If Trump told Xi Jinping that we will help you to resolve your Taiwan problem, Beijing may willing to help Trump's North Korea problem. No o ne knows what is the best solution to deal with Kim Jong-Um but Trump should try every possible approach including China's Taiwan headache. America is the number one friend of Taiwan. Tsai probably will consider everything to keep the friendship with America including the recognition of 1992 consensus.
2
Another brilliant piece in today's NYT. What an excellent historical analysis to bring us to today. If the strategical analysis of each of the countries involved is accurate, strangely enough, I actually feel better that we'll all get through it okay.
Thank you Ms. Perlez.
Thank you Ms. Perlez.
4
My fear is that Trump will through his ignorance and blundering lead us into war. In the past, we have had presidents who met such challenges with understanding and courage. Those days are past, and the current occupant addresses each problem by asking himself, what's in it for me.
1
China only engages in behavior that promotes its long term goals, world domination. If you interpreted Chinas behavior through this lens things are clearer. China wouldn't mind if the US and NK nuked it out, leaving them the ultimate winner. China controls NK, that's obvious. But, China thinks no one notices.
2
Sorry I'm late to the party but I just want to say that this is an incredibly informative article and I wish to bestow many kudos on Jane Perlez.
Hopefully, even though the typical NY Times reader obviously prefers to comment (and comment and comment) on button-pushing articles about our current dear leader and not on articles that inform about important matters in other parts of the world (I see all of 14 comments on this piece) that, nonetheless, many readers did at least click on this article so that the powers-that-be at The Times know that this kind of reporting is appreciated by those of us who wish to remain informed about something other than why we should fear and hate Donald Trump.
Frankly, though, if readers didn't click then I fear not only for the future of reporting like this, I fear for the future of our country as it then proves that even allegedly sophisticated NY Times readers couldn't be bothered to inform themselves unless ... well, it pushed a visceral button.
Hopefully, even though the typical NY Times reader obviously prefers to comment (and comment and comment) on button-pushing articles about our current dear leader and not on articles that inform about important matters in other parts of the world (I see all of 14 comments on this piece) that, nonetheless, many readers did at least click on this article so that the powers-that-be at The Times know that this kind of reporting is appreciated by those of us who wish to remain informed about something other than why we should fear and hate Donald Trump.
Frankly, though, if readers didn't click then I fear not only for the future of reporting like this, I fear for the future of our country as it then proves that even allegedly sophisticated NY Times readers couldn't be bothered to inform themselves unless ... well, it pushed a visceral button.
6
Though Russia has a few more missiles in stock than the U.S., President Trump has ordered more nuclear implements. There is no doubt that the U.S. is well prepared in nuclear armaments.
There are options in regards to North Korea's angry communist dictator. The option of firing nuclear missiles into North Korea is not necessary because North Korea's missiles will not reach the U.S. (at least not immediately). Notice how well fed this fat communist dictator is while his skinny troops march doing the Adolph Hitler Nazi goose step while his people starve.
The biggest fear is that the communist N. Korean dictator will lob a missile to hit Guam, Hawaii, Japan, Russia, or China. That will get everyone sending missiles everywhere including here to the U.S.
The best option I think is to mass the U.S. troops in South Korea and attack North Korea (in conventional warfare). However, I believe China already told the U.S. not to do that, and dangerous Russia (not our buddy) will begin pushing buttons once this nuclear fight gets started. I don't know if communist N. Korean dictator will order missiles to blow up N. Korea due to his Nazi Germanic nature.
It would be nice if we had the backing of Russia and China. We'll see if this serious conflict will be resolved or end up in a global nuclear holocaust and murder 7.5 billion humans on earth.
There are options in regards to North Korea's angry communist dictator. The option of firing nuclear missiles into North Korea is not necessary because North Korea's missiles will not reach the U.S. (at least not immediately). Notice how well fed this fat communist dictator is while his skinny troops march doing the Adolph Hitler Nazi goose step while his people starve.
The biggest fear is that the communist N. Korean dictator will lob a missile to hit Guam, Hawaii, Japan, Russia, or China. That will get everyone sending missiles everywhere including here to the U.S.
The best option I think is to mass the U.S. troops in South Korea and attack North Korea (in conventional warfare). However, I believe China already told the U.S. not to do that, and dangerous Russia (not our buddy) will begin pushing buttons once this nuclear fight gets started. I don't know if communist N. Korean dictator will order missiles to blow up N. Korea due to his Nazi Germanic nature.
It would be nice if we had the backing of Russia and China. We'll see if this serious conflict will be resolved or end up in a global nuclear holocaust and murder 7.5 billion humans on earth.
An excellent, nuanced analysis of the problem China and the world face. What the the chances of our own Dear Leader reading and comprehending it? Somewhere between zero and none.
18
The U.S would not want China interfering in the Western Hemisphere. I Understand China's concern on the Korean Peninsula. It is not to Anyone's best interest the Signals Kim Jong -un is sending. There must be a way for the U.S. and China come to a diplomatic end to all this Madness. China does not want War the U.S. does not want War. I don't believe our Alis want to see a war. I do believe if everyone come to the table truly looking to avoid War then a settlement can be reached.
North Korea's nuclear arsenal is part of China's path to power. It's meant to be used as a bargaining chip to get the US and South Korea to dismantle the the THAAD missile defense system. North Korea doesn't take any action without getting a green light fro Beijing first, and the Chinese line that they are unable to reign in Kim is a lie. North Korea is their client state, they can almost certainly force it to give up its nuclear weapons and come to the negotiating table. The Chinese have told Kim he's free to do whatever he wants short of starting a war and the Chinese will have his back.
2
I don't think I agree. There are some leaders of nations that are so headstrong and narcissistic, like Kim, that no one is able to rein them in.
Any additional hardships on an already impoverished nation will likely be interpreted by the state-run media as simply more evidence that more sacrifice is required because North Korea is surrounded by enemies.
Any additional hardships on an already impoverished nation will likely be interpreted by the state-run media as simply more evidence that more sacrifice is required because North Korea is surrounded by enemies.
Does China really want to be a superpower? Who said that? I mean, is there any official documents that says China wants to be a superpower? Perhaps, it were only NY Time's imagination?
It is building a blue water navy of considerable size including a large submarine force. It is the world's workshop. It has a population 1.3 billion. It is a nuclear power. It holds a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. In short, it is already a super power.
China already is a superpower. They are economically, militarily, and technologically. And they are the third country to send a lander to the moon.
How and why Pakistan a proxy to China gets away with so much is beyond me? The crime of Sheltering OBL should have been used as a golden opportunity to dismantle that country's nuclear arms. Then there is the continuing crime of providing refuge to terrorist organizations both in the past and present. This is mostly undermining the US fight to stabilize Afghanistan.
One must feel that it's not only China that wants to help that rogue country for strategic reasons. Billions in aid and turning a blind eye to Pakistan's continued betrayal must be United States' charm offensive.
One must feel that it's not only China that wants to help that rogue country for strategic reasons. Billions in aid and turning a blind eye to Pakistan's continued betrayal must be United States' charm offensive.
8
True, but we should also ask why a nightmare misogynist, terror-inspiring country like Saudi Arabia is a US ally.
2
It is unfortunate the United States has such a bumbling buffoon leading our nation. While the political situation in Asia remains complex, a workable solution remains within reach if a coherent policy were employed. But Trump (and Kim) share the worst of human traits.
The US and China are now so deeply intertwined through trade that it is almost unbelievable that we are still at impossible odds militarily. Surely, the US could offer assurances if China and the US were to cooperate in a reunification effort and finally put an end to the Korean War.
Both the US and China must engage negotiations that recognize first and foremost that our backs are against the wall. There is no more "someday this and someday that". The time is here and now since it is apparent that a very grave military engagement is the only other option.
In the end the US needs to offer a reduced military presence in the region but China must also recognize that regime change in the North is essential.
Meanwhile, the US is empowering China by engaging in substantial trade while China in turn empowers the North via trade. We must do better given the consequences.
The US and China are now so deeply intertwined through trade that it is almost unbelievable that we are still at impossible odds militarily. Surely, the US could offer assurances if China and the US were to cooperate in a reunification effort and finally put an end to the Korean War.
Both the US and China must engage negotiations that recognize first and foremost that our backs are against the wall. There is no more "someday this and someday that". The time is here and now since it is apparent that a very grave military engagement is the only other option.
In the end the US needs to offer a reduced military presence in the region but China must also recognize that regime change in the North is essential.
Meanwhile, the US is empowering China by engaging in substantial trade while China in turn empowers the North via trade. We must do better given the consequences.
3
China wants to be seen as a world power. If it cannot reign in North Korea, it will lend credence to the fears of India and Japan that China is not a power that is capable of bringing stability, but simply another country intent on a power grab.
China should invite North Korea's Kim to Beijing for 'Urgent Consultations' and then make sure he never leaves. In the meantime, a new more malleable government, can be installed in North Korea, with Chinese advisors to help during the transition. China can then extract a quid pro quo from the west for dealing with North Korea.
Its messy but it gets both sides what they want: China wants stability on its borders and the west wants the mad man Kim away from nuclear weapons. For those who are 'shocked, shocked I tell you' that something like this would be proposed, it has been done before, and diplomacy has failed. The military has told everyone that any confrontation with North Korea will result in millions dead on both sides. It is time for a non-conventional solution, this is one possibility.
China should invite North Korea's Kim to Beijing for 'Urgent Consultations' and then make sure he never leaves. In the meantime, a new more malleable government, can be installed in North Korea, with Chinese advisors to help during the transition. China can then extract a quid pro quo from the west for dealing with North Korea.
Its messy but it gets both sides what they want: China wants stability on its borders and the west wants the mad man Kim away from nuclear weapons. For those who are 'shocked, shocked I tell you' that something like this would be proposed, it has been done before, and diplomacy has failed. The military has told everyone that any confrontation with North Korea will result in millions dead on both sides. It is time for a non-conventional solution, this is one possibility.
16
I agree with Bruce - China's taking over of North Korea would help the North Korean citizens, allay China's border concerns, bolster China's presence in Asia, and force North Korea to give up its nuclear arms.
Can North Korean citizens really be opposed to such steps? Their lives would almost certainly improve.
Can North Korean citizens really be opposed to such steps? Their lives would almost certainly improve.
3
I am not sure Kim is that gullible.
North Korea's leader is not stupid enough to go to China for negotiations. Provoking the world via the US with his nuclear weapons is the only ace he has in this game.
I will take it with pinch of salt that China is headed for superpower status displacing America.
It takes more than a rising economic status to establish a global hegemony.
Even though China has been the "factory of the world" and then as "bridge builder of the world"--its capacity for economic reform is questionable, and its financial sector remains far less developed than that of the Western world. Constraints associated with deeply embedded government involvement in the economy threaten the future of the country.
The spread of soft power alone does not guarantee the rise to superpower status. Presence of soft power abroad without strong domestic institutions does not add up.. "For example, China’s own lack of legal enforcement may not play out well along OBOR, resulting in corruption or project non-viability, particularly since many of the nations in which it will invest have poor legal frameworks themselves. Also China’s ongoing capital controls and lack of financial liberalization hinder internationalization of the RMB, which makes RMB financing of global projects less attractive" says a recent write up in Forbes.
U.S. had a tremendous global support after World War II, which provided it to become the world’s anchor of economic stability.
China does enjoy this type of backing at all around the world.
It takes more than a rising economic status to establish a global hegemony.
Even though China has been the "factory of the world" and then as "bridge builder of the world"--its capacity for economic reform is questionable, and its financial sector remains far less developed than that of the Western world. Constraints associated with deeply embedded government involvement in the economy threaten the future of the country.
The spread of soft power alone does not guarantee the rise to superpower status. Presence of soft power abroad without strong domestic institutions does not add up.. "For example, China’s own lack of legal enforcement may not play out well along OBOR, resulting in corruption or project non-viability, particularly since many of the nations in which it will invest have poor legal frameworks themselves. Also China’s ongoing capital controls and lack of financial liberalization hinder internationalization of the RMB, which makes RMB financing of global projects less attractive" says a recent write up in Forbes.
U.S. had a tremendous global support after World War II, which provided it to become the world’s anchor of economic stability.
China does enjoy this type of backing at all around the world.
1
But Phillip C. Saunders, the director of the Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs at the National Defense University, said they [i e, Chinese scholars and retired military officers] usually emphasized two well-worn points:
The North Korean government is stable, and China’s influence over North Korea is limited.' However 'well-worn' these points, they correspond to to the situation in Korea, in so far as it is understood, and thus provide a basis for policy, unlike less 'well-worn' points which do not....
Today, it is only the United States government which can ameliorate the tensions on the Korean peninsula, by reaching out to its counterpart in the DPRK and entering into serious negotiations to regulate relations between the two states and ultimately, to replace the Armistice Agreement of 27 July 1953 with a treaty of peace between them. A beginning as made with the so-called 'Agreed Framework', signed on 21 October 1994 which, while hardly trouble free, worked relatively well until G W Bush sabotaged it by, in his state of the union message to the US congress on 29 January 2002, referring to the DPRK as a member of a putative 'axis of evil' and failing to live up to US commitments, which led on 10 January 2003 to the DPRK's withdrawal from the NPT, to which it had acceded in 1985....
The dangerous tensions existing on the Korean peninsula can only be reduced through negotiations between the DPRK and the US....
Henri
The North Korean government is stable, and China’s influence over North Korea is limited.' However 'well-worn' these points, they correspond to to the situation in Korea, in so far as it is understood, and thus provide a basis for policy, unlike less 'well-worn' points which do not....
Today, it is only the United States government which can ameliorate the tensions on the Korean peninsula, by reaching out to its counterpart in the DPRK and entering into serious negotiations to regulate relations between the two states and ultimately, to replace the Armistice Agreement of 27 July 1953 with a treaty of peace between them. A beginning as made with the so-called 'Agreed Framework', signed on 21 October 1994 which, while hardly trouble free, worked relatively well until G W Bush sabotaged it by, in his state of the union message to the US congress on 29 January 2002, referring to the DPRK as a member of a putative 'axis of evil' and failing to live up to US commitments, which led on 10 January 2003 to the DPRK's withdrawal from the NPT, to which it had acceded in 1985....
The dangerous tensions existing on the Korean peninsula can only be reduced through negotiations between the DPRK and the US....
Henri
11
An earlier example of republicans taking a destructive action out of spite over a successful popular democratic president. As I recall "envy" is one of the seven deadly sins.
2
No one doubts that the North Korean leader, like that of the current US leader, are men who possess any true sense of country first. For men like Trump and Kim Jung Un, human beings are nothing more than vehicles that transport them to ultimate power.
Now, even Putin has begun to realize that hitching his wagon to Donald Trump was a huge mistake. Not once has Trump mentioned what Russia can do to deal with North Korea, even though over decades North Koreans have fled over their borders to China and Russia due to massive North Korean starvation.
While Trump sits on his throne high and mighty, he knows full well he has every human being on the Asian Peninsula on tenterhooks waiting to see who will drop the big one first: Trump or Kim Jung Un.
Any fool who believes Trump has EVER had a shred of sense of diplomacy is fooling themselves. He is only after autonomous control, massive celebrity face time, pointing and delegating to a catatonic Republican Majority and then when it all goes bad, the Ambassador to Russia, Trump, will blame everyone but himself for decisions he made and for inciting a mentally unstable leader.
Just what you want for a US leader. A lunatic duking it out with another lunatic.
Now, even Putin has begun to realize that hitching his wagon to Donald Trump was a huge mistake. Not once has Trump mentioned what Russia can do to deal with North Korea, even though over decades North Koreans have fled over their borders to China and Russia due to massive North Korean starvation.
While Trump sits on his throne high and mighty, he knows full well he has every human being on the Asian Peninsula on tenterhooks waiting to see who will drop the big one first: Trump or Kim Jung Un.
Any fool who believes Trump has EVER had a shred of sense of diplomacy is fooling themselves. He is only after autonomous control, massive celebrity face time, pointing and delegating to a catatonic Republican Majority and then when it all goes bad, the Ambassador to Russia, Trump, will blame everyone but himself for decisions he made and for inciting a mentally unstable leader.
Just what you want for a US leader. A lunatic duking it out with another lunatic.
6
Superb summary of reasons behind China's dilly dallying and for informed engagement with China. Required reading for Secretary Tillerson and Ambassador Haley and anyone in the White House who understands the need for quiet diplomacy.
1
China looks angry to NK. But, remember that China has always taken objection to the international sanctions against NK.
NK is not only an obstacle but also a powerful tool for the ambitions of China.
If NK is allowed to have nuc missiles, South Korea will be absorbed by NK very soon. Already, President Moon Jae-in is known as a sympathizer of communism, and speaks out that SK should be integrated under the control of NK.
NK is not only an obstacle but also a powerful tool for the ambitions of China.
If NK is allowed to have nuc missiles, South Korea will be absorbed by NK very soon. Already, President Moon Jae-in is known as a sympathizer of communism, and speaks out that SK should be integrated under the control of NK.
NK is not remotely 'communist'. It is one man eating everyone else's lunch. & South Koreans look pretty capitalist, tho perhaps less insanely so that US Republicans.