Navigating a Breathtaking Level of Global Economic Change

"The question is whether all the enthusiastic talk from chief executives is reflective of a truly robust economy or whether we are missing something." You are missing something: the fact thay you all live in your own bubble, completely insulated from millions of Americans who are still suffering the effects of the Great Recession. They never saw any recovery. Corporate profits are at an all time high, the stock market is doing great, but the middle class is still suffering from stagnant wages and rising costs of living. Most Americans don't care about the stock market, they care about being able to meet the expenses of continued existence in this country. Our infrastructure is crumbling, our military is overextended in overseas conflicts, yet all anyone wants to talk about is how great these executives are feeling. I'll tell you why they're so confident: They know that they can continue sucking money out of the economy without consequence, and that their allies in Washington are doing their damndest to help them create a hereditary ruling class, not unlike feudal England. America is inching closer to an aristocracy every day, and the media is cheering on the executives rather than worrying about how the average American is being affected.

"And then the other surprise is how robust the U.S. economy is — how strong corporate profits are. I would say that’s my biggest surprise, how robust corporate profitability is, even with a quite dysfunctional Washington." I'm not that surprised, actually. The whole idea of the Obama Stimulus (2009) has been to first of all stop the downwards spiral of the previous year (700.000 jobs lost a month, at a certain moment, and each month 100.000 more than the previous month, with a GDP that was at -9, whereas at -10 you have a depression), secondly to turn it around and create a positive GDP and normal job growth as soon as possible again. But the stimulus also had an explicit third goal: to lay the foundations of an economy robust enough to withstand the potential market instabilities of at least the next decade, and if possible longer than that. So it also contained a long-term objective. In the meanwhile, we know that the first two and most urgent goals have indeed been achieved, as planned by those who designed the bill and as predicted by the CBO at the time. So if 7 years later even the volatility of someone like Trump combined with a completely dysfunctional GOP Congress can't destabilize confidence, I only see one explanation: business owners know that the foundation is solid again.

There's nothing more frustrating than watching the press handle the Trump presidency. He really is a master at playing these guys. Two simple rules: 1. No matter how ridiculous the claim, the media will print it verbatim. 2. In an effort to not look biased, they will always lend a little credence to points where even absolutely none is warranted. He knows this. So he tweets a patently absurd claim, taking credit for a stock market that is growing at about the same rate at which it has grown since March 2009 even though he has only been in office since 2017 (and has enacted precisely zero major policy changes). Media's response? He gets mentioned as a "debatable" reason for deserving credit that the stock market is doing well. The. Market. Has. Been. Doing. This. For. Nine. Years. Straight. Here's my point. If Donald Trump didn't tweet about taking credit for the stock market, would his name be worth mentioning as legitimately (or even "debateably") deserving of credit? If the answer is yes, OK. Then feel free to enlighten us as to why he is so deserving of credit. Good luck with that. But if the answer is no, and I'm betting it is, then you got played by him because his name shouldn't even be in the discussion. And now you're playing your readers in return.

The Economy is booming and perhaps hinges on The Global Financial Markets? You have one person to ask and who would it be to explain this encouraging news. Dr. Draghi might have some input to add, Mr. Warren Buffet, might be another, Mr. Steve Rattner, who contributes an economical article on occasion to The New York Times, a measured and seasoned economist at the Independent. We are at a Party. All parties end. What is the reason that the Economy is holding so well in the tumult and confusion of world affairs. If this were taking place two decades ago, I would rest assured of a bonus at Christmas. China is creating jobs for Africa. Tremendous poverty in Russia for the forgotten ones. A year ago on asking a lawyer whether Politics and Economics could walk separately, yet side-by-side, he gave me a quizzical look and remained mute. How strong is the Bond Market? What would be the cause of a severe global recession, and is it wise to navigate on blind faith? To sum it up in a nutshell, it is sounding a little too good to be true.

Because corporate Fascism is doing very, very well in this country and elsewhere. Every day is like Christmas for these financial grifters until we close them and their hoarding off-shore accounts down. It is only going to get better for them and worse for the rest of us until we do.

With unstable and erratic "leadership" at the top of American politics, a strong economy is a high-wire act, with a good chance of nasty surprising wind gusts lurking and ready to blow global business off the wire.

“And then the other surprise is how robust the U.S. economy is — how strong corporate profits are. I would say that’s my biggest surprise, how robust corporate profitability is, even with a quite dysfunctional Washington.”

Why? Because they are rich. Wealth begets optimism. They are detached from the realities faced by most. They can afford to be optimistic.

Perhaps because they know they have the GOP, and by default the entire US government at present, wrapped around their little fingers? It doesn't get much better than having anti-regulation GOP flacks in charge of almost every federal regulatory agency and Congress proposing to cut your taxes from 35 to 20 percent, does it?

If I were a senior corporate executive in today's USA, I would be drooling over the new tax plans, which will take me from being merely rich to obscenely rich.

They seem full of something, all right.

If one is half way informed, you know what goes on around you, and you deal with it. Most folks I talk to, have tuned out the hype the media thrives on, and blast out 24/7. I wondered just today, if all this impeach Trump hype may end up backfiring on the media, when Americans get a shot again at the polls. Unless deplorable's become against the law, there still out there trying to manage. Trump got elected because the Clintons were a worse choice. Thank the good Lord California, ie Hollywood and Silicon Valley along with the cluster of population in the eastern upper US don't totally run the country.

Our own president Trump with background from the business world has so much confidence in himself that no "fake news" or scandal can divert his attention to making a deal either in domestic affairs or in international arena. He has already made himself and his family top of the world status. Why would the other business leaders feel anything different? It president Trump can do it, why can't they? All these leaders already know in their heart what will happen to the rest of their life with more money to support an excellent life style and cozy social relationship in an opulent society. If not, they shouldn't be CEO. In I were in their shoe, I will feel utmost confidence, too.

Can somebody please explain to me why we should have confidence in our economy, and economies around the globe at this point in time? Have the problems that confronted global markets last year simply disappeared this year? Speaking for myself, I have never been more terrified or depressed about the state of our nation, politically and economically.

The wealthy are chasing a small group of assets as investments, pushing them to valuations that make me wonder if there's an "omnibubble" developing. Maybe that's the reason for the optimism. These CEOs are doing well.

Nothing about this is particularly surprising to me. The term of my entire adult life has been a succession of burst bubbles, pension scandles, bank bailouts and recessions. I personally have zero confidence in the wisdom and intentions of our investor class. Investment bankers are short-sighted, and they are highly motivated to project assurance to their investor customers in order to sell investments. Likewise, CEOs are highly motivated to project assurance to their stockholders. Wallstreet has the unhealthy effect of encouraging brokers, bankers and CEOs to be intensly focused on short-term gains.

I too would be full of confidence if receiving the kind of pay CEOs are getting these days. Not to mention the contract clauses that protect their compensation packages if they are removed from the post.

Well, the last time confidence was this high was 2008. So, we should really start investing in this market, except... The last time confidence was this high was right before a huge crash, followed by a severe global recession.

Unfortunately, economics theory has a fatal weakness in that it ignores the constraints of physics- energy and resources. We cannot continually grow at higher rates on a finite planet. We steam oil of of shale rock, and drill for it thousands of feet under the sea. Rio Tinto PLC's next planned copper mine is 7000 feet below the surface. We are looking at mining methane hydrates from the ocean floor. Some see these as technological marvels, but to me they are signs of bottom of the barrel desperation. Even our industrial agriculture is highly energy intensive- it requires over 10 calories of fossil fuel for each calorie of food produced. Cobalt availability is a major constraint on 'green' technology. All of this is clearly seen in a 60 year world-wide trend in declining GDP growth- its called diminishing returns. An economy relies on material resources and energy. We can't keep increasing consumption at exponential rates. Yes, we have figured out that we can keep the growth going with very low interest rates, but isn't that pulling in the future to enjoy now? How can all this debt possibly be paid off? We have bet our future on the philosophy that deficits do not matter. So yes, the economic optimism and growth will continue... until it doesn't.

As many people know, but sometimes forget, Change has two components: What is changed & the Rate of change. Both are important. This plays out especially if the rate of change is too high. People will resist change if it happens too fast, even it is a change they agree with. For example, say you like the idea of being able to pay with your phone. Your bank & phone carrier implement a plan for you to pay for everyday purchases with your phone. They give you two days to set up your phone, install their program and go through the security protocols. You would probably resist change this fast. Many a project has failed because people did not take into account the rate of change required and make allowances for unintended consequences. Perhaps the ultimate example of a mismanaged transition is our economy. The lack of planning left many people behind and the unintended consequence was Trump.

If you're a corporate executive who, every time the stock market goes up another forty points is a million dollars richer, how are you NOT going to feel "confident"?