An ounce of prevention... we are earning our inevitable extinction through our lack of foresight, addiction to instant gratification, and our preference for allowing problems to fester and grow to the point of no return rather than working to prevent them.
5
Climate deniers are stupid capitalists who fail to understand that you can save the planet and still make money. They need to stop embracing the fatalistic idea that it's all about losing with no returns. The engine of growth is unsustainable in it's current form and headed for disaster. Sacrificing now through investing in innovations is not only good for the future bottom line but for all of America, even the world as well.
6
The list should include Central America, where climate change will produce more frequent droughts and heat waves. Much of the population in those countries depend on small farms and traditional crops such as coffee. They'll be heading this way as farming fails.
3
Since the advent of the industrial revolution until now scientists say we burnt 2,000 billion tons of carbon driving the planetary temperature up by 1.2 degrees Celsius. That is dangerously close to the 1.5-degree limit that scientists say we dare not exceed and look at the rapid increase in global extreme weather events we are already experiencing. If burning 2,000 billion tons of carbon increased the planetary temperature to 1.2 degree Celsius we can only burn another 473 billion tons of carbon to get us to the 1.5-degree level. The critical issue that is being ignored is, right now we have 2,795 billion tons of carbon in inventory ready to burn – that’s 6 times more fossil fuel than we can afford to burn and expect to survive. If we burn that much it may drive the planetary temperature as high as 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 degrees Fahrenheit) rendering the planet uninhabitable for many creatures, including us. We must leave carbon in the ground or humans won’t be around.
1
That is just what we need. Another excuse for human migration. Well don't come here. Go to Russia or Northern Europe. It is nice and cold there.
2
Don't worry, we'll make sure to trade you for Syrian so there's no net population gain.
2
There is a feeling of helplessness among Trumpistas and in the general population. Scientists warned of this a long time ago but no one in power listened nor corporations. Now the race is on but this time we have a climate change denier in office. Instead of implementing plans for our future we continue to fight the corporations and leaders that we have not gained any ground. What choice do we have but to do it ourselves. The beauty about America is that anyone can build an idea and make it happen. It must start here because whether we like it or not, the world follows our lead. Fight King Trump with a counter idea that creates more impact than his tweets and executive orders. King Trump is King in his head only let us keep him there and we will do everything we can to secure our future. This is a simplistic solution, King Trump can make a major mistake, but we are Americans innovation is our middle name and rebellion is always in our hearts.
4
"A Warming Planet Drives Human Migration" ? Where's the article on: "5 Billion Increase in Human Population Since 1950 Drives Human Migration" ?
16
add population growth to this discussion, esp. the seemingly uncontrolled growth in those nations that can ill support such populations, and the resulting migration will likely lead Europe and the US towards even more resistance to immigration. Birth control should be a top priority and made a condition of foreign aid.
15
And still no mention of cutting the exploding human population. Here's a solution - less humans.
13
Less dangerous humans.
1
Could this angle get Trump's attention? He is concerned about immigration after all.
Global Warming ... of course like almost everything else yet another NY Times propaganda meme/excuse to justify mass immigration into the USA and Europe! Now we are morally obligated to give up our citizen sovereignty rights to democracy and self determination, in order to supply the 3% business owner nobility with yet more 10's of millions of low-wage slaves via mass immigration, because of global warming. Mass migration can just as easily be explained by out of control population growth that our greedy elites have also encouraged in order to gain more customers and to flood labor markets in defiance of carrying capacity and ecosystem sustainability. Another factor that can explain mass migration is that American and European elites greedy for more bodies to exploit have failed to enforce immigration laws and propaganda recruited a flood of foreign workers via all manner of intended to be abused "student", "visitor" and "temporary visa" visas programs. The global 1% has completely corrupted and destroyed the moral obligation of world citizens to stay home and work and fight to make their societies decent places to live by encouraging and fostering a global selfish of "go for the money" 3rd world culture of emigration.
6
Great article if not a bit short. Here in Fort Lauderdale we are already raising bridges ant heightening sea walls has been now ordered for properties on the water (including on the many canals). Over 100 wild fires are now raging in our state and a state of emergency has been declared. In the western part of the USA drought and brush fires are changing lives. This is not just a problem in other countries.
7
(human turmoil vs climate turmoil)
"The correlation is striking. " says the intro.
--Well, looking at the map, it is not striking at all.
I dare say I do not see such a correlation.
"The correlation is striking. " says the intro.
--Well, looking at the map, it is not striking at all.
I dare say I do not see such a correlation.
1
I agree .....
Human factors which cause climate change are also more direct contributors to resource shortages. Much of northern and eastern Africa has been so severely overgrazed by livestock that soils have washed away, leaving bare rock and sand that supports no life. What was an ordinary dry season fifty years ago is now a catastrophic 'drought' and famine because no grass survives the wet season to keep stock alive once the rains end. The carbon stored in those soils has been released to the atmosphere, adding greatly to the CO2 from fossil fuel use. The same thing happened long ago in the Middle East and Central Asia, more recently in the American Southwest and Mexico. Most people are aware that cutting forests has made a major contribution to atmospheric CO2, but the impact of overgrazing and consequent soil loss deserves much greater attention.
8
I'm a how naturalist and science writer, and have noticed (like many others) how phenological markers, such as the return of certain songbirds, or the first leaves to open every spring, have been changing. But less known is how many species, when they find the conditions too hot for them, have been slowly extending or moving their habitat range away from the equator. (In the northern hemisphere, that means going further north, of course.)
The comparable phenomenon for alpine species is to go further up the mountain. In both cases, there's only so far they can go!
It struck me while reading this article, then the comments, that human residents of warm zones are already following their nonhuman counterparts. They are largely fleeing their homes, damaged in some way by climate change and its repercussions, for refuge in cooler and less disrupted nations.
Unfortunately for them, and for those who don't want to share with them, those nations are, by and large, in the so-called developed world. Which mostly got rich *because* it exploited the lush natural resources - and cheap labor - of those very nations now in trouble.
Time for the chickens to come home to roost.
The Chinese "May you live in interesting times" is meant as a curse for a good reason.
The comparable phenomenon for alpine species is to go further up the mountain. In both cases, there's only so far they can go!
It struck me while reading this article, then the comments, that human residents of warm zones are already following their nonhuman counterparts. They are largely fleeing their homes, damaged in some way by climate change and its repercussions, for refuge in cooler and less disrupted nations.
Unfortunately for them, and for those who don't want to share with them, those nations are, by and large, in the so-called developed world. Which mostly got rich *because* it exploited the lush natural resources - and cheap labor - of those very nations now in trouble.
Time for the chickens to come home to roost.
The Chinese "May you live in interesting times" is meant as a curse for a good reason.
8
Tripling the populations of underdeveloped countries has nothing to do with human migration?
Somalia
1950: 2,264,000 growth rate: 1.9 percent
1995: 6,346,000 growth rate: 2.1 percent
2017: 11,392,000 growth rate: 2.87 percent
South Sudan
1950: 2,583,000 growth rate: 0.71 percent
1995: 5,452,771 growth rate: 2.38 percent
2017: 13,096,190 growth rate: 2.58 percent
Nigeria
1950: 38,000,000 growth rate: 1.50 percent
1995: 108,425,000 growth rate: 2.50 percent
2016: 187,000,000 growth rate: 2.53 percent
Somalia
1950: 2,264,000 growth rate: 1.9 percent
1995: 6,346,000 growth rate: 2.1 percent
2017: 11,392,000 growth rate: 2.87 percent
South Sudan
1950: 2,583,000 growth rate: 0.71 percent
1995: 5,452,771 growth rate: 2.38 percent
2017: 13,096,190 growth rate: 2.58 percent
Nigeria
1950: 38,000,000 growth rate: 1.50 percent
1995: 108,425,000 growth rate: 2.50 percent
2016: 187,000,000 growth rate: 2.53 percent
17
No one is saying that increased population has nothing to do with changing human migration patterns. However, this article is about how changing environmental factors are impacting human migration. You'd need several articles to cover all the relevant points, this is one piece of the pie.
5
We have used this beautiful green and blue earth as our toilet for a few hundred years, and now we will slowly die in our own filth.
Sounds brutal and dirty, doesn't it? Yeah, well, that's the way it is.
Sounds brutal and dirty, doesn't it? Yeah, well, that's the way it is.
18
there is the arugement, people of one nation must remain in that nation and resolve it problems. Over population is not solved by moving people that the land will not sustain to another country. Note weather changes is not the only cause of overpoplation. China has withdrawn from the state enforced populatin issues. Whee will its ecess men, yes men, first, then woem go. Human rights has meet human survival.
4
Americans are worried about the southern border. Wait until the tropics become uninhabitable and Central America empties into Mexico and Mexico empties into the US. Wait till it's 160 million people staging a blitz on the border.
11
Maybe a wall will help?
1
It can't hoit!
Birth control on a personal and societal (worldwide) level is the only way to solve this problem. On an individual level, having no kids is a double bonus: you are helping the planet and you have no "genes" in the game no matter what happens down the line. Besides, why worry about global warming, when another Ice Age is just beyond that? Billions of people across the globe are not worrying about it or are scratching out a daily existence just to survive. In the U.S., we don't have the stomach to live within our means on any level (approaching $20 trillion in government debt, along with trillions in credit card, home loan, and student loan debt), so why would we have the foresight to invest in something that we may never see have any effect? Our selfishness will be our demise.
12
I agree.
Too bad that anyone who does try to help ease the problem - or at least contribute to it as little as humanly possible - will get dragged down by all those who either don't think there's a problem, or who have no choice in how they live. The ratio of first to second is just too low.
I'm sure glad I don't have kids, but I still weep for all the ones already here or still arriving.
Too bad that anyone who does try to help ease the problem - or at least contribute to it as little as humanly possible - will get dragged down by all those who either don't think there's a problem, or who have no choice in how they live. The ratio of first to second is just too low.
I'm sure glad I don't have kids, but I still weep for all the ones already here or still arriving.
6
As a political issue I'd put climate change at a 10 on the usual 1 to 10 scale of importance.
Trump, ISIS, transgender bathrooms, anything else you want to name I put at 1 or fractions of 1.
Not saying I favor any particular approach or solution because I do not KNOW the solution. The only thing I'm sure of is that it's important. A solid 10.
Trump, ISIS, transgender bathrooms, anything else you want to name I put at 1 or fractions of 1.
Not saying I favor any particular approach or solution because I do not KNOW the solution. The only thing I'm sure of is that it's important. A solid 10.
12
Your assessment of the importance of climate change is entirely correct, but it has only gone this far because it is not a political issue for most people. In our last election only Bernie talked about it. Even this newspaper of record seems more interested in transgender politics than the death of Earth's ecosystems.
4
Anyone who does not believe the unsustainable growth of human populations has nothing whatsoever to do with climate change is a climate change denier, simple as that.
18
From the NASA Common Sense Climate Index:
"Note
The original development of these CSCI webpages was discontinued in 1999. … No figures incorporating moisture data were shown. ..."
I picked an observation station close to where the circled 1 is. (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show.cgi?id=3038258600... Temperatures at that site have increased by 2 degrees F over the last 110 years. And, the rate of change has been constant over that period (although perhaps decreasing over the last 30 years.) In the period since 1960, the increase has been 1 deg F. Which climate model predicts disastrous effects with 1 degree of temperature change?
The around 1 is very densely red. The number of observing stations in that region: Three. (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/csci/stations/)
From the article: "In 2007, eastern Syria — along with Turkey, northern Iraq and western Iran — entered a three-year drought, the region’s worst since scientists began measuring them." grotesquely mischaracterizes the NYT article to which the embedded link points.
This article is rubbish. Unfortunately, the 1500 character limit is getting in the way of fully describing how rubbishy it is.
"Note
The original development of these CSCI webpages was discontinued in 1999. … No figures incorporating moisture data were shown. ..."
I picked an observation station close to where the circled 1 is. (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/stdata_show.cgi?id=3038258600... Temperatures at that site have increased by 2 degrees F over the last 110 years. And, the rate of change has been constant over that period (although perhaps decreasing over the last 30 years.) In the period since 1960, the increase has been 1 deg F. Which climate model predicts disastrous effects with 1 degree of temperature change?
The around 1 is very densely red. The number of observing stations in that region: Three. (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/csci/stations/)
From the article: "In 2007, eastern Syria — along with Turkey, northern Iraq and western Iran — entered a three-year drought, the region’s worst since scientists began measuring them." grotesquely mischaracterizes the NYT article to which the embedded link points.
This article is rubbish. Unfortunately, the 1500 character limit is getting in the way of fully describing how rubbishy it is.
3
Jeff Guinn, regarding rubbish:
1- Why do you say the increase at the Quixeramobim station is 2° F when the chart is very clearly labeled as using °C and the anomaly range looks a bit more than 2°C? (2°C is 3.6°F, by the way)
2- why do you say 110 years when the data goes back 121 years?
3- why do you make arm-waving statements about rate of change that appear to be incorrect when the data is downloaded and examined? For one thing, the warming seems faster since 1960 than over the full 121 years.
Why do you mischaracterize the NYTimes article about the Syria drought, too? That article links to the backing study paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241
Here's their Significance comment about the article:
"There is evidence that the 2007−2010 drought contributed to the conflict in Syria. It was the worst drought in the instrumental record, causing widespread crop failure and a mass migration of farming families to urban centers. Century-long observed trends in precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure, supported by climate model results, strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007−2010 2 to 3 times more likely than by natural variability alone. We conclude that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict."
1- Why do you say the increase at the Quixeramobim station is 2° F when the chart is very clearly labeled as using °C and the anomaly range looks a bit more than 2°C? (2°C is 3.6°F, by the way)
2- why do you say 110 years when the data goes back 121 years?
3- why do you make arm-waving statements about rate of change that appear to be incorrect when the data is downloaded and examined? For one thing, the warming seems faster since 1960 than over the full 121 years.
Why do you mischaracterize the NYTimes article about the Syria drought, too? That article links to the backing study paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Science
http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241
Here's their Significance comment about the article:
"There is evidence that the 2007−2010 drought contributed to the conflict in Syria. It was the worst drought in the instrumental record, causing widespread crop failure and a mass migration of farming families to urban centers. Century-long observed trends in precipitation, temperature, and sea-level pressure, supported by climate model results, strongly suggest that anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007−2010 2 to 3 times more likely than by natural variability alone. We conclude that human influences on the climate system are implicated in the current Syrian conflict."
6
Humanity is finished.
5
It's not too late to visit your nearest family-planning clinic, not just yet.
6
Does Trump know that a severe drought in Syria helped kick off their civil war? I doubt it. And BTW, did Lord Dampnut tell the president of China on his recent visit here to knock off the climate change hoax? I never heard.
4
warming planet is important, it trumps Trump himself.
1
Overpopulation is driving these crisis', and yet that still at this late date remains an unspeakable taboo. The article sites how global warming will aggrevate them, but it ignores much of the primary cause. If the earth had around 2 billion people instead of 8, a dryer warmer world would still be a huge problem, but it wouldn't be a catastrophy. I believe every last detail about global warming and am all for talking about it all the time, but can we please stop ignoring that overpopulation is eating up all the fish, cutting down all the forests, burning all the oil and causing the animals to go extinct. We have the scientific means to stop overpopulation — birth control. Its a perfect solution and science has given it to us to address our biggest problem — our species fertility. Still we always defer and ignore it inorder to avoid offending the religious people. ENOUGH! Offend them, again and again. Save the planet.
31
I agree.
It seems to be the last taboo, even more than telling people what to eat or not eat.
It seems to be the last taboo, even more than telling people what to eat or not eat.
1
Religion does shout down discussion of overpopulation, but so does politics.
Bring up population control and the left screams Racism as loudly as the right screams Baby Killer.
Bring up population control and the left screams Racism as loudly as the right screams Baby Killer.
6
"Increase, multiply, and fill the Earth!"-Genesis Old Testament
And then what God?
God: Hmnn, haven't worked that out yet.
And then what God?
God: Hmnn, haven't worked that out yet.
2
Wait a minute, draw in the equatorial line and notice where the red dots are dense. Why is that?
1
Why isn't the rest of the planet putting pressure on TRUMP, on this country??? We share this planet, we don't own it. How dare we reopen our coal mines and reverse all the progress that's been made?? I for one will never buy a car from a car manufacturer who reverses emission standards to make a few more bucks per car. What will these refugee hating Republicans do when masses of people push through that BIG WALL at the Mexican border (whatever happened to that project?) in pursuit of water?
2
Malthus was correct in princille, tho his timing was off.
5
As long as the target migration nation isn't the US, have at it.
I agree with others in wondering why there are so few comments here, especially given the NYT readership. Are we so addicted to the latest stupidities of the political circus that we no longer have time to consider the great undercurrents of change that are going to really shape the future. It would seem that we are content to just keep rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.
5
Malcom, I respectfully concur! It seems in the age of selfies & celebrities everything is more important than the environment (and in last consequence mankind), which is confronted with really disturbing challenges.
2
Malcolm, my first comments on several of the articles were sitting in limbo for two days before they appeared on Saturday. Perhaps that explains the shortage if others were in the same situation.
Bravo to the Times for providing readers a scientifically-based series of informed articles on climate change. Now to get Americans to notice them. Please keep posting the link in the daily NY Times. That's how I found the series. Gotta go - I am starting today to look for an electric car and solar panels.
1
This is both old and fact. The big money knows what's forthcoming.
As once we were slaves to those who owned petroleum, we will be slave to the owners of water
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-new-water-barons-wall-street-mega-banks...
As once we were slaves to those who owned petroleum, we will be slave to the owners of water
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-new-water-barons-wall-street-mega-banks...
6
This reporting shows shows once again the bad faith and self-deception of Trump's immigration policies. Climate change is making large areas of Mexico unlivable, and soon climate refugees will attempt to cross the Rio Grande into Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas, states which the United States seized in our war with Mexico in 1848. We have a moral obligation to permit these refugees entry.
2
So the Mexicans deserve no blame for overpopulating, over logging and overgrazing their own land? They don't burn fossil fuels? Our Southwest would have fared better had it remained part of Mexico?
5
Good points all but we should not forget that we have disproportionately contributed to climate change. We were the world's biggest polluter for decades. We have the developed world 's only major political party that denies climate science. Don't forget this, because the rest of the work will not.
2
The Big Distraction right in front of our noses: Climate Change. Instead of going after the causes directly and relentlessly, we have been wasting precious time debating the issue and focusing on adaptation.
Polluting industries, household and industrial, habitat destruction, species devastation...are the causes. Not only are we allowing them continued business as usual, we're PAYING them to do so in subsidies and allowing laws to be written to protect them. IT IS SHEER MADNESS.
Polluting industries, household and industrial, habitat destruction, species devastation...are the causes. Not only are we allowing them continued business as usual, we're PAYING them to do so in subsidies and allowing laws to be written to protect them. IT IS SHEER MADNESS.
5
Beautiful and informative graphics. Looking forward to a similar graphic on how religiously-motivated restrictions to birth control end up degrading the local environment to the point that it is no longer sustainable. Thus, motivating many to migrate elsewhere in search of greener pastures.
12
It's not a secret that the world's climate problems will increase political tensions as well. Our military sees climate change as a significant security problem moving forward. So why are we so happy to remain ignorant and believe the climate deniers? Why do we continue to buy into sound bites and nonsense?
2
Wow way before these remote human disasters disturb our comfy little lives, the impacts here at home are going to do a number on:
Property values and hence the financial system (oceanfront real estate, the tourism industry, and let's be specific, Lower Manhattan, Miami, and much more to say nothing of the habitability of the southwest US)
The food system (drought, inadequate water supplies, a growing mismatch between pollinators and the bloom times of their food sources, etc)
As we learned in 2008, just one event can cascade the whole economy. And in 2008, we didn't even have civil disorder from internally displaced citizens to deal with.
The fact that I live a relatively safe 135 above sea level, on a rocky coast, is going to do nothing for me when the financial system I depend on goes down.
Property values and hence the financial system (oceanfront real estate, the tourism industry, and let's be specific, Lower Manhattan, Miami, and much more to say nothing of the habitability of the southwest US)
The food system (drought, inadequate water supplies, a growing mismatch between pollinators and the bloom times of their food sources, etc)
As we learned in 2008, just one event can cascade the whole economy. And in 2008, we didn't even have civil disorder from internally displaced citizens to deal with.
The fact that I live a relatively safe 135 above sea level, on a rocky coast, is going to do nothing for me when the financial system I depend on goes down.
3
For a generation that takes such great pains to plan estates, trusts and inheritances, one would think we would listen to the scientists. Instead we have been wasting time, energy and treasure rallying behind the fear itself party and its patrons worrying about cutting taxes and building walls. With a little more foresight and respect for future generations, we might save the most important item in the portfolio- a planet to inhabit.
2
According to the United Nations, a global shift toward a vegan diet is necessary to combat the worst effects of climate change. Well-meaning folks can comment and go on and on about science all they want, but when it comes to having a real impact on helping protect the environment and our natural resources, not eating animals is the most effective way, by far. There is no such things as a meat-eating environmentalist.
1
I wonder why the Pentagon, in its strategic planning, takes the problems associated with global climate change so very seriously.
Haven't the generals and admirals been listening to the politicians?
As Secretary of State Rex Tillerson so eloquently queried: "What good is it to save the planet if humanity suffers?”
What could possibly be more important then short term profits for the fossil fuel corporations and each individual American's sacred freedom to use all the energy he/she can afford?
Many Republicans in Congress, moreover, have assured us of the following:
There is no global climate change.
Even if there were such change, it is not due to human activity; and even if it were due to human agency, there is nothing we now can do about it; and even if there was something we mere mortals could do about it, it would cost too much to intervene; and even if it would not cost too much to intervene, why should we bother? It costs us absolutely nothing to just sit here and be flooded, swelter and fry. It is far more cost economically efficient just to sit here and endure the flooding, sweltering and frying as best we can.
Obviously, there is no need to pay any attention to those alarmist scientists and their rantings about some purported global climate change.
Besides, as the fundamentalist Christian Congressmen remind us, we are in the End Times anyway and we have known for millennia that the long scheduled Wrath would descend upon us.
Well, here and now it descends!
Haven't the generals and admirals been listening to the politicians?
As Secretary of State Rex Tillerson so eloquently queried: "What good is it to save the planet if humanity suffers?”
What could possibly be more important then short term profits for the fossil fuel corporations and each individual American's sacred freedom to use all the energy he/she can afford?
Many Republicans in Congress, moreover, have assured us of the following:
There is no global climate change.
Even if there were such change, it is not due to human activity; and even if it were due to human agency, there is nothing we now can do about it; and even if there was something we mere mortals could do about it, it would cost too much to intervene; and even if it would not cost too much to intervene, why should we bother? It costs us absolutely nothing to just sit here and be flooded, swelter and fry. It is far more cost economically efficient just to sit here and endure the flooding, sweltering and frying as best we can.
Obviously, there is no need to pay any attention to those alarmist scientists and their rantings about some purported global climate change.
Besides, as the fundamentalist Christian Congressmen remind us, we are in the End Times anyway and we have known for millennia that the long scheduled Wrath would descend upon us.
Well, here and now it descends!
1
The Army and Marines learned the hard way that dependence on fossil fuel is dangerous when Pakistan blocked fuel trucks into Afghanistan a few years back, putting our bases at risk.
The Navy knows that they can't move ports away from the ocean, so they're particularly at risk. That, plus deploying to the Persian Gulf for as long as oil is of strategic interest, means they suffer from fossil.
The Air Force knew about the cause of climate change back 60 years ago when they had to figure out how to get Sidewinder missiles and other targeting systems to see infrared heat while CO2 was blocking it at many wavelengths.
And the Coast Guard is facing an increasingly-busy Arctic coast, that will still freeze over in winters, yet Congress has been reluctant to add to our SINGLE nuclear ice-breaker "fleet".
The Navy knows that they can't move ports away from the ocean, so they're particularly at risk. That, plus deploying to the Persian Gulf for as long as oil is of strategic interest, means they suffer from fossil.
The Air Force knew about the cause of climate change back 60 years ago when they had to figure out how to get Sidewinder missiles and other targeting systems to see infrared heat while CO2 was blocking it at many wavelengths.
And the Coast Guard is facing an increasingly-busy Arctic coast, that will still freeze over in winters, yet Congress has been reluctant to add to our SINGLE nuclear ice-breaker "fleet".
1
Worldwide turmoil is just around the corner. If the numbers used in this article are accurate, the earth is heading for cataclysmic human conflict sooner than we think. It is astonishing to think that based just on the information in front of me, these changes are not more apparent in decisions being made for the future while the ability to enable them is relatively easy. One could argue like the GOP that knowing that future is impossible. That is incorrect. We can authenticate the future through abstract projection and begin preparation. Or not.
5
The pentagon is the only US government department actively preparing for climate change. It already has plans to move some facilities to less effected elevations and provide barriers to sea rise to buy time for others. Strategic first alert runways with 12-16 inches of water on them several times a year is already a reality on the East coast. Got to relocate, just like about a half billion of our like specimens over the next couple to few decades.
4
If you want to make this map even scarier, plot onto it the discovery of emergent transmissible diseases over the last couple of decades, like SARS, Zika, Ebola, etc. Then consider the confounding effect of governments that become anti science and nationalistic, reducing funding of organizations like the CDC and impeding international cooperation by walking away from treaties and the like. That used to be hard to imagine.
5
Inequality is the greatest threat to a dying planet.
The greatest war now being fought is how to accumulate the most money.
The people with the most money can ‘’decide’’ where to live.
There will always be perfect places for those with the most money
Inequality is the greatest threat to a dying planet
He who controls the wealth, controls the world.
There is not a prerequisite to love humanity to control the world,
To control the world they need all the money.
The greatest war now being fought is how to accumulate the most money.
The people with the most money can ‘’decide’’ where to live.
There will always be perfect places for those with the most money
Inequality is the greatest threat to a dying planet
He who controls the wealth, controls the world.
There is not a prerequisite to love humanity to control the world,
To control the world they need all the money.
2
"Water, water everywhere, / nor any drop to drink" Taken literally this line from the "The Rime of the Ancient Mariner" aptly describes a major problem in today's world. Though an abundance of water covers the earth's surface water shortages persist and threaten billions of people.
Governments should begin to work together building desalinization plants around the globe to improve quality of life for their populations.
The Carlsbad desalinization plant near San Diego has been up and running for a year now. The $1 billion facility is providing a sustained supply of potable water to cover the needs of 400,000 people. If governments were to redirect even a small percentage of their military spending to the building or increasing desalinization capacity it would do much to stabilize and improve the lives of their citizens and their neighbors and likely cut back on military use needed to curb the displacement effects of droughts worldwide.
And the same sentiments to philanthropists seeking to do good deeds. What could be more worthy than giving the gift of water to a thirsty world and the people who need relief the most?
Governments should begin to work together building desalinization plants around the globe to improve quality of life for their populations.
The Carlsbad desalinization plant near San Diego has been up and running for a year now. The $1 billion facility is providing a sustained supply of potable water to cover the needs of 400,000 people. If governments were to redirect even a small percentage of their military spending to the building or increasing desalinization capacity it would do much to stabilize and improve the lives of their citizens and their neighbors and likely cut back on military use needed to curb the displacement effects of droughts worldwide.
And the same sentiments to philanthropists seeking to do good deeds. What could be more worthy than giving the gift of water to a thirsty world and the people who need relief the most?
1
Truly alarming stuff. One of the best treatments I have seen on this topic is a documentary you reviewed several months ago, the Age of Consequences. It looks at climate change through the lens of national security and features many of our leading military strategists on potential flash points around the world. I highly recommend it.
2
The human migration we're experiencing to Europe and elsewhere is a mere trickle right now. The endless deluge has yet to come. And it will.
Environmental refugees will number in the hundreds of millions.
Environmental refugees will number in the hundreds of millions.
7
Tom Friedman wrote about this years ago in Hot Flat and Crowded. It was starting to happen a decade ago and now had accelerated to a point where it's no longer just a hypothesis.
Perhaps the reason why the US is in denial about climate change is because we're largely immune to the migration effects.
Perhaps the reason why the US is in denial about climate change is because we're largely immune to the migration effects.
1
I note that this map and article is actually inconsistent with what the climate scientists have been telling us. They have been saying that human emissions of CO2 is going to cause the atmosphere to trap more heat that would otherwise be reflected into space and cause the temperature of the planet to rise and the glaciers and the ice on Greenland to melt. And they have been saying that although the temperature on average is not going to rise all that much the temperature rise will be greater than average at the poles and less than average at the equator and thus enough at the poles and near the poles to cause the ice to melt and the seas to rise. And there assertion that the temperature will rise greater at the poles makes sense at least to me because as the atmosphere traps more heat it will tend to disperse it to the colder climes at the poles. But this map suggests that the temperature rises have been greatest at or near the equator which suggests that something else is causing the temperature rises. Like maybe the sun is just giving off more heat. I also note that the greatest tempera!ture rises are not where the droughts are but where the rain forests are. and why are there rain forests at the equator. Because the air blows in from the more temperate zones carrying moisture, rises above the equator and then that moisture condenses and falls as rain.
97% of scientists might subscribe to the basic science but would they subscribe to this article? Not likely.
97% of scientists might subscribe to the basic science but would they subscribe to this article? Not likely.
Just want to point this out for anyone who didn't notice it the first time:
"In a 2010 Gallup World Poll, though, about 12 percent of respondents — representing a total of 500 million adults — said severe environmental problems would require them to move within the next five years."
"In a 2010 Gallup World Poll, though, about 12 percent of respondents — representing a total of 500 million adults — said severe environmental problems would require them to move within the next five years."
2
I challenge anyone to find a Great War or migration or colonization not immediately proceeded by major cold or heat changes and resulting food and commodity changes from ancient times to modern. Equally to temperatures rising is falling. Cold War. 1946 was the coldest winter in 100 years for Europe. Civil, War of 1812, Revolutionary, back to Ancient Greece, Sudan, Egypt, China, Russia, and India.
We need planning for rising temp and for the periodic cold periods including major volcanic eruptions.
Where are such plans and preparations? How many active volcanoes just in the U.S.? Pacific Rim, Europe? . . .
Let Europe have a significant volcanic event and watch her reinvade Africa.
We need planning for rising temp and for the periodic cold periods including major volcanic eruptions.
Where are such plans and preparations? How many active volcanoes just in the U.S.? Pacific Rim, Europe? . . .
Let Europe have a significant volcanic event and watch her reinvade Africa.
Archaeologists and climate scientists now agree that the 3 crashes of civilization that happened in the Eastern Mediterranean & Near East over the Bronze age (c3500 -1150 BC) coincided with periods( a few decades) of low rainfall. Eg. At the end of the Bronze Age the Greek (Mycenaean) coalition of city & island states were destroyed , the Hittite Empire (Turkey+Syria) disappeared , Troy city #VI was destroyed , Ugarit was destroyed & never rebuilt , cities shrunk or were destroyed in Palestine , Egypt was the last to feel the effects (the Nile still flooded) but they recorded that displaced migrating raiders from across the Med. Sea came there too & into their vassal Palestine. Eg The Peleset=Philistines.
Prolonged insufficient rainfall destroyed these civilizations & set off migrations & destruction for the resources that remained. Climate change (low rainfall/desertification) is happening & sub Sahara Africa sees greener pastures in Europe. Syria is in war & drought. Some feel the European lifeboat is close to overflowing. What next ??
Prolonged insufficient rainfall destroyed these civilizations & set off migrations & destruction for the resources that remained. Climate change (low rainfall/desertification) is happening & sub Sahara Africa sees greener pastures in Europe. Syria is in war & drought. Some feel the European lifeboat is close to overflowing. What next ??
5
Well, more & more refugees from the south will try to flee from the climate change to the north. I think this is understandable. But the powers that be build more and more walls - and don't fight the origins of climate change. Thus, more and more conflicts are inevitable. And Mother Earth suffers more and more, too...
2
I just read this article, a day after it was initially published. One thing that's weird to me is that there are only 27 comments here. If this were about Trump's latest stupidity or any number of other topics there would be hundreds of comments.
And yet this, the most important issue of our time, underlying and beginning to drive all other political and economic considerations, is barely read? Maybe people just feel helpless because of the scope and ubiquity of the problem.
In any case, it won't go away. Soon climate-related news will be the lead story three times a week.
And yet this, the most important issue of our time, underlying and beginning to drive all other political and economic considerations, is barely read? Maybe people just feel helpless because of the scope and ubiquity of the problem.
In any case, it won't go away. Soon climate-related news will be the lead story three times a week.
126
I could not agree more. This is just too overwhelming for the vast majority of people. It's easier to dismiss it all as a conspiracy theory than look it straight in the eye and begin to address it. Short-sightedness. Fortunately politicians come and GO.
The unifying principle in this is "Cause and Effect" I am sure, despite the complexity. Under the appearances and disappearances of things are the unseen, largely unexplored within the context of scientific observation,, invisible spiritual causes. Eventually since this is affecting the whole planet, we will get focused on this matter. Eventually.
Absolutely : I'm so glad to see this mentioned.
As you say, it's the most important issue of our time and people need to be made aware of what's happening instead of blaming "Liberals", "immigrants"," illegals' and voting for Trump, Le Front National or Brexit to solve the great displacement of people.
The population movement will increase and no amount of Nigel Farages, Marine Le Pens, or Donald Trumps can do a thing to stop it.
"I want my country back", say the English .
It 's not going to happen,mates!
As you say, it's the most important issue of our time and people need to be made aware of what's happening instead of blaming "Liberals", "immigrants"," illegals' and voting for Trump, Le Front National or Brexit to solve the great displacement of people.
The population movement will increase and no amount of Nigel Farages, Marine Le Pens, or Donald Trumps can do a thing to stop it.
"I want my country back", say the English .
It 's not going to happen,mates!
1
It's good to see the New York Times focusing on this issue. Unfortunately I think very few Americans understand the impacts of climate change on migrations and conflicts. There is compelling scientific evidence that the problems in Syria were triggered by those droughts. You could add a large number of cases to the ones you highlight in the article. An important additional case is problems related to climate change in Central America, driving migrants to make the dangerous trip northward through Mexico, trying to gain entry to the USA.
61
Good argument for a wall, no?
1
Very perceptive comment. The Syrian Democratic "uprising" was really a glorified bread riot brought on by high grain prices brought on by.... you guessed it, climate change. Egypt same deal.... glorified bread riot brought on by high grain prices. America's twin habits of militarism and materialism are helping drive the extra heat the most. Happy Earth Day, pray for peace.
So, over population in areas that cannot sustain that growth as they are either arid, or flood prone has nothing to do with migration? When you cannot support yourself with food or water, but have 8 kids, somehow that will all be solved if we cap carbon and tax it?!?!?!!!!
The solution here isn't really tied to the billions spent on studying climate, but on controlling population sizes in the most volatile climates. And between deforestation and population growth, , we can stop emissions entirely and just sit on the ground trying not to breath and it will not help.
The solution here isn't really tied to the billions spent on studying climate, but on controlling population sizes in the most volatile climates. And between deforestation and population growth, , we can stop emissions entirely and just sit on the ground trying not to breath and it will not help.
1
Seeing as it is 2017, and this is The New York Times and all, how about using a map projection that doesn't erroneously suggest that Russia (17.10 million square km) is larger than Africa (30.37 million square km) and Greenland (2.17 million square km) is larger than Australia (7.70 million square km). Just sayin'.
57
Now that would require scientific thinkin'...
When people end a comment by "Just sayin", it means that they're too timid to really own what they're saying.
In other words, it's a copout.
In other words, it's a copout.
1
I was a speaker at the climate change conferences in 1988 (DC) and 1989 (Cairo) - and can tell you that all of this was fully predicted by us, back then. Also water wars and the rise of demagogues and authoritarian governments.
It was not only predictable; we predicted it. A fantasy scientists often adhere to is that if they can explain the situation clearly, then humanity will of course respond with wise action. Ah, the irony.
It is NOT that we do not have persons provably able to give good advice and predictions; it is that world-wide, our joint decision making processes are universally broken. We do not have one government of the planet capable of taking significant action.
We know what to do. We just can't do it. That - is the problem.
It was not only predictable; we predicted it. A fantasy scientists often adhere to is that if they can explain the situation clearly, then humanity will of course respond with wise action. Ah, the irony.
It is NOT that we do not have persons provably able to give good advice and predictions; it is that world-wide, our joint decision making processes are universally broken. We do not have one government of the planet capable of taking significant action.
We know what to do. We just can't do it. That - is the problem.
159
Greenpa, you've ID'd the core issue, albeit indirectly. You speak of "the will" as if it were a single mind. Alas, we're but a mob being manipulated by monied interests who are so wedded to their paths to power that they can't even begin to consider that those choices were deadly on a global scale.
And if that wasn't bad enough, note in the color-coded map how the worst offenders to carbon emissions are often the least affected. Bye bye timely repercussions.
Sadly, our systems of governance are catering to the few at the expense of the many. And this is highly unlikely to change before it's too late - vis-a-vis Brexit and Trump and maybe France. I will continue to fight the good fight, but I'd be foolish to bind my happiness to hope at this point.
And if that wasn't bad enough, note in the color-coded map how the worst offenders to carbon emissions are often the least affected. Bye bye timely repercussions.
Sadly, our systems of governance are catering to the few at the expense of the many. And this is highly unlikely to change before it's too late - vis-a-vis Brexit and Trump and maybe France. I will continue to fight the good fight, but I'd be foolish to bind my happiness to hope at this point.
2
I feel the same way abut nuclear weapons.
Not can't. Won't.
2
Mr Trump, do not build your wall as it is a Fool's Errand. You might, however, prepare our government and citizens for an influx of migrants over time as the climate continues to change and drives people toward the poles and away from the heavily populated tropics. There will be migration internally and from without over the next century.
There is not a wall that will stop people. The slow motion invasion of Europe was going on before American were paying attention, in continuing as you read this and will continue over time. The face of Europe has been changed and will continue to change and there is no humane way to stop it that has been found yet. It is a sneak preview of what is to come here.
America will be taking on more migrants regardless of who is President, who controls Congress and who is Governor in Texas, Florida and Arizona. The only details are when, on what scale and where from. Just as parents in Central America put children on trains headed North to the United States to escape violence, whole families will be fleeing either Climate Change or the economic and political impacts of the new reality.
There is not a wall that will stop people. The slow motion invasion of Europe was going on before American were paying attention, in continuing as you read this and will continue over time. The face of Europe has been changed and will continue to change and there is no humane way to stop it that has been found yet. It is a sneak preview of what is to come here.
America will be taking on more migrants regardless of who is President, who controls Congress and who is Governor in Texas, Florida and Arizona. The only details are when, on what scale and where from. Just as parents in Central America put children on trains headed North to the United States to escape violence, whole families will be fleeing either Climate Change or the economic and political impacts of the new reality.
24
You say that there is no humane way to stop the migration that is occurring. I agree with you and I don't expect that future solutions will be required to be humane.
As Trump works to give free reign to instigators of global warming and climate change by removing both funding and mandates, he is dedicating funds to monitor the effects of his policies: advanced weather tracking for major storms.
Yup, he'll need that.
Yup, he'll need that.
14
We are on the brink of losing the Arctic summer ice, the Great Barrier Reef is showing mass die-offs, and we are watching Syria and other countries dissolve into civil wars, largely under the pressures of extreme drought and heat. What we see now in terms of conflicts and refugees and suffering is minor compared to what is to come. We are sleepwalking our way to global disaster.
80
Was in the Alps recently... the Mer de Glace is no more, yet all we can do is make war. No excuse for America blowing up the world and not helping to rebuild it. The chaos created by our wars ensures that climate change will always be relegated to so-called security concerns.
So wmar and other deniers, you do realize that 97% of scientists disagree with you? And they have solid scientific evidence to back up their claims. Where's yours?
As to climate change, the IPCC report states:
"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen...."
For sea ice reduction, rising seas, melting glaciers, confidence is at least "high," and probability at least "likely."
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
What's the likelihood 3% of the scientists are correct versus the other 97%? 196 other countries are wrong, and the one climate denier, the US, is right? Like tobacco, chemical companies, sugar, etc., Fossil Fuels have a lot of $$ to gain through propaganda, doubt creation, confusion, denial. A heckuva lot more than lower-paid scientists. And look at their campaign contributions. Follow the money. We need common sense, people.
Lastly, go ask a farmer or rancher or any other outdoorsman what s/he has seen in the last 50 years. Their anecdotal evidence--even in the reddest of US states--confirms what scientists are saying...regardless of what Senator Snowball (OKla's Inhofe) says. And regardless of what's "causing it," good common sense and human preservation would dictate adaptation and mitigation, not denial.
As to climate change, the IPCC report states:
"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea level has risen...."
For sea ice reduction, rising seas, melting glaciers, confidence is at least "high," and probability at least "likely."
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf
What's the likelihood 3% of the scientists are correct versus the other 97%? 196 other countries are wrong, and the one climate denier, the US, is right? Like tobacco, chemical companies, sugar, etc., Fossil Fuels have a lot of $$ to gain through propaganda, doubt creation, confusion, denial. A heckuva lot more than lower-paid scientists. And look at their campaign contributions. Follow the money. We need common sense, people.
Lastly, go ask a farmer or rancher or any other outdoorsman what s/he has seen in the last 50 years. Their anecdotal evidence--even in the reddest of US states--confirms what scientists are saying...regardless of what Senator Snowball (OKla's Inhofe) says. And regardless of what's "causing it," good common sense and human preservation would dictate adaptation and mitigation, not denial.
35
It is not 97%. It is virtually 100%. Out of more than 13,000 peer-reviewed scientific papers on the climate, only one offered an non-anthropomorphic explanation.
30
And most gardeners who have been doing it for a number of years watch the plants, trees, starting earlier and earlier. In my childhood, magnolias, gardenias, mimosas, didn't bloom until June. In the last couple of years, it's been May. I'm not looking forward to April.
2
Really disappointing article. No depth whatsoever. Most of the rest of the NYT's articles addressing climate change have been stellar. Not mentioning irresponsible population growth in many of the countries most vulnerable to the impact of climate change is grossly irresponsible. Most wouldn't be facing any food insecurity had they stabilized their populations over the last half century instead of quadrupling their numbers. Their staggering birth rates continue apace, nothing good will come of it. Either depressing numbers of them will succumb to starvation, wars over water and food will ensue, and many will attempt to migrate to Western countries. There isn't room for all of them, nor the political will to accommodate them, nor the monies and food reserves to nourish them. And it's only going to get worse.
But Happy Earth Day everyone. Nice planet we had for awhile until homo (un-) sapiens' myopia and greed ruined it for everyone. Including the innocent flora and fauna we share this sun's satellite with.
But Happy Earth Day everyone. Nice planet we had for awhile until homo (un-) sapiens' myopia and greed ruined it for everyone. Including the innocent flora and fauna we share this sun's satellite with.
49
"Most wouldn't be facing any food insecurity had they stabilized their populations over the last half century instead of quadrupling their numbers. Their staggering birth rates continue apace, nothing good will come of it."
Actually only Africa is forecast to have birthrate significantly higher than 2.1 children per female of childbearing age. "Peak Kids" is almost here. Even Bangladesh has a birthrate of ~2.1/kids per female of child bearing age. The globe`s population increase this century will mostly be due to extending the life expectancy of adults in developing countries. There is a great TV show on this called "Don`t Worry" ( on Peak Kids) by a UN doctor. The stats are amazing.
Actually only Africa is forecast to have birthrate significantly higher than 2.1 children per female of childbearing age. "Peak Kids" is almost here. Even Bangladesh has a birthrate of ~2.1/kids per female of child bearing age. The globe`s population increase this century will mostly be due to extending the life expectancy of adults in developing countries. There is a great TV show on this called "Don`t Worry" ( on Peak Kids) by a UN doctor. The stats are amazing.
1
Said flora and fauna are looking forward to reinheriting the earth once our bubble has passed through history and the Anthropocene comes to a thankful close.
1
Don't cry for the flora and fauna. They'll be so glad to be rid of us.
What is past is prologue. William Shakespeare
4
Mr. President, please read this article.
5
Twitterfingers doesn't read. He watched Fox news. Sad.
16
He can't absorb written info.
What he needs is a good documentary.
But he and his followers will say it's fake news.
The more I think about it, the more this situation seems to fit the bill for having a "well-armed militia" in order to turf this gang of criminals out of office!
I must admit to being pretty riled up after Trump's recent invective against Canada.
What he needs is a good documentary.
But he and his followers will say it's fake news.
The more I think about it, the more this situation seems to fit the bill for having a "well-armed militia" in order to turf this gang of criminals out of office!
I must admit to being pretty riled up after Trump's recent invective against Canada.
1
@Philip S. Wenz
The world is small,
Your world is smaller.
The world is small,
Your world is smaller.
Apparently this is what passes for "climate science" these days. Even looking at the supplied figure, it's clear that the temperature increase "hot zones" don't match up with the displaced-people-estimate shading. I'm sure there are plenty of statisticians who could have done a proper correlation analysis -- it's not complicated -- but then that likely would have contradicted the author's slant.
Is it "fake news" if you don't actually check if it's true or not?
Is it "fake news" if you don't actually check if it's true or not?
3
The worst looming - and avoidable - planetary disaster has no comments yet? What dies that say about our awareness - or denial? Even from academic colleagues I earned a condescending 'here she goes again' smirk when I started a discussion on the role of climate change in the Syrian civil way 2 years ago.
I hope for an overwhelming participation for both the science (4-22) and the Climate marches (4-29) + hope citizens stay involved + do not make this just a 1-day 'happy planet' vent.
If we cannot handle the Near-East refugees, how will we handle the millions from under-educated over-populated low-lying regions? The pentagon knows (See Jared Scott film "The Age of Consequences" - so it is inconceivable to me that they just watch Trump & Co dismantle the few weak protections in place.
We need a public groundswell that mutes the monied deniers. PLEASE JOIN THE MARCHES + more.
I hope for an overwhelming participation for both the science (4-22) and the Climate marches (4-29) + hope citizens stay involved + do not make this just a 1-day 'happy planet' vent.
If we cannot handle the Near-East refugees, how will we handle the millions from under-educated over-populated low-lying regions? The pentagon knows (See Jared Scott film "The Age of Consequences" - so it is inconceivable to me that they just watch Trump & Co dismantle the few weak protections in place.
We need a public groundswell that mutes the monied deniers. PLEASE JOIN THE MARCHES + more.
20
Yes, lets............march, that's solved a lot.
Wow.
Wow.
1
Crossing Overhead.......actually marches do affirm solidarity with a contagious esprit de corps of pageantry! The March for Science in my city yesterday was so much fun, can't wait for the Climate March next Saturday. The energy is channeled into raised awareness via social networking and furthered commitment to the cause, calls to congresspeople and ultimately, votes!
1
Thank you for making these connections between climate change and human welfare/warfare. It's not just about polar bears. This truly is the most important thing in the world!
20
This insightful article shows just how interconnected all of our current crises are. To think that the refugee crises are only political crises is naive. It's so crucial to understand that these social crises are connected to the lack of resources. The disasters that we are seeing unfold are a result of the collision between environmental disaster and overpopulation. Resources are limited, but we are doing virtually nothing to address overpopulation. Instead, Trump defunds any American program that provides contraception to these regions of the world. Not a very good start.
23
The Philippines are exposed to about 10 typhoons a year. The deadliest (Typhoon Haiphong) killed 20,000 persons in 1881. Three of the 10 deadliest occurred before 1900. Even the IPCC refuses to attribute natural disasters to climate change (SRES report, 2013).
6
Nonsense. The IPCC does not "refuse to attribute natural disasters to climate change." What it maintains is that while no one specific natural disaster can be attributed directly to climate change, the odds of there being more frequent and more severe superstorms, droughts and so on are increased by climate change.
That's not so complicated. A junior high school student could understand it perfectly, and even climate-change deniers could understand it if they really try.
That's not so complicated. A junior high school student could understand it perfectly, and even climate-change deniers could understand it if they really try.
30
Comparing the effects of storms before 1900, or even 1980 is specious given the advances in warning systems and engineering.
I think building codes and early warning systems have gotten a bit more rigorous since 1881, Lance.
A three-year drought in Syria is not necessarily due to climate change. We just had a 4-year drought in California and this year we had the wettest year in history. Droughts and floods happen everywhere and at all times. (California had a hundred-year drought well before fossil fuels were first used.) Yes the drought in Syria came at a bad time but the civil war was the main cause of the refugees, not the climate.
6
I disagree. I think that global warming-induced droughts helped bring about the instability in Egypt and Syria that are causing those countries to self-destruct.
1
Lance, such wild weather extremes are actually a signature of climate change. And particularly destructive to the natural world, as species, flora and fauna, have nothing reliable to adapt to. A generation may naturally select for drought hardiness, then are wiped out by the opposite extreme, causing population losses that can become pernicious. As every species has a role to play in an ecosystem, population crashes of one species can have a domino effect leading to ecosystem collapse and extinctions.
In Africa the tiniest shift in rainfall patterns can mean watering holes dry up, threatening the survival of some of the earth's most extraordinary and threatened species.
This is the only planet in the known universe to support life. Prove yourself worthy of this incomparable gift by never, ever, taking it for granted.
In Africa the tiniest shift in rainfall patterns can mean watering holes dry up, threatening the survival of some of the earth's most extraordinary and threatened species.
This is the only planet in the known universe to support life. Prove yourself worthy of this incomparable gift by never, ever, taking it for granted.
1
Lake Chad shrank largely due to irrigation demands.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2001/02/010228080245.htm
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2001/02/010228080245.htm
6
How many can you list are good about warming ?
The Great Plains, Canada and Europe and Russian tundra no longer frozen and can support agriculture to feed todays larger population.
Cities like New York, Chicago, Stockholm, London and many more are no longer under miles thick ice. Fish animals and fauna populations expand drastically and human populations grow geometrically.
I wonder why only negative stories about warming caused by Sun are reported ?
The Great Plains, Canada and Europe and Russian tundra no longer frozen and can support agriculture to feed todays larger population.
Cities like New York, Chicago, Stockholm, London and many more are no longer under miles thick ice. Fish animals and fauna populations expand drastically and human populations grow geometrically.
I wonder why only negative stories about warming caused by Sun are reported ?
6
Yes, America and Canada and Russia will have access to trillions more in Natural resources when the polar ice cap melts, but guess who suffers? The poor billions in the hot zones. I don't want to live in a Mad Max world, even if I'm Alpha Dog.
2
The problem is the oceans are acidifying and dying and the warming is just getting started. We have already passed the tipping point. Even without further polluting, the world will continue to get warmer.
1
Expanding human populations aren't necessarily a foregone conclusion, not if the flow of devellopment aid from advanced countries is redirected towards family planning.
1
Call me simple, but I don't understand the climate change index being used here. The caption states it "indicate[s] greater temperature change, compared with a baseline average." The color pattern on the map shows the greatest temperature changes occurring in the tropics. Yet every every relevant article I have ever read claims that the greatest temperature changes are occurring in the polar regions, especially the Arctic, are what is driving the loss of sea ice.
This map is flatly contradictory. Please explain!
This map is flatly contradictory. Please explain!
9
U - it's just poor-quality reporting. You've got a sharp eye.
The index used here hasn't been actively maintained for more than a decade; it has serious flaws, including the lack of temperature-recording stations in many less-developed regions of the world. To a first approximation, the darkest red regions on the map correlate with a lack of temperature-recording stations, not temperature rise. Publishing with obvious flaws like these are what peer review is designed to prevent -- perhaps the NYT might consider a peer review system for its science articles?
The index used here hasn't been actively maintained for more than a decade; it has serious flaws, including the lack of temperature-recording stations in many less-developed regions of the world. To a first approximation, the darkest red regions on the map correlate with a lack of temperature-recording stations, not temperature rise. Publishing with obvious flaws like these are what peer review is designed to prevent -- perhaps the NYT might consider a peer review system for its science articles?
Fortunately, The Times has hired Bret Stephens, a climate denier, to assure us that global warming is not a problem. We also have wmar, a denier troll, chiming in below.
Addressing global warming is the greatest challenge in human history since the population bottleneck of 80,000 years ago. Many Times staffers know are aware of this fact, but their urgency is overruled by the Business Office, which is focused on placating advertisers.
Wake up, New York Times, and find your hearts. That means addressing lies as well as disseminating useful climate information. Many of us still trust and depend on you. Show us that you deserve this trust.
Addressing global warming is the greatest challenge in human history since the population bottleneck of 80,000 years ago. Many Times staffers know are aware of this fact, but their urgency is overruled by the Business Office, which is focused on placating advertisers.
Wake up, New York Times, and find your hearts. That means addressing lies as well as disseminating useful climate information. Many of us still trust and depend on you. Show us that you deserve this trust.
41
Thanks for a short clear exposition.
Threat multiplier is a useful way to think of a warming and increasingly chaotic planetary system. Since weather is complex, it's hard to pin down the patterns for people with short memories who don't keep up with world news, even when it is adequately reported. (I wish weather extremes were as consistently reported as Trump's latest antics and errors. Haiti's death blow from Matthew is long forgotten here, as are even our own flood victims. Iran just had some devastating floods; the videos were hard to watch. And on and on ...)
Other threats that are multiplying relate to changing seasons and migrating species, particularly disease vectors. Forests are vulnerable to pests which multiply without the regular deep freezes that used to happen most winters, and are now more the exception than the rule. There is more dengue, chikungunya, and other tropical diseases and pests are migrating, even the more obvious like sharks and jellyfish are moving to new regions.
These are only a few sketchy examples, but we are entering a changing world, accelerating, and human migration is likely to increase as areas like Bangladesh become uninhabitable. All too often, such regions are also losing their natural defenses to development and "management", like New Orleans.
Also, women should be given ready access to birth control when possible, being the more sensible caring part of humanity. Republicans have a lot to answer for. We are not chattels.
Threat multiplier is a useful way to think of a warming and increasingly chaotic planetary system. Since weather is complex, it's hard to pin down the patterns for people with short memories who don't keep up with world news, even when it is adequately reported. (I wish weather extremes were as consistently reported as Trump's latest antics and errors. Haiti's death blow from Matthew is long forgotten here, as are even our own flood victims. Iran just had some devastating floods; the videos were hard to watch. And on and on ...)
Other threats that are multiplying relate to changing seasons and migrating species, particularly disease vectors. Forests are vulnerable to pests which multiply without the regular deep freezes that used to happen most winters, and are now more the exception than the rule. There is more dengue, chikungunya, and other tropical diseases and pests are migrating, even the more obvious like sharks and jellyfish are moving to new regions.
These are only a few sketchy examples, but we are entering a changing world, accelerating, and human migration is likely to increase as areas like Bangladesh become uninhabitable. All too often, such regions are also losing their natural defenses to development and "management", like New Orleans.
Also, women should be given ready access to birth control when possible, being the more sensible caring part of humanity. Republicans have a lot to answer for. We are not chattels.
62
Climate displacement has happened over the entire life of the planets flora and fauna.
Glacial melt rates have not increased since the 1850 rate.
n Winston Churchill’s book 'The River War: An Account of the Reconquest of the Sudan', published in 1899, Churchill specifically mentions the shrinking of Lake Chad. He writes:
"and even Lake Chad, into which the Shari flows, appears to be leaking through some subterranean exit, and is rapidly changing from a lake into an immense swamp."
Syria? http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/9/8/minor-drying-in-iran-cau...
China - if one reads the literature it is clear that China's deserts are small when compared to hotter times in the past (The south China Sea being as much as 3C+ hotter during the Minoan Warm Period), and also, during the Medieval Warm Period.
Typhoons of the past were at times larger and more powerful that Haiyan and much more deadly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon
Climate models are now operating at a confidence level of LESS that 2% ... according to IPCC expert modelers.
Glacial melt rates have not increased since the 1850 rate.
n Winston Churchill’s book 'The River War: An Account of the Reconquest of the Sudan', published in 1899, Churchill specifically mentions the shrinking of Lake Chad. He writes:
"and even Lake Chad, into which the Shari flows, appears to be leaking through some subterranean exit, and is rapidly changing from a lake into an immense swamp."
Syria? http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/9/8/minor-drying-in-iran-cau...
China - if one reads the literature it is clear that China's deserts are small when compared to hotter times in the past (The south China Sea being as much as 3C+ hotter during the Minoan Warm Period), and also, during the Medieval Warm Period.
Typhoons of the past were at times larger and more powerful that Haiyan and much more deadly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon
Climate models are now operating at a confidence level of LESS that 2% ... according to IPCC expert modelers.
6
No mention of atmospheric levels of CO2 being at all time highs when compared to the last 400,000 years? The greenhouse effect has already been proven with other aerosols and CO2 is no different. Anthropogenic climate change is proven and will be a serious concern in the coming years.
Your two sources are ridiculous at best ... a christian blog and the entire wikipedia page for "typhoon". I suggest that you do more research.
Your two sources are ridiculous at best ... a christian blog and the entire wikipedia page for "typhoon". I suggest that you do more research.
3
If you don't think the world is getting hotter, you simply are choosing to ignore reality.
2
I like to emphasize that it is not change per se, but the rate of change that is the destabilizing force.
Humanity can adjust and ecosystems have adjusted before, but individuals and generations are lethargic; they do not tolerate a fast rate of change.
Humanity can adjust and ecosystems have adjusted before, but individuals and generations are lethargic; they do not tolerate a fast rate of change.
7
https://news.vice.com/article/the-drought-that-preceded-syrias-civil-war...