If the UK's biggest objection to EU membership is the loss of control over its borders, that seems to be a point that could have been negotiated as an laternative to a complete break with Europe.
1
I am no economists, but I am wondering if it is time to accept the fact that the 36-year reign of Neo-liberalism and financial engineering controlling everything (with the bankster's coming out on top) should be thrown on the dung-pile of history? Please correct me if I am wrong - but it seems to me here in the Champlain Valley, that it is not working, and the more the data proves it is not working, the more entrenched it becomes.
1
It's immigration stupid. England (and all of Great Britain) does not want to be forced into accepting thousands of immigrants. This whole problem of immigration would have been settled if a coalition of Western Nations had stepped into the Syrian problem long ago.
This is the Afghanistan of the 1980s after the Russians left and nobody came in to stop the Taliban. It is also like the Afghanistan of the early 2000s after the US attack (in retaliation for 9/11) when our "great leader" George W. Bush decided to let Afghans fix whatever problems remained by themselves (Even the leader (at that time) of Afghanistan begged not to be forgotten by the US as Dick Cheney took this country into Iraq.)
But we ignored them and look what we have now in Afghanistan.
Restore the stability in Syria. It's probably too late to stop Brexit but maybe Britain will be the only country to leave the EU.
This is the Afghanistan of the 1980s after the Russians left and nobody came in to stop the Taliban. It is also like the Afghanistan of the early 2000s after the US attack (in retaliation for 9/11) when our "great leader" George W. Bush decided to let Afghans fix whatever problems remained by themselves (Even the leader (at that time) of Afghanistan begged not to be forgotten by the US as Dick Cheney took this country into Iraq.)
But we ignored them and look what we have now in Afghanistan.
Restore the stability in Syria. It's probably too late to stop Brexit but maybe Britain will be the only country to leave the EU.
1
One more sign that "economica" is but a pseudo-science. Beyond hand waving, modern economics fails to provide any sort of reliable framework for analysis. When all you can do is guess, the guesses come in all over the spectrum. Remember, Bernanke and his Fed followers continued to assure us that the sub-prime mortgage crisis would be contained to the sub-prim market. Talk about guessing.
4
Fafield--
Beautiful comment. Economics exposes some truths and offers bases for a few very short-term predictions. But most of it is just guesswork. Rather like the Emperor wearing no clothes. But who dares say so?
Beautiful comment. Economics exposes some truths and offers bases for a few very short-term predictions. But most of it is just guesswork. Rather like the Emperor wearing no clothes. But who dares say so?
1
Shouldn't they define the deal and then vote, for or against that arrangement? Turning it around backwards ends up having UKers vote how they "feel" about the EU. Since they don't feel good about it, this approach favors an exit vote with an undefined way of exiting or of running their country afterwards. Mr. Cameron is yelling 'Fire!' in a crowded theater and then starting the fire.
3
A very foolish idea for Britain. As someone said here "Little England is about to get a whole lot smaller".
And if anyone is trying to decide on which way they should vote - take a look at the picture at the top of this article. What does the caption say & who is pictured in it?
"Britain’s chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, center, with Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase".
Someone somewhere is planning on making a whole lot of money on this bad idea.
It is usually why all bad ideas are put forth. And who, in the end will suffer the most? Once again - Some folks just never, NEVER have enough.
And if anyone is trying to decide on which way they should vote - take a look at the picture at the top of this article. What does the caption say & who is pictured in it?
"Britain’s chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, center, with Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase".
Someone somewhere is planning on making a whole lot of money on this bad idea.
It is usually why all bad ideas are put forth. And who, in the end will suffer the most? Once again - Some folks just never, NEVER have enough.
6
The fear impelling Brexit is Muslim immigration. Not clear Turkey can keep a lid on Syrian et al migrants forever (esp. now that Turkey is making demands that violate European cultural norms ... such as curbing free speech in Germany, else Turkey won't keep up it's end of bargain). Also, the hundreds of thousands of mid-east & N. African migrants today may be superseded by tens of millions tomorrow, as mid-East & N. Africa sink into more chaos, violence, hunger, thirst (water supplies rapidly now dwindling). unlivable heat and poverty. Potential immigration of that scale, and of a Muslim culture (theocracy, misogyny, no free press) opposed to fundamental Western values is a threat that trumps (no pun intended) all others.
4
Should the UK leave the EU it will be expensive for both, more so for the UK which will have to renegotiate its access to the common market.
Still, if the British want this outcome it has to be accepted.
On the other hand, there is a good chance that the Brexit will lead to a number of reconsiderations in Brussels on what is wrong with the EU as it is.
So there is also a chance that the EU will try to get back to its roots and come closer to its citizens.
Something that it won't do if the British stay in the club.
Still, if the British want this outcome it has to be accepted.
On the other hand, there is a good chance that the Brexit will lead to a number of reconsiderations in Brussels on what is wrong with the EU as it is.
So there is also a chance that the EU will try to get back to its roots and come closer to its citizens.
Something that it won't do if the British stay in the club.
2
A UK decision to exit the EC will impact global economies as much or more than the domestic UK economy. It could be the tipping point for a global depression, given our current low-growth situation.
As commenter Hislop observed, isolationism is not possible in a world with the communications and transportation systems now in place. All building walls will do is slow the flow of investment capital...and result in bigger ladders.
Governments may one day realize that while national borders are fixed, investment capital and jobs are not.
As commenter Hislop observed, isolationism is not possible in a world with the communications and transportation systems now in place. All building walls will do is slow the flow of investment capital...and result in bigger ladders.
Governments may one day realize that while national borders are fixed, investment capital and jobs are not.
1
As the article makes clear, there was a perception that the Brits would vote to remain in Europe and, I suspect, that this was the reason for the European leaders not to bend very much at all in their negotiations with David Cameron.
The main issues, from where I'm sat seem to be:
Immigration - main issue of those who want OUT - Whilst many Europeans have come to the country and contributed positively to the currently stable economic conditions, there are quite a number, especially from the East, who haven't...and these people are very obvious both by their appearance and their voices.
Economy - main issue of those who want IN - huge uncertainty as to what the consequences of a Brexit will be but, in the short term at least, there will be little that is positive.
European Union Government - possibly the swing point for those that are undecided - a body that appears to be unaccountable and for which the UK didn't sign up. A body that is quietly resented within the UK and, probably to a certain extent within Europe.
History - because there are a few errors of understanding in some of the posts -
the UK wanted to join the EEC when it was first formed but President De Gaulle blocked the application. The UK was going to join the Euro currency but thanks to the currency play by a certain George Soros, no longer met the entry requirements (other nations, including France, later failed to meet the requirements but that didn't matter).
The main issues, from where I'm sat seem to be:
Immigration - main issue of those who want OUT - Whilst many Europeans have come to the country and contributed positively to the currently stable economic conditions, there are quite a number, especially from the East, who haven't...and these people are very obvious both by their appearance and their voices.
Economy - main issue of those who want IN - huge uncertainty as to what the consequences of a Brexit will be but, in the short term at least, there will be little that is positive.
European Union Government - possibly the swing point for those that are undecided - a body that appears to be unaccountable and for which the UK didn't sign up. A body that is quietly resented within the UK and, probably to a certain extent within Europe.
History - because there are a few errors of understanding in some of the posts -
the UK wanted to join the EEC when it was first formed but President De Gaulle blocked the application. The UK was going to join the Euro currency but thanks to the currency play by a certain George Soros, no longer met the entry requirements (other nations, including France, later failed to meet the requirements but that didn't matter).
2
The panic part of Brexit is misplaced. Reminds me of Y2K and the nothing that actually happened after all the dire warnings. Brussels and its unelected officials are the main reason this has come to pass. The UK will survive quite well once the smoke clears. It is only the scare tactics of the establishment that has amped this up. The financial center will be fine once the smoke clears. Does anyone really think that wealthy people and institutions will pull their money and park it in Paris or Rome or anywhere else? Not going to happen. Britain has had their own currency all along and that continues either way. This is all the last ditch effort to convince people to remain in the EU. However the citizens of Britain vote, this too will pass.
2
Another point:
The assumption is that the EU is a sturdy-built association vs. one hastily-thrown together to integrate vastly differing countries with different languages, customs, histories. The early Common Market of Benelux countries, France, Germany, and Italy was not seamless. But the EU grew a lot faster than seemed wise, but all worked out when it began during a boom period. The UK is very opposed to an unelected parliament ruling in detail on how they are to do. Other EU countries are hardly any more enthusiastic. The nordic countries are outside the Euro market.
Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain are economic laggards. Hungary, Rumania, and Bulgaria are no democracies. The whole structure is wobbly.
If the UK leaves, EU wobbliness will become more evident, but the UK did not cause that wobbliness.
The assumption is that the EU is a sturdy-built association vs. one hastily-thrown together to integrate vastly differing countries with different languages, customs, histories. The early Common Market of Benelux countries, France, Germany, and Italy was not seamless. But the EU grew a lot faster than seemed wise, but all worked out when it began during a boom period. The UK is very opposed to an unelected parliament ruling in detail on how they are to do. Other EU countries are hardly any more enthusiastic. The nordic countries are outside the Euro market.
Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain are economic laggards. Hungary, Rumania, and Bulgaria are no democracies. The whole structure is wobbly.
If the UK leaves, EU wobbliness will become more evident, but the UK did not cause that wobbliness.
Britain does not feel European, because of her past and current arrogance, and has not acted like a European country. Hello, the sun now rises and sets on the British Empire. Stop constantly whining and behaving like a little brat. Go ahead and exit, please! It will be better for the rest of Europe and everyone else.
"All the world's a stage".
William Shakespeare
Countries, economies and companies grow inexorably over time. Human relations, politics and CURRENCY are shifting sands UNDER the edifice of countries, economies and companies.
Lives, empires and fortunes are won and lost on shifting sands.
"And so it goes".
Kurt Vonnegut
William Shakespeare
Countries, economies and companies grow inexorably over time. Human relations, politics and CURRENCY are shifting sands UNDER the edifice of countries, economies and companies.
Lives, empires and fortunes are won and lost on shifting sands.
"And so it goes".
Kurt Vonnegut
1
Mr Dimon's appearance with Mr Osborne to give him an appearance of authenticity means: "Brexit at once."
Thanks.
Thanks.
Surprises can and will come up after a Brexit, if it will occur. On the whole, however, the idea of European unity within the EU framework is a badly structured amalgam. This is no union of equals. The friction between the haves and the have nots, the evolved people and the less polished ones, the law-abiding and the law-contriving, this was and remains an exercise in forcible love rather than true affection. Even after a Brexit England will not move one inch further from Calais, its people will be no less difficult to deal with and the Continent will need to do business with it as much as ever. England, however, will reverse to being much more than a province of the European Union. It will remain England, not a bad deal.
In times of fear and downturn, the response of the people who are struggling is to pull up the draw-bridge and keep out the stranger. Today such fears are expressed by things like Brexit and calls to get out of everything from NAFTA to the UN and NATO. Sadly, those old isolationist methods do not work so well in our globally connected world. Most corporations are multi-national; people move easily and quickly around the globe; if the Asian markets sneeze, Western markets will get a cold; communication is instantaneous. Isolationism (close the doors, keep 'those' people out, we will go it alone) is more destructive than constructive.
2
It's due to its European Union ties that Britain enjoys a privileged position of the world's financial hub and also derives an extraordinary trade advantage in the global market. Once it quits the EU it would be a loser on both the fronts. Even if it devises the Norway-like plan of having access to the European market without being a member of the EU, it would be required to follow the EU rules and norms of the trade and investment, which would mean a certain dilution of its sovereignty quest- the primary impulse behind the "Brexit" drive.
3
It is interesting that the arguments for staying in the Union are almost made exclusively from an economic point of view-what will be lost, and so on- no one pretends to think that Brussels is going to stop issuing diktats. On the contrary, the arguments for leaving are much more emotional and reflect long held frustration at a system that has not worked well. Scare tactics will not influence this sort of deep-seated response. More power to them.
11
That's the same as telling yourself you should get a divorce, becuase your wife tells you what to do sometimes.
1
Little England is about to get a whole lot smaller with a Brexit. It would be ironic to see another repeat of Black Wednesday, only this time we get to see Cameron and Osbourne sweating bullets as they try to explain this one to the great British public. Let's hope the financial overlords go easy on them.
5
Globalization has done nothing for ordinary workers other than to force their wages down and make their lives more insecure. If Greece is a good example of what the EU can do to members, Britain is well advised to get out as fast as possible. And whatever Jamie Dimon supports is going to be a bonanza for him, a disaster for the 99%. If I were British, it vote for Brexit. And if I could vote on the issue, I'd vote to get the US out of NAFTA and strangle the TPP in utero.
17
Actually, Greece is a very POOR example to cite.
Britain still has control over it's currency, Greece does not.
And the loss of currency control is the major reason Greece, Italy, Spain, etc. are faltering under the EU umbrella.
Britain still has control over it's currency, Greece does not.
And the loss of currency control is the major reason Greece, Italy, Spain, etc. are faltering under the EU umbrella.
When the UK joined the EU and blew off their long standing relationship with Australia and New Zealand, panic ensued down under. But not for long, as Australia started to build lucrative relationships elsewhere, particularly with Asian countries. Same will happen with the UK.
And, I for one, would love to see UK airport arrival lounges where Australians and New Zealanders can line up with the Brits to have their documents reviewed, a privilege now available to those from EU countries but not Australia.
Time for Britain to reconsider who its friends are.
And, I for one, would love to see UK airport arrival lounges where Australians and New Zealanders can line up with the Brits to have their documents reviewed, a privilege now available to those from EU countries but not Australia.
Time for Britain to reconsider who its friends are.
9
If Brexit can hit the financial markets, then the financial markets are not on solid ground. In that case, they better get hit sooner than later.
5
Wall Street and the hedge funds already have their bets placed. Despite the fact that there will be a multi-year transition and that the UK will do just fine post-EU, there will be 4 days of market "turmoil" that will handily lift money from you and transfer it to the elites who understand how the "market" operates in these situations. You might recall many more serious events such as the cratering of the US economy and housing market by Wall Street in 2008 and all is quite well again; nobody even went to jail.................Marc Rich, nicely pardoned by Clinton #1, is probably still a billionaire and still living in Switzerland.
8
Cratering of real estate in the US and the subsequent financial crisis will be a happy ending for the UK, in the scale of the possible.
2
The only winner from a Brexit is Putin, plain and simple.
5
quick, lets go back to borders, guards, three and four hour waits, changing trains and of course changing money at each local stop.... and each time the money goes down a little.
6
A "leave" vote in Brexit sounds like a "Trump" vote in 2016. Establishment figures across the political spectrum dread it, but the common folks clamor for it. The long-term, deep-rooted cause is that the common folks feel the establishment is out of touch and is just trying to rig the system for the establishment's gain.
A happy ending would be we all walk back from the brink. The common folks give the establishment one more chance and the establishment delivers. I hope we get there on both sides of the pond.
A happy ending would be we all walk back from the brink. The common folks give the establishment one more chance and the establishment delivers. I hope we get there on both sides of the pond.
10
Trump started with his father's seed money of about $10 million, equivalent in today's money to around $100 million. I should have been so lucky. In spite of his denials, there is a long trail of bankruptcies behind him and the pending issue of the (in all probability, fraudulent) Trump University. He owns very few things, he just licenses his name. He is a carnival barker and a snake oil salesman. His biggest problem is that he thinks he is all-knowing and is not willing to listen to people who know what they are talking about. This particular Emperor has no clothes
10
What does this have to do with Brexit?
10
He was referencing the previous comment in a kind of Nebulous way
Of course, it is every nation's decision to determine how they will exercise their sovereignty, but one has to wonder at the benefits to be derived from a Brexit.
1. Immigration is largely a red herring as Britain already has huge populations of people from their prior foreign possessions and it seems to be doing better than the rest of Europe on this issue.
2. Half of their trade is with the continent, which is likely to be somewhat ambivalent about their actions. At best they will get a weak deal.
3. Defense will be hurt as NATO will include the big Europe and smaller Britain.
4. The precedent may embolden the Scots and Irish to ask for an exit.
5. Finance jobs that are among the highest paying will leave for richer European meadows.
The British are not without regulation, so I fail to see the big benefits.
1. Immigration is largely a red herring as Britain already has huge populations of people from their prior foreign possessions and it seems to be doing better than the rest of Europe on this issue.
2. Half of their trade is with the continent, which is likely to be somewhat ambivalent about their actions. At best they will get a weak deal.
3. Defense will be hurt as NATO will include the big Europe and smaller Britain.
4. The precedent may embolden the Scots and Irish to ask for an exit.
5. Finance jobs that are among the highest paying will leave for richer European meadows.
The British are not without regulation, so I fail to see the big benefits.
10
Immigration: The concern in Britain isn't immigration from its former colonies . . . it's immigration from other EU countries and the policy for inter-EU immigration is decided not in London, but in Brussels. The Leave side wants to take back those powers for the UK government.
Trade: It's possible, of course, that Brussels will force a lose-lose deal on the UK, but I think common sense will prevail and that the EU will negotiate a mutually-beneficial agreement with what would become its largest trading partner. Britain has huge strengths and if the EU negotiates in good faith, London should be able to get much more than a "weak deal".
NATO: The EU is not a NATO treaty partner and I've never read anything that makes me think that Brexit would have any impact on NATO operations.
Scotland: Scotland may very well decide on independence one day, no matter how the Brexit vote goes. My own reading is that the SNP government (which no longer has a majority in Edinburgh) would be reluctant to call a second referendum because they could very will lose it, something that could kill the independence debate for a generation if not forever.
Finance jobs: A good argument for Remain, yes, but the British financial industry has been downsized (by design) since the 2008 financial crisis and my sense is that the dangers have been exaggerated. The strength of the UK industry is its pool of smart, experienced people . . . how many will be interested in shifting to Frankfurt or Dublin?
Trade: It's possible, of course, that Brussels will force a lose-lose deal on the UK, but I think common sense will prevail and that the EU will negotiate a mutually-beneficial agreement with what would become its largest trading partner. Britain has huge strengths and if the EU negotiates in good faith, London should be able to get much more than a "weak deal".
NATO: The EU is not a NATO treaty partner and I've never read anything that makes me think that Brexit would have any impact on NATO operations.
Scotland: Scotland may very well decide on independence one day, no matter how the Brexit vote goes. My own reading is that the SNP government (which no longer has a majority in Edinburgh) would be reluctant to call a second referendum because they could very will lose it, something that could kill the independence debate for a generation if not forever.
Finance jobs: A good argument for Remain, yes, but the British financial industry has been downsized (by design) since the 2008 financial crisis and my sense is that the dangers have been exaggerated. The strength of the UK industry is its pool of smart, experienced people . . . how many will be interested in shifting to Frankfurt or Dublin?
5
Some very good points. But I think you're off on trade. You treat it as purely an economic problem to be solved - one in which there might be a win-win solution. But it's a political problem: the EU cannot afford to encourage other exits, so it cannot give the UK a good deal. Even if that were to make sense economically, it would undermine the EU in the long run. Brussels is painfully aware of that. I don't think they're bluffing on this.
Anyone who thinks that the EU won't make an example of the UK (in terms of trade and other agreements) in order to discourage others from taking the same path, is kidding themselves.
A sad return to beans and chips?
One consequence of Britain becoming part of the EU was a notable improvement in the food. Au revoir mon camenbert.
One consequence of Britain becoming part of the EU was a notable improvement in the food. Au revoir mon camenbert.
8
Camembert will still be available in Manchester and Birmingham; just as it is in San Mateo, Melbourne and Cape Town. The demand will remain and the French producers still have to sell.
7
There is near panic in Ireland at the prospect of Brexit, with The Irish Angle given scant regard by either the Leave or Remain side alike, yet obsessive scrutiny by economists and politicians in the Republic and across the Border by our Northern brothers alike.
Why so?
In its most basic form, Brexit represents a powerful threat to the Irish economy on both sides of the Border, given that Ireland's largest trade partner by a large degree is Britain, with their mutual EU membership facilitating straightforward cross-Border (and cross-Irish Sea) trade.
Brexit, however, means an end to that fiscal trading, as new arrangements would have to be negotiated. Britain outside the EU represents an entirely new threat to trade agreements, and presents difficulties - difficulties which would directly impact the Northern Irish, and Republic of Ireland, economies alike - cue great gloom and rare unity among Irish economists and politicians.
Given that the vast majority of British citizens have close to zero interest in, or love for, Northern Ireland, there is next to no discussion of this economic elephant in the room, even though it would directly, negatively impact the 'mainland' economy.
Another Irish consequence would be The Border - Northern Ireland would be dragged off into a new political entity with the rest of Britain. As such, the Border would need physical posts restored, and Border checks - further division on the island of Ireland.
But, again, Brexiters don't care...
Why so?
In its most basic form, Brexit represents a powerful threat to the Irish economy on both sides of the Border, given that Ireland's largest trade partner by a large degree is Britain, with their mutual EU membership facilitating straightforward cross-Border (and cross-Irish Sea) trade.
Brexit, however, means an end to that fiscal trading, as new arrangements would have to be negotiated. Britain outside the EU represents an entirely new threat to trade agreements, and presents difficulties - difficulties which would directly impact the Northern Irish, and Republic of Ireland, economies alike - cue great gloom and rare unity among Irish economists and politicians.
Given that the vast majority of British citizens have close to zero interest in, or love for, Northern Ireland, there is next to no discussion of this economic elephant in the room, even though it would directly, negatively impact the 'mainland' economy.
Another Irish consequence would be The Border - Northern Ireland would be dragged off into a new political entity with the rest of Britain. As such, the Border would need physical posts restored, and Border checks - further division on the island of Ireland.
But, again, Brexiters don't care...
8
Oh dear - the Brits and the Irish will have to sit down, work some things out and reach some agreements.
Shouldn't be too difficult, given how both peoples are forever reminding us how intelligent they are.
Shouldn't be too difficult, given how both peoples are forever reminding us how intelligent they are.
6
I don't think we need to 'remind' you.
After all, when half of America is plumping for a racist idiot like Donald Trump to be the next president, we foreigners and outsiders automatically win on the intelligence front. Nothing we've done can match such truly epic stupidity.
After all, when half of America is plumping for a racist idiot like Donald Trump to be the next president, we foreigners and outsiders automatically win on the intelligence front. Nothing we've done can match such truly epic stupidity.
1
In the US we have a long tradition for a good part of the electorate to vote AGAINST its best interests (and increasingly so).
If Brexit occurs it will another manifestation of this phenomenon.
If Brexit occurs it will another manifestation of this phenomenon.
It sounds like the eu is run by the banks. If the eu is dictating all of the important rules to sovereign governments then these nations and their people are beholden to the international banks. People are being born into corporate rule.
No wonder JPMorgan is against changing it.
The banks are in charge. That should not be accepted anywhere. Go England.
No wonder JPMorgan is against changing it.
The banks are in charge. That should not be accepted anywhere. Go England.
18
Do you really think Brexit will loosen The City's grip on the UK? They ruled the country before the EU, and they'll rule it after. The bankers will just be ruling a poorer country.
1
Without Brexit there will be continued pressure on the UK to further integrate with the rest of the EU. The UK government has been far from perfect, but the EU has shown itself to be inept at managing basic functions of the union--witness the Greek debt crisis and the current refugee/immigration crisis. Such failures don't inspire confidence. Add to that the fact that people feel even more detached from the EU than they do from parliament (11% of Brits can name their MEP versus 52% for their MP--according to the Guardian, 5/10/14) and you can see why a substantial number of people would rather go it alone.
9
Basic lie... The UK has resisted - and impeded for other members amongst themselves (euro zone) - greater integration. But basically we agree, Brexit will be better for European Union integration.
3
The European Coal and Steel Community made sense as a way of increasing trade and making binding ties. That became the European Common Market, another good move in that direction. The EU was perhaps a bit of an aggrandizement, and the treaties rarely won popular approval, but it had its merits, as well as its costs in terms of floods of immigration. But the Euro was a bridge too far. Jean Monnet predicted the Euro would fail without the creation of fully functional common governmental institutions. His hope was that the Euro would force the creation of a United States of Europe. Instead, it has brought nationalism and balkanization. The Euro needs to disappear, but the EU should remain, and Britain should remain in it.
4
The euro should remain, and with the UK on the outside looking in and not blocking integration, the necessary conditions for euro success will happen.
4
So the UK is the primary impediment to the successful integration of the EU? I don't believe that to be true. In my opinion it is over-reaching plans for integration. The EU has pushed too far with too diverse a group of countries.
5
Yes Geo. If you are not from Vancouver, you would know better.
2
Additional consideration should be given to the extent to which the contemptuous treatment meted out to the Brexit supporters has in fact strengthened the campaign to leave.
Britons who object to the changes brought about by third-world immigration are called racists while those who question the wisdom of allowing greater numbers of Eastern Europeans to compete for a limited number of low-skilled British jobs are branded as bigots. Britons who suggest that tariffs might be used to allow new industries to incubate are deemed economically illiterate and those who suggest that the diminution of national sovereignty is negative are called extremists.
This dialogue brings to mind the epithet an East German poet once hurled at the government of the old German Democratic Republic: What a people that leaders as good as you must suffer with a people like us. Of course the same attitude can be found on this side of the Atlantic, but that is a subject for another day.
Britons who object to the changes brought about by third-world immigration are called racists while those who question the wisdom of allowing greater numbers of Eastern Europeans to compete for a limited number of low-skilled British jobs are branded as bigots. Britons who suggest that tariffs might be used to allow new industries to incubate are deemed economically illiterate and those who suggest that the diminution of national sovereignty is negative are called extremists.
This dialogue brings to mind the epithet an East German poet once hurled at the government of the old German Democratic Republic: What a people that leaders as good as you must suffer with a people like us. Of course the same attitude can be found on this side of the Atlantic, but that is a subject for another day.
10
Don't forget that England was also forced in the 1990's to take in Eastern European financial migrants. Their social services suffered from that as well.
6
@stuck that is another lie. Eastern Europeans work more an contribute more to public finances than the average Brit. Simply because they are young and take jobs Brits won't touch. Rather than claim benefits, they go home.
Facts are facts.
Facts are facts.
6
This is the same argument you hear in the US about Latino immigrants. But if native-born American workers were clamoring for those jobs, they'd have them. Perhaps without immigrant competition for those jobs, wages would be higher and native-born Americans would then want them. But many low-wage industries exist only because wages are so low. Cutting off the labor supply is not going to lead to a flood of $20-an-hour food prep and dishwasher jobs. It'll just lead to more automation.
Spain, Portugal and in particular Greece should have done their own version of Brexit while they had their chance. Now they are at the mercy of financiers and are subject to austerity measures. The very few have benefitted. Austerity measures, the old Mob version of busting knee caps for not paying for loans for that are forced on their victims.
9
England would be better off being independent I think, though some disturbances would occur. The storm even if it's financial will eventually calm down. They will be just fine.
8
The European Union is comparable to the US under the Article of Confederation, and this is why The Constitution was written, and later drafted. I attempted to make this point to European friends back in the early 90s, and was roundly shouted down.
The UK did not join the European Union until 1978 (at least 25 years after its formation) and never joined the Euro Zone, wisely keeping its own currency. I remember things worked pretty well before 1978 and do not see any reason for the same to happen now if the UK does exit the European Union.
5
Actually, in 1976 the UK's economy was dire enough that it needed an IMF loan. Unemployment was high and so were the income taxes, in some cases egregious enough that people like the Rolling Stones moved to the south of France to literally pay much lower income tax.
2
Interesting, Central Bankers, Large ficinical Institutions, big corporations, all warn of dire consequences. Just possible, that is not the issue with everyday Brits. Influence groups do not like to alter their models.
9
If big corporations don't want UK to become independent, UK should become independent. If UK could win WWII and rescue Europe from under Hitler, they will be just fine being independent.
3
The UK did not win WWII! Without the US getting involved, the UK would have remained just as paralyzed in facing Hitler as it was until we got involved! I happen to remember, I was in Europe at the time!
5
The Soviets helped out too. (Just trying to be fair.)
2
The eu is a monster, fair enough. But by leaving, Brittain abandons close allies. The Dutch in particular.
Being from the Netherlands, I feel jilted. Without the UK, Holland is left at the mercy of France and Germany.
Being from the Netherlands, I feel jilted. Without the UK, Holland is left at the mercy of France and Germany.
4
Once the U.K. leaves the EU it will set off a chain reaction. The PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) who have suffered grievously economically, financially, socially and otherwise at the hands of the New World Order White Collar Mafia banksters and crapitalists will soon leave as well. The dominoes and cards will shortly fall and the EU will be cast on the rubbish heap of history along with the euro. It is ironic that Germany tried to dominate Europe by force of arms in two catastrophic world wars and now is dominating it financially with the euro and Brussels bureaucracy firmly under German control. Of course most politicians in all the European countries are puppets of the billionaire brigands who own 90% + of the wealth in the West and want to swallow the other 10% asap. These traitors, liars, and thieves will shortly be replaced by patriots and loyalists in nearly all European nations. The EU is the Fourth Reich. Once the EU goes there is no reason free trade among most European countries can and will continue as well as NATO. But for each nation's internal affairs the native people will be sovereign and democratic and their nations free and independent. The globalists love it, but the EU is a monster that must be slain. Britain's symbol is St. George slaying the dragon. May Britain slay the dragon known as the European Union. it has wreaked havoc and devastation with its evil social, economic and migration policies for far too many years unchecked.
5
I lived in Europe for 15 years including five years in the Netherlands. It was always so many Dutch people I found the most nationalistic, going around claiming their country is the best in the world to live in. If this is true then you can do very well on your own.
Great Britain, and in particular, England, was never part of Europe. While it would be disadvantageous for the UK to leave the EU, the disadvantage is outweighed by the British dislike of the Continent, and the Brussels bureaucracy.
7
This is such a strange argument. Historically (let's say back to the 11th century) England and the Continent were inseparable linguistically, politically, and culturally. Ever hear of Brittany? Or Aquitaine? Check out the ruling families' lineages. Or your own language.
Raw deal? Wait until you're on the outside looking in. Trade friction costs on an annual basis alone will make the UK 's "net contribution" to the EU look like chump change, and I'm not even talking about the costs of disruption, the slide in the pound or euro flight from the city to the continent.
Plenty of eu countries would prefer the UK remain, but it's easy for them as well to see the visceral hate and contempt for Europe as a whole relayed in British press: "what a bunch of chiselling whiners "
Plenty of eu countries would prefer the UK remain, but it's easy for them as well to see the visceral hate and contempt for Europe as a whole relayed in British press: "what a bunch of chiselling whiners "
5
I hope the Brits have the courage to do what they simply think is best, notwithstanding the threats and warnings. Globalization is totally out of control, and any country that can free itself from that yoke will be better off in the medium and long term.
Brits know how to stand up to bullies, and I fully expect that they will do so in this case. Europe has no clothes, Britain. Do not bow to the naked emperor.
Brits know how to stand up to bullies, and I fully expect that they will do so in this case. Europe has no clothes, Britain. Do not bow to the naked emperor.
31
"Brits know how to stand up to bullies" Really?
Is this why Britain’s chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne,is pictured with Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, trying to convince the crowd of their brilliance ?
You can almost see Dimon pulling the invisible strings while he sits there grinning as Osborne's mouth moves.
Is this why Britain’s chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne,is pictured with Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, trying to convince the crowd of their brilliance ?
You can almost see Dimon pulling the invisible strings while he sits there grinning as Osborne's mouth moves.
When Britain left India, chaos was expected and in fact did arrive.
But eventually the world's largest democracy did arise and it has sent missions to both the moon and to Mars.
Good luck to Britain with their declaration of independence!!
But eventually the world's largest democracy did arise and it has sent missions to both the moon and to Mars.
Good luck to Britain with their declaration of independence!!
7
The world's largest democracy is a complete mess I would never want to visit, ever. With a censor-happy government almost as bad as China's, I wonder why people even call it a democracy.
Oops, the India of the Brits was composed of these "future" countries: India itself plus Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar-Burma and the de facto semi-vassal states of Nepal, Bhutan and Sikkim.
I can't open the Times most days w/o learning about yet more horrific news or events from these countries.
The Raj was a vast colony, since when is the UK a colony of the EU?
Entertain your insane delusions, Brexit will turn out to be such a disaster that after the childish blackmail /tantrum, the UK or what will be left of it will timidly and apologetically knock at the door of the EU in order to be reinstated.
A small majority for Brexit at this time? What else? Trump could very well win the next election in the US. Democracies sometimes do stupid things. Hitler was elected democratically too.
I can't open the Times most days w/o learning about yet more horrific news or events from these countries.
The Raj was a vast colony, since when is the UK a colony of the EU?
Entertain your insane delusions, Brexit will turn out to be such a disaster that after the childish blackmail /tantrum, the UK or what will be left of it will timidly and apologetically knock at the door of the EU in order to be reinstated.
A small majority for Brexit at this time? What else? Trump could very well win the next election in the US. Democracies sometimes do stupid things. Hitler was elected democratically too.
I’m curious about this notion that the EU will “punish” Britain for leaving by imposing onerous trade conditions. If true, doesn’t it support the Brexit side’s claim that Brussels is more concerned about protecting its own narrow interests than it is in protecting the general interests of EU citizens? A Britain outside of the EU would be the EU’s largest trading partner and it seems amazing that those who run the EU would seek to damage the UK at the expense of not only the British, but also German auto manufacturers, the Spanish tourism industry, French winemakers, etc. If that is indeed the EU’s plans, I can understand why many Brits want no part of it.
22
PLEASE LEAVE!
You are not worth the trouble, you are a serious candidate for the Israel of Europe...
You are not worth the trouble, you are a serious candidate for the Israel of Europe...
2
Wishful thinking. Within 2 years of Brexit the UK will be out of its preferential trading relationship with the EU, looking in with no influence on policy. This will disrupt and cause pain in the EU as well. The EU will seek favourable terms for itself to mitigate but with all the bargaining power on its side. All the complex trade offs of being a member will be off the table. Under those conditions I don't see how Brussels wouldn't get a better deal for members than now. It makes no sense not to do so.
1
Right on. Believe nothing while the campaigning is on. I think we are witnessing a new social phenomenon caused by the internet revolution; whereby in what is essentially a non-party free vote on a very important constitutional and international issue the electorate have instant, in-depth access to information which by its nature exposes faults in the utterances and actions of the ruling classes as never before. These days trust is very much at a premium - and it's not much in evidence at present.
9
A very close examination of the picture will see the puppet strings attached to the Chancellor of the Exchequer. You can see King Jamie glancing up to the controller above, indicating which gestures his puppet should display, and what "faces" he should make to convey "gravitas."
(The woman at the top of the picture, behind and to our right of the man in the pink shirt, is saying "That government official is operated by puppet strings!"
(The woman at the top of the picture, behind and to our right of the man in the pink shirt, is saying "That government official is operated by puppet strings!"
3
The Chancellor's prospects (as heir apparent, and otherwise) have already been damaged more than I think he realises.
3
Originally globalist policies were sold to citizens as something that would benefit everyone, rich poor, and middle class. The truth is it has benefited multi national business, it's shareholders, politicians, lobbyists, and global bankers. The open borders, open immigration, and free trade policies have not benefited the many, just the few.
30
On both sides of the aisle...
4
This referendum has been degenerated into party politics and lacks objectivity and common sense. In our times Europe should stay together and work on a solution for a far not perfect EU. Britain would have the power and influence to change the EU. Building walls won't help.
4
Sorry, dear. They've had fifty years in Brussels, but they took a wrong turning when they thought they could create a multi-national state in the USA style. The imperatives for the EU are quite different from those of the founding fathers.
It's harder to fashion a new super-state out of a large group of oldies.
It's harder to fashion a new super-state out of a large group of oldies.
3
Another NY Times story asks, "Are Markets Too Complacent About the Global Economy"?
How about this question, "Are the World's Economies Too Dependent on the Markets"?
The answer is yes, and when the massive credit card debt is taken into account, the coming crash is going to be bad, very bad indeed.
How about this question, "Are the World's Economies Too Dependent on the Markets"?
The answer is yes, and when the massive credit card debt is taken into account, the coming crash is going to be bad, very bad indeed.
4
The UK depends on financial services for an outsized proportion of its GDP. The comparison to adopting the euro is specious here because within the hard limit of 2 years of Brexit, the UK will be outside the preferential conditions of the EU trading zone looking in.
While the "real" trading economy will have a harder time pulling up stakes, services and particularly finance will shift much more quickly to the continent. While continental exporters to the UK will be hit by ricochet from more trading friction and a fall in UK demand due reduced currency value, "Real" economy continental trading positions won't find it terribly difficult to adjust with a higher purchasing power and shift to other suppliers, including outside the EU (China, the US).
The richest countries and cities inside the EU trading zone will experience a windfall from the shift of business outside the City : Luxemburg, Frankfurt, Geneva and Zurich. Edmond de Rothschild has forecast a 34% drop in the pound.
Make your bets now.
While the "real" trading economy will have a harder time pulling up stakes, services and particularly finance will shift much more quickly to the continent. While continental exporters to the UK will be hit by ricochet from more trading friction and a fall in UK demand due reduced currency value, "Real" economy continental trading positions won't find it terribly difficult to adjust with a higher purchasing power and shift to other suppliers, including outside the EU (China, the US).
The richest countries and cities inside the EU trading zone will experience a windfall from the shift of business outside the City : Luxemburg, Frankfurt, Geneva and Zurich. Edmond de Rothschild has forecast a 34% drop in the pound.
Make your bets now.
1
I would agree with that if Britain was using the Euro, but with the same pound sterling currency, I just don't see it.
3
Isn't it extraordinary that the alleged financial "wizard", Donald J. Trump, had no idea what "Brexit" was. He invests millions in a golf course in Scotland and hasn't the faintest idea what it is about. He is done and so is the EU. Stick a fork in both.
6
There seems plenty of disinformation with regards the economic impact on Britain. Britain is not part of the euro zone and it does share a currency with the rest of the EU. if it leaves, so what?
The only economic benefit it gets from the EU is the so called "single market" where tariffs between countries are zero. EU external tariffs average 2.7% on manufactured goods. That is what the US typically pays if it sells its goods into the EU. The external tariff is 10% for cars, however Britain has a trade deficit on automobiles. The Germans will want to retain access to the lucrative British market. Free trade deals are popular internationally. The South Koreans have one with the EU and they pay zero tariffs on their exports to the EU. Britain has been told that the EU won't offer the UK a similar deal as a punishment for leaving. This makes little sense.
In return for zero tariffs, Britain has to contribute to the EU budget and this equates to a tariff of 7% on British goods. The EU is not value for money. The markets are panicking but it is not clear why.
The only economic benefit it gets from the EU is the so called "single market" where tariffs between countries are zero. EU external tariffs average 2.7% on manufactured goods. That is what the US typically pays if it sells its goods into the EU. The external tariff is 10% for cars, however Britain has a trade deficit on automobiles. The Germans will want to retain access to the lucrative British market. Free trade deals are popular internationally. The South Koreans have one with the EU and they pay zero tariffs on their exports to the EU. Britain has been told that the EU won't offer the UK a similar deal as a punishment for leaving. This makes little sense.
In return for zero tariffs, Britain has to contribute to the EU budget and this equates to a tariff of 7% on British goods. The EU is not value for money. The markets are panicking but it is not clear why.
12
No Brit - or Yank, for that matter - trusts that our toffee-nosed 1% politicians will do to anything that does not benefit them and/or their corporate masters.
In the US, after 50+ years of insisting that open borders will bring us all prosperity - we have to wait just a bit longer - it is clear that the 'prosperity' they were talking about all this time is their own.
The Left cares only about immigrants and any objections to the massive influx of low skilled immigrants will be met by cries of 'racist!' and 'xenophobe!'.
The Right cares only about cheap labor, so they support flooding the country with new workers, preferably with no rights - H1B visas and illegal aliens.
Neither cares a whit about the citizens.
Go Brexit!
In the US, after 50+ years of insisting that open borders will bring us all prosperity - we have to wait just a bit longer - it is clear that the 'prosperity' they were talking about all this time is their own.
The Left cares only about immigrants and any objections to the massive influx of low skilled immigrants will be met by cries of 'racist!' and 'xenophobe!'.
The Right cares only about cheap labor, so they support flooding the country with new workers, preferably with no rights - H1B visas and illegal aliens.
Neither cares a whit about the citizens.
Go Brexit!
20
Global warming could also accelerate suddenly next week after the vote.
Doom and gloom.
Bankers always paint a catastrophe picture. Amazing thing is ...they always get the big bonuses no matter what happens.
Doom and gloom.
Bankers always paint a catastrophe picture. Amazing thing is ...they always get the big bonuses no matter what happens.
14
If the Bankers and Jamie Dimon want to stay, it is time to leave.
50
What hasn't really been discussed in these comments is that unfortunately many voters tend to vote with emotions rather than common sense.
Reading the comments from some of the French and the American commentators, I as a Brit am not feeling a whole lot of love here. That's been an ongoing problem with Britain's membership of the EU.
Brexit will be a disaster mainly because of EU threats guaranteeing poor exit terms which will undoubtedly deter any other member state thinking of their own exit.
Condescending and patronizing remarks from Obama, Wolfgang Schauble and other European nations aren't helping the UK voters make the decision to stay in. It only makes the Brexiters more defiant.
Reading the comments from some of the French and the American commentators, I as a Brit am not feeling a whole lot of love here. That's been an ongoing problem with Britain's membership of the EU.
Brexit will be a disaster mainly because of EU threats guaranteeing poor exit terms which will undoubtedly deter any other member state thinking of their own exit.
Condescending and patronizing remarks from Obama, Wolfgang Schauble and other European nations aren't helping the UK voters make the decision to stay in. It only makes the Brexiters more defiant.
9
"Reading the comments from some of the French and the American commentators, I as a Brit am not feeling a whole lot of love here. That's been an ongoing problem with Britain's membership of the EU. "
Not feeling a lot of love from EU countries? I take it you don't read the British press...
Not feeling a lot of love from EU countries? I take it you don't read the British press...
2
Exactly...vote Leave
4
You are clutching at straws. If we decide to leave, we will leave. Project your thoughts forward to the attempted impositions of poor exit terms. What means of enforcement will Brussels have, in reality, to impose any terms? If the UK says, 'No deal - Goodbye', what exactly is the EU's redress? Bear in mind the world has moved on two years - new forces are at play: possibly others are pulling out, or the Eurozone crisis has come home to roost. How do you think Germany, France and Italy's commercial worlds would react to being told they may now only trade with the UK on punitive terms?
2
If you want a global financial shock and recession that will help usher in President Trump, vote for Brexit.
8
Its always some new doom and gloom, 2 years ago, Greece collapse meant the end of Western civilization.
Next its Puerto Rico,
Next England.
Nothing will happen except maybe Goldman Sachs traders will have to accept a $4 million bonus this quarter rather than the 6million they were expecting.
Next its Puerto Rico,
Next England.
Nothing will happen except maybe Goldman Sachs traders will have to accept a $4 million bonus this quarter rather than the 6million they were expecting.
13
You do understand that Americans don't have a vote and that the Brits could care less about Trump.
2
Thanks for the fully reasoned and in-depth explanation, Mark. You're a wizard.
2
UK and Scotland your are welcome to join the US, Canada and Mexico in NAFTA. C'mon over !
2
It has been argued, this is where they should have been all along. If the UK does leave the EU, it can be argued there is more in common with the average Brit and average American they many want to think.
1
Out of the frying pan and into the fire!
1
@cash I hope you are right, but I'm convinced you misjudge the situation.
The effects of Brexit will be whatever the speculators who manage the world financial casino decide it should be -- i.e., whatever is in the interest of the speculators. It won't have anything to do with the effect of Brexit on the real economy, because the speculators won't wait to find out. Welcome to the world of the 1%.
42
Who cares if they leave? Will this mean we won't have so many "news" stories about the so-called royal family (public leeches)?
3
Jamie Dimon is also quoted.
Jamie Dimon and Blankfein and all those criminals on Wall Street should all have been serving time in Fed pens. Yet, the very people that drove us to collapse are regarded as the sources of wisdom now.
Jamie Dimon and Blankfein and all those criminals on Wall Street should all have been serving time in Fed pens. Yet, the very people that drove us to collapse are regarded as the sources of wisdom now.
8
I love the royal family. What's your problem? They do a good service for the country.
4
I'll admit that I have mixed feelings about the monarchy, but consider a few things.
Without the monarchy, do you think there'd be as many tourists visiting Buckingham Hotel?
I'm not sure I'd be as interested in seeing the security guard shift change in place of the Changing of the Guard.
Maybe the Royal Mews will replace its gilded carriage collection with late model Vauxhalls and rename it the Buckingham Hotel Valet Parking.
And maybe the Royal Warrant Holders appellation would be replaced by As Seen on TV.
Without the monarchy, do you think there'd be as many tourists visiting Buckingham Hotel?
I'm not sure I'd be as interested in seeing the security guard shift change in place of the Changing of the Guard.
Maybe the Royal Mews will replace its gilded carriage collection with late model Vauxhalls and rename it the Buckingham Hotel Valet Parking.
And maybe the Royal Warrant Holders appellation would be replaced by As Seen on TV.
2
Can anyone really blame the UK for considering leaving the EU?
Yes, there have been definite economic benefits for being in the EU. There have also been significant costs.
Can anyone in the US imagine if laws were passed literally by an unelected bureaucracy in a foreign country that we had to abide by? People here would rightfully be in an uproar, but that's basically what has happened in the UK.
It's another example of how government expansion is detrimental.
The UK sees a colossal superstate forming with sky high unemployment, welfare left and right, weakening entrance requirements, governmental bickering, etc.
I don't know how it will work out for them if they leave the EU, but I can understand completely why they are thinking about it.
Yes, there have been definite economic benefits for being in the EU. There have also been significant costs.
Can anyone in the US imagine if laws were passed literally by an unelected bureaucracy in a foreign country that we had to abide by? People here would rightfully be in an uproar, but that's basically what has happened in the UK.
It's another example of how government expansion is detrimental.
The UK sees a colossal superstate forming with sky high unemployment, welfare left and right, weakening entrance requirements, governmental bickering, etc.
I don't know how it will work out for them if they leave the EU, but I can understand completely why they are thinking about it.
48
The EU is not the monster the Brexit defenders pass. The Union is the single most important achievement in the development of the continent, but that means some restraint on individual countries.
If a big, powerful country like the UK feels threatened by their presence in the EU is merely due to the idea of losing sovereignty, which is highly exaggerated.
Is countries have to abide to community rules, regarding almost every aspect of life but all those rules were designed by the Union and for the Union. If a Portuguese cow farmer can’t exceed his quota on milk producing it’s only to protect every other farmer in the EU. If a British bank folds, all of the EU and the ECB will back the issue.
It’s a Union, but some of us are just scared of commitment, others like the Brits prefer to believe we are better off singles.
(This commentary is based on wild generalizations…)
If a big, powerful country like the UK feels threatened by their presence in the EU is merely due to the idea of losing sovereignty, which is highly exaggerated.
Is countries have to abide to community rules, regarding almost every aspect of life but all those rules were designed by the Union and for the Union. If a Portuguese cow farmer can’t exceed his quota on milk producing it’s only to protect every other farmer in the EU. If a British bank folds, all of the EU and the ECB will back the issue.
It’s a Union, but some of us are just scared of commitment, others like the Brits prefer to believe we are better off singles.
(This commentary is based on wild generalizations…)
5
Chris O: You ask, ""Can anyone in the US imagine if laws were passed literally by an unelected bureaucracy in a foreign country that we had to abide by?""
The vast majority of the policies, legislation, and action coming out of Washington DC, "passed" by representatives from Alabama, South Carolina, and other aeries of medieval religiosity (representatives for whom I have no vote) appear to be passed by an unelected bureaucracy in a foreign country. I believe that country is known as "Jesus-stan."
www.yescalifornia.org
The vast majority of the policies, legislation, and action coming out of Washington DC, "passed" by representatives from Alabama, South Carolina, and other aeries of medieval religiosity (representatives for whom I have no vote) appear to be passed by an unelected bureaucracy in a foreign country. I believe that country is known as "Jesus-stan."
www.yescalifornia.org
10
Substitute unelected bureaucracy for Mega corporations and you understand why there is fierce opposition to the TPP. Like England, we want our local sovereignty as well.
2
The notion of Brexit has existed for decades, with threats of leaving the EU coupled with special treatment. British arrogance is still alive and well and the longing for past imperial greatness lingers. Only now the world is not insular, the economy is global, and the strength of the pound has diminished. London will remain a great city but it will be seen as the capital of a diminished country longing for past glory.
8
Hi Baboulas. Appreciate your point of view, but in general we British view our colonial past with a pretty high degree of shame. Our Commonwealth is a family of equals, no more, no less. Best wishes. A brit.
5
I pretty much love everything British and and UK! With or without the EU, you guys have a certain je nais c'est quoi! Long live Britain!
4
Hmm, complimenting England in French from a former American colony!
1
Edmond de Rothschild has forecast a 34% drop in value for the pound, and is taking position on that basis. Others are less pessimistic by discussing parity with the euro. I get the feeling we're on the eve of a Soros level economic shock for Britain. I wonder what that will do for the City, not to mention your average Brit?
Best of luck to all, it will be an exciting ride.
Best of luck to all, it will be an exciting ride.
4
Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland are not part of the European Union. While Iceland's economy collapsed when the 2008 financial crisis hit, there is evidence to suggest that all three of these countries over the long-run weathered the effects of the financial crisis better than the 28 member states of the European Union. The UK is not part of the euro zone and so the lessons of Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland might indicate that there could be benefits of the British leaving the EU.
7
Together Iceland, Norway and Switzerland don't represent 20% of the UK's population and economy, and their economic interests aren't as tied to EU policy. Yet the commonality is between these countries is their relatively small, niche economies AND that the latter 2 adhere to EU law INCLUDING immigration, without participating in influencing EU policy.
The UK doesn't have the same options. May I remind you that the UK is highly dependent on the City for a disproportionate share of its GDP. It has demonstrated this dependency through endless demands for accomodation on EU policy (market and monetary policy essentially) not only for itself, but to impede or block EU integration among countries, essentially vetoing (euro) regulations which have the slightest possibility of impacting the City's business.
With Brexit those days will be over, and London will very quickly find itself reeling. The spillover into the hinterlands will not be a pretty sight.
The UK doesn't have the same options. May I remind you that the UK is highly dependent on the City for a disproportionate share of its GDP. It has demonstrated this dependency through endless demands for accomodation on EU policy (market and monetary policy essentially) not only for itself, but to impede or block EU integration among countries, essentially vetoing (euro) regulations which have the slightest possibility of impacting the City's business.
With Brexit those days will be over, and London will very quickly find itself reeling. The spillover into the hinterlands will not be a pretty sight.
4
I think you are comparing 3 Apples to 1 Orange.
4
The UK public appears to misunderstand the EU. That some UK businesses feel the pressure to harmonise to common standards is not a side effect of EU integration. The EU is a layering of negociated treaties between nations, which primarily creates a level playing field within the bloc and leverages collective strength outside. The pound may have helped the UK during the 2008 financial crisis, but it is by no means a panacea. The pound may very well be its Achilles heel. Soros level players ready to bankrupt the UK to make a few billion for themselves, in the uncharted waters of Brexit chaos. Sovereignty is an illusion or (delusioanl) for the UK.
The UK is henceforth in for a rocky road in or out of the EU. the UK has used its treaty powers to protect its (primarilily) banking interests by stymying euro integration. Outside the EU it will have no such power to impede and one can expect such laws to flourish as quickly as bankers move their business to Frankfurt. Remaining within the EU, its partners will no longer tolerate its special pleas. The executive editor made Germany's view, and that many other countries as well, in Der Spiegel, a large circulation German language publication. To paraphrase he wrote IN ENGLISH for a UK readership : please stay, we need you to help improve the EU you helped build. However if you decide to leave you'll be on the outside looking in, and don't expect not to feel the weight of EU's overwhelming bargaining power.
The UK is henceforth in for a rocky road in or out of the EU. the UK has used its treaty powers to protect its (primarilily) banking interests by stymying euro integration. Outside the EU it will have no such power to impede and one can expect such laws to flourish as quickly as bankers move their business to Frankfurt. Remaining within the EU, its partners will no longer tolerate its special pleas. The executive editor made Germany's view, and that many other countries as well, in Der Spiegel, a large circulation German language publication. To paraphrase he wrote IN ENGLISH for a UK readership : please stay, we need you to help improve the EU you helped build. However if you decide to leave you'll be on the outside looking in, and don't expect not to feel the weight of EU's overwhelming bargaining power.
7
Trouble is, everyone said that before when telling UK what it would be like if it failed to join the euro, and most countries that are in the euro wouldn't vote to join it now.
5
@Ian, the comparison to adopting the euro is specious, and you know it. May I remind you that the UK is highly dependent on the City for a disproportionate share of its GDP. It has demonstrated this dependency through endless demands for accomodation on EU policy (market and monetary policy essentially) not only for itself, but to impede or block EU integration among countries, essentially vetoing (euro) regulations which have the slightest possibility of impacting the City's business.
With Brexit those days will be over, and London will very quickly find itself reeling. The spillover into the hinterlands will not be a pretty sight.
With Brexit those days will be over, and London will very quickly find itself reeling. The spillover into the hinterlands will not be a pretty sight.
4
Don't worry, Ian. You will see from Andy's comments, both above and below, that contrary to virtually the whole world not knowing what will follow Brexit - he does know. You may put your faith in his predictions. They are bound to be spot on.
2
Could be the beginning of the end of the neo-liberal economics juggernaut.
Wouldn't that be nice.
Wouldn't that be nice.
11
Britain joins the ranks of USA's Louisiana, Alabama and other redneck states as yet another example of myopic selfishness; fear of the brown other; "Conservatism" killing economic opportunity and shooting themselves in the head.
10
Great Britain needs to get of the European Union while the getting is good. Save your cultural identity and economy before it is swallowed by the continent, which itself is becoming a repository for illegal Muslim immigrants who refuse to assimilate into the culture of their host countries.
27
The only reason there is an EU is so that the banksters can rip off all those countries at once rather than each individually. Much easier. Let GB drop out and then too bad, the banksters will lose money and go out of business. Good for them. Solution: tax the rich, tax the corporations, tax all the Republican'ts out of existence just as was done in the 1940s thru 1970s.
3
The EU is a deeply flawed institution. It is not democratic, and is opaque. It is seen as a subordination of national interests to an elite ruling class.
Yet, the EU is also a brilliant vision in which Europe lives in peace and prosperity.
The US has a similar issue, but with a more robust solution. Nobody doubts that Texas, New York, California, and other states maintain their own identities. Everybody who cares to look can see that the strength of the union gives those states more combined security, wealth, and influence in the world.
So, the options for Britain and Europe are to move forward to a stronger union with democratic structures, and coordinated fiscal and social policies, or to move backward to a continent of squabbling xenophobic rivals.
Unfortunately, this referendum poses the question differently: Stay where you are or move backward. Phrased this way, moving backwards seems the better option to many.
Yet, the EU is also a brilliant vision in which Europe lives in peace and prosperity.
The US has a similar issue, but with a more robust solution. Nobody doubts that Texas, New York, California, and other states maintain their own identities. Everybody who cares to look can see that the strength of the union gives those states more combined security, wealth, and influence in the world.
So, the options for Britain and Europe are to move forward to a stronger union with democratic structures, and coordinated fiscal and social policies, or to move backward to a continent of squabbling xenophobic rivals.
Unfortunately, this referendum poses the question differently: Stay where you are or move backward. Phrased this way, moving backwards seems the better option to many.
4
There will be no good outcome in Brexit for anybody. Easier interconnection, especially economic interconnection, serves everybody, and anything else is a jingoistic fantasy. It's a fantasy in which some of my otherwise quite intelligent British friends have excelled now for decades.
7
All you Brits with houses in France, Spain & Portugal enjoying services as a European ctitzen better get ready... And what about you French in London?
8
To treat the EU as a textbook case study of the application of one form of economic dogma ("Economics 101") is to fundamentally misunderstand the nature of the EU. The EU is a complex layering of (so far) ever expanding cooperation and treaties between nations, no more and certainly no less.
Although the pound has helped the UK weather the 2008 financial crisis to some extent, it is by no means a panacea and may very well end up being the UK's Achilles heel. There remain plenty Soros level players ready to bankrupt the UK to make a few billion for themselves, and there is no better environment for doing so than uncharted waters (ie chaos).
I say good luck to the UK, but it is in for a rocky road either way. I'm less of a pessimist for the rest of Europe in case of a Brexit, because the UK has used its treaty powers to protect its (primarilily) banking interests by stymying euro integration. Outside the EU it will have no such power to impede and one can expect such laws to flourish as quickly as bankers move their business to Frankfurt.
Although the pound has helped the UK weather the 2008 financial crisis to some extent, it is by no means a panacea and may very well end up being the UK's Achilles heel. There remain plenty Soros level players ready to bankrupt the UK to make a few billion for themselves, and there is no better environment for doing so than uncharted waters (ie chaos).
I say good luck to the UK, but it is in for a rocky road either way. I'm less of a pessimist for the rest of Europe in case of a Brexit, because the UK has used its treaty powers to protect its (primarilily) banking interests by stymying euro integration. Outside the EU it will have no such power to impede and one can expect such laws to flourish as quickly as bankers move their business to Frankfurt.
11
Brexit is actually a vote against the elites (Cameron and like-minded) and their financial institution lapdogs (e.g. the insufferably smug Jamie Dimon). The middle class is tired of being lectured to while their jobs disappear and the out-of-site wealthy grow in power.
So the only way to grow an economy is unlimited immigration and trade? How has that been working lately?
So the only way to grow an economy is unlimited immigration and trade? How has that been working lately?
77
"The middle class is tired of being lectured to while their jobs disappear".....With Brexit they won't have to listen to lectures while they watch their jobs disappear twice as fast.
18
@DeeBee
Rochester, Michigan
So how do you explain that if Brexit is defeated it will be principally because of the votes of the populist Labour, Scottish Nationalist and Liberal Democratic parties who are all virtually uniformly in favor of Britain remaining in the EU? It is the conservative who are split and they are allied with various extreme right wing parties like UKIP, the national front, etc. You won't of course
Rochester, Michigan
So how do you explain that if Brexit is defeated it will be principally because of the votes of the populist Labour, Scottish Nationalist and Liberal Democratic parties who are all virtually uniformly in favor of Britain remaining in the EU? It is the conservative who are split and they are allied with various extreme right wing parties like UKIP, the national front, etc. You won't of course
8
"So the only way to grow an economy is unlimited immigration and trade? How has that been working lately?"
For most of the world, amazing well. Across the globe, incomes have risen and millions have escaped poverty. But people like you apparently cannot stand to see the majority of humankind rise.
For most of the world, amazing well. Across the globe, incomes have risen and millions have escaped poverty. But people like you apparently cannot stand to see the majority of humankind rise.
The English will get exactly what they deserve if they leave the E.U.
This whole thing is driven by classic English hubris and conservative politics of fear.
All that inauthentic pomp and circumstance and god save the queen stuff will not help England if they exit.
Perhaps the glorious Scotland can finally get the independence they deserve!
This whole thing is driven by classic English hubris and conservative politics of fear.
All that inauthentic pomp and circumstance and god save the queen stuff will not help England if they exit.
Perhaps the glorious Scotland can finally get the independence they deserve!
17
The glorious Scotland had the chance of independence...they chose not to have it...and it will be up to Brits to decide and no one else.
2
Back in 1988, The Economist ran an editorial titled "If Sterling Stays Parochial", arguing that the pound needed to become more integrated with the (pre-Euro) monetary system of Europe. The cover, with the same headline, depicted a map of the City (London's financial district), with all of the streets labeled—in German.
The point, valid then, remains valid today. Given Brexit, the center of gravity of Europe will shift eastwards, and Berlin will wax as London wanes.
The point, valid then, remains valid today. Given Brexit, the center of gravity of Europe will shift eastwards, and Berlin will wax as London wanes.
2
Good luck to 'em. They've just finished paying down their splurge on East Germany. Now they're going to integrate Syria.
5
I hope the UK has the courage to vote LEAVE, and I look forward to the fear mongering cowards being proven wrong as the UK will thrive politically and economically outside the EU. It's extremely frustrating to watch that smug cadre of unelected bankers in Brussels run their secretive, paternalistic and undemocratic system as they believe they cannot be ousted by any democratic election, while seeing footage of protesters trying to democratically protest inhumane and harsh EU Austerity measures in Greece being beaten by police in black riot gear. Observing the citizens within the EU losing their birthright to live in a free and democratic society in favor of some so-called stable banking system (which is very weak and unstable) is appalling and repugnant. That emperor has no clothes.
35
And if you are wrong?
5
Even if Britain votes for Brexit, why does everyone assume they know the details of that? Can it not ease out over years? Can there not be other treaties put in place to handle business transactions, pensions for ex-pats, etc? If all Britain wants is self determination on whether it will take more bloody immigrants, it would be a good time for Germany to back off telling other countries what to do about the immigration mess Germany made. Could the US help by putting the USS Comfort and support ships into the Med between Greece, Italy and the southern shore?
6
Next week we will be given an arms-length view of if voters will drown their struggling economy in the bathtub to carry out a misguided platform of global isolation from a sensationalized threat, causing real, lasting economic ruin. In November, we will get our chance in the US to do the same thing.
8
Brits who vote for Brexit are living in the past. They overlook all that the EU has done for them. The Eu gives the UK back a central role in the world that it lost with its Empire. Does anyone remember that before the UK joined, English was not an official language of the Common Market?
And what are the burdensome laws that they complain of? Laws that provide for "respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities."
And what are the burdensome laws that they complain of? Laws that provide for "respect for human dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, the rule of law and respect for human rights, including the rights of persons belonging to minorities."
9
In 1973 when the UK, Ireland and Denmark joined the EEC, as it was then called, it consisted of Belgium, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Italy, France and West Germany. Please may you tell me which of those six countries has English as their national language?
2
Judging from who is whining the most about Brexit, i have to think it would be a good thing for most people not only in the UK. A smaller banking sector could lead to more affordable rents in London and scaling down the bureaucratic monster in Brussels would even a good thing for all people on the continent.
25
Britain has never been part of Europe. They started by refusing the euro, getting the 'Thathcher Check' from Europe, negotiating every advantage they can go for, at the same time licking up to the USA, using Australia, Canada, New Zealand for trade advantage. It was ironic to hear Gordon Brown talk in favour of Europe all the while justifying why he voted against the euro... Ask any Brit if they are European, they will say they are Brit/English/Welsh/Scot, not European. And David Cameron prostituting himself to stay in office; history will not speak kindly of him. Wisdom tells me to hope they will stay, my European skin says let them go and good riddance !
9
I hope the UK has the courage to vote LEAVE, and I look forward to the fear mongering cowards being proven wrong as the UK will thrive politically and economically outside the EU. It's extremely frustrating to watch that smug cadre of unelected bankers in Brussels run their secretive, paternalistic and undemocratic system as they believe they cannot be ousted by any democratic election, while seeing footage of protesters trying to democratically protest inhumane and harsh EU Austerity measures in Greece being beaten by police in black riot gear. Observing the citizens within the EU losing their birthright to live in a free and democratic society in favor of some so-called stable banking system (which is very weak and unstable) is appalling and repugnant. That emperor has no clothes.
5
The extent to which the voices for "Remain" have resorted to hyperbole and disaster scenarios causes me to be skeptical of all of what they say. I really don't think this is going to be the end of civilization, or at least "the end of Western political civilization" as Donald Tusk put it a few days ago. No, the sky is not going to fall.
Short term difficult adjustments? Probably.
But countries will adjust. Money will flow again. The lawyers for the rich will find ways for their clients to profit from whatever new system emerges.
Short term difficult adjustments? Probably.
But countries will adjust. Money will flow again. The lawyers for the rich will find ways for their clients to profit from whatever new system emerges.
13
The hyperbole is on the wrong foot IMHO...
1
Black swan events DO happen occasionally, you know. For the people involved in them, the sky DOES fall then. But sure, "something" is surviving most of the time.
2
There is only one issue - the sovereignty of parliament. Everything else flows from that. We first tried to, then eventually did, join the European Economic Community. We didn't want, and still don't want, to give away our precious parliamentary self-determination to a bunch of unelected and faceless European Commission bureaucratic officials supported by an impotent and cosmetic parliament in Strasbourg. What kind of people do they think we are? (Sorry, Winston.)
51
GB has been on the skids since WWI. Remember all the free goods and money the US gave GB to help it survive during WWII. Without the EU, GB's standard of living will plummet ever further. You need the EU far more than the EU needs you. But go ahead and cut off your noses to spite your faces.
5
If only you knew how wrong you are. The USA wanted payment for everything that was sent to us, and as a result we were in debt to Uncle Sam for decades. We paid up, including interest (which was never relaxed) until the debt was finally paid off. Your government wanted every cent - and they got it. I recall that the debt was cleared less than ten years ago now. It was well publicised over here, complete with the Fed's gratitude in having such a steadfast debtor. You would do well not to comment, because you simply do not know enough.
4
@ Jeff
Many Brits are fine with a lower standard of living to have their country the way they want it to be, not the way the 1% want it to be.
Why is that so wrong?
Many Brits are fine with a lower standard of living to have their country the way they want it to be, not the way the 1% want it to be.
Why is that so wrong?
1
'All plans will be subject to change.'
It's going to be a fantastic lesson about the consequences of having an economy based on Finance - Fake Values and Speculation.
And for How suicidal the Money Slosh actually has become...
It's going to be a fantastic lesson about the consequences of having an economy based on Finance - Fake Values and Speculation.
And for How suicidal the Money Slosh actually has become...
4
If the UK leaves the EU, it would be the ultimate triumph of the ignorant masses over those who know better about what is good for them. No-one with an education in economics or finance, which are the relevant subjects here, would advocate for an exit. No, what we're seeing here is the same anti-immigrant hysteria whipped up by people in power who know exactly what they're doing - ie manipulating working class hardships for their own gain. Sound like any Presidential candidate in the US?
20
I have family members on both sides of the issue and I wouldn't consider any of them to be ignorant. For people such as yourself this may come down only to economics/finance, but for many others the issue of national/local autonomy is equally important. For myself, I'm a little torn because I can see economic risks and constitutional/democratic rewards, and it's unclear how much of each a stay/leave vote will yield. It might be convenient to believe everyone who disagrees with you is stupid or bigoted, but it's far from the truth and not at all respectful of people who want the best for themselves, their families and their country.
1
I going to do exactly what Vanguard suggests. Take the long view. Sit tight. Remain calm. And, if the markets tank, I have some money on the sidelines I will put to good use.
Panic is futile.
Panic is futile.
5
The EU has been in a sustained crisis basically since 2008. It has intensified with the meltdowns and chaos accompanying the Arab Spring and the mass immigration toward Europe its precipitated. Nativism and racial animus runs high and a showdown comes next week with the Brexit referendum. Whatever the outcome, it does not look particularly well for the EU moving forward.
2
If the UK leaves the EU-they will pay the price for decades. England has already become a former shadow of itself financially. Cameron will be blamed as well. The only good news would be for Labour.
2
Let them go and have their own small country, with Scotland being independent and part of the EU. Maybe Ireland will be a single country instead of an English colony. And Spain should take over what rightfully belongs to them: Gibraltar.
3
And the Native Americans can take back what is rightfully theirs . . . .
2
This article seems to suggest that only Britain loses in the Brexit. It would seem to me that a weak Britain hurts the EU as well. That stated, it isn't in the interest of the EU to punish Britain to its own hurt. If Brexit should occur, ultimately solutions will be negotiated than minimize hurt to the interested parties.
4
GB has been weak since WWI. They get more from the EU than they give.
2
This Referendum will be remembered as David Cameron 's mistake in order to be re elected in 2013.Really silly and now he has to face the consequence for British generations to come for i think the Brexit will win.The only Referendum D.Cameron should have promised his people is a referendum for the Eurovision song contest.
11
This is the truth of the matter. Rather than resolve this matter within his own party he decided to put the country on the brink. EU membership for me, like a lot of Brits was not an issue but what this referendum campaign has shown is that within the two main political parties, there is no love, passion or vision for the EU, just the message of 'disaster' if we leave. I will be voting to remain but I fear the writing is on the wall; we are leaving.
2
Great Britain needs Brexit like the U.S. needs Trump.
If either of these come to a fruition, it will be a folly.
If either of these come to a fruition, it will be a folly.
13
All this doom and gloom glosses over the main thing: people in the UK feel they're getting a raw deal. They feel besieged and oppressed. The solution is to get rid of the causes of the complaints. If that means leaving the EU, that's the solution. If the EU (and the world) want the UK to stay, they need to fix the problems with EU regulations and law. And fixing does not just mean keeping the financiers and 51% of the voters happy: it means keeping the vast majority of the people happy.
5
I would prefer for the English to vote themselves out of the EU (keep Scotland in of course). Still you have to wonder about a campaign when one of the big arguments by the Leave campaign is that the Remain campaign is using Fear (fear of bad economic consequences) - when that's what the Leave campaign itself is using (only it's Fear of immigration).
And immigration? Hello, UK. Most of your immigration is coming from the commonwealth or the eastern EU; commonwealth immigration isn't going to change, and it's the UK who wanted the eastern European countries in the EU in the first place. But the Brits would prefer to whine rather than face up to their responsibilities - sort of like what they've done in Iraq.
And immigration? Hello, UK. Most of your immigration is coming from the commonwealth or the eastern EU; commonwealth immigration isn't going to change, and it's the UK who wanted the eastern European countries in the EU in the first place. But the Brits would prefer to whine rather than face up to their responsibilities - sort of like what they've done in Iraq.
20
I believe the Brits use the term "whinge" instead "whine" which they surely will be doing as they slide into third world status after the Brexit.
1
45% of all uk exports and 53% of imports are involved in data sharing/data transfer via the UK a large amount transiting to the U.S. this sharing all happens with the European safe harbour. If brexit happens this harbour will disappear and will have a massive impact for UK business. And a pain in the ass for anyone involved in the data business within the EU
22
The fundamental structure of the current arrangement in Europe is anti democratic. Where have banks ever been able to extort money from sovereign states, and even been able to force the fire sale of state assets in targeted countries, but in the EU, as it is currently administered by Germany through the EU, the ECB, and the complicit no longer IMF.
When states with unequal structural wealth are bound to the same currency unit, they have in fact lost any possibility of sovereignty, and by default, save for the UK, Germany is the only sovereign state left in Europe.
Only a few days ago the President of the European Investment Bank spoke of the need for a risk free European Investment Instrument...and how absurd is that within the context of a capitalistic system? On the same day, Mario Draghi practically begged the politicians to give some help to his obviously failed monetary policy of Quantitative Easing by generating some fiscal stimulus! Last week QE was extended to Corporate bonds. How is that for desperation?
Like it or not, without a proper Constitutionally Governed Federation of equal states, united in a democratic process of European Union, which is guided by the principles contained in Economics 101, and not Austrian econo babble, the EU experiment is doomed. To stay in the union, which is not in the least bit democratic, and never shall be, is to risk everything. As long as Britain has the pound, with the sovereignty it conveys, Britain can control its destiny.
When states with unequal structural wealth are bound to the same currency unit, they have in fact lost any possibility of sovereignty, and by default, save for the UK, Germany is the only sovereign state left in Europe.
Only a few days ago the President of the European Investment Bank spoke of the need for a risk free European Investment Instrument...and how absurd is that within the context of a capitalistic system? On the same day, Mario Draghi practically begged the politicians to give some help to his obviously failed monetary policy of Quantitative Easing by generating some fiscal stimulus! Last week QE was extended to Corporate bonds. How is that for desperation?
Like it or not, without a proper Constitutionally Governed Federation of equal states, united in a democratic process of European Union, which is guided by the principles contained in Economics 101, and not Austrian econo babble, the EU experiment is doomed. To stay in the union, which is not in the least bit democratic, and never shall be, is to risk everything. As long as Britain has the pound, with the sovereignty it conveys, Britain can control its destiny.
83
@Stephen J Johnston
Jacksonville Fl.
"As long as Britain has the pound, with the sovereignty it conveys, Britain can control its destiny. "
Total fantasy being propounded by someone who is clearly ignorant of Britain's economic situation not to mention history and geopolitical reality. The US barely controls its own destiny so a mid sized economic and military power like Britain certainly doesn't. That became very apparent in 1956 during the Suez crisis. The concept of sovereignty in our globalized world is largely a mirage. When international financial markets are joined at the hip by arbitrage and the law of one price (does Stephen J. Johnson have the slightest idea what these are...I doubt it) talk of the pound conferring sovereignty is risible. Totally risible.
Jacksonville Fl.
"As long as Britain has the pound, with the sovereignty it conveys, Britain can control its destiny. "
Total fantasy being propounded by someone who is clearly ignorant of Britain's economic situation not to mention history and geopolitical reality. The US barely controls its own destiny so a mid sized economic and military power like Britain certainly doesn't. That became very apparent in 1956 during the Suez crisis. The concept of sovereignty in our globalized world is largely a mirage. When international financial markets are joined at the hip by arbitrage and the law of one price (does Stephen J. Johnson have the slightest idea what these are...I doubt it) talk of the pound conferring sovereignty is risible. Totally risible.
13
Your conclusion is: As long as Britain has the pound, with the sovereignity it conveys, Britain can control its destiny. I don't see why a Brexit is necessary then, as long as Britain keeps its pound. And that's YOUR decision.
1
When one is capable of prescribing ex nihilo a "Constitutionally Governed Federation of equal states" for the EU, one wonders where the author has been for the last several decades. This comment appears to use plenty of words its author appears barely to comprehend, much less apply. Not to mention to demonstrate a complete lack of insight into the history of the construction of the EU.
To treat the EU as a textbook case study of the application of one form of economic dogma ("Economics 101") is to fundamentally misunderstand the nature of the EU.The EU is a complex layering of (so far) ever expanding cooperation and treaties between nations. And although the pound has helped the UK weather the 2008 financial crisis to some extent, as another reply aptly nots it is by no means a panacea. The pound may very well end up being the UK's Achilles heel. There remain plenty Soros level players ready to bankrupt the UK to make a few billion for themselves, and there is no better environment for doing so than uncharted waters (ie chaos).
I say good luck to the UK, but it is in for a rocky road either way. I'm less of a pessimist for the rest of Europe in case of a Brexit, because the UK has used its treaty powers to protect its (primarilily) banking interests by stymying euro integration. Outside the EU it will have no such power to impede and one can expect such laws to flourish as quickly as bankers move their business to Frankfurt.
To treat the EU as a textbook case study of the application of one form of economic dogma ("Economics 101") is to fundamentally misunderstand the nature of the EU.The EU is a complex layering of (so far) ever expanding cooperation and treaties between nations. And although the pound has helped the UK weather the 2008 financial crisis to some extent, as another reply aptly nots it is by no means a panacea. The pound may very well end up being the UK's Achilles heel. There remain plenty Soros level players ready to bankrupt the UK to make a few billion for themselves, and there is no better environment for doing so than uncharted waters (ie chaos).
I say good luck to the UK, but it is in for a rocky road either way. I'm less of a pessimist for the rest of Europe in case of a Brexit, because the UK has used its treaty powers to protect its (primarilily) banking interests by stymying euro integration. Outside the EU it will have no such power to impede and one can expect such laws to flourish as quickly as bankers move their business to Frankfurt.
4
Just what such a precarious world economy needs right now. More uncertainty.
If everyone is going to retrench in order to save himself from potentially high losses, we will see a return to depression which will last longer than the last one. But if the Brits are determined to follow the unknown the way some Americans seem ready to follow Trump, we are in for a rough landing...better a destructive crash.
If everyone is going to retrench in order to save himself from potentially high losses, we will see a return to depression which will last longer than the last one. But if the Brits are determined to follow the unknown the way some Americans seem ready to follow Trump, we are in for a rough landing...better a destructive crash.
15
A crash could be a good thing, just don't ask for any more bailouts then!
The pound is certainly going to fall by 20-30% if there is a vote for Brexit as several studies have suggested. Given that the UK already has a serious balance of payments deficit essentially financed by borrowing the immediate impact would be huge and far reaching. Quite apart from the obvious impact on import costs there are many minor but serious implications. About 1.5 million British pensioners live in Europe in places like Spain and Portugal. All of sudden their pensions are going to be cut by 30%. Then there's the value of domestic British assets all denominated in sterling. It's economic insanity. And while there is plenty of blame to go around you have to wonder what Cameron was thinking to allow this referendum in the first place to solve what was basically a political problem in his own conservative party.
71
Cameron was trying to get UKIP votes when he promised the referendum when campaigning for re election. The problem is the leave campaign is mostly fueled by the average British persons response to too much immigration. They're not thinking of the economic impact at all, unfortunately.
26
"About 1.5 million British pensioners live in Europe in places like Spain and Portugal. All of sudden their pensions are going to be cut by 30%. "
If they've been living there for a while, they won't be able to vote. So tough luck for them, I guess.
If they've been living there for a while, they won't be able to vote. So tough luck for them, I guess.
@abo
Paris
15 years.
Paris
15 years.