There is a horrible disconnect with so-called working class voters between the real facts of the economy and what people like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders say. Trade deals did not wreck the manufacturing economy. Nor did taxes or the EPA and a reactionary government. What caused the partial de-industrialization of the economy was automation, computers, robotics, excess capacity world-wide, American corporations chasing low wages all over the world. If industrial workers in PA and OH and WVA think Donald Trump is going to change the free market system and capitalism and the growth of technology, they are being horrible delusional. He offers nothing of substance..
85
Trump thrives on the applause from an audience. If he says something insulting toward an enemy and gets whoops and cheers, he will say or do something even more insulting. Last week he claimed Clinton did not have stamina, then when the audience applauded, he went through a pantomime, getting a bigger laugh and applause. What will he do next?
How he performs in the second debate will be even more telling about his core belief and that of his followers.
Political and public figures are fair game to the kind of attacks that all candidates (and late night showmen) use. Attacks on private citizens are not so lightly tolerated.
Trump and Clinton will be asked questions not only by professionals, but also individual citizens. If a citizen asks a question that Trump does not like, Trump will first try to sidestep, then, if pushed, he will not be able to restrain his impulse to snarl back, either in person or in a later tweet.
How low will he go? Do his supporters even care?
How he performs in the second debate will be even more telling about his core belief and that of his followers.
Political and public figures are fair game to the kind of attacks that all candidates (and late night showmen) use. Attacks on private citizens are not so lightly tolerated.
Trump and Clinton will be asked questions not only by professionals, but also individual citizens. If a citizen asks a question that Trump does not like, Trump will first try to sidestep, then, if pushed, he will not be able to restrain his impulse to snarl back, either in person or in a later tweet.
How low will he go? Do his supporters even care?
23
The white working class is getting hammered. Their plants are shutting down, their kid's college tuition is skyrocketing, their medical bills are mounting and the 1 percent is taking more and more of the pie.
Agree or disagree with their solutions or rhetoric but Sanders and Trump spoke directly to this demographic and made them feel understood
The erosion of the middle class is the defining issue of our time. It's six weeks until the election and Hilary Clinton still has not formulated a resonate message for them
Agree or disagree with their solutions or rhetoric but Sanders and Trump spoke directly to this demographic and made them feel understood
The erosion of the middle class is the defining issue of our time. It's six weeks until the election and Hilary Clinton still has not formulated a resonate message for them
14
Can we all please step back and realize we are deciding between a Secretary of State & FLOTUS and a GAME SHOW HOST! C'mon now, lets get with it. This is our country that our children have to grow up in. Don't allow this moron who has given a voice to the Atari playing basement dwellers to con you too. This is far too important for our country and the world.
39
When I lived in California I was constantly polled. In retrospect that seems odd as California is a reliably blue state.
This election season as in the last I haven't received a single call. As I live in one of the states mentioned here, I find that exceedingly odd.
I can't help but wonder how many people like me are out there wondering.
This election season as in the last I haven't received a single call. As I live in one of the states mentioned here, I find that exceedingly odd.
I can't help but wonder how many people like me are out there wondering.
8
> It's my hope and belief that even the most detached white working class voters have now seen that this guy is playing them. If paying no taxes is "what makes me smart", then that makes the rest of us dummies. You don't need a college degree to see that.<
I'm afraid many of his supporters are just like him, or wanted to be like him, having the ability to take advantage of others "just a little dumber than me"! That's why every flaw uncovered of Trump doesn't deter his supporters but galvanize them even more.
It's a sad society we're living in. We will elect the president "we deserve". Go out and vote, we'll find out in due course what kind of people we're share this country with.
I'm afraid many of his supporters are just like him, or wanted to be like him, having the ability to take advantage of others "just a little dumber than me"! That's why every flaw uncovered of Trump doesn't deter his supporters but galvanize them even more.
It's a sad society we're living in. We will elect the president "we deserve". Go out and vote, we'll find out in due course what kind of people we're share this country with.
22
It turns out that Trump's followers are justifying their hero's very, very assessment of them.
"I love the poorly educated!"
"I love the poorly educated!"
24
The widespread, deeply felt hatred of Clinton is like the widespread, deeply felt hatred of Obama. Both are the result of incessant propaganda by the right wing -- including an enthusiastic GOP -- tapping into the racism and misogyny latent in much of America. The propaganda consists mainly of lies. Obama was born in Kenya, you know. Not one American in 50 knows what "Benghazi" means -- but it definitely shows what a terrible person Clinton is. It's a technique called the Big Lie -- and it's often effective.
That said -- and speaking as a Democrat who will definitely vote for Clinton in November -- I think her "character" stinks.
After 68 years on this earth, including 40 years as a lawyer and many years as a State-employed investigator of judicial corruption, I have come up with two rules-of-thumb -- not certainties, but presumptions:
(1) If A pays large sums of money to B, it is likely that A has a rational expectation of something in return from B -- whether or not you can find the quo for the quid. Think of Goldman Sachs and Clinton.
(2) If someone suppresses evidence, it is likely the evidence is bad for that person. What exactly did Clinton say to Goldman Sachs? I'd like to know.
That said -- and speaking as a Democrat who will definitely vote for Clinton in November -- I think her "character" stinks.
After 68 years on this earth, including 40 years as a lawyer and many years as a State-employed investigator of judicial corruption, I have come up with two rules-of-thumb -- not certainties, but presumptions:
(1) If A pays large sums of money to B, it is likely that A has a rational expectation of something in return from B -- whether or not you can find the quo for the quid. Think of Goldman Sachs and Clinton.
(2) If someone suppresses evidence, it is likely the evidence is bad for that person. What exactly did Clinton say to Goldman Sachs? I'd like to know.
5
This polling outcome should surprise no one. Especially given the demographics of Trump's core base and the pitch-perfect rhetoric he has been spewing in their direction for over the past year.
There's probably little hope that Clinton would ever resonate with them, and gender probably has more than a little to do with that.
Amazingly they see Clinton as a product of the wealthy Wall Street elite, even while hanging onto the coattails of a self-professed BILLIONAIRE, whose high-life in the fast lane comes nowhere near reflecting their own -- a dichotomy that is puzzling all in itself.
But the reality for Mr. Trump is that he has already hit his ceiling by estranging over half the electorate with his insults and tweets. And there's little chance that all the disgruntled, non-college educated, working-class Whites in the country can save him, when he can't even save himself.
There's probably little hope that Clinton would ever resonate with them, and gender probably has more than a little to do with that.
Amazingly they see Clinton as a product of the wealthy Wall Street elite, even while hanging onto the coattails of a self-professed BILLIONAIRE, whose high-life in the fast lane comes nowhere near reflecting their own -- a dichotomy that is puzzling all in itself.
But the reality for Mr. Trump is that he has already hit his ceiling by estranging over half the electorate with his insults and tweets. And there's little chance that all the disgruntled, non-college educated, working-class Whites in the country can save him, when he can't even save himself.
11
Donald Trump has shown his disdain and outright disrespect for the office of the Presidency and for his supporters:
1. He has spent NO time preparing for the job in over 1 yr. He doesn't know what is actually in the Constitution he would be charged with protecting, he knows little about our security or our place in the world, beyond 'knowing' he knows ''more about ISIS" than the Generals.
2. Knowing he would be representing his actual and would-be supporters at the first debate, he again spent no time in preparation, embarrassing himself and his supporters. Of course, he doesn't get embarrassed but his surrogates sure looked dumb making excuses for his performance.
3. He refuses to release his tax returns and expects people to believe it's because because he's under audit - an excuse every tax attorney has disproved. Then he offers he to release them "if Hillary ..." proving that even he knows there is no legal reason not to release them.
4. He lies. Constantly and blatantly, and his supporters are supposed to believe what he says against all proof.
5. "... I could shoot someone and I wouldn't lose voters". "I love the poorly educated". Just 2 Trump quotes that are clear what he thinks about his supporters.
There's more but just those 5 items makes me believe he's laughing at his supporters. I'm not, because it's not funny, they are voting for a President, it's important and they are jeopardizing our country by voting for this vile, unprepared man.
1. He has spent NO time preparing for the job in over 1 yr. He doesn't know what is actually in the Constitution he would be charged with protecting, he knows little about our security or our place in the world, beyond 'knowing' he knows ''more about ISIS" than the Generals.
2. Knowing he would be representing his actual and would-be supporters at the first debate, he again spent no time in preparation, embarrassing himself and his supporters. Of course, he doesn't get embarrassed but his surrogates sure looked dumb making excuses for his performance.
3. He refuses to release his tax returns and expects people to believe it's because because he's under audit - an excuse every tax attorney has disproved. Then he offers he to release them "if Hillary ..." proving that even he knows there is no legal reason not to release them.
4. He lies. Constantly and blatantly, and his supporters are supposed to believe what he says against all proof.
5. "... I could shoot someone and I wouldn't lose voters". "I love the poorly educated". Just 2 Trump quotes that are clear what he thinks about his supporters.
There's more but just those 5 items makes me believe he's laughing at his supporters. I'm not, because it's not funny, they are voting for a President, it's important and they are jeopardizing our country by voting for this vile, unprepared man.
26
What's not to like about a candidate who absolutely hates and despises military veterans?
I'm surprised more Americans don't embrace Donald "Four draft deferments" Trump.
He's a real patriot!
I'm surprised more Americans don't embrace Donald "Four draft deferments" Trump.
He's a real patriot!
15
I have given up on "advising" Mrs. Clinton on how to break out of the quagmire she's in. Her debate performance was excellent, certainly in contrast with The Donald's. Many voters on both left and right are hungry for BIG change that she certainly doesn't promise. But she could take a page from her husband's "I feel your pain" campaign, but make it "I feel your anger." Tell them what she personally is mad about (with genuine emotion) and how government (specifically the Republican Congress) has failed them. Trump is channeling emotions more than remedies and she has failed to do that.
16
The megalomaniac psychopath is keeping his "core support"? Do you mean he is keeping the basket of deplorable, uneducated, illiterate white trash?
Great! he can keep the garbage, We The People don't need them.
Great! he can keep the garbage, We The People don't need them.
17
Still too close for me.
But, as Trump is bound to turn in another awful debate performance, I wonder if there is a "wear-out" factor with this guy. Will there be some cumulative effect that essentially "wears-out" his novelty or alledged "outsider" status?
I hope so - I think the time is near.
But, as Trump is bound to turn in another awful debate performance, I wonder if there is a "wear-out" factor with this guy. Will there be some cumulative effect that essentially "wears-out" his novelty or alledged "outsider" status?
I hope so - I think the time is near.
12
This makes me CRINGE.
13
There will always be an irreducible core of support for Donald Trump; under-read, absent any critical thinking skills and ferociously angry that the universe hasn't given them "their due." They have to blame their condition on someone.
Don't even bother to try changing their minds because it isn't going to happen. Focus, instead on getting people to the polls, past GOP voter suppression barriers from bureaucratic to physical intimidation.
And let's hear a drum beat for "Unless you live in an absolutely guaranteed blue state, you cannot afford a protest vote this time...yes, a handful of opioids 'just once' can kill you." We can survive HRC...DJT in control of our military and law enforcement apparatus...unlikely we'll be recognizable.
Don't even bother to try changing their minds because it isn't going to happen. Focus, instead on getting people to the polls, past GOP voter suppression barriers from bureaucratic to physical intimidation.
And let's hear a drum beat for "Unless you live in an absolutely guaranteed blue state, you cannot afford a protest vote this time...yes, a handful of opioids 'just once' can kill you." We can survive HRC...DJT in control of our military and law enforcement apparatus...unlikely we'll be recognizable.
19
It's hardly a surprise that Trump hasn't lost his core support. After all, he's said so many despicable things so far in this campaign, it's hard to imagine anything that would drive those folks away. As he himself said, he could shoot someone in midtown Manhattan and still get votes, and he's right.
5
It's obvious that Trump's supporters don't care anything about his taxes, his rampant misogynism or racism. They're a lost cause. The fight is for the Sanders votes and the Republicans who actually have some reason. Trump's numbers may not go down much, but Clinton has a chance to raise her numbers.
15
It is a mystery to me how any of these less-educated, working-class white men feel they can relate to Trump, a man who inherited millions from his father, has never really worked a day in his life, and has lost more money in one year's time than they will ever even be able to fathom. Perhaps they relate only to his negativity and cynicism; they feel that the ship of American democracy is already wrecked, and they're looking to sink it.
My question to them would be, what happens once you sink the ship?
My question to them would be, what happens once you sink the ship?
23
Even when Hillary wins, the fact that Trump has gotten even this close is shameful reflection on the American People. Its becoming increasingly clear by their support for Trump that the reason white working class - which I am part of - has trouble finding decent jobs is not because of trade policy but because we are idiots.
24
Trump's core is sufficiently disconnected from reality that nothing he does can disturb it. That's been clear for months. There is no other self-aggrandizing, race-baiting, pathological liar for them turn turn to.
12
I think we are witnessing the last gasp of white entitlement as it goes down screaming and fighting. The core support of Trump does not represent the pluralistic society the rest of us live in. I expect Trump will lose and hs supporters will be just a few paragraphs in a high school history book. with the only remainder, the radio talk-shows where rant-meisters can rule a misogynistic and warped minority. Good riddance!
10
Trump's white male support is unchanged. They'd vote for a ham sandwich even if they had to pay for it. And under a President Trump, they'll pay for everything. They just don't know it. Yet.
23
I miss Bernie, too.
1
If Trump becomes President and teach us all how to avoid paying taxes, can our government survives? Who will fund the three American government branches, executive, legislative, and judicial? Private citizens and corporations ?
6
A frightening lesson from this election is that a major party can scrape the very bottom of the barrel and still be competitive in the Presidential race - Trump has shown us just how low the GOP can go and still have a hope of winning.
What will the GOP conclude if they lose? Probably that they don't need to change much. If Trump's very visible limits (he knows nothing and is temperamentally unsuited even for campaigning, let alone for being the President) result in hanging on to 45% of the electorate, what kind of candidate and what kind of message do they need in 2020?
My guess is that the GOP decision, even if Trump loses, will be that they don't need to change the messages of deregulation and trickle down that they so dearly love.
Those policies don't work for the nation, but add to them the dog whistle of racism, and they work just fine for the GOP.
What will the GOP conclude if they lose? Probably that they don't need to change much. If Trump's very visible limits (he knows nothing and is temperamentally unsuited even for campaigning, let alone for being the President) result in hanging on to 45% of the electorate, what kind of candidate and what kind of message do they need in 2020?
My guess is that the GOP decision, even if Trump loses, will be that they don't need to change the messages of deregulation and trickle down that they so dearly love.
Those policies don't work for the nation, but add to them the dog whistle of racism, and they work just fine for the GOP.
11
Trump's core support is the Republican party. Party leaders are leading the way.
Southern Democrats had to explain their early association with the KKK. By the next election, Republicans will have to explain their support for this fascist, racist, sexist, tax dodger. Trump has tainted the GOP for a generation.
Southern Democrats had to explain their early association with the KKK. By the next election, Republicans will have to explain their support for this fascist, racist, sexist, tax dodger. Trump has tainted the GOP for a generation.
11
The trumpsters are going to be supporting him throughout the next eight years of their misery, while watching President Clinton on Fox News. They will keep chanting "what about the emails". They will keep buying guns they don't need. They will keep blaming everybody else for their own failures.
28
Ah, Hillary, the great unifier. Millions of Americans are "DEPLORABLE" racists, islamophobes, etc. Milleniums live in their parent's basement and hope for a 'revolution' which she deems pathetic. This is the incredibly accomplished woman the NYT readers want for their next president. Be careful readers, very careful. You might get what you want.
8
The week-to-week changes in polling results is really just statistical noise. Since last fall, Clinton has consistently held a 2-3 point lead over Trump (e.g., look at the Huffington Post poll tracker, http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump....
Similarly, the betting markets have consistently favored Clinton over Trump since last fall though the difference in betting expectations has been increasing the closer we get to the election (e.g., https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres16_WTA.cfm).
In short, Clinton should win the election by 2-3 points assuming the Democrats don't get overconfident and fail to vote. As Julius Caesar said in crossing the Rubicon river in Northern Italy, "The die is cast".
Similarly, the betting markets have consistently favored Clinton over Trump since last fall though the difference in betting expectations has been increasing the closer we get to the election (e.g., https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres16_WTA.cfm).
In short, Clinton should win the election by 2-3 points assuming the Democrats don't get overconfident and fail to vote. As Julius Caesar said in crossing the Rubicon river in Northern Italy, "The die is cast".
6
For Republicans the dilemma is clear: vote for an arrogant egotist that insults almost every group in America, brags about not paying his taxes, and has a temperament that no occupant of the White House should have; or vote for a liberal Democrat who promises to raise your taxes, will change the Supreme Court to a political body enacting liberal policies, will continue the Obama deconstruction of the American military, and will promote the same division in the electorate that her predecessor has implemented. It is really no choice for a Republican.
2
Perhaps the white working and middle class people supporting Trump might come to the uncomfortable realization that the taxes that Mr. Trump and others of his financial wherewithal don't pay have to be paid by someone to keep our government running, our military fed, clothed, and armed, etc. Those taxes not paid by real estate developers, hedge-fund managers, and inherited wealth trust funders have to be extracted from someone. Guess who? Yep, the working and middle classes.
19
Virtually every data crunching expert, futures and betting markets, including the New York Times, gives Hillary Clinton between 70% and 80% chance of winning.
Trump is within striking distance the same way I can slam dunk. I can see the rim and I still think I can do it but there's no way I can.
I get it. The media needs to keep flogging the horse race. I suppose Trump could still win in the same way that if I flap my arms really hard maybe I can fly to the moon. Otherwise, not.
Trump is within striking distance the same way I can slam dunk. I can see the rim and I still think I can do it but there's no way I can.
I get it. The media needs to keep flogging the horse race. I suppose Trump could still win in the same way that if I flap my arms really hard maybe I can fly to the moon. Otherwise, not.
17
More is said about the people of this country, not in the fact that Donald Trump would be in so-called "striking distance" but that people would actually support a candidate like him. Belief is everything, and some people will believe anything.
Television and social media have become the altars toward which we pray. The only debate is which channel to watch.
Television and social media have become the altars toward which we pray. The only debate is which channel to watch.
7
It will come down who goes out to vote. Many of Trumps low information white voters do not have a history of voting or even registering. Will Joe-Six Pack take time off of work and go vote? It takes effort to vote - and take people to get out the vote - where is the Trump ground game?
9
Its interesting that Romney did about as well as Trump with white working class men in 2012. Obama did better with that group in 2008 than he did in 2012. The trend by white working class men towards the GOP is not unique to Trump. The financial crisis and a lengthy recession has not been kind to that group. The GOP has been successful in placing the blame for the recession and the slow recovery on the Democratic Party. Trump has added immigration and the uptick in terrorism to his law and order platform. His base is willing to ignore the lack of specificity in his proposals to fix things. They view Trump as their last hope.
1
1) Trump must be terrific in the next 2 debates. That is not going to happen.
2) Trump must stay away from any more rabbit holes. Can anyone see him not attacking anyone anymore for five weeks? That is not going to happen.
3) There is going to have to be some new bad true news on Clinton. With all the spotlights on her for the last 30 years? What you see is what you have. Everything.
Conclusion: No way can Trump turn this ship around and the polls are going to get much worse.
2nd Conclusion: Nate? You really have to stop smoking whatever it is you are on, because your line of logic just does not apply to reality Trump.
2) Trump must stay away from any more rabbit holes. Can anyone see him not attacking anyone anymore for five weeks? That is not going to happen.
3) There is going to have to be some new bad true news on Clinton. With all the spotlights on her for the last 30 years? What you see is what you have. Everything.
Conclusion: No way can Trump turn this ship around and the polls are going to get much worse.
2nd Conclusion: Nate? You really have to stop smoking whatever it is you are on, because your line of logic just does not apply to reality Trump.
5
In looking at Trump, it is almost as if by co-opting the Republican machinery- he skipped several steps that Hitler had to contend with in his rise to power. Hitler after his ascent to power- to many Germans was eminently likeable. A savior- a purist- above the crowd and his underlings. The perception of Trump- at least today- is quite the opposite in terms of likeability and trust. Yet Trump has the support of the white, uneducated masses and others. Enough support to remain in contention in the polls, win 10 million votes during the Republican primary and have at least 40% of the electorate behind him.
Many things have contributed to this. There are spiritual and political dimensions. Economic weakness. Dissension on the Left. Instability and violence and what I contend is an evil type of genius that has mastered social media and tapped into existential fear, anger and hatred. Racism, paranoia- a sociopath who is mentally unstable and does little to conceal it.
As the political and economic system destabilizes further due to environmental collapse, worse Trump's may arise. Yet to give this embodiment of evil sway- is unconscionable. But even if reason should prevail- global challenges will remain and the basis of civilization is at increasing risk.
Many things have contributed to this. There are spiritual and political dimensions. Economic weakness. Dissension on the Left. Instability and violence and what I contend is an evil type of genius that has mastered social media and tapped into existential fear, anger and hatred. Racism, paranoia- a sociopath who is mentally unstable and does little to conceal it.
As the political and economic system destabilizes further due to environmental collapse, worse Trump's may arise. Yet to give this embodiment of evil sway- is unconscionable. But even if reason should prevail- global challenges will remain and the basis of civilization is at increasing risk.
9
Let's not pretend otherwise. Trump has a real shot at the presidency because of the support of his substantial "basket of deplorables."
13
At the end of the day, you have to consider a plausible, if politically incorrect, explanation: These white working-class voters without a college degree are perpetually down-and-out because they lack the intelligence to do better economically in an amazing country that affords people plenty of opportunity to do so. The same lack of intelligence makes them easy prey for con artists like Donald Trump.
7
The most sincere and honest assessment of The Donald's core supporter came from The Donald himself: "I could stand out in the middle of 5th avenue and shoot someone, and my poll numbers would not go down."
There is no new revelation, offensive statement, or character defect/flaw that is going to cause The Donald to lose his core supporters. They are all out there for everyone to see. The Donald has been brazenly flaunting who he is for everyone to see for the better part of his 70 years.
The leopard will not change his spots now. The Donald's moral compass will continue to point in the direction that best serves The Donald in the moment. And his core supporters will continue to think that a Wharton graduate who inherited a fortune is just like them and understands that the game is rigged against them.
There is no new revelation, offensive statement, or character defect/flaw that is going to cause The Donald to lose his core supporters. They are all out there for everyone to see. The Donald has been brazenly flaunting who he is for everyone to see for the better part of his 70 years.
The leopard will not change his spots now. The Donald's moral compass will continue to point in the direction that best serves The Donald in the moment. And his core supporters will continue to think that a Wharton graduate who inherited a fortune is just like them and understands that the game is rigged against them.
13
These polls aren't taking into effect the enthusiasm factor.
Hillary Clinton has proven to have bad judgement as Secretary of State. Just look at her record. She can't even talk about it. As president, you must have good judgement. Just about all of Secretary Clinton's decisions were incorrect in regards to Russia, Egypt, Syria, Libya, Iran, and Iraq.
When it comes to the economy, Trump owns a 70 foot skyscraper on Wall Street, Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue, 0ver 50 luxury apartments on Park Avenue, a prestigious hotel in SOHO, 1290 Avenue of the Americas building overlooking Central Park, Trump World Tower by the UN building...and that's just some of the buildings he owns just in NYC. I have to believe he knows a lot more about the economy, money, and getting things done than Hillary.
Donald Trump's ego alone will drive him to do a great job as POTUS. He is a do-er. Not a talker like Hillary. Clinton has been talking about the same old things for the last 25 years. Proving she just doesn't get things done.
I don't think Hillary's voters will be enthusiastic enough to show up to vote this year. Heck, people struggle to even name 2 things she has accomplished in DC in all her years.
Hillary Clinton has proven to have bad judgement as Secretary of State. Just look at her record. She can't even talk about it. As president, you must have good judgement. Just about all of Secretary Clinton's decisions were incorrect in regards to Russia, Egypt, Syria, Libya, Iran, and Iraq.
When it comes to the economy, Trump owns a 70 foot skyscraper on Wall Street, Trump Tower on Fifth Avenue, 0ver 50 luxury apartments on Park Avenue, a prestigious hotel in SOHO, 1290 Avenue of the Americas building overlooking Central Park, Trump World Tower by the UN building...and that's just some of the buildings he owns just in NYC. I have to believe he knows a lot more about the economy, money, and getting things done than Hillary.
Donald Trump's ego alone will drive him to do a great job as POTUS. He is a do-er. Not a talker like Hillary. Clinton has been talking about the same old things for the last 25 years. Proving she just doesn't get things done.
I don't think Hillary's voters will be enthusiastic enough to show up to vote this year. Heck, people struggle to even name 2 things she has accomplished in DC in all her years.
4
The problem is voters who think they are being clever by voting for a third party candidate. When there is no significant difference in the qualifications of the candidates, a third party protest vote might be justified. But in the present case where one candidate is very clearly unfit for the office, voting third party is not a smart option.
64
Garry is also not qualified enough.
Which "one" is unfit? A lot of people think they are both unfit. You might be able to make a point one is more unfit than the other, but that changes nothing.
2
Don't try to tell me that my constitutional right to vote third party is "Not Smart". Perhaps the democrats should have given a more likeable alternative to Trump?
Voting third party seems to be the only smart option at this point.
Voting third party seems to be the only smart option at this point.
2
I haven't been able to determine that Trump is away from his usual campaign routine, so it's "debatable" whether or not he's preparing for the town hall contest on Sunday.
He'll he asked very policy oriented questions - that's typical of this format which has the audience participate.
His lack of knowledge, mangled English and spooky behavior will be naked for all to see.
Train wreck ahead.
He'll he asked very policy oriented questions - that's typical of this format which has the audience participate.
His lack of knowledge, mangled English and spooky behavior will be naked for all to see.
Train wreck ahead.
41
Train wreck redux.
3
I miss Bernie.
22
Then vote for Clinton. In almost every case her position difference from Sanders is only a matter of degree, and she is for more likely than Sanders ever was to accomplish any of his agenda.
54
W.A. Spitzer: Gene is from Canada, so I don't think he's able to vote for Clinton.
Although I'll say, as somebody on the other side of Lake Erie, I miss Bernie too, even though I'm probably going to end up voting for Clinton.
Although I'll say, as somebody on the other side of Lake Erie, I miss Bernie too, even though I'm probably going to end up voting for Clinton.
12
Americans actually do live in other countries, some even vote, and those votes matter.
I'm one and I'm living in a place where I see the impact of the ugliness of what this election has evolved into.
I'm one and I'm living in a place where I see the impact of the ugliness of what this election has evolved into.
2
You're assuming that Trump merely had a "bad week" and performed poorly in the debate. I think something more profound happened: People who hadn't paid close attention before the debate got to see Trump for the first time outside the context of his rallies.
What they saw was an ignorant bully, a small-minded man whose ideas amount to shouting down his opponent, and who is obsessed with subjects best left to checkout counter tabloids.
It's my hope and belief that even the most detached white working class voters have now seen that this guy is playing them. If paying no taxes is "what makes me smart", then that makes the rest of us dummies. You don't need a college degree to see that.
What they saw was an ignorant bully, a small-minded man whose ideas amount to shouting down his opponent, and who is obsessed with subjects best left to checkout counter tabloids.
It's my hope and belief that even the most detached white working class voters have now seen that this guy is playing them. If paying no taxes is "what makes me smart", then that makes the rest of us dummies. You don't need a college degree to see that.
111
It seems striking to me that Trump is still in the ring with Clinton after his poor debate performance and the obvious media attempt to torpedo his campaign, led, unfortunately, by the NYT and other elite media.
That may be a testament to the widespread desire for change, which Trump has inexplicably made his own, thereby turning Clinton into a reactionary defender of the failed status quo.
That may be a testament to the widespread desire for change, which Trump has inexplicably made his own, thereby turning Clinton into a reactionary defender of the failed status quo.
10
If a race baiting, misogynist, who would tear up an international climate change agreement, build a wall, and bar Muslims is the kind of change you want than by all means vote Trump. Unless of course you are concerned that he needs to be in therapy for his extreme narcissism. As for maintaining the status quo, anybody who has paid any attention at all would know that the it is the present Republican Congress that has blocked any and every attempt at change, because you sure wouldn't want a black President to be considered a success.
60
There is an anti-incumbency factor to deal with. But the change you are looking can also come from an experienced person.
1
You're right, he's doing quite well for an ignoramus.
2
America is shaking off the cobwebs.
Trump won't win because Hillary's husband was unfaithful. And he won't win because he was a lecher on the hunt behind the scenes in some dumb reality TV show.
He'll win only if voters find themselves thwarted by polling workers and intimidated or daunted by all the other hurdles Southern and conservative states have thrown between their homes and the ballot box.
Remember Selma. And guts. And how it changed America forever.
Trump won't win because Hillary's husband was unfaithful. And he won't win because he was a lecher on the hunt behind the scenes in some dumb reality TV show.
He'll win only if voters find themselves thwarted by polling workers and intimidated or daunted by all the other hurdles Southern and conservative states have thrown between their homes and the ballot box.
Remember Selma. And guts. And how it changed America forever.
116
"because Hillary's husband was unfaithful." Stop purveying red herrings, and address the issue: Hillary trashed Bill's victims and accusers, including authorizing private investigators to dig up dirt. Now she says 'rape victims must be heard'. As long as they are not Bill's victims??
2
Most Republicans will vote for Trump in the end, despite his noxious output, or their protests at his policies. It will be close, as it always is.
32
Sam--INCLUDING those 110 Republicans who claimed they would not vote for Trump, in the hope of maintaining their own political ambitions. We will never know how they really vote, but COUNT on the fact that they are all lying about it.
4
I have a hard time understanding the immense, vitriolic hatred towards Mrs. Clinton. She's an incredibly accomplished woman who has done so much for children and women the world over.
Nothing that she's done - the ridiculous Benghazi charges, taking money from Goldman Sachs (not the brightest move, to be sure -- but understandable,) using a private server as did Colin Powell, amount to the level of anything that Trump or George Bush, Jr. did and continue to do.
How much is misogyny? How much is ignorance? Most or all of it, I think.
Nothing that she's done - the ridiculous Benghazi charges, taking money from Goldman Sachs (not the brightest move, to be sure -- but understandable,) using a private server as did Colin Powell, amount to the level of anything that Trump or George Bush, Jr. did and continue to do.
How much is misogyny? How much is ignorance? Most or all of it, I think.
355
"Nothing that she's done - amount to the level of anything that Trump or George Bush, Jr. did and continue to do."
What about turning Syrian opposition from a non-violent street protest into a civil war, creating anarchy that helped ISIS establish a base of operations? And doing the same thing again in Libya? That's something Clinton did as secretary of state, and while not as disastrous for the US as the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, it was a really bad move.
One of the things I don't like about the Clinton campaign is that it has convinced a lot of Clinton supporters that because some of the criticism of Hillary Clinton is definitely misogyny (e.g. those accusing her of being "shrill", "unlikeable", or simply too old), and because the Republicans are indeed worse, there's no such thing as legitimate criticism of Hillary Clinton.
What about turning Syrian opposition from a non-violent street protest into a civil war, creating anarchy that helped ISIS establish a base of operations? And doing the same thing again in Libya? That's something Clinton did as secretary of state, and while not as disastrous for the US as the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, it was a really bad move.
One of the things I don't like about the Clinton campaign is that it has convinced a lot of Clinton supporters that because some of the criticism of Hillary Clinton is definitely misogyny (e.g. those accusing her of being "shrill", "unlikeable", or simply too old), and because the Republicans are indeed worse, there's no such thing as legitimate criticism of Hillary Clinton.
19
Dave - Any candidate who has been in politics for thirty years will necessarily carry baggage, but it is also a gross mistake not to look at the other side of the ledger. Clinton helped to register black voters in the South in the 60's; she was the first person to make a serious attempt at universal healthcare coverage; and she has been a consistent champion of children and women's rights throughout her career. She has a long record over time if you care to look.
And by the way, the Libya thing is way off base. That action was initiated by our European allies led by France. The U.S. provided technical support at their request - for which I might add Republicans criticized the Obama administration at the time for not providing leadership.
And by the way, the Libya thing is way off base. That action was initiated by our European allies led by France. The U.S. provided technical support at their request - for which I might add Republicans criticized the Obama administration at the time for not providing leadership.
32
She is the real republican candidate in this election.
When a candidates primary strength is based on a dwindling demographic's reactionary response to race & gender you've lost.
The target market (and that is all they are to the GOP) has been given the mixed messages that
a) they are losing the power to decide who gets elected b) they are still strong enough to take that power back from the "lesser cuts of meat" --Thomas Corbin Rep SC c) they can do this without a get out to vote ground game.
Non-white, Hispanic, Muslims and Jews have virtually abandoned the GOP this cycle. They are enough to keep the White House away from Trump. Thank God & bless them.
Just think of it-Clinton will win with an historical coalition of minorities that are usually played off each other.
But icing on the cake and the demographic in bed with White, cis male privilege will be white women.
This vote will be a tsunami for Clinton because white women, that lesser cut of meat within white privilege, will vote gender over race. Because we can.
The target market (and that is all they are to the GOP) has been given the mixed messages that
a) they are losing the power to decide who gets elected b) they are still strong enough to take that power back from the "lesser cuts of meat" --Thomas Corbin Rep SC c) they can do this without a get out to vote ground game.
Non-white, Hispanic, Muslims and Jews have virtually abandoned the GOP this cycle. They are enough to keep the White House away from Trump. Thank God & bless them.
Just think of it-Clinton will win with an historical coalition of minorities that are usually played off each other.
But icing on the cake and the demographic in bed with White, cis male privilege will be white women.
This vote will be a tsunami for Clinton because white women, that lesser cut of meat within white privilege, will vote gender over race. Because we can.
61
Don't count me in on that. I am long over voting for another woman "just because". There's far more at stake here.
1
Super frustrating to read the results of surveys among white working class voters. What the heck more do these folks need to convince them that Trump would be a disaster. I mean - does he have to strip bare naked on stage to reveal a body-length tattoo proclaiming his love for ISIS along with a stencil of Karl Marx? It's extraordinary how white working class males, particularly, seem uninterested in facts when it comes to Trump & Hillary.
120
It's probably not unfair to say that voters are less influenced by facts and more influenced by show business, where Mr. Trump, deplorable as he is, clearly has an advantage. His supporters remind me of race fans who go to see the crashes.
Whether or not that means he could actually win is up for debate. But the fact that it's even up for debate is scary.
Whether or not that means he could actually win is up for debate. But the fact that it's even up for debate is scary.
94
His voters ARE the race fans who go to see the crashes, bless their hearts.
9
Trump voters don't read the same news you and I do. They live in the echo chamber of right wing news. They are told Trump is their knight in shining armor 24/7. They are completely and utterly brainwashed. As Trump himself admits, he could walk down 5th avenue and shoot someone and it wouldn't matter. That is how entrenched his supporters are.
1
Voters, please save us from the dreadful prospect of "President Trump"!!!
68
Bill Edley: Interesting comment (no snark intended), but what's your point?
8
Last Presidential election Maine was the true bellweather state. This year it is New Hampshire. If Clinton wins there, it is all over but the counting.
1
Dear Bill Edley: What?
Please be explicit about how the transformation of your golf course into a cornfield is Clinton's fault.
Good lord.
Please be explicit about how the transformation of your golf course into a cornfield is Clinton's fault.
Good lord.
40
Some of those post-debate polls do not include the revelation that Trump likely paid no taxes since 1995. That's the one issue that has weakened his support among the white working class. A Newsweek story about him supporting Chinese steel won't help either.
33
The town hall format of the next debate will prove a major challenge to Trump tonight. He will have to relate directly to an audience who are not entirely his fans and confront reality outside his bubble.
Clinton will be challenged too, but she is used to it.
Trump will likely appear very unpresidential, especially because he cannot prepare.
Clinton will be challenged too, but she is used to it.
Trump will likely appear very unpresidential, especially because he cannot prepare.
38
Given the low expectations, anything other than another complete meltdown might help Trump in the next debate. On the other hand, another meltdown is a distinct possibility. One often-neglected aspect of the last debate wasn't just that Trump did so poorly, but HC did quite well. The right depicts her as the wicked witch of the west, but when people actually see and listen to her, well, it turns out she seems pretty smart, knowledgeable, and reasonable. The fact that the race is this close after everything that's transpired from Trump does not cease to amaze me. Donald Trump as white-working class hero. To quote the Donald: Unbelievable!
155
White working-class men have been so taken in by endless Republican lies about liberals taking their money and giving it to "those people" that they remain willfully ignorant about who Donald Trump really is.
He's the "successful" businessman who flushes the working class down the drain to protect his personal wealth. He's the real welfare cheat who stole $915 million tax dollars that his supporters had to pay.
But he's not a woman, of course, and these supporters use the Biblical directives to keep women in their place, and even the women buy it.
So though Trump, and the party he represents, have stomped all over them, and will do so even more if he grabs the reins of power, their willful ignorance prevails as they continue to slide down the ladder of wealth inequality and pull the "R" lever in the voting booth.
He's the "successful" businessman who flushes the working class down the drain to protect his personal wealth. He's the real welfare cheat who stole $915 million tax dollars that his supporters had to pay.
But he's not a woman, of course, and these supporters use the Biblical directives to keep women in their place, and even the women buy it.
So though Trump, and the party he represents, have stomped all over them, and will do so even more if he grabs the reins of power, their willful ignorance prevails as they continue to slide down the ladder of wealth inequality and pull the "R" lever in the voting booth.
215
You also cannot argue with GOP gerrymandered voting districts, voting restriction laws (ie voting ID laws), and a fickle low information electorate that incredibly put a bunch of gleeful stalwart GOP obstructionists in power not once but twice since 2010.
19
They don't have much to lose in reality and Trump will be a serious annoyance to those they can't stand. He'll continue to let it be alright to be unPC. That's something for them to look forward to. In any event, he needs a minor miracle ( for the 2nd time) to get up unless WWC turnout is at record Brexit levels and millenials stay home or third party or both. There are in fact about 15 m of them that didn't vote in 2012 and another 47 m that currently aren't registered. Just as well for Hillary they are apathetic about voting. If Trump did win you'd imagine he might need to at least try to implement one or more of his policies in some form. Of the witha GOP Congress the tax policy would get up in some form. The issue is what would he do on trade and globalization, which would be the huge sting in the tail for the billionaire class of getting tax cuts. The next 4 years couldn't really be much worse than the last 8 or 18 for them. I hopw the polls aren't Dem primary kind of wrong. That LA Times poll is sitting defiantly all out on it's own at T 3-6 with it's same 3000 voters polled over and over and they haven't budged since the debate for some unknown reason. It's either going to be spectacularly wrong or right. I'm going for wrong but you never know.
1
Trump didn't steal $916 million tax dollars. That's what he managed to lose in business in a single year. Which, since his campaign pitch is "look how successful a businessman I am", is pretty damning.
5
Though this article doesn't explicitly say so, its focus on demographics mirrors Trump's campaign strategy. Does the Times realize that its coverage has done little to help the electorate rise above a narrative about who is against whom? Perhaps the candidates haven't done much in this regard either (though I think Clinton has tried), but that shouldn't prevent the media from taking a higher road. I realize that The Upshot is about numbers -- but a focus on numbers doesn't guarantee objectivity. In fact, it is a choice to write about them without writing about issues.
60
It has sadly been proven again and again that ideas play a very small part in national elections.
People don't move from their innate/acquired ideological point of view.
People don't move from their innate/acquired ideological point of view.
3
A few weeks ago, I attended my high school reunion in Canton, Il. At one time Canton was a prosperous community within central Illinois’s prosperous industrial economy. I had a drink at the former private Canton County Golf Club bar. When I was young it was only golf course in town.
The private county club was sold a few years ago and the bar became public. The 100 year golf course was then plowed under and is now a corn field.
I am not voting for a Clinton third term, under any circumstances.
The private county club was sold a few years ago and the bar became public. The 100 year golf course was then plowed under and is now a corn field.
I am not voting for a Clinton third term, under any circumstances.
20
Why take this situation out on Clinton? Golf generally has been in a slow decline, with courses closing all over the place, largely because it is perceived as taking too much time as well as being difficult to master. My Dad's old course in North Carolina was where he spent the majority of his last years; it was closed and bull dozed for a boutique shopping mall.
In neither case did Clinton (or Obama) for that matter have anything to do with what happened.
In neither case did Clinton (or Obama) for that matter have anything to do with what happened.
57
I hope you aren't voting trump or third party then
6
Please better explain your logic
15
Things appear to be moving in the right direction at the moment, and I have grown increasingly optimistic about Mrs. Clinton’s chances. She handled herself extremely well in the first debate and is looking good, smart and confident in her public appearances. Her ads, while still not inspiring or powerful enough, seem to me to convey the image of a candidate with ideas and a purpose. Moreover, she has money in the bank for a very solid turnout effort and ground game on the day of the election far exceeding anything Trump will be able to muster.
Mr. Trump, meanwhile, is doing everything humanly possible to sabotage his chances for election. His hostility towards women, his tax return problems, his wild personal attacks against the Clintons, his increasingly bizarre late night Twitter behavior, all of these plus the fact that his public appearances have increasingly drawn scorn, laughter and derision on TV and social media outlets augurs well for his solid defeat.
Still, it is not enough. The possibility of a Trump victory on Nov. 8 presents such looming dangers for the country that something more radical needs to be done.
I therefore suggest that a few days before the election Mrs. Clinton go on television and pledge to the nation that if elected, she will serve as a one-term President.
I believe middle-class Americans -- not wanting to venture into the dangerous, uncharted waters presented by Mr. Trump -- will then accept her.
Mr. Trump, meanwhile, is doing everything humanly possible to sabotage his chances for election. His hostility towards women, his tax return problems, his wild personal attacks against the Clintons, his increasingly bizarre late night Twitter behavior, all of these plus the fact that his public appearances have increasingly drawn scorn, laughter and derision on TV and social media outlets augurs well for his solid defeat.
Still, it is not enough. The possibility of a Trump victory on Nov. 8 presents such looming dangers for the country that something more radical needs to be done.
I therefore suggest that a few days before the election Mrs. Clinton go on television and pledge to the nation that if elected, she will serve as a one-term President.
I believe middle-class Americans -- not wanting to venture into the dangerous, uncharted waters presented by Mr. Trump -- will then accept her.
26
She shouldn't have to do that, nor will she.
27
"I therefore suggest that a few days before the election Mrs. Clinton go on television and pledge to the nation that if elected, she will serve as a one-term President."
There is no reason at all for her to do this. None, whatsoever.
If the Republicans run a reasonable candidate in four years, I will most likely vote for him or her. I want that person to run against Hillary for her second term.
Sick and tired of people asking the woman to take a step back. It angered me eight years ago when the Democratic leadership pressured her to step back and let Obama have his day, though I planned to vote for McCain either way, and it irks me now. Let her own this, let her take it as far as she can, and let her succeed or fail just like the men do.
There is no reason at all for her to do this. None, whatsoever.
If the Republicans run a reasonable candidate in four years, I will most likely vote for him or her. I want that person to run against Hillary for her second term.
Sick and tired of people asking the woman to take a step back. It angered me eight years ago when the Democratic leadership pressured her to step back and let Obama have his day, though I planned to vote for McCain either way, and it irks me now. Let her own this, let her take it as far as she can, and let her succeed or fail just like the men do.
37
Thanks for the laugh this morning! Sorely needed, since any chance above 0 of a Trump win is terrifying.
11