I don't think Trump's rise is complicated to explain; America is fed up with professional politicians that talk a lot of talk and get nothing done. Trump's support grows stronger with each attack from the professional politicians. Mitt Romney's scathing condemnation was a great endorsement for Trump. Sadly big money Hillary seems to be being advised by similar clown consultants as she stated today that "I don't think we can take a risk on a loose cannon like Donald Trump running our country". Really Hill? That sort of attack line didn't work so well for Low Energy Jeb, Little Marco, and Lying Ted what makes you think it's going to work for Crooked Hillary?
81
Hillary is assumed innocent till she is proven guilty. IF she is guilty, will Trump become the default president?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/deadlines-loom-for-answers-in-cl...
"A federal judge on Wednesday directed State Department officials and top aides to Hillary Clinton to answer questions under oath by June 29 about whether they intentionally thwarted federal open-records laws by allowing Clinton’s use of a private email server throughout her tenure as secretary of state from 2009 to 2013."
"The decision by U.S. District Judge Emmet G. Sullivan in Washington sets the stage for responses before July’s presidential nominating conventions — but does not ensure cooperation — from at least six current and former top officials, including Cheryl D. Mills, who was Clinton’s chief of staff at State; Huma Abedin, Mills’s deputy who now is vice chairman of Clinton’s Democratic presidential campaign; and Bryan Pagliano, a Clinton staff member during her 2008 presidential campaign who helped set up the private server."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/deadlines-loom-for-answers-in-cl...
"A federal judge on Wednesday directed State Department officials and top aides to Hillary Clinton to answer questions under oath by June 29 about whether they intentionally thwarted federal open-records laws by allowing Clinton’s use of a private email server throughout her tenure as secretary of state from 2009 to 2013."
"The decision by U.S. District Judge Emmet G. Sullivan in Washington sets the stage for responses before July’s presidential nominating conventions — but does not ensure cooperation — from at least six current and former top officials, including Cheryl D. Mills, who was Clinton’s chief of staff at State; Huma Abedin, Mills’s deputy who now is vice chairman of Clinton’s Democratic presidential campaign; and Bryan Pagliano, a Clinton staff member during her 2008 presidential campaign who helped set up the private server."
23
How could any decent person have known how racist and sexist so many people are?
43
Why should we believe anything you pundits say from now on? You are about as credible as my left shoe. The real issue in the general election is not going to be who has more experience or better leadership ability but which candidate elicits more hatred from the potential voters and whether that hatred will motivate the hater to go to the polls.
27
Nobody ever got a poll wrong underestimating the intelligence of the American people.
25
Is it possible that those that have voted for Trump don't have the ability to seriously consider the implications of his presidency? In other words, could those voters be just plain stupid? That fact must be considered at some point.......
39
There is only one reason, and that's the media, mostly cable news, but also print, thought it would be funny and snarky to cover Trump relentlessly, until the country decided they were interested in him, and it was too late to pull back. Nate, don't waste your time pointing the finger anywhere else in an effort to excuse yourself and your less-reputable peers. We are all pointing the finger at you, and it's not a nice one.
68
Maybe you overlooked the people who voted for him who happen to be tax paying, military volunteering, simple people who are tired of professional politicians lying and professional media' condescending attitude that these people are stupid, uneducated and generally lack critical thinking skills.
It's time for a change
It's time for a change
75
It's illegal immigration. Some of them go to agricultural areas but most to inner cities. It's a BIG FACTOR in the high costs of rents. NY metro area alone has 500K illegals even at 10 people per household - and they do double and triple up - that's 50,000 housing units off the market.
33
My slogan for the 2016 campaign: #NoComplacency. Democrats must not be complacent, thinking Trump will eventually bring about his own downfall. We cannot afford to underestimate him or the millions of people who think he has the answers to this nation's problems (lordy, that makes me shudder to even type that). Get out and vote, get others to get out and vote, and vote in both a Democratic President and Congress!
57
It was not anticipated at all. IT has been predicted for a long time, and in fact it is simply lucky for GOP that it did not end up in a contested convention. Read http://liberalcolumns.com/the-anti-trump-meltdown/
5
Many people in establishment also got it all wrong about Bernie Sanders.
49
I think this article is missing a number of critical factors that have less to do with horse-race political campaigning and more to do with long-term trends in the country. #1 the US is going to be a majority minority country at some point in the next century and some Americans are reacting very poorly to this demographic shift #2 the hollowing out of manufacturing in the US and the globalization of the economy has built a sizeable base of people who blame other countries and do not agree with the Republican position on free trade, and #3 Americans take our democratic freedoms and liberties for granted and don't realize the threat that Trump poses.
36
Cohn over-analyses. Let's fall back on Occam's Razor, which may sting a bit, but slices off the fluff and gets to the core. Everyone I talk to (unscientific survey) that supports Trump says some version of the same thing. He says what's on his mind, unvarnished, unedited, no political doublespeak. The next thing they say is they have had it with Washington, not one party or the other, with ev-er-y-one. I'm not a fan of either likely candidate, but I cannot fault the sheer frustration people are feeling. Congress brought this on themselves, now they can pay.
60
MSNBC is the most shameful purveyor of Trump drivel. Last week, they were about to have an in-depth foreign policy discussion with 2 experts when they suddenly stopped everything and redirected coverage to yet another Donald Trump rally where he said the same horrendous, untrue, (fill-in-the)phobic things he continuously spouts. They played this rally in its entirety. Television media has completely abandoned their role in a functioning democracy in order to grasp at the lowest common denominator for profits. Just pathetic.
54
Another useless analysis from someone who has made countless mistakes. Nate could have saved a lot of time by talking to people instead of looking into his crystal ball and working out his mathematical analysis.
37
I am waiting for the Times to write their own obituary when their candidate they have so avidly been trying to foist off on us all, is defeated, simply because they were out of touch with Americans.
This is more than simply another "black swan" moment but a willful attempt to alter reality for other people.
This is more than simply another "black swan" moment but a willful attempt to alter reality for other people.
58
The issue has little to nothing to do with what glorified bloggers "knew" or "got wrong." It comes down to what Mr. Trump knew and how he adapted his approach every step of the way. This article nearly implies that he blustered and lucked his way into the nomination, like some sort of well-to-do Mr. Magoo. The reality rests on good old fashioned savvy. He knows how to court an electorate, he knows how to bide his time, he knows how to read all those apparent "black swan" factors and work them in his favor. He knows how to buy and sell the support that counts, when it counts and he knew it would pay off...or at least had odds he could live with.
12
Last summer and fall, both the "serious" candidates in the GOP race and the media laughed off Mr. Trump. His opponents did not challenge him, as they most likely thought it would have been a waste of effort and money--after all, they didn't spend a lot of time going after George Pataki or Jim Gilmore, either. As his movement grew and his poll numbers rose, the media--both straight journalists and commentators--told us he would inevitably say something beyond the pale that would end his Barnum and Bailey campaign (while they began to cover him more and more, mind you).
Had Mr. Trump's rivals challenged him immediately on policy matters, he would have been shown to be glaringly ignorant right away and his rise nipped in the bud.
Had Mr. Trump's rivals challenged him immediately on policy matters, he would have been shown to be glaringly ignorant right away and his rise nipped in the bud.
10
And this is what happens when reality TV becomes real life, or something like real life. It's terrible, dangerous, and unthinkable. Whatever one thinks of Hillary Clinton, she is now the only person who can stop Trump, so let's go Hillary! Third parties aren't an option, too much potential for another Florida, with a Trump victory at the Supreme Court.
24
"If you had told me about the persistence of the coverage, I wouldn’t have dismissed his chances." What? Huh? These are all terrible and terribly thin, inaccurate speculations that Nate lists.
One thing is clear as a bell: from the start we were all force fed the idea of Clinton II and Bush III. The media rammed that at us really hard, oiling us up and getting us ready for what they in the punditworld were drooling over.
Unfortunately, people that voted for Trump had simply had enough; the Republicans and Democrats deadlocked so hard ineffectually for so many years, people wanted to embrace something exciting. They wanted something outside the same tired, old guard.
People really have no clue what they are hoping for, so they are sucking up every pearl that drops from this Promise Candidate's mouth. And why shouldn't they! At this point, a lot of these people who are still smarting economically are ready for anything that doesn't run the Same Old Course.
And yes—be careful what you wish for because you MAY actually get it.
We'll see what transpires from here on in. Including, possibly, Trump becoming president. And we shall ALL see whats what.
No matter how much Mr. Cohn tries to rationalize and explain what happened, its simply this: the people are revolting. (And oh, are they ever. In the jokey AND serious way.)
One thing is clear as a bell: from the start we were all force fed the idea of Clinton II and Bush III. The media rammed that at us really hard, oiling us up and getting us ready for what they in the punditworld were drooling over.
Unfortunately, people that voted for Trump had simply had enough; the Republicans and Democrats deadlocked so hard ineffectually for so many years, people wanted to embrace something exciting. They wanted something outside the same tired, old guard.
People really have no clue what they are hoping for, so they are sucking up every pearl that drops from this Promise Candidate's mouth. And why shouldn't they! At this point, a lot of these people who are still smarting economically are ready for anything that doesn't run the Same Old Course.
And yes—be careful what you wish for because you MAY actually get it.
We'll see what transpires from here on in. Including, possibly, Trump becoming president. And we shall ALL see whats what.
No matter how much Mr. Cohn tries to rationalize and explain what happened, its simply this: the people are revolting. (And oh, are they ever. In the jokey AND serious way.)
22
Nate, if you take the trouble to read a number of these comments, I think you'll soon see that you've greatly downplayed something that in fact is HUGE. Many people are seething. Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders are vehicles through which this rage is funneled. That's the big story, not all the other stuff you offer up. Try to feel the anger.
73
Say what you will about Trump and Sanders, at least they promise to upset the status quo of political shape-shifters who are bought and controlled by the big banks and Wall Street and who decide key positions on the latest polling.
31
Nate, Trump is media`s creation for their profit of ratings now we are all going to watch the horror story unfolds. What he leashed against Ted Cruz who himself is a despicable man shows us nothing will stop him.
If Hillary is the nominee She is ready I hope. Then if by any chance Bernie Sanders becomes one all the dealings and secrets of his wife are going to unfold in multiples plus so much more.
If Hillary is the nominee She is ready I hope. Then if by any chance Bernie Sanders becomes one all the dealings and secrets of his wife are going to unfold in multiples plus so much more.
7
I disagree with you on one point, and I think there is something huge that you are not even addressing.
The 'Huge Collective Action" problem at the beginning of the campaign is not correct. Jeb Bush was very very well funded.
Second, where is the will of the voter in your analysis? People are fed up, and that's why Trump succeeded, and no amount of money or party maneuvering was going to change that.
The 'Huge Collective Action" problem at the beginning of the campaign is not correct. Jeb Bush was very very well funded.
Second, where is the will of the voter in your analysis? People are fed up, and that's why Trump succeeded, and no amount of money or party maneuvering was going to change that.
49
GOP politicians since Nixon have neither stellar track records nor true passion for public service. It's all about winning elections, appeasing their benefactors, and the consolidation of power.
Pat Buchanan, Nixon's press secretary and a former presidential candidate himself, recalls what later became known as the Southern Strategy. Nixon had just made a campaign stop in South Carolina, whipping the crowd into an emotional frenzy with dog whistle references to African Americans.
As they exited the hall, Buchanan recalls, Nixon turned to him with a gleeful smile and said "THIS is the future of the Republican party".
Trump has simply given full-throated voice to what has been the GOP strategy for decades: divide the followers with wedge issues, promise much, and deliver nothing.
It took a near-Depression in 2008, and failing economic fortunes for those middle-and-lower income citizens, to arouse a sleepwalking populace. They're "mad as hell, and they're not gonna take it anymore."
Thomas Jefferson believed that well-timed series of American Revolutions would be necessary to preserve our Democracy.
That time is now at hand.
Pat Buchanan, Nixon's press secretary and a former presidential candidate himself, recalls what later became known as the Southern Strategy. Nixon had just made a campaign stop in South Carolina, whipping the crowd into an emotional frenzy with dog whistle references to African Americans.
As they exited the hall, Buchanan recalls, Nixon turned to him with a gleeful smile and said "THIS is the future of the Republican party".
Trump has simply given full-throated voice to what has been the GOP strategy for decades: divide the followers with wedge issues, promise much, and deliver nothing.
It took a near-Depression in 2008, and failing economic fortunes for those middle-and-lower income citizens, to arouse a sleepwalking populace. They're "mad as hell, and they're not gonna take it anymore."
Thomas Jefferson believed that well-timed series of American Revolutions would be necessary to preserve our Democracy.
That time is now at hand.
17
The Trump phenomenon is amazing. I have no intention of voting for him. Hillary is an excellent candidate, smart, level-headed. I love it when she addresses foreign policy issues. It is so reassuring to hear one candidate speak sensibly about the complex and challenging world in which we live. I enjoyed Nate's analysis, but there is, I think, something missing. Trump is brash, undiplomatic and unrealistic; however, he is fun to watch and I found his comment about the Iraq war especially candid and correct. To paraphrase him, "Talk about mistakes! That one was a beauty!" He stated simply that we had gotten absolutely nothing for the trillions we spent on that misbegotten war. Our treatment of the veterans who came back destroyed has been miserable. The Republicans, who got us into this horrible mess, refused to pony up to provide proper care, and then the liars blamed President Obama for the mess. Abortion is another issue. Trump blurted out that the woman having the abortion would have to be punished. That led to one of the most outrageous lies by the sanctimonious Ted Cruz, who with a straight face and a soothing tone explained that of course Republicans don't want to punish women who have an abortion. That's ridiculous. Republicans favor parental rights for rapists! Any time during the long primary season I heard a Republican come out with something reasonable (Jeb Bush, John Kasich), I knew that they were doomed. The Republicans are reaping the hatred they have sown.
19
Who else did the Republicans offer as candidates ? Cruz (ich) Carson ? (Huh?) Kasich ? (Eh) Christie (yuck) Rubio?( oh brother) Bush ( the most reasonable,but not very compelling) Fiorina ? (Oof) I detest Trump for so many reasons,but he just is more exciting than the rest...
6
Kudos for Nate Cohn for admitting error--the only one among NYT pundits, so far, to show ANY humility in the face of their egregious errors; their lack of insight into EITHER of the outsiders in this Presidential campaign has been conspicuous.
As many of your readers suggest, class blindness plays a big role--clearly demonstrated in Obama's failure to give a rip about the tragedy of Flint...until he began to show concern about his legacy. Until then, these supporters (most of them) were just statistics.
But even Cohn, who admits blowing the call on Trump, seems to have no true humility about, or understanding, of his blindness. In his case, I believe the hubris of youth plays a role. Clearly he's very bright--perhaps too bright by half. But intellectual acumen is not as valuable as it's cracked up to be: the "best and the brightest" have often been tragically wrong.
Intellect without heart--and especially without wisdom, born of experience...in particular, the experience of suffering--is like the vision of the one-eyed: it is impaired by the lack of DEPTH perception.
The whole editorial staff of the Times, with few exceptions, has been a great disappointment in this political year. These days I subscribe only to read the COMMENTS sections: your readers' wit, depth, truthfulness and insight far surpasses that of your writers.
As many of your readers suggest, class blindness plays a big role--clearly demonstrated in Obama's failure to give a rip about the tragedy of Flint...until he began to show concern about his legacy. Until then, these supporters (most of them) were just statistics.
But even Cohn, who admits blowing the call on Trump, seems to have no true humility about, or understanding, of his blindness. In his case, I believe the hubris of youth plays a role. Clearly he's very bright--perhaps too bright by half. But intellectual acumen is not as valuable as it's cracked up to be: the "best and the brightest" have often been tragically wrong.
Intellect without heart--and especially without wisdom, born of experience...in particular, the experience of suffering--is like the vision of the one-eyed: it is impaired by the lack of DEPTH perception.
The whole editorial staff of the Times, with few exceptions, has been a great disappointment in this political year. These days I subscribe only to read the COMMENTS sections: your readers' wit, depth, truthfulness and insight far surpasses that of your writers.
62
Nate, you and the Times got a lot wrong this primary season, not just about Trump. But it's not just that your predictions were wrong - you dismissed opposing views and chastised those who held them. I don't know if that was strategic or whether your hubris blinded you, or both. Either way, you should be way more humble and apologetic than you seem to be.
33
Last night I was watching Donal Trump speaking about his landslide win in Indiana...and suspension of running announced by Ted Cruz. Former House Majority Leader..Republican Tom De Lay, was interviewed...and stated his difficulty supporting a Trump nomination. This is the same man that wrote 1 of the 41 letters of support to the judge handling the Hastert ..former US
12
I think a lot of pollsters wanted to believe that Trump would flop, just like they almost always over-estimated Hillary's numbers.
Now the pollsters are over-estimating Hillary against Trump, and I think they have it backwards.
I would never vote for either of them. HRC is really a Rockefeller Republican, and if Sanders runs as a third party, Clinton and Trump would split the G.O.P. vote, so Bernie would win.
5/4 @ 7 pm
Now the pollsters are over-estimating Hillary against Trump, and I think they have it backwards.
I would never vote for either of them. HRC is really a Rockefeller Republican, and if Sanders runs as a third party, Clinton and Trump would split the G.O.P. vote, so Bernie would win.
5/4 @ 7 pm
14
This whole article of excuses is just a continuation of why you got it wrong. Nate, you want to be the news rather than report on it. Most everyone looking on discounted all of the journalistic rubbish written and new that Trump from an early stage was going to win.
26
It's been a primary season of extremism and lies from both Trump and Sanders. Both have been power insiders for their entire working lives - but both lie and promote themselves as "outsiders." Laughable - Trump has been buying politicians of all types for decades, and Sanders has lived off the tax trough for 30 years sitting in the Senate - not having any friend there is a big red flag, but just one of many for such a proud Socialist. Both are running to boost their fragile egos - what this country does not need in the Oval Office is a man with ego problems. Both have massive failures in their pasts that undermine their claims - Trump has bankruptcies, Sanders has no legislation to his name, and no foreign policy experience - he could not get work in a think tank, nevermind in the White House. The same Sanders who said he would not run a "nasty" campaign has his wife out on talk shows now urging the FBI to waste more of our tax dollars investigating an email server - ignoring all the others who have had personal email servers while in office. Hmmm.... If you acknowledge the lies and the corruption of both these men, then you understand how they can hoodwink some - but not all of us. Those of us who have fallen prey to their lies know who our candidate it, and we will be proud to vote for Hillary Clinton in November.
7
The main thing you underestimated was the intense racism that fires up so many voters. It is not PC to admit racism out loud, but the "wall" and call to "ban on Muslims" placed racism in a congenial enough light for many folks who imagine themselves to be above that type of thing to go for Trump. No other Republican canidate was able to hit on a formula.
4
It's all about jobs.
Trump gets it. Sanders gets it. But our society's power brokers and punditocracy don't get it. The NYT Magazine just featured President Obama wondering why the low unemployment rate and other "economic recovery" data points weren't winning him friends and influencing people on his behalf. He doesn't get it either.
The unemployment rate is gamed, because it only counts people actively looking for work. There are two much more important numbers.
The first much more important number is the percentage of working age people with jobs. The second is the percentage of employment gains going to U.S. born or immigrant workers.
The first number, the percentage of working age people with jobs, is appallingly low.
The second number is both very low and very high: the U.S. born population has made no employment gains and has suffered grievous employment losses, whereas all -- that's right, all -- the employment gains have gone to immigrant workers since before the Great Recession.
At the grass roots, everybody knows these facts in a visceral way and can testify that the supply of working age people far outstrips the demand for them.
If number crunching is going to matter, it has to involve crunching the really important numbers.
Trump gets it. Sanders gets it. But our society's power brokers and punditocracy don't get it. The NYT Magazine just featured President Obama wondering why the low unemployment rate and other "economic recovery" data points weren't winning him friends and influencing people on his behalf. He doesn't get it either.
The unemployment rate is gamed, because it only counts people actively looking for work. There are two much more important numbers.
The first much more important number is the percentage of working age people with jobs. The second is the percentage of employment gains going to U.S. born or immigrant workers.
The first number, the percentage of working age people with jobs, is appallingly low.
The second number is both very low and very high: the U.S. born population has made no employment gains and has suffered grievous employment losses, whereas all -- that's right, all -- the employment gains have gone to immigrant workers since before the Great Recession.
At the grass roots, everybody knows these facts in a visceral way and can testify that the supply of working age people far outstrips the demand for them.
If number crunching is going to matter, it has to involve crunching the really important numbers.
29
You rightly alluded to his celebrity. Never underestimate the power of television. It made you, It made me. Only in recent years after weaning myself off the hypertense senationalist circus that is Television did I finally come to realize how addictive and persuasive it is. As the scenes flash by' you are drawn into total awareness of the programming, and surrender to it's message. You become a part of it and it becomes a part of you.
Your every free moment is drawn to the Television as you watch the flashing scenes and the hyperventilating dialog hour after hour like watching a tense soap opera. You come home from work every night and "Relax" in front of a TV, even spend countless weekend hours, rain or shine binge watching.
I was never surprised by Don Trumps meteoric rise knowing from the start he was a N.B.C. man. It is no secret N.B.C. has participated in the molding of American politics. They featured Don Trump in his own curdling abrasive insulting spectacle of a show. He is a TV star widely known for years.
Your own reporting told us of the extensive free airtime he received. People are easily duped. All politicians know it as well as you and I. We are a nation of ignorants, not of our own fault, but by the fault of a very addictive, sensationalist, seducing medium that totally occupies the primary senses and overwhelms the mind. Yesterday's TV dramas are today's news channels.
Don Trump will be elected by Television. The people are the tools.
Your every free moment is drawn to the Television as you watch the flashing scenes and the hyperventilating dialog hour after hour like watching a tense soap opera. You come home from work every night and "Relax" in front of a TV, even spend countless weekend hours, rain or shine binge watching.
I was never surprised by Don Trumps meteoric rise knowing from the start he was a N.B.C. man. It is no secret N.B.C. has participated in the molding of American politics. They featured Don Trump in his own curdling abrasive insulting spectacle of a show. He is a TV star widely known for years.
Your own reporting told us of the extensive free airtime he received. People are easily duped. All politicians know it as well as you and I. We are a nation of ignorants, not of our own fault, but by the fault of a very addictive, sensationalist, seducing medium that totally occupies the primary senses and overwhelms the mind. Yesterday's TV dramas are today's news channels.
Don Trump will be elected by Television. The people are the tools.
8
Folks inside the Beltway have systematically misread the intense public anger driving the Trump phenomenon because it is in their interests to do so.
Consider this: the Department of Commerce reports that it now takes an annual household income of ~ $135,000 to live the middle class American Dream -- to own or be buying a home, vehicles for every adult member of the household, some savings for retirement and putting the kids through college, a vacation every year. Yet only the top 10 percent of households earn that much -- you've got to be in the top 10 percent to be middle class in today's America, something increasingly rare outside the Beltway.
People are angry that they're nowhere close to that standard of living, and know that they have been cheated. Thirty years of no net wage gains. That hasn't happened for no reason. Most people aren't policy wonks, but they know a rotten deal when they see one, and so their impulse is to simply upset the apple cart in the hopes that they'll end up killing the worms that are devouring the apples from the inside.
The more hopeful are opting for Bernie. The more authoritarian, for Trump.
But folks inside the Beltway, and in the commentariat, for the most part don't see any of this because it doesn't touch their lives. Their kids are in good schools and headed to good colleges. They've got the prospect of a decent retirement.
The 90% for whom those outcomes are less assured have had enough.
That's what you got wrong, Mr. Cohn.
Consider this: the Department of Commerce reports that it now takes an annual household income of ~ $135,000 to live the middle class American Dream -- to own or be buying a home, vehicles for every adult member of the household, some savings for retirement and putting the kids through college, a vacation every year. Yet only the top 10 percent of households earn that much -- you've got to be in the top 10 percent to be middle class in today's America, something increasingly rare outside the Beltway.
People are angry that they're nowhere close to that standard of living, and know that they have been cheated. Thirty years of no net wage gains. That hasn't happened for no reason. Most people aren't policy wonks, but they know a rotten deal when they see one, and so their impulse is to simply upset the apple cart in the hopes that they'll end up killing the worms that are devouring the apples from the inside.
The more hopeful are opting for Bernie. The more authoritarian, for Trump.
But folks inside the Beltway, and in the commentariat, for the most part don't see any of this because it doesn't touch their lives. Their kids are in good schools and headed to good colleges. They've got the prospect of a decent retirement.
The 90% for whom those outcomes are less assured have had enough.
That's what you got wrong, Mr. Cohn.
262
Compare the exact ratio of articles and Op-ed pieces about Trump with all the other candidates. There is your answer. It's bewildering why a liberal paper has spent inordinate amounts of time writing about the most idiotic presidential candidate in history.
20
People in Wall Street, Capital Hill and the White House live in a world of their own. For them, it is hard to see the people who live outside their world, because there are no communications. The only communications that exist is staged media, which is part of their world. All the predictions are based on the staged information and the polls reflect the stage performance. Finally, the support to their world is crumbling, and will be forced to live in our world.
13
Commentators saying that the rise of Trump is caused by voter discontent need to show how voter attitudes this year are different from other years. Voter discontent always exists, but it usually doesn't result in something like Trump.
Is it because the economy is worse than ever? The economy is actually doing well. Even if you deny that you have to explain why there was no Trump-like figure in 2008, a time of much greater crisis.
The real explanation for the rise of Trump is almost certainly something closer to what Nate is saying.
Is it because the economy is worse than ever? The economy is actually doing well. Even if you deny that you have to explain why there was no Trump-like figure in 2008, a time of much greater crisis.
The real explanation for the rise of Trump is almost certainly something closer to what Nate is saying.
1
No, Nate, not getting away with that. The headline should have read, "What I got wrong about Sanders," and those in the know, know that. Nice faking your way through that one.
24
He speaks for tens of millions of people who believe it is unfair to take resources from working class Americans who have played by the rules their entire lives and give those resources to people who openly defy our immigration laws, who protest in our streets, waving signs in their native languages with lists of further demands of the American people.
Resources are limited, so either our own people will have a strong safety net and our own elderly will have a decent retirement or the money will go to people who came here expressly to game the system.
What kind of country chooses the latter and then tells its citizens who dare question this that they are 'racists' and 'xenophobes'?
What kind of country tells old people that because they were not lucky enough to be born smart or rich and worked 45 hard years as the school janitor or 'lunch lady', that it is *they* who should struggle in their old age, they who should do with less, while the illegal immigrant down the block sits home doing nothing but having child after child, because each one nets them an even larger welfare check?
Who but Trump speaks for those who do not have a cushy jobs as professors or journalists or economists and must compete with illegal aliens for the very necessities of life?
The Left is engaged in discrimination of its own, in the creation of a new underclass and those downtrodden people will eventually revolt.
Trump would be a terrible president, but Liberals need to hear this message.
Resources are limited, so either our own people will have a strong safety net and our own elderly will have a decent retirement or the money will go to people who came here expressly to game the system.
What kind of country chooses the latter and then tells its citizens who dare question this that they are 'racists' and 'xenophobes'?
What kind of country tells old people that because they were not lucky enough to be born smart or rich and worked 45 hard years as the school janitor or 'lunch lady', that it is *they* who should struggle in their old age, they who should do with less, while the illegal immigrant down the block sits home doing nothing but having child after child, because each one nets them an even larger welfare check?
Who but Trump speaks for those who do not have a cushy jobs as professors or journalists or economists and must compete with illegal aliens for the very necessities of life?
The Left is engaged in discrimination of its own, in the creation of a new underclass and those downtrodden people will eventually revolt.
Trump would be a terrible president, but Liberals need to hear this message.
26
It is altogether typical that, having spent the last year almost ignoring the Sanders phenomenon on the left, while obsessing endlessly about Trump's bid on the "right," Cohn's rather mincing little mea culpa should again fail to note how the political class missed the rise and the significance of the massive Social Democratic movement coming together around the Bern.
Everyone knows why. NYT is in the tank for Hillary, and has been from the beginning. The center-left part of the Establishment will allow nothing to spoil their chosen one's coronation, least of all a despised Social Democrat.
Do they know that popular anger, both right and left, against the Establishment is growing? That we are sick of having our jobs outsourced, our healthcare turned into a trough for Big Pharma/Big Insurance, and the housing market made into a casino that overcharges ordinary people for houses, while Washington sticks us with the bill when the casino crashes?
Both Trump and Sanders channel this anger, but only Sanders does so in ways that have stood the test of time worldwide.
So, the Establishment's right wing has been undone by Trump's skill at battening on well-founded (if misdirected) anger. Cohn's other piece today, touting Hillary's current poll lead, makes me doubt he even now sees the buzzsaw of rightwing anger now headed her way. Will he be surprised if Hillary's anodyne defense of the status quo under Obama falls apart the same way as did Bush, Rubio, et al?
Everyone knows why. NYT is in the tank for Hillary, and has been from the beginning. The center-left part of the Establishment will allow nothing to spoil their chosen one's coronation, least of all a despised Social Democrat.
Do they know that popular anger, both right and left, against the Establishment is growing? That we are sick of having our jobs outsourced, our healthcare turned into a trough for Big Pharma/Big Insurance, and the housing market made into a casino that overcharges ordinary people for houses, while Washington sticks us with the bill when the casino crashes?
Both Trump and Sanders channel this anger, but only Sanders does so in ways that have stood the test of time worldwide.
So, the Establishment's right wing has been undone by Trump's skill at battening on well-founded (if misdirected) anger. Cohn's other piece today, touting Hillary's current poll lead, makes me doubt he even now sees the buzzsaw of rightwing anger now headed her way. Will he be surprised if Hillary's anodyne defense of the status quo under Obama falls apart the same way as did Bush, Rubio, et al?
25
Liberals have abandoned the working classes to instead focus endlessly on identity and racial politics that inevitably turn into attacks on heterosexual white males, who are tired of hearing how it is they and their "privilege" who are the cause of any and all social ills in America and, in fact, the entire world.
The Left comes off as insufferable snobs and scolds who seem clueless that their smug sense of superiority and endless moralizing has the opposite effect - they make even politically moderate people support and sympathize with Trump and his followers, the very people who the Left denigrates as "racists" and "xenophobes", without any recognition that they might, just might, have legitimate grievances and worries concerning their marginalization and economic conditions.
Enter Trump, stage Right.
The Left comes off as insufferable snobs and scolds who seem clueless that their smug sense of superiority and endless moralizing has the opposite effect - they make even politically moderate people support and sympathize with Trump and his followers, the very people who the Left denigrates as "racists" and "xenophobes", without any recognition that they might, just might, have legitimate grievances and worries concerning their marginalization and economic conditions.
Enter Trump, stage Right.
63
Given that Ann Coulter said Trump would win the GOP nomination last June, your answer cannot be that it was impossible to have predicted this outcome. Failing to note the country's rage about unchecked illegal immigration is just the start of the NYT's failure to understand this election, or report on it in any useful way.
32
You way over estimate the GOP elite. They completely lost touch with the grass roots. There is zero love for McCain, Romney, etc. They are to out of touch with the every day voter. The Koch Brothers do not rule contrary to progressive belief.
12
The voters for Trump show just how much disrespect they have for the office, as well as the process. Politicians in general, and republican politicians specifically made this possible with candidates like George W. Bush, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum, et al. They're told constantly 24/7 how screwed up things are by Fox & RW radio, told to disrespect and obstruct the sitting POTUS, and are just plain sore losers if they don't get their way. Even if this is a protest vote, it shows just how little they think of their government and their country. Instead of doing the hard work, and truly informing themselves, they cave to people preaching to their basest instincts. Shame on them. They are NOT patriots.
10
The concept of electability is subjective and dynamic.Pundits,however,thought it was static.
12
This is hogwash, nobody recalls who won Iowa or NH. Nobody recalls Rubio flubbing a debate. What people recall is that Trump stands his ground and aggressively condemns the weakness of his opponents. He hit hard, & never acted like he had been listening to advisors telling him how to behave. When angry voters look for a leader, they want toughness and believability. Trump displayed those traits remarkably well. This is why the details of policy did not matter. Voters believe Trump will act, period.
Angry voters want a John Wayne to show up and start shooting the place up. They want an airstrike. Trump delivered.
Angry voters want a John Wayne to show up and start shooting the place up. They want an airstrike. Trump delivered.
14
Trump's ascendancy is one of the lowest points in American history.
6
You didn't get anything wrong about your interpretation of the Donald. You only misjudged the size of the voting block of Americans who would throw their vote his way. Who would have thought W would be a g'vrnor, let alone a President and for two terms!!!? Hopefully, Trump is smart enough not to have Cheney, the other Donald, Wolfie, Rice or those other vulcans as advisers.
7
One of the largest factors not mentioned is the woeful dumbing down of the electorate. The democratization of "news" and the relative scarcity of real journalism against an ever-widening backdrop of faux news is having a disastrous effect on our society. When I hear what passes for facts from so many people, it is like a crumbling dam. Incestuous sources and the repetition of bald-faced lies has become a never-ending onslaught. While we refer to this as "the media", it is anything but news.
Trump's single biggest strength is that he is the ultimate snake oil salesman. It's well past the time that we start dealing with this very fact.
Trump's single biggest strength is that he is the ultimate snake oil salesman. It's well past the time that we start dealing with this very fact.
11
The only people that got anything wrong about Donald Trump are the billionaire Republican donors who thought that trying to rig the system with their billions would "trump" the average Americans' votes and the money-grubbing Republican politicians that are in their pockets, falling all over themselves to get the donor's money.
The Republican Party was taken over by the ultra-wealthy Republican/Libertarians, and we all know who they are. It's time the little people took their country back.
The Republican Party was taken over by the ultra-wealthy Republican/Libertarians, and we all know who they are. It's time the little people took their country back.
10
Trump supporters say that the reason they love him is that they're "mad". They don't know the meaning of the word. If Trump is elected, the world will know that America has gone stark, raving, mad and gone and elected itself a megalomaniac to the highest office in the land.
6
Meh. Too early to tell. Your colleague Mr Douthat wrote on 4/28 that Mr Trump has won about 10 million votes up to then, out of 125 votes in the 2012 general election. That's like 8% of the general.
The highlight on Mr Trump is like the highlight on Senator Sanders after he won ID, UT, AL, HI, WA, WI, and WY. Yes it was impressive he won the 7 states in a row, but then Secretary Clinton subsequently won NY, which has more delegates than all those 7 states combined.
Mr Trump did well in a small subsection of the American electorate. I'm not sure that translates to doing well in a much larger competition.
The highlight on Mr Trump is like the highlight on Senator Sanders after he won ID, UT, AL, HI, WA, WI, and WY. Yes it was impressive he won the 7 states in a row, but then Secretary Clinton subsequently won NY, which has more delegates than all those 7 states combined.
Mr Trump did well in a small subsection of the American electorate. I'm not sure that translates to doing well in a much larger competition.
1
Trump seems like a case of the Emperor's new clothes.
Grossly imbalanced trade and currency manipulation?
Training your replacement with a worker on some terrible visa?
Laws motivating US companies to send jobs over seas?
Firms doing inversions to avoid tax?
Giant healthcare costs?
Lobbying out of control?
Instead congress and the supreme court worry about who uses which toilet, gay marriage, and smoking marijuana.
Grossly imbalanced trade and currency manipulation?
Training your replacement with a worker on some terrible visa?
Laws motivating US companies to send jobs over seas?
Firms doing inversions to avoid tax?
Giant healthcare costs?
Lobbying out of control?
Instead congress and the supreme court worry about who uses which toilet, gay marriage, and smoking marijuana.
23
Ah, the ole bumper car theory of power where all the smart guys ignore the ignoramous knocking each other off. The Robert Graves book "I, Claudius" plays along those line where a complete half wit becomes emperor, and a good one at that, as it actually turned out.
4
Trump should pick Condoleezza Rice for his vice president running mate.
7
That is really a lot to get wrong, especially if you are a high paid pundit. You should really get out and travel more. Especially to those parts of the country that elites label "fly over country". I am always reminded of James Dickey's author of Deliverance comment about in America that there is nothing meaner in then a redneck and there are plenty of them out there. If you had sat in rural bars and listened to the drift of conversations you would have recognized that a potential for a Trump always existed for them. Add to that the gutting of the manufacturing base and the justifiable anger of the blue collar workers and you have the hot air blast that is pushing Trump forward. A wealthy women who lived in the silk stocking district of New York once expressed shock that Nixon beat McGovern in a landslide. Her comment was that she knew of no one who voted for him. If Nate, you are going to cover national elections and act as a pundit it is important that you rub shoulders with all the people.
15
Dear NYT: Never been enthusiastic about journalism and research/analysis being mixed together, and I think The Upshot confuses readers who may not understand the difference between the work of a prestigious newsroom and an "expert" blog of little repute (sorry if that sounds mean). At the least designate it as a recurring ("expert") opinion column, and put the writers' credentials and affiliations BEFORE the content, every time. Say that Nate Cohn is a data analyst employed by NYT to model and predict elections. And while election analysis may be something that NYT likes to have in house, in general I think the NYT would better maintain a reputation by replacing The Upshot with a recurring opinion column/section for outside, expert contributors. It's not as if the NYT is a research institute.
6
All these complicated explanations. How about one very simple one – he was the only one to speak out against the massive illegal immigration.
Now onen can go through all the comments and find reams of clips saying how immigrants are being used as scapegoats and really don’t impact ordinary working people, but you should ask yourself is it true?
11 million illegal immigrants is a large number. There were also 3 million illegal immigrants legalized under Reagan in 1986. When you add that to those let in legally that is about 20 million immigrants from Mexico – ALONE!
A recent NY Times study said that many of these people were the prime beneficiaries of the Affordable Care Act. So the question I have is just how many immigrants are we suppose to take in before liberals say hey maybe it is impacting peoples lives.
It is simple truths like that, that propelled Trump. We no more want a right wing Scalia type Supreme court nominee, than we do a Cruz for President.
We want common sense. Right now it seems common sense is not so common. If Trump can resist the urge to fall in line to the right wing of the Republican party he’ll continue to do well. Otherwise forget it.
Now onen can go through all the comments and find reams of clips saying how immigrants are being used as scapegoats and really don’t impact ordinary working people, but you should ask yourself is it true?
11 million illegal immigrants is a large number. There were also 3 million illegal immigrants legalized under Reagan in 1986. When you add that to those let in legally that is about 20 million immigrants from Mexico – ALONE!
A recent NY Times study said that many of these people were the prime beneficiaries of the Affordable Care Act. So the question I have is just how many immigrants are we suppose to take in before liberals say hey maybe it is impacting peoples lives.
It is simple truths like that, that propelled Trump. We no more want a right wing Scalia type Supreme court nominee, than we do a Cruz for President.
We want common sense. Right now it seems common sense is not so common. If Trump can resist the urge to fall in line to the right wing of the Republican party he’ll continue to do well. Otherwise forget it.
19
The problem with the Gay Politically Correct Media is that they lack common sense. These members of the Gay Politically Correct Media think they can win a Streetfight by just bringing their brain against someone who is carrying a weapon and doesn't play by the rules. What do you call someone with a gun? Sir!
1
I feel like these personal analysis pieces should not be published by the NYT anymore. It's almost satirical how Nate got this wrong while many of us not publishing on the NYT foresaw this outcome as highly plausible. It truly says something about the insularity of the thinkers the NYT gives voice to, that they could be so incredibly wrong, almost as on queue. Not to insinuate complicity with any darker forces. But there truly needs to be heightened clarity in the process of the NYT of it wants to continue to be read an taken seriously.
22
People being upset about lost jobs and lost homes explains Sanders. It does not explain Trump. Trump is the most obvious conman ever to run for president. He is about as close to being a bankster as you can get without having the smarts to actually work on wall street. The only thing that explains Trump is a failure of our educational system in this country.
8
Aren't we all pitiful, to even waste minutes to read about this joke of a man, yet such a bad joke-person? I wish we all could turn our focus on real politics, something more meaningful for the American people and hence for us oarund you!
4
Nate Cohn was wrong on nearly every closely contested Senate race in 2014. The Democratic Party used these overly optimistic forecasts to raise money via E-mail. That Mr. Cohn still has credibility is amazing to me.
14
"Was this phenomenon impossible to foresee, our analyst asks, or did we miss important clues?"
Perhaps that the American people are enraged at our politicians and bosses, who continue to repeat the mantra that more immigration (one million+ every year) will bring prosperity to all (as if importing even more poor people has ever done that) and that anyone who disagrees with this is racist and xenophobic and a Fascist too?
I cannot bring myself to vote for Trump (for obvious reasons), but the cluelessness of Liberals and their complete disinterest in the suffering of the American people, while they have endless compassion and funds for immigrants and refugees, makes it tempting.
Perhaps that the American people are enraged at our politicians and bosses, who continue to repeat the mantra that more immigration (one million+ every year) will bring prosperity to all (as if importing even more poor people has ever done that) and that anyone who disagrees with this is racist and xenophobic and a Fascist too?
I cannot bring myself to vote for Trump (for obvious reasons), but the cluelessness of Liberals and their complete disinterest in the suffering of the American people, while they have endless compassion and funds for immigrants and refugees, makes it tempting.
18
You, and so many other pundits missed it because it is really simple. People are fed up with the existing Republican politicians whose "NO" has gotten us into this mess of non-government by stalemate. So why not support a "dictator" who will do this, do that, do another thing, and it will be done. And by the way, he is doing it for me, the guy whose job has been lost due trade treaties and illegals, and whose wages are stagnant.
15
I cannot speak for others, but I overestimated either (a) the competence of Trump's Republican competition, or (b) the intelligence of Republican voters. Both should have been easily avoidable errors.
I am hoping against hope that I am not overestimating the intelligence of American voters in the general election.
I am hoping against hope that I am not overestimating the intelligence of American voters in the general election.
7
Trump won by default. The other sixteen candidates were either mediocre or downright incompetent. Not one had the leadership skills or rational policies to be able to win the presidency. The GOP needs to rethink its agenda and then develop candidates who can appeal to the mainstream voter. That means the GOP needs to stop using wedge issues which only divide the electorate and distract from the fact that Republicans have no plan to govern.
14
I believe that in supporting Trump, Republican primary voters are actually voting against the policies delivered up by a Republican party that is held in the thrall of a small group of ultra-weathly donors. Republican economic policies completely align with agenda of the oligarchy while delivering nothing to the typical Trump supporter. If that is true then the most effective thing those voters can do is to vote for Democrats for President, Senate and House.
6
It is not your fault Nate. No one anticipated Trump's success including Trump himself. It was supposed to be just another Trump Brand marketing campaign.
We can all appreciate the stress and anger that many feel given the incredible political power wielded by the 0.1%. through massive lobbying and a highly distorted electoral process.
What no one could predict was the complete inability of so many of our citizens to see through the smoke and mirrors that the Donald employs. No one could have predicted the huge success of his massive con game. Trump is not a friend of the little guy, he has contempt for them. But Trump turns out to be a brilliant snake oil salesman. His completely fraudulent pitch "I am a self-made billionaire who is going to fight the establishment and defend you poor working white guys" is so appealing that his enthralled audience has no clue that they are merely pawns in his personal power game.
We are witnessing a perfect storm. We are witnessing the intersection the desperation of millions in the face of a government paralyzed by sworn Republican obstructionism with a modern day PT Barnum con artist of enormous skill.
That was a hard call indeed. Apologies are not required, just a serious investigative journalistic effort which will somehow, some way, reveal to the man on the street that Trump will rip them off in ways that they cannot even begin to imagine.
We can all appreciate the stress and anger that many feel given the incredible political power wielded by the 0.1%. through massive lobbying and a highly distorted electoral process.
What no one could predict was the complete inability of so many of our citizens to see through the smoke and mirrors that the Donald employs. No one could have predicted the huge success of his massive con game. Trump is not a friend of the little guy, he has contempt for them. But Trump turns out to be a brilliant snake oil salesman. His completely fraudulent pitch "I am a self-made billionaire who is going to fight the establishment and defend you poor working white guys" is so appealing that his enthralled audience has no clue that they are merely pawns in his personal power game.
We are witnessing a perfect storm. We are witnessing the intersection the desperation of millions in the face of a government paralyzed by sworn Republican obstructionism with a modern day PT Barnum con artist of enormous skill.
That was a hard call indeed. Apologies are not required, just a serious investigative journalistic effort which will somehow, some way, reveal to the man on the street that Trump will rip them off in ways that they cannot even begin to imagine.
17
Don't beat yourself up, Nate. The republican establishment was caught off guard, too. They created the anger against the government among their constituents then did nothing to help those who felt abandoned. Preventing Obama from any legislative success - most of which would've helped their constituents - apparently was more important. No wonder Trump is seen as a savior to those voters.
12
"I did not expect that the party would cede its biggest prize to an outsider who had so many dissenting policy views and who faced so many questions about his fitness for the presidency."
In a nutshell, political cravenness with more than a dash of sheer opportunism, and a fair representation of what the Republican party has become. Watch now the lemmings fall into place as the little Trumpoleon moves towards his Austerlitz before getting Waterlooed, and see the Jacobin class vanish in the wilderness, hopefully for a long while.
Time to throw thirty plus years of inanity and start from the ground up, not quite tabula rasa because there are some valid things there, but close, very close. This was once a great party.
In a nutshell, political cravenness with more than a dash of sheer opportunism, and a fair representation of what the Republican party has become. Watch now the lemmings fall into place as the little Trumpoleon moves towards his Austerlitz before getting Waterlooed, and see the Jacobin class vanish in the wilderness, hopefully for a long while.
Time to throw thirty plus years of inanity and start from the ground up, not quite tabula rasa because there are some valid things there, but close, very close. This was once a great party.
3
Little Donald's weakness is around strong women whom he can't control.
Just as with Megyn Kelly's powerfully direct questioning at the debate, he reacts with an adolescent tantrum, spouting vile filth with little control over himself. He turns into a crybaby.
I think this is the sweet spot for Clinton. A male surrogate would not penetrate. A strong woman challenging him face to face in public is like kryptonite - he falls apart, emotionally.
I look forward to Megyn Kelly hosting the first debate between Hillary and Little Donald, a double-serving of the Woman Card.
Just as with Megyn Kelly's powerfully direct questioning at the debate, he reacts with an adolescent tantrum, spouting vile filth with little control over himself. He turns into a crybaby.
I think this is the sweet spot for Clinton. A male surrogate would not penetrate. A strong woman challenging him face to face in public is like kryptonite - he falls apart, emotionally.
I look forward to Megyn Kelly hosting the first debate between Hillary and Little Donald, a double-serving of the Woman Card.
13
Congress failed and still fails to appreciate how angry Republicans and Democrats are at their representatives' continued inability to address unemployment with for example infrastructure programs that would target middle class skilled and unskilled workers. Both Trump and Sanders are a reflection of that anger. All other candidates on the Republican side offered the same party line that has been voiced for years. Trump supporters have had enough of politicians' unfulfilled promises and have spoken.
27
Here is something that it different this time around, especially when considered against historical examples: control of the Republican party has passed to radio talkshow hosts, websites, Limbaugh and Fox Faked News (FFN). It started in a big way with Rush Limbaugh. He became a de facto spokesperson for the Republicans in the 1990s. They, the party, allowed and encouraged this to happen. Never before in American history has such a spokesperson had three hours a day on national radio to dominate the issues. Never before has such a sharply and at times erratic propagandist had such a national forum.
Starting in the late 1960s, the Republicans, viewing their losses and licking their wounds, came up with the idea that it was the news media causing their defeats. Goldwater wasn't just a poor candidate in '64, they believed he lost because he was trashed by the "eastern media". Then, the Republicans went overboard and, for the next four decades, set about making a counter-propaganda effort. The result is that presidents and presidential candidates don't set the agenda any more, media does.
The voices of the far right have been let loose upon America and they daily drum home the message that the country is in crisis, that nothing is going the way the right wing wants it to go and that problems, like immigration, are destroying the nation. Guess what? Millions of people hear and read this and believe it. The result is a radical "solution", Trump.
Doug Terry
Doug Terry
Starting in the late 1960s, the Republicans, viewing their losses and licking their wounds, came up with the idea that it was the news media causing their defeats. Goldwater wasn't just a poor candidate in '64, they believed he lost because he was trashed by the "eastern media". Then, the Republicans went overboard and, for the next four decades, set about making a counter-propaganda effort. The result is that presidents and presidential candidates don't set the agenda any more, media does.
The voices of the far right have been let loose upon America and they daily drum home the message that the country is in crisis, that nothing is going the way the right wing wants it to go and that problems, like immigration, are destroying the nation. Guess what? Millions of people hear and read this and believe it. The result is a radical "solution", Trump.
Doug Terry
Doug Terry
19
Trump very cleverly conducted his own focus group research by giving speeches. Lines that got big applause were repeated and refined at the next speech, and repeated. Lines that got little reaction, or negative reaction, were dropped in favor of trying something new.
It was incredibly simple, really. He observed his audience's reactions, and built his tweets and speeches that way, rather than repeating the same consultant-crafted, party-approved stump speech over and over.
It was incredibly simple, really. He observed his audience's reactions, and built his tweets and speeches that way, rather than repeating the same consultant-crafted, party-approved stump speech over and over.
13
Or, Nate, despite the fact that this time it's Donald Trump, you could have trusted the proven math of previous primaries that have shown, irrevocably, that no Republican candidate has New Hampshire and South Carolina and not been the Republican nominee.
Donald appears to be additional evidence of this conclusive observation. Some will argue that's not sound theory like E = mc 2, but it sure increasingly looks like it is.
Donald appears to be additional evidence of this conclusive observation. Some will argue that's not sound theory like E = mc 2, but it sure increasingly looks like it is.
9
I am currently reviewing resumes at my workplace, a corporate environment. I am shocked by the number of people with 4 year degrees who list such skills as 'providing customer service to customers' and 'Relation Shipbuilding'.
It is no wonder he has made it this far.
It is no wonder he has made it this far.
17
"Or did we simply underestimate Mr. Trump from the start? Did we discount him because we assumed that voters would never nominate a reality-TV star for president, let alone a provocateur with iconoclastic policy views like his? Did we put too much stock in “the party decides,” a theory about the role of party elites in influencing the outcome of the primary process?
The answer, as best I can tell, is all of the above."
You're still getting it wrong. Donald Trump got traction because he brought up and introduced issues of concern that NONE of the establishment, elite, media or professional prognosticators had on their radar, but the average citizen voter sure had on theirs.
And his repeatable simple messages/platform, projection of strength, take no prisoners attitude and overall outsider status made the rest possible.
Obama lost a lot of people's support (and the Democratic party by extension) when he couldn't project strength and safety after the Paris attacks. Hillary can't put together a message without pandering to every identity group. And none address issues that are of concern to the public, except with insincere lip service.
Nate, you weren't paying attention early on. It's that simple.
The answer, as best I can tell, is all of the above."
You're still getting it wrong. Donald Trump got traction because he brought up and introduced issues of concern that NONE of the establishment, elite, media or professional prognosticators had on their radar, but the average citizen voter sure had on theirs.
And his repeatable simple messages/platform, projection of strength, take no prisoners attitude and overall outsider status made the rest possible.
Obama lost a lot of people's support (and the Democratic party by extension) when he couldn't project strength and safety after the Paris attacks. Hillary can't put together a message without pandering to every identity group. And none address issues that are of concern to the public, except with insincere lip service.
Nate, you weren't paying attention early on. It's that simple.
26
I think part of what we're seeing is the result of decades of dumbing down Americans, so that Reality TV is their reality. These are the people who in past eras frequented side shows: they're not very bright, and they enjoy seeing freaks and freak shows. They love to see contestants belittled by Trump on Celebrity Apprentice, and they have brought that sensibility to the presidential election. Very, very sad, indeed, for the future of our democracy. It's exactly why the electoral college was constructed; because, the intelligent leadership of Thomas Jefferson and James Madison knew the danger of letting the masses determine important matters.
10
Another " bring back poll tests" commenter.
6
Good take on voters. But I would look more toward low information,less educated people who spend hours watching tv and losing grip on reality. And Trump played it perfectly, with the same way he did the Apprentice show, passing judgment on contestants until he got to the thing the viewers wanted to hear....."you're fired". Now they believe he can do the same as president, without understanding the interplay of congress, lobbyists, interest groups and other players with vested interest in government actions.
1
Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders ripped the mask off of Washigton politics. Everyone is paying attention now. The media at one time could influence voters, but no more. The New York Times and CNN have lost much credibility in this race for the White House. Your job is to investigate and report facts. But it has not been happening.
The people are now speaking from their own hearts and minds because they cannot trust you. So there explains the Trump victory. And the Bernie phenomenon. It isn't rocket science. They are trusting their own judgement.
The people are now speaking from their own hearts and minds because they cannot trust you. So there explains the Trump victory. And the Bernie phenomenon. It isn't rocket science. They are trusting their own judgement.
87
Bingo! Concise, insightful and accurate.
11
Janice, "they" aren't trusting judgment so much as their ignorance and hatred.
3
That's a very COY question! Or did we miss some clues as to who came out to greet us in the form of one Donald Trump? Well we sure must have and do you know why?
Reason why, is America and its killer culture has progressively lifted up as an idol the sociopathic and psychopathic macho males on the fringe of criminality who are outsiders of mainstream (that being the decent, law abiding, and compassionate citizens) we all want to be. Anyway we have what we've asked for, a man whose own family is wooden and rooted in a symbiotic pathology as parasitic to the host as the idol is to his worshipers.
Stone cold and unfeeling for the poor and downtrodden. The pathological absence of empathy; the unyielding drive to succeed: the recurrent inability to collaborate or commensurate: the overarching ambition to dominate and coerce; the dissociative proclivity to deny human bodily functions (particularly in women), and the cruel and hateful rejection of people of color--all these and more we will learn. Can't forget the criminal associations.
Here in C.A. the people are deeply concerned. No presidential candidate has even proclaimed thus. They are swept by the media and its upsurge in fear mongering (only an extension of the great white hunters of the north).
There is a chill in the air.
Human rights and social justice teeter in the balance.
Hillary looks so sweet, wholesome, and friendly these days.
We can't let 007 or Rambo run our nation. Simple as that.
Don't you think?
Reason why, is America and its killer culture has progressively lifted up as an idol the sociopathic and psychopathic macho males on the fringe of criminality who are outsiders of mainstream (that being the decent, law abiding, and compassionate citizens) we all want to be. Anyway we have what we've asked for, a man whose own family is wooden and rooted in a symbiotic pathology as parasitic to the host as the idol is to his worshipers.
Stone cold and unfeeling for the poor and downtrodden. The pathological absence of empathy; the unyielding drive to succeed: the recurrent inability to collaborate or commensurate: the overarching ambition to dominate and coerce; the dissociative proclivity to deny human bodily functions (particularly in women), and the cruel and hateful rejection of people of color--all these and more we will learn. Can't forget the criminal associations.
Here in C.A. the people are deeply concerned. No presidential candidate has even proclaimed thus. They are swept by the media and its upsurge in fear mongering (only an extension of the great white hunters of the north).
There is a chill in the air.
Human rights and social justice teeter in the balance.
Hillary looks so sweet, wholesome, and friendly these days.
We can't let 007 or Rambo run our nation. Simple as that.
Don't you think?
12
The thing everyone is missing to me is that we are still expecting a plurality takes all electoral voting system to be an accurate representation of the people. Before New York, Trump never got more than 50% of the vote. Was it accurate to say more people are voting against Trump than for him? Perhaps, but we really won't know unless we switch to ranked-choice voting or something other than plurality wins.
Sure you can say that the votes were mostly allocated in a proportional system but when you have as many candidates as the Republican's had, anyone could take away with the lead, especially under the myriad of delegate allocation rules by state.
Nate, I don't think you, me, or anyone else that thought everything we still think about him was necessarily wrong. I don't think the vast majority of American's want him to be President. But until we change the way we elect people that shows the preferences of voters more clearly - and allows us a realistic option if we don't like the two we are given, then this sort of thing will happen again and our elections will continue not representing the real will of the people.
Sure you can say that the votes were mostly allocated in a proportional system but when you have as many candidates as the Republican's had, anyone could take away with the lead, especially under the myriad of delegate allocation rules by state.
Nate, I don't think you, me, or anyone else that thought everything we still think about him was necessarily wrong. I don't think the vast majority of American's want him to be President. But until we change the way we elect people that shows the preferences of voters more clearly - and allows us a realistic option if we don't like the two we are given, then this sort of thing will happen again and our elections will continue not representing the real will of the people.
4
The media's attention and the GOP failure to govern made Trump possible. Rather than working with Obama to make America a better place the GOP stonewalled him. The Democrats didn't support Obama the way they should have but that's been their problem for years. The GOP fell in behind their leadership (who have not served them or us well) and refused to do their jobs. We didn't elect any of our senators or representatives not to work for us. The past 7 years have been a standoff which has hurt average Americans. The GOP myth about trickle down economics, starving the government (except when it comes to their salaries), and the benefits of unfettered capitalism for all but their large donors has finally bit them.
No CEO deserves a multimillion dollar salary/perks package. No person who works a full time job deserves to be told how to apply for food stamps because the job doesn't pay enough. Walmart should be severely penalized for what it does with its employees that way. So should Disney. No one should have to go to college to earn a middle class life. We should have a first class educational (K-12)system. We should have a first class transportation infrastructure. After all, we're told that we're a rich first world country. It's about time we started acting like one. If we had politicians thinking of what's best for all Americans Trump might not have gotten this far.
No CEO deserves a multimillion dollar salary/perks package. No person who works a full time job deserves to be told how to apply for food stamps because the job doesn't pay enough. Walmart should be severely penalized for what it does with its employees that way. So should Disney. No one should have to go to college to earn a middle class life. We should have a first class educational (K-12)system. We should have a first class transportation infrastructure. After all, we're told that we're a rich first world country. It's about time we started acting like one. If we had politicians thinking of what's best for all Americans Trump might not have gotten this far.
55
It's not just the taxpayer funded salaries and pensions that the GOP pols are in favor of. It's also the legal bribery known as campaign contributions that has the GOP (and too many Dems) agog. How many members of Congress go home after they lose an election - either GOP or Dem? But it is the GOP who constantly preaches about how bad government as a whole is, and who are determined to prove it anytime they hold power.
3
Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican Nominee for a noteworthy reason: He appeals to a “hidden constituency” of Republican voters, and other voters also, who up to now have been overlooked by the Establishment, pollsters and the media. Whoever they are, we now know that are a lot of them, which ought to give everyone, including the Nominee himself, reason to pause.
Republicans and Democrats alike need to discover more about this emerging bloc, with pollsters and the media leading the way.
Why not begin by seeking answers to specific questions, on a strict, state by state basis—
For instance:
1. How many Trump supporters are there, state by state, and whereabouts do they live? City, town, or out in the county?
2. What are their circumstances, what do they do, and what are their goals and aspirations? How about their Religion?
3. What are their motives for supporting their candidate as a voting bloc, not just as individuals, on a state by state basis?
4. Why do they remain loyal, in spite of Trump’s rather meager qualifications, by political standards, and arguably poor performance in public?
5. How are those who didn’t vote for Trump going to vote, if at all, in the general election?
Trump’s emergence as a national candidate demonstrates beyond a doubt that America’s voting demography has changed significantly. It would be good to know exactly how and why.
Republicans and Democrats alike need to discover more about this emerging bloc, with pollsters and the media leading the way.
Why not begin by seeking answers to specific questions, on a strict, state by state basis—
For instance:
1. How many Trump supporters are there, state by state, and whereabouts do they live? City, town, or out in the county?
2. What are their circumstances, what do they do, and what are their goals and aspirations? How about their Religion?
3. What are their motives for supporting their candidate as a voting bloc, not just as individuals, on a state by state basis?
4. Why do they remain loyal, in spite of Trump’s rather meager qualifications, by political standards, and arguably poor performance in public?
5. How are those who didn’t vote for Trump going to vote, if at all, in the general election?
Trump’s emergence as a national candidate demonstrates beyond a doubt that America’s voting demography has changed significantly. It would be good to know exactly how and why.
8
The people are wiser now thanks to Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Young and old alike have been educated as to who has been selling them down the river and selling the farm out from under them. Trump put his money where his mouth is and Bernie invited those who are interested to help fund him.
The real question you should be asking is why would anyone vote for "more of the same HRC"? And no, I have never watched Apprentice or whatever reality shows are referenced in the column.
The real question you should be asking is why would anyone vote for "more of the same HRC"? And no, I have never watched Apprentice or whatever reality shows are referenced in the column.
7
Now the media is having a mea culpa moment.
Not only were they not able to shape outcomes.
They had total contempt for the voters in the process.
Giving almost zero coverage to Sanders they echoed Clinton's "I'm too important to utter his name".
They also dismissed Trump as an entertainer.
With the above being said, the Democratic Party, The Republican Party and the partisan media have made themselves irrelevant.
Not only were they not able to shape outcomes.
They had total contempt for the voters in the process.
Giving almost zero coverage to Sanders they echoed Clinton's "I'm too important to utter his name".
They also dismissed Trump as an entertainer.
With the above being said, the Democratic Party, The Republican Party and the partisan media have made themselves irrelevant.
33
This is an easy one to answer. You missed the important clues!!!! --
Underestimating the pulse of the American electorate is a very easy thing to do when you surround yourself with like, or similar thinkers, while ensconced in a comfortable Fifth-Estate bubble.
Like it or not, Trump, through his over-sized ego, mastery of Showmanship, and tendency to blurt out anything that comes into his head, has managed to strike the mother-lode of the American psyche that craves money, power and instant gratification.
Given that, many have been willing, and/or eager to overlook the fact that Donald Trump is not only crass, but spectacularly unprepared to be the President of the United States.
Aside from the petty tiffs and insults he has traded with just about everyone, lies the fact that Trump at heart, is nothing more than a bully -- and there are already too many of them on the world stage.
All that to say this, if you want to correctly diagnose a patient (or an election), it helps to speak with them first.
Underestimating the pulse of the American electorate is a very easy thing to do when you surround yourself with like, or similar thinkers, while ensconced in a comfortable Fifth-Estate bubble.
Like it or not, Trump, through his over-sized ego, mastery of Showmanship, and tendency to blurt out anything that comes into his head, has managed to strike the mother-lode of the American psyche that craves money, power and instant gratification.
Given that, many have been willing, and/or eager to overlook the fact that Donald Trump is not only crass, but spectacularly unprepared to be the President of the United States.
Aside from the petty tiffs and insults he has traded with just about everyone, lies the fact that Trump at heart, is nothing more than a bully -- and there are already too many of them on the world stage.
All that to say this, if you want to correctly diagnose a patient (or an election), it helps to speak with them first.
7
At the end of the day, we all underestimated the amount of ignorant racists, homophobes, xenophobes, and misogynists there are in the GOP. Also don't forget the incredibly weak competition that emerged from the republican clown car.
18
If only Democrats would recognize that it is their own intolerance of any differing opinion that is helping Trump's cause.
Could the Left just once look at the actual facts of an issue (e.g. trade policies, immigration, etc.) without immediately jumping into attack mode and making everything a partisan issue framed in a "dumb deluded racist white Republicans" vs "educated sophisticated enlightened Democrats" mindset?
From the majority of the comments here, it appears not.
Could the Left just once look at the actual facts of an issue (e.g. trade policies, immigration, etc.) without immediately jumping into attack mode and making everything a partisan issue framed in a "dumb deluded racist white Republicans" vs "educated sophisticated enlightened Democrats" mindset?
From the majority of the comments here, it appears not.
13
A perfect storm, the culmination of several factors, was created to provide the opportunity for a demagogue---fear and anxiety fed by right wing media and politicians, economic stagnation and loss of jobs among the working class, a government controlled by big money and big corporations and, not the least, exposure of racism and bigotry, the ugly, dark underbelly of this nation. It was not Trump who was underestimated. It was a failure to give adequate credence to these factors
13
This article is interesting but still misses the point, making me think that the author still doesn't really understand Trump or his appeal. His supporters voted for him because of who he is and his policies. He did not just benefit from a perfect storm of circumstances. He is a colorful character, comes over as honest and like-able, says a lot of things that his supporters agree with but go unsaid by most politicians and he has a clear agenda and set of policies. This was all evident from the beginning, for those who could look at the situation without the burden of precedent. Until political professionals and commentators start getting this they will fail to appreciate the Trump phenomenon and continue to underestimate him.
19
Re: "...comes over as honest and like-able, "
How in the world is being a mean mouthed bully likeable?
How in the world is being a mean mouthed bully likeable?
17
You're missing the point. It's not about DT's likability - it's about the issues he brought up. No other candidate did. And other than Bernie, the entire establishment of politicians, media and elites don't understand that voters are fed up and will go with the imperfect candidate who will 1) understand the issues of concern to voters 2) act to change them.
Voters perceive he's the only candidate to be honest about those issues since he brought them up. And Hillary by comparison has no message, no understanding that identity politics that she is playing is not going to get her lots of votes. Same with the Republican candidates that weren't Trump.
This is a change election. The only ones really qualified to change a broken system are Trump and Bernie.
Voters perceive he's the only candidate to be honest about those issues since he brought them up. And Hillary by comparison has no message, no understanding that identity politics that she is playing is not going to get her lots of votes. Same with the Republican candidates that weren't Trump.
This is a change election. The only ones really qualified to change a broken system are Trump and Bernie.
19
Voters are angry about their stagnant or falling wages. Trump doesn't believe in a higher minimum wage so I don't understand his populist appeal. Trump is good buddies with at least one corporate raider who would have no empathy for the plight of the working person.
I understand why Sanders' message appeals. Trump's no!
I understand why Sanders' message appeals. Trump's no!
5
In this election Trump represents the Extreme Right and Clinton represents the Right. No real choice for the independent-minded economic liberals/progressives. Leaders like Elizabeth Warren, Sharod Brown, Jeff Merkley and others could fall behind Sanders and give some competition to Trump and Clinton. Some say this will ensure Trump's election. There is this risk, but if Sander's rallies and fund raising are any guide, it may be worth taking this risk. These are risky times!.
10
If we Americans want to select among the best in our presidential elections, we'll get rid of the political party system. Instead we need national primaries, perhaps in 2 or 3 stages, in which everybody votes on the same day from the same candidate pool, without regard to voter or candidate party affiliation.
Here's a suggestion:
Stage 1 national primary: A candidate qualifies for this primary by getting signatures, in any 10 states, amounting to 1% of the number of votes cast in that state in the last presidential election.
Stage 2 followup national primary, coming 3 months after stage 1 primary: A candidate qualifies for this primary by getting 25% or more of the votes cast nationally in the stage 1 primary. If fewer than 3 candidates get the 25%, then the top 4 candidates from stage 1 go to stage 2.
Presidential election, coming 6 months after stage 2 primary: Any candidate from stage 2 who earned 33% is in the final presidential election. If less than 2 earned 33%, then the top 3 move on to this final presidential election, won by the candidate with the national majority.
Runoff presidential election, coming 30 days after the above presidential election, if no candidate in presidential election gets a national majority: The top 2 candidates qualify for this runoff.
While we're getting rid of the political parties, let's get rid of the electoral college, too. It's one person, one vote.
Here's a suggestion:
Stage 1 national primary: A candidate qualifies for this primary by getting signatures, in any 10 states, amounting to 1% of the number of votes cast in that state in the last presidential election.
Stage 2 followup national primary, coming 3 months after stage 1 primary: A candidate qualifies for this primary by getting 25% or more of the votes cast nationally in the stage 1 primary. If fewer than 3 candidates get the 25%, then the top 4 candidates from stage 1 go to stage 2.
Presidential election, coming 6 months after stage 2 primary: Any candidate from stage 2 who earned 33% is in the final presidential election. If less than 2 earned 33%, then the top 3 move on to this final presidential election, won by the candidate with the national majority.
Runoff presidential election, coming 30 days after the above presidential election, if no candidate in presidential election gets a national majority: The top 2 candidates qualify for this runoff.
While we're getting rid of the political parties, let's get rid of the electoral college, too. It's one person, one vote.
5
What's really fascinating about this is that even as this article admits gross errors in evaluating Trump's candidacy, a blaring headline on the front page of the website starts the whole process over again, announcing that Trump can't possibly win the presidency. Even though Trump's rival, Clinton, lost in Indiana while Trump won in a landslide (crushing two rivals, not just one), many seem just as sure that Trump can't beat Clinton as they were that he could not win the Republican nomination. They are sure even though they know that Clinton is one of the most reviled and polarizing figures in modern political history.
How ironic!
How ironic!
25
The fact that Trump won in a supposed landslide means nothing against Hillary. It has to do with the other bland and uninspiring candidates he was up against. It doesn't take anyone particularly special to win against someone that most other politicians can't stand.
Clinton has so far won more primary votes than Trump. People need to stop assuming that just because Trump won handily in his primaries that most people are for him. They are not.
Clinton has so far won more primary votes than Trump. People need to stop assuming that just because Trump won handily in his primaries that most people are for him. They are not.
Nate’s retrospective analysis misses the mark as much as his various predictions during the course of the primary season did.
Trump won for one basic reason: This is America where it has been increasingly clear that our country has been hijacked by a kleptocracy who have been looting from ordinary Americans with the assistance of our bought and paid politicians.
Trump offered ordinary Americans the possibility of breaking the stranglehold of the kleptocracy and their corrupt bought and paid politicians. And Americans have embraced that possibility with gusto.
It is precisely for the above reason that Trump will be our next President assuming that the ruling kleptocracy do not permanently eliminate him in the coming months.
Trump won for one basic reason: This is America where it has been increasingly clear that our country has been hijacked by a kleptocracy who have been looting from ordinary Americans with the assistance of our bought and paid politicians.
Trump offered ordinary Americans the possibility of breaking the stranglehold of the kleptocracy and their corrupt bought and paid politicians. And Americans have embraced that possibility with gusto.
It is precisely for the above reason that Trump will be our next President assuming that the ruling kleptocracy do not permanently eliminate him in the coming months.
35
Especially because he had the same dismissive attitude toward the Sander's candidacy to the extent that they pulled him off of the coverage because of the outraged comments. All around, Cohen's conventional wisdom predictions had little use in this newspaper on either side.
3
But I think we need to thank The Donald (and Bernie!) for their contributions to identifying the complaints of the disaffected. Otherwise, it would have been business as usual. Signed, a Bernie supporter.
26
Mr. Trump has exposed the unpleasant cultural underbelly of America - the fact that many people have sexist, racist, and ant-immigrant views. These views are exacerbated due to the decline in economic circumstances that many middle class people have experienced over the past 20 years. People are angry, and rightly so. They are therefore grasping at someone who tells them it will all be great - immigrants will be expelled, companies punished, globalization reversed. Unfortunately, Mr. Trump will have limited ability to make these things happen. Presidents propose, Congress approved and appropriates. The majority of those serving in Congress will be re-elected, and they will still be answerable to their money men. If Trump wins the Whitehouse, the next 4 years will be a trying time for our Republic.
22
The issue is not whether the media and the political establishments underestimated Donald Trump, it is that they underestimated the American people. Both the Trump and the Sanders candidacies reveal that what may prove ultimately to be a majority of the American people were nothing less than disgusted by a political establishment that mistook the popular discontent with President Obama's lukewarm attempts to improve their lot with their having given license to trash the American political system. The 2012 elections signaled popular discontent with the White House, but can fundamentally be seen as a cry for help. Instead, a combination of lazy indifference among Democrats and a shocking campaign by Republicans to employ militantly reactionary tactics not seen in this country since the years leading up to the Civil War became the hallmarks of the American political landscape. Americans are tired of being discounted, underestimated and taken for granted. We may not be Parisians or Athenians taking to the streets; perhaps, if anything, we are still naive in trusting in the power of the ballot box to register our discontent. At least for now.
9
People lost jobs and homes while the financial elite that engineered the crisis not only walked but increased their earnings.
Hence Sanders and Trump.
Hence Sanders and Trump.
102
It is misleading, deceptive, and condescending to repeatedly refer to Trump as a "reality-TV star for president". It is as much so as it was to refer to Obama as a "community organizer for president". Although both did the specified activities, those activities were definitely not the essence of their relevant backgrounds.
25
It was condescending to ignore that Obama had been in the Illinois State legislature and then the US Senate prior to running for president. In contrast, prior to running for president, Trump had been a real estate developer, businessman but most notably recently, a reality-TV star. No government experience and notwithstanding Romney's mantra that a businessman can "turn things around" in Government, running the Govt is NOT LIKE running a business.;
6
I am sorry but the smartest people, like Trump, go to business, not to Government. As a former TV journalist in the years prior to Obama's election we had daily feeds from Governors and Senators all over the country and it was a disgrace how mediocre and arrogant were most of them. Obama had been an exception, always stood out. So I respect both Obama's intellect and Trump's business acumen; it is much harder to build a billion dollar company coming from a small family business in Queens than it is to play it safe and have a government job all your life where you never put your own money on the line.
3
I think anger is being conflated with stupidity. Its entirely appropriate for voters to be angry. But to support Donald without knowing what he's going to do is frankly, stupid. Out goes the baby, the bathwater, everything.
32
So what's the alternative? What does Clinton have to offer angry voters? Or those of us who do know what *she's* going to do (mostly nothing), and don't like it?
6
I'm sure there are plenty of people who got things wrong about Trump, which is too bad, but plenty of us weren't fooled.
The man tapped into the mindset of the lowest common denominator in this country, just like he said he would do decades ago in that interview. What is there to possibly wonder about.
The man tapped into the mindset of the lowest common denominator in this country, just like he said he would do decades ago in that interview. What is there to possibly wonder about.
10
Guess what -- you can't really understand the dynamics of a race if have no clue as to the potency of the issues at stake. and don't factor them in.
No one could have a reason to see Trump's ascendancy if they had no idea that illegal immigration was so unpopular, or political correctness.
Of course no one at the Times could foresee how things might turn out. They couldn't imagine that these were powerful issues over which the public was positively steaming, and that what the public desperately sought was a spokesman for their frustrations.
Trump is a "black swan" if you come into these issues as naive as a newborn, and quite completely unsurprising if you have any sense of the public's pulse.
No one could have a reason to see Trump's ascendancy if they had no idea that illegal immigration was so unpopular, or political correctness.
Of course no one at the Times could foresee how things might turn out. They couldn't imagine that these were powerful issues over which the public was positively steaming, and that what the public desperately sought was a spokesman for their frustrations.
Trump is a "black swan" if you come into these issues as naive as a newborn, and quite completely unsurprising if you have any sense of the public's pulse.
23
Some of the public.
Iconoclastic policies?
I believed in the Abrahamic Ten Commandments found in the Baltimore Catechism -- 1885 to 1960 usages -- except for the shunning among the three major Abrahamic religions besides other monotheistic religions.
Since I was 5 whenever a playmate or classmate's father suffered arson, mayhem or murder I believed it was wrong without knowing the Fifth Commandment.
By seventh grade I knew journos, police, teachers and some parents misinterpreted the Fifth Commandment. Hannah Arrendt labeled this evil as the eradication of thought -- controversibly called "banality of radical evil".
http://www.baltimore-catechism.com/lesson33.htm
When contextualists fabricate parallel/underground/black de jure governments inside a textual de jure government false iconoclasticism can dominate.
Nate Cohn, thank you for inspiring me with your confession about evil.
I believed in the Abrahamic Ten Commandments found in the Baltimore Catechism -- 1885 to 1960 usages -- except for the shunning among the three major Abrahamic religions besides other monotheistic religions.
Since I was 5 whenever a playmate or classmate's father suffered arson, mayhem or murder I believed it was wrong without knowing the Fifth Commandment.
By seventh grade I knew journos, police, teachers and some parents misinterpreted the Fifth Commandment. Hannah Arrendt labeled this evil as the eradication of thought -- controversibly called "banality of radical evil".
http://www.baltimore-catechism.com/lesson33.htm
When contextualists fabricate parallel/underground/black de jure governments inside a textual de jure government false iconoclasticism can dominate.
Nate Cohn, thank you for inspiring me with your confession about evil.
2
I'm not sure I understand this comment but it is interesting.
3
You still don't get it. 50% of the population is in some sort of economic difficulty. The solution will be out of the box. Only one person is clearly an out of the box thinker. Everyone can see it. Its like the emperor has no cloths fable.
28
There is nothing new under the sun my friend. There was another "out of the box" thinker who proposed banning people based on their religious beliefs and protectionist trade policies to get his country's economy going and he also proposed military solutions to international problems. His country ended up bombed back to the stone age and half occupied by communists.
2
Don't miss, so to speak, the elephant in the room. Or lack of one. There simply were no remotely decent candidates. This current crop make Mitt and even W look good. Trump never would have gotten this far if there were an intelligent, honest alternative. The party has driven them all away.
17
Trump is a million times smarter than G.W.Bush.
5
OK, Nate, we don't blame you. But you owe us in the general.
2
If Trump were actually to win the Presidency, it would make his supporters' head spin how quickly he would fall into line. The man has no idea what the job would entail; it's not just making "deals".
13
Sorry. I didn't read that word anywhere in this column. I'm sorry too because this analysis failed to mention how disaffected Republicans chose another disaffected Republican to to be their candidate.
6
No you were wrong because you and the rest of the beltway don't get out to the small towns and cities where people are suffering. You don't get the anger. Free Trade benefited you and other 1% but not the 99% who will and did vote. Now reap the whirlwind.
52
In order to understand the success of Donal Trump, you first have to acknowledge how unhappy the voters are with Barack Obama's performance. Not an easy thing to do if you actually think Obama has done a great job with the economy and our foreign policy. Or if you think Obama's progressive agenda is actually popular with the majority of Americans. You think it's all about Donald Trump. The reality here is a significant portion of the voting population is completely fed up with the last 8 years and they want the absolute opposite of what Barack Obama represents. Remember that anger you felt in 2008 toward George Bush and Republicans? Now it's payback time against the progressive liberals that have hijacked our government.
18
Horsefeathers. The 8 years prior to Obama's presidency were horrible, with the last 8 a slow and painful return to where we were before W, thanks to an obstructionist congress. So much more could have been done. Voting for Trump not only shows misplaced anger, but ignorance. When will t he right finally admit their policies just don't work?
3
If Obama got nothing done, it's because of the Republican obstructionists, not him or for a lack of trying.
You are also over-estimating how much of the population thinks the way you do. Obama not only won the last two elections, and the popular vote, but Hillary has so far gotten 2 million more votes than Trump. He may have "won" in the twisted Republican party, but that is NOT the majority of voters.
Somehow, I think most Republicans will be as shocked this November as they were in November of 2012.
You are also over-estimating how much of the population thinks the way you do. Obama not only won the last two elections, and the popular vote, but Hillary has so far gotten 2 million more votes than Trump. He may have "won" in the twisted Republican party, but that is NOT the majority of voters.
Somehow, I think most Republicans will be as shocked this November as they were in November of 2012.
The polling numbers currently on the front page of the NYT indicate it's not a significant enough portion of the voting population to get Trump elected. So unless a bunch of people change their mind and decide to become as fed up as you suggest they currently are, payback time won't be anytime soon.
Trump campaign 2016...pure genius. They know that the media is all about sensationalism. Sensationalism sells. So be sensational and grab the media and get your message across at the same time. Its not rocket science.
9
People who believe Trump is a misogynist, racist, etc., have no clue about Trump. People like Cohn get Trump wrong because they understand those clueless people far better than they do anyone who actually understands Trump.
18
A man who says Yes, women would need to be punished for their own healthcare choices is a misogynist.
End of story.
24
Can you even imagine Ivanka being told by her father or anyone else in the GOP that she would be punished should she have the misfortune of being exposed to the Zika virus and choosing not to carry the fertilized egg to term? Can you even wrap your head around it.
2
No New Yorker believes this. Trump has merely trying to get the GOP litmus test enough to clinch the nomination. I am sure that punishing women for abortions would be his last thought once in the Oval Office.
6
Trump was the only one saying what lots of people were thinking…that tax funded illegal immigration of millions of welfare eligible, and corporate/politician collusion, destroying competition and its millions of jobs, as well as tax funded perpetual war were behind the continuously rising taxes, rising prices, compounding draconian regulations and crushing debt spending currently reducing America to a banana republic. What D.C.’s media sycophants actually got wrong, was they thought their propaganda had convinced everyone that the more money and power a population votes into the pockets of political slime, of either party, the more free and equal they’d all be.
28
Apparently, neither Mr. Cohn nor most of his fellow pundits, who wine and dine with the party elites, ever realized the massive measure of Republican voter disgruntlement about having been ignored by the political estabishment. Any candidate who identified as an anti-establisment candidate got their support. This simple factor in today's politics seems to escape the attention of Mr. Cohn. But it's precisely why the Donald does so well amongst the plethora of establishment candidates who tried to compete with him.
The political pundits need to wake up and smell the roses!
The political pundits need to wake up and smell the roses!
16
You guys could not and still fail to think outside the box. You just witnessed the greatest exhibition survivor ever played. HRC will be voted off the island.
35
Don't know you, but I think the self-analysis ignores the obvious: substance. Did you appreciate the anger at illegal immigration and trade deals among working class white R and I voters? I bet not. He grabbed BOTH those issues with pugnacity, no one else did, and that chunk of voters carried him in a field of 17.
23
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so."
You are still wrong about why you are wrong.
I voted for Obama in the last two elections and currently work for the Obama administration. But I will be voting for Trump. Why? Because I have seen the cronyism surrounded Obama's administration in the last few years. He may be a visionary individual, but he surrounds himself with opinionated "elites" that only see the world in one way, because they are all trained the same way. Clinton will likely continue with the same people. What we need is a leader who will build an administration staffed with people who came from various background. We don't need more Yale and Harvard lawyers running our country.
You also continue to portray Trump as misogynist and ultra conservative. But if you read the books that he has written in the past, and judge him by the way he runs his corporation and his actions over the last 30 years, it is clear that he is no sexist or misogynist or conservative. (in fact, washington post or some other major newspaper did an article about him in the 80s on how progressive he is about hiring women into his organization in a male-dominated industry).
You make a living by using statistics to make predictions. Yet you commit once of the biggest problems in statistics or econometrics -- measurement errors (thinking that what politicians say are exactly what they are) and selection bias.
You are still wrong about why you are wrong.
I voted for Obama in the last two elections and currently work for the Obama administration. But I will be voting for Trump. Why? Because I have seen the cronyism surrounded Obama's administration in the last few years. He may be a visionary individual, but he surrounds himself with opinionated "elites" that only see the world in one way, because they are all trained the same way. Clinton will likely continue with the same people. What we need is a leader who will build an administration staffed with people who came from various background. We don't need more Yale and Harvard lawyers running our country.
You also continue to portray Trump as misogynist and ultra conservative. But if you read the books that he has written in the past, and judge him by the way he runs his corporation and his actions over the last 30 years, it is clear that he is no sexist or misogynist or conservative. (in fact, washington post or some other major newspaper did an article about him in the 80s on how progressive he is about hiring women into his organization in a male-dominated industry).
You make a living by using statistics to make predictions. Yet you commit once of the biggest problems in statistics or econometrics -- measurement errors (thinking that what politicians say are exactly what they are) and selection bias.
24
Nonetheless, it happened and Mr Trump will become the nominee. The question is: Trump or Clinton , which of these two seriously flawed candidates will get my vote or yours. How did we get here? Obviously the two major parties can no longer be trusted with candidate selection. What sort of efficient and tamper proof mechanism can be put in place to avoid a repetition of this calamity? Can it be done to take effect in time for the 2024 election? It must be in effect for the 2028 election. Both major parties have proven that they cannot choose and vet candidates for the highest office in the land and frankly not for significant state offices either. Pity, but absolutely true!
11
Yes, completely agree.
The left needs an alternative to the Democratic Party, which has drifted so far the the right that it no longer represents the poor, the working and middle classes. The Green Party deserves a serious look by liberals as an alternative to the Democratic Party.
The left needs an alternative to the Democratic Party, which has drifted so far the the right that it no longer represents the poor, the working and middle classes. The Green Party deserves a serious look by liberals as an alternative to the Democratic Party.
17
I think that many were still thinking about the Romney loss and believe that a businessperson is the right call for the job. So regardless of his terrible personal rhetoric, and personal history, some see him as the right person for the job, as he is not just another politician, but, wait, he might just be another politician, and not do what he has promised. Then it will not be, " Lyin Ted," but lying Donald!
3
The people of Michigan thought they wanted an "outsider" businessperson too, when Snyder ran for governor, and you can see where that has gotten us. People need to wake up. Businesspeople are crooked and only care about the bottom line of the wealthy. They have no business running a country.
2
Trump rose because of the anger of average Americans being left behind as the rich grow ever richer, combined with the huge backlash of anger certain white men feel about the country having elected a black president. In both Trump and Sanders' popularity I clearly see the frustration of white middle-class males who are losing their grip on what was historically their privileged place in American society. On the me hand you have that anger expressed by insane promises to keep everyone else out by building walls and stopping immigration in order to put the rest of the world "back in its place," and on the other a call for the wealthy to start paying their fair share so white middle class guys can move ahead again. On the third hand you have the first woman to have a clear shot at the presidency, the only one who's paying attention to women's rights ----and we make up the majority of the population. Everyone's angry, but perhaps women are finally angry enough to stop voting for the white guys who make sure other white guys keep their "rightful place." I really see the whole race this year as progressive vs. regressive, with white men making a last gasp effort to keep hold of their power whilethe rest of us are finally ready to move into the future. I hope Hillary keeps our priorities foremost when she becomes POTUS, because if the rich keep getting richer under her presidency I see a revolution happening...and I fear it won't be peaceful.
27
Maybe you and the media underestimated how covering a single candidate, including every word and gesture he uttered from the minute he announced until now, would actually encourage his popularity.
48
Nate, you're a kid. You have not tasted or smelled or listened to all of the U.S. --not even close in your young life. Of course you got it wrong. And while you got it wrong, you blindly followed the Liberal Establishment (that has always wanted Clinton and will probably get her) away from Sanders who, for the first time in my life (66), actually bucked the NYT/Wall Street/Ivy League/Big Oil/West Point/Annapolis/Pentagon elite and excited moms and dads and their children around the nation "who get up every morning, go to work and take care their kids--the only real heroes in this country--Spencer Haywood, Seattle Super Sonic in response to question from Seattle sports press: "...Spencer, tell us, how does it feel to be a hero to the kids of Seattle?"
Dry yourself behind your ears Nathan, before you attempt political analysis.
Dry yourself behind your ears Nathan, before you attempt political analysis.
52
There is, of course, a simpler explanation.
Republicans flat-out liked what they heard from Mr. Trump. They like the idea of discriminating against people based on religion and ethnicity to the point that they are willing to overlook everything else.
Republicans flat-out liked what they heard from Mr. Trump. They like the idea of discriminating against people based on religion and ethnicity to the point that they are willing to overlook everything else.
17
Exactly. In their world, "political correctness" means, "I want to be as offensive as possible and say whatever I want".
I wonder if they consider being called "low information voters" not being politically correct.
I wonder if they consider being called "low information voters" not being politically correct.
9
It would have been better to have asked: "What everyone got wrong about Mr. Trump?". But I will make a forecast, and I am certain I will be right. This election will lead to hundreds of dissertations, even if Mr. Trump does not get the GOP nomination and does not win the presidency.
2
Really, "none of the above,” in Cohen’s piece, except maybe the “media coverage” aspect, hits the mark. The Donald is the product of a useless set of Republican competitors, away from whom disgruntled Party members turned to send a message. The message grew because of both celebrity status and media smarts that come naturally to Trump. No one knows what to do now.
7
Yes, Mr. Cohn, I think you and the other writers in the Times need to up your game and make predictions with 100% certainty. Then, maybe in four years or so, the Times can tell us all who the next President of the United States should be before anyone even announces his or her candidacy. That way we can all stay home and not even bother to vote. (You tried that strategy for this election with Clinton, but pesky Sanders supporters don't want to rely on your statistics alone and want to go out and vote, anyway. Silly us!)
15
What Nate Cohn neglects to mention is that Trump is a great salesman, a great showman. He is like a "Wizard of Oz". Perhaps the American people dream of a magical wizard in the White House, who can perform miracles.
But here is the scene in the Wizard of Oz when the dog Toto, uncovers the Wizard, behind the curtain: (2 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZR64EF3OpA
Watching this scene, I am thinking that Donald is about to be exposed for what he really is. Can he survive exposure? I think not, but only time will tell...
But here is the scene in the Wizard of Oz when the dog Toto, uncovers the Wizard, behind the curtain: (2 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZR64EF3OpA
Watching this scene, I am thinking that Donald is about to be exposed for what he really is. Can he survive exposure? I think not, but only time will tell...
6
I'll jump on the "blame the media" bandwagon. Nothing sells like simplistic outrageousness. Building the wall is simplistic and outrageous, but a reasoned explanation of why it won't work is a yawner. Deporting the undocumented 11 million immigrants is simplistic and outrageous. Citing the practical downsides and policy concerns sounds like my 8 a.m. History 101 class. Banning Muslims, simplistic; listing the cons, boring.
Having said that, I still haven't been able to wrap my head around the idea that Trump is anti-establishment. I even heard an NPR report on London's colorful mayor, Boris Johnson who was described by the correspondent as similar to Trump, but unlike Trump, part of the establishment (Eton and Oxford). Huh? Trump is the child of a multi-millionaire, attended a military prep school and Wharton Business School, and lives a life of unbridled entitlement. His only experience with the working class is ordering them around. Why so many believe he will be their savior is a mystery to me.
Clinton's challenge will be to keep Trump on the defensive. This is not easy when there's no political track record to attack. Trying to convince voters that your opponent's confidence is unwarranted could make you end up sounding like the weaker choice. Explaining the downside of shaking things up never goes over well, especially with voters who are getting very little out of the status quo. In other words, as a Clinton supporter, I'm worried.
Having said that, I still haven't been able to wrap my head around the idea that Trump is anti-establishment. I even heard an NPR report on London's colorful mayor, Boris Johnson who was described by the correspondent as similar to Trump, but unlike Trump, part of the establishment (Eton and Oxford). Huh? Trump is the child of a multi-millionaire, attended a military prep school and Wharton Business School, and lives a life of unbridled entitlement. His only experience with the working class is ordering them around. Why so many believe he will be their savior is a mystery to me.
Clinton's challenge will be to keep Trump on the defensive. This is not easy when there's no political track record to attack. Trying to convince voters that your opponent's confidence is unwarranted could make you end up sounding like the weaker choice. Explaining the downside of shaking things up never goes over well, especially with voters who are getting very little out of the status quo. In other words, as a Clinton supporter, I'm worried.
12
What you and all the other pundits got wrong is what you always get wrong. That is, believing your view of things is the same view as the rest of the population. Even today, the pundits are saying Clinton's going to run over Trump. That might happen but Trump's got his hand on the pulse of America and if he is able to get all of those people who don't ever vote, out to vote, he has a good chance. Both candidates are repulsive in the polls but the pollsters aren't polling the people who would put Trump in office. Hold on tight as the next 6 months are going to be ugly. But it'll be great TV which is what Trump really wanted all along. It's a win-win for him even if he loses the election.
24
Beside the chips falling for Trump, there are a number of Americans who are racist, vindictive, angry, mean spirited, misogynistic, anti-immigrant, and truly, deeply ignorant.
There aren’t enough of such as these to carry him to the White House, but they helped him get the nomination.
There aren’t enough of such as these to carry him to the White House, but they helped him get the nomination.
18
as part of the 99 percent, I resent that gross accusation and stereotype.
6
There are also, more unfortunately, a large number of Americans who will instantly call anyone who does not agree with every single facet of the Liberal party line "racist, vindictive, angry, mean spirited, misogynistic, anti-immigrant, and truly, deeply ignorant".
Name-calling is always so much easier than actually listening to other people's concerns.
Name-calling is always so much easier than actually listening to other people's concerns.
7
Trump's ascendancy is not a mystery. When you have almost 8 years of a political party in collusion with Fox News and other conservative propaganda organs incessantly demonizing the President, immigrants and other minorities, obstructing any and all attempts to alleviate the economic challenges of the 99%, distorting and obfuscating the accomplishments of one of the most talented presidents of modern times, and preaching 24/7 how the USA is in decline, you get the Tea Party and it's logical offspring Trump. That the Frankenstein monster is now threatening to destroy its creator could have been foretold by anyone who knows a little bit of Eastern Philosophy: it's called karma.If the religious hypocrites really paid attention to all of the Bible, not just the bits that support their prejudices, they would have pondered on the meaning of "as you sow so shall you reap".
34
Just STOP being disingenuous and surprised about Trump. Stop acting surprised. The act is way past old. Let's stop analyzing his racism and misogyny and really understand exactly how he turned so much anger into votes. It really is JOBS. Now let's find a better answer than Trump.
27
Or could it just be the overall smugness and grandiosity of the "Times vision"—which is disseminated to all of its writing staff? It has occurred to me that as time speeds up and the molecules move faster, The Times maintains a cloddish pace and a patrician, closet-authoritarian vision of the world.
I suggest you all take 6 months off to learn how to rap, maybe live in South Bronx or Brownsville, even go homeless for a few years, and then you may have a modicum of real life experience instead of the insufferable pontificating and theorizing that is the status quo in your organization. The more you isolate yourself in your ivory tower of wealth, or knowledge, or fear, the smaller your consciousness becomes.
I suggest you all take 6 months off to learn how to rap, maybe live in South Bronx or Brownsville, even go homeless for a few years, and then you may have a modicum of real life experience instead of the insufferable pontificating and theorizing that is the status quo in your organization. The more you isolate yourself in your ivory tower of wealth, or knowledge, or fear, the smaller your consciousness becomes.
37
Decades ago, Ronald Reagan said "Government is not the solution to the problem...it is the problem."
The public elected one candidate after another promising reform - no reform. No change.
The people are furious and cynical - and Trump is the result. It's not a Republican thing or a Democratic thing - it's a thing.
The public elected one candidate after another promising reform - no reform. No change.
The people are furious and cynical - and Trump is the result. It's not a Republican thing or a Democratic thing - it's a thing.
17
More than anything else, Trump's success is a fairly slight extension of the Herman Cain/Michele Bachmann, (even Pat Buchanan) model - a sustained wacko candidacy. The difference between those temporary front-runners and Trump is his significant celebrity and apparent "authenticity." This possibility is not new and no one should be surprised at this outcome.
4
How can you write an article about how Trump managed to become the Republican candidate for President without discussing the situation of voters in the USA and the fact that no one, except Donald Trump, was addressing their concerns and issues.
17
Worse is that the Left immediately dismisses those concerns and attacks anyone who does not toe the party line.
5
The voters have realized that Trump is financing his campaign himself with no need for payback to lobbyists, special interests and others. For the other candidates, BEGGARS ALL, they will be obligated to their donors. In other words, 'you scratch my back now, I'll scratch yours later (if I win the Presidency)'. Underhanded business, as usual!
13
Isn't it more frightening when an elected official is not accountable to anyone? Trump is so rich he is financing his own campaign and feels no responsibility to define and explain his positions. "trust me, it will be great". Why would anybody trust a person like him?
9
He'll be accountable to voters and a matter of personal pride to get re-elected.
5
No, I'd suggest it's not what the American mainstream mass-media... Op-Ed writers, reporters, social media, network broadcast talking-heads, and political prognosticators, did wrong about Donald Trump isn't of great import in hindsight. Rather than, it's that which the mass-media refused to pursue or expose about Mr. Trump that's poignantly clear. After the mass-media's allocation of more than $2-billion dollars in free exposure to Donald Trump, something tells me any subsequent second doubts are now only arbitrary. All of which vex me greatly.
7
If the Corporate crowd and party elites don't want Trump in the White House, they should be doing what they can to get Sanders to the top on the Democratic side. If it's Trump vs Clinton, he'll destroy her. The media has cooperatively kept all of Clinton's negatives hidden. Trump is going to put them all on display. In my opinion, Sanders is the only one with a chance of beating Trump in November.
11
That's the problem, it's your opinion, nothing else. There is no evidence that Trump will destroy her. It's just what some people want to believe.
1
Sure, lots of Americans will vote for a 74 year old Socialist who has accomplished nothing in his 38 years in Congress, unless waving your arms and shouting about the 'revolution' is considered an accomplishment.
6
Since my comments are never published anyway I can skip political correctness and summarize; you, and the other pundits, are incompetent. You failed miserably to read the American electorate and look like fools. Get real, literally; Trump is on track to be President and, as he is sworn in, the arrogant, out of touch, hoi polloi will have only yourselves to blame.
19
Let's say politicians are like mass produced hamburgers, and their parties (the cooks) keep tweaking and adding ingredients so they can hook more and more customers. Eventually, the recipe is spoiled and nobody wants your hamburger any more.
5
What you missed, Nate, is the issue of class. Unfortunately for Americans, one of the most prominent voices speaking on behalf of the working class this primary season was a racist populist nationalist. Considering how wrong you - and almost every pundit - has been about this republican primary I genuinely think we might have to seriously consider the prospect of a Donald Trump presidency. It's not like this sort of thing has ever happened before. Right?
5
Nate, you and the rest of the crowd of pundits and reporters underestimated the revulsion the American public feel for their corrupt leaders at all levels of government.
I'm afraid you won't get it till Trump is in the White House. This is all on the media who thought their embrace of the elite, because they themselves are part of the elite and get wined and dined by it, will coronate their chosen ones.
I'm afraid you won't get it till Trump is in the White House. This is all on the media who thought their embrace of the elite, because they themselves are part of the elite and get wined and dined by it, will coronate their chosen ones.
15
Will the media put Trump in office with their unlimited free coverage just to make a buck? Where is integrity in 2016? Why not start calling Trump out for his lies instead of simply giving him a mouthpiece? Or will that not sell as many papers as headlines of his latest insults will?
5
Those in charge of the media have nothing to lose. They will remain wealthy regardless of who wins in November. It's not life and death for them the way it is for many people. The buck will always win.
3
They don't do it for Clinton, why would they do it for Trump?
1
You missed another big reason Nate. Who would have guessed just how quickly Evangelicals would toss aside their precious "values " in order to glom on to a TV huckster. I guess "winning" trumps all that's holy.
7
maybe the evangelical vote isn't as important or large as some people perceived.
1
I basically agree with what you've written, especially when it comes to the weaknesses of Trump's opponents, but I think you've missed a key point - the irrational theatricality that is behind Trump's victory. Trump's appeal is visceral and emotional, and feeds off of anxieties and resentments the GOP has exploited indirectly for years. Trump's great insight was to publicly articulate that anger with language that conservative white males have been using among themselves for years. And he's been able to get away with it because the GOP has primed its base for generations to accept that kind of rhetoric as the truth once it's brought out into the open. After all, is it really that long a demagogic journey between Bill O’Reilly and Donald Trump?
Without its flamboyant appeals to the irrational rage of whites at economic and social changes they don't want to accept and don’t understand, Trump's campaign is just a big pile of nothing.
Without its flamboyant appeals to the irrational rage of whites at economic and social changes they don't want to accept and don’t understand, Trump's campaign is just a big pile of nothing.
3
Admit it. The same disdain elites have for many Americans they have for Trump. They still cannot understand how someone could ever get elected who is so common and vulgar and who doesn't think like them at all.
The answer to how they got it so wrong lies in their own views of certain kinds of Americans. In other words, their arrogance prevents them from understanding.
Trump's success might just be considered a giant middle finger from millions of Americans sick of this kind of thinking.
The answer to how they got it so wrong lies in their own views of certain kinds of Americans. In other words, their arrogance prevents them from understanding.
Trump's success might just be considered a giant middle finger from millions of Americans sick of this kind of thinking.
33
Nail on head. Have 100 up-votes!
12
I rarely agree with you, here you are dead right. The GOP leadership and its staff to include the members of the Press who generally spin things to make them look good simply missed that GOP dogma has become passe.
Trump is genuinely himself and is adult enough not to bother with worrying about anyone who might not like what he has to say so much that it prevents him from saying it. People recognize that and his crassness simply made the fake "personalities" of mainstream GOPers even more intolerable than they normally are.
I wouldn't vote for him but he is the most honest Pol the GOP has seen in a very long time.
Trump is genuinely himself and is adult enough not to bother with worrying about anyone who might not like what he has to say so much that it prevents him from saying it. People recognize that and his crassness simply made the fake "personalities" of mainstream GOPers even more intolerable than they normally are.
I wouldn't vote for him but he is the most honest Pol the GOP has seen in a very long time.
5
I support Sanders, but if it's Clinton vs. Trump, I'll be voting for Trump for exactly that reason, AACNY.
7
16 out of 28 headlines in the Politics section are Trump.
0 on Sanders, who won yesterday's election.
Who is running a historic campaign: first Presidential candidate to refuse PAC and super-PACs; most individual contributions ever; first and only candidate to promise to nominate a Supreme Court justice who will overturn Citizens United.
83% of Democrats and 80% of Republicans want to overturn Citizens United.
But they all have to go elsewhere to get news.
0 on Sanders, who won yesterday's election.
Who is running a historic campaign: first Presidential candidate to refuse PAC and super-PACs; most individual contributions ever; first and only candidate to promise to nominate a Supreme Court justice who will overturn Citizens United.
83% of Democrats and 80% of Republicans want to overturn Citizens United.
But they all have to go elsewhere to get news.
15
I would say you got it very wrong.
This paper, CNN, MSNBC, FOX are guilty of compromised journalistic integrity.
Trump's histrionics were enabled by the media; he is handled by the media as though he is an exhibit instead of approaching this character as a Presidential candidate.
Yes Nate Cohn, we the people now have two finalist for the Presidency, Trump and Clinton, who most American dislike; thanks for the new revelation.
This paper, CNN, MSNBC, FOX are guilty of compromised journalistic integrity.
Trump's histrionics were enabled by the media; he is handled by the media as though he is an exhibit instead of approaching this character as a Presidential candidate.
Yes Nate Cohn, we the people now have two finalist for the Presidency, Trump and Clinton, who most American dislike; thanks for the new revelation.
5
I had no interest in the US Presidential race until I started seeing the way the American media kept trying to bring Trump down. The way I see it, the US media decided Hillary should be President and took the low road trying to disparage Trump and the Americans voting for him. The fact that media such as the NYT had no problem calling millions of voters bigots, racists, homophobes, uneducated, xenophobes, etc. bothers me. Millions of middle class Americans are barely getting by financially under the current system and they're voting for their economic interests. That's the appeal of both Trump and Sanders : the system isn't working for the people and the people want change.The protesters I saw outside the Hillary rally in West Virginia holding Trump signs appeared to very polite and respectful. How about respecting people's votes instead of belittling and talking down to them, Nate?
34
16 year coronation parade just might get sidetracked.
5
Timing is everything especially in politics. There were no candidates to get excited about it in either party so Sanders and Trump were in the right place at the right time. Unless Clinton blows it, which would be like her, Trump will lose and maybe badly. She should kill him during the debates, she's smart, well informed and tough. He shoots from the hip. On the other hand who knows ... once the Republicans get themselves under control and stop overreacting they may discover Trump is crazy like a fox. News flash: the world will not end if Trump is elected prez.
6
This essay obscures the laziness of the media in covering the Republican primaries. It was clearly easier for the media to republish the Trump press releases and Trump's reality-show-like town halls/campaign rallies than to do real reporting.
From the start Trump lied about how he opposed the was in Iraq when his own recorded words had him supporting the invasion and criticizing Bush I for not finishing off Iraq's leaders. Yet the Times reported as fact that Trump opposed the war.
The heart of the rise and dominance of Trump was sloppy reporting and journalistic malpractice. This essay hides the role of a weak media in his success.
From the start Trump lied about how he opposed the was in Iraq when his own recorded words had him supporting the invasion and criticizing Bush I for not finishing off Iraq's leaders. Yet the Times reported as fact that Trump opposed the war.
The heart of the rise and dominance of Trump was sloppy reporting and journalistic malpractice. This essay hides the role of a weak media in his success.
1
Huge numbers of people make decisions based on their emotional responses rather than using an analytic (non-emotional) decision-making process. If Trump says, "I'm going to make America great again!" and that feels good, many people will vote for him based on that feeling. We who think analytically and say that Trump's proposals for making America great won't work have missed the point--the it-feels-great-to-me votes have been cast. Trump's racist, sexist, xenophobic statements work in the same ugly way. Robert Penn Warren described those voters perfectly in "All the King's Men": "....make 'em cry, make 'em laugh,....stir 'em up and make 'em feel alive again....But for Sweet Jesus' sake don't try to improve their minds." The rest of us won't make accurate predictions of voter behavior until we realize that basis for Trump's success.
2
That also goes for the Sanders supporters.
1
Nah, Nate, that's not what you got wrong. What you got wrong was not venturing outside that terrarium where you and the rest of the pundits abide in narcotic bliss. Should have eavesdropped on a few check out lines, bellied up to a few down- market bars. That sort of thing. It was and is all there.
16
None of your "reasons" attribute Trump's win to Trump himself.
He is a branding genius - he branded his opponents doggedly and relentlessly and it worked.
He is vicious - anytime he gets attacked, he attacks back 10x as hard (incidentally, a good reputation to have as leader of the US - don't mess with us in either trade or the military).
He has great, common sense policies that the electorate loves - despite what the elites think and years of republican orthodoxy, the crowds love "the wall" and hate "free" trade
He is a branding genius - he branded his opponents doggedly and relentlessly and it worked.
He is vicious - anytime he gets attacked, he attacks back 10x as hard (incidentally, a good reputation to have as leader of the US - don't mess with us in either trade or the military).
He has great, common sense policies that the electorate loves - despite what the elites think and years of republican orthodoxy, the crowds love "the wall" and hate "free" trade
9
Mr. Cohn elegantly eats crow thanks to Mr. Trump...
I might be oversimplifying this, but the way I see it, people are just tired of electing the same people and getting the same results, maybe we are not as insane after all.
I might be oversimplifying this, but the way I see it, people are just tired of electing the same people and getting the same results, maybe we are not as insane after all.
13
As hundreds have already said, what Nate got wrong was the anger amongst the non-elites who feel they've been shafted by their political leaders. What I think is really sad is that his supporters seem to believe that Trump actually cares about them. His run for the presidency is all about him and his ego, nothing more. Given his attitudes about people less fortunate than himself, I wouldn't be surprised at all if deep down he considers the vast majority of people in this country to be "losers", including his own supporters.
5
New analyses show Trump voters are actually better off economically than average Americans are (Silver). It's that they're AFRAID. Fearful that someone else will get some of what they have. Or get more than they do.
4
Don't take your wrong prediction to heart. So did many, many other experts. Who knew the buffoon, raving, ranting, swearing, insulting, misogynist, bigoted, racist narcissist would be the forerunner and now the only candidate left standing for the Republican Nomination. Oh! I should'nt forget - we are talking about the Republicans!
1
This was entirely predictable and is simply the national Republican party's "Arnold Schwarzenegger" moment.
Residents of California may remember that after a divisive recall, Schwarzenegger, who ran as a Republican, was elected governor, having beat out several career politicians, both Democrat and Republican. This was a major celebrity-as-executive-leadership-experience moment in US politics. The political landscape for CA Republican party then was not all that different from the national political circumstances of Republicans now - recession economy, rancor over immigration, debilitating political deadlock, deadlock over annual state budgets, animus against gays (led to prop 8), and lots of crony capitalism that hurt everyday people - not unlike some of our national problems today. Schwarzenegger won after a campaign crowded with lots of other Republican candidates, many of which were unelectable right wingers. I'd say that it just took a little over 10 years for the national party to catch up with CA.
I we use the CA experience to predict what will happen nationally - Schwarzenegger won and served two terms as a terrible governor and the CA Republican party imploded during that time - so, Trump will win, do a horrible job, and the Republican party will fall apart during his term, and, then afterwords, Democrats will take over and clean up the mess.
Residents of California may remember that after a divisive recall, Schwarzenegger, who ran as a Republican, was elected governor, having beat out several career politicians, both Democrat and Republican. This was a major celebrity-as-executive-leadership-experience moment in US politics. The political landscape for CA Republican party then was not all that different from the national political circumstances of Republicans now - recession economy, rancor over immigration, debilitating political deadlock, deadlock over annual state budgets, animus against gays (led to prop 8), and lots of crony capitalism that hurt everyday people - not unlike some of our national problems today. Schwarzenegger won after a campaign crowded with lots of other Republican candidates, many of which were unelectable right wingers. I'd say that it just took a little over 10 years for the national party to catch up with CA.
I we use the CA experience to predict what will happen nationally - Schwarzenegger won and served two terms as a terrible governor and the CA Republican party imploded during that time - so, Trump will win, do a horrible job, and the Republican party will fall apart during his term, and, then afterwords, Democrats will take over and clean up the mess.
4
I like your analysis, but I don't agree that Trump will win. He is not the Establishment's choice and he does not have the smooth, phony appeal of Reagan. Clinton is, always has been, at least since 2012. And one more thing to add to your piece: the Republicans nominated and won with an idiot, buffoon actor who was nothing more than a puppet on the Establishment's strings.
Clinton will be our next prez. I hope Sanders has a profound and strong influence on her--though I doubt it. She'll change her position that way and this way and whichever way Bill tells her to.
Clinton will be our next prez. I hope Sanders has a profound and strong influence on her--though I doubt it. She'll change her position that way and this way and whichever way Bill tells her to.
4
Meanwhile, we'll be stuck with a conservative majority on the Supreme Court for the next 25 years.
Clinton will have a big surprise!
2
Re: "...he [trump] had unlimited free media...."
This point needs more stress. Trump is largely a creation of corporate media--and not just his ridiculous presidential "campaign", but his entire public persona. Conversely, if Bernie Sanders loses the Democratic nomination, he won't have lost it to Hillary Clinton; he'll have to lost it to corporate media, which has been attempting to bury his candidacy since he first announced it.
This point needs more stress. Trump is largely a creation of corporate media--and not just his ridiculous presidential "campaign", but his entire public persona. Conversely, if Bernie Sanders loses the Democratic nomination, he won't have lost it to Hillary Clinton; he'll have to lost it to corporate media, which has been attempting to bury his candidacy since he first announced it.
8
A few years ago the Wall St. Journal had a fascinating article about groupthink - my take-away was that we surround ourselves with People Like Us (PLU's) demographically, socially, economically, etc that allow us to be blind or dismissive to the concerns to Non-PLU's (exhibit A: Trump voters). I think that includes the "elite" readers of the Times - and its writers (let's see the statistical breakdown of readership). I don't know one person in my social circle who took Trump seriously- it was one big echo chamber. But here we are.
5
there is no doubt about that, I refer to them as the smirking meritocracy.
3
Trump supporters are just a different group of PLU. The world is "theirs", other nationalities, races, and genders all just happen to live in it.
1
You really missed nothing about Trump. I'm not sure why you're even writing this article - is this disguised gloating? The real story is how the left wing media zealously and gleefully promoted/manipulated Trump into a patsy that HRC will slaughter in November. You knew Hillary would face a much tougher challenge from a serious Republican candidate like Kasich or Rubio so you wrote about Trump endlessly and your cameras covered his every move. You deserve the blame.
1
One day 5,000-1 long-shots Leicester City clinch the English Premier League title. The next day that other unimaginable long-shot, Donald Trump, clinches the Republication nomination. And while Mr. Trump is anything but the lovable underdog the Foxes are, I'll give him this much--he has positioned himself as a champion of the underdog and as a challenge to a status quo that desperately needs challenging.
Or to use another analogy, if your conventional physician seems less interested in your health than he or she is in selling you drugs and surgeries, who am I to blame you for giving up on that doctor and seeking help from a doctor I might consider a quack?
Or to use another analogy, if your conventional physician seems less interested in your health than he or she is in selling you drugs and surgeries, who am I to blame you for giving up on that doctor and seeking help from a doctor I might consider a quack?
4
Here's what Trump supporters understand and, conversely, what the Hillary-Obama crowd don't. In the Real World of for-profit business where personal responsibility and accountability matter, Trump is a proven success, a leader and a man who knows how to delegate authority. And half of his executives are women. Obama would have been fired after his disastrous first term if not before and Hillary Clinton is a stone-cold corrupt politicianwho, along with her husband,has always been available to the highest bidder and who would have been canned for any one of her nefarious deals and disregard for the Rules as exemplified in her email scandal.
10
What all the journalists and pundits got wrong about Donald Trump is simple: the level of dissatisfaction in the electorate. For seven years polls have shown most Americans feel the country is moving in the wrong direction; these polls never tell us what Americans want and what direction they prefer.
But, it is clear that many Americans are dissatisfied with the government's response to the recession, unhappy about the economy, job opportunities (yes, we have created jobs but they are low wage, low skill jobs and many who were unemployed at the start of the recession remain so or have been relegated to part time and freelance work), their own financial security, their ability to pay for and access healthcare. All of these concerns, so frequently dismissed, are at the heart of Trump's rise.
But, it is clear that many Americans are dissatisfied with the government's response to the recession, unhappy about the economy, job opportunities (yes, we have created jobs but they are low wage, low skill jobs and many who were unemployed at the start of the recession remain so or have been relegated to part time and freelance work), their own financial security, their ability to pay for and access healthcare. All of these concerns, so frequently dismissed, are at the heart of Trump's rise.
15
Blue State Republican Voters are pretty sick of a stagnant economy and being short changed and lied to on all sides by politicians.
They understand that all of the career politicians in both major parties are bought and paid for by Wall Street and the Oligarchs. Most of these voters for the folks doing the buying so the actually see it happening and know how it works. They know that the system is rigged. So of course they are open to Trump's message.
The only difference between them and the Sanders Voters on the Left is that they have not yet decided to scrap the whole systems and introduce Democratic Socialism. My guess is that these Blue State Republicans can be persuaded by their sons and daughters and their coworkers though that Sanders is right and that is what has the Plutocrats and their servants at the Gray Lady so very scared.
They understand that all of the career politicians in both major parties are bought and paid for by Wall Street and the Oligarchs. Most of these voters for the folks doing the buying so the actually see it happening and know how it works. They know that the system is rigged. So of course they are open to Trump's message.
The only difference between them and the Sanders Voters on the Left is that they have not yet decided to scrap the whole systems and introduce Democratic Socialism. My guess is that these Blue State Republicans can be persuaded by their sons and daughters and their coworkers though that Sanders is right and that is what has the Plutocrats and their servants at the Gray Lady so very scared.
7
The real problem is this; “John Kasich on the left“
In a party where that is true Trump was the only real choice.
Kasich is a GOP far right wing extremist slightly to the left of the rest of the GOP rightwing extremists running with him. Compared to them, saint reagan, who was the leader of the furthest extent the extreme far right had gone to in his day, would today be considered a democrat for being so far to their left.
The GOP field was as it has been since 1979, all about hyped repetition of GOP dogma. There is clearly no real set of beliefs there, only the model designed and codified in stone when reagan finally succeeded at winning on his 4th try. This is why I often say the GOP is a slightly modified version of the Communists.
It's all Pary line dogma or nothing with them.
Trump has his own mind and opinions, which he is not afraid of speaking. The insider GOPer is terrified of saying or doing anything independent which cannot be explained by wrote GOP dogma. Trump has shown the GOP base is able to accept differences the party leaders do not think them able to comprehend or maybe don’t want to comprehend themselves.
In a party where that is true Trump was the only real choice.
Kasich is a GOP far right wing extremist slightly to the left of the rest of the GOP rightwing extremists running with him. Compared to them, saint reagan, who was the leader of the furthest extent the extreme far right had gone to in his day, would today be considered a democrat for being so far to their left.
The GOP field was as it has been since 1979, all about hyped repetition of GOP dogma. There is clearly no real set of beliefs there, only the model designed and codified in stone when reagan finally succeeded at winning on his 4th try. This is why I often say the GOP is a slightly modified version of the Communists.
It's all Pary line dogma or nothing with them.
Trump has his own mind and opinions, which he is not afraid of speaking. The insider GOPer is terrified of saying or doing anything independent which cannot be explained by wrote GOP dogma. Trump has shown the GOP base is able to accept differences the party leaders do not think them able to comprehend or maybe don’t want to comprehend themselves.
3
Republicans should cut their losses. They should mount an independent effort on behalf of some palatable party stalwart, if only as a write-in given ballot deadlines, hoping to syphon off enough Trump votes to ensure Clinton's victory in case the race tightens, and humiliate him further if it doesn't, while (they would hope) demonstrating some degree of passion among the establishment to prepare for a more orderly 2020 campaign. Risky, yes, but the GOP needs something to gin up enthusiasm apart from Trump and merely voting for Clinton isn't going to do it. The country needs an insurance policy against further bizarreness.
1
The GOP should, actually, back Hillary Clinton. If she's president, they have someone to act in opposition to, something at which they excel. If Trump is president, they own him, he's their guy. Not nearly so satisfying.
1
the other thing that comes to my mind when reading your article is that one of his biggest assets in the general election will be the fact that he can now say pretty much anything he wants and that won't make him stumble like Romney's comment on the 47%. in many ways he's now been vetted with regards to declaring anything he wants.
2
Should I look forward to the follow up --"what I got wrong about Donald Trump, in what I got wrong about Donald Trump"?
6
great article, Nate. thank you.
in the section where you comment on "overstating the GOP resolve", don't you think that another explanation could be that some in the GOP might actually have secretly wished this to happen? That Trump was the only option to profoundly overhaul the Republican party and adapt it to the 21st century (fiscally conservative, socially moderate)? Romney has failed, the tea party isn't going anywhere; what else better than a radical change like Trump to reset the clock? this is at least a plausible read on Reince Priebus' relative neutrality throughout the period and his very rapid tweet last night.
in the section where you comment on "overstating the GOP resolve", don't you think that another explanation could be that some in the GOP might actually have secretly wished this to happen? That Trump was the only option to profoundly overhaul the Republican party and adapt it to the 21st century (fiscally conservative, socially moderate)? Romney has failed, the tea party isn't going anywhere; what else better than a radical change like Trump to reset the clock? this is at least a plausible read on Reince Priebus' relative neutrality throughout the period and his very rapid tweet last night.
Statistical models can go wrong when the model for what happens in the future is the past.The sample population is not large (long) enough.
2
I honestly don't believe that even Trump himself expected to get the nomination. I think he loves cameras and attention, and entered the race on a lark -- fully expecting to drop out after he'd drummed up some publicity. He only chose the Republican nomination because the Democrats already had Hillary.
And then - in an unforeseen twist - he actually started winning! And kept winning! So he just kept going.
What on earth are Republicans thinking??? I'm embarrassed for them.
And then - in an unforeseen twist - he actually started winning! And kept winning! So he just kept going.
What on earth are Republicans thinking??? I'm embarrassed for them.
5
I think you're onto something about Trump not expecting to win, but you don't complete the thought: Trump may have prevailed because he campaigned like someone who could afford to lose; he was uninhibited and voluble in a way that made the other candidates seem stilted and desperate all the time. Trump could bluster on whereas the other candidates' every word was forced and calculated.
To take a notion David Brooks has made much of in his psychology and education essays but not applied to a critique of economic inequality (about which he cares little), higher attainments require "risk from a secure base." Trump operates from a position of such surpassing "security" that missteps cost nothing to him and he knows it. This dynamic inderlies his every action, and indeed every success; whereas other candidates knew any flub would be catastrophic not only electorally but existentially.For Trump the worst case scenario entails fulltime billionaire sybaritic and sexual bliss.
To take a notion David Brooks has made much of in his psychology and education essays but not applied to a critique of economic inequality (about which he cares little), higher attainments require "risk from a secure base." Trump operates from a position of such surpassing "security" that missteps cost nothing to him and he knows it. This dynamic inderlies his every action, and indeed every success; whereas other candidates knew any flub would be catastrophic not only electorally but existentially.For Trump the worst case scenario entails fulltime billionaire sybaritic and sexual bliss.
5
Andrew you are a genius!
2
This article is proof once again how oblivious the media has become. With every negative article and denunciation of Mr. Trump by the liberal agenda, or the washed up old guard in the Republican party, it was having the exact opposite effect on voters. Even galvanizing our view that this is rigged system, and most importantly no amount of negative coverage will change our view of the tough challenges ahead, and the person who needs to be in charge to make them.
11
Forget Trump, the darling of the mainstream media. Bernie, who has somehow become almost invisible, is the outlier now. He's the one not "connected" in the corrupt political system. He's the one the media fears the most. Go Bernie!
8
What all the mainstream media and Democrats got wrong about Trump is the grassroots support that he has from the blue collar middle class of America. They do not resent his fortune, success or multiple wives. That is the story line that the liberal left wants to impose on Trump to foment class warfare and their agenda for a socialist America. Meanwhile, those who oppose Trump at the upper echelons of the Democrat party continue to make their fortunes off of the backs of the very people who provide them with votes. Hillary Clinton is a perfect example. She and her husband have "made" $48 million in corporate speeches while proclaiming themselves to be the "party of the people". The Democrats rely on imposed poverty and federal government dependency, supposed racism and false diatribes of misogyny to promote their party and their candidates. That narrative has produced the big and growing federal government we have today. Trump says no to that. It is a dead end road which leads to failure.
11
No surprises to main street. TheMedia, the so called insiders, and Corporate America, especially Wall Street have it good and intend to keep it that way. Trumps followers defined as un-educated white folks, along with Blacks who support the Clintons, and Bernie's fantasy followers are a non issue. A whole new demographic of Trump and Cruz followers will become wards of the Social Democratic Welfare State Model, a model that is extremely popular.
2
Could it be that the punditry missed Trump because a) they wanted to, and b) the GOP put up truly, horrible candidates? The party that owns both houses and most states had no one better?
6
I got Trump wrong too. It's because I grossly underestimated the electorate's appetite for banal, profane, spectacles of mockery, and the capacity of Trump to dish it out. Add to that the complicity of the media in serving it up, and you get to where we are now.
Once upon a time, rocket scientists captured our admiration; now its demolition derby drivers like Trump.
Once upon a time, rocket scientists captured our admiration; now its demolition derby drivers like Trump.
13
You left a big factor in Trump's success: his own incredible skill. He arrived on the scene with no political allies but plenty of enemies; the media have been unified against him; and the process was rigged for the benefit of insiders. He overcame those obstacles through his abilities, not dumb luck.
Love him or hate him, Trump is much smarter, much more cunning, much craftier, much more politically astute than any leader since Bill Clinton. He changed the national conversation through force of personality alone. Trump deserves credit for an incredible accomplishment.
Love him or hate him, Trump is much smarter, much more cunning, much craftier, much more politically astute than any leader since Bill Clinton. He changed the national conversation through force of personality alone. Trump deserves credit for an incredible accomplishment.
17
I really didn't expect Trump to last so long, but I also didn't think the Republicans had what pundits were calling a deep bench. They all seemed like weak candidates to me although it was somewhat surprising that Rubio and Bush faded so quickly. In retrospect, given what a weak field it was, it's just not surprising that Trump is the last candidate standing.
1
Trump=barf!
Not a word on the NYT today about Bernie Sanders win yesterday in Indiana, just column after column about the Republican dropouts. This was the first piece I could find with a Comments section.
Grrrrr.
Not a word on the NYT today about Bernie Sanders win yesterday in Indiana, just column after column about the Republican dropouts. This was the first piece I could find with a Comments section.
Grrrrr.
9
Lots of people dropping lots of balls: Party leaders did not check Trump's Birth Cert. Canard when they had a chance because craven anti-Obamism was more important than the dignity of the truth. Base voters did not see the many contradictions between what Trump says and what reality is (his clothes made in China; using undocumented immigrants at his building projects; and his many bankruptcies). The media bowed down to his faux-celebrity and so refused to challenge him and gave him free coverage worth million$. Party leaders (again) allowed too many weak candidates run and debate. The GOP will get a national drubbing and will deserve it.
9
I fear that we are all, the media, the conservatives and liberals, Democrats, Republicans and Independents, making exactly the same mistakes we made when at the very start of this process. We underestimated Trump and overestimated just about everyone else. We have consistently failed to grasp exactly why it is that Mr Trump is so very popular. I am sure the answers, when you drill down, is fairly complex. That said, it seems to me that we are missing an extremely important driver, an elephant in the room that we all see, that we all talk about, but never really seem to fully comprehend or address. A huge proportion of people across party lines seem to want Not An Establishment Candidate. And no one, neither the Republican candidates nor the only Democratic candidate, is able to address that single most important issue, which, necessarily, is like a giant oak tree with many branches, each of which, individually and/or in combination, comprise the sturdy oak itself. Time to see the wood for the trees unless we wish to live out the story already written. #ThePlotAgainstAmerica #PhilipRothAlreadyWroteThisStory
1
Got wrong?
I assumed wrongly that there were such things as deal breakers. A candidate who parodies a handicapped person, wants to ban Muslims, build a wall, punish women - I wrongly thought - would be rejected. I thought he would provoke horror and dread. Instead, he is being embraced by a lot more than the blue collar meth addict and welfare junkie.
I assumed wrongly that there is a point beyond which the absurdity is called by the American people. I was wrong. Per Trump, America will engage and disengage with the world, he will hurt China who loves him, Hispanics will be deported by they love him. So will 'the' blacks. His misogyny would attract women because he cherishes them. His health plan will be better: he will ban bad health you see, hospitals will no longer be necessary. He will take care of the veterans by telling them he is taking care of them. He will tell congress to behave, and they will listen. I am now learning: there is no position he can take that is absurd beyond the pale. It is all plausible to the American voter.
Kalidan
I assumed wrongly that there were such things as deal breakers. A candidate who parodies a handicapped person, wants to ban Muslims, build a wall, punish women - I wrongly thought - would be rejected. I thought he would provoke horror and dread. Instead, he is being embraced by a lot more than the blue collar meth addict and welfare junkie.
I assumed wrongly that there is a point beyond which the absurdity is called by the American people. I was wrong. Per Trump, America will engage and disengage with the world, he will hurt China who loves him, Hispanics will be deported by they love him. So will 'the' blacks. His misogyny would attract women because he cherishes them. His health plan will be better: he will ban bad health you see, hospitals will no longer be necessary. He will take care of the veterans by telling them he is taking care of them. He will tell congress to behave, and they will listen. I am now learning: there is no position he can take that is absurd beyond the pale. It is all plausible to the American voter.
Kalidan
10
He actually didn't make fun of handicapped people. One of the balls constantly dropped is casual rearrangements of stuff like this. He most certainly made the statements about banning Muslims and building the wall on our southern border, but he actually did not make fun of handicapped persons.
9
Trump said he wanted to ban all Muslims *until we could insure that no terrorists slip through* - hard to argue with, as is the idea of building a wall on our Southern border, which will put a lot of people to work and possibly stop Mexico from exporting the support of their unwanted citizens to US taxpayers.
Or we could continue doing what we have been doing for the past 40+ years, while the citizens of this country are ignored by both parties.
Or we could continue doing what we have been doing for the past 40+ years, while the citizens of this country are ignored by both parties.
4
The main reason that you got it wrong was the simple fact that you totally underestimated the frustration and the rage that the GOP has garnered with its electorate base.
The only reason Cruz lasted as long as he did was because he was the only insider who actually had a record of opposing the Establishment. When that facade was finally exposed he too folded like an accordion.
Funding was not an issue as proven by the deep pockets of Mr. Bush. The number of deep bench opponents fell like dominoes because they were associated with the toxic GOP Establishment. Only Kasich remained in the race far too long apparently because he enjoyed hearing himself talk... about himself.
With all the forces that one could imagine lined up against him, Mr. Trump prevailed. People did not care what he said..........it was what he represented..........Anti-Establishment.
The only reason Cruz lasted as long as he did was because he was the only insider who actually had a record of opposing the Establishment. When that facade was finally exposed he too folded like an accordion.
Funding was not an issue as proven by the deep pockets of Mr. Bush. The number of deep bench opponents fell like dominoes because they were associated with the toxic GOP Establishment. Only Kasich remained in the race far too long apparently because he enjoyed hearing himself talk... about himself.
With all the forces that one could imagine lined up against him, Mr. Trump prevailed. People did not care what he said..........it was what he represented..........Anti-Establishment.
10
The headline could have been - What almost everyone got wrong about Trump. I wonder if a similar article will be written about Sanders in a few months.
I already know my predictions and opinions mean little (not that I'll stop either)? Do pundits and columnists know that? Sometimes I wonder. Perhaps it is human nature to think that when you are wrong, it is because of something unforeseeable, and when you are right, it's because of your analysis.
I already know my predictions and opinions mean little (not that I'll stop either)? Do pundits and columnists know that? Sometimes I wonder. Perhaps it is human nature to think that when you are wrong, it is because of something unforeseeable, and when you are right, it's because of your analysis.
2
Two things the times and everyone else got wrong. Myself and a handful of commentators have been saying this from the start.
1. Trump is right on trade. People have lost their jobs. Clinton and Cruz provide no pathway out of the Wall street, silicon valley, fed reinforcement of inequality.
2. The GOP followers have been raised by the Murdoch press with its extremism and op eds in the place of the facts.
1. Trump is right on trade. People have lost their jobs. Clinton and Cruz provide no pathway out of the Wall street, silicon valley, fed reinforcement of inequality.
2. The GOP followers have been raised by the Murdoch press with its extremism and op eds in the place of the facts.
7
Astonishing. Stunning. Beyond belief. Reading this article, one could assume that Felix the Cat could have won the nomination. There must be an editorial rule at the Times that says, "Nothing positive about Putin or Trump," sort of like "Think" at IBM.
Has it occurred to you that Donald Trump is an intelligent man? That the endless positively North Korean tsunami of negative adjectives just might be a bit, shall we say, wrong?
Whose IQ is highest? Trump's or Bush, Rubio, Cruz, etc.?
In Bayesian probability, if you have no prior information the odds are 50-50. Clinton should take that to heart. Clearly, the people who don't want Trump to win, and if one reads the Times that is everyone on earth, have not gotten the right handle on the problem. Certainly not you.
Has it occurred to you that Donald Trump is an intelligent man? That the endless positively North Korean tsunami of negative adjectives just might be a bit, shall we say, wrong?
Whose IQ is highest? Trump's or Bush, Rubio, Cruz, etc.?
In Bayesian probability, if you have no prior information the odds are 50-50. Clinton should take that to heart. Clearly, the people who don't want Trump to win, and if one reads the Times that is everyone on earth, have not gotten the right handle on the problem. Certainly not you.
7
He's tapped into, and benefited from, so much anger and frustration.
6
Donald J Trump reminds me of L. Ron Hubbard, another strawberry blond who loved glamour and attracted unrealistic, adoring followers who hoped for supernatural cures of gritty problems. Sad.
3
The republican elite have lost this fight because they do not understand that Trump is not a politician, he is an unpredictable entrepreneur. Democrats cannot make that same mistake.
I'm a social scientist, I study entrepreneurs - I will try to explain in lay terms why an entrepreneur would make a terrible President. Trump keeps talking about the need to be "unpredictable", which is not surprising given the particularly unknowable nature of the future for entrepreneurs who create organisations from scratch - uncertainty is a central construct in entrepreneurial theory. Entrepreneurs fluent in this approach are able to construct a future market from existing resources, create a new opportunity seemingly out of thin air. For this reason entrepreneurs have completely different approaches, behaviors, personalities and characteristics than other people, such as bankers, managers and yes, politicians.
To put it very simply, a president needs to work within established organisations, institutes and rules of law, whereas an entrepreneur is often pushing at the boundaries of these existing conditions. Trump will try to construct competitive advantages through a combative approach to negotiations, which is great for sales, but not for diplomacy. Plus he will bulldoze through legal boundaries, pushing to create new rules etc., which is great for product innovation like new laws for self driving cars, or drones, but not diplomacy.
Stop thinking of Trump as a politician.
I'm a social scientist, I study entrepreneurs - I will try to explain in lay terms why an entrepreneur would make a terrible President. Trump keeps talking about the need to be "unpredictable", which is not surprising given the particularly unknowable nature of the future for entrepreneurs who create organisations from scratch - uncertainty is a central construct in entrepreneurial theory. Entrepreneurs fluent in this approach are able to construct a future market from existing resources, create a new opportunity seemingly out of thin air. For this reason entrepreneurs have completely different approaches, behaviors, personalities and characteristics than other people, such as bankers, managers and yes, politicians.
To put it very simply, a president needs to work within established organisations, institutes and rules of law, whereas an entrepreneur is often pushing at the boundaries of these existing conditions. Trump will try to construct competitive advantages through a combative approach to negotiations, which is great for sales, but not for diplomacy. Plus he will bulldoze through legal boundaries, pushing to create new rules etc., which is great for product innovation like new laws for self driving cars, or drones, but not diplomacy.
Stop thinking of Trump as a politician.
6
Nate-
I read your columns (and watched cable news) about Trump since he announced his candidacy and which declared that Trump had no chance. And yet, from the beginning I knew that Trump would win the nomination & I know he will win the general election. How can I know this? Since the media are emotionally detached from the tremendous pain and suffering that poor and struggling Americans suffer each day. While the pain and suffering of the majority of Americans has been conveniently ignored over the past 15 years, the veritable 'skeletons in the closet' of our society have become too numerous to be hidden and the closet door has come bursting open for all to see. Each day we read more stories about a 'curious' up-tick in the number of homeless people seen on the streets of NYC. Then we read about it 'mysteriously happening in other cities too, like Seattle. Our politicians (in both parties) have failed us miserably. We swallowed the kool-aid of free trade theories without factoring in the open-thieving of our intellectual property by other nations, the devaluation of their currency which has prevented our companies from competing in their markets, and we have gladly shipped blue-collar jobs to China, Mexico & beyond. The rest of those jobs which exist here have been taken by illegal immigrants who are willing to work below minimum wage. College grads can't get jobs since the management jobs which they would have filled were shipped away. And you wonder how Trump is winning?
I read your columns (and watched cable news) about Trump since he announced his candidacy and which declared that Trump had no chance. And yet, from the beginning I knew that Trump would win the nomination & I know he will win the general election. How can I know this? Since the media are emotionally detached from the tremendous pain and suffering that poor and struggling Americans suffer each day. While the pain and suffering of the majority of Americans has been conveniently ignored over the past 15 years, the veritable 'skeletons in the closet' of our society have become too numerous to be hidden and the closet door has come bursting open for all to see. Each day we read more stories about a 'curious' up-tick in the number of homeless people seen on the streets of NYC. Then we read about it 'mysteriously happening in other cities too, like Seattle. Our politicians (in both parties) have failed us miserably. We swallowed the kool-aid of free trade theories without factoring in the open-thieving of our intellectual property by other nations, the devaluation of their currency which has prevented our companies from competing in their markets, and we have gladly shipped blue-collar jobs to China, Mexico & beyond. The rest of those jobs which exist here have been taken by illegal immigrants who are willing to work below minimum wage. College grads can't get jobs since the management jobs which they would have filled were shipped away. And you wonder how Trump is winning?
23
All true but what makes you think Trump really cares or will do anything about it?
1
Nate Cohn is scratching his head wondering how people could overlook all those horrible things Trump said and just be so focused on jobs.
15
And Trump manufactures in China and he hires from Eastern Europe for his Mar-a-Lago. I guess no Americans needed jobs when he was looking around for workers. Not.
1
Trump is really no different than any other politician. He makes empty promises he won't be able to keep. He blusters and postures and blathers and rants. He does know how to market his message though and convince the unwary and the frustrated that he has the answer. P. T. Barnum the great huckster, showman and circus ring master would understand perfectly. Tell people that you have something so rare and unusual that they will be astounded when they pay admission and see the "ultimate wonder". Create the aura of mystery and invincibility around your "rarity" to get the crowd worked up. Then dress some poor lizard up in a fake costume and call it the "Komodo Island Dragon Lizard" and collect two bits from the mark to see the "wonder of the ages". A very common and traditional scam worked on rubes everywhere everyday.
Just what Trump is doing---taping into "wonder and curiosity" in the form of anger and frustration, dressing up some tired and worn largely libertarian ideas and presenting all this garbage as some type of wondrous and mysterious new beast that nobody has ever seen before and never will again.
Sorry rubes but it's the same old animal with a fancy dress and a fancy new name. Don't be fooled by Trump the Jabberwocky because you and I will both be very sorry but it will only be your fault.
Just what Trump is doing---taping into "wonder and curiosity" in the form of anger and frustration, dressing up some tired and worn largely libertarian ideas and presenting all this garbage as some type of wondrous and mysterious new beast that nobody has ever seen before and never will again.
Sorry rubes but it's the same old animal with a fancy dress and a fancy new name. Don't be fooled by Trump the Jabberwocky because you and I will both be very sorry but it will only be your fault.
7
For decades, since the birth of Nixon's "Southern Strategy", to get votes every GOP presidential candidate has stoked the fire of white racism, while doing everything possible to gut the manufacturing basis of post WWII white working class prosperity. The GOP establishment got what it wanted, consolidation of economic and political power in the top one percent, and a dispossessed, insecure and economically desperate racist white working class which blamed all its ills on minorities and immigrants. Too bad for the GOP, it didn't when to quit. Even a dog that's constantly kicked will be loyal if it's fed and occasionally patted on the head. The GOP elites forgot that bit, and now the rabid GOP rabble is biting its masters back.
6
Kind of forgot about Hillary's "white working class" speech in the 2008 campaign against Obama, didn't ya?
6
Am I the only person who felt so chilly (chilly to the bone marrow), sad (like being pushed into water), and angry (like smoldered ashes that never think it could be sparkled again)... that I really wanted to do something to prevent the tragedy that happened 83 years ago in Germany from recurring?
8
"Godwin's Law"...was waiting for it.
4
it's not about trump.
it's about who actually votes in the primaries and caucuses (those with nothing better to do and who have never heard of a black swan) and what the media reports (a lot of nonsense and click bait).
don't like the outcome? then stop reading and start voting.
it's about who actually votes in the primaries and caucuses (those with nothing better to do and who have never heard of a black swan) and what the media reports (a lot of nonsense and click bait).
don't like the outcome? then stop reading and start voting.
2
I'm a liberal Democrat who lives in a Republican county in the Midwest. I voted for President Obama twice and would do so for a third term if I could. But I'll also fault Obama for failing to prosecute the elite bankers, financiers and Wall Street tycoons and their enablers who helped cause the catastrophic crash of 2008. Maybe this is not detected in Manhattan or other coastal enclaves, but anger still resonates throughout much of the rest of the country over how financial elites skated away from responsibility and accountability for their transgressions.
93
What a silly puff piece. What you got wrong about Trump? Irrelevant.
What you got wrong, especially in this piece, is underestimating the degree to which the American electorate is sick and tired of the same old, same old, bloated, inefficient, ineffective, unaccountable government devoid of people that have ever had to invest their own money to make something positive happen.
This isn't about Trump. It's about Dubya campaigning on smaller government, and fiscal prudence to ride the conservative winds, and then not doing a single conservative thing in his god-forsaken eight years (that's right, he actually grew government larger, and spent taxpayer dollars like a drunken Democrat sailor).
It's about Obama with his "cool" Cumbaya campaigning on bringing people together, and bridging the gaps, and making things happen by reaching across the aisle and then engaging in the most imperial, divisive, and get nothing good done Presidency in history.
Sick of these career liars. Trump is Trump. But it's not about what he is, it's about what he is not. A crass baboon that was not one of these pathetic career liars could have won the nomination.
What you got wrong, especially in this piece, is underestimating the degree to which the American electorate is sick and tired of the same old, same old, bloated, inefficient, ineffective, unaccountable government devoid of people that have ever had to invest their own money to make something positive happen.
This isn't about Trump. It's about Dubya campaigning on smaller government, and fiscal prudence to ride the conservative winds, and then not doing a single conservative thing in his god-forsaken eight years (that's right, he actually grew government larger, and spent taxpayer dollars like a drunken Democrat sailor).
It's about Obama with his "cool" Cumbaya campaigning on bringing people together, and bridging the gaps, and making things happen by reaching across the aisle and then engaging in the most imperial, divisive, and get nothing good done Presidency in history.
Sick of these career liars. Trump is Trump. But it's not about what he is, it's about what he is not. A crass baboon that was not one of these pathetic career liars could have won the nomination.
26
Still living in that world where Obama was guilty of an Imperial presidency, aren't you? Can I politely remind you of the oath taken by the Republican leadership on the night of his inauguration, no less, to never give Obama an inch? When they clearly stated their goal was to see a failed American President, a single termer?
So when you blame, be sure to blame your party, your Republican party for the rise of the sociopathic, racist Trump. As for President Obama, he would go down in history as one of the best this country ever had, inspite of the relentless disrespect heaped on him by you and your ilk.
So when you blame, be sure to blame your party, your Republican party for the rise of the sociopathic, racist Trump. As for President Obama, he would go down in history as one of the best this country ever had, inspite of the relentless disrespect heaped on him by you and your ilk.
So, who would be a good president?
trblmkr...
Who would be a good president? Somebody that says what he means, and means what he says. Somebody who's finger IS NOT in the air testing the political winds to know what next to promise to curry favor, and votes (even if he or she has no intention of delivering on that promise). Somebody that understands that he/she is spending our taxpayer dollars, so failure is not an option. Somebody that knows something about budgeting, and deal-making, and has spent his or her OWN MONEY to make positive things happen. Somebody not beholden to interest groups.
Hmmmm. Sounds a bit like Trump.
Who would be a good president? Somebody that says what he means, and means what he says. Somebody who's finger IS NOT in the air testing the political winds to know what next to promise to curry favor, and votes (even if he or she has no intention of delivering on that promise). Somebody that understands that he/she is spending our taxpayer dollars, so failure is not an option. Somebody that knows something about budgeting, and deal-making, and has spent his or her OWN MONEY to make positive things happen. Somebody not beholden to interest groups.
Hmmmm. Sounds a bit like Trump.
5
When Trump's poll numbers didn't immediately crash after pretty much everybody condemned him last summer for his remarks about illegal immigrants coming in from Mexico, I sensed that Trump's candidacy was no joke and something far more threatening to establishment Republicans than the campaign that had been waged 4 years earlier by Herman Cain. As it turned out, Cain's campaign in 2011 offered a taste of what a non-conventional candidate from the private sector and with a record of some success (unlike Carly Fiorina) could do if he had bigger name recognition and his womanizing ways were known to all and regarded with indifference. Remember that Cain quit in December 2011 when he could no longer handle scrutiny about his alleged extra-marital affairs. Obviously Trump's life is such an open book that he had no such concerns from day one.
Also, the San Bernardino shootings of December 2015 scared the living daylights out of prospective GOP voters. Trump's response was incendiary and deplorable, but again his poll numbers didn't go down.
Also, the San Bernardino shootings of December 2015 scared the living daylights out of prospective GOP voters. Trump's response was incendiary and deplorable, but again his poll numbers didn't go down.
6
Really tired of people mansplaining this. No one, not even the commentariat predicted just how low these low-information voters could go in their expression of disgust at the establishment. In retrospect it makes sense given the perfect storm of factors Nate mentions. Just add NAFTA and boom, field cleared. This is not because the electorate is now composed of a majority of forgotten blue collar workers and squeezed middle class families. What nonsense. The electorate was worse off four years ago and they still re-elected Obama. I've been taking bets on Clinton winning all day and haven't a single taker. She's going to absolutely demolish him.
4
Maybe many of the electorate want someone that will actually "execute' the laws of the nation as chief executive instead of ruling by personal fiat and popularity polls. Trump is called a racist xenophobe because he wants to enforce the immigration laws on the books and control our sovereign borders. That idea is now considered outrageous and fascist? Man, this nation does have problems!
19
Yes, a wall is fascist. So is a round up. Punishing employers with real, painful penalties would be good but I don't recall Drumpf saying anything about that.
Why exactly is a wall 'Fascist'?
Because controlling the borders of a country is wrong and all borders should be open to all comers?
Because controlling the borders of a country is wrong and all borders should be open to all comers?
3
Trump had one important idea, and several bad ones.
Trump was absolutely correct that illegal immigration is threatening to destroy the nation by driving down the wages of unskilled workers.
To get some idea of the magnitude of the problem consider population growth over the period 1980-2010, which according to census figures clocked in at 82 million, a 36% increase.
That population growth was driven not just by illegal immigration itself, but by children of illegal immigrants who are automatically US citizens, as well as chain migration, the sponsoring of other family members.
The problem is that when the population grows one needs to also grow resources to provide for the additional people. And the US has not been able to afford to do it.
Indeed, university education has become more expensive as the population has grown. Illegal immigration produces various problems such as increased rates of incarceration, and funds get shifted from education to prisons. California for example now spends about as much on "corrections" as it does on its university system. The US now has a per capita incarceration rate 14 times as high as Japan.
No, we should not be banning Muslims. Blaming China for America's trade problems is not likely to be effective.
But population growth is a severe problem, and one which liberals have refused to EVEN DISCUSS. Such discussion is essential in a democracy.
Censorship by liberals of "politically incorrect" views has destroyed our democracy.
Trump was absolutely correct that illegal immigration is threatening to destroy the nation by driving down the wages of unskilled workers.
To get some idea of the magnitude of the problem consider population growth over the period 1980-2010, which according to census figures clocked in at 82 million, a 36% increase.
That population growth was driven not just by illegal immigration itself, but by children of illegal immigrants who are automatically US citizens, as well as chain migration, the sponsoring of other family members.
The problem is that when the population grows one needs to also grow resources to provide for the additional people. And the US has not been able to afford to do it.
Indeed, university education has become more expensive as the population has grown. Illegal immigration produces various problems such as increased rates of incarceration, and funds get shifted from education to prisons. California for example now spends about as much on "corrections" as it does on its university system. The US now has a per capita incarceration rate 14 times as high as Japan.
No, we should not be banning Muslims. Blaming China for America's trade problems is not likely to be effective.
But population growth is a severe problem, and one which liberals have refused to EVEN DISCUSS. Such discussion is essential in a democracy.
Censorship by liberals of "politically incorrect" views has destroyed our democracy.
14
No, corporate money as "free speech" has destroyed our democracy.
If our captains of industry hadn't been so impatient to leapfrog Mexico in favor of China by a factor of 20 in terms of investment $$, Mexicans would have stayed home.
If our captains of industry hadn't been so impatient to leapfrog Mexico in favor of China by a factor of 20 in terms of investment $$, Mexicans would have stayed home.
1
The mainstream media control the opinions and thinking power of the country for more than 50 years now and they become an important part of the establishment and proudly so. It’s small wonder that their prejudice in favor of capital and its hegemony becomes faulty enough to render a self-inflicted comeuppance.
They write and broadcast reams of praise on Hillary Clinton, the pro-establishment stewardess of Wall Street, and besmirch anyone who dare challenge the establishment and its capital backer. Bernie Sanders comes to mind but Donald Trump, an unvarnished capitalist, could not escape pundits’ impugnment because they are not apologetics for capital and the status quo.
Their seemingly always effectual political hype backfires this year because the gullible have suddenly been wide awake to their dismal economic status and they have started to rebel.
As a new democratic revolution has arrived, people echo their anti-status-quo candidates by speaking out against alienation from the political system of the establishment.
Their belated epiphanies against establishment and capital hegemony imply that party-ism, gender-ism and skin-color-ism are no longer the acceptable ideologies of voters. Party affiliation, first of female president and first black president are meaningless if the candidate in question is anti-revolution and pro-status-quo.
History will witness for the new democratic revolutionary period beyond any doubt.
They write and broadcast reams of praise on Hillary Clinton, the pro-establishment stewardess of Wall Street, and besmirch anyone who dare challenge the establishment and its capital backer. Bernie Sanders comes to mind but Donald Trump, an unvarnished capitalist, could not escape pundits’ impugnment because they are not apologetics for capital and the status quo.
Their seemingly always effectual political hype backfires this year because the gullible have suddenly been wide awake to their dismal economic status and they have started to rebel.
As a new democratic revolution has arrived, people echo their anti-status-quo candidates by speaking out against alienation from the political system of the establishment.
Their belated epiphanies against establishment and capital hegemony imply that party-ism, gender-ism and skin-color-ism are no longer the acceptable ideologies of voters. Party affiliation, first of female president and first black president are meaningless if the candidate in question is anti-revolution and pro-status-quo.
History will witness for the new democratic revolutionary period beyond any doubt.
8
I've never enjoyed watching election cycles -- with their excruciating debates, phony candidate promises, and phony candidates.
But this past one is different. Bernie and Trump made the difference. They perceived the absolute disgust the American people have with the Beltway and Citizens United holding us hostage to whatever corporations want.
I've had a tough year. My husband of 40 years died last September. Keeping a house and home together for my 2 college-attending kids is challenging (they both work and commute to local schools to save money). One bright spot has been listening to Trump on the stump. Really. I get a smile on my face after a long day, and he fills me with hope.
I once thought of myself as a liberal, but 8 years of a lackluster economy and healthcare that costs me $10k per year before a $10k deductible has left us never visiting a doctor as well as nearly broke.
Bring on The Donald.
But this past one is different. Bernie and Trump made the difference. They perceived the absolute disgust the American people have with the Beltway and Citizens United holding us hostage to whatever corporations want.
I've had a tough year. My husband of 40 years died last September. Keeping a house and home together for my 2 college-attending kids is challenging (they both work and commute to local schools to save money). One bright spot has been listening to Trump on the stump. Really. I get a smile on my face after a long day, and he fills me with hope.
I once thought of myself as a liberal, but 8 years of a lackluster economy and healthcare that costs me $10k per year before a $10k deductible has left us never visiting a doctor as well as nearly broke.
Bring on The Donald.
45
And be careful what you wish for. And the economy is doing just fine, by all indicators.
Good luck to you and your kids. Hope things pick up for all of us.
7
Not sure what the Donald is gonna do about your healthcare.
Madam, if you were married for 40 years (btw, my condolences) you should be eligible for Medicare or will be soon.
Good luck.
Madam, if you were married for 40 years (btw, my condolences) you should be eligible for Medicare or will be soon.
Good luck.
1
Mr Cohn's analysis overlooks one of Hillary's biggest obstacles: with that FBI email investigation hanging over her head, Hillary has had no choice but to endorse Obama's economic policies and suppress any criticism of Obama's record.
A reminder that Obama plays politics Chicago style. Obama is waiting to pick up the same $150 million payoff that the Rich gave Bill Clinton -- and that transfer will attract less attention if they can hand $500,000 "speaking fees" to an elder stateman vice a corrupt hack.
Hence Trump can tap into the seething anger in this country whereas Hillary has to identify with the elites who have dumped such misery and poverty onto the people. And the news corporations' meme of "white anger" is utter hogwash -- the black community has endured seven years of unemployment averaging 15% and Hispanic Americans have suffered almost as badly --roughly12%. Meanwhile, Harvard Guy Obama and Fat Larry Summers ensured that the Harvard Endowment Fund recovered that $10 billion in losses it suffered from Dean Larry's derivatives bets in the runup to the 2007 crisis.
A reminder that Obama plays politics Chicago style. Obama is waiting to pick up the same $150 million payoff that the Rich gave Bill Clinton -- and that transfer will attract less attention if they can hand $500,000 "speaking fees" to an elder stateman vice a corrupt hack.
Hence Trump can tap into the seething anger in this country whereas Hillary has to identify with the elites who have dumped such misery and poverty onto the people. And the news corporations' meme of "white anger" is utter hogwash -- the black community has endured seven years of unemployment averaging 15% and Hispanic Americans have suffered almost as badly --roughly12%. Meanwhile, Harvard Guy Obama and Fat Larry Summers ensured that the Harvard Endowment Fund recovered that $10 billion in losses it suffered from Dean Larry's derivatives bets in the runup to the 2007 crisis.
10
trump has managed to alienate everybody except poor white men. that's whnat's going to kill him in november.
None of the above. It the mistake was underestimating how yanked off the Middle Class is, and its growing certainty that they are engaged in a zero-sum game with the Elites for their survival or extermination. This proves that the Middle Class Consciousness is solidifying and it is in a serious struggle for its existence.
The Elites underestimated the growing knowledge of the Middle Class of its real predicament and the growing class consciousness that they must stand together and win as the only alternative.
Trump led them to believe their deepest fears were true, and defined a path to end their fall into extinction.
The Elites underestimated the growing knowledge of the Middle Class of its real predicament and the growing class consciousness that they must stand together and win as the only alternative.
Trump led them to believe their deepest fears were true, and defined a path to end their fall into extinction.
18
It is hard to say that, as a republican, I am proud of the candidate that we have produced for this election due to the negative publicity that he brings upon himself. However, views aside, Trump has been the most productive in promoting his candidacy, which led to this "unforeseen" win.
2
Maybe Americans are smart enough to realize that fixating on whether words are acceptable or offensive is a colossal waste of time, and we spend entirely too much time focusing on about unimportant things.
Our workers have to compete in a global economy. That's what's important, not some list of acceptable terminology or adherence to politically correct rules of etiquette.
Priorities. Thank goodness someone has them straight.
Our workers have to compete in a global economy. That's what's important, not some list of acceptable terminology or adherence to politically correct rules of etiquette.
Priorities. Thank goodness someone has them straight.
9
My own impression, is that Trump clinched it when he spoke boldly about suspending Muslim immigration, at a time when horror stories were coming out of Europe about the migrant crisis, but at the same time being censored by the mainstream press, both in Europe and in the U.S. We have a constant, paternalistic dumb beat from our leaders, lecturing us about tolerance and even welcome, toward a very bigoted, misogynistic, dark age culture that seeks to annihilate enlightened western culture, and makes inroads toward that goal on a regular basis. The cognitive dissonance is unbearable. Only Trump addressed it without sugar coating. I find him shocking, but that one stance was a hook for me.
29
The Republican party used to be reasonable people with conservative values, who believed that government played a useful role in society. Over time it has morphed to reflect the values of the ultra wealthy: as little government as possible, taxes as low as possible, and free markets for all. But they needed to form a coalition to get what they wanted, and convince enough voters that low taxes are good for them and that government is the enemy. They also adopted social positions to appeal to evangelicals and other social conservatives. And they had a good run. Taxes for the ultra wealthy are far lower than they were before Reagan and their share of income is far higher.
But over time these policies have hollowed out the middle class. Decent paying and stable jobs for people without post-secondary education are nearly nonexistent. And for those who can afford to go to college, the costs are so high that student loan debt hampers the ability of many to make a decent living. That has caused their coalition to fall apart. But the Republican elites have ignored these concerns and simply doubled down on the low taxes, no government angle, and Republicans just aren't buying it any more. Every single Republican except Trump was offering the same old, same old. Trump just happens to be in the right place at the right time.
But over time these policies have hollowed out the middle class. Decent paying and stable jobs for people without post-secondary education are nearly nonexistent. And for those who can afford to go to college, the costs are so high that student loan debt hampers the ability of many to make a decent living. That has caused their coalition to fall apart. But the Republican elites have ignored these concerns and simply doubled down on the low taxes, no government angle, and Republicans just aren't buying it any more. Every single Republican except Trump was offering the same old, same old. Trump just happens to be in the right place at the right time.
13
Asimov wrote about this phenomenon 50 years ago when he included 'The Mule' in his Foundation series. His character unexpectedly disrupted Hari Seldon's well designed plans to avoid a Galactic Dark Ages. I'm afraid whether or not The Trump wins in November, he has unleashed pent-up forces that will damage civilization for many years to come (of course, Nixon, Reagan and W certainly helped set this course) .
13
"I - underestimated Mr. Trump" writes Nate.
No, Nate, You overestimated a large segment of the American people. Trump was just being Trump...his typical odious self. Take from this what you may...I shall stop insulting now.
No, Nate, You overestimated a large segment of the American people. Trump was just being Trump...his typical odious self. Take from this what you may...I shall stop insulting now.
11
Another insult from the north ,eh? We get enough of them from the US folks commenting here.
9
There is a certain kinship among the progressives....knows no borders.
3
Perhaps if the US got rid of birthright citizenship, most issues with illegal immigration will go away, as once immigrants know that all they have to do is have a baby on US soil and they qualify for every social service imaginable, it is not exactly a formula for getting the best and brightest and hardest working.
You know, like Canada did in 2012?
You know, like Canada did in 2012?
5
It's the economy. He was the one talking about it from the start. The others were too concerned with not being Obama.
20
The success Donald Trump cannot be placed at the doorstep of the Republican party as isolated from the rest of the electorate. When in open primaries in which both parties nominees are being actively contested there is a flow of Democrats to vote in the Republican Primary we can pretty much assume their votes were not for the conservative Cruz because they would have already been republicans and not for the mainstream Kasich because they would already be republicans but for Trump. The 167,000 Pennsylvania Democrats who changed registration to vote republican were also probably over 99% voting for Trump.
Populism is usually a Democratic Party thing. Democrats would be wise to take heed to Trump's message because it may appeal even more to the blue collar democrat than to the republicans.
Populism is usually a Democratic Party thing. Democrats would be wise to take heed to Trump's message because it may appeal even more to the blue collar democrat than to the republicans.
6
The fact that, if he were running on the Democratic side, Trump would still "be counting on superdelegates" is a strong argument against the Democratic Party's system as it stands.
I prefer that a very popular insurgent would be able to topple the carefully-laid plans of the parties. The parties are awash in money from the well-to-do and corporations.
I prefer that a very popular insurgent would be able to topple the carefully-laid plans of the parties. The parties are awash in money from the well-to-do and corporations.
13
In my mind, the simplicity of Mr. Trump's speeches, rallies, and other antics played into his huge success and the demise of the establishment republican reign. Accompany this one-dimensional rhetoric with a carefree attitude towards political correctness, and you have yourself undying, feverent support for the Republican Nominee for the 2016 election
8
I'm going to call part of Trump's success the "Uber effect." Uber and Lyft were competitors in nearly all major markets. Then Uber had a string of negative publicity about drivers not being considered employees, drivers not being vetted, poaching Lyft drivers, cities banning Uber, taxi drivers protesting and on. Then there was unforeseeable negative publicity: a driver was a killer, a neurologist rider flips out and attacks a driver. All bad, but it kept Uber's name in the media.
Lyft tried to be the good guy and kept its name out of the press, for sure avoiding negative publicity. They tried to pay their drivers more than Uber. Well, where are they now? Uber is now the dominant player and Lyft is a shadow. There are certainly more reasons for Lyft's failre, but I believe a dominant reason is that all that negative publicity actually piqued interest in Uber.
My conclusion: as long as negative publicity is not directed towards your competence, it's actually good publicity. Trump said all these outrageous things, and you could say it was un-Presidential, but no one could say the man was incompetent.
Lyft tried to be the good guy and kept its name out of the press, for sure avoiding negative publicity. They tried to pay their drivers more than Uber. Well, where are they now? Uber is now the dominant player and Lyft is a shadow. There are certainly more reasons for Lyft's failre, but I believe a dominant reason is that all that negative publicity actually piqued interest in Uber.
My conclusion: as long as negative publicity is not directed towards your competence, it's actually good publicity. Trump said all these outrageous things, and you could say it was un-Presidential, but no one could say the man was incompetent.
6
As the old saying goes "There is no such thing as bad publicity".
2
"No one could say the man was incompetent"? Really? Give me a break - he inherited a bundle of money - could have done better in a general market Dow Jones account - instead started businesses and had to file bankruptcy 4 times (obviously isn't very good at managing his own business) - sent his manufacturing overseas to China - has no respect or couth, saying things that would get most kids suspended from school - married all foreign women - I guess American women wouldn't put up with him - and has vividly demonstrated his complete ignorance about most crucial facts by simply yelling louder and more offensively whenever he doesn't like the question or doesn't know the answer! He comes nowhere near to making America strong again - he has insulted more than 70%+ of our population and has shamed us to the world with his bigotry, racism, ignorance, bullying, vulgar and boorish behavior.
1
Bobby Knight said it very well (paraphrasing) when asked if he though Trump would now start to pick up the Republican platform. He answered, I don't care about the Republicans or the Democrats, I want what's best for America.
The fact that many people believe the know what a "Party" stands for and blindly follow in group-think, to the exclusion of "the best idea put forth" is a little tragic. At least at first appearance, Trump breaks this mold.
The fact that many people believe the know what a "Party" stands for and blindly follow in group-think, to the exclusion of "the best idea put forth" is a little tragic. At least at first appearance, Trump breaks this mold.
16
Rather an odd admission by Mr. Cohn that he doesn't watch much TV when the leading candidate was a white hot TV presence whose candidacy was fueled mainly by TV coverage?
19
A good cable package with all the news is expensive; 10 times more than in Europe and print journalists don't make a lot of $.
i think that says more about the candidate than cohn. you don't go down to mcdonald's when you're looking for a good steak.
Mr. Cohn asks if we assumed that voters would never nominate a reality-TV star.
Perhaps he is unfamiliar with the cable show line up.
News and world affairs are practically non existent, but the Kardashians are well represented.
So are Real Housewives of NYC, Miami and numerous other cities.
Wouldn't want to exclude Duck Dynasty. The list goes on.
I am not surprised.
Perhaps he is unfamiliar with the cable show line up.
News and world affairs are practically non existent, but the Kardashians are well represented.
So are Real Housewives of NYC, Miami and numerous other cities.
Wouldn't want to exclude Duck Dynasty. The list goes on.
I am not surprised.
10
Nate Cohn still doesn't get it.
A key reason why the pundits got it wrong is the same reason that Trump won: they and their media masters have adopted Trump's view of the world as a reality-TV show. Hardly any of the polls or pundits talk about issues without bloviating, shouting about the numbers, and speaking in vapid generalizations -- just like Trump does. By validating Trump's style, Cohn and Co. have validated Trump's substance in the eyes of voters. He himself figured this out early and rode his symbiotic relationship with the press, pundits, and pollsters to victory.
If the Times and their increasingly mindless 'Upshot' view of politics continue to portray the campaign as reality TV, we'll be seeing this reality on our TVs in November and for four horrifying years thereafter.
A key reason why the pundits got it wrong is the same reason that Trump won: they and their media masters have adopted Trump's view of the world as a reality-TV show. Hardly any of the polls or pundits talk about issues without bloviating, shouting about the numbers, and speaking in vapid generalizations -- just like Trump does. By validating Trump's style, Cohn and Co. have validated Trump's substance in the eyes of voters. He himself figured this out early and rode his symbiotic relationship with the press, pundits, and pollsters to victory.
If the Times and their increasingly mindless 'Upshot' view of politics continue to portray the campaign as reality TV, we'll be seeing this reality on our TVs in November and for four horrifying years thereafter.
5
Reality check time! If you're still blaming Trump's success on the media you need to give yourself a few hard dope slaps while looking into a mirror and repeating over and again, 'How is it I am so out of touch with the mood of the American people and is there a cure'?
27
I'm a Wyoming Republican. Trump is an amateur, elected for the same reason that the Nazi Party elevated the amateur Hitler: people are fed up with the elite and want to throw them to the wolves. Ironically, just as Central Americans flee the violence of their homelands (caused by American destabilization) American white people have thrown their lot in with an amateur who will demolish the world in the name of American superiority. Ted Cruz and Liz Cheney are the 2020 Warstate candidates. I tried to help Sanders, but he's too cowardly to call-out the fascist backbone of America:
http://www.wyolaramie.com/warstate.jpg
http://www.wyolaramie.com/warstate.jpg
4
This isn't funny. Emotions are driving the public to make horrible decisions. You can't compel people to think and reflect when that skill is absent. How can a country move forward this way?
6
Well, they sure won't move forward under Clinton. Same expensive piece of junk we bought in the '90s in a shiny new package, and that's supposed to lead us into the future? No thanks. Time for something new, no matter how radical.
8
If you're implying a voter's dismay over Trump's confirmation equals the support of Clinton you're mistaken. And if you're interpreting Trump as radical that is also a mistake. There is nothing but heartbreak for the next 4 years no matter who is appointed.
1
@ Margaret
Thank goodness we finally saw the last of those eight years of peace and prosperity under Bill Clinton!
I hope never to see the likes of that again!
Thank goodness we finally saw the last of those eight years of peace and prosperity under Bill Clinton!
I hope never to see the likes of that again!
1
OK Nate, so you and your Republican Elites got it wrong about Trump. Wednesday morning quarterbacking ain't gonna make you smarter next time, because the next time is always, "this time, it's different."
The important question for you to ponder is what are you going to do about it now? Are you going to swallow pride and good sense and support Trump anyway because he will have the Republican nomination? Will you put survival of the Republican Party ahead of survival of our Republic?
The important question for you to ponder is what are you going to do about it now? Are you going to swallow pride and good sense and support Trump anyway because he will have the Republican nomination? Will you put survival of the Republican Party ahead of survival of our Republic?
3
Trump is the voice of anger.
Hopefully, anger will subside and reason will prevail during the general election.
You can't build a wall, you can't deny access to Muslim immigrants, and businesses will not reverse their decisions to export in an effort to increase profits. Oddly, all of these things are undemocratic, un-American, and not feasible for a capitalistic system.
Could it be that Trump's followers are so angry that they have are willing to have a non-democratic country? Sure seems like it to me.
But I am hopeful that sanity and reason will prevail by the general election.
Hopefully, anger will subside and reason will prevail during the general election.
You can't build a wall, you can't deny access to Muslim immigrants, and businesses will not reverse their decisions to export in an effort to increase profits. Oddly, all of these things are undemocratic, un-American, and not feasible for a capitalistic system.
Could it be that Trump's followers are so angry that they have are willing to have a non-democratic country? Sure seems like it to me.
But I am hopeful that sanity and reason will prevail by the general election.
13
"You can't build a wall, you can't deny access to Muslim immigrants"
Why not? In the past the US has enforced immigration policies that greatly restricted the influx of Asians. The example of the EU has shown that Muslims will not integrate with a secular society so they should be left to their Islamic paradises with Shira Law.
Why not? In the past the US has enforced immigration policies that greatly restricted the influx of Asians. The example of the EU has shown that Muslims will not integrate with a secular society so they should be left to their Islamic paradises with Shira Law.
11
Do we even want a capitalistic system anymore? I think not.
1
"...You can't build a wall, you can't deny access to Muslim immigrants, and businesses will not reverse their decisions to export in an effort to increase profits..."
Why not?
After all, our immigration policy changes in 1965 have not led to the prosperity we were all promised and, in fact, have done just the opposite because...wait for it...it turns out that importing tens of millions of uneducated low skilled poor people does not make a country more prosperous.
Who could have guessed?
Why not?
After all, our immigration policy changes in 1965 have not led to the prosperity we were all promised and, in fact, have done just the opposite because...wait for it...it turns out that importing tens of millions of uneducated low skilled poor people does not make a country more prosperous.
Who could have guessed?
5
Much has been made of 'expecting the unexpected' in this political season, but this is euphemism. Nate, I think you were up against something that defies easy explanation or prediction, what can be best described as a political trajectory based largely on irrational reasoning. Consider: the republican party is not offering rational choices, not in candidates, certainly not in policies, and what the party wound up with is seems to be nearly the worst of both. What reigns here is marketing, and Trump knows how to market illusions even more shrewdly than the republican party. Trump beat them at their own game, though the republicans certainly must get credit: they've spent decades building the platform that a figure like Trump would eventually stride upon.
3
It isn't that he isn't offering rational choices - it's that he is not offering the same old, tired choices that haven't worked. People want a change. They don't want to be ignored anymore. If politicians wonder how this could have happened, all they need to do is look in the mirror.
8
Trump, who, after all, is an entertainer, seems to have taken a page out of Jon Stewart's playbook for the Daily Show. Trump may have very different views on important issues than Stewart, but his style is quite similar. Both have used sarcasm whenever possible, ridiculing the age, appearance, gender- and/or race-related characteristics, accent, etc., of anyone in the opposing camp, while pretending that they, members of the above-the-fray elite, understand the struggles of the group they are discussing/speaking to/advocating for on any particular day. The Daily Show and its clones are extremely popular, so that the same sort of strategy has worked for Trump is not terribly surprising.
4
Yes. Jon Stewart on the Daily Show was the Patron Saint of liberal smugness, which liberals ate up like their stash of Hallloween candy. They sure don't like it when the shoe is on the other foot, though, do they?
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/09/opinion/sunday/jon-stewart-patron-sain...
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/09/opinion/sunday/jon-stewart-patron-sain...
6
the daily show actually uses complete sentences, and builds coherent arguments, though. trump talks like a verbal hamster wheel.
3
I hate to say it, but you've missed the point again. Everyone underestimated how many people -- many of them lower educated white males -- would respond to the misogyny and racial and immigrant animus that Trump projects.
11
Help. Ten words or less. As of today, what is a Republican? Okay, fifteen words.
1
I don't think enough has been said about Donald Trump's star run on "The Apprentice." If millions of people hadn't seen him on that show, year after year, would he have been as attractive to them? Americans love celebrities -- he started his campaign as one.
8
You underestimated the "stupid" factor that has become prevalent in America due to years of dumbing down. Anyone with the ability to think and listen realizes that Trump's rants are just that -- rants. He has offered no actual programs or solutions. He's offered sound bites. "I'll build a wall and make Mexico pay for it." "I'll replace Obamacare." Of course he has no actual plan for replacing it. "I'll ban all Muslims from entering the US." No plan. "I'll bring back the manufacturing jobs." No plan -- just empty words that non-thinking people in a knee jerk reaction grab on to because it makes them "feel good."
His grade school name calling, his foul mouth, his fixation on "small hands" and bathroom habits -- he's hideous to anyone with a sense of decency, class, common sense. We've had thirty years of Limbaugh etal screaming on rightwing radio, name calling, demeaning, ratcheting up hatred of blacks, women, ethnicities, etc. and we have arrived at this day -- when a boorish, lout born with millions is now capable of having foolish people vote for him because in their small brains "he tells it like it is." The reality is that he looks at those "followers" as losers -- people so far beneath himself that he wouldn't spend an iota of time with them. He's laid out his rules -- $100,000 to join his club a Mar A Lago -- no one else need darken the door.
His grade school name calling, his foul mouth, his fixation on "small hands" and bathroom habits -- he's hideous to anyone with a sense of decency, class, common sense. We've had thirty years of Limbaugh etal screaming on rightwing radio, name calling, demeaning, ratcheting up hatred of blacks, women, ethnicities, etc. and we have arrived at this day -- when a boorish, lout born with millions is now capable of having foolish people vote for him because in their small brains "he tells it like it is." The reality is that he looks at those "followers" as losers -- people so far beneath himself that he wouldn't spend an iota of time with them. He's laid out his rules -- $100,000 to join his club a Mar A Lago -- no one else need darken the door.
12
You need to stop swallowing the liberal MSM swill about Trump. Do your own research. Trump has no actual solutions? On Healthcare alone you can check out his solution here: https://www.donaldjtrump.com/positions/healthcare-reform
Just because you don't like his proposed solution doesn't mean he isn't offering one. You have to remember, the President doesn't make the laws, Congress does so anyone going into office will need to collaborate with that body to make any solution happen. You may recall Bill Clinton (Hillary, really) learned this lesson when he was president and tried implementing universal health care.
Venture out a little and read something besides those whiny liberal websites and you might find that he is proposing more solutions than you thing. Again, if you disagree with his proposals, that doesn't mean they aren't there.
Just because you don't like his proposed solution doesn't mean he isn't offering one. You have to remember, the President doesn't make the laws, Congress does so anyone going into office will need to collaborate with that body to make any solution happen. You may recall Bill Clinton (Hillary, really) learned this lesson when he was president and tried implementing universal health care.
Venture out a little and read something besides those whiny liberal websites and you might find that he is proposing more solutions than you thing. Again, if you disagree with his proposals, that doesn't mean they aren't there.
8
Several commenters say Trump has tapped into a strong anti-immigration sentiment. Not exactly. Many of us simply think there's a distinction between "legal immigrants" and "illegal immigrants" -- simple as that. The Times often just uses the term "immigrant" without drawing that critical distinction. When it mentions the distinction at all, it does so obliquely with terms such as "undocumented worker," which suggests that the immigrant in question simply left his identification papers in his other pants and now they're at the cleaners.
Many of us – right, left, center and otherwise – just want to enforce the immigration laws, period. We don't see the need for those laws to be "reformed" -- much less agree that the Administration may simply ignore those laws because, in its view, Congress has shirked its responsibility to enforce those laws.
Don't make it harder for an immigrant to come in. Just insist that they do it legally. Seems fairly straightforward.
Many of us – right, left, center and otherwise – just want to enforce the immigration laws, period. We don't see the need for those laws to be "reformed" -- much less agree that the Administration may simply ignore those laws because, in its view, Congress has shirked its responsibility to enforce those laws.
Don't make it harder for an immigrant to come in. Just insist that they do it legally. Seems fairly straightforward.
46
It's like Bill Clinton said many years ago, "It's the economy, stupid."
The middle class has been left behind. Their incomes are stagnant, older middle class people are afraid of losing their jobs to someone half their age that will work twice as long for half the pay. People are literally walking into the country with impunity and the government has no idea where they are or if they are still even here.
It's not necessarily Trump per se, it is his message and it is getting out there and people are heeding it. Ross Perot spoke of all these issues many years ago and no one paid attention to him because he didn't have the bombast or spoke the way Trump speaks to the people today.
You can make this all about him and his so-called views but the real reason why he crept up on everyone and won the nomination is because he stayed on message- a message that resonates. And he will win the "Reagan Democrats" of many years ago.
Say what you want about Trump but one thing he is not is bought and paid for by his party.
The middle class has been left behind. Their incomes are stagnant, older middle class people are afraid of losing their jobs to someone half their age that will work twice as long for half the pay. People are literally walking into the country with impunity and the government has no idea where they are or if they are still even here.
It's not necessarily Trump per se, it is his message and it is getting out there and people are heeding it. Ross Perot spoke of all these issues many years ago and no one paid attention to him because he didn't have the bombast or spoke the way Trump speaks to the people today.
You can make this all about him and his so-called views but the real reason why he crept up on everyone and won the nomination is because he stayed on message- a message that resonates. And he will win the "Reagan Democrats" of many years ago.
Say what you want about Trump but one thing he is not is bought and paid for by his party.
21
thanks for the "per se". otherwise, we have the image of a bloated weasel-haired charlatan being the image of the salvation of the underclass.
Is that how Hillary is referred to these days?
3
It's true--what Nate ignores in his list are the actual Trump supporters. I would like more discussions, especially personal interviews, with his supporters, including accounts of their backgrounds, past and present economic and social circumstances, and the like. As far as I know, I don't know anyone who supports Trump, and can't conceive of knowing anyone who supports Trump. That's a lack in my understanding of my country, and the Times could help, at least, in correcting that.
More in depth reporting, more than just "he says what I think."
More in depth reporting, more than just "he says what I think."
9
You want to interview me? I started my own company, have 8 employees and am very well off and I do support Trump.
You really should tone down your self-righteous indignation.
You really should tone down your self-righteous indignation.
6
There's a very good article in the Atlantic containing interviews of Trump supporters :
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/03/who-are-donald-trump...
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/03/who-are-donald-trump...
1
Sinclair Lewis said, " When fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross."
Delacroix's "Liberty" carried a French flag, a bayoneted rifle and great cleavage. The cross was missing because despite the excesses of France's democratic zeal, the cross was bound to Feudal Aristocracy and the Divine right of kings. The Enlightenment preceded democracy--secularizing political authority, marginalizing religion. A battle still being waged in France.
But the Enlightenment itself needs resuscitation in the US.
US Liberty--has become "free from government regulation" championed by three distinct forces:
1. Neo-Aristocracy--or plutocracy--moneyrule; not rule by the landed gentry but by mega corporations--the new principalities. The 1% being the new princes.
2. Neo-theocracy--hidden under the democratic flag is the cross of neo-theocracy and its inherent monolatry--religious tyranny.
3. Libertarianism--free-from government can mean No rule at all--the "Libertarian" ideal--often advocated as a smokescreen for plutocracy--as though freedom from government enhances private power and does not just mean subjugation by the rich--government BY and FOR them. Just as "freedom of religion" can be camouflage for the tyranny of one religion over its competition--and the march to monolatry.
The grim reaper carries a sythe; he follows Trump's fascism--a loose cannon marching to the GOP canon. A crucifix followed Cruz. Libertarian smoke followed Rand Paul.
Delacroix's "Liberty" carried a French flag, a bayoneted rifle and great cleavage. The cross was missing because despite the excesses of France's democratic zeal, the cross was bound to Feudal Aristocracy and the Divine right of kings. The Enlightenment preceded democracy--secularizing political authority, marginalizing religion. A battle still being waged in France.
But the Enlightenment itself needs resuscitation in the US.
US Liberty--has become "free from government regulation" championed by three distinct forces:
1. Neo-Aristocracy--or plutocracy--moneyrule; not rule by the landed gentry but by mega corporations--the new principalities. The 1% being the new princes.
2. Neo-theocracy--hidden under the democratic flag is the cross of neo-theocracy and its inherent monolatry--religious tyranny.
3. Libertarianism--free-from government can mean No rule at all--the "Libertarian" ideal--often advocated as a smokescreen for plutocracy--as though freedom from government enhances private power and does not just mean subjugation by the rich--government BY and FOR them. Just as "freedom of religion" can be camouflage for the tyranny of one religion over its competition--and the march to monolatry.
The grim reaper carries a sythe; he follows Trump's fascism--a loose cannon marching to the GOP canon. A crucifix followed Cruz. Libertarian smoke followed Rand Paul.
2
To be successful in politics one must appear to be able and determined to succeed. Appearances matter more than actual accomplishments because voters are not usually making decisions based upon what they know has been accomplished but upon what they want to be accomplished. Trump has been involved in entertainment through the mass media for years and he knows how to find out what audiences want and to present himself so that they want to seem more of him. Trump talks of things that he knows his audiences feel about strongly and that makes them think that he will act as they want, which makes him irresistible to a lot of people. Trump projects himself as a dominant and dynamic personality able to accomplish what he wants where others do not even try, which appeals to the attraction most people feel towards authoritarian leaders. The reason that people like Cohn did not see Trump's potential was that they were looking at the man's proposals being unrealistic and his expertise being thin, they overlooked how he appears to those who want solutions but do not really understand the relevant facts.
1
Americans refuse to think critically about these candidates. Everyone is in an echo chamber, unwilling to seek or attend to facts that contradict rumors and emotions. I didn't think I'd be saying this at the tender age of 41, but younger Americans appear to be the most confused and misinformed generation in history. All the world's information at our fingertips has only served to befuddle, it seems.
3
A lot of what has driven Trump's success will never be seen, or ir seen, acknowledged by the media.
A good example is Nafta, approved of by politicians and media everywhere. And that approval based on the "overall benefit" of the deal.
Overall benefit doesn't mean everyone benefits. And those who didn't were ignored, or told it was their fault.
Except by Trump. He told people he understood why they were angry, that they had reason to be, and that things could change.
It's that simple.
A good example is Nafta, approved of by politicians and media everywhere. And that approval based on the "overall benefit" of the deal.
Overall benefit doesn't mean everyone benefits. And those who didn't were ignored, or told it was their fault.
Except by Trump. He told people he understood why they were angry, that they had reason to be, and that things could change.
It's that simple.
28
Siobhan:
A lot of what politicians and pundits have said and written has turned out to be, in the end, insignificant to Americans. So they have taken things into their own hands and, essentially, written off the pundit class.
The pundit class is trying to stay relevant (hence, Cohn's column). Instead of being the insiders, they are the outsiders now to Trump and his supporters.
A lot of what politicians and pundits have said and written has turned out to be, in the end, insignificant to Americans. So they have taken things into their own hands and, essentially, written off the pundit class.
The pundit class is trying to stay relevant (hence, Cohn's column). Instead of being the insiders, they are the outsiders now to Trump and his supporters.
6
The party elites in both parties do not listen to the citizens that have elected them - this is established fact. Trump and Sanders are a great big shout in their faces that things have to change. It's a demonstration without the marches, without the militarized police, without teargas, and property destructive riots. Americans are sick of the governance/lack of governance going on at their expense. They are saying get out of your well-compensated ivory towers, your fundraisers, good-old-boys comfort zone and govern for all the people all the time, or get out.
28
The real reason the pundits got it wrong is that they don't understand how elections are won in 2016. The best illustration of this is the "debate" Ted Cruz had with a Trump supporter in Marion, Indiana. Despite all of his Princeton-honed debating skills and the various facts he was able to cite in his favor, he was quickly shouted down by the Trump supporter who did nothing but regurgitate Trump's slogans. Then, at the end of it all, the media portrayed Cruz as having been "owned" by the Trump supporter, even though Cruz had all the facts on his side. The bottom line is that elections are won in 2016 by being loud, grabbing attention, and getting the media on your side (if only for the headlines). People do not care what facts you can recite if they're too bored to pay attention - and they will not be going to a candidates' website to figure them out either. That's something Cruz, Bush, and Rubio - each much more qualified candidates - never got. Trump got it. He knew winning elections was all about pandering to the short attention span of middle America. Hence the slogans, the tweets, the nicknames for his opponents, etc. Like it or not, he played the election game like a pro. To me, Trump's rise to the nomination seemed to be a given even as far back as last summer. Perhaps if the pundits were not so myopic as to not look beyond the inside-the-Beltway scene where people actually take time looking at policy papers, they'd understand that.
5
The establishment media is too cozy with establishment party hierarchies. No surprise they don't understand voter dissatisfaction and voting patterns. The system works for them, ergo, the system works. Both the Trump and Sanders campaigns are the inevitable endgame of a country run by, and for, the oligarch class. Credit Republican voters for seeing the utter pointlessness of voting for establishment candidates. Insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting different results.
The sop for the deeply useless self-appointed, blinkered and cosseted pundit class is that their miserable record of prognostication doesn't threaten their privileged access to mass media. As long as they espouse conventional wisdom and understand their opinions are bought and paid for by their corporate masters.
The sop for the deeply useless self-appointed, blinkered and cosseted pundit class is that their miserable record of prognostication doesn't threaten their privileged access to mass media. As long as they espouse conventional wisdom and understand their opinions are bought and paid for by their corporate masters.
28
Amen.
2
Trump has succeeded in giving voice to many frustrated Americans who feel that work opportunities have greatly diminished since the Great Recession. Although the world is complex and interconnected, Trump offers a simple "us vs. them" worldview that hearkens back to the good old days when America was fighting communism and "men were men".
What might not have been foreseen a year ago is how skillfully Trump has exploited the media and turned the presidential debates into a spectacle of must-see reality TV. Because the media wants to attract viewers at any cost, they have allowed Trump to "dial-in" for cable TV talks which provide free media exposure, but do not offer meaningful policy content as he cleverly evades direct answers to basic questions. Buckle your seat belts for a nasty election campaign that will be fought 24/7 on cable TV and social media...
What might not have been foreseen a year ago is how skillfully Trump has exploited the media and turned the presidential debates into a spectacle of must-see reality TV. Because the media wants to attract viewers at any cost, they have allowed Trump to "dial-in" for cable TV talks which provide free media exposure, but do not offer meaningful policy content as he cleverly evades direct answers to basic questions. Buckle your seat belts for a nasty election campaign that will be fought 24/7 on cable TV and social media...
9
It was obvious since just before the 2012 results that part of the strength of the Republican party is the result of a weakness of the Democratic party: elitism. Or, more to the point, classism.
Many Dems seem to forget that Obama's victories were achieved thru a coalition that required not just white economically-privileged, college-educated urbanites, but also working class, rural and economically-marginalized Democrats as well. At the roots of the Democratic party is the blue collar vote, especially, but not exclusively, the Black blue collar vote. Ordinary folks, both Black & white. Yet Dem leaders appear to have forgotten those people, & in comment sections everywhere Democrats can't distance themselves fast enough from poor or rural or blue collar Americans.
It's classism, & it drives voters away & weakens the Democratic party. It's time democrats listen to & speak to & for the more marginalized members of the American public. Every time a Dem voter makes a derogatory comment about "rednecks" or "low information voters" or "ignorant, uneducated hillbillies", their classism sends yet another potential Democrat into the arms of the Republicans. It's frustrating to see the Democratic party weakened by that kind of ignorance & prejudice.
Many Dems seem to forget that Obama's victories were achieved thru a coalition that required not just white economically-privileged, college-educated urbanites, but also working class, rural and economically-marginalized Democrats as well. At the roots of the Democratic party is the blue collar vote, especially, but not exclusively, the Black blue collar vote. Ordinary folks, both Black & white. Yet Dem leaders appear to have forgotten those people, & in comment sections everywhere Democrats can't distance themselves fast enough from poor or rural or blue collar Americans.
It's classism, & it drives voters away & weakens the Democratic party. It's time democrats listen to & speak to & for the more marginalized members of the American public. Every time a Dem voter makes a derogatory comment about "rednecks" or "low information voters" or "ignorant, uneducated hillbillies", their classism sends yet another potential Democrat into the arms of the Republicans. It's frustrating to see the Democratic party weakened by that kind of ignorance & prejudice.
25
The problem is that those people already left the democratic party. Democrats insult republicans, republicans insult democrats. It is part of the dysfunction of our society.
Now, are there still some 'rednecks' who are democrats? Sure, but there are some Hispanics who are republican, but that doesn't stop the GOP from insulting them since most of them are for the other team.
Both parties have there fair share of poor folks and rich folks, but only one party is in favor of taxing those rich folks and increasing the social safety net. If the 'rednecks' still want to vote for the GOP, then they can't blame it on classism.
Now, are there still some 'rednecks' who are democrats? Sure, but there are some Hispanics who are republican, but that doesn't stop the GOP from insulting them since most of them are for the other team.
Both parties have there fair share of poor folks and rich folks, but only one party is in favor of taxing those rich folks and increasing the social safety net. If the 'rednecks' still want to vote for the GOP, then they can't blame it on classism.
Mr Silver, the problem I have with your analysis is that it is entirely based on external factors, and does not give any credit to Trump at all.
Trump made it clear from the beginning that if he was "treated unfairly", ie attacked by the establishment, that he would run a third party campaign and torpedo their efforts. It is clear now he was indeed fully capable of executing this threat. The GOP elite did not lack resolve - Trump disarmed and sidelined them.
Everything Trump has done has been calculated to arrive at this point. I am very curious to see where he goes from here.
www.blog.dilbert.com
Trump made it clear from the beginning that if he was "treated unfairly", ie attacked by the establishment, that he would run a third party campaign and torpedo their efforts. It is clear now he was indeed fully capable of executing this threat. The GOP elite did not lack resolve - Trump disarmed and sidelined them.
Everything Trump has done has been calculated to arrive at this point. I am very curious to see where he goes from here.
www.blog.dilbert.com
10
Over the course of the past 8 years the Republican Party has devoted itself to opposing everything the Obama Administration attempted to do with out regard to merit. The result was a complete loss of policy and direction. Even before then it had heavily invested its appeal on cultural issues including abortion, gay rights, and thinly veiled racism. In 2016 it reached the point where there was no longer any unifying coherent theme. In the past the Party could fall back on strong establishment figures like McCain and Romney to carry the day, but Bush appeared to awkward and greatly over rated, and Rubio seriously under prepared. With no obvious establishment figure, and no coherent policy, the nomination devolved to a personality show; and per usual it proved impossible to underestimate the intelligence of the American public.
12
If Trump is elected President on November 8 (shudder), I will be moving all my IRA funds from stocks into a money market account. Can anyone imagine the hit the market will take?
3
Sell or buy, the sharpies will have picked the carcass clean by Nov. 8.
3
I think you underestimated the American people. I know education has gone to pot but this is so scary. And it doesn't matter who wins the presidency because both Hillary and Donald have their own agendas which hardly fit with the public. It's more serious than they think. How could so many people vote for Trump, a old worn out celebrity who was not acting as a mean boss He is a mean boss, a narcissistic bloated not too bright man. He just said whatever came into his mine and shouted it out. I don't think these people even heard what he was saying. Are there really that many dangerous Americans out there. The people have voted to let any crazy rich person take over the government but we have one card to play. America will soon be a minority majority and this continuing push to Fascism might turn around. But in the meantime we need to educate our children with critical thinking, analysis and give them the same education as the rich kids get at Choate, Phillips Academies etc. We need to teach the honor of public service not just making as much money as possible. This will take some time but it's well worth the effort to save what was once a great country. And we must have public funding for elections and limit the campaign to 6 yo 8 weeks. Obviously all this campaign talk has not enlightened anyone but enrich the campaign employees, TV stations. advertising agencies. It's disgusting.
9
In a field competing for points on recklessness, bombast, and instant gratification, why is it all surprising that the most natural fit with these qualities has emerged the winner?
8
Remember that Trump was also 1 of the 17 to start. He got more votes and consolidated his base. All this 'anti-Trump' nonsense is nonsense. The voters chose Trump above the others. Say the establishment didn't do enough to thwart the will of the voters is saying we should just let the party establishment decide.
10
This is a complete and utter sham. This article offers no introspection or analysis.
Kasich is to the left of Trump? Huh? On which planet? Kasich is to the right of George W. Bush!
No one except the media is to blame for underestimating Trump. As soon as he entered the race, his polling figures were on top. The media never respected his poll numbers and that's why we're here today.
On the plus side, I expect Ms. Clinton to easily become the next president.
Kasich is to the left of Trump? Huh? On which planet? Kasich is to the right of George W. Bush!
No one except the media is to blame for underestimating Trump. As soon as he entered the race, his polling figures were on top. The media never respected his poll numbers and that's why we're here today.
On the plus side, I expect Ms. Clinton to easily become the next president.
7
Our citizenry is so disinterested, so disengaged, so disaffected, that voting is akin to beauty pageant. We elect people who have name recognition; think Jesse Ventura, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Kevin Johnson. We fail to engage in these important matters, so just flip the lever on whoever's name we recognize - for whatever reason.
We need Jed Bartlet, as played by Martin Sheen, to balance this election.
How disappointing.
We need Jed Bartlet, as played by Martin Sheen, to balance this election.
How disappointing.
7
Yeah, and Hillary rode on the coattails of Bill to the Senate and later in her bid for President in 2008.
6
Hired to write about the election, yet so far he's gotten everything wrong. How does this guy still have his job?
36
The factor that's hurt worst has been the betrayal of America by its mainstream media, including most notably the New York Times -- of which betrayal you've been a part.
Failure to cover the dominant issue for America: the heist of our economy and democracy, from The People, by and for The Money-Insider Royalty. Blackout and bits of derision for Bernie, the candidate with the mission of restoring America to The People.
Instead, filling election coverage with Trumpian Entertainment Tonight, and reporting of it as a no-consequence horse-race sport.
Now, you and the rest of the New York Times are doing it again. Prematurely handing the Dem. nomination to Queen Hillary of the Money-Insider Royalty.
For Trump, she will be a pinata. As one of your columnists said in a moment of straying from your Queen Hillary line, in this election representing the Establishment is electoral suicide.
I'll bet you even money that if the superdelegates are foolish enough to nominate the Royalty's Queen Hillary, in November Trump wins.
Failure to cover the dominant issue for America: the heist of our economy and democracy, from The People, by and for The Money-Insider Royalty. Blackout and bits of derision for Bernie, the candidate with the mission of restoring America to The People.
Instead, filling election coverage with Trumpian Entertainment Tonight, and reporting of it as a no-consequence horse-race sport.
Now, you and the rest of the New York Times are doing it again. Prematurely handing the Dem. nomination to Queen Hillary of the Money-Insider Royalty.
For Trump, she will be a pinata. As one of your columnists said in a moment of straying from your Queen Hillary line, in this election representing the Establishment is electoral suicide.
I'll bet you even money that if the superdelegates are foolish enough to nominate the Royalty's Queen Hillary, in November Trump wins.
45
Hate to admit this, but who is the man on the far left on the stage with the other former candidates?
The Republican "elite" tolerated this, incubated this, and is fully responsible for this outcome. There is no Rockefeller wing of the Republican party anymore, and folks like Jeb and Mitt and McCain cowardly failed to challenge the Tea Party. If Joe the Plumber and Sarah Palin could "speak" for the white working class, and simultaneously endorse the policies of the GOP that consistently increase income inequality, then it was okay with them. The fossil fuel lobbyists primaried out the last GOP Congressman to acknowledge climate change, but last year we could find Eastern GOP elite Christie Todd Whitman on TV doing verbal gymnastics on the subject defending Republicans. I would love to see Nate Cohn explore the demographics of the former Rockefeller Republicans. Other than those who have a job in government, or who work as GOP pundits in the press, or have some other reason that they can't leave the party, are there any of these folks left? It appears that all that's left are religious conservatives and scrambled brain Sarah Palin types; one of whom was on TV the other day being interviewed. She was passionate about how a billionaire (with no history of either compassion, social justice, or fairness), was going to save the middle class.
8
Like many in America, I thought the Trump thing was a joke. The endless free media coverage was entertaining and Trump was a buffon so how could he go very far? Well he did.
There are 320 million people in this country and that is the best we can do? Really really sad. Thousands of words will be written about how this country could come to this. Nate Cohn's article ignored the role of the media and the power brokers behind them to shape the direction of the country.
Congratulations! Be careful what you wish for, it may come true. We now have a narcissistic, misogynist, bigot whose ego is bigger than his intellect as a nominee for the Presidency. Do not underestimate his ability to tap into the anger, frustration and fear of some of the American public.
We could be listening to the Donald extol his brilliance from the White House pulpit for the next four years or more.
There are 320 million people in this country and that is the best we can do? Really really sad. Thousands of words will be written about how this country could come to this. Nate Cohn's article ignored the role of the media and the power brokers behind them to shape the direction of the country.
Congratulations! Be careful what you wish for, it may come true. We now have a narcissistic, misogynist, bigot whose ego is bigger than his intellect as a nominee for the Presidency. Do not underestimate his ability to tap into the anger, frustration and fear of some of the American public.
We could be listening to the Donald extol his brilliance from the White House pulpit for the next four years or more.
2
The reason everyone in the DC-New York political media beltway failed to foresee the success of not only Trump but also Sanders is because they do not socialise with -- or probably even know -- very many people outside of their insulated bubble.
How many reporters from the New York Times are close friends with an Evangelical Christian? How many editors from the Washington Post personally know a machinist whose plant closed and was moved to China? How many of the producers at CNN have lived in the Midwest in their adult lives? How many K-Street lobbyists are wounded vets?
Of course they didn't see this coming.
How many reporters from the New York Times are close friends with an Evangelical Christian? How many editors from the Washington Post personally know a machinist whose plant closed and was moved to China? How many of the producers at CNN have lived in the Midwest in their adult lives? How many K-Street lobbyists are wounded vets?
Of course they didn't see this coming.
93
The question is not how you failed to predict the rise of Trump in the Republican primary, but how this failure will help you to better predict his performance in the general election.
8
This is the color revolution Russian has engineered in US. I'm just surprised it's so easy. It helps that Americans are getting dumber, I guess...
It's the medias fault. Blanket coverage of hate speech 24/7 evidently works. The only thing Trump didn't get was the half time show at the Super Bowl.
11
He's a reaction, he's a flawed champion maybe, but a bold champion nevertheless for millions of average folks who're sick of being baited for their supposed racist views, at being sneered at for their addictions to guns and religion, and sick of being ignored when ousted from their jobs by globalization; and so on.
He's a protest vote and there's plenty to protest and this could snowball into something big.
He's a protest vote and there's plenty to protest and this could snowball into something big.
23
you're still getting it wrong. You missed the most important factor: the man is friggin smart. He's spent his life honing his marketing skills and he knocked around a bunch of guys (and a girl) who seem completely uncomfortable and out of touch.
16
I think you left out the Carson flirtation, which lasted just long enough to damage the prospects of more credible candidates at a key stage of the race. And, Jeb! couldn't campaign his way out of a paper bag.
2
It shows how out of touch "we" (liberal, educated elites, etc) were about Trump. And still could be. Still are. Trump and his magnetic on-stage presence will eviscerate HRR. These numbers about HRR winning by 10 percentage points over Trump are based on ... polling via old-fashioned landlines? Out of touch!!
25
I think you undersell the role press and other media have played in securing Trump's nomination. It's not merely the celebrity style of coverage that has propped him, it's also an obscene fascination with the possibility (statistical, cultural, and otherwise) of such a candidate. It's as if the spectacle of Trump's candidacy is self-perpetuating and rather than do its job of questioning, checking power, and informing, the press has shown transparent interest in fueling the spectacle so as to perpetuate its own poor work. I blame Aeron—$1,000 desk chair—analysis; this was never a man who deserved serious political analysis. But to contribute to the spectacle and to provoke support for this absolutely pathetic man, that is what you and your field have given his candidacy. The lot of you didn't merely get this wrong: you've essentially failed at your jobs and as a result, our election process and ultimately our country and its hardworking people will further suffer. There's nothing chicken-and-egg to see here. (Which came first? Disgruntled Republicans or attention- and spectacle-hungry press? Please.) There is only the failure of our media to do its job.
3
No, it's not the fault of the media. Trump WORKED the media incessantly. If they're under his thrall and want ratings, no different than business as usual.
3
Isn't that what I'm saying: that the draw of spectacle is business as usual for the media? Your comment suggests a passive media susceptible to being worked. There is too much hard evidence that the media is in no way passive; it actively chooses spectacle over substance, passivity over its job. See Iraq War—for example, this newspaper's coverage preceding it. To suggest the media has no fault: Trump has worked the happily workable media and the media has, perhaps, worked you.
I'm just saying it is what it is and too many people are just blaming the media when there is plenty else going on. Of course the media has power blah blah blah. Those that know how to use it will get ahead. Always have, always will.
It just doesn't mean very much. Might as well blame the media for every President we've had.
It just doesn't mean very much. Might as well blame the media for every President we've had.
1
I hate to be that person who says "I told you so," but I distinctly remember reading articles over the summer about why Trump would never be the candidate and thinking that the arguments essentially boiled down to a combination of wishful thinking and saying "well, it's never happened like this before, so it can't happen now." Those didn't seem like very good arguments.
Maybe I'm cynical after studying a lot of authoritarian regimes, but I just didn't ever think Trump *couldn't* be the nominee. None of the other candidates seemed like they had compelling enough narratives, and Trump has been playing, well, the trump card of politics: playing on people's fears by identifying a clear enemy, and saying only he can save them from that enemy. It's straight out of dictators' playbooks and it's worked dozens of times before, so there's really no reason it couldn't have success here.
Of course, none of that is to say I want Trump to win. Quite the contrary.
Maybe I'm cynical after studying a lot of authoritarian regimes, but I just didn't ever think Trump *couldn't* be the nominee. None of the other candidates seemed like they had compelling enough narratives, and Trump has been playing, well, the trump card of politics: playing on people's fears by identifying a clear enemy, and saying only he can save them from that enemy. It's straight out of dictators' playbooks and it's worked dozens of times before, so there's really no reason it couldn't have success here.
Of course, none of that is to say I want Trump to win. Quite the contrary.
3
I hear all these people saying that the media elitists just don't get it, that average Americans are fed up with being taken advantage of by the banksters and CEOS and want to finally get some help living their lives.
The reason the media elite insult you for supporting Trump is not because you are wrong for feeling the way you do. It is because you supported the GOP against your own economic interests for so long and only turned against it when a populist came along who is also a bigot.
If you were so interested in getting help for middle class Americans then you should have joined the Democrats decades ago, but, you didn't, and we all know why you didn't, and it has nothing to do with Hillary's emails.
The reason the media elite insult you for supporting Trump is not because you are wrong for feeling the way you do. It is because you supported the GOP against your own economic interests for so long and only turned against it when a populist came along who is also a bigot.
If you were so interested in getting help for middle class Americans then you should have joined the Democrats decades ago, but, you didn't, and we all know why you didn't, and it has nothing to do with Hillary's emails.
13
Am I missing something? Hillary get's paid millions for SPEAKING to wall street and you think that she is looking out for the rest of us????
51
Your thinking is exactly why Trump will win. You fervently believe that not voting Democractic is "voting against your own interests" for the middle class although cities around the country have had their middle class utterly gutted while under Democratic control for decades.
You also imply that this is because the white middle class is racist and would somehow rather be destroyed financial than vote for a Democrat because ...well I'm not sure why but because somehow voting for a Democrat would be anti-racist and these folks are just too racist to vote for a "progressive."
Trump is going to win. I didn't think so until today, but now I know.
You also imply that this is because the white middle class is racist and would somehow rather be destroyed financial than vote for a Democrat because ...well I'm not sure why but because somehow voting for a Democrat would be anti-racist and these folks are just too racist to vote for a "progressive."
Trump is going to win. I didn't think so until today, but now I know.
8
@Michael - you are aware the 20,000 registered Democrats in Massachusetts left the party quite recently? Where do you think those voters went?
(I am not a Republican, just a working class Democrat who is horrified at the corporatist policies pushed by BOTH parties for years)
So what makes you think Trump supporters are all Republicans?
(I am not a Republican, just a working class Democrat who is horrified at the corporatist policies pushed by BOTH parties for years)
So what makes you think Trump supporters are all Republicans?
10
Interesting how he quickly shifts from what "he" got wrong to what "we" did.
The media played a yuge role in the ascension of Mr. Trump due to their basic laziness and fascination with his campaign style.
"Yuck, yuck. People can't possibly that stupid, can they?"
Well, you all were, weren't you?
The media played a yuge role in the ascension of Mr. Trump due to their basic laziness and fascination with his campaign style.
"Yuck, yuck. People can't possibly that stupid, can they?"
Well, you all were, weren't you?
3
More than anything, I think it's "Missing the Importance of Celebrity Coverage." And not just since the summer of 2015. Donald J. Trump, like Ronald Reagan, enjoys being an entertainer. Public buffoonery -- for decades -- has helped make him rich and "popular." If his accumulated celebrity can advance him in politics without his having actually to do the work of apprenticing himself in government service, so much the better.
One word for why you were wrong about Trump: immigration. A majority of the country wants immigration law to be enforced, and is against open borders. You call this view "extreme." That elitist attitude is why Trump wins.
11
Nate, you live in a bubble on the coast. I'm sure all of your day-to-day associates are high-status college alums and work high-status media jobs — I'm sure you have some doctor, lawyer, advertising, Google employee buds from college, too. Whether you think so or not, you're in an elite bubble. Go see how the 99% and the bottom half lives; only then will things begin to make sense.
73
Look back to Germany in 1931-2, and you see what Trump is and will do. Since Americans don't learn history any more, and many in the GOP AND Democratic bases seem ignorant and proud of it, this is what you get.
Our Constitutional democracy requires an educated populace and voter participation at all levels--which is exactly what we don't have in this age of punditry replacing independent thought, the Internet, rife with lies and exaggerations, replacing the ability to tell good, factual information from propaganda, and letting our devices do the work instead of using our brains and learning.
Our Constitutional democracy requires an educated populace and voter participation at all levels--which is exactly what we don't have in this age of punditry replacing independent thought, the Internet, rife with lies and exaggerations, replacing the ability to tell good, factual information from propaganda, and letting our devices do the work instead of using our brains and learning.
2
Why did Trump win? Because the media made him front and center during the entire process and failed to scrutinize his past effectively early in the process. He used the press to trumpet is outrageous reality TV proclamations, and the country and press ate it up. No one believes him, they just like the sound bytes that keep getting amplified. It makes people feel good in the moment. Well now we are in the moment that has turn into a future. Let's see if reality TV becomes the new leadership style in America. Next Kim Kardashian as sec of state?
4
Never underestimate the power of celebrity in America. Despite the negative spin, invective and hyperbole, the so called "experts" completely underestimated Trump and his celebrity status.
These frustrated "experts" are repeating the same error when they say he can't win the Presidency.
I'm not a betting man, but, if I were, I would certainly not bet against Trump this early in the game.
These frustrated "experts" are repeating the same error when they say he can't win the Presidency.
I'm not a betting man, but, if I were, I would certainly not bet against Trump this early in the game.
11
Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium has consistently predicted Trump to be the likely Republican nominee. Perhaps, someone can give him credit for this purely poll-based prediction at some point?
7
In the end Trump did what others could not with respect to the core, base GOP voters, and others like them who had not participated much in primaries and caucuses.
That base consists of the Obama haters - birthers and others whose visceral distaste for the President was there from day one. Trump is a true blue birther to this day, and he says so. Others in the GOP cringe at this, he does not.
The base also has lots of bigots - anti-Muslim, anti-Mexican, anti-whoever they choose from time to time. These voters have been actively courted by the GOP since Goldwater, Nixon, etc. -the southern strategy targets. Courting them (actually using them) was no longer enough- they wanted one of their own, and they got him in Trump
Finally, there are the believers in the big lie(s). Lots of people lament how is it that a good hunk of the GOP base vote against themselves, their own interests, their own pocketbooks. Because they believe what turns out to be lies. Trump exploited this - he told them they'd been had by the lying "establishment". He then proceeded to tell even bigger lies - build a wall at Mexico's expense, deport millions of immigrants, bar Muslims from the country, beat China in economic submission, etc. True to from, the bigger the lie, the easier that part of the base fell for it.
Ergo - Trump. The perfect culmination of all the modern GOP has come to represent.
That base consists of the Obama haters - birthers and others whose visceral distaste for the President was there from day one. Trump is a true blue birther to this day, and he says so. Others in the GOP cringe at this, he does not.
The base also has lots of bigots - anti-Muslim, anti-Mexican, anti-whoever they choose from time to time. These voters have been actively courted by the GOP since Goldwater, Nixon, etc. -the southern strategy targets. Courting them (actually using them) was no longer enough- they wanted one of their own, and they got him in Trump
Finally, there are the believers in the big lie(s). Lots of people lament how is it that a good hunk of the GOP base vote against themselves, their own interests, their own pocketbooks. Because they believe what turns out to be lies. Trump exploited this - he told them they'd been had by the lying "establishment". He then proceeded to tell even bigger lies - build a wall at Mexico's expense, deport millions of immigrants, bar Muslims from the country, beat China in economic submission, etc. True to from, the bigger the lie, the easier that part of the base fell for it.
Ergo - Trump. The perfect culmination of all the modern GOP has come to represent.
8
In the SC debates, Trump notably stated, "I am very angry because our country is being run horribly and I will gladly accept the mantle of anger." I deplore everything Trump stands for, but I give him credit: he identified a winning strategy in his ability to channel the rage felt by the shrinking middle class who are stressed at every turn by low pay, fear of lay-offs among older workers, sky high education costs, medical bills, the need to save for retirement (if that day ever comes), and the disdain or lack of empathy they often sense from the 1% . I only hope that he will not be our President - what a sad day that would be.
4
Just wait until he wins the general election. Trump is motivating classes of voters that haven't voted since Reagan. Trump will win every old industrialized state, including NY. He'll win FL as well. It will be the largest blowout since Reagan. All states will become red states except for the normal liberal strongholds of MA and CA.
6
Why did people get Trump wrong? Simple. We still have way too much faith in the wisdom of the American people.
We are no longer collectively that wise group we perhaps once were. We irrationally assign the blame for our lives to elected officials who do exactly what we want. Yes, that's correct: they reflect our values most of the time.
We don't want to cut programs and services, so the debt grows. We want programs, but simply don't want to pay for them.
We laud businesses as "job creators," then snarl when they make the decision to seek cheaper labor elsewhere. We don't want other peoples' wages to go up -- only our own.
We used to stop at stop signs; now we simply come to a slow roll. I've dealt with one local business in the past 10 years that had any kind of ethics; the others simply "angle" for our dollars and when they get them, we're forgotten. We're not "valued". We're exploited -- by each other. It's what we've become good at.
The Art of the Deal. When the "deal" is more important than the product, we've lost any moral high ground we might have had.
Mr. Trump's success is nothing more than a continuation of the dumbing-down of America.
The only question remains is: how far gone are we? Far enough to elect him president?
We'll find out soon enough.
We are no longer collectively that wise group we perhaps once were. We irrationally assign the blame for our lives to elected officials who do exactly what we want. Yes, that's correct: they reflect our values most of the time.
We don't want to cut programs and services, so the debt grows. We want programs, but simply don't want to pay for them.
We laud businesses as "job creators," then snarl when they make the decision to seek cheaper labor elsewhere. We don't want other peoples' wages to go up -- only our own.
We used to stop at stop signs; now we simply come to a slow roll. I've dealt with one local business in the past 10 years that had any kind of ethics; the others simply "angle" for our dollars and when they get them, we're forgotten. We're not "valued". We're exploited -- by each other. It's what we've become good at.
The Art of the Deal. When the "deal" is more important than the product, we've lost any moral high ground we might have had.
Mr. Trump's success is nothing more than a continuation of the dumbing-down of America.
The only question remains is: how far gone are we? Far enough to elect him president?
We'll find out soon enough.
10
Many others will tell you the ultimate proof of the 'dumbing down' was the election of Obama in 2008 and an even greater barometer of 'dumbness' was his reelection in 2012.
8
I think that Trump learned from how Obama got into office. Obama promised change. Here are some Obama campaign slogans that he used to get the country excited: 1. "Yes We Can" 2. “Change” versus “More of the Same” 3. "Vote for Change" 4. "Change We Can Believe In" 5. "Our Time for Change" 6. "It's about Time. It's about Change" 7. "Stand for Change"
8. "Organize for Change" 9. “We are the change we’ve been looking for."
Trump evidently understands that such campaign slogans promising change are the magic buttons to push to arouse support from the masses. Under the repeated mantra, "Let's make America Great Again," Trump has gone leaps further than just slogans for change, but has (like a broken record) repeatedly described, no matter how impractical or illogical they seem, massive changes with promises that;
1. lost jobs would be brought back to America by direct action against importing countries who took our factories..
2. millions of illegal aliens (who many people identify as their job takers) would be sent back.
3. further illegals would kept from coming in (and taking jobs) by building a massive wall.
It seems that Trump (and similarly Sanders) recognized from Obama's political slogan success that voters are responsive to promises for change. And it seems they both knew slogans alone wouldn't do it this time. They had to launch some truly outlandish scenarios to get attention. The theory seems to work; people really do respond to promises of revolution.
8. "Organize for Change" 9. “We are the change we’ve been looking for."
Trump evidently understands that such campaign slogans promising change are the magic buttons to push to arouse support from the masses. Under the repeated mantra, "Let's make America Great Again," Trump has gone leaps further than just slogans for change, but has (like a broken record) repeatedly described, no matter how impractical or illogical they seem, massive changes with promises that;
1. lost jobs would be brought back to America by direct action against importing countries who took our factories..
2. millions of illegal aliens (who many people identify as their job takers) would be sent back.
3. further illegals would kept from coming in (and taking jobs) by building a massive wall.
It seems that Trump (and similarly Sanders) recognized from Obama's political slogan success that voters are responsive to promises for change. And it seems they both knew slogans alone wouldn't do it this time. They had to launch some truly outlandish scenarios to get attention. The theory seems to work; people really do respond to promises of revolution.
6
Thank you for your comment. Couldn't agree more. Obama was a case in point for an untested and unaccomplished orator clinching the nomination from the most accomplished and fitting candidate in many years. It seems Trump paid close attention and learned a lot from the Obama campaign message and positioning. Just give the people what they want to hear.
On the article's point about blue state republicans, lets not vilify them. They only showed they're willing to vote for the nutcase who understands money than the religious lunatic on offer as an alternative. I can't blame them.
It's time for the GOP leadership to regroup and decide what they stand for as a party and purge all the crazies they've allowed to infest their party. Meanwhile they'd be serving their country responsibly and honorably by supporting Hillary.
On the article's point about blue state republicans, lets not vilify them. They only showed they're willing to vote for the nutcase who understands money than the religious lunatic on offer as an alternative. I can't blame them.
It's time for the GOP leadership to regroup and decide what they stand for as a party and purge all the crazies they've allowed to infest their party. Meanwhile they'd be serving their country responsibly and honorably by supporting Hillary.
1
Don't be so hard on yourself. Everybody else got it wrong too. At least this is the best post mortem I've read. My theory for what it's worth, is that this is the Middle Finger Election, in both parties. I think a lot of people are having fun thumbing their noses at the establishment. Establishment. That's the most important word of this story so far, even if it has taken on a kind of mushy meaning. I'm not exactly sure what the establishment did to deserve all this. I'm guessing it could have something to do with impatience. Impatience born of an Almost Recovery. Prosperity that's visible but just out of sight. If (if) things break right, Hillary Clinton could win in an historic landslide. If.
4
If this is the middle finger election, and it is, Hillary ain't gonna win.
10
The 2016 election went off the rails back in June 2015, when the pundits announced it was going to be a Jeb vs. Hillary contest because they each had $100 million campaign warchests & the support of their party poobahs, and thus had the nominations pretty much sewn-up. A large portion of the American populace barfed in unison. When you're informed 6 months before the first primary that your opinion doesn't matter a whit, you tend to get frustrated and become more open to outside-the-box solutions. Trump & Sanders are the result.
With respect to Trump, It's precisely because he's a loose cannon, shooting his big mouth off all the time & attacking people, that makes him the last hope of the drowning middle class. The Romney-Ryan wing and the Chamber of Commerce have sold them out: Pensions are a thing of the past (except for the public sector), jobs are being outsourced, and companies like Disney abuse the H-2B program to thrown American tech programmers out of work. Along comes Donald Trump to say "ENOUGH!" and the clueless pundits are surprised that he gained traction with the working class? Talk about being out of touch! Maybe pundits should be required to spend a month in each of the rust-belt states before being issued their pundit licenses.
With respect to Trump, It's precisely because he's a loose cannon, shooting his big mouth off all the time & attacking people, that makes him the last hope of the drowning middle class. The Romney-Ryan wing and the Chamber of Commerce have sold them out: Pensions are a thing of the past (except for the public sector), jobs are being outsourced, and companies like Disney abuse the H-2B program to thrown American tech programmers out of work. Along comes Donald Trump to say "ENOUGH!" and the clueless pundits are surprised that he gained traction with the working class? Talk about being out of touch! Maybe pundits should be required to spend a month in each of the rust-belt states before being issued their pundit licenses.
28
"A portion barfed in unison"
Funny. And true.
We are done with lifetime politicians.
Funny. And true.
We are done with lifetime politicians.
5
I don't think it's what people got wrong about The Donald. It's what they're not willing to see. That there's a tremendous amount of anger abroad in this country. What's even less appealing is the level of xenophobia and racism. This is treated with scorn by the liberal media, but it's out there, and Trump simply tapped into it.
And yes, it's about a generally under-educated population that prefers bombast over discussion, violence over reason.
One can speak of what "went wrong" here, bit aren't you speaking about what political an analytical mistakes were made. In fact, a lot of Americans seem to think it went right: they got the candidate they wanted.
And yes, it's about a generally under-educated population that prefers bombast over discussion, violence over reason.
One can speak of what "went wrong" here, bit aren't you speaking about what political an analytical mistakes were made. In fact, a lot of Americans seem to think it went right: they got the candidate they wanted.
3
It is scary-amazing how clueless Nate Cohn continues to be. If he still has both hands, many commenters here are giving him the flashlight. Find it soon, Nate.
14
The media so wanted Trump to fail, you all convinced yourselves that he would, and started to believe your opinion pieces as if they were news. Check your media privilege.
16
Trump is this country's Boaty McBoatface.
8
1. Bismarck remarked that a silly act in the Balkans would likely light a major conflagration. He was right. Germany had been preparing for decades, so too had France. The only unknown about that war was what the actual trigger would be. The Kaiser had taken delivery of some of the biggest artillery pieces ever constructed--made by Krupp--to demolish Belgian and French defenses.
2. The Trump campaign snowballed. Success succeeds. But like any snowball, it had a deliberate beginning, and that was the deliberate appeal to racism among fearful old whites. Make America great again means make America white again, and Christian as well.
Mixing metaphors, the snowball became a bandwagon, and now there 's hardly room on it for all who want to get on.
2. The Trump campaign snowballed. Success succeeds. But like any snowball, it had a deliberate beginning, and that was the deliberate appeal to racism among fearful old whites. Make America great again means make America white again, and Christian as well.
Mixing metaphors, the snowball became a bandwagon, and now there 's hardly room on it for all who want to get on.
3
You couldn't have predicted all the free publicity Trump has gotten from the media. If there's one thing I've learned, it's that voters are dumb and uninformed. The media have just been informing them about one option.
3
I think you have missed one, and perhaps the most important, factor: the effect of dark money on the Republican side in the post-Citizens United era. There is no way that so many weak and basically unpalatable candidates could have survived so far into the process without each having the backing of a few individuals with deep pockets. What was worse is that these backers were noticeably lacking in political savvy, so they just kept paying the bills long after the handwriting was on the wall. In the old days you had to demonstrate some ability to - wait for it - get votes to keep campaigning. Now you just need to make nice to a modest number of backers (until it becomes mathematically impossible for you to get anywhere, at which point they write you off).
Arguably, Cruz is the most egregious example. Rarely has such an unappetizing candidate lasted so long. Absent his funding he would have vanished some time ago, which would have permitted the primary process to settle on someone else as it manifestly wanted to do.
Arguably, Cruz is the most egregious example. Rarely has such an unappetizing candidate lasted so long. Absent his funding he would have vanished some time ago, which would have permitted the primary process to settle on someone else as it manifestly wanted to do.
11
Trump offers solutions that sound like they maybe make sense. Stop illegal immigration; don't put up with any lip from other nations; change trade agreements so they favor us, not the other guy; keep women and minorities in their place or at least stop this excessive PC nonsense. Being a bully is more appealing than being a wimp. Never mind that any of these things is incredibly difficult to accomplish, would probably backfire and carry all sorts of unintended consequences. Just do something to bring back the 1950s is the appeal.
2
Don't give too much credit to Trump. Trump is the face of white working-class anger, fanned into racism by fear and the unwillingness of their chosen representatives to address or even acknowledge their grievances. His rise is inevitable and cathartic if Democrats seize the opportunity to win ground by concentrating on the issues, without getting bogged down in Trump’s protean personality.
2
No matter how much I read about this election cycle, I come back to one issue over and over again. The lack of term limits in Congress and the Senate has resulted in an ineffective and reactionary government body. Congress created a space for someone like Trump to thrive. Term limits must be enacted if our government is to survive.
14
I think people are missing the most obvious explanation - celebrity candidates bring new voters to the polls and so play by a different set of rules.
Trump is following in the footsteps of Jesse Ventura and Arnold Schwarzenegger, both celebrities with crackpot ideas and no political experience.
Trump is following in the footsteps of Jesse Ventura and Arnold Schwarzenegger, both celebrities with crackpot ideas and no political experience.
3
Sorry, but the press helped created the Frankentrump 'monster'! With its endless coverage of his each and every utterance or action--invaluable free PR!
And also the media's utter and complete failure to offer in-depth analysis of Trump's actual "positions" on real issues--and their implications. Instead, what you've been doling out is superficial puff-pieces and superficial blog "coverage" of debates ("Trump just made a face...")
And also the media's utter and complete failure to offer in-depth analysis of Trump's actual "positions" on real issues--and their implications. Instead, what you've been doling out is superficial puff-pieces and superficial blog "coverage" of debates ("Trump just made a face...")
21
I'm certain he sold them all on the idea of nominating him emperor of their social network. Anyone hungry, gameboys?
The only disagreement that I have with Nate Cohen is that the filed of candidates with the exception of Kasich were awful. They were either terrible governors (Walker, Jindahl, Christie, Bush), crazies (Carson, Trump, Cruz) or feckless youths (Rubio). They took themselves out of the race either by their inability to articulate on key positions (Bush and Iraq) or by their record of not working (Rubio) or by their crazy values (Cruz)
2
Donald Trump is a mercenary...a 'gun for hire' if you like but without the cache of a likable personae (to say the least) or the moral fiber or ethical grounding of a pop-culture hero. He has zero connection with the GOP (he could have run as a Democrat for that matter) and has more in common with a Bail Bondsman than he does with the Party of Lincoln. He has eviscerated the GOP without having a clue as to how he achieved that or why. Even the Tea Party, in a rare show of moderation, want nothing to do with him. He's the winning candidate leading a mortally wounded political party into battle - who openly loathe and despise him.
This foam and kevlar candidate has ushered in the spectacle of America becoming the greatest threat to global harmony and itself since the rise of Islamic extremism.
This foam and kevlar candidate has ushered in the spectacle of America becoming the greatest threat to global harmony and itself since the rise of Islamic extremism.
3
Mr Cohn says the establishment didn't rally against Trump but that is utter hogwash. Look at the Hundreds of $Million spent trying to defeat him -- and the small amounts of money Trump spent to gain victory.
I realize Mr Cohn needs this job and so has to avert his eyes from the obvious: the People really, really hate the elites who have been running this country into the ground and then lying about it through their teeth.
Of course, we are a republic and so Trump has his limits -- he is no Julius Caesar campaigning with an army and a desire to chop off half the heads in the Senate and throw them down the steps.
I realize Mr Cohn needs this job and so has to avert his eyes from the obvious: the People really, really hate the elites who have been running this country into the ground and then lying about it through their teeth.
Of course, we are a republic and so Trump has his limits -- he is no Julius Caesar campaigning with an army and a desire to chop off half the heads in the Senate and throw them down the steps.
20
There probably are New York Times reporters who know the streets, the bars, and who just shook their collective heads as they read Nat Cohn's predictions.
What a bubble you live in. But, you are not alone. I'm still routing for Bernie. And I'm not alone.
What a bubble you live in. But, you are not alone. I'm still routing for Bernie. And I'm not alone.
3
No one got anything wrong about Drumpf. He is a psychopath, liar, philanderer, unstable and dangerous man who has no control of how he runs off at the mouth.
The lead that Clinton may now have over him in the general election must not be taken for granted. He will now start an endless campaign of lying and insulting Clinton, trashing her at every opportunity. The press will continue to cover his every waking breath.
She needs to keep above the fray. If she responds in kind then he will have his usual temper tantrums, wave and yell, insult, act like a spoiled four-year-old. His supporters - mostly ignorant white men - will eat it up.
But the DNC should begin a constant series of TV commercials showing Drumpf's snarling, nasty face - pushing messages such as "do you want this man to control our atomic weapons" - "do you want this liar to represent the United States in international negotiations" - "do you (females) want this man to control your health care and your decisions about your own body" - "do you want a mentally unstable man in the White House" - and on and on and on. He MUST be dealt a crushing defeat at the polls.
The lead that Clinton may now have over him in the general election must not be taken for granted. He will now start an endless campaign of lying and insulting Clinton, trashing her at every opportunity. The press will continue to cover his every waking breath.
She needs to keep above the fray. If she responds in kind then he will have his usual temper tantrums, wave and yell, insult, act like a spoiled four-year-old. His supporters - mostly ignorant white men - will eat it up.
But the DNC should begin a constant series of TV commercials showing Drumpf's snarling, nasty face - pushing messages such as "do you want this man to control our atomic weapons" - "do you want this liar to represent the United States in international negotiations" - "do you (females) want this man to control your health care and your decisions about your own body" - "do you want a mentally unstable man in the White House" - and on and on and on. He MUST be dealt a crushing defeat at the polls.
15
The media still doesn't get it. The current politicians in Washington have angered many of us so much that we will vote for anyone who promised to upset the establishment and help remove ALL OF THEM - all 435 of them - from office, or at least from power. Far better to have inexperienced non-establishment newcomers feel their way than continue with the do-nothing corrupt cesspool of politicians currently trying - and failing miserably - to run the country.
27
YES! Let's vote for the guy who's stiffed working contractors and suppliers while walking away from 4 bankruptcies with money to spare = Yuge money! Who laughed all the way to the bank when retirees lost their savings on deposits for condos that never got built. Let's vote for the guy who had his Trump brand ties and shirts sold in Macy's made in China and Bangladesh. He cares about us! hahahahahahaha
Media pundits along with the alphabet soup that comprises the so called mainstream media, and by that I mean ABC. CBS, NBC, MSNBC. FOX, CNN and all the rest of these media conglomorates who by the way are not without their own agenda and their own lobbyists bribing our senators and congressman to pass legislation beneficial to their industries, are furiously trying to derail an influential populist political outsider from becoming leader of the Free World. I understand how upset the people who take these bribes, err... I mean contributions in return for their patronage would be. If I were in their position, I would feel as threatened as they obviously do.
I'm not the only person who feels that the media along with the parties establishment are completely and irreconcilably alienated from the average American.
I hope and if I were a praying person I'd be praying that both parties go down in flames. They have betrayed the principals upon which they were elected, they have betrayed the people's trust, and most important, most influential of all, they have lost the narrative. Maybe Sanders and Trump are not perfect, maybe neither of them alone, have workable solutions to the problems facing us, but at least they are not bought and owned by the corporations that are setting policy and law by their very influence.
I'm not the only person who feels that the media along with the parties establishment are completely and irreconcilably alienated from the average American.
I hope and if I were a praying person I'd be praying that both parties go down in flames. They have betrayed the principals upon which they were elected, they have betrayed the people's trust, and most important, most influential of all, they have lost the narrative. Maybe Sanders and Trump are not perfect, maybe neither of them alone, have workable solutions to the problems facing us, but at least they are not bought and owned by the corporations that are setting policy and law by their very influence.
3
Excuses, Excuses. It isn't about the Orange One. The pundits, prophets, and politicians don't pick the candidate, the voter does. There is so much disgust in the general populace that any outsider looks good, even one with an Orange tint. Nearly 50% of the voting public doesn't vote. They have grievances and this year they may well vote. This bloc can overwhelm all the big money interests.
24
Amazing looking back at this quote from last year's NY Times analysis. Who could have foreseen this?
"Why He Will Win --
We are stumped. And we really tried.
Why He Won't --
Perhaps the biggest reason, of many, is the Trump Tower-size pile of money that awaits if he instead signs for another season of his “Apprentice” franchise."
"Why He Will Win --
We are stumped. And we really tried.
Why He Won't --
Perhaps the biggest reason, of many, is the Trump Tower-size pile of money that awaits if he instead signs for another season of his “Apprentice” franchise."
What this column amounts to is that Cohn relied on conventional wisdom rather than thinking for himself. The "clown car" candidates of 2012 were soon taken out of the race by media coverage of their own outrageous statements and past foibles, falling one by one to the mainstream candidate with far more experience, money, organization, and party leaders backing him, so the same thing must eventually happen to Trump. Why didn't it?
The media did indeed devote plenty of coverage to Trump's false and nonsensical statements and checkered past. Party leaders did indeed denounce many of the things he said, including his comments about McCain and about banning Muslim immigrants. But it didn't work this time. That's because both the media (that's you, Mr. Cohn) and party leaders have been thoroughly discredited by years and years of failure. Failing to stop us from going into a war about WMD that never existed. Failing to stop or expose the crazy practices of our financial industry that ultimately crashed our economy in 2008. People don't trust you any longer. Deal with it.
The media did indeed devote plenty of coverage to Trump's false and nonsensical statements and checkered past. Party leaders did indeed denounce many of the things he said, including his comments about McCain and about banning Muslim immigrants. But it didn't work this time. That's because both the media (that's you, Mr. Cohn) and party leaders have been thoroughly discredited by years and years of failure. Failing to stop us from going into a war about WMD that never existed. Failing to stop or expose the crazy practices of our financial industry that ultimately crashed our economy in 2008. People don't trust you any longer. Deal with it.
7
Trump is what America has been heading for, just as Germany elected it a new radical chancellor in the 30's. What goes around comes around once a nation decides God doesn't exist. May God's will be done. Holy Matrimony is never same sex marriages, abortion is not health care but murder of God's most innocent, amassing wealth by the Uber-Rich that forces working class families to make bad choices, are all reason enough to expect bad things to befall such a society. Any nation that wages war on its families should not be surprised when evil moves in to exert its power. May Merciful God Help America.
1
Did we put too much stock in “the party decides,” a theory about the role of party elites in influencing the outcome of the primary process?
We didn't, but you did. So much for all the professional prognostication. Maybe it's time to get back to just news. Anyone still remember what that is anymore?
We didn't, but you did. So much for all the professional prognostication. Maybe it's time to get back to just news. Anyone still remember what that is anymore?
3
Say what you will, I think it is high time a person of a new color was elected to this republic.
Maybe orange is the new black... I think a person should have a chance at being president regardless of their color, level of racism, poor character, lack of integrity... even unbalanced folks from reality TV should have a shot.
Maybe orange is the new black... I think a person should have a chance at being president regardless of their color, level of racism, poor character, lack of integrity... even unbalanced folks from reality TV should have a shot.
9
The MEDIA still doesn't get it; politicians still aren't getting it, perhaps because ours is the only democracy where individual votes don't really matter, (but rather, delegates and electoral colleges).
If this were elsewhere, everyone would understand (and stop every other assumption) that there's a reason why people are going out to vote for Trump --his MESSAGE!! POINT BLANK PERIOD.
In most other democracies, politicians would align the message to what the masses seem to be asking for, whether in their view the message is politically correct or not. After all, isn't democracy suppose to be about a government that the people want? We claim to be in a republic. We truly are not. Politicans and the Media think they know better than the majority of people.
If this were in another democracy, the Republican message would now begin to automatically align with it's number of supporters, a majority of whom came out in support of Trump.
The people are demanding for something and the politicians and the media are refusing to give it to the people. What kind of mess this is??? We're in a republic for Pete's sake!
If this were elsewhere, everyone would understand (and stop every other assumption) that there's a reason why people are going out to vote for Trump --his MESSAGE!! POINT BLANK PERIOD.
In most other democracies, politicians would align the message to what the masses seem to be asking for, whether in their view the message is politically correct or not. After all, isn't democracy suppose to be about a government that the people want? We claim to be in a republic. We truly are not. Politicans and the Media think they know better than the majority of people.
If this were in another democracy, the Republican message would now begin to automatically align with it's number of supporters, a majority of whom came out in support of Trump.
The people are demanding for something and the politicians and the media are refusing to give it to the people. What kind of mess this is??? We're in a republic for Pete's sake!
7
Nate, you probably misjudged the Republican nomination contest because you asked yourself the following questions:
1. Since the number of illegal immigrants living in the US has been declining since 2007 (from 12.2 million to 11.3 million in 2014) including for Mexicans (from 6.9 million to 5.6 million in 2014), wouldn't building a wall make it harder for them to return south to their homelands? (http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/11/19/5-facts-about-illegal-im...
2. How will throwing the approximately 20 million of the newly insured American citizens off of Obama Care make America great again for them? (http://obamacarefacts.com/sign-ups/obamacare-enrollment-numbers/)
3. How will banning all Muslims from entering the US make America great again for Muslim Americans who have family wanting to visit? Or Muslim businessmen who want to invest, or rich Sheikhs who want to be cured at the Mayo Clinic?
4. How will instigating a tariff war promote job growth, especially in a globally-depressed economy?
I could continue, but your problem, Nate, is that you asked and tried to answer these and related questions, and you expected Republican primary voters to do the same. You may even have expected Trump to answer some of these questions. As far as I can tell from reading and watching the news over the last 9 months, neither Trump nor his voters were interested in the questions nor in trying to think through the answers. They just were venting their anger.
1. Since the number of illegal immigrants living in the US has been declining since 2007 (from 12.2 million to 11.3 million in 2014) including for Mexicans (from 6.9 million to 5.6 million in 2014), wouldn't building a wall make it harder for them to return south to their homelands? (http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/11/19/5-facts-about-illegal-im...
2. How will throwing the approximately 20 million of the newly insured American citizens off of Obama Care make America great again for them? (http://obamacarefacts.com/sign-ups/obamacare-enrollment-numbers/)
3. How will banning all Muslims from entering the US make America great again for Muslim Americans who have family wanting to visit? Or Muslim businessmen who want to invest, or rich Sheikhs who want to be cured at the Mayo Clinic?
4. How will instigating a tariff war promote job growth, especially in a globally-depressed economy?
I could continue, but your problem, Nate, is that you asked and tried to answer these and related questions, and you expected Republican primary voters to do the same. You may even have expected Trump to answer some of these questions. As far as I can tell from reading and watching the news over the last 9 months, neither Trump nor his voters were interested in the questions nor in trying to think through the answers. They just were venting their anger.
1
Just ignore how wooden and inept all the candidates were. Trump won because he embraced whole-heartedly the Republican marketing from the last 5 decades and didn't care who complained about it. He said bluntly what the marketing was and was proud about it. He was a close as to saying "a spade is a spade" as he could get and was proud of it. That's why he got the dedicated support to win the primaries. He was unabashedly exactly what that segment is.
3
Of course the coastal dominated media elites would get it wrong. They don't live or would understand the struggles and lives of the average american that live in the fly over states. Dorothy, you are not in NYC anymore.
26
Thank you for running the picture of Sen Mcain as a prisoner of war. A "looser" in Trump's eyes-which is how he views the world-winners and losers. Regardless of which side of the aisle you sit on, to view any soldier..anyone we have sent in harms way to protect our freedoms as anything but a hero to whom we owe a great debt and thanks is absolutely unAmerican.
Perhpas the Vietnam War was misguided, but for those who were called to serve there (and in our other misguided conflicts) we owe a thanks greater than we can give regardless of whether you were captured, came home safe, or gave the ultimate sacrifice-and it is well known how poorly we treat our veterans. To think any other way is an abomination and frankly is just one (maybe the top) of many reasons Trump is unfit to be Commander in Chief. How could any Serviceman want to support a President that thinks you are a looser by being captured? The only thing Trump has done for America is to show how the tax code and bankruptcy laws can benefit an individual and how they are so skewed to favor the rich.
I did not support Sen Mcain against Obama, and I certainly do not agree with many of his policies, but I do hold him up as a great example of someone who loves his country and to whom we owe a great thanks for his years of service.
Perhpas the Vietnam War was misguided, but for those who were called to serve there (and in our other misguided conflicts) we owe a thanks greater than we can give regardless of whether you were captured, came home safe, or gave the ultimate sacrifice-and it is well known how poorly we treat our veterans. To think any other way is an abomination and frankly is just one (maybe the top) of many reasons Trump is unfit to be Commander in Chief. How could any Serviceman want to support a President that thinks you are a looser by being captured? The only thing Trump has done for America is to show how the tax code and bankruptcy laws can benefit an individual and how they are so skewed to favor the rich.
I did not support Sen Mcain against Obama, and I certainly do not agree with many of his policies, but I do hold him up as a great example of someone who loves his country and to whom we owe a great thanks for his years of service.
7
Oh please! I agree that any military person's service should be appreciated, but it's absurd to say John McCain was "sent in harms way to protect our freedoms." For goodness' sake, he was a fighter pilot in the Vietnam War. That had nothing to do with "protecting our freedoms."
4
I am surprised to see he made it this far—I mean, with all that garbage talk and backwards hatred thinking he slung about. But lets face it, the more you (the political insiders) say he doesn't have a chance, the more it says to us (outsiders) 'hey you know what, I'll take his faults over those other spit and polish hucksters any day'. Same notion for Sanders, though I think he's a real gentlemen and worthy of much more respect.
Times up, changes have to come.
Times up, changes have to come.
3
I understand why the voters have such a high level of discontent with the establishment candidates. What I can’t understand is why so many of these voters in economic pain are willing to vote for a man who tells them to their faces that the minimum wage can’t be raised and they’re just going to have to work harder:
“…taxes too high, wages too high, we’re not going to be able to compete against the world. I hate to say it, but we have to leave it the way it is. People have to go out, they have to work really hard and have to get into that upper stratosphere.”
So their attraction to Trump is that he “tells it like it is” even though he’s telling them quite clearly that he is indifferent to their economic pain and their struggle to stay afloat. Some of the commenters say they’re voting for Trump to teach the political establishment a lesson. Nose, meet spite.
“…taxes too high, wages too high, we’re not going to be able to compete against the world. I hate to say it, but we have to leave it the way it is. People have to go out, they have to work really hard and have to get into that upper stratosphere.”
So their attraction to Trump is that he “tells it like it is” even though he’s telling them quite clearly that he is indifferent to their economic pain and their struggle to stay afloat. Some of the commenters say they’re voting for Trump to teach the political establishment a lesson. Nose, meet spite.
2
Nate I think the real problem is that in your world of wine and cheese parties you remain stuck in ideological echo-chambers. You have this degree or that which makes you think you know better than the rest and it's your job to paint the picture.
We NOW live in a world where social media and personal communication devices rule the world thus allowing the unwashed masses to communicate ideas and facts free from biased centralized media influence.
Trump 2016!
We NOW live in a world where social media and personal communication devices rule the world thus allowing the unwashed masses to communicate ideas and facts free from biased centralized media influence.
Trump 2016!
19
In my first NYT comment about Trump I said one should not underestimate him. He reminded me too much of GW Bush only without the political experience. Remarkably, many people voting for him saw his inexperience ("outsider status") as an asset.
I agree with Nate Cohn's analysis that too many candidates, lack of unified establishment condemnation for his most reprehensible comments, and practically unlimited (for profit) media coverage helped to cinch it for him.
But Trump to me represents the revenge of the dispossessed. There are many people in this country who are not thriving, to put it mildly. Wages are stagnant, millions of blue collar jobs have been outsourced, people who have good jobs are fearful they will lose them, essential living expenses continue to rise, college is unaffordable without high levels of debt for many, most Americans have no savings and fear becoming ill with sub-optimal health insurance. These examples just touch the surface of the economic crisis facing the middle class and are partly why mortality and suicides are rising among whites for the first time in decades.
Also, Americans work extremely hard with high productivity but we have substandard levels of social benefits compared to most western countries. Meanwhile, our extreme wealth is being concentrated in the hands of very few.
The sad thing is that Trump effectively channels the angst and replaces it with anger devoid of substantive solutions. He won't help anyone.
I agree with Nate Cohn's analysis that too many candidates, lack of unified establishment condemnation for his most reprehensible comments, and practically unlimited (for profit) media coverage helped to cinch it for him.
But Trump to me represents the revenge of the dispossessed. There are many people in this country who are not thriving, to put it mildly. Wages are stagnant, millions of blue collar jobs have been outsourced, people who have good jobs are fearful they will lose them, essential living expenses continue to rise, college is unaffordable without high levels of debt for many, most Americans have no savings and fear becoming ill with sub-optimal health insurance. These examples just touch the surface of the economic crisis facing the middle class and are partly why mortality and suicides are rising among whites for the first time in decades.
Also, Americans work extremely hard with high productivity but we have substandard levels of social benefits compared to most western countries. Meanwhile, our extreme wealth is being concentrated in the hands of very few.
The sad thing is that Trump effectively channels the angst and replaces it with anger devoid of substantive solutions. He won't help anyone.
4
Really good post-mortem.
What are the lessons here for the GOP ?
1. Policy matters less - Maybe over-simplifying but Trump is not exactly a policy wonk.
2. Changing GOP - Historically, the more affluent you were, the more you agreed with GOP policies (low taxes, etc). But Obama has changed that. Many urban higher income voters are now Dem. But this "upstairs/ downstairs" focus of Obama left a large middle which Trump catered to better than the others.
3. Rules - Likely biggest change. Cohn made the point that if the GOP had Dem rules, Trump wouldn't necessarily win. GOP will install some form of super-delegates. This also deals with the "number 17" since super-delegates will quickly winnow the field.
4. Blue State "rock star" - This was perhaps Cohn's most interesting observation. His previous analysis suggested that blue states (where GOP will never win in general) still produce about 40% of delegates. Assumption was that this would moderate the choice. But not when the guy is a "rock star" billionaire who is from a blue state. (Sorry Romney.)
Anyone for President Schwarzenegger in 2020 ? (It's a joke.)
What are the lessons here for the GOP ?
1. Policy matters less - Maybe over-simplifying but Trump is not exactly a policy wonk.
2. Changing GOP - Historically, the more affluent you were, the more you agreed with GOP policies (low taxes, etc). But Obama has changed that. Many urban higher income voters are now Dem. But this "upstairs/ downstairs" focus of Obama left a large middle which Trump catered to better than the others.
3. Rules - Likely biggest change. Cohn made the point that if the GOP had Dem rules, Trump wouldn't necessarily win. GOP will install some form of super-delegates. This also deals with the "number 17" since super-delegates will quickly winnow the field.
4. Blue State "rock star" - This was perhaps Cohn's most interesting observation. His previous analysis suggested that blue states (where GOP will never win in general) still produce about 40% of delegates. Assumption was that this would moderate the choice. But not when the guy is a "rock star" billionaire who is from a blue state. (Sorry Romney.)
Anyone for President Schwarzenegger in 2020 ? (It's a joke.)
Much of the rage against "candidates who say one thing during the campaign and do whatever ... they want when elected" is Obama's responsibility. When he had his biggest Congressional and popular support during his first two years, he pushed to forward opponents' goals. Only during the last two years -- facing strongest opposition -- has he seemed to try to keep so Thisme of his campaign promises. He sat out the 2010 and 2014 campaign seasons, making during his following State of the Union addresses, the campaign speeches appropriate the previous fall and summer. See Bill Press "Buyer's Remorse. There was far too much of Geithner and pals.
This is addition to what is being said about the Repubs. back to Willie Horton, and beyond.
This is addition to what is being said about the Repubs. back to Willie Horton, and beyond.
2
Everything listed by the author was correct but he missed the biggest factors. He underestimated Trump's skill at playing the media and its" talented " political interviewers. He ran rings around the Tappers, Todd's, Dickerson's and Blitzers. And, amazingly, he failed to recognize, even now, the anger and frustration of the electorate with the world in turmoil and wages falling and everyone seeing "made in China" every time they purchase a TV set and virtually everything else. To scapegoat a group (in this case Mexicans) has worked since the beginning of time. Trump sensed this even if the author and so many others did not. Many of the rest of us did and some of us even remember losing bets on Dukakis was he was up 30 points over Bush '41. I don't think Hillary for a moment isn't on to all this. This isn't her first rodeo. But the race will be close. Count on it.
1
But let's face it - if you work for a wage for a living, how does the presence of a large pool of immigrant labor (either illegal or a visa holder) help your job prospects?
5
One day Nate I hope to read the same postmortem about how you could have been so wrong about Hillary Clinton but at that point the Times will say "Let's just move on".
7
I don't think it's accurate to characterize Cruz as a lucky break for Trump. Remember their little alliance at the beginning of the campaign? To me it appeared that Trump was actually very smart; he knew he wanted Cruz as the last man standing and dispatched the stronger opponents first.
5
While damaging the others? Like they weren't damaged before hand? If anything I would say Trump's image is slightly tarnished for even being on stage with the 16 ridiculous republicans. (Carly? Come on.) The GOP has harmed the nation in so many ways by those that are elected not doing their jobs. The vacuum has been filled and the GOP has been Trumped.....
2
Actually its what he, and the GOP, got wrong about America.
3
Why should anybody listen to what any of you pundits say? You are all part of a never ending pundocracy, who's very exisitence is to perpetuate itself.
9
The ascendance of this type of candidate in the United States should not surprise anyone. For the last thirty-plus years we've been on a proto-fascist path as a nation (look up Chris Hedges articles about this topic); a journey that accelerated towards its destination after 9/11, with the imposition of the so-called PATRIOT Act.
Since then we've gotten into a situation wherein habeas corpus rights/protection have essentially been eliminated. The state has given itself to kill anyone -- including American citizens -- extra-judicially. People are tortured in our prisons (solitary confinement, beatings, psychological abuse, etc.). Police departments throughout the country routinely violates people's rights with impunity. We've been subjected to rampant corruption at the highest levels, most of it done with total impunity (Wall Street criminals, torture committed by CIA/Military, etc.).
In essence, we've already in the final stages of transitioning toward corporate state fascism.
Because of confluence of events and interests (corporate interests), it is only natural that a personage with demagogy and fascist instincts would enter "stage" now.
Mr. Nate Cohn claims he got something wrong about the GOP front-runner, but in fact he and the rest of the corporate media establishment have been playing an important role in his ascendance, mainly by deploying the tried and true propaganda technique of "repetition."
Since then we've gotten into a situation wherein habeas corpus rights/protection have essentially been eliminated. The state has given itself to kill anyone -- including American citizens -- extra-judicially. People are tortured in our prisons (solitary confinement, beatings, psychological abuse, etc.). Police departments throughout the country routinely violates people's rights with impunity. We've been subjected to rampant corruption at the highest levels, most of it done with total impunity (Wall Street criminals, torture committed by CIA/Military, etc.).
In essence, we've already in the final stages of transitioning toward corporate state fascism.
Because of confluence of events and interests (corporate interests), it is only natural that a personage with demagogy and fascist instincts would enter "stage" now.
Mr. Nate Cohn claims he got something wrong about the GOP front-runner, but in fact he and the rest of the corporate media establishment have been playing an important role in his ascendance, mainly by deploying the tried and true propaganda technique of "repetition."
3
I suspect that it helps that Hillary's neocon policies make her a reasonable alternative for some of the big funders. Why waste money on a bunch of losers; better to put it into keeping Congress under control.
2
why do you persist in seeing trump as that different from the other 16 ?
The worst Foreign policy blunder in a generation was Iraq; many of the "mature" contenders rehired as advisors the guys who gave us Iraq
Soc Security is not in crisis, and is *the bedrock* of retirment, as you must know, yet the 16 other contenders lie about the crisis, and want to cut soc security
who is the mature person here ? certainly not marco
Kasich, the "moderate" wants a balanced budget amendment (ugh); cruz wants the gold standard (double ugh), rand, if you believe the novelist, wants specie currency...Trump is the sane one !!
Recently Speaker Boehner appeared at stanford and said what we all know: the tea party is crazy
Lets replay that: Speaker Boehner prevented many bills from becoming law because the tea party didn't want them
These were bills backed by a majority of both sides of the aisle, that the country desperately needs
yet speaker Boehner was willing to trash our country to appease, his words, crazys
and trump is not the mature guy ?
The worst Foreign policy blunder in a generation was Iraq; many of the "mature" contenders rehired as advisors the guys who gave us Iraq
Soc Security is not in crisis, and is *the bedrock* of retirment, as you must know, yet the 16 other contenders lie about the crisis, and want to cut soc security
who is the mature person here ? certainly not marco
Kasich, the "moderate" wants a balanced budget amendment (ugh); cruz wants the gold standard (double ugh), rand, if you believe the novelist, wants specie currency...Trump is the sane one !!
Recently Speaker Boehner appeared at stanford and said what we all know: the tea party is crazy
Lets replay that: Speaker Boehner prevented many bills from becoming law because the tea party didn't want them
These were bills backed by a majority of both sides of the aisle, that the country desperately needs
yet speaker Boehner was willing to trash our country to appease, his words, crazys
and trump is not the mature guy ?
5
The thing is this. Trump really does know what's wrong with America and he knows how to speak to the people that are fed up with the status quo! He'll be underestimated again vs. Clinton. And he's right about Clinton, when he says she'd only have a 5% approval rating if she was a man. That'll resonate loud and clear throughout America, men and women alike. Not only that, but Hillary's got demons and she's got some skeletons in the closet. Trump knows it and you can bet that he'll exploit it!! He will be the next POTUS!! He's got my vote!!!!
10
I suspect Trump has a whole graveyard in his closet. It will be interesting when all that starts coming out. But many won't care. Usually we care about that stuff when we're looking for a reason to dislike the person anyway. But I'm sure the sleazy deals and the backroom deals and the cutting of corners and skirting the law are all there. Odd why there wasn't more blow back from Trump abusing U.S. visa regulations to bring in foreign workers for his business. Imagine if that were Hillary.
The NYT is locked into its own hyper liberal cocoon and it simply doesn't know what most people think. You missed this because the culture of the NYT is extremely out of synch with most of America. And the NYT has gone further to the Left in the last few years with its support of BLM, Syrian migration, transgender bathrooms, etc. The media in general took Trump copy and film and ran with them for a year and thought that it could keep a clear conscience because they trashed Trump everyday. But one thing you need to know. People watch and read the media, but they don't necessarily like it and they certainly don't take instruction from it. It's even possible that all the "elite" disdain backfired. The NYT, as it goes into the general, needs to realize that its attempt to derail Trump not only failed but might benefited him. You might consider a little more reporting and a lot less condemnation going forward.
39
I don't think the media and the political elite realize that no one believes them anymore, because they have lied to the citizens of this country so many times.
1
I don't think many of us actually underestimated Mr. Trump. Rather, we overestimated the Republic Party. After Governor Mitt "47 Percent" Romney, we thought the Party may have learned its lessons. There, we were wrong. Maybe Donald "53 Percent" Trump will be a sufficient wake-up call. Then, again, if the past is prologue . . . maybe not.
2
THe mainstream media still hasn't caught on to the fact they need to change the way they do business. STop partying with the power elites. AVoid the Acela corridor. Go see what the unemployment data is hiding: many of the remployed are making far less than before, and their jobs have gone overseas. Get your arms around the ongoing damage caused by the home mortgage crisis. Find out why educated people are willing to put up with Trump's boorish behavior--and how desperate they are to return to security of all kinds (it is incomprehensible that the US still doesn't fingerprint and photograph visitors the way other countries do, and mount a manhunt when they overstay visas). WHile Trump and Sanders supporters have differing priorities, they come from the same place.
21
Yes, you got it wrong. Thanks a lot. We don't need an article where you tell us why.
8
Nate:
What you "got wrong" wasn't so much about Trump, as understanding the mood of the voters. If you added together those voting for Trump and Sanders - and keeping in mind all the independents who were not allowed to vote - you would have a significant majority aligned against the status quo, against the Establishment. And yet, you and your peers at the NYT and in the MSM seem oblivious to it as you nakedly cheer lead for the Queen of the Status Quo, Hillary, and the massive coverage you gave for free to Trump, was more about how improbable his candidacy was.
You should spend less time with your numbers ad statistics and get out with real people if you want to know what's going on.
What you "got wrong" wasn't so much about Trump, as understanding the mood of the voters. If you added together those voting for Trump and Sanders - and keeping in mind all the independents who were not allowed to vote - you would have a significant majority aligned against the status quo, against the Establishment. And yet, you and your peers at the NYT and in the MSM seem oblivious to it as you nakedly cheer lead for the Queen of the Status Quo, Hillary, and the massive coverage you gave for free to Trump, was more about how improbable his candidacy was.
You should spend less time with your numbers ad statistics and get out with real people if you want to know what's going on.
6
Sigh - the whole point of Nate site is to look at things (sports, politics etc) via numbers and statistics.
I don't think anyone could have predicted how much money the media could make off of a Trump Presidential Bid. The knowledge that love or hate of Trump would galvanize their particular 'echo chamber' base coupled with the allure of making that much money so quickly and easily pretty much guaranteed that the media would make his campaign front and center. The concept of fairness and reasonable coverage is a non-starter in all US media organizations. The dollar rules all of them.
2
What you got wrong is not looking at your privilege. A salaried, elite-level writer who probably has health benefits, connections, money to travel, etc. The country is suffering, and the NYT knows nothing about it because its run by an elite set of college-educated people who write like they havent been outside of Manhattan or Brooklyn in a while. And yes, you are underestimating him for the general as well. NAFTA, TPP, the war in Iraq, racism...at lease two of these things are bipartison concerns. Trump has a very good chance in the general, and it aint because of Bernie supporters. Its because people want to annihilate the government and just see what happens. A protest vote against not just the establishment, but against all the people WE hired who refused to work for half the country. I am no Trump supporter and will not vote for him, but I live in the real world, where even 12/hour is not enough and even WalMart is getting expensive.
33
And Wall,art will get more expensive if Trump puts his tariffs in place.
Too few Stable, good paying jobs
No one on Wall Street went to jail
Healthcare is too expensive
Too much focus on tax breaks that 99.9% don't get
A congress that is not for anything
We don't want to be the gig economy
We want stable good paying jobs with affordable healthcare
No one on Wall Street went to jail
Healthcare is too expensive
Too much focus on tax breaks that 99.9% don't get
A congress that is not for anything
We don't want to be the gig economy
We want stable good paying jobs with affordable healthcare
26
Tell us how to get there, Deirdre, and don't say "feel the Bern." Tired socialism from the 1930s won't cut it.
2
Judging by the effort to stop his candidacy, a lot of people had the good idea about his capabilities. Including... the author.
The damage of the Roger Ailes machine cannot be underestimated. Once a large block of voters can be wielded as a political cudgel to stop their own healthcare, demonize women and gay people, and search for ever more conservative "solutions" via rich people like Trump, who manufactures in China last I heard, then it is going to be a long slog back to anything resembling Reality.
The same people who cannot wait for healthcare to be undone by Trump are flocking to free health clinics aka Socialist Medicine, because they have no healthcare. Bernie Sanders voters who are far left are justifying a vote for Trump, who says one of his first acts along with a wall and schmoozing some generals will be some SC justice like his favorite ex-judge: Scalia.
The same people who cannot wait for healthcare to be undone by Trump are flocking to free health clinics aka Socialist Medicine, because they have no healthcare. Bernie Sanders voters who are far left are justifying a vote for Trump, who says one of his first acts along with a wall and schmoozing some generals will be some SC justice like his favorite ex-judge: Scalia.
1
overestimated I meant
Seventeen, the magic number; each and every one of them a clown on that "deep bench" of a three-ring circus made ever more bizarre by the "poof parade" as they fell, one-by-one, leaving one mutant, orange-toupéed clown standing in his own bilious pool of bile.
Back when candidates were almost falling off the ends of their bizarre "debate" stages, it seemed pretty clear that the GOP nomination exercise would end in a way totally consonant with what the Republican Party has become: a ship of fools with a stage of idiots. But not this way.
Let's hope that the American people are smarter that the Party of "no" and "no ideas." This should not be too challenging a task, but then who last summer would have predicted where we find ourselves now? In the final analysis, we alone are responsible for who and where we are.
www.endthemadnessnow.org
Back when candidates were almost falling off the ends of their bizarre "debate" stages, it seemed pretty clear that the GOP nomination exercise would end in a way totally consonant with what the Republican Party has become: a ship of fools with a stage of idiots. But not this way.
Let's hope that the American people are smarter that the Party of "no" and "no ideas." This should not be too challenging a task, but then who last summer would have predicted where we find ourselves now? In the final analysis, we alone are responsible for who and where we are.
www.endthemadnessnow.org
3
If you all got left is name-calling, sit back and get ready for President Trump.
5
Yes you should have known all along. The people are fed up. You represent what the people are fed up with. Your pompas attitude like you seem to know what is best for us. Hilary wants war with Russia, President Trump wants to be business partners. The American people want a president that will tell the truth and put the AMERICAN people first. We have actually all been brainwashed to accept that all politicians lie. It is never okay for any politician to lie to the American people. I haven't enjoyed politics for years and am having a blast. Oh to see the handwringing of the elite.
19
What about asking yourself, "What did I get wrong about Bernie Sanders?"
24
"The Republican elite treated Mr. Trump as it would have treated a fairly ordinary candidate, even as he said extraordinary things. That’s a big part of why he won."
Does this suggest that the "Republican elite", at core, really does NOT have a problem with Trump?
Trump is simply the next Republican/conservative regression beginning with Nixon's "War on Crime" and "silent majority"to be followed by Reagan's "I believe in states' rights", Cadillac driving welfare queens,"...government is the problem”.
Trump's campaign is the denouement of the Republican Party's modus operandi of the last 50+ years.
Does this suggest that the "Republican elite", at core, really does NOT have a problem with Trump?
Trump is simply the next Republican/conservative regression beginning with Nixon's "War on Crime" and "silent majority"to be followed by Reagan's "I believe in states' rights", Cadillac driving welfare queens,"...government is the problem”.
Trump's campaign is the denouement of the Republican Party's modus operandi of the last 50+ years.
2
There is no need to try to understand what we got wrong about Trump. He's a predator who promises to make the trains run on time. What we got wrong was the intensity of the hunger so many people feel and the rage that so many on the right have gleefully formented. The Democrats have stood back and wrung their hands while the Ted Cruzes and Fox Newses have ceaselessly trumpeted the notion that the middle class is disappearing because of the government, not because the 1% is sucking all the money out the top. If we are going to reclaim our national sanity, the Democratic Party is going to have to get much more muscular in its message.
3
The top isn't sucking up the money. They are trying to maintain there money while the government is taking a larger percentage of people's money and giving more to 60% of society that gets far more than than everyone else gets.
Class warfare exists. However, the rich are not the problem. Blame the poor who refuse to work and the government that takes from the succesful to grant everything to those undeserving.
Make America Meritocracy again not a place where the losers breed like rabbits and demand more and contribute less.
Class warfare exists. However, the rich are not the problem. Blame the poor who refuse to work and the government that takes from the succesful to grant everything to those undeserving.
Make America Meritocracy again not a place where the losers breed like rabbits and demand more and contribute less.
The problem is that so many analysts, like so many of the comments in this column, dismissed Trump because you did not like his views. Similarly, Bernie Sanders was dismissed by many analysts because he was not seen as a candidate whose views merited attention. And the continued insults directed at both of them will no doubt further alienate their supporters. I think it is time for all of you who know that you know better to now smile. I know that Republicans have experience in patronizing each other and Liberals, especially those from Manhattan, are also very good at doing this.
8
None of the above. This simply shows that Americans, born and raised on TV and the Media, will go whichever way the Media gives the most attention. Congratulations Media! You have spawned Trump. You made lots of money "selling" him. Now it's too late to ignore him.
3
Someone from New York insinuating that many Americans are stupid and uninformed? I'm shocked.
5
In the past, according to New Yorkers, "there is nothing west of the Hudson."
Now there is the west coast, but the rest is just "fly-over" states.
Now there is the west coast, but the rest is just "fly-over" states.
1
Most of this rehashing of the Republican contenders simply fails to be blunt enough: none of the supposedly "deep bench" of potential Republican nominees were very good or had any business seeking the presidency. Notwithstanding, control of a majority of state governments and both houses of Congress, Republicans could not develop a particularly good nominee for the presidency. So Republicans fielded a group which consisted of people entirely ill prepared for national office under the glare of a national campaign: Carson, Fiorina, Gilmore, Jindal, Perry, Rubio, and Walker; deeply flawed and/or disliked: Christie and Cruz; those with little the public appeal: Bush, Graham, Kaisch, Paul, and Pataki; and factional religious candidates: Huckabee and Sanotrum. Given this mediocrity, Donald Trump appeared like a giant by comparison.
4
Here's a question Mr. Cohn might ask himself: Does he have a single friend/colleague/acquaintance/family member who supports Donald Trump? If the answer is no it probably explains a great deal about why he has no idea what's going on.
33
It's startling that the left/right establishment still doesn't seem to "get it" at all. The reason for Trump's success is crystal clear: Trump is willing to speak truths and ask questions that challenge the status quo in a way that millions of people find appealing.
Why must we allow exploitable workers to flood across our border from Mexico at the behest of Big Agriculture? Why must we spend hundreds of billions of dollars propping up our NATO allies when the Cold War has been over for 30+ years? Why do we have to be enemies with Russia, and allies with Saudi Arabia, when the latter is a brutal theocracy with a human rights record on par with Nazi Germany? Why do we have to concede to Iran the privilege to develop nuclear technologies? Why is globalization a foregone conclusion? Why can't we start penalizing companies/countries that promote wholesale outsourcing of American jobs? Why do we have to spend trillions in blood and treasure on misguided, foreign expansionist wars? Why do we have to open our doors to refugees who are potentially harboring Islamic extremists?
Trump's appeal is that he wants to put America's interests first. He is also a bold advocate for women's health issues, and a charismatic leader with a long history of running his companies by meritocracy. This is a long way off from the bigoted, racist xenophobe the media has falsely portrayed him to be.
Why must we allow exploitable workers to flood across our border from Mexico at the behest of Big Agriculture? Why must we spend hundreds of billions of dollars propping up our NATO allies when the Cold War has been over for 30+ years? Why do we have to be enemies with Russia, and allies with Saudi Arabia, when the latter is a brutal theocracy with a human rights record on par with Nazi Germany? Why do we have to concede to Iran the privilege to develop nuclear technologies? Why is globalization a foregone conclusion? Why can't we start penalizing companies/countries that promote wholesale outsourcing of American jobs? Why do we have to spend trillions in blood and treasure on misguided, foreign expansionist wars? Why do we have to open our doors to refugees who are potentially harboring Islamic extremists?
Trump's appeal is that he wants to put America's interests first. He is also a bold advocate for women's health issues, and a charismatic leader with a long history of running his companies by meritocracy. This is a long way off from the bigoted, racist xenophobe the media has falsely portrayed him to be.
41
Pray tell: what truths has Mr. Trump spoken? His insults of everyone from women to foreigners to the spouses of political opponents? His insistence that what he says (often in repetition) is true, despite the facts which show otherwise? That he's his own best counsel?
His appeal isn't in who he is; it's the irrational appeal of who he's not: one of the elected officials to whom Americans all too often irrationally blame for their status in life.
I live in a small city in Upstate New York. I haven't met a Trump supporter yet who's shown any modicum of understanding on the so-called "issues that are important to them." Most mention the debt without understanding what it really is; others talk about corruption with as fanciful an understanding as many in this nation think about the Kennedy assassination. No evidence, no examples. Just hyperbolic vitriol against this "machine" they can't even define.
Sadly, irrationality is growing in America; facts don't resonate like they once did. We're headed to a dark place when our new motto seems to be:
"It's true because I believe it."
His appeal isn't in who he is; it's the irrational appeal of who he's not: one of the elected officials to whom Americans all too often irrationally blame for their status in life.
I live in a small city in Upstate New York. I haven't met a Trump supporter yet who's shown any modicum of understanding on the so-called "issues that are important to them." Most mention the debt without understanding what it really is; others talk about corruption with as fanciful an understanding as many in this nation think about the Kennedy assassination. No evidence, no examples. Just hyperbolic vitriol against this "machine" they can't even define.
Sadly, irrationality is growing in America; facts don't resonate like they once did. We're headed to a dark place when our new motto seems to be:
"It's true because I believe it."
1
"willing to speak truths" Really?
I thought Trump was a birther and apparently still is.
I thought Trump was a birther and apparently still is.
Have a try then. I hope you will enjoy.
Are you kidding?
Whenever anyone disagreed with Obama on ANYTHING they were immediately branded with being a hater and a bigot. Disappointed that Obama added trillions to the debt? You're such a hater and a racist!!!!
There was a time when it wasn't shameful to be proud of your country. Progressives do everything to convince women and non-whites that they are just poor little victims of the white man's privilege. Any disagreement with this notion and you are a HATER, a bigot, racist, must be from the South, Texas even, uneducated, and, of course, stupid! Because all progressives are superior and highly educated! The United States is just a bunch of land with a shameful past built on the backs of victims. If you don't believe that you deserve to have your face bloodied by a peace-loving Trump protestor.
Trump has no problem with immigrants. He and his supporters do have a problem with illegal immigrants, but of course that it perceived to be racist. The media portray police who are forced to shoot dangerous thugs as living proof that cops exist only to shoot minorities for fun and target practice.
It IS refreshing to hear that somebody wants America to be great and strong in the midst of all the garbage spewed by so many that the US has nothing to be proud of.
This is just the tip of the iceberg of what some people claim not to understand.
Whenever anyone disagreed with Obama on ANYTHING they were immediately branded with being a hater and a bigot. Disappointed that Obama added trillions to the debt? You're such a hater and a racist!!!!
There was a time when it wasn't shameful to be proud of your country. Progressives do everything to convince women and non-whites that they are just poor little victims of the white man's privilege. Any disagreement with this notion and you are a HATER, a bigot, racist, must be from the South, Texas even, uneducated, and, of course, stupid! Because all progressives are superior and highly educated! The United States is just a bunch of land with a shameful past built on the backs of victims. If you don't believe that you deserve to have your face bloodied by a peace-loving Trump protestor.
Trump has no problem with immigrants. He and his supporters do have a problem with illegal immigrants, but of course that it perceived to be racist. The media portray police who are forced to shoot dangerous thugs as living proof that cops exist only to shoot minorities for fun and target practice.
It IS refreshing to hear that somebody wants America to be great and strong in the midst of all the garbage spewed by so many that the US has nothing to be proud of.
This is just the tip of the iceberg of what some people claim not to understand.
38
We all underestimated Trump, whom we regarded as a creature of reality television who would fade as he tripped over his vitriolic statements and dismal business record. However, Trump tied early into a disaffected core of voters who believed they were disenfranchised by the system and that Washington was ineffective and ignoring their needs. That core of 35% of primary voters was sufficient to prevail in the early primaries, which were filled with numerous candidates fracturing the anti Trump vote. I was puzzled because I had several acquaintances who supported Trump. When I asked why, one person, a former Silicon Valley CEO, told me that we needed to shake up the system in Washington and Trump was the only candidate who could do so. Later primaries simply brought about a bandwagon effect. When his only opponent was Ted Cruz, it was unpalatable for many voters, especially in the Northeast, to vote with Cruz. The issue now is whether Trump can expand his core electorate to embrace moderates. Although his approval ratings are unbelievably low, so are Clinton's, and primary voters have not responded to attacks on Trump or shown a willingness to demand substantive policy positions or examine his record. I would not underestimate him again. Many people in America are frankly furious (I would use another term but for the NYT standards) and they may well embrace Trump as someone who will be willing to break the proverbial eggs to make an omelet.
9
I think Nate Cohn has a lot of insight, but he is wrong about Rubio. It was telling how Christie nailed him. in the debate, on his mantra "Obama knows exactly what he is doing" statement. The idea that there is a plot afoot by leftist revolutionaries led by a sitting President is a arch-conservative trope. Rubio did not have much more to say. He was appealing to the same constituency as Cruz
3
One more thing you got wrong about Donald Trump: The part where the Republican Party has been rousing the rabble for the last 30 years and the rise of this demagogue is the inevitable result.
13
After reading this article, it seems to me to offer a list of secondary reasons for Trumps victory, but misses a primary one.
Yes. for a all the small tactical advantages Trump had, his primary advantage is the fact that he took on an explicitly protectionist and hardline anti-immigrant position from day 1. This is a niche that has had some success in previous Republican leadership races (note the Buchanan candidacy), but is a particularly powerful message in a period of economic uncertainty.
With white working class despair on the rise, and economic recovery being tepid, Trump came in with a message that was consistent if crude. America is suffering because of bad trade arrangements with the rest of the world and we would have more economic security for our citizens if we had far less immigration.
And Trump being Trump, he added the flourish of foreign "rapists" and the foreign hoarde escaping war regions for good measure.
Only people who are fairly live in an isolated analytical bubble, detached from the life of working America, can miss this underlying frustration in American society. It is real. The growing inequality and scandals of tax evasion by the rich and the like are having an impact on the body politic, whether the professional statisticians want to acknowledge it or not.
Yes. for a all the small tactical advantages Trump had, his primary advantage is the fact that he took on an explicitly protectionist and hardline anti-immigrant position from day 1. This is a niche that has had some success in previous Republican leadership races (note the Buchanan candidacy), but is a particularly powerful message in a period of economic uncertainty.
With white working class despair on the rise, and economic recovery being tepid, Trump came in with a message that was consistent if crude. America is suffering because of bad trade arrangements with the rest of the world and we would have more economic security for our citizens if we had far less immigration.
And Trump being Trump, he added the flourish of foreign "rapists" and the foreign hoarde escaping war regions for good measure.
Only people who are fairly live in an isolated analytical bubble, detached from the life of working America, can miss this underlying frustration in American society. It is real. The growing inequality and scandals of tax evasion by the rich and the like are having an impact on the body politic, whether the professional statisticians want to acknowledge it or not.
8
Here's an answer to what you got wrong from Simon Jenkin's column in today's Guardian:
"When democracy slithers towards oligarchy, as has federal America, the mob retaliates. Congress has become an aloof, gerrymandered, constitutional dinosaur. It renders the most powerful nation on Earth ungovernable, even by so palpably sincere and competent a leader as Barack Obama.
No problem, says democracy, and turns to the nearest available antidote. It votes for the outsider, the anti-Washingtonian, the shaker-up of things. If the establishment gangs up to stop him, democracy backs him all the more. It backs him even if he is Trump. Let that be a lesson, says democracy, to all oligarchs and stuffed shirts and nice talkers. Step out of line and we will give you someone so awful, so disruptive, he will be a nightmare."
"When democracy slithers towards oligarchy, as has federal America, the mob retaliates. Congress has become an aloof, gerrymandered, constitutional dinosaur. It renders the most powerful nation on Earth ungovernable, even by so palpably sincere and competent a leader as Barack Obama.
No problem, says democracy, and turns to the nearest available antidote. It votes for the outsider, the anti-Washingtonian, the shaker-up of things. If the establishment gangs up to stop him, democracy backs him all the more. It backs him even if he is Trump. Let that be a lesson, says democracy, to all oligarchs and stuffed shirts and nice talkers. Step out of line and we will give you someone so awful, so disruptive, he will be a nightmare."
83
For any people claiming that Trump gets it but Clinton does not, while there may is truth to Clinton' daily life being separated from the grind of people slipping further back, the idea that the Democrats do not want to change the government for the better, albeit in imperfect ways, frustrates me. I don't see a lot of policy daylight between Obama and Clinton and both want a robust economy with robust distribution of the gains from that robust economy. And tackle climate change. And make our government work intelligently.
I see this backlash as people being fed up with the government not delivering on what the people need. Why is that? I am sure there are abundant flaws in both parties, but it is far from symmetric. The GOP has been running and funded on the idea of reducing government services, reducing taxes for the wealthy. People are realizing the emptiness of an ineffective government but on the Democratic side lashing out at those who want to make it work better. Stop the GOP intransigence, and if the government cannot deliver, throw the bums out. But give well intentioned lawmakers a chance. Clinton, despite her many flaws, wants the government to work better.
I see this backlash as people being fed up with the government not delivering on what the people need. Why is that? I am sure there are abundant flaws in both parties, but it is far from symmetric. The GOP has been running and funded on the idea of reducing government services, reducing taxes for the wealthy. People are realizing the emptiness of an ineffective government but on the Democratic side lashing out at those who want to make it work better. Stop the GOP intransigence, and if the government cannot deliver, throw the bums out. But give well intentioned lawmakers a chance. Clinton, despite her many flaws, wants the government to work better.
1
As Hillary said during a debate, only 6 Democrats in Congress supported the single payer option be included in ACA, the rest backed the insurers. How do the rest of the elected Democrats want the government to change American lives for the better?
6
It's a uni-party where the donors buy both sides and get sweet deals for themselves. Why else would any Democrat support NAFTA or the TPP?
3
What you missed, Mr. Cohn, was the psychological toll that the Great Recession took on the lives of every day Americans. Following the Great Recession, an entire generation of Americans lost their retirement, as they watched bailouts happen for everyone but them, despite the fact they played by the rules. They are angry, they feel left out of the American Dream, and they are looking for someone who will level with them.
You premised a lot of your analysis on notions that are practically obsolete thanks to the (too much) information age we now live in. Specifically, the whole idea of "lanes" for the GOP nomination was created and driven by the media, political analyzers included, and was never once questioned for its absurdity or how it arrogantly dumbed-down what should be an important process. And the candidates bought into it, all the while trying to straddle one or two lanes, not realizing they never had a place to begin with. Except Trump.
Numbers will help you in an analysis, but one thing they cannot predict or even try to predict is emotion. And that is what you truly missed. Unless you can find a way to have numbers reflect emotions, you are always going to miss something.
You premised a lot of your analysis on notions that are practically obsolete thanks to the (too much) information age we now live in. Specifically, the whole idea of "lanes" for the GOP nomination was created and driven by the media, political analyzers included, and was never once questioned for its absurdity or how it arrogantly dumbed-down what should be an important process. And the candidates bought into it, all the while trying to straddle one or two lanes, not realizing they never had a place to begin with. Except Trump.
Numbers will help you in an analysis, but one thing they cannot predict or even try to predict is emotion. And that is what you truly missed. Unless you can find a way to have numbers reflect emotions, you are always going to miss something.
51
What you missed, Mr. Cohn, was the psychological toll that the Great Recession took on the lives of every day Americans.
this pounding has been going on for 30 years. Wages in manufacturing have been on the decline since the early 1980s. The stock market has been practically frozen since the late 1980s (in inflation adjusted terms). uncertainty has jumped accordingly. Is it any wonder he did so well among so many people?
this pounding has been going on for 30 years. Wages in manufacturing have been on the decline since the early 1980s. The stock market has been practically frozen since the late 1980s (in inflation adjusted terms). uncertainty has jumped accordingly. Is it any wonder he did so well among so many people?
13
When you see the deep and disgusting racism displayed in comments on stories about Malia Obama's choice of Harvard, why is it a surprise that a race-nationality-religion-baiting candidate like Trump has such broad appeal? Appealing to the baser nature of his countrymen and women (when he wasn't making crude comments about them) was as much a part of his winning strategy as his pie-in-the-sky promises to bring back heavy industry (and accompanying blue collar jobs) in the United States.
298
Phil Although I am not a Trump supporter and there are undoubtedly some racists and xenophobes who support him, it would be a mistake to assume that his core constituency consists of rabid racists. What I missed is that there are many people who believe that they have been left behind (most folks who are working for a wage) and believe that Washington is fundamentally broken (hard to argue with that notion).
17
I'm a Black lawyer in Washington DC, with a degree in American History.
When I moved to DC for my new job, I had just graduated 3 days earlier from law school, and packed my things and drove away from my apartment. In Harvard Square. In Cambridge Massachusetts.
I became a registered Republican when Barack Obama secured the Democratic Party's nomination in 2008. I am a Trump supporter.
Trump appeals to me.
Barack Obama not only offends me, he is a disgrace to my racial heritage and to my ancestors who were brought to America as slaves and helped build the Capitol Mall that I walk through every day on my way to work.
The narrative that everything that holds Obama accountable is part of some racial conspiracy is insulting. And millions of Americans of all races have had enough.
When I moved to DC for my new job, I had just graduated 3 days earlier from law school, and packed my things and drove away from my apartment. In Harvard Square. In Cambridge Massachusetts.
I became a registered Republican when Barack Obama secured the Democratic Party's nomination in 2008. I am a Trump supporter.
Trump appeals to me.
Barack Obama not only offends me, he is a disgrace to my racial heritage and to my ancestors who were brought to America as slaves and helped build the Capitol Mall that I walk through every day on my way to work.
The narrative that everything that holds Obama accountable is part of some racial conspiracy is insulting. And millions of Americans of all races have had enough.
11
Looking forward to when your jealousy towards the POTUS ends!
5
Nate, I fear you are still missing the lesson of Trump and Sanders. Its not about embracing them; its about the public rejecting the corrupt establishment in both parties.
What about the public's disgust with our thoroughly corrupt political system as a whole? Might not that help explain the public embrace of non-establishment candidates in both party primaries?
The widespread recognition that the current political system is by definition a corrupt enterprise based on private funding of campaigns for public office, means no establishment candidate from either party will be broadly acceptable.
The notion that there has to be a "philosophy" that accompanies party membership for either the GOP or democrats, is an idea that is itself dissolving with the times.
In rejecting the political establishment itself in both political parties, the country as a whole is abandoning the two major parties and becoming, in essence, a nation of independents.
The public disgust with establishment politics is why I believe Hillary vs Trump is much more of a horse race than pundits are ready to acknowledge.
Whereas Sanders vs Trump, would be a Sanders blow out victory. Because Sanders would capture in a general election, as he already has captured in the primaries, the zeitgeist of our times.
What about the public's disgust with our thoroughly corrupt political system as a whole? Might not that help explain the public embrace of non-establishment candidates in both party primaries?
The widespread recognition that the current political system is by definition a corrupt enterprise based on private funding of campaigns for public office, means no establishment candidate from either party will be broadly acceptable.
The notion that there has to be a "philosophy" that accompanies party membership for either the GOP or democrats, is an idea that is itself dissolving with the times.
In rejecting the political establishment itself in both political parties, the country as a whole is abandoning the two major parties and becoming, in essence, a nation of independents.
The public disgust with establishment politics is why I believe Hillary vs Trump is much more of a horse race than pundits are ready to acknowledge.
Whereas Sanders vs Trump, would be a Sanders blow out victory. Because Sanders would capture in a general election, as he already has captured in the primaries, the zeitgeist of our times.
32
It certainly is about the public embracing these candidates. On the GOP side, Trump is being celebrated by people who have been forced to hide their bigotry and racism behind closed doors and now feel they can display it proudly. On Bernie's side, there is broad support for his policies; policies that are considered radical in the US, but are accepted as the most basic components of a civilized society in much of the rest of the world. The American people are tired of not being able to have those basic necessities. We want a better life.
Trump simply says what many, many people think, and they're thrilled with the validation. Much of the analysis this election year has been wrong because pundits overintellectualize the situation. Voters are often locked on one issue, possibly two; they discount everything else. Trump has sworn to end illegal immigration and ban Muslims from entering the U.S. The vast majority of Americans support both those positions, in large part because they wish to reduce the population of non-white people entering the country. As with the Western European countries who admitted Syrian refugees, whites here are fearful of their culture losing dominance. Currently, it is projected that in a generation, maybe two, whites will become a minority. No nation, no matter the race or culture, will happily surrender its historical heritage. Trump understands that, and says so; therein lies much of his appeal. It is also the reason that many of his Democratic and Independent supporters are in the closet.
9
It isn't about fear, it's about pride. The problem is that so-called "progressives" have pushed their PC agenda so far that these days it's OK to publicly extol the virtues of every culture in America except our own. Regular white Americans are sick of being told they're racists and bigots for wanting to celebrate their own cultural heritage. Trump supporters have no problem with blacks, Asians, Hispanics, Muslims, etc. Look at the incredible diversity of his rallies. However, the left has falsely framed up the situation as a zero-sum game, and is constantly pushing the notion that white people are somehow "entitled" and should feel White Guilt to compensate. Trump's rhetoric--if you bother to actually listen--is unrelentingly positive and unifying. His message is that we all deserve to be proud of who we are, and we should ALL feel proud to be Americans.
2
Another factor is that people who are doing well under the current economic order, were not aware of the depth of anger and dissatisfaction of the large segment of the white population who aren't doing well.
37
I would argue that the "people who are doing well under the current economic order" are the (mostly white) elites who desperately want to continue the status quo such as free trade agreements, increased immigration. By characterizing those in opposition to such as (uneducated, xenophobic) members of the "white working class" it is much easier for them to continue along with said status quo because such opposition can be portrayed as evidence of an inferior morality, and therefore easily dismissed.
Then again, I'm just a white working class woman so feel free to discount this opinion.
Then again, I'm just a white working class woman so feel free to discount this opinion.
2
What I see that, not only yuo, but the whole NYT got wrong, was twofold, but very related.
The NYT, just like you, have been enamored of Hillary Clinton since before the race begun, and the coverage has been slanted in her favor for far longer than the actual race. This blinded you and the rest of your team, to what was really going on with the electorate, and later, with what was happening with the GOP. You have been so busy promoting her, you forgot to look.
What was obvious, and even carried news stories in NYT, was voter disillusionment. It was known that the general population had had it with the DoNothing congress, with the blocks in government, with being forced to pay a 5K fine for health insurance, just so illegals and people in welfare had coverage. You knew very well that this was the most unpopular congress ever, and people were fed up with both parties playing politics instead of running the country. This was not new, it was very well known.
When Mr Trump gave his speech in June, and entered the race, he hit at all the points above, nothing to loose as he's not a career politician (for who that is career suicide), and people responded. You could have caught wind of his ascent there.
But instead we got Hillary advertisement from then NYT, and Trump bashing because he's not Hillary. And thus the NYT wasted a year talking about him all day long, while promoting her. Free promotion for him, and fueling the 'any bone but her' people.
This is what you missed.
The NYT, just like you, have been enamored of Hillary Clinton since before the race begun, and the coverage has been slanted in her favor for far longer than the actual race. This blinded you and the rest of your team, to what was really going on with the electorate, and later, with what was happening with the GOP. You have been so busy promoting her, you forgot to look.
What was obvious, and even carried news stories in NYT, was voter disillusionment. It was known that the general population had had it with the DoNothing congress, with the blocks in government, with being forced to pay a 5K fine for health insurance, just so illegals and people in welfare had coverage. You knew very well that this was the most unpopular congress ever, and people were fed up with both parties playing politics instead of running the country. This was not new, it was very well known.
When Mr Trump gave his speech in June, and entered the race, he hit at all the points above, nothing to loose as he's not a career politician (for who that is career suicide), and people responded. You could have caught wind of his ascent there.
But instead we got Hillary advertisement from then NYT, and Trump bashing because he's not Hillary. And thus the NYT wasted a year talking about him all day long, while promoting her. Free promotion for him, and fueling the 'any bone but her' people.
This is what you missed.
51
Undocumented immigrants do not have health care coverage. "People on welfare" (by whom I assume you are referring to the elderly and the disabled) had health care through Medicaid and Medicare prior to the passage of the ACA.
1
Trump won because he spoke with honesty, however crude at times, about the real problems and upsets of Americans, while the other GOP contenders recited all the old GOP talking points fabricated by various think tanks working for their donors.
To me, it was apparent from Trump's first speech that he will win the nomination, and I predict that he'll also win in November. I was open minded to understand his capacity, although prior to his run I'd never watched The Apprentice and I'd never been a "fan." Only people who underestimated America's problems (because they were either sheltered by them, or raised to never question the status quo, or who couldn't raise above their personal dislike for Trump) missed the strength of his message. (Same goes for Bernie Sanders in the Democratic camp but Bernie lacked the showman ability and name recognition of Trump in his fight with the Queen of status quo, Hillary Clinton.)
Also, much of Trump's 'sins' have been so grossly extrapolated and/or inflated by the media (eg calling Trump a fascist, or pundits calling him the vilest names each time Trump offended their PC sensibilities) that it all backfired, and turned Trump into the underdog that people had to root for.
Let' not forget: In 2008 Obama won because he promised Change. People still want change, not crumbs. The candidate who'll seem the most able and willing to deliver real Change will win in 2016.
To me, it was apparent from Trump's first speech that he will win the nomination, and I predict that he'll also win in November. I was open minded to understand his capacity, although prior to his run I'd never watched The Apprentice and I'd never been a "fan." Only people who underestimated America's problems (because they were either sheltered by them, or raised to never question the status quo, or who couldn't raise above their personal dislike for Trump) missed the strength of his message. (Same goes for Bernie Sanders in the Democratic camp but Bernie lacked the showman ability and name recognition of Trump in his fight with the Queen of status quo, Hillary Clinton.)
Also, much of Trump's 'sins' have been so grossly extrapolated and/or inflated by the media (eg calling Trump a fascist, or pundits calling him the vilest names each time Trump offended their PC sensibilities) that it all backfired, and turned Trump into the underdog that people had to root for.
Let' not forget: In 2008 Obama won because he promised Change. People still want change, not crumbs. The candidate who'll seem the most able and willing to deliver real Change will win in 2016.
80
"If you had told me about the persistence of the coverage, I wouldn’t have dismissed his chances"
Is there anything else we should have told you?
Is there anything else we should have told you?
11
Did I miss something? Is there no one who understands the GOP has been courting these people for 60 years or more? They are the ones who believed McCarthy was an American hero. The ones who believed, as J. Edgar Hoover did, that being black or Latino automatically made you a communist, that freedom of speech was never intended to be granted to anyone but right-wing fanatics and that anyone entertaining ideas other than extreme conservatism was anti-American. They may represent only a portion of the GOP, but it should be clear now that that portion is the largest of all the portions, the portion that has led to GOP victories at the state level in a majority of states.
Bill of Rights be damned.
Bill of Rights be damned.
16
I see this situation as a clear line running from Reagan Democrats. Let's vote against unions even though we belong to a union and then complain that we lost our jobs and benefits. Let's vote for the Bushes and watch our kids get chewed up in wars and let Bush 2 wreck the economy and try to blame it on Obama. Let's vote for this latest buffoon because now we are free to yell our bigotry to the world. These are the same people that think it's somebody else's fault that they didn't study hard enough in school, it's somebody else's fault that they didn't get the job they wanted, or lost their job because they were unprepared for the job or were hard to get along with, and then didn't want to figure out how to retrain because it's someone else's fault. I, for one, am tired of the irrational Republican electorate dragging us through Sarah Palin, and now Trump, and making us all look like a bunch of fools over bathrooms, guns, abortion, and every other issue they dream up. Good riddance to Ted Cruz.
4
Good observations, Nate, and I'll add something else that no one brings up: Republicans haven't grasped the magnitude of the consequences of the failure of the Bush and Cheney administration. That failure left a huge chasm in the party. Even Cruz grasps for Reagan references, not references to George W. Bush.
Don't forget that George W. Bush was the fundamentalist Christian MBA president. He had it all, ideologically. On paper he was the perfect conservative. But there were cracks in this strategy when he couldn't get the popular vote in the 2000 general election. McCain would have won the 2000 presidential election with a landslide. There were Democrats who would have voted for McCain. Thus, the failure of the Bush administration is a disaster for the Right.
That there is a vacuum at the top of the GOP when there should have been successful leadership paves the way for, uh, anyone, to ascend. With the dramatic failure of the Bush administration, Republican voters know that their establishment Republican Party has failed them. A neocon vision has vaporized with no firm ideology to replace it; there is only vague talk of "conservative values". It's as if the GOP has ideologically released those voters to vote for whomever they want.
The failure in GOP leadership along with the results your analysis, Nate, paves the way for Donald Trump. But Republicans have to work this out for themselves; the rest of the nation might not care about Republican Party problems.
Don't forget that George W. Bush was the fundamentalist Christian MBA president. He had it all, ideologically. On paper he was the perfect conservative. But there were cracks in this strategy when he couldn't get the popular vote in the 2000 general election. McCain would have won the 2000 presidential election with a landslide. There were Democrats who would have voted for McCain. Thus, the failure of the Bush administration is a disaster for the Right.
That there is a vacuum at the top of the GOP when there should have been successful leadership paves the way for, uh, anyone, to ascend. With the dramatic failure of the Bush administration, Republican voters know that their establishment Republican Party has failed them. A neocon vision has vaporized with no firm ideology to replace it; there is only vague talk of "conservative values". It's as if the GOP has ideologically released those voters to vote for whomever they want.
The failure in GOP leadership along with the results your analysis, Nate, paves the way for Donald Trump. But Republicans have to work this out for themselves; the rest of the nation might not care about Republican Party problems.
2
Sounds like you're out of touch, Nate. That's why you got it wrong.
87
The second biggest story here is the complete disconnect between the "media elite," and the "GOP elite" to the GOP voters. It's pretty clear to me Trump voters pay attention to neither. It's also pretty clear to me the GOP elites do not know the roots of their own party. Astonishing disconnect.
My last point is opinion. Trump's supporters are far more mainstream than the elites suppose. Foremost, Most GOP voters reject GOP-inspired gridlock in congress. That's most of it.
Second, the biggest joke to the world about American democracy is how dysfunctional the process has become. Not too far ahead of Iraq.
My last point is opinion. Trump's supporters are far more mainstream than the elites suppose. Foremost, Most GOP voters reject GOP-inspired gridlock in congress. That's most of it.
Second, the biggest joke to the world about American democracy is how dysfunctional the process has become. Not too far ahead of Iraq.
5
Mr. Cohn's headline last week:
"Cruz-Kasich Deal Has the Potential to Stop Trump"
One gets the feeling however, that this is not a problem limited to Mr. Cohn alone, but a general failure of Upshot to be meaningful on any issue. Their main weakness is trying too hard in all the wrong ways: click-bait, comment-bait, heavy on volume, high on fluff based on insta-mining, overeager to influence opinion, all the while achieving mostly the opposite, their stories lasting for minutes at most, then disappearing into nothingness.
No worries kid, it's not your fault. But congratulations on joining Biden, Albright, upstart bankers, among others, to write an entire column in the NYT explaining your "mistakes". No mean achievement, that. Best wishes.
"Cruz-Kasich Deal Has the Potential to Stop Trump"
One gets the feeling however, that this is not a problem limited to Mr. Cohn alone, but a general failure of Upshot to be meaningful on any issue. Their main weakness is trying too hard in all the wrong ways: click-bait, comment-bait, heavy on volume, high on fluff based on insta-mining, overeager to influence opinion, all the while achieving mostly the opposite, their stories lasting for minutes at most, then disappearing into nothingness.
No worries kid, it's not your fault. But congratulations on joining Biden, Albright, upstart bankers, among others, to write an entire column in the NYT explaining your "mistakes". No mean achievement, that. Best wishes.
17
double on that; upshot has been a big dissapointment to me, to facile, to fast
2
It is not so much that this writer and others got things about Donald Trump, it is that they got a lot of things wrong about the American people, especially those who have been left behind the global economy. These writers don't understand society outside of their groovy effete world of diversity and political correctness. They don't understand what it means to physically work hard for a living. They look down upon the working class for not being as educated as them, dismissing them as imbeciles too foolish to get an education. Well the fact of the matter is many of these people can't afford a liberal education, which they see as useless;y impractical in the real world. Most of these people left behind by the global economy are white men, who the effete elite have absolutely nothing to do, or give a second thought. The smugness of the liberals towards these men is summed up by Hillary Clinton's remark that she will put coal miners and coal mine out of business. The liberal care less about people who actually work for a living, unless they belong to a union that proved the Democrats with money. Trump saw what i happening to these people and spoke to their needs and wants. That is why he is successful. Is that so far for the liberal to explain, to understand?
28
What a joke. Trump is not inviting workers to Mar-A-Lago. He is selling them a bunch of baloney. He manufactures his stuff in China. He hires immigrants to work in his golf joints. The same voters who listened to Rush Limbaugh for decades never once questioned him. And they are not questioning Trump, who is just another version of Limbaugh.
1
I am a hard working liberal whose work entails physical labor. trump does not speak for me and neither do you.
1
hey Nate maybe it is time to acknowledge that Mr Trump appeared to be the best choice for the base of your (and my) party. You simply do not give credit to the fact that Mr Trump spoke to the needs of most of the voters. You wrote in depth about numerous tactical errors on the part of the establishment but I would suggest that what was really missing by the parties elite was an understanding or a concern for the voters.
5
I can't believe Times pundits are still wondering how and why Donald Trump became so appealing to the voters. A good place to start is to look at the first two presidents of the 21st century. America became dizzy, careening from the gung ho policies of cowboy George W Bush (who became president thanks to a bizarre chain of circumstances) to the anemic tenure of Barack Obama. It's still mind boggling that a one term neophyte Senator, Barack Obama, upended Hillary Clinton in 2008 with his lofty promises of Hope and Change. Once Obama moved into the White House, his passion disappeared, replaced by an aloof snob who thought he was above it all. Is it any wonder that burned out Middle Class Americans are sick of traditional politicians who make canned promises they have no intention of keeping? Maybe, just maybe, someone who isn't a professional political hack might have a better chance.
Did it occur to Nate Cohen that Americans detest the mainstream media even more than they detest the Congress and the Senate?
Did it occur to Nate Cohen that Americans detest the mainstream media even more than they detest the Congress and the Senate?
15
How about your next article be , "What I Got Wrong About Bernie Sanders"?
8
You underestimated him from the start. (As have many others from NYT)
8
Here are a couple more things:
Alternate Universe
Consumers of Fox News and rightwing talk radio live in an alternate universe, where Those Bad People are to blame for all bad things (immigrants, blacks, women who don't know their place, Muslims, LGBT people...etc.) They were ready for a candidate who didn't tap-dance around saying what they've been convinced is true.
Disappearing jobs
Politicians say they are going to fix this--it never really happened. $30/hour jobs get replaced by $9/hour jobs, and we say it's "job growth." Republicans say if we support their magic "invisible hand" theories, the jobs will magically come back. Trump has his own magic solution: Get Rid of Foreigners. And then the good jobs will reappear, magically. Both parties have shied away from addressing the reality--the GOP has been especially bad.
Alternate Universe
Consumers of Fox News and rightwing talk radio live in an alternate universe, where Those Bad People are to blame for all bad things (immigrants, blacks, women who don't know their place, Muslims, LGBT people...etc.) They were ready for a candidate who didn't tap-dance around saying what they've been convinced is true.
Disappearing jobs
Politicians say they are going to fix this--it never really happened. $30/hour jobs get replaced by $9/hour jobs, and we say it's "job growth." Republicans say if we support their magic "invisible hand" theories, the jobs will magically come back. Trump has his own magic solution: Get Rid of Foreigners. And then the good jobs will reappear, magically. Both parties have shied away from addressing the reality--the GOP has been especially bad.
2
Brilliant, Mary -- except Fox News absolutely loathes Donald Trump and has worked to diminish him.
Disappearing jobs? If there is no solution, what do you suggest? Just give up and accept your new $9 job? (I'll bet you do not work for $9 an hour!)
The Democrats have no clue how to deal with this either. Obama has had two terms and made everything exponentially worse.
Disappearing jobs? If there is no solution, what do you suggest? Just give up and accept your new $9 job? (I'll bet you do not work for $9 an hour!)
The Democrats have no clue how to deal with this either. Obama has had two terms and made everything exponentially worse.
3
I'm a Sanders supporter. Since the powers that be have assured that he will not become the Democratic nominee despite his popularity, I will vote Trump because I don't want the status quo. I want to see a bright future for the younger generation in this country and I don't see anything getting better for them if we keep the status quo. I believe him to be a better choice than voting for a "pragmatist".
184
It is challenging for me to respond to a pro-Sanders voter who will possibly vote for DT. My plea is to consider all is at stake. Pragmatism sounds like a bad word in your comment. But, it is how things get done and almost always has been the case. Think about what could happen with a united congress and presidency. And Hillary can make that happen. And please consider what it would be like to have a man like DT in the Oval Office.
11
Have you actually listened to what Trump is saying. How is building a wall in Mexico, deporting 11 million aliens, stopping Muslims from coming into this country, tariffs on imports, etc., going to make the future for our children any better? Putting Sanders in the same league as Trump is a disservice to Sanders.
7
How incredibly childish. "My candidate didn't win, so I'm going to vote for the one that least represents my values and interests."
8
Eight years of non-stop ignorant ranting from the right and now we are "shocked shocked!" that a monster like Trump is two steps away from the White House.
I hope the Republic can survive this test.
I hope the Republic can survive this test.
10
Speak for yourself. I saw this coming over a year ago.
13
Cohn, you're umpteen millionth pundit to beat his breast about how wrong you were about Trump. It's getting old. We don't care anymore. The only thing that would make a difference is if you and your ilk would stop pretending to be people who are anything other than marginally better informed than the average reader and love nothing more than the sound of your own voices.
50
No really, it does appear that Nate is boasting about being wrong.
It's what the pundits on cable news were doing most of the night last night.
Think about it.
News hacks bragging about being wrong.
It's what the pundits on cable news were doing most of the night last night.
Think about it.
News hacks bragging about being wrong.
8
"How could someone as smart as ME ever been so badly fooled??"
6
Trump won because of who is the Republican party base. It's like what nearly killed the economy; all the Wall Street scheming was based on poor people paying their mortgages, while their financial health could be ignored. It was assumed the base would not act in unison. When that base uniformly defaulted, the whole scheme failed and people wrote pathetic articles like yours.
7
I believe all of the points that Mr. Cohn describes are correct in how we all underestimated Trumps success at the polls, but I believe there's another key point that Mr. Cohn didn't mention and that is a disturbing section of the population that seems to enjoy the hateful discrimination coming from many if not all of Trump's public gatherings. The us and them mentality that is reminiscent of Hitler's rise to power, the blaming of someone else or some other group of people for your personal misfortunes. This section of of population while hopefully in the minority is still disturbing to see that now they have a Presidential candidate that unlike George Wallace has a genuine chance of winning the Presidency.
6
It's not what you got wrong about Trump, or Bernie Sanders. It's what you don't know about the anger and outrage of everyday Americans struggling to make ends meet. Millions of Republicans and Democrats have voted against the wishes of their party elites. You would do well to become better acquainted with the American voters who will back Trump in November and will back Bernie through California's primary.
99
It makes perfect sense that Trump is the nominee, he is a bully--and bully politics is the Republican calling card in the 21st century, he consistently tells lies that everyone knows are lies, but are lies they love to hear and want to believe. He is a colorful character so the media eats it up, he is fascinating to watch and so the endless coverage. Of course his biggest bit of luck is that there was not one able candidate running against him--Rubio couldn't even win his home state because he is so very unappealing. The Republicans as the party of no governing, the party of the rich and anti-inclusion and anti-femimism has their perfect candidate and I think that no one actually knows what will happen next, I hope the media will get serious and actually stop the circus--but somehow I think they will do more of the same and so when Trump Swift Boats Hillary they will echo the charges and the charges will stick and we will end up with President Trump--the hatred of women might even be stronger than racism in this country and I think these Trump people want someone running against Hillary who will take the gloves off and pummel her and win or lose they will enjoy the fight.
5
A weak field of opposing candidates, all with major flaws, has helped Trump.
5
That plus a (nearly) winner-take-all primary.
Eddie Murphy does a great bit in his "Delirious" comedy special about Jesse Jackson waking up the morning after an election, shocked to discover that he actually won. Despite all of his bluster, I can't help but think that Trump is himself pretty surprised that things worked out this way. Even he can't honestly have believed it was possible at the outset.
2
With all due respect, I think you are missing the point. So have most other columnists and pundits, so don't feel too bad.
The issue is not so much how you underestimated Donald Trump, but how the real (not imaginary) problems of the rest of us non-elites have been underestimated and mostly ignored, except when they can be used to manipulate voters. The media bears part of the blame in this, as far as you choose what to report on and how to report it.
Every time I read "people feel like they aren't getting ahead", I want to scream "It's because we aren't!"
The issue is not so much how you underestimated Donald Trump, but how the real (not imaginary) problems of the rest of us non-elites have been underestimated and mostly ignored, except when they can be used to manipulate voters. The media bears part of the blame in this, as far as you choose what to report on and how to report it.
Every time I read "people feel like they aren't getting ahead", I want to scream "It's because we aren't!"
864
Amen Jay, Amen!
3
And isn't that the irony? All his life guys like Trump have thought of you and I as little people and losers. We're not really losers but we'll never be winners the way Trump thinks he is. But yet here he comes telling all the people that we're going to win, win, win. What's implicit in that is that we've been losing, losing, losing-we're losers IOW. But guess what? No coach that ever turned losers into winners did so with no game plan and mile high ego. Trump won't either. He has no plan. There won't be any rancor in Washington during a Trump administration--just a bunch of actual smart people whispering in his ear "uh, Mr. President, you can't do that, it's illegal." If you're non-elite, you're going to stay that way. That's how America really is. If you want to be rich in America, start out that way. IOW, have rich parents. "I just got a small one million dollar loan from my father." People that talk like that have no clue about your life or mine, and never will.
1
Why aren't we getting ahead? Lots of those guys in Silicon Valley are rolling in it and they started from nothing. Plenty didn't get to go to college. It's easy to blame other people. Sometimes, we have to look in the mirror, too. Are we missing out on opportunities that they seized on? I know I have a lot to think about, at least.
My only take away from this is that none of the pundits on NYT or the other media outlets have any real understanding of the election results. They are paid to have opinions and therefore create opinions of what happens after the fact and publish them for the public. If they are wrong there are no consequences. The public, however, in its quest for constant entertainment is all too happy to consume these "opinions."
Why do we need 5 opinion pieces in one paper, all of which are repetitive and likely incorrect, about how Trump won?
Why do we need 5 opinion pieces in one paper, all of which are repetitive and likely incorrect, about how Trump won?
10
Thank you. Their support of the Eastern Liberal Establishment shows that one still lives. The sheer vehemence of their attacks on Sen Sanders are part of the same parcel that made them oblivious to The Donald's appeal. They really don't know many real Americans, neither the Progressive's nor the cultural Right.
8
Bob,
The Cohn's of the media are like the Court of the eventually beheaded French Kings. They were all deaf and dumb to the lives of real people. Cohn's and the rest of the media's ignorance is best demonstrated in the notorious 47% gaff of Romney.
The press, Romney, and his audience then, never realized that what they missed is that Romney never realized he was disrespecting his, I REPEAT his supporters; the very people he was expecting to vote for him.
The Cohn's of the media are like the Court of the eventually beheaded French Kings. They were all deaf and dumb to the lives of real people. Cohn's and the rest of the media's ignorance is best demonstrated in the notorious 47% gaff of Romney.
The press, Romney, and his audience then, never realized that what they missed is that Romney never realized he was disrespecting his, I REPEAT his supporters; the very people he was expecting to vote for him.
3
Actually, no one has really attacked Mr. Sanders. No one in the Hillary campaign has talked about his ignorance of the reality of communism when he took Jane to Russia for a socialist honeymoon.
No one talks about his smear campaign against Hillary while he wines and dines with the Wall Street and Hollywood crowd. His friends are virtuous. Hers he calls obscene. Instead of cheering when corporations finally pay a progressive woman of many accomplishments what they pay every old white man for a speaking gig, he calls her bought. Doesn't call Sarandon bought when Hollywood's money men pay her to strip for a role. Only Hillary, private citizen and out of office during her speaking engagements, is wrong.
No one talks about his smear campaign against Hillary while he wines and dines with the Wall Street and Hollywood crowd. His friends are virtuous. Hers he calls obscene. Instead of cheering when corporations finally pay a progressive woman of many accomplishments what they pay every old white man for a speaking gig, he calls her bought. Doesn't call Sarandon bought when Hollywood's money men pay her to strip for a role. Only Hillary, private citizen and out of office during her speaking engagements, is wrong.
No Mr. Cohn, you did not underestimate Mr. Trump, you underestimated the American people's desire for true change. It's clear that you haven't learned anything from the election so far.
20
Never underestimate the stupidity of Americans...
4
After 7.5 years of Barack Obama, you're totally correct.
7
The NYT has been wrong about most aspects of the Republican and Democratic races. Worst of all in endorsing Clinton early in the primary season and then favoring her in reporting as well as in editorials.
95
You left out the Citizens United decision. The huge field of candidates was buoyed along long past their sell-by dates because they each had their own special billionaire backing them, when in previous races they would have run out of money and support and dropped out far earlier. Call it unintended blow-back.
13
Trump won because he cannot be bought. We all know what we are going to get with HRC and there are many of us (well educated, upper middle class) who are just willing to take a chance and try something new and different, aka the Donald. At this point, what do we have to lose?
26
...our future stability as a democratic republic.
2
Donald can't be bought? Tell that to the people who lost money when his projects went belly-up and he walked away with money, they were unpaid for work and supplies. Does he care about you out in Nowhere Really? Well, when he sells shirts and ties under his brand at Macy's, they're made in China and Bangladesh. Does he even know the geography of the Middle East? Is his dead dad going to come up with an illegal transfer of funds when he mismanages the budget? LOL I don't think you can really be educated if you'd vote for a man who talks about his daughter as a sexual object, all women as a piece of a$$ to display on his arm, and won't let us see his tax returns. Get a grip.
1
It's so simple that it's strange that anti-Trump pundits cannot see it. People for the maybe first time in their lives have a candidate who says things straight as they are, without political maneuvering or political correctness. It's already almost enough to get him majority of votes. That it happens that most of his views are also right makes him unbeatable.
121
He doesn't say things straight. He says whatever he's thinking at the time.
He hasn't gotten a majority of votes; merely a plurality.
He's been right about half the time because he's been on both sides of an issue half the time.
He hasn't gotten a majority of votes; merely a plurality.
He's been right about half the time because he's been on both sides of an issue half the time.
2
Oh for Pete's sake, most of the time one cannot even tell what Trump's policies are.
You tell me, what are his policies on health care?
Or he says X and the proposes not X. He says he is for the working man, and then proposes a tax policy with more tax cuts for Rich which will only increase inequality.
Or yesterday he says Planned Parenthood does good work and today wants to withhold their funding.
He wants to stay out of the Middle East, but crush ISIS.
I would like to say that he says whatever pops into his minds, but there is no evidence of a connection between his mind and his mouth.
You tell me, what are his policies on health care?
Or he says X and the proposes not X. He says he is for the working man, and then proposes a tax policy with more tax cuts for Rich which will only increase inequality.
Or yesterday he says Planned Parenthood does good work and today wants to withhold their funding.
He wants to stay out of the Middle East, but crush ISIS.
I would like to say that he says whatever pops into his minds, but there is no evidence of a connection between his mind and his mouth.
3
"People for the maybe first time in their lives have a candidate who says things straight as they are".....Which is just great for the folks long as they don't know and don't care what the facts really are.
Nate says he's not a fan of pop culture and doesn't watch much television. Umm, just what does he do? Who was he listening to? Obviously not the voters. How could he possibly opine about the state of the race if he was not aware of how Trump was dominating the cable news channels? His blinders were as big as David Brooks's blinders -- I wish I had a nickel for every time Brooks solemnly assured us over the past year that Trump would not be the nominee. NYT, your political "experts" have let your readers down.
92
This is simply a demonstration of how unscientific electoral analysis is, and will always be. And yet, the pundits continue to get paid.
8
Here's a shocking idea: maybe the American people simply like Trump's policies and ideas. Maybe his simplistic view of how to fix so much of what has gone wrong in American is what appeals to people. Maybe, just maybe, America should stop worrying about building up Iraq and Afghanistan, two worthless countries, and instead, fix itself up.
Is he "presidential" in style and delivery? Not necessarily but that's an easy problem to fix. His slogan, "Make America Great Again" really resonates with people. Sometimes the simplest answer to this "Trump phenomenon" is the most obvious one
Is he "presidential" in style and delivery? Not necessarily but that's an easy problem to fix. His slogan, "Make America Great Again" really resonates with people. Sometimes the simplest answer to this "Trump phenomenon" is the most obvious one
22
The cherry on top is that Trump isn't even a Republican. He's like Sanders, an independent running on a convenient ticket. This season the independence factor is a great attraction for both Trump and Sanders. Neither of them, as is the case for Clinton, can be described as a "machine" politician.
33
What some not all Trump supporters remind me of are present day African miners. Some are ready to learn how the latest computerized systems work.
Many are not.
Trump is playing to those who don't want to learn anything new.
Many are not.
Trump is playing to those who don't want to learn anything new.
1
Condescension from Canada. Just what we need. There is enough of it here in the US! Thanks.
6
Well, maybe if our leaders had enforced say, immigration laws for the last 30 years or so, DT's message wouldn't have the appeal it does? Just a thought, I know you don't have any such worries in Canada b/c your immigration laws are actually enforced.
3
Looking the Repblican field over, as little as I think of Trump, the best man* won.
* of the bunch
* of the bunch
3
It's all down to the free media, who normalized Trump by their complete avoidance of the actual issues, making it all about the horse race.
What a tragedy.
My prediction: Trump's going to implode and the party is going to have to take the nomination away from him.
What a tragedy.
My prediction: Trump's going to implode and the party is going to have to take the nomination away from him.
5
Lot's of theories here but only one is the principal component. As you said, "These are voters who showed a surprising tolerance for Mr. Trump’s extreme comments on immigration, women and other issues." Trump, like many others, understood that these sentiments were there, smoldering. He was just shameless enough and rich enough to stoke the flames without reprisal, and for that, he won.
241
Correct. real estate failure espoused hate and division and you have kinda been feeling that way and can't find a higher road or a better solution to your problem so you want a King to do it for you.
I hope we've learned not to trust polling any more
NYT Editor: Just remember, Donald Trump led the polls practically from the beginning.
NYT Editor: Just remember, Donald Trump led the polls practically from the beginning.
7
I think that the people who write articles and OpEd pieces for the NYTimes spend too much time in their tiny work/social circles. Over the past year, just in listening to peoples conversations on the train I ride, Sanders and Trump dominated. When I went for bike rides around the town I live in, the only lawn signs I saw were for these two very different candidates, but who speak to those of us who have been watching our country fall apart. It is easy to label Trump supporters as uneducated racists and Sanders supporters as idealistic dreamers, but that just shows that the media doesn’t get it. The majority in the middle know the system is broken and are looking for someone who speaks to them. Trump and Sanders have done that. I’ll expect your column in November talking about how did I underestimate President Elect Trump.
102
I'm astonished that you think that World War I and the Great Depression couldn't have been predicted.
World War I was the inevitable outcome of colonial powers fighting over the remains of the dying imperial power, the Ottoman Empire.
The Great Depression was the inevitable outcome of an unregulated capitalist system.
Capitalism and Imperialism--they haven't left us and thus, we still have wars (now mostly proxy wars) and we still have Depressions--only now they are mitigated by government interventions to keep people from overthrowing their rulers...no more 1917s.
And of course Donald Trump could have been predicted. When the global elite suck too much from the common people, people support a leader who claims he will revivify national strength.
World War I was the inevitable outcome of colonial powers fighting over the remains of the dying imperial power, the Ottoman Empire.
The Great Depression was the inevitable outcome of an unregulated capitalist system.
Capitalism and Imperialism--they haven't left us and thus, we still have wars (now mostly proxy wars) and we still have Depressions--only now they are mitigated by government interventions to keep people from overthrowing their rulers...no more 1917s.
And of course Donald Trump could have been predicted. When the global elite suck too much from the common people, people support a leader who claims he will revivify national strength.
9
Did anyone pick Obama over Clinton in early 2008?
5
We are fighting an asymmetric war against an enemy who claims the US is the devil itself, foul and evil in intent and action, gobbling up the world's resources and passing on its failures to ever higher demands on the third world. Trump simply confirms their beliefs, elected fair and square. Who will we blame now?
Nate. You missed it. the Trump phenomena was about one consideration and one consideration only: immigration.
Yes, the very same people who supported him because of his strident and outlandish accusations against Mexican immigrants were vocal about the loss manufacturing jobs, outsourcing, and other such considerations. But, make no mistake about it, immigration was the defining issue.
Only one third of the American labor force has a college degree and its become increasingly evident, at least to them, that their economic survival is threatened by a burgeoning labor force that was depressing wage rates for all most all non rent seeking occupations. Trump supporters responded to this by doing something they had never done before: vote in a presidential primary election.
So why wasn't this laden support evident say 10. 20. even 30 years ago as wage rates became increasingly disconnected from erstwhile gains in productivity? Well, this can be largely attributed to the growing use of political correctness & diversity rhetoric used by Hispanic and other growing population to push their agenda. It was a fight that neither the Republican nor Democratic party elite wanted, some might say, for good reason. Trump, however, did so and he did so in an outlandish divisive way. The overlooked working class voter finally had a voice in Washington and the rest is history.
Yes, the very same people who supported him because of his strident and outlandish accusations against Mexican immigrants were vocal about the loss manufacturing jobs, outsourcing, and other such considerations. But, make no mistake about it, immigration was the defining issue.
Only one third of the American labor force has a college degree and its become increasingly evident, at least to them, that their economic survival is threatened by a burgeoning labor force that was depressing wage rates for all most all non rent seeking occupations. Trump supporters responded to this by doing something they had never done before: vote in a presidential primary election.
So why wasn't this laden support evident say 10. 20. even 30 years ago as wage rates became increasingly disconnected from erstwhile gains in productivity? Well, this can be largely attributed to the growing use of political correctness & diversity rhetoric used by Hispanic and other growing population to push their agenda. It was a fight that neither the Republican nor Democratic party elite wanted, some might say, for good reason. Trump, however, did so and he did so in an outlandish divisive way. The overlooked working class voter finally had a voice in Washington and the rest is history.
8
Nate Cohen is still stuck inside the insider's bubble. The economy is not working for the overwhelming majority of us, and Trump has spoken to the resulting confused resentment of main street Republicans.
24
The economy is working just fine for Nate and for many of the contributors to these comments. That seems to be the great divide and its why they are clinging so tightly to Hillary now.
5
All this tactical analysis is generally correct, but this is ultimately a manifestation of the underlying issue. The Republican party was a confederacy of numerous distinct groups who all became increasingly dissatisfied with the policy agenda of the whole. You had the 1% who are interested only in corporate growth and tax issues, the social conservatives driven by religious doctrine, the xenophobes who blame everyone not like them, the tea party who hates anything government, and former Reagan democrats - moderates who prefer market based approaches to government policy. These groups all came to a head, and the candidates this year represented various pockets. In the end, the xenophobes and white blue collar voters were the largest group, and Trump won. But this was several years in the making, and it became clear the various factions were not going to place nice. Ultimately, the reality was that the Republican party did not really exist, and this is the result.
13
You missed the biggest reason why you missed it: You're rich. You've never been laid off. You've never had to worry about how you are going to pay bills. You never had to worry about cheaper labor taking your job. Your college loans are paid off.
The past few years have been a horror show for most American workers, but not all. And generally people in top media jobs who have a mouthpiece who should be talking about these things ALL THE TIME just don't get it. Because they are secure in their economic situation. They are respected in their jobs. They are not treated like throw-away people.
I don't know that the Donald is really the mouthpiece we need. I don't think even he truly gets what he's tapped into. But I'd say this electorate is like the mom who goes on strike because she's underappreciated. Some voters don't really care if the dishes don't get done or the laundry doesnt get folded. Maybe it's time for some other country to do the work for a change.
The past few years have been a horror show for most American workers, but not all. And generally people in top media jobs who have a mouthpiece who should be talking about these things ALL THE TIME just don't get it. Because they are secure in their economic situation. They are respected in their jobs. They are not treated like throw-away people.
I don't know that the Donald is really the mouthpiece we need. I don't think even he truly gets what he's tapped into. But I'd say this electorate is like the mom who goes on strike because she's underappreciated. Some voters don't really care if the dishes don't get done or the laundry doesnt get folded. Maybe it's time for some other country to do the work for a change.
623
After a long career I've been laid off 4 times in the last 8 years. I.e. Had my job outsourced - not to another country but to another state where they paid my replacement 60% less. I borrowed money to keep my kids in college. I've borrowed from my 401k to avoid losing my home. I'm not worried about laundry being folded or dishes being done. I AM worried about the family eating and the doctor bills being paid. No way am I voting for Trump as a way to send a message that I'm under appreciated. Under appreciated is not even in Trumps vocabulary - it is in Clinton's. Oh and a little research would tell you media jobs are not at all stable. I'm With Her enthusiastically.
6
I'm not rich--I'm definitely working class. I hear your concerns & share them. What I don't understand is why you think Republicans, & Trump in particular, care at all about what's going on for working class or blue collar Americans. Especially considering part of the complaint from Trump supporters is they're tired of being lied to by the Republican party insiders who run the show. Can you explain the appeal of the Republican party to someone like you? Is part of the issue that you & voters like you believe the Democratic party abandoned you first? Because Bernie Sanders seems much more likely to address the issues you raise than Trump.
Just interested to understand your perspective. :)
Just interested to understand your perspective. :)
2
Nate Cohn works for the NYT. If you think reporters and writers are rolling in it, you are just as out of touch with reality as anyone else you claim to be as such. I wouldn't be surprised if he lived in a tiny apartment and had a bunch of student debt. My wife used to work in a newsroom, and most reporters like this guy worked their butts off writing countless stories about blueberries in Maine for a chance to work in a bigger newsroom for 40k a year, if they're lucky. They're not the problem.
Those people you're talking about in the "media?" Those aren't journalists. They're a bunch of self-important air heads that only care about ratings. You can find them on every channel regardless of the political leanings. They'll say anything and never admit to being wrong. And they make more than you and I combined.
Those people you're talking about in the "media?" Those aren't journalists. They're a bunch of self-important air heads that only care about ratings. You can find them on every channel regardless of the political leanings. They'll say anything and never admit to being wrong. And they make more than you and I combined.
4
The problem was not underestimating Trump but overestimating Republican primary voters. On the issues of age, citizenship, and entertainment value Trump checks all the boxes. On the issues of qualifications, competence, sincerity, temperament, knowledge, and coherence it is doubtful there has been a worse candidate in US history. But this does not matter. For an electorate falsely pandered too and assembled for their anti-liberal anger, that the candidate is an unqualified buffoon is a feature rather than a bug. If your contempt for government is palpable who better to push for it's leadership than Trump.
9
Too bad it's a democracy!
3
Mr. Trump knows how to sell.
He is a master at reading his customers.
And he is brilliant at strategy and tactics. When it appeared uncommitted delegates were to be very important he put together a team to work them and developed and implemented a strategy for each of the likely possible circumstances going into the convention. And it appears that he was able to succeed the most advantageous circumstance, 1237 delegates. He was able, in case he failed to get to 1237, to build a wall against a brokered convention nominating someone else when he gets 1200 delegates on the first vote.
Lord knows what he really believes on social issues, the deficit, illegal aliens, tariffs, and war. He is probably closer to Hillary Clinton than to Ted Cruz.
I think he is brilliant, cunning, crafty, and intuitive. And, as Mr. Cohn points out, he was lucky.
He is a master at reading his customers.
And he is brilliant at strategy and tactics. When it appeared uncommitted delegates were to be very important he put together a team to work them and developed and implemented a strategy for each of the likely possible circumstances going into the convention. And it appears that he was able to succeed the most advantageous circumstance, 1237 delegates. He was able, in case he failed to get to 1237, to build a wall against a brokered convention nominating someone else when he gets 1200 delegates on the first vote.
Lord knows what he really believes on social issues, the deficit, illegal aliens, tariffs, and war. He is probably closer to Hillary Clinton than to Ted Cruz.
I think he is brilliant, cunning, crafty, and intuitive. And, as Mr. Cohn points out, he was lucky.
8
You didn't predict Bernie either - his strength is recognized by the people, the elites don't see it even today -
The truth is the main stream media are presstitutes so they have no choice but to come up with accepted dogma on all policy subjects.
The opinions on Putin are wrong as well for the same reasons
The truth is the main stream media are presstitutes so they have no choice but to come up with accepted dogma on all policy subjects.
The opinions on Putin are wrong as well for the same reasons
11
Don't worry, Nate. It's like you said before, when Biden announces, it'll really shake things up.
6
It has become obvious that America's Political Parties have turned the selection of the Chief Executive into a sort of free-for-all competition for the free donations of Big Money from wealthy Donors.
3
That would make sense if the "big money" actually had an impact on this result. Some would argue it had the reverse effect when the "stop Trump" movement gathered cash.
Funny, I phoned a friend the day he announced and said he would be the nominee. And then Watch Out. I also predict that if the Democrats are stupid enough to run Hillary against him... Trump will be president.
6
Nate,
Not only were you wrong about Trump's Success so far... You will be wrong about his chances in the General election, by claiming that he has an uphill battle against Hillary. this is the typical pundit wisdom based on all the incorrect factors. You're going down exactly the same road again.
The lessons you draw miss the central reason for Trumps success-his clear, direct message, which resonates with voters. He has comfort and confidence in his own skin. He has ample political skill- and that Voters have the Power ultimately. Democracy at work. He has toppled the special interests, the political Party elites-- he doesn't need them. All he needs is votes. Plus- he's free to change strategy now that he's presumptive nominee.
So you will probably be wrong in your Trump predictions going forward. Because I don't think you understand his fundamental strength.
Not only were you wrong about Trump's Success so far... You will be wrong about his chances in the General election, by claiming that he has an uphill battle against Hillary. this is the typical pundit wisdom based on all the incorrect factors. You're going down exactly the same road again.
The lessons you draw miss the central reason for Trumps success-his clear, direct message, which resonates with voters. He has comfort and confidence in his own skin. He has ample political skill- and that Voters have the Power ultimately. Democracy at work. He has toppled the special interests, the political Party elites-- he doesn't need them. All he needs is votes. Plus- he's free to change strategy now that he's presumptive nominee.
So you will probably be wrong in your Trump predictions going forward. Because I don't think you understand his fundamental strength.
67
Many people who discounted Trump also grabbed at the chance to demonize his supporters. (Thereby causing many who planned to vote for Trump to keep their mouths shut for fear of being called racists, ignorant, snake-handlers, mentally ill, fascists, uneducated, etc., etc.)
Glad you're man enough to admit you were wrong. I wonder if the trash-talking commenters will follow your example. The armchair psychologists were particularly awful.
Glad you're man enough to admit you were wrong. I wonder if the trash-talking commenters will follow your example. The armchair psychologists were particularly awful.
10
Thank you. Could not agree more that the comments are despicable.
4
Did the media give his candidacy an outsized amount of coverage?
16
On target cleverclue - few topics get more eyeballs than crazy and the 24 hr news machine parts climbed over one another to accomodate.
Trump is this country's Boaty McBoatface.
9
One more question to answer: why the 17 candidates field was so poor? Because the Republican party lacks a clear program/agenda. The only one they have is: repeat Reagan! And Reagan did so well that his program got exhausted with his mandate.
4
Dewey defeats Truman!
3
I am astonished that while virtually all of those posting here, to my mind correctly identify the significance of the Trump "phenomenon", i.e. popular distrust of elites and our "fix is in" political system, Mr. Cohn fails to mention it at all. Can he really be that dim? S what is the meaning of the Donald? It's pretty obvi: "Anyone but K Street, even a big, orange haired baboon!"
17
You didn't underestimate Trump. You underestimated the anger of the American people towards Wasingtons greed, pretend dysfunction for the cameras and contmpt they showed for said voters.
You folks keep thinking this is about Trump assuming that he would never get this far the last nail in the coffin was New York after California votes elites will finally realize they are in it.
You folks keep thinking this is about Trump assuming that he would never get this far the last nail in the coffin was New York after California votes elites will finally realize they are in it.
3
They are hanging on to Clinton like a life preserver.
3
When you play a part, large or small, in making life more difficult for those not born to wealth; a price will be exacted from you.
11
It looks like Trump has also forced the Democratic Party to become the party of free trade.
3
The Uni-parties are all for TTP (they call it free trade, but it is really unfair trade) that hurts the citizens they are supposed to represent.
3
You nailed it: the conservative elite failed to denounce Trump. What's missing is why, and that's cowardice. The appalling cowardice of the establishment Republican party prevented them from condemning this man as what he is (and when they did so, too little too late): a hateful, racist, and very dangerous demagogue.
292
If they did that they would have to condemn Ronald Reagan, George Bush, etc.
1
Wouldn't have worked. Trump supporters eat denouncing for breakfast, and it only makes him more likable in their eyes. No, you needed the media to not give him the countless hours of free publicity. Whereas other people had to pay for ads, all this guy had to do was open his mouth. Free ads. What a freeloader...
And if the Republican elite had condemned Trump, we would have simply listened to them and did what they expected of us? Why?
The elites do not matter. Their opinion does not matter. We will vote for who we as individuals see fit, and if that is Trump, so be it.
The elites do not matter. Their opinion does not matter. We will vote for who we as individuals see fit, and if that is Trump, so be it.
2
You didn't get anything wrong about Donald Trump.
What you didn't get right was that so many Americans are just like him: opinionated without bothering about the facts.
What you didn't get right was that so many Americans are just like him: opinionated without bothering about the facts.
77
Alright! what a wonderful idea!
Let's disparage the voters...
Very constructive!
Let's disparage the voters...
Very constructive!
3
For years we have been asking the question, "Why does the mass of Republican voters continue to vote against their own self interest?"
I think we have the answer now: they just figured it out.
I think we have the answer now: they just figured it out.
17
The GOP has been leading the way for 30+ years on hate for minorities, hate for women, hate for liberals, hate for education, and hate for government. Why are you surprised that their party members have chosen a representative who openly represents these previously (not-so) closeted values?
26
Absolutely, positively, do not rule this guy out. There were a million comments he made that should have knocked him out, but didn't. Democrats, no matter their candidate, need to get out the vote this November. I never thought I'd see Trump be the nominee, but now he is, and there's a good possibility he could be president. Do not be complacent!!
6
None are so blind as those who will not see.
Maybe, just maybe, it is because the reality is there are a lot of people in the nation who actually believe the PC movement is stifling and contrary to their values. Maybe more people than you care to admit have values that are more common than you care to admit, whether you agree with them or not.
You can pretend those values don't exist, but ultimately it's at your own peril.
Maybe, just maybe, it is because the reality is there are a lot of people in the nation who actually believe the PC movement is stifling and contrary to their values. Maybe more people than you care to admit have values that are more common than you care to admit, whether you agree with them or not.
You can pretend those values don't exist, but ultimately it's at your own peril.
4
Last summer I had a "friend" of more than 50years say I must be a racist because I said that Obama could have done a better job of implementing the ACA. It's exhausting.
5
Dear Journalist,
After reading this article, I see that you still don't understand why Trump won. I have been an unwavering Trump supporter since the beginning.
You mention his backers had "tolerance" for him, let me correct you sir, we had "tolerance" for people like you, people like Rubio, Bush, Obama, Hillary, Sanders, the media, and other people who call us racists, bigots, xenophobic, and etc.
Altho you did a decent, detailed analysis, not all but much of it was wrong. To you and all the others I would say Nice Try, but you still do not really understand what one would call the Trump phenomenon, In some ways, I think maybe his unwavering supporters will be the only ones to ever know why & how Trump won, why we chose him, and why this is just the beginning...
After reading this article, I see that you still don't understand why Trump won. I have been an unwavering Trump supporter since the beginning.
You mention his backers had "tolerance" for him, let me correct you sir, we had "tolerance" for people like you, people like Rubio, Bush, Obama, Hillary, Sanders, the media, and other people who call us racists, bigots, xenophobic, and etc.
Altho you did a decent, detailed analysis, not all but much of it was wrong. To you and all the others I would say Nice Try, but you still do not really understand what one would call the Trump phenomenon, In some ways, I think maybe his unwavering supporters will be the only ones to ever know why & how Trump won, why we chose him, and why this is just the beginning...
6
The Upshot and 538 have missed the mark so many times in their predictions. 538 gave Bernie a 10% chance of carrying Indiana and predicted from the polls he would get about 43% of the vote. You thought Trump would never be nominated and Bernie would not do nearly as well as he has done.
But the beauty of it for you is there is no downside to being wrong and lots of rationalizations (statistically driven I am sure) justifying the errors.
I would like to see more money spent on real investigative reporting of what is really going on and less on prognostications that are meaningless. So what if you are right, or you are wrong. None of it matters because the voters ultimately decide.
But the beauty of it for you is there is no downside to being wrong and lots of rationalizations (statistically driven I am sure) justifying the errors.
I would like to see more money spent on real investigative reporting of what is really going on and less on prognostications that are meaningless. So what if you are right, or you are wrong. None of it matters because the voters ultimately decide.
40
Despite or because of sophisticated modeling tools and analytics, US news missed Trump. Same problem with our essential services of healthcare, education, banking. Lots of analysts and administrators following the issues, not working the issues. Look forward to NYT's excellent writing if they can solve the massive disconnect between NY-Wash bubble vs rest of the US.
7
We all crave certainty, but in many fields such as economics or predicting elections, it is very elusive because it is not possible.
The reason its not possible is because each economic or political cycle has its own unique DNA. Its NEVER the same because of the different players, the political climate, the election dates---the list is endless. For example how could anyone predict the impact of 17 candidates vying for the nomination. Was there some sort of tested logic the political whizzes could rely upon?
The hard truth is that we can't understand an event until we do a post mortem and even then we won't have perfect answers but at least answers that can supported with data, some logic and well thought out analysis.
The one factor that Mr Cohn did not really touch upon was the extensive use of new ways people get and use information. The process is radically different than even 4 years ago. The connectivity of all players, decision makers, pundits, voters creates data absorption and its influence that is totally unprecedented.
The take away is that it is imperative to ACCEPT that we really don't know and can't know a lot of things we want to be certain about. Everyone wants instant analysis but how many times have you hard the 'experts' say 'I don't know'. We expect instant and profound insight. Give it a rest!
Regardless of one's political leanings, we now must expect the unexpected between Clinton and Trump. So, buckle up. Its going to be a bumpy ride.
The reason its not possible is because each economic or political cycle has its own unique DNA. Its NEVER the same because of the different players, the political climate, the election dates---the list is endless. For example how could anyone predict the impact of 17 candidates vying for the nomination. Was there some sort of tested logic the political whizzes could rely upon?
The hard truth is that we can't understand an event until we do a post mortem and even then we won't have perfect answers but at least answers that can supported with data, some logic and well thought out analysis.
The one factor that Mr Cohn did not really touch upon was the extensive use of new ways people get and use information. The process is radically different than even 4 years ago. The connectivity of all players, decision makers, pundits, voters creates data absorption and its influence that is totally unprecedented.
The take away is that it is imperative to ACCEPT that we really don't know and can't know a lot of things we want to be certain about. Everyone wants instant analysis but how many times have you hard the 'experts' say 'I don't know'. We expect instant and profound insight. Give it a rest!
Regardless of one's political leanings, we now must expect the unexpected between Clinton and Trump. So, buckle up. Its going to be a bumpy ride.
57
This is an extensive and thorough analysis of why most pundits (not just Nate Cohn) underestimated Trump's chances.
Among all the reasons one that stands out, at least in my mind, is the shrinking middle class and the growing income/wealth divide in our country right now. There was a time, just after WWII or so, when many Americans started to move up in life with an economic expansion resulting from technological innovations and a robust manufacturing economy. All of that slowed down as the world morphed into one giant community with the elimination of the First, Second and Third worlds and the onset of globalization. These past 25+ years have been hard on the lower and uneducated class of Americans who saw jobs leaving our country even as people in China and India saw an economic expansion.
Most would agree with my review thus far, although disagreements may begin now onward. American in the lower and uneducated class tended to support the Republican party although the party's policies post Reagan were never really in this group's favor. And now Donald Trump has exposed that yawning gap resulting in his massive support. Most of the racist and xenophobic tendencies only reflect a deeper economic malaise.
Whoever is the next President will have to invest in our country's science & technology and infrastructure - these seem the most obvious ways to reinvigorate our economy.
Among all the reasons one that stands out, at least in my mind, is the shrinking middle class and the growing income/wealth divide in our country right now. There was a time, just after WWII or so, when many Americans started to move up in life with an economic expansion resulting from technological innovations and a robust manufacturing economy. All of that slowed down as the world morphed into one giant community with the elimination of the First, Second and Third worlds and the onset of globalization. These past 25+ years have been hard on the lower and uneducated class of Americans who saw jobs leaving our country even as people in China and India saw an economic expansion.
Most would agree with my review thus far, although disagreements may begin now onward. American in the lower and uneducated class tended to support the Republican party although the party's policies post Reagan were never really in this group's favor. And now Donald Trump has exposed that yawning gap resulting in his massive support. Most of the racist and xenophobic tendencies only reflect a deeper economic malaise.
Whoever is the next President will have to invest in our country's science & technology and infrastructure - these seem the most obvious ways to reinvigorate our economy.
3
People are always interested in accidents and frankly Trump is an accident of history. He has no business in the political arena and the mere possibility that he will sit in the same seat as Lincoln or FDR is an insult.
Your point about the media is spot on. They created Trump and their failure to focus in on his obvious defects can only be attributable to Trumps entertainment and ratings value.
Your point about the media is spot on. They created Trump and their failure to focus in on his obvious defects can only be attributable to Trumps entertainment and ratings value.
3
It took a lot to go Trump's way - yes, that he could win with pluralities reflecting such a small portion of the party members.
But most importantly, what went Trump's way was the overwhelming amount of almost unrelentingly fawning media coverage he got, simply because he generated ratings for the networks, and readers for the newspapers.
If the old "equal time" and "fairness doctrine" rules (killed under Reagan) were put back in place, the public would have heard as much from Kasich and other serious candidates, and would have ignored the silly real estate buffoon.
But most importantly, what went Trump's way was the overwhelming amount of almost unrelentingly fawning media coverage he got, simply because he generated ratings for the networks, and readers for the newspapers.
If the old "equal time" and "fairness doctrine" rules (killed under Reagan) were put back in place, the public would have heard as much from Kasich and other serious candidates, and would have ignored the silly real estate buffoon.
6
All those kids in CA campaigning for him pushed him over the top in IA. Yeah, they THOUGHT they were protesting him, but those riots really helped him in the end, and they will push him right into the whitehouse if they continue those SJW tactics.
5
Well written, trenchant, and correct.
Trump won because the other runners were far more odious, pusillanimous, and idiotic than him - remarkable as that might be.
The contest between him (who I don't like) and HC (who I don't like) is going to be nasty, mean, but good theater.
Trump won because the other runners were far more odious, pusillanimous, and idiotic than him - remarkable as that might be.
The contest between him (who I don't like) and HC (who I don't like) is going to be nasty, mean, but good theater.
2
The media has been so insulated that it only heard itself and not the American public. We in the Middle Class have been bleeding for years now with jobs shifted overseas which benefited the Corporations but killed the incomes of average people. And when the Middle Class can't buy goods, then the economy goes sideways. And, just in time, the economic downturn will cost Clinton the election.
9
Even if the GOP had mounted organized opposition early (after McCain comments), their messaging would still be reliant on a media that has always given Trump the lion's share of their air time. Trump knows how to tap into disaffection, which has remarkably overriden every offensive remark he has made to this point. That is an incredible feat in itself.
3
First it depends how you define "outsider" - outsider to politics maybe, but not necessarily to the public at large? in that sense Trump was no outsider - his name recognition and persona from reality TV with a pan-business/media/real-world coverage made his slide into the political arena an easy one. With social connectedness of today this may increasingly be the formula for running a national campaign - that is building one's base in disciplines unrelated to politics long before announcing one's candidacy - Jon Stewart (in his heyday) even Lin-Manuel Miranda (good guy!) could both cash in if they wanted to, and theyd be good for the country, unlike the Donald!
5
Like Mr. Cohn, I don't keep up with pop culture, and I don't watch a lot of television. However, I do live in California, and watched the MSM treat Arnold Schwarzenegger's campaign as a big joke--and he was elected in a landslide, during a recall. Arnold had a few good ideas, but he also made many mistakes, and his personal life was ridiculous. His celebrity status saved him, though. I have followed the decay of the Republican Party for years, and once Jeb was out of the way, the Donald's success did not surprise me. One thing this primary season is proven is that pundits don't know anything. They need to work on a small-town campaign and walk some precincts. They might have a better insight.
36
I am a Democrat and will vote for Hillary. Nevertheless I feel sad and angry at the Republican Party for relinquishing being a meaningful political party. It is frightening what they have wrought in Trump, never mind other self-serving ideologues or just shallow self-serving politicians who were candidates in this race. Why can't the Republican party promote politicians who have stellar track records and true passion for public service?
343
I'm a Democrat, too, and I will also vote for Hilary in November, but maybe a little more reluctantly than you will. I totally agree with what you say about the Republican Party, but I think you're letting the Democrats off the hook too easily. There are legitimate reasons why Bernie has resonated so enthusiastically with voters. I'm glad Bernie has been able to move Hilary to the left and I hope she will stay there so Democrats can reclaim their own proud heritage.
3
Actually I am thrilled that Bernie has moved the Hillary and the Democratic party to the left - totally agree with you on that. I just hope the younger generation is motivated for a sustained effort to bring about many of Bernie's objectives, as it will take a sustained effort. Both Bernie and Hillary devoted themselves to public service in their own ways, and it is hard to recognize any devotion to public service in the likes of Trump, Cruz, McConnell, Christie, etc. That is what is (one of many things) so disheartening about the Republican Party of today.
2
Because their base settles for cheap flash, "dog whistle" racism, homophobia, and misogyny, and is lazy and ill-educated--and proud of it!
Trump won because millions of Americans are mad as hell at politicians who are beholden to some billionaire. They want to cut-out the middleman and elect the billionaire himself.
Brilliant.
Brilliant.
32
No, no, no - what you got wrong was underestimating the inherent racism, bigotry and general simplemindedness of much of the American people.
17
yes, and NOBODY ever calls them out on it. only Obama when he made the "guns, gays and god" comment and even he had to retreat from it.
the entire country is held hostage by them, or maybe half the country as they seems to be a sizable proportion.
the entire country is held hostage by them, or maybe half the country as they seems to be a sizable proportion.
Nate Cohn. Don't have to confess what we all got wrong about Trump. If you asked me, a fiercely independent minded person 8 months ago I would have said Trump is a joke and will never become the president of USA. Times have changed and the tables have turned and I would not be at all surprised if Donald J Trump is elected the next president of USA. Is that the best we can do? Que sera sera. What ever will be will be. A bright future may not be ours to see but to hope for.
2
No, you're off the hook, Nate. That Citizen Trump could libel Sen. Cruz' father by accusing him of being Lee Harvey Oswald's friend and a co-conspirator in the Kennedy Assassination and not be flattened and flayed alive for it by the news media and (presumably sentient) public says more about the actual situation than anything else I can think of.
Trump is The Flim-Flam Man; a bag of foul gas; a figment of his imagination. Broadcast media businesses prostituted themselves with him to inflate their audience shares. What did Trump get in return? The power to launch nothing less than a coup d'état
Lenin predicted Capitalists would gleefully sell him the rope he would use to hang them. Broadcast media has done that very thing with Citizen Trump. He will say or do anything to seize political power.
Want to thwart his drive to get his crooked fingers on America's nuclear arsenal? Ignore him. "Ly'in Ted" is actually "Ly'in Donald", so stop repeating his lies. And stop covering him and his live events; even now. Deny him legitimacy. "Starve the Beast", like Grover Norquist's anti-government fanatics say. A voluntary news media blackout on him and his campaign be he the Republican nominee or not would cut his air hose.
"That's unfair!", he will protest. Good! As President Kennedy observed a few months before his murder, "life isn't fair".
The Romans cursed defeated political opponents by expelling them, but not before telling them, "Go get yourself buried". Trump deserves it.
Trump is The Flim-Flam Man; a bag of foul gas; a figment of his imagination. Broadcast media businesses prostituted themselves with him to inflate their audience shares. What did Trump get in return? The power to launch nothing less than a coup d'état
Lenin predicted Capitalists would gleefully sell him the rope he would use to hang them. Broadcast media has done that very thing with Citizen Trump. He will say or do anything to seize political power.
Want to thwart his drive to get his crooked fingers on America's nuclear arsenal? Ignore him. "Ly'in Ted" is actually "Ly'in Donald", so stop repeating his lies. And stop covering him and his live events; even now. Deny him legitimacy. "Starve the Beast", like Grover Norquist's anti-government fanatics say. A voluntary news media blackout on him and his campaign be he the Republican nominee or not would cut his air hose.
"That's unfair!", he will protest. Good! As President Kennedy observed a few months before his murder, "life isn't fair".
The Romans cursed defeated political opponents by expelling them, but not before telling them, "Go get yourself buried". Trump deserves it.
5
The main reason why you got it wrong because you failed to read the history of mankind over centuries. When bad times arrive to a nation or a region due to strife or famine ( bad economy) the first causality was secularism. This led to acrid rhetoric especially against minorities - Jews, Muslims, Protestants etc. Both help galvanize a leader into power by establishing scapegoats but not solutions- some of them were dictators and worse but not all. Some were actually elected by people and we do not need to go too far back to find one - Former Yugoslavian countries, Modi in India etc. Our country with growing unease between the ultra rich and everyone else, a stagnant middle class, growing entitlement programs, globalization of economy leading to outsourcing of jobs and the lack of pride in "Made In USA" all created a perfect setting for someone like Trump. Since none of these will change in the next several months Trump may well be our President.
2
People want what neither Party, for decades, has delivered or intends to deliver. We want tomatoes that taste like tomatoes and steak that we can chew. And, we want enough money to pay for them and live a reasonably decent life. We want words to mean what they are supposed to mean; like illegal should mean illegal. If somethings illegal, than there should be consequences. We believe in the old adage that it’s the customer who is paramount; not some obscure “share holder”. We want our citizenship, our borders, our flag and patriotism to have meaning again. We don’t gave a damn about corporate profit or globalization. We want to go to our jobs, make a living, and come home to our families. Our lives are every bit as important and should be valued more than any CEO or politician. And, if you think I don’t understand how the system works, I’ll tell you that it’s you who has forgotten how the system is supposed to work
768
I appreciate what you say and agree about corporate greed getting out of hand as well as the political landscape thanks to citizen's united. BUT the world, economies, culture, technology, nothing is static. everyone, everywhere needs to be mobile and flexible with the forward progress of time.
people like yourself want the utopia of the 50's while forgetting a whole lot of others (african americans, LGBTs) were not participating in that utopia. they have had to make do with far less for centuries. now it is your turn and you are wanting to find reasons why the world has failed you and a messiah to take you back.
I am sorry, but that is not going to happen, even when Trump is president.
people like yourself want the utopia of the 50's while forgetting a whole lot of others (african americans, LGBTs) were not participating in that utopia. they have had to make do with far less for centuries. now it is your turn and you are wanting to find reasons why the world has failed you and a messiah to take you back.
I am sorry, but that is not going to happen, even when Trump is president.
3
You mean you want Bernie Sanders?
3
Wow, that's a perfectly written reply. No do you think Trump can do those things or is it armageddon?
1
Another day, another NYT article about Trump.
2
What Trump has managed is to leverage his reality-TV celebrity status into free 24/7 coverage by Fox, MSNBC, CNN and the press - politics as entertainment. He was by far the most colorful, enraging and entertaining candidate.
1
Trump won because non of the other Republican choices were worth voting for. Had Trump run against Bloomberg, it would have been a different story.
Hard to believe that Trump could win against any Male authority figure.
I think this whole period in time is only the run-up to the actual election.
I think this whole period in time is only the run-up to the actual election.
This gratuitous Monday morning quarterbacking session misses several key points, and it seems the writer will be opining similar drivel when the bigger black swan hits in November.
1. Trumps talking points on foreign and trade policy resonated with the working and middle classes, who have seen their real incomes and purchasing power continuously dwindle over the past few decades. Bush dynasty and Clintons come November can never regain the trust of this class.
2. The standard media attacks like "Racist, Bigot, Misogynst Booo!!!" Have lost their bite, because in this micro-aggression/safe zone era, regular people no longer take such victim hood industry seriously.
3. The media darling Rubio was astonishingly flaky underweight, who couldn't even convince his own state.
1. Trumps talking points on foreign and trade policy resonated with the working and middle classes, who have seen their real incomes and purchasing power continuously dwindle over the past few decades. Bush dynasty and Clintons come November can never regain the trust of this class.
2. The standard media attacks like "Racist, Bigot, Misogynst Booo!!!" Have lost their bite, because in this micro-aggression/safe zone era, regular people no longer take such victim hood industry seriously.
3. The media darling Rubio was astonishingly flaky underweight, who couldn't even convince his own state.
9
Republican elites always relied on racist dog whistles to appease the base and Mr. Trump decided to instead use a megaphone. Of course that would be more appealing to the xenophobic masses!
327
Can someone explain why inner cities, which are 100% controlled by democratic leaders are more segregated than smaller towns? I stay in the DC area. Washington DC, Baltimore, MD are so very much segregated than say, Essex, MD or even Anne Arundel county. I thought democrats were suppose to be the non-racist party. Also, DC government has plans to build a homeless shelter in each of the city's Wards. Oh no! say the folks in the Chevy Chase, DC area and those in the Georgetown area. They're all democrats though...
3
Because to the Democratic elites, green is the main issue, so they are complacent in areas like NYC and Boston where massively inflated real estate prices (driven up by wealthy foreigners who use these properties to stash their ill-gotten gains) have made areas unaffordable for the un-subsidized working and middle classes.
They then pander to the ever-increasing poor populations in those cities (including illegal immigrants) by posturing about some easy social issues, etc. but simultaneously don't offer any economic solutions which would involve hard work and difficult decisions - like how it's kind of counterintuitive for a sanctuary city like San Francisco to attract large numbers of unskilled foreign nationals living in the U.S. in violation of immigration laws while being prohibitively expensive for even educated and employed U.S. ctiizens.
They then pander to the ever-increasing poor populations in those cities (including illegal immigrants) by posturing about some easy social issues, etc. but simultaneously don't offer any economic solutions which would involve hard work and difficult decisions - like how it's kind of counterintuitive for a sanctuary city like San Francisco to attract large numbers of unskilled foreign nationals living in the U.S. in violation of immigration laws while being prohibitively expensive for even educated and employed U.S. ctiizens.
2
I was absolutely stunned when I traveled to DC for a work related business and saw the level of segregation, not just in neighborhoods but, in jobs.
1
What every Republican got wrong about Donald Trump:
You should have all banned together against Donald Trump when he was disrespectful and critical toward John McCain. That was the time to nip The Donald in the bud. You were more interested in ignoring the disrespect and allowing his bullying to get totally out of hand than standing up for your public servant, John McCain. For shame.
What playground bully could have sustained a whole party, a whole slew of presidential candidates at their public debate podiums, a media who could have had the power to rise above bullyism in defense of John McCain?
Big, big, mistake. John McCain did not deserve the turning of backs to him, and this country does not deserve a presidential nominee, Donald Trump.
The Republicans and previous others mentioned decided to be sissies, and look what we get.
You should have all banned together against Donald Trump when he was disrespectful and critical toward John McCain. That was the time to nip The Donald in the bud. You were more interested in ignoring the disrespect and allowing his bullying to get totally out of hand than standing up for your public servant, John McCain. For shame.
What playground bully could have sustained a whole party, a whole slew of presidential candidates at their public debate podiums, a media who could have had the power to rise above bullyism in defense of John McCain?
Big, big, mistake. John McCain did not deserve the turning of backs to him, and this country does not deserve a presidential nominee, Donald Trump.
The Republicans and previous others mentioned decided to be sissies, and look what we get.
4
nor did John Kerry but it was allowed. If the media companies who own conservative talk radio and T.V. silenced these lies...the public eats it up and the money flows in so get ready for more of the same.
While I honor anyone's service in the military, McCain has some personal integrity problems with how he treated his first wife. Ross Perot ended up paying for her medical bills. I used to be able to find articles on her on UK news sites. Somehow, in the U.S. this story was hard to find.
Another reason not to trust mainstream media.
Another reason not to trust mainstream media.
1
OK, so do you fall on your sword? No, you keep the predictions coming. And we drink the Kool Aid and keep on reading. Why do we love predicting the future so much when we're so bad at it?
1
It's so strange that the writer attributes Trump's success to everything except the obvious: good policy. Trump says no more immigrants until all citizens have jobs, no more trade deals that shut American factories, no more nation-building in countries that hate us, and no more free rides for "allies" who are eating our lunch. These are common sense proposals that appeal to the common man.
31
Unless you are a Native American, you would not be living here if there was a no immigrant policy. I'm all for creating good paying jobs with benefits (Trump is against a higher minimum wage), but keeping out all immigrants is not going to accomplish that.
Maybe building that Wall will be a job creator. Who cares about filling all of the potholes I drive over daily that are ruining my car.
Maybe building that Wall will be a job creator. Who cares about filling all of the potholes I drive over daily that are ruining my car.
2
So, will you call on Trump to bring back his own clothing line from foreign countries? Trade deals are made by U.S. businesses so they can pay lower wages; will you call on them to stay here and will you then agree to stop shopping at discount stores and Walmart and buy only American-made products, which will cost you more? Very little Trump has proposed is good policy and much he says is so anti the values we have prided ourselves on. He is a bully, incredibly full of himself, and quite ignorant.
1
Good policy requires more than just mouthing slogans; it requires good ideas behind them. The idea that we are just going to uproot and expel 11 million illegal aliens is ludicrous and the damage to the economy if we did would be considerable. He says he's against nation-building but has spoken about creating a "big, beautiful safe zone" in Syria and wiping out ISIS; how does h e propose to do that without upping U.S. military presence; he has mouthed off about trade deals but hasn't actually proposed anything except beginning a tariff war.
1
Trump, if nothing else, recognizes an opportunity along with a bit of impeccable timing. He saw a fractured party, used the essence of incendiary right wing talking points while ignoring specifics plus a healthy dose of ad hominem bombast while exploiting middle class angst to outlast the competition.
What could go wrong?
What could go wrong?
158
Like the media, you sound as if the droves of people who came out to vote for Trump are idiots and know-nothings, who only like incendiary right wing talking points. That's grand-standing of you. In any case, let's assume it was all about the incendiary talking points. The question is: Are we in a republic or not? are we in a democracy or not? If a majority of the people want something who is the other person to deny them? or why should the minority deny them?
3
Nah, I don't think he was near so astute. He saw a chance to show off and had no idea he would be where he is today. Actually he's an accident that's turning into a train wreck. Welcome aboard.
You got less wrong about Donald trump and much much more wrong about the Republican electorate than you still realize. It is human nature and very short sighted to view Republicans the way that left of center Democrats tend to believe. As a group, liberals tend to view Republicans as "haters", or "tea party" personnel while nothing could be further from the truth. The majority are quite practical and moderate, but their voice is truly the "silent majority" for too many years. This was an internal Republican revolution countering that very notion and tearing down first the Party establishment but also the idea that all Republicans march in lock step with the very most conservative (as defined by the liberal left) principles. The Republican voters have sent a very strong message, much stronger than that of Mr. Trump. Bernie Sanders folks are doing the same. Look deeply and you will see that Republicans have voted for action over extremism. A practical successful man over a far far right ideological political man who would continue and worsen gridlock, if that were possible. This was grassroots heavy lifting, this is democracy.
20
Why not just admit it: your personal bias and the bias of your peers made Trump's victory an inconceivable event, and you discounted the possibility of a Trump victory at every turn until today.
14
Mr Cohn like many in the "media" missed Trump's rise because they sit in their little cublicles or home offices and never get out to see the country. It didn't take a genius to see how the things Trump said from the beginning about illegal immigration, protecting our borders, concentrating on keeping America productive and business here, avoiding bad trade deals....basically taking a stance against all the globalist ideas Clinton, then Bush, then Obama have been pushing..not to mention using race and gender to divide the country internally. Really this all common sense that anyone who still believes our country still stands for something no other country does (Mr Cohn you should travel to some other countries like Egypt) is going to take seriously. Trump is a force of nature he may not sound like you want him to, act like you expect...but that's the way it is.
16
I don't think Nate Cohn was wrong about Trump; but he and I were both wrong about the credulity of the American people. My view of the American primary voter was bleak, but--against all evidence--I clung to the belief in the "common sense" of the American people. Boy, was I wrong! So was Cohn.
8
Trump always had a 100% chance to win the nom. It's not quantum mechanics, so there's nothing non-deterministic about it; saying 1% at the time is just representative of a lack of knowledge, an incomplete model. But it's nothing to be ashamed about: no one else predicted it either, including the other Nate.
1
Scott Adams predicted it.
Trump's agenda and Trump's remedies were available to everyone that began this contest (well, maybe not John Kasich or that Bush fellow). Million$ in free advertising were not....
1
It's not that hard. Many people are against unrestricted illegal immigration and free trade. People voted for Trump because he was the only candidate addressing these issues.
21
Argh! If only someone with a TV had told Nate Cohn about what was on it. Don't you know he doesn't care about pop culture?!
"If you had told me about the persistence of the coverage, I wouldn’t have dismissed his chances."
"If you had told me about the persistence of the coverage, I wouldn’t have dismissed his chances."
4
"...he had unlimited free media..."
That was all he needed.
He still is getting it.
DJT "excitement" levels in NYT Wire headlines and ledes are palpable. Please, NYT, stop adding to his perceived credibility. Attention alone - irrespective of facts, policy, ethics, beliefs - lends power to individuals, which is why they seek it.
That was all he needed.
He still is getting it.
DJT "excitement" levels in NYT Wire headlines and ledes are palpable. Please, NYT, stop adding to his perceived credibility. Attention alone - irrespective of facts, policy, ethics, beliefs - lends power to individuals, which is why they seek it.
4
Hey Nate-- maybe you're just not that good at this. Maybe your statistics are not as predictive as you'd like to think they are.
The Republican had a deep field of lightweights and nitwit such that even the biggest blowhard charlatan fraud looked better and more authentic in comparison.
The Republican had a deep field of lightweights and nitwit such that even the biggest blowhard charlatan fraud looked better and more authentic in comparison.
5
In a congress that has a 13% approval rating you are surprised the nominee didn't come from congress over an outsider?
Its not what you got wrong a about Donald Trump, rather what you got wrong about his supporters and voters. What is it about Trump that voters can overlook his insensitive remarks? If all you want to do is criticize his voters, your fellow citizens, rather than understand them, then you will have to continue to write more articles about what you got wrong with Trump.
Its not what you got wrong a about Donald Trump, rather what you got wrong about his supporters and voters. What is it about Trump that voters can overlook his insensitive remarks? If all you want to do is criticize his voters, your fellow citizens, rather than understand them, then you will have to continue to write more articles about what you got wrong with Trump.
12
I would argue that we do understand David Duke and his ilk, and they Love Donald Trump, he's promised to make them Great Again.
1
The thing that convinced me was what all the talking heads were saying before the first debate: "How can Trump possibly survive on a stage with REAL POLITICIANS?" It was obvious that, as a media personality, Trump would have vastly more skills at manipulating a television audience than any of the others, and that's what the nomination process has turned into.
Trump as the Republican is the best possible outcome for the Democrats, IF we can convince the Sanders junkies to support the party. Jill Stein could be the new Ralph Nader.
Trump as the Republican is the best possible outcome for the Democrats, IF we can convince the Sanders junkies to support the party. Jill Stein could be the new Ralph Nader.
3
Good soul-searching analysis from an excellent writer. But isn't the terrible performance by candidate Jeb Bush a bigger part of this than you indicate? Trump pegged him as "low energy" and he lived up to the label. Bush had the nomination practically handed to him and was flummoxed by a big mouth ignoramus.
8
Absolutely right; of course I can't stand Trump but he handled Bush brilliantly, and the way Bush let himself get pushed around by the big lout he deserved his bum's rush out. In fact, good for Trump: he re-wrote the script and turned the tables, and now the republican standard bearers are scrambling about naked and afraid. What a treat -- if we only had Hunter S Thompsonesqe 'Fear and Loathing' dispatches to really get the cycle rolling!
GOP has lied to their constituents for years, and they got real angry. Understandably so. The 17 candidates were all flawed and weak. Trump was on cable news channels 2 nights a week for several hours a night for several consecutive weeks this past Fall, I have never in my life seen someone get the free media attention that he received.
This is why Trump won. Not that difficult to see or understand.
This is why Trump won. Not that difficult to see or understand.
15
Let's ask a much simpler question - how did all of the talking-head experts predict a contested convention as recently as a week ago....
.. and be so wrong?
.. and be so wrong?
14
Exactly. Why was anyone discussing Indiana as a stronghold for Cruz. In what universe would Trump win in Wisconsin and Illinois, but not Indiana?
Major underestimation of Trump by all the elite. The very fact of that - the huge disconnect between the people who have any power in this country (to include the writer of this column) and everyone else - demonstrates how far this country has gone awry and suggests a "correction" at the very least (no matter how politically incorrect).
This will continue all the way to the general election. He can't possibly win! Hillary will trounce him! Perhaps you should write THAT column now, too.
This will continue all the way to the general election. He can't possibly win! Hillary will trounce him! Perhaps you should write THAT column now, too.
30
Why should we believe pollsters now when they say Hillary has a 13 point lead.
I think you may well have Trump as your president because Hillary is so intensely disliked by so many.
Trump will just portray himself in ways that are dreamed up to win him more support.
God help America, whoever wins.
I think you may well have Trump as your president because Hillary is so intensely disliked by so many.
Trump will just portray himself in ways that are dreamed up to win him more support.
God help America, whoever wins.
16
The 2016 presidential election cycle is an oxymoron. The candidates with the highest unfavorable ratings are now the presumptive party nominees. This bespeaks volumes of the American political system and its electorate. Time to reflect, regroup and repair but not with eyes wide shut!
5
Out here, it was not as easy to see the rise of Trump. The Republican establishment has a death grip on its power and won't allow any backsliding or diversion to some other candidate, particularly delegates. Elsewhere, what I see is the misdirected anger of Trump supporters. The Republicans have controlled the House of Representatives for 16 of the last 20 years, and those very same Trump supporters keep reelecting the same Republicans to Congress and expect a different result (even when there was a Republican president). Where are the Trump look alikes in House and Senate races? Not one to be found. I keep asking Trump supporters about that cognitive dissonance and get no answers.
7
You are assuming that all those who have voted for Trump are the same voters who have "reelected the same Republicans to Congress". Where is your evidence for this assertion? Before you make condescending remarks about "misdirected anger", check the election results in early November to see if Trump has an impact on the face of Congress. Until then, your cognitive confusion is irrelevant.
4
I made no statement or assumption that all of those who voted for trump. As to the assertion, in my regular travels in other states, almost all the times I saw a Trump lawn sign, there was also a law sign for the current Republican office holder in that district. As to misdirected anger, that has been true long before Trump. Just about every conservative I talked to in my very red state says the same thing. The person we elected to Congress is a good conservative. It is those Republicans from the other states that are the problem and I hear it across the country.
My take on this: Voters in both parties are sick of bought and paid for candidates who say one thing during the campaign and do whatever their owners want when elected. Whether you like them or not, neither Trump nor Sanders is owned.
796
And so they turn around and nominate one of the owners. They must want to cut out the middleman.
12
Trump is not ''owned'', he's just represents the special interests that buy the other candidates. The gullibility of Americans, to believe that this man is anything but a deeper entrenchment of the current system--it just blows my mind.
3
Trumps cash is from credit,he bows to the banks.
3
Many of the analysts discounted the extraordinarily low performance ratings given to Congress, and the related anger about the dysfunction of Congress. To a large extent, both the success of Mr. Trump, and what would be the similar success of Mr. Sanders were it not for the Democrat's super delegate system, is the response to all this dysfunction. It is not a subset of "angry, less educated white blue collar workers," but the reaction of a huge number of voters in both parties who really do believe that the system is broken, and show this with their votes. This is larger than the "rage" of the economically displaced, it is a statement that the political class no longer represents the voters, and this election is showing that these aren't just words in op-ed pieces, they are real problems that need to be solved one way or another.
38
Agree. Mitch McConnell's decision to put an end to Congress's constitutional role and turn it into nothing but a roadblock for a black President enraged many Americans. There must be change before it's too late. It may already be too late.
2
The number one reason you got it wrong is that you and most intellectual elites totally ignore blue collar workers who have been increasingly suffering for the past twenty years.
The elites in this country just love comforting economic theories like Greenspan claiming we needn't regulate Wall Street because those movers and shakers wouldn't be so dumb as to explode the economy or the more and better jobs that would result from globalization. They never, however, will stoop to talk to ordinary working people - the people who are unemployed, stop looking for jobs, incurred pay cuts and who fight our endless pointless wars.
The elites in this country just love comforting economic theories like Greenspan claiming we needn't regulate Wall Street because those movers and shakers wouldn't be so dumb as to explode the economy or the more and better jobs that would result from globalization. They never, however, will stoop to talk to ordinary working people - the people who are unemployed, stop looking for jobs, incurred pay cuts and who fight our endless pointless wars.
108
Gee Michael, I was going to write something, but couldn't say it any better.
Bravo! It's encouraging there are many that get it now speaking up. Too bad they're not in prominent places to be heard.
We need a purging of the media as well. Let's start with a news network owned and controlled by a foreigner. It used to be, not too long ago, that foreigners couldn't control a media company. Whatever happened to that....
Bravo! It's encouraging there are many that get it now speaking up. Too bad they're not in prominent places to be heard.
We need a purging of the media as well. Let's start with a news network owned and controlled by a foreigner. It used to be, not too long ago, that foreigners couldn't control a media company. Whatever happened to that....
3
So true. No stooping for them.
1
No one could have predicted who would capture the GOP nomination because the events did not play out in a closed system. Even the question of what would be the most important factors in selecting a candidate were also open to outside influences. However the one factor that all of the pundits got wrong was the conventional wisdom that raising large sums from special interests would be one of the most important determining factors in who got the nomination in both parties. After all if a candidate can't just buy the nomination outright then money is just a tool to be used to connect with those whose support a candidate needs to win
Many may attempt to predict a big win for Hillary at this time because of current polling. I doubt that anyone can tell me now whether or not there will be before the voting in November a terrorist attack on the U.S., an indictment of Hillary from a) her email server; b) Clinton Foundation fund raising or c) allowing State Dept Hillary aides to perform services for a private lobbyist Teneo while so employed; what the Trump University fraud trial will reveal; or a health issue with either Trump or Hillary given their ages & what the effect of such an event will have on the outcome of the election
So while it is possible to make "educated" guesses as to how Trump & Clinton will battle it out there are just too many unknown unknowns that can intervene to make the outcome unknowable at this time
Many may attempt to predict a big win for Hillary at this time because of current polling. I doubt that anyone can tell me now whether or not there will be before the voting in November a terrorist attack on the U.S., an indictment of Hillary from a) her email server; b) Clinton Foundation fund raising or c) allowing State Dept Hillary aides to perform services for a private lobbyist Teneo while so employed; what the Trump University fraud trial will reveal; or a health issue with either Trump or Hillary given their ages & what the effect of such an event will have on the outcome of the election
So while it is possible to make "educated" guesses as to how Trump & Clinton will battle it out there are just too many unknown unknowns that can intervene to make the outcome unknowable at this time
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The author is partly right. But what he and most other media outlets get wrong is ascribing some of Trump's victory to Trump's skills. Totally wrong. Instead, we need to focus on the voters who voted for Trump (and the Sanders voters too). They rejected the establishment and the Tea Party, which never had middle class mainstream people in mind. The voters know when they'll be left as forgotten collateral damage in the ongoing political wars in Congress and the Executive branch. So they voted for Trump as the only way to maybe break out. They didn't vote for Trump's rhetoric so much as against a continuation of pointless political combat at their expense.
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What Donald Trump's victory has proved is that elections are unpredictable.
Sure, you can make an educated guess. But there was simply no way for anyone to know last year how things would play out. So any retrospective analysis like this is just meaningless navel gazing.
From economic policy to climate change, pundits never seem to doubt that they can predict how causes will effect complex systems. Better that you realize that the nature of complex systems makes them inherently unpredictable. That trial and error works much better than making and acting on predictions.
Sure, you can make an educated guess. But there was simply no way for anyone to know last year how things would play out. So any retrospective analysis like this is just meaningless navel gazing.
From economic policy to climate change, pundits never seem to doubt that they can predict how causes will effect complex systems. Better that you realize that the nature of complex systems makes them inherently unpredictable. That trial and error works much better than making and acting on predictions.
2
It would help if they all understood that all complex systems tend to be more stable with negative feedback loops in effect.
4
Trump won because he perceived and acknowledged the rage of those who have been both economically and culturally displaced. It's extraordinary that, even at this late stage, both the writer and the political elites still do not "get" it. Secretary Clinton's remark about putting miners out of business was telling as to both her intentions and just how invisible average people are to her and other elites, just how easily they are dismissed as “knuckle draggers” because their lack of wealth leaves them only anger and disruption as political weapons. She and the others offer absolutely no rational explanation of what our new employee-light economy will do with the tens of millions of people of average intelligence and ambition that have been or will be discarded as newly useless. ("Go to college, borrow tens of thousands of dollars and then go be a minimum-wage CNR in a nursing home” is not a plan that will keep the peace for long.) These people are not going to disappear, even if the elite persist in averting their view. "Attention must be paid."
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The title of this piece ought to be "What economic and party elites got wrong about the 99 per cent".
5
But the dispossessed are not Trump's base. It is above average income voters according to an analysis of who has voted for him.
4
Good ending with the line from "Death of a Salesman".
1
Establishment conservatives needn't despair; there's still an acceptable conservative on the ballot this fall: Hillary Clinton.
On the important issues of oligarchy, the Wall Street vampire squid with its blood funnel plunging into the middle and lower classes, globalization of the labor market and corporate welfare in the form of sub-living wages for the masses, Hillary Clinton is a candidate totally acceptable to the Republican establishment.
Ignore the hot-button social issues. They existed solely to divide the people and distract from the real issues. Hillary's social liberalism is in no way anathema to the Republican establishment, as long as she's OK with the economic status quo.
What you've got wrong about the election is that the Republican establishment has jumped off the sinking ship of the old Republican party and taken control of the Democratic one. What's left of the Republican party is Ross Perot's 3rd party. The real question is whether an actual center-left party will soon emerge with leaders like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Jeff Merkley, and Sherrod Brown.
On the important issues of oligarchy, the Wall Street vampire squid with its blood funnel plunging into the middle and lower classes, globalization of the labor market and corporate welfare in the form of sub-living wages for the masses, Hillary Clinton is a candidate totally acceptable to the Republican establishment.
Ignore the hot-button social issues. They existed solely to divide the people and distract from the real issues. Hillary's social liberalism is in no way anathema to the Republican establishment, as long as she's OK with the economic status quo.
What you've got wrong about the election is that the Republican establishment has jumped off the sinking ship of the old Republican party and taken control of the Democratic one. What's left of the Republican party is Ross Perot's 3rd party. The real question is whether an actual center-left party will soon emerge with leaders like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Jeff Merkley, and Sherrod Brown.
532
This is the best, most coherent and accurate statement I've seen on this unbelievable election.
2
If Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Jeff Merkley, and Sherrod Brown are "center"- left it would be interesting to know what far left could possibly be.
Sam, this is the best precis of the whole situation that I have read in a long time! Bravo.
1
Nate,
You admitted that you were wrong about Donald Trump and then went on to list the reasons causing you to be wrong. I have to say that you are also wrong on these. The main reason for Trump's success is first and foremost the Republican primary voters (and many Americans if we include the Democratic primary voters) are angry and distrustful of politicians and that they are economically hurting. It has nothing or very little to do with the crowed field of the GOP candidates or that they are weak or the rules. Donald Trump correctly read and listens to the pulses of the majority of American workers and tell them what they want to hear. Had it not been for Sanders on the Democratic side, many independents would have gone for Trump. Give Trump credit for correctly sensing and understanding the mood and the passion of the a majority of Americans. Opposing an unauthentic with a heavy burden of being untrustworthy like Hillary Clinton, Trump has a 50/50 chance of defeating Clinton.
You admitted that you were wrong about Donald Trump and then went on to list the reasons causing you to be wrong. I have to say that you are also wrong on these. The main reason for Trump's success is first and foremost the Republican primary voters (and many Americans if we include the Democratic primary voters) are angry and distrustful of politicians and that they are economically hurting. It has nothing or very little to do with the crowed field of the GOP candidates or that they are weak or the rules. Donald Trump correctly read and listens to the pulses of the majority of American workers and tell them what they want to hear. Had it not been for Sanders on the Democratic side, many independents would have gone for Trump. Give Trump credit for correctly sensing and understanding the mood and the passion of the a majority of Americans. Opposing an unauthentic with a heavy burden of being untrustworthy like Hillary Clinton, Trump has a 50/50 chance of defeating Clinton.
447
Trump didn't "correctly" read anything ... he stumbled into this victory. And he has no idea how to "fix" any of the long term issues that a broad swath of the voting public suffer from ... nothing. That's the real irony. And much as you might want to disagree, Clinton and the Dems actually do and would have moved in those directions if not for the last 7 1/2 years of the party of no.
If Clinton looses, the rump of the GOP will spin Trump to suit their agenda and we will simply regress into an even dark less progressive place ...
If Clinton looses, the rump of the GOP will spin Trump to suit their agenda and we will simply regress into an even dark less progressive place ...
2
The idea that liberal Americans are so disenfranchised that they would vote for Trump if it weren't for Bernie Sander is a bit terrifying. Other than being angry, what else do they have in common? Their policies, ideas and solutions are pretty opposite no matter what Trump says about being for the regular Joe.
Americans seem to vote via their feelings and not their intellect. This isn't a messy personal relationship but the decision to elect the POTUS. I'm Canadian and to the left of Sanders on pretty much everything. I like what he says but am actually put off by his anger. It's not that constructive.
Also, most Americans dont realize that America has a trade deficit with nearly every country in the world, not just China. Or that no country consumes as much stuff. Or that killing NAFTA would limit access to your largest export market (Canada) and your second largest export market (Mexico, if excluding EU as one entity). Maybe killing it would be the right thing to do but it should be well thought out, not a sound byte.
Americans seem to vote via their feelings and not their intellect. This isn't a messy personal relationship but the decision to elect the POTUS. I'm Canadian and to the left of Sanders on pretty much everything. I like what he says but am actually put off by his anger. It's not that constructive.
Also, most Americans dont realize that America has a trade deficit with nearly every country in the world, not just China. Or that no country consumes as much stuff. Or that killing NAFTA would limit access to your largest export market (Canada) and your second largest export market (Mexico, if excluding EU as one entity). Maybe killing it would be the right thing to do but it should be well thought out, not a sound byte.
7
1. Tells people what they want to hear.
Every politician does this
2. Angry voters
Where were you in '68? There are always angry voters.
3. Trump correctly reads and listens to pulses
Or voters just want to use Trump to stick it to DC.
There is no reason to give Trump credit for anything. He has no idea what he is doing except that he could shoot someone on 5th Ave and still get support. He's a draft dodger, he's never held office and his steaks stink.
What is going to happen is some truth will abound and his time will be over.
Every politician does this
2. Angry voters
Where were you in '68? There are always angry voters.
3. Trump correctly reads and listens to pulses
Or voters just want to use Trump to stick it to DC.
There is no reason to give Trump credit for anything. He has no idea what he is doing except that he could shoot someone on 5th Ave and still get support. He's a draft dodger, he's never held office and his steaks stink.
What is going to happen is some truth will abound and his time will be over.
4
You also underestimated the popularity of Trump's position on immigration, his number one issue. There seems to be a huge gap between how many of the political/media/business elite view immigration and how many working people view immigration.
I also agree that Trump's media savvy is a big part of his success. Someone on Bill Maher's show recently noted the parallels with FDR in the 1930s who utilized the new technology of radio, and with JFK who utilized TV in 1960. Trump understands reality TV and social media in an intuitive way that the other candidates cannot match.
I also agree that Trump's media savvy is a big part of his success. Someone on Bill Maher's show recently noted the parallels with FDR in the 1930s who utilized the new technology of radio, and with JFK who utilized TV in 1960. Trump understands reality TV and social media in an intuitive way that the other candidates cannot match.
221
A 140 character attention span helps keep up the pace.
2
Agree. Plus, Trump's understanding of how sick and tired people are of political correctness played a role. Being expected to pretend something is true that obviously is false is intolerable. Who is helped by that?
9
I like how you think. You can definitely make parallels with JFK and FDR's usage of new technology and media.
the same for Bill Clinton in the 90's. It's worth mentioning: he was the first Presidential candidate to go on a late night talk show. To go on a talk show at all. he appeared on Arsenio hall, playing the Sax. that cemented him as "hip" and "cool', compared with the usual stuffy types, and though the 'establishment" mocked him and scoffed at the idea, well, he won.
And Reagan himself, knew how to put on a show. He was an actor after all, so he knew how to work the cameras and project an image.
Trump does much the same, but with the reality TV twist and twitter
the same for Bill Clinton in the 90's. It's worth mentioning: he was the first Presidential candidate to go on a late night talk show. To go on a talk show at all. he appeared on Arsenio hall, playing the Sax. that cemented him as "hip" and "cool', compared with the usual stuffy types, and though the 'establishment" mocked him and scoffed at the idea, well, he won.
And Reagan himself, knew how to put on a show. He was an actor after all, so he knew how to work the cameras and project an image.
Trump does much the same, but with the reality TV twist and twitter
2
The answer, has always been hiding in plain sight: A huge, justifiable degree of public anger regarding the broken Washington political system. This is a Black Swan only for those who didn't, or couldn't, see the obvious. The situation has a parallel: The also hiding in plain sight debacle of the financial collapse linked to the real estate market. Very few had the insight, and courage to challenge the status quo. Those who did made a fortune by shorting the market. The rest lost their shirts. There is, however, an alternative handle (instead of a Black Swan) to describe both cases. It's called denial.
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"This is a Black Swan only for those who didn't, or couldn't, see the obvious. "
That sounds like you knew from the very beginning that Trump would win the nomination. If you absolutely knew that, because you could see the obvious where others didn't, you should be very rich by now, having placed lots of money on his winning. So - did you really pick Trump from the very first?
That sounds like you knew from the very beginning that Trump would win the nomination. If you absolutely knew that, because you could see the obvious where others didn't, you should be very rich by now, having placed lots of money on his winning. So - did you really pick Trump from the very first?
2
This is the classic threat of a democracy: sometimes the people get what they want. Trump clearly will be the nominee and its a result of winning the most votes. Its just as simple as that. What the people want the people get.
Now the interesting thing is watching the debates between Clinton and Trump. And I see Clinton getting destroyed by the unpredictable wild card that is Trump.
Now the interesting thing is watching the debates between Clinton and Trump. And I see Clinton getting destroyed by the unpredictable wild card that is Trump.
18
I think what is also underestimated is the fact that Trump's campaign is self-financed.
From the recent piece on 60 Minutes we're learning how our incoming congressional legislators are encouraged to spend 30 - 40 hours (PER WEEK!!!) "dialing for dollars". I can't imagine the stress of funding a presidential race is much different. So, now imagine you don't have to be bothered with that side of the business, that you have the luxury of the discretionary time to "think" versus "react" to what everyone else is doing or saying.
It all comes down to the Golden Rule: he with the gold makes the rules...
From the recent piece on 60 Minutes we're learning how our incoming congressional legislators are encouraged to spend 30 - 40 hours (PER WEEK!!!) "dialing for dollars". I can't imagine the stress of funding a presidential race is much different. So, now imagine you don't have to be bothered with that side of the business, that you have the luxury of the discretionary time to "think" versus "react" to what everyone else is doing or saying.
It all comes down to the Golden Rule: he with the gold makes the rules...
7
Money clearly paid a part but in the end it was the people that wanted trump to win. Jeb and then later Rubio had much more corporate backers but they both ended up losing.
3
I haven't seen any sign that Drumpf - errrr, Trump -- spends much time "thinking."
3
Self-financed, Mr. Clark? No, free press financed. Some of the ego-centric "talk" shows even let him call in every day. It's sick, sick, sick wealth worship. Wealth with no brains.
3
The rise of Trump signals popular rejection of the "post-reform" era. The issues critical to the United States, right now, are immigration, globalism, and our pointless foreign military interventions. All the rest is salad. Trump was the first candidate in decades to point out that policy dealing with these issues are rigged against working-class Americans. Go ahead, spit on them, call them racists clinging to God and guns. It doesn't matter. They know you'll condemn them regardless what they do. And besides, it isn't as if they're listening to you anymore.
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It wasn't Trump you got wrong, but the Republican party, its voters and the buffoons in the contest. It was Donald Trump and the 11 dwarfs from the outset. Now that Lucifer is out of the race, they have nominated Satan. The general election will now be between the most hated Democrat and the most despicable Republican.
3
The accumulation of economic distress is mentally and physically killing substantial numbers of republican voters and these voters are lashing out against the forces harming them: Lack of health care access, disappearing factories, employment opportunities, etc. Celebrity, iconoclasm, narcissism, would have torpedoed Trump - not aided him- if these conditions were not present. That's what Nate Cohn got wrong about Donald Trump.