The Census and Right-Wing Hysteria

May 11, 2017 · 271 comments
Follanger (Pennsylvania)
It's not whether Hispanics or Asians or those of mixed heritage like Obama are half whites, quarter whites, eight whites, or ersatz whites. It's first whether they are likely to move to the green hills of, say, West Virginia and do some "intermarrying" and, second, whether those whites of anglo stock ensconced in the rural enclaves of similar states are planning a move to mixed race, often urban locales to find darker skinned partners.

I see no evidence of this and neither does the author provide any. Sure, there is some movement of Hispanics to whiter suburbs but those occur primarily in greater metropolitan areas. Professor Gans is too optimistic if not plainly in error.

It will take some greater incentive for Americans to extricate themselves from the Big Sort.
cherrylog754 (Atlanta, GA)
In 2009 the NY Times wrote an article “In Atlanta, String of Black Mayors May Be Broken”. Well it didn’t happen. And likely never will, at least in my lifetime as an Atlanta resident.

The author ended with Mistake No. 5. I’ll add Mistake No 6. If the right-wingers don’t see Immigrants, Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and other non-whites as equals and “All American”, they in fact will become a minority. Not as a minority of whites but a minority in their views of equality. We're all equal in this country. Our laws say as much.
Zejee (Bronx)
We have to stop categorizing people by "race." As posters have pointed out, when are Hispanics "white" and when are they "Hispanic"? Years ago Italians and Irish were considered another "race," as were Jews.
LF (SwanHill)
American history in a nutshell: Anyone can be white, as long as somebody else is black.
R C (Montclair, NJ)
You've got the be kidding -- the sociologist studying the changing dominance of "whites" is named "Alba."
Rick Gage (<br/>)
I hate to break it to all those white people (of which, I am one) but evolution doesn't care what your skin color is. If you are attractive, others will wish to mate with you. You can write about the dangers, the indignities and the upsetting of the "natural order" all you want. People are still going to want to sleep with Jennifer Lopez and Barack Obama. So, you've lost. Give up. You're just annoying the rest of us, who wish those people would sleep with us.
Phyllis S (NY, NY)
Or, we could all just grow up and put "human" in the "race" field -- or leave it blank.
Lawrence Lundgren (Linköping, Sweden)
There is an important subject that no one at the Times – including Professor Gans and Race/Related- will touch but that is consistently touched upon by a small fraction of commenters.

The subject is “race”. Yes the word “race” appears 100s of times week after week but critical analysis of the American concept and use of “race” is totally lacking in the Times, notably at Race/Related the Newsletter supposedly devoted to that subject.

Here are the commenters thus far who ask why the US Census Bureau still assign us to “races”:

John Brown Idaho 21
Jeff Atlanta 14
Peter NYC 25
Puffin Seattle 12
Casual Observer Los Angeles CA
GRH New England 7
”Me” LL comment submitted 12:00 CET 14 May

I have had here in comment land 100s of comments asking that question in many different ways. I have written over and over again asking Race/Related to give us a first article by a geneticist or sociologist familiar with appropriate areas of genome research.

R/R does not answer and gives us nothing.

Why the total avoidance of such an important subject? My first comment names two leading scholars that R/R could invite. To those names I add blackmamba, a Times commenter who speaks often for such as the 7 I point to above.

Time to begin.

Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Dual citizen US SE
John (Washington)
Collecting data on race is part of the attempt to understand where race appears to make a difference in parts of the country. Combined with income data we can estimate if barriers exist due to race and if any progress has been made on the problem. Singling out one significant prediction by the Census Bureau as a cause that fuels right-wing hysteria and as a result one that should be avoided seems to be a bit over the top, not unlike a 'trigger warning' for the country.

The irony is that segregation is decreasing in the West and South more quickly than in the Midwest and Northeast, and that the ten most segregated cities are in the Rust Belt. The Rust Belt was a Democratic stronghold since Reagan, so one of the most obvious examples of racism in the US isn't one produced by 'right-wing hysteria', as the area went for Obama twice. Residential segregation by income is increasing, which brings class into the picture, but in a number of areas, NYC being one, blacks are often not members of those neighborhoods.

An honest look at the issue reveals that it isn't a 'right-wing hysteria' problem, instead it is a larger one involving race and class, and one that both the right and the left have to acknowledge cuts across ideological and party lines.
Occupy Government (Oakland)
The reason we group Asians and Indians and Polynesians into a group is that in our modern history, we excluded them all in one law or another.

The Asian/Pacific Islander designation was a legal term -- reparation for all those regional peoples against whom we discriminated.

Much of our Census classification is based on legal categories. We should update all that.
Michjas (Phoenix)
Most countries have a popular identity based on race. In Scandinavia, the numbers are so skewed, there is little room for debate. The US is more complicated. We started with a Native American majority that was soon overwhelmed by WASP's. The WASP's brought black slaves. And then, white Catholics immigrated in large numbers. Finally, Hispanics and Asians have made their appearance in large numbers.

Many still view the US identity as the WASP and the Catholic populations. After all, they have been in the majority for the longest period of our history. The number of white Christians gives them a strong claim on our core identity. Bit when we become a majority minority, that will be a major change. The core character of the nation for the past 200 years will give way to the predominance of the melting point. The US will lack a core ethnic identity and will become an amalgamation of all its various populations. We will lose a predominant identity and, instead, become the sum of our parts. No group will have a claim of precedence and there will not be a predominant uniting identity. There is no doubt that this constitutes a major change. It may be for the better. It may be for the worse. But it is both new and important, and we should not hesitate to discuss its effects.
mike (nola)
Professor Gans first "factoid" is wrong and sets the tone for the rest.

The reality is that the census answers are self-directed. The options on race combinations are a result of public input and outcry.

The reality is, from the shear numbers, those people who self-identify as a member of a minority race on the census, are that what we call 'minorities' will collectively be a majority at some point in the future.

that has NOTHING to do with predicting political outcomes or identification based on what others perceive a specific persons ethnicity is.

could he be right that more mixed race people will start identifying as white? sure. could he be right that those who 'Look' white despite ancestry will sometime be called white? sure.

Neither have squat to do with the numbers in the census responses today and the predictions he makes are the highest form of speculation possible.
paul (bklyn ny)
While the majority of your piece may be technically correct, it really doesn't matter to the conservative whites who helped elect Trump.

90% of them are not bigots or worse. They don't see themselves as you see them. They look at themselves as an endangered soon to be minority just like Italians, Chinese, Blacks, Latinos etc. etc. saw themselves throughout our history.

Cultural issues like gay rights, abortion, death penalty etc. etc. certainly come into play but the big issue with them are good paying blue collar jobs being farmed out to slave labor countries.

Trump demagogued it and Hillary ignored/gave lip service to or even opposed doing anything about it, instead running a identity obsessed campaign so badly that she lost 53% of the white female vote to a bigoted, admitted sexual predator, ego maniac demagogue.
Bill McGrath (Peregrinator at Large)
I'm a 68 year-old white male. I don't get these anxieties at all. Why should the tint of someone's skin or someone's gender instill fear in me? Don't we all really want the same things? I could understand it if blacks and Latinos ate white people for dinner, but they don't. They get up in the morning, shower, eat breakfast and go to work - just like I do. If the economy thrives, we all do. If the planet gets too hot, we all suffer. Our goals just aren't that different. When I see a successful person, of any description, I feel good about it. That's one more person contributing to the common good. We should celebrate diversity and progress, not fear it.
greg (savannah, ga)
The most illuminating thing about this article is how it exposes the fallacy of race as used in the census and most popular discussions of race. White is not a race but a cultural construct otherwise why would light skinned blonds from South America not be considered white. Though everyone who meets me would say I'm a white southerner I always list other on the census because I have no idea of my ancestry beyond a few generations. The whole idea of race identification on the census smacks of social engineering.
Amanda (New York)
The problem is not at the census. The problem is with the creation of affirmative action/preferences for groups other than blacks and American indians/native tribes. When affirmative action was extended to "Hispanics", a new category of people in many cases physically indistinguishable from the white population was carved out for preferences based on a confusion of discrimination with the relative poverty that comes from recent immigration. No sensible person, being part "Hispanic", is going to give up that status, with the scholarships and government solicitude that go with it, to be a mere white person. Intermarriage will make more people look "white", but it will reduce the politically "white" share of the population.
Lamaan Whyte (Darwin, Australia)
Back in the 1980's, as a social psychology student at an Australian university. I used to meet with a group of my fellow students to discuss the latest research in the academic psychology journals. One day, somebody chanced upon a research paper that reported that, when Americans met somebody first time, the very first thing that they noticed, before anything else, was the other person's 'race' - the colour of their skin. "What!" everybody cried. "Even ahead of sex, height, attractive appearance?" Nobody could believe it. We didn't know about fake news in those days, so we just decided that it was weird.
Ken R (Ocala FL)
Our obsession with race and diversity is absurd. We count people in different columns so we can award or withhold benefits. The census should count the number of people regardless of race. As long as we make it an issue it will be an issue for better or worse.
Charles Gonzalez (NY)
Being white in this country has always been a comparative advantage and it will continue to be so for many years to come. No matter your zip code, if you are white and have a modicum of education and intelligence there is no reason not to be successful, however you define it. Being different has always been a challenge in this country, whether Irish, Eastern European or Italian. That said, there is no doubt that this country is becoming browner, darker, less white and that change will continue to accelerate. America will continue to look a lot more like America Ferrrera than Amy Schumer. That's a good thing for any number of reasons. I have been telling my "white" business friends and colleagues for over 20 years that the demographic wave is irreversible even though they feared or despised its reality. The truth is that there is no use, as the author does, of splitting hairs about the percentages. The reality on the ground that Americans everywhere face is that "their" country is changing. I suspect that similar feelings of fear and anger tore the cultural and economic assumptions of native born Americans in 1850, 1890 and 1920. Tough. Demographic change along with Hamiltonian economics made this country great.
Burroughs (Western Lands)
Sociology, like cultural anthropology, has been denying the evolutionary foundation of human nature for over a hundred years. When a great scientist, E.O. Wilson, wrote a book 30 years ago called *Sociobiology* he was roundly assaulted by people who believe that human nature is whatever we want it to be. This column is all about the perception of race. If you send in a DNA sample to Ancestry.com you'll find out what your genetic background really is, not what you or others think or feel that it is. But don't do it if you don't like surprises.
Nathaniel Brown (Edmonds, Wa)
There is yet another mistake that has received little attention: the dropping of questions related to sexual orientation. Republicans would far rather keep their heads buried in the sand than acknowledge that many thousands of Americans are part of a same-sex family, that thousands of kids are being raised by same-sex couples, and that we are being married in our many thousands. Of course, as long as the census doesn't include us, Republicans can comfort themselves by pretending we don't exist, aren't part of America, and do not have our own issues to confront just like every other group.
Zachary Lew (California)
It's become quite clear to me that racism is ultimately a lot less about skin color, and more about cultural differences. People may automatically associate a skin color with a culture they are bigoted towards, but the color itself is not usually the root of the racism. This is why white people generally don't have problems being friends with black people that "act white", and also why they can feel that they aren't racist -- they don't like their "culture", not their "race".
No fault (NYC)
MISTAKE PERIOD:
In the US we are all created equal under God. Thus the census counting brown, white, yellow, black and any variant is a racist practice, a practice that is looking to favor a color group over another. There is a huge danger in having this data in the hands of POLS. POLS are using this data to give one group or another singular benefits that reciprocity is votes for that POL. Do not trust POLS they have their own agendas and well being which rarely include who they manipulate. Those in media who report individuals as "black" or "white" are reporting in discriminatory ways singling out people by color, gender or race. The day that we end singling out people in this manner we will have a much healthier viewpoint of each other. We all bleed RED so must begin on the same level of humanity and spirit - End racist descriptions and counting to build unity and trust in all our communities.
brien brown (dragon)
This was an interesting article, but I do have to point out that Benjamin Franklin could not have reacted negatively to the first German immigrants coming to America. They came before he was born.
rheffner3 (Italy)
What I can't figure out is why we continue to support segregation policies by breaking down the population by race and ethnicity! What is the point? It just reinforces differences when we should be reinforcing our similarities, i.e., being Americans. Equal in every way. Count the population. That's it.
ck (<br/>)
Maybe we will all join the Human race. I identify on the census as Other--Human.
Lawrence Lundgren (<br/>)
Dear Professor Gans, your review of 5 mistakes is of interest to me for quite different reasons than they are to you.

In my view, strongly influenced by the work of Dorothy Roberts, Kenneth Prewitt, and a genetics professor emeritus who shall remain anonymous today, your 5-mistake list simply shows the absurdity of the USCB system. Prewitt in Ch. 11 of "What Is Your Race?" outlines a future where we no longer are assigned to "races" or ill defined ethnicities. Roberts in "Fatal Invention...", her TED talk, and a paper in Science makes clear that American medical researchers should end their commitment to race-based research. And the genetics professor, whom I knew when "hen" (Swedish for he/she) was an undergraduate at the University of Rochester created an entire course examining American practice in the light of genome research.

But you and without question most Times writers and commenters seem to be firmly committed to preservation of a system created by racists. You do make clear that the USCB should abandon the majority-minority idea. Why not go the rest of the way?

Your answer?

Only-NeverInSweden.blogspot.com
Dual citizen US SE
Dan Green (Palm Beach)
Common sense tells us two circumstances. If we elect to continue to see immigration as beneficia,l new immigrants unlike our past experience will no longer come from Europe. Their social security and universal healthcare is far better than ours, as it is not debated. Our immigration will be Asian and from predominately Muslim countries , (those allowed in as is the current debate). Yes the kids of these immigrants of color often inter-marry but that takes a generation or two. This all happened before only it was Germans marrying Irish, or a Pole marrying and Italian. As long as African Americans remain sequestered in ghetto's they will not be inter marrying.
Philly (Expat)
If the US will soon become a minority-majority country, will whites soon thereafter become 'extinct'? This is not only happening in the US, but all Western countries, Canada, Australia and NZ & also Europe, the indigenous home of whites. African and Asian countries are not at all becoming minority-majority; Non-Western countries are projected to remain as they are, majority Asian or African, but not so the Western countries.

I do not see how it is a good thing that one of the 3 races of man is on a trajectory to be wiped out. Ecologists and environmentalists justifiably advocate to prevent extinction and endangerment in the animal kingdom, but these same liberal-leaning people seem to be none too happy to see the demise and eventual elimination or significant 'dilution' of whites.

If this were happening to one of the other 2 races of the world, the liberals would be justifiably screaming bloody murder and would be bending over backwards to try their utmost to prevent it.

The article does not say, but the main cause is population explosion in Africa and the ME and mass migration from these and other and even all regions to the West. It would seem understandable for Western governments to control the migration to the West, but the open borders advocates will do their utmost to prevent that.
George McKinney (Pace, FL)
Stop associating "victim" with any and all races, religions, et al, and the score-keeping won't matter.
Of course this won't happen because one of our two major political parties entire election strategy is based on creating victims to whom they promise compensation.
Doug Mc (Chesapeake, VA)
There is a reason the term "octaroon" has largely disappeared. Initially, it was used in the antebellum South to identify those who should be marginalized as the social structures of the time were under threat. Other terms like "miscegenation" were also brought forth to support structural racism. Against this linguistic effort at division of people is the countervailing success of mixed race individuals including most recently or last President, Barack Obama.

We are not yet a post-racial society--race is always trotted out as a cudgel when fears rise. Think Nazi Germany or Rwanda if you need examples. And perhaps Mr. Trump's American whose hats should probably read: "Make America White Again".
Philly (Expat)
More than a few commenters have stated that race does not exist, that it is a social construct and not a biological (DNA) one. So, it is the case that not only some conservatives are anti-science (i.e. global climate change deniers), some liberals are anti-science, too!!
Samuel (U.S.A.)
Frankly, I was looking forward to the end of white majority; and I'm a Mayflower descendant...as white as white can be. This country needs to loosen up and look past skin color to the soul beneath.
RichD (Grand Rapids, Michigan)
You can see the reality of a predominantly white America every day when you walk around the suburban malls and even on the steeets of many large cities. White people are the overwhelming majority now, and will remain so indefinitely. The evidence is everywhere before our eyes, and while many of the points made on the article are perfectly valid, people who dream of a non-white America, as if "white" is itself somehow "bad", and "non-white" is somehow better, are living in a self-delusional, if not actually hateful, fantasy.

A better course for all of us would be to simply learn how to get along with one another, regardless of our physical differences. That would be the American way, IMO.
Chris (La Jolla)
I am Asian by birth. I really don't want to be lumped in with some of the other races, as I feel i have little in common with them. Unless, of course, if I can get something from the government as part of a "race quota" or education admission or tax break or handout, or any of the tax money given so generously to these groups.
Jerome Krase (Brooklyn, New York)
As a sociologist with beautifully dark Sicilian (African) and Slavic (Asian) roots, I celebrate the De-Whitening of America. Although I shudder to think of how Herb Gans' wise wisdom will be played on FoxNews.
Geoffrey Thornton (Washington DC)
Another form of self induced paranoia to justify discrimination. Build a negative and false narrative around a group of people, use that narrative to justify mistreatment, condemn the victim for pointing out the false narrative by saying "stop playing the race card"

..Rinse, repeat.
Warren Stern (Plymouth, MA)
Due to the pervasive mis-understanding by the New York Times, the Census Bureau and most Americans of the difference between ethnicity (such as Latino) vs race, most articles on the topic of "majority white" or political affiliations associated with race, fail to recognize that being of Mexican origin or being
Latino is NOT a racial category. There is zero biologic basis for categorizing Mexicans as a race, just as there is zero biologic basis for historic errors of considering Irish or Jews as being a race. Persons from Latin America have substantial racial diversity based mainly on white, black, Indian or mixed racial heritage. Thus, the "majority white" computations are fatally flawed mainly due to the mis-categorization of all Mexicans or Latinos as non-white, and for the additional reasons cited in the article.
Jim Linnane (Bar Harbor)
It is great to see that Professor Gans is still around and that the New York Times is publishing him. Identity politics is killing this country just as they did in the antebellum era. If we don't stop judging people according to ascriptive criteria we will repeat that sad history.
David Martin (Vero Beach, Fla.)
My recollection is that when I was young, Italians, especially people from southern Italy, were not quite considered "white" by some of my relatives, who seemed to fully accept that my mother, whose parents were Slovak, was "white." My grandparents had found New York more welcoming than Vienna.
Jose Smith (Texas)
I think most white Hispanics are White- in terms of out of wedlock births, home ownership and college education. Simply including white Hispanics in the Majority column- will change back to a white majority nation for many years to come.
Do people consider Al Gore to be white or Hispanic? Most people will answer that he is white, and are surprised that he is a "White Hispanic".
The point about mixed race people slowly calling themselves white is well taken- but there is simply no need to analyze the issue- remove the fiction of white Hispanics as being part of a non-existent "Hispanic" group- and you have a white majority nation.

Cheers
Mandrake (New York)
I would guess college admissions offices see very few mixed race applicants calling themselves white.
MTA (Tokyo)
Some years ago, there were predictions among some researchers on the national make up that some ethnic groups were likely to "disappear" due to high incidents of "out marriage." For instance, Japanese-Americans were predicted to disappear by the end of 21st century.
Lewis Ulrich (Hartford, CT)
I believe that most white Republicans understand that they will continue to hold power, and that other "race-mixed groups" will identify themselves as white, in 50 years. However, we need to remember that, as you pointed out, the idea of racial purity is still present, and it's uncertain to assure that it'll just go away as the number of non-pure whites begins to rise.
[email protected] (Los Angeles)
I don't want to belong to a group with such low standards that it would accept me as a member.
Bruce Higgins (San Diego)
"I refuse to join any club that would have me as a member." - Groucho Marx
Babel (new Jersey)
Couple of points:

1. Our former President is the product of a mix race marriage and yet considers himself black.

2. Trump's drive to deport illegals, ban Muslim entry into this country, and his fixation with building a wall should reduce the non white population in this country.

3. Attorney General Sessions new instructions to go for maximum sentences on all crimes should dramatically increase the incarceration of our non white population.

4. The Republicans Party seemingly endless drive to intimidate and restrict non white voters from the polls should ensure that whites will be given a tremendous advantage at the ballot box.
matthewobrien (Milpitas, CA)
Excellent article!
Phyliss Dalmatian (Wichita, Kansas)
Race means nothing, when you're rich. Otherwise, even the poorest folks must have Someone to look down on, and hate. Right, GOP???
sdavidc9 (Cornwall)
In the Protestant South, any black blood at all made people black. In the Catholic South of New Orleans, many shades were recognized in a much more complex situation where white fathers were expected to acknowledge and aid their non-white offspring informally though not officially or legally.

The idea that Swedes or Germans are darker by skin than Irish or Scots is absurd, and shows how dishonest the thinking about and perception of race is. Race and skin color are used as proxies for other things. The idea that folks from the land of Kant, Mozart, and Goethe are culturally inferior to folks from the land of Hume, Locke, Pope, or Swift is absurd.

As the article points out, grouping by race and ethnicity is used to supplant and prevent grouping by class, a much more meaningful classification or awareness that has never gotten a firm foothold here because race has been used, often deliberately, to smother it. Perhaps as more and more of us look like Tiger Woods we will manage to address the largely class-based problem of the growing gulf between Silicon Valley and the Rust Belt, the coasts and flyover country.
Kenji Matsuoka (San Francisco)
Swedes do tan much better than Celts, though. Benjamin Franklin would have been looking at tanned working people when he observed that Swedes were darker.
William Case (Texas)
According to the author, “the census cannot say this, but whites should fear instead that many of them are increasingly suffering some of the same economic and political pains as nonwhites. But the censuses show there has always been more non-Hispanic whites below the poverty line than blacks or Hispanics.

African Americans are disproportionately poor, but in raw numbers there are far more poor white Americans than poor black Americans. According to the Census Bureau, there are 28.6 million whites living below poverty level compared to 10 million blacks.

Hispanics are disproportionately poor, but there are far poor more non-Hispanic whites than poor Hispanics. According to the Census Bureau, there are 17.8 million non-Hispanic whites living below poverty level compared to 12.1 million Hispanics.

https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2016/demo...
Dick M (Kyle TX)
So it's all the perception of the current white majority on who they will accept as part of their group. I'm sure the author is using "whitening" as a metaphor but it may contain more truth than intended. By considering the lumped African-Americans, Latinos and Asian-Americans as a non-white majority, one can only see that it is a powerless majority. A majority should be expected to control at least some aspects of its place in society, shouldn't it? This isn't happening though. The fact that whites will eventually deign to accept members of the non-white majority and consider them worthy of that acceptance truly seems based on economic accomplishments above all else. The white power establishment seems to represent more of a class distinction than anything else. The control of the power in this country isn't based on color of skin or DNA markings of ancestry but on economic status. Those with the resources and large investment portfolios are welcomed to be treated as whites, i.e., to exercise control, all others regardless of skin color need not apply.
As a final thought, notice that the Census director resigned due to his concern over the lack of funding proposed for the next national census. One wonders if the results are already predetermined by the administration so that gerrymandering can continue?
Renaissance Man (Bob Kruszyna ) (Randolph, NH 03593)
Yes, it's really all about class, not race.
Steve Bruns (Summerland)
"... a theory built on questionable assumptions should never be the basis for new theories."
- Stephen Smith
The concept of race is purely a social construct, it has no basis in biology. But it seems that doesn't matter, what with it being a post fact world and all.
Doug McDonald (Champaign, Illinois)
That is absolutely false. I have examined the DNA profiles of over 5000 people.
From published data ("HGDP" will do) its easy to construct a 3D plot
on which "races" are absolutely clear: they are the "endpoints" of tracks tracing human migrations over the last few thousand years. Its a pity I can't attach it as an html file. Trying to say race if not scientific depends simply on using "humanities" arguments that depend on redefining words to mean what you want them to mean politically. Science backs up the "usual" definition
of race based on appearance.

If somebody at the NYT will provide me an email, I can send the small file.
Progressive Resistor (A College Town)
For people like me who have long thought that white America is problematic, to say the least, these are troubling demographic trends. I and many others were counting on a minority-majority future.

But if electoral politics and our own demographics (a tendency to cluster in cities, and a tendency to not form stable two-parent families that result in the kind of privilege that creates voting citizens) continues apace, this minority-majorty ideal will recede farther into the future. And as it does, so will our hopes for open borders.

Perhaps we should be looking elsewhere for a solution, like Silicon Valley. This may sound crazy, but maybe the answer is to create a race of woke, progressive robots. While they theoretically wouldn't be able to vote, they could organize, protest, and work in the public and non-profit sectors without needing wages or even lunch breaks. Plus, in a structurally racist society that imprisons millions of black men, pulling them away from their families, perhaps these robots could fill in as surrogate fathers and providers.

Ultimately, we need to think outside of the box. The future is not as solid as it once seemed, and the electoral outcome of 2016 should spur us to new thinking.
JustJeff (Maryland)
In the end, all that matters is how people are treated. If you treat others well, you in turn should be treated well. If the current majority fears maltreatment by the current minority, maybe that should indicate they should have behaved better towards that current minority in the past.
G. H. (East Texas)
Your last line is why this country is split. The prior administration rubbed the majority of citizens faces in it. The current administration relishes to be back into some unknown part of it. But until we can, as a whole or on some part of it as a starting point, I fear we are doomed to repeat it. The past needs to stay in the past. I say this as a southern Conservative Christian who voted for more of my values than against them since both candidates left so much more to desire.
jljarvis (Burlington, VT)
The prior administration did no such thing.
Harvey Wachtel (Kew Gardens)
I'll go with the last suggestion. The obnoxious phrase "majority-minority" implies that nonwhites, but not whites, will always be "minorities", even when there are more of them.

If we could substitute "no-majority" as a description of where America is heading we could take a long step toward clarifying this situation.
DrKick (Honiara, Solomon Islands)
"After all, states like California and Texas are already majority-minority..."
Once again, mainstream analysts overlook Hawaii. The 50th state to enter the Union, but the 39th or 40th largest state by population. It has been majority minority for a long time. ... a long time...
G. H. (East Texas)
Isn't that the island somewhere out in the Pacific? Just kidding but couldn't refuse after the AG's reference was attacked recently. My wife also hails from an island, Guam.
DR_Myers (Los Angeles)
Don't forget the convenience for the data programmers! Among the most powerful factors supporting the purity or exclusive definition of white, as opposed to an inclusive blending, is that this definition is easiest for computer programmers to tabulate. Shame that it also lines up with the interests of exclusionary racists.
HBD Guy (USA)
Since 1969, the government and the culture hand out affirmative action money and prizes to people who claim to be Diverse, so self-interested persons of mixed descent tend to push hard on claims to the most rewarded identities.
William Case (Texas)
Hispanics can be of any race or any mixture of races. Actress Cameron Diaz is Hispanic. As of 2010, 50.5 million or 16.3% of Americans identified as Hispanic or Latino. Of those, 26.7 million, or 53%, also identified as white. Hispanics account for most of the nation’s population growth. This is why the white population is growing, not shrinking. However, it seems unlikely that we will still distinguish Hispanics from non-Hispanics by mid-century. Native-born Hispanics now outnumber foreign born Hispanics. By mid-century, they will outnumber foreign-born Hispanics by an overwhelming margins. Intermarriage between white Hispanics and non-Hispanics whites is becoming as much the rule as the exception in our most populous states—California and Texas. Actress Cameron Diaz is Hispanic.
Donna Gray (Louisa, Va)
Isn't it time the Census Bureau end it racial categorization of America? Because that is already the reality in at least the central Virginia part of the south! Visit public kindergartens and view the wonderful mosaic President Obama spoke of! Beautiful children of various hues all playing together! Stats show upper income types still sticking to their own kind as far as procreation, but everyone else is apparently very happy to mix it up!
William Case (Texas)
According to the U.S. Census Bureau’ 2014-2060 projection, the United States was 77.5 white in 2014. The bureau projects that whites will make up only 68.7 percent of the population in 2060, if immigration from Asia picks up as expected. Hispanics can be of any race. The Census Bureau project that Hispanics will make up 28.6 percent of the population in 2060 while 71.4 percent of the population will be non-Hispanic.

Source: Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014 to 2060. Table 2.Population by Race and Hispanic Origin
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo...
Winthrop Staples (Newbury Park, CA)
It has been the mass media led by the "liberal" NY Times & the academic left that has shouted out this prediction that the USA would be a none white majority nation in a few decades - declaring what a wonderful thing this would be, how it would solve all America's problems by making this an infinitely tolerant patchwork quilt rainbow Utopia. Well ... despite the reality that the nations of origin of most immigrants in recent decades have the most inherently racist, religiously-ethnically intolerant, misogamist and violent cultures on earth. But this inanity makes sense, because math and logic have never been the strong suit of our corporate and leftist "Cosmopolitan" globalists and "dreamers" who brought us the 2008 crash, can't do a travel ban when a pandemic like Ebola emerges, think that the earth can support 15 billion people because the "human imagination is infinite" (Laurence Summers). Now of course once the media had saturated the nation with this race baiting prediction (no one cares one way or another about) they could then manufacture their own news using the presence of their largely created awareness of this prediction to accuse anyone that disagrees with them on a policy issue of being in a white racist hysteria of rage. Again, because of their mass saturation of the national consciousness with this none news. Reminds one of the propaganda conspiracy of the Israeli who sent 100's of threats to Jewish organizations while under Israeli government surveillance.
Cheryl (Yorktown)
The Census Bureau collects information on a grand scale, which it makes available to researchers and the rest of us. It probably should not have released its projections of white/non-white population changes without extensive explanation and cautions.

Most newspeople - and some politicians - have finally gotten it through their heads that "Hispanic" is as meaningless as category as white when it comes to understanding what makes some groups into voting blocs. Some Asian Americans were well-educated Brahmins ( Dinesh D'souza comes to mind); they certainly have nothing in common with a Mexican who starts out with only his physical labor to offer.

So perhaps the only story is - all of this data requires sorting and analysis, with a critical eye.

The Census Bureau is reviewing what exactly to ask in the 2020 census: what changes would provide information that might help guide the US into the future - as well as to explain the changes in the ensuing 10 years? And should it handle the collection and sorting, but leave any predictions to other entities?
William Case (Texas)
According to the Census Bureau, the adjectives Hispanic or Latino "refers to a person of Cuban, Mexican, Puerto Rican, South or Central American, or other Spanish culture or origin regardless of race." The issue is why Hispanic Americans should be treated differently than other U.S. ethnic group such as German Americans, Irish Americans, Italian Americans, Japanese Americans, Chinese Americans, Arabic Americans, Jewish Americans, etc. When you ask, a common answer is that some cafes and restaurants in border states once refused service to Mexican Americans. But Irish Americans and Italian Americans once facedsimilar prejudice.
mark (berkeley)
So basically, we need Leftists mandarins to carefully wrap the message in a way that won't startle the ruminating herd.

because racial holy war.

Meh. We'll probably get that anyway.
Scott Fuller (USA)
Automation is rendering mass immigration obsolete. Our country doesn't need it.
Jack Fids (Tucson AZ)
Over time, the people of this planet will reach near homogenization in terms of race, in other words we are racing to become ONE race, Earthling Humans. Primitive Tribalism sucks time & money from us & will be seen as a waste of both.
The planet has been ruled by tribalism, strength, wars, money, politics & force, now the information age is upon us & the paramount goal of ALL people will be to gain & assimilate the most amount of knowledge as is possible, it's the only way to gain an advantage of any worth or meaning.
The sooner the masses realize & accept this fact the sooner & better we'll all be!
Bayou Houma (Houma, Louisiana)
Threaten the interests of a randomly associated class of people and you get pushback from members of the class who never thought of themselves as associated, nor in conflict because of the association. Many blacks, like many whites, never feel a racial identity through the course of their lives, enough to feel threatened by someone of a different race. But the consciousness of race can be provoked, raised to an unfounded obsession, in an experience. Former FBI Director James Comey once described the aggressive behavior of white police in black neighborhoods to their unpleasant experiences with black criminals, without any experiences with the larger law-abiding black community in social life.
The perception that one belongs to a besieged class threatened by another class, much less a group of competitors for power, status, and security, will almost always increase identification,solidarity,and stereotypical prejudices. It doesn't matter whether the class of individuals feeling threatened are whites, blacks, immigrants, a local police force, teachers' unions, M.D.'s, the Trump White House, Democrats, reporters, lawyers, unions, religions, the military ----and emerging minorities of mixed racial groups (i.e., Louisiana "Creoles," "mulattos," Mexican mestizos celebrated as La Raza---"the Race," as though the race in question did not originate several generations ago from three racial origins: offsprings of the unions of Africans, Native Americans and Europeans!)
FThomas (Paris, France)
Following Herbert Gans, the real question is not the "racial" origin, but the cultural origin and the cultural self-identification of Americans.

This will help to overcome the difficulties in putting "racially" mixed people into some statistical boxes : where do you put the Vietnamese descendant of a black US soldier who married to an Argentinian ?

But the real question is, of course: why does the U.S. Census produce such an forecast ? Who charged it, and with which mission ? Why are the categories used so clumsy ? To me, the question of skin colour is more political propaganda. And the proof is its pour measurement. If you really want to categorise people according to skin colour - if this is really an official objective of the US Census - you can objectively measure skin colour in taking colour pictures and measuring the colour composition.
Cheryl (Yorktown)
The Census actually leaves it completely to the the person who fills out the form - and is interviewed - to identify themselves in anyway they wish. It doesn't demand information nor does it assign information.

As t whether it provides any useful information about the makeup of the country - I think it does.
Frank (Avon, CT)
The same old demonization of whites in this country is so tiresome. With respect to the US, show me another society which has legislatively disadvantaged its majority white population through affirmative action laws, minority contracting set asides, etc to the extent the US has to benefit non whites. If the US is really that bad of a country, why do millions of people from Africa and Asia clamor to come here? Why is it is the white majority nations in Europe, plus the US, Canada and Australia, are the most sought after destinations for non white immigrants the world over. A big reason is that non whites enjoy a far higher standard of living in the US and other western countries than they would in their native nations. With our generosity trivialized and every perceived micro-aggression magnified, white Americans will never be able to exculpate themselves from the sins of the slave-holding era for those holding the views of those quoting that passage from James Baldwin.
David Gregory (Deep Red South)
In my Baby Boomer youth (b 1961) we were taught (Michigan, then Florida, then Arkansas) of the great American Melting Pot- the story of a diverse people that over time had made a hearty Gumbo. Since my early childhood was in the non-segregated schools of the small town Midwest, I assumed that meant all of us to include the smattering of African-American children among us. After moving south just after the desegregation of the schools, I discovered a very different viewpoint.

I am not trying to tell you that there was no racism in Three Oaks, Michigan. What I will tell you is that it was in no way apparent to Elementary kids and racism is learned behavior. I can remember my younger sister coming home from the first day of school and excitedly telling our Mom that there was a girl in her class that was "all black". I guess our trips to Chicago had never registered in her mind at that early age that such people existed.

Anyhow, we quickly learned after moving South that there was another very different reality. We attended newly desegregated schools where white flight had yet to re-segregate. All of us had to go to school together, and southern white kids raised in Jim Crow now found themselves in integrated classes- sometimes conducted by African-American Teachers. It was a quick lesson in the realities of race in America.

Somewhere along the way we lost sight of the melting pot and identity politics took over. Not sure that was a good idea. The melting pot is better.
Socrates (Verona NJ)
As long as poor white rubes continue to identify and sympathize with Confederate millionaires and billionaires who are trying their public-policy best to kill them, the rabid, regressive, religious Republican nationally-assisted suicide movement will continue their heartfelt assassination attempts on America.

Nice people.
mark (berkeley)
You have completely misread the zeitgeist. I understand that is a pre-req for epistemic closure.
MRO (Virginia)
Discussions of race are amorphous and incomplete until they include the ways in which the wealthy and powerful use race to manage the rest of the population.

Either the wealthy and powerful can encourage people to work together for the common good, or they can pit people against each other, flattering - and deceiving - the more powerful group while scapegoating and persecuting the weaker.

Democratic movements combat the destructive, divisive strategies plutocrats use, while right wing populist movements destroy strategies for building peace and cooperation.
DrKick (Honiara, Solomon Islands)
And let us not forget that religions tend to aid and abet this divide and conquer approach? Perhaps not more than they teach The Christ's message of a coming together of peoples, but still too much?
KT (MA)
It's called divide and conquer.
greg (savannah, ga)
Mostly true but most people even within their on ethnic groups still harbor biases, sometimes subtle or even unconscious, based on skin color and other visual cues.
rhporter (Virginia)
ah how comforting for whites, however you define them. blacks remain the other. this is how racism is perpetuated and gives rise to people like the odious Charles Murray.
Christopher Gage (Wales, UK)
Strong work. I have always thought it was folly to project so long into the future. Immigation levels and fertility patterns aren't static.

The idea, or fantasy, peddled by the left doesn't marry reality, or even flirt with it. The US is still 65% White European, with White Hispanic that number creeps toward 80%. This has allowed Democrats to get lazy, on the assumption a demographic wave will hand them a permanent majority. It's not going to happen.
Dave Smith (Cleveland)
My wife's third generation American born (Irish decent) great aunt Mary couldn't get a job teaching in Toledo public schools before WW 2 because "we don't hire Catholics here, miss."

There will always be those who are discriminated against.
@NYCQuisqueyano (NYC)
I disagree, I believe the USA will mirror the rest of the Americas- countries filled with a majority mixed race peoples of European, African, Asian and indigenous ancestry. Then maybe, hopefully, the humongous black/white divide will come to an end.
lunanoire (St. Louis, MO)
No, places like that have colorism instead of racism. To a dark skinned person, there is little difference between the two.
Andrew H (New York)
What is wrong with this society that many of the people who identify as white feel such constant insecurity? They have had the scales steeply tipped in their favor since settlers arrived in this country from Europe. Slavery, Jim Crow, etc and it's still not enough??? Is it paranoia from guilt for generations of injustice? Is it an unwillingness to compete on a level playing field after enjoying unfair privilege for so long? Is it a fear that stems from recognizing that for the planet as a whole, "whiteness" is a small minority? This country would be better if the notion of a "white race" was obliterated altogether.
Blonde Guy (Santa Cruz, CA)
I'm Jewish. Back in the 1950s, Jews weren't white. I still feel weird when I have to check "white" on some form—what does it mean?
John Brown (Idaho)
A room-mate of my son in college was blonde and blue eyed but had a
Grandfather who emigrated from Cuba.

His family lived in Los Gatos, made over $ 300,000 a year.

He said he was Hispanic on his Grad School forms as he still had
inherited a "Hispanic" last name.

The Top Grad Schools started calling him as soon as they got his application.
Phone ringing all the time in the apartment on Blake Street in Berkeley

Was he "mixed race"...well my son said he saw a picture of the Grandfather
and he was of pure Spanish Blood - light brown hair/blue eyes.

Everyone is missing the point.

Money and money along talks in America.
If you are of a "Minority" but worth a lot of money -
and send your kids to private schools - are they going to vote
along with their "Minority" or with their "Economic Strata" ?

Economic Stratification of America is what you have to fear.
John Bergstrom (Boston, MA)
Question: if the Census Bureau hadn't published their prediction, would no one have noticed any demographic changes going on? Suppose the Census Bureau had never even counted people by "race"? I'm going to suggest that it wouldn't have made very much difference in people's perceptions or attitudes.
Looking at methodology: what's wrong with the Census Bureau making a prediction, with the unspoken bracket "Given current definitions and trends" understood? The census forms aren't carved in stone, and every year people have the option of redefining themselves, or refusing to define themselves, if that becomes more meaningful. Definitions and trends can change, thank goodness, but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't talk about what is going on currently - that's the only way we can speculate about the options opening in the future.
Speculatively, I'm going to question whether everyone achieving some level of success will want to start calling themselves White, or will be looked at as White. I'm going to guess, maybe wishfully, that we will see more "Pride" identities, by heritage or culture, with the blanket categories like "White" or "POC" losing importance. Vamos a ver.
MAL (San Antonio, TX)
If the misinterpretation of the census made Republicans unnecessarily anxious, it appears that it also has made some Democrats complacent, waiting for demographics to deliver victory to them in ever-receding future election years.
FThomas (Paris, France)
You suggest that Democrats are anti-white racists ??
bwise (Portland, Oregon)
This is interesting but what if we just forgot about race except for the Human Race. That is what I plan to write in.
Steever (Jersey City)
I might be reading too much into this; but if academia, MSM media, and the "intelligencia" continue to insist on demonizing whites. As though our numbers and majority (i.e. White people) are a "mistake" that need to be fixed, the divides in society will continue to swell and the Trumps of the world will continue to thrive...
M. L. Chadwick (Portland, Maine)
Adult white men have never been a majority (49% vs. 51% adult white women). Tuck heterosexuality and Christianity into the white male equation, and the proportion of white heterosexual Christian males gets even smaller.

I suspect the social advances by women and by men with darker skin and different religious persuasions has made white men more consciously aware of their permanent minority status than ever before.

Being a minority didn't feel so bad for hundreds of years--they were in charge, and could help or harm whoever they wished. Along came a president who was half-African, and then a strong possibility of a female president!

White men are inevitably noticing their perpetual minority status, and being invited to notice their association with actions taken by their forebears and their personal responsibility for any negative speech or actions they themselves do. This surely hurts, and their pain is shared by many women (like me) who love them. But they're not being "demonized."
Bayou Houma (Houma, Louisiana)
Power, status and wealth still whiten, as Brazilians say, of black-white marriages between wealthy backs and poor whites, but in the early European conquest of the Americas it was common practice for white European colonial men to take native wives.
Two centuries ago Mexico's population was one-third African and African-Hispanic-Indian mixed race. Today, as Harvard Prof. Henry Louis Gates discovered, very few Mexicans acknowledge their black ancestry.
A segment of host Jane Pauley's CBS "Sunday Morning" a few weeks ago detailed the early 20th century white takeover of the Osage Native American oil wealth through white male "marriages" to Osage tribal women, and how many of the women who bore mixed race children were murdered by their white husbands, who were never prosecuted. The Osage wealth was thus transferred out of the tribe by the process of whitening generations. Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) brags about having Cherokee ancestry (without any genetic proof), but the Cherokees of Oklahoma were another tribe where intermarriage with whites (usually white males to native women) led to whitening of the Cherokees even before Pres. Andrew Jackson forced them out of the mid-Atlantic states.
Although the history of inter-racial unions and mixed race history is not a bed time story, thanks to genetic testing, Americans in both hemispheres,(wall or no wall at the Mexican border) we know how Americans have been mixed race for centuries, while identifying with one race.
jp (MI)
"Power, status and wealth still whiten, as Brazilians say,..."

You'll find more mixed race marriages between lower-middle class whites and African-Americans that you will among Chappaqua (or Vermont) liberals.
guanna (BOSTON)
When people look the same class rather the race seems to be more important. I suspect the future social groups may be defined by other groups like education, influence or wealth. Not because there are one or two identifiable races but too many variations to easily categorize by race.
T Montoya (ABQ)
This undersells the case with non-black Hispanics, most of whom identify themselves as white. And why shouldn't they given that genetically their ancestry is probably 100% European? Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are not anomalies.
Julie Zuckman (New England)
What about hispanics of indigenous origin? Where do they fit into this strange calculus?
T Montoya (ABQ)
They would probably identify themselves as minorities but they are a very distinct minority in Latin America. European settlers wiped out indigenous populations in many of the Latin American countries.
Zejee (Bronx)
European settlers could not wipe out indigenous populations totally.
"Let Your Motto Be Resistance" (Washington, DC)
"The bulk of this country’s white population impresses me, and has so impressed me for a very long time, as being beyond any conceivable hope of moral rehabilitation. They have been white too long; they have been married to the lie of white supremacy too long; the effect on their personalities, their lives, their grasp of reality, has been as devastating as the lava which so memorably immobilized the citizens of Pompeii…. The world is not white; it never was white, cannot be white. White is a metaphor for power…. No one was white before he/she came to America. It took generations, and vast amount of coercion, before this became a white country. America became white—the people who, as they claim, "settled", the country became white—because of the necessity of denying the black presence, and justifying the black subjugation…. No community can be established on so genocidal a lie. White men…became white by slaughtering the cattle, poisoning the wells, torching the houses, massacring Native Americans, raping black women…. This moral erosion has made it quite impossible for those who think of themselves as white in this country to have any moral authority at all—privately or publicly.... This necessity of justifying a totally false identity and of justifying what must be called a genocidal history...they do not dare confront the ravage and the lie of their history."

James Baldwin, "On Being White...And Other Lies"
Herman Villanova (Denver)
This should be required reading at some level of our educational system. Over generations, so many non-whites, especially Latinos, intermarry so that it is hard to distinguish them. All this fear of minorities "taking over" is ruining our heritage of accepting newcomers and electing racist politicians exploiting this nonsense.
George (NC)
The Theory of Manifest Destiny.

Still working, isn't it?
jp (MI)
It made California what it is today. Ask the folks in San Francisco how it all worked out for them.
PaulS (Rochester, NY)
I very much thank Prof. Gans for this article, as much for the insight it incorporates as for the reaction it has inspired in those who have responded in this space to it.

That said, the concept of "race" is utter nonsense. In most countries, it doesn't even exist (religion, of course, an arguably even more destructive divider, dominates many other societies), but in the US race is our way of rationalizing the appalling way we have treated African-Americans, not as slaves, but post-slavery. We share a history of slavery with many societies, including African societies, but we absolutely refused, North as much as South, to admit ex-slaves into American society after the Civil War. Jim Crow and its northern economic equivalents, have led to the absurd idea that "Blacks" are different from "Whites" in more than their appearance.

It's long since time for us to move on. This issue will bring us down as a society unless we do.
Teed Rockwell (Berkeley, CA)
It is a fact that race has no biological basis, but that does not mean it is nonsense. Race is a social construct, in much the same way that money is a social construct. No one believes that there is scientific evidence that those green pieces of paper in our wallets have any actual worth. They are a valuable only because society agrees that they are valuable. But that doesn't mean we can say "money isn't real" and ignore its impact on us and society.
Amanda (New York)
If you can see it and readily identify it, it has a physical and biological base. That doesn't mean it should matter -- it often doesn't. But denying it is like seeing the emperor's new clothes. They're not there no matter how much you say they are.
Alex Schindler (Brooklyn)
Man, readers really have trouble distinguishing predictions from endorsements and descriptive accounts from normative ones!

True observation : America tends to expand its definition of "whiteness" over time to include more ethnicities, and more people of mixed "race."

Normative claim never made by author: it is good that whiteness becomes a more inclusive category and is also a proxy for acceptance by the mainstream culture, with the access to political power and socioeconomic opportunity that comes with it.

True observation : certain white people express fear of becoming a minority in America, partly due to Census Bureau projections the author can dissect for their many errors.

Normative claim never made by author : those fears would be wholly reasonable if empirically justified, though fortunately they aren't.

from the comments you'd think he wrote an essay about the second and fourth points.

yes, the obsession with whiteness, which is as peculiarly American as race-based chattel slavery, lack of mandatory maternity leave, mass school shootings, and taxation of expatriates' income, is a bad thing. But it exists, and isn't the author's fault. Don't shoot the messenger.
Jason (Miami)
While the "whitening" of certain mixed race population makes some intrinsic sense based on the logic presented; what this article misses, I believe, is that just as more mixed race people may eventually consider themselves or (others may consider them) as white, the perceived as well as the actual value of "whiteness" may very well be diminishing... especially as "white" becomes a racialized identity unto itself rather than just the absense of racial identity. Increasingly, urban whites and college educated whites, and thereby wealthier whites are politically, socially, and culturally alligned with racial minorities. Hence as whites divide politically and geographically amongst themselves the meaning of "white" is changing as well.

Those that are voting along white ethnic lines, at least those that are responding to the open dog whistle, are poorer, less educated and rural... it isn't clear that minorities would garner much benefit from identifying politically with this cohort who is taking ownership of "whiteness".

Historically, there were clear incentives for non-whites to pass as whites. But now, or at least by 2040, it isn't clear whether that will remain true. Thererfore the need or at least the incentive to hide mixed racial identities will likely diminish, as no assimilation penalty among middle and upper echelons is asssessed.
Michael Sugarman (Santa Fe, New Mexico)
In talking about the white American. It's worth remembering who once was "White" and how that changed over time. Italians were not White when millions of them immigrated. Polish neither, nor any Catholics. This can be applied to the Jewish (Half of my Jewish, Catholic family.) somewhat.
What's we are talking about is an Us verses Them world, in which We/Us absorb allies, over time, against Them.
It's worthwhile to remember that tribalism goes back to the Serengeti and that our true nature is not going anywhere soon.
M. L. Chadwick (Portland, Maine)
The NYT needs a "Sad" emoticon, as well as the generic "Like!"
Scott (Illyria)
This article has a major unfounded assumption: That because mixed-race individuals tended to identify as "white" in the past, they will continue to identify as "white" in the future. That tendency likely stemmed from the fact that being identified as "white" in the past gave one advantages (both real and psychological), which likely no longer is true. For one, regardless of how one feels about multiculturalism, one undeniable result is that it has made non-white individuals feel proud, not ashamed, of having a non-white heritage. A second is the advantages of being seen as "white" may disappear in the future. It's not hard to see that a Chinese-white individual might prefer to identify as Chinese-American, especially if she goes into a field like international business. In fact, the recent trend to stereotype Trump voters as uneducated, racist "whites" and highlight the rise of "white identity" politics might push more mixed-race individuals NOT to identify themselves as white.

Finally, the author's assertion of whites still being "dominant" in California is incredibly clueless. Has he followed politics in California recently? Or stepped onto a U.C. campus? Or been to Silicon Valley? (Or any big city here?) There's a reason right-wingers are freaked out about California being America's future.
William Case (Texas)
The census form has a category for mixed race. At present 2.6 percent of Americas identify as being "two or more races." Most people, like President Obama, who are part white and part black identify as black because people perceive them as black.
Jeff (Atlanta)
Most people would describe me as white, but I no longer claim to be on any form, including the census. There are only disadvantages in doing so.

I hope a "no race" movement develops before the next census where people either refuse to answer or everyone enters "mixed".
KT (MA)
Why can't Euro-Americans hyphenate?
js (Maryland)
Thank you Herbert for pointing out the obvious. White (and other racial and ethnic categories) have always been a social construct. Every wave of immigrants (Irish, Italian, etc.) has gone through discrimination and seen not as "white" but "other". Now all these non Anglo-Saxon "ethnics" have been "whitened" or better "Americanized". The same will happen with Hispanics/Latinos, Asians, and, even African-Americans (although the stained history of slavery supports continued affirmative actions for their US descendants, but not African or Carribean-born immigrants). Ironically, most of the immigrants from the Middle East and the very countries Trump has tried to block travel visas would be considered white in the US Census. Hopefully the Census will listen and make use of Gans' suggestions.
Neil &amp; Julie (Brooklyn)
That's a shame. As a White person, I am eager to end White rule in this country so we can move forward as a nation. White rule has brought us inequality, police brutality, the lowest literacy rate in the Western world.

The only hope for America is to end White rule and bid farewell to the racist legacy from which our country has evolved.
GRH (New England)
Take a look at the rest of the countries around the world. Go ahead, rate and rank them based on the amount of melanin in their skin. You will find some countries, like China and Japan, led by people with even less melanin than the "White rule" in the USA (never mind President Obama's two terms), with widely varying records regarding equality, police brutality, literacy rates, etc. Then continue to countries such as those in Scandinavia and northern Europe, frequently led by those with approximately the same melanin as someone like the Bush family, Clintons & Donald Trump. You will find countries such as Sweden and Denmark. Look at their record on equality, police brutality, literacy rates. Continue on to countries closer to the equator, where humanity through the millennia have evolved with more melanin in their skin. Look at their record on inequality, police brutality, literacy rates, etc. Where do you want to live? Under the low-melanin leaders of China? Under the slightly higher melanin leaders of Sweden? Under the high melanin leaders of Somalia, Sudan or Nigeria? Perhaps human nature has similarities everywhere but certain political systems have evolved that better channel human nature in positive directions?
M. (Seattle)
Talk about a waste of money. Time to mothball the census.
George S (New York, NY)
It's required under the constitution but only to count population for proportional representation...all of this focus on race and who you sleep with, etc. is a modern creation.
Kerby (North Carolina)
Right wing hysteria? The left has been beyond hysterical for the past year or so and literally foaming at the mouth since Trump was elected President.
Don't see the right wing folks vandalizing universities or suppressing free speech either.
Teed Rockwell (Berkeley, CA)
Then you haven't been reading the newspapers very closely.
Amanda (New York)
You're right where Kerby's point is proven and still can't see it.
David Hartman (Chicago)
What in the world is this essay saying? That our multicultural nation will eventually bleach out into Whiteopia? That it is appropriate and inevitable for anyone who can, to differentiate themselves from truly black unbleachables?

In attempting to debunk "Right-Wing Hysteria" Mr. Gans comes up with an appallingly racist anodyne.
matthewobrien (Milpitas, CA)
Many years ago I went to see Paul Rodriguez present a stand-up comedy act here in the San Francisco Bay Area. He started talking about the great ethnic diversity found here, and how much he enjoyed the different customs and cultures of all the groups. Such a rich environment.

But at the end he issued a cautionary warning: "Enjoy it now while you can, because it's not going to be long until we're all Filipino! (Mix of European Spanish, Pacific Islander, Chinese, Japanese, etc.)

PS: That's what the author is saying.
Nancy (Washington State)
Racism isn't going away until the human population becomes beige. But I'm sure we'll still find other reasons to hate each other. Sneeches on beaches with stars upon thars.
Rocky (New Orleans)
Respondents self report on census questionnaires. They self-report no third person assigns them to a racial category.
Joe Paradisio (New York)
"White fears probably even helped Donald Trump win the 2016 election." Gee, let's just make stuff up as we go along...
jp (MI)
Has the author lived under a rock?
It's the left wing and progressive media has taken the lead in pointing out that the US is "no longer a white Christian nation" and that "whites don't want to give up power" since they are becoming a minority (in the overall population.

First Comey was dong wrong because he was fired and then it's the progressives reassuring whites they will remain the dominant demographic group.

Have the north and south magnetic poles also switched positions?
Peter (NYC)
Am I the only one tired of the obsession with race? It really leads nowhere...
HJR (Wilmington Nc)
Peter
Basically that is what this article is saying. Race is a social construct and a changing label, not a hard fact.
You just say it in fewer words.
Baron95 (Westport, CT)
So let me get this straight.

The NYT, the liberals and the bi-coastal academics who coined and love the term "people of color", are now complaining that when the Census Bureau uses it, it gives the wrong impression?

Why the change of heart?

Maybe because their prediction that Democrats had a demographic lock on power, with "people of color" guaranteeing their dominance turned out to be a pipe dream?
jp (MI)
And James Comey was wronged when he was fired.
"Somethings happening here, what it is ain't exactly clear...."
Socrates (Verona NJ)
Baron95...maybe because of the very obvious realization that Whites R Us Americans get agitated, upset and political spiteful when 'others' are brought up too often in their white conversations.
nastyboy (california)
"the census may have unintentionally increased white racism, thereby justifying the longstanding Republican strategy of turning itself into a whites-first party."

very interesting observation; aren't you too smart to be writing in this paper? but seriously that's spot on!
Andrew Ton (India)
Guess it is a matter of convenience to use the term "white" for anglo-saxons. But they are actually pink, not white. Look around. Some Asians are actually whiter than "whites".
George S (New York, NY)
Another example of why the absurd term "people of color" is so absurd.
Pol Pont (California)
It is not a matter of white vs others, it is a matter of replacement. New populations made up of people from all over the world will replace populations mainly of European ancestry.

And it is highly desirable if you look at California which is the most prosperous and innovative place in the world. Its population went from 50 % white vs 50 % others in 2000 to 38 % white vs 62 % other today.

And it remains the most American place in the world. It is all about being American. Even if the white population is to become the largest minority in 25 years, the country will still be 100 % American. The more diverse we become the stronger.
jp (MI)
"And it is highly desirable if you look at California which is the most prosperous and innovative place in the world. Its population went from 50 % white vs 50 % others in 2000 to 38 % white vs 62 % other today."

Actually the populations replacing Europeans will primarily be Asians - either Indian or Chinese.
In terms of the white population of California, well that all depends on what race our Hispanic/Latinx brothers and sisters identify with this week.
cruciform (new york city)
And of course this fake equivalence of racism and the Census leads directly to the disabling if not destruction of the foundations of voters' rights.

If you're data are incomplete or misleading, then you can gerrymander to your heart's content; design federal and state budgets that punish and reward depending on the whims of the powers-that-be (OK, that happens now, too, but this will make that process less transparent; and move the electoral system away from, not towards, the principle of one man-one vote.

The bald, amoral cynicism of Republicans grows more nauseating every day.
JC (oregon)
Whiting may not be an accurate word to use in this case. Instead, I think Americanization is a better term. To me, America is Marlboro country, farm country and cowboy country. I saw decent people honestly work hard in fields in my American dream. It is the grandness of the land and the way of life which attracted me. To me, America is silicon valley. Sky is the limit and it can only happen in America. To me, America is the only land which I call home and I can feel safe. Even though racial discrimination is real, I was given opportunities and I work extremely hard to climb ladders.
Only in America, dreaming in red white and blue!
Steve Sailer (America)
Happy 90th birthday to Dr. Gans, but I can't help but think that he's missed noticing the modern "Flight from White." America isn't like it was when he arrived as refugee from Nazis in 1940 and it was prudent to downplay your diversity.

Since 1969, the government and the culture hand out affirmative action money and prizes to people who claim to be Diverse, so self-interested persons of mixed descent tend to push hard on claims to the most rewarded identities.

For example, there was the recent case of a Hawaiian-born individual who until his mid-20s was largely thought of by his friends as "just another mixed kid" or "international" or "multicultural." But he eventually decided to emphasize his black ancestry, writing a 150,000 word memoir about his ties to the African father he barely knew called "Dreams From My Father: A Story of Race and Inheritance."

And things worked out really well for him. White people loved this guy who was raised by whites and Asians but who claimed to be black on the 2010 Census. They even made him President and paid him $400,000 per speech.
Peter Johnson (London)
Barack Obama's carefully worked, dynamic and highly successful personal strategy to play identity politics with his own background is a secret hiding in plain sight. No one in the mainstream media dares mention it, but there it is for anyone who looks. His highly successful personal history in this regard is a lesson for all of us. If you have any race cards to play, use them skillfully. If you do not, be aware how they can be played against you in the game of life.
Steve Bruns (Summerland)
Every lazy person I ever met was entirely engrossed in the notion that some identifiable others were getting much sweeter deal than they were. I wonder why that is?
Jean (Pacific Northwest)
I really appreciate the use of the word "hysteria" in the article. Because that is what it is. What horrible thing is supposed to happen to white people (of which I am one) if more non-whites are living here? In what way, exactly, is this supposed to ruin my life? I don't buy that brown people everywhere are taking jobs that white people would otherwise have. Here in WA, non-Hispanic white people would rather stay home than pick apples. I, for one, am not afraid and I refuse to dwell in resentment. The world is changing. Get used to it.
M. L. Chadwick (Portland, Maine)
Jean asks, "What horrible thing is supposed to happen to white people (of which I am one) if more non-whites are living here?"

I suspect the great fear is Karma, aka what happens when a group of people have spent generations *not* treating others as they themselves would want to treated... and those Others are becoming a powerful majority.
Robert Kolker (Monroe Twp. NJ USA)
Since when does a cultural feature (such as having Spanish speaking parents) become a -race-? Since when does one's cultural background determine the content of one's mind? 1 + 1 = 2 regardless of the "color" of the one doing the addition.
Middleman MD (New York, NY)
"Since when does one's cultural background determine the content of one's mind?"

Robert Kolker, clearly you've not been on a college campus recently or learned about intersectionality.
George S (New York, NY)
Interesctionality...another nonsensical term coined by academia.
Brad (Los Angeles, CA)
Do you really need to ask how culture affects the contents of one's mind? Have you ever had a conversation with someone from India, China, or even a different religious group in the States? Jewish, Evangelical, Catholic and atheist Americans have very, very different understandings of the world, and sets of "facts" and expectations.
Brad (Los Angeles, CA)
I feel like this argument absolutely nails a major point, but maybe misses a bigger point. Gans is completely right that the definition of whatever-constitutes-the-majority (whiteness) is likely to expand in the next generation... Psychologically, most people will always want to be in the majority, so will accept new members to keep their group the biggest. But that's not to say they're wrong to feel like that immigration is changing the country around them, in ways they can't control. People (like my parents, say) look around and see American culture changing extremely rapidly. Part of that is through endogenous causes (like our homegrown technological revolution); but part of that change---absolutely---is because of immigration, and the creation of a "rootless cosmopolitan elite".

So in an important sense, they're right to be afraid that their culture is becoming the minority fringe, in matters big and small. Whether we're religious beliefs, ethical presuppositions, presuppositions of ettiquette, common cultural referents or food --- the normal, generational, pace of change is being hastened by immigration. And, moreover, it's a change that's happening unequally across the country. "Flyover country" is perfectly correct to be worried that much of America is moving quickly away from their shared heritage.
James Ricciardi (Panamá, Panamá)
Mistake 6. That you found it necessary to write this article in the first place. The last time I checked all the persons the census were counting are human beings. That's where real progress will be made; when we start counting people as human beings. It would a lot harder to gerrymander if the Census Bureau did that. More importantly, it would be a lot more humane.
Sam D (Berkeley CA)
"These numbers have become a handy data point for whites fearful that they are being threatened and “overwhelmed” by a growing tide of darker-skinned people."

What's wrong with us whites? Why are we so scared of the idea that we're being "threatened" or "overwhelmed" by other? A moment's reflection indicates that it's probably because we're afraid that "non-whites" will do to us what we've been doing all along to them:

I've never been stopped for Driving While White; I've never been red-lined by a bank because I'm white; I've never been questioned about my voting rights; I've never had my family separated from me and sold because I'm white; and I could go on forever. Evidently we can dish it out but we can't take it. And I'm not so sure that "non-whites" will treat us as terribly as we've treated them; in fact, I'm betting they'll do better.
WeHadAllBetterPayAttentionNow (Southwest)
We are so much more like chimpanzees than we like to believe. It is really frightening how much faster the human mind is able to advance scientifically than it is able to emotionally.
Mr. Slater (Bklyn, NY)
Stop with the wholesale generalizing! Generalization is the at the root of prejudice.
Michael (Ottawa)
I didn't choose to be white, it just happened. And I'm finding this "whites vs. the rest of the world" mindset to be increasingly tedious, and racist.

Perhaps it's different in Canada, but most whites have meaningful friendships with people of all colors and nationalities. It happens because people gravitate to others simply because they like them.
Jametta Johnson (Philadelphia, Pa.)
So let me get this right: the Census Bureau is responsible for White people's fear of people of color by forecasting that Whites may be a minority by 2040s. But White people shouldn't be afraid because regardless of the demographic changes they will still maintain political, economic and cultural control;and mixed race people, particularly mixed Asian and White people and mixed light Latinos and White people, may look may white enough to be accepted as White, thereby increasing the number of White people. I 'm not sure what about this article bothers me the most.
John Bergstrom (Boston, MA)
The only correction I'd suggest is, I don't think he means that mixed race people will end up looking white enough to be accepted as White - like very light skinned Black people "passing for White" in the old racial dramas - I think he means that people who look exactly as mixed or Asian or Latino as they do now, will be called and accepted as simply White - in the same way that the Irish didn't change, but are now accepted as "obviously" White. Not that more people will be lighter skinned, but that the convention of "what a White person looks like" will have expanded.
But that may be what you were saying. We are talking about ambiguous and offensive (but all too "real") social conventions here.
Paul (Los Angeles)
The premises of this article -- that the threat of minority/majority is fueling racism and votes for Trump -- just shows how liberals never listen to what people say, and take them at their word. Racism, or a fear that minorities will overtake the country, is driven by a constant drumbeat in the media about giving special breaks to minorities. Diversity initiatives, affirmative action, etc. An illegal immigrant from El Salvador with no ties to the United States gets far more sympathy from the ruling class than a white guy in Ohio whose family has been here and contributing for generations. Poor white people and even white people in the middle class who are seeing bleak futures are angry about that -- and that's what they are saying to anyone who will listen. It is past time for liberals who think they have all the answers to shut up and listen for a while.
lunanoire (St. Louis, MO)
Sadly, the media tends to portray American poverty with brown faces, which ignores the reality that there are huge numbers of poor white people. Imwould trade diversity initiatives as a non white person for the benefit of the doubt, favorable interest rates, hiring odds, etc. that white people get daily.
Joe DiMiceli (San Angelo, TX)
Great article and here is another trope from the minority side: "People of color". I assume this was an attempt to enlarge the minority membership. Obviously, it failed. Ask any non-white, non-African American group if they identify as a person of color and they will say no. Advocates of this designation define it as anyone who is not white and this has racist overtones. Maybe the census bureau should break down people not by the color of their skin but by some other more meaningful metric.
JD
charlesbalpha (Atlanta)
"The Office of Management and Budget requires the census to count people of white-Latino, white-Asian and white-black ancestry as nonwhite." I learned in school that this was called the "one-drop" rule and was based on the racist assumption that any non-white ancestry "corrupted the blood" of "pure whiteness". Who made the policy in 2017, and why haven't they been fired?

The article claims that poor whites have read this phony demographic and panicked over "losing control". Actually the only people I have heard talk about it are "identity politics" liberals who thought it would help them win future elections.
nerdrage (SF)
To summarize: whites, as now defined, will be a minority within a few decades. What no one can predict: who, if anyone, will care.
Charlesbalpha (Atlanta)
Obviously "identity politics" liberals will care, since they're convinced that the way people vote is determined by what identity the pundits have put them in. For example, evangelicals won't vote for a vulgar, womanizing politician. The theory worked so well in November 2016.
Vanessa Hall (Millersburg, MO)
Consequently, whites treat them as white. This “whitening” process will only increase in the future.

*******

Herbert J Gans loses all credibility with me in this sentence. I understand what he's trying to say - I think - but I know very few people who need 'consequence' in order to treat their fellow human beings as fellow human beings. Lumping all white people together as racists who automatically treat people of color differently is offensive.
Cam (Midwest)
That's not what the word consequently means. In this context, it means "therefore" or "as a result." His point is that there is whites view some groups as being similar to being white and *therefore* treat them as white.
Blue state (Here)
You don't have to be a racist to have unacknowledged white privilege.
sjaco (north nevada)
"However, most whites do not see their common victimhood and too many blame blacks, Latinos and now Middle Eastern and other recent immigrants for their troubles."

It seems that Mr. Gans likes to generalize. I guess it's ok to assign negative traits to folk as long as they are white. If any hysteria exists it is with "progressives" that write this kind of bologna and revel in dividing the masses into groups and subsequently attempt to set them against each other.
Robert Kolker (Monroe Twp. NJ USA)
@sjcao
"It seems that Mr. Gans likes to generalize. I guess it's ok to assign negative traits to folk as long as they are white."

Ah! I see that you noticed that.
KT (MA)
The only color that matters in the future and today is GREEN.
GC (Brooklyn)
As Professor Gans illustrates, depending on how you look at it, whites either ceased to be a majority 100 years ago (given that whiteness then strictly meant being an Anglo-Saxon Protestant) or they could cease to be a majority if the fluid boundaries that allowed non-Anglo ethnic groups in from Europe/Middle East/North African become rigid. Although I hear now that the Census will remove Middle Easterners and North Africans from the white category. That's kind of odd, isn't it?

I agree with Professor Gans: whites will always be a majority in the US, because the definition of whiteness will expand. One fundamental flaw that Gans fails to point out is Latino. That's not a race. I'm Latino and of entirely European descent, as are so many others. Others are Asian. Others are Black. Others are indigenous. And even among Latinos who are of mixed ancestry, the fact is culturally, Latinos are fundamentally a European group, speaking a European language and being shaped by European culture (just not the same European culture that shaped the US).

Ultimately, over time, the notion of majority and minority will also change, once again, as it did in the past through assimilation, intermarriage, and the basic fact that identity and culture are alive and in flux.

One hopes that whatever happens, the USA continues to on the trajectory to becoming a more open and accepting place, living up to its ideals, and connecting with the basic humanity we all share. Bean counters be damned!
WeHadAllBetterPayAttentionNow (Southwest)
Yep, Latino is an irrelevant categorization. I think it was originally a sort of a way to call people of Native American ancestry something polite like "Colored People" was for those of African-American heritage. Latino these days means nothing but perhaps having either Native American, Spanish speaking or Portuguese speaking heritage. One does not actually need to speak Spanish to be Latino.
John Brown (Idaho)
As a mixed race person, I would like to see the Census forbidden to
ask anyone what their "race" is.

In America all that is really important is how much money you make
not the 'tincture' of your skin.
lunanoire (St. Louis, MO)
Non white people face racism even if they are rich.
ebmem (Memphis, TN)
The only white people who have any fear of becoming a minority are Democrats. By continuously slicing and dicing up the population into interest groups, they are well on their way.
Pen M. Hutchinson (Baton Rouge, LA)
@ebmen
Only a Republican (like their current leader) would project one of their own short comings on a Democrat without battiing an eye. :)

It's Republicans - not Democrats - who have a fear of becoming a minority.

It's Republicans who are determined to keep blacks from voting, poor people from eating and "your huddled masses yearning to breathe free," from becoming Americans.

The Democats are the "big tent" party. A group picture of the Democrats looks like a box of chocolates, with a lot of white chocolate and a lot of all the other
colors of the rainbow.

A picure of Republicans looks like a winter white out.
WomanWhoWeaves (Middle Penninsula)
This is a weird article. It seems to be reassuring "us" (whites?) that "we" will still be the majority because some of "them" will really be(come) "us". I'm fine with a browner country. White people are a global anomaly. Once you get through the skin the organs all look the same anyway. (Former surgical trainee.)
Joseph Poole (NJ)
"Right wing hysteria" over racial composition of the U.S. population exists only in the fevered imagination of multiculti, identity-obsessed leftists. As a conservative, and Trump supporter, I can tell you that I (and others like me) do not care one bit about the racial/ethnic make-up of the U.S. As Donald Trump put it - I forget the exact words - "when you have patriotism in your heart, there is no room for bigotry." Black, white, brown - who cares? If we love our country and each other, we are all the same.
gretab (ohio)
You may feel that way, but I can guarantee that my late mother, a very conservative, Fox News watching, Republican, did not feel the same way. She whole heartedly felt that she was, in her own words "a minority in my own country".
William Case (Texas)
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the United States was 77.1 percent white in 2015, up from 72.4 percent in 2010. Hispanics can be of any race, but most are white. While most have some Native American ancestry, they are predominantly of European ancestry. They are no darker skinned than other Americans of Southern European ancestry. https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/00
jp (MI)
" Hispanics can be of any race, but most are white. "

I worked with an immigrant from Mexico who he looked like he could be from Spain. We discussed my Eastern European ancestry with no qualms whatsoever. I mentioned that he looked like he could be from Spain and man he did not like it at all.
Lamont MacLemore (Kingston, PA)
"Hispanics can be of any race, but *most* are white."

Surely, you jest! If that were the case, Trump would also be building a wall at the Canadian border, too, or he wouldn't be building a wall at the Mexican border, either.
J.H. Smith (Washington state)
In the interest of accuracy, "Hispanics" in the New World are predominantly of Asian ancestry, because they are descended from people who came east over the Aleutian land bridge from Asia. Of course there was mixing between the Spanish conquerors and native peoples who became known as Hispanics; descendants would be part Caucasian European (from the Spanish side) and part Mongol from the native side. Whether they are called First people, aboriginals, First Nations people, New World Indians, Mexicans, Guatemalans, Peruvians, Ecuadoreans, etc., these North and South American people have a fundamental ancestral blood link to Japanese, Koreans, Chinese, etc.
Art Work (new york, ny)
Will it be the majority-minority or the minority-majority ?
I say it's broccoli ....
bl (nyc)
let's remember the vast majority of "Latinos" from Argentina, Chile, and Cuba are actually White. Think of the current pope, Marco Rubio - they are seen and treated as White.
William Case (Texas)
The Census Bureau projects that America will be 68 5 percent white in 1960 but that non-Hispanic whites will make up only 43.6 percent of the population. However, it’s unlikely that we will still distinguish between non-Hispanic whites and Hispanic whites in 2060.
https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2015/demo...
J.H. Smith (Washington state)
Mr. Gans, you make some good points but you also undermine your credibility by conveying many statements as facts that are not necessarily so -- mostly how this group or that group thinks or feels. Stick to data.
Doubting Thomas (35803)
Data is nice but this critique seems unfair in this context. First there is plenty of data out there indicating the degree to which mixed-race individuals and the progeny feel. Second, part of the argument is a prediction for which it is difficult to get data due to the time-travel commute. The key thing to understand is that there is clear evidence that folks like Irish and Italians and Jews were not considered part of the white community at one point, and that is rarely questioned by anyone these days. That adds to the plausibility of the prediction, but yeah, predictions can be wrong.
Doubting Thomas (35803)
Happy birthday to the esteemed author, born May 9, 1927.

At 90 years old Gans is still sharp and concise, and making far more sense than many of the hyper-politicized sociologists (of the left-wing hysteria) these days. But let's give a shout-out to another sociologist, George Yancey, who made some similar points in his 2003 book "Who Is White?"
Barbara (Los Angeles)
While this is a great argument for the "socially constructed' points on race, there are some important ones being left out. For example, the census fails to take into account past reports that LEFT OUT Latino/Hispanic boxes until as late as 1970. Or Arab-American etc. Early census samplings done by Pew Research show that boxes for other ethnic groupings did not start appearing until then and beyond. What does one tick who is Latina (please STOP using Latinx another socially constructed term) whose family origins were among the first Spanish Californians who came nearly 400 years ago, long before White colonialists... No box until 1970s. Then an "explosion" of Latinos..could it be that we finally had an option?? Yes, socially constructed to make America a place that is considered "white," no offense to my Caucasian friends mind you. The point being when will we FINALLY stop talking about a "white" America when it never truly was all white? When will we stop forcing people to tick boxes for some headcount? This gives AMMO to the less educated (being polite here with sarcasm) who seem to believe that this country belongs to solely one race, or that this particular race is the "master" race? This only serves to divide an already polarized place where racism is on the rise under this person in the Oval Office (again, being polite here)!~
Think about that one.
nerdrage (SF)
Latinx is annoying, isn't it? Let's toss it in the wastebasket along with cis as a term for non-transgender. Bleh, who decreed that word should even exist? They need to stop trying to make up words, they are no good at it.
jp (MI)
" whose family origins were among the first Spanish Californians who came nearly 400 years ago, long before White colonialists."

Hey psssst .... those Spanish Californians were White colonialists.
GC (Brooklyn)
"What does one tick who is Latina whose family origins were among the first Spanish Californians who came nearly 400 years ago, long before White colonialists."

Not for anything, but the Spanish Californians you trace your roots back to were WHITE colonists. While I frankly couldn't give two hoots about white people, let's get real here: Spanish, English, French, Portuguese, and Dutch are all Europeans (read white if you will) who colonized the Americas, sliced and diced this land, and slaughtered native peoples (either with guns or swords or with their myriad diseases). The Latino/Hispanic box is the result of (mainly) Puerto Rican advocacy for such. The Census adds boxes in response to community advocates. It adds them and it takes them away. Don't box yourself in. Boxes can divide, if you want them to. Or they could just be taken for what they are. Americans' obsession with race borders on the maniacal. Scratch the surface and Americans are more or less the same, united by the same hopes and dreams.
GRH (New England)
The Census should really just drop all the slicing and dicing into false demographic categories that serve to divide Americans. As Bobby Kennedy said, "we all share one precious possession, and that is the name American." Most Americans really don't care how much melanin someone has in their skin based on which continent their ancestors most recently came from Just count people or, at most, determine if the person is a US citizen, legal immigrant, or illegal alien and leave it at that.
Cam (Midwest)
Actually the Census does not ask questions about legal or illegal immigration, nor should it. All people living in the U.S. are counted, regardless of their citizenship status. If you don't count everyone, then you cannot determine how the population has changed and what resources need to be allocated to which areas of the country (i.e., more money for roads in areas where the population grew).
Viking-70 (USA - CA)
Historically rates of immigration into the USA have fluctuated. We should not assume that current rates of immigration will remain the same or increase during the next 50 years. If you count every person physically present in the USA today, the percentage of those persons not born in the USA is historically very high (count legal immigrants, illegal immigrants, tourists, people here on business, college students, etc). It is likely that the rate of immigration will reduce closer to the average rate of immigration for the past 100 years. For example consider one possible change in the next 50 years. Assume Mexico becomes a more developed country with a standard of living and crime rates similar to some current European countries. Mexico would then be able to substantially reduce the number of people entering Mexico from the south, and the number of people crossing the southern border of the USA would be close to the number that cross the northern border today.
George S (New York, NY)
The basic purpose of the census is to determine total population counts and for the apportionment of elective representation. The social engineering and identity politics it continues to descend into (at a cost of billions, mind you) just causes evermore roil some angst. Especially when the idea of simply "identifying" as some category as if it is real is trying to take hold and will lead to more conflicted data.

Enough already.
gretab (ohio)
Well, one thing you might not have thought of is the insight this "social engineering" gives you if you look back at past census results to analyze both as our country's changes and our personal familial circumstances. As a genealogist, these questions on the census records provide valuable information on my family and the context of their neighbors. In fact, since I've become a genealogist, I had kept copies of my own census returns I had sent in for my family's benefit, so they wouldn't have to wait 72 years to see my responses. Unfortunately, they were lost when my basement flooded.
Cam (Midwest)
News flash - the racial-ethnic inequality that exists and the angst over it is not due to the Census. The Census just exposes it through data collection. Whether you are interested in it or not, racial-ethnic inequality exists. Pretending it doesn't exist or ignoring it won't make it go away. If you want less angst, you need to talk about the problems that we have, expose them and solve them. Not stick your head in the sand.
George S (New York, NY)
It's not sticking your head in the sand, Cam, for the census was constitutionally mandated only for the issue of representation. We have no shortage of other studies, surveys, and related means of establishing data on inequality - yes, a legitimate issue to examine but in an other way - without spending a fortune in tax dollars (2010 was $12.5 BILLION and 2020 will be even more).
Nathaniel Brown (Edmonds, Wa)
The census has also dropped questions regarding LGBT Americans. This allows Republicans to go on ignoring the many thousands of happy, functional same-sex families and marriages who might otherwise be seen as a significant part of America - that all-white, all-male America that the GOP clings to so tenaciously and so desperately.
Anant Vashi (Charleston, SC)
This is an important topic. and I believe how we ended up with Mr. Trump. Race identification was important in this election, and will likely be going forward for some time. I think the author is trying to make the argument that demographic change, no matter what form it takes, or how long, should not be a source of fear and anxiety for less educated or less affluent whites. Like so many times in American history, attitudes and fears about race, particularly white anxiety, are affecting how we govern our country. I think Trump is making us deal with this anxiety, and we will be the better for it. Hispanic, Black and Asian Americans, are Americans, living, going to school, working, raising kids, etc, just like while Americans. Immigrants are doing the same thing. We are all here, and no one is leaving. Yes, the country is becoming brown, but it is the same country, and we are all changing together. More discourse on this subject will help alleviate the anxiety some feel. So, while I applaud the topic, I differ with the author on approach. We don't have to pretend it may or may not happen, but rather how we are going to live together in a modern America as it does. I am pretty sure that the zenophobic sentiment will fade over time, and the "populist" reaction will be exposed for what it really is, but elevating the topic to a real discussion vs fear mongering is critical.
Blue state (Here)
I don't think that the reduction in the need for labor is going away any time soon, so immigration (illegal, H1B) and outsourcing are going to remain very sore points.
Andy (Salt Lake City, UT)
Race is a social construct. Race does not biologically exist. If you look at the Hindu caste system, the "whiteness" Prof. Gans mentions is manifest in the caste system. A dark skinned Bhramin is often considered white where as a light skinned Sudra is comparatively black. I don't even remember how many words for race the Brazilian Portuguese once employed. I think the lexicon numbered somewhere up around the Inuit vocabulary for snow.

In which case, of course race ties more closely to identity and possesses temporal flexibility. The only question is whether circumstances permit an individual's identity to be optional or whether the identity is always ascribed. I believe black Americans are the quintessential example of an ascribed identity in the U.S. Native Americans are in the running as well though.

You can't expect a tedious and occasional survey questionnaire to accurately reflect these nuances. The survey design alone can catastrophically misrepresent the reality before an analyst even looks at the print out. Statistical methodology not withstanding, this opinion is actually an indictment of the entire process.
Ambrose (New York)
"Right wing hysteria" is a little over the top. The predictions of changing demographics did lead to a complacency among Democrats who assumed they'd not have to fight a hard national election again. We all know what resulted from that complacency.
Lawrence Brown (Newton Centre, MA)
The so-called "browning" of the United States does not concern me and, as Mr. Gans' article indicates, these immigrants are becoming Americans just as millions of previous newcomers have been acculturated. This process of becoming an American is inextricably woven with adopting American democratic values of decency, honesty and the dignity of each individual.
What I am most troubled by is the recent importation of "values" by the Trump administration that are substantially at odds with American ideals and the sense of fairness. His comfort with dictators and strongmen, the absolute disdain for the truth, the rampant dishonesty, nepotism and race baiting are disgusting and polluting of what has made our country the envy of the world. He has degraded and humiliated our country and I would sooner welcome 1000 Mexicans or Syrians who are drawn here by our values and will work hard to get ahead than another wealthy Republican Congressman pillaging our nation.
Susan Fitzwater (Ambler, PA)
I am a retired high school teacher. I taught in Philadelphia for fifteen years. Most of the kids I taught were black.

Some were Hispanic.

Hispanic kids were NEVER considered --or called--white. I have never understood this.

Case in point. Years ago, I was talking with the kids in my class. One young lady was holding forth about some social function she'd attended. "Oh those WHITE people!" she exclaimed. "So hard to get along with! So disagreeable sometimes!" I gave her a long hard look.

"So-and-so," I finally said (not her real name)--"you're whiter than I am." (Hey! by the way, I'm a white person.) For a long minute she glared at me. She said nothing. Eventually the discussion moved on to something else.

Later (over drinks in a bar) I told a colleague what I'd said. And by the way--the colleague is Indian by birth. Dark-skinned. She stared at me in horror.

"Oh you didn't!" she exclaimed. "You didn't really say that!" But I DID say that. It was then the thought occurred to me:

I simply do not understand racial politics in this country anymore. I'm doing my best, Mr. Gans--I'm doing my best. But I'm not there yet. Not yet.
jp (MI)
@Susan: Apparently at some point in the last 100 years or Spain and Portugal have been annexed by Africa.
Dan (All Over)
Race isn't the major issue that will drive the divisions in our future. The major division in our country has been and will continue to increasingly be Socio-Economic Status.

SES differences are not just income-based, or color-of-skin based, but are attitudinal and values based. That difference will create a lot of what would appear to now be strange bed fellows.
Thomas Wright (Los Angeles)
I strongly reject and resent the notion expressed in this article. The census did not "unintentionally increased racism"; It simply served to antagonize racists who were already existent. Why else would they be so infuriated by a demographic change that makes non-Hispanic whites a (large) ethnic minority rather than a ethnic majority?

The very idea that non-Hispanic whites have reason to become alarmed about this in itself has racist undertones.
Jim (Phoenix)
The whole notion of majority-minority is flawed and is a result of development of new census categories, eg, Hispanic, than a sea change in the population. Are the majority of Hispanic immigrants really different from Italian immigrants. Are Mexican Catholics really different from Irish Catholics... depends on which Mexicans you're talking about. It's forgotten now but there used to be a strong bond between Ireland and Spain. An Irish general in the Spanish army founded Tucson, AZ. Mexico's 39th president was Alvaro Obregon. Obregon is the Spanish version of O'Brien. Never mind Numantia. And even before the great immigration from Latin America, many more Americans than commonly understood had Native American ancestors.
Doug (Baltimore, MD)
I hope by 2040 we have grown up enough to stop this "racial" bean-counting and all just be Americans, defined by shared values and a shared place in an ever-longer common history of a people descended from diverse peoples from around the world. The argument Prof. Gans makes seems to equate being American with being "white": immigrants and their descendants in whole or in part from areas outside of western Europe are not becoming "white", they are becoming American and enriching our culture in the process.
Michael (Dutton, Michigan)
"In this way, the census may have unintentionally increased white racism..."

No, Mr. Gans, the Census Bureau did not increase white racism, unintentionally or otherwise.

Giving to the noun, racism, the power of action is not realistic. Racism, after all, can be defined as a belief that race accounts for differences in human character or ability and that a particular race is superior to others. Not an action. Action comes from humans interpretation of their beliefs. In my view, racist tendencies are increased by changes in demographics, not created by them. The racists will feel increases in their own self-created paranoia when confronted with the reality of change.

This is all about human behavior, not demographics. Racists will take any opportunity to "prove" or "show" that they are being trod upon and their feeling of superiority, like the feelings of our president, are not amenable to criticism OR change. Us old white guys will soon enough no longer be dominant. That is a very scary proposition for the racists among us.
Blue state (Here)
This is all terribly sad. Race is a construct. Skin color does not announce 'goodness'. Purity is not a value. Culture does matter but color does not indicate culture. We need to get along. We need to have fewer of us cluttering the planet. We need people to have meaningful, healthy lives. We need everyone to have enough money, not a few hoarding most of it, just to keep an economy going. Please can we stop talking about race, and other slice and dice, and return to Dr. MLK's assertion that there is no justice without economic justice?
mary (<br/>)
My grand daughter is Native American, Asian, Norwegian, and Irish. The census will say she is white, but she and her family identify with immigrants and people of color. Since Trump's election we are wary of white people. 40% pro-Trump is a lot of white people.
Louisa (New York)
There is a lot of good information here.

But anxiety about race isn't just a function of skin tone. It's also a complex mix of education, money, and culture.

Some towns on Long Island are now majority Hispanic. The changes include old Victorian houses subdivided into apartments for multiple families and strained educational resources.

There are regions of many cities such as Miami and Los Angeles where you'll have a tough time if you don't speak Spanish. If you remember those places before the dominance of Hispanic culture, it could well cause some anxiety if you consider those changes on a nationwide basis.

A lot can and will change in the coming decades, including our population mix and how we see ourselves. It doesn't mean things can't be good. but it's also no good to pretend it's not happening.
William Case (Texas)
Hispanics are an ethnic group, not a racial group. Actress Cameron Diaz is Hispanic.
Louisa (New York)
If you want to get right down to it, the whole concept of "Hispanic" was invented.

But you're right, I should have said "ethnic and racial groups."
GC (Brooklyn)
Louisa, Spanish is a European language, a white colonial language. Many of the places where you cite the predominance of Hispanic culture goes back hundreds of years to Spanish colonization of the Americas. Dial it back 100 years and you sound like the white Americans who were afraid of Italians, Jews, and Slavs tainting their lily white pond with their foreign ways, their tendency to live among one another, and their unwillingness to assimilate. It seemed like a real threat to people then, but now, it almost seems laughable (to most of us, perhaps, but maybe not to the hard core racists). And, now we recycle the same language used 100 years ago and apply it to the dominant immigrant groups today. When will Americans ever learn?
Constance Warner (Silver Spring, MD)
The county where I live has been majority-minority since 2011, and we’re all pretty normal here. So if the whole country becomes majority-minority in the future, that would be just fine with me. It’s certainly no big deal.
Achilles (Tenafly, NJ)
"Whites First" is definitely not a good policy, or good politics. But Mr. Gans seems to overlook the trend on the Left towards a "Non-Coastal Whites Last" policy, which will get you a n occasional President Trump and permanent loss of at least the Senate.
John (Toronto)
There is a sizeable population that believes that you are not welcome in the Democratic Party unless you are a gay African-American who is enthusiastic about killing babies.

Say that is nonsense all you like, but that perception exists. For many white Americans, the Democrats are not even an option. That's a problem.

Along with the Senate, a large number of state houses will remain in the hands of the GOP unless this perception is changed. With control of state governments comes the ability to gerrymander and appoint Secretaries of State who will tilt the playing field in a direction that favors the Republican Party.
GRH (New England)
It's a strange time in American politics but even gay African-Americans are now being pushed out of the Democratic Party, for example, if one supports former African-American Congresswoman Barbara Jordan's tremendous leadership of Bill Clinton's Bipartisan Commission on Immigration and its conclusions that the US must have credible immigration law to serve the American interest and must enforce it.
Oliver (New York, NY)
I would amend that to poor whites in general
David (Wisconsin)
Professor Gans makes a compelling case that race is a largely social construct.
Fry (Sacramento, CA)
Hardly a revolutionary idea. "Race" is basically impossible to define biologically, but that doesn't change the fact that the social definition is very powerful.
QED (NYC)
In that case, maybe we no longer need to be collecting data on it or making policies that are racially oriented, like affirmative action.
Riley Temple (Washington, DC)
Of course it is a social construct. Whiteness did not exist prior to the European immigration to North America, accompanied by their importation of Africans and the economic need for the growth of the African slave population. It was then that whiteness became a necessity in order to distinguish the black African in the social order as being "less than human." Thomas Jefferson writes of this reasoning in his singular book, Notes on the State of Virginia.
FH (Boston)
When I was growing up in Brooklyn, the dark-skinned immigrants speaking a foreign tongue were Italians. They won us over (begrudgingly for my father) with great food, hard work and being really good neighbors and nice people. In the 50's, members of my extended Irish family risked being disowned by marrying Italians and Jews. It took another generation to get African Americans and Native Americans into the mix of our family. If we are lucky, we will live long enough to see the true benefits of living in this "melting pot." Given Mr. Trump's propensity for dividing people, that may take a little bit longer...but I think we are ultimately still on track to become gown-ups.
Lennerd (Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam)
My late dad, physician and avid flower and vegetable gardener, used to remark on the value of genetic mixes with the phrase, "hybrid vigor."

FH, your family sounds like the United Nations that I'm proud to say my family is, too. The Europeans in my family tree came from Ireland, England, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Switzerland. The Asians come from India, China, Thailand, Korea, and the Philippines. We've got those hard workers and cosmopolitan outlooks around the Thanksgiving table because, well, we are all Americans now.
Jen Rob (Washington, DC)
There is an aspiration to whiteness among ethnic populations. Groups who can be afforded the designation of, "white," will gladly take on that label in this country because of the privilege that comes with that designation.

The underlying problem with our society is that it was built on the premise of white supremacy and superiority. It is why Donald Trump was able to tap into the white working class's fear that other non-deserving people are taking away their economic livelihood.

In truth, wealth is becoming so concentrated at the top that we ordinary people have to fight for a smaller share of the pie. And while being white has advantages, it is no guarantee of success, particularly if you're not born into wealth.

Big business and the elite will continue to exploit racist sentiments and convince people that free-market, tax-cutting, small-government Republicans have their best interests at heart because they want to build walls, ban Muslims, establish "law and order" in the inner city and restore white people to their rightful place in the social hierarchy.

Perhaps the nation will not be majority people of color by the 2040s. But if the Congress, White House, governors' mansions and legislatures continue to be dominated by the radical right wing, we will enshrine and establish more policies that ensure an even greater concentration of wealth at the top and a massive underclass that will be majority white, black, and everything in between.
Todd Stuart (Key West, fl)
The piece lines up with an issue I have with the term "people of color". It is used to describe everyone who is isn't white as if they are one group. That term actually covers many groups who seem at first glance to have nothing in common other than not being or identifying as white. To treat them as one monolithic group suggests that the uniting factor must be victimization at the hands of whites.
Lamont MacLemore (Kingston, PA)
"To treat them as one monolithic group suggests that the uniting factor must be victimization at the hands of whites."

That _is_ the uniting factor. That's why the Klan no longer targets white-ethnic Catholics.
bwise (Portland, Oregon)
yes. An old Star Trek Voyager episode had aliens that described humans of grey bags of mostly water.
Fortress America (New York)
The director of the census just quit.

One more draining of one more mini swamp
=
It will take two years to even start to evaluate the damage of the last eight
Robert Thomas (San Diego)
Hysteria is right! If you're self-assured, why would that even make any difference?
Casual Observer (Los Angeles CA)
Race does not exist, biologically, characteristics associated with race do exist but people who have those characteristics share more of all of their other characteristics with more people with other racial characteristics than with people who share those racial characteristics. What race represents is a notion invented to explain how groups who are dominating people with differing racial characteristics are doing so because of nature. People who share one's desires to live in society where all are treated equally and given equal freedom to be themselves and to prosper and to improve themselves socially can consist of people with every racial characteristic. People who would be content having no freedom as individuals but who belong to a country where all look alike and try to conform to the same beliefs and preferences are the characteristics of those who worry about whether "white people" will or will not be in the majority.
William Case (Texas)
It's the difference in physical appearances that constitutes race. Now that the human genome has been unraveled, we understand how combinations of genes make racial characteristics inheritable. There is great deal of overlapping and genetic mixing. The problem with race is the importance some people attached to it.
Bklynbrn (San Francisco)
As a community college history instructor in the Bay Area, I've seen whites, especially white males who are very angry about what they feel is the 'browning of America.' My understanding, and please correct me if I am wrong, is that the idea of race is a social construct, not a biological construct. The word has been used incorrectly for decades. Yet, my white students either don't understand the concept, or don't want to hear it. They are deaf to the phrase, White Privilege, and honestly, don't even want to discuss it.
Open discussion and communication is the first step to understanding these ideas. Knowledge is power; and knowing something about this issue will help not make individuals so paranoid or fearful.
Linda (New York)
Ironic for Brklynbrn to to discuss race as social construct and then launch into a tirde about "white, male students." I wonder if this Brooklynite actually listens to her or his community college students. Perhaps the students do not buy into "white privilege" because they are not actually significantly privileged; perhaps they have seen their families struggle and continue to struggle. The fact that this instructor employs the overworked catchphrase of the moment, "white privilege" to try to understand complex social issues, and then describes the students as "deaf" -- rather than considering that they may disagree, is disturbing.

Where is it coming from? I blame the media, which has legitimized the kind of narrowness, close-mindedness and bigotry this Brooklynite displays.
Jim (Phoenix)
Maybe you should find out about your white students first before you start lecturing them about "white privilege." In some of our university classes, and I have this on good authority, "discussion" means "you listen" while I denounce your parents and grandparents. Moreover, while there is a very good case for the problem of institutional racism, that applies mostly to black people subject to slavery and segregation. Recent immigrants are in fact more privileged than European immigrants of the past who labor experiences were awful and whose children lacked access to health care and public education we have today. Calvary Cemetery in New York City was built to bury the immigrant children killed by the city's water.
SteveRR (CA)
If race were simply a social construct then medical treatments and drugs would not have different effects by race.
This idea that physiology is race/genome-blind is simply false.
On another note, variation within racial groups are just as large as inter-racial differences.
R. Werdinger (Northern Cal.)
This article, in my opinion, heads in the right direction by backgrounding how whiteness is a cultural construct whose boundaries have shifted continually depending on cultural and political currents. Jews, Italians, and others from Southern and Eastern Europe were considered threats to whiteness 100 years ago--an idea that seems laughable, until recent movements in white supremacy brought it back. Whiteness has become a marker for who's the in-group and, by extension, who is an outsider--not any reliable biological marker. Until we thoroughly investigate and explode this--much as feminists and GLBT activists are exploding the concepts of male and female-- we will continue to misuse the word and perpetuate an ill-begotten concept. Census data won't matter if people are afraid of change.
J. G. Smith (Ft Collins, CO)
THANK YOU for this enlightening article. I have been complaining about some of the mistakes you point out for a long time! My only hope is that the media reads and learns from your article and stops passing on wrong information....and my hope is that the pollsters also read this article and stop grouping people together who should be polled as separate. Again...excellent article and thank you!!
tomreel (Norfolk, VA)
This column was interesting and edifying. Perceived problems about interpreting demographic projections seem to arise not from facts but rather from definitions and misunderstandings.

If a summary of definitions (like the explanation in the column) is included when projections are made, that will go a long way toward educating everyone about identifying groups, especially mixed-race groups which are becoming more and more common.

I don't think the Census needs to explain how the country may be expected to integrate or absorb "nonwhite" people. Such expectations may be part of the political discussion but they are not facts and the Census should stick to what is known statistically (including trends) and avoid guesses about how people may identify (themselves or others) going forward.

The data are not causing a problem. It is misunderstanding the information or politicizing it that causes problems. For example, the use of the words "Right-Wing Hysteria" in the title of the column is loaded language. I am hardly right-wing on any subject, but if I were moderately right of center I might resent the implication that I am hysterical about the demographic changes we are experiencing in this century. As Joe Friday might put it, "...just the facts, ma'am."
DR (upstate NY)
In other words, the same process that was going on 200 years ago is still going on. In the early 19thc, the Irish were literally called the "Black Irish," an unacceptable class of immigrants because of their Catholicism and extreme poverty. Now the Irish are whiter than white, as are Italians (Sicilians, in particular, used to be viewed as "nonwhite"); Jews, once an "oriental race," are now "white"; and the list goes on. Any group that intermarries and makes it into the economic mainstream (not in that order) becomes "white." Except, of course, black people.
Chris (NYC)
In America, whiteness is not just attained by economics and appearances. First and foremost, you need to distance yourself from black people. We saw that with the Irish, Italians and finally Jewish folks (they used to be very active in the Civil Rights Movement before falling out with blacks and fully joining White America).
Ecce Homo (Jackson Heights, NY)
"Black Irish" did not refer to Irish people generally, but to Irish people with darker hair and in some cases darker skin than was typical. There are a number of theories to explain this genetic variation, some involving intermarriage with traders or other immigrants from Iberia.

Still, your basic point is correct, that Irish immigrants were not initially accepted as equals by the white Anglo-Saxon Protestant majority in this country. My own Irish ancestors changed their last name from McMullen to Mullen to reduce the obviousness of their Irish heritage.

That said, the author's suggestion that descendants of non-European groups will increasingly be accepted by white Americans remains to be seen. Although white America has indeed expanded its acceptance of European-descended groups, white America has never managed to accept Americans whose immigrant ancestors were not from Europe - not even Hispanic Americans who are largely or even entirely descended from Europeans.

I don't personally put great hope in white people's ability to expand our scope of acceptance - even the author's rose-colored glasses leave out the darkest-skinned among us. Instead, quite frankly, I put my hope in the majority-minority prediction, and in my hope that today's minorities will bring more compassion to governing white people than we have ever brought to governing them.

politicsbyeccehomo.wordpress.com
Historian (Aggieland, TX)
I've been saying this for at least a decade: This talk about an impending “majority-minority” society is perhaps literally true, but its implications are overblown by the fearmongers on the right and the self-important, and often self-appointed, ethnic leaders on the left. The American mainstream is as seductive as ever, and so-called minorities beyond the immigrant generation are abandoning their ancestral languages and identifying with the mainstream and increasingly marrying into it as well.
Lamont MacLemore (Kingston, PA)
"The American mainstream is as seductive as ever, and so-called minorities beyond the immigrant generation are abandoning their ancestral languages and identifying with the mainstream and increasingly marrying into it as well."

That is, the so-called "minorities"are turning themselves white. "Except, of course, black people," to coin a phrase.
ga (new york)
Excellent discussion that points to diversity within so called ethnic and racial groups as being important determinant along with economic status with regards to acceptance as/by ruling class. When I applied to college in the mid 1970's I would check "other" under racial classification and I would write in "socioeconomically deprived" since I was poor and grew up on welfare. I never identified with white anglo-saxon protestant even though I am white and grew up Catholic. Poor people who feel disenfranchised, whether they are black, white, hispanic, asian, or middle eastern often share more commonality and collective experience than they realize. This is one reason for recent populism of Bernie Sanders, also reason why Occupy Wall Street was dismantled.
JG (Denver)
Bernie Sanders would have been the perfect choice for president because he transcended race and privilege. When many Muslims chose to vote for him, a Jew ,I knew that he was the most acceptable of all candidates. His sense of fairness and authenticity is what people were looking for.
Puffin (Seattle, WA)
Professor Gans's analysis should lead people to question the usefulness of race as a concept. Many if not most anthropologists have long rejected it as anything meaningful.

When I read about the "whitening process," I recall how the Nazis obsessed over the metrics of true Aryaness. Do we really want to start down that road?
Lamont MacLemore (Kingston, PA)
I recall how the Americans, since 1619, have obsessed over the metrics of true whiteness.
Maxm (Redmond WA)
Maybe the census could just count people and constrain the seemingly ever growing list of personal attribute questions.
Blue state (Here)
I'd like to know who is here legally and who is not.
rella (VA)
Blue state: And you think the Census Bureau can provide an answer?
Maxm (Redmond WA)
Blue State: Me too. That is not a personal attribute in the racial/ethic slice and dice sense of the article.
Of course on the present administration's path no illegal will want to be found for a census so we may never know.
John (Norfolk)
There is absolutely no doubt that the “minority-majority” forecast fear played a pivotal role in the 2016 presidential election. After President Obama's two-term electoral success, Hillary Clinton's entire campaign strategy was to adopt Obama's “minority-majority” paradigm, most obvious in the South Carolina democratic primary when she grabbed onto those Obama third-term coattails to slaughter Bernie in the African-American voting precincts. Fearful “minority-majority” whites had no difficulty seeing the “minority-majority” queue filling up with the likes of Cory Booker and the Castro brothers. Democrats thought that they could replace the Mid-Western Blue Wall with a “minority-majority” wall, which turned out to be a colossal campaign strategy error. The future of American politics, if we survive Trump, will be very interesting.
DV Henkel-Wallace (Palo Alto, CA)
A lovely insightful article demonstrating the malleability of the whole conception of "race" and "culture.

I have experienced it personally: in the country of my birth I am nonwhite (legally so as a child, nowadays merely by convention); in the US I am a "white guy". Yet I am the same person!

(And when filling out forms that ask I am "decline to say"),
SR (Bronx, NY)
Mistake No. 4 has always baffled me. To say that I think carefully about what to put down for "race" and "Hispanic origin", and that I've wondered whether I should answer the question myself at all, would be an extreme understatement.

Perhaps a nonprofit genetics and sociology panel (not a for-profit "genealogy" website please, they'd probably boast in their ads about the "drop of Maya blood" they found in 2020 or whatnot) could consult with the counted. The logistics of getting that panel to the remote locations the Census travels would be a horror, mind.

Perhaps it's answered best of all by a Census-convened panel of KKK members, since they seem to be great at detecting any hint of taint that would keep one from government services and gainful employment. (After that November, in this post-AG Sessions world, I'm only half-joking sadly.)
Tim Lewis (Princeton, NJ)
Gans fails to mention that whites are not monolithic either. Not all whites think alike or want the same things and thus do not have the same power and influence as a unified majority would have. But the biggest flaw in the article is failure to the acknowledge that a sizable number of people in each of the various minority groups do appear to have something in common and that is the desire to play the victim and seek to extract money and other favors from the white population. As evidence, Asian Americans are the highest earning ethnic group in the country yet 70%+ voted for Clinton. And why do Democrats advocate so strongly for much more lenient immigration policies, when such policies demonstrably have a negative impact on union members and low skilled workers. These new arrivals will be reliable Democrat voters. So whites are not being alarmist when they express concern about their shrinking numbers. They are trying to protect their way of life and it is their absolute right to do so.
Historian (Aggieland, TX)
Once again, a Republican shedding crocodile tears over minorities allegedly harmed by immigration. Yet if you consult Pew polls, you find that blacks are more heavily in favor of legalizing the undocumented than the national average, and more opposed to Trump’s wall than even Hispanics. You want to see the “harm” done by immigration, look at West Virginia and Mississippi: two states with about the lowest percentage of immigrants and the highest percentage speaking English only. I’ve yet to hear another state governor saying they want to make their state more like these two; in fact, other low performing states have as their state motto, “Thank God for Mississippi.” You can debate whether immigration drives economic development or vice versa, but they clearly go hand in hand.
Blue state (Here)
Color really doesn't matter on the economic issues Tim Lewis raises, but citizenship does. White blue collar men have more in common with legal citizen blue collar men and women of color than they do with white men who own companies and sit on boards. Banding together with citizens of different races and the same economic status would be much more productive than worrying about color.
GRH (New England)
@Historian, West Virginia and Mississippi have always been among the poorest states. There are not enough jobs in either state (nor 1 per centers who want off-the-books nannies, gardeners, etc) to attract significant numbers of immigrants of whatever category, whether legal or illegal. Correlation is not causation.