Southwest Rises as 2018 Senate Battleground

Aug 17, 2017 · 33 comments
HW Keiser (Alberta, VA)
There is a precedent for "free college" Ms Sinema, it was the GI Bill. Ushered in about 40 years of tremendous economic growth. You should look it up before you dismiss it out of hand. Schumer's choice, huh?
P.V. Hackett (Bridgewater, VA)
The G.I. Bill was in and still is return for military service. Not open to everyone.
patrick ryan (Goshen, NY)
Trump's base of support are white racists. He knew this before the election as well as now, In the midwest battleground states, it was these same racists, that were so angry and could not accept that an African American President served two terms. Their votes were primarily responsible for putting Trump in the White House, This group includes white evangelicals, anti-immigration and strong law and order supporters. The vast majority of these individuals are not honest enough or inclined to admit their racist values and bigotry.
It appears that the generals are in charge now of the White House, as Trump was forced to axe Bannon who supported many of these racist policies. With the latest terrorist attack in Barcelona, Trump and many of his generals will get most Americans to turn away from the racial issues that is deeply dividing the country, The fear will be pumped up and the majority of Americans will rally round the flag, especially in many of the states that Trump seemed vulnerable.
Lou Panico (Linden NJ)
Republicans have nothing to worry about. FOX news watching nation will come through and vote against their best interests and keep Republicans in power. I would not be surprised if they extend their majorities in both Houses of Congress. After all we did elect Trump.
James (Flagstaff, AZ)
I live and vote in Arizona. It is unbelievable to me that a potential Democratic candidate would prepare her campaign by attacking national Democrats "for moving too far to the left" at a time when we have an apologist for Nazis and racism as president. Krysten Sinema's words should disqualify her as a candidate now. We don't need more losers. I don't see free college tuition or single payer health care as smart or achievable goals right now, although single payer could be a long-term goal. Why start, though, by attacking goals popular with the Democratic base? Why not, at least, show that you share the aspirations behind those goals? For example, Democrats could rally around the idea of buying into Medicare. That's something achievable, and that could be seriously debated in the context of Obamacare fixes. It could also be paired with efforts to allow former employees or others to retain employer-based private insurance indefinitely after losing a job. The point is that Democrats can't run against their national party, and they can't run by running down the aspirations of their base. Secretary Clinton did this over and over again in debates with Senator Sanders. It wasn't enough for her to argue against single payer or free tuition (I fully understand her positions), but she went further to suggest repeatedly that we should all be "realistic" and damp down high expectations. I don't want liars and demagogues, but I also don't want candidates whose slogan is "No, we can't".
Erika (Atlanta, GA)
"Why start, though, by attacking goals popular with the Democratic base?"

Because they are not goals supported by the entire Democratic base. They're popular with the Bernie base - who has no idea how to pay for these goals or get them passed. How can Democrats pass anything even close to single-payer or free college tuition if they don't have control of the House and Senate and the governor's offices?

Yet it's the Our Revolution folks who are willing to overlook President Trump's terrible actions and sacrifice the Democrats - who could pass reasonable proposals in the long-term if in office - if they don't get exactly (that's the key, there is no compromise on THEIR issues) what they want.

July Kaiser Poll on single payer, which polled Democrats and Republicans:

"When those who initially say they favor a single-payer or Medicare-for-all plan are asked how they would feel if they heard that such a plan would give the government too much control over health care, about four in ten (21 percent of the public overall) say they would change their mind and would now oppose the plan, pushing total opposition up to 62 percent. Similarly, when this group is told such a plan would require many Americans to pay more in taxes or that it would eliminate or replace the Affordable Care Act, total opposition increases to 60 percent and 53 percent, respectively."

http://www.kff.org/health-reform/poll-finding/data-note-modestly-strong-...
James (Flagstaff, AZ)
I don't see Georgia as a national model for enacting Democratic policies, but that's just me. The Kaiser Poll you show proves nothing. If people are asked such a leading question ("would single-payer give the government TOO MUCH [my emphasis] control over health care"), of course they'll change their mind. Candidly, the tone of your own remarks says a lot about where the divisions in the Democratic party come from, and how they are fueled
Erika (Atlanta, GA)
"The Kaiser Poll you show proves nothing. If people are asked such a leading question ("would single-payer give the government TOO MUCH [my emphasis] control over health care"), of course they'll change their mind."

This poll asked those leading questions after they asked it "straight", to see if the response changed. The initial response was "Kaiser Health Tracking poll finds that a slim majority of the public (53 percent) now favors a single-payer health plan in which all Americans would get their insurance from a single government plan, while just over four in ten (43 percent) are opposed."

What asking it differently pointed out in the poll was how quickly support for an issue can change. Republicans are masters at this - be aware that they won't present this issue wrapped up in a shiny, happy bow for voters become some Democrats would like them to.
Michael (Brooklyn)
Even with Trump's presidency going down in flames, I am skeptical of Democrat's ability to take advantage of the Republicans' inability to govern. Republicans may have their internal squabbles, but when it comes to defeating Democrats and their allies, they close ranks and vote the party line. Democrats are not that way. They are incredibly disorganized and are very picky about who they get behind. They want candidates who are blatantly liberal and who have charisma. A conservative democrat like Kyrsten Sinema will not motivate them, and she might as well not even bother running.
Tom (Irvine)
So Chuck Schumer is involved with determining who the best Senatorial candidates are in Arizona and is putting Democrat money behind the centrist? Gosh, that sounds like a good plan!
Luboman411 (NY, NY)
I truly hope Flake is thrown out by the Trumpist firebrands in the GOP primaries, and that a far-right figure like Kelli Ward is chosen. That greatly increases the probability that in the general election the Democratic contender for that Senate seat wins.

In fact, I hope that the GOP is seized by those grass-root Trumpist warriors and they vote out all the "Establishment bums" in the GOP primaries, and that far-right fringe figures are chosen. Trumpists have a uncanny gift of electing the most unpalatable people for general Congressional elections. Makes it all the easier for Democrats to retake the House, or even the Senate. It even happened in 2016--why do you think Democrats still got 2 extra Senate seats and 7 extra House rep seats despite lackluster enthusiasm for Clinton? Because too many unelectable far-right people made it on the GOP ballots.

And let's not forget that minorities and liberal/Democratic voters are surging in places like NC, FL, TX and GA, in addition to AZ. If the demographics there shift enough before 2020 (old white Trump voters dying with few young voters replacing them, new minority voters surging, liberal/Democratic transplants growing), then the Democrats can still retain PA, MI and WI (Trump won those by the skin of his teeth) and win with one or two of those states above.

Choosing far-right fringe figures on top of an angry anti-Trump wave election, and we could be seeing some really bad news for the GOP. It may shape up to
RLS (PA)
“No Arizona Democrat has won a Senate seat since the fall of the Berlin Wall.”

The problem is that voters, candidates, and election administrators have no way of knowing if the vote counts are accurate when we count our votes in “secret.” Our ballots, the memory cards, and source code have been deemed to be “corporate property.” We don't conduct banking without transparency and a verifiable process, so why are we putting blind faith in secret vote counts?

Germany, Ireland, Austria, the UK, Canada, and other countries count their votes by hand. An Austrian court ordered a re-do of their presidential election because some ballots were counted without observers present.

Victoria Collier: How to Rig an Election – The G.O.P. Aims to Paint the Country Red https://harpers.org/archive/2012/11/how-to-rig-an-election/

“It is Germany, however, that has now become the standard-bearer for clean elections. In 2009, that nation’s constitutional court upheld the basic principle of the public nature of democratic elections. By ruling that the vote count must be something the public can authenticate—and without any specialized expertise—the decision directly challenged the use of computers in elections.

“Ireland followed suit in June 2012, sending all its electronic voting machines to the scrap heap. Minister for the Environment Phil Hogan called the computerized voting system a poorly conceived, scandalous waste of money."

#DemocracyDemandsTransparentVoteCounting
#HandCountedBallotsNow!
Syd (Hampton Bays, N.Y.)
Absolutely! Incredibly important. A phrase has always resonated with me that I believe goes back to the Soviet Union: Who votes does not matter. Who counts the votes matters!
Erika (Atlanta, GA)
"Ms. Sinema said a Democrat would have to campaign in a virtually nonpartisan way to win a Senate race, and she criticized national Democrats for moving too far to the left. She described liberal promises of free college and single-payer health care as “just not real.”

Countdown 3-2-1! to the "Berniecrats" declaring opposition to her or any candidate who can be described as a centrist. It's fascinating that for Berniecrats, candidates who oppose abortion - not in beliefs, but in actual legislative votes - are just fine; in their minds, the working class (whom most of them don't know or belong to) likes that. But opposition to single-payer? You're "corporate" and you're outta here.

The Bernie Bros and sisters are coming to Republicans’ rescue: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-bernie-bros-and-sisters-are-...

"They’re sowing division in the Democratic Party and attempting to enact a purge of the ideologically impure — just the sort of thing that made the Republican Party the ungovernable mess it is today."

"Democrats need to pick up 24 seats to take control of the House, yet there are only 23 Republicans in districts won by Clinton — and only eight of those were won by President Barack Obama in 2012. There are a dozen Democrats in districts Trump won. In such swing districts, it would be suicidal to pledge support for something Republicans will brand as socialism."
RLS (PA)
“[Kyrsten Sinema] described liberal promises of free college and single-payer health care as ‘just not real.’”

We wouldn’t have Social Security and Medicare today if people like Ms. Sinema were in Congress during the passage of legislation put forth by FDR and LBJ. A centrist Democrat is code for a corporate Democrat. I am very proud to be a strong supporter of Bernie Sanders, a person of integrity who supports policy that will help the vast majority of the American people.
Erika (Atlanta, GA)
"I am very proud to be a strong supporter of Bernie Sanders, a person of integrity who supports policy that will help the vast majority of the American people."

Please note that many of the most vocal and active people who support Bernie Sanders support...Bernie Sanders the man, not Democrats. Sen. Sanders remains an Independent.

The Democratic Party would be much better off ignoring them (notice they won't form a third-party when they have the Our Revolution infrastructure that was set up to do so). Instead they're trying to hold the Democrats hostage to their demands, such as the recent announcement that Our Revolution won't support a Democrat who isn't in favor of single payer. How does that help anyone? Democrats have a better chance of attracting some moderate, affluent Republicans and some Obama voters who voted Trump than Sanders acolytes. Democrats aren't going to get the Sanders people's vote - unless they accept each and every one of their demands & their handpicked candidates across the nation, even if those candidates don't fit that area.

Why bother with their demands? They're not winning. From the Post article I linked above: "Candidates backed by Our Revolution have lost 31 races in 2017 and won 16 — and the victories include “Portland Community College Director, Zone 5” and “South Fulton (Ga.) City Council 6.”

Winning local races is important for Democrats but it's quite clear that Our Revolution isn't exactly tearing up the charts as a hit everywhere.
RLS (PA)
“Please note that many of the most vocal and active people who support Bernie Sanders support...Bernie Sanders the man, not Democrats. Sen. Sanders remains an Independent.”

Erika, you make the arguments of a blind party loyalist, not a good thing. Actually, Bernie is the real Democrat (an FDR Democrat) because the corporate Democrats are beholden to their big money donors.

“From the Post article I linked above: “Candidates backed by Our Revolution have lost 31 races in 2017 and won 16 — and the victories include ‘Portland Community College Director, Zone 5’ and ‘South Fulton (Ga.) City Council 6.’”

The corporate Democrats lost “1,000 seats” during Obama’s two terms, the most seats lost by far during a president’s tenure.
Princeton 2015 (Princeton, NJ)
1. General - The tenor of the article is skewed. The title refers to the "Southwest Senate Races". NV is not in the Southwest. More broadly, the article makes it sound like AZ and NV are the key states. But more generally, the question for Dems is whether they can hold the 5 states where Trump won by > 20 points yet have a Dem Senator - MO, MS, MT, WV, IN.

2. Nevada - The article refers to "Nevada as a model for winning over a once-red state." That's pretty dated. Dems have won 5 of the last 7 Presidential elections in NV. In many ways, NV has all the earmarks of a blue state. For the first time in 2016, whites are now a minority. And much of the population revolves around a big city (Las Vegas) - also a heavily unionized town which favors Dems.

3. Trump - But Arizona is a different story. It's pretty disingenuous for the NYT to portray Woods (a protege of McCain) as reflective of the Republican party. "Grant Woods, a former state attorney general who is close to Mr. McCain, said he had been dismayed by Mr. Flake’s stance on health care." McCain has always been a rebel - except on the issue he cares most about - the military.

4. Dem Schism - I was pleased to hear the words of Ms. Sinema who said "a Dem would have to campaign in a virtually nonpartisan way ... she criticized national Democrats for moving too far to the left. She described liberal promises of free college and single-payer health care as “just not real.” Where are more Dems like her ?
Michael (Brooklyn)
I would disagree on point number 4. Hillary lost because she failed to energize her base who perceived her as not liberal enough and lacking any core beliefs. A triangulator like Sinema would have at least as much difficulty turning out liberals to vote for her. Today's Democrats do not want a milquetoast candidate with conservative views. If they did, they'd vote Republican.
LaylaS (Chicago, IL)
Assuming Bernie Sanders and his followers don't throw a monkey wrench into the works, as they did in 2016 and now in Sacramento.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/nation-world/national/article167344787.html
CA Dreamer (Ca)
It is irrelevant anyways. Our government is broken and can probably never be fixed. As long as states with less than .5 percent of the population of the U.S. have the same weight in the Senate and more weight per person in the House than a state with 12 % of the population this government is a failure. Throw in the electoral college and every vote has even less weight. The entire government is broken and we are on our way to a civil war.
Chris (Louisville)
I hope you don't get a single seat, Democrats. We see your violent behavior on nightly television.
Llewis (N Cal)
Which television is that? The Charlottesville people are Trump supporters. Trump is a Republican. I believe you are misinformed.
Karen (<br/>)
So the violent fringe of the left now represents all Democrats? Nice broad brush you're painting with, there! I don't assume all Republicans are White Supremacists. We don't get anywhere in our discussions and understanding with blanket condemnations such as yours.
Grindelwald (Boston Mass)
Partisan politics is tribal, so I wouldn't expect big changes overnight. Still the Southwest is culturally quite distinct from the South and Southeast, so some gradual divergence seems possible.
In particular, the Southwest states were not full members of the Confederacy and none of them suffered the devastation of Sherman's March nor the Federal opposition to Jim Crow laws. The GOP in the Southwest may not be positive about big government, but the reasons are different.
It was a long time ago and my memories are a bit hazy, but I recall that Barry Goldwater, a partisan conservative if there ever was one, devoted a lot of his energies in later years to conservation issues. He was even willing to involve the federal government in some cases. I can't imagine the modern GOP under Trump tolerating such heresy.
The issue of nativism is also more nuanced in the Southwest. If I recall correctly, many of the earlier attempts at reforming our immigration laws either came from or were supported by Republicans from the Southwest.
Mauger (USA)
Mr. Trump please respect the Mayor of Phoenix's request that you postpone your visit to our state. Better yet don't come at all. We can do without your bigotry and hate. We don't need your wall either. The money would be better spent teaching history, geography and foreign languages in our school so that our children learn they live in global economy and need to prepare to be part of a competitive work force in such an economy. They will also learn that climate change is real, that solar power is a viable option, and that building bridges -- figuratively and literally -- is far more important then spewing hate.
T and E (Travelling USA)
These "personality wars" are such a waste of time.

The president prefers to fight anyone over fighting for any cause.
AusTex (Texas)
Instead of spending ridiculous amounts of money against Senator Jeff Flake who is the closest thing to a centrist I have seen lately spend it against those to the far right. Senator Jeff Flake is to be respected and though I don't agree on every position he takes I believe he is a reach across the aisle politician which is what this country needs.

Senators like Senator Ted Cruz are far more damaging to our democracy.
Dwight Davis (Kirkland, WA)
Jeff Flake, like Ben Sasse and other "centrist" Republicans, is centrist only in his speech, not in his actions (votes). If he is replaced by a Democrat, it will have almost the same positive effect from a policy perspective as having a Democrat replace one of the more rabid of the right-wing GOPers. True, we'd lose a moderate voice on the GOP side, but I'm tired of the bait and switch Flake and others constantly demonstrate when it comes to voting in a way that reflects their temperate words.
JD (Arizona)
The Mercer Gang has chosen a very strange person to back in the primary against Senator Flake. Locally Kelli Ward is known as "Chemtrail Kelli" since she held a town hall on toxins being put into airplane trails in order to....poison people below. (The reason for doing this is unclear). The chemtrail consipiracy comes from alt right sources, of course.

Meanwhile, about 5 seconds after it was announced that Senator McCain had brain cancer, Kelli went on the airwaves to proclaim that McCain should step down and she should be appointed as his immediate replacement. Arizonans were emphatically scandalized by her nasty grab for power. She was roundly denounced by Republicans and Democrats alike.

As for me, I'm rooting for the Dems. Perhaps before I die, the state will swing blue. Tucson is blue, Phoenix has a solid Democratic mayor (Stanton), and the conservative enclave of Mesa (once monolithically LDS) is fast becoming full of Latinos who vote Democrat.

P.S. The Mercer family is a prime example of a clan that needs to be prevented (by massive campaign finance reform) from spending their money to steal elections from us and propagating their weird vision of the U.S.'s future.
Doug Karo (Durham, NH)
Perhaps with this publicity and her apparent lack of popular support. the President will invite Kelli Ward to join his staff or take a senior position in a government agency.
bob lesch (embudo, NM)
one step at a time - their are a few governors races to focus on now in 2017.
JD (Bellingham)
Janet Napolitano was able to win in Az and carried maricopa county, Bruce Babbit also won there and I'm sure that if the right team is put together a democrat can win the state as well. This being said I would think that any sane person who would contemplate ward over Flake should be examined closely. I don't agree with Mr. Flake on much but. His stance on 45 is to be admired.