I will take CROOKED over CRAZY anytime!!!
2
Keep dreaming, Demos. She is toast and you know it.
3
No. She'll likely win, but not because she's a good candidate. There is much to distrust and dislike about HRC: taking Big Wall Street money personally and for her campaign, Hawkish behavior in Bush's War vote and many times since, the--at best--lousy judgement re: her email set-up, and on and on.
Against a viable candidate, she would indeed be toast. Against Trump--maybe the worst candidate ever? She'll likely win.
Against a viable candidate, she would indeed be toast. Against Trump--maybe the worst candidate ever? She'll likely win.
2
Trump is the Andrew Dice Clay of politics. Dirty, vile, unfair (and untrue) insults will draw big crowds for awhile. But it's like slowing down to look at an accident on the highway: Not much to see but very dangerous.
6
Coal will take no other hue Trump will take no other view.
3
Are the American people so gullible that they would change their vote because Trump is now reading off of a telprompter? Or is it that some people just need an excuse to vote for the Trumpster because of their hatred for Hillary or democrats? We know how he would be after he has won the election because by then he would revert to the bigot he has shown himself to be. do conservatives think they could control him to gain the supreme Court majority or destroy social security? Perhaps conservatives having their own racist streak do not care about Trump's outrageous statements and are willing to risk the destruction of our government and the world for their own self serving purposes. Trump may fade in some polls but the risk that he might be placed in the White House is a nightmare.
10
Gullibility doesn't just pop-up out of nowhere. Nor does it suddenly grip an entire subset of voters. This state of mind has been cultivated by certain cable channels and radio stations ever since Bill Clinton was elected President. With the Clintons in the White House, and especially when Gingrich sat in the Speaker's chair, we saw the beginning of demonization, character assassination, jingoistic name calling and misinformation as a matter of policy. Allegations became fact and long accepted facts became both malleable and even subject to complete reinvention. The GOP became the party of righteous indignation and anointed by radical groups hiding behind a perverse interpretation of "Christianity". During the GW Bush years the 'Ailes-Limbaugh' inspired media outlets were either loyally supportive or in many cases railing for even more radical policies. And then came Senator Barack Obama. I won't go into the nitty gritty because at this point I think you have figured out my thesis. Trump has simply taking on the Ailes-Limbaugh-Breitbart mantra and told the devotees what they want to hear. They love it because they've heard it already from the cacophony of 'Fair and Balanced' celebrities and they like what they hear.
6
It goes back farther--at least back to Lee Atwater of the Reagan administration.
Check this out...
https://www.thenation.com/article/exclusive-lee-atwaters-infamous-1981-i...
At least Atwater, dying of cancer years later, had the decency--or fear for his soul--that led to his deathbed repentance.
Check this out...
https://www.thenation.com/article/exclusive-lee-atwaters-infamous-1981-i...
At least Atwater, dying of cancer years later, had the decency--or fear for his soul--that led to his deathbed repentance.
How can you blame Newt, that sweet family man? He supports the institution of marriage so strongly that he has leapt into it thrice.
"3) Trump could change his approach, becoming more disciplined and staying on message."
Are people so dumb as to believe the leopard can change its spots? Probably, alas.
Are people so dumb as to believe the leopard can change its spots? Probably, alas.
8
Dems should not get complacent.
Just because he is perhaps the worst candidate ever does not mean her deep flaws will--or should be--ignored. Being less odious to a large portion of the Democratic Party is hardly a recommendation designed to generate lots of energy.
Her support is very soft, and if she seems inevitable, many less-than-enthusiastic supporters will stay home.
Her ongoing Hawkish stances will continue to turn many off, as will her huge money grabs from Wall Street, both personally and for her campaign. The email debacle was--at best--very poor judgement.
So, if Dems want to win even with their weak candidate, they will get out the vote and work right up to election day.
Just because he is perhaps the worst candidate ever does not mean her deep flaws will--or should be--ignored. Being less odious to a large portion of the Democratic Party is hardly a recommendation designed to generate lots of energy.
Her support is very soft, and if she seems inevitable, many less-than-enthusiastic supporters will stay home.
Her ongoing Hawkish stances will continue to turn many off, as will her huge money grabs from Wall Street, both personally and for her campaign. The email debacle was--at best--very poor judgement.
So, if Dems want to win even with their weak candidate, they will get out the vote and work right up to election day.
8
Really like reading your analyses but could you choose other analogies than football (or whatever sport you're referring to) as they don't resonate for me. Sorry, but would really like to follow you with some understanding.
5
One thing that is not being taken into light is his failure to reveal His tax returns.
We all know that people involved in real estate holdings have strategies to avoid taxes at all or very little. Judging by his frugal nature, I am quite sure he is in that boat. Then there is the issue with Russian Banks and/or investors.
The tax return / returns tell all.
Unless he reveals his tax returns' I am quite sure that he does not stand a swinging chance, and if he does, his boat is sunk.
It is a situation he cannot recover from.
We all know that people involved in real estate holdings have strategies to avoid taxes at all or very little. Judging by his frugal nature, I am quite sure he is in that boat. Then there is the issue with Russian Banks and/or investors.
The tax return / returns tell all.
Unless he reveals his tax returns' I am quite sure that he does not stand a swinging chance, and if he does, his boat is sunk.
It is a situation he cannot recover from.
10
Many analysts are speculating that an October surprise, revelations about Clinton, could work in Trump's favor. But isn't it just as likely, or even more so, given that Clinton has been vetted for 25 years and Trump not all seriously. that revelations about Trump could further cook his goose? Tax leaks, lying about being a billionaire, health report, law suits, matrimonial/divorce crap... the possibilities seem endless.
9
I find children to be the best judge of character. They haven’t been polluted by society YET! Look at differences between how children and babies interact with President Obama or Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump. Children have no problem showing how they feel.
Trump on his own child;
Trump on “The View” “I don’t think Ivanka would do that [pose for nude photographs] inside the magazine,” Trump says, speaking for his daughter. “Although she does have a very nice figure. I’ve said that if Ivanka weren’t my daughter, perhaps, I would be dating her.”
And then, as the words he had just spoken formed meaning in his mind, Trump asked: “Is that terrible?”
Joy Behar asks “Who are you, Woody Allen?” Everyone laughs, including Donald Trump, who remarks “That’s very good.”
“He told Rolling Stone that if he weren’t happily married and his daughter’s father, he’d — well, he didn’t finish the thought, but you can guess what he meant."
Trump on his own child;
Trump on “The View” “I don’t think Ivanka would do that [pose for nude photographs] inside the magazine,” Trump says, speaking for his daughter. “Although she does have a very nice figure. I’ve said that if Ivanka weren’t my daughter, perhaps, I would be dating her.”
And then, as the words he had just spoken formed meaning in his mind, Trump asked: “Is that terrible?”
Joy Behar asks “Who are you, Woody Allen?” Everyone laughs, including Donald Trump, who remarks “That’s very good.”
“He told Rolling Stone that if he weren’t happily married and his daughter’s father, he’d — well, he didn’t finish the thought, but you can guess what he meant."
12
Billary would have to be caught with her hands in the cookie jar to loose this one at this point in time.
2
By Trump openly discussing his willingness to use nuclear weapons, to be flippant about their use, it allows the conversations to equally go to our enemies that either have nuclear capabilities or our enemies without nuclear weapons who will do what is necessary to acquire a nuclear weapon. They too can begin the thought process of "hey, let's just use nuclear weapons". From that thought process, you only have to worry about who draws first blood. Nuclear weapons do not have to be ICBMs, they can be tactical. You can drive them up to the attack site in a car trunk. The twin towers will look like toy bowling pins falling compared to a nuclear explosion in a city the size of NY.
4
How right you are! Trump is the "real" loose cannon! Americans should be absolutely terrorized of a Trump Presidency!
1
This election may be tribal plus disgusted voters. So, don't get too worked up about the polls.
2
A serious concern with the Trump campaign is that his negative bare-knuckle approach to Mrs. Clinton's lead in the polls may result in violence by Trump supporters. The Trump brand is at risk of being coined as a definition for a new verb in the political lexicon:
Trump, as in, "She was trumped." verb; criticized by a political competitor who uses rhetorical excess, conspiracy theories and false representations to incite hatred against his opponent; derived from the 2016 Presidential Election campaign (Hillary Clinton - Dem. v. Donald Trump - Rep.).
Trump, as in, "She was trumped." verb; criticized by a political competitor who uses rhetorical excess, conspiracy theories and false representations to incite hatred against his opponent; derived from the 2016 Presidential Election campaign (Hillary Clinton - Dem. v. Donald Trump - Rep.).
4
Based on each of the terrorist acts that Trunp has publicly pronounced about, he will not 'gain' if it happens again before election. A loser is a loser.
2
Everything we know about Donald Trump indicates that he has no interest in winning this race.
Some have said that winning the White House would be the ultimate reward for his huge ego. But what Trump really likes is money. If he actually wins the Presidency, he is locked into it for at least four years, and he would have to do a ton of work. He stands to earn many, many millions more dollars on the conservative lecture circuit after losing the election. We can reasonably assume that his finances are probably not as good as he says they are. Is he really going to settle for $400,000 a year when he can make millions instead? At the age of 70, he doesn't have a lot of earning years left. Losing the election is his meal ticket.
Some have said that winning the White House would be the ultimate reward for his huge ego. But what Trump really likes is money. If he actually wins the Presidency, he is locked into it for at least four years, and he would have to do a ton of work. He stands to earn many, many millions more dollars on the conservative lecture circuit after losing the election. We can reasonably assume that his finances are probably not as good as he says they are. Is he really going to settle for $400,000 a year when he can make millions instead? At the age of 70, he doesn't have a lot of earning years left. Losing the election is his meal ticket.
17
Maybe it's smart or stupid for the future President to not go deep on political ads so early, but one the debates begin, I think the election will be seriously on.
I think the people who vote early are the most determinedly partisan anyway.
All 3 debates - if Hillary is available - will impact the outcome more than ever before. Candy Crowley need not apply, having exploded all of her credibility campaigning for Obama last time.
I think the people who vote early are the most determinedly partisan anyway.
All 3 debates - if Hillary is available - will impact the outcome more than ever before. Candy Crowley need not apply, having exploded all of her credibility campaigning for Obama last time.
3
You seem to have missed the fact that Trump is trying to weasel out of the debates.
6
It's a bit surprising to see veteran journalists claiming John Kasich is anything other than a mainstream (which is to say, radical) Republican. While he may choose to present himself as a genial moderate, his actual policy positions are anything but. Whether it's women's health, public education, civil rights, or myriad other issues, Kasich is firmly aligned with his political party. It does readers a disservice to suggest otherwise.
18
He did expand Medicaid.
1
Just because Kasich is right of center does not mean he is radical right. He is a Republican like Clinton is a Democrat. I can appreciate both of them for being not too far left or right. I think the biggest problem with America's politics right now is that there are not enough people from either party who are willing to look to the middle for answers. This is especially pronounced in the Republican party.
Outcome based polling and so-called elections analysts would like the folks to believe what they so desperately want the folks to believe. They want people to believe career criminal liar sociopath Mrs. Clinton (and spuse? Bill) will make for a better president than the grassroots government reform movement headed by messenger Mr. Trump. The choice is clear. A continuation of the disastrous obama rregime and rerun of the scandalous Clinton years - or - a new beginning for America. You decide..
6
your arguments would have more traction if you didn't sound like
Sarah Palin. Is it ridiculous to label Ms. Clinton a sociopath? There is
no grassroots government reform movement running for president.
There is a grassroots hatred=ignorance=exclusionary movement that
needs to be educated, engaging in dialogue, and willing to evolve.
The world runs on love. It breaks down on hate.
Sarah Palin. Is it ridiculous to label Ms. Clinton a sociopath? There is
no grassroots government reform movement running for president.
There is a grassroots hatred=ignorance=exclusionary movement that
needs to be educated, engaging in dialogue, and willing to evolve.
The world runs on love. It breaks down on hate.
22
The grassroots government reform candidate was Bernie Sanders! Where have you been for the last 7 months? Trump is no reformer. Nor, can he change into a reformer in the next 75 days.
1
Can we stop talking about a Clinton landslide for a couple of months? We'll pretty much know by the third week in October where things stand. Talk of a big win this early can only bring on hubris, a let down in effort and a lower Democratic turnout. The latter will hurt the down ticket candidates and a chance to retake the Senate.
As Hans Solo said to Luke Skywalker, "Don't get cocky, kid."
As Hans Solo said to Luke Skywalker, "Don't get cocky, kid."
24
Have to second RDG's warning. There's nothing so dangerous as the "sure thing" of a victory. The paranoia in the electorate that brought T. the nomination is still out there; and almost anything could "trip the circuit" of another round of zenophobic overreactions. Another shooting incident by a minority inflamed by police violence, another "lone wolf" terrorist attack...and who knows what the impact might be on a poorly informed public. We need to stay focused on educating people about what's at stake in this election. Keep in mind that even when Clinton wins the "nut-jobs" who took over the Republican party will likely still control the House. Nothing about governing is going to get much easier. Maybe we'll get lucky and the House will fall. Don't bet on it. Campaign for it.
8
This "landslide" map shows the bare minimum of states that Clinton will win. The media is far too biased in the pro-Trump direction because of the false equivalence of "there are always two equally balanced sides to every story!" principle of truthless journalism. The facts: Trump is a mentally ill Sociopath who is likely suffering from early-stage Alzheimer's disease (as did his father) exacerbated by his steady diet of KFC, McDonald's, and "the best tacos in the world: made at Trump tower grill!" He has never held any kind of political office, has been repudiated by his own political party, is a failed businessman who has been sued and lost many times for outright fraud, has been forced to declare bankruptcy 4 times, has been enthusiastically endorsed by the KKK, the American Nazi party, Vladimir Putin and Kim-Jong-Un, keeps a copy of Mein Kampf under his pillow for bedtime reading (look it up), and whose signature campaign promise is "let's build a wall and kick out all the Muslims and Mexicans." His grasp of reality is increasingly tenuous and he has recently attacked the mother of a dead American soldier, requested that someone please murder his opponent, and has already effectively conceding the race, whining that the election is "rigged" because he knows he will lose. Clinton will win missouri, indiana, mississippi, alaska, texas, south carolina, arizona, and utah without a doubt, and possibly more. If Trump wins more than 5-10 states it will be an upset.
23
The numbers are "baked in" simply because college educated Independents and Republicans are not going to change their minds again and vote for Trump no matter how odious they believe HRC to be.
Only Democrats sitting home and believing that the election is over will make Trump President.
Only Democrats sitting home and believing that the election is over will make Trump President.
28
Why do reporters and pundits keep asking if Trump can change for the general election? This IS the general election, and it has been since he and Clinton won their parties' nominations two months ago.
It appears that Trump is making a determined effort to change--and even though he is trying to come across as a statesman, the effect is to make him seem weirder than he already was. He reads the teleprompters as if he had never in his life entertained the thoughts he is expressing--hence the woodenness of his dellivery.
What I also noticed from watching the recent rallies is that the crowds don't seem as loud and enthusiastic as they used to. These are red-meat conservatives who came looking for Muhammed Ali in his braggy prime, and they are getting George HW Bush on Xanax. The cheers arise on cue, but there's a note of puzzlement and disappointment amid the cries of "Lock her up!"
If Trump sticks with this latest persona, I predict the crowds will get smaller and smaller, right-wing social media will start framing him as a RINO, just like all the others, but unless he canshow up at the debates with deep knowledge of US foreign and domestic policy--a big reach even if he had Michael Phelps' wingspan--the Republicans who have deserted him won't trust the New Trump and will stay home in November.
If he relapses into Old Trump, disaffected Republicans will go incognito to the polls, vote for Clinton, and go home to get tearfully drunk.
Either way, we win.
It appears that Trump is making a determined effort to change--and even though he is trying to come across as a statesman, the effect is to make him seem weirder than he already was. He reads the teleprompters as if he had never in his life entertained the thoughts he is expressing--hence the woodenness of his dellivery.
What I also noticed from watching the recent rallies is that the crowds don't seem as loud and enthusiastic as they used to. These are red-meat conservatives who came looking for Muhammed Ali in his braggy prime, and they are getting George HW Bush on Xanax. The cheers arise on cue, but there's a note of puzzlement and disappointment amid the cries of "Lock her up!"
If Trump sticks with this latest persona, I predict the crowds will get smaller and smaller, right-wing social media will start framing him as a RINO, just like all the others, but unless he canshow up at the debates with deep knowledge of US foreign and domestic policy--a big reach even if he had Michael Phelps' wingspan--the Republicans who have deserted him won't trust the New Trump and will stay home in November.
If he relapses into Old Trump, disaffected Republicans will go incognito to the polls, vote for Clinton, and go home to get tearfully drunk.
Either way, we win.
21
May the deity of your choice be listening.
When is The Times going to QUIT going along with (certainly) Cable and STOP saying anything other than: "If Trump pivots and the GOP changes his stripes, the American Public is being given a puppet. a fraudster, a scam. That kind of Bait and Switch will spell disaster if he won and became president." I'd even bet The Times would be the first to write, "The emperor has no clothes."
1
Trump says he will not pivot, but I wonder what would happen to those enthusiastic crowds if he actually did? Suppose Trump began performing like an inauthentic Mitt Romney, avoided the hyperbole and inventing stories just for headlines, and was consistent in his messaging. Would that mob be disappointed and bored, once the lounge act changed into a college lecturer?
12
Gotta say: I knew Gerald Ford, Commentator (though not personally), and Donald Trump is no Gerald Ford.
11
Since we are all amateur psychologists--writers and readers, alike--I am surprised a very obvious explanation of Mr Trump's refusal to "act Presidential" and make this race competitive has not resurfaced: The Guy Doesn't Want To Be President!
He never did. He only wanted to burnish the Brand. Somehow things got away from him, and he was nominated. He can't just quit and even his terribly un Presidential comments have not quite guaranteed he will lose. Why would he listen to advisers that only wish to help him win?
He never did. He only wanted to burnish the Brand. Somehow things got away from him, and he was nominated. He can't just quit and even his terribly un Presidential comments have not quite guaranteed he will lose. Why would he listen to advisers that only wish to help him win?
9
But he will act presidential in the near future. Trump promised Republicans. “At some point I’ll be so presidential that you people will be so bored, and I’ll come back as a presidential person, and instead of 10,000 people I’ll have about 150 people and they’ll say, boy, he really looks presidential,” he said in April.
5
"The Guy Doesn't Want To Be President!"
You are correct. Melania confided to me that all he really wanted was his own late-night television show on Fox, but his audiences misconstrued his remarks and the the whole thing blew out of proportion when people started taking his sarcasm seriously. "Poor Donald," she lamented, "was carried away by the crowd's fervor."
Well, I guess we can kiss his wished-for "The Sarcasm Hour" with Donald Trump a wistful goodbye.
You are correct. Melania confided to me that all he really wanted was his own late-night television show on Fox, but his audiences misconstrued his remarks and the the whole thing blew out of proportion when people started taking his sarcasm seriously. "Poor Donald," she lamented, "was carried away by the crowd's fervor."
Well, I guess we can kiss his wished-for "The Sarcasm Hour" with Donald Trump a wistful goodbye.
4
Makes one think of the films "The Candidate" and "The Producers."
5
After Trump's new CEO and senior staff appointments today, who knows what will happen. Stephen Bannon may be a long time conservative, but he has no experience directing a presidential campaign. He's more of the trigger Trump pushes on his loud speaker every time he talks - Bannon however, is always in automatic speaker mode.
Public opinion research is so incredibly interesting, and Trump's constant campaign shake-ups only make it more fascinating to watch.
Public opinion research is so incredibly interesting, and Trump's constant campaign shake-ups only make it more fascinating to watch.
3
There is another problem with Trump. He won the white working class with a populist message that suggested he was serious about wages and would try to pull back after 16 years of war. If you cut out the rhetoric, he wasn't that far from Bernie.
That may be the standard speech, but it is absent in public. The economic team is extremely wealthy, and except to some extent on foreign trade, his economic speech was not far from Romney.
The immigration issue was directed at Latinos and seemed to be directed at wages. It could have been effective if aimed at Latino citizens whose wages are hurt by illegal and changed into a call for an immigration law that effectively limited new immigration in exchange for amnesty for those already in.
Instead he now says nothing about Latinos, but has shifted to Christie's failed concentration on security and terrorism and his solutions to the Middle East seem to be General Michael Flynn's, which are for deeper involvement in military action.
Instead of Perot's infomercials to break through press emphasis on his goofs, he won't even have his first ads until this weekend.
Yet, while the liberal media talks about a widening lead, the number in realclearpolitics keeps slipping and is now 6.0. If he had a good set of debates and ads, he could pull it out. If only he had enough knowledge to deal with her distortions and falsehoods. There seems little evidence of that.
That may be the standard speech, but it is absent in public. The economic team is extremely wealthy, and except to some extent on foreign trade, his economic speech was not far from Romney.
The immigration issue was directed at Latinos and seemed to be directed at wages. It could have been effective if aimed at Latino citizens whose wages are hurt by illegal and changed into a call for an immigration law that effectively limited new immigration in exchange for amnesty for those already in.
Instead he now says nothing about Latinos, but has shifted to Christie's failed concentration on security and terrorism and his solutions to the Middle East seem to be General Michael Flynn's, which are for deeper involvement in military action.
Instead of Perot's infomercials to break through press emphasis on his goofs, he won't even have his first ads until this weekend.
Yet, while the liberal media talks about a widening lead, the number in realclearpolitics keeps slipping and is now 6.0. If he had a good set of debates and ads, he could pull it out. If only he had enough knowledge to deal with her distortions and falsehoods. There seems little evidence of that.
" If only he had enough knowledge to deal with her distortions and falsehoods."
Pft! D. Trump doesn't need knowledge--he just pulls accusations out of his a-- ... ahem ... ear and repeats them at top volume until credulous people believe him.
What makes this so funny is that when it comes to distortions and falsehoods, Trump is the unrivaled champion of the world. From birther rumors to Muslims dancing on 9/11 to declaring that losing this election will be proof that the game is rigged, it's all rip and read, right from the reptile brain to the microphone.
Fortunately, Clinton DOES have the knowledge to deal with his distortions and falsehoods.
Pft! D. Trump doesn't need knowledge--he just pulls accusations out of his a-- ... ahem ... ear and repeats them at top volume until credulous people believe him.
What makes this so funny is that when it comes to distortions and falsehoods, Trump is the unrivaled champion of the world. From birther rumors to Muslims dancing on 9/11 to declaring that losing this election will be proof that the game is rigged, it's all rip and read, right from the reptile brain to the microphone.
Fortunately, Clinton DOES have the knowledge to deal with his distortions and falsehoods.
15
If my grandmother had wheels, she could have been a bicycle.
1
Trump has ruined my hope for an election of the first woman as a grand affair and homage to all women for the one thing we have waited for so long. There are some of us who did not want to see the terrible mess and threat to our country that this man poses. In addition, the attacks by everyone on Mrs. Clinton are undeserved and one could only hope if she is elected that they do not continue into her administration . We do not want her to be the practice dummy for the Republican extremists to mistreat like they have President Obama for 8 long years. Disrepectful, disgusting, disturbing and totally unnecessary in a democratic form of government.
25
Trump is extremely dangerous, of course, but if HRC were running against a more viable candidate, she might well be behind, so maybe Trump is a blessing in disguise. We need to avoid complacency and get out to vote. She has big vulnerabilities, and not only among the haters, but among Dems as well.
HRC's critics quite legitimately point out her very hawkish behavior not only in voting for the Bush/Cheney War, but many times since. She has been paid Big Bucks from Wall Street, both personally and to her campaign. The email business was, at best, a lousy-optics move, even if legal. Voting For or Against HRC--or anyone else--because of her gender is sexist.
HRC's critics quite legitimately point out her very hawkish behavior not only in voting for the Bush/Cheney War, but many times since. She has been paid Big Bucks from Wall Street, both personally and to her campaign. The email business was, at best, a lousy-optics move, even if legal. Voting For or Against HRC--or anyone else--because of her gender is sexist.
8
Some time back, Paul Krugman warned that the media would try to make the election look closer and thus more interesting than it, in fact, is. I hope that is true. What I find frightening is the notion that Donald Trump would carry any state, or that anyone could vote for a party that nominated him. I fear for the future of our country. We are not threatened by outside forces--unless space aliens arrive--but our democracy may fail because American citizens are unable to sustain it. Of course, the information challenged have had help from the Republican Party that has been telling them that their bigotry was right for decades. This is why in the coming election the strongest predictor of the presidential vote will be the percentage of college graduates in the state populations.
23
The more people realize that Hillary will bring nothing that Obama hasn't done, including the cultural destruction, the parents are going to quit listening to her. She needs medical care, not more responsibilities.
Especially since she never did anything with other responsibilities except meet, greet, and fly a lot. We already have a group that loves to fly places.
The U.S. doesn't have another eight years to waste on people who are masters at elections but never cared to try to lead people.
As a dad of a young woman, I'd love to have Americans to have a female President one day. But Hillary would open that era with as terrible an example as Barack has opened his race's own with. We need leaders, not tokens.
Especially since she never did anything with other responsibilities except meet, greet, and fly a lot. We already have a group that loves to fly places.
The U.S. doesn't have another eight years to waste on people who are masters at elections but never cared to try to lead people.
As a dad of a young woman, I'd love to have Americans to have a female President one day. But Hillary would open that era with as terrible an example as Barack has opened his race's own with. We need leaders, not tokens.
5
And flying a lot is so-o-o-o in compliance with our professed support for climate change initiatives.
2
A plague o'er both your houses. Hillary Clinton has worked like a dog her whole life, accomplishing more on behalf of women and children in a day than Trump will in a lifetime, and has the resume to show it.
Obama has been a fantastic leader--to those willing to be led. Unfortunately he was handed, as a Congress, a pack of developmentally delayed, eternally adolescent opponents who placed right-wing ideology above the real needs and concerns of their constituencies.
When he took office, American was engaged in trillion-dollar warfare in two countries, the world economy was collapsing and companies were shedding employees like a Persian cat sheds fur. Obama pledged to lead us out of these messes; and the opposition vowed to thwart him at every turn. How's that for serving one's constituents?
The snark about flying is ridiculous. How are your cars for fuel efficiency and pollution control? Do you practice conservation when you heat and light your home? Energy and transportation are by far the greatest contributors to greenhouse gases in the US; and planes account for 8% of transportation emissions. Guess which transportation type is the greatest contributor of greenhouse gas! That's right: Light-duty trucks, aka SUVs, at a whopping 61%.
What's in your garage?
Obama has been a fantastic leader--to those willing to be led. Unfortunately he was handed, as a Congress, a pack of developmentally delayed, eternally adolescent opponents who placed right-wing ideology above the real needs and concerns of their constituencies.
When he took office, American was engaged in trillion-dollar warfare in two countries, the world economy was collapsing and companies were shedding employees like a Persian cat sheds fur. Obama pledged to lead us out of these messes; and the opposition vowed to thwart him at every turn. How's that for serving one's constituents?
The snark about flying is ridiculous. How are your cars for fuel efficiency and pollution control? Do you practice conservation when you heat and light your home? Energy and transportation are by far the greatest contributors to greenhouse gases in the US; and planes account for 8% of transportation emissions. Guess which transportation type is the greatest contributor of greenhouse gas! That's right: Light-duty trucks, aka SUVs, at a whopping 61%.
What's in your garage?
20
Cultural destruction?
3
I wish Nate Cohn would stop using data to give a false sense of rigor to his biased political views. For example, he keeps claiming that Humphrey had a tight race against Nixon in '68. Since it fits his political objective, he considers the popular vote that was indeed close between these two because there was a popular THIRD candidate, the segregationist George Wallace, that split, primarily, the Nixon popular vote. It terms of the election itself, i.e. electoral votes, Humphrey got annihilated. If Nate Cohn ever did 'data analysis' he might find that the empirical evidence would often take him elsewhere.
6
Nate surely went to college to be a professional. But the best job he could get was generating political fodder for an entirely political operation.
There is a job out there that will allow Nate to be the independent voice his teachers had to hope he might become, instead of just becoming one more progressive gate guard in the same long line as Dan Rather and Paul Krugman.
There is a job out there that will allow Nate to be the independent voice his teachers had to hope he might become, instead of just becoming one more progressive gate guard in the same long line as Dan Rather and Paul Krugman.
1
Looking forward to your posts on the day after Election Day.
7
The commentators are still pulling their punches, perhaps pretending to be neutral observers. Trump has zero real chance of election and that is a solid expectation known now by him, the GOP professionals, the other Republicans running this year, and all the Democrats (and that includes all the Democrats writing breathless NYT op-ed pieces about how Trump cannot be trusted with control over nuclear weapons). We are in the midst of a gigantic, expensive, goofy piece of performance art where Trump continues to pretend to be actually running for office and the Democrats and the media publicly pretend that he is actually a credible candidate who might win the election.
9
Trump will carry 40 states including half the big ten. And that's not counting indictments for lying to Congress or the next Wikileaks disclosure.
Remember, she's following in the worst footsteps - the worst coattails - any candidate ever had to follow.
Remember, she's following in the worst footsteps - the worst coattails - any candidate ever had to follow.
4
Sorry, what? Obama's administration is far and wide considered to be one of the most ethical in US history. If you know differently, please share a list and be sure to compare it to past administrations--including that of St. Ronald Reagan.
13
As demonstrated, to take just one example, of Loretta Lynch's "accidentally running into" Billary 1.0 on the tarmac in Arizona. One of the most ethical, if you mean that sarcastically, I agree.
Dems should not get complacent. Vote, and get others to vote.
HRC is a very flawed candidate who will get the haters out to vote against her. Even among Dems she is suspect...her foreign policy helped Bush/Cheney's War, and she has been a Hawk since as well. The email stuff is bad news, as is her terrible Wall Street connection. If she were running against a more viable candidate, she'd likely be behind.
So, her support is pretty soft, and it will be easy for lots of voters to stay home, making this a closer election than many believe.
HRC is a very flawed candidate who will get the haters out to vote against her. Even among Dems she is suspect...her foreign policy helped Bush/Cheney's War, and she has been a Hawk since as well. The email stuff is bad news, as is her terrible Wall Street connection. If she were running against a more viable candidate, she'd likely be behind.
So, her support is pretty soft, and it will be easy for lots of voters to stay home, making this a closer election than many believe.
9
I have been listening to 4 months of the pivot talk. The Donald is the Donald and that's okay. Win or lose on your ideas and capabilities.
4
"Pivot" is just another Newspeak synonym for "pander" anyway.
6
Through all of this, I'm starting to wonder how we take into account when poll respondents lie about who they will actually vote for. Because the narrative is "Trump supporters are bigoted white men without a college education" (i.e. not very smart), I'm guessing that a (sizeable?) number of people who will ultimately vote for Donald Trump are too embarrassed by that to tell the truth to pollsters. In other words, this race may well be much closer than it looks.
4
I've heard this many times but it seems to be discounted simply because if what you suggested were true his actual results in primary elections would have been higher that where he was polling. And they weren't
10
Did Ryan Leaf just make an appearance in this discussion?!
In what universe does that map constitute a landslide? That Trump is expected to prevail in any state is unsettling.
8
It is a landslide by the electoral college vote tally.
11
363 to 175 is a pretty substantial landslide.
6
With this candidate the landslide map should look like it did in 72 or 84, except being entirely blue.
The map looks rather like Saul Steinberg's famous New Yorker cover; A New Yorker's view of the US. The east and west coasts and a great barren space in between.
5
Never underestimate the power of hate and bigotry to triumph in human affairs. This race will be close come Election Day. And even if Trump loses. the damage he has done (and will continue to do) to the national debate will continue.
26
I think the election may be closer than what you see today but........I believe Clinton will win with somewhere between 150 and 200 electoral votes. Guess it depends on what your definition of close is.
2
Trump is "Don the Con" and his con game did not work with the American people! His possible control of nuclear weapons as POTUS was enough for me to switch from Bernie to Hillary and Bill!
22
Item (2) suggests that Republicans have strayed from their candidate but "can come back into the fold." You must be focusing on Republican elites, since Republican voters back Trump as solidly as Democrats support Clinton. In a recent Ipsos/Reuters poll, 76% of Democrats said they would vote for Clinton in a four-way race with Johnson and Stein, compared to 77% of Republicans. Other pollsters like IBD/TIPP show similar results. Regardless of the stuttering and posturing of Republican office-holders, particularly Senators up for re-election like John McCain, the polling evidence suggests Republican voters are as loyal to their candidate as Democrats are to theirs.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-25129
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ibd-tipp-25071
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ipsos-reuters-25129
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/ibd-tipp-25071
5
You're looking at one poll. The polls I've seen have shown Clinton with Democratic support in the high 80's and Trump in the mid 70's with Republicans. Additionally, I see more Republicans voting for Clinton than I do Democrats voting for Trump
2
Peter does make an important point, but I think Opiefred has made some good counterarguments. As usual with polls, results depend on precisely what question is asked. I notice two things of interest. First, Trump's average support among Republicans is a middle-ish number in the 70's, but this is only because of his large support among non-college white men. This strong polarization of interest groups is a clue that the Republican support level will be highly resistant to change. Also, I have heard that the Republicans who don't plan to vote for Trump are much more strongly against Trump than the Democrats who don't plan to vote for Clinton.
1
Here are the averages from all "likely voter" polls since early July where the Pollster dataset breaks out the results by partisanship:
Democrats 83% Clinton, 9% Trump, 4% Other
Independents 35% Clinton, 38% Trump, 13% Other
Republicans 8% Clinton, 78% Trump. 4% Other
The crossover figures are essentially identical, and the 83-78 difference between the partisans' support for their own candidates is pretty slim.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump...
Democrats 83% Clinton, 9% Trump, 4% Other
Independents 35% Clinton, 38% Trump, 13% Other
Republicans 8% Clinton, 78% Trump. 4% Other
The crossover figures are essentially identical, and the 83-78 difference between the partisans' support for their own candidates is pretty slim.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump...
I don't make much of leads in mid August---but if Mr. Trump keeps on irritating likely voters such as African Americans, Hispanics/Latinos, women, College Educated voters, and so on, then this Election could turn out to be just as bad as when Walter Mondale was trounced by Ronald Reagan in 1984.
8
How Trump could still rally?
"Nobody ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public."
Substitute for taste: intelligence, gullibility, common sense ...
I won't relax until November 10.
"Nobody ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American public."
Substitute for taste: intelligence, gullibility, common sense ...
I won't relax until November 10.
25
Well, I’m from (a close) Scranton (suburb), and there is one thing that concerns me: Trump lawn signs and bumper stickers outnumber Hillary signs and sticker by, I don’t know, 10-1? 20-1?
This is completely different from 2008 and 2012. In 2008, Hillary (almost a hometown girl, she was christened in Scranton) won Scranton big in the primaries; Obama won big in the general in 2008 and 2012. Lawn signs and bumper stickers gave a pretty reasonable indication of where things were headed every time, I thought.
So what’s different this time around? It’s not as if Trump signs abound; they don’t. While one can see a pretty decent number of Trump bumper stickers, esp. on — you guessed it — pickup trucks, there appear to be significantly fewer Trump lawn signs than McCain lawn signs.
But I have seen only a single Hillary lawn sign and the very few Hillary bumper stickers appear on cars with NY plates passing through.
Has anyone seen anything similar anywhere else? Could Hillary supporters be afraid of vandalism by radical Trump supporters. Other than the (admittedly very imprecise measure of signs and stickers) I have no reason to assume Hillary would be significantly less popular than in 2008.
This is completely different from 2008 and 2012. In 2008, Hillary (almost a hometown girl, she was christened in Scranton) won Scranton big in the primaries; Obama won big in the general in 2008 and 2012. Lawn signs and bumper stickers gave a pretty reasonable indication of where things were headed every time, I thought.
So what’s different this time around? It’s not as if Trump signs abound; they don’t. While one can see a pretty decent number of Trump bumper stickers, esp. on — you guessed it — pickup trucks, there appear to be significantly fewer Trump lawn signs than McCain lawn signs.
But I have seen only a single Hillary lawn sign and the very few Hillary bumper stickers appear on cars with NY plates passing through.
Has anyone seen anything similar anywhere else? Could Hillary supporters be afraid of vandalism by radical Trump supporters. Other than the (admittedly very imprecise measure of signs and stickers) I have no reason to assume Hillary would be significantly less popular than in 2008.
1
I can't speak to this race, but here in Vermont it was next to impossible for the casual voter to get Obama signs and stickers in '08 and '12 as the campaign was prioritizing swag to states were there was a race rather then areas they had already locked up.
3
are you somehow implying that a majority of Americans that drive pickups are Trump supporters? maybe you should dig deeper and break it down to the brand of pick up truck....
"Could Hillary supporters be afraid of vandalism by radical Trump supporters. "
...or the other way around?
I saw an item on--I think--CNN last week that showed a number of different incidents of surveillance cameras capturing (one assumes) HRC supporters (nearly all women, it appeared) stealing Trump lawn signs.
As for the pick-up crack, well, most of the people who lost their jobs 2007-2009 were guys who work at jobs like construction and the like, guys who drive trucks to make their living. Those jobs have not come back, and those guys and their families. feel ignored and dismissed, and even vilified.
See author JC Vance and Times writer Anand Giridharadas on Morning Joe. They say it far better than I.
http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/if-trump-loses-what-happens-to-hi...
...or the other way around?
I saw an item on--I think--CNN last week that showed a number of different incidents of surveillance cameras capturing (one assumes) HRC supporters (nearly all women, it appeared) stealing Trump lawn signs.
As for the pick-up crack, well, most of the people who lost their jobs 2007-2009 were guys who work at jobs like construction and the like, guys who drive trucks to make their living. Those jobs have not come back, and those guys and their families. feel ignored and dismissed, and even vilified.
See author JC Vance and Times writer Anand Giridharadas on Morning Joe. They say it far better than I.
http://www.msnbc.com/morning-joe/watch/if-trump-loses-what-happens-to-hi...
2
I would like to see a map with the size of the states adjusted for their electoral college votes.
5
538 has that map.
1
Vickie, scroll down 538's forecast, and you will find the map you are seeking:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
2
To be perfectly honest, I do not know if the media can be trusted any longer. Prime example is this publication. The NYT has been in the Clinton's biggest cheerleader, whether she deserves it or not. Mrs Clinton is the most corrupt, dishonest, and untrustworthy candidate ever to be a candidate for president. She is worse than Nixon ever was, but the press/media still fawns over her. How can I beleive the press/media, knowing that they are in the tank for Mrs Clinton, and her character?
9
To claim that Clinton is worse than Nixon erases any credibility you might have. Every time I ask someone with your general view about Clinton to give me specifics, most of their accusations fall into one of two categories: Completely false and de-bunked, or wildly overblown in importance. What remains is a record much like any career politician, far better than many (especially men) who are considered upright. Stop being brainwashed, or the next eight years are going to be unpleasant for you. BTW, Trump has thousands of lawsuits pending against him, has stiffed hundreds of working folks, is implicated in fraud, hides his taxes, and lies every time he opens his mouth. Next to him, Clinton is Mother Teresa.
21
I completely agree. I am constantly fact-checking allegations about Clinton only to find the attacks are exaggerated, taken out of context, unimportant, or just plain false. Whatever her faults may be, I don't think she is worse than most other politicians, and better than many.
21
Or lack thereof.
2
I'll be surprised if Trump doesn't find a way to avoid the debates. Aside from childish insults he has no skills, he knows little about anything of substance. Barring any surprises that put Clinton in total defense mode, there is little good that can come out of this for him.
23
I'm just waiting for the Trump campaign to either 1)complain about the debate moderators and try to get them replaced, or 2)refuse to participate entirely because the "system is rigged in favor or Clinton". I was 16 when Presidential debates resumed. We often forget that after the 1960 debates between Kennedy and Nixon, presidential candidates didn't debate at all. Goldwater was eager to debate Kennedy on foreign, domestic and economic policy, and Kennedy felt the same sense of eagerness. Goldwater totally distrusted Johnson, a distrust based on how he saw Johnson operate as Majority leader, so he never asked for debates. Given how Johnson came across on television, I doubt that he was eager to debate anyone. Nixon blamed the 1960 debates for his loss to Kennedy, so he never asked for a debate against either Humphrey or Wallace in 1968. Ditto for the 1972 campaign against McGovern.
1
The insult list is an impressive catalogue of a very disturbed mind. If Mr. Trump were not rich and prominent, he would be gently committed to a facility.
In 2012 Georgia went 45% for Pres. Obama, and it would be interesting if Trump reinvigorated blue dog Democrats in addition to others. Some election maps had a crescent of blue running across the Deep South.
In 2012 Georgia went 45% for Pres. Obama, and it would be interesting if Trump reinvigorated blue dog Democrats in addition to others. Some election maps had a crescent of blue running across the Deep South.
6
It's hard for me to see why anyone in the media with a functional brain would give Trump the time of day--unless he starts coming up with some decent policy proposals. Why the desire to encourage a horse race with a close finish when the possibility of damage is so great? What has Trump done--except have lots of money (which, sadly, is a big qualifier participation in our political system)--that shows him even minutely qualified to hold elected office in the United States, much less the highest elected office in the country? Clearly, the journalists that promote this horse race feel so outside the harm that candidates like Trump can do that they are comfortable treating this election like a sporting event. It's galling, to put it mildly.
14
Trump came up with the best policy proposal for this country that I have heard. End nation building. This is in direct opposition to Hillary's policy of seeking the support of war hawk generals and looking to make "regime change" everywhere.
11
Trump's got a single policy for every problem: platitude with attitude.
11
Someone recently told me that Trump reminds them of a Baptist preacher. As a lifelong Baptist, I don't see it. Sure, he's got the apocalyptic vision and fire and brimstone down pat, but he's missing the uplifting message of salvation and redemption.
I see Trump as more of a right-wing beat generation poet - Hunter S. Thompson without the drugs and alcohol. The stream of consciousness ramblings that he peddles as "thoughts"...the ridiculous situations he gets himself into...the self-centeredness...the "hair"...the list is long. All Trump needs to pull off the act is a ridiculous hat...oh, wait a minute....
I see Trump as more of a right-wing beat generation poet - Hunter S. Thompson without the drugs and alcohol. The stream of consciousness ramblings that he peddles as "thoughts"...the ridiculous situations he gets himself into...the self-centeredness...the "hair"...the list is long. All Trump needs to pull off the act is a ridiculous hat...oh, wait a minute....
13
No...whether one cares for Hunter S. Thompson's body of work or not, the man could observe, think, read and write....Trump cannot!
4
Let us not rule Trump out too quickly . Clinton Team better not be assured of winning. W e still have the debates and who knows what Trump is hiding up his sleeve.
8
So much for voting one's conscience....
3
The true face of the Republican Party is none other than good ol' Mitch McConnell, who according to recent polling is hated by over 70% of the US electorate. He is the most despised politician in Washington DC (which puts him in the running for most despised person worldwide) yet 100% of the Republican Senators voted as their first official act after winning control of the Senate to elevate the slimiest sleaze ball among them to be our great Nation's Senate majority leader and to allow the biggest career dirty trickster to set his extremist and well-known obstructionist agenda as our great Nation's Senate agenda.
The so-called 'moderate' republican Senators who are seeking reelection need to explain their vote for putting the most extreme person among them in charge and how that was supposed to benefit our Nation. See the disconnect between the GOP controlled Senate and we the people when over 70% of the population hates Mitch McConeell and his extremist obstructionism yet 100% of the GOP Senators voted to allow him to set our great Nation's senate agenda. The complete lack of judgment on the part of Kelly Ayotte, Mark Kirk, Rob Portman, Pat Toomey and Ron Johnson to vote to elevate the most despised among them to be the leader shows they are not fit to be US Senators and they lack the good judgment to be leaders of our Nation.
The so-called 'moderate' republican Senators who are seeking reelection need to explain their vote for putting the most extreme person among them in charge and how that was supposed to benefit our Nation. See the disconnect between the GOP controlled Senate and we the people when over 70% of the population hates Mitch McConeell and his extremist obstructionism yet 100% of the GOP Senators voted to allow him to set our great Nation's senate agenda. The complete lack of judgment on the part of Kelly Ayotte, Mark Kirk, Rob Portman, Pat Toomey and Ron Johnson to vote to elevate the most despised among them to be the leader shows they are not fit to be US Senators and they lack the good judgment to be leaders of our Nation.
54
G-nine
Mitch McConnell is the 2nd most despised republican senator. Ted Cruz is number 1 miost hated.
Mitch McConnell is the 2nd most despised republican senator. Ted Cruz is number 1 miost hated.
14
Sen. McConnell also gets the credit for a Senate that is working the least in 60 years with only 6 (partial) work days across July and August, despite Zika, catastrophic flooding, Russian cyberattacks, and a nominee for the Supreme Court they they placed in limbo for the longest period in history instead of doing their Constitutional duty. How would we know the difference if the Republicans lose the Senate since they don't bother to show up for work now?
23
The most intriguing element in this map may be that, with the exception of South Carolina, it projects victory for Clinton up and down both coasts. Of course it will probably not turn out that way; it's hard to believe that she will actually win Georgia. But it does suggest the possibility of a split in the south between Atlantic and inland states. That would be a new reality. Are we looking at the end of the southern strategy? How much of this has to do with demographic changes in southern Atlantic states as opposed to the fecklessness of the Republican candidate? Is this a taste of things to come?
25
Kasich not a generic Republican? Surely you jest.
He has:
Waged war against the unions...Check
Cut taxes for the wealthy...Check
Worked to funnel public school money to private charter schools...Check
Loosened gun restrictions...Check
Tried to defund Planned Parenthood and signed every abortion restriction that has come across his desk...Check
Cites his Christian faith early and often...Check
Yup, he's a generic Republican.
He has:
Waged war against the unions...Check
Cut taxes for the wealthy...Check
Worked to funnel public school money to private charter schools...Check
Loosened gun restrictions...Check
Tried to defund Planned Parenthood and signed every abortion restriction that has come across his desk...Check
Cites his Christian faith early and often...Check
Yup, he's a generic Republican.
90
Combining your items 3 and 4 on why it isn't over, Trump could change his approach and create a global or national calamity.
When you're a billionaire, and a narcissist who can't stand losing, all dogs can be wagged.
When you're a billionaire, and a narcissist who can't stand losing, all dogs can be wagged.
5
If this were a movie, and I'm not sure it's not, this would be the point where the powers that be find the guy who looks exactly like Donald Trump. The Donald-bot is about their only hope right now.
25
With the mouth running full-tilt with no governor, there's little doubt it's going to be a lot bluer by November.
10
First off, I'm no Hillary supporter. Like many Americans, I can't stand her for all the many reasons everyone inveighs against her. Nevertheless, Trump was trending downward since the Dem convention. He put himself on an irreversible path down when he trashed the Gold Star parents of an American-Muslim army hero. There comes a point in each campaign when folks simply make up their mind. I believe that has already happened. No need to hold the debates. My guess is that Trump will be the first major party candidate in history not to receive one electoral vote. The Republicans will lose the Senate as a result of this election disaster. The irony of all this is that this was the year that just about any sane Republican (this excludes Cruz) could win the election. The Dems handed them a tremendous gift.
14
Barring something completely unforeseen I can't see how Trump comes back. He cannot un-insult all those he has offended. There is no group that provides a wellspring of support for him outside his core constituency. I know the GOP is hoping some kind of erstwhile scandal sticks to Hillary, but we've seen 25 years of this and while it grinds down her overall support, it's not going to turn the general electorate against her.
22
His biggest supporter: the NRA. Says it all.
12
It's a bit frustrating and puzzling to me how less than two weeks ago the BIG news was that Trump's campaign collected $87 million, mostly in small donations. Since that news cycle, I haven't read one word about how or when the Trump campaign is going to deploy those assets, and the millions more sure to be donated between now and November. If money talks, the Trump campaign is currently swimming in it.
10
i predict the $87 million of small donations was an accounting lie to portray Trump as 'still in the running' with a groundswell of Berni- like small donor support.
-
Trump lies 80% of the time.
The $87 million was no different.
There is no $87 million to spend.
And Trump could but would not waste his own money in a sinking money pit of his campaign.
-
Trump lies 80% of the time.
The $87 million was no different.
There is no $87 million to spend.
And Trump could but would not waste his own money in a sinking money pit of his campaign.
14
There's some question about where $63 million went, and whether Trump paid back his own loans to himself.
4
In your list for why the race isn't over, Toni asks "Am I missing anything"?. You are:
5) The Trump campaign cheats in certain sections of the Battleground States.
6) The Trump campaign is successful in intimidating voters in certain sections of the Battleground States, a plan already formulated and publicized by Trump.
7) The assassination of Hillary Clinton, the suggestion of which has been made and encouraged by Donald J. Trump.
5) The Trump campaign cheats in certain sections of the Battleground States.
6) The Trump campaign is successful in intimidating voters in certain sections of the Battleground States, a plan already formulated and publicized by Trump.
7) The assassination of Hillary Clinton, the suggestion of which has been made and encouraged by Donald J. Trump.
16
Interesting if Trump loses Georgia.
Starting to look like McGovern vs Nixon - what were the Democrats thinking ?
But they came back to win in 1976...
Starting to look like McGovern vs Nixon - what were the Democrats thinking ?
But they came back to win in 1976...
6
You're slotting Clinton into the role of Nixon with this analogy, right?
3
First, the polls aren't wrong but they're no predictor of turnout. Trump has no ground game or paid staff in the battleground states other than the respective state's GOP organizations; the latter of which are underfunded administrative operations that are not GOTV oriented. On the other hand, Clinton has had paid professional organizers in these states for more than six (6) months. Advantage: HRC.
Second, the "composition" of the SCOTUS as a campaign issue is a loser and has been used in the past with no noticeable effect simply because it's too abstract a concept for most voters. Advantage: No one.
Third, Trump change his modus operandi? He's in Wisconsin today for a rally. Want to bet he doesn't use a teleprompter for his remarks? Advantage: HRC.
Fourth, in the past several months there have been domestic terrorist-related attacks in California and Florida and no doubt there will be more between now and November. Moreover, there is no doubt there will be more leaks from Julian Assange that will be brandished about by GOP Senators from states where my dog would get more votes for President than Hillary. Even with Trump blaming Obama & Clinton for everything "gone wrong," Independents; educated white Republican women and men; Hispanics; and Blacks in "huge" numbers aren't buying. Advantage: HRC.
Barring everyone "going fishing," the only thing Trump will be doing next year is pitching a new realty show, which, no doubt, someone will pick up and run in prime time.
Second, the "composition" of the SCOTUS as a campaign issue is a loser and has been used in the past with no noticeable effect simply because it's too abstract a concept for most voters. Advantage: No one.
Third, Trump change his modus operandi? He's in Wisconsin today for a rally. Want to bet he doesn't use a teleprompter for his remarks? Advantage: HRC.
Fourth, in the past several months there have been domestic terrorist-related attacks in California and Florida and no doubt there will be more between now and November. Moreover, there is no doubt there will be more leaks from Julian Assange that will be brandished about by GOP Senators from states where my dog would get more votes for President than Hillary. Even with Trump blaming Obama & Clinton for everything "gone wrong," Independents; educated white Republican women and men; Hispanics; and Blacks in "huge" numbers aren't buying. Advantage: HRC.
Barring everyone "going fishing," the only thing Trump will be doing next year is pitching a new realty show, which, no doubt, someone will pick up and run in prime time.
23
The distinction in polls between registered voters and "likely" voters is an indirect measure of turnout effects. Typically Democrats do slightly better in polls of registered voters since their base of identifiers has more of the types of people who turn out less regularly like young people and the less-educated. This year, though, in my analyses of polls conducted since January, I see no statistical difference between these two types of surveys. Clinton's lead over Trump is statistically the same whether the pollsters are interviewing registered voters or the subset of registered voters that pass the set of screening questions that are used to identify "likely" voters. Given historical patterns, that is good news for Clinton and the Democrats.
He is done, the map is highly credible and highly likely. His campaign has been as shoddy as the sadly cheap casinos, the sadly cheap buildings and the sadly cheap plane he uses to cart around his sadly orange face and cheap hair.
38
And we have had to endure the whole thing. Lucky us and our purist secularized Calvinist neoliberalism. Oh, the joys of late American capitalism in its trapped mythology.
2
The truly frightening issue is that Trump is competitive in any state at all. I don't care what grudge (imagined or otherwise) some individuals might have against Hillary Clinton -- the fact remains that you have a reasonably intelligent and experienced candidate against -- well, Donald Trump. You know -- the guy who was born on third base, trotted to the plate on someone else's sac-fly, and yet managed to convince himself (and apparently a lot of other people) that he hit a walk-off grand-slam.
There is quite clearly a sort of "Weimar" mentality taking hold of a significant portion of the American population. I'm not sure where it is going to lead, but I am sure that it won't be anyplace good.
There is quite clearly a sort of "Weimar" mentality taking hold of a significant portion of the American population. I'm not sure where it is going to lead, but I am sure that it won't be anyplace good.
77
Yes. A "reasonably intelligent and experienced" and corrupt-to-the-bone, lacking-in-any-shred-of-personal-integrity candidate, who will literally say or do anything to get elected. And whose entire campaign is based on (1) It's my turn; (2) I'm a woman; (3) I'm not Trump; (4) It's my turn. Yes, definitely has my vote. (What's an iceberg's chance in Hell?)
1
I think, as do many of people in the US also do, that Hillary is far from reliable, Her constant slip ups on TV make me worry, While on the other hand Trumps uncensored mouth is not as desirable but I would rather have a Hot Head in office than a Liar. In WW2 We had some of the craziest generals out there, Churchill, who isn't American but still, and Patton both wanted to invade Russia after the war. I think having a person in office like this can revitalize some things we've lost with the Obama administration being in office. Hopefully we can renew the title of a country not to be messed with if Trump is elected. I think this is the only thing letting him hold on to some of the Republican party.
5
Wouldn't be accurate to say that Trump is a liar as well? Beyond the well documented cases of his lying, Politifact says he is almost four times more likely to receive a False or Pants on Fire rating than Clinton.
I am deeply troubled by the damage a 'hot head' can do to international relations and economic stability. His glaring lack of understanding of domestic and world affairs leads me to say a flawed candidate is better than a poorly informed, short-tempered individual who has no experience with the intricacies of a functioning government.
I am deeply troubled by the damage a 'hot head' can do to international relations and economic stability. His glaring lack of understanding of domestic and world affairs leads me to say a flawed candidate is better than a poorly informed, short-tempered individual who has no experience with the intricacies of a functioning government.
41
What slip ups on TV are you referencing?
7
@cal
Having a "hothead" in the Oval Office is one thing.
Having a "hothead" with access to the Nuclear Codes is another.
No thanks, to both.
Having a "hothead" in the Oval Office is one thing.
Having a "hothead" with access to the Nuclear Codes is another.
No thanks, to both.
37
There is one more factor that could hand Trump a victory--that Democratic voters stay home--especially in the west--because they expect a Clinton landslide. That is finally what enabled the Brexit.
33
I tend not to think don't there will be too much of that -- too much is at stake to take any chances.
8
I heard on POTUS channel today that google hits for registering to vote have hit an all time high, especially in blue and bluish swing states.
The pundits assumed it was Democrat led, but one never knows.
At any rate, I think we are going to see record turnout this year.
The pundits assumed it was Democrat led, but one never knows.
At any rate, I think we are going to see record turnout this year.
10
Wishful thinking, Ellen. The Brexit rsult was in large part down to the low-Ed white working class voters buying the ludicrous promises of a charismatic buffoon. Be afraid.
13
Just looking at that map makes this two-party system seem grossly inadequate. Why should states full of people (on either side) have to feel like their needs aren't being addressed by the administration? There are certain ideas which are admittedly unfeasible, but for the most part, a moderate administration could better address all people. It doesn't make sense to me why somebody like that isn't put into office. Are people stuck on this either/or frame of mind that won't let in compromise? Is this some warlike adult echo to the gone days of playing capture the flag? Because it doesn't seem to be working very well.
4
Yes, voters are stuck on either-or issues: abortion, gun control, national security, and the GOP base allows no compromise. Moderates get beaten in primaries, and extremists get beaten in general elections (except in very red states like Arizona).
8
What would benefit the country is if each District for the House of Representatives had its Electoral Vote go for the winner of that District.
[So California's 55 Electoral votes might go 35 - 20 for Democrats instead of
55 - 0, vice versa for largely Republican States. ] The Winner of the Popular Vote for each State would received the two Senatorial Votes.
[It would be interesting if the Upshot could provide such a map for how the
2016 election might turn out if that way of assigning Electoral Votes were applied.]
Then the Electoral Map of the US would not be so stark and we would see
a mixing of Blues/Reds that would better represent how the people voted
but the Smaller States would not be denied their Constitutional Guaranteed
Right to have an Electoral College.
[So California's 55 Electoral votes might go 35 - 20 for Democrats instead of
55 - 0, vice versa for largely Republican States. ] The Winner of the Popular Vote for each State would received the two Senatorial Votes.
[It would be interesting if the Upshot could provide such a map for how the
2016 election might turn out if that way of assigning Electoral Votes were applied.]
Then the Electoral Map of the US would not be so stark and we would see
a mixing of Blues/Reds that would better represent how the people voted
but the Smaller States would not be denied their Constitutional Guaranteed
Right to have an Electoral College.
2
The stability of the Red-Blue political geography since 1992 shows real divisions in the country which are causing political polarization -- not being caused by it.
1
The only thing that would stop the GOP would be a tied to the stake burning. Somewhere in here is a proper diagnosis for the mental illness that possesses them. Somewhere in here the people of the US need to accept the mental illness that permeates a fairly large portion of the nation for only someone with such mental illness would vote for one of the most narcissistic, misogynistic, racist men to ever trample the presidential process...and that is saying a lot compared to some of the men that have preceded Trump. Proper scientific studies, one after the other, speak of this mental illness. We can save the nation by voting out all republicans at all levels of government...right down to the townships. Unfortunately, the dormant cancer that has lurked not so far under the skin of this nation has now gone both deep into the critical organs of the nation’s body and out, onto the surface of our very faces for the entire world to see. Capitalism is killing our democracy. Our government has now become a franchise of the uber wealthy. It won't be long and we will see something like "The US goes better with Coke"...some cute little talking Gecko will be wearing red, white and blue selling the US insurance policies for your car...military patches will include the latest corporate sponsors logo on service personnel's uniforms.
7
Hmmmm,
Rather insulting and condescending comment.
Hillary is for the Poor ?
Gosh, what percent, if any, of the money she made off her
$ 275,000 per speeches to Wall Street did she donate to the poor.
When was the last time you visited Washington D.C. and saw where the Democratic Congressmen live.
How many of them send their kids to DC public Schools and where did
President Obama's children go to school ?
Are the Obama's moving to a nice 3 bedroom Ranch Style house in the
Suburbs after he leaves the White House ?
Bill and Hillary do they live in a modest Condo ?
If you think putting the Democrats or any one party in total charge of all
Political Positions will make this country better you have a very naive view
of human affairs.
It is not a "mental Illness" as much it is people tired of a huge government that taxes and taxes and taxes them and does very little for them save sign Trade Agreements that send their jobs overseas.
Rather insulting and condescending comment.
Hillary is for the Poor ?
Gosh, what percent, if any, of the money she made off her
$ 275,000 per speeches to Wall Street did she donate to the poor.
When was the last time you visited Washington D.C. and saw where the Democratic Congressmen live.
How many of them send their kids to DC public Schools and where did
President Obama's children go to school ?
Are the Obama's moving to a nice 3 bedroom Ranch Style house in the
Suburbs after he leaves the White House ?
Bill and Hillary do they live in a modest Condo ?
If you think putting the Democrats or any one party in total charge of all
Political Positions will make this country better you have a very naive view
of human affairs.
It is not a "mental Illness" as much it is people tired of a huge government that taxes and taxes and taxes them and does very little for them save sign Trade Agreements that send their jobs overseas.
4
Well, I read that the Clintons gave about 10% to charity. That said I have to believe that some of trump's appeal is that he swindled some of those wealthy folks.
5
Typical Trump/republican response...money, things...no people, lack of Human Affairs knowledge. By the by...Hillary came up from the poor if you took the time to read her bio. President Obama and Hillary Clinton both worked hard through school, worked hard in their occupations, to get to where they are. Take you naive understanding of human affairs over to the Kochs and get back to me. Our country is NOT about putting one party in place. It is about the people of the country doing or not doing their part in our political process and keeping politicians in line with the needs of the country.
The criticism of Trump—and Sanders—as demagogues involves at some level recognition of Clinton as a tyrant. Her election requires voters to put aside long-term, underlying discontent with the established order and particular discontent with Clinton as one who puts herself outside or above laws and rules. People often resist change even when they admit their present course is intolerable. So, which force is stronger—courage, or timidity?
4
The best model I've seen that explains nominee Trump's behavior is: Competitive Negotiator, as further explained here.
http://danvillesanramon.com/blogs/p/2016/03/07/deciphering-the-short-fin...
It is particularly important to note that competitors do well in one-off deals, but they don't wear well over time, and have great difficulty changing their stripes -- they lack instinct for it, they risk losing their base, and few observers would believe the transformation anyway.
So it gives me great satisfaction to suggest that he is 'toast.' That said, I'm working the campaign anyway, because we.Have.to.be.SURE.
http://danvillesanramon.com/blogs/p/2016/03/07/deciphering-the-short-fin...
It is particularly important to note that competitors do well in one-off deals, but they don't wear well over time, and have great difficulty changing their stripes -- they lack instinct for it, they risk losing their base, and few observers would believe the transformation anyway.
So it gives me great satisfaction to suggest that he is 'toast.' That said, I'm working the campaign anyway, because we.Have.to.be.SURE.
12
As the article pointed out there are a couple of things that could really hurt Hillary:
Democratic apathy. My state is solidly Democratic, I don't particularly like Hillary, why should I vote?
A blunder by Hillary and or Bill. Both of them have a record of shooting themselves in the foot, and there are a lot of skeletons in their closet. In the past, their enablers have been able to protect them, that may not be possible this time.
"The Economist" has an article on how a landslide victory for Hillary may not be a mandate for her policies. The summary is that much of her landslide will be anti-Trump votes and not an endorsement of her. I agree.
For the last several elections the Republicans have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The question is have they learned anything? If not, I expect a lot of people and money will leave them to form a new conservative party. I would like to see a party that is fiscally conservative and socially moderate.
We may see the Democrats splinter as well. Hillary is probably moving way too far to the center for most progressives. There maybe talk about founding a progressive party. If so, they should learn from the Republicans about what happens when you move to the extremes.
Lastly we need to change how we select our political leadership. This is the worst presidential field I have seen in 40+ years of voting. We need to attract people who are dedicated to service to the nation, not just to themselves.
Democratic apathy. My state is solidly Democratic, I don't particularly like Hillary, why should I vote?
A blunder by Hillary and or Bill. Both of them have a record of shooting themselves in the foot, and there are a lot of skeletons in their closet. In the past, their enablers have been able to protect them, that may not be possible this time.
"The Economist" has an article on how a landslide victory for Hillary may not be a mandate for her policies. The summary is that much of her landslide will be anti-Trump votes and not an endorsement of her. I agree.
For the last several elections the Republicans have managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The question is have they learned anything? If not, I expect a lot of people and money will leave them to form a new conservative party. I would like to see a party that is fiscally conservative and socially moderate.
We may see the Democrats splinter as well. Hillary is probably moving way too far to the center for most progressives. There maybe talk about founding a progressive party. If so, they should learn from the Republicans about what happens when you move to the extremes.
Lastly we need to change how we select our political leadership. This is the worst presidential field I have seen in 40+ years of voting. We need to attract people who are dedicated to service to the nation, not just to themselves.
9
Any field of candidates that includes George W Bush cannot be topped as the worst presidential field. That said, Clinton is a better candidate than Gore.
8
Many political scientists, myself included, do not believe any election constitutes a mandate for future policy initiatives. I tend to follow the late V. O. Key's view (see "The Responsible Electorate") that elections are retrospective evaluations of the Administration in power rather than a choice between competing policy visions.
2
Competent people who would make good leaders have absolutely no interest in climbing into the pigsty and wallowing around with the greedy power hungry pigs in there.
2
Nate's Leaf/Manning analogy works better when you consider the 1998 draft. A lot of people considered the number one pick to be a tossup. Many NFL experts favored Leaf's arm over Manning's. But the Colts, like, hopefully the American people, chose wisely.
2
Enough with the Leaf-Manning NFL parallels!
Analogies generally have glaring weaknesses-- and pro sports ones especially leave out much, if not most, of the audience.
Plus, if you really want to go that route, it'd be as if you put the grade school bully and class clown, who bragged a lot, and had little or no athletic talent, in at quarterback. People would figure the owners had gone nuts (Republican elites), some in the organization would try to rationalize the choice (Ryan, McConnell, Priebus, etc), and some of the team's fans would still cheer out of blind, foolish loyalty-- or, because they enjoyed the spectacle of seeing the bully as QB sticking it to the man, and love hearing the trash-talking rants of the ignorant, orange-haired loud mouth.
Or, perhaps, the analogy would be hiring the clown as principal, expecting him to run the school, manage the budget, encourage the support staff, and create a positive learning climate. It wouldn't work and, if it weren't such a threat to everyone's well being, would be widely seen a joke!
See?! Analogies just don't work!
Analogies generally have glaring weaknesses-- and pro sports ones especially leave out much, if not most, of the audience.
Plus, if you really want to go that route, it'd be as if you put the grade school bully and class clown, who bragged a lot, and had little or no athletic talent, in at quarterback. People would figure the owners had gone nuts (Republican elites), some in the organization would try to rationalize the choice (Ryan, McConnell, Priebus, etc), and some of the team's fans would still cheer out of blind, foolish loyalty-- or, because they enjoyed the spectacle of seeing the bully as QB sticking it to the man, and love hearing the trash-talking rants of the ignorant, orange-haired loud mouth.
Or, perhaps, the analogy would be hiring the clown as principal, expecting him to run the school, manage the budget, encourage the support staff, and create a positive learning climate. It wouldn't work and, if it weren't such a threat to everyone's well being, would be widely seen a joke!
See?! Analogies just don't work!
2
Since the latest Times poll gives Trump a 13% probability of winning, then, of course, Trump could still win. However,
Early Voting Leaves Trump With Less Time to Catch Up
By PATRICK HEALY
Donald J. Trump’s advisers say he has nearly three months to counter Hillary Clinton’s vast operation in swing states.
Given that Trump doesn't seem to value his own advisers' opinions and has declared himself literally to be the God-selected savior of the nation, I suppose that statistics are not reliable indicator of anything.
After all, Jesus didn't take advice from His disciples.
So why would Trump take advice from His (Trump's) advisers?
Early Voting Leaves Trump With Less Time to Catch Up
By PATRICK HEALY
Donald J. Trump’s advisers say he has nearly three months to counter Hillary Clinton’s vast operation in swing states.
Given that Trump doesn't seem to value his own advisers' opinions and has declared himself literally to be the God-selected savior of the nation, I suppose that statistics are not reliable indicator of anything.
After all, Jesus didn't take advice from His disciples.
So why would Trump take advice from His (Trump's) advisers?
8
Never underestimate the ability of diehard purist liberals to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. There are some out there who will march in and vote for the so called "Green Party" because they demand 100 percent instead of 90! They can turn the Supreme Court and the EPA over to Donald Trump who will "rip up" the Paris Agreement and mine more coal, and thereby gleefully inflict incalculable damage on this planet. That'll show us all. They did it in Florida in 2000. The Nader cranks actually gave us W over Gore!!!
Oh, the irony!
Green = Orange (Trump).
Oh, the irony!
Green = Orange (Trump).
35
Re: "There are some out there who will march in and vote for the so called 'Green Party' because they demand 100 percent instead of 90!"
One hundred percent instead of ninety? That's not exactly how I'd characterize it. It would be strange thing to go from Bernie Sanders, who in terms of experience is one hundred percent qualified to be president, to Green Party nominee Jill Stein, who in terms of experience is is about one-tenth of percent qualified. Sanders was elected to the United States Senate twice, to the the United States House if Representatives eight times, and elected mayor of Burlington, Vermont twice. Jill Stein was twice elected as a "Town of Lexington Town Meeting Representative", and that's it. Lexington, Massachusetts has a population of 31,394, and there are about two hundred Town Meeting Representatives at any given time, which gives Stein a constituency of 157 persons (rounded upward). If she becomes President, she'll jump abruptly to a constituency of 319 million persons.
One hundred percent instead of ninety? That's not exactly how I'd characterize it. It would be strange thing to go from Bernie Sanders, who in terms of experience is one hundred percent qualified to be president, to Green Party nominee Jill Stein, who in terms of experience is is about one-tenth of percent qualified. Sanders was elected to the United States Senate twice, to the the United States House if Representatives eight times, and elected mayor of Burlington, Vermont twice. Jill Stein was twice elected as a "Town of Lexington Town Meeting Representative", and that's it. Lexington, Massachusetts has a population of 31,394, and there are about two hundred Town Meeting Representatives at any given time, which gives Stein a constituency of 157 persons (rounded upward). If she becomes President, she'll jump abruptly to a constituency of 319 million persons.
5
Wow, "so called Green Party"...how insulting, really? How very un American of you. The Green Party is the only remaining meaningful party and they are clearly not taking big $ and clearly not in bed w/ the establishment politicians who have done nothing, on either side of the aisle, to help the American people in a meaningful way. Stop bullying to force people into lock step w/ The Party, this is the USA not Communist China where The Party elites dictate to all the people. And your insulting remark of "Nader Cranks".....wow, don't blame W. on Nader running, blame Florida state corruption which btw was controlled by his brother Jeb Bush....enough of blaming Ralph Nader....who you probably owe your life to for all the work he has done for public safety. This is the sort of snarky attitude which is hurting the former Democratic party which is now GOP Lite and controlled by the Clintons, and driving people away from their flawed , untrusted & unlikeable candidate Hillary Clinton.
1
Is It Fair to Psychoanalyze Donald Trump From Afar?
The American Psychiatric Association says such an assessment would be unethical. But many in the profession are doing so anyway.
By Benedict Carey
First, fair doesn't even enter into it. The "many in the profession" can do whatever they like. The APA is not a police force.
Second, even though I understand why advocates for the mentally ill don't want us to call Trump "crazy" (and I'm sure Donnie's mother had him tested), Mr. Trump has literally presented himself as the one and only savior of the nation, a sort of Jesus 2.0.
And for those of us who do not believe that God dirties His hands by selecting our president, Donald Trump does seem to be quite literally "crazy" (by a layperson's definition) without even going into the pros and cons of his ideology.
The American Psychiatric Association says such an assessment would be unethical. But many in the profession are doing so anyway.
By Benedict Carey
First, fair doesn't even enter into it. The "many in the profession" can do whatever they like. The APA is not a police force.
Second, even though I understand why advocates for the mentally ill don't want us to call Trump "crazy" (and I'm sure Donnie's mother had him tested), Mr. Trump has literally presented himself as the one and only savior of the nation, a sort of Jesus 2.0.
And for those of us who do not believe that God dirties His hands by selecting our president, Donald Trump does seem to be quite literally "crazy" (by a layperson's definition) without even going into the pros and cons of his ideology.
12
As the Yogi said, "It ain't over 'till it's over." I would add two more possible "game changers":
Democratic complacency - there are many Democrats who are not enthusiastic about Hillary, but would turn out to vote against the Donald. If they think that their vote is not needed, they may stay home or vote third party. Ask President Gore how that one turned out!
Republican intimidation - the recent statements from the Donald about "Second Amendment rights" and "observing to be sure the election isn't rigged" may be read as calls for his supporters (especially in open carry states) to head en masse to the polling places in minority areas with the intent to intimidate voters. It has happened before.
Democratic complacency - there are many Democrats who are not enthusiastic about Hillary, but would turn out to vote against the Donald. If they think that their vote is not needed, they may stay home or vote third party. Ask President Gore how that one turned out!
Republican intimidation - the recent statements from the Donald about "Second Amendment rights" and "observing to be sure the election isn't rigged" may be read as calls for his supporters (especially in open carry states) to head en masse to the polling places in minority areas with the intent to intimidate voters. It has happened before.
72
The first scenario is possible, although I have not encountered complacency among the many people with whom I have discussed this election.
The suggestion the "Second Amendment People" will take overt action on election day is a frightening thought, and one that should be guarded against.
The suggestion the "Second Amendment People" will take overt action on election day is a frightening thought, and one that should be guarded against.
12
The qualities that made Trump unstoppable in the primaries are the same ones that will render him unelectable in the general election. Ever since Bush Sr., GOP presidential candidates have been forced to run a gauntlet of primaries dominated by their most extreme partisans while just preserving enough establishment credibility to allow a pivot to mainstream voters in the fall. The difficulty of plausibly maintaining such a balancing act was manifestly apparent in the stiff and rehearsed manner of all of the candidates this year, save for Trump.
The primary voters loved it, and he fed off their adulation. But this wasn't a strategic decision. Trump is incapable of thinking strategically. And what came off as blunt candor then looks more like childish petulance and recklessness to the moderate and independent voter that any Republican candidate must court in order to win.
I realize that it's not over until it's over. But it's hard to shake the feeling that Trump has hit the ceiling of his support.
The primary voters loved it, and he fed off their adulation. But this wasn't a strategic decision. Trump is incapable of thinking strategically. And what came off as blunt candor then looks more like childish petulance and recklessness to the moderate and independent voter that any Republican candidate must court in order to win.
I realize that it's not over until it's over. But it's hard to shake the feeling that Trump has hit the ceiling of his support.
30
The Republicans have made a deal with the devil. They loved Trump as a birther. The Conservative Republican wing loves the Trump Tea Party supporters - they have won election after election for the them even though the party would not lift a finger to help all those poor, underemployed whites. Now that Trump has taken over the party they can't stand it any more. Unfortunately, there is no out. If they dump Trump or campaign against him, the Tea Party stays home and the party sinks like the Titanic. A wave election does not begin to describe what will happen. If they stay with Trump, all the moderates abandon the party and the party sinks more slowly like the SS Andrea Doria. Either way, good bye to the most hypocritical, devious party in the last century. Oh, bye the way, there is an excellent hang over medicine - it is called honesty!
51
It sure is interesting. The map reveals another political reality; it shows the political divide in this nation. It looks like the only big population state that the GOP has is Texas. It's a split in values. The next president, whoever he or she is, would do well to take this map to heart.
It's why progressivism is hard to accomplish as is conservatism.
It's why progressivism is hard to accomplish as is conservatism.
8
> Republicans can come back into the fold, over issues like choosing Supreme Court justices.
This seems to be the hole card that people pull out when justifying Trump. "He may be a nut, racist, narcissist, etc, but we need him to pick Supreme Court justices."
What makes anyone think that his court nominations will be any less looney and unthought than anything else he's done or said in the last year?
This seems to be the hole card that people pull out when justifying Trump. "He may be a nut, racist, narcissist, etc, but we need him to pick Supreme Court justices."
What makes anyone think that his court nominations will be any less looney and unthought than anything else he's done or said in the last year?
93
It seems to be the "At least I didn't vote for Hillary" mentality. There is certainly a segment of the population that is so anti-Hillary, that they'd vote for literally any Republican candidate no matter how racist, narcissistic, tyrannical, or crazy.
2
The Manning/Leaf football analogy didn't work because
a) some people don't like or pay attention to football,
b) most people have forgotten who Ryan Leaf is,
and
c) the article started with a reference to a 20-yard field goal, and then proceeded to talk about two quarterbacks (who do not kick field goals). I think the writer of the article might have been as confused as the readers.
a) some people don't like or pay attention to football,
b) most people have forgotten who Ryan Leaf is,
and
c) the article started with a reference to a 20-yard field goal, and then proceeded to talk about two quarterbacks (who do not kick field goals). I think the writer of the article might have been as confused as the readers.
18
*I* certainly didn't get the analogy. Leaf is an interesting name though.
2
First of all. Donald Trump will NEVER change his approach. Why?? -- Because he has said so. Besides, he probably couldn't even do it if he wanted to.
It's pathological. The man is simply incapable of keeping his foot out of his mouth.
It's pathological. The man is simply incapable of keeping his foot out of his mouth.
37
Trump does not listen to his hired hands and therefore cannot change from his unfocused, blustery presence.
12
Sorry, but I have to take issue with the portrayal of John Kasich. Take a look at his very conservative record as governor of Ohio, and the very "generic Republican" bills he supported and ultimately signed into law. He got a "pass" on this from the media (except for a very few) during the entire primary season because he refused to get down in the mud but he is no moderate. Just not a "generic Republican" in the sense of not spewing the usual GOP fear/hate rhetoric.
81
Exactly. Kasich is no "moderate," he just didn't call people names and compare hand sizes and so by comparison he looked basically acceptable. He's got an awful record in the reproductive rights realm. It's interesting isn't it? In a year where the odds are likely that we will have our first female president, Kasich, probably one of the more anti-woman politicians in the field this year, tended to get a pass from the media.
6
NMT: Yes, and another thing: The REASON Kasich didn't run as a "generic Republican" is because he felt he needed to distinguish himself in a crowded field of generic Republicans. So this idea that if only he'd run as a generic Republican he could have won the nomination is nonsense. Also: the media kept calling Kasich moderate (and Rubio too, which is equally ridiculous) because they needed moderates to make the race look more interesting. Since there actually were no Republicans running, they simply invented a few.
3
Many people equate Clinton's negatives to Trumps negatives - however it is a false equivalency. Clinton has been the object of propaganda campaigns from Republican congressional committee investigations for decades. They were exonerated on Whitewater and Hillary on Benghazi. The email scandal was a dumb mistak but not an indictable offense (although enough for a stern rebuke) but again, essentially an exoneration.
No doubt the conspiracy theorists will continue believing what they will, but Clinton's negatives somehow persist way beyond what is deserved. On the other hand the only one responsible for Trump's negatives is Trump himself. In fact the reason he has gotten this far is because of many millions of dollars worth of free, mostly non-negative media exposure. At this point though, his outrageous comments are catching up to him. Even a celebrity can only go so far before inciting violence and insulting pretty much everyone turns against you. As to who is the bigger liar consider Politifact - hardly a bastion of liberal thinking - here's the actual data: around 70% of everything Trump says in on the lying/false side of the scale. Clinton - 27% on the "lying/false side". One of those two is NOT dealing with reality but still Clinton's negatives remain within 10 points of Trump's. If people start understanding which candidate is dealing with facts their negatives will become more in line with Politifact's numbers.
No doubt the conspiracy theorists will continue believing what they will, but Clinton's negatives somehow persist way beyond what is deserved. On the other hand the only one responsible for Trump's negatives is Trump himself. In fact the reason he has gotten this far is because of many millions of dollars worth of free, mostly non-negative media exposure. At this point though, his outrageous comments are catching up to him. Even a celebrity can only go so far before inciting violence and insulting pretty much everyone turns against you. As to who is the bigger liar consider Politifact - hardly a bastion of liberal thinking - here's the actual data: around 70% of everything Trump says in on the lying/false side of the scale. Clinton - 27% on the "lying/false side". One of those two is NOT dealing with reality but still Clinton's negatives remain within 10 points of Trump's. If people start understanding which candidate is dealing with facts their negatives will become more in line with Politifact's numbers.
126
She's withstood the assaults as well as Barry Bonds, who for all the accusations never looked as pumped up as McGwire or Sosa
27% still seems quite high to me re honesty. Neither candidate is honest or worthy of being our President. Both are bad choices. We need to accept that and not pretend otherwise. Neither one will give us the positive outcome we seek as a nation.
2
Another important fact is that Trump's negatives emanate from within his own Party. Less so with Clinton
1
There have always existed two possibilities in explaining Donald Trump's behavior: 1) that he is serious about his candidacy and actually is serious about wanting to run the country, or 2) he is a clown, nothing but a clown, who through pure buffoonery brought down a party, The Republican Party, without spending more than a small-town mayor, with insults, slurs, and sensationalism. He doesn't care about anything, certainly, except his family and his real estate holdings.
But truly, the man is a heartless, orange-faced narcissist who incites violence. I hope after the election he is taken to task by the government for his actions.
But truly, the man is a heartless, orange-faced narcissist who incites violence. I hope after the election he is taken to task by the government for his actions.
105
The big question is why would Trump want to destroy the GOP? He has been a Democrat most of his life, but people do change their party affiliations. Personally I think the Clintons approached him with their scheme and it has worked brilliantly! Trump is no idiot or a monster and the Q remains why is he doing this? I would like to know the real nature of Bill Clinton's outreach & discussions in early 2015 w/ Trump that was reported by Newsweek....why has this not been covered by the Press? Seems major to me. To vilify Trump and reduce his to a cartoon figure is wrong thinking, just follow the money/promises, follow the Clinton scheme and that will answer the big Q of why is Trump doing this. I think the American people have bought this propaganda storyline hook, line & sinker. Prove to me that the Clintons are not in collusion with Trump on this scheme to get Hillary into our Whitehouse. Where is the NYTimes on this reporting hmmmm?
1
Sandra Garratt - Trump has been an idiot and a jerk his entire life. I don't think he's ever been interested in politics, this campaign is just his newest con.
I think the big risk, now, is that Trump/Manafort have worked a deal (w/ Russia) to shake things up at the last minute. You have to wonder what the Trump campaign is expecting in return for all the brown-nosing they've been giving Putin.
102
Well, Manafort has gotten $12+ million out of it.
3
Dammit Paul!! Now I'm not gonna be able to sleep tonight. Probably not well until November 9th.
3
If Russia is indeed in possession of Hillary's 32,0000 deleted emails and the Clinton Foundation is as dubious as it seems then the big risk might be a deal with Hillary leveraged by Putin.
1
Did Trump win the primary season because of his tough guy, politically incorrect style or because the rest of the field was so weak?
18
Trump won the primary because the rabid core of the GOP focused on one candidate, Trump, while the remaining voters (sorry can't call many of them 'moderates') split their vote among the other fifteen. This is why we don't (really) have a third candidate - the risk of Trump winning with only 34% of the vote scared the heck out of any serious contenders - causing them, wisely, to sit on the sidelines.
29
I think you already answered both your questions!
8
He won it because of fear. Many people don't know how to deal with fear, so you incite it, then offer them the way to get out of it, and they're happy to follow. It's the same reason that religion works with people -- because they fear the threat of punishment, Hell, etc. -- and then want to know the way to avoid those things.
It's alarming how similar Trump seems to the Bible. Just replace "kill" with "smite" and you could say that the man actually thinks he's God.
It's alarming how similar Trump seems to the Bible. Just replace "kill" with "smite" and you could say that the man actually thinks he's God.
1