Oh how I'm looking forward to this election contest or game to be over in a few days! It has begun to sound like a soap opera, with a plot twist every so many days, could something happen that will change the lives of protagonists at the very last moment ...? A new tape? A new trivial "surprise"? Or a national football game, in the way people identify with their team or "party" despite what candidates say or the level of the "debate."One is blue and the other red. Totems, an elephant and a donkey. It is all very primary and tribal. Or like a contest, a competition, a reality game. That is what electoral process has become in this country--an electoral game. All spectacle and suspense.
11
I remember last year when Trump was very popular in the GOP primaries and he said something like "I wish the election was tomorrow, don't you?" As a real estate sales guy, he wanted to close the deal. And he knew it was hard to keep his act fresh for the mark (er, customer, er, voter) and if you wait until tomorrow, they may balk. Sign right here, right now.
His singular achievement as a know nothing over all the last 1.5 years was to keep his act fresh and stay within striking distance. Until the last few weeks when he could try to swoop in and steal the election. He's only a few days away from achieving that - thanks to the FBI. I don't like him but it is masterful, and scary, to watch.
The challenge for him now is getting the "hidden" white voter out to vote. His supporters are quite fickle and lazy - that's why they're unemployed. This was shown last year when he realized that before every primary, he had to emphatically remind his supporters to actually go and vote.
Can he energize these hidden white non-voters to go vote? That would be the black swan event that could swing the election to him. And it would be an amazing achievement.
It's also one that no one can predict because no matter how much the election analysts study history, it never repeats itself and so the future is always unknowable.
The entire world awaits the result.
His singular achievement as a know nothing over all the last 1.5 years was to keep his act fresh and stay within striking distance. Until the last few weeks when he could try to swoop in and steal the election. He's only a few days away from achieving that - thanks to the FBI. I don't like him but it is masterful, and scary, to watch.
The challenge for him now is getting the "hidden" white voter out to vote. His supporters are quite fickle and lazy - that's why they're unemployed. This was shown last year when he realized that before every primary, he had to emphatically remind his supporters to actually go and vote.
Can he energize these hidden white non-voters to go vote? That would be the black swan event that could swing the election to him. And it would be an amazing achievement.
It's also one that no one can predict because no matter how much the election analysts study history, it never repeats itself and so the future is always unknowable.
The entire world awaits the result.
9
According to Professor Sam Wang of Princeton, there is >99% that Clinton is going to win the election (http://election.princeton.edu/). It is over for Trump. The Democrats are going to control the senate. We are going to have a party to celibate Tuesday night!
16
Get ready for the most corrupt administration ever! Most of you that wrote a comment sound like a bunch of brainless sheep. The good news is that when WW3 starts is that New York will probably be one of the first places the Russians will nuke. So most won't be able to regret there decision to elect a traitor to the white House. Shame on all of you who voted for her. I think it really says a lot about what kind of people you are. I honestly believed that people were not stupid enough to vote for her. I dont believe Trump is our Savior one person cant save this country, but we might have had a chance to save it from the dark path that Obama started us on. The Government is supposed to work for us? The ideas laid out in the declaration of Independence are a light and the Constitution is the path, it sickens me that my brother's and sisters have given there lives for liberty; all to have a bunch of liberal sheep to elect a corrupt,war mongering,two faced, traitor as commander in chief.
7
it SHOULD be an early night--but i'm stocking up on tapas and sangiovese because 2016!
12
Please be right
20
According to all news reports - it's a nail-biter again. But is it? Regardless of which candidate you are going to vote for, and you better vote or don't complain for the next four years, it isn't close. Due to the rise of media outlets and the incessant need to compete for $$$, the media create a close election every four years. Follow the money, baby.
2012: Real Clear Politics has a toss-up days before the Obama/Romney clash. It has the electoral map at Obama 201, Romney 191. The rest of the states are toss-ups with the polls saying that Romney will win Michigan, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The results are not even close with Obama getting 332 electoral votes. Romney is still waiting for his fireworks over Boston Harbor.
2008: Not quite as applicable because the net hasn't taken over the news category yet but still interesting. Real Clear Politics has Obama with 278 sure electoral votes - a squeaker but still projected to win. He ends up with a landslide at 365 electoral votes winning most toss-up states again.
This year Real Clear Politics has Clinton at just 216 sure electoral votes and Trump with 164 sure electoral votes. Toss ups are at 158. The number of competing "news" outlets has tripled. If my thesis is correct here are the likely final results on Wednesday morning. Clinton:322 Trump:215. Oh, and if you haven't made up your mind yet, please ask your mother if she'll bring a nice tuna sandwich down to your basement room.
2012: Real Clear Politics has a toss-up days before the Obama/Romney clash. It has the electoral map at Obama 201, Romney 191. The rest of the states are toss-ups with the polls saying that Romney will win Michigan, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The results are not even close with Obama getting 332 electoral votes. Romney is still waiting for his fireworks over Boston Harbor.
2008: Not quite as applicable because the net hasn't taken over the news category yet but still interesting. Real Clear Politics has Obama with 278 sure electoral votes - a squeaker but still projected to win. He ends up with a landslide at 365 electoral votes winning most toss-up states again.
This year Real Clear Politics has Clinton at just 216 sure electoral votes and Trump with 164 sure electoral votes. Toss ups are at 158. The number of competing "news" outlets has tripled. If my thesis is correct here are the likely final results on Wednesday morning. Clinton:322 Trump:215. Oh, and if you haven't made up your mind yet, please ask your mother if she'll bring a nice tuna sandwich down to your basement room.
14
One can only hope that Americans opt for sanity over insanity. No, Clinton is not a great candidate, but Trump may as well have 666 stamped on his forehead. Both parties need to examine their qualification benchmarks for candidates. Here in Canada, you can't even sit on a community board if you have bankruptcies in your history.
33
My prediction is that Clinton wins this election in a rout. All the talk about Trump's "pathway" to victory is media hype designed to make this seem like a horse race.
Big News! Clinton is doing well in latino enclaves! Really? After Trump began his campaign by calling Mexicans rapists? What a surprise.
Big News! Clinton is doing well in latino enclaves! Really? After Trump began his campaign by calling Mexicans rapists? What a surprise.
88
Drumpf got free media coverage, yes. But, if Hillary Clinton is winning so big, why are they trying to get more money from us?
The Clintons can make a 30 minute speech for over $500k with any bank. Just have them give a few hours per day in speeches to pay for the campaign. They can continue to ignore voters and deregulate Wall Street.
Why doesn't Jimmy Carter get $500k for speeches? He negotiated peace agreements with Israel and Palestine. Well... Jimmy Carter didn't deregulate Wall Street.
The Clintons can make a 30 minute speech for over $500k with any bank. Just have them give a few hours per day in speeches to pay for the campaign. They can continue to ignore voters and deregulate Wall Street.
Why doesn't Jimmy Carter get $500k for speeches? He negotiated peace agreements with Israel and Palestine. Well... Jimmy Carter didn't deregulate Wall Street.
19
Wake up, Nate Cohn! You are reporting yesterdays news.
Trump's support is accelerating at a frightening rate. Why? Because money has just started flowing to him from some of the big Republican donors, and he is now advertising much, much more that he had been, prior to this week.
Furthermore, his performance on stage has improved. He is sounding more Presidential, and less crazy; the emphasis here should be on the word "sounding" - whatever his particular pathology is, it hasn't gone away, it's just being managed more effectively now.
Worse yet, Clinton has reverted back to her old stunt, of screaming hysterically on stage - maybe she is starting to believe that Trump is serious about sending her to jail, and she is really desperate. The one thing that mobs are really good at is smelling fear - and the American electorate is as fickle a mob, as you will find anywhere on earth.
So, it's not over until Clinton either wins, or is carried home to Chappaqua on her shield - we will know Tuesday night.
If it is, "Mr. President Trump", the liberal press will rue the day they decided to join "Club Debbie Wasserman Schultz" and tell the American people that super-delegate votes were just like "real voter" votes, and Bernie had no chance. An honest man could cut through Trump, like a hot knife through manure.
Trump's support is accelerating at a frightening rate. Why? Because money has just started flowing to him from some of the big Republican donors, and he is now advertising much, much more that he had been, prior to this week.
Furthermore, his performance on stage has improved. He is sounding more Presidential, and less crazy; the emphasis here should be on the word "sounding" - whatever his particular pathology is, it hasn't gone away, it's just being managed more effectively now.
Worse yet, Clinton has reverted back to her old stunt, of screaming hysterically on stage - maybe she is starting to believe that Trump is serious about sending her to jail, and she is really desperate. The one thing that mobs are really good at is smelling fear - and the American electorate is as fickle a mob, as you will find anywhere on earth.
So, it's not over until Clinton either wins, or is carried home to Chappaqua on her shield - we will know Tuesday night.
If it is, "Mr. President Trump", the liberal press will rue the day they decided to join "Club Debbie Wasserman Schultz" and tell the American people that super-delegate votes were just like "real voter" votes, and Bernie had no chance. An honest man could cut through Trump, like a hot knife through manure.
25
I grew up during the Cold War, when the Republicans were the party of steadfast support for the oppressed peoples of Eastern Europe. Now, our allies there are terrified of the prospect of a Trump presidency, and rightly so. Trump is at least an admirer of Vladimir Putin, and may well be in thrall to him, if not actually on the Kremlin's payroll. He is the lapdog of a hostile authoritarian regime. Any Republican who votes for him is jeopardizing the security of the United States and its allies for--what? yet another tax cut for the rich?
88
Its the day after the election that worries me.
Can either side handle a close loss?
Can either side handle a close loss?
15
Only death will keep me from voting so as to keep the proudly ignorant and dangerous Donald out of the White House.
Unfortunately, even if he loses he has stirred up the hatred of the KKK, Nazi support groups, citizen militias, and told so many documented lies about just
everything to our citizens that it will take years for our society to recover - if it ever does in our lifetimes. As it is, black churches are being vandalized as are Hispanics, American citizens from the Middle East, and so many others being vilified. Divide and conquer is his strategy.
Shame, Shame on the Republicans for putting party ahead of country!
History will record for future generations the damage the Republicans have done to our fine country, using every tactic to win - putting winning at all costs with what they know and acknowledge to be a deeply flawed candidate in Donald. What ever happened to their patriotism - sold to the Koch Bros. and others?
Unfortunately, even if he loses he has stirred up the hatred of the KKK, Nazi support groups, citizen militias, and told so many documented lies about just
everything to our citizens that it will take years for our society to recover - if it ever does in our lifetimes. As it is, black churches are being vandalized as are Hispanics, American citizens from the Middle East, and so many others being vilified. Divide and conquer is his strategy.
Shame, Shame on the Republicans for putting party ahead of country!
History will record for future generations the damage the Republicans have done to our fine country, using every tactic to win - putting winning at all costs with what they know and acknowledge to be a deeply flawed candidate in Donald. What ever happened to their patriotism - sold to the Koch Bros. and others?
94
To Bart Grossman's point below, I also believe this will be a new low point in American politics / elections as it relates to voter intimidation.
I am embarrassed that not only did my state of WI ram through Voter ID in the most punitive and mean-spirited sense, thanks to our very loyal Republican Gov. Scott Walker, but the State's AG is promising 'voter integrity monitoring' at polling places, to 'protect the rights of every voter to cast their ballot. Uh-huh. It's despicable.
The other thing that makes this such a tough one to read the outcome ... next to no signage by either side's supporters. In my host of neighboring 'bedroom' communities, signage used to be abundant (in past elections). Now, I know that just because the 3 neighbors that always support the R slate don't have signs doesn't mean they won't be voting R per usual. All will 'fall in line.' And are those people -- are are we ourselves? -- taking phone calls from research places and telling them of our voting choices. Nope.
It's all too contentious. No one wants to be overt about any of this. THAT is one already-chilling effect of Donald Trump's candidacy. Imagine how closed and shut down people -- on both sides -- would be if he wins??
And if great swaths of voters are shielding their allegiances in ways not usual or typical -- who the heck can know what the 'X' factors are and how they will turn this race?
I am in complete doubt about the outcome of this. It really could go either way.
I am embarrassed that not only did my state of WI ram through Voter ID in the most punitive and mean-spirited sense, thanks to our very loyal Republican Gov. Scott Walker, but the State's AG is promising 'voter integrity monitoring' at polling places, to 'protect the rights of every voter to cast their ballot. Uh-huh. It's despicable.
The other thing that makes this such a tough one to read the outcome ... next to no signage by either side's supporters. In my host of neighboring 'bedroom' communities, signage used to be abundant (in past elections). Now, I know that just because the 3 neighbors that always support the R slate don't have signs doesn't mean they won't be voting R per usual. All will 'fall in line.' And are those people -- are are we ourselves? -- taking phone calls from research places and telling them of our voting choices. Nope.
It's all too contentious. No one wants to be overt about any of this. THAT is one already-chilling effect of Donald Trump's candidacy. Imagine how closed and shut down people -- on both sides -- would be if he wins??
And if great swaths of voters are shielding their allegiances in ways not usual or typical -- who the heck can know what the 'X' factors are and how they will turn this race?
I am in complete doubt about the outcome of this. It really could go either way.
12
Trump wins Nevada, where the race is more in his favor than NH is according to 538.
2
What Hillary supporters fail to understand is why people support Trump. They keep thinking that because Trump is vile, irrational, and every other horrible word you can rightly throw at him, they shouldn't support him. For the vast majority of supporters it's not that he's a good or even reasonable choice, it's that he's not part of the current government. A government that has long abandoned them for large donors, corporate lobbyists and so-called trade deals. They have lost their jobs, wives, children, homes, ... and self-worth. The fact that Trump is wanting to destroy the government is simply a way to rebuild and start over. Every time Hillary talks about her years of service is just one more reason to vote against what got them to their current position.
If you not have lost a job due to free trade policies that stressed your family until it broke up, then you can't understand them. Please just have some compassion for them. If you don't, next election the candidate might be just like Trump, but bright enough to sound reasonable to the average voter.
If you not have lost a job due to free trade policies that stressed your family until it broke up, then you can't understand them. Please just have some compassion for them. If you don't, next election the candidate might be just like Trump, but bright enough to sound reasonable to the average voter.
20
So it is safe to say that Hillary has won the day while America has lost it's way in the process.
4
Oh please, God!
39
I agree with Bill Maher. We are witnessing a slow-moving, right-wing coup. And the only people guilty of rigging the election are the Republicans. Voter suppression, disinformation, clueless media, the FBI ... kiss your butts goodbye, my friends. It's over.
120
This is the first time in my life that I have sweated an election.
I was in the USAF at the first time I was eligible to vote, and voted for Eisenhower.Tthat was my first experience with the GOP. The food got worse, promotions became harder to get, what a mistake. Then there was the overthrow of the Iranian president. We all thought it was because he was a communist, were not familiar with BP and Shell.
Even so things remained on an even track politically, congress seemed to be able to get things done then. All the elections I have witnessed, the candidates were civil and cordial to each other despite ideological differences.
I did not care for several of the following presidents, but none of them caused me to feel such anxiety about them as I do at the moment. None of them were swindlers, perpetrators of fraud, misogynists, or a vulgar abuser of others.
I have to ask, what kind of society have we become when 40% of the voters denigrate, slander, propagate accusations, and listen to radio personalities spewing their hate against a lady who has spent the better part of her years helping make life better for a great many of us?
What kind of people admire and cheer on such a disreputable person like Trump? We could not find a more disgusting person to run for the office, yet he has admirers. I and several million of us joined up to keep people like him from ever gaining any influence here, and yet he has.
How did we let this happen?
I was in the USAF at the first time I was eligible to vote, and voted for Eisenhower.Tthat was my first experience with the GOP. The food got worse, promotions became harder to get, what a mistake. Then there was the overthrow of the Iranian president. We all thought it was because he was a communist, were not familiar with BP and Shell.
Even so things remained on an even track politically, congress seemed to be able to get things done then. All the elections I have witnessed, the candidates were civil and cordial to each other despite ideological differences.
I did not care for several of the following presidents, but none of them caused me to feel such anxiety about them as I do at the moment. None of them were swindlers, perpetrators of fraud, misogynists, or a vulgar abuser of others.
I have to ask, what kind of society have we become when 40% of the voters denigrate, slander, propagate accusations, and listen to radio personalities spewing their hate against a lady who has spent the better part of her years helping make life better for a great many of us?
What kind of people admire and cheer on such a disreputable person like Trump? We could not find a more disgusting person to run for the office, yet he has admirers. I and several million of us joined up to keep people like him from ever gaining any influence here, and yet he has.
How did we let this happen?
1210
I would suggest that the campaign of Mr. Trump has made a joke of the GOP.
If the party does not want to find it destined for the dustbin, it should consider enacting rules that will create barriers to entry to those who undermine all of democracy, not to mention the party's heritage. such as:
a ) requiring disclosure of the past five years' federal income tax returns by the first state primary, and
b ) disqualifying anyone who has taken more than one company into bankruptcy, and
c ) requiring any aspirant to the Presidential nomination to have served at least two years in a public service position so as to allow the media an opportunity to perform its due diligence in time to eliminate those with hidden disqualifying attributes in actions.
If the party does not want to find it destined for the dustbin, it should consider enacting rules that will create barriers to entry to those who undermine all of democracy, not to mention the party's heritage. such as:
a ) requiring disclosure of the past five years' federal income tax returns by the first state primary, and
b ) disqualifying anyone who has taken more than one company into bankruptcy, and
c ) requiring any aspirant to the Presidential nomination to have served at least two years in a public service position so as to allow the media an opportunity to perform its due diligence in time to eliminate those with hidden disqualifying attributes in actions.
470
How about a psychiatric screening too.
14
Trump has benefited from free media exposure worth untold millions, an angry voter base disinterested in his myriad flaws and extremist rhetoric, a helping hand from Vladimir Putin and WikiLeaks and an FBI Director who bowed to Republican pressure and an internal revolt among his special agents.
With all of that going for him and running against another highly unpopular opponent, and a race that has tightened as it always does, Trump is at best a dark horse.
This reaffirms my faith that, when push comes to shove, Americans ultimately vote for sanity, reject the politics of Tea Party hatred and extremism and understand that we live in a troubled world requiring a sane, steady and knowledgeable leader.
Trump has run his course, as have Giuliani, Bannon and those who party before country; the GOP is officially the party of hate and divisiveness. It's never been more true than now that you reap what you sow.
With all of that going for him and running against another highly unpopular opponent, and a race that has tightened as it always does, Trump is at best a dark horse.
This reaffirms my faith that, when push comes to shove, Americans ultimately vote for sanity, reject the politics of Tea Party hatred and extremism and understand that we live in a troubled world requiring a sane, steady and knowledgeable leader.
Trump has run his course, as have Giuliani, Bannon and those who party before country; the GOP is officially the party of hate and divisiveness. It's never been more true than now that you reap what you sow.
428
Hear Hear Robert!
14
The electoral "map" is distorted by geography to give a more equal impression than population supports. Much of the central US is desert, mountains, or agricultural lands and nearly all of it sparsely populated.
The sea of red reveals relatively lesser support, compared to blue fringe where the largest cities are.
The sea of red reveals relatively lesser support, compared to blue fringe where the largest cities are.
159
As someone watching from Australia, it never ceases to amaze me that America (a beautiful country and ally) has so many of the most brilliant minds in the world, in history, incredibly intelligent and awe inspiring people and yet also, in seemingly equal numbers, huge, juggernaut swathes of the stupidest humans imaginable.
1156
As an American who lived in Australia for years, I only which I hadn't been a kid when my family moved back to the States. I would never have willingly subjected myself to this.
I long for the short, and in comparison genteel, Australian campaigns.
I long for the short, and in comparison genteel, Australian campaigns.
18
Yes you have described our country to a tee. And the Republican party is especially adept at selling them snake oil.
30
In Nate we trust!
67
If this is what Hillary and NYT claim is solid then she has a lot to worry about!
21
Hillary is hammering Trump with her television advertising. They're on every channel, every hour. She splices together Trump sound bites, which of course, are pathetic. While I'm on the edge of my seat, as is everyone, I've got to believe that her messages are sinking in. If not, we are truly a sick nation.
313
I'd like to respectfully point out that everything he's said over the last year and a half has been played over and over yet according to the polling (and I hope it's wrong) Trump has a real shot at winning.
9
All of Canada is deeply afraid for the once exceptional republic as we see Hitler and Mossolini's successor poised to take the US into an authoritarian abyss.
The whole world is watching particularly the authoritarian regimes of Russia, China, and in Africa as they seek validation of their political systems, human rights abuses and military adventures. Relations with Canada will be irreparable once Trump tears up NAFTA by presidential decree. The consequences for markets on November 9 should he be elected will be catastrophic. Good luck to you all.
The whole world is watching particularly the authoritarian regimes of Russia, China, and in Africa as they seek validation of their political systems, human rights abuses and military adventures. Relations with Canada will be irreparable once Trump tears up NAFTA by presidential decree. The consequences for markets on November 9 should he be elected will be catastrophic. Good luck to you all.
452
Donald Trump scores very high on measures of psychopathy. If he wins, I may be moving to Vancouver. We need to believe many of the things he has said over the years. He gets revenge on those who are disloyal to him. He has a history of blaming others and taking no responsibility for his actions. This makes him more likely to scapegoat minorities, women, and immigrants.
18
Trump has the momentum and most African Americans who are voting are voting for him.
25
Don the Con needs to go to ashbin of history ASAP followed quickly by the Republican Party!
210
My only concern with Ms Clinton's chance is her womanhood which, like it or not, is negatively viewed by a lot of men who still feel women belong at home with the diapers and the dishes.
Many may disagree with this assessment, but if women do not come out to vote in large numbers and in a block for her, I think it will be a much closer election than most pundits are predicting.
Many may disagree with this assessment, but if women do not come out to vote in large numbers and in a block for her, I think it will be a much closer election than most pundits are predicting.
119
What evidence suggests that men don't vote for female candidates because of their gender?
7
I wish I could argue your point, but I can't. It is, however, long past due that American men, in general, accept women as equals.
6
Don't be so sure. A lot of us women have already voted. We know not to wait till election day in case there's an "emergency" that will keep us from the polls.
I will not be kept down any longer and there are many with the same feeling.
I will not be kept down any longer and there are many with the same feeling.
11
Sure she does Nate, little heads up , the biggest concern was that Trump supporters were keeping their vote close to their sleeve . Well, I spoke with twelve of my co- workers. Seven who were one of those who refused to tell anyone who they were voting for , basically. Saying it's non of your business. Today the y revealed who they voted.for At the court house or were mail-in 9 voted for Trump didn't see that coming 2 voted for Johnson hated both trump and Clinton 1 voted for Hillary. You really don't know the Trump supporters because they kept to themselves.
39
Yes everybody seems to be right. I doubt he'll even get the Republican nomination.
40
Republicans were the voters for the nomination. Also shows how bad the party really is.
6
Yes, Clinton will no doubt win, but in a sense we have all lost. This election has deeply stained our souls and the world knows it. We are no longer exceptional, but really we never were. We join the world as just one of many and may that prove positive in the long run.
115
Come on, Hillary. Let's get this done. I want to be in bed by 9:30 Tuesday night.
331
I will be able to go to bed at 10 pm which means you will be able to go to bed at 8 pm.
Of course, I will want to watch Secretary Clinton make her historic victory speech and see if she can get a Democratic majority in the Senate.
Of course, I will want to watch Secretary Clinton make her historic victory speech and see if she can get a Democratic majority in the Senate.
14
New Hampshire has a lot of college graduates and a lot of college students for a state its size. There's a ton of organization for get out the vote efforts for Clinton, especially when compared to Trump. I doubt it will be the only New England state to go red.
38
Mrs. Clinton is in fact running TV ads here in New Mexico.
26
Too many [polls, too many methods, too many results.
Trump must snatch a blue state.
Ain't going to happen.
Trump must snatch a blue state.
Ain't going to happen.
53
He's taking campaign donations and paying himself back for travel.
118
There is something truly amiss in this being so close a race.
That many Americans feel shafted by their leaders or_actually_their controllers, that they'd risk (in their minds a hijacked) democratic republic for a would be fascist is telling.
Some are fooled that Trump is different and cares about them, which would be true if he were Sen. Sanders; Trump has gotten away with surface charm that hides something rapacious underneath.
Get. Out. The. Vote.
That many Americans feel shafted by their leaders or_actually_their controllers, that they'd risk (in their minds a hijacked) democratic republic for a would be fascist is telling.
Some are fooled that Trump is different and cares about them, which would be true if he were Sen. Sanders; Trump has gotten away with surface charm that hides something rapacious underneath.
Get. Out. The. Vote.
129
Trump is just trolling for his Nazi magic and depending on henchmen Lewandowski and Giuliani. Trump is our lowest nature squared. He will destroy America if he can. Take down NATO. Steal hand over fist any cash he can get his hands on. Trolls have been gaming live polls for Trump this whole cycle. This is part of the Putin Puppet regimen.
178
Yes, once you destroy an the Old World Order, you are supposed to have a New World Order to replace it with. In this case, there is nothing to replace it with except Trump and Putin, not USA and Russia leading to a new social contract, but Trump and Putin. Perhaps Mr. Trump fantasizes himself and Pres. Putin as something out of the old WCW/WWE story line. If that's the case, then this is further evidence that he and his core supporters can't see the difference between fiction and reality. This is the real world you are staging your melodrama in, Mr. Trump. The set is earth and the actors whose fate you alone want to decide, everyone on it. To view the presidency as a position of such power is not consistent with our long-held ideals. To take such a responsibility frivolously and selfishly, as you do, is an act of infamy, even if you lose and never see the inside of the White House again.
5
People of the (not so) United states of America will lose no matter who wins. The controversies will not go away. Atleast Obama was less prone to blunders as Clinton is and if she wins, they will not let her rule. So folks, 4 more years of fighting in the senate. If Trump wins, I cannot say because I do not know what he plans to do. But an increased racism is for sure.
36
I think there is an outside chance that Trump will win, perhaps with a comfortable margin.
I think that some white people are afraid that their answers may make pollsters think they are hostile to people of color. They are afraid that if they tell the pollster they are for Trump, the pollster will conclude they are bigots. Some whites are afraid that the pollster will retaliate against them. This might sound paranoid, but believe me: Many people are very afraid.
Cases In Point: In 1989, the Democratic candidate in the Virginia Governor's race, Doug Wilder, was black. Polls said he was about 18 points ahead. He won, but he won by a sliver. Some whites, I think, thought pollsters would think they were anti-black if they said they liked the Republican.
In 1989, and in 1993, Dinkins (black) contested Guilini (white) in the New York's Mayoral race. In both races Dinkins' numbers in the polls were better than his numbers on election day. (Incidentally, in 89, Dinkins won; in 93, Guiliani won.)
Of course, Hillary is not black. But Trump is identified with racism and Hillary has clung to Obama throughout this campaign.
Obama has gone to North Carolina on several occasions to boost Clinton's black vote. I wonder how many whites resent this and feel more compelled to vote for Trump.
I think that some white people are afraid that their answers may make pollsters think they are hostile to people of color. They are afraid that if they tell the pollster they are for Trump, the pollster will conclude they are bigots. Some whites are afraid that the pollster will retaliate against them. This might sound paranoid, but believe me: Many people are very afraid.
Cases In Point: In 1989, the Democratic candidate in the Virginia Governor's race, Doug Wilder, was black. Polls said he was about 18 points ahead. He won, but he won by a sliver. Some whites, I think, thought pollsters would think they were anti-black if they said they liked the Republican.
In 1989, and in 1993, Dinkins (black) contested Guilini (white) in the New York's Mayoral race. In both races Dinkins' numbers in the polls were better than his numbers on election day. (Incidentally, in 89, Dinkins won; in 93, Guiliani won.)
Of course, Hillary is not black. But Trump is identified with racism and Hillary has clung to Obama throughout this campaign.
Obama has gone to North Carolina on several occasions to boost Clinton's black vote. I wonder how many whites resent this and feel more compelled to vote for Trump.
16
This has more to do about gender than race. Men in general will not vote for a woman in large numbers, especially a corrupt one. There goes the white privilege trope. Trump wins comfortably.
12
hogwash, the deplorables are not afraid of anyone thinking anything of them.... Trumpf brainwashed them into thinking they have balls. trumpf is going to lose, make no mistake about it, just by how much is the question.
8
NO body can win the presidency with less than 26 % of the african american vote..... the math just is not there and that is fact. There are not enough white people to overcome the need for the black vote or the latino vote.... stop kidding yourselves and look at the math.... math don't lie.
9
Imagine if Hillary were to win the electoral college but loose the popular vote. A statistically remote possibility, sure, but interesting as a thought exercise. Certainly, Republicans, who were already prepared to treat her Presidency as illegitimate (as they have with Obama, despite his having won overwhelming popular and electoral victories). Forget impeachment - they would maintain that she should not be allowed to take the oath of office in the first place. Now, imagine what their reactions will be like if Trump wins the electoral college but looses the popular vote. Bet it would be quite a contrast.
17
You know, your 'thought exercise' actually happened in 2000, a mere sixteen years ago. Google "Gore wins the popular vote".
6
The Republicans will have to live with it, just as Democrats had to live with Gore winning the popular vote when Bush won the electoral college vote. It happens.
8
Isn't that what happened in 2001? Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college because of the Florida recount?
Yeah, it would be quite a contrast for Trump voters. Republicans would declare that this is a republic, not a democracy, and the electoral college kept it that way!
Yeah, it would be quite a contrast for Trump voters. Republicans would declare that this is a republic, not a democracy, and the electoral college kept it that way!
1
I really don't like the 275-263 map accompanying this article. Donald has already strongly hinted that he won't concede if the outcome shows him losing. I'd like to see Mrs. Clinton win one more ex-Confederate state besides Virginia. President Obama won 3 of those 11 states in 2008 and then 2 in 2012.
On the other hand, I suppose it should be strongly emphasized that under no circumstances should any words coming out of Donald's dirty mouth have the impact of undermining the validity and legitimacy of a clean victory by Clinton that does have her winning by a margin of 275-263 in the EC.
On the other hand, I suppose it should be strongly emphasized that under no circumstances should any words coming out of Donald's dirty mouth have the impact of undermining the validity and legitimacy of a clean victory by Clinton that does have her winning by a margin of 275-263 in the EC.
55
Very painful, like the promise of McCain and others to block anything she does. Even the Newt once said that "shouting 'no' is not a policy."
3
When I graduated high school in 1980, on Long Island, 30% of the class went on to college. In Fairfax County, VA today, nearly 90% of graduates go on to college. It's easy to see how how those without higher education could be successful in the '60's, 70's, 80's and 90's.
But the game has changed in a very short period of time. The automotive industry has largely left for Asia and Europe. The electronics industry too. Made in Japan, or China, used to be a joke. Now they make you Lexus and your iPhone. More recently, professional services have left for India and China, among others. So it's easy to see how many people, having been left behind, now identify with Trump's empty promised to "Make America Great Again", although God knows what that means.
Trump is an easy, empty solution for people who have nowhere else to turn. God help us all if he wins on Tuesday.
But the game has changed in a very short period of time. The automotive industry has largely left for Asia and Europe. The electronics industry too. Made in Japan, or China, used to be a joke. Now they make you Lexus and your iPhone. More recently, professional services have left for India and China, among others. So it's easy to see how many people, having been left behind, now identify with Trump's empty promised to "Make America Great Again", although God knows what that means.
Trump is an easy, empty solution for people who have nowhere else to turn. God help us all if he wins on Tuesday.
191
Your statement is valid, but you didn't offer the counter - if all those jobs and skillsets are leaving, what's left for those 90% going to college? You, almost, invalidated your own point of view.
3
As Trump has gained some ground recently, the Dow Jones average has declined for 9 consecutive days. It's the first time that has happened since 1980. Apparently, the markets are fearful of a Trump presidency. Is this the candidate who will fix the American economy? Just the thought of a Trump presidency has sent the market downward.
339
Your logic is bad. By that same line of thinking, I could say the Cubs went to the World Series, and the stock market is down for 9 consecutive days, so therefore the Cubs have sent the market downward. There is no evidence to either correlation other than your own bias
3
Market declines on uncertainty, it began to decline with Comey's letter.
20
So having a non-Hillary, non-Trump result for President 2016 comes down to Florida and Utah (with a little help from the House)...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_p...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/create_your_own_p...
5
Trump certainly has momentum on his side as many Republicans (this one not included) have come back to him. I have long felt this will be a 'coin toss' election and may go either way depending on New Hampshire.
12
NH has only 4 electoral votes. No matter how it's thought of as a linchpin for the Presidency, it is not. For the Senate, that may be a different story. I remain confident that the Republicans who wouldn't have bought into one or another of Mr. Trump's scams would not come back to him and hopefully they haven't.
8
This is what I find interesting too. Clinton is ahead, but looking at the state trending on 538 and RCP, Clinton is dipping while Trump is gaining. BRExit had a similar trend, a steady uptick of those who wanted to "leave".
3
How do you possibly come up with the Clinton having an 85% chance of victory? Your own poll summary shows Nevada tied. Trump is also doing well in Maine. Winning one vote there and NV gives him 270. How is this a solid lead for Clinton?
20
Exactly. In RCP, if we put all leads of Trump as wins, he will lose only because he is trailing in Florida now. If he wins that state and wins all the stats he is currently leading, he can be President.
6
Your scenario relies on about 8 other unlikely things happening; together their chances of happening are quite low.
21
Did you read the article?
2
Unless Clinton voters turn out in surprisingly high numbers, get used to the phrase "President Trump". The prediction of a supposedly solid electoral lead for Clinton would be erased by as little as the loss of Nevada. Fivethirtyeight predicts a Trump win in Nevada.
I have been predicting doom since the start of this year. At every turn, NYT commentors have said things could not possibly go that badly. I think we are witnessing the fall of a first domino, and human civilization will never be the same. This will go down as the most terrible of years.
I have been predicting doom since the start of this year. At every turn, NYT commentors have said things could not possibly go that badly. I think we are witnessing the fall of a first domino, and human civilization will never be the same. This will go down as the most terrible of years.
34
The Princeton Election Consortium last evening predicted a 99% chance of Clinton winning. If that still puts a scare into you, know that there is no such thing as a 100% chance.
7
So you are a "glass half empty" sort of person, right?
4
I predict if Trump wins, it will be a one-term presidency. I also predict that after four years of Trump, the pendulum will swing seriously left, and an unabashed liberal will win the WH.
1
I worry about Pennsylvania. In Philadelphia our public trans - buses, trolleys, subways, and El - are on strike. There is no early voting in Philadelphia, so all those people struggling to get to and from work will also have to vote between 7:00 a.m. and 8:00 p.m. If you are in the door of your polling place by 8:00, you will get to vote, but the doors close at 8:00 sharp.
Philadelphia's suburbs have gotten more and more Democratic in this century, but many suburbanites work in the city and commute by light rail. Those commuters may have a hard time getting home to vote when their trains are bogged down with many more passengers than usual.
Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Erie, and a few other pockets of urbanization can carry Pennsylvania for Hillary. Keep your fingers crossed for Philadelphia.
Philadelphia's suburbs have gotten more and more Democratic in this century, but many suburbanites work in the city and commute by light rail. Those commuters may have a hard time getting home to vote when their trains are bogged down with many more passengers than usual.
Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Erie, and a few other pockets of urbanization can carry Pennsylvania for Hillary. Keep your fingers crossed for Philadelphia.
116
Fingers and toes crossed!
2
I guess a lot of people will be calling in sick, but it seems like there should be a truce in the strike until after the election. It also seems ridiculous not to have early voting in a large city with a lot of commuters; even without a strike it must be a bit hectic trying to vote if you're a commuter.
4
This disgusting man must not go anywhere near the White House. I will be voting for Hillary on Tuesday.
198
Are we going to see a repeat of Truman/Dewey in 1948 ?
Probably not unless an enormous percentage of Trump supporters
turn out and a large percentage of Hillary people stay home.
What is more important is why so millions supported Trump.
Probably not unless an enormous percentage of Trump supporters
turn out and a large percentage of Hillary people stay home.
What is more important is why so millions supported Trump.
40
For me, as a non-Hillary voter, it's this: I've grown tired of being called a racist if I disagreed with President Obama - even if my disagreement was valid. (Not a racist by those who know me, but by complete strangers who have no idea what's in my heart). I've grown tired of identity/social media politics - where people are more interested in "firsts", "who said what"' and "elitism". Tired of devisive statements from our political leaders. Biden: "gonna put you back in chains.." Reid: "Romeny didn't pay taxes..", then he admitted he lied. President Obama to McClain, "elections have consequences." In the above, I dog Trump for every stupid thing he has said as well.
But recently articles on Time, Newsweek, and RCP show where this is heading. If I have a disagreement with a President H. Clinton, those who don't know me are going to shout "Sexism". It's just getting so old, isn't it?
But recently articles on Time, Newsweek, and RCP show where this is heading. If I have a disagreement with a President H. Clinton, those who don't know me are going to shout "Sexism". It's just getting so old, isn't it?
3
The irony of it all: Hispanic voters may be all that stands between us and American oblivion under Donald Trump.
The not at all 'silent majority,' which is fast becoming a loud and ever more vulgar minority, may be too dumb not to shoot itself in the foot; but those Mexican, Puerto Rican, Haitian, Honduran, Dominican, Cuban and other Hispanic 'criminals and rapists' ain't near stupid enough to ignore the threat to democracy and working people named Donald J. Trump.
The not at all 'silent majority,' which is fast becoming a loud and ever more vulgar minority, may be too dumb not to shoot itself in the foot; but those Mexican, Puerto Rican, Haitian, Honduran, Dominican, Cuban and other Hispanic 'criminals and rapists' ain't near stupid enough to ignore the threat to democracy and working people named Donald J. Trump.
229
This voter plans to drive all the way to NH to get out the vote on Tuesday. Note: I have Never, ever done anything of the sort before this. 646 854 1432
68
Yeah, I'm doing the phone bank thing tomorrow for several hours. It's only the second time in my life I've gone this far for a candidate.
7
I sure hope Mr. Cohn is right, though the only poll which really counts is the big one on Tuesday. The emphasis on Clinton's appeal to minority voters (which not only Mr. Cohn but every other commentator keeps overemphasizing) ignores the fact that there is also a majority category with a strong preference for her: like it or not, there are more women than men in this country, especially of a voting age. Of course, not all women are on her side. I just spoke to one this evening whom I strongly suspect will vote for Trump, even though she's too polite to tell me. So fer gosh sakes, don't let anybody take this one for granted. Get out there and VOTE, all you Clinton supporters!
97
Fyi Breitbart news/gravis, is not a real poll.
28
I'm not a baseball fan, but an unexpected delight of the Cubs winning is that we have had no discussion or interest in the election since Wednesday
Hurray!
Hurray!
25
Originally from Chicago, I know what you're saying, but Earth to Paul and All, please vote Democratic on Tuesday!
6
Lucky folks. :) Congratulations!
3
Trump will win Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina and Florida, it is easy to figure out the rest. Trump will do 5% better on election night than the polls indicate and the exit polls will indicate because of voter fear.
18
No, he won't. Trump has pretty much no chance. He would have to "run the table" of battleground states, most of which he is behind in. And it won't be close. Expect Hillary to attain between 290 and 350 electoral votes.
65
You have delusions of grandeur. Michigan hasn't gone red for a Potus since '88. And it hasn't polled +Trump this whole cycle. Same for PA, despite it's status as a swingy state it continues to go blue by a decent margin every Presidential election.
5
I think there are many more "shy voters" for Hillary than for Trump. Trump supporters have been very aggressive; I find it hard to believe that they are worried how they would sound to pollsters.
9
This is not the time for complacency NYT. Anything can happen. We have 3 days to go and like President Obama said "there is business to take care of" which means volunteer for phone bank, knock on doors, help your friends and neighbors so they can vote, babysit, drive, do whatever you can. Vote blue!!' Good luck all my fellow Americans. #imwithher
90
The only chance he has left is voter intimidation and the Republicansa re going to give it everything they've got.
50
I voted for Hillary because she is stable,prudent and incredibly smart. Although she is a moderate, believe she will dedicate herself to work for children and families and will use diplomacy to solve problems. Yes, I would like change,but I don't want chaos.
242
Please, please let this be right and true.
61
We will see how accurate this article is when Podesta's email is leaked in two days.
5
While it is reassuring to read that she has a good chance of winning, I am still wondering if she will win with enough of a mandate to swing the Senate and House blue. We have wasted so many years of opportunities with the current obstructionists in Congress, and have been going down a dangerous road as a result of a Supreme Court that gave us Citizens United.
We really need to drain the Congressional swamp so that progress can be made again, and this goal is every bit as important as keeping Trump out of the White House.
We really need to drain the Congressional swamp so that progress can be made again, and this goal is every bit as important as keeping Trump out of the White House.
266
Very doubtful we could win back the house. It took several election cycles to get this far in the hole and it will doubtless take a few to dig our way out.
As for the Senate, the best aggregate election poll sites show that we will at least get to 50/50 which is good for Dems because our new VP, Kaine, will be the tie-breaker vote. However, Clinton is polling so well in Nevada that we may win that close race too. We could get as many as 52 seats if we're really lucky and she wins bigger than the safe margins the pollsters are showing.
As for the Senate, the best aggregate election poll sites show that we will at least get to 50/50 which is good for Dems because our new VP, Kaine, will be the tie-breaker vote. However, Clinton is polling so well in Nevada that we may win that close race too. We could get as many as 52 seats if we're really lucky and she wins bigger than the safe margins the pollsters are showing.
5
But will the Democrats win the Senate?
If they don't, we're in for four more years of obstructionism and kicking the can down the road on a long list of issues that could use some honest and workmanlike attention from the Gov't.
I gather that rural voters feel that, on economic matters the Democrats are not much better than the Republicans. Once they conclude that, it's easy to vote on the wedge social issues that the GOP uses to get them to vote against their economic interests. Dems need to fix their economic programme to help lower middle class folks in ways that are obvious and understandable. Fight publicly and repeatedly on these issues!
Health care could be part of that, but the Dems compromised to much with Repubs on letting high drug costs stand, not to mention keeping our byzantine private insurance marketplace, only with some new wrinkles. Then after wringing inferior policy out of the Dems, the Repubs have relentlessly attacked the law. I think the depth of the rancor over that law is a tip that health care really is a place the Dems could do some good.
If they don't, we're in for four more years of obstructionism and kicking the can down the road on a long list of issues that could use some honest and workmanlike attention from the Gov't.
I gather that rural voters feel that, on economic matters the Democrats are not much better than the Republicans. Once they conclude that, it's easy to vote on the wedge social issues that the GOP uses to get them to vote against their economic interests. Dems need to fix their economic programme to help lower middle class folks in ways that are obvious and understandable. Fight publicly and repeatedly on these issues!
Health care could be part of that, but the Dems compromised to much with Repubs on letting high drug costs stand, not to mention keeping our byzantine private insurance marketplace, only with some new wrinkles. Then after wringing inferior policy out of the Dems, the Repubs have relentlessly attacked the law. I think the depth of the rancor over that law is a tip that health care really is a place the Dems could do some good.
110
Looking at some of the more reputable aggregate election polling sites (NYTimes, Real Clear Politics, 270towin, etc.) it looks like we are assured of at least a 50/50 outcome, which is really a win for Dems as Kaine will be the tie-breaker. But given how great Clinton is polling in Nevada, I think we will probably win that Senate race too and be up as much as 1 or 2 more seats. We'll know soon...
36
Yes, I've been confused by the R team's campaigning in places where they will never be able to win. One reason is that the Trump campaign pays for its stuff to Trump companies, so he's profiting while losing. Plus he can go on, with his entourage, to a subscription website spewing his junk that requires little to no financial investment on his part. The real loser is Pence, whose political life is over--a mindless right-winger no one will miss.
138
Trump has to campaign in "Democratic" states. Given that Colorado and Virginia have trended blue, along with their 22 electoral votes, he can't get to 270 without winning Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, and either Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or New Hampshire and the Maine 2nd. Based on early voting in Nevada, John Rawlson, believes a Trump win in that states is already foreclosed. If so, then Trump needs Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, New Hampshire and the Maine 2nd. Since Pennsylvania is a stretch for Trump, he must campaign in Wisconsin and Michigan in order to have any shot at winning.
17
Early polling in Nevada shows a Clinton win, actually.
10
I wouldn't write Pence off so soon. He puts a sane kindly-dad face on religious fascism in a way Cruz and the like can't at all manage. As Reagan proved, that kind of talent can be political gold. It's a good chance he'll be back as a presidential candidate unfortunately.
5
I hope that Nate Cohn is right. Most sites predict Clinton with >>270 electoral votes. What is remarkable is that Trump's support is as great as it is.
He has broader support in my mind is because of the abject failure of the US media to aggressively confront him. I mostly mean television/news media outlets because so few people read. They have failed to reveal his lack of policy credentials, his sophomoric understanding of world affairs, to dissect in detail and reveal the unsoundness of what few policies he has put forth, to challenge his lack of substance and his total unfitness to lead a major country.
To be sure, there are nativists who would support Trump in spite of overwhelming unfitness for the job and regardless of sound reason. But far too many people have had their standards systematically lowered by biased news coverage (mostly for-profit and fixated on gaining revenue) that fails to aggressively challenge Trump and reveal every misstatement and lie that he makes. Of course, Clinton should be held to the same standard but she would emerge as the only qualified candidate under this type of scrutiny.
My wife is Swedish. She tells me that the Swedish media would have ripped him apart 12 months ago. Yesterday, Dagens Nyheter - the major Swedish newspaper - had a front page story on how the US media has totally failed in their responsibility to educate the public and confront Trump.
He has broader support in my mind is because of the abject failure of the US media to aggressively confront him. I mostly mean television/news media outlets because so few people read. They have failed to reveal his lack of policy credentials, his sophomoric understanding of world affairs, to dissect in detail and reveal the unsoundness of what few policies he has put forth, to challenge his lack of substance and his total unfitness to lead a major country.
To be sure, there are nativists who would support Trump in spite of overwhelming unfitness for the job and regardless of sound reason. But far too many people have had their standards systematically lowered by biased news coverage (mostly for-profit and fixated on gaining revenue) that fails to aggressively challenge Trump and reveal every misstatement and lie that he makes. Of course, Clinton should be held to the same standard but she would emerge as the only qualified candidate under this type of scrutiny.
My wife is Swedish. She tells me that the Swedish media would have ripped him apart 12 months ago. Yesterday, Dagens Nyheter - the major Swedish newspaper - had a front page story on how the US media has totally failed in their responsibility to educate the public and confront Trump.
762
If only that were true. Trump is a huckster, an old-school snake-oil salesman. He used that talent to tap into a coalition of those who hate Obama (some for his policies, many for his skin color), those who hate Hillary and whites who can't accept that, in their minds, the country is being stolen from them. (Obviously there's a big overlap between those groups.) These folks just want someone who will say eff-you to the current power structure and the rest of the world to turn back the clock to an America that never was. They simply ignore or reject any criticism of their messiah. And Sweden's current immigration crisis shows it is doing no better dealing with similar hate speech and it could have its own Donald Trump in the not-to-distant future.
39
There's no political advertising on Swedish TV, hence no big money generated by Swedish political campaigns. Moreover, PM candidates all have to work their way up, as it were, through their respective political parties. Comparing Swedish politics (a small nation ... Sverige är ju ett litet land) to the US is comparing apples and oranges, a pointless exercise.
5
I agree with everything except the argument that the Swedish press would have torn apart a similar candidate, were he Swedish. The far-right party now holds 13% of Sweden's Parliament. That's terrifying.
Trump, Sweden's far-right party Sverige Democraterna, Marine Le Pen in France, Pegida in Germany...these are all right-wing, nationalist, racist, xenophobic parties of the same ilk.
Trump, Sweden's far-right party Sverige Democraterna, Marine Le Pen in France, Pegida in Germany...these are all right-wing, nationalist, racist, xenophobic parties of the same ilk.
22
Though the deep hue of blue might color my view (in CA) I've felt all year long that the polls are artificially suppressing Clinton's lead: the right-leaning pollsters need to keep dismay at bay and the left-leaning ones need to keep the soldiers rallied. The same thing happened in 2012, when for the same reasons I never wavered from a comfortable Obama lead. Based upon these oh-so-analytic assumptions, it's Clinton by 185 electors. This should stay up long enough for anyone to take a swing at me if I'm wrong on Tuesday.
81
Lord, hear this man...!
34
From your lips to God's ears, sir
3
Over the past year I was treated for a heart attack and had subsequent procedures and examinations at the University of California-San Diego Health System. I would estimate that 80% of those I have encountered there, orderlies to surgeons, are not White. When will citizens wake up to the fact that we are a very diverse country and put aside the White privilege expectations?
428
"It [Colorado] has one of the best-educated populations in the country, along with a large Hispanic population."
And Sec. Clinton is expected to win.
Wonderful.
If Donald Trump could only dumb down enough of the American electorate between now and Tuesday, he might have a shot at winning.
Sorry, Donny, you can't fool all of the people, or a majority of them, all of the time.
And Sec. Clinton is expected to win.
Wonderful.
If Donald Trump could only dumb down enough of the American electorate between now and Tuesday, he might have a shot at winning.
Sorry, Donny, you can't fool all of the people, or a majority of them, all of the time.
145
Recipe for a really bad election:
Mix together:
One (1) first African-American President
One (1) hyper-partisan major news media cable channel
One (1) first woman presidential candidate
One (1) demagogue
Add talk radio and internet conspiracy theories to taste
Stir, and do not enjoy.
Mix together:
One (1) first African-American President
One (1) hyper-partisan major news media cable channel
One (1) first woman presidential candidate
One (1) demagogue
Add talk radio and internet conspiracy theories to taste
Stir, and do not enjoy.
267
The Democrats have been pandering to the minority vote - Latinos and blacks - essentially promising goodies at the expense of the (largely white blue collar) electorate. This can only polarize the country further.
28
The Republicans have been pandering to the white vote--specifically the blue collar, lightly educated white working class--promising goodies at the expense of the non-white electorate. This can only polarize the country further.
261
Yet in reality, whites are the greatest beneficiaries of government largesse, including hundreds of billions in farm subsidies, which dwarf directly financial aid to minorities. And which states are the predominant beneficiaries of federal government spending? Not those with large urban minorities.
360
The Republicans have been pandering to the NRA, the KKK and the alt Right folks.
53
I agree with Nate Cohn's conclusion that a Clinton win is highly probable, but I'm still underwhelmed by his reportage, as I've been since 2015.
I notice that much of Cohn's analysis in this column relies on live polls (that is, live interviews versus online polls). The problem with this approach is that Trump tends to poll better in online polls, especially among likely voters.
Were Clinton's lead substantial or widening, Cohn's heavy reliance on live polls would probably make no difference. But as Cohn notes, the presidential contest has narrowed recently, making a heavy analytic reliance on live polls suspect.
This column illustrates my ongoing problem with Cohn: he often resorts to less than fully persuasive data or reasoning to make his case, even when better data are available.
For example, I am a fan of Princeton Election Consortium, which predicts the outcome of the presidential race exclusively on the basis of state-level polls, the better to mirror Electoral College results. As of the evening of Saturday, November 5, PEC is predicting a solid Clinton win of 312 electoral votes, based on the aggregation of 220 state polls.
I notice that much of Cohn's analysis in this column relies on live polls (that is, live interviews versus online polls). The problem with this approach is that Trump tends to poll better in online polls, especially among likely voters.
Were Clinton's lead substantial or widening, Cohn's heavy reliance on live polls would probably make no difference. But as Cohn notes, the presidential contest has narrowed recently, making a heavy analytic reliance on live polls suspect.
This column illustrates my ongoing problem with Cohn: he often resorts to less than fully persuasive data or reasoning to make his case, even when better data are available.
For example, I am a fan of Princeton Election Consortium, which predicts the outcome of the presidential race exclusively on the basis of state-level polls, the better to mirror Electoral College results. As of the evening of Saturday, November 5, PEC is predicting a solid Clinton win of 312 electoral votes, based on the aggregation of 220 state polls.
113
Of course Cohn is relying on live interview polls, because they are the gold standard in the polling industry. The polls you advocate using are the ones that are methodologically suspect. For that reason, data modeler's like Cohn and Nate Silver take into account the polling source and methodology used to conduct the poll before inputting that data into their models.
51
The PEC methodology is statistically sound and only depends on having a fair number of current polls. By using the median for each state, outliers have less influence. The statistical calculation is very easy to understand and very straightforward. Complex models such as 538's, where interactions between states (which may already be included in current polling) are artificially added, and have questionable predictive value, give rise to meaningless volatility and noise.
13
So long as Clinton wins.
23
Unfortunately the polls don't mean much. They have been weighted for Hillary and only until recently have they lessened the bias, but it shows Trump neck and neck with her. I have a feeling that Trump is going to easily pass 270, probably 290+, it won't even be close.
13
This is an absurd statement ("only recently have [the polls] lessened the bias") unless you're saying that the pollsters have changed their statistical sampling methodology in the last couple of weeks. I'm not aware that this is the case. It seems more likely that polls are measuring an actual upsurge of people willing to say they're voting for Trump as the embarrassment of the groping video fades.
There are many reasons that polls are imperfect measurements, but if you think Trump will win in a landslide of more than 290 electoral votes, you're in for the kind of disappointment Karl Rove felt when he had to face electoral reality in 2012. Odds are Trump won't win, but if he does, the margin of victory will be slim.
There are many reasons that polls are imperfect measurements, but if you think Trump will win in a landslide of more than 290 electoral votes, you're in for the kind of disappointment Karl Rove felt when he had to face electoral reality in 2012. Odds are Trump won't win, but if he does, the margin of victory will be slim.
48
In every presidential election since 2004, statistically sound polling aggregation has correctly predicted the winner, often even the exact split of electoral votes. I would recommend going back and looking at the 2012 election. A number of "unskewers" and pundits predicted a Romney landslide. But the statisticians uniformly predicted the election accurately. Personally, I put far more faith in science than I do anyone's gut feelings.
66
What is Timothy's evidence for these strange charges?
Why do they so eerily reflect similar projections made in 2012 about how "the polls were weighted against Romney"?
Why do they so eerily reflect similar projections made in 2012 about how "the polls were weighted against Romney"?
12
Thank you Nate Cohn, perhaps now I can sleep better.
163
As Hercule Poirot would say: In a few days all will be revealed.
As an ardent Hillary supporter from 2000 I believe more Americans will choose competence and a steady hand at the helm, no matter what degree of likability they may have of her, versus an obvious unsteady loose cannon, who at a moment's notice may come unhinged.
Even if one believes his promises, which that alone I find astounding, to hand over the reins of the most powerful nation in history to someone so ill-equipped and prone to fits of temper is too dangerous a bridge to cross.
DD
Manhattan
As an ardent Hillary supporter from 2000 I believe more Americans will choose competence and a steady hand at the helm, no matter what degree of likability they may have of her, versus an obvious unsteady loose cannon, who at a moment's notice may come unhinged.
Even if one believes his promises, which that alone I find astounding, to hand over the reins of the most powerful nation in history to someone so ill-equipped and prone to fits of temper is too dangerous a bridge to cross.
DD
Manhattan
378
The polls close between 7 pm and 8 pm ET in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Oho, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. Trump needs at least two of those states to have any chance of winning. Thus, if five of those states are called for Clinton relatively soon after the polls close then we will quickly know that she has won.
181
Yup. If she wins the 19 states (including DC) that have gone blue in every Presidential election since 1992, and Florida, she's done. And that's not even taking into account that New Mexico and Colorado are not in that 19 but are in the bag for her. So really, when Virginia goes for her (which it will), with those 2 she's already at 269. There's no way Trump will take every other swing state. He has disenfranchised too many important voting groups to do the kind of sweeping that a Republican in this day and time must do to win POTUS. I predict a massacre and some other pleasant surprises (women and hispanic early voting are already breaking records in some states).
320
Lady Dedlock,
If they tie at 269 or neither reaches 270 because McMullin takes Utah, these Republican House members who were disgusted by Trump have a decision to make. Or will it be like the HBO's VEEP, where the House refuses to vote and Senate picks Pence?
If they tie at 269 or neither reaches 270 because McMullin takes Utah, these Republican House members who were disgusted by Trump have a decision to make. Or will it be like the HBO's VEEP, where the House refuses to vote and Senate picks Pence?