Its not whether Trump needs the Hispanic vote but how the GOP can't put out a message that attracts hard working law abiding immigrant constituents. This failure to attract, let's not talk about repel, the demographic reality transforming our nation is an existencial threat to the Republican party.
1
We can only assume some Hispanic people are good people. I have travelled through Latin America from Guatemala to southern Chile and more than just some were good people. Nuclear butDon Trump does not deserve the vote of even one Spanish speaking American. For him to call anyone crooked is a bald faced projection given his bankruptcies and phoney university.
3
Exactly what constitutes Hispanic. My father was half Mexican and half white American in 1922. There is a huge amount of dilution and many without the surname can associate very closely with Hispanic culture. How anyone be determined to be singular culture in America mystifies me. I would be curious how these statistics are calculated. Someone marking off a checkbox???
5
That is a great question that doesn’t have a single answer. It is intertwined with the immigrant experience in America, including the speed of acculturation and assimilation into American culture. It is unique to each family and individual. It is partly a self-definition – how closely a person self-identifies with the country of his/her roots. And it is partly based on how “everyone else” views a person, based on language, accent, dress, family customs, appearance, etc. That changes over time with subsequent generations.
And it is not limited to Hispanics/Latinos. For example, I am a third generation mix of Lebanese, Irish and Spanish. But I have no meaningful connection to those cultures. My parents (second generation), came from different roots (that weren’t strong) and I was raised as a "generic suburban American kid." So I do not consider myself Irish-American, Lebanese-American, or Spanish American.
However, I look “Irish,” and have an Irish sounding last name, so often people will peg me as “Irish.” So am I “Irish-American?” I don’t feel Irish in any meaningful sense, but sometimes others look at me that way...
On the other hand, I know some people who are 3rd and 4th generation, 100% Irish-American who grew up in Irish neighborhoods in Brooklyn and still have a strong Irish identity, and who would consider themselves as Irish-American as someone who just arrived from the old sod.
And it is not limited to Hispanics/Latinos. For example, I am a third generation mix of Lebanese, Irish and Spanish. But I have no meaningful connection to those cultures. My parents (second generation), came from different roots (that weren’t strong) and I was raised as a "generic suburban American kid." So I do not consider myself Irish-American, Lebanese-American, or Spanish American.
However, I look “Irish,” and have an Irish sounding last name, so often people will peg me as “Irish.” So am I “Irish-American?” I don’t feel Irish in any meaningful sense, but sometimes others look at me that way...
On the other hand, I know some people who are 3rd and 4th generation, 100% Irish-American who grew up in Irish neighborhoods in Brooklyn and still have a strong Irish identity, and who would consider themselves as Irish-American as someone who just arrived from the old sod.
1
As someone who legally immigrated from Central America, I always found that the grouping of the Hispanic or Latino vote is like grouping Americans with Australians and British because of a common language. To me, most Cubans tend to be Republican and anti-socialist, hence Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. My theory is that they haven't gotten over Castro and will always vote against the candidate who proposes socialist type reforms. In Florida, this Cuban block which is the largest will most likely vote Republican.
However, Puerto Rico has been suffering economic woes and a number of Puerto Ricans have been migrating to the mainland http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/12/us/politics/puerto-rican-voters.html and they seem to favor Hillary. Hillary beat out Sanders by a great margin in Puerto Rico. Next to New York, Florida is the most popular destination for Puerto Ricans and they are one of the largest Hispanic or Latino groups in this country. To me, this is the group that will swing Florida to Hillary along with the third largest group the Mexicans. Thanks be to Trump for disparaging the poor Mexican peasants who cross the border.
However, Puerto Rico has been suffering economic woes and a number of Puerto Ricans have been migrating to the mainland http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/12/us/politics/puerto-rican-voters.html and they seem to favor Hillary. Hillary beat out Sanders by a great margin in Puerto Rico. Next to New York, Florida is the most popular destination for Puerto Ricans and they are one of the largest Hispanic or Latino groups in this country. To me, this is the group that will swing Florida to Hillary along with the third largest group the Mexicans. Thanks be to Trump for disparaging the poor Mexican peasants who cross the border.
5
-----
Nate, a request. Please profile for us the *typical* Trump voter. It's now standard to think of him as a white, high school, working class male.
We (meaning analysts and even the Dems) may be making a big mistake.
During the primaries, the meme was that Sanders' supporters were millennials. Any moment's thought, however, quickly showed that couldn't have been true!
Just because most millennials supported Sanders did NOT mean that most Sanders supporters were millennials. (There simply weren't enough "youngsters" to produce his vote totals.) Similarly, just because most black voters favored Hillary did NOT mean that most of Hillary's voters were black.
As to Trump, there simply aren't enough white, working-class, high school only white men to get him to 40% of the electorate.
So, please provide a reverse of the usual presentation -- not what % of high school educated voters favor Trump, or what % of white men support Trump over Clinton, but what % of Trump's voters are women, what % are college educated, what % have voted Democratic, etc.
Trump may be way behind in particular demographics, but I'll wager the bulk of his support comes from the very voting groups that Hillary is ahead on. What that means is that there are large swaths of Trump's backers who are women, college educated, libertarian, left millennials, professionals, traditional Republicans, etc. who are reachable!
-----
Nate, a request. Please profile for us the *typical* Trump voter. It's now standard to think of him as a white, high school, working class male.
We (meaning analysts and even the Dems) may be making a big mistake.
During the primaries, the meme was that Sanders' supporters were millennials. Any moment's thought, however, quickly showed that couldn't have been true!
Just because most millennials supported Sanders did NOT mean that most Sanders supporters were millennials. (There simply weren't enough "youngsters" to produce his vote totals.) Similarly, just because most black voters favored Hillary did NOT mean that most of Hillary's voters were black.
As to Trump, there simply aren't enough white, working-class, high school only white men to get him to 40% of the electorate.
So, please provide a reverse of the usual presentation -- not what % of high school educated voters favor Trump, or what % of white men support Trump over Clinton, but what % of Trump's voters are women, what % are college educated, what % have voted Democratic, etc.
Trump may be way behind in particular demographics, but I'll wager the bulk of his support comes from the very voting groups that Hillary is ahead on. What that means is that there are large swaths of Trump's backers who are women, college educated, libertarian, left millennials, professionals, traditional Republicans, etc. who are reachable!
-----
5
The amazing thing about the Obama Campaign in 2008 and 2012 is it turned out the black vote.
Black vote turnout in 2012 was over 80% and exceeded white participation for the first time EVER.
Tim Kaine is fluent in Spanish. And combined with Donald Trump's nastiness to Hispanic immigrants will now lead to record Hispanic voter turnout .
It will also exceed white voter participation because Hispanics are motivated due to passionate Trump-hate.
Tim Kaine will bring Swing States of Virginia, Florida, New Mexico, and Colorado which will seal a very strong Democratic victory.
And as a Southern Governor, Kaine will have strong influence in North Carolina and Georgia which would make it an historic landslide.
2008 was the election that brought out blacks.
2016 will be the election that brings out Hispanics.
And that will be 2016 Democratic Landslide.
Black vote turnout in 2012 was over 80% and exceeded white participation for the first time EVER.
Tim Kaine is fluent in Spanish. And combined with Donald Trump's nastiness to Hispanic immigrants will now lead to record Hispanic voter turnout .
It will also exceed white voter participation because Hispanics are motivated due to passionate Trump-hate.
Tim Kaine will bring Swing States of Virginia, Florida, New Mexico, and Colorado which will seal a very strong Democratic victory.
And as a Southern Governor, Kaine will have strong influence in North Carolina and Georgia which would make it an historic landslide.
2008 was the election that brought out blacks.
2016 will be the election that brings out Hispanics.
And that will be 2016 Democratic Landslide.
3
Zica. Florida has had a series of third rate governors, but you now have them begging for Zica help with echos from Hillary and Obama. Where is Congress? Congress is taking a break. Congress does this a lot.
Eventually the Greenland Ice will melt and the affected area will be under salt water. End of problem. End of population, too.
Meanwhile we watch and wait.
Eventually the Greenland Ice will melt and the affected area will be under salt water. End of problem. End of population, too.
Meanwhile we watch and wait.
2
My 11 year old cat has a better chance to be POTUS than Drumpf. My cat may have Latino roots, he does meow with a noticeable accent which I have not yet made out, but I'm not really sure. Nonetheless he would beat Drumpf with two paws tied to his belly.
I may be silly in my estimation. Just what are your professional excuses for deliberating about the impossible? A Drumpf victory.
I may be silly in my estimation. Just what are your professional excuses for deliberating about the impossible? A Drumpf victory.
6
Jack you are right! Trump was never a serious candidate. He was put up to running to Bill, as Hillary'e unacceptable foil. He never misses an opportunity to alienate one or another group of voters - from women to Mexicans, to Republicans. He calls Hillary 'crooked' but doesn't substantiate the epithet, as he would if he were serious. I'll bet no-one is more surprised at the number of votes he's gotten than Drumph himself. And there is a point to the whole charade. Can you imagine how popular ( and well paid) his next foray into TV will be?
Hillary is falling of her own weight. It's not just the lies. There's just a fatigue factor settling in. Many simply will sit this one out. Blacks and Hispanics don't like her. Progressive Democrats see through her. All that can be said is that she's not Trump, but there's also a lot not to like about Hillary herself. Then there's Bill. The two of them together are not all that inspiring. I would even say there's a certain ick-factor about them that cannot be hidden. It's not a pretty sight. Do we have to settle for them? Is that the best we can do?
5
Wow. You must be lonely in Hawaii with that attitude.
Scroll down to- Who will be president? Do you think ACORN is going to steal 5 million votes?- Again?
Scroll down to- Who will be president? Do you think ACORN is going to steal 5 million votes?- Again?
4
Very interesting to see all the comments essentially saying that Latino (or "Minority") votes don't really count.
This at least, this goes to explain why/how a racially divisive candidate, such as Donald Trump, could get as far as he has gotten in the Presidential campaign.
This at least, this goes to explain why/how a racially divisive candidate, such as Donald Trump, could get as far as he has gotten in the Presidential campaign.
4
This national map in the article looks eerily similar to the 2000 Gore-Bush election map. Let's hope it doesn't again come down to Florida to determine the winner of Hillary-Trump.
2
In the article, the accompanying photo is of Elvis holding a voting sign. What!?!?
Hispanics are roughly 13% of the population so I think you're underestimating their voting power. A hurdle may be getting more registered.
2
Trump's strategy has been to incite as much white racial animus necessary to get them out to vote. That strategy is to employ cable-network cameras to beam the Hitlerian application for magnification of rallies. American media in quest to make money are complicit with Trump selling out this Republic.
1
The entire genus of idea that Trump has somehow garnered a new white electorate that will turn out in November is specious. It is nothing more than the Sarah Palin and Cliven Bundy crowd redux, not able to tell the difference between the symbol and the thing itself. Thinking that bumper slogans demonstrate actual power. Too full of resentment to go to the polls in anything near sufficient numbers.
8
Florida has been a tipping point state. They observe that the voter preferences of the various non-hispanic voting groups have been stable over time, which has meant that the proportional shrinking of the older white population and the proportional growth of the hispanic population + its preference away from the GOP was important to the shift of the state into the Dem column. They make a valid point: if the voting preferences of the rest of Florida's population shift, the hispanic vote cannot offset a shift since it is small and already strongly Dem.
They are arithmetically correct that shifting the GOP share of the working class population materially above 70% would mute the proportional growth of the hispanic population. They say this is possible with a better candidate than Trump. Who cares?
My observations: a) the predominant white working class voter in Florida is a rural "cracker" who has been voting GOP since the southern strategy, b) once you know that Trump's supporters have voted before, one assumes they voted GOP, c) further growth here means switching people who voted for Obama and calls to racism are unlikely to do the trick.
The "better" GOP candidate who could win them with something other than a call to racism either doesn't exist, or was Rubio, who lost the Florida primary. (I think that Rubio was a demographically correct, crummy candidate who folds under pressure.)
They are arithmetically correct that shifting the GOP share of the working class population materially above 70% would mute the proportional growth of the hispanic population. They say this is possible with a better candidate than Trump. Who cares?
My observations: a) the predominant white working class voter in Florida is a rural "cracker" who has been voting GOP since the southern strategy, b) once you know that Trump's supporters have voted before, one assumes they voted GOP, c) further growth here means switching people who voted for Obama and calls to racism are unlikely to do the trick.
The "better" GOP candidate who could win them with something other than a call to racism either doesn't exist, or was Rubio, who lost the Florida primary. (I think that Rubio was a demographically correct, crummy candidate who folds under pressure.)
1
The Donald needs every single vote he can get, purple, pink, or green. I think he's gonna be disappointed. Too bad, so sad.
2
All points tow hat we knew all along. Sanders would have been a much stronger candidate against Trump than Clinton. His class-based politics would have broken through this demographic talk and brought working people (even white ones!!) into the fold.
I wonder sometimes whether all the prognosticators' obsession with ethnicity, gender, race, and the like isn't due to the ease of getting statistics, whereas ideas and ideologies are harder to tabulate.
I wonder sometimes whether all the prognosticators' obsession with ethnicity, gender, race, and the like isn't due to the ease of getting statistics, whereas ideas and ideologies are harder to tabulate.
3
It is conjecture at best to believe that Trump’s “working class” demographic would have moved to Sanders simply because of the power of his message. IMO Trump’s working class supporters likely do not believe what Trump or any other politician is promising, but rather are just enjoying it when Trump irritates people they don’t like. And college educated liberal politicians, like Sanders (and Clinton), who have been telling them what's best for them their whole lives, probably top that list.
If the working class were exclusively focused on their own economic interests, they would always vote Democrat and not Republican. Regardless of their stances on social and other issues.
If the working class were exclusively focused on their own economic interests, they would always vote Democrat and not Republican. Regardless of their stances on social and other issues.
5
Hispanic, Latino, what are these seudo classifications? As long as there is this endless diatribe of false perceptions there will be little real progress in any direction.
Latino is a made up concept that has little or no real meaning. Hispanic is somewhat better as it groups a very heterogenous group of people by the simple fact that our origin (or part of it is from a Spanish speaking region-and, most important- if your last name has the same origin) is as diverse as the United States. There are white (the vast majority), black, middle eastern, oriental, black, pre-Columbian immigrants, etc. etc. Thus, talking about the Hispanic vote as some form of different race is absolute ignorance (that most seem to be very happy to dance around.
most Hispanics are 'white", and like most other US citizens from all origins, by the time there is a first and second generation we are totally blended or assimilated as part of the cultural landscape.
So, while there are some active "hispanics" in all political parties and activities, counting on us as a block is a fantasy.
Now, the day that we (Mexican-Americans) get our mojo and our act together, then as a cohesive group, we will be a power to be retconned with. By all parties
in the meantime, stop pretending to deal with something that doesn't exist. There is no Hispanic vote.
sorry to burst your bubble
Latino is a made up concept that has little or no real meaning. Hispanic is somewhat better as it groups a very heterogenous group of people by the simple fact that our origin (or part of it is from a Spanish speaking region-and, most important- if your last name has the same origin) is as diverse as the United States. There are white (the vast majority), black, middle eastern, oriental, black, pre-Columbian immigrants, etc. etc. Thus, talking about the Hispanic vote as some form of different race is absolute ignorance (that most seem to be very happy to dance around.
most Hispanics are 'white", and like most other US citizens from all origins, by the time there is a first and second generation we are totally blended or assimilated as part of the cultural landscape.
So, while there are some active "hispanics" in all political parties and activities, counting on us as a block is a fantasy.
Now, the day that we (Mexican-Americans) get our mojo and our act together, then as a cohesive group, we will be a power to be retconned with. By all parties
in the meantime, stop pretending to deal with something that doesn't exist. There is no Hispanic vote.
sorry to burst your bubble
6
When we are south of the border we call ouselves latinos, so it is no crazy that this term would be used in English, especially if half of the American hispanic/latino population was born outside of the US.
1
NB: or better yet a "shared ethnic/cultural/language identity"
Colonel: The concepts “Latino” and “Hispanic” are indeed ambiguous, and due to the diversity you have noted are not completely accurate however they are cast. (I tend to think of the terms as capturing a shared ethnic identity.) But what is at issue/being discussed is the Latino/Hispanic vote in the United States. At least at the national level, it is an identifiable voting bloc that shares common interests, and that politicians appeal to for votes.
1
“Nate: …But even big shifts among 15 percent of the electorate can be swamped by little shifts among the remaining 85 percent. It’s just math.”
The underlying problem with Nate’s reasoning is that there are not going to be “big shifts” in the Latino vote. Based on his continuous and incendiary remarks, Trump polling numbers are in the tank with Latinos. That will not change before November 8, Trump himself has assured that.
So as I see it, Clinton starts with that 15% Latino vote in her back pocket. Trump therefore has to do 15 points better than her among the remaining 85%.
That is, he has to take 50 points or more out of the remaining 85, and Clinton has to do worse than 35. That 50-35 “shift” among non-Latinos is not a “little shift,” it is a monumental shift.
And, in fact, Latinos registration is high due to the existential threat perceived by a Trump Presidency. Just ask John McCain, who admits to be facing the toughest campaign of his life in “reliably” red Arizona, due to the Latino vote. And which Clinton has deemed “in play” in the Presidential race.
Another final rebuttal point worth making: Romney’s “self-deportation” comments turned Latinos away from the Republican Party in 2012 in record numbers (and were largely attributed to providing Obama with his relatively comfortable re-election). Trump’s comments regarding Latinos are far more hostile than Romney’s ever were, and Latino voting power has only grown over the past 4 years.
The underlying problem with Nate’s reasoning is that there are not going to be “big shifts” in the Latino vote. Based on his continuous and incendiary remarks, Trump polling numbers are in the tank with Latinos. That will not change before November 8, Trump himself has assured that.
So as I see it, Clinton starts with that 15% Latino vote in her back pocket. Trump therefore has to do 15 points better than her among the remaining 85%.
That is, he has to take 50 points or more out of the remaining 85, and Clinton has to do worse than 35. That 50-35 “shift” among non-Latinos is not a “little shift,” it is a monumental shift.
And, in fact, Latinos registration is high due to the existential threat perceived by a Trump Presidency. Just ask John McCain, who admits to be facing the toughest campaign of his life in “reliably” red Arizona, due to the Latino vote. And which Clinton has deemed “in play” in the Presidential race.
Another final rebuttal point worth making: Romney’s “self-deportation” comments turned Latinos away from the Republican Party in 2012 in record numbers (and were largely attributed to providing Obama with his relatively comfortable re-election). Trump’s comments regarding Latinos are far more hostile than Romney’s ever were, and Latino voting power has only grown over the past 4 years.
8
Our maid told my wife she would vote for Hillary, but all her friends are for Trump. At the beauty salon, most Hispanics were for Trump. So Latinos, hence Nevada could go his way. Retired white men are all for Trump. Mormons are a large segment of voters here and if they, like the ones in Utah, vote for Hillary she will do well. We also have a large Asian population that is likely to vote for Hillary.
All of the above make Nevada unpredictable and a toss up.
All of the above make Nevada unpredictable and a toss up.
1
If minority voters don't matter for republicans, why are they trying to suppress minorities from voting at every opportunity?
19
Because "Minority" voters by and large vote for Democrats, that's why.
1
Get an ID!
They do matter to the Republicans. They don't like minorities but they fear them because the minority vote is large. That's why they are always trying to redistrict and make it harder for them to vote. The Republicans claim they aren't racist, but they make no real move to appeal to minority voters.
3
Does anyone else get the feeling Nate Cohn really enjoys being a drag?
3
"Does Donald Trump Need the Hispanic Vote: Not as much as you might think"
All eyes are on the upcoming Presidential election and no segment of the voting population is escaping the notice of both parties. Both Clinton's and Trump's campaigns are diligently working to attract voters from these different groups. This article attempts to measure the importance of the Hispanic vote. Monkovic suggests that Trump's alienation of the Hispanic vote by policies such as building a wall, may serve as a firewall for Clinton, helping her campaign to secure the Latino vote in pivotal states such as Florida. I think that although it cannot be denied that Clinton is doing better in the polls with Latino voters, they may not play as large a role as believed for several reasons, least of which is that not all Latinos oppose Trump's immigration policies. Many Latinos have followed all the immigration laws and support the legal immigration process of the United States. In addition, as Nate Cohn indicates, the Latino vote may not carry enough weight to swing the electoral college in Clinton's favor. One thing remains clear, all eligible voters need to vote in this election because the next President of the United States should not be predetermined by polls, statistics, and special interest groups.
All eyes are on the upcoming Presidential election and no segment of the voting population is escaping the notice of both parties. Both Clinton's and Trump's campaigns are diligently working to attract voters from these different groups. This article attempts to measure the importance of the Hispanic vote. Monkovic suggests that Trump's alienation of the Hispanic vote by policies such as building a wall, may serve as a firewall for Clinton, helping her campaign to secure the Latino vote in pivotal states such as Florida. I think that although it cannot be denied that Clinton is doing better in the polls with Latino voters, they may not play as large a role as believed for several reasons, least of which is that not all Latinos oppose Trump's immigration policies. Many Latinos have followed all the immigration laws and support the legal immigration process of the United States. In addition, as Nate Cohn indicates, the Latino vote may not carry enough weight to swing the electoral college in Clinton's favor. One thing remains clear, all eligible voters need to vote in this election because the next President of the United States should not be predetermined by polls, statistics, and special interest groups.
"But even big shifts among 15 percent of the electorate can be swamped by little shifts among the remaining 85 percent."
This is significantly misleading. Florida is about 17% black, so the white percentage (presumably, what this discussion is about) is only 68%.
This is significantly misleading. Florida is about 17% black, so the white percentage (presumably, what this discussion is about) is only 68%.
4
The poor don't vote, which is why both candidates can more or less ignore them.
9
Your article concerns Hispanic voters. I also think your article should mention that in States where Hillary has 10+ pt poll lead, those States represent 263 Electoral notes. I find that extremely important.
2
All this parsing and analysis of data really tells us is that Clinton would probably be doomed if she were running against anyone else but Trump. She and her supporters must hope and pray everyday that Trump doesn't quit the race.
3
When did America regressed to a tribal society? It's white vs Hispanic? How's that any different than Iraq Sunni vs Shia?
5
America has pretty much ALWAYS been a tribal society.
Think not?? -- A cursory glance through any American History book should solve that.
Think not?? -- A cursory glance through any American History book should solve that.
2
This assigned Michigan to Hillary. I don't think so. We've drifted steadily right. Hillary is much disliked, even beyond that.
6
Clinton has led in 16 of the 18 state polls conducted in Michigan over the past year. The odds that she is actually tied or trailing given her consistent poll successes is less than one-in-twenty.,
http://www.politicsbythenumbers.org/2016/08/10/swing-state-update/
http://www.politicsbythenumbers.org/2016/08/10/swing-state-update/
14
The odds that Trumpkins are totally delusional are 1,000 to 1.
7
Mark Thomason says, "his assigned Michigan to Hillary. I don't think so."
Look at the polls, please:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/michigan/
Clinton has maintained a solid 9% lead.
If you don't like 538's polling adjustments, here are the raw results:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-michigan-president-tru... .
Same story.
Look at the polls, please:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/michigan/
Clinton has maintained a solid 9% lead.
If you don't like 538's polling adjustments, here are the raw results:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-michigan-president-tru... .
Same story.
6
Perhaps Hispanics and other people have figured out that they can embrace conservative or liberal values, but aren't banking on tax cuts for the wealthy or Voo zoo economics to provide opportunitiy.
Maybe Republicans can still win without votes of people of color, but that window is rapidly closing.
Maybe Republicans can still win without votes of people of color, but that window is rapidly closing.
2
As hard working Hispanics continue to prosper and assimilate, more and more they will care how much taxes they pay, and how that money will be spent. They will move towards fiscal conservatism. As usual Liberals consider Hispanics as a "block". As usual you severely underestimate them.
5
Nice try but Republicans are no longer fiscally conservative. There's nothing fiscally conservative about substandard education, environmental disasters, poor health etc.
20
DR, you forgot the biggest example of Republicans NOT being fiscally conservative - two wars on credit by W.
7
FT - I never forget, my son and son in law are permanently damaged by those wars. You're right, I should have mentioned them. Thanks.
2
If the almost certain blue states add up to 269, how can you ignore New Hampshire which had a fifteen point Clinton lead in a recent high quality poll but is still a "tossup "? I understand that it is early but the odds right now, barring a Wiki October surprise, overwhelmingly favor Clinton. I also agree with those who foresee higher levels of registration and voting by Hispanics this year, further tilting the odds.
7
In about 8 years when Texas turns blue the gop will be done if they don't change the makeup of the party.
12
When you look at the map of red states, its sad to think so much swath of the country is supporting a racist and mean person such as Trump all because he is a Republican. Sad to think they support such views.
24
Mr. Cohn doesn't seem to have taken note of the fact that registration among Latinos is now at record levels. Why do you suppose that is, Donald? It seems to me that Hillary's ads should focus on Trump's own comments above and beyond anything else. Go back to the earlier ones; voters may have forgotten some of them by now. Go back to his libelous allegations that the President was born in Kenya. Go back to the statements about not needing money from prospective Jewish donors. And, considering how many voters of all races and religions honor and respect their parents, make sure to note that The Donald has never once credited his own father with the creation of the successful business he inherited (never mind the had-working employees who continue to keep that business going).
31
But Latinos don't vote. Why do you think Sheriff Joe in Arizona is running for a SEVENTH term (and will probably win as one of the few elected officials whose embrace of Trump will help him.)
If Latinos actually voted, then AZ and TX would be purple-blue today, as Ruy Texeria claimed in 2004 they would be by this time.
If Latinos actually voted, then AZ and TX would be purple-blue today, as Ruy Texeria claimed in 2004 they would be by this time.
5
In a largely Muslim neighborhood in the Bronx the local Islamic center has a big Register to Vote sign. Clearly Donald is doing a great job encouraging voter registration - against him!
12
Spread the word, Malperson. The news will bring Trump another 10,000 votes...
2
It looks like Hillary is going to win Utah. 6 Electoral votes. Done. And I think she's going to win Florida anyway, which puts her way over the top.
In the end, I think that in spite of how working-class Americans have gotten screwed, they're going to realize that Trump may be fun, but he's absolutely no answer and he's not going to get them any jobs. If that happens, Trump will even lose Ohio and maybe Iowa. I don't believe the people of Iowa are going to simply ignore Trump's craziness and remarks like his "2nd Amendment people" remark of the other night.
In spite of Trump's success so far, I've never felt that the country that elected Obama twice would elect a Trump. How would that be possible?
In the end, I think that in spite of how working-class Americans have gotten screwed, they're going to realize that Trump may be fun, but he's absolutely no answer and he's not going to get them any jobs. If that happens, Trump will even lose Ohio and maybe Iowa. I don't believe the people of Iowa are going to simply ignore Trump's craziness and remarks like his "2nd Amendment people" remark of the other night.
In spite of Trump's success so far, I've never felt that the country that elected Obama twice would elect a Trump. How would that be possible?
22
Most of Trump's threatening of Mexicans and immigrants obviously is direct vote intimidation. Nothing subtle about it. The Republicans do it through their flimsy and transparent 'anti-voter-fraud' myth based laws. At its core this election is about whether we are a democracy or are going to collapse into fascist dictatorship that we have historically been a refuge from.
Hispanics are totally able to swing Florida along with African Americans and retired New Yorkers who are still Liberal or who know what Trump really represents.
Hispanics are totally able to swing Florida along with African Americans and retired New Yorkers who are still Liberal or who know what Trump really represents.
31
It's just as well that Mr. Trump doesn't need the Latino vote -- there probably wasn't too much chance of him getting it anyway.
6
Must be Republicans - I can't think of anyone else who would decide the "Hispanic" vote won't make a difference in this election.
Wishful thinking of the Republicans.
The only thing they do. Wishful thinking.
Wishful thinking of the Republicans.
The only thing they do. Wishful thinking.
24
Hopefully the common sense and innate decency of the American people will form a firewall that Mr. Trump cannot "jump".
22
According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Hispanics, in 2015, made up 24.5% of the population in Florida.
8
Mr. Cohn's 15 percent figure applies to voters, not people. For one thing, your figure includes children, I assume?
Kids under 18 constitute 24.7 percent of the Hispanic population in Florida according to Census Bureau estimates for 2015. The comparable figure for non-Hispanics is just 18.8 percent.
As a proportion of the total population aged 18 or older, Hispanics constitute 23.1 percent.
More importantly, in 2012 just 41.8 percent of Florida's Hispanics voted according to the Census Bureau. They represented 17.2 of all Florida's voters.
https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/publications/p20/2012/Tab...
http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.x...
Kids under 18 constitute 24.7 percent of the Hispanic population in Florida according to Census Bureau estimates for 2015. The comparable figure for non-Hispanics is just 18.8 percent.
As a proportion of the total population aged 18 or older, Hispanics constitute 23.1 percent.
More importantly, in 2012 just 41.8 percent of Florida's Hispanics voted according to the Census Bureau. They represented 17.2 of all Florida's voters.
https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/socdemo/voting/publications/p20/2012/Tab...
http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.x...
6
Nate was focusing on percent of electorate which would reflect age demographics and voter registration.
Thank you for the data and the analysis.
Thoughtful discussion. Thank you!
As for the non college white voter, I think Trump's transgressions need to feel more close to home.
Like they could have been his target.
Here are three way to tarnish Trump in the eyes of the everyday working Joe and Jane who think so much of him.
Trump University.
Trump University.
Trump University.
Here's a forth way:
Trump University.
Get it?
One of the nastiest rip off schemes of common folks I've ever looked at. (Search it on the web and YouTube)
Willfully making up a fake "University" with nothing to learn except how badly you got suckered by a billionaire with no regard for morals or the law. Preying on the little guy he professes to champion.
Go ahead Trump supporters, I dare you to research the scam for which he'll be on trial this Fall - on charges of fraud and racketeering!
If Clinton pounds on this phony enterprise and the phony who promoted it, the average Trump supporter will turn on him and he'll be lucky to get even 30% in the election.
Let's hope the have the good sense to expose some very disgusting behavior by a very unsavory human being.
As for the non college white voter, I think Trump's transgressions need to feel more close to home.
Like they could have been his target.
Here are three way to tarnish Trump in the eyes of the everyday working Joe and Jane who think so much of him.
Trump University.
Trump University.
Trump University.
Here's a forth way:
Trump University.
Get it?
One of the nastiest rip off schemes of common folks I've ever looked at. (Search it on the web and YouTube)
Willfully making up a fake "University" with nothing to learn except how badly you got suckered by a billionaire with no regard for morals or the law. Preying on the little guy he professes to champion.
Go ahead Trump supporters, I dare you to research the scam for which he'll be on trial this Fall - on charges of fraud and racketeering!
If Clinton pounds on this phony enterprise and the phony who promoted it, the average Trump supporter will turn on him and he'll be lucky to get even 30% in the election.
Let's hope the have the good sense to expose some very disgusting behavior by a very unsavory human being.
51
I think calling for the "wink wink" assassination of a President or Supreme Court justice is far more disgusting than his Trump University schemes, which the average American will probably partially blame on the people who signed up for it.
What the average Trump supporter should also be upset about is his tax scheme, but they probably don't take the time to understand it. His reduction of the number of tax brackets will mean they'll pay more, not less. (Only the rich in the highest brackets will pay less). And his proposed elimination of the estate tax is ridiculous because few of his supporters (if any) would ever have to pay it anyway (if they had that much money, they wouldn't be Trump supporters in the first place).
And that is all aside from his absurd comments about the possibility of using nuclear weapons in Europe. Don't his supporters realize that this would mean the end of the world? Don't they care?
What the average Trump supporter should also be upset about is his tax scheme, but they probably don't take the time to understand it. His reduction of the number of tax brackets will mean they'll pay more, not less. (Only the rich in the highest brackets will pay less). And his proposed elimination of the estate tax is ridiculous because few of his supporters (if any) would ever have to pay it anyway (if they had that much money, they wouldn't be Trump supporters in the first place).
And that is all aside from his absurd comments about the possibility of using nuclear weapons in Europe. Don't his supporters realize that this would mean the end of the world? Don't they care?
22
One has to wonder if Trump's relatively poor showing in Kansas might be the result of the disastrous GOP government under Sam Brownback. Perhaps Kansans are tiring of the Republicans in general, and that disaffection is extending to their support for Trump.
In the most recent Kansas poll, Trump is doing especially poorly with women. Clinton actually has a small lead among women in that state (41-37) while losing men badly (37-51). Almost half of Kansas women view Trump "extremely unfavorably." Clinton has problems with those women as well with 42 percent "extremely" unfavorable. Women also give Sam Brownback low grades. Unfortunately SurveyUSA didn't provide a crosstab of support for Trump by opinions about Brownback, but the demographics suggest women dissatisfied with the way things are going in Kansas are not supporting Trump.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport_main.aspx?g=048dcf9b-7e4e-4ca...
In the most recent Kansas poll, Trump is doing especially poorly with women. Clinton actually has a small lead among women in that state (41-37) while losing men badly (37-51). Almost half of Kansas women view Trump "extremely unfavorably." Clinton has problems with those women as well with 42 percent "extremely" unfavorable. Women also give Sam Brownback low grades. Unfortunately SurveyUSA didn't provide a crosstab of support for Trump by opinions about Brownback, but the demographics suggest women dissatisfied with the way things are going in Kansas are not supporting Trump.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport_main.aspx?g=048dcf9b-7e4e-4ca...
28
The argument that there is enough poorly educated white people out there that could swing the election to Trump needs to be substantiate with hard numbers, especially seeing how poorly he does with women and educated white.
The concept that Hispanics are 15% of the populations and thus small shifts on the 85% left could give Trump a victory does not factor in the black population. Again, hard numbers are needed here.
The concept that Hispanics are 15% of the populations and thus small shifts on the 85% left could give Trump a victory does not factor in the black population. Again, hard numbers are needed here.
15
If Hillary Clinton is the natural result of the Democratic 'process' in 2016 America then it is time to consider other models of governing.Ones that do not rely on the votes of delusional, naive and unsophisticated citizens. The Chinese system looks more and more appealing with each passing election cycle.
9
Your comment would make more sense if you were talking about Donald Trump.
26
Vote for Trump and maybe you'll get the Chinese system.
23
Are you kidding me? The Chinese system that puts journalists and lawyers into prison and allows less and less freedom of press and speech?