Unlike the government, the central bank has a rather narrowly focused technical mandate to preserve the value of the currency, which largely means controlling the rate of inflation. It is not mandated to tow the political line of the government precisely in order to preserve confidence in the currency. While Trump and his ship of fools are doing their level best to destroy the legitimacy and integrity of organized governance, this is one area they can tinker with only at great risk to the economy and to America's place in the world economy. One can only hope they see clearly enough through their ideological blinkers to understand at least this much and leave the Fed to do its job as intended.
1
So, 45 is pressing for growth heedless of inflation. Is that because he believes it is best for the country, or because his companies are carrying a heavy load of highly leveraged debt? It makes a huge difference.
3
Oh my, how things have changed! Prior to 1/20, criticism of keeping rates too low and goosing the economy was a refrain that lingered on the lips of nearly every fiscally conservative Republican. Now, all we hear in response to President Trump's call for continued low rates is the drone of crickets! Perhaps he has discovered that the President has little control over the economy, or more likely will announce that the Presidential Magic Wand of Economy has been stolen by his predecessor!
1
"the Presidential Magic Wand of Economy" Now that's poetry
Is this the same Donald J. Trump who was screaming bloody murder during his campaign that the Fed was keeping the rates artificially too low? He was demanding that they raise it.
Okay. So? What's his problem now?
Okay. So? What's his problem now?
Trump wants faster growth....but, Trump doesn't know what he's doing. All he cares about is to look like he is "winning", that he is actually doing something, when he's not...really. He's still trying to figure out which way is up.
1
What happens when President Trump does not get the faster growth he is looking for? According to the extreme right's cook-book, the recipe for the fast growth calls for starting a war. So, watch for Mr. Trump's moves toward securing this key ingredient. Starting a war is also the best diversionary tactic for switching public's attention from any Russian connection. And, most importantly, as George Bush told us, when you are a "war president" winning a second term is a "slam dunk" (or was it "walk in the park"?)
1
His Highness has for now dealt with different topics that comply to some extent with ego-centric handling : TV show business, campaigning, decrees, and military spendings.
When it comes to more speculative topics - health coverage, macroeconomics, or diplomacy - one not only needs to appreciate the other's point of view : one also needs to accept that the core topic is indeed the multiplicity of the others' points of views.
I'm quite curious to see how America's new King will be reining the stats.
When it comes to more speculative topics - health coverage, macroeconomics, or diplomacy - one not only needs to appreciate the other's point of view : one also needs to accept that the core topic is indeed the multiplicity of the others' points of views.
I'm quite curious to see how America's new King will be reining the stats.
This is it. Trump's one and only sweet spot: Money. And lots of it. It's the fuel on which his bottomless need for ego satisfaction runs 24/7/365. A turbocharged, inflationary economy works best for him so achieving it will be his sole reason for being. He'll bully the Fed until he gets his way so he can keep living, breathing and bloviating in the thrall of the next 1,387 or more news cycles. All the other stuff? Deep state? Health Care? Terrorism? Jobs? Immigration? Transgender issues? Abortion? Border wall? Those throwaway issues are merely the tools he used to manipulate his craven enablers and ill-informed supporters into giving him control of all the levers of the economy. Those suckers projected onto him straight-talking, drain the swamp leadership qualities that never existed and never will. Remember, this is the same con man who first tried on Democratic and then Independent principles before going with the red-meat authoritarian Republican clown suit he's wearing so successfully to further his pathological need for endless enrichment and ego satisfaction. All this to the everlasting shame of those in this country who let this happen.
3
Trumps agenda has nothing to do with helping an enriching Americans unless you are the 1%.
Dotcom bubble; housing bubble. Trump bubble?
There is much too much money floating around Wall Street already Mr. Trump. Until capitalists can find a way to spread the wealth, and allow workers to share their piece of it, we have no reason to stimulate the economy. Our economy is generating billions in profits already. President Obama dragged us out of our last recession. It is not up to you to create another. Just let the economy grow at its current pace. That will serve us all as well as it can. Until the 1% are ready to share some of the pie with the rest of us there is no point in growing any more quickly; none whatsoever.
There is much too much money floating around Wall Street already Mr. Trump. Until capitalists can find a way to spread the wealth, and allow workers to share their piece of it, we have no reason to stimulate the economy. Our economy is generating billions in profits already. President Obama dragged us out of our last recession. It is not up to you to create another. Just let the economy grow at its current pace. That will serve us all as well as it can. Until the 1% are ready to share some of the pie with the rest of us there is no point in growing any more quickly; none whatsoever.
3
Economics 101: Presidents do not make economic bubbles
Central Banks like the Federal Reserve make bubbles.
Which is what the Fed has created. Again. For the 2nd time in just since 2000.
When it pops you should blame an incompetent Fed.
Central Banks like the Federal Reserve make bubbles.
Which is what the Fed has created. Again. For the 2nd time in just since 2000.
When it pops you should blame an incompetent Fed.
1
This Trumpian move is exactly what his fan Glenn Beck wants. The Beck crowd is bullish on Gold. Gold. Gold. Gold. Inflation will make Beck millions and Trump
will profit also. Just another element to fleece the rubes.
will profit also. Just another element to fleece the rubes.
4
Yet Trump campaigned, correctly on this and about two only other points, saying that the Fed was to blame for stoking a massive stock market bubble - which it is, in part having gone too far these last years, and so to blame when it pops, leaving the Fed to launder the losses again courtesy of middle class and retirees while the banksters get home free again with more of our money.
2
The Fed has been destroying the U.S. economy since 1913. All it does now is bail out bankrupt casino banks. Get rid of it! What we need is a Hamiltonian National Bank for economic development that will direct credit to productive enterprises and create jobs, not bail out swindling private banks.
3
Lets see....the Fed has maintained insane zero/near zero interest rates for 8 years in order to prop up the economy, has engaged in never ending "quantitative easing" by purchasing 5 TRILLION in mortgages and other "securities" - in other words, massive non stop printing press FIAT money printing........and only now is starting to talk about raising rates a few quarters of a single percent! Insane.
The Congress needs to set proper boundaries for the Fed as it is the Fed that caused the previous two major recessions. The employment mandate needs to be repealed. And a maximum and minimum range of prime interest rate needs to be established - such as never below 2% and never above 8%. And the ability to engage in never ending QE stopped and perhaps some kind of rational cap.
When interest rates to go back to a normal average, even a low end average the Federal government will struggle mightily to pay the interest on the $20 TRILLION national debt. This will cause a major recession. And when the Fed finally "unwinds" (have to love the Orwellian language) it massive insane QE and actually begins to sell all those "assets" there will be major downward price pressure on all other such similar assets which will also hurt the macro economy.
Basically, the Fed has dug a bigger whole for this country this go around then it did after the 2000-2002 recession that it created.
The Congress needs to set proper boundaries for the Fed as it is the Fed that caused the previous two major recessions. The employment mandate needs to be repealed. And a maximum and minimum range of prime interest rate needs to be established - such as never below 2% and never above 8%. And the ability to engage in never ending QE stopped and perhaps some kind of rational cap.
When interest rates to go back to a normal average, even a low end average the Federal government will struggle mightily to pay the interest on the $20 TRILLION national debt. This will cause a major recession. And when the Fed finally "unwinds" (have to love the Orwellian language) it massive insane QE and actually begins to sell all those "assets" there will be major downward price pressure on all other such similar assets which will also hurt the macro economy.
Basically, the Fed has dug a bigger whole for this country this go around then it did after the 2000-2002 recession that it created.
1
You need an economic plan to get faster growth - it doesn't happen in isolation. https://lgnz.co.nz/assets/Publications/Business-friendly-Councils.pdf
Nonpolitically motivated opinion: Trump has amazingly little about an incredibly broad range of topics. Apparently, none of this mattered when he was building hotels. We saw with Rumsfeld and Cheney what happened when you combined arrogance with willful ignorance (Iraq). Trump combines arrogance, ignorance that comes honestly in his case, and two other flaws: questionable character and emotional instability. Put it all together and we are all in trouble. His time will pass and what will we have left? An isolated country and dumbed-down and divided populace.
12
My experience, the few folks I've come across in my life are that way to hide major flaws within themselves.
Be it ignorance, Fear (ironically folks will see how ignorant they really are), genuinely narcissistic, or lack social graces (similar to the ignorance but the lacking is by choice vs actual ignorance),..
Be it ignorance, Fear (ironically folks will see how ignorant they really are), genuinely narcissistic, or lack social graces (similar to the ignorance but the lacking is by choice vs actual ignorance),..
Emperor President Trump believes that he runs the country solely for his own benefit. He has never shown any understanding that the president's job is constrained by the obligation to be accountable to the American people for every policy and position his administration puts forward.
All those job positions he has not filled from the Fed and State Departments to his own office are jobs that ensure there are people to create policy, take care of the multiple details and communicate them to the average citizen. That is the president's role and commitment to the Constitution as sworn under oath.
Trump only knows force and no accountability. He has shut the door and handed out redundancy notices. Government doesn't need people to see to the details if all policies are cancelled and all interactions with the rest of the world are by tweet.
The Commander in Chief is the only role he likes to play. The military and border patrol have become enforcers without restraints. They don't need civilian control just money.
Whatever Trump decides to do with the economy, you can bet that there won't be a department to churn out credible numbers to keep us all informed.
All those job positions he has not filled from the Fed and State Departments to his own office are jobs that ensure there are people to create policy, take care of the multiple details and communicate them to the average citizen. That is the president's role and commitment to the Constitution as sworn under oath.
Trump only knows force and no accountability. He has shut the door and handed out redundancy notices. Government doesn't need people to see to the details if all policies are cancelled and all interactions with the rest of the world are by tweet.
The Commander in Chief is the only role he likes to play. The military and border patrol have become enforcers without restraints. They don't need civilian control just money.
Whatever Trump decides to do with the economy, you can bet that there won't be a department to churn out credible numbers to keep us all informed.
10
We are told by the Federal Reserve that growth has to be "sustainable" which is another way of saying that it should not generate inflation. If the duty to prevent inflation is in the hands of the Federal Reserve then logically the Federal Reserve defines growth, whether it is 1.8%, 2.1% or some other number. So then shouldn't we be electing the head of the Federal Reserve since it is this agency that determines the condition of our lives?
How do we gain productivity? Whose chin is being 'tickled' by this administration to stimulate growth?
I wonder because I see no legislation rather than Trump care which by most accounts, save for the CBO as yet to be heard from, will be more of a disaster than anything else, unless of course you're rich and getting a tax break.
Where are jobs the Trump expertise is supposedly creating. What success as a businessman does he actually have unless you count losing money in the casino realm and multiple bankruptcies.
Note to Trump: saying you want faster growth doesn't make it so. Where is the infrastructure bill?
Where is the jobs stimulus and the great economic plan...where are the manufacturing jobs, not counting the ones already in flux during the Obama years.
Yeah, I thought so...keep playing golf and tweeting, Mr. Trump. Apparently they let you win. That's what it's all about.
I wonder because I see no legislation rather than Trump care which by most accounts, save for the CBO as yet to be heard from, will be more of a disaster than anything else, unless of course you're rich and getting a tax break.
Where are jobs the Trump expertise is supposedly creating. What success as a businessman does he actually have unless you count losing money in the casino realm and multiple bankruptcies.
Note to Trump: saying you want faster growth doesn't make it so. Where is the infrastructure bill?
Where is the jobs stimulus and the great economic plan...where are the manufacturing jobs, not counting the ones already in flux during the Obama years.
Yeah, I thought so...keep playing golf and tweeting, Mr. Trump. Apparently they let you win. That's what it's all about.
4
Trump really hasn't a clue when it comes to the economy, but what makes it worse is that he thinks he does. His desire to compete with President Obama's impressive achievements will push inflation and create numerous investment bubbles which will explode in our face. He needs to slow down until he actually understands what he is doing. This applies to the economy as a whole and that important part of the economy that is healthcare.
11
... until he actually understands what he is doing.
not enough time left in this universe for that
not enough time left in this universe for that
1
It's really swell that U-3 has plunged to 4.7%. It's even more swell that the Fed thinks this means the good old American economy is hitting on all seven cylinders.
With darn near full employment (forget about U-6 at 9.2%, or the actual quality of all those jobs being created) we should be able to pay off that pesky $20 Trillion debt in no time. It'll be great to save that $432 Billion we paid just in interest last year.
Deficits? Hah! They'll be hauling money into the Treasury by the boatload with the economy steaming along at a hundred per.
Students will be celebrating in the streets as their $1.56 Trillion in debt melts away with those high paying jobs they're all landing. Out of the folks' basement into their own cool pad.
Those 43,000,000 poverty dwellers are set to soak up the promise of the American Dream. Watch out middle class, here they come.
Thank Adam Smith that the Fed doesn't want this overheated frenzy to bring our robust economy crashing down around our noggins. No, madam, things are looking so good, don't spoil it.
With darn near full employment (forget about U-6 at 9.2%, or the actual quality of all those jobs being created) we should be able to pay off that pesky $20 Trillion debt in no time. It'll be great to save that $432 Billion we paid just in interest last year.
Deficits? Hah! They'll be hauling money into the Treasury by the boatload with the economy steaming along at a hundred per.
Students will be celebrating in the streets as their $1.56 Trillion in debt melts away with those high paying jobs they're all landing. Out of the folks' basement into their own cool pad.
Those 43,000,000 poverty dwellers are set to soak up the promise of the American Dream. Watch out middle class, here they come.
Thank Adam Smith that the Fed doesn't want this overheated frenzy to bring our robust economy crashing down around our noggins. No, madam, things are looking so good, don't spoil it.
2
We don't need faster growth, we need the proceeds of that growth to be shared more with the middle class and less to the rich. Yet Trump's tax plan and ACA repeal do the opposite - take from the middle class and give to the rich. Next election, people read need to listen for specific plans rather than what-they-want-to-hear-platitudes before deciding. They voted for what they thought was one thing and got the other here.
5
If we don't do something about 45 before next February when Chairman Yellen's term ends, we, and our way of life, will be toast. With control of the three branches of government AND the central bank, our so-called president will sell us down the river to enrich himself and his business cronies. Then we really will see defaults on Treasuries and rampant inflation. God help us!
7
Several comments equate growth to a healthy manufacturing industry and is Germany as a model to which we should compare ourselves. Germany. however, supports that sector and its workers in ways that Republicans have been adverse to committing monies toward - free or low-cost technical jobs focused secondary and posta secondary education; single payer healthcare; strong unions; paid parental leave - just to mention a few. Somehow I doubt this is what the President or his party have in mind when they call for more growth.
7
"Germany, however, supports [manufacturing] sector and its workers .... [by] free or low-cost technical jobs; focused secondary and post-secondary education; single payer healthcare; strong unions; paid parental leave" and, let's not forget, 5 weeks/year vacations. That is how your country pays you to enjoy your life and comeback to work relaxed, with full energy. It is this additional vacation time that creates many new jobs and higher employment in Germany.
2
When has the diseased mind of Trump EVER been restrained about ANYTHING?
No restraint whatsoever about marrying over and over, insulting and assaulting women over and over, falsely hurling accusations at innocent people and respected institutions; this is his consistent modus operandi. The man isn't capable of using appropriate restraint and dignity in any endeavor. These qualities are a hallmark of mental illness.
No restraint whatsoever about marrying over and over, insulting and assaulting women over and over, falsely hurling accusations at innocent people and respected institutions; this is his consistent modus operandi. The man isn't capable of using appropriate restraint and dignity in any endeavor. These qualities are a hallmark of mental illness.
7
Economic conditions are improving?!?
Good heavens! We can't have that! Thank G-d Janet's there to put an end to it!
There's no inflation in sight, and she/they're worried about inflation.
Meanwhile, millions of people are still unemployed, under-employed, or have simply dropped out of the labor market.
Good heavens! We can't have that! Thank G-d Janet's there to put an end to it!
There's no inflation in sight, and she/they're worried about inflation.
Meanwhile, millions of people are still unemployed, under-employed, or have simply dropped out of the labor market.
4
The title and story gives the wrong impression. Trump's plan is flawed. The FRB is only managing inflation.
5
To stimulate economic growth you need to form alliances with other countries. Just saying!
3
(Un)Fortunately(?) seems our current POTUS is closer than close to his boy Vladimir in Russia.
3
Growth above 2 percent in a mature economy is very difficult to achieve particularly when several sectors such as Auto , commercial real estate and residential have reached their peak and will stagnate or decline.particularly as interest rates rise.
Of course Trump has plans to cut jobs in Government which will not help.
Manufacturing maybe a growth opportunity but there is already a skill shortage as our educational system has failed us, particularly technical.
Automation and Innovation will continue to replace unskilled workers.
Lack of a skilled work force maybe a bottle neck in our infrastructure renewal which is Trumps only real hope .
The upshot is if Trump goes ahead in cutting Corporate tax without insuring revenue neutrality, spends on infrastructure without paying for it our National Debt will balloon out of control. Oh I forgot add to the that the increase in Government spending and loss of Revenue on Trump Don't Care Health plan
This will be the pretext for Ryan to go after Social Security and Medicare.
Beware America.
Of course Trump has plans to cut jobs in Government which will not help.
Manufacturing maybe a growth opportunity but there is already a skill shortage as our educational system has failed us, particularly technical.
Automation and Innovation will continue to replace unskilled workers.
Lack of a skilled work force maybe a bottle neck in our infrastructure renewal which is Trumps only real hope .
The upshot is if Trump goes ahead in cutting Corporate tax without insuring revenue neutrality, spends on infrastructure without paying for it our National Debt will balloon out of control. Oh I forgot add to the that the increase in Government spending and loss of Revenue on Trump Don't Care Health plan
This will be the pretext for Ryan to go after Social Security and Medicare.
Beware America.
4
Faster growth may or may not be a good thing, but if Trump wants it, I would have to believe that he does it out of ignorance, bad advice, or to make himself look better-- not as something helping all Americans. In other words, he cannot be trusted.
7
Economic growth is a function of population and productivity growth. The Fed says 2% for good reason; no amount of political rhetoric will change the math.
6
We have here the usual harvest: all the bad things Trump is GOING to do; all the terrible results from his administration we are GOING to see; all the evils for which he must be punished that he is GOING to commit.
In the meantime, he has been in office for just 6 weeks. Business big and small are delighted. The police and military love him. So does the Middle class - you remember them. He is keeping his campaign promises.
I realize these are all new things to all you progressives. Get used to it.
In the meantime, he has been in office for just 6 weeks. Business big and small are delighted. The police and military love him. So does the Middle class - you remember them. He is keeping his campaign promises.
I realize these are all new things to all you progressives. Get used to it.
3
Really? The middle class loves having their water polluted and the prospect of having to pay higher health insurance premiums once uninsured people start going to the ER for health care?
5
The Federal Reserve has never done anything correct. It cannot. If there actually was a "correct" interest rate, then a monkey could easily hold the wheel to that number. Since the Federal Reserve was created, it has forever done wrong - because it cannot know the "correct" interest rate. Because only the free market - made up of the hundreds of millions of people making trading decisions in this country - can establish what that rate is.
The Federal Reserve is responsible for every boom and bust this country has suffered since its inception - and has blamed everyone but itself for the disasters of each bust.
The Federal Reserve is responsible for every boom and bust this country has suffered since its inception - and has blamed everyone but itself for the disasters of each bust.
2
Growth is not the problem for most Americans; the problem is wealth distribution. Most growth directly benefits the top 5% of Americans. This is because of (1) a tax system the directly benefits capital owners over income earners, and, (2) ongoing structural changes in the economy that accrue multiplicative benefits to elites in certain industries. Overheating the economy at this point will lead to a repeat of the asset inflation which caused the 2009 near-miss. A visionary President would be talking about the structural issues at the heart of the widening prosperity gap, but Trump has to reduce everything to a few words and one concept. You really couldn't pick a worse time for that outlook.
4
Faster growth? The unemployment rate is 4.7% which Trump and his Trumpettes are suddenly embracing. Inflation is ZERO. 20 million people have health insurance who never had before. People forget it was the Republicans who always said there was no money to pay for infrastructure or investments to drive the economy. (remember the sequester?) Suddenly there's billions for Defense, The Wall and tax cuts.
You Rethugs will regret all this when the economy blows up again like it did under Reagan/W. Spending/tax cuts/high interest rates. All coming down the pike. Only this time - no safety nets.
You Rethugs will regret all this when the economy blows up again like it did under Reagan/W. Spending/tax cuts/high interest rates. All coming down the pike. Only this time - no safety nets.
9
It's more or less irrelevant what Trump thinks when it comes to FED policy. He's been in office for all of 60 days. Meanwhile the FED has been carrying on its bizarre ZIRP policies for almost ten years now.
I find it interesting that the FED is ready to raise rates again so quickly when nothing, fundamentally, has changed since last year when virtually any hiccup in news brought a retreat into the caves of caution.
I do think we need rates to rise.....but not because of any dubious reading of the tea leaves.... but because a return to a normal economy will require a return to a normal interest rate.
I'm glad the FED is finally getting religion...although I'm not sure its for the right reason.
I find it interesting that the FED is ready to raise rates again so quickly when nothing, fundamentally, has changed since last year when virtually any hiccup in news brought a retreat into the caves of caution.
I do think we need rates to rise.....but not because of any dubious reading of the tea leaves.... but because a return to a normal economy will require a return to a normal interest rate.
I'm glad the FED is finally getting religion...although I'm not sure its for the right reason.
2
Glossary
growth = productive capital increasing employment, not wages.
cheap money = when the Fed sells US Treasury securities, itcrediting individual accounts of member banks with the proceeds.
Historically, then, cheap money paid our expenses for that "shock and awe" in Baghdad which fed a real estate bubble (after the dot-com bubble in stocks).
asset prices = for several years now, the Fed has been tracking stock prices (equity, not debt) to index property values in support of rents in terms of dollars.
While Republicans are the first to complain that Government isn't running like a household, they are also the last to recognize that inflation is already "cooked into" the deficits they spent on wars. Very wealthy flag-wavers grow more and more impatient for their guaranteed incomes to reflect higher interest rates, they preach a gospel that promises to produce jobs for the unemployed rather than wages for those who are employed but whose wages or salaries no longer pay real rent, unlike property revenues.
The problem is "scarcity" in Economics, folks, not the Affordable Care Act.
When Donald entertains the Chinese leader at his Florida Xanadu, surrounded by his link to Pence Subuniversity, can we also invite the Washington Press Corps? Chinese history may recall that "shock and awe" plan (?) when George Bush spent his "political capital" by selling them bonds which brought us homeless from Alleppo. So what's "fair" trade with the Chinese?
growth = productive capital increasing employment, not wages.
cheap money = when the Fed sells US Treasury securities, itcrediting individual accounts of member banks with the proceeds.
Historically, then, cheap money paid our expenses for that "shock and awe" in Baghdad which fed a real estate bubble (after the dot-com bubble in stocks).
asset prices = for several years now, the Fed has been tracking stock prices (equity, not debt) to index property values in support of rents in terms of dollars.
While Republicans are the first to complain that Government isn't running like a household, they are also the last to recognize that inflation is already "cooked into" the deficits they spent on wars. Very wealthy flag-wavers grow more and more impatient for their guaranteed incomes to reflect higher interest rates, they preach a gospel that promises to produce jobs for the unemployed rather than wages for those who are employed but whose wages or salaries no longer pay real rent, unlike property revenues.
The problem is "scarcity" in Economics, folks, not the Affordable Care Act.
When Donald entertains the Chinese leader at his Florida Xanadu, surrounded by his link to Pence Subuniversity, can we also invite the Washington Press Corps? Chinese history may recall that "shock and awe" plan (?) when George Bush spent his "political capital" by selling them bonds which brought us homeless from Alleppo. So what's "fair" trade with the Chinese?
1
Higher interest rates please!
2
"Growth" is such a nebulous term that the millions of average folks will be lost in its nuance, and will take the word of politicians who do not know much about economics to begin with as it is but proclaim they do. See, we live in a complex society with complex parts but for some reason a good lot of people feel the need to boil everything down into simple parts for simpletons.
4
Trump knows one thing - inflation is bad for his rich creditor friends as it makes the value of their investments dwindle. It's good for us borrowers - our debt becomes less expensive.
He may publicly rant about it - as he does everything else - but it's in his interest to listen to the fed on this.
He may publicly rant about it - as he does everything else - but it's in his interest to listen to the fed on this.
1
Now, Donald, you wouldn't be hoping to use your Presidency to pad the the family trillions, would you?
6
TRUMP WANTS FASTER GROWTH? Now let's see.
Travel ban on tourists from Muslim countries at a loss of how many billions in profits from tourism?
Travel ban on tourists slashes 90,000 US jobs.
The 1% get a tax break.
Build a wall on the US Mexican Border and slash funds from the Coast Guard. Trump went to the Donald Duck Academy of Foreign Policy where he earned a certificate as the Quack-In-Chief.
Travel ban on tourists from Muslim countries at a loss of how many billions in profits from tourism?
Travel ban on tourists slashes 90,000 US jobs.
The 1% get a tax break.
Build a wall on the US Mexican Border and slash funds from the Coast Guard. Trump went to the Donald Duck Academy of Foreign Policy where he earned a certificate as the Quack-In-Chief.
6
Don't know which is more appalling - article or comments...
Obama smoked-and-mirrored his way (though, in fairness, Newt and Dubya showed him how) through eight years of stagnation and decline - using the fiscal adrenaline of zero interest rates and trillion dollar annual deficits to pretend...
Progressives - do lose the comparisons to Hitler...
But - do begin to compare/contrast the US's path under Obama, to that of Germany and of Greece...
Tell me which economy values manufacturing more...
The healthiest thing would be for the both the discount rate and the (real) GDP growth to get to about three percent...
As far as the debt...
Just as it took a Nixon to open China - it may take a Mnuchen and Cohn together, to monetize an optimal percentage of the US debt...
Can already hear Krugman howling, on this scenario...
Let it go hand-in-hand with the tax and regulatory reform that would allow more than a trillion dollars of corporate cash to be - constructively - repatriated...
Obama smoked-and-mirrored his way (though, in fairness, Newt and Dubya showed him how) through eight years of stagnation and decline - using the fiscal adrenaline of zero interest rates and trillion dollar annual deficits to pretend...
Progressives - do lose the comparisons to Hitler...
But - do begin to compare/contrast the US's path under Obama, to that of Germany and of Greece...
Tell me which economy values manufacturing more...
The healthiest thing would be for the both the discount rate and the (real) GDP growth to get to about three percent...
As far as the debt...
Just as it took a Nixon to open China - it may take a Mnuchen and Cohn together, to monetize an optimal percentage of the US debt...
Can already hear Krugman howling, on this scenario...
Let it go hand-in-hand with the tax and regulatory reform that would allow more than a trillion dollars of corporate cash to be - constructively - repatriated...
Again the Times headline recklessly provides ammunition for the enormous Trump con. As if Trump's reverse Robin Hood actual proposals will do anything to promote sustainable economic growth. By framing fed vs. Trump in this language, the author again legitimizes the lying president's sham populism. A shame for the paper and all of us, again.
4
Donald has not seized on the opportunity to appoint his people? What people? he has no people. Fifty years as a New York tycoon and he has no friends and trusts no one. Donald has no people to fill his dance book, much less the hundreds of empty government slots, and he has no policy to implement until someone who knows something can formalize it for him.
In our effort to deal with the political reality of Donald Trump, let's not presume he develops policy like a real president.
In our effort to deal with the political reality of Donald Trump, let's not presume he develops policy like a real president.
9
Growing the economy is job one of Trump and Congress. For too many Americans, there is an economic crisis.
I fear we are headed for real trouble as the housing market heats up and stock prices climb. What is going to sustain this? We will undoubtedly see a rise in construction jobs as much of the country starts to rebuild after this winters many weather related disasters. Will the materials they use be made here or in some foreign country? Construction jobs are basically temporary while the plants that make the materials used offer more permanent employment. And more permanent jobs are what we need here.
I think that Wall Street is once again going to operate in a careless and unchecked manner and we are going to see another recession that the Donald will try to blame on the Obama and the democrats. The big question is what will it cost the American taxpayers this time?
I think that Wall Street is once again going to operate in a careless and unchecked manner and we are going to see another recession that the Donald will try to blame on the Obama and the democrats. The big question is what will it cost the American taxpayers this time?
4
Let the corporations and banks start using and risk there own treasure to create bubbles that will inevitably fail! The free money should have ended long ago!!
1
"On the other hand, she [Yellen] said, the Fed would try to offset faster growth “if we think that it is demand-based and threatens our inflation objective” — a technical description of what would happen if Congress cut taxes or increased spending."
The cat is finally out of the bag - although anyone paying attention during the aftermath of the popping of the demand bubble (huge deficiency of demand caused by the sudden fall in housing construction), could clearly see that the banker appointees of president Obama did *not* want to fill that big hole in demand. They were quite content to let millions of people lose their homes and life savings, while pretending the massive unemployment in the post-bubble years was due to a "financial crisis" - a term justifying a bailout for the bankers, while letting the economy recover on its own very slowly over several years. Years of lost productivity, high unemployment - when that labor could have been used to build infrastructure.
So, Trump has finally done something right. We are finally having a conversation about jobs and the economy involving the word "demand". Only a high-demand economy can restore broad prosperity - something both bankers and voters know very well. That is why Trump is now president.
It is about time that we had pro-demand fiscal policy. Trump and Bernie both wanted that. Too bad Bernie wasn't an option.
The cat is finally out of the bag - although anyone paying attention during the aftermath of the popping of the demand bubble (huge deficiency of demand caused by the sudden fall in housing construction), could clearly see that the banker appointees of president Obama did *not* want to fill that big hole in demand. They were quite content to let millions of people lose their homes and life savings, while pretending the massive unemployment in the post-bubble years was due to a "financial crisis" - a term justifying a bailout for the bankers, while letting the economy recover on its own very slowly over several years. Years of lost productivity, high unemployment - when that labor could have been used to build infrastructure.
So, Trump has finally done something right. We are finally having a conversation about jobs and the economy involving the word "demand". Only a high-demand economy can restore broad prosperity - something both bankers and voters know very well. That is why Trump is now president.
It is about time that we had pro-demand fiscal policy. Trump and Bernie both wanted that. Too bad Bernie wasn't an option.
4
Trump more clearly indicates who he really represents; big business and the very rich. Screw the world, global warming is a hoax, let the middle class think I am for them and I can help my friends. So if Janet Yellen doesn't give him what he wants he will ask for her resignation or fire her. Balance of power is a myth to this president.
10
Growth for the wealthy, is what he means. I think most people don't care about wall street as long as they have good jobs, affordable homes, decent wages and healthcare. We clearly have an imbalance in this nation and 45 along with our current congress isn't going to make it any better, in fact, they are blind to middle class, low income and the poor. As a history buff, I've read about what happens when the inequality gap becomes unbearable. It's not a good outcome. We as a nation can either care about our populace now or care later, but care we will.
36
Economic growth is good. (Duh!)
However, Trump's expectations are why most business people are idiots when it comes to national and global economics. After 4 decades in the business world, I've seen ridiculous annual/quarterly goals for revenue growth, blah, blah, blah. That's fine for "challenging" employees (especially sales people), but lousy financial planning when you actually EXPECT to hit ridiculous targets.
No wonder this guy went bankrupt X times.
However, Trump's expectations are why most business people are idiots when it comes to national and global economics. After 4 decades in the business world, I've seen ridiculous annual/quarterly goals for revenue growth, blah, blah, blah. That's fine for "challenging" employees (especially sales people), but lousy financial planning when you actually EXPECT to hit ridiculous targets.
No wonder this guy went bankrupt X times.
6
Faster growth, bigger asset bubble, bigger recession, in the end. Where was he in 2008 when that bubble burst?
9
Trump only knows wheeling and dealing real estate and licensing deals. Then file bankruptcy when it goes south.
11
he knows branding, litigation and tax evasion. all the rest went by the way a while ago.
3
When growth fails to meet Trump's promised lever, he has a scapegoat ready. I can see the tweet now, "Bad Fed, incompetent growth killers, Loosers."
12
On TV Trump mentioned his concern with an economic bubble would be in his own pocket, increasing his own interest in more of them bubbles bursting. Of course you can't take the man at his own word. Who will win the country? Trump or the Fed? I take the side of the Fed. Who wishes to start betting on this like good Americans should.
4
Trump inherited an economy on the uptick but soon he will be tweeting about how much things are better since his arrival.
All the sweat blood and tears of the Obama
administration have been dismissed. Republicans are now ready to take credit for doing nothing to stimulate the economy
over the last eight years.
All the sweat blood and tears of the Obama
administration have been dismissed. Republicans are now ready to take credit for doing nothing to stimulate the economy
over the last eight years.
21
A friend who was in a third world nation's uprising to throw off a terrible dictatorship and install a democratic regime soon found herself under indictment as a 'rebel' and barely escaped the death penalty by fleeing to the US. The new regime saw how effective she and her cohort had been at toppling the government and wanted none of them around...
Her words, "That is how it always works. You do something great and the fascists come along and take it away from you and claim all the credit."
Why is that? Because fascists can only be copycats. They have no real minds of their own.
Her words, "That is how it always works. You do something great and the fascists come along and take it away from you and claim all the credit."
Why is that? Because fascists can only be copycats. They have no real minds of their own.
6
When Jeb! Bush promised 4% growth in GDP, he was derided as a naïf and worse.
4
Neither Trump nor anyone on his team know anything about economics, but this won`t get in the way of firing everyone at the Fed who opposes the dictator`s whim. This is how third-world dictatorships have always been run, this is how the US is run now.
18
The next move by the DJT admin will be this:
"Obama holdovers in Fed try to destroy the president by causing hyper-inflation like under (booooohh... hissss....) Carter"
Of course that's nonsense, but the "deplorables" will lick it up, just as they have with any other nonsense coming out to the WH these days. Cameras in microwave ovens, eh? Fascinating! Especially because one has to assume that matters of live and death (and even national security) would be discussed in the kitchenette in Trump Tower and not the Situation Room in the WH. Well, given what we've seen so far... hmmm... not totally out of the realm of possibilities...
"Obama holdovers in Fed try to destroy the president by causing hyper-inflation like under (booooohh... hissss....) Carter"
Of course that's nonsense, but the "deplorables" will lick it up, just as they have with any other nonsense coming out to the WH these days. Cameras in microwave ovens, eh? Fascinating! Especially because one has to assume that matters of live and death (and even national security) would be discussed in the kitchenette in Trump Tower and not the Situation Room in the WH. Well, given what we've seen so far... hmmm... not totally out of the realm of possibilities...
7
Janet Louise Yellen is the Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, previously serving as Vice Chair from 2010 to 2014. Before that, she was President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, and business professor at the University of California, Berkeley, Haas School of Business, twice being awarded the school's outstanding teaching award..
Donald Trump is a born-rich-and-connected real estate mogul with a history of lying, fraud, and six-time bankrupt failure, who never reads, refuses to release his income tax returns, and was elected by a minority with an assist from Vladimir Putin.
Who you gonna believe?
Donald Trump is a born-rich-and-connected real estate mogul with a history of lying, fraud, and six-time bankrupt failure, who never reads, refuses to release his income tax returns, and was elected by a minority with an assist from Vladimir Putin.
Who you gonna believe?
54
If Trump wants faster growth he should consider the impacts of sharply limiting immigration in a rapidly aging society. It is only common sense that these two things are related.
19
Yes! I have been thinking a lot about this.
2
You want faster growth Donald? Keep your campaign promise: “I will be the greatest jobs producer that God ever created.” Forget tax cuts. That only benefits the wealthy and the bang for the buck is quite low. Spend directly (multiplier effect on GDP is ~1.5) on hiring workers to rebuild the decaying infrastructure in this country that was largely built during my parent’s generation.
41
Trump once wanted faster "growth" in his profits in Atlantic City.
What he got instead was bankruptcy and bailouts by fools who continued to buy into the ludicrous notion that an association with Trump would make them money.
Past is prologue.
When this house of cards collapses, it's going to bring down a lot of Republicans who refused to learn one of the obvious lessons of the Bush 43 presidency.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs go broke. Which animal do you think Trump is?
What he got instead was bankruptcy and bailouts by fools who continued to buy into the ludicrous notion that an association with Trump would make them money.
Past is prologue.
When this house of cards collapses, it's going to bring down a lot of Republicans who refused to learn one of the obvious lessons of the Bush 43 presidency.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs go broke. Which animal do you think Trump is?
27
I hate to compare trump and the rest of the greedy, corrupt, heartless, lying republicans to "animals." Animals are innocent. We must call this administration and most of congress what they REALLY are: Morally and spiritually decayed MONSTERS. (Although your analogy is absolutely correct--spot on! But pigs are much, MUCH nicer than trump and his republican thugs.) These people are already "broke;" they are morally bankrupt, possessing NO character, NO integrity, and NO decency.
8
It is the job of the Fed to take away the punch bowl just when the working class arrives at the party.
While higher interest rates would be helpful to retirees in the middle class, inflation from rapid growth would negate the benefits. The Fed seems to have it right, keeping growth sustainable and inflation low. We're enjoying one of the longest periods of expansion despite the fact that wages are just beginning to join in the boom. Mr. Trump is not an economist. He needs to heed the Fed or we will suffer another huge recession.
9
You think inflation is low? You have no memory.
Compare the price of a gallon of milk, or a new car, or a new house, with what it was 8 years ago. Then tell us all how low inflation is.
Compare the price of a gallon of milk, or a new car, or a new house, with what it was 8 years ago. Then tell us all how low inflation is.
Once again, facts collide with the Trump agenda. In this case, we have to remind the right that the economy has been growing just fine for the past several years, in spite of the alternative reality Fox News has been selling you.
18
This is the first time in the history of this nation that we have had 8 consecutive years with the economic growth always below 2%.
That's just fine with you?
That's just fine with you?
1
Diog,
You'd also have to add to your analysis a Global Multi-Trillion $$ collapse.
Or is several Trillion not enough for you?
You'd also have to add to your analysis a Global Multi-Trillion $$ collapse.
Or is several Trillion not enough for you?
2
Trump doesn't want faster growth or anything else for that matter as much as credit for something, anything that can alloy him to proclaim how great he is.
12
Mr. Trump will have no better luck stopping the business cycle than anyone else. The next recession is only a matter of time but nothing is being done to prepare for it. Given the cycle's historical pattern the only question is will it come before or after the next congressional election. There are many reasons to believe that current economic policies will enlarge or create numerous financial bubbles making matters worse. Keeping interest rates low will hinder the government's ability to address the next fiscal crises. The resulting recession will be as bad or even worse than the last. The republicans will own it and the voters will respond as they have during any other economic down turn and vote the bums out. Let's hope the Democrats are ready.
8
Trump will bring about the next recession by unleashing Wall Street from the sensible regulations put in place after the last Republican recession.
4
Reminds me when I told (asked) me Mom's,
"Momma, I want a Sega Genesis."
Her Answer, "Well I spoke to a Sega Genesis and they can't afford you. So you're stuck with me."
Yes, her humor was as real as it was biting.
"Momma, I want a Sega Genesis."
Her Answer, "Well I spoke to a Sega Genesis and they can't afford you. So you're stuck with me."
Yes, her humor was as real as it was biting.
7
I do not think the Trump data base includes an understanding of Economics leave alone the subtle connections of economic metrics to the overall economy. He and his supporters live in ignorance and believe only in shooting from the hip.
15
Old fashioned people saved their money.
They looked forward to adding to their savings.
The Fed kept interest rates at close to zero percent to so that banks had no cost to make loans and help the economy.
The last 8 years was nothing other than the plundering of peoples savings to help Obama and the Democrats keep the economy afloat.
The savers are so happy.
The Progressive spendthrifts could care less.
They looked forward to adding to their savings.
The Fed kept interest rates at close to zero percent to so that banks had no cost to make loans and help the economy.
The last 8 years was nothing other than the plundering of peoples savings to help Obama and the Democrats keep the economy afloat.
The savers are so happy.
The Progressive spendthrifts could care less.
2
How did people "Lose" their savings for 8yrs?
But specifically how is the blame reserved for Obama and Democrats?
You mean the GOP couldn't fit the issue into even one of their 794 Ben Ghazi Hearings?
But specifically how is the blame reserved for Obama and Democrats?
You mean the GOP couldn't fit the issue into even one of their 794 Ben Ghazi Hearings?
11
Yes, conveniently forget that Obama brought us back from the brink of depression, brought on by Republican policies and lack of regulation.
Conveniently forget that while cheering on Trump's removal of the regulations that were put in place after that debacle to protect us from a repeat.
Conveniently forget that you and the Republicans know nothing about economics.
Conveniently forget that while cheering on Trump's removal of the regulations that were put in place after that debacle to protect us from a repeat.
Conveniently forget that you and the Republicans know nothing about economics.
7
Because Obama kept the interest rate the Fed had to pay to borrow money, which he never stopped doing, at virtually zero. This allows economists like Paul Krugman say there is no inflation, because the Fed can borrow and borrow for free.
It paid for it by taking all the interest on the money people had saved to live on. They were ruined, of course, but they could go on food stamps, which was another of Obama's intentions.
It paid for it by taking all the interest on the money people had saved to live on. They were ruined, of course, but they could go on food stamps, which was another of Obama's intentions.
Hmmmmm? Janet Yellen, or Donald Trump? One of them knows what they're doing. The other - not so much. My money's on Yellen.
38
If the economy overheats, inflation will follow. One result will be inflation in real-estate prices. Does that sound like something President Trump might be interested in encouraging?
16
except no can borrow if interest rates track inflation
No regular people can borrow. The billionaires still can or won't need to borrow to reap the profits.
> put the ecomony second to maintaining and honoring the Bill of Rights
Religion and its Mr. Hyde side, modernism, are false. Man is not split between a bubblehead and a chunk of meat. Man is an integrated unity of mind and body. Man has the mind-based right to property, production, trade and the pursuit of profit just as much as the right to freedom of speech, press, etc. Man is not a floating spirit. Man needs material values for his life. Man needs govt to protect his mind's guidance of action.
Religion and its Mr. Hyde side, modernism, are false. Man is not split between a bubblehead and a chunk of meat. Man is an integrated unity of mind and body. Man has the mind-based right to property, production, trade and the pursuit of profit just as much as the right to freedom of speech, press, etc. Man is not a floating spirit. Man needs material values for his life. Man needs govt to protect his mind's guidance of action.
I don't and you shouldn't believe a word the Lying Birther & Wiretapper has said or says until he has proven his trustworthiness.
We lose our democracy when an outright liar is given a pass on his lying to the american people.
We lose our democracy when an outright liar is given a pass on his lying to the american people.
10
He, 45, will just fire Yellen, and install some lackey who will do whatever the so called "president" wants.
10
Since the GW Bush prosperity of 2008, the economy has been going along at a nice steady pace until now it's looking about as good as I can remember, probably as good as it was when good old GW took over and fixed corrected all the success the Clinton years had produced. No, we have the Trump gang promising to correct things.
Hey, all you Republicans. IT AIN'T BROKE! YOU DON'T HAVE TO FIX IT!
Hey, all you Republicans. IT AIN'T BROKE! YOU DON'T HAVE TO FIX IT!
15
8 consecutive years below 2% economic growth, the only time that has happened in the history of this country, and YOU DON"T WANT TO FIX IT!
1
When was the last time a republican administration delivered 8 consecutive years of growth??
1
Candidate Trump's cache was built by espousing bumper sticker euphemisms. Simple statements allowing listeners to imprint their own values as to what they thought Trump was actually saying. Nary a detail was given by Trump to enlighten the actual strategies by which he would accomplish his goals.
Remember his promised ISIS strategy? Or his late-night phone call to Mike Flynn to ask if a strong dollar or a weak dollar is better for the U.S. economy.
His one attempt with details was his hastily written sorely lacking Muslim ban which didn't pass muster.
And this week Trump is turning to fiscal policy.
On the campaign trail Donald Trump repeatedly bashed Fed chair Janet Yellen for keeping rates too low, complaining she wasn't raising rates in order to try and boost the market for President Obama and Hillary Clinton.
But now Trump considers last week's strong jobs numbers a reflection on his presidency and therefore "legitimate" (when same strong numbers under Obama were not legitimate).
So which is it Donald? Better the Fed raise (normalize) the rate because the economy is booming? Or keep the rates low to spur faster growth? Maybe time to tap Flynn for more economic advice?
Remember his promised ISIS strategy? Or his late-night phone call to Mike Flynn to ask if a strong dollar or a weak dollar is better for the U.S. economy.
His one attempt with details was his hastily written sorely lacking Muslim ban which didn't pass muster.
And this week Trump is turning to fiscal policy.
On the campaign trail Donald Trump repeatedly bashed Fed chair Janet Yellen for keeping rates too low, complaining she wasn't raising rates in order to try and boost the market for President Obama and Hillary Clinton.
But now Trump considers last week's strong jobs numbers a reflection on his presidency and therefore "legitimate" (when same strong numbers under Obama were not legitimate).
So which is it Donald? Better the Fed raise (normalize) the rate because the economy is booming? Or keep the rates low to spur faster growth? Maybe time to tap Flynn for more economic advice?
15
Trump's aggressive ignorance vs people who know something. Same old pattern. Demagogue vs those with experience and knowledge. He will blame Fed for "deep government" put in place in secret by Obama to wreck his agenda to "save" America.
25
Perhaps the people in the White House just want to make as much money for themselves and their friends before the gravy train jumps the tracks!
10
Trump wants to goose the economy as much as possible going into the 2018 elections. Never mind that his plans will ultimately cause a huge crash. He doesn't care if the boost continues any longer than 2020, in fact, a crash would be great after his re-election so he can pick up some nice properties at bargain basement prices.
4
Not before they convert that train to run on coal.
2
The place that Mr. Trump promised growth in the economy is the one place where it isn't happening. "Labor force participation is low. Productivity growth remains weak. Middle-income families have seen little income growth." The larger fraction of the growth is in corporate profits. Moreover, the low rates are stimulating borrowing to an unhealthy level; consumer debt is at levels predicted to pass the astronomical heights just preceding the Great Recession.
Growth for growths sake without helping the middle class serves the two purposes of satisfying Donald Trump's campaign promise and providing numbers for theoretical economic models that justify lower tax rates for the rich.
Growth for growths sake without helping the middle class serves the two purposes of satisfying Donald Trump's campaign promise and providing numbers for theoretical economic models that justify lower tax rates for the rich.
42
The most important economic policy that Trump could make is to raise the minimum wage which would help to narrow the wealth gap. Then he could use his 'legendary' negotiation skills to sell the idea to business. The growth of company bottom-lines would more than offset this fiscal policy. The increase in the tax base and shrinking social welfare would bring the US deficit down.
His supporters would benefit hugely. But would he do it, I wouldn't bet my bottom dollar on it. He has never shown any skill at making sound business decisions. He is just the front man.
His supporters would benefit hugely. But would he do it, I wouldn't bet my bottom dollar on it. He has never shown any skill at making sound business decisions. He is just the front man.
3
While the comparisons between the two economies seem weak, I worked in a country, Ireland, that foresaw no consequence to the irresponsible growth resulting from the Celtic Tiger. The government loved it will it roared, the public optimism became endemic. Growth seemed good, until it all came tumbling down in 2010. The public price paid there went well beyond the headlines about failed banks and the collapsed housing sector, with impacts to all of parts of civilized society, even simple functions of government seemed paralyzed.
At some point this president will awaken to the simple point that running the world’s largest economy isn’t the same as running a real estate branding business. What outcome will his desired growth achieve? National economies work in cycles, and the Fed, and its Chair, know only too well, both how and when to exercise a tool of monetary policy.
At some point this president will awaken to the simple point that running the world’s largest economy isn’t the same as running a real estate branding business. What outcome will his desired growth achieve? National economies work in cycles, and the Fed, and its Chair, know only too well, both how and when to exercise a tool of monetary policy.
6
" At some point the President will awaken..." seems a tad optimistic. Why should he? He is doing great as far as he is concerned, and his concerns are the only things that count.
The train can leave the tracks, careen through an elementary school, through a busy intersection and into an oil tank farm and he'll still say we are doing "Greatly". Reality is of no concern to him and his Merry Band of Incompetents.
We are in for a very bumpy ride.
The train can leave the tracks, careen through an elementary school, through a busy intersection and into an oil tank farm and he'll still say we are doing "Greatly". Reality is of no concern to him and his Merry Band of Incompetents.
We are in for a very bumpy ride.
7
Iceland is another example of an economy that went bust. Handing over banking interests to the private sector was a bad move. Doubt that this administration looks at comparative economic history or even thinks about policy. Who knew the world economy was so complicated?
4
the President will find someone to blame
4
The Fed and the President can differ on economic outlook as well as what to do about a forested future. No problem there. I just hope that the Trump administration does not try to pressure the Fed in any way. Because such pressure sure seems to be a tactic that they like to use.
Please don't let that fool, with 4 bankruptcies and a trail of cheated contractors and shareholders, manage our economy!!!!
19
This is still Barack Obama's economy.
Barack and Michelle Obama were busy paying off their student loans while Trump was bankrupting his casinos and cheating his shareholders.
Many thanks to President Obama for his steady hand turning the economy around for 8 years.
I fear what Trump is going to do.
Barack and Michelle Obama were busy paying off their student loans while Trump was bankrupting his casinos and cheating his shareholders.
Many thanks to President Obama for his steady hand turning the economy around for 8 years.
I fear what Trump is going to do.
30
Another Republican who promotes spend spend spend for vain glory and pay back. After every GOP administration our Treasury, and hence, economy, is left stripped and wounded. The big myth is tax and spend Dems. The facts show otherwise. The GOP hands off our money to Corporate titans and large donors aka 'the wealth bubble'.
Watch and see ~ this time is no different.
Watch and see ~ this time is no different.
11
Had the Fed increased rates when it should have, and had President Obama let wrongdoing businesses fail during the Great Recession, we might not have the current push and pull between inflation and growth that we are soon to experience.
2
Whether interest rates are low or high...there will always be winners and losers. For a long time, the losers have been the savers. While I am a middle class retiree, and I want to see the interest rates go back up, I feel for those who will suffer when they do.
2
I agree. But I think what we are soon to experience is going to be far worse than economics as usual. Rates have been kept artificially low for far too long. This will be a reckoning of epic proportions, underscored by the lack of productivity that is a reflection of artificially keeping the economy afloat. We need to take "too big to fail" and the quick fix out of our vocabulary.
1
As usual, the understanding of what the Federal Reserve has accomplished since 2009 is wrong; the zero bound Fed along with the printing of money has done nothing but allow the buyback of a company's own stock and the enrichment of the so-called 1%. True market price discovery doesn't exist anymore. Until it does we will have an irrationally elevated stock market (mostly by purchasing ETF's) and machine-programmed trading which will lead to a very uncomfortable correction at some point.
1
Trump tried to take credit for good job growth. Will he also take the blame for impending inflation and a rise in interest fees consumers will have to pay on their credit?
8
I think we should put the ecomony second to maintaining and honoring the Bill of Rights, don't you? For once, I couldn't care less about the Fed raising rates, infrastructure spending, and the like.
I just read a disturbing piece in Mother Jones that states Steve Bannon has surreptitiously appointed several white supremacists to the security council. I also read that immigration is planning to separate illegal parents from their children, and have loosened the regulations for hiring border patrol workers, some with ties to organized crime. These are horrifying developments.
I just read a disturbing piece in Mother Jones that states Steve Bannon has surreptitiously appointed several white supremacists to the security council. I also read that immigration is planning to separate illegal parents from their children, and have loosened the regulations for hiring border patrol workers, some with ties to organized crime. These are horrifying developments.
12
The Federal Reserve hardly knows what a maximum sustainable rate of growth even looks like. Neither do academic economists--and what is an economist, exactly? In our discussions of monetary policy we throw around vague words --like, building steam--or we talk about rates, but which rates? The discount rate; the funds rate; the overnight rate; the prime rate; the inter-bank rate? Few if any of them have anything to do with economic growth, but even in that regard, what growth are we talking about? If one is asking about loan growth, that is more a function of bank policy than interest rates. If one is talking about the growth of demand deposits in banks, now that means something, as it is the basis itself of lending, credit, reserves and growth. For the last decade and more, real interest rates have been negative; that is, after your 1 percent interest payment less taxes and inflation, you are left with less than zero. If the Fed set rates to encourage saving, that would be meaningful. Raising relative rates by a mere percent or two is effectively meaningless, except that it raises government interest costs on its multiple trillions in outstanding debt--which it may never repay. The Fed is in business to fund government expenditures in perpetuity, and right now that means the Global War on Terror--6 trillion and counting. That leaves the Treasury. What is its role?
15
I am surprised that this was recommended. You seem to miss the fact that the Fed really has little other power than raising or lowering rates to steer the economy.
4
I'm taken aback by your claim that economists, including those at the Fed, don't know anything about sustainable growth rates, the difference between rates. But you somehow think that the ignorant real estate cheat and con artist in the White House *does* know what's sustainable growth, and how to achieve it?
You know that his strategy is always to over leverage other people's money, lie about the prospective return, suck out management fees, then walk away while his partners lose their shirts, don't you? Do you really believe that's an effective strategy for running the largest economy in the world?
You know that his strategy is always to over leverage other people's money, lie about the prospective return, suck out management fees, then walk away while his partners lose their shirts, don't you? Do you really believe that's an effective strategy for running the largest economy in the world?
9
How did this get promoted? Growth in the sense of the article is generally understood to be positive in real GDP. That's pretty much understood. As for the rates - they specify which rates, article by article, point by point.
1
I'm sorry, I have little faith in the Fed Reserve. If they were effective, how come over the years we've had many so recessions that they did not foresee, including the recent deep one? They are not forward looking; they are backward looking, depending on stats that are behind rather on current stats because the stats are backward looking, not even current.
1
DT and his cohorts seem to be forgetting the meltdown of 2008 which drive the Trump Entertainment Resorts into bankruptcy: "those who do not learn from history doom to relive it" can happen even to a con man.
11
Growth, for the sake of growth w/o addressing stability sounds desperate and uninformed,.., like a person ignoring the side effects of Viagra,...because they (REALLY?) believe 4+hrs in that state is a Good thing:)
4
Trump and today's GOP do not understand that true power in democracies comes from some measure of formal restraint. Working with the opposition, making political appointments based on expertise or experience, and making policies under legal constraints all impart political and moral legitimacy in unforgiving political environments. Keeping Janet Yellen and Preet Bharara seem especially obvious examples of political wisdom. Both are doing their jobs that require both expertise and experience at the highest level possible. While firing them might earn some enthusiasm from your political base for a day or two, you have taken two well-working and important offices of the government and risked dysfunction and failure. This is yet another example of Team Trump's failure to understand the most basic tenets of American politics: don't go out of your way to break things that aren't broken.
4
"Trump Wants Faster Growth"?
What other viewpoint would we expect from an utter financial ignoramus, who racks up "yooge" debts on all his businesses, and then uses bankruptcy, legal tricks, and simple refusal to honor obligations to wriggle away?
And of course he's taking no no advice from the Fed or any real economist! Just fellow scamsters like Manuchin and Lil. Jarred.
Boom and Bust! That's all Trumpo knows!
What other viewpoint would we expect from an utter financial ignoramus, who racks up "yooge" debts on all his businesses, and then uses bankruptcy, legal tricks, and simple refusal to honor obligations to wriggle away?
And of course he's taking no no advice from the Fed or any real economist! Just fellow scamsters like Manuchin and Lil. Jarred.
Boom and Bust! That's all Trumpo knows!
5
So who is in charge of the economy, an elected President or an unelected banker?
I'll go with the banker. She's more honest, knowledgable and trustworthy.
10
Try casting that a little differently; who's in charge of the economy, an educated, experienced, level headed chairperson of the Fed, or an ignorant, shallow, thin skinned, lying demagogue, who has no ideas and no motivations, except for continued unearned public praise and the enrichment of himself, his family, and his cronies?
6
> in charge of the economy
Your rationalization of slavery is noted.
Your rationalization of slavery is noted.
1
Economic growth is the only proven way to fund a ever growing federal government and to provide the tax money required to meet the entitlement payments that have created our $20 trillion federal debt. Growth has been essentially flat under the Obama administration. The Fed has shot all of their arrows by reducing interest rates to near zero. The only avenue left is to lower corporate taxes and provide incentives for corporations to bring industry and jobs back for overseas. Absent that, the debt will continue to grow while the economy will continue to stagnate. There are no other alternatives; remember, the top 10% of earners already provide nearly 80% of all federal and state income tax revenues. Taxing them further will not make a dent in the problems this nation faces economically.
1
The economy is doing well. The stock market is at a high, corporate profits are at a high, even wages are beginning to tick up. The economy is cyclic by natural laws. Trumps got a problem in that the rust belt is still hurting with the economy firing on all cylinders. If he pushes to much public spending he risks stagflation. In three years if the economy is not in its current state he will be blamed for braking it. Given the cyclic nature of the economy thats likely. If he over inflates it now it will be even more broken in four years.
7
So finally someone sent in the Feds... And it is not Trump.
3
“The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas recently reported that Texas employment in residential construction had nearly reached the level seen before the 2008 financial crisis…..”
Here in Atlanta it’s quite similar to Texas. Construction of apartments and condominiums are booming, and very reminiscent of the housing boom before 2008.
In the long run the Fed and Yellen will win out. For the President to even consider firing Janet Yellen would be disastrous for the country’s financial system. What it would say is, the Executive Branch does not have confidence in the Federal Reserve and we now are entrusting our financial acumen to a bunch of inexperienced nationalists who have a no experience in any aspect of “real” finance other than how file for bankruptcy!
Here in Atlanta it’s quite similar to Texas. Construction of apartments and condominiums are booming, and very reminiscent of the housing boom before 2008.
In the long run the Fed and Yellen will win out. For the President to even consider firing Janet Yellen would be disastrous for the country’s financial system. What it would say is, the Executive Branch does not have confidence in the Federal Reserve and we now are entrusting our financial acumen to a bunch of inexperienced nationalists who have a no experience in any aspect of “real” finance other than how file for bankruptcy!
12
Trump was born in the winning locker room of World Series champions and thinks he's the team MVP.
He has no idea about anything except trying desperately to Make Trump Great Again.
The Federal Reserve is one of the few governmental barricades against Trumponomic insanity, 0.1% tax-cut rainbows, right-wing deregulatory anarchy and Republican economic mayhem.
Janet Yellin is an intelligent voice of reason resisting tyrannical Trump treason.
He has no idea about anything except trying desperately to Make Trump Great Again.
The Federal Reserve is one of the few governmental barricades against Trumponomic insanity, 0.1% tax-cut rainbows, right-wing deregulatory anarchy and Republican economic mayhem.
Janet Yellin is an intelligent voice of reason resisting tyrannical Trump treason.
15
Traditional retail in trouble. Consumers being urged to spend and borrow more money. Housing prices in hot areas way above assessments. New-fangled mortgage lenders giving loans to most anyone, and not restrained by "burdensome" regulations because they are not banks. Cars and trucks with seven-year notes and no money down. Student debt and national debt...DOW still going wild.
What could POSSIBLY go wrong?
Growth for the sake of growth, to paraphrase the late Edward Abbey, is the ideology of a cancer cell. And in this case, the prescription for an economic collapse. Just wait for it, then the soup-lines near every cardboard-box Trumptown in the land.
It's time for a new way of doing things.
What could POSSIBLY go wrong?
Growth for the sake of growth, to paraphrase the late Edward Abbey, is the ideology of a cancer cell. And in this case, the prescription for an economic collapse. Just wait for it, then the soup-lines near every cardboard-box Trumptown in the land.
It's time for a new way of doing things.
12
Which is...? Like democracy is to politics, capitalism is the worst of economic systems except in comparison to the other options.
1
Maybe try using our military to actually protect us rather than inflame more animosity in those who actually never attacked us. Maybe giving our citizens healthcare they can afford and affordable education. Instead of deconstructing other governments i.e. Iraq, before deconstructing our own. A little sharing goes a long way.
Louis, I'm thinking Capitalism + sustainability, such as putting long-term population stability, climate stability, and renewable energy ahead of the Holy Bottom Line.
But that would take long-term vision, which US Capitalism lacks.
But that would take long-term vision, which US Capitalism lacks.
1
You posit a false dichotomy. An economy is a complex organism with no simple cause-and-effect processes. I wrote my PhD dissertation on the effects of tax cuts and increases on personal savings and spending over the 25-year period 1959-1983. My conclusion, widely accepted even then, was that there ain't no simple ways to affect aggregate savings and spending. So too with growth. I support policies to stimulate growth, but I also support the Fed increasing interest rates. Yes, increasing interest rates tend to stimulate inflation, but they also tend to increase profits and income.
1
This is just going to make the banks richer. We can not sustain an economy whose biggest sector is financial services. People who actually produce nothing and just move numbers around and skim off the top. While I despise and revile POTUS for just about everything, he is right in that we need an economy that has more production and not just math.
5
As we all know now with absolute certainty, Trump is the ONLY person alive who is an expert in every field, including Fed policy. Any individual who or group which disagrees with him are absolutely bad and sick people trying to make him look weak and ineffective. One can only imagine the 3 AM disparaging tweet being composed in the brain of Donald The Menace about Janet Yellen being the worst Fed chairperson EVER and claim that she isof a very bad lady trying to discredit him and harm his constituents in the process. Sigh. Sad. Predictable. Unhinged. Unfit.
9
"For President Trump and his economic advisers, the strong February jobs report was a cause for celebration — and a first step toward delivering on the president’s promise of faster economic growth." PROBLEM: February's job report from the BLS is due to President Obama, not the current administration. The numbers displayed for the last three years show close employment #s for February.
Want faster growth? Bring back the dt/daughter regime's brands and have them manufactured in the US. Stop using Chinese steel. Give people who work for the regime a living wage and show us any plan for growth where crony capitalism isn't in play. But, nah, that would be expecting too much.
Want faster growth? Bring back the dt/daughter regime's brands and have them manufactured in the US. Stop using Chinese steel. Give people who work for the regime a living wage and show us any plan for growth where crony capitalism isn't in play. But, nah, that would be expecting too much.
6
The economy has recovered and the U.S. is almost at full employment, so of course now the Republicans suddenly think a trillion dollar infrastructure stimulus package is a good idea. Where were they when interest rates were zero and people were desperately looking for work? Oh, yeah - thwarting Obama's stimulus package.
29
Binyamin - surely you know that the idea of low unemployment stimulating to much inflation is highly debatable; many mainstream economists think that NAIRU is unmeasurable (if it even exists) and that , say, B Delong thinks we still have lots of slack in the economy
So a better headline would be, the liar trump says he wants faster growth; Fed Reserve sticks to quasi old line mainstream GOP policy of putting inflation ahead of jobs
So a better headline would be, the liar trump says he wants faster growth; Fed Reserve sticks to quasi old line mainstream GOP policy of putting inflation ahead of jobs
You need something like the subprimes of GWBush. But since consumers are to depressed even for subprimes, what about replacing taxes by tolls for infrastructure, payable in arrears, and five times the amount of a tax. People will have a lot of money, and are unaware that they are fleeced by big cooperations.
2
If Trump wants greater growth and the existing economy is not ready to create a lot of new wealth quickly, then any monetary policies will not help. The interest rates are too low and printing a lot of money is just going to generate inflation. Banks and financial institutions are lending and offering capital about as greatly as their is the need. So how is he going to make the economy grow faster? If private corporations take on a lot of new workers and produce like mad, they will only build inventories because there are no more consumers to buy more. Build infrastructure, a lot of it, and it will produce a great increase in the economy in about two years which might last for ten years but without a lot of new market demand to support continued growth it will not last beyond that point. The infrastructure investment must be carefully made to fit with what will be most advantageous to have in ten years. Restore what is going to go away, and the money and effort will be wasted. So what kind of infrastructure will serve the needs of the U.S. in twenty years? Just wanting is not enough, one needs a clear of idea of what will be needed (Trump's favorite Rolling Stones' song refrain).
6
just one of a myriad of examples how dt clearly doesn't understand the ripple effect of his edicts. Who considers this man intelligent????? his most salient skills are manipulation and lying
6
People who put up a 98-story building, for example, normally prefer not to describe the city around it as some kind of free-fire zone.
For the last 8 years, liberal economists like P Krugman have been begging for the Fed Gov't (not the Fed) to stimulate the economy
As I read Krugman, he is begging for massive, deficit fueled gov't spending
Now, Trump promises to do that and liberals don't like it ?
Am I missing something ?
As I read Krugman, he is begging for massive, deficit fueled gov't spending
Now, Trump promises to do that and liberals don't like it ?
Am I missing something ?
3
Well Trump is proposing massive spending AND tax cuts at the same time which will make past increases to the debt seem like chump change.
17
Sorry: actually, yes, you are missing something. :)
Liberals wanted and want an increase in the gasoline tax (not raised in many years even to keep up with inflation), understood and understand that public financing would be extraordinarily cheap due to low interest rates, and wanted to get people back to work. Liberals also understood and understand that the externalities of bad infrastructure (everything from potholes to pollution to slow internet) are costs we all bear whether it's part of the deficit or our personal spending. (When you have to fix your car because of roads in disrepair, that's a real cost that's "external" to the government deficit.)
Trump will probably get more support from liberals on infrastructure than on anything else, if he makes it something for the public good rather than a sweet deal for private companies to get rich.
Liberals wanted and want an increase in the gasoline tax (not raised in many years even to keep up with inflation), understood and understand that public financing would be extraordinarily cheap due to low interest rates, and wanted to get people back to work. Liberals also understood and understand that the externalities of bad infrastructure (everything from potholes to pollution to slow internet) are costs we all bear whether it's part of the deficit or our personal spending. (When you have to fix your car because of roads in disrepair, that's a real cost that's "external" to the government deficit.)
Trump will probably get more support from liberals on infrastructure than on anything else, if he makes it something for the public good rather than a sweet deal for private companies to get rich.
5
You don't need to water your garden when it's raining. Now that the data suggests we are approaching full employment adding more jobs through government spending or general stimulus isn't as critical. There is still a problem with underemployment and stagnant middle-class wages so things aren't perfect, but the economy is no longer in recovery mode as it was during Obama's presidency.
Ms. Yellen: Please don't be cowed by Trump's bluster and boil. Do what you think is best for the country. He doesn't know jack about it. Moreover, he doesn't care.
38
Just when economic pressure builds to increase the salaries of your average citizen, the Fed puts on the brakes to prevent it. Increased salaries for the masses of Americans is deemed to be inflation.
Meanwhile, housing prices, the cost of college and everything else skyrockets fueled by unsustainable debt that enriches the banking class until the debt collapses and a bail out is required.
Repeat every ten years or sooner as necessary.
Meanwhile, housing prices, the cost of college and everything else skyrockets fueled by unsustainable debt that enriches the banking class until the debt collapses and a bail out is required.
Repeat every ten years or sooner as necessary.
5
From the Washington Post:
Trump on Aug. 9:
"If rates go up, you’re going to see something that’s not pretty. It’s all a big bubble."
Trump on Sep. 5:
"We have a very false economy. … The only thing that is strong is the artificial stock market."
Trump on Sep. 26:
"We are in a big, fat, ugly bubble. … The only thing that looks good is the stock market. But if you raise interest rates even a little bit, that’s going to come crashing down."
I understand that circumstances and situations change, but consistency in reasoning, thought and justification would be nice. That one can go from "a big, fat, ugly bubble" throughout the campaign season to a run of growth in the "artificial" stock market--a Trump bubble bump, if you will--to calls for a raise in rates would be a remarkable about face for anyone else. I would love to see just a single reporter press him on some technical details in his purported area of expertise. He truly believes that he is Midas.
Trump on Aug. 9:
"If rates go up, you’re going to see something that’s not pretty. It’s all a big bubble."
Trump on Sep. 5:
"We have a very false economy. … The only thing that is strong is the artificial stock market."
Trump on Sep. 26:
"We are in a big, fat, ugly bubble. … The only thing that looks good is the stock market. But if you raise interest rates even a little bit, that’s going to come crashing down."
I understand that circumstances and situations change, but consistency in reasoning, thought and justification would be nice. That one can go from "a big, fat, ugly bubble" throughout the campaign season to a run of growth in the "artificial" stock market--a Trump bubble bump, if you will--to calls for a raise in rates would be a remarkable about face for anyone else. I would love to see just a single reporter press him on some technical details in his purported area of expertise. He truly believes that he is Midas.
8
easy money and the rise of the stock market....really, think about the loans used to fuel rise in the market, with very little interest....we will see...
3
Trump and his cabal figure if we artificially stimulate the economy with artificial money, the people will ignore their criminal activities until the crash comes... Then the next administration will step in, and "for the good of the country", look to the future and let them all get away with it... Kinda like Bush and Cheney and clan on steroids...
4
"The White House and the Fed have very different economic outlooks."
right. one is based on actual knowledge and the other is faith based and is meant to keep the already brainwashed under his control. oh, by the way? climate change is a hoax created by the chinese.....
right. one is based on actual knowledge and the other is faith based and is meant to keep the already brainwashed under his control. oh, by the way? climate change is a hoax created by the chinese.....
6
The country needs faster growth to increase tax revenues, to pay for the infrastructure upgrades. It also needs low inflation to keep the government's borrowing rates down, again to pay for the infrastructure upgrades. It's almost impossible to get both at the same time.
26
You do realize that the President plans to dramatically slash tax revenues with nearly all benefit going to millionaires and billionaires? The infrastructure upgrades - which the President hopes to privatize - will be paid for by Americans who use the roads, with much of that money going into the pockets of the privateers that built them. This economic practice is in line with Speaker Ryan's plan to have penalties, incurred by those whose health insurance has lapsed for several months or more, to go into the pockets of private insurers, not the government.
More tax revenue needed!? Ever heard of the luxury tax on billionaire's toys? Ever heard a a tax on stock trades? (there isn't one of those) Define a regressive tax. Ever heard of Leona Helmsley or more accurately her famous comment about taxes??
The wrong choices in infrastructure upgrades can easily end up in a beautiful highway to nowhere... like the one that deposited me in the middle of West Virginia with many a mountain to cross before I got back to the Penn Turnpike. And PS Infrastructure i much more than highways. I am looking forward to the google car.
The wrong choices in infrastructure upgrades can easily end up in a beautiful highway to nowhere... like the one that deposited me in the middle of West Virginia with many a mountain to cross before I got back to the Penn Turnpike. And PS Infrastructure i much more than highways. I am looking forward to the google car.
NOT ALMOST....more like, definitely not.
The Fed works on facts, Trump works on smoke and mirrors. There is at least one bastion of this country that Trump can't manipulate or fill with his slackies. I can't wait for the clash to begin!
3
If you read P Krugman or B DeLong, you would not say that "The Fed works on facts"
in fact, the Fed seems heavily biased to a pro GOP policy of restraining inflation in place of good job growth
in fact, the Fed seems heavily biased to a pro GOP policy of restraining inflation in place of good job growth
We are doomed. This is a repeat of Greenspan raising rates during Bush's second term. It led to the recession when interest rates spiked and gas went over $4/gallon. Disposable income sank. Note to Fed: Our healthcare insurance is about to blow up. Keep rates low, or this will be worse than the great depression. Families will have to choose between health insurance and everything else. New cars, new housing, will be unattainable because of our insurance premiums.
2
The GOP can’t govern “For the People”.
McConnell said Republicans were not enthusiastic about President Obama's Cabinet picks in 2009 "but we did not prevent him from getting up and functioning." [ The Hill 2-1-2017]
History will show these men destroyed the democracy of America.
At a Republican retreat, at the Library of Congress, right before Obama’s 2009 inauguration, Mitch McConnell said:
“there are enough of us to block the Democratic agenda-as long as they all marched in lockstep.”
“As long as Republicans refused to follow his (President Obama’s) lead, Americans would see partisan food fights and conclude that Obama had failed to produce change.”
January 20, 2009 Republican Leaders in Congress literally plotted to sabotage and undermine U.S. Economy during President Obama's Inauguration. In Robert Draper's book, "Do Not Ask What Good We Do: Inside the U.S. House of Representatives" Draper wrote that during a four hour, "invitation only" meeting with GOP Hate-Propaganda Minister, Frank Luntz, 12 Senior GOP Law Writers & Newt Gingrich literally plotted to sabotage, undermine and destroy America's Economy.
During the four hour meeting:
The senior GOP members plotted to bring Congress to a standstill regardless how much it would hurt the American Economy by pledging to obstruct and block President Obama on all legislation.
McConnell said Republicans were not enthusiastic about President Obama's Cabinet picks in 2009 "but we did not prevent him from getting up and functioning." [ The Hill 2-1-2017]
History will show these men destroyed the democracy of America.
At a Republican retreat, at the Library of Congress, right before Obama’s 2009 inauguration, Mitch McConnell said:
“there are enough of us to block the Democratic agenda-as long as they all marched in lockstep.”
“As long as Republicans refused to follow his (President Obama’s) lead, Americans would see partisan food fights and conclude that Obama had failed to produce change.”
January 20, 2009 Republican Leaders in Congress literally plotted to sabotage and undermine U.S. Economy during President Obama's Inauguration. In Robert Draper's book, "Do Not Ask What Good We Do: Inside the U.S. House of Representatives" Draper wrote that during a four hour, "invitation only" meeting with GOP Hate-Propaganda Minister, Frank Luntz, 12 Senior GOP Law Writers & Newt Gingrich literally plotted to sabotage, undermine and destroy America's Economy.
During the four hour meeting:
The senior GOP members plotted to bring Congress to a standstill regardless how much it would hurt the American Economy by pledging to obstruct and block President Obama on all legislation.
6
This country may end up with runaway inflation. The billionaires can afford that. The economy of the country can fall.
And, what kind of jobs will we see? Low paying jobs where we can hardly pay our rent, house payments, buy food for our families or prescriptions. He isn't worried about any of this. I've never heard anything about what type of jobs he will bring in -- so far it has been manufacturing jobs. Why is he calling the shots? Don't other department have just as much say such as our balance of powers? I'm not optimistic about any jobs. So far he has proposed an increase in my medical expenses, threatened my Social Security and has put people in place so my family's health will deteriorate and the environment will be null. We will destroy our planet.
And, what kind of jobs will we see? Low paying jobs where we can hardly pay our rent, house payments, buy food for our families or prescriptions. He isn't worried about any of this. I've never heard anything about what type of jobs he will bring in -- so far it has been manufacturing jobs. Why is he calling the shots? Don't other department have just as much say such as our balance of powers? I'm not optimistic about any jobs. So far he has proposed an increase in my medical expenses, threatened my Social Security and has put people in place so my family's health will deteriorate and the environment will be null. We will destroy our planet.
5
On a positive note, seems COLA increases for Social Security recipients may soon be skyrocketing nicely.
The US economy is still not fundamentally sound. This paced economic growth has been artificially induced by the Feds since 2008. The party of NO used to curse the feds for "printing money" but now they want a license to print money at a faster pace. The US will not recover from another recession. And I'm afraid, should there be one within 2 years, Trump will of course blame the Feds, so his blind and well armed followers will start a civil war.
1
One of Mr. Trump's principal stated purposes in deporting undocumented aliens is to cut the labor supply and thereby raise wages for folks legally in the country. If he succeeds in substantially reducing the number of undocumented (generally low wage) aliens in the country, wage-driven inflationary pressures will build more quickly, and the Fed will almost certainly have to raise interest rates faster than expected. As Mr. Trump stated recently about health care: "Nobody knew [it] could be so complicated."
2
YES and those out of work coal miners can start working in the fields...it is all physical labor....smirk
5
Wow. Trump and the GOP have been complaining about low interest rates and the risk of inflation for years, decades, now they pivot?
LOL hilarious.
Seriously, when during the Obama admin the rates were held low the GOP and FOX News piled on demanding a rise in rates. They were screaming inflation at every turn. Of course BHO had no direct control of Fed policy.
LOL hilarious.
Seriously, when during the Obama admin the rates were held low the GOP and FOX News piled on demanding a rise in rates. They were screaming inflation at every turn. Of course BHO had no direct control of Fed policy.
4
Trump's solution to being dangerously wrong?
Fire the referee!
His and his enablers corrupt enabling of a looting kleptocracy is leaving us all so much less safe. A few people might laugh all the way to the bank for the time being, but even they will suffer when the whole structure built on toxic waste (metaphorical and real) comes tumbling down.
Fire the referee!
His and his enablers corrupt enabling of a looting kleptocracy is leaving us all so much less safe. A few people might laugh all the way to the bank for the time being, but even they will suffer when the whole structure built on toxic waste (metaphorical and real) comes tumbling down.
5
Trump's ignorance is monumental, so it's no surprise he cluelessly wants to increase economic growth as if it's that simple and there are no consequences. There's a reason central banks are not subject to political stupidity, but this is lost on someone who knows so little about so much. Sustainable economic growth avoids sudden reversals and volatility. More growth isn't simply better. The Fed is correct to consider a broader overview.
Eclectic Pragmatism — http://eclectic-pragmatist.tumblr.com/
Eclectic Pragmatist — https://medium.com/eclectic-pragmatism
Eclectic Pragmatism — http://eclectic-pragmatist.tumblr.com/
Eclectic Pragmatist — https://medium.com/eclectic-pragmatism
19
It's doesn't matter who's president if you get a job or lose a job, the fact is, your employment status changed in spite of who is in the Oval Office. CNBC reports that actual jobs created exceeded expected jobs created [http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/08/private-sector-jobs-february-2017-adp.html] and the FED is taking this data into consideration. Also in the mix is an undercurrent of job layoffs occurring across the US; 100 here, 70, there, Boeing, Macy's, JC Penny's, WalMart, all under reported but occurring none the less. In the face of conflicting data, the prudent move is to move incrementally, rather than irrationally.
The FIX. It seems that the push to reduce taxes is motivated toward shareholders (political contributors) getting immediately higher dividend (tax cuts) as a result of purchasing the company stock (electing trump). It's a short term outlook under the guise of trying to "stimulate the economy."
FEAR MONGERING. On the campaign trail, trump said he wanted Yellen out. Along the way and to further his ends, trump and bannon have created villains out of previously trusted sources: the new media, Intelligence Community, EPA, NSC, CBO, the federal workforce, and soon, the FED.
At what point is enough, enough? Imagine an economy that swings as wildly as trumps moods.
The FIX. It seems that the push to reduce taxes is motivated toward shareholders (political contributors) getting immediately higher dividend (tax cuts) as a result of purchasing the company stock (electing trump). It's a short term outlook under the guise of trying to "stimulate the economy."
FEAR MONGERING. On the campaign trail, trump said he wanted Yellen out. Along the way and to further his ends, trump and bannon have created villains out of previously trusted sources: the new media, Intelligence Community, EPA, NSC, CBO, the federal workforce, and soon, the FED.
At what point is enough, enough? Imagine an economy that swings as wildly as trumps moods.
13
Foolishnes of the Fed, when so many poorer people are still underemployed and in the debt with their cars and credit cards. Watch the asset bubbles burst and the economy tank again. With a strong dollar and Trump at the helm nobody will want to buy American or come here anymore .
3
Trump's pseudologia fantastica is going to make everyone poorer and sicker except for his family and their buddies.
18
"Fed officials estimate that the economy is already growing at something like the maximum sustainable pace"
Something like?
Something like?
4
It's not an exact science, you know. Similar to the weather - stochastic analysis methods have improved over the centuries, but there is still too much randomness involved to be completely precise.
The cumulative effect... the same human solution for all planet problems.
When humans are going to really think different and try a new alternative given the undeniable evidence that the chosen "unstoppable growth" solution is full of deadly insurmountable contradictions?
The human race... a bunch of losers too fond on rationality.
When humans are going to really think different and try a new alternative given the undeniable evidence that the chosen "unstoppable growth" solution is full of deadly insurmountable contradictions?
The human race... a bunch of losers too fond on rationality.
1
Logic won't work for this totally, crazy, vicious illogical administration. Will sound bizarre, but in this case illogical advice will get logical results. As they say, the end justifies the means.
4
None of this matters. They want the fight. They want to attack Fed. They know their economic/budget "plans" are nonsense. They are not that stupid. Listen to the budget director say Obama lied about the unemployment rate, but they corrected it; kellyann's allegation that the black guy is still spying on us and our great leader from inside the microwave; and their racist congressional mouthpiece affirm that non-whites and not Christians should be sterilized. Stupefying.
9
History does truly repeat itself...we're seeing the same claims of credit for growth in our economy by the Trumpsters..the same way W and his pillaging gang claimed credit for the long-lasting effects of the Clinton boom years which blessed the first year of W's presidency. Of course, 2008 reflected the results of republican policies in full effect --- economic ruin. We all see the redux coming from Trump's ruinous policies.
126
cece: I was waiting for someone to draw a parallel between the Obama economic policy and Trumps non-policy.
The Clinton era boom and its' budget surplus, were followed by Dubya's encore of emptying the coffers with a one time "stimulus" and the budgetary sleight of hand waging a multi-trillion dollar war "on credit" and his creation of a Medicare prescription drug benefit with neither funding nor the ability of the federal government to negotiate price discounts with Big Pharma.
The only thing I would add is that since 1869 Goldman Sachs has been at the very heart of every major US economic collapse. Count the number of G-S appointments by DT. See a pattern? Need a crystal ball?
The Clinton era boom and its' budget surplus, were followed by Dubya's encore of emptying the coffers with a one time "stimulus" and the budgetary sleight of hand waging a multi-trillion dollar war "on credit" and his creation of a Medicare prescription drug benefit with neither funding nor the ability of the federal government to negotiate price discounts with Big Pharma.
The only thing I would add is that since 1869 Goldman Sachs has been at the very heart of every major US economic collapse. Count the number of G-S appointments by DT. See a pattern? Need a crystal ball?
1
Fed can raise rates, POTUS can issue his Stupendous Tax Plan — Problem solved.
4
The Fed's inflation target of 2% is not conducive to economic growth and rising income for most Americans. Not only it has hold down wage growth forcing working Americans to rely on credit for living expenses, contributing to consumer debt and depressing savings but also contributing to the high value of the US dollars.
Raising the inflation target to 4% will supercharge the US economy with growth on spar with China, significantly raising wages and incomes for working Americans, making American export more competitive, reducing trade deficit and cost of servicing the national debt. It will more than offset the cost of imported goods.
There are ample reasons to raise the inflation target of 2%. The Fed knows it but has been too timid and wedded to the outdated and empirically unsupportable 2% target, given the economic growth rate of 2% or less of the US economy and its status as the global reserve currency. There is no reason why a mature economy cannot grow substantially more than 2%.
Raising the inflation target to 4% will supercharge the US economy with growth on spar with China, significantly raising wages and incomes for working Americans, making American export more competitive, reducing trade deficit and cost of servicing the national debt. It will more than offset the cost of imported goods.
There are ample reasons to raise the inflation target of 2%. The Fed knows it but has been too timid and wedded to the outdated and empirically unsupportable 2% target, given the economic growth rate of 2% or less of the US economy and its status as the global reserve currency. There is no reason why a mature economy cannot grow substantially more than 2%.
Back to Econ 101 + some common sense. First most developed economies can't break 3%...China has been a developing economy and their GDP is tied to massive production of consumer goods in the 90-to the current period with their focus now on developing internal consumption as the now have as many middle class consumers as we have people.
Secondly the US like many developed Western economies is constrained by demographics. 10,000 boomers are leaving the workforce every DAY...and with Trump's deportation plans, a whole segment of the cheap labor force is departing from it.
Now you have inflation due to increasing labor costs. Add into the mix stimulus when the Fed should be slowing the economy and you make the ingredients for disastrous run-a-way inflation. Mr. Trump should have learned this is econ in which he supposedly go a bachelors degree from prestigious Wharton.
Secondly the US like many developed Western economies is constrained by demographics. 10,000 boomers are leaving the workforce every DAY...and with Trump's deportation plans, a whole segment of the cheap labor force is departing from it.
Now you have inflation due to increasing labor costs. Add into the mix stimulus when the Fed should be slowing the economy and you make the ingredients for disastrous run-a-way inflation. Mr. Trump should have learned this is econ in which he supposedly go a bachelors degree from prestigious Wharton.
2
So, um, you think Americans struggling to keep up with inflation at 2% will do better at 4%? Inflation rate is not growth rate. They have some inter-correlation but they are not locked in step.
1
Gee, what happened to the " economic disaster ", with the " real " unemployment rate of 40%???? I guess that America is great, again.
6
'The unemployment rate fell below 5 percent last May.'
This implies that there is just one national unemployment rate used by econometricians in the USA. In fact, there are six main metrics used by the US government. (There are also many other unemployment metrics used in other countries but not currently in the USA).
In the US, the so-calłed official national unemployment rate is the U3 unemployment rate. It was the U3 rate that fell below 5 per cent last May.
Many economists whose speciality is labour economics would argue that in fact the various different metrics used to measure local, regional and national participation rates for different groups is more meaningful and easier for the average person to understand than the U3 unemployment rate. But you would never have an inkling of that if you were to rely only on the NYT for its sanitised and perpetually upbeat view of the American economy.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/07/employment-vs-unemployme...
This implies that there is just one national unemployment rate used by econometricians in the USA. In fact, there are six main metrics used by the US government. (There are also many other unemployment metrics used in other countries but not currently in the USA).
In the US, the so-calłed official national unemployment rate is the U3 unemployment rate. It was the U3 rate that fell below 5 per cent last May.
Many economists whose speciality is labour economics would argue that in fact the various different metrics used to measure local, regional and national participation rates for different groups is more meaningful and easier for the average person to understand than the U3 unemployment rate. But you would never have an inkling of that if you were to rely only on the NYT for its sanitised and perpetually upbeat view of the American economy.
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/03/07/employment-vs-unemployme...
4
When talking Presidential policies, the U3 is the most relevant. Most of the others are more useful for determining what you want your state and local governments to do, since the US is a federation, not a straight democracy. Unfortunately, the vast majority of Americans don't pay enough attention to those elections - national elections have the highest turnouts on average, and it's still hard to get even 50% of voters to come out for those.
Too bad "Trump Want, Trump Get", which is a very fine slogan for attracting simpleton acolytes, don't work too good in the real world. Can't wait for the disconnect when interest rates get bumped two or three times this year and the taking undue credit for the rise in the DJIA, the lowering of the unemployment rate, and jobs created ceases when the market corrects, the unemployment rate ticks up from ending Obamacare, and jobs growth stalls. Then it will be the black guy's fault again.
4
I see Freddy Mac Bank that caused a worldwide recession, some years ago, is still in business! Those who forget history are condemned to relive it. NZ has a building boom as well, because of immigration, and that's what is fuelling economic growth. It's not real regional economic growth built on solid foundations like export growth, and one day the bubble will burst. Lots of USA wasteland could have been used for farming if the government had laws in place to protect water and rules around farming so land didn't end up wasteland. Without a healthy water supply your economy cannot grow and you need to protect your water supply so it isn't exploited or wasted by businesses. If the government wants to create real jobs then it could take on workers to get the infrastructure in the USA in a healthy condition so businesses can thrive and grow.
5
LOL, the US pays some farmers NOT to grow crops on their land. Rebuilding infrastructure is a temporary jobs fix, because you need way more workers to rebuild than to maintain. And where do they want to get the infrastructure money, since after all they want to slash taxes while ramping up the military and other costs? Gut healthcare, of course. If you're not wealthy enough to pay for it, suck it up, grin, and bear it. Of course, hospitals can't just throw sick people out on the street, so less expensive continual care becomes much more expensive catastrophic care - but then, the healthcare vultures make tons of money in that environment.
USA also has tariffs on imported meat. NZ has no tariffs on imports.
NZ can't keep up with the export orders to overseas nations and that's because quality and healthy image of a nations farming practices is more important than tariffs. It does have a negative side for locals as we have to pay more for our fruit and veges and meats because of shortages caused by exports.
Nations also have to spend money on Research and Development to grow their overseas markets. N.Z. is in the process of inventing a red kiwifruit, There's green, gold, and probably a red one in the future.
NZ can't keep up with the export orders to overseas nations and that's because quality and healthy image of a nations farming practices is more important than tariffs. It does have a negative side for locals as we have to pay more for our fruit and veges and meats because of shortages caused by exports.
Nations also have to spend money on Research and Development to grow their overseas markets. N.Z. is in the process of inventing a red kiwifruit, There's green, gold, and probably a red one in the future.
Our economy and country is not a monolith where one solution fits all. We need to target resouces where it is still struggling such as places hardest hit by job loss and economic changes and where wages are still stagnant. Infrastructurespending would accomplish this and a sound health care program that assists the poor and middle class would also add to our security. But Republicans despite their words are fixated on giving tax cuts to the wealthiest, ignoring infrastructure, gutting education for those needing training and creating a health care system that is bound to fail. Perhaps Trump could offer a program that could maintain lower interest rates for the middle class and poor.
But Republicans have no plans for the economy or people and onlycontinue their past policies of destruction. The Feds have been left holding the bag for our economy as it has been since Republicans assumed control of Congress and noew the whole government. Its about time that Republicans since they have assumed control of the government should take responsibility other than just dispensing money for their rich patrons.
But Republicans have no plans for the economy or people and onlycontinue their past policies of destruction. The Feds have been left holding the bag for our economy as it has been since Republicans assumed control of Congress and noew the whole government. Its about time that Republicans since they have assumed control of the government should take responsibility other than just dispensing money for their rich patrons.
1
Trump wants to increase the socialist counterfeiting of money and credit by the Fed, a Progressive institution. Money and credit are market, not political. Theft with counterfeit is not production. Trump is merely one more of a century+ of anti-capitalist Presidents. Trash the Fed. End legal tender. Abolish all govt controls on finance, one of the two most controlled industries. The market, ie, man's independent mind, is the basic cause of production. Private money and credit must guide production and trade. See: Ludwig von Mises and Brian Simpson.
Man is still too ethically challenged on the whole for this to work and benefit every person fairly, or even legally. I'm not talking about arbitrary or socialist rules of fairness. I'm talking about too many greedy people who will take advantage of people and even break laws under pure, unrestrained capitalism. We've seen it in the past, and I've seen no evidence even now that humanity has changed.
Trump and Republican leaders are going to drive inflation and our national debt through the roof.
In their American Health Care Act, they've repealed virtually all of the funding sources of Obamacare, left costly Obamacare reforms (e.g., essential benefits, no exclusion of pre-existing conditions, kids stay on parents plans), have proposed tax credits of $2,000 - $4,000 per person and bypass the "Pay-as-You-Go" requirement of offsetting new spending with either new revenue or cuts to existing spending. Both premium increases and deficits will result.
The several trillion dollar tax cut they are working on cannot be offset, even with rapacious cuts to the safety net, so will add to our national debt.
Funny how the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates of job growth were phony when Obama was President but voila are now accurate in Trump's first month! And strange how deficits and the national debt mattered when Republicans were not in charge, but now no longer matter.
At least those on fixed incomes with the capital to invest in fixed returns will benefit from the inflation to come. But, Seniors that rely upon Social Security - not so much
In their American Health Care Act, they've repealed virtually all of the funding sources of Obamacare, left costly Obamacare reforms (e.g., essential benefits, no exclusion of pre-existing conditions, kids stay on parents plans), have proposed tax credits of $2,000 - $4,000 per person and bypass the "Pay-as-You-Go" requirement of offsetting new spending with either new revenue or cuts to existing spending. Both premium increases and deficits will result.
The several trillion dollar tax cut they are working on cannot be offset, even with rapacious cuts to the safety net, so will add to our national debt.
Funny how the Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates of job growth were phony when Obama was President but voila are now accurate in Trump's first month! And strange how deficits and the national debt mattered when Republicans were not in charge, but now no longer matter.
At least those on fixed incomes with the capital to invest in fixed returns will benefit from the inflation to come. But, Seniors that rely upon Social Security - not so much
29
One would only be kidding themselves if they believed that Donald J. Trump understood basic economics just because he is a businessman. First of all, much of his money comes from licensing his phony persona. Secondly, he has benefitted from stealing monies owed to others for himself. He has defaulted on countless loans and not paid many of his contractors for work done. All except the lawyers he hires who are cheaper to pay than what he owes his creditors. Finally, if you read of his various bui9lding schemes across the word, he is nothing but a grubby little money launderer. He would run up inflation, take credit for "beautiful growth" and then blame the Fed when it all comes crashing down. Never his fault!! Everyone else is stupid, right? Yeah, the folks who voted for him are for sure.
1
And you're not even factoring in increased military and immigration enforcement spending. Huge revenue cuts, tiny spending cuts, artificial economy boosting activities that can't be sustained. When have we seen this before? Maybe, oh, like the last 3-4 Republican administrations? At least Reagan's stab at it had one very positive result - the Soviet Union destroyed itself trying to keep pace with US spending. Unfortunately, Russia won't fall for that okie-doke again.
Economics, and especially economic forecasting, are at best proto-sciences. Its assertions are based on currently plausible assumptions that may not be true or true in all conditions. For example, that economic growth is constrained by supply factors, such as population and productivity growth, both of which are low. If this is the case, the Fed would be correct to raise interest rates, given that the economy is nearly at full capacity.
But what if economic growth is constrained by aggregate demand? Businesses are still holding lots of cash and not investing in new technology, plant, and equipment, because consumers are still paying off debt. In that case, it might make sense for the Fed not to raise interest rates and for the government to undertake a large Keynesian stimulus.
But what if economic growth is constrained by aggregate demand? Businesses are still holding lots of cash and not investing in new technology, plant, and equipment, because consumers are still paying off debt. In that case, it might make sense for the Fed not to raise interest rates and for the government to undertake a large Keynesian stimulus.
1
Trump epitomizes the worship of force and the practice of cruel intolerance, an ugly spirit now emerging and taking hold in the US. It is the antithesis of securing a national minimum of civilised life ... open to all alike, of both sexes and all classes, by which we mean sufficient nourishment and training when young, a living wage when able-bodied, treatment when sick, and modest but secure livelihood when disabled or aged.
9
Let's be realistic; we're probably at the end of this current growth cycle. The market is currently bubbling up. Expect a fall if Trump starts taxing imports as consumption accounts for over 70% of GDP.
4
Irony: deportations would hurt growth. As the Fed says, sustainable growth requires both consumers and producers.
8
I was somewhat surprised to see a major American Bank's analysis last week that indicated that well over 50% of all American households are "experiencing economic difficulties." Perhaps my shaky financial situation isn't all that unique after all!
12
Over 50% is almost as vague as "experiencing economic difficulties".
1
Yes, but what is their definition of "economic difficulties"?
3
You're right; I suppose it's "corporate-speak" for hard times.
1
For someone who has set himself up as a "successful" businessman, Trump shows an amazing amount of ignorance on basic economics while displaying no hesitance to smear reputable people who disagree with him. The same goes for the GOP. They appear to have no concern or passing interest in the working classes except getting them to vote for a party that works against their interests. I'm not sure but isn't this the sort of thing that usually gets governments in trouble with their citizens in ways that are not pleasant to contemplate?
80
What do you expect from someone who went bankrupt 6 times, including in the should-have-been foolproof casino industry? His relative current business success is more about personality than keen business acumen.
2
We’re still waiting for Trump's Tax Returns - let NYT and the rest of the media focus on that. To paraphrase Trump - please hack the so-called President's tax returns please, in order to get real clarity about him. Focus, focus!!!
10
As a senior citizen that has most of his saving in a money market account that pays near nothing in interest, I can only welcome an increase in the Feds interest rate. We do not really need a faster economic growth. What we need a is steady predictable growth.
Of course real estate agents and lenders will not agree with that.
Of course real estate agents and lenders will not agree with that.
6
True, an epic clash is brewing between Trump/Republicans and the Fed, particularly when the inevitable recession occurs.
What we're already seeing here is not just Trump's but also the Republicans' classic playbook. . . 1) Personalize gains - i.e. take credit for all good things that happen in our capitalist system and reward through tax breaks and regulatory loopholes and 2) Socialize costs - i.e. blame others and 'takers' when things don't go the way they expected their misguided policies to go.
This has created a vicious cycle for many, particularly those at the lower ends of the skill and income scale. When the economy is good, they barely keep up. And when the economy is bad, they disproportionately get whacked
What we're already seeing here is not just Trump's but also the Republicans' classic playbook. . . 1) Personalize gains - i.e. take credit for all good things that happen in our capitalist system and reward through tax breaks and regulatory loopholes and 2) Socialize costs - i.e. blame others and 'takers' when things don't go the way they expected their misguided policies to go.
This has created a vicious cycle for many, particularly those at the lower ends of the skill and income scale. When the economy is good, they barely keep up. And when the economy is bad, they disproportionately get whacked
2
Trump is long on wanting lots of things but he is short on delivery.
Trump can best be described by a quote from Shakespeare’s Macbeth:
Trump is “a poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage and then is heard no more: it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”
Have faith America … this guy will not last long !!!
But when he is gone, then what ???
Trump can best be described by a quote from Shakespeare’s Macbeth:
Trump is “a poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage and then is heard no more: it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”
Have faith America … this guy will not last long !!!
But when he is gone, then what ???
10
Given Trump's business acumen, I think if we do the exact opposite of everything he says, we'll be fine.
31
What a guy! Knows nothing, reads nothing, listens to nobody!
40
Trump and his fans are intent on achieving 4% growth, while getting illegal immigrants out and cutting legal ones. At a time when the birthrate alone yields virtually zero population growth.
These are conflicting goals that are totally irreconcilable.
For example:
-99.7% of our population is housed. As housing is the #1 driver of the economy how do you get 4% growth when population is barely growing?
-There are over 250 million registered vehicles on the roads today, and 220 million licensed drivers. As vehicle sales are the #2 driver of the economy how do you get 4% growth when we already have more vehicles than drivers?
So keep it up, fools. And while you're at it, keep shopping at Walmart while you decry outsourcing.
These are conflicting goals that are totally irreconcilable.
For example:
-99.7% of our population is housed. As housing is the #1 driver of the economy how do you get 4% growth when population is barely growing?
-There are over 250 million registered vehicles on the roads today, and 220 million licensed drivers. As vehicle sales are the #2 driver of the economy how do you get 4% growth when we already have more vehicles than drivers?
So keep it up, fools. And while you're at it, keep shopping at Walmart while you decry outsourcing.
10
The United States is dependent on imports of raw materials that are needed to keep our economy moving. U.S. manufacturers are now more than 40 percent dependent on imports of many commodity and rare earth metals. For example, import reliance on gallium is at 94 percent, cobalt and titanium 81 percent, chromium 56 percent, silicon 44 percent and nickel 43 percent. These minerals are critical for defense and energy technologies and many high-tech consumer products. We are also dependent on imports for neodymium, samarium and dysprosium, but they are crucial in the manufacture of jet fighter engines, antimissile defense systems, night vision goggles and smart bombs, among other advanced military systems. And they have many other high-tech applications — computers, cell phones and flat-panel televisions, for example. Additionally, they are essential to petroleum refining, automotive catalytic converters, wind turbines and electric vehicles. The foreign production of rare earth minerals is concentrated almost entirely in a single country with its own rising industrial demand: China.
No man is an island entire of itself; every man
is a piece of the continent… as well as
any manner of thy friends or of thine
own were; any man's death diminishes me,
because I am involved in mankind.
And therefore never send to know for whom
the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.
Trump is selling nationalism as if the US was a ship a bottle.
No man is an island entire of itself; every man
is a piece of the continent… as well as
any manner of thy friends or of thine
own were; any man's death diminishes me,
because I am involved in mankind.
And therefore never send to know for whom
the bell tolls; it tolls for thee.
Trump is selling nationalism as if the US was a ship a bottle.
9
Trump is looking for excuses. Where are the job-creations he promised would come flowing out of his every pore? Where's his "grand infrastructure plan?" Where's the reinvigoration of the Rust Belt, and "putting America to work again." The Republican Congress and Republican Senate are the same party as Big Mouth. So put up or Shut Up!
4
Monetary policy as described takes into account the nearly full employment and the implausibility of an increase in production anytime soon, in spite of a demagogue's harangue of accelerating the economy by increasing consumption on a stagnant salary...and a war on free trade that promises higher prices of imported products, adding financial stress to the very people that trusted Trump and Pence to do their bidding. Both Trump and Pence are seasoned liars, charlatans with the ability to sell their supporters lots of fiction, but devoid of the harsh reality unfolding in front of their very eyes. Just wait to see the fiasco of replacing Obamacare, stiffing the poor and benefiting the rich. Nothing short of an arrogant and unscrupulous cadre of misfits in government, What's new?
80
THIS administration is NEW....never seen anything like it before !!
Hope to never again either.
Hope to never again either.
"Labor force participation is low" means that long term unemployment persists. That is the Great Recession still lingering, for the people it wrecked.
Yellen says that monetary policy cannot affect "demographic factors," but if she lumps long term unemployment into "demographics" then it certainly can, and is finally starting to do so.
"She noted that the White House and Congress could adopt fiscal policies that would improve those fundamental factors." Yes, we have needed stimulus spending, and we have not gotten it. Monetary policy was a second choice. However, it is still all we've got.
This is a long running dispute, in which the politicians push action off onto the Fed. I agree that is unwise, but the reaction of undoing even the Fed's limited ability to act is the wrong fix.
Yellen says that monetary policy cannot affect "demographic factors," but if she lumps long term unemployment into "demographics" then it certainly can, and is finally starting to do so.
"She noted that the White House and Congress could adopt fiscal policies that would improve those fundamental factors." Yes, we have needed stimulus spending, and we have not gotten it. Monetary policy was a second choice. However, it is still all we've got.
This is a long running dispute, in which the politicians push action off onto the Fed. I agree that is unwise, but the reaction of undoing even the Fed's limited ability to act is the wrong fix.
19
The real problem is tax and regulator policy that is ant-growth and ant-business for the domestic economy. Current policy favors multinational corporations with foreign production over domestic production and employment.
2
"For the people it wrecked."
So true.
We and almost all of our friends were in our early 40s when it hit, with kids and mortgages. Several of our college-educated, always-working, responsible friends lost their HOMES. A few divorced due to the financial stress.
Then, Obamacare delivered the final blow to our finances (we paid $23,000 in premiums in 2016 for 1 adult and 2 children (aged 17 and 21--completely healthy); my husband's employer paid his premiums). Then, while paying a whopping $2K a month in premiums, we still had to meet outrageous deductibles.
We will never recover and we will never forget the Democrats who increased our insurance costs by $10K literally overnight with all of the regulations and subsidies at a time when people like us could least afford it.
So true.
We and almost all of our friends were in our early 40s when it hit, with kids and mortgages. Several of our college-educated, always-working, responsible friends lost their HOMES. A few divorced due to the financial stress.
Then, Obamacare delivered the final blow to our finances (we paid $23,000 in premiums in 2016 for 1 adult and 2 children (aged 17 and 21--completely healthy); my husband's employer paid his premiums). Then, while paying a whopping $2K a month in premiums, we still had to meet outrageous deductibles.
We will never recover and we will never forget the Democrats who increased our insurance costs by $10K literally overnight with all of the regulations and subsidies at a time when people like us could least afford it.
3
Of course the insurance companies set the premiums and the companies themselves are governed at the state level. So, why are you not on your husband's plan? $20k gross premiums for a family plan is not unheard of but what an employee pays is far below the the total cost in an employer plan.
Not sure if Mr Trump understand the Government's Role in the economy!
...it's only role is to control the interest rates but if they're lowered anymore, we risk the chance of some people acquiring Loans that will be Completely Unqualified for ...and last time this happen, it lead to A Recession. Which some of Mr Trump's friends and circle found themselves in it.
Hope someone takes the time to explain The Economy to Mr. Trump instead of Gambling with it.
...it's only role is to control the interest rates but if they're lowered anymore, we risk the chance of some people acquiring Loans that will be Completely Unqualified for ...and last time this happen, it lead to A Recession. Which some of Mr Trump's friends and circle found themselves in it.
Hope someone takes the time to explain The Economy to Mr. Trump instead of Gambling with it.
1
Trump used the 'faster growth at all costs' model in his own business. And guess what - it caused him to declare BANKRUPTCY FOUR TIMES. And that was after his father tried to bail him out with million of dollars (Trump Senior purchased $3 MILLION dollars worth of chips at one of Sonnt Trump's failing casino in 1991).
The US doesn't have a wealthy Daddy to help us out - all we have is his profligate son raiding our treasury. Keep Donald Trump OUT of the economy. He will bankrupt us ALL.
The US doesn't have a wealthy Daddy to help us out - all we have is his profligate son raiding our treasury. Keep Donald Trump OUT of the economy. He will bankrupt us ALL.
31
What people forget about Trump is that he may have undergone bankruptcy reorganization but he never just closed up shop and walked away - as so many did, in NY and elsewhere. I am so tired of hearing he went bankrupt without the rest of the story.
Me, so ALL the bankruptcies were Good Ones?
Most of them?
1/2 of them?
Most of them?
1/2 of them?
1
We had a standoff called sequester which kept both growth and inflation very tame for a very long sustained recovery. I suspect with one party rule we will get much more spending coupled with larger deficits. That will speed up both growth and inflation.
We have a President who believes in leverage of capital. I suspect Congress will use that leverage to push federal funds to their constituents. That is always the case with one party rule where the opposition is powerless.
The big X factor is the speed in which AI and robotics fundamentally destroys the value of labor.
We have a President who believes in leverage of capital. I suspect Congress will use that leverage to push federal funds to their constituents. That is always the case with one party rule where the opposition is powerless.
The big X factor is the speed in which AI and robotics fundamentally destroys the value of labor.
3
Slow growth is better and not as volatile. There is the childhood story of the Tortoise and the Hare (no pun intended).
The Donald has done nothing, nada, zip, zero as far as advance a piece of legislation. He is all over the place starting fires so someone else can put them out and playing golf and eating. And spending taxpayers money. Fiscal conservative he is not.
The Donald has done nothing, nada, zip, zero as far as advance a piece of legislation. He is all over the place starting fires so someone else can put them out and playing golf and eating. And spending taxpayers money. Fiscal conservative he is not.
26
He's been in office just 6 weeks! Isn't it time to at least see what happens before saying he's done "nada"?
Hillary was measuring the drapes for the Oval Office two years in advance and had thousands of people she owed favors to and hundreds of zillion dollar donors all lined up for their ambassadorships and political appointments. It takes time to build a government when you are doing more than paying people off.
Hillary was measuring the drapes for the Oval Office two years in advance and had thousands of people she owed favors to and hundreds of zillion dollar donors all lined up for their ambassadorships and political appointments. It takes time to build a government when you are doing more than paying people off.
2
The of rate growth for the last 8 years is below historic norms and work force growth. These liberal progressive policies result in reduced economic opportunity for middle America. This should not be exceptable to the country.
1
There is no such thing as fiscal conservatives. Our government has majority parties, divided government and minority parties. Majority parties spend, minority parties obstruct and divided government is fiscally responsible.
Hold onto your pocketbooks, ladies. Cutting the number of federal workers through attrition and firings in no way will advance the number of private jobs available to them, but they will be entitled to unemployment which will be a drain on the budget. Also raising federal costs is DT's desire to spend $54 billion more on the military which is a great windfall for the military industrial complex but doesn't actually produce more salaries that get circulated in the economy. Add to that the increase in the interest rate (so everything will cost more) and the building of the wall, and even if the rest of the budget stays flat the economy will go south -- again.
For Bannon/Trump this is all part of the path to disruption and disempowerment of the federal government. It also means that your state governments will be called upon to do what the Feds will no longer be doing: cue the state tax raises. Ah, the brilliance of DT is truly staggering, along with the venality and stupidity of the Congress as they acquiesce.
For Bannon/Trump this is all part of the path to disruption and disempowerment of the federal government. It also means that your state governments will be called upon to do what the Feds will no longer be doing: cue the state tax raises. Ah, the brilliance of DT is truly staggering, along with the venality and stupidity of the Congress as they acquiesce.
4
trump wants to create a huge economic bubble of false prosperity that will burst in our faces just as he leaves office in four years, if not sooner, with his golden parachute intact. of that i'm sure. trump is all about appearing to make good on fantasies he promised his base. for the popular majority which did not vote for him and for the sustained good of the country, he could care less about.
5
Wall Street wants some inflation as the balance between earnings interest vs debt expense works best with growth, eg, 2%, ideally. However, at 4% growth things become more unpredictable and tend towards sneaky pockets of dangerous inflation and overwrought speculation. At 6% growth you begin to look like China and hot economies and zero unemployment.
8
It doesn't work that way, and here's why:
China has 1/4 the per capita income of the US.
So for every 10,000 of income in China, an American has 40,000.
An $800 raise to an American is 2%.
A $600 raise to a Chinese worker is 6%.
Who got the bigger raise?
The US has 800 vehicles on the road per 1000 people.
China has 200 per 1000.
If 1.2% of the Chinese people add cars, that is 6% growth.
If 1.6% of the American people add cars, that is 2% growth.
Who had more growth?
China has 1/4 the per capita income of the US.
So for every 10,000 of income in China, an American has 40,000.
An $800 raise to an American is 2%.
A $600 raise to a Chinese worker is 6%.
Who got the bigger raise?
The US has 800 vehicles on the road per 1000 people.
China has 200 per 1000.
If 1.2% of the Chinese people add cars, that is 6% growth.
If 1.6% of the American people add cars, that is 2% growth.
Who had more growth?
The Fed needs to be abolished. An institution able to print money and adjust interests rates as they see fit has no place in a democratic system. The fed is not a branch of the federal government. It is a private entity. If no one can see how this is absurd then we are not paying attention. You want to know why 2008 happened? The fed. Why do we have inflation? The Fed. They generate money out of thin air and DEBT is the only thing that gives a dollar any value. Absurd system. The only thing the Federal Reserve is good for is funding the political and global ambitions of the Oligarchs.
Signing off
Signing off
2
So after only 2 months in office Trump wants to take credit for Obama's 2 full 8-year terms? Bush Jr ruins the US economy, then leaves it to Obama to fix. How does the GOP still have a base of voters?
52
A thinking person realizes that the GOP doesn't have a very strong base of voters.
Every Establishment Repuglican was rejected during the primaries.
Voters in the primaries overwhelmingly went for Trump--a political outsider--because they were so sick of the GOP.
Democrats, meanwhile, put party over country and stuck with a loser candidate in the primaries. And because of that, they've lost the Supreme Court for years.
Gen X and Millenials are DONE with the 2-party system. The dinosaurs who cling to the stupefying belief that Democrats still represent the working person despite all evidence to the contrary will continue to see their votes disappear in the wind.
Every Establishment Repuglican was rejected during the primaries.
Voters in the primaries overwhelmingly went for Trump--a political outsider--because they were so sick of the GOP.
Democrats, meanwhile, put party over country and stuck with a loser candidate in the primaries. And because of that, they've lost the Supreme Court for years.
Gen X and Millenials are DONE with the 2-party system. The dinosaurs who cling to the stupefying belief that Democrats still represent the working person despite all evidence to the contrary will continue to see their votes disappear in the wind.
2
I believe Janet Yellen could move into the Oval Office tomorrow and do a better job as President than the current one, and so I trust her judgment over his administration's when it comes to interest rates.
19
Faster growth, eh? A story... a man I knew once decided his tomato plants were not growing fast enough, so he used extra fertilizer on them to stimulate their growth. And as the summer passed, the vines of the tomato plants grew to be nearly 5 feet high. I'd never seen tomato plants so big. Then the time came to harvest the tomatoes, and it was a disappointment, because the tomatoes were smaller than normal and not anymore plentiful than on a normal plant.
The man had stimulated growth, but the harvest was lacking. I have a feeling this will be the end result of Trumpian economics... a big show with disappointing results.
The man had stimulated growth, but the harvest was lacking. I have a feeling this will be the end result of Trumpian economics... a big show with disappointing results.
227
Under Trumpian economics people are more likely to get squashed
3
Lotsa manure means more flies, but not bigger fruit. Trimming leaves puts more of the tomato plant's energy into growing tomatoes. Too large a crop of tomatoes and the price crashes. They go rotten on the vine. Tomatoes are good for throwing at the traitor president. Yes, it all makes sense.
1
Even worse, probably costs more to harvest the 5 foot tall plants...
1
Trump wants faster growth, because in his narcissistic, uneducated mind, he will be able to claim that fastest = best or winner, not understanding basic economic principles or the complex nature of domestic and international markets. If you loved his record of bankruptcies and stiffing everyone around him, you will probably love what is coming down the pike at us all now.
48
Trump is the Great Pretender (Kids: Look up the reference). Since Daddy Fred made Donny president of the family business (the only job Trump had) he's pretended to know what he was doing. Much like George W.. Trump was a towel-snapping wiseacre, ridiculing and bullying those to whom he felt superior (most everyone). Trump would have you (the rubes in the Hinterlands) believe he got a loan from Daddy, and managed to turn mere bauble into billions. That fable is no more true than Trump's portrayal on a TV Reality show. It's all smoke and mirrors.
Con artists have been pulling this scam for ages. You pull into some bo-hunk burgh, with a lot of glam and glitter, impressing the bumpkins gathered. They entertain, then pull out the Magic Elixir, the panacea to all problems. The crowd goes crazy, delirious with visions of becoming as rich as the carny barker peddling this alcohol-laden stimulant. There's only one getting rich, and it ain't you.
So, Trumpians, you've gotten a whiff of Colonel Trump's Magic Elixir. What do you think? Are you still with this loser? Have you grown perhaps a tad skeptical? Maybe The Colonel is not all he said he was? Any doubts?
Well, Trumpets, keep betting on Trump. The longer you do the worse it's going to get. When eventually the bottom drops out, don't come looking for any help from we New York liberal elitists. You made your bed with this charlatan, you'll have to sleep with him.
DD
Manhattan
Con artists have been pulling this scam for ages. You pull into some bo-hunk burgh, with a lot of glam and glitter, impressing the bumpkins gathered. They entertain, then pull out the Magic Elixir, the panacea to all problems. The crowd goes crazy, delirious with visions of becoming as rich as the carny barker peddling this alcohol-laden stimulant. There's only one getting rich, and it ain't you.
So, Trumpians, you've gotten a whiff of Colonel Trump's Magic Elixir. What do you think? Are you still with this loser? Have you grown perhaps a tad skeptical? Maybe The Colonel is not all he said he was? Any doubts?
Well, Trumpets, keep betting on Trump. The longer you do the worse it's going to get. When eventually the bottom drops out, don't come looking for any help from we New York liberal elitists. You made your bed with this charlatan, you'll have to sleep with him.
DD
Manhattan
25
This writer should have listed current Fed rate (believe 0.5%?) what its expected to be, which likely meager 0.25% increase, and what the "multiplier" outlook this years infers...likely ZERO... till they have two more increasing..
The clock is ticking...its not racing with any SUBSTANCE economically, and to think that we're at "full" tilt regarding a 2.1% growth for this year, and we can't "race" our economy further without driving up inflation...
There's a far bigger STRUCTURAL job/manuf/energy and consumer buying effect...that's looming...and must be revised, one KEY is address with infrastructure and the green "collar" job economy...otherwise forget it...more Trumpian haze...both carbons and billowy smoke...;)
The clock is ticking...its not racing with any SUBSTANCE economically, and to think that we're at "full" tilt regarding a 2.1% growth for this year, and we can't "race" our economy further without driving up inflation...
There's a far bigger STRUCTURAL job/manuf/energy and consumer buying effect...that's looming...and must be revised, one KEY is address with infrastructure and the green "collar" job economy...otherwise forget it...more Trumpian haze...both carbons and billowy smoke...;)
The GOP and Drumf have no compunction to bring the American economy on the brink like W did. We need to stop this madness before it gets out of control.
#Bloodbath 2018.
#Bloodbath 2018.
41
Higher interest rates are going to crater the budget.
No they won't. It's the artificially low rates that obscure what the real economy wants, and has to do. Market forces, Comrade.
It'll crater the economy for those who want to shove sub-prime down the throats of good working Americans, again. I suspect you haven't read a thing about economics and only get your info source from Rush, Fox and the like.
It'll crater the economy for those who want to shove sub-prime down the throats of good working Americans, again. I suspect you haven't read a thing about economics and only get your info source from Rush, Fox and the like.
Hope and pray the Fed holds the line or we could soon find ourselves back in 1979 economic territory -- almost before you know it.
Trump, of course, will blame the Fed for not holdng the line, after he broke it.
Trump, of course, will blame the Fed for not holdng the line, after he broke it.
49
From where I stand we are back in 1979 economic territory -- few jobs and those that are available are paying much less than 10 years ago.
1
Siciliana, So you want the Government to raise Wages?
1
There is no mystery as to why Trump would want to spark inflation: real estate values rise disproportionately faster. Every time you hear Trump advocating a position, look for his monetary self interest and you will find the simple reason.
200
It's always simple if you are a simpleton.
1
Trump has been POTUS for all of seven weeks, and has been the beneficiary of the Obama Administration 'afterburn bump,' in the form of a largely reinvigorated economy that overcame four years of concerted efforts at sabotage by legislatively obstructive Republicans. Trump is fast to claim credit for the oxygen we breathe, the water in the world, and the economy inherited from his immediate predecessor. Trump is a mega-fraud.
Eight years ago, Obama inherited what was the worst downturn since the Great Depression, and turned it around.
Now we'll have Trump whining for deficit stimulus from the Federal Reserve, while playing his usual crony capitalism and pursuing the greatest Grand Theft of funds the world has seen since Putin stole $83,000,000 from the Russian people.
Trump will deliver an economic implosion on the West in pursuing his personal welfare. A war with Iran and $150 p/barrel oil is what is on Trump's agenda. Tillerson/Exxon/Mobile and Putin/Rusoil/Gazprom will benefit. The West will suffer. The Trump Clan will thrive. Chaos will reign.
That is what is on the agenda, and it is up to the American People and their duly elected representatives to recognize this clear and present danger and do something about it. That "something" should be to investigate Trump with an independent prosecutor (I hear Preet Bharara is free) and then pursue impeachment, trial and conviction of #TraitorTrump.
Eight years ago, Obama inherited what was the worst downturn since the Great Depression, and turned it around.
Now we'll have Trump whining for deficit stimulus from the Federal Reserve, while playing his usual crony capitalism and pursuing the greatest Grand Theft of funds the world has seen since Putin stole $83,000,000 from the Russian people.
Trump will deliver an economic implosion on the West in pursuing his personal welfare. A war with Iran and $150 p/barrel oil is what is on Trump's agenda. Tillerson/Exxon/Mobile and Putin/Rusoil/Gazprom will benefit. The West will suffer. The Trump Clan will thrive. Chaos will reign.
That is what is on the agenda, and it is up to the American People and their duly elected representatives to recognize this clear and present danger and do something about it. That "something" should be to investigate Trump with an independent prosecutor (I hear Preet Bharara is free) and then pursue impeachment, trial and conviction of #TraitorTrump.
335
Yes, much of this must be momentum from Obama's actions. The economy is huge and slow to react, like a large ship in motion.
However, much economic activity has a longer term prospective view, and so if expectations change, then economic activity will change. THAT component of what is happening is what Trump can claim. He over-claims. Complete denial of any effect is the opposite error.
However, much economic activity has a longer term prospective view, and so if expectations change, then economic activity will change. THAT component of what is happening is what Trump can claim. He over-claims. Complete denial of any effect is the opposite error.
2
Nice to see Putin's employment program is still paying rubles . . . Sardinia? or Sadinia? Could it be Slovenia? The Trump Dynasty should be hung from the highest branch for high-treason, and international fraud and consorting with terrorists. In Baku Ivanka conspired to launder money from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, a terrorist State. Wonderful clan the Trumps. LOL.
13
This must be a parody of a Putin Troll posting! Sardinia? "All NYT readers are fools." Hahaha, too perfectly troll, or John Barron himself.
8
Use to project future economics of US economy, the difference between Republican and Democrat governing.
PoliticsThatWork Change in Unemployment Rate by Party of President- Since 1945
Each party has held the presidency for the same number of years since 1945. During those years, the unemployment rate has risen 11.8% under Republican presidents and has fallen 7.2% under Democratic presidents. Unemployment has fallen during the overwhelming majority of Democratic years since 1949. Unemployment rose steadily under Republicans up until 1982, then fell during the remaining Reagan years, and then rose again under both Bush Presidents.
PoliticsThatWork Dow Jones Performance by the Party of the President
During the most recent 15 years during which Republicans have held the presidency, the value of the Dow has increased by 42%. During the Democratic presidencies, it has increased by 609%- 14.5 times faster. The average growth in the value of the Dow under Democrats during this period has been 14.75% and under Republicans it has been 5.11%.
PoliticsThatWork Change in Disposable Income Since 1930 by the Party of the President
In the 44 years that we have had Democratic presidents since 1930, the real per-capita disposable income has increased 271%. During the 40 years during which we have had Republican presidents, it has increased 44%. On average, it has increased 3.1% (after adjusting for inflation) under Democratic presidents and 1% under Republican presidents.
PoliticsThatWork Change in Unemployment Rate by Party of President- Since 1945
Each party has held the presidency for the same number of years since 1945. During those years, the unemployment rate has risen 11.8% under Republican presidents and has fallen 7.2% under Democratic presidents. Unemployment has fallen during the overwhelming majority of Democratic years since 1949. Unemployment rose steadily under Republicans up until 1982, then fell during the remaining Reagan years, and then rose again under both Bush Presidents.
PoliticsThatWork Dow Jones Performance by the Party of the President
During the most recent 15 years during which Republicans have held the presidency, the value of the Dow has increased by 42%. During the Democratic presidencies, it has increased by 609%- 14.5 times faster. The average growth in the value of the Dow under Democrats during this period has been 14.75% and under Republicans it has been 5.11%.
PoliticsThatWork Change in Disposable Income Since 1930 by the Party of the President
In the 44 years that we have had Democratic presidents since 1930, the real per-capita disposable income has increased 271%. During the 40 years during which we have had Republican presidents, it has increased 44%. On average, it has increased 3.1% (after adjusting for inflation) under Democratic presidents and 1% under Republican presidents.
9
How many times did he file for bankruptcy? Yeah, I don't think we should listen to him (too late, I know!).
3
So--when's he going to fire Yellen? and the rest of the Fed? because the economy isn't going his way at his speed at his command?
I have no doubt Mr. Trump desires higher inflation, higher interest rates, and higher mortgage interest rates. Isn't that how he got so rich? By taking on mortgage interest debt and using that to offset income so he could pay $0 income tax?
I'm looking forward again to mortgage ARMs with 11% interest rates just like we had during the Carter administration.
I'm looking forward again to mortgage ARMs with 11% interest rates just like we had during the Carter administration.
5
Part of the FED's reasoning has to be that they need to return interest rates to a level at which lowering interest rates can have some traction if and when the economy sputters. The closer we are to the zero lower bound, the less effective reducing interest rates will be. They certainly must be wary That their only option could be another period of Quantitative Easing. And we are currently experiencing a historically long period of growth and job creation. I don't think this round of interest rate hikes will be entirely premised on the need to cool down an overheated economy.
1
Donald Trump is becoming the next Richard Nixon. Under Nixon (and Jimmy Carter) inflation soared. The 1970 dollar is worth 15 cents today. Trump, unlike President Obama, will be known as the "inflation president." Inflation is a tax -- a tax not passed by Congress.
6
Trump is another rich white guy who was born on third base and tells everyone he hit a triple. Thank you President Obama. We can only hope this guy gets picked off third.
13
If Trump wants faster growth he should introduce single payer health care, student loan forgiveness and a trillion dollar direct funding of infrastructure development. And forget about the Fed. Just let them raise interest rates when and if there is wage related inflation. If the Congress had put some effort into stimulating demand instead of relying on the fed quantitatively easing stock buy backs, we would have recovered a lot sooner - just what the Republicans did not want to do.
15
Trump would be well served if he had a set of economic advisors and economists as part of his team, unfortunately he does not so he fumbles from "idea" to "idea" just like the hapless cartoon character Mr. Magoo.
The reality is that at 4.7% unemployment the economy is at full employment. GDP is growing at an annualized pace of 2-2.5% but if Trump wants to move this needle he's going to quickly realize that it's going to take more than wearing a bumper sticker baseball cap and shooting his mouth off.
Honestly, Trump has nowhere to go but down. Obama left him a stable economy, full employment, the highest level of US manufacturing in history, the highest number of new businesses created in history, and rising wages. For all those Obama haters out there, lets see how you feel in 36 months.
The reality is that at 4.7% unemployment the economy is at full employment. GDP is growing at an annualized pace of 2-2.5% but if Trump wants to move this needle he's going to quickly realize that it's going to take more than wearing a bumper sticker baseball cap and shooting his mouth off.
Honestly, Trump has nowhere to go but down. Obama left him a stable economy, full employment, the highest level of US manufacturing in history, the highest number of new businesses created in history, and rising wages. For all those Obama haters out there, lets see how you feel in 36 months.
78
Well since you offered, they're on the READY to blame Obama if/when POTUS Trump fails.
I told my family (the numbers you cited) are POTUS Trump's starting line, he'll be lucky if he can make Par.
I just don't see him being Lucky.
I told my family (the numbers you cited) are POTUS Trump's starting line, he'll be lucky if he can make Par.
I just don't see him being Lucky.
2
Economics?? This all strikes me as double talk --growing economy = inflation...
Are we really talking about the run away stock market which higher interest rates might in fact moderate? (And then there all of the tax implications of "investment?" -- or how to get rich by hedging your bets? 15$/hour minimum wage-- for doing what? (meantime higher hidden regressive taxes on things like gasoline!) Oh, OK we're worrying about Congress raising the debt ceiling and building the wall ( a really important part of the infrastructure!). (OK that one is paid fo-- supposedly by cutting other budgets -- but other projects would seem to be financed by debt.) Highway projects in many parts of the country really are make-work projects-- but God is in the details and things do not get discussed but we pay for it. Should I care? (BTW the Fed's actions have directly led to the over sold IMO stock market... and Yellen should have acted years ago. Interest rates paid by banks should never be less than 4% IMO.)
Are we really talking about the run away stock market which higher interest rates might in fact moderate? (And then there all of the tax implications of "investment?" -- or how to get rich by hedging your bets? 15$/hour minimum wage-- for doing what? (meantime higher hidden regressive taxes on things like gasoline!) Oh, OK we're worrying about Congress raising the debt ceiling and building the wall ( a really important part of the infrastructure!). (OK that one is paid fo-- supposedly by cutting other budgets -- but other projects would seem to be financed by debt.) Highway projects in many parts of the country really are make-work projects-- but God is in the details and things do not get discussed but we pay for it. Should I care? (BTW the Fed's actions have directly led to the over sold IMO stock market... and Yellen should have acted years ago. Interest rates paid by banks should never be less than 4% IMO.)
1
Janet Yellen and the Board of the Federal Reserve are trained economists and experienced bankers who understand economic activity, as well as any human can. Donald Trump flies by the seat of his pants, where his brain is located, and relies on information that mysteriously comes to him through unnamed sources, all or most of which have been proven to be hallucinations. The Federal Reserve has kept this economy on track for the past decade. Under no circumstances should we let this delusional president interfere with the Fed's control of monetary policy. Anyone who believes that Donald Trump is such a successful businessman that he knows more than the Fed needs to take a look at his tax returns for the past decade.
55
The real question is: how badly does Ms. Yellen want her job? Does she want to stay the long haul, go quietly, or get pushed out the Bharara way? If she wants to stay, she should demur on rate increases at least until Trump appointees are on board. Fiscal is the only choice on the menu these days. All you monetary joy-stickers, watch CNBC or something.
1
The fed is more independent than fed prosecutors are.
5
Watching CNBC is like watching a continuous loop ad for Trump!
2
At the first hint that the economy is slowing Trump will blame the Fed, after he, and almost every other Republican in Congress, spent the past two years imploring the Fed to raise rates, because they felt Obama's economy was getting an unfair boost. Meanwhile, Trump is happy to take credit for a good February jobs report even though the economy has added an average of 215,000 jobs each month since last May. Karma will catch-up to Trump, probably by year's end. He told monstrous lies about the "actual unemployment rate" during the campaign and now he embraces the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But lying always has negative consequences in politics, which makes Trump his own worst enemy. I don't know how said consequences manifest exactly, but a collision between Trump's policies and the reality of our economy seems certain. And then we'll see just how un-Presidential Trump can truly be.
14
Trump wants faster growth, Actually, he wants lower taxes for corporations and the wealthy, and decreased environmental, consumer, and labor protections; leading not to higher wages nor better working or living conditions ......but to faster growth in overflowing bank accounts.
Companies are struggling to find skilled employees. Meanwhile, Trump plans on hiring 15,000 new border agents. Quickly. His administration is operating with a bare bones contingent of civil servants, and there are currently over 100 federal court vacancies. Somehow, this doesn't seem like a recipe for hiring the best people for the job, nor any real case management after the fact.
Companies are struggling to find skilled employees. Meanwhile, Trump plans on hiring 15,000 new border agents. Quickly. His administration is operating with a bare bones contingent of civil servants, and there are currently over 100 federal court vacancies. Somehow, this doesn't seem like a recipe for hiring the best people for the job, nor any real case management after the fact.
13
Another set-up for the Unwise One to have someome
to blame when his dreamy bluster (read:con) falls
flat.
to blame when his dreamy bluster (read:con) falls
flat.
2
Emperor Donnie is an impatient man.
He ran his personal businesses that way. He did not plan well, and has had 6 major bankruptcies.
He thinks he can run the US Government like it was another one of his personal businesses, and he is using it to line his own pockets, in contravention of the US Constitution and the lease on the Old Post Office building where he has his Washington hotel. I expect that he is in for a rude awakening. Maybe he will wake up in jail, where he belongs.
He ran his personal businesses that way. He did not plan well, and has had 6 major bankruptcies.
He thinks he can run the US Government like it was another one of his personal businesses, and he is using it to line his own pockets, in contravention of the US Constitution and the lease on the Old Post Office building where he has his Washington hotel. I expect that he is in for a rude awakening. Maybe he will wake up in jail, where he belongs.
98
Holy cow. At about 1:55 PM, Sean Spicer was asked if Emperor Donnie still believes that millions voted illegally, and he confirmed that Donnie the Dunce does believe that totally unsupported lie, which every state Secretary of State who has been asked has said is untrue in that state. Amazing. Un-freakin'-believable.
Right now, the President is happy to take credit for - implicitly or explicitly - the good jobs reports and all the other rosy economic news.
I suspect that as soon as it begins turning sour, he'll blame the economic conditions on someone else, Obama, perhaps.
I suspect that as soon as it begins turning sour, he'll blame the economic conditions on someone else, Obama, perhaps.
8
Not trying to be a jerk here, but I'm genuinely curious if POTUS could describe the basics of monetary policy.
131
Yeah, no. Trump can't find his way out of a paper bag, except by going to the dark end and punching.
3
After the 20% tariff nonsense was broached, dude was reported to have called someone up to explain to him what all this talk on cable was about the value of the dollar. Stunning. In any event, it is clear that dude is not to good at basic math. Can you say "St. Reagan Redux"? Yuge defense spending increases PLUS one trillion dollar infrastructure/jobs spending MINUS yuge tax cuts for wealthy and their corps EQUALS trumpworld fantasy. Can't wait.
4
Anyone who is invested in making sure we have a valid, qualified leader is not a jerk. Rather,those who looked the other way in 2016 when it was OBVIOUS that this candidate was the antithesis of qualified...those are the jerks.
2
Well, grandfather Trump did run a brothel in Canada during the Yukon gold rush. The man's business practices are well worth a few minutes on Google.
8
How soon before we (HAVE To) add, "Fake" Recession to the Lexicon?
Or would it be deemed an "Alternate" Recession?
Or a Fully "Vetted" Recession?
Or would it be deemed an "Alternate" Recession?
Or a Fully "Vetted" Recession?
4
Of course Trump wants to move quickly. Cash in on the uptick in economic gains associated with the Trump brand, reward foreign and industry leaders and lobbyists who enrich your brand (and thus, your bank account) and then get the heck out before too many people discover they've been had.
It's what he's spent a lifetime doing. Why would that change?
It's what he's spent a lifetime doing. Why would that change?
72
Being on the wrong side of trump and the right side of history is the same thing.
99
Hmmm, I dunno...would you rather trust a man whose father bought him a spot in a new business school and uses bankruptcy as business as usual or a group of highly educated and experienced economists?
294
Its laughable that people will see any resistance by the Fed as an attack on the President rather than an exercise of their expertise on the matter, which of course far, faaaaaaaaaaaaaar exceeds what Trump understands.
15
The growth of the economy does not happen overnight. We have our previous president Barak Obama to thank for programs and policies that slowly brought us back from a financial crisis. President Trump entered office with a country in a very different economic landscape than Obama inherited,
139
make that: "programs and policies that slowly [and sustainably] brought us back from a financial crisis."
7
Not only that, but Trump has done NOTHING so far that could possibly have had any significant effect on economic numbers. Even if he had done such things, the effects could not possibly have been seen so soon. The most he has done is sustain the rising DOW seen under Obama, mainly on spec of financiers salivating over policy initiatives identified by Trump. (Remember, you can make a LOT of money if you're smart and stocks go way up OR way down.)
1
The Fed has more patience, fortitude, and Teflon in a clipped toenail than the entire Trump administration.
It will be interesting to see how it all works out.
It will be interesting to see how it all works out.
73
Donald Trump looks poised to single-handedly bring about a new recession as he continues to treat the country like he did his failing businesses. For Trump, everything needs to be bigger and faster. Hopefully, when he destroys the U.S. economy, he won't be allowed to make a profit and walk away.
170
He's already made a profit, will continue to do so, and when he does walk away, we'll be left holding the bill.
2
Please. His kids say business is booming.
Every weekend is a free advertising experience as he visits all his "resorts".
His daughter and son-in-law sit in to every meeting and are borrowing 100s of millions from banks that Trump regulates in some way.
This is a total disaster. The US looks ridiculous.
Every weekend is a free advertising experience as he visits all his "resorts".
His daughter and son-in-law sit in to every meeting and are borrowing 100s of millions from banks that Trump regulates in some way.
This is a total disaster. The US looks ridiculous.
3
Recessions are a normal part of the Business Cycle. Study it. It is called Economics 101.
The Federal Reserve has PROPPED up the economy via a massive 8 year printing press money policy, zero interest rates and massive "QE" buying program.
Recessions typically follow a 3 to 4 or 5 year cycle of expansion.
This is normal and good.
The problem is that the Fed keeps making the expansions longer and higher and then causes the recessions to be longer and deeper.
Presidents do not cause recessions.
When the Federal Reserve returns to normal sane central banking policies and practices there will necessarily be a recession. We are several years over due for one but the Fed has manipulated things to hold that off. For now. But that too will change.
The Federal Reserve has PROPPED up the economy via a massive 8 year printing press money policy, zero interest rates and massive "QE" buying program.
Recessions typically follow a 3 to 4 or 5 year cycle of expansion.
This is normal and good.
The problem is that the Fed keeps making the expansions longer and higher and then causes the recessions to be longer and deeper.
Presidents do not cause recessions.
When the Federal Reserve returns to normal sane central banking policies and practices there will necessarily be a recession. We are several years over due for one but the Fed has manipulated things to hold that off. For now. But that too will change.
1
Naw. Didn't think so.