If homo sapiens is going to survive, it not only needs to learn the “Don’t Sell Your Soul” lesson from Faust, but also the lesson, “Don’t Be Arrogant – Pride Goes Before a Fall” from Lucifer, who was cast down from Heaven to Hell when he tried to seize power from God. Humanity needs to understand that Nature rules the World, not Humans.
The goal is to strengthen the EU political alliance, not weaken it. This century will be the challenge of our time because of the urgent necessity to reach an political consensus for the whole World to gear up for the removing the threat posed by global warming. It is no time for false pride or short term thinking.
All of the advanced world is highly dependent of fossil fuels and we must identify and adapt technologies that we have become so accustomed to non-fossil technologies.
My colleague and I have made our case in Silent Earth for technologies which will eliminate the emissions from fossil fuels by creating cheap electricity with a constellation of space solar satellites in orbit and then using a portion of the electricity to make synthetic gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel from air and water. We have also proposed a new Maglev mode of transport for logistics and passenger travel which is a lot more efficient than any technology yet devised.
The goal is to strengthen the EU political alliance, not weaken it. This century will be the challenge of our time because of the urgent necessity to reach an political consensus for the whole World to gear up for the removing the threat posed by global warming. It is no time for false pride or short term thinking.
All of the advanced world is highly dependent of fossil fuels and we must identify and adapt technologies that we have become so accustomed to non-fossil technologies.
My colleague and I have made our case in Silent Earth for technologies which will eliminate the emissions from fossil fuels by creating cheap electricity with a constellation of space solar satellites in orbit and then using a portion of the electricity to make synthetic gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel from air and water. We have also proposed a new Maglev mode of transport for logistics and passenger travel which is a lot more efficient than any technology yet devised.
3
Dear Dr. K:
Some things (even many things!) in life are more important than money.
If, according to your magic economic formula, the U.K. is indeed 2% poorer if it leaves the UK...so be it.
If I was there, I know how I would vote.
The EU is a mess and there's literally no end in sight. There's simply too many known dangers -- economically, and with terrorism and open immigration -- to continue remaining in the EU.
The propaganda in the press has been relentless for people to vote no. We shall see if this pushes people in the opposite direction come election Day.
Some things (even many things!) in life are more important than money.
If, according to your magic economic formula, the U.K. is indeed 2% poorer if it leaves the UK...so be it.
If I was there, I know how I would vote.
The EU is a mess and there's literally no end in sight. There's simply too many known dangers -- economically, and with terrorism and open immigration -- to continue remaining in the EU.
The propaganda in the press has been relentless for people to vote no. We shall see if this pushes people in the opposite direction come election Day.
36
Europe is unfixable. Britain should get out.
33
Too complex a decision to make in such a short period of time on such limited information. Postponement for further study would be the best result. Britain may not do as well outside the EU as Switzerland and Norway.
7
Brexit has everything to do with their country getting run over by migrants who will not assimilate, ever. Their great culture is fading away and this is their last (and best) chance to save it. The economic consequences of leaving are uncertain, but the cultural consequences of remaining are inevitable.
39
"My rough calculations, which are in line with other estimates, suggest that Britain would end up about two percent poorer than it would otherwise be, essentially forever. That’s a big hit." - Prof. Krugman
I wouldn't underestimate the spirits of Britons when they are put to test on their independence and capability. Britons are optimistic people so they will do better when they must. How does one quantize this population sentiment in the model for that two percent?
I wouldn't underestimate the spirits of Britons when they are put to test on their independence and capability. Britons are optimistic people so they will do better when they must. How does one quantize this population sentiment in the model for that two percent?
14
The option of quitting later is only for those who can't make up their mind or don't know what they are doing and so punt it. Economic union is a meaningless exercise, except for Germany and France, who can dictate to other countries by looting their wealth. Brexit is the way to go, it should never have joined.
16
Ducking and hoping for the best is not a good policy. Brexit is probably a good idea just to shake the structure, but with the caveat that a correctly structured United Europe is also a good idea. That said, I'm not sure how you you make a caveat official :)
5
I would vote leave, because when something is broken you need to fix it.
Exiting is the way to fix it - EU will have to reform itself in order to become more attractive so Britain can join again, some day.
If you vote remain, then you encourage the status quo and that hasn't worked well so far, and more problems will be added to the existing ones.
When the ship is sinking, it may be a good idea to abandon it. And yes, you could get wet, but at least you'll be alive.
Exiting is the way to fix it - EU will have to reform itself in order to become more attractive so Britain can join again, some day.
If you vote remain, then you encourage the status quo and that hasn't worked well so far, and more problems will be added to the existing ones.
When the ship is sinking, it may be a good idea to abandon it. And yes, you could get wet, but at least you'll be alive.
16
Krugman is so much better when he sticks to economics and facts and dispassionate analysis, and resists the urge for another hate the Republicans column, yada, yada, yada.
10
A Brexit would hurt finance but help manufacturing? You can see how the working class would support this. Saving finance might keep things from getting worse for them -- or would it? We've seen what finance can do in the way of moving jobs around the world.
Would saving finance make things better for the working class? That's been the story of globalization, but the past three decades say otherwise.
The Brexit is Britain's Trump moment. Go crazy or stay with things and as they. And the problem with Britain is that "things as they are," aren't too good and are getting worse.
Would saving finance make things better for the working class? That's been the story of globalization, but the past three decades say otherwise.
The Brexit is Britain's Trump moment. Go crazy or stay with things and as they. And the problem with Britain is that "things as they are," aren't too good and are getting worse.
8
Isn't the issue for the British a tradeoff between autonomy and prosperity? Do the British want more autonomy even in exchange for less prosperity?The issue isn't economic; it isn't even political. It's (in some sense) existential.
10
Dana maybe doesn't know that Norway has to accept EU migrants as a condition of EEA membership and has accepted a higher number of EU migrants per head of population than the UK. Norway also pays about the same per head to the EU as the UK ((GBP96 per head in 2015).
However, what the UK has and Norway does NOT have is a veto on major EU legislation. And of course, Norway does have all that oil and gas income to create the world's largest sovereign wealth fund from which it can fund social services to a much higher level than austerity-wracked Britain....
However, what the UK has and Norway does NOT have is a veto on major EU legislation. And of course, Norway does have all that oil and gas income to create the world's largest sovereign wealth fund from which it can fund social services to a much higher level than austerity-wracked Britain....
6
"There’s also a harder to quantify risk that Brexit would undermine the City of London — Britain’s counterpart of Wall Street — which is a big source of exports and income. So the costs could be substantially bigger."
You bet!
If you don't think the gnomes in Zurich and, especially, the Wolves in Frankfurt are licking their chops at the thought of a UK exit, then you haven't thought about the following:
The City got its hegemony as the financial center of Europe to some degree because of the inertia of Rule Britannia.
But after WWII it was arguably driven more by Pax Americana -- and the hegemony of the English language that went with it.
Guess what?
That linguistic barrier has now dissolved. I'm in Berlin, and professional Germans seem to talk to one another as much in English as German. Frankfurt could step up to the financial center plate for the EU without having to skip a linguistic beat.
That's why the cocaine sniffing traders there are saying:
Go ahead and exit, The City. Make our day!
You bet!
If you don't think the gnomes in Zurich and, especially, the Wolves in Frankfurt are licking their chops at the thought of a UK exit, then you haven't thought about the following:
The City got its hegemony as the financial center of Europe to some degree because of the inertia of Rule Britannia.
But after WWII it was arguably driven more by Pax Americana -- and the hegemony of the English language that went with it.
Guess what?
That linguistic barrier has now dissolved. I'm in Berlin, and professional Germans seem to talk to one another as much in English as German. Frankfurt could step up to the financial center plate for the EU without having to skip a linguistic beat.
That's why the cocaine sniffing traders there are saying:
Go ahead and exit, The City. Make our day!
7
Leaving would damage the elite in London and increase manufacturing jobs- now that's a great deal .
34
Britain is voting to retain national identity, sovreignity, and escape an unaccountable over reaching government. Of course Krugman is against it.
26
Brexit is a messy divorce when you already are sleeping in separate bedrooms and functioning with separate bank accounts, accomplishing nothing for the U.K. or the E.U., leaving both parties with needless post-traumatic socioeconomic and political stress disorder when the U.K. and the E.U. require full functioning capacities to sustain interdependent economic growth and international security.
6
"Bad or worse"- if you were a marketer and that was the slogan you came up with for the Brexit Referendum, you'd get fired on the spot.
But maybe, "definitely bad or potentially worse" is more accurate. The EU is a mess. It's highly dysfunctional. And there is no desire (and often no ability for non-Germans) to reform it. Germany does what's best for Germany and everyone else suffers- and that would be the source of an even worse slogan than "Bad or Worse". I can't help but think that maybe Britain would be better off. At least they'd have control of their own destiny- and there genuinely is something to be said for that- and maybe then the Germans will wake up and see that if they insist on getting everything their own way there may soon be nothing left.
But maybe, "definitely bad or potentially worse" is more accurate. The EU is a mess. It's highly dysfunctional. And there is no desire (and often no ability for non-Germans) to reform it. Germany does what's best for Germany and everyone else suffers- and that would be the source of an even worse slogan than "Bad or Worse". I can't help but think that maybe Britain would be better off. At least they'd have control of their own destiny- and there genuinely is something to be said for that- and maybe then the Germans will wake up and see that if they insist on getting everything their own way there may soon be nothing left.
16
Stop the presses, no Hillary Shillary and nary a defamatory remark on how Trump's ignorance has led to the downfall of the European Union! An admission that Krugatron could be WRONG about something? A caveat that "Noboby ever seems to acknowledge or learn from mistakes"! What the hell is going on here? What does "the credibility of........experts is low really mean? Is the great one facing some type of personal crisis, the NYT going bankrupt or Hillary being indicted? Listen Great One, get back in that cocoon and start pontificating in the usual arrogant, egotistical manner right now! Don't take all the fun out of disliking you by allowing reason to upset the usual biased propaganda and exaggeration. If you really want to be Sec. of the Treasury you'd better get back to earning your keep.
18
I would vote exit. It is better for everyone that nations are separate sovereign nations that minds it's own business first. The EU is doing what Nazi's tried to do with wars and other means to conjoin the various countries and cultures and that failed miserably. Here again they are doing this and people are uninterested, even the most tolerant people are getting fed up. Big governments and big systems invariably keep the public at bay and unable to hold them accountable. The solution is the exit.
24
Oddly, this piece makes me support Brexit. If I were British, a 2% economic decline would not be an unreasonable price to pay to be free from the EU's whims.
53
I'm tired of elites telling poor Britons that they will fail if Brexit happens. The elites need poor people to continue working long hours for low wages so that their billions in profits keep flowing in uninterrupted.
I have absolutely no trust in the Democratic or Republican parties. Britons don't even listen to their leaders, because they know the leaders just want to protect their own priviledge. On both sides of the pond, regular people are fed up with government leaders who are essentially just shells for the corporations. Profit, profit, profit, that's all they care about. Today, the poor know this, and they are starting to wake up to the fact that corporatism is replacing Democracy. Things will change, and the revolution is coming, just very slowly. When the Baby Boomers finally die off, that will be the time the Millenials take back the reins from the corporate elites.
I have absolutely no trust in the Democratic or Republican parties. Britons don't even listen to their leaders, because they know the leaders just want to protect their own priviledge. On both sides of the pond, regular people are fed up with government leaders who are essentially just shells for the corporations. Profit, profit, profit, that's all they care about. Today, the poor know this, and they are starting to wake up to the fact that corporatism is replacing Democracy. Things will change, and the revolution is coming, just very slowly. When the Baby Boomers finally die off, that will be the time the Millenials take back the reins from the corporate elites.
9
I vote leave. The dots I've connected tell me, foolishly or wisely, that the European Union is controlled by the huge banks and a few others in the 1% acting in the interests of the 1%. The dots I've connected tell me what the EU did to Greece was a massive theft, a theft of very valuable Greek resources, especially its shipping, ports and airports by the 1%. The dots I've connected tell me that austerity policies are enforced by Germany and are a veil for the theft of billions from the working class for obscene enrichment of the 1%.
I see austerity as the politics of free traders and de regulators in the US who are robbing the middle class and transferring that wealth to the 1% and I see the dots of international capital connected across the West with all the same aims: further impoverishment of the working class and further enrichment of the uber rich.
The policies of international capital: austerity, free trade, de-regulation, privatization, smashing labor's unions, benefits, and wages benefit only international capital and the corrupted politics that hides what the 1% are really up to.
I see austerity as the politics of free traders and de regulators in the US who are robbing the middle class and transferring that wealth to the 1% and I see the dots of international capital connected across the West with all the same aims: further impoverishment of the working class and further enrichment of the uber rich.
The policies of international capital: austerity, free trade, de-regulation, privatization, smashing labor's unions, benefits, and wages benefit only international capital and the corrupted politics that hides what the 1% are really up to.
16
UPSETTING THE EU APPLE CART Is precisely what the world does not need. A vote for Brexit is certain to cause far more widespread and long-term damage than the Brits realize. I hope cooler heads prevail, and that the EU will be more open to dialog between the central administration and member states.
4
Rather like....better the Devil You Know....stay with the EU....than
....to go with The Devil You Don't Know....
The Grass is Never Greener.....but...could be with the right kind of organic
fertilizer....so....look for the better fertilizer...and all will get greener and
the fields of the EU will eventually become grassier..
....to go with The Devil You Don't Know....
The Grass is Never Greener.....but...could be with the right kind of organic
fertilizer....so....look for the better fertilizer...and all will get greener and
the fields of the EU will eventually become grassier..
1
Mr. Krugman, you have insisted that Britain has been doing everything wrong for years, as to it's economic policies. I now understand that their economy is now doing quite well. What has changed?
3
Maybe they should rename the EU as the "UNITED NANNY STATES OF EUROPE"
Why should any European work to create/produce taxable wealth when he can live off of the government.
Why should any European work to create/produce taxable wealth when he can live off of the government.
2
Any chance Britain can push for wise changes in EU economic policy? Does the threat of Brexit provide the UK with leverage to accomplish change in the EU--"learning from mistakes"?
Mr Krugman, I thought that might be where you were going with your narrative.
Mr Krugman, I thought that might be where you were going with your narrative.
2
Mr. Krugman likely supports the EU because it is slowly evolving into an undemocratic bureaucratic state ruled by career bureaucrats, more along the lines of Communist China, than along the lines of, say, the USSR.
The real reason socialist Britain seems likely to opt out is because so many refuse to swallow the idea that suborning their democracy to autocratic rule from the Continent is good for everybody. Though, like the TPP, it would certainly be a temporary boon to today's rich.
The real reason socialist Britain seems likely to opt out is because so many refuse to swallow the idea that suborning their democracy to autocratic rule from the Continent is good for everybody. Though, like the TPP, it would certainly be a temporary boon to today's rich.
4
Dr. Krugman, I have read your insightful column and you have convinced me that Britain should vote in favor of the Brexit. The bottom line in my mind is that self-rule is more important than 2 percent of economic growth. I imagine that similar economic arguments could have been made by Americans in the 1770s as they contemplated exiting the British Commonwealth, and ultimately, we Americans have done pretty well economically.
10
Yes, I'm biased, but again, I question Krugman's authenticity. Remember your rules of thumb that help you in True/False tests, right? Okay, let me rephrase Krugman:
True or false: By choosing Brexit, Britain will forever end up two percent poorer than it would otherwise be.
Gosh... the assumptions that must have gone on to the back of that envelope!
True or false: By choosing Brexit, Britain will forever end up two percent poorer than it would otherwise be.
Gosh... the assumptions that must have gone on to the back of that envelope!
4
Among the things that folks might want to try and take to heart about Krugman's article is this: he's offering one and a half cheers for England's staying in the EU, without pretending that everything's just fine and the single currency isn't a problem.
I realize that we'd all like nice black and white answers in a nice, tidy, black and white world. Probably a good time to put on the big girl pants, though, and start coping with the compexity and ambiguity of reality.
I realize that we'd all like nice black and white answers in a nice, tidy, black and white world. Probably a good time to put on the big girl pants, though, and start coping with the compexity and ambiguity of reality.
1
"s Oxford’s Simon Wren-Lewis points out, Britain will still have the option to leave the E.U. someday if it votes Remain now, but Leave will be effectively irreversible. "
Maybe you meant to link to a different post, but the link you gave has absolutely nothing about this.
Nor does the premise make sense. Nations joined the EU after it was initially formed. If Britain leaves, there is no reason they couldn't join again someday.
Maybe you meant to link to a different post, but the link you gave has absolutely nothing about this.
Nor does the premise make sense. Nations joined the EU after it was initially formed. If Britain leaves, there is no reason they couldn't join again someday.
4
The E.U. with animal rights violator member Spain and human rights violator potential member Turkey, and who knows what other potential rights violators, is not and can never be a civilized union.
Laugh if you will, but human and animal rights matter, and don't expect harmony among those who violate them.
Laugh if you will, but human and animal rights matter, and don't expect harmony among those who violate them.
4
Add to that of course top-down corrupt Greece, and lesser offenders like Portugal and Italy, and then put the guilt trip on the few responsible members like Germany, Holland and Finland, and you have a nice mess of fish.
4
If what you want is a weaker pound, so as to rebalance the British economy away from London, Brexit is the wrong way to go about it. The most logical course of action is simply to eject London from the sterling zone.
Immediately, the pound weakens and the economies of the rest of the UK become more competitive. Long-term investments in plant, equipment, training and infrastructure make sense again.
As a bonus, London would be able to turn the funds no longer needed for transfer payments toward improving its own competitiveness by investing in public works, research and development, and educating its citizens.
Immediately, the pound weakens and the economies of the rest of the UK become more competitive. Long-term investments in plant, equipment, training and infrastructure make sense again.
As a bonus, London would be able to turn the funds no longer needed for transfer payments toward improving its own competitiveness by investing in public works, research and development, and educating its citizens.
As an American living in Britain for more years than I care to remember, I find it ironic, but somehow a bit cheering, that another American should be the person who best sums up the reasons for the UK remaining in the EU.
It's not a happy choice, but it's a lot happier than the alternative.
It's not a happy choice, but it's a lot happier than the alternative.
18
Let us not forget that all this dysfunctional rhetoric about the EU is being promoted and used by The Financial Services Industry and Russian money laundering front who promote trickle-down economics while Dobby (Mr. Putin's nicknmae) in the Kremlin applauds the whole chaotic media fervor. and uses it it all to his advantage - divide and conquer. So very sad it too a brainless skinhead to "lay the body of (Jo Cox) on the table" before even the international markets responded with a rebound. What a sad day for the Hunman Zoo (courtesy of Sir Desmond Morris).
1
Krugman nailed most of the important themes. But their is one fantasy that of resolute independence that has been left out. With all this talk of hype no nation has fallen under the US perjurious hype and malfeasance when it comes to an independent foreign policy How many British citizens have lost their lives in the continuous wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, the middle east and even Africa. How much untold treasure has been lost in supporting the immoral US policies. And now they are worried about their independence sacrificed by remain in in the European Union. This is laughable...And Britain cannot undo what Thatcher easily wrung out the British working class. It is up to Britain to teach democracy to the rest of Europe. Bot flee.
3
The fact that the EU gave Cameron nothing when a little give would have provided him with a much stronger position should indicate that the EU is fully resistant to reforms. The real issue, which you mention is passing is the overweening arrogance of Germany, a country that tries to put financial misadventure in Greece in a position of moral equivalence with Germany's record between 1933 and 1945.
Since German reunification, the functioning of the EU has become one akin to an organization that aims to provide "lebensraum" for the German economy at the expense of other members. Can the UK voter be blamed for wanting to take another path?
Since German reunification, the functioning of the EU has become one akin to an organization that aims to provide "lebensraum" for the German economy at the expense of other members. Can the UK voter be blamed for wanting to take another path?
2
And as written for the Editorial Beard -
Let's finally get it straight - if you put these two phrases:
Nr. 1 ''There is no argument that the European Union is a flawed institution.'
and
Nr.2 'Yet the E.U. is an extraordinary achievement, a voluntary union of nations whose histories include some of the bloodiest wars ever waged.'
- too close together - we have the problem that readers don't know what to think. Like -
if you perhaps had worded it like:
'The E.U. is an extraordinary achievement, a voluntary union of nations whose histories include some of the bloodiest wars ever waged and so the critique that it is 'a flawed institution.' -(like many 'institutions') is of lesser relevance - and as everybody knows -(also the NYT?) - that an 'institution of 28 member states with big differences in size,' always will have a very hard time to be 'functional' -
And what type of 'functional'?
As functional as Italy? -
Or as 'functional as Germany?
Or as completely dysfunctional as the United States?
And so the problem might lay in 'the construction' - and could the NYT -(as a very intelligent newspaper) perhaps tell it's reader that they might ask a little bit too much from an 'institution of 28 member states with big differences in size - if even an institution like The US is faaar more dysfunctional?
Let's finally get it straight - if you put these two phrases:
Nr. 1 ''There is no argument that the European Union is a flawed institution.'
and
Nr.2 'Yet the E.U. is an extraordinary achievement, a voluntary union of nations whose histories include some of the bloodiest wars ever waged.'
- too close together - we have the problem that readers don't know what to think. Like -
if you perhaps had worded it like:
'The E.U. is an extraordinary achievement, a voluntary union of nations whose histories include some of the bloodiest wars ever waged and so the critique that it is 'a flawed institution.' -(like many 'institutions') is of lesser relevance - and as everybody knows -(also the NYT?) - that an 'institution of 28 member states with big differences in size,' always will have a very hard time to be 'functional' -
And what type of 'functional'?
As functional as Italy? -
Or as 'functional as Germany?
Or as completely dysfunctional as the United States?
And so the problem might lay in 'the construction' - and could the NYT -(as a very intelligent newspaper) perhaps tell it's reader that they might ask a little bit too much from an 'institution of 28 member states with big differences in size - if even an institution like The US is faaar more dysfunctional?
2
It's a good article, and a fair weighing of goods and bads.
Myself, if it were up to me, I'd say stay. It's partly that I wouldn't want to be on the UKIP and flagrantly-racist side; partly that I suspect Scotland would soon leave Great Britain; partly, it's that whole "enough with the world wars," thingie.
But a lot of the comments here also provide reason. Look at the loopy, fact-allergic, often illiterate scrawlings: one-worldism is the culprit! Obama did this when he ruined our economy! Enough with the furriners! South Korea is doing great! We must preserve our native tongue! We have to get away from Kontinental Kommunism! The French are lazy! Krugman knows nothing about economics, send for my free book!
And the worst part? There's a genuine debate to be had, here, and reasonable arguments on both sides--but nah, that's no funsies. So, the phantasmagoria.
Whatever, folks. I think you'll find that ignorance--and worse, willful ignorance that refuses to look at facts and reason or even the article--won't serve you well, but whatever.
Myself, if it were up to me, I'd say stay. It's partly that I wouldn't want to be on the UKIP and flagrantly-racist side; partly that I suspect Scotland would soon leave Great Britain; partly, it's that whole "enough with the world wars," thingie.
But a lot of the comments here also provide reason. Look at the loopy, fact-allergic, often illiterate scrawlings: one-worldism is the culprit! Obama did this when he ruined our economy! Enough with the furriners! South Korea is doing great! We must preserve our native tongue! We have to get away from Kontinental Kommunism! The French are lazy! Krugman knows nothing about economics, send for my free book!
And the worst part? There's a genuine debate to be had, here, and reasonable arguments on both sides--but nah, that's no funsies. So, the phantasmagoria.
Whatever, folks. I think you'll find that ignorance--and worse, willful ignorance that refuses to look at facts and reason or even the article--won't serve you well, but whatever.
5
Proper Brits, both blue collar and London elites, do not like the fact that Germany is clearly the economic powerhouse in Eurooe. So the response is "I'll take my ball & go home."
Good luck with that, you look smaller and less influential across the globe by regressing. Enjoy the distinct advantages you have, and carry on!
Good luck with that, you look smaller and less influential across the globe by regressing. Enjoy the distinct advantages you have, and carry on!
3
British “Remain.” I am surprised that wasn't immediately cast as “Bremain.” It’s like the first thing you think of. And it would also save us from having to pronounce two additional syllables.
3
Big Brother would have liked you. Go back to sleep now, we'll take care of the pronouncing. Relax and do as you're told.
2
From the beginning, Britain has been asking for all kinds of advantages to join the EU. They wanted to keep the advantages of the Commonwealth while getting access to the EU economy In French this is "manger a tous les rateliers"; in English: "have a finger in every pie". This is why on the Continent Brexit is not considered a big loss.
1
The fact that history repeats itself is more than a cliche -- it's a truism. Britain has never adjusted to losing the Empire and doesn't want to play if it can't be top dog. It refused to join the European Economic Community i.e. the Common Market in the 1950s. Then, in 1967, when it saw the success of the Common Market, it wanted in, but French President Charles DeGaulle adamantly refused. DeGaulle died in 1970, and Britain joined in 1973. the EEC eventually transformed into the EU, but Britain still can't make up its mind if it is part of Europe or not.
4
It's not the UK leaving that is the problem; it is Germany not changing.
Germany is dominated by a balanced-budget mindset harnessed to a mercantilist economic foreign policy. Germany's national obsession is to import euros when it should be exporting them. Germany's policy posture will eventually lead the eurozone to some sort of crackup.
As to the UK exit, most likely Brussels and London will cobble together some sort of "associate status" that may not be much different from the present on trade and economics. Brussels is good at fashioning up expediency and calling it policy. Look for a fast repeat.
But the problem of Germany will still be there, still strangling the aspirations of a generation of young people across Europe.
Germany is dominated by a balanced-budget mindset harnessed to a mercantilist economic foreign policy. Germany's national obsession is to import euros when it should be exporting them. Germany's policy posture will eventually lead the eurozone to some sort of crackup.
As to the UK exit, most likely Brussels and London will cobble together some sort of "associate status" that may not be much different from the present on trade and economics. Brussels is good at fashioning up expediency and calling it policy. Look for a fast repeat.
But the problem of Germany will still be there, still strangling the aspirations of a generation of young people across Europe.
13
Dear beloved United Kingdom--please beware of the apparently valid associations to neo-Nazi isolation, that appear to find a Brexit just what the country needs. I don't think so. Like the US, you must pay more careful attention to right wing extremists in your midst, and do what's right for the majority of your citizens. It's not a fear ridden game of "us vs them". If necessary you can break away, later, but this is not the time for that.
3
With all respect to the professor, the referendum must be about the popular will, not on the basis of views on Threadneedle Street ( Wall Street's City of London counterpart) or Wall Street or the impressively rich that hold office there ....The Common English/Cornish/Welsh/Scottish/Manx/Irish man will decide ...
6
Please, Brexiters, don't make hats that say "Make Britain Great Again".
5
Brexit, established directly under the authority the Queen.
Good counsel from a Nobel Prize winner in international trade economics!
4
I am not an economist or a financial expert. As a person belonging to the British Commonwealth, I think U.K. can more than compensate for any loss from exiting the EU by strengthening its trade and cultural relationships with its former colonies some of which are doing well and are projected to do even better in the future.
6
PK: "Nobody ever seems to acknowledge or learn from mistakes... a system that offers so little accountability,"
The EU should probably have remained the EC for another 75 years. That it became the EU was the desire of Brussel's bureaucrats to grow their power.
I've talked to Spanish profs I met at a conference. They all want to remain part of Europe so much that they remain part of the Eurozone despite the thrashing they've taken from it, yet they do complain about creeping loss of local sovereignty every time Brussels releases a directive.
The Bureaucrats are mismanaging everything on a gross scale. Greece, the and the peripheral economies & migrant crisis. Its a reminder of the same lesson that the city of Flint learned about democracy: "that its the worst form of government" to paraphrase Churchill, "except for all others." The "We Know Betters" in Lansing stripped Flint of control of their water supply under the pretext that Flint didn't know how to manage their own affairs & proceeded to poison the locals. All of this begs the question, why would you want to leave yourself vulnerable to unaccountable administrators? Sooner or later they'll screw the UK like they did the Portugese, Spanish, Greeks (& Flint). & no one gets fired.
Unable to vote the Bureaucrats out of office, the only choice is to vote to fire them altogether.
Europe needs a constitution that puts limits on Brussels & make it accountable. Only by UK leaving might they be shamed into a reckoning.
The EU should probably have remained the EC for another 75 years. That it became the EU was the desire of Brussel's bureaucrats to grow their power.
I've talked to Spanish profs I met at a conference. They all want to remain part of Europe so much that they remain part of the Eurozone despite the thrashing they've taken from it, yet they do complain about creeping loss of local sovereignty every time Brussels releases a directive.
The Bureaucrats are mismanaging everything on a gross scale. Greece, the and the peripheral economies & migrant crisis. Its a reminder of the same lesson that the city of Flint learned about democracy: "that its the worst form of government" to paraphrase Churchill, "except for all others." The "We Know Betters" in Lansing stripped Flint of control of their water supply under the pretext that Flint didn't know how to manage their own affairs & proceeded to poison the locals. All of this begs the question, why would you want to leave yourself vulnerable to unaccountable administrators? Sooner or later they'll screw the UK like they did the Portugese, Spanish, Greeks (& Flint). & no one gets fired.
Unable to vote the Bureaucrats out of office, the only choice is to vote to fire them altogether.
Europe needs a constitution that puts limits on Brussels & make it accountable. Only by UK leaving might they be shamed into a reckoning.
11
Here is a thought experiment: imagine abolishing the US military, and each state has to support the military in it's state with no Federal funding.
Now, let's get rid of the IRS. Each state has to expand local taxes - especially sales taxes - to cover what is left of the American military, Medicare and Medicaid.
Lastly, imagine that Medicare, like Medicaid, becomes a state program. Each state decides the extent of Medicare it's benefits and it is complicated - but not impossible - for a Medicare recipient to get care in another state. Add to this that there is no Federal funding for either Medicare or Medicaid: each state has to fund Medicare and Medicaid totally on it's own.
Imagine trying to govern the USA in such a situation. It is far too much 50 states and far too little a single nation. This is how America was under its first constitution during the Revolutionary War and until 1789.
Europe, including Great Britain, is experiencing the problems faced in America during that period. The 21st century European equivalents of Patrick Henry, Samuel Adams and George Mason are louder than the equivalents of Alexander Hamilton and James Madison.
If Britain exists the EU, the biggest winner will be China.
Now, let's get rid of the IRS. Each state has to expand local taxes - especially sales taxes - to cover what is left of the American military, Medicare and Medicaid.
Lastly, imagine that Medicare, like Medicaid, becomes a state program. Each state decides the extent of Medicare it's benefits and it is complicated - but not impossible - for a Medicare recipient to get care in another state. Add to this that there is no Federal funding for either Medicare or Medicaid: each state has to fund Medicare and Medicaid totally on it's own.
Imagine trying to govern the USA in such a situation. It is far too much 50 states and far too little a single nation. This is how America was under its first constitution during the Revolutionary War and until 1789.
Europe, including Great Britain, is experiencing the problems faced in America during that period. The 21st century European equivalents of Patrick Henry, Samuel Adams and George Mason are louder than the equivalents of Alexander Hamilton and James Madison.
If Britain exists the EU, the biggest winner will be China.
4
The Euro has been a disaster across the board, and Britain has been wise to stay out of the monetary union.
Before the Euro, if Greece or Italy teetered on the edge of financial disaster, their currency took a nosedive. This increased their competitiveness on the export market, and also drew in droves of tourists.
Nowadays, the Greek economy can be a disaster without offering any "bargains;" everything remains Euro-Expensive. This prevents any kind of natural economic recovery.
The EU has succeeded in its foremost task: Preventing Europeans form slaughtering each other by the tens of millions. But I'm not so sure the monetary union has been a good thing.
Before the Euro, if Greece or Italy teetered on the edge of financial disaster, their currency took a nosedive. This increased their competitiveness on the export market, and also drew in droves of tourists.
Nowadays, the Greek economy can be a disaster without offering any "bargains;" everything remains Euro-Expensive. This prevents any kind of natural economic recovery.
The EU has succeeded in its foremost task: Preventing Europeans form slaughtering each other by the tens of millions. But I'm not so sure the monetary union has been a good thing.
8
Bottom line -
This is a vote on racism - "imigration." "them, or us." Not economics. I have a number of friends and contacts in England, Scotland, Wales, and Ireland. Almost all are expressing horror at what transpired in Paris and Brussels and want to avoid the influx of "muslim extremists." Yet they make the huge mistake of lumping everyone else into the same catagory. So there is a bad tendancy to vote "on security" but what they are really voting on is to limit the number of people (who are outsiders) from accessing their public services.
Sad, but I am seeing the same racial tones in the US presidential race as well.
This is a vote on racism - "imigration." "them, or us." Not economics. I have a number of friends and contacts in England, Scotland, Wales, and Ireland. Almost all are expressing horror at what transpired in Paris and Brussels and want to avoid the influx of "muslim extremists." Yet they make the huge mistake of lumping everyone else into the same catagory. So there is a bad tendancy to vote "on security" but what they are really voting on is to limit the number of people (who are outsiders) from accessing their public services.
Sad, but I am seeing the same racial tones in the US presidential race as well.
4
The British thinking can be explained by an old English saying: ”There’s fog in the channel, the continent is isolated.”
4
I think Krugman's worry that a Go vote would serve as a sort of imprimatur for "racist nationalism" is justified - a prelude to too many levers pulled for Trump.
Given the tragic murder of a British MP yesterday and the decision by both sides of the Brexit campaign to suspend campaigning in light of that, The New York Times' decision to go ahead with publishing this Brexit-focused op-ed seems insensitive at best. Are there any editors on the opinion side who are actively monitoring the world news? Surely this op-ed could have waited to be published a day or two later, given the events that occurred yesterday in the UK.
4
Make no mistake - this is about immigration. The Brits are fed up with being overrun by Muslims and other immigrants. That's it in a nutshell.
5
Given that curry and Chinese food are now pretty much the official national foods of Great Britain, this is hilarious.
Only Britain seems to have the standing to show Germany that no one particularly likes German hegemony, except the Germans.
Brexit would make that point crystal clear -- then the problem of the Mediterranean economies rests even more with Berlin.
Brexit would make that point crystal clear -- then the problem of the Mediterranean economies rests even more with Berlin.
4
In my reply to Mark Jeffery Koch, I wrote Kristof rather than Krugman...A forgivable Freudian slip, I trust!
2
You can't fix much from the outside. Instead of complaining about the EU, why don't the UK and the US gang up on leaders of the EU and work to reform it? I'd vote to REMAIN, and try to make some kind of difference, in the future. The UK is powerful enough to say NO to the EU, when they take the wrong path, but not if they don't belong.
1
The EU parliament is immense and filled with failed politicians from all over the EU zone.
4
This has little to do with finances, it's about the right to govern Britain. ..... It's like the US voting whether to allow Mexico to make the laws of the US or not.
7
Mr. Krugman, I appreciate your lucid columns on economic matters and have been waiting for one on Puerto Rico. Could you give us an analysis of what the situation is there? There seems to be so little coverage in the NY Times. I realize that the events here in the US and those in Europe have a huge impact around the world, nevertheless, I would still like to know what happened and is happening in PR.
1
The EU worked great at first. Open borders shared markets. But time has changed all of that. With the 2008 banking debacle and Germany's obsession with austerity and punishing Greece for having its banks being taken to the cleaners by Goldman Sacs inspired corrupt Greek politicians. Leaving countries stagnating. One is left with a massive tide of refugees from the worlds failed states. Including Ukraine's dream of being a member. Brexit is a response to the sinking of the European experiment of solidarity in peace and democracy. The fears of economic decline and the British somehow figuring a way out of the mess by going it alone has the feel of am act of desperation.
8
But what will the effects on Brexit be on the US? Wall Street seems to think they will be severe, but nobody explains this. Is it just casino nerves?
Oh, I get it. When you call yourself a Liberal you're using the word in its British sense: a believer in unfettered markets.
Your fear that a Brexit would cause Britain's 1% (the financial industry) to lose a little income, and your dismissal of the idea there would be any value in INCREASING incomes in Britain's post-industrial north, place you somewhere between Tyler Cowens and Greg Mankiw on the political spectrum.
Those northern cities didn't become de-industrialized by accident. And the City of London didn't become the wealthiest square mile on earth by accident either. The City sold the cities down the river to increase its own profits.
I'd say a little payback would be a good thing.
Your fear that a Brexit would cause Britain's 1% (the financial industry) to lose a little income, and your dismissal of the idea there would be any value in INCREASING incomes in Britain's post-industrial north, place you somewhere between Tyler Cowens and Greg Mankiw on the political spectrum.
Those northern cities didn't become de-industrialized by accident. And the City of London didn't become the wealthiest square mile on earth by accident either. The City sold the cities down the river to increase its own profits.
I'd say a little payback would be a good thing.
10
Britain can certainly sign a bunch of their own treaties and CHOOSE to take what they have found works and discard what doesn't. This article is just fear mongering.
5
Eu hurts the poorest not the elite , it makes them , the elite more wealthy , Tony Blair has become a multi millionaire off the back of large corporates who fill the lobby floor in the Brussels ivory towers , when "Dave" goes the same will happen , the large corporates and Corporate Brussels will make him staggeringly wealthy.
im a Tory but feel betrayed by DC , who promised so much in his Bloomberg speech and actually got his backside kicked by Mercle / Hollande and the Unelected Eu Presidents , then turned to the uk electorate and said what a great deal he had got ! total codswallop Mr Cameron !!!
This is why the UK are cynical to the overtures of establishment politicians and Eu funded corporate economists.
im a Tory but feel betrayed by DC , who promised so much in his Bloomberg speech and actually got his backside kicked by Mercle / Hollande and the Unelected Eu Presidents , then turned to the uk electorate and said what a great deal he had got ! total codswallop Mr Cameron !!!
This is why the UK are cynical to the overtures of establishment politicians and Eu funded corporate economists.
6
Not a word on Hillary? Your idol. And no bashing Bernie in this column? you do know his older brother Larry sanders lives in UK and ran unsuccessfully for the Green Party there. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Sanders_(politician)
5
At the end of the day, it comes down to who is running the show? Tying yourself to a bunch of knuckleheads just doesn't make sense. They survived for hundreds of years on their own - I am sure they can do it again.
10
"Britain would end up about two percent poorer than it would otherwise be, essentially forever. That’s a big hit."
Anybody know how that 2% would be distributed? Would it be uniform? All come off the top earners? Bottom earners?
Anybody know how that 2% would be distributed? Would it be uniform? All come off the top earners? Bottom earners?
4
Let me first say that I believe Britain should remain.
Nevertheless, populations of various developed democratic nation-states are expressing frustration, in slightly differing manifestations, that neither they nor their country matter any more. The fact that the target of their ire is misdirected, at immigrants, or even bureaucracies, is lamentable but pitiable.
Most people don't really understand how things got to be the way they are, namely, the complete usurpation of political power by moneyed interests, particularly corporations and the powerful groups they form.
Nevertheless, populations of various developed democratic nation-states are expressing frustration, in slightly differing manifestations, that neither they nor their country matter any more. The fact that the target of their ire is misdirected, at immigrants, or even bureaucracies, is lamentable but pitiable.
Most people don't really understand how things got to be the way they are, namely, the complete usurpation of political power by moneyed interests, particularly corporations and the powerful groups they form.
2
My thoughts exactly Professor.
Unimpressively on facebook, I have been saying the answer is : Stay, but get involved.
The Euro-sceptics in the Conservative Party have "understandable reasons" for wanting to leave. But like America, the Brits, and the English in particular, get it right when they have exhausted all other possibilities.
The hard-core Euro-sceptic Tories need to get involved in Euro governance and put their weight where it is required. Their Anglo Anglican practicality is THE perfect counterbalance to Saxon Catholic moralism and the exact counterpoint to excessive pay-for-your-sins approaches to economics. The English Upper Classes know how to eat their cake and have it too.
Who can forget all those times when the German inflation rate exceeded Euro area targets, while the Germans got away "scot"-free (pun intended) from paying their fines. Not so fast with the Brits around.
The answer is : STAY BUT GET IT RIGHT.
( Would the voters settle for a "Leave but get it right" deal ? Their/Our government(s) should always get it right, no matter whom we choose. )
I'm betting there's nothing to worry about. I just hope the vote is not too close, a 10% margin is too little but will suffice.
Let's also hope there are no more nut-cases who harm their MPs. It's sad how a happy family was destroyed by one man with a knife and a gun.
Unimpressively on facebook, I have been saying the answer is : Stay, but get involved.
The Euro-sceptics in the Conservative Party have "understandable reasons" for wanting to leave. But like America, the Brits, and the English in particular, get it right when they have exhausted all other possibilities.
The hard-core Euro-sceptic Tories need to get involved in Euro governance and put their weight where it is required. Their Anglo Anglican practicality is THE perfect counterbalance to Saxon Catholic moralism and the exact counterpoint to excessive pay-for-your-sins approaches to economics. The English Upper Classes know how to eat their cake and have it too.
Who can forget all those times when the German inflation rate exceeded Euro area targets, while the Germans got away "scot"-free (pun intended) from paying their fines. Not so fast with the Brits around.
The answer is : STAY BUT GET IT RIGHT.
( Would the voters settle for a "Leave but get it right" deal ? Their/Our government(s) should always get it right, no matter whom we choose. )
I'm betting there's nothing to worry about. I just hope the vote is not too close, a 10% margin is too little but will suffice.
Let's also hope there are no more nut-cases who harm their MPs. It's sad how a happy family was destroyed by one man with a knife and a gun.
31
"Unimpressively on facebook, I have been saying the answer is : Stay, but get involved."
72 Times the UK haves voted on legislation in the EU and 72 times they have been voted down
The EU is irreformable.......get out
72 Times the UK haves voted on legislation in the EU and 72 times they have been voted down
The EU is irreformable.......get out
6
Interesting that PK offers no economic analysis; that the IMF chief Lagarde has been shouting about Brexit risks for two months providing no details; and, as of today, the IMF has just put off releasing its economic analysis.
Maybe the impact is negative on the economic elite but not on others. I dunno. Show us the economic analysis Paul, if you have one.
Maybe the impact is negative on the economic elite but not on others. I dunno. Show us the economic analysis Paul, if you have one.
5
"Brexit would probably mean a weaker pound, which might actually help some of the old manufacturing regions of the north."
In theory, yes, but the problem with the standard "weak pound, cheaper exports" model is that UK manufacturers rely on components and plant and tooling from the EU, particularly Germany, and a cratering pound sets up a supply chain crisis.
That's tangential to how the UK economy exports more services than goods, and the treaty regime is a lot less liberalized for services than goods.
In theory, yes, but the problem with the standard "weak pound, cheaper exports" model is that UK manufacturers rely on components and plant and tooling from the EU, particularly Germany, and a cratering pound sets up a supply chain crisis.
That's tangential to how the UK economy exports more services than goods, and the treaty regime is a lot less liberalized for services than goods.
1
Leave or stay, the only certain thing is that the actual execution will be manipulated into a form that solely benefits the wealthy. I predict an end result that brings further easing of capital restrictions for the plutocrats, and more austerity for the masses; and so the pressure will build toward the creation of Europe's next instance of notable history.
3
Historically, Britain did just fine being disconnected from the rest of Europe. And while the benefits on paper of a European union are there for all to see, there is something patently obnoxious about how Germany has been running the show. For all intents and purposes, Germany might just as well have won the Second World War. Germany would do well to remember that its economic infrastructure was pretty much completely rebuilt by the Allies.
5
The reasons Krugman outlines for rejecting the E.U. far outweigh the negatives for Britain, in my opinion. Of course, I'm not a Lobel laureate. At least, the U.K. kept its own currency and if it exits the E.U. it can possibly control its border entry. The policy of free entry of people from everywhere doesn't work unless a country wants to become Muslim majority. If that's what they want, then maybe the U.S. can see the results from afar and try not to make the same mistake.
2
Uniting disunited nations is obviously very difficult. In this country, most of our national politics actually revolves around regional differences in local economies disguised as ideological battles. If we could lessen our tribe to tribe conflicts and agree on living with economic disruptions, we would have a rather peaceful, cooperative nation. Instead, what we see is individual regions or states, like Texas, trying to have it both ways: on the things they seek, they want their own way, on the things we can supply, they will mute their otherwise constant criticism.
So, in Europe there is a collection of nations with different languages and distinctly different cultures trying to pretend, for the sake of economic advancement, that they are one entity. 230 yrs. after the creation of our national constitution we are still working on that project. Indeed, the nasty character of political battles here have taken on the aspects of a do or die contest, a fight to the death, although no region of the nation can claim to be greatly suffering because of the American "experiment". If we had a Brexit vote here, a simple majority in some regions would be a close vote. We, ourselves, the "United" states of America, are showing signs of approaching dissolution.
The open borders aspect of the EU is a thorny problem. An immigrant gets into one nation and the doors are open to all, just when terrorism and the refugee crisis reach a troublesome peak. The UK will likely vote to...leave.
So, in Europe there is a collection of nations with different languages and distinctly different cultures trying to pretend, for the sake of economic advancement, that they are one entity. 230 yrs. after the creation of our national constitution we are still working on that project. Indeed, the nasty character of political battles here have taken on the aspects of a do or die contest, a fight to the death, although no region of the nation can claim to be greatly suffering because of the American "experiment". If we had a Brexit vote here, a simple majority in some regions would be a close vote. We, ourselves, the "United" states of America, are showing signs of approaching dissolution.
The open borders aspect of the EU is a thorny problem. An immigrant gets into one nation and the doors are open to all, just when terrorism and the refugee crisis reach a troublesome peak. The UK will likely vote to...leave.
2
Too bad for the City of London! Britain's counterpart of Wall Street can go pound gold! Many think it would be a good thing for both these rapacious sectors to take it in the shorts after getting a very short haircut.
On another note, it's interesting Prof. Krugman is willing to show equanimity in the Solomon-like choice Brexit presents, when for the last 6 months he's been arrogant and sure about his choice for Clinton without any humility: no doubt, no reflection, no demureness. This just makes me think his political campaign for Clinton was even more journalistically debased than it appeared at the time.
On another note, it's interesting Prof. Krugman is willing to show equanimity in the Solomon-like choice Brexit presents, when for the last 6 months he's been arrogant and sure about his choice for Clinton without any humility: no doubt, no reflection, no demureness. This just makes me think his political campaign for Clinton was even more journalistically debased than it appeared at the time.
6
As I always thought would happen, the idea of a common market has morphed into the notion of a kind of United States of Europe, with its capital in Brussels and run by un-elected bureaucrats.
Given its 2,000 year old history, this simply will not happen in Europe. It is a political impossibility.
Given its 2,000 year old history, this simply will not happen in Europe. It is a political impossibility.
4
I don't get to read the whole thing this morning, but I see the concerns. Worst, I fear, is the prospect of shock leading to recession in the U.S. You do not have to be any kind of economist to know that recessions come on unexpectedly and are often triggered by a single event, and that doesn't have to be as clearly causative as the 2008 shock. Any shock will do after a long period since the last recession.
In the present case, that's simply a long period: approximately 8 years, not even including some booming bubble ready to burst. It's simply been a long time in recession-cycle terms.
Damn! All I have time for. I was going to mention Germany, etc. Good bye.
In the present case, that's simply a long period: approximately 8 years, not even including some booming bubble ready to burst. It's simply been a long time in recession-cycle terms.
Damn! All I have time for. I was going to mention Germany, etc. Good bye.
1
When I read the comments in the reputable UK newspapers, many Brits seem to believe that, should they leave, everything would be business as usual. But, they let the emotion of, once again, Britain will have economic in dependence get the best of them.
But, that's all nonsense. Sure, Iceland and Switzerland each have their special situations; however, they pay a hefty price by being a non-member participant in EU trade. Nations transact a sizable amount of their trade with neighbors. The US's neighbors--Canada and Mexico--are its two largest trading partners. UK, similarly, does with its EU neighbors.
Separate trade agreements would be required with each EU member nation, and tariffs and border check-points would ensue. And let's face it, if the EU made leaving easier--and why would it--what would then be the advantage of membership? And a BREXIT would certainly lead to other countries leaving, as well!
https://thetruthoncommonsense.com
But, that's all nonsense. Sure, Iceland and Switzerland each have their special situations; however, they pay a hefty price by being a non-member participant in EU trade. Nations transact a sizable amount of their trade with neighbors. The US's neighbors--Canada and Mexico--are its two largest trading partners. UK, similarly, does with its EU neighbors.
Separate trade agreements would be required with each EU member nation, and tariffs and border check-points would ensue. And let's face it, if the EU made leaving easier--and why would it--what would then be the advantage of membership? And a BREXIT would certainly lead to other countries leaving, as well!
https://thetruthoncommonsense.com
The British deserve to be poor. And the Scots need to be independent. Wales too. The sun is setting on the Teutonic twits.
3
Always good to read a Mel Brooks ref, even edited, but, well, "Teutonic," refers to, well, like, Germany.
2
How very interesting that the author notes the EU unelected bureaucrats "...never learn from their mistakes...". That indictment applies to the author's fellow travelers in the so-called progressive crowd - a misnomer if ever there was one as under their regime, there is no "progress", but rather failure at every turn. Witness their accomplishments these last seven years: a metastatic Islamic terror apparatus, increasing urban violence, widening racial schisms, a hemorrhaging of middle class jobs, a laughable immigration program, if one can call idiocy a "program", and the creation of trumpism. This is the progressive legacy. Would the author admit these failures of his champions? What? And descend from his mount after having just given us a sermon?? Fat chance.
1
Your list sounds like mostly right wing creations to me.
"Unfortunately, this vote is a choice between bad and worse — and the question is which is which."
Sort of like our upcoming presidential election.
Sort of like our upcoming presidential election.
1
Brexit is WW III, Germany against England.
England does not want to be ruled by Germany. Other Europeans cared not in the past, they do not care now.
Brexit for sure.
England does not want to be ruled by Germany. Other Europeans cared not in the past, they do not care now.
Brexit for sure.
Sometimes you can be slowly strangled to death or leap off the cliff. I think GB is going to leap and I don't blame them. People have divorces and it's really bad for 5 years, but it ends as the kids grow up, the hurt of separation ends, you start doing things that give you great satisfaction. You can also look at Iceland who went it alone on banking. If Greece had its own currency two years, most of their problems would be over today. Nothing is getting better in Europe, GB sees it and they have minimal power to change it. Take the leap.
34
Dean,
The USA is the biggest obstacle to globalism. It is in the USA where me Me Firstism dominates the political discussion and it dominates both sides of the aisle. Three decades of NAFTA have taught both Mexico and Canada that the senior partner always dominates.
The former head of PEN and a noted Canadian philosopher and historian John Ralston Saul lectures extensively on the collapse of globalism and how its the inability of the strong and powerful to control their desire for more wealth and more power that has doomed neoliberalism and globalism in their present incarnation.
Three decades of NAFTA have seen Mexico and Canada arrive at a point where they are ready to cut anchor and chart a course away from Big Brother and the Holding Company.
The USA is the biggest obstacle to globalism. It is in the USA where me Me Firstism dominates the political discussion and it dominates both sides of the aisle. Three decades of NAFTA have taught both Mexico and Canada that the senior partner always dominates.
The former head of PEN and a noted Canadian philosopher and historian John Ralston Saul lectures extensively on the collapse of globalism and how its the inability of the strong and powerful to control their desire for more wealth and more power that has doomed neoliberalism and globalism in their present incarnation.
Three decades of NAFTA have seen Mexico and Canada arrive at a point where they are ready to cut anchor and chart a course away from Big Brother and the Holding Company.
2
"So I’d vote Remain. There would be no joy in that vote. "
Economics really is the dismal science.
Economics really is the dismal science.
6
Brits may be thinking that Germany lost the war and won the peace. With the help of corrupt governments in client countries. They may be right.
1
The referendum has become a vote on the imbalance between unequal outcomes and equality of opportunity, and the Prime Minister and his referendum have become a lightning rod of that imbalance. The Prime Minister was trapped by a lie that exposed him to this deeper problem. The lie is that his government can control levels of migration, they can't. So why would those that feel their life chances have been diminished believe and trust him to deal with the economic and social pressures that are bearing down on them?
A number of powerful arguments in support of leaving the EU have sprouted supported by deeply entrenched problems, namely, that the fruits of globalization and technological disruption have been enjoyed by the few and not the many, that the monetary response to the financial crisis (QE) has benefitted the owners of capital and property at the expense of those that sell their labour and must rent, and the tools of social justice to improve the UK's appallingly poor record of inter-generational mobility are failing.
People leaning to Leave resent the argument that they are 'racist' or 'backward looking', their motivation is much more complex, rooted in trends a generation in the making. The anti-immigrant sentiment by itself would at best deliver 35-40% of the vote needed to leave -- as it would in any country -- the rest will come from those that deeply feel that they've been sacrificed by an elite that really thinks people are poor mostly by own choice.
A number of powerful arguments in support of leaving the EU have sprouted supported by deeply entrenched problems, namely, that the fruits of globalization and technological disruption have been enjoyed by the few and not the many, that the monetary response to the financial crisis (QE) has benefitted the owners of capital and property at the expense of those that sell their labour and must rent, and the tools of social justice to improve the UK's appallingly poor record of inter-generational mobility are failing.
People leaning to Leave resent the argument that they are 'racist' or 'backward looking', their motivation is much more complex, rooted in trends a generation in the making. The anti-immigrant sentiment by itself would at best deliver 35-40% of the vote needed to leave -- as it would in any country -- the rest will come from those that deeply feel that they've been sacrificed by an elite that really thinks people are poor mostly by own choice.
4
It is pretty clear that many of the British and American people are fed up with the austerian, money-rises-to-the-top self-serving politics of the corporate and wealthy elites. Reagan-Thatcherism, and the callous neglect of people and society that goes with it, linger, stagnate, and cast a pall over the hopes, daily life and well being of middle- and working-class folks on both sides of the Atlantic.
Brett (and Trump) is bringing everything to a head. Krugman is spot on: "Unfortunately, this vote is a choice between bad and worse — and the question is which is which." Also see: http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/the-economic-arguments-agains...
The cultural immigration/migration issue is clouding everything on both sides of the Atlantic.
My worry is that people in Britain and the U.S. are so fed up and hot-under-the collar with economics and politics as usual, they will vote to change things by exiting the EU or by voting for Trump, when—given the doubts, uncertainty, and risks, it would be more prudent to vote for stability.
Brett (and Trump) is bringing everything to a head. Krugman is spot on: "Unfortunately, this vote is a choice between bad and worse — and the question is which is which." Also see: http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/the-economic-arguments-agains...
The cultural immigration/migration issue is clouding everything on both sides of the Atlantic.
My worry is that people in Britain and the U.S. are so fed up and hot-under-the collar with economics and politics as usual, they will vote to change things by exiting the EU or by voting for Trump, when—given the doubts, uncertainty, and risks, it would be more prudent to vote for stability.
3
I'm in the UK several times a year on business. Without Eastern European employees most hotels and many restaurants will have to close. Get real Britain!
4
And the British workers I had as colleagues would clock in at the time on the nose and when 5 pm came, the place would become deserted. Never mind that there were deadlines...just tell the customer to wait some more.
I was once at a shop where the clerk literally cut me off and told me that his shift was over and he was going to send another clerk over. So I had to start over the explanation.
I'm sorry. While this is not true of everyone, this was the predominant case of British workers. In this situation, the British economy is going to be killed by the Chinese and Indian workers....
I was once at a shop where the clerk literally cut me off and told me that his shift was over and he was going to send another clerk over. So I had to start over the explanation.
I'm sorry. While this is not true of everyone, this was the predominant case of British workers. In this situation, the British economy is going to be killed by the Chinese and Indian workers....
Who wouldn't trade a 2% cut in GDP for autonomy?
4
Call me a cynic, call me a sceptic, but when bankers, politicians and economists all tell me to go one way I run in the opposite direction.
2
They would lose as much but they will get bailed out. In the crash of 2008/9, it was not that they were not facing losses (they were facing massive losses - but they got bailed out, just not the average worker). So what they are saying is not necessarily bad advice (and chances are that if things really do go pear-shaped, they will once again get bailed out and the little people will be left to deal with the 'bumps' as michael Gove put it).
What Paul Krugman fails to appreciate is the issue of national identify and right to establish a future independent of deeply dysfunctional EU. It is possible that the economic consequences will be as Krugman predicts. However, it is also possible that a freed UK will have greater options for monetary policy, labor laws, and potentially is a stronger political influence over the region. Status quo is almost always desirable as it is predictable and the markets and politicians favor this scenario. I would not count Britain out were it vote to leave
4
As an American educated at the graduate school level in the UK and married (because of that sojourn) to an Italian national, I'm disheartened to see the UK inch towards disentangling itself from the EU.
Oddly, I went to the UK because of its immense internationalism and multiculturalism. To me, it's not Brexit that's the concern. It's, as PK intuits, the aftermath - fascism, whether captured by the murder of Jo Cox or the ravings of Britain First cultists, won't be just content with Brexit. What is the next step of UKIP, Britain First, et al? It's to snuff out, incrementally, the world-leading multiculturalism that makes the UK special, and that's, despite enclaves of pure whiteness in places like Essex, steadily pouring forth into broader UK, making it palatable to those of us who like a little color and dynamism in our surroundings.
If Brexit happens, I wouldn't recommend the UK to any aspiring US graduate student. Why hitch your boat to a place that will most certainly become less dynamic and international over time, and perhaps much more Trumpian?
Oddly, I went to the UK because of its immense internationalism and multiculturalism. To me, it's not Brexit that's the concern. It's, as PK intuits, the aftermath - fascism, whether captured by the murder of Jo Cox or the ravings of Britain First cultists, won't be just content with Brexit. What is the next step of UKIP, Britain First, et al? It's to snuff out, incrementally, the world-leading multiculturalism that makes the UK special, and that's, despite enclaves of pure whiteness in places like Essex, steadily pouring forth into broader UK, making it palatable to those of us who like a little color and dynamism in our surroundings.
If Brexit happens, I wouldn't recommend the UK to any aspiring US graduate student. Why hitch your boat to a place that will most certainly become less dynamic and international over time, and perhaps much more Trumpian?
69
I agree with Mr. Mues. The countries who embrace multiculturalism are the countries incubating the capacity to thrive in a much more tightly connected, smaller world. Until now the U.K. has been one of the most dynamic nations BECAUSE of its sophisticated magpie absorption of elements from other cultures. The U.S. has been similarly successful for a similar reason, although its limited grasp of the nuances of other nations' histories still leaves something to be desired.
Those who engage in the world reciprocally thrive. Those who yearn for homogeneity need look no further than Japan for a real-time demonstration of the results: slow stagnation.
Those who engage in the world reciprocally thrive. Those who yearn for homogeneity need look no further than Japan for a real-time demonstration of the results: slow stagnation.
2
Why do you hold that membership in the EU narrowly ==> the only way out against fascism? Isn't this a conveniently simplistic reduction?
I can easily see where nations want more self-determination without wanting to become Germany circa 1933. There is after all a spectrum.
It seems to me it's rather the inability of our elites to find gradients of common sense around a middle ground re issues like immigration that incites some of the right-wing populism we see.
I can easily see where nations want more self-determination without wanting to become Germany circa 1933. There is after all a spectrum.
It seems to me it's rather the inability of our elites to find gradients of common sense around a middle ground re issues like immigration that incites some of the right-wing populism we see.
2
Too bad it isn't Germany and EU in Brussels wanting to leave! Germany rules Europe and the EU commission in Brussels makes up stupid, politically correct but dangerous rules - 90% of the challenges by the UK and France to their rules fail so a lot of people don't agree with or don't like their stupid rules. Kosova is becoming an Islamic country. Its government wanted to limit the radical imams preaching but the EU said that wasn't possible so now Kosovo has mainly radical imams inciting violent jihad - how does that help? France was told all its cheese had to be pasteurized luckily France said ok we won't export our cheese and in that case the EU gave in. And on and on and on. As a European I want the UK to remain but if I was living in the UK as a Brit, I'd want out! It's the rules and Germany stupid. And no one gets a say. Fire all the bureaucrats in Brussels and stop the Empress of Europe, Angela Merkel, then the EU can work. The UK will be fine either way. I hope the UK stays in and becomes more forceful and takes on Germany. We need someone to stop Germany bullying Europe and the EU in Brussels making up rules that hurt countries and Europe. Europe definitely needs the UK more than the UK needs Europe. We need you UK! I hope that France will wake up and align itself more with the UK than with Germany. Germany needs France to make it look good but France's desire to be important shouldn't cloud what is best for Europe. We need a strong UK.
4
The UK exports more than 4 times what it imports. Renegotiating new trade agreements with current customers would surely be punitive to the UK to discourage more exits from the EU.
After joining the EU their economy improved markedly, so it is sensible to argue if they leave it would deteriorate.
But Brexit is not based on economics, but rather issues like immigration and sovereignty.
It parallels the rise of Trumpism here, appeals to passion over reason.
European countries outside of the EU trading bloc are still bound by European Free Movement requirements. Countries outside of the trading bloc like Switzerland and Norway have higher per capita populations of immigrants than the UK.
Further, it is widely understood skilled immigrants coming into the UK have been an economic benefit, as the percentage of prime age workers is falling around the world, including the US.
Why are these anti-fact, anti-intellectual populist movements rising around the world?
No person from either major political party supports the policies as *articulated* by Donald Trump.
They are a mishmash of nonsensical notions coming from his purportedly "good brain" that would be disastrous.
The best the party stooges in the GOP can say is that Donald will bend to their will post-election. LOL.
It is a wake up call to serious policymakers.
If they don't act, those that follow them sans knowledge or facts will act with disastrous consequences for humanity.
After joining the EU their economy improved markedly, so it is sensible to argue if they leave it would deteriorate.
But Brexit is not based on economics, but rather issues like immigration and sovereignty.
It parallels the rise of Trumpism here, appeals to passion over reason.
European countries outside of the EU trading bloc are still bound by European Free Movement requirements. Countries outside of the trading bloc like Switzerland and Norway have higher per capita populations of immigrants than the UK.
Further, it is widely understood skilled immigrants coming into the UK have been an economic benefit, as the percentage of prime age workers is falling around the world, including the US.
Why are these anti-fact, anti-intellectual populist movements rising around the world?
No person from either major political party supports the policies as *articulated* by Donald Trump.
They are a mishmash of nonsensical notions coming from his purportedly "good brain" that would be disastrous.
The best the party stooges in the GOP can say is that Donald will bend to their will post-election. LOL.
It is a wake up call to serious policymakers.
If they don't act, those that follow them sans knowledge or facts will act with disastrous consequences for humanity.
3
I illustrated the misuse of facts better than I hoped to in my ratio of exports to imports!
Let me just say the EU accounts for about half of the UK's trade which in total (exports + imports) is equal to about 60% of GDP.
Exports will be less competitive and imports will be more expensive after exiting the EU trade bloc, immigration is unlikely to be affected, so it is just about an England First sovereignty.
We hear the same thing from Donald here.
Let me just say the EU accounts for about half of the UK's trade which in total (exports + imports) is equal to about 60% of GDP.
Exports will be less competitive and imports will be more expensive after exiting the EU trade bloc, immigration is unlikely to be affected, so it is just about an England First sovereignty.
We hear the same thing from Donald here.
Well, Dr. K, I hope that many Britons read your piece and are influenced by it to vote to Remain.
It is striking - and depressing - how little (no, the absence of) discussion of what a terrible idea austerity was in the aftermath of the financial crisis. As I've said before, through the euro, Germany achieved through banking what it failed to do by force of arms in WWII - effective rule Western Europe. (I still think Greece should have pulled out, & damn the consequences. They'd be better off today.)
And yet - the European project has had the intended effect of greater integration, and a long period of peace in a formerly eternally warring continent. If only they could somehow fix the single currency problems, or fix the problems that come with it (I'm looking at you, Germany!).
It is striking - and depressing - how little (no, the absence of) discussion of what a terrible idea austerity was in the aftermath of the financial crisis. As I've said before, through the euro, Germany achieved through banking what it failed to do by force of arms in WWII - effective rule Western Europe. (I still think Greece should have pulled out, & damn the consequences. They'd be better off today.)
And yet - the European project has had the intended effect of greater integration, and a long period of peace in a formerly eternally warring continent. If only they could somehow fix the single currency problems, or fix the problems that come with it (I'm looking at you, Germany!).
Germany’s insistence on turning the crisis the single currency wrought into a morality play of sins (by other people, of course)
Is it just me or has Germany been one of if not the main cause of conflict in Europe and the world for the last 100 years?
Is it just me or has Germany been one of if not the main cause of conflict in Europe and the world for the last 100 years?
3
Absent from coverage is reference to how a vote to pass Brexit benefits Russia. Also absent is asking questions whether Soviet-style disinformation plays a role favoring an exit from the EU -- the goal being divide and conquer.
2
"Germany’s insistence on turning the crisis of the single currency ... into a morality play" Europe's "sins" are a zero sum game. If Greece and the other deadbeat members of the EU can screw over the creditor members, then what responsible nation would want to belong to such an organization?
2
Britain can leave the EU, but it can't leave Europe. That is geographically impossible. In the past, Europe's troubles have come to Britain despite its best attempts to stay clear of them (think the 1930s). Doesn't it make more sense to stay involved and to try to fix the EU rather than to declare you are leaving, but then find you really can't?
93
O. M. G.! I hear echos of Adam Smith, and the perenneally partisan squabble between the Democrats and Republicans. Even accomplished-economists, like Professor K, still have trouble grasping the much convoluted principles of Vector Functions of Vector Variables -- Gradient, Divergence, and Curl and all that.
Good luck, Brits.
Good luck, Brits.
Governments and economists clearly see globalization and immigration as a positive.
For the average person who has lost their job to offshoring, or who now lives next door to a home used as a boarding house for dozens of immigrants receiving benefits, that person doesn't see anything positive, and sees a government that doesn't care one bit.
Here in the US it's given us Trump, and led to push back in the EU as well.
This mismatch simply hasn't been addressed by anyone in office. Token job training programs and cheap imports are no longer working.
For the average person who has lost their job to offshoring, or who now lives next door to a home used as a boarding house for dozens of immigrants receiving benefits, that person doesn't see anything positive, and sees a government that doesn't care one bit.
Here in the US it's given us Trump, and led to push back in the EU as well.
This mismatch simply hasn't been addressed by anyone in office. Token job training programs and cheap imports are no longer working.
2
A vote for Brexit is a vote for deglobalization, considering how poorly globalization has worked for the majority of us Europe should return in its entirety to its original status. Europe was special, countries had their own identities and character, strengths and weaknesses and above all their own sovereignty. In their attempt to emulate The American success story they came in at the tail end of both our success stories, globalization has managed to crush much of their working class as well as our own. A reset may save Britain just as a new beginning with Bernie might have saved ours, in either case what is desperately obvious is that dramatic change is needed, the British, indeed the developed countries of Europe as well, have been burdened with the results of globalization that have managed to destroy the middle class and the quality of life for those people are forced to share the fruits of their labor with the globalized citizens,(the debt has been socialized)as the elites make off with the privatized profit.
2
A matter strictly up to the British people. My guess is to most their pending decision, will not be made around data being marketed by Central Bankers, big private Banks, big corporations, and outsiders.The EU is a experiment that is messed up. Point is this is not all about dollars and cent's as they say.
27
"So I’d vote Remain. There would be no joy in that vote. But a choice must be made, and that’s where I’d come down."
Just like the choice of remaining with the Democratic party.
Why is this blog so blind, dysfunctional EU, dysfunctional Dems, both serving the elites.
Just like the choice of remaining with the Democratic party.
Why is this blog so blind, dysfunctional EU, dysfunctional Dems, both serving the elites.
2
Finally, We have a benchmark: Britain's economy will decrease by more than two percent if they leave the EU. So if it decreases over the next two years, Krugman's analysis is right but if it increases his analysis is wrong and he like most economist does not have a clue.
Socrates found out to his chagrin that reason never dictated Democracies.
The masses elected Hitler in 1933, Dubya Bush in 2000, Harper in 2006, and will most probably Trump this year.
Politicians know well that in the eternal struggle for Survival, Growth, and Evolution – the first over-rides the latter two, fear motivates more than hope.
No matter how we may dislike it, bet on masses going for Brexit and Trump. Interesting times lie ahead.
The masses elected Hitler in 1933, Dubya Bush in 2000, Harper in 2006, and will most probably Trump this year.
Politicians know well that in the eternal struggle for Survival, Growth, and Evolution – the first over-rides the latter two, fear motivates more than hope.
No matter how we may dislike it, bet on masses going for Brexit and Trump. Interesting times lie ahead.
Kudos to Krugman: This is one of his most cogent and nuanced intellectual arguments, as opposed to so many of his columns... It even included a dose of intellectual humility. Wow.
One thing he said in passing that didn't make a lot of sense: "to deregulate and unleash the magic of markets, leading to explosive growth... it’s the same free-market fantasy that has always and everywhere proved delusional."
I don't quite follow how an economist would hold that deregulation "always" and "everywhere" proves "delusional", if one assumes a continuum between 100% state-owned assets and 100% market-owned assets.
Oh well, a bit of that old Krugman magic had to creep in, I guess.
One thing he said in passing that didn't make a lot of sense: "to deregulate and unleash the magic of markets, leading to explosive growth... it’s the same free-market fantasy that has always and everywhere proved delusional."
I don't quite follow how an economist would hold that deregulation "always" and "everywhere" proves "delusional", if one assumes a continuum between 100% state-owned assets and 100% market-owned assets.
Oh well, a bit of that old Krugman magic had to creep in, I guess.
Vladimir Putin must be at-risk of an aneurysm, he's laughing so hard.
Speaking of learning from mistakes (and we in America may be on the cusp of our own historically colossal error), Brexit or not, Europe is flirting with the fascism that produced 80+ million war deaths in the 20th century. If that's not a "lesson," then there's no such thing as learning.
It is true that Britain faces two unattractive options, stuck between the obtuseness of established European bureaucracy and the known dangers of right-wing revanchism. But Britons should make no mistake. It should cull from its own history the reality that fascism is the fallen angel of death. Exit from the EU will only feed the murderous beast.
Even if the UK forgets the Brown Shirts of the 1930s, the unspeakably brutal atrocity committed on MP Jo Cox by an allegedly Nazi acolyte should tell Britain all it needs to know.
www.endthemadnessnow.org
Speaking of learning from mistakes (and we in America may be on the cusp of our own historically colossal error), Brexit or not, Europe is flirting with the fascism that produced 80+ million war deaths in the 20th century. If that's not a "lesson," then there's no such thing as learning.
It is true that Britain faces two unattractive options, stuck between the obtuseness of established European bureaucracy and the known dangers of right-wing revanchism. But Britons should make no mistake. It should cull from its own history the reality that fascism is the fallen angel of death. Exit from the EU will only feed the murderous beast.
Even if the UK forgets the Brown Shirts of the 1930s, the unspeakably brutal atrocity committed on MP Jo Cox by an allegedly Nazi acolyte should tell Britain all it needs to know.
www.endthemadnessnow.org
2
I hope the people of the UK have the courage to vote LEAVE. Yes a Brexit is loathsome to the so-called "world order" and central banking system which is fragile and unstable, but these Central Bankers have ignored reforming their narrow and delusional neo-liberal policies and paradigms about currency and true macroeconomic growth for decades while having consolidated too much power to enforce their failing "Austerity" programs (that are killing growth) as they find people's democratic rights irrelevant and totally "inconvenient" to their "mandate" in their quest for "stability" in Europe, which has failed - while they seek access to emerging markets to tap into cash flows and potential rising rates of profit, while being long in debt from Emerging Markets is very risky, fragile and unstable, while Economic growth halted within the EU - Economic growth in the EU is dead precisely because of the rigid and inflexible and delusional neoliberal economic policies of EU and ECB and (indirectly the Fed who is a favored lender of overnight cooperate paper to the ECB) and this collusion has sadly led to a substantive destruction of democracy and a very fragile and unstable EU. Mr. Krugman, I disagree with you that Brexit is not the best choice, as when I put myself into the shoes of citizens of the UK, voting to LEAVE the EU is their best opportunity for restoring their democratic rights and there is no doubt their economy will prosper better outside the failed EU.
41
The UK has lead the charge at the EU for they very policies that you say should use as the reason to flee the EU. Without the opposition from other EU members the UK supported policies you rail against are more likely to be implemented in the UK.
Look at immigration, more than half the recent immigrants to the UK are not from EU member states, the UK has let them in unilaterally, there are almost as many Brits living in other EU members states as EU member folks living in the UK.
Also I am confused by the "delusional neoliberal policies" such as the "failing 'Austerity' programs" which I thought were conservative ideas.
Look at immigration, more than half the recent immigrants to the UK are not from EU member states, the UK has let them in unilaterally, there are almost as many Brits living in other EU members states as EU member folks living in the UK.
Also I am confused by the "delusional neoliberal policies" such as the "failing 'Austerity' programs" which I thought were conservative ideas.
"it would definitely hurt British trade with the rest of Europe"
It would definitely complicate that trade. Complication means hurt, it slows things down and gets in the way.
Over the longer term, they will develop work arounds and standard practices that will reduce the complication. Until then, it can only hurt.
The longer term argument is that the work arounds will be good enough, and they are the price for going outside the EU's stalled relations with some major trading partners. They expect advantages will be found in the wider world to more than offset whatever is the long term drawback of Brexit with the Continent.
I too support Remain, but not because I can calculate the net effect long term on the British economy. Nobody can. There is too much unknown and unknowable.
My reason is that Britain's wealth and prosperity, even safety, have always been dependent on its influence over events on the Continent. It once used the military balance of power and alliances for that end. That is no longer possible. All that remains is the political balance of power, and for that Britain must be at the table.
That exact point about being at the table to have influence is often made by the Norwegians and Swiss, two examples often used by Brexit. They should listen to their own examples. Britain as the 5th largest national economy in the world has a voice at the table the Swiss or Norwegians could never have even if inside, and they tell the British it is unwise to give that up.
It would definitely complicate that trade. Complication means hurt, it slows things down and gets in the way.
Over the longer term, they will develop work arounds and standard practices that will reduce the complication. Until then, it can only hurt.
The longer term argument is that the work arounds will be good enough, and they are the price for going outside the EU's stalled relations with some major trading partners. They expect advantages will be found in the wider world to more than offset whatever is the long term drawback of Brexit with the Continent.
I too support Remain, but not because I can calculate the net effect long term on the British economy. Nobody can. There is too much unknown and unknowable.
My reason is that Britain's wealth and prosperity, even safety, have always been dependent on its influence over events on the Continent. It once used the military balance of power and alliances for that end. That is no longer possible. All that remains is the political balance of power, and for that Britain must be at the table.
That exact point about being at the table to have influence is often made by the Norwegians and Swiss, two examples often used by Brexit. They should listen to their own examples. Britain as the 5th largest national economy in the world has a voice at the table the Swiss or Norwegians could never have even if inside, and they tell the British it is unwise to give that up.
1
The problem facing the United Kingdom and the E.U. right now may be the same type of thinking which we see around the world. Divisive politics have devalued compromise and forced people to see things as black or white, yes or no, stay or go.
Compromise is seen as a sign of weakness. Incremental change is portrayed as inferior.
There are, in fact, many things upon which people could agree. For example, a ‘Remain’ vote in Britain could be coupled with an irrevocable commitment to infuse significant money into infrastructure for the revitalization of old manufacturing centers in the north.
This is an unnecessary crisis.
Compromise is seen as a sign of weakness. Incremental change is portrayed as inferior.
There are, in fact, many things upon which people could agree. For example, a ‘Remain’ vote in Britain could be coupled with an irrevocable commitment to infuse significant money into infrastructure for the revitalization of old manufacturing centers in the north.
This is an unnecessary crisis.
1
Krugman is on the side of autocrats struggling to keep their dominion over the "great unwashed"? Who woulda thunk it?
This guy is constantly talking out of both sides of his mouth.
Here he laments what he projects as a 2% GDP decline as catastrophic; yet he still shills for a President who has averaged an abysmal 1.55% GDP growth over 7 years and will become the first Presdeint in history to never have a year of, still below average, 3% growth.
If a one time 2% dip is a catastrophe .... how much poorer are we for having suffered through Obama, Paul?
This guy is constantly talking out of both sides of his mouth.
Here he laments what he projects as a 2% GDP decline as catastrophic; yet he still shills for a President who has averaged an abysmal 1.55% GDP growth over 7 years and will become the first Presdeint in history to never have a year of, still below average, 3% growth.
If a one time 2% dip is a catastrophe .... how much poorer are we for having suffered through Obama, Paul?
2
JBen, your abundant angst is misdirected.
Had a Republican won in 2008 pr '12, we would have been deliberately plunged into a depression and all of it would have been blamed on Democrats overspending the budget, even though G.W. Bush had been in power for eight yrs. prior to '08. You attack professor Krugman, but have you been reading his columns? He has pointed out repeatedly that Obama's recovery program, priming the pump with govt. money, was cut short and was too small to start with, to a major degree because of the opposition of Republicans and the rise of "deficit hawks" in their ranks and Washington generally.
I don't claim to fully understand why the Republicans adore recessions (aside from the political gains for them), but the pattern of the last 60+ yrs. has been that the Dems overheat the economy and the Republicans come into office and slow it down (this pattern was reversed, somewhat, under G.W. Bush, who handed out middle class tax refunds near the start of his first term and who encouraged a Republican Congress to spend wildly in an attempt to retain power.)
With wages falling behind inflation, jobs being shipped massively to overseas locations, heavy manufacturing either being down or entirely out, and people buried in debt by credit cards and college loans, it is entirely possible we have entered a period of long term slow growth. That's a lot better than none and you can thank Obama for some of that progress. Do I hear an Amen?
Had a Republican won in 2008 pr '12, we would have been deliberately plunged into a depression and all of it would have been blamed on Democrats overspending the budget, even though G.W. Bush had been in power for eight yrs. prior to '08. You attack professor Krugman, but have you been reading his columns? He has pointed out repeatedly that Obama's recovery program, priming the pump with govt. money, was cut short and was too small to start with, to a major degree because of the opposition of Republicans and the rise of "deficit hawks" in their ranks and Washington generally.
I don't claim to fully understand why the Republicans adore recessions (aside from the political gains for them), but the pattern of the last 60+ yrs. has been that the Dems overheat the economy and the Republicans come into office and slow it down (this pattern was reversed, somewhat, under G.W. Bush, who handed out middle class tax refunds near the start of his first term and who encouraged a Republican Congress to spend wildly in an attempt to retain power.)
With wages falling behind inflation, jobs being shipped massively to overseas locations, heavy manufacturing either being down or entirely out, and people buried in debt by credit cards and college loans, it is entirely possible we have entered a period of long term slow growth. That's a lot better than none and you can thank Obama for some of that progress. Do I hear an Amen?
3
Obama has done extremely well with the economy, given the hand he was dealt.
1
the GOP adores recession because it benefits big business and the wealthy-- a built-in excuse to treat employees poorly and cut or gut social benefits; an easy way for the wealthy to scoop up assets on the cheap. No raise, or having to take on the work of someone let go? Suck it up-- you are oh so lucky. Let's say the local aquatics center has to cut its days open to 4, and it's hours to 5 per day. When you have your own pool or can belong to a gym, who cares? When you have a pension, or an inheritance, or have had the luxury of saving for your retirement you can look at all those dependent upon social security as inept losers who failed to plan for the future. That's their lens. It's really that simple.
1
What the British fail to take into account is that because of the EU there hasn't been a war in Europe in 60 years. Before the EU there was always a war going on somewhere in Europe involving Great Britain, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, and the "Low Countries." The end of European war itself is enough to stay in the EU.
1
ask Yugoslavia - no wait ...
2
This is somewhat analogous to free-trade and globalization: in the aggregate countries are better off economically as a result. However, at individual level it is very hard on some people, hence the anger and resentment some have towards free-trade.
Exiting the European Union may make Britain somewhat worse off in the aggregate but how many people would be made worse off at the individual level? If not many people feel like they've been made better off by joining the EU, they may feel like they have little to lose by voting to leave.
Exiting the European Union may make Britain somewhat worse off in the aggregate but how many people would be made worse off at the individual level? If not many people feel like they've been made better off by joining the EU, they may feel like they have little to lose by voting to leave.
1
Krugman's calculations? The same ones that have produced the worst economy in the past 8 years? Whatever Krugman thinks, do the opposite. The U.K. should leave. Why continue to remain a part of a sinking ship? Isn't the definition of insanity defined as doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Great nations lead. It's time for the U.K to lead, vote to leave and forge a new economic course.
1
I have to agree that it is a vote for bad or worse. The EU is a system that drags down the rich nations and makes the poor nations worse through lack of monetary control per nation, which Krugman has made clear. I do not see Britain leaving the union as a good idea either, but while Germany seems to be forcing strict monetary measures on the rest of Europe, why would Britain want to be a part of that type of union? There is no right answer, just a lot of wrongs.
If Krugman is for "Remain", then that is the best sign yet that the best option for the British people is to "Leave". It all comes down to national sovereignty. Does the UK want to make decisions for itself that are in its own best self-interest, or does it want a group of one-world-government bureaucrats and central bankers determining its future? One world government is what has created this global economic mess. It must be ended, and the UK leaving the EU is a good first step.
6
Usually I disagree with Mr. Krugman as we sit on the opposite side of the political spectrum.
However I couldn't agree more with his arguments expressed in the above's opinion piece. If I'd be Brit, perhaps I would vote "leave" however I would just consider it the lesser evil from the two option.
Ideal would be a reformed EU with less, clearer rules, more transparency and accountability. But this seems to be far,far away. As of now we have tons of rules but just for the smaller states, as Junker professed last week, "France can go away with ti because its France". So does Germany.
However I couldn't agree more with his arguments expressed in the above's opinion piece. If I'd be Brit, perhaps I would vote "leave" however I would just consider it the lesser evil from the two option.
Ideal would be a reformed EU with less, clearer rules, more transparency and accountability. But this seems to be far,far away. As of now we have tons of rules but just for the smaller states, as Junker professed last week, "France can go away with ti because its France". So does Germany.
Europe is a nation of many languages, several states, and one currency. Is it possible that Brexit would streamline the administration of the Continent?
1
For decades I have been railing at why politicians are adamant that all mistakes are made by others, not them. Why are there no university departments specializing in the analysis of past mistakes, how and why they happened and a methodology for avoiding any repetition? An insistence that false moves are always the fault of the political opposition harms everyone except the uber-wealthy. They can easily weather such storms. The average citizen is damaged if not devastated by persistent repetition of errors.
Arrogance compounded by ignorance hurts the bottom 90% of every nation.
Arrogance compounded by ignorance hurts the bottom 90% of every nation.
2
"If there’s any soul-searching in Brussels or Berlin about Europe’s terrible economic performance since 2008, it’s very hard to find." Same can be said - - although Krugman will never admit - about the lack of his soul-searching as well as the Obama administration's in Washington, DC. Take Dodd- Frank, for example; originally pegged for 12,000 pages - now at 29,000 and growing. Banks spending billions on compliance departments alone - well, I guess that fits the Krugman means of increasing employment opportunities - while ever restricting risk lending (essential to grow the economy). Thanks to Kugman and Obama the nation is experiencing the worst post WWII level of unemployment - when counting the 90 million who have given up - and slowest post recession growth in the nation's history.
Just like those bureaucrats in Brussels the Democrats have unleashed regulations and penalties certain to inhibit investment, hiring, and retaining US corporations (any that can will escape the highest corporate taxes in the industrialized world - will).
Forget Britain, the kettle is black here - and it belongs to Krugman and the Obama administration.
Just like those bureaucrats in Brussels the Democrats have unleashed regulations and penalties certain to inhibit investment, hiring, and retaining US corporations (any that can will escape the highest corporate taxes in the industrialized world - will).
Forget Britain, the kettle is black here - and it belongs to Krugman and the Obama administration.
1
So Mr. Krugman is now a seer? Are we to take as fact his "rough calculations" or are they more akin to reading tea leaves and in line with prognostications of astrologers? Does it matter than some in England wish English remain the native tongue? A recent study by the University of Munster highlighted some large differences between new immigrants to Germany and Germans.
http://www.uni-muenster.de/imperia/md/content/religion_und_politik/aktue...
and highlights what perhaps many in England are so stubborn about. Many in England are more worried about losing their national identity and culture. The country is England and if they want to speak English, make their own laws, and remain sovereign then they darn well have a right to do so. If they somehow have it in their minds that their culture, philosophy, and native tongue is something important and something they wish to preserve then I guess that is their right to decide. Shall we forgive those in England who don't keep care about the all-mighty Euro? Those sitting in Ivy Towers bellowing to the masses are no different than CEO's telling me I can't be happy without spending and having more. I choose to not judge my children by how much they make, I choose to love my children for who they are. Sometimes the best decisions are not always the ones that make financial sense.
http://www.uni-muenster.de/imperia/md/content/religion_und_politik/aktue...
and highlights what perhaps many in England are so stubborn about. Many in England are more worried about losing their national identity and culture. The country is England and if they want to speak English, make their own laws, and remain sovereign then they darn well have a right to do so. If they somehow have it in their minds that their culture, philosophy, and native tongue is something important and something they wish to preserve then I guess that is their right to decide. Shall we forgive those in England who don't keep care about the all-mighty Euro? Those sitting in Ivy Towers bellowing to the masses are no different than CEO's telling me I can't be happy without spending and having more. I choose to not judge my children by how much they make, I choose to love my children for who they are. Sometimes the best decisions are not always the ones that make financial sense.
6
There's a sense among the common people that the state of their world, and moreover their place in it is failing. This unease is everywhere I think. Brexit is the latest organized expression of which we'll see how it plays out over the next week. Apparently Jo Cox, a rising young woman, a first term Member of Parliament who was reported to be a genuine humanitarian suddenly died getting in the middle of two other men physically fighting over this vote next week. Yes, something's not quite right over there: anymore than here frankly.
We have another mass murder in Orlando this time to try a decipher. Was it really an act of terrorism inspired by foreign forces of evil, or was it the insane act of one man, who had ready access to an assault rifle and ammunition no questions asked at time of purchase to act out his morbid delusions of religiosity. Something has been going amiss for the past 16 years across the globe.
My sense is that we live in the beginning of an inevitable fall, like Rome as too much money (power) is concentrated in the few. There is a malignant neglect to include the many. That's the "Driver". All else is consequence.
We have another mass murder in Orlando this time to try a decipher. Was it really an act of terrorism inspired by foreign forces of evil, or was it the insane act of one man, who had ready access to an assault rifle and ammunition no questions asked at time of purchase to act out his morbid delusions of religiosity. Something has been going amiss for the past 16 years across the globe.
My sense is that we live in the beginning of an inevitable fall, like Rome as too much money (power) is concentrated in the few. There is a malignant neglect to include the many. That's the "Driver". All else is consequence.
5
The British were never asked if they wanted to be part of a political union with Europe. They were basically lied to by their politicians who denied for decades that this was the reality. Towards the end of her time in office Margaret Thatcher wanted to leave but she was replaced in a coup before she could do anything about it. Her hostility to the EU project led to her demise by euro zealots in the British establishment. This is not primarily about economics it is also about who runs Britain.
I am not convinced by the economic case either. Britain has to pay for another layer of government and lots of socialist regulation. Norman Lamont and Nigel Lawson who were fiance ministers under Thatcher have run the numbers and says Britain is worse off remaining in the EU. In return it gets to be part of a free trade area. Surely this would be possible without the loss of sovereignty? South Korea has a free trade agreement with the EU, why can't Britain?
I am not convinced by the economic case either. Britain has to pay for another layer of government and lots of socialist regulation. Norman Lamont and Nigel Lawson who were fiance ministers under Thatcher have run the numbers and says Britain is worse off remaining in the EU. In return it gets to be part of a free trade area. Surely this would be possible without the loss of sovereignty? South Korea has a free trade agreement with the EU, why can't Britain?
2
The marriage itself took place under false pretences, Mr.Heath explicitly told people that there was no question of surrendering even a tiny bit of sovereignity. It was packaged as an Economic Community, but turned out to be a part-political Union' something the voters in the 1974 EEC referendum never did envisage. The politicians took the common man for a goat & sold him a lie. Any upright, honest government would have annulled this unprincipled marriage, where the bride (Britain's) Liberty was eroded step-by-step. Divorce is the only prudent option.
6
Even if the original reasons for the marriage were wrong, it doesn't follow that divorce is the best policy now that the marriage has lasted for decades. Lots of things have changed in the interim. The decision of whether to leave now simply isn't the same as the decision to join then. Leaving the EU won't return the UK to the status quo ante.
The husband (Europe) is so obsessive that she has to get clearance on the toiletries (soap, shampoo, conditioner) she uses, the meat, cereal, begs, fruits (esp bananas ) she eats, the shoes & clothes she wears.
He has bought off her servants (public servants, politicians & bureaucrats) & has her cousin (USA) firmly on his side so much so that the cousin (USA) openly called her to continue to undergo her
hardships & misery ...
She can't freely correspond with others (other nations ), he'll do it on her behalf. Yet he (EU) is such a failed diplomat that his communications haven't brought about barrier-free trading arrangements with most of the big persons of the world.
He also keeps threatening to take on more consorts that her power will be stymied & become so feeble that the person in the next room wouldn't be able to hear her ...
She wants to have better relations with her old friends bound to her by history (The Commonwealth nations ) but He related to her by marriage & before by geography, is acting as an impediment ...
There can't be a more blinkered marriage than this ... She is Better Off Out ..
He has bought off her servants (public servants, politicians & bureaucrats) & has her cousin (USA) firmly on his side so much so that the cousin (USA) openly called her to continue to undergo her
hardships & misery ...
She can't freely correspond with others (other nations ), he'll do it on her behalf. Yet he (EU) is such a failed diplomat that his communications haven't brought about barrier-free trading arrangements with most of the big persons of the world.
He also keeps threatening to take on more consorts that her power will be stymied & become so feeble that the person in the next room wouldn't be able to hear her ...
She wants to have better relations with her old friends bound to her by history (The Commonwealth nations ) but He related to her by marriage & before by geography, is acting as an impediment ...
There can't be a more blinkered marriage than this ... She is Better Off Out ..
2
The professor writes that upon Brexit, Britain will be poorer, "essentially forever." He also writes that free markets are a voodoo "fantasy that has always and everywhere proved delusional."
I never went to journalism school, but somewhere, at some time, it must have been a taught principal in that discipline that normative statements stated absolutely as facts are to be disregarded.
Based upon such to-be-disregarded statements, followed by admissions that the thing to do about an organization whose greatest work--the Euro--the professor concedes is "a major mistake," the professor's conclusion is unconvincing. Neither does it give credit to two major benefits of Brexit. First, democracy. Instead of the bureaucrats who begat the Euro ruling Britain's economy, Brits will do so through their elected leaders. Second, even if the professor is correct that Britain will be 2% poorer upon exit, I suggest that there may be others who could demonstrate that with a more locally administered, nimble, economy, run for profit, not an elite's ideology, "2% poorer, essentially forever," might just be turned into "pretty much richer, so long as the right competitive decisions are made."
I do give the professor credit for admitting that "The E.U.'s failures have produced a frightening rise in reactionary, racist nationalism." Progressives in the United States might try on that statement as a whole as an explanation for how their own political arrogance has created Donald Trump.
I never went to journalism school, but somewhere, at some time, it must have been a taught principal in that discipline that normative statements stated absolutely as facts are to be disregarded.
Based upon such to-be-disregarded statements, followed by admissions that the thing to do about an organization whose greatest work--the Euro--the professor concedes is "a major mistake," the professor's conclusion is unconvincing. Neither does it give credit to two major benefits of Brexit. First, democracy. Instead of the bureaucrats who begat the Euro ruling Britain's economy, Brits will do so through their elected leaders. Second, even if the professor is correct that Britain will be 2% poorer upon exit, I suggest that there may be others who could demonstrate that with a more locally administered, nimble, economy, run for profit, not an elite's ideology, "2% poorer, essentially forever," might just be turned into "pretty much richer, so long as the right competitive decisions are made."
I do give the professor credit for admitting that "The E.U.'s failures have produced a frightening rise in reactionary, racist nationalism." Progressives in the United States might try on that statement as a whole as an explanation for how their own political arrogance has created Donald Trump.
4
The statement about free markets isn't normative; it's descriptive. Krugman claims that it has proved delusional ... that's an empirical claim.
It seems as if European countries looked at the positive benefits of American states becoming the United States and said, we want that… but only certain parts.
Without a central government, Europe can never be as united as the United States because they haven’t made the same commitment. Let’s face it, if we weren’t united, many of our states would be in as much trouble as Greece. For better or worse, for richer or poorer, we’re married to Alabama, say... and so far, the states with better economies and governance haven’t held a referendum to dissolve the union and go it alone. When we don't like the way the country's going, we have no choice but to try and fix it. So far, we've been better off because of our commitment.
Without a central government, Europe can never be as united as the United States because they haven’t made the same commitment. Let’s face it, if we weren’t united, many of our states would be in as much trouble as Greece. For better or worse, for richer or poorer, we’re married to Alabama, say... and so far, the states with better economies and governance haven’t held a referendum to dissolve the union and go it alone. When we don't like the way the country's going, we have no choice but to try and fix it. So far, we've been better off because of our commitment.
18
It doesn't really matter in the long run what the Brits do.
History for ten thousand years basically consists of war every few decades and in between do your best to muddle through. There are no lasting golden ages of peace and prosperity, just little runs of peace amongst centuries of struggle.
We see some version of the same narrative today on every continent. Staying won't fix the EU or the state of the UK, and leaving won't either.
Life is muddling through. I wish the voters there the best whatever they decide.
History for ten thousand years basically consists of war every few decades and in between do your best to muddle through. There are no lasting golden ages of peace and prosperity, just little runs of peace amongst centuries of struggle.
We see some version of the same narrative today on every continent. Staying won't fix the EU or the state of the UK, and leaving won't either.
Life is muddling through. I wish the voters there the best whatever they decide.
8
Yup. Across the Atlantic they will always have trump or his incarnations.
1
Global integration is not going away. It is the wave of the future, and in the long run will continue to shape our world.
Yes, the European Union is fraught with problems, but history is replete with struggles, not ease. It is hard to see how alienation from the rest of the continent will ultimately work to Britain's benefit.
Yes, the European Union is fraught with problems, but history is replete with struggles, not ease. It is hard to see how alienation from the rest of the continent will ultimately work to Britain's benefit.
1
"I’d do it in full awareness that the E.U. is deeply dysfunctional and shows few signs of reforming."
But it has only been a very short time since they created the EU, still shorter since the Euro was created. Discord such as this is more the norm.
Yugoslavia remained together as long as Tito was alive. Then it violently split. Nehru cited it for the chances of different states in India with different culture and languages to remain together. And so far it did. As an Indian American I hope it would.
Despite his cruelty, Saddam kept the "artificially put-together" Iraq as a single nation. If he weren't ousted Iraq would have been a stabilizing force in the Middle East. Most three faction members existed in fair harmony; intermarriage among Sunnis & Shias were happening.
Lincoln had to wage a long bloody Civil war to keep USA together, despite the same language at least.
Such armed conflict can't keep EU together as it is still not (yet) a single country.
Despite substantial progress, UN is still toothless, but limping along. Good. Hope for it to have more power, for humanity's sake.
So hope, eventually, with or without Britain EU would remain together and would have a lot more benevolent influence because EU remains as EU.
When it comes to human nature, instinct to congregate to enjoy each other is there. But about as strong as that is the opposing force to quarrel and move apart. Somehow, togetherness-instinct seems more powerful than the quarrelling-instinct.
But it has only been a very short time since they created the EU, still shorter since the Euro was created. Discord such as this is more the norm.
Yugoslavia remained together as long as Tito was alive. Then it violently split. Nehru cited it for the chances of different states in India with different culture and languages to remain together. And so far it did. As an Indian American I hope it would.
Despite his cruelty, Saddam kept the "artificially put-together" Iraq as a single nation. If he weren't ousted Iraq would have been a stabilizing force in the Middle East. Most three faction members existed in fair harmony; intermarriage among Sunnis & Shias were happening.
Lincoln had to wage a long bloody Civil war to keep USA together, despite the same language at least.
Such armed conflict can't keep EU together as it is still not (yet) a single country.
Despite substantial progress, UN is still toothless, but limping along. Good. Hope for it to have more power, for humanity's sake.
So hope, eventually, with or without Britain EU would remain together and would have a lot more benevolent influence because EU remains as EU.
When it comes to human nature, instinct to congregate to enjoy each other is there. But about as strong as that is the opposing force to quarrel and move apart. Somehow, togetherness-instinct seems more powerful than the quarrelling-instinct.
5
This article reflects the fear-mongering and snobbery of the entire debate about the EU. All of the catastrophic economic and social consequences of EU membership are treated in a level-headed way, then immediately sidelined because: racism. It is not racist to acknowledge that the EU is a project whose values have wrought economic violence on every single member country, laid waste to democracy and will destroy the European welfare states American liberals like Krugman love so much to laud. The truth is: Greece should have left. If the UK votes to leave, then short-term market volatility is a price the world will pay for handing Germany the reigns.
17
Well said Ruth !
As an American who recently attained British citizenshiip, I have been appalled by the scare tactics and fear mongering used by both sides in the referendum debate. To cite just one of many examples: George Osborne, the pro-EU Chancellor of the Exchequer, warned this past week of Brexit budget cuts and tax rises, whille Ian Duncan Smith, an anti-EU campaigner and former leader of the Conversative Party warned that the country's security could be seriously undermined by remaining within the EU. The case for voting to remain, by and large, has been conspicuous by its absence. Voters are truly struggling--with only a week to go--to make an intelligent decision since each side seems intent on twisting "the facts" to support their position.
I will indeed be voting to remain, but my English wife supports the leave campaign. To me, the centrifugal forces of the Brits voting to leave will not only have a profound effect upon the European Union, possibly resulting in the dissolution of the EU, but could also lead to a second Scottish referendum and the potential breakup of the UK.
Much is at stake with the vote on June 23rd and we will all have to wait for history to unfold before the decision and its impact are revealed.
I will indeed be voting to remain, but my English wife supports the leave campaign. To me, the centrifugal forces of the Brits voting to leave will not only have a profound effect upon the European Union, possibly resulting in the dissolution of the EU, but could also lead to a second Scottish referendum and the potential breakup of the UK.
Much is at stake with the vote on June 23rd and we will all have to wait for history to unfold before the decision and its impact are revealed.
3
I wonder what Churchill's calculations were when he decided that the English Speaking People, who are at root a Teutonic People, didn't want to become any more German than they already were.
Europe is a sham democracy, and all of the technocrats who administer the Brussels version of Democracy are Chicago School of Economics acolytes influenced and approved of by that hotbed of neoliberal orthodoxy, K Street of Washington DC.
Their inclinations are elitist, and most certainly not democratic, and they currently swim in a German pond, which is filtered through the ECB, the EU, and the no longer so compliant IMF.
Germany has rigged all outcomes for the union contrary to the Economic fundamentals of the members of the Union, to the advantage of the German export juggernaut, and we know from market history that manipulated systems will fail, when the fundamentals barge back in to confound the grifters...as they always have before.
Don't forget that The Euro is an American creation. Prof. Robert Mundell (Columbia U. U of Chicago) was the father of the Euro. The former Bank of England head Baron Mervyn King said on 3Mar16, that the "depression" in Europe "has happened almost as a deliberate act of policy". Specifically, King said that "the formation of the European Union has doomed Europe to economic malaise."
Europe is a sham democracy, and all of the technocrats who administer the Brussels version of Democracy are Chicago School of Economics acolytes influenced and approved of by that hotbed of neoliberal orthodoxy, K Street of Washington DC.
Their inclinations are elitist, and most certainly not democratic, and they currently swim in a German pond, which is filtered through the ECB, the EU, and the no longer so compliant IMF.
Germany has rigged all outcomes for the union contrary to the Economic fundamentals of the members of the Union, to the advantage of the German export juggernaut, and we know from market history that manipulated systems will fail, when the fundamentals barge back in to confound the grifters...as they always have before.
Don't forget that The Euro is an American creation. Prof. Robert Mundell (Columbia U. U of Chicago) was the father of the Euro. The former Bank of England head Baron Mervyn King said on 3Mar16, that the "depression" in Europe "has happened almost as a deliberate act of policy". Specifically, King said that "the formation of the European Union has doomed Europe to economic malaise."
8
Is the dream of a United Democratic Europe dying, and with it the dream of never repeating the disaster of a continent enmeshed in World Wars which are fought in its backyard? How terribly sad.
The European Union was more than an economic experiment. It was a social and political experiment to end division, inequality and ultra-nationalism. It was to be an example of how much more many small nations could accomplish for their people by working cooperatively rather than through ruthless competition.
I do hope Britain will see the advantage of European Unity and help lead the way to greater cooperation, rather than turn away in the naive hope of reviving a past that in their imagination was glorious. Britain as a leader in the EU is the future that, in spite of difficulties, can bring hope to us all.
The European Union was more than an economic experiment. It was a social and political experiment to end division, inequality and ultra-nationalism. It was to be an example of how much more many small nations could accomplish for their people by working cooperatively rather than through ruthless competition.
I do hope Britain will see the advantage of European Unity and help lead the way to greater cooperation, rather than turn away in the naive hope of reviving a past that in their imagination was glorious. Britain as a leader in the EU is the future that, in spite of difficulties, can bring hope to us all.
3
Maybe the Germans looked at us, the 50 Disunited States of America, and decided that the blame game was easier than trying to get along. The Brits may feel they have a better chance if they withdraw from the EU. Since no one can predict the future they could be right or wrong. One thing is certain, passions on all sides have been high. Perhaps drawing up the pros and cons without the arguments would be a way to decide. Britain isn't trying to seal itself off completely. It sounds as if they feel like their concerns are being ignored, sort of like the complaints we in America make about government intrusion or thickheadedness when it comes to addressing our issues.
However, I'm not part of the European Union. I do not live in Britain, France, Germany, or any other country in Europe. Whatever the British do, I hope it works out well for them.
However, I'm not part of the European Union. I do not live in Britain, France, Germany, or any other country in Europe. Whatever the British do, I hope it works out well for them.
8
The big question regarding the EU is are the current problems growing pains or structural? If they are growing pains the UK should tough it out and if they are structural and the EU is unwilling or unable to change they should leave.
5
A decently written point of view, that I was reading with an open mind, then that tossed in shibboleth of the Left, that a people wanting to have immigration limited to the needs of their country, who want the culture of their country to remain and not be subsumed into the culture brought by massive immigration, is somehow "racist nationalism". It is not. It is love of country and culture, and frustration with the elites who find such beliefs "racist".
8
Professor Krugman didn't say that. You need to read more carefully. Krugman merely said that as a consequence of a Brexit, racist, nationalist parties on the Continent would be encouraged. He also said, to the contrary, that he sympathizes with pro-Leave Britons who want to have more control of their national destiny.
I wish Paul Krugman would spend some time trying to increase his vocabulary. He seems to be obsessed with the word (concept) Voodoo to express all things negative in his economical punditry. One begins to get the impression that he has some antipathy towards this Africana tradition. If you search other traditions your penchant for cultural metaphors will also be satisfied.
J. Everet Green
J. Everet Green
3
The introduction of the Euro has lead to disaster. Without the ability to sell bonds backed by the credit of all members together, you are faced with even more Greece like situations. EU members can't control tax and spend policies in any other members states. The end result is a house without a roof, in 2008, there was a hurricane and the house is flooded. Idiotic austerity measures demanded a destruction of living standards and a veto power of democratically elected governments, at the behest of EU bankers. All that mattered was that investors took precedent over citizens. 25% unemployment and gigantic poverty levels were seen as nothing more than speed bumps to investor class profits. No wonder so many members are questioning the EU.
8
Tired of reading all the doom and gloom and absurd forecasts and predictions if Britain leaves the E.U. England will survive and thrive. The stock markets may take a temporary hit but before joining the E.U. Britain was a strong, resilient, inventive, forward thinking country and it will remain so if it decides to leave the E.U.
The folks who would prefer a new world order of one government enacting the laws and regulations hundreds of millions of people must follow is proving distasteful to millions of people who are tired of some authority in another country dictating their present and future to them. I hope the Brits leave and then await the next doom and gloom predictions from those who cannot accept sovereign nations ruling themselves.
The world is not going to end if Britain leaves the E.U. Britain survived very well for hundreds of years before joining the E.U. and it will do very well when it leaves.
The folks who would prefer a new world order of one government enacting the laws and regulations hundreds of millions of people must follow is proving distasteful to millions of people who are tired of some authority in another country dictating their present and future to them. I hope the Brits leave and then await the next doom and gloom predictions from those who cannot accept sovereign nations ruling themselves.
The world is not going to end if Britain leaves the E.U. Britain survived very well for hundreds of years before joining the E.U. and it will do very well when it leaves.
6
"Before joining the E.U. Britain was a strong, resilient, inventive, forward thinking country"??? You must be joking. I am a Brit old enough to remember the pre-EU (or EEC as it then was) days. We were the sick man of Europe, with EFTA no remedy. That was why we had tried for a decade to join, only to be thwarted by De Gaulle's veto. Kristof is absolutely right in choosing the lesser of two evils. I will be following suit.
Rather Trumpish, no? "It will be great folks. It will be great!"
1
The real risk to the EU isn't of further enabling the wacko-bird brigade (National Front, Alternative for Germany, Fidesz et al.). Rather, it is the removal of one more potential restraint on the non-soul-searching Eurocrats. (I say 'potential' because the UK is already pretty disengaged, exercising far less influence within the EU than would be expected due to its size & GDP.)
Without the UK, the Eurocrats will merely say "good riddance" and double down on all their mistakes. Classic strategy: "if what you're doing isn't working, then do more of it".
Without the UK, the Eurocrats will merely say "good riddance" and double down on all their mistakes. Classic strategy: "if what you're doing isn't working, then do more of it".
6
Through globalization we have had tons of economic growth in Canada these last ten years. Problem is I now barely recognize this country because of that growth.
1
From my Continental perch, despite my fears about the future of Europe, I think 'let the Brits leave already'. They've been peevish members from the start. They consider themselves superior to everyone else. News flash: leaving the EU will not bring back your glory days. You will be less relevant as than you are now. Yes, this new world is scary, but nativism and atavism will not help us cope with it.
That said, there are very real grievances against Europe. Germany has led very badly. The euro and Schengen need to be looked at again, no question. Cameron should have used the referendum to accomplish changes in the EU. He failed to do so, and unleashed forces he wiill not be able to contain. Forces that kill MPs in the streets of Yorkshire.
That said, there are very real grievances against Europe. Germany has led very badly. The euro and Schengen need to be looked at again, no question. Cameron should have used the referendum to accomplish changes in the EU. He failed to do so, and unleashed forces he wiill not be able to contain. Forces that kill MPs in the streets of Yorkshire.
1
Tragic shooting of a well respected and loved MP shouldn't be used for point scoring , this idiot who did this terrible act did not do it in the name of people who want the Uk to leave the EU ... he was mentally unstable , he's got a mixed race step brother and seemingly didn't have a political view.( bbc ) he's a crazy man who has robbed a young family of a loving mother and wife ..
Cameron seemingly tried very hard to get change , but have you ever tried to row a boat upstream without a paddle ?
Cameron seemingly tried very hard to get change , but have you ever tried to row a boat upstream without a paddle ?
The economics are not crystal clear. Others , like Norway, do absolutely fine trading with Europe. There will be knee jerk reactions such as a lower pound (much of which has been priced into the market for a while). But, the UK could also be doing Europe a favor to reform and change toward something that works better. So, the argument you use for remain - it keeps things stable - implies the current situation is working and the trajectory is positive. Nothing could be further from the truth.
3
A rather one-dimensional view from Krugman. The EU is not as bad as made out and change will come from voting out some of our awful national governments, such as the Conservatives here in the UK, who are the real austerity culprits. If the Greeks hadn't practised tax evasion on an epic scale they'd be much better off too. The truth is that the regulatory ties the UK has with the EU are not nearly as large as made out.
The key for me and many others, especially younger people, is the glorious irrelevance that artificial national boundaries have become. Above all we should be taking down walls between people not building them again. The solution lies in stronger local/regional democracy within an open Europe. Just look at Scotland.
The key for me and many others, especially younger people, is the glorious irrelevance that artificial national boundaries have become. Above all we should be taking down walls between people not building them again. The solution lies in stronger local/regional democracy within an open Europe. Just look at Scotland.
6
In spite of all the xenophobic accusations in Britain - which, by the way, match with America's - the UK got a lot more being with EU than not.
People said (im)migrants take jobs from the locals, this parallels the same argument here, which is wrong. More, like this country, the British economy benefits from the vibrancy of these folks.
Not only this is a simple trade off, the UK might lose significant gains by isolating itself. Would foreigners still want to dash their money there if it is no longer a safe haven? What about the shipping charters it took from Greece? The Greeks certainly don't mind if the shipping companies coming back when the UK can no longer provide rock bottom prices
People said (im)migrants take jobs from the locals, this parallels the same argument here, which is wrong. More, like this country, the British economy benefits from the vibrancy of these folks.
Not only this is a simple trade off, the UK might lose significant gains by isolating itself. Would foreigners still want to dash their money there if it is no longer a safe haven? What about the shipping charters it took from Greece? The Greeks certainly don't mind if the shipping companies coming back when the UK can no longer provide rock bottom prices
2
The European elites are as tone-deaf as the US elites. That is the overall problem in an era of instant communications. These elites have pilloried the rest of society in order to profit themselves, and, those on the other end of the line see it and react accordingly. A caring, altruistic elite class could have changed all this. However, that is not what modern 'free markets' and the almighty dollar are all about. Should have read what Adam Smith really said. Too late.
16
Humans and evolution don't move in either a straight line or in human time. The ebbs and flows of mass consensus generally have a tendency to erode rather than disrupt hard held delusions, at the expense of human pain and suffering.
That said, we know a lot more than ever about how both humans and evolution work. This, perhaps, offers an opportunity for more informed and rapid transformation of the ideas, traditions, and beliefs that add the turbulence of 'trial and error', and slow the processes of change.
Togetherness is the hallmark of civilization. Conflict, and war, and conflagration, driven by self interest have traditionally offered an all too tempting easy way out.
That said, we know a lot more than ever about how both humans and evolution work. This, perhaps, offers an opportunity for more informed and rapid transformation of the ideas, traditions, and beliefs that add the turbulence of 'trial and error', and slow the processes of change.
Togetherness is the hallmark of civilization. Conflict, and war, and conflagration, driven by self interest have traditionally offered an all too tempting easy way out.
1
The United Kingdom is facing the Rubicon. The Scotts and the Irish are not so united nor enamored. Angela Merkel and Germany dominate Europe by demography and economy.
There is no political United States of Europe that corresponds to the socioeconomic European Union and the currency union European Zone. Not all of Europe is part of either the EU nor the EZ. There is no military union that is entirely encompassed within either grouping.
What good is the EU and the EZ with or without Britain to the USA?
There is no political United States of Europe that corresponds to the socioeconomic European Union and the currency union European Zone. Not all of Europe is part of either the EU nor the EZ. There is no military union that is entirely encompassed within either grouping.
What good is the EU and the EZ with or without Britain to the USA?
4
The EU is an unprecedented example of regional economic federation. It may not succeed as it stands but the impact of tearing it down and starting anew (by returning to the 'old ways') rather than moving progressively forward is probably not the best option.
The heart of the issue is the dominance of the 'German machine'. Maybe Germany needs a little more introspection with the intent of finding tolerance and acceptance for less efficient socio-economic thinking. Machines are good, but we need to find better ways to keep the humans and humanity in the game.
The heart of the issue is the dominance of the 'German machine'. Maybe Germany needs a little more introspection with the intent of finding tolerance and acceptance for less efficient socio-economic thinking. Machines are good, but we need to find better ways to keep the humans and humanity in the game.
2
Britain is considering Brexit and this reaction is easy to understand however the existential reality of the current moment is that Britain and continental Europe do not need separation but rather improved coordination. The EU is still suffering under the unprecedented effects of the recession of 2008 from which it has not recovered as of yet. Monumental dislocations of populations are underway, related to war and slowing of the world economy. Too many issues not being decided with the goal of creating a single unified economy but rather remains fragmented in the hands of technocrats and national interest parties such as Germany.
It is unfortunate that some Brexit voters may see this as a way to express xenophobic anxieties and that aggressive austerity policies have made people feel more insecure about their futures. In some ways it is as if they imagine that a wall needs to be erected between Britain and the rest of the world .
We ourselves have a similar phenomenon in Donald Trump, the idea that a wall and not improved coordination and integration are the answers to the complex issues we face. It is only to hoped that The idea of separation does not extend to the EU at a time when we need the exact opposite and it is to be hoped that The British with their long history as a part of Europe, step up to the problems that need facing rather than turn to romantic escapism.
It is unfortunate that some Brexit voters may see this as a way to express xenophobic anxieties and that aggressive austerity policies have made people feel more insecure about their futures. In some ways it is as if they imagine that a wall needs to be erected between Britain and the rest of the world .
We ourselves have a similar phenomenon in Donald Trump, the idea that a wall and not improved coordination and integration are the answers to the complex issues we face. It is only to hoped that The idea of separation does not extend to the EU at a time when we need the exact opposite and it is to be hoped that The British with their long history as a part of Europe, step up to the problems that need facing rather than turn to romantic escapism.
4
Over time, we will find more togetherness, or we will perish. It would be a lot better if we pursue that goal without self, tribal, or national interest.
The cold, hard fact is that the boundaries don't exist any more. There is no point in building or hiding behind walls.
The cold, hard fact is that the boundaries don't exist any more. There is no point in building or hiding behind walls.
" It is only to hoped that The idea of separation does not extend to the EU at a time when we need the exact opposite and it is to be hoped that The British with their long history as a part of Europe, step up to the problems that need facing rather than turn to romantic escapism." ----- Spoken like a true Wall Street / London City Banker.
But really come on .. would you the proud nation of that is USA want the architects of this document making decisions for you ? Nope !
Neither do we .... https://ec.europa.eu/priorities/sites/beta-political/files/5-presidents-...
But really come on .. would you the proud nation of that is USA want the architects of this document making decisions for you ? Nope !
Neither do we .... https://ec.europa.eu/priorities/sites/beta-political/files/5-presidents-...
Federation, tough as it may be, is a strong commitment toward human unity. Trade agreements represent steps toward federation.
The real question is: how do we deal with the delusional, and displaced humans, and the traditions, and beliefs that must be sacrificed to federation.
A faster moving, more informed, and more connected world is disrupting the tranquility and balance in corners of the world where time has long stood still.
The real question is: how do we deal with the delusional, and displaced humans, and the traditions, and beliefs that must be sacrificed to federation.
A faster moving, more informed, and more connected world is disrupting the tranquility and balance in corners of the world where time has long stood still.
2
I respect Paul's opinion and assessment of the outcome of either to remain or leave, but as an American, an Anglo-phile who has enjoyed visiting England regularly since 1994, I believe England should vote leave. The EU has failed England and this great nation will struggle and even be hurt for a while after they leave the EU, but it will prosper in the end. Voting leave is worth the gamble.
6
While I would probably vote to go I found your analysis to be fair and well thought out. The bureaucracy is Brussels is so disconnected with the people they claim to serve that the EU will need to change or die. The recent immigrant crisis has further shown this. The Euro may need to die in either case. The Brexit will lead to one these changes, any of which are better than the status quo.
6
Sorry Paul, I usually read your op-ed's with great interest and more often than not, agreement. However this time, sorry. This election is more than a verdict on an undemocratic bureaucracy in which whether Leave or Remain, the vast majority of UK citizens feel little to no affinity with. It's about a people's right to self-determination (which goes beyond 2% richer or poorer). The UK has always been open with a distinct entrepreneurial spirit, something that is totally alien to the majority of the continent (alert: I live in Germany so I know what I'm talking about).
The EU reminds me of VW... it's fantastic just until it gets caught out with all the xxxxx it exudes. Moreover, I see the ECB has finally come around to the folly of austerity, or have they? Luckly the UK didn't follow the experts :)
The EU reminds me of VW... it's fantastic just until it gets caught out with all the xxxxx it exudes. Moreover, I see the ECB has finally come around to the folly of austerity, or have they? Luckly the UK didn't follow the experts :)
15
As a J. K. Galbraith pointed out life is largely a matter of choosing between unpalatable alternatives. The Brits will probably vote to remain but even if they don't the EU will continue on much as before because basically it's been a huge success. In fact I'm sure German and French financiers and bankers are rubbing their hands with glee in anticipation of the opportunities that Brexit will provide for them to take a lot of Euro denominated business away from London which has all kinds of protections for the City built into into its treaty arrangements with the EU. Of course the average dumkopf in the street in Britain is unaware of this. And sure a 25-30% devaluation would assist British exports but how long is this going to take while in the meantime their import bill soars when they already have serious balance of payment problems and the value of sterling denominated domestic assets plummets.
3
Why does the left automatically equate Nationalism (pride in ones own country) with racism? Can't one be proud of their countries identity and not want it to be overrun with others who live off the government (read taxes) and have absolutely no desire to integrate?
16
Patriotism is the love, pride and loyalty one has for the homeland. Nationalism is the belief that one's country is superior than other countries, just because it is the homeland. It gives the citizens of one's birthplace or residence a religion-like belief that it is their natural right to assume it's OK to say, "my land is better than your land." It then can be used to discriminate against non-natives, as well as attack other nations. The left does NOT equate patriotism with racism. This leftist (I can't speak for others) is a patriot, but wants no part of American Exceptionalism (nationalism). Most leftists I know strive for a more perfect Union, realizing that the one we have is not.
2
Why does the right automatically assume that immigrants will be lazy people that will be dependent on a government to meet all of their needs? Only native Americans were here first, the rest of us are descendents of immigrants. Didn't all of those immigrants come here looking for something better out of life?
1
Why do you on the right automatically presume new citizens will "live off the government"??
People come to a country to build better lives; the vast majority obtain this goal.
But right wingers only perpetuate the myth of "living on the dole"....even when it is a demonstrably false Lie.
People come to a country to build better lives; the vast majority obtain this goal.
But right wingers only perpetuate the myth of "living on the dole"....even when it is a demonstrably false Lie.
1
The reason for the Brexit is simple - economic integration and globalization no longer benefits a majority in the West.
Those left behind are doing the math and concluding that a growing pie is of no benefit to them if they do not get a seat at the table; however, a smaller pie that is shared may be in their better interest.
The Brexit is not a threat because it might reduce the power, influence and GDP of the UK. Rather, it is a threat because it could be the beginning of the end of a system that overwhelming favors the elites.
Those left behind are doing the math and concluding that a growing pie is of no benefit to them if they do not get a seat at the table; however, a smaller pie that is shared may be in their better interest.
The Brexit is not a threat because it might reduce the power, influence and GDP of the UK. Rather, it is a threat because it could be the beginning of the end of a system that overwhelming favors the elites.
14
It seems to me that the political/economic crises afflicting the U.K. & U.S. - symbolized by BREXIT and Trump respectively - arise from a common cause: The delusional faith and over-reliance on markets to regulate larger and larger shares of every sphere of economic activity, and near complete failure to consider and compensate for the rising tide of unintended negative consequences (which is actually part and parcel of the same delusion that included faith in the ability of free markets to mitigate the negatives that they themselves have caused).
So now, after a generation of working class and middle class citizens have seen their plans for reasonably comfortable lives, dignified retirement, and hopes for even better lives for their children, destroyed by unrestrained downsizing, outsourcing, and offshoring of their jobs all whilst the political/wealthy elites who benefit from these conditions, rig the game,blame the losers for the misery, and say it's because no other system of economic organization is possible ; the chickens have come home to roost.
So now, after a generation of working class and middle class citizens have seen their plans for reasonably comfortable lives, dignified retirement, and hopes for even better lives for their children, destroyed by unrestrained downsizing, outsourcing, and offshoring of their jobs all whilst the political/wealthy elites who benefit from these conditions, rig the game,blame the losers for the misery, and say it's because no other system of economic organization is possible ; the chickens have come home to roost.
155
BRAVO!!! You nailed it, Mr. Anders, and thank you.
1
We have moved from the concept of a "market economy" to the concept of a "market society" in which we believe markets can solve all of society's problems. In fact markets are imperfect, but they are a perfect excuse that has allowed corporate executives and politicians alike to get away with gutting the institutions that were critical to a growing middle class. Offshoring jobs, downsizing the workforce without downsizing the work and eliminating benefits like pensions are done because the "market" demands lower costs and higher profits). Proposals to privatize social Security, education and other services are out there because the "market" will do a better job. This bill of goods has been sold for the past four decades without any critical thinking about whether it is true, no where as forcefully as in the UK and the US. Now nothing seems to be working right for the average family in these two countries and people are turning to Trump and Brexit. Truly the chickens have come home to roost.
2
The only observation I can make from this side of the pond is that a Brexit seems similar to the current political rhetoric on both the left and the right here that our international trade agreements--NAFTA and now the TPP--limit our national sovereignty by making it subject to corporations, hurt local manufacturing, and are anti-labor. Many of those same ideas are mentioned by Dr. Krugman, but a similar U.S.-exit from major trade agreements--and the E.U. with its Euro is a massive trading zone--are favored here at home. Unless such agreements are open for renegotiation (which the TPP is not), leaving may be the best course that could end E.U. political and economic stagnation and produce real reform. Then, Britain might want to rejoin following Churchill's famous comment about rejoining and political party he's previously left, "Anyone can rat, but it takes a certain amount of ingenuity to re-rat."
5
You have Angela Merkel imperiously ordering other countries to accept so many hundreds of thousands of immigrants who have no intention of adopting their home countries values and we are mystified that England wants out? Only the naive and those giddy with liberal glee over the concept of multiculturalism are surprised by what is going on here.
16
The European Union was created from The Third Reich Plan for the Unification of Europe. Now the member countries are seeing what a disaster it has caused. They all deserve to suffer for their poor decision.
5
The EU in its current structure is doomed to fail. Like all of its proir attempts by the Romans, the Carloginians, the Holy Roman Empire, the Spanish Empire, the Hapsburgs, and even Napoleon: a pan-european government is simply too complicated to administer considering all the competing regional interests.
Currently the EU is a millstone around the neck of the global economy. Even Draghi admits it may take 4 years or longer of negative interest rates and QE to produce results; which translates into QE forever.
From an economic standpoint, breaking the EU into 3 or 4 regional super-states would unlock the value of each region and lead to much greater growth.
As Brexit will only hasten the inevitable reorganizing of the EU, it is a desirable step in the right direction.
Currently the EU is a millstone around the neck of the global economy. Even Draghi admits it may take 4 years or longer of negative interest rates and QE to produce results; which translates into QE forever.
From an economic standpoint, breaking the EU into 3 or 4 regional super-states would unlock the value of each region and lead to much greater growth.
As Brexit will only hasten the inevitable reorganizing of the EU, it is a desirable step in the right direction.
5
@Kenneth Lindsey
Lindsey
Once someone starts comparing the EU with the Holy Roman Empire (particularly when he doesn't understand that the HRE was one and the same as the Hapsburg supremacy) you know he's a dweller in fruitcake land. Don't worry Ken the EU will continue on it's merry way whether the British leave or not just as it did before their THREE grovelling attempts to beg their way in (the first two were vetoed by the French). The French and Germans will quite happy to run things without the continual whining from London.
Lindsey
Once someone starts comparing the EU with the Holy Roman Empire (particularly when he doesn't understand that the HRE was one and the same as the Hapsburg supremacy) you know he's a dweller in fruitcake land. Don't worry Ken the EU will continue on it's merry way whether the British leave or not just as it did before their THREE grovelling attempts to beg their way in (the first two were vetoed by the French). The French and Germans will quite happy to run things without the continual whining from London.
3
"But there’s a vote next week that could matter as much for the world’s future as what happens here: Britain’s referendum on whether to stay in the European Union.". The election of Trump would have much more effect on the world's future.
6
If the UK does take this terrible, nationalistic, neoliberal-fueled course of action, how long do you give Scotland before it finally tells the ghost of King James I sorry but no thanks and peels away to become its own, EU-linked nation?
4
Scots voted to stay , knowing this was round the corner.
Scots like folk from Northern England , Wales and Northern Ireland do not like Westminster and the unbalanced economic dependance on the city .
40% of the scots would want independence from Westminster , Westminster is nothing compared to Brussels , Yes given the chance Nicola Sturgeon will evoke her nationalistic ambitions would take all the billions that Brussels give them with open arms then when the oil dries up as it will be shafted by austerity demanded by Berlin. Some independence that would be !
Scots like folk from Northern England , Wales and Northern Ireland do not like Westminster and the unbalanced economic dependance on the city .
40% of the scots would want independence from Westminster , Westminster is nothing compared to Brussels , Yes given the chance Nicola Sturgeon will evoke her nationalistic ambitions would take all the billions that Brussels give them with open arms then when the oil dries up as it will be shafted by austerity demanded by Berlin. Some independence that would be !
Probably doesn't matter to most ordinary English people what Scotland decides.
Hang on a minute, if the English do it it's nationalistic but if the Scots wanting to separate from the UK was something completely different?
1
For decades, the EU has straddled the fence -- too powerful, too pervasive, to be a simple trade block; insufficiently democratic to be a real government. They should have made a choice, one way the other, a long time ago. Now they are paying the price for dithering.
6
I have to disagree that Brexit would not cause a financial crisis (in London and globally). The transmission mechanism wouldn't be monetary, as Dr. Krugman correctly asserts. However, there would certainly be a financial crisis due to 1) global financial uncertainty and fear, 2) the destabilizing effect that any economic and political change of this magnitude would cause, and 3) the direct and indirect effects that breaking the bonds of EU membership would have on Britain, its suppliers and its customers, through trade relations or other, perhaps internal, disruptions.
BTW: Off subject, though we have focused on the "rise in reactionary, racist nationalism" recently, I am getting older and I have another concern: I anticipate reactionary behavior from young people who resent the privileges accorded to older generations when they, themselves, suffer through economic struggles the likes of which we baby boomers have never had to endure. When will the vote be taken to remove us to a remote, isolated island . . . say, Britain? When will "ageism" evolve from insidious into reactionary, overt and organized? We have ignored this issue for far too long, but we lavish research dollars on extending life for the aged, then spend more just keeping them alive (usually with a very low quality of life). Do you think younger people can ignore that?
I didn't mean to become politically incorrect, but trying to keep people alive forever seems to have rapidly diminishing marginal returns.
BTW: Off subject, though we have focused on the "rise in reactionary, racist nationalism" recently, I am getting older and I have another concern: I anticipate reactionary behavior from young people who resent the privileges accorded to older generations when they, themselves, suffer through economic struggles the likes of which we baby boomers have never had to endure. When will the vote be taken to remove us to a remote, isolated island . . . say, Britain? When will "ageism" evolve from insidious into reactionary, overt and organized? We have ignored this issue for far too long, but we lavish research dollars on extending life for the aged, then spend more just keeping them alive (usually with a very low quality of life). Do you think younger people can ignore that?
I didn't mean to become politically incorrect, but trying to keep people alive forever seems to have rapidly diminishing marginal returns.
6
A fundamental principle of economics is that people vote rationally for their economic interests. Well, if Brexit causes an economic decline that is primarily felt by the upper classes, but results in a resurgence of manufacturing, then are not the British people voting their economic interest? Sure, the country may come out 2% poorer overall, but if what is left is more equally distributed, then on balance it is a win for the British working class.
13
Identity is the core human psychological imperative. It arises in the context of our earliest development and is significantly defensive in nature. We are defending against our own internal conflicts and anxieties, as a result of our struggle to separate from our mothers and individuate as unique and non-dependent beings. To the degree we have suffered trauma during this process, we are increasingly defensive of our identity... often to our own self detriment. All phobias and prejudices are sublimated forms of this psychological phenomenon. Multiculturalism and tolerance of all forms of human perversion are simultaneous reflections of and challenges to the human sense of identity. Brexit and Trump are natural reactions to the myriad threats to the identities of most people.
2
As an American, I don't live in Britain and I don't deal with the EU scheme of government. However, it seems to me that Europe remains poised to becoming the United States of Europe. And it has been for 60 years. Britain, and the other member states, live in a Groundhog Day that is never ending but constantly changing. Their sovereignty is slowly eroding and the United States of Europe never really emerges. Perhaps the time has come for Britain and the other EU member states to choose between a true federal system and the disintegration of EU as we know it.
19
Good analysis. We will all regret a British exit, if it occurs.
Issues left out. (1)The impact of climate change which is a contributing cause to immigration. (2) Overpopulation which compounds immigration issue. (3) Rapidly changing technology which is reducing the demand for labor which is reducing wages.
As a people, we may be doomed by our inability to overcome our tribalism. We need leaders who can chart a course out of these difficulties but, sadly, we get more tribal leaders who want to use spears to settle all problems. As a species, we may have run our course.
Issues left out. (1)The impact of climate change which is a contributing cause to immigration. (2) Overpopulation which compounds immigration issue. (3) Rapidly changing technology which is reducing the demand for labor which is reducing wages.
As a people, we may be doomed by our inability to overcome our tribalism. We need leaders who can chart a course out of these difficulties but, sadly, we get more tribal leaders who want to use spears to settle all problems. As a species, we may have run our course.
4
Dr. Krugman's reasoning out of his imagined vote on the Brexit (he's not a British citizen, obviously) strongly resemble mine and many other people's deliberations about our choice in the upcoming Presidential election. I will vote for Hillary Clinton, warts and all, because the alternative is so much worse. However, I also know that even if she wins we will be sentenced to more obstruction, more pointless, expensive investigations (e.g., Benghazi), and continued under regulation of banks and hedge funds, due to her strong ties with the financial sector. Although I abhor the sort of nationalist extremism embodied by Donald Trump and his cohorts in Europe, I do understand the frustration, anger and despair that are its underpinnings.
5
Not all in life is the mere pursuit of economic wealth at any cost. Securing the blessings of liberty and ensuring the general welfare are legitimate goals of a government that derives its just authority from the consent of the governed. Or so our own constitution tells us.
240 years ago, the United States paid the price of our sovereignty in blood.
Today Britain may repurchase it's own sovereignty with a mere 2% reduction in it's future wealth.
Many may feel that is a small price to pay.
240 years ago, the United States paid the price of our sovereignty in blood.
Today Britain may repurchase it's own sovereignty with a mere 2% reduction in it's future wealth.
Many may feel that is a small price to pay.
23
Remember when the Age of the Internet was going to stitch the globe together ? Th EU was a long foretold step in that direction. However lately all we see is the fabric ripping into smaller, often bloody pieces. The Czech Republic and Slovakia split accepted suppressed cultural realities albeit peacefully. On the other hand the Sykes-Picot Debacle is dying in a pool of blood. ISIS uses the Internet as its strategic arm. Even tiny Moldova is splitting from the Transdniester. The UK flirted with the loss of Scotland earlier and now may see that facilitated by the abandoning the EU. Will the fall of that Celtic domino mean that Belfast will follow, and then Wales. Again the Internet formed bonds between cultural groups, irrespective of the nation state framework. The US is not immune. The Texas Boys State convention just discussed a secessionist resolution. As always future historians will determine what role if any the Internet played in all this, but this is not the way the script was supposed to read.
3
The migration issue is a red herring, more than half the recent immigrants are non-EU, Britan could reduce immigration by 50% on its own. The same is true for many of the other things allegedly inflicted on the Brits by those Eurocrats in Brussels. The UK has carved out more exemptions from EU regulation than any other member state, and many of those are what the "Leave" folks are complaining about.
I wonder what happens the governments budget when the 2+ million EU/nonBrits who have jobs in the UK leave and are replaced by the 2+ million retired Brits living in other EU countries where health care costs are lower return.
I wonder what happens the governments budget when the 2+ million EU/nonBrits who have jobs in the UK leave and are replaced by the 2+ million retired Brits living in other EU countries where health care costs are lower return.
4
I lived in the UK for nearly five years back in the 1970's. I'd vote to Remain. But if as I anticipate Britain votes Leave, I think it will largely be in answer to Merkel & Co.'s punitive and heartless actions in Greece. A lot of British tourists have spent time in Greece, and are well aware of conditions there. And let's not overlook the longstanding distrust of most things German in the UK (which I think unwarranted). For better or worse, and mostly worse, many view the EU now as dominated by Germany. In the end, the Leave folks are likely to win because the EU seems not to be accountable. There ought to be a way to defeat individuals in the organization by a vote. There isn't, so those who favor Leave intend to un-elect the entire organization.
9
We have always known through history that direct democracy is a dangerous thing. That something this momentous is going to be decided by a referendum is really scary. People form their opinions through hearsay, demagoguery, disinformation, and all sorts of means not really thought through. We have seen this in our own presidential race. But then we see the experts disagree as well. I suppose throwing it to the public is like flipping a coin. But it gives me (and I admit to knowing nothing much about this, probably like the British public) a very uneasy feeling.
3
England has always made its way through domination and exploitation, creating wealth over the centuries through wars of acquisition. This latest Brittish referendum is the latest machination of the elites to maintain their dominance. Throughout the world, not just the EU, the lopsided distribution of wealth to the tiny tiny layer at the top, is the biggest injustice we face. Austerity is simply a reflection of the power of the elites to socialize their losses. It's no wonder the world rebels. With most of everything of value tied up by the elite through ever more corporate trade treaties, shutting out sovereignties, the easiest way to create even more wealth is war. Propoganda keeps it moving smoothly, with the media outlets owned by the same elite still squeezing the last drop out of the underlings. A person would have to be naive in the extreme to not understand this has been going on for centuries. Yet, the civil society of Europe is to be commended. They have up to date communication, transportation and great renewable energy strides. But the elites don't make too much money off of socialized services. Alas, they feel austerity is needed. And a war or two helps their coffers as well forcing masses of displaced people into Europe.
33
France and Spain did it too. Portugal, the Dutch and Belgium too. They fought each other too, for the loot, the wealth, The territory, the slaves.
1
I feel we are in a period of great economic change, which brings out the tribalism in all of us. Progress is always tied to the ability of international communities to overcome those tribal instincts ---the international community did that after WW II---and with great economic and social success. Now, however, in a period of great economic and cultural dislocation it becomes very difficult for members of our political class to combat the rise of these tribal instincts and much easier to stoke these instincts for one's political advancement. Aside from the long-term damage tribalism does to an economic and social system, it brings out a tribal crowd mentality that is dangerous---as we evidenced in Orlando, in England, and any Trump rally.
5
The Constitution nor the EU are suicide pacts. It is time to recognize that Islam and the west are incompatible and the best way to coexist is to minimize the contacts. Europe , for all of its strict gun laws, is being attacked by terrorists using guns because no law is going to have any effect on Muslim terrorists.
How exactly is migration the problem when the euro is supposed to be not working because of a lack of desire of Europeans to live where the work is? It seems more than a little bit contradictory.
1
You got the wrong end of the stick, Mr. Krugman.
The key issue is sovereignty as all EU-countries have lost gradually. And 62% of the British people have lost their trust in local politicians.
The UK is swarmed by poor immigrants from Euro-zone countries because of huge unemployment there so UK workers cannot compete with their low wages. Most cities feel the strain on housing except in Scotland while young people can no longer buy their own home.
The arrogance of French and German politicians is mind-boggling. No change in Treaties they claim, i.e. until their currency, the Euro, finally must give in to market pressure. And then all hell breaks loose, while people in the 19-country Euro-zone are pushed 20 to 30 years back. Lives will be ruined. Civil unrest may resurface and countries may even start fighting each other again.
The European Court of Justice overrules local laws. American citizens would never allow giving away their courts’ sovereignty say to Mexico or Canada. Why should the UK people?
The EU treaties cannot be changed or modified to accommodate the wishes of most of the 500m people in the EU, now turning it into a 19 century-styled one-party rule. Agreed.
So, the only way forward? Leave the EU-club as fast as possible.
Economic scaremongering from IMF and OECD? Sure, but who believes such fantasies any longer.
Mr. Krugman, it’s time to think outside the square. Vote Leave.
The key issue is sovereignty as all EU-countries have lost gradually. And 62% of the British people have lost their trust in local politicians.
The UK is swarmed by poor immigrants from Euro-zone countries because of huge unemployment there so UK workers cannot compete with their low wages. Most cities feel the strain on housing except in Scotland while young people can no longer buy their own home.
The arrogance of French and German politicians is mind-boggling. No change in Treaties they claim, i.e. until their currency, the Euro, finally must give in to market pressure. And then all hell breaks loose, while people in the 19-country Euro-zone are pushed 20 to 30 years back. Lives will be ruined. Civil unrest may resurface and countries may even start fighting each other again.
The European Court of Justice overrules local laws. American citizens would never allow giving away their courts’ sovereignty say to Mexico or Canada. Why should the UK people?
The EU treaties cannot be changed or modified to accommodate the wishes of most of the 500m people in the EU, now turning it into a 19 century-styled one-party rule. Agreed.
So, the only way forward? Leave the EU-club as fast as possible.
Economic scaremongering from IMF and OECD? Sure, but who believes such fantasies any longer.
Mr. Krugman, it’s time to think outside the square. Vote Leave.
11
Switch Britain with US and see if you feel the same way. We have seen the poor from southern states move north by the hundreds of thousands to take northern jobs thus lowering wages. Now we see the reverse. We see millions of poor immigrants, some here legally and many not, that are straining our systems and lowering wages. Is any struggling state in the US, like Michigan, really all that different?
Please read up on how the original US federal government-States relationship was defined and then tell me how that fundamentally differs from the original EU defined relationship.
Please read up on how the original US federal government-States relationship was defined and then tell me how that fundamentally differs from the original EU defined relationship.
In 2015 there about 330,000 immigrants to the UK, about 270,000 of those immigrants came from the EU14 countries -- Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden.
So the notion that the UK is being overwhelmed by the "poor immigrants" may be wrong.
If you like to play with numbers visit:
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics
So the notion that the UK is being overwhelmed by the "poor immigrants" may be wrong.
If you like to play with numbers visit:
http://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics
1
I no longer know whether to believe much or anything Krugman says. After his over the top biased reporting of the Democratic primary and denigrating of Sanders and his supporters, I wonder how much of this is based on well researched facts by Krugman and how much is strictly his own opinion, following his own agenda, masquerading as an economic analysis.
17
Why do Americans continue to monitor something that has nothing to do with them and is not their decision. Let Great Britain vote as it will.
7
As a 14 year tax paying and property owning American expat in Europe, I believe I've earned my right to express an opinion regarding Brexit. I'm for it and have discussed this with my many British expat neighbors.
On the other hand, heads of state like President Obama have no right to butt into another country's business. His comment telling the British to reject Brexit was biased, one sided, and delivered at the request of David Cameron. Obama threatened the British with American economic retaliation if they support Brexit.
As an expatriate American who moved to France to increase my freedom, I encourage my British friends to grasp all the freedom available to them including the renewed freedom they will have with Brexit!
On the other hand, heads of state like President Obama have no right to butt into another country's business. His comment telling the British to reject Brexit was biased, one sided, and delivered at the request of David Cameron. Obama threatened the British with American economic retaliation if they support Brexit.
As an expatriate American who moved to France to increase my freedom, I encourage my British friends to grasp all the freedom available to them including the renewed freedom they will have with Brexit!
21
For starters, because if the UK leaves Europe, that's going to have a short-medium term effect on the global economy.
2
Hello! The world is inter-connected in ways you don't understand. You would have been an isolationist in the 1930's, the result being perhaps your non-existence today.
Wake up!
Wake up!
Paul "Tory" Krugman would have done his level-headed best to cry out against Washington, Jefferson, Adams, Franklin and all the Founding Fathers as they voted "Amerexit" in 1776. But hey, at least the British won't have to fight a revolution to divorce themselves from the chokehold that is the EU.
Dr Krugman, has there ever been a Socialist entity that you didn't like? I mean, before its choice of jackboots was obvious? One hears "Peace in our Time" from the keyboard of Paul "Neville" Krugman.
Dr Krugman, has there ever been a Socialist entity that you didn't like? I mean, before its choice of jackboots was obvious? One hears "Peace in our Time" from the keyboard of Paul "Neville" Krugman.
15
So you would support a TXexit, a Texas exit from the US? Maybe Lincoln was wrong to have stopped the ConStatesexit.
Governments only work when people in them are working for the betterment of We the People. Not having governments is an even bigger disaster.
Governments only work when people in them are working for the betterment of We the People. Not having governments is an even bigger disaster.
He proved you wrong by dismissing every single of Bernie the real democratic socislist's proposals. Sorry Paul does not qualify as a socialist leaner.
1
well, two poor options do not bode well for the future...
however percieved, peoples' resistance to the corporatizing nature of EU govt. is growing across europe. just ask anyone in greek agriculture, a country that now drinks dutch milk and imports tomatoes!
however percieved, peoples' resistance to the corporatizing nature of EU govt. is growing across europe. just ask anyone in greek agriculture, a country that now drinks dutch milk and imports tomatoes!
5
There will always be an England.
4
They said that about Rome too.
First, nitpickingly, factually wrong, as it did not exit as a unified kingdom until the 9th century. Secondly, since the argument are about a Brexit, not a Engxit, and opiono polls show majoritis for staying ine the EU in Scotland and Wales, are you advocating a break-up of the United Kingdom? Or it simply case of considering the welsh, scots, northern irish, manxmen, and channel islanders as lesser breeds not under the law?Or just case of a remembering a good line, and just posting it without not a start , a middle or an and to thinking it through?
...until the sea rises 1,000 meters.
The EU has just postponed their plan to ban powerful tea kettles, so as not to upset the UK voters.
Everyone knows, of course, that as soon as the vote is over, they will proceed....
Everyone knows, of course, that as soon as the vote is over, they will proceed....
4
I remember those tea kettles when I visited Britain - they are amazing. They could bring a quart of water to the boil in less than a minute. The EU needs to keep their hands off British tea kettles - or the British will vote for Brexit.
12
It is amazing, innit?
But it isn't the kettles, it's the 220 V power system. Those with electric ranges or dryers in the US could just add another plug and buy a British tea kettle.
Alas, our range and dryer are gas-fired...
But it isn't the kettles, it's the 220 V power system. Those with electric ranges or dryers in the US could just add another plug and buy a British tea kettle.
Alas, our range and dryer are gas-fired...
1
Tea kettles are fast all over Europe: 220volts.
Isn't Brexit motivated by fear of immigrants and the possibility that they will be importing terrorists? Or worse still slackers. Isn't this the thread that ties the Brits to Trump?
2
Brexit is motivated more by arbitrary laws passed by EU politicians overriding the local laws in Britain, with no say by the populace over whom the laws will be imposed.
Check out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYqzcqDtL3k
Check out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYqzcqDtL3k
1
As of this Friday morning, polling (not done by newspapers) gives a slight edge to the Leave camp -- 52%. At the moment, the Brits aren't taking President Obama's advice or that of Christine LeGrande.
Scotland and Northern Ireland appear to be in the Remain camp by a large majority. But, if Britain leaves you can expect the Scots to have another independence referendum and the UK might end up less United.
While we don't hear much about it, lurking in the wings is the TransAtlantic Trade & Investment Partnership (the mate to the TPP and just as secret) between the US and the EU. If Britain were to Leave one wonders what would become of T-TIP. Many would be happy to see it die.
Unintended consequences. We'll know more June 24th.
Scotland and Northern Ireland appear to be in the Remain camp by a large majority. But, if Britain leaves you can expect the Scots to have another independence referendum and the UK might end up less United.
While we don't hear much about it, lurking in the wings is the TransAtlantic Trade & Investment Partnership (the mate to the TPP and just as secret) between the US and the EU. If Britain were to Leave one wonders what would become of T-TIP. Many would be happy to see it die.
Unintended consequences. We'll know more June 24th.
5
It's clear that economics are the last thing on the "brexits" minds. It's national pride and independence they rally around as it is something masses don't have to understand; "le coeur a ses raisons que la raison ignore".
As about "..., but Leave will be effectively irreversible...", maybe on paper but I wouldn't be surprised to see England wanting to come back in eventually, depending on how "brexit" fares. After all, they rejected the invitation into the EU precursor, *Le Marche Commun* originally; then seeing the advantages few years later, they were ready to join; arguing their way in as some countries were not too happy about their volte-face.
As about "..., but Leave will be effectively irreversible...", maybe on paper but I wouldn't be surprised to see England wanting to come back in eventually, depending on how "brexit" fares. After all, they rejected the invitation into the EU precursor, *Le Marche Commun* originally; then seeing the advantages few years later, they were ready to join; arguing their way in as some countries were not too happy about their volte-face.
1
Paul Krugman is seldom wrong but always lucid. If the EU is badly hurt by the Brexit, The EU being the UK 's biggest commercial partner, What will happen for British Economy after Brexit?
1
" I would vote Remain. I’d do it in full awareness that the E.U. is deeply dysfunctional and shows few signs of reforming"
If something is broken and you can't fix it, break it up and start again with something new.
Professor Krugman's arguments for retaining the EU are similar to his defense of the big banks during the crash of '08 - they are dysfunctional and dangerous to our Democracy but they are what we have!
Professor Krugman also mentions that a tiny group of super rich people will lose a lot of money if the EU is not propped up. which was also his argument for not reforming Wall Street and breaking up the big banks in '08.
Bush and Obama bailed out and propped up Wall Street after it choked on it's own greed and now we have a system where the banks own Congress and the whole system is even more fragile than before, but now there really is nothing "We" can do about it because our Representatives are owned by the Banks - Yes, Professor, I'm talking about Warrior Queen Hillary and her equally corrupt Consort.
I don't mean to be rude Professor, but your augment that this might cost some very rich people a lot of money is wearing a bit thin after the collapse of '08 and Bush/Obama's recovery for the rich, which helped a few very rich people but hurt the rest of us.
If something is broken and you can't fix it, break it up and start again with something new.
Professor Krugman's arguments for retaining the EU are similar to his defense of the big banks during the crash of '08 - they are dysfunctional and dangerous to our Democracy but they are what we have!
Professor Krugman also mentions that a tiny group of super rich people will lose a lot of money if the EU is not propped up. which was also his argument for not reforming Wall Street and breaking up the big banks in '08.
Bush and Obama bailed out and propped up Wall Street after it choked on it's own greed and now we have a system where the banks own Congress and the whole system is even more fragile than before, but now there really is nothing "We" can do about it because our Representatives are owned by the Banks - Yes, Professor, I'm talking about Warrior Queen Hillary and her equally corrupt Consort.
I don't mean to be rude Professor, but your augment that this might cost some very rich people a lot of money is wearing a bit thin after the collapse of '08 and Bush/Obama's recovery for the rich, which helped a few very rich people but hurt the rest of us.
13
To be or not to be.... hmmmm.
Brexit ?
Didn't we learn its easier to break than to build ?
Didn't we learn its easier to break than to build ?
1
and a few facts not mentioned in this post
1. If there will be a Brexit it mainly will have to do with the peoples stand against Immigration - an 'stealing their jobs' -(not my words) which has to do - mainly with -
Nr 2. - the fact - that the UK -(like the US) had given away nearly all of it's manufacturing base - and went ALL IN into 'Finance and Housing Bubbling'.
-(some Brits still can't believe it - that the countries (car) sould was sold with the Mini - the Rolls and the Bently and TO - of all people 'the Germans - and now the Queen has to be driven around in Rollses and Bentleys which are actually 'German Cars) - which leads us to -
Nr. 3 The crashing Pound -(if there will be a Brexit) and the illusion that would help British Exports?
What Exports? - if there is hardly any manufacturing left and exporting some financial stuff - if the London Casino is suddenly isolated from the continent and Frankfurt will gain as the EU market place??!
Which could lead us to Nr. 4 - and the fact - that the Euro - the unchangeable and GREATLY desired currency in the EU will lead soo supreme - that the lead of some 'Germans' is nuthing compared to it.
1. If there will be a Brexit it mainly will have to do with the peoples stand against Immigration - an 'stealing their jobs' -(not my words) which has to do - mainly with -
Nr 2. - the fact - that the UK -(like the US) had given away nearly all of it's manufacturing base - and went ALL IN into 'Finance and Housing Bubbling'.
-(some Brits still can't believe it - that the countries (car) sould was sold with the Mini - the Rolls and the Bently and TO - of all people 'the Germans - and now the Queen has to be driven around in Rollses and Bentleys which are actually 'German Cars) - which leads us to -
Nr. 3 The crashing Pound -(if there will be a Brexit) and the illusion that would help British Exports?
What Exports? - if there is hardly any manufacturing left and exporting some financial stuff - if the London Casino is suddenly isolated from the continent and Frankfurt will gain as the EU market place??!
Which could lead us to Nr. 4 - and the fact - that the Euro - the unchangeable and GREATLY desired currency in the EU will lead soo supreme - that the lead of some 'Germans' is nuthing compared to it.
3
The staggering debt of Italy, Spain and Greece tell you how strong the euro is. Not very.
Enough is Enough , fact is UK has had to live with laws and policy from an un accountable undemocratic organisation mastered by presidents who want a United States of Europe.. its not for us! Fabric of the EU is designed to be unaccountable , The EU budget hasn't been signed off by auditors for that last 20 years or so , this years budget has been delayed until after the EUref ...what does that tell you .
10,000 Eu staff get paid more than the UK prime minister , they pay tax as low as 8%. Brits are European but British first and proud of it ! this is a vote against the EU establishment not the people of Europe.
If there was a vote tomorrow for the good folks of the USA to join an organisation like the Eu , it would not happen .. so its patronising to suggest that there is not a positive future for the UK in the wider world but still being able to have a fair trading relationship with the EU , which is what my parents voted for in 1975.
10,000 Eu staff get paid more than the UK prime minister , they pay tax as low as 8%. Brits are European but British first and proud of it ! this is a vote against the EU establishment not the people of Europe.
If there was a vote tomorrow for the good folks of the USA to join an organisation like the Eu , it would not happen .. so its patronising to suggest that there is not a positive future for the UK in the wider world but still being able to have a fair trading relationship with the EU , which is what my parents voted for in 1975.
28
Good analysis however anything coming from America upsets British thinkers and pundits. What you might have said is that the "City of London" will loose to New York City the processing and handling of the world's money. Europe will cease letting Britian be the currency or commodity exchange using the EURO or the insurance underwriter or the investment banker perfering instead NYC (eight hours away). Wall Street will start working in two shifts and will double in money size.
None of that will happen. England will finally be free of Euro restrictions and their financial industry will double.
5
I think you do the "British thinkers and pundits" a disservice. I'm British and actually really appreciate hearing what other countires have to say/think about the whole situation.
Iagree that as this column states, staying in the EU is the lesser of 2 evils. However; the key sentence of Paul Krugman is : "Nobody ever seems to acknowledge or learn from mistakes". The Nobody is the usual suspects, our establishment Politicians. The rise of folks such as Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump is because established politicians never seem to aknowledge let alone deal with problems of the average folks. The Result is radical solutions such as Brexit and populist politicians who talk frankly about the average person's concerns, with no guarantee their solutionns will make the problems aknowledged better or worse. The UK is looking at the Brexit, Americans at Donald Trump. Both are exits from Politics as usual.
13
Because average folks are susceptible to snake oil salesmen. I guess they are too distracted. Example: must cut the deficits, but A Clockwork Orange wants a $9 trillion tax cut, while the Speaker of the House is itching to cut our frayed social safety net.
also think Brexit would be mistake for the reasons mentioned except for one, i.e. the EU’s economic and monetary situation. The present situation is unacceptable, but the aspiration to build a political union is important for an European future to believe in.
It is always more important to strengthen cooperation than engage in separation. The EMU is not perfect, but its monetary cooperation is part of a global effort to bring about more monetary unions which can lead to an international monetary union with its own global central bank. In Verhagen 2012 "The Tierra Solution: Resolving the climate crisis through monetary transformation" (www.timun.net) he conceptual, institutional, ethical and strategic dimensions of a carbon-based international monetary system are presented of such international monetary union with a balance of payments system that would not only account for financial, but also climate credits and debts.
It is always more important to strengthen cooperation than engage in separation. The EMU is not perfect, but its monetary cooperation is part of a global effort to bring about more monetary unions which can lead to an international monetary union with its own global central bank. In Verhagen 2012 "The Tierra Solution: Resolving the climate crisis through monetary transformation" (www.timun.net) he conceptual, institutional, ethical and strategic dimensions of a carbon-based international monetary system are presented of such international monetary union with a balance of payments system that would not only account for financial, but also climate credits and debts.
You are right that it's more important to cooperate then separate, but that's the core issue the Brits (and the EU) are facing: no cooperation. Germany has taken a "live with our mandate" approach to monetary policy within the EU, and Brussels has long embraced a "top – down" bureaucrat mandate regarding trade, commerce, and so much more else within the EU.
So for many, there is no actual experience of cooperation with in the EU. The recent immigration crisis is telling: there is no unified response to an obvious and terrible – an ongoing – event. So who could blame Brits who view the EU as a low benefit diminution of their sovereignty?
So for many, there is no actual experience of cooperation with in the EU. The recent immigration crisis is telling: there is no unified response to an obvious and terrible – an ongoing – event. So who could blame Brits who view the EU as a low benefit diminution of their sovereignty?
7
"I’d do it in full awareness that the E.U. is deeply dysfunctional ..."
This from a country where the Senate refuses to consider a Supreme Court nominee and where Bozo the Clown is the presumptive nominee for President from one of the two major parties ?
This from a country where the Senate refuses to consider a Supreme Court nominee and where Bozo the Clown is the presumptive nominee for President from one of the two major parties ?
516
"where Bozo the Clown is the presumptive nominee for President "
I take offense, monsieur! Bozo the Clown would be a much better choice than Donald Trump.
I take offense, monsieur! Bozo the Clown would be a much better choice than Donald Trump.
3
Dysfunctional Republicans..... The rest of are quite sane.
How is Ms Le Pen these days?
How is Ms Le Pen these days?
1
Touché'!
1
One of the great disappointment's about the EU has been the constant failure of the UK to take a leading role in charting its future direction. Since the time of Thatcher and her determination to get back "our money", the EU in the UK has been portrayed as a cunning plot by european countries to get their hands on the UKs' wealth.
If the UK had been a driving force and built the alliances needed, they could have been in a position to block the move towards monetary union. Instead, they gave the leadership position to Germany and France and sat carping on the sidelines. This would never have happened in the heyday of British diplomacy, when Pitt, Gladstone and Disraeli knew very well the importance of alliances to get what they wanted.
British influence has declined dramatically, but mostly it has been from lack of engagement. The leave campaign is constantly carping about how bad the EU is, forgetting that they have made no effort to change it. It's a bit like the Republican party in the US constantly complaining about government when they actually could be doing something positive.
If the UK had been a driving force and built the alliances needed, they could have been in a position to block the move towards monetary union. Instead, they gave the leadership position to Germany and France and sat carping on the sidelines. This would never have happened in the heyday of British diplomacy, when Pitt, Gladstone and Disraeli knew very well the importance of alliances to get what they wanted.
British influence has declined dramatically, but mostly it has been from lack of engagement. The leave campaign is constantly carping about how bad the EU is, forgetting that they have made no effort to change it. It's a bit like the Republican party in the US constantly complaining about government when they actually could be doing something positive.
14
In a lot of referendums of the same nature (Quebec in 1980 and 1995, Scotland in 2014 come to mind), a lot of supposedly important and wise people like Mr Krugman always tell the world the importance of maintaining the status quo. Numbers get thrown around. Doomsday scenarios abound. Nationalistic pride plays a role too. Common sense? A little.
For once, I'd love to see the other side win to find out exactly how things will turn out. Because the status quo will not change any of the things people don't like about the EU. And maybe a yes vote to Brexit won't make a difference. At least Britons won't have the excuse of blaming all their problems on bureaucrats in Brussels.
For once, I'd love to see the other side win to find out exactly how things will turn out. Because the status quo will not change any of the things people don't like about the EU. And maybe a yes vote to Brexit won't make a difference. At least Britons won't have the excuse of blaming all their problems on bureaucrats in Brussels.
7
"For once, I'd love to see the other side win to find out exactly how things will turn out."
And if your "experiment" goes kablooie, will you own up to your responsibility, too?
And if your "experiment" goes kablooie, will you own up to your responsibility, too?
1
I think economy is a clear argument, but there are others.
We live in strange times; the EU is being blamed for being too integrated, too much political union, but on the other hand it is also being blamed for not being to handle effectively the refugee crisis and other turbulent shocks to the continent. To be more effective and swift, clearly more integration would be needed, and more powertransfer towards the "supra-national" elements.
On the other hand, the EU is becoming much less supranaitonal (with the clear exception of the euro) and more and more intergovernmental, not in small measure because of the UK pushing for it.
European countries need the EU to be able to respond to the great global challenges of our time. Could New Jersey or Rhode Island be a global player? Could it make favourable trade deals with China? How would the balance change vis-a-vis Russia? It is a continent under pressure from all sides (Russia, ME and North Africa). The disintegration of the EU would be a big geopolitical gamble.
Brits are known for their comon sense and doing the sensible thing. I hope they will live up to their reputation and at the referendum will vote remain. I also hope that this result would mean that finally the UK decides to become a fully engaged member of the EU, a true partner, and driver of the continent's future.
We live in strange times; the EU is being blamed for being too integrated, too much political union, but on the other hand it is also being blamed for not being to handle effectively the refugee crisis and other turbulent shocks to the continent. To be more effective and swift, clearly more integration would be needed, and more powertransfer towards the "supra-national" elements.
On the other hand, the EU is becoming much less supranaitonal (with the clear exception of the euro) and more and more intergovernmental, not in small measure because of the UK pushing for it.
European countries need the EU to be able to respond to the great global challenges of our time. Could New Jersey or Rhode Island be a global player? Could it make favourable trade deals with China? How would the balance change vis-a-vis Russia? It is a continent under pressure from all sides (Russia, ME and North Africa). The disintegration of the EU would be a big geopolitical gamble.
Brits are known for their comon sense and doing the sensible thing. I hope they will live up to their reputation and at the referendum will vote remain. I also hope that this result would mean that finally the UK decides to become a fully engaged member of the EU, a true partner, and driver of the continent's future.
11
Thank you, NMF for taking a truly global perspective. I hope I'm wrong, but it seems that we in Europe will only learn this the hard way.
Again.
Again.
1
And as I still remember Paul Krugman advocating for a Grexit - I'm a bit confused?
Okay - the 'Grexit' was in order for the Greece to get 'their own' currency.
But as in Greece it was estimated that exiting the Euro would lead to a devaluation of about 50 percent the 20 to 30 percent for the Pound aren't 'that' bad.
Or are they?
Well - the hundred of thousand of Brits who live in Spain or anywhere else in Southern Europe will think: It's vere, very bad - even if bey returning to their homeland - and after their housing bubble woulkd have gotten deflated (by Brexit) - there might be some more affordable housing again...?
Okay - the 'Grexit' was in order for the Greece to get 'their own' currency.
But as in Greece it was estimated that exiting the Euro would lead to a devaluation of about 50 percent the 20 to 30 percent for the Pound aren't 'that' bad.
Or are they?
Well - the hundred of thousand of Brits who live in Spain or anywhere else in Southern Europe will think: It's vere, very bad - even if bey returning to their homeland - and after their housing bubble woulkd have gotten deflated (by Brexit) - there might be some more affordable housing again...?
3
Btw the UK still has the pound.
1
'Btw the UK still has the pound.'
That's what I'm saying - If it would have the Euro there would be no devaluation after a Brexit.
That's what I'm saying - If it would have the Euro there would be no devaluation after a Brexit.
A typically vacillating - and tiresome - piece by Krugman.
Centralized planning and dictates from on high failed and ultimately brought down the USSR. The same is now happening with the EU, first with the failed response to the financial crisis, but now most dramatically with the immigration crisis. The people of the UK and most of Europe are completely at odds with open border policies being shoved down their throats by a sequestered and pampered elite.
Krugman and the bureaucratic nabobs in Brussels, Paris and Berlin can scold common people all they want about their alleged xenophobia - the man and woman on the street know when an invading horde is at their doorstep, even over the threshold, ready and willing to pillage their land, destroy their culture and eradicating them.
Brexit may just be the vanguard of the EU's demise and the nations of Europe reclaiming and reasserting their respective national identities and cultures. Let's just hope it isn't too late.
Centralized planning and dictates from on high failed and ultimately brought down the USSR. The same is now happening with the EU, first with the failed response to the financial crisis, but now most dramatically with the immigration crisis. The people of the UK and most of Europe are completely at odds with open border policies being shoved down their throats by a sequestered and pampered elite.
Krugman and the bureaucratic nabobs in Brussels, Paris and Berlin can scold common people all they want about their alleged xenophobia - the man and woman on the street know when an invading horde is at their doorstep, even over the threshold, ready and willing to pillage their land, destroy their culture and eradicating them.
Brexit may just be the vanguard of the EU's demise and the nations of Europe reclaiming and reasserting their respective national identities and cultures. Let's just hope it isn't too late.
70
In the past these "national identities and cultures" were chiefly expressed by trying to slaughter one another every 20 to 30 years.
I suppose a good thing could be made by selling them munitions and ambulances.
I suppose a good thing could be made by selling them munitions and ambulances.
3
The EU got too big too fast, leading to many of the issues inciting the Brexiters.
"Brexit may just be the vanguard of the EU's demise and the nations of Europe reclaiming and reasserting their respective national identities and cultures. Let's just hope it isn't too late. "
Great. Stay tuned for WWIII.
Great. Stay tuned for WWIII.
1
"True, some Brexit advocates claim that leaving the E.U. would free Britain to do wonderful things — to deregulate and unleash the magic of markets, leading to explosive growth."
Thanks for decoding Brexit, Dr. Kruman, a referendum I've never truly understood economically or politically. The above statement, however, I do understand: the perennial promise to let "magic markets" unleash growth. We hear that here, time after time. But markets can't be 'magic' without consumer spending. And although you didn't touch on that except to say that the Brexit choices are bad (remain) and worse (leave), I'm assuming that British consumption would tank with a "leave" decision.
Your second point, on the politics of the EU, is more disturbing. "The E.U.’s failures have produced a frightening rise in reactionary, racist nationalism — but Brexit would, all too probably, empower those forces even more, both in Britain and all across the Continent." Reactionary racist nationalism is playing throught the English speaking world, from the mess created in the Middle East (thank you Cheney and Bush!).
One can't underestimate the stabilizing power of the UK in any economic/political union irrespective if they use the pound or not. Britain is America's greatest ally, and a voice of reason despite its own internal issues, as reflected in the shocking gun death of an MP yesterday.
It they were to exit, it would seem to me to be a sign that the whole enterprise is doomed.
Thanks for decoding Brexit, Dr. Kruman, a referendum I've never truly understood economically or politically. The above statement, however, I do understand: the perennial promise to let "magic markets" unleash growth. We hear that here, time after time. But markets can't be 'magic' without consumer spending. And although you didn't touch on that except to say that the Brexit choices are bad (remain) and worse (leave), I'm assuming that British consumption would tank with a "leave" decision.
Your second point, on the politics of the EU, is more disturbing. "The E.U.’s failures have produced a frightening rise in reactionary, racist nationalism — but Brexit would, all too probably, empower those forces even more, both in Britain and all across the Continent." Reactionary racist nationalism is playing throught the English speaking world, from the mess created in the Middle East (thank you Cheney and Bush!).
One can't underestimate the stabilizing power of the UK in any economic/political union irrespective if they use the pound or not. Britain is America's greatest ally, and a voice of reason despite its own internal issues, as reflected in the shocking gun death of an MP yesterday.
It they were to exit, it would seem to me to be a sign that the whole enterprise is doomed.
36
Greatest ally? O, Canada!
Th truth is, Brexiters don't care about the economic argument, the complexity of trade deals, or quantifying the actual effects on living standards.
They're dedicated to a kind of jingoistic "we're called Great Britain for a reason" sloganeering. The delusional belief that the most right-wing members of the Conservative party are going through all this in order to improve the lot of the common man and reduce inequality just puts a bow on the whole thing.
They're voting to stick to the establishment and out of a belief that they have to "get their country back". If that sounds familiar, well, there's a reason for that.
They're dedicated to a kind of jingoistic "we're called Great Britain for a reason" sloganeering. The delusional belief that the most right-wing members of the Conservative party are going through all this in order to improve the lot of the common man and reduce inequality just puts a bow on the whole thing.
They're voting to stick to the establishment and out of a belief that they have to "get their country back". If that sounds familiar, well, there's a reason for that.
111
Then why is Cameron so desperately against Brexit? Another false flag operation? I don't think so.
The Brexiters know that all the rich and powerful people, Labour, Liberal, and Conservative, are against Brexit. That's why they're for it.
The Brexiters know that all the rich and powerful people, Labour, Liberal, and Conservative, are against Brexit. That's why they're for it.
5
I used to work for Brits. They still think of themselves as empire builders and willingly say so. I found Britain sort of dismal and pathetic. Too gloomy.
Global economies show slowing growth, top heavy wealth, and stagnant wages. Like a weather system, top heavy wealth sits on top of the world; inert, moving slowly, limiting the moves England and even the US can make. Apple's cash alone puts it in the world's top 50 GDPs. Ten US companies collectively are hoarding $1.75 trillion--offshore!
A big part of England's problem is wealth has become its own class; its global protections ignore national needs and drags on job creation (esp. in Africa, under state-run economies (Nigeria, Zimbabwe)). Politics no longer reflects the economic order! Win or lose, England is tied to old market paradigms that are broken and probably unfixable, yet it reminds bound by convention to a traditional either/or.
The real answer is neither! Rapid, sustained national success has come to depend on three factors: an absence of corruption (including power sharing, cash controls, and working standards), close collaboration between government and enterprise (China's global models (the top investor in Latin America/the Caribbean!), Rwanda), and a niche with long term demand (Brasil's commodities, Russian gas).
The new economies will be planned; not internally, but directed teamwork toward markets while unleashing new visions of value and benefits (REIT data centers; REIT senior housing). Unfortunately, next week's vote in England is guided by the past and is stuck in the present. Both its options are reluctant ones and neither offer a firm future fix.
A big part of England's problem is wealth has become its own class; its global protections ignore national needs and drags on job creation (esp. in Africa, under state-run economies (Nigeria, Zimbabwe)). Politics no longer reflects the economic order! Win or lose, England is tied to old market paradigms that are broken and probably unfixable, yet it reminds bound by convention to a traditional either/or.
The real answer is neither! Rapid, sustained national success has come to depend on three factors: an absence of corruption (including power sharing, cash controls, and working standards), close collaboration between government and enterprise (China's global models (the top investor in Latin America/the Caribbean!), Rwanda), and a niche with long term demand (Brasil's commodities, Russian gas).
The new economies will be planned; not internally, but directed teamwork toward markets while unleashing new visions of value and benefits (REIT data centers; REIT senior housing). Unfortunately, next week's vote in England is guided by the past and is stuck in the present. Both its options are reluctant ones and neither offer a firm future fix.
18
Walter, you're in my hometown, and I always love reading your comments.
You've got a beautiful mind and frequently your comments border on poetry, the thoughts are so thoroughly composed.
Thanks for sharing.
You've got a beautiful mind and frequently your comments border on poetry, the thoughts are so thoroughly composed.
Thanks for sharing.
1
Dear Mr. Krugman,
Sounds just like trying to decide if one's car with 180,000 miles on it is worth fixing or just junking the thing and buying a new one.
The EU, as you explain, seems to have the same old "nationality" problem the old, pre-EU Europe had, with the French being very French, the Germans behaving like Germans always have and the rest of Europe just "going along for the ride".
England has it's own identity much like a Western version of the Russians in the East. Is England REALLY "European" or is it as different from the "mainland" as the elusive Russian "identity"?
I think those voting for leaving the EU are of the "England Stands Alone" stripe and no matter of logic or finance holds sway. Hence your arguments, based on logic and finance, may fall on deaf ears especially on those who wish a return to the "British Empire" way of doing things.
In either case, I really do not think the ripple effect of a British exit would be as dire as people seem to think.
Sounds just like trying to decide if one's car with 180,000 miles on it is worth fixing or just junking the thing and buying a new one.
The EU, as you explain, seems to have the same old "nationality" problem the old, pre-EU Europe had, with the French being very French, the Germans behaving like Germans always have and the rest of Europe just "going along for the ride".
England has it's own identity much like a Western version of the Russians in the East. Is England REALLY "European" or is it as different from the "mainland" as the elusive Russian "identity"?
I think those voting for leaving the EU are of the "England Stands Alone" stripe and no matter of logic or finance holds sway. Hence your arguments, based on logic and finance, may fall on deaf ears especially on those who wish a return to the "British Empire" way of doing things.
In either case, I really do not think the ripple effect of a British exit would be as dire as people seem to think.
4
The same petty, peevish, pettifogging complaints were heard in the early days of the American union. "States rights" became a rallying cry for discontents.
They willfully forgot the sacrifices made by their forebears to get them were they were. Instead of treating the problems of the day as growing pains, and working to address them, they wore them as badges of despair.
Self-absorbed, self-righteous, shallow, and self-seeking, they did no honor to the noble enterprise of which they were privileged to be a part.
So too, today, a generation of spoiled whiners, "les enfants terrible," are choking the media with their failure of heart, too lazy and selfish to pick up the standard and slog it forward.
My father taught me that we all have an obligation to make the world a better place than the one we found. Otherwise we are free-riding.
They willfully forgot the sacrifices made by their forebears to get them were they were. Instead of treating the problems of the day as growing pains, and working to address them, they wore them as badges of despair.
Self-absorbed, self-righteous, shallow, and self-seeking, they did no honor to the noble enterprise of which they were privileged to be a part.
So too, today, a generation of spoiled whiners, "les enfants terrible," are choking the media with their failure of heart, too lazy and selfish to pick up the standard and slog it forward.
My father taught me that we all have an obligation to make the world a better place than the one we found. Otherwise we are free-riding.
63
The heart of the issue.
The EU, from it's inception, was explicitly NOT about forming Europe into one nation.
Your assumption, noble as it sounds, is what has the Brits in a lather. They simply don't want to be more like the French (or the Germans, etc.) and I think the feeling is mutual. The Brits just fired the first volley. No surprise there.
The EU, from it's inception, was explicitly NOT about forming Europe into one nation.
Your assumption, noble as it sounds, is what has the Brits in a lather. They simply don't want to be more like the French (or the Germans, etc.) and I think the feeling is mutual. The Brits just fired the first volley. No surprise there.
5
"Self-absorbed, self-righteous, shallow, and self-seeking, they did no honor to the noble enterprise of which they were privileged to be a part."
Lot of that going around Ron. See US Congress, Trump, Republicans generally, and right wingers everywhere. The offshoot of this international trend toward tribalism, as others point out, is to encourage hate crimes and wars.
Lot of that going around Ron. See US Congress, Trump, Republicans generally, and right wingers everywhere. The offshoot of this international trend toward tribalism, as others point out, is to encourage hate crimes and wars.
1
My own support for “remain” is stronger than Paul’s, and my reasons are different; so, I have less ambivalence about it than he does.
What the world is seeing, whether it’s religion in the Middle East, or Britain considering Brexit, or even Texas trying to define only for Texas what it means to be an American on abortion … is a return to tribalism, rejecting forces of unity that make bigger and more viable human realities than the sums of their components. We seem to be losing the ability to cohere, because it’s difficult to find middle grounds on convictions, folkways and interests.
To me, this means that the likelihood of wars and profitless distractions that unnecessarily pit tribe against tribe instead of collectively seeking to cure cancer or conquer the stars … increases dramatically. Together, we’re less likely to threaten our own interests because they’re closely interwoven with the interests of others; and more likely to use all that energy and those resources to secure productive ends instead of emotional (and real) bloodletting. Apart, we’re more likely to become distracted by a need to defend perceived threats to unitary interests.
Brexit is a tribal impulse, as secession by some of our states was in 1861. Beyond Paul’s convictions that it would leave Britain poorer, its impact would be to sever the potential of the British peoples to participate in human movements forward they cannot make just on their own; and the Brits should want to avoid that.
What the world is seeing, whether it’s religion in the Middle East, or Britain considering Brexit, or even Texas trying to define only for Texas what it means to be an American on abortion … is a return to tribalism, rejecting forces of unity that make bigger and more viable human realities than the sums of their components. We seem to be losing the ability to cohere, because it’s difficult to find middle grounds on convictions, folkways and interests.
To me, this means that the likelihood of wars and profitless distractions that unnecessarily pit tribe against tribe instead of collectively seeking to cure cancer or conquer the stars … increases dramatically. Together, we’re less likely to threaten our own interests because they’re closely interwoven with the interests of others; and more likely to use all that energy and those resources to secure productive ends instead of emotional (and real) bloodletting. Apart, we’re more likely to become distracted by a need to defend perceived threats to unitary interests.
Brexit is a tribal impulse, as secession by some of our states was in 1861. Beyond Paul’s convictions that it would leave Britain poorer, its impact would be to sever the potential of the British peoples to participate in human movements forward they cannot make just on their own; and the Brits should want to avoid that.
102
Brilliant post! One of your best. Its logic and insight fit with and enhance by its insights what I wrote: [http://nyti.ms/1YwdLVY].
3
List than, thy name is false equivalency! Bee it is nothing like the secession of states over slavery. Cmon man!
3
By extension, as far as you are concerned, nations are also "tribes", and you are against tribes. I am in favor of the rights of sovereign nations to exist, and their right to defend the interests of their own citizens. I don't know how the Brits should vote, but I know for a fact that Globalism has destroyed millions of lives here in the US, whether you admit it or not.
6
Firstly I would like to thank Professor Krugman for the video he gave us of the CUNY conference on Inequality.
I was however distressed that when introduced as a "political economist" Professor Krugman did not strenuously object. Political economists study law. They begin their journey at law school and if they remain academics they teach at law school and it is political economists that define the mechanisms that govern the E.U. or international agreements like NAFTA.
The problem with globalism and neoliberalism is not the economics it is the law. It is a European legal system that might always triumphs over right. It is that European mind set that has meant Mexico and Canada always lose any dispute with their American counterparts even when they win in court.
The job of Paul Krugman to provide with the economics and it is the job of democracy to provide us with the law. Globalism has provided us a mechanism to grow our economy but has failed miserably in providing a legal system that assures that growing inequality is not a consequence of globalism.
The EU is not a failure it is a victim of a philosophy where might makes right. The political economists have determined that international law trumps constitutions. For globalism to work we must again look to put a blindfold on justice and find a way for democracy to survive where political economists say their international law is supreme.
Asymmetrical economies need rules that address asymmetry.
I was however distressed that when introduced as a "political economist" Professor Krugman did not strenuously object. Political economists study law. They begin their journey at law school and if they remain academics they teach at law school and it is political economists that define the mechanisms that govern the E.U. or international agreements like NAFTA.
The problem with globalism and neoliberalism is not the economics it is the law. It is a European legal system that might always triumphs over right. It is that European mind set that has meant Mexico and Canada always lose any dispute with their American counterparts even when they win in court.
The job of Paul Krugman to provide with the economics and it is the job of democracy to provide us with the law. Globalism has provided us a mechanism to grow our economy but has failed miserably in providing a legal system that assures that growing inequality is not a consequence of globalism.
The EU is not a failure it is a victim of a philosophy where might makes right. The political economists have determined that international law trumps constitutions. For globalism to work we must again look to put a blindfold on justice and find a way for democracy to survive where political economists say their international law is supreme.
Asymmetrical economies need rules that address asymmetry.
13
If the EU were like NAFTA then we would not be having this referendum. The EU had its own parliament with an unelected executive (the European Commission) & courts which have supremacy over UK law. An EU flag and EU national anthem. EU freedom of movement which was fine until poorer Eastern European countries joined which then led to mass migration with millions moving to the UK in a short space of time which had seen wage compression for low wage workers.
So the issue is not the economy (Turkey & Norway & Greenland etc all are outside the EU with access to the EU single market) it is about democracy and who governs us - our elected UK Parliament or an unelected EU commission in Brussels?
So the issue is not the economy (Turkey & Norway & Greenland etc all are outside the EU with access to the EU single market) it is about democracy and who governs us - our elected UK Parliament or an unelected EU commission in Brussels?
5
Kilsally,
The problem with NAFTA is exactly the problem Mexicans have with NAFTA. It is the legal problems that shortchanged Mexico every step of the way. NAFTA is a US designed legal document designed to protect wealth and property.
I was as always going to say it is much like what went on in the British Parliament from 1845-1850 when one million Irish peasants starved to death to protect an economy based on the export of meat, dairy, and other foodstuffs.
The economists may have been correct about how best to protect the Irish economy and the political economists wrote the Corn Laws to protect that economy one million died of starvation, millions more suffered unbelievable horrors.
In a democracy the law is there to help provide amelioration from an economic system that writes laws to help an economic system but has little regard for the welfare of the people.
I am delighted you wrote from Northern Ireland where obedience to the law saw millions die of starvation while the laws protected the food exporters and their right to give their food only to those who could afford it.
While I agree the problem is with the law I will state that NAFTA is far worse than the EU because it is written for the 10% to protect the 10% and has the backup of the strongest military and financial network the world has ever known.
For Mexico and Canada getting out from under the yoke is far more complex than voting to exit NAFTA. We will not have a June 23rd referendum.
The problem with NAFTA is exactly the problem Mexicans have with NAFTA. It is the legal problems that shortchanged Mexico every step of the way. NAFTA is a US designed legal document designed to protect wealth and property.
I was as always going to say it is much like what went on in the British Parliament from 1845-1850 when one million Irish peasants starved to death to protect an economy based on the export of meat, dairy, and other foodstuffs.
The economists may have been correct about how best to protect the Irish economy and the political economists wrote the Corn Laws to protect that economy one million died of starvation, millions more suffered unbelievable horrors.
In a democracy the law is there to help provide amelioration from an economic system that writes laws to help an economic system but has little regard for the welfare of the people.
I am delighted you wrote from Northern Ireland where obedience to the law saw millions die of starvation while the laws protected the food exporters and their right to give their food only to those who could afford it.
While I agree the problem is with the law I will state that NAFTA is far worse than the EU because it is written for the 10% to protect the 10% and has the backup of the strongest military and financial network the world has ever known.
For Mexico and Canada getting out from under the yoke is far more complex than voting to exit NAFTA. We will not have a June 23rd referendum.
2
It all comes down to whether it is better to be more in control or less in control of your own country. This should be a no brainer in any democracy. It's impossible to place a value on self actualization for citizens of any country.
Freedom is priceless and any opportunity to grasp more of it should not be turned away.
Vote for Brexit!
Freedom is priceless and any opportunity to grasp more of it should not be turned away.
Vote for Brexit!
38
Vote Brexit. Vote the end of the European Project. Vote Donald Trump. Vote Recession. Vote Decline. Vote Conflict.
2
"Self actualization" is a delusion!
It would be sad if our British friends would leave but for them to stay - it would have helped a lot if all the mechanists of finance -(including Paul Krugman) would have opted for a Brexit.
And I say that without any irony - and as another commenter already have mentioned: The fact that 'the Financial -(and all other) 'Establishment' is trying to hang on - might finally lead to the Brexit.
And I say that without any irony - and as another commenter already have mentioned: The fact that 'the Financial -(and all other) 'Establishment' is trying to hang on - might finally lead to the Brexit.
2
Paul, I'm confused as to how "in" the British currently are. If the country controls its own currency, it seems to stand alone. Will you please devote a future column to explaining the ties that bind Britain to Europe? Certainly, they aren't the same as the ones that tie Italy or France.
I would also appreciate it if you would explain how Britain leaving the EU would differ from, say, Texas leaving the US. Would the Europeans cheer?
I would also appreciate it if you would explain how Britain leaving the EU would differ from, say, Texas leaving the US. Would the Europeans cheer?
10
If Texas leaves the US, the rest of us will be spared the terrible politicians they throw into the national arena, Bush and Cruz and such; the attempts to inflict creationism on us through their textbooks, etc. Britain inflicts no such burden on the EU.
176
Perhaps the Europeans wouldn't cheer if Texas left the US: but many or most Americans would.
54
In reply to Jack Mahoney:
One of the difficulties in any large political grouping is that people in it have distorted views of that grouping's other parts. I'm as guilty as the rest. I am reminded of the New Yorker front cover years ago showing a map of the US as seen by a Boston resident. Boston-New York-Washington was carefully rendered, but there was virtually nothing between the Connecticut river and San Francisco.
I think this kind of unconscious bias dogs us all in evaluating the Brexit issue. I was born in the US Midwest and was thoroughly steeped as a child in British culture: BBC, Lord of the Rings, Monty Python, the whole bit. I was vaguely aware that there were the Troubled Areas, where English wasn't spoken and Bad Things Happened. As an adult, I have spent many months in Austria, Germany, and France learning languages. Many of my classmates were from Eastern Europe or economically disadvantaged parts of Western Europe. Through these people and through navigating daily life in Western Europe I began to see that the EU is vastly wider and more complex than just the British part.
Jack, I suspect you are right about the analogy with Texas. Perhaps this is Europe's analogy to the US Civil War. If Brexit succeeds we may all get to see what it would have been like if the Union States had simply allowed the Confederate States to secede.
One of the difficulties in any large political grouping is that people in it have distorted views of that grouping's other parts. I'm as guilty as the rest. I am reminded of the New Yorker front cover years ago showing a map of the US as seen by a Boston resident. Boston-New York-Washington was carefully rendered, but there was virtually nothing between the Connecticut river and San Francisco.
I think this kind of unconscious bias dogs us all in evaluating the Brexit issue. I was born in the US Midwest and was thoroughly steeped as a child in British culture: BBC, Lord of the Rings, Monty Python, the whole bit. I was vaguely aware that there were the Troubled Areas, where English wasn't spoken and Bad Things Happened. As an adult, I have spent many months in Austria, Germany, and France learning languages. Many of my classmates were from Eastern Europe or economically disadvantaged parts of Western Europe. Through these people and through navigating daily life in Western Europe I began to see that the EU is vastly wider and more complex than just the British part.
Jack, I suspect you are right about the analogy with Texas. Perhaps this is Europe's analogy to the US Civil War. If Brexit succeeds we may all get to see what it would have been like if the Union States had simply allowed the Confederate States to secede.
8
About this "crisis" - isn't it great that it is one in which the US - finally - has no dog in the fight - and no consequence.- or competence.
6
not unless one believes in the corporate control of the world economies.
3
The EU admitted a fatal flaw when it permitted the creation of the basket of currencies, its euro. Britain wisely refrained from adopting the euro as its currency for reasons quite similar to those voiced in Dr Krugman's column. And as he pointed out, the atavistic urge to autarky that we call the "free market" didn't work out for any nation in the last 150 years. Still, let the Brits dispense with their ties to the continent. I look forward to watching this experiment.
4
The vast majority of people (voters) feel like no one ever has their interests in mind when decisions are made that effect their lives. So now that they have a chance to make a decision that may effect the elites lives they can't wait to do it.No matter that it may hurt them too.
17
Wouldn't it be fun to hear Trump define the word "Brexit"? And no matter what answer he fabricates, he'll declare that no one can "Brexit" better than himself!
7
The Donald would simply avoid any discussion of policy issues and propose a new global currency which would permanently solve all trade, all business, all monetary problems worldwide -- the TRUMPLE! featuring, of course, a picture of himself and "In Trump We Trust" God Save the Queen, and all of Us.
3
I have NEVER heard about a divorce that was amicable, despite the parties' best intentions. Someone always gets hurt, and often there's much collatoral damage. In this case, I definitely do not think that the "Leave" party has either Britain's or the EU's best interests at heart -- only their own small-minded immediate power-grab. If Brexit becomes a reality here -- and should Trump somehow win in November -- Canada wouldn't be far enough. I'd rather a one-way ticket to the moon!
7
The problem is that the UK never voted for this "marriage" on the first place. It joined the EEC for trade not to cede sovereignty to a budding United States of Europe (with am unelected European Commission as the executive)
3
It is almost never about rational choices, it is who can tell the most appealing story. The "story" about faceless EU Bureaucrats and immigrants has a lot of appeal. The fact that the whole austerity and neo-con fairy tale about the glories of the free market was (and is) the product of the same propaganda organs, and has led to so many of the problems in the developed world, well, that just doesn't appear in the propaganda organs.
It's all about who has the best sound bites.
It's all about who has the best sound bites.
6
Orc,
You might want to listen to the "Sound Bites" from Cambodia and Cuba or perhaps North Korea!
You might want to listen to the "Sound Bites" from Cambodia and Cuba or perhaps North Korea!
"Nobody ever seems to acknowledge or learn from mistakes."
For sure: we reelected Reagan and "W", and the results were a nightmare we are still trying to end.
The same cast of characters argue for Trump.
Are we as dumb as a box of rocks?
For sure: we reelected Reagan and "W", and the results were a nightmare we are still trying to end.
The same cast of characters argue for Trump.
Are we as dumb as a box of rocks?
389
Sadly (and unlike far too many of us), a box of rocks perched a foot from a chasm will not feel the need to heed the call of those who claim to be the vox populi as they extoll the virtues of going over the edge and plummeting to almost certain doom.
Not dumb as a box of rocks. Just easily persuaded. Gullible in our optimism that different is always better.
1
Uh, no, the "same cast of characters" are not arguing for Trump. Trump has expressed isolationist ideas as far as foreign policy goes, clearly the opposite of both Bush and Reagan. Trump opposes TPP, another globalist treaty that helps the Vietnamese at the expense of US workers. Trump has promised, at least, to protest SS and Medicare, unlike Bush. I am not for Trump, but at least be honest, please.
Surprising that there's so little credible creativity happening. The Euro is a disaster yet no one wants to discuss reform. Returning to individual currencies while retaining the Euro as a reserve currency might be a boon. Computers and smartphones could paper over exchange while giving countries like Greece the ability to inflate out of their mess. At the same time, legislating against Brussels on issues like immigration might force a reexamination. But nothing of the kind seems to be happening. Instead we're simply seeing a tantrum caused by lack of leadership all around Europe.
8
Returning to national currency will let the southern zone of the EU use a J curve to increase tourism and grow their economies
I do not think that you can be ambivalent on a problem as important as this. If Britain leaves the EU, it will show the way to other countries which are thinking about referendums too. The EU may fall apart with tremendous economic and political consequences. Nationalism is getting bad in Europe and Britain’s exit will compound the problem. If Britain leaves the EU, it will not be able to influence any of the EU decisions that will affect it. Britain is not trapped in the euro, the major economic problem in the EU, like other countries. Let Britain stay in the EU and influence the major decisions impacting Europe. I hope that, with a referendum so close, the bureaucrats in Brussels, learned the lesson and realized that the EU cannot be run by bureaucratic fiat.
6
The rise of the Leave seems to be negatively correlated with which discredited elite gasbag gets run out to pitch Remain. Think of it. Tony Blair comes of the bench to pinch hit. Brexit probability goes up. Same with Gordie Brown. Spews the claptrap about how bad the consequences of Leave will be, the common man takes the other side. And of course the worst intervention by a discredited establishment cretan, Jamie Dimon enters the fray with what he thinks JP Morgan will do. Brexit probability soars. Ok, they all have their opinions. And if the truth be know the economic negatives with Brexit outweigh the goods. But the common man on the street now smells rotten fish when the political and economic elites surface from the slimy bottom to pitch a deal. I wonder why that is?
89
Over the last ten years I've heard traditional English people complain that they have a small land mass and cannot continue forever to accept influx of hundreds of thousands of continental migrants leave alone those from the less developed world. National identity is at stake, as well as their green spaces shrinking with needed housing estates. 2% drop in GDP is a small price for them to avoid the negative effects stemming from Brussels. (I've even heard Edward the Confessor excoriated for giving England away to the French in the 11th century.) The British psyche is steeped in their history.
An unstable globe with more billions of people hoping to reach the EU appears in the offing to them. Their perceived and frightening prospect.
An unstable globe with more billions of people hoping to reach the EU appears in the offing to them. Their perceived and frightening prospect.
41
Actually, they DO have a small land mass. Please look at a map and compare the land mass of the UK (or Denmark, or Germany, or France, or Italy, or Greece, or even the US) with the land mass of Canada. Why should the fears and actual lives of British citizens matter less to the UK government than the lives of non UK citizens?
1
Germany got what it always wanted and blew it. It had economic dominance over a united Europe and, through arrogance and indifference, bungled the politics. In other words, they didn't lead, they just dictated terms. Germany should be digesting some humble pie and be bending over backwards to keep Britain in the EU. They could end up being on a crewless ship with all the life boats gone.
290
It is capitalism, that's all!
Dear Ralph,
I guess you have a real clear view of how Europe works from New Preston, CT. Thanks so much for your lovely metaphor as well about the 'crewless ship' and 'lifeboats'. Very informative on the future of Europe.
I guess you have a real clear view of how Europe works from New Preston, CT. Thanks so much for your lovely metaphor as well about the 'crewless ship' and 'lifeboats'. Very informative on the future of Europe.
Replace "Germany" with Merkel and you are closer to the truth.
They will retain their freedom and hopefully can better avoid the threat of terrorism. They can join with US, Canada, New Zealand, and Australia to form an economic entity that could include India. We need s little creative imagination here.
16
I see:: Brexit would help manufacturing but damage the financial elite at the cost of 2% of the GDP.
A lot of people , not just in Britain, think that's not too bad a price to pay.
GDP isn't everything, even though economists believe it to be so.
A lot of people , not just in Britain, think that's not too bad a price to pay.
GDP isn't everything, even though economists believe it to be so.
252
I would be absolutely overjoyed, in the US, to damage the "elite" and wealthy and privileged, at a cost of 2% of the GDP.
In fact, it would be money very well spent.
In fact, it would be money very well spent.
2
You seem to imagine that 2% decline only hits the wealthy. That a 2% decline across the board--less jobs, less opportunity, less money.
It's not simply the wealthy that lose.
It's not simply the wealthy that lose.
4
Help Mfg by hindering access to the worlds second largest market? Huh.
In chess they call it Zugswang. You have to make a move and your
choices are lousy and less lousy.
The lesson of 2000. Not every change is for the better.
choices are lousy and less lousy.
The lesson of 2000. Not every change is for the better.
8
Having lived and worked in the UK I can understand some of the feeling there. There is still a strong feeling by many in the UK that Europe is "overseas". Nonetheless, Krugman and others are correct -- the UK would take a terrible economic hit. And I don't think that a lower pound would do that much for the north, which is still recovering from the years of Thatcherism.
46
The problem with getting economists to comment on this issue is that they are seeing the vote only through economic eyes. There are so many more things to consider: sovereignty and democracy, national identity, the lived experience of people all over the country with regards to immigration, justice in terms of making one's own laws, perceptions of bullying from the Commission and many many more.
I am personally for Out but on the basis of sovereignty alone. It exceeds all other pull factors on either side of the debate for which I readily acknowledge there are a great deal.
I am personally for Out but on the basis of sovereignty alone. It exceeds all other pull factors on either side of the debate for which I readily acknowledge there are a great deal.
271
Ironically, the same Brits who are most concerned about their sovereignty were the ones most opposed to Scottish sovereignty. Where they stand obviously depends inconsistently on where they sit.
64
Then I am sure that you support Scotland's bid for independence, on the basis of sovereignty alone, of course...
The question is whether to stand alone, or to partner for better deals for everyone, with the obvious tediousness of compromise. Sometimes sovereignty and independence are not the best advice.
The question is whether to stand alone, or to partner for better deals for everyone, with the obvious tediousness of compromise. Sometimes sovereignty and independence are not the best advice.
14
And, though nobody is talking about it very much yet, Brexit raises the real possibility of the dissolution of the United Kingdom as the Scots choose to declare their independence and join the EU as a sovereign state. Wait for the other shoe to drop.
10
I suspect that voters in the U.K. are reacting to economic forces that have nothing to do with membership in the European Union. Since the financial crisis, 80% of the jobs created in the U.K. have been in London. More than fifty percent of new college graduates in the U.K. move to London. This must mean that other parts of the country are either economically stagnant, or in decline, and I would not be surprised if the residents in those areas blame the E.U. These trends, however, are just an example of how big cities are becoming increasingly economically dominant all over the world.
344
One irony is that many of the rules and regulations that chafe in the UK are from the UK government itself, not from the EU.
Another is that most of the rest of the countries in the EU do not bother to enforce EU rules, while the UK does so, rigorously.
Will the people of the UK follow the general pattern of voting against their own economic interests?
Another is that most of the rest of the countries in the EU do not bother to enforce EU rules, while the UK does so, rigorously.
Will the people of the UK follow the general pattern of voting against their own economic interests?
90
"the E.U. is deeply dysfunctional and shows few signs of reforming" - therein lies the problem
29
UK already dodged the two worst bullets of EU, namely Euro and Schengen. The EU membership benefit is enormous, the free trade zone alone is worth the nuisance of EU bureaucracy.
Brexit has already conceded that it is bad for UK and EU economy. Now it plays the immigration card. True, being in EU means that UK must admit all EU citizens, but being outside of Schengen means UK doesn't have to admit anyone else, including refugees. Are Polish/Hungarian/French/German immigrants really the problem? If xenophobia is the selling point, Brexit doesn't even have the right product.
Brexit is not even good for identity politics, but may trigger another round of Scotland independence.
Brexit has already conceded that it is bad for UK and EU economy. Now it plays the immigration card. True, being in EU means that UK must admit all EU citizens, but being outside of Schengen means UK doesn't have to admit anyone else, including refugees. Are Polish/Hungarian/French/German immigrants really the problem? If xenophobia is the selling point, Brexit doesn't even have the right product.
Brexit is not even good for identity politics, but may trigger another round of Scotland independence.
151
Yes. The only "upside" is less financing of eastern & southern European infrastructure and cultural (tourism) investment. But do we really want to leave them on their own to turn into who knows what, then have to deal with that? Putin will take them back for a Soviet revival. Even out of Europe the UK would fund some.
5
The funny thing is that the UK may lose the Schengen opt out in part of a trade deal. The EU will insist in free movemen of workers. It's just whether its like what it is at the moment, or through Schengen
Despite all the reasonable and persuasive arguments about why Britain should remain in the EU, I wonder how many everyday people look to their neighbors to the North - Norway - and conclude that they are doing very well without being in the EU. Norway has many of the benefits of being in the EU (via the EEA) without a lot of the responsibilities - thereby keeping their currency, minimizing their financial contributions and having more control over their borders. Arguably Norway benefits from not being in the EU. I can see how many British people might feel the same.
288
Norway has (and has had, see sovereign fund) enormous oil wealth for a small population. And Scotland could break away and take their oil and gas...
9
I think you should use Dubai as an example. The only vibrant aspect of the UK economy is hosting the largest money laundry machine in the world (the city of London). The aspiration is to be outside and keep a completely deregulated (parasite) market. Norway - the same as Island (that has already applied to join) - would be begging to join the day after the oil wells slow down.
2
Except that those northern neighbours have to agree to fairly unrestricted movement of EU member nation inhabitants. So, one of the major arguments for leaving -- stopping or decreasing immigration and free movement -- will not come to pass.
4
If the Bernie crowd is the answer to saving America from the financiers and Wall Street shenanigans, it doesn't show up in the whining tone of his supporters' comments on this blog. It's going to take a lot more than complaining to resolve both our economic woes and those of the U.K. and the European Union.
5
At least the "Bernie Crowd" knows where to point the finger of blame for the
failure of democracy ... at the corporate and 1% control of the global economy,
failure of democracy ... at the corporate and 1% control of the global economy,
10
In Anglo-Saxon civics, the primary function of politics is to impact economics. That comes down to the question supply side bias or demand side bias?
Does anyone with any sense (other than a billionaire) look around and REALLY think what we need is more supply side bias policies?
Unfortunately the billionaires control most of the politicians. Only Bernie was openly advocating for demand side bias policies.
Europe has basically the same problem we have, concentrated wealth and policy elites unresponsive to reality of the masses. So yes, the Bernie crowd is the answer to what ails America, and something similar to it is the answer to what plagues Europe.
Does anyone with any sense (other than a billionaire) look around and REALLY think what we need is more supply side bias policies?
Unfortunately the billionaires control most of the politicians. Only Bernie was openly advocating for demand side bias policies.
Europe has basically the same problem we have, concentrated wealth and policy elites unresponsive to reality of the masses. So yes, the Bernie crowd is the answer to what ails America, and something similar to it is the answer to what plagues Europe.
2
I agree with Krugman on most of his essay. The effect of British exit from the European Union would on the whole be negative, in spite of the flawed nature of the European Union.
But what is remarkable is that Europe struggles so much in spite of progressive policies that the US should emulate. For example, most of the Western European countries have a close approximation to universal health coverage, something the US apparently cannot "afford." Obamacare is a poor substitute.
And that has a devastating impact on American lives. 27,000 Americans per year die of prostate cancer, 40,000 of breast cancer. Those numbers are partially due to a deadly disease but would be significantly lower if ALL Americans had access to timely cancer screenings.
But economists face a conundrum that they refuse to discuss because of political correctness. Why is Europe stagnating in spite of the higher taxes and better safety net than the US?
Krugman seems to suggest more monetary easing, but this has not succeeded so far, either in the US or Europe.
The problem is that macroeconomics is exceedingly complicated, and theory falls short precisely because economics concerns human behavior, which is more complicated than the usual sciences.
There are many variables, one is population growth. During the period 1870-2000 improvements in technology overwhelmed population growth in the developed world. Now failure to EVEN DISCUSS the implications of population growth is coming back to bite.
But what is remarkable is that Europe struggles so much in spite of progressive policies that the US should emulate. For example, most of the Western European countries have a close approximation to universal health coverage, something the US apparently cannot "afford." Obamacare is a poor substitute.
And that has a devastating impact on American lives. 27,000 Americans per year die of prostate cancer, 40,000 of breast cancer. Those numbers are partially due to a deadly disease but would be significantly lower if ALL Americans had access to timely cancer screenings.
But economists face a conundrum that they refuse to discuss because of political correctness. Why is Europe stagnating in spite of the higher taxes and better safety net than the US?
Krugman seems to suggest more monetary easing, but this has not succeeded so far, either in the US or Europe.
The problem is that macroeconomics is exceedingly complicated, and theory falls short precisely because economics concerns human behavior, which is more complicated than the usual sciences.
There are many variables, one is population growth. During the period 1870-2000 improvements in technology overwhelmed population growth in the developed world. Now failure to EVEN DISCUSS the implications of population growth is coming back to bite.
10
Well, you sort of answered your own question. High taxes and lavish social benefits lead to a welfare society. In Great Britain, fully one family in FIVE leaves on the dole -- and 20% of those families have not had an adult who was employed in two generations. That is a very heaven burden for the other 80% to carry.
We are headed that way ourselves. And Europeans pay most of their budgets ON that universal health care. I'm not anti health care, but to provide it for absolutely everyone -- the rich, the poor, the middle class, foreigners, illegal immigrants, etc. -- is very costly. And those European nations are not providing their own self defense -- we ARE, out of our own pockets.
If we didn't have to do that -- if some kindly, benevolent nation would be nice enough to provide us with defense, battleships, missiles, soldiers FOR FREE -- we could spend nearly 100% of OUR US budget on health care too.
BTW: your stats on cancer suggest a greater percentage of Americans die of these things than Europeans. That is not true.
We are headed that way ourselves. And Europeans pay most of their budgets ON that universal health care. I'm not anti health care, but to provide it for absolutely everyone -- the rich, the poor, the middle class, foreigners, illegal immigrants, etc. -- is very costly. And those European nations are not providing their own self defense -- we ARE, out of our own pockets.
If we didn't have to do that -- if some kindly, benevolent nation would be nice enough to provide us with defense, battleships, missiles, soldiers FOR FREE -- we could spend nearly 100% of OUR US budget on health care too.
BTW: your stats on cancer suggest a greater percentage of Americans die of these things than Europeans. That is not true.
3
1, Population growth has been shrinking rapidly in the EU and slowing down even world wide. See the charts at http://www.carboncommentary.com/blog/2013/07/18/stephen-emmotts-central-...
2. The basic ideas in economics is not so complicated. In this case the problem is austerity. Look at the US. (The same ideas are true for the EU).
We have practised austerity 6 times, eliminating deficits, paying down the debt for more than 3 years. Each such period ended in a depression.
Just ask the question where does money flow from and to?
There are two places. First, the federal government. When it spend, it adds money to the private sector. When it taxes, it takes money out. The deficit measures how much it puts in net. When we have a surplus, we take money out net. THE FEDERAL DEFICIT IS INCOME FOR PEOPLE, BUSINESSES, AND STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENTS.
The other place is our trade balance. When it is positive, money is put in the private sector; when it is negative, money is taken out.
The net effect of these two sectors must be positive. If we have a large trade surplus, we only need a small deficit or can even support a surplus like Australia did for a while. From 1997 to 2008 a too small deficit combined with a large trade deficit to suck money out of the private sector.
If money continues to flow out of the private sector, people borrow from banks. Private debt explodes. This inevitably cannot be sustained. The economy crashes.
2. The basic ideas in economics is not so complicated. In this case the problem is austerity. Look at the US. (The same ideas are true for the EU).
We have practised austerity 6 times, eliminating deficits, paying down the debt for more than 3 years. Each such period ended in a depression.
Just ask the question where does money flow from and to?
There are two places. First, the federal government. When it spend, it adds money to the private sector. When it taxes, it takes money out. The deficit measures how much it puts in net. When we have a surplus, we take money out net. THE FEDERAL DEFICIT IS INCOME FOR PEOPLE, BUSINESSES, AND STATE & LOCAL GOVERNMENTS.
The other place is our trade balance. When it is positive, money is put in the private sector; when it is negative, money is taken out.
The net effect of these two sectors must be positive. If we have a large trade surplus, we only need a small deficit or can even support a surplus like Australia did for a while. From 1997 to 2008 a too small deficit combined with a large trade deficit to suck money out of the private sector.
If money continues to flow out of the private sector, people borrow from banks. Private debt explodes. This inevitably cannot be sustained. The economy crashes.
14
"Why is Europe stagnating in spite of the higher taxes and better safety net than the US?"
Because these progressive policies, under the terms of globalized financial capitalism, are still almost exclusively based on 28 national frameworks instead of one overarching system. Thats why.
Nobody disputes the importance of "critical mass", when it comes to the efficiency of big, private corporations to pursue their goals (however doubtful those may be), but many suddenly turn "nativist" and fervently "decentralized" when it comes to political entities (regardless of their stated goals and whether those are defined in terms of narrow nationalism or enlightened compromise).
Some logic.
Because these progressive policies, under the terms of globalized financial capitalism, are still almost exclusively based on 28 national frameworks instead of one overarching system. Thats why.
Nobody disputes the importance of "critical mass", when it comes to the efficiency of big, private corporations to pursue their goals (however doubtful those may be), but many suddenly turn "nativist" and fervently "decentralized" when it comes to political entities (regardless of their stated goals and whether those are defined in terms of narrow nationalism or enlightened compromise).
Some logic.
5
Most Brits do not want to become a multicultural society - it's not their history. The working class in particular had it with foreigners streaming into their country and taking their jobs .
The City that thrives on finance and stashing away the loot of Russian oligarch and loves multiculturalism will take a hit - alas most Brits think it had it coming and are not the least little be sorry about it .
'Cause it will reduce inequality the UK.
The City that thrives on finance and stashing away the loot of Russian oligarch and loves multiculturalism will take a hit - alas most Brits think it had it coming and are not the least little be sorry about it .
'Cause it will reduce inequality the UK.
181
Feel similar as to New York City and for same reasons.
3
It's 'not British history' to be multicultural?Then why did the British go all over the world conquering other countries? I remember a poster from the 80s: WE are here, because YOU were there.
1
Do you have any proof? What are your qualifications to make these assertions?
2
Would exiting the E.U, end the right to freely travel in the Rest of Europe without a passport or visa?
How about NATO, where would that leave it? Also, Britain has high labor costs which would leave it competing with lower cost countries. When it comes to quality goods like appliances, German leads, clothing look to Italy. England has the economic and banking expertise, but if the financial firms find the competition to high, the will leave. England is not longer the industrial power it once was, it has nothing to gain by leaving the E.U. except that independence they had for so long. Today the sun does set on the flag of England. It was not too long ago that the definition of Hell was where the English cooks were. Today that European diversity has brought it a bit of cuisine culture.
The natives may love the island, but when it comes to vacations they head to warmer climes like Spain, Italy, and France. Just hop on the HSR and zip over to the continent for a little time in Barcelona. Instead of fighting the EU. they should work to make it better. The days of the Hundred Years War and colonies around the world are gone, so join the 21st century.
The world is flat.
How about NATO, where would that leave it? Also, Britain has high labor costs which would leave it competing with lower cost countries. When it comes to quality goods like appliances, German leads, clothing look to Italy. England has the economic and banking expertise, but if the financial firms find the competition to high, the will leave. England is not longer the industrial power it once was, it has nothing to gain by leaving the E.U. except that independence they had for so long. Today the sun does set on the flag of England. It was not too long ago that the definition of Hell was where the English cooks were. Today that European diversity has brought it a bit of cuisine culture.
The natives may love the island, but when it comes to vacations they head to warmer climes like Spain, Italy, and France. Just hop on the HSR and zip over to the continent for a little time in Barcelona. Instead of fighting the EU. they should work to make it better. The days of the Hundred Years War and colonies around the world are gone, so join the 21st century.
The world is flat.
80
Why would the Brexit mean the British could not vacation in Spain, Italy or France? Didn't they used to vacation there before the EU? Aren't there such things as passports? Heck, you need a passport today to simply go to CANADA from the US!
2
It's not a question of passport, but of the hassle of getting a visa. The last time I check, US citizens do not need a visa to go to Canada.
2
I vacationed in Spain. I did not need a visa, just my passport. I'm not sure why this would be available to an American but not a Brit. I guarantee you that Spain will welcome them there with open arms. Anyway, they did me, and I was grateful for the experience. Its a great place. There are towns in Spain that already have so many Brits living there that they make up a big % of the town.
Brexit is their Tweedledum
And Trump is our Tweedledee,
The prospects for Briitain are glum,
Ours better choosing Hillary.
I'd rather have chosen Bernie
Krugman thinks the Brits ought to stay,
Either way Britain won't be happy,
But Hill' over Trump? Any day!
And Trump is our Tweedledee,
The prospects for Briitain are glum,
Ours better choosing Hillary.
I'd rather have chosen Bernie
Krugman thinks the Brits ought to stay,
Either way Britain won't be happy,
But Hill' over Trump? Any day!
295
Speaking of Alice in Wonderland.....When is Trumpty Dumpty going to have his great fall off his wall already, so no one can put him back together again?
12
Meredith;
On Election Day.
On Election Day.
8
Except we hate Hillary and don't trust her, and she's dishonest.
3
"There would be no joy in that vote."
There are some common threads to Brexit and our own path here in America; a feeling that maybe the only way to fix the village is to burn it down. History repeats itself as nations continue to display the same inability break out of vicious cycles. For as long as the left movements in both are unable to fully regain control, the outlook will remain limited, hope low, and joy nonexistent.
---
www.rimaregas.com
There are some common threads to Brexit and our own path here in America; a feeling that maybe the only way to fix the village is to burn it down. History repeats itself as nations continue to display the same inability break out of vicious cycles. For as long as the left movements in both are unable to fully regain control, the outlook will remain limited, hope low, and joy nonexistent.
---
www.rimaregas.com
87
History is so full of "fixing the village by burning it down." Why does no one read or pay attention to these lessons? Did not the French revolution turn into a blood bath, the Russian overthrew of the Mensheviks by Lenin and the horrors that brought, the Chinese....,. How many millions have to die before we understand that burning and revolution are not the answer, Whether there is or is not an answer is a difficult question and there may well be no answer. Maybe we flawed mortals just have to do the best we can. But violence is surely not the correct answer.
19
DWolfenm,
There need not be violence. Merely abstaining from voting here, or voting for Brexit will break cycles and force a reset.
There need not be violence. Merely abstaining from voting here, or voting for Brexit will break cycles and force a reset.
4
Not voting isn't a solution; it's the problem. Yeesh...
10
Why is leaving irreversible? It looks to me like Paul's ultimate conclusion is that it is a toss up.