I greatly appreciate the return to economic analysis and an end to terminal whinging over HRC, Red scares, and James Comey. On with the show!
15
Serves them right!! The Republican leaders they insist on electing failed to understand that the Industrial era is dying and instead of getting ready for the Technological era, they kept holding on those good old days, for white people. Those manufacturing jobs are not coming back. If what you do can be done using computers and robots, you are done unless you get yourself trained and educated for the new Era. Hear me truck, taxi, limo drivers??? because you are next.
67
When Republicans cut taxes on the rich, will the 0.1% invest in the Rust Belt? Will Trump&co build hotels and golf courses in Flint, Michigan? No way. They'll put their money mostly overseas, and in blue states like California and New York, and in winning red states like Texas. The Rust Belt will be left behind. And that will be fine with Republican ideologues. It's how capitalism is supposed to work, right?
87
The "amiable dunce" was a forerunner to the present "Dunce"? No, the "amiable Dunce" created the "Radical Republican Terrorists" who elected the present "Dunce".
32
Mr. Kruger, you should consider taking all of the snarky digs at Trump (and all other politicians with whom you disagree) out of your articles. When you say things like he has a three second attention span, it detracts from any logical argument you might be making.
For the die hard, irrational Trump haters who subscribe to the NYT and are functioning on emotion, it makes your column popular. And it increases the probability that the partisan divide will widen, making it less and less likely for there to be any middle ground.
For Democrats who remember fondly the days of Reagan and his collaboration with Tip O'Neil that stabilized Medicare and Social Security with tax increases, even when they laugh along with you they realize that something doesn't feel right.
For conservatives, it is obvious that facts do not matter to you and your obvious partisanship is biasing any opinion you express.
You created Trump. You make five snarky comments, tell five lies by misrepresenting something he said or quoting out of context. The one accurate negative statement gets ignored.
When Obama was elected, conservatives uniformly and accurately said he did not have any executive experience. He demonstrated that he lacked the ability to build a consensus by insulting Republicans, SCOTUS, ignorant of the fact that he would need help in the future. That he could not even peel off the maniac Senators who are more liberal than most Democrats is a measure of his poor skills.
For the die hard, irrational Trump haters who subscribe to the NYT and are functioning on emotion, it makes your column popular. And it increases the probability that the partisan divide will widen, making it less and less likely for there to be any middle ground.
For Democrats who remember fondly the days of Reagan and his collaboration with Tip O'Neil that stabilized Medicare and Social Security with tax increases, even when they laugh along with you they realize that something doesn't feel right.
For conservatives, it is obvious that facts do not matter to you and your obvious partisanship is biasing any opinion you express.
You created Trump. You make five snarky comments, tell five lies by misrepresenting something he said or quoting out of context. The one accurate negative statement gets ignored.
When Obama was elected, conservatives uniformly and accurately said he did not have any executive experience. He demonstrated that he lacked the ability to build a consensus by insulting Republicans, SCOTUS, ignorant of the fact that he would need help in the future. That he could not even peel off the maniac Senators who are more liberal than most Democrats is a measure of his poor skills.
40
When are we going to address income inequality. If its in the budget to pay CEOs and executives more as businesses do better, why is it NOT possible to pay workers more - even when it CAN be done elsewhere for more cheaply. I just need someone to explain this to me once and for all. Don't give me the 'best talent' reason.
113
Trade isn't the real enemy.
CEOs have options for their cash: M&A, Lobbying/Taxes, R&D & Stock Buybacks/Dividends. Only R&D grows jobs, wages & GDP. It's expensive and down the road in terms of timing so they default to quick stuff like Stock Buybacks b/c it boosts their own income.
Those CEOs & their ahole buddies in PE have created the financialization of America.
Look there rather than trade for your villain.
CEOs have options for their cash: M&A, Lobbying/Taxes, R&D & Stock Buybacks/Dividends. Only R&D grows jobs, wages & GDP. It's expensive and down the road in terms of timing so they default to quick stuff like Stock Buybacks b/c it boosts their own income.
Those CEOs & their ahole buddies in PE have created the financialization of America.
Look there rather than trade for your villain.
92
"And the biggest losers, as with health care, will be white working-class voters who were foolish enough to believe that Donald Trump was on their side."
And once again NYT waits unitl the last sentence to make the point. You guys did the same thing today in the main Editorial piece. Wait until the LAST sentence to hit it home? What school of journalism teaches to put the reader through the mill and only allow those to get to the finish line to be the ones who hear the brass ring? How many people do you think start but don't finish an article because it's so water logged with technical facts without any matrix to sort out the substrate? Does Paul forget that we need context for his technicalities? Does the NYT Ed Board not realize that the vast majority of its readers skim headlines before diving in? The media MUST make those clowns who voted for Trump to experience Buyer's Remorse early and often. Get it? Don't preach technical parameters while avoiding the entire reason for doing that analysis in the first place: context and correction. We need to let everyone realize that the mess we are in is solely due to the ignorant voter who continues to be taken in by fake news. NYT isn't helping by forcing the reader to mine the NYT articles for what they're actually trying to say.
And once again NYT waits unitl the last sentence to make the point. You guys did the same thing today in the main Editorial piece. Wait until the LAST sentence to hit it home? What school of journalism teaches to put the reader through the mill and only allow those to get to the finish line to be the ones who hear the brass ring? How many people do you think start but don't finish an article because it's so water logged with technical facts without any matrix to sort out the substrate? Does Paul forget that we need context for his technicalities? Does the NYT Ed Board not realize that the vast majority of its readers skim headlines before diving in? The media MUST make those clowns who voted for Trump to experience Buyer's Remorse early and often. Get it? Don't preach technical parameters while avoiding the entire reason for doing that analysis in the first place: context and correction. We need to let everyone realize that the mess we are in is solely due to the ignorant voter who continues to be taken in by fake news. NYT isn't helping by forcing the reader to mine the NYT articles for what they're actually trying to say.
23
Mexico was the favorite destination last year with a record 25.9 million American visits, up 24% from the previous year, according to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Commerce.
Why? Because of NAFTA. In 1996 the total was only 3.9 million.
If you were one of the few that traveled to Mexico before NAFTA, you would know that Mexico had no consumer market, no vibrant economic growth, no new domestic opportunities.
NAFTA created an enormous market for US goods. In 1985 we did just $13 billion in exports, last year it was $236 billion.
What did NAFTA do, it created our third largest trading partner and our favorite foreign destination.
Yesterday, I canceled my annual trip to Mexico.
To satisfy anger over automation and cheap labor, we are going to war with our trading partner and friends; this is not going to turn out well for anyone.
Why? Because of NAFTA. In 1996 the total was only 3.9 million.
If you were one of the few that traveled to Mexico before NAFTA, you would know that Mexico had no consumer market, no vibrant economic growth, no new domestic opportunities.
NAFTA created an enormous market for US goods. In 1985 we did just $13 billion in exports, last year it was $236 billion.
What did NAFTA do, it created our third largest trading partner and our favorite foreign destination.
Yesterday, I canceled my annual trip to Mexico.
To satisfy anger over automation and cheap labor, we are going to war with our trading partner and friends; this is not going to turn out well for anyone.
45
Hey, Donald Trump is very smart. He has a very good brain and good words. Just ask him.
Actually, don't bother, he's only too happy to brag about it without being asked.
And he went to Wharton, in Philly, where, according to Trump Alternative "Facts", crime has exploded when according to REAL facts, it's gone done significantly in the last 15 years.
So there, Nobel Laureate and renowned Professor Krugman!
(If anyone thinks this is dripping with sarcasm, it's purely intentional)
Actually, don't bother, he's only too happy to brag about it without being asked.
And he went to Wharton, in Philly, where, according to Trump Alternative "Facts", crime has exploded when according to REAL facts, it's gone done significantly in the last 15 years.
So there, Nobel Laureate and renowned Professor Krugman!
(If anyone thinks this is dripping with sarcasm, it's purely intentional)
27
Among all the other factors, the never-ending quest to boost productivity means we are putting a huge effort into eliminating jobs, regardless of trade, the strength of the dollar, etc.
We either have to think about government make-work jobs, like infrastructure building, Civilian Conservation Corps type programs, and the like, or we have to go further by thinking about who benefits from all that increasing productivity. What good is cheaper stuff if you have no job and therefore no money to buy it?
If the economy keeps growing, but the slice of the bigger pie only ends up in fewer and fewer hands, that's unsustainable. We really need to think about a Universal Basic Income, so everyone benefits from the economy. Yes - redistribution.
You can't blame people for being too lazy to work if you're also doing everything you can to eliminate jobs and drive wages down.
We either have to think about government make-work jobs, like infrastructure building, Civilian Conservation Corps type programs, and the like, or we have to go further by thinking about who benefits from all that increasing productivity. What good is cheaper stuff if you have no job and therefore no money to buy it?
If the economy keeps growing, but the slice of the bigger pie only ends up in fewer and fewer hands, that's unsustainable. We really need to think about a Universal Basic Income, so everyone benefits from the economy. Yes - redistribution.
You can't blame people for being too lazy to work if you're also doing everything you can to eliminate jobs and drive wages down.
41
Keep in mind that after the Reagan quotas, and UAW activism, Honda and then the other Japanese automakers started building their cars in the USA. Of course, almost all were non-union and in the sunbelt.
20
It's easy to point the finger of blame at the new president, or at Ronald Reagan. But what about all the intervening years of Democratic presidencies? It seems to me as if the Democratic Party is in total decline, yet you and the New York Times are silent about that. Too bad we didn't get Bernie Sanders - he of "unicorn" proposals, in your words.
19
How many of those “rusted-out factories scattered like tombstones across the landscape” moved not to Mexico or China but to the anti-union South?
52
I googled "US international trade statistics" and discovered that the official source was the United States Census Bureau. So perhaps Paul is wrong. The figures should be looking better any day now.
8
The central problem for Republicans has always been how to split the non-plutocrat vote. Racism and abortion used to split off enough votes. The Trump innovation was to add xenophobia and more racism to counter the shrinking base.
The wall is a case study in GOP strategic thinking. If immigration was really the issue then one would not do this in the first place. If a symbolic effort was the point you would not "make Mexico pay for it". The paying part is actually logical nonsense. Why not have Mexico pay for the entire border security? Why not charge Russia for the cost of NATO? The point is not logic but humiliation. The GOP needs the votes of non-millionaires and poor white paranoid narcissists are ripe for the picking. Blame foreigners. They take your jobs. They force drugs on you. They rape your women. They make you afraid. They live off your taxes. They are taking your country. The answer is to assert our dominance. Not just hit them with a pipe but make them hit themselves with a pipe. Yes you are powerless and your town is collapsing but we offer you vindictiveness.
The Republican party is about nihilism. Splitting and re-splitting the country, pitting different groups of poor people against each other, destroying the country, none of it matters relative to tax avoidance. America is just a place where some of your houses are. When Trump uses other people's money to buy casinos and ends up rich while investors go bankrupt, you have the plutocrat model for America.
The wall is a case study in GOP strategic thinking. If immigration was really the issue then one would not do this in the first place. If a symbolic effort was the point you would not "make Mexico pay for it". The paying part is actually logical nonsense. Why not have Mexico pay for the entire border security? Why not charge Russia for the cost of NATO? The point is not logic but humiliation. The GOP needs the votes of non-millionaires and poor white paranoid narcissists are ripe for the picking. Blame foreigners. They take your jobs. They force drugs on you. They rape your women. They make you afraid. They live off your taxes. They are taking your country. The answer is to assert our dominance. Not just hit them with a pipe but make them hit themselves with a pipe. Yes you are powerless and your town is collapsing but we offer you vindictiveness.
The Republican party is about nihilism. Splitting and re-splitting the country, pitting different groups of poor people against each other, destroying the country, none of it matters relative to tax avoidance. America is just a place where some of your houses are. When Trump uses other people's money to buy casinos and ends up rich while investors go bankrupt, you have the plutocrat model for America.
97
Gosh, and here I sit waiting for my family back in Western PA to call me with the news of new steel mills sprouting along the Monongahela and mines re-opening in Somerset County. Good thing that I'm not holding my breath. I am, however, puzzled that the "ring counties" surrounding Pittsburgh fell for Trump's empty promises that will certainly go unfulfilled.
51
Well said, sadly the reality we are facing now, with a despicable ignoramus at the helm...and his faithful acolytes unwilling to stop Trump's stupidity by talking some sense into his three minute attention span. Trouble ahead, its magnitude unraveling, scary to contemplate, and in urgent need to contain. The question is, do we have the stamina, and courage, to stop this irresponsibly unscrupulous thug...before we are driven into his stinky swamp of make-believe nonsense?
39
Donald Trump's success is no secret. It has been taught to school kids & he took it to heart: KISS. Keep It Simple Stupid. The Donald has made Simpletons and Stupid look good. USA. USA. USA.
29
Time to be direct, terrifying as that is. America's 45th President is a sociopath. In Trump world only Trump's endless needs exist. In Trump world there can be only contempt, bullying, and hatred towards others. He cares no more for the white working class than he does for Mexicans. People like the British Prime Minister are fools to think they can rely on such a man. Sociopath fits. Time to say it.
92
Why am I going to have to pay more for strawberries, blackberries, tomatoes and the like to pay for a wall? Maybe, given the elasticity of the concept of facts, can we just pretend we built the wall?
87
The role of the GOP in enabling this behavior is critical in this analysis. The hypocracy is astounding and the fact that the public that fills the house and senate with these folks is by extension, also hypocritical needs to be pointed out. A good read on this topic is in this edition of the NY Times (https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/01/26/us/politics/trump-republican-retre...
Maybe the silver lining of this GOP malfeasance will be to make recycling a decent business and landfills will fill up more slowly.
Maybe the silver lining of this GOP malfeasance will be to make recycling a decent business and landfills will fill up more slowly.
14
Dr. K I fear that you are right and you forget Donald Trump is the smartest man in America who won is a landslide in the greatest movement since the beginning of Christianity. Ingorance uber ales.
America is being poisoned by the Trump regime’s blind bull in a china shop attitude as the ignorant and selfish cheer. Make America a banana republic. With Republicans we always had a plutocracy and with Trump we have a corrupt self dealing kleptocracy. The wrecking crew has arrived. We are in the process of a fascist takeover of our government and the choice may be choosing a government that does not work and one that is doing painful harm to the people. Wake up Democrats there must be 3 or 4 Republicans in the Senate who are patriots, at least I hope so.
America is being poisoned by the Trump regime’s blind bull in a china shop attitude as the ignorant and selfish cheer. Make America a banana republic. With Republicans we always had a plutocracy and with Trump we have a corrupt self dealing kleptocracy. The wrecking crew has arrived. We are in the process of a fascist takeover of our government and the choice may be choosing a government that does not work and one that is doing painful harm to the people. Wake up Democrats there must be 3 or 4 Republicans in the Senate who are patriots, at least I hope so.
20
The silence of the Deficit Scolds is deafening after eight long years of continuous siren; I'm shocked!
9
I for one am looking forward to the day when Mr. Trump relocates bus loads of unemployed Appalachian white men to California to pick fruit.
19
Krugman has no answers, only periodic whines about his latest boogeyman. Under Obama, infrastructure spending was never enough - in fact Krugman prayed for a terrorist attack on the United States. Now under Trump, any mention of infrastructure spending is met with doomsday scenarios on the debt. Make up you mind, Pauley.
7
Hey, just use alternative economic models and all will be well!
"Nuance" is not in Donald's very limited vocabulary.
"Nuance" is not in Donald's very limited vocabulary.
1
Look at countries like Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, etc. They have faced the same globalization and they don't have the rust belt problem we do.
They believe in government and have been retraining their people for years for the high end manufacturing skills they need.
We are just now beginning to talk about this in our country.
They believe in government and have been retraining their people for years for the high end manufacturing skills they need.
We are just now beginning to talk about this in our country.
14
Making the Rust Belt Rustier is correct that Trump is Reagan redux, with even worse results. But calling "white working-class voters" "foolish" is the Clinton Democrat condescension that cost Hillary the election. (Comey, Putin, and voter suppression couldn't push Trump over the top without another basis.)
Sure, WWC victims were wrong to believe Trump would fix their problems. But foolish? They're right: they've been screwed for decades, right that politicians haven't even recognized their plight, other than a few pieties about "retraining." Democrats believe they're the party of the working class, but haven't talked or acted like it for ages.)
I couldn't get my head around it: Bernie legions voted for Trump? It's not about ideology, it's about the WWC hearing somebody recognize their real problems. I don't know what NAFTA's net impact was or if TPP would help or hurt. But Democrats should fight for good jobs for the WWC. Let's start by tackling the horrendous backlog in infrastructure. It will cost trillions, creating many of the good jobs the WWC needs.
Until Democrats hear these WWC victims and start doing something about it, until we stop telling them that they're "foolish" (ie- stupid), we will continue to lose elections to demagogic Republicans like Donald Trump.
Sure, WWC victims were wrong to believe Trump would fix their problems. But foolish? They're right: they've been screwed for decades, right that politicians haven't even recognized their plight, other than a few pieties about "retraining." Democrats believe they're the party of the working class, but haven't talked or acted like it for ages.)
I couldn't get my head around it: Bernie legions voted for Trump? It's not about ideology, it's about the WWC hearing somebody recognize their real problems. I don't know what NAFTA's net impact was or if TPP would help or hurt. But Democrats should fight for good jobs for the WWC. Let's start by tackling the horrendous backlog in infrastructure. It will cost trillions, creating many of the good jobs the WWC needs.
Until Democrats hear these WWC victims and start doing something about it, until we stop telling them that they're "foolish" (ie- stupid), we will continue to lose elections to demagogic Republicans like Donald Trump.
11
While I generally found myself nodding in gloomy agreement with Mr. Krugman's article, I must take exception to one comments, which seems to represent an effort to "normalize" our Dear Leader. When he writes of "his three-minute attention span", Mr. Krugman is crediting him with an ability to concentrate for almost as long as most Americans. However, it seems clear that our Dear Leader's thoughts come in short bursts of a minute or less, which are then left to posterity as tweets. His attention span is as long as that of a fruit fly, and to credit him with anything more is to treat our Dear Leader as a normal American. Nothing is normal about him, and members of the press must be constantly vigilant to avoid giving him undeserved credit.
15
Regardless of how you may feel towards President Trump, I have to say, I appreciate at least the effort on his part to address the needs of a sizable segment of our populace. Mr. Obama never seemed very passionate about this issue, or Krugman"s candidate,Hillary with her insensitive campaign slogan, "I'm With Me", I mean "I With Her" when it should have been "I'm With YOU", and her pro TPP stance, which was a NAFTA trade deal on steroids. Record Dow number, record corporate profits, and stagnant wages are real, and were never addressed by the Democrats, the worker's party, or of course by the Republicans. So it is no surprise that the one person who dared to address the issue won.
9
"Funny, isn’t it, how all the deficit scolds have gone quiet?"
Just like they were while Bush was running up the debt right up until Obama took office and began operating under essentially the exact same budget. Its almost like there's a pattern here....
Just like they were while Bush was running up the debt right up until Obama took office and began operating under essentially the exact same budget. Its almost like there's a pattern here....
16
And the white, working class voter will look at the one job created and trumpeted by Trump while ignoring the 9 jobs lost, while Trump claims truth is "false news." This battle will not be won with facts.
14
While Trump's nihilistic policies will benefit no one, Krugman fails to acknowledge that so-called free trade distributes its benefits unevenly. Many who voted for Trump were voting against deindustrialization. They got the diagnosis right -- their pain is real -- and are hardly alone in prescribing quack remedies.
We know the income benefits of globalization have accrued at the top of the wage spectrum. All gains went to the top 20%, most to the top 10%, most of that concentrated in the top 1%, most of that in the top 0.1%. That's a fact, see epi.org.
How does that fact affect the Conscience of a Liberal? Not one whit!
Not once has Krugman ever mentioned a plan to deal with the inequitable outcomes of globalization. On these pages, globalization is inevitable, and good. Is you're a loser -- which, apart from lower prices, we almost all are -- that's OK, because on average we're all winners! Yay!
It seems to me the dynamism of the economy today makes it impossible to plan a career. Who can tell today's college graduate what the new Plastics is? When a twenty-year career is shipped overseas or computerized, why is sucking it up and suffering through the inevitable result? Why does the government not compensate the loser from the proceeds of the winner?
If Krugman wants to champion globalization and liberalism, he should explain how to make them compatible.
We know the income benefits of globalization have accrued at the top of the wage spectrum. All gains went to the top 20%, most to the top 10%, most of that concentrated in the top 1%, most of that in the top 0.1%. That's a fact, see epi.org.
How does that fact affect the Conscience of a Liberal? Not one whit!
Not once has Krugman ever mentioned a plan to deal with the inequitable outcomes of globalization. On these pages, globalization is inevitable, and good. Is you're a loser -- which, apart from lower prices, we almost all are -- that's OK, because on average we're all winners! Yay!
It seems to me the dynamism of the economy today makes it impossible to plan a career. Who can tell today's college graduate what the new Plastics is? When a twenty-year career is shipped overseas or computerized, why is sucking it up and suffering through the inevitable result? Why does the government not compensate the loser from the proceeds of the winner?
If Krugman wants to champion globalization and liberalism, he should explain how to make them compatible.
16
You have already lost the argument. The chuckleheads who voted for Trump either don't care or cannot understand.
32
For anyone who likes well written, long form journalism there is an article on Vox by Bradford DeLong that does a very nice job of explaining the economic impact of NAFTA and other trade deals. I've posted the link below...
http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/1/24/14363148/trade-deals-nafta-wto...
http://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/1/24/14363148/trade-deals-nafta-wto...
4
Trump ushers in America's zirconia age ... shiny to some, phony to all. No diamonds here, just the rough.
5
November 2018 can't come quickly enough, if we are still alive.
Trump had best have his doctors on hand because the pain will be immense.
The Dimocrats had best have an idea or two in their bb brains and some serious new leadership.
Chuck,Nancy, Clintons,and Pocahontas need to tossed to the curb.
The proper question will be "Hillary who?"
Trump had best have his doctors on hand because the pain will be immense.
The Dimocrats had best have an idea or two in their bb brains and some serious new leadership.
Chuck,Nancy, Clintons,and Pocahontas need to tossed to the curb.
The proper question will be "Hillary who?"
4
Just to add to this column: we must always remember that it is not just Trump. Remember the names of these men who have betrayed us all: Steve Bannon. Mike Pence. Paul Ryan. Mitch McConnell. And all the other Republican sycophants rolling over to let Trump do whatever he wants so that they can push legislation that robs us of our country, knowing he will sign for a cheap compliment.
12
"And the biggest losers ... will be ... voters who were foolish enough to believe that Donald Trump was on their side."
Just as much, however, those voters believed that Clinton, The Establishment, etc, etc, were not only not on their side but, in fact, actively working against them.
You can tell the Trumpers why Trump won't solve their problems, or will make them worse, but their answer is "But the others have not solved my problems and they have made them worse" ... so, as Trump himself said, "what have we got to lose?"
These feelings and beliefs may be misguided, wrong, fanciful, or just plain dopey ... but they are still strongly held. Unless and until the problems that the Trump voters face (or think they face or fear they will face or ...) can be substantially addressed and alleviated, comments like this are so much bloviation, choir preaching, and echo-chamber-echoing.
Just as much, however, those voters believed that Clinton, The Establishment, etc, etc, were not only not on their side but, in fact, actively working against them.
You can tell the Trumpers why Trump won't solve their problems, or will make them worse, but their answer is "But the others have not solved my problems and they have made them worse" ... so, as Trump himself said, "what have we got to lose?"
These feelings and beliefs may be misguided, wrong, fanciful, or just plain dopey ... but they are still strongly held. Unless and until the problems that the Trump voters face (or think they face or fear they will face or ...) can be substantially addressed and alleviated, comments like this are so much bloviation, choir preaching, and echo-chamber-echoing.
12
finally a columnist calling the 'folks' who voted for this contemptible man by their proper names....foolish.
12
Thank you so much, Paul Krugman, for being knowledgeable, truthful, articulate, and persistent.
14
Paul, you supported the lady in a $30K jacket, while telling those whom you hoped would support her, that $9 was better than $15. The price on a weeks worth of Charmin yesterday at Target was $15.99, over 1/40th of that wage. And, you can't understand the dilemma in the Rust Belt? My neighbor worked twenty three years at the box factory. When they left, he was left, at the age of fifty to start all over in a town that offers only a job at the school (and they are not hiring) or Walmart.
10
I remember the day, a payday, years ago, when I was in a teachers' lounge in an elementary school in North Dakota. One of the teachers took a long look at the check and announced, "This Reagonomics isn't all it was cracked up to be."
As they say, deja vu all over again.
As they say, deja vu all over again.
13
Ronald Raygun . Ohh how the legacy is much better than the reality. I lived through the Reagan years, I am an eyewitness to those cold , dark days. I have always thought that the Reagan 80s were payback for all the fun we had in the 70s. We went to sleep worrying about Nuclesr War, we watched TV shows about Nuclesr Winter, even comic books that light hearted medium became cold and bleak .
Rambo with his big guns and high body counts became our new hero, our role model of false patriotism.
Every art form diminished during this time. Films, Television, Novels.
The Moral Majority began a war on homosexuality, and a women's right to choose .
The rich got richer, and the rich became the new celebrities, Donal Trump was one of the biggest. Everything became superficial.
For the first time you saw homeless sleeping on the streets of midtown Manhatten
It became almost impossible to find work, thousands lined up at factories in which one or two jobs were available. The American worker was derided as lazy, and his Japanese counterpart upheld as the new standard
There was a complete diminishing of American values . A crack epidemic hit all the big cities and the New York Times printed articles that asked- Is New York still a livable city as crime spiked and people rode the subway in fear.
That was the real Raygun years.
Rambo with his big guns and high body counts became our new hero, our role model of false patriotism.
Every art form diminished during this time. Films, Television, Novels.
The Moral Majority began a war on homosexuality, and a women's right to choose .
The rich got richer, and the rich became the new celebrities, Donal Trump was one of the biggest. Everything became superficial.
For the first time you saw homeless sleeping on the streets of midtown Manhatten
It became almost impossible to find work, thousands lined up at factories in which one or two jobs were available. The American worker was derided as lazy, and his Japanese counterpart upheld as the new standard
There was a complete diminishing of American values . A crack epidemic hit all the big cities and the New York Times printed articles that asked- Is New York still a livable city as crime spiked and people rode the subway in fear.
That was the real Raygun years.
20
"And the biggest losers . . . will be white working-class voters."
Well, at least there's that for the typical NYT reader or writer to be happy about.
Well, at least there's that for the typical NYT reader or writer to be happy about.
6
Does anybody else remember back to the time when greed was seen as a shameful vice by even many at the top of the economic ladder? Even Andrew Carnegie eventually saw the light.
10
Bill Clinton screwed up with NAFTA, it did not help people in the mid-west at all with employment. This, cost his wife, the Presidency. NAFTA happened almost twenty years ago, it will takes some time to fix it, and yes, things made in Mexico or Cleveland will cost more. I'm okay with that.
The wall is a symbol, that's all. It will always be a sieve. I'm okay with that.
Mexico always treated the US, like the US, owed Mexico for their own poverty. Illegal Mexicans are famous for working the system to their advantage. This has to be reversed, and I'm okay with that.
The wall is a symbol, that's all. It will always be a sieve. I'm okay with that.
Mexico always treated the US, like the US, owed Mexico for their own poverty. Illegal Mexicans are famous for working the system to their advantage. This has to be reversed, and I'm okay with that.
9
His "three minute attention span" - it's that long?
9
Does any one believe this President has a long term understanding of his actions or even his words.
This is already feeling like a slow motion 9/11, the difference is some how he and his cronies will benefit from this madness, and the worst case there won't be anyone left to rebuild.
This is already feeling like a slow motion 9/11, the difference is some how he and his cronies will benefit from this madness, and the worst case there won't be anyone left to rebuild.
3
"Bigly." Is that a word? But it is perfect, Professor Krugman. Just when we're beginning to see a crack of daylight here in Upstate New York at Rust Belt Central with national and international companies starting to locate some real manufacturing factories here and there -- BOOM! They're going to be gone again, scared off by ridiculous 19th Century Trump trade policies. It would be hard to describe how tenuous our recovery is here ... and now comes the hammer blow backwards. Shame on this "new" administration.
4
How many JOBS will be lost when the ACA is repealed?
How many JOBS will be lost when tax cuts force communities to lay off local administrators and and cancel much-needed services?
How many JOBS will be lost when schools have to lay off teachers and support staff, thanks to the unfriendly Devos agenda?
If Trump thinks all these laid-off workers are going to be building roads and bridges, he is sadly mistaken.
Trump is supposedly all about JOBS- lets see some of these stats in the headlines.
How many JOBS will be lost when tax cuts force communities to lay off local administrators and and cancel much-needed services?
How many JOBS will be lost when schools have to lay off teachers and support staff, thanks to the unfriendly Devos agenda?
If Trump thinks all these laid-off workers are going to be building roads and bridges, he is sadly mistaken.
Trump is supposedly all about JOBS- lets see some of these stats in the headlines.
5
Jjust wait until our new import tariffs trigger retaliatory taxes on goods from the US. Everything will cost more for everyone, triggering inflation and probably a new recession. And the great new jobs produced by American high tech will be severely impacted so that a few more Americans can labor in coal mines.
Did Trump sleep through his econ101 lectures at Wharton?
Did Trump sleep through his econ101 lectures at Wharton?
5
It is shocking and dispiriting for me to read such a cogent analysis from Dr. Krugman and know that the US is being led by an ignorant man/child without a clue. Sad.
7
Trump's promise to revive the coal industry is like telling children to give up their video games, because the hula hoop is coming!
Trump's vision for America is an hallucination of doom.
Trump's vision for America is an hallucination of doom.
9
I wonder what the present scene would have looked like with Pres. Bernie in the White House? Back when your opinion mattered, you were locked into a mindset that did not encompass the full gestalt of the election...the character of the candidates, their synchronicity, or lack thereof, with the spirit of the times. Given that you have a metric mind, and you liked the numbers the Clinton program provided. you nonetheless dismissed the truly important numbers...those that showed Clinton's appeal fell short beyond the primaries, that in the general election, Sanders had much more appeal to voters than Clinton had, and while her margin of victory would be small, his would be large. That margin is what we needed to win. Why did you fail to recognize the importance of those poll numbers? It's because you had a visceral reaction to Bernie, he seemed clownish to you, and that caused you to dismiss the acuity with which he has viewed reality these last few decades, as shown in his speeches on the floor of the Congress, and the correctness of his votes. The real test, is what result you get. Your way got us Trump, and Republican troglodytes in charge of all 3 branches of government. So, as a loyal reader of your columns, I approach your scribblings very skeptically now.
8
Another big difference - Reagan championed of America as leader of the free world and the free market promoting the America brand abroad. Trump calls allies and others who are also our customers cheaters and thieves and rages "America First".
Export sales of American brands - Ford, Coke, McDonald's, Boeing, you name it - are going to take a big hit when "America Last" becomes local policy and their workers will suffer.
Export sales of American brands - Ford, Coke, McDonald's, Boeing, you name it - are going to take a big hit when "America Last" becomes local policy and their workers will suffer.
7
Paul, are you so anti-Trump that you are even willing to help the rich and forsake the middle class? The trade deficit does just that. The goods are cheaper but the jobs are gone. Cheap goods don't help if the only way to afford them is to go into debt, which is what the middle class is doing now. Time to trim trade deficits.
5
Imagine, if you will, a prevailing consensus that "something needed to be done". Imagine too, that a group of people who understood the issues, risks, interests and impacts, assemble to consider a way forward. In anyone's imagination, would Donald Trump, Mike Pence, McConnell and Ryan be among that group?
105
What Trump is suggesting China already requires, "If you want to sell it here, you have to make it here." And we have the people and the resources to make it here.
1
That rust belt manufacturing worker is motivated and excited by Mr. Trump. He is hanging on every word. As every oncologist knows it you tell someone that there is "very little chance" that you will benefit from this treatment, the patient will latch on not to the word "little" but to the word "chance." He will not say, "Oh that's terrible." He will say, "So there is a chance then?"
3
Republicans are famous for blowing up deficits, then railing at the Democrats that inherit them.
6
Trademark this, Donald. "Leading America towards 1984, since 2017"
3
- and please no change of the essential subject by bringing up 'Automation'.
Trump is (nearly) all about 'bringing back (manufacturing) jobs to America.
And these jobs still exist - plentiful as the most successful exporting countries in the world China Japan and Germany prove.
And there is no rational reason why WE can't compete.
Trump is (nearly) all about 'bringing back (manufacturing) jobs to America.
And these jobs still exist - plentiful as the most successful exporting countries in the world China Japan and Germany prove.
And there is no rational reason why WE can't compete.
2
Meet the man who made billions on the rust and who'll grab billions more making the US rustier ... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-01-26/wilbur-ross-and-the-c...
2
"Hurt, bigly?" Channeling Trump? A brief moment of humor in a desperately dark time.
If the Dems had any kind of clue, they would pick up the "National Debt" meme.
And they would also remind the public that was the GOP Congress that has had the purse strings for the last 6 years.
And they would also remind the public that was the GOP Congress that has had the purse strings for the last 6 years.
4
Is the wall to keep them out or US in? Time will tell.
3
I want to see Trump's taxes. If they show he's a traitor, we can get rid of him.
6
Saint Reagan the Saint - calling him Saint once is just not enough.
Once he begins destabilizing commerce with border taxes, etc. the machine will start to wobble. Further isolation will come once the rest of the world realizes he could care less of them - and that will cost america because we need to import to make stuff.
There is no magic - the only magic would be going into debt with a REAL infrastructure plan AND free education for all so we can hopefully rise up from redneck.
There is no magic - the only magic would be going into debt with a REAL infrastructure plan AND free education for all so we can hopefully rise up from redneck.
5
If you make people miserable enough and poorly educated for long enough, they will become servile and grateful for scraps, even verbal ones, now and then.
9
Tariffs on Robots! 40 Acres & a Mule!
"Put America to Work!" (c) (tm) (r)
you read it here first...
"Put America to Work!" (c) (tm) (r)
you read it here first...
1
Trump is poorly informed, things happen right under his nose. The Honeywell Corporation just fired 600 Americans and moved their financial division to Mexico, where it bragged it had "created 600 new jobs - Mexico", made the Americans train their Mexican replacements and then fired all the American workers.
And Mr. Trump... not a single, solitary word. Honeywell was a contributor to the Trump campaign.
And Mr. Trump... not a single, solitary word. Honeywell was a contributor to the Trump campaign.
15
tough job, 4 years writing attacks to the Donald, liberals got quite a while of hardship, and FOX finally got to heaven.
1
We all (citizens, media, etc.) need to start asking RIGHT NOW how much more things will cost when Trump's trade and manufacturing policies are implemented. (I'm sure we will also need to do some serious fact-checking on the responses...)
5
If Trump wants to bring back torture then I suggest that he demonstrate its ability to yield impressive results by he himself volunteering to put himself in the hands of its best practitioners and if they are able to get any semblance of TRUTH from him then I will salute this brave new method of intelligence gathering, Bravo I would say!
6
Why don't you talk about Trump being elected to bring back jobs and then correlate that to the fed hiring freeze. Interview the people that voted for Trump and ask them if their disdain for the federal government exceeds the hopelessness of unemployment. Or how about the immigration issue related to jobs such as the H1B visa Trump hasn't changed, which directly impacts the US worker. These esoteric articles are nice but Trump reads the NY Tines and maybe you can change policy if you highlight the impact on his base.
2
Dr. K and the NY Times need to examine their role in ignoring the plight of those who voted for Trump until it was too late.
4
Paul is a Nobel Prize economic genius. You should listen to what he predicts and bet your money in exactly opposite direction. Over the years he helped me make a ton of money. Thanks Paul and keep these "predictions" coming.
2
"Funny, isn’t it, how all the deficit scolds have gone quiet?"
Paul,
I can hear them now. As the deficit soars, we'll hear from the right: 'Well, Obama left the economy in such bad shape, we needed a stimulus...er...I mean, a boost...yeh... that's it, a boost. Meanwhile, to keep the debt sort of in check, we'll have to delay the Replace part of Repeal and Replace. Is 2024 good for you? And did I mention it's Obama's fault?''
Paul,
I can hear them now. As the deficit soars, we'll hear from the right: 'Well, Obama left the economy in such bad shape, we needed a stimulus...er...I mean, a boost...yeh... that's it, a boost. Meanwhile, to keep the debt sort of in check, we'll have to delay the Replace part of Repeal and Replace. Is 2024 good for you? And did I mention it's Obama's fault?''
9
Speaking of China.What about The Donalds tax returns.Not that the American people will ever see them.How much does The Donald owe to Chinese banks.This train wreck has only just begun.Stay tuned!It is only going to get worse.Much much worse!How long do you think the Chinese will put up with his foolishness.Start counting on the fingers of one hand!
5
A Trump supporter reading this article will have absolutely have no idea what Dr. Krugman just wrote about.
7
Uh, Dr Krugman, in case you escaped your memory, Hillary Clinton didn't even bother campaigning in those Mid-West Rustbelt states. The Democrats have now cemented their reputation as an elitist party which abandoned its traditional blue collar base. Is it any wonder that Donald Trump won states that the Democrats have taken for granted for years??
6
Krugman states that Trump is more enthusiastic about punishing people than helping people. I think that Krugman is much more enthusiastic about slamming Trump in every column he writes than talking about the economy, his so-called area of expertise: "Unfortunately, as just about any economist could tell him — but probably not within his three-minute attention span — it doesn’t work that way," Krugman writes. What has Krugman DONE apart from write books to say how things SHOULD be done? It's the old story: businessmen do; teachers say how things should be done. We've had enough of Professors Obama, Clinton and Carter as well as the Bush Travesty.
Let's let a businessman have a chance to run the business that the USA is.
The naysayers and losers like Krugman should shut the hell up.
Let's let a businessman have a chance to run the business that the USA is.
The naysayers and losers like Krugman should shut the hell up.
3
Stop your silly digs at Trump (eg: "...but probably not within his three-minute attention span") they dilute your message and stop people, of the opposite persuasion, from considering your important points.
8
Why does this not feel like being on a roller coaster at an amusement park. As you climb slowly to the apex, you know that very quickly you will be hurtling down. You have faith that you will be both thrilled, and terrified. You know that the ride has been safely completed many times before.
With Trump at the controls, what faith can you have that this ride will ever end safely. That coming off the rails is going to happen, the only question is when.
With Trump at the controls, what faith can you have that this ride will ever end safely. That coming off the rails is going to happen, the only question is when.
4
Dr Krugman points out how history will repeat itself. I think the bottom line is this. Too many Americans don't know what goes on in other parts of the world, don't care, and don't use history as a base from which to understand the world today. It's only a "What's in it for me?" philosophy . People who are different are inherently bad when you don't open your mind and learn about the world around you. Many despise those, like Dr. Krugman, who try and determine the best course of action for the future by studying the past. There's a reason people go to the doctor to try and figure out what is wrong with them. They believed when science told them smoking would cause cancer, but don't believe when science overwhelmingly tells you humans are causing global warming. Why is that? There's much to be learned from the study of economics and history, but you have to take your hands off your ears, open your eyes, and stop screaming at the top of your lungs to benefit from it. The needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few, or the one.
12
Let's face it, Paul, nobody is on the side of the white working class. Trump is not, Reagan was not, neither were the Bushes, the Clintons nor Obama. The Rust Belt has and will get rustier no matter who is in power. Its called technology. The US manufacturing sector produced an all time high in output in real dollar terms (adjusted for inflation) in 2016 while employment in manufacturing dropped by 40,000, and will exceed this again in 2017 for a new record high, and employment in manufacturing will drop further as well. No President can stop this from continuing anymore than they can stop the earth from rotating. Just like farming, manufacturing employment is over as a major job engine.
58
One thing that I fail to understand and maybe someone with greater knowledge in the discipline of economics and clear up, is this. How can it hurt our economy in the long run, if we keep trade deficits down by imposing tariffs? What I mean is that we generate >%20% of the world's GDP with about 5% of the worlds population and are widely considered the model / most "consumer" economy. After the initial ramp up period wouldn't the income generated by producing TV's and other products here outweigh the additional cost (i.e. profits kept here growing the GDP pie greatly). Not to say all trade would be outlawed just kept within say within a 10% deficit each year. I'd love to hear the counter-argument. Thanks.
4
Thanks Mr. Krugman for yet another reasoned analysis pointing out that the world economic system is complex and interconnected. America First Trumpism of the world's only superpower and Brexit espoused by the world's onetime superpower ( they are both meeting as I write!!) are just system noise! But alas Mr. Krugman we do not live in an age of reason! One liners and sound bites based on zero facts rule the times! This past summer we had occasion to drive through rural Pennsylvania and Ohio having lost our highway. Guided by GPS we drove through pretty countryside with occasional "rust" here and there but were disturbed that instead of apple pie and honey the countryside was dotted with Trump signs and there were the occasional Confederate flags spread out like some landscape accessory! From the slogans displayed one got the picture of a certain defiance marring the beauty of the rolling meadows and hills an dales. We got the message but too bad for Hillary surrounded by smart but "mutual admiration society" Ivy League elite types she ignored the signs and walked to defeat. She had the votes and lots of it but not where it mattered.
11
It won't matter that Trump gets his economic policies wrong.
Republicans now have a critical mass of people completely shielded off from reality.
Trump will just continue to lie straight into the camera, as these lies will only get exposed in media rejected by the critical mass of followers.
As long as the Republicans can manage to keep enough other voters away from the polls, they will continue to dominate Congress no matter what. I repeat, no matter what. And guess what, Trump is already laying the groundwork (by lying about the scale of voter fraud) for another round of disenfranchisement.
Unless Trump commits an impeachable offence soon, Democrats are facing a long uphill battle.
Republicans now have a critical mass of people completely shielded off from reality.
Trump will just continue to lie straight into the camera, as these lies will only get exposed in media rejected by the critical mass of followers.
As long as the Republicans can manage to keep enough other voters away from the polls, they will continue to dominate Congress no matter what. I repeat, no matter what. And guess what, Trump is already laying the groundwork (by lying about the scale of voter fraud) for another round of disenfranchisement.
Unless Trump commits an impeachable offence soon, Democrats are facing a long uphill battle.
35
Dr. Krugman trying to the stop the speeding "Trump Express" by resorting to logical economic policy analysis seems an exerise in futility one week into his presidency. The focus for now shoud be on a workable political strategy. And while there aren't many tools in that tool bag either, I can think of two that may be effective if they can be done soon: first, senate Democats need to do everything possible to block or slow down the legislation needed to enact or fund the Trump/Republian agenda; second investigative journalists need to unearth and publicize loudly Trumps business dealings with the Russian Mafia. Some heroic IRS employee or hacker leaking his tax returns would also help.
30
Mr. Trump wants to punish whom he can, because those who voted want him to so do. He is only keeping his promises. Why fault him?
The rust belt may revive or not, labor intensive heavy industries that pay union wages may magically emerge in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania or not - the people living there who voted for Mr. Trump will definitely have four years of feel-good as he hurts one group after the other.
Mr. Trump has been heroic. He took a valiant step toward hurting people with health insurance; toward hurting women, and Native Americans. And he has taken a brave step against science and reason.
All this is very empowering for his voters. They cannot wait for him to pick his next target. If his minions are asking science to shut down, reason to be outlawed, and the press to be gagged, well - so much the better. These have indeed been the (reason, science, freedom) detrimental to his voters' lives.
Voters? Not only the religious right, hate groups, unemployed unskilled people with debt and addiction problems, but mostly regular folk who derive voyeuristic pleasure from watching others suffer - likely because they are suffering too. The notion that a woman could succeed while they suffered was clearly too much to bear.
Or did you, Mr. Krugman, fail to notice that the Coliseum, and the regular sacrifice of humans and animals, was a big part of keeping peace in Rome.
As it shall be for a while in America.
The rust belt may revive or not, labor intensive heavy industries that pay union wages may magically emerge in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania or not - the people living there who voted for Mr. Trump will definitely have four years of feel-good as he hurts one group after the other.
Mr. Trump has been heroic. He took a valiant step toward hurting people with health insurance; toward hurting women, and Native Americans. And he has taken a brave step against science and reason.
All this is very empowering for his voters. They cannot wait for him to pick his next target. If his minions are asking science to shut down, reason to be outlawed, and the press to be gagged, well - so much the better. These have indeed been the (reason, science, freedom) detrimental to his voters' lives.
Voters? Not only the religious right, hate groups, unemployed unskilled people with debt and addiction problems, but mostly regular folk who derive voyeuristic pleasure from watching others suffer - likely because they are suffering too. The notion that a woman could succeed while they suffered was clearly too much to bear.
Or did you, Mr. Krugman, fail to notice that the Coliseum, and the regular sacrifice of humans and animals, was a big part of keeping peace in Rome.
As it shall be for a while in America.
49
Technology aka robots, computers, smartphones, tablets and artificial intelligence is the cause of 2/3rds of American job losses. A global information age economy is relentless in naturally selecting the most fit survivors.
Poor public educational and vocational training is the American problem. And no Americans are more poorly educated and trained for the new job age economy than the white Americans who voted for Donald Trump. Particularly the white Americans living in the former Confederate States of America.
Steel making went from America to Asia and it is not coming back. Coal mining went from England to America to China. STEM education is led by Asian and European nations.
Rust is caused by oxidation of iron. No nation is more rusty red and failing than Trump's second most favorite nation Russia.
Poor public educational and vocational training is the American problem. And no Americans are more poorly educated and trained for the new job age economy than the white Americans who voted for Donald Trump. Particularly the white Americans living in the former Confederate States of America.
Steel making went from America to Asia and it is not coming back. Coal mining went from England to America to China. STEM education is led by Asian and European nations.
Rust is caused by oxidation of iron. No nation is more rusty red and failing than Trump's second most favorite nation Russia.
20
Tariffs arise when a society decides that parts of its economy are essential enough to be now longer evaluated by just economic considerations, but by political and national security ones.
Thus, tariffs appeared in the import of agriculture even though economically it would be cheaper to import agriculturally generated methanol from Brazil and sugar from Cuba.
The US has now over 3000 regulations, tariffs and quotas to protect its agriculture industry. And that does not include other protectionist measures - import of French beef was permitted finally this months, decades after mad cow disease was eradicated.
Manufacturing is an other part of the economic fabric of the US that is essential enough not to be judged by economical considerations alone.
This upsets economists, that believe that politics should follow economics, rather than the other way around .
Historically, economists have been very wrong on the impact of globalization on the US labour force, declaring its influence insignificant, and just as likely to increase salaries as decrease it
It wasn't until 2013 when the research of David Autor and others proved that the previous claims, most prominently formulated by Dr. Krugman, were erroneous.
Thus, tariffs appeared in the import of agriculture even though economically it would be cheaper to import agriculturally generated methanol from Brazil and sugar from Cuba.
The US has now over 3000 regulations, tariffs and quotas to protect its agriculture industry. And that does not include other protectionist measures - import of French beef was permitted finally this months, decades after mad cow disease was eradicated.
Manufacturing is an other part of the economic fabric of the US that is essential enough not to be judged by economical considerations alone.
This upsets economists, that believe that politics should follow economics, rather than the other way around .
Historically, economists have been very wrong on the impact of globalization on the US labour force, declaring its influence insignificant, and just as likely to increase salaries as decrease it
It wasn't until 2013 when the research of David Autor and others proved that the previous claims, most prominently formulated by Dr. Krugman, were erroneous.
4
Paul Krugman says Donald Trump "sees international trade the way he sees everything else: as a struggle for dominance, in which you only win at somebody else’s expense." The implication is that international trade is a win-win, and yet we see that there have been winners (China, India, multinational corporations, the top 1% of the top 1%) and there have been losers (the American middle class).
But instead of addressing this reality and having a serious debate about trade, all we get from Prof. Krugman is the usual demonization and vilification of Donald Trump. Yes, President Trump is deserving of all the opprobrium in the world, but all the opprobrium in the world isn't going to address the problem, a problem that is far too complex for Trumpian platitudes.
Of course, there's a reason we can't have a serious debate about trade. Because when you get right down to it, Paul Krugman and Hillary Clinton and the rest of the Davos class of the Democratic Party don't really see much of an economic justification for the rest of us Americans' existence. Sure, the Republicans are always worse, but at least the Democrats can be better.
But instead of addressing this reality and having a serious debate about trade, all we get from Prof. Krugman is the usual demonization and vilification of Donald Trump. Yes, President Trump is deserving of all the opprobrium in the world, but all the opprobrium in the world isn't going to address the problem, a problem that is far too complex for Trumpian platitudes.
Of course, there's a reason we can't have a serious debate about trade. Because when you get right down to it, Paul Krugman and Hillary Clinton and the rest of the Davos class of the Democratic Party don't really see much of an economic justification for the rest of us Americans' existence. Sure, the Republicans are always worse, but at least the Democrats can be better.
17
It seems to me that you are conflating the effects on future trade imbalance due to the projected ballooning of the budget deficit (resulting in higher interest rates which in turn result in higher dollar which in turn exacerbates the trade deficit) with imposing a 20% tariff. I agree that Trumps policy proposals taken together will increase the budget deficit, and that higher interest rates will have a negative impact on our trade deficit. But, (in my mind) that does not mean that a tariff, in an of itself, would be a bad thing.
2
Wonder when Trump's war against robots will begin?
Since the 1980's, we increased factory output by 87% with one-third fewer workers and the replacement of humans with automation is accelerating. All those tax savings and company investments at Carrier will go to automation - those jobs saved - will disappear in a couple of years. Another 10-years and the truck drivers will disappear.
Since the 1980's, we increased factory output by 87% with one-third fewer workers and the replacement of humans with automation is accelerating. All those tax savings and company investments at Carrier will go to automation - those jobs saved - will disappear in a couple of years. Another 10-years and the truck drivers will disappear.
7
At least Trump knows we are nowhere near full employment. The 63 million people that voted for Trump are evidence that much of America is unemployed, underemployed, or involuntarily withdrawn from the labor force.
Actual full employment last occurred during World War II.
Actual full employment last occurred during World War II.
5
The right strategy to get the largest economic pie as possible via fair trade agreements and skilled immigrants, then tax the beneficiaries (i.e., the rich) more to pay for retraining and education for everyone.
We still end up ahead of a scenario in which protectionism and immigration reduction prevail.
An honest Democrat needs to step forward and make the argument for fair trade and a safety net that supports lifelong learning. This should start with pre-K and college (or trade school). Singapore offers vouchers for such life-long education, for example.
We still end up ahead of a scenario in which protectionism and immigration reduction prevail.
An honest Democrat needs to step forward and make the argument for fair trade and a safety net that supports lifelong learning. This should start with pre-K and college (or trade school). Singapore offers vouchers for such life-long education, for example.
7
Not only Republicans are going to forget about deficit increases are a bad thing, they will also conveniently forget about government not choosing "winners and losers".
Someone in a previous comment mentioned Germany as a manufacturing powerhouse. Yes, that is true. But they don't make sneakers or lift pick up coal. They do advanced engineering products. And that is the problem.
The people that lost their manufacturing jobs lost 1950's manufacturing jobs. Those jobs do not pay today what they used to pay in the past. And not because of immigrants, but because of technology.
So the white blue collar population that is asking for a "return of manufacturing" is asking for a "return to the 1950's". Which is funny, because lots of them are going to complain about what I just wrote here, in the platform of the 2000's and beyond. Where the good paying jobs are. But they don't want to make the effort. Tradition, you know?
Oh, well...
Someone in a previous comment mentioned Germany as a manufacturing powerhouse. Yes, that is true. But they don't make sneakers or lift pick up coal. They do advanced engineering products. And that is the problem.
The people that lost their manufacturing jobs lost 1950's manufacturing jobs. Those jobs do not pay today what they used to pay in the past. And not because of immigrants, but because of technology.
So the white blue collar population that is asking for a "return of manufacturing" is asking for a "return to the 1950's". Which is funny, because lots of them are going to complain about what I just wrote here, in the platform of the 2000's and beyond. Where the good paying jobs are. But they don't want to make the effort. Tradition, you know?
Oh, well...
5
We need a new macroeconomic model. Because of productivity increases and lower labor costs abroad, the number of working people required to provide the world's needed goods and services continues to shrink even as world population grows. We now know that the capitalist model for distributing wealth and income produces increasing inequality and suffering at the low end of the economic spectrum. The Republican ideal, fear of poverty as a motivator, is out of date. So is the notion of work as a universal moral value. It's time for a basic guaranteed income.
17
Economists (including Krugman) have admitted that they failed to adequately predict the effects of quickly liberalized trade policies. Net GDP increased for the nations involved, but employees and industry were not as adaptable as theory predicted and many sectors got left behind and stagnated. The trade-resentment that fueled part of Trump's support was real.
But those supporters haven't learned the lesson at all. Quickly closing trade borders will lead to net GDP decreases, and employees and industry will likely be just as inflexible as adapting to new conditions. E.g., block all cars imported from Mexico, Japan and Germany--it would take at least a decade for the U.S. to increase domestic capacity, during which car prices will soar, America will be poorer, and unemployed line-workers will remain unemployed.
But those supporters haven't learned the lesson at all. Quickly closing trade borders will lead to net GDP decreases, and employees and industry will likely be just as inflexible as adapting to new conditions. E.g., block all cars imported from Mexico, Japan and Germany--it would take at least a decade for the U.S. to increase domestic capacity, during which car prices will soar, America will be poorer, and unemployed line-workers will remain unemployed.
7
Reading between the lines of your column and the commentary, I believe the fundamental question is can the government do anything to improve the well-being, financial security, and quality of life of Americans?
Clearly the factors contributing to improved productivity and competitiveness in the global economy must be adapted to become more effective. These specific factors are somewhat of a mystery and the issue of economic justice has not been addressed in many areas that contribute to the factors such as access to education, and affordable healthcare.
There are other matters such as affordable energy, transportation, housing that need attention. There are also issues arising from the common interests such as global warming, efficient logistics to move goods from producers to consumers, etc. The factor issues within the arc of economic justice provide plenty of opportunities for capital investment but somehow the global capital system is preventing the economic justice.
There are a lot of wrongheaded ideas that are created by those that have access to political power and thus one sees soaring income inequality and drift to monopoly that is taking a huge toll on the US and global economy.
Given what I know, I believe we need to launch an initiative to beam low-cost electric power from space solar satellites, deploy technology to extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, engage in low-cost desalinization of ocean water, and construct 300 mph Maglev networks.
Clearly the factors contributing to improved productivity and competitiveness in the global economy must be adapted to become more effective. These specific factors are somewhat of a mystery and the issue of economic justice has not been addressed in many areas that contribute to the factors such as access to education, and affordable healthcare.
There are other matters such as affordable energy, transportation, housing that need attention. There are also issues arising from the common interests such as global warming, efficient logistics to move goods from producers to consumers, etc. The factor issues within the arc of economic justice provide plenty of opportunities for capital investment but somehow the global capital system is preventing the economic justice.
There are a lot of wrongheaded ideas that are created by those that have access to political power and thus one sees soaring income inequality and drift to monopoly that is taking a huge toll on the US and global economy.
Given what I know, I believe we need to launch an initiative to beam low-cost electric power from space solar satellites, deploy technology to extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, engage in low-cost desalinization of ocean water, and construct 300 mph Maglev networks.
4
The Rust Belt was rusty long before a single job went to another country. Yes our jobs went south, but to The South, not Mexico. The globalization-trade agreements ado is just diverting attention away from the effects of automation and the need for education and training. A new economic reality is evolving that will have ramifications similar to the Industrial Revolution. Our leaders, such as they are, need to plan for a future economy rather than burying their heads in the sand or trying to save the Pony Express.
19
I'm not economist, but old enough to remember the USA of the 40's & 50's. WW2 was over and the US had a huge industrial economy. The steel industry was the largest in the world fueled by a devastated world and the Marshal Plan. Our auto industry ran 24 hours a day to meet demand. Unions grew in size and power. As the worlds economy began to recover, our steel industry became uncompetive, our auto industry became complacent and uncompetitive. Steel plants closed, sold for scrap. Imports of auto's more attuned to customer needs began arriving on our shores. Auto plants closed. Ergo, the "rust belt" of America. Oversimplified, but true. The high-paying jobs created and supported by these industries have never been replaced. There is no way they will ever be replaced by current policies. People must be retrained and be mobile. Move to the jobs. Most jobs are not going to move to the people.
18
Say it ain't so! Krugman The Charlatan, The Pied Piper of economic folly, comes here once again--to root against Capitalism.
It might be instructive for Krugman to pick up a history book--and pay attention to how our great country evolved from horse and buggy--to the most advanced nation on earth--in 2 centuries. Apparently he is confused about how that may have happened.
The functional element that makes Capitalism work is freedom. When citizens have the ability to dream, create, and build--without undue interference from government, miracles happen. Somehow Krugman is immune to this concept.
Trump is a Capitalist. He knows how it works. He understands that releasing business from overbearing burdens of excess taxation and stultifying regulations, unleashes the animal spirits in any economy. It seems Krugman doesn't agree. Somehow, he has managed to convince himself that overbearing regulations, confiscatory tax policy, deficit spending, unions and central planning are the keys to economic success. If true, Europe would be a financial juggernaut. (It is not).
Krugman predicts Trump will fail in his attempt to revitalize the U.S. economy.
I say he will not only unleash an economic miracle--but will ignite a worldwide movement toward free markets. In some ways, it's already happening.
Let's meet back here in 4 years and see who is right.
Krugman has become nothing more than an cheerleader for progressive ideology--and a shill for the Democrat party.
It might be instructive for Krugman to pick up a history book--and pay attention to how our great country evolved from horse and buggy--to the most advanced nation on earth--in 2 centuries. Apparently he is confused about how that may have happened.
The functional element that makes Capitalism work is freedom. When citizens have the ability to dream, create, and build--without undue interference from government, miracles happen. Somehow Krugman is immune to this concept.
Trump is a Capitalist. He knows how it works. He understands that releasing business from overbearing burdens of excess taxation and stultifying regulations, unleashes the animal spirits in any economy. It seems Krugman doesn't agree. Somehow, he has managed to convince himself that overbearing regulations, confiscatory tax policy, deficit spending, unions and central planning are the keys to economic success. If true, Europe would be a financial juggernaut. (It is not).
Krugman predicts Trump will fail in his attempt to revitalize the U.S. economy.
I say he will not only unleash an economic miracle--but will ignite a worldwide movement toward free markets. In some ways, it's already happening.
Let's meet back here in 4 years and see who is right.
Krugman has become nothing more than an cheerleader for progressive ideology--and a shill for the Democrat party.
6
Chuckle all Darwin Capitalism does is increase the wealth of the owners of Capital. The rich get richer and workers less so.
Regulations are what protects people from these Titans of Industry - think environmental protection, consumer protection, least we forget deregulated banking and Wall Street practices with the home mortgage industry a few years ago.
Taxes? - taxes are required for a civilized country - we have some of the lowest taxes in the world. Business has so many write-offs they rarely pay their fair share.
Regulations are what protects people from these Titans of Industry - think environmental protection, consumer protection, least we forget deregulated banking and Wall Street practices with the home mortgage industry a few years ago.
Taxes? - taxes are required for a civilized country - we have some of the lowest taxes in the world. Business has so many write-offs they rarely pay their fair share.
19
Stunning, Jese. You show up with your dusty old and tired talking points, and fail to address the issues Krugman raised. We won't have to wait four years to see tRump's failure. Try two.
3
This is obviously trolling, but I'll bite.
This article is about Trump's efforts to shut down trade and capitalism. About Trump being anti-free market. About Trump trying to command-and-control the economy from on high in order to rally supporters.
But hey, Trump has a lot of money, so he must know how to run the country.
This article is about Trump's efforts to shut down trade and capitalism. About Trump being anti-free market. About Trump trying to command-and-control the economy from on high in order to rally supporters.
But hey, Trump has a lot of money, so he must know how to run the country.
4
What the white working class need is education so they can retool to compete in the technology age with robotics. The conservatives have villainized education to keep the white working class ignorant and angry. The GOP just use these people as their pawns to enrich the top 1%.
20
I think President Trump understands Hotel and Golf Course Management. International Economics, no. The problem is President Trump views himself as an "expert" on just about everything. Instead of getting advice from top economists, Trump will take council with right-wing conspiracy theorists like Steve Bannon. Ignorance, not data, will drive economic policy along with all other sectors of US policy.
12
America must have an educated population in order to have democracy. Critical thinking skills require a knowledge of many things like history, basic economics, civics, literacy, simple facts of science to gain an appreciation for it, basic mathematics and social skills gained from interactive play and sports. Drop outs should not be tolerated until they learn the basics. Voting should be required or otherwise fined for failure to vote. Election day should be a day to do nothing but vote. Congress should not be allowed to set their own salary and benefits, and to have required work hours and days. Any and all contributed money to any politician should be considered a criminal activity and prosecuted. It is time to take back America and re-establish its ideals and values. Freedom must have requirements of those who want it to thrive.
12
Very informative. Republican leadership was heartless and boneheaded all these years and now it is spineless too. Sad. The states and cities have to regain control and push the envelope on healthcare, security, community, trade, immigration and education; work around the dangerous nuts in DT administration and the toxic nuts in the GOP; the whole country will soon have a nut allergy and will start looking to undo its blunders of '16 elections.
10
May be down the road we need more walls, such as around the Blue states divides from red states because at the end In this nation GDP created in Blue states.
7
I was amazed at the hope for the rust belt during the later Obama years. Much of it was based on micro manufacturing, a push toward more community revitalization, improved mass transit, more walkable and bikeable cities, urban public markets, arts and small boutiques, etc.. The slow renaissance in Detroit is an example as are Buffalo, Indianapolis and Milwaukee. I've lived in many parts of America and overseas, and it seems like the sterile cities of the sunbelt have some serious competition for millennials in the exciting, rejuvenating cities of the rust belt. The only thing missing in all of this was a coherent industrial policy. That said, Trump's policies are unlikely to be an improvement. Going back to the 1950's/60's reliance on huge factories and heavy manufacturing will just recreate boom and bust cycles. A smart industrial policy is great, but we need to keep going on a more green and sustainable approach to cities. The rust belt is where it's at for this.
9
Trump's ties were made in China. The steel for his buildings came from China. He never paid a living wage to the little people. Why? Personal profit. He cared not about American manufacturing sector. Why did his fans and voters not understand this? 1+1=2 not 110. I am so dispirited I could spit Chinese made nails.
14
I think the answer to your question is that many voters weren't looking at Trump's actual record in business, they were enthralled by his self created legend as a business person. Further, most people who voted for Trump did not bother with the facts as they became available. They dismissed them as just another political attack.
1
Charismatic leaders do not care about the people. Look around the globe. It is about power and supporting their cronies. They rule with fear and military and police authority. Will Trump truly be able to consolidate such power. I certainly hope not.
10
So many incisive comments, but no solutions, and most importantly, no actions suggested none planned.
The amazing thing about intellectuals and their analysis of terrifying problems, is their inability to do anything about but banter about the most horrific of issues.
The ability to distance yourself from the human element (even I was taught to do same in law school) renders most of this rambling irrelevant. Concerns about the Muslims, Women and Blacks have no effect on mere dialogue. The "order" to minimize, oppress and dehumanize is obliquely integral to this regieme.
More that the imminent Rust Belt crisis, there is a growing racial and religious divide. And above all, palpable fear everywhere among most non White folk.
We are in uncharted, virulent and chaotic times which will soon become our new normal, if good people do nothing. Stop this devolving of our country into this oppressive enclave in which the press are gagged and targeted and a subcategory of citizens actively endorsed.
I hope people do more than write or demonstrate about the demise of all that is good about America. And instead organize, just like the Tea Party, and resist this match back to the dark ages of a divided and uncivilized insular America.
We should all be horrified enough to organize and resist the end of our civilization and kindness. This insular and barbaric enclave is not our America.
The amazing thing about intellectuals and their analysis of terrifying problems, is their inability to do anything about but banter about the most horrific of issues.
The ability to distance yourself from the human element (even I was taught to do same in law school) renders most of this rambling irrelevant. Concerns about the Muslims, Women and Blacks have no effect on mere dialogue. The "order" to minimize, oppress and dehumanize is obliquely integral to this regieme.
More that the imminent Rust Belt crisis, there is a growing racial and religious divide. And above all, palpable fear everywhere among most non White folk.
We are in uncharted, virulent and chaotic times which will soon become our new normal, if good people do nothing. Stop this devolving of our country into this oppressive enclave in which the press are gagged and targeted and a subcategory of citizens actively endorsed.
I hope people do more than write or demonstrate about the demise of all that is good about America. And instead organize, just like the Tea Party, and resist this match back to the dark ages of a divided and uncivilized insular America.
We should all be horrified enough to organize and resist the end of our civilization and kindness. This insular and barbaric enclave is not our America.
4
Ideology-driven politicians just on't seem to understand Cause-and-Effect, the reality of what happens when one takes an action just to be "Right", or because they can. Tariffs just lead to two basic effects:
1. In this globally-connected economy, the components shipped to Mexico or China, made by Ford or Apple employees in the U. S. will suffer a decreased demand. So, the resultant job losses--caused by out tariffs, and oth4r nations' counter-tariffs--will result in lost jibe at home, as well as overseas.
2. Given that many Trump supporters, who were anticipating the return of all those "mythical" jobs, probably shop at Big-Box stores, which offer "Everyday Low Prices" on good made in China, Honduras, Vietnam, etc. So, they will not enjoy the Return of Inflation.
Keep in mind that, with a per capital income of around $55M in the U. S, $11M in China and probably a similarly lower in come than ours, it is impossible to expect a relatively poor people--with much lower Consumer Spending--to reciprocate and buy an equal amount of goods from them.
Through such global trade, however, we keep our own prices down, and raising them-up. Also, for some countries, global trade is much cheaper than foreign aid. Help them help themselves, and we benefit in the long-run, as well.
https://thetruthoncommonsense.com
1. In this globally-connected economy, the components shipped to Mexico or China, made by Ford or Apple employees in the U. S. will suffer a decreased demand. So, the resultant job losses--caused by out tariffs, and oth4r nations' counter-tariffs--will result in lost jibe at home, as well as overseas.
2. Given that many Trump supporters, who were anticipating the return of all those "mythical" jobs, probably shop at Big-Box stores, which offer "Everyday Low Prices" on good made in China, Honduras, Vietnam, etc. So, they will not enjoy the Return of Inflation.
Keep in mind that, with a per capital income of around $55M in the U. S, $11M in China and probably a similarly lower in come than ours, it is impossible to expect a relatively poor people--with much lower Consumer Spending--to reciprocate and buy an equal amount of goods from them.
Through such global trade, however, we keep our own prices down, and raising them-up. Also, for some countries, global trade is much cheaper than foreign aid. Help them help themselves, and we benefit in the long-run, as well.
https://thetruthoncommonsense.com
1
Trump (and Sanders) discussion of the causes of Rust Belt de-industrialization has been astonishingly nonsensical at the most rudimentary levels. How can Rust Belt folks not have recalled, before attributing d-eindustirlization to "bad tax deals," that the rise o pop Rust Belt lore in the form of songs like Billy Joel's "Allentown" and Bruce Springstein's "My Hometown" occurred before even the 1985 free trade deal with Canada and a decade before NAFTA. How are we to understand Sanders' December attribution. during a Chris Hayes show town hall, of the collapse of manufacturing in Kenosha WI to bad trade deals when Sander's blame casting immediately followed airing of a documentary on the 1980s departure of big auto plants from Kenosha? (The documentary did not implicate the 1985 free trade deal with Canada.)
2
I was a bit shocked to see your column in the print edit on moved below the fold from its usual spot at the upper right; also in my mobile web edition your column is not on the front page, and is well down the list on the opinion page. Are you being demoted? Is this a sign of the Times giving in to pressure from the Right? This is worrisome to me. Please say it's not so.
5
I believe most here haves missed the elephant in the room. All that interests trump is winning and having his 'followers' cheer.. As an example he discovered early on if he said he would build a wall and get Mexico to pay everyone cheered. Now he must make this happen to win and will do anything. Reminds me of a certain person in the 30's that just annexed countries that would not do as he liked!!
4
Krugman: "Why does he want this? Because he sees international trade the way he sees everything else: as a struggle for dominance, in which you only win at somebody else’s expense."
Trade deals have indeed been written to win at somebody else's expense. Every trade deal the Democrats have clamored for, and cowered to the Republicans over has been written to advantage EVERYBODY except for the workers.
So what if Donald Trump lied about who he was going to shaft. Donald Trump would not possible had the Democrats not betrayed the natural economic constituency and alienated the dominant culture. Donald Trump made the Democrats, the nation, the world, the planet pay for the betrayal of the working class by the Democrats. And nobody believes Paul Krugman cares about that betrayal, nor the people it affected; he didn't care about any of the destruction that followed the Democratic party's betrayal until the consequence of it resulting in Donald Trump's electoral victory and the threat to his own hoity toity sensibilities became clear to him.
Look in the mirror Paul Krugman, mentally look down the halls of your places of employment in the failed economics departments, at the NYT, look at your sophistry against Sanders during the primaries. There you will find the central sources and ideas that lead to Donald Trump being President of the United States, of 20-30,000,000 losing health care, of the safety net being dismantled.
You built this. Congratulations.
Trade deals have indeed been written to win at somebody else's expense. Every trade deal the Democrats have clamored for, and cowered to the Republicans over has been written to advantage EVERYBODY except for the workers.
So what if Donald Trump lied about who he was going to shaft. Donald Trump would not possible had the Democrats not betrayed the natural economic constituency and alienated the dominant culture. Donald Trump made the Democrats, the nation, the world, the planet pay for the betrayal of the working class by the Democrats. And nobody believes Paul Krugman cares about that betrayal, nor the people it affected; he didn't care about any of the destruction that followed the Democratic party's betrayal until the consequence of it resulting in Donald Trump's electoral victory and the threat to his own hoity toity sensibilities became clear to him.
Look in the mirror Paul Krugman, mentally look down the halls of your places of employment in the failed economics departments, at the NYT, look at your sophistry against Sanders during the primaries. There you will find the central sources and ideas that lead to Donald Trump being President of the United States, of 20-30,000,000 losing health care, of the safety net being dismantled.
You built this. Congratulations.
3
Of course the white working class in the Rust Belt who voted for Trump will never see this op-ed, and even if they did, would not believe a word of it. No, Trump and his stooges in Congress will find a way to blame the Democrats when their jobs don't come back and they lose their health insurance, and Trump's followers will spoon it up eagerly.
11
Dr Krugman, remember the later stages of the Reagan administration when Nancy Reagan used to whisper in her husband's ear, trying to help a man who was suffering from deafness and the early stages of Alzheimer's disease understand what was happening around him?
Steve Bannon is the new Nancy Reagan.
Steve Bannon is the new Nancy Reagan.
13
NONE of the jobs are coming back... to the rustbelt or to anywhere else in the USA. The number one job description for white, non-college educated American men is driving something to somewhere; whether it's people or freight, produce, steel, beer or milk; buses, taxis, trucks and trains; making up 73% of white working class jobs — all of which will disappear in less than ten years due to the advent of self-driving vehicles. Innovation and automation are putting the white American working class out of work. It used to take 100 men to make a book, from the writer to the guys who cut down the trees, to the pulp mill labor, printers, binders, road and bookstore builders, truck drivers and clerks; now it takes one guy clicking onto the internet. This is true in all businesses, everywhere. Like it or not, the future is going to be chock full of a "leisure class," the unemployed-for-life, Brave New world Soma gobbling (oxy?) zombies with nothing to do... The Nanny state will be the only state — and the wall between the insanely wealthy and the insanely bored and restless. It will get ugly.
12
thank you for the clearest explanation yet of why these policies are destructive!
I think the article could have really benefit from a simple diagram showing the chain of expected effects that you mentioned.
then even someone with a three minute attention span could potentially understand.
I think the article could have really benefit from a simple diagram showing the chain of expected effects that you mentioned.
then even someone with a three minute attention span could potentially understand.
2
"Aint gonna make money if it costs money to do things" My old granddad used to say.
Trump is going to blow up the debt all the while blustering and not being successful because the rest of the world will resist. Watch.
Trump is going to blow up the debt all the while blustering and not being successful because the rest of the world will resist. Watch.
1
This is the promise Trump will keep to the rust belt: less Blacks and Hispanics around them. An end to civil rights, a second end to reconstruction. That's what this election was about an appeal to racism. Trumps support among his base will increase despite what will be his broken promise on manufacturing jobs. That's why when people talk about "working people" in the rust belt they really just mean white people; Blanks and Hispanics are working as hard as anyone else. In fact, the resentment in the rust belt is all about whites seeing that many Blacks and Hispanics are doing better economically than they are.
11
Re: Muting Trade with Mexico
I wonder if Trump has any comprehension what a failed economic state across our southern border would portend for our country?
And the costs associated to defend / repair it?
I wonder if Trump has any comprehension what a failed economic state across our southern border would portend for our country?
And the costs associated to defend / repair it?
2
What I find so laughable is, if Hillary Clinton was the President and she proposed the exact same policies, etc as Trump is doing, the Democrats would be all for it and praising her every step of the way. Hypocrites!
5
I hate to say it, but the aggrieved, white, working class people who voted for Trump deserve whatever they get -- or don't get, or lose. If four years from now, they still don't have a factory job, they've lost their health insurance and are poorer in numerous other ways, they have no one but themselves to blame.
17
Trump and the Republicans seem to think that all Americans want to work in factories. Their whole jobs scheme is to bring back manufacturing, as if factory work is the only redeeming work there is, and Americans don't have the intelligence or interest in doing anything else. Why is manufacturing the only answer to our labor issues? What does Trump plan to do for people who aim a little bit higher than that? Who want to use their minds, not just their bodies? Is factory work all we want for our children, and theirs?
I grew up in Pittsburgh, when it really was the "steel city" and the mills were going 24 hours a day. My father, brother and all my uncles worked in the mills. I saw how that work ruined their bodies and their health, and how many of them were trapped and unhappy. I swore no kid of mine would ever enter one of those places. Yes, the steel workers could make a good living, but I wanted more than that for my kids. God gave us a brain and the capacity to learn and develop. The answer to our economic problems doesn't have to be found on a factory floor.
I grew up in Pittsburgh, when it really was the "steel city" and the mills were going 24 hours a day. My father, brother and all my uncles worked in the mills. I saw how that work ruined their bodies and their health, and how many of them were trapped and unhappy. I swore no kid of mine would ever enter one of those places. Yes, the steel workers could make a good living, but I wanted more than that for my kids. God gave us a brain and the capacity to learn and develop. The answer to our economic problems doesn't have to be found on a factory floor.
23
Perhaps the Trump Shock is what we need to wake up all those voters whose magical thinking have given us a Trump Presidency and a Republican Congress. They shall reap what they have sown. But what about all of the rest of us poor slobs who are not in the one percent?
6
Somewhere in the vicinity of 80,000 voters in 3 Rust Belt states delivered the White House to Trump and he is determined to keep them no matter what happens to the rest of the country. While I of course feel bad that these folks lost good, steady jobs with benefits and all they are, when all is said and done, incredibly selfish people who insist on having jobs back that simply can't be brought back without causing a lot of damage to both the US and world economy.
9
You seem to acknowledge that the China Shock was real, and that it imposed "disruption" (i.e. economic devastation) on "some" communities (i.e. those that depended on manufacturing plants for their collective incomes). Surely the world hasn't become so immutably transformed in the 16 years since China was allowed into the WTO that some of those jobs can't be brought back.
I didn't vote for Trump. I don't like him. I don't trust him. I'm sure he will do many things we'll all regret.
But if he can somehow force the employer class to quit sacrificing its American workers on the alter of maximized profits at least some good will have come from his election*.
I didn't vote for Trump. I don't like him. I don't trust him. I'm sure he will do many things we'll all regret.
But if he can somehow force the employer class to quit sacrificing its American workers on the alter of maximized profits at least some good will have come from his election*.
3
Krugman: "Funny, isn’t it, how all the deficit scolds have gone quiet?"
That the Republicans in Congress have no integrity is no surprise. Who is shocked by their hypocrisy? Deficits only matter to them if the president is a Democrat.
That the Republicans in Congress have no integrity is no surprise. Who is shocked by their hypocrisy? Deficits only matter to them if the president is a Democrat.
18
The democrats have still not figured it out. Republicans are unified while the democrats are still in complete disarray. They continue to discuss issues logically, but that is not where we are at. Now is the time to keep our nation divided and all for the right reason.....we have a one man government that even Congress cannot control. We need younger and engaged democratic leadership now more than ever.
8
Insightful essay, as always. As the great American economist, Bruce Springsteen, once said, "these jobs are going' boys, and they ain't comin' back." However, the use of "bigly" in the antepenultimate paragraph gave me pause. Is that even a word? I guess it is now.
2
Write on! This the policy you get from a narcissistic bully who believes economics is a zero-sum game of winners and losers. With his tax-cutting Congressional Republican enablers look for the Great Recession II coming soon to America and perhaps the world.
3
Your analysis is excellent. But it doesn't matter. The problem is that all of us who are are examining everything on the basis of history, data, and logic are going to be left behind as a populist movement continues to be dazzled by the rhetoric of the administration. This is The Emperor's New Clothes at its worst. The challenge is how do we communicate to much of the country that the Emperor isn't wearing anything?
9
Is it possible that the budget hole that the albeit much needed infrastructure
spending blast will create will be used as the cudgel to hammer SS and Medicare- Medicaid? Similar to Reagan's burst of military spending and tax cuts?
spending blast will create will be used as the cudgel to hammer SS and Medicare- Medicaid? Similar to Reagan's burst of military spending and tax cuts?
2
The oftentimes factless, half-truth, anti-Republican arguments that Dr. Krugman consistently drones on about have rendered his opinions to be largely meaningless.
If one was so-inclined to spend the time, holes could be punched into every paragraph of this article, but they appeal to his "Republicans-can-never-be-right-despite-facts-to-the-contrary constituents who lap up this liberal propaganda as though it actually has some meaningful reality and validity.
If one was so-inclined to spend the time, holes could be punched into every paragraph of this article, but they appeal to his "Republicans-can-never-be-right-despite-facts-to-the-contrary constituents who lap up this liberal propaganda as though it actually has some meaningful reality and validity.
2
Mr. Krugman, like most economists, is quick to offer critiques but slow to provide any solutions. Protectionism? It leads to a high dollar and lost jobs for exporters. Free trade? An excuse for greedy business owners to offshore more American jobs. And on the OTHER hand, taxes are too low AND too high at the same time.
The fact of the matter is that President Trump was elected to look first after the needs of American citizens and American businesses. And I for one am perfectly happy to see him put paid to past policies of encouraging trade, global economic development and subsidies to countries that only use those policies against us.
Being a good global neighbor means first keeping your own American house in good condition. President Trump, have at it. You've got my full support, and that of millions of other American citizens.
The fact of the matter is that President Trump was elected to look first after the needs of American citizens and American businesses. And I for one am perfectly happy to see him put paid to past policies of encouraging trade, global economic development and subsidies to countries that only use those policies against us.
Being a good global neighbor means first keeping your own American house in good condition. President Trump, have at it. You've got my full support, and that of millions of other American citizens.
2
What I remember economically from the Reagan years is several years of certificates of deposit with 10% interest rates. It was good for me because I was serving in Germany in the army and wasn't buying a house or cars etc. probably not so good for everyone else
1
The same people who railed against the "arrogance" of Obama's professorial demeanor thrill to the arrogance of Trump, who proposes embarrassingly simplistic "solutions" to complex problems, as though everyone but him was just too stupid all along to push the big red magic button marked "fix everything."
6
"Making the Rust Belt Rustier"
The problem, ultimately, isn't oxidation. It's globalization.
Our globalized planet is the quintessential example of an organism that has become too big to survive.
The logical endpoint of globalization is not the sovereign individual but a single attenuated, amorphous, homogenized mass that is one antagonistic event away from extinction.
As the EU mess suggests, the global organism is, to re-turn a phrase, too big to succeed, and its differentiated parts, having been reduced to almost nothingness, are neither self-sufficient nor survivable.
The problem, ultimately, isn't oxidation. It's globalization.
Our globalized planet is the quintessential example of an organism that has become too big to survive.
The logical endpoint of globalization is not the sovereign individual but a single attenuated, amorphous, homogenized mass that is one antagonistic event away from extinction.
As the EU mess suggests, the global organism is, to re-turn a phrase, too big to succeed, and its differentiated parts, having been reduced to almost nothingness, are neither self-sufficient nor survivable.
5
"And the biggest losers, as with health care, will be white working-class voters who were foolish enough to believe that Donald Trump was on their side."
Then perhaps they'll stop watching Fox, listening to Rush, will go to the library and actually read a real book, and will pay more attention the next time someone tries to sell them a bottle of political snake oil.
Then perhaps they'll stop watching Fox, listening to Rush, will go to the library and actually read a real book, and will pay more attention the next time someone tries to sell them a bottle of political snake oil.
2
A tax on Mexican goods? America exports a huge amount to Mexico. Does My President think they will not retaliate and place a huge import tax on American goods? This is a bad scenario all around but not one well understood by our "president".
1
Mr. Krugman ends his piece with this:
"And the biggest losers...will be white working-class voters who were foolish enough to believe that Donald Trump was on their side."
What else could they do? Corporate Democrats have shown that they aren't on the side of working-class voters. Voices for the meritocratic class, like Mr. Krugman's, should stop berating ordinary American's. They need to take responsibility for their actions during the Clinton (NAFTA, Welfare Reform, Justice Reform, Bank Deregulation) and Obama (Extension of Bush Tax Cuts, No New Gun Regulations, No Bankers Prosecuted, Guantanmo Remains, Drone Strikes, Libya) years.
"And the biggest losers...will be white working-class voters who were foolish enough to believe that Donald Trump was on their side."
What else could they do? Corporate Democrats have shown that they aren't on the side of working-class voters. Voices for the meritocratic class, like Mr. Krugman's, should stop berating ordinary American's. They need to take responsibility for their actions during the Clinton (NAFTA, Welfare Reform, Justice Reform, Bank Deregulation) and Obama (Extension of Bush Tax Cuts, No New Gun Regulations, No Bankers Prosecuted, Guantanmo Remains, Drone Strikes, Libya) years.
8
We cut taxes and deregulated banks under Reagan. We had record deficits and had to bail out the Savings and Loan Industry. We cut taxes and deregulated banks and wall street under Clinton and Bush. We had record deficits and had to bail out the banks and wall street.
Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me. Fool me three times, won't get fooled again.
Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me. Fool me three times, won't get fooled again.
4
His tax returns weren't the only documents Trump refused to release. He also wouldn't release his college transcripts. Although he somehow appears to have graduated from Wharton, he clearly must have flunked Macro Economics 101.
5
Good to know that we have some bright folks that remember history and can remind us that we are doomed to repeat that history when we do not learn from the past. Just wish that we had a president and Republicans in Congress capable of learning the lesson taught us by PK in this op-ed piece.
Of course, there is no evidence that docility is a valued virtue in the White House or the controlling party in Congress.
Of course, there is no evidence that docility is a valued virtue in the White House or the controlling party in Congress.
3
Mr. Krugman never had the slightest sympathy for worker. When, those who lost their jobs wrote him letters, after arguing globalization in the NY Times, responded, quote, thus
" I guess I should have expected that this comment would generate letters along the lines of, "Well, if you lose your comfortable position as an American professor you can always find another job--as long as you are 12 years old and willing to work for 40 cents an hour."
Such moral outrage is common among the opponents of globalization--of the transfer of technology and capital from high-wage to low-wage"
countries and the resulting growth of labor-intensive Third World exports."
And , quote
"In short, my correspondents are not entitled to their self-righteousness. They have not thought the matter through"
He not only never answered the question of the fired workers, he treated with scathing contempt.
Mr. Krugman, with his now proven wrong theories about the impact of globalization on US wages of those with jobs competing with cheap labour overseas, Mr. Krugman has made the rust belt rustier than any other US economist.
" I guess I should have expected that this comment would generate letters along the lines of, "Well, if you lose your comfortable position as an American professor you can always find another job--as long as you are 12 years old and willing to work for 40 cents an hour."
Such moral outrage is common among the opponents of globalization--of the transfer of technology and capital from high-wage to low-wage"
countries and the resulting growth of labor-intensive Third World exports."
And , quote
"In short, my correspondents are not entitled to their self-righteousness. They have not thought the matter through"
He not only never answered the question of the fired workers, he treated with scathing contempt.
Mr. Krugman, with his now proven wrong theories about the impact of globalization on US wages of those with jobs competing with cheap labour overseas, Mr. Krugman has made the rust belt rustier than any other US economist.
9
It can't decline any faster, it's already gone.
The question is, can we bring it back.
Negotiations for a new treaty must begin at a strong bargaining position.
Now we have one, no thanks to spineless progressive collectivists like Our Author.
The question is, can we bring it back.
Negotiations for a new treaty must begin at a strong bargaining position.
Now we have one, no thanks to spineless progressive collectivists like Our Author.
God bless you Mr Krugman. Unfortunately the people who voted for our narcissistic, sociopathic president have never read a NYT article let alone one that explains longer than a high school grad's attention span that what the US needs now is better training to produce computer programmers and the like. Ms Clinton's campaign should have hired a really TV producer to make her campaign more relatable to the millions of folk who are internationally joked-about public schools failed. And, Mr Trump is like the "husband" the GOP Congres "wife" thinks they can change. Unfortunately he has no interest in taking responsibility and going to "therapy" to save himself or his "marriage". We now need to convince the"wife" to file for divorce before she gets hurt (they lose constituent confidence).
2
Mr. Krugman is trying to provide instruction in the finer points of boxing to an opponent who is beating his face in. Like the fiscal deficit and ISIS, the trade deficit is merely a shiny object for Trump and his Republicans to dangle in front of their supporters as a distraction. The real business at hand is to consolidate the huge gains in wealth and political power made by the rich in their slow motion class war against the clueless middle class and - if such a thing is even possible at this point - make further gains.
1
The economic damage of world trade is not essentially the difference of advantage that the various countries obtain, it is the internal economic policies pursued by each that affect how the benefits from that trade are distributed. As an article in the NYT pointed out some years ago, we've experienced a fairly healthy growth in GDP over the last 40 years, it's just that the top 1/10th of one percent has walked off with all of the productive excess of the country since 1985. If we actually still want a middle class, we need to address that goal with policies that might actually get us there. The world continually shifts and changes, having a fair, more or less equitable economy remains a good goal.
Blaming goods imported from Mexico for our own concentration of wealth is like blaming the spice trade in the 1500's for Feudalism.
Blaming goods imported from Mexico for our own concentration of wealth is like blaming the spice trade in the 1500's for Feudalism.
4
Americans are addicted to mass consumption. The tariffs will have a chilling effect on that. The rustbelt jobs are not coming back. The house of cards will fall and the ignoramuses that believed in this fairy tale will be the ones most hurt. Serves them right.
4
It is amazing that one of the first suggestions by this Republican president is to impose taxes! I've been listening to the Republican logic about what horrors arise from taxes and yet, here, Trump went willy-nilly into the abyss of his party's fallacies. Luckily, somebody was listening and realized their actions were just blowing smoke.
Let Trump supporters get what they've elected and fully deserve: dirty water, no jobs, no health care, unwanted children, the sight of the rich getting richer on their dime and the vulgar joy of Trump twitter reminding them of how great he has made them. Poetic justice is the sweetest form of justice in the Universe.
4
If I understand tariffs (big IF) they not only restrict imports of one kind or another but they also generate revenue from those items that are imported in spite of the tariffs.
What becomes of that additional revenue? How will Trump and the Republicans fritter it away? Clearly not on health care. More F-35 debacles?
In the end, Trump and his minions will look after themselves and the Devil take the hindmost in the Rust Belt.
What becomes of that additional revenue? How will Trump and the Republicans fritter it away? Clearly not on health care. More F-35 debacles?
In the end, Trump and his minions will look after themselves and the Devil take the hindmost in the Rust Belt.
1
"And the biggest losers, as with health care, will be white working-class voters who were foolish enough to believe that Donald Trump was on their side."
But since it's all about lies and propaganda now, and of course dis-education (as in disinformation) how will those proud Republican voters ever come to understand that they just bought and made the whole world pay for the faultiest made in America bill of goods ever pitched to the gullible? Who will convey the news in a way that doesn't get cut and pasted (as in gerrymandered) into an opposite "truth?"
But since it's all about lies and propaganda now, and of course dis-education (as in disinformation) how will those proud Republican voters ever come to understand that they just bought and made the whole world pay for the faultiest made in America bill of goods ever pitched to the gullible? Who will convey the news in a way that doesn't get cut and pasted (as in gerrymandered) into an opposite "truth?"
2
Well folks - there is California- eight largest economy in the world complete with healthcare, environmental regulations, and a huge immigrant population. Rust Belt and Republicans take note. You are trashing the policies that make California great. I imagine that this week has given the Clintons something to smile about. Maybe we'll build our own wall - but not with Mexico.
2
Fair trade is what we are after. Your economist chimera of free trade does not exist.
We have major trading relationships that need to be reviewed.
China has historically demanded that if you want to sell something in China, you must build it there. You must develop the necessary suppliers and transfer technology to local companies in order to be allowed to manufacture there.
Now that China has developed quite a long ways from the time the previous agreements were put in place, reviewing agreements simply makes sense.
Imagine if the US could work with China to encourage Chinese investment in US manufacturing capacity? If you sell here, build here. Chinese companies are looking for foreign investments and we have communities that need investing.
Krugman assumes that any change to a previous trade agreement must be bad. He gives too much credit to the bureaucrats that have gone before.
We have major trading relationships that need to be reviewed.
China has historically demanded that if you want to sell something in China, you must build it there. You must develop the necessary suppliers and transfer technology to local companies in order to be allowed to manufacture there.
Now that China has developed quite a long ways from the time the previous agreements were put in place, reviewing agreements simply makes sense.
Imagine if the US could work with China to encourage Chinese investment in US manufacturing capacity? If you sell here, build here. Chinese companies are looking for foreign investments and we have communities that need investing.
Krugman assumes that any change to a previous trade agreement must be bad. He gives too much credit to the bureaucrats that have gone before.
3
Trump was handed a growing and vibrant economy. All I heard from younger people was optimism, first home,new car, multiple job offers etc. than the election started and he convinced many older people of an alternate darker pessimistic future. A steady technocratic leader would have ensured another decade of economic progress, only an idiot would fold a full house. If this election only accomplishes one thing I hope it teaches younger voters your future matters on political engagement, don't trust baby boomers ever!
2
Trump Shock indeed. Republicans who used to worry about the deficit are now ready to send it soaring with a stupid wall, an even stupider investigation of non-existent voter fraud, tax cuts for the rich and trade wars that will only hurt American manufacturers and consumers -- all this to massage the ego of their new emperor. What has happened to the Grand Old Party of fiscal conservatives?
4
If it costs us more for products, it means we will have less money to spend on other products. You shoot for a balance, something stable so we can plan for the future. When you start jerking us around on everything from the Mexico/US mesh, messing with Europe, to trillion dollars costs for new nukes, to a trillion dollars in adjustment for health care inequality per year, you are really messing with the whole country. I'm waiting for the recession to soon follow.
2
I read the whole article and none of it came as a surprise to me. If only there was some way to fit all of this into 140 characters so Trump and his followers would understand life. Gee I wonder if we raise tariff's on other countries, if they will raise tariffs on us? Of course. I also wonder when Trump is going to bring the factories that make all of his brand to America, or will he be exempt from tariffs because he is so great?
2
I just had a discussion about the Rust Belt issue with my son a college Economics student. His suggestion, people should just move. Mr Krugman says that Trump will not accomplish what he claims. Trump throws out Tweet size ideas, policy to follow later. At least he is talking to the Rust belt constituency and not tell them to just move. Mr Krugman seems to have a blind spot about this issue. In mid October he was still called out pundits and others in these pages for their blind spot not seeing the inevitability and correctness of Hillary Clinton’s coming victory. She was a free trader till forced to claim she changed. She had no message for the Rust Belt except go online to read her suggestions, some probably coming from Mr Krugman himself. From afar it sounded like go back to school and start over. Mr Krugman, I don’t trust Donald Trump, but when do you speak to the Rust Belt electorate who only see companies like Carrier moving oversees as their products are still unloaded off the returning trucks.
2
There are no good old days except for the white people of that era. Its delusional to think that we can bring back the jobs of their grandparents. For the rest of us immigrants, our parents pushed us to get an education and move on to jobs that would provide a future. Shame that I don't hear the "rust belt" ilk speak about getting an education for themselves or encouraging their children to go to school to have a better life.
To all those that disagree today with Paul Krugman please be reminded that he won a Nobel prize in economics for his work in patterns of trade between countries, as well as what goods are produced where and why. When he writes on those matters I shut up and listen.
As a reminder: In 1870 about 50% of the US population was employed in agriculture. Today that is only 2%. Agriculture is a net exporter. It is the #1 in the world in many products.
In a capitalist economy change is the only constant. It seems Trump, whose business is to put his name on stuff he never made and made mainly in China, is trying to stop change rather than help people live and prosper with it. That is Krugman's main point these days.
As a reminder: In 1870 about 50% of the US population was employed in agriculture. Today that is only 2%. Agriculture is a net exporter. It is the #1 in the world in many products.
In a capitalist economy change is the only constant. It seems Trump, whose business is to put his name on stuff he never made and made mainly in China, is trying to stop change rather than help people live and prosper with it. That is Krugman's main point these days.
3
President Trump may well break his campaign promises -- but how many of our past presidents -- both Democrat and Reublican -- have kept all their campaign promises? Trump talked the wall and apparently is going about building that wall. He talked about restricting migration and is going about doing exactly that. He has been in office for less than a week -- let's wait till he has been in office for a month or more before he is accused of walking away from his promises
3
These foolish voters have been voting against their interests since 2000, when they decided that the Clinton-era budget surpluses, declining national debt, rising wages, and low unemployment was not as important as "moral values." They voted against other candidates on small potato issues. Al Gore vs. the Internet. John Kerry vs. Swift Boats. Howard Dean and the scream heard throughout the media. And more recently, Hillary and those e-mails. We need more fiscal federalism so Blue States can fund their own course within a loose federal system. If the Red states want to disintegrate, that's their prerogative so long as it doesn't take states like mine down with them.
8
Dr. Krugman if Trump can't understand the very simple concept that a 20% tax on Mexican goods to pay for the "wall" will actually be paid for by Americans with higher prices for the goods how would he understand the concept of economics? This is a business man who has had business that have gone bankrupt numerous times so tariffs deficits, trade agreements, maybe beyond his reach. Maybe Carrier can bail out the American economy -that deal took the taxpayers to the cleaners.
7
I remember when NAFTA was floated as a great job creator for Americans. It was all about the free flow of products and services across our borders with Canada and Mexico. It all sounded reasonable. We were not told that American manufacturing was heading to low-wage Mexico, or China or India or ...
NAFTA was the Big Con. The founders of NAFTA never had free trade with goods sold to Canada and Mexico, as well as purchased from same. American jobs were on the line. Manufacturing was never "stolen" by China or Mexico as Mr. Trump has alleged. It was the push for higher profit margins resulting in bloated shareholder value which resulted in hyper-inflated executive compensation packages that drove jobs away.
American companies quickly realized they no longer had to worry about environmental laws, worker safety, health insurance, pensions, or even child-labor laws.
The toothpaste is out of the tube after 25 years of "free" trade policies. World markets, for better or worse, rely on the free trade between global communities. Today, we have a new president with the attention span of a gnat and the temper tantrums of a petulent three year old. His early adult training from the maniacal Roy Cohn (chief advisor to Sen. Joe McCarthy) has created a monster that has risen from some primordial ooze determined to do things his way.
Control of Trump's brain is up for grabs as the GOP works to privatize Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security. It won't be pretty to watch.
NAFTA was the Big Con. The founders of NAFTA never had free trade with goods sold to Canada and Mexico, as well as purchased from same. American jobs were on the line. Manufacturing was never "stolen" by China or Mexico as Mr. Trump has alleged. It was the push for higher profit margins resulting in bloated shareholder value which resulted in hyper-inflated executive compensation packages that drove jobs away.
American companies quickly realized they no longer had to worry about environmental laws, worker safety, health insurance, pensions, or even child-labor laws.
The toothpaste is out of the tube after 25 years of "free" trade policies. World markets, for better or worse, rely on the free trade between global communities. Today, we have a new president with the attention span of a gnat and the temper tantrums of a petulent three year old. His early adult training from the maniacal Roy Cohn (chief advisor to Sen. Joe McCarthy) has created a monster that has risen from some primordial ooze determined to do things his way.
Control of Trump's brain is up for grabs as the GOP works to privatize Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security. It won't be pretty to watch.
8
I'm a foreigner, a Canadian. Trump's claim that NAFTA has been a giveaway to Canada and Mexico, that we're freeloaders who steal America's jobs, we don't pay our way, and that US governments in the past have failed to assert American interests -- these preposterous claims may rally his supporters but they will generate nothing but fear and hostility for the new Trump Administration in Canada, Mexico, and other countries around the world. Trump's calculus must be that fear will suffice, that his government does not need our cooperation or our imports to create more jobs and prosperity in America. The consequences of this kind of protectionist nationalism -- if he goes through with it -- will be devastating not only for our economy but for yours. He's going to make enemies of his neighbours, your partners in the integrated, deeply interdependent, North American economy. How does that benefit American workers and their families?
15
Here is where we are going. Millions of jobs will be innovated out of existence by new technology, and this is only going to accelerate. Only a minority of people losing jobs that way will find new jobs that pay a decent wage because they lack the training, are unable or unwilling to move to where new jobs are, or … because they don’t have the basic cognitive skills (remember, not everyone has an IQ over 100). These folks will not only suffer financially, they will also feel profoundly disrespected by a world that does not need them, making them very very angry and very very prone to spiral down with drugs and alcohol.
Now, because of the huge increase in productivity due to automation, the nation’s economy as a whole can afford drastically increasing the minimum wage for all jobs, including for very important jobs spurned by many because they are not “manly” such as taking care of the elderly (and there will be many to take care of!), the sick, children, infrastructure upkeep, … . The big question is whether a decent minimum wage will produce enough self-respect and respect by the world. If folks continue to live in the past, it won’t.
Now, because of the huge increase in productivity due to automation, the nation’s economy as a whole can afford drastically increasing the minimum wage for all jobs, including for very important jobs spurned by many because they are not “manly” such as taking care of the elderly (and there will be many to take care of!), the sick, children, infrastructure upkeep, … . The big question is whether a decent minimum wage will produce enough self-respect and respect by the world. If folks continue to live in the past, it won’t.
8
Reading Dr. Krugman has become such a mixed blessing. On the one hand, you get so much reliable wisdom about the economy and the direction in which it's heading. On the other hand, you end up becoming so depressed that you wonder why you're not taking a knife to your own wrists.
7
So they bring back some manufacturing jobs. Are they ready to see the amount of automation that goes on in today's plants?
Years ago in a sheet metal shop a family member did work by hand. Today, he operates a computer with equipment that allows the work to be done by machines that are automated. No hands, Ma.
It would be far better if people could be trained to do the more modern version of manufacturing instead of just claiming they will provide jobs that aren't going to be there even if the plant returns.
Years ago in a sheet metal shop a family member did work by hand. Today, he operates a computer with equipment that allows the work to be done by machines that are automated. No hands, Ma.
It would be far better if people could be trained to do the more modern version of manufacturing instead of just claiming they will provide jobs that aren't going to be there even if the plant returns.
5
During the Reagan years interest rate policy was very different. Quantitative easing by the central banks has generated a surplus of money that makes it very difficult for interest rates to rise. We have entered the period of permanent low interest rates.
As to tariffs, they do work. Reagan put a 45% duty on imported Japanese Motorcycles to save Harley Davidson.
Harley Davidson recovered . Last year 40% of its production was exported.
As to tariffs, they do work. Reagan put a 45% duty on imported Japanese Motorcycles to save Harley Davidson.
Harley Davidson recovered . Last year 40% of its production was exported.
4
Krugman's claim that Reagan's deficits raised interest rates is just nonsense. Interest rates began rising in the late 60's and peaked in 1981, when the debt/GDP was at a minimum. Thereafter as the debt rose interest rates fell. Neither the deficits nor Reagan's tax cuts caused increased inflation either - it also fell, since the oil shocks were over.
Even without making howlers like the above economist have never been able to predict the future. The Trump administration will cause more uncertainty, since Trump himself seems not to know what he will do from day to day, and of course the important members of his administration have been concerned with increasing corporate profits and not wages.
What continues to be missing from the analyses of Krugman and other establishment economists is how to formulate policies that will reverse the growth of inequality. The lack of any credible commitment to do this on the part of Democrats was a main factor in the election of Trump - why do they leave it up to demagogues?
Even without making howlers like the above economist have never been able to predict the future. The Trump administration will cause more uncertainty, since Trump himself seems not to know what he will do from day to day, and of course the important members of his administration have been concerned with increasing corporate profits and not wages.
What continues to be missing from the analyses of Krugman and other establishment economists is how to formulate policies that will reverse the growth of inequality. The lack of any credible commitment to do this on the part of Democrats was a main factor in the election of Trump - why do they leave it up to demagogues?
5
Of the richest 100 individuals in the world nearly 1/3 are Americans. Of these, the vast majority have built their wealth through investments, hedge funds, technology and buying/selling companies. Is it time to educate the America people that our economy is not driven by the production of goods and the labor of it's citizens but rather the games played on Wall Street?
10
Economics cannot deal well with decision-making that is based on "a struggle for dominance". It belongs to the realm of evolutionary biology. Here we have an alpha male who expresses aggression on whomever is the out-group, be they political opponents or foreigners. Subordinates don't challenge the alpha, not so much out of fear, but because subordination has been naturally selected over human evolution. Wanting to belong to the group is almost instinctual. Trump, the Republican Congress and their constituencies---as well as counterparts in Brazil, England, and France----show us how wanting is economic theory to explain the patterns of non-rational behavior which impact greatly resource allocation.
2
We should be aware of two very important points: 1) we have been spared a third world war over the last 70 years due mostly to the global economy; and 2) companies seeking lower cost labor will relocate to the South, leaving the rust belt at an ever increasing rate.
7
American manufacturing declined because American companies ceased to make investments in new technology, seeking larger short-term profits by setting up financial subsidiaries (see GE and Westinghouse) that ended up making poor investments, leading to the collapse of these companies or their buy out by foreign firms. The managements at GM, Firestone, Good Year, Westinghouse, USX, etc. lost interest in their core businesses and sought bigger profits elsewhere in order to "enhance shareholder value." Study the history of the industrial decline. The foreign competition won because Japanese and German firms, for instance, focused on making better products at lower prices than their American counterparts. Eventually cheap Chinese labor came along and dealt the coup de grace to our traditional manufacturing industries, but the decline started much earlier and was due to American management decisions, not to free trade.
16
Thank you Let me add no union member or executive made these decisions.
You have to know a summary of international economic history to put this news in context;
The harm was done long ago with the adoption of free trade agreements that relaxed import tariffs thus leading to a large exodus of American manufacturing abroad in search of cheap labor AND the absence of import tariffs that made manufacturing abroad even more attractive. That was the harm that free trade agreements did. They exported American manufacturing and wealth.
After several decades, Americans are now accustomed to much cheaper goods and a twenty percent tax on imports will simply be passed on to American consumers. If this comes to pass, it will be an extraordinary shock to the economy. The largest portion of the American economy is consumer spending. This will mean a double digit inflation rate immediately upon the start of taxation.
An import tax is not the answer to repatriating manufacturing and wealth. Incentives are needed for American owned manufacturing to return.
I'm a great believer in education over legislation. Don Trump has actually laid the ground work for what's needed by incorporating the phrase "Make America Great Again". Sure, he's a pretty crude guy, but think of him as an Archie Bunker blue collar worker with a good sense of patriotism. We don't like the messenger, but we like the message.
We can rebuild the nation slowly and patriotically. An idea does more than a law which follows the idea.
Buy "Made in the USA". It could be your job.
The harm was done long ago with the adoption of free trade agreements that relaxed import tariffs thus leading to a large exodus of American manufacturing abroad in search of cheap labor AND the absence of import tariffs that made manufacturing abroad even more attractive. That was the harm that free trade agreements did. They exported American manufacturing and wealth.
After several decades, Americans are now accustomed to much cheaper goods and a twenty percent tax on imports will simply be passed on to American consumers. If this comes to pass, it will be an extraordinary shock to the economy. The largest portion of the American economy is consumer spending. This will mean a double digit inflation rate immediately upon the start of taxation.
An import tax is not the answer to repatriating manufacturing and wealth. Incentives are needed for American owned manufacturing to return.
I'm a great believer in education over legislation. Don Trump has actually laid the ground work for what's needed by incorporating the phrase "Make America Great Again". Sure, he's a pretty crude guy, but think of him as an Archie Bunker blue collar worker with a good sense of patriotism. We don't like the messenger, but we like the message.
We can rebuild the nation slowly and patriotically. An idea does more than a law which follows the idea.
Buy "Made in the USA". It could be your job.
1
We need Krugman's analysis soon of the corporate tax reform proposed by Alan Auerbach and some Republicans in Congress, which generated today's flap over "import taxes". As I understand it, "border adjustment" is not an import tax but is analogous to what many states do: allocate corporate income for tax purposes based on sales in the state, or in this case, the country, and does not tax income made from exports, since sales are elsewhere. There are issues and problems in this system--will it really hit consumers? does it really reflect corporate income?--and the Republicans want to use it as a means to drastically lower the overall corporate tax take, but to the extent it breaks through massive offshore corporate tax sheltering, there appear to be real advantages. Some progressive economists have expressed interest, so, please, Paul, weigh in with your influential voice.
Even as I try not to be an "armchair psychologist", Mr. Trump's ongoing shenanigans seem to compel one to take part in dissecting his underlying motives, intellect (or lack of), and overall stability (or lack of). In one short week, he seems to have displayed an absolute ignorance towards the importance of understanding all ramifications included with international relations; a complete disregard for what could be called " trust in America's word"; absolutely no understanding of how to manage agreements with other countries; and more than can be documented here. His approach to international relations is that of a petulant child, one who has found the keys to the realm and is now simply indulging in arrogant and grandiose 'power fantasies'. None of his actions to date have any basis in reality, or respect for sound contractual practices. Isn't this something he brags about being so good at - drawing up and negotiating contracts? But then, perhaps what we are seeing is the true picture, that of someone so immature and unstable that he never was capable of sound contractual practices...that his business "acumen" is just what we see - that of a petulant child who really does not know what he's doing, other than how to destroy, how to be destructive and harmful to satisfy his power-driven ego...the only thing "large" about him. And we've only just begun.
12
Well stated. All true. And none of this is a surprise. I thought before the inauguration that Mr. Trump is sane, but he is not even that.
We have petulant, narcissistic, ignorant, moronic, insane USA president.
We have petulant, narcissistic, ignorant, moronic, insane USA president.
5
Trump is a simpleton. If Americans weren't even more simple, Trump would be a shoe-shine boy.
2
"And the biggest losers, as with health care, will be white working-class voters who were foolish enough to believe that Donald Trump was on their side."
Krugman can't help but throw in a taunt at the end. Fact is that Trump is a master con artist and folks shouldn't feel terrible about joining the club of the conned, which includes high flying financiers who lent him billions that he never repaid. But I hope most Trump voters will be smart enough to abandon him as the reality of the hapless President Trump sets in.
Krugman can't help but throw in a taunt at the end. Fact is that Trump is a master con artist and folks shouldn't feel terrible about joining the club of the conned, which includes high flying financiers who lent him billions that he never repaid. But I hope most Trump voters will be smart enough to abandon him as the reality of the hapless President Trump sets in.
2
I'm sorry but people who voted for Trump should feel terrible. They heard him spouting nonsense, racism and misogyny and they still voted for him and that's inexcusable on every level.
1
The moves most of our politicians have made, to protect industries that feel every regulation is a hindrance to their bottom line, it's no surprise that people, employed or unemployed, have been unable to retrain for new jobs or that there's been a ton of outsourcing going on. It's easier to whine that there is no qualified person for a job than it is to train an experienced worker for said job. It's easier to blame the unemployed person who is no position to take out loans for courses to re-educate himself rather than have policies in place to cover the costs of retraining so that an unemployed person whose skills are outdated can find a job that pays.
This entire country is in danger of becoming an industrial backwater. We have politicians in both parties who do not understand or care, one of the two or both, that trickle down economics is a failure, that helping the rich doesn't help the working people, and that as our share of the pie diminishes we are angrier than ever. We work hard. We want to be able to support ourselves and our families. Yet nearly every move made by a GOP dominated country has hurt the very people they claim to care about. Cuts in programs like Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment, and even to clinics such as Planned Parenthood contribute to the feelings most of us have now that being born rich is the only guarantee of a good life in America.
This entire country is in danger of becoming an industrial backwater. We have politicians in both parties who do not understand or care, one of the two or both, that trickle down economics is a failure, that helping the rich doesn't help the working people, and that as our share of the pie diminishes we are angrier than ever. We work hard. We want to be able to support ourselves and our families. Yet nearly every move made by a GOP dominated country has hurt the very people they claim to care about. Cuts in programs like Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment, and even to clinics such as Planned Parenthood contribute to the feelings most of us have now that being born rich is the only guarantee of a good life in America.
16
Why is the loss of manufacturing jobs such a terrible thing? The entire campaign has taken it for granted that somehow blue-collar workers are the "real Americans" and the rest of the country (and the world) has to bend over backwards to bring back the 1950s. Instead of trying to revive the past, how about looking to the future? There are jobs a-plenty in clean energy, biotechnology, health, and tourism. Some of the Rust Belt towns I've been to are situated near beautiful nature sites that could be a magnet for national and international tourism. But developing tourist industry requires entrepreneurship, education and global openness - all the qualities that the people in these towns lack. Tiny Iceland managed to pull itself out of a terrible financial crisis by aggressively promoting itself as a major tourist destination and putting everybody to work in service industries. I've been to Iceland - it is beautiful but not more so than Colorado or North Dakota. The difference is that it has an educated, optimistic and broad-minded population who are willing to work instead of begging for salvation from the Dear Leader. I hope the Rust Belt rusts some more - maybe then the people there come to their senses.
28
Why? Because not too long ago the Democratic Party was singing the praises of it's organized labor wing. Now they've been relegated to the regressive pile of deplorables.
Racists? The Democratic Party had no problem when racists were voting for New Deal policies. In fact they probably could not have been passes without the racist vote.
BTW, the things you are saying were also said in the 1980's but then Reagan was president so they were bad words. Now they're progressive insights.
Get it?
Racists? The Democratic Party had no problem when racists were voting for New Deal policies. In fact they probably could not have been passes without the racist vote.
BTW, the things you are saying were also said in the 1980's but then Reagan was president so they were bad words. Now they're progressive insights.
Get it?
One of the more memorable moments of the Trump campaign for me was his visit to Ambridge, PA as the accompanying photo shows, where he told a youngish crowd that he was going to bring back manufacturing, the steel industry in particular. A few miles to the west in Youngstown, OH, we suffered through the same demise of the steel industry only on a much larger scale. The steel industry was in trouble for years before the first salvo of plant closings hit. It was 1977 and 5,000 people were let go in a single day. There hasn't been much hiring around here since. Anyone working in the mills in 1977 is now well past 60 and either dead of old age or past retirement age. The great industrial devolution was complete within 15 years. One charlatan after another came to town promising to make it like it was when "the mills wuz runnin'," I thought we had seen it all when Sir Malcom Wrenn of the UK proposed the building of a factory to produce blimps. It was like a scene from "Monty Python's Flying Circus". But Trump's visit to Ambridge eclipsed that one by a large margin. "Those jobs are gone and they're not coming back" said Bill Clinton, the only presidential candidate to ever say that, in 1992. Times have changed in the last 40 years, and then back again. Or, in other words, here we go again.
8
More complex is so true. You mention many factors allowing for manufacturing jobs to be shipped off-shore but missed one, more than one but I'll just touch on one -- the cost of transportation.
The cost of moving goods around the globe has generally been decreasing moving the cost benefit analysis toward off-shore manufacturing. There are more and larger ships on the seas now than ever in the world's history. According to the European Maritime Safety Agency from 2006 to 2015 the total maritime fleet increased by about 25% with most of those increases in the container and bulk fleets that carry the goods to US ports.
During the oil shortage the cost of shipping increased significantly. This change the cost equation for off-shore vs domestic production to a point where manufacturing became cheaper domestically for many large and heavy products, appliances for example, that production of those goods started moving back to the US. Then came the global recession in 2008 and the cost of fuel went back down, removing that cost.
This administration and the republican party overall supports increased oil production which helps that industry at the expense of the manufacturing industry and the industries of some of the raw goods used by it, such as steel.
There are many other factors in the balancing of trade that ideologues don't consider and refuse to get advice on from professional economists.
The cost of moving goods around the globe has generally been decreasing moving the cost benefit analysis toward off-shore manufacturing. There are more and larger ships on the seas now than ever in the world's history. According to the European Maritime Safety Agency from 2006 to 2015 the total maritime fleet increased by about 25% with most of those increases in the container and bulk fleets that carry the goods to US ports.
During the oil shortage the cost of shipping increased significantly. This change the cost equation for off-shore vs domestic production to a point where manufacturing became cheaper domestically for many large and heavy products, appliances for example, that production of those goods started moving back to the US. Then came the global recession in 2008 and the cost of fuel went back down, removing that cost.
This administration and the republican party overall supports increased oil production which helps that industry at the expense of the manufacturing industry and the industries of some of the raw goods used by it, such as steel.
There are many other factors in the balancing of trade that ideologues don't consider and refuse to get advice on from professional economists.
6
Paul’s vision condemns generations of American workers, unfit by training and decades of work history to other than relatively commoditized labor, to dystopian lives outside any version of a productive American dream. The solutions we craft (for ALL of humanity -- the forces that destroy middle-class jobs, notably including automation, will exert themselves on EVERY society) will need TIME to craft, then more time to introduce. We need to build in the generational breathing room to give us the time to fashion effective transitions to the obsolescence of human labor starting with its most commoditized.
Taking back SOME manufacturing production jobs from Mexico and other trade partners offers ONE opportunity to help create that breathing space. Steel with a coating of rust is still steel, and it takes a LONG time to rust-through.
Our decades’-long commitment to “expanding world trade” was fashioned largely to allow a shattered world after WWII to regain its footing and some measure of prosperity, to better serve as markets for OUR goods and services but also for reasons of a shared humanity. But that excessive balance in their favor now needs to end: trade needs to contribute as much to OUR well-being as to Mexico’s and others of the Pacific Rim.
ANY successful efforts to transition us to global economies characterized by little available human labor WILL be disruptive. Anything that draws that out and mitigates the impacts on human beings needs to be carefully supported.
Taking back SOME manufacturing production jobs from Mexico and other trade partners offers ONE opportunity to help create that breathing space. Steel with a coating of rust is still steel, and it takes a LONG time to rust-through.
Our decades’-long commitment to “expanding world trade” was fashioned largely to allow a shattered world after WWII to regain its footing and some measure of prosperity, to better serve as markets for OUR goods and services but also for reasons of a shared humanity. But that excessive balance in their favor now needs to end: trade needs to contribute as much to OUR well-being as to Mexico’s and others of the Pacific Rim.
ANY successful efforts to transition us to global economies characterized by little available human labor WILL be disruptive. Anything that draws that out and mitigates the impacts on human beings needs to be carefully supported.
Just finished reading Empire of Cotton---the lesson from a history of just one industry, which Trump's rust belt fans will learn the hard way, is that forces that drive capitalism are relentless---attempting to control those forces artificiality always backfire on those populations that were supposed to be helped by them.
6
The rust belt did not appear overnight nor did the rise of high tech industries on the west coast and the rise of east coast as the financhial center of America. The decline in american manufacturing is not at all a surprise given the arrival of competitors on a global scale. Manufacturing has become a commodity and like any commodity subject to the pressures of currency exchange rates , local regulations and rates of return on investment.
A painting by Picasso may fetch millions because it is unique, but selling cars into the global markets is competitive and highly price dependent. Airplanes can be made anywhere, Airbus and Boeing compete on price. If our East and West coasts are thriving , maybe the rust belt should send observers to those areas to learn a thing or two about the role of education, diversification and finance and also the types of industries that will do well going into this century forward and stop looking at their yesterdays with nostalgia and the idea that we can go back to those times with tariffs . It didn't work for Hoover and it's not going to work for Trump ! It also will not work for England !!
A painting by Picasso may fetch millions because it is unique, but selling cars into the global markets is competitive and highly price dependent. Airplanes can be made anywhere, Airbus and Boeing compete on price. If our East and West coasts are thriving , maybe the rust belt should send observers to those areas to learn a thing or two about the role of education, diversification and finance and also the types of industries that will do well going into this century forward and stop looking at their yesterdays with nostalgia and the idea that we can go back to those times with tariffs . It didn't work for Hoover and it's not going to work for Trump ! It also will not work for England !!
7
The Professor explains things in simple words. Hopefully somehow it will reach those peoples who take their information from Fox and similar outlets, many of them web sites that in turn follow the lies disseminated by all those corrupted Think Tanks that have fallen under the control of the Koch bros. and their claque.
But it happens often , people admire most those who are ripping them apart and vote for those who will hurt them in every possible way.
We need as a nation to reach for new highs in technology, science, productivity no for new lows and isolationism.
But it happens often , people admire most those who are ripping them apart and vote for those who will hurt them in every possible way.
We need as a nation to reach for new highs in technology, science, productivity no for new lows and isolationism.
5
The question about the trump administration is whether we will have a depression or "merely" a recession? In 2001, Republicans controlled Congress and the presidency at the same for the first time in 45 years, and we came very close to having a depression. Had McCain been elected, we surely would have done so, but Obama's policies, while not totally adequate, saved us. Now with a nutty, perhaps mentally deranged person as president, and with the same policies as Bush or even more extreme, we are going to be confronted with the same results, or worse. If there were a god, we could pray for protection, but we are our own, and with the tea party mentality, we are doomed unless we disrupt trump and his fellow ignorant supporters.
4
I beg every American to consider where their machines come from. Where do their electronics come from?
The Joe average hasn't a clue - we don't actually MAKE electronic things in this country anymore. Sure, we design a lot of things (this is why all Apple products say "Designed in Cupertino"). But the actual manufacture of electronics goods happens offshore - companies most Americans have never heard of like TSMC (Taiwan), and some they know well, like Samsung (Korea). And the mainland China manufacturing engine has grown sharp and efficient. How much of the U.S. military command and control systems are actually manufactured in this country? Does anyone realize - if China shuts up our supply, we won't get any more iPhones, or WebCams, or dare I say, weapons systems for F35s.
There was one remaining secure electronics fabrication facility in the US. It used to be owned by IBM. IBM sold it to Global Foundries, which is owned by the UAE. We don't control the products we use anymore. They are generated for us by foreign powers. Is there a Chinese "back door" in every Amazon Echo or Smart TV you've bugged your homes with? Do you realize everything you say in the presence of those devices is piped into "the cloud" somewhere to be decoded?
Making enemies out of the people who control our modern devices is a very, very, very bad idea. And it's not a simple matter of slapping on a tariff to regain control. We lost long ago.
We need diplomacy, not bluster.
The Joe average hasn't a clue - we don't actually MAKE electronic things in this country anymore. Sure, we design a lot of things (this is why all Apple products say "Designed in Cupertino"). But the actual manufacture of electronics goods happens offshore - companies most Americans have never heard of like TSMC (Taiwan), and some they know well, like Samsung (Korea). And the mainland China manufacturing engine has grown sharp and efficient. How much of the U.S. military command and control systems are actually manufactured in this country? Does anyone realize - if China shuts up our supply, we won't get any more iPhones, or WebCams, or dare I say, weapons systems for F35s.
There was one remaining secure electronics fabrication facility in the US. It used to be owned by IBM. IBM sold it to Global Foundries, which is owned by the UAE. We don't control the products we use anymore. They are generated for us by foreign powers. Is there a Chinese "back door" in every Amazon Echo or Smart TV you've bugged your homes with? Do you realize everything you say in the presence of those devices is piped into "the cloud" somewhere to be decoded?
Making enemies out of the people who control our modern devices is a very, very, very bad idea. And it's not a simple matter of slapping on a tariff to regain control. We lost long ago.
We need diplomacy, not bluster.
6
Manufacturing jobs will never return in any significant numbers. Companies might manufacture more onshore but it will be done with robots not people. Working class people in the rust belt need to get their children into good universities so they have a chance in the knowledge economy and the government needs to provide those left behind with at least a basic standard of living via a guaranteed income and health insurance or accelerated job training programs. With no core economy, jobs in home construction will not be available and unless the government employs large numbers of working class people in infrastructure projects then the only alternative will be working in retail for the lowest wages possible. This is a recipe for a continued national malaise if not worse. The myth of the Republican party is that the US was built by a legion of fearless entrepreneurs fighting the government regulator at every turn. The reality is that America was built by huge corporations, employing hundreds of thousands of workers in partnership with government (through their lobbyists) and (reluctantly) unions. Socialism is the answer for the US...we need a party of the working class led by members of the working class not by oligarchs who speak in the name of the working class. Bernie Sanders is absolutely the right spokesperson for these ideas and once Democrats get over their Clinton hang-over they ought to give Bernieism another look. It's our only hope as a nation.
10
Bernieism and Trumpism are joined at the hip on trade. Bernie put Hillary on the defensive re trade from which she could not recover. Follow Bernie and lose.
Profits are at all time highs. The stock market is at an all time high. Growing billionaires is a national pastime. If Trump wanted to help the rust belt, he would tax the enormous wealth that our economy has generated for those at the top and send it back to the rust belt in the form of vocational technical training so the people will have the skills for the new economy. He would provide healthcare for them so they will be fit to work. He would infuse their areas with infrastructure spending which will spur further growth and development.
He will do none of these. He will do the opposite. If there is infrastructure spending, it will goto the big cities because that's where it will have the greatest benefit, not in small town USA population 7000.
I almost hope he does start a trade war. A big trade war. Then, when the rust belt jobs that are left vanish, his supporters will get what they asked for. Change.
He will do none of these. He will do the opposite. If there is infrastructure spending, it will goto the big cities because that's where it will have the greatest benefit, not in small town USA population 7000.
I almost hope he does start a trade war. A big trade war. Then, when the rust belt jobs that are left vanish, his supporters will get what they asked for. Change.
13
Sorry Krugman, but the beginning of the manufacturing slide and decrease of the wealth of the middle class began in October 1973.
With the first oil embargo which was followed by Americans realizing that imported vehicles, especially from Japan were more reliable in terms of starting and fuel economy. By the early 1980's Honda had it right. Low level mundane issues? Yes but one has to understand the consumer mindset that helped drive much of the increase in imports. That was the beginning of the Rust Belt but few would recognize it at the time.
Now barely 45% of vehicles sold in this country are assembled here and that counts vehicles assembled in Mexico and Canada as US manufacture. You have seen the same trends in other sectors of durable and consumer goods. There have been some gains in manufacturing in the south and in Wisconsin (so there's that).
Automation is responsible for jobs loss? If that were the case we would still be seeing those Made in the USA labels on most of our consumer goods.
Now we have the Democrats singing the praises of globalism and open trade policies and you want to blame Reagan. Once the UAW wing of the Democratic Party was singing "Buy American" and "Out of a job yet? Keep buying foreign." Now those ideas are considered regressive and a bit racist (and deplorable).
You're too funny Krugman. Weren't you in that movie "Other People's Money"?
With the first oil embargo which was followed by Americans realizing that imported vehicles, especially from Japan were more reliable in terms of starting and fuel economy. By the early 1980's Honda had it right. Low level mundane issues? Yes but one has to understand the consumer mindset that helped drive much of the increase in imports. That was the beginning of the Rust Belt but few would recognize it at the time.
Now barely 45% of vehicles sold in this country are assembled here and that counts vehicles assembled in Mexico and Canada as US manufacture. You have seen the same trends in other sectors of durable and consumer goods. There have been some gains in manufacturing in the south and in Wisconsin (so there's that).
Automation is responsible for jobs loss? If that were the case we would still be seeing those Made in the USA labels on most of our consumer goods.
Now we have the Democrats singing the praises of globalism and open trade policies and you want to blame Reagan. Once the UAW wing of the Democratic Party was singing "Buy American" and "Out of a job yet? Keep buying foreign." Now those ideas are considered regressive and a bit racist (and deplorable).
You're too funny Krugman. Weren't you in that movie "Other People's Money"?
2
"Mr. Trump is much more enthusiastic about punishing people than he is about helping them." That about says it all; thank you for saying it so bluntly.
604
In the NYT ecosystem of irrational hate of Trump. Mr Krugman stands out as one of the few to have a rational hate.
1
People hate Trump for many reasons, his greed, selfishness, dishonesty, bigotry, narcissism, misogyny...... All of these are rational reasons to hate someone.
'Funny, isn’t it, how all the deficit scolds have gone quiet?'
I noticed that. I hope they haven't forgotten about the national debt
I noticed that. I hope they haven't forgotten about the national debt
2
"...and we can also look at what happened during the Reagan years, which in some ways represent a dress rehearsal for what’s coming."
To paraphrase Marx: all great historical figures appear, so to speak, twice: first as tragedy, then as farce.
To paraphrase Marx: all great historical figures appear, so to speak, twice: first as tragedy, then as farce.
3
Washington hasn't served all Americans well for many years. Its been totally gridlocked and wether the Democrats or Republicans were in power the approval ratings of the federal government have long been in the tank. While I may not agree with Trump's approach I at least appreciate the effort to poke the Washington self-dealing elites from both parties. They got way too comfortable and got used to always getting the royal treatment when the cameras weren't rolling. And as The NYT's Washington Bureau Chief said in his book "This Town" the biggest change he witnessed in D.C. over the last ten years is elected officials on both sides now going there mainly to get rich. I don't know about tenured professors but in all the jobs that regular people have you get fired for self dealing.
We just got back from Mexico. The peso was trading at about 21:1 against the dollar. A year ago when we were there, it was trading at about 12:1. People we spoke with in Mexico think the peso is going to get even weaker against the dollar as Trumpanomics gets going. My guess is that the exchange rate will have at least as much to do in the short term with prices on both side of the border as whatever "tax" or tariff Trump invokes.
As other letter writers have said, I'm not an economist or import/export tax specialist, but I think that even those of us with limited expertise in these areas can see where this is going. As the Mexican economy gets damaged by Trumpanomics and his wall envy obsession, the peso will continue to weaken. They will have less and less ability to import our increasingly expensive goods, nor will their workers earn as much or even stay employed. Not being willing to starve to death, they will reverse the trend of recent years and start coming north looking for work. So we can have more undocumented immigrants, more competition in our domestic labor market, just as many imports and reduced exports, plus Mexico might decide to stop cooperating with us to reduce the flow of asylum seekers / economic immigrants from even further south.
So, I'm not an economist or import/export tax specialist, but then again, neither is Donald Trump. Unfortunately, he is the president.
As other letter writers have said, I'm not an economist or import/export tax specialist, but I think that even those of us with limited expertise in these areas can see where this is going. As the Mexican economy gets damaged by Trumpanomics and his wall envy obsession, the peso will continue to weaken. They will have less and less ability to import our increasingly expensive goods, nor will their workers earn as much or even stay employed. Not being willing to starve to death, they will reverse the trend of recent years and start coming north looking for work. So we can have more undocumented immigrants, more competition in our domestic labor market, just as many imports and reduced exports, plus Mexico might decide to stop cooperating with us to reduce the flow of asylum seekers / economic immigrants from even further south.
So, I'm not an economist or import/export tax specialist, but then again, neither is Donald Trump. Unfortunately, he is the president.
5
Krugman says: 'Notably, it was under Reagan that talk of “deindustrialization” and the use of the term “Rust Belt” first became widespread.' Well, now with Google Books n-gram viewer, you can actually check this stuff, and he is quite correct:
https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=Rust+Belt%2Cdeindustrializ...
Interesting stuff, tracking the usage of language and thinking about its implications.
https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=Rust+Belt%2Cdeindustrializ...
Interesting stuff, tracking the usage of language and thinking about its implications.
1
White working-class voters were less foolish and more mean-spirited than anything else if the pushed the lever for Trump.
Let's not forget the racist, sexist component to this last cycle, as that was, for sure the deciding factor.
Trump will destroy us all if we let him.
Let's not forget the racist, sexist component to this last cycle, as that was, for sure the deciding factor.
Trump will destroy us all if we let him.
3
Paul, who is on their side? When you go back to Reagan, you are talking about my entire adult years. There weren't any Democrats in that time to hold the line on minimum wage? And please, don't wish these men in the ditch, ill, for if and when they fail, guess who is up next? And, there will always be someone in the ditch - don't let him fail.
Finally some economic common sense to this debate. But Krugman doesn't go far enough. Since the Bush administration, through Obama's eight years we've already cut 10 Trillion dollars in taxes. Latest date says that 96% of the income gains from this cut went to the top 1% of households.
But for Paul Ryan and the GOP even that's not enough. They want to double down on those cuts, all the while claiming that this massive wealth transfer will stimulate the economy and benefit everyone. Bush said the same thing when he cut a deal to bring back a trillion dollars of overseas US capital by reducing their tax to 5%.
Neither the tax cut nor the capital repatriation stimulated the economy where it needed it the most. Obama's vaunted 'recovery' has been good for the top 10% wage earners, magnificent for the top 1%, but the other 90% has either been stagnant or in decline.
These numbers reflect the deep crisis that we're in more than they actually cause it. Unless steps are taken through a variety of mechanisms to stem this upward flow of capital, things will only get worse. When they do, the real question is what will happen after Trump?
But for Paul Ryan and the GOP even that's not enough. They want to double down on those cuts, all the while claiming that this massive wealth transfer will stimulate the economy and benefit everyone. Bush said the same thing when he cut a deal to bring back a trillion dollars of overseas US capital by reducing their tax to 5%.
Neither the tax cut nor the capital repatriation stimulated the economy where it needed it the most. Obama's vaunted 'recovery' has been good for the top 10% wage earners, magnificent for the top 1%, but the other 90% has either been stagnant or in decline.
These numbers reflect the deep crisis that we're in more than they actually cause it. Unless steps are taken through a variety of mechanisms to stem this upward flow of capital, things will only get worse. When they do, the real question is what will happen after Trump?
3
The Donald is an artist, not a politician. His art form is embracing and caricaturizing human nature, especially it's weaknesses. Of course he lies. No caricature of human nature would be complete without lies. Therefore it will do no good to try to counter him by exposing his lies. He has no power unless we give it to him. Try ignoring him. There is only one of him and 350 million of us. If he does something bad, we have nobody to blame but ourselves.
The neo con Krugman?
A fair non onerous tax on de facto slave labor countries like China, Vietnam, Mexico etc. is the way to go.
America cannot compete with these countries.
After the tax, if an American country cannot compete let the company go to prevent protectionism.
Prices will go up slightly on these goods but the resulting increase with Americans with decent paying jobs will more than offset it.
This does not apply to countries like Japan, Canada, Europe etc. that give their workers livable wages.
Ideas like the "neo con" Krugman posted here helped to elect the demagogue Trump in the rust belt.
Seems like the rust belt voters know more than Krugman. He should visit the area.
A fair non onerous tax on de facto slave labor countries like China, Vietnam, Mexico etc. is the way to go.
America cannot compete with these countries.
After the tax, if an American country cannot compete let the company go to prevent protectionism.
Prices will go up slightly on these goods but the resulting increase with Americans with decent paying jobs will more than offset it.
This does not apply to countries like Japan, Canada, Europe etc. that give their workers livable wages.
Ideas like the "neo con" Krugman posted here helped to elect the demagogue Trump in the rust belt.
Seems like the rust belt voters know more than Krugman. He should visit the area.
3
paul
blyn
"This does not apply to countries like Japan, Canada, Europe etc. that give their workers livable wages."
Really?
blyn
"This does not apply to countries like Japan, Canada, Europe etc. that give their workers livable wages."
Really?
1
Thank you for your reply John...yes re my answer. We may have some other issues with the countries mentioned by you but not de facto slave labor
1
Hillary and other democrats had plans for government money to support retraining of the unemployed and for investment in newer industries such as renewable energy. The rust belt decline has to be rechanneled into new areas of productivity. Trying to resurrect the past will not work (Trumpism). Already renewable energy industries employ hundreds of thousands of workers. Coal, for example, employs 50 thousand and has been in steady decline for years predating Obama.
Unfortunately, we have now signed up for at least 4 years of stagnation and 4 years of enriching the billionaire members of the Trump cabinet.
Unfortunately, we have now signed up for at least 4 years of stagnation and 4 years of enriching the billionaire members of the Trump cabinet.
3
Trump is in way over his head! Every day he has been POTUS he demonstrates he can't think his way out of a paper bag, and generally his solutions are directed to doing harm rather than good. And why is Trump so punishment oriented (as Krugman mentioned)?
When it comes to being president of the most powerful country in the world, psychology and character matter--which many Americans may realize the longer Obama is no longer president and Trump is.
Frankly, I am very worried about Trump's cognitive and emotional processing. Trump appears to think in very black-and-white, simplified, either-or terms--no nuance, no shades of gray, no compromises, no grasp of perspectives or views other than his own at the moment. And emotionally, he acts like a young child (egocentric, impulsive without understanding the consequences of his behavior, tantrums, etc.).
But this is what I keep wondering:
1. Is this is merely Trump's public media persona and sales pitch that he knows resonates with the thinking and anger of Americans likely to support him and who will not question his authority. Or
2. Is Trump truly limited cognitively and emotionally and essentially unfit to be POTUS?
Either way, this country has a very serious problem on its hands. Trump clearly sees himself as THE Decider. But given a choice, why is it Trump so often makes an uninformed and wrong one that increases the likelihood of harm--making the rust belt rustier, building that Wall, etc., etc.??
Psychology matters
When it comes to being president of the most powerful country in the world, psychology and character matter--which many Americans may realize the longer Obama is no longer president and Trump is.
Frankly, I am very worried about Trump's cognitive and emotional processing. Trump appears to think in very black-and-white, simplified, either-or terms--no nuance, no shades of gray, no compromises, no grasp of perspectives or views other than his own at the moment. And emotionally, he acts like a young child (egocentric, impulsive without understanding the consequences of his behavior, tantrums, etc.).
But this is what I keep wondering:
1. Is this is merely Trump's public media persona and sales pitch that he knows resonates with the thinking and anger of Americans likely to support him and who will not question his authority. Or
2. Is Trump truly limited cognitively and emotionally and essentially unfit to be POTUS?
Either way, this country has a very serious problem on its hands. Trump clearly sees himself as THE Decider. But given a choice, why is it Trump so often makes an uninformed and wrong one that increases the likelihood of harm--making the rust belt rustier, building that Wall, etc., etc.??
Psychology matters
2
Every trade deal the US has made was a zero-sum game, not between countries and the capitalist oligarchies for which they exist, but between the workers of each country and their capitalist employers. The capitalists got what they wanted; the workers--in all countries, not just the US--got shafted.
Trump could easily de-incentivize immigration and help workers across the world by one simple edict: Internationalize US wage and labor and working conditions law. Make our trading partners treat their workers as well as the US forces domestic companies to treat its own (when they have jobs, and they aren't paid under the table as illegals), or we don't buy from them.
Trump is right that our trade treaties need to be renegotiated. This time, instead of negotiating to protect and enrich our capitalists, the priority should be to protect and support workers in the US and across the world.
If Krugman could lose the partisan blinders, he might just be able to see as much. For so long as he sees things as Republican vs. Democrat oligarchical rule, and not capitalist oligarch versus exploited workers, he'll be confused when the politics don't turn out like he imagined.
Mr. Krugman, have you not yet realized that the Trump phenomenon and the Sanders phenomenon were two sides of the same coin? This ain't about some tired old screed for or against Reagan. They both were grass roots movements to redirect government representation from the oligarchs to the people.
Trump could easily de-incentivize immigration and help workers across the world by one simple edict: Internationalize US wage and labor and working conditions law. Make our trading partners treat their workers as well as the US forces domestic companies to treat its own (when they have jobs, and they aren't paid under the table as illegals), or we don't buy from them.
Trump is right that our trade treaties need to be renegotiated. This time, instead of negotiating to protect and enrich our capitalists, the priority should be to protect and support workers in the US and across the world.
If Krugman could lose the partisan blinders, he might just be able to see as much. For so long as he sees things as Republican vs. Democrat oligarchical rule, and not capitalist oligarch versus exploited workers, he'll be confused when the politics don't turn out like he imagined.
Mr. Krugman, have you not yet realized that the Trump phenomenon and the Sanders phenomenon were two sides of the same coin? This ain't about some tired old screed for or against Reagan. They both were grass roots movements to redirect government representation from the oligarchs to the people.
4
I thought that I had seen this movie once before – and then I remembered I had. One more time of citizens playing out their movie role. Does this seem as though we just saw the movie yesterday? That is the dialogue between Captain Queeg (Humphrey Bogart) and the wonderful character actor, Whit Bissell as the Navy psychiatrist.
Jose Ferrer questions Whit Bissell the Navy’s Psychiatrist
My background is legal, not medical.
My questions might be elementary.
the main problem concerns
childhood inferiority feelings, -
- aggravated by adult experiences.
- what were those adult experiences?
- He'd undergone a lot of strain.
Long, arduous combat duty.
That's all I can say.
- would he easily admit mistakes?
- None of us do.
- would he be a perfectionist?
- Yes.
Inclined to hound subordinates
about small details?
- would he find people hostile?
- That's part of the picture.
If criticised,
would he feel unjustly persecuted?
It all stems from the premise
that he must try to be perfect.
You have testified that these
symptoms exist in Queeg's behaviour:
Rigidity of personality,
feelings of persecution, -
- and a neurotic certainty
he is always right.
Isn't there one psychiatric term
for this illness?
- I never mentioned any illness.
- Thank you for the correction.
what would you call a personality
with all these symptoms?
A paranoid personality.
But that is not a disabling illness.
- what kind of personality?
- Paranoid.
Jose Ferrer questions Whit Bissell the Navy’s Psychiatrist
My background is legal, not medical.
My questions might be elementary.
the main problem concerns
childhood inferiority feelings, -
- aggravated by adult experiences.
- what were those adult experiences?
- He'd undergone a lot of strain.
Long, arduous combat duty.
That's all I can say.
- would he easily admit mistakes?
- None of us do.
- would he be a perfectionist?
- Yes.
Inclined to hound subordinates
about small details?
- would he find people hostile?
- That's part of the picture.
If criticised,
would he feel unjustly persecuted?
It all stems from the premise
that he must try to be perfect.
You have testified that these
symptoms exist in Queeg's behaviour:
Rigidity of personality,
feelings of persecution, -
- and a neurotic certainty
he is always right.
Isn't there one psychiatric term
for this illness?
- I never mentioned any illness.
- Thank you for the correction.
what would you call a personality
with all these symptoms?
A paranoid personality.
But that is not a disabling illness.
- what kind of personality?
- Paranoid.
2
If we use our imaginations we can find useful work for those in the Rust Belt and rural areas who have been left behind. Some of it will require training, but the needs are there: addiction services, elder care, home health aides, child care, road repair, bridge repair, and home repairs, among others. We can fund this enterprise if we choose to do so (see Iraq War, Afghanistan War, Dept. of Homeland Security).
8
It doesn't matter how much we imagine it if rust belt residents aren't willing to tackle any of it.
The terrible show that the presidency is turning out to be pervades all media, conversation, and culture. The short-sightedness of it is sickening. Those unlucky enough to be in America during this period are on a psychologically damaging trance that we cannot snap out of.
What I really want to know is how incredibly foolish this looks from the outside? Surely a vast majority of foreign citizens and leaders must be astonished an horrified by what they see.
What I really want to know is how incredibly foolish this looks from the outside? Surely a vast majority of foreign citizens and leaders must be astonished an horrified by what they see.
7
Yep, we are horrified.
I'd like to present the simple arithmetic of the proposed tariff. I think it sheds some light on the thinking of the Trump administration.
US imports from Mexico amount to $300B annually. A 20% tariff would raise roughly $60B in the first year (ignoring any decline in imports).
To pay for a $4B wall, you'd need to impose the tariff for about three and a half weeks. To pay for a $20B wall, you'd need it for about four months.
Yet they appear to be proposing a permanent tariff. How much is that permanent tariff worth?
The net present value of a permanent tariff, assuming no decline in imports, discounted at today's 10-year treasury note rate is roughly $2.5 trillion.
To sum up, the Trump administration is proposing to raise a $2.5 trillion stream of tariff payments, in order to pay for a $20B wall.
Plausibly, nobody on Trump's team bothered to do the math. Cannot discount that possibility.
But more plausibly, nobody cared. To me, th huge discrepancy between the stream of tariff payments and the cost of the wall suggests that the wall is just an excuse. What they really want is tariffs. For whatever reason. The wall is just a convenient way to get that ball rolling.
US imports from Mexico amount to $300B annually. A 20% tariff would raise roughly $60B in the first year (ignoring any decline in imports).
To pay for a $4B wall, you'd need to impose the tariff for about three and a half weeks. To pay for a $20B wall, you'd need it for about four months.
Yet they appear to be proposing a permanent tariff. How much is that permanent tariff worth?
The net present value of a permanent tariff, assuming no decline in imports, discounted at today's 10-year treasury note rate is roughly $2.5 trillion.
To sum up, the Trump administration is proposing to raise a $2.5 trillion stream of tariff payments, in order to pay for a $20B wall.
Plausibly, nobody on Trump's team bothered to do the math. Cannot discount that possibility.
But more plausibly, nobody cared. To me, th huge discrepancy between the stream of tariff payments and the cost of the wall suggests that the wall is just an excuse. What they really want is tariffs. For whatever reason. The wall is just a convenient way to get that ball rolling.
3
You are probably right that the administration wants a tariff to harm Mexico and is just casting around for a reason to do it, but your math is wrong. A large tariff on Mexico only would not collect any revenue, because people would quickly switch to products imported from other countries. What's more, Those other countries, freed from competition from Mexico, would be able raise prices. So consumers pay more, the tariff collects nothing, we make foreigners richer and ourselves poorer and THEN we pay for the wall.
1
All broadly true of course. How must some of the more economically literate Republicans in the senate (let alone organizations like the Chamber of Commerce and those Republican think tanks) be reacting to this one wonders? Paradoxically part of the left are going to support this agenda. Some of the trade unions are already boosting the idea of the border tax which basically a tax consumption. I've never doubted that Trump and the Republicans were do the most harm to the low and middle income whites who voted for him. The most obvious case being the millions who are going to be dumped off their health insurance and handed placebos like HSA's. The harm from some of the economic policies Republicans are planning will be more insidious but probably more serious. Fiascoes loom.
9
Free trade is when countries exchange goods and services competitively with one another in order to reach a just price, and so that nations focus on comparative advantage. Free trade does not mean exchanging labor. If an American company builds a plant in Vietnam in order to sell goods to Asia, that's fine, but not to sell goods to the US at slightly bargain prices. By the way Professor, I am all for free trade in the health care area too.
3
It is very surprising how NAFTA is portrayed as villian for American Manufacturing. If I remember correctly, the discussion in 90s was how America was using its dominance into signing a treaty which will benefit only American big businesses.
As a person who has worked with American companies as a customer, employee or a contractor, I know how complex the operations are. We Indians work for an American company helping a client in, say, Australia and the billing is done from say Japan.
Trump, as a businessman should know this.
If he is still peddling 20% tax on Mexican exports as a panacea, it means that he is either a inept businessman or a conman. Most probably both.
I am surprised that in this day and age there are still people who can still believe all the nonsense Trump doles out.
As a person who has worked with American companies as a customer, employee or a contractor, I know how complex the operations are. We Indians work for an American company helping a client in, say, Australia and the billing is done from say Japan.
Trump, as a businessman should know this.
If he is still peddling 20% tax on Mexican exports as a panacea, it means that he is either a inept businessman or a conman. Most probably both.
I am surprised that in this day and age there are still people who can still believe all the nonsense Trump doles out.
15
Two questions keep me awake at night.
If Trump fails to improve the lives of his supporters, then will they and their next president be even more extreme?
If Trump improves the lives of his supporters, then will his form of governance be the template for a new America?
The future looks bleak.
If Trump fails to improve the lives of his supporters, then will they and their next president be even more extreme?
If Trump improves the lives of his supporters, then will his form of governance be the template for a new America?
The future looks bleak.
7
Some worry about America and WWIII. More likely the USA will just gradually slip into irrelevance. People here living on this giant island province thought the post WWII bubble was "normal," would go on indefinitely. Well, the rest of the world has recovered, joined the party and now can carry on without American hegemony. It's like Paul said in his article, "It's more a matter of psychology."
Trump's need to seem dominant drives all, and that's why we see little policy and a lot of aggression. The wall, as one example, makes less sense as a barrier than it does as an expression of contempt and talk of forcing Mexico to pay for it seems designed to infuriate.
Trumps fans understand ; looking at their comments we see a few talking about renegotiation of treaties and hundreds sneering at and condemning Mexico as a nation. The trade issue to Trump and thelatter is just a way to segue to some nationalist fistpumping, not a way to Make America Marginally Better.
Trumps fans understand ; looking at their comments we see a few talking about renegotiation of treaties and hundreds sneering at and condemning Mexico as a nation. The trade issue to Trump and thelatter is just a way to segue to some nationalist fistpumping, not a way to Make America Marginally Better.
3
President Mad Max will continue to bulldoze through facts, consequences, diplomatic considerations and economics- as none of that matters to him. The sad fact is that only his ego matters. He is a more maniacal, ADHD version of Richard Nixon. The only difference is that now we at the precipice of our position globally- are we to continue our role as world economic leader or degrade into some type of jingoistic, small-thinking country? I think Professor Krugman answered that question for us. Since most of those who voted for Trump live in low-information, Fox News bubbles, they will never know what hit them.
12
With these policies that Trump is proposing, there will be no way that our growth will be the 4% or more that he spoke of during the campaign. And, with his tantrum-throwing approach to diplomacy, we cannot hope to achieve a stable trade environment.
9
@Bevan Davies - The growth will never be 4% or more. We'll be fortunate to see any growth, thanks to the eternally damaging policies of past Presidents and their administrations.
In addition to the loss of manufacturing jobs in America, there has been a major shift in our buying habits. Sure, the Mom and Pop store was a tad more expensive than the big box store, but the loss of the local greengrocer and local store lost Mom and Pop a livelihood as the earnings of the big box stores drained from the local economy into the pockets of far distant captains of industry and their shareholders. One response to depopulation has been the rise of the concept of the Buffalo Commons, where smaller towns may be shuttered entirely in favor of a more regional and sustainable approach including reintroduction of large buffalo herds to the Great Plains. This strategy has also been suggested for declining parts of other areas in the country. Giving Mother Nature a break would not be such a bad thing either. Clearly, change is going to come whether we want it or not. And change will not inevitably Make America Great Again but it will make it different.
2
I would add The Russian Oligarchy Economic Model as a governing influence on Trump.
All his promises were composed as actions of a dictator. Many of his appointments are people devoted to modifying governance to preserve and advance their own vast fortunes. Trump's proposals for the U.S. infrastructure are designed to use national wealth to generate private wealth.
Having absolute wealth and absolute power are the only principles consistently expressed by Trump. His signature business strategy has been the creation of debt structures which spectacularly collapse and yield personal wealth for Trump, and loss for others. His temperament is that of a despot who imagines national interest only as a function of his own status.
Putin and his oligarchic despoilers match the characteristics of Trump's concepts. I imagine that since Trump is a fraud with limited analytical powers, he is intimidated by Putin who is a very successful gangster.
I view Trump as a would be emulator of Putin, a rich boy whose inherited wealth allowed him to assemble an image of fabulous success. Trump's formation by Roy Cohn created a natural attraction to gain power deviously, without having to resort to any productive talent. Putin's gangster power is Trump's actual economic philosophy.
All his promises were composed as actions of a dictator. Many of his appointments are people devoted to modifying governance to preserve and advance their own vast fortunes. Trump's proposals for the U.S. infrastructure are designed to use national wealth to generate private wealth.
Having absolute wealth and absolute power are the only principles consistently expressed by Trump. His signature business strategy has been the creation of debt structures which spectacularly collapse and yield personal wealth for Trump, and loss for others. His temperament is that of a despot who imagines national interest only as a function of his own status.
Putin and his oligarchic despoilers match the characteristics of Trump's concepts. I imagine that since Trump is a fraud with limited analytical powers, he is intimidated by Putin who is a very successful gangster.
I view Trump as a would be emulator of Putin, a rich boy whose inherited wealth allowed him to assemble an image of fabulous success. Trump's formation by Roy Cohn created a natural attraction to gain power deviously, without having to resort to any productive talent. Putin's gangster power is Trump's actual economic philosophy.
7
This is an excellent article about the impacts of Trump tax on import. I'm not going to repeat many good comments about the article. What I will comment on is this. The world is seeing America for what it really is. All the preaching and exhortation about free trade, freedom, human rights, making the world safe for democracy, American values, etc.. is all a big lie. What America really is is selfish, arrogant, cruel, ugly and willing to trample on accepted international laws and norms. I can't believe that I'm writing this but the treatment of our southern neighbor Mexico and the willingness of the Trump administration to toss out the treaties and agreements that have benefited America for the last several decades coupled with the silence of the Democrats is just too revealing that what America presents to the world is just a big lie. And the worse fear about America is just being confirmed.
50
Trump's worst trait among many bad traits is his meanness. He is one of the most overrated businessmen. Sad.
14
As George Orwell said: "In an age of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." 45 gives new meaning to existential angst. When his alma mater refused to endorse him, we all ought to have known how irrational he is. He and the pseudo intellectual Ryan in the House couldn't pass economics 101. They both want to grow the world smaller. They envision a meaner world made still meaner by them. A world of winners and losers. They think we can only win if the rest of the world loses. Us vs. them is neither a philosophy, nor a political position. It is school yard bullying. How to get the electorate to understand what's really going on seems impossible in our tweeting world.
41
I see the divide between Republican and Democrat as a divide between those that believe in simple intuitive solutions to the world's problems and those that see that solutions to complex problems are usually difficult and counterintuitive. As H.L. Mencken famously said, "For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong". The Republican party is the "clear, simple and wrong" party and Trump is their perfect leader. For example: if manufacturing is losing ground all you need to do is throw out some tariffs, make some "Great Deals" and presto problem solved. Immigration issues? Build a wall! Eureka, problem solved! Obamacare is not great? get rid of it and replace it with something great! BAM! The problem is that none of these simple solutions are solutions at all. Trade is complex, Immigration is necessary for the country but it has many complex problems associated with it and Obamacare is a decent opening bid to guarantee what should be a human right.
70
"And the biggest losers, as with health care, will be white working-class voters who were foolish enough to believe that Donald Trump was on their side."
So how did a man as spectacularly damaged and mentally ill as Trump fool so many into voting for him to be president? Well, one thing that might help explain this is to go online and look at episodes of The Atheist Experience on YouTube. I'm not recommending this because I'm and atheist (I am), but because you will get an insight into the mental incapacity of working class White America.
Most of the people calling the show can't construct and argument. They can't even construct coherent sentences. They think that they know what's in their bible but seconds into their calls it's obvious that they don't. And they all are willing to accept the most absurd notions simply because it's what they want to believe; it makes them feel good. It's really frightening in light of what the nation is going through now with Trump, and it's why the nation is now going to go through what it's currently going through for a long, long time.
White working class America is tailor made for serfdom. It's not capable or fit for anything else.
So how did a man as spectacularly damaged and mentally ill as Trump fool so many into voting for him to be president? Well, one thing that might help explain this is to go online and look at episodes of The Atheist Experience on YouTube. I'm not recommending this because I'm and atheist (I am), but because you will get an insight into the mental incapacity of working class White America.
Most of the people calling the show can't construct and argument. They can't even construct coherent sentences. They think that they know what's in their bible but seconds into their calls it's obvious that they don't. And they all are willing to accept the most absurd notions simply because it's what they want to believe; it makes them feel good. It's really frightening in light of what the nation is going through now with Trump, and it's why the nation is now going to go through what it's currently going through for a long, long time.
White working class America is tailor made for serfdom. It's not capable or fit for anything else.
29
A few thoughts. All of Trump's talk has been about globalization as the culprit for manufacturing jobs. Studies have shown that was the initial cause and accounts for about a third of the total losses. The biggest cause? Automation. This is something that is not being discussed in any political campaign, certainly not on a national level. Even if Trump were to bring back every company that left the US, he would only bring back a third to half the number of jobs that left. And they won't be your father's or grandfather's jobs in terms of pay, benefits, and pensions. A few would be high paying technical positions. And many of the new jobs will eventually be put at risk by further advances in automation. Even truck, bus, taxi, and Uber drivers are at risk as driverless cars take to the road. In the short run, infrastructure can pick up some of the slack, but only if infrastructure includes adapting new technologies and building a new electrical grid. His support of fossil fuels may provide a short term boost, but if he ignores 21st century energy technologies (solar, wind nuclear, etc.) then this country is doomed to decline as the rest of the world passes us by (assuming the world survives the impact of global warming). We need straight talk and innovation to address the future.
17
Automation is a predictable economic response to high, relatively uncompetitive wages. Globalization has made wages in the USA relatively high and uncompetitive. Arguing that "automation has hurt employment more than globalization" confuses 2 parts of the same process. If there were less globalization, there would be less automation. The long term solution to the long term decline in manufacturing employment and, one might add, the decline wages, is to lift wages worldwide. This is a very tall order! It would mean transforming the economies of the third world to become as productive as those in Western Europe, North America and Japan without exhausting the world's natural resources and burying us in globally warming pollution. That would take a miracle, wouldn't it? Yes. But I it is the only way forward in the long run, I think.
Take a trip overseas. The rest of the world has already left us behind.
It wasn't long ago (maybe 25 years) that a company would say "our employees are our most important asset." That is never heard today! Every decision made by a company today is to benefit its stockholders. Hence, income inequality.
Sound tax policy can change this overnight: Employee wages are 100% a deductible business expense, while dividends are not, etc.
Income inequality is really the source of our country's division. Yet there is no political will to fix it. Only the myth of trickle down economics that the working poor still hope will one day trickle down to them.
It is a myth sold by Republicans, and as long as enough voters are buying the myth, Republicans will keep selling it.
Wake up America.
Sound tax policy can change this overnight: Employee wages are 100% a deductible business expense, while dividends are not, etc.
Income inequality is really the source of our country's division. Yet there is no political will to fix it. Only the myth of trickle down economics that the working poor still hope will one day trickle down to them.
It is a myth sold by Republicans, and as long as enough voters are buying the myth, Republicans will keep selling it.
Wake up America.
34
My wife is a Trumpite, so each day provides a fascinating window into a world writ-small -- one that requires an array of Social Sciences to grasp.
But the one thing I've learned is this: The eventual backlash of Trumpites against Trump will not emerge slowly.
Basically, Trumpites now believe everything Trump says -- they have an answer or justification (granted, sometimes using a kind of tortured logic) for everything he has done or tweeted so far. As with other populist or movement type figures throughout history, they take Trump as a package. They can't accept some things while rejecting others.
At some point (probably when companies and/or countries start forming blocs against Trump's policies and it starts to materially impact the economy), the dam will burst and all of a sudden they won't believe anything Trump says anymore. For Trumpites, that moment will be like when the Matrix is revealed to Neo in the movie of that name.
But the one thing I've learned is this: The eventual backlash of Trumpites against Trump will not emerge slowly.
Basically, Trumpites now believe everything Trump says -- they have an answer or justification (granted, sometimes using a kind of tortured logic) for everything he has done or tweeted so far. As with other populist or movement type figures throughout history, they take Trump as a package. They can't accept some things while rejecting others.
At some point (probably when companies and/or countries start forming blocs against Trump's policies and it starts to materially impact the economy), the dam will burst and all of a sudden they won't believe anything Trump says anymore. For Trumpites, that moment will be like when the Matrix is revealed to Neo in the movie of that name.
319
My son is a Trumpite. If he is an example of the rest of them, they are going to stick with their candidate until the bitter end at the expense of all of us, regardless of what either their intelligence or intuition is telling them.
274
In answer to Smitty (Versailles) above:
The way we increase manufacturing and become an economic powerhouse, the way Germany is, is to do what Germany does. Provide healthcare and education to everyone through a progressive tax structure that allows the population to flourish economically and socially. There is more healthcare expense in a Ford truck than steel. Reduce the drag on American society of healthcare expenses and treat everyone equally by providing college or trade school. It would promote social cohesion, something woefully lacking in the U.S. today.
The way we increase manufacturing and become an economic powerhouse, the way Germany is, is to do what Germany does. Provide healthcare and education to everyone through a progressive tax structure that allows the population to flourish economically and socially. There is more healthcare expense in a Ford truck than steel. Reduce the drag on American society of healthcare expenses and treat everyone equally by providing college or trade school. It would promote social cohesion, something woefully lacking in the U.S. today.
63
Trump says Mar-a-lago is open to everyone and does not discriminate, period. Pay the 100 per year and you can buy tickets. Great place. Beautiful place. A real gem. Accessible to everyone.
He looks at health care, education and social security through similar lenses.
He looks at health care, education and social security through similar lenses.
6
Actually, you are mistaken. Trump has only 500 Mar-a-Lago memberships, of which about 480 are already sold. The membership now costs $200,000 plus an annual fee of about $15,000. So if that is the model, only the very rich get to buy in. Everyone else loses.
2
The GOP line on health care is that they want more choices and that it's accessible to everyone. Just like you said, just like Mar-a-lago, accessible to everyone, not affordable. Only the rich deserve health care. The rest of you hurry up and die as the rich don't want to pay the .09% tax surcharge on incomes over 200K.
Facts don't mater anymore, if they ever did.
4
This article was so beautifully in intelligently written, unfortunately the people that really need to read this article still look up to Trump as their Savior. These white middle-class Midwest population that put him in office, have no idea how they are about to be screwed. These fear based people are listening to the most fearful man this country has ever produced.
10
Global stability is supported by free trade. We become so dependent on each other that we can fight about it. Eliminate that and you increased the tension for war because the economy slows to a point of crisis.
DJT is a linear thinker, not a strategic thinker. I don't think that he is worried about his legacy as much as he is worried about his day to day ratings and even then, his narcissistic personality will bias the results to his favor.
DJT is a linear thinker, not a strategic thinker. I don't think that he is worried about his legacy as much as he is worried about his day to day ratings and even then, his narcissistic personality will bias the results to his favor.
7
I got into an argument during the campaign with a trump supporter. My closing argument was "I have money; you don't. I will do well with trump (at least in the short run); you won't. Looks like I was right.
15
Buh-Bye, ACA. Buh-Bye Medicaid, Buh-Bye, Medicare. Buh-Bye, Social Security. Welcome to a new age of uncertainty. The carnage is not ending, just US citizens ending up on the "buffet" to be devoured. Those Trump voters thought they would be at the table. Many are now on the menu.
62
Welcome to the new "Predatory Economy".
What I find strange is that while auto companies are pilloried there are glaring exceptions to Trump's attacks.
For example Walmart. Try to think of a Walmart store stocked with goods NOT produced in the Far East. A store with bare shelves.
In another area try to think of an electronics store which would NOT include goods produced in the Far East. Another store with bare shelves. In this instance the US are conspicuously absent from advanced and high technology products.
Any suggestions from Trump and his supporters?
What I find strange is that while auto companies are pilloried there are glaring exceptions to Trump's attacks.
For example Walmart. Try to think of a Walmart store stocked with goods NOT produced in the Far East. A store with bare shelves.
In another area try to think of an electronics store which would NOT include goods produced in the Far East. Another store with bare shelves. In this instance the US are conspicuously absent from advanced and high technology products.
Any suggestions from Trump and his supporters?
3
Most presidents would rather muck around with foreign policy, throwing our money and armaments around. Makes them feel big and powerful. Domestic issues are like your wife nagging you to fix the toilet. Combine that with the man child narcissist we have in office, and Trump will play Risk while the rest of the family sets the house, the car and the tree fort on fire. No one wears the pants in the Republican family.
5
Forget Donald. When it comes to government, he's like one of those old amusement park automatons that spews canned phrases. The only real part of Donald is the whining: his meager inauguration crowds, celebrities mocking his poor debate performances, non-existent hoards of fake voters, journalists picking on him, and on and on and on.
"President" Donald doesn't care about pensions or employment or immigration or anything else, except as it pertains to himself. So maybe it's time to go behind the scenes and find out who is trying to destroy us, and why. And most important, what they have on Donald that's gotten him to go along with this charade.
"President" Donald doesn't care about pensions or employment or immigration or anything else, except as it pertains to himself. So maybe it's time to go behind the scenes and find out who is trying to destroy us, and why. And most important, what they have on Donald that's gotten him to go along with this charade.
29
Many commentators are at a loss to figure out what to do with a monster such as Trump "In charge". May I suggest the following: I refuse to borrow money to impress people I don't like by buying things I don't want.
Simple. Opt out of the system. I lived well for many years w/out a cell phone. I'll continue to do so. My car is 12 years old, and looks new. We may have trouble with Mexico affecting fruits and veggies, so I'll expand my garden. Maybe build a hen house. Somethings do not change- Martin Luther King got it right "That's America- socialism for the rich, free enterprise for the poor" The best way to cripple the system is to opt out.
Simple. Opt out of the system. I lived well for many years w/out a cell phone. I'll continue to do so. My car is 12 years old, and looks new. We may have trouble with Mexico affecting fruits and veggies, so I'll expand my garden. Maybe build a hen house. Somethings do not change- Martin Luther King got it right "That's America- socialism for the rich, free enterprise for the poor" The best way to cripple the system is to opt out.
10
Reagan blew up interest rates? That's a new one. Interest rates were at record highs when Reagan took office and on a trajectory going even higher for the first two years of his administration. Wow!
4
In 2008, Obama pointed out that Bush I, Bush II and Bill Clinton had not tried to correct the inequalities caused by NAFTA and other trade deals. Dubya was worse, since he could see the effects over a longer time span. As quoted, the Obama statement emphasized the part "all they have left are their pickup trucks and religion". What was not quoted by the GOPers was "These people have been abandoned by the Clinton and Bush administrations...". Now the situation is far worse. Trump balmed Clinton for all of this, but the export of manufacturing started in 1982 with Reagan. The GOPers do not want to hear about that.
3
All true. In so many instances, especially in the case of Reagan then and Trump now, have the American people become victims simply because they gave their permission symbolically at the polls. I agree with Krugman that Reagan is given far more credit than he deserves. Russia was ready to topple - it didn't take much effort to make the USSR crumble and cease to exist. Trump has little idea that China could call in their big chip - they have over the years financed U.S. debt. Trump in seven days has indicated such breathtaking contempt for trade partners and alliances that sooner rather than later the snake will bite and it will be the American people who writhe. More insidious - and we the people cannot allow this to happen - are all the signs that this Presidency hungers to rule autocratically. Never in our nature's history has a free press been more crucially important than it is now.
5
Glad to see some debunking of the Reagan myth. But although the word deindustrialization began being used during Reagan's presidency, the process began in the 1970s, as books by Bluestone and Harrison make clear. And it continued up until now, through both Clinton's and Obama's presidencies. Which may be one of the reasons Hilary Clinton was such a poor choice for candidate.
Globalization made deindustrialization easier and corporate leaders pushed it while government acquiesced. Increasingly we are told that the next big job destroyers will be automation. When will we learn that jobs and work are for something other than reinforcing huge corporate profits? As MLK said, paraphrasing anyway, all work has dignity.
Globalization made deindustrialization easier and corporate leaders pushed it while government acquiesced. Increasingly we are told that the next big job destroyers will be automation. When will we learn that jobs and work are for something other than reinforcing huge corporate profits? As MLK said, paraphrasing anyway, all work has dignity.
3
When the obituary is written on this morally corrupt and ignorant administration, I really hope that two key enablers receive their just due for what will surely become a monumental stain on America's ego and reputation. The turtle-whisperer Mitch McConnell and scout-leader Paul Ryan got what they prayed for (what deity did they pray to and find solace in?).
All their public-facing and covert work in creating false narratives, obstructing democratic policy sight unseen and assigning any and all blame to the president (as long as Fox News would promote it) these two "unpatriots" deserve to be prominently recognized for their years of hard work.
All their public-facing and covert work in creating false narratives, obstructing democratic policy sight unseen and assigning any and all blame to the president (as long as Fox News would promote it) these two "unpatriots" deserve to be prominently recognized for their years of hard work.
15
Where I come from they just call it the "shell game." But the answer is not to drive down the dollar. A sound currency is central to the foundation of a strong economy. We need a national policy to direct resources to productive means. Not to the continued financialization economy of banking and real estate brokers in NYC. Yes, and most importantly we need lower health care costs to be on par with the rest of the world. Doctors are important, but America's health care system still does not produce better outcomes even though we pay about twice what the rest of industrialized nations do. The best cars are made in Germany and Japan. There is a message there.
3
Dr. Paul - what we the American people need is a wise President with more than a "three minute attention span" The world economy is far more complex now than it was before the Internet and during Reagan's trickle-down Presidency. Manufacturing is not the purview of just one country for just one product - it is a global enterprise which our 45th President doesn't know from Shinola. The"big league" ("bigly") losers will be the very white working-class low info voters who believed the promises and lies of Donald Trump and elected a whole catastrophe to "make America greater than ever before". The American Rust Belt will stay rusty.
10
“And the biggest losers, as with health care, will be white working-class voters who were foolish enough to believe that Donald Trump was on their side.”
That’s right! The question we should be asking is how can Democrats win those voters back in 2018? That challenge should be our No.1 priority. Taking back the House and Senate in 2018 is entirely possible if Democrats hang tough.
But no. We witness the sad spectacle of some Democrats in Congress cutting deals with Trump, or voting for his thuggish nominees. That will only taint them further in the minds of swing voters as well as loyal Democrats.
In this comment space, we continue to see white working-class bashing by Times readers—usually with blanket accusations of racism. Millions of Trump supporters voted for Obama not once, but twice, especially in the rust-belt states. They can hardly be called racists.
Democrats need to think anew if they want to stop the demise of Democracy. They need to give Trump and his cohorts enough rope to hang themselves. And they need to reach out to the vast majority of white working-class voters, many of whom are already coming to realize they’ve been had.
That’s right! The question we should be asking is how can Democrats win those voters back in 2018? That challenge should be our No.1 priority. Taking back the House and Senate in 2018 is entirely possible if Democrats hang tough.
But no. We witness the sad spectacle of some Democrats in Congress cutting deals with Trump, or voting for his thuggish nominees. That will only taint them further in the minds of swing voters as well as loyal Democrats.
In this comment space, we continue to see white working-class bashing by Times readers—usually with blanket accusations of racism. Millions of Trump supporters voted for Obama not once, but twice, especially in the rust-belt states. They can hardly be called racists.
Democrats need to think anew if they want to stop the demise of Democracy. They need to give Trump and his cohorts enough rope to hang themselves. And they need to reach out to the vast majority of white working-class voters, many of whom are already coming to realize they’ve been had.
13
Helmberger Madison, WIS.
Increased foreign trade will increase returns to capital in the U.S., and lower real U.S. wages. The working class in the U.S. suffers; U.S. capitalists reap the rewards. What to do? Increase substantially the tax rates on high incomes and increase inheritance taxes. Reduce working hours, from 40 hour weeks to, say, 30 hour weeks, and increase the wage rates. Equally important, invest government expenditures in infrastructure, free education, health care for all, etc. Re incentives, does anyone really believe, to take an example, that Facebook would never have evolved if the inventors had not dreamed of becoming billionaires? Millionaires and fame would have done the trick very nicely. And suppose increased taxes on our CEOs leads to less investment and technological change, an unlikely outcome in my opinion, what good does increased national income do if the goodies mostly go to to the CEOs and investors while U.S. workers earn no more than the workers in China.
Increased foreign trade will increase returns to capital in the U.S., and lower real U.S. wages. The working class in the U.S. suffers; U.S. capitalists reap the rewards. What to do? Increase substantially the tax rates on high incomes and increase inheritance taxes. Reduce working hours, from 40 hour weeks to, say, 30 hour weeks, and increase the wage rates. Equally important, invest government expenditures in infrastructure, free education, health care for all, etc. Re incentives, does anyone really believe, to take an example, that Facebook would never have evolved if the inventors had not dreamed of becoming billionaires? Millionaires and fame would have done the trick very nicely. And suppose increased taxes on our CEOs leads to less investment and technological change, an unlikely outcome in my opinion, what good does increased national income do if the goodies mostly go to to the CEOs and investors while U.S. workers earn no more than the workers in China.
6
Economists have long tried to warn us against the dangers of backing out of trade deals such as NAFTA. They are correct in that it will lead to higher prices, lower demand, and therefore net loss of jobs. This may be true for the short term. However, offshoring an entire industry completely decimates the industry for local workforce.
Manufacturing is not just related to assembly line work. Its complexities can span from managing complex supply chains to MRP to building automation systems. When manufacturing is outsourced, high-skilled labor in engineering, finance, supply chain management, and technology is offshored as well. We need to bring back our industries to build a local workforce. We need to emulate a new model where instead of offshoring an entire industry, we build our own workforce for future generations. This is similar to the Germany model for manufacturing, where even with automation, there's still a robust manufacturing industry with strong worker protections.
Manufacturing is not just related to assembly line work. Its complexities can span from managing complex supply chains to MRP to building automation systems. When manufacturing is outsourced, high-skilled labor in engineering, finance, supply chain management, and technology is offshored as well. We need to bring back our industries to build a local workforce. We need to emulate a new model where instead of offshoring an entire industry, we build our own workforce for future generations. This is similar to the Germany model for manufacturing, where even with automation, there's still a robust manufacturing industry with strong worker protections.
4
Trump, of course, has no conception of the true consequences of anything he plans to do. Plus, he has no sense of measured caution in the face of his ignorance. He believes what he thinks. This is a classic recipe for disaster, and it should, probably in a very short time create so much alarm even among the most opportunistic Republicans planning to use Trump for their own ends, that consensus must lead to Trump's removal from office.
4
Plans? What plans? Trump reacts.
Haven't observed any planning and don't think I will.
Haven't observed any planning and don't think I will.
1
Dr Krugman, I think you premise that Trump will break his campaign promises is wrong - the only campaign promises he will break are the "throw away" red meat promises to his base. [E.g,, "lock her up," investigations into anything Clinton.] As for the rest, Trump is appears to be actually as delusional about the real world as he appears. I suspect that is because he is a "true believer."
Trump actually believes at his core that cutting taxes will cause a surge in tex receipts. He believes that the marketplace will actually solve the health care crisis that existed before Obamacare. Trump believes that tariffs bring manufacturing prosperity. He believes that throwing money at the military will make it strong while believing that throwing money at people will make them weak.
It is a worldview that never let's reality or empirical evidence penetrate.
I'm afraid that the media and Trump's own supporters are underestimating the radical changes and their impacts that Trump - together with the true believers in Congress - are about to unleash on Americans.
Trump actually believes at his core that cutting taxes will cause a surge in tex receipts. He believes that the marketplace will actually solve the health care crisis that existed before Obamacare. Trump believes that tariffs bring manufacturing prosperity. He believes that throwing money at the military will make it strong while believing that throwing money at people will make them weak.
It is a worldview that never let's reality or empirical evidence penetrate.
I'm afraid that the media and Trump's own supporters are underestimating the radical changes and their impacts that Trump - together with the true believers in Congress - are about to unleash on Americans.
2
It's ironic that Reagan is the Saint among the working class since he was the same guy that went to war with the air traffic controllers and all organized labor. Now we have Trump, the darling of the working class, the same guy that thinks the minimum wage is too high.
How is Germany, a wealthy country, so strong in manufacturing we're asked. It starts with a strong safety net in addition to a strong respect for working people and finally a strong belief in the common good.
Here, we have the opposite. The safety net is viewed as government waste, working people are an unnecessary evil and the common good? Remember, government is the problem and only dumb people pay taxes.
This is where we are, and adding tariffs while closing our borders will do nothing to address the underlying rot that threatens the middle class.
How is Germany, a wealthy country, so strong in manufacturing we're asked. It starts with a strong safety net in addition to a strong respect for working people and finally a strong belief in the common good.
Here, we have the opposite. The safety net is viewed as government waste, working people are an unnecessary evil and the common good? Remember, government is the problem and only dumb people pay taxes.
This is where we are, and adding tariffs while closing our borders will do nothing to address the underlying rot that threatens the middle class.
9
Mr. Krugman, your analysis is flawed. You have it wrong.
You say "manufacturing is a global enterprise" and imply that trade treaties allow the free flow of consumer goods around the world.
The correct statement would be that the manufacturing of consumer goods is the province of US multinational corporations. The trade pacts and the strong dollar are the economic tools that enable US multinational corporations to dominate manufacturing and drive down the price of labor on a global scale. The trade pacts enable US corporations to out source and offshore the manufacturing of consumer goods while maintaining their US markets. The strong dollar ensures that foreign corporations face a formidable entry barrier if they try to sell the products they manufacture in the US market. Intellectual property law, immigration law, labor law and tax law further increase the entry barrier faced by foreign corporations. US trade policy is not just trade treaties. It is the complex interaction of trade treaties and other laws. US trade policy provides a strong safety net for US multinational corporations.
Don't worry, the Republican President and his Republican Party intend to preserve the safety net for US corporations. The Republicans will rail against trade treaties while they shred Social Security and Medicare under Trump just as they shredded unions during the Eisenhower, Nixon and Reagan years. Neoliberal Democrats will join the party just as they did under Bill Clinton.
You say "manufacturing is a global enterprise" and imply that trade treaties allow the free flow of consumer goods around the world.
The correct statement would be that the manufacturing of consumer goods is the province of US multinational corporations. The trade pacts and the strong dollar are the economic tools that enable US multinational corporations to dominate manufacturing and drive down the price of labor on a global scale. The trade pacts enable US corporations to out source and offshore the manufacturing of consumer goods while maintaining their US markets. The strong dollar ensures that foreign corporations face a formidable entry barrier if they try to sell the products they manufacture in the US market. Intellectual property law, immigration law, labor law and tax law further increase the entry barrier faced by foreign corporations. US trade policy is not just trade treaties. It is the complex interaction of trade treaties and other laws. US trade policy provides a strong safety net for US multinational corporations.
Don't worry, the Republican President and his Republican Party intend to preserve the safety net for US corporations. The Republicans will rail against trade treaties while they shred Social Security and Medicare under Trump just as they shredded unions during the Eisenhower, Nixon and Reagan years. Neoliberal Democrats will join the party just as they did under Bill Clinton.
5
The prof tells us that federal deficits drove up interest rates. Well, gee that's not the way I remember it. I thought inflation or fear of inflation drove up rates. That's what Volker said, wasn't it? And the inflation didn't have much to do with deficits. It was caused by shortages, First there was a worldwide food shortage caused by the failure of the anchovy harvest, then there was a shortage of oil caused by the embargo.
More recently, deficits were high after 2008 and interest rates went as low as they could. Furthermore, with the deficit shrinking, we have rates going up. Doesn't Yellen talk about inflation, too?
Look, I can see the germ of a theoretical argument here. Prices are prepositional to the amount of money in the private sector, and federal deficit spending puts more money there, but prices are inversely proportional to the amount of stuff, goods and services, we produce. So if the deficit spending is done wisely, and the new money goes to the people who need it and will spend it (not speculate with it), then we will produce more and prices will not rise.
In fact, a growing economy NEEDS more money and wise deficit spending is the way to get money to the private sector. And note ALL 6 times we have ignored this fact and eliminated deficits for a while and significantly paid down the federal debt, we have fallen into a real gut wrenching depression.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
More recently, deficits were high after 2008 and interest rates went as low as they could. Furthermore, with the deficit shrinking, we have rates going up. Doesn't Yellen talk about inflation, too?
Look, I can see the germ of a theoretical argument here. Prices are prepositional to the amount of money in the private sector, and federal deficit spending puts more money there, but prices are inversely proportional to the amount of stuff, goods and services, we produce. So if the deficit spending is done wisely, and the new money goes to the people who need it and will spend it (not speculate with it), then we will produce more and prices will not rise.
In fact, a growing economy NEEDS more money and wise deficit spending is the way to get money to the private sector. And note ALL 6 times we have ignored this fact and eliminated deficits for a while and significantly paid down the federal debt, we have fallen into a real gut wrenching depression.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
3
- it might be time for economists tp explain to the American people that there are two things going on?
Nr.1
A pretty scary small minded tendency to nationalistic and racistic isolation.
Nr. 2
The rightful anger and backlash against Job Creators outsourcing American Jobs.
And the two things are connected for sure - but they have to be entangled - as building walls is no solution. So please finally work on sane and constructive solutions - how to get well paying manufacturing jobs back.
As other advanced democracies can do it - we should be able to do it - as there is no other way to create a sustainable economy.
Nr.1
A pretty scary small minded tendency to nationalistic and racistic isolation.
Nr. 2
The rightful anger and backlash against Job Creators outsourcing American Jobs.
And the two things are connected for sure - but they have to be entangled - as building walls is no solution. So please finally work on sane and constructive solutions - how to get well paying manufacturing jobs back.
As other advanced democracies can do it - we should be able to do it - as there is no other way to create a sustainable economy.
5
Prof. Krugman (or some other economist reading this), please explain in some detail how a 20% tariff on imports from Mexico would work, and what its likely implications would be. What are are greatest imports from Mexico, how could they be replaced if necessary, etc.? Then, let's say Ford imports a complex car part from Mexico that uses a part manufactured in China, how would the tariff be determined, would Ford absorb the higher cost, or would it likely pass it on to consumers, how much would it add to a car's cost, would car sales go down, would consumers have less money to spend on something else? Would Mexico add tariffs to things we export to them? Which would be most likely. What other questions should we ask about such a policy change?
2
I have to take exception to the statement that interest rates rose during the Reagan administration. During the first 18 months, yes. But in the summer of 1982 the trend reversed, starting the bull market that helped define the "go-go eighties."
3
. . . an expansion which crashed in 1987. The cycles of expansion and contraction on Wall Street are elegantly described by the 'Uncertainty hypothesis' of Hyman Minsky: investment assets do not obey conventional market rules of supply and demand; the rules are reversed -- demand for assets rise as their cost rises. Investors willingly pay more in hope of catching a profit on the way up, leading to overvaluation and specious financing schemes. To wit, 2008.
1
The investment in snowballing ignorance pays dividends. Divide America and U.S. influence and prosperity ends. Republicans do not "believe" in science, natural or social. Trump believes in fear and his own unfounded greatness. How can their supporters be any better informed? We are in the grasp of a fearful ignorant minority controlled by a cynical cabal of kleptocrats and oligarchs.
The Women's March was just the beginning. The Republicans have no idea of the forces they have unleashed.
The Women's March was just the beginning. The Republicans have no idea of the forces they have unleashed.
15
President Trump has been eager to demonstrate his crisis-management skills, but he found himself taking office when the country faced no crisis. Certainly, no domestic crisis exists.
No problem. Mr. Trump and his inner circle are busily creating crises which exist only in their own minds. Hence, the bleak Inauguration Address about tombstones and carnage.
On the economic front, we are being sold a bill of goods about the need for old-fashioned protectionism. Even the very right-wing Republicans in Congress are much too young to remember when trade wars were in vogue.
The name of Ronald Reagan is bandied about, even though for all of his faults, Reagan saw a shining city on a hill, not tombstones. Trump’s nominees talk about trickle-down help for working-class Americans from more tax cuts to the wealthy. That old standby – supply-side economics – is invoked to explain the magic. The more accurate term of George H.W. Bush – voodoo economics – is avoided.
As Yogi Berra said, “It’s deja vu all over again.” Except, it isn’t.
The Trump nominee for Director of Management and Budget, Mick Mulvaney, is much more radical than Reagan’s David Stockman. The white working-class Trump voters are being sacrificed much more than the Reagan Democrats ever were – even though the disparity in wealth between the top 1% and the bottom half in America is far larger than in the 1980s.
The only question Americans can have is whether the Trump White House is more stupid than it is dishonest.
No problem. Mr. Trump and his inner circle are busily creating crises which exist only in their own minds. Hence, the bleak Inauguration Address about tombstones and carnage.
On the economic front, we are being sold a bill of goods about the need for old-fashioned protectionism. Even the very right-wing Republicans in Congress are much too young to remember when trade wars were in vogue.
The name of Ronald Reagan is bandied about, even though for all of his faults, Reagan saw a shining city on a hill, not tombstones. Trump’s nominees talk about trickle-down help for working-class Americans from more tax cuts to the wealthy. That old standby – supply-side economics – is invoked to explain the magic. The more accurate term of George H.W. Bush – voodoo economics – is avoided.
As Yogi Berra said, “It’s deja vu all over again.” Except, it isn’t.
The Trump nominee for Director of Management and Budget, Mick Mulvaney, is much more radical than Reagan’s David Stockman. The white working-class Trump voters are being sacrificed much more than the Reagan Democrats ever were – even though the disparity in wealth between the top 1% and the bottom half in America is far larger than in the 1980s.
The only question Americans can have is whether the Trump White House is more stupid than it is dishonest.
4
The President is the leader of a cult. Virtually nothing anyone can say will sway these "true believers" from accepting the alternative facts presented by the Trump-Republican propaganda machine. Watch Fox and you'll see the "spin machine" in action. Until a sufficient number of the followers are harmed by the policies rapidly being instituted, nothing will change. The only other possibility to save America is if sufficient numbers of rational people make the Republicans pay a big price at the polls for aiding and abetting Trumps policies.
28
Foreign capital inflows into the United States under Team Trump will not be investment in production of anything, but rather parking ill-gotten gains into overpriced luxury real estate. It sure worked for Putin and his oligarchs in the New York real estate market exemplified by Trump-labelled buildings.
3
40% and rising is the inexorable number that neither Trump nor his Rust Belt retinue grasp.
About 40% of the cost of a modern automobile is attributable to electronic systems, electrical devices, and software/firmware. Nearly all of the individual electronic components and many of the circuit card assemblies and systems are produced abroad. Software production is increasingly internationalized. Lean and robotics continue to slash touch labor requirements.
Unless Mr. Trump will subsidize resumed production of Chevy Cavaliers, Chrysler LeBarons, or Ford Torinos, don't look for a resurgence of traditional automotive assembly jobs/
About 40% of the cost of a modern automobile is attributable to electronic systems, electrical devices, and software/firmware. Nearly all of the individual electronic components and many of the circuit card assemblies and systems are produced abroad. Software production is increasingly internationalized. Lean and robotics continue to slash touch labor requirements.
Unless Mr. Trump will subsidize resumed production of Chevy Cavaliers, Chrysler LeBarons, or Ford Torinos, don't look for a resurgence of traditional automotive assembly jobs/
5
We are perfectly capable of making electronic circuit boards in the US. Indeed, my husband is an engineer at a thriving US electronics circuit board maker -- yes here in the US! -- and they out compete Chinese production on both cost and technology by smart design and production.
There is absolutely no reason we cannot make circuit boards and electronics HERE IN THE USA.
BTW: some of those were very good cars, at affordable prices, compared to the over priced "high tech" cars today that are sold based not on their reliability or good gas mileage, but because they have "bluetooth technology" or encourage folks to use phones, email and texting WHILE THEY DRIVE making for accidents and road rage.
There is absolutely no reason we cannot make circuit boards and electronics HERE IN THE USA.
BTW: some of those were very good cars, at affordable prices, compared to the over priced "high tech" cars today that are sold based not on their reliability or good gas mileage, but because they have "bluetooth technology" or encourage folks to use phones, email and texting WHILE THEY DRIVE making for accidents and road rage.
Reagan didn't cut taxes very much at all. The Democrats helped write the tax bill because they had majorities in both the House and the Senate. They actually did reduce deductions on the rich and cap gains and dividends were taxed at the same rate as income. It wasn't until Clinton and Bush 2 where cap gains and dividend taxes were significantly cut benefiting passive income and the wealthy.
There's another huge difference between the 80's and now. Between India and China there are well over half a billion middle class consumers. There are more I-phones purchased in China than the USA. Boeing Jets are sitting on runways all over Asia in very large numbers. The Chinese drink California wines and US foods, and watch our movies.
Unlike the 80's there is an aging wealthy population in Asia that can no longer do factor work without robotics and software and they aren't riding bikes to work and barely feeding themselves rice diets anymore.
The reason we need free trade is there are more customers outside of the US then inside the US. Factories no longer depend on labor to be productive. We are looking in the rear view mirror and solving yesterdays problems. It's a disaster waiting to happen to throw red meat at a small part of yesterdays US work force at the expensive of a very large and diverse US economy.
There's another huge difference between the 80's and now. Between India and China there are well over half a billion middle class consumers. There are more I-phones purchased in China than the USA. Boeing Jets are sitting on runways all over Asia in very large numbers. The Chinese drink California wines and US foods, and watch our movies.
Unlike the 80's there is an aging wealthy population in Asia that can no longer do factor work without robotics and software and they aren't riding bikes to work and barely feeding themselves rice diets anymore.
The reason we need free trade is there are more customers outside of the US then inside the US. Factories no longer depend on labor to be productive. We are looking in the rear view mirror and solving yesterdays problems. It's a disaster waiting to happen to throw red meat at a small part of yesterdays US work force at the expensive of a very large and diverse US economy.
14
But the problem is not just trump or working class white voters relatively uninformed on trade. This is being pushed through by the backbone of the gop.
pence has been very involved in pro-business policy in Indiana, but the state's industry is unhealthy as is evidenced by the ratio of temp filled positions to true hires. Even the new car plants hiring are temp.
I'm sorry but tar the correct culprits here. Yes, trump but more importantly, its gop leadership across the board.
pence has been very involved in pro-business policy in Indiana, but the state's industry is unhealthy as is evidenced by the ratio of temp filled positions to true hires. Even the new car plants hiring are temp.
I'm sorry but tar the correct culprits here. Yes, trump but more importantly, its gop leadership across the board.
4
I think we are passed making rational arguments to Trump, he is clearly an unstable person unwilling to even listen to people around him never mind the press. American institutions have respectfully given the President a chance but his first few days have shown that in fact he is mentally not fir for office. Let's start talking about how an unfit president gets removed from office and gets the psychological help he obviously requires. America's survival is at risk and there must be procedures that protect America from a mentally unfit President.
35
My current car is one of the last products of a Toyota-GM cooperative plant that I bought as GM went bankrupt. It's doing fine, but there's a chance that auto manufacturing and sales will be thrown into chaos, with the possibility of less choice and higher prices. So it may be time to check out imports, maybe especially fuel-efficient ones that don't seem to be selling.
6
It was Obama's "bailout" in 2009 that caused the auto industry to shutter half their dealerships, and get rid of less profitable brands (like Oldsmobile) and lay off thousands of workers. And have you bought a car recently? Prices are HIGHER THAN EVER, especially recent model used cars ... thanks to Obama's "cash for clunkers", millions of good serviceable and inexpensive used cars were needlessly DESTROYED and that made the prices of ALL used cars go up dramatically.
Imagine the surprise of all those MAGA voters when their Walmart order goes from $22.00 to $45.00 due to tariffs and increased cost of production. Sure it'll be "Made In America" (mostly by machines, FYI) but what hasn't been made here will cost a whole lot more. And they won't be getting all those jobs back from the machines that now have them.
12
What bothers me most about this administration is that they are trying to impose ideological solutions to an existing economic order that so far has kept the prices of goods and services low and favored the consumer.
The way I read all this America First nonsense is that Mr. Trump is only two willing to throw the baby out with the bathwater. Another words up working agreements in order to claim a win for himself at the expense of his supporters.
The problem with Trump's grandiose vision is that he really doesn't know the nuts and bolts of economics. Moreover he doesn't seem to accept that every action even minor ones have consequences, often uunintended.
Tariffs have never done anything other than make goods more expensive. The US is a consumption based economy. Higher prices for goods and services are going to pack a punch for Trump supporters, indeed all of us. They may also increase interest rates and lead to a recession.
If tariffs and trade wars are Mr. Trump's first focus, I want to see the effect on his problems to create jobs jobs jobs.
The way I read all this America First nonsense is that Mr. Trump is only two willing to throw the baby out with the bathwater. Another words up working agreements in order to claim a win for himself at the expense of his supporters.
The problem with Trump's grandiose vision is that he really doesn't know the nuts and bolts of economics. Moreover he doesn't seem to accept that every action even minor ones have consequences, often uunintended.
Tariffs have never done anything other than make goods more expensive. The US is a consumption based economy. Higher prices for goods and services are going to pack a punch for Trump supporters, indeed all of us. They may also increase interest rates and lead to a recession.
If tariffs and trade wars are Mr. Trump's first focus, I want to see the effect on his problems to create jobs jobs jobs.
10
Thank you Mr. Krugman, your voice of clarity, reason and knowledge helps to insulate myself from the dystopian parallel reality Trump and his followers are trying to create.
8
While high tariffs are not an answer, we need to address the problem of displaced workers.
Telling them " expletive" your high paying jobs will not return and you can only hope for a much lower paying job is not a solution.
They will vote for demagogues like TRump and even worse demagogues..
Telling them " expletive" your high paying jobs will not return and you can only hope for a much lower paying job is not a solution.
They will vote for demagogues like TRump and even worse demagogues..
6
How about a job guarantee program like the one proposed by good old Tom Paine in 1797.. The federal gov would become the employer of last resort. It would guarantee a decent job or paid training for such a job to everyone able to work.
There are plenty of things that need to be done--fixing roads & bridges, education, research etc. BTW there are plenty of support jobs in education and research that do not require a degree. As with unemployment benefits today, you could require each worker to show that he had applied for a comparable private sector job periodically.
How would we pay for it?
A) It would to a certain extent pay for itself.
1. When people are working, producing, & spending, they pay more taxes than when they are out of work. The money they spend provides jobs for others who also spend & pay taxes.
2. We could reduce much of what we currently spend on welfare.
3. It would raise private sector wages and thus taxes.
B) We could raise income tax rates on the Rich as we did during the Great Prosperity of 1946 - 1973. This would not only raise revenue, it would reduce inequality and financial speculation, both of which are bad for the economy.
C) We could sell Treasury bonds both to the public locking in low interest and to the FED which returns the interest.Since we would be producing more, there would be little inflation.
See http://www.levyinstitute.org/topics/job-guarantee
There are plenty of things that need to be done--fixing roads & bridges, education, research etc. BTW there are plenty of support jobs in education and research that do not require a degree. As with unemployment benefits today, you could require each worker to show that he had applied for a comparable private sector job periodically.
How would we pay for it?
A) It would to a certain extent pay for itself.
1. When people are working, producing, & spending, they pay more taxes than when they are out of work. The money they spend provides jobs for others who also spend & pay taxes.
2. We could reduce much of what we currently spend on welfare.
3. It would raise private sector wages and thus taxes.
B) We could raise income tax rates on the Rich as we did during the Great Prosperity of 1946 - 1973. This would not only raise revenue, it would reduce inequality and financial speculation, both of which are bad for the economy.
C) We could sell Treasury bonds both to the public locking in low interest and to the FED which returns the interest.Since we would be producing more, there would be little inflation.
See http://www.levyinstitute.org/topics/job-guarantee
3
Wait, I thought Pres, Carter was given credit for appointing Paul Volcker, as fed chair, kept on by Reagan, who raised interest rates and thus broke the back of inflation. But Krugman doesn't paint it that way here. It seems intellectually dishonest to cherry pick that facts like that. It makes me read Krugman with more skepticism. Is he just a partisan hack not to be trusted?????
5
You assume, impose an interpretation, then attack, a classic propagandist ploy. It is you who we read with skepticism.
2
No, he didn't mention Iran Contra either. There was enough going on back then to try and cover every facet of any administration. One thing is certain, the assault on workers and the decline of the middle class started in earnest during the Reagan administration.
2
I agree with a lot of what you say, but if you look at what contemporaries of Volker say, it appears that the inflation was caused by the oil embargo and only went down when the embargo was lifted.
The anger is directed at the wrong people. The guys working in Mexican factories did not choose to move the work to Mexico. It was decided by management to benefit the share holders.
1109
... and many of those in management are probably reliably Republican voters.
3
Indeed. Jobs were not stolen by Mexico or China. As you indicate, the workers in those countries were GIVEN those jobs by the greedlings in America's boardrooms and on Wall Street. For nearly 30 years, we have been locked into the Second Gilded Age where shareholder value "Trumps" American job and the once-great Middle Class. We can also thank the libertarian economist, Alan Greenspan, for his 30-year trust in the trickle-down, free market policies that left The Great Recession for President Obama to clean up.
3
Thank Dr. Krugman, your smart comments help pedestrians like to understand and prepare for this crazy moment.
1
Mr. Trump is a nouveau riche narcissist who only thinks in terms of making himself look great and richer.
2
It's only beginning. The GOPers are incapable of governing on their own
much less with the Orange Clown in charge.
Hold on to your wallet America!
much less with the Orange Clown in charge.
Hold on to your wallet America!
6
Regulating trade is widely accepted as "protectionism" - whether you see it as good or bad. What we need is wider acceptance of the fact that regulation throughout the rest of the economy is also "protectionism" a good thing. This allows the public to see that deregulation exposes the public to harm and is a bad thing.
lff
lff
4
"the new regime’s policies will probably lead to a faster, not slower, decline in American manufacturing."
And when the employment numbers comes out to prove you right, Trump will indicate the statistics are rigged and it is a conspiracy to make him look bad. And blue collar people whose lot in life will continue to decline will cheer Trump lies anyway. These people have bought a Trump lottery ticket and have already made plans as to how they will spend the extra winning money. Trump's words have kindled an unrealistic hope that a shady successful businessman has the formula to improve their lives. If people in rural areas cling to their bibles and guns they have a new security blanket to comfort them; Trump.
And when the employment numbers comes out to prove you right, Trump will indicate the statistics are rigged and it is a conspiracy to make him look bad. And blue collar people whose lot in life will continue to decline will cheer Trump lies anyway. These people have bought a Trump lottery ticket and have already made plans as to how they will spend the extra winning money. Trump's words have kindled an unrealistic hope that a shady successful businessman has the formula to improve their lives. If people in rural areas cling to their bibles and guns they have a new security blanket to comfort them; Trump.
671
Actually, I fully expect him to order the halting of publishing the labor statistics, especially if they don't conform to his beliefs.
(I am already waiting for him to claim responsibility for the recent drought-busting storms in California)
(I am already waiting for him to claim responsibility for the recent drought-busting storms in California)
2
Babel new Jersey: Hope is a good breakfast but a poor supper.
Latest evidence of your point: I heard someone say yesterday that they believe he'll convince Mexico to pay for Great Wall 2 ... because, you know, art of the deal.
1
The monetary loss due to Trump's policies will, unfortunately, merely be the most visible, tip of the iceberg. In almost every sphere of influence, Trump's disregard for established policy and power structures will leave us diminished. The recent spat with Mexico is just the begining.
437
From any angle, Trump is a flawed study. The blemishes continually show up in his ideas and acts: he perceives the world (small and large) as filled with conflict,danger and tumult, he will lie to take credit, he has one level logic. He can not treat groups as individuals. (He is racist.) He can not plan or study. He cannot peek ahead to see consequences. He moves in fits and starts. (He is a boring, dangerous man.)
Count the fights: the CIA, John Lewis, the Park Service, TPP, the press, the President of Mexico. Count the PR campaigns: every executive order, pronouncements of great speeches, promises of torture. Count the progress: zero. No matter how entertaining, the country can't be run one pipeline or tariff at a time. (Canceling the TPP takes away workers protections and puts 12 US allies on both sides of the Pacific in the hands of China in a strategic realignment. Bad!)
In old Westerns, the heroes would “head 'em off at the pass.” Trump is simply “trading the devil for the witch.” He confuses great with hate and blame. He has no forward vision in a world surrounded by tomorrow. He is the child of excess, its incarnate form, the embodiment of a world view whose capital wealth is so great he does not see the human cost of its waste.
Count the fights: the CIA, John Lewis, the Park Service, TPP, the press, the President of Mexico. Count the PR campaigns: every executive order, pronouncements of great speeches, promises of torture. Count the progress: zero. No matter how entertaining, the country can't be run one pipeline or tariff at a time. (Canceling the TPP takes away workers protections and puts 12 US allies on both sides of the Pacific in the hands of China in a strategic realignment. Bad!)
In old Westerns, the heroes would “head 'em off at the pass.” Trump is simply “trading the devil for the witch.” He confuses great with hate and blame. He has no forward vision in a world surrounded by tomorrow. He is the child of excess, its incarnate form, the embodiment of a world view whose capital wealth is so great he does not see the human cost of its waste.
47
A shout-out to all the women of the world who came together to build a one-day, giant community that celebrated freedom and love across the globe!
8
NAFTA and other trade deals no doubt need to be tweaked, but these current trade deals have brought billions of dollars into this country which has only been shared by the top 1%. Income inequality and distribution of wealth is what has hurt the American worker. Along with automation! Many companies leave the United States not because they can't afford to pay workers here, they leave for cheap labor to boost their stock prices. We need to make education and increase wages a top priority in this Country. We also need to have a discussion on the increased unemployment that automation is going to bring to our country in the very near future.
524
It's not that they can't pay workers a higher wage-they don't want to pay workers a higher wage. Higher labor costs would reduce the multi-million dollar compensation package the CEO and other C suite employees get; while telling the workers they have to pay those high salaries to those employees "in order to be competitive."
4
Did you guys happen to watch the Carrier video -- caught on a smartphone -- when management announced they were CLOSING the Indiana factory to move the jobs and equipment to Monterrey, Mexico?
The speaker told the workers, very clearly that "it had nothing to do with you....you did a fantastic job, work hard and we are profitable, but we can make MORE MONEY by taking the factory to Mexico". He didn't evens sugarcoat it or bother to lie. It's THAT obvious.
Of course you can make more money if you pay workers $4 an hour vs. $19 an hour -- Carrier was ALREADY PROFITABLE. But this change means huge bonuses to upper management and CEOs, for "making more profits".
It also means no strikes...no threats of unions...no need to pay for health insurance...no need for safety regulations. SWEET!
So basically, no matter how hard or efficiently Americans work...it is NEVER GONNA BE ENOUGH. For the Democrats, it's just fine to leave 10% of the workforce behind, and another 10% working lousy part time McCrap McJobs because that's all they can find. As long as the wealthy elite in the big blue cities are thriving, and the stock market is 20,000...all is well. All is well. All is well. (So saith Krugman....)
The speaker told the workers, very clearly that "it had nothing to do with you....you did a fantastic job, work hard and we are profitable, but we can make MORE MONEY by taking the factory to Mexico". He didn't evens sugarcoat it or bother to lie. It's THAT obvious.
Of course you can make more money if you pay workers $4 an hour vs. $19 an hour -- Carrier was ALREADY PROFITABLE. But this change means huge bonuses to upper management and CEOs, for "making more profits".
It also means no strikes...no threats of unions...no need to pay for health insurance...no need for safety regulations. SWEET!
So basically, no matter how hard or efficiently Americans work...it is NEVER GONNA BE ENOUGH. For the Democrats, it's just fine to leave 10% of the workforce behind, and another 10% working lousy part time McCrap McJobs because that's all they can find. As long as the wealthy elite in the big blue cities are thriving, and the stock market is 20,000...all is well. All is well. All is well. (So saith Krugman....)
2
BUT, low cost manufacture and tech-heavy assembly HAVE brought a reduction is the consumer cost of manufactured goods when compared to the cost without using such techniques.
Is the country ready for everything at Wal Mart to cost more????
Is the country ready for everything at Wal Mart to cost more????
More nonsense from Krugman, like this line: "And there’s a further factor to consider: The world economy has gotten a lot more complex over the past three decades." This is then followed by some blather about how its not as simple as Made in America anymore.
Yes, the economy is complex. But, complex doesn’t mean you have to accede to it or you can’t direct it. And, it’s not just the economy. It’s what the people, you know, the ones who the economy is here to serve, need that matters.
Over the past thirty years, globalization has worked, but not for everyone. Obama did little to address its failings. Hillary Clinton was just going to maintain the status quo.
What Krugman is blind to, amazingly, is the creative destruction that is needed in atrophied systems. America, unlike most of the rest of the world, is open to such change as has been seen time and again. Jackson, Lincoln, TR, FDR, Reagan - all instances where the American people have taken a leap of faith by electing leaders to re-direct or right the country. In the instance of Reagan, he built on the half starts of Carter's deregulation, but truly unleashed them by breaking the air traffic controllers strike. This was the game changer.
The people have chosen, Donald J Trump, even with all his alleged craziness. So, it is time to stop the whining and start accepting that the world has changed. The excitement is over what and how DJT is going to do. He may just be the antidote to what ails this country.
Yes, the economy is complex. But, complex doesn’t mean you have to accede to it or you can’t direct it. And, it’s not just the economy. It’s what the people, you know, the ones who the economy is here to serve, need that matters.
Over the past thirty years, globalization has worked, but not for everyone. Obama did little to address its failings. Hillary Clinton was just going to maintain the status quo.
What Krugman is blind to, amazingly, is the creative destruction that is needed in atrophied systems. America, unlike most of the rest of the world, is open to such change as has been seen time and again. Jackson, Lincoln, TR, FDR, Reagan - all instances where the American people have taken a leap of faith by electing leaders to re-direct or right the country. In the instance of Reagan, he built on the half starts of Carter's deregulation, but truly unleashed them by breaking the air traffic controllers strike. This was the game changer.
The people have chosen, Donald J Trump, even with all his alleged craziness. So, it is time to stop the whining and start accepting that the world has changed. The excitement is over what and how DJT is going to do. He may just be the antidote to what ails this country.
7
Yeah, Reagan was wonderful.
2
"The people have chosen, Donald J Trump, even with all his alleged craziness."
He lost the vote of the people by 3 million votes. The American people made it clear, they don't like craziness.
He lost the vote of the people by 3 million votes. The American people made it clear, they don't like craziness.
5
Thanks for all the Rush/FOX cliches. You parroted very well.
2
This Administration in general, and Mr. Trump in particular, believe that there are very simple solutions to complex problems, when there are not.
Believe that Mexico are stealing jobs? Simple, just slap a tariff on Mexican imports -- our 2nd largest trading partner, without thinking the next step -- Mexico will place a tariff on American exports, which all will result in job loses in the U.S. and higher American prices.
As Dr, Krugman likes to say, 'your spending is my income and your spending is my income. When we both decrease spending both of our incomes falls.'
But, Mr. Trump doesn't even get the causes correctly. Declining manufacturing is largely due to automation but it's easier to blame brown and yellow people than it is to blame computer code.
The result is unfortunately no relief for struggling workers in the rust belt or coal mines.
Believe that Mexico are stealing jobs? Simple, just slap a tariff on Mexican imports -- our 2nd largest trading partner, without thinking the next step -- Mexico will place a tariff on American exports, which all will result in job loses in the U.S. and higher American prices.
As Dr, Krugman likes to say, 'your spending is my income and your spending is my income. When we both decrease spending both of our incomes falls.'
But, Mr. Trump doesn't even get the causes correctly. Declining manufacturing is largely due to automation but it's easier to blame brown and yellow people than it is to blame computer code.
The result is unfortunately no relief for struggling workers in the rust belt or coal mines.
16
Let me correct this (the price for posting too early in the AM). [corrections in caps]
========
This Administration in general, and Mr. Trump in particular, believe that there are very simple solutions to complex problems, when there are not.
Believe that Mexico IS stealing jobs? Simple, just slap a tariff on Mexican imports -- our 2nd largest trading partner, without thinking the next step -- Mexico will place a tariff on American exports, which all will result in job loses in the U.S. and higher American prices.
As Dr, Krugman likes to say, 'your spending is my income and MY spending is YOUR income. When we both decrease spending both of our incomes falls.'
But, Mr. Trump doesn't even get the causes correctly. Declining manufacturing is largely due to automation but it's easier to blame brown and yellow people than it is to blame computer code. The result is unfortunately no relief for struggling workers in the rust belt or coal mines.
========
This Administration in general, and Mr. Trump in particular, believe that there are very simple solutions to complex problems, when there are not.
Believe that Mexico IS stealing jobs? Simple, just slap a tariff on Mexican imports -- our 2nd largest trading partner, without thinking the next step -- Mexico will place a tariff on American exports, which all will result in job loses in the U.S. and higher American prices.
As Dr, Krugman likes to say, 'your spending is my income and MY spending is YOUR income. When we both decrease spending both of our incomes falls.'
But, Mr. Trump doesn't even get the causes correctly. Declining manufacturing is largely due to automation but it's easier to blame brown and yellow people than it is to blame computer code. The result is unfortunately no relief for struggling workers in the rust belt or coal mines.
3
I find it fascinating that Paul Krugman refers to "the new regime's policies." The phrase "new regime" has an historical ring to it that is impossible to ignore. With Steve Bannon calling the press the "opposition party," and telling this "opposition" to shut up I think we see the more public avowals of a protofascist stance in American politics beginning in the White House. No one in the WH, on the presidential staff, in Congress, on the far right media like Hannity et al., has come forward to object to Bannon's words or not-so-hidden intentions.
It will take time but I believe that a nationalist-protofascist movement is coalescing from the WH with Bannon leading like-minded conservatives, Tea Partyers, right-wingers, Storm Fronters at large, and fellow travelers in the Republican Congress - and even the rust-belt Trump voting populace - into a movement under Bannon's leadership. Come 2020, whether or not Trump has had a successful presidency, however that comes to be defined these days, I believe that Bannon will seek to run for the presidency if he can't find a willing stooge he can stage-manage to do it. Mike Pence will ultimately ally himself with Bannon and drop his allegiance to Trump as having served the purpose - to organize directly from the WH West Wing. Pence might run.
Bannon and his supporters are undoubtedly watching the far right nationalists (the phony name is populist) in Europe for clues to how strong a movement can be built here. It can happen here.
It will take time but I believe that a nationalist-protofascist movement is coalescing from the WH with Bannon leading like-minded conservatives, Tea Partyers, right-wingers, Storm Fronters at large, and fellow travelers in the Republican Congress - and even the rust-belt Trump voting populace - into a movement under Bannon's leadership. Come 2020, whether or not Trump has had a successful presidency, however that comes to be defined these days, I believe that Bannon will seek to run for the presidency if he can't find a willing stooge he can stage-manage to do it. Mike Pence will ultimately ally himself with Bannon and drop his allegiance to Trump as having served the purpose - to organize directly from the WH West Wing. Pence might run.
Bannon and his supporters are undoubtedly watching the far right nationalists (the phony name is populist) in Europe for clues to how strong a movement can be built here. It can happen here.
12
Thursday morning impose a 20 percent import tax. Thursday afternoon deny it. Friday morning order the military to torture captives. Friday afternoon deny it. Saturday morning announce Seal Team 6 will be sent to Chicago. Saturday afternoon deny it....The roller coaster rolls on.
We have mentally ill person in the White House. Sad. He deserves our pity, not ridicule.
We need to face the fact that protest marches, crowd sizes, letter writing, phone calls will not catch the 30-second attention span of Unpresidential Trump, nor can they change the 'mind' of this mentally ill person. We need to target the Republicans who are GOPeeing on (the) US.
The Republicans are ALL Tea Party radicals. (Don't tell me there are ANY moderate, old-school conservative Republicans left, not even Sen. Collins.) Shame on them. They are RADICAL. They do not listen to reason. They are ideologists. They are True Believers in serving the wealthy, not We The People.
We The People need to organize a shutdown of Washington. Millions need to drive to DC, park in the streets, block the Metro, bus terminals, train station, access to the airports, march to the Capital and DEMAND the Republicans to come out listen to our demand: impeach Trump and Pence. Short of that, we will be back.
We have mentally ill person in the White House. Sad. He deserves our pity, not ridicule.
We need to face the fact that protest marches, crowd sizes, letter writing, phone calls will not catch the 30-second attention span of Unpresidential Trump, nor can they change the 'mind' of this mentally ill person. We need to target the Republicans who are GOPeeing on (the) US.
The Republicans are ALL Tea Party radicals. (Don't tell me there are ANY moderate, old-school conservative Republicans left, not even Sen. Collins.) Shame on them. They are RADICAL. They do not listen to reason. They are ideologists. They are True Believers in serving the wealthy, not We The People.
We The People need to organize a shutdown of Washington. Millions need to drive to DC, park in the streets, block the Metro, bus terminals, train station, access to the airports, march to the Capital and DEMAND the Republicans to come out listen to our demand: impeach Trump and Pence. Short of that, we will be back.
213
"We have a mentally ill person in the White House."
After this first week, I would have to agree. But c'mon. Whoever is in the White House can't effect the country that much, right? In other countries that have a strong, arrogant, disturbed leaders such as Venezuela and North Korea, nothing bad happened, right?
After this first week, I would have to agree. But c'mon. Whoever is in the White House can't effect the country that much, right? In other countries that have a strong, arrogant, disturbed leaders such as Venezuela and North Korea, nothing bad happened, right?
1
JABarry
Agree completely with your assessment of Trump. I imagine the GOP leadership is fully aware of Trump's "condition" and all set to use him to finally accomplish their pet objectives. They will then blame Obama and the Democrats for whatever suffering their policies inflict on their base. Shutting down Washington seems a great idea.
Agree completely with your assessment of Trump. I imagine the GOP leadership is fully aware of Trump's "condition" and all set to use him to finally accomplish their pet objectives. They will then blame Obama and the Democrats for whatever suffering their policies inflict on their base. Shutting down Washington seems a great idea.
2
I think crowd size WILL affect Trump we need to surround him with protests. Shutting down traffic wherever he goes so he can look at the crowds from his helicopter. He has energized the left of center.
2
The downside of Trump's declarations about returning jobs to America, exiting from trade agreements and increased income tariffs is that the American consumer will be facing higher prices without the benefit of higher incomes. The approvals for these actions will not come from the consumer, but from a Congress whose members do not have to face the economic insecurity of the majority of us....
Salary of retired US Presidents $180,000 FOR LIFE
Salary of House/Senate members $174,000 FOR LIFE
Salary of Speaker of the House $223,500 FOR LIFE
Salary of Majority/Minority Leaders $193,400 FOR LIFE
Compare that to:
Average Salary of a teacher $40,065
Average Salary of a deployed Soldier $38,000
We need to start teaching more economic, social development, and civics in our schools so that maybe we will begin to understand the impact of the actions of our elected officials and make better choices. Oh, yeah, and maybe we should be registered to vote at birth and, in our capitalist nation, be given some kind of tax break or rebate if we exercise that right.
Salary of retired US Presidents $180,000 FOR LIFE
Salary of House/Senate members $174,000 FOR LIFE
Salary of Speaker of the House $223,500 FOR LIFE
Salary of Majority/Minority Leaders $193,400 FOR LIFE
Compare that to:
Average Salary of a teacher $40,065
Average Salary of a deployed Soldier $38,000
We need to start teaching more economic, social development, and civics in our schools so that maybe we will begin to understand the impact of the actions of our elected officials and make better choices. Oh, yeah, and maybe we should be registered to vote at birth and, in our capitalist nation, be given some kind of tax break or rebate if we exercise that right.
74
Is that all they make? My one sibling who is CFO of a manufacturing corporation began making 7 digits a year once they sourced their production in Guangdong Province. He contributes $50K a year to his favorite senators, who drive up in less than 2 hours from DC to "tour the plant"...many more wealthy people who are not touching the political or governmental sectors.
4
More alternate facts. Congresspersons do not get paid FOR LIFE.
http://www.politifact.com/ohio/statements/2013/jan/11/chain-email/can-me...
http://www.factcheck.org/2015/01/congressional-pensions-update/
http://www.politifact.com/ohio/statements/2013/jan/11/chain-email/can-me...
http://www.factcheck.org/2015/01/congressional-pensions-update/
1
Krugman is wrong about everything.
7
Very astute reasoning, who needs facts or evidence when you know, you just know, who is right and who is wrong...
20
Well structured argument.
1
as Paul Feyerabend said: “Prayer may not be very efficient when compared to celestial mechanics, but it surely holds its own vis-à-vis some parts of economics.”
1
The US made itself hostile to manufacturing with a 50 states rat's nest of unequally protective laws and a measurement system used nowhere else in the world. The crackup began under Reagan, another grandiose airhead pumped up by sycophancy.
35
The world and world trade is complex our dear leader does not handle complexity well. Nor do his supporters, show me a person who demands simple answers to complex problems and you have probably found a Trump voter.
37
Dear Paul,
You are almost as bad as Trump in repeating the lie that budget deficits drive up interest rates. As a self-professed "Japan worrier", you know that's not true of countries which have their own currency and therefore control their own interest rates. Japan has maintained zero rates despite having debt/GDP of over 200% - and you know it.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/interest-rate
As for Reagan, wrong again. Yes, interest rates were high, but they declined over his tenure, even as debt and deficit increased.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate
Have a nice day.
You are almost as bad as Trump in repeating the lie that budget deficits drive up interest rates. As a self-professed "Japan worrier", you know that's not true of countries which have their own currency and therefore control their own interest rates. Japan has maintained zero rates despite having debt/GDP of over 200% - and you know it.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/interest-rate
As for Reagan, wrong again. Yes, interest rates were high, but they declined over his tenure, even as debt and deficit increased.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate
Have a nice day.
5
Japan's debt to GDP ratio is what you say, maybe worse. The reason Japan can run a deficit without affecting currency value is because the people save so much that the debt is held by its own people, paid for in their own currency. US saves less, therefore more has to be sold abroad, forcing foreigners to demand dollars. In the recession since investment demand is so low, the the savings relative to demand for loanable funds is low, that's why Krugman was for a deficit under Obama, and effectively isn't now the recession is over.
4
I didn't see the second part of your post; interest rates fell due to Fed policy. The monerterist where in charge with Volker, who slowed the increase money to 3-8%. As inflation rate fell the nominal or reported interest rates fell with it. The real rate, reported minus inflation, increased. Krugman is right and the way you know is look at Yen value of dollar at that time. I was an Econ grad student at that time and had to write papers on effects of deficit on US currency and Japan where different. Real name: interest rate arbitrage.
And thank you Both
And thank you Both
Professor Krugman does not "suffer fools(Trump voters) gladly"...and he shouldn't. The rubes that have been conned by the "Don" (our second white trash president (Jackson was the first)) are in for a rude awakening and I, for one, will enjoy the show. Pain concentrates the mind wonderfully...if you have a mind...
10
Perhaps if Trump and his followers were not so willfully ignorant of reality and history they would know that a major contributor to the depth and length of the Great Depression was the trade war that broke out around the world.
Such a response might be understood out of lack of knowledge at the time but today it is so widely understood that it would appear Trump is intentionally going out of his way to create a trade war and with it a very strong possibility of the next great depression but likely to be even much worse given the changes in today's world economy.
Such a response might be understood out of lack of knowledge at the time but today it is so widely understood that it would appear Trump is intentionally going out of his way to create a trade war and with it a very strong possibility of the next great depression but likely to be even much worse given the changes in today's world economy.
9
Regardless of trade initiatives or the imposition of punitive tariffs, Trump will probably involve the USA in a "nukular" conflict within his term, as his worthy predecessory W43 would pronounce it. So it's all a moot point.
5
With each passing editorial deadline, the sheer preponderance of column after column each with apocalyptic verbiage in describing, or should we say decrying, a tweet, an executive order, or any sort of movement toward acting on explicit campaign promises by the new administration, the use of the shotgun approach is clearly in view. At close range major damage can be done, though often at the expense of a clean kill. This is the essential difference between getting one's way or not. Those now calling all the shots preferred a sniper rifle and their target - complete control of government and the supreme court - was felled in spectacular fashion. In contrast the shotgun approach used by those now in the political wilderness - where the candidate asserted herself as being in favor of not only her wishes but those far to the left of her - they got all the wrong numbers. The result is extreme discontent and a looming internal fracture that will remake their political party. Once more the left gets exactly the opposite of what was desired. They cannot help themselves; it seems pavlovian. With ears plugged, eyes glazed over and minds closed, their future as a viable and principled alternative dims with each tribal gathering.
3
Even more fascinating is assumptions attached to the Trump supporter. Always underestimate... ;)
1
We have to be ready with sensible, doable, solutions for the Trump voters once they are disillusioned. Major reinvestment in the country at the Federal level is a great place to start. Funded in part by the scofflaws & shirkers at the top who pay little tax.
In the mean time we have to get through this ugly period. Resist.
In the mean time we have to get through this ugly period. Resist.
30
What is the greatest tragedy of America?
Take your pick including the election of a Trump. But overall the greatest tragedy is that a country as privileged as the US has not achieved a much higher level of humanity for all its citizens.
Basic health services still denied to so many. Shoddy public school system. Too expensive college and exploiting college loan system.
The list goes on.
14 years living in a country that believes in taking care of its citizens greatest needs and rights has made me an American expatriate that has lost hope for his native country!
Take your pick including the election of a Trump. But overall the greatest tragedy is that a country as privileged as the US has not achieved a much higher level of humanity for all its citizens.
Basic health services still denied to so many. Shoddy public school system. Too expensive college and exploiting college loan system.
The list goes on.
14 years living in a country that believes in taking care of its citizens greatest needs and rights has made me an American expatriate that has lost hope for his native country!
184
Those in parts of the country that suffered the consequences of the influx of foreign made automobiles and other products understand the negative impact on their lives of the global economy and have every reason to be angry about it.
But part of what added credibility to Trump's economic nationalism was the Bernie Sander's echo on the left, creating political stereo. The fullness of the sound captured many of the millennials who seemed oblivious to how much cheap imported goods were an essential component of their lives, from their Chinese made smart phones and laptops to the Japanese made cars they drove to his rallies in. Of course, Hillary Clinton never made a peep in defense of free trade, which was almost like adding another section to the orchestra. (Maybe she was too timid to deserve to be president.)
I still remember the cars American auto makers produced when there was little competition- cars that were designed to fall apart at about 80K, so Americans who could afford it would buy new ones every 4 or 5 years, and those that couldn't would be strapped paying their mechanic to hold their jalopies together.
People often don't notice gradual improvements in their lives, but take them away, and they will howl, and vote the incumbent out of office.
But part of what added credibility to Trump's economic nationalism was the Bernie Sander's echo on the left, creating political stereo. The fullness of the sound captured many of the millennials who seemed oblivious to how much cheap imported goods were an essential component of their lives, from their Chinese made smart phones and laptops to the Japanese made cars they drove to his rallies in. Of course, Hillary Clinton never made a peep in defense of free trade, which was almost like adding another section to the orchestra. (Maybe she was too timid to deserve to be president.)
I still remember the cars American auto makers produced when there was little competition- cars that were designed to fall apart at about 80K, so Americans who could afford it would buy new ones every 4 or 5 years, and those that couldn't would be strapped paying their mechanic to hold their jalopies together.
People often don't notice gradual improvements in their lives, but take them away, and they will howl, and vote the incumbent out of office.
57
Couldn't agree more
5
It seems to me that the Reagan deficits are least to blame for America's trade balance deficit during the 1980s.
Begin by recognizing that the Fed controls interest rates. Volcker raised them to unconscionable heights in the early 1980s, and the trade deficit swelled. It took the 1985 Plaza Accord to get the dollar back down and allow the Fed to lower the interest rate to 6.5%. And then, we had the 1987 Louvre Accord to stop the dollar from depreciating along with the Fed raising the rate to 9.75%.
Deficits have never been a problem in this country -- they might be but they haven't been. Cheney was right: "Ronald Reagan proved deficits don't matter." And someday, PK will get the word.
Begin by recognizing that the Fed controls interest rates. Volcker raised them to unconscionable heights in the early 1980s, and the trade deficit swelled. It took the 1985 Plaza Accord to get the dollar back down and allow the Fed to lower the interest rate to 6.5%. And then, we had the 1987 Louvre Accord to stop the dollar from depreciating along with the Fed raising the rate to 9.75%.
Deficits have never been a problem in this country -- they might be but they haven't been. Cheney was right: "Ronald Reagan proved deficits don't matter." And someday, PK will get the word.
Mr. Krugman has never believed that deficits "matter." What he has stated again and again in his columns is that deficit scolds come out of the woodwork when Democrats are in charge of the budget. D. Cheney's statement should have been that "Reagan proved that deficits don't matter as long as they are Republican party caused deficits!"
53
The vast majority of Americans, and certainly of the white working-class get most of their income from wages that are taxed as "ordinary income." Why would any of us trust that a man who's made most of what he's made on investment and using other peoples' money to build something and then walk away in bankruptcies with a nice chunk of change and paid little, if any, taxes would have our interests at heart?
Instead of another tax cut for the super wealthy, how about the elimination of all special tax treatments for income (capital gains, carried interest, etc.) Income is income, and should all be taxed as "ordinary income."
Instead of another tax cut for the super wealthy, how about the elimination of all special tax treatments for income (capital gains, carried interest, etc.) Income is income, and should all be taxed as "ordinary income."
160
Unfair tax policies are the primary problem. Just as this comment states. If the 0.1% and 0.01% paid their fair share there would be funds to move the population forward and the US would be a a competitive place economically in the world. This is what Goldwater, Powell, and the Reagan puppet masters knew, and the majority of us have been paying since. The current GOP are just the latest incarnation of a truly evil political movement.
Oh, and blaming foreign nations for our loss of jobs, is misdirection. It has been our 0.01% in league with the oligarchs of the world that are the problem. Other governments are just as much the puppets of the oligarchs in other countries as here in the US. The oligarchs of the world united, and the US population bought a bridge, from the GOP - with the Dems/Clintons singing backup.
Oh, and blaming foreign nations for our loss of jobs, is misdirection. It has been our 0.01% in league with the oligarchs of the world that are the problem. Other governments are just as much the puppets of the oligarchs in other countries as here in the US. The oligarchs of the world united, and the US population bought a bridge, from the GOP - with the Dems/Clintons singing backup.
1
It's becoming more obvious that most of the American people have no idea what "Globalization" really means. To some extent the current status is still in the early stages. One way to conceptualize it is to just look back at our own history. The North American Continent was the forerunner of today's internationalism of the manufacturing sector. Various parts of the whole economy were separated in vast distances from each other. Iron was mined in one area, smelted in another, and pounded into usable shape to build a variety of end products in yet another. The Civil War brought this into sharp focus by exposing the weaknesses of the labor market to come when the slave states were unable to defeat the free states due to the scattered separation of heavy industries from farming. Cotton in the South and big textile factories in the North. While these analogies are limited, they open up the concept that Dr. Krugman points out. No nation has a pure and whole self contained economy. The job market suffers from political systems dependent on the cheapest labor that manages to make passable quality.
No one nation is going to shutter itself from without and completely become self contained. The main objective now is political stability across the globe with specialization of industries and high quality labor. Empires fall due to a failure to develop a cooperative international interchange of products, knowledge, and security. There's little time left if the Doomsday Clock is accurate.
No one nation is going to shutter itself from without and completely become self contained. The main objective now is political stability across the globe with specialization of industries and high quality labor. Empires fall due to a failure to develop a cooperative international interchange of products, knowledge, and security. There's little time left if the Doomsday Clock is accurate.
44
While I agree with much that Krugman says here, in fact we need for economists to consider other issues besides interest rates and the strength of the dollar in looking for why jobs are disappearing. And it is jobs, not international trade that should be our goal. Sure, after WW2, the US goal was to increase international trade. But why should this be our goal now?
So while Krugman may enjoy blaming Reagan for making the terms of trade bad for manufacturing, in fact, my question is what do we do now? Wait for the invisible hand (combined with what?) to improve things? Sorry, the invisible hand won’t help us.
Time to recognize that if government policy does not protect US jobs, there will continue to be an endless decline. So in large enterprises, they will continue to shift IT jobs to outsourcings often overseas. And as much as possible, the human element (a person with a job) is removed from commercial interactions. So when you want to know about your bank loan or credit card or whatever, most of the work is automated.
What can be done? I don’t know, but I suggest that we start by removing the advantage that goes to removing jobs. Not in a Trumpian way, but surely there can be something that can be done.
So while Krugman may enjoy blaming Reagan for making the terms of trade bad for manufacturing, in fact, my question is what do we do now? Wait for the invisible hand (combined with what?) to improve things? Sorry, the invisible hand won’t help us.
Time to recognize that if government policy does not protect US jobs, there will continue to be an endless decline. So in large enterprises, they will continue to shift IT jobs to outsourcings often overseas. And as much as possible, the human element (a person with a job) is removed from commercial interactions. So when you want to know about your bank loan or credit card or whatever, most of the work is automated.
What can be done? I don’t know, but I suggest that we start by removing the advantage that goes to removing jobs. Not in a Trumpian way, but surely there can be something that can be done.
28
We need to use our strengths to embrace the future, not by self destructive behavior of protectionism which is a terrible weakness, but by developing a base level of the work force on jobs that can only be done here. We've danced around it for 40 years: alternative energies and infrastructure. Republicanism' have stonewalled both of these among other promising areas such as stem cell healthcare delivery systems and reinvigorating the railways.
Now from yesterday's Times comes word that the GOP will go ahead and spend Federal Tax Player's money because the donald said so. Obama, having been given the cold shoulder made huge inroads in alternative energy, Healthcare delivery with newer advances than we've ever seen and together with the American people cobbled together one of the greatest Recovery's in US history without one republican vote, ever.
The republicans have been useless as partners and have revived the repressive laws from the fifties to the best of their ability. None of their work has benefited the white working class. Even the family farmer is just about extinct. Reagan made sure of that.
C'MON America, stop believing that the conservatives have your best interests at heart. They've made every effort to dumb you down, steal your money, property, and force you into a demoralized state of existence. You voted foolishly.
Now from yesterday's Times comes word that the GOP will go ahead and spend Federal Tax Player's money because the donald said so. Obama, having been given the cold shoulder made huge inroads in alternative energy, Healthcare delivery with newer advances than we've ever seen and together with the American people cobbled together one of the greatest Recovery's in US history without one republican vote, ever.
The republicans have been useless as partners and have revived the repressive laws from the fifties to the best of their ability. None of their work has benefited the white working class. Even the family farmer is just about extinct. Reagan made sure of that.
C'MON America, stop believing that the conservatives have your best interests at heart. They've made every effort to dumb you down, steal your money, property, and force you into a demoralized state of existence. You voted foolishly.
2
The next few years are going to be painful. They are going to be chaotic and disruptive. But they are also going to be eye opening. Republicans no longer have anyone to blame. They are the majority. Either they deliver or those who supported them become disillusioned and vote them out.
Anyone who has been watching the state level knows what is going to happen. They are going to focus on conservative social issues that the majority don't support. Trickle down economics, deregulation, and going after labor will be their focus. The deficit will balloon and they will blame Obama.
Meanwhile China and Europe will continue to move forward and we will be left further behind. This show gets old.
Anyone who has been watching the state level knows what is going to happen. They are going to focus on conservative social issues that the majority don't support. Trickle down economics, deregulation, and going after labor will be their focus. The deficit will balloon and they will blame Obama.
Meanwhile China and Europe will continue to move forward and we will be left further behind. This show gets old.
231
Trump's economic policies are anti American. Even a thought bubble on tariffs, placed on US imports from Mexico, would lower Mexico-US trade, increase the costs for US consumers of those products, and not result in Mexico paying for Trump's Mexican-US wall.
When an administration publicly floats such poor economic policies in their first week, it provides further evidence of their lack of economic rigour in their policies. Throw in tax cuts skewed to favour the mega rich, gutting the ACA and public education, and there is ample evidence the Trump administration is controlled by the 0.1%, for the benefit of the 0.1%.
How Trump was able to gain the votes of around 62 million Americans, is a case study of how voters can be persuaded to vote against their own best interests.
Facts are unimportant to Trump and his supporters. Sadly facts do matter, despite Trump continuing to deny reality.
When an administration publicly floats such poor economic policies in their first week, it provides further evidence of their lack of economic rigour in their policies. Throw in tax cuts skewed to favour the mega rich, gutting the ACA and public education, and there is ample evidence the Trump administration is controlled by the 0.1%, for the benefit of the 0.1%.
How Trump was able to gain the votes of around 62 million Americans, is a case study of how voters can be persuaded to vote against their own best interests.
Facts are unimportant to Trump and his supporters. Sadly facts do matter, despite Trump continuing to deny reality.
135
In thinking about the incredible complexity of policy issues like international trade, I'm reminded of the old story about monkeys and typewriters. If you have a thousand monkeys banging away on a thousand typewriters for a thousand years, eventually one of them will produce Hamlet.
Trump is one of the other monkeys.
Trump is one of the other monkeys.
555
And the Republican party the typewriters?
1
The image and analogy kills me. No accusations, just a simple image to explain the current debacle. Misdirected fools all.
Well, then, Sir, so are pretty much all of us. What's your point?
POTUS may be dim witted, ignorant and a man of poor character, but Paul Ryan, with his lust to destroy Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and the PPACA is the Antichrist.
1322
and to think, the oscar meyer co let him drive the weinermobile
for shame, oscar meyer, for shame
for shame, oscar meyer, for shame
4
You missed the big story, per usual. TRUMP HATES PAUL RYAN. They dislike each other. Ryan stabbed Trump in the back and Trump NEVER FORGETS a slight.
One of the big reasons Trump ran at all this year... was that Obama had humiliated him at the 2011 Correspondents Dinner. Trump took it calmly -- but he planned his revenge, and oh boy, did it every work. It took 5 years, but he did not just defeat the Democrats -- he DESTROYED the Clinton dynasty, and is erasing the Obama "legacy".
Ryan undermined Trump all the way -- criticized him harshly in the press -- refused to support him at the convention -- then, after the Billy Bush tapes, Ryan jerked away his support and REFUSED TO CAMPAIGN for the designated nominee of HIS OWN PARTY.
If you saw Ryan at a press conference on the morning of November 9th....he was literally in shock, barely able to speak. And of course, being a cunning little weasel, Ryan has been backpedaling and trying to cozy up to Trump...NOW that he has won. But frankly, Ryan made it clear that had Trump lost, he was going to repudiate the man and mock him, and distance himself.
And Trump, who values nothing as much as loyalty, KNOWS THIS. He has to work with Ryan because Ryan is Speaker of the House. But just wait: Trump will stick the knife in Ryan's back and SOON.
Don't bet against Donald Trump. Trust me.
One of the big reasons Trump ran at all this year... was that Obama had humiliated him at the 2011 Correspondents Dinner. Trump took it calmly -- but he planned his revenge, and oh boy, did it every work. It took 5 years, but he did not just defeat the Democrats -- he DESTROYED the Clinton dynasty, and is erasing the Obama "legacy".
Ryan undermined Trump all the way -- criticized him harshly in the press -- refused to support him at the convention -- then, after the Billy Bush tapes, Ryan jerked away his support and REFUSED TO CAMPAIGN for the designated nominee of HIS OWN PARTY.
If you saw Ryan at a press conference on the morning of November 9th....he was literally in shock, barely able to speak. And of course, being a cunning little weasel, Ryan has been backpedaling and trying to cozy up to Trump...NOW that he has won. But frankly, Ryan made it clear that had Trump lost, he was going to repudiate the man and mock him, and distance himself.
And Trump, who values nothing as much as loyalty, KNOWS THIS. He has to work with Ryan because Ryan is Speaker of the House. But just wait: Trump will stick the knife in Ryan's back and SOON.
Don't bet against Donald Trump. Trust me.
2
Ryan notably benefited from SS Survivors funds when young, plus more. I am sure that such an honorable man, if SS and other programs are gutted, will be first in line to repay those moneys (plus interest) to the general fund for the benefit of all Americans.
2
Unfortunately Mr. Krugman, you are speaking a foreign language to most DJT supporters. Logic and facts are becoming increasingly irrelevant.
97
Finally Trump stumbles on a policy that both Russia and China can benefit from. Not an easy task Donald, Who knew you had such skills?
117
Gee, Paul you had me nodding my head in agreement all the way through your logical analysis of Trump's economic plan — until the last sentence:
"And the biggest losers, as with health care, will be white working-class voters who were foolish enough to believe that Donald Trump was on their side."
These are the same voters that Trump's opposition will need on its side for the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential election, which today seems like eons in the future but the strategizing needs to begin today. Why are you so bent on insulting them?
Calling white middle class Trump voters "foolish" or "rubes" — another one of your nasty putdowns — is not going to persuade them to vote how you want them to vote in the future. A crucial number of those voters in PA, WI and MI had voted for Obama but became anti-Clinton "deplorables" — and for obvious reasons.
Do you really want to once again alienate a key demographic that your side is going to need on its side?
Yesterday the NYT ran this provocative headline: Steve Bannon Says Media Should ‘Keep Its Mouth Shut.’ However, it omitted the full quote: “The media should be embarrassed and humiliated and keep its mouth shut and just listen for awhile."
Regardless the source, this is good advice.
Continuing to ignore and, worse, denigrate the "foolish" white working class works decidedly against Paul Krugman's best political interests.
That's a galling irony I think we should all want to avoid.
"And the biggest losers, as with health care, will be white working-class voters who were foolish enough to believe that Donald Trump was on their side."
These are the same voters that Trump's opposition will need on its side for the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential election, which today seems like eons in the future but the strategizing needs to begin today. Why are you so bent on insulting them?
Calling white middle class Trump voters "foolish" or "rubes" — another one of your nasty putdowns — is not going to persuade them to vote how you want them to vote in the future. A crucial number of those voters in PA, WI and MI had voted for Obama but became anti-Clinton "deplorables" — and for obvious reasons.
Do you really want to once again alienate a key demographic that your side is going to need on its side?
Yesterday the NYT ran this provocative headline: Steve Bannon Says Media Should ‘Keep Its Mouth Shut.’ However, it omitted the full quote: “The media should be embarrassed and humiliated and keep its mouth shut and just listen for awhile."
Regardless the source, this is good advice.
Continuing to ignore and, worse, denigrate the "foolish" white working class works decidedly against Paul Krugman's best political interests.
That's a galling irony I think we should all want to avoid.
12
Gluscabi, sorry but I have to disagree with you here. You don't tell misguided children "oh you'll figure it out next time, and no one loses" and expect them to behave differently afterwards. In fact we have too many children and adults right now failing to see that bad choices have serious consequences. Many of these Trump supporters took a flying leap with Mr Orange and by the looks of things already they will lose yet again.
1
All those pot-bellied Republicans filling Trump' s gambling casinos in Vegas and elsewhere aren't all .01%ers-there's too many of them. Some days the streets in the Vegas Strip are so crowded with losers who blame Obama for their bad luck you'd think being suckered was the Democrats' fault. I'm watching top Trump strategists present their suckers how really, hugely bad their life is being bled out gambling away the good life Obama saved for them that Republicans gambled away when their 401ks went south along with their jobs. Many of them the same suckers that Reagan scammed waiting in line to do it again.
40
I don't know much in the way of economics. Can someone kindly explain to me how a stronger dollar leads to a decline in manufacturing?
A stronger dollar means that the costs to produce American goods is more expensive for people buying those goods with a currency that is weaker than the dollar. It takes more of a weak currency to purchase goods priced at a stronger currency rate - i.e., the dollar.
18
The stronger the dollar gets, the greater the incentive for consumers worldwide is to buy products produced and sold more inexpensively from elsewhere, most likely Latin America, Asia and Europe. Because of the stronger dollar American goods become more expensive to sell overseas. Despite the hysteria over loss of U.S. jobs to Mexico and Asia, the U.S. has created roughly double the jobs linked to our export economy than have been lost to the import economy. The problem is that the jobs created are different than the jobs lost, and the effort to retrain and match jobless workers has not kept up. It's also worth noting that over the 30+ years of NAFTA, many of the jobs lost have replaced workers with robotics. The manufacturing might be forced back to the U.S., but the workers needed will be a fraction of those needed 30 years ago.
12
Excellent analysis, but Professor Krugman left out the effects of increases in productivity in reducing manufacturing employment. Even if new factories are located in America, they are unlikely to create many manufacturing jobs, and certainly not the large numbers of manufacturing jobs that existed in the past.
The new factories will use more robots to boost productivity, which means fewer workers. Even if some of the old factories are reopened, they will have to be brought up to date with new robots to compete with other factories that start out with lots of highly productive robots.
The main effect will simply be a race to the bottom among the states competing for robotic factories, but even #PresidentTweety isn't going to propose internal tariff boundaries to help the losing states. What will actually happen from a focus on manufacturing will just be fewer jobs, but they'll be manufacturing jobs that are cut out by internal pressures.
Many of the angry losers that voted for Trump were former manufacturing workers who remember "glorious" old days. The memories are false and those days are never coming back.
How long will it take them to realize they've been had? And who will they blame for their disappointment?
You can safely bet they won't blame themselves, Trump, or "alternative facts". If all of "the others" have been eliminated through tariff walls and deportation, there's going to be serious shortage of scapegoats.
The new factories will use more robots to boost productivity, which means fewer workers. Even if some of the old factories are reopened, they will have to be brought up to date with new robots to compete with other factories that start out with lots of highly productive robots.
The main effect will simply be a race to the bottom among the states competing for robotic factories, but even #PresidentTweety isn't going to propose internal tariff boundaries to help the losing states. What will actually happen from a focus on manufacturing will just be fewer jobs, but they'll be manufacturing jobs that are cut out by internal pressures.
Many of the angry losers that voted for Trump were former manufacturing workers who remember "glorious" old days. The memories are false and those days are never coming back.
How long will it take them to realize they've been had? And who will they blame for their disappointment?
You can safely bet they won't blame themselves, Trump, or "alternative facts". If all of "the others" have been eliminated through tariff walls and deportation, there's going to be serious shortage of scapegoats.
1265
They will blame Obama.
3
You can bet that somehow it will be Obama's fault. Or the out of power Democratic party. In their world there are no mirrors, and therefore no reflections, and no need to consider the costs and results of their actions.
6
Placing the proper "blame" will end up being the responsibility of a persistent press that keeps this flawed man's nonsense before the public eye. That is a primary requirement for the Democratic Party too. The key dates are 2018 and 2020.
6
The authoritarian-in-chief shifted our foreign policy toward Mexico and selected, with less than a week into his sham leadership, a foreign enemy to our south for his knucklehead supporters to hate. He will likely reinstate the same bully tactics towards Cuba, and recreate yet another opportunity to shut down trade and travel with Cuba (Florida's Scott is already feeding that narrative by squashing the Cuba/Florida port agreement just yesterday). Scapegoating and re-igniting foreign antagonisms, even with Israel and Palestine this week, will set the stage for his political narrative to rearm American to defend ourselves from foreign countries that he wishes to incite-- Make America great again takes on new meaning with foreign relations and global trade in less than a week in the Oval office.
22
'You can fool some of the people all of the time...'Trump is betting that he can make up for the inevitable destruction of trade wars with a handful of symbolic victories like the expensive and probably temporary Carrier Save. It worked in 2016 and there is only one election to go. Then he can go back to making piles of money with the tax cuts and credits he will have put in place for folks like him who are willing to gamble with other people's money. Thomas Piketty pointed out the disastrous effects of wealth concentration levels that have now been reached in the world (e.g., just before WWI) The top 1% now has a champion in the White House. They all will become richer, but they'll create a world that will be much more dangerous for all of us.
25
When Bernie Sanders opposed TPP, it was a bad idea. When Hillary campaigned on rejecting TPP, Paul Krugman saw wisdom. Now that Trump is President, Krugman is back on his *free trade* high horse. How consistent - not!
In this column, as well as the rest of today's paper, Trump Derangement Syndrome has reached epic proportions.
The Times is so disparaging about our new President that it reads like something out of the novel "1984". Except now the roles are reversed. The democratically elected leader of our nation is wrong, wrong, wrong no matter what he says. The news media keeps lying about Trump, and every day they tell new lies about him. Will there ever be lying fatigue, or are media lies a bottomless pit?
Perhaps Trump is and will be an awful President, but since the news media has called him a pathological liar so many times, screaming this in its headlines, we will never really know how good he may have been with an uninfected media. (I think aliens have been feeding on the so-called brains of reporters and pundits.)
But we now live in a country which seems determined to tear itself apart. Who needs enemies? Russia and China are very happy.
There ought to be a special place in Dante's Inferno for The New York Times.
In this column, as well as the rest of today's paper, Trump Derangement Syndrome has reached epic proportions.
The Times is so disparaging about our new President that it reads like something out of the novel "1984". Except now the roles are reversed. The democratically elected leader of our nation is wrong, wrong, wrong no matter what he says. The news media keeps lying about Trump, and every day they tell new lies about him. Will there ever be lying fatigue, or are media lies a bottomless pit?
Perhaps Trump is and will be an awful President, but since the news media has called him a pathological liar so many times, screaming this in its headlines, we will never really know how good he may have been with an uninfected media. (I think aliens have been feeding on the so-called brains of reporters and pundits.)
But we now live in a country which seems determined to tear itself apart. Who needs enemies? Russia and China are very happy.
There ought to be a special place in Dante's Inferno for The New York Times.
5
Wake up, & smell the coming $20/lb. coffee. ( only the top 1% can afford )None so blind as those who will not see.
NYT lies?!? Really?
NYT lies?!? Really?
25
So we should let Trump's lies pass? Pretend they don't exist? He's lying, repeatedly, and he's trying to silence those within and without government who seek the truth.
28
4 to 5 million illegal voters? "We should maybe take Iraq's oil? Record attendance at the Inauguration when photos clearly show it did not happen?
How else is the media supposed to deal with this guy?
How else is the media supposed to deal with this guy?
23
Throwing sand in the gears of the global supply chain--yeah, that oughta work.
Make America grate again!
Make America grate again!
32
Bernie Sanders has expressly said he supports Trump's policy on trade, so calling for a change in the Democratic leadership could not be more wrong headed.
1
So leaving aside the questions about his competence and just for the sake of argument, my question is: What policies could Trump implement that would help the Rust Belt? Clearly it seems like every approach just delays the "hollowing out" of these rust belt cities. So how can we help them? We have seen Germany become a manufacturing powerhouse, despite being wealthy, so how can the USA achieve the same thing? This seemed to trouble Obama towards the end of his Presidency, and perhaps it was because it was a solvable problem that faced too much resistance from the other side. Yet this seems to also be what Trump wants... in his hamfisted way he wants to "Make America Great Again", yet he seems to have know idea how to go about it. What should he be doing?
303
Germany has strong unions and a history of dialogue (if not always complete cooperation) between state, industry, and unions. Germany also supports and strengthens its working and middle classes through affordable education beyond high school (trade school, apprenticeship, or university), health insurance that is not employer-dependent, and subsidized retraining in marketable skills for people who have become unemployed. The German economy is not perfect, but the lifestyle and prospects of average working- and middle-class people is in many ways superior to their counterparts in the U.S.
9
You could start by looking at German public education, especially higher education, which includes many tuition-free universities. You could also look at their baccalaureate degree education (our "high school" education), and see that it's a bifurcated education from early on, with one side for trade education (and partnering, in the form of apprenticeships, with German companies), and the other for university education (heady stuff, like foreign language study, medicine, or physics). And you could then take a good look at the overall German attitude toward education--one that respects school work in universities and trade schools both.
Meanwhile, over here, our attitude is to cut funding for public education and make fun of students who study hard.
Meanwhile, over here, our attitude is to cut funding for public education and make fun of students who study hard.
9
Apparently Germany trains young people from an early age at community style colleges to work in industry which has become more complex. These young people are paid a small salary to become apprentices but come out as highly skilled workers who can adapt to the more skilled manufacturing jobs available. The manufacturing jobs of old have gone but people in the rust belt in the US just don't have the skills required anylonger. In other words Germany has realised that in order to move forward in a globalised economy a highly skilled work force is required, machines can do the jobs of old and that's a lot cheaper than hiring unskilled workers. Its called moving forward instead of continually looking backwards.
7
Leaving aside DJT's daily nonsense about economics, he should have to address the overall question: " Who will take America's place as the world leader on trade, and why is that good for us ? " as his Wrecking Crew goes about dismantling decade upon decade of trade policy.
The question can't be answered in 140 characters, and would give him the chance to show us (finally) he's indeed " a smart person ".
To this point, like everything else we've seen him do, DJT's actions appear completely ad hoc bullet points with the consistency that would not indicate an organized mind, instead indicating a scattershot/helter-skelter intellect.
The question can't be answered in 140 characters, and would give him the chance to show us (finally) he's indeed " a smart person ".
To this point, like everything else we've seen him do, DJT's actions appear completely ad hoc bullet points with the consistency that would not indicate an organized mind, instead indicating a scattershot/helter-skelter intellect.
18
Isn't it obvious that China is taking our place? Or am I missing something?
3
nodoubt - We agree, but we dare DJT to lay that out for the voters who swallowed his line about " you'll get sick of winning ".
3
Of course economists will tell Trump that tariffs won't work. Economists have a religious devotion to free trade that dates all the way back to Adam Smith, the founder of their discipline.
Expanding world trade is only a good thing if it makes most Americans richer. The experience of the past 40 years suggests that it doesn't.
Krugman here offers no alternatives to endless trade deficits.
Expanding world trade is only a good thing if it makes most Americans richer. The experience of the past 40 years suggests that it doesn't.
Krugman here offers no alternatives to endless trade deficits.
120
Trade deficit with China simply means that more American buys the imported goods than Chinese who buys imported goods into China. If we want to reduce the trade deficit (without doing anythingelse), we could simple reduce our consumption by not buying so much products that are imported into this country. After all, we do not import so much of food products from outside of this country. In fact, USA is the biggest exporter of the food products to the world.
6
Free trade has made some Americans very much richer. The problem is, those riches have been hoarded by the top one percent. With billionaires in charge it is doubtful that anything will change.
9
But we do know that import tariffs make goods more expensive for American consumers, a de facto additional sales tax. This is a regressive tax that falls disproportionally on those least likely to be able to afford it. While under the Grabber's plan, the rich get a real tax cut.
The same can be said of "making stuff in America". This just makes things more expensive for all consumers, to the benefit of a small few.
The Grabber's plan is nothing more than White Welfare. It's time we called him out on this.
The same can be said of "making stuff in America". This just makes things more expensive for all consumers, to the benefit of a small few.
The Grabber's plan is nothing more than White Welfare. It's time we called him out on this.
8
This issue (and others) are meant to distract us from the real issue...Russian influence on the recent Presidential election. It's like selecting a snowflake from an avalanche. Look at the proposed 20 percent tariff on Mexican goods, to be borne by US consumers, in order to pay for a wall. That proposal is already melting to be replaced by the next trial balloon.
23
Mr Trump was not nor could he ever be on the side of working class people. He like many who share his privilege and status as a result of inherited wealth and or deception has no idea of and less interest in how the majority of those who put him in office actually live. Unfortunately for them as well as the rest of us we will soon find out just how big a mistake we made.
The only possible saving grace may be that his uncontrollable greed for attention upsets the cart with those who, in terms of passing the required legislation, he actually needs.
It appears the prevelant thought held is that most of our citizenry, including those who voted for him, will be left in the cold. This requires the legislators who are now falling over themselves in paroxysisms of joy to blindly follow a man few of them trusted and less actually respect. Backflips will become more popular when he starts to come after them.
Mr Trump is no dummy and I for one don't think his ego will give enough rein to anyone including Mike Pence or anyone else to run the show. Those in Congress who consider any political future will get wise and stand up to him before they like Governor Christie are hung out to dry.
We are stuck with him and most of his pals until 2018 at which time, assuming he has not actually wised up to his stablemates, the beginnings of serious change in our politics will be ushered in.
We are a naive and at times even stupid people, but we will soon see that all which glitters isn't 24K
The only possible saving grace may be that his uncontrollable greed for attention upsets the cart with those who, in terms of passing the required legislation, he actually needs.
It appears the prevelant thought held is that most of our citizenry, including those who voted for him, will be left in the cold. This requires the legislators who are now falling over themselves in paroxysisms of joy to blindly follow a man few of them trusted and less actually respect. Backflips will become more popular when he starts to come after them.
Mr Trump is no dummy and I for one don't think his ego will give enough rein to anyone including Mike Pence or anyone else to run the show. Those in Congress who consider any political future will get wise and stand up to him before they like Governor Christie are hung out to dry.
We are stuck with him and most of his pals until 2018 at which time, assuming he has not actually wised up to his stablemates, the beginnings of serious change in our politics will be ushered in.
We are a naive and at times even stupid people, but we will soon see that all which glitters isn't 24K
19
His supporters are more like a cult than a political party. I doubt they'll admit they were wrong, regardless of what destruction he wreaks.
Pompoms waving, they cheer Godzilla's progress through what used to be America.
Sad.
Pompoms waving, they cheer Godzilla's progress through what used to be America.
Sad.
25
trumpzilla
thx for that image
thx for that image
4
"Monsters from the id!"
1
The rust belt was declining for quite a while under previous presidents of both parties. Now it will decline faster. But would it have been helped by the TPP that Obama pushed, or worsened? So what do you advise the Dems to run on, Mr. Krugman?
If the Reagan years were a dress rehearsal than what was Bill Clinton's signing of Nafta? The Dems didn't strongly fight the many negative forces plaguing us---the decline of unions, wages and benefits, the offshoring of jobs, then the profits to tax havens and then the increased profits applied to campaign donations. It was all sold to us as inevitable.
Robert Reich, labor secy in the 90s said the govt should at least have done its duty by budgeting funds for retraining for those laid off after Nafta---or long term unemployment insurance. We have all the excuses for globalization but where is the govt's responsibility to the citizens?
We vote, but what do we get for it, if the campaign sponsors are the same companies that snatch jobs out from under millions of workers? How does our famed democracy remedy this great grievance?
Just blaming all the Repubs in recent history, leading up to the worst of them currently presiding, is so easy now, but hardly adequate---for the conscience of a liberal.
If the Reagan years were a dress rehearsal than what was Bill Clinton's signing of Nafta? The Dems didn't strongly fight the many negative forces plaguing us---the decline of unions, wages and benefits, the offshoring of jobs, then the profits to tax havens and then the increased profits applied to campaign donations. It was all sold to us as inevitable.
Robert Reich, labor secy in the 90s said the govt should at least have done its duty by budgeting funds for retraining for those laid off after Nafta---or long term unemployment insurance. We have all the excuses for globalization but where is the govt's responsibility to the citizens?
We vote, but what do we get for it, if the campaign sponsors are the same companies that snatch jobs out from under millions of workers? How does our famed democracy remedy this great grievance?
Just blaming all the Repubs in recent history, leading up to the worst of them currently presiding, is so easy now, but hardly adequate---for the conscience of a liberal.
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I agree with you. From what I understand, the two possible presidential candidates being groomed by the DNC are Cuomo and Booker. The DNC is neoliberal and as committed to predatory capitalism as the RNC. But they play "identity" chess with people of color, women, lgbtq etc. We have our own fears and anxieties that the Dem party uses. For me, the key is investment in public common institutions (schools, unis, healthcare, parks, environment) and infrastructure and maintaining them. Those are jobs! Also considering using taxes for redistribution of a base wage for everyone rather than pretending that automation in factories can be reversed. And pushing for international standards on labor and environment in relation to trade that create new norms and making the race to the bottom more difficult.
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"If the Reagan years were a dress rehearsal than what was Bill Clinton's signing of Nafta? The Dems didn't strongly fight the many negative forces plaguing us---the decline of unions, wages and benefits, the offshoring of jobs, then the profits to tax havens and then the increased profits applied to campaign donations. It was all sold to us as inevitable."
This is the cold, hard truth, and both parties better fess-up. The GOP and the orange miscreant are just the worst of 2 options. The Dem may be educable.
Bernie was the wrong person at the wrong time. The OM was playing the same tune, but Bernie's followers were as far off base as the OM's followers. Strange how things worked out.
This is the cold, hard truth, and both parties better fess-up. The GOP and the orange miscreant are just the worst of 2 options. The Dem may be educable.
Bernie was the wrong person at the wrong time. The OM was playing the same tune, but Bernie's followers were as far off base as the OM's followers. Strange how things worked out.
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The direct beneficiaries of free trade are the corporations who maximize their profits by outsourcing. The government benefits indirectly as a result of revenues from taxes on corporate profits, and sales taxes from the purchases of the manufactured goods. Most of the increased corporate revenue went to upper management and shareholders in the form of dividends; the displaced workers got the shaft.
Corporations that outsourced their manufacturing had the obligation to care for their former workers by providing for re-education and a “living wage” that would have eased the blow. The government could have contributed substantially by perhaps reducing or even eliminating income taxes for these workers.
The effects on workers whose jobs were lost were easy to forecast. Lay the blame where it belongs: at the feet of the corporate interests who got the better part of the deal.
Corporations that outsourced their manufacturing had the obligation to care for their former workers by providing for re-education and a “living wage” that would have eased the blow. The government could have contributed substantially by perhaps reducing or even eliminating income taxes for these workers.
The effects on workers whose jobs were lost were easy to forecast. Lay the blame where it belongs: at the feet of the corporate interests who got the better part of the deal.
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The current American economic expansion is in peril from the cumulative effect of Trumpian and Republican policies. Currently, we as a nation are enjoying one of the longest economic expansions as measured by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Odds are this will end within the next 3-4 years, or we will break the record for continuous months of economic expansion.
The danger is from not just the Border Adjustment Tax (BAT) which will add and estimated 15% to the cost of everyday goods, but Republican Healthcare which is expected to increase costs to the average consumer by more than 10% for those who can afford it without subsidies, Infrastructure costs paid for tolls imposed by for profit enterprises, and increased costs due to a blown up deficit from Republicans irresponsibly spending while reducing tax revenue.
The cumulative effect will be equivalent to a double annual digit inflation rate that will be borne by Americans making less than $80K per year, which is most of us. This next recession may become a depression. I hope not but I see not only the "Rust Belt" getting rustier but the whole American Economy as well getting rustier due to the combined effects of Trumpian and Republican policies.
When this happens, there will be a political cost.
The danger is from not just the Border Adjustment Tax (BAT) which will add and estimated 15% to the cost of everyday goods, but Republican Healthcare which is expected to increase costs to the average consumer by more than 10% for those who can afford it without subsidies, Infrastructure costs paid for tolls imposed by for profit enterprises, and increased costs due to a blown up deficit from Republicans irresponsibly spending while reducing tax revenue.
The cumulative effect will be equivalent to a double annual digit inflation rate that will be borne by Americans making less than $80K per year, which is most of us. This next recession may become a depression. I hope not but I see not only the "Rust Belt" getting rustier but the whole American Economy as well getting rustier due to the combined effects of Trumpian and Republican policies.
When this happens, there will be a political cost.
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The only recent Great Recession most of us have experienced actually started in 2008 and continued unabated until around 2013. In short, it followed a natural recession/recovery cycle.
I don't blame Obama for starting it (Clinton & Bush have that honor) but I do blame him for slow, small, inadequate responses to the crisis. Obama bailed out BANKS and never prosecuted even one bankster...but left homeowners to twist in the wind or actually lose their homes to foreclosure. My house, in the Rustbelt Midwest, is still worth 60% less than it's peak in 2006.
Most liberals conveniently forget that UP UNTIL the last 4 months of 2008....the economy was as good as it is now, and better in some respects. Housing prices were sky high; the stock market was surging and the jobless rate was as low as today. The labor participation rate was much higher, too.
Today, we are in the SAME KIND of bubble, only thanks to Democrats, and frankly, at some point it will end. Obama was a lucky duck, it did not all blow up in the final months of 2016, but in the end, all bubbles pop. And no President is so powerful that they can totally control not just the economy of the US but the world.
I don't blame Obama for starting it (Clinton & Bush have that honor) but I do blame him for slow, small, inadequate responses to the crisis. Obama bailed out BANKS and never prosecuted even one bankster...but left homeowners to twist in the wind or actually lose their homes to foreclosure. My house, in the Rustbelt Midwest, is still worth 60% less than it's peak in 2006.
Most liberals conveniently forget that UP UNTIL the last 4 months of 2008....the economy was as good as it is now, and better in some respects. Housing prices were sky high; the stock market was surging and the jobless rate was as low as today. The labor participation rate was much higher, too.
Today, we are in the SAME KIND of bubble, only thanks to Democrats, and frankly, at some point it will end. Obama was a lucky duck, it did not all blow up in the final months of 2016, but in the end, all bubbles pop. And no President is so powerful that they can totally control not just the economy of the US but the world.
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Left out of the discussion, including today's essay, is the roll that automation has played in the elimination of manufacturing jobs. If Bethlehem Steel magically opened back up tomorrow producing at whatever its maximum output was, it would employ probably less than 10% of the workforce it once had. And those jobs would not require the broad shoulders, strong arms, and high school education of days past. The jobs would require skills and knowledge that many of Trump's supporters have willfully avoided and even look down their noses at.
On another note; "bigly"? Professor, please!
On another note; "bigly"? Professor, please!
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Bethlehem Steel employed 180,000 people at one time...so given your argument, if they reopened with only 8% of their workforce (the rest handed over to new age technologies), then over 14,000 high paying jobs could be created. Wouldn't that be worth the effort? According the the International Trade Administration (2016), the United States presently "imports steel from 90 countries and territories".
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Sure, and the other 166,000 people still will be out in the cold. And everyone will be paying more for everything that's cheap now. And just how "high-paying" do you think those new jobs will be allowed to be?
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Stone: But those 14,000 jobs would go to HB1 visa imported workers since most of the unemployed steel workers do not have the skills to fill those jobs using the new technology. And they would be doing it for slave wages to keep those CEO's happy with there bonuses.
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Trump and the Republicans are coming for the safety net programs to pay for tax cuts. This is what working class Trumpistas need to hear over and over. Then they might be convinced to work against the Donald and his minions.
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But they won't hear or heed this - they don't read newspapers and watch only Faux News and listen to hate radio.
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Judging from comments on the variety of opinion columns, it seems the deplorables do indeed read newspapers, especially this one, and in more correct grammatical form than that of the liberal faithful. This does not suggest a deluded or aimless cohort; rather an educated and disciplined minority of NYT readers who stand in opposition to liberal politics in general or are actual Trump supporters. This 25% of commentary readership, by our informal counting over time, is indicative of a serious problem for the left when it comes to actually electing someone. Best tend your garden before mocking the yield of the others'.
Dr. Krugman, the president did win, but at America's expense. His first week in office has been like a hurricane, with one stormy downpour up after another. He has dominated news cycles but that seems to be his agenda. His alternative-facts presidency thus far is a complete carnival, highlighted by angry and pugnacious outbursts by his press secretary and White House counsel.
The Rust Belt welcomed with open arms the Christian wrong and alt-wrong attitudes of the reactionary GOP. The president, waving his staff like Moses did, turned the upper mid-west into the Red Sea and they happily gave him their votes for the promise of a better America. What was wrong with America in the first place? Sure, America isn't perfect but neither is it the Bowery that the president says it is.
The Rust Belt welcomed with open arms the Christian wrong and alt-wrong attitudes of the reactionary GOP. The president, waving his staff like Moses did, turned the upper mid-west into the Red Sea and they happily gave him their votes for the promise of a better America. What was wrong with America in the first place? Sure, America isn't perfect but neither is it the Bowery that the president says it is.
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"And the biggest losers, as with health care, will be white working-class voters who were foolish enough to believe that Donald Trump was on their side."
Dr. Krugman, the 2016 campaign was all about race: Mexicans, Muslims, Asians, "inner city war zones and carnage" (read: African-Americans). Donald Trump's campaign began in 2011 with his slander of the sitting president. He husbanded the resentment of failing whites against the black president. He blamed President Obama for the loss of their self-esteem, place and privilege. Economics and trade were the smoke and mirrors in his quest to "make America great again."
Trump counted on the stupidity of his swelling nation to forget simple economic policy: if you spend more than you take in, you'll have a deficit that seeks a balance from another place in the budget. Paul Ryan, the "deficit scold-in-chief" has more than gone quiet. He and other Republicans are in retreat, physically as well as figuratively, in Philly, congratulating themselves and their new president. They're all older white men, smiling and prosperous, now that they have what Grover Norquist always wanted, someone with "working digits" to rubber-stamp the far-right's agenda.
Trump will rip open the safety net that whites think only benefit "the other," not having the first clue that they're blinding themselves and their own with the sharp stick that they think to take to "the other."
Trump's their worst nightmare but they created it. Bigly.
Sad.
Dr. Krugman, the 2016 campaign was all about race: Mexicans, Muslims, Asians, "inner city war zones and carnage" (read: African-Americans). Donald Trump's campaign began in 2011 with his slander of the sitting president. He husbanded the resentment of failing whites against the black president. He blamed President Obama for the loss of their self-esteem, place and privilege. Economics and trade were the smoke and mirrors in his quest to "make America great again."
Trump counted on the stupidity of his swelling nation to forget simple economic policy: if you spend more than you take in, you'll have a deficit that seeks a balance from another place in the budget. Paul Ryan, the "deficit scold-in-chief" has more than gone quiet. He and other Republicans are in retreat, physically as well as figuratively, in Philly, congratulating themselves and their new president. They're all older white men, smiling and prosperous, now that they have what Grover Norquist always wanted, someone with "working digits" to rubber-stamp the far-right's agenda.
Trump will rip open the safety net that whites think only benefit "the other," not having the first clue that they're blinding themselves and their own with the sharp stick that they think to take to "the other."
Trump's their worst nightmare but they created it. Bigly.
Sad.
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Deficits only matter when Democrats are in power!
22
Cuts to Social Security and Medicare, more uninsured, higher deficits, higher unemployment, privatized schools where your education depends on your income, cuts to subsidized housing, Medicaid slashed, civil rights trampled, destruction of trade agreements, isolation from foreign countries, government sanctioned torture, loss of leadership in the world...Making America Great Again with "alternative facts". George Orwell's 1984 has arrived.
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Nobody has cut SS or Medicare -- Trump promised to leave those programs alone -- nobody has even proposed a BILL to cut Medicare or SS.
And what "higher unemployment"? the man has been President for ONE WEEK this afternoon...ONE WEEK! He couldn't have affected anything much in a week.
Also: that is not even remotely what "1984" is about.
And what "higher unemployment"? the man has been President for ONE WEEK this afternoon...ONE WEEK! He couldn't have affected anything much in a week.
Also: that is not even remotely what "1984" is about.
1
I've spent the past year listening to angry and vindictive trump supporters scream about walls, Muslims, locking up ms Clinton and blaming minorities and foreigners for their problems, real and imagined. They never cared what Trumps programs and policies were because he didn't have any. So long as he told them they were righteous victims and he alone would fix their problems and "punish" the "wrongdoers" they loved him, voted for him and will never withdraw their support no matter how corrupt trump shows himself to be, how many devastating decisions he makes or how much they suffer. They wanted a strong man fascist and that's what they got.
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What he did was flatter their ignorance.
25
Regrettably I am stuck with it too... along with the majority of voters in the US who did not vote for Trump.
4
I would just like to point out that one of the main reasons for America's post WWII economic ascent was its policy of de-colonisation. By breaking up empires rather than creating its own, the US created a world in which newly-independent countries could now trade on their own terms. This benefitted the US greatly since these new nations would certainly want to trade with the most powerful economy at the time--i.e. the US. What happened in the years since is that capital has become more mobile than labour and so as business owners look to expand, they look to expand overseas, where costs of production are cheaper. This lead to a concentration of capital in the hands of people who had enough of it to establish transnational supply chains. As such, people who relied on their labour to make money lost out since their wages were going overseas. Now Trump is right in trying to get such people jobs again--they have no way of earning money otherwise. This will require government spending and so far, it seems like he is willing to spend. But why he would do this while slashing taxes on the rich escapes me. Doing so would only diminish his capacity to spend on the working class and worsen the concentration of capital that led in part to this "hollowing out" of American manufacturing to begin with.
15
The Trump clown car routine of the last day, with two opposing claims about paying for the $25 billion Mexico Wall with border adjustment taxes, is hardly reassuring about the economic depth of the Administration.
The Trump Administration is deeply experienced in flim flam routines, profiting from bankruptcies, mortgage and foreclosure fraud, pyramid schemes, for-profit diploma mills, fake news and flagrant lies.
But above all, the Trump Administration feeds on fear. And a fearful, cowering part of the US populace responds favorably to striking out at the world, even in a wildly uncontrolled and flailing way.
If you thought the GOP budget shutdowns that cost tens of billions were counterproductive, you haven't seen anything yet. The masterminds of the Shutdowns from the Freedom Caucus, are now steering the ship.
Buckle up, it's gonna be a wild ride.
The Trump Administration is deeply experienced in flim flam routines, profiting from bankruptcies, mortgage and foreclosure fraud, pyramid schemes, for-profit diploma mills, fake news and flagrant lies.
But above all, the Trump Administration feeds on fear. And a fearful, cowering part of the US populace responds favorably to striking out at the world, even in a wildly uncontrolled and flailing way.
If you thought the GOP budget shutdowns that cost tens of billions were counterproductive, you haven't seen anything yet. The masterminds of the Shutdowns from the Freedom Caucus, are now steering the ship.
Buckle up, it's gonna be a wild ride.
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Thus always has it gone among tyrants.
2
As Mr. Krugman has lamented for decades, math remains the
GOPs greatest enemy along with facts and truth.
A 20 percent tariff on Mexican goods is a fruit vegetable
and gas tax on the American people. The Americn people will
pay for the silly wall, not Mexico.
just about everything made here has parts from somewhere else.
The WWC bought the con, they will live to regret it
GOPs greatest enemy along with facts and truth.
A 20 percent tariff on Mexican goods is a fruit vegetable
and gas tax on the American people. The Americn people will
pay for the silly wall, not Mexico.
just about everything made here has parts from somewhere else.
The WWC bought the con, they will live to regret it
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We will pay twice. Once to build it, plus the tariff tax on things we buy. What a deal.,
4
Dear Paul,
what are you recommendations to proactively resist... and do they look anything like these...
Rebuilding Our Crumbling Infrastructure
Reversing Climate Change
Creating Worker Co-ops
Growing the Trade Union Movement
Raising the Minimum Wage
Pay Equity for Women Workers
Trade Policies that Benefit American Workers
Making College Affordable for All
Taking on Wall Street
Health Care as a Right for All
Protecting the Most Vulnerable Americans
Real Tax Reform
what are you recommendations to proactively resist... and do they look anything like these...
Rebuilding Our Crumbling Infrastructure
Reversing Climate Change
Creating Worker Co-ops
Growing the Trade Union Movement
Raising the Minimum Wage
Pay Equity for Women Workers
Trade Policies that Benefit American Workers
Making College Affordable for All
Taking on Wall Street
Health Care as a Right for All
Protecting the Most Vulnerable Americans
Real Tax Reform
54
Let's talk about wealth creators. Improved profitability has resulted from improved methods, more than from wage declines. Improved methods include computerization and use of robots. A typical auto plant today has half as many human workers as the equivalent plant fifty years ago.
Where do the automation improvements come from? Or, rather, who do they come from? Well, they do not come from the stockholders who get all the profits. Instead, they come from middle level engineers and technical specialists, usually salaried middle class people.
If the wealth creators should get the increased profits, we need a radical reorganization of ownership. Those mid-level engineers should get the money, not the owners (who mostly inherited their stock). Specifically, we need to end large scale inheritance. And we need to tax the income of the owners at the same rate as the earnings of the middle class, not at the half rate of capital gains laws introduced by Bill Clinton.
To see what else we need go to YouTube and watch Comedy Party Platform (2 min 9 sec). Good luck America. Thanks. [email protected]
Where do the automation improvements come from? Or, rather, who do they come from? Well, they do not come from the stockholders who get all the profits. Instead, they come from middle level engineers and technical specialists, usually salaried middle class people.
If the wealth creators should get the increased profits, we need a radical reorganization of ownership. Those mid-level engineers should get the money, not the owners (who mostly inherited their stock). Specifically, we need to end large scale inheritance. And we need to tax the income of the owners at the same rate as the earnings of the middle class, not at the half rate of capital gains laws introduced by Bill Clinton.
To see what else we need go to YouTube and watch Comedy Party Platform (2 min 9 sec). Good luck America. Thanks. [email protected]
17
Trump floated the idea that his beautiful wall would be paid for by taxing Mexican imports 20%. Senator Lindsey Graham called that proposal "mucho sad." Eventually, Trump came out and walked it back by saying it was only one idea among many. The other thing Trump did, which is far more serious, is cause the president of Mexico to cancel a scheduled visit and take US-Mexican relations to the lowest point imaginable, for no good reason.
That Trump and the GOP are up to the worst is a given. Why then are Democrats not uniting in opposition to them? Why are certain Democrats breaking rank and not presenting a united front in opposition and resistance to Trump and the GOP? When all is said and done in 2018 and in 2020, how much better will Democrats fare if they are perceived to have collaborated with the GOP on policy that is certain to have an adverse impact for decades to come? The Democratic leadership needs to radically change or else the party will be in even bigger trouble.
This time should be a time in which Democrats present a united front in resistance to the GOP. Triangulation is no way to run the resistance. You can't ask voters to resist while quietly making deals with the other side. The GOP didn't over the last six years. Look at where they are.
As James Baldwin said "I can't believe what you say, because I see what you do." Democrats and Republicans should take it for granted that it applies to them equally. Democrats! Resist! http://wp.me/p2KJ3H-2xk
That Trump and the GOP are up to the worst is a given. Why then are Democrats not uniting in opposition to them? Why are certain Democrats breaking rank and not presenting a united front in opposition and resistance to Trump and the GOP? When all is said and done in 2018 and in 2020, how much better will Democrats fare if they are perceived to have collaborated with the GOP on policy that is certain to have an adverse impact for decades to come? The Democratic leadership needs to radically change or else the party will be in even bigger trouble.
This time should be a time in which Democrats present a united front in resistance to the GOP. Triangulation is no way to run the resistance. You can't ask voters to resist while quietly making deals with the other side. The GOP didn't over the last six years. Look at where they are.
As James Baldwin said "I can't believe what you say, because I see what you do." Democrats and Republicans should take it for granted that it applies to them equally. Democrats! Resist! http://wp.me/p2KJ3H-2xk
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Before the election, we were having a debate on the fate of the ACA. That debate, obviously, is now moot. Whatever comes next, however, must be 100% owned by the GOP, with only resistance from Democrats. From my linked piece, on the topic of healthcare:
"Looking back at President Obama’s signature legislation, the Affordable Care Act, it was a prime example of triangulation. The legislation was modeled after a conservative think tank’s healthcare policy. Romneycare was implemented by then Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts. Did triangulating on healthcare yield the desired result? Obviously, it hasn’t, as Obamacare is now in the process of being dismantled. The Hill reports that a Republican senator is preparing to introduce legislation that would ensue pre-existing conditions continue to be covered after the ACA is replaced:
““We want to make sure that people with pre-existing conditions continue to get covered,” House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Greg Walden (R-Ore.) said on CNN Thursday. “In fact, I’ll introduce a bill next week that will provide and reaffirm that commitment from Republicans.””
On the surface, this would seem like just the kind of effort Democrats should support. Right? The Hill’s article goes on to describe a rather significant caveat:"
http://www.rimaregas.com/2017/01/dear-dems-youre-the-opposing-party-do-y...
"Looking back at President Obama’s signature legislation, the Affordable Care Act, it was a prime example of triangulation. The legislation was modeled after a conservative think tank’s healthcare policy. Romneycare was implemented by then Governor Mitt Romney of Massachusetts. Did triangulating on healthcare yield the desired result? Obviously, it hasn’t, as Obamacare is now in the process of being dismantled. The Hill reports that a Republican senator is preparing to introduce legislation that would ensue pre-existing conditions continue to be covered after the ACA is replaced:
““We want to make sure that people with pre-existing conditions continue to get covered,” House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Greg Walden (R-Ore.) said on CNN Thursday. “In fact, I’ll introduce a bill next week that will provide and reaffirm that commitment from Republicans.””
On the surface, this would seem like just the kind of effort Democrats should support. Right? The Hill’s article goes on to describe a rather significant caveat:"
http://www.rimaregas.com/2017/01/dear-dems-youre-the-opposing-party-do-y...
3
Mexico isn't going to pay for the wall. Doing so would be a profound humiliation for the Mexican people. They won't agree to that, not ever.
We spend $597 billion per year on national defense. We can easily afford $20 billion for a border wall.
We spend $597 billion per year on national defense. We can easily afford $20 billion for a border wall.
1
It's ironic to hear Ms. Regas call for a Democratic united front.
35