So much for making America great again! Except, of course, for those already economically "super-comfortable" who will reap the gains from tax cuts and deregulation!
8
The perfect trifecta for slow/no economic growth in a consumer-driven economy: trickle down national budgeting; trickle-down national tax planning; trickle-down national health care policy. Throw in a dash of trickle down monetary policy by the Fed to seal the deal.
3
People who are health care insecure, wage insecure, interest rate insecure, education and opportunity insecure do not go out and spend money. The economy is still waiting for the explosion of unemployed as the cutting and gutting planned by the GOP and the proposed budget begins to take effect. College enrollment continues to decline as young people are wary of the additional debt DeVos has planned and the instability of technical careers and cutting edge science is denigrated by an ignorant administration. The promise of employment futures is uncertain.
6
I think people mistaken in their belief that the economy is driven by consumer spending. People don’t just spend money because they have it. Consumers spend money on things they want. New technology is what drives people to want new things. When the television was invented, people went out and bought televisions which spawned new industries that employ people. When the Wright Brothers flew the first airplane it led to new industries and more spending. The personal computer was another thing. Spending doesn’t just happen. There has to be a demand for something. It’s technology that creates the demand that leads to the spending. Our economy is slow because it's been awhile since we've seen new technologies that create a lot of demand. But, Donald Trump is making a mistake by looking to old industries for the growth he wants. He's not going to find it.
4
A high growth economy is driven mainly by scientific discovery and technological innovation. Trump is looking backwards to old industries like coal and steel for growth. This will get America nowhere. He should have doubled down on America’s commitment to the Paris Accord rather than withdrawing America from it. It would have been great for Pittsburgh.
4
No "Trump Bump"? Do not despair. Trump Lump is on its way; expect coal by Christmas- especially for Trump believers who hang Christmas stocking and believe in Santa. Coal is what Trump promised. Do not say that a portly and aging man does not deliver. Unfortunately Trump's lump of coal cannot deliver any significant economic bump.
12
Except during recessions. presidents have very little control over the performance of the overall economy. Moreover, growth rates of 2 percent are still highly respectable for advanced economies like the USA. Trump will be fortunate if that level continues during his tenure in office.
3
Is the NYT complaining that GDP isn't at 3%?
Under Obamanomics we didn't crack 2 percent!!!!
Under Obamanomics we didn't crack 2 percent!!!!
Allowing for the typical time of one year from policy implementation to effects on economic growth, Obama has given us roughly 2.1% annual GDP growth. Congress has accomplished nothing of economic significance this year, and we are still in the Obama economy.
1
Obama inherited the worst Recession in many decades . . . Trump inherited a robust economy.
2
So how long do all of the Trump fans wait for the promise of 3% to be fulfilled??
1
"people expected the economy to grow faster after *45 was elected"
Who? Trumparrots? Because he said so? Because he tweeted thus?
Democrats have their work cut out for them. If they steadfastly hold to the mantra "economy, stupid" and advocate better job opportunities in the midwest and drive an economic agenda which brings some parity in the middle to lower middle classes of society versus the uber wealthy, then can take control from the just awful *45 and the bizarro ideologues in the House.
If they instead place #1 focus on climate change, gay marriage, no guns, etc etc (not that these are bad issues by any means) typical of the liberal bubble, they will continue to be marginalized.
A change in leadership from Pelosi to someone from the midwest would help.
Who? Trumparrots? Because he said so? Because he tweeted thus?
Democrats have their work cut out for them. If they steadfastly hold to the mantra "economy, stupid" and advocate better job opportunities in the midwest and drive an economic agenda which brings some parity in the middle to lower middle classes of society versus the uber wealthy, then can take control from the just awful *45 and the bizarro ideologues in the House.
If they instead place #1 focus on climate change, gay marriage, no guns, etc etc (not that these are bad issues by any means) typical of the liberal bubble, they will continue to be marginalized.
A change in leadership from Pelosi to someone from the midwest would help.
1
Surely, the Chieftain declared, if we all do the no-tax dance right the income drought will go away and wealth will start trickling down.
4
I sold all my stocks a few months ago. This Trump rally is most obviously bogus. Add together Trump's incompetence with the simple fact that Republicans administrations and legislation,post Reagan, have always led to faltering economies and anemic or worse equity gains. We are still riding off the winds of the Obama policies, the best we can hope for is that Trump's chaos keeps the Republicans from instituting their destructive policies. But really our economy has had a demand problem for sometime. With all the cash in the hands of so few there simply isn't enough in the hands of people who need goods and services, all the legislation on the table right now will just make this problem worse.
8
chris cantwell, so did I. Bought a new car and put the rest in a savings account. Who knows when the Trump Slump will come? I'm too old to wait to find out.
"His policies...."? Trump has policies?
9
The only Trump bump we will see is the one that gives us whip lash when we find out we have been conned by the best.
7
Find out? A heckuva a lot of us - millions, 3 million, at least - were well aware of what this con man said, promised, would do. We didn't need to "find out." We knew.
You made your bed of nails when you elected this idiot America, now you lie on it and no one feels sorry for you.
16
When the upcoming Trump slump comes to middle America, who will he blame it on, Obama? Oh, by the way, I am still searching for those Keystone pipeline jobs, and all the jobs that were to be generated by repairing our outdated infrastructure.
13
Now that Trump's taken full ownership of the economy by slapping himself on the back for progress made by Obama, he'll have to own the bad news when it comes out. Wait, we're talking about Donald Trump. Never mind. He'll claim it's a deep-state conspiracy to undermine his Presidency. And 65 million dunderhead Americans will believe him.
12
Look what is happening with Germany. They make all the trade deals with China while American Tax payers are assuring the safety and security of Europe. Without America NATO will collapse in a second and Russia will feast on them. Current trade with Germany is a one sided affair, Germany enjoys a huge trade surplus. Why? Sick and tired of these bad deals. Our leaders are pathetic. This needs to change. We need fair trade deals.
1
Exports and imports between US and China are in the hundreds of billions per year. Why do you have a grudge against Europe trading with China? Especially Trump has telegraphed to our NATO allies that he's more interested in making deals with Putin?
1
Trump will say the numbers are wrong. More jobs and growth than ever in the history of the world was achieved under his reign. Wait until his third term and we will see such beautiful fantastic growth we will be sick of it.
10
How can this be so? What about all those Keystone jobs? And didn't Trump bring back Detroit? And those air conditioning jobs that he saved? What about those?
12
Just imagine if FDIC-guaranteed instruments such as CDs earned even 4% now. Many baby boomers like me, those who have managed to save some money, would happily accept that rate of return in order to shed risk. We'd exit the stock market and then what next? Republicans want a casino economy. It fits in with their love of chaos and ensures that the house (small h) always wins. Meanwhile, the bond market isn't much better. My Puerto Rico general bond that came due on July 1, supposedly backed by the full faith of the US government, has defaulted.
5
And his 7 or 8 factories overseas! Hasn't he brought those back? There's another 742 jobs right there! Which states did he place those in... I haven't heard. Hmmm...
4
And Trump will say: "Growing the economy is complicated."
9
Are you really scraping an empty bottle for leftovers to show Trump isn't helping economy much? Because I am not sure that story comes out clear.
Looks to me everything is going just fine and is just a question of semantics or details for 'economist'.
On the whole please do not make mountain out of a mole
Looks to me everything is going just fine and is just a question of semantics or details for 'economist'.
On the whole please do not make mountain out of a mole
It was going just fine before Trump but maybe the higher insurance healthcare premiums that are sure to come down the pike have stunted the recovered economy from the previous administration. Remember too, Trump is not filling needed jobs in the administration. Check out all the VA hospitals who have been waiting and waiting to hire the extra help. Can't blame that on anyone other than Trump who has been slow in filling positions. He can't blame the Democrats because he has not given the go ahead on hires. Ask Mr. Tillorson....he has had to have a few fits to get staff. Hey, he golfs on the weekend don't bother him.
4
Knowing Trump - he will just make growth numbers and his followers watching FOX will believe those numbers to be true - because Hannity and Newt said it so.
9
Nobody is objected to trade. But, we cannot continue to have foolish trade deals that enriches one party. We must not agree to any trade deal where once country enjoys a huge trade surplus like that with China where China drains 500 billions dollars from US every year. I call it stupid deal and American middle-class is getting wiped out by these deals. It seems NYtimes and other liberal media doesnt care. Why cant we have a trade deal with China where we enjoys a 100 billion dollar trade surplus, sorry, China will never allow that to happen.
1
If you don't like the trade deficit with China, don't buy anything made in China. If everyone did this, we would have a surplus.
10
Thanks for sharing, Igor. Work on your English a little and you might fool someone.
7
The differential in trade between us and China is entirely of our own doing and no amount of negotiations, no amount of tariffs, no amount of policy, no amount of Walmart Made in the USA cheerleading will change that. Apple's iPhone can only be sold at a market friendly price while Apple sits on $300 billion in cash if, and only if, they are built by people making $12 a day. No one, not a single soul, in this country will do that. Raise the wage and the phone is priced our if reach, leading to declining sales. Accept lower profits per unit and one half of your investors will flee the stock while the other half become activists who sweep out the BoD.
3
The "Trump Bump" is fake news . . . it's a falsehood used by professional finance people (Wilber Ross, Steve Mnuchin, etc) to entice unsophisticated "investors" to pour their money into the over-valued stock market . . . in other words, it's simply a cover for the age old "Pump and Dump" scheme employed by Wall Street professionals for decades.
7
Too, too early, give it a little time; remember, the Lefties are fighting the President on all sides, the Liberal Media most heavily!
1
Dear honorable confused Senior: the only person fighting the President (on all sides) is the President himself. When you contradict yourself in the same sentence who needs the Liberal Media to translate. Like, Obama didn't do enough to stop the Russian meddling during the 2016 election, but Russia's meddling is a witch hunt fabricated by the crooked press.
9
Honor Senior, please identify one thing Democrats or liberals have done to stop any Trump legislation or executive order intended to boos the economy. I know you cannot do so because Democrats lack the power to do so. So explain how liberals are stopping Trump on enacting economic plans.
7
Trump says that he is worth over $10B. He is a Republican in a Republican controlled Congress. The democrats have no power so how exactly are we causing problems?
Seriously -
"Trump Bump" not happening-
Did anyone think otherwise?
"Trump Bump" not happening-
Did anyone think otherwise?
7
Our once progressive State of Wisconsin is now completely under Republican control. Republican Scott Walker ran on the platform in 2010 of creating 250,000 jobs in his first term. Then he was re-elected in 2014 even though he didn't come close in meeting his self-imposed job requirement. Now 2017 is half over and the Republicans still haven't created anywhere near 250,000 jobs. So it's all slogans and "alternative facts" just to get elected. I can't imagine anyone actually believing Trump's economic forecasts. It's a crying shame that voters have such short-term memories.
35
Growth will come only after changes to our tax structure both on the individual and corporate sides of the equation.
On the individual side, we must simplify the current code by eliminating most of the loop holes that do nothing for the economy or productivity and actually do more to encourage bad behavior. Next we broaden the base and reduce the current 5 brackets to 3, with the largest reduction going to the middle class segment. Gone are the days when someone can make $50M and pay zero in federal taxes and gone are the days when you need an army of accounts to do your taxes.
Next we do the same on the corporate side. Eliminate deductions and narrow the tax bands. Stop polices that prevent corporations from brining profits generated overseas back to America. Create the an environment where corporations what to be headquartered in the US and not in Ireland.
And lastly get our economic house in order by focusing on the deficit which will require making changes to entitlement programs namely Medicare and Social Security. However the changes can be structured so that they are not draconian and phase in over time.
What all of this will take however is unbridled leadership in the House, the Senate and at the Presidential level. Partisan scared cows must not be taken off the table and everyone must work together for the benefit of the country and the American people.
On the individual side, we must simplify the current code by eliminating most of the loop holes that do nothing for the economy or productivity and actually do more to encourage bad behavior. Next we broaden the base and reduce the current 5 brackets to 3, with the largest reduction going to the middle class segment. Gone are the days when someone can make $50M and pay zero in federal taxes and gone are the days when you need an army of accounts to do your taxes.
Next we do the same on the corporate side. Eliminate deductions and narrow the tax bands. Stop polices that prevent corporations from brining profits generated overseas back to America. Create the an environment where corporations what to be headquartered in the US and not in Ireland.
And lastly get our economic house in order by focusing on the deficit which will require making changes to entitlement programs namely Medicare and Social Security. However the changes can be structured so that they are not draconian and phase in over time.
What all of this will take however is unbridled leadership in the House, the Senate and at the Presidential level. Partisan scared cows must not be taken off the table and everyone must work together for the benefit of the country and the American people.
1
Yeah, I can envision growth of 4 to 5 percent in a perfect world. But, last I checked, this ain't it.
4
Are we not a culture of instant gratification? Commenting on our current president’s progress in growing GDP at this stage in the process is premature. As we transition through the infancy of the information age, I can easily envision an economic growth of 4 to 5 percent. Limits impeding the growth are, parasitic corruption, government debt, big government burdensome regulation, an archaic tax system, lack of highly skilled workers, lack of vision on the part of our leadership, and instability, political and economic.
2
I am interested to know why you think these "big government burdensome regulations" were put initially into place? Also, can you name one country in the world low on the Gini Index with high HDI that lacks regulations sufficient to your taste?
3
Not to worry. Once the healthcare bill passes and the 1% get their tax breaks, the money will come trickling down, growth will soar and all will be well. And, if not, it's Obama's fault.
32
Actually in the proposed bill since the reversal of capital gains taxes is retroactive to 2016 (yes LAST year)...it is quite literally a government handout, welfare to the very rich.
But it is all right because the poor folks, elderly and children don't need preventative care, it's so much cheaper to let it become traumatic care. Why have tax dollars help pay for a checkup when we may pay for open heart surgery, late-stage cancer or leukemia, etc. instead?
But it is all right because the poor folks, elderly and children don't need preventative care, it's so much cheaper to let it become traumatic care. Why have tax dollars help pay for a checkup when we may pay for open heart surgery, late-stage cancer or leukemia, etc. instead?
6
And, the only insurance that we will collect on is our life insurance.
1
From what I've read, the capital gains tax cut for the wealthy in the House and Senate health bills is retroactive to January 1, 2017, not to gains realized in 2016. See below, among other articles.
https://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/6/23/1674583/-The-completely-gratuit...
https://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/6/23/1674583/-The-completely-gratuit...
I'm more worried that a Trump bump might include a Nuke from North Korea. I find that much more likely than 4%-5% growth rate.
Let's get real that kind of growth would have to be driven by consumer spending and with the bottom 90% still experiencing stagnation in wages, that is not in the cards unless it is done with a giant debt bubble. Wait didn't we just do that the last time Republicans controlled everything. Yikes let's not do that again.
Let's get real that kind of growth would have to be driven by consumer spending and with the bottom 90% still experiencing stagnation in wages, that is not in the cards unless it is done with a giant debt bubble. Wait didn't we just do that the last time Republicans controlled everything. Yikes let's not do that again.
17
The Trump Slump. Coming soon, unless you are rich. Very rich, as in hidden offshore accounts and " investments ".
15
Donald is the answer to the " question " of white male supremacy.
The final answer, for all time.
The final answer, for all time.
4
Ironically, or maybe just stupidly, Trump and his cronies want to cut the Federal workforce by 30%. Great idea - throw people out of work when what you really want is more people working.
Remember, Republicans have never, ever demonstrated any competence in economic policy. And none apparent these days.
Remember, Republicans have never, ever demonstrated any competence in economic policy. And none apparent these days.
29
Of course, President Knucklehead will lie and say that this isn't true. He'll make
up a story, the way he did with the Carrier company and give alternative facts, the way he always does. Don't believe a word out of his mouth.
up a story, the way he did with the Carrier company and give alternative facts, the way he always does. Don't believe a word out of his mouth.
17
Perhaps if America can somehow package and market it's current greatest resource, stupidity, it can once again be great.
11
Trump needs the economy to do much better to save the house and senate from going to the democrats.
4
Guess the economy got sick of winning, too.
13
A con man is usually successful not because he has a magic formula, but because people are too ignorant and stupid to get their facts and do their homework, and because these people truly want to believe the con man will come through for them. Trump promised outrageous economic growth during his presidential campaign, and lots of people were suckered. Likewise, Trump's promise to balance the budget while offering ridiculous tax breaks to the wealthy is based on pure fantasy. God help us when so many Americans are too lazy to save themselves and will believe anything they are told without any critical assessment.
18
Make America Great Again!
Oops!
Was 2016 a Con Job or what.
Three and a half years to go.
Enjoy.
Oops!
Was 2016 a Con Job or what.
Three and a half years to go.
Enjoy.
7
Campaign fundraisers started. You need funds to fix an election.
4
Duh! Did anyone really believe that Donny Bonespurs would boost the economy? He's such a con artist, full of hot air. Reality eventually catches up to him.
I thought it very amusing that Trump's supporters credit him with setting new stock markets highs, not mentioning that Obama was the guy who brought the Dow back from 7,000 to 17,000. It's like Hank Aaron's brother, Tommy, saying that between he and Hank, they combined for 768 home runs in the majors.
I thought it very amusing that Trump's supporters credit him with setting new stock markets highs, not mentioning that Obama was the guy who brought the Dow back from 7,000 to 17,000. It's like Hank Aaron's brother, Tommy, saying that between he and Hank, they combined for 768 home runs in the majors.
12
exposes POTUS for the fake that he is - all mouth and no brain.
9
All brand 'n no value
1
Fake news!
2
Nothing about the effects of trade wars on the economy with action on Chinese steel expected soon????
4
Thinking that Trump in the White House would produce 4% growth is magical thinking. Chaos is never a good thing for an economy so I would say the best we can hope for is 1-2 % growth for the short term and an even money bet of worse.
10
Kinda hard to have greater economic growth when the labor forced is shrinking and consumer demand is down (due to shrinking labor force). Trump will never see 3%, let alone 4%, probably not even 2.5% growth. It is more likely there will be another recession or at least a slowdown. Not his fault. But nothing he can do about it either, despite all his blathering. Sorry trumpers, your jobs are not coming back...better find something else to do, or a new place where there are jobs.
here is what an economist said would get us to 3% growth:
Allow 40 million or so immigrants over 10 years.
OR
Raise retirement age to 75
OR
New inventions comparable in effect to the Dot Com boom x2
Any takers?
here is what an economist said would get us to 3% growth:
Allow 40 million or so immigrants over 10 years.
OR
Raise retirement age to 75
OR
New inventions comparable in effect to the Dot Com boom x2
Any takers?
8
How would raising retirement age spur growth?
3
Keep people working longer, paying more taxes; delaying social security payments, and keep workers with valuable knowledge (like how to assemble a Boeing jet) on the line longer.
5
Who will employ those 40,000,000 immigrants if the workforce puts in 23% more years working (22-75 vs 22-65)?
Why is the author surprised? The NYT has already pointed out that 31 prominent economists all agreed (for a wonder) that Trump and the GoP's claims that their policies (particularly deregulation and dismantling of consumer protections) would inevitably lead to 3-5 percent real growth going forward were nonsense https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/11/upshot/why-most-economists-are-so-wor...
7
No surprise. And when the market is back at about 18,000, PERHPS it will b correctly valued.
This is the new economic reality in a country where what we mostly produce are instruments of war a automation continues to be the wave of the future.
MOOC, anyone?
This is the new economic reality in a country where what we mostly produce are instruments of war a automation continues to be the wave of the future.
MOOC, anyone?
2
With auto and retail sectors headed down, healthcare cuts and decreased international trade, there will be some people out of work. Here's a crazy idea: raise taxes and spend it on hiring as many people as possible at a true living wage to build new roads, bridges, airports, public schools and mass transit. Negotiate with all health care providers, insurers, and pharma companies to reduce costs and set guidelines for universal healthcare. A healthier, modernized country would be better for everyone.
18
All those laid off BC-BS claims reps can lace up their Timberlands and head out each day for their new jobs pouring concrete.
Dismal Donnie is truly crazy. Everything he does weakens our economy. Pulls out of trade pacts; pulls out of the climate agreement; pushes coal mines; unnerves markets; destroys health care; undermines education. Wow, it takes talent to do all that in such a short time. We- the USA will be on the outside looking in- it does not bode well for the future.
21
The future lies in investment in people -- in education, in making health more affordable and extending things like broadband and other means of connectivity. The GDP is not that interested in these things. It sees buying cars as a good sign. When money is made and investment flourishes it will be because we have decided to make a more inclusive better and car-free world that does not place all its eggs in a military basket, allow an opioid epidemic to flourish under its nose and terrorize innocent people using what appears to be a paramilitary organization called ICE. Such a society would see the 4th of July carnage in Chicago as the national crisis it is and probably insist that people like the NRA's Wayne La Pierre be institutionalized.
11
Trump bump is a reference to the concussion you suffered, and which caused you to vote for Trump in the 1st place.
25
Time for the tax cut.
The Trump Bump is only for the very rich. The rest of us will be getting all those new jobs in the Coal Mines. Right???
17
Thus far under Trump, bank lending to corporations is falling, consumer borrowing is falling, and real estate related borrowing is falling, according to the highly respected economist Lacy Hunt. Does that sound like a good backdrop for healthy GDP growth? No. It sounds like borrowers are exhausted.
4
How does one measure true growth? If it's GDP and Corporate profits, there could be a 2% growth for the rest of 2017 - a far cry from promised (and unrealistic) 4% from Donald trump. But Trump says and promises so much, and delivers so little aside from enriching his own pockets.
What I am seeing is a slowdown in basic minerals production, and with the decrease in automobile production, coupled with NO infrastructure plan uttered by Trump's Administration, to say 2% GDP growth for the second half is an optimistic picture, very optimistic. Employment levels are high, and Trump's mean-spirited attitude towards immigrants means many service sector jobs are going unfilled, or labor used in housing construction and agriculture is getting harder to come by (which increases the cost to consumers). High end manufacturing - aerospace, for example - is facing strong price pressures and raw material costs are basically flat. This means big ticket capital goods can't kick in a pull up a sagging services sector.
Real things which drive the economy - ability for citizens to increase their personal wealth and pare down debt to increase their disposable income - are not happening. Stagnant wages due to automation and internet commerce, coupled with potentially rising health care costs can further damper the expectations. In short, a correction is coming. The question is what will be the gradient of the glide path?
What I am seeing is a slowdown in basic minerals production, and with the decrease in automobile production, coupled with NO infrastructure plan uttered by Trump's Administration, to say 2% GDP growth for the second half is an optimistic picture, very optimistic. Employment levels are high, and Trump's mean-spirited attitude towards immigrants means many service sector jobs are going unfilled, or labor used in housing construction and agriculture is getting harder to come by (which increases the cost to consumers). High end manufacturing - aerospace, for example - is facing strong price pressures and raw material costs are basically flat. This means big ticket capital goods can't kick in a pull up a sagging services sector.
Real things which drive the economy - ability for citizens to increase their personal wealth and pare down debt to increase their disposable income - are not happening. Stagnant wages due to automation and internet commerce, coupled with potentially rising health care costs can further damper the expectations. In short, a correction is coming. The question is what will be the gradient of the glide path?
24
So...we've been putting up with all this for NOTHING?!!!!
24
Yeah, it's called bait and switch, a con. Too bad all of us must suffer, and not just the 30 percent or less who support it...him.
2
Did anyone expect that the mere presence of Trump in the White House was going to either stoke or crash the real economy in less than two quarters? Stock markets, sure, a headline in the mass media can send investors into all kinds of extremes because they are trying to predict the future with incomplete information -- meaning with their imaginations -- but the real economy reflects what businesses, consumers, and the operations of entire countries are actually doing and those things take time to change.
4
Its really what you believe drives the economy. If you believe in trickle down (which most logical economists do not) you would believe that industry and the wealthy will spend given the right circumstances i.e. tax reform, regulatory reform etc. If however you believes it really about aggregate demand well takes income growth to those who spend a high % of their income, like the middle.
2
If demand is unfulfilled it can be that supply has not caught up but macro economics follows microeconomics for the most part. Businesses increase production when they know that they are going to sell what they make. Hence, manufacturing facilities expand production lines after they have reached 80% capacity. If the economy undergoes a tremendous loss of capital and debt has maxed out most of the credit, demand will not support rapid growth. In any case, most increases in productive capacity take time to build. When you are talking about building new facilities, the lead time to completion is typically two years. Minor variations in economic growth can occur over a short run but big ones take a lot longer.
The "Trump bump" clearly showed that the President's agenda was a welcome change from the business community's perspective, but Trump's agenda has been slowed by obstructionist Democrats and by Republicans in Congress--some of whom have legitimate reasons for not passing his agenda and some of whom are neo-cons hoping for him to fail. The NY Times bias against the President is shameful. It shows the press is part of the corruption which envelopes our federal government.
2
You can't be obstructed when your party is in the majority in all three branches of the government.
10
The Democrats are using the federal courts and state attorney generals in an unprecedented campaign to obstruct the functions of the administrative branch.
Not to mention the shadow government and public shaming and harassment that has been causing delays in the ability of the Trump administration to fill vital positions.
Not to mention the shadow government and public shaming and harassment that has been causing delays in the ability of the Trump administration to fill vital positions.
Rich (hee-hee, I see what you did there...)
Expecting the Trump bump clearly shows that the Right remains delusional and blinded by self-interest.
Democrats have nothing to do with it. They have made themselves legislatively irrelevant. You do recall how voting in the Congress works, yes?
Trump and his bump are failing for two reasons: 1) Trump and 2) The total disconnect between Trump and almost all Republicans, and reality.
So, for example, while you all enjoyed Trump tearing those Euros a new one, the Euros went shopping. And they already found China. As did Africa. And South America.
Trump can make America great all over the place, but if he continues disgusting our markets with his mouth and his behavior it will matter not at all.
So far, he has done nothing to make America anything but sick to its stomach. And that's while he owns the House, the Senate and the Courts.
Expecting the Trump bump clearly shows that the Right remains delusional and blinded by self-interest.
Democrats have nothing to do with it. They have made themselves legislatively irrelevant. You do recall how voting in the Congress works, yes?
Trump and his bump are failing for two reasons: 1) Trump and 2) The total disconnect between Trump and almost all Republicans, and reality.
So, for example, while you all enjoyed Trump tearing those Euros a new one, the Euros went shopping. And they already found China. As did Africa. And South America.
Trump can make America great all over the place, but if he continues disgusting our markets with his mouth and his behavior it will matter not at all.
So far, he has done nothing to make America anything but sick to its stomach. And that's while he owns the House, the Senate and the Courts.
He has enacted one meaningful policy so I am not sure why this is a surprise.
1
Why would it change?
The worthless RINOs in Congress haven't passed his initiatives.
Trump will be re-elected handily, but the RINOs won't be.
The worthless RINOs in Congress haven't passed his initiatives.
Trump will be re-elected handily, but the RINOs won't be.
Now that is a new one, Republicans in congress not supporting a Republican president on his every wish. Maybe some of them have actual experience in government and know what is good for our country. They also know the odds are that Trump will not be re-elected so why should they get on his band wagon. I would like to know where you got the idea that Trump would be re-elected handily. So far he has been a disaster with a poll rating of about 35. Am I missing something?
7
Exactly what has he proposed? He seems to be outsourcing "His Agenda" to the house. Its all too anyone who looks that clear trickle down will not grow the economy, trade wars hurt everyone, no sight of infrastructure. It seems he has done nothing legislatively to create the promise of enhanced growth.
3
"That Rusher thing,..."
That's how he will be re-elected.
That's how he will be re-elected.
1
Trump stands in opposition to almost all of the things the government can do to support genuine economic growth. We are simply gliding on the momentum leftover from the previous administration.
Business invests in economic growth when:
* risk is low and predictable;
* useful information is reliable and freely available;
* the cost of capital is low;
* consumer demand is increasing;
* useful science and technology are subsidized;
* favorable foreign trade opportunities are expanding;
* the knowledge and skill of the labor pool is increasing; and
* the supply of cheap, unskilled labor is expanding.
Trump prides himself on being unpredictable and creating chaos and rancor. He is deliberately obscuring and destroying information services that businesses and local governments use to plan investment. He is dismantling favorable foreign trade agreements while demonstrating an incapacity to create new ones. He is chasing out and scaring away millions of foreign workers, professional and blue collar alike. He is trying to shift the last bit of wealth and savings amongst those who are not rich to those who are, leaving much less disposable income to buy goods and services. All of which increase business risk, thus increasing the cost of capital.
The only levers of growth Trump is pulling are tax cuts (which provide short-term stimuli and long-term debt and higher costs of capital) and stripping regulations to let business profit at the expense of the health, safety and security.
Business invests in economic growth when:
* risk is low and predictable;
* useful information is reliable and freely available;
* the cost of capital is low;
* consumer demand is increasing;
* useful science and technology are subsidized;
* favorable foreign trade opportunities are expanding;
* the knowledge and skill of the labor pool is increasing; and
* the supply of cheap, unskilled labor is expanding.
Trump prides himself on being unpredictable and creating chaos and rancor. He is deliberately obscuring and destroying information services that businesses and local governments use to plan investment. He is dismantling favorable foreign trade agreements while demonstrating an incapacity to create new ones. He is chasing out and scaring away millions of foreign workers, professional and blue collar alike. He is trying to shift the last bit of wealth and savings amongst those who are not rich to those who are, leaving much less disposable income to buy goods and services. All of which increase business risk, thus increasing the cost of capital.
The only levers of growth Trump is pulling are tax cuts (which provide short-term stimuli and long-term debt and higher costs of capital) and stripping regulations to let business profit at the expense of the health, safety and security.
14
We now have slower population growth so of course GDP growth has slowed. I hope we baby boomers and our parents were an anomaly in our accumulation of excessive clutter to fill our homes.
4
Very well put! We all have the cheap-Chinese (made) commodities to last us a life time.
1
I venture to suggest that one thing the trump administration is going to demonstrate how unimportant the presidency and federal government is. Trump is against immigrants, muslims, and people with dark skins, but I think that most of those people are industrious and hardworking and will do well; on the other hand those who were left behind in the rust belt will not do well despite all of trump's boasts and brags. We had eight years of more or less gridlock during President Obama's term and the economy performed reasonably well. The best thing trump could do would be to leave it alone; get out of the way let everyone get on with life and business.
3
I wonder how Trump and his Republican congress think the vast majority of Americans can support our economy when wages are stagnate. They've passed legislation that allows companies to move your weekend to which ever day suits them in order to avoid time and a half and double time on weekends, and now they are moving to take away healthcare. So while this republican president, and his republican congress continue to legislate for the Koch Network, or the Mercers, and other billionaires, in order that they continue to fund their campaigns the economy will continue to weaken. The numbers of people who have money to spend in this economy will continue to dwindle.
7
I am continually mystified by the allegation that Trump's election would somehow magically produce an instant economic uptick. Who suggested such a thing, and why would s/he be taken seriously? The man is a moral degenerate with 6 bankruptcies - and the tide of concomitant miseries among the parties he stiffed - to his "credit." If there is any stability at all in our current economic situation, it's thanks only to the steady, intelligent guidance of Barack Obama. Who believes that a ship the size of the American economy somehow magically turns within a matter of a few month? An absurd assumption on its face. And whatever glee the corporate ilk is currently experiencing at the prospect of a regulation-free business environment, that's a facile and uninformed basis on which to reap some glee; our regulatory climate is not that easily altered. We seem to be living in a reality now where people imagine that big things happen within minutes or in 140 characters. Which, of course, they manifestly do not. When did we become such an utterly fatuous lot?
40
Who suggested such a thing? Breitbart and "his" minions.
5
I never believed the four percent prediction. I am worried about a deep recession since Trump represents the rich and has the same kind of contempt for the electorate that Christie showed in his on the beach incident. The division between ruler and ruled has never been more stark in the history of this republic,
26
Having whackadoodles in charge is never conducive to growth. Business expansion, and for that matter personal spending on big ticket items, are heavily influenced by a sense of thinking one knows in which direction the world is going. Today, there is general sense that Trump and his people don't know what they are doing or where they are going, or even where they want to go. If one is thinking about committing to a course of action or an expenditure of capital, this is the last thing you want.
Rallies are a nice escape from reality, but they don't help growth. The people in downtrodden areas chanting the slogan of the day are not the ones who are deciding whether to open new stores or build new plants. They are not even the ones considering whether to add on to a house. It takes more than a few brewskis and a dose of oxy to jump start an economy, however good it may feel for an hour or two. People making plans have to feel that the ground is not going to shift under them. In short, not only is Trump not good for growth, he's bad for it.
Rallies are a nice escape from reality, but they don't help growth. The people in downtrodden areas chanting the slogan of the day are not the ones who are deciding whether to open new stores or build new plants. They are not even the ones considering whether to add on to a house. It takes more than a few brewskis and a dose of oxy to jump start an economy, however good it may feel for an hour or two. People making plans have to feel that the ground is not going to shift under them. In short, not only is Trump not good for growth, he's bad for it.
19
"Having whackadoodles in charge is never conducive to growth."
No kidding! For 8 years we had wackadoodles who thought they could impose central control of an economy they didn't understand and for 8 long years we had anemic economic growth. Over the next 8 years we will see a substantially increase in economic growth.
No kidding! For 8 years we had wackadoodles who thought they could impose central control of an economy they didn't understand and for 8 long years we had anemic economic growth. Over the next 8 years we will see a substantially increase in economic growth.
Stagnant middle-class wages are the bottleneck. The reason is because the middle class spends their extra money. When wealth accrues to the top, the wealthy save most of it. For them, the printed numbers on their monthly statements grow, but they don't spend at a commensurate rate.
25
"the burst of growth — a “Trump bump” — that many expected to result from an upturn in consumer and business sentiment after President Trump’s election."
Why would anyone expect an uptick in consumer sentiment after Trump's election? Fewer than 63 million people voted for him. They may have been bullish on Trump, but the majority of voters knew that his economic plans made no sense and that he's vastly unqualified for the job of president. The only reason there is any growth at all is because of policies implemented under the Obama administration.
Why would anyone expect an uptick in consumer sentiment after Trump's election? Fewer than 63 million people voted for him. They may have been bullish on Trump, but the majority of voters knew that his economic plans made no sense and that he's vastly unqualified for the job of president. The only reason there is any growth at all is because of policies implemented under the Obama administration.
24
The majority of voters didn't vote, only 63 million, really?
1
Under 63 million votes for Trump. That is what "NA" is stating. From CNN:
Trump: 62,984,825
Clinton: 65,853,516
Not total voters, just the folks who voted for Trump.
Trump: 62,984,825
Clinton: 65,853,516
Not total voters, just the folks who voted for Trump.
3
@Independent. Out of all the ballots cast, the majority were for someone other than Trump. Yes, only 63 million. There are a lot more consumers in the US than that.
3
Trump and associates don't like the economy chugging along at 2%. Just wait, and they'll soon remember the good old days of 2%. After all, Trump has turned us into an isolationist country, got us out of the TPP, renegotiating NAFTA, in a trade war with Canada, our best friend in the world, out of the climate pact, etc., etc. Nothing too promising.
24
The problem with the recovery is the same problem today's editorial addresses. Income inequality is a major cause of slow economic growth. It does not take a sophisticated economic analysis to see that if most people do not have extra disposable income they cannot spend money for other than necessities. If they can't spend money the economy slows over time leading to the stagnation we see. There is no way the upper 1% can spend enough money to offset this deficit no matter how many houses, cars, and designer items they buy.
Another danger for the economy is that their ridiculous surplus which must seem like Monopoly money gets invested in ever crazier schemes, leading to another downturn. Greed does kill the golden goose and we are a prime example. I read once that by law in Germany the salary of the CEO is tied by a ratio to the lowest paid worker. I do not know if this is true, but if it is it may well account for the German economic "miracle". Once commonsense prevented such egregious salaries, but clearly those days are over. Legislation is the only way this can be corrected. But can you see the Republicans reining in their masters?
Another danger for the economy is that their ridiculous surplus which must seem like Monopoly money gets invested in ever crazier schemes, leading to another downturn. Greed does kill the golden goose and we are a prime example. I read once that by law in Germany the salary of the CEO is tied by a ratio to the lowest paid worker. I do not know if this is true, but if it is it may well account for the German economic "miracle". Once commonsense prevented such egregious salaries, but clearly those days are over. Legislation is the only way this can be corrected. But can you see the Republicans reining in their masters?
35
I'm not sure if I agree or disagree with this assessment. Generally my retirement portfolio has seen substantial gains. When I look around here in Florida I see more development, not less and more jobs. The baby boomers have just begun to retire in earnest. Millions are retiring every year and this will continue for the next 15 years with last retiring in about 2032. What that means to the economy is that as the remaining boomers retire housing, medical services, and lots of other goods and service areas of the economy will continue to boom. Boomers, even as they age are having an outsized influence on growth in the economy. Not only do they take care of themselves but they are leaving wealth to children and grandchildren. And before they get carted off to the nursing home or other care facility they are spending their money on travel and yes, their kids and grandkids. The wealth is being passed on.
I live in The Villages, Florida. The developer just announced that another 14,000 homes will be built over the next few years. That means 28,000 more residents to add to our population of 126,000. And there's still ever more land to buy and develop. Retail stores and services are popping up all over. Most important to take notice of is that this is just one retirement community. One hundred and fifty four thousand, represents only .2109 % of the total population of the remaining 73 million boomers. It is not even statistically significant!
Our economy will continue to grow!
I live in The Villages, Florida. The developer just announced that another 14,000 homes will be built over the next few years. That means 28,000 more residents to add to our population of 126,000. And there's still ever more land to buy and develop. Retail stores and services are popping up all over. Most important to take notice of is that this is just one retirement community. One hundred and fifty four thousand, represents only .2109 % of the total population of the remaining 73 million boomers. It is not even statistically significant!
Our economy will continue to grow!
1
Perhaps, but with no thanks to Trump.
3
"There is ever more land to buy and develop" in Florida? Not swampland, is it? Not liable to become submerged if the ocean rises, I hope? Well, here's to optimism.
4
What about the areas that these retiring boomers are leaving?
This is how we end up with Trump. Failing to look or think beyond our backyards.
This is how we end up with Trump. Failing to look or think beyond our backyards.
1
Trump is simply ignorant and a pathological liar. Furthermore, he really isn't the business mogul he would have us believe. "The Art of the Deal" for Trump is: if the deal doesn't work out in my favor, I will file corporate bankruptcy. He has done this 6 times in his career; for me, this habit proves he is not the businessman giant he has tried to convince America that he is.
30
Don't forget that when he went public...not only did he lose money every year for ten years while the casino business was booming (by way over spending on gaudy fixtures and then over building at the end of the boom); he leads the casino business for "most bankruptcies filed"; lost 90% of his investors money ($1.2B) stiffed his suppliers and contractors (the "Little People" he claims to care about); but in the end rewarded himself with a $44MM paycheck for the privilege of people learning what a successful businessman he is.
But he does deserve credit where credit is due - he got people to pay for tap water in a plastic bottle with his name on it.
But he does deserve credit where credit is due - he got people to pay for tap water in a plastic bottle with his name on it.
6
Oh, I hadn't forgot but thanks for the supporting details! Heck of a deal maker isn't he? NOT!
1
Reagan proved trickle-down economics doesn't work. But clearly Trump, Bannon et al weren't paying attention. Maybe they were too busy learning to emulate Dick the Bruiser, Bobby Heenan and their fake wrestling brethren...
17
Actually trickle-down economics (supply side) did work during the Regan administration, but it was at a time with high inflation and low corporate profit margins. It won't work today because inflation is low and corporate sector profit margins are at their highest level in 65 years. What we need now is demand side support. But the bottom line is that supply side can work but is not is not always right and especially so in the present environment. The reason people have a brain is to use it to think instead of relying on political dogma.
1
Exactly when did it work under Reagan? I would really like to see some facts to back up that claim.
1
Does the 5.5 percent savings include savings for retirement (TSA, IRA, ROTH)?
3
Wake up! His sole goal is to trash the economy and create a real estate buying opportunity for Trump Co. Congress is going along because they have not been able to make as many backroom deals for several generations. He is taking America to a level of corruption we have never seen.
20
I have no way of knowing if what you suggest is Trump's single-minded intent, but it surely could be one of the results.
7
As I recall, in the play Godot never shows up!
8
It is now a Zombie Economy ... the living dead ... the walking dead ...
7
The bump is a fraud, just like the man who would be king.
19
The only reason for a "Trump bump" is consumer and corporate confidence, there are no fundamentals behind Trump's whims. The time for the transient confidence bump is over. It's time for definitive progress or policies that will lead to progress.
Trump slings a populist line, but it's snake oil. Trump doesn't know what a policy is. Measurable effects of Trump's magic remedies are nowhere to be seen. There are just as many jobs fleeing the country as there were before, wages remain stagnant. Jobs growth is in low paying jobs; has to be since there is no wage growth. Any GDP increases and the stock market increases go overwhelmingly to the rich. Healthcare bill changes and proposed tax law changes are ones that will benefit the rich. Moreover the supply side theory already thoroughly debunked is again showing it's fraudulence in the Kansas economy where Gov. Brownback's policies have virtually demolished the state economy.
For a lasting improvement in the economy the Trump administration must really actually do something that improves the economy, not just make promises.
Trump slings a populist line, but it's snake oil. Trump doesn't know what a policy is. Measurable effects of Trump's magic remedies are nowhere to be seen. There are just as many jobs fleeing the country as there were before, wages remain stagnant. Jobs growth is in low paying jobs; has to be since there is no wage growth. Any GDP increases and the stock market increases go overwhelmingly to the rich. Healthcare bill changes and proposed tax law changes are ones that will benefit the rich. Moreover the supply side theory already thoroughly debunked is again showing it's fraudulence in the Kansas economy where Gov. Brownback's policies have virtually demolished the state economy.
For a lasting improvement in the economy the Trump administration must really actually do something that improves the economy, not just make promises.
10
We need infrastructure investment, it's halfway through the summer, the best weather for heavy construction, and I'm not seeing much of it.
Do we need an "Ashtabula bridge disaster where so many people died" as poet Julia Moore crooned in 1876 to get attention to this problem?
https://www.poetrynook.com/poem/ashtabula-disaster
At this rate, the crisis will be postponed another year. Not good.
Do we need an "Ashtabula bridge disaster where so many people died" as poet Julia Moore crooned in 1876 to get attention to this problem?
https://www.poetrynook.com/poem/ashtabula-disaster
At this rate, the crisis will be postponed another year. Not good.
2
Yes...the Republican's finally rebelled in KS and raised taxes because they know the light at the end of the tunnel is a train coming. And in the end the Republican's will throw Emperor Trump under the bus as soon as their "useful idiot" has served his purpose and their control is threatened.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Useful_idiot
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Useful_idiot
Since there have been no job growth initiatives launched by this administration (unless you count repealing regulations on polluters who don't need to hire more workers), we will have to assume that he intends to create jobs through military spending and a run up to an as yet undeclared war on ISIS.
His attempts to limit the immigrant labor force is not job creation. At best, it is merely worker substitution, jobs that "Americans" can now do for very low wages that were previously off-the-books and netting out higher rates of spending. Hardly building the economy there. Not sure what else he has in mind. Since, as he often says, he doesn't like to tell what he is thinking, we will have to wait to find out what initiatives are coming.
At least he was right about one thing: we are now seeing job creation like we've never seen before!!! (you sure can't see something that isn't happening like it has before).
His attempts to limit the immigrant labor force is not job creation. At best, it is merely worker substitution, jobs that "Americans" can now do for very low wages that were previously off-the-books and netting out higher rates of spending. Hardly building the economy there. Not sure what else he has in mind. Since, as he often says, he doesn't like to tell what he is thinking, we will have to wait to find out what initiatives are coming.
At least he was right about one thing: we are now seeing job creation like we've never seen before!!! (you sure can't see something that isn't happening like it has before).
13
The picture worsens when one considers that "worker substitution" has not worked in industries where immigrants play a massive role: food production and harvesting. It has been demonstrated again and again that Americans will not or cannot substitute for immigrants in agriculture. Farrmers in Alabama, California, North Carolina, and elsewhere, some of whom voted for Trump, are justifiably worried that loss of their migrant work force will cripple their ability to get food to market.
6
Ben Herzon might know something about economics, but his optimism is not reflected in the last sentence of this article. If he knew anything about theatre he'd know that Godot never arrives. That's the whole point. I suspect we will see the same with the "recovery". Three years from now we'll still be "Waiting For Godot" and we'll still be waiting for the 3% annual growth rate. "Lucky" will be gone, and maybe "Pozzo" will be gone with him.
5
It's going to get worse. While the rest of the world embraces alternative energy, Trump is back in the last century crowing about Coal. Fortunately, the rest of the country isn't as backward, but it would help to have the Federal Government's help. Additionally, since President Trump has dissed' Europe, they are looking to China for the leadership vacuum that the US "Leadership" has created.
18
in history a recession was helped by state govs and feds hiring, but with these republicans its the opposite slash and cut, but that does not equal revenue and destroys public education. the fed and the states need to put people back to work on badly needed infrastructure across the country. there is no such thing as trickle down economy.
10
Also weighing on consumer spending is the large overhang of college loan debt and the likely increase in medical costs and loss of benefits as Trumpcare, with its transfer of wealth from the middle class to the already wealthy, becomes increasing likely. Since most Americans did not vote for Trump, they are rightfully skeptical about his ability to lead the country and increase prosperity. And many of those who did vote for him now realize that they fell for his schtick and that he will fail to deliver on his MAGA promise. So cautious optimism is giving way to nervous worry for much of middle America and its small and medium size businesses that drive our economic growth rate.
17
As we will continually see from President Trump and the media that supports him "It is the Democrats fault!"
As my mechanic said "If only the Democrats would get out of the way." That is why the presidents followers will not abandon him. They do not realize that the Republicans control everything in the federal government and most of the state governments.
As my mechanic said "If only the Democrats would get out of the way." That is why the presidents followers will not abandon him. They do not realize that the Republicans control everything in the federal government and most of the state governments.
19
I told my garage I'd pay their bill after Trump paid his. His supporters don't have a clue that it's stiff's like this bloated fascist that bankrupts them until they experience it themselves. If we Democrats treated Trump supporters like he does they'll all be bankrupt and out of business.
6
These are just forecasts. These same economists missed the Great Recession, too. Let's wait and see what happens.
I'm no Trump fan, but if the economy did exceed these forecasts it would be a good thing for all of us.
I'm no Trump fan, but if the economy did exceed these forecasts it would be a good thing for all of us.
3
More fake news! The US economy is growing faster than any other economy in the history of mankind and beyond!
In his Presidency for Dummies, Trump learned how to grow the economy. You strangle it, you change treaties and agreements, threaten tariffs and isolationism, remain unpredictable, and let the gamblers on Wall Street play with all that uncertainty.
Makes for great conditions for a turnaround in the economy. A turnaround to another republican recession.
Let's fervently hope that the Trump recession won't be the deepest, the biggest, the most catastrophic, most disastrous, hugest recession into depression in the history of the universe.
In his Presidency for Dummies, Trump learned how to grow the economy. You strangle it, you change treaties and agreements, threaten tariffs and isolationism, remain unpredictable, and let the gamblers on Wall Street play with all that uncertainty.
Makes for great conditions for a turnaround in the economy. A turnaround to another republican recession.
Let's fervently hope that the Trump recession won't be the deepest, the biggest, the most catastrophic, most disastrous, hugest recession into depression in the history of the universe.
26
CEO's and private business owners as well as investors all absolutely hate uncertainty.
Consumers pull back when the future looks uncertain.
Donald Trump is uncertainty and chaos on steroids.
Consumers pull back when the future looks uncertain.
Donald Trump is uncertainty and chaos on steroids.
19
Hmmm ... we have changed administrations. We are dismantling regulations all over the place in hopes of making it easier for businesses to make money. Yet our economy is still barely moving. In fact, we are focussing so much on helping businesses, we seem to have forgotten the other side of the equation. What good is it to pump up the supply side at the expense of demand, the ability for people to afford to buy anything? If Republicans succeed in cutting access to health care for many and making it more expensive for those who still have it, I believe that may be the straw that broke the camel's back for the economy. That, plus another (albeit smaller) real estate bubble, tearing down Dodd-Frank, some sort of loan malfeasance (mortgages, student loans, health care ... take your pick). We may do the Great Recession one better (or worse).
21
We can be certain that Trump's portfolio is doing well, never mind the rest of the nation. In his view, that's all that matters. Truly, 'the art of the deal.'
15
Trump will insist this all fake news as Alex Jones has informed that is a plot by democrats to undermine his fantastic presidency. The real rate of growth is 6% and unemployment is 2% thanks to brilliant financial skills of the world's greatest deal maker. From now on all truth and facts will come from Trump's tweets or Fox and friends all other media is fake news by executive order of his excellency King Don the con.
17
The tweet from Donald posted in the article, is such a farce! Donald INHERITED this economy , which has been growing, slowly but surely. And now...it's shrinking. The man has no economic plan...only "big talk." Talk is cheap!
What has Donald done in eight months to improve our economy? Zilch.
He is a disaster.....and just like with GWB it will take a Democrat to clean up the mess!!
What has Donald done in eight months to improve our economy? Zilch.
He is a disaster.....and just like with GWB it will take a Democrat to clean up the mess!!
20
Just another nail in the zombie economics of supply side voodoo. How can the economy steam ahead when almost 75% of the population have little to no discretionary income ? They have maxed out their credit cards trying to keep their heads and lifestyles above water, but with banks gouging interest rates have no way to pay off those cards. In addition, wages are stagnant and have been for years (where's the trickle down ?) so there is no buildup of demand that would signal a buying spree ahead. Inventories will continue to stay flat and add in the decimation of the retail sector which will cause millions to lose their jobs in the foreseeable future . The economy will have to continue to adjust, but in the intermediate term the outlook is for slow, steady growth of under 2% per annum
21
The huge impact of loosening of regressive regulations will take a while to be reflected in GDP numbers. Interesting to note the "experts" cited here had no mention of that. Again dogmatic "progressives" who refuse to look at the entire picture.
You are not one who should be accusing people of blindly following dogma sjaco, since you have admitted in your post that your view is based on superlatives like "huge impact" and a hope that things will work out as you envision in the future.
5
There may be some growth in the lining of coal executive's pocketbook but getting rid of "regressive regulations" like preventing coal waste from being dumped into our water supply is not going to cause major growth in the economy. Trump's removing of regulations are simply handouts to his corporate comrades.
10
Just before the housing meltdown, everywhere I went there were loads of "for sale" signs in yards. People trying to cash in on the housing boom, selling houses that were, practically speaking, worth only the value of the land they stood on, for hundreds and hundreds of thousands. So-called investors were buying and flipping, buying and flipping. Builders were working overtime, churning out cheaply made, incredibly expensive houses. I happened to be house hunting at the time, and did not buy, because nothing on the market was valued in any realistic way. I saw dozens and dozens of overpriced homes, and wondered who on earth could be earning the kinds of salaries needed to buy these places?
Well, it turned out that almost nobody was really making enough money to buy these houses, and the bottom fell out of the market.
Nearly a dozen years later, what am I seeing again? Every tenth house has a "for sale" sign in the yard. Rampant construction all over the place. Small homes being torn down and replaced with McMansions. Yet, wages are just as stagnant as they ever were, if not more so.
Again: how many people actually earn the kinds of incomes required to purchase these homes? I am willing to bet that there are not enough. There is another housing bust on the horizon.
Well, it turned out that almost nobody was really making enough money to buy these houses, and the bottom fell out of the market.
Nearly a dozen years later, what am I seeing again? Every tenth house has a "for sale" sign in the yard. Rampant construction all over the place. Small homes being torn down and replaced with McMansions. Yet, wages are just as stagnant as they ever were, if not more so.
Again: how many people actually earn the kinds of incomes required to purchase these homes? I am willing to bet that there are not enough. There is another housing bust on the horizon.
20
“the real tragedy is that the price tag for any future infrastructure spending will be a lot higher.”
Infrastructure was never a Trump priority other than the idea of having the private sector put tolls on freeways and bridges. And infrastructure is just one of many places government action is needed: others are healthcare, environmental protection, affordable housing, education, etc presently administered by completely inappropriate appointees.
Will the Dems face the prospect of greater government involvement? Will they forgo corporate sponsorship to support the middle class? Who knows?
Infrastructure was never a Trump priority other than the idea of having the private sector put tolls on freeways and bridges. And infrastructure is just one of many places government action is needed: others are healthcare, environmental protection, affordable housing, education, etc presently administered by completely inappropriate appointees.
Will the Dems face the prospect of greater government involvement? Will they forgo corporate sponsorship to support the middle class? Who knows?
11
What will be worth watching is the way increasing isolation and nationalism will play into an economy that wants to emphasize protectionism and expects regressive social policy to resolve fundamental problems in the imbalance of taxes versus expenditures, with no signs of any real investment in critical infrastructure. It is early in the game but the attempt to invigorate areas in which the nation is not competitive is a betting on failures not on strengths.
3
Hold the presses! Trump said he was going to be "The Greatest Jobs Producing President that God ever created"! and he talked about 4-5% GDP every year he is in office..(I think he also imagine crying hysterical mobs chanting MAGA MAGA and throwing roses at his 200th victory parade).
If he would have paid attention at Wharton, (Econ 101) he'd know that he inherited a well functioning economy from Obama operating at just about full capacity, one of the longest (soon, if not the longest) expansion on record; and an economy constrained by demographics...namely 10,000 baby boomers retiring and leaving the workforce every DAY. Despite his stunningly ignorant lies and comments about economic "disasters"..."It's his economy to ruin".
If he would have paid attention at Wharton, (Econ 101) he'd know that he inherited a well functioning economy from Obama operating at just about full capacity, one of the longest (soon, if not the longest) expansion on record; and an economy constrained by demographics...namely 10,000 baby boomers retiring and leaving the workforce every DAY. Despite his stunningly ignorant lies and comments about economic "disasters"..."It's his economy to ruin".
24
Trump will call it fake news. He is the buffoon who just keeps talking louder to prove his false claims.
It just doesn't seem like his supporters are ever going to wake up to fact that he is a disaster for our country. If only they could be the ones who have to take the burden. Please, Trump supporters, enlist in the military for our upcoming, unwinnable war with North Korea.
It just doesn't seem like his supporters are ever going to wake up to fact that he is a disaster for our country. If only they could be the ones who have to take the burden. Please, Trump supporters, enlist in the military for our upcoming, unwinnable war with North Korea.
13
"an aging population in the United States and a work force that is growing much more slowly than in past decades."
With Republicans terrifying potential immigrants, and actually throwing out hard- working tax paying immigrants who lift the economies of their communities, they accelerate the aging of our population.
With Republicans terrifying potential immigrants, and actually throwing out hard- working tax paying immigrants who lift the economies of their communities, they accelerate the aging of our population.
30
It would be nice if y'all at least made an attempt at accuracy. Republicans are not opposed to LEGAL immigration, but we are opposed to open borders and ILLEGAL immigration.
3
What Republicans don't seem opposed to enough is TREATING legal immigrants as if they ARE illegal - making negative assumptions about people due to their ethnic and/or religious background and harassing them, consequently making the U.S. a lot less desirable a destination to many.
8
Not totally correct. Legal immigrants with papers are not wanted from "certain" countries.
2
Microsoft announcing thousands of layoffs.
The auto industry slumping and cutting back on workers.
Verizon announcing layoffs after its merger with Yahoo
And nary a Trump tweet or visit to a job site in site.
The auto industry slumping and cutting back on workers.
Verizon announcing layoffs after its merger with Yahoo
And nary a Trump tweet or visit to a job site in site.
21
This is what happens middle America/working class, when you buy into the promises made by Republicans: Instead of "bringing back those good paying jobs" that you were promised in order to get your vote -- with additional distractions over irrelevancies in your lives, like "Hillary's e-mail server" -- you get things like a trillion dollars gutted from your healthcare and Medicaid in order to finance a capital gains tax cut for the 1%, including Trump and his family.
34
Interesting that this piece of propaganda is followed by a news report of a Texas boom due to oil exports that were once illegal. I suspect the "experts" cited here are nothing more than dogmatic "progressives" and as such are blind to other factors that indicate an economy on the rise.
3
That's funny that there would be an oil "boom" sjaco, considering that gas prices are at their lowest in about the past 8 years... But, apart from that, do you understand that they are talking about national trends and averages? By definition, an average is a composite of better and worse numbers.
8
Texas Oil exports are indicative of a shrinking, not an expanding economy. If the economy were expanding US users would buy the oil.
5
Beware economic Rosemary's baby bump.
4
Infrastructure will be more expensive - and more necessary - the longer we wait to upgrade. How foolish are these politicians?!
16
Very. For the GOP, everything that isn't a tax cut for the rich is an expense, rather than an investment. We've had eight years and 60+ Congressional votes to repeal Obamacare, but no ideas for investment and growth. Sad!
3
"Really great numbers on jobs & the economy! Things are starting to kick in now..."
Allow me to re-phrase Trump's fake-tweet (without the 140-character limit): "The economy is about the same now as it has been for the past few years during the Obama administration, but forget that I trashed it then. I'm redefining 'great' now."
Who knew ecomomics would be so complicated?
Allow me to re-phrase Trump's fake-tweet (without the 140-character limit): "The economy is about the same now as it has been for the past few years during the Obama administration, but forget that I trashed it then. I'm redefining 'great' now."
Who knew ecomomics would be so complicated?
19
Well, if all else fails perhaps Trump can teach us how to get a line of credit from Russian oligarchs that we can then invest. If the investments don't work out, we can let taxpayers bail us out. I've heard that's “smart” somewhere.
24
"..how faster economic growth seems perpetually out of reach."
Perpetual large economic growth is a stupid endgame. At some point there is nothing left to "reach" for.
Don't know why humble economic growth in the wealthiest country ever known on earth isn't a smart idea. With a large comfortable but not ostentatious middle class. Promoting thriftiness, ingenuity, and smart decisions, instead of money lending, debt, mass consumerism and constant home building and a false sense things are on the up and up (like the Reagan years and the late 90's- ending in economic ruin. Those are the examples given of "the good old days"?)
Wake up.
Perpetual large economic growth is a stupid endgame. At some point there is nothing left to "reach" for.
Don't know why humble economic growth in the wealthiest country ever known on earth isn't a smart idea. With a large comfortable but not ostentatious middle class. Promoting thriftiness, ingenuity, and smart decisions, instead of money lending, debt, mass consumerism and constant home building and a false sense things are on the up and up (like the Reagan years and the late 90's- ending in economic ruin. Those are the examples given of "the good old days"?)
Wake up.
14
Mmac, they had to promise 3-4% growth, which is impossible, to justify the enormous tax cuts they are planning in the tax bill, that's in addition to the huge tax cuts from the health care bill, for the wealthiest Americans.
3
I don't trust Trump on the economy. He lies.
8
What!! no Trump Bump"? A fake pregnancy??
The White House Whine Line is now open for business. It may be the ONLY business Trump creates, but business nevertheless.
The White House Whine Line is now open for business. It may be the ONLY business Trump creates, but business nevertheless.
5
Trump Bump? More like Free Fall.
5
Even a 5.5 percent savings rate seems low. I would have expected something closer to 10 percent or even higher. To me, this suggests the recovery is actually more anemic than the numbers show. People aren't saving as much as they would like because they don't have enough disposable income to save. To paraphrase Top Gun: The Great Recession really screwed us up. I don't think we can make it back.
I suspect things will get worse before they get better. An entire generation is now permanently risk averse after a terrible economic start. Millennials are lucky to hit normal lifetime benchmarks by 35. Meanwhile, boomers are shifting to a fixed income. Government did basically nothing to course correct. Instead of providing labor with skills and mobility, we got countless Obamacare repeal votes.
Where do these people expect the growth to come from? Tax cuts aren't cutting it. A few hundred dollars each year isn't enough for most people to go buy a new car. That's more like a tank of gas and dinner out if you're lucky. Cheaper gas prices won't help either. The money saved goes to groceries, not a down payment on a Ford. The bottom line on a corporate balance sheet doesn't increase wages either.
Let's just hope we don't crash and burn again. With Trump in charge, my savings rate actually went up. I'm preparing for the next disaster.
I suspect things will get worse before they get better. An entire generation is now permanently risk averse after a terrible economic start. Millennials are lucky to hit normal lifetime benchmarks by 35. Meanwhile, boomers are shifting to a fixed income. Government did basically nothing to course correct. Instead of providing labor with skills and mobility, we got countless Obamacare repeal votes.
Where do these people expect the growth to come from? Tax cuts aren't cutting it. A few hundred dollars each year isn't enough for most people to go buy a new car. That's more like a tank of gas and dinner out if you're lucky. Cheaper gas prices won't help either. The money saved goes to groceries, not a down payment on a Ford. The bottom line on a corporate balance sheet doesn't increase wages either.
Let's just hope we don't crash and burn again. With Trump in charge, my savings rate actually went up. I'm preparing for the next disaster.
112
Andy, the trouble is that by taking your money out of circulation, you are not preparing for the next disaster, You are facilitating it.
PS The growth should come from federal deficits spending. After all, the feds (pun intended) can create as much money as we need and with all the slack in the economy, excess inflation is a distant worry.
The velocity of money is the frequency it changes hands in domestic commerce. You can think of it as measuring how useful that money is. In recent years, the velocity of money has plunged. You are contributing to this plunge.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
PS The growth should come from federal deficits spending. After all, the feds (pun intended) can create as much money as we need and with all the slack in the economy, excess inflation is a distant worry.
The velocity of money is the frequency it changes hands in domestic commerce. You can think of it as measuring how useful that money is. In recent years, the velocity of money has plunged. You are contributing to this plunge.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
I'm with you currently living like I did as a college kid I don't spend any money I don't have too. Debt free and saving somewhere around 70 percent of my monthly income. Once you live like this for awhile it really is not that difficult. Unlike the last time the Republicans were in control of everything and blew up the world economy this time I'm ready.
Your savings rate didn't go up due to Trump. The Federal Reserve boosted rates, none of which Trump influenced.
1
The things that would boost the economy seem to be the same things that are anathema to the Republican Party. Immigrants, public spending and raising the minimum wage. So why would the economy have robust growth if they won't do what we know works?
11
The only real economic plan the GOP has is more tax cuts for the wealthy and more repeals of regulation. Neither of which address the failings of the economy. We need to take a hard look at some of these mega companies and likely move to break them up. 21st century monopoly isn't going to look like Standard Oil, it's going to look more like facebook or amazon. Corporate consolidation reduce overall job creation ( merged companies can eliminate "duplication"). Because there's no competition there's no wage growth for workers, nor incentive to innovate. Because there's a single big company they'll create fewer jobs. Until that structural problem is addressed the average American will continue to struggle.
Health care costs, education costs and the relentless drive towards automation mean that there's even more pressure on jobs. But no one in Washington is really addressing this or even acknowledging it's a problem.
Health care costs, education costs and the relentless drive towards automation mean that there's even more pressure on jobs. But no one in Washington is really addressing this or even acknowledging it's a problem.
12
Democrat obstruction is working but will only be temporary. The American people are smart and won't support this must longer. If democrats don't change course and help they will continue to lose sets in 18 and 20. Either way republicans and the America economy will get stronger and stronger.
Really- How? The US Birthrate is lower than it has been in generations, our infrastructure is crumbling, the American people are waiting to be crushed by TrumpCare, and the rich will get a tax break on our backs. Kids are saddled with massive debt in an attempt to learn skills necessary to survive in the next century (don't see that happening with all of the Chinese college graduates). The GOP will eat its own young in order to pacify that corporate interests that own them.
13
Why are Republicans favored when they do so little for the middle class?
1
Wait! Donald Trump convinced enough people that he alone had a plan to improve the economy and now you are suggesting it was harder to do than he thought it was? I am shocked, shocked I say!
The people who voted for Trump wanted to send a message to Washington and they have - they put in place a man incapable of coalescing his own party to do the constructive work which takes time. Trump lacks the temperament to do such a thing. He suggested that Boeing and Carrier would help pave the wave towards bringing jobs or keeping jobs in America and the truth has prevailed - companies move their resources to where they find the lowest salary scales. So instead of a car being manufactured in Mexico, it is going to China.
Trump, like PT Barnum, made promises he could not keep, like revitalizing the coal industry, and he was able to fool some of the people, enough to win an election, but the rest of the people see him for what he is, a man without a plan.
The people who voted for Trump wanted to send a message to Washington and they have - they put in place a man incapable of coalescing his own party to do the constructive work which takes time. Trump lacks the temperament to do such a thing. He suggested that Boeing and Carrier would help pave the wave towards bringing jobs or keeping jobs in America and the truth has prevailed - companies move their resources to where they find the lowest salary scales. So instead of a car being manufactured in Mexico, it is going to China.
Trump, like PT Barnum, made promises he could not keep, like revitalizing the coal industry, and he was able to fool some of the people, enough to win an election, but the rest of the people see him for what he is, a man without a plan.
21
Trump lost by 3 million votes but was appointed by the red state ignorant EC. As a result, the next depression is already in progress. Some of us elderly have lived through eras of this sort before and are already having to pass on the necessary skills needed to survive.
2
The stock market seems to be gambling that corporate profits and share prices will increase at a rate well above the growth rate of the overall economy. Now would be a good time to launch an IPO in magical thinking.
8
It is almost funny that some of the factors that hold the American economy back are "an aging population in the United States and a work force that is growing much more slowly than in past decades," as the article put it. These are elements that could be overcome by encouraging immigration, which Trump is trying to impede.
And it is nothing short of tragic that the US has managed to evade the bargain basement interest rates available to repair our infrastructure. We will have to pay more interest and the US economy is weaker because of the delay.
And it is nothing short of tragic that the US has managed to evade the bargain basement interest rates available to repair our infrastructure. We will have to pay more interest and the US economy is weaker because of the delay.
22
Exactly correct. Rather than demonizing immigrants we're going to need them to replace the knowledge workers retiring and at the lower end the people to harvest crops.
2
Pick up a dictionary and see legal and illegal. Ask yourself if we have a shortage of qualified knowledgeable workers, what the hell is our education system doing? Perhaps we should get off the globalist indoctrination system of education and actually teach young people to work.
1
I don't disagree that an aging population and anemic growth in our workforce have real impacts on "the economy", as we typically characterize and measure it.
However, I'm annoyed that we insist on hitching our economic wagon to an ever-growing population (whether through high native fertility rates or high rates of immigration).
Collectively, our impacts on the environment at this population level are already unsustainable: including the loss and fragmentation of species habitats, loss of wilderness areas, degradation of freshwater resources, depletion of aquifers, over-fishing of oceans, spread of invasive species, and spewing of greenhouse gases. Add a hundred million more to the U.S. population, and billions more to the global population, and it won't make things any better.
Although, yes, milking that last bit of petroleum out of a hundred wells drilled next to the Grand Canyon or Arches National Park, and building a bunch of new homes in nearby Flagstaff or Moab to house the workers, and then selling them hundreds of new cars for commuting back and forth to work daily, will temporarily goose our national GDP. Whoo-hoo.
"Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell." [Edward Abbey]
However, I'm annoyed that we insist on hitching our economic wagon to an ever-growing population (whether through high native fertility rates or high rates of immigration).
Collectively, our impacts on the environment at this population level are already unsustainable: including the loss and fragmentation of species habitats, loss of wilderness areas, degradation of freshwater resources, depletion of aquifers, over-fishing of oceans, spread of invasive species, and spewing of greenhouse gases. Add a hundred million more to the U.S. population, and billions more to the global population, and it won't make things any better.
Although, yes, milking that last bit of petroleum out of a hundred wells drilled next to the Grand Canyon or Arches National Park, and building a bunch of new homes in nearby Flagstaff or Moab to house the workers, and then selling them hundreds of new cars for commuting back and forth to work daily, will temporarily goose our national GDP. Whoo-hoo.
"Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell." [Edward Abbey]
2
No one is interested in the skewed polls; plus republicans do not participate in polls.
2
Either the right questions are not asked of these economists, or they purposefully evade the elephant in the room. One rock solid economic formula is that economic growth equals the sum of population growth plus productivity. Our population is aging and we now have an anti-immigration administration, so population will not be growing significantly to increase economic production. Some industries are already reporting that they cannot find workers to fill positions. Also, unless there is some magic out there that's going to boost exponentially the productivity of American workers, this number is going to remain the same. Consequently we are going to see economic growth around two to two and a half percent. Anyone saying anything different has a phony degree from a phony university to sell.
9
We're too busy trying to pay $800 monthly health "insurance" premiums that realistically don't cover us for squat. We're (not me but many I know) too busy scrounging to pay the already gluttonous cell phone companies their $150 monthly fees. We're too busy to add to the 'economy' since we must pay our $150+ monthly cable media bills first. My point? Unless you are one of the 1%, there is no time or money to help 'boost' the economy.
We're too busy working two, three jobs to pay- the above. Wages are stagnant or we have seen no year by year increases in decades. So, we sit, we wait for a piddly one and a half increase- maybe- every few years.
Welcome to the 'new' economy. Why don't all those 'economists' go bug the corporations to 'spend', after all- thats where all the $$ locked up.
We're too busy working two, three jobs to pay- the above. Wages are stagnant or we have seen no year by year increases in decades. So, we sit, we wait for a piddly one and a half increase- maybe- every few years.
Welcome to the 'new' economy. Why don't all those 'economists' go bug the corporations to 'spend', after all- thats where all the $$ locked up.
56
There isn't a need to pay high cable fees. My internet cost is $25 a month, Netflix, Hulu and Sling add $36. My cell phone service has 4 phones have unlimited calling/testing and internet for $125 a month. Health insurance is courtesy of Republicans trying to screw up the ACA and the uncertainty is causing the high rates. Try living within your means.
Since Trump has effectively no economic policy or will to push one through Congress, and since Republicans are mired in an unpopular health bill and soon a fight over funding government. it's hard to see how he'd make a difference at all. And it's going to be hard to push tax cuts for the rich next year, an election year that's going to be tough for Republicans.
12
It's not rocket science folks. Lower taxes on the filthy rich - or as Republicans like to call them "job creators" - have been starving this country for the last 35 years not to mention the Iraq war which even if we pulled out today the costs will be in the trillions because of the vets who've been scarred for life and will need treatment until the cows come home. Good jobs are disappearing not being created and the ones remaining in fast food and the ever burgeoning eldercare industries don't pay enough for those people to buy stuff after their food and housing. Stuff. Thats what makes an economy flourish. When people buy stuff. Now states like Missouri want to lower the minimum wage. Brilliant. These people won't be able to buy stuff. Missouri can become the new Kansas and if we continue on this path America becomes the new Greece. Either we're in this together or we're a country of 340 million individuals. We're screwed if it's the latter.
32
"Still, it is a far cry from the annual gains of 3 percent or more achieved a decade ago, or the 4 percent rate in the late 1990s."
This is a strange benchmark to use for the standards of comparison. What exactly came from the 3% gains during the housing bubble of a decade ago or the 4% gains from the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s? Is this really what we want to strive to recreate?
This is a strange benchmark to use for the standards of comparison. What exactly came from the 3% gains during the housing bubble of a decade ago or the 4% gains from the dotcom bubble of the late 1990s? Is this really what we want to strive to recreate?
12
trump Slump is more likely accurate
Our economy, our status in the world, and our climate are all taking a big hit
Our economy, our status in the world, and our climate are all taking a big hit
17
So the bubble is about to burst as it always does when Republicans are in charge. Republicans always screw up the economy.
24
The only growth I would like to see is this man-baby of a President grow up..but even a 2% growth in his maturity is unlikely..
11
With a $600 billion annual structural deficit the very last thing that would be on a rational person's mind is a tax cut. Tax cuts aren't the solution, tax cuts are the problem. What is needed is a tax increase and a gradual but steady shifting of resources from military spending back to programs that matter to people like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, health care generally, SNAP, LIHEAP, WIC, Housing subsidies, public transit, infrastructure, etc. A real investment in our own infrastructure, not the fake Trump plan, would be worth additional spending.
As we know from experience a tax cut cannot and will not cause significant growth in the GDP, it will only increase the deficit and exponentially add to the national debt. That's a fact. Demographics and productivity are what matter when it comes to GDP and those variables are not suggestive of anything but flat growth in the 2 percent range as far as the eye can see. Inflation is also stable in the 1.5 to 2.5 percent range in the coming years. This is the new normal. What does this mean for equity valuations? It means that stocks are grossly over valued at least for now.
If Shiller and others are right, and I think they are, private retirement investments are likely to yield an anemic 4 - 5 percent in the coming decade. This means a savings rate of 5.5 is wildly inadequate to fund anybody in retirement. It's time Americans grow up and face the new realities instead of hoping for magic.
As we know from experience a tax cut cannot and will not cause significant growth in the GDP, it will only increase the deficit and exponentially add to the national debt. That's a fact. Demographics and productivity are what matter when it comes to GDP and those variables are not suggestive of anything but flat growth in the 2 percent range as far as the eye can see. Inflation is also stable in the 1.5 to 2.5 percent range in the coming years. This is the new normal. What does this mean for equity valuations? It means that stocks are grossly over valued at least for now.
If Shiller and others are right, and I think they are, private retirement investments are likely to yield an anemic 4 - 5 percent in the coming decade. This means a savings rate of 5.5 is wildly inadequate to fund anybody in retirement. It's time Americans grow up and face the new realities instead of hoping for magic.
16
If it's bad news, it's fake news.
5
And if it's good news it belongs to President Obama -"the economy’s basic trajectory remains the same as it did under President Barack Obama."
6
Lord Dampnut is riding President Obama's economic coattail and everybody knows it. The smart money on Wall Street never expected a vigorous Trump boom, just banking deregulation. Believe me.
11
Banking deregulations along with the deregulation of our government agencies, the anti-belief of climate change, the pulling out of the Paris accords, and most of all the lack of trust in an administration that does not protect the health of its people.
4
Suddenly, I'm readying my DC row house for sale. I hadn't planned to sell in the near future but now I have fears that our robust housing market & economy is endangered by this guy.
7
Really, Cynic? If it lines up with your other financial planning, for example if you're retiring and ready to downsize, then sure, why not -- but otherwise, think long and hard and don't do anything rash that you might regret, based on fear. I have no plans to move even though I think Trump's an unmitigated disaster. You have to live somewhere...
Our existence is endangered by this clown.
If you can get your price, sell.
If you can get your price, sell.
1
As a result of trump and his cronies' policies, I expect a fizzle and wilt, not a "bump".
15
republicans destroyed education, destroyed unions (and jobs) by giving tax breaks to companies that moved to competitor countries, made the country sick with climate change, undercut health and security, raided the banks, took away safety nets and now are attacking the constitution and Bill of Rights. What does it take for Democrats to wake up?
30
4% growth? Only out of the mouths of con artists. It simply isn't going to happen in a mature economy. Trump has no experience in economics, or publicly traded institutions. I doubt he could even properly name 4 sectors of the economy. His "professional" experience, aside from being a game show host, is borrowing money, tax deferments and bankrupting companies.
I'm waiting for the day a 300 point drop in the DJI is dismissed as fake news
I'm waiting for the day a 300 point drop in the DJI is dismissed as fake news
38
Economic growth where? Other than aerospace/defense and oil/petrochemicals, the US is primarily an IMPORTER not an EXPORTER. On top of that put a stop to cheap labor migration in an aging population, develop a policy to place a new set of protectionist import duties on all those "imports" that do back and forth across the Canadian and Mexican borders during production (construction materials, agricultural products, aerospace and automobiles especially). Next, add rising interest rates and....BAM. Another Republican manufactured disaster they can blame on the Democrats who will inherit their mess.
13
Yellen claimed the other day that there would be no more financial crises. I recall Greenspan having the same sort of sunny disposition in the late 90s. So, in other words, expect there to be another major financial crisis one of these days. It's only a matter of time.
6
Well here is to hoping Trump takes some small lesson from Canada leading the G7 in growth currently (3x the U.S.) - with its liberal social policy that is forgiving and inviting to immigrants and refugees.
15
"Godot has to show up at [some] point" says two things. First Herzon must have never read Beckett. [A writer far more wise and important than, say, Milton Friedman and his fictions.] Godot NEVER shows up because he doesn't exist. So rather than facing the reality that they must take charge of their own future, the actors fidget around the stage in inert, absurd meaninglessness. Second, the dumping of copy editors at NYT has become immediately evident. ["same" rather than "some"!] Thankfully great copy editors DO exist; one just has to have the wisdom to recognize their importance!
11
Oh come on. Once Trump and the GOP Congress finally slams through tax cuts, despite the Dem's opposition, what will you liberals be reporting when the economy catches up to the stock market? The only reason the economy hasn't taken off yet is the uncertainty based on the complete obstruction of Trump-Everything by the left. Once the GOP maneuvers around this and the economy strengthens, my bet is the headlines will be "Trump Economy not Growing as Fast as Reagan's."
That's all you'll have.
That's all you'll have.
1
To DanielMarcMD,
You must mean like how the economies of Kansas and Louisiana took off after their big tax cuts. Conservative Republicans have trotted out that supply side theory over-and-over without any examples of where it has worked.
And, its those Democrats who are responsible for the Republican majority not being able to pass a replacement for Obamacare - right?
Look not to the stars, Brutus, look at the legislative incompetence of the Trump Administration and the inability of reactionary Republicans to agree with merely conservative Republicans.
Republicans control the House, Senate, White House, Supreme Court and most state legislatures and governor ships and still haven't been able to pass a significant piece of legislation. Get you act together and quit blaming everyone and everything else.
You must mean like how the economies of Kansas and Louisiana took off after their big tax cuts. Conservative Republicans have trotted out that supply side theory over-and-over without any examples of where it has worked.
And, its those Democrats who are responsible for the Republican majority not being able to pass a replacement for Obamacare - right?
Look not to the stars, Brutus, look at the legislative incompetence of the Trump Administration and the inability of reactionary Republicans to agree with merely conservative Republicans.
Republicans control the House, Senate, White House, Supreme Court and most state legislatures and governor ships and still haven't been able to pass a significant piece of legislation. Get you act together and quit blaming everyone and everything else.
32
ain't going to happen. More financial professionals are awaiting the "Trump Dump", as his inability to lead will cause the markets to realize that the emperor has no clothes. Trickle down is a complete hoax that has been disproved by reality- the only people to benefit from the tax break will be the wealthy- and the deficit (horrors according to the GOP) will soar.
15
"The only reason the economy hasn't taken off yet is the uncertainty based on the complete obstruction of Trump-Everything by the left..."
Um, ALL THREE branches of government are controlled by the Republican right. So, the only "obstruction" is the fact that their ideas are so incredibly bad that even they can't sell them to the American people or to their big-money donors.
People realize how absurd it is to take 22 million off of health care. That cripples the industry, who stood to make a lot more money with more people having insurance than with millions less having it.
Um, ALL THREE branches of government are controlled by the Republican right. So, the only "obstruction" is the fact that their ideas are so incredibly bad that even they can't sell them to the American people or to their big-money donors.
People realize how absurd it is to take 22 million off of health care. That cripples the industry, who stood to make a lot more money with more people having insurance than with millions less having it.
19
Oh, so sad. Not winning?
5
Trump will screw up the economy just like the two Bushes did. Economic policy that starts and ends with tax cuts for the rich doesn't work. Trump is adding the further step of working to make us as uncompetitive as possible on the world stage.
He'll coast awhile on Obama's accomplishments before it all goes south. Reality always wins in the end.
He'll coast awhile on Obama's accomplishments before it all goes south. Reality always wins in the end.
56
What did Republicans expect from a man who caused six bankruptcies? And what do voters expect from a party that created a disaster in Kansas? As long as the Republicans hold down salaries, drive up health care costs, destroy employer provided benefits and insist that immigrants are not contributing billions of tax dollars to our economy, things will only get worse. They will deliver another recession to the US, and this time maybe even worse.
73
Trump's actions have been as empty as his juvenile rhetoric. American withdrawal from the world, euphemistically called "America First," will slow the growth of jobs in the country, the lack of reasonable health-care reform will mean a less healthy workforce, the lack of tax reform, the lack of infrastructure spending, the prohibition against a younger immigrant workforce—all these will produce a stagnating economy.
Instead of concerning himself with these, our "president" obsesses over non-existent voter fraud, the criticism of him personally by media outlets, and his businesses cashing in on his office.
The Republican Congress has proved just an incompetent at moving legislation as they were under Obama.
Never mind the "Trump Bump"—we'll soon be discussing the Trump recession.
Instead of concerning himself with these, our "president" obsesses over non-existent voter fraud, the criticism of him personally by media outlets, and his businesses cashing in on his office.
The Republican Congress has proved just an incompetent at moving legislation as they were under Obama.
Never mind the "Trump Bump"—we'll soon be discussing the Trump recession.
23
Oh, tRump is doing the "bump," just not in the U.S. economy, or the stock market. He has no knowledge of either one. His is the knowledge of the more "human" impulses.
6
Could this be due to Congress blocking progress on tax reform and Obamacare revision? The brakes are still dragging.
2
Could be.
At the behest of a significant majority of their constituents back home.
It's the only logical explanation. Either that or an awakening of moral character.
My money is on pressure from constituents.
At the behest of a significant majority of their constituents back home.
It's the only logical explanation. Either that or an awakening of moral character.
My money is on pressure from constituents.
12
Destroying rural healthcare services will certainly provide a big bump to the economy.
3
The physics of economics don't change just because the White House or Congress changes parties, and especially just because an entitled ignoramus is President. We have some real drags on economic growth, and no, they aren't due to regulation or laws.
Except, however, for those changes to how we structure the rules of economic growth, so to funnel more of the value created away from the people who create it (workers) and towards those who write the rules (shareholders, investors, senior management). This has become a tax upon the engine of growth which isn't paid by the very wealthy. A very efficient way to enhance accumulation of value to the few.
No one is dying in the streets from hunger; there are no long unemployment lines at soup kitchens. Why revolt? It's a very effective parasitic relationship. the class war is over, and guess who won?
Except, however, for those changes to how we structure the rules of economic growth, so to funnel more of the value created away from the people who create it (workers) and towards those who write the rules (shareholders, investors, senior management). This has become a tax upon the engine of growth which isn't paid by the very wealthy. A very efficient way to enhance accumulation of value to the few.
No one is dying in the streets from hunger; there are no long unemployment lines at soup kitchens. Why revolt? It's a very effective parasitic relationship. the class war is over, and guess who won?
14
Until the gains in income are spread more evenly across the middle and lower classes, our consumer-driven economy will continue to chug along at 2% growth, plus-or-minus. Consumer spending is 70% of the economy. Income going to the middle and lower classes gets spent immediately; it's good for the businesses owned by everyone, including the top 10%. We need government policies that provide relief to those classes. Health care is a great example. But the Republicans don't want government to pay for the less fortunate.
15
Unless Trump changes course, it is far more likely that there will be a Trump-slump instead of a Trump-bump. Despite Trump's campaign rhetoric about making major investments in U.S. infrastructure, he has not followed through on this in any way. If he let's a Republican Congress make all the important decisions, which he has so far, he will have the same poor economic record as his Republican predecessors.
19
The Obama Economy recovered through responsible fiscal management and the reestablishment of minimal regulations to rein in markets whose undisciplined lying had nearly crashed the world. It was achieved in coordination with our foreign trading partners. But, it was always denied a domestic growth expansion by Republicans withholding 'deficit funding' - an oxymoron of a rationale when one considers the insane amounts they are willing to spring for military industrial toys that don't necessarily even work and have dubious 'ploughshare application' unless you count our computer crashing because someone sold a virus out the back door to discredit the NSA and rationalize a Trump Purge of our intelligence services.
Trump gained office through preaching to the same disaffected blue collar contingent who were most adversely affected by the GOP's refusal to support jobs and growth government spending. Despite this we have seen an impressive recovery curve. Now, however, that ship has stalled in the water and is vulnerable to the next wave of turbulence or disruption. Plus we're stuck with Captain Trump who's sure someone stole his strawberries. If his hands weren't so small, he'd be juggling those ball bearings.
Trump's destructive message was supported and wedded to the GOP's greedy grab combined with retrogressive withdrawal from the Paris Accord and Pacific Trade + Nafta, that isolationist combo will prove nasty. Who will Trump "FIRE" when the numbers come in -3%?
Trump gained office through preaching to the same disaffected blue collar contingent who were most adversely affected by the GOP's refusal to support jobs and growth government spending. Despite this we have seen an impressive recovery curve. Now, however, that ship has stalled in the water and is vulnerable to the next wave of turbulence or disruption. Plus we're stuck with Captain Trump who's sure someone stole his strawberries. If his hands weren't so small, he'd be juggling those ball bearings.
Trump's destructive message was supported and wedded to the GOP's greedy grab combined with retrogressive withdrawal from the Paris Accord and Pacific Trade + Nafta, that isolationist combo will prove nasty. Who will Trump "FIRE" when the numbers come in -3%?
20
45's philosophy is anti job. Look at facts and reality. Every "policy", from health care plan, to budget cuts in all but defense equals job losses. Those that believed the false hype from the campaign and the current tweets, etc. will probably suffer the most. The negative "domino effect" of republican policy can only lead to fiscal disaster.
11
Trump's anti immigration rhetoric and his inability to move forward on infrastructure spending are the reasons for our continued "slow growth" economy. Withdrawing from Asian trade deal and retreating from the Paris accords is not helping our economy either. We need more workers forming families, buying and furnishing homes and having kids. To get that done we need educated immigrants willing to work here and feel safe (inspite of Trump and middle America's anti immigrant message) With inflation very low and jobs for everyone who wants one, I think the 2 percent annual increase in GDP is here to stay. Maybe that isn't such a bad thing.
12
What is most dismaying to me is the idea, prior and just after the election, that Trump would be at all good for our economy. I think this is due to the persistent myth that Republicans are good for "growth". The reality is much different. Republicans are terrible for our economy. For the last twenty five years, every Republican administration has left the economy in worse shape than they found it, relying upon a Democrat to come and clean up their mess.
George W. Bush left us on the precipice of a depression, and it was only through the incredible skills of President Obama that we avoided that calamity, though the damage Bush did to our economy still resonates and has yet to fully recover.
By contrast, Trump has no concept of economics beyond leveraging bankruptcy for personal gain. How can we expect an economy to grow when our current leadership has no economic policy beyond the zombie lie of trickle down?
If we want economic growth we need to invest in our nation again, not more ponzi schemes for the 1% and endless wars. Infrastructure spending without privatization. Universal, single-payer healthcare. And wages and salaries that reflect the reality of the world we live in with its ever increasing cost of living.
George W. Bush left us on the precipice of a depression, and it was only through the incredible skills of President Obama that we avoided that calamity, though the damage Bush did to our economy still resonates and has yet to fully recover.
By contrast, Trump has no concept of economics beyond leveraging bankruptcy for personal gain. How can we expect an economy to grow when our current leadership has no economic policy beyond the zombie lie of trickle down?
If we want economic growth we need to invest in our nation again, not more ponzi schemes for the 1% and endless wars. Infrastructure spending without privatization. Universal, single-payer healthcare. And wages and salaries that reflect the reality of the world we live in with its ever increasing cost of living.
40
Why would anyone invest in America now?
The Trump Administration has made clear that the 1% will grab what it can and the rest of us will saving and then losing our 'discretionary' income to healthcare costs. Jobs are promised amid praise and then gone overseas in the dark of night. Incompetence in the White House matches disfunction in the GOP Congress. Will the supermajority GOP accomplish anything this year?
The Trump world outlook of us versus them is making our old and possibly new allies shy away. Why negotiate new trade deals with a country without effective leadership? Why make an economic agreement that can be ignored and broken with a tweet?
Growth comes from careful tending in the garden so to say. When chaos and deconstruction are promoted by your own government, people hold tight and begin to hunker down.
The Trump Administration has made clear that the 1% will grab what it can and the rest of us will saving and then losing our 'discretionary' income to healthcare costs. Jobs are promised amid praise and then gone overseas in the dark of night. Incompetence in the White House matches disfunction in the GOP Congress. Will the supermajority GOP accomplish anything this year?
The Trump world outlook of us versus them is making our old and possibly new allies shy away. Why negotiate new trade deals with a country without effective leadership? Why make an economic agreement that can be ignored and broken with a tweet?
Growth comes from careful tending in the garden so to say. When chaos and deconstruction are promoted by your own government, people hold tight and begin to hunker down.
28
It seems as though it will take considerably more time to undo the damage that Obama did to our economy.
Put down the kool aid. Everything the president can't do he will blame on his predecessor. Is the eight years of constant recovery from the worst recession the damage you are talking about ?
16
Hey Ray,
How soon we forget the mess left by George WMD Bush. Call up some numbers from 2008.
How soon we forget the mess left by George WMD Bush. Call up some numbers from 2008.
7
So it's true. Someone in Texas does have a sense of humor.
2
If health care were tied to a government program instead of to employment then perhaps one of the elements that leads to the dumping of baby boomers under the guise of "company restructuring" would be eliminated - and perhaps it would not be so difficult for older Americans to remain in the work force.
But THAT horse already left the barn, the farm, and the state.
But THAT horse already left the barn, the farm, and the state.
12
Trump infused has always meant failure, if's his only constant
7
I do not claim to be an expert in the field of economics, far from it. But there are three red flags that would possibly perpetuate or worsen stagnation. The first being the minimum wage. It has got to increase, without question. It is cruel to expect people to spend when they can barely put food on the table or roofs over their heads. Next is automation. Our technology, so important in this 21st Century, also is replacing human hands in favor of the "more affordable" machine. Last is health care. If we think it is expensive now with regulations under the ACA, we are in for a shock if we inherit the GOP version.
If we analyze the above, we are left with one question: Who exactly is profiting at our expense? I believe we already know the answer.
If we analyze the above, we are left with one question: Who exactly is profiting at our expense? I believe we already know the answer.
13
The Republicons are unwilling and/or unable to learn - the hard way or the easy way - the benefits of infrastructure projects and borrowing at low interest rates.
12
How anyone thought there would be a Trump Bump is beyond me. Stronger consumer confidence? More than half the population was against him and knew he is severely mentally ill and would be devastating for the country and the world.
Big business I guess were so focused on massive corporate tax cuts--which do little for economic growth anyway--that they were willing to delude themselves.
Welcome to reality. Trump is a disaster, and he hasn't even hasn't even had to deal with anything yet! Just wait until there's a recession and he is out there saying we need to let the rot work its way through the system.
Big business I guess were so focused on massive corporate tax cuts--which do little for economic growth anyway--that they were willing to delude themselves.
Welcome to reality. Trump is a disaster, and he hasn't even hasn't even had to deal with anything yet! Just wait until there's a recession and he is out there saying we need to let the rot work its way through the system.
15
2% Growth under Obama=Anemic
2% Growth under Trump= Robust
2% Growth under Trump= Robust
34
The only 'real' growth here has been the market push by market professionals to siphon off more money from the non professional investors. Granted, the small investors are looking to ride the wave that really isn't there. But that is always the way in a flim-flam scheme. What do you expect in a in an economy lead by the huckster-in-chief? BTW...look out for another housing bubble burst.
5
Well, he won't have Obama to kick around anymore; at least not economically. If the economy stays stagnant, Trump owns it (I guess those government statistics will go back to being "phony."). Who knew?!...the economy was so complicated? And, how are you going to pay to retrain the workforce when you don't want them to have health care? Automate; no worries about safety, benefits, or pensions. Besides, De Vos is the minister of non-Education. Maybe we should rely on 'company schools' to fill the bill. The American public needs to know truth about its progress. Once again, Trump stumbles out of the gate.
10
Trump said it all with "they tapped my wires...and found nothing". The best we can hope for is four years of nothing. No improvements in healthcare, infrastructure, tax relief, trade imbalance, the environment, or terrorism. Trump and the regressive Republicans can only undo and obstruct. There is no plan or consensus for progress. The GOP is too divided to govern.
11
Nobody ever took the "4 percent growth" statements seriously except the folks who voted for Trump who would have no idea what GDP even means.
32
A two percent growth rate could be a constant, over time, for mature economies like ours. Thomas Piketty, in his "Capital In The Twenty-First Century", makes a pretty good case that it is.
We have a recent natural experiment in Japan to test Piketty's theory. As the Japanese economy came off an era of mercantilist, export-led growth, the fortunes of ordinary Japanese declined. They responded by having children later, and then by not marrying and not having children at all. The population grew older and shrank.The countryside is now dotted with ghost towns and cities in which few or no people now live. Wealthy Japanese are not much affected.
Again, this is a result Piketty would expect. His classic formulation, r>g, means that, if return on investment is greater than growth in the secular economy, all of a nation's wealth will eventually accumulate at the top. It is only when secular growth exceeds the rate of wealth accumulation that economic inequality is held at bay.
Think it can't happen here? The rate of births among women of prime child bearing years just hit a historic low in the United States. We could make up for the loss by encouraging immigration, but there is Trump . . .
We have a recent natural experiment in Japan to test Piketty's theory. As the Japanese economy came off an era of mercantilist, export-led growth, the fortunes of ordinary Japanese declined. They responded by having children later, and then by not marrying and not having children at all. The population grew older and shrank.The countryside is now dotted with ghost towns and cities in which few or no people now live. Wealthy Japanese are not much affected.
Again, this is a result Piketty would expect. His classic formulation, r>g, means that, if return on investment is greater than growth in the secular economy, all of a nation's wealth will eventually accumulate at the top. It is only when secular growth exceeds the rate of wealth accumulation that economic inequality is held at bay.
Think it can't happen here? The rate of births among women of prime child bearing years just hit a historic low in the United States. We could make up for the loss by encouraging immigration, but there is Trump . . .
17
The sooner the 'Trump Bump' implodes the better for any hope of establishing a real and sustainable economy.
It's a fantasy of hope over reason that has kept the stock market so high since the election of Trump - hope that deregulation of domestic industries, coupled with severe regulation of foreign ones would turn the tide to prosperity for everyone. Well, not everyone. Just the most important people in the country, the ones with the most money already. We are told we should be happy about that, because its only through them, we receive the trickle down dregs that sustain us.
Heaven forbid, we begin to grow our own food, establish communal businesses that pay workers real wages and dividends, begin to live in smaller houses, drive eco friendly vehicles, stop buying every blessed thing that comes on the market, begin to own our own lives, instead of signing them away to pay for the things we are told we need to live up to the American Dream.
Heaven forbid we save the money we have earned to use on a rainy day. What a horrible thing that is for an economy that depends on consumption. It should be everyone's patriotic duty to go deeply into debt, pile on record amounts onto multiple credit cards, and keep on spending.
We've almost played that tape to the end. But instead of doing what we need to be doing, we double down on the failing system. Trump was going to do it? Really? Did no one even bother to consider the source?
Unbelievable.
It's a fantasy of hope over reason that has kept the stock market so high since the election of Trump - hope that deregulation of domestic industries, coupled with severe regulation of foreign ones would turn the tide to prosperity for everyone. Well, not everyone. Just the most important people in the country, the ones with the most money already. We are told we should be happy about that, because its only through them, we receive the trickle down dregs that sustain us.
Heaven forbid, we begin to grow our own food, establish communal businesses that pay workers real wages and dividends, begin to live in smaller houses, drive eco friendly vehicles, stop buying every blessed thing that comes on the market, begin to own our own lives, instead of signing them away to pay for the things we are told we need to live up to the American Dream.
Heaven forbid we save the money we have earned to use on a rainy day. What a horrible thing that is for an economy that depends on consumption. It should be everyone's patriotic duty to go deeply into debt, pile on record amounts onto multiple credit cards, and keep on spending.
We've almost played that tape to the end. But instead of doing what we need to be doing, we double down on the failing system. Trump was going to do it? Really? Did no one even bother to consider the source?
Unbelievable.
9
The 5%" Trump bump" is an economic and political illusion/delusion.
Look at reality
1. The baby boomers are aging out, present birth rates are below replacement, ( population is growing but by immigration.). As Vadertime notes he is settling in and downsizing..
2. Global economic growth in the developed world is 1 to 2 % over the last 20 to 25 years. Exceptions are the undeveloped, China and India at 7% -9% or slightly more, that comes off a huge huge base with nothing. Note they are slowing down , I believe they are well below 7% the numbers are puffed for political reasons.
3. The world can only support so much human activity we are harvesting our nest to its limits. Hopefully we don't grow until we destroy it, grew up on Bradbury, Asimov teal, scarystuff, at least a nuance of truth.
I shall leave alone the last 75 years under Republicans and the SAD history.
Ciao
Look at reality
1. The baby boomers are aging out, present birth rates are below replacement, ( population is growing but by immigration.). As Vadertime notes he is settling in and downsizing..
2. Global economic growth in the developed world is 1 to 2 % over the last 20 to 25 years. Exceptions are the undeveloped, China and India at 7% -9% or slightly more, that comes off a huge huge base with nothing. Note they are slowing down , I believe they are well below 7% the numbers are puffed for political reasons.
3. The world can only support so much human activity we are harvesting our nest to its limits. Hopefully we don't grow until we destroy it, grew up on Bradbury, Asimov teal, scarystuff, at least a nuance of truth.
I shall leave alone the last 75 years under Republicans and the SAD history.
Ciao
6
We are in the 8th year of the Great Recession. We cannot expect big increases in GDP at this time. Reducing taxes for the Rich--upper 5%-- will have no affect on GDP increases.
An Infrastructure program would be good for the country, paid for in part by increases in taxes on the Rich; not reducing Medical Care for the poor & lower middle class. We would draw blue collar workers into that effort & train new younger people with just a high school diploma or less for some. Their earnings would help pay for another part of the program and have a lasting affect on our country.
An Infrastructure program would be good for the country, paid for in part by increases in taxes on the Rich; not reducing Medical Care for the poor & lower middle class. We would draw blue collar workers into that effort & train new younger people with just a high school diploma or less for some. Their earnings would help pay for another part of the program and have a lasting affect on our country.
5
To get the Trump bump, you need the corporate tax cuts. Corporations investment depends on estimated after tax returns. Lower taxes means more projects, which means more jobs, which is what GDP growth is. "The Resistance" prevents the bump.
Say What? You didn't already know that our biggest corporations pay zero effective tax? Are sitting on mountains of cash? What a minute! You believe that Trump's hair is real! That women marry him for love! The tooth fairy exists!
RESIST IGNORANCE
RESIST IGNORANCE
6
Lower taxes on corporations means more money for automation and moving to where the labor is cheapest, if the money is put anywhere other than in the pockets of the already wealthy That means less jobs.
6
Trickle down has been shown ineffective. The definition of insanity is trying the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
6
Trump's nose Bump will grow out of proportions, the economy not so good.
6
To think the world's biggest, lifetime phony (go ahead name one so called "deal" he is known for, I dare you) and now
FRI-POTUS, F for Fake, RI for Russia Installed, could have a positive effect on anything is the fantasy of a child.
Are you a child?
November 3, 2020.
Register and vote.
That's the day of liberation.
Unless Mueller liberates us before then.
FRI-POTUS, F for Fake, RI for Russia Installed, could have a positive effect on anything is the fantasy of a child.
Are you a child?
November 3, 2020.
Register and vote.
That's the day of liberation.
Unless Mueller liberates us before then.
12
How about November 2018? Local and congressional elections matter!
6
Surely the Trump bump happens when you hit rock bottom.
6
Yep. We used to just call it Chapter Bankruptcy.
"The Trump Dump"
"The Trump Dump"
2
For the first few months Trump bragged about "his winning" economy while in fact it was the work of Obama and his team that lingered over the first few months of the new administration. Now the Trump economy is starting to take shape and by this article it looks like is going nowhere. What will be the excuse? Regulations? ACA? I can bet money I don't have that Trump will blame someone other than himself and his administration.
12
My respect for Wall Street and the economic profession has been in heavy decline ever since they started to believe in Trump's nonsense about big economic reform. The stock market rose - based on what? A guy who has made thousands of promises he doesn't keep and who's own financial dealings are full of fraud. I thought these guys were supposed to be smart and cynical realists?
15
I want someone who is smarter than I am, to tell me what exactly in Trump's background should make his statement about the economy ready to take off as believable.
Donald Trump who has never in his life built his own business, never managed a industrial manufacturing enterprise, and someone who was set up in business as a real-estate man by his father, never had to learn to deal with a board of directors or investors.
Who can believe that Donald Trump's going to produce a 4 percent annual growth?
This is the same sleazy business man that is a pariah in the New York business and banking community, that took over companies and casinos with all kinds of grandiose promises only to file bankruptcy 4 times, manufacturers his own products and clothing overseas in sweatshops, buys Chinese steel and aluminum for his construction projects, ran scams in a phony Trump foundation and Trump University having to pay fines and people defrauded; I wouldn't take this Grifter's word on anything to do with our money or economy.
Donald Trump who has never in his life built his own business, never managed a industrial manufacturing enterprise, and someone who was set up in business as a real-estate man by his father, never had to learn to deal with a board of directors or investors.
Who can believe that Donald Trump's going to produce a 4 percent annual growth?
This is the same sleazy business man that is a pariah in the New York business and banking community, that took over companies and casinos with all kinds of grandiose promises only to file bankruptcy 4 times, manufacturers his own products and clothing overseas in sweatshops, buys Chinese steel and aluminum for his construction projects, ran scams in a phony Trump foundation and Trump University having to pay fines and people defrauded; I wouldn't take this Grifter's word on anything to do with our money or economy.
45
No, Godot does not have to show up. He doesn't in the play, and the point is that continuing to wait for him instead of taking charge of one's own life is stupid. The same can be said for waiting for a rebound when people don't have the money to buy consumer goods because more and more jobs are minimum wage and housing and education costs are through the roof & eat up any discretionary income people might have. If we want to take charge of our own lives, we should vote for progressive politicians who understand that a healthy economy requires a well-educated & well-paid populace, not just a fabulously rich 1%.
6
Trump bump already happened. Up 25% in 5 portfolios.
Wishful thinking does not good policy make. Trump seems to think that stating something will happen will make it so. It most certainly does not. The irony is that he inherited an improving and stable economy from President Obama, who he routinely blames for everything. Clearly he is doing nothing to ensure that stability continues, so it will not. I wince when he and his C-student sons (I'm being generous) point to the rise in the market as proof of his prowess. What goes up comes down, as every investor knows. Will he then accept responsibility, or blame Mr. Obama? How long can a president blame his predecessor until even his most rabid supporters reject him?
8
Well, I'll be. They believed every lie he told them but they will still support him, because........
5
The boring eight yrs of Obama's slow by steady growth, getting us out of the second worst eco crisis in history is still in effect.
The demagogue Trump signs his exec. fiats in the WH like a king.
Corporations are running the show. Our fate is in their hands.
The demagogue Trump signs his exec. fiats in the WH like a king.
Corporations are running the show. Our fate is in their hands.
4
The NYT hails the prospect of a possible speedbump in the US economy as if it t was good news when actually it is fake news based on selective predictions regarding future trends. The NYT is obviously still "in for Hillary" no matter what and would obviously be thrilled if the economy tanked just to be able to say, "I told you so." As Trump would say--Sad!
Donald Trump's economic plan has been an unrealistic "pie in the sky" over promise and under deliver exercise in failed economics. His assertions of tax cuts and reform, better and more affordable healthcare trade parity or more fair trade policies have left us confused and in disarray. His contributions so far have yielded a 1000 jobs saved in Indiana of which a month later shipped half of those to Mexico.
His lack of attention to detail I find appalling and his performance although early in his tenure disappointing.
Given our debt limitations on the corporate, public and private sectors a receding of consumer and corporate confidence will eventually lead to another crash or worse.
His lack of attention to detail I find appalling and his performance although early in his tenure disappointing.
Given our debt limitations on the corporate, public and private sectors a receding of consumer and corporate confidence will eventually lead to another crash or worse.
4
So, we are 9 years or so into this economic recovery, one of the longest in history, but economic growth is still anemic at 3% or less, average. This truly is the "new normal", a phrase that's been bandied about for the past 5 years, but appears to be reluctantly accepted by even the most optimistic, rose-colored glasses economic camp. I'm not an economist, but I have an MBA and I've economics has been my pet subject since my freshman year in college. Here's a prediction.
I'm a baby-boomer, who is making a very decent income. I'm preparing for retirement in the next few years, which is why last week I bought a house in the place I plan to retire. Right now and over the next decade or so, lots of baby-boomers like me are going to be leaving the work force. We are going to retire to smaller homes, have only one vehicle and probably live on fixed incomes. We'll be comfortable, but we won't be spending and consuming the way we did during our working lives. How do you think this is going to impact the economy? Look to Japan for the answer. They've been experiencing it for 2 decades now.
I'm a baby-boomer, who is making a very decent income. I'm preparing for retirement in the next few years, which is why last week I bought a house in the place I plan to retire. Right now and over the next decade or so, lots of baby-boomers like me are going to be leaving the work force. We are going to retire to smaller homes, have only one vehicle and probably live on fixed incomes. We'll be comfortable, but we won't be spending and consuming the way we did during our working lives. How do you think this is going to impact the economy? Look to Japan for the answer. They've been experiencing it for 2 decades now.
152
The "growth" that one speaks of, what is it exactly?
Is it the "growth" associated with "sustenance" where a new house has to be built since an old one "died" or is it building a new house because mankind's population has just grown by one person, over the last microsecond?
The latter kind of growth is in some sense "worrisome" because of this "thing" called the carrying capacity of the Earth. Is this type of growth the one where we keep "building" while not "clean up" so that we have, for instance, accumulation of plastic in the oceans and chemical seepage everywhere?
Put in cheaper labor from abroad as well as robots and now you start to have a fairly complex system to analyze.
How do people make a living? How much work is going to be available for the "sustenance" of "things" vs. true growth such as innovation (transition to solar or medical discovery)?
I wish I had the knowledge to differentiate between all these types of growth so that I can understand how they are to be given their proper dues.
Right now it seems that, depending on geography, big cities are getting bigger and more "rural" type of cities are slowly dying.
Just like big rivers with strong flow in some sections and back water on some edges, there are forces at work that are bigger than we are. We need to understand (not just the experts) the dynamics so as to make intelligent fact-based decisions.
A truly educated citizenry, feeding of facts rather that ideological emotions, is always better.
Is it the "growth" associated with "sustenance" where a new house has to be built since an old one "died" or is it building a new house because mankind's population has just grown by one person, over the last microsecond?
The latter kind of growth is in some sense "worrisome" because of this "thing" called the carrying capacity of the Earth. Is this type of growth the one where we keep "building" while not "clean up" so that we have, for instance, accumulation of plastic in the oceans and chemical seepage everywhere?
Put in cheaper labor from abroad as well as robots and now you start to have a fairly complex system to analyze.
How do people make a living? How much work is going to be available for the "sustenance" of "things" vs. true growth such as innovation (transition to solar or medical discovery)?
I wish I had the knowledge to differentiate between all these types of growth so that I can understand how they are to be given their proper dues.
Right now it seems that, depending on geography, big cities are getting bigger and more "rural" type of cities are slowly dying.
Just like big rivers with strong flow in some sections and back water on some edges, there are forces at work that are bigger than we are. We need to understand (not just the experts) the dynamics so as to make intelligent fact-based decisions.
A truly educated citizenry, feeding of facts rather that ideological emotions, is always better.
5
Is the economy experiencing the final fruits of “trickle down” economics? Massive deficits and debt levels initiated with the Bush tax cuts are bearing fruit and hampering on-going growth.
Let us hope this canard gets buried once and for all.
Let us hope this canard gets buried once and for all.
7
Spoiler alert: Godot never shows up.
13
And the right wing insists on calling people with gloomy predictions "Cassandra", because right wingers don't know that Cassandra's predictions were always correct although never believed.
1
Not the only is there no "Trump Bump", but there is going to be a "Trump Crash".
As we have all heard again and again, markets like "certainty". Mr Trump is a
"loose canon on the deck" and is as unpredictable as they come. Add to that the fact that nobody will trust what He says, and you have a rudderless ship of state sailing headlong towards an "economic iceberg" The crash is coming. It may come through the demise of health care for millions or from an international crisis that He miss-manages, but it's coming. It's the 4th turning that Bannon is looking for. My suggestion...canned food, bottled water, a wood stove and a shotgun.
As we have all heard again and again, markets like "certainty". Mr Trump is a
"loose canon on the deck" and is as unpredictable as they come. Add to that the fact that nobody will trust what He says, and you have a rudderless ship of state sailing headlong towards an "economic iceberg" The crash is coming. It may come through the demise of health care for millions or from an international crisis that He miss-manages, but it's coming. It's the 4th turning that Bannon is looking for. My suggestion...canned food, bottled water, a wood stove and a shotgun.
18
Growth comes with original, new ideas. Trump's emphasis on returning old, out-dated Market Products and poor business practices (rollbacks) is not growth. Also, Trump's approach to Education is more dumb-down, than advance. DeVos does not have the necessary Resume Higher Education Credentials to run the USA Education system. By selecting DeVos, Trump already has given-up power within the University System as well as a significant amount of K-12. Probably some economic report forecasts didn't even entertain the possibility of a Trump Bump, because of the many problematic failures already on his business record.
10
I'm so tired of this. Other than that, I've got nothing.
4
Ditto.
1
What?! Tired of winning already?
2
A Trump dump is more likely to come to pass than a bump. Only the 1% and the banksters were clearly set to benefit from the Trump version of a healthy, dirty economy. Now even that gambit has lost momentum in the real world. Trump knew nothing about the underpinnings of the national economy coming in to office and he hasn't bestirred himself to learn more. Ergo his "winning, winning, winning" cheers that worked so well on his supporters is beginning to sound stupid. Stupid doesn't end well in economics.
18
A good source of information about the economy with Trump at the helm would be the US bankers who wouldn't lend him funds for his businesses.
5
The Trump Slump always seemed more likely than a Trump bump. As many of us thought, having a government run by an unstable, narcissistic, mendacious ignoramus isn't good for business.
22
This sounds awful, but this is the best news I have gotten in a while. Why? Because it means that most voters who voted for Trump in 2016--outside the hardcore 20% who think this man walks on water--will start to abandon him. Where is this booming economy with a surge in great-paying jobs, especially in the rural regions, he promised over and over and over again? It's nowhere to be found. He will, once again, be a politician who promised the moon and delivered almost nothing.
Remember that a lackluster economy sunk George H.W. Bush though he had great approval ratings during his first term. This man doesn't even have great approval ratings to plunge down from.
So the outlook for a Democratic House, and even Senate, has increased markedly for 2018. Then we can finally have some functional government that will be markedly more pro-middle class and poor, as opposed to the plutocratic plundering passing for governance that is going on right now under Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan.
Remember that a lackluster economy sunk George H.W. Bush though he had great approval ratings during his first term. This man doesn't even have great approval ratings to plunge down from.
So the outlook for a Democratic House, and even Senate, has increased markedly for 2018. Then we can finally have some functional government that will be markedly more pro-middle class and poor, as opposed to the plutocratic plundering passing for governance that is going on right now under Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan.
14
Sounds good but I think you are forgetting about all the Republican gerrymandering that has taken place since GHWB, the House especially will be hard to turn.
2
Consumer confidence? Wage growth not a positive outlook is necessary for real consumer spending. Miniscule tax cuts won't do a thing for the working class. We need a raise!
12
"To be sure, most mainstream economists do not foresee an imminent recession." That's cold comfort. They didn't see the housing crash either.
11
Growth around 2% is just dandy. It is only the sociopaths on Wall Street, who feel a compulsion to add to their unspendably-huge plies of money for them to have inner peace and self worth, who are insisting we need 5% growth or the world will end. Two percent will keep us chugging along, making jobs and keep us from letting Wall Street overheat the economy again. No, it won't bring back coal jobs and other fantasies, but for the vast majority of the country it will be just fine.
25
Two percent growth would be great if it could find its way into increased wages for the working people of the country instead of the already bulging pockets of the richest of the rich.
1
"Waiting for Godot" seems an appropriate metaphor notwithstanding Trump's "all over the policy map" governance instability. Now, he takes his distopic message to Europe obviously in hopes of appearing savior-like and worthy of the inglorious future of Western Civilization. I suspect that continued growth of any ilk is good news irrespective of looking glass forecasters of good growth or doomsayers.
6
What all these articles ignore is that health care is a major driver in the economy, and Trump and the Republican Congress are doing their best to reverse economic growth in the American health care sector. Taking billions out of Medicaid. Making the future of Obamacare very uncertain so insurers, hospitals, and clinic systems have a difficult time planning or committing to expansion. My clinic system just instituted a freeze on creating new positions and canned a major building project - if Medicaid is cut there will be a lot of layoffs.
162
Mayo is the largest employer in Minnesota, followed by state and federal governments. Five of the twelve largest Minnesota employers are in the healthcare sector. Our local clinic and hospital, which we are almost certain to lose under the Republican plan, are not just vital to the health and wellbeing of our community. They are also a major component of the local economy. If passed, the Republican plan has the potential to quickly send our slowing national economy into contraction.
6
@APB Boise - I am with you, perhaps this article should not be presenting a health care paragraph but the Times should be presenting systematic comparisons of US with countries with universal health care. Providing such UHC is challenging, not least in Sweden where at this time of year it is no. 1 on everybody's complaint list, including hospital staff, especially nurses.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Dual citizen US SE
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Dual citizen US SE
Trump University degrees don't produce healthy economies.....they produce bankruptcy filings and economic collapse.
Let's give the Snake Oil some more time to do its catastrophic work.
Let's give the Snake Oil some more time to do its catastrophic work.
82
How can one of the "problems" be an aging workforce, when older people are being shoved out of the workforce in large numbers? If there's such a shortage of workers, why aren't companies retaining their older workers? Why is it so difficult for anyone over 50 to find a decent job?
Ageism doesn't help either employers or workers. Few young folks want to have children these days because it costs too much to raise and educate them. Immigration is being severely curtailed. If there are fewer young workers, then employers had better get used to accommodating an older workforce. We older people will need to work until we drop dead, anyway. Retirement is impossible for most of us. So many are being crushed by debt. Wages are going to have to go up, and employers are going to have to accept older workers, if we are going to see any meaningful betterment in the standard of living for most people in this country.
Ageism doesn't help either employers or workers. Few young folks want to have children these days because it costs too much to raise and educate them. Immigration is being severely curtailed. If there are fewer young workers, then employers had better get used to accommodating an older workforce. We older people will need to work until we drop dead, anyway. Retirement is impossible for most of us. So many are being crushed by debt. Wages are going to have to go up, and employers are going to have to accept older workers, if we are going to see any meaningful betterment in the standard of living for most people in this country.
11
Really? Would any rational person believe that in 6 months of Trump and Republican control of government anything positive would have occurred? They have no new economic strategy since Reagan's tax cuts, trickle down and keep spending and drive the deficit higher. Even their Medicare D drug benefit expansion was not paid for annually increases the deficit ( and they voted to have no price control/negotiation on drug costs), unlike the ACA that created new taxes on the rich and was deficit neutral. They talk about huge economic gains but have no strategy to achieve it. Anybody who believes otherwise will find out in the next 3.5 yrs, good luck with that.
89
There's two very simple explanations for what's going on:
1) A high-growth economy relies on consumer spending, and most consumers have experienced wage stagnation for the past 20 years: All the income growth has gone to the top 10% (even more so the top 1%), who neither need or want to spend more than they already do; and,
2) Pres. Obama tried to get infrastructure-spending legislation passed repeatedly and was always met with GOP obstruction. Now that interest rates are rising, that window is closing.
Is it any coincidence that the Republicans are responsible for BOTH of these problems? I still can't understand why Fox News isn't reporting this...
1) A high-growth economy relies on consumer spending, and most consumers have experienced wage stagnation for the past 20 years: All the income growth has gone to the top 10% (even more so the top 1%), who neither need or want to spend more than they already do; and,
2) Pres. Obama tried to get infrastructure-spending legislation passed repeatedly and was always met with GOP obstruction. Now that interest rates are rising, that window is closing.
Is it any coincidence that the Republicans are responsible for BOTH of these problems? I still can't understand why Fox News isn't reporting this...
393
"I still can't understand why Fox News isn't reporting this...." Your understated sarcasm is perfect and on the point.
Here is a clue to the economists and market analysts...Some people are intentionally not spending the cash we have.
Why not? As they said in business school, "cash is king". As a middle class person of color who is a citizen, I need to conserve my cash.
Why am I hoarding cash/liquid assets? Given the corruption, incompetence and racial prejudice of the current US president, and given that the republican controlled Congress is NOT going to be FOR me, those who have cash will have more options and suffer less harm when the government turns on us.
Why not? As they said in business school, "cash is king". As a middle class person of color who is a citizen, I need to conserve my cash.
Why am I hoarding cash/liquid assets? Given the corruption, incompetence and racial prejudice of the current US president, and given that the republican controlled Congress is NOT going to be FOR me, those who have cash will have more options and suffer less harm when the government turns on us.
Perfectly stated!
The Administration has accomplished it's main objective and purpose of its creation: Create or Be a distraction large enough to take focus off income inequality to help quash any talk of raising the minimum wage, or taxing the rich or clawing back settlements from the top 2%.
We have been duped.
The Administration has accomplished it's main objective and purpose of its creation: Create or Be a distraction large enough to take focus off income inequality to help quash any talk of raising the minimum wage, or taxing the rich or clawing back settlements from the top 2%.
We have been duped.
I wonder what the market would make of a Trump impeachment, followed by a Republican pardon of all the crimes of those in his administration. It didn't like Nixon's end as I remember.
Hugh Massengill, Eugene Oregon
Hugh Massengill, Eugene Oregon
4
The "Trump Bump" I long for is the one that bumps this nincompoop out of office.
126
Trump's on track to fail at virtually everything. His promises were nothing but sand in the wind for his sad, gullible true believers. Let's just hope that failure on every other front, and cable news mockery of his by the liberals, don't goad him into getting hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians burned alive in Seoul, not to mention all our troops and support workers, in a final, pathetic display of the wages of Trump's testosterone poisoning.
31
It took four years for Nixon to disintegrate psychologically. It took seven years for George W. Bush to destroy the US economy. Compared to these Republican presidents Donald Trump is way ahead of expectations.
117
"Nor is it strong enough to deliver big increases in household income, which has been stagnant for decades for all but the wealthiest slice of the population."
Based on the above, where is the spending going to come from? If prices are going to go up, and my pay is going to stay the same - how can I spend more?
Now, if I were in the "wealthiest slice," then no problem.
Based on the above, where is the spending going to come from? If prices are going to go up, and my pay is going to stay the same - how can I spend more?
Now, if I were in the "wealthiest slice," then no problem.
13
As far as, Trump is concerned ,if the economy rises it’s because of him & if it falters it’s Obama’s fault.He just can’t lose for winning.
18
"We had an opportunity to do some real heavy lifting on the infrastructure issue when interest rates were very low ... That window has now almost certainly closed ..."
Thanks, Congressional Republicans -- Great legacy to leave the next generation(s).
Thanks, Congressional Republicans -- Great legacy to leave the next generation(s).
44
Electing an egomaniacal, gleefully ignorant conman was meant to improve the economy in some way?
23
If the economists got out of their ivory towers and looked at real people living real lives around the country, they might begin to understand why people don't have money to spend.
Large car payments on mid-size cars that cost $30k and up (with more bells and whistles built in than are necessary); student loan repayments that never go away. For those starting households, all the cheap made-in-China junk you need for the house or the baby is now twice what it was ten years ago and of no better quality to warrant the increase.
Starter homes in decent suburbs are now virtually non-existent as local ordinances have allowed nice little houses to be torn down for mega-mansions; it now takes tens of thousands of dollars and years to save up for a down payment. Rent on a small 2-bedroom apartment is somewhere in the $2000/month range for workers who want to live anywhere near their jobs.
On and on and on. Seniors? Don't look at us. While Congress is trying to figure out how to screw us out of our Medicare and Social Security, they keep raising the premiums and lowering the paycheck increases. I don't know what they're using to calculate the rate of inflation for social security, but it's not the things that we actually buy...like medicine, toilet paper, auto repair...you know, essentials!
Large car payments on mid-size cars that cost $30k and up (with more bells and whistles built in than are necessary); student loan repayments that never go away. For those starting households, all the cheap made-in-China junk you need for the house or the baby is now twice what it was ten years ago and of no better quality to warrant the increase.
Starter homes in decent suburbs are now virtually non-existent as local ordinances have allowed nice little houses to be torn down for mega-mansions; it now takes tens of thousands of dollars and years to save up for a down payment. Rent on a small 2-bedroom apartment is somewhere in the $2000/month range for workers who want to live anywhere near their jobs.
On and on and on. Seniors? Don't look at us. While Congress is trying to figure out how to screw us out of our Medicare and Social Security, they keep raising the premiums and lowering the paycheck increases. I don't know what they're using to calculate the rate of inflation for social security, but it's not the things that we actually buy...like medicine, toilet paper, auto repair...you know, essentials!
31
"I don't know what they're using to calculate the rate of inflation for social security, but it's not the things that we actually buy...like medicine, toilet paper, auto repair...you know, essentials!"
Sad but true. The COLA is not connected to the realities of life.
Sad but true. The COLA is not connected to the realities of life.
1
I am afraid that the true "Trump Bump" will occur when North Korea aims its ICBMs at the US. Manufacturers of bombs, bullets, guns, and other supplies necessary for war will sprout exponentially.
4
Under Obama, 2% would be a bonanza. Under Trump, it's not what was expected....a not unexpected reaction from this newspaper
"Trump Bump"? That was always a fantasy created by the media in their rush tho placate the right wing. Markets don't like instability and that is all Trump creates. He is a disrupter without purpose except to get people to LOOK AT HIM!
Governing a country is not a reality show but the GOP is happy to have him because they can do their vile work while he creates chaos. Unfortunately, this isn't a reality show and real lives will be lost not just stock value! Dark days, indeed.
Governing a country is not a reality show but the GOP is happy to have him because they can do their vile work while he creates chaos. Unfortunately, this isn't a reality show and real lives will be lost not just stock value! Dark days, indeed.
28
Jobs #'s were fake news before he became 45. As soon as he was... he was the great job creator. Now that confidence has been dwindling for months, I expect him to blame Obama and his policies once again.
11
If one looks at The Dow when Obama took office it was at 6,700 when he left office it was over 19,000. An almost 300% increase.. Now it is up 10% since Trump took office and all of a sudden we hear how The Dow is so indicative of his success. Blindness!
19
Trump inherited a healthy economy and, though he has done nothing that really impacts the economy, has already taken credit for job growth (that is, job growth that was already strong when he took office).
So do give him credit for not tanking the economy right away. But when the slowdown comes, do not allow him to blame it on Obama, the guy who engineered a recovery from the mess that existed when he came into office. Or those nasty Democrats, who are the minority party in Congress. The slowdown belongs fully to Trump and the Republican party.
So do give him credit for not tanking the economy right away. But when the slowdown comes, do not allow him to blame it on Obama, the guy who engineered a recovery from the mess that existed when he came into office. Or those nasty Democrats, who are the minority party in Congress. The slowdown belongs fully to Trump and the Republican party.
64
2% growth? That's a fake news. Any case, the market will cheer, this time because the Fed now may reverse and hold the rate. And the Orange One will take the credit.
2
When the economy is great, Republicans tell us it's a great time to cut taxes on rich people. When the economy goes south, Republicans tell us the only solution is to cut taxes on rich people. Expect to hear even more than usual about that in the coming months. Don't expect to hear much about Trump's recent budgets and deficit forecasts assuming 4% growth. Ignore that elephant in the room!
68
Do no harm...Trump riding Obama's policies and taking credit. Thanks to GOP incompetence, no significant changes on the healthcare front and tax reform is further on the horizon.
On the other hand, let's hold our breath over the long hot summer as we watch foreign affairs slip out of our control.
With car sales down and job creation stagnant, consumer confidence is sure to follow. We'll know by September whether the deal-maker can conjure up more fake economic stats to slow his own descent.
On the other hand, let's hold our breath over the long hot summer as we watch foreign affairs slip out of our control.
With car sales down and job creation stagnant, consumer confidence is sure to follow. We'll know by September whether the deal-maker can conjure up more fake economic stats to slow his own descent.
14
Wait, now. The "many" who had hoped for a bump - woudn't these be the same as the many minority who voted for Trump? Cause we have already established that their expectations will not be met.
11
Trump never expected to be President so never had to come up with real economic policies. When he got elected by the electoral college he cobbled togeather some failed but ideologically acceptable plans. We know that the plan of cutting taxes for the rich did not work in the past. We know that de-regulations just puts the economy at risk. So we have a president doing all the things that history has though us wil fail and hoping that hubris will accelarate growth. As any economist will tell you, perceptions drive markets. But then, at some point, you have to face the cold hard facts and the data is telling us that 2% growth will be with us for awhile. Bet against that and do it at your peril.
13
The stock market has been booming over the expected changes Trump would bring. However, I invest according to my own view of the economy, which is that the economy will not grow until the bottom 70% gets a decent raise. So I have been betting against the stock market, and the idea of a Fed rate increase for a while now.
The country got 3% and better GDP growth in the past because workers got paid more in the past. Until workers get paid more, our economy is not going to do any of this stuff that the politicians and "businessmen" are saying.
The country got 3% and better GDP growth in the past because workers got paid more in the past. Until workers get paid more, our economy is not going to do any of this stuff that the politicians and "businessmen" are saying.
19
Trump and the GOP Congress oppose raising the minimum wage, and seek to strip 22 million (or more) Americans of health insurance to fund tax cuts for the rich. This reverse Robin Hood agenda will harm many Americans and increase income inequality.
10
Aaargh! Why is the Dow stock market index at 22,000, other than an over-valued bubble? In my view, out in small town America, there is too much student debt, baby boomers are retiring in droves and much less consumer spending. Bankruptcy due to medical bills are starting to rise and people work long hours at multiple jobs just to be able to pay for basic living expenses. Once the unemployment rate drops 1%, the stock market bubble will burst and the cascade of decreased spending and further layoffs will occur. 8 years since the great recession. Be prepared.
16
A huge bust-up on the stock market will be coming soon, and with that the end of the Trump era.
15
The U.S. 10-year Treasury Bond was at 1.5% a year ago, the lowest it had ever been. The Fed had begun, begrudging it seems, to raise its short-term interest rate to 0.25-0.5% in December 2015. President Obama had urgently pleaded in vain with the Republican controlled Congress to enact a meaningful infrastructure plan while rates were at historic lows going back to the early 2010s. McConnell, et al repeatedly stone-walled Obama's efforts. Yet the economy gradually recovered over the entire 8 years of Obama's presidency despite Republicans' craven efforts to thwart any positive economic help such as infrastructure, job training, etc. from Obama. The 10-year bond began a gradual recovery, but was still only at 1.8% or so when Trump was elected.
The 10-year bond then began a significant climb up to 2.6% and the stock market took off in the aftermath of the election in the "hope" that Trump's policies would engender growth. The markets acted irrationally, discounting the known facts of Trump's pathological lying, his narcissism, his sociopathic nature and inability to concentrate on anything for more than 3 minutes, his obsession with his fame and wealth. The bond market caught on and the 10-year dropped to 2.1%, yet the stock market, driven with record amounts of margin buying, stock buybacks, and leverage, continued to rise. That will end soon enough. North Korea launches an ICBM and the market barely budged. Irrationality has taken control. but it will end soon enough.
The 10-year bond then began a significant climb up to 2.6% and the stock market took off in the aftermath of the election in the "hope" that Trump's policies would engender growth. The markets acted irrationally, discounting the known facts of Trump's pathological lying, his narcissism, his sociopathic nature and inability to concentrate on anything for more than 3 minutes, his obsession with his fame and wealth. The bond market caught on and the 10-year dropped to 2.1%, yet the stock market, driven with record amounts of margin buying, stock buybacks, and leverage, continued to rise. That will end soon enough. North Korea launches an ICBM and the market barely budged. Irrationality has taken control. but it will end soon enough.
39
I closed out my investments in the market in early May. I really don’t pay much attention to “Bumps” least of all the one mentioned in the article. Trump stating a 4% growth in the economy is flat out fanciful. My simple rationale for exiting. Stocks are overvalued, i.e. Apple’s stock has risen 25% in the last 6 months. Why? Speculation and “pie in the sky” thinking is my take. The other is the rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Their the intent is to “cool” the economy, and if history repeats itself that’s exactly what will happen.
4
Buying into the stock market at 21,500 in 2017 is like buying a three bedroom tract house outside Las Vegas in 2007 for $750,000.
It won't end well.
It won't end well.
31
Just wait 'till next year. A lot of big retail debt comes due which will close tons of stores. Tech stocks are overpriced. Housing is also ready to pop again. It will be a recession for sure next year and then trump will attack North Korea to deflect from it while his supporters chant USA, USA! Get out while you still can.
10
Economic growth under Trump means more income for 10 percent and more tax paying by 90 precent of Americans.
not to mention, he attitude towards the free world will have consequences in long term
not to mention, he attitude towards the free world will have consequences in long term
12
It is starting to sink in that this time IS different. We've had good and bad presidents, but we've never had a completely unserious president. He did nothing to prepare for the job ands it's showing. We've never intentionally alienated allies (who are among our best customers) and all the promises of tax cuts can't keep a market strong when there is an erratic child at the helm.
209
W was not a serious man either, and admitted he didn't "do nuance." Trump almost makes him look good, but that is an almost. We are still paying the costs of his mid-east policies.
Who in their right mind believed that growth was going to accelerate let alone the preposterous assertions of Trump and Republicans that it was going to achieve levels of 4 to 5% for years. The economy is running on the momentum of the Obama years and if anything there is some reason to be watchful about where we go from here. This expansion is already very long in the tooth (not that there is any magic duration for expansions) and signs are accumulating it's peaked (declining auto sales). The major concern now has to be that Trump and the Republicans don't mess it up. Given historical precedent there is a fair chance they will.
268
Unfortunately thirty percent are not going to believe this. It's important that Fox News reports this so our President stops boasting.
35
Faux News and Trump live in an alt-fact world: Therefore:
A) Faux News won't report it.
B) Even if they did, Trump wouldn't stop boasting.
A) Faux News won't report it.
B) Even if they did, Trump wouldn't stop boasting.
3
The 'Trump Slump' when it comes, which seems inevitable, won't be pretty.
276
Trump's regressive approach to job creation (coal mines ? really ?), his ill-informed (stupid) position on regulation (ex: with Volvo announcing today it will no longer be making gas driven cars - just hybrid and electric- the rollback of gus guzzler regs. makes about as much sense as investing in buggy whips), together with his history of serial bankruptcy do not bode well for any "bumps" caused by this so-called "leader"
(BTW- a non sequitur here- but where are those tax returns?)
(BTW- a non sequitur here- but where are those tax returns?)
126
Wait! Weren't Scott Pruitt's deregulations in favour of filthy fields and streams supposed to contribute so mightily to economic growth? As Pelosi says - this administration is all about making America sick again, and nothing else.
318
None of this matters:
- Whatever the real numbers might be, Trump will call them fake news.
- And 35% of the population will believe him.
- Whatever the real numbers might be, Trump will call them fake news.
- And 35% of the population will believe him.
158
Eventually, the 35% of the population that believe him will be fake news.
3
This may be true now but let's see how he handles a recession or a market correction (i.e., crash). When you ride a wave into shore without drowning, that doesn't make you a good swimmer.
Trump's Chumps won't matter when independents weigh in. That 35% is sure to drop once the 8 year recovery gets washed out with the riptide.
Trump's Chumps won't matter when independents weigh in. That 35% is sure to drop once the 8 year recovery gets washed out with the riptide.
1
Markets are buoyed on confidence and that's in short supply with Trump. Erratic behavior, ludicrous, completely inaccurate Tweets do not inspire confidence, and the obvious "sundowning" we observed when Trump walked off air force one tells the tale. What we have is a congenital liar who has no clue how to handle the task in front of him and resorts back to his base instincts that served him with his real estate scams.
Sadly, republican Gerrymandering skills mean the midterms will not solve the problem and republican cowardice precludes the use of those constitutional processes we could normally use to remove Trump from office. This cancer will continue to matastasize w/o remedy but the real victim is our democracy and our planet.
Sadly, republican Gerrymandering skills mean the midterms will not solve the problem and republican cowardice precludes the use of those constitutional processes we could normally use to remove Trump from office. This cancer will continue to matastasize w/o remedy but the real victim is our democracy and our planet.
76
"Bump?" I'm more concerned that our Rights, Liberties and Democracy are getting a "hump" if you catch my drift.
149
What happened to Big'ly, you'll get tired of winning...all his hot air? The quality of life of the working class has gone downhill since Reagan, and no Republican is going to improve it if Obama was not able to do so, though congress fought him the whole way. If there is any growth, it will be for the 1%. Again. We need a revolution in thinking and doing in America. A massive change in the political system.
72
Truth is, presidents have very little long term influence on GDP growth rates. At best, they can push it up a little with stimulus bills and so on. The rest is mainly defined by demography and what the Federal Reserve does. Trump is mainly surfing on the recovery that followed the recession that Obama inherited. But for Trump and his followers, it does not matter that Trump cannot bring 4+% of growth. Despite having achieved very little, Trump will be able to boast about job creations and booming stockmarkets. The rest will be dismissed as fake news of course. That's more than enough for his supporters to feel vindicated, and for Trump to stay in power.
13
Methinks a crash is imminent as the market is way overvalued and a future GOP failure on tax reform will show how irrelevant reality show host and his enabling legislative branch is.
6
Trump is just living off of the remaining Obama recovery. Now let's watch him mess it all up like Republicans always do.
Which Democrat will have to clean it up in 2020?
Which Democrat will have to clean it up in 2020?
516
Jerry Brown
1
It's Obama's fault; he handed Trump a lousy economy that had created 16.5 million jobs.
3
If only...
We seem to be doing really well here in little Sweden even though we have nothing resembling a Trump to lead us. And, by the way, although the Times always tells me that my USA as "world leader in renewable energy" is beginning to slip the Times has never given me a single reason for believing that assertion.
Little Sweden is far ahead given the data I have at hand and note this: Volvo is breaking all-time sales records here and announced today that within two years every car sold will either be electric or hybrid. Since Volvo is the number one favorite of Swedish car buyers that means that Sweden will be again showing the USA what serious programs on renewable energy have to do.
The obvious fear is that with no bump, Trump will act unwisely on North Korea, creating a world in which global warming is only a minor concern.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Dual citizen US SE
Little Sweden is far ahead given the data I have at hand and note this: Volvo is breaking all-time sales records here and announced today that within two years every car sold will either be electric or hybrid. Since Volvo is the number one favorite of Swedish car buyers that means that Sweden will be again showing the USA what serious programs on renewable energy have to do.
The obvious fear is that with no bump, Trump will act unwisely on North Korea, creating a world in which global warming is only a minor concern.
Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Dual citizen US SE
163
Volvo is owned by Zhejiang Geely Holding Group Co., Ltd, a Chinese company. Maybe they should also be afforded some credit for Volvo's success as well, but then, I see you are not given to recognizing the accomplishments of others. That said, I am a fan of Sweden and kudos to all of your successes.
3
@ Charles Long Island - and what is the evidence that I am not given to recognizing the accomplishments of others?
In NYT comment land shorter is better. In the present case we can be sure that the design of the present and near-future volvos is the work of the people at Volvo, Torslanda, SE and perhaps other centers.
But you make an excellent point by noting that China is present just about everywhere, notably in Africa, for better or worse. Trump by contrast is drawing into his All America shell.
I admit I do not follow the financial world transactions that brought the Chinese company to Sweden but if they kept Volvo from going under then all praise for them.
Thanks for the reply, replies are better than clicks.
Larry
In NYT comment land shorter is better. In the present case we can be sure that the design of the present and near-future volvos is the work of the people at Volvo, Torslanda, SE and perhaps other centers.
But you make an excellent point by noting that China is present just about everywhere, notably in Africa, for better or worse. Trump by contrast is drawing into his All America shell.
I admit I do not follow the financial world transactions that brought the Chinese company to Sweden but if they kept Volvo from going under then all praise for them.
Thanks for the reply, replies are better than clicks.
Larry
5
Believe me Larry, I'm not a fan of Trump. More than half our population is holding their breath right now and doing the best we can otherwise. Cheers.
3
The Trump Bump was over last month. Anyone that is paying attention knows that the Market is unrealistically high and a poor reflection of the true long term state of our economic health.
105
I am no economist but why would Wall Street assume that Trump would create such inexplicable economic growth? It seems that Wall Street just confirmed its casino-mentality. Trump pulled us out of the Asian trade pact; shut down our participation in the climate change pact. He has been consistently inconsistent and just reconfirms to all of us any absence of intellectual heft. How could Wall Street come to the conclusion that this man would inspire a vibrant economy when he unnerves most of the world and most of the consumers in America?
547
Deregulation, in one word. If they get all he's promised, his billionaires on the cabinet will get even richer while infrastructure continues to age.
You don't have to be an economist to read GOP mantra.
You don't have to be an economist to read GOP mantra.
16
Wall Street likes Trump because he is a huckster just like them. Both sell sizzle, without the steak.
11
Joe, I like the "Trump-steak" metaphor.
3
Nobody knew that growing the economy would be so hard. I mean no one knew.
409