Why were two cranes left up with so much prior warning????????????
1
When this is over I hope the Times can look at the first 10 readers' picks and then give us a first try at a discussion of using science to make policy for areas subject to natural hazards.
The scientist makes a forecast - pick your time scale. A magnitude 8 earthquake is going to occur in San Francisco in the next 50 years. Storm surge is going to put parts of Tampa under 8 feet of water in the next 24 hours.
The people responsible for public safety of that area, San Francisco, Tampa, you name it, have to make public policy to reduce risk. How do you the scientist get through to those people and help them make policy?
Suppose those people have never taken an appropriate science course or have such beliefs as these. Humans were created by God. The earth was created 6000 years ago. All changes we experience are caused by god, not by us humans. I as a member of religion x am one of the chosen people and God will get me through when all the rest of you are killed off.
Name an American politician holding one or more of those beliefs. How will you get through to her?
Don't ask me. Most of the politicians I encounter here in my other country, Sweden, do not admit to holding any such thoughts.
Only in my America.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Dual US SE
The scientist makes a forecast - pick your time scale. A magnitude 8 earthquake is going to occur in San Francisco in the next 50 years. Storm surge is going to put parts of Tampa under 8 feet of water in the next 24 hours.
The people responsible for public safety of that area, San Francisco, Tampa, you name it, have to make public policy to reduce risk. How do you the scientist get through to those people and help them make policy?
Suppose those people have never taken an appropriate science course or have such beliefs as these. Humans were created by God. The earth was created 6000 years ago. All changes we experience are caused by god, not by us humans. I as a member of religion x am one of the chosen people and God will get me through when all the rest of you are killed off.
Name an American politician holding one or more of those beliefs. How will you get through to her?
Don't ask me. Most of the politicians I encounter here in my other country, Sweden, do not admit to holding any such thoughts.
Only in my America.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Dual US SE
3
1.5% of the GDP worth of damage and counting. Take a look at the rising sea surface temperatures that fuel this kind of extreme weather: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-sea-sur... . It's just a matter of time before people in other States start questioning solidarity with Southern States whose people keep electing climate change deniers into Congress and the Presidency.
2
Florida, the sunshine state, the orange state, the swing state and now the battered state. I hope that on 911 in 2017 the rebuilding of Florida and the Caribbean Islands begins and hope that Irma or its sister or brother never again strikes Florida or the region. But who can say when the next one as bad as this one will strike Florida. Can Floridians live with that uncertainty or move to higher ground or develop the toughness and say death and taxes cannot be escaped and that one is going to die one way or the other might as well not worry as Sen/ John McCain said today. Well one hopes that Florida will rise from this battering and Irma will be a storm of the past like Andrew before.
1
I wonder why the reporters are not hearing head-protective helmets?
It looks as though parts of the Caribbean and St. Martin are devastated. A few spots in Cuba may be pretty bad. Are we sending any help? I haven't heard or read anything about that.
Orange, NJ
Orange, NJ
If the hurricane Irma had struck the place around 50 years back, We would have seen the different scenario. We should thank the modern technology and system that gives us prior updates about climate change and possible dangers. We can't stop the natural calamities, but we can minimize the consequences. Be thankful for the 21st century.l
I am really sorry for those poor people, have visited Florida and enjoyed it. Hopefully casualties may be low. But : Nature must be respected. Pollution and recklessness lead to an ever worsening spiral of such events. Yes, we can make america dry again - by loving and respecting mother nature. Money is worth nothing if you loose your home and life - think about ecology before you think about brute profit.
Both Harvey and Irma will cause huge property damage. But, at least for now, total deaths in the US are about 75. Most summers Phoenix has more heat-related deaths.. And most winters, across the country, there are many more deaths from the cold.
When your home is destroyed in a hurricane, it's a bad inconvenience. But if you die from the heat or the cold it's gruesome. Dying is a big deal. You may even get an obituary. Property destruction, no matter how bad, doesn't measure up. Absent many more deaths, hurricanes basically come and they go. They make people's lives very hard, but so do ordinary house fires.
When your home is destroyed in a hurricane, it's a bad inconvenience. But if you die from the heat or the cold it's gruesome. Dying is a big deal. You may even get an obituary. Property destruction, no matter how bad, doesn't measure up. Absent many more deaths, hurricanes basically come and they go. They make people's lives very hard, but so do ordinary house fires.
I have watched with much sadness the situation unfolding minute after minute on CNN this morning. We the Humans are helpless with nature irrespective of how powerful countries are. WE all are at its mercy. Science has developed all sorts of equipment to monitor storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, cyclones etc. But science does not know why these are happening other than saying, due to drop in pressure, suction of water vapour into a vortex and so on. The real reason is the four fundamental things which science cannot detect, APO, THEJO, WAYO and PATHAVI or cohesion/viscous, heat, oscillation/expansion, hardness/extension. These are the four things that are there in differing amounts in all the elements in Periodic Table. They are in high flux, oscillating at enormous speed. The things that can influence these four are hatred and loving-kindness. Hatred is also a force of extreme frequency and impacts these four with negative impact and you have all these things happening like hurricane in Florida, earthquake in Mexico etc. Loving-kindness is of very low frequency but is of positive impact on these four things and make then behave in the normal way and no harm to all. Until we learn to stop hating but have loving-kindness, we are really doomed.
"There was no television to keep many residents updated, with only the remaining battery on their cellphones keeping them in touch with the world."
I was able to receive updates during Superstorm Sandy, and afterwards, in an area that had no power, phone, cellphone or internet service, using a $10 battery operated transistor radio.
Surely , residents who knew that a hurricane was headed their way must picked up battery operated or hand cranked transistor radio, or two, or 3, if they did not already own them. along with as many flashlights, lanterns, &
D batteries as they could get there hands on .
I was able to receive updates during Superstorm Sandy, and afterwards, in an area that had no power, phone, cellphone or internet service, using a $10 battery operated transistor radio.
Surely , residents who knew that a hurricane was headed their way must picked up battery operated or hand cranked transistor radio, or two, or 3, if they did not already own them. along with as many flashlights, lanterns, &
D batteries as they could get there hands on .
2
The proven effects of carbon emissions on global warming include melting of the ice shelf, forest fires, increased temperatures, and drought. Scientists are more circumspect when talking about hurricanes. They are generally confident that increased force is climate change-related. But increased frequency is under debate.
The more comments tie hurricanes to warming, the more approval they get. That is contrary to the research, because it is only partly true.. Attributing natural disasters to climate change is only appropriate if there is evidence in support. We are so put off by climate deniers, we attribute most extreme weather to climate change, whether or not there is any supporting evidence.. Not all bad weather is caused by climate change. And the best comments track the existing research.
The more comments tie hurricanes to warming, the more approval they get. That is contrary to the research, because it is only partly true.. Attributing natural disasters to climate change is only appropriate if there is evidence in support. We are so put off by climate deniers, we attribute most extreme weather to climate change, whether or not there is any supporting evidence.. Not all bad weather is caused by climate change. And the best comments track the existing research.
5
I have been watching the sustained wind speed from gages around Florida and, as of 10 PM eastern Sunday night, it did not appear that a hurricane was hitting the state. I am not joking. Only one wind gage, in Orlando, reported sustained winds above 70 MPH. It could be the storm has died down much more quickly than anticipated.
There is a key difference between sustained winds and wind gusts. Sustained winds are how a hurricane is measured on the Saffir-Simpson scale. They can do far more damage than gusts because, well, they are sustained. They push and push against solid objects, like houses and buildings, until parts start coming off or the building falls in. There were gusts of hurricane force late Sunday, but very few gages showing sustained hurricane force winds.
As the hurricane moved into central Florida around 11 pm, it was still reported to be a category 2 hurricane, meaning sustained winds from 96 to 110 miles per hour. Obviously, different parts of the hurricane have different levels of sustained winds, but the early indications are that the hurricane has not, thus far, been as serious as originally predicted with a Category 4 predicted early moving across virtually the entire state from south to north. Of course, we have very little information at this point from the Florida Keys which bore hard, direct impact from Irma when it moved in fresh from gathering strength at sea.
There is a key difference between sustained winds and wind gusts. Sustained winds are how a hurricane is measured on the Saffir-Simpson scale. They can do far more damage than gusts because, well, they are sustained. They push and push against solid objects, like houses and buildings, until parts start coming off or the building falls in. There were gusts of hurricane force late Sunday, but very few gages showing sustained hurricane force winds.
As the hurricane moved into central Florida around 11 pm, it was still reported to be a category 2 hurricane, meaning sustained winds from 96 to 110 miles per hour. Obviously, different parts of the hurricane have different levels of sustained winds, but the early indications are that the hurricane has not, thus far, been as serious as originally predicted with a Category 4 predicted early moving across virtually the entire state from south to north. Of course, we have very little information at this point from the Florida Keys which bore hard, direct impact from Irma when it moved in fresh from gathering strength at sea.
6
To my utter astonishment a comment I filed late in the game has 213 recommends. I discovered this at 5:30 AM while looking at the first 10 readers' Picks where 8 and 9 are from notlurking NY and me, both about the European forecasting group.
There is some kind of message in these first 10 that a Times staffer might try to summarize.
My 5:30 AM view is that a government that fights science on every front, yet desperately tries to make use of that science to help people keep from getting killed is a government making coherent analysis impossible.
We commenters try and the Times gives us much to work with. Thank you Times. Thank you scientists.
I close by adding this simple fact from Sweden that turned up in my mind when hearing that millions of Americans, Cubans, pick your island are without power. In the city from which I write, Linköping SE, ALL UTILITY LINES ARE UNDERGROUND. There are no above-ground wires to be seen anywhere except for the major transmission lines.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Dual citizen US SE
There is some kind of message in these first 10 that a Times staffer might try to summarize.
My 5:30 AM view is that a government that fights science on every front, yet desperately tries to make use of that science to help people keep from getting killed is a government making coherent analysis impossible.
We commenters try and the Times gives us much to work with. Thank you Times. Thank you scientists.
I close by adding this simple fact from Sweden that turned up in my mind when hearing that millions of Americans, Cubans, pick your island are without power. In the city from which I write, Linköping SE, ALL UTILITY LINES ARE UNDERGROUND. There are no above-ground wires to be seen anywhere except for the major transmission lines.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Dual citizen US SE
8
How can you be so disrespectful of the Times' choice of words?
"What does 'a direct hit' even mean with a storm so huge?"
"Direct hit?" That's a pretty easy one, actually: It means roughly the same thing as other words the Times often uses in these articles, such as "slams" and "crashes" and "crushes" and "smacks." Great words, all of them -- and let's not forget that the Times is paying somebody gobs of money to think them up, aided by nothing but a thesaurus and a vivid imagination!
Show some respect for all of that!
"What does 'a direct hit' even mean with a storm so huge?"
"Direct hit?" That's a pretty easy one, actually: It means roughly the same thing as other words the Times often uses in these articles, such as "slams" and "crashes" and "crushes" and "smacks." Great words, all of them -- and let's not forget that the Times is paying somebody gobs of money to think them up, aided by nothing but a thesaurus and a vivid imagination!
Show some respect for all of that!
1
Darn tootin'!
"There is much happening in the world today beyond Irma."
Like Harvey -- remember Harvey? Before it was Irma 24/7, it was Harvey 24/7. Fortunately for us, journalists' attention spans are short! In fact, some of them made the Harvey-to-Irma switch so abruptly that they didn't have time to buy new windbreakers for when they stand out in the rain and wind to do their broadcasts!
Soon Irma will be forgotten, and then Jose and Katia will be forgotten too (Katia, we hardly knew ya, but we'll sure miss your 35 MPH winds!). We'll be back to talking about Trump. And Putin, of course. Or maybe Trump AND Putin -- that beats just about anything, though nothing can top a young TV reporter standing up to his knees in rain water on some Miami street, holding onto his hat (you know, so the 100 MPH wind doesn't blow it away) -- except, of course, for such a young TV reporter who's wearing the same dark blue windbreaker that he was wearing just a few days ago in Houston; that's pretty much the bee's knees!
"There is much happening in the world today beyond Irma."
Like Harvey -- remember Harvey? Before it was Irma 24/7, it was Harvey 24/7. Fortunately for us, journalists' attention spans are short! In fact, some of them made the Harvey-to-Irma switch so abruptly that they didn't have time to buy new windbreakers for when they stand out in the rain and wind to do their broadcasts!
Soon Irma will be forgotten, and then Jose and Katia will be forgotten too (Katia, we hardly knew ya, but we'll sure miss your 35 MPH winds!). We'll be back to talking about Trump. And Putin, of course. Or maybe Trump AND Putin -- that beats just about anything, though nothing can top a young TV reporter standing up to his knees in rain water on some Miami street, holding onto his hat (you know, so the 100 MPH wind doesn't blow it away) -- except, of course, for such a young TV reporter who's wearing the same dark blue windbreaker that he was wearing just a few days ago in Houston; that's pretty much the bee's knees!
9
Love this!!
You might think these updates would have comments by those in the storm or those with loved ones there, or even well-wishers. But it's a complaint forum, apparently, about how awful people are for living in Florida, how awful that a person in Michigan should lose a couple of pennies to help, how bad the coverage is, how wrong the authorities have been, how horrible it is to say a prayer, and many other moans and barbs. There have been people in great depressions, wars, and illnesses with more kindness and generosity than these commenters evince. In every hand, left and right, snarls and sneers abound. It doesn't have to be that way. It shouldn't. If there's one danger to us now, it's in the meanness that has risen in the land like a sick tide. Call out kindness, you rescuers, give it wherever you can.
24
Jb......maybe people are frustrated that two states with so much to lose and cost the rest of the nation claim to hate "big government" and stubbornly deny climate change. I'm sure commenters do not wish painful losses on anyone, but the ironies and hypocrisies of the situation do fuel cynicism.
4
We have raised the temperature of Earth by 1% in the last 100 years. We are raising the temperature of Earth by another 1% over the next 25 years. Blame the United States government because the biggest cause of climate change is the us military. Irma was child's play.
6
You mean EXXON was behind all this?
"But Exxon does not want us to know ... about the harm it is doing. That might lower their multi-billion dollar yearly profits."
And all this time, I'd thought it was Putin, or Trump, or maybe Khomeini and Qaddafi (no, wait -- they're dead!).
Does this mean it WASN'T Putin or Trump -- only Exxon? Or were those two scoundrels in on it too? What about Michael Flynn? And Rush Limbaugh? Sean Hannity? The Koch brothers -- certainly they were involved, right? And let's not forget Ivanka and Jared -- they pretend to be innocent and all that, but we all know what's really going on!
Don't get me wrong -- I'm not saying Exxon had nothing to do with Irma -- I'm just saying they had help, that's all!
"But Exxon does not want us to know ... about the harm it is doing. That might lower their multi-billion dollar yearly profits."
And all this time, I'd thought it was Putin, or Trump, or maybe Khomeini and Qaddafi (no, wait -- they're dead!).
Does this mean it WASN'T Putin or Trump -- only Exxon? Or were those two scoundrels in on it too? What about Michael Flynn? And Rush Limbaugh? Sean Hannity? The Koch brothers -- certainly they were involved, right? And let's not forget Ivanka and Jared -- they pretend to be innocent and all that, but we all know what's really going on!
Don't get me wrong -- I'm not saying Exxon had nothing to do with Irma -- I'm just saying they had help, that's all!
3
Who needs to fear Russia, North Korea or Mexico when climate change just flooded Florida? That's the only enemy, climate change. No guns, missiles, drones or bombs can stop it.
9
Even though Irma wasn't a big deal for Florida, let's not forget that it WAS a big deal for various Caribbean countries. Hard to feel sorry for owners of the big estates shown in the NYT photo of Virgin Gorda in the BVI, or for the well-to-do residents of St. Maartens, but many poor people (including some in the places just mentioned) suffered and even died. Maybe there should have been tougher building codes in place there, but lax building codes aren't the fault of the people who suffered and died.
So, if we can all take time off from insisting that this was no big deal (climate change deniers) or that it proves climate change (climate change proponents), maybe we'll have a few stray seconds to remember that real, live human beings suffered and died in this storm. Maybe they weren't Americans, but they were people.
So, if we can all take time off from insisting that this was no big deal (climate change deniers) or that it proves climate change (climate change proponents), maybe we'll have a few stray seconds to remember that real, live human beings suffered and died in this storm. Maybe they weren't Americans, but they were people.
9
"Biggest thing you can do now is pray". That is the problem. Prayers are the recourse of those who do not believe in reason. Prayers are nothing but a ritualized form of superstition. Praying to solve a problem is for the uninformed and the ignorant. Unfortunately, this is precisely what this country has become, a nation of uninformed and ignorant people who believe in magic and reject science. As Global Warming wrecks the World, Americans pray it won't affect them. Good luck with the prayers. Who knows, maybe, just maybe, Nature might decide to disregard the laws of Physics and answer their prayers, just to make Trump and his hordes of ignorant racists happy. Don't think so.
24
“The biggest thing you can do now is pray,” said Gov. Rick Scott. He could have added, "...and when this is over, please keep praying because Trump has abolished science"
19
Wow! He has super powers! How did he accomplish that?
7
Is there nothing The Donald cannot do?
2
Maybe prayer was how Rick Scott escaped a prison sentence for Medicare fraud.
2
Maybe they should stop praying and start listening to the scientists.
22
If they do, perhaps they'll hear the scientists praying...
4
My family lives in Florida. They chose not to evacuate their home in preparation for Hurricane Irma. My parents, who live in Coral Springs, Florida right outside of Miami, were hit directly and experienced heavy heavy rain and wind. My brother, who lives in Jacksonville, Florida was also hit directly. They all have been sending me pictures and videos of the wind and all the water. My parents pool overflowed into the yard and are still expecting a lot of rain, and my brother's dock on the St. Johns River is under water. point being, Hurricane Irma is defiantly doing a lot of damage
6
Sitting thousands of miles away from Florida, I am fascinated by all the live reporting of Irma. It lets me experience, albeit vicariously, the terror of nature's forces and empathize with countless Floridians directly affected. I have visited Florida a few times, but never in hurricane season. I wish Floridians all the luck now so they can soon make Florida beautiful again after the devastation.
7
“The biggest thing you can do now is pray.”
How about funding NOAA?
How about funding NOAA?
27
What does the word " now" mean to you? By all means fund NOAA. But, there is little wrong with praying now. If you were sick and one offered prayer for you, would you reply, fund NIH?
9
“The biggest thing you can do now is pray,” Gov. Rick Scott said on Sunday afternoon.
Yeah, that'll help.
Oh wait, isn't it God who makes everything happen? If God made the hurricane, how's praying going to help?
I don't mean to mock those in peril of losing their homes, maybe lives, but this tiresome appeal to prayer has long passed its expiration date.
Yeah, that'll help.
Oh wait, isn't it God who makes everything happen? If God made the hurricane, how's praying going to help?
I don't mean to mock those in peril of losing their homes, maybe lives, but this tiresome appeal to prayer has long passed its expiration date.
18
Well, it depends on what you believe and especially the version of Christianity to which you adhere. Some believe that God doesn't make or create evil. Being all good, he cannot even conceive of it. Because evil is not ordained by God, it has no power. Therefore, we are safe. Always. We are only under the jurisdiction of God and not of matter's laws. Matter is at war with spirit, God.
Ask yourself, why would God put his creation in danger? An all-loving God would not do that.
Ask yourself, why would God put his creation in danger? An all-loving God would not do that.
5
You forgot the evil genius theory as well as the one in which God is indifferent to human affairs. The only characters under God's protection are saints in biblical stories. We're left with problem solvers to save the human race: scientists and talented, thinking people in every walk of life.
1
Agreed that God would not put his creation in danger. But if God sees that his creation is in danger, would He not do something about it without being asked?
Wanting to get out of NJ with its extortionate taxes, especially property taxes, we've been thinking of retiring to the Tampa area. It's a wake-up call when one realizes that mother nature always has the last word. Perhaps Arizona and New Mexico would be better retirement choices. Our prayers for those affected by the storm.
8
Taxes are something you pay to help with these catastrophies. Moving to Arizona will not help you escape from climate change.
12
Gov. Rick Scott may be right, at this point there's not much to do but hunker down and pray. But after this storm moves on, people should be asking hard questions.
Why didn't Gov. Scott order evacuations of Tampa earlier, even though forecasts showed a significant probability that the storm could follow a path close to where it's wound up? Why shelter people evacuating from Miami in other cities that were almost equally at risk?
That's not even to mention the bigger question of global climate change, on which Gov. Scott has distinguished himself as a denier. He should have to answer for that too.
Why didn't Gov. Scott order evacuations of Tampa earlier, even though forecasts showed a significant probability that the storm could follow a path close to where it's wound up? Why shelter people evacuating from Miami in other cities that were almost equally at risk?
That's not even to mention the bigger question of global climate change, on which Gov. Scott has distinguished himself as a denier. He should have to answer for that too.
13
For 2.) because they dont want everyone going to a single place that would crowd out people in that area.
3
Bill, that explanation doesn't cut the mustard.
In Oregon we'd never consider evacuating people from one tsunami zone to another, just because one is marginally less at risk from the same event.
In Oregon we'd never consider evacuating people from one tsunami zone to another, just because one is marginally less at risk from the same event.
4
Joel, if area 2, still in tsunami zone, had protection from the tsunami would you still go?
1
I'm here in Gainesville FL listening to the rain coming down through the gutters and down through the trees. I know the wind will kick up when the eye wall brushes past us. The rain means the ground is soft and the wind will push the trees over. Either way we are inland and vulnerable. At the least, we don't have storm surge yet. In a few years we will be a coastal city.
9
A few?
6
No worries, the swamp will continue to be inland (and way too buggy) because Florida is not giving up the tourist dollars generated by beaches. Miami Beach and any other coastal city destroyed by the hurricane will be rebuilt.
1
The amazing radar tracking, the work by the hurricane planes and pilots, the ability to learn from previous hurricanes, the ability for TV reporters to broadcast from anywhere, the color on-TV screen graphics - all amazing signs of the wonderful advances of science and technology over the last 50 to 75 years. Stemming from government funding and support for science and technology research.
I wondered what happened before radar? How did they track incoming storms back then? What advances occurred to make that happen? I think there's an amazing story of science that should be told. Maybe if we celebrated our weather superstar scientists like we overcelebrate athletes and pop music stars we wouldn't be in this position where an anti-science president and GOP and religious zealots can undercut government science budgets and promote "creationism" in the schools.
If I was going to pray it would be for this hurricane to catalyze an epiphany for the anti-science crowd to see the value of science funding.
I wondered what happened before radar? How did they track incoming storms back then? What advances occurred to make that happen? I think there's an amazing story of science that should be told. Maybe if we celebrated our weather superstar scientists like we overcelebrate athletes and pop music stars we wouldn't be in this position where an anti-science president and GOP and religious zealots can undercut government science budgets and promote "creationism" in the schools.
If I was going to pray it would be for this hurricane to catalyze an epiphany for the anti-science crowd to see the value of science funding.
60
Google Galveston Hurricane 1900. 6,000 - 12,000 killed. The story is horrific and educational.
“The Galveston hurricane made people realize you can’t play politics with a weather bureau,” Emanuel says. “If you make it political, people will die.”
“The Galveston hurricane made people realize you can’t play politics with a weather bureau,” Emanuel says. “If you make it political, people will die.”
17
“The biggest thing you can do now is pray,” Gov. Rick Scott said on Sunday afternoon.
Right. Because praying was so effective at keeping the storm far, far out to sea. Bunk.
Right. Because praying was so effective at keeping the storm far, far out to sea. Bunk.
18
Best part of this hurricane-weekend: Trump removed from the headlines. Thank you, Irma!
18
RE “The biggest thing you can do now is pray,” Gov. Rick Scott said on Sunday afternoon...Actually, that would be the smallest thing you could do, since it has no efficacy whatsoever in a world populated by humans, not gods. Forget the prayers and roll up your sleeves.
22
I'm "praying" the eye which is forecast to go over Tallahassee will hit the Governor's mansion. Not that that will change his mind about climate change but it would be nice.
17
“The biggest thing you can do now is pray,” Gov. Rick Scott said.
God gave us brains to think with, ears to hear with, and eyes to see.
If you're still fighting the obvious need to reduce C02 in the atmosphere,
Gov. Scott is right.
If you have a working brain, use it to understand the best way to reduce the power of such storms, and then act on what you've learned.
God gave us brains to think with, ears to hear with, and eyes to see.
If you're still fighting the obvious need to reduce C02 in the atmosphere,
Gov. Scott is right.
If you have a working brain, use it to understand the best way to reduce the power of such storms, and then act on what you've learned.
12
“The biggest thing you can do now is pray,” Gov. Rick Scott said on Sunday afternoon.
Really? To the same god that created the hurricane to begin with?
I just don't understand religious people.
Really? To the same god that created the hurricane to begin with?
I just don't understand religious people.
18
I'm not religious, but I'll pray for you to be graced with understanding.
5
Actually, shouldn't we be thanking God for sparing so many lives?
5
Prayer is not the answer. The answer is cogent, sensible land use planning; building consensus and communities who recognize the hazards which need to be planned for; acknowledging the role of a Federal government in guiding response and managing planning; acknowledging that there is a cost to this which the public must pay. These facile comments re: prayer are an unworthy response to the gravity of this situation and all others of this magnitude. And of course, acknowledging that there is a human component to these events.
22
Yeah, wow, praying, how awful! The commenters here will stomp that horrible thing out! But really, I can't see why a prayer would cause one not to be able to reason, be kind, act for the common good, or any other beneficial thing that a virtuous atheist would. But religious tolerance is dying out, with other tolerance, and blunt stereotypes are wielded as weapons against people we don't know, and against us in our turn. I remember Martin Luther King Jr., a Christian minister who kept the faith I share. I wish you could remember him, too. You might have liked him.
5
What is missing from all the reporting is information about the 'storm surge.'Nothing in the print media or on cable. Lots of talk about wind speed and rain- nothing about the damage from the surge. Did I miss the news?
9
This hurricane was just a whisper of what's to come. Because we have not yet reduced carbon pollution enough to keep the concentration of CO2 from rising (now over 400 ppm, higher than its been for 4 million years) the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf will get hotter and hotter. Hot water for hurricanes is jet fuel.
Because of global warming and hot water in the Gulf the risk of unprecedented but predictable hurricanes in Tampa -- "grey swan hurricanes" -- has increased by a factor of 14. In other words, because of global warming, Tampa is 14 times more likely to have mega-storms. But Governor Scott and the rest of the GOP refuse to protect Tampa from harm. They even refuse to acknowledge the risk of harm exists. They refuse to respect the science even though the cost of the damage from future hurricanes will be far greater than the cost of switching to clean energy, even though an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure, and would save many lives.
But Exxon does not want us to know of the ever-increasing risk of monster hurricanes. It does not want us to know about the harm it is doing. That might lower their multi-billion dollar yearly profits. So they have lied about climate change. So in the future, we should give credit where credit is due; instead of calling unprecedented mega-hurricanes "grey swans" they should be called "Exxons."
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/extreme-grey-swan-hurrican...
Because of global warming and hot water in the Gulf the risk of unprecedented but predictable hurricanes in Tampa -- "grey swan hurricanes" -- has increased by a factor of 14. In other words, because of global warming, Tampa is 14 times more likely to have mega-storms. But Governor Scott and the rest of the GOP refuse to protect Tampa from harm. They even refuse to acknowledge the risk of harm exists. They refuse to respect the science even though the cost of the damage from future hurricanes will be far greater than the cost of switching to clean energy, even though an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure, and would save many lives.
But Exxon does not want us to know of the ever-increasing risk of monster hurricanes. It does not want us to know about the harm it is doing. That might lower their multi-billion dollar yearly profits. So they have lied about climate change. So in the future, we should give credit where credit is due; instead of calling unprecedented mega-hurricanes "grey swans" they should be called "Exxons."
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/extreme-grey-swan-hurrican...
13
Why did Governor Scott even bother telling Floridians and the rest of the nation about all that government agencies were doing to help. Scott believes the less the government the better. Scott believes and followed through with those beliefs that the ACA was no good for Floridians. So were the Federal agencies who talked of climate change, a term he forbade to be inserted in any state reports. Scott seemed the past few days the all-consuming concerned chief executive of his state. I say why bother now. Scott has done all he could to deny services needed to the people of his state. Why bother going on TV? Isn't that just another hoax of Science? Isn't any science that disagrees with his arcane beliefs hoaxes. This man whom Floridians chose as their governor should have simple gone to church and pray, telling those he supposedly leads that's it's all in God's hands now, and there's not a thing he or any government worker can do to alleviate their suffering. Hypocrite.
DD
Manhattan
DD
Manhattan
20
We in New Jersey have our Christie to bear, but at least we do not have Rick Scott.
5
Is it just a coincidence that, with Florida incapacitated by the hurricane, I have not received any "robo-calls" today?
10
Stay safe, and away snowbirds.
1
“The biggest thing you can do now is pray,” Gov. Rick Scott said on Sunday afternoon.
In the face of disaster, all you have to offer is magic spells. Shame on you. Who would be so arrogant as to question "God" with their prayers? Isn't his position on the whole thing pretty clear? Didn't he send the Hurricane? What sin was it again?
Stop the magic and stop your assault on science, Gov.
In the face of disaster, all you have to offer is magic spells. Shame on you. Who would be so arrogant as to question "God" with their prayers? Isn't his position on the whole thing pretty clear? Didn't he send the Hurricane? What sin was it again?
Stop the magic and stop your assault on science, Gov.
18
Curious as to how the Naples Zoo (a real treasure) handled the animals?
6
Probably told them to pray!
6
"Hurricane Irma swept over the Florida Keys, arriving at Marco Island on Sunday "
Educating, so one would hope, John Boehner, former speaker of the House, on the realities of climate change
"Boehner and his wife, Deborah, purchased a unit at the Tampico, 930 Cape Marco Drive, on Feb. 11 for $835,000, according to the deed recorded Feb. 14 with the Collier Clerk of Courts.
The Tampico is a 14-story beach front complex on the Gulf of Mexico. The community features three-bedroom, three-bathroom homes with a "full range of amenities well suited to luxurious Florida beach front lifestyles," according to a local real estate website."
Naple News Feb 20, 2014
"“Listen, I’m not qualified to debate the science over climate change,” Boehner said when asked by a reporter whether he thinks climate change is a problem, and whether he would support taking action to fix it. “But I am astute enough to understand that every proposal that has come out of this administration to deal with climate change involves hurting our economy and killing American jobs. That can’t be the prescription for dealing with changes in our climate.”
https://thinkprogress.org/john-boehner-im-not-qualified-to-debate-the-sc...
Educating, so one would hope, John Boehner, former speaker of the House, on the realities of climate change
"Boehner and his wife, Deborah, purchased a unit at the Tampico, 930 Cape Marco Drive, on Feb. 11 for $835,000, according to the deed recorded Feb. 14 with the Collier Clerk of Courts.
The Tampico is a 14-story beach front complex on the Gulf of Mexico. The community features three-bedroom, three-bathroom homes with a "full range of amenities well suited to luxurious Florida beach front lifestyles," according to a local real estate website."
Naple News Feb 20, 2014
"“Listen, I’m not qualified to debate the science over climate change,” Boehner said when asked by a reporter whether he thinks climate change is a problem, and whether he would support taking action to fix it. “But I am astute enough to understand that every proposal that has come out of this administration to deal with climate change involves hurting our economy and killing American jobs. That can’t be the prescription for dealing with changes in our climate.”
https://thinkprogress.org/john-boehner-im-not-qualified-to-debate-the-sc...
12
As a resident of the Fla west coast let me say that the coverage can err on the side of hype as far as I'm concerned. I saw what a Cat 4 storm did to the Caribbean. The weather agencies had trouble predicting its path so only an idiot would assume that it was going to die down to"'only" a category 1, or 2 or whatever / whatever. I reluctantly left Saturday am and made sure me and mine were safe. To those of my neighbors who stayed, and so far are OK, I say thank god you are safe.
6
Since when is a Category 2 Hurricane a 'monster'? Quite the hyperbole. If we can't sustain a Category 2 hurricane in Florida then something is seriously wrong with our infrastructure. The US Virgin Islands and other islands in the Caribbean are the ones that we should be really focused on as that is where the real damage was done.
4
More than just wind speeds may qualify as a 'monster storm' -- high water surge, major rainfall, all-over flooding, and power outages may be considered factors?
Yes, tragic what has happened in the Caribbean, for sure, true devastation.
Yes, tragic what has happened in the Caribbean, for sure, true devastation.
12
So ok Mr.'s Trump and Pruitt; let's not talk climate change now. There is an immediate danger right now, and focus is to protect against loss of life, and personal safety. Agree.
So schedule a time to talk- and for you both to listen- lets say, the week of September 18th.
I'd suggest non aggressive, but well knowledged scientists like Heidi Cullen, and Katherine Hayhoe?
Lets schedule a talk when you are trying to clean up the mess, and find funds to pay for it. Let's hope for no loss of life.
So schedule a time to talk- and for you both to listen- lets say, the week of September 18th.
I'd suggest non aggressive, but well knowledged scientists like Heidi Cullen, and Katherine Hayhoe?
Lets schedule a talk when you are trying to clean up the mess, and find funds to pay for it. Let's hope for no loss of life.
4
The photos/videos of Miami, with streets turned into canals like Venice (Italy), I can only think that 10 years from now, this will be the new normal, without the wind and rain. Miami 2017 indeed.
11
Hey, will you please pay for our snow remowal here in Minnesota. Paying for storm damage on your cozy coasts year after year after year... we're getting fed up with it. Just do it yourselves.
13
That's the American spirit. Too bad for us all.
5
With all the warnings why TV reporters were placed in a path of danger?
How important are the ratings as I watched in horror when a long time senior reporter Bill Wier now in CNN was placed in a path of danger and was about to be blown away .
Then he was cut away.
Is he and others placed is such position are okay ?
How necessary was it ?
How important are the ratings as I watched in horror when a long time senior reporter Bill Wier now in CNN was placed in a path of danger and was about to be blown away .
Then he was cut away.
Is he and others placed is such position are okay ?
How necessary was it ?
8
It was not necessary -- except for ratings, of course...
2
All my wishes are with the people in the storm's way.
4
Shouldn't the headline be "third landfall"? Or don't the USVI count as part of the United States?
7
I remember the hurricane of 1937? or 1938. I lived in Peabody, Massachusetts. I cannot remember the exact date. There was no warning. It just happened. I particularly remember because a large tree fell on the house where I was living. No radio warning, there was no tV. I know there was a lot of damage but I have no idea of the injury or deaths. Now we have time to be prepared. I say thank you to the weather forecasts.
17
I really find it quite amusing to read comments about the hurricane being over hyped by people living in California, as though they have anything intelligent to say on the subject. I live in South Carolina, so perhaps they will regard me as an expert on the subject of earthquakes when, and it is when, California has another significant sized one.
Meteorologists are not just forecasting a straight line. They have to forecast she the hurricane will change direction, at what angle, and how strong it will be at different points along its route. Sometimes they get carried away. Remember global cooling back in the 1970s?
Some of the most memorable coverage of the recent hurricane in Texas was not the articles, but rather the pictures of people who had lost most everything except their lives, family, and sometimes pets. Ask them if the overage was overhyped. Ask the people in Barbuda if the NYt should have written about the market for million dollar homes instead.
Meteorologists are not just forecasting a straight line. They have to forecast she the hurricane will change direction, at what angle, and how strong it will be at different points along its route. Sometimes they get carried away. Remember global cooling back in the 1970s?
Some of the most memorable coverage of the recent hurricane in Texas was not the articles, but rather the pictures of people who had lost most everything except their lives, family, and sometimes pets. Ask them if the overage was overhyped. Ask the people in Barbuda if the NYt should have written about the market for million dollar homes instead.
15
I can't help but feel slightly unnerved by that tweet (Sun Dome with special needs patients) towards the end of the article .
Tampa? right?
where Irma is headed?
Disaster in the making.
I hope I'm wrong ...
Tampa? right?
where Irma is headed?
Disaster in the making.
I hope I'm wrong ...
The unnerving feature of a hurricane is the pitch of the wind, which gets higher and higher, the closer it is to your house! I would imagine it may be how people in WW2 thought about the pitch of a dropped bomb, going in the other direction to a lower tone before it hit.
3
Lake Tahoe is in hurricane country? Wow, who knew...
I listened to the mayor of Tampa blame the federal government for Tampa's lack of infrastructure preparedness for a hurricane. Republicans deny climate change, blame the federal government and then ask for a federal handout. That hypocrisy must be called out and condemned. When republicans seek federal assistance it is political. If they don't want it to be political then the state can handle its own problems. And they shouldn't get federal assistance until they admit climate change and the value of the federal government.
111
Bob Buckhorn, the mayor of Tampa, is a Democrat. Had no idea, did you? But that didn't keep you from posting. Facts matter.... at least to some people...
I was born in Miami Beach in 1950 during a hurricane, and grew up in Ft. Lauderdale. I've seen many hurricanes, including Katrina in New Orleans, where I lived for 20 years.
My 95 year old mum grew up in Miami Beach. She is in an assisted living home in western Broward County as I write. She hasn't had power since 8 am this morning.
To all the commentators with their sarcasm and snark: ignorance is bliss.
You have no idea of the mind blowing power of the sea combined with hurricane force winds.
I was lucky enough to see the totality of the eclipse. It was an indescribable spiritual experience. Go through a Cat 3, 4 or 5 hurricane near the sea and you can put an exponent of 10 on the experience in comparison.
This is the new normal.
2 plus 2 will always be 4 despite how much money is spent on magical thinking disinformation or the feckless tongue wagging of politicians and others.
As my daddy taught me "if you can't think you gotta feel."
Mother Nature will be the teacher.
My 95 year old mum grew up in Miami Beach. She is in an assisted living home in western Broward County as I write. She hasn't had power since 8 am this morning.
To all the commentators with their sarcasm and snark: ignorance is bliss.
You have no idea of the mind blowing power of the sea combined with hurricane force winds.
I was lucky enough to see the totality of the eclipse. It was an indescribable spiritual experience. Go through a Cat 3, 4 or 5 hurricane near the sea and you can put an exponent of 10 on the experience in comparison.
This is the new normal.
2 plus 2 will always be 4 despite how much money is spent on magical thinking disinformation or the feckless tongue wagging of politicians and others.
As my daddy taught me "if you can't think you gotta feel."
Mother Nature will be the teacher.
66
Good thoughts and wishes going out to your mom for her wellbeing and safety, and to you for this comment. This IS the new normal and it is very frightening.
1
Instead of spending a trillion dollars to upgrade our nuclear arsenal, why don't we spend the money burying electrical and telephone wires along the shorelines?
16
Saltwater. Once saltwater hits the lines they are toast. One of the bigger issues after Sandy was saltwater contamination. There are of course huge issues involved in "burying" power lines in coastal areas but saltwater is one of the biggest. And as groundwater increasingly becomes more saline due to oceans rising this is an ever greater problem both to power and also drinking water.
Floridas governor who seems to be playing at being very earnest NOW has a lot to answer for in how his greed has directly led to these lroblems worsening. Pray indeed Mr. Scott. Pray that your more recent crimes (as opposed to your former medical cheating) are not what causes people to die in the face of this stlrm because of lack of electrical systems, loss of barrier marshes, and endless development YOU sponsored.
Floridas governor who seems to be playing at being very earnest NOW has a lot to answer for in how his greed has directly led to these lroblems worsening. Pray indeed Mr. Scott. Pray that your more recent crimes (as opposed to your former medical cheating) are not what causes people to die in the face of this stlrm because of lack of electrical systems, loss of barrier marshes, and endless development YOU sponsored.
1
Watch the videos of the storm on NYT. It's not over hyped
6
This storm appears to have been overhyped. Whether it was pure luck or "cry wolf," we need to do better, lest an abundance of dire weather predictions leaves us vulnerable.
8
I dunno...prayer has such a high failure rate. I wouldn't recommend it in a real time of duress like this....
10
Thank you, NYT, for the intelligent, informative coverage of Irma. I learn more from an hour's worth of reading the NYT about Irma than I might from watching hours and hours of television.
Will we get a review of the television coverage? A great deal of what the cable news networks are shoveling out at us is hype and fancy graphics, desperation to fill 24/7 coverage. Little of it is truly news, and it certainly doesn't qualify as (CNN's) "Breaking News." "Hollywood Makes a Good Film." "Trump Tells the Truth." "Kim Jung-Un Baptized." Now that's breaking news.
There is much happening in the world today beyond Irma. And it is very important to us. The world doesn't stop just because wind howls and rain blows horizontally on a land that decades of experience tell us dangles in the danger zone.
I know it's asking too much, cable news, but can you take a lesson from the NYT? Give us some intelligent, informative news!
Will we get a review of the television coverage? A great deal of what the cable news networks are shoveling out at us is hype and fancy graphics, desperation to fill 24/7 coverage. Little of it is truly news, and it certainly doesn't qualify as (CNN's) "Breaking News." "Hollywood Makes a Good Film." "Trump Tells the Truth." "Kim Jung-Un Baptized." Now that's breaking news.
There is much happening in the world today beyond Irma. And it is very important to us. The world doesn't stop just because wind howls and rain blows horizontally on a land that decades of experience tell us dangles in the danger zone.
I know it's asking too much, cable news, but can you take a lesson from the NYT? Give us some intelligent, informative news!
13
Bravo! The cable news coverage today has been fatuous to the point of ridiculous. Having those reporters bloviating in the pouring rain standing beside trees that are falling beside them proves what, exactly? Beyond inaccurate much of the commentary was thoughtless and banal. The consensus from the 'officials' was don't call us we're not coming, get out, duck or the tried and true let's pray as hard as we can.
7
We're in St. Augustine. Living wisely with hurricanes takes some experience, we were flooded last year by Matthew. We are looking at tide charts and wind speed and direction to make our decisions now, not the broadcast journalist standing on the beach in Miami. My thoughts go out to the folks on the west coast of Florida, stay safe and be smart. It is a painfull effort, but you will recover.
9
Those of us who are not having our lives disrupted, losing our homes or in danger of losing our lives, have space to think about what humans are doing to increase severe weather events. Our job is to pay closer attention to what scientists have being saying about climate change and increased severe weather. 97% of publishing climate scientists agree that climate change is occurring and is human-caused. Here are two leading climate scientists on Hurricane Harvey:
Michael Mann, Prof of Atmospheric Science, Penn State Univ — "while we cannot say climate change “caused” Hurricane Harvey (that is an ill-posed question), we can say is that it exacerbated several characteristics of the storm in a way that greatly increased the risk of damage and loss of life. Climate change worsened the impact of Hurricane Harvey."
James Hansen, Prof. of Climate Science, Colummbia State Univ — "there are very clear links." Like Mann, he cites sea level rise due to melting ice as a cause of increased storm surges, and "the strength of storms. Thunderstorms, tornadoes, tropical storms all get their energy from the latent energy of water vapor. And because the atmosphere now holds more water vapor, the strength of those storms can be greater. And so, there are substantial human-made effects on these storms. It’s not debatable now. These are all well-established facts." This is all quickly findable online.
Michael Mann, Prof of Atmospheric Science, Penn State Univ — "while we cannot say climate change “caused” Hurricane Harvey (that is an ill-posed question), we can say is that it exacerbated several characteristics of the storm in a way that greatly increased the risk of damage and loss of life. Climate change worsened the impact of Hurricane Harvey."
James Hansen, Prof. of Climate Science, Colummbia State Univ — "there are very clear links." Like Mann, he cites sea level rise due to melting ice as a cause of increased storm surges, and "the strength of storms. Thunderstorms, tornadoes, tropical storms all get their energy from the latent energy of water vapor. And because the atmosphere now holds more water vapor, the strength of those storms can be greater. And so, there are substantial human-made effects on these storms. It’s not debatable now. These are all well-established facts." This is all quickly findable online.
71
"Climate change worsened the impact of Hurricane Harvey."
Compared to what? A Houston that was developed in a a sensible way given its geography and local climate? Compared to the Harvey we would have had if the Ice Age had never ended? An absurd and dishonest statement from Professor Mann.
As for Professor Hansen, who predicted the inundation of the Upper West Side of Manhattan by 2010, we have this: "...he cites sea level rise due to melting ice as a cause of increased storm surges." Arctic ice cap shrinking in summer does not raise sea level: The Antarctic ice mass is slowly increasing: The state of Greenland's ice cap is being investigated, with the actual mass balance not determined. (See the NYTimes article of last year, "Melting Away.") Sea has been rising, but since the 1980s, when James Hansen made his public debut before Congress, it has only gained height in the millimeters:
no where near enough to make a difference during storms such as Harvey or Irma.
All the dramatic impacts of sea level rise are projected impacts, for the coming century, IF the model predictions are correct.
Compared to what? A Houston that was developed in a a sensible way given its geography and local climate? Compared to the Harvey we would have had if the Ice Age had never ended? An absurd and dishonest statement from Professor Mann.
As for Professor Hansen, who predicted the inundation of the Upper West Side of Manhattan by 2010, we have this: "...he cites sea level rise due to melting ice as a cause of increased storm surges." Arctic ice cap shrinking in summer does not raise sea level: The Antarctic ice mass is slowly increasing: The state of Greenland's ice cap is being investigated, with the actual mass balance not determined. (See the NYTimes article of last year, "Melting Away.") Sea has been rising, but since the 1980s, when James Hansen made his public debut before Congress, it has only gained height in the millimeters:
no where near enough to make a difference during storms such as Harvey or Irma.
All the dramatic impacts of sea level rise are projected impacts, for the coming century, IF the model predictions are correct.
4
And what peer-reviewed journals have you published your climate research in? Funny, you didn't mention any research of your own. Professor Hansen was director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, where he managed a space shot to Venus. Please state your own credentials.
According to Hansen: "With the beginning of changes in atmospheric composition, caused by burning fossil fuels mainly, the planet is getting warmer, and sea level has begun to go up, because the ocean is getting warmer and because ice is melting. Well, on the global average, it’s gone up by about 20 centimeters, which is about eight inches; however, it’s not the same every place. Along the East Coast of the United States and the Gulf Coast, it’s larger than the global average. It’s a good foot. So that’s a significant contribution to the magnitude of the storm surges that drive the water onto Houston and the other regions."
https://www.democracynow.org/2017/8/30/ex_nasa_scientist_james_hansen_there
According to Hansen: "With the beginning of changes in atmospheric composition, caused by burning fossil fuels mainly, the planet is getting warmer, and sea level has begun to go up, because the ocean is getting warmer and because ice is melting. Well, on the global average, it’s gone up by about 20 centimeters, which is about eight inches; however, it’s not the same every place. Along the East Coast of the United States and the Gulf Coast, it’s larger than the global average. It’s a good foot. So that’s a significant contribution to the magnitude of the storm surges that drive the water onto Houston and the other regions."
https://www.democracynow.org/2017/8/30/ex_nasa_scientist_james_hansen_there
8
"As for Professor Hansen, who predicted the inundation of the Upper West Side of Manhattan by 2010,..."
Hansen NEVER projected the upper west side to be inundated by 2010. And you can't cite anything. (really bad strawman)
Climate models have been accurate over the past few decades with projections within the uncertainties of the models. Even Hansen's 1981 paper is still reasonable but too conservative.
Sea level rise has been on the high end of projections, accelerating over the last 20 years. Sea level has risen 86.4 mm since 1993. Considering that 360 billion tonnes of land ice needs to melt for a single mm of sea level rise, that is a huge amount of excess heat melting land ice. (thermal expansion is also responsible for about a third of the rise...but that is not good news since it take lots of heat as well.)
Hansen NEVER projected the upper west side to be inundated by 2010. And you can't cite anything. (really bad strawman)
Climate models have been accurate over the past few decades with projections within the uncertainties of the models. Even Hansen's 1981 paper is still reasonable but too conservative.
Sea level rise has been on the high end of projections, accelerating over the last 20 years. Sea level has risen 86.4 mm since 1993. Considering that 360 billion tonnes of land ice needs to melt for a single mm of sea level rise, that is a huge amount of excess heat melting land ice. (thermal expansion is also responsible for about a third of the rise...but that is not good news since it take lots of heat as well.)
2
I feel bad for those people who have lost their homes in Texas and Florida, due to the recent floods, but what about the people who lost their homes to foreclosure during the Great Recession, from 2007-2008 on. For people who've been living in places with no running water for YEARS, what about US? Where is our bailout?
11
Millions of lives are lost each year to monsoons. Yet, crummy houses reappear due to severe poverty. One day we all will die, from even nothing. Be grateful where you stand. Share something to help somebody....anything.
7
I recall an article in NYT about poor Floridians whose homes were not connected to a city sewer, a septic tank or a well. I thought out-house living ended decades ago. I also didn't know there were homes in Santa Barbara, CA that lacked running water. Isn't that a wealthy area?
1
When reporters appear outside during a storm like this, they undermine their own message to others to stay safe. Their trustworthiness is compromised. I hope broadcasters will rethink this all too common practice. Instead of making me want to keep watching, I want to switch off the coverage, so that I'm not complicit.
16
How are the two nuclear power plants in FL holding up? Any damage to their ability to keep the reactors cool? What level of flooding is anticipated in these plants?
8
The plants were brought to a cold shutdown condition--about 120 degrees F prior to the storm hitting. If the plants have power from off site or from the diesels, there will be no problem and the reactors will remain cool. If offsite power or the diesels have failed and power cannot be restored within a couple days or so, there will be issues from radioactive decay heat in the cores. (this would require a lot of diesels to fail which is very unlikely.) If they have a problem, regulations require them to issue a site alert which depends on severity--this would be made public quickly as it is really mandatory.
5
Firstly, I hope all are staying safe. Next: It was decades ago when critics of building in the California wildfire zones caught my attention as a comfortable northeastern. How could you build communities in such a place?
Now I'd like to know what the professional city planning community has been saying for the last many decades about building in Florida? And Houston where oil refineries are dominant?
I can understand why people want to live where they are close to natural beauty. But at what costs?
Climate change should, I hope, become a common perception, rather than just another partisan divide.
Now I'd like to know what the professional city planning community has been saying for the last many decades about building in Florida? And Houston where oil refineries are dominant?
I can understand why people want to live where they are close to natural beauty. But at what costs?
Climate change should, I hope, become a common perception, rather than just another partisan divide.
8
Major rivers are going to flood.....Mother Nature needs to stretch her limbs from time to time. When people rebuild rebuild rebuild, I think good luck. You have just tempted fate. As for natural beauty, look up!!
2
Stone houses aren't necessarily better!
"I am puzzled again and again why no one builds homes out of real stone or brick in the US. Almost as if no one ever heard the story of the three little pigs and the bad wolf."
Having walked around after the 1989 quake here, and read a great deal about different types of construction, I can assure you that the number one worst choice of building material would have been brick, followed closely by stone. "Balloon construction" wood-frame homes were much more stable. True enough, wooden homes burn more (though brick or stone homes burn too), but they're often stand up much better against earthquakes, hurricanes and other natural disasters.
"I am puzzled again and again why no one builds homes out of real stone or brick in the US. Almost as if no one ever heard the story of the three little pigs and the bad wolf."
Having walked around after the 1989 quake here, and read a great deal about different types of construction, I can assure you that the number one worst choice of building material would have been brick, followed closely by stone. "Balloon construction" wood-frame homes were much more stable. True enough, wooden homes burn more (though brick or stone homes burn too), but they're often stand up much better against earthquakes, hurricanes and other natural disasters.
3
thats odd i was watching the balloon framed marina district burn from the roof of one of the hardly impacted all brick buildings in the tenderloin
2
Tougher building codes?
I think we all agree building codes should be strict if that will help prevent problems that are endemic to buildings in a particular area. But my understanding is that most or all of hurricane-prone Florida ALREADY has such building codes -- just as we have very strict building codes here in SF that aim to prevent damage from earthquakes.
My impression is that OTHER countries -- at least poor countries -- often don't have strict building codes. After the Haiti earthquake a few years back, for example, many would-be donors refused to contribute to rebuilding because they predicted the new buildings would just fall down again when the next big earthquake hit. And they probably were correct to predict that. But stricter building codes also add to building costs; Haitian officials weren't really stupid, as many would-be donors insisted they were, or corrupt (though some undoubtedly were, just as some officials here are) -- they just needed to "balance" the obvious good sense of stricter building codes against the equally obvious need of Haitian people for new homes. They struck a balance in a different place from where many would-be donors would have struck it.
I think we all agree building codes should be strict if that will help prevent problems that are endemic to buildings in a particular area. But my understanding is that most or all of hurricane-prone Florida ALREADY has such building codes -- just as we have very strict building codes here in SF that aim to prevent damage from earthquakes.
My impression is that OTHER countries -- at least poor countries -- often don't have strict building codes. After the Haiti earthquake a few years back, for example, many would-be donors refused to contribute to rebuilding because they predicted the new buildings would just fall down again when the next big earthquake hit. And they probably were correct to predict that. But stricter building codes also add to building costs; Haitian officials weren't really stupid, as many would-be donors insisted they were, or corrupt (though some undoubtedly were, just as some officials here are) -- they just needed to "balance" the obvious good sense of stricter building codes against the equally obvious need of Haitian people for new homes. They struck a balance in a different place from where many would-be donors would have struck it.
2
a hurricane of media hype; now looking like it is not going to be the apocalypse after all. gee, what a surprise.
8
It's very bad for the people in its path - and it's not over. If the damage and casualties are low, it will be because of the early warnings.
15
The models which haven't been correct anyway, don't even put it at hitting St. Pete now! Why don't you update your facts. In fact, it will probably veer further east than it is now set in the models--far east St. Pete and probably Tampa. Disappointed that you're not on top of this.
5
“The biggest thing you can do now is pray.” Gov. Rick Scott
Who do they pray to? The same God that sent the hurricane at them in the first place?
Who do they pray to? The same God that sent the hurricane at them in the first place?
51
"Seriously, what specifically would you have told the Florida people?"
I'd have told them pretty much the same thing, but I wouldn't have ordered anyone to evacuate. I'd have strongly advised that people evacuate the Keys, and advised that people who live elsewhere strongly consider it too.
One thing I'd NOT have done is to tell people they'd be "on their own" if they didn't evacuate. People actually are capable of thinking, and usually do -- for example, about whether it's better to stay in their homes or, instead, to leave. They might well make the wrong decision once in a while, even every time, and they might even be stupid, but even stupid people deserve rescue.
I'd have told them pretty much the same thing, but I wouldn't have ordered anyone to evacuate. I'd have strongly advised that people evacuate the Keys, and advised that people who live elsewhere strongly consider it too.
One thing I'd NOT have done is to tell people they'd be "on their own" if they didn't evacuate. People actually are capable of thinking, and usually do -- for example, about whether it's better to stay in their homes or, instead, to leave. They might well make the wrong decision once in a while, even every time, and they might even be stupid, but even stupid people deserve rescue.
4
"I'd have told them pretty much the same thing, but I wouldn't have ordered anyone to evacuate. I'd have strongly advised that people evacuate the Keys, and advised that people who live elsewhere strongly consider it too. "
So, the only difference is the word "mandatory." Check.
So, the only difference is the word "mandatory." Check.
9
Do "stupid people" have the right to endanger others? When the governor warned them that if they decided, against all reasonable advice, to stay in harm's way, he would not endanger any more lives by sending first responders in to attempt to rescue them.
15
They are told they will be on their own because the risk to rescuers would be too high, not to punish them.
22
The connection between global warming and the number and intensity of hurricanes is a matter under investigation. The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory is one prominent group conducting research. There is nothing unusual about them. They are mainstream scientists conducting mainstream research, They write that:
" It is premature to conclude that greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane activity. That said, human activities may have already caused changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observational limitations."
The bottom line is that there just haven't been that that many hurricanes. and the variations from year to year seem mostly to be random, Predicting the next five hurricane seasons is an iffy propositions. So anyone who thinks they can connect annual carbon emissions to the intensity of the upcoming hurricane season is making a projection unsupported by scientific evidence.
" It is premature to conclude that greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane activity. That said, human activities may have already caused changes that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of the changes or observational limitations."
The bottom line is that there just haven't been that that many hurricanes. and the variations from year to year seem mostly to be random, Predicting the next five hurricane seasons is an iffy propositions. So anyone who thinks they can connect annual carbon emissions to the intensity of the upcoming hurricane season is making a projection unsupported by scientific evidence.
5
You left out the rest of the story: The GFDL projects storms will get worse...which is in line with what climate scientists have being saying all along.
•Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause tropical cyclones globally to be more intense on average (by 2 to 11% according to model projections for an IPCC A1B scenario). This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.
•There are better than even odds that anthropogenic warming over the next century will lead to an increase in the occurrence of very intense tropical cyclone in some basins–an increase that would be substantially larger in percentage terms than the 2-11% increase in the average storm intensity. This increase in intense storm occurrence is projected despite a likely decrease (or little change) in the global numbers of all tropical cyclones.
•Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause tropical cyclones to have substantially higher rainfall rates than present-day ones, with a model-projected increase of about 10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm center
•Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause tropical cyclones globally to be more intense on average (by 2 to 11% according to model projections for an IPCC A1B scenario). This change would imply an even larger percentage increase in the destructive potential per storm, assuming no reduction in storm size.
•There are better than even odds that anthropogenic warming over the next century will lead to an increase in the occurrence of very intense tropical cyclone in some basins–an increase that would be substantially larger in percentage terms than the 2-11% increase in the average storm intensity. This increase in intense storm occurrence is projected despite a likely decrease (or little change) in the global numbers of all tropical cyclones.
•Anthropogenic warming by the end of the 21st century will likely cause tropical cyclones to have substantially higher rainfall rates than present-day ones, with a model-projected increase of about 10-15% for rainfall rates averaged within about 100 km of the storm center
19
Weather 101: Warmer water make stronger hurricanes; warmer air temps make worse droughts; worse droughts make more and worse forest fires. All of which are documented to be occurring. The problem is that the average person/politician cannot, or will not, grasp the physics that small tilts in environmental factors - man induced or otherwise - can have huge snowballing ramifications to the planet's otherwise natural events.
71
Rush Limbaugh is paid by the oil companies, he was paid to
tell people this hurricane was just a simple storm and was
hyped to be a hurricane by the left as a conspiracy plot.
A plot to make citizens panic and buy more water and batteries.
He told people they did not need to evacuate their homes.
Then He, at the last minute evacuated on his private jet.
He never told his steadfast radio audience he was evacuating,
and that they should too. (of course by this time if was
probably too late for his fans) He just said he would not
be broadcasting for the next few days, for security reasons.
So it is the petroleum companies who know global
warming is real and are that they are causing it and
are fighting tooth and nail to keep people from knowing
the truth for the sake of continued profits. Ibsen wrote a
play with the same premise called Enemy Of The People.
I would say that Rush is a real enemy to the people
All for a lousy big paycheck, as are all the elected
people who have taken big donations from these
perpetrators of global warming. The silence
and denial has been bought and paid for. I would
say that is a pretty big crime against the human
race, the present and the future, if there is much of
one. I do not think genocide for profit is too strong
a statement.
tell people this hurricane was just a simple storm and was
hyped to be a hurricane by the left as a conspiracy plot.
A plot to make citizens panic and buy more water and batteries.
He told people they did not need to evacuate their homes.
Then He, at the last minute evacuated on his private jet.
He never told his steadfast radio audience he was evacuating,
and that they should too. (of course by this time if was
probably too late for his fans) He just said he would not
be broadcasting for the next few days, for security reasons.
So it is the petroleum companies who know global
warming is real and are that they are causing it and
are fighting tooth and nail to keep people from knowing
the truth for the sake of continued profits. Ibsen wrote a
play with the same premise called Enemy Of The People.
I would say that Rush is a real enemy to the people
All for a lousy big paycheck, as are all the elected
people who have taken big donations from these
perpetrators of global warming. The silence
and denial has been bought and paid for. I would
say that is a pretty big crime against the human
race, the present and the future, if there is much of
one. I do not think genocide for profit is too strong
a statement.
2
I am from a relative poor (by US standards) southern European country. My family has, like many others, a house at the seaside in a region under a mountain. A wind called "bora" blows there regularly at hurricane strength. The top speed measured a few years ago close to my family's home was around 190 mph. The wind blows all year long, but it is strongest and blows the longest in the winter, sometimes 2 weeks without interruption. Roads and bridges are closed to traffic many times a year, because trucks, buses and trailers are blown off the road into the water with incredible ease. I have seen many a camper destroyed next to a road due to that wind.
With the above experience I am puzzled again and again why no one builds homes out of real stone or brick in the US. Almost as if no one ever heard the story of the three little pigs and the bad wolf. Homes that look like they are made out of stone actually just have a fake stone face 1-2 inches thick, but all homes are made out of wood.
Why?
Why does a population exposed to regular destruction by hurricanes and tornadoes keep building wood houses?
With the above experience I am puzzled again and again why no one builds homes out of real stone or brick in the US. Almost as if no one ever heard the story of the three little pigs and the bad wolf. Homes that look like they are made out of stone actually just have a fake stone face 1-2 inches thick, but all homes are made out of wood.
Why?
Why does a population exposed to regular destruction by hurricanes and tornadoes keep building wood houses?
27
That's lovely, but you haven't been to Florida, have you? And I'll bet a dollar you've never met Katrina, Sandy, Harvey or Irma, which are not in the same class at all.
2
In a metaphorical but also genuine way, capitalism is the political party and religion of the USA. Whatever makes the greatest profit for the powers that be -- in this case, the builders, landscapers, surveyors, etc. -- then that's what the the project will consist of.
Yes, stone and brick make a lot more sense, but they cost more to build, and for all the powers to get what they consider their 'fair share' of profits for their labor, the house would likely cost too much for many people.
So, since we base our economics on making a profit off many customers, we need to create products and services that many can afford.
Many projects are expensive and require many different kinds of teams -- building a house, for example. In the absence of regulations, quality may suffer. So, clearly we need to erect regulations and create funding to build and maintain quality structures that can withstand future storms.
Does this help explain why?
I agree with you, and there are flaws in our system of free enterprise, but many benefits exist.
I'm hoping now that agencies will shore up resources to create long-lasting structures that will better withstand the storms that are certain to land in the next few decades.
Yes, stone and brick make a lot more sense, but they cost more to build, and for all the powers to get what they consider their 'fair share' of profits for their labor, the house would likely cost too much for many people.
So, since we base our economics on making a profit off many customers, we need to create products and services that many can afford.
Many projects are expensive and require many different kinds of teams -- building a house, for example. In the absence of regulations, quality may suffer. So, clearly we need to erect regulations and create funding to build and maintain quality structures that can withstand future storms.
Does this help explain why?
I agree with you, and there are flaws in our system of free enterprise, but many benefits exist.
I'm hoping now that agencies will shore up resources to create long-lasting structures that will better withstand the storms that are certain to land in the next few decades.
5
I have a daughter in Delray, no mandatory evacuation in the area where she lives and for the kind of house she inhabits. Like many others she followed directions from local authorities, prepared as well as she could, stays put. I am grateful.
For all the commenters who in the last few days "prayed" that Mar-a-Lago would be "hit", I guess that nature, or science, or god had other plans.
For all the commenters who in the last few days "prayed" that Mar-a-Lago would be "hit", I guess that nature, or science, or god had other plans.
3
Support solutions and policies that would avoid disasters?
Unfortunately too many Americans elect political representatives who prefer the harsher, more damaging, more costly consequences of doing nothing.
If they learn anything at all, it will be the hard way.
Unfortunately too many Americans elect political representatives who prefer the harsher, more damaging, more costly consequences of doing nothing.
If they learn anything at all, it will be the hard way.
11
A commenter suggests only the two extremes are possible choices, and picks the same one I'd pick:
"I'd rather have the coverage and the hysteria than no coverage."
Certainly here in San Francisco, we'd all like some advance warning of an earthquake.
Nonetheless, with the information necessary to give such a warning also comes a responsibility. The "safe" course is simply to treat every storm as the "Big One," order a full-state evacuation every time, and then shrug and say "Who knew?" when a storm turns out to be no big deal.
But is that short-sighted? What if you do that every time and people stop taking you seriously? What if that happens and the "Big One" actually does arrive and your warning goes unheeded? Would that unfortunate result make you think that you should have been a bit less quick on the trigger for earlier storms?
"I'd rather have the coverage and the hysteria than no coverage."
Certainly here in San Francisco, we'd all like some advance warning of an earthquake.
Nonetheless, with the information necessary to give such a warning also comes a responsibility. The "safe" course is simply to treat every storm as the "Big One," order a full-state evacuation every time, and then shrug and say "Who knew?" when a storm turns out to be no big deal.
But is that short-sighted? What if you do that every time and people stop taking you seriously? What if that happens and the "Big One" actually does arrive and your warning goes unheeded? Would that unfortunate result make you think that you should have been a bit less quick on the trigger for earlier storms?
4
The other option is to wait and at some point allow a preventable tragedy. What do you think people would say then? And rightfully... Here in Oklahoma, most of us have learned to take tornado warnings seriously. We are adult enough to know that it's unclear whether we'll be hit, and that the warnings are the best meteorologists can do. A lot more of us used to die than die now, that's for sure. It's pretty immature to insist on perfection before taking possible deadly danger seriously, acting on it, and understanding perfectly well why.
13
I wonder if there will be any zoning ordinances such as mandating rebuilding on platforms high above the earth? I doubt it with Republican troglodytes in charge who continue to believe what they want to believe.
3
We already have that.
5
I pray all the people of Florida get past Irma without devastation to life or property. It will be great when it is all over.
Another great reason is so I don't have to watch any more media compete to see who is the biggest idiot to stand in rain and wind or flooded intersections as if that is news.
Another great reason is so I don't have to watch any more media compete to see who is the biggest idiot to stand in rain and wind or flooded intersections as if that is news.
12
Pretty much a nothing burger....the only serious damage will probably be from any tornadoes that touch ground.
4
So you say, from Illinois. The people in Florida might say something else.
12
“The biggest thing you can do now is pray,” Gov. Rick Scott said earlier on Sunday afternoon.
Still insisting that God is real, but climate change isnt. Lets all work to educate people on what evidence and science means.
Still insisting that God is real, but climate change isnt. Lets all work to educate people on what evidence and science means.
50
Angry Sky Wizard sent a Hurricane our way. We are bad. We must pray more. Maybe he'll stop doing it next year.
6
You're missing the point:
"If the hype saves one life it is worth it."
If Florida's governor orders a full-state evacuation for every storm, and every Florida resident decamps to, say, Kansas, then probably the warning will have saved at least "one life" (assuming those Floridians make it safely to Kansas with no fatal car crashes or airplane crashes along the way).
But what will happen next time? Will Floridians dutifully evacuate and head for Kansas again? Or will many of them simply stay put and conclude that Florida officials are simply overhyping the threat? What if Florida residents reach that conclusion and it turns out that the storm in question really IS the "Big One?"
Do these rhetorical questions suggest to you that some "balance" may be called for in these situations?
"If the hype saves one life it is worth it."
If Florida's governor orders a full-state evacuation for every storm, and every Florida resident decamps to, say, Kansas, then probably the warning will have saved at least "one life" (assuming those Floridians make it safely to Kansas with no fatal car crashes or airplane crashes along the way).
But what will happen next time? Will Floridians dutifully evacuate and head for Kansas again? Or will many of them simply stay put and conclude that Florida officials are simply overhyping the threat? What if Florida residents reach that conclusion and it turns out that the storm in question really IS the "Big One?"
Do these rhetorical questions suggest to you that some "balance" may be called for in these situations?
4
A third of the people in Florida would probably feel more at home in Alabama, and another third would feel more at home in Las Vegas. The remaining third would want the worst aspects of both or those places, which is why they are right at home in Florida.
Aside from the destruction, the worst part of these natural disasters is that they usurp or pre-empt the News Cycle. An ongoing story which hasn't received enough coverage here is the item about the nurse who got arrested in Salt Lake City. NBC News has been keeping up on it, and it gets stranger as it develops.
Aside from the destruction, the worst part of these natural disasters is that they usurp or pre-empt the News Cycle. An ongoing story which hasn't received enough coverage here is the item about the nurse who got arrested in Salt Lake City. NBC News has been keeping up on it, and it gets stranger as it develops.
14
What is your some "balance" level? Irma is one of the highest energy storms to hit the US...ever. What is your threshold of a hype/no hype needed switch? Cat 4 no hype, cat 5 hype?
What is your basis for expecting people not to listen in the future?
Seriously, what specifically would you have told the Florida people?
What is your basis for expecting people not to listen in the future?
Seriously, what specifically would you have told the Florida people?
7
Each event, in the end, is unique and demands a unique response. The only way to make a decision is primarily based on the NHC models. Similarity does not guarantee similar outcomes. Unless a weather forecast/prediction is 100% there is the "backside", the minor percent present.
1
Heavy rain and frequent tornado warnings here on Merritt Island, on the east coast near Cape Canaveral. Power went out for two hours and, breathtakingly, was restored by Florida Power & Light. We are boarded up tight in our house. Five o'clock update lists Irma as a Cat 2, with expectation that the eye will pass parallel to us in the middle of the night. We are very, VERY lucky, and are holding those on the west coast close to our hearts.
7
In some places, probably, but not in others:
"There was no television to keep many residents updated..."
A friend who lives in Sarasota writes that he's been watching TV all day (almost all hurricane coverage, he says).
"There was no television to keep many residents updated..."
A friend who lives in Sarasota writes that he's been watching TV all day (almost all hurricane coverage, he says).
5
There are a lot of commenters here slamming "prayer" and degrading those who find comfort in praying.
Why can't they take the approach like when one says: "If you don't like abortion, fine, then don't get one."
There are those who do pray and it consoles them. People who pray know there are no guarantees to anything but it can't hurt.
Some people drag their little unnecessary "comfort" dogs around with them everywhere, including planes and retail stores, and everyone else has to put up with them. Don't conveniently get confused with actual service dogs.
Everyone is free to criticize anything. But slamming people who pray is one of the pettiest things I've heard.
Do those deriding prayer think that Muslims are idiots for praying five times a day?
No? That's different? How? Please explain.
Why can't they take the approach like when one says: "If you don't like abortion, fine, then don't get one."
There are those who do pray and it consoles them. People who pray know there are no guarantees to anything but it can't hurt.
Some people drag their little unnecessary "comfort" dogs around with them everywhere, including planes and retail stores, and everyone else has to put up with them. Don't conveniently get confused with actual service dogs.
Everyone is free to criticize anything. But slamming people who pray is one of the pettiest things I've heard.
Do those deriding prayer think that Muslims are idiots for praying five times a day?
No? That's different? How? Please explain.
12
Ok. I will explain.
Those in the US who want women's rights, abortion rights, gay rights, etc. ... they aren't fighting to get those rights against Muslims who are leading well financed efforts to take them away - they're fighting Christians who do it.
So, when Christian prayer is brought up, that's what it makes people in the US think of. When Muslim prayer is brought up in the US, it's usually because of some story where Christians feel like their rights are being taken away simply because they have to put up with it. Just think of the number of stories about people openly having an issue with a Mosque being built (many), compared to those about Christian churches (almost none).
I would gladly put up with the anual number of Muslim inspired terrorist deaths in the US, in exchange for immediately getting women/gay/trans equal rights (and subtracting Christian inspired hate crime deaths)
So. There you go.
Those in the US who want women's rights, abortion rights, gay rights, etc. ... they aren't fighting to get those rights against Muslims who are leading well financed efforts to take them away - they're fighting Christians who do it.
So, when Christian prayer is brought up, that's what it makes people in the US think of. When Muslim prayer is brought up in the US, it's usually because of some story where Christians feel like their rights are being taken away simply because they have to put up with it. Just think of the number of stories about people openly having an issue with a Mosque being built (many), compared to those about Christian churches (almost none).
I would gladly put up with the anual number of Muslim inspired terrorist deaths in the US, in exchange for immediately getting women/gay/trans equal rights (and subtracting Christian inspired hate crime deaths)
So. There you go.
8
Prayer may work for you and others but it's not gonna help many of us in the end. If a tree falls on my house so be it. God did not push it there.
If it makes you feel good, do it, but don't instruct others to do so.
If it makes you feel good, do it, but don't instruct others to do so.
7
The people who mock you for your religion are sweeping you up in a group of people they don't approve of. They know you might not be like those others but feel that it's okay to scorn you anyway, more convenient. You might be as liberal as they, but they don't care. They don't feel that their unfairness to you is in any way similar to people who sweep up all Muslims to scorn. I've never met a bigoted person of any kind yet who believed that he or she was unfair, who lacked "reasons." You shouldn't expect these people to change.
6
And, little marco VOTED AGAINST Climate Change. Sort of hard to feel pity since Florida and Texas Voted GOP.
16
Stop. You are letting Russia win when you talk like that!
1
This is a big test of our humanity, to look beyond the politics to the human beings. However they stand, and as foolish as we might think their opinions and vote, they are part of us.
Or so say I, a progressive in Austin.
Or so say I, a progressive in Austin.
4
I don't recall the exact year and hurricane name - may be Bob. In the mid 1980s New York City was predicted to get hammered by a hurricane. Everything shut down for the day. All businesses, the stock market, transportation, etc. It turned out to be an absolutely beautiful day. Not a cloud in the NYC sky from dawn till dusk.
I called it the Coup on Corporate America. I was young then.
Until Mother Nature becomes as predictable as Father Time no plan will be 100% precise. It would be ideal but even with failure there's success. Government needs to do its job even in the face of uncertainty. Otherwise we should just shutdown the weather service, disband NOAA and go back to the cave.
I called it the Coup on Corporate America. I was young then.
Until Mother Nature becomes as predictable as Father Time no plan will be 100% precise. It would be ideal but even with failure there's success. Government needs to do its job even in the face of uncertainty. Otherwise we should just shutdown the weather service, disband NOAA and go back to the cave.
8
I think you may be referring to Hurricane Gloria. I was living on the Lower East Side of Manhattan at the time (I'm a native NY'er) and went to my Wall Street clerical job that morning. I was shocked to see that it had closed. I suppose it was before all of the weather hysteria that exists now. I went home and that was that.
Years later, there was a tornado in Brooklyn -- Labor Day 1998 -- where areas of Gravesend Bath Beach and other areas near Coney Island had huge trees down. NO COVERAGE whatsoever. It came out of nowhere. Nowadays, with Twitter, it would be covered. Then -- nothing. This was before Brooklyn turned into a hipster paradise and houses are selling for $$$.
I'd rather have the coverage and the hysteria than no coverage.
Years later, there was a tornado in Brooklyn -- Labor Day 1998 -- where areas of Gravesend Bath Beach and other areas near Coney Island had huge trees down. NO COVERAGE whatsoever. It came out of nowhere. Nowadays, with Twitter, it would be covered. Then -- nothing. This was before Brooklyn turned into a hipster paradise and houses are selling for $$$.
I'd rather have the coverage and the hysteria than no coverage.
5
Those on Cape Cod remember Bob all too well.
That's not really the question:
"How will we know when the Big One arrives? Will they tell us?"
Of course they'll tell you, just as they did this time. The question is whether people will LISTEN. The "better safe than sorry" course is for officials to order an evacuation for every hurricane. But that poses a risk that residents will start ignoring official warnings -- including a warning issued when the "Big One" really does hit.
Maybe ordering the evacuation of 6+ million people was a bit excessive here -- "safe" for officials this time, to be sure, but perhaps dangerous for Floridians in the long run.
"How will we know when the Big One arrives? Will they tell us?"
Of course they'll tell you, just as they did this time. The question is whether people will LISTEN. The "better safe than sorry" course is for officials to order an evacuation for every hurricane. But that poses a risk that residents will start ignoring official warnings -- including a warning issued when the "Big One" really does hit.
Maybe ordering the evacuation of 6+ million people was a bit excessive here -- "safe" for officials this time, to be sure, but perhaps dangerous for Floridians in the long run.
1
I can imagine what these unfortunate people are going through right now. The winds and rains are causing havoc and they do not know if they will have homes in which to return. This hurricane has affected such a large part of Florida and few will probably be spared extensive damage. The devastation will be enormous and they will need our help. My heart goes out to these people and they are in my thoughts and prayers. I hope there is no loss of lives as property can always be replaced but humans cannot.
34
This reminds me of an "inconvenient truth" I saw several years ago that so many religious Americans mocked and laughed at. No matter what God you believe in, the inconvenient truth of man-caused climate change is no laughing matter.
20
Every report on more frequent, more intense storms MUST be linked to climate change. Rick Scott and all the republican climate change deniers must be held accountable for their denial, inaction, and disinformation on this most critical issue. They are responsible for the inaction that has put their constituents lives at risk. It is time to hold them accountable. And it is time to take long-awaited much needed action to reduce fossil fuels and transition to a renewable energy, energy-efficient economy. I am very worried about my friends and family in Florida, and very frustrated about the inaction on climate change. I've been doing climate change education since 2000. We have lost many critical years due to the influence of the fossil fuel industry on way too many politicians in the U.S.
16
Florida Keys, and other parts of Florida, will survive and do okay. Hopefully many of the Conservative guys, (and some of their women), will stop cheating the system to claim all kinds of money, aid, assistance and funds...that gives them more than they need, or more than what was damaged by the hurricane.
Look at the devastation in many of the Caribbean Islands where Americans and other Europeans vacation often. There has been 95% destruction on Barbudo, and the Caicos and Turks are now unrecognizable.
Mexico, that has been derided and insulted by so many Americans and their leaders, has suffered not only several hurricanes, and many severe storms, since June 2017....but an 8.1 magnitude earthquake struck Mexico two days ago and has killed more than 90 people. More deaths are expected.
Put everything in perspective, and stop rebuilding expensive condos and penthouses in flood planes, coastal areas, storm surge zones...The damage in Florida is not that much, and much of it will be repaired or replaced in a few days or a few weeks.
Think of those people who have nothing in developing nations that Americans make fun of as "inferior or uncivilized"...because they got punched in the face over and over again by intense huge natural disasters that they did not create or contribute to?
Maybe this will teach the US some humility and a bit more awareness of the world they are part of. I doubt it. As certain patterns take a very long time to break.
Look at the devastation in many of the Caribbean Islands where Americans and other Europeans vacation often. There has been 95% destruction on Barbudo, and the Caicos and Turks are now unrecognizable.
Mexico, that has been derided and insulted by so many Americans and their leaders, has suffered not only several hurricanes, and many severe storms, since June 2017....but an 8.1 magnitude earthquake struck Mexico two days ago and has killed more than 90 people. More deaths are expected.
Put everything in perspective, and stop rebuilding expensive condos and penthouses in flood planes, coastal areas, storm surge zones...The damage in Florida is not that much, and much of it will be repaired or replaced in a few days or a few weeks.
Think of those people who have nothing in developing nations that Americans make fun of as "inferior or uncivilized"...because they got punched in the face over and over again by intense huge natural disasters that they did not create or contribute to?
Maybe this will teach the US some humility and a bit more awareness of the world they are part of. I doubt it. As certain patterns take a very long time to break.
22
Goodbye Florida. Lots of great memories. Too bad you are located on a porous piece of low lying coral, surrounded by a warming ocean, and run by climate denying republicans.
30
Florida will survive. There have been other hurricanes in the state. Florida is not saying goodbye.
4
Agree. Have you seen the #floridaman twitter feed?! It takes a lot to kill Floridians.
1
You guys do realize that the "all we can do is pray" comment was made Sunday afternoon, after the storm made landfall. if you live there, whether you are riding it out or hoping your home Isn't demolished, there is nothing else you can do. As far as I can tell, most people did prepare. Officials prepared. The infrastructure is prepared. But when that kind of storm actually hits, it's completely out of your hands. So if praying makes people feel better, by all means pray. (and no, I am not religious)
6
So saying "all we can do is pray" is like saying "there nothing more that we can do."
Not only that, but YOU will be paying for it!
"...it's all going to be rebuilt in the same stupid locations by the beaches..."
As many readers know from another NYT article about a week back, the federal government got into the flood insurance business after (most) private insurance companies stopped offering flood insurance policies in 1968. At the moment, there are about 5 million of such policies in effect. Most are held by owners of flood-vulnerable homes on a coast, and -- yes -- many of those coastal homes have been built with funds paid out on flood insurance policies covering homes previously located in the very same spot.
It's almost certain, of course, that some of those flood-insurance policy holders are poor people. But, getting back to reality for a moment, how many poor people do you know who own homes on a coast?
Private insurance companies got out of the flood insurance business because they concluded that few homeowners were willing to pay the high premiums required to fund the risk that the insurance companies were taking. The federal government, it appears, doesn't have this concern. And so you -- and I and other Americans -- are subsidizing flood insurance for people who own homes along the coast.
Makes sense, I guess. Doesn't it?
"...it's all going to be rebuilt in the same stupid locations by the beaches..."
As many readers know from another NYT article about a week back, the federal government got into the flood insurance business after (most) private insurance companies stopped offering flood insurance policies in 1968. At the moment, there are about 5 million of such policies in effect. Most are held by owners of flood-vulnerable homes on a coast, and -- yes -- many of those coastal homes have been built with funds paid out on flood insurance policies covering homes previously located in the very same spot.
It's almost certain, of course, that some of those flood-insurance policy holders are poor people. But, getting back to reality for a moment, how many poor people do you know who own homes on a coast?
Private insurance companies got out of the flood insurance business because they concluded that few homeowners were willing to pay the high premiums required to fund the risk that the insurance companies were taking. The federal government, it appears, doesn't have this concern. And so you -- and I and other Americans -- are subsidizing flood insurance for people who own homes along the coast.
Makes sense, I guess. Doesn't it?
12
America: capitalising profits, socializing risk. Either admit you live in a socialist county or live like a real free market capitalist.
6
Why can your government insure wealthy beach side home owners against storms but not the rest of the population against ill health?
11
No, it doesn't make sense. Coastal properties are not the ones that suffer repetitive severe losses, it is those built in floodplains. We on the coast subsidize those who don't when it comes to flood insurance coverage.
1
Those who pray, please do so. Those who don't stay sober.
4
Gee, what about those of us who don't drink and don't believe either.
8
Malt does more than Milton can to justify God's ways to man.
4
No problem, Sarah. There are many of us who'll take care of those things for you...
3
Our newest athletes: hurricane correspondents.
8
Just thinking: There is a vast pool of labor in Mexico very willing to help in the reconstruction of your damaged states.
11
Oh those hypocrites know. After natural disasters they have relaxed immigration in the past. The reporting on Texas and migrant labor is hilarious right now. Just after passing a bunch of racist laws they are trying to figure out how to take advantage of the people that they fear are taking their jobs.
6
God bless 'em; they've got their own messes to deal with. 8.2 earthquake, Katia hurricane....
3
How about our own "vast pool of labor" who are currently doing nothing? ... And I'm not referring to the involuntarily unemployed...
2
you gotta love the ex post facto Monday morning quarterbacking of some of the commenters- you got a hurricane the size of Belgium bearing down on a heavily populated peninsula where there has been no effective land use planning and total disregard for warnings - short term and long term- include global warming there- and a plea to God to save the situation,what would you do? It makes sense to get as many people out as possible. Will a higher power part the Red Sea or will good sense prevail?
18
If it's any consolation...
"No need to evacuate 6M people."
According to a friend who lives in Sarasota, most residents simply ignored the evacuation "order" (which, it appears, wasn't mandatory except for the Keys), and so the disruption of this "false alarm" doesn't seem to have been all that great (reports of traffic-jammed freeways notwithstanding). The bigger risk, as Dan Stackhouse noted, is the "boy who cried wolf" phenomenon: that Florida residents will get in the habit of ignoring official warnings, so that when the "big one" really does hit, they'll not take appropriate precautions and avoidable deaths, injuries and property damage will occur.
Hard to fault officials for taking the "better safe than sorry" approach here, but they should give some thought to the risk of OVER-hyping a threat. That could hurt people next time.
"No need to evacuate 6M people."
According to a friend who lives in Sarasota, most residents simply ignored the evacuation "order" (which, it appears, wasn't mandatory except for the Keys), and so the disruption of this "false alarm" doesn't seem to have been all that great (reports of traffic-jammed freeways notwithstanding). The bigger risk, as Dan Stackhouse noted, is the "boy who cried wolf" phenomenon: that Florida residents will get in the habit of ignoring official warnings, so that when the "big one" really does hit, they'll not take appropriate precautions and avoidable deaths, injuries and property damage will occur.
Hard to fault officials for taking the "better safe than sorry" approach here, but they should give some thought to the risk of OVER-hyping a threat. That could hurt people next time.
2
THIS ONE looks pretty darned BIG and the storm surge hasn't even started
8
I'm in Florida. when we need your opinion on earthquakes, we'll call you in San Francisco. When it comes to hurricanes, we'll keep our own counsel, thanks for your input.
8
And the Sheriff from Charlotte County, City of Punta Gorda, just called into one of the news programs and said calls for help from the general public are stacking up yet due to the current conditions they cannot help anyone.
2
All all we can do is pray??
Wow, really?
I think that we can--and must--do a lot more: let's show all the climate change deniers the door.
And we can do a lot less. Not all of his constituents, or all of us who care a great deal about them, are believers.
Wow, really?
I think that we can--and must--do a lot more: let's show all the climate change deniers the door.
And we can do a lot less. Not all of his constituents, or all of us who care a great deal about them, are believers.
18
The climate always changes. Dispute is why?
1
No dispute except for those who want to ignore evidence. CO2 warms the atmosphere by absorbing more sunlight. A warmer atmosphere warms the oceans which comprise most of the planets surface. Warmer oceans expand and sea level rises. Warmer oceans melt the iced areas of the arctic and antarctic adding to sea level rise. The also are energy sources for more severe hurricanes.
The warming has been observed over decades and all the data shows that man is causing a large portion of the rise, but let us say you do not believe that. No matter what the cause of the rise two facts remain. 1)We dump huge amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere which adds to warming. 2) If we reduced our contribution of CO2 than global warming would slow down even if you believe that "natural" causes are leading to the warming.
The warming has been observed over decades and all the data shows that man is causing a large portion of the rise, but let us say you do not believe that. No matter what the cause of the rise two facts remain. 1)We dump huge amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere which adds to warming. 2) If we reduced our contribution of CO2 than global warming would slow down even if you believe that "natural" causes are leading to the warming.
6
First of all, it's "Stackhouse," not "Steakhouse" (sorry, Dan: I didn't notice that the Times had "corrected" my spelling of your name) who pointed out that over-hyping a threat can have serious consequences.
Second, we may already be seeing such consequences. Many west-coast-Florida residents appear to have ignored Governor Scott's evacuation "order" even this time (though I understand that "order" was mandatory only for the Keys, and so the Time may simply have overstated that a bit). Scott's evacuation "order" doesn't appear to have yielded any bad results -- this time -- but what if Florida residents get into a habit of simply ignoring such warnings and the "big one" does hit? Avoidable deaths, injuries and/or property damage could result if people ignore official warnings based on prior experience.
Second, we may already be seeing such consequences. Many west-coast-Florida residents appear to have ignored Governor Scott's evacuation "order" even this time (though I understand that "order" was mandatory only for the Keys, and so the Time may simply have overstated that a bit). Scott's evacuation "order" doesn't appear to have yielded any bad results -- this time -- but what if Florida residents get into a habit of simply ignoring such warnings and the "big one" does hit? Avoidable deaths, injuries and/or property damage could result if people ignore official warnings based on prior experience.
2
Hehe, thanks again, and I agree completely.
2
This hurricane is not a laughing matter. And it is certainly not finished yet.
As previously posted, this is one of the largest and most energetic storms ever to hit the US. What is the "overhyped" part?
If the hype saves one life it is worth it.
As previously posted, this is one of the largest and most energetic storms ever to hit the US. What is the "overhyped" part?
If the hype saves one life it is worth it.
6
Dear Glennmr,
Everything's a laughing matter, viewed correctly. Got to keep a sense of humor or we go insane. This storm was the largest storm, days ago, now it is just another category 3 hurricane. Its initial path would have been much more destructive, the actual path is not turning out to be so bad.
Basically it's been awhile since we've had two large storms hit in a row like this, and people are getting a little carried away with the fearmongering. And everyone that was pushed to evacuate, who comes back to an undamaged house, is going to be resistant to evac orders next time. And next time might really be a majorly destructive storm, like Katrina; this one is not.
Everything's a laughing matter, viewed correctly. Got to keep a sense of humor or we go insane. This storm was the largest storm, days ago, now it is just another category 3 hurricane. Its initial path would have been much more destructive, the actual path is not turning out to be so bad.
Basically it's been awhile since we've had two large storms hit in a row like this, and people are getting a little carried away with the fearmongering. And everyone that was pushed to evacuate, who comes back to an undamaged house, is going to be resistant to evac orders next time. And next time might really be a majorly destructive storm, like Katrina; this one is not.
2
Is this the "Big One" we've been hearing about for some many years? ("The big one is coming," they keep telling us.)
Or was that Harvey?
How will we know when the Big One arrives? Will they tell us? Will we even be alive to appreciate that that was the Big One? (All that fuss, and no one around to appreciate it.)
Or are they talking about a nuclear bomb? And is an A-bomb the big one, or does it have to be an H-bomb?
Who decides these things? The people at the weather center? The Pentagon? Ivanka?
Or was that Harvey?
How will we know when the Big One arrives? Will they tell us? Will we even be alive to appreciate that that was the Big One? (All that fuss, and no one around to appreciate it.)
Or are they talking about a nuclear bomb? And is an A-bomb the big one, or does it have to be an H-bomb?
Who decides these things? The people at the weather center? The Pentagon? Ivanka?
5
I think "THE Big One" is a term used in west coast earthquake country. I don't see how it applies to hurricanes. However, Irma and other hurricanes can be just as destructive to life and property.
2
Pray? well I hope holy Mar-al-Lago will not be blemished by all that foreign water.
8
Pray he commits insurance fraud and gets impeached.
5
It's not insurance fraud when the President does it and pardons himself.
3
Officials DO face a dilemma!
"Evacuations are high cost and must be initiated days ahead of landfall, if populated urban areas are involved."
If you DON'T order an evacuation and it turns out that an evacuation would have saved lives and reduced property damage, you will (rightly) be blamed. On he other hand, if you are too quick to order an evacuation for every storm, eventually residents will stop taking you seriously, in which case there may be avoidable deaths and property damage when a big storm really does hit.
Tough for officials to strike the proper balance. All you can ask for is that they do their best. (I would NOT, however, enforce penalties against any resident who ignored an evacuation order that turned out to have been unwarranted.)
"Evacuations are high cost and must be initiated days ahead of landfall, if populated urban areas are involved."
If you DON'T order an evacuation and it turns out that an evacuation would have saved lives and reduced property damage, you will (rightly) be blamed. On he other hand, if you are too quick to order an evacuation for every storm, eventually residents will stop taking you seriously, in which case there may be avoidable deaths and property damage when a big storm really does hit.
Tough for officials to strike the proper balance. All you can ask for is that they do their best. (I would NOT, however, enforce penalties against any resident who ignored an evacuation order that turned out to have been unwarranted.)
5
Irma was and still is a dangerous storm...but only in certain confined areas. There was no need for mass evacuations and I am hopeful in post analysis there will be a "reset" on how to prepare for this type of storm. Consider:
-As catastrophic as Irma was in the lesser Antilles was there was *zero chance* the storm would look anything like that 3-days later well after peaking and tracking over PR.
-Danger in Irma was always going to be storm surge. 100mph winds in hurricane country don't do anything but tip over a few trees and make TV meteorologists look ridiculous...There was *never* anything particularly threatening in the precip field (unlike Harvey)...so the only hazard that really had to be mitigated was the surge. As such the "evacuation plane* would have been something like:
1. Require mandatory evacuation in the potential inundation zones (use the NHC/Storm Surge potential maps here http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/152748.shtml?inundati... )
2. Be sure critical care facilities that *don't* have back-up power supply have a plan for several days without power to include possibly relocating patients/residents.
3. Everyone else...be sure you have plenty of water and batteries (if you don't have a generator...something I personally would not be without in hurricane country) and *shelter in place*.
No need to evacuate 6M people.
-As catastrophic as Irma was in the lesser Antilles was there was *zero chance* the storm would look anything like that 3-days later well after peaking and tracking over PR.
-Danger in Irma was always going to be storm surge. 100mph winds in hurricane country don't do anything but tip over a few trees and make TV meteorologists look ridiculous...There was *never* anything particularly threatening in the precip field (unlike Harvey)...so the only hazard that really had to be mitigated was the surge. As such the "evacuation plane* would have been something like:
1. Require mandatory evacuation in the potential inundation zones (use the NHC/Storm Surge potential maps here http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/152748.shtml?inundati... )
2. Be sure critical care facilities that *don't* have back-up power supply have a plan for several days without power to include possibly relocating patients/residents.
3. Everyone else...be sure you have plenty of water and batteries (if you don't have a generator...something I personally would not be without in hurricane country) and *shelter in place*.
No need to evacuate 6M people.
3
Wait a minute here NYT! Naples, Sarasota, and other highly populated areas will get a direct hit before St. Pete. In fact, the further up the coast, the less the hazard. Not to say that St. Pete isn't vulnerable. Naples is about to get the eye of the storm when it is at its peak.
Another issue that has been hardly mentioned: FL is filled with trailers, mobile homes and RVs. People live year round in many of these. These types of homes are going to get creamed.
Another issue that has been hardly mentioned: FL is filled with trailers, mobile homes and RVs. People live year round in many of these. These types of homes are going to get creamed.
13
Climate changes are real...now how's that working for you now?
3
If hope these Florida folks escape without losing it all. I'll also be "praying" that they and their governor come to their senses and realize that climate change is real and that more horrific storms like Irma will be aiming their way.
17
Seems like overpopulation, overdeveloped cities and poor political decisions bear more of the blame than climate change.
"...Biigest Thing to Do is Pray, Florida Governor Says"?
When Rick Perry was governor of Texas, which had a drought, Perry asked everyone to pray for rain. Look how that worked out for Texas.
Too much praying; but not enough listening to scientists who spend their entire careers studying a topic to help us understand what is going on in order to develop solutions to serious problems. Instead of praying, maybe Texas and Florida should try planning, zoning, respect for nature and wetlands, regulation, and enforcement.
How about "Heaven helps those who help themselves!"
Listen to 98% of the climate scientists, stop politicizing an issue that never should be politicized just to keep those fossil fuel dollars rolling into political campaign war chests, and plan for a healthy society for the next generations of children.
When Rick Perry was governor of Texas, which had a drought, Perry asked everyone to pray for rain. Look how that worked out for Texas.
Too much praying; but not enough listening to scientists who spend their entire careers studying a topic to help us understand what is going on in order to develop solutions to serious problems. Instead of praying, maybe Texas and Florida should try planning, zoning, respect for nature and wetlands, regulation, and enforcement.
How about "Heaven helps those who help themselves!"
Listen to 98% of the climate scientists, stop politicizing an issue that never should be politicized just to keep those fossil fuel dollars rolling into political campaign war chests, and plan for a healthy society for the next generations of children.
26
What a ridiculous thing to say. Praying for rain didn't cause the Hurricane and it would have happened with or without signing into Paris Climate agreement. Nothing, and I mean NOTHING can stop what is going to happen, if that's the fate of earth. Prayers certainly can help, but God is asking for turning from sin, before He stops disasters.
Can your Climate Change stop Volcano eruptions? How about Earthquakes? How about Forest Fires?
It's important to be responsible but to voice that this whole Paris Acvord would stop these disasters is ridiculous.
Can your Climate Change stop Volcano eruptions? How about Earthquakes? How about Forest Fires?
It's important to be responsible but to voice that this whole Paris Acvord would stop these disasters is ridiculous.
3
"but God is asking for turning from sin, before He stops disasters."
How do you know that, siteunseen?
How do you know that, siteunseen?
1
There's no sin. We evolved as high thinking primates a mix of nasty and good. We learned that cooperation was good and helped us to survive. Being nasty helped too. This does not necessarily negate God. it just might show a God who likes surprises and a live and let live sort of attitude.
1
I friend in Sarasota, Fal posted this on FB about an hour ago:
"To borrow the first line to one of Stephen Stills best songs: "And so begins the task I have dreaded the coming of for so long".
The ride has begun. Wish us luck."
"To borrow the first line to one of Stephen Stills best songs: "And so begins the task I have dreaded the coming of for so long".
The ride has begun. Wish us luck."
10
Praying is not about asking what you want from God. It is about humbling yourself and listening to what He is telling you through the forces of Nature and acting accordingly. For the sake of our survival and our happiness, science, reason, love and compassion are the tools we were given to both understand Nature and to develop ways to react to it.
It is so disheartening to see selfish political leaders tainting the beautiful potential of religion to do good for the people of world. They are like rebellious children telling us that we need not behave, and that we will get our reward if we just keep asking.
It is so disheartening to see selfish political leaders tainting the beautiful potential of religion to do good for the people of world. They are like rebellious children telling us that we need not behave, and that we will get our reward if we just keep asking.
11
Jesus said, "A humble and contrite heart I will not spurn." He's asking for life changing attitudes from his rebellious and disobedient children.
2
Harvey, Irma, Jose, Katia
I'm real tired of hearing all the silly "god talk" from officials like FL Gov - "all we can do now is pray" -- Pres Trump -- "god bless us all." If they were really believers in influence of a god, they would admit that their god (it still is Jupiter in my book) deliberately did this to the country (since they refuse to accept man-caused climate change). Instead of prayers, better building codes might be useful in the future plus not being so arrogant about how it's all going to be rebuilt in the same stupid locations by the beaches, flood zones, dikes and river banks. Miami really is in the wrong place along with a lot of the rest of the east coast. Urban planning anticipating and incorporating the concept of future massive climate change for coastal regions -- don’t they get this message from their god? And hopefully after intelligent urban planning, there won't be enough money left for Trump's idiotic wall.
I'm real tired of hearing all the silly "god talk" from officials like FL Gov - "all we can do now is pray" -- Pres Trump -- "god bless us all." If they were really believers in influence of a god, they would admit that their god (it still is Jupiter in my book) deliberately did this to the country (since they refuse to accept man-caused climate change). Instead of prayers, better building codes might be useful in the future plus not being so arrogant about how it's all going to be rebuilt in the same stupid locations by the beaches, flood zones, dikes and river banks. Miami really is in the wrong place along with a lot of the rest of the east coast. Urban planning anticipating and incorporating the concept of future massive climate change for coastal regions -- don’t they get this message from their god? And hopefully after intelligent urban planning, there won't be enough money left for Trump's idiotic wall.
18
When man goes against God, nature goes against man...ponder that one for awhile my friend.
3
And forty percent of weekdays occur on Monday and Friday. Ponder that.
5
You guys pray. I'll take a one week camping trip to the Ozarks. We'll see who fares better.
10
Pray? The biggest thing during a natural disaster?
This makes an elected official sound clueless and unprepared. 'Pray'... may as well say 'panic'.
This makes an elected official sound clueless and unprepared. 'Pray'... may as well say 'panic'.
9
You can panic, I'll pray. See who comes out alive in the end.
2
The point is not to pray or panic, but plan and prepare. Praying is likely as effective as panicking.
2
"[Tampa's] Mayor Implying a Cat 3-5 storm driving up the Gulf Coast is some sort of Black Swan event will not cut it."
Good point. Although it's been 25 years (and counting, now that Irma is listed as a Category 3 storm) since the US mainland has been hit by a Category 5 storm, Category 3 storms (for example, Irma and Harvey) hit the mainland fairly often. Seems like Tampa should be prepared for them.
Good point. Although it's been 25 years (and counting, now that Irma is listed as a Category 3 storm) since the US mainland has been hit by a Category 5 storm, Category 3 storms (for example, Irma and Harvey) hit the mainland fairly often. Seems like Tampa should be prepared for them.
5
Last major storm to hit here was 1927. Mayor Bob knows of what he speaks.
Kinda makes you wonder, doesn't it?
"...it's only a matter of time before much of the state is underwater."
Why do coastal properties keep rising in price, often more than average? Don't these rich people who buy the coastal properties know they'll be under water pretty soon? They must be pretty stupid. Maybe you could earn some money by going down to Florida and explaining this to them.
"...it's only a matter of time before much of the state is underwater."
Why do coastal properties keep rising in price, often more than average? Don't these rich people who buy the coastal properties know they'll be under water pretty soon? They must be pretty stupid. Maybe you could earn some money by going down to Florida and explaining this to them.
7
Not everyone who lives on Florida's coast is rich. Actually, many are not. The ones who are can easily rebuild.
5
Maybe they don't care. They can afford good insurance and they can rebuild
2
This is what Dan Steakhouse (wisely) predicted:
"...For me over coverage cheapens the news..."
Better to be "safe than sorry," we all agree, BUT overstating a threat can also produce a dangerous "boy who cried wolf" result. If Florida residents henceforth ignore warnings of truly dangerous hurricanes, they might experience some deaths and/or property damage that could have been avoided. Perhaps the authorities should try to strike a balance: warn of the danger but don't order evacuations every time.
Always nice to get a warning, but this could be an example of information being a dangerous thing. As someone pointed out, those who live in tornado areas are lucky to get 5 minutes' warning, rather than 5 days, and even that's 5 minutes more than the warning we get out here before an earthquake.
"...For me over coverage cheapens the news..."
Better to be "safe than sorry," we all agree, BUT overstating a threat can also produce a dangerous "boy who cried wolf" result. If Florida residents henceforth ignore warnings of truly dangerous hurricanes, they might experience some deaths and/or property damage that could have been avoided. Perhaps the authorities should try to strike a balance: warn of the danger but don't order evacuations every time.
Always nice to get a warning, but this could be an example of information being a dangerous thing. As someone pointed out, those who live in tornado areas are lucky to get 5 minutes' warning, rather than 5 days, and even that's 5 minutes more than the warning we get out here before an earthquake.
2
Thanks, but no offense, it's Stackhouse. And I think that's going to be an unfortunate outcome here, people are not going to listen to the next dire warnings, and next time they may be accurate.
2
Definitely a hoax.
Yeah that crane that just collapsed into a building in Miami is an optical illusion
8
As I sit here enjoying an absolutely lovely early fall afternoon, I am sick at heart for those in the middle of Irma. I am so frightened for them. May they come through this safe and sound, and their recovery be swift.
17
Frightened for them? The folks in the video sound positively giddy.
Look, as homo sapiens, we make a choice. In this case, residents of the affected areas choose sunshine and lovely weather 9 months out of the year.
Then for three months, they pay the piper.
I do not feel sorry for them, at all.
Look, as homo sapiens, we make a choice. In this case, residents of the affected areas choose sunshine and lovely weather 9 months out of the year.
Then for three months, they pay the piper.
I do not feel sorry for them, at all.
3
Me too, and "Amen".
1
You are absolutely right. Heaven forfend we show any trace of humanity here. We all take the good with the bad no matter where we live. What was I possibly thinking?!?!
3
Hurricane Irma will pale in comparison to the hurricanes we will be seeing by the middle of this century.
10
Do you mean after scientists geoengineer an "umbrella" in space to block the sun? Yeah, that won't cause more problems than the global warming it is designed to reduce. *sarcasm*
2
“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face,” says Tampa mayor Buckhorn. Hmm. If you get in the ring, you better have a plan for getting punched in the face, Mr. Mayor Implying a Cat 3-5 storm driving up the Gulf Coast is some sort of Black Swan event will not cut it. We'll be seeing how Tampa's plan works in a few hrs; good news for them that the latest surge forecasts are much better than those this morning.
I disagree with the comments criticizing Gov Scott's evacuation warnings. Evacuations are high cost and must be initiated days ahead of landfall, if populated urban areas are involved. Vulnerable populations must be given even more notice. All of the models justified the evacuation orders when they issued for S FL. Storm surge, if not wind damage, may justify the evacuation of SE FL residents from coastal high hazard areas anyhow.
Models project track, intensity and speed of storm better, it seems, than surge, which depends on a lot of things. Yet, surge may be the most dangerous hurricane threat to human life. I didn't get the impression that the media covered the risk of surge like the risk of high winds, esp relative to the extremely low elevations in coastal SW FL. Maybe more public education is necessary, even in schools. but esp clever PSAs, billboards, etc.
We await 80 mph sustained winds in N FL tomorrow morning, but I am much more worried about the people of SW FL who will be undergoing storm surge over the next several hrs.
I disagree with the comments criticizing Gov Scott's evacuation warnings. Evacuations are high cost and must be initiated days ahead of landfall, if populated urban areas are involved. Vulnerable populations must be given even more notice. All of the models justified the evacuation orders when they issued for S FL. Storm surge, if not wind damage, may justify the evacuation of SE FL residents from coastal high hazard areas anyhow.
Models project track, intensity and speed of storm better, it seems, than surge, which depends on a lot of things. Yet, surge may be the most dangerous hurricane threat to human life. I didn't get the impression that the media covered the risk of surge like the risk of high winds, esp relative to the extremely low elevations in coastal SW FL. Maybe more public education is necessary, even in schools. but esp clever PSAs, billboards, etc.
We await 80 mph sustained winds in N FL tomorrow morning, but I am much more worried about the people of SW FL who will be undergoing storm surge over the next several hrs.
5
"Irma: The Motion Picture/Reality Show!" For all but those who live in Florida, between CNN and MSNBC (and Fox?), this has to be great entertainment. "Which correspondent can get the wettest?" "Which correspondent can stay relatively upright and unaided in the strongest winds?" "Which correspondent can say what hasn't already been said a million times since 0600 hrs EDT?"
And here I am in boring, blue-sky, gentle-breeze New Mexico.
Ain't America great?
And here I am in boring, blue-sky, gentle-breeze New Mexico.
Ain't America great?
14
This hurricane is not like Andrew or Katrina those storms were direct hits, Irma spent its entire life just grazing the coast of every territory it hit. Condolences to all those who lost loved ones.
4
My daughter had a choice of medical schools to attend this fall; she chose Univ of Miami Medical School. I had wanted her to go to Yale.
5
Should pick something central.
1
New building code for Hurricane-prone arras: All homes must be constructed with re-enforced concrete, including the roof. After a hurricane/flood, you simply clean the old destroyed interior construction out, clean and sterilize the interior concrete, replace as necessary and move back in....better than rebuilding the entire structure. New culture....a hurricane becomes the main reason for that remodel you always wanted.
4
Not necessary, and certainly not green given the amount of coal burned to make concrete. Deltec and other homes are survivable, and all new construction must be elevated at least 10' above ground.
1
limestone blocks...use what you've got....how much coal is burned rebuilding a city?
“The biggest thing you can do now is pray,” Gov. Rick Scott said on Sunday afternoon.
Really? "The biggest thing"?
There are many more productive activities that could reduce damage and risk.
Quietly meditating, talking to yourself, or otherwise doing nothing is not "the biggest thing" you could be doing.
Really? "The biggest thing"?
There are many more productive activities that could reduce damage and risk.
Quietly meditating, talking to yourself, or otherwise doing nothing is not "the biggest thing" you could be doing.
27
No, praying is also a good thing. Along with meditating, etc. and petting your dog.
2
Wonder how many babies we'll see in Florida nine months from now.
1
All the hurricane prone states should switch to Metric.
Then in 2018, ALL of them can say "this has never happened here in this scale before" -- Blame the sissy Metric scale and not have to address climate change.
Then in 2018, ALL of them can say "this has never happened here in this scale before" -- Blame the sissy Metric scale and not have to address climate change.
5
It will be interesting to see how many "small government" and "low tax" Republicans demand federal support when all this is over.
33
Republicans pay the same federal income tax as Democrats. They are entitled to the same federal disaster relief.
This has nothing to do with politics.
This has nothing to do with politics.
3
To paraphrase the Times: "Florida exists because of air conditioning, bug spray, Social Security (and low taxes; my addition.) No more national credit card for the rebuilding: Let's ask for tax increases in Fl. and TX if federal aid is sought, and a temporary increase in federal taxes to pay off this calamity; however, the local tax effort must, in good faith, increase greatly. How about appropriate zoning and building codes before federal taxpayers are asked to "buy in." I'm happy to help, tax wise, but I want some wise conditions imposed in states where lax building codes and zoning have greatly contributed to this situation.
6
agree
2
I grew up in Florida, on an island, and we sometimes had to board our home and leave -but not like this. My family lives in the must-evacuate A-zone and one of those homes was left with only one standing wall after Andrew hit in 92. I can't, for the life of me, understand WHY people STILL live near the water in Florida. That was great in the past but, according to the science, it's only a matter of time before much of the state is underwater.
The people driving north that live near the water -it seems sensible to head back for your things, cut your losses, sell your homes, and move out of the state.
The people driving north that live near the water -it seems sensible to head back for your things, cut your losses, sell your homes, and move out of the state.
13
How could anyone who grew up on the beach in Florida not understand why people still want to live here?
2
Is it fair to say that the key word might be "live"?
4
Let's remove the subsidies and favoritism from the coal and oil industries, and spend vast infrastructure money on Solar and Wind. Coal fired political grandstanding won't cut it anymore. Let Science lead.
29
That picture shown here, in terms of demonstrating the force and danger of Irma, is far from convincing. Go to Europe and from France to Denmark along the North Sea locals would define this as a nice day for a stroll.
6
Along with the terrible horror for human beings and for domesticated animals (I hope no one left their animals behind), I fear for the gorgeous colony of frigate birds who have sanctuary on Barbuda. Wonder what happened to them. They are beautiful, fascinating birds with a legendary history.
6
Well, frigate birds are fairly comfortable out at sea for long periods - those kinds of birds, like albatross, are called pelagic. With luck, they headed out to an area of the Atlantic that's not being hammered, and they'll come back after days or weeks at sea.
2
Just for the record, it's now 2:32PM in downtown Orlando, and while the rain is definitely falling heavily in passing squalls, the wind has hardly "intensified" at all... just occasional puffs I would (as a lifelong sailor) estimate at about Force 4 (11-18mph) so far.
Not to say that it won't get worse. Much worse. But let's not get carried away with our reporting until it's time to do so :-)
Not to say that it won't get worse. Much worse. But let's not get carried away with our reporting until it's time to do so :-)
13
Apparently this has happened before. I've heard of other occasions when there's been a lull before the storm.
6
Definitely not retiring in Florida.
37
Let's cut to the core here. Governor Scott told all those evacuees to go to some other location in the state. Many (most?) headed to the west coast. Now guess what? They are all trying to get to Miami again - a least those who haven't taken places in shelters in the west coast counties.
9
Please cite the source wherein the governor told residents to go to other locations in the state of Florida, when both coasts were under a watch/warning.
16
Apparently there are already 3 deaths in the Keys. To all of those that said that the storm was overhyped, please raise your hands now.
15
Dear Phil,
Yup, I said it was overhyped, and I still say that. Three deaths from the hardest hit area in the U.S. is, basically, extremely low casualties. If this storm caused 500 deaths, then the hype would have been accurate. It's not going to come anywhere near that.
Additionally, everyone knew the Keys were the most vulnerable to storms and there was a mandatory evacuation. I can't have much sympathy for these casualties either, sorry.
Yup, I said it was overhyped, and I still say that. Three deaths from the hardest hit area in the U.S. is, basically, extremely low casualties. If this storm caused 500 deaths, then the hype would have been accurate. It's not going to come anywhere near that.
Additionally, everyone knew the Keys were the most vulnerable to storms and there was a mandatory evacuation. I can't have much sympathy for these casualties either, sorry.
1
And just think: had those three opted to use their brains and live somewhere less imperiled, they'd still be alive today.
1
Dan
Since this is one of the largest and most energetic storms to ever hit the US, what was the "overhyped" part?
It still has a long way to go and the hype, even if it saves one life, is justified based on the size of this storm.
Since this is one of the largest and most energetic storms to ever hit the US, what was the "overhyped" part?
It still has a long way to go and the hype, even if it saves one life, is justified based on the size of this storm.
5
Nothing to worry about - conservative talk radio icon Rush Limbaugh claimed the hurricane coverage was just a liberal hoax as he evacuated his house.
102
Pray if you are so inclined. Alternatively, hope. In any event, do what you can to assist the needy after this disaster.
But try not to use this occasion to play amateur scientist to attribute a specific catastrophe to climate change, or refer to worse storms eighty years ago to somehow "prove" the opposite. It is an insult to those affected, and defies our values as a nation.
But try not to use this occasion to play amateur scientist to attribute a specific catastrophe to climate change, or refer to worse storms eighty years ago to somehow "prove" the opposite. It is an insult to those affected, and defies our values as a nation.
7
Jose looks a little loco out there over the ocean and can't make up its mind. Seems like the new normal these days for everything. What's to become of us?
14
Read in the Miami Herald that sea levels in the Florida area have risen 3 inches since 1994. And up to nine inches in other areas of the world. Good to know that some folks in Florida are paying attention to our new reality.
Hang in there St. Pete. May you not receive a direct hit.
Hang in there St. Pete. May you not receive a direct hit.
24
Yes, this would help greatly!
1
This should be a teaching moment for the young in this country who are seriously interested in science. These disasters, rather than perking up the curiosity of society about the impact of Climate Change, has strengthened society's focus on prayers and denial. This is the type of reaction one would have expected in the Middle Ages when illness encouraged superstition, rather than the study of the body.
This teaching moment says the US no longer values scientists and their efforts, and those seriously interested in science and research, especially atmospheric and planetary science, should prepare to emigrate rather than compromise their values by ending up in disciplines they don't fully embrace. Many Asians and Europeans came to America in pursuit of knowledge - the time has come to reverse the tide.
This teaching moment says the US no longer values scientists and their efforts, and those seriously interested in science and research, especially atmospheric and planetary science, should prepare to emigrate rather than compromise their values by ending up in disciplines they don't fully embrace. Many Asians and Europeans came to America in pursuit of knowledge - the time has come to reverse the tide.
36
The US is no longer a superpower, the election of Trump may have sealed its fate. Look for global leadership from EU and China.
14
There have been a number of comments here and other places on the web about how few hurricanes hit the US east coast or in the gulf of mexico over the last 12 years as if this is some type of indication that anthropogenic climate change is therefore *proven* wrong.
This is just a red herring, non-science rant regurgitated ad nauseum by the denier camp. First glance observation is simple: The eastern US is not the entire globe and 12 years is too short a time period for statistical validity. Also, the pacific ocean thing is really big with some recent high energy storms.
The IPCC /climate scientists NEVER indicated that frequency of land falls in the US is a probable projection resulting from AGW. What climate scientists have stated—and what has occurred—is that storms that form will likely be stronger due to warmer water and air temperatures. And that is just what has happened. see link below.
"But a strong signal is found in proportions of both weaker and stronger hurricanes: the proportion of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has increased at a rate of ~25–30 % per °C of global warming after accounting for analysis and observing system changes. This has been balanced by a similar decrease in Category 1 and 2 hurricane proportions, leading to development of a distinctly bimodal intensity distribution, with the secondary maximum at Category 4 hurricanes. This global signal is reproduced in all ocean basins."
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-013-1713-0
This is just a red herring, non-science rant regurgitated ad nauseum by the denier camp. First glance observation is simple: The eastern US is not the entire globe and 12 years is too short a time period for statistical validity. Also, the pacific ocean thing is really big with some recent high energy storms.
The IPCC /climate scientists NEVER indicated that frequency of land falls in the US is a probable projection resulting from AGW. What climate scientists have stated—and what has occurred—is that storms that form will likely be stronger due to warmer water and air temperatures. And that is just what has happened. see link below.
"But a strong signal is found in proportions of both weaker and stronger hurricanes: the proportion of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has increased at a rate of ~25–30 % per °C of global warming after accounting for analysis and observing system changes. This has been balanced by a similar decrease in Category 1 and 2 hurricane proportions, leading to development of a distinctly bimodal intensity distribution, with the secondary maximum at Category 4 hurricanes. This global signal is reproduced in all ocean basins."
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-013-1713-0
27
Let's be clear about the forecast. The cone of uncertainty--the forecasted area where the center of the storm could go--included the west coast of Florida from the beginning. If anything, the forecasters should only show the narrowing cone as the forecasting window becomes more accurate without showing any point forecasts for the storm center which is what people focus on.
14
Enough about Miami already. Headline indicated that Tampa and west Florida coast to receive a direct hit but there was very little written about that.
Realizing Miami is sometimes considered NYC south, the rest of us would like a thorough update of conditions particularly where we have friends and relatives up the Gulf coast.
Realizing Miami is sometimes considered NYC south, the rest of us would like a thorough update of conditions particularly where we have friends and relatives up the Gulf coast.
7
You know there obsessed with miami its the only city besides nyc, la and dc that seems to matter nowadays.
2
Throughout history people have had to move when nature changes. Why at this point in time do people feel they are above science, geology, climate?
Scientists excel at the hard work of physics, materials science, optics, engineering . . .most spend their life figuring out hard problems, yet we reward Wall Street with lavish salaries and perks. We need to value our scientists.
Why would a child study STEM when she sees so little respect for science from adults?
Scientists excel at the hard work of physics, materials science, optics, engineering . . .most spend their life figuring out hard problems, yet we reward Wall Street with lavish salaries and perks. We need to value our scientists.
Why would a child study STEM when she sees so little respect for science from adults?
119
A young person interested in basic science should plan to emigrate to a country where science is valued. This requires planning and work, but it is worth it.
18
And because scientists don't live in fancy penthouses and wear Rolex watches. Atomic clocks are great but lacks the bling that really matters to people today. Kids become what they see around them, regardless of how shallow. Only after one is old and it's too late have ones eyes adjusted to see past the reflection on the surface.
14
Agreed. A tragedy that the country that delivered a man on the moon 50 years ago has fallen so far.
13
So now it's Miami 2017 and Broadway's lights are doing fine—Miami not so much. And if anywhere is floating out to sea it ain't Manhattan.
Ironic how life turns out, Billy Joel, eh.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_2017_(Seen_the_Lights_Go_Out_on_Broa...
Ironic how life turns out, Billy Joel, eh.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami_2017_(Seen_the_Lights_Go_Out_on_Broa...
6
OMG, I just clicked on the article titled: "Irma Shifting Forecasts: It’s All a Matter of Probability" because my mind read it as "Irma Shifting Forecasts: It’s All a Matter of Profitability" and that seemed most interesting.
10
As cynical and possibly accurate as that observation is, why is that your mind just automatically goes there? And this is not the first time?
Have you ever sought help for that?
Have you ever sought help for that?
3
Rush? Mr. Limbaugh? Is that you? Did you make it to your secret location "for security reasons?"
12
I live in The Gulf...so forgive me, all. But how great for Trump! No one is even mentioning his investigation. Whadda windfall!!! Can we EVER get back to the NEWS???
29
MSNBC's evening shows on Friday evening led with the hurricane but, also, spent time on the investigation. Harvey and Irma are the most urgent news now. But don't worry. The other news isn't going away.
13
Just wonder if "windfall" is an accidental pun? I assume it it.
4
What's the situation with Mar-a-Lago? It's right in the path of the hurricane. Will FEMA have to cover the costs of rebuilding the President's southern "White House" if it is damaged by Irma? Did he open its doors for evacuees wth no where else to go?
35
No, his insurance company will have to satisfy all claims. Just like anybody else.
I'm sure his coverage is more than adequate. His board would insist on it.
I'm sure his coverage is more than adequate. His board would insist on it.
1
Just curious...if you think it may come to ruin why would you want people in it? Sounds like you're either looking for a lose/lose situation or you suffer from TDS. Sad.
7
Look it up. That old man already scabbed up approx 17 million for hurricane damage prior....even though Mara largo sustained no damage. Despicable.
22
Why make some sort of musical accompaniment to the videos? wouldn't stark silence, or howling winds, or crashing trees better at conveying the gravity of the moment?
17
The overpopulation of huge snakes - I think are pythons - in Florida happened after Hurricane Andrew caused a facility that had them caged in to flood over and the snakes got out. It must be an awful problem to deal with.
On another note, I think the major cable channels CNN and MSNBC have gone crazy with the extent of their coverage of hurricanes. The news goes on constantly for days in advance and dominates all coverage. Extremes seem to be the new approach - either Trump's actions all the time or natural disasters all the time. What about the things happening in the major government departments and the loss of protections. For me over coverage cheapens the news and adds to the reason that people can see these outlets as untrustworthy. I say this as a rabid Trump opponent.
On another note, I think the major cable channels CNN and MSNBC have gone crazy with the extent of their coverage of hurricanes. The news goes on constantly for days in advance and dominates all coverage. Extremes seem to be the new approach - either Trump's actions all the time or natural disasters all the time. What about the things happening in the major government departments and the loss of protections. For me over coverage cheapens the news and adds to the reason that people can see these outlets as untrustworthy. I say this as a rabid Trump opponent.
40
Honestly....just turn them off. It's the healthiest and most effective thing you can do. An hour a day at the end of the day does it for me.
13
Agreed. An important story, to be sure, but hour after hour of essentially similar graphics and reporters standing in rain and wind. Viewers get zero information on any other topic whatsoever nationally or internationally for hours on end.
12
And of course, there are disasters that are getting zero national coverage -- the fires burning in Oregon, California, Washington, and much of the west are devastating, but nobody talking about it nationally. Nobody. Because maybe then some of the climate change deniers would actually have to pay attention.
17
When I came down with a terrible cough, sore throat, and fever late Friday I needed some over the counter medicine (cough syrup). All the stores were closed Saturday, pharmacies and drug stores, like Walgreens and CVS. I went to Sarasota Memorial Hospital as I just knew they would sell me a cheap generic cough syrup. Nope. I could not beg borrow or steal. I could wait in the emergency room a couple hours, see a doctor, and pay a few hundred dollars for a simple bottle of cough syrup. Good grief. There is something wrong here and it is not Irma.
30
Sorry to hear you're not feeling well. That is exactly why the news media has been talking about this big storm for a week; so people would stock up on essentials--food, water, & medicines--including cough syrup.
The general rule of thumb is to always be ready to get by without stores for 2 weeks. I really don't know what else you are expecting the authorities to do; the employees of the drug stores need to stay safe, too!
Our pioneering forefathers used to stock up so their homes had everything they could conceivably need for up to 5 months during a long winter. We are all a bit too spoiled by our dependance on 24/7 convenience stores. With that in mind, I'm going to spend the morning updating my quake kit...
Stay safe and feel better soon!
The general rule of thumb is to always be ready to get by without stores for 2 weeks. I really don't know what else you are expecting the authorities to do; the employees of the drug stores need to stay safe, too!
Our pioneering forefathers used to stock up so their homes had everything they could conceivably need for up to 5 months during a long winter. We are all a bit too spoiled by our dependance on 24/7 convenience stores. With that in mind, I'm going to spend the morning updating my quake kit...
Stay safe and feel better soon!
32
With all due respect, Michael, people are losing lives, homes, livelihoods, and access to *life-saving* medical therapy, and you're on here complaining about not getting an over-the-counter cough syrup at your convenience? Stay home, drink some hot tea with honey or something, and count your lucky stars you're safe and mostly well.
22
You completely missed the point. For you it was "do as the government and industry tells you to do or else it's your fault" while he was pointing out the greed infecting society.
1
NHC: Jose, Cat 4, doing a loop before heading westward towards the Bahamas.
7
Surely most Florida construction was designed and built to withstand winds of 130 mph. Relative to the flattened islands, it ought to be in much less danger, the main danger being wind-blown debris. Avoid the fresh air, folks!
9
Codes may be more stringent since Andrew in 1992, but certainly not on a condo construction project I worked on in near Pinellas Point in St. St. Pete as a young man in 1980. I always wondered what would happen to that place in a hurricane. Looks like we may find out.
9
As I think how many tax dollars will be spent to rebuild homes it is time to consider the following: Can we afford to have the wealthy live on our coasts? The fact is that the wealthy will petition their politicians to repair and replace their homes at the public's expense. They will not be refused. This is going to cost us a lot of money and invariably increase the federal debt. The poor however have no political power and will probably get almost no assistance as our expense. Even if they do it will cost next to nothing to rebuild a poor person's hovel or shack. For their and our sake it may be time to ask the wealthy to move to special enclaves where they can do the least damage to our federal debt. Detroit maybe?
54
Why sure, let's become a dictatorship and order people in matters of their lives as we see fit. Or maybe not. As a longtime liberal, I'm impressed and dismayed at the bitter, hateful ideas and mass accusations coming from a political group I've identified with so long. Are we frustrated? Surely. I live in the south and have been frustrated, too. But I can't live and think like an unfair, bitter, self-pitying person for that reason. Or everyone would be mean and full of bile. Life's not what we want, okay? And we change it as best we can. We don't let ourselves become monstrous and excuse ourselves for it. Not if I can help it.
9
As I think how many tax dollars will be needed to rebuild Houston and Florida, I think, "Why are we in Afghanistan again?"
11
"Why sure, let's become a dictatorship and order people in matters of their lives as we see fit." It's not that simple....it sounds like you're also against stop signs, speed limits, and zoning laws. Reality check: the higher the density of people, the more regulation required to maintain order and public safety...very simple.
2
This just in from Sarasota (a friend lives there) -- mid-day Sunday 9/10:
Some rain, though nothing worse than a typical thunderstorm. He's planning to stay in all day and watch TV (though he says there's nothing on besides hurricane coverage).
I hope it stays the same.
Some rain, though nothing worse than a typical thunderstorm. He's planning to stay in all day and watch TV (though he says there's nothing on besides hurricane coverage).
I hope it stays the same.
3
Isn't that what they said on the Titanic? Just a little bump; orchestra is still playing; just go back to bed.
14
The storm-track predictions have been reasonably good. For the past two days, the weather models have shown that Irma was more likely to run up Florida's west side rather than up the Atlantic seaboard. The contrary predictions were from 3-4 days ago, when Irma was 700 miles out on the ocean.
The real problems are that (1) the Florida peninsula is narrow in relation to this storm, (2) most of it is barely above sea level, and (3) we do not have a national disaster-response capability to evacuate millions of people in this situation.
Add in global sea level rise and monster storms like this one, fueled by warm sea surface temperatures, and you have a recipe for catastrophe.
It's too late in this particular storm to do much except hope for the best, for all of the people who are stranded on this very exposed peninsula, and prepare to send in relief as soon as the storm passes.
But for the next one, our federal government should prepare to take a much stronger role, to ensure that people can evacuate longer distances to secure locations, rather than just shift from one exposed, low-lying city to another.
That requires, as a first step, acknowledging the reality of climate change and the likelihood that situations like this will become increasingly common.
The real problems are that (1) the Florida peninsula is narrow in relation to this storm, (2) most of it is barely above sea level, and (3) we do not have a national disaster-response capability to evacuate millions of people in this situation.
Add in global sea level rise and monster storms like this one, fueled by warm sea surface temperatures, and you have a recipe for catastrophe.
It's too late in this particular storm to do much except hope for the best, for all of the people who are stranded on this very exposed peninsula, and prepare to send in relief as soon as the storm passes.
But for the next one, our federal government should prepare to take a much stronger role, to ensure that people can evacuate longer distances to secure locations, rather than just shift from one exposed, low-lying city to another.
That requires, as a first step, acknowledging the reality of climate change and the likelihood that situations like this will become increasingly common.
23
As a society, we willingly embrace the science and technology that enables us to predict the path of hurricanes. At the same time, we struggle to embrace the science that predicts the effects of climate change and the technologies that would help us reduce its impact.
387
One reason for this is that we have many hurricanes each year against which we can clearly test predictions. In the case of "climate change," a vague term, we have no such scientific luxury.
That's because we are collectively too ignorant to see the imminent danger.
Governor Scott has used all the scientific knowledge to learn about the direction and strength of Hurricane Irma. I wonder if he will give the scientists any credit. I hope he will admit climate change and do what's right for Florida in the future.
383
Dealing with climate change is vital. But when a destructive hurricane is bearing down on Florida, threatening hundreds of fatalities, there is good reason not to be calling for more attention to climate change .
And you should know that, unlike many other weather phenomena, hurricanes are fairly rare. According to the Washington Post, the heating of ocean water contributes to hurricane strength. But because there aren't that many hurricanes, there aren't enough samples out there to assess the effect of warming on the number and severity of the hurricanes that hit land.
Not only is your timing bad, but while we know a gret deal about the effects of climate change hurricanes are something of an exception. I know you are well-intended. But this is the time to come to the aid of Floridians. The climate change debate needs to take a back seat when disaster is hitting tomorrow.
And you should know that, unlike many other weather phenomena, hurricanes are fairly rare. According to the Washington Post, the heating of ocean water contributes to hurricane strength. But because there aren't that many hurricanes, there aren't enough samples out there to assess the effect of warming on the number and severity of the hurricanes that hit land.
Not only is your timing bad, but while we know a gret deal about the effects of climate change hurricanes are something of an exception. I know you are well-intended. But this is the time to come to the aid of Floridians. The climate change debate needs to take a back seat when disaster is hitting tomorrow.
6
climate change happens in the halls of Congress. weather change happens outdoors
4
isn't this the BEST time to talk about climate change?
5
Eventually power companies will be able to encourage residents to leave by cutting power to the area when winds reach speeds that can cause the lines to slap together or against trees. This will reduce also reduce the damage to their capacitors, transformers and other equipment and possibly save lives by making inert any power lines that are knocked down.
9
This commenter apparently missed another NYT article about a week ago:
"Tax dollars shouldn't rebuild a house twice on the same spot."
Per that article, the US government has been issuing flood insurance policies for about 50 years (5 million policies are presently in effect) after private insurers got out of the flood-insurance business in 1968. As many other news sources have reported, those policy holders often have collected on those policies to rebuild on the same spot. Usually they get another US-government guaranteed flood insurance policy to cover the new place, and then, when it floods....
Most of these policy holders are insuring properties located on the coast. In other words, most of these policy holders are not poor people.
"Tax dollars shouldn't rebuild a house twice on the same spot."
Per that article, the US government has been issuing flood insurance policies for about 50 years (5 million policies are presently in effect) after private insurers got out of the flood-insurance business in 1968. As many other news sources have reported, those policy holders often have collected on those policies to rebuild on the same spot. Usually they get another US-government guaranteed flood insurance policy to cover the new place, and then, when it floods....
Most of these policy holders are insuring properties located on the coast. In other words, most of these policy holders are not poor people.
39
Welcome to Cape Cod and the Islands. People are building on every square inch of beach front today. Will be gone in a couple of decades or less. Yet, they will rebuild, again, in the same spot.
11
Almost every time that we get a hard rain.
Historically, in 1938 the homes on the coastlines were wiped out or severely damaged. We got it coming again someday, that's for sure.
Historically, in 1938 the homes on the coastlines were wiped out or severely damaged. We got it coming again someday, that's for sure.
The last major storm to hit Tampa Bay was in 1927. These are not repetitive loss properties. New homes on the coast must be elevated.
1
Thanks to all the people who make it possible for us to forecast and follow the weather!
Imagine what it was like 200 years ago when people would get up and go about their routine day (set out on an ocean voyage across the Atlantic, take their boat out on a fishing trip, go down to the beach to dig for clams, sit down for breakfast at their house near the beach, etc.) with absolutely no idea that a hurricane was approaching and would arrive with full force in a few hours.
Think of all the ships that sailed out and never returned. Think of all the people waiting for relatives who never came back. Think of all the homes sustaining severe damage because the owners only began to prepare for the storm when the first winds were rising. Think of all those who drowned at home or on the streets of their towns because the storm surge took them by complete surprise.
We are so fortunate that the people who lived before us built systems to give us a warning. Our ancestors would consider weather science to be a miracle. We shouldn't take it for granted!
Imagine what it was like 200 years ago when people would get up and go about their routine day (set out on an ocean voyage across the Atlantic, take their boat out on a fishing trip, go down to the beach to dig for clams, sit down for breakfast at their house near the beach, etc.) with absolutely no idea that a hurricane was approaching and would arrive with full force in a few hours.
Think of all the ships that sailed out and never returned. Think of all the people waiting for relatives who never came back. Think of all the homes sustaining severe damage because the owners only began to prepare for the storm when the first winds were rising. Think of all those who drowned at home or on the streets of their towns because the storm surge took them by complete surprise.
We are so fortunate that the people who lived before us built systems to give us a warning. Our ancestors would consider weather science to be a miracle. We shouldn't take it for granted!
108
Beautifully put, and so so true! And there's so much more to imagine and think about that could be added...
6
True, but our ancestors did know - far better than we - how to read the weather in terms of wind direction, the turning up of leaves on trees, cloud formations, and the behavior of animals. Birds and animals disappear before a large storm because they can sense it coming. We, on the other hand, probably would not survive without our weather forecasts on one form of media or another.
1
If by ancestors, you are referring to our European Christian ancestors, I think you are correct in saying they would view weather science to be a miracle. However, if you look back to Native American tribes, many predicted and survived weather related disasters using the type knowledge that was belittled by European explorers, information gleaned from observing the skies, animals, and plants. If you read about Hawaiian navigators Nainoa Thompson or Mau Piailug, you will be amazed at how they are able to predict the weather in advance by the color of the sky or the appearance of the moon. Sadly, much of this knowledge was wiped out by those ancestors obliterated these "primitive" civilizations. Just remember, when the Europeans were stuck in the dark ages thinking Europe was the center of the universe, the Polynesians were sailing across the Pacific with tremendous accuracy, and the Mayans already knew the orbits of 5 planets around the sun.
1
Potus all over it. Help is coming. Stay tuned Florida.
5
how is he "all over it"??
2
The title of a Times news analysis this morning: "Apocalyptic Fears? You Could Be Forgiven."
Blaming natural disasters on deities may give comfort to the devout, who believe them retribution for petty personal transgressions. They hope prayer or a generous tithe might prevent the next one. Or even, apocalypse.
For disasters born of climate change, our own transgressions are indeed to blame. And because no amount of prayer will put back into the ground the carbon their monster truck has put into the air. I refuse to forgive anyone who blames climate change on a man in the sky.
Own it - to blame for Atlantic superstorms and uncontrollable wildfilres are you and I.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JP-cRqCQRc8
Blaming natural disasters on deities may give comfort to the devout, who believe them retribution for petty personal transgressions. They hope prayer or a generous tithe might prevent the next one. Or even, apocalypse.
For disasters born of climate change, our own transgressions are indeed to blame. And because no amount of prayer will put back into the ground the carbon their monster truck has put into the air. I refuse to forgive anyone who blames climate change on a man in the sky.
Own it - to blame for Atlantic superstorms and uncontrollable wildfilres are you and I.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JP-cRqCQRc8
31
Maybe we should repent of our carbon emitting ways. There is a "Hail Mary" for carbon emissions; it's called planting a tree. There's also something called a bus. Public transportation, car pooling and bike lanes are far more fuel efficient than everyone driving an SUV alone. It's not a silver bullet, but it would be a start.
5
From the article:
"The new track could expose St. Petersburg — rather than Miami or Tampa — to a direct hit."
Ah, THERE's the solution! Just evacuate from St. Petersburg to Miami or Tampa. (Suggestion: Pick Tampa; Miami is nearly 4 hours from St. Petersburg, without traffic, whereas Tampa actually touches St. Petersburg.)
"The new track could expose St. Petersburg — rather than Miami or Tampa — to a direct hit."
Ah, THERE's the solution! Just evacuate from St. Petersburg to Miami or Tampa. (Suggestion: Pick Tampa; Miami is nearly 4 hours from St. Petersburg, without traffic, whereas Tampa actually touches St. Petersburg.)
3
My daughter and her husband live on in Tampa St. Pete's Beach. My daughter has wisely moved away from the storm and is staying with a friend. Her husband refuses to leave their house. Terrible.
12
A few points I would hope even the furthest right would accept now:
1. Science matters, and we should pay attention to people who understand science.
2. Not all regulation is evil. There is a place for responsible zoning and construction regulation.
3. There are some things government does better than private enterprise. We do need a government that is not so small it could be drown in a bathtub.
4. There are limits to individualism. We are all in this together.
Some of us believe in more government than others, but we need a minimum of common agreement.
1. Science matters, and we should pay attention to people who understand science.
2. Not all regulation is evil. There is a place for responsible zoning and construction regulation.
3. There are some things government does better than private enterprise. We do need a government that is not so small it could be drown in a bathtub.
4. There are limits to individualism. We are all in this together.
Some of us believe in more government than others, but we need a minimum of common agreement.
241
It would also help if we could agree on the definition of common words. There's a monstrosity out there called "Conservapedia" that changes the meaning of words to distort or sidetrack rational arguments.
I once considered myself a strong conservative and was a Republican. I am no longer a Republican, but the words in arguments I use have the same meaning that they did 48 years ago.
http://www.conservapedia.com/Main_Page
Also see: http://www.conservapedia.com/Conservative_Dictionary_Project
I once considered myself a strong conservative and was a Republican. I am no longer a Republican, but the words in arguments I use have the same meaning that they did 48 years ago.
http://www.conservapedia.com/Main_Page
Also see: http://www.conservapedia.com/Conservative_Dictionary_Project
2
We may not be able to forecast where the hurricane will go tomorrow, but we do know that the Earth will be 2 degrees warmer in 2100 and it will cost mankind billions of dollars. NYC will be under water and the Midwest will be a desert. Science has proven this and it is an irrefutable fact. We just need to translate that precision to hurricane prediction.
21
They've been accurately forecasting where it's going to go for many days now, the only thing that's changing is the precise path it'll take up Florida. Knowing that it would turn from Cuba and head up Florida days in advance is pretty amazing to me.
14
I'm inclined to agree, more precision is essential considering what is at stake today vs Galveston in 1900. Millions are being spent on forecasting but it's being done as competitive business rather than a serious social and humanitarian need, that's why there so many "models." Why not invest in and improve that which has been most accurate thus far. Today I've heard "Irma is so unpredictable." Just code for we're not there yet on forecasting.
5
Surprised that officials are scrambling to open the west coast shelters. Would think they'd be already to go, just in case the Hurricane headed that way.
Sounds like negligent planning - or maybe Florida officials are still debating whether the Hurricane is fake news.
Sounds like negligent planning - or maybe Florida officials are still debating whether the Hurricane is fake news.
20
They've been open, and filled up long since, too. They're scrounging for more. People have been doing their best, just as you would if you were there.
6
Nothing better than kibitzing. No responsibility and lots of criticism . Ah well, perhaps by age fifteen you'll come to understand and appreciate the works of those giving their best efforts to help when called upon in times of danger...
3
NO, most shelters are schools. They closed schools Friday, opened that afternoon set up for shelter. Because of the turn to the west a lot of counties scrambled to open more due to most shelters reaching their capacity.
4
This should a learning experience. So should the many earlier storms but they weren't. Will this one?
13
Nope. Americans are generally incapable of learning.
17
Two of the four top States for Gross Domestic Product will have hurricanes impacting their productivity. This will have a real time effect on every consumer and taxpayer in this country.
20
Anacondas? Boa constrictors? Has anyone mentioned the thousands of these huge, full grown snakes that have grown not only in the Okefenokee Swamp but all throughout the lower half of Florida. They have eaten most of the animals and are apparently preying on areas populated by humans. If I lived there I know I would be concerned about it.
20
I do live here. They need to BAN the import and she of exotic pets. People who buy them are cretins and the poor animals are traumatized and displaced so some low life's can eek out a buck at their costs.
8
"Storm is coming!! Storm is coming!!" for a week now! 24/7 pick a channel. As usual, the East Coast is the center of the universe. If you can't drive to the 'story' from the big studios, it doesn't exist. But, East Coast doesn't really include things 'not America'. The record breaking hurricane was going to scour all the islands but 'oh, well' back to "Storm is coming!!" (Is it any wonder why Trump 'cliff hangers' Tweets and proclamations work?) And don't worry about the West's non-stop wildfires - did you know one of the old Glacier Park lodges burned down? Or the shocking fire in the Columbia River Gorge? By the time the storm arrives, honestly I can't muster much interest, even to the shame of my 'humanity'. Turned of TV days ago, once again understanding why some people chose to 'ride it out'. (I DO, however, appreciate the discussion of climate change/global warming. Science!)
22
I've been deeply upset and saddened about the wildfires. They are absolutely devastating! This from someone that evacuated a day ago due to Irma.
6
Becca, thank you for saying that - i DO hope you will be ok.
2
Hadn't notice this until now, but one wonders whether the NYT writer understands Florida geography:
"The new track could expose St. Petersburg — rather than Miami or Tampa — to a direct hit."
This suggests Tampa is close to Miami, which would greatly surprise Floridians to learn (Tampa is on the west coast, right next to St. Petersburg).
I'm sure this doesn't matter to people in Florida, especially those living in Tampa, but my goodness!
"The new track could expose St. Petersburg — rather than Miami or Tampa — to a direct hit."
This suggests Tampa is close to Miami, which would greatly surprise Floridians to learn (Tampa is on the west coast, right next to St. Petersburg).
I'm sure this doesn't matter to people in Florida, especially those living in Tampa, but my goodness!
15
All this is happening in the Real World.
Meanwhile, the Times Editorial rightly flags the Anti-Science Flamethrowers of the Trump "Blight House."
Meanwhile, the Times Editorial rightly flags the Anti-Science Flamethrowers of the Trump "Blight House."
13
Where are the pictures of the USVI's??? St Thomas and St John specifically..? (St Croix avoided a major hit)
US property, and citizens...but little information on their status...?!?!
US property, and citizens...but little information on their status...?!?!
18
I have friends in St Thomas and Puerto Rico. It's a disaster but overall they are ok and just cleaning up and assessing the damage. Still some electricity down, at least in PR.
6
Hear hear! Still waiting.
There's video coverage of USVI on NYTimes. Been there for days . . .
5
I think we should be compassionate in our efforts to help hurricane victims, in return, I would like restrictions on where and what kind of buildings can be erected. Tax dollars shouldn't rebuild a house twice on the same spot.
96
Trump would never allow that.
Only a scoundrel would do that.
Oh, never mind.
Only a scoundrel would do that.
Oh, never mind.
4
A) And the national flood insurance program needs to be reimagined in a way that works in a time of climate change, and be mandatory (Houston)
B) Private insurers need to be prohibited from trying to split hairs on whether hurricane damage is from wind or flood and just pay the claim
C) A condition of receiving federally-paid flood aid should be that you cannot receive aid a second time in the same location.
D) No federal aid for high-rise luxury hotels on beaches that are damaged by storms. Period.
B) Private insurers need to be prohibited from trying to split hairs on whether hurricane damage is from wind or flood and just pay the claim
C) A condition of receiving federally-paid flood aid should be that you cannot receive aid a second time in the same location.
D) No federal aid for high-rise luxury hotels on beaches that are damaged by storms. Period.
14
What tax dollars? The government reinsurance of the private insurance industry? I doubt that the government will lose much of anything, and Florida has been subsidizing the other states for decades.
I think I understand a bit the meteorological cones of uncertainty, the expanding circles of more time passing and the expanding outer edges of the bet being hedged in predicting the path of the eye.
What I don't get is why many of those maps plotted a line down the middle, when in fact that is a very uncertain line, the nature of the map.
Yours truly, a layman.
What I don't get is why many of those maps plotted a line down the middle, when in fact that is a very uncertain line, the nature of the map.
Yours truly, a layman.
5
The line down the middle represents the most-probable storm track, just as in the last election the likeliest outcome was Clnton winning by a couple percent.
The farther you go from that center line, the less probable; once you get to the edges of the "cone," you're in unlikely territory.
But unlikely doesn't mean "impossible."
The farther you go from that center line, the less probable; once you get to the edges of the "cone," you're in unlikely territory.
But unlikely doesn't mean "impossible."
7
I don't mean to belittle anything here. However, wasn't the storm downgraded to a category 4 rather than "upgraded" as the reporting suggests? The severity decreased as Irma crossed over the Caribbean. Not the other way around.
In any event, you can't say people haven't been warned. The uncertainty is stressful but at least you saw this one coming. There's no sucker punch here. Florida is about to get decked and everyone knows it. What you do with your time is now your decision. Don't complain when the helicopter rescue turns out to be surprisingly expensive.
In any event, you can't say people haven't been warned. The uncertainty is stressful but at least you saw this one coming. There's no sucker punch here. Florida is about to get decked and everyone knows it. What you do with your time is now your decision. Don't complain when the helicopter rescue turns out to be surprisingly expensive.
7
Irma had dropped from a Category 5 to a Category 3 after it moved along Cuba. Then it strengthened back up to a Category 4 as it headed toward the Florida Keys.
5
In all fairness:
First, you're not even there, so how would you know what to do?
Second, the hurricane has veered course. So the west coast, vs. the east coast, is in the center path now. This news did not come out until Friday afternoon. So if you were in Tampa, would you stay put, or would you get stuck in traffic on a highway for days?
What would YOU do in this situation?
First, you're not even there, so how would you know what to do?
Second, the hurricane has veered course. So the west coast, vs. the east coast, is in the center path now. This news did not come out until Friday afternoon. So if you were in Tampa, would you stay put, or would you get stuck in traffic on a highway for days?
What would YOU do in this situation?
9
Irma had downgraded to a 3 and revved back up to a 4 to hit the Keys.
6
Is this commenter correct?
"If climate change caused Irma and Harvey, why is it that we had a record 12 years that a major hurricane didn't made landfall in the United States?"
Has hurricane activity been lower than usual during the last 12 years, about the same as usual, or higher than usual? (By the way, Harvey wasn't of the same ilk -- it was only a Category 3 storm ("Hurricane" Sandy wasn't even a 1, according to another commenter.).
I don't doubt that the Harvey-related devastation could have been reduced in Houston, but Category 3 storms have been happening for thousands of years. OTHER man-made shortcomings better explain the damage caused by Harvey -- such as paving over absorptive ground with parking lots.
"If climate change caused Irma and Harvey, why is it that we had a record 12 years that a major hurricane didn't made landfall in the United States?"
Has hurricane activity been lower than usual during the last 12 years, about the same as usual, or higher than usual? (By the way, Harvey wasn't of the same ilk -- it was only a Category 3 storm ("Hurricane" Sandy wasn't even a 1, according to another commenter.).
I don't doubt that the Harvey-related devastation could have been reduced in Houston, but Category 3 storms have been happening for thousands of years. OTHER man-made shortcomings better explain the damage caused by Harvey -- such as paving over absorptive ground with parking lots.
3
The general prediction seems to be for fewer, wetter, stronger and bigger hurricanes.
Harvey spun up to Cat 4 unusually quickly, and dumped immense amounts of water. Irma sustained winds over 180 MPH longer than any recorded storm anywhere. And is the biggest hurricane ever seen in the Atlantic.
What about that makes NOAA and the NHC look foolish, I couldn't say. And while we can't be sure that the way we're warming the planet caused all this, Harvey and Irma are consistent with what the science is saying so far.
Harvey spun up to Cat 4 unusually quickly, and dumped immense amounts of water. Irma sustained winds over 180 MPH longer than any recorded storm anywhere. And is the biggest hurricane ever seen in the Atlantic.
What about that makes NOAA and the NHC look foolish, I couldn't say. And while we can't be sure that the way we're warming the planet caused all this, Harvey and Irma are consistent with what the science is saying so far.
10
I am not sure this statistic is actually correct. I would like to see the statistics to support that claim, because it certainly does seem we have a new 'storm of the century' about every year lately. Still, are we so bone-headed that we cannot remember two weeks ago to Harvey, much less to Sandy and Katrina? I live in a suburban area currently under a Level 1 evacuation order due to a massive wildfire. The same factors of climate change are involved. Let's add up all the costs of climate change every year and THEN discuss the trend.
9
I assume you are referring to the ubiquitous "Ralphie" as the original commentor.
His statement of 12 years since the landfall of a hurricane rank as "Major" is correct.
His application of statistics to derive some sort of significance from that factoid is completely erroneous. He, and others, have been on and on with that talking point for days. No idea where they got it. Some denier site somewhere I'm guessing.
Mostly this point is a form of the cherry picking logical fallacy. In this case by focusing on hurricane category which really only relates to wind speed, not total energy, size, rain-fall, etc. The argument also gets how unlikely this 12 year period is completely wrong by using simple decadal averages for small population events.
Of course, our development practices *have* made things worse as well. That does not mean storms aren't getting bigger and more energetic as well. Both, of course, are results of our growth oriented consumptive society that mistakes "growth" for "progress".
It would be best if the public stopped looking for simplistic single causes and relationships in a system that is inherently complex. It is that very complexity that *should* cause us to err on the side of caution.
His statement of 12 years since the landfall of a hurricane rank as "Major" is correct.
His application of statistics to derive some sort of significance from that factoid is completely erroneous. He, and others, have been on and on with that talking point for days. No idea where they got it. Some denier site somewhere I'm guessing.
Mostly this point is a form of the cherry picking logical fallacy. In this case by focusing on hurricane category which really only relates to wind speed, not total energy, size, rain-fall, etc. The argument also gets how unlikely this 12 year period is completely wrong by using simple decadal averages for small population events.
Of course, our development practices *have* made things worse as well. That does not mean storms aren't getting bigger and more energetic as well. Both, of course, are results of our growth oriented consumptive society that mistakes "growth" for "progress".
It would be best if the public stopped looking for simplistic single causes and relationships in a system that is inherently complex. It is that very complexity that *should* cause us to err on the side of caution.
10
"the climate is changing, and one of the reasons why the climate is changing is the climate has always been changing"
"There’s never been a time when the climate has not changed."
”higher sea levels or whatever may be happening"
-Marco Rubio-2016 Debate
Senator "Convoluted" Rubio's response to a question by the moderator about climate change and the human impact on it.
And to think the Floridians voted for Trump and re-elected Rubio. I will help the evacuees where I can, but they really ought to rethink their voting habits.
"There’s never been a time when the climate has not changed."
”higher sea levels or whatever may be happening"
-Marco Rubio-2016 Debate
Senator "Convoluted" Rubio's response to a question by the moderator about climate change and the human impact on it.
And to think the Floridians voted for Trump and re-elected Rubio. I will help the evacuees where I can, but they really ought to rethink their voting habits.
42
Lots of Floridians did NOT vote for Trump and for Rubio. In addition there is gerrymandering and a host of measures to keep folks from known Democratic districts (particularly poorer folks) from voting.
There is no way you can tell if a refugee from the storm voted for Trump or not. So stop thinking like an Alt-Right adherent who imagine whole swaths of people into one undifferentiated mass.
There is no way you can tell if a refugee from the storm voted for Trump or not. So stop thinking like an Alt-Right adherent who imagine whole swaths of people into one undifferentiated mass.
8
Katie,
I'm well aware of the situation in Florida. Please note i said. I will help "all" evacuees where I can. Just as I did in Houston with a donation.
Have you donated yet?
I'm well aware of the situation in Florida. Please note i said. I will help "all" evacuees where I can. Just as I did in Houston with a donation.
Have you donated yet?
4
Sounds like Miami and Palm Beach may supply tourist industry unscathed this winter. Curious if condo sales increase there.
1
Why should I worry when there are 490 Million pounds of cherries ? Climate change is a mixed bag of good news and bad news. It's easy to concentrate on the bad news on a day like this.
I like cherries, so this climate change thingy is good news for a guy like me.
http://www.capitalpress.com/Orchards/20170712/pnw-cherry-crop-will-likel...
Capital Press; July 12, 2017 8:20AM
YAKIMA, Wash. — The Pacific Northwest fresh cherry crop is half harvested and now estimated as the largest in history.
In May, it was forecast at 22.7 million, 20-pound boxes but consensus was it could easily be larger. In late June, Northwest Cherry Growers, the industry promotional arm in Yakima, updated the estimate to 24.5 million boxes. If reached, it will surpass the record crop of 23.4 million in 2014.
I like cherries, so this climate change thingy is good news for a guy like me.
http://www.capitalpress.com/Orchards/20170712/pnw-cherry-crop-will-likel...
Capital Press; July 12, 2017 8:20AM
YAKIMA, Wash. — The Pacific Northwest fresh cherry crop is half harvested and now estimated as the largest in history.
In May, it was forecast at 22.7 million, 20-pound boxes but consensus was it could easily be larger. In late June, Northwest Cherry Growers, the industry promotional arm in Yakima, updated the estimate to 24.5 million boxes. If reached, it will surpass the record crop of 23.4 million in 2014.
3
The proverbial cherry on top of the Sunday hurricane.
4
So, island nations stand to be obliterated by rising waters, but a glut of cherries makes up for that? Some priorities you have there.
11
Oh good! More cherries! I'll put that on my "How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Global Warming" Facebook page.
13
I agree -- the weather predictors didn't screw up:
"It is not quite fair to have 'Contrary to predictions' on the home page."
West-coast Floridians knew at least two days ago that Irma's path had shifted from the east coast to the west coast of Florida, and many of them also knew that you can never certainly predict the path of a hurricane. According to a friend who lives in Sarasota (west coast of Florida), residents received ample warning. Their failure to leave (including my friend) was not due to it being "too late." Undoubtedly there are some exceptions, but he says most locals have simply CHOSEN not to leave. He tells me the warnings they're getting aren't quite as dire as what we read here -- serious warnings, to be sure, but nowhere near as dire. (For example, he tells me there is no "mandatory evacuation" order in place -- if there were, he says, they could be fined (or worse) for not leaving.)
"It is not quite fair to have 'Contrary to predictions' on the home page."
West-coast Floridians knew at least two days ago that Irma's path had shifted from the east coast to the west coast of Florida, and many of them also knew that you can never certainly predict the path of a hurricane. According to a friend who lives in Sarasota (west coast of Florida), residents received ample warning. Their failure to leave (including my friend) was not due to it being "too late." Undoubtedly there are some exceptions, but he says most locals have simply CHOSEN not to leave. He tells me the warnings they're getting aren't quite as dire as what we read here -- serious warnings, to be sure, but nowhere near as dire. (For example, he tells me there is no "mandatory evacuation" order in place -- if there were, he says, they could be fined (or worse) for not leaving.)
90
I know a couple who moved to Venice Florida, that says they can't evacuate because the roads are too clogged. They have chosen to shelter in place and I'm praying they come through this unharmed. If Rick Scott and local authorities want people to evacuate, they need to open southbound lanes to traffic headed north and provide buses and trains at low or no cost and open shelters that take cats and dogs. (They also have 2 elderly cats and said on Facebook that local shelters weren't taking animals.)
5
Sorry dude, I live about 30 miles south of Sarasota. The local authorities say stay put and hunker down. But I guess you know more than the experts, right?
5
Letitia--they couldn't open the southbound lanes bc they needed to be able to get gasoline and ambulances down those lanes right up to the last minute.
3
The following is a comment I left on the Weather Channel website in 2012. I never received a response nor was it published by the Weather Channel website as were the comments of other viewers:
I enjoy watching your programming – it is varied, exciting, educational and professional. I particularly enjoy weather on the eights and all of the credence and employment given to meteorologists. What I find very surprising and particularly perturbing is that I do not see any mention of global warming on any of your weather reporting or programming.
You are all scientists. Global warming is not an issue of political agenda it is a provable, objective, scientific fact. The United States is currently experiencing the most unusual weather patterns ever seen in over a half century and yet no mention of attribution on the weather channel. I find this disingenuous.
Imagine the public service the Weather Channel would provide if it asked its viewers to do one thing to reduce pollution and/or save energy, or, more simply, explain the effect pollution has on the planet’s weather. The latter is well within your purview.
Again, you are all scientists and you have a responsibility. As these unstable, destructive weather patterns continue, and the Weather Channel and the scientists of the Weather Channel continue to keep their collective heads in the sand, your programming will become parody.
I enjoy watching your programming – it is varied, exciting, educational and professional. I particularly enjoy weather on the eights and all of the credence and employment given to meteorologists. What I find very surprising and particularly perturbing is that I do not see any mention of global warming on any of your weather reporting or programming.
You are all scientists. Global warming is not an issue of political agenda it is a provable, objective, scientific fact. The United States is currently experiencing the most unusual weather patterns ever seen in over a half century and yet no mention of attribution on the weather channel. I find this disingenuous.
Imagine the public service the Weather Channel would provide if it asked its viewers to do one thing to reduce pollution and/or save energy, or, more simply, explain the effect pollution has on the planet’s weather. The latter is well within your purview.
Again, you are all scientists and you have a responsibility. As these unstable, destructive weather patterns continue, and the Weather Channel and the scientists of the Weather Channel continue to keep their collective heads in the sand, your programming will become parody.
44
Just to enlighten you, I don't think that climate change is in the Weather Channel's job description...they do a superb job of delivering the weather!
10
You said it all. I'm going to copy this and attribute it to you. Maybe a few more comments and emails would help a bit.
5
after all, what does climate have to do with weather?
2
It used to be that 130 mph winds were the upper range of category 3 hurricanes. Now 130 is the lowest wind speed for a Category 4 hurricane. So Irma is borderline category 3/category 4. That suggests things might not be quite so bad as they seem. Omitting mitigating facts may help readers take Irma more seriously. But the news is supposed to convey the situation as accurately as possible.. I think it falls down on the job by not explaining that Irma's winds are borderline category 3/category 4.
6
the point would be that classifying as a Cat 3 storm doesn't make you safer.
6
For whatever reason, the wind speeds of the storms have been vastly overestimated by the authorities during the last few years. What used to be Category 1 is now a Category 3, and a Cat 3 is now called a Cat 5 monster storm. Irma was certainly a destructive storm when it passed over the British Virgin Isles, but not really a major storm at this point, after scraping the coast of Cuba for 24 hours. Unless you are located directly in front of the eyewall the winds are not even measuring at hurricane force. For example, look at the anemometer readings from Vaca Key, only 25 miles from the center of landfall on Cudjoe key this morning; the maximum recorded sustained winds were 54 knots, and this is supposed to be in the NE quadrant of the storm where hurricane force winds extend out to 70 miles.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=vcaf1
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=vcaf1
2
@Clinton Forecasting intensity has always been a problem and unfortunately not an exact science. Hurricane track forecasting has actually gotten better and continues to get better with each passing day.
2
This may seem whacky, but consider for a moment the possibility of blowing a category 4 or 5 storm apart whilst it is still well out over the ocean using the mother of all bombs to do so in much the same way that oil fires are sometimes extinguished by the use of explosives. The cost would be ten million dollars compared to the billions in damage. Could it be done? I don't know but there may well be experts who do.
4
To see the problem with proposals like this, check the width of the hurricane. It's about 400 miles. Even when it was out to sea it was about 100 miles across. The MOAB's blast radius would be a drop in the bucket.
4
Great question.
I don't know whether it could be done or not, but the amount of energy involved in a hurricane is unbelievable. Hurricanes are powered by the warm air over the ocean (actually, the *contrast* between that warm air and the cold air of the upper atmosphere). So if you disrupt a hurricane a little, it's going to power itself right back up again. Now let's see about the total energy involved- according to http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D7.html , an average hurricane dissipates 52 exajoules/ day - that's like 100,000,000,000,000 watts, or 200,000 times as much power as New York City consumes. Now, according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon_yield, the the most powerful US nuclear weapon ever made dissipates 25 megatons, or 100 petajoules of energy.
So if I didn't make an arithmetic error, over the course of a day, an average hurricane dissipates as much energy as 500 of the largest nuclear weapons ever produced.
So could you "blow apart" a hurricane with one nuclear bomb? Seems unlikely. At any rate, I don't want to be anywhere nearby when you try :-)
I don't know whether it could be done or not, but the amount of energy involved in a hurricane is unbelievable. Hurricanes are powered by the warm air over the ocean (actually, the *contrast* between that warm air and the cold air of the upper atmosphere). So if you disrupt a hurricane a little, it's going to power itself right back up again. Now let's see about the total energy involved- according to http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D7.html , an average hurricane dissipates 52 exajoules/ day - that's like 100,000,000,000,000 watts, or 200,000 times as much power as New York City consumes. Now, according to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapon_yield, the the most powerful US nuclear weapon ever made dissipates 25 megatons, or 100 petajoules of energy.
So if I didn't make an arithmetic error, over the course of a day, an average hurricane dissipates as much energy as 500 of the largest nuclear weapons ever produced.
So could you "blow apart" a hurricane with one nuclear bomb? Seems unlikely. At any rate, I don't want to be anywhere nearby when you try :-)
6
I like the way you think Nicholas.... but consider the following.... Irma possesses approximately 125 terajoules of energy. The MOAB possesses 0.046 terajoules of energy. Dropping a MOAB on this problem to make it go away is like giving butterfly kisses to an angry baboon as it attacks you.... a drop in the energy balance bucket.
9
I'm a little perplexed by the "St. Petersburg, not Tampa" bit. They are separated by a 3-mile bridge over Tampa Bay. They will sink together. At this point the question is simply "how deep?"
16
I agree! There is no distinction. It's like imaging Manhatten will be struck but the other boroughs.
6
The story says, "In Lee County, three of 14 shelters remained open, including one at an elementary school in Lehigh Acres, well east and inland of Ft. Myers. But the large shelter at Germain Arena in Estero, which opened less than 24 hours before, was full." Does this mean that 11 shelters inf Lee County have been closed, perhaps because they are unsafe or because they are not needed? Or are 11 of the 14 shelters too full to accept any more evacuees?
3
They're full up. Have loved ones in Ft. Myers who've checked it all out, they've gone up the coast and heading inland as best they can. My stepdaughter, a nurse, has stayed.
12
“A Spanish-language news station, providing a view of the Keys on Sunday, showed a newscaster and homes nearly underwater.”
Please let your readers know if the underwater newscaster survives. We look forward to an update and hope for the best.
Please let your readers know if the underwater newscaster survives. We look forward to an update and hope for the best.
23
We have much to be grateful for in the 21st century -- updates in real time across a number of platforms, so we can tell if family or friends who haven't checked in are affected by various other factors relating to the storm -- in this case in Georgia.
Someone mentioned down thread that this isn't climate change. Climate change occurs always, but human-caused climate change has been in the works for a few decades now. It most certainly is the result of how we homo sapiens -- we, the wise ones -- have altered numerous factors, which, in turn, have altered other factors in our climate -- and so on and so on -- leading to a geometrical progression of changes that are difficult to predict and control, and which may seem to run on and on. Not unlike my previous sentence. I've been busy trying to locate someone.
Someone mentioned down thread that this isn't climate change. Climate change occurs always, but human-caused climate change has been in the works for a few decades now. It most certainly is the result of how we homo sapiens -- we, the wise ones -- have altered numerous factors, which, in turn, have altered other factors in our climate -- and so on and so on -- leading to a geometrical progression of changes that are difficult to predict and control, and which may seem to run on and on. Not unlike my previous sentence. I've been busy trying to locate someone.
73
And even before that--our heavy carbon emission history beginning 300 years ago--that e industrial revolution.
4
Why contrary to predictions? Another misguiding headline in the NYT. Since Friday the European52 path maps have been showing that the bulk of the predictions were moving to the west coast. Since Saturday morning it was clear that the eye would not be moving through Miami. The 52presidioctions map is one of the path forecast maps published in the NYT. I've been following it several times a day for four days. Hope too many people did not evacuate to Tampa fleeing Irma in Miami.
8
@ tdb - perhaps the problem is partly that the headline writer is not the author. A few of us have pointed out this important error. Where I pointed the error out a replier immediately asked for the source. A quick google produced many sources.
The Times has a great drone video of empty Miami Beach. I wonder what effects it will experience given the actual path of the eye.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
The Times has a great drone video of empty Miami Beach. I wonder what effects it will experience given the actual path of the eye.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
1
Please don't forget our friends in the US Virgin Islands!
From the images I've seen and a few short accounts read, it looks to be equally devastating to the community on St. John, with little mention of their plight, nor the resources to respond adequately. St. John is only serviced by ferries from St. Thomas and lacks an airport, so attention is crucial in getting help.
From the images I've seen and a few short accounts read, it looks to be equally devastating to the community on St. John, with little mention of their plight, nor the resources to respond adequately. St. John is only serviced by ferries from St. Thomas and lacks an airport, so attention is crucial in getting help.
26
Thank you, Brunella! Yet another NYT Irma article with little-to-no mention of our very own USVI. Thousands of US residents live on St. John and St. Thomas -- US territories -- and yet the national coverage has been abysmal. Our citizens there are in DIRE need of support, and have been for days.
13
Ocean waters are warmer than 100 years ago, but not THAT much warmer:
"... waters in the Gulf and Southern Atlantic are as much as 7 degrees hotter than normal...due to global warming."
As Casey Stengel, the crusty old former Yankees manager, used to say: "You can look it up." I did. South Atlantic temperatures have risen about 1 degree (Fahrenheit) in the last century (ignoring the reported recent cooling trend, which wasn't reflected in the measurements). One degree is a rise, to be sure, but it's not 7 degrees.
Is it useful to overstate? If so, is overstatement appropriate simply because it's useful?
"... waters in the Gulf and Southern Atlantic are as much as 7 degrees hotter than normal...due to global warming."
As Casey Stengel, the crusty old former Yankees manager, used to say: "You can look it up." I did. South Atlantic temperatures have risen about 1 degree (Fahrenheit) in the last century (ignoring the reported recent cooling trend, which wasn't reflected in the measurements). One degree is a rise, to be sure, but it's not 7 degrees.
Is it useful to overstate? If so, is overstatement appropriate simply because it's useful?
5
One degree is an average--seven degrees is current temps. Climate vs. weather.
13
The American models are known to be systematically less accurate than the one Americans call the "European" model -- more properly, the ECMWF model, from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. This is why American television forecasters have been careful to point out the ECMWF tracks, for quite some time.
An ArsTechnica piece by Eric Berger, dated Sep 8, is a good starting point for anyone who wishes to learn more about this, since it has good links to model-intercomparison studies as well as some notes on an upcoming change to the American models that experts worry will degrade predictive power even more.
Although it may be useful to note that the early ECMF predictions (and also those of the Canadian model, called CMC) suggested an Irma trajectory further to the west than other models, no modelling group, and no qualified media forecaster, failed to state repeatedly that the exact pathway is not something to focus on. Individuals and city planners have been told, over and over again, that this is a large storm that will have widespread damage. Individuals who choose to make life-and-death decisions based on the path of the eye cannot reasonably claim they did so based on informed advice.
An ArsTechnica piece by Eric Berger, dated Sep 8, is a good starting point for anyone who wishes to learn more about this, since it has good links to model-intercomparison studies as well as some notes on an upcoming change to the American models that experts worry will degrade predictive power even more.
Although it may be useful to note that the early ECMF predictions (and also those of the Canadian model, called CMC) suggested an Irma trajectory further to the west than other models, no modelling group, and no qualified media forecaster, failed to state repeatedly that the exact pathway is not something to focus on. Individuals and city planners have been told, over and over again, that this is a large storm that will have widespread damage. Individuals who choose to make life-and-death decisions based on the path of the eye cannot reasonably claim they did so based on informed advice.
85
Eric Berger from ArsTechnica has been writing some phenomenally informative articles about these hurricanes and model predictions. His expertise, as well as his thorough-yet-easy-to-understand writing style, are second to none on this subject as far as I'm concerned. He is also active in the comments, too, adding further clarity and insights.
Highly recommended for anyone wanting to learn more.
Highly recommended for anyone wanting to learn more.
2
That article is hogwash and is, by its headline it is trying to make NOAA/NHC seem incompetent. Granted, the EURO has performed well with Irma but it does not mean it has performed or will perform well with other hurricanes. Would we be discounting the EURO then if it performed bad with Storm X?. Probably not. NHC uses many models for forecasting and I have yet to hear any reputable forecaster betting on only one.
In the early IRMA runs the EURO was discounted during the official forecast because it was the only one showing a southern bias which never verified. The official NHC forecasts is always a blend of many models and forecaster insight and experience.
In the early IRMA runs the EURO was discounted during the official forecast because it was the only one showing a southern bias which never verified. The official NHC forecasts is always a blend of many models and forecaster insight and experience.
1
I distinctly recall seeing that the "European Model" predicted the most easterly path early last week. I noticed because I live on the west cost and was of course not wanting to see it come that way. I recall silently cheering for the European model and seeing the other models predicting center, to left of center, of fla peninsula. Was I seeing things?
The weather-predictors did just fine:
"Chalk it up the so called experts completely misjudging the path of Irma,"
As someone else pointed out, people living in tornado areas get about 5 minutes' warning if they're lucky, and we get no warning at all of earthquakes out here.
According to a friend who lives in Sarasota (west coast of Florida), they got ample warning of the storm's changed course. The failure of most residents to leave appears to have been a conscious choice by them. Few have, he says. A calculated risk, no question, but he tells me that local warnings aren't quite as dire as what one reads here.
"Chalk it up the so called experts completely misjudging the path of Irma,"
As someone else pointed out, people living in tornado areas get about 5 minutes' warning if they're lucky, and we get no warning at all of earthquakes out here.
According to a friend who lives in Sarasota (west coast of Florida), they got ample warning of the storm's changed course. The failure of most residents to leave appears to have been a conscious choice by them. Few have, he says. A calculated risk, no question, but he tells me that local warnings aren't quite as dire as what one reads here.
11
There are many who could not evacuate due to lack of transportation. Larger cities like Miami evacuated people by bus, but people living outside the city who didn't have working vehicles or fuel had no choice but to wait it out.
4
HAS THE NY TIMES BEEN PAYING ATTENTION???!!!! the projection cones in the US AND the european model of 52 someodd runs have BOTH included aTampa. Thats why people there have been preparing since early this week. It just wasnt a mandatory evacuation area by the State of Florida and their climste change denier governor. NOW is the time to discuss climate change, because you might not wantt to rebuild in the same place or methods. Plus it it on people's minds.
23
The degree of ignorance of some of the FLorida and Texas Delegation is astounding. They including their idiotic Governor deny Climate Change as their State is being destroyed. Then they deny funding for Disasters such as Irma and Harvey just because it is tied to a Debt Ceiling. Furthermore, neither State has an Income Tax and depend so much on Federal money. Such hypocrisy.
64
Then the proud state of Texas is eager to pay for Harvey all on its heroic lone-star lonesome?
Odd, because so far they haven't even dipped into the state's rainy day fund...which is a tad bit more than even the PRELIMINARY federal appropriation for Texas.
One also wonders who you think paid for the EPA, FEMA, National Guard, and Coast Guard help. Pixies?
Odd, because so far they haven't even dipped into the state's rainy day fund...which is a tad bit more than even the PRELIMINARY federal appropriation for Texas.
One also wonders who you think paid for the EPA, FEMA, National Guard, and Coast Guard help. Pixies?
5
Gov. Scott instructed his departments not to use the words "climate change", as if that does anything to protect anyone other than the GOP fossil fuel donors.
1
You're simply wrong. According to the Tax Foundation, each of those states relies on federal funding for a third of its revenue.
4
Only a few more days until the disaster capitalists descend on the weakened and shocked populace. Then the real catastrophe begins. Good luck, people.
9
Couldn't agree more. Let's prevent FEMA and any other non-local body whatever from going in there with money and so-called aid. Let the locals deal with it all entirely by themselves. They chose to live there and ignore all the warnings, after all.
3
America's soul is intact. No matter where we are in this land, none of us rest when any of us are under attack.
If prayer didn't work - we wouldn't do it. To our brothers and sisters in Florida, and Texas - you can count on the rest of us.
If prayer didn't work - we wouldn't do it. To our brothers and sisters in Florida, and Texas - you can count on the rest of us.
8
"Yes, we have always had hurricanes, but not like these."
According to this NYT Article, Cuban officials are saying it's been almost 100 years (1924) since a Category 5 storm hit Cuba.
Not clear yet about the Keys. Those who live there still talk about the hurricane that nearly wiped out the Keys in the 1930s (long before they were there, of course, but stories get passed down). From this article, it sounds like Irma could rival that one, though it's too early to tell (this article doesn't include any photos from the Keys).
According to this NYT Article, Cuban officials are saying it's been almost 100 years (1924) since a Category 5 storm hit Cuba.
Not clear yet about the Keys. Those who live there still talk about the hurricane that nearly wiped out the Keys in the 1930s (long before they were there, of course, but stories get passed down). From this article, it sounds like Irma could rival that one, though it's too early to tell (this article doesn't include any photos from the Keys).
1
The prediction cones included the west coast. The mid-point of the cone had it going up the spine, but all graphics clearly indicated travel up either coast was possible.
13
It is not quite fair to have "Contrary to predictions" on the home page. At least the NWS gave a large cone of probability to the Irma track and updated it as time went on. In this day and age of fake news and anti-science opinions, the choice of words is unfortunate.
29
They should say 'contrary to initial predictions'. And they should also PRAISE the NHC for operating as well as it does with an administration openly hostile to it's stated mission. Can you imagine if we had NO weather forecasting resources, as I'm sure the Trump administration would love to do.
11
I hope Salvidor Dali's paintings hanging in th Dali Museum in St. Peteersburg are safe. It's a big building so I hope they brought them all to the top floor!
4
This isn't climate change. This is our climate. If fossil fuels disappeared tomorrow, the CO2 levels wouldn't change for hundreds of years.
Since the equation for maximum wind velocity in a hurricane has ocean surface temperature in the numerator, no one should doubt business as usual poses risk going forward.
But can we wait until people are out of danger and we're paying the bills to have this discussion?
Since the equation for maximum wind velocity in a hurricane has ocean surface temperature in the numerator, no one should doubt business as usual poses risk going forward.
But can we wait until people are out of danger and we're paying the bills to have this discussion?
2
Thanks, I prefer to go with the massive amount of data assembled than to just take your word for it. We would just as soon continue to "discuss" climate change, knowing that if we wait as you suggest, you won't want to talk about it then either.
23
It's Climate Change in part. But it's also the other stupid decisions people make about the environment. Building in a flood plain, in a chapparral, draining wet lands, and deep ripping add to the problems brought on by burning fossil fuels.
Climate Change is reality based on good science. Denial is alt reality based on bad politics.
Climate Change is reality based on good science. Denial is alt reality based on bad politics.
5
I keep seeing police and fire chiefs announcing to the public that first responders will not respond to any calls whatsoever once winds reach 35 mph because it would put their lives at risk. On one level this seems sensible. But I'm trying to imagine the scene right now in a boarded up police headquarters filled with professionals who signed on to the job in order to help the public. Are they playing cards? Cooking? Answering calls but telling people they can't respond right now even to a dire emergency? Do they argue about who can leave the building and under what circumstances? We need to update our disaster film scenarios.
5
People were warned well in advance to get out. If they are stupid enough to stay, they shouldn't expect someone else to bail them out. At some point, we have to take responsibility for our own safety. I can't believe you are leveling a critique at first responders over this particular point.
10
They are making sure they are ready to go as soon as they are allowed. That means checking over their vehicles and supplies, doing last-minute training for the kind of situations they might encounter and making plans as new information rolls in.
The ones who aren't doing that, are checking on their families.
The ones who aren't doing that, are checking on their families.
4
They are trying to make an impression so that people who would otherwise not listen will do so. They will certainly do all they can to help, even risking their own lives, and long after 35 mph. But they will do all in their power to get it across that shrugging until 35 is becoming 50 or 60 with gusts to 100 is not okay. My daughter in law is a nurse there, and they are doing everything they can just to care for those who CAN'T leave. If you need some thoughts to keep your imagination busy, think of her.
3
Many good thoughts, many tall prayers for all those along the course of this storm--that is all I can say right now.
6
Thank you to the NY Times for covering what has happened and is happening in the Caribbean. The lack of coverage by the major TV news networks and the Weather Channel on this is astounding.
15
"Gov. Rick Scott of Florida warned on Saturday night that the state could get as much as 18 inches of rain..."
I hadn't known this until yesterday, but Florida (at least Sarasota), was hit with a very heavy rain just two weeks ago -- 9 inches in less than 3 hours, according to a friend who lives there. He said a nearby lake couldn't drain quickly enough and flooded the lawn leading (nearly) up to his home. If 18 inches fall this time (depending on the rainfall time period and lake-drainage rate, of course), it sounds like the flooding could reach his home. Knowing my friend, I'm sure he's prepared for that, but it does sound frightening.
Out here in San Francisco, hurricanes and flooding aren't concerns. Earthquakes are, of course, and the extensive coverage of Irma made us remember yesterday that we never followed through on our post-1989-quake plan to stock our basement and garage with emergency supplies of things like bottled water, flashlights, blankets, etc. We should, though I suspect we'll put it off once again.
I hadn't known this until yesterday, but Florida (at least Sarasota), was hit with a very heavy rain just two weeks ago -- 9 inches in less than 3 hours, according to a friend who lives there. He said a nearby lake couldn't drain quickly enough and flooded the lawn leading (nearly) up to his home. If 18 inches fall this time (depending on the rainfall time period and lake-drainage rate, of course), it sounds like the flooding could reach his home. Knowing my friend, I'm sure he's prepared for that, but it does sound frightening.
Out here in San Francisco, hurricanes and flooding aren't concerns. Earthquakes are, of course, and the extensive coverage of Irma made us remember yesterday that we never followed through on our post-1989-quake plan to stock our basement and garage with emergency supplies of things like bottled water, flashlights, blankets, etc. We should, though I suspect we'll put it off once again.
6
I thought about updating my kit after the recent Mexico quake but the scientists tell us that when the "big one" comes, Mt. Rainier will blow up like St. Helens did and we will all be covered in lava and ash. That everything west of the Cascades will crumble and a tsunami will rush to the outskirts of Spokane. No hope for us here in Seattle, no hope they say:)
1
When a loved one is needlessly lost (drunk driving, the mother of Heather Heyer, etc.) the bereaved generally find solace in the possibility that, if a related lesson is drawn from the experience, the loss may not totally have been in vain. The right, however, has their own twisted brand of "political correctness" which presently frustrates that natural and legitimate process called... thinking.
In the case of Irma and Harvey what are the lessons? The EPA has scrubbed references to climate change from their literature and website. The Energy, Interior, and Agriculture Departments are allies. The right declares that what they euphemistically call "extreme weather events" being branded as the "double-C word" is taking advantage of other people's misfortune. Really?
By these standards I guess that would similarly make Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD) serious opportunists.
What about the absence of building codes in Houston and elsewhere that permit residential neighborhoods right next to chemical factories? Or the construction of housing in flood zones? These are no more "natural disasters" than being hit by lightening while carrying a tall metal object in a thunder storm is a natural disaster.
When will the scientifically verifiable lessons from these events be drawn and measures taken to protect the innocents, let alone generations yet unborn, from the irresponsible greed and rapacity of a powerful few that currently dominate our highly undemocratic democracy?
In the case of Irma and Harvey what are the lessons? The EPA has scrubbed references to climate change from their literature and website. The Energy, Interior, and Agriculture Departments are allies. The right declares that what they euphemistically call "extreme weather events" being branded as the "double-C word" is taking advantage of other people's misfortune. Really?
By these standards I guess that would similarly make Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD) serious opportunists.
What about the absence of building codes in Houston and elsewhere that permit residential neighborhoods right next to chemical factories? Or the construction of housing in flood zones? These are no more "natural disasters" than being hit by lightening while carrying a tall metal object in a thunder storm is a natural disaster.
When will the scientifically verifiable lessons from these events be drawn and measures taken to protect the innocents, let alone generations yet unborn, from the irresponsible greed and rapacity of a powerful few that currently dominate our highly undemocratic democracy?
48
I remember a recent piece on CBS Sunday Morning showing that the Netherlands have caught on to this idea of not building in flood plains. It seems to be working for them. Do you think we should maybe consult with them a little?
7
If climate change caused Irma and Harvey, why is it that we had a record 12 years that a major hurricane didn't made landfall in the United States?
Those 12 years were an unprecedented drought of hurricanes. Did climate chance cause that, too?
Those 12 years were an unprecedented drought of hurricanes. Did climate chance cause that, too?
3
Current models suggest that warmer surface temperatures will lead to fewer but more intense storms.
So, yes, climate change may have influenced the recent dirth of hurricanes. Or not. Climate change isn't the kind of thing that you point to and say, 'THAT storm wouldn't have happened without increased CO2 emissions.' The only thing we know is that increased warming leads to more extreme and unusual weather patterns. Weather, like medicine, is about probability not certainty. It's why climate change deniers and anti-vaccers are so hard to convince.
Here's an analogy. More than 50 years ago, we knew that smoking drastically increased the likelihood of getting cancer. However, we didn't have the technology then to pin point exactly how smoking caused cancer or who would get it. About 13% of lung cancers occur in non-smokers. So big tobacco used those facts to convince millions of people that smoking was safe and that scientists didn't know what they were talking about -- after all, they couldn't explain why some people who smoked didn't get cancer and some people who didn't smoke got cancer anyway. It was extremely effective because Americans don't understand probability or science. Big oil has done the same thing, except it's the whole world who will suffer in 60 years and not just the people who flicked the lighter.
So, yes, climate change may have influenced the recent dirth of hurricanes. Or not. Climate change isn't the kind of thing that you point to and say, 'THAT storm wouldn't have happened without increased CO2 emissions.' The only thing we know is that increased warming leads to more extreme and unusual weather patterns. Weather, like medicine, is about probability not certainty. It's why climate change deniers and anti-vaccers are so hard to convince.
Here's an analogy. More than 50 years ago, we knew that smoking drastically increased the likelihood of getting cancer. However, we didn't have the technology then to pin point exactly how smoking caused cancer or who would get it. About 13% of lung cancers occur in non-smokers. So big tobacco used those facts to convince millions of people that smoking was safe and that scientists didn't know what they were talking about -- after all, they couldn't explain why some people who smoked didn't get cancer and some people who didn't smoke got cancer anyway. It was extremely effective because Americans don't understand probability or science. Big oil has done the same thing, except it's the whole world who will suffer in 60 years and not just the people who flicked the lighter.
2
As the u.s. and the planet fill up with people and our sprawl stretches out in all directions, every disaster will just get worse. Add in global warming (caused, wait for it...by our booming population) we are at the beginning of a new age. With coastal areas filling with people and our mega cities, everything that happens will be magnified, just like the storms. Get used to it. The only thing that will not happen is a recognition that we are breaking the natural systems that used to buffer these events and that every politician will proclaim "we're going to rebuild!" ensuring their reelection and a reset so we can do it all over again.
13
Al, spot on, ever increasing population rates = increase in burning of fossil fuels. And since the US and other developed / industrial countries burn more than developing / less industrial countries, mass migration to the US will only increase CO2 emissions that much more. But try explaining that to the immigration advocates who do not make the connection.
4
You have failed to take into account that more and more immigrants are already victims of climate change and this will increase in the future. It is the right wing ideology that has encouraged women to assume they are not proper women unless they produce children and have put massive social pressure on childless women.
2
Ceri, the cause of our mess are multi focal. Religion, which almost universally says women are here to have kids (and keep their mouths shut) and which also has been fighting science and modernity from the beginning (long before right wingers got into the game) which produces even more ignorance, superstition and fear of anything not in one of the good books, to advocating outbreeding the competition. We will not solve ours or the planets problems by just bringing more immigrants here. The countries producing them will quickly fill those empty places and we'll be right back where we were only more crowded and closer to those countries sad predicaments who will happily send the new crop of immigrants our way ASAP. The way forward is to help them solve their problems at home ( birth control being number one) and cut back our extravagent, wasteful lifestyle here while brining our own population down to a sustainable level. Of coarse, none of this is going to happen so get out a bunch of masking tape for the windows and a check book to pay for the catastrophe du jour.
4
The language about the western shift being "contrary to predictions" is absolutely wrong. Although the east-coast track was considered more likely, the west-coast track has always been within the cone of uncertainty. This is easily verified, since the NHC archives all previous predictions. The current most-likely track has always been inside all previous cones of uncertainty. Thus, it certainly cannot be contrary to any of the prior predictions.
21
In Sarasota, just me and my two kids... shutters are up, water is stored. Very worried about possible storm surge. I hope we'll all get through this okay. My county was rather lethargic at getting shelters organized, and my immediate area has none.
17
Of course, one cannot say a particular bit of weather is "caused" by global warming.
One can, however, point to the fact that waters in the Gulf and Southern Atlantic are as much as 7 degrees hotter than normal. Hot water is fuel for hurricanes. And hotter water is due to global warming.
Scientists and meteorologists must get over this fear of being embroiled in politics and speak out, rather than allowing extremists (yes, I absolutely do mean Al Gore) and deniers to do the talking outside the scientific conferences. By not speaking out, the actual scientists are doing a disservice to all of us, including themselves.
One can, however, point to the fact that waters in the Gulf and Southern Atlantic are as much as 7 degrees hotter than normal. Hot water is fuel for hurricanes. And hotter water is due to global warming.
Scientists and meteorologists must get over this fear of being embroiled in politics and speak out, rather than allowing extremists (yes, I absolutely do mean Al Gore) and deniers to do the talking outside the scientific conferences. By not speaking out, the actual scientists are doing a disservice to all of us, including themselves.
11
I agree. The article on The Weather Channel said they pussyfoot around the subject of global warming for fear of offending their viewership that "leans right." Media should be reporting on facts, including that we are in for stronger storms from warmer waters, not hiding them.
3
I feel badly for the folks who left the eastern coast and evacuated to the west coast only to have to boomerang back to the east. They must feel somewhat defeated even before the storm has hit. The stress levels of Floridians must be extremely high. Surprisingly there have not been many reports of violence and may I add, yet. It must be a social pressure cooker in many of the public shelters. Hard times ahead for many.
5
Every NWS prediction also included warning that the ability to predict was off by a hundred or so miles.
A Model is just that. It's not a map!
A Model is just that. It's not a map!
19
The Dust Bowl of the Thirties was the result of human lack of knowledge. It was unknown then that over-farming, livestock over-grazing, drought and poor farming practices could lead to serious dust storms and more than 100 million acres of affected land. We learned important lessons that helped us change our behavior and halt that particular kind of destruction. "When we know better we do better."
Presently, of course, our focus is the weather and whether or not climate change is fact or fiction. Most scientists believe it's "an inconvenient truth" caused once more by human ignorance-based behavior that's not only causing global warming but, of course, also ocean warming that's fueling hurricanes and making them even more catastrophic than they might otherwise be.
So, we must put pressure on the powers that be who remain resistant to scientific knowledge and truth (for whatever reasons) to change their minds and help us collectively act to become more Mother-Earth-friendly before it's too late (unless it already is) and before more people have to contend with the death and humongous destruction caused by a Harvey or an Irma etc.
In the meantime, God speed Florida. Last week we were all Texans. Today we are all Floridians.
Presently, of course, our focus is the weather and whether or not climate change is fact or fiction. Most scientists believe it's "an inconvenient truth" caused once more by human ignorance-based behavior that's not only causing global warming but, of course, also ocean warming that's fueling hurricanes and making them even more catastrophic than they might otherwise be.
So, we must put pressure on the powers that be who remain resistant to scientific knowledge and truth (for whatever reasons) to change their minds and help us collectively act to become more Mother-Earth-friendly before it's too late (unless it already is) and before more people have to contend with the death and humongous destruction caused by a Harvey or an Irma etc.
In the meantime, God speed Florida. Last week we were all Texans. Today we are all Floridians.
9
As great are my anticipated fears for Florida, I quake at the implications to Georgia. I guess Sherman wasn't enough.
8
I've had one friend killed in a hurricane. It was in Vermont.
8
Dear Richard Luettgen,
I don't recall a hurricane Sherman, but Georgia should be fine. By the time this storm gets up there the wind speed is going to be down to about 40 mph, an average thunderstorm and nothing more. Don't get carried away by the hype about this storm.
I don't recall a hurricane Sherman, but Georgia should be fine. By the time this storm gets up there the wind speed is going to be down to about 40 mph, an average thunderstorm and nothing more. Don't get carried away by the hype about this storm.
2
No New York Times, I believe if you go back and look at the way the European Prediction Center presented possible paths you will see that there was what looked like spaghetti with paths flaring out northward from a central point. I may have a screen dump of that but I do not think in the presentation there was information about probabilities path by path.
I call this to readers' attention as does at least one other comment since the NHC staff themselves have stated, I believe, that the European Center has a more advanced program than does the NHC. I submitted a full comment on that yesterday but it has not been reviewed or if reviewed was rejectedl
This difference is important, given our anti-science president. We are the country with hurricanes arriving over big bodies of water and NHC should have the funding to provide the best possible models.
Thanks Times for the best coverage, just want the Europeans to get credit.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Dual citizen US SE
I call this to readers' attention as does at least one other comment since the NHC staff themselves have stated, I believe, that the European Center has a more advanced program than does the NHC. I submitted a full comment on that yesterday but it has not been reviewed or if reviewed was rejectedl
This difference is important, given our anti-science president. We are the country with hurricanes arriving over big bodies of water and NHC should have the funding to provide the best possible models.
Thanks Times for the best coverage, just want the Europeans to get credit.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Dual citizen US SE
229
I beleive the difference lies mostly in the fact that the European scientists have a more powerful supercomputer, and run it for many hours longer. US forecasters run their model four times a day, and don't have comparable hardware.
President Obama had proposed greater funding for NOAA - no need to ask what happened to that.
President Obama had proposed greater funding for NOAA - no need to ask what happened to that.
12
Please point out the quote where NHC said that the EURO model is better than any other model? The link please....
@ Phil - Here is a start, googling turns up many but I do not have time to read them.https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/us-forecast-models-have-been-pre...
1
NASA blew it -- strange since they knew weather systems (fronts) which have been in place on the US east coast all last week should have indicated that the storm was going to forced further to the west ---
Oh well they do the best and a big cheer for that --
Oh well they do the best and a big cheer for that --
1
Perfection will forever remain the enemy of the good, that's true.
NASA did a good job, considering that no forecasts are ever 100% accurate. The hurricane is still hitting Florida, and the fact the the west coast is getting the brunt rather than the east is little comfort to those who are losing everything, including some who may not live to see tomorrow.
NASA did a good job, considering that no forecasts are ever 100% accurate. The hurricane is still hitting Florida, and the fact the the west coast is getting the brunt rather than the east is little comfort to those who are losing everything, including some who may not live to see tomorrow.
9
NASA blew what? They do not do hurricane forecasts. NHC does.
9
Maybe they should establish a line of communication on this subject and share pertinent information.
Chalk it up the so called experts completely misjudging the path of Irma,
3
Read the other comments here. There is a cone of probability. The hurricane is moving within that cone--as predicted. This must be the first hurricane that you have ever paid attention to or you would realize that this kind of movement is par for the course. Indeed, for all of those who wonder why people choose to ride it out instead of evacuating, many of the people who stay do so because they know that hurricanes may look like they are headed straight for one area, but then jog in another direction at the last minute.
You may sneer at the experts, but as someone who lives along the Gulf Coast, I am grateful for the work they do.
You may sneer at the experts, but as someone who lives along the Gulf Coast, I am grateful for the work they do.
14
The predictions I saw showed the possible range covering the entire peninsula. That meant the storm would travel somewhere in that area. As it turned out it went more to the west side of the predicted range. It could just as well gone along the Eastern edge or somewhere in between. I think they did pretty darn well considering the huge complexity of the calculations involved.
7
Chalk it up to those that failed to heed the warnings when the experts' forecast was spot on. Did you not realize that BOTH COASTS of Florida were within the watch/warning areas at the same time?
Stop passing the buck...
Stop passing the buck...
2
I cannot believe the incompetence of local officials.
"Hurricane Irma’s sudden drive to the west prompted last-minute orders for evacuation in Collier and Lee Counties in Florida, leaving little time for residents to pack up and find shelter.
“We thought we were safe,” said a spokeswoman for Collier County who declined to give her name because she was not authorized to discuss the situation. “We thought we were safe like 36 hours ago.”
Well, DUHH, you have been under watches and warnings for days and you knew that there was a possibility that you were going to get hit. The hurricane IS NOT A POINT. The devastating effects are far reaching. NHC has been saying this for days, and yet people refuse to listen until it is too late.
"Hurricane Irma’s sudden drive to the west prompted last-minute orders for evacuation in Collier and Lee Counties in Florida, leaving little time for residents to pack up and find shelter.
“We thought we were safe,” said a spokeswoman for Collier County who declined to give her name because she was not authorized to discuss the situation. “We thought we were safe like 36 hours ago.”
Well, DUHH, you have been under watches and warnings for days and you knew that there was a possibility that you were going to get hit. The hurricane IS NOT A POINT. The devastating effects are far reaching. NHC has been saying this for days, and yet people refuse to listen until it is too late.
39
I can't believe how brave Anderson Cooper is. He is in harms way wearing just tee shirt while the hurricane is barreling towards him.
4
And his hair looks fabulous!
5
He is just an attention seeking muckracker. Typical of people with big egos.
2
Brave - and surrounded (albeit off camera) by all kind of assistants and preperations for protection.
2
Governor Scott should declare St. Petersburg a disaster area NOW, so that residents can file with FEMA.
2
The storm has remained well within the cone that the NHC posted several days ago. They said not to fixate on any one point on the map, but rather that the storm could bring dangerous conditions to any point within the cone's swath. And that is exactly what has happened. The Times should know better than to mischaracterize any of this as "contrary to predictions." Shame on the editors -- this is not a good time to be denigrating scientists.
127
Presumably those Floridia Congressmen and women who voted against aid for the victims of Hurricane Harvey which innundated Texas (to say nothing of those that voted against aid for the victims of Super Storm Sandy) will now be voting for aid to their state. All well and good to vote "No" unless, of course, it is your constituents.
Hoping for the best for the
Hoping for the best for the
8
Actually, 90 Republicans voted no on Hurricane Harvey aid and a number of Republicans chose not to vote. I'm quite certain that more than one or two were from Florida and, of course, some were from Texas.
2
How can it hit St. Petersburg hard without hitting Tampa hard? They are next to each other.
8
So it's looking like Irma was considerably destructive in some islands in the Caribbean, but has lost steam, changed paths, and is not going to be anywhere near as destructive in Florida as predicted.
All this talk of "this is the big one", "bigger than Andrew", "the end of times", was all wrong. Start admitting it now, because it's going to be pretty obvious soon, this is not the strongest hurricane ever. Also it no longer looks like Jose or Katia will hit the U.S. at all.
The unfortunate thing is with these massive evacuations, people are going to go back to their homes in Miami and find them completely untouched. Everyone is going to go, why the heck did we have to evacuate for that, and next time they'll be resistant to the warnings. This hugely hyperbolic coverage was not a good idea, because next time around all warnings will be disregarded, probably correctly.
Y'all have to learn to relax about the fact that hurricanes come along every year.
All this talk of "this is the big one", "bigger than Andrew", "the end of times", was all wrong. Start admitting it now, because it's going to be pretty obvious soon, this is not the strongest hurricane ever. Also it no longer looks like Jose or Katia will hit the U.S. at all.
The unfortunate thing is with these massive evacuations, people are going to go back to their homes in Miami and find them completely untouched. Everyone is going to go, why the heck did we have to evacuate for that, and next time they'll be resistant to the warnings. This hugely hyperbolic coverage was not a good idea, because next time around all warnings will be disregarded, probably correctly.
Y'all have to learn to relax about the fact that hurricanes come along every year.
4
It never looked like Katia was going to hit the USA, nor did anyone claim such, and I have read extensive coverage of the hurricanes at multiples websites, and never seen anything about Jose's path other than it was heading for the same islands.
6
Excellent thinking. Next time a monster hurricane hits, everybody should just relax and stay home, because you never know: they might get lucky!
5
You're absolutely right that when people evacuate, and the storm turns, it makes them resistant to evacuate the next time. But anyone who knows anything at all about hurricanes, knows that they change course. That is the nature of the beast. But what's the alternative? Telling people it will probably be okay and they should just stay put?
8
Brace yourselves New York City. Josie is coming to you next.
Welcome to climate change, two words that CNN have not mentioned once.
Welcome to climate change, two words that CNN have not mentioned once.
11
Dear Cookies,
We'll be fine, there's not going to be any hurricane damage here this year. Irma is going to hit here as a thunderstorm on Wednesday or so, and Jose (not Josie) is not going to hit us at all. Climate change is a problem, but hurricanes are usually not a problem for NYC.
We'll be fine, there's not going to be any hurricane damage here this year. Irma is going to hit here as a thunderstorm on Wednesday or so, and Jose (not Josie) is not going to hit us at all. Climate change is a problem, but hurricanes are usually not a problem for NYC.
2
I pray that everyone comes through this horrible storm alive! Republicans & fundamentalist Christians have been denying climate change since the first alarm bell. This makes me very angry right now! Had we listened instead of using climate change as a political weapon, would either Harvey or Irma been smaller & less destructive? Florida communities have been witness to rising sea levels and trying to bolster their infrastructure to deal with these changes. That is difficult when the federal government is high jacked by people who put party over country. Notice how Trump has stayed silent, or at least the media isn't bothering to cover his oft ridiculous tweets.
NOW is the time to talk about climate change!
NOW is the time to talk about climate change!
48
Totally with you Vickie. These stronger storms were predicted and preventable. It's criminal that GOP leadership has denied the science and failed to protect us from harm.
13
Everybody please stop using the meaningless term "Climate Change." The correct term is "Global Warming."
"NOW is the time to talk about climate change!"
Haven't you been listening to the GOP? That's "politcizing a tragedy". Just like you can't talk about gun control after a mass shooting.
Haven't you been listening to the GOP? That's "politcizing a tragedy". Just like you can't talk about gun control after a mass shooting.
2
This story is very informative and conveys the scope of the damage sans the exhausting theatrics of cable TV. Thank you NYT.
5
The governor of Florida -- get out, when the storm comes we can't help you.
Response from maybe a quarter of people there -- we don't have cars, or gas money, or money to stockpile food and water.
I looked for the story "Miami City Buses evacuate thousands from poor neighborhoods" ... "Supermarkets empty warehouses and ask for volunteers to deliver supplies ahead of hurricane."
I can't find those stories.
Response from maybe a quarter of people there -- we don't have cars, or gas money, or money to stockpile food and water.
I looked for the story "Miami City Buses evacuate thousands from poor neighborhoods" ... "Supermarkets empty warehouses and ask for volunteers to deliver supplies ahead of hurricane."
I can't find those stories.
150
Free buses and trolleys have been evacuating people in Miami Beach since at least Thursday.
1
As the earth tries to deal with an increasingly warmer climate, these catastrophic weather events will be more common . Does POTUS 45 still believe Climate change is a hoax perpetuated by China?
22
I don't think he has an opinion on that. He is parroting what his benefactors want him to say on that topic .
2
"Does POTUS 45 still believe Climate change is a hoax perpetuated by China?"
POTUS doesn't believe in anything, other than telling his base what they want to hear. If they wanted to hear precisely the opposite, that's precisely what he'd be yammering.
POTUS doesn't believe in anything, other than telling his base what they want to hear. If they wanted to hear precisely the opposite, that's precisely what he'd be yammering.
6
Does it really matter? We aren't going to do anything about it, regardless of how many worthless pieces of paper BHO signed or DJT blows off. Truly dealing with climate change will require the kind of commitment and change no one on the planet is prepared to do. A whole new way of living and therefore economy, and reducing our numbers to a sustainable level. None of that is even being discussed.
The NYT is actually doing some good and putting its "Crusade" against Trump at rest. As a Trump voter, I'm really glad to see NYT girding up and actually helping America on a pressing issue apart from pitting out sketchy and racy "sex scandals" about Trump. "Those 20 women" have all but disappeared and now the real issues confronting America stand. Trump is girding up to be a real responsible president with 15 billion dollars passed for Texas and probably a big amount for Florida as well. Money talks and Trump is walking the talk. The citizens of Florida are a tough lot and I have a lot of friends in there thumbing the storm. So I wish them luck, they're hunkered down, and they are prepared as any humans can. But then with the added good luck, they will surely pull through and it beats being stuck in traffic when the storm changes course to strike unexpectedly. Hunker down, Florida!
4
Whatever critical attention Trump gets, he deserves -- and more -- as he stumbles from one self-inflicted crisis to the next. Trump has been in coverup mode all along, proving that even this vulgarian knows he has crossed boundaries that will sink him, once fully revealed.
2
Of course, this has nothing to do with global warming. The scientists in the US government can't say this, as they would be fired. And of course, energy in the form of heat trapped in the oceans has nothing to do with the strength of hurricanes. With that explanation gone, the only cause we can attribute these destructive storms to is God, in retaliation for being a fake democracy, where twice in the last 16 years, the person losing the election became president.
20
Not the point.
We know there is global warming.
We do not know why we have global warming.
Why do you think you know.
We know there is global warming.
We do not know why we have global warming.
Why do you think you know.
At the time I am writing this the eye of hurricane Irma is passing right over the Naval Air station, one key to the east of Key West. The eye wall itself is over Key West. The storm surge from the north side of Key West must be severe.
We aren't getting real-time data that I can find.
We aren't getting real-time data that I can find.
2
Probably because all the of the measuring devices are gone because of the storm or inoperable.
4
The NYT has hands-down the best coverage of the hurricane out there. I looked in vain for detailed coverage elsewhere. Why should that be?
What precisely is preventing other news outlets from comprehensive coverage as opposed to hyperbolic fear-mongering? This feeds into my impression that our media in general is earning its poor ratings; all it seems capable of doing lately is shrieking & amplifying fear. Everything is armageddon and set at 11. It cannot be unintentional. Remember that the media is owned by a handful of billionaires. I think the constant content-lite sky-is-falling shrieking has to do with a corporate decision that a) fear sells really well and b) they don't need to pay seasoned reporters/journalists to create that fear.
I wish the NYT would stick with its niche of quality and content, but I've unfortunately seen it slip more and more into one-note, hysteria-driven fear-mongering too.... Articles like this one give me some small hope.
What precisely is preventing other news outlets from comprehensive coverage as opposed to hyperbolic fear-mongering? This feeds into my impression that our media in general is earning its poor ratings; all it seems capable of doing lately is shrieking & amplifying fear. Everything is armageddon and set at 11. It cannot be unintentional. Remember that the media is owned by a handful of billionaires. I think the constant content-lite sky-is-falling shrieking has to do with a corporate decision that a) fear sells really well and b) they don't need to pay seasoned reporters/journalists to create that fear.
I wish the NYT would stick with its niche of quality and content, but I've unfortunately seen it slip more and more into one-note, hysteria-driven fear-mongering too.... Articles like this one give me some small hope.
11
Why no news from USVI?
From St. John:
"There have been suggestions that the government’s planning for the storm was inadequate and didn’t take into considerations of the front line responders.
One officer, who asked that his name not be used, said “”there is no plan. … There is no emergency plan in effect.”
An emergency medical technician said, From “The EOC (emergency operations center) did not listen to people with boots on the ground. We were left out of the planning.”
http://stthomassource.com/content/2017/09/09/help-arrives-for-storm-batt...
From St. John:
"There have been suggestions that the government’s planning for the storm was inadequate and didn’t take into considerations of the front line responders.
One officer, who asked that his name not be used, said “”there is no plan. … There is no emergency plan in effect.”
An emergency medical technician said, From “The EOC (emergency operations center) did not listen to people with boots on the ground. We were left out of the planning.”
http://stthomassource.com/content/2017/09/09/help-arrives-for-storm-batt...
3
I applaud the NYT for providing free coverage of Irma. I'm following the storm on the ABC affiliate Local 10 news of South Florida, which is uninterrupted by commercials. It makes me wonder whether the lunatic reporters at CNN or the Weather Channel are being egged on by producers to stand outside in the middle of the hurricane right now! My family live in North Miami Beach are under a curfew until 11am. My mother is working at a Hospital in North Miami throughout the entire hurricane and I hope she doesn't have her time wasted by injuries sustained to reporters who should be indoors until its over. The coverage from Local 10 is far more sober and helpful than the over dramatized and acted reports from CNN and the Weather Channel roving journalists who are being irresponsible and breaking curfew.
9
The bigger question is will the climate change deniers in state and federal offices finally admit what everyone knows? Will the GOP forego their plan to further destroy our economy by lowering taxes on the rich, many of whom are indirectly responsible for the damage through their funding of climate change denial?
Let the fossil fuel industry pick up the tab for these storms. They are the ones who have been profiting from denial. Yes, we have always had hurricanes, but not like these.
Time for the GOP to take responsibility for enabling us to reach the tipping point. Jimmy Carter put solar panels on the White House and urged us to change; but Reagan, the destroyer, removed them. We were warned; it is here. Like the fable of the grasshopper and the ants, we failed to take action to prevent climate change from becoming a global disaster. We pumped more and more carbon into the atmosphere as if there would never be a reckoning, and the GOP has the nerve to blame others for being irresponsible for lesser things!
We can no longer hope to stop climate disruption. Will we also keep our collective head in the sand and refuse to take action to adapt? Will we allow the fossil fuel industry to walk away without any consequences? Do they get to ingore the suffering their lies have brought?
Let the fossil fuel industry pick up the tab for these storms. They are the ones who have been profiting from denial. Yes, we have always had hurricanes, but not like these.
Time for the GOP to take responsibility for enabling us to reach the tipping point. Jimmy Carter put solar panels on the White House and urged us to change; but Reagan, the destroyer, removed them. We were warned; it is here. Like the fable of the grasshopper and the ants, we failed to take action to prevent climate change from becoming a global disaster. We pumped more and more carbon into the atmosphere as if there would never be a reckoning, and the GOP has the nerve to blame others for being irresponsible for lesser things!
We can no longer hope to stop climate disruption. Will we also keep our collective head in the sand and refuse to take action to adapt? Will we allow the fossil fuel industry to walk away without any consequences? Do they get to ingore the suffering their lies have brought?
125
The financial industry walked away without any consequences, under a Democrat President no less. So I'm not holding my breath that the fossil fuel and construction industry who have worked so hard to destroy regulations in these two states will pay a dime.
3
How are we going to pay for all this damage - Harvey, Irma and Jose to come?
Here's an idea: After the damage costs of the three hurricanes can be estimated, Trump should make a speech on national TV and tell the American people that financing the reconstruction will require adding $200,000,000,000 (or so) to the national debt. We can borrow this money from China (and other countries that buy our Treasury securities) or we can pay for it ourselves.
How do we pay for it ourselves? We establish a Go Fund Me page for America. That's the concept. The name of the fund can be whatever, but there should be one destination for all charitable contributions dedicated to hurricane relief. We could keep a running total of what's been raised and how much more is needed. Everyone - including corporations (think of all that good PR), private businesses, all citizens, charitable foundations, political parties, unions, churches and so forth could contribute. A true national effort.
Maybe it would help to bring us all together...
Here's an idea: After the damage costs of the three hurricanes can be estimated, Trump should make a speech on national TV and tell the American people that financing the reconstruction will require adding $200,000,000,000 (or so) to the national debt. We can borrow this money from China (and other countries that buy our Treasury securities) or we can pay for it ourselves.
How do we pay for it ourselves? We establish a Go Fund Me page for America. That's the concept. The name of the fund can be whatever, but there should be one destination for all charitable contributions dedicated to hurricane relief. We could keep a running total of what's been raised and how much more is needed. Everyone - including corporations (think of all that good PR), private businesses, all citizens, charitable foundations, political parties, unions, churches and so forth could contribute. A true national effort.
Maybe it would help to bring us all together...
5
A Go Fund Me page.
Don't we already have that? I think it's called "Form 1040".
If we want to come together maybe we can just accept that taxes are the price of a civil society and all should pay based on their *ability* to pay. You know, progressive taxation.
Or we can continue with the greed is good, I got mine, go get yours, women and children first - after I have a seat, Randian, unregulated market failures approach.
We can dress this debate up any way you like but either you believe you *are* your brothers keeper ... or you don't.
Don't we already have that? I think it's called "Form 1040".
If we want to come together maybe we can just accept that taxes are the price of a civil society and all should pay based on their *ability* to pay. You know, progressive taxation.
Or we can continue with the greed is good, I got mine, go get yours, women and children first - after I have a seat, Randian, unregulated market failures approach.
We can dress this debate up any way you like but either you believe you *are* your brothers keeper ... or you don't.
19
"We establish a Go Fund Me page for America."
Or we could just pay taxes, the way we used to, before the Republicans lost their collective minds, and succumbed the delusion that America become great without cost to the taxpayers.
Or we could just pay taxes, the way we used to, before the Republicans lost their collective minds, and succumbed the delusion that America become great without cost to the taxpayers.
18
Anyone can already just write a check to the US Treasury, if you feel so inclined or that you don't pay enough in taxes.
2
And to think, there are a bunch of young people in Florida whom, if they are fortunate to make it through this disaster, and then fortunate enough to still have a home which is still inhabitable, must still grapple with the fact that they may still be forced to leave the country and go back to a "native" country in which they may have no family, familiarity, or basis for starting over.
Talk about kicking someone when they're already down on the canvas.
My thoughts go out to all in the path of this hurricane...
Talk about kicking someone when they're already down on the canvas.
My thoughts go out to all in the path of this hurricane...
23
Please don't spend time "praying" for people to be safe. Crack open a book on science, instead, and learn about what you (and each of us) can do to safeguard our planet (and thus each other) from future harm.
No, we can't end hurricanes. But it's science which gives us the satellites, ocean buoys (measuring water temperature, wave height and frequency), and scout planes so meteorologists and computer modelers can discover these giant storms and make predictions about where they are going, and when. This gives people time to get out of the way, instead of waking up dead.
The Bible contains no useful information on discovering or evading hurricanes, because the folks who wrote it never experienced one. Likewise, why would one pray to a god who created the hurricanes in the first place? A lot more lives will be saved by thinking about where it's safe to build and where it's not, informed by our understanding of our planet's climate and what changes are coming our way, whether we like them or not.
No, we can't end hurricanes. But it's science which gives us the satellites, ocean buoys (measuring water temperature, wave height and frequency), and scout planes so meteorologists and computer modelers can discover these giant storms and make predictions about where they are going, and when. This gives people time to get out of the way, instead of waking up dead.
The Bible contains no useful information on discovering or evading hurricanes, because the folks who wrote it never experienced one. Likewise, why would one pray to a god who created the hurricanes in the first place? A lot more lives will be saved by thinking about where it's safe to build and where it's not, informed by our understanding of our planet's climate and what changes are coming our way, whether we like them or not.
487
I'm an agnostic, and view people 'praying' as people who care enough to include others in their beliefs and thoughts. Discounting consideration by others and belittling them in the process is doing just as much damage as any other act, as you've now hardened the position of others. Remember that it is 'progressives', Democrats, who are their worst position since the Civil War, and attitudes like this are one of the reasons why. Keep it up and go the way of the Whigs.
I've also been an advocate of science all my life, having worked in basic science when I was younger, and you are also doing science a disservice.
I've also been an advocate of science all my life, having worked in basic science when I was younger, and you are also doing science a disservice.
2
It's possible both to pray and to study science.
3
Absolutely !
1
Since red states like Florida (currently), Texas (recently) and Louisiana (historically) with Mississippi and Alabama thrown into the mix as residual repositories of the climate change/natural disasters that bedevil the area, one wonders why the state legislatures in these benighted areas, not to mention their citizens' "representatives" in Washington, are so apoplectic and angry at the prospect of an unbalanced federal budget and work so assiduously to deny natural phenomena such as climate change. They pay comparably little into the national treasury as responsible "citizens" who work to keep the country functioning and complain about "liberals" and "elites," the very same whose tax buy-ins go to bail out these waterlogged coastal states who do nothing to prevent these disasters from recurring but, instead, extol the virtues of unlimited development and the "free market" system.
These states waddle up the federal government's trough in times of great peril (such as right now) but hate the government that protects them from catastrophic losses. I have a problem making the connection between their acid condemnation of "givers vs. takers."
Maybe it's just me.
These states waddle up the federal government's trough in times of great peril (such as right now) but hate the government that protects them from catastrophic losses. I have a problem making the connection between their acid condemnation of "givers vs. takers."
Maybe it's just me.
63
Republican ideology has, for years, saddled them with litmus test talking points. Now they just repeat themselves, even though it doesn't make any sense, and is hypocritical. They all think alike inside their echo chamber because they don't think at all.
Following this storm minute by minute is akin to rubbernecking, a product of fascination with disaster frequently described as morbid curiosity.
5
It's interesting that Texas and Florida are the two biggest climate change-deniers. Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are at record levels, 10 degrees above average, and Houston and Miami had the warmest winters on record. Warm water is what fuels hurricanes, making them far more powerful, and they are getting a real-time taste of what global warming does.
279
Your insinuation that Floridians and Texans are being punished for ignoring climate change science is quasi-religious. Your view is reminiscent of the Biblical flood story. Climate deniers are endlessly maddening, but if there were a God I'm pretty sure He'd tell you to show compassion to the victims.
Nonsense. I made no mention of God and there is no religious "insinuation" in my comment.
From where did you get the "10 degrees above average"? Not so, unless you are comparing current day temperature to the annual average, which misrepresents reality, massively. On that basis, every September average has been "above average" -- for the year.
1
What does "a direct hit" even mean with a storm so huge? Isn't the difference between St.Petersburg taking a direct hit quite incremental compared other cities that are very very close by, like Venice, Tampa, Sarasota? Better reporting on this would help those of us trying to understand the risks -- and whether "direct hit" is, in the end, just some extra hype that is not necessary.
My dad's left his boat in Ft Myers and made it as far as Venice so these stories are quite real for some of us and details matter!
My dad's left his boat in Ft Myers and made it as far as Venice so these stories are quite real for some of us and details matter!
81
A direct hit means the storm will last a lot longer for those who live in the area because instead of being hit by a quadrant of the circle the whole storm will grind away at the area as it scrubs past.
3
You can probably kiss that boat goodbye.
Why didn't he move it, and a lot further away? Do you two really think that something as unpredictable as the weather can be accurately predicted by anybody?
Why didn't he move it, and a lot further away? Do you two really think that something as unpredictable as the weather can be accurately predicted by anybody?
1
my dad's boat is on pine island!! i know. He is safe, i hope, in Sarasota. No one is allowed outside.
Awaiting the arrive of the storm later today, I have had to switch the TV off from the news to a calming light classical music station, I have had my fill of endless talking heads standing in moderate breezes wearing rain slickers against a few drops and one hand on their hat, breathless reporting how the flood of Noah is hours away and how the Tempest lays waste all before it. We need accurate information. Yes, the winds around the storms core ARE pretty high. Yes, they do extend out 70 miles, but not in all quadrants, and they drop off alot the farther you go out. Some poor souls will see the worst. Most won't. To know what is going to happen where you are, go to national weather service, type in zip code,click on hurricane local statement. We will have tropical storm winds, not the Apocalypse. To be sure, power is going out and branches are coming down. Check the Duke and FPL power outage maps to watch the damage spread up the State. Last, do look at the models, and I wish the news would discuss those more. For days models like the UKMET predicted a westward shift, NHC followed suit, and it looks like folks in my area are safe: EXCEPT, now the better models are shifting east. We need accurate reporting not 30somethings in slickers chasing falling branches mike in hand.
172
"We will have tropical wind storms, not the Apocalypse. To be sure, power is going out and branches are coming down. "
You won't know what you will have, until after the fact. Unfortunately, there will be far worse than power outages and branches coming down,though I wish that were not the case. You have omitted the storm surge altogether. I am Superstorm Sandy victim. By the time Sandy made landfall in New York, Sandy had been downgraded from Hurricane status, yet there was a 17.5 ocean surge in my area.
My entire City was submerged. Countless people lost their homes, businesses. all their life's possession, etc.
"Some poor souls will see the worst. Most won't. "
I wish that were true.That seems highly unlikely, but time will tell.
I hope that you are safe. and wish you and everyone in the path of the storm
the very best.
You won't know what you will have, until after the fact. Unfortunately, there will be far worse than power outages and branches coming down,though I wish that were not the case. You have omitted the storm surge altogether. I am Superstorm Sandy victim. By the time Sandy made landfall in New York, Sandy had been downgraded from Hurricane status, yet there was a 17.5 ocean surge in my area.
My entire City was submerged. Countless people lost their homes, businesses. all their life's possession, etc.
"Some poor souls will see the worst. Most won't. "
I wish that were true.That seems highly unlikely, but time will tell.
I hope that you are safe. and wish you and everyone in the path of the storm
the very best.
6
Thank you for your thoughts, if I have power tomorrow or am on the generator, and the internet is reachable and the comments are open tomorrow, and the home is still habitable, will post back and give you the hindsight analysis. My point is not to dismiss the danger, but too highlight the need for accurate more meteorologically based reporting examining the potential effects throughout the entire windfield, not just at the core, and with greater emphasis on the limitations of our ability to model where these storms are going.
2
I have never seen such a group of fools cavorting around in the wind and rain as can be seen ad infinitum on CNN and MSNBC. Is this what America needs for news? If so I do finally understand why Trump was elected.
2
It is 9:31 AM in Tampa just off Bay Shore Blvd. Slightly windy and very little rain by Florida standards. But its early. Staying home! Loss of electricity is a major concern. Oh yes...worried about the wind and storm surge too. Pray for those along the east coast of Florida.
9
The prognosis seems dicey as Irma will continue to gather energy from the warm Gulf waters until it makes landfall up by Tampa at the earliest or as tracking now stands Tallahassee.
4
An apocalyptic doomsday scene alright, a severe storm 'playing' with nature and it's invading asphalt jungle as if toys' being tossed around, in a path of destruction and, without a doubt, the pain and suffering inflicted to the 'locals' caught in its whirl. Just don't tell 'denialist' Trump it is being exacerbated by man-made intervention ('climate change' has been omitted from the official lexicon, as directed by Trump's thug in charge, Pruitt). How can you fight a dangerous situation while denying its existence? Go figure.
12
I confess that I do not really feel that bad for the residents of Florida and Texas and the small islands that have been hit by these hurricanes. Did anyone ever look at a map of the United States? Did you see the way the Gulf of Mexico is carved out, as though it has been ravaged by big storms for, say, hundreds of millions of years? And when looking at the map, do you see Florida, and ever wonder why it is shaped the way it is? And then take a peek at the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas and wonder why there is that big indentation there?
You folks enjoy sunshine and pleasant weather for 9 months out of the year. Then disaster hits, then you spend the next several months recovering.
Sounds like moving elsewhere should be a no-brainer.
You folks enjoy sunshine and pleasant weather for 9 months out of the year. Then disaster hits, then you spend the next several months recovering.
Sounds like moving elsewhere should be a no-brainer.
5
https://www.weather.gov/lwx/hurricane_history
Hurricane History for the Washington and Baltimore Region
(last updated 5/25/2012)
[3 19th century cyclones, 1 early 20th century, and 22 named storms since 1952.]
Hurricane History for the Washington and Baltimore Region
(last updated 5/25/2012)
[3 19th century cyclones, 1 early 20th century, and 22 named storms since 1952.]
1
Good grief, did you never take Earth Science in school? The Gulf of Mexico and Florida are the shapes they are because the top of South America used to be nestled in there. The shapes have nothing to do with hurricanes or any other kind of weather. Look up "plate tectonics" or "continental drift." Oh heck, just look here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continental_drift
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continental_drift
3
With all the advanced warnings as well as the graphic photos of the devastation and wreckage in the Caribbean Islands one can only hope that the large population areas of the Florida Gulf Coast have provided safe havens and shelter for those who chose to stay in place or, like those in the Tampa Hospital, must stay in place. And let's hope the post-Andrew building codes are up to the test of Irma. We can deny climate change, but in the end we cannot deny Mother Nature. All we can do now is hope, pray, and offer help for those in need.
76
Could not disagree more with that. Using the Irma that forever changed the lesser Antilles as a proxy for the garden-variety hurricane that would eventually hit Florida serves no one. There was absolutely no need to evacuate 6M people. Clear the storm surge zones (which will end up being about 1/2 of what was forecast), be sure you have back-up power for critical infrastructure and care facilities (or relocate If req'd) and advise everyone else to *shelter in place*. That would have been a much more appropriately measured response.
"Contrary to predictions, the storm is expected to move up the state’s west coast."
The Canadian model predicted the west coast initially, while the U.S and the European model showed the east coast.
What parameters were different in the Canadian model that made it anomalous, but accurate ?
The Canadian model predicted the west coast initially, while the U.S and the European model showed the east coast.
What parameters were different in the Canadian model that made it anomalous, but accurate ?
8
Looking at live footage from the Keys now, it seems like in the most vulnerable spot in Florida, hit dead on by this storm, there was practically no damage. I don't think anyone should be worried about this storm at this point, there will be heavy rain, a little flooding, and that's it. Not a monster storm at all.
3
57 years ago today. Hurricane Donna. Naples destroyed. Ironically, this contributed to the building of a great community and he growth of the area today. Many, including my relatives, used the opportunity of cheap real estate to settle in the area. Naples, if hit, will rebuild again! Let's hope they don't have to!
3
The fact is that the mathematics are very complex and simply aren't given to simple answers. Most people are given a basic education in mathematics, and have no advanced college level mathematical training. Therefore, most people are far to accustomed to the 'predictability' of simpler math problems, but predicting weather lies within the realm of 'chaos theory'...which, I would have you note, from the name alone, suggests a certain level of inherent unpredictability.
Even if we have the absolute BEST computer in the world, we still would have a certain 'cone of uncertainty'...hopefully the cone would be very narrow, but it would still be present, it would never shrink to 'zero' i.e. become 100% predictable. Essentially, we should be telling people how IMPOSSIBLE the task truly is to accurately predict the storm track ahead of time, instead of producing a somewhat false sense of confidence, but it is mostly the media that portrays this 'confidence' because scientists are universally, skeptical of predictions. Even when we love to make them.
Even if we have the absolute BEST computer in the world, we still would have a certain 'cone of uncertainty'...hopefully the cone would be very narrow, but it would still be present, it would never shrink to 'zero' i.e. become 100% predictable. Essentially, we should be telling people how IMPOSSIBLE the task truly is to accurately predict the storm track ahead of time, instead of producing a somewhat false sense of confidence, but it is mostly the media that portrays this 'confidence' because scientists are universally, skeptical of predictions. Even when we love to make them.
13
Sitting beneath the overwhelming catastrophies, is the tragedy of local, State, and Federal governments ignoring the repeated warnings of scientists, planners, environmentalists, and involved citizens about the eventuality of complete disaster due to natural events that have been occurring with regularity for as long as humans have walked the Earth. This should not be a surprise, and it's a shame that it is "news". It should be an accepted and acknowledged aspect of existence on this Earth.
8
After spending yesterday and early this morning on Facebook, Twitter and various weather sites and CNN, I'll say that hands down, The NY Times has the most comprehensive coverage of the storm.
The NY Times provides information, eyewitness accounts and perspective. This shows that social media and television, with Anderson Cooper and others in their muscle t-shirts, take a back seat to good old fashioned journalism.
Thank you. CNN goes on about being a "trusted source" for news. No, The NY Times is my trusted source for news.
The NY Times provides information, eyewitness accounts and perspective. This shows that social media and television, with Anderson Cooper and others in their muscle t-shirts, take a back seat to good old fashioned journalism.
Thank you. CNN goes on about being a "trusted source" for news. No, The NY Times is my trusted source for news.
439
Like you I have been following these events on social media and mainstream news sources. The NYT coverage has been excellent. I live in the UK but have a large extended family across the USA. I subscribe to the NYT for its great investigative journalism. NYT should be congratulated for making the storm coverage freely available.
7
Yes, I agree. Coverage. Not snippets.
2
I agree. I am sitting in a rest area south of Macon, GA, arriving from Miami yesterday. I depend on the Times to keep me updated on the storm. Thank you.
5
All our divisive rhetoric and screeching about things like walls we dont need and deporting kids to places like el salvador seems, and is , so pathetic and such a waste of time, when viewed next to the ravages of a natural disaster. Let's come together rafter this. None of us are here all that long.
318
I've got to ask: what does coming together look like? How do you come together when one side is, if not overtly, pandering to racism and bigotry? How do you come together when one side refuses to cooperate or compromise? How do you come together in the name of deporting lifelong U.S. residents in the name of "the law" that the aforementioned groups refuse to address in a comprehensive manner?
No, "coming together" is simply an impossible platitude at this point. It's going to take those already working on solving the important issues in this country to come together to do what the others have refused to do for decades.
No, "coming together" is simply an impossible platitude at this point. It's going to take those already working on solving the important issues in this country to come together to do what the others have refused to do for decades.
4
Not sure the current high levels of frustration are going to just dissipate. Stress never improves a marriage; it ends it. Not sure we're all going to come together after these stresses. If we were uniting against a common enemy, sure. But we haven't got a handy enemy we all agree on, so expect more acrimony.
2
Ain't that the truth! Humankind's real adversary (and only friend) is and always has been Mother Nature.
1
From St. John, USVI: "There have been suggestions that the government’s planning for the storm was inadequate and didn’t take into considerations of the front line responders.
One officer, who asked that his name not be used, said “”there is no plan. … There is no emergency plan in effect.”"
http://stthomassource.com/content/2017/09/09/help-arrives-for-storm-batt...
One officer, who asked that his name not be used, said “”there is no plan. … There is no emergency plan in effect.”"
http://stthomassource.com/content/2017/09/09/help-arrives-for-storm-batt...
47
Not enough attention has been focused on the US territories outside of the United States. In fact, with everything happening in Florida, Houston is receding in the background.
This is where The NY Times's resources should be focused on rather than writing articles about our dysfunctional Congress and President. I was pleased that there was an article about the "Two Houstons" yesterday. Let's not forget Harvey -- and we need to learn about what happened in the Virgin Islands, Cuba and other parts of the Caribbean whether they are part of the US or not.
This is where The NY Times's resources should be focused on rather than writing articles about our dysfunctional Congress and President. I was pleased that there was an article about the "Two Houstons" yesterday. Let's not forget Harvey -- and we need to learn about what happened in the Virgin Islands, Cuba and other parts of the Caribbean whether they are part of the US or not.
65
From a message we received today, the islands are decimated and the airport in St Thomas has been severely damaged and won't be able to handle commercial aircraft for a month or more. They need as much help as they can get from the government.
30
Nope. I absolutely want NYT to continue covering our disfunctional congress and president. NYT has a big staff; they can walk and chew gum at the same time. Thanks, NYT.
19
My heart is sick. I am so sorry this has happened to so many wonderful people. We all love the beautiful peaceful oceans, rivers, creeks, ponds, etc., until this happens and we wonder why we didn't think of these storms beforehand. I too experienced weather devastation. I pray that God will give you all peace and courage to take your next steps.
64
I pray for people in Florida and elsewhere. May God safeguard the helpless and bless those who are affected in quick recovery.
And may God give them strength and courage who are unharmed, willing to serve.
And may God give them strength and courage who are unharmed, willing to serve.
39
Since the storm is apparently already happening and has already devastated a large swathe of the Carribean, God is either impotent to stop it or entirely malevolent, at the very least uncaring. Either way, praying is unlikely to do anything. Might I suggest a more modern and practical act: minimally making a donation?
8
You should pray for the humans that have to rebuild from this storm, because God doesn't actually do anything.
5
The European models had Irma going to were it is now....the western part....had it correctly for a few days now....
239
Given how diverse the forecasts were, it was a good bet one of them would get it right or come close. Unless the European models have a longer term track record of more accurate prediction, it really means nothing that the model got this one hurricane's path right.
So what? Everybody studies the same storms to see how well predictions went. If the Europeans were always right, then we'd just go with their models every time, wouldn't we?
It's like trying to predict the stock market -- too many variables to be able to predict. The storm is going to go where the storm wants to go. We did know however, that a really big storm was going to hit Florida. The information and forecasts of the weather services are nothing short of amazing. Just think what we would have known a mere 50 years ago. We take so much for granted.
1
If there is one thing I have learnt from following this over the past few days, it is how difficult it is to track the path of a hurricane exactly. Perhaps the scientists working on climate change should instead focus on improving the accuracy of hurricane forecasts.
8
Instead? "Working on" climate change? Researchers work to understand what is happening in nature. The same scientists who work to understand the forces that create weather make discoveries related to how the climate is changing.
Perhaps we need more people willing to devote the time and effort needed to become scientists, fewer attacks on them as "elite," and more funding so as not to block promising directions of discovery.
Perhaps we need more people willing to devote the time and effort needed to become scientists, fewer attacks on them as "elite," and more funding so as not to block promising directions of discovery.
614
Tracking the path of a hurricane is a pretty exact science. Forecastingthe path it will take in the future is much more difficult and always will be. There are so many variables and tiny changes can make huge differences in trajectory (think chaos theory).
55
Hurricanes occur within the context created by climate change. You will never "improve the accuracy" of hurricane prediction, or weather prediction generally, without understanding the the changes we are causing in the dynamics and energetics of the ocean-atmosphere system.
Also, the European model (ECMWF) is really quite good and has been out-performign the US model (GFS) for some years now. The predictions for Irma have been both very good and very stable for some days. If by "exact" you are asking for within 10s of kilometers many days out, you will *never* get that.
Weather prediction is a complex problem in chaotic fluid dynamics. The accuracy you want is not mathematically possible. In fact, given that climate is an "average" of weather, climate prediction is a good bit easier (though still wicked hard) than weather prediction. The argument, "you can't predict the weather next week, how can you predict the climate next century" completely misunderstands the nature of the related but different problems of weather and climate modeling.
Also, the European model (ECMWF) is really quite good and has been out-performign the US model (GFS) for some years now. The predictions for Irma have been both very good and very stable for some days. If by "exact" you are asking for within 10s of kilometers many days out, you will *never* get that.
Weather prediction is a complex problem in chaotic fluid dynamics. The accuracy you want is not mathematically possible. In fact, given that climate is an "average" of weather, climate prediction is a good bit easier (though still wicked hard) than weather prediction. The argument, "you can't predict the weather next week, how can you predict the climate next century" completely misunderstands the nature of the related but different problems of weather and climate modeling.
111
I'm not a cartographer, but based on my map, it looks like if it hits St. Pete's, it's totally going to hit Tampa.
116
I've always heard the area called "Tampa-St. Pete." So I agree that Tampa could be impacted, too. I'll have to look at a map.
If Tampa and St. Pete are like Manhattan and Brooklyn, I could definitely see that there could be impact in Tampa.
Hopefully nothing will happen at all...
If Tampa and St. Pete are like Manhattan and Brooklyn, I could definitely see that there could be impact in Tampa.
Hopefully nothing will happen at all...
12
It's an all or nothing mentality. It's like "They are getting 130 m.p.h. winds, but we are only getting 120 m.p.h. winds so we're perfectly safe because the worst part didn't hit us." I think people consider it like a tornado where the path of destruction might only be 1/2 mile wide and people just beyond that path are not affected.
4
@pegolas
Good point. I read it as the best way of saying "Not hitting Tampa". Up next, Pensacola. Stay tuned.
Good point. I read it as the best way of saying "Not hitting Tampa". Up next, Pensacola. Stay tuned.
1