Why a Meaningful Shift in the Trump-Clinton Race May Be at Hand

Polling suggests Hillary Clinton is benefiting from support from Bernie Sanders’s backers, and from Donald Trump’s self-induced wounds.

Comments: 124

  1. Maybe there is a God after all.

  2. God helps those who help themselves. We can do that by voting.

  3. For the win!!!

  4. I know He who must not be named is the nominee for the Republicans, but can we take a break for three weeks?

    Just don't cover his tweets, his stupid rallies, etc,etc.


  5. Oh the contrary, cover every last bit of it. Trump is turning out to be Clinton's most effective campaigner.

  6. Ironically, it is precisely the wide coverage of Trump's racist rants, temper tantrums, impulsive tweets, and sustained outright falsehoods that has caused his polls to slump. So maybe we should all be thinking "faster, please."

  7. The simple answer is Mr. Trump is insane and the majority of Americans are not.

  8. I'm pretty sure I agree with you, but I'm more confident about one of your propositions than the other. :)

  9. - a slight majority, that is.

  10. Trump should've paid attention to the fate of Ramsay Bolton on Game of Thrones, who was so egotistically sure that his dogs wouldn't turn on him.

  11. He still has Ryan and McCain though.

  12. "These gains have allowed Mrs. Clinton to move up to around 47 or 48 percent of the vote in recent polls." How is this NOT impressive? It's where Obama was in 2012 and 2008 in early August. Are we supposed to expect her to be over 50% for some reason?

  13. While one cannot predict the future, it looks like it is Hillary's election to lose.

    In the Republican primaries, Trump was the school class, bigoted, demagogic clown. People(republicans, independents) loved him, the press loved him and he won the nomination.

    Now people are asking themselves do we really want this guy?

    Leader after leader from all sides are warning us about him.

    Unless, god forbid, there is something like a major terrorist attack where the voters favor the fear monger or the demagogue or Hillary does something really stupid like running as a woman and not an American ticking off men and many women, it is hers to lose..

  14. I respectfully disagree regarding the consequences of a major terrorist attack. Trump has already shown himself to be too unbalanced to respond effectively as president to such a catastrophe. A large majority of the American voters are not so unbalanced as to think he could.

  15. You're right. She should have run as a man.

  16. Hi Steve: I think you may be right. There have been suggestions that a terrorist attack could benefit DT, but it's worth noticing that we have seen really terrible attacks, here and in France, and thank goodness he hasn't seemed to benefit from them much.

  17. It's dangerous to be complacent, but the idea that Trump's support has a ceiling of the low 40s in this nation is an excited possibility. He certainly has not been able to pull off the quintessential 'pivot' to the general election, and if he continues to run a campaign that is plainly self-destructive the numbers will surely not improve for him. America seems to have woken up to the reality that there is no other Donald trump than the one they see.

  18. The Trump base was, has been, and might always be, out and out racist. There is a segment that is just angry and looking for something more. But, there is a more significant portion that views the world as a zero sum game where any consideration, job or advantage afforded to someone else, especially a black person, but also a woman, is at their personal expense.

    Testing this assertions, one need only to look at the Trump "stimulus package'' - $1 Trillion dollars of inflationary (unfunded by taxes or structured debut) foolery. Republicans ready to declare insurrection against Obama's far more modest TARP - and jobs program (funded), seem unfazed by Trump's proposal.
    His base assumes that Trillion Dollars of jobs is going for them - the 'forgotten white majority' - that is neither forgotten or anywhere near a majority. It is a recreation of the "Southern Democrat Understanding" that tolerated the New Deal as long as locals got to distribute the spoils to whites.

    Trump knows this. It's not hard to figure out and is a very obvious conclusion to reach from listening to his base.

    Trump's other basis of support - fear of terrorism - and Giuliani style fear-mongering - seems to have wasted its seed on already planted ground. Giuliani himself was not able to run successfully on this premise, and Trump keeps running into the Khans and private hallucinations like the thousands cheering the WTC bombing in New Jersey, and the Iranian bound jet filled with ransom money.

  19. One would think he gets all his news from the National Inquirer - oh, wait . . .

  20. Can you imagine what that egomaniac is contemplating to get the world's attention away from the Olympics and back on him???

  21. Holding my breath

  22. Don't just cheer - VOTE! ✔

  23. How did it ever get to this.
    The only way that this repulsive cynical establishment shill could ever have got herself elected was if the Republicans were to scour the length and breadth of the land and find the one candidate who could be marginally more loathsome than she is.
    Incredibly and against overwhelming odds they managed to achieve their goal.
    Is this the best the US can do? Really?

  24. I've had it with comments that try to compare Clinton who has been a highly rated public servant for years magically be 'almost as bad as Trump.' - Never any real basis for this is ever provided except for, Benghazi and baloney. She got 4,000,000 more votes than Sanders who now backs her. I started out for Bernie and then the more I listened the more I noticed that Clinton is considered 'boring' because she actually answers the question directly and to the facts. I may not have a graduate degree but I employ 12 workers and know the difference between a con job Atlantic City grifter like Trump and a capable pol. Hillary's a politician sure - a good one. Maybe Australia should worry about it's own situations - like being owned by China and needing an ally like the U.S. with a capable navy that honors its treaties and commitment - but no with the Don Con.

  25. It is not so bad being established. Society needs establishment, to which the GnOP refuses to contribute. Pointless comments contribute nothing, address no issues, express bile. Failing to recognize nihilism and destructiveness is anti-social, indiscriminate thinking. Nothing is marginal about that failure.

  26. Mark F. Mark, I agree with you whole-heartedly. This catch-phrase that Clinton is "the lesser of two evils," when she's been a phenomal public servants for forty years and is running against an escaped mental-patient... It is really sickening to hear. The Bernie-or-Bust crowd has bought the soundbites of the Right. Can't take it.

  27. No sane person wants to give Donald Trump the nation's nuclear codes. We actually want to survive as a species.

  28. The GOP no longer exists. There are the white nationalists that are backing Trump and there are some social conservatives and some fiscal conservatives backing him, but the grand ole party has fractured. It's gone. Thank god.

    which is not to say that Trump can't still win...but its looking less likely. VOTE.

  29. It's obvious the Hillary Camp has to expect another barrage of Benghazi or 'server' or whatever attacks. It's all the other side has. I just wish Hillary's handlers would for once get out in front as they anticipate what's inevitably on its way and start to mention it at rallies and Press Conferences, in Public Opinion Pieces, et al. Tell audiences something like, "Well, here they go again,". PLEASE be pro-active about this and get out in front of the other side's maneuvers. Get moving on this.

  30. Completely agree. I've been a Hillary supporter for a long time, but I wish Hillary would disclose more. I mean, I understand it - I can't imagine the trauma of having my personal life, my husband's affair, my marriage being headline news for the entire country for years. It would make me want extreme privacy as well. But unlike her, I would have faded into the private world. She admirably did not. And god, do I respect her for that. Not many women who had to suffer what she suffered could do what she did. With that said, she can't be an elected official and expect private to remain private. She should know that too, given the high offices she's held. If she can get over that instinct towards non-disclosure, I think she could really reverse herself in the eyes of moderates. At the end of the day, the things she hid turned out to be such little, non-controversial things. The bigger problem was hiding them.

  31. Hillary testified for hours on end about Benghazi.
    Republicans have used the act of questioning to prove guilt while finding Clinton innocent again and again. Who believes that if they have been able to charge with with the petty crime of shoplifting they wouldn't try to make it a felony.

    Bernie knew better - but still conflated these false offenses with his objections to her associations with centrists and corporate interests. Again - no quid pro quo was ever proven on anything. And Bernie fully supports Hillary now.

    The dilemma is how does one repeated 'disclose' innocence, while also not permitting ad hominem attacks and out-of-bounds personal prying into completely private matters without raising the sort of objections you raise in your comment? Enough!!

  32. I think they -are- out in front. "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake." She doesn't have to stoop to his level, and she shouldn't. Right now there are people streaming to support her, many of them Republicans. She doesn't and shouldn't do anything more than welcome them.

    Anything and everything she says will be used as a club to beat her with by Trump et.al. The less she says, the better.

  33. This election was never a contest. As a psychiatrist I knew that a combination of narcissism and sociopathy would doom Trump. Personality traits are enduring and do not change. He will continue to self destruct or if he manages to control his impulses (highly unlikely) he becomes plastic and robotic. Either way he loses. The only question is how big of a landslide and will he take the Republican control of senate and house down the drain with him.

  34. "The only question is how big of a landslide and will he take the Republican control of senate and house down the drain with him."

    The question for voters is whether they want the Party of No majorities in the House and Senate. Sixty-three (or have I lost count?) votes to repeal the Affordable Care Act? To be replaced by vague promises of Something Better?

    Shouldn't the Party of No have INITIATED a push to borrow at low interest rates and to rebuild crumbling infrastructure and to employ the construction workerforce sidelined by the burst housing bubble? Even though collapsing bridge stories make exciting, if tragic, news.

    Shouldn't they have RACED to fund the CDC's efforts to combat Zika? We know the effects of that plague, with 29 infected service members -- one of whom is pregnant. Instead they attached a poison pill amendment to that funding, to defund Planned Parenthood in plague time. Like many of their most science-averse supporters, they haven't grasped that family planning prevents conception and makes abortion unnecessary.

    When the bill comes due for $10,000 per year per microcephalic child, when many parents have felt the heartbreak of having a wounded baby, will the Party of No pay up or cry deficit reduction?

    It's time for voters to vote for senators and representatives who will look out for their constituents' hearts (health) and pocketbooks (welfare) instead of spewing the rhetoric of Pinchpennies and Puritanism.

  35. One can only hope.

  36. This is the best chance the American electorate have to clean house and restore true democracy to your country. It won't occur with this election only but it is the beginning of a process where every vote gets to be counted and everyone eligible to vote can without hindrance. That will start by correcting the imbalance that bought W the election.

  37. Even before the current Trump disasters, he had to flip some blue states to win. Unlikely.

    18 states plus D.C . have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election between 1992 and 2012. 242 electoral votes.

    13 states have voted for the Republican presidential nominee in each of the past six elections. 102 electoral votes.

    If Clinton wins the 19 that every Democratic nominee has won and she wins Florida (29 electoral votes), she wins the White House.

    Or if she wins the 19 reliable Democratic states and Virginia (13 electoral votes) and Ohio (18). Or the 19 states plus Nevada (6), Colorado (9) and North Carolina (15).

    There are many ways for Clinton to get to 270 electoral votes. There are very few ways for Trump to get there.

  38. Good analysis. Right on!

  39. As a former Republican (I changed my party affiliation a few months ago to non affiliated), I don't understand how Trump was able to win the nomination. Now I feel forced to vote for Clinton, because I firmly believe that Trump should not become our president. I'm not sure what will happen to the Republican party after this election, but at this moment I don't feel comfortable and I do not identify myself with what the GOP has become.

  40. You should research Gary Johnson. By far the most palatable of 3 choices.

  41. Trump is his own worst enemy and he continues to prove it at nearly every opportunity. That his most loyal followers refuse to see this is very troubling. This is an excellent article and the details contained in "Who Will Be President" are fascinating.

    Missing from the whole is a hope that Trump supporters will awaken to the ineptitude and horrors they are supporting.

  42. One need look no further than the smart republicans and independents who are finally shouting out their support for Ms. Hillary Rodham Clinton. If one wants the truth about her good work they can't depend on the major media or polls. Both are about trying to increase revenue - not what's best for America.

  43. Turn out the lights, the party's over. In 10 days,
    the wheels have totally come off the Trump train wreck. Successful
    Democrat Convention, Hillary up 10 points, $400 million fantasy,
    election fixed, CIA Director editorial, Republican rats jumping the sinking ship, even Donny's hairdo is a lie.

    After the last 10 days not only Trump doesn't have a chance and the
    Republican Party has clearly signaled it's being drug down in flames

    Next the lame excuse (lie) why Donny is leaving the race.

  44. I think what the truth is , is that 90% of Berners will not vote for the #SociopathHillary as I can clearly see from all the 20 something pages I belong to from across the country. With #DemExit in full swing the Dem will be lucky if they still have 15% of the registered voters. They should not have rigged the elections and colluded the people. We will not reward someone for cheating. #BernieOrBust #GreenIsTheNewBlue

  45. The latest two polls regarding Bernie supporters have 90/91% voting for Hillary. Of course these numbers can change but 90% not voting for her is ridiculous. Given how bad Trump is, most people who do not like him will definitely vote in November, but not for him!

    The only person who would definitely vote for him is Putin!

  46. Because childish namecalling is how sober analysis is made.

  47. Nate Silver needs to consider that hate has been getting hurled at people of color in America by those who back and own Trump as he is a demagogue driven by mob mentality. The Republicans were already pretty far out on this limb but, wow, the rachetting up on the rhetoric in that 'Law & Order' convention followed by the Kahn performance - hard genie to put back in the bottle. Harder, in fact impossible to 'gain back' votes you never had.

  48. Overheard at Rocky's while George was pouring foam:
    ''I'm still voting Trump, to send a message.''
    ''Yeah message: I'm a jerk too.''

  49. Encouraging, but no one knows what Trump is willing to do to turn things around. I think it's really way to early to be counting our chickens. This is an election year like no other, and it is not going to behave as others have. Wait and see....and work hard! I'm with her.

  50. Oh yeah! There could be an October surprise from Julian ASSange.

  51. You see. Bernie supporters want what's best for our country, and that is certainly NOT Don the Con, nor is it a Republican controlled Congress. Let's have a big old British-style "clear out."

  52. Remember, your vote is not a way to demonstrate your political purity. It is a way to protect and improve your country. A vote for Jill Stein is a self indulgent waste. A vote for Jill Stein in a swing state is a shameful self indulgent waste.

  53. A vote for Jill Stein is a vote for President Trump's Supreme Court justices

  54. I am known to be a glass-half-full kinda person, but when it comes to the daily realignment of the polls, all I can think is "35% of my 'countrymen' plan to vote for an escaped mental patient???" It's absolutely sickening. As several people have mentioned below, the smearing of Clinton is disgraceful, and I'm particularly amazed that the Bernie-or-Bust and Jill Stein folks--most of whom, it seems, are too young to remember Bush v. Gore (though Susan Saradon has no excuse)--seem to have bought the Rightwing propaganda hook, line, and sinker. People keep saying "Give me one reason to vote for Clinton"; read her damn Wikipedia page! "She an entitled narcissist"; are you kidding me? She's worked harder than anyone to get to where she is, and I believe another candidate the cycle has full-heartedly taken on the "narcissist" label. I keep hearing people say "What was Clinton doing while Sanders was marching with Dr. King?" She was becoming valedictorian at Wellesley and then working her butt of at Yale Law, after which she moved to Arkansas instead of taking a BigLaw job, where she ran the first Legal Aid law clinic. She has truly been a public servant her entire life. Trump has truly served no one but himself his entire life.

  55. Don't forget that even while she was at Wellesley and Yale Law, she was still taking time to help children and other underprivileged folks. Even if I hadn't admired before then, her husband's story of how she has always kept working for others made me proud to be a supporter.

  56. I'm feeling more optimistic than I have in a long time. It looks like the Bernie supporters are going to deliver for Hillary. That should bode well for Bernie, with either some plum committee memberships or even a Cabinet post.

    I do worry about that 35% you've referred to. They're not going to be any happier after Trump takes it on the chin this November.

  57. I was ecstatic two days ago when I picked up the phone and it was a survey! As I gave my answers I hoped there were many more like me around Florida, speaking out strongly for Hillary. When the results came out yesterday, I was thrilled. I am trying to contain my excitement. We still have 94 days to go.

  58. I was equally excited to get the survey call in Ohio. When it came to what is your opinion of Donald Trump and would I vote for him, my first thought was, "Even if a disaster wiped out the entire Democratic party, I still wouldn't vote for that lunatic."

    Instead, I just said strongly negative to both questions.

  59. They never have the responses I want to make. :)

  60. When I read a nasty comment here from some guy in Australia criticizing Hillary Clinton I was going to fire a negative comment back at him. But then I remembered what our wonderful, positive First Lady Michelle Obama said at our wonderful, positive Democratic National Convention: "When they go low, we go high." Thank you for a beautiful lesson, Michelle.

  61. And all together now: Don't Boo,Vote!

  62. You make me proud and happy to be living in Vermont. Thank you.

  63. The tide slowly but surely turns and it is more and more likely that Hillary Clinton will be the next President. But when do we get to debate the culture and the mindset generated in this country by a Fox News view of the world with insinuation rather than fact, partisanship before policy and salacious character assassination that breeds the likes of a Trump??

  64. How about now? Even as Roger Ailes slithers off, Jabba the Hut-like, toward the warm embrace of his money?

  65. If Democrats, Republicans and independents vote for Hillary in large numbers, Trump will not get to be our president, which can only be wonderful news for our country. Mind you, he will assert that the election, like the system, is rigged.

    It's predictable that Trump declares these rigged given how he does business himself. For him, it's all about rigging the deal so he wins and everyone else — from investors to taxpayers — loses. This guy's moral compass is always in spin mode.

    Eclectic Pragmatist — http://eclectic-pragmatist.tumblr.com/
    Eclectic Pragmatist — https://medium.com/eclectic-pragmatism

  66. I am increasingly of the conviction that Donald Trump is a shill or quisling for the Democratic Party and Hillary Clinton. There is no other *rational* explanation of his actions, which are not only personally self-destructive but undermining of the Republican Party as a whole. Well, of course, that leaves the variety of *irrationality*-based explanations that are floating around....

  67. Can you imagine Trump being part of a conspiracy that isn't centered on him?

  68. Remarkable that you are still expecting a "rational" explanation for Trump's actions. You are ignoring the one true rational explanation-- that Trump is a deranged pathological liar. as attested by many who have known and followed his life's course.

    But I like your theory: Hillary made him do it! That makes perfect, rational sense.

  69. Nothing like a self-destructive narcissist!

  70. Three months to go and so much can happen. Why just today, Donald Trump admitted in a tweet that he was wrong about seeing (nonexistent) footage of the money plane!
    Reasonable people may scoff at the Trump camp's dark warnings about a rigged election, but rather than laugh, the rest of us should take it as a serious indication of where the Trump campaign's head is at.
    So here's another dark warning. You don't need a broad-based conspiracy to steal the presidency -- all it would take in a close election is a few well-placed cases of vote manipulation, during the balloting or the recounts and recanvassing that seem so inevitable.
    Just ask President Gore.

  71. The fact that Mr. Trump is appearing to be more unhinged is showing that he is unfit to run the country. His fascination with Nuclear warheads is quite worrisome along with his mental instability.

  72. Narcissist: someone in love with him/herself.....an egoist. This is Trump's basic problem, and why he does not believe that he needs advice to run a winning campaign - he seems to really and truly believe that he is smarter than any expert and has the right to say whatever he wants, because he is always (and I do mean ALWAYS) the one who knows best. The Republicans can try to rein him in (they already have), but it will not last long-term. He is sure to go down in history as the worst-prepared and most self-centered candidate in America. We MUST NOT let him near the center of power in this country....God help us.

  73. Moderate Republicans like Hillary because she supports corporations, the military-industrial complex and the super wealthy. The Bernie supporters think they have nowhere else to go. Her main platform is "not Trump".

    “But this new mindlessness -- now justified in part to block Trump's path to the White House -- could very well set the stage for a catastrophic escalation of big-power tensions under a Hillary Clinton presidency. Former Secretary of State Clinton has already surrounded herself with neocons and liberal hawks who favor expanding the war against Syria's government, want to ratchet up tensions with Iran, and favor shipping arms to the right-wing and virulently anti-Russian regime in Ukraine, which came to power in a 2014 coup supported by U.S. policymakers and money.
    “To conform with the neocon-driven narratives, much recent history has been lost. For instance, few Americans realize that some of President Barack Obama's most notable foreign policy achievements resulted from cooperation with Putin and Russia, arguably more so than any other "friendly" leader or "allied" nation.”

    Hillary is a war hawk and a supporter of Wall Street and the super wealthy.


    Jill Stein 2016

    agenda similar to Bernie’s.
    see Jill’s Website
    Jill Stein for President 2016

  74. Anti-vax=anti-science. 9/11 truther. Not enough political skills for the toughest job in the world. No thanks.

  75. How did you and so many others come to this distorted view of Hillary? It really is exactly as Bill Clinton said in his masterful speech: you have been taken in by a caricature of Hillary, a cartoon version of her created by Republicans in order to destroy her. It is not real! You have been conned, and you are playing right into their hands. Vote for Jill Stein? Yes! That is *exactly* what they want you to do. You are their puppet, you and your BernieOrBust crowd, whatever remains of them. But, you have a choice. You can wake up. As Bill Clinton said, you can choose to see the real Hillary, see her for who she really is, not this fake cartoon character, and then decide. Of course it's your choice, but at least decide based on reality and not a devious fiction.

  76. One does not start one's political career by running for President. One does not manage a successful third party by only paying attention once every four years.

    Let Jill Stein prove she can both win and govern at the local/state level and maybe I'll care. Given the pandering ti anti-vaxxers, likely not.

    Pro Tip: Dear Libertarians, having a chubby neckbeard strip to his nuthugger as the showpiece of your convention is not. good. advertising. for. your. Party.

  77. I am sixty five years old. I am white. I got my college degree last summer. ( I was on the 46 year plan.) Thank God. Now I don't have to vote for (I stole this) the "Cheeto Benito".

    While we're at it: Where are the tax returns,Donny? What are you hiding. Look, you could turn this into money. Call Geraldo "Jerry" Rivera. You two will get along great. He'll show you how to turn cr-p into cash, dross into dough.

    Let us not forget Donny's inamorata, Vladi Putin. How much does he owe his Russian oligarch benefactors?. .. Do they own him outright? Let's see those tax returns! Has Trump sold the Republican candidacy for a Scottish golf course? Inquiring minds want to know! (That's your cue, Jerry Rivera)


  78. It seems more and more likely that Hillary Clinton will prevail, and if her poll margins increase or stay the same, the DNC will throw more resources into key Senate races. We could be looking at a Dem white house and a Dem majority in the Senate, plus a more moderate majority in the House. Maybe we'll see some break in this legislative logjam.

  79. Why? How about logic? The pro-Russia, unstable and unqualified candidate vs one of the most qualified candidates in history.

  80. The enemy now is COMPLACENCY. For Hillary to win, we need to convince more independents and Republicans to vote for her. We need millenials, baby boomers and Bernie people to volunteer for her. Elections are won with boots on the ground. If you don't want Trump to have his finger on the nuclear button, please volunteer for Hillary today. If you have the means, go to a swing state to volunteer (local Hillary volunteers can put you up). Take vacation time to do this or make calls from your home. We need all hands on deck to save our democracy!

  81. What I am counting on is the inherent moderate middle of the voting public who do not go off on tangents and do not want an unreliable person for our President. All we hear about is the Trump supporters who seem to be full of rage, not so bright, and out to prove something. They reflect the same values and characteristics of him and seem willing to throw away good common sense even when it comes to our President. In the end the good moderates will elect a new President who is a real leader and who can keep our country away from one tangent after the other.

  82. This election is not about The Tortoise and The Hare. This election is more like Ripley vs. The Alien. But it's not a movie or a Fairy Tale. We must defeat Donald 'Alien' Trump. We must get out the vote and insure a year from now we're reading about Madam President Hillary Clinton.

  83. As a cautious poll-watcher who leans left, I boggled at some of the number I saw. Trump fourth among 18-29 year olds? That's not just bad this year, that's bad for the next 40 years, if you're a traditional Republican, anyway.

    Throw into this the fact that the (D)s have passed on further ad buys in Colorado and Virginia and are looking to expand the race into Georgia and Arizona.....yeah, there's a meaningful shift taking place, all right.

  84. A big part of mr. Trumps appeal to white working class voters is his perception as a winner. Absent strong philosophical leaning or policy preferences, people just like to be on the winning side. If his fall in the polls persists, then a good portion of his supporters will begin to have doubts about him and will start to tune into the negative press that they had been ignoring earlier in the race. This may turn into a self reinforcing death spiral for his campaign, with his casual supporters losing interest in not just him, but the election overall.

  85. As long as Donald Trump continues to be the one-man demolition derby that he is, it will make relatively little difference whether or not there's a post-convention bounce for Clinton.

  86. You indicate here, Nate, that some sort of sense is beginning to build in this fractious election. It looks like Hillary is getting support due to some consolidation that, as you say, one would expect after a successful convention. Dems handled it pretty well, all things considered, some of the things considered being stacking the deck against Bernie Sanders.

    Of those who vote, most need to vote for something. Hillary is a standard type of presidential candidate. Being a woman buys her only so much, and she has to appear that she can actually deliver for the undecided voter. In a normal election, the opposing candidate would also appear that he or she delivers, so there would be a choice. But Donald Trump is of a different nature; there isn't a depth of experience there that pulls people in, and even a behavior that pushes people away.

    Hillary pushes people away as well, but less so. One could roll his or her eyes and vote for her. That's all it takes and is probably behind the numbers that you present to us today.

    One of the other issues is that this is a country, the politics of which are based on the two party system. Trump, as much of a rabble rouser as he is, still has to get a buy-in from Republican voters and present a clear Republican approach to governing to the undecided voter so that he or she can feel confident about voting for him. That's not happening, it looks like.

    I think that we'll all have learned a little more statistics after this ends.

  87. Sorry. But if you don't see a behavior in Trump that pushes people away, you are obviously watching a different channel.

    I, for one, am pushed away by Donald trump's behavior, and I don't need statistics for that.

  88. The only choice for me is Gary Johnson. No way I can vote for a corrupt pathological liar or a racist demagogue. I don't care if he loses or not, as it is the only way I can have a clear conscience.

  89. Even if he country goes to hell. Even if by voting for a third party candidate you and your fellow 'clear conscience' voters hand the Presidency over to a bigot, a racist, an ignoramus with his hands on the nuclear codes. That doesn't make you stop and think? Every vote counts. This may be the most important election in our lifetime.

    But at least you will have the luxury of a 'clear conscience'.

  90. Give my regards to President Trump's Supreme Court justices

  91. How about this scenario: Trump gets a $1 billion secret payment from distressed Republican bigwigs and resigns from the "rigged" race, turning all leftover fundraising dollars to the new candidate. Republicans, overjoyed and rejuvenated, surge to a fall victory. A year later, a ghost-writer pens a best seller telling the tale and netting Trump another $250 million. He lives on through the centuries as the greatest con man in history.

  92. When this is all said and done, we as a nation need a frank autopsy on why Trump was allowed to happen. The fact that someone this unstable and unqualified was permitted to capture a major party's nomination, all by himself, suggests that something is deeply rotten in our society. Healthy democracies don't produce nominees like him.

  93. Trump was "allowed to happen" because the Republican party and a compliant media wanted to see if they could profit from Rome burning. The fact that both have proven themselves unfit as guardians of Democracy is exemplified by their respective nominee and the circus atmosphere of the coverage of that nominee.

  94. A "wall" has always been waiting in the future for "Mr. Trump The GOP Candidate" to eventually collide into. Seems more and more likely voters are finally realizing it was never going to be that other wall Mr. Trump has continued promising to his fewer and fewer die hard supporters.

  95. The party of Lincoln is no more.

  96. Has never been since the time of Nixon

  97. Peggy Noonan called it in today's WSJ -- people are beginning to think Trump is clinically (not metaphorically) nuts.

  98. It’s an important moment for Trump. People are counting on him. Some he has to win back; some he has to win over. If Trump’s candidacy—the possibility of political and economic reform—truly represents an important moment for the country, too, then it’s about more than simply defeating Clinton. Neither of them is the cartoon or caricature they can easily be satirized as and represent different agendas.

  99. The landmines in Hillary's path amount to -

    Assange and friends releasing juicy tidbits from her hacked system;
    voters deciding that honesty matters;
    more bloodshed in American streets by Obama's new friends;
    insiders blaming the Benghazi stand-down order in her;
    voters deciding 3,000 abortion deaths a day is just too much;
    people hearing THAT voice too many times;
    and Trump critics realizing that THEY, too had friends or family who used to talk just like he talks.

    Plus anyone needing a job, of course. You have to assume that.

  100. Really? If honesty matters, Clinton should win with a 50% margin. Politifact (a non-partisan organization) rates a full 70% of Trump's verifiable statements as mostly or completely lies. 70%! Clinton rates at 27% partly or fully lies.

  101. Whew--then we have nothing to worry about!

  102. What I think is starting to happen is that decency is trumping party and ideology. Even staunch Republicans don't want the stain of voting for Trump when he's so repugnant. Mormons for instance, don't like woman-haters and the LDS Church has taken stands that are pro-immigrant because they don't want families broken up, and it also has a good relationship with Muslims , in part, because of doctrinal similarities. Mormons can swing Arizona because they're so plentiful there. They are also numerous in Nevada. I could even see Utah or Idaho going to Gary Johnson because of Mormon backlash against Trump.

    Most voters, at the end of the day, don't want to vote for a guy who smears them or their families, friends or neighbors. They at least what human decency.

  103. Still too early, stakes are too high to feel overconfident in this one.

  104. That's it; that's Hillary's campaign strategy? She simply intends to kick back and let the supposedly independent press campaign for her? The point is, her polling number are an illusion. They do not accurately reflect the real situation on the ground as much as the growing crowds at Trump's rallies do, and Hillary's people know this. But this may be her only option. But it too is doomed to fail in the end when Trump holds his biggest rally on election day and real people show up at the polls who rarely show up at the polls and, of which, none of these polls have been adjusted for, to let their voices be heard loud and clear.

  105. These are not "her" polling numbers — this is a broad view of data from many different polls over the past week. If you really think that all of these different polls from different sources are *all* wildly incorrect, you might want to reconsider who is living the illusion.

  106. I believe that the voters have already made up their decision. The only thing that can change their minds are the characteristic of the candidate behavior leading up to the election. Which clearly show how unqualified drumpf really is and how qualified Hillary is . You will even see drumpf poll numbers drop even lower than these

  107. Crouds at rallies have little or nothing to do with election outcome. Remember Mitt's big rallies while Obama people were registering and contacting voters. Donald has no ground game or voter ID , registration operation. No idea how to run a modern campaign. He's cooked!

  108. Moreover, Trump drawing big crowds is an indication that he is reaching those who have simply not voted recently, especially since the 2008 elections. This number is massive and could very easily throw all of these polling numbers out the window.

  109. So suppose Trump fades to almost certain defeat. Does the NYT and so much of the rest of the mainstream media consider it a one-horse race? Will it cheer (more openly?) enthusiastically for Ms. Clinton? Or will it see her weaknesses and flaws, question her "presidentialness," and finally look at the other candidates fully in this race (hey, they've been there all along)? Will they actually ask "are Gary Johnson or Jill Stein more presidential?" Or will they continue on the track of promoting only Dems or Republicans as defining "presidential?"

  110. Presidential? That's a hypocritical and meaningless concept. Are senators senatorial? It simply boils down to answering the question, can the person do the job? And do enough people believe the person can do the job.

  111. I believe the Marist Poll shows that Clinton in the choice of 65% of those who supported Sanders in the primaries ... not 90%. The CNN poll does show 91% of Sanders supporters prefer Clinton, but unlike the Marist Poll, CNN did not mention third party candidates Johnson and Stein by name, and 17% of Sanders supporters who prefer Clinton say their minds aren't made up.

  112. It already says a lot, that so many Sanders supporters would even THINK of supporting Trump.

  113. He will continue his crazy claims and rhetoric and the gap between he and Secretary Clinton will continue to widen until the first debate. Then he will truly display his total unpreparedness for the the office of President and he and his Republican Party will have their Hindenburg moment which will devastate down ticket outcomes for them as well. You truly do reap what you sow.

  114. Her Entitled Wonderfulness has successfully avoided all difficult questions for over half a year. When Hillary runs into Donald the world will see just how unprepared she is for any leadership position.

    While Donald can run businesses here and there, Hillary only dreams up schemes where she takes advantage of all the little people - those fools who have to obey laws. No wonder she sneers at people.

  115. Did you mean to say that The Donald "can run businesses" or that he "can ruin businesses"? How many bankruptcies again?

  116. So is that why drumpf is trying to get out of the debates . He doesn't want to belittle Hillary . If that's your excuse. I have a university you can enroll in right now

  117. you are so right! she is a crook.

  118. The deal is that most Americans are so familiar with both Hillary and The Donald that there isn't much room for indecision here. If you're supporting HRC you're doing so despite her obvious failings and ethical problems. If you're supporting The Donald you're doing so despite the fact that a snarling dog has as much claim on the presidency as he has. Hillary's chances of losing this election are essentially restricted to the possibility that evidence will turn up showing that she personally ordered a hit on our ambassador to Libya or that her e-mails containing our nuclear codes landed on the desk of Vladimir Putin. The Donald, on the other hand, can be counted upon to continue insulting minority groups and demonstrating a complete lack of knowledge on issues both foreign and domestic. Plus there's the near-certainty that the "Trump University" lawsuit will blow up in his face. As for the upcoming debates, who are we kidding?

  119. The polls are absolutely worthless this year. Anyone who supports Hillary will readily say so when asked. However there are numerous "closet" Trump supporters who are prepared to vote for him but will not admit that in a poll. Thus these polls are completely unreliable. Any organization being paid to conduct a poll is stealing money and any campaign that bases its strategy on poll results is heading for a rude awakening.

  120. I think you are absolutely right. And these same voters probably won't admit it to their family and friends, either.

  121. The problem is that the polls were so wrong in the last presidential election. I wish they'd stop the constant reporting of the polls because it could skew the results or cause people ready to vote for the sane candidate to stay home if they think the election is a lock.

  122. Many complications can happen on the way to Election Day, such as Julian Assange's promised dumps of DNC emails...

  123. Debates will take their toll. But I believe there are some Willie Horton or a little girl pulling petals off a daisy still to come. One will most likely be a speech by Donald Trump ,where you can replace his comments on Muslims with alternative groups such as Jews,Catholics, African Americans, Italian Americans ,etc.,etc. Another is that Millania's 1995 photographs will become a part of a campaign strategy to maintain a white male voter base. Or that Millania will face scrutiny over getting paid for work not allowed by her visa. Or Jane Doe's accusations will come to light via the Epstein/Trump connection. People are beginning to block out any thing Mr. Trump has to say,having cried wolf one too many times. Hopefully the trend continues,people are having serious doubts. The change in the electorate is that Hillary is human. That Putin & Julian Assange are definitely against Hillary because she has challenged them,as well as Trump. That some enemies are good to have,and Americans prefer Hillary,for simply the enemies she has made. Bernie Sanders didn't lose,he now has a commitment as we all should to fight our common enemies. The Democrats are the party of WE,not the Republican Party of ME,that Trump personifies. My trophy wife,my trophy family, my trophy business,my trophy supporters. So let's buy Mr. Trump a trophy after the election, so he can carry it around for all to view. Leave the brass plate blank,since he will write what it was for.