They ought to be ashamed of themsejves. Thst would be a start.
19
Didn't Trump just warn Meuller to lay off his family's finances? It's all coming out. It's only a matter of time.
33
Maybe the " missing" are dead. Not just brain dead, but actually dead.
7
We know his voting base was smaller than HRC's. Guessing his hands probably are, too. Gut's bigger. Along with his eventual legal fees, I suspect
19
A lot of Trump voters will never admit they were wrong to support him because they would have to answer the question: what does that say about them? The cognitive dissonance is too strong.... As long as there is Fox News giving them an out to confronting the reality of a bad president, they will continue to believe in him...and continue to steep themselves in the "alternative facts."
35
The scary thing is that Dems actually voted for a conservative. As progressives, we cannot count on people voting for a progressive because Trump is so bad. We have to come up with a viable alternative. I am a Dem, but prefer a progressive, no matter if she or he is a Dem or Independent.
11
Well, it wasn't enough to convince such people in
Georgia's sixth district to vote or a democratic
congressional candidate. The republican candidate
got about 67K fewer votes than Price did but
the number of votes that the democratic candidate
got was actually about the same as the one in 2016
who hardly spent any money and didn't really campaign
at all. So the Emory study (coincidentally enough)
will need to factor in how "loss of party affiliation"
translates into actual voting behavior changes in
congressional elections in order to understand what
their initial study indicated might be happening. It could
be simply an anti-trump expression only.
Georgia's sixth district to vote or a democratic
congressional candidate. The republican candidate
got about 67K fewer votes than Price did but
the number of votes that the democratic candidate
got was actually about the same as the one in 2016
who hardly spent any money and didn't really campaign
at all. So the Emory study (coincidentally enough)
will need to factor in how "loss of party affiliation"
translates into actual voting behavior changes in
congressional elections in order to understand what
their initial study indicated might be happening. It could
be simply an anti-trump expression only.
15
I wouldn't be surprised if their hypothesis proved true. I'm one of these former Rs -- I voted for Kasich in the 2016 primary (although I originally backed Bush), but I will not register as a Republican as long as Trump is the party's standard-bearer.
60
Democrats need to be the party of solutions if they want to beat Republicans in the next election. I'm not Trump isn't going to cut it anymore. We need ideas not gridlock if we're going to rebuild our country and go back to being the land of opportunity that we once were.
I understand the anger that some of the Trump supporters felt. Since the recession I've been laid off and under paid because American businesses knew they could get away with it. The fact that no one from Wall Street or the banking world was prosecuted angers me. The people who destroyed our economy profited from it while many Americans will never recover.
Democrats may be able to retake the House and the Senate but they won't stay in power if they don't do anything to make America better. FDR and LBJ had policies that made our lives better and provided opportunity and security. The American people are tired of gridlock and business as usual.
I understand the anger that some of the Trump supporters felt. Since the recession I've been laid off and under paid because American businesses knew they could get away with it. The fact that no one from Wall Street or the banking world was prosecuted angers me. The people who destroyed our economy profited from it while many Americans will never recover.
Democrats may be able to retake the House and the Senate but they won't stay in power if they don't do anything to make America better. FDR and LBJ had policies that made our lives better and provided opportunity and security. The American people are tired of gridlock and business as usual.
70
Very well said. It has taken away the need for me to add anything.
7
I'm curious what you would consider making America better?
6
If Democrats really wanted to win in 2018, they'd run on a platform of reforming marijuana laws -- rescheduling it and allowing states to decide the legality. That would draw out the millennials (and others). However, I don't see the Dems doing that; they don't have the leadership to pull it off.
10
Poll on! But poll things that can be considered by every human being. More often we are proving to this administration that they are not looking at the right numbers. The numbers to build should be based on how better can the quality of life become for the greatest number of people. As a paying taxpayer, I would like to ask how many of us are out there ... that's a list much more telling than the search for fraudulent voters. And then, what do those numbers of paying taxpayers consider to be the appropriate way to spend the money that has been gathered? These are exciting thoughts -- I hope these ideas are being considered. Resist cruelty. Be strong. Be kind. Find peace and share it.
2
Polling Numbers we're going there really???
The last time i looked the polling numbers showed Congress to be at an alltime low. In fact the favorable numbers for both the GOP and the Democratic party don't elicit much to cheer about these days. Last but not least 3 days before the general election most polls had HRC winning by a wide margin.
I think all americans should withhold any judgment until actual work has been done.
The last time i looked the polling numbers showed Congress to be at an alltime low. In fact the favorable numbers for both the GOP and the Democratic party don't elicit much to cheer about these days. Last but not least 3 days before the general election most polls had HRC winning by a wide margin.
I think all americans should withhold any judgment until actual work has been done.
5
"3 days before the general election most polls had HRC winning by a wide margin."
Those were national polls, which accurately showed HRC winning the popular vote by a large margin.
Trump was rejected by a clear majority of voters.
Those were national polls, which accurately showed HRC winning the popular vote by a large margin.
Trump was rejected by a clear majority of voters.
46
Don't get my hopes up. The explanation is entirely reasonable but an overstated approval rating might not amount to much in the electoral college. Without geographic information, the assessment is interesting but generally meaningless. Previously pro-Trump Californians might switch sides but that won't change an election result. If you told me Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Pennsylvania were having serious second thoughts, I might be more optimistic.
30
Too much time and energy is being spent on analyzing polls and trying to understand why Republican members of Congress still support Trump and his agenda du jour. Recall that the next election for all US Representatives and 1/3 of Senators isn't until November 2018 or 16 months away. When Republican Congressional candidates believe that their re-election is in jeopardy due to their support of Trump, they will abandon ship quickly. Similar to Trump's lack of loyalty to members of his administration (except family) Congressional Republicans will reciprocate their lack of loyalty to Trump. Trump's unsaid motto of "One for all and all for one" will lead to his downfall.
5
I can't wear my Trump t-shirt in my gym without getting nasty looks. I'm scared somebody will smash a dumbbell into my head. I voted on the lesser of the two evil people. I made a very bad decision.
24
Yes, you did, and thanks for making the rest of us pay for it. Glad to hear that you're regretting it, though. Join the adult team - the Democrats, or at least the Independents.
26
People make mistakes. So now who do you claim is the lesser of "two evil people"? The temptation to argue casting someone as evil, colluding with Russian hackers to assure a win and then letting the promise of charges drop immediately after takin office say it was all usual Trumpian trickery that a lot of people fell for. Now we all suffer.
15
Agreed ... bad decision. So be a political activist for your revised observations. Join the civil disobedience that surrounds you. Best wishes.
27
Anyone willing to bet the house of polling data these days?
4
There is this thing for new Presidents called a honeymoon, particularly when the same party controls Congress.
Presidents try to have a big first year, declaring a mandate to fulfill campaign promises with major new legislation before the mid-term Congressional election campaign starts, because their party typically fights,a losing battle to defend seats.
Presidents will never again be as powerful as during their honeymoon, and their party generally will not risk a confrontation with the White House. in that period.
But Trump is already very unpopular, totally unreliable and unsteady as a leader. The daily vacillations on health care have his Party shaking their heads. All of this was totally predictable before the election.
But a worse outcome would be to have Pence in the White House, at least before the mid-term campaign, because he might actually be able to get more bad stuff done. So the Russian investigation must move forward deliberately, carefully, cautiously, slooooowly.
If the House shifts back to the Democrats in 2018, the whole Trump Administration will be under continuous investigation in the toxic partisan climate created by Boehner and Ryan.
Presidents try to have a big first year, declaring a mandate to fulfill campaign promises with major new legislation before the mid-term Congressional election campaign starts, because their party typically fights,a losing battle to defend seats.
Presidents will never again be as powerful as during their honeymoon, and their party generally will not risk a confrontation with the White House. in that period.
But Trump is already very unpopular, totally unreliable and unsteady as a leader. The daily vacillations on health care have his Party shaking their heads. All of this was totally predictable before the election.
But a worse outcome would be to have Pence in the White House, at least before the mid-term campaign, because he might actually be able to get more bad stuff done. So the Russian investigation must move forward deliberately, carefully, cautiously, slooooowly.
If the House shifts back to the Democrats in 2018, the whole Trump Administration will be under continuous investigation in the toxic partisan climate created by Boehner and Ryan.
29
And, God willing, if the House flips to a majority of Dems in the 2018 mid-terms, they will start impeachment hearings immediately, if Trump hasn't imploded by then.
15
God no! We don't want him impeached until just before 2020. I'd rather see him investigated until he quits....
5
How this report manages to leave out what percentage of the public is registered Republican is incomprehensible, and a vital missing component of this article. If one thinks in historic terms of the populous being mostly democrat or republican, then it would seem Trump's support is surprisingly high. However, the largest party right now are the independents, republicans being less than 1/3 of the total (as are democrats.) So, 75% of less than 1/3rd of registered voters is what? Maybe 20% of the population. Not so impressive.
18
I have argued this for weeks. Nobody ever points out the steady exodus of people leaving the Republican Party. What is perplexing and dangerous is the map with remaining Republicans residing in rural areas. This gives what is becoming a Republican minority in the party outsized power and that small, uninformed, ignorant and proud of it bunch who only want a candidate that affirms what they already believe can keep voting Republicans in for a very long time. We have been steadily marching toward this very real problem for a long time now.
38
As I keep telling my conservative relatives: You're not married to Trump or any of the rest of the GOP "leaders". Just leave.
"Just walk out the back, Jack
Makin' new plans, Stan
You don't need to be coy, Roy...."
"Just walk out the back, Jack
Makin' new plans, Stan
You don't need to be coy, Roy...."
36
When the news hits that Donald Trump swam out to save a frightened and drowning Nancy Pelosi his numbers will skyrocket again. I have the video.
5
It seems to me the simple solution to the "identifies as Republican" riddle would be for pollsters to ask instead, "Did you vote Republican in the last election?" Or is that too obvious?
14
The polls were so wrong in the last election that I think we are going to have to take a break from polls until they show that they are accurate. I also believe that many would not admit Trump support publicly or even to a pollster in the last election (too embarrassed or ashamed) and I believe the same is true today: many Republicans secretly love the havoc that Trump is wreaking but don't want the public embarrassment of admitting it.
8
"The polls were so wrong in the last election....."
Not if you were paying attention, especially after the FBI interference.
Not if you were paying attention, especially after the FBI interference.
21
every one seems to forget that ultimately, the polls weren't that far off. HEX won the popular vote by almost 3 million. a slight shift of 75000 would have saved us from the Buffoon in Chief
26
Try Nate Silver's site fivethirtyeight.com. Right before the election he was giving Donnie a one third chance of being elected; pretty high overall and he was accurate in his assessments of the blue wall being weaker than people were assuming.
Silver doesn't create his own polls, he analyses polls and weights them according to how accurate they've been.
Silver doesn't create his own polls, he analyses polls and weights them according to how accurate they've been.
8
What seems to be lacking in this state of political dis-dain and dis-respect for people is the focus on TECHNOLOGY. Who, but only the most elite of us have privy to what can be done to polls, elections,statistics etc. etc. with modern-day TEch. We, the people need more insight from all the Think Tank Giants who perhaps are now "owned" by Politicians. Trump, to me, seems to have some capability that allows him to laugh at anyone and anything that questions him or his family. It's almost as though our Government has become "owned" by him. We need all the Elon Musks of our country to step up and out and let us all have access to what can be done. It seems that the mode of our elections etc. is not suitable for our modern day.
6
The fact that there are so many Americans who can so easily be fooled into believing the rantings and ravings of a woefully unqualified reality TV show huckster and continue to believe him even after proof after proof of his malfeasance is exposed does not bode well for the health and well being of our nation.
52
Trump is loving the debacle on healthcare because it keeps the spot light off of the Russian affair.
14
He loves chaos because he uses it as a means of creating such confusion and upset that often any accusation just goes away. He's even been successful with this tactic with the IRS.
18
He loves chaos of any sort. The more the better it seems. He's just a completely self-involved blusterer.
8
That Trump's support number is not preceded by a decimal point (and a "0") is testimony to the accuracy of HL Mencken's quote, "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public." The corollary here is that a whole bunch of us are broke[n] for having over-estimated it.
16
The status quo is before us. This is the "status quo". Maybe call it the" new status quo." But it won't last. Because it can't. Trump is The Grand Accident. And like most accidents, he will be cleaned up and traffic will resume.
8
From your mouth to God's ears is, I believe, the appropriate response.
3
I disapproved of Trump from the outset, but became alienated from the Republican Party due to the acquiescence of GOP leaders to Trump's corrupt behavior.
Among people in my survey cohort, Trump's approval rating is stable (but very low), while the GOP's rating is weakening over time.
Not until Democrats control a majority of Congress will Trump's destructive, ignorant, antisocial influence be curbed.
Among people in my survey cohort, Trump's approval rating is stable (but very low), while the GOP's rating is weakening over time.
Not until Democrats control a majority of Congress will Trump's destructive, ignorant, antisocial influence be curbed.
14
Trump has attention deficit disorder, a vicious and hostile attitude toward enemies, and a delusional spin about facts and events that no lawyer or doctor or CPA or other educated professional in this country could get away with. He frightens me as does his coterie. He survives only because of his wealth and a network of family and supporters who prop him up. He is totally out of it. God help us all.
39
The psychological factor becoming known as 'motivated ignorance' is likely to be a factor here: https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/hot-thought/201301/motivated-ignorance refers.
4
This fits in with conservative pundits. Joe Scarborough quit the party. Charles Krauthammer expressed disgust with Don Jr's meetings and their reflection on Trump himself. I recently read an article by an American Enterprise Institute contributor criticizing McConnell's secret process for ramming through the awful BRCA.
Few people like to publicly admit they are wrong, but even staunch conservatives are unhappy. It's not good news for the GOP.
Few people like to publicly admit they are wrong, but even staunch conservatives are unhappy. It's not good news for the GOP.
8
Our government is now full of "little green men" just like they had in Ukraine, and they're giving it all away to Russia. Who cares what the polls say? If there are any Republicans left who aren't in bed with Russia, they need to save our country now. There will not be a free election in the future for them (the non-Russian affiliated Republicans) to get elected anyway, so they may as well save our Republic while they can.
12
In other words, Trump would still will the Republican nomination if it were repeated today but the shrunken proportion of the overall electorate his Party now represents may not give him a win in a general election, even in the Electoral College.
How adults who are able to take care of themselves continue to support Trump really defies rational belief. He is so clearly a foolish and incompetent person that it is hard to see why anyone would support him.
How adults who are able to take care of themselves continue to support Trump really defies rational belief. He is so clearly a foolish and incompetent person that it is hard to see why anyone would support him.
12
It does boggle.
6
When we get down to the last Republican, Trump will have 100% support of that one guy in Nebraska.
8
I believe George Will's defection from the GOP preceded Scarborough's by months. That is not to suggest that one ought to start reading George Will to be informed.
4
The two-party system in America is such that while fewer people identify with either party, they still have to vote for one or the other.
3
This is a really good article!
1
So if the only people left in the Republican party are Trump supporters his party support would increase to 100%!
Intelligent Trump supporters generally have a hidden agenda, namely reduction of government and taxes. They see Trump as their fool, but as Robert Stone put it, and supporting Republicans have learned, Trump doesn't take the bit very well.
Intelligent Trump supporters generally have a hidden agenda, namely reduction of government and taxes. They see Trump as their fool, but as Robert Stone put it, and supporting Republicans have learned, Trump doesn't take the bit very well.
3
"Even the most recent Russia revelations seemingly haven’t dented support for Mr. Trump among Republicans..." Telling. Very telling. You don't have to read between the lines to understand this folks. It's called "Party before Country"
11
Ah, the search for the "missing" Republicans. What a thankless task.
2
The Trump/Pence administration is nothing more than a manifestation of the overarching right-wing hatred of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. You can't govern simply on the basis of hate. Eventually such hatred will consume those who try to wield it as a weapon.
12
If there are Republican Senators who will stand up and tell Mr. Trump the truth, the rewards will be far greater than a free lunch on the taxpayers.
3
Anybody tired of all the winning?
4
Whining. I think we all just misunderstood what he said....
1
Nothing has changed.
Before the election we all knew what kind of person Donald Trump is. Dishonest, deceitful, greedy, bully, hypersensitive narcissist. He is bigoted against people because of gender, sexual orientation, religion/no religious belief, financial status, and the list goes on.
So why would his supporters change their opinion. Donald Trump is everything he showed us prior to the election.
Trump is all yours oh holy conservative republicans. And he is trying to remove the heart of The U.S.A. By heart I mean the expressions from our government of empathy, and compassion for our fellow human beings.
Before the election we all knew what kind of person Donald Trump is. Dishonest, deceitful, greedy, bully, hypersensitive narcissist. He is bigoted against people because of gender, sexual orientation, religion/no religious belief, financial status, and the list goes on.
So why would his supporters change their opinion. Donald Trump is everything he showed us prior to the election.
Trump is all yours oh holy conservative republicans. And he is trying to remove the heart of The U.S.A. By heart I mean the expressions from our government of empathy, and compassion for our fellow human beings.
13
#45 has supporters that do not believe he has done anything wrong. As said "he could do anything in front of Trump Tower and they still support him even if it is wrong.
4
No matter how low his ratings really are Trump is still the President.
Whine as we may, President Trump is in charge and can only be contained and controlled due to the ineptitude of the Republican Party since Democrats still are spineless and enamored with 12 point plans and 40 page policy statements instead of sound bites.
The damage to our public has been done. As a liberal Californian I end up talking to more alt right and Trumpian gun worshiping Bible thumping anti choice folk than anyone else I know (except for the right wingers I end up talking with). To a person, they just do not believe anything from any governmental agency. They do not believe the IRS, the FBI, the EPA, FDA, as well as the CBO or the OMB. The only thing they believe are Trump's tweets and what they hear from Rush and Jones and other extreme right radio hosts. Why they believe corporate sponsored right wingers over corporate sponsored NYT, Washington Post, CNN still baffles me, but they do.
Trump's support may dwindle but along with it the courage and fortitude to oppose him seems to continuously dwindle as well.
Whine as we may, President Trump is in charge and can only be contained and controlled due to the ineptitude of the Republican Party since Democrats still are spineless and enamored with 12 point plans and 40 page policy statements instead of sound bites.
The damage to our public has been done. As a liberal Californian I end up talking to more alt right and Trumpian gun worshiping Bible thumping anti choice folk than anyone else I know (except for the right wingers I end up talking with). To a person, they just do not believe anything from any governmental agency. They do not believe the IRS, the FBI, the EPA, FDA, as well as the CBO or the OMB. The only thing they believe are Trump's tweets and what they hear from Rush and Jones and other extreme right radio hosts. Why they believe corporate sponsored right wingers over corporate sponsored NYT, Washington Post, CNN still baffles me, but they do.
Trump's support may dwindle but along with it the courage and fortitude to oppose him seems to continuously dwindle as well.
8
Because those corporate supported right wingers tell them what they want to hear.
3
"Why they believe corporate sponsored right wingers over corporate sponsored NYT, Washington Post, CNN still baffles me."
Perhaps because corporate-sponsored right-wingers' hate-laced, nasty-minded, violence-inciting tone more faithfully echoes their own internal voices than corporate-sponsored fact-based reporting, intellectual honesty and reasoned analysis?
Perhaps because corporate-sponsored right-wingers' hate-laced, nasty-minded, violence-inciting tone more faithfully echoes their own internal voices than corporate-sponsored fact-based reporting, intellectual honesty and reasoned analysis?
2
O.K. Point taken. But even if the "base of Republican support" drops from 82% to, say, 75%, you are still talking about millions of people staunchly behind a draft-dodging sexual predator and pathological liar as Commander in Chief. We can breathe a little easier when that "GOP base of support" drops to around 7% where it belongs.
7
Whole lotta "if's" and hope and magical thinking here. Not so sure what the value of this article is. If the dems don't offer a bonafide, concrete plan to make real change and improvement (and learn how to describe it so it's compelling to people), and put forth excellent candidates, it won't matter much if Trump power "dwindles." Many others where he came from.
3
Those who voted for him were much more anti-President Obama and Anti-Hillary than pro-clown. Is it not obvious from his platform of all for the rich and none for the little people?
I underestimated Mr. Trump. While I recognized him as a shallow, bounder from the start, it never occurred to me that he possessed the huge reserves of loathing and antipathy towards his political enemies that he is currently placing on display. This is a bitter, angry, unhappy man intent on seeking revenge against a wide swath of the American people -- women, minorities, Democrats, you name them, he is contemptuous of them -- who he imagines have done him injury and have failed to show proper respect for his genius.
There will be no successful dealing with him short of expelling him from office. We must think of him as a giant swamp that urgently needs draining and set about the task immediately. Nothing, not even the task of fashioning a better health system, is of greater urgency. The temporary defeat of the health plan is only a victory if it can be succeeded by intelligent efforts to remove him from office. The place to start is with much wider public exposure of his sordid real estate dealings with the Russians.
https://newrepublic.com/article/143586/trumps-russian-laundromat-trump-t...
There will be no successful dealing with him short of expelling him from office. We must think of him as a giant swamp that urgently needs draining and set about the task immediately. Nothing, not even the task of fashioning a better health system, is of greater urgency. The temporary defeat of the health plan is only a victory if it can be succeeded by intelligent efforts to remove him from office. The place to start is with much wider public exposure of his sordid real estate dealings with the Russians.
https://newrepublic.com/article/143586/trumps-russian-laundromat-trump-t...
11
Hi A, as a New Yorker myself, I hate to say that I am not surprised at all. He is living up to my incredibly low expectations and then some. He is truly loathsome, and how he could have come out of this great liberal and diverse city that is a showcase of what can happen when you combine tolerance, pro immigration policies, democratic governance and free markets I'll never fully understand.
5
Reading the link above after the article yesterday regarding forfeiture of criminal proceeds is mind boggling. Obviously Trump and Company assets should be seized now.
1
And used to fund health care! Thanks, Donald!
5
Like their hero, Trump voters are incapable of admitting a mistake. It takes a modicum of character to admit you've voted for an amoral, selfish, lying, malignantly narcissistic and lazy candidate. To admit you've voted against your own best interests begs the question 'what the blank were you thinking?'
That tens of millions of voters, blind to their own hypocrisy, can countenance the dishonesty and ineptitude of the present administration does not bode well for the future of this country.
That tens of millions of voters, blind to their own hypocrisy, can countenance the dishonesty and ineptitude of the present administration does not bode well for the future of this country.
10
I've followed the election and main stream media hysteria (including fox news) and the way I see it, the President is gonna win in 2020 again. The republicans will keep the senate in 2018 and probably the house too. There really is no path forward to democrats - they are between a rock and a hard place. Their rabid far left won't let go till the party is all but vanished. Reagan democrats do not see a Bill Clinton anywhere in the ranks. As much as slick willy is despised now, he actually cared about the little people. And NYT can't elevate Hitlary to that position however hard it tries.
4
I have a feeling that just like pre-election people may be embarrassed to admit that they are Reoublican. Wouldn't you?
3
I don't see that chimps in a "fairness" lab experiment couldn't have figured this out before now. Not all Trump's anti-media jabs are without merit. "Asleep At The Wheel" is a great name for a band...
As my uncle, who happens to live in a swing state, said, "I didn't leave the Republican party. The Republican party left me."
8
I never bought for a minute there was a big base. It's a lot of grandstanding and noise (look at the low turn-out for the inauguration)
It is a FACT that less than a third of the electorate voted for Trump, and of that third, many held their nose when they pulled that lever.
The fake news ( Faux News, Breitbart, WH tweets) has stirred up a toxic "us v. them" attitude, Very bad ! (So much for leadership and E pluribus unum and all that.)
The decreasing "base" (mostly in red states, and who listen only to angry old white guy hate mongers like Limbaugh, Hannity, et al.) just need to ask themselves one simple question- how will Trump AmeriKa, including the roll backs to Medicaid, affect them and their families.
It is a FACT that less than a third of the electorate voted for Trump, and of that third, many held their nose when they pulled that lever.
The fake news ( Faux News, Breitbart, WH tweets) has stirred up a toxic "us v. them" attitude, Very bad ! (So much for leadership and E pluribus unum and all that.)
The decreasing "base" (mostly in red states, and who listen only to angry old white guy hate mongers like Limbaugh, Hannity, et al.) just need to ask themselves one simple question- how will Trump AmeriKa, including the roll backs to Medicaid, affect them and their families.
10
Interesting the base of Mr Trump's support is directing the Republicans in Congress to abandon his agenda. What sort of man or woman abandons moral authority in order to hold onto power? A lapsed Christian? A godless heathen? A gutless coward? A thoughtless idiot?
With the exception of the never professed heathen, the majority fall into the other three categories, none of which causes them any embarrassment, but which may cost those up for reelection in 2018 their seats in Congress.
It may take less time than this next year and a half for those who put Mr Trump in office to wise up to the fact his enablers, for all their honeyed words, have never had their backs. The same may be found by local office holders who in their enthusiasm to rid the memory of our only Afro-American President should have given some thought to the consequence accompanying their support of the slovenly minded man-child they helped elevate.
For a bit of time, the delusion Mr Trump was capable of leading almost anything, but a gay pride parade gave me hope something other than bluster might lurk below his well-combed hair. It now appears to my obtuse and forgiving mind there is, as often said, no there, there.
Nonetheless, he has become the point of a long heavy spear which is being driven into the heart of our culture by men who have less regard for our nation than even him.
I can only hope our children, for whom he and his cohorts show no concern, will inherit more than a barren landscape.
With the exception of the never professed heathen, the majority fall into the other three categories, none of which causes them any embarrassment, but which may cost those up for reelection in 2018 their seats in Congress.
It may take less time than this next year and a half for those who put Mr Trump in office to wise up to the fact his enablers, for all their honeyed words, have never had their backs. The same may be found by local office holders who in their enthusiasm to rid the memory of our only Afro-American President should have given some thought to the consequence accompanying their support of the slovenly minded man-child they helped elevate.
For a bit of time, the delusion Mr Trump was capable of leading almost anything, but a gay pride parade gave me hope something other than bluster might lurk below his well-combed hair. It now appears to my obtuse and forgiving mind there is, as often said, no there, there.
Nonetheless, he has become the point of a long heavy spear which is being driven into the heart of our culture by men who have less regard for our nation than even him.
I can only hope our children, for whom he and his cohorts show no concern, will inherit more than a barren landscape.
7
Social issue conservatives (think abortion rights) vote Republican, whether they are rich or poor, working or middle class. The lower income conservatives rely on government programs to survive, while the more affluent itch for tax cuts. A party this divided cannot stand- McConnell and Ryan face a stalemate within their party. No longer is it enough to bash Obama or Hillary, especially with Tweetie bird uncaged, flitting through the White House. Schadenfreude is sweet.
2
I supported Trump - and I still support him. Even more so as he admirably weathers the storm from the left, the MSM, the "Polls" and malcontents in his own party. The rural kids in Alabama - or upstate NY - and such do not have the inclination, time or trust to talk to pollsters, even if these Trump supporters are contacted - which is not likely. Trump has rewritten the book on the validity of the polls, what it means to be "Presidential", and politics in general: nothing here that I do not like. Sorry. If anyone wants to believe these polls, that's fine. As for me, I'll see you in the next election cycle, where barring a "real" disaster, he will get my support once again.
My question for you, Mr. "Refugee" (and what an ironic pseudonym that is for a supporter of the Trumpster!!!), is how many of your kind will still be on his bandwagon when health care implodes and our air stinks and the water becomes toxic and the rest of the world just holds their noses when they hear Trump's name....all due to his Administration's policies? Will you still be a fan when it becomes obvious that his campaign promises were ridiculous and it really is NOT the fault of the Democrats that he has gotten almost nothing done in his first term? Most of the folks who get hurt worst will be Trump's earnest supporters. Will you just stubbornly hang on to that support or wake up someday and realize you were duped?
4
Trump supporters don't have time to be polled? Who were the people at Trump's rallies that lasted for hours?
4
So which poll numbers do your refuse to be believe: the very low approval numbers in the gerbil population, or the very high approval numbers of identified Republicans?
1
The Republican Party at one time was a great ocean of diverse political interests. Over the past decades it evaporated down to what is now a great salt lake--smaller and higher in concentration. And if current trends continue, it will ultimately evaporate into a very salty, dead sea--very high in its dogmatic concentration, in which almost nothing normal can survive.
21
I don't ever remember diversity, political or otherwise, ever being part of the Republican ideology.
Their tide has already run itself dry.
Their tide has already run itself dry.
2
Trump supporters are sometimes characterized as 'deplorables' and 'uneducated' residents of the fly-over states whose numbers sufficiently tilted swing states to Trump. I don't think that Trump supporters are uneducated, or lacking a college education. The Trump campign was fine-tuned to attract "under-educated" voters to be the vanguards of swing state campaigns. The common profile of these voters is a lack of reason, logic and common sense based on self-interest that includes fair and reasonable social benefits for the majority of Americans - like healthcare. Instead, profiled Trump voters filled a void of ignorance with a nuanced American 'ethnicity' formed by a peer group of like-minded folks that refuse to accept social pluralism. Trump people prefer to cling to 'dog whistled' political chicanery planned by highly educated database marketers that use smart tools, like social media, to decode community profiles that may decide electoral victory - it's all about winning. Political analysis and marketing to score these Trumpsters' votes was so good that the current debate on Obamacare has morphed into political theater: we like Obamacare; don't like Trumpcare; but wil vote for Trump again. Social psychology and communications pollsters are having a field day since President Trump was inaugurated: the USA is now a hot "living laboratory" of political hypothesis testing. The theory that people vote their self-interest is no longer valid. And common sense is no longer common.
11
Trumpmetrics--from whence comes the 'biggest inaugural turnout" .
The easy and 'cheap' polls that keep being wrong are right right up there with Trump alternative facts.
There does come a time when some-even if only some- of those under mass hallucination-start to wonder if there's something wrong 'there'...
The easy and 'cheap' polls that keep being wrong are right right up there with Trump alternative facts.
There does come a time when some-even if only some- of those under mass hallucination-start to wonder if there's something wrong 'there'...
3
If the Democrats will develop a successful strategy and well-thought-out platform the poll numbers will follow. People vote for their best interest and Republicans cannot deliver that. Let Trump be Trump and let the Republicans do their thing. Democrats need to develop winning policies that reflect the best ideas in healthcare and other domestic policies as well as show their intention to re-enter the global arena and support our allies instead of other corrupt governments.
23
I take it you were familiar with Sanders and Clintons policies?
2
@acqua
Anybody familiar with either Sanders' or Clinton's policies knows there's a YUGE difference between what they, and Republicans are talking about.
Anybody familiar with either Sanders' or Clinton's policies knows there's a YUGE difference between what they, and Republicans are talking about.
12
"well-thought-out platform the poll numbers will follow."
Democrats did:
https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/
But the vast majority of news reports about Clinton completely ignored her well-thought out agenda (you can agree or disagree, but at least it should be discussed!) and email just email spoke emails about emails, so only voters who had the time/interest to read through the website or listen to her thoughtful speeches on c-span as I did would have known.
Democrats did:
https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/
But the vast majority of news reports about Clinton completely ignored her well-thought out agenda (you can agree or disagree, but at least it should be discussed!) and email just email spoke emails about emails, so only voters who had the time/interest to read through the website or listen to her thoughtful speeches on c-span as I did would have known.
1
I read good news. Voters who aren't energized don't make it to the polls.
Nixon had supporters even when he was walking to the helicopter on the South Lawn. Trump won't lose all his true believers, but we don't need him to. We need enough to change their minds, or stay home, and he'll lose in 2020. Hopefully the Republican congress will lose in 2018 as well, and he'll be impeached even sooner. Democrats need to quit insulting Trump voters and let them change their minds instead of digging in to defend themselves.
Nixon had supporters even when he was walking to the helicopter on the South Lawn. Trump won't lose all his true believers, but we don't need him to. We need enough to change their minds, or stay home, and he'll lose in 2020. Hopefully the Republican congress will lose in 2018 as well, and he'll be impeached even sooner. Democrats need to quit insulting Trump voters and let them change their minds instead of digging in to defend themselves.
28
I have 20/20 vision. I don't see Trump.
4
I don't hear Democrats insulting Trump voters any more than the other way around -- But let's face it. This presidency is seriously flawed, and it's time to call a spade a spade.
1
A thought-provoking analysis, but does it necessarily mean anything in terms of potential political impact? One reason so many craven Republican politicians still support Trump or refrain from strongly criticizing him is the fear that they could lose Republican primaries to Trump-supporting opponents - "out-Trumped," as it were. But if some former supporters of Trump are leaving the party, that seems to mean that the primary-voting percentage of Republicans remains very high. And that, in turn, means that Republican politicians may still fear opposing him.
7
Steve, It may mean something. The article does not say that the people are leaving the Republican party; it says that the respondents do not identify as Republican. (Although Joe Scarborough did in fact leave the party)
So, the gist of the article is that these people no longer self identify as Republicans in the surveys, which would be a very big deal for the "craven Republican politicians".
So, the gist of the article is that these people no longer self identify as Republicans in the surveys, which would be a very big deal for the "craven Republican politicians".
3
It seems to me that the next logical step will be Republican members of Congress leaving the party. Not necessarily becoming Democrats but labeling themselves with an (I) after their names to make a statement.
Like Bernie Sanders and Angus King who are Independents who caucus with the Dems, these folks may do the same, but caucus with the GOP. Then again, if there's enough Independents, they may form their own caucus ...
Like Bernie Sanders and Angus King who are Independents who caucus with the Dems, these folks may do the same, but caucus with the GOP. Then again, if there's enough Independents, they may form their own caucus ...
7
Let's repeal and replace the Republican party.
90
Given all the Republicans I know who abandoned Trump in the election either by not voting out voting libertarian, I have a hard time believing 82% of anything approaching the Republican party is a larger constituency. To the rest, I say what are you thinking?
9
"...what are you thinking?"
The fact is, those folks aren't thinking. That's the problem, right there.
The fact is, those folks aren't thinking. That's the problem, right there.
30
It's hard to know what to make of the polls in light of the ones leading up to the 2016 election. But you do have to wonder about the fact they continue to show 85% of Republicans continuing to support Trump when you see so many thoughtful, vocal conservatives--David Brooks, Bret Stephens, Jennifer Rubin, George Will, Joe Scarborough, even Charles Krauthammer and Shep Smith, and others in conservative media--backing away from him and in a number of cases from the GOP.
Personally I called it quits when the Tea Party came to power--when, after decades of extolling the virtue of having the government touch as little of our lives as possible, the GOP suddenly threw open the doors of our bedrooms and our hearts to government intervention. It was only then that I accepted the GOP's Southern Strategy for the not-so-thinly-veiled call to racism I had tried to deny and decided in good conscience I could not longer call myself Republican.
The big question is how many other Republicans have had their fill of a President who has no principles at all and a party whose only apparent guiding light is tax cuts to its donors. Trump is now leading a charge against those in the party who spoke against him or the GOP's efforts to repeal and replace the ACA. If they are defeated the GOP will be left with no conscience at all.
Will there be any thoughtful Americans, however previously devoted to "conservative" principles, who could still support the Republican Party then?
Personally I called it quits when the Tea Party came to power--when, after decades of extolling the virtue of having the government touch as little of our lives as possible, the GOP suddenly threw open the doors of our bedrooms and our hearts to government intervention. It was only then that I accepted the GOP's Southern Strategy for the not-so-thinly-veiled call to racism I had tried to deny and decided in good conscience I could not longer call myself Republican.
The big question is how many other Republicans have had their fill of a President who has no principles at all and a party whose only apparent guiding light is tax cuts to its donors. Trump is now leading a charge against those in the party who spoke against him or the GOP's efforts to repeal and replace the ACA. If they are defeated the GOP will be left with no conscience at all.
Will there be any thoughtful Americans, however previously devoted to "conservative" principles, who could still support the Republican Party then?
32
Aside from the [probably swayed] electoral college votes, the 2016 polls were pretty accurate re Clintons popular vote of near 3 million more.
This has been covered exhaustively, Im surprised you are not aware of this.
This has been covered exhaustively, Im surprised you are not aware of this.
4
Sure are a lot of "ifs" "maybes" and "perhaps" in there. Not very enlightening.
2
"Ifs, maybes and perhaps don't matter any more."-Kellyanne Conway
These findings appear to track well with the history and persona of Trump. He has led a 'trail of tears' of investors, contractors, customers, and employees who were: 1) impressed, 2)seduced, 3) defrauded, and 4) abandoned. This is certainly the M.O. of a serial abuser. He is just operating on a grander scale. Once the more sensible and less gullible catch on they head for the doors. Good luck at getting your guaranteed refund.
However, saying that there are Republicans who seem to 'change their spots" is a bit suspect. These 'Republicans' must not have been so committed to their party platforms after all. Or, they are confused as to exactly what they stood for. The GOP has stood for racism and the decline of the middle class. The GOP has stood for negative lifestyle politics.The GOP has stood for voter suppression. The GOP has supported a Wall St. culture that crashes the economy periodically. The GOP has stood for white privilege. If these folks are suddenly shaken to their senses by the 2016 election and Trump's subsequent behaviors it's likely they'll be seduced, again, by the Republican narrative. The question is whether their "identification problems" concern the party itself, or their own complicity in Trump's rise.
Frankly, as a lifelong Democrat, I don't know that I want these defectors in my party. We don't share common values. They're just having buyer's remorse.
However, saying that there are Republicans who seem to 'change their spots" is a bit suspect. These 'Republicans' must not have been so committed to their party platforms after all. Or, they are confused as to exactly what they stood for. The GOP has stood for racism and the decline of the middle class. The GOP has stood for negative lifestyle politics.The GOP has stood for voter suppression. The GOP has supported a Wall St. culture that crashes the economy periodically. The GOP has stood for white privilege. If these folks are suddenly shaken to their senses by the 2016 election and Trump's subsequent behaviors it's likely they'll be seduced, again, by the Republican narrative. The question is whether their "identification problems" concern the party itself, or their own complicity in Trump's rise.
Frankly, as a lifelong Democrat, I don't know that I want these defectors in my party. We don't share common values. They're just having buyer's remorse.
30
As someone who's been a registered Republican for all of the 45 years of my voting life, count me among those struggling with what to do next given our current president. The few Senators brave enough to say no to party leaders on health care has given me slight hope, but I've gone from being a strong Republican to being a wobbly one.
30
Why not just be a modern democrat? They have moved so far right since you were first a Republican that they might even be to the right of where you started.
35
Take heart. If you wobble long enough, you'll 'fall into' a party that really cares. Join the party with a heart that knows people should come first.
1
"he few Senators brave enough to say no to party leaders on health care has given me slight hope, but I've gone from being a strong Republican to being a wobbly one."
Is there any truth to the rumour, speaking of brave Senators, that John McCain's recent issues began with a salad served by a "Russian" waiter? There is, now, according to Kellyanne Conway's standard. Good Luck.
Is there any truth to the rumour, speaking of brave Senators, that John McCain's recent issues began with a salad served by a "Russian" waiter? There is, now, according to Kellyanne Conway's standard. Good Luck.
1
The same hypothesis may apply to former democrats who now call themselves independents.
11
Yes. And that's exactly how we ended up with the Republicans
1
I'm not sure that is the case. It's mostly Independents that were never Democrats who floated into the tent with Sanders and then got upset with the primary vote outcome. But what is their alternative? Lose with the Green Party, make an Independent Party in the next 18 months that can vie for state elections? That's unlikely to happen. Or they can toss their lot in with the only party with Progressive ideas that have a chance of winning. It's a question of whether their purity tests are more important to them than getting something positive done. And who can figure out what an Independent will do....
I don't believe these polls. I hope Democrats don't sit on their laurels and get comfortable while not articulating an alternative to Trump policies. They will end up in the same position that they are in today.
29
Josi,
Sound advice. The GOP is in terrible shape, but ALEC and the Kochs remain strong, intelligent, well-organized and highly motivated.
They are powerful in State and Municipal politics, and some of what they promote is sound. Who can be against competitive bidding on yer skool asphalt contracts? And bashing the teachers' union is always good for a few laughs over a beer after the Lions Club meeting.
America can be somewhat grateful that Trump is such a flamboyant incompetent -- but the Gorsuches, Pruitts, Prices and Sessionses of this world are quieter and not always as stupid.
As things stand, the march of 17th century, mercantilist and royalist, principles continues.
Sound advice. The GOP is in terrible shape, but ALEC and the Kochs remain strong, intelligent, well-organized and highly motivated.
They are powerful in State and Municipal politics, and some of what they promote is sound. Who can be against competitive bidding on yer skool asphalt contracts? And bashing the teachers' union is always good for a few laughs over a beer after the Lions Club meeting.
America can be somewhat grateful that Trump is such a flamboyant incompetent -- but the Gorsuches, Pruitts, Prices and Sessionses of this world are quieter and not always as stupid.
As things stand, the march of 17th century, mercantilist and royalist, principles continues.
2
No matter what Trump does he will have supporters because he's white, not Obama, and he's the sort of guy you could have a beer with even if he's filthy rich as opposed to dirt poor. What is not being said is that Trump put into words what a good many Americans are feeling or experiencing when it comes to the economy, their lives, and their hopes.
I didn't vote for Trump. However, I've lost jobs for no reason, been unemployed for long periods of time, had to go without needed health care even with insurance because I couldn't afford the other costs, had to move back into the parental home because housing costs are so high and I lost a job, and I too feel America has failed me. I resent the fact that the banksters were not punished for what they did while I see people with no money stuck in jail because they can't afford bail, people who work homeless because there is no affordable housing.
I'd like to see America become a better place to live for all Americans. But to me the GOP is a party that is more interested in protecting the rich, the fetus, and the rights of industry to ruin our environment, ruin our economy, underpay us, etc. Making America great again doesn't consist of doing what the GOP and Trump are doing. Making America great again means making it work for us and that is something that Trump and the GOP will never do.
I didn't vote for Trump. However, I've lost jobs for no reason, been unemployed for long periods of time, had to go without needed health care even with insurance because I couldn't afford the other costs, had to move back into the parental home because housing costs are so high and I lost a job, and I too feel America has failed me. I resent the fact that the banksters were not punished for what they did while I see people with no money stuck in jail because they can't afford bail, people who work homeless because there is no affordable housing.
I'd like to see America become a better place to live for all Americans. But to me the GOP is a party that is more interested in protecting the rich, the fetus, and the rights of industry to ruin our environment, ruin our economy, underpay us, etc. Making America great again doesn't consist of doing what the GOP and Trump are doing. Making America great again means making it work for us and that is something that Trump and the GOP will never do.
328
Have a beer with Donald Trump? To paraphrase Barack Obama, YOU have a beer with Donald Trump. I'd love to have a beer with Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush (even), or Barack Obama, but the idea of having a beer with the current loathsome and ignorarant POTUS is nauseating.
5
George W. Bush was the kind of guy you could have a beer with, and a disaster too. Just because a guy is chummy, doesn't mean he's fit for office, and the way Trump is going, if he starts a war, then he will be even worse. Give me competence over chumminess any day. By the way, one could also have a beer with President Barack Obama. Wish he were back.
2
It's interesting that modern day GOP supporters would rather stick it to us liberals rather than live in a more compassionate, equitable world.
Or they apparently drink different water and breath different air than the rest of us. They cared not that their man cut regulations meant protect our water and air, thus giving polluters freer access to defile something all of us need to survive. Hexavalent chromium anyone?
Nor do they care that, say, someone like me who makes far less than the folks they support pays a higher percentage of my income in taxes than people who can afford five houses, expensive Italian sports cars and private jets. For comparison sake, when Romney was running, he paid 16% of his income in taxes. I paid 39%.
Do they not care that we've ceded a leadership role in the world, creating a vacuum that will soon be filled by Russia and China? Or that our democracy -- our very concept of freedom -- is under threat by said hostile nations?
Of course, they do seem to relish the idea that our most important freedoms, those protected by the 1st Amendment, are under attack.
Finally, do they not care that the damage the GOP does to our health care system won't just hurt us "liberal elites," but will also cause great suffering for them as well?
I guess winning to them isn't everything ... it's the only thing. Regardless of the cost to our country and our citizens.
Or they apparently drink different water and breath different air than the rest of us. They cared not that their man cut regulations meant protect our water and air, thus giving polluters freer access to defile something all of us need to survive. Hexavalent chromium anyone?
Nor do they care that, say, someone like me who makes far less than the folks they support pays a higher percentage of my income in taxes than people who can afford five houses, expensive Italian sports cars and private jets. For comparison sake, when Romney was running, he paid 16% of his income in taxes. I paid 39%.
Do they not care that we've ceded a leadership role in the world, creating a vacuum that will soon be filled by Russia and China? Or that our democracy -- our very concept of freedom -- is under threat by said hostile nations?
Of course, they do seem to relish the idea that our most important freedoms, those protected by the 1st Amendment, are under attack.
Finally, do they not care that the damage the GOP does to our health care system won't just hurt us "liberal elites," but will also cause great suffering for them as well?
I guess winning to them isn't everything ... it's the only thing. Regardless of the cost to our country and our citizens.
96
Well said. I still, to this day, cannot fathom why individuals who voted for this abomination of a president completely discounted the lack of ethics of the man? I just don't understand it. A person with no integrity, who believes xenophobic white nationalism is the best way to engage with the rest of the world. For me, if you voted for the man, you carry strains of this same ideology in your heart and mind. It is like a German saying they supported Hitler but don't believe in everything he said and did. You know what? Too bad. If you voted for this man, own it. Stop running and whining.
2
YES!
I know a number of Republicans who are Trump supporters. I asked one of them recently if the stories about collusion with the Russians concerned him; he said, "Not at all," and brought up Hillary's role in selling uranium to the Russians. I have also learned recently that Barack Obama intends to finance his $120 million mausoleum with taxpayer money. Checking the source of this story, I learned that Monica Lewinsky was recently murdered during the robbery of a neighbor's home.
Nothing that Trump does or says will impact the devotion he gets from his base. If Democrats, independents and patriots want to take back this country and give it a future, all efforts should be focused on those who failed to vote in November.
Nothing that Trump does or says will impact the devotion he gets from his base. If Democrats, independents and patriots want to take back this country and give it a future, all efforts should be focused on those who failed to vote in November.
133
HurtsTooMuchToLaugh: Claim: President Obama submitted plans for an opulent, taxpayer-funded burial site.
Claimed by: Last Line of Defense
Fact check by Snopes.com: FALSE
You might want to check that claim a little more closely.
Claimed by: Last Line of Defense
Fact check by Snopes.com: FALSE
You might want to check that claim a little more closely.
2
Seagazer, I think that was the point Hurts was making, his tongue firmly in cheek.
1
There's one born every minute. Sounds like you've spoken to at least 180 seconds' worth. Enlightening stuff. Deadpan (apologies to Ms. Lewinsky) irony appreciated.
1
We NEED more viable parties. Democracy? really, two viable parties?
5
Two viable parties are all that work in our winner take all system. A third party may come in for a while, but the party with the lowest vote count will rather quickly be eliminated. The only way to counter this is to institute ranked voting (though rabid partisans won't usually give a second choice) or a parliamentary system whereby each party gets seats in the legislature based on their percent of the vote.
5
I'm waiting for someone to declare they are running as a 'Fundamental Rights' candidate, with all that entails. Got my vote!
What exactly does "viable parties" mean? Every time that a "viable party" has introduced a candidate it has served to skew the voting and sometimes changing the outcome dramatically. A vote for a third-party candidate is, at best, ineffective and only a protest vote. At worst, the person that a voter most emphatically did-not-want, is the one that wins. See the 2016 vote as an example.
In 1992 Bill Clinton won but only because of the nearly 20% that Ross Perot deprived GHW Bush of receiving. In my state the Democrat won, even though a Democrat had not prevailed since 1964, AND did not win again between 1996 and 2008.
The same thing happened again in 1996, Ross Perot again skewed the vote away from Bob Dole.
Once more it occurred in 2000 because of Ralph Nader.
This time it was because of Jill Stein and Gary Johnson. They both increased their share of the vote substantially from 2012 and all because of those who refused to vote for any but their chosen candidate, who failed to attain the nomination.
The only outcome of a third, or fourth, or seventh, tenth or twentieth party is taking an egg beater and creating a lot of froth.
What we're left with is orange meringue.
In 1992 Bill Clinton won but only because of the nearly 20% that Ross Perot deprived GHW Bush of receiving. In my state the Democrat won, even though a Democrat had not prevailed since 1964, AND did not win again between 1996 and 2008.
The same thing happened again in 1996, Ross Perot again skewed the vote away from Bob Dole.
Once more it occurred in 2000 because of Ralph Nader.
This time it was because of Jill Stein and Gary Johnson. They both increased their share of the vote substantially from 2012 and all because of those who refused to vote for any but their chosen candidate, who failed to attain the nomination.
The only outcome of a third, or fourth, or seventh, tenth or twentieth party is taking an egg beater and creating a lot of froth.
What we're left with is orange meringue.
Delving ever deeper into the polling tea leaves for insights is always chancy, especially if distracts us from the obvious. Among the things I would label "obvious":
1) The president continues to enjoy a stunning level of support from stunningly high proportion of the electorate.
2) His supporters display a stunning level of ignorance.
3) The president is now the face of the Republican Party. He polls higher than congressional Republicans by a substantial margin.
4) The implications of the above have yet to sink in on the Republican establishment.
1) The president continues to enjoy a stunning level of support from stunningly high proportion of the electorate.
2) His supporters display a stunning level of ignorance.
3) The president is now the face of the Republican Party. He polls higher than congressional Republicans by a substantial margin.
4) The implications of the above have yet to sink in on the Republican establishment.
36
Ever since the polling fiascos of 2016 I find it hard to have any confidence whatsoever in the work of current pollsters. It's going to take 2-3 election cycles of accurate polling to change my view. I expect a lot of people feel as I do.
A very simple pair of polling questions I'd like to see asked -
1. "Do you approve, disapprove or feel neutral about President Trump's performance since he entered the White House?"
2. Who did you vote for?
A very simple pair of polling questions I'd like to see asked -
1. "Do you approve, disapprove or feel neutral about President Trump's performance since he entered the White House?"
2. Who did you vote for?
14
The polls were not wrong, they had become very tight during the last week before the election, the predictions made based on the polls were another matter. And by the way--Clinton's margin of votes in the popular vote mirrors the narrow lead she had in the national polls right before the election.
1
The key piece of analysis missing here is the role of primaries in selecting candidates. If Republicans who do not support Donald Trump are leaving the party altogether, those who remain are likely to support pro-Trump candidates in the primaries. Any current Republican member of Congress needs to pay close attention to the Republicans choosing to stay with the party if the member hopes to have his/her appear on the next general election ballot. So, we should expect, at least in the short term, for most sitting Republicans to demonstrate public support for the President even if the broader population is moving away from him.
14
If moderate Republican legislators want to get reelected, from the information in this article, it would behoove them to step away from trump to capture the very possible larger group of moderate Republican voters. Although, they may want to do it after the primary deadlines to avoid being primaried.
This is similar to when people who have given up looking for work stop identifying themselves as "unemployed" -- but wouldn't the solution be to count the currently enrolled Republicans to find out if their number had declined?
What to the "missing Republicans" call themselves? (I could offer some suggestions.....)
What to the "missing Republicans" call themselves? (I could offer some suggestions.....)
12
One problem is that a lot of political affiliation is self-selecting and not about holding an official party card. I know who I vote for, but I am not an official dues paying member of any political party.
:)
:)
This offers a ray of hope in the face of the thoroughly depressing headline from two days ago showing 82% approval of Trump's performance among Republicans, an astonishing number given how unacceptable Trump's behavior and performance has been so far.
The sooner Republicans can recognize that their party has been hijacked long ago by extremists (Bannon, Limbaugh, Fox, Rove, Kochs, etc.) and is no longer a mainstream political party, the better. The country would be far better off with a larger population of Independents, leaving the current iteration of the Republican Party out on the fringes where it is right now, xenophobic, mysoginist, intellectually dishonest, and cruel.
We need honest, non-partisan answers to our nation's issues. The faster people flee the Republican Party, the faster we can get to work on those things.
The sooner Republicans can recognize that their party has been hijacked long ago by extremists (Bannon, Limbaugh, Fox, Rove, Kochs, etc.) and is no longer a mainstream political party, the better. The country would be far better off with a larger population of Independents, leaving the current iteration of the Republican Party out on the fringes where it is right now, xenophobic, mysoginist, intellectually dishonest, and cruel.
We need honest, non-partisan answers to our nation's issues. The faster people flee the Republican Party, the faster we can get to work on those things.
79
A shout out to Grover Norquist "Shrink the GOP until you can drown it in a bathtub".
All lifelong republicans I've known have left the party and gone independent now.
First point: Poll samples are only 1000-2000 people. Second point are questions: Since Trump supporters don't trust the media and other sources of info, why do they need to answer questions from pollsters truthfully? Is this still their way of "sticking it to the establishment"?
Maybe most don't approve of Trump, but they would never let others know that. Because it is hard to admit to oneself and others that one has been conned!
Maybe most don't approve of Trump, but they would never let others know that. Because it is hard to admit to oneself and others that one has been conned!
21
I think it is worth mentioning, here and everywhere that people complain about poll sizes, that regardless of how big your population is, a sample size of 1000-2000 is more than enough to accurately estimate the true proportion of people in a group who belong to some category, whether that be Trump supporters or redheads. It should, in fact, be accurate to within 2-3%. (See here: https://www.surveymonkey.com/mp/margin-of-error-calculator/ and try changing the population size from 50,000 to 3,000,000 -- there is little to no effect)
As long as a population has been randomly sampled, we can obtain a very accurate estimate about a very large population with only a few individuals.
Your second criticism is much more valid, and is one of the main concerns: what if there is a systemic bias in the polling methods? In that case, our estimate WILL be off.
As long as a population has been randomly sampled, we can obtain a very accurate estimate about a very large population with only a few individuals.
Your second criticism is much more valid, and is one of the main concerns: what if there is a systemic bias in the polling methods? In that case, our estimate WILL be off.
20
Although it subverts the Founders' efforts to ensure rational decision-making through the election of informed representatives, Republicans turning a blind eye toward Trump -- even after it's become clear that his campaign worked with a hostile foreign power to get him elected -- certainly seems to be linked to Trump's continuing popularity among his base.
But how does that explain the Republicans' affirmative efforts to make it LESS likely that we'll prevent such interference in upcoming elections, such as their decision to get rid of the federal Election Assistance Committee, which sets federal standards for voting technology?
As surreal as it seems, destroying the EAC is actually one more of many illustrations of Republicans' complicity in the efforts to subvert our democracy -- which have ranged from vote-suppression legislation at the state level, the creation of a "voter-fraud commission" that would achieve the same results at the federal level (and, coincidentally, seeks the same voter-registration information that the Russians obtained by hacking state databases last year), and changing the subject from Trump's warm embrace of the Russians to supposed "unmasking," which is as substance-free as the Benghazi investigations.
But how does that explain the Republicans' affirmative efforts to make it LESS likely that we'll prevent such interference in upcoming elections, such as their decision to get rid of the federal Election Assistance Committee, which sets federal standards for voting technology?
As surreal as it seems, destroying the EAC is actually one more of many illustrations of Republicans' complicity in the efforts to subvert our democracy -- which have ranged from vote-suppression legislation at the state level, the creation of a "voter-fraud commission" that would achieve the same results at the federal level (and, coincidentally, seeks the same voter-registration information that the Russians obtained by hacking state databases last year), and changing the subject from Trump's warm embrace of the Russians to supposed "unmasking," which is as substance-free as the Benghazi investigations.
19
Count me among the number of dyed-in-the-wool Republicans who have fled the party. I used to think the GOP were the grown-ups. The fact that they would sell their birthright of responsible stewardship for a bowl of Trump pottage beggars belief. They have traded integrity for expediency. They are reaping what they have sown.
167
I'm with most of what you say: but WHAT "expediency"?
8
Well, that's the thing. For each one of you, there are 2-3 progressives like me who shifted to the Republican party so we could vote for this President. And we'll turn out again in 2020 for Trump.
1
Shifted from where? Are you and the hordes of shifting progressives who outnumber defecting Republicans two (or three?) to one holding out for a Trump shakeup of the GOP of the drain-the-swamp, no-business-as-usual variety? Happy with that so far? I admire your sanguinity, but anything can happen in three years.
Seems quite a few Gop supporting pundits on TV are anti Trump now. But much of Trump's voter base is so irrational ---and they might not admit they were wrong.
But how important are these polls, since gerrymandering and voter suppression tactics have their effect on elections?
Follow the money---Trump & Friends and Russian oligarchs have long standing relationships. But also follow the money in our own elections---our super rich rich and corporations have long standing relationships with both parties and all candidates platforms, due to the way we fund our elections.
It isn't due to the Russians that the US is the only industrialized nation without universal health care.
But how important are these polls, since gerrymandering and voter suppression tactics have their effect on elections?
Follow the money---Trump & Friends and Russian oligarchs have long standing relationships. But also follow the money in our own elections---our super rich rich and corporations have long standing relationships with both parties and all candidates platforms, due to the way we fund our elections.
It isn't due to the Russians that the US is the only industrialized nation without universal health care.
36
Given what data analytics secured for Hillary Clinton (a losing presidential campaign) articles like this are about as useful as a square wheel, enabling Democrats to whistle through the graveyard of their party, riven between the old guard (aka "losers") and the young, the restless and independents who want nothing to do with the money politics that brought low Hillary.
2
Independents are abandoning Trump in droves. The same old tired diatribe about Clinton may have worked before (with, of course, the able assistance of Putin), but Trump has succeeded in alienating the group of voters most needed by the GOP-Independents. Without that group of voters, the Republican Party is toast.
16
"old guard (aka "losers")" which brought out 4 million more voters than the restless and independents did. (Which the Democratic party allows to vote in their primaries, as opposed to the GOP, which requires Republican registration.) As for whistling, there are 3 million more than ones who voted for the Republican.
The problem is not that the 3rd-place finisher is in the White House. It's that the first-place finisher was 'decline to vote'.
The problem is not that the 3rd-place finisher is in the White House. It's that the first-place finisher was 'decline to vote'.
3
I am not feeling very confident about the legitimacy of our elections going forward when Kris Kobach is wanting more-than-necessary voter registration info, of which most is already public and like another comment here noted about voter suppression and district gerrymandering. Look at how that republican politician reacted in NC when his opponent won? The plutocrat-backed republicans aren't going to cede their power without a fight, in which we as citizens may have to become as thuggish as the Russian mobsters who have been laundering money through Trump Inc's real estate all of these years.
34
The Republicans chose to stick with Trump, for better or worse. He has given them an opportunity to govern, but they're unable to capitalize. The biggest problem with that is the conservative base will likely side with Trump and blame Republican legislators for the lack of meaningful legislation. Healthcare, a budget that sets a real direction and immigration are all in the hands of the Republican Party. As these fail in the eyes of the base, the legislators will need to think even more about their loyalties.
9
There's something deeply wrong with a president who stubbornly clings to his small demographic base at the expense of alienating, and ignoring the rest of the country.
And judging from what we've seen from the overwhelmingly, white, Republican, low-working class individuals who throng his rallies, it's hard not to get the feeling that we're seeing the picture that Trump refuses to.
Polls may have been off the mark before, but after that fiasco of a G.O.P. helath plan, it's not surprising that now even Trump's base of support has started to turn.
And judging from what we've seen from the overwhelmingly, white, Republican, low-working class individuals who throng his rallies, it's hard not to get the feeling that we're seeing the picture that Trump refuses to.
Polls may have been off the mark before, but after that fiasco of a G.O.P. helath plan, it's not surprising that now even Trump's base of support has started to turn.
28
There's always going to be a hardcore knot of do or die for him. Very depressing because they hate and despise facts and he's given them the out on that by calling it fake news. At this point that means an ignorant minority has outsized influence on the rest of the country. Watch the rural areas. That's where they are. That givew them a lot of power in upcoming elections.
1
It's worth looking at the Gallup polling on this question, which does a monthly poll of whether people identify as Republican, Democrat, or Independent.
The consistent winner is Independents. Both Republicans and Democrats go up and down a few points each month. In the past year and a half, both have broken 30% a few times, and gone as low as 25 more than once.
There does not appear to be a consistent pattern.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
The consistent winner is Independents. Both Republicans and Democrats go up and down a few points each month. In the past year and a half, both have broken 30% a few times, and gone as low as 25 more than once.
There does not appear to be a consistent pattern.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
10
We need the percentage identifying as Republicans to keep getting drained rapidly into other pools, Independents, since most Republicans would rather die than call themselves Democrats. It's still the rural areas that will leave the party last and that means they have a lot of power to keep a lot of Republicans in office.
3
All polls, especially close polls are imperfect because you have to make assumptions about how people who voted last election (in 2012) would vote in 2016. In 4-5 key states the pollsters got it wrong by a small percentage and that was enough for them to get their predictions wrong and trump won thanks to the weighted electoral college system.
But post election it seems clear that most of his supporters and party loyalists don't have the intelligence or integrity to admit they were wrong. They wanted a fascist and that's what they got. And most will never vote democrat.
It's evident their choice is destroying the country, so the rest of us have to try and vote and live as sanely as possible to give our nation a chance. Infuriating but what can we do.
But post election it seems clear that most of his supporters and party loyalists don't have the intelligence or integrity to admit they were wrong. They wanted a fascist and that's what they got. And most will never vote democrat.
It's evident their choice is destroying the country, so the rest of us have to try and vote and live as sanely as possible to give our nation a chance. Infuriating but what can we do.
44
It was former Obama voters who got tired of zero economic growth and zero jobs who put Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania into the Trump column.
When you sit crying and scream that all the other side's voters are either stupid, mean, or ''fascist'' - a word you do not know - you are talking about the people who gave Barack the Failure his chances.
HOW do you know when a person knows they are losing the argument? When their political opponents are repeatedly defined as mean or racist or aliens or too stupid to know better.
When you sit crying and scream that all the other side's voters are either stupid, mean, or ''fascist'' - a word you do not know - you are talking about the people who gave Barack the Failure his chances.
HOW do you know when a person knows they are losing the argument? When their political opponents are repeatedly defined as mean or racist or aliens or too stupid to know better.
1
I'm going the other direction. As a proud progressive liberal who has never voted "R", I'm considering becoming a Republican in 3 years so I can vote against our Anti-President in the primaries. Sadly, I don't trust Congress to do what's right and impeach. I'm happy to be a proud RINO and advocate liberal and progressive causes from the inside.
114
This can be a good idea especially good idea in those far right states where the Dems have no power whatsoever, and the Republicans have to have both a left and right wing.
10
I was thinking the exact same thing!
1
I would suggest that to all people, regardless of party, who live in what are essentially one party states. Be sure to check your state's time requirements for switching registration. Some require as much as six months before an election to switch and vote in the next election.
People also need to understand that party registration only affects primary voting.
In the general election it makes no difference about your party registration. You can pull the lever for any candidate on the ballot.
People also need to understand that party registration only affects primary voting.
In the general election it makes no difference about your party registration. You can pull the lever for any candidate on the ballot.
4
Everyone I know that supported Trump has gone silent over the last couple months.
200
Have they ever! The first ones to shut up were the ones with the biggest mouths.
Same here. If it looks, acts, walks and talks like a duck then it's a...? Money laundering treasonous mobster wannabe. Oh, but anything was better than Hillary.
I'll say it again: Here in northern Illinois, in my circle of acquaintances, Trump supporters have not changed at all. They are still drinking the kool aid and watch only FOX news and believe every word they read in Breitbart or hear come out of Hannity's mouth. It's a mental illness, in my casual estimation.
1
The big take-away from 2016 cannot be mentioned in the corporate media: two outsider candidates ran - one did unbelievably well against an insider candidate who had the backing of her party bosses and the media. The other outsider candidate eviscerated a primary field of insider candidates and won the election.
The electorate is clearly fed up with the status quo.
The electorate is clearly fed up with the status quo.
26
I honestly think that a lot of people who are "fed up with the status quo" are only saying so because they've heard it so much that they have taken it on as a stance. When I question these "fed up" people, not one has yet to give a rational reason for being so disgruntled. Mostly their answers are fallbacks on platitudes and what they've been fed by Fox News.
2
Yeah, you're right - there's nothing to complain about, just soul-crushing inequality, over half of our discretionary budget going to war, an opioid epidemic, global warming, stagnant wages.
The residents in my staunchly Republican neighborhood refuse to talk about Trump and the GOP any longer. They've suddenly realized that the policies they voted for are going to end up hurting them. Oddly, they didn't believe that before.
308
I've had the opposite experience. Real, dyed in the wool Trump supporters jump at the chance to recite their talking points and vilify Obama and Hillary and Bernie. They have not altered their behavior one bit, and their minds are still firmly locked down in the manner of a 5-year-old screaming nyahhhhh to avoid hearing a voice of reason. I know this is anecdotal evidence, and a very small sample, but I know these people, and there is no hope for them. None.
18
I find this analysis very interesting, because I've worked with a lot of statistics over the years. The results always required much scrutiny and proper interpretation to be of any value.
So if the premise of the article is correct, the polls don't identify Reps, Dems or NPAs, and have no insight into respondents' changing party affiliation, it's a setup to misunderstand the sentiment.
The other important factors are cell phones, caller ID, and the reticence to answer calls from unknown callers, especially among millennials and the tech literati.
So I agree! The support among the base could be seriously overestimated.
So if the premise of the article is correct, the polls don't identify Reps, Dems or NPAs, and have no insight into respondents' changing party affiliation, it's a setup to misunderstand the sentiment.
The other important factors are cell phones, caller ID, and the reticence to answer calls from unknown callers, especially among millennials and the tech literati.
So I agree! The support among the base could be seriously overestimated.
69
It takes time to admit having made a mistake. Hopefully Trump supporters are gradually realizing their error.
93
Some people are always right, even (maybe especially) when they're wrong. Ask anyone who voted to re-elect W.
1
Trumps base is a very loud minority, not even close to a silent majority.
81
Big enough to carry him to the Presidency!!
1
Friction sells. It sells newspapers, TV ads and politicians. Until you figure out an accurate way to quantify the effect of 24/7 Trump Trump Trump in the media your analysis has a blind spot and he will continue to confound your analysis.
11
He confounds no one, except perhaps his lawyers. I am sure they are daily confounded by his refusal to follow their advice, as well as his total ignorance about the federal laws by which he is required to govern.
2
Cigarettes used to be insanely popular; now they're widely shunned. I hope Trump doesn't have to kill as many people as smoking did before Republicans see the light.
2
All the high crimes and misdemeanors that DJT & Co. have committed and will commit are peripheral to and derive from the central fact of this matter which is that Trump is supported by and has been laundering money for the Russian Mob. That is the starting point.
222
And yet this fact doesn't seem to phase his base. Does it bother those who are on the fence? If not, we have to find something else to pinpoint, since his connection to the Russians is viewed as "fake news" by the right wing.
2
NYT, WAPO, WSJ, CNN, MSNBC etc. should focus on the MONEY LAUNDERING because that is what all of this Trump/Russia business is going to boil down to. DJT is the Russian Mob's billionaire pal in the US and he owes them. "Follow the money."
396
And that is exactly why Trump is scared of Bob Meuller just as he was of James Comey. When Trumps money trail with the Russians comes out, he could be in a lot of legal soup.
2
The Special Counsel already is doing this. Among the attorneys he has hired are a couple expert in money laundering cases.
1
Does anyone else sigh with longing, recalling that when Nixon's notorious tapes were finally disclosed, many of the Republican base reported themselves disillusioned? Not by the break-in, nor by the cover-up, nor the obstruction of the investigation, but by Nixon's shocking (to good Republicans) use of profanity?
Now THOSE are what I call Republicans!
Now THOSE are what I call Republicans!
140
Good point. Nixon's numbers also fell because of problems with the economy but people SAID they were defecting because of Watergate revelations or things like profanity. I suppose the moral is to not believe reasons given by Republicans even when they counterintuitively do the right thing.
11
Nixon was a horror, but I'll bet if he heard the way Donald Trump talks about women the old Quaker would haul off and punch our so-called president in the nose. And I'd applaud.
3
I am Technic Ally, and I disapprove of this president.
46
Are you related to Christie Ally, who shut down those GW bridge lanes?
2
How does this play out specifically in the states that flipped Republican in the presidential election- Ohio, Wisconsin etc? Those are the only votes that matter (sadly).
57
Wisconsin was won by DJT(a few thousand votes) because of strict voter suppression laws engineered by Scott Walker. We need to get rid of him in the next election. He has seriously hurt this once proud progressive state.
7
Bottom line if Trump came out and said Hitler wasn't such a bad guy, 40% of the country would still support him.
All you need is a flawed, identity obsessed, establishment candidate like Hillary to get Trump's numbers into the 45-50% range and get re elected.
There are other wild cards they can hurt him, economy collapse (or help him the reverse), a real blunder like getting us into a no win war or worse but the bottom line is what I said above.
All you need is a flawed, identity obsessed, establishment candidate like Hillary to get Trump's numbers into the 45-50% range and get re elected.
There are other wild cards they can hurt him, economy collapse (or help him the reverse), a real blunder like getting us into a no win war or worse but the bottom line is what I said above.
28
He may have won against Hillary for the reasons you list above, but he also beat a huge field of Republican candidates in the primary. They covered a wide range of conservative thought and experience, but he smashed them all. Hillary is not enough, by a long shot, to explain the current pathology in Republicans' traditional base.
17
Thank you for your reply Emma. I agree to a great deal.
Progressives look at it like pathology but that is only true of a relatively small amount, maybe 10%, racists, bigots or worse.
A great deal of the others are republicans who are socially conservative, a bit concerned that America is becoming less and less white and will hold their noses and support a demagogue like Trump but they are not out and out racists. They prefer to live around whites and not blacks but believe in equality between the races.
The small moderate wing that put Trump over the top are those that are truly concerned with good paying blue collar jobs going to slave labor countries, wall street running wild and wars that have no reason to get into.
Progressives look at it like pathology but that is only true of a relatively small amount, maybe 10%, racists, bigots or worse.
A great deal of the others are republicans who are socially conservative, a bit concerned that America is becoming less and less white and will hold their noses and support a demagogue like Trump but they are not out and out racists. They prefer to live around whites and not blacks but believe in equality between the races.
The small moderate wing that put Trump over the top are those that are truly concerned with good paying blue collar jobs going to slave labor countries, wall street running wild and wars that have no reason to get into.
3
Tired f the statistical conjecture, ever since the media predicted Clinton would take the presidency with a 95% assurance figure. Please.
If we have learned nothing else from the November 2016 election it's that the ONLY poll that counts is the one that actually takes place in the voting booth.
This Democrat eagerly await the results of that poll in 2018.
If we have learned nothing else from the November 2016 election it's that the ONLY poll that counts is the one that actually takes place in the voting booth.
This Democrat eagerly await the results of that poll in 2018.
101
Don't you mean in the Electoral College? The actual citizens' vote doesn't matter, or he wouldn't be fouling the office.
Ha haaa !!!! Coming soon: Dump Trump.
22
Already in re-runs in most markets.
1
Does Trump have an agenda other than, "Look me! Look me!" I don't think so. The Republican leadership has the "agenda" and they are willing to continue "looking" to implement that agenda.
67
Yeah. His agenda is to use the position of POTUS to get yet more easy money.
The rest of us are his chumps.
I mean, look at this guy- he never punched a time clock or caught an early train in his whole life.
The rest of us are his chumps.
I mean, look at this guy- he never punched a time clock or caught an early train in his whole life.
4
When Trump is re-elected in a landslide, pollsters will be baffled. "But our surveys showed that Kamala Harris was up by 4 points in every key state!"
11
The 2016 polls were 100% accurate. The problem was with people who can't read polls and don't understand them. A week before the election it was obvious trump would probably win
11
I detest 45, but this is revisionist history. The day before the election, 538 had Clinton with a 2/3 probability of winning the electoral college. The problem was likely due to the limited number of polls taken after Comey's devastating public red herring announcement of reopening the email bucket of nothingness.
61
The polls were tightening in the days leading up to Election Day, but Clinton still had a just-outside-the-margin-of-error edge in enough states that it was assumed she would win.
The problem was that most of her support was soft support -- people who would vote for her but weren't jumping out of bed in the morning to do it. When Comey re-opened the email investigation, I think that caused a lot of her soft support to throw up their hands and just stay home.
The problem was that most of her support was soft support -- people who would vote for her but weren't jumping out of bed in the morning to do it. When Comey re-opened the email investigation, I think that caused a lot of her soft support to throw up their hands and just stay home.
76
I think that the GOP's biggest problem right now is that it has committed itself to strict partisanship. In such a regime, the citizens who are not GOP voters are considered either as irrelevant or even as enemies. This kind of party discipline can be very powerful, but only if you can maintain 51% of the vote.
The partisan-conservative bloc in the GOP, which I think of as belonging more to Ryan and McConnell than to Trump, has become the GOP's Achilles' heel. If the GOP loses this bloc, no more 51%. The GOP would then have to compromise with the Democrats. Meanwhile the Democrats are gradually learning the power of being united. Gestures like taking a healthcare bill from the Heritage Institute will not be forthcoming. I suspect that any turnaround by the GOP from confrontation to cooperation will be very difficult and lengthy.
The partisan-conservative bloc in the GOP, which I think of as belonging more to Ryan and McConnell than to Trump, has become the GOP's Achilles' heel. If the GOP loses this bloc, no more 51%. The GOP would then have to compromise with the Democrats. Meanwhile the Democrats are gradually learning the power of being united. Gestures like taking a healthcare bill from the Heritage Institute will not be forthcoming. I suspect that any turnaround by the GOP from confrontation to cooperation will be very difficult and lengthy.
57
Or they can just dig their heels in and continue to gerrymander election districts to oblivion and pursue "election integrity" measures. They don't need 51% of the vote to win, as evident from the 2016 election.
Even in the 2012 election, the Democrats received more raw votes for House of Representatives, but the Republicans held control by more than 30 seats.
Even in the 2012 election, the Democrats received more raw votes for House of Representatives, but the Republicans held control by more than 30 seats.
149
That is why the Supreme Court accepting jurisdiction in the most recent gerrymandering case is going to be critical to our democracy. This year the Court rejected North Carolina's argument that so long as gerrymandering is done for political reasons (even if it has a racial impact), it is constitutionally permissible. Significantly, Justice Thomas joined the majority opinion. The GOP has been using gerrymandering for years as a way to cling to power. It appears those days may be coming to an end.
7
I think the GOP has become more of a cult with cult followers who don't question anything the GOP or Trump says despite the hypocrisy and lies. Spoon fed by Fox/Breitbart/Rush et. al, they have no real concept of reality and what's really going on.
2
You point could be well made without invoking a media "star". Please.
8
Fake news
Trump's victory confounded the numbers guys, and in the special elections since then Trump's candidate has won 4 of 5.
There have been articles on how the "majority" of Republican voters are against the GOP replacement of ACA, while the same articles say 56% say they don't have an opinion.
The reality is we have no idea what people think right now, and throwing in anecdotes like Morning Joe's party change to Independent is pretty meaningless.
We elect by state, not by total percentage. We elect based on a choice between alternatives not based on one side of an argument.
Why is our polling national and abstract?
Anyone who voted for the disaster of a person like Trump can hardly be a predictable voter. How is that factored in?
And how could so, so many appear to vote against their own interests for this horror? And how could so many stay home and not vote at all?
The numbers guys need to regroup. We need new tools to measure voters.
Trump's victory confounded the numbers guys, and in the special elections since then Trump's candidate has won 4 of 5.
There have been articles on how the "majority" of Republican voters are against the GOP replacement of ACA, while the same articles say 56% say they don't have an opinion.
The reality is we have no idea what people think right now, and throwing in anecdotes like Morning Joe's party change to Independent is pretty meaningless.
We elect by state, not by total percentage. We elect based on a choice between alternatives not based on one side of an argument.
Why is our polling national and abstract?
Anyone who voted for the disaster of a person like Trump can hardly be a predictable voter. How is that factored in?
And how could so, so many appear to vote against their own interests for this horror? And how could so many stay home and not vote at all?
The numbers guys need to regroup. We need new tools to measure voters.
219
"...in the special elections since then Trump's candidate has won 4 of 5."
True. But I believe each candidate won by a lower percentage than Trump's margin in 2016. Which would indicate that Trump has energized his opponents more than his supporters.
True. But I believe each candidate won by a lower percentage than Trump's margin in 2016. Which would indicate that Trump has energized his opponents more than his supporters.
23
Zak44 - maybe. Or maybe in an off year election the opposition always does better.
But not better enough in these elections.
But not better enough in these elections.
" We need new tools to measure voters." There, you said it.
Let's hope their leaving the GOP manifests itself in congressional votes in 2018.
164