The Dow’s Record Rise Sends a Former Wall Street Stock Broker Back in Time

Jan 25, 2017 · 54 comments
Zaleski (Sedona)
The author is correct. The bull run was entirely predicated upon Trump's success in tax and HC reform. Both are DOA. Therefore the market is way overvalued. Watch for a 20% plus correction in DJIA and over 30% in NASDAQ. Note that the top 10 stocks on NASDAQ make up OVER 40% of the total value. Those FAANG, etc have INSANE multiples. Netflix and Amazon have 200 Res TWO HUNDRED. "Analysts" and other talking heads spout off that those stocks' fundamentals are irrelevant that other 'metrics' must be applied.

So a company's balance sheet is now irrelevant? Location, location, location in RE no longer matters too? INSANITY
Objective Opinion (NYC)
I believe the primary driver of the stock market has been the low interest rate environment. Cash is being pulled out of traditional money market funds and being invested in the 'ever increasing Dow'. Good luck - rates are rising, like they should be. The low rate environment was a manipulation of the Fed and other Central Banks. When you artificially force rates one way or the other, there are bound to be repercussions. The length of time we've been in this environment only increase the likelihood there will be a serious correction. Debt takes the life out of growth - we're at $21 trillion and growing. We can't keep spending money we don't have - it's an unsustainable course of action.
Cheekos (South Florida)
I retired as a financial advisor five years ago, after 39 years in the business. My firm hadn't used the term "Customers' Man"; but, at that time, I believe that most brokers did, indeed, work on behalf of the (ow called) clients.

But, the emphasis, handed-down from up above was, to bring-in clients, set them up in a "package", which charged quarterly fees, and the morn was ,managed at the home office. This, the client never got to speak directly to whomever was managing their money. The reverse was true, as well; but the firm s don't seem to care. Just being 'em in, package them up, and move on to the next new business prospect.

I was glad to see the CFPB devised, as part of the Dodd-Frank Legislation, which would was devised controls to rein-in the banks. and Donald Trump wants to repeal it. So, if that happens, we might return to 2008, and that Finance ill Abyss, that President George W. Bush had warned us about.

Regulation is good, when it provides some security for the little guy, and what money they have accumulated over a working career. Its too bad that all members of Congress and participants in the financial services industry are not required to take some ethics training.

https://thetruthoncommonsense.com
Cheekos (South Florida)
The rise we have--creating the bubble that never should have been--was good for the pundits and journalists. The 20,000 filled a lot of air time and page space, but as any sane market watcher knows: there really wasn't any THERE...there! Nothing has really changed that much, except valuations have just become overpriced.

There are those people who assume that corporate profits will just rally, and rally some more, because D. J. trump is going to lower business taxes and eliminate virtually all regulations. Yes, we'll still drive on the right, after Trump though.
And, just think of all those jobs that Trump its bringing back, by forcing the companies to shift plants back Three things will ultimately happen!

1. CEOs and Board Members will be sued by their shareholders for making idiotic decisions, based on an ideological trumped-up person.
2. How many time will it take to screw the average worker, before the actual Consumer-Class has no more money to buy goods and services. They're realizing that Trickle-Down, even dressed-up as Dynamic Scoring, is just as George H. W. Bush said, in 1980,"Voodoo Economics.
3. And two can play at the trade War Game, and as it goes global, we can begin to compare it to The Great Recession.

As Professor Joseph Schiller said, the recent rally has been so much Psychology, not reality.

https://thetruthoncommonsense.com
Don McDonald (Celebration, FL)
This article took me back. There must have been something going on in the days of “stocks and socks” (Dean Witter was part of the Sears Financial Network) that led a few DWR brokers to careers in the financial journalism.

In 1983, I joined DWR as a rookie stockbroker. Out of a training class of 15 men and one woman (no minorities), I was the only one to see my third year. It was a brutal business of cold-calling nights (where an assistant manager ran between cubicles screaming “churn ‘em, burn ‘em”), product pitches (for everything from 8.5% commissioned limited partnerships to proprietary “no-load” funds “in drag” - that actually paid us 5% commissions), and constant pressure to meet your sales quota or face termination.

While a lucrative career (making $100K in your latest twenties was addicting), it was hard on the conscience. In 1986, I opted for an 80% pay cut to pursue my real passion, radio. A few years later, I was able to combine my broadcasting skills with the knowledge gained at Dean Witter to launch an almost 30-year career helping folks understand what was being done to them by much of Wall Street on my talk shows.

Ms. Morgenson, I hope that our little band of former Dean Witter brokers continues to nudge financial consumers away from traditional Wall Street (and those unscrupulous insurance "investment" salespeople) and toward those who act in the best interests of their clients at all times. Keep up the great work!
Zaleski (Sedona)
I am an RIA and was with big firms, including DWR. Slam the phones, hit them hard. ask for More and more $$$. NOT at my current firm. www.thomascapitalmgt.com
Paul (Portland)
Is cutline accurate? Fifth from the left looks like a woman, but I might be mistaken.
Don McDonald (Celebration, FL)
The fifth person from the left is supposed to be a woman; the article's author.
Beth! (Colorado)
The market went up 300%+ under Obama -- steadily. And the response from media and Wall Street was ... stony silence. It goes up 9% (driven in part by cronies) under Trump and there is flurry of response. This is part of what's wrong in this country.

Obama had us in rehab and now Trump thinks we're healthy enough to go back on the crack. Let's see how soon it crashes.
Joel A. Levitt (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
I was a summer intern at a distinguished Wall Street investment banker and brokerage in 1957. This firm was the principal underwriter of a new issue that was first offered in June and had increased in price by 400% by August. In September, it decreased to about its initial price. The investment banker's partners made a fortune, not so the investors.

My advice: If you are considering buying most IPOs, buy $19.95 pills that enable your car to run on water, instead.
SteveRR (CA)
Sure - like Google, Amazon, Netflix, Apple, Facebook and Microsoft - all of whom I participated in.
barry (boston, ma)
I buy for retirement! Having the stock market go up is not a good thing for me. It opens me up to buying high and selling low!
A. Gideon (New York, NY)
We are still waiting to see 17% women in the NYT financial pages.
John (Hartford)
There are few greater equity believers than myself. It beats all the other mainstream asset classes hands down. However, that doesn't mean it's not irrational from time to time. The EMH had to be one of the most nonsensical notions of all time. Right now I'm somewhat wealthier than last Friday but there are distinct signs of irrational exuberance exuberance starting to creep in.
Zaleski (Sedona)
Correct sir. When a company such as Netflix misses earnings HUGE and the price increases, that's plain insane. AMZN with a 200 PE? NFLX is over 200 forward earnings. Firms are STILL praising it that it will go higher. Musical chairs?
Jan (NJ)
The market has been up since President Trump was elected. People are optimistic and the great companies of the U.S. are highly optimistic. Just like the lottery one must be in it to win. Over decades nothing has given the return and performed as the American stock market. When corporate tax rates are reduced that will spur on more activity. Nothing like judicious spending and no bloat and no politician as president. It is great.
John (Hartford)
@Jan
NJ

Er...on November 8, 2016 the Dow was almost three times higher than it was in the first quarter of 2009. Are you confidently predicting it will be at around 60,000 on November 8, 2024?
MainLaw (Maine)
Yes, that's true, but there are good times to get in and bad times to get in and this is probably not a good time because there's so much uncertainty. At the very least, if you're going in, hedge your bets by dollar-cost averaging your way in rather than dumping a pile of cash into this market.
W White (NYC)
" a customer’s man. That’s Wall Street parlance — from the early 20th century anyway — for people who bought and sold securities for investors."

Customer's men (or salesmen, or representatives, etc.) do NOT buy or sell anything.
They take orders from customers that other people (traders, etc.) execute (buy or sell).

If you don't like something, at least get its terminology straight.
WW
Andrew Mitchell (Seattle)
All salespeople take orders for the the real owners to sell or buy
DavidLibraryFan (Princeton)
I use interactive brokers and ninjatrader for futures and forex. Started my trading career with some pretty awful retail services. Pretty happy with who I'm with over what I had in the past.

I've made some of my biggest profits shorting IPOs. When the crash happened I just switched my position to ride the down wave. I didn't ride it down all the way however. I began buying in reverse after the bottom was hit however still walked away from both positions relatively well off.

I don't give advice but the advice given in the article is good. One thing I think lacks in a great deal of the advice given out is perseverance. I once lost $250k in the market in my earlier days all of which took a lot of saving up. It was a hard lesson learned and I got back into the "game' with just a few hundred dollars. While I bash the lower end retail brokerage firms I will give them this, the start up costs are much lower and I was able to used that to my benefit and I'm thankful those services existed at the time. So the only thing I can leave here is just..I often read about people's bad experience in the market, to me that's no reason to give up. It's a lesson learned is all.
Hamid Varzi (Tehran, Iran)
I am firmly in the camp that believes there will be a massive stock market surge followed by a similar or even greater bust:

The surge will be boosted by lower tax rates and and repatriated corporate profits, while the bust will occur on the back of higher interest rates, massive tariff- and wage-induced inflation (unemployment is already at a 10 year low) and, most importantly, anti-protectionist measures by competing economies and power blocs (Just yesterday Theresa May promised the U.K. would have the lowest tax rates in the G20).

So this is indeed Reaganomics on steroids. It will increase the Wealth Gap to unprecedented levels and risk civil riots. Any provable financial scandals by the presidency will lead to impeachment. Trump's warmongering statements to the rest of the world, whether relating to Palestine, China or a false flag operation in the Persian Gulf, will create a worse fall-out than the invasion of Iraq. Boom and bust are pre-programmed.
Rudi (<br/>)
If the CEO of the company (country) comes across as a dope (or mentally unhinged), sell the stock. So, it's probably time to short America -- or depose the CEO, one would suppose.
SteveRR (CA)
And what would you do if your CEO only had Community Organizer on his resume?
MainLaw (Maine)
If it was 2008 and his name was Obama I'd buy like crazy then and sell right now.
Zaleski (Sedona)
Obama cratered the DJIA by over 50%. Nice try
DBL (MI)
The Dow has climbed because Wall Street is excited that they are going to get everything they want from Trump.

The economy will tank before his 4 years are up.
DR (New Jersey)
The remarkable duplicity of the rating agencies. If any other country had reneged on their commitment they would have downgraded the ratings and here US is going back on every single commitment and there is no question of downgrading of sovereign rating.
WestSider (NYC)
The biggest difference since Oct. 87 crash is the fact that back then, no one gambled with the money in everyone's bank accounts as leverage. Commercial Banking was separate back then. I remember the crash, I was caught with my pants down with 100s of calls in various companies, including Santa Fe.

Wall Street had a lot more integrity back then, which isn't saying much, but analysts weren't pimping stocks, they really did quality research. Then many of them left forming their own Hedge Funds. But the Internet Commercialization made it just too easy to be greedy. They took companies public that should've never seen the light of day. The rest is human greed history.
JW (New York)
"the economy is robust" Huh? In the last eight years, GDP growth never made it to 3%. Is that your definition of robust? Why do you think interest rates are still so low? And if it's so robust, why did so much of Middle America -- the Rust Belt -- vote for Trump in the first place? It is robust on Park Ave, Tribeca, the Hamptons, Beverly Hills, Silicon Valley/Bay Area. Hey, you're not still in that Coastal Elite bubble, are you?
LKofEnglish (St Elena Island)
Second fastest move higher in stocks only equalled by the dotcom mania of 1999.

Market "players" have become addicted to low interest rates.

I think Dow 30,000 in six weeks might wake a few people up as to what is going on however.
reader (Maryland)
Dow under Obama +148%, under Bush II -22%, under Clinton +225%, under Bush I +45%.

If you want to live like a Republican vote Democrat.
Jimmy (Santa Monica, CA)
credit Harry Truman for that bit of wisdom!
Ozzinny (Darien, NY)
Donald's Chumps
That would be every one of us.
Kris (<br/>)
Don't count me in. I didn't vote for him.
merc (east amherst, ny)
Once again, lost in the discussion is how the Dow doubled (and then some) during the Obama Presidency.

George W. Bush Dow: Started at 10.8 Ended at 8.5

Barack Obama Dow: Started at 8.5 Ended at 19.7

Obama handed Trump an economy rising but the story will emerge how Trump was responsible for the Dow breaking 20,000. Trump should get little mention right now. The jury's out on 'Trump and the Dow' until he leaves office.
joanne (Pennsylvania)
As an investor observer with a lot at stake, I credit the Obama Administration with stock market gains. Even the occasional volatile Jim Cramer said the same.
Trump is neither great nor a not a blaze of glory. He's just here.
He keeps talking about waterboarding and stunning changes in our national policy. It is as if someone whispered into his ear to speak of the worst forms of torture. Any person with logic and reasoning would ask where is this coming from?
This is all very strange.
RM (Vermont)
I have a good idea of what industries are likely to prosper, and which will not. But for a small investor, analysis of individual companies is fraught with peril.

But for a few shares in an individual stock or two, all my market money is invested in EFTs. I have not dealt with a brokerage house or "customers man" in years. I learned after 2000 that they served many masters, and I was not one of them.
Lance Brofman (New York)
Some in the stock markets claim Trump is another Reagan. Their view is that stocks will surge under Trump in a manner to what happened under Reagan There are numerous flaws in this analogy.

Reagan was a believer in the metaphor of the leaky bucket. That, as proposed by Arthur Okun, is that when the government acts to transfer money from one entity or group to another it uses a leaky bucket to do so. Administrative costs and inefficiencies cause the gains to the beneficiaries of the government action to be less than the costs to the losers or those who pay the bills. While Reagan may not have personally read the work of Arthur Okun or that of Vilfredo Pareto whose concept of Pareto optimality preceded and could can be considered to have led to Okun's metaphor of the leaky bucket, Reagan certainly appointed economists to leading positions who were fluent in and proponents these concepts.

A prime example of a leaky bucket government action that Reagan and/or his advisors would have seen as not being Pareto optimal occurred recently. Reagan would have known that the gains to the employees of the Carrier Division of United Technologies (UTC) and the parent company's shareholders would always be less than the costs to the taxpayers of Indiana and the purchasers of the Carrier products that resulted from the government interference with the plan by UTC to produce those products in the most efficient least costly manner in Mexico...."
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4033258
g.i. (l.a.)
Who is benefiting from Dow's record high? Definitely not the masses. Once again Wall Street shows their greediness. But that bubble will burst. There will be a recession. The high is a false positive based on fake news emanating from Trump. Higher employment rates are camouflaging the truth. Corporations will not give in to Trump's demands to keep factories in the USA, if they can make their products cheaper overseas. Higher taxes on imports impacts consumers here. Domestic prices will be higher for imported items. It's about supply and demand, and not Trump's dishonest pronouncements.
Matityahu (Western Hemisphere)
The only thing you got mostly right was the part about the masses
Fred (Klunge)
Hollywood, definitely. I doubt we'll see Clooney, Streep, Judd, Affleck et al. protest Trump by pulling out of the market, though.
Duane Wetick (Erie, PA)
I'm re-reading " The Money Game" again.
Dusty Chaps (Tombstone, Arizona)
Well, isn't that sweet, Duane Wetick, so you're reading a book. You must be an intellectual of some type to have never learned the only behavior that matters in investing 101. Buy low, Sell high. And don't be a pig about
taking a profit. Well, actually, that's two behaviors, isn't it. Oh, I know, read Fred Schwed's classic, "Where are all the customer's yachts?" The profit making outline he provides still works. You can thank me for this excellent suggestion online here on this thread.
steve stadther (eagan,mn)
It is always a pleasure to read the work of a fellow Minnesotan.
I think right now there is an imbalance between capital and labor.
Between robotics and Artificial intelligence labor is losing leverage
every day . If you have a house and a stock portfolio you are seeing gains.
Your wages may be stagnant but you are moving up.
Capital will realize these gains , Labor will not.
I believe that is the mega trend every thing will circle around.
JTE (Chicago)
One thing that hasn't changed is that financial reporters still can write entire articles without ever referring to the distribution of wealth. If there was a daily index of the distribution of wealth, rather than the daily fetish with the Dow Jones average, regular people might be less uninformed about the real economy. But it's good to see that different identity groups are better represented. Those symbols will be comforting as we continue to concentrate wealth for the Davos crowd so they can survive the end of our species.
Ole Holsti, George V. Allen Professor Emeritus, Duke University (Salt Lake City, UT)
Steer clear of brokers on commissions. Stick to no-load funds.
mhonig7 (somerset, NJ)
Steer clear of no-load funds; buy etf index funds.....
BigGuy (Forest Hills)
Every year, Dalbar, an investment advisory service, evaluates the performance of brokerage accounts. Performance is determined by looking at lots of separate brokerage accounts at lots of firms, not at the performance of financial products. Very consistently, for decades, what performs best are full service brokerage accounts directly owning common stocks, not using margin, rarely using options, and very rarely investing in futures.

Doesn't that contradict what finance professors and Money magazine and what statistics for mutual funds show?

Yes, it does contradict all that received information. The best performing accounts are BIG. $10+ million individual accounts have the best performance. Anywhere from a tenth to half the stock is inherited with a very low cost basis, making above average performance much more likely. The brokers reassure those investors not to sell and not to borrow. The brokers get paid when some of the dividends are reinvested into buying more stock.

Them's that has gets. The Rich get richer. It was ever thus.
aeg (Needham, MA)
Ms. Morgenson:
I applaud your writing and the sensible insights, observations, and advice you provide us, NYT's readers. I hope to continue reading your fine column for many years to come.

Prof. Holsti:
For neophytes, how about ETFs, too?

My observation about brokers:
Most brokers as most anyone in the sales business are well meaning, but the "average" broker as the "average" civilian in any profession are unlikely to provide significant returns above or below "average."
From more than 55 years of calm investing and of patience, I have benefited "rather well." From my experience, it appears investors, generally, trade too often and have unrealistic expectations. Equity investing is for "long term" money that one isn't expected to use or to need for five years or longer.
Saving money...spending less than one earns and investing the difference is the prudent, low stress & low anxiety route to a comfortable nest egg and secure retirement. Investing in soundly managed cos. (or index funds or ETFs) with a consistent, long track record of "doing the right thing" and meeting objectives for their customers and for their investors is likely to yield "average" returns. It also indicates a sensible co. culture that will endure the ups and downs of market behavior and the occasional lousy manager or management decision...lousy will be balanced by the occasional outstanding manager. That is a sensible expectation.
Remember there is no magic bullet, there is no "hot tip"
David Henry (Concord)
Of course, many of the beneficiaries of this rise will never thank President Obama.

Bet the rent.
JW (New York)
Of course, if the market had tanked instead you'd be blaming it all on Trump.
Joel A. Levitt (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
Don't waste your blame on Trump now. You'll have plenty of opportunity in the next year or two.
SteveRR (CA)
I am trying to think of one thing Obama did to make business life easier and more productive over eight years - coming up blank here.