Europe and the Unthinkable

Jun 11, 2016 · 225 comments
Kash (Toronto)
Brexit will likely happen because the Euro elite placed unfettered movement ahead of any other policy. Freedom of movement is a laudable goal but in practice it punishes well run countries like Britain and Switzerland and burdens them with jobless citizens from countries that just can't get their economic acts together (Italy, Greece).

You can have integration without unfettered movement, sort of like what Canada has with America... Two countries with very integrated economies, close personal and family links, similar cultures, and very easy mobility, but restrictions on permanent settlement and benefits. It works quite well.
BR (New York)
"One of the world's two superpowers simply ceased to be". "A vast empire put itself out of existence and turned out the lights". Russia is not a Superpower???
It simply rebranded itself from the name Soviet Union to Russia. It's that thinking, which is promulgated through the media, that will get us into a war with Russia. Russia is indeed, today, a Superpower. Capable of as much destruction now as the early 1980s. Keeping peace with this nation should be our top priority.
ChesBay (Maryland)
I thought the EU was a questionable idea, in the first place, but now that it's established, I'd hate to see it fall apart. This kind of unity must be preserved as security against the Soviet Unions of the future. I hope cooler heads will prevail. NO BREXIT. Not now.
James Lee (Arlington, Texas)
This insightful column should resonate with Americans, because we also face the 'unthinkable,' the possibility that our traditional confidence in the future, rooted in a belief that each generation will live in a more prosperous and humane country than did the previous one, may no longer reflect reality. The economy's uneven performance, exemplified by stagnant average incomes, coupled with the relative decline of the country's influence in the world, have promoted a level of national pessimism not witnessed since the Great Depression.

Americans met that challenge, however, through the bold leadership of FDR, whose New Deal programs embodied the conviction that reforms, achieved through democratic methods, would restore prosperity while also preserving the nation's political institutions. Today, by contrast, far less daunting problems confront an electorate that may choose a man whose deceptive promises demand a retreat from the open society and major international role that made America a largely positive force in the world.

In this sense, Trump's emergence mirrors the rise of narrowly nationalistic parties in Europe, as well as the mushrooming support for Brexit. These trends all reflect an anxiety that only a retreat into national enclaves can protect the community against malignant outside forces, whether defined in terms of globalization or a Muslim invasion.

Elections in Europe and America will help determine whether fear or optimism shapes our future.
quilty (ARC)
Mr Cohen is doing a wonderful job avoiding discussion of the driving factors of opposition to the entities he believes are critical to preserving our way of life.

Realpolitik that demands the coherence of the Atlantic world depends on mechanisms to maintain that coherence. In the case of the EU, the mechanisms critical to maintaining the coherence of the Atlantic world are control over immigration and establishment of effective borders for the EU.

In the case of the TPP the real threat to the Atlantic world is the Investor Dispute Resolution system that tilts power ever more greatly toward corporations seeking to take advantage of cheap labor and environmental destruction for additional profits.

The Atlantic world is threatened because the leaders of the Atlantic world have ceded power to corporations, resulting in a disintegrating middle class via exporting jobs from the Atlantic world to cheaper nations or by mass immigration programs to bring cheap labor into the nations of the Atlantic world.

The Atlantic world cannot be maintained against a corporate power grab under the guise of globalization. Coherence requires control of borders.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
"Coherence requires control of borders."

Yes, as a first step. It also requires that those borders have more economic meaning. That applies to making them the borders of a working economy for the people within. That includes collecting taxes from those who want to offshore their profits. That includes trade *barriers* where appropriate, not just a borderless economic world.
Lilou (Paris, France)
This piece is incoherent. It's predicting dire trouble in Europe with no foundation.

The Soviet Union continues, under Putin. He is not loved in Europe. The friends of Putin who wish to leave the EU are not named.

The author says "conditions seem ripe", but for what? He says that Europe is increasingly unloved, that a Brexit would be the start of a collapsing EU and Trump says NATO is obsolete.

NATO's presence is not thought to be obsolete in Europe. That Hillary and Trump want Europe to pay more money to support NATO may be true, but, the organization is not obsolete. Citing Trump weakens the author's credibility.

While immigrants have fueled support for right-wing parties, these same parties essentially have one-note platforms...anti-immigrant. It takes more depth to run a country than one plank in a platform and voters recognize this. So far, none of these parties has succeeded in their election efforts.

The Brexit would not be tragic. London would still be a financial center with global ties. Europe would continue to do business with them, as would the rest of the world.

European sentiment on disolution of the EU is unfavorable. Europe has slowly, incrementally, glacially worked toward unification, and won't give up. It takes time to unify when each nation state has existed independently for centuries.

Even if it dissolved, trade and alliances would continue. Citing Kissinger was disturbing to read, given that realpolitik ignores all morality.
ChesBay (Maryland)
Moldova and Belarus are threatening to leave the EU, and the EU is threatening to kick out Greece. Measures should be employed in order to keep these countries in membership.
Armando Machado (Furadouro, Portugal)
But it's not just the economy.

The different countries that are part are not yet ready to be a federation, and desperately try to get as much as possible and give as little as possible. The differences that started the war of secession in the US, dividing a federation into two parts, can still be felt in each an every European nation. A more traditional Portuguese do not want to hear of Spain, a Frenchman worth his salt does not support England, Germany, due to its recent past, is feared by all, not to speak of the nations that emerged from the former Yugoslavia. Look, English is spoken by all americans, the EU has 24 official languages!More than two thousand years of history to separate us. There is much work to do. But the secession is not sure the solution.
On the other hand, Europe has another problem, that is, in my opinion, the most dangerous, and may feel also in the US, which is the problem of increasingly brazen corruption in the political moderate parties.
Now this is worrying because many voters, rather than trying to correct the mistakes and banish those bad political parties choose to vote for radical parties our politicals, left or right.
Why do you think a Nazi party lost the elections for just 3000 votes, in Austria, and such a radical guy as Trump may be the next US President?
And it is these radicals that can jeopardize our future because, with them we can only expect war, racism, xenophobia and, in the end, misery and dead.
Armando Machado (Furadouro, Portugal)
The fall of the Soviet Union and the Berlin Wall are past. It was the result of the emancipation of the people, tired of corrupt and bloody dictators.
There are events in history that the more you try to complicate matters, are simple to explain. It's the natural evolution! Similarly, later or earlier, China, North Korea or Venezuela will surely make this route. As much as the dictators, the "elites", try to limit the cultural evolution of people, civilization advances, faster or slower citizens make sense of reality and these remnants of the Middle Ages fall.
What is happening in the European Union? What is happening in Britain?
To quote James Carville, "It's the economy, stupid!"
England was always with one foot inside and one outside the EU. Margaret Thatcher, for example, was always reluctant, especially with regard to the mandatory transfer of funds to the Community cake, to help the poorest countries. I remember perfectly the difficulties that Portugal had to convince her to accept us, although we have an alliance of centuries.
The English always have a huge fear that the City lost power to Frankfurt. Failure to join the single currency, an essential step, is symptomatic of the nationalist/economist thought of England.
I could cite many of the facts that underpin the previous idea, but not worth it. It is money, financial power.
(continue next post)
Vexray (Spartanburg SC)
" A season of anger is upon the West."

It is the result of a failure of leadership in the West following the collapse of the U.S.S.R.

It is a failure of democracy which threw up egotistical, manipulating "leaders" cashing in on the "victory" or their religion - political freedom and free markets (words with which to exploit the rest of the world), with bankers as the new armies.

And real armies to impose "Western values" on other parts of the world by undemocratic means to get their way, without an understanding of other cultures, civilizations, and their values. The result is economic and social chaos at home and abroad including terrorism, and police state mindsets to deal with it all - not unlike the old U.S.S.R.

Yes, the U.S.S.R. vanished, but it's components remain in varying states. On the other hand the West grew and expanded and wished to be even bigger - and is on its way to being reorganized. But this takes clear thought, respect for the wishes of all different peoples and their aspirations, and real free (competitive and transparent) markets. Above all, genuine and enlightened leadership. Good luck with that.

The end result of "the anger" is Brexit, and the upcoming American election. Decisions taken in anger often produce consequence that are worse than what people were angry about in the first place.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
"It is the result of a failure of leadership in the West following the collapse of the U.S.S.R."

Exactly. That was a great opportunity for long range thinking. Instead we were told not to do "the vision thing" and instead wasted the opportunity on short term exploitation for private interests.
Babel (new Jersey)
Democracies always have had the seed of their own self-destruction. When narrow minded, uneducated, nationalistic, and emotional people turn out to the polls in large enough numbers they can in a blink tear down the structures that more learned and thoughtful leaders have erected. We are at the "Castle Keep" moment where our foundations can be exploded. Turn to the Miid-East and see ISIS blowing up the religious structures that have lasted for centuries. We have our own mad men in our midst.
Renho (Belgium)
The EU is on the path of disintegration due to two major factors. The first was the creation of a dysfunctional € zone, including poor and broken down countries such as Greece. This country was the target of greedy so-called investors, lending huge sums to irresponsable governments, knowing the country could never reimburse it. The second is the creation of the Schengen zone and the recent immigration crisis. Intellectuel pundits from the left such as Mr Cohen - an otherwise brilliant columnist - considered it blatant racism to oppose this uncontrolable influx of foreigners. They did not hesitate to shame Europeans for refusing this burden of mass immigration, the end of which is nowhere in sight. The true danger, lurking on the horizon, is illimited immigration from subsaharan Africa, a continent with a birthrate of 5 to 9 children/woman. Meanwhile, North America (such as the editors of the NYT and its columnists) from its safe heaven on the other side of the Atlantic, is lecturing us on what the EU should do. If the unthinkable happens, these pundits can take part of the blame. In the forseeable future hihgly qualified Europeans, fed up with what is happening in their homelands, will start their own migration to other shores. North America will become one of their destinations.
Renaldo (boston, ma)
After two years of working in Europe, I have become very sympathetic to the Brexit proponents and their rationale for leaving the Union. Much of the structural and administrative logic of Europe is pretty dysfunctional--just look at how bizarrely Brussels has handled the privacy debate and the bureaucratic power holders' panicked fear of Apple, Google, Amazon and Facebook.

The *idea* of Europe is compelling, and there's no question that Beethoven's Ninth belongs hand-in-hand with Shakespeare and Michelangelo. But again and again individual Europeans have demonstrated their utter inability to realize this idea in a productive way in terms of governance.

This dysfunctionality has been put on full display with Merkel's unilateral decision to open the floodgates to Middle Eastern and African migrants. If Germany had truly acted in a democratic manner by working to get consensus from a majority of countries, the migrant crisis would never have happened because the majority would have given Germany a reality check. The Mediterranean countries are already experiencing massive social stress without the migrants, add them to the mix and you've got the potential for a meltdown. Berlin was obviously oblivious to this potential.

If the Brexit begins the dissolution of Europe, then once again we can look to Berlin for the cause.
Antonio Galetti (Italy)
I'm amazed that you wonder for the imminent end of the United Europe. It was an announced end, based on a huge injustice perpetrated by the banks of the most powerful countries. I give you a small example: The euro is based on deutche Mark, which in Italy was worth 900 lire. By accepting the 'euro, Italians had to pay to have A € 1,920 lire. This means that from that moment every product that costs one euro is paid by more than twice its value by Italians. So the destruction of the economic and social impoverishment system was only a matter of time. If we consider that the governments to face the needs have increased taxes to over 60%, it will easily understood how Europeans hate the United Europe. We also add that with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the resumption of commercial traffic on the Russian market has become for Italy the third largest market for exports. What did think Europe? At the instigation of America, puts sanctions export to Russia and so our economy is falling lower and lower. In addition, each government could regulate the flow of monetary circulation, by printing if necessary other money. With the euro that is impossible. Now we have the problem of migrants and be assured that when the measure will be filled, Europe will be a big problem for the world and, "new leaders of the people“may e,merge.
Stieglitz Meir (Givataim, Israel)
“Absent NATO, Putin would already have devoured Estonia for post-Ukraine dessert”. The mirror-image statement from Russia would be: “Absent Russia, NATO would already have devoured Ukraine for post-Expansion (fat) dessert”. Little doubt the truth-value of the second hypothesis is much higher than that of the first.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
Exactly. We are rarely told of the huge "opportunities" the wealthy in the West saw to buy up the assets of Ukraine. It would have made them richer, and yet again impoverished Ukrainians. They had their eye on farmland, from which Ukrainians were to be run off. They had their eye on natural resources, from which profits would flow out of Ukraine, except for a few fat cats paid off. They intended to wipe out the "inefficient" post-Soviet industry of the country, tuning its most well to do areas into what in the US has become our Rust Belt, leaving mass unemployment of those with the best jobs.

But all that is said to have been a great favor to them. Westernizing you know. Just ask American steel towns.
Daniel12 (Wash. D.C.)
This was an interesting article. It would not be surprising to me to see the European Union break up. It seems the order of things in economics and politics to have something of a wave pattern, a pulsing, a rising and falling...Of course we are familiar with nations, empires, rising and falling in history, but take any modern nation--the economic booms and busts of nation--the cyclical economic process: This is the nation "collapsing" and "coming together again", only we do not speak of it in sense of Soviet Union type collapse or possible European Union type problem because the people in the nation speak the same language, have much in common, in a sense cannot really divorce each other, so what happens is that in "collapse state" (economic bust) many people are just shrugged off into lower class status where they hope the nation will economically boom again...

In a situation such as Soviet Union or European Union, where people are not firmly held together in common, it's as if a single nation were to fragment into various parts which go their own way because of an economic collapse...Entities such as European Union and Soviet Union are in "nation terms", extremely fragile, poorly integrated nations which can fragment from economic shock. It is rather probable such structures will collapse because they cannot just act as single nation in economic bust and just push a significant number of people into poverty...Who gets to prosper and who suffers in EU bust/boom cycles?
Will (New York, NY)
It is Angela Merkel's misguided policy of virtually unlimited immigration that will threaten the EU and is creating space for far right nationalists in Germany. She is a madwoman and ironically will single handedly destroy her beloved union.

I was in Berlin 10 days ago and currently am currently visiting London. Massive middle east immigration is opposed by everyone and they will vote in any way they can to stop it. It is the number one reason for 'Brexit" support. If Europe wants to keep Britain in the EU it should announce a complete end to this disastrous policy YESTERDAY.
SusieQ (Europe)
Thank you Mr. Cohen for this article. There are those of us who are terrified of Britain's possible exit, because powers in far more fragile "democracies" (I believe one commenter said "fascism is not dominant" - ahem, please look East - Poland and Hungary are on the verge, in fact Hungary may already be there), will take advantage of the exit to promote their nationalist, dictatorial agendas. Without the tight reins of the EU, Hungary would be a mini Putinist state by now and the rights of minorities and dissenters would be in serious jeopardy. We need the EU to maintain stability and offer the children of this region some hope for a future. One commenter claimed Europe has no appetite for warfare. Really? Without the EU, the skirmishes in the Ukraine (I believe we can call it warfare) could easily spread to the EU countries on the eastern borders and that would be a tragedy.
Brian (Germany)
From the contents of the article, Mr. Cohen is obviously an internationalist who advocates an integrated United States of Europe with free flow of people, a common currency, common legal system and courts, and a centralized government. The EU has all of these things, the only thing lacking is a unified European Army.

The problem is Mr. Cohen does not accept nor does he take any arguments seriously, that oppose the creation of a European super state. The European Union was originally sold to the people as a free trade agreement. This free trade agreement has been successively expanded with the intent to create a super state without the social legitimacy that such a state would require. In Germany, European Unity is a political pillar for all of the major parties, SPD, CDU/CSU, Green, FDP, etc. But not one party has ever gone to the people with a solid argument about what a unified european State would be or mean. They prefer to avoid the debate with simple platitudes about "enhanced european integration" as the answer to most problems. In Germany, any debate is discouraged because of fears that the people might "chose incorrectly" or that "it's too complicated" for the public. I think something similar has been unfolding in Britain for the past 30 years. Now it's the people's turn to have their say. We should support and respect whatever the British people decide and not punish them for "deciding incorrectly."
Purplepatriot (Denver)
The fear and anger that fuels the Brexit sentiment as well as transatlantic contempt for multi-national alliances and institutions, and drives support for people like LaPenne and Trump, is a result of the failure of the political class in the EU and USA to recognize the extreme duress their economic policies have inflicted on many of the non-rich who see their comfort and security slipping away, even as new waves of immigrants are permitted entry and the rich continue to get richer. Until the political class addresses both income inequality and diminished opportunity for the non-rich, the anger will not subside - and many unthinkable things will become possible.
george (coastline)
Roger listened to Kissinger? Where was the old man when GW was ginning up support for the Iraq invasion ? Taking a nap maybe? Isn't it a ittle late for the sage of realpolitik, who sold weapons to both Iran and Iraq, to renter the foreign policy discussion?
NYT Reader (Massachusetts)
Maybe I've missed it, but I haven't seen any serious mainstream supporters of Brexit also champion leaving NATO.

Just as with the euro, the EU as currently constructed makes no sense. People were sold the idea that they could have all the benefits of tighter integration with none of the drawbacks of loss of sovereignty. Not possible. It either needs to go one way or the other in terms of tighter bonds or looser. And few British are eager to give up even more sovereignty to Brussels.

Many British recall the dire warnings of what would happen if they failed to join the Euorzone. Given that, it can be hard to take many of these new warnings seriously.
Jim Kay (Taipei, Taiwan)
Over time I am seeing Roger Cohen become less and less sensible!

Consider this: "But the unimaginable must be taken seriously if it is to be averted. The Soviet Union proved vulnerable to being unloved. A season of anger is upon the West."

We should celebrate the Soviet Union being unloved! It NEVER deserved any love from anyone. It was nothing more than Stalin's dictatorship imposed from without!

What can you be thinking, Mr. Cohen?
Bejay (Williamsburg VA)
Uh, what are you thinking, Mr. Kay? Saying that forces that contributed to the collapse of the USSR could do the same to the EU is hardly a statement in praise of the USSR.

If I were to say: "A nun of my acquaintance, someone I think of as a very strong person, is suffering from chronic depression, and I am worried about her -- because another person with whom I am acquainted who suffered chronic depression killed himself even though he was a very strong person -- in fact a gangster." Would you then reply, "We should celebrate the suicide of a gangster! Good riddance!" Non sequitur.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
Cohen's basic fear here is that the self-destruction of the Soviet Union could happen again, to the EU. His fear is heightened because he finds inexplicable what happened to the Soviets.

He adds to that the idea that US politics is inexplicable to the rest of the world. He does not mention that he can't explain US politics himself.

Actually, the problem in all of it is Cohen's failure to accept the explanation of any of it.

It is all economic.

The Soviet Union's demise was predicted in Soviet War College studies, which emphasized that its economic system was incapable of adopting the modern world in ways fundamental and unavoidable. It could not handle photocopy machines or typewriters, when the world was transitioning to computers and the internet as its basic mode. Economic failure destroyed the place, contra Cohen's words here, "No economic implosion swallowed it." The kleptocrats turned oligarchs from grabbing up the pieces of the implosion only set the seal on what had happened.

The EU problem is fundamentally economic too. It started as an economic union, and it is failing as one. It is more than a north/south fracture. It is flying apart. And the north is not just "liberal," the south not "statist." The north is socialist, which works. The south is corrupt oligarchs, which does not work. The US is sliding into that southern pattern.

The US makes no sense to them because it had the power to abandon sense. There was no check on self indulgence, and so it ran wild.
Policarpa Salavarrieta (Bogotá, Colombia)
Señor Roger,

Your article is thought-provoking. However the possible decline of the EU and the collapse of USSR are not similar cases. The EU is an effort by 28 nations to achieve regional integration and to forge a common purpose, while also respecting sovereignty and cultural difference. The USSR forcefully dominated other nations and cultures. In hindsight, it is not surprising that the USSR suffered the fate of other empires, from the Ottomans to the Romans.

What was unimaginable is the success of the European Union. The EU was able to develop a common foreign policy, encourage the free movement of peoples and goods across a continent, and promote well-being and democratic participation throughout.

Many in Latin America and the Caribbean have aspired to achieve regional integration since the days of Simón Bolívar. The collapse of the European project would not only be a tragedy for Europe, it would be a blow to the idea of regional integration everywhere.

The European Union's achievements thus need to be preserved and strengthened, with more democracy and transparency. We in Latin America do not want to replicate the EU, but we do seek greater unity. (See Simón Bolivar's "Letter from Jamaica," a call for unity from someone who in his time was a major Conservative thinker). http://faculty.smu.edu/bakewell/bakewell/texts/jamaica-letter.html

The failure of the EU would be a blow to Latin America's dream of regional integration. And this is unthinkable!
Sergei (AZ)
You write about USSR: “No economic implosion swallowed it”.
The Soviet Union was bankrupted by 70% drop in crud oil prices from 1980 (beginning of the war in Afghanistan) to 1991.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
The Soviets were not dependent on selling oil the way the Russians later are. They just didn't sell that much of it on the world market.

It's economy failed from "internal contradictions" in one of the few communist explanations of reality that proved true.
An Observer (Europe)
I don't think that the Soviet Union imploded due to any drop in global oil prices. The Soviet Union did not participate in the global economy, in the way that Russia does today. It had its own Soviet economic sphere quite apart from that of the West and the rest.
The Soviet implosion seems to have been primarily a political one, although abetted by a steady, decades-long economic decline.
joe cantona (Newpaltz)
EU policies work well for some but not for others and the latter is growing. The agitation and resentment we see across the EU is not dissimilar to what is going on in the US. People see a officials in cahoots with corporations and a system that is rigged and no longer works for them. Does anyone really expect struggling folks to care about Wiemar Germany or the Kissinger Prize? The sanctimonious blabbing about the unraveling of the EU should be heard by the elite. Only the elite.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
EU policies no longer work well for anyone, in their own estimation. The dissatisfaction is quite general. That is the political reality, even if it is exaggerated. The EU never "worked" in the sense of perfection for anyone, it was a compromise. Now the compromises cut to much, and no new compromises are being worked out. Drift is the rule, when creative new compromise is the need.
Mytwocents (New York)
The only people who like the EU are the EU bureaucrats, the pan EU corporations who have gained monopolies on various industries, and all the Muslims, Indians, and Africans who want to immigrate there and take advantage of a safety net paid by the hard work and taxes of the natives.
Gre (Italy)
I like UE, please don't speak for all Europeans. A lot of us think is flawed but also a great thing
BritishEUvictim (C.Europe)
"Realpolitik and idealism meet in the unity of Europe. The unthinkable, on both sides of the Atlantic, must be resisted before it is too late."

They have been trying thatr for a number of years now and have failed.

So how do you intend to resist "the unthinkable"?
follow the money (Connecticut)
The main problem here is the massive unemployment in the world today. There are 1,500,000,000 people with out permanent employment. Of course they migrate.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
Those unemployed people were always unemployed. They existed by near-subsistence agriculture. It is destruction of that lifestyle by globalized cheap agricultural production that has turned them out into the labor market.

As they are turned out, they work cheap and so take work that had been done elsewhere by people already part of the system, spreading the unemployment across societies. Allowing that is a choice, called "globalization" and pretended to be inevitable.

The terms chosen have aggravated it for the societies that had been more advanced, aggravated it in ways that benefited only a few, but benefited them immensely.
Che Beauchard (Lower East Side)
The EU came into being as a vehicle for promoting corporate capitalism. Let it wither on the vine. That Mr. Corbyn and Labour are not in favor of leaving is disappointing. As to NATO, it also should go into history's dustbin as its reason for being was the existence of the cold war, which died 26 years ago. Enough imperialism and enough capitalism already. Let them wither.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
The EU did promote corporate capitalism.

It also eliminated the militarized, confrontational nationalism that corporate capitalism had manipulated into a century of wars. The European Coal and Steel Community that started it ended the wars between France and Germany, and that peace effect was a primary vision of the men who did that deal.

European corporate capitalism is different from US corporate capitalism. It is more monopolistic, but it is also more in check from government. Neither monopoly nor check are complete, but it is more of both than the US. The US is trending to the monopoly without the checks on it.

NATO had three purposes, not just facing down the Soviets. The other two purposes continue, to keep the US in the European power balance as a check on militarized nationalism, and to keep the Germans contained from creating and exploiting a militarized nationalism again. "To keep the Russians out, the US in, and the Germans down."

The costs to the US of doing this are way down. US military involvement in NATO is limited to using it as a forward base for other US adventures. There are very few actual US combat formations there anymore. They went home or just demobilized.

The Germans have discovered, like the Japanese, that the militarized nationalism solution was just false. They have a better way. This is not a sacrifice for them, nor seen as one. Only the US urges them to re-militarize, and only so the US can use them as auxiliaries in its other wars.
Pete (West Hartford)
Being anti-NATO, you obviously have no problem with Russian imperialism.
David U'Prichard (Philadelphia)
As a transplanted Scot, I see Brexit as a peculiarly English disease. In reaction to their overbearing neighbors to the south, Scots have over many centuries sought refuge with Continental friends (especially the French) and in Continental ideas. It's a lot easier for a small country like Scotland or Ireland to envision itself within a wider European community, than an ex-Imperial power like England.

I know from my parents that in 1945 Europe was a ravaged catastrophe. Schuman, Monnet, De Gasperi and Adenauer were the giants from France, Italy and Germany who resolved to build a healing continental structure that could bear the burden of "never again". And so it has been for well over 60 years. I must believe that "Europe" will survive.
Philip (London)
Scots played a full and active role in the British Empire. Scotland is the country riven with anti-catholic, anti- Irish sectarianism, not England. The lead protagonist for the 'Leave' campaign is Michael Gove; a Scot. You had your opportunity to leave your 'over bearing neighbour to the south', but chose not to. Are we not oppressing you enough?
DAVID (MIAMI BEACH, FL.)
This a terrible overreaction to a possible BREXIT. I highly recommend viewing the movie BREXIT on you tube. It offers a counter opinion to this article.
EssDee (CA)
Europeans have experienced the effects of national sovereignty being subordinated to a superior political entity, and they don't like it one bit. No surprise. The only reason people put up with the UN is that it has no power.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
"Ever closer union" envisioned creating a European sovereignty. It was the same model that created Germany from trade communities among the multitude of German states of the early 19th Century, and that defines the Swiss cantons as a nation, as examples.

It was and could again be possible to just keep it as a trade arrangement among sovereigns. The Coal and Steel Community and later Common Market did not necessarily have to become this version of European Union. The leaders just wanted it to become this.
Guido (uk)
I live in UK, I've watched several debates about the referendum.
British membership to EU appears very positive, from the political, economic, cultural point of view. However, a part of the population is bitter and angry, after many years of austerity imposed by the government. The leaders of Brexit are blaming immigrants for their economic issues, and using them as scapegoat. They spread all kind of lies, to discredit EU and its institutions.
It's the same old story: the economy is bad, and they blame "the bloody foreigners", even if they are a positive contribution to the economy. Nonetheless, I hope that the majority of Britain will remain rational, and vote to remain in EU.
The American Dream (San Francisco)
Europe's rejuvenation is to be ushered in by the citizens in Europe, no matter how amateurish European top representatives are managing European affairs (such as the challenge through refugees). The vote of the frustrated and upset is not a reason to give up the European idea as such.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
The refugee problem is an artifact of the wars that drive them out of their homes. Just end those wars.

Don't say those are "their wars" as if we had nothing to do with those wars starting or those wars continuing. The Syrian War for example stalled repeatedly in its early days from lack of Western supply of money and weapons. We "fixed" that, and now complain about what happens when a the war we started destroys the society we wanted to destroy.
Joseph John Amato (New York N. Y.)
June 10, 2016

Rich is freedom for sharing transcendence of ethnicity or race; for in our global and modern world the best will be in union with the writ of justice towards balance the matters of affairs of all with judgement for fair living well - yes space and time is both in legalities and in the soul - heart of pursuit of happiness without fear or negation of tranquility.
Lorem Ipsum (DFW, TX)
If the bureaucracy in Brussels is what sets teeth on edge, then why not a Bruxit?
Mytwocents (New York)
Mr. Cohen, your lack of nuance and topical historical knowledge is laughable. Putin is not trying to conquer the Baltic states, nor Europe at large, Here is what he is trying to do. (I hope 60 mins producers read this too because they failed to ask Putin the right questions):

During and after WWII when USSR annexed many non Russian republics, they mixed and matched Russian territories to these new states in order to force and speed up assimilation. For example, when Russia took half of the Moldova province from Romania in 1940 following a dramatic 24 hour ultimatum, they didn't stop there. They cut the north tip of Moldova and give it to Russia, annexed Transmistria, which was a sliver of Russian territory, to its east (now they are tying to get it back), and gave Ukraine the south tip of Moldova, the exit to the black sea coast. They mixed and matched like this many republics and they are now trying to retrieve the Russian territories annexed to various provinces by themselves.

It's a nuisance for the affected countries, but not a European threat that would justify UK's stay in the EU.

EU has to be re-thought, it has grown too much, and it has highjacked the immigration policies from nation states. It's too bureaucratic. UK is good to go! I know the US government want an ally in the EU, but for the Brits, if they want to preserve their national identity an exit is mandatory.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
First they quite deliberately made it impossible to separate, then they failed and separated anyway. The problems they so deliberately created are every bit as troublesome as intended.
BritishEUvictim (C.Europe)
"at least one leader of the “Brexit” campaign has contemptibly compared the Union’s designs to Hitler’s"

He was absolutely right and telling the truth is not contemptible.

We were Brits were promised a referendum on a new constitution.

When "they" realised that we were going to reject it they changed the name of the horrible thing to "Lisbon Treeaty" and rammed it down our throats anyway.

Now that was contemptible.

Did Roger Cohen complain about that at the time or since?

One does not know but one suspects not.

The imposition of the Lisbon Treaty was just as arrogant and undemocratic as Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovakia.

Many people throughout the "EU" compare it to the Third Reich or the USSR. Many call it the EUSSR.

The "EU" is destroying Europe.

To stop it freom destroying Europe, we need to destroy the "EU" by non-violent means.
Paul A Myers (Corona del Mar CA)
Mr Cohen is entirely too dire in his Cassandra-like warnings.

Predictwise has this morning the probability of the Remain vote winning at 71%, which suggests it is not "too close to call." (Hillary Clinton won California by about 13% despite a bunch of "too close to call" polls in the days leading up to the election.)

If the UK leaves, it is quite possible that Germany will lead a stronger and more coherent EU built around the eurozone economies and an outer ring of other non-euro countries in a two-speed Europe. This is quite likely to be a stronger and more stable configuration of European state power. The current EU model has grown too big and flabby based on the untested thesis that more and bigger is always better.

Maybe De Gaulle was correct from the beginning. The UK was not part of Europe.
BritishEUvictim (C.Europe)
"and that Britain will remain where it belongs: in Europe."

The "EU" is not Europe.

I resent the theft of the word "Europe".

The "EU" insults me every day by describing itself as Europe and calling me a "Citizen of Europe."

If we don't manage to escape on this occassion, we will not give up.

We will continue to tell the truth about the "EU"

Too little of that truth gets out or is spread widely enough.

On the Internet, many other Brits have agreed with me that we will continuie to fight The Monster even if we lose on this occassion.
Daedalus (Rochester, NY)
How is it that Mr. Cohen can be in Germany, of all places, and not see the intrusive rule-making and forced obedience to other people's standards around him? Germany, with all its petty interference in the everyday lives of ordinary people, is the capital of the bureaucratic nightmare that is the EU. Brussels is just a front.
N.B. (Raymond)
the foundations born from rubble of Berlin are trembling..old dying,the new inchoate to decipher

today's 2nd review of the Master and the Margarita by first things Peter Leihart

Bulgakov's devil, Woland, has a different task. He's come as a destroyer, and he wreaks massive destruction. But the world he destroys is an enemy to life: “by destroying the facile skepticism and self-satisfied inertia which Berlioz so fully represents, the devil brings to life other qualities: the marvelous and the dynamic, which until then lay totally dormant. Furthermore, throughout the novel, in all the varied activities of the devils in Moscow, the same end is served. The chaos which they rain down on the many pompous and privileged mediocrities reveals the underlying deadness of their way of life. . . . By making a shambles of this stultified world, the devils liberate it from the deadening bonds of probability, rationality, and privilege, and bring to life a marvelous world guided by spirits—colorful, funny, and totally unpredictable.”
Erik (Boston)
If Tony Blair was not W Bush’s poodle, then the immigration flood would not have happened and the EU would be in better shape.
BritishEUvictim (C.Europe)
"Europe is increasingly unloved, its miracle too dull to be appreciated."

It is anything but a miracle.

Peace in the "EU"-countries is wrongly attributed to the "EU". There are other reasons: The Soviet threat, the prescence of the Americans, the referendum in the Saarland and many more.

Unemployment is very high, especially in the Eurozone and there especially in countries at the edge of it. So the Euro is destructive rubbish.

Health care has diminished in many "EU" -countries most especially in Greece but even in Austria.

Austerity is diminishing the quality of life here in Germany.

The Schengen Zone is a disaster and a disgrace. It allows terrorists, parasites and other criminals to move too freely. It is in large part to blame for the refugee crisis.

The "EU"s supreme court reportedly ignores the law and ignores normal judicial procedure (Die Welt 12/12/2012)

Defence arrangements have been severely diminished due to austerity.

There is very little that can truthfully be called good about it.

The people who have mismanaged almost everything in the "EU" want a "European Army"

Why should we give those useless people an army?

Helmut Schmidt, in conversation with Die Zeit called for a putsch. I cannot remember any "EU"-supporter complaining about that.

So the whole thing could turn into a pan-"EU" police state with some "EU"-Gadaffi "in charge"
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
The Schengen Zone does have costs. It also has advantages. They need to be seen in balance. Seeing only one side is deceptive.
An Observer (Europe)
What a mishmash of rubbish, worthy of the English tabloids!
FSMLives! (NYC)
'...Berlin is a monument to the triumph of liberty...'

How about Cologne? Is that city also 'a monument to the triumph of liberty'?

The 1%, which includes politicians, refuses to listen to the people who believe that only reason the elite supports open borders is they personally benefit from cheap labor, while being immune to the downside.
AE (France)
I am quite pessimistic. Internet and social media have obliterated time and space for the millennial generation, rendering them totally incapable of grasping WHY and HOW we got where we are today. With the cult of 'presentism', history is just a lot of old stories about dead folks and extinct nation-states who have absolutely no relevance to the collective consciousness of the present today. Hence most Westerners' increasing political complacency : I firmly believe that they would choose Trump or Le Pen even if their ascension to the executive position in the US or France would probably weaken democratic values we take for granted. As long as there is food on the table and infotainment on the net, all is well for most people.
Irene Elizabeth Brown (United Kingdom)
The purpose of the European project from the beginning has been the creation of a European super- state and the obliteration of the nation state . It was falsely sold to the British people in the 1970s as a ' Common Market' , simply a trading agreement between a handful of European countries . Margaret Thatcher was ousted from power because of her ' Bruges ' speech on 20th September 1988. In this speech she said : " Working closely together does not require power to be centralised in Brussels or decisions to be taken by an appointed bureaucracy "." We have not successfully rolled back the frontiers of state in Britain , only to see them re- imposed at a European level with a European super - power exercising a new dominance from Brussels ." To try to suppress nationhood and concentrate power at the centre of a European conglomerate would be highly damaging ."It is true that Winston Churchill in 1948 at the Congress of Europe in the Hague did say the following : " Our long term interests lay in the larger sovereignty that European unity would bring ." However, in May 1953 when addressing the House of Commons House of Commons he said " " We have our own dream and our own task . We are with Europe but not of it . We are linked but not combined. We are interested and associated but not absorbed . If Britain must choose between Europe and the open sea , she must always choose the open sea . "
tennvol30736 (GA)
Europe is a confederation of States. We learned in the 18th Century with the Articles of Confederation the structure is unworkable. However, our path may be disintegration as well. UNITED WE STAND.
GRW (Melbourne, Australia)
I agree with you entirely Roger regarding the Brexit issue. I sincerely hope the British people vote to remain in the EU. On the fall of the USSR: why was NATO not consequently disbanded therefore? It's retention and expansion could at least be seen to legitimise Russian hostility towards Europe. The smart thing to do - if retention and expansion of it was universally considered appropriate - would have been to invite Russia to join it. It it refused then the rationale for keeping and expanding it would have been supplied. Too bad no-one thought of this.
Ivan Goldman (Los Angeles)
Mr. Cohen celebrates NATO's defense of Estonia without stopping to question whether it's really such a bright idea to threaten nuclear destruction in order to "keep" these fragments of the old Soviet empire within the Western sphere of influence. When NATO expanded east under Bill Clinton & Bush Jr. there was little attention paid to the possible consequences. It was a good idea if you want to build a bigger empire, but is that's a foolish Napoleonic mission that could get a lot of folks killed. What's Estonia done for us lately?
skd (SLO, California)
Since the Eurozone – currency union without fiscal union – cannot collapse without causing massive disruption worldwide, the EU will have to go first.

Ironic, isn't it?
KL (MN)
I've a dear, old friend in England who is worried. She has paid into the National Health system her entire life. Ready to retire, she's very concerned as she ages, that she and her husband will have great difficulty receiving the healthcare due to them. Mainly because of the fact that the system is all clogged up with foreigners first in line. There is medical 'tourism' in the EU and they all go to where there's the best care. What is the average citizen to do in these cases Roger? As my friend would say, 'It's all in tatters'.
bern (La La Land)
That would be a good start. Then, countries would not have to take in terrorists. However, the Caliphate will take over Europe before they will get their act together. Hopefully, the Britons will avoid this.
Jonathan E. Grant (Silver Spring, Md.)
Trump is right. If Europe refuses to pay for its own defense, why should we? I am tired of the U.S. standing for Uncle Sucker. Let us pull out of NATO and quit saber rattling against an enemy (the USSR) which no longer exists. We were the first to violate our agreements with the New Russia by expanding NATO to Eastern Europe.

I bet it kills so many Democrats here to acknowledge that Trump is right.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
Europe has all the defense it needs. Little of that is any longer US forces there. What the US has there is bases and headquarters that it uses for wars elsewhere.

What it won't pay for it auxiliaries to be used by the US in its adventures far outside Europe.
Jim Hugenschmidt (Asheville NC)
The linchpin of the EU is the myriad economic benefits that accrue. These are both among the nations and as an entity in global commerce.

The biggest ancillary benefit is that wars seldom occur without a significant economic cause. Politically and economically the EU carries weight that no individual European country can approach.

The potential tragedy of Brexit is that if the EU collapses, the resulting economic inefficiencies will be akin to abandoning computers and going back to adding machines and 3x5 cards. Global economic clout will be irretrievably lost, same with military strength. Add the political and economic restructuring, creating new diplomatic relationships, and the destructive social impacts, and a steady rise in conflicts is inevitable. Witness Russia/Ukraine/Crimea.

Issues such as immigration are, at bottom, temporary. If the EU dissolves, there will be no reversal of the process. Where will it lead? Any benefits of Brexit to member countries would appear to be short term and small beer.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
No military strength will be lost.

They never created an EU military strength.

Meanwhile, the national sovereign military strengths within it withered into tiny, expensive, inefficient showpieces.

What they once had has already been lost. Brexit is unlikely to bring that back, and we ought not to wish for it either, since internal European wars came with that.
CL (Paris)
The foreign policy elite, of which you are a part Mr. Cohen, has been wrong about international trends and directions for half a century. It's time for you all to pack your bags and move on. A page is turning and your cohort will not be a part of the new era of people power and a return to state sovereignty.
Rudolf (New York)
The EU is dying from the inside out like a terrible cancer but also from the outside in like being divvied up already by opportunistic family members.
The inside is the anger and frustration of citizens of every self respecting European country (primarily all of Western Europe). They feel their creativity, skills, gut-feelings, and historical foundations, all different from country-to-country, are all equally chained to a sinking ship - they are all slowly but surely drowning.
The outside dangers are indeed Russia, undermining recovery strictly for selfish jealous reasons, but also, and much more dangerous, Turkey with its 80 million people expecting a free pass into Europe or else - Turkey's full force blackmailing the EU by taking over the Middle East migrant crisis will have a permanent impact on the stability of Europe.
Whether the UK decides to stay with a United Europe or become fully independent is really not relevant anymore - it is the same as a dying patient being told by the doctor to decide whether he wants a haircut or not.
Europe is on an accelerated down-hill slope close to reaching a ravine and indeed will become a guaranteed disaster; considering that it has more than 400 million people this not good news.
The only good thing that will be left is Beethoven's 9th "Alle Menschen werden Bruder."
The American Dream (San Francisco)
Rudolf - your metapher of the 'sinking ship' is misplaced because operations of each ship requires strong guidance. A captain has to motivate the crew, resp. vice versa, etc. Exactly that is the principle pf the European idea. Well, yes, we Europeans have to lament serious shortcomings within the script for those operations. Wisely interpreted , the shortcomings are to be viewed as motor of change and permanent improvement. Fair enough!?
Dennis (NY)
This article is a perfect example of Godwin's Law!
JimB (Richmond Va)
If the unthinkable can be thought
If the unspeakable can be said
How far behind is new reality?
Vincent (Tagliano)
Islam, Mr. Cohen, you forgot to mention Europe's love of Islam.
Omar Ibrahim (Amman, Jordan)
The real "unthinkable" Cohen dares not broach is the increasing number of Arabs and Muslims in Western Europe and the political influence that will go with it
The issue is of particular sensitivity now that many Europeans has suddenly discovered that they have been both brain washed and blackmailed into allying themselves with a bankrupted cause they no longer believe in, Israel/Zionism,and the coincidental present relatively massive influs of Arabs and Moslems into Europe.
Shamon Perez , ex PM of Israel and one of its founders, opined in a low key interview that the persistent night mare that haunts him is: the progressive icrease of Arabs and Moslems in W Europe and the inevitable political influence that will go with it, eventually neutralizing Jewis/Israeli influence !
It is not only that many Euopeans are disillusioned with Israel but that some major American political figures have shown enough fearlessness of the presumed Jewish/Israeli/Zionist influence over USA policies and strategies .
Both the USA and Western Europe will eventually find out that they have been embroiled in a long term war that affects neither their interests nor their security and brainwashed into accepting the rediculous assumption that Arabs and Moslems are their enemy.
Geopolitics , common sense and a more patriotic outlook will carry the day .....especially now that many of their saner statsmen have started to regret the American/W European role in supplanting Palestine by Israel!
Wallinger (California)
Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has just slammed the door on Britain retaining access to the single market if it votes to the leave the European Union. Under the existing treaties the parties are required to play nice if a country decides it wants to leave the EU. If the Germans start to behave in a high-handed manner then NATO could quickly dissolve. Why would Britain risk blood and treasure to protect a hostile Europe from Putin or anybody else?
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
"Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has just slammed the door"

The French just said the same thing. In fact, the French were first to say it.
John R. (Ardmore, PA)
Another NY Times editorial writer who does more than opine; Roger Cohen takes a stand and his voice is invaluable.
j. von hettlingen (switzerland)
Roger Cohen points out that the Soviet Union "vanished from the map" in 1991, only to see "the beginning of the end of the European Union a qarter-century later, following Brexit - much to Putin's delight, who would see the"disintegration" as a "sweet revenge" for the demise of his Soviet Russia. Indeed Putin begrudges the success of the EU and NATO.
But would Brexit signal an end of the EU? I doubt it. If we follow the history of the Roman Empire, it was divided into two halves in 285 CE with the Eastern Empire governed out of Byzantium (later Constantinople) and the Western Empire governed from Rome. The Empire grew so vast that it was no longer feasible to govern all the provinces from Rome. Should Britain remain, we might see similar development within the EU - like the split of the Roman Empire. Today Brussels might be able to do a better job holding the two halves of Union together than ancient Rome did. Most of all it should prevent meeting the same fate as the ancient empire.
FustelDeCoulanges (Berkeley, California)
The British, at least those disposed to Brexit, want to remain British – more particularly English or Scottish or Welsh. The French want to remain French, the Germans to remain German. Is that too much to ask? In what way is this entirely reasonable aspiration a "fantasy of drum-beating nationalist fragmentation"? The real disappearance of Europe is coming about precisely because European elites chose multiculturalism rather than assimilation.
Brian (Toronto)
Is a Californian not a Californian? A New Yorker not a new Yorker?

Why do people assume that a larger political cooperation necessitates the loss of identity?

However, is it not true that absent a larger political structure, states tend to war on one another with regularity? Will an Englishman be more of an Englishman if he is at war with a German?
JimLab (California)
The Scottish did not cease to exist after their political unification with England.

Britain would still exist, with its own identity, in a European superstate.
Dan Weber (Anchorage, Alaska)
Yes, in fact, it is too much to ask. In the world being born, such tribalisms will become increasingly untenable and retrograde. They will gradually be attenuated and eventually be extinguished--as they always have been. (We don't even know the names of the peoples who inhabited Europe before classical times.) Europe's nationalities can recognize this trend, and cooperate with moderate versions of it, or else obstruct it, and suffer the likely unpleasant consequences: economic degradation, internal political tension and, not impossibly, external war.
Enobarbus37 (Tours, France)
"Absent NATO, Putin would already have devoured Estonia for post-Ukraine dessert."

What? Could you document that? Should you document that? I would say you should.
waldo (Canada)
This op-ed piece is all over the map, putting events in the wrong historical order, going off in all directions all the time - without making a coherent point.
Let me just pick out one gem:
"From Germany’s “zero hour” in 1945 there emerged in due course two institutions — NATO and the European Union — that together ushered Germany from its shame and Europe from its repetitive self-immolation. They cemented the United States as a European power. They fashioned European security and prosperity through unity."
Boy, isn't that a juicy bit.
For starters, there was no "Germany' to speak of between 1945 and 1949, only 4 occupation zones and a military-controlled civil administration. There was of course the Nuremberg trial, but no peace treaty was ever signed with the German State.
The anomaly of Berlin - deep inside the Soviet zone - itself having been divided into 4 sectors produced the 1948 embargo and the air lift, which to this day is heralded as a major humanitarian effort; in reality it was crass politicking, nothing more, with the US scoring propaganda points on a grand scale.
In 1949 the United States, looking for ways to make its European military presence permanent, created NATO; at the same time cut off the 3 Western zones and turned them into a Federal republic (also called West Germany).
As a response, the USSR created the GDR (or East Germany) in its own occupation zone.
Note the sequence.
Mel Farrell (New York)
The American political machine has been managing perception to such a degree, since the end of WW11, they themselves believe their own spin.

Americans do not want to experience "real" reality; they would rather bury their heads, deep in the sand, and leave the problem solving to whomever.

Here in the United States, most have acquiesced, and accepted the state of being which has been foisted on them, afraid to rock the boat.

Bernie Sanders was able to get approximately 13 million people excited, but with the mainstream media, the mouthpiece of the elites against him, he simply didn't stand a chance.

Apathy is nurtured, and growing in America, the hidden weapon they elites deployed decades ago, to keep attention diverted.

Americans these days are kept fat and content, provided with a modern-day version of "Bread and Circuses".
Doug (Chicago)
NATO can't exist in its current form unless the European nations step up spending. If NATO falls apart it is not because of the U.S. but because Europe decided it wasn't worth paying for. The interventionist wing led us to Iraq and is warming up the truck in Syria and Iran. I've had my fill thanks.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
The US NATO forces have shrunken down to about 60,000, few of them combat units. They are bases, used to support wars farther afield. Note for example the US moves its casualties through Germany as their first stop.

Europeans already pay for many of those US bases, as a subsidy of US forces there. They have done that for decades.

The vast US military machine cannot be blamed on Europe or NATO.
Dan Weber (Anchorage, Alaska)
There were also those--many of them--who insisted that the peace and stability of Europe depended completely on saving the ancien regime, or on reestablishing it once it was overthrown.
Talesofgenji (NY)
The average Brit had it with foreigners arriving en masse in their country. C'est tout.
Lorem Ipsum (DFW, TX)
"The average Brit had it with foreigners arriving en masse in their country."

Yes, yes, of course he has, but enough about 1066.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
"Yes, yes, of course he has, but enough about 1066."

Even before that. The very idea of Britain was created by Alfred the Great and contemporaries to confront the "Scourge of the Northmen" as still recited in the Book of Common Prayer.
Principia (St. Louis)
The European Union is the capitalist version of the Soviet Union.

Not that I oppose the idea generally, but let's face certain realities. The Union is an attempt by the financial leadership of European powers to be stronger, richer, and have more access to cheaper labor and larger markets without facing regulatory hurdles. But, the Union faces the same problems the Soviets did, as it attempts to bridge different cultures, languages, and perhaps most importantly, differing economic conditions.

Brexit didn't start this problem, the bank crimes of 2008 did, which led to a massive transfer of public wealth to the private sector, and now zero growth in the Union for eight years. Some have come to suspect -- as I do -- that the European financial sector exploited the Union to enrich themselves at the expense of the general public. No wonder the people -- the economic losers -- are rising up against the suspect legal Superstructure.

And don't forget about what the Union did to Greece -- turning it into a debtor's prison forcing them to pay off every penny-on-the-dollar of absurd loans made by large German and French banks who were trying to improperly produce private income on public leverage. The Union failed to regulate those banks, of course, and failed to protect the public. The Union allowed a catastrophic failure on their watch.

The Union proponents can hardly blame others.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
If you say that, you ought to also say that Czarist Russia was the same idea, and so was the Austro-Hungarian Empire, and so was the British Empire on a worldwide basis, which the French tried to emulate with their own Empire. It was the concept of Charlemagne and the Holy Roman Empire too.

None of it is new, and certainly not Soviet in origin.
ted (portland)
Kissinger, Powell and "liberal interventionist democracy", what a load of, well whatever. To paint Kissinger as anything but a neo con is totally disengenuous(or have you forgotten his, Ronnie's, and Milton Friedmans antics in Chile and other neighbors to our South who suffered massively from our "democratic intervention") and you might update the new players to Nuland and Kagan as you have brought up The Ukraine and Putin. You might even try facts occassionally like our and Israels involvement in the coup that led to the current crisis in the Ukraine now run by oligarchs posing as scrappy little freedom fighters, better yet read the transcript between Victoria Nuland and her counter part where she says "fu-- the E.U.", an indication of where our foreign policy is going under Clinton. Also point out the that Afganistan was the money pit along with Gorbovhovs' allowing the oligarchs to rob Russia blind that brought down the Soviet Union as well as the inconvenient fact that the immigration crisis unfolding in Europe is due to our War of choice in Iraq which lit the fire in the M.E. To try to assign blame on this or the brexit issue on anyone but the neo cons is pure spin. Roger your narrative was once so balanced, what happened?
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
Kissinger was pre-neocon.

Powell was the military professionals reluctant to be used by neocons, opposed by them for his rejection of their ambitions, as when Sec of State Albright infuriated him with her, "What's the point of having this superb military you're always talking about if we can't use it?" Note that "Albright was an early opponent of the Powell doctrine that the United States should restrict its military interventions."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/govt/admin/stories/albrigh...

Neocons must have been delighted to use and destroy Powell in one stroke at the UN in his speech about their Iraq War project full of their lies.

No, the neocons are a different, more recent phenomenon. They are still very dangerous, and their danger is located today in the Hillary campaign.
Kilroy (Jersey City NJ)
Actually the U.S.S.R. did suffer an economic implosion. It didn't make the evening news because it was slo-mo. The implosion evolved over decades of deficit financing.

When Gorbachev ascended to General Secretary, he took a look at the books, and gasped. The tank was empty. Reagan or no Reagan, the ruble was rubbish.

Old Soviet worker's joke: We pretend to work; they pretend to pay us.
rawebb (Little Rock, AR)
My economics instructor at Yale in 1962 told his class of Goldwater conservatives not to worry about the Soviet Union. He said that their economy would collapse because there was no way in their system to know what anything cost. That was prophetic, though I do not know if he thought it would take as long as it did.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
"The implosion evolved over decades of deficit financing."

Yes, it did implode its economy.

No, it was not deficit financing. That is an abuse of reality. They did not borrow and spend. They did not even have that sort of economy. That whole concept is a modern Western concern found in the "austerity" theories that are destroying the West today.
Mel Farrell (New York)
Many in Europe, and especially in England are realizing that the Union was always about unity of the corporatists in all European nations, a coming together of the masters of Europe, completing control of the European labor force, regulating everything, ending the idea of sovereignty and nationalism, all for the financial benefit of these masters of the continent.

The ruling class in the United States is one force driving the remain side, helping to bring about a centralized one world rule, rule of the masses by an international group of Plutocrats, centralized control of the wealth of the planet, subjugation of the people, reducing them to eternal economic slavery.

At least 4 decades in the making, the resultant inequality is the thing the elites did not concern themselves with; blinded by their avarice, they allowed the one thing that would destroy their efforts, to come to the fore.

Change is coming in Europe, and here in the United States, the change these masters of mankind dread; an informed people are realizing the real power was always in their hands.
Jane (Austin)
Cohen is a member of the New World Order, wanting a borderless world. The Brexit would put a damper on the NWO folks. They think that nationalism and country pride causes wars and that the only way to maintain peace is to be one big happy world. The problem is that is not in keeping with the nature of man.
Cayley (Southern CA)
Actually Roger, the USSR was undergoing economic implosion, slowly, but steadily, a process underway for 20 years before the end of the USSR. The entire last decade of the Soviet empire consisted of fitful attempts to come to grips with, and halt this decline. The political implosion was derived from, driven by, the economic one.

The Soviet economist Grigorii Khanin showed what was happening in 1987, well ahead of the collapse. This phenomenon is cogently described in Ellman and Kontorovich's "The Destruction of the Soviet Economic System".
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
It was also a frequent subject of specialist US military journals, like the magazine Armor during the time of General Starry and the big US Army reforms. They quoted from Soviet defense college papers published openly.

It was not a surprise to those who looked.
manfred marcus (Bolivia)
Concur. Brexit would be a disaster for what the European Union's crown achievement means, inter-dependence, and peace and prosperity as a result. Those that may be ready to ignore a past of ignominy and unending wars, are likely those that are not cognizant of that history, nor the current benefits they take for granted, just because the reciprocity in responsibilities to the Union may be onerous at times, imperfect most of the time, and requiring active participation so their democratic values can be sustained. Britain's vote to leave the Union would have consequences, none of them to anybody's benefit...unless you like Putin's 'schadenfreude' when the beginning of the end favors opportunists and war
Rafael (Baldwin, NY)
One of the factors Mr. Cohen fails to address in a very convenient way, is the effect that the sudden, completely uncontrolled flooding of Europe by millions of unvetted Muslim "refuges" (the vast majority males of fighting age) while using the Syrian war as an excuse, has had on the populations and local economies of countries like Germany, Greece, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Norway, and England. This was caused by the incredibly moronic idea of the EU politicians, that the more "migrants" the better, and that they would "integrate" fully into the European culture and ways of life. They failed to take into account that, in reality, the integration onto Western culture hasn't worked as well in the Muslim community.

Merkel fueled this with her open invitation for "refugees" to go to Germany; ignoring German's feelings. The EU politicians, by covert agreement or sheer stupidity, have enabled the eventual conquest of Europe by failing to understand how Islam really works; treating it as just another "plain vanilla" religion; when in reality, in its most pure form, is a COMPLETE system that doesn't recognize the separation of church and state, the authority of Non-Believers over Muslims, the application of human law over Islamic law, and, who's ultimate goal is the eventual, complete domination of the World, by establishing Islam as the ONLY true religion. Islam itself has taught me that. Open border policies, without people having any say in it, are having a DIRE effect. Go Brexit!
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
"while using the Syrian war as an excuse"

This begs for "personal responsibility" thinking. The West facilitated those wars, funded them, armed them, did everything to kick them off and then expand them. Now it does not like the fallout, and says that is an "excuse."
Larry Lundgren (Sweden)
May I remind commenters some close to the top who see nothing but evil in the migration of desperate people, many of them born into Islam, that a great human being Muhammad Ali and his younger brother Rahman chose to become Muslims.

Muhammad Ali's messages and practices should become a model for the Clinton campaign and for all the Americans who write here displaying thoughts that are irreconcilable with the beliefs and actions of Muhammed Ali
FustelDeCoulanges (Berkeley, California)
Here are some of Ali's inspiring "messages":

“My enemies are white people, not Viet Congs or Chinese or Japanese.”
—1967 interview regarding the draft

“All Jews and gentiles are devils….Blacks are no devils….Everything black people doing wrong comes from (the white people—drinking, smoking, prostitution, homosexuality, stealing, gambling—it all comes from (the white people).”
—1969 interview with David Frost

“A black man should be killed if he’s messing with a white woman. And white men have always done that….And not just white men—black men, too. We will kill you, and the brothers who don’t kill you will get their behinds whipped and probably get killed themselves if they let it happen and don’t do nothin’ about it.”
—1975 interview with Playboy

“You know the entire power structure is Zionist. They control America; they control the world.”
—1980 interview with India Today
minh z (manhattan)
Interesting that Islam is also the religion that has a history of enslaving millions of Africans, and many in African countries they still discriminate against the black Africans compared to the Arab North Africans, even while both could be Muslims.

And many sectarian battles within Islam are fought over these types of rights - the right of the enlightened Muslims versus the ones who support things like honor killings, slaves, rape, killing gays, killing anyone who makes fun or or cartoons the Prophet, etc., etc.

What is your comment about that, Larry? Still believe they should become "a model for the Clinton campaign and all Americans?"
Larry Lundgren (Sweden)
@ myself - This comment would be more on topic at Muhammad Ali, The Political Poet by Henry Louis Gates but there is no comment section there. You might want to visit Gates OpEd.
David Gregory (Deep Red South)
Well, i do not know where exactly to start.

Having lived in Germany during the period before the fall of the Berlin Wall, it was predictable and the common people knew it. It was the politicians and so-called experts that missed the boat. What I saw and heard over coffee, beer and cigarettes (it was a different time) was very different from what I was fed from official sources and our media.

NATO reneged on promises it made to the USSR/Commonwealth of Independent States/Russia regarding NATO expansion. Western nations also reneged on treaty promises to Ukraine- whom they promised to defend in exchange for surrendering their nuclear weapons- by letting Putin grab Crimea. The west is an untrustworthy, toothless tiger and Putin knows it.

The EU is a failure precisely because a good idea has been morphed into force fed NeoLiberal Economic policy that nobody was promised or voted for. What is being done to Greece is scandalous.

The Schengen Zone has been undone by the vast slow motion invasion of Muslim people to the EU egged on by Angela Merkel who sees a new source of cheap labor, by the unassimilated millions of Muslim peoples ghettoized in France and elsewhere. The intelligentsia who again have ignored the power of culture are in denial of how a threat to national identity and culture has triggered a political backlash- Latvians do not want to be European, nor do the French or the British. And they rightly object to a rollback of the enlightenment for illegal migrants.
Vid Beldavs (Latvia)
Latvians do want to be Latvians who are Europeans. The EU idea makes sense. But the institutions that have been created by the EU lack the capacity to deal with the onslaught of unprecedented crises that hit at the same time. The EU did not create the civil war in Syria or the global economic crisis. Neither did the EU cause Putin to dismember Ukraine. These interlinked crises have flooded EU member states with refugees for which they lack capacity to absorb on short notice. Given that these crises intensify the EU could disintegrate. But, the EU has proven to be resilient. If the crises start to moderate the EU will prevail.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
"Western nations also reneged on treaty promises to Ukraine- whom they promised to defend in exchange for surrendering their nuclear weapons"

Neocon fantasy.

First, those were Soviet weapons the Ukrainians were unable to use or maintain. They did not even have the codes. They were just a hazard, toxic waste, not usable weapons for the Kiev government.

Second, nobody "promised to defend" Ukraine. They were very careful about that, because such a promise would have been an extension of NATO. Read the Memo, and the Budapest Memorandum was just a Memo. It "promises" NOTHING except to raise the issue at the UN. It has some bold empty talk, but no promises.

Neocons want to expand NATO, and they want to confront the Russians, and they want small regime change wars, and that includes regime change in Russia back to kleptocrats they can exploit as they did under Yeltsin. That is not in the best interests of anybody in the West except a few of our oligarchs who would profit off their oligarchs.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
"Latvians do want to be Latvians who are Europeans."

Some Latvians want that. About 60%, the ones who are not Russians.
Vin (Manhattan)
Cohen repeatedly - and unwittingly - illustrates why the EU is in trouble. It's an increasingly undemocratic institution whose function is to put in place the preferred policies of the elite. Witness the disdain heaped - by Cohen and others - on those who question the EU's usefulness, or its policies on refugees or mass migration. The European elite have a clear vision for what Europe looks like - a forced multiculturalism coupled with increasingly neo-liberal policies. If any citizen raises objections, they are tarred as backward looking bigots.

It's no wonder Europeans increasingly reject the EU.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
"an increasingly undemocratic institution whose function is to put in place the preferred policies of the elite"

Yes, it is being abused that way. However, it has more functions than that, and more potential. Those who founded it were thinking in bigger terms. It has been captured and exploited, but that is not all it was or could be.
Jonathan Krause (Oxford, UK)
I love when Americans cry for Britain to leave the EU. It is our currency, not yours, that will tank if Brexit goes forward. Our university system will lose £700 million in European funding each year, not yours. Our businesses will lose access to easy trade and connections with our biggest trading partner, yours won't. We will suddenly have to kick out millions of Europeans (or go through costly visa creation schemes) while at the same time welcoming back a million or two old age pensioners with nowhere to live when they are forced to return to Britain by their present home countries.

If Britons vote Brexit we will lose our status as a serious second-rate power and slip into the sort of pointless mediocrity that southern European states have long endured. Worst yet, the biggest Brexit fans (mostly in their 70s and older) won't have to live through any of it! Bloody infuriating!
Stephen Foster (Seattle)
The Scotland I grew up in was utterly monochromatic, so there was no way for me to know that racism was alive and well. The first wave of immigrants were Pakistanis, and "Paki-bashing" became a popular sport. When I introduced my American Jewish fiancee to my mother, mom took me aside to warn me about "those people." My reaction instead was to emigrate to America.

From 6000 miles away, I recently looked on in horror at the Scottish Independence vote, and will now do the same with the Brexit-vote. FRAGMENTATION IS A BAD IDEA in this day and age! If the Brexit vote goes through, I expect the Scots would refuse to go along. I suspect the Welsh and Ulsterites would agree, and England would be isolated with customs-guarded borders on all sides and bonded trucks barrelling through it without stopping. A simply ridiculous situation, made worse by the fact that it would weaken the EU.

To paraphrase Mr. Churchill: The EU is the worst form of European government, except for all the others. One doesn't need to think too far back to remember some of those others.
Michael Feely (San Diego)
We live in the age of "the sky is falling" journalism. Crying wolf won't sell newspapers, it must be screamed. Suggesting the new Hitlers and Stalins are lurking may be attention grabbing but it's silly. They were created by conditions in Germany and Russia that don't exist today. The United Kingdom, in its various iterations as England, The United Kingdom of England and Scotland, The United Kingdom of England, Scotland and Ireland and the United Kingdom of England Scotland and Northern Ireland has existed for 2000 years. It had been part of the EU for less than fifty years. It is not "unthinkable" that they may leave. Political groupings constantly break up and reform in new ways. Even a superficial knowledge of European history shows that change is the norm. The countries of Europe will survive, the UK will survive and the sky won't fall.
Colenso (Cairns)
As a homeless and footloose Cornishman, I have supported enthusiastically the concept of a united Europe for more than half a century. Reluctantly, I believe the time has now come, however, for the experiment to end.

In the process, I look forward also to the breakup of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and a return to a modern version of the Heptarchy, where the focus is on local autonomy and Pride in Parish and Concern for County trump 19th and 20th Century nationalism.

I say England for the English, Wales for the Welsh, Scotland for fhe Scots, and Cornwall for the Cornish. And, of course, Ireland for the Irish.
Brian (Toronto)
Should Chelsea separate from London? At what level of granularity are we sufficiently isolated from one another that we feel our identity is preserved? Every political structure is an amalgamation of smaller localities and it is precisely in their cooperation that all are made better. "Independence" simply allows people to stop cooperating and get back to the hard work of fighting wars.
GRW (Melbourne, Australia)
Socially and historically constructed identities all! Would you seek to unpick the influence of the Roman and Norman French conquests of Great Britain? Seek to determine among the English who is actually more an Angle, or a Saxon, or a Pict et al and have them isolated together in different parts of the island? Would you support the deportation of any of dominant Viking ancestry, or who are Jewish, let alone more recent arrivals from the Caribbean and the sub-continent? How does one unscramble an egg exactly?
Colenso (Cairns)
Brian, if you are familiar wirh the ghastly urban sprawl that blights most of the South East of England, where on the coast most villages and towns have completely lost their character in a continuous ribbon of concrete and tarmac between Hastings and Poole, then you might well want to see Chelsea part company from Westminster, the City of London separate from its surroundings, and Whitechapel and all the rest regain their local identity and character, with Greater London broken up into all its natural parts.

The bigger problem is that there are simply too many of us. We need to get the global population back down below one billion, and the population of the area that now constitutes the UK below ten million.

Humans are not meant to live in a vast anonymous, seething conglomerate. It goes against our nature. When all is said and done, we are a species of social ape, for whom the ties of family, the clan and the tribe give identity, succour and security.

The essence of communal life is not the nation but the village, which is the seat of the clan.

The best thing England had ever built were her monasteries, which the predatory Henry Tudor, upstart Welshman, destroyed in his squabbles with Rome. Monasteries provided social welfare the likes of which England has never seen again.
pieceofcake (not in Machu Picchu anymore)
Being in a 'Temple of Doom Mood' again?

Let me tell a secret - if European Politics and Politicians are in a Temple of Doom - that doesn't mean that Erasmus isn't working anymore -(or young and old Europeans exchanging all kind of positive vibes with each-other= - and for sure - that sometimes gets a bit chaotic -(as with some British Soccer Fans behaving poorly in Marseille) - BUT anywhoo the European vacation season is upon us -(for me Italy - Greece - Spain - and yes also Berlin) - Just don't hang with the Dinosaurs - Next time you're in Berlin go to the 'Guru' -(great Indian Food) and feel 'the Berlin'...
Cicero99 (Boston, Massachusetts)
What's "unthinkable" is Samantha Powers sharing the same stage as Henry Kissinger.
Dr. Svetistephen (New York City)
The Soviet imperium, indeed that of its entire empire across Eastern Europe, didn't collapse for no apparent reason. This is poetic hogwash. It was indeed economically imploding within, something any visitor to the FSU or any member of the Warsaw Pact could have predicted. Its collapse appeared to come out of the blue because the mindset of our political class, including the chattering classes, was so focused on counting Warsaw Pact tanks in anticipation of the communist juggernaut moving west that its satellites missed the most important non-event going on across the Evil Empire: any photo taken in the capital and larger cities of the Block would show millions of men and women walking around all day long rather than being at work. The worker's paradise produced full employment but no jobs. And while we continued to misread the Soviet Bloc, we failed to see the ascending trend: the population explosion across the Third World, including in Mexico, whose population had doubled in the previous 80 years. No implications were drawn from this non-event. Considering the US and Mexico have the longest border on earth between a Third World and First World economy, perhaps someone might have predicted the consequences. Roger Cohen's curious idea that events don't appear to have causes is, to be kind, nuts.
ejlabnet (London)
As British, I don't see point in EU. It is purely an American after-war invention. The Americans poured zillions of their green dollars to maintain that union. EU will never integrate neither politically nor culturally. We (British) on the hand should integrate within Anglo-Saxon sates of Canada, Australia and New Zealand by forming CANZUK.

And let Germany spent their money on economic failures such as Greece, Italy, France etc.
The American Dream (San Francisco)
ejlabinet - why isn't the UK applying to the United States of America as quasi - European harbinger of the Anglo - Saxon empire!?? You Brits are kicking around the idea of new empire glory in the 21st century, aren't you. That sort of (odd) ambition barely matches to the European idea.
An Observer (Europe)
The EU portrayed as an American invention? That is a perfect example of the willful ignorance perpetrated by the Brexit camp...
Syed Abbas (Dearborn MI)
Brexit is an Encore by the English within 100 years to prevent Germany and Russia and push them around. In 1914 the two were the fastest growing economies in the Europe. Anglo-French greed, with American connivance, plotted to prevent them from taking their rightful place. Result: 1914-45 carnage.

100 years later Corporate Capitalist West must begin to acknowledge that it all had been in vain. Germany has achieved mastery of Europe and the West, Russia of East Europe, de facto if not de jure.

Not only 120,000,000 dead could have been saved, but had Germany and Russia been consulted in the unwise 1917 English decision to create Israel, the ME would not have been in the unending bloody mess it is today.

The CCW over the last 300 years raped Africa with slavery, de-industrialized and de-populated India, pushed opium on China. Now that the BRICS are rising again not through the barrel of the gun but by sweat of their brow, in 2016 would the greedy CCW allow China et al to take their rightful place in the world, or have a 1914 Encore? Insanity is doing the same thing again and again and expecting different results.

Mastery over others is transitory, and a trust from the Lord. Playing god, a sin, has devastating results for others and ultimately for self in blowback that the West now rightfully fears in near future in shape of Jihadi terror.

Come on England. Even the Scots do not want you. Don't make life difficult for Europe. This time you will lose. Accept your place.
John Wilkins (Bradfordwoods, PA)
If I were voting in the June 23 referendum I would vote to get out. The UK should not be ruled by a bunch of unelected people in Gucci shoes in Brussels. The EU is some dream world they call ‘Europe’, which in reality, has turned into a disintegrating and dysfunctional amalgamation of Member States, devoid of their own national sovereignty and quite clearly not serving the interests of their citizens.
The anathema of this sort of direct responsibility and accountability is the European Union, which is cabal ruled by unelected officials who are not held accountable for their decisions, no matter how poor they turn out to be. The history of the Eurozone is one of policy failure with millions of people rendered unemployed, in poverty, or otherwise disadvantaged by the destructive decisions made by successive European Commission administrations. There was a good reason why the French President Charles de Gaulle resisted the development of supranational power blocks in Brussels and elsewhere. His preference for Inter-
R (Texas)
Hidden within the Viewpoint is a salient phrase-i.e. (American) liberal interventionist idealism. It has been the cornerstone of American foreign policy since 1950, and is found nowhere else on the planet. Again, the European Union comprises a region of 500M+ people, and a GDP equivalent to the US. It has more than enough manpower and financial resources to counter Russia (Populace: 143M), and most other external threats. NATO IS obsolete. The European Union was the "transition vehicle" for the Continent's self-security. Article 42 (7) of the EU Treaty provides for mutual defence. Article 222 further corroborates and bolsters the position. Assuming the disintegration of the European Union, America's significant postwar commitment to Western Europe has failed. The United States should take appropriate action. Notification, under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty should be implemented, and withdrawal from NATO should take place one year thereafter.
Steve (West Palm Beach)
Insightful column with important perspective, and well-focused comments following it. Here's my less-focused two cents' worth:

An African-American president and homosexual marriage in the USA were unthinkable not so very long ago. So was AIDS, and so was a successful treatment for it. It pays to have the vision to expect the unexpected, both good and bad. Countless unforeseeable events create historical outcomes. Communist China could become far more open and democratic over time as a result of economic advancement, less bridled global communications, and the presence of so much of the rest of the world's thinking inside its borders. Wouldn't this be good for the Chinese and American people?

As for NATO and the E.U., I see parallels in the controversies. Rather than obsolete, aren't they both in need of deep, structural readjustment? I understand that many British people feel that they are sacrificing too much on a personal basis to justify continued membership in the E.U. And am I the only person in the United States who agrees with both Barack Obama AND the despicable Donald Trump that wealthy NATO countries are "free riders?" So many Europeans I've known relish sniping at the dysfunctional education and health insurance systems of the U.S. I agree with their sniping 100%. The money we spend militarily babysitting their continent would be better invested in the well-being of the American people, including documented and undocumented immigrants.
Robert Bruce (Scotland)
It is outrageous for you to describe support for Brexit as "derangement". The USA would never agree to an arrangement like the EU. Why should Britain?

Your denigration of an ancient people wishing to protect their own freedom, traditions and identity is uttered in the tone of sneering contempt that could only come from a rootless cosmopolitan.
Steve (West Palm Beach)
Your description of Cohen as a ruthless cosmopolitan sounds anti-Semitic, just as it was in the USSR. As for the USA agreeing to an arrangement like the E.U., we've had it for 240 years. Read a book.
Woof (NY)
Isn't it ironic that the country that set up Nato subsequently destabilized it with its repeated invasion in the Mid East, generating waves of non integrationable refugees from Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria streaming into Europe ?
Vincent (Tagliano)
It is both ironic and tragic. That being said, Europe should do everything within its power to resist mass infiltration and subversion of its collective cultural and political identities.
Claus Gehner (Seattle, Munich)
The fact that Britain is a poorly integrated multicultural nation, which seems to be at the forefront of the Brexit debate, is a result of its imperial/colonial past. The current refugee crisis is only a poor excuse to vent the long simmering frustrations of the "Trumpian" part of the British polulation about the demise of the "good old days" - "Make Brtain Great Again".

The impact of the current refugees SHOULD be minimal in Britain, when compared to the large ex-colonial population already in Britain. The pro-Brexit campaign is based on the same xenophobic, racist instincts which is fueling the success of Trump in the US, the Afd in Germany, the Front National in France, the FPO in Austria, etc. These are new faces of Fascists, which are rearing their ugly heads again.

It is somewhat ironic that right now Germany seems to be the best bulwark against this renewed rise of Fascism. They have, at least at the social and moral levels, chosen the correct path by accepting large numbers of refugees and continuing to fight for even closer European unity. Whether it proves to be political sustainable is still an open question - I pray it is.

The British were on the verge of siding with Fascism in the 1930's before they stepped back from the brink. I hope the liberal, rational instincts will again prevail.
Michael S (Wappingers Falls, NY)
Only the US and Estonia have passed the 2% of GDP threshold that every NATO nation pledged to have as their goal for military expenditure. NATO only seems important to our allies if we foot the lion's share of the bill. We can't care more than our allies about European defence
Jonathan Krause (Oxford, UK)
"Only the US and Estonia have passed the 2% of GDP threshold that every NATO nation pledged to have as their goal for military expenditure."

Man that's horrible! .....because it isn't true. France and the UK are both still at or above 2% of GDP and many of the countries that aren't are just slightly below (1.8% or so).

NATO countries typically spend about what they need for defence....unless you're in the Baltic there are no conventional military threats to face in Europe. Our military expenditure reflects that.
andrew radzik (nesconset, ny)
Yes, we absolutely can, because it is wilful blindness to believe that weakening of European unity and solidity will not affect us and our interests. That fact completely justifies our continued support of NATO, even while we push for more balance in it's financing
Michael S (Wappingers Falls, NY)
@Johnathan Krause

According to a NATO report dated January 28, 2016 ("Defence Expenditures of NATO countries 2008-2015") in 2015 only the USA, Estonia, Greece, Poland and the UK spent 2% or more on defence (including but not limited to NATO) so it isn't a rosy figure or as you put it "man that is horrible"
WSF (Ann Arbor)
One of the most important reason for the Brits wanting to leave the EU is the lack of control of the border. Free movement across borders will permit more and more "undesirables" to come to the UK and that is something the Brits do not want. This issue alone is enough to influence the vote to leave th EU.

The polarization here in our own country is a harbinger of the future of the EU. There are just too many cultures, languages, and memories to integrate all these countries into a political union. It will break up eventually just as did the USSR for similar reasons. Just remember that the old USSR was comprised of many different cultures, languages and memories. The Russians were about to become a minority in their union. It was inevitable.
RT (Sao Paulo, Brazil)
Actually the UK did not sign up for the Schengen agreement and therefore does not have open borders with Europe. Nor do the United States and Mexico have open borders, but that doesn't seem to have prevented an immigration problem there either.
Red Lion (Europe)
The UK has the tightest border control in the EU -- being outside the Schengen Zone and being an island. And most of the immigration to the UK is from well outside Europe. Statistically, the parts of the country that are most paranoid about immigration are those with the lowest rates of it -- and those places are of course overwhelmingly pro-Brexit. Most EU immigrants to the UK come to work and are a help to the economy.

But Farage-ian / Trumpian isolationism and racism and the politics of fear are, sadly, the scourge of our time.
Flaminia (Los Angeles)
Well, this is certainly creative! The Soviet Union did not collapse because of ethnic fragmentation, though undoubtedly the forces of fragmentation blossomed once it did collapse. Until the end the Soviet Union's policies and planning was run from the Russian center in Moscow. The Soviet Union failed because of its long-term inability to keep pace with the first world West in terms of quality of life for its citizens. Eventually this quality of life gap became too large and down it went.
Anthony Whalen (New York)
Yes. The messy squalor of the immigration crisis must be distasteful and alarming to the British public. The UK is endowed with great natural resources and a gifted and industrious population. Its unique place in history as the mother of Parliaments and bastion of democracy could never be plausibly denied. It is truly a "demi-paradise". But in the light of modern communications and technology the world has become highly interdependent and together the sum of the European countries, with their shared culture and values, is greater than the individual parts. Xenophobia and ultra-nationalism are not mature responses to the complex challenges of today and are deeply irresponsible. They would inevitably expose Britain to a gathering storm which the borders of the continent could not possibly contain. The great leaders of the past would have little doubt of the proper present course: the Grand Alliance must stand and the peace of the world must be secure.
Jane (Austin)
Those pesky borders and ultra-nationalists. Tsk Tsk Tsk. Being part of a nation is so passe.
Till (Burlington, MA)
Mr. Cohen has disregarded healthy debate over mass immigration into Europe, in favor of some sort of murky 20th century apocalypticism.

Funny how that happens, when throughout 2015 Mr. Cohen was effusively warming us up to the many virtues of mass immigration and prattling on about the sacred duty all European countries have to embrace the migrants and repurpose the disaster for greater moral good.

A great deal of the Brexit debate is preoccupied with unmitigated and undemocratically determined mass migration (you can literally view many televised debates concerning just that: immigration); accordingly, many Brits would like to have a little more agency on the subject of mass migration.

Immigration is only mentioned once in this entire opinion piece, and it appears in reference to Trump's anti-immigration stance.

The "fantasies of drum-beating nationalist fragmentation" are only yours to own, because the surging right in Europe are merely asking for a future that involves the varied voices of the European people.

They don't want to be superfluous deindustrialized populations; they want to be French, Germans, or Brits.
Trauts (Sherbrooke)
Canadians too!
Bruce Higgins (San Diego)
All of this is an indication that fundamental change is needed. It is possible to survive, look at the US after the civil war, but change must come. Europe cannot be locked into an immovable bureaucracy, which is one of the complaints fueling the current strife. For Europe to become a vibrant self governing unit, they must reach some sort of conciseness, and that has proven impossible so far. You face the choice of the dinosaurs: Adapt or die.
Stephen J Johnston (Jacksonville Fl.)
Contemplate the economic effect of Britain walking away from the pound, and going full on with the Euro, and Brexit might not seem like such a bad idea. Think of this tune: Deutschland Deutschland uber alles!" Then resolve to never give up the sovereignty of ones own currency.

Truth is, economists are paid by multinationals who like structural reform(low wages), and the UK is now flooded with low wage workers owing to Britain's membership in Europe. Economists also favored austerity for everyone, but Germany, which set the example by supplying its own tight fistedness to domestic consumption; such that Mario Draghi was pleading with Europe's politicians yesterday to give up some fiscal help to his failed monetary policy. Anyone who thinks that Europe, or its complicit economists, know what they are doing is living in a fool's paradise.

The interest convergence to zero has amazingly shot past zero, and just yesterday Bill Gross pointed out that there are ten trillion in negative yield bonds out there, which is a lot of negative carry. We all know what negative carry indicates in the real estate market, but here in the US QE on the Zirp has made the rich very much richer, and blue collar Republicans in three pointed hats find that a cause for celebration! In America's Alfred E Newman Economy, the real economy doesn't count, and nobody cares. So perhaps Brexit doesn't matter to anyone, but Germany and the very rich, who will ride the QE wave forever into a new feudal order.
dEs JoHnson (Forest Hills)
Stephen: Deutschland Deutschland uber alles! is a song sung to the same air, or tune, as "God Save The Queen," and "Glorious Things of Thee are Spoken" by John Newton. And Brexit does matter to the peoples of Ireland (incl. N. Ireland), Scotland, and Wales.
ted (portland)
Stephen: Excellent analogy; it might be noted that this began with Milton Friedman, we have seen a steady loss of purchasing power since going off the gold standard except for those using financial engineering. This has accelerated since the crisis, zero bound rates and Q.E.were never intended to benefit Main Street they were enacted to save the big banks and cheap money has been used only to do stock buybacks and for M. and A. activity. Globalization has taken away demand as people have lost their jobs and the effects of N.I.R.P. have been a further dampener on demand universally as those credit worthy savers have intelligently cut back on their spending. The cheap money has again created bubbles not only in R. E. and stocks but in bundled consumers loans which could once again become toxic. As the party continues, the big question should be have Blankfein and their ilk begun betting against the "Dog sh-- wrapped in cat sh-- "they are pedaling yet again? The irony of this article though is some how laying blame on Populists and the audacity to mention Greece, Greece failed because of its fraudulent manipulation of it's books to gain entrance to the E.U. arranged by Blankfein, Cohen and Goldman Sachs. Kissinger in the mix is the supreme irony, Cohen should update the players to Nuland and Kagan. The Soviet Union disappeared because of the money pit of Afganistan and Gorbachov allowing the foxes(oligarchs)into the hen house. Sound familiar, we are following the same script.
The Real Mr. Magoo (Virginia)
People and nations have short memories - and it seems that each new generation must learn anew the lessons of the past by repeating the mistakes of the past.
Jarhead (Maryland)
Roger, I thought you opening segment was absolutely brilliant and articulate in the the extreme; then when you got to NATO, you went off the rails, and by the end you had dropped to the conventional wisdom.

As an aside, your description of Hitler is a good one to apply to Trump. A "vulgar buffoon", indeed. And unrelated, Hillary, the "crooked self-server". I digress.

It was not the entity of NATO that brought Europe up and out of the post-war; herein, as many Europeans do, you fail to give credit where credit is due. It was Harry Truman, George Marshall and the United States armed with the Marshall Plan that shoved Europe back up right and to its feet again. Not just NATO. NATO was an American creation beside the U.K. and France. It was part of the cure not the cure. One of the only reason this generation of Europeans is not speaking Russian is that the United States did not go back to isolationism in the wake of WW2, we stayed. We helped rebuild, yes we benefitted and profited from this economic growth by selling into Europe, but all the better for all.

Lets be clear. The truth is that the essence of all these trans-European organs and entities you celebrate is to address one very real, core European human fear. Creating ties that preventing another war in Europe. The War of 1870, WW1, WW2, and even Cold War confrontations are all wounds too raw. Like our American Civil War, that still resonates in our culture.

I'm voting for Gov. Gary Johnson for President.
Mike Thompson (New York)
When I was in Berlin I too marveled at the city's physical embodiment of 20th century history and ideology, from Checkpoint Charlie to the Reichstag. Having grown up in American suburbia, the physical embodiment of the familiarly mundane, the place hardly seemed real. It was if I had been sucked into my 9th grade history textbook instead of landing at a real airport. I left with the feeling that through turmoil, violence, and enormous bloodshed, a victory had been won. Peace, reason, and civilization had triumphed over mindless ideologies and dictators, a new Europe forged from the ashes of the old at zero hour and again in 1989.

Now the New Europe is facing its greatest tests ever, in the form of economic and monetary crises and a migration crisis that has reignited national tensions and threatened the common European identity. This is a truly critical moment for Europe, one which will determine the course of its 21st century story. So far the institutional EU and European leaders have collectively failed in their response. Both must change their thinking to provide a strong, coherent framework for dealing with the fiscal and refugee crises, in particular by ensuring the external borders of the EU and the economic well-being of ordinary citizens. If collective action fails then states will act individually, and the New Europe will sadly fall apart.
dEs JoHnson (Forest Hills)
Mike: "If collective action fails then states will act individually, and the New Europe will sadly fall apart..." just as in America.
dEs JoHnson (Forest Hills)
Correction, RC. The UK will vote, not "Britain" alone. The implications for Ireland and its frontier with the UK are great. A peace process has been in place in the island for 18 years. A Brexit would put all of that in jeopardy. Yet, once more the people of England help to decide for the peoples of all of Ireland who backed the peace process by large majorities. To some, this will seem a small matter given the other aspects of a Brexit, but it illustrates how lack of logic can distort reality.

The English are still trying to define themselves as a people, rather than as a dominating class. They can't even acknowledge their long history with France. (Since Henry VI, George III was the first king of England not to take the title “king of France.”) The English language owes a lot to Frenchmen like the "English" king, Henry II (son of Geoffrey Duke of Normandy and Eleanor of Aquitaine). Their son, Richard I (the Lionheart) was king of England for 10 years, but visited England only twice in that time and for a total of less than a year.

Without the cloak of master-race, the English struggle with serious psychological challenges.
Clive (Richmond, Ma)
Dear Mr Cohen,
As a Brit I will be voting OUT not for any other reason than I DO NOT WANT TO BE IN AN ALLIANCE WITH A STATE(S) THAT PUT THIER INTEREST(S) BEFORE THOSE IN THE EU.
Britain was dragged into first world war because "ALLIANCES" not for any other reason.
If Turkey becomes a member of the EU God knows what the power grabbing Erdogan got up his sleeve. The same goes for fascist parties who are appearing on the scene in member countries.
The EU was good as an Economic Union NOT as a Political Union.
Any fears about the affect on business are from people who have no faith in the "free market" more commonly know as "capitalism".
minh z (manhattan)
When the EU court ruled that France could not jail an illegal immigrant who used someone else's passport to enter France it placed in stark terms, what it means to be in the EU. It means madness.

When Mr. Cohen says:
"I believe that reason will prevail over derangement..."
he's supporting that ruling and the madness that comes with unelected, globalist, open borders bureaucrats who don't represent their citizens.

No wonder Brexit is gaining. After the destruction of Greece's economy for probably 20 years, Germany, the ringleader, encouraged illegal immigrants to run roughshod over other sovereign nations to get to their country for asylum. And Germany and Sweden have to censor their police and their citizens to avoid dissension and rioting against their insane pro-illegal migrant actions.

Berlin is no longer a "monument to the triumph of liberty," but a monument to the tremendous arrogance and disastrous stupidity of Angela Merkel. Her decisions are the primary reason that the EU is in danger of dissolving. Let's place the reason and blame squarely where it belongs - on those politicians and bureaucrats that have made policy decisions that ignore the risks to their own constituencies, in order to play social engineers and to impress each other, and the elites and media that support them.

The people of the EU have lost, and are restive. Mr. Cohen is one of the media people that cannot accept the EU is not working for the people of the EU.
realcoolchris (london)
Your analysis is totally accurate.

I'm voting for Brexit largely down to the two points you mentioned.

With Greece, Germany insisted that they had to play by the rules, no matter how much it hurt them. Yet weeks later, Merkel abandoned all rules, including the Dublin agreement and without consultation with Germany or other EU countries, to invite millions of immigrants to Europe. They are not wanted by many in Germany nor the countries through which they've traipsed en route.

The hypocrisy is staggering: the effects on the mainly poor countries through which they've come will be long-lasting. Brexit may break Europe but Merkel is the catalyst.

Nine countries are nett contributors to the EU, nineteen are nett recipients of funds. The nett recipients are countries with small populations, a very short history of democracy and often significant corruption. Yet at the so-called top table country each has an equal vote. This means that polices which benefit the nett recipients will always be passed; those that don't have much less chance.

So Malta with a population of less than half a million and a nett recipient of cash has the same voting rights as Germany with over 80 million people and the largest nett contributor of EU funds.

My dad always defined democracy as "one man, one vote". EU democracy somehow doesn't seem to reflect that.
the doctor (allentown, pa)
Cohen writes that "A season of anger is upon the west". I totally agree, and would add that the west is entering a era of post-issue politics, where that anger and bigotry (aimed mostly at immigrants and minorities) results in the rise of La Pens and Trumps and other dark voices of nativism whose single "policy" is too fuel resentment and disunity.
Pressburger (Highlands)
Soviet Union lost territory and power, just like UK after World War II. Europe lost influence also by essentially a Civil War referred to as WWII.
Currently the EU is a bastion of enlightened capitalism and compassionate democracy.
The question is if the US adopt the European (Bernie) model of society or continue view world as a race toward hegemony. In case of the later choice by US the only choice for the EU is co-opting Ukraine in 20 years and Russia in 50. This will make the EU geopolitically competitive with the US and China.
storico (Mobile, Alabama)
"Liberal interventionist idealism" means preying on the patriotism and selflessness of those who volunteer to serve in the US armed forces. It asks them to be ready to die for a guess by the self-appointed best and brightest as to the best way to meddle in the affairs of others. It is the zombie spirit of the US prosecution of the Vietnam War.

Many of us had hoped it was dead. GW Bush & Company revived it fully, but Democrats and Republicans before him had nourished it. Obama/HR Clinton's disastrous response to the Arab Spring shows how it still roams free among the policy elites.

To praise anyone, Kissinger or Powers or whoever, for keeping alive the hope that US dabbling will one day make the world more perfect is to be willfully blind and morally adrift. Columns like this ask us to acquiesce in the deaths and maiming of those in the armed forces who thought they were enlisting to protect their country, but instead are asked to perish for an idealism they do not share. And it has caused the deaths of millions abroad who were simply trying to quietly get by, but instead found themselves unwittingly in the way of a US bomb or bullet.
Jane (Austin)
Don't cry for those of us who joined the military. We did so knowing full well what we were doing. We are not rubes. Your concern is misplaced.
Mark (Boston)
The trans-Atlantic alliance is an alliance in support of global capitalism, backed by the ultra rich who control the largest global corporations, based in the United States and Europe. (A similar trans-Pacific alliance secures Japanese capital.) The deal was, American corporations got to penetrate Europe in return for military protection paid for by American taxpayers. Ordinary, non-rich Americans are beginning to ask what is in this deal for them. Ordinary, non-rich Europeans are asking how an EU built mainly for the benefit of Europe's corporations and ultra-rich benefits them. No doubt the EU raises GDP growth rates. But when all of the benefits of that growth go to the top 1%, and the cost is paid by small businesses displaced by megacorporations and workers whose jobs move to the cheapest labor markets, the question is whether these institutions really serve the interests of the 99%.
FSMLives! (NYC)
Conservatives: "Is it good for business?"

Liberals: "Is it good for immigrants?"

The only question that really matters and is never allowed to be asked is: "Is it good for the country"?
Lotzapappa (Wayward City, NB)
I’m sorry, but this column is utter rubbish from beginning to end. Start with the contention that “the EU and NATO are ridiculed.” Certainly true of the EU, not at all true about NATO. The EU may crumble, but for pragmatic reasons NATO will remain. Rubbish pile #2: “that Britain will remain where it belongs . . . in Europe.” Britain will not be towing itself to a new location off the coast of Angola. Britain has always been, is now, and will remain part of Europe. Cohen strangely conflates the EU, which in its current manifestation was founded only in 1993 by the Maastricht Treaty, with Europe, a continent with a rather longer, richer, and more diverse history. Should the EU collapse, Europe will remain and may well reorganize itself into a looser, saner, more flexible association of countries. Rubbish pile #3: “the euro maintained through necessity in defiance of logic.” Huh!? “defiance of logic, certainly, necessity . . . hardly. Rubbish pile #4: Brexit will not be a disaster. In fact, it may prove an inspiration for a number of European nations (Greece, Portugal, Spain, possibly even Italy) who have been suffering for the past decade under a largely German-led program of extreme economic austerity that has wrung them dry. Brexit may show them the truth of an American president’s words, “You have nothing to fear but fear itself.” If this leads to a “bank run” on the EU, then Brexit will have been a great success!
Poor Richard (Main Street)
There should be little doubt of the benefits to our shores of the stability and solidarity of the European shores. The many proffered diagnoses however miss the mark when attempting to explain the dissatisfaction leaking out all over the continent, and not just in Britain. There is a cautionary tale here, and that is that force-feeding a heavy-handed, over-reaching super state, steeped in the typically statist smugness that unelected, wooly-headed "progressives" know what is best for all will prompt reaction, and not of the dainty, garden-party type. This sort of thinking, btw, is prevalent in the salons and enclaves of "progressives" in this country as well. Through politics, academia and the media, these self-styled "betters" impose their world view upon the rest of us and when confronted with opposition, begin their tired name calling, shaming and condescension. The result will be a fracturing of the consensus of what this country is. We will begin to resemble Yugoslavia after the departure of Tito; those with some awareness of history will understand what that means. So-called progressives will not. They will have been the cause and they will be its first victims.
Ultraliberal (New Jersy)
The old saying the rich get richer & the poor have babies, has never been truer.The Western world has never fully recovered from the Bush Recession. The middle class exists only in name.The Masses are rising, & demand change, fed up with struggling to put bread on the table & being totally ignored, that is until Trump won the nomination. Now it’s too late to turn the tide, the disenfranchised have only unrealistic promises to hold onto, & are ready for radical change.The feeling America comes first, is the rallying cry, so it is in Britain & throughout Europe.The unthinkable is very thinkable & has become a driving force in Politics. People are taking another look at the Libertarians, their Isolationist platform is radiating as never before.When all is said and done, it’s the economy stupid.
robert blake (nyc)
What's the difference? Europe as we used to know it is over. The Nation of Islam is beginning to overwhelm the continent. Just keep bringing in more immigrants. Turn out the lights the party is over.
Erik Roth (Minneapolis)
"Henry Kissinger, the personification of realpolitik ... “necessity of the coherence of the Atlantic world” ... the American ambassador to the United Nations, Samantha Power, the recipient of this year’s Kissinger Prize ... the personification of liberal interventionist idealism ... America’s postwar European and internationalist commitment has held across the foreign policy spectrum."
This euphemistic verbiage boils down (on a gravely warming world) to this:
European unity is an illusion and the American Empire, like all empires, cannot stand. The unravelling is apparent. Think about that.
Ian Haworth (Manchester, UK)
This is an extremely insightful and thought provoking piece. Brexit would be a disaster for the UK, EU, and the world economy. The British tabloids are as wretched in their wolf-whistle immigration scare stories as the campaign itself is absent of reasoned debate. It's an utterly depressing spectacle. The only reason the UK is having a referendum at all is because of divisions in the ruling Conservative party. Hopefully by Christmas 2016, the Uk will still be in the EU and a sane woman will be writing her inauguration speech. Otherwise we're in deep trouble.
donald surr (Pennsylvania)
The division of economic and military capabilities has changed drastically in this world since America assumed the lead and military responsibility for maintaining world order in the decades immediately following WWII. A basically US-funded and mothered NATO, and its equivalents in the Far East and Middle East are things of the past. Some new world order, in which the US plays only a supportive role to its former protectorates across the seas has to be devised.
Not to recognize that and to yearn nostalgically for past decades, that are now history, that is what is unthinkable.
Pundit (Paris)
If it were not for Eastern European immigration to Britain, would Brexit stand a chance? I don't think so. Angry WASPs are DANGEROUS, whether in the UK or the US. Maybe we should expel them?
Prof. Sigrid Gottfredsen (Madison, Wisconsin)
"No economic implosion swallowed it." Where were you from 1989 to 1991 when this all happened? I was in Berlin. The Soviet Union collapsed because of it's moribund economy--it couldn't keep up with the USA in military expenditure, and its people lost their patience with a planned economy.
ted (portland)
Dr. Gottfredsen: I rather imagine their military adventures, particularly fifteen years in Afganistan, had a great deal to do with this this; why we haven't learned from their mistakes is the real takeaway; but as long as we have a new crop if neoconservatives(Nuland and Kagan) replacing the old guard in this case Kissinger) we have much the same future in store for us as our military budget remains higher than the rest of the developed world together and our economy planned by the likes of Milton Friedman continues to exploit the masses for the benefit of the few.
Lorem Ipsum (DFW, TX)
The Saudis did more to bury the Soviet Union that Saint Ronald ever did. Crash the price of the one thing the world is willing to pay the USSR hard currency for, and implosion ensues.

Aren't we seeing the same thing in Venezuela now?
Carmen (San Francico)
NATO is now seen as what it is.... a militaristic imperial force, headed by the United States trying to encircle Russia. Putin has every right to sound the alarm bells. With Clinton as President, the neocons will be back in power with Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and the green light for Netanyahu.
Maria Littke (Ottawa, Canada)
Well said!
Pundit (Paris)
Had Putin left his military budget where it was under Yeltsin, NATO would be half-way to disintegration. It is his foolish policy that has put NATO back on its feet.
Laurence Davies (Scotland)
How on earth can NATO "encircle Russia". Take a look at a map. Are China, Japan, or Iran members of NATO?
Ron Weiss (Stamford, CT)
Exhibit A for "the unimaginable must be taken seriously if it is to be averted": Donald J. Trump.
greenie (Vermont)
Although I understand the strength of the EU in it's determination to bind the countries of Europe together and forever banish the prospect of their making war on each other, I see the predicament that they are in. Although in the case of Britain, they didn't adopt the euro and so are not tied financially to the EU, they do have to observe the free traffic of EU citizens thru their country and allow them to settle there. This I think is the rub. I don't think Britain wants to take all who end up in any EU country. I think in particular they are leery of unskilled migrants, Muslims etc. I totally understand why they would wish to have a say in who enters their country and who gets to stay.
dEs JoHnson (Forest Hills)
greenie: "they... they... they." And it's not just Britain that's involved in Brexit... it's the UK.
Joe Gilkey (Seattle)
The other half of the story, never told, has always more interesting, and even before the wall was ever built, it was already too late for the unthinkable.
Kalidan (NY)
Mr. Cohen, I do believe you are missing the point.

There were (at least) two reasons that western European nations set aside their history of distrust and agreed to EU: (a) avoid another world war, and (b) try to overcome the south European love of fascism (Portugal, Greece, Spain, Italy), and the east European love for communism.

These factors are now beyond outdated. Communism is done. Europe has lost all appetite for warfare in Europe (if not elsewhere), and fascism is not dominant.

Today, the chief factor is the real and imaginary fear and anxiety associated with immigration, immigration of Muslims caused by a very complex set of factors. I have taken the subway in Munich at 12:30AM and observed young, unaccompanied ladies traveling without any fear. It is the single most beautiful symbol of the civilized society the Germans have created. Then London, Paris, Madrid happened. Then Cologne happened.

No societies that have tried this hard to unite at the expense of autonomy, this hard to overcome their inherent distrust, and this hard to create a civil society - should have to sacrifice it all because immigrants are demanding that the host environment should entirely change to suit their inhuman, misogynistic belief system. Or else.

If the issue was only economic, they would have resolved it. It isn't. It is immigration. Hence Britain must exit.

As an unrepententant, unapologetic Anglophile, and an immigrant in this country, I support the Brexit.
Jack (London)
Given that in your analysis of the reasons for the creation of the EU you fail to mention the elephant in the room (no mention of Germany and Hitler, really?), I tend to distrust your motives.
Geoffrey Brooks (Reno NV)
To Kalidan

Advocating a Brexit based on the "nationalist" turn back the clock anti-immigrant reasons above is pure nonsense.

The world is changing, we have to ensure it survives by emphasising commonality and civility towards all. A secular Europe that embraces all - should despise all religious fascists who wish to impose a "leap back into the past". All societies goal should be inclusive, tolerant and live under common humanist principles of respect.

The closer that societies come together, the more differences will be blurred and the commonality of human social needs will predominate. Lets bring on the concept of a "common good life" for all regardless of ethnicity, religion. Ending the distinctly human idea of "groups" wallowing in common misery and a longing for times which have disappeared should be long gone!

The world as a whole as to content with the coming calamities of climate change, coupled with desertification and flooding which will displace millions of humans in the near future. The long N. Syrian drought was the "spark" for the current barbarous events...is just a portent of what our small globe will have to contend with in the next few decades as humans struggle to support a population of 10 billion.

Societies will have to evolve and urbanize to survive and thrive ... splintering them through devolution, Brexit, exclusion will not work!

As a former British citizen, staying in Europe is the future for the whole world.
Peter Dick (West Yorkshire, UK)
This is a confusion. The Brexit campaign objects to immigration from the EU, not from outside the EU. Non-EU migrants cannot automatically enter the UK.
Mathias Weitz (Frankfurt, Germany)
Europe, US - our western world got its midlife crisis.
While the middle east is growing out of its adolescence and has a painful coming of age. We are ill prepared to remain a role model, but many people look at us for our achievements.
Blue state (Here)
Greece should leave, at least for awhile. They need to get out from under the yoke of the migrant crisis, but a longer term problem is the yoke of the Euro. They need awhile with a devaluable drachma, to boost exports, to encourage tourism, to get healthy again. Britain wants but doesn't need more freedom from the EU governance. If it had a stronger role, controlling Germany's excesses, it would be important for Europe and for Britain that it stay in the union.
Danielle Davidson (Canada etc.)
What you call the European miracle, I call the German dominance. Britain's departure would only confirm Germany's power in the EU. This artificial alliance was doomed from the start. The Euro is a money, not a political entity. These alliances were doomed to fail, but this has been accelerated by Merkel's recent migration policy. What we will see, whether there is a Brexit or not, is a stronger rise of parties from the Right. Europe's economy is suffering and its citizens want to see return on their taxes, and not obligated to pay for people who will not integrate. Most western leaders are deaf to their constituents frustrations, and do not consider the imbalance they are demographically creating by importing hundred of thousands of men who will not work nor be able to marry.
The balance of the world is not dictated by an imposed EU, as future conflicts are predictable. Just think of the divergent policies within the union. And what will be the role of America? I predict that Obama saw it coming and that is why he was focused on partnering with Asia in terms of economic alliances. Europe as we know it is probably a thing of the past. Should conflicts erupt in various countries, My guess is The United States will be reluctant to get involved and may become more protectionist. Particularly if more terrorist attacks are perpetrated in Europe.
director1 (Philadelphia)
Britain existed before the EU, it will exist after it.
Robert (Brattleboro)
Cohen does not adequately explain why we should care if the European Union breaks apart. Throwing Hitlers name and the tragedy of WWII into the mix does not suffice. The current weak and ineffectual leadership and the problems of migrants are not going away. It may be that the European Union has served its purpose and now must take a new form - one that functions as a binding mechanism more than a straitjacket. Change involves risk, but so does doing nothing.
Henry (Michigan)
Failure to control mass migration, especially from the Islamic World; and failure to end the utterly failed Euro experiment will doom the European Union. Are mass third world immigration and the Euro so important that the E.U. is willing to commit suicide over these two policy choices?
John (Tuxedo Park)
"Absent NATO, Putin would already have devoured Estonia for post-Ukraine dessert." Do you have evidence for this statement or is it a free standing assertion?

Samantha Power is a liberal interventionist. Victoria Nuland and her husband are Neo-Conservatives. Please define the difference.
newell mccarty (oklahoma)
Mr. Cohen does not understand that Mr. Stalin and Mr. Kissinger both came out of the school of bottom-line "realpolitic". One just had more power.
Lars (Winder, GA)
Europeans have created the means of their own destruction - it is the universal state. It is a fine notion if one can maintain the cultural values (yes, "cultural" ) that created it and if one can control the borders and regulate how many people enter for eventual citizenship. Otherwise, the state will fall or at least become something unrecognizable.
Phil Z. (Portlandia)
Which brings us to the question; is a country without controllable borders really a country or just a place with different road signs. Shengen sounded so touchy feelie to the one-worlders, but has been a disaster for those who live in a no mans land today. Several countries are finally re-establishing their borders in response to Merkel's folly, but the enemy has already passed through the gates and history is being re-written before our eyes.
Foulds (Windsor, Vt.)
Brilliantly stated. Let's hold our collective breaths and hope reason prevails.
Ed in Florida (Florida!!!)
I think that the reasons for the fall of the EU might be because of the nature of bureaucracy. Bureaucrats are never happy unless they are making laws and rules and generally telling people what to do. Look at any US Federal department on case you need confirmation. Rather than direct the EU as an economic entity whose resources are daunting, they decided to muck about in the internal affairs of the member states.

Statist approaches tend not to work over time and fortunately for the UK, there is an out without resorting to civil war.
John (Cologne, Gemany)
It is the age of disintegration.

Across Europe, people are identifying with smaller political units rather than the nation state or multi-national alliances. Nationalism is on the rise, as are secession movements within countries. That’s why Czechoslovakia is no more. Ditto, Yugoslavia. The U.K. (Scotland) and Spain (Catalonia) may be next on the list. Smaller, proto-secession movements exist in most other countries as well.

Why? Maybe the costs of political aggregation exceed the costs? Maybe people are afraid and want to regain some control over their lives? Maybe people’s differences exceed their similarities?

Integration may be worthwhile, but the globalist elites have yet to persuasively make that case to the bottom 90%. They had better hurry up.
Flaminia (Los Angeles)
Leveraging the examples of Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia to support a thesis of wholesale breakup of the U.K. or Spain into smaller units is a pretty desperate rhetorical ploy. There was no such thing as Czechoslovakia until 1918. The Czech lands were controlled by comparatively liberal Austria and Slovakia by correspondingly conservative Hungary during the long Austro-Hungarian era. The Czech lands were developed industrially; the Slovak lands were maintained in rural agrarian form. Similarly, the Balkans were not a single entity (Yugoslavia) until 1918. Yugoslavia was cobbled together by mating the independent Kingdom of Serbia with a group of former Austro-Hungarian territories. My point is that both Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia as nations were anomalies in their respective peoples' histories. The relationships among the constituents of the U.K. or Spain are entirely different. If the U.K. or Spain break up you have a serious point but Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia are not harbingers.
Monty Brown (Tucson, AZ)
Nobel sentiments which I share. But as I read the comments to many of the opinion pieces here, I see vehement attacks on those of contrary political parties or political views. Our Red and Blue are angry. Many of those who beg for people who can solve problems and not just find ways to generate division are lost in all of this. Those seeking any semblance of compassion from either side fail to find it here or most places.

Our political situation is abysmal. The Republicans have managed to nominate a candidate who throws bombs at needed friend and foe alike. He has a loyal following of 40% or the voters in that party context. The Democrats have a flawed candidate who lost 40% of her party's support to a wild haired balding socialist. And she garnered support from the President even as her extra ordinary use of a private email server carried classified material. She is sorry and the President keeps making public statements that must be intimidating to the law enforcement people below him in government.

We are adrift and offer little or no leadership to the world. We have two badly flawed candidates, one of whom will lead us over the next few years. This is to me: UNTHINKABLE.
Paul McDonough (California)
As with the USSR in its waning days, the disintegration of the EU is fully in progress, it's just that it's only now becoming externally visible.

Brexit magnifying German dominance? Already done. One merely has to walk the corridors of the EU institutions and count British noses. They aren't there.

Then look at the other states large enough to balance Germany. France? Resolute on economic self-immolation. Poland? Openly disregarding EU edicts. Italy? Just beginning to recover from Berlusconi. Spain? Barely holding together as a state.

Even more telling are the EU efforts to save itself. In its responses to the migration situation and to the currency mess, the European Council has begun (I paraphrase another commentator) to govern by press release rather than following its own legislative processes. The examples are too dull for any but experts to notice - such as the re-allocating of places in the refugee 'relocation' program to 'resettlement' instead, which in effect changed two laws by mere fiat of the EU heads of government.

In short, in trying to save itself the EU is abandoning the rule of law. But what is the EU, if not a collection of laws? Mr Cohen, your article is excellent. But the future it warns of is already here. Europe will survive and, eventually, prosper. But the EU as we knew it has left the building.
Ernest Lamonica (Queens NY)
Earlier today, Friday, on Twitter, I saw that the German Finance Minister stated if England leaver the EU it will be treated the same as any other non EU Country and not get any benefits befitting such an entity. Tariffs. No free movement. Imposing barriers. etc. This can not bode well for England's future.
SR (New York)
I really wonder whether hysterical "the sky is falling" rhetoric is necessary to defend the European Union. There are both possible consequences and possible benefits to Brexit, and Mr. Cohen seems so caught up in platitudes that he fails to allow for this. Neither staying in nor getting out will ultimately make that much difference, and the world will continue much as before. "Unthinkable" indeed!
Dan (Wilmington, de)
Damn Mr. Cohen you had me utterly convinced of the importance of maintaining Britains place in the EU. Why did you have to mention that Kissinger was for it too? Now I'm not so sure.
Dan Green (Palm Beach)
On this side of the Atlantic we will soon get back to a normal dysfunction when the Clintons take office. Not because of the career couples's background or politics, but because they are part of the system , so called insiders of the beltway. The beltway is tied to Wall Street, and the media and has great influence. The EU will see this as stability as Central Bankers, corporations, and well healed political elite can mute their disgruntled electorate. The time for any circumstance other than puttering along is not here yet. Putin will remain un-challenged and Nato a US effort with no teeth. Aside from all the fear factors pumped into the Brits mindset by Central Banker, corporations, and Germany if the Brits hang in they will simply become a shadow of what they once were. Hard to imagine. The US will pat them on the head , well done if they say and then ignore them.
Prof.Jai Prakash Sharma (Jaipur, India.)
With about 45% export to and 53% import from the European common market not only Britain derives great economic benefit from its EU membership but if London has emerged as the world's major financial centre, it's also largely due to its European ties. It's really a win-win for both Britain and the EU. If the EU unravels as a consequence of the "Brexit", so might the British Union, as it might trigger the same separatist impulses in Scotland and Wales too, as these regions are already feeling an unease with the English hegemony. Let's hope the implausible remains implausible only.
lostetter (Troy, MI)
Norway is not a member of the EU, though closely associated with it by means of its membership in the European Economic Area and European Free Trade Association. It seems to be doing quite well. Perhaps the fear of a Brexit is a tad overblown.
Richard Luettgen (New Jersey)
I’d suggest that the foreign army that conquered the Soviet Union consisted of U.S. soldiers based in shared facilities with our allies all over the world, and a Reaganesque re-arming that largely bankrupted them. But it’s true that what truly conquered them was their invalid premises – a cautionary lesson to those who place too much value on planned economies and slave labor.

But Reagan foresaw the fall of the Berlin Wall, if not in 1989 then soon. He wasn’t a man who had lived his entire life under the hammer of an existentially-threatening Communist goliath that strode the Earth: he could imagine its dissolution while many others couldn’t.

I never favored the “Brexit”, because I don’t believe that the solution to the world’s ills is greater fragmentation on tribal lines but greater unity on those of shared values and interests. After all, the Western world shouldn’t become positively Middle Eastern, at least without a sustaining commodity like oil to artificially make it viable.

Britain should remain in the Union and seek ways of defining and furthering shared interests while protecting the cultural totems that make them British and not JUST European.
Virgens Kamikazes (São Paulo - Brazil)
There are a lot of educate interpretations about what happened to the Soviet Union during the 80s - it's a very complex area of study and research. Some historians will focus in the economic aspect, others will focus on the political aspect etc.

But the vulgar liberal theory that the USSR relied on slave labor to survive is insane. Yes, the USSR had gulags and yes, people there were condemned to forced labor, but they were not a signigicant economic output for the Soviet economy, let alone the main economic output. The USA also uses forced labor with it's large prison population - it doesn't mean it relies on slave labor to grow. The USSR was, by all measures, an economic and military global superpower, no if or buts (every serious historian agree with this, it's not disputed) - to say it was simply a Rome or an Ancient Egypt (like Max Weber tried to do) on steroids is preposterous.

P.S.: this slave labor theory is analogous to the also liberal theory that the Red Army relied mainly on executing soldiers that tried to desert to maintain it's loyalty. That's also absurd: Hitler openly considered the Slavs an inferior people, and vowed publicly that he would not only conquer the USSR, but he also would kill every man and make their future generations slaves to the Aryans. Would you need more motivation than that to fight to the death? Executions for deserting happened, but were statistically irrelevant, and it happens in every army at a total war.
Steve Bolger (New York City)
I visited the Soviet Union in 1976 when ordinary Americans were first allowed in. I was curious to see the bogeyman I had been ducking and covering from for 25 years. I found it so decrepit that I concluded that only the antipathy of the US was holding it together even then.
Jeffrey Waingrow (Sheffield, MA)
Invalid premises my eye. Much of the horror bestowed upon the world in the 20th century had its basis in invalid premises. Evil doings may eventually succumb to such imperatives, but not before their realm is laid to waste. Common interests and human interests are one and the same.