There’s lots of back and forth with this proposed tax bill, i.e. economic growth will soar and help to reduce the deficit because more revenue will flow to the government. Or, economic growth cannot sustain itself at the levels the Republicans project (3-5%) for ten years, therefore the deficit will balloon up. And it goes from there.
What I see in all this is people are leery of government and likely believe any tax cut will untimely hurt them. The Republicans see this but are locked in to some kind of a tax cut. So they will pass something and declare victory. Then it will be scrutinized to smithereens by every economist and politician from coast to coast. And every piece of unsavory piece of the new tax code aimed at the poor and middle class will be publicized, and how big corporate and the super-rich made out like bandits. I cannot see one visible, decent tax break for the workers that is in this plan. And my guess is neither can anyone else.
Then, November, 2018 will roll around and the House of Representatives will switch to the Democrats, and maybe even the Senate. That’s my hope anyway.
The analysis is intentionally misleading. there are two plans out there, the house and the Senate plans. The NYT knows with certainty what effect the ultimate plan will have on income taxes, by income band, in the year 2027.
There are a lot of big money cronies who are pressing to prevent any of their goodies from being implemented. So they are going to frighten the populace with the prospect that wage earners earning $10-20,000 will be paying $150 more in income taxes than earners of $10-20,000 in 2017.
Since households earning in those ranges today pay zero in income taxes and get a refund of their payroll taxes via the EITC, that must mean that the EITC doesn't grow as fast as inflation. Instead of $11,000 tax refunds of taxes never paid, they will be receiving only $10,850.
Gruber was correct. If Democrats tell enough lies, their voters will support the most ridiculous programs that no intelligent person would.
1
It is beyond disgusting and infuriating that for the second time now, we average citizens have to watch in fear while the GOP tries to pass legislation that will bring serious harm to millions of us, this time mostly because an entire political party is beholden and bought by wealthy donors.
I've never been politically active, never marched, never been a joiner. But I will be now. I will do everything in my power to make sure no Republican gets elected again. Ever. Because it's clear that the survival not just of us in the middle class, but of our nation as a democracy, now depends on it.
45
I wish someone would do a carefully researched report on how many Republican politicians and their donors genuinely believe in "trickle down" tax theory? it seems to me, capital investment always finds a way if there is a growth opportunity. The idea that somehow giving more capital away via tax cuts = more investment is childish. Investors invest when it is smart to do so; I doubt any of them are saying, boy, if it wasn't for the tax code, then I could really start investing.
If anything, we have too much capital sloshing around the system. Silicon valley is swimming in surplus money. Banks are hoarding reserves.
Trickle down is not just voodoo economics; it is a complete distortion of how capital markets work. So why do the Republicans keep telling this cartoon story?
Donors gotta get paid.
24
"The G.O.P. Is Fooling Itself on Taxes?" A much more accurate headline would be "The G.O.P. Is Fooling Americans on Taxes- Successfully!”
Out in the real America I inhabit, most folks reject as mere liberal talking points that the massive benefits that will accrue to the wealthy (like the President and cabinet) and big business with the passage of the GOP tax bill will be underwitten by higher taxes on low to mid-tier wage earners and significant reductions to Medicare and Social Security benefits.
These folks believe for example that the Estate Tax is truly an onerous death tax that causes the destruction of many small farms and businesses despite the overwhelming data available that incontrovertibly refute that. The daily propaganda bombardment by Fox, Breitbart, Sinclair et al has conditioned and desensitized even the most naturally skeptical among them. Perhaps not all truly believe in the Fox/Breitbart “alternative facts” but they fully accept that any data cited by “the other side” is false and likely “fake news.”
David Leonhart, the NYT Editorial Board and most of the newspapers readers are clearly falling into the same trap that lead them to be surprised at the election results: A reliance on the results of survey data combined with what appears to be willful ignorance of the impact of the right wing disinformation campaign. They will be as perplexed at the GOP tax bill passing into law = as it surely will = as they were when the 45th President was elected.
12
This Tax Bill has exposed Republican Truths:
Condemnation of Past Deficits was a pack of lies.
Reform was never on the agenda.
Only the Little People Pay Taxes.
Republicans expose themselves as
the “Lazy Party”, a downgrade from
Bobby Jindal’s merely “Stupid”.
Both the House and Senate are bringing a Bill to the vote that lacks foresight, intelligence and hard work.
21
This legislation is wrong on too many levels. Let me count the ways: 1) Not a real tax break for Joe America. 2) A makeshift move by a do-nothing Congress for a lying, mysogenistic and pandering to his base President. 3) An utter failure of Republican leadership and followers to stand up to Trump (but a successful pandering, themselves, to the prevaricator-in-chief. 4) A transparent tip of the cap to the big hitters who finance Republicans. 5) A tax cut for people who really don’t need it. 6) A transparent move to weaken ACA. 7) Deflection from all things bad surrounding Trump and his acolytes. There is so much more. I wrote to Senator McCain suggesting that he continue his thoughtful resistance to Trump and the manipulative leadership of his party. I believe he’s our best chance to stop this idiocy.
15
The whole situation is like a very badly written satire.
9
Democracy at work, not so much. Theft by grifters in Congress.
18
"How did Republicans do this to themselves?"
Two words: Citizens United
16
The people who have voted in Republicans and aren't millionaires+ deserve to suffer in a multitude of ways. To them, they should remember how much they loathe women's reproductive rights, LBGTQ people and worship the 2nd Amendment and that should make the cost to them in additional health care expenses and taxes worth it all. I have no sympathy for these people whatsoever. They bought the tea kettle, now they can listen to it whistle.
19
Since the GOP is so zealous about direct democracy, unfiltered by "crooked politicians," how about punting this Tax thing to the voters in 2018?
How about it GOP put your mouth where your money is clean for a change.
9
When Blue States "tax too much," they actually spend this "government money" on STEM education in their public schools, which generates more patents per capita than Red States.
The same principle applies in "taxing too much" for regulations that lower pollution -- leading to longer life-spans; and better law-enforcement, leading to lower crime rates; and better roads, leading to fewer car accidents.
Perhaps inventors can charge MORE for their royalties when their inventions are used in Red States.
http://www.statemaster.com/graph/gov_pat_iss_percap-government-patents-i...
# 1 Delaware: 12.835 per 1,000 people
# 2 Connecticut: 12.822 per 1,000 people
# 3 New Jersey: 10.913 per 1,000 people
# 4 Massachusetts: 10.88 per 1,000 people
# 5 Idaho: 10.428 per 1,000 people
# 6 Minnesota: 9.459 per 1,000 people
# 7 Vermont: 9.009 per 1,000 people
# 8 California: 8.402 per 1,000 people
# 9 New Hampshire: 8.219 per 1,000 people
# 10 Michigan: 8.16 per 1,000 people
# 11 Illinois: 7.284 per 1,000 people
# 12 Ohio: 7.263 per 1,000 people
# 13 New York: 7.247 per 1,000 people
# 14 Pennsylvania: 6.808 per 1,000 people
# 15 Colorado: 6.718 per 1,000 people
# 16 Wisconsin: 6.65 per 1,000 people
# 17 Oregon: 6.423 per 1,000 people
# 18 Rhode Island: 5.959 per 1,000 people
# 19 Indiana: 5.384 per 1,000 people
# 20 Maryland: 5.262 per 1,000 people
6
They are not fooling themselves. They are giving their donors what they want and expect. The success of the Republicans is due to their combination of support from the wealthy and powerful (which makes sense) and from the uninformed lower classes who feed on their dislike of (you name it) blacks, immigrants, "elites" who try to tell them how to live and how they should think, political correctness, and government meddling. So the first group gets the benefit of actual policies and legislation, and the second group gets the benefit of sticking it to all those they don't like. It's not necessary to provide any other benefit to this second group, which is the genius of the Republican approach.
14
"An almost religious devotion to supply-side theory"?
May I revise that somewhat?
"An almost religious devotion to the rich."
A weird analogy comes to mind:
The Swiss Guard. Standing their ground during the French Revolution. Defending the family, the person of King Louis XVI. Brave men, all of them! They were cut to pieces. To a man. Not one escaped.
The present-day Republican party. America's answer to the Swiss Guard. Standing at the portals opening into our own Temples of Great Wealth. Warding off to their dying breath the onslaughts of the poor. The rabble. The moochers. The forty nine percent.
I honestly think--today's Republicans worship the rich.
I honestly think, the prospect of TAXING--of HURTING--of PENALIZING the rich--that prospect fills today's Republicans with horror. Almost--with nausea. In their inmost being (and here I'm thinking of Mr. Norquist), they are crying out, "No! Never that! NEVER THAT!"
We are far beyond the realm of rational decision making--rational public policy--rational anything. I do honestly believe, the Republican devotion to the rich is (as it were) something visceral--inarticulate--unthinking.
AND TOTAL!
More's the pity! For those of us who aren't rich.
Which is to say: the vast majority.
Like me. Or my family. Or my friends. Or. . . ..
(You finish it.)
11
If we are going to borrow $1.5 trillion from our grandchildren, then we should do it to improve our infrastructure so that the grandkids could at least have use of the money, rather than giving it to the .1% and corporations who will keep the money and invest it over seas. No benefit to any regular tax payer there.
15
I hope the Republicans are familiar with the term, "Pyrrhic victory", because either way they go will have the same result, and it couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys : )
11
On the Sunday shows Mick Mulvaney defends the GOP giveaway by comparing dynamic scoring, that the CBO does not take into account, with selling a 100 mugs at $5ea versus this year lowering the cost of the mug to $4ea and selling more. The problem is the cost to make and sell those Republican mugs is $6ea or more. So all they would do is accelerate the deficit. Genius. Even if the mugs cost $3.99ea how many do they need to sell just to break even at the $5ea level.
Using Republican intellectual financial logic, we can spend up a storm on our credit cards this Christmas. The increased economic activity will pay for the added credit card debt, all by itself.
8
This bill was not inspired by a religious devotion to supply-side theory. That devotion is totally dishonest, and no one in the GOP actually believes it.
Republicans in government are a party of, by and for the wealthy. Their goal is tax elimination for the richest entities in societies, full stop. They know as well as everyone else that this bill will explode the deficit and hurt economic growth and the middle class. It is a non-starter with regular people. All of the supply side nonsense is a publicity scam.
Voting for Trump showed that a lot of voters are easily fooled. Even so, most people are going to notice when money disappears from their paycheck. Passing this will be political suicide for the GOP.
9
Ever wonder why DeVos isn't in trouble for leasing private aircraft for her trips? Probably because she uses her own private planes for transportation. OK, she's not traveling on our dime; but, with this new bill she'll be getting a nice tax break for the jet.
The GOP is taking care of it's own.
Hey, 'Club for Growth' Toomey, are your office assitants getting tired of taking anti-tax increase bill calls yet? We're not tired of making them.
6
tax cuts for the wealthy to appease their political donors ?
selfishness is always rule number one - but societies collapse unless good people go out of their way - at a cost to themselves - to ensure other people do the right thing.
in this case the few Republicans who stand up and say 'this is not right' - can be the only difference between good and evil
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men should do nothing.”
from "When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall, one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle."
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2010/12/04/good-men-do/
4
What a harsh joke. I own a small business. From what I've read I doubt very much that I will benefit from any version of the proposed legislation; quite possibly our family taxes (we're an S-Corp) will increase. Want me to hire more employees? That has nothing to do with our tax rates--it has to do with how busy we are selling to our customers. Taking away the deductions for interest and for health care for our employees (we pay 90% of the cost) certainly won't help us. What horrible legislation.
17
I saw Stuart Varney on Fox this morning who said unequivocally that everybody will gain (and he made a point of saying everyone watching). The Trump strategy--lie, say whatever you have to--is now part of Fox's work, and the rest of the Republican apparatus. Lies seem to work, and I fear they will work here.
Where are the Democrats?
7
There are a lot of very intelligent and thoughtful comments regarding this article. Most correctly point out that "trickle down" economics is wildly rejected by experts. Basically we all know that it doesn't deliver on its promises (face it, it's a con). We also know that since Reagan's rise to power in 1981, it has been the mainstay of Republican economic policy. We also know that people continue to empower their elected officials to give the lion share of tax benefits to the wealthy.
It seems that Americans seem unable to grasp the consequences of believing in something that isn't true and, more importantly, believing that they and their children will be better off once the wealthy are handed even more benefits.
It all of this too hard to understand for the average Joe, or are Americans simply willfully ignorant about the way the world works?
12
As long as the wealthy are satisfied, the republicans are happy. Conservatives could care less about the economic or social welfare of the poor and middle class. Most Trump supporters will be shocked when these policies hit their pocketbooks?
5
It is indeed mind boggling to think how low the GOP has sunk. Your colleague Professor Krugman thinks the only way to explain this behavior is to understand that most of the GOP understands that they will lose their job in 2018 or 2020 and the next one on K street will only be available if they do what their future bosses tell them to do now. Pretty cynical but can you think of a better explanation? I cannot.
3
What is a more direct and logical conclusion to the question:
"How did Republicans do this to themselves?"
Simple. This is a political party bought and paid for by billionaire donors. It's sheer corruption. It's shocking to hear Congressman publicly say that their donors are going to shut off the spiggots if they don't pass "tax reform."
This has nothing to do we a belief in trickle-down as an economic principle ... except as a fig leaf for staying in power.
7
It's bad enough that the Republican tax bill would raise taxes for a large segment of the population -- while taxes for the richest are reduced. Even worse is that with the increase in taxes the Republicans are doing cutting or outright eliminating the agencies, programs, and services we need: health care, environmental protection, and education to name three that immediately come to mind. This is foolish -- also corrupt, mean-spirited, short-sighted, and greedy. We see the people in Zimbabwe celebrating the end of the corrupt autocrat Mugabe's time in office, and we envy them!
4
The Republican leadership are desperate to please their big donors and keep the campaign donations coming in. I suppose they think (with some justification) that with enough money, they can convince voters that black is white and that republicans really do care about their constituents. And why not, it's been working for decades!
6
A large percentage of Utah's citizens have seen the outburst of our senior citizen senator mr. hatch in his totally mucked up response to senator brown. What a ton of us folks in Utah don't understand is why our two senators, hatch and lee have lost touch with us. I guess they feel that the greater percentage of utah citizens make between 80 to 100 thousand dollars for the average family of FIVE. Well guess what boys THEY DON'T!!!! So why the need for our two not ready for prime time political hacks desire to push this "tax reform" bill? They haven't seemed to have our interests at heart. Snape out of it gentlemen for the storm is coming for you.
5
The GOP is only fooling their supporters--just like they've been doing for the last 40 years.
8
The G.O.P. isn't fooling itself. It knows exactly what it's doing: Caressing the hands that feed it, namely, the super-rich. It's fooling its constituents, made up largely of the middle class, who will receive virtually no benefit from this tax plan and will suffer from it next decade.
3
3 million jobs under 8 years of George Bush. And that was with two "tax cuts for the job creators." And that does not count jobs lost after the November 2008 subprime meltdown.
10 million jobs and counting under Obama. And that was with the lapse of the tax cut for the job creators and with the "jobs killing Obama care." Actually 16 million jobs but 6 million jobs that came back after the greatest recession since the Depression.
Clinton gave Bush a balanced budget.
Bush gave Obama a whopping $1.1 Trillion deficit in his budget of Oct. 1, 2008. With the Great Recession and tax revenue losses and unemployment expenses, that actual number was $1.4 Trillion!
Obama got this down to $550 Billion.
And wait until we get the bill. Look at the deficit October 1, 2020.
1
I'm retired with an income in the $100K--$200K slot, and not in a high tax state. I could be missing something, but my quick check showed my taxes going up a bit. I'm sure the Republicans writing these tax bills don't care. If they can sell Roy Moore as a Christian, they can sell this turkey as a middle class tax cut. They have paid no political cost for all the damage they have done to the great majority of Americans since 1980. Why does anyone expect that to change?
3
There is a tax cut.
But there is a deficit.
So really they are just putting the bill on our credit cards and the credit cards of our children and grandchildren.
And we really are not getting much of the tax cuts. Just the bill on our credit cards.
All of this after eight years of Republicans scolding about the debt.
This tax cut bill will really hurt the country.
And they wear their flag pins on their lapels.
5
Congressional Republicans are advancing the ball towards the ultimate objective of a single tax rate for everyone -- probably close to 25%. Why should a CEO earning millions pay a higher tax rate than an hourly employee whose work produces the stuff that earns the profits? Cutting taxes on the top earners costs government way less than cutting them for the middle class. And the wealthy are the big contributors to political campaigns, buying favorable laws and regulations. With Republican dominance of government, a flat (or flatter) effective tax rate is the objective, as it was in the Reagan and W administrations. Just keep saying it's a "huge middle class tax cut" and Trump supporters will believe it.
3
If a budget is a moral document, a tax plan is a theological treatise.
We the people are now clearly informed of the theology adhered to by the House and Senate Ways and Means Committees.
That theology is not Christian, however loud the proclamations from behind those closed doors.
3
Every year the Senate reads Washington's "Farewell Address" and every year they ignore most of his advice. One of the most hypocritical is ignoring Washington's advice about factions, many times on the same day as the reading.
"They serve to organize faction; to give it an artificial and extraordinary force; to put in the place of the delegated will of the nation the will of a party, often a small but artful and enterprising minority of the community; and, according to the alternate triumphs of different parties, to make the public administra- tion the mirror of the ill concerted and incongruous projects of faction, rather than the organ of consis- tent and wholesome plans digested by common councils and modified by mutual interests."
They should stop worrying about their bases and donors and start working for all the people.
1
The proposed tax cut for the working and middle-class segments of the electorate is a complete fraud.
We already knew that tens of millions of Americans will be paying more federal income taxes the day the bill goes into law and the column tells us that the remaining millions of Americans will see the segments providing the minimal tax cuts are temporary, dwindling over the first ten years and completely disappearing after ten years.
Of course, the tax cuts for pass-through businesses who receive the massive cuts in federal taxes are permanent.
1
This act is the biggest proof yet that we no longer have a democracy based on the will of the people but we have an oligarchy controlled by special interest groups. This is one of many policies that all the polls show the American people disapprove of and their voices are ignored to service the needs of the special interest groups. This act and the previous Repub. health care have the lowest approval of any policies in the last 25 years. Will it stop this from happening?
4
How does repealing the estate tax create jobs and increase wages for the working middle class.
5
One can only hope the Senate bill won't pass.
At this juncture tax cuts for the rich are counterproductive. What we need is a tax-hike on the highest income households, say that make over around $6 million, rather on the top 0.1% household incomes to about 50%. If this unlikely tax-hike is impossible, leave everything as it is
8
Our family income is $150,000. We are a family of 3, living in a high-tax, high-expense area where I have a job. There is no change in our tax bracket under the House bill. What changes is that we will be taxed a second time on the same earned income -- the pre-tax deduction for state and local income tax is being eliminated -- and we cannot deduct our property taxes, which are significantly higher than the $10,000 deduction the House will allow (no deduction is allowed under the Senate bill). Our son is on the autism spectrum, which comes with significant out-of-pocket medical expenses that will no longer be deductible. Though our son is relatively high-functioning, his journey through college has been slow, and there will no longer be any tax relief for college tuition. So, I anticipate a significantly higher federal income tax bill. So, where is the tax relief for this middle-class family?
19
Some things cannot be fully analyzed and explained with a graph. For instance just the provision of repealing the individual mandate remains confusing. I see persons opposed to the repeal saying it represents a tax increase because without the penalty 13 million people will lose health insurance and the subsidy which pays for it. They will also lose the cost of whatever their health premiium is. On the other the supporters of repeal say the US will save the total amount of subsidies for 13 million people. Those claims depend on a similar assumption which underlies both--everyone below a certain income level is assumed to terminate their health insurance solely because the mandate and its tax penalty have been removed. Does this truly make sense? Someone who finds him/herself with a serious illness or a an ill family member is not likely to terminate health insurance, lower the deficit and become uninsured. A pregnant woman is not likely to do so, either. There are many other circumstances in which repeal of the mandate might have results different from the claims of both sides of this debate.
And this is only one provision of the tax code. We have to demand more information, more expanation and fewer sound bites from both sides.
You're right that those people you've talked about will not want to terminate their health insurance. They won't have any choice. If keeping it means they'll be homeless, and/or not able to afford food, medicines, and other necessities, they will keep it till they can't afford it anymore, then it'll go. We'll have a good deal more traffic in our local ER, which
would be better served in a proper clinic/ doctor's office. More cheaply, too, in the end. Thing is, you have to value those lives more than a tax cut for ultra-wealthy people, and those ultra-wealthy people don't. Remember Leona Helmsley? "Only the little people pay taxes"? We, the "little people", are disposable to the ultra-wealthy; existing only to work as cheaply as possible, and, once that limit has been reached, to die as quickly as possible. That is social Darwinism, which never left, just kept quiet till now, when it's apparently acceptable again.
4
I am once again disgusted at the removal of a carefully thought out comment about Rex Tillerson, Exxon Mobil, Chad, and our adventures abroad, which I believe had hundreds of votes. This is getting all too common; it was here a couple of hours ago. The NYT algorithms and interns seem to have someone who is removing comments for political reasons. There was nothing offensive in the comment, but it was rather sharply phrased and presented some facts that some here might like to know about the Trump Muslim ban, Chad, and our bad history with foreign adventures that destroy neighborhoods and enable terrorists.
4
Oops, it was elsewhere in the state department article. I hope somebody *does* remove this one, made in error. Serious sincere apologies (though good comments are being removed, this one was not).
3
The Republicans swear that business tax cuts "pay for themselves because the economy grows"
Do the math: The economy was of the order of $18.57 Trillion in 2016.
The tax cut bill takes the corporate rate of 35% down to 20%, or a cut of 42.86%.
In order to "make up" the loss of 42.86% of taxes from corporations, the profits of those corporations would have to grow by 133% (or 1/.4286 - 1). A 133% increase is MORE than doubling those profits. For the record, since the depths of the recession 8 years ago in 2009, corporate profits have only roughly doubled. Many companies are already making large profits, at or close to their record highs.
In the present global economy, with low cost labor in foreign countries competing with us, it is difficult to raise prices. Profits usually grow by selling larger volumes. Doubling the size of a company to double capacity takes time. Mergers add no capacity, but just change the owner.
Does anyone really believe that huge corporations like Facebook, Google, Walmart, ExxonMobil and GM are going to immediately double their profits? How about much smaller "mom and pop" operations? In my opinion, such growth, while possible for a few extremely small and extremely fortunate organizations might be possible, it certainly is not what anyone would expect for our mature economy as a whole in the short term.
If you think this analysis is mistaken, kindly present a cogent reason why you disagree with me. (I will not be holding my breath.)
15
My bet: less than a 50/50 chance the bill will make it out of congress. This, combined with the presence of Trump&co., I think, spells the end of the GOP.
10
Why can't the R's decrease the huge benefit to corporations and shift that money to the middle class? Corporations really don't need tax cuts in the current economy. The middle class does. Also, the corporate cut should NOT be permanent.
10
They COULD. They don't WANT TO. How can they get back to the Gilded Age feudalism they have missed so much since FDR, if they don't destroy the middle class? Watch: in a couple of years, assuming 2018 can be gerrymandered/vote-suppressed successfully, someone will gasp in oh-so-great alarm that the DEFICIT IS TOO HIGH. Horrors! we must cut Social Security, any Medicare/Medicaid that are left, education, infrastructure...But not corporate tax cuts.
Not rich people's tax cuts. By NO means, reinstate the Estate, er, sorry, the DEATH TAX.
None of this is accidental, and it isn't recent.
1
The repubs are in no way fooling themselves, with very few exceptions. They know exactly what they are doing, and the ones who are fooled are their supporters who will vote for them as long as they continue to beat up on gays, blacks, Mexicans, and women
31
To West Coast complainers here - You FAILED to pressure your Republican Representatives to vote against their bill.
In NY and NJ, we convinced our GOP Reps to vote against. You didn't.
I emailed and snail-mailed 350 neighbors in our Village to write and call our rep. I stuffed 120 envelopes.
You didn't.
Our GOP Rep voted against. Your West Coast Reps voted in favor.
How dare you come here to complain.
11
Well, I live on the West Coast and although I have not been complaining in response to this specific article, you surely must recognize that US Representatives and Senators tend to IGNORE comments from those not in their districts (obviously not true of Senators). Where I live there are no Republicans in Congress. Our local Representatives are reliably opposed to these bills. The Republican members of Congress in California represent primarily rural and irrationally conservative districts. It is certainly true that many of these citizens will be harmed by bills their reps vote for, but I for one cannot alter that fact. People in this country have been voting against their economic interests, for Republicans, for years. It turns out that more than economics may be motivating this behavior. Meanwhile everyone will pay the price.
11
It is not the West Coast voters fault. Our Republicans don’t represent the same class of people that NY and NJ Republicans do. Ours are rural and farm area representatives, and their constituents are more likely to be Trump voters.
We had no influence on those House members. On the coast, almost all of our Congress members are already Democrats. Of the few Republicans, Issa and Rohrabacher voted against it, so the pressure is working where it can.
1
3 voted against it and 11 voted for it
The gop also wants to preserve the badges of servitude in the form of confederate monuments. To omit that is malpractice. Yet you omit it regularly
4
"How did the republicans do this to the selves?"
I don't need to read this article. Republicans are universally morally corrupt, liars, hypocrites, cheats, greedy, self-centered, selfish, willfully ignorant or con artists. That's how they did it to themselves - and are going to destroy our nation in the process.
13
It appears that with the Liar-in-Chief in the White House, elected Republicans feel that they too can get away with the most blatant and ridiculous lies conceivable. To a certain extent, they may be right about that.
12
Two things (among many others) that raised an eyebrow for me were: a). John Bussey, an associate editor of the WSJ, was at the WSJ CEO Council event with Gary Cohn and asked the CEOs in the room, “If the tax reform bill goes through, do you plan to increase investment — your companies’ investment — capital investment,” and requests a show of hands. Only a few hands went up which left Cohn to ask sheepishly, “Why aren’t the other hands up?”.......and b). Adopting a territorial tax system because it actually encourages companies to shift their investment, employment and operations out of the United States, or give up their U.S. residence through a corporate ownership inversion.
Companies aren’t “full employment” operations. They go where taxes, labor, and other costs maximize profitability. Also, if the majority of this tax “reform” goes to the rich, how does that help consumer spending? Up till now, the average large corporate “effective” tax rate was about 15%. How does dropping to 20% (with no deductions) cause an explosion in investment? .....and when this doesn’t work out as planned, guess where the GOP will try to make up the difference: Social Security, Medicare, etc., which we boomers (including my wife and I) need.
15
" ... deal a major blow to Obamacare ... cut Medicare and Medicaid ... " Add in the tax cuts for the rich to produce imaginary trickle down, voodoo economics, and you've got the same old smoke and mirrors that Mr. Ryan has been pushing for years. "Ryan has always been a con man — someone playing the part of Serious, Honest Conservative, but never doing a very good job of it. His budgets were always fraudulent in obvious ways, full of trillion-dollar magic asterisks and spectacular evasions." - Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize in Economics, NYTimes
12
Please label the horizontal axis of your graph. Without it, it's less than useful - less than useful because you may be making an important point or you may be resorting to alarmist cartooning, but we won't know which.
Maybe these congress guys have somebody to do their taxes for them, but the rest of us do our own taxes, and while we may be stupid enough to be fooled by Fox, we are not stupid enough to be fooled by the "What you owe" line at the end of our 1040s.
15
Very well said! Let's hope enough people in those deep red states pay attention and wake up the awful reality of the republican party!
3
They know exactly where they will find the money. Guess what's next? Elimination of Medicaid,Medicare, and Social Security. They take that, then what's next? Oh that's right. Borrow from the Arabs and Chinese. After that, it won't matter. We'll need to download Duolingo and learn Arabic and Mandarin.
8
Now that I am in the twilight of my career and relatively wealthy, I am looking forward to the big tax cut. After all, taxes are about me, me, me. Donnie Dotard and I will be hoarding our savings for the big payoff avoiding the "death tax" and driving our golf carts on the greens till we die just to spit in the eye of all you suckers. Go Donnie!!
7
Republicans have traditionally been able to get away with any number of anti-people deals because most of us either weren't paying attention or just didn't care. We cast an alphabet vote for the letter R or D. A candidate's position on the issues was not a consideration as much as a firm handshake or nice smile. "Things" moved along, nothing much really changed, god was in his heaven and most all was right with the world. Then came Trump and the day the music died. Now, many more of us are paying attention. Cspan is the favorite soap opera. SNAFU is now the new normal and if you aren't concerned, you're not normal. Muller may save us but, given the rate of decline, there may not be anything left to save. Trump is the culmination of years of apathy combined with a dedicated crop of angry, uninformed people. It's a self inflicted wound even if you didn't vote for him. What put us here will get us out. So, stay angry, keep watching, keep protesting and when the next opportunity arrives, let's clean the stable.
11
The mention of “religious” devotion to trickle-down economics brings to mind the recent , mufti-year, Kansas experiment. This was a full-throat ed, all-out application of this theory, which ended in disaster.
Education ,infrastructure and the general al welfare suffered major damage. Finally the electorate and legislature rebelled, with their cult leader Sam Brownback in disgrace.
Faced with this irrefutable example, Republicans press on. Surely, many of them know that they are pedaling a false theory.
How can tey sleep at night?
12
Bob Corker and Jeff Flake have done nothing but talk, and both both gladly supported depriving millions of health care.
Expect nothing.
20
RYAN SHRUGS!
The fundamental flaw in all GOP economic policy is that it's based on the misanthropic philosophy of yet another Russian, Ayn Rand:
The wealthy, talented & powerful are the most oppressed minority.
Enough is never enough for me and mine.
Might makes right.
*******************************************
BTW:In 1976 Ayn Rand enrolled in Social Security & Medicare. Social programs that she opposed.
14
To complainers here from the West Coast - YOU FAILED to make your Republican Representatives vote against this bill.
In NY and NJ, we convinced our GOP Reps to vote against. You didn't.
I emailed and snail-mailed 352 neighbors in our Village to write and call our rep. I stuffed 122 envelopes.
You didn't.
Our GOP Rep voted against. Your West Coast Reps voted in favor.
How dare you come here to complain.
1
Let Them Eat Fake Cake says Trump.
This is beyond absurd. Maybe Mnunchin’s wife can pose in a Marie Antoinette wig with pearls and a plastic Trump Tower poked in it.
11
Party over country, shame on the Republicans...
7
Yawn. Just one more outrageous story about the morally bankrupt Republicans and their insistence on failed economic theories. That’s some strong Koolaid they re drinking.
5
Anyone who isn't rich who votes Republican is stupid. Of course the Republicans going to come after your benefits. Of course they're going to make themselves richer. And no, that isn't going to help ordinary people like you and me at all. And they're also never going to end abortion or bring jobs back to America.
Isn't that obvious by now?
7
Stop framing this dreck as a win/lose for the Republicans! That is the least of this important, dreadful bill.
3
We see the truth about Republicans reflected in this tax bill. The Republicans are the tool of the super rich. But the super rich comprise a small percentage of the electorate. Republicans then trot out a variety of sucker bait to lure enough votes to win: gun rights, anti-abortion, anti-Muslim, anti-minorities, anti-government (healthcare, regulations, federal lands) and add a lot of flag waving and bible thumping. Trump, like a used car salesman promised great paying jobs, great healthcare and anything else the people wanted to hear. At the same time they want to load the courts with judges that will protect the oligarchy and take away our freedoms. The people of our country have so much potential but we are being squashed by greed.
6
Fooling themselves?
Not a chance.
Their eyes are as wide open and keen-sighted as their campaign coffers
5
Not only is the bill a tax increase on the middle class and a giant giveaway to corporations and the very wealthy, it also includes a giant bit of pandering in the form of defining tax benefits allowed for the "unborn child". Even in a tax bill the Republicans can't help themselves from attacking a woman's right to choose. It's a disingenuous piece of legislation created by deceptive people.
5
I am old and not rich but I could pay more taxes. But Republicans are proposing I pay more taxes to make the rich richer and the poor a little bit poorer. Why would any decent person support such a plan?
20
The Republican party and its tax-code proposal are excellent examples of what's called the British schoolboy's definition of faith: "steadfastly believing wot you know ain't really true." To say that the tax bill is fiscally responsible and will benefit all Americans is patently fallacious. It is not necessary to have a PhD in Economics or to belong to Mensa to know this. It is truly frigntening to watch our congresspersons--whom we the people elected--set us on a path whose consequences are unforseeably dark. All one can do in this moment is call and write, and pray. As Ghandi said, "Do something, even if it's insignificant."
4
Amazing. It was just a short time ago when the r's were screaming about the deficit. Now they can't add to it fast enough by buying gifts for the wealthy. The two-faced hypocrisy that is so prevalent in Congress is thick enough to cut with a dull knife. I imagine the selling of sleep aids is lucrative in Washington DC. The R's have plenty of reasons not to sleep well at night.
3
Collins was just interviewed, saying that she can support the senate plan with "some changes". And Leonhardt, in calling the plan "dreadful" must not understand the Republican agenda: transfer as much wealth upward as possible.
The Democrat's agenda: transfer wealth upward only to the extent your base will tolerate (Democratic party supporting media can be trusted to suppress the truth about their party's upward transfer policies).
4
If the tax bill passes, the Democratic Party will have its central issue for the next two elections: Stop the Giveaway to the Rich and the Corporations. Why destroy Medicare and Social Security and mortgage our childrens’ future to make the richest even richer? Overturning the law won’t be possible until 2020, when we free ourselves from Trump, but 2018 is the path to a Congress that represents the 99.5% of Americans who can’t afford buying a politician.
The tax bill rests on the hideously fraudulent promise of economic growth that will benefit all Americans. Because Republicans lack any program besides reversing the social, economic and environmental progress of the 20th century, their hold on power relies on repaying plutocrat donors with tax breaks at the expense of a functioning government, and mobilizing their voters with fear and resentment of other Americans’ ancestries, religions, and lifestyles while cynically lying to them about how much better off they will be with less government. The campaign to overturn this tax bill can be a major step toward restoring America’s future.
21
I am that guy who was failed by the system. In 2007, I opened an S Corp and built an office, a business and a good reputation. My personal salary was about 60K. My total taxation was about 25 to 28% each year.
How could I go on with that tax rate while trying to pay for a family of four? Do large corporations pay a real 25%? I don't think so.
We have a problem. Alot of talk about helping the middle class and zero clarity from the GOP bill. Why can't these politicians write a 3 page bill clearly showing that they are keeping thier promise to help the middle class? Both democrats and Republicans refuse to present a clean bill that educated Americans can understand.
Lastly, infrastructure costs money. Real money. The rich must pony up and we must stop talking about trickle down. He process is simple. Establish the money we need to run a modern nation. Spend two years working that out. Then tax so people don't get injured. That's policy. That's fairness. That's intellect at work.
16
Let them pass it.
Then push toward 2018 with the most overwhelming, on-message information effort in the history of American politics.
The Radical Republicans just robbed you!
Put that chart of tax increases and cuts on an index card and let every Democratic politician carry it at all times. Pull it out for constituents. Hold it up for the camera at every interview.
Here's what THEY just did to you!
(by their own analysis!)
Hang this burning tire around their neck till election day 2018.
And promise immediately to undue the Radical Republicans's damage the minute the people vote them out of power.
"You were just robbed. Here's our plan to fix it."
17
Great idea—but all I hear from my Democratic party lately is “give us money so we can win”.
It’s about the votes—-or so I thought.
My observations will not be as erudite as some but it seems that the 'tyranny of the urgent' whereby urgency trounces long term, more critical needs has morphed into the 'tyranny of satisfying donors.'
There are so many reasons this plan is an abomination not the least of which is that it is never good to cut taxes when the economy is thriving. Wise fiscal management would defer to saving tax reductions for a rainy day.
But what constitutes a rainy day is changing and there will never enough disaster management funding to cover what is happening and will continue to happen. Not to mention our sadly neglected infrastructure the costs of which are only increasing.
At a moment when we should be channeling our once wonderful ingenuity into positioning ourselves for the future, Republicans have chosen fealty to their donors (and perhaps) Russia over their elected roles and stewards for us and for our country.
It's easy to be so recklessly cavalier when things are relatively stable but already we will never disentangle ourselves from the damage that is being wrought by fools, sycophants and snake oil economics.
10
The late, great conservative economist Herb Stein used to say that Americans are not really overtaxed but they just don't like to pay taxes. We would be much better off if Congress actually raised taxes on the wealthy and used the revenue to tackle the many problems that still face the country.
14
It should be astonishing that Republicans in Congress can come up with economic policies that will harm so many of their own constituents. Sadly, it isn't astonishing, because this plan is driven by the only constituents to whom they listen: wealthy donors. This has become nakedly apparent because a few Congressmen have exposed the ugly truth.
Welcome to the donocracy, which is now our official form of government.
11
They are counting on Democrats doing something that makes people angry.
The bill is nothing more than the Republicans taking money from the middle class (tax increases), funneling that money to the wealthy (tax cuts), so that the wealthy can use that money to make a campaign donation to the Republicans.
This bill is the Republicans moving your middle class money into their pockets for their campaigns. Using the wealthy as the middle man.
Any questions?
12
The GOP is fooling no one but those of the middle-class that voted for Trump and actually believed the party’s rhetoric.
4
Here's an easy talking point.
The Republican tax plan is simple.
Trump gets a tax cut.
You get a tax increase.
A simple statement.
Imagine that repeated a million times in the next year till the midterms.
Repetition is power.
16
The GOP never cared about their base for their true base is the donor class of billionaires and corporations. They know they have a base that can be easily misled and outright lied too without question. They have a powerful ally/lackey in Fox News where they are painting this tax bill as a win-win for everyone involved. They keep the base distracted and placated by giving them guns, religion, and hate against anyone whom they deem inferior i.e. gays, blacks, and liberals. You can show the base on the Right and other Trumpians charts, spreadsheets, and numbers that they will be hit hard by this charlatan of a tax cut bill. And the only response out of their mouth will be 'fake news.' Trump and his cronies have effectively brainwashed and inoculated their base from the truth of outside information.
10
In short: Trickle down doesn't work. It has never worked. There is no reason for it to work. What makes you think the wealthy are going to let one single coin escape them to "trickle"?
8
I look at the Republican tax plan as legislative strategy equivalent to a "Balloon Payment" in financing.
In financing, a balloon payment allows the borrower to use the money until a fixed date. At this point, the borrower will have no further use for the money or property. The borrower can either sell the secured asset or walk away from it.
In the case of the tax bill, the GOP representatives and senators can support it in the here-and-now. Many of the representatives in Congress have been there forever and have unbelievable pensions. These politicians have had a fun ride, made tons of money and when the political equivalent of the due date of the balloon payment arrives...ELECTION DAY...they will mostly be in their late 50s or...early 80s. They can comfortably fade into the sunset...or K Street.
6
As a tax practitioner for almost four decades. I have been following the tax reform debate with interest, seeing much that I do not like. However, my point is not one made in agreement (or disagreement) with the author. Rather, it is to voice my tiredness with economic columnists (or TV talking heads) purporting to be “tax experts” by quoting statistics of various organizations that really provide no fine-point studies, critical to such a comparative analysis of tax reform.
The unvarnished truth is that the differences and analyses in many cases between current and proposed law are far too fine point to be comprehended by politicians (e.g. see Sens. Brown and Hatch the other night) or by economic commentators. To this, I note that data from the Kaiser Family Foundation is given great weight. So, I invite you to proceed to their site and put “alternative minimum tax” or “qualified dividend" (in quotes) into the search box. You will see that no results appear having anything to do with taxation. Such data is basic to any sort of tax analysis, and if omitted, will invariably lead to a flawed conclusion.
In closing, I am reminded of the story when Leo Durocher was managing the N.Y. Giants baseball team, and his wife (actress Laraine Day) was yelling in her box seat. He came out of the dugout and yelled for her to sit down, saying “Its ok to yell, but if you don’t know what you’re yelling about, you don’t have the right to yell”. Leo, you were right then (and more so, now).
3
But the article isn't using materials from the KFF; it's using the TCP's findings. If the analysis is too fine to sift through then perhaps you, as a tax practitioner, could enlighten readers with what it is that you find to your liking (or disliking) in this latest plan. As it stands, while your post is well-written, it comes across like you're sitting off to the side, softly clucking your tongue.
4
Kaiser Family does health analyses, not taxation. Try plugging in "individual mandate," and skipping the quotes.
And one hardly needs fine points to understand what the GOP is doing: they're stealing. There are no "fine points," in these Bills; just pickpocketting with a scoop shovel.
5
Why was there no talk of a carbon tax? Was there? You would think that a CT would have at least been debated. If they added a little one that would have at least put some lipstick on this pig of a bill. This is unbelievable.
4
So....did Trump lie when he was campaigning? Wasn't his thing populism and being all for the middle class? I wonder what would have happened if he had just stuck with that plan? Oh, that's right. The Kochs and Mercers and Adelsons, et al would have been plenty upset. Can't have that, what was I thinking!
Yeah, Republicans, go ahead and do it. 2018's coming right up.
10
The problem with pinning one's hopes on 2018 is that these tax cuts don't take effect until 2019...so the poorly informed or not yet impacted by the tax cut plan will not be as motivated in mid terms.
2
The Republican "strategy" to feverishly pass a tax bill, regardless of its provisions and long-term electoral consequences, is comparable to the home-crazed renter who lies and misrepresents during the entire mortgage application process, only to find himself foreclosed months later when he cannot afford the payments on his cherished dwelling. Let these jackals shoot themselves in both feet. They will eventually pay a steep price!
9
speak for yourself, John -
the Republican tax "reform" will hurt us all, in the short term and in the long run. should it become law in some form, it will take years, perhaps decades, to ammend and get past its depredations.
of course the lawmakers will suffer, but they'll drag the rest of us along for the ride.
and for what end? just to appease a handful of special interest donors and demonstrate to their base they can get something - anything, even something terrible - done while they hold all branches hostage?
these crooks may be great at politics but they are terrible at governing.
4
There should be no tax legislation of any kind until Trump releases his taxes.
35
The GOP wants to “ cut taxes for businesspeople and the top bracket based on what can only be called religious devotion to supply-side theory.”
Just who are those with this zeal for tax cuts? It is the bonkers billionaires that pay for the re-election of their lackeys in Congress. The venal GOP Congress that mindlessly serves these madmen has to go!!
14
Don't be counting Ron Johnson as a no vote. He will flip. Take it to the bank.
4
The GOP can read the handwriting on the wall (for those who don't remember the Book of Daniel, it translates to "You have been weighed in the balance and found wanting"). King Donald Belzhazzar and his nobles are enjoying the feast, but know deep, deep down that the Medes and the Persians (the Democrats and the Independents) are at the electoral gates and that they will be overthrown in the next three years, with most of their power taken away next year.
So, this is their final chance to make off with the gold, take it to the Cayman Islands or wherever, and then fly off on their private jets while the rest of us have the task of restoring the ruins they left behind. (If you followed the original story, Cyrus the Great then allowed the Jews, and all other conquered peoples, to return to their homes or to stay in Babylon, one of the few Biblical happy endings.)
3
And yet republicans will still vote to reelect these politicians.
6
This is a question rather than a comment: If the Republican Party tax bill becomes law will that trigger a 25% cut to Medicare?
5
A $497 B cut to Medicare is written in. What you may be referring to is the additional $25B cut that will occur. By eliminating the ACA mandate for individual coverage, revenue derived from this penalty is partially utilized to stabilize Medicare, extending its solvency by a few years. Take that away and you have further cuts to Medicare. Also in the works are cuts in benefits to Medicare. We haven't seen the list yet because Repubs haven't shared it. Where else will Republicans get the offsetting revenue to permanent tax cuts for those in the top .01%?
2
I think that perhaps you mean the GOP is deluding itself on taxes, and trying to fool its base at the same time.
3
"Gop delucing itself and trying to fool its base"...Isn't this the standard operating plan for Republicans? And, regretably, they have been very successful at both.
1
"Do the right thing?" Do desperate people act like that?
2
We don't need tax cuts...we need infrastructure spending! We need a New Deal approach ...put people to work fixing bridges and highways. People who have money spend it. That will help the business owners more than any tax cut ever could.
The one percenters, and humpty trumpy's family, do not need any more money from the rest of us! It has already cost the taxpayers...you and me, remember...a small fortune to have him squatting in our White House.
21
Obama recognized that in '09 and proposed an infrastructure plan. He could not get Republicans to support it. Suddenly, it has become a new idea - a "jobs" plan! Really? After people have already lost jobs and homes in the Great Recession? Better late than never?
1
Er, not quite. Instead, less confiscatory rates for all taxpayers are being paid for by removing some benefits of mortgage interest deductions on multiple properties - used extensively by wealthy blue state residents - and by similarly curtailing the deductions of high state and local taxes - a phenomenon found only in high tax blue states and used, once again, predominately by wealthy, liberal hypocrites. Gee. Life must be tough in the canyons of wall street, the lush, manicured, Connecticut horse country, where domestic staff is totally -ahem - "undocumented", the shore paradises of Westhamton Beach, where every storm season Federal and NYS tax dollars replenish poorly engineered PRIVATE beaches for the - you guessed it - wealthy liberal Hamtonites who give generously to the graft machines of blue state governance. Those poor souls! Well, as one of their predecessor ilk remarked, "let them eat cake".
1
In addition to the tax deduction exclusions you cite, there is the ominous one that eliminates the medical deduction. This is going to really hit our seniors hard and will trickle down to their children who will have to care for them...Savings are going to be stripped and people past the age of earning income are vulnerable at a point in time where they have the least ability to make change. Personal debt is already increasing as wages and benefits for working people are not keeping pace with income growth, despite people working harder, more jobs, and trying to save.
2
I guess people whose strong suit is logic - this author surely among them - CANNOT adjust to what appears to be the new reality of "Don't bother me with facts. We need someone in the White House who 'knows what's best' for the country and gets it implemented."
No, that's not MY world-view, but the election proves that there's at least 45% of the voting public who feels that way.
Every so often, there's a game-changer - usually, sadly, not much more than a phrase, be it "It's the economy" or "We've got to keep rapists out of the country." ... Most of us left of center view the country as either trying to get over pneumonia - I'm sure some would find "cancer" a better metaphor - but people like Mr. Leonhardt are whistling in the dark at this point.
His closing line, "[Republican senators" may as well do the right thing" is akin to less influential people bemoaning, "I was SO hoping for a 70-degree Thanksgiving." ... The combination of a rabid "base" and the exigencies of fund-raising, always (for most) focusing on the NEXT election ... make it simply impossible for them to "do the right thing."
Ask them to change parties! PRECISELY as likely to transpire.
Many of us now feel that these are times like the '60's, when the best (maybe ONLY) hope is that things get so bad that we somehow get 60 Democratic Senators, a Democratic President and House ... AND Ruth BG somehow outlives Clarence Thomas. If you see it this way, this tax bill is a small price to pay - and "helpful!"
4
If the Republicans don't pass their tax abomination, their big-money donors will cut them off, and if they do pass it, their previous voters will pull the lever for someone else.
Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch. I can't wait for the midterms
6
They are NOT even attempting to fool themselves. They are only fooling their " uneducated " base. As usual. Please Proceed, GOP.
6
Why are Susan Collins and John McCain and Bob Corker again making everyone sweat? If this bill is terrible and against regular order they should just say so now instead of making these cryptic comments. Doing the right thing shouldn’t be this hard and they deserve no praise if this bill justifiably dies.
8
Let's face it. The Republicans are basically economic dunces. Those that know better are economic cowards. It's time for this country to wake up to the really incompetent people we have been electing to important offices, including the criminal in the white house.
5
The thing that gets me is how in your face the GOP is with tax cuts for the wealthy. The don't even pretend anymore and neither do the businesses.
Business isn't reinvesting that money in job growth. They do as much as possible with less flesh and blood. The only growth they care about is the bursting portfolios of themselves and shareholders.
I am not exaggerating to say I'm weeping for my beloved country. Look at what's become of us. This past year has been tearing our country apart. Every day, it gets worse. Every day, we settle for less of our freedom, less of our equality, less from men and women swearing an oath to represent the people of the United States. All of us. Not just rich, white Christian men, the Kochs.
They don't count our votes, they don't respect any other religions. Except Jews because they vote. They don't care if we have jobs. They don't care about women's bodies as much as they preach. But abortion sends the base into a frenzy so they don't notice another small hospital closing.
We have terrible infrastructure, terrible public education, were involved in 16 years of war with nothing to show for it.
We can't even respect ourselves enough to say "I know we may have to work together but all bets are off if you ever try to mess with any election even dogcatcher. Now we have a President who has taken the side of a foreign dictator over our intelligence agencies. It's like watching a beautiful racehorse, so magnificent, go limp and finally put down.
6
With few exceptions, the right wing nuts don't believe in supply side trickle down economics. They believe in huge tax cuts for the rich which will enable them down the road to dismantle social programs which help the poor and the middle class.
10
No, the Republicans are not fooling themselves, they are doing what they always do---fool their constituents--who appear to love being fooled.
7
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” Upton Sinclair.
“My donors are basically saying, ‘Get it (tax “reform”) or don’t ever call me again.’” Chris Collins R-NY District 27.
What more needs to be said?
7
You are assuming that middle class Republican voters will understand what is being done to them. Conservatives I see on social media are providing (inaccurate, to be sure) figures that "prove" that the middle class gains more than the rich from the Senate bill.
I remember back when Obama cut taxes temporarily, and over 85% of Americans thought he had raised them. That's what the polls indicated, and it's what I heard from people. You can't fool all the people all the time, but the Republicans seem to be able to fool enough of them, all the time.
7
I wonder how many understand that the Senate's Joint Committee on Taxation is composed of 6 Republicans and 4 Democrats? It is not non-partisan such as the CBO or the Tax Policy Center, therefore, the fact that even their own internal committee reports that this will be a tax increase for those earning less than $75K/yr should be warning enough. Know which sources are legitimate and which are cooking the books.
2
Krugman has it right. Look at the results of interim elections. Look at the Republican office holders resigning in droves rather than face costly losing battles. The Republicans see the writing on the wall and have retreated into full-bore submission to the donor class at the expense of everyone else including their base. Goodies to billionaires in the hope that will pay off when they leave office. No pretense at all anymore that it’s anything else.
Really, it was always that way but the Republicans could count on rallying the base with racist taunts and support for guns. Apparently the gun makers are losing money now. Can you imagine? If they get this budget and tax giveaway through it’s time for marches across the country, building support for a tsunami in 2018.
6
In reality passing this plan will be a bigger problem for the GOP than having it fail. It is so blatantly a giveaway to the rich at the cost of blowing up the national debt that its passage (when nothing else could pass) would cost them dearly with their base. I know a lot of people who will stay home in the midterm elections if this "tax reform" actually pass.
3
This may well become the first time that many long-time supporters get a clear picture of what is driving the Republican agenda. Let us hope that they accept what they may now clearly see.
6
If they knew what the right thing was, they may have the opportunity to do it. They don't know what the right thing is.
1
The Trump GOP tax bills smell funny. No, not literally. The bills are remarkably unpopular and cut taxes for those who are doing well: corporations and the ultra rich. The losers in this bill are, well, pretty much everyone else. Such terrible legislation, however, passed the GOP House and could win in the Senate. God knows Trump would sign it, since the bill is tailored to cut his taxes.
We all have to ask why? Why does such a terrible bill stand a chance of passing? Why does the GOP support it when their own voters hate it? The answer is sadly obvious. The GOP is owned, lock stock and barrel, by its wealthy donors and its members of Congress put their interest before us all.
We have reached full kleptocracy, folks.
6
Nothing was more laughable -- or hypocritical -- than to see Orrin Hatch spouting his humble beginnings and his lifelong commitment to improve the lot of the working class -- while trying to defend the tax bill in his shouting match with Sherrod Brown. Huge tax cuts in both the House and Senate versions are permanent for corporations and the wealthiest 1%, more modest cuts are temporary for the less well off. The only loopholes that have been eliminated are those that favor higher education and allow the middle class to deduct SALT and property taxes. Corporate loopholes remain. And the cost to our deficit will of course be offset by cuts in Medicaid, Medicare and ultimately Social Security. The GOP is intent on making our country a corporate kleptocracy.
5
"...trickle-down true believers..."
Trickle down is a key moral basis of capitalism. And while its Democratic officeholder critics cherry pick examples purporting to "prove" it doesn't work, those same critics offer huge tax incentives to lure businesses to their states and cities. Howard Dean did that while governor of Vermont. And countless governments across the country are doing the same thing to lure Amazon's second headquarters. The idea is that Amazon has billions of dollars of investment and 50,000 jobs to offer the winning city or county. If that's not trickle down, what is?
Let’s dispel with this fiction that Republicans don’t know what they’re doing. They know exactly what they’re doing.
Giving the biggest tax breaks to the people who need them least, corporations and the already super wealthy.
The same people who drafted the Kansas giveaway to the .1% tax plan worked on this bill.
This tax bill is like the Holy Grail for Republicans, something they have wanted for a very long time (elimination of estate tax, permanent corporate tax cut) regardless of what the corrupt octogenarian swamp monster Orrin Hatch wants us to believe.
And this "hastily written, deficit-busting bill" is the first punch in a one-two to cut entitlements.
Their "plan" is that a several years down the road (when most of them are conveniently no longer in office, they will be forced to confront the ridiculously massive federal debt they created.
And since raising taxes is such an anathema to a large chunk of the red-leaning population, their only other recourse will be to drastically cut spending.
Classic "starve the beast" blueprint.
Medicaid first, then Medicare.
And what is up with the Democrats? Their silence is quite deafening.
While Republicans keep on moving this atrocious bill forward, the peons are distracted with Roy Moore and Russia revelations.
Sad.
4
While my wife and I would benefit from the tax plan, albeit a tiny benefit, I cannot support a plan that would so obviously benefit the well off while hurting those with less means.
There is no justification for this tax plan. Who, among the rank and file, has been clamoring for a tax cut while we can’t even devote the resources needed to take care of Puerto Rico and Houston?
The GOP claimed to be the party of fiscal responsibility. But they also used to stand for social justice. So much has changed since Teddy Roosevelt’s time for the GOP. And not for the better.
Do the right thing - raise my taxes and use the money to pay down the debt. Do not play the fool’s game of cutting revenues when we are ~$20 Trillion underwater.
3
So it turns out that, after six years spent doing essentially nothing but opposing President Obama, the Republicans in Congress are unprepared to govern. What a shock.
6
Wasn't Trump just in China saying how the days of China taking advantage of the US are over? How does adding billions more to the $1.2 trillion we already owe China not put us at a greater disadvantage?
2
Assuming that the bill's supporters aren't irrational, are fully informed of its likely effects, and do not take pleasure in hurting others, their reasoning may be best summarized by the slogan "Ask not what you can do for your country. Ask what you can do for yourself."
1
With respect, Mr. Leonhardt, I see it differently. The GOP isn't fooling itself at all; it knows precisely what it's doing. It is trying to fool the rest of us.
2
Anything the Republicans are for, you can pretty much be sure is a Trojan Horse to benefit the wealthy. They can dress it up anyway they want, but lowering tax rates will benefit the rich and shift the tax burden to the middle class. So let's keep it simple by having a uniform set of progressive tax rates for labor and capital and by eliminating all current deductions and tax credits. If someone can make a convincing argument that a private activity has a positive externality, then the tax code should subsidize that private activity to the extent of the externality. A good example would be residential energy-saving investments. It’s doubtful that many of the current deductions and tax credits we have would pass that test, so we’d be left with a much simpler and fairer tax code.
2
There is no end to liberal hypocrisy. "It would cause the deficit to soar and, as a result, probably reduce economic growth."
1. Deficit - Even ignoring any effect on economic growth, the GOP plans would nudge the deficit to $1.5 tn over 10 years. Where were Leonhardt's concerns when Obama created 4 of the 5 largest deficits in our nation's history ($7 tn total) ?
2. Economic Growth - Liberals pushed through a $1 tn stimulus which did little more than pay off state employees whose public unions are reliable Dem voters. By contrast, the most important parts of the Republican tax plan have nothing to do with the class war in which liberals are so vested. Instead, this tax plan is mainly focused on providing incentives for companies to locate in the US and grow. Our tax system becomes territorial - like the rest of the world - which will finally repatriate over $2 tn that corporations had held off-shore. The reduction of corporate taxes to 20% advertises that the US is an attractive place to do business. And perhaps most importantly, the acceleration of depreciation to the first year will drive much-needed growth in manufacturing and other capital investment.
The comparison to Obama's failed stimulus reveals a broader schism in basic thinking. Liberals think that government should be the center of our economy (and even our lives). But most people work in the private sector and recognize that growing companies mean more jobs and higher pay.
1
Republicans self-debunked the notion that this bill has anything to do with sound fiscal or economic policy by the haste and secrecy of its drafting. What emerges is the social engineering it effects. Upward mobility will be damaged with the withdrawal of support for higher education. Even elementary education is damaged with the mean-spirited withdrawal of teachers' deductions for classroom supplies purchased with their meager salaries. Coupled with the transfer of wealth, and the economic and political power that implies, to the upper class, the picture that emerges is a wealthier, more entrenched, and even more powerful oligarchy. This is not the democracy that Jefferson imagined. Instead, it is a horrifying new order unlike anything in our history.
2
I would hope (but not expect) responsible Republicans would tell their donor class base to be happy with the taxes they have, and keep donating. After all, it's better than having their taxes go up under Democrats if they quit donating.
1
Hmmm let's see now. Our jobs have been sent out of country and the only benefit for the country is the taxes on those earnings. Also the economic cycle is approaching the peak years where the corporate earnings skyrocket and to have their taxes slashed at this time serves only the few. No, the G.O.P. is playing the people for the fool, and once again only plan to take the money and run.
4
Deeply shameful and unserious bill. I don't agree with Repubs about pretty much anything, but they used to be a serious political party. No longer.
The long-term game is to defund Social Sec and Medicare. This gets them there eventually.
3
For decades the GOP has worked tirelessly to grant more and more tax breaks to the rich in order to decimate the Commons. They've been making steady and relentless progress on that since the 70's (during which most of the Left have acted like slow-boiling frogs). Now they are on the verge of completing their task. Sadly for America.
5
Here we go again. Another bill that really should never see the light of day. And yes, the GOP has painted itself into a corner. On the one side they need to pass something to deflect Democratic advances in the next election. And on the other side they face a formidable foe in the form of Bannon, Trump, and company.
We all know of the rush to pass something, even garbage. It’s as if the 2018 mid-terms were riding on this bill. But there is also great peril in this thinking and it’s not based on the November election but rather on the primaries and the rise of Steve Bannon.
This bill is so bad and Bannon knows it. Sure, it’s his kind of bill but only so far. He has already declared war on the GOP and a bill like this will only further raise his battle cry. Those Republicans who fear a Democratic opponent in the general election might also consider what could happen during the primaries when their only claim to fame this year is passing a tax bill that is widely unpopular.
So what is a Republican senator supposed to do?
I suggest vote no on the bill. Doing so would provide massive cover in both the primaries and general election.
5
Didn't see it here, but the reason they need to keep the deficit in check is so they can ram this bill through Congress without Democratic approval - otherwise they'd jack up the debt just to ensure the rich got a major tax cut. I haven't seen the total cost, but an NYT opinion said the top 750,00 households would get an average $700,000 tax cut - this is $122.5 BILLION per year. The maximum they can add to the debt over 10 years is $1.5T, which seems hard to estimate considering we have to raise the debt ceiling most every year.
4
While it will ultimately lie with those in Congress as to whether this bill passes or not, the real blame lies with those who have tried to construct Congress to benefit themselves. The Kochs, Mercers, Adelson, Pope, Ricketts, and others whose names are not as well known. These are the people who have made our Congress what it is. They are the ones who should be blamed. Congressional members who owe their position to these people are simply doing what they were sent there to do.
The only way to beat this is for more intelligent and rational people to constantly vote against any candidate who is supported by the greedy rich. While they may have more money than the rest of us, they still only have one vote.
3
The G.O.P. isn't only fooling itself on taxes, it's fooling itself on just about every bit of convoluted legislation it has so far seen fit to push down the throats of the American people...starting with their phony Health Care Plan, that would leave a vast amount of the population either destitute, or without any coverage.
And their so-called 'Tax Reform Bill' is just more of the same, designed to gut what's left of the middle and working class, while sparing the wealthy and corporate elite.
That this president and Paul Ryan are all smiles while lowering the boom is what's to be expected.
That the American public will blindly go along with this, should not be.
4
Most sensate Americans now see the Republican Party as sneaky, underhanded, and double-dealing. Add to the fact that lying now seems their main governing principle, they campaigned largely on "Obama's enormous, unforgivable" National Debt, and now they're planning to add much more to it. Hey, we see you!
I went back and looked at the growth of the Debt through every Administration since Kennedy. Republican Presidents oversaw the greatest annual percentage growths. Republicans blame the Democrats while being the villains themselves. The twelve years of Reagan-Bush_1 saw the Debt rise to 500% of when they took office. Bush_2 wasn't as bad, but still bad. Unfunded wars and unfunded tax breaks are very expensive.
There's no reason to be doing this tax break now, and certainly not for the wealthiest among us. America doesn't need a permanent oligarchy.
3
What astounds me is how backwards apparently the GOP legislating process is.
1. Exclude all but the narrowest group of Senators to begin.
2. Begin with the premise of tax cuts for donors (the wealthiest pinnacle and corporations.
3. Then, look around and see how you can make the bill balanced to exclude a single Dem vote.
4. Add some flimsy camouflage so you can dishonestly call it a health care bill or a middle class tax cut bill
And do all of this at night under the covers and --quickly -- so neither Congress or more particularly the press and the public can even know the bill contents until after passage.
(Just imagine a bill that began with "middle class tax cuts" or "improving American health care" and how differently beginning that way would shape a completely different bill.)
1
It's consumer demand that drives this economy, stupid! No business (small business which is not benefitted by this tax cut) will hire more employees if demand is flat which will be the case even w/ a soaring stock market as no discernible increase in discretionary income (after loss of righteous deductions such as education loan interest) will be accrued by the middle class. Instead of assuming that something will trickle down to them from the 1%, why not give it to them directly in increased minimum wage (whatever wage gets people working a 40 hour week off welfare) and see consumption & demand rise resulting in increased employment (if that is possible now) or better, increased wages.
Alternatively the end of this fable can be seen if Americans should travel & see how American & foreign middle class diplomatic personnel live (as I did) in third world countries: a house behind 12 foot walls w/ the mendicants swarming your car as you left your enclosure.
4
If you didn't know that the only thing holding this party together is the desire to cut taxes on the rich you have not been paying attention.
2
We have seen no evidence that tax cuts for the rich at the expense of everything else has proven to be anything but disastrous to the over-all economy or to the working class- period! i really want to see some substantial, collective, believable projection from economist of how this increased deficit will be paid for! Where are any respectable economist lining up behind this? how is Infrastructure? healthcare? medicare? college tuition/loans? safety net programs that give hope to all those un-aborted fetus now living with minimum wage mothers with unaffordable childcare? show how these important issues are benefiting from this tax bill that identifies few if any loopholes for the wealthiest ???
5
This bill together with a budget that limits the IRS's enforcement powers will turn us into a country of tax dodgers a la Greece. That's MAGA!
5
There is an obvious agenda to this bill which is to make attaining an education impossible for anyone that is not rich and I would even say to destroy university education as we know it. From the loss of the ability to deduct student loan interest, to the provision that would tax tuition reimbursement for employees of colleges and the added tax on graduate student tuition, this is a bill that looks to harm anyone seeking an education. Should this bill pass with these provisions, colleges will lose a significant number of students at the undergraduate level. Yet, it is the graduate level loss that I think will be most harmful to the schools and communities. Should this bill pass, you will see graduate students drop out of school, and with that you will lose the teachers of most undergraduate, particularly lower level classes. You will also lose the students that do the research in the labs. Only the very top schools with deep financial resources like Harvard will be able to absorb and deal with this blow. Less prominent and state schools will be put under financial strain. You will see schools around the country close, and with that not only will people lose schools in their communities where they can attain an education, but they will also lose the middle-class jobs that colleges bring to many small and large towns. This is not a tax bill, it is an an anti-education and educational jobs bill.
21
Our graduate schools are filled with Chinese students today- They are paying full-fare- and then they return to China. China is now building many universities and they are hiring professors from the west-. What will the west do when Asian students stop coming and they have priced out every American who is not wealthy?
2
"'The G.O.P.,' Henry Olsen, a conservative policy expert, recently said, 'really wants to do nothing other than cut taxes for businesspeople and the top bracket based on what can only be called religious devotion to supply-side theory.'"
The Republican tax cut bill is a faith-based initiative.
The Republican argument is founded upon hope that it will encourage economic growth sufficient to counter the deficit-finance giveaways to their donors - based on no evidence. "Believe me."
8
Unless 3 Republican senators suddenly develop a conscience, Repub$ may "win" this one. But remember, voters will have say in 2018.
Vote progressive in all local, state & national elections.
18
This tax bill is the greatest danger to our democracy and human rights since the election of 2016. Every dollar that is given away to corporations and the wealthy will ultimately come out of the hide of working families, the retired and the poor.
We just saw the right shut down the government to reduce the deficit under Obama, so the article’s premise that working families will be left intact by running a deficit is highly questionable.
For every trillion dollars taken from working families they will need to pay over $5 a day for ten years. This is roughly equal to the cost of feeding one member of a financially challenged family for a day. Here in relatively well off Sarasota County over 30% of families already skip one or more meals a month to make ends meet. The impact of a trillion dollar giveaway would force such a family to skip three addition meals a day for ten years.
This tax bill is a recipe for anarchy and insurrection. Putin, Bannon and Mercer must be smiling.
23
The simplest way to spend less on Social Security and Medicare is for beneficiaries to die sooner. Cutting taxes and health care will do the dirty job legally especially to the poor.
Trump is a fool and he and the Republican politicians are great con artists promising more benefits at less costs. Look how 4 years of tax cuts made Kansas grow (poorer).
22
And Oklahoma!
2
The GOP got themselves into a real pickle. They are in the process of paying off their rich paymasters with massive tax cuts and eliminating the inheritance tax but their somewhat dense voters are finally waking up and seeing the lies they have been told for 30 years are truly lies and not the magical trickle down economics they were faithful enough to believe for 30 years.
In addition to this, their sexual immorality is enraging the largest voting block in the country, women. They are showing up at marches, registering to vote and voting. The GOP deserves every defeat they are about to suffer.
19
The American democracy has been totally destroyed, and the only hope of reinstating it is by first repealing the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision, which many scholars regard as the worst in U.S. history. Instead, the media continue to heap praise on the deceased drafter of that decision, Antonin Scalia, which is odd to say the least, and Citizens United no longer gets any mention whatever.
10
That's why we need to break up the media concentration in the hands of just a few men/women. They are considering giving more power/ownership to another right wing hate group media conglomerate. We must get our public airwaves back and some regulations and licensing policies that put the interest of the people first .
2
The Republicans desperately want a "win".
OK, that's reasonable.Bbut can they really call this piece of legislation a "win" if only 16% of the adult population "...thought the plan would reduce their own taxes..."
Just asking.
7
"If they somehow fail to pass a tax cut, they will...look incompetent to swing voters." Oh, come on. They've already proved themselves incompetent in so many was.
19
The Republicans' problem is that they long ago decided to outflank the naturally broader base of the Democrats by means of a Southern Strategy and other cultural appeals to rural or working people -- while remaining the party of business and wealth.
When Senator Orin Hatch recently clashed with a Democratic colleague over the aims of the Republican tax bill, he used the argument that he came "from the poor" or, as he refined it, "from the lower middle class originally". That's an old one. The road to [you-know-where]* is crowded with once-poor rich people who retained only enough of their experience to play as a rhetorical card. When they were poor, they may have cared deeply for the poor. Later they learned to care deeply for the rich. Senator Hatch's heart is where his skin is.
* Apparently the moderators are being assisted by a validation script that rejects certain words. I've found that innocuous (you know me) comments containing any reference to -- er-- the realm of Pluto, no matter how literary, will disappear into a black hole. It's a pity, but I can't complain. As it is, the mind boggles at the thought of a few people wading through all this pontification.
2
This is what we voted for...it's the best we could get...and now we can't even get that. 98% of the country know this particular bit of legislating amounts to nothing more than week-old garbage...and even the congress knows it's garbage, but they'll pass it into the law of the land KNOWING it's wrong for the country now and got the next ten years. And in all likelihood we will vote these people, or someone like them, all over again. And $20 trillion will begat $25 trillion and $30 trillion. Was it really necessary to destroy a nation so a handful can have more? How do you sleep at night? Really, I mean.
14
Republicans’ middle class rhetoric has been a pose without substance at least since the middle of the Reagan presidency. Reagan railed against sky-high tax rates although those repaid the enormous debt created to win WW-2, and pursue Kennan’s strategy of containment against the Soviet Union, the “Cold War”. Reagan and his congresses decreed that, henceforth, those debts would be repayed not by them but by his grandchildren and great-grandchildren and the die was cast.
Khrushchev proclaimed “we will bury you” at the U.N. but it turned out that President Reagan carried the shovel. His answer was “we will bankrupt you”, and he did, at the price of bankrupting ourselves. Aalthough the Politburo fell ironically it was replaced by something worse — an criminal gang led by a former KGB colonel, why Putin’s Russia now poses an existential threat to an exhausted United States.
Meanwhile, Republicanism drifted from championing “cloth coat” middle-class values and interests to, in a word, Bigness. Internationalism required it. Vast investment in permanent military infrastructure at home and a far-flung military footprint abroad created big organizations. Those inspired similar consolidations like Amazon. Unsurprisingly, they took power. The money funding both major political parties comes from them. But government overspending created huge debt and deficits that those same elites won’t pay for, hence a second Reagan tax “cut” that actually redistributes middle class wealth to them.
5
Stealth-Care for the Wealthy.
5
It's so disturbing it's painful to read about. And boy do I wish the press banged a loud drum about the tax break for golf course owners.
Our leaders have no shame. Americans should be frightened and furious.
19
If my memory serves me Adam Smith considered trickle up as a basis for sustainable prosperity.
8
GOP fooling itself is NOT the real problem, it is only a symptom of ills of our country. The real problem is that so many American voters are ignorant, have no interest in facts, no ability to think and reason. As a country and once great nation, we are destined to decay, like any and all past great nations. We were fooling ourselves when we thought we were great because we were different, and we are fooling ourselves again if we think we can avoid the decline that all past empires experienced. The evil and ignorant Republicans are just symptoms of our national tragedy.
9
As long as they keep the social, religious, armed to the teeth crew happy, the GOP is able to bait & switch themselves into office. It is unbelievable really. Their base keeps voting aggressively against their own best interests.
11
Maybe if another bridge fell down, or perhaps another northeast regional electrical grid failure.....
Not a word, not even a whisper, about infrastructure. It's just fine for the Republicans to propose adding trillions to the national debt to give money to people who don't need any more money, but to invest those same trillons in projects that create real jobs for real people, and pay real economic and social dividends for everybody decades into the future is unthinkable, horrible, SINFUL!
The nation's infrastructure is approaching third-world status, and all the Republican Congress can do is debate how many billionaires can dance on the head of a pin.
9
If there are any Republican Senators left who have even a sliver of patriotism left in their bones they will vote NO! on this economically punitive piece of legislation catering to the new plutocrat elites.
This is not what our economy or our voters need now. They know it and we know that they know, and we know that they are lying to us every time they are on FOX or CNN or Meet The Press, every time they are quoted in the newspapers. If the bill were not so mean, nasty and economically destructive of America’s future we might simply feel embarrassed for them.
Instead, some of us are looking around for a big voodoo doll that can stand for the lot of them and into which we can stick pins. I suspect that such a doll has more heart and brain than most of these Republicans. May their ends be as bitter as the life they have plotted out for most middle class Americans through this legislation.
6
Please don't use the word "flip-flop". This lazy word, reminiscent of the sloppy usage of the currently vogue word "fake", was first wielded by Republicans against John Kerry. It's a vacuous word. People need to have the right to re-evaulate their thoughts and beliefs. You used the phrase "religious devotion to supply-side theory". Unless people have religious devotion to public policy, which is generally not a good thing, they need to have the right to re-assess without being tagged with the derogatory label "flip-flopper".
1
In their desperate attempt to "get something, anything" passed, so as to show somehow that they are not impotent at governing, they are collectively becoming a stampeding herd going over a cliff.
5
McConnell's crazy like a fox. Make corporate cuts permanent and individual cuts temporary. By the time 'temporary' ends, the political pendulum has swung and there's a Democrat in the White House. The public will have long forgotten what was passed into law in 2017-18. Now, in 2027, as the temporary cuts expire, the Republicans can point at the Democrat in the White House and shriek: THEY ARE RAISING YOUR TAXES AND THE DEFICIT IS EXPLODING TOO. Sets up the next election and the next Republican push to gut social programs because with the dire deficit, there's no other way.
7
They have learned the lessons of 2010-2016: the US electorate will accept anything, no matter how vile, from Republicans. A massive shift of the tax burden down the income scale is a core part of the Party's identity. The voters knew that when they lined up behind Trump.
5
1. Republicans used to be the party of fiscal responsibility.
- Now they are willing to vote for increasing the national debt by $1.5 trillion. I guess "deficits don't matter" anymore.
2. Republicans used to be the party of federalism and local control.
- Now, through targeted removal of the SALT deductions, they are happy to soak the citizens of states like NY, NJ, and CA that pay their own way, contribute greatly to the U.S. economy, and subsidize the "taker" red states through federal transfer payments. So much for "states' rights."
3. Republicans used to be the party of personal responsibility.
- But now they want to kill tax deductions for high medical expenses. So if you have been responsible and saved your money, and a member of your family faces an expensive illness that you pay for out-of-pocket (instead of relying on government assistance), you are hosed. You will now pay taxes on that income, and be penalized for your financial responsibility.
4. Republicans used to say the government shouldn't pick winners and losers, or engage in social engineering.
- But they retain the carried interest loophole. And they continue to tax passive unearned income (cap gains and dividends) at lower rates than wages. And they retain the step-up basis for inherited assets. So they designate wage earners as "losers", and recipients of passive income, trust funds, and inheritances as "winners." Sounds like social engineering to me. Trickle-up economics.
7
It's been so long since the Republicans even thought about doing the right thing, that they have no idea what that even means.
6
Like Paul Krugman wrote today the GOP knows they're going to lose the House and possibly the Senate next year so they're delivering for their donors in order to earn themselves a soft landing at K Street lobbying firms.
8
Dems should reject Republican class warfare and their reverse Robin Hood and promise to cut everyone's taxes by $1,000. No matter their income, every worker gets a $1,000 check in April.
They call for post-card size simplification.
How come the wealthy won't be filing their taxes on a post-card?
4
Maybe the lesson the Republicans learned from 2016, is that it just doesn't matter how bad they are. Some people and states are willing to overlook anything, as long as a candidate has that magic (R) after their name.
7
1. This tax legislation has the potential to have a major impact on our economy.
2. This tax legislation is being written by the disorganized, inept, desperate Trump led Republican Party.
Do the math.
5
As I watched on news reports the tantrum tha Orrin Hatch, (R), Special Interest Groups and Other Bribers, have concerning being called out about the treatment the unwashed taxpayers will receive in this bill I found it difficult to not laugh at the Senator's claims of looking out for those of us in the lower castes.
Based on his ignicant retort, I feel the bigger the denial the bigger the con, just like Trump.
5
"The Stock Market is at all time highs"
"We need a tax cut to make American businesses competitive in the world."
The message of Con men.
6
It's hard to prioritize the urgent, capital-intensive issues facing this country--even the short list runs long. So many things need to change. Making rich people richer changes nothing.
10
When one realizes that the "poor" wealth suffered such miserly tax breaks under Bush/Cheney and they are not only subject of poor press and so many have been plagued with incurable affluence.
In the moral mind of our congress, "It is the right thing to do".
When we are forced to reduce nutritional supplements for the malnourished at least this legislative branch is showing true compassion to this group of needy tax paying loyal americans.
5
Mr. Leonhardt's comments rest on the highly questionable assumption that a significant number of voters will actually know, by the elections in '18 & '20, what the bill is doing to them and their class. Republican politicians are making no such assumption. They believe, I think correctly, that most voters even slightly inclined in the R direction can be (want to be?) conned by vague and general, misleading claims and promises (aka lies).
On a related note. It's very good to see some of the MSM - the Times & Bloomberg come to mind - using very good graphs to show quantifiable data to folks like me who appreciate (and need?) that presentation. A good picture is often worth a thousand words, sometimes a trillion since numbers and words often accomplish zero in the actual communication of complicated quantifiable results and meaning. See the excellent graph in today's Times showing the impact of Republican tax "reform" on different income groups.
21
Agree that simple graphic illustrations are crucial.
Even better: narrated simple animations that show the vacuuming of wealth (and power) out of the 99% into the 1%.
Be sure that these cartoons include the changes in services and other benefits.
Point out that in this Citizens United world, power is related to the ratio of wealth among groups (not just absolute value).
Show the ROI of every dollar "invested" by the donor class in gaming the laws to their advantage.
Good cases studies: The Repeal of the Estate Tax (I've always believed that this has been the real aim of so-called Republican Tax Measures for decades. And, is so very close, to being realized today. The Mercers, the Mellons, the Kochs, the Trumps -- can almost taste it)
2
The American people will pay dearly for their clinging to party ideas that won`t ever benefit them. The powerful and wealthy will be able to go on as usual. The GOP is ideologically bankrupt.
16
Our government servants work hard to plunder our natural resources to line their pockets; fill government posts with incompetent cronies while leaving many posts vacant, and take away any control of megalithic banks and corporations. They lie to the cameras and don't care if anyone believes them, while having great parties at Trump hotels. All signs of our current "banana republic".
16
It's really time to call this what it is: the #GOPTaxHike. It started as an idea to simplify the tax code, then became a crusade for tax cuts. Now it does neither, at least not for most people and most small businesses.
15
A good analogy to what the Republicans have wrought is the old adage about computers: garbage in, garbage out. That is, if your base assumptions are wrong,, flawed or incomplete, no amount of analysis and proselytizing will change the outcome. Crunching the numbers will not improve things, in the same way (to mention another adage) you can put lipstick on a pig, but it’s still a pig.
12
It's possible that now, at relatively full employment we don't need a tax cut even for the middle class. What we need is structurally better employment, better and cheaper health care child care, elder care. If people have less to spend because of higher taxes, higher deductibles, higher copays etc, the economy won't grow either. We are 70% consumer. If the consumer ain't consuming, then the ecomomy don't grow! Excuse the poor grammar to make a point.
18
Funny that. Goldman Sachs, that noted liberal bastion, came to the same conclusion and said so through its CEO last week. However, that's apparently a very inconvenient truth in the halls of Congress.
1
This crop of republican congressmen are given too much credit. The idea that these people will make wise and reasoned decisions is pure fantasy. They were elected because they were empty-headed fools locked into ideology of falsehoods and simpleton solutions. Without the big money donor support they would be back to their normal lives of cheating their neighbors and cheating on their spouses.
13
Cutting taxes with the promise of an economic flowering has been a wonderful ploy since Ronald Reagan pushed the nonsensical theory of Arthur Laffer back in 1981. Looked at another way, since the federal debt was just under a trillion dollars.
19 Trillion in red ink later, with deficits rolling back toward a trillion a year, having weathered a painfully slow but steady recovery, the GOP still has no other fiscal plan to offer.
And they offer it with an unchanging rationale. Be good to those atop the heap and all of us will reap the rewards.
You're moved to ask, "Haven't you been watching the past 36 years? Did you just come out of a coma?"
After twelve years of climbing deficits, Clinton handed off a balanced budget which the GOP exploded. Bush left behind trillion dollar deficits and an economy in freefall. Obama cut the deficit and guided us through this recovery. Without a lick of help from the GOP.
With that history somehow ignored, Paul Ryan smiles as he passes a bill that showers great good upon the wealthy. He praises it as a supply-side, free market masterpiece. I think he actually believes it will work, which is frightening.
Most Americans have no faith in GOP economics. Our memories go back a decade or more.
GOP memories only go back to when they started blaming President Obama for everything, real and imagined. Everything's so much easier that way.
22
If they only thought that way in the first place, but when right is might, abuse follows. The right thing would be to raise taxes on the wealthy, and the chance of that happening is zero. There is no reason to go in to debt for $1.5 Trillion, except to give their benefactors a pay day at the expense of the middle class and the poor. When you think about it, it is more than abuse. It seems criminal. Let's not forget their intention to remove 13 million from the ACA, which seems diabolical, when you get right down to it.
10
Abuse is criminal.To abuse your wife or any woman, criminal. To abuse any child in any way, criminal. To abuse the power of an elected office, criminal.
Republicans know they will be the minority party, if they remain a party, in the foreseeable future. That is why they are in such a rush to grab all the public wealth they can, write laws that expand the rights and minimize the burdens corporations and their wealthy owners, and stack the courts with political hacks that will protect their heist. They are done playing politics. This is a smash and grab.
When they are out of power, they will try to hang onto what they stole by blocking appointments and legislation as the minority party while manufacturing scandals to immobilize legitimate government. Trying to play by the rules of democracy while the mob on the inside is robbing us blind is pointless, as is analyzing Republican tactics as if normal political conduct and consequences were in force. Wake up!
7
It`s time to change, whether they like it or not, the Symbol of the Republican Party. The new symbol should be a pig. They`ve done a disservice to elephants for years.
Anyone with a brain and a small understanding of how taxes work in America could see right through this plan even before they started writing it a couple months ago. It is the same plan Reagan and W pushed through that caused huge recessions. You cannot give more money to the rich and expect the economy to grow. The rich have everything they need so will not spend the extra money that they will be given. Give the same money to the poor and middle class and you know the money will all be spent, stimulating the economy so we can grow as a country. I suppose the recession will start in 2019 or 2020 if it follows the previous republican forced tax cuts of the past. And of course we will get a Democrat in the White House who will try to fix things (without congressional help). That is when the republicans remember they are fiscally conservative and are concerned with the deficit.
11
Indeed, the republican party is lost, trying to pass legislation while incompetent, and corrupt, with great harm to most Americans... while cutting taxes for the wealthy. An abomination for sure. While doing the right thing ought to be expected, given these congressmen sought to be elected to serve the people, the lack of moral fiber is an impediment. It seems as though the end, however awful, is justifying the unscrupulous means. This injustice will have negative consequences, for sure. Just wait.
4
Conservatives love the myth that the wealthy have earned their wealth by themselves. The self made man is the epitome of the conservative ideal. This myth is used to justify their absurd tax schemes.
But consider;
Can you name a single 1 percenter that got there without help? Take our Mr. Trump for example. He received a lot of money from his dad. He then used that capital to build a real estate empire or so he would have you believe. But let's be honest here. Mr Trump didn't build anything. A lot of hard working men and women in a host of different capacities did the work. (Some of them even got paid.) This doesn't even consider the materials that had to come from somewhere produced by more hard working women and men.
The point is almost everything in our society these days is a group effort, so why should the 1 percent get special treatment. I am of the opinion that the more you get out of our society, the more you should put back in. It seems only fair.
11
“Minnesota is already a donor state to the federal government,” said Democratic Rep. Betty McCollum of St. Paul. “It’s appalling that President Trump and the Republicans want to tax our state more to subsidize negligent Republican-run states that refuse to responsibly tax their citizens to provide basic services.”
7
I'd love to see a bit of sanity here.
Want to reduce corporate taxes to 20%?
Great -- but FIRST demonstrate you have removed all of the loopholes that allow GE and GM and Apple to pay zero taxes and offshore all of their earnings. Then talk about a tax cut.
Want to help corporations create jobs?
Great -- but why not require that some of the money being repatriated ends up in actual investment in the USA? The 2004 Corporate Repatriation of Earnings was formally called the "Jobs Creation Act of 2004" and passed under Bush (the son). Even the WSJ acknowledges that jobs were killed, not created, and the money went to buybacks and dividends. Why not legislate that this time it must be invested instead?
Want to kill the Estate Tax to prevent double taxation?
Let's "call the bluff" Let anyone pass down money that has ALREADY been taxed once.
But 90% of large estates are due to capital gains that have NEVER BEEN TAXED! Why should Donald Trump pass down a Picasso to Eric Trump where any capital appreciation in value was never taxed? And why should Donald Trump pass down anything if he can't show us his taxes to demonstrate that the earnings were ever taxed a first time?
Right now the bill stinks to high heaven. It doesn't do anything they say it does. And it isn't fair.
11
You have it wrong. Passing a hastily written, deficit-busting bill that harms the middle class will be great for the Republicans. It offers only upsides. First and foremost, the donors are happy with even more resources funneled upward to them. That's priority 1, 2, and 3. Second, deficit busting means cuts in Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security can be justified as the Republicans remember how horrible deficits are as soon as the $1.5T Christmas present for our wealthiest citizens is locked in. Those programs have survived right-wing assaults in the past. A real crisis is necessary to weaken or eliminate them. Third, harming the middle class is just a continuation of a generation of policies that have helped convince the middle class that government must be taken off their backs and the ever-dwindling programs that help them need to be further reduced. With much of the middle class tuned in to right-wing media, their continued rage against the evils of government and governance is all but assured. All of it bodes well for continued Republican electoral success and even more resources that are currently wasted on the middle class being redirected to the top 0.1% where they belong.
6
When we acknowledge that politicians act not in the interests of the people they serve but rather in the interests of their donors, we are also acknowledging that America is now a thoroughly corrupt banana republic, yes?
References to the ownership of the politicians by wealthy corporations and private donors surely should be the story here (and elsewhere), not this particular tax bill--as appalling as it is. I don't get how and why this issue is so casually treated.
6
By law politicians should wear their largest sponsorships with tattoos. If they are that proud of their support, show it for life or don`t take that support.
2
Interesting anecdote: H&R Block stock has risen about 15% over the last few weeks as the details of the GOP’s tax plan have been released. Remember Trump’s claim that his tax plan would be so simple that it would put them out of business?
7
They call this tax reform? It looks more like stealing.
6
To Republicans Reform is changing from a second story burglar to a pick pocket.
1
Laughed out loud at that first sentence. Republicans know exactly what they're doing with this tax cut - helping their donors. Everything else is spreading verbal fig leaves.
5
The GOp isn't fooling itself; they know exactly what they are doing. Rep. Chris Collins, (R-NY(, said: "My donors are basically saying, 'Get it done or don't ever call me again."
Yep. And those donors are the top 0.1%. These tax bills rob from everybody AND create big deficits to give a huge tax break to the very rich.
The GOP has been "the party of stupid," and now they are depending on it -- depending on ordinary Republicans to be so stupid as to think this helps them. We'll find out about that.
4
Some red voters may be angry that their economic status isn't improving, but they are too uninformed to understand tax policy. They won't blame Republicans, who lie to them regularly about the great things our government is doing for them. They will blame black people and brown people. What holds Republicans together is almost universal hatred of people of color underneath their love of the prosperity gospel. Economics isn't even on their radar.
6
This is Trumps way of getting rid of the Estate Tax and ending Obama Care. If the GOP agree to this then they are complicit in destroying our country once and for all. They should not give this tax money to the rich, but spend it on infrastructure, education, training programs and health care for the needy. We are on the brink of ruin and this is the death knell.
4
Grover Norquist's notion of shrinking the government until it's small enough to drown in a bathtub comes to mind as the only possible explanation for Republican's determination to give the wealthy more money while gutting medicare, the ACA and other so called entitlements. If this bill passes sure a tiny portion of the loot will trickle down to the politicians who voted for it and the think tank bottom feeders like Norquist who promoted it, but what a way to make a living!
4
Reverse Robin Hoods: take from the poor and give to the rich. And it’s those same poor, middle class people who keep voting them into office. Voters in many pockets of the country would rather pay higher taxes than have to vote for someone with a (D) after their name.
4
My middle class taxes will be soaring if they remove the medical deduction.
2
This article manages to be profoundly negative on the tax cut bill without even mentioning what may be the three biggest problems, and gross unfairness of it.
1. While the averages paint a picture of modest tax increases for most of the middle class, some members are likely to be rendered bankrupt and homeless. Medical expenses are not deductible. Counting tuition from scholarships or as a benefit for college grad students and other employees as income will double or triple the reported income for grad students, with no actual extra money--paying most or nearly all of their actual income to the federal government will force many grad students to either take out massive loans--no longer deductible--or drop out. Student loan debt is also not deductible. High tax, high property value states have many who will see a huge tax increase--possibly cutting after-tax and housing income in half or more--but also likely trapping them in a house they cannot sell for what they paid=bankruptcy.
2. Dropping the mandate will lead to 300 billion less going to medical care, 12+ million more uninsured, and about 15,000 additional deaths per year.
3. The massive deficit increases will automatically cause many more billions to be taken away from SS disability, Medicare, and Medicaid (including the money paying for most of the nursing home care.)
All this to give a gift to heirs, passive investors, and huge corporations -- the group that already is awash in money they can't spend.
6
“Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.” – H.L. Mencken
Republicans (once again) deceived enough of the poor and near poor into voting against their class interests in the November 2016 national elections to sway the results in their favor. As a result, the Right Wing oligarchy brazenly controls all three branches of government and we are moving ever closer to perfectly extractive political and economic institutions. Those without options will lose the most in terms of freedom and economic well-being. I don't think we can overstate the importance of the upcoming November 2018 national elections.
4
If the GOP fails to pass the tax plan, they prove they can't govern.
If they DO pass it, guess what? THEY PROVE THEY CAN'T GOVERN.
3
I am hoping for a tax bill so bad for the middle class that it will sink Trump and the Republicans for the next 20 years.
3
There are three things about the tax cuts.
One, there is the religious belief in supply-side economics. Tax cuts to businesses might or might not stimulate a lot of economic growth. Econometrics might be right, but experience hasn't shown overwhelming evidence, so this is another experiment. OK, but can we make this the last one?
Two, individual income taxes, payed mostly by higher income, is a separate issue. the median income is $60,000 so according to your graph, over half of the people will get peanuts or worse from this legislation, yet they feel payroll tax not income tax, and that doesn't change. What does reducing income tax for wealthy have to do with stimulating the economy anyway? Which shell is the bean under? this is a big con.
Three, the voters voted in Republicans to get rid of Hispanics, Muslims and stop giving Blacks help. Most of their voters are in the lower median, so they don't pay much income tax and won't get much benefit from this bill unless the stimulus works magic so spectacular that employers will line up to give big raises to workers. Trump and Ryan are smiling those smarmy smiles of theirs, knowing that once again they conned the voters into give their class big raises, while they promise social change.
2
"If they somehow fail to pass a tax cut, they will anger their base and their donors and look incompetent to swing voters."
LOOK incompetent? No, the cynical, shameless and hypocritical GOP is the real deal when it comes to incompetence. Controlling both chambers of Congress and the White House, they have exactly zero legislative accomplishments. And if they put all their eggs in this basket to raise taxes on the working- and middle class so they can to give huge tax cuts to corporations and millionaires, they're (to quote Jeff Flake) "toast."
3
Since so few people are in favor of this plan, news of it must somehow have leaked through the Fox barrier enveloping the red states. If it is passed, it will be interesting to hear their representatives explain to them why their wishes were so cavalierly disregarded . Will the McConnells and Ryans finally have overstepped their cynicism and disdain for their constituents or is there no limit to the callousness of the GOP and the gullibility of their supporters?
2
Walker and his crew slashed taxes in Wisconsin by over two billion dollars which by the next fiscal year caused an over two billion dollar deficit. Then Walker and his crew immediately said that “we had to” slash spending because of the deficit - which they created. This is the plan for the US - slash taxes for the rich and then use the resulting deficit as the excuse for slashing Social Security and Medicare. You can bet on it.
3
But it's not just that the campaigns of most of these Repubs were bought and paid for by big money that stands to benefit from the tax cuts, it's that these Repubs only know how to woo that big money. They know little to nothing about about governing or representing the people, nor do they care to. There is no sense of citizenship or the greater good. They have no greater purpose than doing what they are doing, which is to raise funds from the haves and try to deliver the goods to them. That's about it. That's where we are right now. To change things, we'll need a new set of people in the Congress. 2016 in VA gives us some hope of change to come. 2018 should bring some clarity.
2
Republicans used to criticize idle people on the dole. They are "takers" who are dependent upon the government. "Get a job," they would say.
Now the Republicans have moved on to punishing the working poor, and even the middle class. Their tax bill will not benefit people with lower incomes from full-time jobs; in fact it will be a tax hike for many of them. The Republicans have moved the goal posts. Working full time is not good enough for them any longer - they will penalize you unless you are wealthy.
How cynical is the GOP?
Stick it to the "working stiffs" with their "earned income." Yet passive income from capital gains, dividends, carried interest, and pass-through entities is rewarded under their tax code. A bonanza for the idle rich. Who are the "takers" now?
4
Citizens in red states should implore their republican reps to join what I'd humbly propose as a newly formed "coalition of the decent" among republicans, starting with Senator Collins, maybe McCain. Under the Trump tax plan proposals no thinking person can honestly believe a bill which literally takes money from the poor and middle-class to hugely enrich the ultrarich can possibly help the country. Which means Trump, McConnell, Ryan, et al, are doing this maliciously,. They are abhorrent criminals. What other republicans will join this coaliton of the decent? I'd venture it would help their upcoming, if any, campaign bids.
2
Tax reform in two words: Henry George.
The 19th century economist, in his book “Progress and Poverty”, proposed the Single Tax, also known as the Land Value Tax.
Essentially, no income or sales tax, only a tax on the value of land (not a “property” tax - tax on land, not buildings).
Advantages?
- Simple to define and enforce. The tax would be “x” percent of assessed land value, no exceptions. You can try to hide income but you can’t hide land.
- Progressive and pro-growth. The wealthy own most of the high priced land and would pay most of the taxes, but the marginal tax on both income and consumption would be zero – a win-win for liberals and conservatives.
Henry George, who had a somewhat socialist view of land and natural resources, believed that the money you earn from your business, labor or profession belongs to you 100%, but the value of your land is due not so much to your own efforts but to the value of the surrounding community and is therefore fair game to be taxed to support that community.
Could the Single Tax raise enough revenue? If my math is right, taxing all private land in the US at an average of eleven cents a square foot would raise $6.5 trillion, which is equal to the combined budget of the federal government and all state and local governments.
Again the key point: You have the wealthy paying a large share of the tax burden to provide vital public services but structure the tax in a way that it does not punish work, savings and productive investment.
That would cause financiers and other robber barons to trade their mansions for penthouses and place a huge extra tax on farmers. Not to mention raising the housing costs of renters, which means most of the workers of this country.
If the deficit explodes after 10 years under this plan, how about clause that will automatically raise the tax rates on corporations to cover the deficit. If the Republicans are so sure that these corporate tax breaks are going to work, then why not show it by a "put up or shut up" clause?
There is much to be said about this tax hike but I will focus on one thing. We need to see a more granular breakdown of the impacts than the one shown in the graph in this article. The most naked travesty comes when we see how this "tax reform" boosts the incomes of the 0.1 percenters, and even the 0.01 percenters.
2
The US budget is already short 15% or more not counting raids on Social Security. This is deficit spending be fore the tax cut plan. Pay as you go! Servicing the debt is like paying 20% on. credit card.
The GOP has to fool itself, it's the only way they can, convincingly, fool the GOP voters. The only thing that is tilted toward the middle class in this bill is the rhetoric used to sell it to an unsuspecting and fatally misinformed electorate. We just need to match their drumbeats with ours. Just keep calling it a failure and we will be proven right, because if they can't pass it they fail and, if they do, we all share in the failure. And, by the way, I don't think I or the grandchildren have enough time on this planet to wait on the Republicans to "do the right thing".
1
The GOP is fooling nobody on taxes, least of all themselves.
Trickle down is the feel good fantasy of republican economic policy for the sole reason that it benefits those who trickle down on the rest of the people. Corporations are awash in cash and as the administration discovered to their horror when polling a gathering of CEOs, the corporations are not going to shower raises on their workforce if they obtain further tax breaks, they're going to buy back stock and reduce corporate debt.
But the GOP will increase the nation's debt by another ~$2T for the sole reason that they are able to pass legislation, no matter how poorly written and no matter how biased to their donor class.
If the GOP is so hellbent on increasing the national debt to demonstrate their ability to pass legislation, there's a better way to do so and add many thousands of higher paying jobs to the economy.
Pass legislation to update the country's bridges, electrical grids, transportation networks and other hard dollar, high wage infrastructure projects the country desperately needs to be competitive today.
But passing infrastructure investment won't benefit their donors and won't allow the ~5700 families to escape the inheritance tax. So they won't.
No, the GOP is not fooling itself on taxes.
It's not fooling anybody else either.
2
The smart thing to do is get rid of GOP all together since they're incapable of governing and have democratic party and independent one. Independent will consist of reasonable conservative and progressive democrats, a.k.a. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and others. I would vote for that solution, plus completely eliminate Citizens United. We should rework the whole old, obsolete structure,
otherwise we're subjecting ourselves to the vicious cycle year after year with no end insight.
2
"The best hope for stopping the bill is the handful of Republicans willing to think beyond raw partisanship."
This bill is going to substantially raise taxes on the constituents of every Republican senator who votes for it. The fact that these senators are willing to vote for such a bill shows that they believe they can be re-elected notwithstanding the damage they will do to the financial situation of their voter base. This tells us all we need to know about: (1) how clueless their voter base is; (2) how gerrymandered their States are; (3) how successful their voter suppression efforts will be; and (4) how little they believe they need to fear from Democratic voter turnout.
2
Countries tend to fall when the lower classes are overly taxed for the benefit of the wealthy. Eventually the lower classes get tired of it and they rebel. While I doubt that we're going to see anything on the scale of the French revolution or the Russian revolution which both ended with the genocide of the ruling classes; what those two incidents taught the rest of the developed world was stability comes from a strong middle class.
If the wealthy continue to overplay their hand, they leave themselves vulnerable for the opposite effect. The American people, after discovering just how much money is being stashed abroad by the wealthy and corporate America may decide they can afford much higher taxes than they want to pay. The happiest countries have a top rate of 60% and while corporate taxes are lower in those countries they don't have as many loopholes as our corporations enjoy.
Our country was the most stable during the Clinton years when he raised taxes on the wealthy slightly to invest in the rest of us. We had surpluses and the deficit was being paid off. The economy responded to higher taxes on the wealthy by taking off which only increased their wealth. But doing so brought the rest of us along for the ride.
If the Republicans are suicidal they'll pass this tax plan. Doing so may very well relegate them to a minority party for the foreseeable future. The people are mad.
2
Why would anyone believe the Republican Party's claims about tax cuts? And why would anyone think the Republican Party cares about the middle class? The tax-cut and trickle-down scams were the centerpieces of the Reagan Revolution, and no matter how often they're trotted out, enough voters, pundits, and talk-show hosts buy-in to make the sale to voters who can't resist plunking down their futures on the same old shell and pea game. Donald Trump told people he would make them a great deal on the Brooklyn Bridge, and plenty of people bought it. Most have already forgotten what the terms were and are looking forward to the trial of Hillary Clinton. It's hard to say the fools here are Republicans. They've been running the same grand old swindle for decades and rumors of their demise are always exaggerated.
3
Saying that the Republican tax plan is "based on what can only be called religious devotion to supply-side theory" is too complimentary. How do you explain the repeal of the estate tax? It's terrible policy – for inequality, and for unfairness to hard-working, risk-taking entrepreneurs who pay tax when lucky heirs don't. The only explanation is capture of the party by wealthy donors.
I hope all those othe Republicans enjoy the results: raising (or failing to reduce) other taxes, Medicare de-funding, or increasing the deficit.
2
Is the GOP really fooling itself? I suppose it's a sense of fooling itself, but that presumes a basic morality. And that is a dubious proposition. Any fairly adult and cognizant human being has to engage in a contorted suspension of disbelief to "maintain" a semblance of self-respect in this tax shenanigan.
There's a desperation to the Republicans' lying in the face of obvious truth - the desperation of someone who must commit a crime to obtain the love they crave. In this case, the love of their donors, their daddies. So, yes, the Republicans are fooling themselves. But getting their bread buttered in the bargain.
107
Deficits will soar calling for cuts in Social Security and Medicare, despite the fact that they are funded by a separate tax. The economy will grow little since we are already at functional full employment. Infrastructure repair will be unaffordable. We will have a non-working aristocracy made up of the born lucky grandchildren of the ultra-successful. Otherwise tax cuts are a great idea.
21
The government borrows from the Social Security trust fund and pays no interest.
1
It is astounding to me that Ryan and McConnell did not take in the lesson of Repeal and Replace-the futility of trying to rush through a Republican bill using only Republican votes. They both ought to go after this debacle is abandoned.
103
Democrats need a counter-slogan to "trickle-down", which we know doesn't work (it never made sense to me anyway -- why should the majority of us settle for drops trickling down from the wealthiest among us?). How about "rising tide" economics, as in "a rising tide lifts all boats"? And beyond slogans, Dems need to pound home again and again that bolstering the middle class, its wages and jobs, and nurturing human capital so more can aspire to solid middle-class status, is what drives a strong economy in a democracy.
39
Current democrats are not concerned about rising wages. They are concerned more about if little timmy can use the restroom that little cathy uses at the same time. the disconnect is huge and profound.
How about "Everyone needs a Raise"?
How about, "trickled on?"
Isn't possible to pass a tax cut for the middle class only. No estate tax reductions, no pass through reduction, some educational loan forgiveness, and middle-class tax reductions. Still hurt the national debt but more likely to stimulate.
23
Why would they do that? Any middle class cuts are only window dressing on a bill designed to crush middle class new yorkers' personal finances.
It is certainly no secret that the way to stimulate the economy is to increase consumer discretionary income. Demand drives supply, not the other way around. Economics 101.
43
It should be called the Lawyers and Accountants Jobs Stimulus Act because while it won't do much for the economy as a whole it will create plenty of work for those sectors, as professionals and businesses rush to take advantage of its new provisions for business income. It is the exact opposite of tax reform, making the already Byzantine code even more complicated with its phase-ins, phase-outs and multiple classifications of income, each with its own set or rules.
76
Trickle down I can believe in: raise the minimum wage a lot, lower the bottom 3 tax brackets. This will unleash consumer spending thus spurring production, increasing employment, raising wages, increasing profits for businesses, thus increasing dividends and asset values for the wealthy. Everyone wins as money trickles down from the lowest paid to the highest.
14
Honestly, why do we need a tax cut? Things economically seem ok. A good infrastructure program would do a lot for working class people, and inject money into the economy where it will be spent and drive demand, plus actually provide some real, pun sort out intended, concrete benefits for all of us.
BTW if we really want to help businesses a national health care system would unshackle businesses large and small from that burden and let them just focus on production. A little upheaval as people transition from employer plans but good public policy.
264
I agree with your suggestions. To answer your question, we don't need a tax cut. GOP donors, who really control the party and our government, want a tax cut to save themselves billions of dollars and they realize this is their best chance of getting it. Their greed is endless.
3
The GOP needs to pass a "tax cut" because the wealthy want more money. Healthcare will never be a priority with the GOP. Never.
3
Unfortunately, helping the rich is only part of the plan. The rest is to actively harm everyone else. What other reason could there possibly be to eliminate tax deductions for education, which will only save the Treasury some $2 billion. Pocket change to our enormous Federal budget. The only answer is a wish to see the already disadvantaged suffer more. They want us all hurting and desperate so that we fight amongst ourselves for scraps while they cart off our dinner.
3
Broken subways, broken bridges, declining wages. Why not spend the money on infrastructure instead of giving it away in tax cuts to be hidden offshore? That way it may actually do some good and raise tax revenue due to increased economic activity.
312
Because this is what the big donors want, and they're all that matters to these hollowed out members of Congress. Either their constituents don't vote for them because they haven't passed anything, or they lose because their biggest donors don't support their runs because they haven't given the donors the big tax cuts they want! They'd rather betray their constituents.
2
Because the middle class people that would benefit from this are not big $ donors.
2
Right, Mark. Thanks for maaking that point. Trouble is that the Adelsons, Kochs, and Mercers (named by the great senator Sherrod Brown), feel that their “macho” image is disrupted by the federal government. How can it tax them and put regulations that protect everybody’s health, the nation’s heritage of magnificent public lands in the way of their profits. It’s not that they just say no. They paid for their congressmen and they’re going to get their money’s worth. See how much Koch Industries has given to their congressional stable at:
https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/recips.php?id=d000000186
1
An excellent analysis of the Republican give-away to the rich. I still would like to see Democrats present an alternative plan that really does give a tax cut to middle- and lower-income people. History suggests that would be a much better way of stimulating the economy. Unfortunately, all we hear from Democrats is opposition to the Republican plan(s).
36
rf,
I agree, the Democrats should put together their own bill. The stranglehold the GOP has on both houses of Congress is why they don't --- it would not see the light of day on either congressional floor. The lesson they don't get is that they should write one up anyway. They will be able to show to American voters what their bill would look like when they hold the power in Congress. A symbolic act still holds the power to inspire later action.
66
Good article by Leonhardt again. This tax bill is another shift of income to the monopoly corporations and the rich from middle class. As an economist I will tell you the most powerful force on investment is consumer or government spending and if the consumers have a tax increase, they will cut spending and investment will have to drop.
I would instead increase the actual and effective corporate tax rates, eliminate tax loopholes for Wall Street hedge fund billionaires, and raise the inheritance tax rate back to what it was in 2001. U.S. corporations should be taxed on their foreign profits (they have $4 trillion parked abroad free of taxes).
These increased taxes could be used to #1 fund a trillion dollar domestic infrastructure program aimed at mass transit, highways, water systems and environmental programs to address climate change including rebuilding from hurricanes. #2 some of the additional taxes could be used to cut the fiscal deficit driven mostly by excessive military spending abroad.
51
Arguments about taxes frequently proceed on the assumption that benefits for some taxpayers require that other groups bear higher costs. In a strictly monetary sense, this belief holds true. But anyone who evaluates tax reform strictly in terms of dollars misses the more profound impact of such legislation. A change in taxes redistributes the burden of paying for public services, and in so doing it strengthens or weakens democracy and influences perceptions of fairness.
Wealthy Americans who wield their financial clout to persuade Congress to slash their taxes at the expense of most other citizens, risk alienating the majority of voters from the political system and undermining the rule of law. In a constitutional system based on the consent of the governed, political stability depends on a consensus that the state fairly distributes the burdens and the benefits it imposes on society.
Bogus theories about trickle down economics will not deceive most voters for long when they observe the failure of their pay checks to trickle up in value. The wealthy donors behind the current GOP proposals play a dangerous game when they value their narrow financial interests above the welfare of a society and legal system that provide irreplaceable security for their assets and a peaceful environment for their families.
The survival of a free capitalist society depends on a sense of community and a widespread belief that power is shared fairly. The Kochs appear not to know this.
211
Mr. James Lee, I agree 100%. THere's a stronge short-signtedness in our greedy billionaire class. And the Kochs pale in comparison with the Mercers and many other billionaires who understand nothing of what holds society together. On the other hand, maybe they're getting ready; "we" have been militarizing the police and alienating them from the people, perhaps in preparation for large-scale repression.
82
Can you imagine how desperate is the need to cut taxes for the rich and corporations that graduate students will have to pay taxes on tuition waivers they get as research assistants or other teaching assistant jobs on campuses. It is unconscionable the Tax Plan that is being pushed through without the regular process of public hearings, debate, and input.
139
Mr. Lee: Your comment is one of the best I have seen in some time. You show great insight into how a country such as ours should operate and function for the common good of all of the citizens. If only someone with your knowledge and insight would run for a political office, then there may be hope yet to save this Republic. Thank you.
17
The fundamental problem is that tax policy is a zero sum game. Its like sharing the bill at a restaurant. To cut one person's taxes you have to raise taxes on someone else. The only way to cut taxes overall is to reduce what you spend.
We have been cutting taxes for years and passing the bill to future taxpayers. That's us. If we had kept the tax rates we had before 1980, we would have no deficit and no national debt.
101
This is a two edged sword.
Yes, it clearly benefits those whose wealth is well beyond the average.
And, it would appear that it dings the least of us...including those of us who are retired, as I am.
BUT... the rhetoric obscures a fundamental fact. Corporations are the engine of job creation, not government.
WHY are there $4trillion warehoused in foreign banks by US multinationals?
They're tax-paid foreign earnings which can't come home because of our present corporate tax structure. The OECD treaty requires (or allows) that we tax foreign tax-paid earnings by our corporations by the difference between our corporate rate and that of the originating nation.
While the OECD has steadily reduced it's average corporate tax over the last 15 years, we have maintained the highest. 35% federal, plus an average of 4.5% state, or 39.5%. So if you're Ford and earn $100M in the UK, and pay 20% tax on that... what do you do with the remaining $80M? If you bring it home, we'll tax it another 20%. Or, could hold it offshore and use it to pay vendor bills, or to invest in offshore markets and jobs overseas.
If we had a shred of reason in Congress, we'd reduce our corporate tax rate, and eliminate all industry specific allowances and loopholes, to encourage repatriation of those $4T, for investment in plant, equipment and jobs, or simply to piddle away to the bottom line, which would strengthen our retirement accounts.
6
You argue businesses need low taxes to thrive. Then how did businesses thrive in the 50s and 60s? Higher tax rates then did not stop business from growing. It DID, however, spread the benefits more broadly. Interstate highways aren't built by businesses.
32
Actually, customers create jobs. Wages are compensation for the wealth value of labor- it has nothing to do with capital assets. They are separate from wages, which are derived from the productivity of the worker. To claim that more capital for corporations will spur them expand their businesses has been disproved, when we tried this scheme under George W. Bush. Instead of using capital to support hiring and wages, corporations used their cash to expand using leverage and buyouts and then contracting the workforce, all while siphoning cash into tax shelters and paying outrageous compensation even to corporate officers who tolerated and encouraged corruption, speculation and deceptive business practices.
Trickle down economics is a destructive, bogus theory, and if Republicans and so-called "fiscal conservatives" continue to cling to it...well, see what's happening in Kansas and Oklahoma for a taste of things to come if this tax plan ever becomes law.
You argue for a reduction in corporate taxes. The problem is that the GOP is selling this as reductions in individual taxes and increases in wages for the working class and middle class. Clearly their proposal includes "huge" (DT's word) tax savings for the wealthy and only wishful thinking that corporations will return their windfall savings as enhanced wages to their workers. Modifications of the tax code for anyone making over $100,000/yr are unnecessary if this were about the working class and middle class. As you stated, currently corporations are flush with cash; if corporate boards wanted to increase wages they could have already. Thus, your argument does not follow the GOP's stated purpose. Too, bad they didn't just settle for a bill to reduce corporate taxes!
Since when have the main reasons to pass legislation been that the party needs a legislative victory and that "my donors are basically saying, 'Get it done or don't ever call me again'" (Chris Collins, NY-27)?
And since when has it been acceptable for Congress to even consider passing major legislation - and bad legislation to boot - without due deliberation in public?
If the American voters have their wits about them, they will severely punish this Congress for malpractice in the 2018 midterms.
At least Chris Collins gets an A for honestly admitting that he puts his donors ahead of his constituents.
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I`ll go along with the punishment of malpractice as long as the removal of the license to practice is first on the list of punishments.
2
I watched that Chris Collins interview live and couldn't believe he was admitting that donor's-first mentality so casually. And then I heard another interview of another upstate Republican, Tom Reed, say the same thing. With so much riding on this...with the GOP feeling that some legislation has to go through by the holiday or bust...this has got to be bust time.
3
Like you I took careful note of Chris Collins' comment. If legislators seriously dislike being beholden to donors, then why don't they change it by legislating money out of politics? Politicians may talk a good game about disliking relentless fund-raising, but they certainly haven't done anything about it.
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It is beyond believe that Republicans continue to promote the Ta Cut despite all evidence that indicate their plan is bad for the middle class and likely for economy. I would not be upset if Republicans accept that the their Tax Cut will help their donors and the wealthiest Americans. If the Republicans have any decency they will come clean with their supporters and American people and admit that the proposed legislation has nothing to improve the life of the middle class Americans and everything to do to please their donors so that they could again try to mislead Americans public in 2018 and 2020.
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Step back and reconsider the relationship between The Republican President and The Republican Congress. They have joined forces to enact legislation that is fully consistent with the platform adopted by The Republican Party. They are Republicans and they never pretended to be anything more.
What did you expect them to do, enact progressive legislation?
19
I couldn't agree more, and, as a social democrat, I look forward to their paying the price at the ballot box next year for tax bills 'fully consistent with the platform adopted by the Republican Party.' A recent poll shows 25% public support for them.
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The slight difference this time is the president won by convincing people in lower income brackets that he had their back. Maybe not so much. Think they will notice?
2
All true--but they (the Republicans) never told their supporters that the enactment of the Republican platform was going to bankrupt them and the rest of the country.
1
Here's the true problem of Republicans and Conservatives in general: they haven't the FAINTEST idea on how to govern. And there is no solution for that, other than keeping them as far away from government as possible.
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True, Republicans and Conservatives haven't the faintest idea how to govern. Yet that is BECAUSE their underlying philosophy is emotional, not empirical. Ask a Republican what a Republican is and they will say, one who supports limited government, fiscal conservatism and individual responsibility. Notice that each of these points is based not on empirical understanding, but on visceral opinion. Effective governance is impossible when you see this complex world the way you want it to be, rather than the way it is.
5
Governing is easy, just keep saying NO like they have for six years.
Are you tired of winning yet?
1
I think you're giving Congressional Republicans too much credit. They're in a desperate bind only because their donors are angry. After their spectacular failure to pass a first round of tax cuts in the guise of a "health care" bill, donors no longer have confidence in their ability to deliver the expected return on investment. If they don't quickly pass a massive redistribution of wealth to donors in the guise of "tax reform," donors might decide to invest in other candidates in next year's primaries. It's a desperate matter of survival.
As with the "health care" bill, they know this deeply unpopular, purely partisan legislation could never survive the scrutiny of the normal legislative process with its public hearings. They also know Democrats in both houses will uniformly oppose their partisan plans. They must therefore work behind closed doors, and use whatever creative accounting is necessary to bypass Senate Democrats (nearly half the Senate) through "reconciliation."
The quality or fairness of the bill isn't important. It only needs to accomplish the wealth transfer and obtain the barest majority of Republican votes. If taking health care away from 13 million people and raising taxes on the non-wealthy is what's needed, they'll do it. None of those people matter anyway. Loyal Republicans will vote Republican no matter what; and gerrymandering and voter suppression will take care of everyone else. The Greedy Oligarchs' Party cares only about its donors.
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The "Donors" are the Oligarchs - They are the only ones this Congress and the Senate represent - not the general population of this country. That is why the proposed tax law is what it is.
3
The Gop isn't bad at math, nor are they religiously devoted to supply side ( some true believers but I think mostly deceivers). This is terrible policy but the GOP will build a simple us/them argument, paint it red white and blue and run it up the flagpole. The right wing noise machine will blare it 24/7 and if it passes millions who will be hurt by it will claim a victory for freedom.
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“The G.O.P.,” Henry Olsen, a conservative policy expert, recently said, “really wants to do nothing other than cut taxes for businesspeople and the top bracket based on what can only be called religious devotion to supply-side theory.”
No, based on their religious devotion to ensuring businesspeople and the top bracket keep writing checks to their campaigns.
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We've already seen the Republican tax cuts for the wealthy in action--in Nebraska. And we've seen the economic carnage it caused. This bill is Nebraska on steroids and will not only hurt everyone, but the rich, but even they will suffer as the economy crashes back into another Great Recession. Yes Dorothy, "you're not in Kansas anymore." You're in Nebraska where the wizard is out of tricks and the Emerald City is facing foreclosure.
29
[Revised] We've already seen the Republican tax cuts for the wealthy in action--in Kansas. And we've seen the economic carnage it caused. This bill is Kansas on steroids and will not only hurt everyone, but the rich, but even they will suffer as the economy crashes back into another Great Recession. Yes Dorothy, "you're not in Kansas anymore." You're in the nation's capital where the wizard is out of tricks and the Emerald City is facing foreclosure.
I'm expecting Warren Buffett, "Oracle of Omaha," to use his tax breaks to fix the disintegrating roads in his own home town. Once they become too decrepit, Omaha just grinds up the asphalt, spreads it out, et voila, new dirt road for you! I'm very surprised Warren isn't upset about schoolchildren coughing on all that dust while they're waiting for the school bus.
He and his sister, Doris, run a charity where, if you write them a nice letter, they'll send you a few bucks to get your teeth fixed if you've fallen on hard times. Maybe the Omaha highway department should try that. Then, they can hire a bunch more workers to fix the streets. Job creation. Aha! That must be trickle-down!
Oops, it was Kansas after all. Sorry Dorothy a senior moment from another fading wizard.
"another failed attempt at major legislation would be a big political problem for the Republicans."
"Political problem"? This suggests that Republicans view themselves as being "hired" by a populace that bothers to vote, when in fact the Republicans understand full well that they were "hired" by their donors.
The Republicans' allegiance to their owners explains their rushing headlong to push through a terribly regressive tax plan that has as its dual intent the vast enrichment of their (de facto) owners; and the impoverishment of the troublesome rabble. I heard a Republican congressman say as much (about that first intent) on live television, just the other day.
About that second--albeit unspoken--intent: The harshest but most effective (while subtle) way to control the populace and minimize their political involvement is to inflict severe economic distress. This has the dual result of minimizing wages (people desperate for work will take what they can get) and monopolizing all of their time (as they cobble together multiple jobs in order to survive) as a means of social control.
Those now in command would like there to be fewer job options, fewer demonstrations, fewer college students* AND increased income inequality, unfettered power, and easily manipulated voters. This tax does both--while also exploding the deficit (boon to lenders). What could be better?
* www.insidehighered.com/news/2017/07/11/dramatic-shift-most-republicans-n...
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If the objective of the republican party is to tax the middle class into extinction and create a feudal society, then their tax plan is certainly a step in that direction.
1
Absolutely right. Throughout the history of civilization those in power have controlled the masses by keeping them poor, uneducated, fearful and in debt.
2
The sobering truth is that the Republicans do not care about the USA anymore as long as they can make money, further their positions by kowtowing to billionaires and then drive off to their very expensive enclaves far from the madding crowd. As for the future, their children will inherit so much money that they can leave the country anytime and live a life of luxury with no responsibility.
We live in a world where actually owning a 450 million dollar painting is more important than spending the money to help starving children, etc.
Greed. Immorality. Winner take all.
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Yes, there is a lot about the House bill that needs fixing. But for G*d's sake take off your green eyeshade. How can you rationally discuss the bill without mentioning what Prof. Mankiw (in the NYT) calls the "centerpiece" of the bill: The cut in the tax rate on corporate income to 20 percent from 35 percent?"
Mankiw explains: "Many economists believe the corporate tax is a bad way to fund the government. That is, compared with other taxes, it generates a lot of economic harm for each dollar of revenue it raises. Some economists go so far as to recommend that the tax on capital income should be zero."
He goes on "Some may worry that a cut in corporate taxes would benefit only the firms’ wealthy owners. But that is not true, especially in the long run. Over time, lower corporate taxes would attract more investment in the corporate sector, increasing workers’ productivity and thus their wages."
If you disagree with Mankiw, I'd like to hear why. Sneers about supply-side theory just don't cut it.
Not only that, but the plan is revolutionary in doubling the personal exemption and eliminating many of the tax breaks for the rich that festoon our tax code. The tax plan has flushed out the Democrats and exposed them for what they are -- the party that uses the tax code to bribe taxpayers with other taxpayers' money.
I live in MN, so I will pay more taxes. But I say "godspeed".
Mankiw actually has some great ideas about how to fix the bill. Check them out. See Mankiw's blog.
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Here's why I disagree with Mankiw: the effective corporate tax rate is about 19%, in line with many other developed economies. Cutting corporate taxes won't move the GDP dial much: most of it will go to stock buybacks. The reason is simple economics: the US is only using about 78% of its industrial capacity because of low demand. Imagine a restaurant with a quarter of the tables empty, and then imagine giving the owner a tax cut. Why make a capital investment to enlarge the restaurant, in the absence of increased demand? It's consumers--at home and abroad--that drive the US economy, and pushing up share prices with corporate tax cuts won't help them.
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Corporations are sitting on record amounts of cash. I don't see an economic case for increasing corporate revenue, but rather increasing demand. We have Victorian era levels of inequality and so corporations do not have the customers to justify more investment.
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Ian Maitland, I think Mankiw and you don't care to admit that Red state voters are bribed with money taken from Blue state taxpayers.
23
Why does "doing the right thing" have to be in the place of last resort? What ever happened to attempting to do the right thing for the right reasons, which includes treating others like you would wish to be treat? How did the Republican Party get into such a position? Who is going to help make things right? Praying for our world, our country, our "so-called" president, our government, and all of us to "do right, love mercy, walk humbly" with our God.
5
The Trump tax hike on salaried Americans will motivate voters in a way no other politician has ever motivated constituents to the polls.
Believe me! I am one poked bear.
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I pray you are right!
3
The lessons of 2016? They haven't learned the lessons of 2017!
The GOP has once again unilaterally kludged up a bill behind closed doors, just like the failed "health care" bill. This is first draft writing without analysis -- just a hasty gifts for their wealth donors. They couldn't get ACA repeal through their own party, yet some genius thinks that adding repeal makes the tax bill more attractive.
No governing skills at all. Voters need to turn them out in 2018.
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Its not the lack of skills--it is the lack of heart. It is also the absolute contradiction of their oath of office: to serve all of the people, not just the ones who made huge campaign contributions so the campaign could saturate all news sources with lies.
2
After the new debt is purchased by foreign investors and they foreclose on our failing economy, will we look back and say ah ha, that was what Putin was planning?
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China could do this any time....they own us!
1
"In a time of deep economic dissatisfaction, among members of both parties, Republican leaders insisted on basing their plan around an enormous tax cut for the wealthy."
Donald Trump ran on jobs, infrastructure, and stopping a rigged economic system. Congress paid lip service, without mentioning their "bills due" to donors.
Now tax "reform" has urgency because of Trump's poor performance. It's also morphed from tax simplicity to tax unfairness. As each week passes, deficit estimates balloon, forcing them to take more and more from the struggling middle--the very ones Trump and company promised to help..
It would be bad enough if the cuts were just for the rich without the pretense of helping the middle. That they involve actual tax increases on most of the middle is unmitigated gall. Particularly because all this new debt will trigger massive cuts in Medicare and other entitlements per previous law.
Read the front page story on Trump's search for budget cuts to to pay for hurricane relief. This is in ADDITION to the $1.5 trillion deficit caused by tax reform.
We can't afford tax reform. We can't afford Citizens United either, but it's the reason why Republicans--and all of us--are heading off a cliff.
Please NYT and every single reader (I'm pretty sure donors aren't reading this): spread the word to everybody you know, particularly those whose nose is stuck in Facebook, about who's doing what to whom.
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Christine, all those mean and nasty consequences are part of the plan. Surely you know that.
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@Thomas Zaslavsky: by "plan", which one? I believe Trump's plan is to push the envelope and assume more executive powers than the Constitution allows--a quest for ultimate power. On the contrary, the GOP's plan is to eradicate Democratic influence in the government, and so "tax reform" is a great way to do it--increasing corporate power, decreasing funding for education so folks aren't aware of what they're doing, rewarding donors and widening the income divide so that we become in fact what we are in essence: an oligarchy. They don't care in the slightest if this should lead them to not regain office, because backed by their patrons, they will all do fine in think tanks and K street until they regain power in Congress--a quasi congress, in name only.
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Please Christine, include links when you can. People are lazy . All you need do is surround it with at least one space or put on a separate line. Love your comments.
Here, and thanks for the recommendation: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/17/us/politics/trump-disaster-relief-hur...
2
The GOP tax cuts for the uber-wealthy will result in at least another $1.5 Trillion on national debt while providing no recognizable benefits to the 99% of US citizens. Undoubtedly, the GOP will then cry out that spending cuts in the social safety nets are required to address the defict issue, and will then cut back the funds paid out for education, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Can we not see how this movie ends?
If the GOP was planning to invest this $1.5 Trillion dollars in our country, via infrastructure, STEM research, grants for medical students, funds for childhood education, healthcare and nutrition, veterans healthcare and job training, then that would be an entirely different discussion. But that will never happen when the GOP is in power. Because their donors do not need nor appreciate these investments in our nation.
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The Republican party has been intimidated by the president all year and has been playing by his ground rules, that is, proposing legislation that his base would approve of, rather than do what’s best for most Americans. The president has whined about not being able to accomplish anything and wants to get a win in the worst way.
The GOP is aware of the harm their tax bill will do to middle class Americans, not to mention a hidden extra of doing away with the Obamacare mandate. They just don’t want to ruffle the feathers of far right and evangelical Republicans who don’t understand that this shotgun of double jeopardy is being pointed right at them. If the Republican lawmakers can’t do the right thing, voters will follow the state of Virginia’s lead and vote for politicians who will be responsive to their concerns.
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One word to silver bullet: Donors.
5
How much can it really add up to? just return the money the two parties accepted from the donor class, and move on...isn't that REALLY what all this is about?
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Yes, Republican Senators should do the right thing, vote the bill down and then resign.
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Or they could try governing the way they should by bringing the bill to the floor for open debate, amendment, discussion, and input from across the aisle. What a concept.
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Or they could even hold committee hearings to listen to the ideas of people known to be experts on questions about taxes. Also quite the concept.
8
Sounds logical except the debate has become which foot of the working class to cut off, not how to keep from cutting any feet off. The Pubs have already decided behind closed doors that the burden of taxes should be shouldered by the working class and the amputations will continue until the coffers of the rich are full or the moral improves, which ever one comes first.
8
Two Out of Three
1. To help workers and U.S. businesses, replace the business portion of the payroll tax with a 4% VAT
2. To help global business, lower the C corporation rate to 8% but increase the tax rate on dividends to normal rates. [Corporations are less effected by rate the stockholders pay than the profits earned].
3. To help wealthy families and create trust fund grandchildren with corresponding values, eliminate the estate tax.
3
More sales tax. Right? Yes, right(wing). Sc--- the people.
5
So stick it to all retirees depending on dividend income and make everyone except the filthy rich pay that VAT. Sounds like a wonderful plan, NOT. The rich simply fly to Europe or wherever to do their shopping, get their VAT refunded when they leave the country, hide the new purchases from US Customs like Jeb Bush's wife tried to do and pay no tax of any kind. They win again!
3
@Susan and Tom may not fully understand a VAT. For a worker is it better to pay 7.65% of all payroll income or just 4% of consumption? The VAT is twice as good even if you spend all your income on taxable items (which is not likely). It is also worth questioning why the U.S. is the only developed country without a VAT. A VAT is the fairest way to tax different types of businesses across different political jurisdictions.
In regard to taxing dividends at normal rates, it is important to understand that normal rates are already low for low and moderate-income people, including retirees. More importantly, the lower C corporation rate will greatly increase dividends. Even the rich don’t mind paying a higher rate if the income is also higher.
1
This tax plan is hastily and poorly cobbled together, yet they have been campaigning on it for decades. . It seems that just as with the Affordable Care Act, the Republicans never planned to act at all. They just wanted to have a permanent ISSUE to mobilize their base and to inspire their donors to give. For the Republican leaders, it has always been just flim=flam.
The tactic has served them well.
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Republicans may be 'fooling themselves' about their tax plans, but working people are not being fooled, according to most polls. Passing an unnecessary tax cut just to get a 'political win' is not good policy. Working people have not seen their taxes go up since the Bush cuts of 2001, and most are not clamoring for another cut. Some Republicans have admitted openly that it is mainly their corporate donors who are asking for tax cuts, but they still have not given a convincing argument that such cuts will stimulate the economy. (Just ask Kansas.) It hasn't happened before, and no corporate types have offered specifics on what productive things they would do with their extra cash. Republicans spent the eight years of the Obama administration complaining about deficits, and now they want to pass tax cuts? The irony is unbelievable. The party of 'no' during the Obama years is now the party of 'no good ideas.'
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The only true tax reform would be to treat all income the same, and get rid of all deductions, so that there is no way to reduce your tax bill. No special interests should be favored in the tax code, which would reduce the influence of the lobbyists that have taken over the government.
Once deductions have been eliminated, then we can adjust the tax rates so that the poor and middle-class are not punished by the system. Yes, popular deductions are gone, but the system can be more fair to most of the people as the ability to cheat the system would be gone. The only people who benefit from the current system are those who have the money to hire the experts at gaming the tax code. The present bills do not simplify anything; just shifts around the loopholes.
29
So would businesses not be able toduct wages?
This is, perhaps, the final opportunity for the Senate (the House is a lost cause, in more ways than one can count) to do the right thing and represent the citizens of the United States. It is way past time for the 100-member body to set aside the importunate insistence of the rich and heed the calls and cries of "we, the people," the tax-paying citizens who hoist this great nation upon their backs every working day.
It's been so long that perhaps it's been forgotten when it began, but the two senators who represent each state have stopped working for the people who have made them their voices at the national level. They have been seduced by lobbyists of every industry. What inducement(s) can be so tempting that they forfeit all honor and principle to subscribe to a corporation's bottom line?
Something is never done for nothing; it's simply not human nature. So one wonders why senators, the paid hirelings of the people, think it a good thing to heed the siren calls of commerce and industry instead of the plaintive wails of the "middle class," those scorned subjects who have placed them in the very seats of power in Washington?
The graphic accompanying this op-ed clearly outlines winners and losers. The Republican Party is so bankrupt from both a moral and practical standpoint that they were willing to sacrifice the country's present and future for the sake of giving already-wealthy people more of what they have.
This is not democracy at work. It's theft, pure and simple.
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It's looking like there is hope for the House. Democrats might actually win it back. And I've been a little hard on my progressive friends (same beliefs as my lifetime liberal and Democratic ones but they're eager to blame us instead of the real perps) but those younger winning candidates hither and yon and all over the place are a treat!
10
"The two senators who represent each state have stopped working for the people"
This is certainly true in some states, but there are still a good number of senators who still do represent their constituents. We call them "Democrats".
5
One of your best comments....
Thank you.
1
What is going on here? Where are Trump's tax returns? The media is failing us since literally nothing has been published or written about the estimated or anticipated effect on Trump's taxes, both in the short and long term. Really, how can any responsible senator (or house member for that matter) cast a vote for this tax plan without knowing what it will do to Trump's taxes. We are being bamboozled.
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Actually, I’ve seen a lot on this. He stands to benefit by a million dollars a year in reduced taxes and his heirs benefit by a billion dollars through elimination of the estate tax. His claim that tax “reform” is “really bad for me” is, like everything else he says, a total LIE.
5
They know and the media told us - the leaked Trump 2005 1040 shows that the vast majority of the taxes he paid were due to the Alternate Minimum Tax. Guess was is being eliminated in the bills - the AMT.
5
We saw Hillary's returns and no one was even slightly concerned about the amount of money she reported in income from foreign governments and others who made payments to her husband while they had business pending before Hillary.
What business is it of yours what is contained in Trump's income tax returns?
Leonhardt: "They may as well do the right thing."
Are you kidding? Doubt that these "geniuses" are capable of doing the right thing, since the leadership has never expressed a serious interest in jettisoning politics and working for the American people. The disregard for the public/common good became evident when Mitch McConnell asserted that his major goal was to make President Obama a one-term president.
Doing the right thing has not been on the Republican leadership's agenda for a very long time. Expecting a conversion capable of moving them to do the "right thing" would take an experience analogous to what the Apostle Paul experienced on the road to Damascus.
97
The approximately 1% hike on incomes below $75K combined with some benefit cuts (higher expenses for education, healthcare, etc) would affect a huge number of people and the vast majority of retail outlets in America. The gainers are those receiving $500K or more, and most of those are in a few big cities. So if this passes, the rural and small-city areas are likely to slump even more while taxes as well as job growth move money to a relatively few big cities. This would adversely affect red-state revenue and real estate prices, I suspect, while adding to bubbles in the big cities. All the red-state bumpkins who voted for this can contemplate economic justice while watching their daily bean and beer money shrink.
68
And what will those who proposed, supported, and voted for this fiasco will do when the inevitable happens? Well, blame Obama ... or Hillary ... of course. Red meat for the red states.
1
Let's just call this Reverse Robin Hood Russian-Republican Orthodox Christmas Gift what it is --- 0.1% right-wing billionaire/CEO donor welfare charged to the Middle-Class Taxpayer American Express Card.
It's not really 'tax reform' as much as it is a bank robbery of the national treasury utilizing the very well known Republican consumer fraud of 'trickle-down' urinomics.
And the bank robbery will be complemented with the collapse of the ACA, Medicare and Medicaid funding, literally killing many Americans in the process through economic neglect and abandonment.
Greed Over People is nothing less than a very serious psychological disorder.
Greedy people often lack self-worth and try to compensate for it through infinite material wealth which they hope will fill the infinite void inside of them.
Many greedy, miserable souls have a deep negative sense of self that contaminates and destroys their morality.
The greedily-disturbed compensate for the black hole inside themselves by giving themselves an inflated sense of moneyed importance, while they project on to others their own repressed feelings of unworthiness.
"They're the unworthy ones," their projection asserts, "not me!"
Scorn and cold-heartedness and contempt for the masses arises out their Grand Old Projections and moneyed sociopathy.
http://www.truth-out.org/speakout/item/26840-greed-as-a-mental-health-di...
This is a very sick tax plan offered by a truly sick Republican Party of greedy sociopaths.
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Call it what it is: "tax deform."
12
"trickle down" is what our country gets from old men making tax policy secretly in the senate bathroom!
5
While I generally agree that the GOP tax plan is dreadful, I certainly do not agree when you write, "It would cause the deficit to soar and, as a result, probably reduce economic growth." Please quote me a period in US history when too high a deficit has reduced economic growth.
I can certainly point out seven periods when too low deficits have led to utter economic disaster. The crisis of 2008 was the most recent when from 1996 to 2008, the federal deficit was less than the trade deficit and money flowed out of the private sector. The other six happened because we had a sustained periods of negative deficits. Here is the historical record:
The federal government has balanced the budget, eliminated deficits for more than three years, and paid down the debt more than 10% in just six periods since 1776, bringing in enough revenue to cover all of its spending during 1817-21, 1823-36, 1852-57, 1867-73, 1880-93, and 1920-30. The debt was paid down 29%. 100%, 59%, 27%, 57%, and 38% respectively. A depression began in 1819, 1837, 1857, 1873, 1893 and 1929.
26
Forget economic growth. The "need" for deficit reduction will be used to destroy Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and healthcare. "Drop dead" is the Republican plan to save money.
239
What does correspond to the biggest recent crashes is the last years of "successful" Republican tax cuts, unfunded wars, deregulation, and irrational optimism on the casino on Wall Street. We an handle debt, I agree, but not stupidity and wholesale greed.
Then there's the environment and the poisoning of increasing areas of our finite earth. Not to mention Trump's enabling Saudi bullying - did I hear that 24 million are at risk from famine in Yemen, the horn of Africa ... 3 million without power in Puerto Rico (again) ... must stop now, the list is endless!
We need to grow a heart.
34
Mr. Barkan, I agree that the Republicans shamelessly use lies to further their agenda. BUT that should not blind us to the lies themselves. Today many, if not most, people believe that the federal government should be "fiscally responsible," that it should balance its budget, reduce or eliminate its deficits, and pay down its debt. These beliefs are the most pernicious among those myths which hold our country back, and which have produced the economic disasters of the past. To use a very mixed metaphor, if we continue to sweep them under the rug, we will again fall off the economic cliff.
4
We have ceased to be a functioning democratic republic and are inching our way towards an autocratic oligarchy.
95% of Americans want background checks for purchasers of guns. about two-thirds want a ban on assault weapons.
While we are not a pure democracy and do not function based on plebiscites, our elected officials have a sworn fiduciary duty to do what is best for the majority of their constituents.
We have had government of the wealthy, by the corporations, and for the lobbyists for a very long time.
584
Yup, the right to kill at a distance and in a hurry is more important than the right to live. It's "enshrined" in the constitution by the Fox idolators, you see.
21
Republicans have so gerrymandered their congressional districts that they can scarcely lose an election and therefore have no need to pay attention to their constituents' desires. Until voting Republican is no longer an automatic reflex, representative government will remain a thing of the past.
2
"We have had government of the wealthy, by the corporations, and for the lobbyists for a very long time."
Even under Obama's Presidency? He said he had a pen and a phone - wasn't there anything he could do about it using those items along with the power of the Presidency?
I'm worried. I received this year's notice about increases to my "health" insurance - an increase of 19.6%. The #1 reason cited: "Changes to certain provisions of the ACA and the decision not to continue federal funding of cost-sharing reductions, which impact Silver plan rates." I don't make enough to qualify for subsidies, but I seem to make enough to need a tax increase - and I'm depressed. At 60 years old I don't have a lot of prospects for increasing my income. It's hard to understand why the wealthy donors don't care about little people getting squeezed - that is until the revolution comes. By then it's usually too late - and the pendulum swings back. Greed and greed for power can still be turned back. I truly hope that McCain stands up for regular order and Collins for the ACA and any others who've ever expressed that they care about the deficit - please vote accordingly.
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Try moving to a Gold plan. More benefits, lower cost. Not supposed to work this way, but because Silver plans are the benchmark, some games are being played to cover the subsidies paid to insurance companies so they do not lose their shirts if they get too many too sick people. This is the unintended consequence of Trump playing cutsie with his willingness to pay the subsidies.
Typical Trump. Basically pushing the insurance companies to renegotiate by threatening them about the subsidies. However, he did (and still does not) understand why the subsidies were there and how they work, and also got totally outnegotiated (see above paragraph).
Again, your workaround is to upgrade your policy so the increase is only 10%--but you may well make it back with more things covered and lower co-pays. In any case, you can cut your increase by going Gold.
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I don't understand your "I don't make enough for subsidies". Can you explain further?
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My Gold Plan with Blue Shield is scheduled to go from over $1200/mo. for myself and my three children to over $1600/mo.
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