Russia and Red China created this Monster after WW2. Now they need to defang it. NK's a threat to the US now. Tomorrow it could be Beijing or Vladivostok. In the worst case scenario, NK nukes a dozen US cities and a US CIC decides after letting Red China and Russia fight proxy wars against the US for decades ... the Red Chinese and Russians won't be allowed to sit this one out.
1
Excellent argument for strategic containment.
3
Good thing we started an all-out war in Iraq to get WMDs that were unlikely to hurt us if they existed, which they apparently didn't, as a pretext for safe-guarding cheap access to the fossil fuels destroying the global environment. Meanwhile, at the same time, we ignored an America-hating, deranged Orwellian tyrant building Hydrogen bombs & the missiles to actually deliver them to the U.S. in a matter of minutes. Wise move.
11
He has another impending famine that he will need to assuage or he may find himself in danger of his own people making regime change. He better start thinking about his options soon.
2
Mr Stephens just don't understand why a madman like Kim Jong-un is allowed to exist is because of the United states. The United states and South Korea has been planning to take over North Korea since the end of the last Korean war. In China, its people clinged onto Mao despite its failed domestic policies for the very same reason until Nixon normalized relations with China. The US is too little and too late in terms of what kind of leverage to North Korea. Right before Bush had became president, I am sure that North Korea would've been content having US troops in South Korea and have some kind of peace treaty. Now this strongman is running the country and having nukes capable of sending to the US, the only way that North Korea would disarm is if the US would leave South Korea altogether.
The scariest thing is that this may be more about Kim and Trump and their emotional immaturity and grandiosity than about North and South Korea and the USA.
Saul Bellow once said something like: Enough power allows a person's most destructive fantasies to be enacted. We now have two narrow and easily offended persons with considerable power, each in their solipsistic world, who could act out an a worldwide scale.
Saul Bellow once said something like: Enough power allows a person's most destructive fantasies to be enacted. We now have two narrow and easily offended persons with considerable power, each in their solipsistic world, who could act out an a worldwide scale.
3
Everything is about balance, art of Tyranny, American muscle show whatever, if something crosses the limit. Then the presumption fails and we see unexpected results.
US did not wanted nuclear NK but now NK is a nuclear country. Why ? Because US did not took proper action in time.
This way sooner or later tomorrow Iran will also be a Nuclear country.
There is more possibility that South Korea, Japan will also be a Nuclear country within 5 yrs, So will be Saudi if Iran tests one nuclear arsenal.
Now US can not take military action against NK.
It seems like now is the best time for trade war,
It might be little risky for US economy but the risk is worthy than military action.
US did not wanted nuclear NK but now NK is a nuclear country. Why ? Because US did not took proper action in time.
This way sooner or later tomorrow Iran will also be a Nuclear country.
There is more possibility that South Korea, Japan will also be a Nuclear country within 5 yrs, So will be Saudi if Iran tests one nuclear arsenal.
Now US can not take military action against NK.
It seems like now is the best time for trade war,
It might be little risky for US economy but the risk is worthy than military action.
This essay seems spot-on. Thank you.
I don't understand the hubub over Kim's weapons program. Russia and the U.S. has thousands of nukes and only America has ever used them on civilians. There are several nation-states with nuclear weapons, so what's one more? Is it becase the Kim family of Korea doesn't like America that's causing all the hysteria? We should just work on around anti-missile program and let him build his weapons. He isn't going to stop with all the sanctions in the world. He knows what happens if he strikes the US. M.A.D. mutually assured destruction, the same policy we had to the now Trump-friendly Russia during the Cold War.
2
The USA should turn his tyranny and destabilizing tactics into a job creation windfall .
First, place 250,000 more soldiers, sailors, and airmen in Korea along with modern tactical weapons, cyber warfare servers, and anti misfile defense.
Get in his face.
With a condition, South Korea and Japan have to create duplicates of key industries tim the USA .
For safe keeping.
This will create 250,000 high wage jobs in states like CT, far from the danger. One to one match.
The USA is in the protection business, but at a cost,
First, place 250,000 more soldiers, sailors, and airmen in Korea along with modern tactical weapons, cyber warfare servers, and anti misfile defense.
Get in his face.
With a condition, South Korea and Japan have to create duplicates of key industries tim the USA .
For safe keeping.
This will create 250,000 high wage jobs in states like CT, far from the danger. One to one match.
The USA is in the protection business, but at a cost,
S.K., Japan and the U.S. have a vital interest in denuclearizing N.K.; Beijing and Moscow have a vital interest in preventing the democratization of N.K.
So I propose the following compromise:
1. China and Russia join the embargo on N.K.
2. If the N.K. regime collapses, the five parties occupy N.K. and impose fifty years' rule by a committee of five N.K. technocrats, one appointed by China, one by Russia, one by S.K., one by the U.S., and one approved by all.
3. During this time, N.K. would be demilitarized and non-aligned. The committee of technocrats would have a mandate to develop N.K. with the ultimate goal of catching up to S.K.
4. The U.S., Japan, S.K. and China would provide a financial aid package to N.K., especially in the near-term.
5. After fifty years, N.K. would choose by referendum either to reunify with S.K. or to be an independent, sovereign country.
So I propose the following compromise:
1. China and Russia join the embargo on N.K.
2. If the N.K. regime collapses, the five parties occupy N.K. and impose fifty years' rule by a committee of five N.K. technocrats, one appointed by China, one by Russia, one by S.K., one by the U.S., and one approved by all.
3. During this time, N.K. would be demilitarized and non-aligned. The committee of technocrats would have a mandate to develop N.K. with the ultimate goal of catching up to S.K.
4. The U.S., Japan, S.K. and China would provide a financial aid package to N.K., especially in the near-term.
5. After fifty years, N.K. would choose by referendum either to reunify with S.K. or to be an independent, sovereign country.
Can't we just bring a bunch of submarines near the North Korean coastline and launch a barrage of nuclear missiles at all the key targets and knock em out before they knew what hit them?
3
Trump needs to get on Air Force One and fly to South Korea. From Seoul he can meet with Un and present him with a complimentary set of Trump golf clubs, some of those nice long ties and a box of Blue Rays. Just start with some small gesture that at least seems not belligerent.
1
This quasi-open letter to Mr. Kim has some faults. First, there is the matter of hearsay as regards his severity when it comes to purges. That would be none of anyone's business except his, not that he would have it otherwise, regardless of its veracity. Secondly, the young American likely died of shock at being apprehended for misbehaving. The group with which he was traveling in North Korea had a reputation for rowdiness and bad acting. Much of what is alleged is not without some factual foundation...absolutism usually has its brutal aspects. Why America is the target of the nuclear bluster is obvious as well...the lesson of conqueror history subjected to a retardant function is the object lesson. Their ally won't be conquered either. What has been ostensibly overlooked is the double standard in another part of the world which has allowed the U.S. to breach the sovereignty of other nations and effect "regime change" to the detriment of the populace in a very violent way. So much for the assertion of exclusivity of "crazy" as regards the DPRK, not to mention other types of unwarranted intrusions in the lives of other people. Leveling Seoul is neither an option nor a desire for NK. What would be gained? Farm land? An absurdity carried to the point of insolence and unbridled arrogance such as was exhibited by Hitler in WWII is on full display these days, and not by a so-called "apprentice"; others fail to mention the possibility of world-wide nuclear disarmament.
It's amazing to me how frequently Times coverage of N Korea ignores Japan. Japan is the 800 lb gorilla in the room. Google "Sea of Japan + East Sea" to see how much these nations love one another.
Great beginning about a young tyran's point of view and prospect. It enlights on so many points, for now and for History
Sadam Hussein got hanged, Ghadaffi got lynched. No nukes or hidden war chemicals were found in Irak. Ghadaffi ended his A-bomb project then he was overthrown by the help of the US and others. I don´t think Kim jung un will take a chance to get the same treatment. The nuke program in North Korea I think is as Kim jung un sees it his only chance to stay in power. Hopefully he is not so stupid that he and his generals don´t see that if they would attack another state with nuclear weapons it will be a suicide and the end of North Korea and the deaths of maybe millions. On the other side in the US there is a President who is totally unpredictable in his actions. If a military action were a solution it should have been taken a long time ago. And I don´t think more sanctions will help either. Like Putin said they would rather eat grass then give up their nuclear program. So how to solve the situation ? Well that´s the million dollar question, when you have two parts painted in in their respective corners.
1
So where is the ultrasonic-emitting satellite that when aimed at the North Korean nuclear test site in the middle of a nuclear explosion, can amplify the underground shock waves to collapse the mountain above it ?
It seems that Mr. Stephens and a lot of other reasonably intelligent people think that if North Korea tried to use nuclear blackmail to try to persuade us to abandon South Korea, it would work, that we simply will not risk putting American cities in harms way to save South Korea from a North Korean takeover. So given that, it seems to me that the only reasonable and honorable course is for the Trump Administration to tell North Korea and China that if NK does not rid itself of its nuclear weapons and China doesn't guarantee that it has done it, we will arm South Korea with nukes and then tell China and the two Koreas that we will not use nukes on NK unless it threatens or attacks us with them, and that if NK attacks SK, it will be up to SK to use the weapons we have given them to defend itself. That should persuade NK that trying to blackmail us would be a waste of time, and trying to blackmail SK would probably result in NK's destruction. It would also relieve us of the awful obligation to kill millions of North Koreans in order to try to save millions of South Koreans. If it needs to be done. let the South Koreans do it.
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6
The status quo, not quid pro quid (Something for Something), but quid pro quo (Something for Nothing), as regards the hegemony of the U.S. and other nations with regard to Nuclear weapons. Some other nations register complaints that the Nuclear non-proliferation treaty is not being observed by all nations, particularly one which has them, in the middle east, but refuses to sign, or, indeed, even acknowledge them. That's blackmail. The DPRK is making a demonstrative complaint by developing these potential weapons. It was an "awful obligation" seemingly, when the U.S. with MacArthur in charge of the military in the far east, decided that it might be within its grasp to conquer not only North Korea, but also China, the two under the direction of both Mao and Stalin at the time. Hundreds of thousands were killed. Why should the U.S. bother to do it again? The so-called "despot" has affirmed publicly that if all nations possessing nuclear arms would approach the disarmament table, the DPRK would gladly join them. The world in many areas is being held hostage by this nuclear gambit. Small wonder, given their experience, that the North Koreans refuse to be held in thrall to this intrusive exceptionalism.
Mr. Stephens "They" say you know something about the inner workings of the North Korean leadership and their motivations. BTW, who is "they"? It's incredible how much mileage journalists can get by riding an untested and unquestioned narrative about another state and how little serious investigative work they have to do as a result.
And what a remarkable comment to make that North Korea, or anyone else for that matter, might be conspiring to drive the U.S. out of Korea and Northeast Asia. Who drove the U.S. in, in the first place and by what logic is the U.S. "entitled" to remain? Do you ever reread your essays and wonder, "how did I take these assumptions for granted?"
And what a remarkable comment to make that North Korea, or anyone else for that matter, might be conspiring to drive the U.S. out of Korea and Northeast Asia. Who drove the U.S. in, in the first place and by what logic is the U.S. "entitled" to remain? Do you ever reread your essays and wonder, "how did I take these assumptions for granted?"
1
Interesting piece, with interesting points - "Besides, you (Kim Jong-un) have ears." But his ears, and evidently his mind, are not sufficiently sized to take a really good look at his country and at the world around it.
Kim Jong-un could, if he had any imagination (and any ethics), find a course that would make his country healthy and prosperous. Not easy, but possible. Too bad he is merely a despot.
Kim Jong-un could, if he had any imagination (and any ethics), find a course that would make his country healthy and prosperous. Not easy, but possible. Too bad he is merely a despot.
2
The problem in Korea, since 1950, has been China. They continue to support North Korea hoping that the US will leave and lose influence in Asia. Now, Trump's beligerent threats and apparent disregard for the lives of people of South Korea and Japan is weakening our alliances there.
So, we should be leading an international effort to condem and sanction China every time Kim Jung-Un does something aggressive. Unfortunately, Trump's remarks keep making China look like the only source of regional stability.
Of course, the current situation is a win-win-win from the perspectives of the major players: Kim Jung-Un keeps China happy, China gains leverage over the US in Asia, and Trump shows his supporters how much tougher he is than Obama (while also distracting them from his policy failures).
So, we should be leading an international effort to condem and sanction China every time Kim Jung-Un does something aggressive. Unfortunately, Trump's remarks keep making China look like the only source of regional stability.
Of course, the current situation is a win-win-win from the perspectives of the major players: Kim Jung-Un keeps China happy, China gains leverage over the US in Asia, and Trump shows his supporters how much tougher he is than Obama (while also distracting them from his policy failures).
2
"Whoever is helping you make such astonishing progress in your missile and nuclear programs clearly wants to use you to change the game, too."
Another possibility is that someone has a cooperative agreement with NK either to finance the research and development of nuclear weapons and missile technology or to provide the scientists, engineers, and technicians to advance these weapons and delivery programs. That financing or supply of expertise would be provided with the understanding that the sponsor would in exchange receive the knowledge and experience generated.
It is not difficult to imagine Iran as that sponsor. By treaty it is prohibited from further weapons research and may become barred from further missile development, but that doesn't prevent it from sending its scientists to NK to continue their research while advising NK. It would be an arrangement not that different from the ones the notorious A. Q. Khan of Pakistan made with countries wanting to develop nuclear weapons.
The question is, does anyone know what those thought to be unemployed Iranian scientists are doing these days or where they might be spending their time? After all, Iran is supposed to have ceased their domestic nuclear weapons programs.
Another possibility is that someone has a cooperative agreement with NK either to finance the research and development of nuclear weapons and missile technology or to provide the scientists, engineers, and technicians to advance these weapons and delivery programs. That financing or supply of expertise would be provided with the understanding that the sponsor would in exchange receive the knowledge and experience generated.
It is not difficult to imagine Iran as that sponsor. By treaty it is prohibited from further weapons research and may become barred from further missile development, but that doesn't prevent it from sending its scientists to NK to continue their research while advising NK. It would be an arrangement not that different from the ones the notorious A. Q. Khan of Pakistan made with countries wanting to develop nuclear weapons.
The question is, does anyone know what those thought to be unemployed Iranian scientists are doing these days or where they might be spending their time? After all, Iran is supposed to have ceased their domestic nuclear weapons programs.
You raise an interesting point. Is China or Russia behind the rapid pace of weapons technology development in North Korea for their own selfish purpose? I've lived long enough to remember when we feared an atomic war with the Soviets, and who would deny that the world has always been a dangerous place. But I view developments in North Korea as particularly ominous. Even an innocent mistake at this point could have catastrophic consequences that spread well beyond the Korean peninsula. When you couple the North Korea issue with the fact that a large percentage of the US population loves Donald Trump it's very hard to have an optimistic view of the future of humanity....
1
Bret,, have you ever been to North Korea? Are you a paid diplomat, who speaks Korean and knows the entire history? Have you, as a mere journalist, read deeply on North Korea, and understand geography and history and current events including climate change, as it affects North and Sourth Korea? il politics and the Koreas? I am GUESSING. that the answer to ALL these questions is NO, no knowledge, no language, no experience, no nothing. Just as in Climate Change, why should we care what you say, if you were NOT printed on the NYT oped, which is A REAL mitzvah.
2
srry wrong use of mitzvah. I man to refer to a a bad deed. I can't figure out the hebrew for bad deed..Help?
The threat from North Korea does not give South Korea the right to rip us off economically.
If South Korea refuses to renegotiate the one sided trade agreement then the President is absolutely justified in ending that agreement.
In fact, he is morally obligated to do so.
If South Korea decides that defense and trade are linked and that it no longer wishes to be an ally of the United States and demands that we withdraw our forces that is their privilege.
The same logic applies to the NATO countries. Americans are tired of being ripped off by their so called allies.
If South Korea refuses to renegotiate the one sided trade agreement then the President is absolutely justified in ending that agreement.
In fact, he is morally obligated to do so.
If South Korea decides that defense and trade are linked and that it no longer wishes to be an ally of the United States and demands that we withdraw our forces that is their privilege.
The same logic applies to the NATO countries. Americans are tired of being ripped off by their so called allies.
2
North Korea is a small country and small countries cannot exchange nuclear weapons with a continental sized country for very long before it's been totally destroyed several times over. If it uses such weapons against South Korea the damage will spill over into North Korea, so it will not use them against the South unless it fears it's about to be destroyed. So why does it want weapons like these? To deter the U.S. from attacking and possibly to intimidate the U.S. with an unacceptable threat to use as leverage in it's dealings with the U.S. These scenarios are plausible, especially with a President who is so ignorant of history as it Trump, but I doubt much of it.
I think that Kim is simply using the weapons of mass destruction strategy of deterring possible attempts by the U.S. et al to deprive him of his power. All the other possibilities rely upon leadership in the U.S. that has not had knowledge of previous attempts to avoid war and to deal with authoritarian leaders of totalitarian countries. The U.S. has had that experience and as much as it might want to avoid war, it knows that when a dictator thinks that he/she can act with impunity, war becomes inevitable.
I think that Kim is simply using the weapons of mass destruction strategy of deterring possible attempts by the U.S. et al to deprive him of his power. All the other possibilities rely upon leadership in the U.S. that has not had knowledge of previous attempts to avoid war and to deal with authoritarian leaders of totalitarian countries. The U.S. has had that experience and as much as it might want to avoid war, it knows that when a dictator thinks that he/she can act with impunity, war becomes inevitable.
3
A Times approved comment?
The premise is Kim is rational because, well, casual observer has with deductive logic figured it all out and knows Kim's motives and what the future holds. Quite a gift. Nuance free. Heheheh.
And exactly what are rounds of nuclear exchanges based on history? Do tell.
Kim is not the only crazy.
The premise is Kim is rational because, well, casual observer has with deductive logic figured it all out and knows Kim's motives and what the future holds. Quite a gift. Nuance free. Heheheh.
And exactly what are rounds of nuclear exchanges based on history? Do tell.
Kim is not the only crazy.
1
Japan and South Korea may already be doubting America will have their backs if US cities are vulnerable to North Korean ICBMs. So Japan and South Korea may decide they need their own nuclear deterrent. That prospect may induce China to exert more pressure on North Korea.
1
Thank you Mr. Stephens. You're the first one to correctly describe the likely motivations behind Mr. Kim's strategy. You are right about the survival motive and his methods to ensure his survival. Equally important is that you understand that Kim is not testing China's patience but that they are working hand-in-glove to push the U.S off the Korean peninsula. This is very important because everyone else in the commentariat thinks that the China will tire of Kim's antics and help to squeeze him. Quite the contrary. The Chinese are backing Kim while he does their front-line dirty work for them. That's why China sticks by North Korea. Kim's pressure on the U.S. and South Korea - aided by our president's bumbling - has resulted in the opening of a split between the U.S and South Korea. This is evidence that the Kim - China strategy is working. One can imagine what happens if the U.S. does back away from North Korea. Beijing will celebrate.
17
A solution HAD sooner is better than later.
If a LATER solution is destructive it will be MUCH MUCH less now.
AMERICANS have all been DUPED - it is really BEIJING after all that is running the show.
If a LATER solution is destructive it will be MUCH MUCH less now.
AMERICANS have all been DUPED - it is really BEIJING after all that is running the show.
2
Sanctions, troop placement, and constant war games near NK's seas is more than provocative, to say nothing of America's role in creating the two Koreas in the first place. How about Americans react in a similar situation?
Maybe Kim wouldn't be able keep up his constant warmongering if American actions and rhetoric didn't justify it to his people. Try questioning yourself sometime.
Maybe Kim wouldn't be able keep up his constant warmongering if American actions and rhetoric didn't justify it to his people. Try questioning yourself sometime.
2
I, too, think it is likely that Kim Jong-un's regime has had aid in developing their H- bomb so rapidly. Shouldn't our intelligence services try to identify the source of this help? Isn't this friend of our enemy, our enemy as well?
1
I am amazed that the Times sells this article as "opinion". I believe it should create a new category "hate mongering" for this kind of articles.
Unlike the article suggests, Kim is not seeking "an American retreat from Northeast Asia". He only wants an end to the yearly exercises, where the US simulates invasions in North Korea and killing of its leadership. And despite Washington's claims that it has "the right" to behave as boorish as it wants I believe he is right in that point.
Unlike the article suggests, Kim is not seeking "an American retreat from Northeast Asia". He only wants an end to the yearly exercises, where the US simulates invasions in North Korea and killing of its leadership. And despite Washington's claims that it has "the right" to behave as boorish as it wants I believe he is right in that point.
3
A reasonable picture of a jester owning the circus, kept in play by selfish interests of Russian and Chinese dictatorships conflicted with the constant abuse of human rights of their own, intent in preventing the United States from coming too close to their borders, and oligarchic reigns, so to avoid tempting a revolt to demand needed changes, the return of some dignity, and freedom, and justice to its majority (stupidly drowning their huge potential for greatness). And North Korea's little clown seems their ticket to keep safe distance from having to be accountable to their own people. Yes, Trump, dumb and dumber as time goes by, seems willing to play their game, to our embarrassment; this is a losing proposition. The best we can do is ignore Kim jung-il 's provocateur-in-residence's nonsense. If Russia and China are intent to confer North Korea the title of nuclear nation, there isn't much we can do, a fait accompli sort of thing we humans seem to be intent in repeating...so to assure our mutual self-destruction. Who said stupidity is in short supply?
2
Brilliant, bold, right:
[T]he same constant aim: to rule for life and die comfortably in your bed.
Tyranny is a craft, the foremost requirement of which is to instill the appropriate sense of dread and awe. You — the fat kid with the boarding-school education and the basketball mania — had no chance of living without immediately demonstrating a relish for killing. Political murder in regimes like yours is always performance art.
Another lesson for tyrants: You do not subjugate a people by taking everything from them. You subjugate them by giving them something they know you can take away. Desperate people aren’t always obedient. Dependent people usually are.
That requires changing the game in East Asia by nudging America out. Whoever is helping you make such astonishing progress in your missile and nuclear programs clearly wants to use you to change the game, too.
Drive every wedge you can between Washington and Seoul. Some you get for free: Who else but Donald Trump would think to start a trade war with Seoul in the midst of a nuclear crisis with Pyongyang?
Even in this administration, nobody knows how to do “crazy” the way you do.
The whip hand in this crisis is yours.
[T]he same constant aim: to rule for life and die comfortably in your bed.
Tyranny is a craft, the foremost requirement of which is to instill the appropriate sense of dread and awe. You — the fat kid with the boarding-school education and the basketball mania — had no chance of living without immediately demonstrating a relish for killing. Political murder in regimes like yours is always performance art.
Another lesson for tyrants: You do not subjugate a people by taking everything from them. You subjugate them by giving them something they know you can take away. Desperate people aren’t always obedient. Dependent people usually are.
That requires changing the game in East Asia by nudging America out. Whoever is helping you make such astonishing progress in your missile and nuclear programs clearly wants to use you to change the game, too.
Drive every wedge you can between Washington and Seoul. Some you get for free: Who else but Donald Trump would think to start a trade war with Seoul in the midst of a nuclear crisis with Pyongyang?
Even in this administration, nobody knows how to do “crazy” the way you do.
The whip hand in this crisis is yours.
In case of war, Kim will take the first plane leaving for Beijing and live happily forever after in Pol Pots mansion that Xi Ji Ping has waiting for him. China and or Russia are the brains behind this crisis. To hope they will help diffuse it is absurd.
2
Let us not forget Kim Jong Nam, his older brother, who also had to be disposed of, to eliminate any possibility of another family member usurping power. To be a good tyrant, you also have to be willing to kill anyone close to you.
Scares me and nothing scares me
2
If reports are to be trusted and his nucelar-tipped ICBMs are not ready yet, Kim's life insurance up to the very present day still consists of his artillery menacing to level Seoul.
If this is the case, time migt be of essence, to end the appeasement and go down on the NK regime. First give him an short-ranged and tough ultimatum, then prepare Seoul people for taking a nice weekend out in the southern areas during the very exact same day (or maybe better a prolongued weekend), and then play it as JFK did in 1962: Let Kim (and his two supporters in Moscow and Beijing) know, that either he immediately complies non less than 100,0% with all UN resolutions or all his war-toys will be gone in 48hours. If he blinks, good. If not, also.
It is time to seize this (probably) final opportunity to prevent this little uggly murderer from taking us hostage. God bless America.
If this is the case, time migt be of essence, to end the appeasement and go down on the NK regime. First give him an short-ranged and tough ultimatum, then prepare Seoul people for taking a nice weekend out in the southern areas during the very exact same day (or maybe better a prolongued weekend), and then play it as JFK did in 1962: Let Kim (and his two supporters in Moscow and Beijing) know, that either he immediately complies non less than 100,0% with all UN resolutions or all his war-toys will be gone in 48hours. If he blinks, good. If not, also.
It is time to seize this (probably) final opportunity to prevent this little uggly murderer from taking us hostage. God bless America.
1
The timing could not be worse. Potentially, we may be on the verge of a nuclear was happening and the USA has the worst leadership possible. Trump. Imagine Bozo the Clown being president when Japan attacked Pearly Harbor.
1
This is a brilliantly written op/ed. I don't claim to know everything there is to know about North Korea and China's relationship, but I do know what I saw on the news the other day: A clip of Putin basically saying Russia needs to help find a "diplomatic solution" to the nuclear threats Pyongyang is making. He said the North Koreas would "rather eat grass" than abandon their nuclear weapons. Well, so would Trump! But the difference is (and no, I am NOT a Trump supporter), America is not shooting missiles at Pyongyang, or anywhere near there. It's scary, though, to think about the idiocy of Trump during this kind of crisis. The part where Stephens says "The man's a gift" to Kim Jong-un is perfectly stated. Trump is a missile himself, like many idiotic and unseasoned American politicians. The difference? He has his fat fingers right on our nuclear codes. Can we trust a man who has shown he will lie to get what he wants, whose own son-in-law and administration officials had meetings with the Russians during the election, who will shut down the government to build a 2,000-mile wall (or try to), who will allow for the deportation of hundreds of thousands of children born to immigrants, who will try to stop Obamacare completely and claim healthcare costs just $12 a year? We can't trust Trump any more than we can trust Kim. They are both trigger-happy tyrants. The only difference is that in North Korea, that's what it's called. Here in America, we still call that democracy.
2
This is another case of what Churchill would have described as "jaw-jaw or war-war". As with Nazi Germany, the time for jaw-jaw has passed. The world has been talking for over two decades, during which North Korea went from being an obnoxious curiosity to a clear and present danger.
This is a rogue state, governed by a Don Corleone type family, which, like any mob, rules through fear, brutality, and extortion. Just as no one would dream of letting the Mob get hold of a nuke, because all it would do would endlessly extort,the idea to let Kim obtain a capability to launch a nuke is crazy.
If the only way to prevent this is to utterly destroy Pyonyang, with a combination of EMP, neutron, bunker busters and gas bombs, so be it. There are no innocents in Pyongyang, it is a closed city, only party members may live there. This means that everyone who lives there, is either a criminal guilty of heinous crimes against humanity, or a collaborator. True there are children there, but all I can say is tough nookies. I put the life of a child in one of the regime's gulag camps above that of a child of a criminal, and if one has to die to free the other, so be it. It's either destroy Kim, or find ourselves paying ever increasing amounts of danegeld to a voracious vicious criminal whose appetite is a bottomless pit.
This is a rogue state, governed by a Don Corleone type family, which, like any mob, rules through fear, brutality, and extortion. Just as no one would dream of letting the Mob get hold of a nuke, because all it would do would endlessly extort,the idea to let Kim obtain a capability to launch a nuke is crazy.
If the only way to prevent this is to utterly destroy Pyonyang, with a combination of EMP, neutron, bunker busters and gas bombs, so be it. There are no innocents in Pyongyang, it is a closed city, only party members may live there. This means that everyone who lives there, is either a criminal guilty of heinous crimes against humanity, or a collaborator. True there are children there, but all I can say is tough nookies. I put the life of a child in one of the regime's gulag camps above that of a child of a criminal, and if one has to die to free the other, so be it. It's either destroy Kim, or find ourselves paying ever increasing amounts of danegeld to a voracious vicious criminal whose appetite is a bottomless pit.
As usual the majority of commenters, when faced with the issue of a criminal gang nut having the capacity to annihilate their home of 320.000,000 or so, want to talk about how the duly elected president of their country is like The criminal gang leader.
If these commenters fairly represent America, America deserves Trump.And Kim. They are as narcisstic,,uninformed, and as in love with lies as any Trump supporter. They cannot grasp the simple concept of nuclear annihilation Because....Trump! Almost every comment has a flat out lie and a stunning obliviousness to little things like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Phillipines, Vietnam, etc etc etc.
If these commenters fairly represent America, America deserves Trump.And Kim. They are as narcisstic,,uninformed, and as in love with lies as any Trump supporter. They cannot grasp the simple concept of nuclear annihilation Because....Trump! Almost every comment has a flat out lie and a stunning obliviousness to little things like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Phillipines, Vietnam, etc etc etc.
2
Look out Brooks. You have some competition in the flyweight category.
2
One possible solution would be moving U.S. armed forces from South Korea and Japan to Taiwan: https://garygindler.wordpress.com/2017/09/06/fat-kim-threatens-trump-again/
nota bene: Look who's talking.
*We* gave the madman in chief the nuclear codes!
*We* gave the madman in chief the nuclear codes!
1
JU Kim probably read The Prince by Machiavelli who adviced that if you cant make your subjects love you, make them fear you - otherwise you're history!
He's a cruel tyrant, doing what he has to do to stay alive. But he is different than other cruel despots, such as Saddam, Assad or Gaddafi because he has the H bomb!
The question is whether the US can get rid of him by force without killing millions of our allies. And if that can be done, given our track record on regime changes, probably another Kim worst than this one will be in power and not in love with the US. A peaceful solution, like the reunification of Korea in 50 years timeframe under 2 separate entities, modelled after Hongkong may be the best way out.
He's a cruel tyrant, doing what he has to do to stay alive. But he is different than other cruel despots, such as Saddam, Assad or Gaddafi because he has the H bomb!
The question is whether the US can get rid of him by force without killing millions of our allies. And if that can be done, given our track record on regime changes, probably another Kim worst than this one will be in power and not in love with the US. A peaceful solution, like the reunification of Korea in 50 years timeframe under 2 separate entities, modelled after Hongkong may be the best way out.
It’s about time we started recognizing that Kim Jong-un’s murderous instinct for self-preservation has made him an extremely shrewd and effective long-term strategist — constantly facing the fatal risk of being deposed by his own generals, not to mention American attack, seems to have powerfully focused his intellect. On the other hand, instead of crazy-like-a-fox Kim, we have just plain crazy Donnie, who seems to believe that sitting in his newly gilded White House sending out random 140 character messages over the internet represents strategic leadership. North Korea has already clearly declared how it intends to win this game of nuclear chicken, by realistically threatening to explode a hydrogen bomb about 200 miles in the atmosphere above the US— no problems with re-entry or precise targeting — generating an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) that will knock out our satellites, render our power grids inoperable for months and destroy most of our key communications and electronic banking infrastructure, as well as trashing most personal electronic devices (no more tweets). Kim will simply tell our clueless president and his circle of enablers/baby-sitters to either give North Korea what it wants — regime stability and economic aid — or give up his tweets, along with the American and global economies.
3
Belarus, Cuba, Iran, Burma, North Korea and Zimbabwe are all listed by the U.S. as communist countries today. Making Kim look bad is fine for an American audience, except for one fact. There is not much really known about Kim Jong Un. We have never interviewed him. We basically know nothing about him. It's all heresy including his supposed merciless killings. Besides, when you look at the world stage, North Korea has as much history on the planet as any other country. Let them be.
This is a gross oversimplification. There are lots of solutions to the problem. the question is more about why we have chosen the present path. You can't blame Trump for that. No, this ongoing problem lies firmly within the Washington establishment.
11
I think Russia and China are enjoying the spectacle of Kim Jong-un constantly goading Trump -- and proving that his bellicose bluster is so much hot air. Unfortunately for us, Trump's -- or rather Bannon's -- America first policy has made our country America Last. Trump has antagonized most of our traditional allies and we're in this alone. No good will come of it.
4
I'm more concerned with the tyrant we have in the Oval Office. So far what has he given, well nothing. He has so far just fed his base with racist nonsense to keep them on board. If he fails to deliver jobs that pay a living wage and health care, he too wil have to resort to violent threats. Stay tuned.
1
Given the number of tyrants who wind up hanging upside down at a gas station or hiding in a 'spider hole' or dying hut in a jungle, Kin Jong-un shouldn't be too confident. When nobody is safe, somebody will act to save themselves.
1
Several of our regimes, Obama, Bush, tried to move to the East. Here China and perhaps Russia combined are pushing a bold move to tell us, don't do it, leave. And after watching the self proclaimed dealmaker posture and pulsate, I think they will succeed. The Donald will deal, and leave.
My son is engaged to a South Korean girl. He recently met her parents in Toronto. They both have PHD degrees. I asked him about he NK/SK issue. He sent a message:
"South Korea? I think they are little more concerned about Trump attacking the north, than the north attacking the south. Overall they think the north is all propaganda, but still a concern. Ann's dad thinks South Korea will be sacrificed and destroyed sooner or later."
A friend and I worry about two bloviating bullies, backing each other into a corner, and without concern for humanity, start to throw punches or shoot missies to save face???
"South Korea? I think they are little more concerned about Trump attacking the north, than the north attacking the south. Overall they think the north is all propaganda, but still a concern. Ann's dad thinks South Korea will be sacrificed and destroyed sooner or later."
A friend and I worry about two bloviating bullies, backing each other into a corner, and without concern for humanity, start to throw punches or shoot missies to save face???
4
Bret Stephens writes: ". They say you fed your uncle to dogs after you had him arrested in full public view. They say you had your armed forces minister dispatched with an antiaircraft gun, to obliterate every trace of him from the face of the earth. They say you executed your deputy premier for education for slouching."
Who is "they"? What is the source for this? We know that Kim is brutal, but did he actually do this, or is it simply American propaganda? Given Stephens' easy acceptance of climate change-denialism, it is not at all clear how truthful he is on this subject, or how much truth there is in the claims.
Who is "they"? What is the source for this? We know that Kim is brutal, but did he actually do this, or is it simply American propaganda? Given Stephens' easy acceptance of climate change-denialism, it is not at all clear how truthful he is on this subject, or how much truth there is in the claims.
2
The only viable option we have at this point is to do everything possible to ensure we have and continually develop overt and covert means to retard further Nuclear ICBM capability deployment by NK and to defend against any 1st strike attempt by NK. We need to increase the urgency and investment necessary to deploy technology for cyber and other weapons that could damage or degrade NK's current and future nuclear weapons delivery capabilities.
Advanced Missile defense systems must be deployed to the maximum extent possible in South Korea and Japan and economic sanctions should continue.
There isn't a clean resolution to Kim's noxious act. Be prepared, make sure we have the best capability to fend off any potential 1st strike by NK, commit to constantly working on ways to degrade and sabotage his nuke/ICBM capabilities and then wait to see if he really is crazy enough to launch a 1st strike and bring annihilation on him and his entire country.
Advanced Missile defense systems must be deployed to the maximum extent possible in South Korea and Japan and economic sanctions should continue.
There isn't a clean resolution to Kim's noxious act. Be prepared, make sure we have the best capability to fend off any potential 1st strike by NK, commit to constantly working on ways to degrade and sabotage his nuke/ICBM capabilities and then wait to see if he really is crazy enough to launch a 1st strike and bring annihilation on him and his entire country.
2
Kim Jong -un at 35 years old has more experience leading a nation state than anyone in the Trump White House and Cabinet combined. Mr. Kim and Mr. Trump both originally inherited their wealth and power. Xi Jinping of China is the son of a Long March legend that partially explains his rise. Corpulence seems to conform to and confirm comfort.
Both Korea and China are united by being the victims of ethnic Japanese supremacist imperial colonialism. There is only one historically ethnic unified Korea divided by socioeconomic political civil war conflict. North Korea is a buffer to American hegemony on the Korean peninsula. While South Korea presents a similar buffer against China.
Mr. Kim reasonably and rationally wants to remain in governing political power. But Mr. Kim feels threatened by American arms and troops in South Korea and Japan. Beginning with George W. Bush's ill advised "axis of evil' speech Mr. Kim watched what happened in Libya and Iraq when their leaders had no nuclear weapons protection.
While the ignorant, immature, incompetent, inexperienced, intemperate and insecure President of the United States Donald Trump has brought his Siberian President Ivanka and Jared House of Trump reality TV show to the Oval Office of our White House. With 5% of humanity the 2.3 million Americans in prison are 25% of the world's total. And 40% of them are black like Ben Carson even though blacks are only 13% of Americans. Not bad for "a tyrant apprentice."
Both Korea and China are united by being the victims of ethnic Japanese supremacist imperial colonialism. There is only one historically ethnic unified Korea divided by socioeconomic political civil war conflict. North Korea is a buffer to American hegemony on the Korean peninsula. While South Korea presents a similar buffer against China.
Mr. Kim reasonably and rationally wants to remain in governing political power. But Mr. Kim feels threatened by American arms and troops in South Korea and Japan. Beginning with George W. Bush's ill advised "axis of evil' speech Mr. Kim watched what happened in Libya and Iraq when their leaders had no nuclear weapons protection.
While the ignorant, immature, incompetent, inexperienced, intemperate and insecure President of the United States Donald Trump has brought his Siberian President Ivanka and Jared House of Trump reality TV show to the Oval Office of our White House. With 5% of humanity the 2.3 million Americans in prison are 25% of the world's total. And 40% of them are black like Ben Carson even though blacks are only 13% of Americans. Not bad for "a tyrant apprentice."
2
"Behind Trump’s “fire and fury” bluster?"
That's your spin. It was a threat and a warning, and one Jong Un needed to hear in no uncertain terms. What would you do? Mince words and not say what would happen if Jong Un dared use one of his Nukes against us or one of our allies? Yes: it would be "fire and fury" unlike anything we've seen since WWII - and probably worse. Or nuclear submarine fleet alone could wipe North Korea off the map. Everyone else in the world knows this, too, and Jong Un, needs to take this seriously. You, OTOH, don't take this seriously, as shown by your continual childish insults and insinuations toward the president of the United States who is trying to deal with a very serious, and dangerous situation, and gets zero support from you or the Times, in general. And I don't care if you voted for Trump, or not. Jong Un is threatening the peace and security of the world, and you are on the wrong side of the fence here!
That's your spin. It was a threat and a warning, and one Jong Un needed to hear in no uncertain terms. What would you do? Mince words and not say what would happen if Jong Un dared use one of his Nukes against us or one of our allies? Yes: it would be "fire and fury" unlike anything we've seen since WWII - and probably worse. Or nuclear submarine fleet alone could wipe North Korea off the map. Everyone else in the world knows this, too, and Jong Un, needs to take this seriously. You, OTOH, don't take this seriously, as shown by your continual childish insults and insinuations toward the president of the United States who is trying to deal with a very serious, and dangerous situation, and gets zero support from you or the Times, in general. And I don't care if you voted for Trump, or not. Jong Un is threatening the peace and security of the world, and you are on the wrong side of the fence here!
Putin said yesterday that we are fanning the flames of War Hysteria. China said, in no uncertain terms, that they would be opposed to a preemptive strike on NK. Its hysteria when JS on MJ ticked off in his rapid staccato a list of west coast cities to be incinerated while we slept...the implication being...tonight. Take a deep breath, relax. The Tyrant has how many warheads on missiles able to reach our shores, how many times have they tested the system? I think the answer is 0. And besides, how many billions $$$ have we sent on missile defense...is it worthless? But that's what SK and Japan want, not war but more THAD systems. We cannot either launch a preemptive strike, likely Nuclear or retaliate with a Nuclear firestorm without jeopardizing the survival of life on Earth. See it in the movie, On The Beach. So why not try peace talks and forget the hysteria.? We have the capability of preventing a relative mosquito from doing harm and should be working hard on a way to prevent a launch . Maybe we have it now. Remember, as has been written, If the campaign is protracted, (and this would be never ending) the resources of the state will not be equal to the strain.Then no man however wise will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue.
Sun Tsu..The Art of War.
Sun Tsu..The Art of War.
1
Excellent thinking Mr. Stephens, but why not come out and say it out loud: the Chinese are probably feeding Kim his strategy to get us out of their area.
1
The collapse of that regime is inevitable as is the reunification of Korea. It will not happen soon. But the faster China develops and becomes capitalist and inevitably democratic the faster N. Korea will become a distraction.
BTW Bret I re-read your column and some of the same advice can go to others with bad hair cuts and bluster.
BTW Bret I re-read your column and some of the same advice can go to others with bad hair cuts and bluster.
China is playing us for fools.
China has a long border with North Korea. Russia has a short border with North Korea. The Chinese, with only a little help from the Russians, could seal off North Korea and bring it to starvation in a month. The Chinese are surely annoyed by the massive U.S. military presence in east Asia.
And so China is using North Korea as the tool that makes the U.S. wary of its military investment in the area. China is in control here. Kim probably understands how this game is being played.
Do we?
China has a long border with North Korea. Russia has a short border with North Korea. The Chinese, with only a little help from the Russians, could seal off North Korea and bring it to starvation in a month. The Chinese are surely annoyed by the massive U.S. military presence in east Asia.
And so China is using North Korea as the tool that makes the U.S. wary of its military investment in the area. China is in control here. Kim probably understands how this game is being played.
Do we?
2
"Another lesson for tyrants: You do not subjugate a people by taking everything from them. You subjugate them by giving them something they know you can take away. Desperate people aren’t always obedient. Dependent people usually are."
Sounds like the Democratic Party's game plan for that past several decades.
Sounds like the Democratic Party's game plan for that past several decades.
What do you think would happen if the US started detonating bombs, say 20 miles above North Korea, detonating at an altitude where no damage could actually occur? We could do scores of bombs an hour, and would completely light up the nighttime sky over North Korea. Kim wouldn't dare attack Seoul, for the reasons stated in this article, and we could continue this assault until Kim swears off his project of nuclear armament.
Sounds crazy, right? But it's a thought.
Sounds crazy, right? But it's a thought.
1
I have an entirely new take on the NK vs. US situation. I phrase it as the moral of the movie War Games: “The winning move is not to play.” If the US does nothing, NK will do nothing. Why would it? Instead of giving NK attention as it screams and struts to be a major player, the US should essentially ignore it. Or it might offer a limited number of visas to NK-government-approved visitors for cultural exchanges or tourist visits; indeed, it might invite Kim Jong Un to the White House on a state visit. Now would that invitation not spoil his story? Otherwise, sanctions should be continued to signal disapproval, but they should be stand-alone.
"Tyranny is an art, the foremost requirement of which is to instill the appropriate sense of dread and awe." Good description of both Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump.
1
Within the context of the following points, please note the extent to which the names "Kim" and "Trump" are interchangeable and that, when they are not interchangeable, it is due to our lack of knowledge of Kim.
Kim may well know:
~That Trump seldom listens to his own advisers.
~That the international reputation of the nation Trump "leads" is at an all-time low.
~That, even among his allies, Trump’s credibility is plummeting
~That Trump’s responses to the slightest provocation are uncensored, often vengeful and ill-serve his nation's international reputation and global interests.
~That the narcissistic Trump is responsive to manipulative flattery.
~That Trump's chief motive is self-aggrandizement.
~That if Trump aspired to be a successful leader, he would need to possess a coherent vision of his nation's objectives and an in-depth knowledge of the threats to its national interests — and that Trump has no such vision and knowledge.
~That the ego-centric Trump scarcely acknowledges there is a factual world out there, inhabited by other persons, concerning which he should form a coherent vision, and over and against which he should reflect on the quality of his own character and comportment.
In brief, Kim may know: Mr. Trump is unfit to be the Glorious Leader of a nation.
Kim may well know:
~That Trump seldom listens to his own advisers.
~That the international reputation of the nation Trump "leads" is at an all-time low.
~That, even among his allies, Trump’s credibility is plummeting
~That Trump’s responses to the slightest provocation are uncensored, often vengeful and ill-serve his nation's international reputation and global interests.
~That the narcissistic Trump is responsive to manipulative flattery.
~That Trump's chief motive is self-aggrandizement.
~That if Trump aspired to be a successful leader, he would need to possess a coherent vision of his nation's objectives and an in-depth knowledge of the threats to its national interests — and that Trump has no such vision and knowledge.
~That the ego-centric Trump scarcely acknowledges there is a factual world out there, inhabited by other persons, concerning which he should form a coherent vision, and over and against which he should reflect on the quality of his own character and comportment.
In brief, Kim may know: Mr. Trump is unfit to be the Glorious Leader of a nation.
2
So much going on, hurricanes,are not new, but blaming human activities for their greater fierceness is, nuclear weapons are not new, but being unwilling to sleep at night with them around seems brand new, am I wrong to lay me down to sleep with Kim around? No, I may take a big frying pan to bed with me, but, I am not loosing sleep over it, but Kim is not the extortionist he's made out to be, one worrisome man yes, but I for one want to hear his side from him, I know he knows I go to sleep at night with him on my mind, because of his actions, but I must live with it, I needn't die for it. Maybe just maybe, he and his darkened people, his country visibly dark from space, is somehow free in a way we must deal with in a brave way, a wise way.
While the world is tizzy over recent developments in North Korea, it is worth remembering that nothing has changed on the ground. North Korea have had an atomic bomb since 2006. For over a decade, North Korea had the ability to blow up a city and annihilate millions of people. The recent developments on both power of their nuclear device and the missile technology are real, yet they just expand the circle of convenient destruction. In the end what does it matter if North Korea drops an ICBM over New York in 2020 or detonate a half dozen nuclear devices in shipping containers in New York harbors in 2008? Nothing. Even for the U.S., it is worth remembering that North Korea had the capability to blow up any city in South Korea and Japan filled with hundreds of thousands of American soldiers and their families, business executives, English teachers, and college students for over a decade. The reason why the father Kim Jong-il and the son Kim Jong-un haven't used their atomic arsenal--namely that this is the only thing that will immediately end them and their regime--is still the same reason why Kim can't use whatever new nuclear weapon his pathetic regime develops in the future. The Trump administration full of bluster and fury that signifies nothing will find out that there is a good reason why previous administrations met North Korean provocation ultimately with a quiet shrug: at the end of the day, you can't feed your country with nuclear weapons.
15
Double the size of the THAAD installation in South Korea. Install a large THAAD installation in Japan and the Philippines. Enlarge the size of the 7th Fleet. All in response to "the threat of North Korea". Those actions would drive China to distraction. They want the US out of the Pacific, not an enlarged presence. Double down in response to the current crisis until North Korea is denuclearized. Then be patient. Make the nuclear issue in Korea be China's problem instead of ours.
Kim is trying to re-create the Cold War doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction -- and he's succeeding. He knows Trump is bluffing and won't preemptively attack lest it trigger full-scale war in Asia. But Kim's pushing the limits of his strategy. What if one of his missiles "accidentally" hits South Korea or Japan? Kim is counting on the pacifism of those countries to negate the risk of counterattack. But if a North Korean missile hits a US military installation, will the US be forced to respond in kind? Maybe not -- if Kim "apologizes" and "promises" to be more careful in the future. Still, he's waving a lighted torch in a room filled with explosives. Trump's got to be frightened, but he can also be irrational. A tweet or two won't resolve this mess.
Excellent article. And after Stephens wrote "The man's a gift" for Donald Trump's decision that now was the perfect time to start a trade war with South Korea, Trump utterly surpasses himself by threatening to cut off ALL trade with all countries doing business with North Korea. Included among them are China, Russia, Ukraine (the Russia ruled parts, which have provided the new powerful and reliable rocket engines), India, Pakistan, Thailand, the Philippines,and others. NOBODY but Donald Trump can louse up diplomacy like that.
2
As we know from history, dictatorships do not end well. The achilles heel of all dictatorships is the reliance on "fear" as their sole organizational weapon and ignoring the economic well-being of their country.
"Desperate people aren’t always obedient. Dependent people usually are"
I can't help but think that axiom holds true for many of us in the world who are dependent on, and thus obedient to the masters of our respective universes. North Koreans get table scraps. We get second rate jobs, as many as we can fit into 24 hrs a day, and are terrified of losing them. But desperation is creeping in. Trump is proof positive. When the dear leader of the sorriest nation on earth resembles the one leading the most powerful one, something is afoot.
"And you know something's happening, And you don't know what it is.
Do you Mr. Jones?" Bob Dylan, who saw it all coming so very long ago.
I can't help but think that axiom holds true for many of us in the world who are dependent on, and thus obedient to the masters of our respective universes. North Koreans get table scraps. We get second rate jobs, as many as we can fit into 24 hrs a day, and are terrified of losing them. But desperation is creeping in. Trump is proof positive. When the dear leader of the sorriest nation on earth resembles the one leading the most powerful one, something is afoot.
"And you know something's happening, And you don't know what it is.
Do you Mr. Jones?" Bob Dylan, who saw it all coming so very long ago.
KIM'S VULNERABILITY
On a tour of South Korea last month, two refugees from the North opined that senior regime officials around Kim actually detest him, but remain cowed by his threats to eliminate opposition.
While Kim may be able to play China and the US against each other on the international economic stage, he must maintain his tyranny by maintaining his threat to his henchmen. Sowing doubts and fears among those closest to him, perhaps augmented by doing the same in the countryside as the deserted do by sending thumb drives with reality news via balloon into the North, is likely to be a cheaper and more effective method to eliminate him than working in the diplomatic and economic domains.
Our deserters opined that, without the Kim Dynasty, the others around him would more rationally seek a more secure and well-fed population.
A focus on an information campaign to destabilize his ruling clique is my policy recommendation -- not to exclude other dimensions of pressure on him and on China.
On a tour of South Korea last month, two refugees from the North opined that senior regime officials around Kim actually detest him, but remain cowed by his threats to eliminate opposition.
While Kim may be able to play China and the US against each other on the international economic stage, he must maintain his tyranny by maintaining his threat to his henchmen. Sowing doubts and fears among those closest to him, perhaps augmented by doing the same in the countryside as the deserted do by sending thumb drives with reality news via balloon into the North, is likely to be a cheaper and more effective method to eliminate him than working in the diplomatic and economic domains.
Our deserters opined that, without the Kim Dynasty, the others around him would more rationally seek a more secure and well-fed population.
A focus on an information campaign to destabilize his ruling clique is my policy recommendation -- not to exclude other dimensions of pressure on him and on China.
Proxy wars and threats seem to be one of the oldest solutions for major nations or ideologies to test the endurance of it's competitors. Not much is new here.
My greatest fear about North Korea is not that it will ever attack South Korea or any of our other allies, but that it will eventually sell a nuclear weapon to another enemy of the US, i.e., Al Qaeda, ISIS, etc., who will then slip it into a major US city and detonate it for terror. Thus, North Korea could do indirectly what it would never do directly. Given the fact that this is a country that has no qualms about international criminal conduct (counterfeiting our currency, hacking into Sony's computer system, assassinations on foreign soil), the only question is how much money it could get for such a bomb. In the long run, it is probably inevitable that a nuclear weapon will come into the hands of a terrorist organization.
41
Aren't we hacking into their computer system? We should be doing so 24/7, drawing on our considerable computer nerd resources, in a real life computer game. We should be number one, or close to it, at hacking.
Nations that feel an existential threat through threat, paranoia, or historical division and conflict are ripe for considering the nuclear option. (Pakistan is another example that comes to mind). Seems too that any country with enough resources and determination can always find a willing partner to share technology and nuclear material. Couple this with the fact that a preemptive strike on North Korea would mean war with China, it should remind us all to quit talking about a military option...it's just howling at the moon and makes us all seem like just another madman.
Washington's long-term goal should indeed be the demise of the North Korean regime, but only in the context of the peaceful reunification of Korea. To accomplish this, it needs to bring China onside by withdrawing its ground forces from South Korea. When North Korea no longer has a powerful enemy ready to invade by land, the regime's raison d'etre will disappear. Then, the US needs to compensate China for the inconvenience of the North Korean population flooding over the border, to keep it onside.
The US and Soviet Union made MAD work for 40 years, but what are the odds that the US and North Korea can accomplish the same feat?
The US and Soviet Union made MAD work for 40 years, but what are the odds that the US and North Korea can accomplish the same feat?
It's tough to overthrow one's own assumptions. Not much has actually changed. North Korea has had nuclear weapons for years and the ability to deliver them covertly via ship and truck to Seoul or the USA, keeping us at bay. Testing ICBMs grants attention and stokes fears but doesn't actually provide much of a new capability as the US might shoot down the missiles and surely would retaliate in massive force if they were ever used.
We need to look closer to understand the deeper ploys. Remembering Qaddafi, Kim isn't going to give up power or give up his nukes for any conceivable trades. He has to fear China, South Korea (and Japan), not just the USA. Keeping up the tension helps hold power and prompts gifts from the great powers over the long haul beyond short term sanctions.
China doesn't want the US/South Korean allies on its borders, preferring the Koreas be in its orbit or neutralized, securing its "first island chain." China's larger aim is probably to push out the USA from the East China Sea, Korea and Japan. Trump's rhetoric and lack of results might make local leaders leery. Perhaps they'll cut a deal with China at some future point. Small moves now, but looking for effects in decades to come.
Russia's focus is to keep China out of Siberia and to increase instability in the former Soviet Republics to keep them weak and out of Western alliances. Instability in Northeast Asia and the Middle East helps.
Trump needs to read up about "rope-a-dope."
We need to look closer to understand the deeper ploys. Remembering Qaddafi, Kim isn't going to give up power or give up his nukes for any conceivable trades. He has to fear China, South Korea (and Japan), not just the USA. Keeping up the tension helps hold power and prompts gifts from the great powers over the long haul beyond short term sanctions.
China doesn't want the US/South Korean allies on its borders, preferring the Koreas be in its orbit or neutralized, securing its "first island chain." China's larger aim is probably to push out the USA from the East China Sea, Korea and Japan. Trump's rhetoric and lack of results might make local leaders leery. Perhaps they'll cut a deal with China at some future point. Small moves now, but looking for effects in decades to come.
Russia's focus is to keep China out of Siberia and to increase instability in the former Soviet Republics to keep them weak and out of Western alliances. Instability in Northeast Asia and the Middle East helps.
Trump needs to read up about "rope-a-dope."
1
Is there not a deal to be made: In exchange for ending the North Korean nuclear program, North Korea gets (1) peace treaty to end the Korean War and (2) withdrawal of American troops from peninsula? U. S. to maintain strong naval presence to deter invasion by North Korea of South Korea.
Why not a U.S. policy stated as follows to Kim Jong Un: If we locate or detect any nuclear facilities or weapons, we will immediately strike and destroy those weapons to the best of our ability using the full capabilities of our military; we do not seek and will not pursue regime change or your personal downfall, unless you strike South Korea or the United States in return, in which case we will assure the destruction of the regime and you personally; if you accept destruction of your weapons and verifiably prove that you have no more, we will let you live in peace. This strikes me as a credible policy to which the only rational, self-preserving response is for Kim Jong Un to accept destruction (voluntary or involuntary) of his nuclear weapons.
The American and South Korean hesitance to use force stems from a belief that Kim Jong Un would retailiate with full scale war, which I think is not a rational response since it would spell the end of him personally and his regime more generally. If nothing else, he has demonstrated time and again that he is rational (if you accept his overall strategic aims and his knowledge of past U.S. and South Korean responses to his provocations). It is time to change the equation by clearly stating and credibly following the policy outlined above.
The American and South Korean hesitance to use force stems from a belief that Kim Jong Un would retailiate with full scale war, which I think is not a rational response since it would spell the end of him personally and his regime more generally. If nothing else, he has demonstrated time and again that he is rational (if you accept his overall strategic aims and his knowledge of past U.S. and South Korean responses to his provocations). It is time to change the equation by clearly stating and credibly following the policy outlined above.
1
I'm not really certain what to get from your article other than the horrific details of his execution program.
Should I come away from your article with praise for Kim Jong-un, as your last sentence implies and much of your piece encourages? Should I be even more worried that Trump will continue to strengthen his Asian twin's resolve to do irreparable harm that will cause countless deaths? Should I draw hints from your paragraph on potential threats to N. Korea? Draw hints on how to be a successful dictator?
I'm at a loss.
Should I come away from your article with praise for Kim Jong-un, as your last sentence implies and much of your piece encourages? Should I be even more worried that Trump will continue to strengthen his Asian twin's resolve to do irreparable harm that will cause countless deaths? Should I draw hints from your paragraph on potential threats to N. Korea? Draw hints on how to be a successful dictator?
I'm at a loss.
Wars used to be won by who had the best archers. Nuclear weapons means a state the size of Mississippi and an economy the size of Wyoming can play war with a huge state like the United States. The goals of the two countries are not much different: the US doesn’t want to be threatened with nuclear weapons and North Korea doesn’t want to be threatened by the United States. Almost all game theory models assume nuclear war would only be started by accident. It is all about posturing and risk taking. I would wager the United States feels it has more to lose than North Korea. Sure, we can obliterate North Korea but North Korea can do a lot of damage before it goes down. North Korea is now a nuclear power and nothing short of annihilation will change that, and we will never do that. What we really should do, which we won’t, is stop threatening Kim. Kim knows very well the bluster about not seeking regime change is a complete lie. All Kim wants is to be left alone to enjoy his ill-gotten rewards.
Supporting the PRK's development of nukes is not an effective way of pushing the U.S. out of East Asia. Just this week, South Korean Defense Minister Song discussed deploying U.S. nuclear weapons in the country with Defense Secretary Mattis. This points to the eventual direction of U.S. strategy. Rather than back down from our role in Asia, America will deploy nukes to both South Korea and Japan, hardly the outcome that China wants. The only winner here will be Kim, whose provocations are eliciting the desired saber rattling from Trump, which only serves to perpetuate Kim's dictatorship.
2
I can't help but think of the many other dictators who have pursued their survival at the expense of almost everyone around them: Assad as one of the many sociopaths in chief in the world, with Erdogan and Al Sisi and Duterte not far behind.
Our Trump is selfish, immature, and self-obsessed enough to use the US for his own benefit in the same way, clumping across the hard-earned community and freedoms we have gained over the past century or more.
This is a very interesting and in my opinion accurate assessment of the game. Would that Trump and his fans would have the ability to see this straight, and stop playing tiddlywinks with our international status and security in the middle of a succession of hurricanes and other extreme weather that is stretching our economy in ways almost beyond imagination.
Being real rather than emotional, open rather than closed minded, thinking of others are equals: what a hope!
Our Trump is selfish, immature, and self-obsessed enough to use the US for his own benefit in the same way, clumping across the hard-earned community and freedoms we have gained over the past century or more.
This is a very interesting and in my opinion accurate assessment of the game. Would that Trump and his fans would have the ability to see this straight, and stop playing tiddlywinks with our international status and security in the middle of a succession of hurricanes and other extreme weather that is stretching our economy in ways almost beyond imagination.
Being real rather than emotional, open rather than closed minded, thinking of others are equals: what a hope!
4
Odd, how rarely it's mentioned how the Korean peninsula came to be divided into two states, or how they came to fight a war with one another. Or that the Korean War ended in a cease-fire, which over 50 years later has not resulted in a peace-treaty. For a long time, North Korea's primary diplomatic aim was to secure a peace treaty, which would give them the legitimacy of being recognized as a state. The North suspected, rightly, that America intended it to fail as a state, and to be incorporated into an anti-Communist South Korea.
North Korea felt surrounded and embattled, except by its neighbor, China, a traditional enemy. Encircled by real or potential enemies, it assumed a combative stance, and poured all its resources into military preparation, which eventually became nuclear, with the help of the father of Pakistan's atomic bomb (named Khan, I believe). Constant preparation for war also helped keep the populace afraid and subservient. The road to advancement in North Korea lay through the military.
By accepting North Korea's existence, letting 'em into the U.N., refusing to rise to their provocations and essentially ignoring them, we could avert the danger of war, and make it harder for Kim to keep his own people in a constant sweat of angst that they are about to be invaded. But one suspects that alarm about the nuclear threat of North Korea is useful, too, to the war-hawks in Washington, who can't get over the fact that this little country can stand up to The Empire.
North Korea felt surrounded and embattled, except by its neighbor, China, a traditional enemy. Encircled by real or potential enemies, it assumed a combative stance, and poured all its resources into military preparation, which eventually became nuclear, with the help of the father of Pakistan's atomic bomb (named Khan, I believe). Constant preparation for war also helped keep the populace afraid and subservient. The road to advancement in North Korea lay through the military.
By accepting North Korea's existence, letting 'em into the U.N., refusing to rise to their provocations and essentially ignoring them, we could avert the danger of war, and make it harder for Kim to keep his own people in a constant sweat of angst that they are about to be invaded. But one suspects that alarm about the nuclear threat of North Korea is useful, too, to the war-hawks in Washington, who can't get over the fact that this little country can stand up to The Empire.
10
The telepathic ability to read the mind of a not natural person, North Korea, is remarkable.
As is the one lie after another about what North Korea has done and why it has done it.
Poor, innocent, picked on, North Korea.
June 24, 1950. Poor innocent North Korea invaded to impose its commie will on its fellow Koreans. Complications ensued but North Koreans are still busy killing around the world in all sorts of nasty ways. It is an expression of their oppression.
As is the one lie after another about what North Korea has done and why it has done it.
Poor, innocent, picked on, North Korea.
June 24, 1950. Poor innocent North Korea invaded to impose its commie will on its fellow Koreans. Complications ensued but North Koreans are still busy killing around the world in all sorts of nasty ways. It is an expression of their oppression.
Yes, Bill Clinton had struck a deal which gave them food, a low enrichment reactor for power generation and a modicum of security as a state and a regime, which, as you point out so well, is what they want. Bush and Cheney, the "Wanted Dead or Alive" cowboys who got royally played by Bin Laden,unilaterally blew up the agreement and added North Korea to its Onward Christian Soldiers list of "the axis of evil". Game over, hello nukes. Brilliant. What incredible arrogance and stupidity. Now we pay, as Trump turns his blustering Amateur Hour into a reality show that is all too real. and he expects China to help! Hilarious, if the danger were not so grave.
I disagree with the statement that "for a long time, North Korea's primary diplomatic aim was to secure a peace treaty". They were the ones most opposed to a peace treaty, or at least to any peace treaty that did not make them rulers of South Korea. Also, the Kims have very effectively used the existence of war to keep their population in line.
2
And what if the USA just left North Korea alone? Ignored it? What leverage does Kim have then? Do we really need to fear a first strike on our territory when our policy to him is simply to do nothing? What would he gain from that???
Time to turn the other cheek and leave him fuming, shown to be the impotent person that he is.
Time to turn the other cheek and leave him fuming, shown to be the impotent person that he is.
23
That is ok if we make darned sure that we have the maximum capability possible to detect and destroy any ICBM's launched at us or our allies. We should also continually work on ways short of overt offensive weapon deployment to intervene in,retard, and degrade NK's Nuke ICBM capabilities.
Simply ignoring NK in the absence of building ones own defensive and military response capabilities is too risky. Whistling past the graveyard. Do we feel lucky? Well do we?
Simply ignoring NK in the absence of building ones own defensive and military response capabilities is too risky. Whistling past the graveyard. Do we feel lucky? Well do we?
1
Kim would then have plenty of leverage, not least of which would be the ability to attack South Korea. And if we just "left him alone" he could defeat South Korea.
1
If you have little to nothing to give to make desperate people into dependent people, taking away everything they have may be the only road open to you. China's ancient water empires may have been instructive to Kim. You have two communities growing beyond the ability of a shared river to support that growth. What do you do? You determine which community has been most loyal to you, then you divert the river in its entirety to deny the other ANY water. Soon enough, you have only one growing community, and it's loyal. Clever, those Asians.
Kim's best option would have been to get China to clandestinely agitate for repeal of the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, thereby allowing a U.S. president to exceed two terms in office. You get Barack Obama elected to a third term, North Korea might very well get the baksheesh it needs to at least attempt that 50-year solution. As it is ... Kim rock meet Trump hard place. But after 65 years of failure to get this failed state off the world's back, maybe Trump's way is worth pushing for now.
"We'll meet again, don't know where, don't know when ..."
Kim's best option would have been to get China to clandestinely agitate for repeal of the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, thereby allowing a U.S. president to exceed two terms in office. You get Barack Obama elected to a third term, North Korea might very well get the baksheesh it needs to at least attempt that 50-year solution. As it is ... Kim rock meet Trump hard place. But after 65 years of failure to get this failed state off the world's back, maybe Trump's way is worth pushing for now.
"We'll meet again, don't know where, don't know when ..."
1
Really? You think Trump has a way? And what would that way be then? Please inform us all about the Trump way to solve this problem.
Here's what I think, Trump has no ideas, no coherent strategy, he has nothing.
Here's what I think, Trump has no ideas, no coherent strategy, he has nothing.
4
I am surprised that you consider Trump to be a "hard place". Trump is a man who appears to have no firm goals or objectives beyond be acclaimed and admired.
After all his xenophobic anti-immigrant positions he just tweeted: "For all of those (DACA) that are concerned about your status during the 6 month period, you have nothing to worry about - No action!"
After all his xenophobic anti-immigrant positions he just tweeted: "For all of those (DACA) that are concerned about your status during the 6 month period, you have nothing to worry about - No action!"
2
Now you've jumped the shark.
2
We are in the process of gradually accepting what has been named as "unacceptable." As long as NK's evolution to nuclear powerhoood was gradual, it was below the radar and we lived with it. Have recent months really changed the fundamentals all that much -- 'fire and fury' aside?
1
Both China and Russia want the US off of the Korean Peninsula, and have calculated that Kim Jong-Un's ambitions are also focused on that outcome. The end of the US presence, and avoiding a failure of the North Korean state that results in an uncontrollable refugee problem, are their policy goals. Kim's long-term goal,I suspect, is a settlement with South Korea that abrogates its treaty relationships with the US. He may even dream of a kind of unification, something hitherto unimaginable. Given the shifts in world power and the distance of the Korean Peninsula from the US, it is hard to say whether any US president could do more than delay that outcome. The leadership of Donald Trump may be inspiring hope on Kim's part that that happy day can come sooner, rather than later.
10
I, too, want the U.S. off the Korean Peninsula. Our presence there contributes no more to our national security than would, say, Mexico's or Canada's. In fact, it appears to me to threaten our security, contributing to Kim Jong-Un's bombast.
2
The conclusion here being that in the end we will do nothing to stop Kim because the costs are too great, among them a global economic collapse and/or a nuclear war.
But what are the costs if we do nothing? The end of the America Empire and with it the termination of Pax Americana; the realization that trillions of dollars in defense spending have left us undefended against a small, poor rival; nuclear proliferation throughout Asia; the probable end of the dollar as the world's reserve currency; and the prospect of living under the constant threat of a self-proclaimed demigod who could lay waste to the homeland if his latest demands are not met.
This is the calculus of the decision now before us. It is not like anything we have ever had to confront in the past.
But what are the costs if we do nothing? The end of the America Empire and with it the termination of Pax Americana; the realization that trillions of dollars in defense spending have left us undefended against a small, poor rival; nuclear proliferation throughout Asia; the probable end of the dollar as the world's reserve currency; and the prospect of living under the constant threat of a self-proclaimed demigod who could lay waste to the homeland if his latest demands are not met.
This is the calculus of the decision now before us. It is not like anything we have ever had to confront in the past.
15
It is ridiculous to say we are "undefended" against North Korea. Our defense is not as good as it was previously, but North Korea could have attacked us anytime in the last 60 years with weapons of mass destruction smuggled into the U.S.
It is wrong to say this is unlike anything in the past. This is similar to the situation we faced with Stalin at the end of his life, when he had nuclear weapons.
It is wrong to say this is unlike anything in the past. This is similar to the situation we faced with Stalin at the end of his life, when he had nuclear weapons.
9
"This is the calculus of the decision now before us. It is not like anything we have ever had to confront in the past."
Munich, 1938.
Munich, 1938.
1
Ridiculous?
In the history of the world no country like Nkrth Korea has had the ability to annihilate a country like the United States. That is a fact.
And the chance of nuclear war will skyrocket, so to speak, as South Korea and Japan and Taiwan and Vietnam and even Singapore do not get their own nukes.
Those on planet earth know there has never been a gangster state using nukes to threaten whoever it has a mind to threaten.
But spoiled rotten Americans say and do what spoiled rotten people say and do. Kim counts on them. Objective allies.
In the history of the world no country like Nkrth Korea has had the ability to annihilate a country like the United States. That is a fact.
And the chance of nuclear war will skyrocket, so to speak, as South Korea and Japan and Taiwan and Vietnam and even Singapore do not get their own nukes.
Those on planet earth know there has never been a gangster state using nukes to threaten whoever it has a mind to threaten.
But spoiled rotten Americans say and do what spoiled rotten people say and do. Kim counts on them. Objective allies.
1
I'm not sure I trust the isolationist instincts of the Trump administration. The man is not well known for his political constancy. Actually, we'd probably be at war already if not for institutional restraint. You need someone constantly reminding the President that millions of people will die if he chooses the military option. You mean I can't...? No Mr. President. Still a bad idea.
This brings us back to the essential paradox of the Korean War. You can't defeat North Korea without starting a war with China. We can't defeat China. To paraphrase: The most classic blunder in history is to get involved in a land war with Asia. Even an economic war is ruinous. We don't have the means to conquer China without destroying ourselves in the process.
The unwanted relationship between North Korea and China dates back a while. In the beginning, Mao wanted to hang the original Kim out to dry. Only Stalin's insistence forced his hand. Now we find ourselves here today. China considers North Korea's existence more convenient than not. Trump better learn to deal with that fact. Until Kim offends China irrevocably, his death bed is looking warm and comfy.
This brings us back to the essential paradox of the Korean War. You can't defeat North Korea without starting a war with China. We can't defeat China. To paraphrase: The most classic blunder in history is to get involved in a land war with Asia. Even an economic war is ruinous. We don't have the means to conquer China without destroying ourselves in the process.
The unwanted relationship between North Korea and China dates back a while. In the beginning, Mao wanted to hang the original Kim out to dry. Only Stalin's insistence forced his hand. Now we find ourselves here today. China considers North Korea's existence more convenient than not. Trump better learn to deal with that fact. Until Kim offends China irrevocably, his death bed is looking warm and comfy.
55
I am so tired of the flat out lies and those eager to eat them, no different than the Trump fascist base, just different lies.
It was not hundreds of thousands of Soviets who died in the Korean War. Wikipedia says 299 soviet dead. Turkey? 741. China? 142,00 or 400,000 plus rebranded PLA soldiers dead. Including Mao's son, Mao Anying. But what is a 270,00 gap in dead men to a narcissist? Not even a rounding error but worse, borrrrinnnnng.
Google is wonderful because it is not required to search down truth but it is easier and more fun to just make stuff up. Click send. Narcissism forever! Go Kim go!
It was not hundreds of thousands of Soviets who died in the Korean War. Wikipedia says 299 soviet dead. Turkey? 741. China? 142,00 or 400,000 plus rebranded PLA soldiers dead. Including Mao's son, Mao Anying. But what is a 270,00 gap in dead men to a narcissist? Not even a rounding error but worse, borrrrinnnnng.
Google is wonderful because it is not required to search down truth but it is easier and more fun to just make stuff up. Click send. Narcissism forever! Go Kim go!
Bret, I think you're implying that China is much less disturbed by Kim than is commonly thought. He does serve their purposes in keeping American partner South Korea away from their border via any unification. China surely fears the North's nuclear threat far less than we do. They could take the place out in a minute. So maybe the Chinese don't actually control Kim yet feel that he's nonetheless under control. As a bonus, he draws attention away from what China is attempting in the South China Seas and elsewhere.
28
Insightful comment, but I would observe that having a unified Korea on its border would not be a definite negative for China, which until recently has enjoyed a thriving trade with South Korea. Without the US involvement, South Korea or some future version of it could be a friend and client. So yeah, the idea that Kim is a useful irritant for the US makes sense. Perhaps that would be a good development--but insofar as it is a screen behind which the Chinese can seize the South China Sea, it's not so good.
As a result of WWII, three countries ended up divided: Vietnam, Germany and Korea. In all three countries the divided parts hated each other with a vengeance. Two of the three countries became re-united, one under "Communist Rule", the other as a member of the "Free World". None of the two is now a problem or a danger to its neighbors. Maybe the "World Leaders" ought to consider these irrefutable facts.
16
But consider how they were reunited. The Vietnam model is not particularly attractive. The unification of Germany took place under conditions that probably have few equivalents in Korea today. In particular, there was no equivalent of Kim.
Neither East Germany or North Vietnam were ruled by a "God". That I think is a difference worth considering.
Once there were three kingdoms in Korea, so two are a step forward according to your theory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Kingdoms_of_Korea
Then again, once India was a collection of princely states that united into a single country, which promptly fell apart into India and Pakistan, with Pakistan in turn shedding Bangladesh. I'm not sure you can draw general conclusions from a couple of examples.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Republic_of_India
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Kingdoms_of_Korea
Then again, once India was a collection of princely states that united into a single country, which promptly fell apart into India and Pakistan, with Pakistan in turn shedding Bangladesh. I'm not sure you can draw general conclusions from a couple of examples.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Republic_of_India
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangladesh
2
Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un, Fred Trump and Donald Trump. If Kim and Donald's fathers were alive today, I bet they'd be bursting with pride at their sons' success in becoming the focus of the world's attention even if it's as menaces to the civilized world. They knew there was no such thing as bad publicity.
14
Stephens's "lesson for tyrants" (You do not subjugate a people by taking everything from them. You subjugate them by giving them something they know you can take away.) is astute and applies not only to absolute tyrannies like North Korea, but also to relative tyrannies like the Trump administration. As he notes, referring to Trump, "The man's a gift" - but not to the American people.
49
I don't understand this column. What solution does Stephens wish us to adopt? Is he advocating harsher methods including military action? Is he advocating diplomatic or economic pressure? Or disengagement altogether. Sarcasm has no point if it doesn't guide us in the direction we ought to take. Everybody 'gets' what Kim's problem is, stated clearly enough in this op-ed. But since Kim's solution to his 'problem' is a continuing nuclear threat to much of Asia and the U.S., what solution will help us? There is nothing of substance that Trump has done which is fundamentally different yet than previous administrations of both parties, although his rhetoric is more colorful: 'Mr. Kim, you're a very bad man and you must stop.' If Kim continues, isolationist sentiment in the U.S. will be non-existent; no one is an isolationist about incoming ballistic missiles with nuclear payloads. I think Japan ought to be re-armed, and I think they will be willing to do so, since Kim's weaponry is much closer and more dangerous to them than to us. I think China would appreciate more deeply the necessity of severe pressure on North Korea, when faced with the prospect of a truly re-armed Japan.
37
The underlying recommendation from the article is to go after Korea's oil supply...
Then again we saw how that worked with Japan in WW II.
Then again we saw how that worked with Japan in WW II.
Reburr,
I think you are being charitable about this op-ed, but your observation about Japan and WWII is accurate.
I think you are being charitable about this op-ed, but your observation about Japan and WWII is accurate.
That's basically on the mark. It's a strategy of survival.
As long as Kim understands it's just a game, it won't go over the top. However, if he starts to believe the make believe world they have created, this sort of environment can end up going the direction of Aum Shinrikyo. This is what is not entirely clear.
As long as Kim understands it's just a game, it won't go over the top. However, if he starts to believe the make believe world they have created, this sort of environment can end up going the direction of Aum Shinrikyo. This is what is not entirely clear.
1
The solution to the North Korea problem clearly runs through China. We need to give them incentives to act more effectively. That could include conceding to their position on the Spratlys on the condition of effective action against NK. Doing this would complicate our relationships with South Asia and push them closer to China, but on balance, if it halts NK's missile and bomb program, it could be worth it.
The brilliance (if you want to call it that) of Kim is in the fact that he understands how to attack the US ego. MAGA is all about the myth of American exceptionalism and Kim is challenging it just enough to get a response from Trump and company. He has a 1940s arsenal, yet the US freaks out about it. All we have to do is leave Seoul, as Moon use to want until recently, and the US can leave the Korean War to the Koreans. Kim will not nuke his own peninsula.
2
We actually should think more about leaving Seoul after ensuring the South Korea has beefed up it's missile defense capabilities and Japan has been re-armed.
Mr. Stephens, if ever an American were in a position to air their views, it is you writing at The Times. This letter might never have been needed, let alone published, if former President Obama were still in Office. My understanding is that this is an unpopular vantage point, and my late Irish-American father would have been able to place a far better spin on what is happening. He had passion and he could write.
It is The Year of The Rooster and we have a loud one in our midst. Only China, an ancient civilization, the Imperial Dragon, can decide whether to make the Leader of North Korea see reason. On an aside, it is with a growing sense of doom, that this American sees any hope for the TPP to establish a strong economic understanding with our global industrial nations.
Some of us are feeling sold down the river with these dangerous games that these two leaders are playing and I would ask 'Didn't Your Parents Teach You Anything'.
It is The Year of The Rooster and we have a loud one in our midst. Only China, an ancient civilization, the Imperial Dragon, can decide whether to make the Leader of North Korea see reason. On an aside, it is with a growing sense of doom, that this American sees any hope for the TPP to establish a strong economic understanding with our global industrial nations.
Some of us are feeling sold down the river with these dangerous games that these two leaders are playing and I would ask 'Didn't Your Parents Teach You Anything'.
9
Perhaps it would be helpful if you received an update and refresher course on the purpose and goals of the TPP, outlined in The President's Newsletter Bulletin. You are right in stating that the Honorable Barack Obama is held in high esteem.
As to giving you my trust in any event, let me give this thought due diligence and careful consideration.
As to giving you my trust in any event, let me give this thought due diligence and careful consideration.
Good stuff and funny, for such a horrific subject. Accidently left out the years that previous Presidents tried stupidly to negotiate, cajole, entreat, or just ignore the boy-tyrant while he steadily violated the agreements he did sign and built ever more deadly nuclear capabilities.
So, now it's Trump's fault? What were Obama, Bush II, Clinton and Bush I doing? Were you tempted a funny yet scathing article about Kim Jong-Un back while previous administrations were failing to curb him?
By the way, it's China. Do you really think that little old North Korea came up with thermonuclear technology all by their lonesome?
So, now it's Trump's fault? What were Obama, Bush II, Clinton and Bush I doing? Were you tempted a funny yet scathing article about Kim Jong-Un back while previous administrations were failing to curb him?
By the way, it's China. Do you really think that little old North Korea came up with thermonuclear technology all by their lonesome?
6
Sadly, we're living through a time when reading this causes one to consider our circumstances here at home. I'm thankful that (to his apparent disappointment) we have a system that guards against outright despots. But the, um, president has made pretty clear that, given half a chance, he'd be publicly making examples of his "enemies" too. Indeed, if he had his way, I wouldn't be able to write this and get away with it -- or so it seems, which is the point. Because even now, free speech doesn't feel quite the same as it used to. And it seems most of his followers would agree with him, as far as that all goes. Fortunately, he's less adept than Kim at growing into the job. But even when Trump is over, we'll still be a long way from normal. I'm not sure we'll see normal again in my lifetime.
2
Things sometimes change with astonishing speed. Consider post-WW2 Germany. In any case, here's wishing you a long life.
1
The cold war taught us that the concept of mutually assured destruction had its uses. New York and Moscow still exist because eventually one of the guys was always going to blink in regard to Cuban missiles. Those variables didn't rise to the level where suicide was an option. Today there is a growing fear that an apprentice tyrant in possession of nuclear arms is willing to ignore MAD and risk suicide to prove his place as a world leader. And this fear is not allayed by an apprentice President who may not understand that MAD might also stand for mutually assured decimation.
2
I feel like this situation is very similar to the Cuban missile crisis. Russia got Kennedy to publicly agree not to invade Cuba and Russia removed its nuclear weapons. Privately the US also removed nuclear weapons from Turkey. Castro got what he wanted which was to be left alone by the US.
Kim Jong-Un wants to be left alone. He wants to stay in power and run his country as he sees fit. He's not stupid enough to give up his nuclear weapons program thanks to the example of Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi but if the US will agree not to invade his country he'll probably agree to stop terrorizing Japan, South Korea, and Guam.
Nation building and regime change is the thinking of the past. If North Koreans want change that choice must be there's not ours. Every attempt the US has made at changing another country to run based on our ideals has ended badly. We've squandered money and lives that are better spent here at home.
We don't need another war. China has made it clear to North Korea that they will not come to their aid if they attack us. Let's negotiate a deal with Kim Jong-Un so everyone can move forward. Trump says he's a deal maker, this is his chance to prove it.
Kim Jong-Un wants to be left alone. He wants to stay in power and run his country as he sees fit. He's not stupid enough to give up his nuclear weapons program thanks to the example of Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi but if the US will agree not to invade his country he'll probably agree to stop terrorizing Japan, South Korea, and Guam.
Nation building and regime change is the thinking of the past. If North Koreans want change that choice must be there's not ours. Every attempt the US has made at changing another country to run based on our ideals has ended badly. We've squandered money and lives that are better spent here at home.
We don't need another war. China has made it clear to North Korea that they will not come to their aid if they attack us. Let's negotiate a deal with Kim Jong-Un so everyone can move forward. Trump says he's a deal maker, this is his chance to prove it.
26
"Every attempt the US has made at changing another country to run based on our ideals has ended badly"
That's not really true. It's true that most such attempts have failed but the US was successful with Germany, Japan, Grenada and Panama.
http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Policybrief24.pdf
That's not really true. It's true that most such attempts have failed but the US was successful with Germany, Japan, Grenada and Panama.
http://carnegieendowment.org/files/Policybrief24.pdf
1
Richard Nixon allegedly tried to convince the North Vietnamese that a touch of insanity influenced his war policy, in order to force them to negotiate on his terms. If such was the case, Hanoi called his bluff and secured a deal that paved the way for America's retreat from Vietnam.
Nixon, however, held office in a stable democracy whose constitution constrained his powers through a system of checks and balances. Kim Jong-il faces no such limitations, but he also lacks the protections that insulated Nixon from the threat of assassination or a coup. In his efforts to intimidate the US by recklessly rattling his rockets, therefore, Kim must simultaneously guard his broad back against internal enemies who might fear their potential role as the next props in his "performance art" or who could regard his confrontational approach to the US as an existential threat to the regime.
While Trump richly deserves the scorn implicit in Stephens's analysis, moreover, America poses a greater challenge to Kim's goals than can be deduced from the policies of any particular president. Thus, the glib conclusion stated in the final paragraph rests on the assumption that the US will abandon a role it has played since the end of WWII simply because an inherently weak tyrant borrows a page from Richard Nixon's foreign policy playbook and makes threats whose execution would ensure his own annihilation. Not a likely scenario.
Nixon, however, held office in a stable democracy whose constitution constrained his powers through a system of checks and balances. Kim Jong-il faces no such limitations, but he also lacks the protections that insulated Nixon from the threat of assassination or a coup. In his efforts to intimidate the US by recklessly rattling his rockets, therefore, Kim must simultaneously guard his broad back against internal enemies who might fear their potential role as the next props in his "performance art" or who could regard his confrontational approach to the US as an existential threat to the regime.
While Trump richly deserves the scorn implicit in Stephens's analysis, moreover, America poses a greater challenge to Kim's goals than can be deduced from the policies of any particular president. Thus, the glib conclusion stated in the final paragraph rests on the assumption that the US will abandon a role it has played since the end of WWII simply because an inherently weak tyrant borrows a page from Richard Nixon's foreign policy playbook and makes threats whose execution would ensure his own annihilation. Not a likely scenario.
2
The first step in solving this crisis is to recognize that this indeed is a long game. It took from 1945 to 1990 to fight and win the Cold War, even if it was replaced by a new set of problems. During the entire time, the USA and USSR had country-destroying nuclear arsenals pointed at each other. A new "NATO" is needed, overtly for North Korea, but paying dividends in terms of China. South Korea and Japan must be the core and solid foundation of this organization (NB:The current SEATO does not even include them). After the Berlin Crisis of 1948, Russia was unwilling and unable to intimidate Western Europe. An intelligently assembled, charterd, and resolute organization here will in the span of time do the same with North Korea, unless Mr. Kim and his generals are truly suicidal.
If I am to imagine meself despot of NK, then I would have done and keep on doing exactly what the current despot is doing ; essentially ignoring the U.S:
Me lifeline and control is not born out of me own people. It comes from China.
I must keep them off balance by demonstrating that the flood of refugees from any military skirmish or out and out nuclear war, is going to be across their border. That includes from north and south. ( and any other peoples wanting to get out of the way )
I do me own thing and keep on ignoring the other despot; that feckless and neophyte American one.
Me lifeline and control is not born out of me own people. It comes from China.
I must keep them off balance by demonstrating that the flood of refugees from any military skirmish or out and out nuclear war, is going to be across their border. That includes from north and south. ( and any other peoples wanting to get out of the way )
I do me own thing and keep on ignoring the other despot; that feckless and neophyte American one.
18
Read the book "Nothing to Envy" to learn what life in NK is like. I was especially touched by an account of doctors' picking cotton to make gauze bandages, because the government provided scant medical supplies. Once NK is toppled - however it is done - it will be fascinating to learn how and why more than a generation of human beings were able to be contained like zoo animals. Kim Jong-Un is a devil. His kind must be stopped.
2
I don't know if I'm persuaded more by the cogent argument or by the elegant style, but persuaded I am. Mr. Stephens, as much a gadfly here as he was at the WSJ, is a welcome, if often contrarian, voice on these pages!
2
Kim Jong Un and the art of extortion. He is cynically wrenching up the nuclear pressure to induce the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, to give him him an economic aid package that could transform North Korea. He will never give up his nukes, but perhaps he could be bribed to halt the testing of ICBM's and nuclear weapons. A majority of Americans would find such a deal repugnant and reject it immediately, but when you consider the opportunity cost of the perpetual nuclear weapons crisis with the DPRK, it might it be a small price to pay for a stable Korea. Critic's would certainly cry " blackmail" and " appeasement", but it's smart Realpolitiks North Korea is a country roughly the size of Mississippi, with 23 million people, a majority of whom lack basic electricity. The diversion of financial resources to military spending has left the DPRK bereft of industrial capital and goods. Their problems with food production and the need for international famine relief are well documented. Kim Jong Un's goal of precluding an American attempt at regime change has been accomplished. Forgetting national ego, wouldn't paying few billion extorted dollars to North Korea be the really smart solution?
We'll wait for the column where you address Donald Trump in similar terms.
Obviously we have not one "whip hand" driving the current crisis, but two.
One is a 33-year old boy who knows how to do "crazy". Notwithstanding that our current President once called him a "pretty smart cookie".
The other is a 71-year old adolescent whose buffoonish craziness requires constant vigilance by his handlers, who may or may not succeed 100 percent of the time in reigning him in.
It's a terrifying situation.
Obviously we have not one "whip hand" driving the current crisis, but two.
One is a 33-year old boy who knows how to do "crazy". Notwithstanding that our current President once called him a "pretty smart cookie".
The other is a 71-year old adolescent whose buffoonish craziness requires constant vigilance by his handlers, who may or may not succeed 100 percent of the time in reigning him in.
It's a terrifying situation.
75
Very, trump alone is terrifying.
1
"Or what if somebody found a Stuxnet-type solution to cripple your only operational refinery or blow up the pipeline through which you import crude from China?"
What if, indeed.
What if, indeed.
1
We don't understand the cult of personality that surrounds North Korea's "Dear Leader", nor the paranoid insecurity that drives that nation. The people give Kim Il Sahm (Kim The Third) godlike, rock-star status. They will go without if it means the survival of the DPRK, and see the situation as "Us against the World". Once more we are ignorant of the people, culture or history of half of a country once known as "the Hermit Kingdom".
There can be no military solution to the dilemma posed, when millions in the South are within rang of North Korean artillery. Perhaps, instead, we could open negotiations with the DPRK and actually write a peace treaty. It would replace a 65 year old armistice that has not delivered any real, lasting peace to the North or South of Korea. Instead, it created a bête noir for the Kim Dynasty to feed the DPRK's national insecurity and focus the intrinsic pride of its people.. Such a treaty might include economic assistance or foreign aid, agricultural consultation, etc., as well as open the borders to tourism and trade. Let the people of the DPRK see what others have. Then perhaps they may begin to desire the same for themselves, not unlike what is happening in Cuba, after an impotent 55 year embargo.
Otherwise, we will continue slouching our way to disaster.
There can be no military solution to the dilemma posed, when millions in the South are within rang of North Korean artillery. Perhaps, instead, we could open negotiations with the DPRK and actually write a peace treaty. It would replace a 65 year old armistice that has not delivered any real, lasting peace to the North or South of Korea. Instead, it created a bête noir for the Kim Dynasty to feed the DPRK's national insecurity and focus the intrinsic pride of its people.. Such a treaty might include economic assistance or foreign aid, agricultural consultation, etc., as well as open the borders to tourism and trade. Let the people of the DPRK see what others have. Then perhaps they may begin to desire the same for themselves, not unlike what is happening in Cuba, after an impotent 55 year embargo.
Otherwise, we will continue slouching our way to disaster.
20
It worked with China.
Oh, don't forget the tyrant in Russia, Putin.
He gets to watch North Korea bully the US, in a way that is embarrassing to the US and also gives him time to build his own military and get his cyberbullies and others in place to steal even more land and power from his neighbors.
I think Putin has a plan, one that requires a weakened America with Trump in charge, and one that allows him to thrust the dagger deep into his enemies.
I fear the tyrant Putin as the greatest enemy this America faces, and see the degradation of American power and disintegration of American friendships as his tool to the rising of the Russian Oligarchic power structure.
Hugh Massengill, Eugene Oregon
He gets to watch North Korea bully the US, in a way that is embarrassing to the US and also gives him time to build his own military and get his cyberbullies and others in place to steal even more land and power from his neighbors.
I think Putin has a plan, one that requires a weakened America with Trump in charge, and one that allows him to thrust the dagger deep into his enemies.
I fear the tyrant Putin as the greatest enemy this America faces, and see the degradation of American power and disintegration of American friendships as his tool to the rising of the Russian Oligarchic power structure.
Hugh Massengill, Eugene Oregon
43
If you want to talk of tyrants, Kim's a piker. Putin and the Russian bunch put him to shame by every measure. Others do, too. And the tyrant oligarchs are a global bunch, a cabal with dreams of the world as its deregulated oyster, you might say. To people with billions to spend and ambitions for conquest (the old siren song of the bloody conquerors, still sounding in the ears of men besotted with wealth and hubris), national borders aren't much, say Trump what he will of those. He feels more kinship with other dictators than with democratic leaders, that's been patent for a while. That's why he's praised Kim, and Saddam Hussein, and Putin, while scorning leaders of democratic governments who are allies of our land. Trump would love to be a billionaire oligarch; if he could be useful enough to its members now, he might have a shot at joining that club. That appeals to Trump more than any good outcome for Americans, who are losers in his view, anyway. He's the god in his own religion. If his fans knew what he thinks of them, they wouldn't be fans for long. And Kim's not a scary fellow at all, compared to Kim Il Trump.
Excellent analysys, now help us understand the hegemony issues that motivate the US, China and Russia and what we lose by ceding the Pacific to others.
I'm thinking the gods will enact retribution for the transgression of hubris, rather than for immorality. It is obvious immorality has become the new norm.
Hubris appears to be moving up in the charts. Carnage has become run of the mill. But the gods are vainful. The wheel of fortune can just as easily topple those above as it can crush those down below.
How about a little justice?
Hubris appears to be moving up in the charts. Carnage has become run of the mill. But the gods are vainful. The wheel of fortune can just as easily topple those above as it can crush those down below.
How about a little justice?
Imagine yourself a Republican operative.
Assignment: create imaginary enemies to stir up needless fear.
Purpose: distract the rubes while another tax cut is bestowed upon the 1%. You gotta pick a pocket , or two.
Model: the Iraq "wars."
Reward: free yellow ribbons.
Mission accomplished.
Assignment: create imaginary enemies to stir up needless fear.
Purpose: distract the rubes while another tax cut is bestowed upon the 1%. You gotta pick a pocket , or two.
Model: the Iraq "wars."
Reward: free yellow ribbons.
Mission accomplished.
1
The behind-the-scenes manipulator is known to those who need to know. Not me, not you, not any reader of news. This is one of the situations that prove news and commentary show just the tip of the iceberg. The truth is 5 km below the surface, in the rarefied world of super-secret information.
Probably the best thing for in incompetent competitor is an incompetent opponent.
Kim has got that in trumpsky.
Kim has got that in trumpsky.
2
So Bret what exactly is your point? This very bad young guy who has a country under his thumb and has created a political stalemate with the Divided States of America is surviving because of his usefulness to China? And?
So Kim Jong-un may survive for a while longer as leader of NK and " we" may have to adapt to that reality. We have adapted quite well to the reality of Russia having nuclear capabilities far more dangerous to our existence. We have adapted to the criminal who leads Russia ( and may have even worked with him in our own elections).
The people of NK are stuck with their looney leader just as the Divide States is stuck with their's. It's not up to US to control the world. If Kim -Jong-un actually steps out line, I'm confident he'll be taken care of, if not by his own people at some point, then by US for an appropriate reason.
Your article is an example of the fear mongering which the US media thrives on. Today's boogeyman is Jong-un, tomorrow it will be Iran. And on it goes, always something or someone to fear. Try discussing how we should adapt to a nuclear NK rather than portraying their clever leader as just another evil clever leader.
So Kim Jong-un may survive for a while longer as leader of NK and " we" may have to adapt to that reality. We have adapted quite well to the reality of Russia having nuclear capabilities far more dangerous to our existence. We have adapted to the criminal who leads Russia ( and may have even worked with him in our own elections).
The people of NK are stuck with their looney leader just as the Divide States is stuck with their's. It's not up to US to control the world. If Kim -Jong-un actually steps out line, I'm confident he'll be taken care of, if not by his own people at some point, then by US for an appropriate reason.
Your article is an example of the fear mongering which the US media thrives on. Today's boogeyman is Jong-un, tomorrow it will be Iran. And on it goes, always something or someone to fear. Try discussing how we should adapt to a nuclear NK rather than portraying their clever leader as just another evil clever leader.
30
The USA knew for years that he was "all in" building his nuclear power. The last two administrations simply looked the other way and hoped for the best. Our "experts" kept saying that North Korea was many years away from the possibility of inflicting damage from a nuclear attack.
Our lesson in all of this ...never underestimate the will and power of a madman!
Our lesson in all of this ...never underestimate the will and power of a madman!
34
Looking the other way makes it sound like there was some alternative available and I doubt if anyone has underestimated the extent of Kim Jong-un's madness nor his desire to be a world power. But what do you do with a madman who doesn't seem to have a healthy enough fear of his own mortality?
1
Their programs were slowed by Clinton and Obama. It was bush ii who ignored them, and t rump who prods them on.
Madman? I think this column tells us that is exactly what he is not.
"Whoever is helping you make such astonishing progress in your missile and nuclear programs clearly wants to use you to change the game, too."
Yes, I wonder how that "whoever" is--although I have very strong suspicions.
Brett Stephens, I think you've pretty well summed up the state of the Kim Jong-un versus Trump game plan. We underestimate the North Korean tyrant at our peril, just as we risk overestimating our own home-grown tyrant who's administration presents a cacophony of options but no unified voice.
Yes, I wonder how that "whoever" is--although I have very strong suspicions.
Brett Stephens, I think you've pretty well summed up the state of the Kim Jong-un versus Trump game plan. We underestimate the North Korean tyrant at our peril, just as we risk overestimating our own home-grown tyrant who's administration presents a cacophony of options but no unified voice.
81
"Whoever" is not a secret. The new powerful reliable rocket engines come from a factory in the Russian-ruled area of Ukraine. Obviously this would have to be ordered by Putin, whom Trump admires.
5
What everyone on the planet is hoping is that the North Korean crisis has established - at least within the Trump administration - that Donald Trump is not actually the president of the United States.
Trump might be living in the White House with Secret Service guards, and his Cabinet members and the Joint Chiefs might still stand up when he walks into the room, but what we have to assume, or at least hope, is that there is now a clear understanding between all these other people that Donald Trump is not actually in command of the nation's armed services - particularly the nuclear weapons (are they still part of SAC? Does SAC actually still exist?)
This is at least what I think. It goes a bit beyond hope, because I think Trump is very obviously mentally unfit to hold elected office and I am just assuming that the former and current generals who now staff Trump's administration and the Joint Chiefs of Staff positions are intelligent, reasonable men and they know that Trump cannot be trusted with the authority to start a nuclear attack of any kind in any circumstances.
So he can still inflict grievous damage on the American economy - the world economy for that matter - and on the lives of ordinary Americans, especially those who aren't White Americans - but the real, immediate danger of a catastrophic nuclear exchange has faded out in an at least tacit exchange of nods and winks. Thank God!