Mr. Abe’s “lockstep” agreement with US military policy is no surprise. Abe’s war criminal grandfather, Kishi was made Japan’s PM by the USA/ CIA post-war rulers. Shinzo Abe’s government is the most militaristic, jingoistic government in Japan since WW2. He has pushed for the end of the “peace constitution”, and is working to restore Japan’s full capacity to wage war. Abe loves fear-mongering. When the North Korean missiles flew over Japan, air raid sirens wailed and loudspeakers told civilians to take cover. However, China is no friend of Japan nor of the US. China has recently redrawn the map, claiming vast areas of the East and South China seas. On Sept 22, 2010, China stopped sending rare earth minerals to Japan, crippling Japan’s electronic and automotive industries. They demanded that the Japanese release the captain of a fishing boat that had collided with Japanese Coast Guard vessels protecting the Senkoku Islands of Okinawa. Soon after, Japan folded and released the captain. Business returned to usual.
The Chinese and Russians have never signed a peace treaty with Japan, and Japan has never really apologized for the atrocities they visited on their WW2 and colonial victims. China props up North Korea, and will continue to do so. There’s no way China will let North Korea fail, or become part of a unified Korea under South Korean/Japan/USA tutelage. Abe’s note is a smooth and subtle poke at China. The dragons beneath this peaceful facade will not soon sleep.
Iran's leaders will follow the same path, because that is what despots do. They make agreements with no intention of keeping them, they hate the US, and they think nothing of lying to us and then stabbing us in the back. Obama was either foolish and naive, or just plain evil, pushing for that agreement with Iran, and congress was certainly no help. Once we are facing the same problem with Iran that we're having with NK, (very shortly) you can be sure that the nukes they are threatening us with will have been paid for by the US taxpayer, courtesy of the billions that Obama forked over in unmarked bills. How that ideologue stayed in office for eight years without being impeached is a mystery.
1
North Korea has ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons that can hit anyplace in the world. So What? Kim knows that using them will result in the complete destruction of North Korea and the death of the Kim dynasty. Kim may bluster and rage, but he also knows that non-nuclear threats will be met with overwhelming non-nuclear retaliation. Why not just ignore the blow-hard? What we have now is Trump an Kim yelling at each other and saying "mine is bigger than yours."
Just looking at NYT's images will not convey to you, but missiles have serious messages.
The missile flight distance is 3700 km from the launch point.
Yes. That's right. Missiles arrive to Guam.
The missile which jumped over Japan is the same as being directed to Guam.
The Japanese are also very worried about that.
In the end, I think that North Korea is being governed by psychopaths. These are people who have no respect for the people of their own country, whom they certainly do not represent, nor for human life in general.
Then, "several idiots (including our own Presidents) gave them nuclear weapons."
People like this do not listen to reason. To them, War is inevitable, AND War is Glorious. They're eager to throw their own people to their destruction, and, when it comes time to shoot their missiles, they really don't care which way they point them.
Although President Trump startled many people by speaking "in the language of the gun," I think he sees the situation far more realistically than others do. As he said, "this has been going on for much too long."
The simple reality of the matter is going to be that those missiles are going to continue to be a threat to the entire world – to the East, West, North and South – until those missiles and their launch facilities are destroyed. The psychopaths are going to continue to be psychopaths until they are dead. And the People of North Korea have no hope of liberation from their fifty-year long nightmare until these things happen.
The trick will be how to accomplish this without giving the psychopaths the "glorious War" that they now dream of. How to do it while saving as many (North) Korean lives as possible. These psychos would cheerfully throw firey war upon the rest of the planet so that they could toast marshmallows.
the concern i have with those who say that north korea will never use their nukes because they are only for self protection is --- what if the reason for nukes is to provide a protective umbrella to launch a conventional attack on the south? north korea can ensure it can end a war that is going badly for it by threatening to use nukes unless the opposing side agrees to a cease fire. its irrational to invade the south, you say, and thus north korea won't do it? how rational is it to put your people in gulags, and have them live in a tightly run police state in the 21st century? north korea really is a nut house, almost a caricature of an insane dictatorship, complete with the maniacally smiling madman in charge and legions of fawning comrades, fearful of a mistep lest they be executed by anti-aircraft gun...how rational is all that?
3
This may be a silly question, but if we find that foreign governments are supplying the North Koreans with rocket fuel and hardware as well as violating the sanctions against trading with North Korea under the UN embargo why don't we slap international sanctions on those governments?
3
Looks like the folks here are blaming the wrong rogue country. Give North Korea assurances that we will not attack them, will not try to change the leaders and will guarantee their stability and the deal is done. Unfortunately, the rogue nation needs an enemy and one more vassal. Can you guess who that is? I'm sure you cannot.
We (the world) holds its breath that this chapter ends well. It is a very real test for the world's major countries (China, U.S., Russia, and Europe most specifically) to find the way to impose North Korea's de-nuclearization, in the vital interests of everyone. There is a model already being tested to see how this can done (or not, we'll have to see) in the "Iran Deal." The obvious difference is that North Korea already has nuclear weapons, which it will have to give up. No more fun and games. If there are 100 people in a room and one has a weapon that can blow them all up, the other 99 have to insist that the latter hand over his weapon.
In all of my experiences working international and national security issues, the one constant has been that, with very few exceptions, national leaders act in the interests of their nation or to further their own political interests. Successful diplomacy is not a zero sum game. The interests of participants must all have the belief that they have gained something in the process. The Iran nuclear agreement is a classic example.
The most effective way to kill a negotiating process is for one or more of the participants to demand pre-conditions that all know are not acceptable to the other party, such as with the failed Israeli/Palestinian conflict.
Can North Korea be dealt with diplomatically? Threats of war that dismiss diplomacy, such as made by President Trump, won't work. Cooler heads need to be involved.
This and every article like it fail to mention the provocations that the US uses to needlessly anger and scare the North, namely routine war gaming right on their doorstep.
There's no reason the activities can't go any place on the planet, if they really are as essential as some claim.
1
Despite the fact that Japan had once, seventy-six years ago, initiated the wars against the United States, the Rising Sun people has drawn profound admiration for Japan's pacifist policy and its rise to the second then third ranked economic power.
Premier Abe Shinto and the Japanese people deserve a chance to become a military power as the world has been plunging in disorder, turmoil and the threat of a general war in Asia. Best of luck, the heroic Japanese people.
1
I could never contemplate a preemptive strike against the DPRK - until recently. They will not be content with a few nuclear warheads owned as a deterrent against regime change. Kim has stated his intention of achieving parity with other nuclear powers and he will if not stopped. He is already terrorizing his neighbors. What will he extort from Western nations as his arsenal and its sophistication grows? Can sanctions work? Don't count on more than nodding compliance from China or Russia. China has lost their leash on Kim and strategically, neither country has a motivation to rein him in. The current situation is nightmarish and millions of lives are at risk, but I don't see much alternative. Kim is currently an existential threat to the Korean peninsula and Japan. He's becoming an existential threat to all civilization.
2
North Korea does not want a war. The missiles they are launching are a threat tactic, the same a lion will puff out its mane and fur to look bigger. They are, in their way, desperate for the rest of us to back off--to normalize and legitimize their regime, even while their regime has flouted previous agreements and has its eyes on expanding its rule.
I am not saying we should ignore North Korea. However, assuming they are more serious about war, look for the attack platforms and weapons the country is hiding as opposed to the admittedly terrifying weapon system they're flaunting.
1
If Mr. Abe is so concern about the situation regarding NK, I think the US ought to just let Shogun Abe to take the lead in dealing with the Kim's regime.
I am becoming more convinced that the decision to attack North Korea was made months ago, perhaps even during the Obama administration. Trump said Obama told him that North Korea was going to be his most immediate problem. Why? What about ISIS? Nope..North Korea. In my estimation, all of the UN sanctions and daily news about missile and nuke tests is old news, leaked out at the chosen time to prepare the public for war. It's all to give us time to get ready. In other words, I think military powers that be concluded more talk was futile a long time ago. We're going to war, folks. It's just a question of when.
As a Japanese citizen, I'm concerned about what the Prime Minister Abe Shinzo says in this New York Times OP-ED article. He says "prioritizing diplomacy and emphasizing the importance of dialogue will not work with North Korea" and "more dialogue with North Korea would be a dead end."
He also states "I firmly support the United States position that all options are on the table." Although he doesn't mention anything about military actions against North Korea in this article, I'm afraid that it may mislead some readers to jump to the conclusion that the military action is the only solution and that Japan is OK with it. But if the war broke out between the US and North Korea, we know that South Korea and Japan will be the targets of the North, with some studies projecting more than 300,000 dead in the opening days in Seoul alone. A war is simply not an option for South Korea and Japan, but Abe's article may send a wrong message, I'm afraid.
15
These days we exaggerate every single threat to look more important as the leaders and the journalists… When the people are fearful they ask the politicians no questions and follow blindly the media outlets, thus driving up the advertisement rates…
"The international community must stay united and enforce the sanctions against Pyongyang", until he kills millions. THEN, some folks will wake up!
2
America is in the middle of significant intellectual, moral and journalistic decline because everything is driven by the ratings.
The three quarters of century ago we were concerned with Nazi Germany, fascist Japan and the communist USSR.
Now we have the gigantic defense budgets because we are allegedly threatened by the Taliban, the Al Qaeda, the ISIS and North Korea...
If we are afraid even of them, then we are in the state of permanent fear.
We as the nation should be concerned with Mullah Omer, Osama bin Laden, Al Baghdadi and Kim Jong Un?!
Really?!
That’s not leadership; that’s the flagrant absence of any strategic direction and guidance…
1
Yes, North Korea poses a real threat, particularly to South Korea and Japan. My question is, "why did the United States of America occupy Korea in the first place - and why are we still there?"
The first installment of Ken Burn's new documentary "The Vietnam War" aired last night and I wondered the same thing while watching it. Why were we there? The first installment infers that it's because America had intervened to "save" Europe from Hitler and Presidents from Harry Truman to Nixon wanted to "save" Vietnam from communism and did not want to lose face by admitting we were losing so the presidents all pretended things were going fine. They were not and tens of thousands of American military and millions of Vietnamese were being slaughtered simply to keep the military/weapons complexes busy - in the name of democracy.
Can South Korea and Japan keep functioning without the United States' presence? Perhaps it is time to find out. Russia and China both want us OUT of their territory and both have adopted the Robber Baron capitalistic system to some extent. Putin stole it. China is using it.
How about we leave the area and let Russia and China fight it out? Let people around the world decide how they want to live and let them build and pay for it for themselves.
3
Agree with most of it. Can you please tell me why South Korea and Japan are their territory
Mr Abe, thank you for writing here. I believe in the version expressed by Evan Osnos of the New Yorker. Dictators who have given up on their nuclear arsenal (Gaddafi and Lybia, S. Hussein and Iraq) were then removed from power. North Korea is simply learning its lessons...
1
If one looked up the definition of "kicking the can down the road" there should be a map of North Korea and the photographs of about 6 presidents.
Does anyone really think North Korea will launch an attack deliberately against the United States? Kim Jong Un, as unpredictable as he is, knows full well that will precipitate a response that will kill him. The man loves his dumplings and his lifestyle, even while his country starves. He looks like he hasn't missed a meal since, well, ever.
What really scares me is an accidental attack, like he fires a rocket whose course takes it over Japan and it malfunctions and actually hits the island of Japan. Then what happens?
If he is doing this so that he can have a legitimate seat at the table why not give him that seat? Certainly there are a hundred despots in the world who have been recognized and dealt with. Why has no president actually met with him, or set up the machinery to do that?
It's like ignoring a child who is brandishing a loaded firearm. At some point you may have to try talking to get the gun put away so it can't hurt anyone.
2
Further arming and possibly nuclerizing of Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea will be the consequence of this "crisis", very much against China's interest.
If the Chinese have any influence on NK they will do something soon as the payoffs are getting starkly negative for them. My guess is however that they don't have much influence as they would have not let things get here.
NK already had a gun to Seoul's head which always made any first strike from US / SK unfeasible. Artillery shells are harder to stop than rockets. But why get a second gun when they already have one? What if this is an attempt to get a gun to China's head? Or maybe Un is bored and needs fun projects.
NK needs trade like air. They most likely cannot make most of the things they need especially things like computers. Let's see how good they are at making their own micro-chips, servers, or screens. Those are actually harder to make than rockets. USSR had a space program has anyone heard of Soviet computers?
Also - what imperialist Japan did in WW2 cannot be brought to justify NK's nuclear arming actions (as I see many commentators do) without enabling an argument for all the countries in the world to nuclearize.
5
Flying Japan's and our warplanes over South Korea is a way to get Kim to behave? Have we forgotten what Japan did to Korea in the second world war? We are technically still at war with the North since the Korean War was put on pause how do we think our show of muscle is going over in North Korea? The North probably knows what is our arsenal better than most countries on the planet so why keep throwing sand in each other's face? The world needs to find a way for both countries immature leaders to save face in this game of Brinkmanship they are playing.We know they can destroy Seoul and they know we can destroy the world now hat?
3
I think we all agree that North Korea can not be the problem it is if they did not get the help from China and or from Russia.
I want to know why they are helping North Korea.
At one time I thought it was because they were helping a Communist country
fight the evils of the Capitalist West.
Maybe it was one one time in the past but can not be now as both countries depend on the West for the health of their economy.
I believe they are doing more than just helping North Korea exist and therefore
can do as they please without being harmed by any sanctions the West wants to use against them.
I believe they are making the policy the leader of North Korea follows.
I believe they want to fight the West but can't because they depend on the West.
I believe they are using North Korea to threaten the West without making themselves appear as if they are the ones doing it.
When you realize this then it is easy to know why making a agreement with North Korea will not help you.
We are trying to negotiate with the wrong people.
We need to know what does China and Russia want from us.
We can then determine what we should do.
1
In the past, North Korea has engaged in this kind of activity when there was something else that they needed. Do we know what Pyongyang might have in mind this time? While the threat needs to be contained, as Prime Minister Abe makes clear, there are more options for response than would seem immediately obvious.
We've seen how effective sanctions are against N. Korea, let's see if military power is more persuasive. Use conventional means to obliterate N. Korea's military, leadership, and nuclear assets, while at the same time putting in place a complete naval blockade of the country.
If we had done that three weeks ago, we wouldn't be worrying about N.Korea this week.
1
Are we schizophrenic as a society?
We are on the verge of the nuclear conflict with North Korea, but we are preoccupied with the Emmy Awards, the acting celebrities, the designer gowns and the sexy figures.
The great nations always deploy all their resources to solve their worst problems.
The focus of the entire nation should be on the matters of nuclear wars and making the peace deals.
Otherwise, we end up waging the Cold War with Russia since 1945, the war in the Holy Land since 1948, the Korean conflict since 1950, the Iranian animosity since 1953, the Cuban crisis since 1962, the Afghan War since 1980, and the Iraqi War since 1990…
It seems that we are only capable of wrapping up the wars we lose as it happened in Vietnam…
Focus, focus, focus! No fun till the problem is gone!
1
Dear NYT,
If we end up in the nuclear war, it will be on you!
Those who stubbornly refuse to promote the best options eventually end up saddled with the worst ones…
1
It's important to note that the missile did go "over" Japan, but it did so through space, as it is an ICBM. That's how ICBM's work, they go into space. Space is not usually considered part of another nations airspace and it's not a violation to fly over them. Otherwise we would be breaching everyone else's airspace constantly with our satellites, space shuttle orbiter, space stations, etc... so what NK did was not a violation of international law. Actually the point was to test rockets on a longer trajectory without shooting it towards the US, or South Korea, or China for that matter. Hokkaido is the least populated area they could have tested it over.
1
Hypocrisy! As if Japan is not secretly preparing to produce nuclear weapons and developing its own delivery capabilities, under your direction, Mr. Abe, as Japan re-militarizes.
2
Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan, is 100% correct stating that - "Solidarity and concerted effort among the international community, together with the effective role of the United Nations, are more vital than ever."
The questions asked by Prime Minister Abe, in the NYT article, need an answer - "How could North Korea relentlessly pursue missile development and nuclear tests over almost half a century? How could North Korea, under successive United Nations sanctions for a decade, acquire enormous resources to obtain crude materials, components and powerful engines? Statistics show that there are countries, mainly in Asia, that continue trading with North Korea; and for some, as recently as in 2016, their trade even exceeded that of the previous year. According to the United Nations, foreign-made parts have been used in North Korea’s ballistic missiles. There are countries buying products and services from North Korea or accepting its workers. Front companies established in Asia enable North Korea access to foreign currencies.
Maybe, the NYT can investigate and name the nations. Thank you, NYT.
1
Nuclear war cannot be contained. It is suicidal for either nuclear armed side to resort to war with such weapons. So who is threatening suicide if the other side does not agree to talk about getting rid of its suicidal weapons?
When two fools mutually congratulate each other for their alleged greatness, the unconditional alliance and locked-in steps no additional commentary is necessary…
Isn’t it time to change the course after six decades?
Failure to achieve the permanent peace during such a protracted period is a sign of ultimate foolishness…
This the true statement regardless whether we talk about the Balkans, the Middle East or the Far East…
It is odd that that the NY Times chose such a controversial and divisive figure to call us to "unity."
Why not just have Donald Trump write this Op Ed?
And it's always odd how the "international community" is mentioned.
Most of the "international community" is not affected by and, therefore, could care less what Kim does.
In fact, MOST of the "international community" feels much more threatened by Donald Trump than it does by Kim.
"Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it"....George Santayana. Have we learned nothing from the past? Have we forgotten Hitler, Stalin, Hirohito, Pol Pot and all the other's that have been responsible for untold evil and tens of millions of deaths? The sanctions and diplomacy haven't work because Kim Jong-un, like these others, is evil and the sanctions are not serious. Here is a straighforward plan:
1, Impose the most draconian sanctions on North Korea and see which countries are willing to participate.
2. If that doesn't work, sanction the enablers, i.e., China & Russia with serious, hurtful sanctions.
3. If China is willing to pursue their enabling despite serious economic harm, then assemble nations of the willing and take out N. Korea's regime. These are not easy solutions, but we have reached the Rubicon with this maniac. Time to act now.
3
The problem is that everyone thinks Kim is worried about an attack by the United States or South Korea. He is worried about regime change but the threat is internal.
The Kims and their kleptocracy have survived since 1953 because they have convinced their subjects that there is a real threat from South Korea and the United States. Giving up nuclear weapons development would both tick-off the North Korean military establishment and signal to the people of North Korea that there is no threat. In the long run, that would pose the real threat to the Kim regime.
16
To those who think a military conflict is the inevitable, sole option: imagine you are living in Manhattan and the North Korean border is the Connecticut border. Just beyond Greenwich and New Caanan stand tactical nuclear weapons aimed at Times Square and Wall Street. Flight time is less than six minutes and, once airborne, they are virtually impossible to stop. Any conflict begins with you losing Midtown, the financial district, all bridges in and out of Manhattan, LGA, and JFK. This is the shadow Seoul lives in, and northern Japan is only a few minutes behind. Living in that reality, you might be persuaded to look a little harder for non-military alternatives.
84
Tom, it is 100% right to pursue a non-violent solution. But to get there, the NK-Regime needs to see a very concrete and credible downside from pursuing further their aim to get their nuclear-tipped ICBMs ready. And time is ticking.
If, however, the over a quarter-century old appeasement policy continues for another year or two, your ceneraio does actually apply indeed. We are living in the last months of a time window, where the USA can actually force the NK-Regime to comply with the UN resolutions. And it will be force - violent or diplomatic - that will bring such a regime to actually listen the world. Kim - if not a total fool - will only give in, if he seas a viable threat to himself or his artillery. So, if the USA take his - not ready yet - nuke program out from the game, he might get very furios but still comply. If I understand the publicly available intelligence correctly, it is - up to the present moment - still possible to put so much force to him, that he will have to make a choice: Survive without nukes or start his artillery on a 95% evacuated Seoul Metropolitan Area and die the very first day of his agression.
Once again, we live in times with difficult decisions to be taken and their is no way around them. Either we bend to a notorious murderer and his aim to blackmail the globe with nuclear ICBMs or we will succeed to make him comply. If we actually want to prevent war from happening, we need to show him, that we are ready to fight and kill him off on day 1.
Solidarity? Shinzo Abe should first work on that in Japan itself. Mr. Inoki had a good visit to North Korea.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/14/world/asia/japan-north-korea-antonio-...®ion=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=14&pgtype=sectionfront
3
The Korean War never ended. The armistice signed in 1953 was only a short-term solution to the problem. North Korea has been hell-bent in destroying the South since then. 64 years later, North Korea wants to finally win the war. We should have dealed with this at least 60 years ago, but we let it snowball. I don't think this "cold" war is going to end well.
7
Re: Parag. 12; Are we supposed to guess who those Asian countries are?
Let's get creative here. Don't punish the North Korean people for their pathological leader. Shinzo Abe doesn't mention the North Korean leader by name, which is strange. Japan can't wage war, but it has the martial arts to assassinate Kim Jong-un as creatively as he assassinated his brother, uncle, and defence minister.
1
You're not going to stop North Korea with sanctions, Kim Jong-Un isn't stupid. We all know what happens to dictators who give up their WMDs, they end up swinging from a noose or being beaten to a pulp by rebels. Either go big or go home, invade the country guns blazing or get used to living in a world with an armed North Korea. Pick one.
3
Please, Japan, don't pretend innocent! You should have known it is you that caused N. Korea to behave so. Japan warlords ,your great great grandfather's brutal invasion of the whole Korean Peninsula and ensuing brutal treatment of Koreans for a century until the atomic bombs dropped on you Japan. Now that the rest of the world seems to forget about this dark history of you and regard you as victims instead of aggressors. But the real victims of Koreans, Chinese knew the truth; not that they couldn't forgive you, but you should have formally gone to these Asian nations while in office and kneel down in front of their tombs like the German primnister onetime did and asked for forgiveness, offering significant compensation to improve the descendants of your victims there. Not just issue a statement and paid off a little money to the remaining few victims of the group-raped women by your military during the war. Not erase this section of history off your school books, but really admitted your old crimes and teach your young men about the real cause of your neighbors' hatred. Until then will N. Korea and China really believe in your repent and never again do them harm.
6
Here is the favorite statement of the leaders like Shinzo Abe and Donald Trump: “I firmly support the United States position that all options are on the table.”
That has always been the credo of the politicians having no idea what the best interest of their country is…
The lack of understanding of the strategic interests has always resulted in the abundance of the available options…
To the people without any analytical skills all the options are equally attractive…
3
Shinzo must believe in the Easter Bunny, if thinks China and Russia will abide by sanctions.
1
Mr. Prime Minister,
You should have shot down any missile in the air space of Japan that originated on the Asian Continent.
Do not rely on the embargo of North Korea -- they will always find a way to circumvent it.
I was struck by reference to NoKo kidnapping of Japanese nationals, this is or should be a casus bellus, but is rather somehow in the category of 'wearing white after Labor Day' or some other procedural gaffe
Japan's de facto acquiescence in THAT will surely have encouraged further international crimes by Norkia, and shows Japan won't fight
(We skip the Japanese kidnapping of Korean women, in the 1,000s or more, 1940-1945, for sexual slavery, since Koreans seem to not make this prominent, politics make strange bedfellows indeed, as it were)
SoKo has accepted: sinking of a naval vessel, downing of an airliner, and a decapitation strike, and STILL won't fight
=
Japan should overfly a missile, over Norkia, maybe from a ship, in joint military ops w SoKo, once they rebuild their military, resume air raid drills, harden targets, and the like
and Seoul is still hostage, to Norkia, and likely has already LOST the 2nd Korean War w/o a shot fired in anger (or only a few, Sun Tzu would be proud)
T Roosevelt once brokered a peace deal, Japan v Rus, got a Nobel/Peace back when it meant something, 'walk softly and carry a big stick'
Ah, That Was Then This Is Now
Japan's 'win', 1905, might have started modern involvement w Korea
We STILL barely know Norkia's goals, a 'Norkia First' policy,Korea for (some) Korean)
International law, is the tooth fairy
sorry, Do your homework. Facts show the money is being laundered by the shell companies, the 1%. Billionaires and banks , Panama papers shows British Man Sets up a bank in NK, after working at HSBC, vs, Hong Bong or New York, "cause it was more fun." Two Australians linked to NK ballistic missile program. Billionaires and banks, what's a few millions to them? Maybe it will be enough to make the billions see red and take the 1%, the bankersall out?
North Korea poses no significant challenge to the world. Maybe to Japan and perhaps to S. Korea and the USA but not the world.
North Korea taken one very important lesson from the international non-proliferation regime: Countries without nuclear capabilities are targets of invasions -- Iraq and Libya -- whereas no nuclear power has ever been "liberated" by a foreign power.
Kim Jung Un has an insurance policy against invasion, the best one money can buy -- hydrogen bombs and long range missiles to deliver them.
By arcing missiles over Japan, Kim endears himself to his countrymen, who suffered greatly under the wrath of Imperial Japan's occupation, suppression, ethnic cleansing and outright torture from 1910 until August 1945.
Abe's grandfather was a key player in Japan's brutal campaign in Korea and Kim's grandfather made his bones by opposing him. Just a coincidence Kim fired a missile over Japan as Abe dined with Trump?
Abe worries about chemical attacks from N. Korea but he neglects to mention Imperial Japan's massive biological and chemical research complexes in Korea and nearby Manchuria -- research done on unanesthetized Koreans and Chinese, which surpasses in scope and cruelty the experimentation done by the Nazi's infamous Dr. Mengele.
Pyongyang was destroyed by American bombers. An estimated 2.7 million N. Koreans were killed -- the majority civilians.
Kim knows the history and, unfortunately, he needs the insurance policy only a nuclear bomb can bring.
4
Japan, real what you've sown. After invading China and Korea, you have some nerve complaining about abduction.
Every threat from North Korea is conditional on American threats. If we'd leave your area alone, North Korea would receive technical assistance to improve the harvest yield.
Clean up your own back yard and stop pretending that you're not opposed by Russia and China.
Japan, a member of the G7, is 72 (Hong Kong is 73) in freedom of the press rankings by the UN.
A shame to see the NYT running an Op-Ed by Abe.
I believe Mr. Abe finds himself in the same difficult position many Americans also find themselves in. We are faced with real problems that need real solving but find Mr. Trump such a despicable and inept character that we would rather see Trump fail then actually solve a problem and watch him crow about his accomplishment.
Such a position is made all the more easier to take given that almost any solution Mr. Trump comes up with will likely be as bad or worse then the current situation. Right now, about the only thing saving our nation from the Trump Presidency backed by a rightwing control of everything else is Trump's own insanity, and I dare say that is about the only thing saving the world from him as well.
3
War, not North Korea, is the serious threat to our world. Our current crop of militaristic heads of state- including Abe and Trump- hasten war but will not be the ones to suffer from it. Japan and the USA do their practice war games in the Sea of Japan, and then their leaders cry out, "Oh, oh, oh, look at crazy North Korea!"
Little boys playing games. The people of the USA and Japan want peace.
4
Kim Jong Un has shown himself to be little more than an international thug, ruthlessly suppressing his own people while reveling himself in his ability to deceive, betray and intimidate any and all of his neighbors. Diplomacy thus far amounts to abdication. His threats must no longer be placated. His enablers and apologists must be made to account. Kim Jong Un is a dangerous man and his highest ambition appears to be attaining the reputation of the most feared person on Earth. We have seen his type throughout history and we know how similar stories have ended in ruin. Perhaps he has a death wish and wants to take the rest of the world with him. Kim Jong Un does not appear to be someone with whom you can reason. He has always gotten his way because no one has ever dared challenge him. It is time for the rest of the world to isolate him until it hurts enough for him to relent, or for his own people to see how their tolerance of him has becomes intolerable for themselves.
1
Japan has little credibility in its appeal for Chinese sanctions, which, given the low esteem of the United States in a Third World suffering neo-colonial market exploitation, will not work.
Watching the "Rape of Nanking"(Dec. 1937-Jan 1938), an atrocity resulting in 300,000 Chinese civilian deaths at the hands of Japan's Crown Prince leadership (graphic video on YouTube), one wonders whether Japan's Shinzo Abe or the Japanese people understand China's reluctance to join the "ironclad Japan-United States alliance ....in coordinated ...lockstep with the United States and South Korea." As gun rights advocates point out in the United States, it's not the gun that kills but the person with a gun who kills with it.
And it's not North Korean nuclear armed missiles but the North Korean leadership with the missiles and nuclear armed submarines who can kill people with them. But it is also true that unless extreme care is taken, a gun in the home is as likely to accidentally or in self-inflicted acts kill the owner as be used to kill an intruder. Either we destroy that North Korean leadership intent on keeping its nuclear armed defense, or we engage directly with them in dialogue to contain the spread of the weapons to a third world hostile to us. Hostile for good reasons.
1
Dear Prime Minister Abe,
Of course, the United States should honor its commitments to its allies especially both Japan and South Korea.
However, you refer, rather vaguely, to countries, "mainly in Asia", that continue to trade with the North. Of what "countries" do you speak? There are not many that could supply the materials needed for nuclear weapons and delivery systems leading me to an obvious conclusion, namely, that China is the culprit. Perhaps, if your country has verifiable evidence of such collusion, you may wish to make such violations "public" bringing pressure upon China to enforce, with actions, the sanctions it claims to support.
Otherwise, it would seem war with North Korea is almost inevitable.
The White House and president Trump have been embarrassing us in front of the entire world.
First he directed our ambassador to pressure the UN Security Council into implementing the new harsh sanctions on North Korea only to afterwards declare that he doesn’t believe the sanctions would work.
So why to implement them at all?
Why not to move immediately to the solutions that are proven to work?
For example, what about the direct negotiations? If Mr. Trump cannot negotiate effectively with youngish Kim Yong Un, we might need a better president.
For God’s sake, we had the same problem several decades ago and we solved it by directly negotiating with the USSR.
We did not demand Moscow to deprive themselves from the nuclear weapons and the ballistic missiles, did we?
We have only two available options on the table - the nuclear war and the direct negotiations with Pyongyang.
I truly hope the White House will choose the right one…
1
I know you hate Trump and want to find a way to get him out of office.
I sympathize.
Trump will probably fail.
That should be expected because everyone in the past has failed as well.
The problem isn't on our side.
The problem in on the other side.
You can not compare Russia with North Korea.
I do not the Russians them but we know we can trust them.
Can we say the same about the leader of North Korea.
Pakistan and China aided and abetted the North Korean regime over the past three decades, and they should be called out. Alas, American diplomats, military leaders, and politicians shut a blind eye to these developments, and now the whole world will have to pay for this vile and dangerous "realpolitik".
2
What concerns me most is that the Prime Minister of Japan felt it necessary to make this appeal through the pages of the NYT rather than through diplomatic channels; is nobody listening to them any more?
I fear that Fox News or Twitter might have been more expedient.
Dear Sir,
During the Cuban Missile Crisis, America went to the United Nations for help, and now it is time for the United Nations to ask America to step in. Calling on all Civilized Nations across the borders to unite and put an end to this great evil.
It is a privilege to read your call for World Solidarity at this time, and this American remains respectfully yours.
1
Threat what threat, just something you read in the newspaper, just something the government tells you to believe. Is there any examinable physical evidence to be studied and analyzed? Answer that, evidence we don't need no stinking evidence, when we need to hate but to send our best young men to kill and be killed is not just lazy thinking but the consequences are truly evil.
It's not even about NK having nukes.
It's about NK selling nuclear technology to rogue states or terrorist organizations, particularly if they are desperate for hard currency. BTW , note Saudi Arabia's intentions to build dozen of nuclear reactors.
Also note that Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have VERY close relations. Saudi Arabia will be a nuclear state in a heartbeat. Sorry, I digress.
I'm not sure if the Chinese or Russians prefer a nuclear North Korea but that's water under under the bridge. Our best bet is to try to infiltrate and subverse the NK regime. Maybe the Israelis can help.
This is the best bet. Cheep and clean. And we know Kim is worried about this and sees it as a real and present danger. He had his half brother assassinated last year in China. Start from there.
2
The worst national security threat to America is not Kim Jong Un and North Korea but our very president Donald Trump.
He is holding all of us hostages to his personal ego and hubris.
Mr. Trump has repeatedly mocked his predecessor for the negotiations and the nuclear deal with Tehran.
Now, if he does exactly the same with Pyongyang everybody will berate the incumbent president and mock him publically.
Thus the worst national security threat to our country is that the White House might push us into the nuclear conflict in order to protect their own “image and gravitas”…
That’s why they have refused to choose the best solution – the direct negotiations with North Korean government. The executive branch is wasting the precious time and allows the crisis to additionally escalate…
It means that the cheap pre-election politics and the reckless campaign rhetoric are endangering our future…
Since the true democracy is always honest, efficient and productive it means the things we witness on the campaign trails are not a part of democratic process but just a kind of circus and entertainment, thus should not be financed by the campaign donations. It should be treated as the regular business activity and all the money donated for those political events should not be tax exempt…
1
Australian and two other British individuals have sold billions in weapons to NKorea brought to light by the seemingly all too hastily forgotten Panama Papers. Australian and Bristish have facilitated billions of dollars in weapons sales . You don't have to look far for the bad guys. their right next door. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https:/... Don't forget some of the .01% will always be sellers of weapons, .l don't think we have the resolve to fight the rich, the banks..so a few millions die..maybe that will wake up the zombies, sorry to be blunt.
North Korea is to political governance as the Medellin Cartel is to the import/export trade. Both have supporters in the international community who tolerate their hostage taking because it furthers the their interests. North Korea could not have gained access to the technologies and materials that enable nuclear weaponry without the support of those in the international community who, for geo political reasons of their own, want N Korea to be hostage taking gangster state.
The problem in all of this is not whether sanctions will work. They won't. Both China and Russia will continue to supply N Korea covertly with necessary technologies and funding. They have for decades and they will continue to do so ... until it becomes useful for them to abandon N Korea.
The real problem is all of this is Seoul. Located just 35 miles from the DMZ, Seoul is within artillery and rocket range of N Korea. Seoul has a population of ~11m people. If and when N Korea decides to do so, Seoul will likely experience at least 1m casualties due to just conventional weapons.
Yes, sanctions are the only way to deal with N Korea at this time. When they don't work because of Chinese and Russian sabotage, then someone will have to decide whether to try to decapitate both the leadership and the launch sites of the north. Such a strike will likely take out both. At the same time, it will seal the fate of millions on the peninsula.
"If and when N Korea decides to do so, Seoul will likely experience at least 1m casualties due to just conventional weapons."
Boo-hoo. They have had decades to prepare for this well-known threat.
Military solution is the only solution to this particular situation.
When is the West give up it's pride & principles of using sanctions against Kim Jong-un and for the sake of PEACE & invite him for a 'ROUND TABLE CONFERENCE' at the United Nations Conference taking place this week in NYC. This approach would show respect for the North Korean people who have suffered so much since the Korean War killing 30% of its population. This GOODWILL approach could also support an uprising by the Korean people against the dictatorial dynasty of the Kim Jong family!
In 1937, Japan invaded and occupied China and most of eastern Asia. The result was genocide on the same scale as Hitler committed in Europe. Japan has never really atoned for its sins. In fact, Abe still honors the war criminals who led Japan into WWII. And worst of all, because of the actions of Japan's leaders, the Japanese people suffered two punishing nuclear strikes in 1945, the two most horrendous single days in all of the history of war.
Long before young Kim lost his mind, Shinzo Abe was pressing to re-militarize Japan, which is just as threatening to many of Japan's Asian neighbors as are the aggressive postures of China and its client state North Korea. Sadly, the actions of Kim play write into Abe's strategy to make Japan into a military power again. However, Abe's agressive militarism is playing with fire. And the young people of Japan may get burned.
5
So what exsctly is the next step? With respect to sanctions, we're now left with the ace in the poker hand: oil cut off. And there's no way China will okay that. Almost feels like the ball is in their court
North Korea has all it needs to attack South Korea and Japan, but why would it unless it is backed into a corner. Kim knows that should one of his missiles fall on Japan or South Korea, it would be over for him. The only course of action is to let him continue his bellicose ways with the knowledge that any serious action he takes will mean the total incineration of himself, his cronies, Pyongyang and any other possible place he may have hidden missiles or any military assets.
1
To bad there's no real "impossible mission" force, with a diplomat ,electronic expert , disguise expert , a strong man and a beautiful woman to take him out.
I wonder. Why did North Korea and Iran aggressively pursue a nuclear arms program to the chagrin of the international community? Could it be in response to President G.W. Bush's "Evil Nations" speech? Could it be in response to the second Iraq invasion? If so, then North Korea's foreign and military policy is driven by fear, and perhaps worse, paranoia. It strikes me that trust or lack of mutual trust is a primary concern. How do you stop someone from jumping off a bridge? Do you approach that person with threats? Does isolation and costly restrictions increase or decrease paranoia? Is the Korean War really over? Take away the bellicose spirit and military armaments from North Korea, then what kind of country do you have? Is that what the world wants? Is that what North Korean neighbors want. Is that what North Korea wants?
2
There is no solidarity in sanctions, although Russia voted for sanctions against the proliferating nuclear activity in North Korea, Russia already announced they would be sending oil to North Korea, & China doesn’t have to say anything, they will continue to supply whatever North Korea requires.
The free world has two options, give in to North Korea’s goal of uniting Korea, or nuke them, & start a nuclear war with China.In other words we cannot win for losing. The time to pressure North Korea is long over. they have us & the rest of the world over a barrel, Our Ambassador to the UN knows this and our sanctions will do nothing to prevent NK from changing or stopping their saber rattling. We have once again been out smarted. What has come out of this is the obvious deficiency in our ability to negotiate.It started with Roosevelt's give away of Eastern Europe to the Soviet Union.Our wasteful, unsuccessful wars in Korea & Vietnam, & it continues with the Iran Nuclear deal & opening our markets to China , which has helped them in eventually over taking our leadership in the world.
1
The danger posed by North Korea is only amplified by our weakened State Dept.
Without a fully staffed Foreign Service we risk the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction to countries and bad actors around the world.
As economic pressure is stepped up on Dear Leader he will surely attempt to evade our intelligence networks to sell his wares on the world market.
Our own fearless leader only encourages this behavior.
2
That is nonsense. There is no "North Korean Threat". North Korea is not threatening anyone. That is DPRK who is being constantly threatened with regime change and now even with assassination of its leaders. Given the history of foreign invasions and regime changes by US, DPRK has every reason to fear and to want to protect itself. Without that constant threat they would have no need to develop nuclear weapons and ICBMs. Stop threatening North Korea and guarantee its security first, if you want them to reconsider their need for the nuclear deterrent.
2
Iron-clad alliance between Japan and US? I thought the Japanese were in alliance with Germany against the US...? Shinzo Abe is history revisionist. Abe conveniently forgets imperialistic aspirations of the Japanese "empire". Japanese were harsh invaders. Their atrocities all over Asia will not be easily forgotten. Trump shows his usual lack of understanding history by siding with Japanese, to the detriment of choosing Japan over South Korea in the view of many Asians. Asians have long memory. Japanese rhetoric and actions strengthening their relative militaristic positions in the world, and the US support of such Japanese actions, will definitely cast long underlying subtle ripples throughout Asia.
The US and S Korea should sign a peace treaty with N Korea to remove Fearless Leader's last excuse. And then, the US should withdraw from S Korea rebuild its nuclear deterrence and boost ABM. Japan and S Korea should buy or develop their nuclear deterrence and ABM capabilities. Talk with N Korea, China and Russia will only increase CO2 pollution.
Mr. Abe, what is happening now is a consequence of Japan's pacifism. If Japan had nuclear weapons, Korea and its ally China would have second thoughts about firing missiles over Hokkaido.
3
North Korea is ... and always has been a puppet of China.
It is a mystery to me why Americans willingly allow our leadership and media to tell us , "China is our ally and will work with us to restrain Kim Jong Un". Nonsense.
North Korea launches missiles because China orders them to launch missiles. These launches help China assess the strengths and weaknesses of the US Missile Defense System. They also test the strength of Japan-US relations.(Will Japan trust US to defend? or does Japan see better security in cutting a deal with China?).
The Power Play is between China-US-Russia.
If we were to draw and quarter North Korea....which is the inevitable outcome......it may well be in three pieces, not the traditional four.
Russia might seek to extend its control down the coast of NK, cutting China off from the Sea of Japan.
China will be faced down and allowed to simply annex the western half of NK.
South Korea will absorb the Eastern Half of NK...........
This can only be accomplished after USA relinquishes some control in the South China Sea.......the other flashpoint in Asia.
Japan and South Korea have complied with international law, and remain nuclear free.
But North Korea and its allies, China and Russia, have a double standard -- it is "OK" to let North Korea have nuclear weapons.
Maybe it is time to let South Korea and Japan have nuclear weapons too.
Given the advanced technology capabilities of Japan and South Korea, I am sure they could build very powerful and precise weapons very quickly. Along the way, someone will lace Kim Jung-in with radioactive tracers that can lead drones directly to his face.
1
This might be the perfect time to eliminate ALL nuclear weapons on the planet.
1
I am wondering whether there is some truth in the notion that rational minds attribute similar rationality to others. Like we assumed Russians will not want to self-destruct and temper their paranoia about a western takeover. We are now assuming that the N. Korean cult has: (a) very strategically acted in everything it has done, and (b) tested their weapons based on some strategic imperative.
If this and other assumptions or rationality are correct, maybe sanctions will work. There are two issues, however, of concern.
First off, China has zero interest in solving any problem. If the west is engaged and spending resources on dealing with N. Korea peacefully, so much the better for them. Second, maybe the dear leader is plain nuts.
History is filled with sociopaths of all stripes; Saddam, the original Khomeni, Pol Pot etc. Nothing gets through to them; they need to be eliminated by an external force, because they have eliminated all possible internal threats.
Mr. Abe's predicament is complex and horrifying. Japanese people kidnapped without consequences in monstrously wrong. Sending missiles over their land is beyond the pale.
The fear that N. Korea will do this and that, and destroy S. Korea, is paralyzing us. How do we know that? What in the N. Korean arsenal works? Have we zero pre-emptive options? Concerted effort is meaningless if it does not remove the cult by force; else we are just kicking the can down the road.
Kalidan
2
Mr Abe, you should be aware that the "entire international community" no longer includes the United States. America first.
Kim Jong-Un is taunting the Japanese. Where is your great ally, your protector -- the United States? Has China condoned this remarkably aggressive action to highlight American impotence? Is China attempting to cleave Japan away from the US orbit and onto developing a more powerful military local presence that is far weaker than Japan's current arrangement with the US with their combined force?
Hopefully Sir, you are sending this same letter to the Chinese. The feckless president of this country is not fit to answer, nor respond to the imminent threat both your country and mine now faces. The Chinese hold the keys to the kingdom. Russia is merely a small time player, but for the illegal goods crossing the N.K.'s and Russian border. Discuss this with the Chinese, please.
China can end this tomorrow. Make a deal with the DPRK, a) permit China to enter and take control of the nuclear sites b) this the creates the buffer China wants with South Korea as w/o the nukes, we are back to the situation before DPRK had the capability.
Doing nothing is bad for China as their SK buffer and world stability could collapse.
In case you haven't noticed, the current US President is deranged. You can kiss up to him all you want, but you can't trust him or his judgement. For the time being, America and the world are left to hope that one of "his generals" grabs the tiller when it matters.
The whole North Korean nuclear fiasco has a similar Iranian ring.Where leaders of the free world turned a blind eye & convinced themselves they could trust North Korea to abide by their agreement to put aside their nuclear ambitions.
It seems the human species never learns from History, & are destined to make the same mistakes over & over again.
1
If America would stop threatening NK then it would not have a reason to demonstrate it's 'nuclear capability' - which it cannot afford in the first place. This OpEd from Abe is a lot of pro-USA propaganda. The NK regime is interested in one thing and one thing only: perpetuation of it's own power over... NK. Want NK to fade into irrelevance? Stop with the war games and the threats. It's as simple as that.
3
We the American people are with you Mr Abe.
We hope that our fake president lives up to what American stands for and rally global community to solve this menace.
But his TRex is destroying our state department to do precisely opposite.
Thank you for leading by talking and making your case logically, unless our leader.
Part II/II: Time for nasty ambiguous talk is over indeed, and no further time must be given to the criminals in Pyongyang...to get his ICBMs ready targeting US mainland...and hence nullifying any Thesis of a "suicidal attack".
Again, seen from a distance, today scenario appears to have many elements in common with Cuba 1962. Let us imagine for a short second, what would have happened if Cuba would have fired two rockets - flying over the territory of Florida...
Time is up to go and stop the evil - before it is too late.
2
A concerted effort from the international community is necessary to contain this regime. I don't think anyone wants war. However, remember who sits in the White House, a dimwit, narcissist weathervane who only sees in North Korea a chance to advance his ratings. Watch for the UN "speech" tomorrow. Japan, Russia and China need to lead the international community along with Europe. Forget about Trump, he is useless. If you let him and the NK leader have their way, we may be all dead next week.
Is it possible that the proud nations of US and Japan sink so low to elect as the leaders somebody like Trump and Shinzo Abe?!
I stopped reading his op-ed after the first paragraph: “The whole world confronts an unprecedented threat from North Korea. On Sept. 3, the regime carried out a reprehensible nuclear test. Last week, it launched a ballistic missile over my country, Japan, only two weeks after a similar test. By repeatedly testing missiles — in violation of UN resolutions — Pyongyang has shown its reach now extends to the US and Europe.”
Sir, we don’t live in an apartheid system! We have the laws that apply to the every nation of this world. If the American, Russian, Chinese, British, French, Israeli, Pakistani or Indian nuclear bombs and missiles are not the threat to this world, then neither the North Korean ones are!
Japan and South Korea are the direct threat to international peace and stability. Those two countries host the foreign military bases, not the North Korea...
When you have the foreign military bases right across your border and just a temporary cease fire in place over the last 6 decades, you are obliged to make the steps to protect your nation.
It’s the UN fault to fail implementing the permanent peace on the Korean Peninsula and reunite the Korean people into a single country long ago.
Don’t blame a single man for such a colossal international failure but the UN!
For God’s sake, that kiddo wasn’t even born when the conflict started!
2
It may very well be that Kim has taken the measure of Trump and decided that he is a gutless blowhard who can be absolutely depended on to do the exact opposite of whatever he says.
Where he might have come up with this screwball idea in the first place puzzles me.
1
Shinzo Abe is the wrong messenger from the wrong nation calling for international solidarity regarding North Korea.
Korea used to be a colony of the Japanese Empire. The Japanese Navy defeated the Russian Navy in a war at the turn of the last century. During the Chinese People's War against Japanese Aggression aka World War II the Japanese Empire killed 30 million Chinese which was by far the deadliest holocaust of World War II. America's entry into World War II began with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and ended with Japan's unconditional surrender in Tokyo Bay.
Japan has more weapons grade nuclear material than any nation without nuclear weapons. While North Korea is a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation and aspires to have nuclear weapons, Israel, India and Pakistan are not parties to the NPT and have nukes. And between them America and Russia have roughly 96% of nuclear weapons. The nightmare scenario is Japan and Germany with nuclear weapons.
While nuclear proliferation is the threat to world security, North Korea's Kim Jong Un reasonably and rationally wants nuclear weapons in order to not end up like Saddam Hussein and Moammar Qaddafi. Moreover North and South Korea have a single ethnic sectarian history divided by a socioeconomic political civil war along with the international values and interests of China, Russia and America.
4
There are no territorial disputes between North Korea and Japan, unlike between China and Japan, or between India and Pakistan. There are no trade disputes between the two countries either, probably because there isn’t that much trade to speak of in the first place. Furthermore, Japan was not a belligerent party to the Korean War; so (apart from Japan’s colonial sins which predate it) there shouldn’t be any grudge element. Thus, there is no reason for one country to attack the other except that Japan is a host to many American military bases, which North Korea, rightly or wrongly, feels threaten them. I’m not saying US-Japan military alliance is bad for Japan across the board, but there are some obvious downsides to it; and this is one of them. Over long-term, we may wish to opt out of the alliance, but at this juncture, it’s too late for Japan to play Swiss. Mr. Abe is only making things worse by aligning ever closer to the US, thereby further inflaming North Korea’s paranoia.
8
You are closer to this than I, so I defer to your understanding of the Japanese perspective. However, the perspective of older Koreans is still tainted with hostility toward Japan, counting backward from World War II. My father, who was 17 in 1945, harbored tremendous resentment toward the Japanese. My mother simply refused to discuss that part of her life. Now take that generation's anger and incubate it in a society as closed and suffocating as North Korea. While I agree that the alliance with the U.S. may not help the healing process, I disagree that Japan is not a beneficiary of the U.S.'s protection.
The options are stark:
1. Fight Korea now, while they have few nuclear weapons and cannot reach the United States.
2. Fight Korea later, when they have more nuclear weapons and can reach the United States.
3. Either way, China wins.
3
"3. Either way, China wins."
No, quite the opposite. When the US and its allies strike N.Korea, it will be all over in a matter of weeks.
Any intervention by China would result in the US seizing the artificial islands as well as sending every Chinese vessel to the bottom of the sea.
If China instead sits on its hands and watches it's only military ally be destroyed, their expansion in Asia will immediately cease and they will return to their proper position as a second-rate regional power for generations.
Lose-lose for China.
China doesn't win if Japan develops nuclear weapons and that seems certain to happen Mot experts believe it would take Japan six months at best unless, of course they've done it in secret already. What then President Xi?
It is my opinion that most countries that develop nukes do so to prevent being attacked. If you are a country like Iran who supposedly gave them but can quickly race to develop them it is the same formula. To prevent attack. Japan has been living in protective environment for many years. It is time for them to realize that they need the protection also. And so goes s Korea. N Korea will never give them up so this part of the world must live under the rules of madd. Mutual assured deterrence and destruction. One thing is clear, china is playing both ends against each other. China talks the talk but does not walk the walk. In fact china is by far the larger threat. It has been using an economic Trojan horse for years.
5
When are we going to get real about this whole thing? North Korea isn't going to send a nuke to Guam or Japan. North Korea wants to remain of this earth and all of their bravado is to maintain their regime. They have seen what happened to the leaders of Iraq and Libya because they lacked a nuclear hole card. With Trump threatening them with annihilation like the world has never seen if you were in their place what would you do? We like to portray North Korea as suicidal when in reality they are terrified. Anyone with any kind of sense knows a cornered opponent is the most dangerous and unpredictable. Do we really think we can starve them into submission? Since neither leader seems to have the wisdom to know this brinksmanship they are playing is not a game it is time for the adults on both sides to get involved. Trump and Kim act like they are playing a poker game and neither one seems to know they are both holding losing hands.These two guys daring each other to knock a chip of each other's shoulder is not a game because millions of lives are at stake.
36
Take a second and imagine how you would feel about a highly aggressive neighboring nation calling for your nation to be "sunken into the sea". Then imagine that you just dropped your children off at school and see on the news that a missile has just been launched and is heading your way. This is the terror that Japan lives under every moment today. North Korean missile tests over Japanese sovereign territory are becoming almost a weekly occurrence.
How would Russia, China, or the U.S react to a missile fly by such as this? Abe and the Japanese populace should be commended over how patient they have been over these years of failed diplomacy and negotiation. A nuclear detonation such as the hydrogen bomb that North Korea just tested, would take out almost the entire island of Honshu. That's all of the major Japanese cities of Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya... This is an existential threat the Japanese face at their doorstep. Negotiations HAVE already failed countless times. All options MUST be on the table. If not, you might find that the next time you turn on the news it might be a missile headed for Honolulu or San Francisco. Time is running out.
30
The inconvenient truth is that North Korea - even if starved by sanctions - will not give up its nuclear program and missiles.
Not to put too fine a point on it, the choice is a stark one: Engage North Korea militarily or learn to live with North Korea having ICBM's and thermonuclear weapons.
At this point there is nothing that can be offered to Kim to denuclearize, and it would be foolish to think that there is given the history, rhetoric and character of Kim and those who permit him to remain in power. So far, Kim's nuclear gambit has paid the dividends he expects; all the big players are paying attention, The question is, what is an acceptable outcome and cost, and for whom?
Japan could continue to increase the number of anti-missile defences, and Japan could also go nuclear. (To be clear, Japan has the means to very quickly develop thermonuclear weapons and delivery systems,) But what would that do? Would it enhance security or because of fast delivery times make the possibility of a nuclear war by error more likely?
It is a confounding question that may require a miscalculation by North Korea with regard to a nuclear test that results in a very significant fallout breach. Were that to occur, and some of that spill onto Russia or China, the will for change may suddenly emerge. But short of that, I do not think it reasonable to expect North Korea to agree to denuclearization.
6
Here on the West Coast, a little inland, in an area which is dedicated to take over the nations telecommunications in the event of a nuclear attack which downs all other telecommunication networks, a citizen who reads the news about on the hour, on the internet worries deeply for Japan, Guam, South Korea, and the United States.
Every Sunday North Korea's young leader performs another act of extreme aggression. This young man uses money given to North Korea for trade and contract to advance its extortionistic demands and threats to destroy whole nations. Every North Korean Monday morning is my disturbing Sunday night.
I cannot speak for other Americans but I can tell you those who were raised during the 1950s through the 1970s are acutely aware of the consequences of nuclear war. At the very tail end of the Baby Boomer generation, individuals like me, had all the particulars of nuclear war instilled into them, every single public school day of the school year.
This kid running North Korea does not know anything about human suffering or kindness. He has been raised to be a killer.
I would never have trusted North Korea with any contract.
6
And just wait till Iran gets their, " negotiated " nukes.....
Have the sanctions that have been in place over years just pretend but now we're all serious?
So that's why they didn't listen and built nuclear weapons. Because the U.N. was only playing then - but now it's real sanctions you're talking about - which will of course work - because it's not pretend anymore.
Please.
I notice, with some distress, the number of comments here which diminish Mr. Abe's position or, worse, apologize for Mr. Kim's. I don't know the right action in North Korea--I do not presume to possess such wisdom, nor do I lightly take any position which takes us further toward armed conflict--but I do believe that the PDRK is a dangerous and dishonorable regime, and that the world must take the strongest possible action to contain or eliminate it.
7
If Japan and South Korea do not wish to end up as cowed, shivering vassals of Kim's North Korea, then they must grow up and match North Korea in military striking power, including nuclear tipped missiles. They both have that capability, far more than does impoverished North Korea.
China and Russia have ended their need to provide a protective nuclear umbrella over Kim by helping and encouraging him to go nuclear. That changes the whole set of rules that govern realpolitik. The US now has no choice but to follow suit and insist that Japan and South Korea arm themselves with help on the QT from the US. Tit for tat! The other option is for South Korea and Japan to face a future as shivering vassals of Kim. The choice is theirs to make.
4
Shinzo Abe's description of the problem is accurate, and he has a well thought out plan of action that is probably our best chance to avoid war with North Korea.
3
Why is the simple proposal of investing all of our interests, military and otherwise, into an international war against all- yes all- nuclear weapons in the world somehow unthinkable?
No more anywhere. Not here, or Russia, France, Great Britain....
We somehow managed to kill off millions of human beings during WW2 without the aide of nuclear weapons. Conventional weapons are more than adequate, and that industry employs more people, without the obvious threat of an apocalypse.
How can humanity, so crazy and impassioned, keep playing with the bomb?
How can we, after practical consideration, really think that it will never eventually be used? And once it gets stared...
1
How might you enforce such a thing? What if North Korea were the only nation not to go along?
1
Sanctions will not work with NoKo. Sanctions harm the population as a whole and only work when the general population has some influence over its government.
In NoKo the leadership cares not one twit about the well being of its citizens. They only care about staying in power. More starvation or other shartages will be a small price to pay. Of course those in leadership positions will not suffer from the sanctions at all.
I'm afraid military force will eventually be needed. It's the only thing they understand.
1
We would be wise to heed Prime Minister's words.
We should also take note of how the Kim dynasty treats its own citizens, and as Mr. Abe points out, their disregard for international law.
The threat is now. We should make no excuses for Kim. Only concerted pressure will work.
It is clear that his murderous intentions are unbounded
2
Solidarity?
Explain to me why we find this regime tolerable, and are openly defending their right to so oppress the Korean people who happen to live in the North ? That our policy is to leave the regime in place?
Perhaps it's useful to revisit President Reagan's words on the Berlin Wall. Search and replace North Korea for East Berlin:
"Behind me stands a wall that encircles the free sectors of this city, part of a vast system of barriers that divides the entire continent of Europe. From the Baltic, south, those barriers cut across Germany in a gash of barbed wire, concrete, dog runs, and guard towers. Farther south, there may be no visible, no obvious wall. But there remain armed guards and checkpoints all the same--still a restriction on the right to travel, still an instrument to impose upon ordinary men and women the will of a totalitarian state. Yet it is here in Berlin where the wall emerges most clearly; here, cutting across your city, where the news photo and the television screen have imprinted this brutal division of a continent upon the mind of the world. Standing before the Brandenburg Gate, every man is a German, separated from his fellow men. Every man is a Berliner, forced to look upon a scar.
1
I empathize with the Japanese Prime Minister. No nation should have to tolerate threats of its imminent destruction from a neighboring country. However, the North Koreans have been under that threat from the United States for decades. Further, North Korea has the founding legacy of surviving a three year carpet bombing with napalm by the United States. National memory is constructed around the idea that they, a very small impoverished country survived something approximating total war against the world's most powerful nation-state. Two million North Koreans died during that war out of a population of nine million. Do the math, they lost more than twenty percent of their population in the early 1950s. That would be the contemporary equivalent of a war fought in the continental United States that destroyed every city and killed more than sixty million people. Remember, this doesn't include the wounded or the psychological damage from such a conflict.
So the North Koreans have a small nuclear deterrent and threaten their former colonial occupiers the Japanese with it. But let us put this in perspective. They believe they survived a holocaust in their founding. They have also endured generations of political and economic isolation and a devastating famine in the 1990s. Apparently, they aren't going to back down and they think their nuclear arsenal is a rational response to a dangerous hostile external environment.
What to do? Chill out a bit. Think before we bomb.
2
You fail to mention that North Korea invaded South Korea.
I don't accepts those numbers but without that fact you would think what happened to North Korea was a Holocaust in their founding.
They could have stopped that war from continuing by just agreeing to a peace agreement and there would be no fighting.
If there was a "Holocaust" it's because they gave the U.N. very little choice
when they chose to invade North Korea.
North Korea was therefore never under a threat of imminent destruction.
It was South Korea that was threatened with that when North Korea chose to invade them.
.
We know there is little defense possible against a suicide bomber. It seems to come down to whether or not Kim Jong-Un is of the suicide bomber variety, because that is surely what he would be were he ever to launch an attack against anyone within his reach.
He seems to enjoy presiding over these missile tests, with his binoculars and the old generals around him. Maybe he even has a family life, people he cares about, people who depend on him. If that's the case, maybe he doesn't fit the profile of someone who feels they have nothing to live for. Let's hope.
1
The nationalist prime minister Abe may lead Japan to doom with gingoistic talk just as Hirohito led it to utter destruction eight decades ago. Japanese populace should be wary of the this fast talking politician for fear that japan may be the only country nuclear bombed twice. The next one would be every bit as devastating as the calamitous end to the WWII.
It may be satisfying for Abe and his supporters to trash talk Korea but the math is unforgiving; there are more people living in Tokyo alone than in all of northern half of Korea. Even the notoriously inaccurate thermonuclear enhanced Korean missiles can take the daylight out of the residents of a few mega cities in Japan. In fact, the defense of Korea depends not on its ability to bomb Los Angeles, but to inflict fear and pain on everyday Japanese. Kim ordered mass production of solid fuel based medium range missiles earlier this year and they are perfectly suited for attacking Tokyo or Osaka - not Seoul or Guam.
Korea's national wealth and GDP is minuscule compared to Japan's. In another words, Korea - unlike the oil rich Iran -has very little to lose in a major conflict compared to any of its neighbors.
Japanese leadership and citizenly would be well advised to look at the big picture and bring Korea to its side in japan's looming conflict with china. Having abducted and enslaved hundreds of thousands of Koreans and others during the war, Japan should drop its animus toward Korea for abducting a few of its kinfolks
3
Much as we dislike the Kim's regime, Shinto Abe try to deceive the public by claiming NK is endangering Japan. The previous two flights over Hokkaido is the safest passage, unpopulated area and in outer space, thus NK break no international law.
NK will only become a threat to Japan if NK see US and Japan use Japanese soil to launch attack against her.
Does anybody seriously think NK will do preemptive attack on US or Japan? NK ICBM test whether we like it or not is an insurance guarantee to prevent US posing an existential threat to his regime.
Abe should just stay calm and work with US quietly instead of inflaming N Korea as a 'us against them' solidarity approach. This will only force Kim to make Japan a top priority target if war should happen.
Like the calm in the eye of the hurricane, US troops in S Korea will be much safer than those in Japan and Guam as N Korea loath to attack his own countrymen.
1
As an expatriate businessman living and working in China and Japan for 25 years or so I've followed the many failed attempts to resolve the Korean issue. And I am cognizant of the North Korean propensity to negotiate in bad faith and to renege on agreed upon commitments. So please understand that I am not naive in making the following suggestions. Here are a few things I would do none of which are "easy" - all of which may offer small but significant steps toward peaceful resolution of a decades old problem:
1. Elevate the dialogue with North Korea to a UN level initiative supported by China, Russia, Japan, the US, and South Korea;
2. Do not forfeit the US right to act unilaterally in its own interests;
3. Be tough with the brutal North Korean dictatorship;
4. Create a 30 year? national development plan for the North Korean economy, including a) milestones, b) incentives to perform to agreed objectives and punitive measures to combat backsliding and c) monitoring by a UN led commission of the nations mentioned in #1 above;
5. Include the World Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Development Bank as key co-partners in financing development and creation of a prioritization of objectives particularly with regard to national infrastructure;
6. Be willing to invest billions of dollars over time based on deliverables achieved over time; and
7. Avoid a costly (billions of dollars) and destructive war.
As John Lennon sang, "...Give peace a chance..."
9
What a conundrum. Thank you for sharing Mr. Abe but I can't help but to feel how fruitless this effort of coming together to stop North Korea will be. As long as you are with the US and the US uses Japan as a military base with troops stationed you will be in the cross hairs of North Korea. You rely 100% on the US for your defense because North Korea is nuclear armed and your country is not. War with Nuclear weapons is unthinkable and nobody really knows how true that is better than Japan.
I offer no wisdom. The time to challenge North Korea was before they became a nuclear power. There really isn't much we can do now because military options are off the table. Good luck getting Mr. Kim to give up anything just because his people are starving to death by the millions. He has already shown that tactic will not bear fruit. It is hard to see a good way out of this for you and Japan but in conclusion I agree with your approach. The only option available is to try to get the rest of the security council members to care enough to starve the whole country to death regardless of how heartless that is. If the regime can be made to feel truly desperate maybe realistic international talks can begin. I'm not holding my breath...
Baloney.
North Korea wants to pressure the US to sit down and negotiate a final peace settlement to the Korea War. Kim Juog-Un is a dictator but he is not a madman by any means. He has no intention of initiating a nuclear conflict, which would be suicidal, and every intention of retaliating against an attack from the US. Probably the US has no intention to attack North Korea, but it has a lot of troops and weapons in South Korea.
Sanctions are economic warfare and serve no purpose in resolving the tension on the Korean peninsula. In fact, sanctions strengthen Kim Jong-Un's popularity because they confirm that the US is out to get North Korea.
To break the vicious cycle of escalating saber-rattling, one side has to make a concession. The US is vastly more powerful than North Korea and can therefore make a concession (sit down at the negotiating table for peace talks) without losing face or losing strategic position.
Who knows, maybe the Great Negotiator in Chief will actually get this done. I hope so, with all my heart.
4
Welcome to Mr. Abe. We stand with him.
4
Here is a good deal for all (except Kim):
1) Japan and US support a China-friendly solution to island dispute in South China Sea. This deal should throw in some favorable treatment/perks to Vietnam and the Philippines.
2) Point 1 will be dependent on rigorous Chinese boycott of Kim regime.
2
Although Mr. Abe did not mention China as North Korea's supplier by name for obvious reasons, the Chinese should take note. Mr. Abe must protect his country from an attack by North Korea or nuclear blackmail. If in fact North Korea's action results in a nuclear armed Japan, China will regret not reigning in Mr. Kim sooner.
3
With all due deference to your position - I completely disagree...
Watching the game from the bleacher seats - vs your luxury skybox view - there's no bigger cause of systemic endless conflict around the globe, than national borders that don't correspond to ethnic borders...
The US melting-pot has been exceptional - as the Europeans are finding out for themselves...
The Chinese grind slowly but surely to consolidate their island states - building new ones where it suits their purposes...
Meanwhile, North Korea suits their purposes splendidly - overshadowing their global ascent, and the concerns it might otherwise cause...
Re-unite Korea, as Germany - and Vietnam - were re-united...
And get on with things...
2
The sanctions unfortunately are not strong enough, and China is the weak link in the chain for refusing to countenance a full embargo on oil. (China has the longest land border with North Korea and most supplies going in cross there). The world needs, first, more solidarity to nudge China towards agreeing to a credible threat of truly effective sanctions (and to achieve that solidarity a deal-maker with actual diplomatic talent and experience -unlike the current US president). The US Congress needs to enforce its Constitutional bans on emoluments, and thereby accelerate liberation from its time bomb disaster of a president, and it and the rest of the world need to put pressure on China and Russia to stop impeding progress towards defusing the ticking bomb of North Korea.
5
PartI/II: Thank you Prime Minister for sharing your concerns and conclusions: Seen from Europe (with many years of doing Business and living in Asia) I would like to add only two critical observations here: 1) China and Russia have so far not only tolerated NK's violation of all UN resolutions, they actually sponsor the Regime to contribute to their game at pushing back the US influence in the Region. Both Powers, China and Russia, will continue to ally with the deadly Kim Regime, as long as they do not fear to get the opposite out of it, with a much stronger US presence in Japan, SK, and the East-Pacific Region. The so far played Theater at the UN SC has to end and both sponsors of the criminal Need to know, their game will not add up to their aims. 2) To end the stalemate, JP, SK and the US may bring two solid pieces to a negotiation table: A white Piece of Paper showing the benefits of a peace treaty, non-attacking warranties, economic cooperation and aid, and a perspective with a stepwise withdrawal of US forces from the Korean Peninsula. The other Piece of Paper should be kept dark and only show a simple number indicating a very nearby day as solid and credible ultimatum to make a decision. Finally, the SK government would have to prepare its Seoul-Area citizens to take an extended weekend outside the city for that exact same day of the ultimatum and at least 30miles south of the capital.
4
Good article. The obvious next step is for Japan and the United States and their allies to sanction those countries trading with North Korea, in particular providing North Korea in the face of sanctions with the materials and technology for its nuclear programme. The problem is that, although this may be doable in some cases, in other cases America's profligate deficits would come home to roost.
2
Abe and many others still don't get it. It wasn't that the N.Korean leadership, "ignored," agreements. The agreements and subsequent violations were all carefully crafted according to a long term plan. Until we understand that we will never effectively deal with the threat they pose.
2
What troubles me most is Abe's declaration "I firmly support the United States position that all options are on the table", which contradicts Article Nine and the preamble of the constitution of Japan (which prohibits the government from exercising the right of belligerency) and which amounts to offering millions of Japanese people as a wager for maintaining the US hegemony if necessary. (Some people, including Abe, argue that the constitution was imposed by the US and is thus a constraint we have to overcome, ignoring the fact it has been kept alive to this day.) There are indeed many options for us the Japanese to explore for keeping peace in the Far East if we are ready to make concessions. We could make even make a sacrifice economically and emotionally, which would be nothing comparable with what we sustained at WWII.
6
Unfortunately, the alliances among North Korea, China and Russia are in fact downplayed. There is no chance that China and Russia will ever fully cooperate (although they give great lip service) with the rigorous enforcement of sanctions. It's naive and dangerous to think that North Korean technology simply exploded forward. For example, the miniaturization of a nuclear device for implantation in a warhead appears with swift advance: does anyone think that know-how was not supplied by one or both of its allies? ". . . foreign-made parts have been used in North Korea's ballistic missiles: is the tip of the iceberg.
With trade routes still open, and with no foolproof way to monitor, the alternate danger here is sales: wait until ISIS and Kim Jung Un sit down for some "trade" talks . . .
5
What is Mr. Abe really saying here? More international sanctions is the only way though he knows it hasn't helped given Pyongyang's repeated violations? Mr. Abe is a nationalist yearning for the long lost glory of the Japanese empire despite its heinous crimes against the people of Korea and Asia. He has changed the Japanese constitution to arm itself in the name of self protection. That Japan is in direct threat by Pyongyang cannot be ignored, but the Japanese must do everything to stop any escalation of armed conflict along with South Korea even if it means repeating past means. There is no other option.
3
I favor threatening China with a joint US-Japan ballistic missile shield if China does not get its client state to relent to international pressure and dismantle its weapons programs. If South Korea would be interested in participating in this program, then they should also be invited to join. Our economies are among the most advanced in the world, and we ought to be able to develop and deploy weapons systems capable of eliminating any North Korean missile threat.
China must be made to understand that the United States will not oppose a military buildup by South Korea or a re-militarized Japan if it does not take concrete steps to rein in North Korea.
If North Korea refuses to accept a bargain that would grant it international legitimacy in return for an end to weapons programs, then the only option the US and our allies have is to take steps to negate the North Korean arsenal. We can do that a massive investment in ballistic missile defense. If China and Russia do not like that, then it's up to them to do something about the recklessness of the North Korean government they protect.
North Korea does everything at China's instruction. If the Chinese continue to attempt to bully their neighbors in Asia through their North Korean proxy then it's high time America started to prepare for a future conflict with China. The Chinese leadership must be made to understand that we will not abandon the democracies in Asia, no matter what.
2
The threat of artillery attacks on Seoul and missile strikes on Tokyo have successfully deterred against U.S. military intervention to halt the North's nuclear weapons program. But despite the effectiveness of these deterrents, the North is obsessed with acquiring the ability to launch nuclear attacks on the U.S. homeland.
The question is: what exactly does the North seek to gain by this? The optimistic answer is that they simply want to enhance their own power of deterrence, and once they have achieved that, they will be content with the status quo of mutually assured destruction. The pessimistic answer is that they are actively planning to execute aggressively offensive moves that would provoke a military response against a non-nuclear power, but not against a nuclear power.
What offensive moves might these be? There are lots of frightening possibilities: selling WMDs to terrorists and rogue nations around the world, demanding extortion money to stay them against destroying ships or airliners, attacking military assets, assasinating political figures, etc. The North has previously dabbled in all of these things. Will nuclear weapons embolden them to ramp these activities back up again?
We all know that going to war against North Korea right now would be utterly horrific. But nobody knows how much more horrific it might (or might not) be to live in a future where North Korea builds and distributes nuclear weapons at will. Odds are, we're going to find out.
2
North Korea poses a great threat to the Japanese economy.
Japan should seriously consider prudent safeguarding of key industries including IP, expertise, and manufacturing output,
I suggest placing more facilities in the USA far from missiles.
CT is a nice state, and we could use the jobs!
This also seems fair since the USA invests billions into maintainsing defenses and navies to defend Japan.
Protection comes at a price and it should be creating jobs in CT.
I think that would be too great a price to pay, the wall comes first.
Frankly China played the long game here to check-mate Japan, S. Korea, and by extension us.
Up until now, I figured matter of time, N. Korea folds into S. Korea, considering S. Korea's economic prowess. But no longer. There was a fascinating NY Times article on the long game N. Korea is playing and just as we used to recognize Taiwan as real Chinese government until one day Nixon showed up in China, and completely upended that policy, I won't be surprised something similar happening with N. Korea/ S. Korea.
For us to keep status-quo, as much as this may alarm folks here, we need to give nuclear weapons to S. Korea/ Japan, or some combination thereof.
That's the only way to counter China/ N. Korea, and actually push China to pull back on N. Korea. Until now, all China has done is talk while implicitly letting N. Korea develop weapons as this mad-man helps promote China's interest.
2
The time for talk is over, any intelligent person can see that all of our options have been depleted. The North does not seek peace, it seeks power and until we, and the rest of the world, understand that we will not be able to close the loop with North Korea, which in this case, inevitably means war.
Of course, no one wants this option, but the longer we wait the more difficult it will be in the more people will have to die.
Evacuate the Americans from South Korea and set up the Korean Peninsula is the new theater of war that it already is.
2
Does your user name then indicate that you are already heading to Korea to execute this inevitable war? Or are you just prepared for others to go. I wonder how we would finance a war in Asian when China holds so much of our debt, hopefully it won't raise taxes.
Axis of Evil speech in 2002
In all due respects, I would suggest that if the leaders in North Korea feel their regime is going to collapse, it is very likely they will take down other countries with them.
Isn't it about time to have dialogue. it is doubtful they would give up their nuclear weapons seeing what has happened to leaders of other countries who did and now seeing how we are trying to back out of the Agreement with Iran.
2
The viewpoint presents a succinct statement of Japan's position. However, it neglects Japan's reticence to become actively involved in the regional crisis. The Asian nation appears to be approaching a tipping point on the issue. The Japan-United States alliance is NOT ironclad. The Japanese must take appropriate action to defend THEIR nation. Good first steps to this national defence policy would be to amend the pacifist Constitution to provide for a freestanding military and implement a first strike missile capability. All nations should be under a "first duty" to provide security for their people. To assign this duty to a collateral provider is completely unacceptable, both to the Japanese and the people and military of the United States.
3
Japan, the U.S., The EU, and the rest of the civilized and peace-loving nations of the world need to place sustained diplomatic pressure on China to reign in her friend. Short of war, this is the best avenue for addressing the Pyongyang menace. It is not too late to do this.
2
Well not much new in this editorial. Calling up abductions carried out 30 years ago by Kim Jung Un's grandfather, is typical of East Asian politics. Mired in the past. Abe's own grandfather was of course also prime minister - during the Korean war. We could probably go a few more generations of leaders in both countries with no change of policies either side. Personally, and I live in Japan, I'd feel alot safer if Japan dropped the useless alliance with its supposed 'protector' the USA, ignore the Korean conflict, and took a neutral stance, like Switzerland. Let the brat leaders squabble in the sandbox by themselves, and just play somewhere else. We would no longer be a proxy target.
5
And in conjunction with the above, the United States could recalibrate its trade policy with Japan. The heavy imbalance of trade could be removed. Japan could comfortably take its new role as a "geriatric nation", in economic decline, positioned on a part of the planet under increasing tension.
2
Reading Mr. Abe's editorial and then the comments below and knowing what I do about the situation there is only one option really - And it is out of our hands to fully enact it: A total ban on Fossil Fuel to North Korea. And even with that, at this point, NK could ransom peace for oil. They could say they are will lob a nuke on Seoul if they don't get such and such amount of oil in such and such a time frame, etc. So even a total oil embargo is no absolute guarantee of success with these people. It's kind of like the terror groups - there may never be full success against them. Just attrition and not making it worse . . perhaps?
The situation is rather (FILL IN YOUR OWN WORD HERE)!
Sorry, but it is.
1
A clear, reasoned and compelling message.
Mr Abe is being diplomatic in not naming the foreign powers propping up North Korea.
I fear this problem is not one of a single rogue nation, but rather one between the world's former, current, and future superpowers.
1
There is no other solution than a military one.
Nothing else has worked and only bought time for them to rapidly develop the next version of the bomb.
Yes there will be a loss of life and it will not be pretty at all.
There could be one more solution, a couple of contiguous H bombs to knock out anything that moves in North Korea so that they do not have anything to respond with and there will be even greater loss of life.
Anyone who thinks there is a diplomatic solution is kidding themselves. They will eat grass and spit in Chinese leaders face but not give up their nuclear weapons...
Time has already run out.
4
A military solution could easily lead to WW III, at least absent some prior understanding with China and Russia. (If you don't believe this, look at a map and see who NK's northern neighbors are; consider also how WW I started).
There doesn't seem to be any more viable peaceful options left other than accepting North Korea as a nuclear power. Let's think about that for a moment. China, Russia, the US, Great Britain, France, India, and Pakistan have nuclear weapons. Israel is an undeclared nuclear power in the middle east that sees nuclear weapons as a guarantor of its existence.
Why does North Korea have nuclear weapons? I imagine that they view them as a guarantor of their existence as well. Now let's look at the reality of having nuclear weapons. If North Korea uses them FIRST on ANYBODY, it will be the end of the North Korean regime. The massive retaliation will be total and complete. I believe the leaders of North Korea are rational people. They will huff and puff and threaten the wildest ungodly firestorm ever seen in order to get their way. But in the end they will settle for a lot less or get nothing at all. I believe what they really want is an ironclad assurance that there will be NO forceful reunification of the Korean peninsula. So what the world needs to do is replace the current UN armistice with a truly lasting peace treaty that guarantees the existence of both North and South Korea. The two Korea's need to sit down and talk to each other more so now than ever before. The current state of affairs on the 38th parallel needs to change in order for both halves to survive.
9
This is good thinking, appreciate. In fact, the nuclear proliferation we see throughout the planet is our own doing . . . and now we must live with it. Not a matter of trying to deny that it can be parsed out to only those we find suitable. Technology doesn't work that way - just a matter of time. We must manage the monster we have created. China could bear a major responsibility here, it would seem. Would be good for their image and a huge benefit for all concerned. They need to step up.
1
It is important to remember when that they're development to become a nuclear power has been far more aggressive, provocative, and lawless compared to any other country that became a nuclear power. They have launched missiles repeatedly over a sovereign nation's airspace. They have threatened all out nuclear war against the United States. No other nuclear power was ever so reckless and irresponsible.
The world, in particular China and Russia, needs to realize that a belligerent North Korea with nuclear weapons is a long term threat to peace, stability, and development in North East Asia and the world.
1
The Chinese demand is loud and clear, it has now been articulated in an editorial today in Global Times, their English mouthpiece, which is denuclearization of Korean peninsula. Which in real terms means, USA get out of S Korea.
They have also incidcated in the same editorial, that N Korea is not just a threat to USA, but a global threat. Which means if US attacks, any nation, S Korea, Japan or any other US ally would be vulnerable.
We have a President whose verbiage leads over real action. And acute economic vulnerability which makes it difficult to call spade a spade in this proxy play. In a way, the original agenda of candidate Trump, to get out of Kora and Japan, and letting them nuclearize if they opt to, is what China seeks now. China will most propbably thereafter find ways to coerce Japan and S Korea to submission and enforce they never go nuclear.
China is also probably against Korean unification, which it calls as a South Korean agenda, since it will lose leverage in Asia.
Finding a way out of this difficult challenge with direct consequence and not just "some sphere of influence", has reached a stage where the nuclear can cannot be kicked further down the road. Will President Trump be able to do to China what President Reagan did to USSR? If he has a credible plan, then hopefully it shall receive bipartisan support.
1
Thank you Prime Minister Abe for this important message and your steadfast leadership in standing up against the irresponsible and dangerous North Korea regime.
I would recommend that the U.N. Security Council impose the very same sanctions on countries that violate Resolution 2375 by trading with North Korea.
In addition, the list of violators should be made know to all consumers worldwide so we can boycott products made in their counties and avoid all travel to the lands.
2
All options are on the table. Seriously?
Solidarity against the North Korean threat is indeed the only way. I believe achieving this option is called diplomacy. It starts by convincing the North Korean providers of goods and technology to cease their tacit support so that, indeed, sanctions are effective. Anything else means death.
In the Korean peninsula truce, the South has won the peace and the North has succeeded with its war strategy. Only diplomacy, patience, and time are viable options to contain North-Korea, not trigger-itchy fingers.
1
Thank you, Mr. Prime Minister, for articulating so eloquently what all civilized nations already know. But fear not that anyone who doesn’t automatically welcome the prospect of a nuclear detonation above an American city (as opposed to merely welcoming American embarrassment from any source, which entertains almost EVERYONE else) doesn’t understand that we must stand united as a civilized world against a crazed little man with such an attractive coif.
Granted, the prospects of such a nuclear detonation above a Japanese city for the third time in that nation’s history are substantially more compelling in their likelihood than seeing an American city disappear, at least for the present, but we’re not about to abandon allies we’ve protected at our very substantial expense for over seventy years. Besides, if the little guy is willing to commit suicide by attacking Japan with a nuclear warhead, why would he stop there? Dead is dead.
You make excellent arguments, though, for NEVER lifting sanctions on North Korea. Why would rational counterparties to any multilateral agreements with Kim Jong-un believe for a moment that he would ever honor commitments he made to get sanctions lifted?
Sanctions must be kept very strong and strictly enforced. But, in the end, rational people who wish to effectively manage the threat from a nuclearized North Korea need to be asking not what does Kim want, but what does China want that is in our power to sensibly grant.
Shinzo Abe writes: "Statistics show that there are countries, mainly in Asia, that continue trading with North Korea; and for some, as recently as in 2016, their trade even exceeded that of the previous year." China is North Korea's main trading partner. That he can't even spell out its name, shows how fraught the Sino-Japanese relationship is.
It's most tragic that nationalist leaders like Shinzo Abe and Xi Jinping can't shed their hubris for the sake of stability. Even if national interests prevail, both leaders need to put themselves in each other's shoes and find common ground, reaching out to each other in times of crisis. They preside over the world's second and third largest economies in a region that has become increasingly volatile.
Abe clings to "the ironclad Japan-United States alliance," while marching "in lock step" with the US and South Korea. Unfortunately, Trump, a geopolitical novice, hasn't been helpful. Xi is reluctant to change the status quo in Pyonyang, for selfish reasons, hoping KIm Jong-un would one day come to his senses, and expecting the US and its allies to accept the nuclear threat from Pyongyang.
Abe, Trump and Xi need to reinvent themselves, if they really want to resolve the crisis on the Korean Peninsula.
11
It is time to begin a new and hopefully final chapter in the Korean War. The war has been in stalemate for over one-half century, but this does not mean it has lost its ferocity. North Korea's multi-generational behavior has shown it intends to do whatever is needed--including thermonuclear war--to claim victory and conquer the South.
If China chooses to ally itself again with the North, then a heavy price will be paid by all sides. But this is the hard reality of war.
A continued stalemate is nearing impossibility.
5
If this this is the hard truth here, and its looking ever more thus, then war is close to inevitable.
I used to be for living with NK nuclear capability like we do with so many other countries, but it does look like they might actually prefer war to peace.
My question is, do they prefer a nuclear war or a conventional one with nuclear as a last ditch effort if they are losing. That may however, be a distinction without a difference.
1
I think you got it reversed, its the US that wants North Korea to change its government to align with the US and South Korea. The US wants to end North Korea's harsh communist government and totally surrounds it with massive military power including some 30K troops with nuclear subs, carriers. With that setup why should North Korea worry? guess many here think North Korea should capitulate right? and follow US orders right John?. BTW - North Korea borders Russia and China so good luck with your, I guess, apparent war.
Thank you, Mr. Abe, for the kind of thoughtful leadership our own leaders should be emulating.
15
I suspect that some of the "Made in China" clothing entering the US might be made in North Korea.
4
Will Mr. Trump consider reopening negotiations for the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and not shut the door on China?
The Wikipedia entry to the abductions of Japanese:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_abductions_of_Japanese_citizens
6
Thanks Nancy. I read the summary and along with the 60 minutes interview with David Cornwall aka John LeCarre last night, the world looks distinctly more dangerous this morning.
1
The question that troubles me is whether Prime Minister Abe stands for peace. I have found this Prime Minister to be both needlessly forgetful of Japanese history and too militaristic. The evident unwillingness of the Prime Minister to work with China has been senseless.
28
The commenter's argument rests on an assumption: that China sees its best interests in ending the North's nuclear weapons program. It is an equally valid assumption that China sees its best interests in having the North's weapons program continue.
Perhaps China would be stricken with grief if Los Angeles was obliterated, but likely not.
11
To Johns reply- wouldn't a launch against LA be both instant suicide and probably intercepted?
Not to mention endangering their favorite American citizen, Dennis Rodman, who lives there.
Apologies for the gallows humor .
1
Alas, perhaps you would be stricken with grief if Seoul were obliterated, but likely not.
Frankly, one tires of Americans advocating wars thousands of miles away from their home, with millions of dead - the less white, the better - being considered acceptable losses, while bloviating about the "hard reality of war" that will affect only their soldiers.
25 million South Koreans in the greater Seoul area are not a pawn to what America thinks or thinks not acceptable.
History has also shown us how tight embargos work. When the US cut off oil and raw material from your country in 1940 you started WW2. What makes you think a desperate NK will not strike?
42
Thomas Renner is on shaky historical ground here. First, Japan had not "started WWII" in 1941. Japan had been in continuous major warfare against China since 1937, and had before the oil embargo killed hundreds of thousands of Chinese troops and millions of Chinese civilians. World War II in Europe had started in 1939, before the embargo. Second, Japan would have struck against Western holdings in the Pacific even without the oil embargo, just a little later and vastly better supplied with oil. If North Korea wants war, it will cause it regardless of whether sanctions increase.
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On the other hand it was Britain's blockade of German ports that brought WW I to an end , Germany surrendering with it's army still in the field.
It is way, way more complicated than that. Japan's aggression in China and then what was called Indo China led up to the well-telegraphed multilateral sanctions on Japan (the oil embargo you speak of started in mid-1941, not 1940).
I'm sure Mr. Abe is aware of the risk (much higher to Japan than to the US). The fact that he's willing to take it is admirable.
1
"North Korea’s actions are an outright challenge to the international community. "
For Kim Jong- Un, it is survival. "Gaddafi gave up the bomb and lost his head. Saddam was toppled because he did not have it". So kim Jong has all the reasons to fear the United States. Kim Jong Un knows that he cannot depend on China for too long for his survival. As long as he has his finger on the nuclear button his fear that the United States or South Korea might kill him is suddenly diminished. I do not seriously believe that his intention is to take over South Korea or attack the United States.At this stage China or no other country can convince him to give up nuclear weapons.Can international community community convince him that he can survive and keep his regime once he gives up the nukes? Even then is he going to believe?
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Evan Osnos at the New Yorker was unsure whether Kim wants to annex South Korea. Of course he'd be happy to take over should the regime somehow collapse (fat chance).
3
Actually, North Korea does NOT threaten the "international community." At all. North Korea threatens the US and its allies. That much is true. However, MOST of the "international community" is not worried at all about North Korea's madman leader and will not support the US, or North Korea, in any meaningful way. Most of the "international community" is much more worried about the madman who runs the US.
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"I do not seriously believe that his intention is to take over South Korea or attack the United States.At this stage China or no other country can convince him to give up nuclear weapons."
I'm so glad Mr. Kim has taken you into his confidence.
Wars rarely turn up due to an instantly urgent life or death situation. Rather, wars are deliberately started due to nations making contradicting assertions and failing to compromise. It often takes even decades for the assertions to escalate into threats - and eventually into wars. So Abe's claim for "dialogue won't work" is taking us dangerously closer to war. And through Abe's past records, it's obvious what his true intents are.
By Constitution, Japan is forbidden to maintain armed forces as it outlaws all wars. This is truly a noble constitution that Japanese people can rightfully boast to the world. Yet, Abe reinterprets the language and twists the spirit by proclaiming that “We do not forbid all wars, we can engage in wars of self-defense,” and “Our Self-Defense Forces are not armed forces with war potential.”
Abe has asserted that the overseas deployment of SDF is constitutional because they are deployed “only to non-combat zones,” and “only for supportive roles,” and “to regions where use of weapons has resulted in numerous casualties – but those are considered as clashes of forces, not combat.” Abe is busy playing word games in an effort to delude its people.
A constitution acts as checks and balances over a ruler’s authoritarian ego so not to cross the lines of fundamental rights of the people – like how it was violated in Japan during WW II. How can the we trust a ruler who insists on amending the Constitution to fit the needs of the ruler if it is in his way?
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"A constitution acts as checks and balances over a ruler’s authoritarian ego so not to cross the lines of fundamental rights of the people..."
Interesting. Have you read China's constitution? It enshrines freedom of speech, rule of law, and an independent judiciary. Yet Abe is the bad guy because he wants the world community to stop a madman?
Wow, just wow.
1
I am guessing Russia has provided materials and knowledge to North Korea for its nuclear and ballistic missile development. North Korea poses a serious threat to the entire world. Thank you for the opinion Prime Minister Abe and the update about North Korea abducting Japanese citizens.
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No guessing is required. The new powerful and (unlike North Korean attempts) reliable rocket engines come from Ukraine, specifically from a factory in Russian occupied Ukraine.
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India have a far more subtle part to play for NK sudden ICBM advancement. India was exposed late last year for helping NK with satellite technology which she profess as for civilian use.
The other biggest hint India is a big actor here is her massive secretive nuclear plant processing uranium in Charkalere near Bengalaru/Bangalore. The raw uranium need to come from somewhere and only NK can supply them to India in exchange for technology. This raw uranium will be part of the shell game India can play with the raw uranium she acquire from NSG countries to give a false impression she comply with IAEA inspection.
India can do so with countertrade and diplomatic pouch so it is impossible for US to detect this quid pro quo.
Yes I apologize, thank you Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for writing to Americans. They need more information, really.
Dear Abe-san,
What do you do when sanctions don't work?
This is a serious question.
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North Korea is a cancer on the world. And what do you do with cancer? You can try chemotherapy, or cutting off its blood supply, or cutting it out altogether. Chemotherapy, in whatever form that might take in this case, subjects the entire organism to toxic side effects. Cutting it out altogether is not an option, although with the help of China, regime change could be a possibility in the near future. The best alternative is severely reducing the blood supply, by way of strict economic sanctions, as Mr. Abe clearly states here.
No one wants a dire outcome for the Korean peninsula or the rest of the planet. If we are truly a global population, now is the time to unite.
If not now, when? If not us, then who will it be?
It must be us, and it must be now.
Or we are all lost.
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“I firmly support the United States position that all options are on the table.”
Mr. Abe:
This was a statement made by the U.S. president that was left open to interpretation. I sincerely hope you are not indicating that you would be amenable to direct military action against North Korea at this time? Surely, especially considering your geographical proximity to the Korean peninsula, as well as other nations in the immediate vicinity of North Korea, you would not be entertaining such a scenario at this juncture?
Dim-witted violence sociopaths are the "cancer" of the world. And they are leaders in many countries, including at least one of which is a western democratic power.
Besides the sanctions on trade, it is of utmost importance to deny North Korea access to 1) hard currency and 2) expertise. For this reason, all countries must immediately repatriate any visiting North Korean citizens, and prohibit and block any transfers of hard currency - including in diplomatic pouches.
As for North Koreans who do not wish to return, they must renounce their citizenship, and they too may not make remittances.
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North Korea is not going to stop its nuclear weapons program. It probably never intended to stop. Mr. Abe is probably correct. The situation has gone beyond talking. What are our choices.
1) The world could enact a massive freeze out of the North in hopes of bringing the regime to its knees. Hard to get all nations on board and could result in North Korea launching an attack in desperation or ransom. They already have the bomb and can deliver it with subspace missiles and planes.
2) We just get use to the idea and live with the rogue state as a nuclear power. They already have the bomb.
3) We launch an attack. The North would then respond with everything they had and we are off to a massive loss of life. They already have the bomb.
Our dear leader thinks there is a military option. There is only one. That would be an all out assault on North Korea. Anything less than that would cause them to launch their nukes and they would probably launch them no matter how small or large our attack is. Any military option would likely result in an all out war. That doesn't sound like much of an option.
The right will blame Obama the left will blame Bush II, the right will blame Clinton and then the left will blame Bush I. Maybe that's how North Korea gets away with doing whatever it wants. We just keep blaming ourselves. Trump fits right into the program.
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From the looks of current North Korea, the country has changed considerably from the time its people were starving due to sanctions. That was not less than a decade ago.
We have to as the world, use commerce and incentives to turn around this small minded "leader" to focus on the happiness of its people sans a nuclear bomb threat.
It's established history that N. Korea redoubled its nuclear (nucular?) ambitions after the "Axis of Evil" speech and went nuclear under Bush II.
How about 1 100 Megaton ICBM on Pyong Yang with only allies, plus Russia and China getting 10 minutes warning. That should do it.
"Statistics show that there are countries, mainly in Asia, that continue trading with North Korea..." Donald, three guesses which country he means...
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Not so quick. Russia takes more delight in the status quo than China. Russia likes NK as threat to us. China would probably do well with a united Korean peninsula as a trading power.