How Donald Trump Could Win the Nomination Outright? When more delegates realize that Cruz and Kasich would mean NO change and secret deals with their donors could be expected of these BEGGARS!
I have no use for rigging or collusion in any endeavor and if this should cause him to lose the nomination as a Republican I hope he runs as an Independent. Even though I have little time for him or any of the Repoublicans and unless Mr Sanders is the Democrat's nominee, I would be tempted to cast my vote for him as a protest.
Cruz and Kasich are showing muddy colors on warped palettes.
Cruz and Kasich are showing muddy colors on warped palettes.
1
Voters and politicians claim to be alarmed when Trump makes statements about bringing torture back, despite the fact that there are international and national laws against its use. But the Obama Administration decided to not investigate and prosecute the guilty of the CIA and military, just as that administration did not prosecute banking and mortgage industry leaders for their financial crimes and fraud. Trump would not be talking about bringing torture back if he, and we, had witnessed convictions and imprisonment of the guilty. The same with the financial industry. Those crimes are without question, going to occur again. Since Hillary Clinton has claimed that she is going to protect and extend Obama's legacy, we can only assume that when the bankers do break the law, President Clinton will let them walk free among us, just as Obama has. And some question whether those highly paid speeches were a good investment for the financial companies. The answer should be obvious.
The motivation for Cruz supporters is materially diminished. Knowing he can't win and likely won't be the white knight may well throttle his votes in Montana, Th Dakotas and particularly Indiana.
I want him to miss by one, and then lose the nomination. Tee hee!
3
i think it will be just a handful one way or the other. love to see him miss by one
They're all scared of Trump. Relying on his own money instead of taking money from lobbyists and others like the other candidates, makes them worry about what he'll do as POTUS.
2
Don't forget New Jersey, which I believe has 52 winner take all. The latest poll show Trump-52, Kasick-24, Ted-18 for NJ.
Trump is the only one that can contest the corrupt DNC, Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Hillary Clinton. Never before has America been held hostage by the likes of the DNC and it's inevitable annointing of the worst, most dishonest, and egocentric woman in history. Trump WILL be presidential going forward. He will display his real passion and smarts going forward. He will still pay his own way, with some help. The thought of a Clinton presidency will change this country forever...in a tragic and destructive way. He is real and honest. A welcome change from Obama and the thought of HRC!
2
...from one of the people who are fooled all of the time.
12
your statements and assumptions are probably taken from Trump's propaganda. Anybody, buying his Brand is probably living in clouds. Trump will be Presidential is another Puff of Smoke Trump has been blowing in the air that this writer has bought into. I have followed this Brand called Trump for the past 34 years. It is nothing but farce.
2
"most dishonest, and egocentric woman in history." This statement is, of course, ridiculous. During this Presidential campaign, Politoco's fact checking shows her at 50% true or mostly true. Trump is at 9%. (The rest: Cruz at 22%, Sanders at 49%, Kasich at 52%.)
She has testified many times, she has been investigated by government and by the media many times, and there has never been a smoking gun uncovered.
Egocentricity is definitely in the eye of the beholder. With no objective measure for that trait, you can award her that title if you like.
She has testified many times, she has been investigated by government and by the media many times, and there has never been a smoking gun uncovered.
Egocentricity is definitely in the eye of the beholder. With no objective measure for that trait, you can award her that title if you like.
3
Memo to the Republican Party: Please, please, please cheat Donald Trump out of your party's nomination and do it in prime time and on national television for all to see how much you, as a party, hate democracy.
7
They don't hate Democracy they just think it's too fair. They remind me of bank robbers taking $5 million from the safe in 6 minutes and then spending another 6 minutes taking $383.14 from the 11 customers. Republican Jokes will soon be the new " blonde " jokes as the Great Progressve Era of the 21st Century is sustained and the SCOTUS is a Progressive Court well toward the 2050s.
1
We can hope!!!
1
I'm actually hoping he wins the nomination and blows the GOP apart. They need to forcefully pay for their decades of racist fear-mongering. They created the Tea Party; now let them live with it.
1
Nobody knows for sure, and I respect the analyses of Nate Cohn and Nate Silver. I am a Californian by transplant. I think Trump is going to fall short by 25 to 50 votes and that he won't get it in the first two rounds. Cruz will not be able to pull it off either. I think it will be multi-round balloting eventually leading to the party elders selecting a white knight ...or is this just wishful thinking...
1
Wishful thinking
8
Always good to read a data-driven analysis, but Cohn is overthinking it. First this election is Not Democrats vs Republicans. The electorate is 42% Independents, 30% Dems, 26% Repubs (Gallup 1/15).
This election has become the People vs the DNC/RNC Establishments. Trump and Sanders have radicalized the People against the 0.1% establishment. Trump is not Republican and neither is Sanders a Democrat - both are using the major parties as vehicles.
There is little difference between these two Establishments - they make policy for the 0.1% and Hoover up all the money from the pockets of the People, which is deposited in their off-shore bank accounts. The Dem establishment throws back 20% to the masses so they won't see through the scam. The Repub establishment hordes every penny and leaves nothing on the table.
But the People are waking up. They may have googled: "Princeton Page Study", a major peer-reviewed study that shows that America is not a Democracy at all - its been an oligarchy of the 0.1% for decades.
So what will happen is Trump will destroy Slick Hilly by going negative with her target-rich history of sleaze, plus the Sandanistas refuse to support Clinton. Instead they write-in Sanders or vote Trump. Either way Trump gets in.
Or Sanders beats Trump (he already polls way ahead) after he gets the nomination when Slick Hilly gets indicted on her criminal charge.
Or Trump very strategically chooses Sanders as a running mate, which would be game over.
This election has become the People vs the DNC/RNC Establishments. Trump and Sanders have radicalized the People against the 0.1% establishment. Trump is not Republican and neither is Sanders a Democrat - both are using the major parties as vehicles.
There is little difference between these two Establishments - they make policy for the 0.1% and Hoover up all the money from the pockets of the People, which is deposited in their off-shore bank accounts. The Dem establishment throws back 20% to the masses so they won't see through the scam. The Repub establishment hordes every penny and leaves nothing on the table.
But the People are waking up. They may have googled: "Princeton Page Study", a major peer-reviewed study that shows that America is not a Democracy at all - its been an oligarchy of the 0.1% for decades.
So what will happen is Trump will destroy Slick Hilly by going negative with her target-rich history of sleaze, plus the Sandanistas refuse to support Clinton. Instead they write-in Sanders or vote Trump. Either way Trump gets in.
Or Sanders beats Trump (he already polls way ahead) after he gets the nomination when Slick Hilly gets indicted on her criminal charge.
Or Trump very strategically chooses Sanders as a running mate, which would be game over.
2
Most of your analysis is very sound. Sanders actually has little solid support. Aside from a core his support is actually a protest vote. As you say he's the vehicle. As for Trump his core is far larger and across party lines. He's sort of a Reaganesque figure. Trump will win the general in a landslide.
4
What the RNC fails to understand is that Trump supporters are voting against both Hilary/DNC AND the RNC! The efforts of the Republican establishment to undermine Trump are actually helping him to attract even more voters fed up with politics as usual. The RNC's inability to recognize, embrace and capitalize on the populist themes Trump has resurrected will doom the party...for the better! Oh, one more thing...all the liberal Dems that are cheering Trump on with the thought Hilary will beat him hands down? Same Hilary that was completely undermined by a charismatic minority inexperienced and unknown Senator in '08 and given the run for her life this year by a grandfatherly 74 year old unknown from Vermont? Just wait for Trump the lion to pounce! Almost makes the election irrelevant...whoever wins or loses in Nov. will not be nearly as exciting as the battle of egos leading up to it! LOL.
8
Trump will win the nomination as long as he tacks a bit more to the center. If he can start convincing Kasich voters that he is not as bad as Ted Cruz I think he will probably do it.
4
so...he just needs to be more politically correct??? Then he can fool a few more voters? What kind of policy is that?
3
Trump will get the required number of delegates to become the G.O.P. nominee if he is ready and willing to wheel and deal "outside the box." Trump's victory over his Republican challengers, however, will be a Pyrrhic victory for both the Party of Lincoln and the Party of Trump. Although one can debate whether Trump is the logical outcome that awaits G.O.P.'s political logic since Reagan, one cannot deny that the emergence of Trump marks the end of the G.O.P. as we know it. In this connection, it is time to seriously examine where the Party of Trump will take America and the world should the only-recently- unimaginable happen.
4
I still can't imagine Trump and Melania downsizing to the White House for the next eight years. He'll be 78 when he leaves the Presidency. Too old for much fun in his twilight years. Maybe he will try it out for awhile, get tired of boring state dinners, endless foreign policy briefings, tedious people, and battles with Congress and just quit. Palin did it and it didn't hurt her brand much..
3
The coalition of right and moderate in the Republican party is broken beyond repair. It is time for the Republican party to break into 2 parties and center of the road party will attract moderate democratic to form a center governing majority.
3
After reading this article, it looks likely to me that Mr. Trump will get the nomination. He's strong in California and here in the remaining East Coast states. As reports in this paper have mentioned, the RNC is unlikely to broker the convention if Trump gets close enough, because taking the nomination away from the candidate with a commanding lead will damage the Republican party irreparably.
10
I'm in California and Trump will easily win in a landslide against Lyin Ted...
4
As a Democrat in his 70s, who has voted for only one Republican in his whole life (Schwarzenegger in a momentary lapse of sanity), I'm thinking of switching to the GOP to vote for Trump in California and help pave the way for Hillary.
Or is it better not to and hope Trump falls short on a first vote at the convention and unleashes chaos? Politics can be so confusing.
Or is it better not to and hope Trump falls short on a first vote at the convention and unleashes chaos? Politics can be so confusing.
12
Let the GOP torpedo its own ship. "Strategic" voting has a way of backfiring and imagine how guilty you would feel if the Trump torpedo backfired and hit you (and all the rest of us).
3
The FBI will pave Hiler-y's way.
Fence it!
Defend it!
Deport it!
Stop the 30 year invasion of Illegals and secure our border(s)
E-Verify & Bio-metrics to combat Visa overstays(Chip'em Dano)
Fence it!
Defend it!
Deport it!
Stop the 30 year invasion of Illegals and secure our border(s)
E-Verify & Bio-metrics to combat Visa overstays(Chip'em Dano)
Just prosecute and imprison the employers. Cheaper and quicker than the fence.
9
How realistic is it that the delegates of the state that elected Arlen Specter would thwart the will of the popular vote? Westmoreland and Alleghany are places I know a little bit about.
And a good thing too, if Trump gets it outright. Cruz is so much worse in all dimensions that Trump looks angelic in comparison. Really.
13
Nate, not true that there has been no polling in Indiana. Check out Bellwether2016.org. Emmy award winning documentation Don Campbell has been working there for almost a year studying the predictions of Vigo County. They are trending Trump.
1
I think that the interesting side effect of Trump taking the nomination this late in the cycle is that he kinda levels the playing field between himself and his opponents: Trump may have little clue about political peculiarities about California, but so does Cruz.
I don't think anyone really tried to win California's Republican primaries for so long that nobody, media included, has any idea what to expect.
I don't think anyone really tried to win California's Republican primaries for so long that nobody, media included, has any idea what to expect.
6
I agree. Califoria is an astute State and a wild card.
1
Expect an independent run from Mr. Trump if the RNC manages to squeeze him out at the convention. However, judging by the turnout at his rally here in Indianapolis yesterday, I would expect him to do well in the Hoosier state. Odds are that Mr. Trump will be the nominee. God help us all.
9
Why? If Trump loses to Madame Mao...then God help us.
7
I am not a fan of Donald Trump, by far, but he's winning this fair and square. Whatever you want to say about Trump, voters like him. Are they misguided? Maybe. Are they entitled to vote for whoever they want and not have their votes voided out by their betters in the party elite? Of course they are.
No matter who comes out of the convention as the nominee, there is no alternative that does not blow up the Republican party. Pass up Trump and his voters will be out of there. Nominate Cruz and let the voters spend months feasting their eyes on the hard right wing ideologue who believes it is fine to hold his breath until he turns blue and shut down the government because he doesn't like Obamacare. Nominate Kasich and sit back and watch all of the commercials showing him being pulled over by the cop and then breaking into his own speech later on to start raving about how stupid the cop was. I'm sure the law enforcement community will be behind him. The GOP has driven itself into a ditch. I'll enjoy watching the wheels spin on the upside down clown car.
No matter who comes out of the convention as the nominee, there is no alternative that does not blow up the Republican party. Pass up Trump and his voters will be out of there. Nominate Cruz and let the voters spend months feasting their eyes on the hard right wing ideologue who believes it is fine to hold his breath until he turns blue and shut down the government because he doesn't like Obamacare. Nominate Kasich and sit back and watch all of the commercials showing him being pulled over by the cop and then breaking into his own speech later on to start raving about how stupid the cop was. I'm sure the law enforcement community will be behind him. The GOP has driven itself into a ditch. I'll enjoy watching the wheels spin on the upside down clown car.
38
Interesting that the paradigm for our times has become the Party vs. the People...
1
There will be no brokered/contested convention.
That idea was conjured up from the media to sell attention by provocation. There will be an "Open" convention, as always.
Trump will walk into Cleveland with well over 50% of the delegates won.
In 1976 Gerald Ford entered the open GOP convention with 53% of the delegates to Ronald Reagans 45%. A close race but Ford still won. The convention was a formality to declare the leading candidate the nominee - Gerald Ford. That is what will happen in July - Donald Trump will be the nominee!
No party convention would undermine the will of the voters. No one in their right mind would challenge American voters decision or there will be blood.
At this point Cruz and Kasich look like trolling fools with hopes of stealing the nomination. That’s the kind of political posturing Americans are sick and tired of. I say out with all the professional politicians and lets vote in representatives who want to serve the people of America not party interest, not corporate interest, not personal power grubbing like the “Beastie” Hillary.
Trump will beat Hillary in the general by an overwhelming majority. All the talk and polls suggesting Cruz and Kasich are the only candidates that beat her in a general election is pure campaign nonsense. This election comes down to capitalism against socialism.
It is shocking to me that there is such strong support from Democratic voters who want to usher in socialism. Do they really want to turn America into China?
That idea was conjured up from the media to sell attention by provocation. There will be an "Open" convention, as always.
Trump will walk into Cleveland with well over 50% of the delegates won.
In 1976 Gerald Ford entered the open GOP convention with 53% of the delegates to Ronald Reagans 45%. A close race but Ford still won. The convention was a formality to declare the leading candidate the nominee - Gerald Ford. That is what will happen in July - Donald Trump will be the nominee!
No party convention would undermine the will of the voters. No one in their right mind would challenge American voters decision or there will be blood.
At this point Cruz and Kasich look like trolling fools with hopes of stealing the nomination. That’s the kind of political posturing Americans are sick and tired of. I say out with all the professional politicians and lets vote in representatives who want to serve the people of America not party interest, not corporate interest, not personal power grubbing like the “Beastie” Hillary.
Trump will beat Hillary in the general by an overwhelming majority. All the talk and polls suggesting Cruz and Kasich are the only candidates that beat her in a general election is pure campaign nonsense. This election comes down to capitalism against socialism.
It is shocking to me that there is such strong support from Democratic voters who want to usher in socialism. Do they really want to turn America into China?
5
Hillary is a socialist? She is center left, which is why Sanders is challenging her. The part about the GOP convention is accurate.
2
These are interesting comments, however democracy is never so clean and predictable as you suggest. Most of us who have tried to predict things in this election have been wrong, so why are your predictions any different?
4
Democratic Socialism is a better more evolved form of Capitalism. Our current American capitalism has become a raging cancer, killing the people for the benefit of the 0.1%. Don't be a head-in-the-sand rah-rah thinker that automatically kowtows to "capitalism". You are worshiping a idol that does not exist. And please don't parrot other people's unthinking words who say, "It may not be the best system but it's better than all the others". Capitalism is not sacred and there are many ways to improve or change it. And how simplistic to think that we would "turn into China". Although they are cleaning our capitalist clock and will continue to do so because they are smarter, work harder, are better organized politically, invest in education and infrastructure, and think ahead. For fun google: China monster machine. Maybe we should hire them to rebuild America.
And by the way - this is important - if anyone thinks they're living in a Democracy, your thinking is obsolete. Google: 'Princeton Page Study', a major peer-reviewed study.
You will find that you've been living in an oligarchy run by the 0.1% for decades.
And no, it's not capitalism against socialism - this election is about the People vs the DNC/RNC Establishments.
And by the way - this is important - if anyone thinks they're living in a Democracy, your thinking is obsolete. Google: 'Princeton Page Study', a major peer-reviewed study.
You will find that you've been living in an oligarchy run by the 0.1% for decades.
And no, it's not capitalism against socialism - this election is about the People vs the DNC/RNC Establishments.
5
We absolutely need Trump to be elected in order to maintain our status quo. Someone that is committed to outsourcing his manufacturing overseas, maintaining a the lifestyle of an ever increasing 1% chasm of wealth. He is someone who values winning over integrity, those are our American values and must be protected.
23
Just watched the Trumps on TV trying to pitch themselves as a great American family worthy of being in The White House. Who would have thought this could happen? One thing is for sure, Donald Trump (and family) is the GOP establishment's grand prize for more than a decade of fomenting hatred, obstructing government, ignoring the nation's infrastructure decay and disrespecting the country's first black president. Republicans deserve Trump our country does not. If nominated, he will lose big and drag down a bunch of senators and congressmen with him which they so richly deserve.
77
A Goldstein - I think you are seriously underestimating Trump (which has been the big mistake since the beginning) if you think he will lose big to Clinton.
Trump will undoubtably morph his message and we have not even seen his VP yet. If he was to pick Jeb Bush (fluent in Spanish and strong on foreign policy) also mending GOP divisions between the base and establishment.
Clinton would be the one who would lose big... She is not truly liked by anyone,... She has very little momentum and no aupport of youth...
A few turns of the dial like Asding Jeb Bush to the ticket and dialing down the intense rhetoric by Trump is all it will take to destroy Clinton in the election...
Trump will undoubtably morph his message and we have not even seen his VP yet. If he was to pick Jeb Bush (fluent in Spanish and strong on foreign policy) also mending GOP divisions between the base and establishment.
Clinton would be the one who would lose big... She is not truly liked by anyone,... She has very little momentum and no aupport of youth...
A few turns of the dial like Asding Jeb Bush to the ticket and dialing down the intense rhetoric by Trump is all it will take to destroy Clinton in the election...
6
Mitch Smith,
Perhaps naively, I have faith in a majority of the voters even though plenty of them are angry, ignorant, and oblivious to facts. I would be shocked if Bush joined the Trump ticket but I suppose anything is possible in this election season.
I do not think Clinton is in as much trouble as you suggest. I expect her to gain at least a majority of Sanders' support. And like me, there are many, many people, including Republicans who will not vote for Trump. There is a growing mountain of Trump quotes, videos, interviews and historical tidbits to remind amnesiacs about who Trump really is and the trail of corpses left in his wake as a billionaire businessman.
Perhaps naively, I have faith in a majority of the voters even though plenty of them are angry, ignorant, and oblivious to facts. I would be shocked if Bush joined the Trump ticket but I suppose anything is possible in this election season.
I do not think Clinton is in as much trouble as you suggest. I expect her to gain at least a majority of Sanders' support. And like me, there are many, many people, including Republicans who will not vote for Trump. There is a growing mountain of Trump quotes, videos, interviews and historical tidbits to remind amnesiacs about who Trump really is and the trail of corpses left in his wake as a billionaire businessman.
2
Yes, they won't say it...at least not yet, but many Republicans will vote for Hillary.
1
Don - Don has a bit of baggage from his past. He is winning because of the derelict actions of the 'new' Southern GOP. Check the records of the last three Congress' for filibuster's, number of legislative bills considered and days worked. As a former Republican I don't recognize the solid red South as being real Republican's. They're just "old South" philosophy in white collars.
6
another option, not explored by the author, is a deal with Rubio or Katich, for their delegates and the vice-presidency. Sure there is video of attacks by them on Trump but JFK picked his nemesis LBJ. They won and carried Texas. I well remember a line from Stalag 17 (the movie) uttered by William Holden (paraphrasing) " You know some people who say the worst things about one another end up getting married."
4
Calling all Californians, be good Patriots, vote Trump!
5
It's all about trade and immigration, two huge pocketbook issues that affect all working Americans. Apparently those who hate and/or fear Trump for his personal qualities care even more about keeping current trade and immigration policies as they are. Else we would see more responsible politicians willing to clamp down on mass low-skilled immigration and start restricting trade with low-wage countries like China. In the final analysis, a Clinton-Trump contest will be a referendum on the issues.
8
Yes, very true. I think it's that simple. And I'm tired of high-brow pundits trying to make it otherwise.
2
As a data cruncher myself, and even as a Sanders supporter, this article clearly spells out one big word: confusion. It reigns.
To the voters on both sides of the road, it seems likely that the Presidential election process itself has become a mockery of the constitutional provisions that were written for it. Perhaps it is time to completely review and rewrite this part of the Constitution, because the implementation of it now appears to be serving the elites, the PACs, their political puppets, and lastly, and least of all, the people!
Only Bernie Sanders is not served by people wedded to the PACS - the Pathetic America Corporation Syndicates. Scrap all money, even from the single use issue PACS and even the unions. Start OVER! Get money out of the Presidential election, by whatever legal means necessary.
In other words, change the Constitution.
To the voters on both sides of the road, it seems likely that the Presidential election process itself has become a mockery of the constitutional provisions that were written for it. Perhaps it is time to completely review and rewrite this part of the Constitution, because the implementation of it now appears to be serving the elites, the PACs, their political puppets, and lastly, and least of all, the people!
Only Bernie Sanders is not served by people wedded to the PACS - the Pathetic America Corporation Syndicates. Scrap all money, even from the single use issue PACS and even the unions. Start OVER! Get money out of the Presidential election, by whatever legal means necessary.
In other words, change the Constitution.
6
I say change the Supreme Court, not the Constitution. A Constitutional amendment is even more difficult that getting a Democrat elected President and Senate confirmation of Supreme Court justices. The Constitution as written is completely mute on campaign financing. It is only the dubious idea held by too many Supreme Court justices right now, that money is speech, that stands in the way of campaign finance legislation.
7
No question that whatever happens in this election, Citizens United has to go.
8
It can't be close
Speculating about how Trump might barely eke out a first ballot win is pointless.
What happened in the Virgin Islands is admittedly an extreme example of a process of delegate selection that will leave the seating of many delegates open to completely reasonable challenge. If it's at all close, the number of challenges, reasonable or not, will balloon until it exceeds the winning first ballot margin. Settling those seating challenges will involve procedural votes, and nobody's pledged delegates are pledged to take direction on procedural votes. Trump's and Cruz's delegate totals include large numbers of folks who have to vote for them on a ballot or three, but who don't really want them to win.
If Trump is still at loggerheads with the party establishment by the time the convention opens, he will need a bulletproof first ballot majority. He has to be so far ahead of a simple majority that they simply can't get away with stealing it, or he has to have a majority within his pledged delegate total who actually want him to win, and will vote his way on procedural votes.
Speculating about how Trump might barely eke out a first ballot win is pointless.
What happened in the Virgin Islands is admittedly an extreme example of a process of delegate selection that will leave the seating of many delegates open to completely reasonable challenge. If it's at all close, the number of challenges, reasonable or not, will balloon until it exceeds the winning first ballot margin. Settling those seating challenges will involve procedural votes, and nobody's pledged delegates are pledged to take direction on procedural votes. Trump's and Cruz's delegate totals include large numbers of folks who have to vote for them on a ballot or three, but who don't really want them to win.
If Trump is still at loggerheads with the party establishment by the time the convention opens, he will need a bulletproof first ballot majority. He has to be so far ahead of a simple majority that they simply can't get away with stealing it, or he has to have a majority within his pledged delegate total who actually want him to win, and will vote his way on procedural votes.
4
This is one of the most unnerving articles I've read in the past few weeks. To think Trump still has a real chance of getting the nomination is a scary validation of the intellectual laziness and bigotry of potentially a majority of the American voters. What's worse is that It no longer makes the Republican convention "must see TV."
8
Intellectual laziness is hand waving Trump voters as bigots and dismissing his arguments and their concerns as invalid. Ironically this is the same sort of behavior that's making him stronger.
4
I think you underestimate the situation and that Mr. Trump is a far stronger candidate than most imagine. The Reagan Democrats will all vote for him on immigration, outsourcing, trade and Obamacare. The formerly middle class has been getting exterminated since the Clintons and we know it. And now we have to put up with the insult of political correctness, reverse racism. We don't like it that he insults people and says provocative things or that he's a fat cat one percenter. As far as most of us are concerned, he's all we've got, like him or not.
5
since the Clintons? Reagan introduced the middle-class-destroying policies - not the Clintons
3
Just a bit of a side note. Have any of Trump's supporters wondered why he never ran for office in New York?--the place where he's most known. Maybe it's because there's no way he'd manage to be elected even dog catcher.
Maybe I need to change the company I keep, but I don't anyone who thinks he's anything but a buffoon who happened to make money on New York real estate after being given a ton of money from his daddy, while falling into de facto bankruptcy in the process.
Still voting for Trump and his mangled, incoherent ideas and promises? I've got this New York bridge...
Maybe I need to change the company I keep, but I don't anyone who thinks he's anything but a buffoon who happened to make money on New York real estate after being given a ton of money from his daddy, while falling into de facto bankruptcy in the process.
Still voting for Trump and his mangled, incoherent ideas and promises? I've got this New York bridge...
27
I haven't heard of too many buffoons with 9 billion. I sure know many billionaires with billions whose views I do not share (Koch brothers is one example). Never underestimate the enemy. It is probably a cardinal point taught at West Point and learned painfully in political contests ( Dewey Vs Truman, the GOP this year, and nations invading Russia throughout the last few centuries.)
13
Let's look at the math. The Donald was reportedly handed $40 some odd million when he began his journey to fame and fortune in 1974.
According to Bloomberg he's worth $2.9 billion, while Forbes puts it at $4-4.5 billion. According to a report by the Associated Press cited in Forbes had he simply put his money in an index fund he would be in the same economic ball park. (And btw and according to the Wall Street Journal he got $50 million when his father died in 2000).
But even at just looking at his real estate investing, let's consider this: When he began investing in trophy properties we were in a severe recession, prices were severely depressed and anyone with cash was king. If you had bought a brownstone on the Upper West Side of Manhattan--you could have picked one up for well under $100,000. It could be worth about $14 to $15 million today. Indeed even if you invested in the Bronx during that period you'd probably be up in the neighborhood of 2000%.
According to Bloomberg he's worth $2.9 billion, while Forbes puts it at $4-4.5 billion. According to a report by the Associated Press cited in Forbes had he simply put his money in an index fund he would be in the same economic ball park. (And btw and according to the Wall Street Journal he got $50 million when his father died in 2000).
But even at just looking at his real estate investing, let's consider this: When he began investing in trophy properties we were in a severe recession, prices were severely depressed and anyone with cash was king. If you had bought a brownstone on the Upper West Side of Manhattan--you could have picked one up for well under $100,000. It could be worth about $14 to $15 million today. Indeed even if you invested in the Bronx during that period you'd probably be up in the neighborhood of 2000%.
3
Donald Trump's heart is not in it for the right reasons. First 1237 are HALF the delegates plus ONE. He wont win. Go cry with Al Gore. Second, Bill Clinton had 2 big losses while running campaigns. Trump will lose. His heart is in this race to win the presidency. Trump will lose because his heart is in the wrong place. This job is about bettering the USA. About upholding our ideals and beliefs. Trump wants to win to win. He is an old fashioned bully. In it for himself.
13
This election is about keeping our jobs.
2
Well said. He always was. A brat and a bully that is. Ask any of the kids who grew up with him in Jamaica Estates. He is doing this for all the wrong reasons. It's what we used to call in the 70's "an ego trip' He baths in the power and adulation he gets at his rallies. Does he want the job? I think he wants to win but he doesn't want to spend the next 8 years doing the hard work involved in the presidency. Spending his golden years -his seventies - fighting with the likes of Priebus and Ryan? It would be comical if it weren't tragic. Donald, be careful what you wish for.....
1
There is a way that Trump can win the general election with ease.
There is a video of a 2007 speech to NASDAQ in which HRC partly )blames homeowners for the subprime mortgage crisis.
http://samuel-warde.com/2016/01/video-of-hillary-clinton-blaming-homeown...
There is also a Bear Stearns speech that I have not yet been able to find, in which she heavily blamed homeowners and supposedly praised Wall Street! Meanwhile, most economists blame Wall Street banks and credit agencies at least 90% for what happened
Both speeches are likely being inadvertently leaked or some dissenter in the ranks of Wall Street wants it out there now before it is too late. I surmise that videos or transcripts of Clinton's speeches will be leaked intentionally to the press once HRC is nominated to help defeat her. While Clinton is a friend of Wall Street, the love is not just returned. The bankers always prefer a sane Republican to any Democrat and HRC certainly to Sanders. If they can make a deal with Trump then Hillary will be history.
There is a video of a 2007 speech to NASDAQ in which HRC partly )blames homeowners for the subprime mortgage crisis.
http://samuel-warde.com/2016/01/video-of-hillary-clinton-blaming-homeown...
There is also a Bear Stearns speech that I have not yet been able to find, in which she heavily blamed homeowners and supposedly praised Wall Street! Meanwhile, most economists blame Wall Street banks and credit agencies at least 90% for what happened
Both speeches are likely being inadvertently leaked or some dissenter in the ranks of Wall Street wants it out there now before it is too late. I surmise that videos or transcripts of Clinton's speeches will be leaked intentionally to the press once HRC is nominated to help defeat her. While Clinton is a friend of Wall Street, the love is not just returned. The bankers always prefer a sane Republican to any Democrat and HRC certainly to Sanders. If they can make a deal with Trump then Hillary will be history.
4
No old HRC speech will swing many voters. The one way Trump could win would be an indictment of HRC over those e-mails. It may all come down to whether Atty. Gen. Loretta Lynch is willing to sacrifice her reputation by not acting on what may turn out to be a truly damming FBI report.
4
Horse-race!
If our Royal Media can keep the serfs deluded to see this election as a horse-race sport, the serfs won’t notice that we Lords and Barons here in the castle have taken their economy and democracy, that we have all the gold.
Our Royal Media can fool enough of the serfs to elect the Duchess of Hillaria, who promises to stand in the balcony of our castle’s northwest turret, clothed in robes of Goldman gold, and throw to the serfs handfuls of crumbs of pragmatism.
With enough of the serfs diverted to see it as horse-race sport, our lives of royal luxury here in the castle will be preserved.
We Lords and Barons can have and keep it all.
If our Royal Media can keep the serfs deluded to see this election as a horse-race sport, the serfs won’t notice that we Lords and Barons here in the castle have taken their economy and democracy, that we have all the gold.
Our Royal Media can fool enough of the serfs to elect the Duchess of Hillaria, who promises to stand in the balcony of our castle’s northwest turret, clothed in robes of Goldman gold, and throw to the serfs handfuls of crumbs of pragmatism.
With enough of the serfs diverted to see it as horse-race sport, our lives of royal luxury here in the castle will be preserved.
We Lords and Barons can have and keep it all.
8
I'm with the many (many, many) who find Trump positively revolting, but it seems to me something is amiss if he doesn't get the nomination at this point. He has won nearly every primary. Using abstruse rules to deny him only lends credence to what he and his supporters have been whining this whole time. The man terrifies me, but democracy should reign. He appears, for reasons I cannot fathom, to be the clear favorite among actual GOP voters. Unless Cruz or Kasich win every remaining primary, I don't see how it's fair to pick anyone but Trump. Let's just hope that in the general election, we prove that Churchill was correct when he said that Americans, after trying every other option, always do the right thing.
37
There is nothing undemocratic about proportional voting and rules requiring a majority instead of a plurality. We have this all the time in state races that require runoffs when this happens. The rules are set and should be abided by.
The path to clear victory is clear, get a MAJORITY of the delegates before the convention. If you don't do that, then you have not earned the nomination at that point.
The path to clear victory is clear, get a MAJORITY of the delegates before the convention. If you don't do that, then you have not earned the nomination at that point.
Thank god most Real republicans hate Trump and thank god their are more Democrats than Republicans in this country. We truly would be doomed if Trump was president. I am hoping for a brokered convention and Kasich ends up the republican compromise, at least I would have someone I could vote for. If Trump wins, The worst of all of us wins.
9
What are "real republicans" please? It seems your definition does not include voters. I see you count yourself among them. Please explain.
5
If Donald Trump can do in California what he did in his native New York, he can win more than the 130 delegates suggested in this article. He can even win more than 150, but he needs to travel in parts of California so to maximize his chances for more delegates. He also needs to poll higher than 50% so that he can be assured of the large delegate overhaul and win all the at-state delegates.
4
Trump will wind up on the ballot, no matter what.. He has been braying loudly about how the rules are rigged. It's his way of alerting us he'll make a run as an independent.And the GOP will run a 3rd party against him.
And I thank the GOP and Trump for their leading this country out of the combative woods. He is not qualified for leadership of anything ,much less leader of our great nation.Ted Cruz would turn this country into a nation at war over his extreme ideological views.Not pretty.
And since the last time I checked, we are electing a President, who still has to play his/her part in the 3 part system of our Federal government, no matter what the hysteria leads us to believe. Demagogic dictators not welcome in America., especially Trump and Cruz. Even Hitler was elected in Germany, but we just won't do it here.
And I thank the GOP and Trump for their leading this country out of the combative woods. He is not qualified for leadership of anything ,much less leader of our great nation.Ted Cruz would turn this country into a nation at war over his extreme ideological views.Not pretty.
And since the last time I checked, we are electing a President, who still has to play his/her part in the 3 part system of our Federal government, no matter what the hysteria leads us to believe. Demagogic dictators not welcome in America., especially Trump and Cruz. Even Hitler was elected in Germany, but we just won't do it here.
11
Yeah, I think folks get a little too worked about about candidates saying "I will do this and I will do that." Fact is, much of that stuff they cannot do. Bernie can run on single payer and higher tax brackets, but not chance of that. Donald can say he will "build a wall" and other stuff, but without congress he has zero chance of doing it.
Who cares if a candidate is against abortion, there is nothing he can do about it.
Look to our lame duck and the stuff he is trying to do, and getting rebuffed by the courts when he overreaches. Obama would implement single payer, raise tax rates, and a whole lotta other left side stuff, but he can't.
Who cares if a candidate is against abortion, there is nothing he can do about it.
Look to our lame duck and the stuff he is trying to do, and getting rebuffed by the courts when he overreaches. Obama would implement single payer, raise tax rates, and a whole lotta other left side stuff, but he can't.
After both Trump and Kaisich wiped out Cruz in New York, his claims that he, Cruz, can defeat anyone is in severe doubt. This man did snag delegates via hook and crook recently and this desperate gaming the system to thwart voter's choices infuriated GOP voters who will now punish him for this theft.
He is creepy, he cheats at the game, he is playing 'the insider has different rules' and he is definitely not someone responding to voter's desires. Kick him to the curb.
If someone hates Trump, there is a very nice man to vote for who was also born in the US unlike Cruz.
He is creepy, he cheats at the game, he is playing 'the insider has different rules' and he is definitely not someone responding to voter's desires. Kick him to the curb.
If someone hates Trump, there is a very nice man to vote for who was also born in the US unlike Cruz.
12
Kasich is the only reasonable one of the three. Too tame for the wild hordes of yahoos, however.
1
A lot of the PA delegates will vote for the winner, at least on the first ballot. I think his chances are better than 50-50.
5
Democrats and Republicans are still trying to stop Trump. I understand the Republicans--he would be a disaster for them in congress--but Democrats seem to be shooting themselves in the foot. Would they rather have Cruz? Trump is a harmless narcissus who will be happy with his name in big letters on Air Force One. Cruz is ready for the apocalypse.
34
The reason is obvious though! Clinton has a better DNA match with Cruz than with Trump or Sanders ...
If Trump is inevitable then surely he will try to destroy Hillary Clinton by any means possible because that is his pattern. Calling her "Crooked Hillary" is the first shot over her bow. Were I able to get to her advisors I would recommend that she do the following: Refer to Trump as "Charming Donald". Or "Cute Donald". Or "Sexy Donald". Or "Lovely Donald". Or even refer to him as "Don". Etc. Etc. These labels would tend to do him more harm to him than the more obvious things she could call him, and they would, in the long run, tend to demean him mightily.
21
"My good friend, Don."
1
"Donnie". A six year old emotionally in a 70 year old body.
1
He's unstoppable and will take Ohio, Florida and Texas in November, likely handing HRC the humiliating defeat she'll have earned. Trump will not only transform the GOP but the Democrats as well.
9
Clifford, you gave me the first big laugh of the day!! Sure the GOP, party of family values supporting a thrice married guy, who does not know a truth if it hit him over the head, with no experience in working with others and no business smarts is just who you need to transform the GOP into a former party. Good one!
6
Okay, so that gets the Republicans up to 253-285. Besides Ohio and Florida, which states that went for Obama in 2012 does Trump win in 2016?
1
I'm old enough to remember when a Catholic was thought to be unelectable. Then along came Kennedy. Still, years ago divorced men were pariahs. Then along came Ronnie.
I marvel at how the thrice divorced Donnie gets away with trading in the old wives for newer models with no conscience. He pushes the envelope on moral values. He is like a train wreck that no one is capable of stopping.
I marvel at how the thrice divorced Donnie gets away with trading in the old wives for newer models with no conscience. He pushes the envelope on moral values. He is like a train wreck that no one is capable of stopping.
Donald J. Trump will be the Republican nominee. That is the inevitable course of coming events. But that's not the big news. The big news is what comes next.
The Tea Party was the initial rebellion of Republican Party faithful to demonstrate their total frustration with establishment Republicans in Washington. They were looking for outsiders who would turn the rotten system upside down. What they got was chaos, rookie obstructionism and outright stupidity.
Trump is merely the second coming, the newer revolution. They are fed up with the small time rookies in the Tea Party and this time want to start from scratch to fix this, and at the top, with the BIG ROOKIE. And along came Trump. Trump 's arrival on the political scene was a masterly stroke of lucky timing, (right guy, right place, right time).
So far so good. But the next step is crucial. What is a Trump Republican presidential candidacy going to do to the numerous state elections involving local Republicans now associated and in the coat tails of the larger windbag? Will they go down in flames in the Hillary victory? Will Trump be the Democrats godsend? Only seven more months to know that answer.
And equally intriguing, it's almost time to see the Republican old timers, not the rookies, but the seasoned windbags, (Mitch McConnel & others) start to look for ways to stick one leg under the Trump umbrella, (you know, just in case he wins, wink, wink).
Rookies and windbags, surely a winning team.
The Tea Party was the initial rebellion of Republican Party faithful to demonstrate their total frustration with establishment Republicans in Washington. They were looking for outsiders who would turn the rotten system upside down. What they got was chaos, rookie obstructionism and outright stupidity.
Trump is merely the second coming, the newer revolution. They are fed up with the small time rookies in the Tea Party and this time want to start from scratch to fix this, and at the top, with the BIG ROOKIE. And along came Trump. Trump 's arrival on the political scene was a masterly stroke of lucky timing, (right guy, right place, right time).
So far so good. But the next step is crucial. What is a Trump Republican presidential candidacy going to do to the numerous state elections involving local Republicans now associated and in the coat tails of the larger windbag? Will they go down in flames in the Hillary victory? Will Trump be the Democrats godsend? Only seven more months to know that answer.
And equally intriguing, it's almost time to see the Republican old timers, not the rookies, but the seasoned windbags, (Mitch McConnel & others) start to look for ways to stick one leg under the Trump umbrella, (you know, just in case he wins, wink, wink).
Rookies and windbags, surely a winning team.
15
Dear God,
Please save us!!!
Please save us!!!
9
I'm Canadian, and have been watching the Republican nomination process with flabbergasted-ness. Realizing how many Americans support Trump is like finding out that your best friend has been cheating on his spouse: he's not the man you thought he was.
32
Think of him as our Henry VIII.
1
From an editorial point of view, it is nice to read:
■ An upset. Mr. Trump could squeak out a win in a state where he’s thought to be an underdog, like Montana. It’s not likely — that’s why he’s an underdog. But it’s not impossible.
"squeak out" (correct) instead of the usually badly misued "eke out" that many editors let squeak by in recent years.
Yeah, it's a nit, but I think imporant. Obviously.
Naf Vet/techie retiree @ 86 & counting
■ An upset. Mr. Trump could squeak out a win in a state where he’s thought to be an underdog, like Montana. It’s not likely — that’s why he’s an underdog. But it’s not impossible.
"squeak out" (correct) instead of the usually badly misued "eke out" that many editors let squeak by in recent years.
Yeah, it's a nit, but I think imporant. Obviously.
Naf Vet/techie retiree @ 86 & counting
8
Even with all of his flaws Trump is not as scary as Cruz.
Trump or Clinton. What a choice..
Trump or Clinton. What a choice..
16
Yes, if either of those two becomes president, please save me a spot up in the woods.
3
So the upshot of the "Upshot" piece is that Trump has a chance but might or might not achieve the magic number of 1,237 depending on a variety of variables. As Chris Berman likes to say on ESPN, "That's why they play the games."
1
It's clear that neither party really wants the nominee detrrmined through transparent democratic processes. Between the staggering of primaries, super delegates, and winner take alls, the system is rigged for the party elites.
3
People often confuse the parties with organelles of the democratic process. The parties serve themselves by utilizing the democratic process. Everyone is free to form their own party. Many people do, albeit unsuccessfully.
Perhaps the real problem is our method of representation? "Winner take all" drives everything toward polarization. Perhaps we need a more parliamentary style system where when a party wins 5% of the vote they get 5% of the seats when a representative chamber?
Or, we could resort to approval voting. That's where each candidate gets a checkbox by their name. Each voter may vote for as many candidates as they wish. The candidate with the most check boxes by their name, wins.
That would drive everyone toward the middle instead of toward polarization.
Perhaps the real problem is our method of representation? "Winner take all" drives everything toward polarization. Perhaps we need a more parliamentary style system where when a party wins 5% of the vote they get 5% of the seats when a representative chamber?
Or, we could resort to approval voting. That's where each candidate gets a checkbox by their name. Each voter may vote for as many candidates as they wish. The candidate with the most check boxes by their name, wins.
That would drive everyone toward the middle instead of toward polarization.
3
And would you want the CEO of a company elected by the employees? The Board of Directors is composed of a bunch of the super delegates.
1
Michael Collins, I love that unusual use of "organelle".
2
As a New Yorker, I am so proud to land a knock out punch on Rafael (Ted) Cruz.
After what this guy said about New Yorkers he was lucky to get out of our state without tar and feathers.
I am not a fan of Trump but it gave me great pleasure to see him beat this guy.
After what this guy said about New Yorkers he was lucky to get out of our state without tar and feathers.
I am not a fan of Trump but it gave me great pleasure to see him beat this guy.
48
I grew up in the MidWest, mom and dad from Iowa, school in Annapolis and then around the world courtesy of the Marine Corps. What have I learned?
I'll take New York values over narrow-minded bigotry any day. What a great place with some amazing people.
I'll take New York values over narrow-minded bigotry any day. What a great place with some amazing people.
8
Just got a Trump email here in New Mexico with urgent instructions on becoming a 'self-selecting' delegate to the State GOP convention...
Very strange. But they are hitting New Mexico hard.
...Attend your Republican County Convention this weekend and next week, and inform the organizers that you want to be selected to attend the State Convention!
Attached to this e-mail is a list of New Mexico’s County Conventions dates, times, and locations.
There is a nominal fee to attend the County Conventions – no more than $300.00.
You must be a registered Republican to attend your county convention.
Forms:
Delegate_Self-Nominating_Form.pdf
County_Republican_Party_Conventions.pdf...
Very strange. But they are hitting New Mexico hard.
...Attend your Republican County Convention this weekend and next week, and inform the organizers that you want to be selected to attend the State Convention!
Attached to this e-mail is a list of New Mexico’s County Conventions dates, times, and locations.
There is a nominal fee to attend the County Conventions – no more than $300.00.
You must be a registered Republican to attend your county convention.
Forms:
Delegate_Self-Nominating_Form.pdf
County_Republican_Party_Conventions.pdf...
4
A contested convention would be a novelty but it could also be the final postscript for a Republican Party that is teetering on the brink of extinction. If Donald Trump can win the nomination outright prior to the convention it will be a kinder, gentler death for the GOP; more akin to euthanasia.
26
Extinction? They still hold both houses of Congress, and have the power and hubris to refuse to hold hearings on a Supreme Court nominee. And our Democrats have a likely nominee with a dauntingly high disapproval rating. Don't count those dinosaur chicks before they're hatched.
2
This election season has exposed the public to the fact that the procedures for picking presidential nominees adds up to a process that is barely democratic ands very chaotic. The rules, particularly in the Republican party, are arcane and slanted to deny any "marginal" or insurgent candidate from getting the nomination. These rules are a major reason that the Republicans, again and again, have nominated the sons of old wealth with, generally, some aspect of the old eastern establishment in their blood. Even G.W. Bush, supposedly from Texas while educated at Andover and Ivy colleges, was, in fact, the grandchild of a U.S. Senator from New England. At minimum, a Republican nominee has to be someone around for 20 to 30 yrs. (Dole. McCain, etc.)
While the rules for the nominating processes were not the product of a single person, it is clear the guiding principle was "Don't let things to get out of hand". Ha! This year, they have.
The same applies in different form to the Democrats. We have in Hillary Clinton a probable nominee whose unpopularity with a majority of citizens is only exceeded by that of Cruz and Trump. This is downright pathetic and reflection of the lack of deep citizen participation. The Democrats look like a dying party of aging leaders in Congress, fewer and fewer governors around the country and a looming nominee many people don't like.
When will we vow to change and do better? How about right now, this year, moving forward with 2020 in mind?
Doug Terry
While the rules for the nominating processes were not the product of a single person, it is clear the guiding principle was "Don't let things to get out of hand". Ha! This year, they have.
The same applies in different form to the Democrats. We have in Hillary Clinton a probable nominee whose unpopularity with a majority of citizens is only exceeded by that of Cruz and Trump. This is downright pathetic and reflection of the lack of deep citizen participation. The Democrats look like a dying party of aging leaders in Congress, fewer and fewer governors around the country and a looming nominee many people don't like.
When will we vow to change and do better? How about right now, this year, moving forward with 2020 in mind?
Doug Terry
18
Republicans are voting for Trump in almost every jurisdiction, and while he may not get the delegates to win flat out before the convention, he’ll be darn close. And Republicans have absolutely no one else to blame for choosing this guy to represent them as President.
How proud Republicans must be. Trump has a racist, insular attitude towards all immigrants and anyone who is not Caucasian, has repeatedly and forcefully degraded, disrespected and cheated on women (including his multiple wives and countless women who he has no relationship with) throughout his entire lifetime, has shown poor judgment in his many costly business failures, has never served in elected office, never worked out complex social issues through coordinated, careful and respectful efforts to work with folks of all walks of life, has no qualms about making up facts, and is constantly inconsistent in his positions on key issues. And that is the guy the strong majority of Republican voters want to be president.
Gov. Kasich is smart as a whip, has a super record of cutting taxes and costs, and works well with both sides of the aisle. He has a refreshingly candid approach to issues, responds to and doesn't dodge questions, and has a great sense of humor. But Republican voters totally reject this fine person and leader, since Republicans have essentially chosen who they want as leader – the racist, disrespectful, lying, stupid, unthinking, cad named Trump. Live with this choice, Republicans.
How proud Republicans must be. Trump has a racist, insular attitude towards all immigrants and anyone who is not Caucasian, has repeatedly and forcefully degraded, disrespected and cheated on women (including his multiple wives and countless women who he has no relationship with) throughout his entire lifetime, has shown poor judgment in his many costly business failures, has never served in elected office, never worked out complex social issues through coordinated, careful and respectful efforts to work with folks of all walks of life, has no qualms about making up facts, and is constantly inconsistent in his positions on key issues. And that is the guy the strong majority of Republican voters want to be president.
Gov. Kasich is smart as a whip, has a super record of cutting taxes and costs, and works well with both sides of the aisle. He has a refreshingly candid approach to issues, responds to and doesn't dodge questions, and has a great sense of humor. But Republican voters totally reject this fine person and leader, since Republicans have essentially chosen who they want as leader – the racist, disrespectful, lying, stupid, unthinking, cad named Trump. Live with this choice, Republicans.
29
I suggest you talk, respectfully, with a Trump supporter and ask why she or he supports Trump. Talking with real people helps get rid of stereotypes.
10
ED.... you sound like all the rest of the "headline" cowboys. Your rant of vague accusations provides enough proof that you are as uninformed as most Trump bashers and are simply here to complain and promote your candidate who is not even closely in a position to make a run at the nomination. Gov Kasich has shown his true establishment colors the past few months.
Trump fan or not, not giving Trump the nomination is risky , to say the least, for the Republican party. They will essentially destroy the party. Given the pompous, egotistical attitude of the establishment leaders, I would not be surprised if that happened just out of shear pride. What a disappointment the GOP has been.
Trump fan or not, not giving Trump the nomination is risky , to say the least, for the Republican party. They will essentially destroy the party. Given the pompous, egotistical attitude of the establishment leaders, I would not be surprised if that happened just out of shear pride. What a disappointment the GOP has been.
3
I concur with a great deal of what has been said here with one major disagreement. While Kasich has handled himself in a very dignified manner as compared to his opponents it really hasn't taken much effort given how seriously flawed they are.
Where I have a significant disagreement is the total lack of acknowledgment of where Kasich stands on key issues. What shall we discuss?, Women's rights and freedom of choice?, Gun control?, Likely Supreme Court nominees?, Global warming?
I know where Kasich stands on these issues because I did a little research. He hasn't had to justify any of his positions on these issues and others given the character of the debates so far.
When you take the time to drill down however on just where he stands, well, I say heaping all of the accolades above on him is going more than just a bit too far.
Where I have a significant disagreement is the total lack of acknowledgment of where Kasich stands on key issues. What shall we discuss?, Women's rights and freedom of choice?, Gun control?, Likely Supreme Court nominees?, Global warming?
I know where Kasich stands on these issues because I did a little research. He hasn't had to justify any of his positions on these issues and others given the character of the debates so far.
When you take the time to drill down however on just where he stands, well, I say heaping all of the accolades above on him is going more than just a bit too far.
17
I think the "quantifiers" have been significantly underestimating the pressure that uncommitted Pennsylvania delegates will face to support the winner of the primary, or at least the winner in their local districts.
That pressure will come from two sides: it will be both "moral" (honestly reflect the will of your voters) *and* Trump-style bullying and intimidation. Unlike elsewhere, they won't be able to hide behind party caucuses or other inscrutable apparatuses: they will be standing individually, right next to their own voters' results. And many of them hope to have a local political future.
With Cruz looking as weak as he does nationally, they won't stand up to those strong winds. If Trump wins by several points, which seems highly likely, he'll pick up at least 25 or 30 of those uncommitted delegates, possibly more. Given Cruz's current weakness, Kasich's microscopic revival in the northeast, and the collapse of the traditional party establishment, my guess is Trump will overperform in PA both in terms of votes and delegates.
That pressure will come from two sides: it will be both "moral" (honestly reflect the will of your voters) *and* Trump-style bullying and intimidation. Unlike elsewhere, they won't be able to hide behind party caucuses or other inscrutable apparatuses: they will be standing individually, right next to their own voters' results. And many of them hope to have a local political future.
With Cruz looking as weak as he does nationally, they won't stand up to those strong winds. If Trump wins by several points, which seems highly likely, he'll pick up at least 25 or 30 of those uncommitted delegates, possibly more. Given Cruz's current weakness, Kasich's microscopic revival in the northeast, and the collapse of the traditional party establishment, my guess is Trump will overperform in PA both in terms of votes and delegates.
13
Is America still a Democratic Republic, and it would be interesting to know the thoughts of Alexis de Tocqueville on whether Democracy could work in America in the times we live? In 2012, I placed some flowers on the grave of his childhood friend, a first cousin in France, whispering Democracy is well and alive.
Typing political speeches, taking the coats of Republican and Democratic guests visiting an honorable economist for advice in the 80s and 90s does not make one a politician.
Our Country reminds this American of an elderly and cherished relation on whom one depends, resting in bed after an accident and still ailing. The vote is out on whether recuperation is in sight. Trump, according to some staunch Republicans, apparently is not the right thing. They feel more comfortable with Cruz and his 'moderate' views.
Sanders has opened the eyes of some Americans as to what needs to be done to bring solvency and health, new blood and energy so to speak to benefit 'The Patient'. He is also causing a divide among the Democratic party with fervor and faith, while I rest my case with Hillary Clinton. It is not because she is a woman either, but because she is steadfast. No time to weep, but time to rise and say a prayer on the wings of a hawk.
Typing political speeches, taking the coats of Republican and Democratic guests visiting an honorable economist for advice in the 80s and 90s does not make one a politician.
Our Country reminds this American of an elderly and cherished relation on whom one depends, resting in bed after an accident and still ailing. The vote is out on whether recuperation is in sight. Trump, according to some staunch Republicans, apparently is not the right thing. They feel more comfortable with Cruz and his 'moderate' views.
Sanders has opened the eyes of some Americans as to what needs to be done to bring solvency and health, new blood and energy so to speak to benefit 'The Patient'. He is also causing a divide among the Democratic party with fervor and faith, while I rest my case with Hillary Clinton. It is not because she is a woman either, but because she is steadfast. No time to weep, but time to rise and say a prayer on the wings of a hawk.
10
Hawks or war is not the answer. No blood for oil. No more Iraq wars.
2
There have been professional sports teams, with with miserable records as the season nears its end, who appear to aspire to finish in the cellar to insure a top draft pick in the off-season. Is there some kind of metaphor there for the GOP?
8
Actually this has been happening for quite a while, unfortunately those most attracted to the Republican are similar to Ted, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum and rest on their Conservative laurels. When the Republican party wises up about their revered, demented bad actor, there might be some hope for new thinking (my opinion).
'Til then?
'Til then?
3
In reply to Mitch Smith: You may be right about the danger of denying Trump the nomination if he comes to the GOP convention with more pledged delegates than anyone else, but denying Sanders the nomination--who, so far, is more than 200 pledged delegates behind and got 2.4 million votes fewer than Hilary--is perfectly consistent with reason and fairness.
35
Yes I agree. Clinton will be the nominee, I have no problem with that. I regret that came across as such. My mention of Sanders was only to point out that he is highlighting the same issues as Trump.
It is a national movement that crosses party lines.
Campaign financing / free trade / big money influence in politics etc.
But certainly Clinton has a huge lead on Sanders and has the majority support of Democrat voters, just as Trump does on the GOP side...
It is a national movement that crosses party lines.
Campaign financing / free trade / big money influence in politics etc.
But certainly Clinton has a huge lead on Sanders and has the majority support of Democrat voters, just as Trump does on the GOP side...
3
Mitch, Trump has the most support of the current GOP candidates. But he doesn't have a majority. And he is held in low esteem by most Republicans. At least now. Could he change that by moderating his tone? I guess we'll find out (as I think he already has).
LPR
LPR
I don't support Donald Trump but denying him the nomination is extremely risky. Regardless of the party rules, in politics perception is reality. If Trump is denied at the convention that will plant a seed in the minds of millions of Americans that Democracy is dead in the Republic.
This is extremely dangerous in a nation with a 2nd Amendment.
Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders (for that matter) have laid bare serious domestic issues that are a direct result of the Pax Americana policy umbrella under which both Republican and Democrat Presidents have operated under since the end of the Cold War.
The very democratic structure of America is under enormous strain for the simple reason that a Democracy is not designed to rule the world. A democratic system is designed to reflect the will of the people of that nation and if tasked with acting in the best interests of the entire world will result in political paradoxes and paralyzation.
Sanders and Trump have taken to task globalization on several levels and found a massive following. Free Trade has grown the economy overall but only to concentrate the wealth in the top 1%. Millions of working class Americans are worse off today than they were 20 years ago despite working harder.
As Trump and Sanders try to find the words of a new "Fortress America" policy structure vs the internationalist "Pax Americana" to deny them is to deny Democracy in favor of an Oligarchy of elitist rulers who know best.
Don't do it...
This is extremely dangerous in a nation with a 2nd Amendment.
Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders (for that matter) have laid bare serious domestic issues that are a direct result of the Pax Americana policy umbrella under which both Republican and Democrat Presidents have operated under since the end of the Cold War.
The very democratic structure of America is under enormous strain for the simple reason that a Democracy is not designed to rule the world. A democratic system is designed to reflect the will of the people of that nation and if tasked with acting in the best interests of the entire world will result in political paradoxes and paralyzation.
Sanders and Trump have taken to task globalization on several levels and found a massive following. Free Trade has grown the economy overall but only to concentrate the wealth in the top 1%. Millions of working class Americans are worse off today than they were 20 years ago despite working harder.
As Trump and Sanders try to find the words of a new "Fortress America" policy structure vs the internationalist "Pax Americana" to deny them is to deny Democracy in favor of an Oligarchy of elitist rulers who know best.
Don't do it...
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The irony that Trump and Sanders have more in common than any other two in the race is lost on everyone, even their supporters.
In the end, I'll be voting for whichever one of them gets the nomination. My only hard choice will be if they both get it. This doesn't look very likely, as Hillary is beating Bernie at the moment and his path to winning has narrowed considerably. Yes, he could still win. But before New York, so could Ted Cruz, and we saw how that turned out.
I could never vote for Hillary or Cruz because they both love free trade and globalization. Both of which are revolting concepts that serve only the richest americans, which would be fine, but it serves them at the expense of every other american... which is not so fine.
In the end, I'll be voting for whichever one of them gets the nomination. My only hard choice will be if they both get it. This doesn't look very likely, as Hillary is beating Bernie at the moment and his path to winning has narrowed considerably. Yes, he could still win. But before New York, so could Ted Cruz, and we saw how that turned out.
I could never vote for Hillary or Cruz because they both love free trade and globalization. Both of which are revolting concepts that serve only the richest americans, which would be fine, but it serves them at the expense of every other american... which is not so fine.
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