While Mr. Trump is apparently well-versed in the 'art' of hard-nosed negotiations with bankers, he'll be fit-to-be-tied with Congressional gridlock and political back-stabbing. But, it'll be the public perception of conflicts of interest and violations of 'blind trust' administration protocols that will be an ongoing irritant and even potential downfall of (incoming) President Trump.
5
I wonder how much those private contractors awarded those (maybe) infrastructure projects will be paying their laborers and what labor benefits will look like. Should we be encouraging our kids to go out and put themselves in debt in a vocational or college program just to find out in the end they will make not quite enough to pay their student debt?
5
Here's another tradeoff that doesn't get much press: What's good for real estate and the banking industry is bad for manufacturing.
How, you might ask? Because you have to pay your workers enough to house themselves, and those same workers have to compete with workers elsewhere who can house themselves for less.
Trump's main business is real estate. If he is as leveraged as some suspect, prices must go up to cover his future obligations. Even if he's not that leveraged, he makes much more when prices go up. And when he hands his business of to someone else while he's president, he will still know what's good for it and what isn't.
What do you think are the chances are that he's going to put the interests of manufacturing ahead of his family's fortune?
How, you might ask? Because you have to pay your workers enough to house themselves, and those same workers have to compete with workers elsewhere who can house themselves for less.
Trump's main business is real estate. If he is as leveraged as some suspect, prices must go up to cover his future obligations. Even if he's not that leveraged, he makes much more when prices go up. And when he hands his business of to someone else while he's president, he will still know what's good for it and what isn't.
What do you think are the chances are that he's going to put the interests of manufacturing ahead of his family's fortune?
8
what is behind the value of these currencies? a government's promise?
1
Do you really think trump and the motley crew he will have have a clue about trade or currencies.
5
Good People, The Con Don is not President yet. The Electoral College voters have not finalized their votes yet. Here is a link to an excellent article regarding how they can find their courage and true love for America and prevent the catastrophe-in-waiting we face. There is a link in the article that lists GOP EC voters in each the states that matter. Please Good People, do the right thing and contact these decision makers. America and OUR democracy count on it. Thank You.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/president-trump-isnt-a-done-deal-ele...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/president-trump-isnt-a-done-deal-ele...
"Lack of a policy background"?
You mean, like the freshman senator who spent 8 years bashing businesspeople, over-regulating the economy and wondered why the economy wouldn't grow?
I hope the "secular stagnation" narrative doesn't fall apart too hard when the economy starts growing again.
You mean, like the freshman senator who spent 8 years bashing businesspeople, over-regulating the economy and wondered why the economy wouldn't grow?
I hope the "secular stagnation" narrative doesn't fall apart too hard when the economy starts growing again.
3
Nice try but big business did just fine under the Obama administration. You can blame Republican obstruction for the lack of growth and business leaders and economists all over the world said the same exact thing.
I'll bet money that you can't name three of those regulations.
I'll bet money that you can't name three of those regulations.
7
Let's not rewrite history (as has been the case a good part of Trump's campaign)
The GOP refused to support the stimulus plan that our President submitted
Instead the cut it down to nothing and refused to work with him(do we remember Mitch McConnel's statement when he was inaugurated ?)
And btw taxes on the rich and business have never been so low due to rates, loopholes and offshore stockpiling
The GOP refused to support the stimulus plan that our President submitted
Instead the cut it down to nothing and refused to work with him(do we remember Mitch McConnel's statement when he was inaugurated ?)
And btw taxes on the rich and business have never been so low due to rates, loopholes and offshore stockpiling
7
Trump people who were bamboozeled into thinking their jobs were coming back based on trumps promises, when they wake up in 18 months and see no movement towards jobs coming their way maybe then they will get it.
I don't hold out much hope for them.
Sad he conned you too.
And you don't have to pay your income taxes, just like him too.
I don't hold out much hope for them.
Sad he conned you too.
And you don't have to pay your income taxes, just like him too.
15
Sad too, that I don't hold out much hope for us, till then. Then the hope for us can start.
And can America expect Trump to slog through these "little conflicts" in a way that will benefit America. It's an awful lot to ask.
7
I don't think Pres-elect Trump will find out soon that "Make America Great Again" is just a slogan, not an answer. He knew that all along. It's the folks who voted for him who are in for the rude awakening.
"What? How could this be happening? I liked his TV show so much!"
Exactly.
"What? How could this be happening? I liked his TV show so much!"
Exactly.
19
I am very confident President elect Trump was the only hope for jobs for the devastated workers of the Rust Belt. And apparently many other people have agreed with me. Since Biden and Edwards campaigned on bringing manufacturing jobs back to that area (it was all lies), at least Trump will try to do it . Focusing on the infrastructure with construction will certainly be an opportunity. Now if the hateful socialistic left, protesters, and others would let him organize and do his job after inauguration that would be a great start for America. Trump gets things done; he is a doer and achiever not a "lip service" person.
2
I am very confident your confidence will not translate into the success you hoped for.
3
Really?
C'mon do actually believe that his GOP compadres are going to support a trillion dollar infrastructure plan?
Do you really bribe that manufacturers will opt for American workers when their rakers are global and currency and trade deficit s will eat into their margins?
Christ get these out of work people into job programs that yake them forward - technology, communication s, medicine etc
C'mon do actually believe that his GOP compadres are going to support a trillion dollar infrastructure plan?
Do you really bribe that manufacturers will opt for American workers when their rakers are global and currency and trade deficit s will eat into their margins?
Christ get these out of work people into job programs that yake them forward - technology, communication s, medicine etc
2
Your back to that fundamental rule of life. You cannot gain one value without sacrificing another. Trump's alleged economic policies at least as described on the campaign trail were incoherent and many of them are never going to happen because they fly in the face of reality. One thing you be absolutely certain of is that the promised war on free trade and the bringing jobs back of manufacturing jobs to the rust belt will never materialize.
15
So what types of jobs will flourish in the red states that voted for Trump ? The types of jobs that Trump is familiar with creating in the short run. Casinos. Yes, he will create jobs by pushing for changes in federal law that encourage the opening of casinos, such as requiring a high percentage of the casino revenue in each state to go towards funding health care subsidies for low income people who make too much money to qualify for Medicaid. And then he will push for federal law making Medicaid mandatory but changing federal support into a block grant that could be spent by the state to encourage the growth of casinos ! Before long, we will have casinos in every Congressional district, and the market will become oversaturated. But that is OK by Trump, for by then he will be out of office. Better subsidized health care, brought to you by casinos, and more money for Medicaid to pay for health care for the increasing number of gambling addicts who have lost their jobs because of the gambling !
7
Mr. Irwin, you give Donald Trump too much credit. He was not a businessman in the true sense of the word, just a snake-oil salesman, modeled on P. T. Barnum. He ran a whole-owned family business, and like a dictatorship. mThere wasn't a Board or any Shareholders to answer to. Just that fat old guy in the mirror.
And yes, the Renmimbi and the Peso have both dropped since the election, and China's currency has been weakening for the past 18 months. To a certain extent, the cause was the surging dollar, especially since the Brexit vote. So, that means that wealthy people in China, for instance, need to put their money into dollars--Buy something--in order to retain the asset value. Also, our Exports will just price themselves out of foreign markets price range.
Lastly, the rising dollar, and the weakening foreign economies, are what had been deterring the Fed from raising rates earlier. Higher rates would just attract foreign money flows, away from the economies that need that cash much mor4e than we do.
https://thetruthoncommonsense.com
And yes, the Renmimbi and the Peso have both dropped since the election, and China's currency has been weakening for the past 18 months. To a certain extent, the cause was the surging dollar, especially since the Brexit vote. So, that means that wealthy people in China, for instance, need to put their money into dollars--Buy something--in order to retain the asset value. Also, our Exports will just price themselves out of foreign markets price range.
Lastly, the rising dollar, and the weakening foreign economies, are what had been deterring the Fed from raising rates earlier. Higher rates would just attract foreign money flows, away from the economies that need that cash much mor4e than we do.
https://thetruthoncommonsense.com
8
The dollar is not going up against all currencies, the dollar is down against the yen. That should help us to sell more goods and services to Japan, reducing our trade deficit. The reason for the yen's rise is not higher interest rates in Japan, to the contrary Japan has much lower interest rates than there are in the USA. Japan has had 20 years of stimulous including fiscal spending on infrastructure and yet that has not caused inflation. Higher interest rates don't always result in currency increases and higher deficit spending does not always result in inflation.
2
Sorry to disappoint you, but the dollar is up 4.5% against the yen since the election...
6
Why can't NYT write or end an article without the passive aggression towards Trump? He mocks you for this very reason, non bias media does the same, and you won't even show him that you're better than what he says you are? Come on. I also love the bias comments. It's sad that the overzealous leftist media show up more in the google news results than others. I guess there's more money to be had in mocking Trump.
1
Just economics of running up deficits by cutting taxes and increasing spending. It's not a New York Times conspiracy. Alternatively he could just do the infrastructure and let taxes remain where they are. He'd get a boost for economy and workers and crazy as it sounds could do some help for the environment. Oh forgot we are talking about Trump the guy who knows debt but not climate change.
9
Why are you so thin skinned about this Chris? Passive aggression? Do you mean as compared to his disruptive and mean spirited aggession?. I see no aggresion in this explainer of the complexity of the way the world works. I suggest it is your bias at work not the NYT. Seems you have totally bought into Trumps description of common decency as political correctness
16
The NYT's writers aren't obliged to seek approval from Donald Trump or readers like yourself. Their commitment to it's readers is to write objectively; it's only your opinion that the NYT is biased. I'm grateful to this publication for it's excellent journalism.
11
Mr. Trump doesn't seem to be the type of man who will roll up his sleeves and get dirty with examining economic outcomes based on his policy options. He'll get his son-in-law Jerrod to pick the options and perhaps pick-up his phone and call his BFF Vlad Putin (Ph.D Economics) for his 'trusted' opinion.
The contradictory policy statements made during the campaign were tailored to fish for votes. Few voters likely understand the policy implications. Who cares? Whatever works to gather the fish is good for business. Mr. Trump's team used a fish trawler with ground scraping nets to win the Oval Office. Now that "we won, and you lost" is the Green Light that replaced campaign rhetoric and gas-lighting.
After the honeymoon period subsides we will experience a 'smoke and mirrors' post-election campaign. The legitimate media will be blamed, somehow, for screwing up Trump Economic Policies. The claims will articulate a new conspiracy theory wherein the news media had sponsored "false, misleading and biased information" that spooked investors and markets.
The Trump team will be claiming that the media are Clinton acolytes hoping for a return of the establishment and D.C. lobby swamp.
In other words, we may likely see a 'smoke and mirrors' fall-back plan if things go south. But if the world unfolds as it should, smoke eventually clears and the mirrors reflect the truth.
The contradictory policy statements made during the campaign were tailored to fish for votes. Few voters likely understand the policy implications. Who cares? Whatever works to gather the fish is good for business. Mr. Trump's team used a fish trawler with ground scraping nets to win the Oval Office. Now that "we won, and you lost" is the Green Light that replaced campaign rhetoric and gas-lighting.
After the honeymoon period subsides we will experience a 'smoke and mirrors' post-election campaign. The legitimate media will be blamed, somehow, for screwing up Trump Economic Policies. The claims will articulate a new conspiracy theory wherein the news media had sponsored "false, misleading and biased information" that spooked investors and markets.
The Trump team will be claiming that the media are Clinton acolytes hoping for a return of the establishment and D.C. lobby swamp.
In other words, we may likely see a 'smoke and mirrors' fall-back plan if things go south. But if the world unfolds as it should, smoke eventually clears and the mirrors reflect the truth.
21
A higher dollar makes American exports less great if (1) it is made with 100% local components, and (2) if it's replaceable with similar products made elsewhere. This is far from the reality.
Gains made by a devaluing country may also end up with purchases of more American products.
In other words, it's way too simplistic to argue that a higher dollar will bring about a worsening of the trade deficit.
If higher rates of interests ensue, this could well end the rush on the speculative branch of the financial sector. This sector must be acknowledged as one of the least productive and most damaging contraptions of the economy. It is largely responsible for the groundswell of discontent. Through the 'stockholder value' imperative it has undermined workers' wellbeing, an enabler in the maldistribution of wealth, subverting even democracy itself.
Gains made by a devaluing country may also end up with purchases of more American products.
In other words, it's way too simplistic to argue that a higher dollar will bring about a worsening of the trade deficit.
If higher rates of interests ensue, this could well end the rush on the speculative branch of the financial sector. This sector must be acknowledged as one of the least productive and most damaging contraptions of the economy. It is largely responsible for the groundswell of discontent. Through the 'stockholder value' imperative it has undermined workers' wellbeing, an enabler in the maldistribution of wealth, subverting even democracy itself.
3
Don't worry about it. It's all going to be so great.
14
...again.
1
Who needs a president, a flip of the coin on issues like these is probably just as likely to come up with the right choice .... even if there were one.
4
Didn't the libertarian leaning conservatives warn us about how difficult it will be in the future with the bailouts, quantitative easing , and low Interest rates?
sounds so terrible that the dollar will buy more than a mc chicken.
Detroit doesn't seem better off with all of the bailouts it got. Nestle is doing pretty well considering the water prices in Detroit and flint
Neoliberalism at its finest
sounds so terrible that the dollar will buy more than a mc chicken.
Detroit doesn't seem better off with all of the bailouts it got. Nestle is doing pretty well considering the water prices in Detroit and flint
Neoliberalism at its finest
1
But Trump can easily weaken the US dollar--he can threaten to offer pennies on the dollar for the US debt. Then he lowers the US debt and weakens the dollar. Just as Argentina has done a few time! Voila! (sarcasm)
6
Whoever runs in 2020, his/her campaign slogan should be "Make America Smart Again." Trump's economic policy will set us back 60 years. It's unfortunate that most of us who didn't vote for him will endure this madness.
26
That's why I don't like the comparisons many people make between Trump and Hitler.
Hitler was a man with a plan: Germany was already an industrial superpower before WWI, it already had an industrial park ready to go on if the Versailles treaty was voided. He had full support of the German industrial elite (and many American industrials). The German people was enraged - with reason - with Western powers because of the absurd Versailles treaty.
Trump doesn't have the support of the American elite, and he doesn't have a sound economic plan.
Hitler was a man with a plan: Germany was already an industrial superpower before WWI, it already had an industrial park ready to go on if the Versailles treaty was voided. He had full support of the German industrial elite (and many American industrials). The German people was enraged - with reason - with Western powers because of the absurd Versailles treaty.
Trump doesn't have the support of the American elite, and he doesn't have a sound economic plan.
9
Excellent article. Maybe the Donald should read this piece. But, most likely not. The Donald knows better than anyone on this planet Earth. He thinks he is a god.
6
He certainly s god awful
4
I say this in jest but with an element of truth behind it: Perhaps Mr. Trump plans to tweet his way out an economic inconvenience?
6
Hilarious. New devotion to honesty? NYT is even more deceitful than ever.
Well the stronger dollar makes us all richer; imports are cheaper and domestic products must compete. It also allows for more fiscal stimulus and lower interest rates.
But here's the point; on day one, the stock market collapse was a Trumpian disaster. Now financial boom is a Trumpian disaster.
Hah.
Well the stronger dollar makes us all richer; imports are cheaper and domestic products must compete. It also allows for more fiscal stimulus and lower interest rates.
But here's the point; on day one, the stock market collapse was a Trumpian disaster. Now financial boom is a Trumpian disaster.
Hah.
1
Fascinating. Tell me exactly which domestic products are going to be competing with all of the stuff made in China and how exactly they will accomplish this? You can start by naming three of those products.
3
DT has campaigned in poison, he will govern in poppycock. I will miss the poetry and prose.
5
And thus, we'll endure doggerel;)
2
How many times have we seen this movie before? The plot is always the same: lower taxes on the rich, deregulate, and the rich get richer and the middle class declines and society suffers from neglect. Oh, and we simply cannot spend any tax money on society and 99% of the people, because this will raise the deficit. Never mind that it is okay to have tax cuts, cronyism, corporate welfare, and wars that raise the deficit. This movie has been playing since the Reagan years.
Trump's possible trade war is another twist on the plot, but will probably lead to the same ending, where the rich get richer while the rest of us get poorer, society crumbles physically and socially, and the planet burns.
Why of all groups, do working class people--who always end up in a lose-lose economic situation--keep going back to see this movie again and again and vote it tops on their list?
Something about doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result each time.
We need more articles like this that take us through the pros, cons, and consequences.
Trump's possible trade war is another twist on the plot, but will probably lead to the same ending, where the rich get richer while the rest of us get poorer, society crumbles physically and socially, and the planet burns.
Why of all groups, do working class people--who always end up in a lose-lose economic situation--keep going back to see this movie again and again and vote it tops on their list?
Something about doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result each time.
We need more articles like this that take us through the pros, cons, and consequences.
27
To truly address what's ailing with the American worker, one must listen to them: they need more money, pure and simple.
All those tax breaks to the wealthy since Reagan haven't produced the jobs that were promised...trickle-down failed.
As an American business you don't need to sell as much overseas with a higher value dollar, if your own citizens can afford to buy your products.
The answer?
Redistribution...amid cries of "tax and spend Democrat" and "socialist" the answer is exactly opposite of what Donald Trump and the rest of the Republican party wants.
A return to the tax rates of post-WWII would provide the money to retrain workers for modern jobs, invest in new manufacturing here in the U.S., employ "working class" workers in big jobs programs that would fix the nation's infrastructure, and provide much more in the way of loanable money to small business people to develop their own businesses that would serve American citizens who - under such a scheme - would have greater disposable incomes as their taxes go down.
Henry Ford was smart enough to realize he needed to ensure that his own employees could afford to buy his products...a lesson the wealthy and the Republicans need to learn.
All those tax breaks to the wealthy since Reagan haven't produced the jobs that were promised...trickle-down failed.
As an American business you don't need to sell as much overseas with a higher value dollar, if your own citizens can afford to buy your products.
The answer?
Redistribution...amid cries of "tax and spend Democrat" and "socialist" the answer is exactly opposite of what Donald Trump and the rest of the Republican party wants.
A return to the tax rates of post-WWII would provide the money to retrain workers for modern jobs, invest in new manufacturing here in the U.S., employ "working class" workers in big jobs programs that would fix the nation's infrastructure, and provide much more in the way of loanable money to small business people to develop their own businesses that would serve American citizens who - under such a scheme - would have greater disposable incomes as their taxes go down.
Henry Ford was smart enough to realize he needed to ensure that his own employees could afford to buy his products...a lesson the wealthy and the Republicans need to learn.
33
I agree but good luck with that with republicans in control.
3
There is a more ominous reason for the Dollars rise. The dollar is the worlds reserve currency. The dollar is weak during the expansion when projects are being funded and asset bubbles expanding. When bubbles burst some of these dollars have to be written off as bad debt. This causes dollar liquidity to fall and the remaining dollars become more valuable. The dollar rising means an asset bubble bursting somewhere in the world whether it was the Peso crisis of 1994, LTCM collapse, Rouble crisis, Asian flu, dotcom collapse or the great recession, the dollar always rises and all other assets fall in tandem. We will soon know why the dollar has started climbing again and it may have nothing to do with Trump.
1
If it has nothing to do with Trump it will come as a surprise to him nas surely as the universe revolves around him
1
Members of my extended family assume that because Trump is rich he is smart, if not genius-level intelligent. That, and a visceral hatred for Hillary (actually more the latter than the former) is the reason they voted for him. I feel truly sorry for them. And I will feel that way with a smile on my face as I take advantage of my immediate family's offer of asylum in Europe while Trump dismantles the once-, and now-, but soon-not-to-be-great United States.
19
That is called the halo effect and why so many Americans make such bad investment decisions. They don't distinguish between a person's success and what that implies about the span of his or her knowledge.
7
Look, no matter what Trump does on any issue, he will declare that it was great and his minions will all agree. The Truth went to Trumpland during the campaign and died there. At the end of the next four years there will be Trump's lies foisted on a disbelieving public by his apparatchiks. Anyone who disagrees will be un-American. The internment camps will be ready.
27
You are correct. Look no further than Mitt Romney here is Massachusetts. He accomplished nothing as governor, but his supporters continued to swear by him, and he spoke as if he'd cured cancer. Trump will be a total disaster for the next four years but, like Bush when he was reelected, he's got about 60MM people who voted for him and won't want to admit they were wrong, and the right wing machine will again have the democratic candidate made out to be the antichrist.
10
This article from the Business section(trump's biggest test: can he build something that inspires awe) lists 10 shovel ready projects at a cost of $230 billion. Trump is proposing 1 trillion over 10 years. I'd say build those 10 and a thousand more and spend 1 trillion every on rebuilding infrastructure and subsidizing industries that have moved offshore. Get Americans good paying jobs with paid health insurance and pensions and we'll quickly see their anger alleviated. The article cited how New Deal programs led by an engaged president made America great. If we want to make America great again, there's a blueprint and a playbook. The question is whether Trump keeps his promise. So, Republicans, who do you really care about? The masses of America or the 1%.
6
The last time the Republicans had control over all three branches of the US government, we had an economic meltdown in 2007. The time before that, total Republican control resulted in the Depression. Looks like as a blanket power, their policies consistently become destructive to the economy. I am wary of what will follow this recent election.
33
It seems Mr. Trump is in for quite the education. Unfortunately he seems not to have the capacity or the desire to learn. Maybe he can come up with a bunch more slogans to navigate his way through serious issues like those examples in this piece .
19
Personally, I think 1 of the most glaring contradictions that is never talked about is automation. It's a myth that American manufacturing has decreased. In terms of productivity we're higher than we've ever been. Even if we renegotiate NAFTA and spend trillions of dollars on direct government intervention it doesn't prevent the problem that machines can do most of the simple manufacturer work. That won't change regardless of what we do. No person is better than a machine.
Certainly NAFTA hit the Rust Belt hardest but those jobs are gone and they aren't coming back. The only way forward is through a more rigorous safety net that guarantees health benefits for all citizens, a stipend for displaced workers, education and advanced manufacturing education, free education at every level, a stipend for child care, and paid maternity and paternity leave. Instead I fully expect to get the Paul Ryan treatment privatize Social Security and Medicare, lower taxes for the wealthiest and corporations, and maybe a week infrastructure spending bill. Of course, after that happens the deficit hawks won't allow any more fiscal stimulus so expect cuts which will hurt the economy even more.
Certainly NAFTA hit the Rust Belt hardest but those jobs are gone and they aren't coming back. The only way forward is through a more rigorous safety net that guarantees health benefits for all citizens, a stipend for displaced workers, education and advanced manufacturing education, free education at every level, a stipend for child care, and paid maternity and paternity leave. Instead I fully expect to get the Paul Ryan treatment privatize Social Security and Medicare, lower taxes for the wealthiest and corporations, and maybe a week infrastructure spending bill. Of course, after that happens the deficit hawks won't allow any more fiscal stimulus so expect cuts which will hurt the economy even more.
54
"free education at every level, a stipend for child care, and paid maternity and paternity leave."
This would encourage families to have more children, something that would be a disaster in an already overpopulated world where automation is increasingly reducing the number of available jobs. Perhaps we should do as the military does and limit benefits to only two children per family.
This would encourage families to have more children, something that would be a disaster in an already overpopulated world where automation is increasingly reducing the number of available jobs. Perhaps we should do as the military does and limit benefits to only two children per family.
3
You make a good point. I heard a story a few weeks ago about 3rd world sweatshops using automation. Even people who earn miniscule wages are starting to lose their jobs.
1
Charles W. - That's not necessarily true, studies show that better educated people tend to have fewer children. There are good examples of this all over the world.
I'm no whiz at economics, but I can see Trump's plans to build infrastructure and increase military spending along with providing tax cuts for mainly the wealthy will result in a soaring deficit, and isn't that what Trump and Republicans love to bemoan? I'll be laughing as they try to explain why the higher deficits to come are not such a bad thing when they are in charge. (Remember Bush's tactic of not putting Afghanistan and Iraq wars on the tab?) Republican deceit, it's a mind bender.
52
Actually they will point to a rising deficit as an excuse to reduce spending by cutting Medicare and Medicaid. Paul Ryan will use a rising deficit to sell his Medicare "voucher" plan.
The deficit will be blamed on entitlements...not tax cuts and spending on the military.
As Dick Cheney said, "deficits don't matter" especially when you want to use them as an excuse to slash social programs.
The deficit will be blamed on entitlements...not tax cuts and spending on the military.
As Dick Cheney said, "deficits don't matter" especially when you want to use them as an excuse to slash social programs.
17
They never do. Deficits NEVER mind to Republicans when they re in charge, NEVER
11
This is a mess! Economic growth after years of easy money, and near zero interest rates, while the other major economies of the world have been engaged in competitive devaluations, and perma austerity measures, means a much higher dollar, which is of course deflationary.
After seven years of QE the banks still need capital, and they can't make money at depository lending because rates are so chronically low. So where did the monetary stimulus go?
There is right now a dollar shortage for emerging economies, and somehow someone must figure out how to fix the financial system before it implodes from the strains. The last eight years of executive non feasance, combined with Congressional legislative dithering have turned this world's economy into a beached whale, which is dying from its own weight, with no ability to move in any direction.
The attempts by the Fed to revive the economy by QE in the context of cheap money, while banking and derivatives remained misregulated, was criminally insane.
I wish I could think of a way to fix this mess without a depression, but I can't. Obama and the boys on "The Hill" should thank their lucky stars that the American people have no idea how what was done to them has been done to them, or what to do about it, because such knowledge is the stuff of revolutions, and the doyens of the status quo don't come out of revolutions particularly intact.
After seven years of QE the banks still need capital, and they can't make money at depository lending because rates are so chronically low. So where did the monetary stimulus go?
There is right now a dollar shortage for emerging economies, and somehow someone must figure out how to fix the financial system before it implodes from the strains. The last eight years of executive non feasance, combined with Congressional legislative dithering have turned this world's economy into a beached whale, which is dying from its own weight, with no ability to move in any direction.
The attempts by the Fed to revive the economy by QE in the context of cheap money, while banking and derivatives remained misregulated, was criminally insane.
I wish I could think of a way to fix this mess without a depression, but I can't. Obama and the boys on "The Hill" should thank their lucky stars that the American people have no idea how what was done to them has been done to them, or what to do about it, because such knowledge is the stuff of revolutions, and the doyens of the status quo don't come out of revolutions particularly intact.
3
Buy yourself a king sized air mattress. Stuff it with hundred dollar bills. You'll sleep well at night and the 'benjamins' will increase in value for the fact that they're benjamins!
I suppose the Great Trumpster will just fire those advisors and place tariffs on those foreign goods coming from currency manipulators.
Then again, he has so far promised to give people jobs in those Rust Belt states by building infrastructure, not by encouraging new investment in potential exporters. It will be the sad reality that, instead of improving the conditions in the interior states, he will just add the successful coastal economies to the chain of misery by making the trade situation even worse.
Perhaps Sarah Palin can help him with his grasp of economics and possibly with understanding Russia.
Then again, he has so far promised to give people jobs in those Rust Belt states by building infrastructure, not by encouraging new investment in potential exporters. It will be the sad reality that, instead of improving the conditions in the interior states, he will just add the successful coastal economies to the chain of misery by making the trade situation even worse.
Perhaps Sarah Palin can help him with his grasp of economics and possibly with understanding Russia.
18
Donald Trump has scarcely thought through any 'policies' in detail, much less parsed out the likely consequences of the many often inconsistent bumpersticker-ready right wing homilies he has been spouting for the past year or so.
This is the man who shoots first, thinks a bit later - with his generously proportioned gut, he says - and always leaves others to pick up the pieces if and when his latest grand scheme rams into a brick wall or swirls down the drain.
In private business, his employees, investors, contractors, vendors and lenders were left holding the bag.
In the White House, the mess will be left to the 330 million citizens of a once prosperous and decent nation, and to our nation's precious, irreplaceable land, air and water -- with ripple effects throughout the globe.
Let the games begin!
This is the man who shoots first, thinks a bit later - with his generously proportioned gut, he says - and always leaves others to pick up the pieces if and when his latest grand scheme rams into a brick wall or swirls down the drain.
In private business, his employees, investors, contractors, vendors and lenders were left holding the bag.
In the White House, the mess will be left to the 330 million citizens of a once prosperous and decent nation, and to our nation's precious, irreplaceable land, air and water -- with ripple effects throughout the globe.
Let the games begin!
25
Chambolle: unfortunately your predictions will probably come true with this president and the people who voted for him will still support him because he will be giving them what they want even more: racism, misogyny, and xenophobia. He ran on those "principles" and and promised that nobody will have to curb these feelings anymore. Interesting that he's bringing in so many "establishment" types and no complaints because his Sessions and Bannon and other appointments will keep racial and religious munorities in line. They won't get jobs, but never mind!
1
My fear is that Trump is not intelligent enough to understand the economics, stupid. So, we may all have to suffer his foolish mistakes.
Perhaps the Democrats will benefit in the long run, in the coming elections, but we may all suffer from Trump's confusion, along the way.
Perhaps the Democrats will benefit in the long run, in the coming elections, but we may all suffer from Trump's confusion, along the way.
28
Yes, my sense is that Donald J. has a learning disability, LD, which prevents him from thinking deeply and with reason. If so, we will have to figure out how to cope with this for the next 4 years.
In 1820, Thomas Jefferson said:
"I know no safe depository of the ultimate powers of the society but the people themselves; and if we think them not enlightened enough to exercise their control with a wholesome discretion, the remedy is not to take it from them, but to inform their discretion by education."
In 1820, Thomas Jefferson said:
"I know no safe depository of the ultimate powers of the society but the people themselves; and if we think them not enlightened enough to exercise their control with a wholesome discretion, the remedy is not to take it from them, but to inform their discretion by education."
23
Democratic organizations, concerned about Trump's cluelessness in the economy, stupid, might try to post videos to explain ECONOMIC WISDOM.
Perhaps, with endless repetition, common sense economic decisions can be made, before we meet disaster with the economy
Perhaps, with endless repetition, common sense economic decisions can be made, before we meet disaster with the economy
3
Then there are a handful of us who plan to leave the country and live abroad in the near future. For that, the strong dollar is way cool...
15
If you can sell your house in a depressed economy..
3
skier - A Trump win was unthinkable to me but just to be on the safe side I did sell my house just before the election.
1
For Farmers in the Midwest and those that are engaged in supporting industries, it is a fact that the price of corn and soybeans is directly related to the value of the dollar. When the value of the dollar goes up, the price of corn and soybeans goes down. It is also true that farmers in the Midwest and those who are engaged in supporting industries depend on free trade. If Trump raises the value of the dollar and applies tariff's or other trade restrictions, the farmers in the Midwest and the supporting industries will suffer a very significant income reversal. Or put another way, if Trump does just half of what he says, there is no way he will ever win Iowa again.
23
Why did Iowa not figure out that the con was on before they voted? Same with the vanishing wall on our border with Mexico.
5
woodlawner - I know some Iowans, they are very nice people, so nice that it's hard for them to recognize evil when they see it. They also seem to see things bathed in shiny, white light, white as in their preferred skin color, it's not that they feel animosity towards people of color, many people simply don't see them in any meaningful way. Any wealthy white guy in a suit who tells them what they want to hear is who they'll follow.
1
With a stronger dollar and the sort of infrastructure plan that could be pushed through Congress (no new spending UNTIL there is a rise in tax revenues), there's no risk of ” The Treasury Secretary, who is in charge of the currency, responds, “It’s a necessary evil, Mr. President; our economy is booming so much that global investors just can’t get enough of United States assets.” " The dollar WILL stay strong, but very few sectors of the economy boom under such conditions. The word is 'deflation' and the reality is nasty.
6
Congress is planning om cutting taxes as far as they can get away with
4
It would have been helpful for the NYT to run some articles on the likely consequences of the candidate's relative economic policies before the election instead of obsessing over irrelevant, inconsequential, nonsense like email servers. It's a little late now.
62
They did.
5
The problem isn't so much that they didn't run articles about the candidates proposals - they did. It's that they ran many times more articles about email and racist remarks.
I'm honestly not sure how you combat that beyond simply refusing to report on what Trump said today or on the "newest" email "scandal". I suppose they could go with a slogan like "All the news you need to know." But, that will get reflexive calls of "bias" (from both parties) and "liberal elite" (from one particular party).
Of course, those calls seem to come regardless, so maybe they should just own it.
I'm honestly not sure how you combat that beyond simply refusing to report on what Trump said today or on the "newest" email "scandal". I suppose they could go with a slogan like "All the news you need to know." But, that will get reflexive calls of "bias" (from both parties) and "liberal elite" (from one particular party).
Of course, those calls seem to come regardless, so maybe they should just own it.
1
With his family at his side, he may not learn much economics, but they are going to make contacts to insure their private business success and they are going to exploit them. They all know THAT much about their own economics. Personal wealth and power has motivated Mr. Trump, and his apples all lie under the tree. He has a fairly short term horizon - up to 4 years - he certainly isn't going to learn much, but he will follow those who tell him that what benefits him benefits the country. I so hope that he does better than I expect. He IS pretty amazing: someone so one-sided that even his wealth and all the choices it brings doesn't seem to have elicited any interest in the rest of the world.
12
Notice that nobody talks much about Putin's wealth either.
1
Those who voted for Mrs Clinton, can now sit back and await the shrieks and howls from Trump's 'poorly educated' as they feel his tiny fingers pick their pockets. The strengthening dollar and tariffs, repeal of Federal minimum wage requirements, combined with elimination of 'Obamacare' - the section that gave States money to expand their medicaid programs - will result in inflation and lower standard of living for his supporters. All the while, the Trump family, friends and top 10% will enjoy significantly greater cash flow by way of Trump's proposed income tax changes.
The Founding Fathers were quite fearful of direct election of President. . .it took 240 years to proves their fear as well founded.
The Founding Fathers were quite fearful of direct election of President. . .it took 240 years to proves their fear as well founded.
29
Except, of course, that we don't have direct election of the President. If we had, her name would be Hillary.
7
Yeah, it's amazing how the Republicans have convinced their voters to vote for them against their self interest. Probably because the Democrats haven't been that much better for them and Donald Trump is seemingly a new kind of Republican but improvement is difficult and takes time and the electorate does not appear to be patient anymore.
Jim Jamison ...
"The Founding Fathers were quite fearful of direct election of President. . .it took 240 years to proves their fear as well founded. " Actually, had there been direct election of the President, there would have been a President Gore in 2000 and a President Clinton in 2016.
"The Founding Fathers were quite fearful of direct election of President. . .it took 240 years to proves their fear as well founded. " Actually, had there been direct election of the President, there would have been a President Gore in 2000 and a President Clinton in 2016.
5
Trump is going to be surprised that economic policy is so complicated. It's okay, the actual decisions will be made by his son-in-law.
23
Hasn't the son in law been presiding over a failing business?
4
Why would a global manufacturer pay $25/hour in one country, when they can get the same job done for $5/hour elsewhere? Trump's claim would be credible if he had told the blue collar workers that, hey! you guys need to go back to technical school; learn to use a computer and get trained to do more complex manufacturing processes. His plan is for the 70s and 80s. In order to be competitive in today's economy, you cannot simply renegotiate deals with guns, you have to train your workforce. Unless of course, you want to start a war (which is our main industry anyway).
65
Trump's revolution is more cultural than economic. Abortion. Immigration. His economic policy is to cut government spending and cut corporate taxes. However that affects the worlds economy is for economists to argue over, and there's no wrong answers, (or right answers), there is only vogueing, selfie-aggrandizement, posturing, demagoguery, making faces, and flipping people off. Corporations should like Trump's tax cuts, and maybe invest in the USA. (Insert bird-flipping emoji here).
9
Much truth in your observations, Phil.
However, US corporate tax rates have been the highest on the planet for over 30 years, while all other industrialized nations (OECD members) have steadily reduced their corporate rates, over the last 15 years.
This is THE principal reason for job loss in the US, with the combined hit of evolving computerization, automation, communications and transportation advances over the last 30 years. If the US rate were at 15%, as Trump has proposed (add to that the state tax rates...averaging 4.5%)...we'd be roughly
on par with the UK at 20%, and above Ireland (and a bunch of others) at 12.5%.
Companies are the engine of job creation...we need to incent multinationals to invest here, and we need to incent US multinationals to repatriate foreign tax paid earnings, as investment in plant, equipment and jobs.
....harking back to Bill Clinton's first campaign, "It's the Economy, stupid!"
Pity Hillary forgot that.
However, US corporate tax rates have been the highest on the planet for over 30 years, while all other industrialized nations (OECD members) have steadily reduced their corporate rates, over the last 15 years.
This is THE principal reason for job loss in the US, with the combined hit of evolving computerization, automation, communications and transportation advances over the last 30 years. If the US rate were at 15%, as Trump has proposed (add to that the state tax rates...averaging 4.5%)...we'd be roughly
on par with the UK at 20%, and above Ireland (and a bunch of others) at 12.5%.
Companies are the engine of job creation...we need to incent multinationals to invest here, and we need to incent US multinationals to repatriate foreign tax paid earnings, as investment in plant, equipment and jobs.
....harking back to Bill Clinton's first campaign, "It's the Economy, stupid!"
Pity Hillary forgot that.
2
@jljarvis
The effective corporate tax rates are much lower. So try again.
The effective corporate tax rates are much lower. So try again.
28
Hi,
I love when people write about how we have the highest corporate tax rate, but never discuss the effective tax rate which is extremely low and sometimes zero. DT certainly has never paid the higher rates or methinks any tax rate for some time.
As was stated by another poster, it is a fallacy to claim that one can bring back manufacturing jobs at levels we enjoyed in the past. Those jobs simply no longer exist anywhere.
I love when people write about how we have the highest corporate tax rate, but never discuss the effective tax rate which is extremely low and sometimes zero. DT certainly has never paid the higher rates or methinks any tax rate for some time.
As was stated by another poster, it is a fallacy to claim that one can bring back manufacturing jobs at levels we enjoyed in the past. Those jobs simply no longer exist anywhere.
6
Before the elections, many observers, not just Mrs. Clinton, said that Trump was unfit to be president by lack of temperament and by lack of knowledge. He has the attention span of a fire-fly, does not read books or briefing papers, and spends a great deal of time watching television.
It is a-historical to compare him with other presidents, since the contexts in which they lived and worked were different, and of course, he hasn't yet obtained office. Nevertheless, at this time of crisis and decision, we must be guided by the empirical record, including his past statements and behavior both as a private citizen and as a candidate. At best, he would seem comparable to Richard Nixon as an intelligent, opportunistic, yet troubled person. He is likely to surprise and shock people with abrupt reversals of policies and replacement of personnel. As interest rates rise, for example, he might pressure the Federal Reserve to undertake more quantitative easing in order to lower them.
Buckle your seatbelts. We are in for a bumpy ride.
It is a-historical to compare him with other presidents, since the contexts in which they lived and worked were different, and of course, he hasn't yet obtained office. Nevertheless, at this time of crisis and decision, we must be guided by the empirical record, including his past statements and behavior both as a private citizen and as a candidate. At best, he would seem comparable to Richard Nixon as an intelligent, opportunistic, yet troubled person. He is likely to surprise and shock people with abrupt reversals of policies and replacement of personnel. As interest rates rise, for example, he might pressure the Federal Reserve to undertake more quantitative easing in order to lower them.
Buckle your seatbelts. We are in for a bumpy ride.
20
I don't agree with this at all. I am a Democrat. But Nixon was an intelligent and educated man. Wasn't he a lawyer? He had been a member of Congress and Vice President before 1968. He also was responsible for the Clean Air Act. Obviously, there were also a lot of negatives about him. Maybe you could say that Trump is like Nixon without the intelligence, education, or experience.
23
President Nixon was one of our most intelligent presidents. His IQ was about 140. He was an excellent law student and litigator. Don't forget that I said that "at best" Trump might be comparable to Nixon. He is not as intelligent as Nixon. Nixon would immerse himself in position papers, wrote easily, and was the sole author of several books. Unfortunately, Nixon was a troubled soul.
At worst, Trump might be comparable to Franklin Pierce or James Buchanan, notably unsuccessful presidents. Even Warren Harding had some important accomplishments.
At worst, Trump might be comparable to Franklin Pierce or James Buchanan, notably unsuccessful presidents. Even Warren Harding had some important accomplishments.
3
I learned something new today. Discussion about the economy scares away the trolls and Keyboard Kommentators.
35
the Donald hasn't done anything, yet.
it's mere speculation on the wordsmith part. guess he has to earn his paycheck.
it's mere speculation on the wordsmith part. guess he has to earn his paycheck.
2
As does Donald.
Yep but that's part of the problem, the people who need to read this kind of news the most are the ones who aren't paying any attention to it.
1
I keep wondering why the contradiction of his statements about using American factories and his actions (trump clothing and #1 daughter's clothing being made in China, Viet Nam, etc.) don't get much play anymore.
44
There's a heart at the center of his economic policy???
12
Nothing there, neither in the abstract nor actually beating.
6
There are literally billions of forces or inputs that affect the economy. Perhaps the only truism is that if you push the balloon in one place the balloon pops out in some other place. Trump's simplistic economic solutions, particularly those involving trade or finance, make George W. Bush look like an amalgam of the Univ. of Chicago Economics faculty combined with the London School of Economics. We are in for a wild ride with a real fool.
34
Perhaps "President Trump" will dispel the long held myth that only businessman can be an effective president.
In the meantime we can expect an American Berlusconi style president dealing with an American press corps. With so many conflicts of interest there will be fodder for the news. My guess is that the Trump children will launch Trump TV as a propaganda medium just before the inauguration and all of the Trump owned LLC's will get put under the microscope by the rest of the media and it will be called a "witch hunt" and "Unfair".
In addition, all of Trump's policies will get the microscopic treatment and the heat will build daily till President Trump has a massive tantrum and resigns. He still gets to be the ex-President, get the lifetime pension and security detail, as well as all those speakers fees that he condemned the Clintons for accepting.
Then we get President Pence - oh joy! And President Pence gets a Democrat controlled Congress.
Trump supporters who expect a quick solution to all their problems are going to be profoundly disappointed if not violently disappointed. The American Berlusconi will strike but our nation will survive.
Will we learn our lesson? History says we won't.
In the meantime we can expect an American Berlusconi style president dealing with an American press corps. With so many conflicts of interest there will be fodder for the news. My guess is that the Trump children will launch Trump TV as a propaganda medium just before the inauguration and all of the Trump owned LLC's will get put under the microscope by the rest of the media and it will be called a "witch hunt" and "Unfair".
In addition, all of Trump's policies will get the microscopic treatment and the heat will build daily till President Trump has a massive tantrum and resigns. He still gets to be the ex-President, get the lifetime pension and security detail, as well as all those speakers fees that he condemned the Clintons for accepting.
Then we get President Pence - oh joy! And President Pence gets a Democrat controlled Congress.
Trump supporters who expect a quick solution to all their problems are going to be profoundly disappointed if not violently disappointed. The American Berlusconi will strike but our nation will survive.
Will we learn our lesson? History says we won't.
36
It's disheartening that American politics has so many politicians that not only do not know the complexity of the economy, but don't even realize that they don't know.
At least in the past politicians (and I'm talking mostly GOP politicians) would promote a real policy such Trickle-down to rationalize their overall economic direction, as simple-minded as it might be. Unfortunately these days we do not even get that. Today its enough to say "Make America Great Again", or "Drill, baby, drill" and call it deep economic thinking.
Those don't even rise to the level of bad policy - they're slogans. Economy by slogan - we are in a world of hurt.
At least in the past politicians (and I'm talking mostly GOP politicians) would promote a real policy such Trickle-down to rationalize their overall economic direction, as simple-minded as it might be. Unfortunately these days we do not even get that. Today its enough to say "Make America Great Again", or "Drill, baby, drill" and call it deep economic thinking.
Those don't even rise to the level of bad policy - they're slogans. Economy by slogan - we are in a world of hurt.
32
Trump has zero understanding of economic reality. Let's see how many of the Carrier jobs he saves.
73
He can always replace them with all of his products by bringing them here to be produced.
2
Fortunately for all Americans, the actions of Presidents have very little immediate effect, but long term, they can do great good or harm. Let's ask all of the contractors Trump stiffed when he went bankrupt 4, 5 6 times (gosh I've lost count) about this!
67
Did Donald Trump go bankrupt? Or did companies he owned an interest in go bankrupt?
You and I (as taxpayers) owned an interest in GM and it went bankrupt. Does this mean you and I went bankrupt?
You and I (as taxpayers) owned an interest in Chrysler and it went bankrupt. Now it is owned by an Italian company. Does this mean you and I are bankrupt Italians?
The city of Detroit went bankrupt. Does this mean every Detroit citizen went bankrupt? Was the mayor bankrupt?
You and I (as taxpayers) owned an interest in GM and it went bankrupt. Does this mean you and I went bankrupt?
You and I (as taxpayers) owned an interest in Chrysler and it went bankrupt. Now it is owned by an Italian company. Does this mean you and I are bankrupt Italians?
The city of Detroit went bankrupt. Does this mean every Detroit citizen went bankrupt? Was the mayor bankrupt?
4
other people's money.
2
The analogies are hardly apt. First, Mr. Trump directed many of the companies, which by the way bore his name, which ultimately went bankrupt. He wasn't the nth Joe Blow shareholder. Second, according to him, one of his chief characteristics recommending his for office was his business 'acumen' which, as it turns out, consists largely in walking away from his personal, if not legal, obligations.
11
Deregulation and tax cuts. That will be the meat of any substantial legislation that gets passed. Those are the things that allow richer people to get richer. Republicans have at least 2 years all to themselves, and that will be the focus because they know it may not last long. Both will be sold as job-creating acts, and both will result in insane corporate profits.
There will be one or two factories somewhere in red states that happen to re-open, and they will be poster children for Trump accomplishing a campaign promise. Millions who don't see their situation improve will feel as though it has. The market will go up at first, and that will be used as more "proof" that he knows what he's doing. Something will go wrong with faster-moving and less regulated business (think: another market crash or a couple more Flint, MI events) but by then it will be too late and blamed on an obstructive democratic senate.
For the infrastructure - if companies can charge people money and get tax benefits, Trump will try to do it. It circumvents the need for businesses to figure out how to steal government money directly. It also systematically shuts out poor or out-of-work people from ever getting ahead.
There will be one or two factories somewhere in red states that happen to re-open, and they will be poster children for Trump accomplishing a campaign promise. Millions who don't see their situation improve will feel as though it has. The market will go up at first, and that will be used as more "proof" that he knows what he's doing. Something will go wrong with faster-moving and less regulated business (think: another market crash or a couple more Flint, MI events) but by then it will be too late and blamed on an obstructive democratic senate.
For the infrastructure - if companies can charge people money and get tax benefits, Trump will try to do it. It circumvents the need for businesses to figure out how to steal government money directly. It also systematically shuts out poor or out-of-work people from ever getting ahead.
24
More Americans are living in poverty, and others are fearful they will become poverty stricken.
We should stand together to end poverty in America once and for all. These actions will cause the American people to finally see that we are, always have been, and always will be, in the same life boat together.
We must stop the misguided Americans among us from throwing everyone else but themselves overboard.
We have to increase the taxes of those of us with unnecessarily high obscene amounts of individual and corporate wealth, increase taxes in order to create jobs and, as well, in order to eliminate poverty in America, once and for all.
The wealthy among us do not need nor have they actually earned all of the money and wealth they have.
Furthermore, we must develop continuing education for all Americans, the wealthy, and, as well, those with just-enough-money-to-lead-healthy-lives so that we can all finally learn how to responsibly manage money. It is obvious that the many of the wealthy and want-to-be-wealthy among us have not effectively managed money.
It is they who have brought and bring about terrible economic destruction causing pain and heart ache for so very many Americans.
Joblessness and poverty are not healthy for each and every one of our children and grandchildren, and for the future of America as a nation where there is liberty and justice for all.
We should stand together to end poverty in America once and for all. These actions will cause the American people to finally see that we are, always have been, and always will be, in the same life boat together.
We must stop the misguided Americans among us from throwing everyone else but themselves overboard.
We have to increase the taxes of those of us with unnecessarily high obscene amounts of individual and corporate wealth, increase taxes in order to create jobs and, as well, in order to eliminate poverty in America, once and for all.
The wealthy among us do not need nor have they actually earned all of the money and wealth they have.
Furthermore, we must develop continuing education for all Americans, the wealthy, and, as well, those with just-enough-money-to-lead-healthy-lives so that we can all finally learn how to responsibly manage money. It is obvious that the many of the wealthy and want-to-be-wealthy among us have not effectively managed money.
It is they who have brought and bring about terrible economic destruction causing pain and heart ache for so very many Americans.
Joblessness and poverty are not healthy for each and every one of our children and grandchildren, and for the future of America as a nation where there is liberty and justice for all.
12
Which President declared a "war on poverty"?
How long ago was that?
How much have we spent on this war?
What has been the outcome?
How long ago was that?
How much have we spent on this war?
What has been the outcome?
1
The outcome as of now is President Elect Trump who lives in Trump Tower with golden reflecting metal walls, Trump Tower - - a palace for King Midas.
From experiencing Trump's policies and ideas, the people will learn a little bit more about how the unnecessarily and obscenely rich, essentially males, have always, for thousands of years, lived off of them and used them, them the people. pitting the people against one another so that the rich can get unnecessarily richer, obscenely so, without caring one iota about anyone else's plight.
We must continue to learn about how we human animals are destructively aggressive.
From experiencing Trump's policies and ideas, the people will learn a little bit more about how the unnecessarily and obscenely rich, essentially males, have always, for thousands of years, lived off of them and used them, them the people. pitting the people against one another so that the rich can get unnecessarily richer, obscenely so, without caring one iota about anyone else's plight.
We must continue to learn about how we human animals are destructively aggressive.
1
Is he going to spend money on infrastructure projects? Or is he going to allow private companies to develop for profit toll roads and toll bridges. After all, if your definition of something worth doing is something that turns a profit, then why not let businessmen in on the act? Isn't that what gov't run like a business would do?
16
Debbie, my bet is also that he will turn over the infrastructure projects to private equity firms. They will do extremely well, will be quasi-unregulated and held unaccountable for disasters, large and small. Welcome to late-phase capitalism. It's ugly.
63
There are many new commenters speaking up here after Trump's election - that's great. I've also read many comments in publications over the last week that I haven't read before.
Trump supporters, regarding economic issues like the one mentioned here, think there is some sort of magic that is going to happen that will suddenly cause million of factory jobs at high wages to reappear in their communities. Jobs that pay high enough to own a snowmobile, a boat, a pretty new pickup truck, maybe a cabin by the lake - all with just a high school education. It was true in the 1950's, why can't it be true now, they ask, if we can just repeal government regulations and, possibly raise tariffs?
Government regulations were put in place in the 1950's and 1960's to cure very specific problems with air, water, and industrial pollution. Those are the primary cost drivers now. Not what Obama has put in place in the last 8 years.
I'm afraid that these people are going to be very disappointed that the end result Trump promised cannot be delivered, except by massive state intervention in the economy with all the downsides that result.
What is going to be the blow back from that realization? It might make the Trump administration look sane.
Trump supporters, regarding economic issues like the one mentioned here, think there is some sort of magic that is going to happen that will suddenly cause million of factory jobs at high wages to reappear in their communities. Jobs that pay high enough to own a snowmobile, a boat, a pretty new pickup truck, maybe a cabin by the lake - all with just a high school education. It was true in the 1950's, why can't it be true now, they ask, if we can just repeal government regulations and, possibly raise tariffs?
Government regulations were put in place in the 1950's and 1960's to cure very specific problems with air, water, and industrial pollution. Those are the primary cost drivers now. Not what Obama has put in place in the last 8 years.
I'm afraid that these people are going to be very disappointed that the end result Trump promised cannot be delivered, except by massive state intervention in the economy with all the downsides that result.
What is going to be the blow back from that realization? It might make the Trump administration look sane.
48
When things don't turn out like Trump promised, the Republicans will say that what Obama did to ruin our economy was worse than they thought and it's gong to take at least another four years to get things right.
And they'll never tell you, never!- that the Stock Market doubled during the Obama Years and under Obama we lost just over 500,000 jobs over eight years, versus that during George W. Bush's eight years we lost 5,000,000 jobs (yes, that's 5 millioin jobs that were lost during W.'s eight years, with Obama getting practically all of them back.) So, like all those promises Trump had to make to get elected- you remember all that baseless promising, exaggerating, and outright lying he did to his "low information" supporters-well, get ready for some more of it, but this time it'll be on steroids.
And they'll never tell you, never!- that the Stock Market doubled during the Obama Years and under Obama we lost just over 500,000 jobs over eight years, versus that during George W. Bush's eight years we lost 5,000,000 jobs (yes, that's 5 millioin jobs that were lost during W.'s eight years, with Obama getting practically all of them back.) So, like all those promises Trump had to make to get elected- you remember all that baseless promising, exaggerating, and outright lying he did to his "low information" supporters-well, get ready for some more of it, but this time it'll be on steroids.
20
You are puncturing their balloon of expectations. Trump promised to bring back jobs and they lapped it up.
5
Brilliant! Where was the media pushing back all the false promises during the campaign with information like this? They were too consumed telling us how much everyone hates Hillary, over and over and over.
8
It has occurred to me that when Trump talks about spending on infrastructure, he is referring to private sector spending. As in, private sector building for profit, with toll roads and toll bridges. Haven't several states done that already? The American people voted for Trump to be a businessman, and if there's one thing Trump knows how to do, it's monetize stuff. Maybe he's thinking of a way to make Mexico pay us for hiring their citizens, who, after all, send a lot of money back to Mexico. Trump has supposedly made a fortune selling his brand, and I expect that is what he plans to do with America as well. The people he wants working for him are business people, who know how to make a buck. He made his money gaming the system, and no doubt he's planning to have the American gov't do the same on the international playing field.
10
GM made money by gaming the system too. And it created jobs for millions of Americans. This is somehow bad?
Ijreilly,
GM also lost a lot of money. Gaming the system is short term smart but doesn't solve long term issues.
GM also lost a lot of money. Gaming the system is short term smart but doesn't solve long term issues.
1
What will a con man such as Mr. Trump do? He conned his way into the White House. It will be interesting to see what con job he will next pull on America. Maybe rounding up and interning undocumented workers will be the next distraction. But what will be the con?
18
I believe he was elected because people are just annoyed at politicians. He did not con his way in. If he would bring back all the manufacturing jobs such as refrigerators, stoves, washers, dryers, toasters, cell phones, cars etc....then deport the non-federal criminal illegal aliens, repeal obamacare........the country does well. Manufacturing in the U.S. would not increase prices like people think it would. The cost for materials on a refrigerator is about 100.00 and the labor to build it would involve less than 20 hours. If the worker is paid 12.00 an hour he/she makes 240.00 . The total cost is 340.00 and can be sold for 600.00 which would be an average price.
1
Will deny he ever promised this stuff, just you wait.
7
It sounds simple Sergio, but there's a lot more to it than that.
1 - Labor wouldn't be $12 an hour when you can flip burgers for 10-12 an hour. It would be in the range of 20-25 minimum.
2 - You have the parts @ $100 but what about the overhead to cover the facility to build, the cost to bring the product to the facility, the location / warehouse rented to store the fridge once it's built?
3 - Additional overhead, accountants, planners, facility managers, etc.
4 - Margin and inventory. You need to turn your inventory decently to ensure you have cash flow. You also need a healthy margin, in the 55% (at minimum before discounts / promotions) to ensure you do more than break even.
There's a lot more that goes into the costs of goods besides raw material and building. Your theory is logical.
1 - Labor wouldn't be $12 an hour when you can flip burgers for 10-12 an hour. It would be in the range of 20-25 minimum.
2 - You have the parts @ $100 but what about the overhead to cover the facility to build, the cost to bring the product to the facility, the location / warehouse rented to store the fridge once it's built?
3 - Additional overhead, accountants, planners, facility managers, etc.
4 - Margin and inventory. You need to turn your inventory decently to ensure you have cash flow. You also need a healthy margin, in the 55% (at minimum before discounts / promotions) to ensure you do more than break even.
There's a lot more that goes into the costs of goods besides raw material and building. Your theory is logical.
9
Surely, you don't think the average Trump voter understands this kind of information!
55
No, they probably don't. All of us with friends, co-workers, relatives etc. who fall into this category need to take the time to talk to them about this and we need to do it in a way that is respectful and helpful.
Finding links to news stories or articles is a good way to start. Send them along with a nice note mentioning that you know this is something they take an interest in. Talk about it over lunch or coffee etc.
Some people will refuse to listen or pay attention but if each of us can reach just one person, it could really make a difference.
Finding links to news stories or articles is a good way to start. Send them along with a nice note mentioning that you know this is something they take an interest in. Talk about it over lunch or coffee etc.
Some people will refuse to listen or pay attention but if each of us can reach just one person, it could really make a difference.
13
None of Trump's supporters bothered to learn anything about economics or policy, most of them just sat and whined and then eagerly followed the guy who promised them rainbows and unicorns. It will be interesting to see what happens when the rainbows and unicorns fail to appear.
90
You wouldn't know it to look at them, but it just so happens that unicorns have a wicked grasp on economics.
1
A strong dollar would be good except that China always manipulates their currency to stay lower than ours so they can earn more on imports.
5
But we can buy our own bonds. We can “manipulate” the dollar as well as the Chinese.
2
I'm going to invest in bananas to fund my retirement. We are soon to be living in a banana republic, so I ought to get a pretty good return.
38
None of the comments I read here concern a healthy internal market, although Len Charlap provided an interesting analysis. When confronted by contradiction, intelligent policy goes back to original first principles, and sets "rules of thumb" and equivalences (such as an increasing GDP being essential for a good economy) on a shelf. It is a very big deal when Americans run out of work; it's even a bigger deal when we scramble to buy products for a few cents less (even dollars less) from somebody half way around the world rather than your neighbor. That's how and why tariffs work, rationally applied. They are not necessarily forever. When we began to develop our economy in the early 19th century, the goal was to manufacture for internal consumption, but most importantly, to establish systems of infrastructure to maintain our wealth-creating ability (what our Constitution describes as the General Welfare), such as power, education, security, etc. Once those were in place, we could listen to arguments for colonializing the developed world like England did to us until our independence. So, first principles - have we dropped below a threshold that now requires national policy that shores up national systems of infrastructure in power, education, security, etc? THAT is the metric that must be checked before we even think about picking up Irwin's analysis.
8
But, but, but...the dollar has fallen by much more than 10% over the past 15 years. Furthermore, the deficit as % of GDP today of -2.7% is at the average since 1980. Since 1980!
Meaning, it's too little, too early to draw such large conclusions based on the strengthening dollar alone.
Hmm..agree on Anti-Trump headline first, mine data to support afterwards. It seems Upshot still haven't learnt any lessons from the election. Not a problem. Last one, please turn off the lights.
Meaning, it's too little, too early to draw such large conclusions based on the strengthening dollar alone.
Hmm..agree on Anti-Trump headline first, mine data to support afterwards. It seems Upshot still haven't learnt any lessons from the election. Not a problem. Last one, please turn off the lights.
6
A strong dollar is highly beneficial...to those who already have lots of dollars.
10
No, a strong dollar is good for importers, bad for exporters. There cannot be both a strong US dollar and a strong Chinese RMB. Exchange rates are relative ... if one currency in a pair strengthens, the other, by definition, weakens.
A strong dollar also depresses commodity prices as most are priced globally in dollars.
A strong dollar also depresses commodity prices as most are priced globally in dollars.
2
One first needs a Commerce Secretary, Treasury Secretary, and President who actually understand basic economics and policy.
Not much confidence in that happening here.
Not much confidence in that happening here.
90
Contradiction: You want everyone to pay a large amount of money for the products and services you offer, but you want to pay as little as possible to everyone else for the products and services they offer.
There only one way to succeed with these contradictory options: The products and services you offer must be highly-valued by everyone, so that they pay you top-dollar for what you offer. At a national scale, the best way to do this is: Remove all government interference in production.
"Trade Deficits" are a red herring - Americans buy cheaper foreign goods with US dollars, which foreigners must inevitably use to purchase American goods because US dollars only have value here in the US (the US dollar eventually has to come home). American manufacturers, with the removal of government interference, can make their products and services cheaper to compete.
There only one way to succeed with these contradictory options: The products and services you offer must be highly-valued by everyone, so that they pay you top-dollar for what you offer. At a national scale, the best way to do this is: Remove all government interference in production.
"Trade Deficits" are a red herring - Americans buy cheaper foreign goods with US dollars, which foreigners must inevitably use to purchase American goods because US dollars only have value here in the US (the US dollar eventually has to come home). American manufacturers, with the removal of government interference, can make their products and services cheaper to compete.
3
But if we already know that no government interference in production results in events like the Triangle Shirtwaist fire, lung choking pollution from cars, unsafe food, coal mines that explore, asbestos, and so on.
Why repeat the experiment to determine if those are, in fact, bad for workers and consumers?
Why repeat the experiment to determine if those are, in fact, bad for workers and consumers?
30
Foreign investors can (and do) also buy real estate, which will not impact manufacturing in the same way. So, not just "American Goods"
6
Really! So the American factory worker would be happy living on a "Chinese" wage?
3
Trump is completely clueless, disintrested in policy and shows no interest or having the dicispline to read a policy proposal. As one of the previous commentators stated "Trump is a dolt".
To figure Trump decision making flip a coin or learn Python and use the random number generator to guesstimate where he is going. And expect him to change his mind in 12 hours. God help us.
To figure Trump decision making flip a coin or learn Python and use the random number generator to guesstimate where he is going. And expect him to change his mind in 12 hours. God help us.
27
This appears to be another one sided viewpoint which begins with incorrect assumptions about President Elect Trump and that he will face a situation with necessary tradeoffs that he has not dealt with before. Of course, we see this kind of talk from someone on the liberal left. The fact is that we have so many limits to free enterprise in place including our restriction of fracking that, simply freeing our enterpreneurial spirit and removing the EPA from the backs of corporations will increase business within and outside our country.
There will be so many changes with a freer market within the US and many corporations returning to this freer economy that the marketplace within and outside the US will expand. The calculations made are based on an economy that is essentially dead and does not take into account the myriad changes that a freer market will bring with it.
By moving more towards a much freer market, we will have a far expanded economy, and these economists will be surprised that their models have misread the forces at play. Perhaps Mr Irwin is the one who knows little about true market forces since we have not seen them in quite some time.
Free up the markets, let creative destruction be a part of this process and watch what happens. A man with vision is worth a million without much vision and their 12 c calculators.
There will be so many changes with a freer market within the US and many corporations returning to this freer economy that the marketplace within and outside the US will expand. The calculations made are based on an economy that is essentially dead and does not take into account the myriad changes that a freer market will bring with it.
By moving more towards a much freer market, we will have a far expanded economy, and these economists will be surprised that their models have misread the forces at play. Perhaps Mr Irwin is the one who knows little about true market forces since we have not seen them in quite some time.
Free up the markets, let creative destruction be a part of this process and watch what happens. A man with vision is worth a million without much vision and their 12 c calculators.
5
It is hard to fathom under what circumstances a man who has spent his life buying and selling real estate with other people's money would have encountered the nuances of broader macroeconomic policy decisions that effect a broad range of industrial, societal and world market issues.
One can only hope the nuanced meetings to decide whether to go with gold or brass fixtures and whether to replace the carpeting with tile or hard wood floors have prepared him for these more complex policy decisions.
One can only hope the nuanced meetings to decide whether to go with gold or brass fixtures and whether to replace the carpeting with tile or hard wood floors have prepared him for these more complex policy decisions.
41
You fail to acknowledge the fact that most Americans don't want the EPA to go.
15
Satire?
10
Besides the contradictions of Trump' economic policy (or plans?), I hope you will write about the likely effects of Trump's plans (economic or not) on human and social capital. My guess is that effects will be mixed, but that the net effects, if they can be measured, will be negative. Our infrastructure will improve, but we will breathe somewhat more polluted air, drink somewhat more contaminated water, become somewhat less educated. On the other hand, the rich will become much richer.
26
Great points, but can't agree that Trump will be personally struggling with complex economic policy issues along the lines you presented. In order to actually struggle with an economic policy issue there must first be a basic intellectual understanding of the moving parts, the conflicting paths, and a wrestling with the pros and cons of each option, including gaming out the "what-ifs" of each option. Asking Trump to grapple with complex economic policy conundrum is like asking a 9th grader to solve a calculus problem. Rather get his mind around an issue and personally struggle to understand it from all angles, he will use his gut and within a short period of time go with the recommendation of whomever he is trusting at the moment. He is too intellectually shadow, emotionally impatient, and self-satisfied with his shoot-from-the-hip method of decision-making to personally and intellectually grapple with complex and difficult economic policy issues, for which there is often no perfect answer.
114
Or he'll turn the decision making over to Pence who will have us all pray that factories reopen, jobs return, and roads repair themselves. Then, when the deficit balloons, he's have us pray it away.
28
Excellent analysis. One thing that concerns me is the massive increase in the federal deficit that is expected if Trump's proposed policies come to fruition (namely massive tax cuts combined with large spending increases for defense and infrastructure while not offsetting it all with the cuts on other programs). Trump's answer is, well tax cuts will grow the economy more broadly bringing in additional revenue that will offset the deficit additions. The problem is that if the broader economy doesn't boom like Trump expects, then it will just add money to the deficit. I'm worried that we're going down an economic road that will be increasingly harder to correct course on in the future. And that's not even to mention environmental policy, which is arguably even more worrisome.
30
I think it's important to point out that a trade deficit simply means we import goods and services of more value than we export. In and of itself it isn't good or bad. Deficit has a negative connotation, but there's no actual bill to be paid here.
In theory when you have a big deficit there should be less demand for your currency because people aren't buying goods and services in it, pushing down its relative value. However, the USD is a global reserve currency and there are other reasons investors flock to it.
So, "fixing" the trade deficit is an odd concept, and maybe it's one measure, but it's certainly not the measure smart people look at.
That is what Trump sold though, and I honestly don't believe he understood what he was saying at this level.
In theory when you have a big deficit there should be less demand for your currency because people aren't buying goods and services in it, pushing down its relative value. However, the USD is a global reserve currency and there are other reasons investors flock to it.
So, "fixing" the trade deficit is an odd concept, and maybe it's one measure, but it's certainly not the measure smart people look at.
That is what Trump sold though, and I honestly don't believe he understood what he was saying at this level.
20
Has he even laid out an economic policy? We have been playing a lot of what ifs. I think no one really has any idea whats this nut is going to do.
He has said so many contradictory things. I feel like we are all just guessing what his plans are.
I say prepare for the worsrt, and hope for the best. Im going to make as much money as I can as quickly as I can before he can affect our country in any way. I say we all got about a year economy wise to make money and thank Obama.
He has said so many contradictory things. I feel like we are all just guessing what his plans are.
I say prepare for the worsrt, and hope for the best. Im going to make as much money as I can as quickly as I can before he can affect our country in any way. I say we all got about a year economy wise to make money and thank Obama.
18
Don't be ridiculous, 'the Don' knows better than all of the economists. And if anything goes wrong, it won't effect him, just us! So what's the big deal?
19
Come on people, none of this is rocket science. If you want to understand and predict where Donald Trump's economic policies are going all you have to do is figure out the ABSOLUTE best policies for his and his kids' business interests (and that includes his need for cheap and undocumented people to work in his his resorts and hotels). That is all you have to do and it is not that hard.
56
You almost seem to suggest that Mr Trump has a history of ensuring HIS prosperity even if the enterprise he is running goes bust.
14
it is beginning to sink in, and we are all scrambling to enlighten Mr Trump on what needs his attention, prop him up so it is not as bad as we all know it is going to be. Attempt to save this great nation from demise in the hand of a illusionist and ignorant person. If the elite and media will seize from wink wink hint to him, maybe just maybe it will help him understand the gravity of what he signed up for. He will make mistakes and off course hopefully learn from them, who am I kidding. God help us all
10
Donald isl Making America Grate Again.
8
He alone can fix it.
7
The policy suggested here (pseudo Keynesian) is to put it most charitably: Moronic.
Of course cheap dollars mean more foreign sales.
Because the sales are at a discount. In real value.
So as you cheapen the dollar you do have more sales abroad.
Because more and more you are being paid less in real value.
Now look at Argentina-where the last time I checked a year our two ago the peso was to put it mildly was falling apace-so to speak.
The average Argentine therefore wants what?
If you guessed US dollars you are as smart as the average Argentine!
If not as smart as the "scientific" economist.
And Argentines get US dollars whenever they can.
And they do get them. In preference to the peso.
Even when they have to keep the dollars under the mattress-literally in some cases.
Throughout economic history countries with stable currencies have prospered.
Those who do not have not prospered.
As further proof: Countries that have had weak currencies and consequent bad real economies have invariably had substantially increased real prosperity.
QED!
Of course cheap dollars mean more foreign sales.
Because the sales are at a discount. In real value.
So as you cheapen the dollar you do have more sales abroad.
Because more and more you are being paid less in real value.
Now look at Argentina-where the last time I checked a year our two ago the peso was to put it mildly was falling apace-so to speak.
The average Argentine therefore wants what?
If you guessed US dollars you are as smart as the average Argentine!
If not as smart as the "scientific" economist.
And Argentines get US dollars whenever they can.
And they do get them. In preference to the peso.
Even when they have to keep the dollars under the mattress-literally in some cases.
Throughout economic history countries with stable currencies have prospered.
Those who do not have not prospered.
As further proof: Countries that have had weak currencies and consequent bad real economies have invariably had substantially increased real prosperity.
QED!
4
Hah! The Donald will sprinkle his awesome greatness upon the US dollar and it will strangle every other currency with its Trumptanic strength! All shall wither and despair for the hour of financial salvation is at hand!
6
We are going from a rational governance to let's wing it and hope the patronage appointee makes a good guess. We are going to get supply side as the rationale and we will wind up like Kansas on the major scale of disaster. You voted for change, well surprise, you are going to get it.
29
Yes, this is a dilemma, but in the gtand scheme of things the trade deficit is not so
mething that most people fret over. Let's see when this subject even comes up again.
mething that most people fret over. Let's see when this subject even comes up again.
1
Welcome to the real world Mr. Trump! One thing is for certain, your "enhanced " golf handicap is going to rise sharply!
6
Do anyone thinks that Trump understands any of this? Does he really care? We know cutting taxes will increase the deficit, always has, and we know about the dollar and we know about global trade being a reality to increase GDP, and we are seeing the decrease in regulations opening up the chance for more recession, and Trump is oblivious to any of this.
His followews also are oblivious to this but will soon see the results. However they will blame Obama.
His followews also are oblivious to this but will soon see the results. However they will blame Obama.
14
How are we supposed to trust a man whose campaign slogan was; '' Make America great again, '' while at the same time manufacturing his products out of the country that he sells under his brand name ?
Actions speak louder than words or even promises.
Actions speak louder than words or even promises.
124
That is one of the dumber memes out there.
Trump is not, and never was a major manufacturer of anything. He was a real estate guy and then in later life, a TV host.
He LICENSES his name to a few consumer products -- shirts, some neckties and I believe, steaks. Do you think he also raises the cows himself personally? He has NOTHING to do with those products, besides selling his name and collecting a percentage of the profits.
It would be impractical or impossible for Trump to bring back the entire US textiles industry -- after 30 years -- to manufacture a very small brand of neckties and a few dressy shirts.
And making them in America? Good luck. We sent our whole textiles industry to China, Mexico, the Philippines and Vietnam -- years and years ago. To make anything here, you'd literally have to build a new plant and train all new workers.
Trump is not, and never was a major manufacturer of anything. He was a real estate guy and then in later life, a TV host.
He LICENSES his name to a few consumer products -- shirts, some neckties and I believe, steaks. Do you think he also raises the cows himself personally? He has NOTHING to do with those products, besides selling his name and collecting a percentage of the profits.
It would be impractical or impossible for Trump to bring back the entire US textiles industry -- after 30 years -- to manufacture a very small brand of neckties and a few dressy shirts.
And making them in America? Good luck. We sent our whole textiles industry to China, Mexico, the Philippines and Vietnam -- years and years ago. To make anything here, you'd literally have to build a new plant and train all new workers.
3
@concerned
Whether it is a meme or not , it is true and fact. (not disputed)
Using CAPS over here to try to emphasize a point, while contradicting yourself at the end of the sentence is not very much of an argument.
Trump licenses his name ( in business with other businesses ) that are not manufacturing in America. Regardless of the product or how much or whatever, he promotes American while taking away American jobs. Of course an entire industry cannot come back 100%, but that is not the issue.
The issue is one person promoting one thing while actively working against said promotion. ( hypocritical )
You used a lot of words to actually prove my point. Thank you
Whether it is a meme or not , it is true and fact. (not disputed)
Using CAPS over here to try to emphasize a point, while contradicting yourself at the end of the sentence is not very much of an argument.
Trump licenses his name ( in business with other businesses ) that are not manufacturing in America. Regardless of the product or how much or whatever, he promotes American while taking away American jobs. Of course an entire industry cannot come back 100%, but that is not the issue.
The issue is one person promoting one thing while actively working against said promotion. ( hypocritical )
You used a lot of words to actually prove my point. Thank you
11
Trump has no clue and so far his staff seems very poor. It's going to be a rough 4 years.
12
Have been following the financial press across the globe and lots of people have ideas of what Mr. Trump's economic policies might do or, in other words, they're making stuff up. And what will the Republican controlled House and Senate do, as they are clearly not on the same page as Mr. Trump?
So a story on just a [one] contradiction? Saw that the Japanese PM was told by the Trump transition team to not literally take what Mr. Trump says or, in other words, don't believe him. "Contradiction", is that really the right word?
So a story on just a [one] contradiction? Saw that the Japanese PM was told by the Trump transition team to not literally take what Mr. Trump says or, in other words, don't believe him. "Contradiction", is that really the right word?
3
I am looking forward to paying 75 dollars for a watermelon.
18
I'm starting a business to use robots to grow and harvest watermelons. The machines will be built in Ohio by high paid union labor.
See how that works?
See how that works?
4
While I am looking forward to being paid 75 dollars for a watermelon.
It sure is handy that I can force you to buy it.
It sure is handy that I can force you to buy it.
3
But let’s imagine that Mr. Trump follows through on the policy mix he’s hinted at so far:
Oh God no-please-I am still reeling from the idea that this is who America really wants to run the country much less ready to actually think about what is actually going to happen......
We have finally answered the question: "Is our children learning?" And the answer is clearly they is not.
Oh God no-please-I am still reeling from the idea that this is who America really wants to run the country much less ready to actually think about what is actually going to happen......
We have finally answered the question: "Is our children learning?" And the answer is clearly they is not.
15
Economics is gender, race, color, ethnicity, sociology, faith, education, politics and history plus arithmetic. Economics is not a science. There are way too many unknowns and variables to make any useful universal repeatable predictable results or to ever use any meaningful controls as checks on possible alternative explanations.
Contradiction is thus an endemic eternal aspect of economics. Akin to the "insights" and "wisdom" in politics, history, law, finance, banking and accounting or any of the social "sciences".
Republican Saint Ronald Wilson Reagan prophesized that America could cut taxes and increase social welfare and military spending forever because neither deficits nor debt matter since we are Americans and this is an exceptional America.
Contradiction is thus an endemic eternal aspect of economics. Akin to the "insights" and "wisdom" in politics, history, law, finance, banking and accounting or any of the social "sciences".
Republican Saint Ronald Wilson Reagan prophesized that America could cut taxes and increase social welfare and military spending forever because neither deficits nor debt matter since we are Americans and this is an exceptional America.
4
If it is correct to assume - and I think it might very well be - that Trump has no capacity to understand or focus on monetary and economic policy, the question is who will be in charge of it?
A hardcore supply-sider like Ryan or Pence? A more populist figure (I can't think who that would be in today's Republican Party)? Ivanka? Jared? Gingrich? Melania? OK, so it probably won't be Melania.
But we can be assured it will be whoever succeeds in flattering Donald Trump and demonstrating his/her loyalty. It will not be because of competence or any coherent strategy.
A hardcore supply-sider like Ryan or Pence? A more populist figure (I can't think who that would be in today's Republican Party)? Ivanka? Jared? Gingrich? Melania? OK, so it probably won't be Melania.
But we can be assured it will be whoever succeeds in flattering Donald Trump and demonstrating his/her loyalty. It will not be because of competence or any coherent strategy.
25
When are people in America going to realize that a return to manufacturing jobs is just never going to happen? Most manufacturing jobs will be fully automated in the future, that's the way the world is heading. Instead of constantly trying to drag yourselves back into the past how about you try looking forward. So many deluded people thinking they can halt progress.
Here's a novel idea for moaning American's; give up on 'manufacturing' and start up-skilling and retraining in areas that actually important, like technologies.
This is why America is being left in the dust, the education system is pathetic and teaches kids nothing of value, nothing that will actually get a head in life.
It is so hard to have sympathy for a country that is so utterly brain dead.
Also could the people have any shorter memories? The last time the Republicans were in charge they helped drive the country into a recession. From what I've read this morning it seems America is heading for financial ruin. Once Paul Ryan gets his greasy mitts on social security it's going to be an utter disaster. I thought people would have learnt a lesson from when Bush stole trillions from social security to fund his war for oil.
Sorry America but you just don't deserve any respect, how about instead of moaning you get off your backsides and start doing something positive to help yourselves. That old cliche is so true. "Education/knowledge is power'
Here's a novel idea for moaning American's; give up on 'manufacturing' and start up-skilling and retraining in areas that actually important, like technologies.
This is why America is being left in the dust, the education system is pathetic and teaches kids nothing of value, nothing that will actually get a head in life.
It is so hard to have sympathy for a country that is so utterly brain dead.
Also could the people have any shorter memories? The last time the Republicans were in charge they helped drive the country into a recession. From what I've read this morning it seems America is heading for financial ruin. Once Paul Ryan gets his greasy mitts on social security it's going to be an utter disaster. I thought people would have learnt a lesson from when Bush stole trillions from social security to fund his war for oil.
Sorry America but you just don't deserve any respect, how about instead of moaning you get off your backsides and start doing something positive to help yourselves. That old cliche is so true. "Education/knowledge is power'
152
To utter such thoughts is to mark yourself out as a member of the "liberal elite," the new class enemy of the people.
11
It has nothing to do with Liberal elitism, and everything to do with being able to look from the outside in and see it for what it really is. It's much easier to see what's really happening when you haven't been force-fed a diet of American elitism and blind patriotism since birth. And I don't think the "Liberal Elite' is as much as an enemy as the uneducated self serving racists and bigots who make up a large portion of the country and are about to infest the whitehouse and every facet of the government. It's actually sad to see how badly the education system has failed the masses. honestly from the comments I've read I've come to the conclusion that lot's of American's believe the world is flat and consists solely of America, Mexico, Canada, Russia, China and the Middle East.
On starting school every child should be given a world map, that might go some way in teaching the next generation that there is a big wide world out there and no country can go it alone and think it will not only survive but be 'Great'.
Sadly it's time to accept the reality, America is only 'Great' in it's own eyes. the rest of the planet sees it not so much as a swamp; more a cesspool of hatred and intolerance where the monsters have been dredged to the surface.
On starting school every child should be given a world map, that might go some way in teaching the next generation that there is a big wide world out there and no country can go it alone and think it will not only survive but be 'Great'.
Sadly it's time to accept the reality, America is only 'Great' in it's own eyes. the rest of the planet sees it not so much as a swamp; more a cesspool of hatred and intolerance where the monsters have been dredged to the surface.
12
You are addressing logic to a wounded bull. I suggest you just get out of its way.
3
Trump has promised the workers of Carrier that he will preserve their jobs now threatened by removal of the plant Mexico, where workers earn far less than Americans. Although Trump claims to be a foe of socialism, at the same time he will use the coercive powers of the state to compel the Carrier corporation to cancel the change. Who will lose from Trump's largesse are Carrier's investors whose dividends will to reduced. Thus, Trump will bring socialism to America but he'll call it America First. Does anyone believe that this ignorant dolt has the mental capacity to grasp economic, much less any other, issues a president must face?
68
I don't blame Carrier workers and others like them for their troubles. And I support policies that help them. But let me play devil's advocate for a minute. Historically, the USA has been a place where people don't sit on their duffs waiting for the government to bring their jobs back. People packed up their wagons, mounted their mules, boarded their ships and went to where they thought the opportunity was. The dealt with cholera and other diseases, the hazards of weather and deserts and more. Today, all you have to do is pack your boxes, turn the ignition key and maybe enroll in community college, often on the state's dime. No cholera! And it's unlikely 2 of your kids and your husband will die enroute. Unless you are Native or a descendent of an enslaved African, someone in your family probably moved here to get a better life for themselves and their children. And made bigger sacrifices in order to so than many of us can even imagine. So while I support policies that benefit the little guy more than the wealthy, I also wonder why I am not hearing stories of people moving to seek better lives for themselves.
6
jean - There is something in what you say but moving is very expensive and not everyone is able to do that.
It would be nice if all of the Trump supporters who got their "news" from places like Facebook would use the internet to read some actual news about things like the industry they work in, which skills will be marketable in the future etc.
It would be nice if all of the Trump supporters who got their "news" from places like Facebook would use the internet to read some actual news about things like the industry they work in, which skills will be marketable in the future etc.
8
They should move to Mexico then?
"The value of the Mexican peso has fallen 10 percent against the dollar, a remarkable swing for the United States’ third-largest trading partner."
Remarkable, indeed. But the peso has actually devalued by 21% in the course of the Presidential campaign, and by about 35% in the last two years. (Regular US holiday makers in Mexico will remember 12 to 13 pesos to the dollar just two years ago)
The original tariffs eliminated by NAFTA were around 10%. So if you are just trying to save money on products brought back to the US, it still looks like a pretty good deal.
But the real reason US companies relocate some operations to Mexico has more to do with their free trade agreements in Latin America, which are more favorable than the US enjoys.
Expect a lot of "retire in Mexico" stories in the near future, where your Social Security checks will be a lot more valuable. Sorry, Florida and Arizona!
Remarkable, indeed. But the peso has actually devalued by 21% in the course of the Presidential campaign, and by about 35% in the last two years. (Regular US holiday makers in Mexico will remember 12 to 13 pesos to the dollar just two years ago)
The original tariffs eliminated by NAFTA were around 10%. So if you are just trying to save money on products brought back to the US, it still looks like a pretty good deal.
But the real reason US companies relocate some operations to Mexico has more to do with their free trade agreements in Latin America, which are more favorable than the US enjoys.
Expect a lot of "retire in Mexico" stories in the near future, where your Social Security checks will be a lot more valuable. Sorry, Florida and Arizona!
6
"The Commerce Secretary complains, 'Mr. President, this strong dollar is just killing our manufacturers; they can’t compete with this kind of appreciation.' The Treasury Secretary, who is in charge of the currency, responds, 'It’s a necessary evil, Mr. President; our economy is booming so much that global investors just can’t get enough of United States assets.'
When there are these kinds of disputes, the president has to decide."
There you go again -- another false equivalency. Do you really think any big decision like this is going to happen this way during a Trump "administration." Even if he agreed to such a powwow he would quickly get tired and bored with it, and run out of the oval office to his nearest golf course. It's more likely that Pence would make the decision, or one of his cabinet heads would just shoot first and ask questions later. Chaos, here we come.
On the other hand, maybe you're just joking. Which scenario should we hope for?
When there are these kinds of disputes, the president has to decide."
There you go again -- another false equivalency. Do you really think any big decision like this is going to happen this way during a Trump "administration." Even if he agreed to such a powwow he would quickly get tired and bored with it, and run out of the oval office to his nearest golf course. It's more likely that Pence would make the decision, or one of his cabinet heads would just shoot first and ask questions later. Chaos, here we come.
On the other hand, maybe you're just joking. Which scenario should we hope for?
4
And chances are excellent the same things, with the markets and dollars, would have occurred if Clinton got elected. The world markets, fro months, have been waiting, and praying, for the end of the US elections. There has been pent up demand in the currency and stock markets, due to uncertainty.
So the dollar is now worth more. and that will make things cost more fro what little goods are made in the US, to begin with. This has been happening for decades. Some of our trade deals made it much easier to send jobs over seas. a situation that Clinton, Trump or Sanders, who all claimed to be against trade deals,had to deal with a sense of reality.
Of course, Americans do not want a weak dollar, they want a strong one, as it adds to their wealth. They also do not want inflation, especially 1%, it make their portfolios more healthy.
In the end, campaign promises, are just that, promises. I I had a $1 for each broken campaign promise, I would be a multi-millionaire.
Regardless of op-ed slant here, Clinton or Trump would have had difficulty dealing with globalization. You cannot undo 40+ years of redistribution of the wealth, to the hands of under 200 families in the world, in a mere 4 years.
Finally, for those people losing their jobs at Carrier, in Indianapolis, Trump made a promise who will not be able to keep. Same goes for the jobs at Whirlpool, Amana, et., etc. Why? Because Americans demand cheaper washers, dryers, microwaves, stoves, refrigerators and HVAC systems.
So the dollar is now worth more. and that will make things cost more fro what little goods are made in the US, to begin with. This has been happening for decades. Some of our trade deals made it much easier to send jobs over seas. a situation that Clinton, Trump or Sanders, who all claimed to be against trade deals,had to deal with a sense of reality.
Of course, Americans do not want a weak dollar, they want a strong one, as it adds to their wealth. They also do not want inflation, especially 1%, it make their portfolios more healthy.
In the end, campaign promises, are just that, promises. I I had a $1 for each broken campaign promise, I would be a multi-millionaire.
Regardless of op-ed slant here, Clinton or Trump would have had difficulty dealing with globalization. You cannot undo 40+ years of redistribution of the wealth, to the hands of under 200 families in the world, in a mere 4 years.
Finally, for those people losing their jobs at Carrier, in Indianapolis, Trump made a promise who will not be able to keep. Same goes for the jobs at Whirlpool, Amana, et., etc. Why? Because Americans demand cheaper washers, dryers, microwaves, stoves, refrigerators and HVAC systems.
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@Nick: except that is not true. I buy the appliances in my home; I would gladly pay more for American-built old fashioned quality like we had pre-1980. I probably could not pay double, but 10-15% more? absolutely yes.
I have bought some of those "super low priced" appliances, and while it is at first thrilling to buy a microwave for $39 (my FIRST microwave oven in 1979 cost almost $500!!!!)....in short order, you find out that it is just a piece of junk that ends up in the trash. No savings, because you have buy over and over again.
A couple of months ago, at an estate sale, I found an ANCIENT toaster in the garage -- yup, Made in America, circa 1926. It was rusty and covered with dirt. I cleaned it and polished it up -- it looks like brand new. My husband put a modern safety cord in to replace the old frayed cloth cord. I plugged it in and...TOAST! After probably 60 years stored in a GARAGE, exposed to the elements. Now that, sir, is American-made quality and I WILL pay for it, and so will millions of other American citizens.
I have bought some of those "super low priced" appliances, and while it is at first thrilling to buy a microwave for $39 (my FIRST microwave oven in 1979 cost almost $500!!!!)....in short order, you find out that it is just a piece of junk that ends up in the trash. No savings, because you have buy over and over again.
A couple of months ago, at an estate sale, I found an ANCIENT toaster in the garage -- yup, Made in America, circa 1926. It was rusty and covered with dirt. I cleaned it and polished it up -- it looks like brand new. My husband put a modern safety cord in to replace the old frayed cloth cord. I plugged it in and...TOAST! After probably 60 years stored in a GARAGE, exposed to the elements. Now that, sir, is American-made quality and I WILL pay for it, and so will millions of other American citizens.
5
Concerned Citizen, I try to be American, as much as I can, but it is hard. With that said, we two may be in a minority, else there would not be places like WalMart which are chock full of goods made overseas.
You'd be surprised what is no longer made here, but still go by household names. A few years ago I bought a set of Revereware. What more American sounding than teh company Paul Revere help find. Guess what all those nice copper bottom stainless Steel pots and pans were made in China. I also bought fine china; it was also made in China. As were a number of small appliances with all wonderful sounding American manufacturer names.
I did not check to see where my set of stainless steel GE kitchen appliances were made, but chances are very good they were made in Mexico. As probably my Electrolux Washer and Dryer.
Millions of Americans think they are buying goods, thinking they are made in the US of A, but never look to see that what they just bought came on a slow boat from China.
FYI, I ordered the china, small appliances and pots/pans on line. So, I did not have a chance to see where they were made, until I received them.
You'd be surprised what is no longer made here, but still go by household names. A few years ago I bought a set of Revereware. What more American sounding than teh company Paul Revere help find. Guess what all those nice copper bottom stainless Steel pots and pans were made in China. I also bought fine china; it was also made in China. As were a number of small appliances with all wonderful sounding American manufacturer names.
I did not check to see where my set of stainless steel GE kitchen appliances were made, but chances are very good they were made in Mexico. As probably my Electrolux Washer and Dryer.
Millions of Americans think they are buying goods, thinking they are made in the US of A, but never look to see that what they just bought came on a slow boat from China.
FYI, I ordered the china, small appliances and pots/pans on line. So, I did not have a chance to see where they were made, until I received them.
7
President-elect Trump ran on "Make America Great Again". He's going to have make a good bit of progress towards it or wind up with a different Congress in two years, one that may not favor his policies. He's also going to find it difficult to get some of his election ideas debated in either house because various senators and representatives benefit from a lack of debate on any idea or problem. They want change but only if it helps them. If the proposed change makes our lives better but not theirs it will be relegated to the darkest corner of the closet.
It's time we started to realize that both parties have an agenda and it doesn't always work in our best interests. Instead of lining up on either side, voters should demand real debates about the issues. And we should vote and demand that every citizen has an easy time voting no matter what their politics happen to be. Maybe if that happened we'd see some work on our behalf coming out of DC, our statehouses, and our local governments.
It's time we started to realize that both parties have an agenda and it doesn't always work in our best interests. Instead of lining up on either side, voters should demand real debates about the issues. And we should vote and demand that every citizen has an easy time voting no matter what their politics happen to be. Maybe if that happened we'd see some work on our behalf coming out of DC, our statehouses, and our local governments.
16
For most of us, it is a challenge to understand macroeconomics, especially with all the variables in this changing world. We went through a campaign where president-elect Trump said pretty much anything just to get news headlines and free press coverage. None of us-- even his supporters-- really knew what he stood for.
Here's hoping respected economists analyze and publish press stories about exactly how Trump-Pence policy decisions, as they unfold, affect everyday people who supported a Trump oligarchy -- and the rest of us.
Here's hoping respected economists analyze and publish press stories about exactly how Trump-Pence policy decisions, as they unfold, affect everyday people who supported a Trump oligarchy -- and the rest of us.
8
I would benefit from a simple explanation of economics as it applies to our government--maybe comic book form would gain a wider audience.
(Many people do not understand basic finances). Also, basic explanations of how government works would help voters make better decisions. For example, a presidential candidate can promise free public colleges--but these colleges are the responsibility of the state governments, not the president. First figure out why a progressive Democratic governor such as Jerry Brown hasn't bought free public colleges to California, which is low-hanging fruit compared to working with the 33 Republican governors.
(Many people do not understand basic finances). Also, basic explanations of how government works would help voters make better decisions. For example, a presidential candidate can promise free public colleges--but these colleges are the responsibility of the state governments, not the president. First figure out why a progressive Democratic governor such as Jerry Brown hasn't bought free public colleges to California, which is low-hanging fruit compared to working with the 33 Republican governors.
1
Our local newspaper, The Spokesman-Review, did just that last Sunday, with a piece that examined how Trump's proposed tariffs on Chinese goods would impact our region's ag industry (45% of our wheat is exported to China). The vitriol from Trump supporters was deafening; they accused the SR of everything short of treason, and maybe even that. Distressing.
17
Same with the Midwest's corn, soybeans, and pork (and wheat). One suspects all those farmers who voted for Trump are in for a surprise if he actually does what he said he would.
1
I gotta say, if I lived on another planet, this would just be fantastic to watch unfold.
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" “let’s appoint Fed officials who will cut interest rates” might temporarily let you have both a booming domestic economy and a competitive export sector, but would mean an increase in inflation"
There's this little equation:
P = (MV)/S
where P is prices , M is the amount of money in the economy, V measures the frequency that money changes hands usefully, and S is the dollar amount of the amount of stuff, goods and services, we can produce in some time period.
A word on V. If the government gives Scrooge McDuck a Billion for advice on the comic book market, M increases by a Billion, but if Scrooge puts the bucks in his basement, and forgets about it, that doesn't affect P at all. That Billion has a V of 0. Also, if Scrooge lose a bet to Daddy Warbucks, and the Billion moves from Scrooge's basement to Daddy's, that is a change, but the V does not change because it is not a useful change. It doesn't affect commerce. Lower interest rates increase V.
Inflationistas cannot understand an equation with more than 3 variables. To them it looks like:
P = MV
You print more money, or lower interest rates, prices go up. End of story. Of course this might happen if S remains constant, but in point of fact, the causes of most, if not all excessive inflations since WWI has been S getting too small--shortages, The anchovy harvest failed in 1972. There was a shortage of livestock feed. Then came the oil embargo. Prices rose.
If the economy booms, S goes up so P can stay the same.
There's this little equation:
P = (MV)/S
where P is prices , M is the amount of money in the economy, V measures the frequency that money changes hands usefully, and S is the dollar amount of the amount of stuff, goods and services, we can produce in some time period.
A word on V. If the government gives Scrooge McDuck a Billion for advice on the comic book market, M increases by a Billion, but if Scrooge puts the bucks in his basement, and forgets about it, that doesn't affect P at all. That Billion has a V of 0. Also, if Scrooge lose a bet to Daddy Warbucks, and the Billion moves from Scrooge's basement to Daddy's, that is a change, but the V does not change because it is not a useful change. It doesn't affect commerce. Lower interest rates increase V.
Inflationistas cannot understand an equation with more than 3 variables. To them it looks like:
P = MV
You print more money, or lower interest rates, prices go up. End of story. Of course this might happen if S remains constant, but in point of fact, the causes of most, if not all excessive inflations since WWI has been S getting too small--shortages, The anchovy harvest failed in 1972. There was a shortage of livestock feed. Then came the oil embargo. Prices rose.
If the economy booms, S goes up so P can stay the same.
29
Write the comic book, really. At a 5-6 grade level
7
Thank you for making this understandable, but it makes me wonder about how the effects of globalization and the possibility that the current downtrend of such might go into a tail spin would affect the equation?
1
The problem is that the quantity theory of money doesn't fit the facts.
This article is way too simplistic. There is a problem with a positive trade balance called the Triffin Dilemma (look it up). The dollar is the world's reserve currency. To see what that means, here is an example.
Argentina needs electric power for it northern provinces, Right across the river, Brazil has huge hydroelectric installations. It costs a fortune to transmit this power to the coast where most of Brazil's people live. Argentina wants to buy. Brazil wants to sell.
But wait, Brazil does NOT want to get paid in Argentinian Pesos. Would you? Brazil want to get paid in the world's reserve currency, dollars, which Argentina ain't got.
There have to be enough dollars outside the US so international trade can happen. Since the only country that can create dollars is the US, that means we must have a negative trade balance.
What are the benefits of the dollar being the world's reserve currency? Well, since other countries want dollars, they are willing to sell us stuff for less money. Also, we have many jobs that depend on international trade which needs dollars to function well.
So what can we do? We can replace the dollars that leave the country by dollars that come from the FED through the Treasury and federal spending. If these dollars are invested properly, our economy will grow and there will be little inflation.
Otherwise we will get 1996 - 2007 when the dollars flowing from the federal gov were fewer than the dollars leaving the country. Then what happened?
Argentina needs electric power for it northern provinces, Right across the river, Brazil has huge hydroelectric installations. It costs a fortune to transmit this power to the coast where most of Brazil's people live. Argentina wants to buy. Brazil wants to sell.
But wait, Brazil does NOT want to get paid in Argentinian Pesos. Would you? Brazil want to get paid in the world's reserve currency, dollars, which Argentina ain't got.
There have to be enough dollars outside the US so international trade can happen. Since the only country that can create dollars is the US, that means we must have a negative trade balance.
What are the benefits of the dollar being the world's reserve currency? Well, since other countries want dollars, they are willing to sell us stuff for less money. Also, we have many jobs that depend on international trade which needs dollars to function well.
So what can we do? We can replace the dollars that leave the country by dollars that come from the FED through the Treasury and federal spending. If these dollars are invested properly, our economy will grow and there will be little inflation.
Otherwise we will get 1996 - 2007 when the dollars flowing from the federal gov were fewer than the dollars leaving the country. Then what happened?
62
There are plenty of dollars outside the US already. To say that we need a trade deficit to create dollars outside the US is just not true.
2
David, the only other way to create dollars outside the US I know of is what happened in the case I mentioned above. Argentina went to US banks and borrowed dollars just as in 1996 - 2007, the people & businesses in our private sector did. The results were just as disastrous.
BTW how much is enough?
BTW how much is enough?
3
Republicans have complained that the Federal Reserve maintains low interest rates to bolster the Administration and have demanded a change in the policy.
Now, Yellen is talking about raising rates and it will be ironic that the very thing Republicans want, may bring about a slow-dow in the economy, periling Trump's desire to Make America...you know.
Now, Yellen is talking about raising rates and it will be ironic that the very thing Republicans want, may bring about a slow-dow in the economy, periling Trump's desire to Make America...you know.
79
Raise rates bigly, crash hard hugely. There's no inflation whatsoever to cure, which is why Reagan's Fed caused the Reagan recession. We'll just get a depression out of it. Combine that with protectionism that doesn't create jobs at home and we should be in bread lines in no time.
4
Before the Bush Tax Cuts the capital gains tax was 20% and the tax on dividends was based on incomes [tax rates up to 39.6 %]. The Bush Tax Cuts cut the top income tax rate to 35% but lowered the capital gains tax to 15% and most importantly the tax on all dividends to 15%. Equity Funds such as Bain Capital borrowed money to take over companies. Interest on such loans is deductible. Then when they own the company this company issues "special dividends" by having it borrow money. These special dividends allow the investors to get back their investment immediately with interest taxable at low rate of 15%. Then the equity fund dismantles the company eliminating pensions having taxpayers take over the private pensions by federal law. [Federal Pension Guaranty Corp.]. Then as a bonus sell the company without the burden of pensions at 15% capital gains tax. I say forget about the tax rates and pass a law making it illegal for a company to borrow money to issue dividends. Dividends should be issued from profits of a company. The tax law should not reward investors who destroy the company by loading it with debt.
235
Capital gains tax revenue increased each time since 1981 that we've cut the capital gains tax rate. That included a 25% increase in such revenue from 2003-06 (i.e., after the Bush tax cuts). Even Bill Clinton understood the proposition that taxing capital gains has the effect of reducing the activities that lead to capital gains. Thus, he also signed legislation to reduce those taxes.
2
51% of Trump’s proposed tax cut will go the richest 1%, yielding a windfall of $1.1 million each of the super rich. $1.1 million each of the richest that can be invested in robotics to replace middle class jobs. (95% in profits from improved productivity go to the richest 1%.)
The rich keep getting richer; the rest, poorer. The death spiral tightens, redistribution of wealth accelerates.
The rich keep getting richer; the rest, poorer. The death spiral tightens, redistribution of wealth accelerates.
187
leading to more distrust of government and more political chaos.
5
Am sure you meant "concentration" of wealth accelerates.
1
I completely agree that the proposed tax cuts for the wealthy are morally and economically terribly bad policy. It is important to realize, though, that the richest 1% already have millions, if not billions, at their disposal, and would already have invested in automation for their industries if it is available. They have plenty of money for investment already. They do not need that extra $1.1 million they would get from the tax cut, and that money will just go into their savings accounts, with the rest of the millions/billions they are hoarding.
Meanwhile, those of us that can't afford rent/healthcare/retirement/etc. will have our benefits cut and have less to make ends meet. That same money that we would use, which would grow the economy and increase income for the vast majority by spending it on goods and services, instead will just sit in the savings accounts of the super-wealthy earning interest for them. This will further constrict economic growth and leave the rest of us struggling even more so.
Fundamentally, its sharing vs. greed. If we can all share a reasonable amount, we're all better off (which lowers crime, improves health, education, economic growth, etc). If greed is allowed to run rampant, most of us get screwed, and the few sociopaths end up with more money than they can spend in 10 lifetimes.
Meanwhile, those of us that can't afford rent/healthcare/retirement/etc. will have our benefits cut and have less to make ends meet. That same money that we would use, which would grow the economy and increase income for the vast majority by spending it on goods and services, instead will just sit in the savings accounts of the super-wealthy earning interest for them. This will further constrict economic growth and leave the rest of us struggling even more so.
Fundamentally, its sharing vs. greed. If we can all share a reasonable amount, we're all better off (which lowers crime, improves health, education, economic growth, etc). If greed is allowed to run rampant, most of us get screwed, and the few sociopaths end up with more money than they can spend in 10 lifetimes.
14
It's quite clear that Donald Trump has no grasp of macro economics. The markets may see a short-term boost, but, as predicted, the "policies" he put forth in his campaign will ultimately lead to recession, perhaps worldwide. And that recession will hurt the working classes in America most by increasing inflation and making American goods less, not more, competitive in world markets (we don't just export earth-moving equipment and airplanes). It's one thing to focus malcontent, another to address it through an improved standard of living and better jobs.
103