What Time Will the Presidency Be Decided?

An election guide for knowing when we will have a winner.

Comments: 84

  1. Holding everything constant from Romney/Obama, then adjusting Trump's expected results by only his underperforming in the single demographic of white college educated folks, he will lose.

    That my friends will be the theme of the night.

    Conservative estimates say Trump has up to a 1/3rd chance of winning the electoral college, but utilizing what we now know, my estimate is Clinton is very like to win (95%). Yes, white working class and Hispanic turnout are wild cards, but ultimately it is white college educated folks that will decide it.

  2. Hope that you are right!

  3. White working class and Latino turnout are huge wild cards. So is African American turnout. We know that Trump will do worse than Romney among college-educated whites, and they tend to vote no matter what. The question is whether that change, plus increased Latino turnout, will exceed 1) increased turnout among less educated white men (there are a lot of them, and many probably didn't bother to vote in 2012) and 2) decreased turnout among African Americans.

  4. You are, of course, correct that Trump has been hoping for "increased turnout among less educated white men" - the demographic that he has been targeting most aggressively. His hope was not only that voters from this demographic would turn out in large numbers for him, but that he would actually be able to inspire the sizable portion of this demographic that does not typically bother to register and vote, to do so for this election. However, that has not been the case - the number of newly registered, less educated, white male voters has remained fairly flat - probably due, at least in part, to Trump's relatively poor get-out-the-vote ground game. In contrast, the number of newly registered Hispanic voters has exploded (by about 2 million nationwide) - probably a function of both (a) Clinton's superior (and surgically precise) get-out-the-vote ground game, and (b) Trump's overt bigotry toward Hispanics, which has energized Hispanic opposition to him.

  5. There are too many people voting republican because their daddy or grandfather did. It is like the scene out of Forest Gump where Lt. Dan says “there has been a member of my family that has died in every American war” but with the republican voters it would be “members of my family have voted republican in every American presidential season”. Interestingly enough, the results of both Lt. Dan’s family and the family members who vote republican, both pretty much end with the same results. The cult of “family” passing down through the years the dysfunction all held up proudly as if it was an honor to do so. Women and children being forced to vote republican because their dominating husband or father forced them to do so. Male driven religions, Adams rib, reducing women and children to be less than whatever man has been assigned to govern them. Meanwhile what the GOP stands for is against the very needs of those women and children and in doing so is actually against any healthy man’s family.

    Women and voting age Children…break the cycle…vote your own mind…not the authoritarians.

    Liberals speak for the weak and oppressed; want change and justice, even at risk of chaos.

    Conservatives speak for institutions and traditions; want order even at the cost to those at the bottom…

    [Psychologist Jonathan Haidt studies the five moral values that form the basis of our political choices, whether we're left, right, or center]

  6. "Conservatives speak for institutions and traditions; want order even at the cost to those at the bottom…"

    Not the current crop of conservatives. It's the Ayn Rand effect: They've convinced themselves that selfishness really is a virtue: It's why they hate taxes and programs to help the sick, the young and the poor.

    They are the "Why Should I" people: "Why should I have to pay for someone else's birth control?" "Why should I have to pay to educate someone else's kids?" "Why should I care about climate change--which is a hoax, by the way."

    There's no use explaining that subsidizing birth control reduces unwanted pregnancies, resulting in fewer poor children. They don't want to hear that quality education can break the cycle of poverty and hopelessness and keep America competitive in the global economy. Don't bother arguing that climate change is already flooding cities in Florida.

    They are Objectivists, and like members of any cult, they will not tolerate heresy.

    That doesn't mean they never have doubts. They cope with doubt by working themselves into a foaming rage whenever someone challenges their world view. A lot of the anger we've seen lately is the result of people trying to stamp out the last traces of their consciences. Deep down they know they are wrong, but if Rand was wrong about one thing, maybe she was wrong about a lot of other things, and the idea of having to think it through all over again causes panic and anger.

    They need help.

  7. Why did anyone ever take Ayn Rand seriously? She was a novelist, not an economist.

  8. After reading "The Fountainhead" and "Atlas Shrugged" as a high school student in 1976 one could see that Objectivism, (the philosophy of Ayn Rand) was an elitist cult that worshipped at the altar of armoring your heart to other human being's suffering, that any oppressed being is oppressed because of their own fault. Ayn Rand escaped from Communist oppression but jumped onto an idealism of Capitalism oppression. Even as a high school junior, I could see that a society of Objectivists with calloused hearts and no empathy or compassion would be a cruel, dark, inhospitable place indeed.

  9. If what the GOP has to sell is so Great, why do they need to:

    The GOP, following the direction of Joseph Goebbels who said that by repeating a few very specific ideas and understanding the psychology of the people concerned you could make them believe that a square is in fact a circle by just using words, and words can be molded to disguise intent. The purpose of propaganda isn’t to be intellectually pleasing or to control a few mindless people but instead, conquer the broad masses. They also use the wordsmithing of Dr. Frank Luntz, who understands how to use words that insight people to act purely on emotions and without all of the facts, manipulate people to act against their own needs.

    The GOP uses gerrymandering, voter restrictions, limiting information freedoms, economic warfare defunding the country’s budget, destabilizes the country using fear tactics, provoking: racism, hyper-right religion, confederacy. Koch spending a billion in support of this collusion.

    Now they want to repeal the 19th amendment and stop women from voting.

    If all of the Democrats got out and voted every time, there would never be another United States of Soviet Republicans (USSR) politician..

  10. If you equate any modern party to the Nazis, I immediately ignore whatever else you have to say. Try to make an argument without those references.

  11. Yes, no more Nazi references. Should be a Times flag choice.

  12. A serious study of history does not allow you to ignore what you don't like.
    That's how we got here in the first place.

  13. By overwhelming majorities, some approaching 99%, Trump will win the entire Confederacy, except for Virginia, which today houses a large portion of the hated Union government; and all prairie dog states, with the sole exception of Colorado, which is distinguished by a surplus of institutions of higher learning. Clinton will take the Eastern Seaboard all the way from Maine to the Carolinas, the West (aka "Left") Coast, and the Great Lake states, wherever there is waterfront, where, throughout their history and prehistory humans have assembled and centered their cities and civilizations. Clinton wins in every state and county where the majority of voters reside within 10 miles of an institution of higher learning. The farther away people reside from a college or university, the more likely they vote Republican. We don't even need to know whether you attended college, just how far you reside from one. If we counted prairie dogs for the Electoral College, Trump would win in a landslide. It's the age-old war between urban and rural populations, going all the way back to the frictions between farmers and hunters and gatherers. Not much has changed in the past few hundred thousand years.

  14. I assure you that 99% of the voters in my beloved southeastern united states will not be voting for Trump. Not even close. He may indeed win the majority of the south, but not anywhere close to this margin that you predict. There are plenty of progressive minded individuals that live here, and while we may be outnumbered, I guarantee it's not by 99 to 1.

  15. Nothing has changed, except everything.

  16. You are literally correct about the urban - rural conflict.

    The word "pagan" comes from "paganus" one who loves in a "pagus," a rural district. It is a reflection of anti-rural prejudice, in this case of the (later) Christian Roman Empire. Those who held on to the old religions were to be considered hicks or bumpkins. The urban vs rural war goes back into the mists of antiquity.

    As a proud progressive who grew up as a farmboy, I have always been acutely aware of the prejudice and condescension of some of the urban effete. I also see how this attitude is used to incite rural people to vote against their own interests. And the war goes on.

  17. There has been a lot of media time repeating that only the uneducated are voting for Trump and the educated are voting for Hillary. This is a false statement. It is a kind of prejudice. First, there are a lot of people who just can’t afford a college degree…it didn’t make them Trump voters. They stood up to the hype about education and voted Hillary because they could see and feel what kind of person Trump really is. There are a lot of people who are vocationally trained that vote for Hillary and many of those people make more money than their academic counter parts. There are a lot of people who are comfortable with their so called “menial” jobs. For example, it was once that the most intelligent person in the US was a woman in New York whose job was a waitress in a corner cafe. She was asked why she had settled for such a job. She stated that it was because she liked doing what she was doing. It made her happy. She was making enough in her life to support her how she wanted to live. One person was discussing her academic friends how some voted Trump and some voted Hillary. The difference appeared to be between emotionally healthy and emotionally impaired. The emotionally healthy leaned toward Hillary while the emotionally impaired voted for Trump. Neuroscientist, Antonio Damasio’s work (I Feel Therefor I Am), showed that people who are impaired emotionally may do well on IQ test but make horrible choices and fail in life.

  18. I have a 140 IQ, failed in all my career choices, but found true and lasting happiness without alcohol and continuous work in recovery from "emotional impairments"—which we simple call character defects.

    Look for the bottle in most "emotionally impaired" people's lives, that's the real science of happiness—or abject misery.

  19. You are right. Everyone doesn't vote according to how educated they are, although there is certainly the trend that higher education leads to a greater depth of knowledge and a vote for Mrs. Clinton. This is true because one who read in reputable sources for years will know that Clinton is, in fact, a reasonably honest, hard working politician who has, for decades, been targeted by the smear politics of certain Republican factions.
    And, being from the working class or relatively uneducated doesn't necessarily mean one will vote for Trump. I was a waitress for fourteen years before I finished my education--it takes a while to get a Ph.D when you are a single mother and working full-time. But there is no chance, I ever would have voted for a Trump.

  20. As a retired hourly wage earner, limping by on Social Security, my heart is with Trump. But as a patriot and a true believer in human dignity and capitalism with a heart and soul, I will vote for Hillary Clinton. This election should serve as a red light warning a fire bell in the night! Most Americans are tired of a dysfunction government, a declining living standard with little prospect of getting better. Every idea is eventually corrupted, and the United States increasingly seems old tired ineffective. This is where the seeds of Revolution are planted. Trump wins he better be fantastic! Clinton wins she better be effective. We are in for a very rough four years!

  21. Thank the Tea Party and GOP for the lack of movement on any initiative that might help you. If you vote for Clinton, and also vote for Democrats for US Senate and the House, you will be giving her the votes she needs to break through the dysfunction and actually solve problems.

  22. What do you imagine Trump would do for Social Security? Trump has said he wants to cut so-called entitlements. Clinton wants to increase with inflation Did you miss out on this?

  23. Trump did not say he would cut Social Security. Time and time again he said the govt. promised the people social security that the people earned and he would not touch it.

  24. Whichever way this goes the American citizenry will lose. The American people refuse to truly consider the many great Third party political choices that are out there and choose to pick between two lap dogs of the wealthy Republicrat Establishment, in this case the Madman of Manhattan and the Witch of Wall Street, also known as Trump and Clinton. The three largest Third Party choices, on the ballots in over 40 states and thus actually capable of winning the Presdiency if enough people cared and were not brainwashed by the corporate media are: The Constitution Party headed by former Judge Darrell Castle which is a strict constructionist/real conservative party, the Green Party headed by Dr. Jill Stein which is a true liberal/leftist party, and the Libertarian Party headed by former Governor Gary Johnson which is well in a philosophy all its own. Instead the American people will be duped by one or the other of these two corrupt and greedy puppets of the 0.1% and the next four years will see simply a continuance of the last several decades now: more unwinnable and endless wars, more de-industrialization and economic decline, more mass Third World immigration and possibly amnesty for millions of illegal aliens, along with social and moral decay. The United States Empire is looking more and more like the last days of the Roman Empire every day. Hail Caesar ! The more things change the worse they get. Of all the words in tongue or pen, these are the saddest, what might have been.

  25. Rubbish. Take your despairing rhetoric elsewhere.

    Hillary will be a strong president.

  26. "Hillary Clinton will be a strong president." Strong as in having young Americans sacrifice their lives invading Syria and possibly Iran? Strong as in appointing radical judicial activists to SCOTUS? Strong as in giving amnesty to illegal aliens and open borders? Strong as in pushing through more unfair trade agreements like NAFTA and the WTO? Strong as a staunch servant of the rich and powerful in sponsoring even more financial deregulation and eventual bailouts? Strong can mean many things my friend. Assad is strong is Syria, Kim Jong Il is strong in North Korea, the Castro brothers are strong in Cuba, etc. Careful what you wish for.

  27. FYI, "The Witch of Wall Street" was not Mrs Clinton, but Hetty Green, who actually personally bailed out the city of New York in 1907. #WomenWhoMadeNewYork

  28. It's not the early vote that will count it's the late vote. A lot of election results will come in late and tip the balance either one way or the other and electoral fraud plays a big part in this. American democracy, if it really exists, is too subject to political machinations to be real democracy.

  29. Sorry, but If you think fraud is rampant in US elections, you either have no clue about how the state boards run their elections or you've been brainwashed by the alt-right media. Or both.

  30. So will Bill Clinton be known as First Man, or Gentleman?

  31. I heard a state governor (RI, I believe) say that her husband was known as First Gentleman.

  32. First Laddy.

  33. All things must pass, and this kidney stone in American history will soon be
    gone, thanks be to your God.

  34. that's rather optimistic. if trump wins well have to start building bomb shelters again and guarding against emboldened nationalistic vigilantes. if she wins prepare for Congress to waste time and money doing nothing but beat the bushes.

  35. Are you confused? It's Hillary that wants to "red lione" the Russians. A no fly zone in Syria? She's going to start a war

  36. It's going to be a long night.

    I might do what I did during the three presidential debates. With a glass of Scotch and a good book, sit somewhere far from a computer or television. Wake up when the nightmare is over.

  37. Good plan!

  38. See you in 2020.

  39. The world laughs if the US people elect, how could a liar, corruption to be the president?

  40. you just described both candidates.

  41. You are very lucky to live in a country whose politicians are neither corrupt nor liars.

  42. Sorry, Trump may be a braggart, s big mouth and bombastic but he is most definitely not a criminal like the Clintons. So If she wins how much will it cost to get what you want now? Play for Pay, the Clintons motto.

  43. Based on this info, I guarantee you Trump will not concede tonight, he will rant and rave until Clinton takes the lead in the popular vote. Even then, if that's close, we'll suffer through his rigged election claims for a while...remember, he's going to be suffering from withdrawl; he's only in this because he got addicted to being cheered in front of live crowds. Secretly he will feel relief for not actually having to go do the hard work of being president. We've learned about the mountain of documents President Obama reads every single day; no way Trump could handle that.

  44. Agreed. Perhaps, as a coward, he will shut up after his Secret Service protection runs out.

  45. Between early voting and the momentum of the last few days of the Clinton campaign, I don't foresee us having to wait until midnight to know who has won.

  46. "I hear that train a comin’
    It’s rollin’ round the bend.
    Gonna pick up Mrs. Clinton
    And take her to the pen.
    They’ll have her coronation
    Make her cell block queen
    Hillary for prison
    two thousand and sixteen
    They’ve got an orange pants suit
    Hangin’ on the wall
    And a cell for Bubba Willie
    Just a little down the hall.
    We’ll put ‘em in the big house
    Lock them up inside.
    Unless a whole lot of witnesses
    Commit suicide.
    Remember James McDougal
    And 20 or 30 more
    About to testify, they found ‘em dead upon the floor.
    Now they’re pilin’ up the bodies
    Like they did back then
    They want back in the White House
    Here we go again.
    Glue the china to the table
    Nail the table to the floor
    Lock up all the silver
    ‘fore they haul it out the door
    White trash in the White House
    Beats all I’ve ever seen.
    Hillary for prison
    two thousand and sixteen."
    DRAIN THE SWAMP----------2016

  47. New York Times: Why bother moderating comments if you are going to post rubbish like this anyway?

  48. The real crime is how many people have fallen for Trump's "lock her up" misinformation campaign.

  49. This is total nonsense - but it DOES rhyme!

  50. "The polls close in most of Florida at 7 p.m., and early vote results — which could represent 65 percent of the final vote — will come in fast. In 2012, half of the vote was counted by 8 p.m."

    Wrong! While polls close in eastern Florida at 7 p.m. Eastern Time, the Florida Panhandle is on Central Time. That means the polls close there one hour later than the rest of the state.

    The Panhandle, which includes the cities of Destin, Bonifay, Ft. Walton, Panama City, and Pensacola, account for nearly 20 percent of all Florida votes. They will not be able to call Florida until nearly 9 p.m. Eastern Time!

  51. You're correct in that the AP or any network won't call the state until 8 p.m. at the earliest, but votes will start to be counted and precincts reporting earlier, so at 8 p.m. EST analysts might be able to make a projection if there's any air between the two. However, because this is Florida, and considering the South Florida vote usually is among the last to be reported, they'll likely play it safe and wait. Nonetheless, you're correct that a projection won't be made until the last precincts close in the western part of the state.

  52. The county-by-county electoral map will tell the story. Even in red confederate strongholds like Texas and Georgia, Clinton will win in the cities along the water and around universities (Georgia Tech, LSU, Univ of Texas, within a 5-mile radius), and even in crimson red prairie dog Kansas (Univ of Kansas).

  53. Minnesota takes a long time to count its votes? Since when? Also, when was this written? Does anything think Hillary can actually still win Florida? I think she wins the presidency, but some of this analysis is questionable.

  54. If Michigan or Pennsylvania goes GOP this election you will need to get used to saying 'President Trump'.

  55. That's not going to happen. Not enough low-information voters in Pennsylvania to give Trump a victory there.

  56. Not a chance. Take a closer look at the NY Times stats before chiming in.

  57. Will Karl Rove be calling the election results from FOX News again? Because that worked really well last time.

  58. It was hilarious.

  59. He's STILL waiting for Cuyahoga County to come in.

  60. Yes, I can see him hitting the refresh button until he breaks it.

  61. Florida, Florida, Florida ( as soon as it is called for Hillary it will be over )

    8pm EST.

  62. I'm going to take a nap, skip the nightly news, and set my alarm for ten p.m., while letting Mr. Nate Cohn do all the sweat work. Then, I'm gonna say, "That's right. I called it. Hillary's gonna sink all Donald's battleships." Hoping for a fairly decisive margin.

  63. Clinton's firewall is solid, and she'll win NH, NC, and Fla.

    That's all she wrote!

  64. Current polling would show those 3 states going to Trump.

  65. not current enough; that was 2 days ago , not today

  66. What polls are those? Fivethirtyeight is giving the edge to Clinton in all three of these states!

  67. My final predictions:

    The popular vote will be very close - practically a tie. This will be due to Trump surges in red states where he already won and very low black turnout in general for Hillary.

    The swing states will all be close. There will be some, like Iowa and Ohio, that Trump wins with a clear edge; others, like New Hampshire will be too close to call; and many more such as Michigan and Colorado where Hillary will have an edge that will be just close enough to justify Trump calls for a recount and lawsuits.

    In the end, however, all this will all be irrelevant because Hillary wins Florida/Nevada by a margin that is just outside reasonable doubt. Especially Florida.

    There will still be a brief period where Trump will not concede Florida but the edge will be clear enough for Hillary that he will have to concede in end.

    The press, however, will not present it this way. Every swing state that would have gone to recount if not for Florida/Nev. will be presented as a clear victory for Hillary - despite the fact that if not for her winning Florida and Nevada it could easily end up in an overall electoral tie.

    There will be a group of Trump supporters who will continue to maintain that Florida/Nevada was lost to voter fraud. This will "backed up" by a home video of some sort. The "Florida Voter Fraud Video" will be held onto as proof of a rigged election for coming years.

    So it will be a very close race - presented by the media as a Hillary landslide.

  68. "It led Mr. Trump to tweet that Mr. Obama had won while losing the popular vote, and say that “we should have a revolution in this country.”

    Of course he did. I wonder if he tweeted the same thing when George W. Bush lost the popular vote by some 600,000 but was still awarded the presidency?

  69. Trump is a loon and a hypocrite, though to be fair ... Twitter hasn't been invented yet in 2000.

  70. I'm sure you're aware that Twitter was not around in 2000.

  71. In 2012, more than 9.4% of the vote came in AFTER 4:49 a.m. on the morning after election day (those came from absentee, provisional, and over vote/under vote ballots that have to be hand tabulated). That's 11.965 million votes, folks. Obama's margin of victory climbed from 2.2 percentage points over Romney to 3.9 percentage points.

  72. My prediction:

    This election will prove the supreme wisdom of the founding fathers (all white men, yes I know): Trump will win the popular vote, but will lose the election due to Clinton's insurmountable lead in the electoral college votes. In 2000, Gore got gored by this rule, after having won the popular vote -- after which, most national newspapers, including this one (I believe), ran stories asking whether the electoral college process should be eradicated.

  73. For the leftists/globalists sauce for the goose is never sauce for the gander.

  74. Yes, and the contested election goes to an 8-member Supreme Court, which renders a 4/4 split decision, plunging American democracy into utter chaos.

  75. I think we can wait until all the polls throughout the United States have closed before announcing how many registered Democrats/Republicans voted (in a year when party loyalties may be unreliable), delivering “exit poll” results, or calling any races based on limited reporting. It’s only a few hours’ difference anyhow, but it makes a big difference to voters.

  76. The President is not decided until December 19th, when the electoral college votes. Per archives.gov "There is no Constitutional provision or Federal law requiring Electors to vote in accordance with the popular vote in their States. Some States have such requirements."

  77. The number of times members of the electoral college have not voted in line with their legal requirement to vote in accordance with the popular vote is (so called "faithless electors) is small - 179 times in American History. To cite Wikipedia: "On 22 occasions, 179 electors have not cast their votes for President or Vice President as prescribed by the legislature of the state they represented. Of those, 71 electors changed their votes because the candidate to whom they were pledged died before the electoral ballot (1872, 1912). Two electors chose to abstain from voting for any candidate (1812, 2000).[1] The remaining 106 were changed by the elector's personal interest, or perhaps by accident. Usually, the faithless electors act alone. An exception was the 1836 election, in which all 23 Virginia electors acted together."

    That election was the only occasion when faithless electors altered the outcome of the electoral college vote. The Democrat ticket won states with 170 of the 294 electoral votes, but the 23 Virginia electors abstained in the vote for Vice President, so the Democrat candidate, Richard Mentor Johnson, got only 147 (exactly half), and was not elected. However, Johnson was instead elected Vice President by the U.S. Senate, so faithless electors have never changed the final outcome of an election.

  78. We owe Trump at least some gratitude for cleansing the political rhetoric of the three most obscene 4-letter words in American politics: Cruz, Ryan and Bush. On now to the three most obscene 5-letter words: Trump, Pence and Palin.

  79. Frontline did a nice program last night about the two candidates. Both flawed but the difference was one did it because she believed in what she was doing while the other wanted glory and to be on top. You can't be President and not be ambitious but being a woman, that was not something you do. HRC saw not path in her early years to be President as a woman so he went through Bill. Unfortunately, the charismatic persona also carried with it a lot of baggage which she has to carry to this day. Trump only wanted success, fame and control. He is narcissistic and self involved all through out his career with only looking out for #1 himself. I hope that the American people recognized the difference between ambition to lead a nation versus ambition to be #1 at any cost.

  80. lets go hillary

  81. I predict that around 3pm EST the FBI will announce it has found more of Hillary's email and, while the messages appear to be about ordering a vegetarian pizza, they still require further scrutiny.

  82. While I do NOT support either Clinton or Trump, I believe most people would choose Trump over Clinton. Only because She has lied before. What if she does it again while in the president's office? Trump may be very inconsiderate, but at least his lies are not as major as Clintons. Don't get me wrong, I want there to be a female president, but a president that I can trust, have faith in to do what ever is necessary for not only the country, but for the people too.

  83. It's going to be a joy to watch FoxNews announce Hillary the winner tonight and savor their logic for why Trump didn't.

    I still remember in 2012 Megyn Kelly responding to Carl Rowe's calculations after he persistently questioned FoxNews giving Ohio to President Obama after 73% votes were in: "Is this just math you do as a republican to make yourself feel better or is this real?"


    It's a classic moment.

  84. Not too late for Donald to get in on the stock market rally anticipating his defeat. if he actually has any money.