I live near Tokyo, at a city close to the US Yokota base. You might imagine many journalists were warning, like Kristov, on the obvious danger of Abe's behavior as an acolyte of Trump. Not. (If you do not know Abe, he is the guy whose hands Trump holds for 19 seconds.) If journalists are untrustworthy you might imagine people so close to the air base were upset. Not really. Abe is ever elated with his own belligerent statements in the snap election and unfortunately majority of audience too. Is this how war starts? I wonder.
1
When are people going to realize that the President is not mentally competent for the office? His baiting and insulting is childish, immature and surely not representative of the office he holds. He is an embarrassment to the country, knows nothing about the office he holds or the Constitution and has the attitude that the country is his fief, he the lord and the rules do not apply to him. The movie Seven Days in May portrayed a failed military coup. My only hope is that the generals comprising the President's influence circle will step in before more damage is done, missiles are launched and the civilized world once again proves that it is anything but.
6
Dear Nick - thank you. I'm afraid you are too right about Trump, it is all backfiring; it is all deeply unnerving and yet, and yet, too many Americans are okay with it or have become desensitized or who somehow think the US mainland will not be affected by a nuclear war. The arrogance, the contempt for others, the ignorance of history and of the enormously destructive power of nuclear weapons, these are all hallmarks of Trump and Trumpists. We are in deep, deep, deep trouble and the chickens in Congress seemed determined to do nothing about it.
10
What Nicholas Kristof fails to mention is that, if left unchecked, North Korea can, sooner than we expect, kill ten million in less than an hour, with nuclear attacks on Seoul, Tokyo, and Los Angeles. Is there some reason, Nicholas, that you are unwilling or unable to do ALL the math? You correctly point out that Kim Jong Un needs to show his people he will not shrink from confronting the perceived menace to his country from the U.S. and its allies — which is exactly why he will use his nuclear weapons on us at the earliest opportunity.
3
the chinese may not have have much influence left with the north, but the current situation is largely of their doing. a realpolitik based strategy of playing the north off against the south and the US has resulted in the North's possession of nuclear weapons. the chinese have provided the north with foreign trade and the technical and material assets needed to build its bombs and missiles. it may turn out that they will reap the disastrous rewards of any conflict. a large cloud of radioactive fallout may be their payback for helping the north. even if there is no war an accident could easily result in the contamination of a large area along the border with the north. the chinese cant reverse what they have engineered but they can help contain it. they could enforce a complete embargo on the north to force it to halt any further development. the US could live with that and in exchange for the north freezing its nuclear program in place a peace treaty could be negotiated.
1
Quote from The Art Of War- "Appear weak when you are strong and strong when you are weak" "The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting him" Trump needs to read this book!
2
There is another thing that has not been tried yet: Get all US military unilaterally, completely and immediately out of SK. The nuclear umbrella is not affected since it is based on rockets from far away.
1
As weapons have become more powerful, the death tolls will continue to escalate. The next war will kill many times what World War 2 killed. It is not inconceivable that the death toll could be more than one billion.
Although it might have been fun for countries to flex their primate egos in the past, the time has come to hand over the instruments of death to the UN Security Council, who is charged with maintaining world peace. The U.S. does not have the authority or mandate to decide who gets to keep which weapons.
The alternative is billions of deaths, so do not dismiss my comment lightly.
2
Here's the deal, I agree 100% that Trump is an incompetent President who has no idea what he is doing, and he very well may start a war that would be devastating for millions.
However, in substance, Trump is actually correct that North Korea has no interest in getting rid of its nuclear arsenal, no matter what goodies we offer. In fact, Kim has every incentive to expand his arsenal and make his nation more and more dangerous.
I think this is something missed in the rush to condemn our dim but occasionally right President. The North Koreans are the bad guys, not Trump (though I admit that is an easy mistake to make).
The US needs to develop a military capability to absolutely destroy their armed forces (both its nuclear and conventional components) in a very short amount of time, without using nuclear weapons that could irradiate our allies in Japan and South Korea (and China). We don't currently have this capability. Until we do there is no reason that Kim should do anything except provoke conflict and build more nuclear weapons.
In order to negotiate, we need to be able to give Kim consequences. Right now we have no consequences for him - which is why Trump is lashing out like a schoolboy. Our hands are tied.
2
I feel much safer now that I know Donald Trump plans to increase tenfold the number of nuclear weapons in our stockpile. I world feel even more safe if he would increase the number of hydrogen bombs by 34.7 times. Let’s not skimp on national security.
I appreciate your upbeat report, Mr. Kristof, but I think it is a whole lot worse because trump's wishful thinking includes winning a nuclear war - making him a winner yet again - regardless of the millions of deaths.
"Fire and fury" - So much for not telegraphing his strategy and intentions to our enemies.
3
Although I fear that war could erupt through a miscalculation or mistake by either side, it would end in the destruction of the North Korean regime. In a conventional war, they could cause civilian causalities for a few days by shelling Seoul ad other civilian targets but the regime could not withstand protracted combat with the United States, South Korea and their allies. Their nuclear capability still lacks a means of delivery and if they resorted to nuclear weapons, North Korea would become first nation to experience American nuclear arms, which is a losing proposition. Having said this, North Korea has come to the same realization and knows that going to war is a losing proposition. The end game here is diplomacy which may bring about regime change in Pyongyang. I am not convinced that China could not terminate Kim Jon um if we came to an agreement that guaranteed North Korean territorial integrity in exchange for regime change and a denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. Although I greatly respect Mr. Kristoff, his concerns echo the dark prophesies before the first Gulf War that going to war against Saddam over Kuwait was irrational.
"North Korea would become first nation to experience American nuclear arms..."
The US bombed Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan at the end of WW II. We've already used nuclear bombs against Asians.
2
Kim Jong-un is deadly scary. So is Donald Trump. At this point North Korea is suicidal. And if the world ( i.e chiefly the US ) keeps putting on the squeeze on North Korea with more and more sanctions, I am afraid North Korea will explode but not before destroying it's neighbors, our allies in mushroom clouds. Millions are going to perish and those that survive will perish a little later. Our great American Fleet in the neighborhood will be tinder, the environmental disaster unfathomable.
1
“Sic semper tyrannis!
Is that VP Pence that we see warming up in the ballpen?
1
The tragedy that is Donald Trump is on full display, each morning when he Tweets, when he speaks to the press and when word of his evolving psychosis leaks out of the White House.
3
Trump's "strategy" on North Korea is tweeting slurs and speaking like a street gang leader. That is too stupid to be scary. Trump's ignorant immature intemperate insecurity exposes his innate weak cowardly nature and nurture.
Mr. Kim of North Korea, at 35 years old, has more nation state governing experience than 71 year old Trump and his Cabinet and White House staff combined. He is not scared. Trump has never been in a real street nor playground fight. Nor has Trump ever been bravely honorable and patriotic to volunteer to serve in the military uniform of any American armed force.
South Korea and Japan are scared. China and Russia are not scared.
2
Nicholas ! Look where a quarter of a century of wishful thinking took us with NK.
Try to understand that the threat to the free world is real and the time has arrived to stop these insane NK gangsters NOW !
1
So how do you propose to do it? And while your thinking about how, remember the North Korea can shell Seoul with convention artillery without even crossing the DMZ.
2
At some point wishful thinking must stop and effective solution implemented. The time to act has arrived !
As to what action, the US, its allies and the free world takes in this matter depends entirely on how much we value our way of life !
Why not let history help us out here. We've already proved to the Koreans, both North and South, how merciless we can be. It was the conflagration of the North, what, 60 some years ago. If you really want to know what can happen and did happen and has happened, not once but over and over, read up on the civilian casualties of our "enemies" in the Korean War, the Vietnam War, and the Iraq War, and if that's not enough to thoroughly sicken your soul move on to the CIA wars against the people of Central and South America, and everywhere else there is we might have a "friend" or "interest" to "protect".
South Korea refused to sign even the armistice that hailed the end of the Korean War. Tje people and leaders of the North have a very obvious reason to feel threatened. Why not offer a TREATY and end this madness in a civilized way? The everyday Korean people of both sides have wanted peace for over 60 years. WHY NOT A TREATY?
If you read the history it begs you to consider, why not.
4
For Trump's base of supporters, life stinks, and they sense things won't improve despite having their vulgarian, but incompetent hero in office. So a nuclear war is just the kind of exciting distraction they're cheering for. Trump always follows his base, and this is not the occasion he will choose to disappoint them.
3
NICK'S Description of the horror we all feel that Trump's itchy itsy bitsy finger in on the NOO KYUH LER button is all well and fitting. But it's essential to avoid the assumption that Trump is capable of rational thought. Trump exhibits severe deficiencies in the language, memory and executive functions of the brain. He elopes in public places--meaning he walks away, unaware of where he is, where he needs to be or what his role is. Such behavior is typically found in dementia wards in nursing homes. Trump must have forgotten his statement about being benevolent concerning the Dream Act to permit children brought here illegally to have a path to citizenship. Trump thinks that illegals crossing the border is the worst threat from Mexico. Actually the worst threat is that the Chinese sell raw materials to manufacture opioids and the Mexicans whip up the pills sold in the US. Also, the experts agree that electronic monitoring of the border is far more effective and dramatically less costly than building the idiotic fence. Trump also cannot distinguish the difference between starting a food fight at a birthday party and starting a NOO KYUH LER war, because he lives his life reenacting food fights from his salad days. MMMM Make that birthday cake days.
2
We Americans seem to be assuming that Kim Jong Un is as crazy as donald trump. I don't think he is. To me he appears to be completely rational although the English translations of what he says appear pretty weird. Kim is consolidating his power. In order to do that, he has to impress the people around him and his countrymen of his strength. What better way to do so than to stand up to the crazy American leader. trump has seriously overestimated his ability to control this situation. What trump doesn't understand is that a war with the DPRK will do nothing but make the US a pariah among nations. Living on the West Coast, I'm really nervous. Kim may not be able to hit Washington, DC with nuclear weapons, but it appears that his rockets can easily reach the West Coast. Come to think of it, maybe that's what trump wants. He would get rid of one big blue state and two smaller ones in one fell swoop.
2
Trump's boasts, threats and just the simple fact of his being in office is a disaster for our country.
Nothing the man says or does is rooted in any logic whatsoever, unless, of course the logic is rooted in his own self-aggrandizement.
From a foreign relations standpoint, he is compromising the US' ability to enter into international agreements with his willingness to undermine existing agreements. Trump seems unaware that his actions undermine both the credibility and national honor of the US. After Trump, what foreign country will be willing to enter into any contractual relationship with the US on any matter that requires the other party to compromise its own stated principles?
That said, we have North Korea and the Kim dynasty. And their decades of threats, subversion and acts of war against South Korea. And their lies and duplicity regarding the international agreements they've committed their national honor to uphold.
Wars happen because on side believes its own propaganda that it can impose its leaders' will upon another nation's people. Everything else is just an excuse. WWI, the most famous example of an "accidental war" was actually caused by the ambition of their Kaiser and the Junkers. The assassination and the treaties were the trigger, but the war was the decision, premeditated, of the German leaders.
We can expect the same from Kim.
When children play with matches, people get burned. Right now the children are Kim and Trump.
1
Re: "Trump’s entire strategy"
Seriously? You propose that Trump has a strategy?
3
As someone living in Hawaii, we have been asked to prepare for a nuclear attack. There are no nuclear shelters, and HNL is a dense urban area. Casualties are expected to be in hundreds of thousands in the first few moments, so any preparation is in case we do survive. But as a blue state which didn't vote for Trump, will the Federal Govt treat the survivors the same way they are treating Puerto Rico?
2
So if China cuts off their oil supply [80 - 90% depending on source], not much happens?
I am terrified for our nation. We have been saddled with an Electoral College appointed/ popular vote losing president who had the mind set of a bombastic teenager. His ideas about how the world "should work" are at odds with how the world actually works. He isn't able to understand that the real world consequences of of his threats and braggadocia could result in the deaths of thousands of innocent people. Although I don't think Vice-president Pence would be much better, he might be sane enough to dial down the bluster before we do something irreparable.
3
Trump's incompetence, instability, and ignorance aside, can we just accept at face value North Korean claims that its nukes are only for defense? Aren't their apparent abilities to obliterate Seoul with conventional artillery fire and to deliver a nuke there, as well, a sufficient deterrent to any aggressive action by the U.S. or South Korea? Rational people here have repeatedly alluded to the U.S. induced and/or aided demises of Saddam and Gaddafi, after foreswearing nukes, as justification for North Korean intransigence on the issue. But isn't it just as likely that the regime is looking at the Soviet Union, which collapsed of its own weight after Gorbachev struck a nuclear arms deal with Ronald Reagan, who had referred to his nation as The Evil Empire and was once caught on an open mic fantasizing that "the bombers are on their way"? Reduce the external threat, real or perceived, and the internal pressures for reform rise. One must also ask if Kim merely wants his regime to survive, or if he has a madman's dream of fulfilling his grandfather's insane goal of uniting the Korean Peninsula by force, which started the Korean War in 1950. Does this not justify a multilateral demand that North Korea give up its nuke ambitions? All that being said, we must try mightily to find a way, without war, to put North Korea and its regime on a path to where, if the regime survives, it is no more a threat to anyone than Vietnam, or China. Which makes Mr. Trump part of the issue.
NK began its nuclear program 30-40 years ago, decades before Saddam and Ghedaffi were household words, decades before George W. Bush's "Axis of Evil" speech, and even before Ronald Reagan became President. The theory that NK has developed nukes in response to the Gulf Wars and the Libya Adventure is pure bunk.
NK has developed nukes for two reasons: (I) to blackmail the US into making significant geopolitical concessions and lifting economic sanctions; and (II) to checkmate and deter the US from coming to the defense of SK when NK decides to bring to fruition its decades-old dream of unifying the Korean Peninsula under its control. NK does not need, and has never needed, nuclear weapons for defense. Its massive heavy artillery arrayed along the DMZ, and its thousand of tons of chemical weapons (which can reach China and Japan) are AMPLE to deter any thought of US aggression. In fact, since the Armistice, the US has never fired a shot directly against NK, even when it engaged in acts of war against the US. Why would the US want to invade NK except in circumstances where it became an intolerable menace to it and its allies?
We must be VERY clear in understanding that NK is an AGGRESSIVE, dangerous absolute dictatorship which has proven to be willing to sacrifice its own citizens to hold on to power and to achieve its political objectives. While it is not inherently suicidal, it can become fanatical and willing to take on extraordinary risks, much as was true of Hitler.
Let be back to the Middle Age when knight tournament were organized. The Secretary of Defence could fight the North Korean of Defence. The Secretary of State could fight the Foreign Affair Minister of North Korea. Generals against Generals. Diplomates against Diplomates. And the great finally President Kim against President Trump. As referees the People Republic of China and Japan should provide them.
Usually, as a citizen of the United States you could rest somewhat easy on the maturity and rational minds of American leaders, no longer.
2
Ok, fair assessment, but is there a better option? There is no longer a status quo. Kim has a functioning nuclear bomb - probably several of them, and is very close to a rocket that can hit the US and he could always use a container ship or a sub to deliver a nuclear bomb on the coast today.
What is the diplomatic solution? Lift sanctions in return for what? If you believe that North Korean won't give up their nuclear program, than what is there to talk diplomatically about?
The longer we wait, the better Kim's bomb's and rockets become, the worse the situation becomes diplomatically or militarily. Accelerating the regime collapse before they actually have a missile that can wipe out LA seems like a less bad option that what we tried for the last 50 years.
The only other option I see is to let / force South Korean to make a nuclear bomb, and pull out of South Korea.
1
North Korea of course borders on China, and the eastern Russian border is very close to NK as well.
If NK got rid of all its weapons, how could the USA invade or overthrow NK with China and Russia being so close.
The USA would never do that, and if the NK got rid of its nuclear weapons the USA would have no incentive to attempt to overthrow the NK regime.
So America is not a realistic threat to NK because of its proximity to China and Russia, but then why is NK developing and stockpiling nuclear weapons if not for
aggressive purposes??????
Through South Korea? The USA would "never do that". Forgive the rest of the world for not believing that. If that is truly the US position then why not try the approach of a non aggression pact for the Korean Peninsula and Japan? The US is the stronger in this situation so why not act like the grown ups.
North Korea would love to have a peace treaty with the US, and for the US to withdraw all troops and military hardware from the Korean Peninsula, and also terminate all military exercises with South Korea. North Korea also wants the US to lift economic sanctions and recognize it as a nuclear power. But significantly, NK will not sign a peace treaty with SK, because it considers SK to be an illegitimate, renegade puppet government and "stooge" of the US. The US can't sign a peace treaty with NK which does not also include SK as well as the eventual, VERIFIABLE denuclearization of the entire Peninsula.
For the foreseeable future, the chances of such a peace treaty are zero.
All true. However, there is one more factor: Korean culture.
Koreans North and South have a cultural style for dealing with confrontation. They never back down. They get right up in your face.
It isn't Japan. They don't go out of their way to avoid confrontation. They'll get right in there and scream back.
I don't mean this in a derogatory way. Germans have a national style, Italians do too, and they are different. One just needs to know who one is dealing with.
With Koreans, wild talk and confrontation will instantly get back wilder talk and even more confrontation. It is near automatic.
What Trump is doing is perfectly calculated -- to not work in Korea.
6
So true.
1
The time to stop North Korea, militarily, from building nuclear weapons seems to have passed. Whatever happened to mutually assured destruction? Is there some reason this can't apply to North Korea? Perhaps, if we didn't offer Kim Jong Un a reason to suspect that we want to destroy him or North Korea and instead offered incentives for them to cooperate with the rest of the world and prosper, there would be no reason for them to be our enemy.
3
Now, more than ever, I support the NFL players who take a knee during the national anthem. What started as a protest against police shootings of unarmed black people is now an heroic gesture that can distract the president from thinking about launching nuclear missiles for a week or more. Here's hoping the NBA and MLB players can be just as heroic in defense of our country against its leader.
13
Todd--Right! I think all 70% of them should take the knee. Our anthem and flag have nothing to do with any of this. It's about the treasonous behavior of tRump, the Republicans, militarized police forces, the justice department, under General Beauregard Sessions, and white supremacists who would like to annihilate all people who aren't white, including North Koreans.
1
There are really only two choices here:
1) do nothing and allow North Korea to perfect their nuclear delivery systems to the point where they can viably threaten not only their neighbors, but also the US.
or
2) do something to finally remove this threat. This option scares the heck out of pretty much everybody. The past 3 administrations have tried the diplomatic/economic sanctions approach with zero effect. So, that leaves the military solution, it would seem.
Honestly, this would be an issue regardless of who was in the White House. My personal view is to have the war over there, not over here. Awful choice, but don't see a better solution. Must finally address this. We cannot be allowed to be backed into a corner by this little terrorist. Nobody wants war, but honestly, I don't see any more road to kick the can nor do I see any diplomatic/economic alternatives. Choices are bad and worse...
3
How about just ignore them. Or, use them as a lesson what a totalitarian/cult government looks like. After all from space at night they don't even exist. Just a black hole of poor governing.
1
There are two choices:
1. Stop North Korea from achieving ICBM nuclear capability by whatever means necessary (probably war); or
2. Do not stop North Korea and eventually abandon South Korea and withdraw all troops from that country.
If the US intends to continue to defend South Korea, it MUST choose option 1.
Bluster does not resolve geopolitical problems. Take a look at the First World War for lessons on that subject. Peace is reached through both leverage and trust. We have neither with North Korea. Sanctions have failed, China has no influence, and the only leverage we have identified is a massive war effort that will result in millions of deaths. I suggest we need to build a demonstrably effective missile defense, against both ICBM and submarine borne missiles. Perhaps the use of that system against test missiles launched by NK will provide the additional leverage we need. Will NK launch a war if we shoot down missiles aimed at Guam or over Japan? Probably not. Then we need a President who knows how to build rapport and trust with people who are currently hostile. Most CEO’s have this skill; Trump seems to lack it and disdain any opportunity to learn it.
2
Trump is about hatred, anger, and self above all. Of course he is itching to start a war.
3
Kim Jong-un is playing the distraction card to perfection. North Korea points to America as an excuse to test and load up its atomic arsenal, when in fact, they're building their defense, completely unchecked, for better leverage against China... If America dropped its rhetoric, with no one to shout at at, China will soon realize, the entire North Korean buildup is actually meant for them.
8
Someone just needs to explain to Trump what is really going on, He needs to be made to understand that he is being played. If he understands that he is being used by the North Koreans, that he is their tool and doing their bidding, he could conceivably be convinced to change his tactics. As a deal maker he should be able to understand that he is trying to negotiate with people who are in a non-negotionable position aware as they are of the fates of Iraq and Libya and that he is wasting his time. If he really wants to shake up the game in his signatory way he should begin to remove US ground forces and ABM systems from the Korean peninsula, while leaving naval and air forces in place. That would provide the North Koreans with a far more difficult reality than they have now. As for the North Korean nukes themselves, we are just going to have to live with them, no big deal really. If you want to worry about nukes, worry about Pakistan.
1
The VP, the Cabinet and Congress need to step up and institute Article 25, then Pence can reason with our adversaries.
1
Who doesn't have a secret admiration to super-heroes? To be like one for whom condemnation is brushed off like a leaf landing on your shoulder. And, crowds resonating with the power of your will. It's intoxicating, and Trump the teetotaler is addicted. It appears he could no longer live without this than one on opioids or crack.
There are a group of some two score of Senators and Member of Congress, who can cast away the tainted Trumpian Republicanism and indict and impeach this individual who hints at the storm that will follow his calm "rationality"
He needs his omniscience as others need affection, respect and a sense of being a full human being. None of this matters to him, only that he controls that Storm, that he can cast those lightening bolts, the more disastrous, the more satisfying.
If North Korea, whether from external or internal pressure, is beginning to implement economic reforms and liberalize its culture, what does that tell you about the preferred path of Kim’s regime into the future? It may not include the destructive instinct that the officials were instructed to tell you to tell us.
1
This is a fascinating and tantalizing possibility. Nevertheless, Kim knows that North Korea will no longer remain the absolute, Medieval monarchy it has been since 1945 if it opens up to the free world and allows commerce, trade and communications to seep in. I'm not convinced that he is prepared to give up his absolute power in the process (and also risk the possibility of a revolution from below), but I might be proven wrong.
I am reminded of the Stay Puff Marshmallow Man in Ghostbusters.
Trump the narcissist would love to be a war president, and so would his followers (comrades).
1
Sure when Trump tears up the nuclear Iran deal North Korea will rush to sign a deal with the USA to curtail nuclear weapon expansion. We are being led by an ignorant narcissist who thinks he is the state and his fragile ego must be defended to the death of course others not him. We have seen how he behaves know what informed GOP senators think about him to do nothing is inexcusable as the consequences to lives at risk outweigh the damage to a narcissistic buffoon who thinks the presidency is a tv show all about him.
3
Curious - how many of that 1 million casualties would be American?
1
If you are looking for historical comparators for Trump, you can’t do much better than Kaiser Wilhelm II. Even before he led Germany into World War I, he had recklessly alienated every other nation, most importantly Great Britain, with both provocative actions (e.g., building up a German navy to rival England’s) and gratuitous insults (telling a British newspaper, “You English are mad, mad, mad as March hares”). Sound familiar?
One of his chief ministers later wrote:
“A dark foreboding ran through many Germans that such stupid, even puerile speech and action on the part of the Supreme Head of State could lead to only one thing - catastrophe.”
And it did. After Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand was murdered by Serbian agents, Wilhelm egged Austria-Hungary into attacking Serbia, promising that Germany would come to its aid if Russia intervened on Serbia’s behalf, which Russia did. Germany declared war on Russia, immediately attacked Russia’s ally France and neutral Belgium, bringing England in on France’s side, and the war was on.
6
I think it's fair to compare Kim to Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany.
Trump knew nothing upon taking office, has learned nothing since and acts like he is still a host of a reality TV show. Fatal flaw #1 that is undoing this country is his nonacceptance of wise council owing to a narcissism that leads him to believe that he is the smartest person in the room when he is anything but. Fatal flaw #2 is he has not surrounded himself with very many who could provide that wise council.
4
Going to war with false excuses and reasons is classic Republican tactics. Only this time there is only one American getting attacked and he has very thin orange skin. His ego is enormous and that could lead to an attack. God alone help us if something like that happens!
3
So what do we do? North Korea has no problem threating the U.S. with its missles and they are bullding them.
1
His strategy is not about North Korea. His strategy is obfuscation of his Russian collusion. He will go the nuclear option before he will resign. It is up to our Republican Congress to recognize that he is a lunatic and remove him. Adult daycare indeed…
3
Just by alluding to attacking another country with nuclear weapons Trump shows how unhinged and morally bankrupt he is. This congress, by not removing him from office demonstrates how cowardly they really are. Shame on them and shame on the people who elevated a narcissistic bully to the highest office in the land.
2
I am honestly scared of the President's trip to Asia next month. The way that he's been acting lately - I can see him doing something stupid like shouting "hey Rocketman" across into North Korea from the DMZ. General Kelly will need to bring a shorter leash on this trip.
3
Wars also happen when you have a vain, immature, and careless paper-tiger leader at the helm of a huge military apparatus. Thats' what Kaiser Wilhelm was, and that who Trump is.
7
How has the US responded to other countries developing nuclear weapons? The UK and France are firm allies. Containment and deterrence worked with the Soviet Union, China. India, Pakistan, South Africa, Israel(unacknowledged) haven't presented threats.
Why the sudden panic over North Korea? Their first nuclear test was ten years ago. They haven't been much of a threat for a decade, but Trump has decided they are a grave, imminent threat.
It has been repeatedly reported that Trump doesn't have the attention span to sit through briefings. What basis of fact does he use for making decisions? Are his decisions based on facts?
I think Trump is primarily, maybe solely, motivated by emotion. He gets a push-pull effect with a significant portion of the US populace. He has learned what sends his followers into ecstasies of adoration and plays to the crowd. Notice the extreme change in his delivery when he is reading a teleprompter message compared to his stream of consciousness bile during a rally. His speech is never as authentic as when he is denigrating some "other." North Korea presents an opportunity. They feed into the racism of his core base. They enable the posturing of strength his core base mistakes for resolution. It plays well in Peoria.
The basic problem is we don't know whether his bombast is policy or rhetoric. Trump changes direction at the drop of a hat. Just suppose Kim called him a moron, he might attack out of pique.
5
The sudden panic over North Korea is that the US is treaty-bound to defend South Korea, and NK's sudden ability to devastate American cities with hydrogen bombs makes such defense obligations excessively perilous. North Korea has always had plans to unify the Peninsula under its control, and indeed this concept is part of the NK Constitution. "Deterring" a nuclear NK is unacceptably dangerous, even assuming it works (which it may not). NK is NOT like the Soviet Union, because the underlying facts are different, as are the geostrategic goals of NK.
I can't even get past the headline. You can't dignify anything Trump does with the name of "strategy." He's a reality TV clown and a pathological narcissist who does and says whatever to draw the attention to himself that he so pathetically craves. Period. He's not crazy like a fox. He's just crazy. Don't kid yourself.
5
Donald Trump should challenge Kim Jong-un to a summo wrestling match...the weight is right, the anger is there, and they could settle their differences without losing one life...except for the loser...a fight to the death.
3
Mr. Kristof states the historically obvious: bluff and intimidation, which is diplomacy backed by inaction, won't work on North Korea's Kim. It has been tried repeatedly and has always failed.
But the alternative frightens him.
Kim is a dictator like Hitler - a totalitarian who sets up a straw man that he sells to his people as the monster that threatens their existence, and against whom he alone can protect them - as the means to keep himself in power.
But when he can - like all the megalomaniacs in history before him - he must act so his people will not see him for what he really is and destroy him.
To that Mr. Kristof and his von whatever supporters have no answer. They would have us sit, do nothing, and wait until mushroom clouds rise over American cities. Then, maybe the smell of the bodies of millions of incinerated Americans might move them to act.
Our president, as any dutiful president must, wants to act to prevent such an event. He would destroy the little fat Un before Un can kill our co-citizens, our neighbors, our grandchildren, and us.
1
Well stated.
Interesting that one US president utters one foolish, horribly militant and violent condemnation of NK once and NK cries foul, meanwhile those Kim regime sociopaths have been spewing such horrible things daily for decades. Makes you laugh, until you remember those sociopaths now have nukes.
1
Just as they have destroyed the integrity of their own political party by trading power for riding the whirl wind; Now they can take responsibility for destruction of the world as we know it because no one had the guts to stand up to the crazy monkey who is at the wheel of the vehicle of state. That is if there is anyone left to give them credit for it. History will not be kind to this spineless troupe of political cowards who have traded their integrity for a parcel of magic beans. The spirits of incinerated millions will stand at the judgment seat and testify against them because they were counting their change while Trump burned down their house around them. Isn’t there any one in this Political Party with an ounce of soul and caring for humanity? They are all wrapped up in their egos and in filthy lucre. Sad! When it happens you will never know. It will all happen in the blink of an eye, and then it will be too late to grow a spine. The crash of the world economy will prove that your money won’t be enough to hide you from the fire-storm to come. Lamborghini's incinerate as easily as Fords and Chevrolet's. Its hard to decide who will be the lucky ones; the ones who survive or the ones who don’t. I guess those stay at home and protest voters who thought nothing bad could happen if a clown got elected are about to find out. Trump is one scary clown. Every vote counts.
3
"......official narrative that its nuclear arsenal is defensive, meant to protect Koreans from bullying American imperialists. " They have really fake news
Let us be clear: War on the Korean peninsula would be the most horrific act of genocide in human history.
The President of the United States is deeply insane.
Dear Planet, please help us.
4
Where can we get the poster?
Quantum politics and the art of uncertainty is everyone's strategy to survive the world that is lost and in dreaming of mushrooms clouds to solve our problems for the Russians Chinese Koreans and etc.
1
"Men at some time are masters of their fate. The fault . . . is not in our stars but in ourselves for we are underlings."
Accordingly, stop the mincing around and put the blame for any pending nuclear holocaust where it belongs: on the Americans who voted for Donald J. Trump.
2
Along with the Bernie extremists who stayed home, wrote in a name, or voted for Jill Stein.
Thanks Bernie.
1
So, Annie, you're suggesting that either or both Sanders and Stein would start a nuclear war in the same fashion as Donald Trump? If so, please find another country than the United States to spread your wings . . .
No, she is suggesting that Bernie extremists who stayed home, wrote in a name, or voted for Jill Stein are just as culpable as those who voted for that man!
He will start WWIII
Obviously you are grossly under-informed but to make truth of your statement, If WWIII is the entire world against NK then he will in deed start it.
The ultimate truth is by taking out NK in this administration, we're actually avoiding WWIII. Unless you believe a more powerful NK who sells ICBMs to Iran will make for a more stable planet.
Thank you for your columns on North Korea. I am 62 years old, generally optimistic and was a younger adult during the nuclear standoffs with the Soviet Union and Mutually Assured Destruction. It was nerve wracking but, somehow, the actors then seemed rational. Today, both appear irrational and have discarded traditional diplomatic language and paths. Trump tries to be our Supreme Leader.
I said to my wife a few evenings ago that I deeply doubt we will live to an older age. Our leaders are reckless and ego driven and will do something to destroy us. I also told her that if any of our unmarried children asked about having children, I would strongly discourage it. Why bring more children into this country to suffer an inevitable nuclear fire?
30
Trump's strategy? What strategy? The man is handling NK just like he handles any other perceived conflict: by bullying and blustering. It's all he knows. There's simply nothing deeper there. For those of us who saw this fool for what he was long before last year's election, it's all the more terrifying for having been so predictable and for having watched millions of our fellow citizens be blind enough to cheer it all on.
I dread reading the headlines every day, because every day he does something destructive to our civility, our national security, our most vulnerable citizens, the environment, and to our democracy itself.
5
I think your basic misconception is thinking Trump has a "strategy" other than complete and total chaos. He is a pampered CEO of a privately held family business, with NO experience in world politics or military goals. He could get what he wanted by lawsuits and stiffing his creditors. That doesn't work when your opponent has a nuclear arsenal and a hair trigger.
3
My problem with your reasoning is that you admit that diplomacy won't stop the "Divine Leader" from getting a bomb and missile to threaten peace. You fail to mention that four administrations before Trump's conned everyone into believing diplomacy would work, all logic to the contrary. Two of those administrations were Democrats.
We and our allies are confronted with a psychopath willing to kill his own family and people without remorse. What makes you think he will give it a thought in bombing Seattle or the west coast or Japan?
We are looking at a madman who leaves in his own protected cocoon. He will not be stopped except with force. Despite the foolish rhetoric, Trump knows another bully when he sees one. We must be prepared to utterly destroy North Korea's capacity for waging war, any kind of war, and we must admit it to ourselves that not planning for inevitable war risks lives.
Otherwise, what will we do when Jong-un destroys a city under the umbrella of China and Russia? Are we that timid that we are not ready to implement the strategy of MAD when it is needed?
North Korea is definitely the Mouse that Roared. However, backed into a corner, who knows? Especially with the US led by the dimmest wit in its history (that's right G.W. - you are off the hook. there is a successor to the Worst Ever).
3
As usual, I disagree with Mr. Kristof. How long are we going to talk to this guy with no results? We've tried to appease this guy long enough. You want to keep your head in the sand and hope Pyongyang forgets about us and moves on to other things? so NAIVE! if you think KIM is out of control now wait until this nutcase has a weapon that really works and can get to our part of the world. Sometimes you just have to man up and take the fight when you are being pushed around - rule 101 of dealing with any bully. Are you all such cowards!!! MAN UP! Winter is coming!
"Jawohl, mein Führer", said the generals, "one kick in the door and the whole rotten edifice of Bolshevik Russia will collapse." Success upon success in the West had emboldened the Wehrmacht. Surely those illiterate peasants were no match? Besides had the Stalin regime not itself destroyed its best military leaders? No contest, victory was assured. Until it wasn't.
And, truth be told, Nazi Germany had a far better record than the USA at winning. Looking at the actual results on the ground, the US hasn't decisively won a conflict since, well 1945, when the Red Army bore the brunt of the fighting and dying. Korea? Armistice. Vietnam? Hmmm, old enough to remember the scramble to get aboard the last helicopter taking off. Grenada? Panama? Seriously, you want to even take those into account? 1st Gulf War, hmmm, not really though. Because, 2nd Gulf War and the ongoing disaster in the Levant... Afghanistan, you must be joking!
Yes, the US "won" the Cold War. Not by actually fighting it, but by making ever more sophisticated and expensive technology that pushed the Soviet Union beyond it capabilities. Well done, truly, but no reference should it come down to a real, actual fighting war.
Nuking North Korea would be the dumbest possible thing to do. Alas, that doesn't make it the most improbable...
3
Boycott Chinese goods and buy local. China supplies North Korea with over 95% of all they need to survive. China continues to be the problem.
1
China now makes virtually everything. Let me know when you have boycotted all Chinese products and then I'll know you've become a subsistence farmer in Patagonia.
2
Your commentary forgets one critical piece of information. How much does it cost North Korea in resources to maintain constant readiness for war? With sanctions starting to bite the "military first" policy will divert remaining imports away from civilian use.
I guess we can wait until NK has 20 or 30 ICBMs aimed at Los Angeles before we start to get serious.
Trump is only reacting to the threats that the North Koreans have made about turning the U.S. into an ash heap. If the North Koreans miscalculate Trump may launch a massive preemptive strike that will destroy that country to an extent that a response from them would be impossible. Just a few Ohio class nuclear subs stationed close to North Korea each carrying 24 missiles each, with several nuclear warheads on each missile would incerate all of North Korea and they wouldn’t know hit them
The cloud of radiation produced by such an attack on the north would no doubt kill many more people in neighboring countries than the attack itself did in North Korea. Not to mention the worldwide total economic chaos that would ensue afterwards. I think a better plan is called for..........
Operating on "wishful thinking" is a statement that reflects the current way Mr. Trump operates in the world - as if in a reality TV show - where truth is optional and misconceptions and feelings rule. Well, you are right Mr. Kristof, this is how wars happen. Please America - wake up - put checks and balances in place to prevent this impulsive power hungry narcissistic man from tweeting us into a catastrophic war.
4
I fear that Trump regards the killing of millions of South Koreans as a feature, not a bug. His only concern with North Korea is whether it can physically attack the United States. If the devastation of a Second Korean War means that Samsung, Daewoo and Hyundai no longer compete with American businesses, he thinks, so much the better.
8
War is scary and will be tragic with potentially millions dying.
Not going to war is worse!
North Korea will not under any circumstances voluntarily stop developing its weapons capabilities. They are working on more powerful hydrogen bombs, being able to place them on ICBMs and submarine launched ballistic missiles, more advanced biochemical weapons, putting nuclear bombs in space where it will be impossible to intercept them.
North Korea is clearly willing to engage in a game of chicken. They have been doing it for many years now. Given an unstoppable nuclear arsenal, they will demand: ending sanctions, annexing South Korea, removal of all US military forces from Japan, and on and on. They know the US would be foolish to reject these demands because they will be able to kill hundreds of millions of US citizens.
Furthermore, it would be in North Korea's best interests for them to sell (or even give away) ICBMs preloaded with hydrogen bombs to Syria, Isis, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, or any other country or organization that would be willing to use these against the US.
Yes, the possibility of millions of people dying now is horrific. But it pales in comparison to the greater possibility of hundreds of millons or billions dying in a world-wide nuclear conflagration.
We have a window of probably a few months when it is unlikely North Korea can strike Washington DC or New York with a hydrogen bomb.
1
I believe that we are witnessing the most dangerous moment in World History, more dangerous than the Cuban Missile Crisis because the Soviets proved to be more cautious than the North Koreans, and recognized that they had a great deal to lose over a small and relatively unimportant island called Cuba.
Think back (in my case, way back) to your years in Junior High School. Do you remember the confrontations between the two bullies in the schoolyard? They would circle each other, yelling taunts and threats of impending doom, denigrating each other and each other's families, then eventually get tired of it and each go their separate ways, threatening each other all the while.
Sound familiar? It is a shame that two nuclear armed countries have leaders who would fit better into 7th grade than a world stage, but such is life.
3
We couldn't have a worse situation with both leaders being of the same dangerous temperament. If only the two of them were alone in a room and had to create some kind of solution.......but what really is likely is nuclear bombs dropping on millions of people and both leaders claiming they had no choice and were victorious. It is only a matter of time.
Settle this by knife fight in a cage between the 2 dictators.
Trump wants war. If not on the Korean peninsula, then Venezuela, Syria, or Iran. That is or should be obvious to everyone. Corker sees it but is alone among Republicans in calling it out. Taken apart from all the rest, the lying, the destruction of legally authorized programs, the corruption in his Cabinet, a President seeking war is sufficient grounds for removal under the 25th Amendment, if only his Cabinet and the Congress had the courage to act. The reports of his increasingly erratic behavior in the White House do nothing but add urgency to the argument.
1
When will we have the journalistic courage to call Trump what he is, a terrorist.
Right. We have a terrorist for President. Here is kind of general dictionary definition of terrorism, the use of violence and or threats of violence to intimidate or coerce, especially for political purposes, to induce the state of fear and submission in people as a tool of government or of resisting a government.
Terrorism is Trumps primary methodology of being. It is his method of getting the "best deal". To Trump, "government is the problem" all of this equality stuff and good neighbor stuff interferes with making a profit. His goal to make America Great is to terrorize all the rest of the world's nations into some kind of submission so that we can make a profit off of them.
This is crazy! But you already knew that.
8
The rantings (aka tweets) of a lunatic bully should never be dignified by being called a "strategy." Nuclear chicken is or should be unimaginable, but here we are tottering at the brink where only a madman would dare to venture. The U.S. has to be the adult here, but we have a child in a temper tantrum with his fingers on the nuclear button intimating that this may well be "the calm before the storm." More Republican adults like Sen. Corker have to come forward immediately to stop the insanity before the button is pushed.
1
This is The Guns of August all over again.
Misconceptions, over-estimations of one's own strength, underestimating the resolve of the other side...it's all here. And once mobilization begins, it is almost impossible to draw it down.
North Korea is a cult. Contain it, restrain it, wait. Time is on our side, not theirs.
North Korea will never give up its nuclear weapons. We don't seem to be able to give up Donald Trump. There is trouble ahead, big trouble.
2
Regardless of North Korea's bluster, Trump has destroyed the option of diplomacy. He has no concept of the term, much less the painstaking work and patience it takes to achieve results. All of the things being said about North Korea today were being said about Iran in 2008. Yet after working with our allies to put the tightest sanctions ever on Iran and years of painstaking diplomatic efforts, Iran voluntarily gave up the vast majority of it nuclear program. That program, of course, is in the process of being destroyed by Trump. My question is, will we see the Trump children in uniform putting their lives on the line when this administration starts another war? Doubtful. Rather, the drumbeats towards war will continue to assuage DT's ego. This will truly be the dumbest war America has ever found itself in during its history. And the results will be calamitous.
3
It may just be that North Korea has the most accurate interpretation of Trump's personality. If a few million people have to die to stroke Trump's ego, that's a price he is willing to pay.
2
pulleeese - trump does not have a "strategy" on north korea. he has no idea what a strategy is. his mind is like making pop corn - no logic, pattern, just pops and pops. then the next day it is stale.
let's not give him any credit for thinking or behaving strategically.
3
The fact that our current president (who, much like the villain in the Harry Potter books cannot be named) completely misunderstands the North Korean psyche, and miscalculates the leverage of threats against them is about as surprising as learning that outer space is devoid of air or that immersing one's self in the ocean would result in getting wet.
Sadly, it seems there is almost nothing our current president actually does understand sufficiently to be considered competent. Even worse, none of the things he might possibly comprehend would stave off nuclear war.
2
Maybe trump should build a wall-high enough to keep out missles; of course, North Korea would be made to pay for it.
5
Is a tragic irony that the U.S., which produced the cult of “How to Win Friends and Influence People”, has so much trouble winning friends and influencing people around the world?
We are not going to get North Korea to give up their nuclear weapons. But what do you suppose would happen in any discussion with or about North Korea, we start by congratulating them on their remarkable technological achievement? And to all accounts it is remarkable, considering where they began. They might be able to accept a calmer discussion of the dangerous Mexican Standoff we are in.
Of course this idea is probably a nonstarter with Trump and Co.
I have never been to North Korea but you can still understand them as south Asians; we perform best under pressure. We too here in India were under American sanctions for a long time but few know about it. Sanctions cement the people and conventional propaganda machinery gets the better excuse. The common understanding here is that it is the Americans who love the war (particularly when it is far from their place) and it is our job to stop it. But the real thing is that the world is getting smaller and smaller and more and more people are asking more questions. Wars have become embarrassing but it is only money that talks.
1
Please explain how it's possible for China to have reached a situation where it has no influence on the North-Korean regime. It makes no more sense than would the USA be unable to prevent Mexico reaching nuclear-weapon status and to do anything serious about it now besides voting UN resolutions. And how could China let the USA and North-Korea start a nuclear war at its doorstep ? If the US administration is part of the problem, the Chinese government should be part of the solution. And you, as most commentators, seem to largely ignore it. Why ?
1
Strong piece. But perhaps we should not speak of misconception as such, but rather of dominant conjectures. It’s beyond challenging to assess the possible dynamics in the North Korean regime. For instance, about the first misconceptions stated, namely that pressure and sanctions are helpful—Kristof points out these are being neatly leveraged to further anchor the legitimacy of the regime. But one can argue the heightened mobilization is a sign of considerable stress and that there must be the realization in Kim’s inner circle that the game has suddenly become much more dangerous. Secondly, Kristof points out the great frustrations and limited influence China is experiencing: yes, but still. China, beyond border trade, certainly would have contacts and intelligence on the top elite and ways to signal the limits to its patience. Third, Kristof is right: we’ve been waiting for decade for the oft announced collapse of the regime. But I sense eventually cognitive dissonance breaks down these cult like regimes, and a war footing, mobilized state conceivably accelerates the process, since the fear is existential and personal and the top elite cannot be fully insulated from knowledge of the world. But beneath the appearance of a granite like cohesion and determination hides—perhaps-- a more precarious state. The key point: we don’t know—there is great uncertainty and no sure assessment. It’s an awful moment to be lead by an erratic undisciplined moronic president.
1
How ironic. This year's Nobel Peace Prize went to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, a group that promotes nuclear disarmament around the world. At the same time, two irrational children in adult clothing have brought the world closer to nuclear war than it was during the Cuban missile crisis. How real is the worry? So real that Democratic representative Ted Lieu of California introduced the Restricting First Use of Nuclear Weapons Act, which would prohibit a "first-use nuclear strike absent a declaration of war by Congress." The need for this Act is immediate, because neither Kim Jong-Un nor Donald Trump know or care about the destruction they could unleash. A 2014 report published in the journal Earth's Future found that even a regional war of 100 nuclear detonations would produce 5 billion kilograms of black soot that would foul Earth's stratosphere and block sunlight, leading to a sudden drop in global temperatures that could last longer than 25 years and temporarily destroy much of the planet's protective ozone layer. This could also cause as much as an 80 percent increase in UV radiation -- enough to destroy both land and sea-based ecosystems, potentially leading to global nuclear famine. The United States alone has 4,000 nuclear weapons. Trump allegedly wants 40,000 in America's arsenal. The potential devastation is hard to imagine.
Sinclair Lewis wrote "It Can't Happen Here." Donald Trump is proving him wrong.
2
Here are two ideas that haven't been tried:
1) Withdraw some or all of the 37,500 U.S. troops in South Korea. South Korea has a modern, well-equipped and well-trained army of 600,000, with another 3 million in reserve. Make a gesture that disarms the North Korean claim that the U.S. is the belligerent. Play the game the right way, with the right moves.
2) Make a backroom deal with China to invade NK from the north. China safely takes over the regime. The U.S. withdraws troops from South Korea. China abandons its man-made islands. South Korea and China agree to a wider, better organized DMZ, but the borders are more open for trade. Perhaps China agrees to keep troop levels in North Korea down in exchange for a reduction in size of the South Korean army (imagine the SK economy if they spend more money on communal wealth instead of on tanks and planes).
The North Korean nukes aren't even the real problem. They have 70 submarines. Even if a small number of those make it off of the coast of Los Angeles or San Fransisco, with conventional sub launched missiles, the outcome could be devastating. And what if they instead simply carry a nuke on board and work their way close to shore, or into a the harbor? Or to keep it simpler, what if their 14,000 artillery tubes and rocket launchers simply decimated Seoul? The global economy would tank, not to mention the loss of life.
It's time to think of something new, instead of playing this like a game of Risk.
1
The only military action that goes according to plan is a parade. Clearly Mr. Trump has no plan to occupy North Korea or even rebuild South Korea. Perhaps the best action would be for South Korea to request that the U.S. leave their nation, before it's too late.
2
One should try to make an opportunity out of this mess. Now, I don't think this has much of a chance of succeeding but the real long term issue is nuclear weapons in general. You really don't want more nations to join the nuclear weapons club. Whether North Korea should be a member or not is not the issue, it is a member today.
Others have proposed similar arguments so I won't take credit. Have Trump go to the UN and say we should try to make sure that no more nations join the nuclear clubs and that current members should try to reduce their nuclear arsenals by agreeing to a freeze on the number of weapons.
The above gives some breathing space with North Korea as it implicitly acknowledges the fact that we all know being that NK is a member of the nuclear weapons club whether we like it or not.
It gives Trump the ability to back away from being painted in the corner with unrealistic threats of military action. To be fair, we could go to war but it isn't a realistic option.
The above also has the advantage that like it or not unless something is done then we are likely to have even more countries with nuclear weapons in the future with the most notable example being Iran.
If you have lemons then try to make lemonade. I don't think that we can make lemonade out of this mess but it can't hurt to try.
DJT performs in front of two audiences: his adoring base, and the mirror. Neither one reflects reality back, so DJT believes that his bluster and insults and empty promises make him look strong and powerful and admirable. The POTUS lives in a fantasy world and his advisors are too afraid to acquaint him with reality. Talk about high crimes.
1
Continuing airborne exercises right on the border to emphasize our country's military might while Trump spews his bullying rhetoric seems ill-advised; why couldn't those have been halted while the times are so tense? If North Korea were flying its warplanes right off the West Coast while talking about turning the US into "fire," wouldn't we assume they were serious about attacking us? By continuing the exercises, the US has handed NK more basis for their propaganda. I'm 63 years old and live in the PNW; for only the second time since my childhood in the DC area during the Cuban missile crisis have I actually feared for a foreign military attack on the US mainland.
Kristof forgot to even mention an alternate strategy. I don't like Trump's strategy either. But at least he has one.
Bluster indeed could ignite a way. It also might ignite peace, as the players involve realize that kind thoughts and trust have given us a very dangerous world. Action on NK is ironically more possible today.
One is reminded of the fateful events of the summer of 1914, when Austria-Hungary demanded satisfaction from a small country named Serbia. Austria-Hungary prevailed upon its ally Germany, who responded by issuing a number of demands to Serbia, which were impossible for Serbia to fulfill. Russia came to the aid of Serbia. France and England came to the aid of Russia and by the time it was all over millions were dead. In my opinion the best thing the United States could do would be to turn the matter over to the South Koreans, allow them to negotiate whatever peace they believed to be in their best interest, even if that included reunification, and we should step back and protect South Korea only in the event of aggression from the north. Trump is accomplishing nothing, besides putting millions of lives at risk while entrenching the North's propaganda with regard to US aggression.
2
Not actually Sebastian, but his wife, writing here to say that I've been thinking for a long time that the humans are extremely destructive to themselves and to the other living beings on this planet and that we don't deserve to live on as a species. But right now I dread that the end is near, and I'm truly scared, mostly because I have kids and I wanted them to have a future despite my lack of faith in humanity.
5
While North Korea has a very bad and likely deserved Press in the U.S. especially its leadership, we must bear in mind that we are no more entitled to nuclear weapons than they are. Its remarkable that they can manufacture missiles and nuclear weapons and as Fareed Zaccharia remarks they are likely an insurance policy for the regime. Given Quadaffi's fate in Libya and Huseein's fate in Iraq, this is not entirely irrational. We are the only nuclear power who ever used these weapons and I am terrified that Trump will repeat. Given that he has unrestricted authority to order a nuclear strike, it will take military insubordination by the Defense Secretary to prevent a Trump strike if he orders one that is frivolous. After the Korean war to my knowledge North Korea has not engaged in any aggressive activity outside its country. Nuclear preemptive strikes facing no attack would delegitimize the entire U.S. government. Its hard to know how serious Trump is but needless to say this is all extremely frightening.
Something that's never been tried is a peace agreement between the US and North Korea. There's no reason for us to still be at a standstill with North Korea let alone wasting tax payer money for 30,000 soldiers each year. Nothing we say or do is going to change North Korea, those changes must come from within. But recognizing their right to exist will take some of the sting out of Kim Jong-Un's propaganda machine.
North Korea is going to be a nuclear power. Scary yes but also not something we can change. Kim Jong-Un isn't stupid. Despite what he's telling his people he's smart enough to know that being the first to fire a nuclear weapon will not end well for him. All he wants is what has eluded the Kim family for three generations and that's legitimacy.
3
This op-ed piece reminded me of America's folly in invading countries in the Middle East when we don't speak the language, know little of the culture, and do not understand our opponent's world view. The fact that the tension with North Korea is escalating is all the more frightening since we are being represented by a person who has no understanding of anything beyond what benefits his own ego. We should ALL be afraid, very afraid!
9
Why is this man still President? How many of our congressmen are so blinded by greed and ambition and fear that they can't step up to save the country? Don't they realize they would be heroes?
5
I acknowledge that economic sanctions to North Korea are not successful so that they could change Kim Jung Un's attidude and dangerous strategey. That's real. But if we accept a nation keeps nuclear weapons only for its survival in the internatonal world, how the world can achieve the purpose of restriction of the nuclear proliferation and what couintry doesn't want to have them? Furthermore, Kim is not willing to have dialogue. He is threatening to destroy South Korea and Seoul with nuclear weapons and missles. So no solution so far except for sanction and sanction until he steps ahead for conversation.
First of all, you have no idea what Trump's strategy is. You are assuming his bad cop routine is just a reckless blustering. So far some signs of success have been showing. China is moving our way on all of this. They know we are serious this time. No negotiations with NoKo could work without a serious threat of successful regime change. Tillerson says we are talking to NoKo directly too. Maybe you just don't get it...
Trump? Strategy?
You're joking!
2
Well, in a world gone mad America tried to keep its place in the world and our democracy stable. Our government has tried to keep us safe from attack. Our president, our Congress, and we, the people prefer peace and getting along with all our global neighbors. We believe in the sanctity of life and the overall prosperity and welfare of humanity at home and abroad. Despotic governments, like Putin's and North Korea, have a history of imploding on their own when their people come together and want better lives.
Now that has all changed under Trump. Trump is a divider and a destroyer and has no intention of keeping the United States of America united at home or united with its allies. His lifetime narcissistic disorder is now running amok in an aging brain and he is a danger who needs removal not just containment. Senator Corker is right on target. Trump believes himself to be in his own reality show and his sick and needy thirst for constant attention, 24/7, and at any cost could very well lead to war.
4
Why does the republican 'base' love the idea that Trump is on a fast track to having their sons and daughters nuked? (i.e., the 'base' being the mostly uneducated, gun-toting 30 or so % of the voting American public who voted for Trump wholeheartedly, who still think Trump is the best thing since swiss cheese was invented).
The Trump base seems to enjoy the idea of Trump and his buddies in the Senate and Congress ripping their benefits and federal support that allows them to survive to shreds. And the Trump base will never, ever back down from glorifying Trump no matter what Trump says and does to those 'beneath him' such as the poor, the immigrants, the women, the whatever...
What is it about this particular base that allows them and them alone to decide the fate of America and the rest of the world?
Let us all ponder these questions next local, state and national election, especially those who did not but could have voted in Nov. 2016...
3
"North Korea is a dictatorship, but it has an amusement park and a water park." Come on. North Korea is an aggressor which is using nuclear blackmail to preserve a discredited regime and threaten anyone who stands in its way. The Trump Administration is simply the first one to effectively stand up to it. Pretending that this is some kind of faceoff between moral equivalents is offensive and misleading.
their form of government gives us NO moral authority to kill the citizens of north korea ( or anywhere else). they have not attacked us, and until they do, we have no business threatening them , and certainly not attacking them. i think the extra testosterone shots trump must be getting to try to keep up with trophy wife #3 is leading to undue aggression and psychotic delusions
2
I really think that the NK crisis will be solved under Trump once for all. To be fair, he inherited the mess. Seriously, what option does he have now? Of course the West totally miscalculated and your articles are not helping. Instead, Trump should increase the pressure by more frequent military excercises and he should ask non-essential US citizens leave SK. The war is coming and so be it. We should not be hijacked by the fear of war. The message should be firm and clear. US should make an ultimatum offer to both the leader and the elites. The key of solving the problem is to break the bonding between the leader and the elites. They are together for the share interests but the relationship is not forever. Money can actually buy loyalty and a great life afterwards. The elites are not stupid. They will not want to stay in a sinking boat! In any way, unless US is serious about going to war, there is no hope left! Wise up!
9
Sir, We have thousands of American troops in South Korea who are at risk. Half or so of South Korea's population, our allies, is in the greater Soul area within range of some thousands of North Korean artillery.There are estimates of one million casualties in the first day of war. Some threats are not solvable, like the Soviet atomic threat against us for decades. But eventually internal contradictions and weaknesses led to Soviet collapse....
6
Under Clinton, there were contacts with realistic optimism for a rapprochement. Then Dubya's speechwriters put NK on the axis of evil--three is so much more effective rhetorically--and here we are. Granted, Kim is loonier than his father, but there is something he wants. The key is to find out what it is.
4
war can almost always be avoided and almost always leads to the death and suffering of innocent civilians, as it most certainly would here. there is no reason for a war right now. i hope the leaders of the rest of the world wake up and speak out loud and soon against this folly.
5
Trump does not understand the unimaginable horrors of nuclear war, nor does he understand, a recent NYT piece reveals, the purpose of the 25th amendment. Time to use the latter before he decides to push the red button on a whim.
1
Trump's nuclear war is ready for a single physical North Korean provocation ... one of our planes shot down, one of our ships fired upon. The clockwork of this contemporary human tragedy is wound tight... this single North Koran response to our staged provocation, historically similar to several others including the seizure of an AMerican Ship, like the "Pueblo incident." or the Gulf of Tonkin Vietnam incident, will be the justification for a first strike and Trump's war.
2
shooting down a plane does not justify killings thousands (or more) civilians. it does not justify war and never will.
2
I like getting a fresh perspective on North Korea but we need to put things in context. 3.9% GDP growth sounds impressive but North Korea's reported GDP is only around $12.5 billion. Even a 4% increase amounts to less than a billion dollars. Now compare that to the US economy where GDP is slowly approaching $20 trillion dollars. One billion is a drop in the bucket.
To be fair, the United States is a much bigger country. We can take GDP per capita though and get a rough sense of the disparity. North Korea's GDP per cap is around $600 USD. The US GDP per cap is around $52,000. These numbers are rough but let's not kid ourselves. The two economies are light years apart. Any simplified comparison is largely meaningless.
I agree with Kristof though. Trump is wrong to assume North Korea is teetering on collapse. Any South Korean will think you're joking or stupid if you said such a thing out loud. However, I'm not sure Trump cares one way or the other if his statements are grounded in reality. Everything he says has a loose relationship with the actual world. I don't think North Korea is any exception. Now that's dangerous.
I think Trump secretly loves the idea of war. Good for ratings. Trump is incapable of internalizing the true cost of such a decision. He doesn't understand that there is no winning a war with North Korea. Like WMDs, the assumptions are a justification for bad decisions. The assumptions being wrong is irrelevant to the decision.
45
Yes, except... and a big except... the Iraq WMD case was always weak and could be seen to be weak in real time. It was mostly conjecture if not fabrication. North Korea's threat, however, is demonstrably real. They really mean it. It's not just an art project for them to constantly create propaganda images of nuclear attack on U.S. cities. They clearly wish to push the U.S. out of the region and then dictate terms to South Korea and Japan.
North Korea has been preparing for war with the U.S. for three generations of insane, egotistical, foolish, family-emperor-styled leadership. Trump in office is just an excuse. NK called Obama a "Monkey in a tropical forest."
Any dream of not going to war with North Korea- now or later- is just that - a foolish dream. They want this war and they want to annex South Korea. They believe these things are doable and winnable - well, at least that's what they are saying to their population.
Unfortunately, they can't back down now. They've ignored the United Nations, they fired missiles over Japan and now their rockets are all dressed up with no place to go but war. So here it comes. It was in the making long before Trump took office and frankly, if war breaks out while Trump is president, this is better then it breaking out 10 or 15 years down the road when the death toll would be much higher.
The 12th century emperor with 21st century weapons is a model this planet has outgrown. Earth is a safer place with North Korea's government blasted to dust. No matter who is president when it happens.
Mr. Kristof's report increases the urgency of a Trump impeachment. Pence is awful, but without Trump, I doubt Pence would initiate war with North Korea, and hopefully wouldn't be engaging in childish and reckless Tweeting! The U.S., and the world, cannot tolerate another war and loss of life.
Will it take an attack on the U.S. to wake America up to the extreme danger Trump is creating? IMPEACH!
"What's the worst that could happen?"
There, you have trumps' policy.
2
"Death to Invaders" says North Korea. It's "the Ugly American" syndrome, the American imperialists that third world countries throughout Asia and Africa have scorned and feared for generations. Diplomacy and statesmanship are needed to defuse this volatile the president has created for himself and his country. But no matter. His base is pleased, that solid 38% of Americans who say that their president can do no wrong. He isn't feckless like his predecessor, and won't back down from any fight.
The problem is that Kim Jong-un didn't go around pricing caskets for the United States, it was the other way around. It would be refreshing if the president got tough with Vladimir Putin about the way the Bear pushes its neighbors around. It doesn't matter whether it's North Korea, Venezuela, Iran, or Mexico, the president's hatred for everything and everyone beyond America's shores is what fuels his presidency and his base. He has made America ugly again.
Trump has long presented himself as a stellar negotiator. This attempt to craft and define his own mythology may have worked for him in his business endeavors, at least to some extent. On the world stage, however, his saber rattling and ham-handed put downs of other world leaders smacks of ignorance, ego, a complete lack of nuance and an inflated misperception of his own judgment.
Perhaps, vis a vis North Korea and Kim Jong Un, the president sees a psychopathic soul mate who reflects Trump's own perverted sense of self, and relishes the opportunity to play the ultimate a zero-sum game Trump took comfort in during his business career. Unfortunately, for the rest of us, as it relates to North Korea, he's not merely risking his own fortune, but the fortunes and, not incidentally, the lives of millions of others.
Donald Trump may have relished the opportunities to virtually incinerate his nemeses in the business world, but in his current position, he risks incinerating the rest of us with his juvenile, schoolyard taunts of a leader who, like it or not, may be better at playing at "chicken," and even less able to control himself than Trump.
41
I view Kim Jong-un as a shrewd calculating dictator. He may only be in his 30's but has shown the world that he can back-up his bluster with his up and coming nuclear arsenal. He's got China tip toeing thru the tulips. Japan and South Korea flummoxed and half out of their minds.
But those three countries are staring at something even more dangerous. The U.S. with President Trump, the one individual in the free world who has demonstrated no restraint with his warmongering attack rhetoric, unlike any President before him. And he has his finger on the button of one of the largest nuclear weapons systems in the world.
WWIII will start like this. One of our bombers will get a little too close to NK, they'll shoot a missle. It will miss, but the propaganda machine of Trump will claim it was an unprovoked attack. One thing leads to another, conventional weapons will be exchanged, then China will get into the act, their sovereignty is threatened. Russia then feeds weapons to NK, they hate the U.S., and on and on it goes.
Meanwhile President Trump is hiding in that bunker at Greenbrier, WV.
The warning signs are obvious that a dangerous confrontation is drawing near. Senator Bob Corker is the latest official to sound the alarm.
If Congress takes their oath of office seriously, they'll use preemptive measures to contain an already out-of-control President. Seeing this situation unfold so casually is sickening.
2
Congress must immediately protect the world by requiring full consent for a U.S. nuclear strike. Even the most-balanced president cannot alone possess that Armageddon power.
3
Very linear thinking here. “... it was clear that President Trump’s threat to “totally destroy” North Korea had backfired...”
Maybe the threat wasn’t intended to scare North Korea and its leader, but rather to disturb other nations, comfortably complacent and willing to let NK trouble the U.S.
1
Trump has NO strategy on North Korea. He has only a big mouth and an even bigger ego - and THAT combination is a huge danger to our future. Any conflict with North Korea would include a great portion of Asia, and there would be no winner or loser - the casualties would far outnumber the survivors. For hundreds of years................
1
Trump is a bitter old man who has all of our lives in his little hands. It seems that his lust for power and wealth is stronger than his instinct to simply survive, and should he feel his grip on power is going to slip out of his hands, he will not hesitate to let all life on Earth perish at his word. It is, after all, the ultimate power, and his alone to exercise. Why should he care? His own expiration date is approaching.
2
The problem with your position is what you said on Morning Joe: you are willing to live with a North Korea that can hit the continental U.S. News flash North Korea is not the former Soviet Union. There was no fear of blackmail or endless talk of destroying the U.S. by the Soviets. Further, the precedent this would set would strengthen the President's position which you criticize the most (i.e. let everyone have nukes) because if North Korea can pose a threat why shouldn't Iran have the same right? Why wouldn't the North Koreans sell their nukes? Why wouldn't the North Koreans tell us to leave the Korean peninsula or they will attack both us and Seoul? With all due respect, your ignorant when it comes to negotiations and the importance of having actions that back up words or words are meaningless. I have been a trial attorney for 20 years and have an M.B.A. If I were the North Koreans and I knew the other side had people like you trying to negotiate I would get everything I want. We have tried peace at any costs numerous times. It is called appeasement and it has always made a bad situation worse. Yes, there maybe widespread loss of live in Seoul, but that is the cost of the prior administrations failure to stop the very actions the past Presidents told us would not occur. Further, look at Truman's failure to act on MacArthur's advice and you will understand how waiting without action has only increased the causalties.
I worry that if economic sanctions bite hard enough, the North Koreans will raise money by selling nuclear technology or bombs to the next Osama bin Laden.
As a child of the 50's who grew up hiding under my school desk waiting for those Commie Russians to drop the big one on me I believe it past time to settle the Korean conflict. Trump is only pouring gasoline on an already dangerous situation making it more likely to explode into the loss of millions of lives.
Push to sign a peace treaty between North and South Korea and allow open economic trade and borders to North Korea this will assure that even with Nukes North Korea will have more monetary incentives to behave and would defuse the current situation. I believe the South and North Korean people are ready to move on from past and reunite with their northern and southern brothers and sisters...
If Nixon could go to China and open that country up to the world and we can defused years of bad blood between Russia and the USA we can find it within our selves to defused years of hostility with North Korea.
1
"The second American misconception is that China can transform North Korean behavior."
What a false statement! China CAN force a change in North Korean behavior.
China could totally destroy North Korea's economy in one year without firing a single shot, just by withholding its trade. Do you think for one second China would have helped North Korea get both nuclear and ICBM technology -- which our intelligence service knows they have -- if China ever thought they did not have the power to prevent that weaponry from being used against them. Of course not. The Chinese are not stupid.
China has purposely helped North Korea get nuclear ICBMs because it knows how much trouble it can cause of America and its Asian allies, which it views as the major obstacles to their hundred year plan to dominate earth by roughly 2050 -- a plan they are currently on track to completing.
Wake up America. Stop being mislead by the politically-correct group think of the mainstream media. America has to stand up to China now, before it's too late.
1
Nick is correct that bellicose statements and high flying B-1 bombers feeds the paranoia in Pyongyang. Trump is incapable of working long and hard at finding a more plausible solution. He undermines anyone who might suggest - Tillerson - there may be an alternative. As Nick gleened from his very short trip to the DPRK, the psychosis of the north Korean people's belief in the infaluable leader is nearly universal. They will follow him into a nuclear holocaust. Will Trump supporters do the same?
It really boils down to one question: Which " Dear Leader " is the MOST deranged??? Thanks, GOP.
4
What keeps me up at night, or when I do sleep, gives me nightmares, is knowing Trump is mentally deranged and a clear and present danger to the entire world, and I believe it's too late to bring this to a safe end. Republicans have waited too long to act and if they move against Trump now, he'll rain hell fire and brimstone down on them, and take the rest of the country down in the process.
Republicans played a selfish and self-serving game putting their power and party before the good of the country. They pushed us over the cliff and now we're going down the slippery slope. Someone PLEASE tell me how this can possibly end well.
1
Sign the damned "peace" treaty with North Korea already. That would be a good start to begin acting sanely. Why didn't this happen decades ago??
2
I am in my 87th year. This is the very FIRST time that I feel that our country and our Constitution are threatened from WITHIN, not by some foreign foe! And THAT, my friends, scares the Hell out of me! Time to Wake Up, America!
4
Poor Kristof. How about some real consideration of the alternatives:
1. We do nothing. NK will have nuclear tipped ICBMs. We hope he won't use them, but he will threaten to if we defend South Korea or Japan from his aggression, which will almost surely follow.
2. We drop a bomb here and there to show Un we are serious. He replies with a full scale invasion of South Korea. We are stuck in a ground war in Korea.
3. We bomb the hell out of North Korea, suddenly and conventionally. A lot of people in Seoul and Pyongyang will die or be wounded. The NK government will be non-existent, and so will its nuclear threat. Who or what takes over?
4. We bomb the hell out of North Korea, suddenly and with nuclear weapons. Why would we do that when it has no advantage over 3, and many disadvantages?
Where is So Korea in the belligerent rhetoric of Trump against NK?
In case of a military confrontation, it is So Korea that will lose a million citizens, NOT the US.
It is an extremely callous position that the US is taking in its dealing with NK when it is So Korea that is on the chopping block.
It is So Korea, NOT the US that should take the lead in deciding how to handle this crisis....
2
Don't any or all of the Trump laws, ideas, proclamations, threats, promises still not qualify him for impeachment? Who do we go to to change the law?
China would have to agree to a unified Korea, but would they ever do that?
Trump painted himself in a corner with all of the talk about taking nuclear weapons from North Korea. That isn't likely to happen short of a war which presumably nobody wants.
That sounds simplistic but well sometimes life is that simple.
If anything peacefully resolves this situation then it is only going to be a collapse of the Kim regime. Let's hope that it is a relatively peaceful collapse like the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe which was almost without a single casualty with the exception of Romania.
To say Trump is out of his league here is perhaps a bit unfair as Trump really has been dealt a bad hand as we have been having this problem unsolved since 1994. But with that said, in some sense Trump is out of his league being a business leader that by definition to be successful requires one to be the final decision maker without a consensus versus an experienced politician who gets to success by consensus.
1
(I genuinely enjoyed the dolphin show, until it ended with wide-screen images of missiles.) What a perfect description of our world. Distractions abound, but eventually gritty reality commands our attention
1
We elected Trump having been warned over and over again that he could and would likely get us into an unnecessary war. If all you care about is "YOU" no one else matters. He is now plying as president, so why not try some war; that might get their attention. How long is the GOP going to let things go. Do they seriously not realize that he can start a war in minutes. This is on the GOP but the whole country and many others will suffer the outcome. Even warnings from well respected military personnel and very bright scientists are ignored by the GOP and of course by Trump. The real problem is that Trump has no reality base. He thinks WAR is just another reality show that will bring him accolades.
Mr. Kristof's comments essentially boil down to:
- War would kill a lot of people
- N Korea will not back down through anything short of war (according to a few N Koreans he spoke to), therefore
- President Trump should stop threatening N Korea, allow it to build a massive nuclear and ballistic missile arsenal, and hope deterrence works.
War would indeed be terrible, but it might be helpful to at least acknowledge the potential consequences of allowing N Korea to continue to build its arsenal: proliferation, blackmail of the US and its allies, and the likelihood of various other threats, small scale attacks, or nuclear tests anytime N Korea does not get what it wants. It might also be helpful to recognize that without at least the threat of war, we would not have achieved real sanctions and a reduction in Chinese trade with N Korea for the first time.
The US is often wrong about how others will perceive American actions. Does everyone remember, "We'll be greeted as liberators." I think it's also important to keep in mind that the US actually went there and killed more that a million people not that long ago. And there are people there who are still alive to remember that.
As citizens, there a few things we can do to de-escalate this situation. First, we can call our representatives in the House and Senate and communicate our fears, and our support for a congressional resolution against a first strike option without congressional oversight. Secondly, we can remind Mr. Trump and his family that in the event of an avoidable conflict stoked largely by his twitter feeds and combative behavior, that any bomb strike would if nothing else torpedo his businesses and his precious brand. There is no appetite for yet another war. Trump, Inc. would become a social and economic pariah in a way that would make past sanctions look like greasy kid stuff. Thirdly, it may not be a bad idea for the past three Presidents, Obama, Clinton, and George W. to take him out for an afternoon of golf and talk him off the roof.
56
Your last suggestion would be wise, but he's not, and I doubt he would heed good advice. The question is: does he want to go down in history as the president who destroyed America? I fear, as do many, that the answer to that may be yes, and from that, there's no return.
I think President Trump’s point is that if the North Koreans kill any more South Koreans. There is going to be a strong response.
This piece is naive and cowardly. No one thinks sanctions and negotiation will cause NK to give up their nukes. No serious person thinks China will exert pressure because obviously the NK situation works to their benefit. There is no evidence that anyone in a serious position holds your third "misconception" either.
So I think we can all agree on your premises. You conclusion that therefore we should therefore lie down and accept that a madman with nothing to lose that can destroy the Western world is cowardly and lacking in historical perspective. It is the passive 'let someone else deal with it' strategy followed by the Obama administration.
This is the correct analysis: NK poses an existential threat to the US that cannot be allowed to exist. 20 years of administrations have been cowards on this point, unwilling to take the hard and costly steps necessary to lance the boil. Sometimes in world affairs lots of people die, and Mr. Trump is correctly willing to accept the near-term cost of lives, if necessary, in the interest of long term peace and stability. The irony is that the more President Trump believes this and KJI believes Trump believes this, the less likely such an outcome is to occur. It is thinking like yours that makes a bad outcome more likely.
All President Trump needs is a trigger, his Pearl Harbor if you will, and with a little more goading and a few more insults Little Man may just give it to him.
1
The world's super powers are being run at this time by a bunch of men on steroids, each using the authoritarian father model to terrorize the people they rule over. DT is just trying to compete to see who is more macho. The rest of us are hostages either accepting our fate, hiding in apathy, or praying to God that there is divine intercession.
1
Amid all of Mr. Trump's foolish tirades and tweets, the threats to North Korea stand out as by far the worst. No sane person wants nuclear war; just the opposite, in fact.
Yet Mr. Trump believes that bluster and threats will make Pyongyang stand down. As this article shows, it won't. North Koreans believe the propaganda of their country. They are too fearful to stand down.
Meanwhile, the Blusterer-in-Chief has access to the nuclear codes. This is a very grave time for the world.
I keep waiting for Congress to act to remove this unfit man from the office of the presidency. How much longer will it take? How much more will be destroyed and threatened before they act?
1
Unfortunately, this president does not care what any rational human being suggests. In fact, like a three year old, if he is informed/educated on a topic, he behaves like a spoiled brat and does the opposite. He just doesn't care about our country, it's citizens, it's history or it's future. Much less, the constitution. How in the 'world' can we let this go on? Trump is a danger to our planet, in so many ways, and congress isn't lifting a finger to stop him. In this chaos there is calculation... but who's calculation?
1
The assumption here is that a series of insults, going back and forth between Trump and Kim, is enough to trigger war. Forget about realpolitik and moral-based foreign policy. Mr. Kristof adds stupid insults to the causes of war. In the past, it has taken the bombing of Pearl Harbor, the fear of communist domination, imminent genocide, the fear of weapons of mass destruction and the fear of terrorism to trigger American wars. But now, we are told if Trump insults Kim's mother, or vice versa, that will trigger a nuclear conflagration.
Experts believe that Kim's true target is South Korea, which conforms with every theory of war out there. Mr. Kristof's view violates every theory explaining international conflict. If we go to war based on insults, I guess the loser is the one who has to admit that the other's mother isn't ugly. Mr. Kritof's theory is out there, I'm sorry to say.
A surprising number of commentators seem to think Kim Jong-un is not a MADMAN. Recall the fate of his brother! his uncle! And his treatment of the
young college student who took one of the zillions of propaganda posters as a souvenir. (This does not mean that Trump is not an "alien president" as Bill Moyers described him, nor that it isn't moronic to bait a cruel dictator with
sarcastic tweets and bomber flights.)
1
"Strategy?" Bate and humiliate is not a strategy. Nasty children calling others nasty names is not a strategy - it's just nasty children, and they should never be left in charge of anything.
Trump is awful, but the strategy pursued by the last several administration has completely failed. Trump had nothing to do with the policies that allowed NK to get this far. Gullible, left wingers like Kristof have been consistently wrong about Trump. A different path may be required...
Trump is playing checkers with nukes.
Everybody else is playing chess.
I think we are all finished.
1
It is as much of a mistake to view a war with North Korea as highly unlikely as it was to view a Trump presidency as highly unlikely.
Trump is not a chess player - he does not see beyond the next move.
Looking a few moves out, peaceful solutions to the North Korea crisis become less likely as the pressure on Trump to succeed at something increase with his repeated failure at everything.
Trump will view a quick decisive war against North Korea as a vindication for his failing presidency, regardless of the casualties, as long as the casualties are on the Korean peninsula.
Invoking the 25th Amendment should be given real consideration in the near future.
4
I believe that the PEOPLE of North Korea are quite innocent.
For more than fifty years, they have been locked in the aftermath of an unfinished war, and ruled by a small cabal of people who are psychopaths. (And I use this term in its clinical, medical sense.)
Years ago, the world tried to "appease" North Korea, giving them intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads to put on top of those missiles. But, they never "confronted" North Korea's psychos as those psychos' actions grew worse and steadily worse.
Now, it literally faces those ICBMs being pointed =at= them ... and, fired. Not once, now, but several times.
This is not (just) the United States' problem: it is the World's problem. A group of psychopaths earnestly wants to kindle World War III, then to use the fires thereby started to toast their marshmallows. They simply don't have regard for the sanctity of human life, anywhere on the planet. They're ready to throw their own people under the bus and have more-or-less conditioned those people since birth to believe that one day they were all going to die in "glorious war."
This is not (just) the United States' problem: it is the World's problem. And I believe that it is The United Nations that can most-effectively stop them ... striving, all the while, NOT to give psychopaths the deadly outcome which they do perversely seem to crave.
North Korea wants World War III. Let the World show, in united solidarity and power, that "they cannot have it."
1
Aides to our so-called president have told reporters (I believe I read this in the NYTimes) that the surest way to get him to do something is to tell him that he can't do it. Clearly, all of the "petulant toddler" similes are dead on, so with everyone warning Trump to back off his incitement by insult likely just reinforces his delight in his harangues. That they could result in the death of millions would not bother this psychopath. "If we have nuclear weapons, why can't we use them?"
4
Did not Trump say at one point in the campaign something like "If we have nuclear weapons, why not use them?" This sticks in my memory, although I couldn't find it. I fear that he wants to be remembered as the one who perpetrated the nuclear holocaust (if there's anybody around to remember). After him, everything else will be moot.
2
North Korea's need for nuclear weapons to feel safe is just like American gun owners need to own guns. Why is that so hard for the Trump regime to understand—they, after all, support this position (more guns make you safer). It is also the position that the U.S. Congress actively supports (more guns, regardless of what nut wants to buy and use them). Crazy.
5
I am reminded of the ending scene of the movie, "The Bridge on the River Kwai. " Major Clipton, the British army Doctor, overlooks the carnage and utters "Madness...madness." Is this where we are headed?
1
Trump makes no assumptions. Assumptions are usually based on some actual thinking. This man thinks of nothing -- except how he can fortify his own image of power and authority. I imagine him in his White House bedroom, twitter finger twitching, giggling at the very notion that he has the entire world terrified that he will bring it all to destruction if he really, really wants to. Heh, heh. Now. That's power. He couldn't conceivably be happier.
2
Donald Trump, Mr. Kristof, doesn't have a "strategy" about North Korea--or anything else. He's a clown at a circus in search of an audience. He wants laughter and applause and approval, but he's not getting any. He's performing in a full arena with the spotlight all on himself. Everyone is quiet and tense. No calliope is hooting its sing-song childish nonsense. Popcorn sellers stand open-mouthed, gawking. No one's going to the bathroom.
He's picking a fight with North Korea just like he picked one with Mexico. He's jump-starting his base with jingoism and chest-beating. That doesn't work in high-level diplomacy and it leaves back-channels clogged, if not closed, because nuance, subtlety and delicate maneuverings are everything when countries are both friendly and hostile. Appearances are seldom everything; everything of substance is carried on behind closed doors.
So the American "president," who is almost certain to blow up the nuclear agreement that America and its fellow-signatories agreed to in 2015, is now threatening North Korea with fire, the likes of which the world has not seen.
We should be frightened, Mr. Kristof, for we have a mere child, a boy king, as "president." What's needed is a regency of respected patriots who can usher us through the next three years without our leaving a smoking trail in the void. Some intelligence out there might remark that "it used to be something but now it's nothing."
That's what happens when you're stupid. And Donald Trump is.
1
Kim's nukes re a bargaining chip to negotiate an official end to the Korean War and win official, international recognition of the Kim regime's legitimacy. Kim Jong Un is not stupid enough to think he can defeat the US, but with a nuclear tipped ICBM he has a chip that requires attention when it come to talks. How long before Trump realizes that the threats don't help. Serious talks might.
4
Jimmy Carter could fix it! He fixed it last time, didn't he?
When many people voted for Trump "businessman," it was (apparently) about risk-taking.
Imho, our POTUS thrives-on risk, he gambles and don't we all to extent.
This is my subjective perception including from the "headline" of your column today.
I shall now read your actual opinion today, because such is my perhaps moronic "fun."
1
I can't feel optimistic, so
the worst case scenario's redeeming values
the ends of:
puking pharma ads
absurd small print disclaims/ asterisks
credit card balances
fear of being hacked
lies, deceptions, hypocrisies
true disclosures about ufo's
Kardashian publicity
terrific comments like mine
Trump's taunting of Kim Jong-un so to start a war, to give himself undeserved glory and relevance, is highly irresponsible. It is one insult after another, untold lies, unscrupulous dictates, all to create distraction from his utter incompetence and misrule. We are living an institutionalized violence where a power-crazed barbarian is intent in destroying the last vestiges of civility. What is going on with his enablers, reluctant to stop this brutus ignoramus, restore sanity to this suffering democracy? History may be harsh in judging their complicity with a vulgar bully intent in subverting 'law and order', and installing a white supremacist cadre of misfits to do his bidding. A free press to counter Trump's idiocy, however challenged, is critical for societal survival, for sanity based on facts to triumph over the malicious nonsense spewed by a runaway charlatan in our midst.
Tell me Richard, exactly what are trumps qualifications
as a statesman, his background in diplomacy and history? Can he find North Korea on a map?
We have a deluded dangerous sociopath occupying the oval
office who has spent a lifetime abusing people:
His wives, children, clients, everyone in his realm and who thinks of himself as " tough".
Lobbing nuclear weapons is not a solution to anything.
He could end life : yours, mind , millions in the Far East.
I would not be so blasé .
He needs to be removed from office asap or we all go down.
I don't sleep at night,
1
Carla, are you talking to me? If not, my apology for such a presumption. However, If So please reread my comments and research the National Academy Of Sciences study that I mentioned. Then, if it me you're referring to, try Jonathan Swift's A Modest Proposal.
I have come to realization that Trump just wants to let off a nuke. He wants to be the one to lite the fuse on the biggest firecracker. He wants to goad NK into going too far and use that as the reasoning. He doesn't care about the reason he just wants to make a bang and his ego demands it be the biggest bang the world has seen.
I am planning to incorporate a bomb shelter into my home renovations.
Anyone who reads history will soon realize that leading up to and during a war, all the parties misread, misunderstood, and miscalculated their opponent. No less will happen here. On top of that, today Trump will announce he is "decertifying," the deal with Iran. The N.Koreans will characterize it as us not keeping our end of a deal and tell the world the U.S. is the one that can't be trusted. The Koreans won't even consider negotiating and Trump will ramp up the rhetoric, push for more sanctions, provoke with nearby military flybys and then what? One aircraft shot down, one mistake is all it will take. He will say its all their fault, we have to retaliate. His base will love him more and then, it will all go wrong just as every war does.
84
"Strategy" implies some kind of thought and planning. Trump has none of that so rewrite the headline!
Thank you for this useful list of misconceptions.
I really think it is about time, that some other external power steps in and act as a catalyst for peace and development on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea will (and cannot) do it alone and on their own initiative. The US will certainly not do it and South Korea seems to have no voice of their own in this conflict whatsoever.
Yes, China does appear to be more on the fringe of things, but are there any other power in world that has better options to act as peace-dealers. Everybody wants this conflict to end (don't you think?) and preferably North and South to reconcile and unite as Korea once again under some kind of mutual agreement. The Korean conflict is the last monument to the WW II divisions and Cold War blocs. Let's end this, shall we?
2
As usual, I agree with Mr Kristof's opinions almost completely. What I find disheartening is a tactic send in most media where numbers and percentages are used to make a point, but the second and usually most important number is left out. If North Korea's GDP had increased by 39% it still would be less than the US modest increase as a percent of GDP. Figures lie, and Nick should not figure this way.
1
Your accusation is not reasonable in this particular issue, but I do agree somewhat with you main point, generally speaking.
Percentages is much better at measuring economies than crude numbers. For many, many reasons. It is down to basic economics really.
In the immediate aftermath of world war two the United States had a monopoly on nuclear weapons. Soon enough the Soviet Union and later China and others joined the club. The weapons eventually got so powerful that you can;t really used them, especially on enemies who have theirs and can then retaliate in kind. The strategy in possessing the weapons is that while you can;t use them nevertheless having them protects you from being attacked or dictated to by others. Recent history, the regime changes for Saddam Hussein and Qadaffi seem to have borne this out. The idea behind the negotiations with Iran may not have been really so much to forever prevent Iran from acquiring its own nuclear arsenal but to delay it for 10-15 years and modulate its outlaw status , its relative isolation on the world scene, at least diplomatically so that someday it would have the bomb but be good company like Russia and China. Something like this might also have been what was wanted for N.K. which is an even more isolated outlaw type of state. President Trump's remarks seem to indicate that he and others now in power lack faith in that long game or strategy and believe it is too dangerous to allow either Iran or NK to ever acquire and accumulate nuclear weapons. But Iran and certainly NK may already have calculated that it is too dangerous for them not to acquire nuclear weapons. So a dangerous atmosphere of distrust hangs over the world and replaces diplomacy.
10
Thanks Nicholas. Very enlightening. My question is what do we do with this information? I want to take action, but the best it seems like I can do is make telephone calls (I live in SF so my leaders are already against the current GOP). I can donate and I do, but don't know where the best place is to do that. I don't know what else to do. Please advise.
6
TAM, l went through similar think where l cam from, Turkey 1955 one person can not do any think first GOP has to see that this man is crazy than we the people stop every think, do not print news paper no tv, nobody goes to work than the country will stop too than people goes after the problem here it is TRUMP and his followers and one more think our arm forces should tell him that because he not playing with a full deck he is not the leader
Keep your money. Either California secedes or the military takes over the federal government and re-establishes sanity. Neither is permissible under the Constitution, but anyone who is looking for a conventional, Constitutional solution to this untamed animal is deluding himself. Trump’s malevolent takeover of the country is essentially complete. Americans just haven’t realized it yet.
Does Trump really have a strategy, other than playing to his shrinking, low-information base?
34
Astrochimp - do you have a strategy other than turning the other cheek for the milionth time in a row? winter is coming and there is no diplomatic way out of this with a dictator who cares not for anyone else but his own survival... don't you get it?
No. No he does not.
Even scarier is that his base is solid.
Even if he stumbles into a war that kills millions his base will love him.
He is a cult of the personality leader and his base idolizes him.
Regardless of the inhumanity and hatred.
Or maybe because of it?
The (scary) question about Donald Trump's off the cuff foreign policy actions, particularly towards NK is the following:
IF all the checks and balances in the US constitution cannot protect Americans from Donald Trump's unscrupulous actions, what to expect in foreign relations? An area of policy controlled by the Commander in Chief?
The fall of Trump could happen in foreign policy with a US-provoked war getting out control. North Korea and Iran are a good bet. The Republican-dominated Congress will find the legal basis for an impeachment.
1
There is only two end points here; War and replacement of the North Korean government (most likely with unification, subject to China's acquiescence) or a Nuclear armed North Korea.
NK has been working towards nuclear weapons since President Carter's administration and greatly increased its ability with the various deals we made during Clinton and Bush administrations. Each time he took the carrot but failed his obligations and no stick every fell.
Worse still is the NK governments willingness to sell (along with Pakistan) military equipment and knowledge to Iran, Iraq Hamas and other "terrorist" organizations for hard currency. Once they perfect their research and can create limitless nuclear warheads and delivery means; do we really think they wouldn't put them on the Market also.
Conclusion: Do we want a limited possibly nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula now or do we believe in Mutually assured destruction will keep the religious fanatics from trying to bring on Armageddon and actually start WWIII. I don't think a nuclear armed NK is an existential threat to the US or even its neighbors. GIven their willingness to sell to the middle east, all bets are off.
3
Trump's "entire strategy" is looking like an authentic truth telling tough guy who talks big and isn't afraid of Rocket Man to the cheers of the mobs at his Adoration Rallies. While at the same time, he blames the escalating tensions on anybody but himself.
13
Escalating tensions are a 2 way street. Why do you keep piling on Trump all the time instead of saying "maybe its time to get rid of rocket boy.." just a thought. You must have given away a lot of your lunch money in high school..
How does our 25th amendment work? Who initiates this process and can it be started before the end of the year?
4
The 25th amendment allows the Vice president and a majority of the cabinet to remove the President due to disability.
although with Pence as Vice-President, not likely. A better scenario is congressional legislation to make it illegal/impeachable for the President to make a first strike without Congressional Approval. That takes the tiny hair trigger fingers off the nuclear button.
Although we can assume that Trump, himself, will not read this column, he may get wind of it from someone in his administration--and, you can be sure, he will be delighted (and emboldened) by the fact that his actions are frightening liberals. Is there anything Trump's base loves more than riling up the liberals? We know how Trump loves to fire up his base. Until the Republican Establishment opens up more about its own concerns (Thank you, Mr. Corker), Trump will continue tweeting us ever closer to war.
8
I'm still not sold on the idea that Donald Trump is even capable of having a strategy, let alone one on North Korea. He's always come across as a 'Shoot-first-ask-questions-later' kind of a guy.
Unfortunately, he's met his match for threats and bombast in Kim Jong-un, and while they both continue to exchange heated remarks the clock continues to tick toward a nuclear fallout.
And that is the reality.
Be very afraid.
11
your concern that we're complacent in our regard for this disturbing exchanges of threats is right.
you mention this in the preamble to the column but you do not go into its history, which begins before trump and, in effect, set the stage for anyone, clumsy or slick, who inherits the monster, grown in the shade of said complacency, and has to do something about it.
over the years, that complacency, has also eroded our appetite for heavy lifting of any sort, once known as "can do" and, at the same time, fed our addiction to convenience and self-interest...and while one still trust our armed forces it is hard to imagine today's civilian population standing up to the demands of anything more trying than a sale a local mall.
2
Ken Burns' Vietnam series reminds us that "miscalculation" and "misconception" has been a defining feature of US foreign/war policy since WW II. Quagmire and "collateral damage" are now permanent parts of our vocabulary for a reason.
With his access to nuclear codes, Trump's frequent deployment of the phrase "nobody knew" and "people don't realize" for things any educated person knows and realizes (e.g., healthcare and Civil War) is a chilling reminder that the fragile ego-in-chief could, in a moment of macho, pique or curiosity, have millions of people vaporized -- as if nobody knew what could happen if he "punched back" with more than a Tweet.
7
I agree this is how war happens. However, I am uncomfortable about this series of articles. There is the presumption the government officials Mr. Kristof had access to could ever possibly speak with any kind of candor -- with even a shred of truth -- not representing the party rhetoric (without being exiled/killed). It is difficult to get a true grasp of what is reality and what is simply policy. It doesn't negate what Mr. Kristof is reporting, but how can one draw any real conclusions?
2
I was wondering the same thing. How can anyone know what North Korean officials truly believe when they all know their true beliefs, if discovered, can get them executed?
There is a long history of U.S.-North Korea relations, emanating pointedly from the extensive bombing and devastation of North Korea during Korean War. There is also an established body of foreign policy theory that addresses interactions with authoritarian regimes, with the long-term objective of inducing the gradual changes needed to bring those regimes into the global community. The Trump administration appears utterly ignorant of both, and is embarking instead upon a myopic tactic calculated solely to energize Trump's political base. The consequences could spell disaster for the region, the U.S., and the world. Our most urgent objective should be to put the grownups back in charge of U.S. foreign policy.
5
The Times did a profile of Stephen Miller, who sounds like he's still an angry high school kid out to prove the people who laughed at him are wrong, even if that means cheating to make his "point." He was apparently the one who wrote Trump's angry, threatening speech for the U.N.
It's clear with Trump's angry, immature behavior, with a simplistic understanding of global arrangements, why this kid would appeal to Trump.
This is a dangerous combination. And it doesn't help that many Trump supporters seem to be cheering them on with little concern over the consequences of war, perhaps nuclear war.
9
Dear Michael. You speak of war as if it were the US who was instigating the process with reckless behavior. Need I remind you that it is NK that has been doing the instigating for 25 years... do you have another solution than war?
when do you think we need to change register? I'm not a war monger but at the end of the day you can't keep looking away and hope he goes away. Nuclear war worked against Japan after Pearl Harbor... it may be our only option.
The only significant "misconception" was when W. allowed North Korea to remove the plutonium fuel rods from the reactor at Yongbyon in 2003. Instead of realizing that war was inevitable, the belief was that if you ignored the problem long enough, it would go away.
1
So Nick, what's the answer. You critique, saying what Trump is attempting won't work, but you don't offer a solution. The reality? Kim will continue to build his arsenal of warheads and missiles. He doesn't have to achieve parity with us in nuclear capability. All he has to do is be able to hit us and/or our allies hard enough to create an unacceptable level of destruction. Once he can do that and credibly assert that his nukes can still strike even if we hit N Korea first we are toast.
Dalliance and incompetence from previous administrations have allowed this to happen (as will happen with Iran). A 20 year time horizon is nothing to Kim. He's young and unless we stop him in 2 decades who knows what kind of capability he may have.
And I wouldn't throw China out as a factor. China may be conflicted about N Korea, as they were in the Korean war, but a nuclear armed N Korea may also threaten them.
In short, doing nothing is setting us up for a future disaster at the very least and the strong likelihood that we will be coerced into abandoning S Korea which of course, with a nuclear armed North would either be re-integrated into a unified Korea or become a vassal state.
Now, I don't want to go to war against N Korea. But. The long term alternative is unacceptable. Without the threat of possible military action -- this is true for every nation state -- we have no credibility at the bargaining table.
And did you see anyone digging blast proof shelters?
1
The only thing that is certain about Mr. Trump is that his ego is extremely important to him; it is his "precious," and he will go to any length, entertain any insult or threat or action to protect it. Do we want to be bound by this narcissism all the way to the point of war? To the world, he is "official America;" do we want to be identified that way? Are we cowboys challenging the riffraff to a bar fight? Is that what some few mean when they say that he has in his bluster a North Korea strategy whereas the last dozen Presidents have had none? What is it going to take to convince Trump's apologists and especially Congress that what President Trump is preserving and protecting and defending is his own hubris and not the best interests of the United States?
9
Jerry.. you are right about Kim being riff raff. You are wrong in thinking Trump supporters such as myself think he's not a narcissist (even though I am not an expert in mental health). However he is not wrong in making a stand - we went to war against Hitler and now we will have to do the same in NK. Winter is coming Jerry... go home and get your sword. oh wait.. you're not a warrior. Go home and hide.
come back from paris and be the first in line to fight.
Reagan's military build up appeared to have "backfired," (as it caused an arms race with the Soviet Union), all the way up to the point when the Soviet Union collapsed. Funny that Kristof saw signs of the sanctions working, saw signs that Kim is devoting an awful lot of energy to flexing military might in a country that can't feed itself, and Kristof is still totally blind to the strategy. Sad actually.
Thankfully, we no longer have scared liberals running the foreign policy. Everything is not as it appears.
3
North Korea is not the Soviet Union.
Right wing insults regarding liberal disinterest in warmongering only demonstrate the folly of neocon bluster and belligerence.
Here Trump was supposed to disengage the US war machine, not rattle its sabers. Ah well, it's just one more empty promise broken by a man whose ignorance of foreign policy and incompetence in performing his duties as president seemingly know no bounds.
1
This idea that Ronald Reagan's "tough stance" led to the collapse of the Soviet Union is so bogus! The Soviet Union collapsed in large part due to its own quagmire war in Afghanistan, draining it of money, young men and morale. Do you know in Germany when they tell the history of the Berlin Wall, its construction and fall, they mention JFK. They don't even mention Ronald Reagan. It is this kind of ignorant jingoism that leads to debacles such as the wars in Vietnam and Iraq. Just stop already.
1
There is NO strategy in regards to NK. There is only ridiculous bluster.
If there was any strategy at all, then it would include China. ( and the press pointing that out at every instance ) China supplies the regime without approximately 90-95% of everything they need to even just survive. They could bring enormous pressure to bear and ultimately influence ending proliferation of nuclear arms and general hostilities in a nanosecond.
That of course, would mean that we need to put pressure on China.
Start by buying local, instead of at the big box store.
4
Proof again. North Korean policy is far more "rational" than US foreign policy. And when President Trump and the Republicans impair CHIP, MediCaid and ACA our dying children will be more numerous than theirs.
2
Paradocs, Your remarks imply our children are surviving because of government funded hand-outs, none of which our heavily indebted nation can afford without evermore debt or deep spending cuts or both.
The alternative is unshackling the risk-takers. They are the job-makers and wealth-creators. This is the rational policy we should be pursuing; not fawning over NK's sabre-rattling. They are like a mean snake in a box. The more Trump shakes it; the more deadly it becomes.
What concerns me the most is that president Trump's persistently deranged behavior has become normalized. In any other presidential epoch, any one of Trump's utterances or tweets would have set off all the alarm bells all over the country.
Like his lies, the president's morbid intemperance is so unrelenting that we are tempted to yawn and mutter "There he goes again," forgetting the massive lethality of his psychotic derangement. One million dead on Day One of a renewed Korean war would soon escalate to the tens of millions.
Most of the talk so far focuses on the consequences of a binary US-Korean conflict. If we believe for a second that China and Russia would remain on the sidelines we are living in a blinkered fantasy world.
12
Trump's "scary" strategy is working. He has managed to unify the world against North Korea in a way never before seen. China, N. Korea's strongest ally is no longer backing N. Korea. So if war does break out now there is less risk China would get involved on N. Korea's behalf.
Let me tell you what is scary. The world and especially our enemies see that if they develop nuclear weapons they are safe and can behave however they want. And by the way the more enemies who have them the more emboldened they will become. Trump needs to send a message to the world that if you develop nuclear weapons you put yourself in a very dangerous situation, especially if you threaten US.
3
Trump will choose whatever option he thinks will make him look good, and the same for Kim. Nothing else matters to these two peas.
5
It confounds why any rational and loving person on earth would want to do harm to anyone else. For what? To kill another? For what? It is time that the rationality of messages of total peace among all humanity be spread. Humanity needs to grow out of its primitive and wild animal predatory like mentality. We are so cruel and so senseless. There is enough on earth to go around for everyone, if we only cooperated and started caring for one another.
1
Not sure if you can call what's going on with Trump and North Korea a "strategy".
But hey, it was nice while this planet lasted...
North Korea seems like a bunch of total drama queens, but they've been pretty dead on about Trump and they are literally just saying "we have missiles that can reach you, if you keep threatening we will strike back", albeit in a rather ... inflammatory manner.
Yet it is hard to disagree with NK on this. Trump really has it coming. I do wish though, that the two of them could go fight it out without the rest of the world being dragged into it. But I guess that's the responsibility that comes with electing a leader.
Well, the North Koreans didn't really get a choice.
America doesn't have an excuse, even though quite a few Americans pretend that a Trump presidency was the fault of the Russians, sexism, racism, Bernie Bros, misogyny, Jill Stein, Facebook etc. etc.
2
Mr. Kristof, you refer the danger that comes when we "...operate on wishful thinking instead of reality..." but I think there is a little of that in your column today. Almost everything you say in it makes sense and is terrifyingly real. The only thing that is not real is when you refer to "...Tump's strategy..."
Only adults who think can have a strategy. Trump doesn't have a strategy; he only has impulses that come out of his desperate narcissistic neediness. Sad to say, it is wishful thinking to even elevate him to the level of being able to have a strategy. As Bill Moyers said recently, "he doesn't have a soul, he has an open sore." He is a malformed human and responds like a petulant child to everything around him because he lives full time in his anxious fantasies about not looking strong. No strategy there.
2
I would welcome Donald Trump accompanying one of his "Apprentice" alumnus, Dennis Rodman, on a visit to North Korea. The man who "is" the world's greatest negotiator, artist of the deal, has a great brain, knows the best words, should meet with Kim in person. After all, no one on earth is better than Trump. In ego competition.
What would be the outcome?
A) Kim imprisons Trump after addressing him as Little Rocket Man
B) Trump invites Kim to form a club he has been dreaming of, "The Triumvirate of Tyrants" to include, Putin, Noriega, Duterte, Kim, bin Laden, al-Assad and himself (someone will later explain to Trump that Noriega and bin Laden are no longer available, and a triumvirate is composed of three)
C) Kim is persuaded by Trump's masterly negotiation skills to give up his nuclear weapons, turn North Korea into a democracy, step down from power and become a greeter at Walmart
D) Rodman returns to report that Trump was so enamored with Kim's display of despotic power, he has decided to stay in North Korea
E) We awake from our dream to hear the sirens going off
2
Carl von Clausewitz wrote 'On War' at the beginning of the 19th century. He stated that war was politics by other means. What he meant was that war needed a clear political motivation and was just another vehicle for achieving the goal. An extension of that suggests the political goal must be both achievable and worth the cost of war. We ignored that it Vietnam and again in Iraq. Trump seems determined to ignore it again with North Korea.
1
In a popular little book, "The Godfather Doctrine," the authors use the three Corelone brothers as a metaphor for how foreign policy is conducted. One is traditional, often mechanistic, diplomacy (Tom). another other is might-is-right force (Sonny) and the third is realism, a hybrid (Michael). Only Michael wins. Trump's 100% Sonny and know only force. It's a fatal flaw that will doom him and, possibly, many of us. Nick, thanks for saying that in your own superb column.
9
Yes Mr Kristof, Mr Kim and Mr Trump seem to be engaged in a contest to prove which of them is more detached from reality. Yet the result of this battle could prove to be very real for Pyongyang, Seoul - and perhaps Tokyo, or elsewhere.
Before the UN Mr Trump said Mr Kim is "on a suicide mission". I don't think he is, but Mr Trump should really hope he isn't and not push him towards that undertaking.
7
Revealing and perceptive article. The Senate and the House MUST show some stamina and intelligence and remove this man from office. OR, they ( and, all of us ) will face the end of the world as we know it. Surely for the sake of our nation and the world, these two bodies will act with speed and intelligence.
12
Nick, thank you for your voice of sanity. I aim to call my representative and senators every day, to tell them that I feel unsafe in this country with Trump as president and ask them to voice any concerns they have out loud.
25
Doesn't this come down to two things - first, whether NK, in the form of Kim, is so irrational as to strike first, knowing that doing so is tantamount to national suicide. Though his thinking is foreign to most Americans, Kim has demonstrated only rationality, at least from his perspective. He sees Libya, Iraq, and now Iran, and recognizes the value of his nuclear capability to his survival. Secondly, the US is now in the hands of one who has repeatedly and consistently demonstrated his irrationality, clearly believing that to be his competitive edge. Rational from the US perspective would be to work to tighten sanctions while seeking dialog, and especially with no saber rattling in the process. It's a dangerous game of chicken, with the highest of stakes, between one player who is rational and the other anything but. Frightening doesn't begin to describe it.
32
Many good points, particularly the last one. However there is one thing Trump can't be entirely blamed for here: "Officials in North Korea repeatedly cited Trump’s threats to justify their military mobilization and their reluctance to engage in dialogue or conciliation."
The North Koreans were not open to dialogue long before Trump came on the scene, and they have been mobilizing for decades. I personally am more concerned that Trump pulls the first trigger than NK. They are playing their usual, very dangerous game. We are not sure what Trump is doing.
26
Rick: "We are not sure what Trump is doing" - however, we are very sure he is dangerously and publicly Tweeting insults and fanning the rage and nationalism in North Korea.
I believe we are currently closer to nuclear war than at any time since the Cuban missile crisis. This is the result of having a man with narcissistic personality disorder in control of US foreign policy and the US military. Trump does not appreciate just how catastrophic millions of deaths in North and South Korea would be, partly because those who die would be mainly foreigners, and partly because they would not be him. Congress should immediately pass a bill that makes it impossible for the president to launch nuclear weapons purely on his own authority. This is one more situation where Republicans in Congress should stop put party political interests aside and do what is right for the country--and for the world.
89
Asking a politician to 'put party political interests aside' is a bit of a stretch, don't you think?
I would like to point out the the Fire Bombing of Tokyo did more damage to like and property than both Atomic bombs dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima. Yes a Nuclear weapon today would devastate a square mile or two and leave entire areas uninhabitable for decades but if we want destruction a few 50K bunker buster bombs and incendiary bombs are more than capable of getting the job done.
As for the proposed law, I agree. I don't see any situation where a sudden nuclear first strike would be needed. Nuclear should be reserved for after the war is started and in response to a nuclear attack or the shock and awe feature. The Japanese were willing to fight to the death even when Tokyo was up in flames. When people were reduced to outlines of shadows on the side of buildings their spirit was broken.
Rescinding the War Powers act or strengthening it to force the President to withdraw troops or get a declaration of war from Congress after dealing with the immediate crisis is over sounds good but look to Bush and Iraq. Even when he went to Congress, they all had to stand by the troops that were in theater and even Hillary herself felt obligated to vote for the authorization of force. Easier to say on paper you must come to congress than to have congress withhold consent and force the immediate withdrawal of troops.
You all seem to forget the affects of a limited nuclear exchange on the ENTIRE planet. For an analysis see the National Acadamy's research on a the affects of a very limited exchange between India and Pakistan.
Are the Trump hotels N.B.C. sealed? Maybe this his his plan to reduce the number of poor on the planet, sort of a Nuclear Modest Proposal?
The answer, it seems to me, plays out in each American election cycle. Republicans find reasons to spend all our tax dollars on the war machine. Democrats find reasons to spend all our tax dollars on domestic programs. Then, when the poor are always with us, Democrats are seen as throwing good money after bad. Why doesn't the same argument hold water when wars are always with us?
50
Not that it's a logical situation, but the argument doesn't hold water because 'wars' are about both the means and the ends, and the means equals vast enrichment for millions of people, creating, building, selling, implementing the tools of war and of preparation for war.
With Republicans it's "all war all the time isolationism" (on steroids with Trump), and recovery under a Democratic president, that the south always hates (on steroids with Obama).
The U.S. has made several crucial foreign policy blunders, seemingly unrelated to North Korea, that have exacerbated the problem. The disastrous Iraq invasion demonstrated that WMD's were necessary to keep the U.S. military at bay. Remember Bush's infamous "axis of evil" included Iran, Iraq and North Korea -- nations that shared nothing except being targets of US scorn. Saddam gave up his WMDs and, though most Americans conveniently forget, was complying with UN inspectors when the US decided to invade. We showed the world that disarmament was a sure path to destruction.
Kim believes -- with good reason -- that he needs nukes to deter military action. And, contrary to many claims, North Korea has shown little inclination to engage in any offensive activities. Their primary goal is survival, not conquest. (Trump, on the other hand, has shown every indication of intending to launch an offensive attack on North Korea.)
What has the world come to when I place more faith in the dictator of North Korea to behave rationally than the US president? The only situations in which Kim actually uses his nuclear weapons are if he perceives that a US attack is imminent, or if the brinksmanship between him and Trump paints him into a corner where Kim loses his honor if he doesn't act. Trump seems intent on recklessly creating both situations.
We are in a very dangerous situation now where a lunatic and a dictator are engaging in oneupsmanship that could very well kill millions.
89
You are absolutely right, thank you. Blinded by our perennial self-righteousness, we keep pushing until the other side eventually snaps.
And amidst the ruins caused by a "misunderstanding" we will still find a way to blame "them".
We have a 3 year old with nuclear weapons at his disposal. We have only ourselves to blame and we are the only ones that can change that.
64
um....
which one (or both) is the 3yr old?
And the 3 yr. old is?
What, then, is your strategy Mr. Kristof? I assume it is the same strategy you enunciated years ago relative to Iran, i.e. let them have nuclear weapons. This "peace in our time" approach will simply make conflict more destructive in the future.
5
No one has ever proposed a viable solution to the NK problem. This does not mean that all approaches are equivalent. Kristof is pointing out that Trump’s approach seems about the worse possible as it is based on wishful thinking and may lead to a war Trump himself may not want.
With respect to Iran, we can thank Obama for an agreement that at the very least pushed Iran's acquisition of nukes out by 15 years, giving the world an opportunity to reach a more permanent solution to that problem. Of course, Trump is actively working to fritter that away, with his destabilizing and unjustified talk about decertification.
That, of course, is par for Trump's course. He's shown himself, and America, to be an unreliable and unpredictable ally. Whatever strategy we follow must be a global response, including Asian partners along with China and Russia. Trump has, however, demonstrated disdain for multilateral agreements, so that seems to be too much to hope for. Yet without them, there's nothing.
There is not a good answer. There hasn't been since China demonstrated in 1950 that they would not allow the North Korean regime to fall. Your comment assumes that military conflict is inevitable; a view which Trump no doubt shares. But it need not be. American strategy, whatever it turns out to be, will not stop a determined nation from obtaining nukes. But there's no reason to think the DPRK will use those nukes in a first strike, any more than any other nation has, since 1945.
The right -- the only reasonable -- strategy is to engage with Kim, demonstrate that his regime is not threatened, and ratchet down Trump's rhetoric, the only result of which will be war. A needless Trumpian war of choice. A war that could literally spell the end of America as we know it.
There is no reason behind either man's rhetorical assault which is the most frightening aspect of this schoolyard scrap.
While both undoubtedly reflect the temperament of a sizable portion of their citizenry, perhaps even a majority, personal bluster, rather than considered thought, is dragging both nations into a situation where saving individual face from further criticism may become the match which starts the unimaginable conflagration noted in the last sentence of this article.
Family arguments are often ongoing for years and some are never resolved until one of the embattled passes on to the Elysian Field which may be the trajectory of these verbal missiles.
What is needed is a conversation between our two nations which is devoid the fictions of political and philosophical consideration.
We as a people are always asked to wrap ourselves in or embrace, as Mr Trump has literally done, the flag of our nation and to echo the words of our Bible which is totally foreign to most people living in the Asian Continent.
Rather than educating Mr Trump is dumbing down our nation with his vindictive and clearly racist assaults on reason.
While we still live in a Democracy and these words can still be published, it is time for Mr Trump to be removed from office.
9
It's true that all prior attempts to seek an accord with NK have failed, but pouring gasoline on a fire does not seem the logical alternative.
US policy changes with every election. If we're lucky enough to elect a gov that hires a Sec of State whose competent, whose capable of achieving dialogue, they are swept out of office when the next regime is elected.
Sadly, no competence test is prescribed before emotionally unbalanced narcissists like Trump are offered as candidates. Even worse, our despicable lack of campaign finance restraints permits the deep pockets to literally control the elections.
America is like the Titanic, a huge ocean liner that could not correct its course in time because of a tiny rudder. Our Achilles Heel is campaign finance and an obsolete system of management known as "congress" that has failed to adapt over time. What may have worked in 1776 has no relevance in 2017. NK is only one (huge) problem among many others.
I predict the experiment will end soon.
14
The biggest problem is Trump, and the incompetence and hubris of his "administration". Until that situation is resolved, all the other problems will only worsen. In 2018 we have a chance to correct the problem and throw the bums out (and into prison preferably). Unfortunately, that looks like it will probably be too late. Thanks Republican Party! Time for the handlers to invoke the 25th Amendment.
One of the mistakes we make is assuming that we are reasonable, but our enemies, including the North Koreans are not. That is what chills my blood when I hear people say that nothing else has worked so why not let Trump give his strategy a try?
How many US soldiers died in Vietnam because of hubris and a lack of understanding of the North Vietnamese. It was nationalism more than dominoes that was the the driving force and, concurrently with fighting in Vietnam, we saw the unity of international Communism shatter.
It's quite plain that we have no effective tools to prevent nations from acquiring nuclear weapons. Treaties like the one with Iran are more likely to delay the inevitable than prevent it. What we need to do is seek ways to make hostilities less probable.
That's harder than puffing up and threatening. There has to be good information about underlying causes and clear thinking that doesn't get tied up in chauvinism or fear. That's very hard to accomplish and it's even harder to build public support for policies that will eventually make us safer.
37
This a consequence of electing a reality TV personality to be the president of the United States.
North Korea is the most intractable issue facing the world today, and our guy is so far out of his depth it's laughable.
We need a coordinated effort from the US, China, South Korea and Russia to resolve the crisis and work towards a long term solution. Trump would rather tweet about football players.
62
Hard to see how this will not end badly.
Feels like those of us alive now are living in the time of “when things fall apart”. A difference from past times being that the very ecological infrastructure that supports life is at risk now too.
Which of us can imagine a brighter future, with a viable path forward. I need to hear those voices.... To much talk of war....don’t we all know by now how that will end?
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Why is the US occupying any part of Korea? No other foreign power has forces stationed in North or Sout Korea. Before the Korean War why did US choose to partition the country along with Russia? It did not commit aggression in World War II. This is what happens when a foreign power involves itself in a civil war and cannot find an exit plan .
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"Yet solar panels are becoming more common, and Kim has moved to liberalize the economy in ways that generate growth despite sanctions. Collective farms are allowing greater use of private plots, factory managers enjoy more responsibility to turn profits and street markets are more tolerated than before."
...Did you interview the Un-hipster at his Portland community eco-farm?
In related news, President Xi's firings of generals who have recently "disappeared" (as NY Times reports) seem like his A-Team for administration of North Korea is in place. The old guys would likely know the old affairs and the practical dimensions better.
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A thoughtful, well written essay that is terrifying.
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You gotta be kiddin. This article was as useless as talks with NK over the past 25 years. The author suggests that someone in any government thinks NK will give up its nuclear program, they will not. Not ever. In fact they will continue to ignore UN advice and work to develop enough ICBMs to eventually hit a few cities in the U.S. and then they will march into South Korea and dare America to stop them. How do I know this, well, they've been saying it for a quarter-century.
When Hitler marched his army into France, the French surrendered. Surrender is better than death they figured.
NK knows if they can build a big enough death machine, they can take what they want, what they believe should be theirs.
The article reads like the author was born this year and has no sense of history with NK. The bottom line is NK offers three options:
A- Fight now and risk killing millions of civilians.
b- Allow NK to further develop its nuclear arsenal and then give them what they want-South Korea- and hope they don't ask for anything else.
C- Keep sanctions on NK as they continue to ignore them and develop a capability that endangers the lives of billions (with a B) and hope that does not eventually lead to global destruction.
Only one option is workable.
Instead of wishful thinking, Americans need to try plain old fashioned human understanding.
If North Koreans had killed 2 million Americans in 1953, would we think of ourselves as crazy if we armed ourselves to the teeth to make sure it never happened again?
The art of successful negotiations starts with striving to understand what the other guy wants and needs, and what he is willing to pay for it.
Key question: does Kim il Jung really think he needs to conquer South Korea to prevent another mass killing of North Koreans? If yes, the current strategy of protecting South Koreans can make the price of getting that too high. If no, his threat to conquer South Korea may be understood as another weapon to defend the North Koreans, the price of which is building a credibly frightening military capability. Neither calculation is the calculation of a ‘madman’.
Americans really truly must drop this current feel-good fad for name-calling. It is not only Trump. The temporary buzz from a well- or ill-crafted insult destroys the ability to understand what is really going on with the other person...it stops us from pursuing real solutions.
I am grateful to Nick Kristof for his willingness to engage in the hard work of understanding other people. I am more frightened of Americans’ lazy wishful thinking than I am of the understandable calculations of North Korea’s leaders trying to prevent another mass slaughter of their people.
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A very good comment, from Terri. My husband and I visited North Korea a few years ago. The feeling I was left with was of impending tragedy. Our guides told us that they needed to defend themselves and to build up their military so as to be able to free their South Korean brothers and sisters from occupation by the USA. When you go to the DMZ and see the guns and the American flags along the border, how can you blame the common people for believing that SK is actually occupied by the US? We met no official representatives (except in some ways of course our guides were just that) but the people we spoke to were longing for reunification of their country - as soon as SK could be liberated from the US occupation. It was their goal to help and their dream to once again be one country. The rhetoric from Mr Trump is playing right to those fears and dreams.
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Actually, the current dictator of North Korea is Kim Jong Un. Kim Il Jung was his father. Reunification of the Korean peninsula has always been their goal, but it does not have to be a conflagration. Only Trump believes this.
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The only problem with that is the overwhelming majority of South Koreans who want US troops right where they are--who could easily take back command of their military and defense of their border but have chosen--repeatedly--not to. Many of these people remember what happened the last time they decided the US was an occupying force and asked them to leave.
And after fifteen years meeting defectors and scholars who do longitudinal studies with them, I do not believe anything will change the narrative in North Korea. They have been accusing the US of this type of belligerence for decades. All he has done is provided evidence for old accusations. But they believed it long before he sank to their level.
It is so depressing seeing the blame-America-first-crowd believing that unkind words by us will cause Kim to order a North Korean attack. I have not seen one expert interviewed say what is obvious: the DDPK is not going to give up either their ICBM or nuclear weapon program regardless of what is said or done diplomatically. The bottom line is that North Korea is going to start mass producing nuclear tipped ICBMs like sausages soon, and only a preventative US attack will stop them. Although not a supporter, I've come to the conclusion that Trump is the right person at the right time because he seems to be able to understand what has to be done when all the experts find it unthinkable.
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Mr Arnold,
I am curious as to what you think Trump should do next. Bomb N. Korean capital and all non-nuclear missile sites before they are launched? There are well over ten million people within non-nuclear missile reach of N Korea. The dictator has pledged to launch a retaliatory attack if provoked. The casualties would be catastrophic and like nothing seen in history. What would he other option be...'surgical' nuclear strike of N. Korean capital to ensure all govt leaders wiped out at once? Please enlighten me as to what Trump's next 'logical' step might be. Untenable situation, yes, but it would out Trump up there with Stalin as having co-orchestrated the largest mass murder in history. Is this 'unthinkable'? As long as its not in my back yard, right?
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Are you suggesting we bomb North Korea without a declaration of war by Congress? How many times are we going to bomb, invade or attack foreign countries without any involvement by Congress? Isn't it their responsibility to declare war? What is the current Congress doing with its time? As far as I can tell, its members spend their time dialing for dollars. They have produced no legislation; no infrastructure funding; no jobs bills; multiple attempts to remove health care from millions of Americans; no limits on a plutocratic takeover of the U.S. government via mega rich donors; and, the placement of a puppet in the White House who will rubber stamp huge tax cuts for the richest among us, shrinking the middle class which built this country.
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Hi Brad and S,
What you've brought up here, Brad, is the only part that makes me hesitate before thinking "Sure, let's just keep the economic pressure up and keep driving to the negotiating table". In North Korea, we are not dealing with a sovereign state- we are dealing with an absolute monarch, reminiscent of medieval Europe's examples- "L'etat c'est Moi" as it were.
Regardless of what his inner justifications may be, Kim Jong Un's true motivation is his protection of a system that enslaves everyone to his worship, will, and service, dedicated to preserving a lifestyle for himself and his heirs. "Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely" (Lord Acton).
The North Koreans are suffering terribly. If we permit Kim Jong Un to keep developing that nation's economy, military, and technology, a much more devastating war is in our future, most certainly. I don't know the path out of that future. Wish I did.
Our terrifying fear of a nuclear war that hangs over our heads is the strongest evidence of Trump's unfitness for the highest office. This fear is not irrational but rather a harbinger of our possible destruction.
We now have reason to believe that members of Trump's cabinet are seeking a way to implement the 25th amendment. Time is running short. The writer of this column as well as like minded readers must do whatever is necessary to end the Trump administration.
The New York Times must use its journalistic leadership to help Americans eliminate the fear that hovers over the country!
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"We now have reason to believe that members of Trump's cabinet are seeking a way to implement the 25th amendment."
This would be cheering news, if true. What's the evidence?
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ChSm....supposedly at least one cabinet member let slip (probably Tellerson) that the reason several members have not resigned despite being publicly humiliated by Trump, is because they want to take responsibility for orchestrating the 25th amendment to remove him from office.
Nikita Khrushchev summed it up best: “Any fool can start a war, and when he’s done so, even the wisest of men are helpless to stop it – especially if it’s a nuclear war.” He also noted that for such an event “the living will envy the dead.”
Khrushchev knew something about war, having come under fire many times during his service in the Red Army from 1919-1921, while Trump has only come under extremely limited fire in claiming a military exemption for bone spurs.
What an irony that Trump has full access to the nuclear codes, since the president – and only the president – decides when to launch. This situation is the result of the Atomic Energy Act, passed under Truman in 1946, due to concern that civilian authority should oversee and supersede that of the military in the event of a possible imminent armed international conflict.
Now it seems our best hope to stave off a potential nuclear confrontation rests in the hands of the small cadre of seasoned military officers immediately surrounding Trump.
Let’s hope that they want to live more than they want to die. I suspect there is a greater than 50% chance that that is the case. But to find ourselves painted into a corner like this – you have to wonder if we didn’t just get what we deserved all along.
We could write Congress saying we would prefer not to be incinerated in a nuclear war and then hope for the best. But to see the world for it really is – now – shows it to be a very dark place. And one of our own making.
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You nailed it.
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That's right. "Any fool can start a war" and Trump is a foolish, vain, childish, uneducated man, a danger to the world.
He has to be removed.
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It is utter selfishness and stupidity on the part of Trump to take on NK, when those who will die in the millions are NOT us the US citizens, but So Korea.
The NK issue is a Korean issue and the primary people responsible for dealing with NK are the So Koreans, NOT the US. What business do we have to threaten NK, when the problem lies in Korea , and the final losers are the Koreans.
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I have never been so scared of a conflagration in my life, knowing the immaturity, rage and set of interconnected delusions both leaders in this unnecessary confrontation suffer from. People do not understand that a miscalculation could turn out as deadly as an act of willful rage. An attack by the North against the South, against Japan or the American fleet would lead to an instant response, and vice-versa. A million people would die the first day - almost all of them in Korea and Japan. Such a war has never occurred in history before.
Why are insane people in two capitals moving us closer toward this end, rather than figuring out how to back away?
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Although the main thrust of Kristoff's morning Op-Ed is at once accurate and horrific, it us understated. The million figure is probably understated, especially as regards Japan against which any attack would presumably be nuclear. It also skirts cost likely to be highly affecting to the general public in the U.S. and, indeed, globally. I refer to tens of thousands of death of U.S. civilians and troops residing in East Asia, a global Depression in the wake of any Japanese catastrophe, and -- less assuredly but utterly horribly-- a, shall we say, Pacific and Pacific coast catastrophe extreme enough to reduce speculations about momentous tidal waves and earthquakes, by comparison, into Hollywood diversions.
On a sunnier note, Kristoff misses those possible outcomes that lie between the horrors of war and unfettered N. Korean developments bellicose nuclear capability, for example a freeze in N. Korean nuclear capability.
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This morning on my computer I watched Lawrence O'Donnell and the Chris Hayes show on MSNBC. The latter included an interview with Steny Hoyer, who expressed concern about the safety of our nation. He is urging Democrats in Congress to pursue impeachment. We need either impeachment or the 25th amendment. This is all coming to a head, and I don't believe we can wait till the next election or for the Mueller investigation to finish.
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We are now realizing the danger of this president to us and the world. The chairperson of the senate Foreign Relations Committee has fears of him starting WW3.
The real power in the world now rests on Generals Kelly and Mattis. God grant them wisdom and strength.
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"The country has seized on Trump’s words to reinforce its official narrative that its nuclear arsenal is defensive, meant to protect Koreans from bullying American imperialists. And North Korean officials use Trump’s bombast as an excuse for their own."
Nicholas, this companion piece to your harrowing article about the mindset of average citizens in North Korea is enough to make one's hair stand on end.
When you write you're "frightened," I feel absolutely terrified given your usual temperance. I grew up during the cold war with the threat of nuclear annihilation--but this seems worse, because all these recent reports on Trump's mental state makes me things are coming to a head.
Each day, the NYT editorials seem to have a common theme, such as presidential ethics (or lack thereof), environmental policy, destruction of the ACA or culture wars.
Today is "nuclear code" day, and how to keep them out of Trump's hands. The prospect of a million people dying on Day #1 with Kim Jong-Un seems unthinkable--but so was Trump's presidency.
Trump's documented obsession with the size and shape of our nuclear arsenal--without the discernment required to understand the answers to his questions--should give us all pause.
It's as if American power and weaponry exist to feed his insatiable ego. Which begs the question: does he think a preemptive strike will make him feel stronger?
The fact I have to ask this question is as unthinkable as nuclear war.
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Donald Trump, a former real estate developer and a reality TV buffoon believes that nothing is taboo and he can say what he wants; everything is negotiable and everybody is less smarter than he. He is obsessed with nukes, and has always hinted that he wouldn't hesitate to use them - a strategy to overwhelm the adversary with bluff and intimidation.
What he doesn't know is the depth of North Korean nationalism. Putin was right: North Koreans would rather "eat grass" then give up their nuclear ambition. Sanctions had not stopped Pyongyang from achieving its goal, due to its cult of self-reliance known as "Juche." Since Trump's condemnable speech before the UN General Assembly last month, vowing to "toally destroy North Korea," the mood among North Koreans is defiant. It plays into Kim Jong-un's hands because his people see him as their devine protector and they also see defending their country as a sacred task.
There is little hope that Pyongyang will be persuaded by Trump's bluster to negotiate. Trump has to put on a brave face and show his supporters that he remains tough on the North. This posture might urge him to act, especially should Kim continue to provoke with more missile launches. Before he hits the nuclear button, Trump has to think about his business interests in Seoul, which wouldn't escape a nuclear war unscathed.
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So … because some can’t imagine Kim giving up his nukes, the only real solution is to cave to him, and to allow him to develop outsized influence over South Korea, Japan and the entire Far-East and Indochina, while blackmailing much of the rest of the world into feeding him. A failed state like North Korea.
That was the “strategy”, used by several presidents, that got everyone into this mess in the first place. The U.S. government’s official position, as well as that of just about any other self-respecting company of heft, is that we don’t negotiate with terrorists. But Kristof implies by his fear of the North Koreans that this is just what we must now do with Kim Jong-un.
While I don’t believe that it will ever come down to a release of nukes by EITHER side, I’m certainly willing to see Trump try something that HASN’T failed yet – loud-mouthed brinkmanship.
The only thing that’s certain is that everything else HAS failed.
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@Richard: No, the only thing certain is that Donald Trump's loud mouth will get us into trouble, as it usually has for him his entire life. If you truly think loud-mouthed brinkmanship is a great strategy because nobody has tried it yet, I hope you have an old bomb shelter lying around somewhere in NJ.
You know, we armchair quarterbacks pontificating about nuclear war in the NYT and the instability of this country's worst president (I think it's fair to say history can already make this assessment) are one thing--but when you consider we're even having an argument over the wisdom of Trump's wild and impetuous taunting of Kim Jong-Un, we must be in more trouble than even I think.
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Christine:
Based on outcomes, I suspect that James Buchanan still holds the "worst president" title. But, then, he was a Democrat, wasn't he? So, I suppose he can do no ill.
Trump reacts in negotiating positions defensively and doesn't back down. Whether as a general matter that's a wise posture for a U.S. president to adopt is debatable, but in this instance, at this historical confluence, we have a world brimming with buccaneers. If you cave with buccaneers, they'll not only rob you blind but they'll kill you and toss your corpse overboard, as well.
Trump won't lose a single vote in 2020 by calling Kim "Rocket Man", and he may pick up a lot more than he did in 2016 -- particularly if he can get Kim to eventually blink when his mobilization thoroughly bankrupts him and nobody remains willing to feed him.
And, then, sometimes, in truly intractable situations, the only real solution is to shoot some S.O.B. (Student of Broadcasting).
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You sound like you believe that Trump’s words are emanating from a stable, rational mind and that his actions are thoughtful and intelligently calculated. How clever of him to act like a 4 year old in the neighborhood. Sorry, I don’t buy it for a minute. I hold him accountable for his behavior and find it terrifying and childish. If there is more substance to him, how long do I have to wait to see it?
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