Be nice to the Russians it may soon be a large part of the inhabitable planet and a major clean water source as the tundra melts away. If global warming is not halted by the end of the century neither India or China will be inhabitable and draw that line around the glob the extreme north above the equator and the extreme south below will have to do as home.
Accepting the inevitable future, people must remain adaptable. For the land that will be taken out of cultivation, there is newly arable land up north. India has always gone its own way but at the expense of her own people. So many are here and countless others would resettle.
Only the United Nations can see the global problem and bend national boundaries. Spaceship Earth isn't going to stop changing.
Only the United Nations can see the global problem and bend national boundaries. Spaceship Earth isn't going to stop changing.
No doubt Trump's response to this will be "Where's India?"
If he figures that out, he'll suggest they all move north into the Himalayas.
If he figures that out, he'll suggest they all move north into the Himalayas.
1
Parts of India hit temperatures above 120 degrees approx 2 weeks ago. Bilaspur was hit hard & wondering what to do. Doesn't seem like a good situation. North's luxuries impact the South's suffering. The world community cannnor ignore the pollution to put air, seas, & land. Seems like rationally thinking people are few & far between in our current administration. People will respond despite US retreat from climate mitigating agreements.
2
This is truly frightening.
In his speech justifying withdrawal from the Paris Climate agreement, Donald Trump said, "Even if the Paris Agreement were implemented in full, with total compliance from all nations, it is estimated it would only produce a two-tenths of one degree -- think of that; this much -- Celsius reduction in global temperature by the year 2100. Tiny, tiny amount."
The death toll is rising, and the correlation is NOT a "tiny, tiny amount"!
What he fails to take into account is the halt in the progression of this warming. Our only hope is that the real leaders step up and do all they can to help save lives.
In his speech justifying withdrawal from the Paris Climate agreement, Donald Trump said, "Even if the Paris Agreement were implemented in full, with total compliance from all nations, it is estimated it would only produce a two-tenths of one degree -- think of that; this much -- Celsius reduction in global temperature by the year 2100. Tiny, tiny amount."
The death toll is rising, and the correlation is NOT a "tiny, tiny amount"!
What he fails to take into account is the halt in the progression of this warming. Our only hope is that the real leaders step up and do all they can to help save lives.
5
I often wonder what it will take to truly put the world on a war footing (so to speak) with regards to climate change. To date the collective reaction, relative to what we need to do, is little more than worried glance.
What cataclysmic event will truly awaken us to action? 100k heat-related deaths in one region in one month due to heat? A Class 5 hurricane rolling into New York?
By then the window for escaping global catastrophe will have all but closed.
What cataclysmic event will truly awaken us to action? 100k heat-related deaths in one region in one month due to heat? A Class 5 hurricane rolling into New York?
By then the window for escaping global catastrophe will have all but closed.
6
Unfortunately suffering in the middle- and lower- classes does not seem to count. Suffering in the developing world does not seem to count.
Action on climate change will not happen until it hits the wealthy at home.
Action on climate change will not happen until it hits the wealthy at home.
2
India's latest drought was one of the really thrilling stories of climate change in the last few years. The Ganges is one of the world's great rivers, and it's being fed by Himalayan glaciers. The glaciers are retreating further and further back over recent decades, and the low flow is resulting in low water level and a dirty river. It's a holy river that's traditionally used for a lot of purposes by the Indians, including bathing and disposal of bodies. An this is all leading to it becoming a tragically dirty river. It's a similarly impressing situation to that of the Amazon River in South America.
There was a lot more to the story than that during India's drought, though. A very large portion of the country was effected by the drought, and drinking water supplies were short everywhere. The government was trucking drinking water everywhere, a lot of farmers were desperate, and things were getting rough between people. The most amazing story was that the water supplies of Bombay / Mumbai got reduced to one month's worth. That's a very big city.
There have been a lot of very rough drought stories from around the world over the past few years, but amazingly in India, the story was about it effecting an amazingly big population.
If the effects of climate change are a problem for today, then you can find it in these various drought stories.
There was a lot more to the story than that during India's drought, though. A very large portion of the country was effected by the drought, and drinking water supplies were short everywhere. The government was trucking drinking water everywhere, a lot of farmers were desperate, and things were getting rough between people. The most amazing story was that the water supplies of Bombay / Mumbai got reduced to one month's worth. That's a very big city.
There have been a lot of very rough drought stories from around the world over the past few years, but amazingly in India, the story was about it effecting an amazingly big population.
If the effects of climate change are a problem for today, then you can find it in these various drought stories.
6
Not going to argue the science here other than to note it's weird seeing a linear regression done on a martingale. The apparently shocking number regarding increasing probability of mass heat-related deaths, though, is pretty misleading. In the article they're counting mass-deaths as >100 persons dying in a heat wave, yet in the 50 years between the endpoints of the study India's population has nearly tripled, so obviously a larger number of deaths would be expected. They should have normalized heat-deaths per capita and stated that increase. The given statistic (number of instances in which > 100 people die in an event) is useless in a time series where the baseline population is growing.
2
We must not rule out air-conditioning as a future mitigating measure during times of excessive heat. High latitude populations heat/cool their interiors routinely, using a large amount of energy to do so. Why should low latitude populations not also use energy for cooling?
We must not presume that there is no way to provide active air-conditioning to the poor. When the temperature is 104F or above, air-conditioning is not a 'luxury.' As the article shows, it becomes a matter of life or death.
We must not presume that there is no way to provide active air-conditioning to the poor. When the temperature is 104F or above, air-conditioning is not a 'luxury.' As the article shows, it becomes a matter of life or death.
From the article," The study’s authors used scientific modeling to show that with a 0.9 degree Fahrenheit (0.5 Celsius) rise in temperature, the probability of a heat wave with more than 100 deaths in India increased to 32 percent from 13 percent."
India's population was about 400 million in '60 and was 1.1 billion in 2010. While the study could have controlled for this huge increase of about 175%, the phrase 'scientific modeling' is quite ambiguous.
The fact that the study used an absolute number like 100 leaves me wondering about the veracity of the study.
India's population was about 400 million in '60 and was 1.1 billion in 2010. While the study could have controlled for this huge increase of about 175%, the phrase 'scientific modeling' is quite ambiguous.
The fact that the study used an absolute number like 100 leaves me wondering about the veracity of the study.
1
This is why the Pentagon considers climate change to be the largest global security threat in the coming decades. The exodus of refugees from Syria may seem trivial in the future, compared to mass migrations from heat and drought affected areas.
Why the argument in Washington is not being framed from this perspective is a mystery.
Why the argument in Washington is not being framed from this perspective is a mystery.
5
Be nice to the Russians it may soon be a large part of the inhabitable planet and a major clean water source as the tundra melts away. If global warming is not halted by the end of the century with a projected 4 degree rise in temperature neither India or China will be inhabitable and draw that line around the glob the extreme north above the equator and the extreme south below will have to do as home to those that survive.
1
We have seen the risks of excessive heat in the developed world - recent heat waves raised mortality rates (particularly among the elderly) in Chicago, parts of Russia, France, and other countries. Worse is coming. As heat waves increase in strength and frequency power grids will be at risk of interruption further endangering at-risk populations. Meanwhile politicians and media in the pocket of fossil fuel interests continue to deny, obstruct, and delay progress on reducing CO2 emissions further endangering everyone - developed and developing world alike. How long will this profoundly immoral behavior of the likes of the Koch brothers, Senator Inhofe, and Fox News continue?
31
Their behavior, unfortunately, is unlikely to change. Many Americans, like myself, live in air conditioned shelters while the poor in this and undeveloped countries suffer. There is very little environmental justice.
A major part of the problem is an overpopulated planet. Possibly climate change will help to at least partially correct the problem, but not in my lifetime.
A major part of the problem is an overpopulated planet. Possibly climate change will help to at least partially correct the problem, but not in my lifetime.
1
It will continue until they die off I am afraid. These people entrenched in the past and determined to fight to the death any changes to that past; they are the true Entitled Generation. By the time they die off and thier corporations run out of momentum, it will be too late to stop the tipping point by then. One of the last evil empires studied by children before the earth burns will be called Koch, Oil, Coal and Trump.
1
This is heart-breaking. I'm from India. The costs of increasing temperatures are far more than just heat-caused deaths. Increased temperatures are usually accompanied by an increased uptick in tropical diseases, in dysentery and dehydration, in lowered productivity, and premature deaths in older people who are very susceptible to heat. Moreover, there is a significant loss in productivity since people can't do outdoor work in the heat. Especially for poor farmers, this makes an enormous difference and can mean they don't have food on the plate (not "food on the table", since they're usually too poor to afford tables).
On top of this is crop failure due to heat waves. Also, extreme weather events that cause thousands of deaths, destroy people's crops, and bring cities with tens of millions of people to an absolute standstill.
On top of this is crop failure due to heat waves. Also, extreme weather events that cause thousands of deaths, destroy people's crops, and bring cities with tens of millions of people to an absolute standstill.
29
If you look at it objectively, this is good news. This is how climate change can correct itself. The engine driving climate change is basically overpopulation, as a larger population burns more fossil fuels and damages the environment more in a variety of ways.
So as the temperature rises, more humans will be slain by the effects, from heat deaths, extreme storms, rising water levels, dehydration of lands near deserts, and so on. The more humans that are eliminated, the less impact humanity has on the planet, and at some point things should be brought back into equilibrium.
The tragic thing about climate change is all the species that will go extinct because of it. It is not tragic that more humans will die, it is necessary.
So as the temperature rises, more humans will be slain by the effects, from heat deaths, extreme storms, rising water levels, dehydration of lands near deserts, and so on. The more humans that are eliminated, the less impact humanity has on the planet, and at some point things should be brought back into equilibrium.
The tragic thing about climate change is all the species that will go extinct because of it. It is not tragic that more humans will die, it is necessary.
8
Is it necessary that you die? That your kids die? What about your grandkids? Cousins? Friends? Who?
7
Dan, everyone knows that the humane way humans reduce population growth is to improve standard of living above mere subsistence level, to educate women and to provide access to birth control.
Also, a bit of a logic error when you say "a larger population burns more fossil fuels". To properly finish that, you should say "a larger population burns more fossil fuels when fossil fuels are the primary source of energy".
That short period of human history is coming to an end over the next century or less, and this article is another reason why we should change it as quickly as we can.
Also, a bit of a logic error when you say "a larger population burns more fossil fuels". To properly finish that, you should say "a larger population burns more fossil fuels when fossil fuels are the primary source of energy".
That short period of human history is coming to an end over the next century or less, and this article is another reason why we should change it as quickly as we can.
4
I thought "the engine driving climate change" was predominantly the USA for a hundred years but now joined by others predominant such as China. Was the USA afflicted by over-population in that one-hundred year period? Perhaps over-population is not the singularly driving factor in climate change and what's needed is a change in climate driving the politics of environmental policies.
3
So not that anyone's reading about this very real thing yet (unlike Trump's bluster, which usually amounts to nothing), but the reason the deaths from heat will get far worse, in India and many other places, like Arizona, is because it's not sensational.
Nobody cares about this news and so it will cause incalculable death and suffering, because nobody is doing anything about it. So don't complain when it starts to affect y'all, rather than destitute Indians.