Is the Slide Into Tribal Politics Inevitable?

Nov 18, 2016 · 54 comments
Clare (NY)
This blog reeks of selective amnesia. Did this author not live through the past eight years of the Republicans calling President Obama a Kenyan Muslim, questioning his citizenship, and calling him "the Welfare President"? Going back before Obama, there was GHW Bush and Willie Horton, and Reagan and his "Welfare Queen." The Republicans have been appealing to white nationalism since Richard Nixon and the Southern Strategy. Donald Trump is merely the culmination of this effort to capture the votes of the Christian, white working class by pitting them against racial minorities, women, non-Christian religions and GLBT people. He and his staff are just open about it, unlike his predecessors.
To maintain that the Republican Party was about tax cuts and deregulation until Trump came along and, out of the blue, pulled it toward white ethnic resentment is at best silly and at worst completely disingenuous.
Doug Ferguson (Charleston, SC)
What slide? Partisan politics has always been tribal. I happened to read this morning about the elections of the 1890s. Very tribal.
Martha (Dryden, NY)
Wrong. Read more. There were multiple parties, with the vigorous new ones organized across philosophical and class lines, not "tribes." No one would call the Populists a "tribe" of black and white workers and farmers, men and women.
And the Republicans and Democrats were hardly "tribes." We live in an era of identity politics. That's a tribe.
Paul (Shelton, WA)
We already had 'tribal politics' in this country. 93% of the Black tribe voted Democrat. Likewise, the Latino tribe, a smaller shift but significantly above 60% rate. Who wasn't voting was the White tribe that has been savaged by the Elites of the White tribe, the so-called "cosmopolitans". Technology change, trade change, immigrants willing to work for less in non-union shops (I think we are down to 12% unionized now, excluding governmental bodies and education) and the ultimate stupidity of our business "leaders'. Trump woke up the White tribe and some of the Black, Latino and Asian tribes as well as some of the educated tribe to the basic unfairness of the past 40 years.

The business leaders of large corporations are caught up in the greed mantra of "maximize shareholder value" as if they are the only ones affected. How about community, labor, small business, general "social good" value? Completely forgot about them. I'm hoping Trump stops inversions, makes it very expensive for companies to pull up stakes for Mexico, China, et. al., so they figure out how to compete against dollar-an-hour labor, and renegotiates those treaties that crushed the middle class and even more so, the poor. The Revolution is being done with ballots this time. Next time, maybe bullets if we don't figure out how to share the wealth better in this country.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming...
Barry McKenna (USA)
"Tribal politics" implies subgroups among the two major parties. Perhaps that term is or will be useful. However, I doubt that "cosmopolitan appeals" will sound like an intelligent or useful descriptive, except for those who already identify with that cultural descriptive.

I suggest, however, that if we truly want to inspire or stimulate meaningful discourse which is actually directed at the values at risk, we are at least a century overdue in encouraging "liberals" to be--instead--referred to, in general, as "humanists," and "conservatives" as "normatives." Which is NOT to say that "humanists" are not vulnerable to adopting their own norms, nor that "normatives" are all devoid of any humanism.

Still, since many are attempting to meet their human needs and potentially support others in doing so, we could greatly benefit from our esteemed media evolving to recognize the need to discuss actual humanity and its fundamental needs as part of the "political" discourse--regardless of whatever authors or readers interpret "political" as, such as the "polis" of citizens? or would that be too radical?
Max (MA)
The greatest victory conservatives have won in this generation was reframing "equal rights for all Americans" as "identity politics", and presenting it as a cynical act of political targeting to specific interest groups instead of a fight for civil rights and equality for all disadvantaged groups.
van schayk (santa fe, nm)
Political tribalism is correlated with stagnant incomes for the majority in many developed nations. The 'rise of the rest', e.g. Asia, heralded the end of Western hegemony. Capital, being more mobile than labor, benefited from greater relative returns. The Great Recession and fiscal austerity exacerbated the situation. We are conditioned to believe that tomorrow will be better than today. When that doesn't happen for a generation, we get angry. Underlying social tensions whether based on class, ethnicity, etc. become the foci of our anger and leverage points for politicians. While we should not ignore those social issues, the best solution to easing tension would be broad based economic growth.
Geofrey Boehm (Ben Lomond, Ca)
Every analysis I have seen of why Trump won totally misses the point. He won because a lie, repeated often enough, eventually becomes accepted as truth. The main lie I am speaking of is the criminality of Hillary (and Bill) Clinton - who have been slandered by Republicans for 25 years. This sowed enough distrust (mostly among democrats who failed to vote) to tip the scales. The GOP - and most especially Trump - had NO QUALMS about consistently putting forth bald faced lies about both Hillary and Obama. Liberals, OTOH, while certainly not perfect, at least BELIEVE that truth matters. The lies about Muslims and Mexicans were insignificant - they hadn't been repeated long enough to actually change any minds.

What we are going to see in the future in America is that the party that LIES most effectively will win elections. All the talk about how the Dems should proceed in order to regain power is BS if it doesn't take this absolute fact into account.

Of course, there's still no denying that marijuana is as dangerous as heroin or that the Jews killed Christ.
Bob (F)
The best liars have been winning elections for as long as there have been elections.
Max (MA)
Please do not forget Trump-men vs. Women of this country.
Bob Jack (Winnemucca, Nv.)
Word of the Day:
KAKISTOCRACY
[kak-uh-stok-ruh-see]

Government by the worst persons; a form of government in which the worst persons are in power.

"government by the worst element of a society," coined on analogy of its opposite, aristocracy, from Greek kakistos "worst," superlative of kakos "bad" (which perhaps is related to the general IE word for "defecate;" see caco- ) + -cracy.
LolKatzen (Victoria, BC)
It seems to me that the Democrats are the ones that started the emphasis on identity politics.

Trump capitalized on the reaction to identity politics. I am a Canadian but we don't have the huge affirmative action programs. There is some help for natives, which is understandable. That's it.

I can see that descendents of slaves are also deserving of some extra help too. But why has it expanded to other ethnicities? That makes zero sense to me.

It's like the US had decided that whites are so horrid that everyone else deserves this extra help.
Wm.T.M. (Spokane)
Right. The election was about the hope and change we didn't get with Obama thanks mostly to republicans obstruction. Trump's promise was economic fairness layered over with racist drivel. As I sit watching 70,000 white people scream for the success of eleven black people playing football in Seattle, I can't help but conclude this writer needs to take his skill set to Breitbart.
Karen (New Jersey)
Seems pretty dishonest. Analysis after analysis from the liberal press about how the black and Hispanic population would soon reach such levels that democratic wins were inevitable and such phrases as, we can win without white voters. There were calls for more immigration from South America to further the trend.
AlennaM (Laurel, MD)
The media should take a lot of the blame for this, the way they covered Trump; giving him constant attention. It was like a circus, or maybe a game show of political "gotcha", with no one covering covering the serious problems facing the country. Free publicity.

As far as the Democrats are concerned, the only messages they seemed to have for rural and independent voters was that they are a bunch of "white privileged" uneducated racists. Deplorables. You say this to people and still expect them to vote for you? Elite liberals, Hollywood liberals, Wall Street liberals. Working-class whites and unions used to be the core of the Democratic party. Now they're outcasts under the epithet "white privilege". Maybe the media should have visited and polled the trailer parks of the rural Midwest and South. The Democrats need to stop dividing people with identity politics, or this rift will continue, and get worse.
PLH Crawford (Golden Valley. Minnesota)
You are so missing the point. The sad fact of the matter that most people in the USA outside of the cities spend very little time obsessing over multicultural politics except for a few wackos. They are trying to survive on their 2 to 3 jobs and wondering if they will be able to pay for their prescriptions and their rent. Middle class people,like my neighbors, are feeding their kids pasta twice again this week in order to pay their bills. You may be privileged enough to think being racist is their priority but for them, it is the economy, stupid.
Geoffrey B. Thornton (Washington, DC)
When you've lived a life of privilege, equality feels like oppression.

They've tricked low income/poor whites into believing if an African American got a job, a white person was denied a job. If an African American got a raise/promotion, a white was denied a raise/promotion. If an African American teen got into college, a white teen was denied admission, if an African American student received a scholarship, a white student was denied a scholarship.

Essentially, only whites are worthy, everyone else needed "special programs"
Geofrey Boehm (Ben Lomond, Ca)
I am continually baffled by all the assertions that this election was about the anger of "those left behind by the economy". The only people who voted for trump for economic reasons were the rich who stood to gain by lower taxes. All the rest was racism and tribalism. Disgusting that the evangelicals basically made a deal with the devil - we'll vote for you because you will create a supreme court that kills abortion. And maybe make this a Christian nation again.

The dems could easily win the next election using the same tactics, but they need to start now with the lies - it took 30 years of lies about Hillary to convince people she is evil. Tell the blacks that they are going to be registered like Jews and deported to Africa. Tell the Hispanics the same thing. It doesn't matter if there is no truth to it - there is no real news today, just made up stories. Repeat the same lies enough times and they will be believed.

This would win the election, and put the final touches on the destruction of America begun by Trump.
Winning Progressive (Philadelphia, PA)
As a matter of morality and politics, Dems must continue to fight for a socially progressive message of equality, pluralism, and opportunity, and give no quarter to the racism, xenophobia, misogyny, and homophobia that Trump, Sessions, Flynn, Bannon, etc. represent.

At the same time, Dems can and must appeal to working class voters of all races through a message of restoring economic security to the tens of millions of Americans who are harmed by our Wall Street economy. This means unrelenting opposition to GOP attempts to eviscerate Medicare, Social Security, Medicaid, overtime pay expansion, Wall Street regulation, etc. It means aggressively pushing to raise wages, restore the right to organize, and reduce student loan debt. It means pushing for a real infrastructure investment program, not Trump's phony proposal of corporate tax breaks for privatized toll roads and bridges. It means siding with average Americans over Wall Street.

Yes, Trump did well in Rust Belt communities by stirring up racism, hatred, and fear. But there are also many, many people in those places who have not given into such fear and hatred, but are desperately looking for someone to fight for them. Dems can and must reach these people by fighting for their economic security, which can be done without abandoning pluralism and equality. We must do both of those things if we are going to have a chance to rescue the sinking ship of American democracy.

https://www.facebook.com/WinningProgressive
biztsar (brooklyn)
Doubling down on ethnic minorities and cosmopolitan whites? Doubling down on rural and suburban whites worked for Trump, and which almost worked for Romney.
Betsy Herring (Edmond, OK)
Maybe the real situation was caused by a slip into too much change at one time. First we have the black President, then the gay marriage thing, transgender thing, women gaining ground and supplanting men in many areas. All this has been reflected culturally in television with men kissing on TV in damn near every show, women going after each other openly and having their own shows. It is everywhere and I think it freaked out the religious conservatives by the rapidity with which it occurred. It took 100 years for women to get the vote and now gay affairs are generally okay. This is definitely a huge backlash by the right wing nut cases. It will all shift back in time when people realize how awful we can treat one another given this atmosphere. Also the right can take their advice to the Democrats and stuff it because we were number one when Mr. Obama got elected. So stuff it.
Roger Ingram (NY,NY)
No doubt shifting voter demographics impacted the results of the election but focusing on this feature of the electorate ignores possibly the most important feedback - many of the white working class voters were more motivated to vote for change more than anything else. Unfortunately Hillary represented the opposite of change to these voters. Nevertheless, Hillary still may have won if she hadn't shifted focus to "expanding her base" to traditional red states a couple of weeks before the election and spent the time and money solidifying her blue wall in the Midwest. It would be a mistake for Democrats to write off the Midwest and less educated Whites as a result of this election. A different candidate with a message of change or a different strategy would have won them.
Ann W (Saint Louis, Mo)
Cosmopolitanism has it's faults, but ethno-nationalism is a death spiral. Let's see what happens when thoughtful liberals get determined.
In the meantime, I wish journalists would push back on the idea that Rust Belt whites are innocent victims of the post-industrial age. That's simply not true. Rust Belt whites are holding themselves back--with a divisive, angry brand of conservatism.
In 1977, the year of peak-manufacturing employment in the US, the national GDP was $9.5 trillion, with a population of 220 million. In 2016, the national GDP is $17 trillion, with a population of 310 million. The difference is that in 2016, the thriving parts of the US economy are largely based in big, liberal-minded, cosmopolitan cities. Bright, young Americans are moving to those cities in the hundreds of thousands. This election will accelerate the economic trend away from the (accurate) perception that red states are hostile states.
Syltherapy (Pennsylvania)
For those GOP voters crowing over your massive win, the margins in the rust belt were razor thin complicated by the fact that at least in Wisconsin and Michigan, it looks like Jill Stein's numbers were larger than Trump's margin of victory and in all of them, a combination of both third party candidates was way lager than his margin of victory. And let us not forget that with only 9 days to go, the FBI dropped an irresponsible bomb that likely tilted some voters away from Clinton. And finally, GOP "wins" in Congress are enabled by gerrymandered House districts that often result in GOP majority caucuses with overall Democratic voting majorities and Senate apportionment that unfairly favors small, sparsely populated white and conservative states. There are less than a million people in South Dakota while California has nearly 40 million residents yet both have the same voting power in the Senate. The media is portraying this election as a huge wave of white angry uneducated voters swamping the polls. That is far from the truth. If anything, despite the endless obsession with Clinton emails, an FBI seemingly favoring one party, Wikileaks trying to also tip the scales and the passage of discriminatory voter ID laws in several GOP controlled swing states, Trump still barely eeked out a win although my guess is that the GOP will govern like 90% of the voters agree with them. This is not a good formula for a happy, healthy and stable country. I fear we are headed for a reckoning.
Hotel al-Hamra (D.C.)
If progressives could find it in themselves to step down off their high horses and do what needs to be done, something Obama never did, it would be fairly easy to cause dissension among Trump supporters. We are talking about the least educated voters and fake news can cut both ways. No matter how pure your motives, if you bring a knife to a gun fight, you are going to lose.
Sean (Michigan)
This is a wonderful summary of our current situation. We are witnessing a freightening shift into racial identity politics, made scarier by the influences of the internet, pop culture and the loss of historical familial, religious and cultural ties. Frankly, I am scared for my children. But this article gives me some hope that we can gain perspective over our situation.
Jay (New York)
This argument papers over the real economic issues. Things are improving on the coasts and in the knowledge economy. Unemployment is down generally, but there is real economic pain and lack of opportunity in the midwest. In rural economies there are serious structural issues. Voters in these areas voted to address these issues. If the Clintons had created their foundation to focus on economic initiatives in the United States, Hillary would have been elected in MI, PA, WI, OH and possibly FL. I live in NYC where the economy is much improved since 2008, but relatives in Ohio and Michigan continue to experience diminished economic realities. I voted for HRC, some of them voted for Trump. In four years it is doubtful Trump's programs will change anything for the better. They may shift back to voting for the Democratic candidate. This time they bought vague promises of economic improvement over a perceived indifference demonstrated by the Clintons' focus on global issues (Foundation), consultants (Wall Street), speeches, and personal wealth accumulation (they were broke when they left office?). It is a disservice to the Democratic legacy to abandon the key economic issues and messages of FDR and LBJ. Hopefully Warren, Sanders, or another candidate may be a better messenger for a true Democratic economic message in 2020. Voters are still looking for hope not envelopes announcing that health insurance premiums are jumping by 20% - 70% this year.
DK (NJ)
Since day one, we have always been tribal. So why should our politic facet be any different.
Ben (Atlanta)
Not to be a contrarian but the American political coalitions have always been pliable. George W Bush's coalition was different from Obama's coalition. Trump has a very angry group of voters as his base.

I don't think that the political calculous changed all that much. This was about jobs. Just like Obama's election of 2008 was
Larry (Chazy)
Ben,
If it was about jobs, then why weren't Trump supporters chanting, We Want Jobs? No, they were screaming LOCK HER UP and BUILD THE WALL. His support and unfortunate victory has nothing to do with the economy. Using economic factors as an argument is like believing the Civil War was fought to preserve State's Rights!
Ian Maitland (Wayzata)
Brendan Nyhan is too politically correct to tell the truth. It is not Trump's victory that might push us toward a clash between an overwhelmingly white ethnic party and a cosmopolitan coalition of minority groups and college educated whites. It will be the culmination of a longstanding electoral strategy adopted by Democrats to divide and rule.

The strategy is referenced in one of the first comments. Carolannie says "The real problem for the GOP will be that their base is shrinking." Apparently not fast enough for her taste! But it has long been a mantra among Democrats that the county's demographics are changing. If I had a dollar for every time I have heard that whites will be in the minority by [fill in the blank with a date], I'd be as rich as Trump. So the Democrats have sought to exploit this shift by creating race-based entitlements (the racial pork barrel) and by sowing paranoia among minorities about white racism.

It doesn't matter whether white Americans are racist or not (99% are not), Democrats will continue to defame them as racists, because without racism Democrats have nothing to offer the country and no electoral future.

Whites did not leave the Democratic Party, the Democratic Party left them. Trump's inroads into the traditional Democratic base are hardly surprising when you consider that Democrats have made no secret that their electoral strategy is to run against whites.
Ed (Old Field, NY)
If Trump does this right, then within the next four years, the clear answer to the question will be no, but it will take some doing. There is no way he can achieve his goals that does not lift everyone in the country. If he does not do this right, it’s not Democrats he’ll have to worry about; it’s his own supporters he'll have to worry about.
FJP (Philadelphia, PA)
Not sure why Trump's rising tide would automatically have to lift all boats. At every turn there are opportunities to favor the white cadres who put him in office. His DOJ will promote and encourage racially targeted policing and back off on enforcement of fair housing laws and other civil rights issues. He will gut the CFPB leaving more low income citizens, especially minorities, vulnerable to predatory lenders. His tax policies will favor those whose income is derived from wealth over those whose income is derived from wages (and black households have far less wealth than white ones even when controlling for current wage/salary income level). I could go on and on. If economic growth were the magic potion to end racism, it would have happened already.
Charly (Salt Lake City)
I enjoyed that exercise to look at your five closest friends by party identification and education. All five of mine were white, college educated Millennials living in California or Utah. All of us are moderate to liberal, and every last one voted for Hillary.

Was genuinely shocked to see Utah play out as it did. Sad for my state, terrified for my country.
Eric (Indonesia)
I can't wait for California to slowly transform itself into a giant Barcelona.
OC1 (Elkhorn, Ca)
Barcelona? Well the viva Barca!!
Nat Irvin II (Louisville)
No question that this is a probable and troubling scenario but its not the most significant of the challenges we may face. I would argue that the far more dangerous path is the inevitable class between the rise of AI and its impact on the future of all of social conventions and at the same time the explosion of the non white American population which within one generation will could reach 240 million people. This is where our attention over the long term should focus.
Look Ahead (WA)
Seems to me that most of the Trump agenda (vs the rhetoric) favors higher skilled and higher income workers. Whether it's tax cuts weighted toward the wealthy, tax deductions for health care that favor higher tax brackets, infrastructure that favors skilled trades and engineers or deregulation that favors the corporate class, it's hard to see the benefits accruing to the unskilled and semi-skilled.

The deportation of more undocumented immigrants on top of 2 million by the Obama Administration certainly promises to open up a lot of opportunity in the shadow market of low paid day labor, as well as agriculture, restaurant and lawn care work.

But expecting factories to come back, when they left as much to create products for other global markets (half of S&P 500 revenue is generated outside the US) as to save cost on domestic sales, is hardly a good bet.

As to NAFTA, the Trump effect has devalued the peso by about 35% relative to the dollar, about 3 times more than the tariffs eliminated by NAFTA, making Mexico all the more attractive to global manufacturers.

But all of you Trump supporters, enjoy the moment! If you are already highly paid, it could get better. If not, it's back to unpaid overtime for you!
Paula (Washington)
I am a safe person. I respect and help people of any race, creed, gender, sexual orientation and gender identity that share in my respect. I will speak and bear witness when I see racist, xenophobic, misogynist, homophobic and transphobic acts of speech, political action and violence.

I do not belong to a tribe. I vote as a safe person.
Heath Quinn (Woodstock NY)
It's inevitable if we sit on our hands and maintain narrow vision. If we become active and reach out, however, bonding and understanding is what will become inevitable.
Bob (Clairton, PA)
I watch each election as "experts divide voters" in every way possible", so we will have a "Template to elections". Now as President Obama in 2008 did a America Apology World Tour when first elected he is do a post Presidency World Tour explaining he "did his best" but now we are a nation been divided into "tribes". This would cause a problem with biracialism, as it would Himself.
This may cause millions to turn to "Ancestory.com" for "tribe identification". Then there is the matter of sect and sex in that equation.
Women in every country are the majority, just look at China, and there are majorities in race and religion in every country, even in some that "require killing those who don't convert". Are we to accept this?
But in the end in this nation, the majority of the population is Caucasian, or mostly so, unless the amount of education is somehow to change our race in women, college making them somehow smarter and more valuable. If you notice the majority sect of Hispanic and African Americans is Christian as well.
So, I suggest the largest Tribe in America are white [this includes from census surveys all the middle east] African American and Latino Christians and Women.
That I suggest is a very large tribe and the one our current and President Elect fit into; unless Barack wants to exclude himself from it?
Bin GRam (Sacramento)
Agreed
This 'split and spin' must stop
Ray Hsu (California)
If politics is war by other means, and if entering the political arena requires declaring an enemy, then I hope we will choose our enemies wisely.

Let it be a battle between the Haves and the Have-nots, the 1% vs the 99%. Let it not be a battle between White vs Black, or Men vs Women.

I think it is time for our politics to focus more on issues of class.
Skip (Lexington, VA)
"Class" isn't a binary proposition, it's a spectrum. And as LBJ said, "If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you." Isn't that what politics is all about, picking our pockets?
Ryan Wei (Hong Kong)
Class will never be as important as race or ethnicity. This goes for both majorities and minorities.
bea durand (us)
The thing I find impossible to believe is how people Trump labeled as stupid (voters in Iowa) and uneducated (his supporters in general) still voted for him? Are these titles something to be proud of and worn as a badge of honor?
Bin GRam (Sacramento)
Perhaps , we took it as insult and doubled our efforts.
Bob Jack (Winnemucca, Nv.)
You know, idiots love company.
MKRotermund (Alexandria, VA)
Imagine the post-Trump elections. It will be identity politics run wild. The western Republicans will run a “Barry Goldwater” v. a “Nelson Rockefeller” from the east coast. The Barry can win nominations, but not elections. The Nelson can win elections but not a Republican nomination. Count on the Democrats not to forget the coal miners. Pray.
Eric (Indonesia)
Well people elected a person whop did not say what would be his program if he got elected. They are THAT stupid.
BillyBob (Gooseneck, WY)
Pure identity politics did not work for Hillary and should be a relic of the 20th century.

Dividing the country into identifiable groups and setting one group against others so that pandering is easier is 1970s era Democrat politics.

We must stop looking at skin color to decide what to say to someone. Americans, the collective, should be the focus, regardless of skin color.

Democrats can keep creating micro-constituencies and claiming that they will save them from oppression, but nobody is buying that divisive strategy any more. Democrats need a complete strategy refresh.
Carolannie (Boulder, CO)
I see, Trump's appeal wasn't identity politics? and since Clinton won a real majority of the votes, methinks the issue here is that sacred cow, the Electoral College, which plays absolutely no role in Congressional and state races. Turn those into blue bastions and reform the Electoral College. The real problem for the GOP will be that their base is shrinking,
Stephen Decatur (New York)
If you didn't have the the Electoral College or a first-past post system you would see a totally different election. In the House elections with all 435 seats being decided, the Republicans won by 3.6 million more votes. In the presidential election, Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party won 4.3 million votes. If it were a choice only between Trump and Clinton, Trump would have won the overwhelming majority of those votes. So the answer to the question of who the nation wanted as president is that it wasn't Trump, but it wasn't Hillary either, which we already knew. If we want to "look on the bright side" of our electoral system, we know which side had the winning strategy, and some of the most disenfranchised states got their say.
Tanaka (Southeastern PA)
It was Trump who created a constituency claiming he could save that constituency from its supposed oppression by PC people.

We can see how successful he was by the fact the KKK and American Nazi party are now boasting they have their man in the White House.