Glad to see this remake of the Carter Administration is heading for a 2010 rout. We Democrats should have been smarter after 2008, but we can ask ourselves that question in 12 years when we get rid of the Donald and have a successful 2 term Democratic administration 2020-2028, only to lose to another racist.
2
Earth to Nate:
The fact that the Republican candidate ONLY won by 7 points is hardly an indication that the "Republicans are in real trouble" as you indicate in your stretch article.
But i will now give you a good dose of reality:
Republicans now sit in the governors mansions in 33 of 50 states. BOTH houses of Congress are now solidly Republican. Hillary Clinton won just 15% of the counties in the the Presidential election. The overwhelming majority of state legislators are solidly Republican (are you seeing a pattern here Nate?) and the Democrats are in real danger of becoming a regional party only. I think before you publish rubbish such as this article we would all be better served to discuss why we are rapidly becoming a one party system, whiich i think we can all agree is NOT what is in the best interest of the USA.
The fact that the Republican candidate ONLY won by 7 points is hardly an indication that the "Republicans are in real trouble" as you indicate in your stretch article.
But i will now give you a good dose of reality:
Republicans now sit in the governors mansions in 33 of 50 states. BOTH houses of Congress are now solidly Republican. Hillary Clinton won just 15% of the counties in the the Presidential election. The overwhelming majority of state legislators are solidly Republican (are you seeing a pattern here Nate?) and the Democrats are in real danger of becoming a regional party only. I think before you publish rubbish such as this article we would all be better served to discuss why we are rapidly becoming a one party system, whiich i think we can all agree is NOT what is in the best interest of the USA.
21
When you SHOULD win by 20+ points and actually only win by 7, that is a relative loss and shows that in districts that are contestable by fewer than 20 points are potentially up for grabs. It's a mathy thing.
10
Time is on the Democrats side.
Republicans destroy the middle class and those people vote Democratic.
Many of the Trump voters are on their way to dropping out of the middle class and their children will end up below middle class by today's standards.
They hoped Trump would reverse the trend but that won't happen.
The Republicans can continue their voter manipulation games but in the end they will be overwhelmed.
Republicans destroy the middle class and those people vote Democratic.
Many of the Trump voters are on their way to dropping out of the middle class and their children will end up below middle class by today's standards.
They hoped Trump would reverse the trend but that won't happen.
The Republicans can continue their voter manipulation games but in the end they will be overwhelmed.
10
What many of those focusing on the "liberal view" below are failing to recognize is, not that the Republican won, but how other Republicans will read the tea leaves from this relatively slim victory in a deep red district in Kansas. With the midterm election season just around the corner, even fewer Republicans will now be willing to sign on to the harsh, red-meat agenda of the right that has no beneficial aspects that can be sold to the working and middle classes. Such as the AHCA, which the working and middle classes easily saw through.
6
@Dan88:
That's not how the other Republicans "will read the tea leaves". They will know that in this dsitrict the conservatives were too confident and didn't try hard, while the liberals tried even harder than in Nov. 2016.
They will flock back to the GOP candidates in next election when the liberals present their harsh and demeaning agenda of the radical left.
That's not how the other Republicans "will read the tea leaves". They will know that in this dsitrict the conservatives were too confident and didn't try hard, while the liberals tried even harder than in Nov. 2016.
They will flock back to the GOP candidates in next election when the liberals present their harsh and demeaning agenda of the radical left.
1
Only in Liberal Land is a loss, a victory.
12
If the shift in this district carries throughout the rest of the country, the Democrats could pick up a 100 seat majority in the house in 2018. This is a bad sign for the GOP by any metric.
7
Shine in your moment of glory.
Now, what will your excuse be when GOP wins the mid terms easily?
Now, what will your excuse be when GOP wins the mid terms easily?
9
Should the country that elected Obama twice send even more GOP Senators to D.C., the excuses are in the preliminary stage.
The choices today are -
1. The Russians did it again, 40%.
2. Too many workers found jobs and they were too tired to vote. 30%
3. Trump's hair is an alien that broadcasts cartoons and somehow that did it. 28%
4. Bush beat Gore. 2%
The choices today are -
1. The Russians did it again, 40%.
2. Too many workers found jobs and they were too tired to vote. 30%
3. Trump's hair is an alien that broadcasts cartoons and somehow that did it. 28%
4. Bush beat Gore. 2%
9
I'm a liberal Democrat who voted for Hillary
Having said that this article is fake news and alternative facts.
Nate Cohen has demonstrated a complete inability to understand the Trump wave and continually writes slanted articles that overestimate Democrat strength
Voters - please don't believe the hype and come out and vote.
Nothing has happened to make Trump voters want to vote Democrat and we need every Democrat and sensible Independent to vote!
Don't listen to Nate and think there is any advantage on the Democrat side
Having said that this article is fake news and alternative facts.
Nate Cohen has demonstrated a complete inability to understand the Trump wave and continually writes slanted articles that overestimate Democrat strength
Voters - please don't believe the hype and come out and vote.
Nothing has happened to make Trump voters want to vote Democrat and we need every Democrat and sensible Independent to vote!
Don't listen to Nate and think there is any advantage on the Democrat side
26
What's with the utilization of the trump 'klan terms,fake news and alternative facts?These are alarming and asinine phrases,that no progressive liberal should be associated with today.It gives the patina of credibility to a mockery of reality.Trump supporters use these terms with a 'wink,wink disingenuousness,that conveys a contempt for common sense.Democrats will come out to vote,but let's be careful with our motivating phraseology...please.
4
I'm getting a little sick of watching Dems almost win elections. The margin of victory doesn't matter. If the GOP is in such trouble, then Dems need to start actually winning elections. Over and over again. In great, big numbers. Otherwise, it's all just media blather.
17
It's actualy another loss for the Democrats and the NY TImes. The Times is doing its best to spin the loss, but it's a loss that they had hopes of winning.
18
You bet.
2
This is the same message we heard before November 11th. Dems are having a very difficult time facing reality. But what else is new?
10
Is it really? Amusing.
7
President Hillary Clinton is so pleased with the Democratic victory in the Kansas election that she's flying her unicorn to Kansas to congratulate the winner
16
Hillary was last heard of when she was unable to make that 3 am call because she can't handle bad news. Another sign of her not capable of the Presidency.
8
Elections are not horseshoes.
A win for the GOP.
Get it? Better yet, write it up rather that obfuscate....
A win for the GOP.
Get it? Better yet, write it up rather that obfuscate....
10
If recent history is any guide, a wave could be forming. It will up to the Rs to show some benefit to them in power, 2.5-3% growth rate in 2017 and 2018 would be the clincher. A bombing campaign or two will not sustain Trump and the Rs for 2018. On the flip side, the Ds have not made any case that they would do any better. If you see them still stuck on "Russia-Trump" connection, BLM, or any silly progressive narratives, they will be toast again in 2018. They need a large wave, the terrain in the Senate and House are skewed towards the Rs in 2018....they only get that if they are not unpopular once again AND Trump and the Rs are deeply unpopular.
3
A 7-point margin of victory is "narrow" only in liberal la-la land.
11
Leave it to the New York Times to explain how a win is actually not a win. SMH.
14
I see that even after being wrong in predicting the Republican's demise for over a year, you folks are STILL playing that game.
I suppose, if you play that game often enough, eventually you'll be right. After all, even a blind hog finds an acorn every now and again, as they say.
I suppose, if you play that game often enough, eventually you'll be right. After all, even a blind hog finds an acorn every now and again, as they say.
11
It was a close rout...
7
A detail that national writers don't quite get right is when they say that Estes, as State Treasurer, was part of the Brownback Administration. The treasurer is a separately elected constitutional officer, not selected by the governor, and with virtually no policy making powers. I do think there was a big enthusiasm gap in this race. Estes is the quintessential "low energy" candidate, who just didn't stir up any fire. Democrats, on the other hand, particularly the Sanders supporters who carried this district for Sanders easily in March, were highly motivated and well organized in support of Thompson. And give credit to Thompson for mentioning in just about every sentence his status as a veteran. That plays well in a district with a huge military base and several defense related aircraft manufacturers.
4
So the Democrats are celebrating a narrow loss. The progressive utopian dream lives! Open borders, massive government, social justice, return of the regulatory state, single payer insurance, higher utility costs, electric cars, government imposed limits on vehicle ownership, limits on travel, creation of new victim groups and growth of existing victim groups, anarchy resulting from lack of police presence, activist judges destroying the constitution, and an entire generation of spineless, genderless, delusional, dependent graduates from institutions of indoctrination. Looking forward to it.
11
The mid terms will reset the playing field, none of the promises that were boasted will come to fruition. The losers will again be the uneducated, middle American. Its sad that real educational reform cannot be done. But this is the Republicans play, and they have never been able to stay in a position where they can influence there seems to be no middle ground.
http://www.alternet.org/culture/were-witnessing-decline-and-fall-white-a...
http://www.alternet.org/culture/were-witnessing-decline-and-fall-white-a...
1
This is the peak. The Democrats are really riled up after the recent national election. Such intensity won't last for long, and disputes will break out that dissipate the energy of the Democrats. And even so, they still can't win.
This does not bode well for the Dems in 2018.
This does not bode well for the Dems in 2018.
8
When your party has to count 7 point losses in off year- off month elections where you outspent the local guy 2 to 1 you are in deep deep trouble.
11
It is pretty laughable. Hey - maybe the Russians rigged this election too!
12
Very weak logic. The Democrats brand is as old as Tie Die.
5
A win may be narrow but it's better than the alternative...
4
Republicans can take heart they the Democrats and their allies in the biased main stream media are still in denial about the direction the country is going.
6
Doesn't the lack of Demos funding b/c they didn't think he would win reflect the same thinking that led HC not to visit certain states b/c the states could not be won, (or, lost for that matter)? Has nothing changed with the DNC since Tom Perez was elected chairman. That would be disheartening. Every election counts, every election matters. Win or lose, we need to demonstrate the effort conveys as much as the victory. Pax, jb
3
Democrats constantly trys to degrade those that dont agree with them. Think those people will really vote for them?
Signed a Deplorable, also Racist, sexist, white privilege, religious and the list goes on on what democrats have called people like me.
Signed a Deplorable, also Racist, sexist, white privilege, religious and the list goes on on what democrats have called people like me.
11
You're angry. You generalize. You demonize Democrats. Not that I'm a huge Hillary fan, but when she used that awful word, "deplorables", she meant the Arian Nation KKK folks. Of course, her dismissive attitude made it all to easy for Republicans to say it meant Republicans in general. If you're proud of being a racist, sexist person, that's on you. Also, you may not have noticed but a lot of Democrats are deeply religious as well. Also that "lock her up!" stuff is beneath you guys, frustrated or not.
3
@Richard: How do you know he's angry? How do you know he's in the "lock her up" crowd? But you do know Mrs. Clinton said "half" of Trump supporters were deplorable, and you know people like the KKK are just a tiny minority of probably less than 1%. But she said "half", and she probably meant all, anyway. You also know it exposed an arrogant streak in her, just as it didn't earn her or the Democrats any votes. No doubt it cost us tons of votes, and she also cost us the Senate and the House, and now the Supreme Court. You don't win votes by insulting people. The Democrats may be in a backwater for a generation because of her lust for power. So, why do you apologize for her?
1
The Hills said "half of the people that support Trump" before launching into her politically correct tirade. She basically called half the nation a bunch of irredeemable deplorables who were worthless humans. And she got beat. The dems might clue themselves in. Declaring 1/4 of the American people your enemy before the fighting starts is not a key to victory. You're arrogant. You're ignorant. And you're condescendingly vicious rhetoric is what is truly deplorable.
'
'
3
Excuses for defeat do not a victory make.
13
Well, MS, that depends on who you are. To folks who suffering under the yoke of lots and lots of losses, it obviously does...
4
Yep."Cause nothin' says you're back like losing again.
4
Excuses are all they have
2
Strangely reminiscent of the pre-2016 Election Day conventional wisdom. 'The GOP in disarray' theme. But that you and yours had been right! 8% chance the GOP would win the general election. I now respectfully ignore you and yours. Progressives, stop looking for hope in these weak analyses, get up off your butts, organize and win the midterm elections in 2018. Losing is for losers, whether by 7 or 27 points.
5
Despite being about as far away from you politically as is possible, I commend this post.
2
100,000 fewer Republicans voted than in the prior election, while the Democrat's total was down by 30,000. Clearly the Democrats were far more interested in the election than the Republicans were. If anything , it is a further repudiation of the Democrats. The Republicans won with a poor effort.
10
This reminds me of a Pravda report on a race in which Kennedy won, and Kruschev lost....
"US President comes in second to last. Soviet Premier does not win, but performs well, as he comes in second."
"US President comes in second to last. Soviet Premier does not win, but performs well, as he comes in second."
9
A win is a win.
5
if the Democrats could win these elections with a bit of common sense and willingness to rationally and fearlessly defend liberal democracy.The Republican party has morphed from the "Party of No!" to the "Party of Lie, Cheat and Steal" and Democrats cannot seem to deal with it in realistic terms that voters may not like to hear, but would respond if they did.
Grasping at straws. The GOP won, the Dems lost. Simple as that.
6
I don't see Democrats winning consistently again until they purge those who sneer at and mock anyone who disagrees with them. Hard to make a positive case with bile, contempt, and invective directed towards those whose votes you need, etc.
Trump's election was an aberration from an electorate fed up with business as usual. Republicans, however, have been wracking up victories at all levels of government for years and it's not because people are stupid, don't know their own best interest, gerrymandering, etc. It's because policies Democrats push are inimical to the interests of average voters.
Trump's election was an aberration from an electorate fed up with business as usual. Republicans, however, have been wracking up victories at all levels of government for years and it's not because people are stupid, don't know their own best interest, gerrymandering, etc. It's because policies Democrats push are inimical to the interests of average voters.
9
A fascinating analysis, but nonetheless the Democratic candidate did lose. Democrats need a compelling New Deal-ish message.
4
That message is now 84 years old and more stale than ever. How about a "War on Poverty 2.0"?
2
For Democrats to win, they must have leadership that clearly spells out the intent to fight for economic issues such as these:
-a minimum wage increase
-protected and expanded Social Security benefits
-real access to medical care, not an insurance band aid
-debt-free higher education.
If the Democratic establishment continues to ignore these issues, they don't have a chance.
-a minimum wage increase
-protected and expanded Social Security benefits
-real access to medical care, not an insurance band aid
-debt-free higher education.
If the Democratic establishment continues to ignore these issues, they don't have a chance.
4
And if the Democratic establishment continues to push these issues, they'll keep on getting crushed by the GOP.
4
How about spell out how they plan to pay for all the new entitlements they want to give the entitled.
6
And what will the republicans counter with?
Those "other" people will now be getting higher pay, SS benefits, better medical care, and free education.
We can't let those brown skinned others have that stuff.
So far, this response has been working out pretty well for the republicans
Those "other" people will now be getting higher pay, SS benefits, better medical care, and free education.
We can't let those brown skinned others have that stuff.
So far, this response has been working out pretty well for the republicans
Second place is still losing. Given everything that has happened since the new administration, the fact that Kansas still voted for a Republican just shows that the Democratic party really needs to find a new way to connect to the general public.
9
Indeed it's way too early to say much, but here is some recent voting data from the 4th District:
2008: +31% R
2010: +22% R
2012: +30% R
2014: +33% R
2016: +31% R
2017: +7%
2008: +31% R
2010: +22% R
2012: +30% R
2014: +33% R
2016: +31% R
2017: +7%
3
"...everything they said was accurate... But none of it was true."
A special election that generated extremely low turnout means nothing.
A special election that generated extremely low turnout means nothing.
1
Don't forget that the Democrats were also celebrating their popular vote win in the presidential election last fall.
So I guess, that makes everybody a winner. They won the popular vote and we won the presidency. So no one should complain. We all got something. And I'm really glad that we won the presidency. We can do more with that than what the Democrats can do with their popular vote win.
So I guess, that makes everybody a winner. They won the popular vote and we won the presidency. So no one should complain. We all got something. And I'm really glad that we won the presidency. We can do more with that than what the Democrats can do with their popular vote win.
2
and when in 2018 estes wins with 66% of the vote and a 30% margin than people like nate cohn and the rest of the democrats will sit down , cry their eyes out and wonder why their pipe dreams did not come to pass
7
I wish I could trust what you write here, Nate, but your failed observations on the most recent election have given me more than a mere pause when it comes to relying on Upshot articles such as these. It'll take more than a few isolated races in rural Kansas and the Atlanta exurbs before I believe we've truly turned a corner.
6
It is unclear to me why a Hillary Clinton "negative effect" in not mentioned as a possible factor when she is not in the race.
1
C'mon Nate.
Losers who lose are losers and nothing more.
Democrats are pitiful.
Losers who lose are losers and nothing more.
Democrats are pitiful.
5
I fail to see how this is a loss for the G.O.P., or anything but another win. You've got gerrymandering. The winner of the popular vote has lost the presidential election twice just since 2000. This is not high school sports, where the coach tells the players, "Even though you lost, you played well, hold your heads up." This is for keeps. And the good, reasonable people are losing, badly and for a long time to come.
4
Within 15 months of his re-election, Nixon lost two GOP seats - both in the U.S. House - which were actual referendums on his presidency. They were out and out wins in historically Republican districts one being here, in Michigan.
That this publication parrots the customary Clinton spin on every situation lost and refuses to acknowledge the bottom line, is quite unfortunate. A loss is a loss.
That this publication parrots the customary Clinton spin on every situation lost and refuses to acknowledge the bottom line, is quite unfortunate. A loss is a loss.
10
Mr. Cohn's issue here is he is writing this analysis from a thought process of what he wants to believe happened instead of what actually happened. This has plagued him during the 2014 and 2016 elections where he was way off on his analysis.
Estes performed better than Brownback and about the same as Roberts did in 2014, a huge Republican Year. The issue is he's tied to an unpopular Governor but he still won. If Pompeo ran, he would have won by 30 points.
This special election, just like the one in Georgia, will tell us nothing about next year. In 2009-2010, the house special elections went heavy to the dems yet they lost what, 63 seats?
Estes performed better than Brownback and about the same as Roberts did in 2014, a huge Republican Year. The issue is he's tied to an unpopular Governor but he still won. If Pompeo ran, he would have won by 30 points.
This special election, just like the one in Georgia, will tell us nothing about next year. In 2009-2010, the house special elections went heavy to the dems yet they lost what, 63 seats?
6
Why do Democrats persist in thinking they "won when they didn't win squat? They lost the election yesterday but think they won. Clinton lost the presidential election but they say she "won the popular vote" as if there were such a thing or in meant something. If you lose, you lose. Sticking your head in the sand and doing the same old stupid thing over and over won't change that, not if you keep actually losing. The Democrats have no leaders, no message, and they keep losing and there's no indication they will do anything but continue to lose and lose and lose for the foreseeable future until they change. "Not Trump" or "Trump is a bad guy" apparently simply is not enough, you need to give people more. Or keep having more "victories" which are nothing but losses.
7
The New York Times is a liberal point of view and doesn't know or doesn't care what the real world thinks.
8
The tide is changing. Already.
2
Oh, come on. If the Dem candidate had won, this would been reported as being monumental and a paradigm shift in the political transgression/regression of political fortunes. But, since the GOP won, don't read too much into it, because..... by winning, they lose.... or some such flebgart.
8
why haven't NYT media political analysts noted:
> in 2016 Kansas 4th District voted: 167,000 Republican; 81,000 Democratic; 275,000 total
> in 2017 special Kansas 4th District voted: 63,000 Republican (down 62%); 55,000 Democratic (down 32%); 121,000 total (down 56%)
> Gov Brownback had 26% approval in 2016 and 27% in 2017 (1st or 2nd lowest in US both years -- Christie and Bentley now edging below him)
most voters in 4th District are in Sedgewick County (Wichita):
> in 2016, Trump won 54% of Sedgewick Co for president as Pompeo (Republican) won 61% for house
> in yesterday's special election, Thompson (Democrat) won 50% of Sedgewick and Estes (Republican) won 48% -- as Republicans LOST in Sedgewick Co (Wichita) yesterday.
why quibble gigantic Republican setback in Kansas yesterday as an unknown Democratic political newbie walks out of cornfields to beat establishment Republican in Wichita? Republican apologists can mumble "a win is a win" but are they whistling past upcoming 2018 cemetery? old goat Bernie's 'bottom up' return to oldtimey FDR New Deal economics for middle class seems to work -- even in 'What's Wrong With Kansas'.
> in 2016 Kansas 4th District voted: 167,000 Republican; 81,000 Democratic; 275,000 total
> in 2017 special Kansas 4th District voted: 63,000 Republican (down 62%); 55,000 Democratic (down 32%); 121,000 total (down 56%)
> Gov Brownback had 26% approval in 2016 and 27% in 2017 (1st or 2nd lowest in US both years -- Christie and Bentley now edging below him)
most voters in 4th District are in Sedgewick County (Wichita):
> in 2016, Trump won 54% of Sedgewick Co for president as Pompeo (Republican) won 61% for house
> in yesterday's special election, Thompson (Democrat) won 50% of Sedgewick and Estes (Republican) won 48% -- as Republicans LOST in Sedgewick Co (Wichita) yesterday.
why quibble gigantic Republican setback in Kansas yesterday as an unknown Democratic political newbie walks out of cornfields to beat establishment Republican in Wichita? Republican apologists can mumble "a win is a win" but are they whistling past upcoming 2018 cemetery? old goat Bernie's 'bottom up' return to oldtimey FDR New Deal economics for middle class seems to work -- even in 'What's Wrong With Kansas'.
4
The Ds can't revive the New Deal without losing their progressive block. A new New Deal would entail going back to the dirty, environmentally less friendly industry like the coal, steel, timber, and mining sectors that most coastal Dems absolutely HATE. There a reason HRC call the region from Eastern Oregon to Rural Maine, the 'deplorables' whom she would put out of (coal)work. It played the major, and powerful base of the D party.
Given how "hyped" this was by Democrats as an election that would prove Trump has no coat tails, articles like this just come across as damage control. More left-biased noise.
11
Mr. Cohn, With all due respect, how can anyone trust anything pollsters say anymore, after the disastrous Presidential and Senate forecasts last November? We rely heavily on your analyses to plan our future actions. How many people stayed home because they were assured Clinton would win? I'm not being nasty, I'm merely asking the obvious.
8
It is just hysterical reading how this is a 'loss'. I'm sure you're still dreaming about HRC's big win in the Presidential election and the Falcons Super Bowl win.
7
Oh Nate, I hope you're right, but when it comes to election predictions, why should anyone believe anything you have to say?
8
And where was the Democratic Party during this election? Certainly not in Kansas. In fact you would be hard pressed to find the DNC anywhere these days.
Are they still busy reorganizing and developing 'new' strategy?
They had better wake up and smell the coffee. Silence is not the way to go. The DNC is missing so many opportunities on all fronts that it is really becoming worrisome. Are they totally dysfunctional?
When Trump or Ryan talk about tax reform, Democratic spokespeople should be there on the spot - They say X we say Y and here is our plan. If there is an election anywhere, the DNC should be there.
Continuation of 'radio silence' will cause the motivated to look elsewhere and soon.
Are they still busy reorganizing and developing 'new' strategy?
They had better wake up and smell the coffee. Silence is not the way to go. The DNC is missing so many opportunities on all fronts that it is really becoming worrisome. Are they totally dysfunctional?
When Trump or Ryan talk about tax reform, Democratic spokespeople should be there on the spot - They say X we say Y and here is our plan. If there is an election anywhere, the DNC should be there.
Continuation of 'radio silence' will cause the motivated to look elsewhere and soon.
3
The GOP won in Kansas. It's a loss for Trump.
Trump is doing right by launching an attack on Syria. Trump is evil.
The investigation of Trump's Russia ties is turning up misconduct by Obama appointees. The NYT yawns.
The Democrat filibuster fizzled. Trump is a bad man.
The left is obsessed with Trump.
Trump is doing right by launching an attack on Syria. Trump is evil.
The investigation of Trump's Russia ties is turning up misconduct by Obama appointees. The NYT yawns.
The Democrat filibuster fizzled. Trump is a bad man.
The left is obsessed with Trump.
9
Nate Cohn, why are you even here? I can't believe the NYTimes is still giving you space to spin bizarre, upside-down theories after your disastrous failure in November.
I believed in you and the methods of your kind then but not now. I followed you during previous elections and touted your website confidently to friends and strangers alike. I checked in almost daily and your "poll of polls" had Clinton winning even in the early morning hours of Election Day as I prepared to work at my polling place. I turned my phone off as polls opened, trusting you. It was only late in the afternoon when I turned it on to assist a lost voter that I discovered frantic messages from East Coast friends that you had spectacularly failed.
And now you say Democrats are winning even though they lost? Huh?! This is a big disservice to progressives navigating reality amid the smoking ruins of the Great Society. You seem to think nothing of the damage your industry is doing. Had you left your blue state perch and actually polled real people in swing states, the Democratic party would have had truth, a clear picture of what was really going on, and been able to adjust tactics in critical areas instead of coasting on your bogus proclamations. I understand there were other factors in Clinton's loss but one of the biggest is antiquated, blue-state biased polling methods.
Please, for the good of the country, stick to sports or some other statistical game that won't destroy my remaining decades.
I believed in you and the methods of your kind then but not now. I followed you during previous elections and touted your website confidently to friends and strangers alike. I checked in almost daily and your "poll of polls" had Clinton winning even in the early morning hours of Election Day as I prepared to work at my polling place. I turned my phone off as polls opened, trusting you. It was only late in the afternoon when I turned it on to assist a lost voter that I discovered frantic messages from East Coast friends that you had spectacularly failed.
And now you say Democrats are winning even though they lost? Huh?! This is a big disservice to progressives navigating reality amid the smoking ruins of the Great Society. You seem to think nothing of the damage your industry is doing. Had you left your blue state perch and actually polled real people in swing states, the Democratic party would have had truth, a clear picture of what was really going on, and been able to adjust tactics in critical areas instead of coasting on your bogus proclamations. I understand there were other factors in Clinton's loss but one of the biggest is antiquated, blue-state biased polling methods.
Please, for the good of the country, stick to sports or some other statistical game that won't destroy my remaining decades.
5
Is it just desperation? When is a loss ever a win? When is 7 points ever close?
8
Sergio Garcia won this past weekend by one stroke but he still was considered the winner. Dems outspent the Republicans 3 to 1 and still lost. Just like last November....
7
Let's be real: the GOP could have won this election with 100% of the vote and the author would be squealing about what a terrible defeat it was for the GOP.
5
But it was a close landslide.
Since 2008 Democrats seats in the House plummeted from 256 seats to 194.
U.S. Senate seats fell from 55 to 46.
Democratic governerships also became a rarity during this eight-year period, slipping from 28 to 16.
Also a loss of 958 state legislative seats for Democrats.
So when a Dem has a 7% loss in a Kansas Congressional special election this is something to cheer about.
NY Times - But the Kansas result is not a great sign for the Republicans, and it’s hard to dismiss.
It was the Russians!
Since 2008 Democrats seats in the House plummeted from 256 seats to 194.
U.S. Senate seats fell from 55 to 46.
Democratic governerships also became a rarity during this eight-year period, slipping from 28 to 16.
Also a loss of 958 state legislative seats for Democrats.
So when a Dem has a 7% loss in a Kansas Congressional special election this is something to cheer about.
NY Times - But the Kansas result is not a great sign for the Republicans, and it’s hard to dismiss.
It was the Russians!
6
I love it, Harry K. A "close landslide?" That's a beauty. Bravo...
1
Spin it all you want, Nate. The Republican's won and the Democrats got the participation trophy. Again.
8
The guy who won looks like a scandal waiting to happen. They deserve what they get.
1
The same enlightened DNC that thought Hilary was a slam dunk decided that a Kansas Democrat had no chance and failed to support him. The result? The Republicans poured money and big names into the race and kept the House seat. Democrats are the majority in this country yet DNC manages to loose just about every time. Those of us who used to think of our selves as Democrats NEED a victory. Sadly, we have no authority to toss out the feckless DNC leadership.
3
Democratic Logic:
Democrats win = Democratic mandate
Republicans win = no Republican mandate because of margin of victory = Democratic mandate/ requirement for bi-partisanship
Democrats win = Democratic mandate
Republicans win = no Republican mandate because of margin of victory = Democratic mandate/ requirement for bi-partisanship
6
a win is a win. Not that i like the outcome. Enough people remain bamboozled by the GOP, or entrenched in their hatred of Dems, the party that acts like it cares both for freedom and our fellow citizens.
1
"a win is a win"--as someone famously said after the Iowa Democrat primary. Hmmm...I wonder who that was.
2
Republicans will take "losses" like these all day long. All day long.
9
So Tom Perez, the national Democratic Party, and the Kansas Democratic Party refused to support the Democratic candidate in any way?
Is there any wonder that satisfaction with the Democratic Party was so poor in 2016 that 43% voted for someone other than the candidate they chose, in the primary?
Shame on all of them. For too long Democratic Party leadership has ignored the people, realizing they had nowhere else to go except the GOP. Well, they abandoned the working class long enough to lose them to the GOP. 2016 should have been a major wake-up call.
It's time for the Democratic Party to get new leadership. Tom Perez, who wouldn't support Thompson, is not it.
Did this have something to do with the fact that Thompson was a Bernie Sanders supporters? If true, it's even worse in what it reveals about Democratic Party leadership.
Democratic Party has a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. This seat could have been ours, if they had sent a high-profile Democrat to stump, and a little cash.
Is there any wonder that satisfaction with the Democratic Party was so poor in 2016 that 43% voted for someone other than the candidate they chose, in the primary?
Shame on all of them. For too long Democratic Party leadership has ignored the people, realizing they had nowhere else to go except the GOP. Well, they abandoned the working class long enough to lose them to the GOP. 2016 should have been a major wake-up call.
It's time for the Democratic Party to get new leadership. Tom Perez, who wouldn't support Thompson, is not it.
Did this have something to do with the fact that Thompson was a Bernie Sanders supporters? If true, it's even worse in what it reveals about Democratic Party leadership.
Democratic Party has a history of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. This seat could have been ours, if they had sent a high-profile Democrat to stump, and a little cash.
4
Horseshoes and hand grenades, though I wish it were otherwise.
1
The Democrats got fewer votes, which proves they won. I wish the Democrats many more similar victories.
3
Thompson ran a center-right, anti-Washington campaign in KS-4 and lost.
Would the unhappy progressive base allow several dozen Democrats to run in 2018 as conservatives to take back the House?
Would the unhappy progressive base allow several dozen Democrats to run in 2018 as conservatives to take back the House?
Since when did Lou Grant become Republican?
What difference does the margin make? The Republican still votes Republican. And Kansas lost its mind when they re-elected Sam Brownback after he destroyed the economy and the schools. If jobs and kids don't matter, what does?
What difference does the margin make? The Republican still votes Republican. And Kansas lost its mind when they re-elected Sam Brownback after he destroyed the economy and the schools. If jobs and kids don't matter, what does?
2
Is there hope for Kansas?
Yes, for Kansas.
For Democrats, no.
For Democrats, no.
2
Seven points is not competetive.
1
'When we lose, we win', or, 'when you win, you lose'. Sounds about right...to certain ears.
2
looking at past elections 2010 to 2016 you find that voter participation varied from 203383 voters to a high point of 275251 , during this time pompeo gathered between 58.79% and 66.6% !
compare this to the 120897 people who showed up this year and you see why this election result can not be used as a indicator at all !
compare this to the 120897 people who showed up this year and you see why this election result can not be used as a indicator at all !
Democrats continue to deny reality. They just can't grasp that the rest of the country isn't with them on their leftist, identity politics ideology. The Democrat Party has hemorrhaged 1,042 elected legislative seats at the state and federal level since 2008 and 2018 won't be what they expect either. Keep it up Democrats. Just keep telling yourselves "This is a win for us!" I'll just keep adding to that 1,042 number of lost seats.
2
Another gray haired overweight white republican, he'll fit right in to the point of being invisible.
1
I'm in the 4 th congressional district. LOCAL news is reporting that the turn-out for the special election was" around 20 % ". This was a winnable race. It's ALL about whose side turns out, every time. Registration in this district: R vs D, 2/1. Seriously.
1
I live in this district and have for decades, and I sure doubt Mr. Cohn does or knows it like I do. There are so many things he misses, including the fact that Estes, while an agreeable man, has almost no personality. He’s a party insider with very little campaigning experience.
Thompson did run a great campaign and his supporters were extremely motivated. I would say that every one of them showed up and voted, while tens of thousands of registered Republicans didn’t even bother to vote. The overall turnout was low, as expected, so there’s no way to think this will translate to a fall election.
Furthermore, does Cohn seriously think that the former representative, Mike Pompeo — who won by more than 30 points last fall — would have won against Thompson by only single digits? Really?
Pompeo, who has no allegiance to Gov. Brownback, was and remains extremely popular in the 4th District and would have crushed any opponent, as he has since he was first elected. Estes is a horribly weak candidate who is tied closely to Brownback, so the national political pundits need to be far more cautious before they break out the champagne.
Thompson did run a great campaign and his supporters were extremely motivated. I would say that every one of them showed up and voted, while tens of thousands of registered Republicans didn’t even bother to vote. The overall turnout was low, as expected, so there’s no way to think this will translate to a fall election.
Furthermore, does Cohn seriously think that the former representative, Mike Pompeo — who won by more than 30 points last fall — would have won against Thompson by only single digits? Really?
Pompeo, who has no allegiance to Gov. Brownback, was and remains extremely popular in the 4th District and would have crushed any opponent, as he has since he was first elected. Estes is a horribly weak candidate who is tied closely to Brownback, so the national political pundits need to be far more cautious before they break out the champagne.
2
The Dems will be too busy hi fivin' & auditioning The Next First Woman President in '18 to bother voting.
1
This is the same column that told us last October that it would take the Republican party generations to recover from the defeat this column so coming in November 2016. While I admire those that look for silver linings; the authors of this column are delusional and seriously discredited.
6
Again NYT presents the wrong conclusion from the statistics available to everyone. NYT claims in the headline that "Voters Shifted Left". Really??? How come they didn't show the numbers to prove it?
Comparing shifts in winning margins is meaningless. That was the only data presented. What really counts, however, is the total turn out of democrats/liberals this time vs. November, 2016. If the number is about the same or less, then conclusion "shifted left' is false. The dems put more effort in getting out their vote this time than in November, 2016 simply because the party was then concentrating its efforts nationally on close races only. This district was far from it.
The downward shift in the winning margins can simply be attributed to fewer Republicans showing up than would be expected for a special election. They were just too confident, and overconfidence affects same parties alike.
A better argument is that GOP really won, considering that their voters had little interest in voting this time while their opponents were trying extra hard.
Comparing shifts in winning margins is meaningless. That was the only data presented. What really counts, however, is the total turn out of democrats/liberals this time vs. November, 2016. If the number is about the same or less, then conclusion "shifted left' is false. The dems put more effort in getting out their vote this time than in November, 2016 simply because the party was then concentrating its efforts nationally on close races only. This district was far from it.
The downward shift in the winning margins can simply be attributed to fewer Republicans showing up than would be expected for a special election. They were just too confident, and overconfidence affects same parties alike.
A better argument is that GOP really won, considering that their voters had little interest in voting this time while their opponents were trying extra hard.
3
@rimantis
An even better headline: "Democrats Lose Again. Still Cannot Understand Why."
An even better headline: "Democrats Lose Again. Still Cannot Understand Why."
1
Hope abides, but ignorance, bigotry and fear are still ascendant...
1
Democrats should have put more money in and had more boots on the ground. With a concerted effort, no district will be safe for the GOP.
3
Its the millions of fraudulent dead voters that voted that gave them their victory in Kansas.
We need an investigation!
Doesn't that sound foolish.
Of course, now you can say I read in the NY Times there was voter fraud by dead people in Kansas and be telling the (alt)truth.
We need an investigation!
Doesn't that sound foolish.
Of course, now you can say I read in the NY Times there was voter fraud by dead people in Kansas and be telling the (alt)truth.
2
I don't want to hang my hopes on people not showing up to vote, that is the Republican strategy. I want informed voters voting, and that should remove the rats from the hayloft, even in the most gerrymandered district.
1
Democrats have been reduced to declaring victory when they lose by a smaller margin than expected.
3
Mr. Cohn why should we listen to anything you say and believe what you say. You are the expert who said that Clinton had a 90% chance of winning. Had you bothered to drive out to places like Scranton, PA. before the election you would have seen hundreds of Trump signs and no signs for Clinton. The same for places in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana. It amazes me that you were not fired.
2
What's wrong with Kansas? The GOP won. The NY Times makes it look like a Dem victory. What's wrong with the NY Times?
3
So this is what a Republican "loss" looks like -- and a Democratic "victory". . . Reminds me of the story about Adlai Stevenson when he was running for president. Someone said, "Governor, you have the support of every thinking voter." "That's good to hear," said Adlai, "but I need a majority to win."
6
Yet another victory for President Trump and the GOP! I hope the Left doesn't get too dizzy trying (and failing) to spin this into a defeat
3
Yeah, those danged Repubs just keep racking up the losses. They've lost so much in the last several elections that they now have the White House, the Senate, the House of Representatives, and a large majority of the governorships and houses in the states. Losers! Keep your heads up in those clouds, liberals! Those of us with our feet on the ground really like it.
2
That's okay. The Russians can help out the GOP in the 2018 and 2020 elections.
Yup, the good news for me is the Democratic candidate got 47% or so of the vote in a very red state. The bad news is Estes still won by five percentage points. So let's not proclaim some kind of mass awakening or some surging wave of populism in the great state of Kansas just yet. Where are Dorothy and Toto now that Kansas really needs them?
2
Elections are all about turnout !
In this election overall turnout was much lower than in any previous election but if you assume that Democratic voters were more energized in this election and that this translated into a higher turnout of democratic voters than the result is actually very bad news for democrats as in 2018 the lopsided higher turnout will be offset by equally or even more energized conservative voters
In this election overall turnout was much lower than in any previous election but if you assume that Democratic voters were more energized in this election and that this translated into a higher turnout of democratic voters than the result is actually very bad news for democrats as in 2018 the lopsided higher turnout will be offset by equally or even more energized conservative voters
Democratic Leaders are out of touch with Kansas. As long as the Democratic platform insists that there is no room for compromise on abortion, and as long as they insist that LGBT issues are a mainstream topic they will continue to lose in Kansas. While Brownback is despised for what he has done to Kansas financially, he is a white Catholic who opposes LGBT rights and abortion. That is enough for most Kansans to vote Republican. Democrats don't need to reverse their positions, but they need to realize that most Kansans disagree with their message. That is a problem for them in Kansas and nationwide. Better look in the mirror and, like Republicans have done, change the way you do business.
7
A woman's health decisions are her own. Do you think the government should have a right to demand you give up one of your kidneys to save the life of an actual person who is a tissue match with you?
Quit trying to impose your religious view about personhood on people who don't agree with it.
Quit trying to impose your religious view about personhood on people who don't agree with it.
1
A party should not change its message or tune just to get voters. Protecting women's right to abortion and protecting LGBTQ rights are about protecting simple human rights. The Democratic party should in no way change their message on these topics just to pander to people who do not support human rights.
2
I did not say that I agree with the GOP position on abortion or LGBT rights. What I said was that Many Kansans do agree with them, enough that they keep winning elections. You can be right about an issue, but if you message it the wrong way you will turn people against you. This is what the Democrats have done. They come across as all knowing and arrogant. Republicans have figured out a message that wins elections. Democrats need to work on their message.
Seven or eight points is not 'close' in America elections.
And considering the vagaries and circumstances, who turns out, and the specific environment of each new candidate, one man's election cannot be seen as a precedent.
It is more suggestive of tactics: the contender had a message, the Republican did not.
And considering the vagaries and circumstances, who turns out, and the specific environment of each new candidate, one man's election cannot be seen as a precedent.
It is more suggestive of tactics: the contender had a message, the Republican did not.
5
In a deep red district in Kansas it is.
1
The Dems targeted their national grass roots campaigns in a single district for a special election that gets low turnout. And the Rep candidate had an unpopular governor around his neck.
It is unclear if it was competitive at any point. It was ambiguous enough that the Republicans ran an ad and sent Ted Cruz.
The Democrats can't sustain that level of involvement for more than a handful of candidates. Georgia 6th, which features many Republicans running with minimal funding against effectively a single well-funded Democrat is also not indicative.
It is unclear if it was competitive at any point. It was ambiguous enough that the Republicans ran an ad and sent Ted Cruz.
The Democrats can't sustain that level of involvement for more than a handful of candidates. Georgia 6th, which features many Republicans running with minimal funding against effectively a single well-funded Democrat is also not indicative.
5
republicans are not humbled, nor are they that much concerned.
They do everything in their power to achieve the 50%+1 victory, to then govern as if they had gotten 100% of the vote with a clear mandate. Redistricting and gerrymandering have made them almost untouchable. Control at the local level, on up to the Governorship has enhanced that overall.
The only chance to reverse it, is to win and win big during the census year election, which isn't until 2020. Until then, we are stuck with the radical right having monopolized power,
Painful.
They do everything in their power to achieve the 50%+1 victory, to then govern as if they had gotten 100% of the vote with a clear mandate. Redistricting and gerrymandering have made them almost untouchable. Control at the local level, on up to the Governorship has enhanced that overall.
The only chance to reverse it, is to win and win big during the census year election, which isn't until 2020. Until then, we are stuck with the radical right having monopolized power,
Painful.
26
I love how the party that once had control of the House for a more than 40 year span - during which time it lost some of the most lopsided national elections in our history - complains about imaginary gerrymandering.
4
As opposed to Dictator Obama, who stole 2 elections and governed like he was a tyrant king and issued orders left and further left
GOP Gerrymandering: Another Liberal Talking Point Put to Rest.
http://cookpolitical.com/file/Cook_Political_Report_Partisan_Voter_Index...
http://cookpolitical.com/file/Cook_Political_Report_Partisan_Voter_Index...
3
As long as Republicans win the seats, they are making the laws. Close only counts in horseshoes. So, not so much a loss for them as the article states, but it is a loss for the country to have these destructive ideologues in power.
19
I lived and worked in Kansas for over twenty years. The article and its headline are misleading. This special election was actually a win for the GOP and for President Trump. Estes was tied to and viewed by some as Gov. Brownback's right hand man. That would make him a target in some circles in KS no matter who was president. Kansas, as the article aptly noted, has three political parties in reality. The Democrats, mainline Republicans (such as Bill Graves) and the staunch conservatives (such as Sam Brownback). For the GOP to get a solid but not huge win in a special election shows much more unity and energy in the GOP than some on the left were hoping existed.
24
What kind of article is this?
Says that you cannot tell much from special elections. Then tries to tell a lot from the one in Kansas, saying that it does not bode well for Republicans. Then says that we will have to wait and see how things go in Montana and Georgia. Then ends with a monster weaseling about how the Kansas election is not inconsistent with the possibility of the 2018 election being a wave election for the Democrats.
Haven't political pundits learned a lesson from the 2016 election? That is, predicting results from scant evidence is a fool's game. Maybe we are the fools who read this kind of article, which really says nothing that we did not already know.
Says that you cannot tell much from special elections. Then tries to tell a lot from the one in Kansas, saying that it does not bode well for Republicans. Then says that we will have to wait and see how things go in Montana and Georgia. Then ends with a monster weaseling about how the Kansas election is not inconsistent with the possibility of the 2018 election being a wave election for the Democrats.
Haven't political pundits learned a lesson from the 2016 election? That is, predicting results from scant evidence is a fool's game. Maybe we are the fools who read this kind of article, which really says nothing that we did not already know.
25
It's the kind of article written not by a journalist, but by a hyper-partisan advocate who is desperately trying to get his side to think they won something when in fact they lost. Again.
3
Kansas voters reflexively vote for whomever has an (R) after their name on the ballot. It is ingrained, it is unthinking.
The advertisements for James Thompson gave his background and some history about who he is. The advertisements for Ron Estes told the story of James Thompson, the person who is more liberal than the most liberal people in Washington D.C. James Thompson will raise your taxes! James Thompson supports Obamacare! James Thompson supports abortion and even wants government tax dollars to perform abortion!
One of the pro Estes' commercials said that James Thompson supports abortion when the parents don't like the sex of their baby. Thompson protested this commercial saying he has never remotely said anything like that. Ron Estes' response was that the advertisement was sponsored by an outside private group and that he had no control over the content of such advertisements.
The telling thing to me was that in all Ron Estes' advertisements, there was little about who he is and what he believes - only that he is not the scary uber liberal James Thompson. Scare tactics is all that was offered. But for Kansans, that's enough.
After seeing Estes' performance in one of the candidate's debates, I think that Kansas has dutifully served up a compliant Republican nothingburger to be our congressman for the 4th district. Sad
The advertisements for James Thompson gave his background and some history about who he is. The advertisements for Ron Estes told the story of James Thompson, the person who is more liberal than the most liberal people in Washington D.C. James Thompson will raise your taxes! James Thompson supports Obamacare! James Thompson supports abortion and even wants government tax dollars to perform abortion!
One of the pro Estes' commercials said that James Thompson supports abortion when the parents don't like the sex of their baby. Thompson protested this commercial saying he has never remotely said anything like that. Ron Estes' response was that the advertisement was sponsored by an outside private group and that he had no control over the content of such advertisements.
The telling thing to me was that in all Ron Estes' advertisements, there was little about who he is and what he believes - only that he is not the scary uber liberal James Thompson. Scare tactics is all that was offered. But for Kansans, that's enough.
After seeing Estes' performance in one of the candidate's debates, I think that Kansas has dutifully served up a compliant Republican nothingburger to be our congressman for the 4th district. Sad
10
SCE:
The same " It is ingrained, it is unthinking." argument applies to democrats in states like CA and Mass. And there it is meaningless in the attempts to interpret this election.
And it's also meaningless to maintain that "Kansas has dutifully served up a compliant Republican nothingburger". The dems have been sending plenty of nothingburgers to congress to blindly and dutifully support Obama's agenda.
The same " It is ingrained, it is unthinking." argument applies to democrats in states like CA and Mass. And there it is meaningless in the attempts to interpret this election.
And it's also meaningless to maintain that "Kansas has dutifully served up a compliant Republican nothingburger". The dems have been sending plenty of nothingburgers to congress to blindly and dutifully support Obama's agenda.
1
I wouldn't put too much stock in an election in a state that still battles over teaching evolution in the schools. This is not an electorate informed about issues. It runs more on its prodigious gut.
21
A quick google search revealed that 77% of Americans believe in angels. That is our electorate. If Democrats haven't learned that those are the people who feel alienated by the elite, intelligentsia leadership of the Democratic party, there will be no winning elections. Yes, there are many people ignorant of issues that matter, but they vote and are easily manipulated. How many people vote Republican simply because the Republican part is anti-choice and therefore considered the party of Christian values, even though Democrats represent more Christian values than Republicans ever did? It's time to start doing what the Republicans have done for decades, exploit the American public's ignorance and get them to vote Democratic.
10
I love arrogant little twits like Barry who can't make a comment without insulting someone who disagrees with him. Are your beliefs so fragile that you need to mash those who do not agree with you Barry? I feel sorry for you but still enjoy the fact that your party is a rump, TRUMP beat the daylights out of Hillary. So go pound sand during your evolution classes you silly jerk.
2
Right! Keep denigrating other Americans because it has worked so, so well.
2
So - in toto - the Republican candidate beat the Democratic candidate - another in a long chain of elections where the Republican candidate beat the Democratic candidate.
Another in a string that has grown to a grand total of a net loss of 1,042 state and federal Democratic posts, including congressional and state legislative seats, governorships and the presidency.
Just checking - that didn't come across quite so clearly in the actual article.
Another in a string that has grown to a grand total of a net loss of 1,042 state and federal Democratic posts, including congressional and state legislative seats, governorships and the presidency.
Just checking - that didn't come across quite so clearly in the actual article.
27
Disgraceful article. The Democratic Party meme that when you lose an election to a Republican you really won, is getting way out of hand.
Unless the party can shake off this kind of thinking, we will be stuck with Trump for another 4 years - assuming we survive that long.
It's high time to find out why people vote for Republicans, and figure out a strategy to draw in those voters.
Shutting up about "gun control" would be a great start. Real gun control is making sure Trump doesn't to continue to control our Military after 2020
Unless the party can shake off this kind of thinking, we will be stuck with Trump for another 4 years - assuming we survive that long.
It's high time to find out why people vote for Republicans, and figure out a strategy to draw in those voters.
Shutting up about "gun control" would be a great start. Real gun control is making sure Trump doesn't to continue to control our Military after 2020
15
So the Republicans won. right? The Democrats lost. Right? Got it.
Good reporting.
Good reporting.
25
Who was the candidate for the Democrats? Was he (or she) particularly impressive? Were they liberal, moderate or conservative?
I would think these factors need to be assessed before Democrats get their hopes up too much.
I would think these factors need to be assessed before Democrats get their hopes up too much.
5
i wouldn't get too enthused here--all it means is that the Billionaire Boys & Girls Club will pour more money in to political races and more elaborately confuse the minds of voters. Thank you Justice Roberts.
9
How many times are we going to warn about "dire circumstances for the GOP" only to have them sweep the board before we learn that voter ID laws and gerrymandering DO NOT CARE about trends. Republicans in the House have all the support they need from their cheating governors and state legislatures.
Enough with the "things sure are looking bad for the GOP!" rhetoric. Didn't you read the NYTimes Magazine story about what historians got wrong about Trump? At the end of the day, the racists will win. They always have. They cheat and it's helped them this far. Why would they quit a winning strategy?
Enough with the "things sure are looking bad for the GOP!" rhetoric. Didn't you read the NYTimes Magazine story about what historians got wrong about Trump? At the end of the day, the racists will win. They always have. They cheat and it's helped them this far. Why would they quit a winning strategy?
21
Sorry - I've seen dirt kicked on the GOP's grave too many times to get excited over this.
15
Let's not get our hopes up, liberals/sane people/proponents of democracy or fact-based reality. After this past election cycle, why think there is any rhyme or reason to the results here. People get outraged by Trump and then settle down a day later and support him or, at least, do not act against the interest of the Republican party. It's early and people are stupid and forgetful. We shouldn't see any hope here nor should we be grasping at straws.
14
I'll believe the Democrats are on the way up when I see them actually win some elections. They've shown a remarkable ability of late to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
9
President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tax plan for the nation is similar to Gov. Sam Brownback's self-proclaimed "real-live experiment" tax plan enacted in 2012.
Both plans include a rate cut for individual income tax and cuts for business income, analysts say.
Kansas faces a nearly $350 million budget gap for the current fiscal year, which runs through June. The budget gap has forced the state to make cuts to most state agencies, the state pension system, highway projects and universities.
In September, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ranked Kansas 50th in the nation for employment growth, manufacturing hours worked, unemployment rate and wage growth. An economist with the Washington-based, low-tax advocate Tax Foundation told Mississippi lawmakers evaluating planned tax cuts that Kansas is "an example of what not to do in tax reform."
Meanwhile, some legislators say they will push for the state to roll back the tax cuts next year, and the state budget director said last week that raising taxes is not out of the question.
8
In September, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ranked Kansas 50th in the nation for employment growth, manufacturing hours worked, unemployment rate and wage growth. An economist with the Washington-based, low-tax advocate Tax Foundation told Mississippi lawmakers evaluating planned tax cuts that Kansas is "an example of what not to do in tax reform."
===================
Tellingly, you don't cite any references for this.
Kansas's unemployment rate is currently 4%, ranking 17th in the US
https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm
Kansas's GDP growth for 3Q 2016 (latest available) was 3.9%
Higher than the US average and higher than economic leaders like California and New York.
https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/qgsp_newsrelease.htm
Progressives think Kansas is a basket case and it isn't. It has had problems because Boeing shut down facilities in Wichita.
===================
Tellingly, you don't cite any references for this.
Kansas's unemployment rate is currently 4%, ranking 17th in the US
https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm
Kansas's GDP growth for 3Q 2016 (latest available) was 3.9%
Higher than the US average and higher than economic leaders like California and New York.
https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/regional/gdp_state/qgsp_newsrelease.htm
Progressives think Kansas is a basket case and it isn't. It has had problems because Boeing shut down facilities in Wichita.
Boeing shut down its remaining military facility in Wichita in 2013-14, that's true. However, that was only around 2,500 employees. The commercial work that Boeing had in Wichita is now being done by Spirit AeroSystems. Spirit was the commercial spinoff from Boeing Wichita and always had the majority of employees in the Boeing/Spirit complex.
Boeing military work leaving Kansas did not help the Kansas economy for sure. What's interesting to me is why Kansas did nothing to stop Boeing from moving to Oklahoma City. Oklahoma offered lucrative incentives to Boeing as Kansas stood by and let it happen.
Boeing military work leaving Kansas did not help the Kansas economy for sure. What's interesting to me is why Kansas did nothing to stop Boeing from moving to Oklahoma City. Oklahoma offered lucrative incentives to Boeing as Kansas stood by and let it happen.
What will it take for Republicans to wake up? How could you have witnessed what been happening in our country since January 20th and still pull the lever for a Republican candidate? Is the insane chaos that is now the new normal really what the people want? What am I missing?
2
You're missing this new thing called reality. We the People spoke, we don't want ObamaCare and it's exploding costs, we don't want sky-high taxes, Big Government waste, we don't want the lying tyrant Obama colluding with Mexico to flood America with violent illegal aliens and refugees. We are tired of Obama lying about removing chemical weapons from Syria and preventing Iran from getting nukes. We are tired of Obama murdering our police officers. We are tired of the traitor Obama labeling terrorist attacks as workplace violence that would be prevented if only he abolished the Second Amendment by executive order and confiscated all weapons of every kind. we are repulsed by the left's lies of President Trump colluding with Russia to hack the election. It never happened!!
5
Larry just showed you what you are missing. These are not people with a grasp of reality. They keep voting against their own (and the nation's) interests because they actually think this way, and believe these things. Rational argument and plain evidence will not make an impression on this mindset.
And Sandy Hook was a hoax, Brietbart is an unbiased, reliable news source, McVeigh and the Bundy family are true patriots, and 3 million illegals voted in November, I suppose? I am just sorry I have to share my country with people like you.
Unless the Democratic PArty develops a coherent platform that doesn't drive moderates away, nothing good is going to happen.
12
Not at all - Dems did not show up. Anyone heard from Pelosi, Shumer, or anyone else? Nope? Same old same old...DNC is very uncomfortable making people uncomfortable.
We have a stolen election, helped by our primary enemies, who have executed a soft coup to gain the White House. What my friends do you think the Republicans would be doing under this scenario? Plenty - they would shut down Washington, even if they were in full minority.
The current crop of "leaders" in the DNC are nothing more than poll-reading coasters who occupy their positions just to occupy them - no ideas, no energy, no vision, nothing. For all the billions funneled to them all they have done is fall backwards.
We have a stolen election, helped by our primary enemies, who have executed a soft coup to gain the White House. What my friends do you think the Republicans would be doing under this scenario? Plenty - they would shut down Washington, even if they were in full minority.
The current crop of "leaders" in the DNC are nothing more than poll-reading coasters who occupy their positions just to occupy them - no ideas, no energy, no vision, nothing. For all the billions funneled to them all they have done is fall backwards.
7
Democrats collectively reap what they sow which isn't much!
The support of the Democratic Party both in terms of money, and manpower always seems to be too little, too late which explains the lack of success they have and why they are trending as the minority party in Congress. Also, Democrats are just waking up to the fact that if you can control statehouses and governorships, you are going to be successful in congressional elections.
What is particularly infuriating today is that public activism is extraordinary but the Democratic Party doesn't have the sense to harness and capitalize on this once in a generation enthusiasm.
In Kansas, Thompson knew he was running a competitive race and he was begging for support from the DCCC and DNC but of course it came too little, too late.
In Georgia's Sixth, Republicans are in panic mode and pouring a ton of money into the race. Democrats, not counting individual contributions, are providing relatively tepid support.
If you or someone you know wants to run as a Democratic candidate in a red district, you know two things - it will be an uphill battle and you will receive little support from the Democratic Party. Would anyone blame you for not running? Don't forget that more than half the battle is finding and recruiting really sharp and qualified candidates to run.
The support of the Democratic Party both in terms of money, and manpower always seems to be too little, too late which explains the lack of success they have and why they are trending as the minority party in Congress. Also, Democrats are just waking up to the fact that if you can control statehouses and governorships, you are going to be successful in congressional elections.
What is particularly infuriating today is that public activism is extraordinary but the Democratic Party doesn't have the sense to harness and capitalize on this once in a generation enthusiasm.
In Kansas, Thompson knew he was running a competitive race and he was begging for support from the DCCC and DNC but of course it came too little, too late.
In Georgia's Sixth, Republicans are in panic mode and pouring a ton of money into the race. Democrats, not counting individual contributions, are providing relatively tepid support.
If you or someone you know wants to run as a Democratic candidate in a red district, you know two things - it will be an uphill battle and you will receive little support from the Democratic Party. Would anyone blame you for not running? Don't forget that more than half the battle is finding and recruiting really sharp and qualified candidates to run.
6
The national Democratic party has still not learned its lessons from the disastrous 2016 elections. While trumpeting the candidacy of Jon Ossoff in Georgia and using that election to raise millions of dollars, national Democratic organizations completely ignored the candidacy of James Thompson in Kansas.
As a consistent donor to Democratic candidates around the country, I'm on the email distribution lists for several national Democratic organizations. Yet among the hundreds (or maybe thousands!) of emails I have received from them since January, somehow none saw fit to mention the Kansas race or the need to support Mr Thompson. Instead, I found out about the race the day before the election, reading Reuters and the NYT.
News flash to the Democrats: stop sending me a dozen emails per day asking for unrestricted funds for unnamed candidates. Start communicating actual information about races and candidates I can fund directly, and political events that I can participate in!
As a consistent donor to Democratic candidates around the country, I'm on the email distribution lists for several national Democratic organizations. Yet among the hundreds (or maybe thousands!) of emails I have received from them since January, somehow none saw fit to mention the Kansas race or the need to support Mr Thompson. Instead, I found out about the race the day before the election, reading Reuters and the NYT.
News flash to the Democrats: stop sending me a dozen emails per day asking for unrestricted funds for unnamed candidates. Start communicating actual information about races and candidates I can fund directly, and political events that I can participate in!
9
While trumpeting the candidacy of Jon Ossoff in Georgia and using that election to raise millions of dollars, national Democratic organizations completely ignored the candidacy of James Thompson in Kansas.
=======
Yes, Ossoff - the candidate who doesn't even live in the district where he's running
=======
Yes, Ossoff - the candidate who doesn't even live in the district where he's running
1
I thought NYTIMES was out of the prediction business? Do we need to tell Democrats that things look bleak for Republicans, again? Come on, we just learned this lesson six months ago.
19
Hard to fathom why Republican candidates could win at all in Kansas, considering the disastrous governorship of Sam Brownback. What is wrong with Kansans?? Despite all that is going on in D.C. and all the yelling and screaming at town meetings across the country, Republicans are still voting against their best interests, including this most recent election sending Estes to Congress.
9
No fan of Republicans, but I'll hold out for the actual results before I put too much faith in this claim.
5
Hopefully, this is the first sign of making Donald Trump a half-term POTUS.
2
Hopefully, this is the first sign of making Donald Trump a half-term POTUS.
Maybe your delusions are caused by the lead in your Pittsburgh water. President Trump isn't going anywhere for the next 8 years!
Maybe your delusions are caused by the lead in your Pittsburgh water. President Trump isn't going anywhere for the next 8 years!
3
More than fifty million fetuses have been "eliminated" since 1973.
Suppose that these 50 million had been allowed to live, and knew what the Democrats had planned for them, how exactly do you think they would vote?
It would take a century before the Democrats won anything of substance.
It looks like the Democrats were smart to eliminate all these votes against them.
Suppose that these 50 million had been allowed to live, and knew what the Democrats had planned for them, how exactly do you think they would vote?
It would take a century before the Democrats won anything of substance.
It looks like the Democrats were smart to eliminate all these votes against them.
3
Perhaps you should study up on who has had abortions. Many Republican women have had abortions. They were the ones to decide what was best for them. All that the Democratic party has done is to fight for the right of any woman, of any party, to choose for herself. Your logic is flawed.
A classic "Wet streets cause rain" conclusion by the New York Times. What if the Republicans simply fielded a poor candidate who ran an uninspiring race based partly on over confidence? Does this scenario sound familiar?
10
Yes, the Gell-Mann Amnesiac Syndrome
Where else can you claim victory even after losing? Maybe the WWE. It s difficult to claim objectivity in the face of such blatant spin. The real story is that after taking to the streets, the Democrats still cannot dislodge the balance of power in Congress. "So far, Democrate are passing the test". News flash, they lost, which the last time I looked, was the same as failing, not passing. Good thing Nate Cohn doesn't run the DMV.
10
Seven points is considered a close race by the NY Times. Stop spinning. A win is a win.
10
Who cares about moral victories? Hillary Clinton had a moral victory, and we still have President Trump. Kansas just elected a Republican to the House. Full stop.
8
Gee! You won the lottery but you actually lost because you did not win the top prize. You only won the second prize. Typical progressive thinking. You can't make this stuff up!!
12
"all politics are local"
It takes until the middle of the article to mention that this guy was not a popular Republican. Maybe Kansas Repubs are as split on this guy as the Congressional Repubs are on Obamacare repeal. Personal foibles and fumbles usually count much more than "national philosophy." Todd Akin's "legitimate rape" comment led to him losing a Senate race that should have been easily won by the Republican "party". This "we lost but we really won" theme seems like grasping at straws.
It takes until the middle of the article to mention that this guy was not a popular Republican. Maybe Kansas Repubs are as split on this guy as the Congressional Repubs are on Obamacare repeal. Personal foibles and fumbles usually count much more than "national philosophy." Todd Akin's "legitimate rape" comment led to him losing a Senate race that should have been easily won by the Republican "party". This "we lost but we really won" theme seems like grasping at straws.
5
Times' news articles have become questionable enough, but the head lines are a joke, even among supporters of the paper's political views. The headline borders on absurdity--"It's still a loss for the GOP" is it? not for the next 2 years voting in the house-isn't that what counts?
The Republicans won-and there were state issues going on, but look how its spun into something else. If the Dems use outside help and money, it's OK, if the Repubs do, it's outside interference and desperation.
Can't this paper, be what it used to be-report the facts, and let us draw the conclusions? It is all so obvious, almost childish.
The Republicans won-and there were state issues going on, but look how its spun into something else. If the Dems use outside help and money, it's OK, if the Repubs do, it's outside interference and desperation.
Can't this paper, be what it used to be-report the facts, and let us draw the conclusions? It is all so obvious, almost childish.
10
All "political calculators" should have their batteries taken out and be thrown into the trash.
4
The DCCC abandoned the candidate. Plain and simple.
6
And Hillary had a 95% chance to win the election.
12
My thoughts exactly! Who is taking the NY Times seriously when it comes to forecasting election outcomes?
1
Anyone who seriously expected otherwise, was living in La La Land.
6
The importance of the congressional race in Kansas was a creation of the media and meant nothing more than Republicans, who have overwhelming voter registration numbers in this part of the state, didn't vote and Democrats did. Big deal.
The real story is what's going to happen in Georgia.
The real story is what's going to happen in Georgia.
7
How is this a loss for the GOP? With all the flurry of town hall meetings across the country, showing Democrats up in arms over everything the Trump Administration has undertaken, one would've been led to think that the Democrats would turn out at the polls en masse for a massive public rebuke of what's been going on in the country the past few months.
Naaahhhh.... (with apologies to Steve Martin)
This isn't horseshoes, and this isn't hand grenades. There was a vote and a Republican won. Again.
Huge.
Naaahhhh.... (with apologies to Steve Martin)
This isn't horseshoes, and this isn't hand grenades. There was a vote and a Republican won. Again.
Huge.
9
Actually, it is a bad sign for the Democrat propaganda machine. Somebody put together in the same photoshop the Huffington Post headline before and after the victory that was very telling. It was a very low turnout election, the Democrats used their "call everybody, bus everybody in the district" tactic to try to pull an upset and they still lost. Sorry pals, it is going to be a very long 4 years and, at this rate, probably very long 8 years for you.
9
So the election was a loss for the Reps? I think their candidate will be the one taking office, no? It is true that if the Dems can keep up this level of outrage and enthusiasm for the next 19 long months that the Reps may be in trouble in 2018.
But it is also possible that the NYT, and Cohn, are once again jumping the gun and are misleading their readers. A few examples. Remember when you said Wendy Davis was going to turn Texas blue and kick the butt of Abbott in 2014? He won by almost 20 points and essentially broke even with the Hispanic voters. Or how about the recall election of Walker in Wisconsin? He not only survived, but increased his vote total. And then there was 2016. At one point, you were saying that the Dems were likely to take over the Senate and had a good shot at a majority in the House. And of course Clinton had an 80-85% chance of being elected president. I am sure you even had articles ready to go describing his victory. Too bad you had to hit the delete button on them.
The point is, this was simply one data point in a long journey. Let's see where we are at year end.
But it is also possible that the NYT, and Cohn, are once again jumping the gun and are misleading their readers. A few examples. Remember when you said Wendy Davis was going to turn Texas blue and kick the butt of Abbott in 2014? He won by almost 20 points and essentially broke even with the Hispanic voters. Or how about the recall election of Walker in Wisconsin? He not only survived, but increased his vote total. And then there was 2016. At one point, you were saying that the Dems were likely to take over the Senate and had a good shot at a majority in the House. And of course Clinton had an 80-85% chance of being elected president. I am sure you even had articles ready to go describing his victory. Too bad you had to hit the delete button on them.
The point is, this was simply one data point in a long journey. Let's see where we are at year end.
17
It takes imagination to present a victory by the Republicans as a defeat.
But whoever said that the New York Times lacks imagination? (smile).
But whoever said that the New York Times lacks imagination? (smile).
11
The vitriol and offensive rhetoric used by the main stream media since Nov 2016, rose to unprecedented levels and Kansas voters reject it,
a 7% loss is not even close,
To the progressives in Kansas and elsewhere, "Get Over it."
POTUS Trump will be POTUS for the next 8 years. The deplorables, decamisados, rust belt residents, residents of fly over states red necks and poor white trash form a majority in the electoral college structure.
The Democrats can stuff the ballot boxes and encourage voting by illegal immigrants that result in large plurality of votes in CA, NY,MA, etc.
a 7% loss is not even close,
To the progressives in Kansas and elsewhere, "Get Over it."
POTUS Trump will be POTUS for the next 8 years. The deplorables, decamisados, rust belt residents, residents of fly over states red necks and poor white trash form a majority in the electoral college structure.
The Democrats can stuff the ballot boxes and encourage voting by illegal immigrants that result in large plurality of votes in CA, NY,MA, etc.
8
It does say something when the winner chooses not to be contrite and gracious for his victory but instead crows about defeating "the pundits," as if they're some sort of evil organization.
The current Republican line of being in a culture war against the "main stream media" and "political correctness" is starting to fall apart as people see the party is good at pointing fingers but not very effective at actually governing and getting things done.
The current Republican line of being in a culture war against the "main stream media" and "political correctness" is starting to fall apart as people see the party is good at pointing fingers but not very effective at actually governing and getting things done.
8
The echo chamber is in full play. The Dems have to rally the troops, and that is no small feat when most Dems are nodding off and unaware what's going on.
If this tendency proceeds, then it is very likely Donald Trump will be a one-term POTUS.
Obama and the democrats were routed in the regional elections of 2014, giving a strong indicator [at the time, ignored by most] that he would not elect his successor.
This happens because, historically, the American people perceives the local elections as a means to punish bad Federal governments. Obama did an awful government, bailing out the banks and leaving the bankers without punishment, hence, a rout in 2014 was expected - as it did happen.
Now Kansas was almost gone for the GOP. If the GOP loses both houses in 2018, even with all voter supression and gerrymandering, you can basically say goodbye. The irony is, this will probably make HRC come back and be an even more awful version of Obama [who was already a much worse version of Bill Clinton].
Obama and the democrats were routed in the regional elections of 2014, giving a strong indicator [at the time, ignored by most] that he would not elect his successor.
This happens because, historically, the American people perceives the local elections as a means to punish bad Federal governments. Obama did an awful government, bailing out the banks and leaving the bankers without punishment, hence, a rout in 2014 was expected - as it did happen.
Now Kansas was almost gone for the GOP. If the GOP loses both houses in 2018, even with all voter supression and gerrymandering, you can basically say goodbye. The irony is, this will probably make HRC come back and be an even more awful version of Obama [who was already a much worse version of Bill Clinton].
1
Although it's true that Kansas is a solid Republican state, something like over 40% of voters are registered Democrats. The embarrassing thing about Kansas is that the Republican voters vote for the Republican, no matter how horrible he/she is--thus the Brownback win in the latest gubernatorial election. Every Democrat in the district could have turned out to vote in this election, and the Republican still would have won. The only thing that ever changes here is that the quality of the Republican candidates (yet winners, all) gets progressively worse.
7
As someone who lives in a large city in so-called flyover country, I'm a bit horrified at the new rush to crowdfund certain local elections by liberals who don't reside in the election's district or state. It appears to be being organized by Bernie fans and the Daily Kos. I believe that this funding is going to harm upcoming Democratic candidates like Quist in Montana more than it helps him. Bernie is planning to campaign for Quist in Montana and also campaign for other Bernie-approved candidates - only Bernie-approved Democratic candidates, mind you - in red states. Surely he realizes this is simply going to anger voters who ordinarily could go either way - and they will indeed vote Republican or Libertarian out of spite.
Bernie is a love him or hate him politician; as much as some wish him to do so he's not the politician to lead a Democratic revolution in the red states. In Montana's case outsiders interfering in local politics and raising more than a million dollars online is simply going to lose the race for Quint next month, and he would have a decent shot without the help.
Do the Daily Kos donaters and Bernie not have ways they could contribute to their own community's politics with time and donations rather than interfering elsewhere? Whether they realize it or not it comes across as liberal, coastal elite interference and the sooner they realize campaigns in some areas won't win with those optics, the better chance candidates like Quist will have to win seats.
Bernie is a love him or hate him politician; as much as some wish him to do so he's not the politician to lead a Democratic revolution in the red states. In Montana's case outsiders interfering in local politics and raising more than a million dollars online is simply going to lose the race for Quint next month, and he would have a decent shot without the help.
Do the Daily Kos donaters and Bernie not have ways they could contribute to their own community's politics with time and donations rather than interfering elsewhere? Whether they realize it or not it comes across as liberal, coastal elite interference and the sooner they realize campaigns in some areas won't win with those optics, the better chance candidates like Quist will have to win seats.
13
It's an interesting dilemma.
The optics you describe are totally accurate.
And yet, there really is no such thing as "local" anymore. Local elections have more and more influence at the national level. As the lower population states continue to shrink relative to the more heavily populated, usually more Liberal states, the imbalance this creates in the Senate becomes more and more acute.
The Republican 52 seat majority actually represent about 45% of the American populace.
The optics you describe are totally accurate.
And yet, there really is no such thing as "local" anymore. Local elections have more and more influence at the national level. As the lower population states continue to shrink relative to the more heavily populated, usually more Liberal states, the imbalance this creates in the Senate becomes more and more acute.
The Republican 52 seat majority actually represent about 45% of the American populace.
4
Yet it's okay when Cruz stumps in Kansas?
Or out-of-state billionaires buy Scott Walker's elections?
Having the support of Bernie shouldn't be too damaging all things considered.
At least not as bad as having the support at this moment of either Hillary or Trump.
Or out-of-state billionaires buy Scott Walker's elections?
Having the support of Bernie shouldn't be too damaging all things considered.
At least not as bad as having the support at this moment of either Hillary or Trump.
2
@SKJ: Republicans are funded by billionaires/dark money and Democrats too. Crowdfunding may be an effective tool in the voters' arsenal. You think bringing a rubber band to a knife fight is a good idea?
2
Until the Dems back their hustling candidates, they will remain irrelevant.
10
Now if only the individuals that vote Republican would stop believing those idiotic attack ads.
6
Every time Bernie Sanders campaigns for a candidate or a proposition, it loses. If Dems want to win, keep Sanders out.
8
If Dems keep Sanders out, they will become a permanent minority. Sanders is a bedrock liberal -- in favor of universal healthcare, financial reform, peace, and human rights. People like the Clintons -- who would make passable Republicans -- disfavor universal healthcare, bow to big financial interests, and are hawks. I will say they are good on human rights -- but we Democrats can do a whole lot better than those neoliberals. Not only will we win with genuinely liberal positions -- but our victory will be worth the winning.
2
That's rich. Really rich.
I guess you're still drunk from Hillary's landslide win, coattails and all.
I guess you're still drunk from Hillary's landslide win, coattails and all.
2
I'm sorry, but a loss is still a loss, especially when the winning candidate was the state treasurer for an unpopular reactionary governor. In politics it only matter as to who gets to govern -- remember trump lost the popular vote, but he is now occupying the White House.
22
I'll believe it's a larger problem when and if the electorate moves in favor of Democrats in other Districts. As various commenters have said, Kansas Governor Brownback as well as Representative Estes himself have problems, yet Estes still won without much trouble.
10
I just wish the Dem had won.
I wouldn't count the Republicans out just yet. Estes still won.
10
This shows that Democratic voters on the ground are way ahead of the hacks running the DNC. If we had aggressive leadership at the DNC this race could have been won, and it would have both sent a powerful message to Trump and the GOP, and further fired up the Democratic base.
Instead, they were hands-off until the eleventh hour. Did these people sleep through the past few months? Do they not understand how upset and engaged their base is? Or are they so stubborn and self-sabotaging that they'd rather uphold the corporatist DNC of the 1990's, than admit that progressive policies, as advocated by James Thompson and Senator Sanders, are increasingly popular with the electorate?
DNC - get on the ground and get in the game.
Instead, they were hands-off until the eleventh hour. Did these people sleep through the past few months? Do they not understand how upset and engaged their base is? Or are they so stubborn and self-sabotaging that they'd rather uphold the corporatist DNC of the 1990's, than admit that progressive policies, as advocated by James Thompson and Senator Sanders, are increasingly popular with the electorate?
DNC - get on the ground and get in the game.
The problem is that the Republican still won. A moral victory is not enough. The Democratic Party needs to start paying attention and work a lot harder. These numbers clearly show that the Democrat could've won this seat.
13
Nate, you may console yourself all you want with your "passing the test" rating. But until the Democratic Party can effectively end their isolationist status with their constituents, the problem remains. The Republican won here. i agree that each party should take nothing for granted, because we're expecting a lot from the Congress ( revising health care, infrastructure upgrades, tax reform), and it's only going to happen if these legislators start working together.
5
I am not convinced the Democrats have their act-together enough to thwart the Republicans' malice toward this country...I have deep foreboding about the future of this once-great country.
6
Democrats - Keep up the pressure but don't be obstructionists!!!! Demonstrate that we can govern!
5
Lots of noise and protesting, but no win... a win is still a win...
8
I do not consider it as a good or encouraging sign for Democrats, either. With the horrible record that Republicans have created in the past 80 days, Democrats should be winning every election in the country. But they'd do so only if they were out there fighting in the trenches. They are busy holding classroom seminars toying with abstrct theories, like on one hand and on the other. They are bad both on porpaganda and the fighting spirit, let alone having a killer's instinct. They've recently gotten themselves new faces in the DNC office in Washington, but their mantras and mentaility remain the same old - that of a loser.
7
Sure every election. Jesus
1
How is a 7% margin of victory "narrow?" Compare it to Trump's margin of victory, preferably expressed as a percentage.
8
I'll microfilm this one so I can pull it out later. Nate Cohn's analysis is either absolutely correct or incredibly wrong. I'll put the odds at about 50-50. Part of me hopes you're right. I really do. But I'd trust a coin toss more than you at this stage. I'm picturing the deflated look on the faces of political analysts everywhere last November. Face it; you're trade isn't much better than meteorology. I'd rather watch the clouds when I'm standing outside.
5
This was a loss for Democrats, who should have made a better effort.
Brownback is seeking to dismantle the state's constitution and the presidential administration is a complete disaster so far. This seat was winnable.
Brownback is seeking to dismantle the state's constitution and the presidential administration is a complete disaster so far. This seat was winnable.
6
Republicans have just as large a majority in congress as they did before this election. Any other conclusion is just Republican math.
6
The candidate in Kansas was supported by Bernie Sander.
The Corporate Democratic Part would rather lose to a right wing fanatic than win with a progressive.
Only token support days before the election.
The Democratic Party learned NOTHING from 2016.
Get ready for eight years of Trump, Republican House and Senate.
The Corporate Democratic Part would rather lose to a right wing fanatic than win with a progressive.
Only token support days before the election.
The Democratic Party learned NOTHING from 2016.
Get ready for eight years of Trump, Republican House and Senate.
17
I think we are yet to learn from the Nov 2016 debacle - not yet.
Remember the 40 point lead for Hillary.
Please just stop sounding footnotes from the hunches which does not mean anything like this smaller news .
Remember the 40 point lead for Hillary.
Please just stop sounding footnotes from the hunches which does not mean anything like this smaller news .
7
"The small and imperfect lesson ... is that the Republicans might be in quite a bit of trouble." There are so many hedges in this sentence it's disgusting. This article is wishful day-dreaming, not based in reality. Come back when you have something real to report.
12
Exactly.
The days in office are drawing to a close for my horrible congressman, Leonard Lance (R-NJ). Lance has made a career of talking like a reasonable person, all while voting like the GOP rubber stamp that he is.
Lance has a 96% record in this session of voting for the Trump agenda. Lance is on the way out.
Lance has a 96% record in this session of voting for the Trump agenda. Lance is on the way out.
3
how could the congressman have a 96% voting record for the trump agenda when trump hasn't sent any bills to congress!!
3
Did any ask Cruz about his Dad's role in the death of JFK? Trump said it, is must be true! He's got a lotta splain to do!
We've all seen this before. Dems get their hopes up, but in the end their voters just don't turn out. Given that majorities of people agree with Dem policies, the lack of Dems ability to find candidates who inspire and mobilize their constituencies to actually vote is always a frustrating reality. The fact that fear and ignorance are much more powerful motivators (as played on by these blatantly misleading GOP political ads) than hope or enlightenment is probably partly to blame. The other issue is that Dems like Pelosi, Schumer, Clinton refuse to get out of the way and allow a younger generation to share the spotlight. I admire what Pelosi and Schumer did with ACA and they are skilled legislators, but they need to recognize they are polarizing, un-inspiring personalities who should work behind the scenes and let some younger, fresher, more charismatic Dems have a chance to lead and become the faces of the party. Until the party rids itself of their sclerosis, GOP will keep winning majorities in Congress and statehouses.
11
You hit on the most important point. It is time to bring some young blood.
1
Right on the money - this should be in the Reader's Picks tab.
1
From Nate Cohn's lips to God's ears! But we have to remember that it is not unheard of for voters to turn over the Congress two years after a Presidential election to achieve balance. In recent times it's occurred in 1994, 2006 and 2010. I'm betting because of the drastic situations we find ourselves in with the Trump Administration -- with healthcare, taxes, the Supreme Court and national security -- that returning Congressional control to the Democrats next year is more likely than not.
2
What's missing here is any reporting on the turn-out. Yes, it was a special election, and spectacularly low. But Democrats got enough votes in the last two elections in this district - in 2016 and 2014 - to have won this time, even though they lost their actual races by wide margins. It could have made the difference here.
5
It's not that bad a result for Republicans considering the disaster that the Republican governor's economic policies have been. Coupled that with the Trump administration foul ups, I think 7 points indicates that they have nothing to worry about. What would have to happen that is worse than the current state economics to change minds? It would need to be an extraordinary event.
8
There was Libertarian candidate in this race as well who pulled in ~2,000 votes. Voters in this district might be moving away from the GOP but not necessarily towards the Democrats. Both sides seems to be reading far too much into this election. It's a local election with an electorate that happens to be very invested in pro-life politics. It's not a surprising win for the Republicans or a surprising lose for the Democrats.
3
Good point in re "pro-life politics." As the WaPo has noted in today's edition, "Democrats have ... never held the House without a substantial number of conservative, antiabortion Democrats." If that's true, it seems certain that candidates of that sort may be difficult to find unless the Times and its more liberal readers are incorrect in believing that the decision in Roe v Wade was welcomed by all Democrats ...
I think this article underestimates the vituperative hatred for Brownback's governing, due to his rather radical policies and tough tactics. I think people would clearly interlink a treasurer with a governor who's policies have emptied the treasury. Is similar to I think bobby jindal costing the republicans the governorship in Louisiana. I would argue this particular election was due to mostly to local politics. And I don't think the Democratic Party is doing itself a favor by jining up expectations among supporters and in the media, in really tough races. I think it's going to take more than 2 years for democrats to win the house, due to structural forces, regardless of the anger and energy of opposition.
9
Yesterday Ron Estes, the Brownback man whose wife works for one of the Koch funded "policy think tanks" won the election to replace Pompeo in congress.
In the days leading up to this special election here, we have been inundated with repellent TV commercials claiming that Nancy Pelosi needs Thompson in congress to help her raise your taxes. Sinister looking cartoons of Pelosi and Thompson come together on the screen until they are joined at the hip. The Estes campaign claimed that Thompson favored abortion based on the sex of the fetus, a downright lie. This last minute commercial buy was widely reported to have been paid for with $92,000 of out of state money from the RNC. Cruz slithered into town to help.
Timing is everything in comedy,
Also yesterday, I received a DNC fund raising letter over the autopen signature of Tom Perez saying, in part, "We are Trump's worst nightmare." I thought, actually that would be Bernie Sanders, but never mind. Then I thought, having James Thompson in the House would have helped. So, the RNCC was here, but where were the Dems? I will not abandon the Democratic Party, but I'm a little peeved with them at the moment.
In the days leading up to this special election here, we have been inundated with repellent TV commercials claiming that Nancy Pelosi needs Thompson in congress to help her raise your taxes. Sinister looking cartoons of Pelosi and Thompson come together on the screen until they are joined at the hip. The Estes campaign claimed that Thompson favored abortion based on the sex of the fetus, a downright lie. This last minute commercial buy was widely reported to have been paid for with $92,000 of out of state money from the RNC. Cruz slithered into town to help.
Timing is everything in comedy,
Also yesterday, I received a DNC fund raising letter over the autopen signature of Tom Perez saying, in part, "We are Trump's worst nightmare." I thought, actually that would be Bernie Sanders, but never mind. Then I thought, having James Thompson in the House would have helped. So, the RNCC was here, but where were the Dems? I will not abandon the Democratic Party, but I'm a little peeved with them at the moment.
43
I believe Democrats understand that Kansas is a Republican state. The chances of winning were very low, to nonexistent. They expect the race in Georgia to be closer, and want to spend their time and money on a race that may actually be won. There are going to be a number of races to fight, we need to be strategic, if we are going to take back the House and Senate. Democrats made a great showing in Kansas, that helps the rest of the country to be hopeful.
1
Watching the Democrats trying to play tit for tat in money politics sure makes me think the party is clueless. It should be telling the plutocrats "Your money is no good here."
Yes, it was a loss. But to win by only 7% in a deep-deep red Kansas district is quite inauspicious for the GOP.
It is the beginnings of a backlash against the extreme-right policy setting that is going on right now in Washington. The GOP and Trump are acting like they have a huge mandate to radically remake the federal bureaucracy and the social welfare state. Yet they have a very small margin in the Senate, can only afford to lose 16 rep votes in the House, and they lost the presidential popular vote and only squeaked on by through 80,000 extra votes in three crucial states through the Electoral College.
This a huge mandate does not make.
Plenty of Trumpsters voted for Trump because he was not going to toe the line with GOP extreme-right orthodoxy. He promised to be a moderate by making Obamacare better, by protecting them against huge tax cuts for the rich and huge budget cuts for everyone else, by bringing back jobs through infrastructure spending. But--surprise!--his budget is just more of what GOP extreme-right wingers want. His Trumpcare bill gutted provisions that protected the poor and working class and gave the rich huge tax cuts. And there's hardly been any noise regarding the longed-for infrastructure bill. Trump is proving to be more of the same, except more extreme, and most Trump voters (except for the hardcore supporters) are starting to sour.
The optics are also not helping--Trump spending that much time in Florida golfing also is not good.
It is the beginnings of a backlash against the extreme-right policy setting that is going on right now in Washington. The GOP and Trump are acting like they have a huge mandate to radically remake the federal bureaucracy and the social welfare state. Yet they have a very small margin in the Senate, can only afford to lose 16 rep votes in the House, and they lost the presidential popular vote and only squeaked on by through 80,000 extra votes in three crucial states through the Electoral College.
This a huge mandate does not make.
Plenty of Trumpsters voted for Trump because he was not going to toe the line with GOP extreme-right orthodoxy. He promised to be a moderate by making Obamacare better, by protecting them against huge tax cuts for the rich and huge budget cuts for everyone else, by bringing back jobs through infrastructure spending. But--surprise!--his budget is just more of what GOP extreme-right wingers want. His Trumpcare bill gutted provisions that protected the poor and working class and gave the rich huge tax cuts. And there's hardly been any noise regarding the longed-for infrastructure bill. Trump is proving to be more of the same, except more extreme, and most Trump voters (except for the hardcore supporters) are starting to sour.
The optics are also not helping--Trump spending that much time in Florida golfing also is not good.
11
The rush to fill those 124 vacant life-term federal judicial slots with Borkers will soon dominate the news.
11
I believe there was a libertarian in this race as well, and I wonder how that affected the results. The Kansas voters are unhappy, which is why they are breaking away from the Republicans somewhat, but that doesn't mean they're breaking toward the Democrats. They seem to have a kind of cultural faith that Democrats are big-city people who don't understand them or care about their values. But with all the sex scandals and naked corporate greed in the Republican party, they might want to give the Democrats a try. The Democrats' values are much more decent toward the little guy.
9
They're losing their children to the cities. It hurts.
The Republican won. It doesn't matter that he did it narrowly. He won. Dems have a lot of work to do.
40
Democrats simply need to be motivated and turnout for ALL elections, not just presidential ones. Had the Dems been more responsible and responsive in 2016 Hillary Clinton would be president and the Dems would have much more influence in Congress. Will they remember that in 2018?
11
Hate to say it, but I don't believe polls anymore.
11
A win is a win is a win. Sorry Nate you still need to get over your polling data from the Presidential race.
According to the Washington Post, James Thompson asked for funding from the DNC and received very little in return. He wanted the money to mail flyers to get his message out to voters.
Yet, Ron Estes gets $100,000 from the NRCC, funding from the GOP-allied Congressional Leadership Fund Super-PAC which paid for tens of thousands of get-out-the-vote robocalls, plus robocalls by Trump and Pence - all within a week of the election to counteract Thompson's grassroots efforts.
Yet, Ron Estes gets $100,000 from the NRCC, funding from the GOP-allied Congressional Leadership Fund Super-PAC which paid for tens of thousands of get-out-the-vote robocalls, plus robocalls by Trump and Pence - all within a week of the election to counteract Thompson's grassroots efforts.
18
Of course they shifted left. Over the course of some 25 legislative days, Republicans and Trump immediately showed their true "concern" for the people with their AHCA: A $600 billion tax cut for the rich paid for with 23 million less people having coverage, the gutting of Medicaid, and rising costs and less coverage for the working and middle classes.
7
You should have started your post with "Once upon a time...."
Because zero of what you say is true.
Because zero of what you say is true.
An omnibus disclaimer is not credible just because you say so George Orwell. To be credible George Orwell, you have to included specific facts as rebuttal points.
If yesterday's narrow margin of victory for Mr. Estes were attributable to Governor Brownback's unpopularity, then Donald Trump would not have won the District by 27 points last November. Brownback was equally unpopular then.
10
Estes was Treasurer of the Brownback Administration. Trump wasn't.
All politics is local, except for the presidency.
A better reference would be Pompeo's first race that he won by about 10% with no Brownback baggage. Estes' 7% looks pretty good with the burden of Brownback.
All politics is local, except for the presidency.
A better reference would be Pompeo's first race that he won by about 10% with no Brownback baggage. Estes' 7% looks pretty good with the burden of Brownback.
1
A bad sign, for which party? For the past few weeks the media mantra on this was watch out republicans, this is a going to be a democrat win...the tide is starting to turn...first Kansas then the special election on GA is next, democrats win!!! We reality is a bit different, Republicans have kept the Kansas seat and they will keep the GA seat.
14
Not really sure how this counts as a win. However, it does show that you can change voters minds. We may not be so entrenched in party politics as it would seem. Even Republican voters may be paying attention. The real test is in 2018. My bet is on Trump doing something so awful that it gives seats to the Dems in Congress.
2
Nate Cohn really lost a lot of credibility with this article.
A better comparison would have been how Pompeo did for his first election when he was not an incumbent. A quick look at Wiki indicates he got 59 per cent of the vote. Subtract a few points because of an unpopular governor, and a few points because the Democrats made a huge effort to win this.
The result? Virtually no change. Big loss for the Democrats.
A better comparison would have been how Pompeo did for his first election when he was not an incumbent. A quick look at Wiki indicates he got 59 per cent of the vote. Subtract a few points because of an unpopular governor, and a few points because the Democrats made a huge effort to win this.
The result? Virtually no change. Big loss for the Democrats.
19
No he didn't Joseph. You are just quibbling with secondary details he might have included, instead of the ones that he did. (Cohn specifically mentioned local factors and that there was a big effort by Democrats.)
And the bottom line is, a mere 5 months after Trump took this district by 27 points, the Republican only beat the Democratic by 7 points.
And the bottom line is, a mere 5 months after Trump took this district by 27 points, the Republican only beat the Democratic by 7 points.
1
Joseph, keep on talking to yourself.
1
The most disappointing aspect to me beginning with the elections, is the continued evolution of the us-vs.-them attitude. I'm right, damn it, and everyone else is wrong. And by being elected, I'm going to run my 'mandate' to the fullest, in an effort to correct what all those other great unwashed hoards have chosen to do in the past.
Even at the time of Eisenhower, Nixon, Kennedy and yes, even LBJ, there were meetings and compromises and give and take. Now, unfortunately, we see one vote margins and rare Vice Presidential voting to decide a matter, yet the outcome is a dramatic shift in the overall policies being voted upon. Not a gentle sway to see how the view is from a slightly different position.
This is not good. And much of it stems, in my opinion, from not understanding others and the unbridled greed on the part of those who are in the good old boy's club and have unique access to those who have been voted in.
Moderation in all things, Mr. Franklin penned, and it's time to let things settle down for a bit rather than tip the canoe over with all the wrestling for the oars.
Even at the time of Eisenhower, Nixon, Kennedy and yes, even LBJ, there were meetings and compromises and give and take. Now, unfortunately, we see one vote margins and rare Vice Presidential voting to decide a matter, yet the outcome is a dramatic shift in the overall policies being voted upon. Not a gentle sway to see how the view is from a slightly different position.
This is not good. And much of it stems, in my opinion, from not understanding others and the unbridled greed on the part of those who are in the good old boy's club and have unique access to those who have been voted in.
Moderation in all things, Mr. Franklin penned, and it's time to let things settle down for a bit rather than tip the canoe over with all the wrestling for the oars.
9
All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good people to do nothing. Do you want to sit down and negotiate with terrorists? The far right is a form of terrorism.
Yes, these are "good people" but they are, sorry, uneducated and blind. It isn't personal. We liberals don't wish them harm, or want them to suffer, but they do not want to compromise in any direction. They want to cram their religious beliefs down everyone's throats, they want to enforce their ideas about abortion, LGBTQ rights, women's health, pay equality and immigration everywhere. They want to trash the Constitution. They vote for people who are absolutely horrible for their own interests and don't seem to know that they don't know.
I wonder, would Martin Luther King, Jr. have gotten anywhere in a conversation with Andrew Jackson or would have he have been hanged no matter what he said? Sometimes, you have to take a stand and hold your ground. Now is that time.
Yes, these are "good people" but they are, sorry, uneducated and blind. It isn't personal. We liberals don't wish them harm, or want them to suffer, but they do not want to compromise in any direction. They want to cram their religious beliefs down everyone's throats, they want to enforce their ideas about abortion, LGBTQ rights, women's health, pay equality and immigration everywhere. They want to trash the Constitution. They vote for people who are absolutely horrible for their own interests and don't seem to know that they don't know.
I wonder, would Martin Luther King, Jr. have gotten anywhere in a conversation with Andrew Jackson or would have he have been hanged no matter what he said? Sometimes, you have to take a stand and hold your ground. Now is that time.
9
I agree with you. But your words " unbridled greed on the part of those who are in the good old boy's club and have unique access to those who have been voted in" show that you yourself have fallen victim to the very attitude you deplore.
4
Jeannette, your term "the far right" is very ambiguous and without a precise definition, it risks shutting down moderates.
If someone is a moderate, he/she is bound to (sometimes) agree with progressives, and (sometimes) agree with the right.
But if ANY time you agree with the right you are called a bigot, a racist, a xenophobe, an enemy of women's rights, etc, then you will just keep quiet and quietly support Trump.
Open dialogue is absolutely necessary. And to have such a dialogue, abusive terms like "far right" have to be kept out of the conversation.
If someone is a moderate, he/she is bound to (sometimes) agree with progressives, and (sometimes) agree with the right.
But if ANY time you agree with the right you are called a bigot, a racist, a xenophobe, an enemy of women's rights, etc, then you will just keep quiet and quietly support Trump.
Open dialogue is absolutely necessary. And to have such a dialogue, abusive terms like "far right" have to be kept out of the conversation.
What's the matter with Kansas is confusing a smirking slinking Senator Cruz with the Wizard of Oz.
Rafael Edward Cruz is no tough Texas cowboy named Ted. Cruz is an effete ephemeral Canadian Cuban American plutocrat oligarch lawyer. Cruz is a combination Wicked Witch of the West and the Winged Monkey King.
Rafael Edward Cruz is no tough Texas cowboy named Ted. Cruz is an effete ephemeral Canadian Cuban American plutocrat oligarch lawyer. Cruz is a combination Wicked Witch of the West and the Winged Monkey King.
23
As a native Texan, I must say that your comment is right on point.
1
A republican governor has basically ruined Kansas, and the citizens of Kansas still vote republican. Confused?
The last time the Kansas seat was open, in 2010, Republicans won it by a margin of 22 percent. Meanwhile, a Democrat is polling way ahead for the Georgia seat vacated by Tom Price and once held by Newt Gingrich, and a Democrat is polling ahead in the Montana seat vacated by Ryan Zinke.
Republicans cast their lot with Donald Trump, whose polling rivals Nixon's during Watergate, Reagan's after Iran-Contra, and Bush's after Katrina. Republicans who got scared about the Kansas 4th should be terrified about 2018.
politicsbyeccehomo.wordpress.com
Republicans cast their lot with Donald Trump, whose polling rivals Nixon's during Watergate, Reagan's after Iran-Contra, and Bush's after Katrina. Republicans who got scared about the Kansas 4th should be terrified about 2018.
politicsbyeccehomo.wordpress.com
So, the "energized Democrats" actually won this one, even though they lost, because their strategy of being "energized" is working? Yup, a few more wins like that and we'll be back in the driver's seat in no time!
25
Kudos to James Thompson for running a great race against big odds and doing so very well. He lost by 7%!! That's amazing. Mike Pompeo won that seat in November by 31%. And Trump won that Congressional district by 27%! !
Had the Democratic Party, which is run by imbeciles, helped Thompson earlier he may have won. Still, 2018 is right around the corner. DailyKos really helped by promoting James Thompson and his race against Estes. The New York Times ignored the story and has (like the dumb Democratic Party) only focused on Jon Ossoff. There are many lessons to be learned here and perhaps, in the future, the NY Times become as good at informing its readers about these races as DailyKos.
Had the Democratic Party, which is run by imbeciles, helped Thompson earlier he may have won. Still, 2018 is right around the corner. DailyKos really helped by promoting James Thompson and his race against Estes. The New York Times ignored the story and has (like the dumb Democratic Party) only focused on Jon Ossoff. There are many lessons to be learned here and perhaps, in the future, the NY Times become as good at informing its readers about these races as DailyKos.
24
Of course anybody that disagrees with your politics is a imbecile right?.
It seems that social media is a foreign language to the DNC - and the potential voters of 2018 will be more attuned to that form of "news distribution" than ever before in human history. We have seen that perceptions matter more than truth, so taking the high road while losing is not a solution for the dismemberment of the Republic.
As one example of the power of social media, just look at United Airlines crisis mismanagement this week.
As one example of the power of social media, just look at United Airlines crisis mismanagement this week.
It would have helped if the national Democrats had given their support earlier. Instead they were reluctant and hung back until the last minute. Such timidity cannot continue. Democrats have to show more moxie and be more pro-active.
If they actually want to make more progress, they are going to have to be more aggressive and back their party's candidate wherever and whenever they are running for office.
The Republican did so in this case. It is especially crucial in a close race, a fact that seems to be lost on the Democrats.
Come on, Democrats! Instead of waiting to win the mid-terms, get out and put your support behind candidates like James Thompson. And stop comforting yourselves by how close it was.
If they actually want to make more progress, they are going to have to be more aggressive and back their party's candidate wherever and whenever they are running for office.
The Republican did so in this case. It is especially crucial in a close race, a fact that seems to be lost on the Democrats.
Come on, Democrats! Instead of waiting to win the mid-terms, get out and put your support behind candidates like James Thompson. And stop comforting yourselves by how close it was.
22
I'm disappointed but not in the least bit surprised. We voted in Brownback twice. I expected he'd be elected Governor. His "I'll pray for you" and "I want to make a difference to people's souls" patter lines play well here. But during his campaign for re-election, it was clear that he was fiscally driving the state into the ditch. Each week more bad news hit the airwaves as tax receipts dropped MUCH more than he expected. Despite having proven his unfitness to hold a political office with real responsibilities, he managed to win re-election. The two worst things I can recall being said about his opponent is that he had visited a strip club and was a Democrat. And for that, our state signed up for more ideological fiscal amateurism.
We didn't vote for Trump in the primaries. We voted for Cruz. Cruz!!! The only guy who should scare a moderate more than Trump.
Kansas is a state that follows its beliefs. And we get our beliefs from conservative commentators and country music. If we tell you we apply our church principles in electing our politicians, we're kidding you (or ourselves). We voted for Trump for President after all. Yeah, we had to hold our nose a bit to do it, but at least he wasn't a Democrat. Because we know that Democrats hate the Constitution and church and freedom.
Anyway, we're almost done destroying our state. Now we're looking to screw up yours too, and Estes appeared to be the best qualified for that job.
We didn't vote for Trump in the primaries. We voted for Cruz. Cruz!!! The only guy who should scare a moderate more than Trump.
Kansas is a state that follows its beliefs. And we get our beliefs from conservative commentators and country music. If we tell you we apply our church principles in electing our politicians, we're kidding you (or ourselves). We voted for Trump for President after all. Yeah, we had to hold our nose a bit to do it, but at least he wasn't a Democrat. Because we know that Democrats hate the Constitution and church and freedom.
Anyway, we're almost done destroying our state. Now we're looking to screw up yours too, and Estes appeared to be the best qualified for that job.
30
Losing by 7 per centage points or 70 is the same. You lost.
As a Democrat, I am floored that they did absolutely nothing to try to win this district. A prime opportunity in front of them and they punt.
17
More than anything, this sounds to me like a referendum on Brownback and his tiny government model. When the data are in, people don't want tiny government. They want the services that government supplies. They'll even pay for it. That should be the lesson establishment Republicans take home.
7
The loss is for the entire country as we watch another complicit Republican put into office. I don't really want to read any more about the plight of those living in Republican states when they robotically vote against their own interests. And, then act forgiving of those who exploit them while continuing to judge those they know nothing about.
10
Not sure how this is a "win" for Dems, if in fact they lost. And at this point, with vote counts in Congress relatively close, why wouldn't the national party fight this out as hard as any other race? Between gerrymandering and the current weakness of the party, they should take advantage of any chance they get to win a seat. "Sad!" , no "Stupid".
9
Even after all that the gop has done to Kansas and our nation, they STILL voted for another gopper? What is wrong with Kansas, indeed. They must be crazy.
13
You might be right, but the flip side of the coin is that the Democratic Party have made no attempts to connect or identify with people who live outside of 15 of the most populated cities.
Good. For the greater good. GOP losses will be to the benefit of the left, progressives, Dems, greens, and anyone else who wants to improve lives for most people, not just the wealthy.
2
Wow. This is splitting hairs rather finely. A win is a win. A loss is a loss. No sense in celebrating an almost. Still lots of work to do before the 2018 elections...
11
As the saying goes "Almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades".
1.) The attack ads hit hard just before the election. People were influenced by them, despite their despicable lies. 2.) The "party" didn't help Thompson because it has no leadership and no strategy for the future 3.) A seven-point loss is still a loss. So what is the takeaway? Remember, Estes was a co-conspirator with Brownback in taking the Kansas economy and its public services into the toilet. Estes was directly involved in the "Doctor's and Lawyer's Tax Relief Act" which lets the wealthy pay NO state income taxes while their nurses and legal secretaries pay more. And anyone who can read knows that the GOP in Congress is so dysfunctional, it deserves its own diagnoses in the DSM. If the hell the common people in Kansas have been through since Brownback was elected didn't cause a majority of voters to elect a Democrat (or heck, even the Libertarian) this time, there really is no hope, in this state or nationally. So again what is the takeaway? I would say this election shows that people will believe anything the special interests put out in the media, the Republicans can destroy the lives of anyone they want with impunity because the voters will still keep voting them into office, and most voters are so influenced by Republican demagoguery that they don't even understand where they are: in Jonestown drinking the Koolaid and giving it to their kids.
19
Sorry. I'd love to predict demise of GOP in Kansas and elsewhere, but you are whistling past the graveyard with these predictions based on a 7 point victory, which, everywhere else, would be considered a landslide.
10
Bizarre headline,
Clearly the district was set for a close election and once again the Democratic Party machine could not muster a convincing campaign.
Keep poking around aimlessly and the midterm will be a Democratic Party disaster.
Clearly the district was set for a close election and once again the Democratic Party machine could not muster a convincing campaign.
Keep poking around aimlessly and the midterm will be a Democratic Party disaster.
10
Ted Cruz! There's a staunch ally. The gutsy bro who licked the boots of the man who mocked his wife's face and called his dad an accomplice to the JFK assasination. No wonder the democratic lost. When you have Ted in your corner, you got the best lap dog insults can buy!
6
Wishful thinking. The only play the Dems have is one they currently employ -- sabotage of the correction of the Obama Bush Clinton Bush seige of zero years progress. It is only the press that currently holds them in life support. The American populace will gradually tire of Dem voodoo tactic. To the folks who brought you FDR Truman. Kennedy Carter Clinton Obama we should all in concert bid. Adios
2
"A Republican Wins in Kansas. It’s Still a Loss for the G.O.P."
It certainly is a loss for the G.O.P. And the same thing is about to happen in Georgia's 6th District in next Tuesday's election where the Democrat is looking to win the republican house seat formerly help by Tom Price who went to D.C. as Sec. of HHS.
The tide is turning against the republicans and in favor of the American people. Next year the 2018 elections should be a major loss for the republicans who have shown with their total disdain for the average American with their version of a health care plan that would have taken health care away for millions of Americans. The same is true for the proposals for the Trump - Ryan tax cut plan that would cut millions of dollars for the wealthy and raise taxes on the poor and middle class.
It certainly is a loss for the G.O.P. And the same thing is about to happen in Georgia's 6th District in next Tuesday's election where the Democrat is looking to win the republican house seat formerly help by Tom Price who went to D.C. as Sec. of HHS.
The tide is turning against the republicans and in favor of the American people. Next year the 2018 elections should be a major loss for the republicans who have shown with their total disdain for the average American with their version of a health care plan that would have taken health care away for millions of Americans. The same is true for the proposals for the Trump - Ryan tax cut plan that would cut millions of dollars for the wealthy and raise taxes on the poor and middle class.
7
We can and will give Republicans a literal run for their money if we put forth good ideas and good candidates. The buyers remorse that is being felt after the last election needs to be harnessed and exploited. What some people misconstrued as the Left's pandering, is in fact, attempts to right long standing wrongs and even the playing field. After all, most of us do not have a father that gives us a couple of million dollars to get started or bails us out when we really mess up.
4
Democrats better work harder. It was close but close is not enough.
8
You assume that we will have a free and fair election? With this crowd in power in the states?
Quick addition to my earlier comment. It's the INDIVIDUAL candidate and the issues. Thompson, as a vet, who came from a poor background, joined the military, became a member of the Honor Guard, went to college and got a law degree, and owns a gun, while also being a liberal who believes in legalizing marijuana, Planned Parenthood, and many other issues dear to Democrats, covered enough ground to be acceptable and believable to both sides. He is a progressive Berniecrat, but has enough chops to be acceptable to gun owners.
He is an excellent campaigner, and a true unifier. People will cross party lines when they have someone authentic to vote for. To look at this as merely about Dems vs. Republicans is far too simplistic.
He is an excellent campaigner, and a true unifier. People will cross party lines when they have someone authentic to vote for. To look at this as merely about Dems vs. Republicans is far too simplistic.
Still a win.
7
Kansas voters you missed an opportunity to save America and yourselves. I guess there really was a reason Dorothy left for OZ.
7
It wasn't the tornadoes?
2
Just wrote my first check for $1k to Warren. Literally cannot wait to start writing more once candidates come out of the primary.
Koch bros are not the only ones who can play this game......
Koch bros are not the only ones who can play this game......
6
Trump played above the game.
"Your money is no good here" can cut either way.
"Your money is no good here" can cut either way.
1
Jon -
On the one hand, I appreciate your dedication. And I'm a big Elizabeth fan too.
But the reality is that money no longer is determinative in elections. Money didn't elect Hillary (she spent a lot more than Trump). Money won't get Ossoff elected in GA - if he gets elected its because of the strength of anti-Trump sentiment. And Elizabeth already has a huge pile of $ - over 9 million. She will get re-elected easily because Massachusetts voters love her and because the MA GOP and their potential nominees are quite pathetic.
On the one hand, I appreciate your dedication. And I'm a big Elizabeth fan too.
But the reality is that money no longer is determinative in elections. Money didn't elect Hillary (she spent a lot more than Trump). Money won't get Ossoff elected in GA - if he gets elected its because of the strength of anti-Trump sentiment. And Elizabeth already has a huge pile of $ - over 9 million. She will get re-elected easily because Massachusetts voters love her and because the MA GOP and their potential nominees are quite pathetic.
1
I lived in this district years ago. Back then the representative was Dan Glickman, a Jewish middle-of-the-road Democrat who lost his seat in the House banking scandal, became Clinton's secretary of agriculture, and retired as the head of the Motion Picture Association of America.
It's a mixed area: home of Kansas' largest city, Koch Industries and many union members who work in the aircraft industry. It was also the site of the biggest anti-abortion protest in history. It leans right but has a leftist streak that hearkens back to Kansas' history as a populist, socialist, Nonpartisan League hotbed.
All politics is local, and it is unpredictable in the Kansas Fourth District. Estes may have won, but it's a warning to his party.
It's a mixed area: home of Kansas' largest city, Koch Industries and many union members who work in the aircraft industry. It was also the site of the biggest anti-abortion protest in history. It leans right but has a leftist streak that hearkens back to Kansas' history as a populist, socialist, Nonpartisan League hotbed.
All politics is local, and it is unpredictable in the Kansas Fourth District. Estes may have won, but it's a warning to his party.
3
But Kansas Republicans are blissful about the other news of the day:
Gov Brownback has moved up to the second least popular governor in the country. Gov Christie beat him out for the honor that long had been Brownback's high water mark.
Gov Brownback has moved up to the second least popular governor in the country. Gov Christie beat him out for the honor that long had been Brownback's high water mark.
Did you donate directly to his campaign? I sure did. All of these candidates can use all the support they get. A seven point difference in a deep red state is huge. Normally, the D would have lost by more than 20 points. It's a sign of progress. The fight has only just begun.
In spite of the pollsters' fancy sampling and big data analytics, the election went where nature found the path of least resistance in a deep red state - another white good ol' boy who they obviously trust will hear them. It may take another generation for Democrats to win back the trust of Americans who live outside of urban hubs.
It must be awful these days to be a professional political pollster. I mean, people must groan when they hear what you do for a living.
It must be awful these days to be a professional political pollster. I mean, people must groan when they hear what you do for a living.
4
This is why Democrats lose.
They wasted a tremendous opportunity in Kansas. Gov Dean's 50 state strategy is the only way to go. Additionally, the democratic party doesn't have a message outside of "trump bad". They need to craft a cohesive message that delivers the disaffected trump voters back to the polls in the next election.
They wasted a tremendous opportunity in Kansas. Gov Dean's 50 state strategy is the only way to go. Additionally, the democratic party doesn't have a message outside of "trump bad". They need to craft a cohesive message that delivers the disaffected trump voters back to the polls in the next election.
Trump is a family business manager, not a public sector manager.
2
You are right. Let me help with the message. "George W. Bush was the worst President this country ever had. We wasted 4,000 American lives in Iraq, he lost the Afghan War, wasted $3.0 trillion dollars on those Middle East wars and crashed the economy." Isn´t that a good place to begin?
As a person born and raised in a small town in Kansas, I still have numerous friends and family back home and when I ask who voted for Brownback, everyone states that they did not, and they have no idea how he was elected for a second term. I hear there have been numerous attempts to force the release of election results, but Brownback refuses to give access to this information, leading many Kansans to wonder if the election was rigged.
Now a member of Brownback's administration, who was doing poorly against a Democrat, suddenly pulls off a victory with a seven point lead. Makes one wonder if a Brownback "victory" was stage-managed for Mr. Estes.
Now a member of Brownback's administration, who was doing poorly against a Democrat, suddenly pulls off a victory with a seven point lead. Makes one wonder if a Brownback "victory" was stage-managed for Mr. Estes.
2
I'm still looking for McGovern voter. There don't seem to be any !!
Oh darn, when would Kansas wake up ?
3
You say - correctly - that's "it's a mistake to read too much into a single special election," then you do precisely that. You may be right about what this means for the Republicans nationally a year and a half from now, and indeed I hope you are. But this is not evidence-based journalism; it's just spin.
4
You can't fool all the people all the time.
3
When I got up this morning and read the result of the Kansas election in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution I was very disappointed. I immediately emailed a friend here in Atlanta and expressed my feelings about this disappointment, saying that the women's march in January and the town hall meetings across the country have been some the few highlights I've had since November. Now, I am really hoping that Georgia 6th congressional district (Tom Price's seat)can pull off an upset with Ossloff. This is not my district, but I'm doing what I can, including talking to 19 year-olds who can vote in this election. My sister, a republican who DOES live in the 6th, informed me yesterday that she is postponing a trip so she can vote in next week's election. The competition is fierce. It would be a fine and fitting thing if Tom Price's seat goes to a Democrat.
2
I guess the electorate in Kansas doesn't want healthcare to be affordable and accessible, and likes a serial liar as their leader. But then Kansas has a long and sordid history in in our great nation. The Kansas Nebraska Act would have been fitting under Trump. Border Ruffians eventually did lose. This group will as well.
3
First of all, it's not "still a loss" for the GOP. It's a possible warning light, canary in the coal mine, cautionary event, but it's not "a loss."
Second, with what we know about Kansas's suspect voting history in the past decade and the relentless attempts to stifle any investigation into data irregularities, it's quite possible this could have been a REAL loss and we'll never know.
Would love to see the NYTimes dig more into potential corruption of the voting system in Kansas. That's the big concern.
Second, with what we know about Kansas's suspect voting history in the past decade and the relentless attempts to stifle any investigation into data irregularities, it's quite possible this could have been a REAL loss and we'll never know.
Would love to see the NYTimes dig more into potential corruption of the voting system in Kansas. That's the big concern.
3
Everything is bad news for Republicans, right? A little more bad news and the GOP will control 80 Senate seats.
7
Comparing these results to this district's previous election results is stunning. Republicans typically win by 25-30 pts. Can you say YIKES if you're a Republican? There's a blue tidal wave coming. Georgia should be very interesting next week.
2
Actually it is not a loss for Republicans, just another loss for the radical democrats. I would never align myself with a party that would include a wacko like Maxine Waters (or sHrillary) as one of their members. And that is the sentiment of most Americans.
5
People who make everything personal make really lousy public policy.
3
But you prefer Alex Jones?
6
The New York Times has no credibility predicting elections given how wrong they were about the last Presidential election. This is not political analysis, this is just wishful thinking. The fact that the margins were closer in this election has more to do with the nature of voter participation in off elections than anything else. In fact given the money that Democrats, mostly fringe liberal groups, spent on this election, this does not bode well for Democratic in the mid-term elections. What Democrats fail to understand is that jobs and the economy "Trump" social issues. People are less concerned about gender identity when they are unemployed or underemployed.
5
I hate to be the one to break it to you, but the GOP will be perfectly fine.
You have to remember: republican voters are notoriously amnesia-prone to the point of being complete hypocrites, entirely abandoning their convenient high-and-mighty morally superior stances, and allowing their elected officials to do and say whatever, so long as they have that little R after their name.
Add to this the fact that democratic voters can't be bothered to vote in midterm elections, and you have a recipe for continued GOP success at winning elections and persistent failure at running local, state, and federal governments and agencies.
The real loss here is for anyone and everyone who has to live where republicans are the voting majority.
But who in their right mind would want to live in Kansas anyways?
You have to remember: republican voters are notoriously amnesia-prone to the point of being complete hypocrites, entirely abandoning their convenient high-and-mighty morally superior stances, and allowing their elected officials to do and say whatever, so long as they have that little R after their name.
Add to this the fact that democratic voters can't be bothered to vote in midterm elections, and you have a recipe for continued GOP success at winning elections and persistent failure at running local, state, and federal governments and agencies.
The real loss here is for anyone and everyone who has to live where republicans are the voting majority.
But who in their right mind would want to live in Kansas anyways?
3
Keep deluding yourself...you are showing the same quality thinking that let you forecast the 2016 election so effectively, Nate. Maybe, as a special election, people did not stream to the polls? Maybe the Democrats were highly motivated to vie against a Republican?
2
What this still shows is the stupidity of Democrats. This was a winnable race yet Democrats sat on their hands and did nothing to help their candidate because they assumed, wrongly as it turned out, that this contest could not be competitive. Until Democrats fight for every seat in every state, they will be the "also ran" party. This is truly beyond a money issue. Sanders should have taught the Democrats that real money can be raised by real people, one dollar or five dollars at a time. This is also a more effective strategy since it also gets your message out to potential voters. I had hoped that with new party leadership, things would change but apparently, they have not. Howard Dean was the best leadership the Democrats ever had and they should have fought tooth and nail to entice him to return to his old post. Why this didn't happen is beyond me.
2
Nate,
The republicans kept the seat, all that is needed is one vote, the Republican won by several.I do not get comfort from this result. It shows just how deeply intrenched the Republicans are in many parts of our Nation. As a matter of fact, I was starting to feel a degree of hope that the MidTerm election might give us back the Congress & Senate, this result dashed that hope.
The republicans kept the seat, all that is needed is one vote, the Republican won by several.I do not get comfort from this result. It shows just how deeply intrenched the Republicans are in many parts of our Nation. As a matter of fact, I was starting to feel a degree of hope that the MidTerm election might give us back the Congress & Senate, this result dashed that hope.
3
Keep thinking that way Nate, Confusion, willful ignorance and wishfull thinking in the opposition almost always leads to victory at the polls. See ya in 2018!
1
Much ado about nothing.
Pompeo won his first election which was an open seat with 59 per cent of the vote. So this victory, also an open seat, is 53 percent. Much of the change can be attributed to unpopularity of Governor Brownbeck. And the Democrats dumped a ton of money into this election.
Like I said, much ado about nothing.
Pompeo won his first election which was an open seat with 59 per cent of the vote. So this victory, also an open seat, is 53 percent. Much of the change can be attributed to unpopularity of Governor Brownbeck. And the Democrats dumped a ton of money into this election.
Like I said, much ado about nothing.
2
In other words, the good people of Kansas once again elected a member of the political party that has putting the screws to them 24/7. For decades.
Incredible.
Incredible.
3
Notice how sane-looking Ted Cruz now looks in that picture? Compared to Trump anything can look good.
Watch Georgia on filling Tom Price's seat. Maybe they'll realize what a phony Price turned out to be, man of medicine.....for the rich.
Go Georgia, give us a Dem, someone with a heart, who might really care about the hearts and lives of others.
Go Georgia, give us a Dem, someone with a heart, who might really care about the hearts and lives of others.
3
Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of guys....
What does it say about the condition of the Democratic Party when their candidate in a special congressional election loses to a Republican state treasurer serving under a demonized, hated Republican governor and a perceived buffoon of a president who's polling at record lows? It says they're in trouble. A better scenario couldn't have been scripted for a Dem victory than the congressional race in Kansas. While The Reps win wasn't a landslide it was by a comfortable margin, pointing out not so much the strength of the right but the utter weakness of the left. The similar race in Georgia later this month has the Dem - with 90% of monetary contributions coming from out of state - leading in the polls over five or six Reps. A loss in Georgia could signal the end of the Democratic Party as a major player.
3
If the Republicans have an embarrassing win of a Senate supermajority in 2018, they will have to learn to live with it.
1
The GOP have gerrymandered districts so thoroughly, that despite an unpopular governor and outrageous policy failures, these people still elected another Republican.
3
Or does it show us how the gerrymandering the Republicans have done over the last few decades make it hard for the public to get valid representation?
3
It was a win and a win is a win is a win.
3
Let's hope the NYT analysis is correct, but I suspect the narrow win had much more to do with the unpopularity of the Kansas governor. Looking for signs of disenchantment with Trump is understandable but analysts' time would be better spent examining the true nature and needs of the people in the heartland.
1
You meant to say there were no candidates for the democrats to vote their "conscience".... because it worked so well last November.
2
Democrats (and their enablers in the press) seem to be irreparably clueless. They always think the Republicans are "in trouble" and are always wrong. Democrats live in their own echo chamber of denial, which is why they are constantly - and relentlessly - losing electoral offices to Republican candidates. When will Democrats stop seeking false comfort and face the truth?
2
Democrats relentlessly lose in many of those states solely because of contorted districts due to gerrymandering.
3
The republicans will continue to win. There is no leadership on the democratic side. The democrats are expert at reacting, not leading. Both parties live and rule like royalty. If the majority of the public ever figures this out...
3
Losing by less is better than losing by more, but concluding that there is more support for Dems is a long way from having enough support to unseat the Ryan-McConnell corporate machine. The bottom line is the Dems aren't getting through to enough voters. Time to ask why is running out.
1
If Kansas likes poor leadership they should continue to enjoy that...
2
A 20% swing for 2018 elections would be a huge wave. Even a 10% swing will secure democratic House.
1
A close loss is not a win for the Democrats. Until we see some wins, nothing has changed.
5
Voter suppression laws, and Koch brothers' dollars at work.
C'mom Democratic Party. let's flood these upcoming elections with dollars, phone calls, and rides to the polls There's too much at stake.
C'mom Democratic Party. let's flood these upcoming elections with dollars, phone calls, and rides to the polls There's too much at stake.
Another bold prediction from the people who got the last election completely wrong. And it's a year and a half away.
3
Starting in 2010 with the help of massive amounts of dark money, Karl Rove designed and implemented the REDMAP gerrymandering program. REDMAP's effect on the 2012 election is plain," reads a post-election Republican State Leadership Committee report. "Pennsylvanians cast 83,000 more votes for Democratic U.S. House candidates . . . but elected a 13-5 Republican majority to represent them in Washington; Michiganders cast over 240,000 more votes for Democratic congressional candidates than Republicans, but still elected a 9-5 Republican delegation to Congress.” Also keep in mind that Trump lost the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes.
Enough people may still care about the reputation of our country that is being soiled beyond belief by Trump and overturn the systematic suppression of democracy. Protest and vote No on Trump and his billionaire buddies!
Enough people may still care about the reputation of our country that is being soiled beyond belief by Trump and overturn the systematic suppression of democracy. Protest and vote No on Trump and his billionaire buddies!
3
Oh for Pete's sake - a win is a win is a win.
3
Democrats don't need to be "competitive". They need to win. Otherwise the country continues its painful swirl down the drain to GOP destructive rule.
3
2018 will be a year of reckoning.
I wouldn't want to be a Republican running then.
It will be brutal.
And,frankly, it couldn't happen to better people.
I wouldn't want to be a Republican running then.
It will be brutal.
And,frankly, it couldn't happen to better people.
2
What surprises me is how little the National Democrats did to try to help in this election. While Ted Cruz live and recorded Pence and Trump helped Mr. Estes, the Democrats didn't ask Bernie Sanders or Senate Democrats to help out. There seems to be a leadership void there.
3
I'm sure the national party would say that the seat was a losing cause and not worth the money. They are focusing instead on the Georgia Sixth. Still the Kansas margin was small enough, about 8,000 votes, that a few thousand dollars on phone calling and canvassing might have made a difference. About 119,000 people voted in this special election; back in November nearly 270,000 votes were cast. Mike Pompeo alone received over 40,000 more votes than the total cast yesterday.
http://www.sos.ks.gov/ent/kssos_ent.html
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/house/kansas/
http://www.sos.ks.gov/ent/kssos_ent.html
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/house/kansas/
1
The DNC did the same thing during the recall election of Scott Walker of Wisconsin. They were barely involved and gave the democratic candidate running against Walker a pittance compared to the wad of dough the Koch brothers and others gave Walker.
2
"@TheDemocrats fight in Kansas is just the start of what we'll bring to campaigns across the county in 2, 4, 6 yrs & beyond" says Chuck Schumer.
DNC was indifferent to this election and now all of a sudden Dems find hope!
Remember Schumer also had this winning strategy for Hillary: "Forget Dems, appeal to Repub voters who will take Hillary to the WH"
DNC was indifferent to this election and now all of a sudden Dems find hope!
Remember Schumer also had this winning strategy for Hillary: "Forget Dems, appeal to Repub voters who will take Hillary to the WH"
True, it is one race. But in a state that can re-elect Brownback (the male Kelllyanne Conway) this does seem like a big deal.
1
Democrats lose election; declare victory.
Seems to be a recurring theme.
Seems to be a recurring theme.
5
Over the course of six decades on this earth, I have concluded that a majority of the American people have a very short attention span, and even a shorter memory. That's not because we're on the road to Alzheimers, it's because so many are apathetic. Athenians are rolling over in the graves; granted the Athenian Republic failed primarily for the same reasons that many think the USA is on its way out.
I do think that those who voted for Trump haven't been given anything for the past two months, and that is long enough in their minds to ditch the guy. The Democrats have to earnestly appeal to those folks. They need to address the most important question in a voter's mind: what about me?
I do think that those who voted for Trump haven't been given anything for the past two months, and that is long enough in their minds to ditch the guy. The Democrats have to earnestly appeal to those folks. They need to address the most important question in a voter's mind: what about me?
1
Democrats have got to stop assuming a district is going to vote one way or the other. This is one of the reasons they lost bigly in 2016. The DNC must start acting early in the race and not simply reacting in the final moments when they suddenly wake up and realize a victory might be had. It makes no difference how close the votes were when the race is lost.
2
It's still a long way to the 2018 elections.
I am not so sure that comparing a congressional election to the presidential one is valid or meaningful.
No matter what anyone says, a loss is still a loss. How does the saying go "close is only valid in football and hand grenades".
I am not so sure that comparing a congressional election to the presidential one is valid or meaningful.
No matter what anyone says, a loss is still a loss. How does the saying go "close is only valid in football and hand grenades".
5
What this article and other coverage about this Kansas election tends to be missing is that Pompeo won his re-election bid by 31 points in November. Granted, Pompeo was the incumbent and he is very well-respected. Yet, it's hard not to make at least something of a 24-point swing in favor of the Democrat. If Trump and GOP Congress can't pass new healthcare law, tax reform, and/or new immigration policy by December they are in for a world of hurt. One-off bombing raids against Syria, gutting the EPA, meaningless NAFTA changes, and cutting red-state job training programs won't make for convincing campaign ads in 2018.
2
Disingenuous to believe a special election is a prelude of things to come. 80,000 people voted in Sedgwick County - about 15% of the total population (25% of registered). His opponent was a prominent civil rights lawyer who drew well in urban Wichita.
Outside of Sedgwick County, the republican Estes won in a landslide similar to Trump - a 63-36 margin.
Outside of Sedgwick County, the republican Estes won in a landslide similar to Trump - a 63-36 margin.
10
What is wrong with Kansas? Weeks ago the Governor vetoed a bill which would have expanded Medicaid in Kansas. The legislature failed to override the veto. As a result many hospitals in Kansas will have to close. I think that such action on the part of Republicans would turn many Kansans into Democrats. That this Republican won the vacant seat is an indication that Kansans at least are not about to change. They simply don't care that many poorer and rural Kansans will die needlessly. I fear the same can be said of Republicans on the national level.
23
Is it?
Considering how Kansas is a textbook example of failure of GOP ;policy; the GOP still can win elections. This with a state that the budget deficit is growing by leaps and bounds, and its education system is failing. What they are doing in Kansas, is what they are doing in Colorado Springs, but at a much larger scale. And, the so called Freedom Caucus, aka Tea party, have similar plans at the federal level. Cut taxes, cut services, and watch teh deficits grow, while all public services fail one by one.
The Democrats should heed that they need much more of a vision to try to regain footing at the local, state and federal level; outside of urban areas. Else, GO fiscal carnage will slowly ruin this country.
Considering how Kansas is a textbook example of failure of GOP ;policy; the GOP still can win elections. This with a state that the budget deficit is growing by leaps and bounds, and its education system is failing. What they are doing in Kansas, is what they are doing in Colorado Springs, but at a much larger scale. And, the so called Freedom Caucus, aka Tea party, have similar plans at the federal level. Cut taxes, cut services, and watch teh deficits grow, while all public services fail one by one.
The Democrats should heed that they need much more of a vision to try to regain footing at the local, state and federal level; outside of urban areas. Else, GO fiscal carnage will slowly ruin this country.
15
State budget deficit - check
education system falling apart - check
States run by democrats and states run by republicans have the same problems!
Seems democrats and republicans have more in common than you thought!
education system falling apart - check
States run by democrats and states run by republicans have the same problems!
Seems democrats and republicans have more in common than you thought!
Until Democrats offer the American people more than words and empty promises, they will continue to lose on the state and national levels. All the Democrats ever do is attempt to buy votes by pandering to fringe political and special interest groups like Black Lives Matter, Planned Parenthood, and Occupy Wall Street. They have no concrete ideas for serving the middle class and middle America voters who were responsible for electing Trump. Pandering to the far left liberal voters on the east and west coasts will simply result in more losses for Democrats who are incapable of understanding the flyover country they always show so much disdain for.
10
The only party even to attempt to provide solutions for the inaccessibility of health care--and refused even an ounce of assistance by the republicans, over the tantrums and threats of republicans--the party that brought us back from the free-fall in the economy when GW Bush scampered off in disgrace--this and so much more--and characteristically false and ungracious, we here that democrats have failed to help? No. They've done their best despite the continuing obstruction and meanness of the republican party. That's the non-fake truth of it.
38
Key word is attempt. The democrats give lots of lip service to ideas - but they fail to show any improvement. We have had Obamacare for 6 years and there is no statistical improvement to the health of Americans over those 6 years. People received healthcare prior to ACA/Obamacare and people receive healthcare through ACA/Obamacare - but it isn't better healthcare. Yes the democrats attempted - but people expect results with data! (yes ACA/Obamacare provided more insurance cards to Americans -but the proper metric is health of Americans not paper cards). Americans want to see results not just "attempts."
For 3 or 4 decades that democrats got away with spending money they didn't have - promising people more than they could pay for. Now that state and local pension costs are out of hand - and budgets are tight - the democrats can not longer continue to promise new programs to win votes. It will be tough for them.
Win or lose the Democrats are competitive. I have to laugh as that is like the coach that just lost for the 100th time in a row telling his team, "But boys, we were competitive, lets stay positive and better luck next time." As a kid growing up in Kansas in the late 1940's and 1950's (I don't live there any longer) my Granddad use to say about elections, "Those dang voters would vote for a dead Elephant before they would vote for a Democrat." Looks like not much as changed.
25
I agree totally. I grew up in KS in the late 40s & 50s and still can't believe how the residents vote against their own economic interest. One of my close friends still lives there and his comment about the presidential election was he would rather vote for a crooked businessman than Hillary.
6
A possible better indicator as to the Democrats taking the House in 2018 is Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District with Jon Ossoff, Democrat mentioned in the article. He is running for the vacant seat formerly held by the infamous Tom Price, the current Republican Secretary of Health and Humans Services (aka Mr. Repeal AKA). The district lies in a county that voted for Marco Rubio in the primaries and Hillary Clinton in the national election. These are moderate Republicans but have always voted that way. Ossoff is getting good financial support from the Democrats and a lot of young progressives with a get out the vote approach. Ads running on TV etc.
We’ll find out next Tuesday.
We’ll find out next Tuesday.
6
If you actually believe the democrats will retake the house in 2018, you are highly delirious. BTW, the democrats will lose several seats in the senate.
bob,
I did not say the Democrats will retake the house. The point I tried to make is, the counties (3) bordering Atlanta are typically Republican and voted for Marco Rubio in the primaries and Hillary Clinton in the national. I would guess there are millions of moderate Republicans that are unhappy with Trump and anything can happen between now and the 2018 mid-terms.
I did not say the Democrats will retake the house. The point I tried to make is, the counties (3) bordering Atlanta are typically Republican and voted for Marco Rubio in the primaries and Hillary Clinton in the national. I would guess there are millions of moderate Republicans that are unhappy with Trump and anything can happen between now and the 2018 mid-terms.
1
Bad will go to worse for Republicans.
The Russiagate story is just warming up and woe to their party when it hits full force. These things brew over time.
It was 26 months from Watergate break-in to Nixon's resignation.
It's all yet to come.
Add to that the never ending stories we'll be hearing about corruption and conflict of interest regarding Trump family finances and other administration scandals. Never ending till the public chokes.
Throw in stories to come of incompetence in every government department run by his know-nothing cabinet (Ben Carson, Betsy DeVos, Rick Perry). More outrage.
And, of course, the ring master of the freak show himself.
Donald J. Trump.
Gaff a minute, lying, tongue-tripping, self-agrandizing, self-contradicting, prone to insult, obviously cunning and conning, way over his head and just all around bizarre human being…Donald J. Trump.
Oh, and throw in a close call or two on getting us into an unnecessary shooting war because of stupidity and miscalculation. Amature hour meets bloodletting.
By 2018, the stench will be unbearable.
And voting against Republicans will be like finally opening a window and turning the fan on high.
An historic mistake we will all gleefully correct at the polls.
The Russiagate story is just warming up and woe to their party when it hits full force. These things brew over time.
It was 26 months from Watergate break-in to Nixon's resignation.
It's all yet to come.
Add to that the never ending stories we'll be hearing about corruption and conflict of interest regarding Trump family finances and other administration scandals. Never ending till the public chokes.
Throw in stories to come of incompetence in every government department run by his know-nothing cabinet (Ben Carson, Betsy DeVos, Rick Perry). More outrage.
And, of course, the ring master of the freak show himself.
Donald J. Trump.
Gaff a minute, lying, tongue-tripping, self-agrandizing, self-contradicting, prone to insult, obviously cunning and conning, way over his head and just all around bizarre human being…Donald J. Trump.
Oh, and throw in a close call or two on getting us into an unnecessary shooting war because of stupidity and miscalculation. Amature hour meets bloodletting.
By 2018, the stench will be unbearable.
And voting against Republicans will be like finally opening a window and turning the fan on high.
An historic mistake we will all gleefully correct at the polls.
41
I agree, Paul. Ironically and delightfully, Trump will actually succeed in "draining the swamp" in a Republican Party nightmare. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of folks.
If Trump hasn't goaded North Korea into starting a nuclear war by then!
1
Kansas is the canary in the coal mine (pun intended).
You have a super-right-wing nutty governor who has punished the population by reducing basic government services -- all in line with republican orthodoxy. He's about two years ahead of the country in terms of seeing the outcome of republican thinking: a sinking economy and a state that can't provide basic services including education, roads, safety and infrastructure.
You have a super-right-wing nutty governor who has punished the population by reducing basic government services -- all in line with republican orthodoxy. He's about two years ahead of the country in terms of seeing the outcome of republican thinking: a sinking economy and a state that can't provide basic services including education, roads, safety and infrastructure.
76
Yes indeed we do. I am a reluctant Kansan that is a Yellow dog democrat. I live in the only county almost in the state that trends liberal. We are out here, we are working, but it's a hard road. Brownback has done more to damage the state than anybody, the one reason people move across the state line from Missouri used to be our stellar schools. He has tanked those as well. His major accomplishment is showing that the old republican tropes of lower taxes for the rich to increase jobs is garbage. It was always a failed policy, it's failed every time it's been tried and yet they keep trying it because they want to be in enriched at the expense of the rest of us. It's hard not to get completely discouraged in this red state, but we are not giving up! We all have to keep working, we almost turned a red stained seat into a blue one!!
3
My take on all this:
James Thompson was and is an excellent candidate. He is declaring for 2018. The media, as usual, did not cover him and his issues, so much as engage in the usual lazy reporting about Estes and the fact that this might be a race at all. Most reports would drift off quickly into a conversation about the Ossoff campaign, thereby giving Thompson very little actual air time or exposure and not showing what a good candidate he was.
It was almost a duplicate of the "horse race vs. issues" coverage of the presidential campaign. Meanwhile, the DNCC and the local state party gave him practically no money or support. At the same time, Thompson pulled off an amazing showing. So, why are we covering the stats and the pundits, instead of looking at this particular candidate and what made him engaging?
This is another example of lazyish reporting. And a blown possible victory by the geniuses at the DNC. This might well have been a win. BTW, I am from NY and CT, and just heard about him through Daily Kos, contributed, and then followed with great interest. The media has got to start covering the issues and the candidates.
James Thompson was and is an excellent candidate. He is declaring for 2018. The media, as usual, did not cover him and his issues, so much as engage in the usual lazy reporting about Estes and the fact that this might be a race at all. Most reports would drift off quickly into a conversation about the Ossoff campaign, thereby giving Thompson very little actual air time or exposure and not showing what a good candidate he was.
It was almost a duplicate of the "horse race vs. issues" coverage of the presidential campaign. Meanwhile, the DNCC and the local state party gave him practically no money or support. At the same time, Thompson pulled off an amazing showing. So, why are we covering the stats and the pundits, instead of looking at this particular candidate and what made him engaging?
This is another example of lazyish reporting. And a blown possible victory by the geniuses at the DNC. This might well have been a win. BTW, I am from NY and CT, and just heard about him through Daily Kos, contributed, and then followed with great interest. The media has got to start covering the issues and the candidates.
139
The expectation that the media will "cover" candidates and policy is increasingly anachronistic in an age when the these very media rake in billions of dollars from paid political advertising. The US needs to get in line with other English-speaking democracies and limit these obscene levels of ad spending. If Trump's election showed us anything, it is how completely redundant TV advertising would be in an environment where the press felt compelled to cover a candidate.
"Mr. Estes’s seven-point victory is extremely poor for this district, whether under politically neutral circumstances or an environment deeply unfavorable to the president’s party." It sounds like the democrats are thinking that this republican administration is so unpopular that they will lose in future elections. This is exactly what they thought about the general election. They thought beating Trump would be a slam dunk and it turned out they couldn't have been more wrong. It wasn't a landslide but he won just the same. A seven point lead isn't HUGE, but it is a win just the same. Dems are going to have to rethink their strategy.
75
I think a lot of pundits and analysts are banking on the fact that many trump voters are experiencing a serious hangover and will self-correct in 2018, which I wouldn't bet on either without a serious and consistent message. Remember there are many trump fans who will still vote for him, even if it turns out he himself colluded with Russia, even if he clearly is exploiting his power for personal profit and even if he drags the US in to another Middle East war without a plan. I would not bet against those die hard fans to show up with their red hats at the polls screaming "4 more years!" and then running over to the soup kitchen with their kids...
2
Yes. They (pundits and mainstream democratic leadership) bet on the weaknesses of the other candidate which is not enough to make a sound prediction or create a winning strategy.
1
What's really bizarre is the fact that Sam Brownback can somehow continue to label Kansas's economic policies a smashing success and that Republicans there continue to believe it. Kansas Republicans are combining a strategy of minority voter suppression with a strategy of reality suppression. And it's working great.
141
Not encouraging at all.
The state under republican leadership is moving towards last in education, last in healthcare, last in environmental safety, and last in revenue/deficit ratio. And one of the pied pipers behind that abysmal performance still won.
The state under republican leadership is moving towards last in education, last in healthcare, last in environmental safety, and last in revenue/deficit ratio. And one of the pied pipers behind that abysmal performance still won.
102
According to US News and World Reports, Kansas has the 14th best education of the 50 states, Ballotpedia says they have less state dept per capita than all but 13 states, US News also ranks them 18th in healthcare quality, and the Supplemental Poverty Measure ranks KS the 11th best.
Perhaps you should try using facts in your decision making process in the future.
Perhaps you should try using facts in your decision making process in the future.
1
"So far, the Democrats are passing the test."
This race was a partial referendum on an unpopular governor. Yet the Republican candidate still won by a respectable margin.
This race was a partial referendum on an unpopular governor. Yet the Republican candidate still won by a respectable margin.
45
Yeah, just keep telling yourself that, 'Kay?
"It's still a loss" may be one way to look at things. I remain skeptical however. Many of the Bernie Sanders wing, whose belief is the old "we need for things to get so bad the people will have an uprising" may see this as a first step. But enough has not been written about how many in that wing not only were happy to give the election to Trump, but inspired a bunch of first time voters with their slogans and anti Hillary rhetoric to give all three branches of the government to the worst president in history. With no thought of how much damage to so many people and the country can be done in a very short time.
I fear that if a change does come, it will not be because a bunch of "idealistic, self righteous" voters in Wi, MI and PA withheld their Clinton votes. And it will come after I am too old to appreciate it. And we Democrats will continue to fight the "purists" to find some kind of majority until Bernie retires with his pension and healthcare that he received for years of doing nothing and never having a real job, and goes back to Vermont and replays his rallies with a couple of beers. And a realist on the Left rises to lead and understand compromise and capture the imagination of a majority of the country.
I fear that if a change does come, it will not be because a bunch of "idealistic, self righteous" voters in Wi, MI and PA withheld their Clinton votes. And it will come after I am too old to appreciate it. And we Democrats will continue to fight the "purists" to find some kind of majority until Bernie retires with his pension and healthcare that he received for years of doing nothing and never having a real job, and goes back to Vermont and replays his rallies with a couple of beers. And a realist on the Left rises to lead and understand compromise and capture the imagination of a majority of the country.
26
Still beating up on Sanders are you? Get over it.
The election was Clinton's to lose and with a little help from a tone deaf DNC and perhaps a few other players, that's just what she did.
The election was Clinton's to lose and with a little help from a tone deaf DNC and perhaps a few other players, that's just what she did.
3
The few other players being Sanders and Stein.
4
Right, Blame It On Bernie. Again.
I do believe there is hope though. Elizabeth Warren 2020.
I do believe there is hope though. Elizabeth Warren 2020.
To build support on opposing the Republicans only will not be effective.
The Democrats need to come up with alternative policies on 4 key issues,
Healthcare add value to Obama care by adding a public option using Medicare infrastructure, introduce legislation to reduce prescription drug prices to European level.
Propose a blue riband panel of true experts to come up with detailed reforms to
ensure overall Lower health care costs and greater efficiency.
Elected politicians do not have the expertise and put ideaology above real solutions.
Support an infrastructure program paid for by an increase in taxes , eg a border tax of say 3 or 4 percent which will be offset by an appreciation of the Dollar.Importers should pay for the infrastructure they benefit from.
Reform Corporate tax by reducing rate to 20 percent which is equal to the effective rate. Ensure it is revenue neutral by eliminating corporate welfare and all Companies must pay that rate on USA earnings
Reduce income inequality by having a minimum wage , reducing interest rates on College loans, reducing tax rates for the middle class and pay for it by reducing tax concessions for the rich , such as carried interest, deferred tax plans etc.
By clearly demonstrating that the Republicans are the party of greed for the few and Democrats truly support the people they can do exceedingly well in 2018
It is the economy stupid
The Democrats need to come up with alternative policies on 4 key issues,
Healthcare add value to Obama care by adding a public option using Medicare infrastructure, introduce legislation to reduce prescription drug prices to European level.
Propose a blue riband panel of true experts to come up with detailed reforms to
ensure overall Lower health care costs and greater efficiency.
Elected politicians do not have the expertise and put ideaology above real solutions.
Support an infrastructure program paid for by an increase in taxes , eg a border tax of say 3 or 4 percent which will be offset by an appreciation of the Dollar.Importers should pay for the infrastructure they benefit from.
Reform Corporate tax by reducing rate to 20 percent which is equal to the effective rate. Ensure it is revenue neutral by eliminating corporate welfare and all Companies must pay that rate on USA earnings
Reduce income inequality by having a minimum wage , reducing interest rates on College loans, reducing tax rates for the middle class and pay for it by reducing tax concessions for the rich , such as carried interest, deferred tax plans etc.
By clearly demonstrating that the Republicans are the party of greed for the few and Democrats truly support the people they can do exceedingly well in 2018
It is the economy stupid
20
It is indeed a bad sign for Republicans, but the Republican candidate here was state treasurer for incredibly unpopular governor Sam Brownback, who created a giant loophole in the state tax-code for limited partnerships that created a yawning budget gap. You can't extrapolate the full size of the swing here to the next midterm election.
9
I'm a Democrat and this seems to be a little wishful thinking. The guy is in Brownback's admin and this may have been a slap against him, not national politics. It's so early, I think trying to figure out what will happen in 18 months is a little like reading tea leaves.
61
In Washington state's 4th district Republican incumbent Dan Newhouse is running scared. Half of his constituents live in the Tri-Cities but he refuses to have a town hall here, preferring to hide out in the rural areas. At those he has resorted to limited seating, checking identification at the door, and banning signs. The list of restrictions imposed was a major portion of his announcement for an event in a rural area.
15
Encouraging for the resistance... but ONLY if people exercise their civic responsibility AND VOTE..
15
Yes, wow, what a loss! I mean, when is a loss ever a win? Only in a Pyrrhic victory which this was not. Whatever happened to "almost only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades?"
Mr. Estes will be voting in the House of Representatives, so no loss there.
His "almost lost" will be a rallying cry for the Republicans as well as the Democrats. The Republicans will study the somewhat discontent electorate and with or without Russian help will figure the buttons to push in the next contested districts... Let me know when the Koch Brothers leave the theater.
"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore." No Toto, it isn't. This is the Gerrymandered United States of America...
Mr. Estes will be voting in the House of Representatives, so no loss there.
His "almost lost" will be a rallying cry for the Republicans as well as the Democrats. The Republicans will study the somewhat discontent electorate and with or without Russian help will figure the buttons to push in the next contested districts... Let me know when the Koch Brothers leave the theater.
"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore." No Toto, it isn't. This is the Gerrymandered United States of America...
51
I wouldn't bet on anything right now. like I've said before- republicans are much more willing to vote against their self-interest and even for a broom with a wig on it- which is what we have in the WH right now.
I'm as liberal as they come but it's the democratic and progressive voters I don't trust- they are either fickle or holding out for the second coming of a messiah to show up to the ballot box.
we need to stop blaming trump voters- you can't fix stupid. we need to ask why we can't be as shrewd and cunning and organized as the other side.
I'm as liberal as they come but it's the democratic and progressive voters I don't trust- they are either fickle or holding out for the second coming of a messiah to show up to the ballot box.
we need to stop blaming trump voters- you can't fix stupid. we need to ask why we can't be as shrewd and cunning and organized as the other side.
85
Why do you presume to know what is in my best interest? The arrogance of the left on full display.
1
They were not stupid, they were desperate. Clinton was more of the same declining quality of life they have been living with since 1972. I don't blame them. That's not stupidity, and the more you say that the worse it gets.
1
I received numerous requests to contribute money, then requests for time to phone for the Dem in this Kansas contest. Sorry to say, I just didn't find the Dem label good enough to invest in any more. The days I jump to help a Dem candidate, just because he/she isn't a Republican, are long gone.
Yesterday, I read the Dem establishment didn't even get involved in this Kansas contest. Guess they weren't inspired either.
Very pessimistic, but I'm still holding out for non-establishment Dems. And I still hope Bernie stays INDEPENDENT of the Dems. He really is the only politician I still trust.
Yesterday, I read the Dem establishment didn't even get involved in this Kansas contest. Guess they weren't inspired either.
Very pessimistic, but I'm still holding out for non-establishment Dems. And I still hope Bernie stays INDEPENDENT of the Dems. He really is the only politician I still trust.
10
It is nice to trust Bernie, but my research has shown that based on his own website that in all his years in elected office his self proclaimed success is that he always wins his election by just a few votes. Other candidates brag about the legislation they have gotten passed into law. Bernie doesn't mention any at all. In all his years as an elected official, he has the thinnest resume I've ever seen. I've been voting since 1972 so that says a lot about Bernie.
18
yes, go ahead and hold out for the messiah, the rest of us can't afford the luxury.
I'm voting establishment democrat if for no other reason that to keep things from sliding off the cliff even further. just like if Hillary was president and came into the oval office to do some yoga and called it a day and went up to play with grandkids, I'd consider that a success compared to the nightmare we're living in now.
I'm voting establishment democrat if for no other reason that to keep things from sliding off the cliff even further. just like if Hillary was president and came into the oval office to do some yoga and called it a day and went up to play with grandkids, I'd consider that a success compared to the nightmare we're living in now.
8
Until you get the majority of the Democrats turning out for the off year elections, the Democrats will remain the underdog party in wide swaths of this country. Until you get a politically activated Democratic Party on the local level, committed to turning the local and state offices into Democrat seats, a repressive, consistently wrong GOP will control the government. As long as people subscribe to the propaganda from the far right, the GOP will continue its control.
18
Until the Democrats come on out to the wide open spaces of the Prairies
and leave their snobbery behind and just talk to us as normal people
they will have a hard row to hoe.
In their hearts most Americans want a decent America
where everyone has a fair chance to live the life they choose.
Democrates make that your simple campaign motto:
"An America for every American"
not just for Special Interest Groups or Minorities.
and leave their snobbery behind and just talk to us as normal people
they will have a hard row to hoe.
In their hearts most Americans want a decent America
where everyone has a fair chance to live the life they choose.
Democrates make that your simple campaign motto:
"An America for every American"
not just for Special Interest Groups or Minorities.
12
Don't buy the Republican con that Democrats are just for special interest groups and minorities.
Democrats have constructive proposals for everyone (yes, that includes minorities) but Republican money and a sport-contest press with little interest in substance is effective at distracting voters.
Here, read through this.
https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/
Democrats have constructive proposals for everyone (yes, that includes minorities) but Republican money and a sport-contest press with little interest in substance is effective at distracting voters.
Here, read through this.
https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/
2
Lynn,
The Democrats have to show that they do care about everyone
and that their policies will help everyone.
Trump is a Salesman - he will say whatever he needs to -
to close the deal.
How can the Democrats demonstrate and explain how they
really do want to help everyone...that is their task for 2018/2020.
The Democrats have to show that they do care about everyone
and that their policies will help everyone.
Trump is a Salesman - he will say whatever he needs to -
to close the deal.
How can the Democrats demonstrate and explain how they
really do want to help everyone...that is their task for 2018/2020.
1
what is wrong with the DNC that they did little to support this candidate?? The DNC should be working on testing messaging and strategies for 2018 and yet they sit on the sideline engaged in disorganization.
I will not give any more money to the DNC (and they keep asking since I've regularly given for years) until they start supporting candidates in these races and state races. What are they doing?? They seem utterly inept.
I will not give any more money to the DNC (and they keep asking since I've regularly given for years) until they start supporting candidates in these races and state races. What are they doing?? They seem utterly inept.
22
This is what passes for good news for the dems, who still have no electoral strategy or coherent ideology beyond being the anti-Trump.
21
The Con Don and his Top 1% Global Financial Elite Robber Baron/ Radical Religion Good Old Boys' Party/ Corporate Cabal have a well-oiled machine and they provide their blind followers with filled-out "sample" ballots, know their weak spot (in this case anti-abortion) and keep in constant contact to make sure they get to the polls to "vote". Pure manipulation.
Their blind followers are a shrinking minority in America but the Great Silent Majority must get out and vote. Many progressives, independents and democrats simply do not know who to vote for and WE must send them information to help them make the choice they really want - instead of letting them be swayed by Robber Baron LIES, LIES, LIES hate-anger-fear propaganda.
Washington State has a progressive voters guide, started by a University, and every state should develop one for democrat/independent/progressive voters. Information is power. Right now the money boys have it but WE have the votes. WE can WIN this fight, Good People of America, IF WE TAKE ACTION. NOW!
http://www.progressivevotersguide.com/
Their blind followers are a shrinking minority in America but the Great Silent Majority must get out and vote. Many progressives, independents and democrats simply do not know who to vote for and WE must send them information to help them make the choice they really want - instead of letting them be swayed by Robber Baron LIES, LIES, LIES hate-anger-fear propaganda.
Washington State has a progressive voters guide, started by a University, and every state should develop one for democrat/independent/progressive voters. Information is power. Right now the money boys have it but WE have the votes. WE can WIN this fight, Good People of America, IF WE TAKE ACTION. NOW!
http://www.progressivevotersguide.com/
8
Even if Thompson had managed to pull out a squeaker of a win, how long would he have held the seat? One term? The contours of the red states are pretty much set. In 1998 I lived in Mississippi when the Democrats did surprisingly well in the mid-terms (during the Clinton impeachment). My district unexpectedly elected a Democratic congressman. I think he was out after one or two terms. Unless a red-state district is centered on an urban or collegiate area, it's hard to turn it blue.
6
Ingrained stupidity is much harder to unseat than a Republican politician.
11
A Republican Wins in Kansas. It’s Still a Loss.
Sorry, no.
It's a GOP "loss" when the Democrats actually win back a seat.
All the GOP-controlled House seats will be in play in 20 months. That's when we will be able to tally wins and losses.
Sorry, no.
It's a GOP "loss" when the Democrats actually win back a seat.
All the GOP-controlled House seats will be in play in 20 months. That's when we will be able to tally wins and losses.
14
The GOP in trouble? Couldn't be happening to a more deserving group of bible thumping hypocrites
8
Its beginning to look a lot like Christmas...
1
It reflects nothing other than the fact that the GOP had a poor candidate.
3
Wow, another moral victory for Democrats. I am so tired of winning. Please, Ms. Pelosi, stop!
9
It will be very important for the Dems to watch carefully the gerrymandering and other attempts to block voters. There will be many attempts to enforce Trump's and thereby the Republicans' desire to create a firm dictatorship. Be aware.
4
Where was the DNC and the DCCC on this race? It could have been won if they were paying attention!!
4
Exactly! And it's why I continue not to give money to the DNC.
1
Talk about not learning from experience!
After its GOP governor bankrupts the state, Kansas elects ANOTHER Republican.
After its GOP governor bankrupts the state, Kansas elects ANOTHER Republican.
15
"It’s Still a Loss for the G.O.P."
No. It is not!!!
It is way too early for the Democrats to start patting themselves on the back.
This has been a season of unmitigated disasters and the Democratic party has not done a thing to improve their situation.
No. It is not!!!
It is way too early for the Democrats to start patting themselves on the back.
This has been a season of unmitigated disasters and the Democratic party has not done a thing to improve their situation.
5
Lots of things incorrect here. The biggest is that this somehow means bad things for the GOP. No. It was NOT Trump that led to this slim loss. It WAS Brownback. Unless Kansas is now in control of other states, Brownback is not an issue elsewhere. The Dem effectively tied him to Brownback, which is why the race was close. Trump wasn't an impact except maybe motivating the Dems more. But, even there, Brownback was the real motivator.
2
The author explicitly acknowledges this issue in the article.
This is still a win. Nothing has changed. We are doomed. I will not see the country swing back to normal in my life time. If it ever does. Fascism lives here in the U.S.
6
EJW,
Well stated. Democrats are still living in a fantasy world where they believe Republican voters will finally understand they're voting against their interests, and begin voting for Democrats. I'm in my seventh decade. I will not live to see the U.S. find its way out of fascism.
Well stated. Democrats are still living in a fantasy world where they believe Republican voters will finally understand they're voting against their interests, and begin voting for Democrats. I'm in my seventh decade. I will not live to see the U.S. find its way out of fascism.
2
And yet he still won.
I speak to you like an oracle from the prairie. All the voter mobilization in the world doesnt matter if there arent enough voters to mobilize.
Some of you are going to have to move here if you actually want to win.
End transmission.
I speak to you like an oracle from the prairie. All the voter mobilization in the world doesnt matter if there arent enough voters to mobilize.
Some of you are going to have to move here if you actually want to win.
End transmission.
9
Not at all a surprise even in this climate of utter incompetence at the highest levels, Kansans still chose a Repub in the special election! After all, this is the state that, despite serious complaints about where the state was heading at thate time and still, reelected Brownback as governor!
6
The Problem with Kansas, like so many red states, is that they think the Republican Party of 2017 is the same party that gave them Bob Dole. It's not. And those who vote for Republican representatives and senators today are voting against their own self interests and still don't realize it.
18
Nail meet head. As a Kansan, I am a acutely aware of, and frustrated by, the widespread phenomenon that many residents of rural red states don't have the slightest idea they are voting against their own best interests. It's maddening. These are the people who hated Obamacare but didn't want anyone to repeal the ACA because that's where they obtained their insurance coverage.
6
As long as democrats run around claiming they understand the best interest of the voters - better than the voters do - the democrats will lose. This type of snobbery and superiority complex is the biggest obstacles facing democratic party today. The message "we know your best interest better than you do" didn't work in 2016 and it will not work in 2018.
3
drm, I keep hearing people repeat your claim about why Democrats lose -- but I have never seen ONE IOTA of actual evidence that it is actually the reason for Democratic losses.
I've heard plenty of Republican snobs judging my lifestyle, beliefs and background as morally and culturally inferior to theirs. It isn't why I vote against them. I vote against them because 40 years of moving steadily rightward has failed to make our citizens more prosperous, healthy, educated, peaceful or optimistic. In fact, Republican policies have carried us steadily toward an oligarchy of the wealthiest, most ruthless tycoons and their heirs.
Voting based on cultural pique rather than actual policies is like voting for a mugger who says you're awesome just as you are, instead of a doctor who explains your problems and suggests solutions.
I've heard plenty of Republican snobs judging my lifestyle, beliefs and background as morally and culturally inferior to theirs. It isn't why I vote against them. I vote against them because 40 years of moving steadily rightward has failed to make our citizens more prosperous, healthy, educated, peaceful or optimistic. In fact, Republican policies have carried us steadily toward an oligarchy of the wealthiest, most ruthless tycoons and their heirs.
Voting based on cultural pique rather than actual policies is like voting for a mugger who says you're awesome just as you are, instead of a doctor who explains your problems and suggests solutions.
1
If the left can't win an election at this point, when President Trump is foundering, they will be destroyed when he gets traction. After thousands of Demcratic Party losses during the Obama regime, it looks like the trend will continue.
7
The look of smug arrogance of Mr. Estes in the photos is not backed up by his weak numbers. If, after all the cash and national firepower he was provided, this is the best he can do in a safely blood red district, the Republicans have to see this as a wake-up call at the very least.
1
Me, again. Even after the ongoing Brownback debacle, these folks will never admit they were wrong. Even with Trump. Know what most of them actually care about? Health care. This is, generally, a sparsely populated, rural, older state. The new college graduates leave, and rarely return. My husband, an Engineer, says that very few of his fellow engineers will stay here after a year or two, if they are not natives. Their wives threaten divorce. Seriously. I would estimate that 90 % of the population have NEVER lived elsewhere, except for military service. Rural hospitals are closing, monthly. This is all background.
The winning issue for the midterms, and beyond: MEDICARE for ALL -2020. PEROID. Keep it simple, keep it strong. Obviously, no Medicaid expansion here. Lack of services, lack of funding, lack of Hospitals and providers. Even the " less educated " are realizing what this really means, for THEIR family. This is THE winning issue, in Kansas.
The winning issue for the midterms, and beyond: MEDICARE for ALL -2020. PEROID. Keep it simple, keep it strong. Obviously, no Medicaid expansion here. Lack of services, lack of funding, lack of Hospitals and providers. Even the " less educated " are realizing what this really means, for THEIR family. This is THE winning issue, in Kansas.
72
but... they continue to vote repub - and expect that they will provide Healthcare ?
1
"Me, again."
Give us more, Phyllis!
Wives threatening divorce -- best laugh I've had in quite a while. (Even though, yeah, I know you're not joking.)
Give us more, Phyllis!
Wives threatening divorce -- best laugh I've had in quite a while. (Even though, yeah, I know you're not joking.)
That's so sad a Republican has trouble winning elections
2
Crime doesn't pay. People are waking up to the incompetence of Trump as President, and deeply skeptical of his isolating himself from serious, experienced personnel and increasing reliance on Eric, Ivanka, and Jared.
God help the United States
God help the United States
It's time for term limits. Congress needs a house cleaning.
Too many Senators and Congressmen return term after term. The result is gridlock. It has become a hostile environment. These men and women not only represent their constuients but also serve for the good of the country.
Too many Senators and Congressmen return term after term. The result is gridlock. It has become a hostile environment. These men and women not only represent their constuients but also serve for the good of the country.
1
Term limits are determined at the ballot box.
2
That the Dems cannot win every office while the Republican party is imploding under it's own contradictions is staggering. And the implosion started in 2015!
The old people that run the Democratic party better stop counting their hedge fund speaking fees and get off their butts and start coming up with a strategy that can carry outside of California, NY.
So far their only strategy is the characterization of Trump as Hannibal Lector - All Trump has to do is look semi-normal - and he wins. If by 2018 he doesn't collapse the economy or start a nuclear war, he would have proved the Dems wrong - then what are the Dems going to run on? Free Trade, bathroom laws and illegal immigration - because that is the Republican characterization that will fill the void.
The old people that run the Democratic party better stop counting their hedge fund speaking fees and get off their butts and start coming up with a strategy that can carry outside of California, NY.
So far their only strategy is the characterization of Trump as Hannibal Lector - All Trump has to do is look semi-normal - and he wins. If by 2018 he doesn't collapse the economy or start a nuclear war, he would have proved the Dems wrong - then what are the Dems going to run on? Free Trade, bathroom laws and illegal immigration - because that is the Republican characterization that will fill the void.
17
Coming from a rural county in north central Kansas, it is difficult to see how the Democratic Party will ever be able to compete in Kansas outside of the Kansas City , Topeka or Wichita areas. I made a decision in the fall of 2016 that I would never vote for another person with an "R" beside their name. (A party that would approve of a man like Trump deserves no support). As a result, and because the Democratic Party is so weak in this part of the state that they don't bother to field candidates for local offices, I was unable to cast a vote for nearly all of our local offices. I still remember the the vote tally in my township on November 8th- Trump 16, Clinton 6, Johnson 1. Until the Democratic Party rebuilds, we are in the wilderness in rural Kansas.
86
It is my understanding that the Dems picked up state legislature seats last Nov. Is that correct?
1
Yes, the state legislature picked up several democratic seats last November. In spite of that, our state senate and then our state house failed to override Brownback vetoes on Tax policy and then on Medicaid expansion. The elephant in the room for Kansas is the abortion issue. As long as Kansans perceive Democrats as in favor of abortion, Republicans will win. Every Republican running for office plays the abortion card. In 2004 my mother was in a nursing home. My brother brought her an absentee ballot. She asked, "Who should I vote for?" My brother and I both replied "John Kerry". My mother, a lifelong Democrat, replied "Democrats are always on the wrong side of abortion." I tell this story to relay my own opinion of "What's the matter with Kansas". The problem in Kansas is religious activism against a party that publicly approves of abortion. That sir, is my opinion. Until the Democrats change their platform, they will continue to lose. At least in Kansas.
4
Why not run for a local position yourself?
There are many local positions, like city council or school board, where you could make a big difference. It sounds like you were once a Republican and now have left the party. That story might resonate with people in your county.
There are many local positions, like city council or school board, where you could make a big difference. It sounds like you were once a Republican and now have left the party. That story might resonate with people in your county.
"The small and imperfect lesson of Tuesday’s special election in Kansas is that the Republicans might be in quite a bit of trouble."
No, they show that the Democrats might be in quite a bit of trouble. The DNC idiotically failed to support the Democratic candidate here, based on their perception that he had no change of winning. This kind of narrow thinking will keep Republicans safely in their seats for a long time.
The DNC should fight every race. More importantly, it should come out of its intellectual coma and start making energetic efforts to mobilize people to get involved in elections on the ground. There's a lot of pent up energy out there going to waste!
No, they show that the Democrats might be in quite a bit of trouble. The DNC idiotically failed to support the Democratic candidate here, based on their perception that he had no change of winning. This kind of narrow thinking will keep Republicans safely in their seats for a long time.
The DNC should fight every race. More importantly, it should come out of its intellectual coma and start making energetic efforts to mobilize people to get involved in elections on the ground. There's a lot of pent up energy out there going to waste!
400
Give them an unlimited budget, and I'm sure they would be happy to. They rely on contributions and have to draw up a strategy on how to use those dollars best without running out. They have to be prepared to compete in very expensive districts and media markets. Get all your friends to donate the max to the DCCC and the DSCC and then demand they compete in every single race with a lot of dollars.
2
I am not so sure about a small percentage Republican congressional seat win in red Kansas being a victory for Democrats. Losing is no way to win.
Given the Governor Brownback's and the Republicans' disastrous policies for Kansas -- and the incredible incompetence and meanness emanating from both the Trum White House and the GOP Congress -- Democrats should be winning. They are not for the same reasons they have been losing nationally now for years: they pay attention to local politics beyond the metropolises too late and too little.
The Kansas election was typical. National Democrat money and muscle and star power entered the race when? Its last week, its closing days.
Democrats will win only when they decide to play local and respect the diversity that this requires. 2018 is not too far away. It is time to start big now. If they don't, sad.
Given the Governor Brownback's and the Republicans' disastrous policies for Kansas -- and the incredible incompetence and meanness emanating from both the Trum White House and the GOP Congress -- Democrats should be winning. They are not for the same reasons they have been losing nationally now for years: they pay attention to local politics beyond the metropolises too late and too little.
The Kansas election was typical. National Democrat money and muscle and star power entered the race when? Its last week, its closing days.
Democrats will win only when they decide to play local and respect the diversity that this requires. 2018 is not too far away. It is time to start big now. If they don't, sad.
169
Looking forward, I think one thing we may be thanking DT for is having radicalized the electorate to exercise their franchise. A third of potential voters did not even bother to go to the polls in 2016. Given the circa 1950 pie-in-the-sky dreams of the old white men in charge, none of which are palatable to the vast majority of Americans ( ex: forced pregnancy; tax breaks for the rich, tax dollars for walls not bridges; polluting water and air so Kochs make even more money...etc.), and given the platform outright lie that the ACA would be somehow improved and made cheaper by Jan 2017, the sleeping electorate will start pulling that lever, with very surprising results.
14
Right on!
2
This, from the same reporter/statistician who told us Hillary had an 87% chance of winning the Presidency just a week before the election! Far too much being read into this result, especially when you consider the GOP will always use lies (fear) to win (ads claiming Thompson supported gender-select abortion).
80
How would you suggest they analyse the results.
3
Don't be too harsh on Nate. By losing Michigan by 11,000 votes STupid became president. Three swing state totaled 77,000 votes. He didn't say 100%. Every so often the 13% wins. Unfortunately we all lost.
3
It will be interesting to see if new progressive organizations like swingleft.org, which matches volunteers with the closest swing, or possible winning, district, have an impact.
9
The fact is Estes comes closest to embodying the beliefs and values of those who voted for him. And that of course is what is truly frightening.
The fact this particular race was relatively close may mean something, or it may not. Too many years of seeing red state citizens vote repeatedly for candidates that do nothing for average people create a lot of doubt in my mind that many of the conservative districts will really change.
They may change over decades, but most won't change quickly. People get locked in that insane repub view that good things will someday trickle down if we just help the rich, and they mostly never do. Kansas under Brownback is a total failure but he keeps getting elected or supported.
Hope of course real change in voter perceptions and preferences comes to trump's America, but it is not likely to occur very rapidly. Most people don't change, sadly. But those of us who care can keep trying to inspire or convince others of the need.
The fact this particular race was relatively close may mean something, or it may not. Too many years of seeing red state citizens vote repeatedly for candidates that do nothing for average people create a lot of doubt in my mind that many of the conservative districts will really change.
They may change over decades, but most won't change quickly. People get locked in that insane repub view that good things will someday trickle down if we just help the rich, and they mostly never do. Kansas under Brownback is a total failure but he keeps getting elected or supported.
Hope of course real change in voter perceptions and preferences comes to trump's America, but it is not likely to occur very rapidly. Most people don't change, sadly. But those of us who care can keep trying to inspire or convince others of the need.
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"People get locked in that insane repub view that good things will someday trickle down if we just help the rich"
I wonder if we've got that wrong, and if it should read, instead: "People get locked in that insane repub view that good things will someday gush up if we just don't help the poor."
I wonder if we've got that wrong, and if it should read, instead: "People get locked in that insane repub view that good things will someday gush up if we just don't help the poor."
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"Most people don't change, sadly."
Change comes when they die off and are replaced. Problem in KS is, as another commenter, Phyliss, notes, new college graduates leave and rarely return. (This one didn't, 48 years ago.)
Change comes when they die off and are replaced. Problem in KS is, as another commenter, Phyliss, notes, new college graduates leave and rarely return. (This one didn't, 48 years ago.)
The DCCC used all its money and muscle in the race to succeed Tom Price in Georgia. Had 25% of the time and money given to Jon Ossoff been directed to James Thompson, the race in Kansas might have been closer or had a different result.
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Yes, but isn't that a sad commentary on politics today. Money buys elections, spend more money, win more elections. Sad.
The DCCC supports only fake Democrats, not real ones.
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Isolated special elections like this one have so many local and idiosyncratic features that they are hard to read as to national effect. The issue of how much of this outcome is due to aversion to Trumpism, vs aversion to Brownbackism, or the tact that Mr. Estes is an uninspiring Republican hack ... is hard to untangle.
To me the biggest conclusion is that many seats the Republicans thought were "safe" will now be contended and at risk. Democratic candidates and support will come forward that would not have before, and this will stretch the Republicans (and their donors).
Secondarily Mr. Estes, with a shaky electoral win, will be in a funny position. If you read his platform, he's an a Freedom Caucus wannabee. But we'll see, because in Congress he'll face reality like all the other Republicans. And with a very narrow win, he'll be far more vulnerable than the firebreathers.
To me the biggest conclusion is that many seats the Republicans thought were "safe" will now be contended and at risk. Democratic candidates and support will come forward that would not have before, and this will stretch the Republicans (and their donors).
Secondarily Mr. Estes, with a shaky electoral win, will be in a funny position. If you read his platform, he's an a Freedom Caucus wannabee. But we'll see, because in Congress he'll face reality like all the other Republicans. And with a very narrow win, he'll be far more vulnerable than the firebreathers.
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"Small and imperfect", I think that sums it up in your words.
The party in control usually takes it on the chin and Trump and the Reps. are no exception.
Having said that, one cannot predict history. Trump is very unpopular but demagogues have a history of staying around for awhile, whether it be the first one in ancient Greece, Alcibedes or the last one in Venz., Chavez. Trump could do a demagogic thing either by choice or accident that could be very popular with the voters.
The party in control usually takes it on the chin and Trump and the Reps. are no exception.
Having said that, one cannot predict history. Trump is very unpopular but demagogues have a history of staying around for awhile, whether it be the first one in ancient Greece, Alcibedes or the last one in Venz., Chavez. Trump could do a demagogic thing either by choice or accident that could be very popular with the voters.
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Trump conned many this past Fall but it seems his powers of persuasion are waning somewhat.
The possibility for him pulling a demgocic move are real and quite strong. The probilities of him pulling off such a move diminish with each episode of shooting himself in the foot while said foot is in his mouth. The frequency of these episodes seems to be constant, if not increasing.
As to his organizational talents, when even the White House Easter Egg hunt poses a major challenge, I see that he would mess up on almost any attempt to pull off such move.
Having said that, he did pull off the greatest scam in History. We best remain vigilant and be ready to act as need be.
The possibility for him pulling a demgocic move are real and quite strong. The probilities of him pulling off such a move diminish with each episode of shooting himself in the foot while said foot is in his mouth. The frequency of these episodes seems to be constant, if not increasing.
As to his organizational talents, when even the White House Easter Egg hunt poses a major challenge, I see that he would mess up on almost any attempt to pull off such move.
Having said that, he did pull off the greatest scam in History. We best remain vigilant and be ready to act as need be.
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Alcibiades was a lot more capable, intelligent, experienced, informed and personable than Trump. I think Trump will flame out much quicker. He has shown brief attention span and poor decision-making skills in many earlier, short-lived businesses he took on.
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I thought Howard Deans '50-state' strategy of a decade ago sounded good in theory but that it might not be as practical, given available resources, as he thought. Based on the results from Kansas, though, it might be the way to go. An upset/angry base probably is the best resource a party can have, and I think it's enough to allow the Democrats to make it a fight in every upcoming election through 2018.
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I thought Howard Dean was right back then, and I still do.
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What was turnout? (WaPo and Politico didn't mention it, either.)
Special elections have lower turnouts that even mid-term elections, which means a very small but motivated minority can win elections. That's how the Tea Party gained prominence. And that's how Democrats can capture GOP seats--by turning out progressive voters. Money's great, but only if it produces votes.
Special elections have lower turnouts that even mid-term elections, which means a very small but motivated minority can win elections. That's how the Tea Party gained prominence. And that's how Democrats can capture GOP seats--by turning out progressive voters. Money's great, but only if it produces votes.
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Apparently, Thompson wanted 20 thou dollars for a mailing and the DCCC turned him down. That was a completely bad call. The DCCC seems to think that the tiptoe strategy works - don't arouse the massive GOP machine, play invisible, and hope that you tiptoe to victory. That is incredibly dumb. Perhaps the Dems shouldn't have matched the 200 thou the GOP poured in at the last second, but they could have been much more supportive. I'm reminded of a recents story on the Ossoff race. Some consultant told Ossoff not to promote putting up lawn signs for his supporters. Reason? Cause that would awaken GOP voters. As a campaign worker successfully pointed out, nothing depresses Dem vote like the national Dem committee endorsing the idea that Dems are in a weird minority. Get out of the closet and act up, Dems!
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The turnout was quite low - about half the average of the past 5 elections for the same district. The truth of the matter is that there are a lot of Democrats so aghast at their loss in November that they were able to stir up some hardcore ideologues and get a disproportionate turnout in a special election... and still lost.
Do you really think a district that typically runs 150000 Republican votes to 80000 Democratic is somehow going to flip?
Do you really think a district that typically runs 150000 Republican votes to 80000 Democratic is somehow going to flip?
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For many years now, we've been hearing that the Democrats are coming back and that the US demographics will eventually result in a Blue majority.
Apparently, this is more fake news, because not only has this not happened, we've gone in exactly the opposite direction with a "President", "Congress" and a majority of state legislatures that are nearly fascist in their actions.
Apparently, this is more fake news, because not only has this not happened, we've gone in exactly the opposite direction with a "President", "Congress" and a majority of state legislatures that are nearly fascist in their actions.
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Demographics will win in the end, however at this moment, many Republican legislatures have eliminated early voting, put in place draconian voter id laws, and cut down the number of voting booths in predominately minority neighborhoods. Voting also occurs on a Tuesday, a day that many work. Some people work shifts or two jobs, again, mostly the poor. If we were serious about voting, we'd make it easier, and make it over a weekend.
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The Kansas special election had early voting. I think Ricky has a point.
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Republicans in control of the states ARE serious about voting. That's what gerrymandering and suppressing the vote is all about. And we LOST in Kansas. Close be damned. Once again Dems are in a delusional state. Contrary to what is being asserted, this does NOT bode well for the mid-terms.
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Why didn't the Democrats pour money into the Kansas race? I don't get it. We need to fight hard for every potential seat. I don't care if they assumed it would be a loss. We want you to fight hard in every single race, every single state. It's important to show we're willing to fight even if we lose. These Republicans need to be taught a lesson.
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The reason why the Democrats didn't pour money into the Kansas race is probably one of the following three:
1. They didn't see any way they could actually win. If this was the reason, then I completely agree that they need to fight anyway to send the message that they will fight everywhere. This will have the benefit of increasing enthusiasm for "more winnable" races as well.
2. They're so cash-strapped at the moment (with their big donors largely staying on the sidelines and with small-donor networks not yet fully mobilized) that they couldn't put money into this race. If this was the reason, then they should get Bernie Sanders (who won the Kansas primary last spring) and others who focus on small-donor contributions to get their supporters involved to make up the difference.
3. In their heart of hearts, they don't want to win in places like Kansas because it's "flyover country" and the party leadership/establishment (which is overwhelmingly from the Northeast or the West Coast) has contempt for the parts of "flyover country" not named Chicago or Minnesota. If this is the reason, then they should disband. Seriously. If the Democrats are not willing to be a truly national party anymore, then they are merely an obstacle and should get out of the way.
1. They didn't see any way they could actually win. If this was the reason, then I completely agree that they need to fight anyway to send the message that they will fight everywhere. This will have the benefit of increasing enthusiasm for "more winnable" races as well.
2. They're so cash-strapped at the moment (with their big donors largely staying on the sidelines and with small-donor networks not yet fully mobilized) that they couldn't put money into this race. If this was the reason, then they should get Bernie Sanders (who won the Kansas primary last spring) and others who focus on small-donor contributions to get their supporters involved to make up the difference.
3. In their heart of hearts, they don't want to win in places like Kansas because it's "flyover country" and the party leadership/establishment (which is overwhelmingly from the Northeast or the West Coast) has contempt for the parts of "flyover country" not named Chicago or Minnesota. If this is the reason, then they should disband. Seriously. If the Democrats are not willing to be a truly national party anymore, then they are merely an obstacle and should get out of the way.
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A win is a win is a win is a win (say that in rubato singing style). Go Republicans (but they best beware of cuts to Medicare).
We're putting our money into the Georgia race. And there are some others coming up. Was this the correct strategic decision? I don't know. I don't know how much money is available. I do know that winning Newtie's old seat would be sweet indeed.
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Look you can believe what you want. Maybe Trump is toxic. But don't use the special election in Kansas as a fact point. If you do you will look as stupid as our Governor.