could the reason she may win Georgia is the fact that "The Donald" has alienated just about every segment of the voter pool? Considering this fact a chimpanzee could win Georgia. This is not something that Hillary and her supporters can claim as a "great" victory. She should be leading in the polls by over 20% (more likely more) considering her opponent. Yet she is not. This is really something considering her opponent.
23
I wonder how many Democrats in the South have not bothered to vote in recent elections, out of sheer hopelessness. Perhaps these developments will give them hope: get out and vote! Your vote might just count this year.
75
Interesting and accurate comparison - Hillary Clinton and Richard Nixon. As I recall, there have been many amateur psychoanalyses of Nixon, pointing out severe personality defects.
How many remember that in the times leading up to a possible impeachment vote, James Schlesinger, Secretary of Defense, sent a memo to the Joint Chiefs of Staff that he was their superior in the chain of command up to the Commander in Chief - that they take their orders from him.
I realize I have little company, but personally I am as fearful of HRC's stability as I am of Trump's.
I fear for the Republic.
How many remember that in the times leading up to a possible impeachment vote, James Schlesinger, Secretary of Defense, sent a memo to the Joint Chiefs of Staff that he was their superior in the chain of command up to the Commander in Chief - that they take their orders from him.
I realize I have little company, but personally I am as fearful of HRC's stability as I am of Trump's.
I fear for the Republic.
4
Hillary reminds me so much of Tricky Dick. Smart. Hard-working. Experienced. Rotten to the core.
6
This editorial is a great recap of what has been happening in American politics, specifically as it relates to the South. Without relying on hyperbole, the author clearly spells out what Americans and especially Republicans have known for a long time. I'm not going to repeat what is described in this piece - I simply state that I agree with their conclusions and suggest those that haven't read it do so.
6
"Ronald Reagan folded in religious conservatives in the 1980s to replace the generation of Dixiecrats dying off, thus consolidating the powerful mix of cultural reaction and economic conservatism that is modern Republicanism."
This is an under-analyzed factor that helps contribute to Trump's unpopularity with 'traditional' republicans. Many religious conservatives may have racist tendencies, but in most cases their attitudes about decorum, decency and humility 'trump' their ability to hold their noses and pull the lever for the entirely un-charming New York vulgarian. Many thousands of these people will stay home on election day.
This is an under-analyzed factor that helps contribute to Trump's unpopularity with 'traditional' republicans. Many religious conservatives may have racist tendencies, but in most cases their attitudes about decorum, decency and humility 'trump' their ability to hold their noses and pull the lever for the entirely un-charming New York vulgarian. Many thousands of these people will stay home on election day.
4
Hillary Clinton ought to win in former Republican strongholds. She's not a RINO; she's a DINO, the most conservative, war-mongering, status-quo protecting, 1%-representing candidate in the race. She just pays lip service to Bernie's supporters, and to Blacks and immigrants and women, hoping beyond hope they won't see through her subterfuge.
What could there possibly be to lose in supporting someone except Hillary? Fewer wars? More equitable income distribution? Upheaval of the sclerotic, venal status quo?
What could there possibly be to lose in supporting someone except Hillary? Fewer wars? More equitable income distribution? Upheaval of the sclerotic, venal status quo?
5
Republican conservatism is now roadkill. What's astonishing is that they managed to get run over while still driving the car.
27
It will be a cold day in hell before the black and hispanic communities are convinced that the GOP supports their causes. They recognize the difference between convenient pivoting and the Democratic Party's support and enactment of legislation through the years intended to meet their social and economic needs. It is no secret that the Republican Party became a haven for racist Dixiecrats who walked out of the Democratic convention when Truman, who supported civil rights, was nominated. From that point on history shows that in fact the Democratic Party became the party of Lincoln.
18
I fear putting South Carolina in Hillary's victory bag is very unlikely.
The only semi-progressive newspaper in the state (Charleston) rolls out anti-Hillary editorials continually. It has not yet endorsed Trump, but I suspect it will, the rationale not that Trump is so good, but Crooked Hillary will be a big spender, and the paper has a long history of screaming about the deficit, while defending budget busting tax breaks for the wealthy and ridiculous defense expenditures.
Locals write to the paper about how successful businessman Trump will shake things up, and how worried they are about Democrats crushing "southern values", code for racism, misogyny, and Christian Sharia Law.
And there's the inevitable: voters' ignorance and apathy, who have only learned to pull the R lever in the voting booth. More years of Joe "You Lie" Wilson and Trey "Benghazi" Gowdy, Republican stars in Congress.
The only semi-progressive newspaper in the state (Charleston) rolls out anti-Hillary editorials continually. It has not yet endorsed Trump, but I suspect it will, the rationale not that Trump is so good, but Crooked Hillary will be a big spender, and the paper has a long history of screaming about the deficit, while defending budget busting tax breaks for the wealthy and ridiculous defense expenditures.
Locals write to the paper about how successful businessman Trump will shake things up, and how worried they are about Democrats crushing "southern values", code for racism, misogyny, and Christian Sharia Law.
And there's the inevitable: voters' ignorance and apathy, who have only learned to pull the R lever in the voting booth. More years of Joe "You Lie" Wilson and Trey "Benghazi" Gowdy, Republican stars in Congress.
16
I will hand deliver a brand new $100 dollar bill to Joseph Crespino on November 9, 2016 if Hillary doesn't lose Georgia by double digits in the 2016 Presidential Election.
"Recent" polls in Georgia show something else. Three of the polls showing Hillary in the lead in Georgia were polls conducted where NO Republicans were asked to participate. It's very telling that Hillary doesn't even have a double digit lead over Trump in a poll where no Republicans were used.
And I'd be remiss if I didn't point out that the states where Hillary has her largest lead in the "polls" are polls that undersample Republican voters and play statistical games with "likely" and "registered" voters.
But the polls really don't matter. The real poll results for Georgia will happen by 7pm on Tuesday November 8th, 2016.
And I've got $100 bucks saying the polls showing Hillary leading in Georgia are bogus. Votes matter.
"Recent" polls in Georgia show something else. Three of the polls showing Hillary in the lead in Georgia were polls conducted where NO Republicans were asked to participate. It's very telling that Hillary doesn't even have a double digit lead over Trump in a poll where no Republicans were used.
And I'd be remiss if I didn't point out that the states where Hillary has her largest lead in the "polls" are polls that undersample Republican voters and play statistical games with "likely" and "registered" voters.
But the polls really don't matter. The real poll results for Georgia will happen by 7pm on Tuesday November 8th, 2016.
And I've got $100 bucks saying the polls showing Hillary leading in Georgia are bogus. Votes matter.
9
Boy, I hope you're right. I witnessed Jesse Helms in North Carolina employ that racist strategy for years that included his nitwit wife railing against "the homosexuals." All Jesse needed was two-thirds of the white vote and he could forget about the rest of North Carolina. It would be so wonderful if the South could emerge from it's legacy of racism and, as you say, transform American politics but this time in a way that is not so terribly hateful and divisive.
20
Maybe it's true. Maybe Hillary will win Georgia, and other traditionally red states. If it happens, it will be because of Trump's weakness, not Hillary's strength. Demographics and attitudes are changing, but slower than many optimistic liberals realize.
Many folks dislike Hillary. If she wins the election, she will have a chance to prove them wrong, but only if she is bold in her first term. If she is able to think and act big, bringing changes that actually affect people's lives for the better, she could be granted a second term, and thus solidify the tide of changing perspectives in the South. If she plays it safe, waiting for her second term to go big, she will reenforce the opinion that she is ineffectual and just more of the same, with reds and blues alike. In this scenario, she would almost certainly become a one-term president, with little or nothing to show for her time in office.
Courage in her first term could shift the political landscape for good. Playing it safe would set back any gains she is able to make with America's red-state voters.
Many folks dislike Hillary. If she wins the election, she will have a chance to prove them wrong, but only if she is bold in her first term. If she is able to think and act big, bringing changes that actually affect people's lives for the better, she could be granted a second term, and thus solidify the tide of changing perspectives in the South. If she plays it safe, waiting for her second term to go big, she will reenforce the opinion that she is ineffectual and just more of the same, with reds and blues alike. In this scenario, she would almost certainly become a one-term president, with little or nothing to show for her time in office.
Courage in her first term could shift the political landscape for good. Playing it safe would set back any gains she is able to make with America's red-state voters.
20
Yesterday I was in a grocery store in a rather affluent area of Palm Beach County Florida. I had early voted in the Florida primary and was wearing my "I voted" sticker. A rich man (polo shirt, tanned, no socks in leather shoes) saw my sticker and said to me "I sure hope you didn't vote for Hillary"! I smiled and said "you betcha!" So it's not just the rednecks in the rural areas.
15
This summer, I was at home visiting the Atlanta suburb where I grew up and no one I spoke to there supports Clinton. They don't like Trump either, but are supporting him begrudgingly.
14
I wonder how many people are telling pollsters they won't vote for Trump because they are just too embarrassed to admit they will.
Who would want to publicly acknowledge support for such an "unusual" candidate? Divisive, angry, no experience, etc.
Could really alter poll results.
Who would want to publicly acknowledge support for such an "unusual" candidate? Divisive, angry, no experience, etc.
Could really alter poll results.
19
Why might Hillary win Georgia? She is just Mitt Romney with a perm. She is a centrist even mildly conservative candidate with a background similar to moderate Republicans of the mid-20th century.
4
I live in an Atlanta suburb that has reliably voted Republican for years and have noticed a symptom of this. My politically active neighbors, who by now in every other Presidential election had festooned their cars and houses with bumper stickers and signs, are remarkably unadorned. Our family has been counting and has seen only 3 Trump cars and one yard sign. There have been more Hillary cars.
It is hard to describe how unusual this is in an area that still sports many Romney stickers. I'm not sure this means that these conservatives will be voting for Hillary but, at the very least, they are not enthusiastic about the opportunity of voting for Donald Trump.
It is hard to describe how unusual this is in an area that still sports many Romney stickers. I'm not sure this means that these conservatives will be voting for Hillary but, at the very least, they are not enthusiastic about the opportunity of voting for Donald Trump.
10
One would hope that the terrible racism which lurks somewhat silently in the south, especially North Carolina will not create a strong base for Trump and similar demagogue who will surely follow in his path.
6
I don't know whether it will work or not but HRC, win or lose, will have to be very grateful to the NYT for all their efforts in writing, story placement, hit pieces on opponents, etc., all in aid of their unceasing efforts to push her across the finish line. And Himself is still on Martha's Vineyard charging his batteries for the Fall offensive! He will soon return and confer his blessing and off they'll go on the last lap!
7
No one knows if she wins or not. All my friends are not going to vote her. It seems like those polls are fake.
5
Ms Clintons policies may not be as progressive as some would like but they are doable particularly if the Democrats win the Senate and make inroads in the house.
I can see a strong movement towards universal health care by creating a public option and reducing prescription drug prices. College will be more affordable for lower income people and the cost of existing loans will be substantially less .
New higher paid jobs will be created through an Infrastucture program and a renewable energy plan using USA materials and reducing further our dependency on foreign oil.
Existing jobs in the service sector will be more fairly rewarded by increasing the minimum wage, the tax code will be fairer both personal and corporate eliminating tax benefits for the rich and large corporations.
Tax rates will be realigned to the benefit of the middle class.
All this will lead to more money in the pockets of the middle class which will boost consumer expenditure which accounts for 65 percent of the GDP , it will also decrease income inequality.
This is why the good people of South Carolina and Georgia need to vote Democrat , it is the only way forward
I can see a strong movement towards universal health care by creating a public option and reducing prescription drug prices. College will be more affordable for lower income people and the cost of existing loans will be substantially less .
New higher paid jobs will be created through an Infrastucture program and a renewable energy plan using USA materials and reducing further our dependency on foreign oil.
Existing jobs in the service sector will be more fairly rewarded by increasing the minimum wage, the tax code will be fairer both personal and corporate eliminating tax benefits for the rich and large corporations.
Tax rates will be realigned to the benefit of the middle class.
All this will lead to more money in the pockets of the middle class which will boost consumer expenditure which accounts for 65 percent of the GDP , it will also decrease income inequality.
This is why the good people of South Carolina and Georgia need to vote Democrat , it is the only way forward
14
"...moderate Southern Republicans..."
I am truly at a loss to imagine what policies or ideologies would define these mythical beasts. Are they what Southern Democrats used to be? For once, I'm really not being snarky here, I am truly curious because I see no "moderate" Republican anywhere I look, in elected office at any rate.
I am truly at a loss to imagine what policies or ideologies would define these mythical beasts. Are they what Southern Democrats used to be? For once, I'm really not being snarky here, I am truly curious because I see no "moderate" Republican anywhere I look, in elected office at any rate.
12
I live in a suburban town of Augusta, and have seen so far two Trump signs - none for Hillary- in front of beautiful mansions on my commute.
In 2012, my own middle class subdivision was a full of Romney signs, but I haven't seen one yet for either and I am scared to find out learning more about my friendly neighbors in the next months.
In 2012, my own middle class subdivision was a full of Romney signs, but I haven't seen one yet for either and I am scared to find out learning more about my friendly neighbors in the next months.
4
Hillary Clinton will probably win Georgia because Trump is the worst candidate to ever run for the Presidency.
In reality, it is impossible to win the Presidency without the African American vote. People of Color decided the last Presidency in 2012, the Republicans will never learn this
As African Americans vote so goes the Presidency https://www.brookings.edu/research/minority-turnout-determined-the-2012-...
In reality, it is impossible to win the Presidency without the African American vote. People of Color decided the last Presidency in 2012, the Republicans will never learn this
As African Americans vote so goes the Presidency https://www.brookings.edu/research/minority-turnout-determined-the-2012-...
4
The Koch strategy with its success in moving local and state-level politics to the right is having a far more significant affect in the south than the outcome of presidential politics.
Just look at NC. A once progressive outlier in the south, it is now the case-study for racial gerrymandering and neo-bigotry legislation.
Overemphasizing the role of presidential politics in the South is huge mistake for progressives.
Just look at NC. A once progressive outlier in the south, it is now the case-study for racial gerrymandering and neo-bigotry legislation.
Overemphasizing the role of presidential politics in the South is huge mistake for progressives.
15
As has been said, "All politics is local."
4
What not to love with Hillary Republicans?
Neocon War Monger .. check
Untrusted..check
Owned by Wall Street .. check
Pro TTP ..Not now but very soon I'll call it a check
What is Hillary always waiting on?... A check
Neocon War Monger .. check
Untrusted..check
Owned by Wall Street .. check
Pro TTP ..Not now but very soon I'll call it a check
What is Hillary always waiting on?... A check
3
No one should presume any understanding of the South without understanding the rural South. It's always been more about class than race. And, in the end, Wash Jones killed Thomas Sutpen.
The only real evidence one has for a Republican "Southern Strategy" is Strom Thurmond. Nixon tried, badly, to reach out to African Americans with affirmative action, and finally enforcing desegregation.
Much of the appeal of the Democrats in the black community is traditional machine politics, which the Democrats are much better at than Republicans.
Much of the appeal of the Democrats in the black community is traditional machine politics, which the Democrats are much better at than Republicans.
3
The split between the business and educated people in the south and the more rural and less educated seems to have always existed. They've been united, first as Democrats in opposition to post-Civil War Republicanism then later as post-Civil Rights Act Republicans in opposition to Democratic embrace of minority rights, by racism. To move past being the national "yard youngins" we need to become a collection of two-party states.
3
I live in GA... I'm sorry to inform you all, but she does not stand a chance. I spend most of my time in Midtown, and once you start surveying the average person, and not the group of kids standing on the corner handing out LGBT fliers, it becomes clear.
It might be closer than normal, but you can bet your last dollar GA will go Trump.
It might be closer than normal, but you can bet your last dollar GA will go Trump.
7
Remembering enactment of civil rights legislation during LBJ's administration, followed by his observation, "There goes the South." The Republicans benefited from the subsequent "southern strategy," which has become as much of an albatross to them as it ha been to progressive Democrats. The current and future southern strategy looks more promising.
4
Interesting history: it shows growth in America's view of Civil Rights -- it's not about "handouts;" It's about "equal opportunity." I think all American people believe in fair competition. Sure, there are those who want a "handout" advantage, either through direct cash or indirect tax benefits. But that philosophy is a double edged sword that can cut the swordsman at the polls.
1
Watch the results of this election further down the ticket for a true assessment of changes in the South.
Trump is a one time phenomena (let us pray). That Hillary is even close is only for the reason that Trump appears as mentally unstable to the more moderate, better educated, middle class Republicans
The boys who interests (assets and income) are protected by the Republican Party are not going anywhere and they will be back with a vengeance after the smoke clears from the 2016 election. Those folks are still winning further down the ticket. That's what disturbs me.
Trump is a one time phenomena (let us pray). That Hillary is even close is only for the reason that Trump appears as mentally unstable to the more moderate, better educated, middle class Republicans
The boys who interests (assets and income) are protected by the Republican Party are not going anywhere and they will be back with a vengeance after the smoke clears from the 2016 election. Those folks are still winning further down the ticket. That's what disturbs me.
5
Be very careful: there is plenty of time for folks to change their mind and vote for Trump -- sickening thought.
5
Trump's appeal is snobbishly alleged to be to white non-college educated.
Nine-county metro Atlanta has (of course) many white college graduates, whom are probably embarrassed by Trump's blunt rhetoric.
Also rural white Georgians are apparently silently displeased about the closures of some Medicaid dependent medical facilities including emergency rooms.
Perhaps in the privacy of voting, rural whites are being tempted to vote for non-ideological, moderate Democrats.
This relatively liberal Democrat can only hope the GOP has gone too far re foolishly allowing hospital closure.
Acknowledgement: But in the previous major election, Democrats, such as governor-ambitious grandson State Senator Jason Carter, just do not seem to me to have yet benefited.
Nine-county metro Atlanta has (of course) many white college graduates, whom are probably embarrassed by Trump's blunt rhetoric.
Also rural white Georgians are apparently silently displeased about the closures of some Medicaid dependent medical facilities including emergency rooms.
Perhaps in the privacy of voting, rural whites are being tempted to vote for non-ideological, moderate Democrats.
This relatively liberal Democrat can only hope the GOP has gone too far re foolishly allowing hospital closure.
Acknowledgement: But in the previous major election, Democrats, such as governor-ambitious grandson State Senator Jason Carter, just do not seem to me to have yet benefited.
2
The erstwhile socially liberal, born and raised NYC-er currently parading as the republican party's bombastic nominee feigning lunacy. Deeeelcious! Love to see our south-of-the-Mason-Dixon-line brethren squirm not knowing which end is up.
2
It is a myth that racist southerners switched from being Democrats to being Southerners during the sixties and seventies. The Dixiecrats are still Democrats in the South. Liberals feed the narrative that they were civil rights advocates, but it was Republican legislators who changed the laws. Democrats are still the party of corruption, as evidenced by Hillary.
3
All of this before the debates. It is not a stretch to imagine that Donald will get pummeled, that is if he decdes to show up...and if he does not show up, he might as well throw in the towel.
1
Of course she stands a fighting chance in southern bastions ... she is essentially a Republican, albeit an old-school Republican. Regardless of what her supporters say. Period. True progressives haven't had a voice in American politics in decades.
3
Don't you mean, Mr. Crespino, that Roger Ailes pulled it off artfully when you say, "Richard M. Nixon pulled it off artfully in his two successful campaigns, appearing mostly in Southern cities and suburbs and letting Thurmond work the Deep South circuit. Ronald Reagan folded in religious conservatives in the 1980s to replace the generation of Dixiecrats dying off, thus consolidating the powerful mix of cultural reaction and economic conservatism that is modern Republicanism."
Yes, Mr. lie-hate-fear-anger himself, the late king of fox so-called news Roger Ailes, was Nixon and Regan's adviser - and now is The Don's. Who needs any other reason to send them all packing on November 8 and every election before and after? Lies-hate-fear-anger are indigestible to most people over the long run and Mr. Ailes and the crooks, woman-hating and violence he promotes have had much too long a run.
Yes, Mr. lie-hate-fear-anger himself, the late king of fox so-called news Roger Ailes, was Nixon and Regan's adviser - and now is The Don's. Who needs any other reason to send them all packing on November 8 and every election before and after? Lies-hate-fear-anger are indigestible to most people over the long run and Mr. Ailes and the crooks, woman-hating and violence he promotes have had much too long a run.
12
Roger Ailes.
How is it that he's only 76? I was a child when he started his career as a political blight on this country and now I am an old man.
How is it that he's only 76? I was a child when he started his career as a political blight on this country and now I am an old man.
4
Indeed Hillary might win Republican areas. She is very like the better sort of Republican, or what they imagine that would be.
It is convenient for her that there is no Progressive running, so it is all a right wing contest.
It won't be so convenient if the whole faction she ousted responds by not bothering to vote for just another flavor of Republican.
It is convenient for her that there is no Progressive running, so it is all a right wing contest.
It won't be so convenient if the whole faction she ousted responds by not bothering to vote for just another flavor of Republican.
10
Nice dogwhistle there, but her voting record says different.
3
Give it a rest, Mark. Her policies and Bernie's were so closely aligned you could barely see a sliver of daylight between them. That is simply a fact.
2
@ MArk - please, please just go and read HRC's policy positions. Not sure what it is you really want, but this is a big and varied country, and not everyone is progressive as you would like. Your conviction that Hillary is actually a Republican Light is not only incorrect, it also serves to make people stay home instead of voting. And that, is what got us into this fine mess to start with.
5
"What might be happening instead is something new in the South: true two-party politics, in which an urban liberal-moderate Democratic Party fights for votes in the increasingly multiethnic metropolitan South against an increasingly rural, nationalistic Republican Party."
Nonsense. What your analysis ignores is the constant strain of white racism that runs through the GOP since Goldwater, both South and North. Regan did more than pull evangelicals in; he painted a smiley yellow face on the GOP's white pointed hat and shared that hat North and South.
When I came to Michigan in 1980 the GOP was running against "Detroit. in language that was easily decoded by white Michiganders; they continue to do so this year. Regan began his successful campaign in Philadelphia. Mississippi, shamefully preaching "states rights" within miles of the site white racists murdered four little black girl in their church.
But the smiley face is crucial sugar-coating to allow pansy whites to swallow that nasty racist pill. They're comfortable marching in the GOP's KKK style parade, but only if they can hide their faces. Trump's naked appeal excludes those who need to tell themselves that they're not racists, they just play one in politics. In fact, since 1960, in every election in every state, the GOP has made it's bones, waving the bloody rag.
Nonsense. What your analysis ignores is the constant strain of white racism that runs through the GOP since Goldwater, both South and North. Regan did more than pull evangelicals in; he painted a smiley yellow face on the GOP's white pointed hat and shared that hat North and South.
When I came to Michigan in 1980 the GOP was running against "Detroit. in language that was easily decoded by white Michiganders; they continue to do so this year. Regan began his successful campaign in Philadelphia. Mississippi, shamefully preaching "states rights" within miles of the site white racists murdered four little black girl in their church.
But the smiley face is crucial sugar-coating to allow pansy whites to swallow that nasty racist pill. They're comfortable marching in the GOP's KKK style parade, but only if they can hide their faces. Trump's naked appeal excludes those who need to tell themselves that they're not racists, they just play one in politics. In fact, since 1960, in every election in every state, the GOP has made it's bones, waving the bloody rag.
26
What is your explanation for NYC having the most segregated school system in the nation? Dixiecrats, or could it just be that all Democrats are racist?
4
My friend who lives in Atlanta told me that Atlanta is the North Pole of the south. You can only go south once you leave Atlanta. The North Pole metro is getting bigger and bigger and the south is shrinking rapidly.
18
I have watched my home town become a solidly Blue part of the Mid-Atlantic. It was deep Red even 4 decades ago. Tim Kaine is one example of how VA itself has changed.
We white Southerners will be dragged kicking and screaming into the present day. It may take more Yankee immigration, secular Millennials, and non-white voters here to tip the scales for good, but it is happening. Amen to that.
We white Southerners will be dragged kicking and screaming into the present day. It may take more Yankee immigration, secular Millennials, and non-white voters here to tip the scales for good, but it is happening. Amen to that.
9
The thing is about money that Clinton invests in Polls and it is not about Poles
1
Georgia on my mind. Ray Charles expressed the beauty he saw in this state like someone you deeply love. But this love is incompatable with the haters who would keep her in the past. Will we finally see the South rise again not reflecting its slavery past, but with a fresh identity that shows its respect for all its citizens?
10
I'm a transplanted New Yorker. I don't see this happening yet. Yes, the demographics have changed due to people like me coming in, growing hispanic and millennial populations, and refugee resettlement - Clarkston, GA. for e.g., has changed from 89% white to 82% non-white according to PBS World over the past 30 years. Clarkston was handpicked as a refugee destination and resettlement organizations are now looking at Tucker, just outside Atlanta.
But, despite all these changes, it's hard to see a Clinton victory really happening given the outcomes in the most recent Senate and Governor's races when Michelle Nunn and Jason Carter both lost- and lost decisively.
But, despite all these changes, it's hard to see a Clinton victory really happening given the outcomes in the most recent Senate and Governor's races when Michelle Nunn and Jason Carter both lost- and lost decisively.
5
I am also a transplanted New Yorker, and the South didn't turn Republican until northerners started their migration south. There were few congressmen, governors, mayors that were Republicans until well into the 1980's, except in the urban areas. The nucleus of Republicanism in the South was the result of Republicans moving South. The urban areas of the South, like in the North, have been ruled by Democrats for decades, which is why most of them are hotbed of poor, undereducated, ignorant Democrats. What is shocking to the Democrats is that some of them are awakening to the poor policies of Hillary. The Donald Trump wild card is a better bet for the working people than the certainty of a third Obama term.
1
To the copy editor: I found the following error in the last paragraph:
"What might be happening instead is something new in the South: true two-party politics, in which an urban liberal-moderate Democratic Party fights for votes in the increasingly multiethnic metropolitan South against an increasingly rural, nationalistic Republican Party..."
It should read "What might be happening instead is something new in the South: true two-party politics, in which an urban liberal-moderate, **nationalistic** Democratic Party fights for votes in the increasingly multiethnic metropolitan South against an increasingly rural, nationalistic Republican Party..."
When it comes to blind, flag-waving patriotism, this race is truly neck-and-neck. Or given the history of the deep South and Ms. Clinton's "super-predator" past, maybe one should say "noose-and-noose"?
"What might be happening instead is something new in the South: true two-party politics, in which an urban liberal-moderate Democratic Party fights for votes in the increasingly multiethnic metropolitan South against an increasingly rural, nationalistic Republican Party..."
It should read "What might be happening instead is something new in the South: true two-party politics, in which an urban liberal-moderate, **nationalistic** Democratic Party fights for votes in the increasingly multiethnic metropolitan South against an increasingly rural, nationalistic Republican Party..."
When it comes to blind, flag-waving patriotism, this race is truly neck-and-neck. Or given the history of the deep South and Ms. Clinton's "super-predator" past, maybe one should say "noose-and-noose"?
2
If only the shift would translate to the South's down ticket candidates where many of the Republicans running for Congress not only have supported Trump but have long held positions more outrageous than his. Democrats would be wise to expose them.
16
Can we all agree the Giant Orange Orangutan danger is now past? All hail the new plutocrats, just like the old ones. Until four years from now, when we will once more be required to pull the lever for Goldman Sachs in order to oppose Ayatollah Ted, or some other swamp dwelling troglodyte.
Ain't "democracy" grand?
Ain't "democracy" grand?
11
We are never going to get as progressive a President or Congress as I would like to see. After McGovern lost to Nixon, I figured that out. So I'm happy for some progressive legislation and actions in the last 44 years - the Affordable Care Act included - and will continue to work really hard every year to elect the lesser of two evils. Yes, it's important to know that Hillary and Kaine (and Bernie too) are compromised imperfect candidates. But it's more important to keep the " troglodyte" out of office. I remember Reagan.
6
As moderate wealth, educational opportunities and corporate industry expend in the South, a more rational thought process will evolve, both ing politics, as well as in life, in general.
https://thetruthoncommonsense.com
https://thetruthoncommonsense.com
9
.
.
In 2012 (and maybe still today), states such as Virginia and Iowa were considered "purple". Their votes in national elections didn't reliably match their votes in local elections, and they could shade reddish or bluish. Sometimes it just depended upon who was running; Democratic Governors over the years tended more toward progressivism than their predecessors.
Let's not forget that Iowa sends Steve King to Congress from its northwestern quarter. Mr. King's outrageous statements have included asserting that children immigrating from Mexico have leg muscles the size of cantaloupes from smuggling heavy loads of drugs on foot into the US. And Virginia quite recently felt comfortable electing George Allen (Jr.) to statewide office. Mr. Allen once called out to a Democratic operative who frequented his rallies with a videocamera. The US-born (and US citizen) operative had ethnicity and skin color similar to SC Gov. Nikki Haley or former Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. Mr. Allen used a racial slur common in Allen's mother's country of Tunisia, then welcomed the operative "to Virginia and the real United States." So although Iowa and Virginia have been comfortable for Democrats in national races some years, they do have unpleasant tendencies.
Georgia and Arizona are the next states to "go purple"; they should be followed next decade by Texas. Business growth in those states, and strong universities, mean thoughtful voters. Trump could win Georgia, but it won't be by a wide margin.
.
In 2012 (and maybe still today), states such as Virginia and Iowa were considered "purple". Their votes in national elections didn't reliably match their votes in local elections, and they could shade reddish or bluish. Sometimes it just depended upon who was running; Democratic Governors over the years tended more toward progressivism than their predecessors.
Let's not forget that Iowa sends Steve King to Congress from its northwestern quarter. Mr. King's outrageous statements have included asserting that children immigrating from Mexico have leg muscles the size of cantaloupes from smuggling heavy loads of drugs on foot into the US. And Virginia quite recently felt comfortable electing George Allen (Jr.) to statewide office. Mr. Allen once called out to a Democratic operative who frequented his rallies with a videocamera. The US-born (and US citizen) operative had ethnicity and skin color similar to SC Gov. Nikki Haley or former Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. Mr. Allen used a racial slur common in Allen's mother's country of Tunisia, then welcomed the operative "to Virginia and the real United States." So although Iowa and Virginia have been comfortable for Democrats in national races some years, they do have unpleasant tendencies.
Georgia and Arizona are the next states to "go purple"; they should be followed next decade by Texas. Business growth in those states, and strong universities, mean thoughtful voters. Trump could win Georgia, but it won't be by a wide margin.
4
Trump is not a one-off GOP nominee. He is it! He is the one! An eminently logical result of persistent pandering to the fears and racial animus of an electorate that now dominates the party's "voice". Even after a probable resounding defeat of Trump, the party will be compelled to retain the core of his vile message in order to soldier on - all the while diminishing and disgracing and destroying itself.
10
Right on! If Donald Trump lived to be 100 years old, he could run to be the Republican Nominee for President and without ever having to campaign or change his message could win the nomination. Just think, 7 more Republican Conventions, just like the last one!
GOLDWATER Was truly prescient when, in describing the South, he said, That's where the ducks are. Well guess what folks. that's where Trump has Ducked into town, greeted by much crowing from the deluded GOP members whose narratives resemble his. The southern states are turning purple, with the influx of young people who favor liberal policies. Now Clinton is showing strength in the South. I believe that given another 80 or so days of Trump's loco loquacity, the scales may tip in Hillary's favor. I suspect that the GOP, that allowed itself to be bamboozled by a demented, narcissistic fool, will fare little better in the future. Trump may well wish he was in Dixie, but he will not be greeted with fanfares, leave alone crowds of fans.
4
Mr. Trump is simply unacceptable to anyone with even a modicum of political understanding. Ms. Clinton with all of her baggage is the safer option. It is not a question of which candidate is better, but which one is worse.
7
I will believe the long-term transformation of the old Confederacy to a purple hue when I see it. Virginia offers a ray of hope but once-purple North Carolina seems to have settled back into deeper regression than it was in the bad old days of Jesse Helms.
The systematic decimation of voting fairness throughout The South following the blighted Supreme Court destruction of the 1965 Voting Rights Act demonstrates dramatically that Jim Crow continues to lurk under the turbid waters of southern politics.
Dixie ain't blue yet, at least not politically.
www.endthemadnessnow.org
The systematic decimation of voting fairness throughout The South following the blighted Supreme Court destruction of the 1965 Voting Rights Act demonstrates dramatically that Jim Crow continues to lurk under the turbid waters of southern politics.
Dixie ain't blue yet, at least not politically.
www.endthemadnessnow.org
6
Black voters have the lowest turnout proportions in the nation in Massachusetts.
The SCOTUS decision did not decimate the Voting Rights Act. All the ruling did was to stipulate that the law was to be applied in exactly the same way in every state in the union. Too bad you listen to the talking points of Democrats rather than actually reading the decision.
When are you going to be concerned about the fact that black voting rights are suppressed in Massachusetts?
The SCOTUS decision did not decimate the Voting Rights Act. All the ruling did was to stipulate that the law was to be applied in exactly the same way in every state in the union. Too bad you listen to the talking points of Democrats rather than actually reading the decision.
When are you going to be concerned about the fact that black voting rights are suppressed in Massachusetts?
1
I still can't get over the recent Supreme Court decision on the 1965 Voting Rights Act and especially Chief Justice Roberts position. I guess if you didn't live in Mississippi and actually be threaten with your life if you tried to register to vote, or if you didn't see the movie "Driving Miss Daisy" or watch the movie "Selma" you wouldn't know what was going on, then and now.
2
[[Atlanta — Recent polls show something that has caught even the most optimistic liberals by surprise: Hillary Clinton is tied with Donald J. Trump in Georgia, catching up with him in South Carolina and generally showing strength in traditionally Republican parts of the South.]]
Which polls? Who ran them? When? What was the method and sample size?
And Hillary Clinton is not a liberal.
Have a nice day.
Which polls? Who ran them? When? What was the method and sample size?
And Hillary Clinton is not a liberal.
Have a nice day.
6
I would not confuse the repugnant response to Trump as a basis of support for Clinton or the Democratic Party. Polls mean nothing in a presidential election when both major parties offer us unwanted candidates.
6
A fine piece that describes the changing demographics of some Southern states. Both Georgia and North Carolina are "South Light" with large metropolitan areas where an influx of Yankees has changed the electorate. Educational institutions of high esteem in both states attract faculty and students from all over the U.S. and abroad. This demographic will naturally gravitate to more moderate and even liberal positons.
Alabama, Mississippi and, to a lesser extent, South Carolina remain firmly entrenched in the "white guy is king" syndrome and actively discourage Blacks and Latinos from voting. Mississippi, in particular, has the largest percentage of Black residents in the United States yet they are hardly a froce in most elections for a number of reasons.
The times are changing and after this election the GOP, if it doesn't hand its fringe right wing element walking papers, won't need a postmortem, but the a "Lazarus" coming back from the dead.
Alabama, Mississippi and, to a lesser extent, South Carolina remain firmly entrenched in the "white guy is king" syndrome and actively discourage Blacks and Latinos from voting. Mississippi, in particular, has the largest percentage of Black residents in the United States yet they are hardly a froce in most elections for a number of reasons.
The times are changing and after this election the GOP, if it doesn't hand its fringe right wing element walking papers, won't need a postmortem, but the a "Lazarus" coming back from the dead.
6
The South became Republican after the migration of the Northerners. The South was solidly Democrat until the mid to late 1980's. It was the Democrats who denied the vote to minorities.
Black voter turnout as a proportion of the black population is lowest in Massachusetts. Explain that.
Black voter turnout as a proportion of the black population is lowest in Massachusetts. Explain that.
1
I will be out voting for Hillary and Democrats in November, and my wife is finally registering to vote in order to do the same. I don't know anyone planning to vote for Trump.
19
Robert, your a lucky guy.
Being a citizen of a 1st world country where we have open racism in a presidential campaign and even publicly acknowledging whole states as "traditionally racist" is beyond my ability to understand human brain. I guess the United States can be called "borderline 1st world country with occasional dip into the mud".
7
Where have you been for the past 400 years? This country was founded on slavery, extermination of the indigenous population, and unrelenting exploitation of the poor. Racism has been the tool that has kept the poor divided and hating each other ... racism is nothing new in America. It's baked into the soil.
3
There is nothing more third world than having the wife of a term limited president anointed president. Name one first world country where they have elected the wife of a former chief executive as the chief executive.
Of all of the talented, hard working, accomplished women in the country, the only female candidate the Democrats could come up with is the wife of the disbarred, only elected president in history to have been impeached. Despite his womanizing, his theft from the poor in the world and his corruption, his coattails are still good enough to buy the Democrat nomination for his wife.
Of all of the talented, hard working, accomplished women in the country, the only female candidate the Democrats could come up with is the wife of the disbarred, only elected president in history to have been impeached. Despite his womanizing, his theft from the poor in the world and his corruption, his coattails are still good enough to buy the Democrat nomination for his wife.
3
Hillary will win because she is the best candidate and will make the best president.
34
She is just the lesser evil, and only by a little. You will see Hillary Nixon.
7
I'll be surprised if she doesn't get us in another war...Iran most likely.
She appeals to the same people to whom Nixon appealed. That says it all.
2
Can you imagine how much the democrats would be crushing it in this election if their candidate was actually likable.
Going forward, the GOP has a much bigger problem than what this race is likely to show. Hillary will only be around for, at most, one more election, but, the Trump voters will be poking holes in the bottom of the GOP's boat for many years to come.
Going forward, the GOP has a much bigger problem than what this race is likely to show. Hillary will only be around for, at most, one more election, but, the Trump voters will be poking holes in the bottom of the GOP's boat for many years to come.
8
Michael: "Likable" is measured how?
7
If Joe Biden or Jerry Brown were running instead of Hillary Democrats would have a lock on a landslide. However, Hillary will likely be elected despite her high negatives, will then prove to be an excellent President and be re-elected in 2020.
1
Hillary's corruption is a bigger millstone around her neck than her personality, at least with independents. Democrats expect lies and corruption from their elected officials. Independents and Republicans tend to shy away from overt corruption.
1
Make no mistake that the 2016 election is unique - more unique even than Barack Obama's run in 2008. From an historical perspective Donald Trump may be the worst major party's candidate in our nation's history. His combination of near total ignorance about our system of governance, coupled with bigoted, hateful, insulting, and just plain nonsensical remarks put him in a class by himself. When have prominent members of one party absolutely abandoned their party's candidate to publicly support the other party's candidate? The answer would be "never." Hillary Clinton may win Georgia and Arizona and even utah, but no one should assume these are now D states.
121
Here we go again, more liberal wishful thinking.
You would think our better "educated" liberal posters would realize that rural counties not only in Georgia but throughout our country are disproportionately represented in most state houses.
Which simply means that no matter how "blue" urban areas in a state may get none of this changes the electorial calculus until someone figures out a way to change the hearts and minds of those who live in "red" rural America.
You would think our better "educated" liberal posters would realize that rural counties not only in Georgia but throughout our country are disproportionately represented in most state houses.
Which simply means that no matter how "blue" urban areas in a state may get none of this changes the electorial calculus until someone figures out a way to change the hearts and minds of those who live in "red" rural America.
34
Mike
One way to do it is to make EVERY federal funding bill include a provision that states agree to certain requirements, or no federal money.
One example is no federal highway funds (at 90% of the total cost) unless the state imposes speed limits, or seatbelt laws. You can do the same hing for many other programs. The RED states suck up more than one Federal dollar for every Federal dollar they pay in taxes, and the rich BLUE states supply the extra money. Talk about "income redistribution." Conservatives are supposed to be all upset with income redistribution, except when that income is being "redistributed" to them.
Hypocrites.
One way to do it is to make EVERY federal funding bill include a provision that states agree to certain requirements, or no federal money.
One example is no federal highway funds (at 90% of the total cost) unless the state imposes speed limits, or seatbelt laws. You can do the same hing for many other programs. The RED states suck up more than one Federal dollar for every Federal dollar they pay in taxes, and the rich BLUE states supply the extra money. Talk about "income redistribution." Conservatives are supposed to be all upset with income redistribution, except when that income is being "redistributed" to them.
Hypocrites.
5
Agreed, but doing that is very difficult and the danger is that one adopts their positions.
I am puzzled by this post. Of course, rural Georgia voters will choose Trump enthusiastically and will not be easily converted to the "D" column anytime soon. The point of the article is that the electoral arithmetic is changing because there are fewer of these rural voters and more of the city folk. Carrying Georgia in a presidential race involves getting more votes than one's opponent(s) whether those votes be urban or rural.
MY TOP FOUR REASONS WHY YOU WON'T GET THE 'BLACK' VOTE, DONNY.
Aside from the usual chronicle of your sordid history of ugliness, here are four reasons I believe you're barking up the wrong tree, dude.
4. Most of us can't hear you. Shockingly, the overwhelming majority of us aren't waiting with baited breath for you to lift us out of poverty, get us out jail, or give us access to education.
3. Those among us who can hear you are being banned from the voting booth. By your team. Think about that, Einstein. There are about a dozen voter ID laws designed to 'block the vote.' Can't put you in office if you're throwing shade on the lever.
2. Your angry black base and your angry white base can't be in the same room, let alone anywhere near the same polling place. And since you told your AWB to be on the lookout for "voter fraud," they'll be standing at the booths with dogs and water hoses.
1. We don't like you. Ninety-nine percent, Donald. We are the largest, most unified block of the electorate to stand against you - more unified than Hispanics, more unified than Muslims, more unified than women. I find this hilarious, because we don't, as a rule, move in tandem on things. Except you. We're obviously in agreement about the political abomination that is you.
#WhatDoYouHaveToLose? Only our souls. I'm not mad at you, Donny. But all the same, I pass.
Aside from the usual chronicle of your sordid history of ugliness, here are four reasons I believe you're barking up the wrong tree, dude.
4. Most of us can't hear you. Shockingly, the overwhelming majority of us aren't waiting with baited breath for you to lift us out of poverty, get us out jail, or give us access to education.
3. Those among us who can hear you are being banned from the voting booth. By your team. Think about that, Einstein. There are about a dozen voter ID laws designed to 'block the vote.' Can't put you in office if you're throwing shade on the lever.
2. Your angry black base and your angry white base can't be in the same room, let alone anywhere near the same polling place. And since you told your AWB to be on the lookout for "voter fraud," they'll be standing at the booths with dogs and water hoses.
1. We don't like you. Ninety-nine percent, Donald. We are the largest, most unified block of the electorate to stand against you - more unified than Hispanics, more unified than Muslims, more unified than women. I find this hilarious, because we don't, as a rule, move in tandem on things. Except you. We're obviously in agreement about the political abomination that is you.
#WhatDoYouHaveToLose? Only our souls. I'm not mad at you, Donny. But all the same, I pass.
21
Notwithstanding the depth and informative content of this article, it has been quite clear for some time that the political turmoil in the United States resembles highly what may be called the countryside vs. the city. Interestingly, it is played out in other lands it appears, such as Iran. Although it is simplistic to draw the distinction, America seems ever more divided between an urban/suburban scientific & technically literate pluralistic consistency, and the reactionary fearful vestigial remains of the Protestant branch of Christianity in its countryside.
5
Discussion is difficult when the basic terms are not defined. Trump refers to the current GOP as the party of Lincoln. With Lincoln's death, "his" party changed, and became mean and vengeful towards the South, a fact that turned the South Democratic and Dixiecratic. Both parties changed over the years. Now, Democrats are castigated as "liberal Democrats" while no one would dream of calling a Republican "liberal."
The Southern Strategy changed the face of politics. Goldwater may have had a narrow focus, but, in general, the GOP went after every white vote they could get, including the professionals mentioned in the article and the "poorly-educated" beloved of Trump.
This new GOP is so devoid of any kind of policy that isn't based on greed and selfishness that they are forced to rely on personal attacks that impugn a candidate's veracity, policies, and even health. They cry "wolf" so often, their cries are taken by more and more simply to signal lies.
The Southern Strategy changed the face of politics. Goldwater may have had a narrow focus, but, in general, the GOP went after every white vote they could get, including the professionals mentioned in the article and the "poorly-educated" beloved of Trump.
This new GOP is so devoid of any kind of policy that isn't based on greed and selfishness that they are forced to rely on personal attacks that impugn a candidate's veracity, policies, and even health. They cry "wolf" so often, their cries are taken by more and more simply to signal lies.
6
Georgia is to the Democrats as Pennsylvania is to the Republicans. Always just out of reach.
1
It is important that Hillary have as many states in play to win, not because she is a bargain by any means, but the alternate, the bigoted, race baiting, ego maniac demagogue Trump is light yrs worse.
Our founding father Hamilton, in both the beginning and end of his Federalist papers did not say beware of Hillary or Obama or Bush or Kerry or McCain, he said beware of the demagogue (Trump), he is the most danger to a democracy..
Our founding father Hamilton, in both the beginning and end of his Federalist papers did not say beware of Hillary or Obama or Bush or Kerry or McCain, he said beware of the demagogue (Trump), he is the most danger to a democracy..
2
If Georgia does indeed swing toward blue in this election, it will be mostly because of who Donald Trump is and what Atlanta has become. Atlanta fancies itself an international city, an image promoted by its hosting of the Olympics and its development as an international airport hub. Its ruling corporate elite cannot let it be seen as an "old South" bastion of redneck racism still fighting the Civil War. Bad for business. Although Trump, like his Republican predecessors, mostly dog-whistles his black racism, he is blatant with his brown and Muslim bigotry so a Georgia vote for Trump would belie the multicultural, "too busy to hate" image Atlanta's business elite have so carefully crafted. Of course, outside Atlanta is a different story.
3
All across America it is the liberal cities, suburbs, and to some extent the ex-urbs on one side and the conservative, sometimes reactionary, rural communities on the other. As some of the rural areas become less hard right, the liberal agenda will become the dominant agenda. For one thing, the rural areas are in general losing population, especially the you er generation, who see their futures in the more populous parts of the country.
For example, Denver is a magnet for the rural population in a 500 mile radius. Denver is the center of a blue island in a sea of red.
Atlanta could be the same.
For example, Denver is a magnet for the rural population in a 500 mile radius. Denver is the center of a blue island in a sea of red.
Atlanta could be the same.
1
Historical tends notwithstanding, this cycle it's also a matter of demographics. Many natives such as I have relocated to Georgia after experiencing life elsewhere. Call it progressivism if you like, but I consider it moderation in mind, body and spirit which, in general, embodies a healthier lifestyle.
7
What this column doesn't take into account are the recent primary and results from this past summer, where hard left black progressives were ousted in favor of Republican-lite Democrats across the Atlanta area.
Sharon-Barnes Sutton, a terribly corrupt and vocal supporter of Black Lives Matter, waged a race-tinged campaign agaisnt her opponent Steve Bradshaw, and was soundly beaten (75% to 25%). This was widely covered in the Atlanta Journal Constitution and various local papers. The same pattern was repeated across the metro-Atlanta area.
Add this to the fact that even Democrats in GA tend to think well of Governor Deal and our GOP Senators, and the fact that black Democrats in the house continue to follow in the footsteps of Cynthia McKinney, and I just don't see a groundswell for Clinton on the horizon.
What I am starting to see is separation between what high-level polls predict, and what local sentiment seems to indicate. The same thing happened with Brexit - all of the polls indicated a vote for Remain. But anyone who was out talking to people who aren't as likely to be on social media, or to participate in a poll, would have told you that it was going to be close. And it wasn't just close, it was a significant win for the side that was regularly attacked and belittled by the media.
In a world where the media uses polls to generate copy, and a world where the media is loathed by any on the right, does it still makes sense to weight polls so heavily?
Sharon-Barnes Sutton, a terribly corrupt and vocal supporter of Black Lives Matter, waged a race-tinged campaign agaisnt her opponent Steve Bradshaw, and was soundly beaten (75% to 25%). This was widely covered in the Atlanta Journal Constitution and various local papers. The same pattern was repeated across the metro-Atlanta area.
Add this to the fact that even Democrats in GA tend to think well of Governor Deal and our GOP Senators, and the fact that black Democrats in the house continue to follow in the footsteps of Cynthia McKinney, and I just don't see a groundswell for Clinton on the horizon.
What I am starting to see is separation between what high-level polls predict, and what local sentiment seems to indicate. The same thing happened with Brexit - all of the polls indicated a vote for Remain. But anyone who was out talking to people who aren't as likely to be on social media, or to participate in a poll, would have told you that it was going to be close. And it wasn't just close, it was a significant win for the side that was regularly attacked and belittled by the media.
In a world where the media uses polls to generate copy, and a world where the media is loathed by any on the right, does it still makes sense to weight polls so heavily?
15
I would only note that following through with your Brexit analogy, many of those who voted for it didn't think it would actually happen and immediately came to regret their vote.
3
Here in MS white urban moderates and blacks joined together supporting Sen. Thad Cochran to defeat the redneck Tea Party candidate two years ago, so the theme here is correct.
Why Hillary might win Georgia? Simple, she's center-right. The Republicans have moved so far to the right and dragged the Dems with them that the Dems are now where the Republican opposition to the liberal platform should be. Republicans are waking up to this, but what are the liberals in this country supposed to do? We're being left behind and forgotten about but by our public
So congrats Hillary and Dems on gaining ground in a solid red state, you've left your base behind you and are changing history. I just don't think history will look at this the way you think it will.
So congrats Hillary and Dems on gaining ground in a solid red state, you've left your base behind you and are changing history. I just don't think history will look at this the way you think it will.
2
Why Hillary might win Georgia? Simple, she's center-right. The Republicans have moved so far to the right and dragged the Dems with them that the Dems are now where the Republican opposition to the liberal platform should be. Republicans are waking up to this, but what are the liberals in this country supposed to do? We're being left behind and forgotten about but by our public officals.
So congrats Hillary and Dems on gaining ground in a solid red state, you've left your base behind you and are changing history. I just don't think history will look at this the way you think it will.
So congrats Hillary and Dems on gaining ground in a solid red state, you've left your base behind you and are changing history. I just don't think history will look at this the way you think it will.
4
Sorry, but the #1 hater of guns and the NRA, and the person who said a 9-month-old fetus has no constitutional rights, is not center-right. Not even close. And with respect to her interventionist center-right foreign policy, it has been an unmitigated disaster.
J: Mo dhuine: I have not been left behind. I never depended on a politician to decide what I believe or what I support. Voting is both a duty and a pragmatic exercise. Turn it into some faux religious ritual and forget about it.
I haven't met a "moderate" Republican in years. They dutifully voted for Bush 1 after Reagan exploded the deficits, then for Bush 2 's second term with no misgivings about his disastrous Iraq war, then they dutifully voted for Sarah Palin, not caring about placing her so close to the Oval Office.
I don't believe their supposed doubts about Trump. Since there is no way to verify who they really vote for in the privacy of the voting booth (except what they say) they can have it both ways. Tax cuts matter first, always.
I don't believe their supposed doubts about Trump. Since there is no way to verify who they really vote for in the privacy of the voting booth (except what they say) they can have it both ways. Tax cuts matter first, always.
4
The moderate Republicans (like Linc Chaffee, Jim Jeffords, or Chuck Hagel) either left on their own or else were chased out ca. GWB's follies & Obama's election. They're persona non grata in the GOP now, seen as RINOs by the *real* RINOs, formerly referred to as the lunatic fringe but now the party "mainstream," if you can legitimately term rowdies, yahoos, & demagogues "mainstream" *any*thing....
1
There are many typically Republican voters in the state who will not be voting for Trump, despite the R by his name, because they recognize him for the grossly unqualified, dangerously demagogic candidate he is. That is great.
Many, of course, will still vote for Trump because he's a Republican and Democrats are [insert one of a thousand pejoratives here]. How do they know this? Because right-wing talk has told them so.
Leaving the rise of right-wing media out of this analysis was a glaring omission on the part of the author. How we got here is one thing; why we are stuck here is another. Right-wing media has kept alive the myth of white victimhood and laid it squarely at the feet of Democrats, i.e., poor people of color, intellectuals, non-Christians, the media, etc. And as long as Fox News et. al., has them distracted, they never notice how the Republicans picking their pocket and giving everything to the already rich.
Many, of course, will still vote for Trump because he's a Republican and Democrats are [insert one of a thousand pejoratives here]. How do they know this? Because right-wing talk has told them so.
Leaving the rise of right-wing media out of this analysis was a glaring omission on the part of the author. How we got here is one thing; why we are stuck here is another. Right-wing media has kept alive the myth of white victimhood and laid it squarely at the feet of Democrats, i.e., poor people of color, intellectuals, non-Christians, the media, etc. And as long as Fox News et. al., has them distracted, they never notice how the Republicans picking their pocket and giving everything to the already rich.
6
As Nixon did......now that's chilling!
3
I wonder if the use of the word liberal is really meaningful in this essay. It seems to me the real divide in the country is urban/suburban vs. exurban rather than liberal vs. conservative. The ever growing concentration of wealth and power in the large metropolises is working to erase the historic alignments and boundaries.
Another "wishful thinking" article by the New York Times. I would agree wholeheartedly if Hillary Clinton had a history of being honest and ethical, and if she hadn't gone from dead broke to over $100 million giving speeches to any group that would pay here fee. But she isn't and she didn't.
3
A gross simplification from a 3rd rate political analyst and Rush listener.
9
With just over two months left in the campaign, and the polls in Georgia and Arizona showing the race being in play, the joke that has become Trump's campaign is beyond repair.
Trump's jokers running his campaign, with the heavy lifting being done by FOX "News", specifically Sean Hannity, trying their hardest to drag Trump over the Finish Line is truly a sight to behold. How will they control this obvious buffoon, this bull in a china shop.
When will Republicans start to wake-up and begin to listen to their damage control autopsies performed on their '08 and '12 campaigns? They continue to ignore calls to become more inclusive. They do the very opposite, and this time they have managed to nominate beyond all reason the most divisive candidate in modern times, a racist, sexist, blowhard with no experience in politics, a profession which depends highly upon being skilled in the fine art of diplomacy, an area sorely lacking by Trump.
Will the Republicans finally take heed to their critics after this election? We shall see.
DD
Manhattan
Trump's jokers running his campaign, with the heavy lifting being done by FOX "News", specifically Sean Hannity, trying their hardest to drag Trump over the Finish Line is truly a sight to behold. How will they control this obvious buffoon, this bull in a china shop.
When will Republicans start to wake-up and begin to listen to their damage control autopsies performed on their '08 and '12 campaigns? They continue to ignore calls to become more inclusive. They do the very opposite, and this time they have managed to nominate beyond all reason the most divisive candidate in modern times, a racist, sexist, blowhard with no experience in politics, a profession which depends highly upon being skilled in the fine art of diplomacy, an area sorely lacking by Trump.
Will the Republicans finally take heed to their critics after this election? We shall see.
DD
Manhattan
3
HRC, whom I am voting for, sounds like a Republican at heart (like she was in her formative years in Illinois) but one who can make a deal and get things done--hopefully, (but also doubtfully, as the array of advisors to Trump are positioning themselves to thwart Pres. Clinton as a prelude to the 2020 election). HRC, like Reagan, can makes such deals, whereas Reagan leaned too far right; perhaps HRC can lean more leftward and get the nation on a left of center course.
2
The election can be summed up to large degree in an old phrase: metro vs. retro. it's too bad the non metro part is retro. There is no intrinsic reason it has to be that way.
4
AG: Intrinsic? Rural communities began as self-sufficient families and small communities. They learned that he word "civilized" was derived from Latin, city, and that therefore, they were not civilized. Some also knew the derivations of the words "heathen" and "pagan," both slurs on rural people, whether German or Italian. That cities breed wealth and ostentation and vice is reflected in the stories of Sodom and Gomorrah and in reactions of people like Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson to disasters that befell NYC and New Orleans.
Apropos of this column and its Comments- I would agree this column seems premature; notwithstanding the haters, somehow, some way, the Times seems to be able to draw reasonable comments from all sides on almost any subject without the entire site being dragged into the bog as happens too often at so many other sites. Well done all of us!
1
This article is very well written and researched. I was born in 1951, so I grew up seeing a lot of changes in the South -- integration of the schools I attended, the assassination of Martin Luther King, a lot of ups and downs for black people. (My wife and I are white, but we have many black friends).
Here in Tennessee, I used to vote quite a bit for my neighbor Republicans. But the GOP has become increasingly the party of racists and right-wing extremists who label themselves as Christians.
But the times they are a-changin'. This year I've been amazed how many Bernie bumper stickers I saw right here in River City -- Chattanooga, the Buckle of the Bible Belt
I don't expect Hillary to win Tennessee this year, and perhaps not our neighbor Georgia. But I hope some people are thinking about what it actually means to vote for today's Republican bigots -- especially an arrogant bigot like Donald Trump.
Here in Tennessee, I used to vote quite a bit for my neighbor Republicans. But the GOP has become increasingly the party of racists and right-wing extremists who label themselves as Christians.
But the times they are a-changin'. This year I've been amazed how many Bernie bumper stickers I saw right here in River City -- Chattanooga, the Buckle of the Bible Belt
I don't expect Hillary to win Tennessee this year, and perhaps not our neighbor Georgia. But I hope some people are thinking about what it actually means to vote for today's Republican bigots -- especially an arrogant bigot like Donald Trump.
5
Even here in Alabama, I see very, very few Trump yard signs or bumper stickers. While that is completely anecdotal, it shows that even in the heart of dixie there is tepid support for Trump. Of course he will most of the South, but if Hilary can motivate large numbers of voters to the polls, while at the same time many republicans stay home, she certainly has a chance in places like Georgia, Arizona, etc (but I remain highly skeptical that South Carolina will turn blue).
1
Clinton can win Georgia if enough voters want to see the 2nd amendment repealed and the US borders dissolved.
1
She has no intention of repealing the second amendment. That is just a ploy by a desperate party to try to dupe voters into staying with them. The same is true of the US border issue, she has no plans to dissolve the border. Now it appears that Devious Donald is reconsidering what he would do with undocumented immigrants. People make up these stories to attract those who are too busy to check them out.
6
Yet another low information conspiracy theorist!
5
mrmeat: I guess you don't actually know what it takes to amend the constitution or to determine national boundaries? But hey, you got your name in print!
4
The Republican party has been smart enough to see Hillary Clinton as a threat for several decades. They were unable to get any qualified candidate to run against her and instead ran a man who is confused about national and international policy. The qualification gap is so severe that life long and professional party people are abandoning the Republican party to vote for Hillary.
The South has been absorbing jobs from other states. When they bring these new industries into their communities they are also getting new voters. A growing number of people who don't believe in discrimination, the subjugation of women and who do believe in education and equity are going to impact this and future elections.
If she gets close to winning in Georgia, it will bring new life to Democratic plans in that state and "change is gonna come."
The South has been absorbing jobs from other states. When they bring these new industries into their communities they are also getting new voters. A growing number of people who don't believe in discrimination, the subjugation of women and who do believe in education and equity are going to impact this and future elections.
If she gets close to winning in Georgia, it will bring new life to Democratic plans in that state and "change is gonna come."
8
Good points. I see the same in Texas. Suburban Republicans are beginning to wake up and realize that they do not recognize their party. They are not liberals, but may vote for democrats this cycle. This is not a slow inevitable purple-ing of Texas - but an opportunity for Democrats to seal a new deal. Not by moving further left - but by capturing the center. If they can find the middle, they will be able to permanently peel away a large section of disaffected white voters, who have nothing to gain from the billionaires only party.
6
I would agree with you if the candidate were anyone else but Hillary Clinton. But it's HIllary Clinton. And they will not vote for her because they disagree with her policies, give her an F on ethics, and honesty, and just personally dislike her.
"Goldwater, however, maintained that he was going after college-educated white collar professionals who were building the modern Southern economy."
Then why did he win only the states of the Old Confederacy?
Then why did he win only the states of the Old Confederacy?
1
What one shoots for & what one gets are often two entirely different things, no? :)
Clinton's success with moderate Republicans is almost the mirror image of Reagan's success with moderate Democrats.
I say "almost" because the motivations are completely different. Democrats (like me) voted for Reagan because he seemed so likable and trustworthy, Republicans who vote for Clinton will do so because they abhor Trump.
I say "almost" because the motivations are completely different. Democrats (like me) voted for Reagan because he seemed so likable and trustworthy, Republicans who vote for Clinton will do so because they abhor Trump.
3
One aspect of the shift in South Carolina, at least, may have to do with that state's strong respect for the military. Trump's contempt for and disparagement of John McCain's service, his bullying scorn toward the Khan family and their son's death, his cavalier attitude toward the use of nuclear weapons, and his oft-stated intent to order the military to commit a variety of egregious war crimes, cannot sit well with people who understand military service, honor and sacrifice.
10
I wonder how many of those moderate Republican voters in the Atlanta suburbs will express distaste for the vile and uncouth Trump (to those taking polls, that is) and then quietly vote for him on election day. Trump bumper stickers and yard signs are a surprisingly rare sight in the areas of the south I've seen lately but I persist in believing he has a strong underground fan club. It gives me no pleasure to say it, but I think we're in for an unpleasant surprise on November 8.
Read the electoral map!
It would take divine intervention for the orange buffoon to win!!!!!!
It would take divine intervention for the orange buffoon to win!!!!!!
1
Keep dreaming. Hillary loses Georgia by 6-7 points. The Atlanta cesspool does not reflect the rest of the state. Your wishful thinking is cute. Bless your liberal heart!
2
Atlanta is one of the nicest and most pleasant cities on the east coast, your thinly-veiled bigotry notwithstanding.
1
Do the Georgia newspapers speculate about New York (with the speculation only with what they want to happen), like the New York Times speculates about what will happen in Georgia? They don't? I'm shocked!
Your GOP nominee is so highly reviled that HRC will win in a national landslide and proceed to take Georgia as well as a significant portion of "The South".
Sorry, GUBER!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sorry, GUBER!!!!!!!!!!!!
1
I wouldn't call white support in Georgia an emerging landslide for Hillary.
The recent YouGov/Economist poll showed that Trump led among white
voters 66 to 19 percent. Republicans backed Trump virtually unanimously,
85 to 1 percent. At the same time, African Americans, who now comprise close to one third of the state's electorate, are backing Hillary consistent with national numbers, also nearly unanimously at 87 to 2 percent. So the reason why Hillary has a shot in Georgia is that huge black vote combined with a small slice of the secular white vote. I assume those would be northern transplants, secular millennials and secular professional white women.
The dirty truth about Trump's support nationally is that he is running with basically the same support Ronald Reagan had in 1980. Reagan took 56 percent of the white vote, according to a large Roper poll, which comprised 88 percent of the national electorate. That would be 49 percent of the vote in 1980 and Reagan won by a landslide with 51 percent. It was a great big white coalition. Today, Trump has that coalition because of demographic changes, he is polling in the low 40s. Non Hispanic whites are now in the range of 68 to 70 percent as opposed to 88 in 1980. So Trump has to fight for Georgia and fight to win the country. Those pesky nonwhites are standing in his way.
The recent YouGov/Economist poll showed that Trump led among white
voters 66 to 19 percent. Republicans backed Trump virtually unanimously,
85 to 1 percent. At the same time, African Americans, who now comprise close to one third of the state's electorate, are backing Hillary consistent with national numbers, also nearly unanimously at 87 to 2 percent. So the reason why Hillary has a shot in Georgia is that huge black vote combined with a small slice of the secular white vote. I assume those would be northern transplants, secular millennials and secular professional white women.
The dirty truth about Trump's support nationally is that he is running with basically the same support Ronald Reagan had in 1980. Reagan took 56 percent of the white vote, according to a large Roper poll, which comprised 88 percent of the national electorate. That would be 49 percent of the vote in 1980 and Reagan won by a landslide with 51 percent. It was a great big white coalition. Today, Trump has that coalition because of demographic changes, he is polling in the low 40s. Non Hispanic whites are now in the range of 68 to 70 percent as opposed to 88 in 1980. So Trump has to fight for Georgia and fight to win the country. Those pesky nonwhites are standing in his way.
8
I'm a lifelong Georgian and live in Atlanta. I feel like Trump's strongest supporters here are those Republicans who are avowed racists (even if they typically express this in coded language and winks) and, to my relative surprise, newly open to nationalistic economic concepts -- fascism, really. I guess I can't be too surprised about that. But I have heard a few longtime Republicans expressing their disdain for the GOP's nominee.
7
Democrats should hand out clothes pins in front of voting stations. That might make it a little easier and more bearable to pull the lever for Mrs.Clinton.
5
The voters will need a gas mask to vote for Trump.
3
Hazmat suit. :)
2
I was born, raised, and lived in Georgia my entire life. I've lived all over the state and have always been dismayed at what remains mostly covert racism in so much of Georgia. Sometimes the racism becomes very overt, but it seems that most have the good sense and manners to be appalled and embarrassed by such foolishness. (Although as a high school senior, I was probably the only person in my Atlanta high school who did not support Lester Maddox for governor.) I see things somewhat differently as a white male in his mid-sixties. I am seeing a moderating effect from younger portions of the population. I consider myself a moderate...a moderate whose views have been influenced by his faith and faith community. Many profess to "love neighbor as self" but many don't even attempt that because it is too difficult. At some point, perhaps not in my lifetime, the nastiness and meanness of racism, classism, sexism, heterosexism, ableism, and all the ways we find to demean each other will fade away. The silo's and bubbles in which many were raised cannot last forever simply by virtue of our continued interaction...whether we like it or not....with those who are different from us. Maybe some day, Pollyanna as it sounds, we will no longer elect politicians based on race and gender but by qualifications. Young people seem to have different outlooks. Older, meaner and more nasty folks as well as the rest of us, have death with which to deal!
67
It appears Ms Clinton has more in common with most Americans than Mr Trump, but as a woman that is easily overlooked by many, both men and women, in our slowly changing male dominant culture.
Women should and for the most part I trust do recognize where this philosophical separation has and if continued will take our nation.
Throughout the world men are in what I trust is the last gasp of a leadership role which has been bankrupting the majority of our world's people while transferring the wealth generated to what is now recognized as a very small percentage of the population.
Militarism is the means used by those who own as well as the minority who are supported by this physical force to obtain and accumulate their wealth. It is a man's game that has brought moral bankruptcy, but financial reward to those who practice it.
If there is validity to this observation it should come as no surprise much of Mr Trump's backing is found south of the Mason-Dixon line where the majority of military personnel and their bases are located.
If Mrs Clinton is turning the corner in Georgia it may indicate a positive change in our outlook regarding the use of military force to address world problems and allow us to withdraw from our role as the world's guardian.
Regardless the military might, no one nation can rule the world and if we men come to our senses we will recognize this fact and cooperate with our presumed adversaries to peacefully deal with the problems we all face.
Women should and for the most part I trust do recognize where this philosophical separation has and if continued will take our nation.
Throughout the world men are in what I trust is the last gasp of a leadership role which has been bankrupting the majority of our world's people while transferring the wealth generated to what is now recognized as a very small percentage of the population.
Militarism is the means used by those who own as well as the minority who are supported by this physical force to obtain and accumulate their wealth. It is a man's game that has brought moral bankruptcy, but financial reward to those who practice it.
If there is validity to this observation it should come as no surprise much of Mr Trump's backing is found south of the Mason-Dixon line where the majority of military personnel and their bases are located.
If Mrs Clinton is turning the corner in Georgia it may indicate a positive change in our outlook regarding the use of military force to address world problems and allow us to withdraw from our role as the world's guardian.
Regardless the military might, no one nation can rule the world and if we men come to our senses we will recognize this fact and cooperate with our presumed adversaries to peacefully deal with the problems we all face.
10
Ah Georgia, the state that voted out Democrat Vietnam war hero, and double amputee, Senator Max Cleland in favor of sleazy Republican Saxby Chambliss, who questioned Cleland's patriotism- a permanent stain on Georgia's body politic.
Shame on "y'all".
Shame on "y'all".
89
That was then, & due to Karl Rove. Affects the now how? :)
1
First, the modifier “moderate” when applied to “conservative” isn’t compelling on its face. Better to refer to the “moderate Republicans” of Georgia – all five of them outside of Atlanta.
However, I’d suggest that what will get Mrs. Clinton our southern states isn’t a sense of moderation but rather second thoughts about the desirability of a true game-changer – Trump – in the teeth of his excess. Americans generally may conclude that their fear over their futures isn’t yet QUITE so acute that they’re willing to abandon an elite, establishment pol such as Mrs. Clinton to take a chance on her antithesis.
It could happen. But what has lowered Trump’s dominance in the south isn’t any imagined “hard-right” campaign but his mouth. His campaign is anything but “hard right” – unless preservation of Social Security and Medicare in their current forms suddenly has become an aim of conservatives.
However, I’d caution about drawing the author’s conclusions before well-after Labor Day. The state of working and middle class Americans is pretty grim, and Trump’s basic messages resonate with them. If he can keep his mouth shut and manage not to offend huge swaths of America for a month, it’s more likely than not that he’ll recapture a lot of support, particularly in our south.
Then, we still await the next shoe to drop in EMailGate: heaven knows what’s in those 33,000 “lost” emails that Putin is waiting to release until it’s too late for her to recover.
However, I’d suggest that what will get Mrs. Clinton our southern states isn’t a sense of moderation but rather second thoughts about the desirability of a true game-changer – Trump – in the teeth of his excess. Americans generally may conclude that their fear over their futures isn’t yet QUITE so acute that they’re willing to abandon an elite, establishment pol such as Mrs. Clinton to take a chance on her antithesis.
It could happen. But what has lowered Trump’s dominance in the south isn’t any imagined “hard-right” campaign but his mouth. His campaign is anything but “hard right” – unless preservation of Social Security and Medicare in their current forms suddenly has become an aim of conservatives.
However, I’d caution about drawing the author’s conclusions before well-after Labor Day. The state of working and middle class Americans is pretty grim, and Trump’s basic messages resonate with them. If he can keep his mouth shut and manage not to offend huge swaths of America for a month, it’s more likely than not that he’ll recapture a lot of support, particularly in our south.
Then, we still await the next shoe to drop in EMailGate: heaven knows what’s in those 33,000 “lost” emails that Putin is waiting to release until it’s too late for her to recover.
4
Such faith you have that a 70 y.o. spoiled brat will change.
He can't keep his mouth shut- the roar of approval from his crowds when he spouts off about Mexicans, Muslims, anyone not white. And now this Bannon character, a racist by any definition, has come aboard to help Donald get nastier, if that's possible.
But you already know all this. The next shoe to drop is just as likely to land on Trump's head.
He can't keep his mouth shut- the roar of approval from his crowds when he spouts off about Mexicans, Muslims, anyone not white. And now this Bannon character, a racist by any definition, has come aboard to help Donald get nastier, if that's possible.
But you already know all this. The next shoe to drop is just as likely to land on Trump's head.
3
RL: Are you not concerned that a Russian oligarch/dictator would have the ability to affect the U.S. election, in favour of Trump, who if he displeases Putin, could find himself in the same circumstances and any others who have displeased Putin, ie, dead by unknown poison? But then when you want to have your ideology to prevail, even if it destroys the U.S. in the eyes of the world, you probably don't care.
1
It's obvious by your comments you haven't been to Georgia lately.
2
Well, when Hillary's 33,000 "personal" emails about yoga and such start being released, all bets are off.
The obsession with partisan polling to prove how Hillary is going to win are completely meaningless.
The obsession with partisan polling to prove how Hillary is going to win are completely meaningless.
10
Ah the emails! Those billions of emails that the republican party can't seem to get enough of but has been unable to "nail" Hillary on anything. Hillary is totally a victim of republican incompetence and, I'm sick of following the republicans down every rabbit hole they think is a "scandal" while the real scandal is the republican party's incompetence and misuse of the congressional investigative process. I hope Hillary wins Alabama too!
12
Ken where was your concern when Republicans dumped their emails. Aren't you trying to make something out of nothing because your own candidate has nothing to give this country?
8
Ken's fantasy about the e-mails reveals he's either a partisan Trump hack, or a Bernie nut.
4
nice to have perspective, historical pastoral, (above the fray, if you will) but its the comical tragical (that happens on the ground, where we the people are mired in the muck from two of the most unappetizing choices in memory, including nixon) that will shape our destiny...
to offer only one example of the class of candidate we're mixed up with, there's the bully, lashing out at a woman whose frame of mind, including her sense of place in the public eye, was unknown to him, because he is stung by what her husband (totally comfortable, if not luxuriating in the spotlight) says about him ...his lack of judgement here was truly frightening (showing neither good sense nor grace under pressure) he failed to recognize both the trick and the trickster behind it...the other candidate, a known sly boots (manipulating what she will as she will but never responsible for anything) who used the couple and the death of their son, an army officer killed in a war that will live in infamy (with her name on the list of its begetters)...
shamelessly putting them and their grief on display (and, give her credit, escaping any charges of cynicism as trump jumped in front of her to take the self-inflicted and mediagenic hits by his totally clueless reaction).
lots more available on request.
to offer only one example of the class of candidate we're mixed up with, there's the bully, lashing out at a woman whose frame of mind, including her sense of place in the public eye, was unknown to him, because he is stung by what her husband (totally comfortable, if not luxuriating in the spotlight) says about him ...his lack of judgement here was truly frightening (showing neither good sense nor grace under pressure) he failed to recognize both the trick and the trickster behind it...the other candidate, a known sly boots (manipulating what she will as she will but never responsible for anything) who used the couple and the death of their son, an army officer killed in a war that will live in infamy (with her name on the list of its begetters)...
shamelessly putting them and their grief on display (and, give her credit, escaping any charges of cynicism as trump jumped in front of her to take the self-inflicted and mediagenic hits by his totally clueless reaction).
lots more available on request.
3
So why would white moderates vote for Hillary? Are you suggesting they might be in favor of letting an increased number of Syrian migrants come to the US? Hillary wants to increase the number of Syrian refugees 500% to 65,000/year. Or maybe it's because she is so close to the Wall Street bankers and they want to find out how to make $5000 per minute giving a speech? Maybe it's her pro-war policy? According to Ralph Nader, “Where Trump’s White House is seen as utterly unpredictable, Hillary’s White House is utterly predictable: more Wall Street, more military adventures. As Senator and Secretary of State she has never seen a weapons system or a war that she didn’t support.”
Are these the reasons the left is supporting Hillary too? You have decided war, increased immigration and Wall Street are a good thing for the US?
Are these the reasons the left is supporting Hillary too? You have decided war, increased immigration and Wall Street are a good thing for the US?
6
With regard to the refugees. Our country was built by refugees. So while some of our families may have fled religious or economic or political persecution fifty, one hundred or more years ago, we understand and welcome those who want to get themselves and their families into a safe place with a hope for a great future. We all benefited from the welcome mat in front of an open door, let us not shut the door on those who follow.
8
Ralph Nader gave us 8 years of Bush II. That for sure gave the US more military adventures.
2
Actually, I've decided that Thomas Pickety is right. We are still a nation of rule by law, not personality. Therefore I support the Democratic Party, increased taxation for the wealthy and increased government protection (AKA regulation) and service for the rest of us.
3
As a liberal, I would like to believe in the trends described in this article, but, in the words of my son, who lives in Atlanta, the south is the south. Yes, it is changing, but not sure this will be the tipping point election.
24
When I was growing up in Georgia in the 1960s, the Democrats was regarded as a party of rural race-baiters and the Republicans a party of well-educated businessmen who wanted to bring the state into the twentieth-century. I was bewildered by the way national media kept talking about the Democrats being the more liberal party.
According to the article, Democrats lost voters "because of its support for civil rights". But another cause was the way the Democrats removed the abortion issue from the democratic process so people could not vote against it. which made their concern for voting rights look hypocritical.
According to the article, Democrats lost voters "because of its support for civil rights". But another cause was the way the Democrats removed the abortion issue from the democratic process so people could not vote against it. which made their concern for voting rights look hypocritical.
2
"So people could not vote against it?"
What part of our politics do you not understand?
You then must be in favor of states that prevented blacks from voting or being discriminated against. Love that Jim Crow?
You can't have one w/o the other, because the law has been decided at the Supreme Court level.
Get over it.
What part of our politics do you not understand?
You then must be in favor of states that prevented blacks from voting or being discriminated against. Love that Jim Crow?
You can't have one w/o the other, because the law has been decided at the Supreme Court level.
Get over it.
4
Actually, there are a couple of Georgias. There is Atlanta and then there is the rest of the state. There is the more or less liberal Atlanta and the conservative Rest of It. Atlanta will eventually win out. It always does.
47
Right on point. I am a former San Franciscan transplanted in Atlanta eight years ago. Atlanta and the surrounding communities are working hard to create a vibrant economy and cosmopolitan center attractive to highly-skilled workers. The rest of the state despises Atlanta for the most part and looks west to Alabama and Mississippi as appropriate role models for Georgia's future. The Atlanta metropolitan area is responsible for more than 60% of the state's export income. Without Atlanta, the state truly is East Alabama. I will be retired and back on the West Coast before state politics are a two horse race in Georgia.
8
Well, the rest of Georgia does include Savannah, Augusta, Columbus, Macon, Albany, and Athens which generally vote for the Democrat in presidential elections, not to mention a string of counties across the center of the state in what is sometimes called "the black belt" that also tend to vote for the Democrat. Also, in metropolitan Atlanta, the counties to the east, south, and west of the city have increasingly been voting Democratic in the past few elections. The bulk of the state south of the fall line and inland from the coast is still sparsely populated and, in fact, becoming more so.
3
The same can be said for California, Oregon and Washington.
1
As a tie-in to another article in today's edition re: Hannity/Fox, I recently saw a produced segment on Fox voter fraud which, under the pretense of explaining how rogue Dems get away with it, basically served as a tutorial for GOP voters so they could engage in a bit of voter fraud themselves, relying on an implied justification of, "But they do it, too!" ('tuo quoque' fallacy).
Ever-careful to remain within boundaries of journalism by being able to cite they're only reporting, Fox will seemingly stop short of nothing to prevent States like Georgia from flipping blue.
Ever-careful to remain within boundaries of journalism by being able to cite they're only reporting, Fox will seemingly stop short of nothing to prevent States like Georgia from flipping blue.
32
Georgia voting patterns have shown a floor for Democratic support around the low 40 percent range and a ceiling around the mid to upper 40s. The biggest cause for these swings is highly variable turnout among Democrats. In 2014, turnout was horribly low, and Democrats were blown out.
In 2016, Trump will drive Democrats to the polls to vote against him. Voter registration efforts, fueled by Trump's hate speech, have changed voter demographics too, with thousands of new non-white voters registered. Many Republicans are dismayed and disappointed by Trump but haven't decided yet whether they will vote for Mrs. Clinton.
We might be close to the tipping point.
In 2016, Trump will drive Democrats to the polls to vote against him. Voter registration efforts, fueled by Trump's hate speech, have changed voter demographics too, with thousands of new non-white voters registered. Many Republicans are dismayed and disappointed by Trump but haven't decided yet whether they will vote for Mrs. Clinton.
We might be close to the tipping point.
28
Its way too early to write an article or letter in the Times forecasting Hillary will carry Georgia. Overlooked in the article is the effort being and to be made by Trump and supporters to get Black votes.
Last week supporters of Trump, including former NY mayor and police chief, argued to blacks (1) they have been voting and living in Democratic controlled cities for many years, but that (2) their conditions have not materially improved, and that (3) they should consider giving Trump, a not regular type Republican, a chance to see what he might be able to do for them.
A swing of 10% of the black vote could put Hillary where she belongs: in a long deserved and uninterrupted retirement.
Last week supporters of Trump, including former NY mayor and police chief, argued to blacks (1) they have been voting and living in Democratic controlled cities for many years, but that (2) their conditions have not materially improved, and that (3) they should consider giving Trump, a not regular type Republican, a chance to see what he might be able to do for them.
A swing of 10% of the black vote could put Hillary where she belongs: in a long deserved and uninterrupted retirement.
4
RE: "Last week supporters of Trump, including former NY mayor and police chief, argued to blacks"
"to blacks"? You mean by why of speaking to a white audience. In another state?
"to blacks"? You mean in a all encompassing and condescending manner as Trump did?
And I am never sure if re-writing "might win" in to forested to win is an intentional misstating what was said or an misunderstanding on the readers part being quick to take offense.
"to blacks"? You mean by why of speaking to a white audience. In another state?
"to blacks"? You mean in a all encompassing and condescending manner as Trump did?
And I am never sure if re-writing "might win" in to forested to win is an intentional misstating what was said or an misunderstanding on the readers part being quick to take offense.
5
Trump will never get the black vote. He's already poisoned that well, and hasn't scheduled a single event with black voters, nor has he attended a single event hosted by the major African American organizations such as the NAACP. In fact, he snubbed them. Combine that with his dog-whistling about voter "fraud" (racially tinged, of course, by referring to "certain areas") and his shabby record as a slumlord in his treatment of African Americans ... you're delusional if you think he's going to pick up 10% of the black vote ... when Obama captured nearly 100% of the black vote in both elections? Dream on ...
6
DREAM ON, you pathetic Trump supporter!
Do you realize that you and your kind are the laughing stock of the entire country?
Do you realize that you and your kind are the laughing stock of the entire country?
3
It's been a long time in the making that the Republican party is on life support, especially when it comes to the electoral college. It seems like Democrats will rule the White House in the foreseeable future.
Contrast this with local and state elections which in the majority of the states have become Republican, many times right-wing Republican (school boards, city councils, state legislators etc.), a devious strategy devised by the Koch brothers and ignored by the Democrats.
This is bound to lead to more gridlock if not outright chaos.
Unless you do a reset by taking the money out of elections and completely overhaul the election process, these problems are not going to go away.
Contrast this with local and state elections which in the majority of the states have become Republican, many times right-wing Republican (school boards, city councils, state legislators etc.), a devious strategy devised by the Koch brothers and ignored by the Democrats.
This is bound to lead to more gridlock if not outright chaos.
Unless you do a reset by taking the money out of elections and completely overhaul the election process, these problems are not going to go away.
46
The Republicans keep winning locally because they have gerrymandered the districts so that they CAN NOT LOSE. That's it -- pure and simple.
1
My favorite poly-sci fantasy scenario is: White House--->Senate---->Supreme Court---->a whole lot more judicial appointments-->challenge and make highly illegal all gerrymandering-->House--->fair progressive tax----->campaign finance reform---->a new New Deal for Americans: living wages, health care, education, infrastructure etc etc....so much work waiting to be done. All we have to do is get that 1% to return some of their golden hoards.
1
One minor correction: George Wallace left the Democratic Party in 1968 to run a 3rd party campaign that year and and 1972. It was only later, after he recovered enough from his wounds that he rejoined the Democrats.
Actually, the model of competing parties has held true in two key Southern states, Virginia and North Carolina. In both, educated urban areas frequently have sufficient strength to elect Democrats and overcome the more rural and reactionary areas. Perhaps Georgia is finally on the brink of that as well.
Actually, the model of competing parties has held true in two key Southern states, Virginia and North Carolina. In both, educated urban areas frequently have sufficient strength to elect Democrats and overcome the more rural and reactionary areas. Perhaps Georgia is finally on the brink of that as well.
13
The fact is that the main geological and geographical features of the US run north-sought (mountain ranges, largest rivers), thus one might expect the main social, economic and political cleavages in the US to run east-west. Indeed, Lincoln made this point in rejecting southern secession as unnatural (as well as inconsistent with what he took to be core American principles).
Because the US began and grew as a largely agrarian society, north-south climate gradients counted for more in the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries. But the US has not been "agrarian" for over 100 years. The "future" should be one where east coast can be taken to mean Maine through Florida, just as west coast is taken to mean Washington, Oregon and California.
Because the US began and grew as a largely agrarian society, north-south climate gradients counted for more in the 17th, 18th and 19th centuries. But the US has not been "agrarian" for over 100 years. The "future" should be one where east coast can be taken to mean Maine through Florida, just as west coast is taken to mean Washington, Oregon and California.
4
State Senator Perdue of Georgia is a tea party Republican who spews out hatred of the President and even invoking Psalm 109 which is alluding to a prayer for the death of the President. He made a fortune in outsourcing which he freely admits. Yet he fully endorses Trump.
Georgia GOP is so enthralled with hatred of the President and obstructionism at the federal level that they would rather close rural hospitals than accept expanded Medicaid. Atlanta is not allowed to expand as a fortress of GOP controlled suburbs around Atlanta strangle local transportation initiatives. Home rule in Black areas i sremoved by gerrymandering. Black controlled cities in Georgia are like shipwrecks adrift at sea.
The governor of Georgia sells his business for millions and a monthly rent check of $10,000 while that business owes over 70 million in state sales taxes.The main education initiative is not greater state funding but rather state takeover of urban school systems to allegedly make them succeed and growth of private charter schools.
Yes Georgia voters may finally have some reason to question whether total control by the GOP of all state level political levers in Georgia is truly working.
Georgia GOP is so enthralled with hatred of the President and obstructionism at the federal level that they would rather close rural hospitals than accept expanded Medicaid. Atlanta is not allowed to expand as a fortress of GOP controlled suburbs around Atlanta strangle local transportation initiatives. Home rule in Black areas i sremoved by gerrymandering. Black controlled cities in Georgia are like shipwrecks adrift at sea.
The governor of Georgia sells his business for millions and a monthly rent check of $10,000 while that business owes over 70 million in state sales taxes.The main education initiative is not greater state funding but rather state takeover of urban school systems to allegedly make them succeed and growth of private charter schools.
Yes Georgia voters may finally have some reason to question whether total control by the GOP of all state level political levers in Georgia is truly working.
35
There is more going on in America than Trump and other Republicans fanning white resentment among an older generation that is fading from the scene in what is likely their last grab at power using these op worn Nixon-Wallace tactics. For one thing, as this article notes, in-migration into southern cities is changing the south by balancing urban priorities and multi racial coalitions against traditional rural prejudices and racial divisions. For another, Millennials everywhere do not buy into the racial divisions and resentments that Trump and his ilk are hard-selling. Although Clinton may carry the Millennials this year, their support for her is tepid and diluted by their inclination to look at the Libertarian and Green options as another way to reject Trump. The real test for these emerging trends will come in 2020 when we are likely to see Millennial candidates emerge on the national scene in both parties who speak with authenticity as to the priorities and needs of this vast and under represented generation. Oddly that voice this year came from a 74 year old self proclaimed socialist. The party that best adapts itself and responds to these urban and generational developments may gain and keep power at the national level for many, many years to come.
7
The politics of the South will change when white people come to accept that improving the lot of the lower economic classes, read Blacks in the South, is a plus also for them. The furthering of a Black middle class is good for social stability and economic growth which, naturally, promotes the well being of all elements of society. Unfortunately, the tepid economic recovery after the great recession has created an atmosphere of resentment that precludes its acceptance. When things, as one hopes, improve we should see in the South more balanced political forces that will bring about reconciliation.
21
Frank: responses to the economy are afterthoughts for many who rationalize positions based on religious convictions and on historical racism as results of the economy. White racism was strong when the economy was strong.
2
People have this magical thinking about Trump. They said, "if only he changed his way, he could win."
But the logic tells us: if he can change so easily and suddenly, what is stopping him to change again? Back to his original or something else?
Mrs Clinton may be a lawyer in appearance but she is pragmatist at heart. And she has a proven record to convince the pragmatic Republicans they can adjust under a Hilary Administration
But the logic tells us: if he can change so easily and suddenly, what is stopping him to change again? Back to his original or something else?
Mrs Clinton may be a lawyer in appearance but she is pragmatist at heart. And she has a proven record to convince the pragmatic Republicans they can adjust under a Hilary Administration
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As a 66 year resident of Georgia I'm always amused at pundits such as Mr. Crespino who overlook one of the largest demographic changes in the state. The in migration of mostly conservative voters from the Northeast and Midwest has had a huge impact on politics in our state and is only beginning to be challenged by young and minority voters. For example Jimmie Carter is home grown while Newt Gingrich is a snow bird.
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@greg
savannah, ga
Most of the immigrants from the NE and Mid west are mainly Democrats/independants who have settled in major urban concentrations like Atlanta. It's much the same process that has turned VA into a blueish state. No need to worry. GA is a long way from going blue although there is a slight chance Hillary may carry the state (a few of my Republican friends down there are seriously considering her!).
savannah, ga
Most of the immigrants from the NE and Mid west are mainly Democrats/independants who have settled in major urban concentrations like Atlanta. It's much the same process that has turned VA into a blueish state. No need to worry. GA is a long way from going blue although there is a slight chance Hillary may carry the state (a few of my Republican friends down there are seriously considering her!).
21
Republicans who hate Trump will either not vote for president, or vote for Gary Johnson. Hillary Clinton is diametrically opposed to every thing Republicans believe. Plus she has never heard of the word ethics.
Newt is an Army brat, not a snow bird. There's a difference. He graduated high school in Columbus, Georgia, in 1961. And most of the people who have moved into Atlanta and surrounds from the Northeast (who moves from the Midwest to the South, and why?) are not conservative, and even if they were, a NE conservative is not the same as a south Georgia conservative.
4
Georgia becoming liberal? What does that even mean?
The whole assumption that conservative = racist needs to come to an end. This is a great political lie.
How about a more basic explanation for what is happening in the birthplace of Jimmy Carter.
Somehow this essay's discussion of Georgia politics does not use the term "evangelical Christian," even once. Huh? A discussion of Georgia politics and NOTHING about evangelical Christians?
How about this simple explanation for what is happening. Evangelical Christians in Georgia are proving themselves NOT to be the hypocrites that they have been depicted as. Just maybe their Christian faith is a faith of basic decency and values that are not racist. And just maybe Donald Trump has proven himself to be the most indecent candidate for president in American history.
The whole assumption that conservative = racist needs to come to an end. This is a great political lie.
How about a more basic explanation for what is happening in the birthplace of Jimmy Carter.
Somehow this essay's discussion of Georgia politics does not use the term "evangelical Christian," even once. Huh? A discussion of Georgia politics and NOTHING about evangelical Christians?
How about this simple explanation for what is happening. Evangelical Christians in Georgia are proving themselves NOT to be the hypocrites that they have been depicted as. Just maybe their Christian faith is a faith of basic decency and values that are not racist. And just maybe Donald Trump has proven himself to be the most indecent candidate for president in American history.
72
Polls show "white evangelicals" to be among Trump's strongest supporters. White evangelicals are overwhelmingly a "Southern" phenomenon, undoubtedly including Georgia.
12
"Just maybe their Christian faith is a faith of basic decency and values that are not racist."
Maybe. Or maybe they just don't like racism as overt as Trump's.
Maybe. Or maybe they just don't like racism as overt as Trump's.
15
You have hit the bull's eye!!!! Even the most callous can recognize the indecency in this man.
1
Born and raised in Savannah. We were all republican when the rest of the state went with the racist democrats. Then Strom Thurmond and the bigots went over to the republicans, and we all started voting democratic. In Atlanta where I lived for decades, every time a republican won he turned out to be a candidate for federal prison. So we voted democratic in Atlanta. I sure hope that GA goes for Hillary but the good old boy network for former democrats now turned republicans are more prejudiced against women than against blacks. Sam Nunn's daughter could not get elected.
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Take off the rose colored glasses. Trump averaged ahead of Hillary in 5 polls taken yesterday.
6
Citation please.
4
Bearly.
Which means neither less nor more than any other polls, naturally. We're still well over two months out from the only poll that matters. Polls last month, last week, or even last night, mean precisely less than nothing at all.
"increasingly multiethnic metropolitan South against an increasingly rural, nationalistic Republican Party." The question is whether or not this demographic would have the numbers to sustain a party. The "autopsy report" after Romney's 2012 campaign concluded that it did not.
7
I just cope everyone realizes, in 2020 there will be someone who runs as a "compassionate Trumpist," and they will win. The only flaw in Trump is that he is an ogre. There are already a dozen people practicing in mirrors how to sound the Trumpian dog whistles without appearing like a rank no-nothing bigot.
If people thing the Republican Party is going to wholly disavow a man who has clearly tapped into the sizable energies and passions of a reactionary base, I would love to know what history books you have been reading. Trump's appeal is as old as George Wallace.
If people thing the Republican Party is going to wholly disavow a man who has clearly tapped into the sizable energies and passions of a reactionary base, I would love to know what history books you have been reading. Trump's appeal is as old as George Wallace.
14
Trump is not just an ogre, he lacks substance. While Trump has harnessed the anger caused by real and pressing problems, he and his supports have not clearly defined those problems, and have utterly failed to offer any solutions. Trumpism is hollow movement lead by an empty suit.
17
Republican's problem is the "old appeal" of Trump is increasingly matched by the old age of those it appeals to.
5
To somewhat quote Billings, "Never prophesy, for if you prophesy right no one will remember it & if you prophesy wrong no one will forget."
Your last paragraph is an apt description of what is happening here in North Carolina, where the large population centers - educated, multi ethnic, middle class, progressive and growing - are in a struggle with conservative rural voters for political power. The extreme gerrymandering of the state brought on by the Tea Party's sweep into state power in the 2010 election has resulted in a state government that has enacted laws that have made NC a laughing stock of the nation - this election will hopefully put us back on track to return to the more progressive, inclusive government that was once a beacon in the South.
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I moved from NC in 1980 in an attempt to get away from the racism that was/is so prevalent there. I have often struggled with going back, but recent politics there has kept me away. I had hoped it would change, but I may not be around that long.
6
It looks like you are on your way, just like Virginia
They'll vote for Clinton because she is a Republican.
9
Wow! This is great! Republicans now accept climate change! Republicans want to raise the minimum wage! Republicans are interested in deficit spending to do infrastructure investment! The long night of political gridlock is over!!
4
I do wish people would stop saying that -- it's emotion-based & inaccurate. Clinton is as Obama was & is, a centrist with a few corporate leanings, which is not automagically a bad thing, as his record of accomplishment vis-a-vis the obstructionist Congress should amply prove.
6
Me. Crespino: from your lips to Gods ear: if Clinton Kaine can dissolve the power of party that encourages voting against ones own economic interests in favor of narrow cultural preferences, there may be hope for us yet.
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"She's winning white moderate conservatives - just as Nixon did in the 1960s."
Did the NYT just compare Hillary to Nixon?
Did the NYT just compare Hillary to Nixon?
6
Just think. The Republican Party fields an alligator-mouthed presidential candidate in dire need of a clue and now Georgia and South Carolina are becoming competitive states. Well, think again. The Republican voters who are the backbone of the Trump campaign have not moved to New York or Illinois. They will vote on November 8 and even the hapless and hopeless Donald Trump will uphold the reputation of Georgia and South Carolina.
3
"Reputation" or notoriety?
6
More like "infamy."
1
I'm so happy to hear GOP voters might become the minority in Georgia. Bless their hearts.
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Georgia the last few elections is a red state but the majority of it''s metropolitan areas have been blue. Savannah where I live is an example. We are ever hopeful!
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When you control the polls you can give the illusion that any candidate which you favor is pulling ahead. A complete mockery and an insult to all Americans. Complete lies!
2
JT
When your guy was ahead in the "polls" he repeatedly bragged about it.
Now that's changed; he's behind. Way behind.
To his supporters, this just *can't be* true.
Can't have it both ways, JT.
When your guy was ahead in the "polls" he repeatedly bragged about it.
Now that's changed; he's behind. Way behind.
To his supporters, this just *can't be* true.
Can't have it both ways, JT.
74
Are you saying that the Democrats control all the polls? How does that happen?
9
I would hardly call this election a "trend". We have one of the most corrupt politicians running against a bully. The people really don't have any choice. One is as bad as the other.
Of course, this policy of nominating very unpopular candidates could become a trend I guess. Personally I hope not.
And to show my extreme displeasure I will vote my conscience and that will NOT be for either of those two awful candidates. My vote will go for Jill.
I actually won't have any say in the matter as only the electoral college selects the president (or the Supreme Court).
Of course, this policy of nominating very unpopular candidates could become a trend I guess. Personally I hope not.
And to show my extreme displeasure I will vote my conscience and that will NOT be for either of those two awful candidates. My vote will go for Jill.
I actually won't have any say in the matter as only the electoral college selects the president (or the Supreme Court).
4
I do not know how you can be paying a drop of attention to this election cycle and say one is as bad as the other... Trump is a vicious, lying, greedy racist appealing to all that is terrible in the American psyche. The false equivalency has got to stop.
43
Jill and Tammy. Yeah, that's the ticket.
Actually you of course do, same as you do in Congress. You're selecting someone to represent you, as we (presumably) all of course know. :) For you it probably won't matter since you live in a blue state. For those of us in purple &/or currently marginally red states, it makes a difference.
Protest votes in solid red/blue states are not only ineffectual, they don't even send the "message" the sender thinks they do, since there is no impact at the target at all. There's the satisfy-inner-needs factor, of course, but nothing apart from that, which renders them non-existent.
Protest votes in solid red/blue states are not only ineffectual, they don't even send the "message" the sender thinks they do, since there is no impact at the target at all. There's the satisfy-inner-needs factor, of course, but nothing apart from that, which renders them non-existent.
5
In 1956, Georgia voted two-to-one for Adlai Stevenson for president. The rest of the nation voted nearly two-to-one forDwight Eisenhower.
Sixty years later, if Georgeia winds up in the Democratic column, it will be only because of the 1965 Voting Rights Act which guaranteed the right to vote to all Georgians.
The white voters, we can safely predict, will be voting as overwhelmingly for Donald Trump this year as they voted for Adlai Stevenson in 1956.
Sixty years later, if Georgeia winds up in the Democratic column, it will be only because of the 1965 Voting Rights Act which guaranteed the right to vote to all Georgians.
The white voters, we can safely predict, will be voting as overwhelmingly for Donald Trump this year as they voted for Adlai Stevenson in 1956.
9
Why do you think white Georgians voted for Stevenson in 1956? Were they misled by the label Democrat?
1
Yeah, the "Party of Lincoln" was too hard to swallow for many a Southern Democrat, even after Strom and the Dixiecrats, but by 1956, the swing of the Southern White Male to Republicans (at least at the Presidential level) was already in evidence. Truman's integrating the armed forces got the ball really rolling, then came Brown v Board, and the 1964 CRA was the last straw, at least at the Presidential.
3
Georgia??? Clinton better start to worry about Ohio and Florida. These are terribly flawed candidates and neither will have the ability to pull away because of those flaws. This election cycle will flip flop for the next two months and when the music stops the loser will be the candidate who screws up last!
8
In fact, despite all of tRumps drama, and the media's successful character assassination of Ms. Clinton, this race has been remarkably steady. Last spring Ms. Clinton had a 5 point lead. Today that lead is closer to 6 points. People have pretty much made up their minds: it's the Democrat over the demago.
34
Yeah, no. At this point Clinton could kill someone in Times Square and still be the better alternative to a guy who'd sell us to Russia for 30 pieces of silver.
21
The media character assassination of Ms. Clinton? Are you kidding me? They have propped her up, with The Times being the leading propper-upper.
1
The development of a tight 2016 race in Georgia is less about demographic change, especially in rural Georgia, than it is about how repulsive the Republican nominee is even to many Georgians. A more suitable Republican candidate would route most any Democratic nominee in Georgia. That said, I am still appalled at how many people from my beloved home state have jumped on the Trump bandwagon. Praying for smarter days ahead...
94
If we are seeing an increasingly multi-ethnic metropolitan South emerge, then a liberal push by Democrats should not be an issue for them. The only problem will be if the GOP pushes gerrymandering to the extremes.
34
There is hope still for the Peach State
22
A lotta Republicans are voting for Clinton here in Birmingham. We're the last state that will cross over to the Dems, but I've been surprised how many could be shaken loose from the Republicans. I'll bet Clinton does five to ten points better than Obama's thirty-eight per cent here.
Trump, and especially his people, are tacky. There are a lot of people here who work for corporations, or who strongly identify as professional. In a one party state, like Alabama, the corporate class Republicans are the progressives on many issues and for decades they have had bitter fights on issue after issue with the rural, racist wing of the party. They loved W and Romney, but Trump is trashy. He rails against the elites, but they identify with the elites.
Trump, and especially his people, are tacky. There are a lot of people here who work for corporations, or who strongly identify as professional. In a one party state, like Alabama, the corporate class Republicans are the progressives on many issues and for decades they have had bitter fights on issue after issue with the rural, racist wing of the party. They loved W and Romney, but Trump is trashy. He rails against the elites, but they identify with the elites.
147
I don't think the NYT reporters get out enough among the rural folk. It's like that old New Yorker cartoon: for the NYT, does life end at city limits?
As someone who lives out in the country, I can tell you, the angry-white haters and never-Hillary zealots are alive and well. They may not have put out yard signs yet, but they are out here like dark clouds on the fringes of urbanite. The test will be in the Southern suburbs.
Let's hope there are enough urbanites and urbane folk to crush American Fascism everywhere.
As someone who lives out in the country, I can tell you, the angry-white haters and never-Hillary zealots are alive and well. They may not have put out yard signs yet, but they are out here like dark clouds on the fringes of urbanite. The test will be in the Southern suburbs.
Let's hope there are enough urbanites and urbane folk to crush American Fascism everywhere.
319
The thing about the rural out-in-the-country v0ters is, well, that they live in rural areas. By the very meaning of the term "rural", there just aren't a whole lot of them.
The electoral college is skewed toward rural states with their mandatory 3 votes regardless of population, but once you start moving beyond the 3-6 EC votes states, what the rural population thinks doesn't really matter so much. GA didn't get to 16 EC votes by an explosion in its rural population. It did it by immigration of people from the northeast and midwest.
Aside from the numerous African-Americans who returned to the south, what passes for "conservatism" in the northeast and midwest is often far more toward the centrist view than southern conservatism.
The electoral college is skewed toward rural states with their mandatory 3 votes regardless of population, but once you start moving beyond the 3-6 EC votes states, what the rural population thinks doesn't really matter so much. GA didn't get to 16 EC votes by an explosion in its rural population. It did it by immigration of people from the northeast and midwest.
Aside from the numerous African-Americans who returned to the south, what passes for "conservatism" in the northeast and midwest is often far more toward the centrist view than southern conservatism.
16
The editorial explicitly discusses angry, rural white voters: they are the heirs to the Dixiecrats and loyal Trump supporters. The problem is Trump is not carrying the other folks that tend to vote Republican in the South ... suburban Republicans.
2
Take a look at the county by county electoral maps that you can find on internet from 2008 and 2012 elections and you'll see that even in the Bluest states the aura counties tend to be Red while in the Redest states the urban counties are blue. It is quite a marked and remarkable divide. There are exceptions. Rural Vilas and Oneida counties in Northen Wisconsin went for Obama and so did Indiana in 2008. In fact how come it is so pro Trump in this election? Or was it all those hundreds of carpet bagger door-to-door workers from Hyde Park in Chicago that turned that election in Indiana bringing it home fr Obama?
We live in interesting times, as the Chinese curse has it. Would that the Trump supporters on the Right Wing Nut sites weren't so angry, so vituperative, so spewing forth of invective and rage. That is what is frightening in this election. As is the way Trump has managed to feed and stoke that anger and give it voice. Only a blow out election loss for Trump may make it go back into its lair again.
We live in interesting times, as the Chinese curse has it. Would that the Trump supporters on the Right Wing Nut sites weren't so angry, so vituperative, so spewing forth of invective and rage. That is what is frightening in this election. As is the way Trump has managed to feed and stoke that anger and give it voice. Only a blow out election loss for Trump may make it go back into its lair again.
3
"an urban liberal-moderate Democratic Party fights for votes in the increasingly multiethnic metropolitan South against an increasingly rural, nationalistic Republican Party." Quite close to describing South Carolina. Charleston has had a liberal democrat mayor for the past fifty years; and a huge influx of out-of-staters - mostly from up north - has added to the trend in the entire burgeoning metro region. But head out to the rural areas - and whew - it's another country in language, beliefs, values and culture. Maybe, in some future South Carolina a Hillary Clinton could carry the state; but seriously doubt it for this November.
29
But out there in those rural areas where hard-right Republicans dominate their Party is a growing population of blacks and Hispanics that has more in common with those educated suburbanites. A critical issue for Democrats is getting them registered and voting. Not for nothing have GA Republicans used their control of the state government to pass strict voter ID laws and other measures, like fewer early voting days, deliberately designed to limit minority voting. Republicans nationwide know full well what the long-term demographic trends are, and they're doing all in their power to use gerrymandering and other laws to thwart the will of the majority. Not even Joe McCarthy aimed such a dagger at the heart of American democracy.
121
Trump is up +4 in Georgia.
In no way is he losing Georgia.
In no way is he losing Georgia.
4
A GOP presidential candidate in Georgia leads the Democrat candidate by four percent two plus months from Election day ? Trump is losing Georgia.
13
Actually he's up less than 1 or 2 pts., if you amalgamate all polls. Further, even if it were only 4, you make the author's point: Republicans should be leading Georgia by 10-12.
The state is in play. Even if Clinton loses it, which I think she will, Trump has to defend it, which diverts resources from places like OH and FL. It's win no matter what for HRC.
That's what's different about this cycle, and should be alarming to the GOP
The state is in play. Even if Clinton loses it, which I think she will, Trump has to defend it, which diverts resources from places like OH and FL. It's win no matter what for HRC.
That's what's different about this cycle, and should be alarming to the GOP
51
For now. But trump is in a downward spiral that will leave him in the losing column in every state. We are expecting the greatest political defeat in the entire history of the presidency. A snack down of unprecedented proportions.
22
So the genteel south is finding Trump as off-putting as the polite rust belt folks.
Very interesting. Also hopeful for civic life.
Very interesting. Also hopeful for civic life.
177
Clinton is now declining fast.
The LATimes poll, updated daily, shows her 1% behind Trump now, and losing in the last week about 20% of her advantage with Latinos and the same of her advantage with Blacks.
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
The LATimes poll, updated daily, shows her 1% behind Trump now, and losing in the last week about 20% of her advantage with Latinos and the same of her advantage with Blacks.
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
5
You are aware that that is a tracking survey which "polls" the same 3000 people continuously, right? Right?
31
That 1% is well within the margin of error. The same poll also says who voters think will win is more predictive of the election than who people say they will vote for and that 54 % of the people surveyed think that Hillary Clinton will win and only 40% think that the winner will be Trump.
31
The person with the most electoral votes will become president. The popular vote is nearly irrelevant. Trump will not be president.
83
Trump's uncouth and vulgar campaign has done what I thought might take 25 more years, turned this state purple. The old guard will still vote the party line, but they can't live forever, and their grandchildren are becoming considerably less conservative.
Georgia also has a large, and growing, minority population. The nationalism and isolationist ideals do not sit well with them. With two universities in Atlanta, Emory and Ga Tech, which attract multinational students from outside the US and many northern more liberal American students, we are getting highly educated people who sometimes stay in our city to raise a family. Where I live in a northern suburb we have a large Korean American and Indian American population, along with Mexican Americans. On my small street alone with only 5 homes there are a Cuban American and a Chinese American household.
America, especially urban America, is changing demographics very rapidly. I think this is where a good portion of this election's rabid hatred comes from. White people see this, they would have to be blind not to, and are concerned about not being in charge. Obama's election rocked their world and they are fighting mad.
In 1982 I married into a Lebanese American family as the first Caucasian. Up until that second generation they only married other Lebanese. All 6 of my husband's family's children married Caucasians. Mixed race marriage is common now, Millennials don't care, and they have a mixed race president to immolate.
Georgia also has a large, and growing, minority population. The nationalism and isolationist ideals do not sit well with them. With two universities in Atlanta, Emory and Ga Tech, which attract multinational students from outside the US and many northern more liberal American students, we are getting highly educated people who sometimes stay in our city to raise a family. Where I live in a northern suburb we have a large Korean American and Indian American population, along with Mexican Americans. On my small street alone with only 5 homes there are a Cuban American and a Chinese American household.
America, especially urban America, is changing demographics very rapidly. I think this is where a good portion of this election's rabid hatred comes from. White people see this, they would have to be blind not to, and are concerned about not being in charge. Obama's election rocked their world and they are fighting mad.
In 1982 I married into a Lebanese American family as the first Caucasian. Up until that second generation they only married other Lebanese. All 6 of my husband's family's children married Caucasians. Mixed race marriage is common now, Millennials don't care, and they have a mixed race president to immolate.
307
Did you mean to type "emulate" (match or surpass, typically by imitation) rather than "immolate" (kill or offer as a sacrifice, especially by burning)? I certainly hope so. Perhaps automatic spell-check did you in.
65
Ouch! It's "emulate" you want, not "immolate." (But I concur with what you are saying in your post.)
13
International students can't vote and most often college students vote in the state in which they live.
1
Never underestimate the power of the Scarlet Letter. For a Southern Republican to become a Southern Democrat would require the same difficulty as a Roman Catholic converting to Judaism.
12
Ah, thank god for the secret ballot then. I know plenty Republicans who cannot stomach DJT and although they dislike Hillary will vote for her.
248
I'm an RC. Not as big a stretch as you might think....
36
We have to hope that this is the beginning of a party realignment.
Although ordinary Republicans appear to have become somewhat more conservative, it is also clear that Republican Party activists and legislators are considerably more "conservative" (whatever this now really means, since it really stands for imbeciles or obstructionists) than ordinary Republican voters.
If the Democratic Party can develop a focus on the problems of the working class and small business, the Trump-sundered Republican Party can be split apart forever. But that is a tall order coming from this Democratic Party, which is more focused on multicultural issues than anything else.
So prospects are not great for a Democratic Realignment but possibilities are there.
Although ordinary Republicans appear to have become somewhat more conservative, it is also clear that Republican Party activists and legislators are considerably more "conservative" (whatever this now really means, since it really stands for imbeciles or obstructionists) than ordinary Republican voters.
If the Democratic Party can develop a focus on the problems of the working class and small business, the Trump-sundered Republican Party can be split apart forever. But that is a tall order coming from this Democratic Party, which is more focused on multicultural issues than anything else.
So prospects are not great for a Democratic Realignment but possibilities are there.
53
Iced Teaparty - Would that the Democratic Party could "develop a focus on the problems of the working class and small business." The party left that group behind quite awhile ago, and now represent corporate interests and those of the college educated, decently employed. At this point, neither party represents the working class, the poor, or the common good. Perhaps a third party can emerge that truly represents the disenfranchised and the desperately needed focus on the common good.
2
Politics follows economics. Progressives have recognized the importance of Government investment in healthcare, education, and technology. NASA, the CDC, TVA, and NC's Research Triangle are just a few examples of the economic impact of collective investment. In the private sector, the South's textile, tobacco, & furniture factories are changing to dynamic centers along our Interstate Highways.
We know, for example, that a very large portion of Florida will be underwater including some vital powerplants that provide cooling and lights, will be underwater unless we treat global warming as an international emergency and invest in technologies that American's can build and sell all over the World to create good paying jobs based on exports.
So I agree, Mrs. C has a blue South future.