That geography is called Saudi Arabia because it was the Saud's that were willing to betray the Ottoman Turks for the lowest price to the advancing British during WW1.
The Ottoman Sultan was also the Caliph, basically like the Pope of the Catholics but for Islam. So technically the Saud rulers betrayed their religion. To make up for it to the people of the region they went ultra-orthodox, Wahabism was ready at hand.
As not just the price but strategic value of oil recedes its very hard for the Kingdom to actually start manufacturing or creating alternate value streams. Hence with hard times you will see some cooked up flavor of nationalism grow to distract its population. Recent record weapons purchases were just the first step.
Israel joined the party as it was convinced the weapons would be used against Iran and its influence. But you never know...
3
Hmmm, can't seem to book a suite at the Ritz Carlton in Riyadh. I hate when that happens.
3
What kind of deal did Kushner make with MBS?
4
I only hope this is not the beginning of making a tyrant
2
The beginning of the end of the House of Saud.
And, just like when the Shah was overthrown in Iran, who knows what condition Saudi Arabia will wind up in when this family drama plays itself out. While America should not continue enable this corrupt, despotic regime, realize we've so tainted our relationship with so many of the people in the gulf, the US should just takes its losses and totally withdraw from the Middle East.
4
Trumps is giving MBS a blank check and backing him against Iran. Over 100 years ago the Kaiser gave Austria the same encouragement and Europe became a battlefield for 2 generations.
WW3 will start in the mideast with ignorance and naive intentions. Netanyahu, Trump, and the young Saudi Prince are fools and may make W's foray into Iraq look like a picnic.
4
Yemen? 9/11? Saudi Aramco going public? Once again, Mr. Frieman's analysis is dizzying.
2
I find the "story" of the single missile that supposedly was fired from Yemen into Riyadh, but intercepted by air defences, suspicious. Single missile? Intercepted first time? Nobody caught off guard? Wow, these Saudis are really on the ball, aren't they?
From Google maps I estimate that the straight distance from the Yemeni border to Riyadh is about 1,000km or, what, 640 miles. I'm not a missile engineer but that's no RPG or Katusha that makes that flight. It certainly requires some sophisticated launch and guidance technology. And they who shot it could only afford one? What was the point of that one single missile?
Suspicious.
5
So this is the Kushner Peace Plan for the Middle East. Start a war with Iran. Or maybe just a civil war within Saudi Arabia. And we thought George W. was bad.
6
Trump is turning other nations towards sovereignty as a means to cast their future. It is a blessing that the presidency has ceased to become a pulpit for TED talks and one for real Presidential viewpoints, such as the notable presentation Trump gave to the South Korean assembly within the last 24 hours. The substance of that speech alone surpasses any of Tom Friedmans' Obamaesque pronouncements in the last decade.
I compare it to Nixon's trip to China when I was an International Relations major. This president appears to know more than any of the New York liberal Establishment (and yes, Virginia, it exists) are ready to give him credit for.
It looks as if the only developer worth his salt in Manhattan (in taking risks with risky property) is now taking some risks in the international stage.
You weren't ready for your billionaire homie to jump out of your stereotype, were you, Tom? Check your drawing board.
3
I'm the sheik of Araby
Your love belongs to me
Well at night when you're asleep
Into your tent I'll creep
The stars that shine above
Will light our way to love
You'll rule this world with me
I'm the sheik of Araby
1
The question Mr. Friedman has raised about M.B.S. is very pertinent: “Where does his impulse for rapid reform stop and his autocratic impulse to seize all power begin?”
The answer is he has already started seizing power. And he is doing it not impulsively, but after careful thinking. He knew full well that, to stay in power, he will have to eliminate all his present and potential enemies. The surprise arrests and imprisonments he ordered have to be explained in those terms.
And with all the power he grabbed so far, he has been able to attempt only cosmetic changes. He will soon realize that, to bring about real, lasting change, he will have to first curb the power of clerics. It is their paleolithic interpretation of Islam, that has set Saudi society this far behind. Such an interpretation enabled the House of Sauds to stay in power all these years.
Another formidable challenge for M.B.S. will come from the 25 percent of the population that is young and unemployed. Large numbers of them are educated in the West. As Mr. Friedman says, about 35,000 are coming home every year with advanced degrees and progressive ideas. They will become rebellious if they can’t put their degrees to good use and find outlet to heir ideas.
Taking care of them should be the Crown Prince’s priority, not arresting his imagined enemies. Women form a significant part of them. M.B.S. cannot win their support with promises like the right to drive, that too in an age of driverless cars.
3
The middle east, spun out of control?
Perish the thought.
1
Tom. I remember you on Charlie Rose not too long ago discussing the present anomaly in DC and saying (I paraphrase): "What worries me Charlie, what really worries me, is what happens when a real crisis arises?"
You didn't have to wait too long, did you?
1
I suspect part of the reason that MBS is "in a hurry" is that he believes - as many politicians and political pundits do - that Mr. Trump's chances for surviving his first term is slim and, if he does, the probability of him winning a second-term is almost nil.
MBS must also be counting on the fact that Mr. Trump is eager to start a war somewhere so that he can use "presidential war-time powers" to block Mueller's investigation into his Russian connection. Therefore, one cannot blame him for being in a hurry, as he obviously realizes that the next US president may have no interest in blowing up the Middle East or openly endorsing an inexperience, autocratic, ruler.
3
President Trump is incapable of protecting our democracy because he does not believe in it.
Those devoted to democracy truly believe that’s the inherent and most basic human right.
He does not have the faith either because he would know our personal abilities are the gift from God, not the matter of inheritance.
If the personal abilities could be inherited, then the kingdoms would be the best social order by being perfectly fitted for breeding “the best genes”. The human history teaches us that’s not true.
So, how could I know all of this if I never met president Trump?
I don’t have to know him personally. The farther away I am from him, the better I see his most important traits.
Mr. Trump publically supported the Saudi prince. It means he believes the democracy is not for the Arabs, and by extending this principle, the democracy is not for the people but for the chosen few like Trump, his daughter and son-in-law…
By believing that any prince is the most qualified person to lead the Saudi Arabia, Mr. Trump exposed his lack of faith. No prince is superior to rest of us.
By endorsing prince Muhammed bin Salman Mr. Trump exposed his true inner nature and the hidden wishes…
2
All of this may end up real stupid, as is always the case in Middle East, with all the external players and manipulators on one side, and the endless aspirations of the people on the other.
I think Mr. Friedman buried the lead.
The real story here is contained in his last paragraph. Kushner and Netanyahu working together to get a gullible MBS to stir up a plausible excuse to take Iran down one way or another.
Can't use the same playbook as the neocons used on Iraq...move it off shore and get our "new best friends forever", the Saudis, to do the heavy lifting.
Trump, as useful idiot, will say grace over the whole nefarious mess.
5
What happened to the shah of Iran could happen again in Saudi Arabia
1
To understand the upheaval that is taking place in Saudi Arabia today, you have to start with the most important political fact about that country: IT'S THE MAFIA!
1
Those who tweet obviously like to preach.
Those who google are more interested in the truth and the facts...
I hope that the youth in the Islamic courtiers, including Saudi Arabi, are more pragmatic than dogmatic. That is the only path for Islam as a whole to reform itself. From that point of view, it is good to see that a person like this prince is at the hlem. It would be interesting to see if he backs-off the Wahabism that has stranglehold on Saudi Arabia, and also funds this brand of religion on courtiers like Pakistan. The sooner Islamic countries get off the archaic thinking they are in a stranglehold of, the better it will be for the entire humanity.
President Trump is the collosal embarrassment to America! Nobody sane and patriotic would be supportive of any Saudi prince!
Why?
I just googled the legal marriage age of girls in the Saudi Kingdom:
Here is the news from 2014 that popped up:
“No minimum age for marriage of girls – Grand Mufti.
Saudi Arabia's religious leader, Sheikh Abdulaziz Al Asheikh, has said that he does not plan to restrict the minimum age for marriage for women to 15 years, contravening a recent proposal from the country's Ministry of Justice.”
If president Trump were supportive of “the reformers”, then we would embrace the rule that the girls as young as 15 years could get married...
Unfortunately, Mr. Trump is too busy tweeting to find enough time to google...
2
Question: I would love to hear thoughts on how the Aramco IPO fits into all this—get foreigners to buy up stranded oil assets?
1
This guy's head will be cut off within a year. He is a foolish young man who thinks he is playing a video game, staying up all night with Jared Kushner plotting a power grab that will completely backfire. As long as Kushner gets the financing for his failing business I guess it will be worth further destabilizing the Middle East.
5
The US has not been willing to tell Saudi Arabia the truth since the first barrel of oil was produced there before WWII. Trump has many predecessors in this regard.
2
Perhaps I’m missing something, but wasn’t “the base” Al Qaeda not only a Saudi creation but also very much, armaments and all, a United States’ creation?
3
Actually, it was created by the CIA during Regan years to fight against the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Don't be fooled!
2
I know. I'm just wondering if Tom Friedman and most United States citizens know.
Let’s examine the actions of this youthful prince. He accused several people of harming the country by corrupting the society. The punishment? Sending them over to the fanciest Ritz Carlton. The overwhelming majority of the Americans would consider such a treatment as a getaway weekend after winning some kind of lottery. Is the Ritz Carlton going to sue both Trump and the prince for equating the luxury hotel chain with a prison?! What kind of financial damages could be sought? Those who recklessly tweet obviously cannot comprehend the full consequences of their actions. Supporting a Saudi prince is too risky for any smart person or government...
1
What about Jared meeting with the Prince right before this occurred until 4am? Does this have a hint of #45 involvement??? Just wondering.
6
Can’t president Trump make a clear distinction between the real prison and the fake one? Unfortunately, he is incompetent to differentiate between the real and fake democracy either. Him being in love with the fake democracy is undermining our international prestige and harming the American interests...
1
A thirty two year old power hungry scion is laying the foundation of a global sectarian war. Our know very little Presidential special advisors have laid the foundation to support this effort without any dose of understanding the intricacies of local politics in the ME and it’s larger ramifications.
As is usual behaviour for a bull in a china shop President he will make the USA complicit in a sectarian war that will have no winners. I wish he had the ability to rise above his myopic self absorption of being well read and understand that blustering into this conflict will saddle America with a problem worse than Iraq.
In parallel China will be waiting to encourage & egging the President to pick sides because it services their ultimately long term goal of becoming the global dominant power by saddling the USA with unwinnable conflicts.
1
Yeah Tom, I got an idea for them: They should become just like us Americanians.... with our assault rifle's and Bibles! Then they won't get bored shopping in the mall's, or going to prayer - all the time five times a day - . Also they should get better religion, like ours, because I've seen it on TV and nothing is boring about our religion: we got rants and prayers and stomping and shouting..... at Cetera and so forth.
2
History is a drama - first as farce, then as tragedy.
After Mohammed died so did his Medinan Republic with rights for all. It was replaced by the Kaliphate where power was spread around in the Tribe.
Soon, Kaliphate morphed into monarchy, with one all powerful Kaliph at helm. Upon being selected it was common for him to eliminate his 20 or so siblings. MBS is doing that now.
The Kaliphate/monarchy - a neocon enterprise with gore, glory, conquest, and colonialism, was bad news for world - Muslims, Asia, and Europe alike. Sitting smack in middle of Silk Road, the Kaliphate controlled trade with oppressive Tariffs (Arabic word). Crusades to free trade failed. 100 Famines in Europe around 1300AD starving Christians to half its population. Finally, Europeans found new routes to Asia, and new lands too.
Sunni muscle/Jewish finance kept Europe fighting till Balfour found the silver bullet - Israel - to break this cartel and pitting earlier allies against each other for ever. There has been no war in Europe since creation of Israel.
This cartel withheld world progress for 1,300 years. Once is too much. Now, Netanyahu and MBS joining hands with US neocons - bad news for the globe. Mercifully, China, Russia, Iran will never allow an encore.
Stay tuned for interesting times.
2
Don't count too much on Russia or even China! The best alternative is to recognize the threat and learn to adjust.
There is no good reason to fight, and there is a good reason to spend your fortune on development and trade with neighbours.
Ahh, bin Salman, beware the old palace intrigues. Today you may be hot, tomorrow--not. No due process here. No will of the people. Just one big family and you know family fights are the worst.
3
Unfortunately, president Trump is confusing the real democracy with the tyrannical state and imprisonment of the people without the due process and judicial procedures... Maybe his son-in-law Kushner went to the Saudi Arabia to learn how it is done and gain the valuable experience of dealing within the murky legal system...
2
the new CP has made his peace with the Trump Administration. It is extremely likely they will push him to use his American weaponry against Iran. Very naive and destabilizing for the middle east, and terrible for the muslim world, which is already in deep turmoil.
3
Your words "It’s overreach, and there seems to be no one around to tell him that." are exactly what is happening with Trump, his corrupt administration and our governance system under siege. Appears no one is around to tell Trump to stop either. I'm more than worried too.
2
The family of tribal repressive tribalism is absolute monarchy. I want to ask whether this satisfies the American elites and intellectuals.
2
Shades of North Korea. Get rid of those who would challenge your plans or your vision. In this case it sounds as if the U.S. and Israel are on board. Where is our State Department in all this? Oh, it is almost non-functioning, because Trump is the only one who matters, as he himself said. We need to back off any more involvement in the Mid-East, despite Corporate investment there. Iraq should be the great lesson here.
5
Personally, I think MBS is goading the US into waging war with Saudi Arabia against Iran. Saudis will start it, the US will be dragged in.
MBS sees that at long last there is a president in the US who can be played. It is an opportunity that may not come again, ever. The time for drastic action is now, the pretence is reform, the goal is war with Iran, a long held dream of the Saudis. This will be a royal mess and have dramatic consequences all over the world.
6
I don't think MBS is as anxious as Netanyahu and the necons to go to war with Iran, especially after Yemen.
He has a much greater plans for Saudi Arabia and himself.
This is where Trump's ignorance comes into play. Trump has shown great support for the Lebanese Government of Aoun/Hariri/Berri. Lebanon has been a player in controlling the spread of Qaida and ISIS and has been the recipient of a great deal of US Military assistance. Lebanon is held in a stable position because of the power sharing among the Christian Maronites, the Moslem Sunni and the Moslem Shia, represented by President Michel Aoun, PM Saad Hariri and Speaker Nabih Berri.
The abrupt resignation of Hariri has seriously upset stability in Lebanon. It was done, as Tom says, at the urging of MBS and he, in turn, was given a green light on this move by Trump and his callow son-in-law both of whom do not even know, much less comprehend the intricacies of Middle Eastern politics. You cannot affect one country over there without affecting all of the others.
He likes that MBS is going to be hard on Iran and so encourages a war on Hezbollah and Iran and the IRGC. In the black and white binary world of Trump where all issues have a good and a bad, a black and a white and up and a down, the Middle East does not in any way fit that infantile paradigm.
So by green lighting KSA against Iran, that works destabilizing a good ally in Lebanon. It also works antagonizing Qatar which hosts a large American military base. In the Syria war, the US and Iran are aligned in fighting ISIS.
4
Information, scarce as it is from a highly secretive society, point to an impending civil war. Since the Hejaz belongs to the Saudi family what they do with the Govt money cannot be termed corruption. Now one branch of the family has acted to seize control. It will be naive to believe that the other members of the gargantuan Saud family will be quiet. Expect a rift with the recalcitrant members seeking Iran's help. Picture the mullahs in Teheran salivating; this is their moment.
3
When anyone, be it M.B.S. or Trump, is in a position to cause destruction on a regional or world scale, we all have nightmares.
5
Theses changes in Saudi Arabia came too late and are too sudden.
Given the intricate , widespread and deep roots of religious extremism, the entire area will spin out of control .
The entire world politics and economics will be affected.
4
All you need to know to know that this is an overly brash, unrealistic, and actually, a pretty stupid move, is to recognize that it was, partially at least, recommended by Jared Kushner.
5
Why did Jared Kushner go to Saudi Arabia a day before all this mess broke out. Does he need money for his 666 Tower in NY so he won't go bankrupt? What is he up to?
6
This sort of aggressive behavior is not positive. There is too much turmoil in the region and clearly, patience is not part of the Prince's modus operandi. "Worried" describes it.
3
November 8, 2017
Controlling chaos is one thing but the intent for Saudi Arabia is the move its collective design as a process that is welcome by it populace and interesting not having an ideological adaptation to Iran or its region overall. What is important is for change to demonstrated as we now see; yet of infer design by individual is counter intuitive for the historic reality of this stoic yet its rich feudal bearings, that rejects broader designs of modernity or internationalized polity.
Jja Manhattan, N.Y.
1
Mr. Friedman, I respect the fact that you have spent much time doing investigative journalism in the Middle East and that you have interviewed M.B.S. twice. This has the smell of a tyrant in the making.
1
With "allies" like the House of Saud in Saudi Arabia and the House of Netanyahu in Israel America can ill-afford and does not need foes like Vladimir Putin and Russia and Xi Jinping and China.
Only 20% of the 1.6 billion Muslims are Arabs. While the nations with the most Muslims-Indonesia, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh- have all had female heads of state and government.
The Saudi form of Sunni Islam is the root of the likes of the Muslim Brotherhood, al Qaeda and ISIS, Boko Haram and al Shabbaab.
6
MBS has to survive, in other words not be assassinated, for his reforms, and power struggles to come to any fruition. His rivals are not likely to give-in, esp. the richest among them, who have relied on exploiting Wahhabism to gain wealth and influence.
If MSB can seriously reduce Saudi unemployment, it will have a major impact for him to win the youth. But at the same time he has to reduce the slavery that native Saudis have become spoiled on, and has been integral for their growth and build-up of the nations urban centers and infrastructure.
But he has to survive.
Jared Kushner is close to the prince and probably
influencing his policy direction particularly on Iran.
Prince's firey rhetoric on Iran has more bark than bite.
Saudis and UAE's military performance in Yemen has
been pitiful except killing thousands of civilians,
creating famine and shortage of medicine. It is unlikely
to endear Yemenis to Saudis. If prince's belligerence
lead to war Saudis are likely to suffer hugely. A few
missiles hitting Aramco refinery will set his plan back.
2
We all know that there is one and only one thing that gets Trump and Kushner's attention - self-aggrandizement over all else. And all those who have done business with the Saudi royals know that they are world class bribers. Put two and two together and you get an idea about what must be transpiring behind closed doors and why Kushner was in Saudi Arabia before the Crown Prince launched his latest high stake, highly risky adventure.
5
Big problem for us is are we becoming a Saudi partner and as he does all these tings and gets into bad situations are we the ones that will be called upon to bail him out? There will be big push back from the Iranians and the Saudis and Israelis will expect us to be the policeman. Pick a fight and then call upon us. We have a very unstable and incompetent president and a ambitious military-industrial lobby who would love another war. When your popularity is so bad maybe a national war will help. Then there are the many radicals already created and if they are cut off they will attack. We are 5 trillion in debt for our misadventures in the middle east since 2000 so can we afford more trillions for war, a 1.5 trillion tax cut and pay for billions of disaster repair? Exactly what is in the best interest of the USA?
1
While we can all appreciate the Saudis are finally rejecting the archaic, destructive Wahhabi influence, it is chilling they adopted the Chinese / Russian model for modernity - benevolent tyranny. Opponents disappear in flimsy "corruption" crackdowns, family members assume influence, free press is locked up and harassed (Al Jazeera is based in Qatar) and masses are distracted by inflaming sectarian divides and blind nationalism.
Why? A huge factor is the utter collapse of American moral leadership.
Instead of defending freedom, Trump and gang are doing all they can to enable friendly dictators abroad and apply these profoundly anti democratic principles here.
4
Sadly, we are all afraid to call MBS' ideological shifts into riskier gambits as what it really is - populous Trumpism Middle Eastern style. This purge, Yemen/Syria aggressions, saber rattling towards Iran, and populous domestic reforms are red herrings. MBS' real goal here is iron-fisted control of the economy and military. The purge's victims are facing seizure of assets, thus rendering MBS' political rivals defunct and unable to fund opposition. At this point, Wahhabism is window dressing and defunct. Millennial Saudis do not see a future in Islamic secular traditionalism since it interferes with liberalism. Millennials also blame Wahhabism and its offshoots for legitimizing fascist Islamic autocracy and ideologically underpinning terrorists - Al Qaeda and ISIS. MBS' pessimistic view of Wahhabism is not due to his enlightenment as a religious populist seeking freedom and pluralism. Instead, MBS views Wahhabism as yet another traditional institution threatening his ascent, so he has arrested key Wahhabi donors to starve the clerics into either compliance or obscurity. The problem here is that MBS is seeking to become the first absolute monarch in Saudi history with no broad network of family ties and traditional institutions to check his authority. Jared Kushner has closer ties to MBS than his fellow princes. MBS' aggressive style greatly complicates denuclearizing Iran and Israel/Palestinian Peace, as well as, making Saudi Arabia a greater target of Islamic militants.
3
"To speed up decision-making, he is reshaping the Saudi state — from a broad family coalition where power is shared and alternated among seven major families and decisions taken by consensus — to a state governed by a single family line. This is no longer “Saudi Arabia.” It is becoming “Salman Arabia.”"
Sounds more like the Mafia and the Corleone's.
2
Regarding Mohhamed bin Salman, "Where does his impulse for rapid reform stop and his autocratic impulse to seize all power begin?" Is that a fair question to begin with? Has it been established that "his impulse for rapid reform (will ever) stop and his autocratic impulse to seize all power (will ever) begin?"
I don't think so! THAT, it seems, must be a supposition of the author.
"I raise this point because when you’re making as many radical changes at once, and making as many enemies at once, as M.B.S. is, your robes need to be very clean. People have to believe that you mean what you say and that you have no hidden agendas, because change is going to be painful. Look at what M.B.S. is doing all at once:"
Sounds like President Donald Trump. Maybe "The Don" is a "Sheikh of Arabia in America"? And 2017 is not even over with yet.
1
I am not worried about the Middle East, almost a century long history clearly states that cutting throats and turning things upside down is the hall mark of region. The goal is never be a success or development, Goal is 100% one person eat all agenda.
Just relax and watch it, There is no good come out of Middle east Including Israel.
2
If Salman can impulsively spend $500 million on a yacht, Kushner figures Salman can spend the same amount to bail him out of 666 Fifth Avenue. I wouldn't ascribe any more significance to Kushner's involvement. As for Trump, all that palace gold makes him weak at the knees. Kushner and Trump are grifters, and Salman is willing to be extorted for their cover.
Kushner also is cozying up to Netanyehu because when Mueller is done, Kushner may need to relocate and claim Israeli citizenship. Ivanka can commute with the kids.
2
With due respect, I disagree with Thomas Friedman's misgivings on the whirlwind changes initiated by the young crown Prince Mohamed Salman. His reasoning is myopic and concerns more in elitist American interests rather than popular Saudi or Muslim interests. The Prince is an engineer and in tune with the vast Saudi populace of young people under 35 - - 70% of the population, with substantial numbers having high levels of education, especially from abroad. This segment will run Saudi Arabia for the next 20-30 years . It is seething with anger and frustration at the corrupt old guard. Salman's base is this, and significantly, it is free thinking, progressive and not Wahhabi. Hence the moves to free women from their Wahhabi shackles, such as driving prohibition, is hugely popular.
Being the guardians of the Muslim world's holiest places, Saudi Arabia wields enormous religious and moral influence in the Sunni world, which is 85% of the Muslim world of 1.6 billion people. Pakistan, Egypt and many significant Muslim countries have similar demographics. The youth face similar issues and have similar frustrations, anger and higher unemployment. The young are educating rapidly, and are social media savvy. If Salman successfully pulls it off by 2030, which is his goal, it will spark peaceful, progressive local revolutions If the Sunni youth goes progressive, the Shia youth revolution in Iran will quickly topple the ayatollahs in Iran.
So we should wish the Prince well.
2
I don't care how well M.B.S. was groomed for power, how well-educated he may be, or how well credentialed, no 32 year-old is competent to take the reins of a nation-state, certainly not a significant regional power with the wealth and military power to project its influence internationally.
Young men are in too often in a hurry, and they lack maturity, personal depth, and reservoir of knowledge to be great leaders. Young men have spawned revolutions, but they also exhibit glaring blind spots that are narrowed only by hard earned experience, which is needed to led any revolution on a positive course.
1
What a great article.
There is oil to last at least 50 years, a massive sovereign fund. A yacht here, a yacht there , , , just adds up to another yacht. Not much more.
Kalidan
2
As renewable energy drops in price, that oil will drop in price also.
Kudos to Thomas L. Friedman for his balanced article on Saudi Arabia. One of the reasons for mushrooming of terror outfits, like Al Qaeda, ISIS is largely due to the complicity of Saudi Kings and religious preachers in exporting an extreme brand of Islam to West Asia, Africa, Afghanistan, Indonesia and Malaysia.
Saudi Arabia still continues to enforce medieval practices like public beheading, police excesses, especially the religious police ‘Mutaween,' who have been vested with unbridled power to arrest any who is found to contravene the Sharia law. There is practically no appeal against their excesses.
The present Saudi Prince Mohammad bin Salman has brought few reforms like allowing the women to drive cars, controlling the religious clerics and modernize the society. However, one may question him for arresting his cousins and other family members. His actions literally amounts to a coup d’ état in order vest all power in his own hands. One is not sure, whether the religious clerics and members of his family will gang up to unseat him as only time can tell.
As Friedman aptly put it, in spite of all his foibles, he is the only ray of hope for Saudi Arabia to transform the country from a medievalist past to a modern state.
1
Mohammed bin Salman is historically completely irrelevant figure.
The key problem is a regional animosity between the Saudi Arabia and Iran. To better understand what’s going on we have to compare their anachronous theological confrontation to the fierce competition between the Betamax and VHS video system that raged in the 70’s.
The conflict was over the format, not the essence. While both those technologies were long discarded in the electronic world, the Sunnis and the Shiites have somehow managed to wage the battle over their anachronous models for full 14 centuries.
Who is going to win the battle? The side that manages first to discard the ancient format and embraces the contemporary world. They have to scrap their own versions of the Hadiths that were just the primitive vehicles for transfer of the faith many centuries ago.
Unfortunately, they have failed to understand that the essence of the faith is completely unrelated to those forms.
Who is going to win this competition? The very side that discards the Hadiths first. However, when they do it, they will permanently eliminate the schism between the Sunnis and the Shiites, so all of them are going to be the winners. The question is what side will have more courage to make the first step.
Once it’s done the entire world is going to be more tolerant and peaceful place. We will better understand the essence of faith thus bringing the people together. The true faith never polarizes and antagonizes the folks...
2
The MAGA (Make Arabia Great Again) ambitions of M.B.S. overlook the forest for the trees in President Trump’s overall foreign policy – i.e., the evolving autocracies worldwide that are getting his explicit approval. In his first year in office, our president has either tweeted or telephoned support of various autocratic measures taken by the leaders of China, Egypt, Philippines, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. And, President Trump, who often behaves like he was a monarch, continues to favor the most stringent autocrat of them all – Vladimir Putin of Russia. It is quite obvious that these world leaders recognize that they no longer have to worry about pressure from the leader of the free world about freedom, democracy, human rights, the rule of law, etc. as promoting of these basic American values is no longer important to an inward-looking Trump administration.
1
Well Jack, one could argue that our concern for freedom, democracy, etc. in OTHER countries, has created a vacuum of these values HERE-- in OUR country, over which we can and should have some control. It is not just trump: where were the democrats in Obama administration as some of these fundamental values were under attack by insurgent republicans? Where were the democrats in seeing that war crimes and financial ruination of the bush years actually got punished? what did the dems do as a party to get rid of the EC, raise the 435 member house ceiling to a representational number, pass legislation to make Citizens United a moot case? We best get our house in order before we try to "export" democracy.
1
'' Where does his impulse for rapid reform stop and his autocratic impulse to seize all power begin? ''
Absolute power corrupts absolutely.
Until there is full Democratic reform and full human rights for all, then you cannot call yourself a reformer. It is just that simple.
Everything else is smoke and mirrors and a consolidation of power.
1
'' Where does his impulse for rapid reform stop and his autocratic impulse to seize all power begin? ''
Absolute power corrupts absolutely.
Until there is full Democratic reform and full human rights for all, then you cannot call yourself a reformer. It is just that simple.
Everything else is smoke and mirrors and a consolidation of power.
2
'... President Trump tweeted his applause, saying, “Some of those they are harshly treating have been ‘milking’ their country for years!”'
This statement is all I need to conclude that Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman is likely a malign factor, deserving of no one's support. Praise by the devil is true condemnation indeed.
For all the laudable things with Mohammed Bin Salman appears to be doing with the removal of the 'old guard' order of things and the apparent motive towards modernizing reforms, I will not be convinced that all this is anything more than putting lipstick on a camel. At least not until I see solid evidence Saudi Arabia is becoming a truly liberal democracy, with opportunity for _all_ its citizens.
Those who say progress toward democracy, secularism, academic thriving, rule of law (and away from oligarchy, plutocracy, feudalism fascism and fanaticism, god-story and other dogmatisms) cannot start with autocracy/monarchy should study the backstory of ancient Athenian democracy.
It was prefaced by the benevolent tyrants--Solon, Pisistratus, and Cleisthenes.
Their wisdom was to encourage (a) appreciation of fine art, culture and education, (b) political organizations cutting across narrow local or special interests and (c) taxation forcing the wealthy to be community minded.
Athenian Democracy's prep took a century.
Only fools like Bush/Cheney think USA form of government ("democracy" in name only) can be instantly instituted in century old, non-benevolent tyrannical cultures. "The common people" won't stand and cheer their liberators; and if they do, jockeying aimed at the next autocrat will begin before the parade ends.
Alas--benevolent dictators are rare birds. Friedman's worry is hardly alarmist.
And that is also why Trump/Trumpie autocracy should be resisted relentlessly. He says bin Salmon's foes have been "milking" the country--which is exactly Trump's ambition.
2
'' Where does his impulse for rapid reform stop and his autocratic impulse to seize all power begin? ''
Absolute power corrupts absolutely.
Until there is full Democratic reform and full human rights for all, then you cannot call yourself a reformer. It is just that simple.
Everything else is smoke and mirrors and a consolidation of power.
1
A bit chilling to read of Dr. Friedman's schizophrenic attitude on coup d'état.
He wonders about the "impulse for rapid reform" vs. the "autocratic impulse to seize all power" of the New Prince, but history teaches that rarely does such a dictator turn benign.
Live by the sword, die by the sword seems to be the rule.
The Dr. concludes, "I'm worried", but with Trump weighing in on the side of the New Prince, he should be terrified.
I am curious as to why Jared Kushner made a quiet, off the radar trip to Saudi Arabia on a commercial flight just prior to this shake up...why was he there? Must have been questionable enough so much that he paid for his flight there, not on the taxpayers dime.
15
Excellent column , Tom , except for CSFX's concern about the issue of age and Alzheimers . Aside from that , you have had extensive experience and study of the region making your insights very cogent . I too am worried about the what seems to be the inevitable clash between Saudi Arabia and Iran . It would be cataclysmic and ultimately lead to world war . The only calming thought on that front is MBS's penchant for materialism . He probably wouldn't want that shiny new super yacht to turn to nuclear ash . Hopefully his hasty actions to bring change and at the same time crush any possible challenge to his power will not blind him to the realities on the ground . How important it would be to have a president who was honest , honorable and well-informed about the region at this point in time . tRump's blind backing of the Saudi regime is based on his big commercial coup , selling all those armaments to the Saudis after the orgiastic night of saber dancing with the princes along with his close-mindedness about Iran . He is not balanced mentally , nor politically ; otherwise he would be counseling the Saudis to go slowly and avoid unnecessary confrontation with Iran . The history of the area is enormously complicated and would require tremendous amounts of solid diplomacy to try to unravel the knots of politics and religion that have characterized the Middle East for centuries . Imagine an honorable president of sound mind and a Sec. of State with intelligence and patience !
4
Trump has never been just about power. There's money flowing his way in every deal he makes. And the Saudis have everything Trump longs to achieve in the money department.
Some day, I'll bet historians will see a lot of cash exchanging hands with the Saudis and Trump, Kushner and Co. this past week. Hopefully they won't also have to report huge civilian and ethnic casualties as well.
5
Sunni-Shia tensions have been going on for 1400 years. KSA is no match for Iran in a straight up war. The Iraq-Iran war in 1980-88, that was started when Iraq invaded Iran unprovoked, and forced Iran to build up its military to defend against future sectarian attacks. Who knows what defensive pacts Iran has?
WWI started with this type of ethnic animosity that spiraled out of control. The US has no vital interest in the Middle East except for the free flow of oil, which is not as vital today as in the recent past. The US has no business carrying KSA water in a regional tiff.
4
I guess Saudi Arabia was never a democracy but now it’s headed toward a lone dictatorship. And Trump applauds.
1
Tom Friedman is the best interpreter of Middle East developments in contemporary journalism and he does it because he remains a reporter, describing inherent complexity.
3
Has Thomas Friedman lost it? How can a knowledgeable well informed journalist and commentator possibly say with a straight face that "Lebanon, which had forged a relatively stable balance among Sunnis, Christians and Shiites, is now shaking".
Whatever balance there may have been died the day Hezbollah assassinated Sa'ad Hariri's father Rafiq Hariri, to remove him from the Prime minister's office. Since then Hezbollah has been calling the shots. It made a deal with President Michel Aoun, a former Lebanese army COS. He went from being a Christian nationalist to a Christian quisling. In return for Hezbollah's support for his candidacy for president, he, as Commander in Chief, let them take over the Lebanese army, and allowed them to dictate Lebanese foreign policy, effectively turning Lebanon into an Iranian satellite. Lebanon is not a Shiite majority society, although they are the single biggest ethnic group, they account for approximately 30% of the population.
American liberals have this romantic idea of Iran that severely compromises their rational judgement. They don't seem to realize that the the current regime has more in common with Hitler than Cyrus. Obama decided that if Iran was allowed to become the dominant regional power, it would magically transform from a brutal Islamic dictatorship into a benign tolerant power as it was under Cyrus, the founder of the Persian Empire. Friedman seems to be laboring under this delusion as well.
The Saudis have a single mono product economy which is now an antiquated commodity, they go to foreign colleges & universities, why? Don't they have excellent schools there in SA? If not why? They are not diverse, women are oppressed, and homosexuals are killed. Do they create or invent anything? What patents do they hold that they actually invented, not merely purchased. Do they farm, mine, manufacture anything of value or importance? It seems they are reliant on outside vendors for most of their needs including labor which is imported in and exploited w/ no regard for human rights. They don't seem to have a strong work ethic as a culture....and they think people will go there to shop for luxe products that are designed and made in the West & Asia? Why? Why would a Western women go to a country where women have so few rights? The House of Saud is not our friend, never was, and let's not forget the 9-11 attack.....we know who funded it as well as the schools for terror that they sponsor, throughout Europe posing as religious schools. They are clearly not to be trusted and why are we selling them weapons? As far as that Jared Kushner "boy" goes he has no business representing American interests. Sad to see beautiful progressive Lebanon destroyed due to religious fundamentalists who actually believe that God is on their side. What a bunch of diseased egos.
6
I lived and worked here for a couple of years: KAUST
https://www.kaust.edu.sa/en
It is a great example of Saudi Arabia attempting to modernize and innovate. Don't be too harsh on them. It is a complex country with many factions and agendas.
Donald Trump admires this stuff.
GAME OF THOBES
Mohamed bin Salman al Saud
is doing young Saudis quite proud
sacking all of his rivals
at the point of his rifles,
& amassing more powers than God
1
Excuse me, Tom. Advanced age equals Alzheimer's?
We now have a greatly empowered Saudi Clown Prince who is the architect of a disastrous war on Yemen and who's also responsible for adopting an ever more aggressive posture towards Iran and purging any internal dissent.
This Clown Prince is responsible for all the misery brought upon the civilian population in Yemen, being butchered, starved and cholera stricken to death, yet Mr.Friedman, a limousine liberal extraordinaire by marriage, "found his passion for reform authentic, his support from the youth in his country significant and his case for making radical change in Saudi Arabia compelling."
Certainly bolsters your "I’m worried" argument.
LOL.
Not that anyone really believed that in the first place given your warmongering proclivities, your grotesque celebration of the role of the American military and the fact that you are hobnobbing with M.B.S. and Bibi on what seems a regular basis.
Nothing shows the raging hypocrisy and bought nature of the US Govt than the love the House of Saud receives from politicians of both sides, and pundits like you.
The US are accessories to Saudi barbarism and its contribution to the slaughter in Syria and the intentional starvation of kids in Yemen.
Not only were you a passionate advocate of the Iraq War, but you've always been a passionate advocate of war. It's an over-used phrase, but you actually are a warmonger!
The fact that you can't even decide whether M.B.S. is a reckless authoritarian or not makes this op-ed entirely ridiculous.
6
I worked in the KSA for ten years, 1992-96 and 2009-2015 (and Dubai in between). I never thought I'd see this day. Bully for him--he should arrest all the malevolent imams as well. Keep up the good work!
1
Yes, moving too fast is a danger.
No matter how astute MBS is he is only 32 years old and inexperienced in government.
I lived in Saudi Arabia many years and there is no shortage of smart, naive and inexperienced kids that put too much credence on theoretical solutions. And one more thing, these little princes are easy pray to adulation.
I would not rule out Kushner acting as channel for Netanyahu who is surely encouraging MBS to revolutionize Saudi Arabia. Dangerous stuff.
31
You're finally starting to get it, Tom. No one is pushing each other around in this world anymore, as your past worldview might have it - be it the United States, Russia or Iran, North Korea, Israel or even Saudi Arabia.
The world does not run its show from a golf course any more than it does from the Kremlin or the White House or the board rooms at Citibank or Wells Fargo or the Pentagon TOCs in Qatar.
It doesn't live on flat screen thinking.
God works in mysterious ways, Tom, but His messages are getting easier to read.
Personally, I don't see all this anti-Iran stuff. Sure, they're supporting some nasty, snti-semitic groups, but the Shia have not been nearly as "terrorist" as the Wahabi Sunni supported around the globe by the Saudis.
2
I find it difficult to take seriously the idea of "princes" and "kings" in the 21st century. This includes the Trump children -- and princes and princesses will always be children; that is their primary identity.
2
A sand Trump, the kind of robe-wearing, sandal-footed autocrat Trump himself can only dream of being. M.B.S. will inflame even more war in the Middle East and Trump will not be able to resist. If Saudi oil is no longer needed, it would be in the US interest to just step back and let the Shia-Sunni divide duke it out while we step in only to provide humanitarian aid and a neutral arbiter of the conflict. But Trump's the guy. The next Democratic president will, as usual, have to try to clean up yet another Republican-induced mess in the Middle East.
1
The only reason Friedman is writing about this Stone Age Place is that we are buying their oil. If we had any sense, and the political will to stand up to exxon mobile and become energy independent, which really is possible by the way, our approach to this garden spot, along with the rest of those theocracies in the area, would change overnight.
3
The crown prince MBS is extremely personally wealthy and the regional celebrity. For no real reason he started the conflicts with Qatar and Yemen. He wanted to shut down Al Jazeera as the fake new organization. He created the deep schism within own country overnight. He blames the others for the corruption he is equally guilty of.
The only difference is there is no swamp the young prince wants to drain because of very specific local climate conditions.
Who is his role model? Who endorsed his actions?
1
SA spent the last 70 years buying the best, attending the best (out of their country) but they never built the best. They could woulda shoulda spent all that moola on curing cancer, or being the best at something other than spending money lavishly and stupidly. Now you have a country of people with one of the highest birth rates and a declining revenue stream and very expensive tastes.
Good luck with that.
Don’t you think it is strange that you cannot name a single company, product or anything from wealthy SA other than Aramco?
Oh wait - they are the leaders of funding terrorism.
What a wasted opportunity. Sad
5
Trump, Jared Kushner, and Bibi Netanyahu in one sentence spells trouble not least because no American interest is thoughtfully represented in the mix.
2
I'll say one thing about Saudi Arabia -- they build beautiful detention facilities.
1
Why the reference to alzheimers? It is NOT a synonym for age.
MBS Needs to learn the lessons of history. Hitler's downfall was that he self-destructed because he had no peer. Even a cursory knowledge of history reveals that Hitler's government was a horrendous bloodbath and an overwhelming culture of evil that resulted in WW II. Without a peer, MBS has the potential to fry the planet with a WW III, complete with atomic bombs that can end life on earth. Except, perhaps, for cockroaches, who can thrive with high levels of radioactivity. But the, I don't know what they'd eat if all the rest of living matter died. While MBS Has amassed power, he must realize that the Mideast is a quagmire. By being so aggressive in his actions, he's going to attract a lot of aggression and violence in response. Both from within and outside of Saudi Arabia. One of his forebears, the king, was shot to death. Let that serve as a warning to him. DISCLAIMER I am describing historical facts about the family of Saud. That is my sole intention in writing about the assassination of the Saudi King--to warn MBS to act to safeguard himself and his country.
MBS bears unconscionable responsibility for what is increasingly looking like genocide in Yemen. Why is America supporting his bombing and blockade of that poor country?
1
Articles like this are why we buy the New York Times. I don't think many subscribe for "gotcha" articles like the Panama Papers and Paradise hoopla which are without depth, and are smearing people left right and center, but are obviously good for shallow clicks and fundraising for The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists. I digress, but am thankful, overall. Yes, thanks go to Mr. Friedman and writers like him, there, on Eighth Avenue, and to the New York Times who support this excellence.
Is M.B.S. the Donald Trump of Saudi -- or is Donald Trump the M.B.S. "wannabe" of the US?
2
I wonder how Russia will play this.
1
It's nice to see Tom that you have a fine sense of humor.
Saudi has needed reform for years, whist the likes of UAE and Qatar move ahead with modernization..Saudi response is to build the tallest building, and that was down to Waleed. It will take another 20 years before the generation of Quran bashers see the light..atheism. Anything with the name Saudi, Israel and the USA stinks of lies and death..oh and the rich get richer.
What he does have on his side is the under 30's..he keeps them happy, he has an even bigger army.
The Queen of England is 90 and she is still riding horses and is very well-liked.
81 is just a couple of years more than Nancy Pelosi. Does she have Alzeihmer too and needs to be removed?
Outstanding analysis, Mr. Friedman. You are one of the few who tell it like it is.
MBS seems to think he's Patton. But this isn't the 1940s and Iran isn't Nazi Germany.
Hopefully the Gang (MBS, Netanyahu, Trump, Jared Kushner, and the other Neocon-Zionist figures) will be persuaded that the strategy of "Divide And Rule" only guarantees more wanton and futile bloodshed in a region already decimated by Cheneyesque "Divide and Rule."
Mr. Mohammed Bin Salman, Kim Jong Un, and Donald Trump have one thing in common: It's all about them, they need absolute power, and nothing less satisfies them.
Sultan Mohammed, Leader Kim, and Trump the Great: Happy ruining the world.
Friedman at his best when dealing with he Middle East. I share your concern that the US' blank cheque to the Saudis may have sent the wrong signal. Israel behind them pushing for a regional confrontation will not be doing the US any favours either. Israel and Saudi have been leading the US by its nose for far too long. Trump is merely a 'useful idiot' who can be, and is being, played.
An enjoyable read but bit lavish in praise. More McKinsey, eh? Number cruncher, eh? Bet you got that from the cab driver in Jeddah.
Ok, I believe you (gulp). Whatever. Salman once criticized Obama’s foreign policy in his presence. That makes him a likable fella in my book. Case closed.
1
You know what kind be of article I’d appreciate Tom?
One that begins to explore the reality that the United States and Saudi Arabia are about as far apart as you can possibly get.
After a lifetime of being told that SA is our ally, I really can’t help but feel that is a lie today.
Bibi and Jared helping a viscous thug take over Arabia, bellicosity toward Iran, starvation and privation in Yemen, what could go wrong. Tillerson does not care as long as oil soars.
The fundamental problem in the Arab world is that the Enlightenment has never taken hold of it. All its leaders are authoritarian because their societies cannot sustain the free for all that characterizes Western Democracies without violence ensuing. The basic reason is that Islam as practiced there does not accept a separation between religion and the state so any secular government is forced to suppress a majority religious population or risk being replaced by a religious regime likely to be even more authoritarian (see Egypt).
1
Au contraire, Tom. To halt the Iranian anschluss, MBS must recruit every ally - Israel, Kurdistan, Egypt, America, Iraqi Sunnis - to fight the mullahs and their collaborators - Hezbollah, Houthis, Assad, Baghdad... "Overreach" suggests that moderate measures might suffice. Not when Teheran is making its play for empire. Now is the time for all who would defeat the Persian conquest to put aside their differences and join forces. To arms!
Tom, I know you are worried, but is Trump? We should all be worried with a President whose knowledge base consists of tweet one-liners.
1
Enjoyed reading this piece, because it was clearly and easily explained. Makes me realize a lot of reports today are overly ornate.
Nice, except for the last bit. On “those urging M.B.S. to be more aggressive in confronting Iran (whose malign regional influence does need counterbalancing)...” – here is where the analysis weakens in rather a crucial part.
Iran is already plenty counterbalanced. It is surrounded by US military bases in Jordan, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE, and Qatar. It is subject to threats from both Israel, the only country in the region with nuclear weapons, and Saudi Arabia whose military budgets surpass Russia’s and dwarf Iran’s.
Calling Iran’s influence “malign” is just the current meme favored by the US, Israel and Saudi and is thoroughly baseless.
What was so “malign” about Iran’s coming to the aid of its neighbor Syria after it was threatened by extremist Muslim “rebels”, supported by foreign powers and seeking to topple or destabilize its government?
Is it “malign” of Iran to stand up for the rights of Palestinians or to endorse the creation of a Palestinian state? Hardly.
If there is a malignant influence in the region and beyond, it is surely Saudi itself. As Friedman notes it has for years exported the radical Wahabist teachings which have inspired al-Qaeda, ISIS and all of their ilk. Iran has done nothing approaching that.
If there were responsible leader in the US and Israel, they would be seeking to cure MBS of his irrational hatred of Iran instead of stoking it. Sadly they don’t exist. The region seems headed for a conflagration.
Submitted 6:46am ET
4
This strikes me as a good counterbalance to a jingoistic Likkud line, supported by a minority of American loyalists, but let's not lose sight of the need for containment and monitoring. This is a dangerous neighborhood, as TF has often described the Middle East, so, as in the current column, wariness might well prevail, duly recognizing the slippery slopes of greed and authoritarian rulers.
Let us see whether or not this young Prince has the good sense to end the tragedy in Yemen, a horror in which the United States is complicit.
Enjoying Naan Berenji (Persian rice cookies) with my tea here. You can keep ignoring and dismissing Iran, but please know the ancient civilization is here to stay. It has given our human civilization so many gifts, we cannot begin to count.
2
Right now the Saudi Arabia and the Muslim world are in same time window as the Christian Europe happened to be in 1517 when Martin Luther raised his voice against the distortion of the faith and corruption of the highest ranking religious authorities...
But the royal prince MBS is not even close to being another ML. He is personally too corrupted by his wealth and power...
It has never happened in the human history if we are going to use her as our teacher. It would be the first time that somebody in position of authority willingly denounced his personal wealth and power.
To fix the foundations of any society one has to be very close to the bottom.
Just saying...
1
It seems Jared is more a political force then imagined with extensive ambitions beyond the WH. Jared closed the billion $ Lockheed deal for Saudi getting Saudi the 10% discount they requested sure to be rewarded down the road and could be getting insurance in case Trump's fortunes head south with Mueller, Israel might encourage Saudi to engage in military adventures with Jared's American military at their back, Young ambitious princes could upset the region which is already a time bomb. We shall see,
Jared stands to succeed if Pres Trump is ousted, right? Oops, sorry, wrong Kingdom.
The date 1979 is correct but the statement about Mecca takeover story is not totally correct
KSA has always had a rival in Iran
Hence after 1979 revolution Iran had taken up the cudgels with USA and KSA had a hoenymoon with USA. That ended in 2008 and coffin was nailed in 2016.
KSA will misuse the holy places in drumming the ignorant countries' support in a war if it erupts ...
Psoriasis must be the continuing malady given all the handwringing this columnist engages in. North Korea?! Wring hands. Talk some more.
Perfidious Persians? OMG! Talk to them some more. This is how schoolyard bullies thrive - the cowards and the comfortable counsel accommodation. There are but two approaches - either this country is fully engaged internationally, which includes rejection of "nation-building" nonsense, but includes eye-to-eye confrontation when our interests are challenged - or we become a larger, heavily armed and NON-ALIGNED economic superpower "Switzerland" with no interests outside our own. No foreign bases in areas we do not own or lease, and unshackled by treaty terms. We lease for our purposes, not theirs. No boots on the ground. Huge investments in space, AI, robotics and energy production. Recognize the competition and use all current power - economic, technological, intelligence-gathering - to subvert and dominate the rising Sino enemy. Set marginal tax rates above millionaire status to 85% to modernize infrastruture and provide top-quality health care to all citizens. Close the borders for a minimum of five years. The past is not prologue, unless we succumb to the tired cliches of pundits such as this author. It's a new world. Let's act like we know that.
Four underlying forces are at play. And not just in Saudi Arabia. They will lead to violence and human suffering to the extreme: religious rivalry, tribal rivalry, exponential population grown and the end of oil as the primary world energy resource.
www.InquiryAbraham.com
1
This is indeed a perfect storm with all backstops removed one by one by dark forces to provoke another 70 years of destabilization of the middle east in a never ending war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, reshuffle the politics and make the Palestine issue a secondary one.
It really looks like a scenario for a Star Wars sequel :
- Dark Val-d’Or Trump at the white house with no state department except young Jedi Kuchner who used to play as a child with Seth master Netanyahu
- Trump needs a war badly and soon as probably he views this as the only way to get re-elected
- Voices of dialogue in the galaxy such as Qatar or Lebanon have been quashed
- MBS hound king of planet Saudi wahabism indeed needs a war to create own cult and nationalism
- Iran also would be glad to go to war as this will cement their ayatollah regime
- war with Iran, a real civilization and power will long years will lead to a blood bath between Sunni and Shi’a all over the region and force all moderates to take side
Who will benefit from such as war in theory : dark forces that thrive on war, Israel who will be surrounded by a waste land, and the Trump USA who will monetize their support to the Sunnis
Who will suffer : everybody else
People are still reeling from GW Bush adventurism in Irak. Wait until you see Trump wars. It is going to be huuuge !
Tom, after years of reading your words and thoughts, and watching you on tv, I am concluding you are an eternal pessimist.
1
The Saudi Arabia is impeded by the Hadiths and frozen in the old times.
If the Hadiths were assembled by the mortals and not by God nor His Prophet, then there is no divine connection.
Prerequisite for the divine connectivity would be the belief that the ancient Arabs were the perfect humans making no mistakes, capable of getting in touch with the Almighty and fully understanding the difference between the faith and their culture.
The faith is no culture. Culture is no faith.
Those locals still believing there were many dozens of ancient Arabs who perfectly knew what the faith was are basically the polytheists, something strictly forbidden by the Quran. It is not too late for them to change their hearts and minds.
Use the Quran to dismantle the Hadiths and modernize the Arab world!
In that case we need no wars, no weapons and no boots on the grounds. We just have to motivate the Arabs to accomplish this objective on their own, freely and willfully, if they truly wanted to comply to the Quran...
The Islam actually means to embrace the God words. It does not mean to wrongly and blindly create or supplement them...
1
However this 'Wahhabism' for 40 years was piggybacking on CIA shoulders.
I guess this is not needed anymore. Societies like SA and others withe the overpopulation and the ecological disasters (including pollution) the clock is ticking much faster then for others. It is/was called 'relativity', maybe makes sense here too. Off you go.
The rubber hits the road when the money gets tight. They are so behind the eight ball in terms of reform and structural change that they will be struggling for decades. The recent coup shows the infighting and back biting is at a fever pitch. This combined with their lazy dependence on easy money will result in a unstoppable downward spiral. They will probably start a war to deal with their weakness. The picture looks ugly there. Without their oil gravy train, they are another dysfunctional tribal state on a piece of unfertile desert.
Prof Friedman, do you really expect this fabulously wealthy self indulgent Middle Eastern autocrat to change his stripes? Seriously? A $550 million personal yacht? Seriously?
How is a 550M yacht particularly more distasteful than the same 550M sitting in a bank account? We all (many of us, anyhow) buy toys now and then, it's proportional.
Bill, its not necessarily the personal indulgence, but the arrogance of a family which rules over a country with 25% unemployment. A country where the difference between the rich and poor is staggering. Nothing will change appreciably under this young man. Radical departures from established norms will not be allowed.
Would a coup d'état be so terrible? If nothing else a coup would force Saudi Arabia to be dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century.
Power corrupt, absolute power corrupts absolutely. When things don’t go his way, he’ll flip. The yacht buy tells you all you need to know.
11
The powder keg has been there for all to see, now the man who just might dare to light it has the matches.
3
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and question of coup d'etat or increased authoritarianism or reform or combination of such in Saudi Arabia?
The similarity between the crown prince and elites everywhere across the world is far more telling than events in Saudi Arabia. It appears elites everywhere have little faith in their respective nations, that they are on one hand controlling for far right impulses but do not really believe in success of left wing impulses. Elites typically speak of being against right wing impulses and for development along more moderate lines if not far left lines, but their behavior speaks far more loudly than anything they have to say.
Their psychology cries distance, protection, separation from masses, transnational corporation, tax haven, etc. They all seem to demonstrate breakaway psychology, to increase control within respective nations (authoritarianism) and to divest from nations at the same time. All the while speaking of reform, justice, equality, public spectacle of development of society.
Saudi Arabia promises to be an exquisite spectacle of this worldwide elite phenomenon. Incredibly wealthy monarchistic elite faced with as far right a society as you like promising reform, but at the same time with incredible distance from public, ready to bail on yacht at moment's notice. The billionaires with their advice, their solutions, but always on the next jet to new place. Oh, where is the hiding place? The Yacht at Sea, a novel.
2
A terrific column, but...
Mr. Friedman asserted that recent kings were afflicted with Alzheimers disease. Yet the only evidence he gives to support this assertion is their age.
I am concerned that Mr. Friedman's assertion is grounded a conclusion that has long been discredited - the conflation of Alzheimers and age. Alzheimers is a disease. Age is a stage of life.
It is neither fair nor helpful to people with Alzheimers or to older people to use such careless labeling. I do hope Mr. Friedman acknowledges this error.
8
It's a palace coup. The sort of thing that happens when a country's leaders aren't chosen by its people.
2
The majority of Saudi citizens 60% are educated in madrassas and are not trained for anything other than terrorism and proselytizing.
The smart ones leave and are educated abroad (more than 60,000) here in the US every year
And guess what-they don’t return
All those trillions and what did they do with it?
1
Frankly, I’d rather put my money on Iran. A much more civilized society. And what have they really done to harm us? Took our people hostage 40 years ago?
This Iran paranoia is all due to Saudi Oil...
3
Friedman's dispatches from the Middle East are too breathless for my tastes. Next time tell us why we should be hoping for this vicious autocrat to succeed? It looks like he claims for himself the right to lock up, expropriate, & kill anyone in his country at his personal whim while he's responsible for the rolling crime against humanity in Yemen. Maybe the world will be a better place if he crashes & burns. This is Saudi Arabia's ' Night of the Long Knives'. This is about power. This is about a consolidation of authority & wealth. That's it. It looks like the Saudi elite were about to flip on the king & his son & someone found out. Things can only go one direction from here on out...down. How far & how quickly depends on how impulsive M.B.S. is. The sudden purge of many of the country’s most internationally recognizable businessmen, with worldwide partnerships, is likely to raise the political risk of doing business in Saudi Arabia & shake international investor confidence just as it is needed more than ever in the run-up to the much-anticipated partial IPO of Saudi Aramco, the state oil behemoth. Unfortunately this coup won't break the Saudi people free of the endless cycle of being run by either nitwits or religious fruitcakes. M.B.S. is not a reformer, he's a greedy autocrat. He will give birth to a more moderate Saudi Islam as long as he can get away with buying $500 million yachts. With oil being depleted at a rapid rate this doesn't seem like a good long term strategy.
5
It is possible to fix the Saudi Arabia with a single touch, literally overnight! The rest would be just a matter of time!
We have to understand what created the problem...
That’s an extremely conservative country because the Saudis believe God wants them to live in such a way.
Our jobs is to prove such a notion wrong. The problem could be fixed if we were capable of understanding their system of values better than they do.
To change the Saudi society we have to enlist the help of the Koran. The Saudi Arabia is not conservative because of the Holy Book, but because of the Hadiths, the human addendum to the faith.
By definition, the faith is what comes from the Almighty. What the humans create is just the human culture. There cannot be a sign of equation between the faith and the culture.
Thus it’s critical to prove the Hadiths only depict the ancient cultural habits from the Old Age. When you prove it, they you free up the locals to modernize their lives. At that moment they understand God does not require them to be faithful to their medieval habits and dogmas.
Proving the essence of this case takes only few sentences. The Prophet Mohammed brought the Holy Book. He personally never dared to add to God’s words. It was done by the ancient Arabs after Mohammed death.
If the Hadiths were assembled by the mortals and not by God nor by His Prophet, then there is no divine connection.
The ancient Arabs weren't the perfect people nor divine in understanding of true faith.
3
MBS had better watch his back. He's removing money from wallets and clerics from their mosques. A very dangerous course of action in a Kingdom where previous changes have come at a snail's pace.
1
The fact Jared Kushner was there partying til all hours of the morning is suspicious. Trump doesn't hate Muslims. He has financial interests in the Middle East and doesn't want competition. Jared is there to ensure the contracts are signed, sealed, delivered. Trump doesn't want a wall. It's rhetoric. He doesn't want anything to happen except fatten his bank accounts and broaden the scope of his gold plated empire. He doesn't care that his inner circle is crumbling. He is spending government $$$ left, right, and centre and laughing at the people. He doesn't care that health care won't change, or the infrastructure needs updating. He doesn't care about America. It's all about him. And he is in bed with the Saudis to ensure this happens.
7
So what's Jared Kushner's role, goals, game. For that matter, what's his title/position other than son in law. He shows up in the Middle East on his own mission (whatever that is), then he's pictured in South Korea as father in law makes his big speech (I'm sure it's the greatest, the best since Lincoln).
Friedman says the Trump family wants to push MBS into a war. So please explain why? Couldn't Jared just stick to kleptocracy?
1
There is always money in war- lots of it. And, Trump- Kushners will get a big cut of that pie- bigly.
Are we fighting ISIS and Al Qaeda and Boka Haram yet arming, and supporting the source of their beliefs? Is Iran the source of world terror or Saudi Arabia?
MBS and Bibi want a war with Iran. Trump wants a war with Iran?
The destruction of Saudi Arabia from within is likely. MBS will have to stage mass executions and has Wahhabi princes, generals, bankers, and oil executives to answer to before he can emerge victorious.
In the meantime, everyone will eventually be confronted by our American history of coddling Saudis who funded and provided the Wahhabi cult fanatics that have attacked us on 9/11, and since. Visions of the Bushs embracing the Saudi tyrants and the attacking Iraq at Saudi suggestion. Dick Cheney hypnotizing America into fearing Al Qaeda in Iraq and utterly neglecting multitudes of Akl Qaeda, and Wahhabi fanatics among the princes and people of Saudi Arabia. The extent of lies and deceit that has shielded Saudis fall on the shoulders of both parties, our financial, defense, and oil industries and the “free press” that has failed to emphasize the insanity of our alliances, the tragedy endured by Iraq, our soldiers wounded and dead, the vast waste of tax dollars, and the continued addiction to oil, and the hatred of oppressed people who are the victims of this corrupt, immoral alliance.
I’m worried too. Who are our untainted leaders that can restore American integrity, end oil addiction, and crush the Saudi hold on world finances?
1
The last time Oil was over $100 a barrel the wheels just about came off of the world economy. Should the Saudis start or become involved in a large scale war with Iran or Iraq the world could be in a hot mess very quickly.
The other thought I would pass along is that you cannot slowly lift the lid off of a pressure cooker and not expect things to go well.
1
Very insightful article. The plan seems to be to start a big war between Saudi Arabia & Iran. The whole Middle East willblow up & the ultimate winner will be Bibi Netanyahu & Israel. This 32 years old Crown Prince is not a redeemer or a reformer, but a usurper & very much a victim of the powers that are using him as a puppet to sow discord in the remaining countries of the Middle East . MBS will be the lead actor in the last scene of the so called 'Arab Spring"
3
A very important point missing in this article is the destructive alliance of Israel and Saudi-Arabia. Hatred of Iran is so strong that drives these two countries to make decisions that make the region more unstable and they both have the support of "senior advisor" Jared Kushner
3
Where in the press is there more information on Kushner’s recent visit with MBS? Is Kushner learning about how to round people up and throw them into hotels? His daddy-in-law owns hotels, remember?
2
Very interesting column, Mr. Friedman. I prefer a nationalistic Saudi Arabia to an ultra-religious Saudi Arabia any day and I wish MBS good luck to modernize his country and allow women to drop those horrid black robes, drive, and live normal lives...like in the South of France where he likes to vacation. Nationalism is good, here or there or anywhere, nothing wrong with it as long as you don't go overboard to conquer neighboring countries.
14
That yacht sure makes me pause. It should make all of us pause. With some exceptions, rich people do not make good statesmen.
7
True, because they are in it for the money.
The parallels and similarities in current global geopolitics is disturbingly similar to the decades leading up to WW II.
Voters and citizens of various nations are responding to nationalistic political leaders calling for secure borders, blaming immigrants who are the "other" for problems in their societies.
It is telling when even the Kingdom begins a political shuffle, accompanied by a seismic shift in sectarian matters away from extreme fundamentalism. Whether M.B.S. is merely shuffling the deck chairs on a troubled ship, or a true change in his society after 38 years of Wahhabism remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, Prince Vlad the Invader dreams of returning Mother Russia to its past days of USSR status in the World, while Hu and Xi seek recognition and equivalence of China as a modern superpower.
The shifts in geopolitical power and politics in the early 21st Century have been seismic. If feckless American political leaders continue their clueless, self-absorbed ways, we may find ourselves left in the lurch.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it occasionally rhymes without reason.
Thank you for giving an excellent analysis of Saudi situation - there is very little in depth discussion on this subject in our media. Saudi Arabia is an important force in global terrorism - Fareed Zakaria repeatedly warned us that until Soudi Arabia and Pakisthan become involved in the solution this mess can not be solved. MBS is at least started addressing this issue.It is necessary that Trump administration will support him. The second plan of replacing Wabhaism by nationalism is an integral part of this power shift - without any binding force all reforms will create a chaos as it happened in Russia and the reform process will be taken over by the crony reformists. So far it seems the steps are in the right direction - but his personal financial deals should be clean and transparent. I do not know MBS understands the importance of this point - if he start loosing the trust of younger generation, he will loose the grip on power. He will become like Sissi, another dictator - only military can keep him in power.
1
The Iran/Saudi war is already afoot. It is a modern war, fought by proxies at this stage. I can see why an 80 year old King might want a younger man to supervise such a situation. And, I'm sure lots of thought went into just how to announce the passage of the Saudi car keys to the kid to the outside world...and the outraged members of the royal family that will be passed over for positions of power and wealth.
But, that doesn't matter. Now is the time to snipe and second guess, unless one lives inside the Saudi boarders, of course.
To put it politely, Mr Friedman doesn't have the best record regarding Middle East prediction. He supported the 2003 invasion of Iraq and misunderstood the "Arab Spring" completely. So, I don't understand why his judgement of the Saudi coup counts. But he does edge up to the real issue.
Is there any way America can avoid pouring more blood and treasure into the Middle east? And, are we backing the wrong side...again?
It is pretty obvious why Obama began a rapprochement with Iran, while attempting to remain a Saudi ally. But it is just as obvious that President Trump has chosen sides. Perhaps a Saudi/Turkish/American alliance can stabilize boarders, but I don't see why or how. The US electorate will not pay the price required to stabilize the Middle East. The only question remaining is, will the electorate pay the price to occupy what once were Saudi oil fields? And, if that is the question, who cares about Saudi politics.
2
>The only question remaining is, will the electorate pay the price to occupy what once were Saudi oil fields?
Could you put that in terms of price per gallon at the pump?
"Perhaps a Saudi/Turkish/American alliance can stabilize boarders, but I don't see why or how."
Unfortunately, these days the Turks' position are miles away from any US position/decision on ME and their alliance with the US in a regional conflict is not guaranteed. For good reasons, President Erdogan believes that the US was either directly involved or knew about the recent coup against his government and chose to remain silent. In fact the relation is so bad that Mr. Trump was discouraged to visit Turkey in his ME visit. And then the Turks gave prime minister May a cold shoulder, when she visited Ankara to patch up the US-Turkey relationship.
MBS may be in a hurry, and his shakeup of Saudi Arabia may be admirable, but he's making a lot of enemies as well as friends like Friedman and his planned reforms may be too late to save the monarchy -- if he survives.
1
Great article with eye opening analysis. This new leader in KSA, needs to follow what he preaches. He is impulsive, power hungry, and
uncaring of human lives in Yemen. If he fails amend these shortcomings, he will definitely follow the footsteps of other despots in history.
1
America should better understand our role of older brother.
It means our siblings should behave and act similarly to us, adhere to the identical set of principles, have the mutually cordial relationship and very good family ties.
If they refused to act in such a way, we should sever our relationship with them till all of them dramatically improve.
If we are not personally capable of acting fairly, justly and with dignity, then we are directly responsible for all the improper behavior of our siblings. They are just the mirrors depicting our own shortcomings.
We are supposed to set the good standards for them, not otherwise. We cannot let them bring us down to their level! The older brother always sets the standards! If not, we are just a younger sibling in such a relationship!
1
C'mon, this is a palace revolution by someone who otherwise would have had an "accident" in the next 1-2 years.
MbS is fighting for survival against his rivals.
The kingdom will not change much, only the power will shift to a place closer to MbS while a few of his enemies will have "accidents" or will die of sudden illnesses.
Over the past 23-30 years a cold civil war has grown in the kingdom, run by acts of terrorism little to not reported outside the kingdom, and now there is one faction that is trying to secure its place in the seat of power.
In real life MbS is a hard liner like most of his adversaries.
The major test will come when he is cornered in a way that will leave him no other option than to go to war against a foreign enemy.
But that war is what he is running towards anyway.
The war MbS started against a perceived enemy in Yemen has not delivered the required image of a victorious fighter in Allah's name so MbS needs a bigger and more powerful enemy which he sees in Iran.
And in order to make certain that at least at home no much opposition will happen to his plans of war, he has tried to get rid of his opponents.
But sadly, this is not about cleaning up at home, this is about getting rid of any opposition for his war against Iran.
Let go of all these fantasies of enlightenment and change, MbS is only preparing a war to end all wars against Iran.
2
I don't know the politic of Saudi Arabia and the Middle East, but just the fact the crown prince is taking advice from Trump, Kushner and Netanyahu is very worrisome, and the fact that anything those three support is suspicious.
I want to see the prince's effort at reform successful, and the world needs a stable and forward looking Saudi. But the Trump brand of world view is negatively impacting affairs outside of the United States. It goes to show the importance of Americans taking care of their own house for the well being of the whole world.
4
could mr. friedman do a follow up on precisely what jared kushner discussed with m.b.s.? given the reports that the jewel of kushner's flagship commercial property is submerged in debt, one wonders if jared was seeking financial assistance from the entrepreneurial m.b.s. to ensure this underwater commercial property isn't sold at a 'fire sale' price. pardon my cynicism, but the trump / kushner traveling road show seems to have the 'whiff' of enriching the family brands.
I have been hoping to read an explanatory column like this one because I have been unfocused on the Saudi Arabia situation. Basically - oh well, let them fight amongst themselves. But in the back of my mind I have been feeling that we are on the verge of a large scale conflict between the forces of Saudi Arabia and Iran. It sure seems that with trump's support the conflict has leaped closer to reality. Trump would love to have war breakout on the peninsula as another way of deflecting his inevitable conflict with the American people over his apparent historic and current bond with Putin's money. Trump is trying to play one fanatic against another fanatic. For Trump this play looks easy - like regime change or keeping the dominos standing.
1
I am interested to see how this unfolds. Thank you, NYT for following the developments. However this goes, he needs to stop terrorizing Yemen.
Those urging M.B.S. to be more aggressive in confronting Iran (Trump, Jared Kushner and Bibi Netanyahu) all have their own agenda. In particular, Trump (who thinks he is very smart) thinks that a war between SA and Iran means many oil fields on both sides will be wiped out. And that would Make America Great Again.
That would surely allow US oil companies - with their vast Shale reserves - and possibly himself (assuming Reuter's report that Putin has sold part of a Russian oil company to be true) control the world energy markets, set oil prices, and become extremely rich.
Interesting that Trump's visit to Saudia Arabia included a multi million dollar arms sale to them. Kushner was just there a few days ago. I'm guessing Trump was in on this scheme. The calls against Iran, the support of Isreal. It all fits. Trump is promoting a ME war. Think what that will do for our military complex and oil profits? Trump is not just an American disaster, he is proving to be a global disaster as well.
A pretty good write-up by Friedman, but he only hints at what ought to have been a key point: namely, that MBS is driving and the US is merely along for the ride. That should more than worry us--it should be setting off alarms among foreign policy watchers and practitioners.
It should, in fact, cause us to slam on the brakes and completely re-orient our Middle East policy. Instead, we have an administration enabling and doubling down on a Middle East agenda that can probably best be described as an anti-Iran fever dream. It leads to the oft-repeated point of view that only one side's influence is "malign" and in need of "counterbalancing." I wonder, do Americans truly support the inherent direction that this POV is leading us? Why are we 'all in' for the MBS agenda? Or is it more accurate to say that our administration is winking along with moves that we would never stand by once their downside ramifications see the full light of day?
Consider: most Americans couldn't find Qatar on a map, thus, the very serious rift between Qatar and Saudi Arabia shook foreign policy wonks and not many else besides. In my view, the architects of these dangerous maneuvers--understood to include our own inept leaders as willing accomplices--ought to be very worried, indeed. Mr. Friedman, a sincere and humble suggestion for your next column: please outline the most practical and precipitous measures our country can take right now to back away from the slow-boiling mess of MBS et al.
48
Perhaps you're just using an ill-considered figure of speech, but your statement that "Somebody had to shake up the place" is dangerous because of its broad applicability. A wish to "shake things up" seems to have been the reason that many voted for Donald Trump, with disastrous consequences. MBS's moves may improve Saudi Arabia, but, in general, shaking things up does not necessarily (or even usually?) lead to improvement. Reasoned, reforming progress does.
2
I often refer to The International Mafia Top 1% Global Financial Elite Robber Baron/Radical religion Good Old Boys' Cabal who are trying to consolidate power and take over the world with their inherited/stolen wealth. Some scoff at me.
Bloomberg News ran an article about some of the people recently outed by the Investigative Journalists' reported Paradise Papers. Please read the article and see if you are still scoffing. This is just the tip of the ieceberg, as were the Panama Papers. This is what happens when WE THE PEOPLE around the world allow our lawmakers to pass laws that only serve the financial elite. They find new ways to steal from us.
NOW is the time to stop them.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-07/the-paradise-papers-d...
43
Saudi Arabia like the rest of the world needs openness, transparency and inclusive governance. Whatever MBS is doing will definitely fail as he he is not involving the public, even authoritarian regimes needed openness and inclusiveness to build prosperity. The best analogy is that Saudi Arabia is going through a form of cultural revolution similar to what happened in China half a century ago, the hope is that one day the regime will right its course and start leading the population rather than the current patriarchal form of governing. It will certainly get much worse before it’s gets better, if ever. I share Tom Friedman worry.
9
A paramount topic. Good editorial.
An important ism was omitted. To my mind, it's Authoritarianism, which appears to be raising its perennial head again. One has to believe that the concentration of power in one person's hands indicates, that decision making will be extremely subjective, and difficult to understand.
Prince Alwaleed, one of those arrested was a major player in US markets and held many shares in companies like Facebook and Apple. He's as much Silicon Valley and Wall Street as he is Riyadh. So what gives? Does the authoritarian also want control of some of our major corporations, or does he want to cut us down by causing a major selloff in our markets? Somehow use the monies from those sold companies to surreptitiously buy American defense businesses? Use his behind the scenes influence to build a superior force to attack Yemen and others?
As usual hindsight will be 20-20 for our 2020 presidential candidates.
21
Perhaps he is merely cleaning up the perenial warmongers in the region who keep a steady stream of arms and munitions going into certain areas, and as long as the profits flow, they do not care about the volume of blood flowing at the same time, so, for their allowing the West to do this to their Nation and Peoples, Prince bin Salman is being The Scourge and cleansing the filth from the high places...yet again.
This sort of thing goes in cycles, as we all know, and will set things up for the next 80 or so years to come. Hopefully he will break the backs of the arms dealers and say No More Weapons for Oil, give us Gold, at fair value, no more floating petrodollar that was based on a false scarcity to begin with, and going to only a select few with most of the rest of the nation living little better than they did 100 years ago, in many cases worse than they were since there is an overpopulation without the jobs.
But if he can walk the narrow line, he can save the world a Lot of Grief, and save many Nations a lot of money from not buying weapons that they really do not need, but the bigger nations, in laying false flag attacks, force them to see the need for the weapons, and the high prices as The Bribe that keeps the bigger bite away. They are not stupid, yet our own people in power sure seem to be in not recognizing what is happening right in front of them.
Then the question is how would US respond if a war breaks out between Saudi and Iran? If US gets involved, it is likely that Russia may get involved as well. All this means nuclear warheads on Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel and beyond. Iran’s geography may tolerate one or two bombs but what about Israel and Saudi Arabia? I think Netanyahu has the same disease as Saakashvilli of Georgia displayed by overplaying the hand. I don’t think an attack on Iran will end without the use of nukes or germ and chemical weapons. MBS is too young and drowned on power to realize the consequence. Unfortunately Kushner and Trump are the other light weights but extremely greedy factor in this drum beat of war.
19
The US is already flying bombing missions over Yemen. Is there any question who they will support if more hostilities break out? Also, do you really believe any of this has taken place without the expressed approval of the US? It was no accident Kushner was there before this most recent wave arrests took place. Also, keep in mind that he began throwing people in jail more than a month ago with absolutely no explanation. Possible that Kushner told him to come up with a reason this time?
1
So the Muddle East and Saudi Arabia go out of control at the same time. This certainly is a great change from the last 70 years. Maybe there needs to be a final reckoning, an end to several centuries of Sunni-Shia conflict, a spike in oil prices (good for alternative energy investment). Why should Friedman worry?
The region has been a sinkhole for American foreign policy and the time has long been postponed for the US to turn its attention toward China and Russia. The future of the world does not any longer longer reside in the oil producers in the Middle East, but in East Asia and Europe. There will be many unemployed "experts" in the State Department whose expertise has resulted in nothing tangible for nearly three quarters of a century. It's time to focus on the real geopolitical factors that affect the US and Western democracies.
7
Trump endorses MBS for the wrong reasons: Trump assumes (wrongly or rightly, we don't know yet) that MBS is an autocrat - and Trump feels kinship with most autocrats.
12
This seems like Xi's anti-corruption agenda, in which battling corruption isn't really the agenda. The war in Yemen is causing the Saudi government to lose even more support in the West. There should be a peacekeeping force sent to the Saudi-Yemeni border, which would pacify the Saudis to a degree. And relief efforts have to be stepped up. However, leftists who proclaimed that Russia was justified in doing what it did in Syria because it was invited there by the "legitimate government" cannot now turn around and criticize Saudi Arabia in Yemen. (The Houthis are no angels and, like their Iranian patrons, chant "Death to America!")
For those who complain about religious medievalism, here is what MBS said about the social future of the Kingdom: "We are returning to what we used to be, to moderate Islam, open to the world and all religions." Indeed, he has "curbed the religious police, sacked thousands of imams, and launched a new Centre for Moderation" (The Economist). It isn't certain that Saudi Arabia will achieve the goals set out in Saudi Vision 2030 or continue on a path of relative moderation, and reformers have their work cut out for them, to put it mildly.
There are grounds both for worry and for optimism with MBS. One minor thing: I think the year 1979 is correct, but it wasn't just the Grand Mosque uprising but also Khomeini's revolution in Iran that prompted the exportation of Wahhabism. And it went sky high with the Soviet-Afghan war, with the help of America.
8
>And it went sky high with the Soviet-Afghan war, with the help of America.
That's us, we're always trying to help out!
All this is why I am an isolationist. There must be a hundred major players in the Middle East, all of whom consider themselves the rightful possessors of power and the oil.
America, come on home. Bring our troops home. Let the Sunni and the Shia work out their civil war. Our meddling has made just about everything worse. We created ISIL when we invaded, criminally, Iraq.
Sure, I am just shouting into the wind, or commenting into the fog, but so what? I look at all the men and woman trying to survive living under local bridges and in the woods, and I see the trillions being spent on stupid wars, and I just have to raise an impertinent finger and say...I just don't care about all this foreign intrigue.
Heal the poor and the sick at home. Stop spending time and money on insane conflicts we cannot change for the better.
Please.
Hugh Massengill, Eugene Oregon
23
Only in Saudi Arabi would those "arrested" for "corruption" be incarcerated in the Ritz-Carlton...I don't think that we in the West fully understand the Saudi meaning of the words "corruption, arrest or incarceration" at least for the royal family. As far as Saudi 2030, MBS realizes that Saudi will not "move forward" if they continue to subjugate one-half of the population (a significant number of which are exceedingly well educated) but Saudi women must take an active role in this process and not depend on royal decrees...Inshallah.
5
Coup de etat, of course. The Saudi royal family has become bloated and, with oil prices low and likely to stay that way, there is less money to buy their loyalty than there used to be. In the end, I suspect most of those arrested will end up in London, Paris or Manhattan on a generous allowance, with the understanding that they will be cut off entirely if they open their mouths or do anything remotely contrary to the Crown Prince. It will be a gilded exile.
4
Is M.B.S. the Henry VIII of the 21st century?
I've been watching the Tudors and, along with pseudo-history and a lot of sex, there is a strong message of how politics and religion intertwined when the Catholic church was powerful and predominant. Is it possible for this Saudi prince to establish moderate Islam in his nation and in the other places where the wealth and power of the Saudis have great influence?
Of course, that wasn't what Henry VIII had in mind when he rejected the power of the Vatican. Years of turmoil followed until the principle that the church should be separate from the state took hold. Is that even remotely possible in the Middle East?
4
More to come...and while one hopes it will be for the best, the signs are ominous. Very ominous.
5
Ominouser and ominouser. Gees I miss Dubya.
seems like a coup and if he survives a stronger alliance against iran with trump and bibi could lead to a major confrontation. isis is a bit player that can cause a lot of damage will be on the sidelines. seems much depends on if trump decides to take action on no korea first or see what sanctions accomplish if he is successful in getting china on board. the most challenging of times and trump is the most powerful figure with a seemingly inexperienced team under him. i hope that he will act of advice from kelly matis and mcmaster. seems to me that's the best chance we have to make the right decisions
Thank you, Mr. Friedman, for your crystal clear analysis of the
new Laurence of Arabia, id est M.B.S.
No joking this time; it will probably not end well, for the Crown Prince.
It is not possible to survive (and I mean physically) in a desert country
where the use of knives and poison are common, when bridges between
families have been blown up.
1
What will happen to all the people he's arrested? Will they be imprisoned or executed? The old guard isn't going to stand for that, I think. "Needs to broaden his base" -- for sure, but how? His base is young people influenced by the West; everyone else is against him. And how is Saudi Arabia suddenly going to become a place where citizens actually work and create things, as people must do in countries that aren't awash in black gold? Where's the cultural background for such a development? It doesn't exist.
War with Iran would double or triple the risks. This young prince is playing a very dangerous game, and I bet he ends up not just defeated, but dead.
4
Time will tell if the young prince is successful or if he's going to push things too far. His country will tell him when he's gone too far as will his neighboring countries. In the meantime we've made enough of a mess in the middle east and need to stay out of it. We can express concerns but need not take further action.
Agreed, we should stick to doing what we do best, selling armaments to everyone.
I certainly hope Saudi civil society becomes more educated, tolerant and inclusive. And that their economy evolves to support that. And that their governance becomes more democratic. However, the tendency to wag the dog of war is a bad sign. And before we get too giddy about what a reformer MBS is, let's remember the earlier wave of more secular Arab leaders of the late twentieth century: Saddam Hussein, Moammar Gaddafi, Hafez el-Assad... I hope what we're seeing will lead to something more like Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia than Iraq, Libya and Syria. At this point, I wouldn't dare to guess. Trump's approval or the crack-down (lock her up) is a bad sign, but I wish the Saudi people well.
For a while I've thought it too obvious, but just like the Administration's foreign policy stumbles in Asia, North Korea, and now the Middle East, one thing is apparent: our President, who does not read and has a very short attention span, gets all of his information from superficial TV broadcasts which at best scratch the surface, and he relies on a quick take and his gut to make decisions thus his gut decisions have no internal consistency, are popular with his base which has the same approach of superficial understanding, a quick take, followed by a gut reaction, and miss every nuance and fail to understand the needs of his negotiating partners. This might work in real estate deals where he has a long and deep understanding of the way those deals function, but he is clearly out of his depth in international relations. He might be of some value to the General Services Administration (GSA) as it negotiates for its next office-site acquisition, but he has made hash of our alliances, and is on the verge of bringing the American Century (which straddled the 20th and 21st Centuries) to an abrupt close as punch drunk and reeling, having already given China the keys to the Pacific, he paves the way for world Chinese hegemony.
3
I agree that a dislike of reading, a short attention span and dubious information sources may lead to less than desired decisionmaking and results. Compare that to previous administrations, which often developed similar outcomes while employing Ivy League wunderkind. Different, sure, but to what degree?
There is one aspect of the current situation in Saudi Arabia which Mr. Friedman doesn't mention. The country ran a budget deficit of $100 billion in 2016, and will be running another deficit, just as large this year. They're currently borrowing to keep the country running.
It's not just the falling price of oil, but also the ongoing war in Yemen, which is costing KSA a fortune.
The IMF speculated earlier this year, that KSA would go bankrupt, if this continues for another five years.
I suspect that the embargo on Qatar, is also costing KSA a fortune.
1
Decades ago, the West German government imposed a swift and jarring as opposed to a slow and fluid “reunification” on the people of the East. Despite the billions poured into the East for the sake of restructuring and appeasement (the so-called “solidarity tax”), there is still a significant imbalance as well as resentment. This is because many people’s lives were utterly uprooted in ways that money cannot compensate.
Germany was lucky. Not only did they have strong support from their neighbors, they also had West Germany as a solid political and economic anchor to hold the ship from the rocks through the inevitable storm.
While I certainly wish Saudi Arabia safe passage to the New World, I wonder from what I’ve experienced firsthand here in Germany whether the Kingdom currently has the ship, maps and the crew necessary to successfully navigate such treacherous waters, or just an overconfident captain.
2
Tom’s worry about a new catastrophic war in the Middle East is quite justified. Trump, Kushner and the rest of the hawks may have a strong urge to push M.B.S to start a war with Iran in order to deflect attention from the Russian collusion investigation.
4
Great analysis it's super huge news, you were totally wrong on the Gulf War in 2004 and your support for it (sorry, hard to forget), but pointing out how huge what is going on is the right thing to do. Seems like a coup d'état to me, but hopefully ending the extremism from within will help stop the exports. Hard to imagine them all going quietly, hence the provocation with Yemen accusing Iran. Nothing like starting a war to further enhance power. I'd imagine Trump will be doing something similar soon, I wonder if he'll "Lock 'em up", in the newest Trump Hotel in Washington DC.
Crown Prince Mohamed has been wrong to deal so harshly with the Yemeni people. If he wants his name to shine in history, he wiull correct that as his first priority.
Thinking about palace politics in regimes that depend on families and individuals, as has been the case for most of humankind's political history, I guess -- purely guess -- that the arrests were pre-emptive.
Instead of allowing a coalition against him to prosper, he has used the fight against corruption as a mechanism for securing power (as is occurring in China).
Well, arresting people is more humane than putting them to death, as in non-democratic regimes.
That is progress.
Further progress means that the outcomes of this will be fair, transparent and moderate. The international investor community is not immune from public scrutiny.
A thorny problem arises here. Centralizing and holding power with little accountability can lead to abusive regimes. But highly democratic regimes, with elected powers, the separation of powers and checks and balances, and a free press (owned by the rich, however), have become mired in gridlock (USA), stupidity (UK), cultural weakness (Italy) or disguised oligarchy (France).
So that makes me long for somebody somewhere to get something done!
Prince Mohamed has had the right idea: diversify the Kingdom's economic revenue base away from oil. It is going to be fascinating to see how this goes.
But everybody should join in working for a radical improvement of the situation in Yemen.
Wahhabism has been the cause of political chaos in the Sunni Muslim world. It is a cult. Taliban and ISIS follow it with passion. Salman will do better by extending his hand towards Iran, a Shia state. Wahhabi creed looks at Shias as apostates while other Sunni Muslim states accepts them as Muslims. Salman and Iran together could bring not only stability to the region, but pooled interests could bring economic prosperity because of rich resources that Iran possesses. But the fly in the ointment is Israel that would like to see the tension between the two because together Iran and Saudis could present a formidable economic challenge to Israel.
1
Is the freeing of the government from Wahhabism really because they now reject this ultraconservative interpretation of Islam, or because those clerics represent a power base that could threaten the crown?
The distinction is important since the very same Royal family unleashed Wahhabism on the world and has fueled the unrest and terrorism that is plaguing many Islamic countries. The Times seldom mentions our own cable traffic confirming that the Saudi's were funding ISIS.
While these acts are called "reforms" none are really moving the country closer to being a democracy. Instead they appear to be reorganizations of power rather than redistributions of power. In reality Saudi Arabia's slow death might actually be accelerating.
4
"...and we could see Saudi Arabia and the whole region spin out of control at the same time."
Right. Because the whole region is so under control now.
1
No less than 3 madmen in charge of Iran policy: Netanyahu, Salman and Trump. This isn't going to end well, either for Iran or the nations those madmen represent.
Could the NYT Editorial Board kindly highlight the failure of that Disraelian policy in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and Syria? May I respectfully request the Editorial Board to shout warnings from the rooftops, not simply to issue another meek and weak Mea Culpa as occurred after the invasion of Iraq?
Does anyone seriously believe the current U.S.-Saudi-Israeli path can avoid regional Armageddon? Does anyone believe, like Dick Cheney, that a new and even wider war will "pay for itself"?
What I don't understand, with U.S. policy in particular, is the conviction that the best way to secure Saudi oil resources is to have the highly vulnerable Ghiwar, Yibal, Shaybah and Wafra oil fields blown up.
People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones. Any attack on Iran will have frightening consequences for everyone. Iran has 1500 underground silkworm missiles along the Persian Gulf pointed at potential enemies, but Iran will not strike first. It is important for responsible media to highlight the dangers of Iranian retaliation to a first strike by Saudi Arabia or Israel.
1
Anyone recall what happened when our pal, the Shah of Iran, "reformed" and Westernized the country and pushed the conservative clerics to the side? All of the royals he is detaining, does he plan to keep them in the 5 star hotel indefinitely? If not, does he think they will peacefully comply with this coup? Presumably, he has his own "Savak" to handle the situation efficiently? (sarcasm)
1
The naked power play aimed at the consolidation of power through elite purge internally, and aggressive posturing toward Iran, Yemen, or Quattar externally that carries the real risk of regional conflagration and armed conflicts could be a sign of medieval court intrigues but never the reforms, and might further destabilise Saudi Arabia and the region around.
5
Aramco finally going public, after all these decades of profitable operations, says a lot. They’re selling out because the oil is running out. The easy money is over, so their society must change. But to what is the question.
8
Thank you for this excellent, concise description and analysis. As one who admittedly does not understand the region, it helped me immensely. That said, what with Israel/Palestine, Sunni/Shia, Saudi/Iran, US/Russia, not to mention Iraq and Syria, all aboil for decades atop the world's largest oilfield, it would appear that the region is already "spinning out of control". Add in the total dysfunction inflicted by the Trump administration, and it looks like a recipe for disaster. I'll believe progress is being made in the region when Arabs and Israelis, Sunnis and Shiites, Iranians and Saudis all commit to and engage in a reasonable dialog. As it is, it is all hate, all the time, and something has to give. No doubt it will.
19
Expanding Saudi Arabia’s economy seems like a very heavy lift. Beyond oil the region is resource poor, and there are no other competitive business sectors. Energetic and educated young people, especially women, will seek opportunity elsewhere.
9
This has all the signs of a coup attempt. It looks like either a pre-emptive strike or crushing a coup in its early stages.
It looks rushed and violent. It is extreme. It takes big risks. Two of those first 11 major figures are not arrested, they're dead.
This may not be "reform" at all. It may be the warning shocks before the Saudi political volcano blows in a St. Helens style eruption.
We need some insight from those who best know the Saudi inside politics, not just cheering.
62
Actually it is not a coup attempt, it is a fait acompli, and well past time for rethinking, especially for those 'Traitors' who literally lost their heads.
Prince Salman is a man of the people in a very true senseof the meaning. He is fast becoming their 'Mahdi', essentially the Islamic version of return of The Son Of God. His loosening the intense religious strictures, such as allowing women to drive, is, as you say, VERY IMPORTANT, and is truly putting Arabia into the modern world in ways more than just added technology without the production base to produce their own.
He sees this, and he also sees how his Nation has been used as a catspaw against Iran, and so while there is much that needs to be changed in Iran, by making the huge changes in Sunni Arabic Lands like this it can force the hands of the other Iranian powerbrokers, and like al-Hariri, either step down or be shortened somewhat.
We can also lok for a sharp departure between Salman Arabia and the US Banking system, as in Arabia, once it has it's weapons shipments delivered, may well decide to take other coin than just US Dollars for their oil. Stepping away from backing the Petrodollar would be a Major Coup against the Western Banking Complex which has used the previous Rulers dementias to steal immense fortunes from Arabia and it's people: He is in a place to be able to take it back. And the world may well never look the same again!
2
Purging Wahhabis is risky indeed. Al Qaeda, ISIS, Boka Haram are all Wahhabi institutions. The danger is the degree of control that Wahhabis have in the Saudi military, intelligence and the loyalty of princlings to Wahhabi religious police. It is and has been the practice of Wahhabi believers to blow themselves up in the name of “god”, so how does one reason with that.?
Political volcano? If Americans ever pay any attention to this column, or others, if Americans recognize that the REAL source of radical Islam has been Saudi Arabia. 9/11, attacks all over Europe, the shoe bomber, and most recently the attack in NYC were all Wahhabi. Trump has followed Obama providing support in weapons and surveillance to Saudi’s war on Houthis in Yemen. we are selling Saudi with billions worth of weapons. We have a history of entangled finances, military industrial oil/gas relations with the Saudis and that is very dangerous to our security, markets and to the dollar. And more dangerous with a crazy clown and his corrupt minions at the helm.
America has been deceived. For years the degenerate medieval tyranny has evaded the truth with the help of our banks, oil and defense industry, our military and our politicians with the quiet cooperation of all of our media. Now, this coup may finally reveal the extent of manipulation and deceit and the degree of complicity among our wealthiest most powerful leaders.
42
Well said. If you are in need of real serious nightmare plagued insomnia, imagine the real crazies getting ahold of all that hardware. Al Qaeda with state of the art air force. Fear not though. Won't happen.
Very insightful, Mr Friedman. I often think about President Obama putting together the deal to freeze Iran's nuclear weapons program and about the "support" of Speaker Boehner and Majority Leader McConnell and that "helpful" open letter from Tom Cotton and 46 other Senators addressed to the Leaders of Iran. I remain immensely grateful for President Obama's leadership and his staff's tireless and successful efforts.
We had a President who recognized where and when agreements were needed, so that grinding stand-offs could move forward through the fulfillment of a common-interest set of actions.
The world stops for no one, so this administration is either keeping up or falling behind.
110
Isn't it strange that only days before this coup de main and the deliberate effort to destabilize Lebanon Jared Kushner, the crown prince's best American friend, happens to duck into Riyadh for a visit.
315
Avanti,
In Saudi they cleared out a luxury hotel to use as a jail for at least some of the more prominent people arrested.
Over here we just the other day put the President's Campaign Manager Emeritus under "house arrest" -- but at least we took away his passports.
I wonder if the Justice Department is going to be renting a floor or two at some prominent luxury hotel for housing purposes soon? Might this run the risk of "emoluments" complications?
2
Thinking about that. Is it possible that Kushner was tasked with warning MBS of an impending coup/palace revolt! Because his actions make sense as a response to such a plot being discovered.
Of course, in trumps world, such news doesn’t get sent through normal channels but is carried “within the respective tribes” to cement the mutual obligations. What a world we are spiraling into.
1
Conspiratorial, but nevertheless interesting.
Trump, in recent remarks abroad (besides embarrassing himself and America, as usual, with his customary blend of stupidity and classlessness) leaves no doubt he is far more interested in peddling weapon systems as a means of juicing military industrial complex job numbers at home than he is in promoting peace abroad. Long after this menace is a bad memory, these chickens will still be coming home to roost.
214
Well... look at Saudi arms purchases. One of the biggest military contractor there is British Aerospace. About 5 seconds after any American arms deal is canceled, the French, Russians and British swoop in. Even the Chinese. The same goes for everywhere else.
We've been hearing about reform descending on this so-called country for 40 years, so let's save the applause and believe it when we see it. Does wonder boy imagine that the old guard fossils and their hangers-on, relatives, and those who do their dirty work will go quietly? Are the Iranians going to wait patiently while Saudi Arabia becomes a nimble, effective, and credible voice for the true believers of Islam while they diversify their economy enough to compete for hegemony in the Arab world? He will need much more than an efficient army of food tasters, bodyguards, and tough guys with sunglasses who leave no fingerprints.
19
“...and began exporting its puritanical Wahhabi Sunni Islam abroad, building mosques and schools from London to Indonesia.It has been a disaster for the Arab/Muslim world.”
Mr. Friedman is only partially correct. The nurturing and export of radical Islamic thought has been a disaster for the entire planet. And tapping the brakes at home cannot thwart the seeds that have been nefariously sown abroad by this so-called Kingdom.
84
A dubious "reformer" by any stretch of the imagination. More of a greedy and authoritarian figure looking to vanquish rivals and consolidate power. If successful he'll continue to wage war against the helpless, count on American military power to protect his regime, ally with Israeli militarists and proclaim himself a true friend of social and political progress. Another toxic ingredient in the Middle East cauldron.
55
That is a best case. Just as likely is instability at the core, as Saudi Arabia falls apart completely.
8
I'll not be at all surprised if M.B.S. is a closet atheist. It is time that governments of the region rid themselves of religious influence. On the other hand, M.B.S. may be a converted "born again" and hastening the second coming of Christ.
2
s. al,
In the village of Chelm, where all Jewish wisdom is road-tested before release, the village Rabbi bumped into the village atheist in the street. They were never big on small-talk, and the Rabbi just asked him "Nu? Suppose you were right?"
Nothing to see here - just a little housekeeping. There will be a quiet period until the Aramco IPO, and war is bad for business. Once our 401K money is safely in the Princes' off-shore accounts (Isle of Man, Jersey, etc.), then it is time to worry.
13
if you are worried add to the mix that the Saudis are running out of oil. Ghwar is running low, they're pumping 7 million bbl of seawater into it daily to maintain pressure. Saudi Arabia doesn't have the resources to be competitive deep into the century. Iran has more, maybe Iraq too. Saudi's best hope is to lead the region in competing for new age business.
5
Great column with lots of new insights. Importantly, among those who support M.B.S.'s bellicosity towards Iran--"like the U.A.E., Trump, Jared Kushner and Bibi Netanyahu"--let us not forget the entire Republican Party...most of whom fought tooth and nail in Congress to prevent the Iran deal. Let us remember John McCain as presidential candidate singing "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb bomb Iran!" to the tune of Barbara Ann. With Republicans in full power at the national level, I'm betting our government supports M.B.S. and Bibi all the way, militarily if it comes to that.
One other thing: it is rich to see this NY Times columnist, who supported W's Iraq War, accuse the Saudi prince of "overreach." I'm sure M.B.S. would laugh to hear Tom Friedman, or George W. Bush, or Hillary Clinton (all of whom supported the Iraq War) give him advice about "overreach." I do.
182
Bob,
I agree that the support of the press (pretty much all of it) for the Iraqi war was troublesome, i am pretty sure we will not see it in future wars again. But therefor and forever discount the few good and willing journalist's voice as stained is not smart. I forgave T.F. for being part of the "rally around the flag" club. We all make mistakes sometimes.
It all depends on who is controlling the boy-king's head and how far he plays into the global anti-Iran game sponsored from outside. Last time SA played the cold war in Afghanistan, through Wahabi Plus, it took a trillion dollars, millions of lives, and three decades to clean up.
13
"it took a trillion dollars, millions of lives, and three decades to clean up"
The efforts took that so far. The job isn't done. It is not cleaned up. In many ways it is worse.
12
Something is very wrong with America when our major allies are the most undemocratic, most oppressive and most intolerant countries in the region that wage the endless foreign conflicts, don't allow the return of the refugees for their religious background, don't allow freedom of religion within their borders, declare themselves as the exclusive national state although the binational society or ruled by the royalties depriving their citizens of the free elections. Between those two allies we could combine and list the most egregious sins of the modern world...
114
...also the most polluted 10 countries in the world are the Arab Oil States.....think about that....and keep thinking about that. They have nothing to sell now but an antiquated commodity. Please keep their polluting behaviors & backwards mentality where it is.
1
The founder of Saudi Arabia, a tribe to begin with, has produced a large body of offsprings, thousands of princes and princesses.
If the young would-be king wants to use this means--by eliminating majority of his brothers and sisters--in order to seize his power, then first he has to kill too many people, making himself a King of Bloody in history book.
Secondly, by this way, no one should be surprised he will be a target of assassination, because blood will end in blood.
In order to seize his power he resorts in the most barbarian way--eliminating his own large kinship. It is bad practice. It seems like he has no wiser friends around him to give him better advice.
No one denies he is in an ultra difficult spot, requiring a wise king with superb diplomatic skills and Machiavelli cunning to build consensus and short- and long-term allies within his large families and entrenched interests to hold his power and to push reform.
It is too convenient for him to say because of reform I must eliminate all the obstacles. In the case of Saudi Arabia, for better or for worse, probably only incremental reform can work.
In this saga, our president again proved he is so disqualified--he should use our power to mitigate the young king's worse impulse; instead, he embraces it because his (stupid) son in law has become a fast friend of the young king (he probably asked for low interest loan for his over-priced real estate purchase in NYC.)
71
MBS is committing genocide in Yemen. I think we know what kind of leader he's going to be.
117
And made matters worse for civilians stuck in Yemen, by closing borders - as reported by other media. Difficult to get aid into Yemen now & it was already facing a crisis.
And with buddies Trump, Kushners, etc being involved - doesn't look like things will improve for those suffering in Yemen.
3
There won't be truce let alone peace till Muslims treat women and each other like human beings should, anything else is commentary.
8
seems to me that'll be a long time coming. ( messianic times) a hudna can happen without waiting for that so no need to despair
What is write or what is wrong is very controversial in this world. Every wrong becomes right Under power or money.
Is is right punishing by beheading in 21st century?
Still Saudi is the close ally of USA.
4
There is no way to reform a dictatorship. Reformation comes after revolution.
4
The prior king, Abdullah ruled from 2005 to 2015 and was known as upright and relatively modest. He had emphysema but not dementia. Is the Times ageist now, and every old person has Alzheimer's dementia?
79
This is what we have wished for from the Saudi's for years. Yes there are dangers here. For the Saudi's and us. But. A move toward modernity anywhere in Arab Islam is to be welcomed and nurtured. Let's just hope that MBS can avoid the obvious pitfalls of wars abroad to serve other nations interests.
2
"Modernity," introduced by a lawless monarchical coup driven by a pretender to absolute power against family rivals, smacks more of medieval court intrigue than modernization. As much as Saudi Arabia needs drastic reform, this is a dubious way to go about it. Trump and Kushner obviously have their own reasons for trumpeting support for MSB's power-drive purge. But it has little to do with what is good for Saudi Arabia or for the United States.
55
Re Trump & Jared. They see no farther than J's need to get out from underwater on his troublesome Fifth avenue flagship property. If that far.
Tom Friedman never answered his own question, but talked around it.
My question is who will counterbalance the malign regional influence of Saudi Arabia?
7
That 550 million Salman gave to a Russian for a yacht sounds mighty fishy. His Russian connection also bonds him with Prince Jarod and the man who would be king Trump. Salmon is like a whirling dervish stirring up more trouble by allying with American despots like Trump and Israeli ones like Netanyahu. Looks like they're all in cahoots to throw the Iranian nuclear deal into chaos thus destabilizing European Union's agreement. Trump wants to pull out but he stays thick as thieves with Putin and other thugs. This a Prince Salman should watch the company he keeps. The whole lot of them are thieves in the casbah.
31
... pls ... don't sully the sufi dervish... the dervish is a poet in shiraz
Coup d'état! You can count on it.
Saudi Arabians were always backwards. They remain so and will always be so. Camels were their best craft. Oil made them somebody yet it won't last.
Backwardness will come back with a vengeance.
6
Nick,
Currently Americans calling Arabs "backward" is an item that sells at a discount.
1
“ There is a tide in the affairs of men, which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune”. Perhaps MBS is the one who will change Saudi Arabia’s face forever. Except for Wahabbi extremism and oil money, Saudi Arabia has achieved nothing. MBS is at least trying demolish the old order and introduce real reforms. We cannot expect him to follow our rules of due process. The inmates at the Ritz-Carlton will be the first ones to laugh at the American concepts of justice. If MBS gets sucked into a war with Iran, all bets are off. But it is very possible that he will lead a new generation of Saudis towards a prosperous future with a much lighter Islamic tread.
2
Hopefully he can further the legacy of Ataturk since the current leader of Turkey has no interest in doing so.
4
Air,
Ataturk, like Saddam Hussein whom we so unwisely had hanged, is one of a small and interesting class, Moslems who could say, with Churchill "I have taken more out of drink than drink has taken out of me."
My good friends at Misubishi Shoji have made substantial investments over the past forty years in developing analogues of Scotch whiskey. It is priced up there with my favorite Mcallan or the newly prototyped Johnny Walker Platinum, and moves smartly in Saudi.
OK, so women can drive in Riyadh now, that’s swell. Call me when they can wear trousers in public, then maybe we’ll be getting somewhere. Until then this drive for a medieval form of government with better accounting and tech support fails to really impress.
13
All this makes me wonder how good the Saudi security apparatus is, because knives will be coming at the Crown Prince from all directions.
5
This despotic family has been kept in power by massive American military force in order to siphon off the natural resource wealth of the region rather than allow it to be spent on human development there. This ruthless and Machiavellian policy is what led to massive ruthless retaliation on 9/11 and not "American freedom".
15
Saudi Arabia: The Best First Millennium Civilization That Oil Money Can Buy. And, the scimitar rattlers are READY. Beware, Iran. Donald NEEDS a War, and North Korea just might actually have a little radioactive surprise.
This can NOT end well, we will get sucked into a war defending Saudi Arabia. You know, the home of almost all of the 9/11 hijackers, mass murderers, Monsters. Thanks, GOP. You REALLY know how to pick'em.
53
This seems like a coup d'etat to me. First, the current King of Saudi Arabia instills his son instead of his brother as next in line for the throne, and then the his son, the Crown Prince, arrests anyone he believes will resist his rule. Now he is attempting to refocus the Saudi economy to legitimize his rule. It sounds like a textbook coup d'etat.
6
Thomas Friedman connecting the dots again - Excellent! But, can MBS win the soul of people supporting Wahabism and all those new mosques dotted densely around the region? I hope so for peace among Muslims as well as between Islam and the other theisms. What say you Thomas?
Old age does not = Alzheimer's. I have witnessed first hand the devastation of Alzheimer's. It is not funny. That is a cheap shot.
101
You touched on Yemen, but neglected to mention that Mohammed bin Salman is blatantly guilty of crimes against humanity in that country, bombing not only civilians but schools and hospitals; anybody associated with anything Shia is fair game. He belongs in the dock in the Hague, not in a palace or on a yacht.
You comment on his confrontation of the Wahhabi part of the theocratic / kleptocratic duopoly running this country, but neglect to mention his murderous support of most of the most extreme Sunni positions. He opposes them only when they get in the way of his autocratic aspirations. This young thug, this micro-Trump, brutal even by the low standards of the house of Saud, may well bring down that house. We can only hope.
Dan Kravitz
20
" ...arrested the owners of the three main quasi-independent private television networks..."
This is enough to know. This is not someone who will ever value our american democracy or anything approaching it. 32 years old is not old enough to run for president of the US, but in an absolute monarchy it's just fine. These princelings educated in the Ivy League would never have gotten in with out all that money and power in their families. They return to Saudi Arabia and bring what with them? Xi the president of China went to Harvard. What do they learn in these places? Certainly not a philosophy based on democracy or ethics. The electric car can't get here fast enough. We would never have cultivated important diplomatic relations with people like this if not for the oil, and with out the money from it they would never have been able to buy our weapons of mass destruction we eagerly sell them to wage war on their neighbors in Yemen, Qatar, Bahrain. They are rich barbarians with whom we share nothing in common but gross materialism.
156
And lest we forget, one of the main unspoken/spoken justifications for going after Qatar was to shush up Al Jazeera...
This is a well-written and detailed introduction to an important subject about which most of us (including myself) are ignorant. I will test it against what actually unfolds. i hope that it will turn out to be less accurate than I think it will be.
3
"and the whole region spin out of control"
Guess what Mr. Friedman, the region is out of control already; it is always out of control: Syria, Iraq, Yemen and those who fuel it, Iran and its terrorist lackey, state within a state, Hezbollah, and Qatar.
Out of control is just a matter of perspective and I am sure that others will have different perspectives of "out of control".
M.B.S. is playing for the entire deck; it is a gamble. If he wins, he wins big and if he looses, he just hastens what would have happened to Saudi Arabia in any case, i.e. slow disintegration (until a successful revolt).
"but he needs to broaden his base".
I think he already has begun that process; but this too is a matter of perspective and opinion.
7
A Saudi Arabia spinning out of control might not be such a bad idea so long as Iran, with its vastly more educated and secular population becomes the dominant force in the region. Older societies with a visible culture and history are far more preferable to younger ones that got rich simply because they found a lot of black goo under a rock.
38
In my experience traveling in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia doesn't seem to enjoy political credibility within the wider Arab world. Wether they deserve their status as puppets of the west is debatable. They have comfortably hidden behind America as their protectorate insulated by their tremendous sovereign wealth. In a way, it feels like they have the analysts in their pockets.
We crave penetrating analysis which sheds a brighter light on the players and their motivations. Pardon my cynicism, but #metoo is starting to question authority.
2
When I worked in Saudi in the 80s, there were 3000 princes and oil was $90 a barrel. Now there are 15,000 princes, oil is $50/bbl, and yachts are not getting any cheaper. For the fathers of millennial Saudis, government jobs were plentiful and undemanding. MBS may have already taken his share of the treasury, but he can do basic arithmetic.
The threat will of course come from those more senior princes who have been bypassed. Sons of Fahd and Khalid are still young and competent and surely cannot all be jailed and/or bought off. Civil war on the Arabian peninsula will not be pretty.
202
No. MBS will face the full force of Wahhabi fanaticism. The princes will rally Wahhabi psychos and storm the palace. World markets will shudder.
The real source of terror in the world will be uncloaked as a Wahhabi SALAFIS cabal. America’s alliance with the very worst terrorist state and the involvement and silence throughout the west will exact a terrible tole.
Oil was never $90 a barrel in the '80's. Except for the early spike to the mid to high $30's in 1982-1983, and the subsequent collapse in early 1984, oil generally hovered around $20/bbl for the decade. The population changes are key. The wealth pie has to now be shared amongst 33 million Saudis vs. 10 million in 1980.
Any monarchy that has 15,000 princes is unclear on the concept...
I am definitely not a fan of Iran, but I seriously don't know where this tired Iran overreach thesis comes from. Iran has two main allies in the Arab World, Assad in Syria and the Shiites in Lebanon. One of them was at the brink of collapse so it came to the rescue. If anything, for the past several years, it's been fighting to keep its hold on its old allies. How did that turn into an expansion and overreach is totally beyond my understanding.
35
Iran is also allied with Iraq, which is led by a Shia majority government, and where Shiites make up over 60% of the population, Kurds make up 22% and Sunnis only about 17%.
Saudi Arabia is a complex society and polity. It has been governed by a corrupt and authoritarian kingdom for many years. To adapt to changing ideas and technologies, it needs to undertake political and structural reform. But that should be undertaken slowly: faster than 10 but not 50 miles per hour. Otherwise, the likelihood of a counter-coup or violent overthrow of the regime will increase.
2
M.B.S., the newest imperial and absolute ruler of Saudi Arabia, seems impulsive alright, but not knowing the internal conflicts at hand, it may be difficult for us outsiders to judge accurately what's next. Although an eventual constitutional monarchy may be in the cards, do not hold your breath as yet, as this new guy seems ruthless enough to muzzle any criticism, however constructive; rationality, secularism, where justice and freedom may thrive, and peace in society (it's ultimate goal) a reality, seem distant hopes at best.
2
A sweeping power grab by a king is not the path to a constitutional monarchy. It is the path away from one.
2
Really? Huh? He's also arresting fanatical Wahabi clerics who spew hate and spread a doctrine around the globe the culmination of which was 9/11 and al Qaeda/Islamic State. For years the Saudis have either financed this or looked the other way to avoid a power struggle with these Wahabi theocrats.
Now for the first time you have a person with power in Saudi Arabia who looks like he wants to reform the country and put these religious fanatics in their place. And what do leftist NY Times readers like you do? They complain about it and denounce it. Is this a joke?
1
Arresting all possible challengers to Bin Salman's claim to the Saudi throne on questionable, unspecified charges, is not "reform", or modernization. It is a medieval power grab. Confiscation of assets, which would inure to the coffers of a state ruled by a monarchy, would multiply the once and future king's bounty. Some convicted in Saudi have been know to lose more than their gold. Those making good use of their heads remaining on their shoulders will probably renounce much of their wealth and all of their claims to political power. Is an all powerful monarch, who rose to power upon abuse of the rule of law, resting upon a mountain of gold represent a step toward modernity? Seems to harken back to he days of Genghis Kahn or Caesar. Didn't end well for Julius .
The means of bin Salman's rise to power should be denounced by our country (Trump has encouraged and admired the Prince's style), the UN and all democratic governments. There is no reason to believe that tyrannical means to power will bring results benefiting the rule of law, and the well being of the Saudi people.
8
These events come at a very auspicious time in the history of the M.E. Here we have a strong ally in S.A. that serves as a counterweight to a rising and increasingly dangerous Iran, that is finally loosening up the social norms of its restrictive and repressive society and, as rumor has it, has been making overtures to Israel and continues to support the US in our many interests in the region. One only hopes that these recent developments under M.B.S. are indeed going to lead to good ends but the fact that he has placed so many under house arrest smacks of a power grab. We do need to keep up the pressure while continuing to encourage freedoms and rule of law, as much as that is possible there since we cannot allow S.A. to destabilize in an already very dangerous region.
Scores of hundreds of thousands study abroad returning with big but unmet ideas about freedom and opportunity. Oil $ running out in a non-diversified economy stuck in 2nd gear. Women just allowed to drive. 6 of the 7 power centers + the media recklessly shut out. Autocrat buys a half billion $ yacht on a whim. What could go wrong?
The world is changing fast becoming very autocratic and a revolution of some sort is afoot. MidEast Spring has chilled; China consolidates its power down to one, as did Putin's Russia. EU shaken by poor growth and questionable immigration with increasing nationalism. America turns inward at a most dangerous time with an untested & reckless leader egging on nationalism, NK and autocracy.
What could go wrong?
11
The last paragraph of Mr. Friedman's brilliant analysis, is the most troubling. I worry about the global realpolitik. M.B.S. may well be able to control his domestic situation. But I can see him overreaching and confronting Iran militarily, goaded by the likes of Trump and Netanyahu. These two characters especially are itching for a fight with Iran and very possibly will use M.B.S. and the Saudis as a proxy and a pretext for confronting Iran. That will not be in either America's or Israel's interest and we should all be very vigilant to ensure this never happens.
8
Tom, perhaps you are reading too much into this ongoing Saudi kerfuffle.
Maybe it is just a pure power grab, although one worthy of a Mario Puzo plot.
All the moderating and modernizing niceties getting attributed to the young prince in a hurry are perhaps just that - niceties that the West likes to hear, and then somehow feel better, superior, prescient, and a bit more polished and civilized. And quite helpful to our young prince.
Maybe we are simply getting played, jointly, by Salman's progeny and Putin's helpers. They have the most to gain from an endlessly churning world, resulting in higher oil prices for these two oil exporters.
1
Thanks for the great article. Here's hoping it turns out well. It's a far sight better than North Korea.
1
A coup. Not only will it affect the other branches of the royal family, but also the clergy, which may not be such a bad thing. I don't see anything but an absolute monarchy coming from this. The prince is going to really enjoy his new power and he won't want to share. He will make a few advancements, but I am not holding my breath.
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I am afraid, and don't interpret this coup as being as benign as you do. he started with a war in Yemen--the poorest country in the world--blaming the Shi'a Houthis and Iran. Arresting people, particularly the opposition press and business and dynastic competitors is NOT the way to bring about reform. Neither is stirring up hostility to the Shi'a and Iran, or trying to shut down the free press Al Jazeera, which is the whole purpose of isolating the tolerant Qatari's.
Beheading Shi'a clerics and dissenters is not a good sign either. Women driving is not the most important issue in Saudi Arabia; it is mostly symbolic.
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MBS is merely asserting Saudi Arabia's strategic interests vis a vis Iran. Trump; Kushner; and Bibi are mere applause from the sidelines - this is a battle for regional hegemony between the Sunni Arabs and the Shia Persians, and it's more to do with the Arab vs Persian rivalry than an internal Islamic feud.
And yes, this could easily lead to war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, probably starting with overt hostilities with Hezbollah as with the Houthis. How sanguine we in the West should be is an interesting question: I'd venture to say that it is in our interests that Iran is put back in its box. The nuclear issue is also a sideshow.
I agree with Tom's analysis on Saudi Arabia but I'm not sure if a Prince who splurges 550ml on a whim is the right one to shepherd these changes. The thing I can't fathom is why Americans in general are so negatively obsessed about Iran . Agreed they are not the best behaved actor out there but there are far worse ones in the middle east who have caused a lot more pain to the U.S than Iran.
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Adrian, well said. I too fail to see the great "evil" often ascribed to Iran, especially when looked at through the context of the Middle East. As far as the internecine conflict goes, I see it's roots lie in the centuries old Sunni/Shia strife now using modern weaponry instead of spears, swords and bow & arrow. If the area didn't sit on an ocean of oil the rest of the world would be content to view it much like strife between the North African countries, sad for participants and the innocent victims, send them a CARE package and wash ones hands. Given the pending demise of big oil, it might yet come to that. Assuming that the world as we know it is still around. Right now that seems iffy.
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A brilliant and fast food style summary of the situation evolving in the Middle East. While everyone is talking about pretty much the same thing, none of the journalists are discussing the potential motive as capital controls and repatriation of Saudi's wealth from abroad. There are some reports that the arrested businessmen were slowly taking money away from Saudi Arabia as they did not believe in the utopian vision of the young stallion crown prince.
The Saudi crown prince was preparing for a riyal-dollar unpeg as he comes under pressure to deal with Russia and China in their local currencies. At the same time, he is aware that unpegging the dollar with get the American establishment out to get him, so he needs money, lots of it to maintain the peg. It is a simple money grab raid and the asset seizure should warn investors that in the middle east, your assets, bank accounts and your physical freedom can be seized in seconds with no legal recourse and no Habeas corpus. The young population is cheering him on, not knowing that they are next. Once he has taken care of the big wigs and centralized power and corruption, he will turn into a full blown dictator of historical proportions.
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I am more afraid of Trump's reaction to what MBS is doing. Just like I am more afraid of Trump's tweets and statements towards North Korea than I am actually afraid of North Korea itself.
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Not often that I agree with (part of) Thomas Friedman. M.B.S. may be exactly what Saudi Arabia and the Middle East need, but there is a risk that he bit more than he can chew.
For sure it is absolutely necessary to counter Iran's expansionism, which has caused extensive damage to Iraq, Lebanon and Iran, and which poses an enormous risk to Israel, Jordan and the Gulf countries. But don't underestimate the Iranians. They are bad, but smart.
MBS now has enemies in the Saudi clergy, the other Princes, Qatar and Iran. If he loses, we may see a Middle East worse than ever.
I agree Thomas Friedman... Be afraid but let us do all we can to help MBS. It is in our interest.
I hope he will avoid war with neighboring countries and truly promote new ideas growth and peace .
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We should be more troubled about the crown prince's secret meetings with Jared Kushner. Something's cooking, and it's probably questionable if not outright illegal.
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When the world shakes, little Jared Kushner will not be doing the shaking.
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Mr. Friedman commits two distortions, one, that modernity is about liberalism in economics and moderation in religion, and two, that being open to modernity and progress excuses not only a monarchy, but a monarchy without laws that now swings to autocracy and tyranny.
M. B. S. might want indeed to cultivate a more moderate Islam, open opportunity to foreign capital and women, and to "disrupt" Saudi's economics. But all those lofty goals are *the result* of openness and democracy, that in essence, are based in equality, fraternity, and a rule of law constraining the caprices and injustices of power.
Throwing competing families into prison just because they *might* oppose this putsch, as well as other luminaries that were themselves reformers, interrogating them in secret without witnesses or pretense of a judiciary, launching a war against Yemen, now a quagmire, with thousands of innocents dead and malnourished are all absolutely inexcusable --modernity values laws and rights, first, results later. A tyranny is a tyranny.
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"Throwing competing families into prison just because they *might* oppose this putsch"
Well put, and it shows why I don't believe that is what happened. They DID oppose it, and they lost a fight.
It hard to predict how MBS will fare because of his propensity to take risk -- often without adequately thinking through all the ramifications of his actions (Yemen and Qatar). For him to take Saudi Arabia into the 21 Century, however, requires bold action. What's unclear is just how many Saudi's have 'drunk the kool-aid' and are serious adherents to Wahhabism. Right now the conservatives are on their heels...stunned by the speed the king and crown prince are operating -- but at some point they'll regroup and that's when things will get interesting. MBS does not seem like the vacillating type however. His reaction to any conservative challenge will most likely be as decisive as many of his other decisions -- hopefully he begins to do a better job of thinking through ramifications.
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Thinking it through would be very new for this guy. His decisiveness is that of the reckless gambler.
Change is overdue. Rapid change is most welcome. The vast majority who work are in Keynsian job of processing mindless paper forms and applications which can easily be eliminated. The real work is done by the foreigners, (the 'guest workers' that vastly outnumber the nationals). The nation will continue to be controlled by the few rulers. Yes ,the $500M yachts will continue to be owned by the few with this inherited or seized wealth. Only real democracy has the courage to challenge that. What McKinsey did for Dubai, is probably the best model for MSB to emulate in the shorter term. The saber rattling on the outside is fine as a sideshow, but the biggest opportunity is to change the culture . The book that also guides millions in Indonesia , Malaysia, India and many more nations can coexist in a progressive and liberal place for people to live and work. Benevolent dictatorships can work , for the rapid progress of a nation. They can ,and should be used to usher a real foundation for progress until it is ready for a more mature form of governance.
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My take-away from this evolving drama is that the monarchy is being consolidated and concentrated into the singular person of the crown prince who is eliminating any possible opposition from within the family ranks. These tactics are not significantly different from those employed by Kim of North Korea, or England's King Richard III of long ago (not to mention Elizabeth I, etc).
None of this speaks to the development of a real democracy and human rights within Saudi Arabia. Political oppression and robust economic development can coexist, contrary to the assertions of Ayn Rand, and modern China is the proof.
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Interesting. I’ve been saying for a while what happens when technology is strong enough that we just don’t need all the people who want to work? Capitalism has thrived on a continuous need for workers. Everyone wants to to work and hard workers are rewarded. It’s been a great and rewarding balance and it has a good moral foundation. BIG changes on the horizon for all of us – rich and poor alike.
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Turns out applying Moore's Law to society on a global scale, in secular and religious, developed and developing countries alike, simultaneously, was probably not a good idea.
Technology is, in fact, the root cause of the implosion of political parties and destabilization of societies around the world, many of which had already been profoundly weakened by a quarter of a century of the colossal failure that was neoliberal globalization, which decimated the middle classes of the developed world.
As a result of this legacy of failed globalization and a series of exponential general-purpose technologies of unprecedented power heading straight at us, we find ourselves at the very beginning of an extraordinarily perilous period in history. And the addition of Saudi Arabia to the rapidly growing list of unstable societies just increased the risk of a cataclysm by an order of magnitude.
And technology is turning the "demographic dividend" that economists and Management Consultants have been lecturing us about for decades into a "demographic curse", and Saudi Arabia is right in the crosshairs.
It could run the $500B Neom project with about twelve people if it tried hard enough. And confronting 25% youth unemployment, just as the Age of Automation is about to go exponential, is not exactly auspicious.
Love to hear Friedman's advice on how MBS is going to create those millions of jobs that he so desperately needs.
If you're not afraid, you're just not paying attention.
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The profound corruption of money in politics is the root cause of implosion of political parties and destabilization of society.
Technology is not to blame for that. There are ways to be technological without being so disastrously corrupt. It is a choice now, just as it was in the Robber Baron Era.
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I would also love to hear how Donald Trump or whomever is going to be the next President is going to create those millions of real jobs, not gigs, that are so desperately needed right here in the USA.
I get more than fed up with hearing people like Friedman and others say, "Get an education." Great idea. Now we can have a very educated and indebted workforce slaving away at $10 hour gigs.
It is time to seriously examine a life wage. Now.
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This is all very interesting and I hope The Times will continue to cover the intricacies of what this M.B.S dictator/king does. I can't help but think that everything he has recently done has been coordinated to some extent with Trump and Netanyahu. The motivation is to demolish Iran's influence in the area. Not such a good idea.
Iran is not a helpless stepchild. They have capabilities, both technical and military. They have a backer in Putin. China probably has a finger or two in the pie if there is a buck in it for them.
The new dictator/king is playing with fire. The region could very easily blow. The stepping down of the leader in Lebanon and embargo against Qatar are ominous signs made even more so by the coincidence of their timing. Now throw in the purge and we have the making of some serious conflict.
Trum likes conflicts. He likes to blow stuff up, like our government. There may have been some kind of backdoor deal made between Trump, Netanyahu and the new dictator/king. We have no diplomatic corp to intervene. Trump just said regarding international diplomacy that he is the only one that matters. Take him at his word and closely watch what happens now. Mr. Friedman is justified in being worried. I am too.
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Worse than any pretense at destabilizing Iran, is the fact that the entire world knows that our great friends and allies are the source of Wahhabism, ISIS, Al Qaeda, Boka Haram and the REAL source of global terrorism.
Oil, Banking, and Defense industries in the West have colluded with Saudis to the extent of demonizing Iran while extolling a depraved medieval cabal. The elite throughout the west have jeopardized our citizens, democracy, sovereignty, and the world economy by so entangling our interests on the basis of sustaining our addiction to oil and their unquenchable greed.
It is time for our political leaders to denounce this charade. It is time to hold the conspirators accountable. It is time for America to end our affiliation with the oil, banking, defense profiteers and withdraw our troops, funds, and alliances in the Middle East.
Trump, Beb and MbS are frothing at the mouth ready to remake the Suez crisis at Bandar Abbas - with the same predictably dismal results and lots of dead people too.
"Iran is not a helpless stepchild. They have capabilities, both technical and military. They have a backer in Putin. China probably has a finger or two in the pie if there is a buck in it for them."
Sounds all the more reason to clip Iran's wings. No? Or do you prefer Putin, China and Iran to dominate the Mideast? One minute progressives are bent out of shape denouncing Putin's schemes. Now the next you sympathize with the mullahs who chant Death to America and Death to Israel on a weekly basis along with their allies. Won't progressives please make up their minds?
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Management consultants learned long ago not to propose grand schemes of transformation to their clients that required years to complete. When desired transformations are fundamental and broad, they’re broken up into manageable phases that allow re-thinking, re-prioritization of objectives, even retrenchment at manageable intervals. They do that because leadership changes and events intrude that alter priorities, transformational will and even the resources available to get things done. Stretch out the attainment of “success” over too long a duration, you can pretty well guarantee that you won’t “succeed”.
So I understand a Saudi prince in a hurry. As we’ve seen, Saudi princes never really know how long their heads will be attached to their necks, particularly if their princely status depends on descent from a guy passed over as king. If you want to make a dent in that society, the best bet is to hit hard and fast, while you’re still driving a big car.
Tom wonders where MBS’s drive for reform stops, whether at a boundary that westerners regard as appropriate or far beyond it in the badlands of autocracy. I can only suggest that Saudi Arabia is not a democracy and the guy isn’t called “Crown Prince” because he believes in representative consensus. In MBS’s consolidation of family power Tom may see the headwinds.
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And who really cares (other than Saudis)? If women incrementally are brought to a more equal footing with men, if the kingdom becomes more sustainable by becoming more open to innovation and diversity, not least economic diversity, and as long as MBS keeps his head attached to his neck … someday he could be acclaimed a national hero, and not JUST because he proclaims himself to be one.
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By the time oil is in steep decline somewhere in the 2020s, Saudi Arabia will have changed from a kingdom to a corporation and M.S.B wants to be CEO.
Whatever it means for Saudi Arabia and the Middle East, a move away from global funding of Wahhabist extremism is an unalloyed positive.
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I agree, but I am concerned that that is merely window dressing for us, public relations ploy with little cost.
Oil prices:
For Trump and the rest of the oligarchs a war in the middle east is music to their years from the Bakken basin to the Urals. (sorry for the spelling). And we the suckers who pay with our lives, our military and our dollars to try and keep the Persian Gulf open when the shooting begins.
One last thought: Trump will have no problem ending subsidies for health insurers but I am sure will figure out a way to subsidize the shipping insurance industry when rates explode as the risk to cargo increases in a shooting war under the guise of helping the consumer pay over $4, $5 or $10 a gallon.
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