Georgia Election: Expect the Early Vote Count to Be Misleading

Apr 18, 2017 · 58 comments
Resident Sixth (Georgia)
I want to commend Nate Cohn's coverage of the Georgia 6th District race and specially on election night. His twitter feed was excellent and nearly real time. The info graphics were also outstanding. I will make sure to read Nate's column as often as possible to get a wider perspective of my local race. Being a Conservative Democrat I feel like I am on an island down here. The local news is skewed either far left or far right. We moderates have to pick through the bias. Keep up the great work.
Andrew (NYC)
What a nightmare for the Republicans

Election after election, each with the Democrats closer than what seemed possible

Yet the Republicans still winning
Mike G. (usa)
The real news from this election is the same as recent elections. The dems were able to energize their base, seen through the large early voting, but were unable to bring new democrats to the polls. All the democrat candidates combined only garnered 49% of the vote. Looking back at Hillary's failure among women, blacks, and Hispanics, the democrats are bumping up against a wall, every effort has failed to raise the weak turnout record of blacks and Hispanics, and the war on women is past it's peak.

If people won't vote their own interests then it is time for the democrats to stop holding their hand and let them live with the results, that might change their mind. You led this horse to water and in the meantime destroyed the party. Return to our roots.

As a Democrat I don't support government unions that have driven gov't wages above the mean, I don't support high impact fees, heavy building regulation and excessive conservation of land that have driven home prices beyond the reach of the middle class, I don't support the regressive tax and fee structure now prevalent in so many blue states, or the constant tax nudging to shape my behavior. I support limited school choice, limited abortion, fair trade agreements, and thought Obama was a fool to abandon Iraq and not bomb Syria after the chemical attacks. And frankly, I don't care what bathroom transgenders use.

Am I still a Democrat with those beliefs? You bet, the question is, are you?
wilson candler (atlanta)

Fortunately, educated people are capable of grasping a world of nuance, fluidity and relativity. Accordingly, the poll that paints the real picture here in the 6th District is the one you haven't cited: the Quinnipiac Poll (3/23/17). That poll demonstrated that 83%+ of registered voters opposed TrumpCare. The fact that, despite those remarkable numbers, most GOP House members were prepared to shove TrumpCare down these voters' throats is an indicator of an even larger disconnect between the GOP and its constituents. Such bad behavior is not lost on voters here who have been given a rare second chance to amend their choice of congressional representation.
Trump won this district by rote vote, a joyless aspect of party loyalty that left those on the right with queasy stomachs. And from what they've
witnessed since Jan 20th, a very heavy dose of guilt.
With 3 months of Trump to judge by, they see that nuance is non-existent...they got exactly what their impetuous vote bought them. However, the possibility of effecting change remains fluid, given this extraordinary opportunity to correct their vote. Lastly, with 6th District Special Election GOP candidates still running, incredibly, on the Repeal and Replace platform....relative to the vast majority of voters in this district who adamantly oppose it...a change of vote, for sanity's sake alone, is practically obligatory.
In these parts, Redemption is a valued commodity. And now is the time to cash in. Its all good.
Terri Smith (Usa)
I would really like to see a big Democrat win.
Eric (Mountain View, CA)
Here's my prediction: Ossoff wins and sends shockwaves through the alt-right and Republican ranks in general. Ossoff loses by single digits in a blood red district and accomplishes the same objective. Either way, the only winners today are going to be Democrats.
AJ (Atlanta)
The vote totals will shift when Republicans go vote at the end of the workday
Jon W. (New York, NY)
I would have thought that liberals would tire of the stale argument that Republicans "vote against their best interests," but apparently not. Here's a hint for you: they don't agree with your determination of what is in their "best interest."
N. Smith (New York City)
@JonW.
The problem seems to be that everyone has forgetten this country is not comprised solely of either "liberal" or "Republican" interests -- and anything other than recognizing that, is in no one's "best interest".
Skip Moreland (Baldwinsville, N.Y.)
Considering that republicans vote against their economic interests to support their faith based interests which are never fulfilled, they do vote against their own interests. Voting based on abortion, 2nd amendment, and religious concerns have gotten the republicans nothing, while their economic interests keep failing.
The republicans have fought against every jobs bill for the last 8 plus yrs. The trumpster ran on Jobs, jobs, jobs, yet has done but threaten to take insurance away from his base and give huge tax cuts to the rich. Which has been the republican plan for the last 35 plus yrs.
When was the last good republican plan to help the economy besides giving more money to the rich? None. Not one. They can't get rid of abortion, it's privately funded. But they can get rid of health care for poor women and I fail to see how that is in anyway in the best interest of anyone. Considering sooner or later we pay for that in the end.
Everything they propose is against the interest of the poor, of which there are many poor white rural people who voted for the republicans. And they will be hurt by what the republicans do.
Every red state fails in standards of living, health, education, poverty, etc. All led by republicans who promise to work in the best interests of the people, yet those people all suffer. The red states live off the blue states for federal money to keep them afloat. Kansas which decided to go completely with republican policy is a failing state in every way.
F.S.L. (Georgia)
Trials today as a precinct captain for the Ossoff campaign at a local elementary school in the 6th District in GA: A small group of 4 people in a rural northern very red rural city put up a tent about 600 feet from the polling place along with Ossoff signs. (The area is heavily littered with signs from a lot of candidates but we are the only ones live at the site.) By noon the polling place and school had gotten an unspecified number of complaints of an unspecified nature. We were not blocking traffic or engaging with voters but all the same, we were told to leave the property by the Fulton County School Department. The principle showed us an email from the School Department interpreting school policy but not the policy itself. "You do not have our permission to be here." The email was unclear and exempted "political forums." I've voted at this location for years. I know that what we were doing was no different then what's been done many times before. The only difference is that now it's a Democrat trying to take away a GOP seat, "their seat" according to anti-Ossoff adds. As GOP State Sen. Fran Millar said in talking about gerrymandering, "These lines were not drawn to get Hank Johnson's protégé to be my representative. And you didn't hear that."
Linda (Florida)
I' m not in agreement that anything untoward happened but if it did, do you really think after all the dirty tricks congressional Democrats used against Republicans anyone should care???,
Joseph (albany)
The Democrats declared Kansas a "victory" despite losing by seven points. Let's see them try to declare this race a victory if Ossoff loses in a district that Trump barely carried.
John (Indiana)
Didn't Price carry this district with 62% of the vote? Why aren't you going by that stat instead of how trump did?
F.S.L. (Georgia)
If you've read any analysis of the makeup and history of the district, you'd know the election is an incredible up hill battle. Trump's numbers are not an indicator although his performance is a motivating factor.
Skip Moreland (Baldwinsville, N.Y.)
Considering he won over 48% and the nearest republican didn't break 20%, he did win. When you do far better in the other's territory where they are expected to win easily, it is a win to make the election close. No way should Kansas have been close at all considering the home filed advantage.
bp (Alameda, CA)
No suspense here, GOP voter suppression tactics will prevent Ossoff from wining 50% and will stop him in the runoff. We've seen this before and should acknowledge their mastery in this area.

Winning elections by increasing your support is old school and naive - the way to win is by suppressing votes for your opponent.
Linda (Florida)
How would that happen? By asking for photo id., as is done at the airport? How many people are suppressed from flying by having to show an id?, How about when renting a car or when purchasing items at a a store?
Eric (Mountain View, CA)
False logic. Going to the airport is not your right.
F.S.L. (Georgia)
Suppressing the vote happens when many voters suddenly have their polling place changer without notice. That did happen here. People who traditionally voted in one place for years, find out they have to find the polling place in the next town. There was a lot of shuffling of locations.
MM (California)
Certainly maybe, but then again, and justifiable so, maybe not.
Rodin's Muse (Arlington)
"I'm a mile and a half down the street to support Alicia while she finishes medical school. It's something I've been very transparent about," Ossoff said. "In fact, I'm proud to be supporting her career."

"As soon as she finishes her medical training, I'll be 10 minutes back up the road into the district where I grew up," he continued.
Sean (Greenwich, Connecticut)
Mr Cohn, how much will voter suppression impact the vote in this district?

You have refused to even comment on Republican voter suppression laws in the pass, pretending as though the vote is free and fair. It's not.

So what's the impact on this election today?
dreamweaver (Texas)
A few words on the policy positions of the leading candidates wound be helpful.
Babel (new Jersey)
Well it seems like you've covered every possible outcome. This is an example of leaving an article knowing as much as you did going in. The most likely outcome is that Republicans disillusioned with Trump will continue their practice of never voting for a Democrat (educated or not), when they finally arrive at the ballot box. When you join the Republican Club you're in it for life. Failures of the Party or major disappoints never seem to reach a level that would cause a Republican to vote for a liberal pro government loving candidate.
Mari (Camano Island, WA)
Georgia, like most red states, is not as prosperous as the blue states. Isn't it time for the South to rise up and reject the Republicans?! Vote for your own best interest instead of voting for the GOP whose mantra is "party over country"? Come one, y'all! Ask yourselves what has the Republican Party done for...you?

The GOP will "replace and repeal" your healthcare, and your mama's healthcare leaving your family with mounting medical debt and reduced Medicaid and Medicare. Once they are done "repealing and replacing" the ACA (Obamacare) they have already signaled that they want to cut other social programs, that help the working class folks, who just do not earn enough to afford medical insurance. And by the way....the Republicans do not care if you have e preexisting condition!

Isn't it time to vote for the Democrat? The one who is not in the pocket of special interest, but who wants to help by using your hard earned tax dollars not to fight yet another war....but to actually keep your healthcare intact, to provide for your poor, your sick, your elderly? The Democrat who will go to D.C. and fight for raising the Minimum wage? Again I ask what have the Republicans done for...you?!

Vote blue Georgia! You won't regret it! Reject the politics of hate, fear, lies and division!
Ray (Sewickley, Pa)
Democrats should market themselves as a progressive party in ads, not just ads for individual candidates for office.

Simple TV ad I'd like to see: A question: Who's been looking out for you? Then a scrolling column divided in the middle. The left side and right sides displaying a list of GOP and Democratic initiatives/programs over the last 100 years that have benefitted the ordinary guy, Joe Lunchbucket.

Safe to say that it would be a slew of programs on the Democratic side scrolling for a long time, and maybe none, or one, maybe two items informing voters of the GOP efforts to help the little guy.

A slate at the end with something to the effect: Now that you know: STOP voting against your best interests and START voting for them!
Linda (Florida)
You are barking up the wrong tree. LOL The 6th district is very prosperous and highly educated. If they vote Republican, I'll quote you, They will be rejecting the politics of hate, fear,lies and delusion.
AJ (Atlanta)
You have no idea what Georgia's economy is like. Ever heard of CocaCola? Home Depot? Delta? Mercedes-Benz USA? Any idea what they all have in common??
Pat (Atlanta)
I voted early last week. Long lines at the polls. People in line were NOT happy that the media forced this race into the spotlight. Expect the counter-turnout to take it to a runoff easily.
SalParadise (Buckhead)
Voted this AM in East Cobb, no lines, easy-peasy.
Marina (<br/>)
what does that mean?? the media forced this into the spotlight? It is important as it is replacing Price's seat, and it is an interesting demographic snapshot, and it is tradition Republican seat which the Dems hope to flip.. Hence the spotlight!!
HurryHarry (NJ)
Any honest interpretation of the results must consider the fact that Democrats basically have settled on one candidate while Republicans have a huge field at worst, or two viable candidates at best. So an Ossoff win is likely to signify nothing regarding Trump.

Neither did the Kansas results. The Republican was a state official in a state with a hugely unpopular Republican governor. Yet his 7 point win was derided as a moral victory for Democrats. Why can't the media own up to the fact that special elections often are decided by special factors that cloud their national significance? (This last comment excludes Nate Cohn, who wrote a very fair article.)
Jonathan (Oronoque)
The last-minute revelation that Ossoff does not actually live in the district is bound to do him considerable damage, particularly if there is a runoff. You would have thought that the Democrats would have made sure that their candidate checks such a simple box. Sure, he is eligible under the Constitution to serve, but it doesn't look good to the voters.
Megan Lasure (Atlanta, GA)
Last minute? I knew months ago and there's a perfectly logical explanation for his temporarily living near Emory (his long-term girlfriend is in medical school). He's already said that he'll be moving back once she graduates.
Brenda (Maine)
Oh please -- this is not a "last-minute" revelation. The Republicans have been trumpeting it for weeks. He actually lives one mile from the district border, and grew up in the district. Quite the outsider -- not!
R. Williams (Athens, GA)
Ossoff was born and grew up in the district, and his current home is just a short distance over the district line. The Republicans have tried to make much of his not living in the district. One commercial from the Congressional Leadership Pac features an older woman (I guess about my age of 60) who angrily says, "He doesn't even live here! He's not one of us!" The irony is that she has a very strong New York accent, sounding like she hasn't been living in the district very long herself.

Not too long ago, her accent alone would have given her away as an outsider in the district. As recently as thirty-five years ago, the area of the district identified as the woman's hometown was mainly forest and old farmland inhabited by long term Georgians who spoke with a strong foothills drawl (think Zell Miller). Much of the district is now inhabited by people fairly new to the area, most of them from other parts of the country. John's Creek, where the commercial said the woman lived, wasn't even incorporated as a city until 2006. I would hazard to guess that the majority of voters in the district were not born in Georgia and certainly not in the district.

Although Newt Gingrich did hold the 6th District seat, the district was a large area to the west and southwest of Atlanta for most of his tenure in Congress. The current district is a relatively small area to the north and northeast. Only a sliver, if that, of the 6th District when he was Speaker is in the current district.
Janet Newton (WI, USA)
The most likely scenario I see is that Ossoff is headed for the run-off. What will make the difference then is (1) who his opponent is and how he/she sells himself/herself to the Republican voters who are skeptical of him/her; (2) the kind of boots on the ground game that the Democrats are able to marshall. There is no substitute for going door to door and engaging potential voters in face to face conversations, not confrontations, to find out what their concerns are and to hone in on Mr. Ossoff's overall message. These are upscale younger 30-somethings, highly educated and in well paying careers for the most part, on the move upward and outward, and they're not all "white" - they are a rainbow mix; they are moving into this district that is now increasingly and rapidly gentrifying in areas not theretofore deemed "desirable", buying expensively renovated "character" houses in family-oriented neighborhoods that are nonetheless, in many instances, "hip" enough to host walking distance boutiques and small, intimate gourmet restaurants and eateries of all types. At least in this area, the face of Georgia has changed and continues to change. It elected Newt Gingrich, who these days would be lucky to garner 10% of the vote. The times, they are a-changing. Get with the program, Democrats. Study the area, know your demographics, search it out, find out what its concerns are, and go for it - committed all the way.
Katherine (Rome, Georgia)
Since 2012, It's become interesting and relentlessly frustrating to read about how Democrats have a real chance in Georgia because of demographics, this and that, etc. and then when the votes are counted, Republicans continue to win usually by a bigger margin that polls showed. Georgia hasn't gone Democratic since they narrowly voted for Bill Clinton, a fellow southerner, in 1992. So, I now take these articles with about 20 grains of salt. sigh.
Ecce Homo (Jackson Heights, NY)
In this case, since the Georgia 6th District is heavily Republican, the point isn't so much whether the Democrats win, but how big the pro-Democrat shift is. Tom Price won this seat by more than 23 percent last November. Polling shows that Jon Ossoff is running essentially even, indicating a shift of pro-Democratic shift of 20+ percent.

As it happens, the results in the Kansas 4th District special election last week showed a 24-point shift toward Democrats since Mike Pompeo's re-election last November. In other words, Democrats are suddenly competitive in Congressional districts that have been Republican for decades.

There are now 39 Republicans who won their last House election by 15 percent or less. The lesson of these special elections is that not one of those 39 is safe. Democrats would ordinarily be expected to do well in the 2018 mid-terms, since Republicans hold the White House. But this time around, with Trump's approval rating at historic lows, it's likely that Democrats will have an especially good mid-term.

Even if Ossoff wins, Democrats are still a minority in the House until 2018. So what's important in these special elections is not so much who wins them but what they tell us about 2018, when the whole House is up for grabs.

politicsbyeccehomo.wordpress.com
Katherine (Rome, Georgia)
I hope, hope that we can turn things around in 2018 and 2020.
j (nj)
I have very limited knowledge of the candidates, Democrat or Republican, in this race. However, whatever the result, I do not think this particular race will say much about future trends, since there are many unique variables, the least of which is Ossoff's youth. Youth might be worshipped by retailers, but is it usually seen as a negative asset for a politician. Not that wisdom necessarily comes with age, as in the case of Trump. In general in the political arena, youth is seen as inexperience, and thirty is pretty young. It is probably close to the age of many of these voters' children. The median age of voters in this district might have some effect on the outcome, which would not be surprising.
Janet Newton (WI, USA)
Know thy demographics, neighbor! You are way off in your calculations in this district. Older voters care about "experienced" politicians - but they voted for Trump, didn't they. Not by a lot, but they held their noses and they did it anyway. Ossoff needs to hone his message, and stay true to it. So far, I'd say he has done a B+ job; he needs to bring his A game to the run-off, and so does the Democratic Party.
toom (Germany)
During the campaign, Trump said "If you have nothing to lose, vote for me". The wealthy GOP-voting suburban dwellers have LOTS to lose if Trump wrecks the US. So they are in a quandry. They have health insurance and a good income, but if the economy goes south, they will lose bigly. Ossoff cannot do much in congress, but a vote for him will awaken fear in the GOP congressional leaders.
N. Smith (New York City)
You mention the "wealthy GOP-voting suburban dwellers" losing "bigly" -- but what about everyone else?
Or, have you forgotten that there's more of them, and they have everything to lose?
Kelly (Canada)
question from a Canadian: is the Average usual GOP supporter in Georgia the same power base Bush used to win his second term ? southern Baptists?
Also, how does the GOP suppress poorer people from voting?
Wouldn't any attempt at suppressing voters have a backlash effect?
Will (Nashville)
The average GOP supporter in Georgia isn't the same as the average supporter in the 6th district in GA. It's one of the richest, affluent areas in GA and really the SE US. The base for the 6th is upper-middle class, mostly Christian voters. The Southern Baptists bloc is more of a rural GA thing.

The voter suppression issue is hotly contested. The GOP advocates for voter ID cards to ensure voting integrity. While the Dems say that that is just a veiled attempt to restrict lower income, minorities (who typically vote Dem) from voting.
Andrea G (New York, NY)
Though he won't reach the 50% mark Ossoff will most likely get the highest percentage during this first round of voting because the votes will be split across the Republican candidates. That said, whichever Republican meets him in the June run-off will likely win by a small margin.
David (Fairfax, VA)
At the end of the day, we'll perhaps see how much the reality of the vote varies from the media hype around this particular special election.
Jackie (USA)
Ossoff got over 90% of his money from outside the district. He doesn't even live in the district. For whatever reason, this is legal, but it seems odd.
I predict Handel or whatever Republican will handily win over Ossoff in the general election.
Ryan (District 6)
This is one of the main reasons, if not the sole reason, why people don't want to vote for him. I don't get why Ossoff is the go-to guy for the Dems, instead of someone like Slotin.
Dale Stothers (Troy, MI)
You know where the money is coming from? That's fantastic. If perchance you have a diagram of Trump's money, we'd all like a look. But that doesn't matter now, does it? Or at least it matters when it needs to matter. Sad face :(
Carol (No. Calif.)
The Republicans running in this race against Ossorf are all getting 90% or more of their funding from outside the district (Club for Growth, Koch brothers, etc.), so it seems only fair that the Democratic front-runner should get a little outside funding, too. I hope he does win. Smart, young, came back home to make his life where he grew up. Decent. Couldn't ask for more, in a Congressman.
Frau Greta (Somewhere in New Jersey)
Expect Ossoff to fail in his bid. Democrats have become particularly inept at knowing where to put their money where it can do the most good, which in this case is getting people out to vote, not advertising. It's a numbers game, and Democrats have failed to learn the lesson, time and time again. So they will continue to lose elections that by all rights they should be winning.
Ryan (District 6)
Based on what I witnessed on the streets of District 6 last week, seems to me there was a larger showing of Democrats in the early polls, with Ossoff supporters in full force blocking traffic and spamming everyone's mailbox, email and cell phone. Ossoff ran a very "in your face" campaign, which came across as very offputting to many voters that may have been on the fence, citing concerns about his allegiance to the district itself, much less his lack of real-world tenure and experience. There have even been several incidents of vandalism of Ossoff signs, removal of candidate yard signs, etc. as things heated up in recent days.

As the author indicates, it appears as though many Republicans waited to make their voting decision, with most hitting the polls late in early voting last week or waiting until the 18th. While the 6th is a long-standing Republican district, there has been a definitive shift to the middle/middle-left, as younger and more diverse educated voters grow up and move back to the suburbs to start families in neighborhoods such as Sandy Springs, Dunwoody, Alpharetta and Johns Creek. The perimeter area and neighboring communities have seen explosive population growth since 2011 due to an influx of corporate and residential development and investment near MARTA rail.

Republicans will likely retain the seat, with leading candidates Handel, Gray and Hill leading the pack, but don't count on the 6th district being a guaranteed Red stronghold in the future.
Mari (Camano Island, WA)
If you are correct, once again Georgia will vote for the GOP, who have done zero to help them and only know how to spend the hard earned Georgia tax dollars on more wars! The South struggles economically because y'all keep voting against your own best interests, even if it costs you, your lives....because the Republicans will take away your healthcare!
Megan Lasure (Atlanta, GA)
I'm also in the 6th and I didn't see anyone blocking traffic, though I'll cop to having been bombarded with flyers.
Gladys (Atlanta)
Please quit using "y'all."