I hope Trump earns a complete sweep of delegates in New York based on the popular vote! I am frustrated hearing about Cruz sweeping all of the delegates in Colorado and Wyoming with zero votes from their citizens.
Can you tell us how many actual voters voted for each candidate - across both parties? This might give a clue as to the direction of the general election. If Trump wins New York, but gets only 1/2 the votes of the Democratic candidates, that tells us something about their relative strengths. It would also be interesting to know the total Democratic and Republican votes in each state primary.
Using primary vote counts to divine the results of the general election is difficult if not impossible. Many states, I believe NY is one of them, prohibit persons registered in one party from voting in a primary of another party. So the missing ingredient is the crossover vote which could be huge (no pun intended) if Trump is the Republican nominee.
Trump won in Mass this way. There are only a few Republicans left in that state, all members of the following families: Adams, Lodge, Lowell, Lawrence, Saltinstall, Cabot. They got together and decided to vote for Trump because JEB Bush was indeed low energy and was from Maine, but some cousins rebelled and scattered their votes for the others in the race.
I think it makes sense to vote for Kasich, even if he can only win a few delegates. Just think, if four out of the six living Republicans in upper Manhattan vote for the governor, he could win three delegates up there. I predict he will win two delegates in the wealthy 12th District.
I think it makes sense to vote for Kasich, even if he can only win a few delegates. Just think, if four out of the six living Republicans in upper Manhattan vote for the governor, he could win three delegates up there. I predict he will win two delegates in the wealthy 12th District.
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The game should be played within the rules already set. The fear is that everyone in the Party high-ups, many journalists or so-called pundits are doing their personal bits to frustrate the game being played by the rules. In any event, Trump is not an uneducated wild animal/alien, and if he wins with the popular support, it does not mean the end of our system of living. On the other hand, his win will be cathartic for all of us -- which is badly needed! Go Trump, if you can persuade the majority of our people!
2
On the republican side, I can't imagine Trump not winning, and winning big. Its not that he's loved- he isn't. But Cruz is not only despised, he openly stated that he despises us. I know, there's always Kasich, but is there really?
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northern Europe, Never in recent history has there been an election more fixated on the ethnic make-up of the electorate. Catholic, Protestant, Northern Europe, Southern Europe.... Program is irrelevant, except in the case of Clinton: she is down in the weeds. The Bern just hands out money that does not exist. Tis a mess and no one moves beyond small prejudices.
Much more complex than described here. In Manhattan West Side, why would anyone register as a Republican, since this party never wins a state or congressional election. Even if they are conservative, it makes sense to register as a Democrat so you can nominate the worse candidate, or the the best in your eyes. It doesn't matter which Republican gets the nomination, as there is no chance of winning.
This is reversed in some up state counties. So, this is difficult to predict, with every state having different rules of independents voting for a given party, truisms don't work. And Trump is mesmerizing, he is the savior which is a different dimension that is not part of the usually political calculus. It's really his magnetic effect on the given individual voter, something hard to generalize.
AlRodbell.com
This is reversed in some up state counties. So, this is difficult to predict, with every state having different rules of independents voting for a given party, truisms don't work. And Trump is mesmerizing, he is the savior which is a different dimension that is not part of the usually political calculus. It's really his magnetic effect on the given individual voter, something hard to generalize.
AlRodbell.com
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Ted Cruz lies from both sides of his mouth. How can you claim to be anti-Establishment, while having half a dozen Super PACS? The guy is so dishonest, none of his fellow Senators like him. Can you imagine what sort of person can get nearly all of his coworkers to hate him so much they would rather back a hashtag (#NEVERTRUMP) than him, a fellow Senator and the last viable candidate? Imagine the personality of someone so widely hated in your workplace, and that's Ted Cruz.
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My dream scenario - GOP edition:
Trumps loses to Cruz at chaotic convention. GOP in open civil war. Trump vows independent run.
Cruz is crushed at Nov general, in a sweep: WH, Senate, House.
GOP establishment disavows Tea Party and TP forms independent party.
By 2020 you have a traditional establishment GOP and a Koch controlled TP splitting the conservative ranks.
Dems continue winning.
Trump goes bankrupt. Cruz just goes away.
Make it "perfect"? Bernie wins Dem nomination, opening up a 100 years era of peace and prosperity, the Golden Age.
Gotta dream!
Trumps loses to Cruz at chaotic convention. GOP in open civil war. Trump vows independent run.
Cruz is crushed at Nov general, in a sweep: WH, Senate, House.
GOP establishment disavows Tea Party and TP forms independent party.
By 2020 you have a traditional establishment GOP and a Koch controlled TP splitting the conservative ranks.
Dems continue winning.
Trump goes bankrupt. Cruz just goes away.
Make it "perfect"? Bernie wins Dem nomination, opening up a 100 years era of peace and prosperity, the Golden Age.
Gotta dream!
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Dream on.
If Bernie wins and Trump's supporters are disaffected, you'd be just as likely to see the Democratic Party fracture (or, more probably, a "realignment" of some voters between parties) as the scenario that you lay out.
If Bernie wins and Trump's supporters are disaffected, you'd be just as likely to see the Democratic Party fracture (or, more probably, a "realignment" of some voters between parties) as the scenario that you lay out.
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PLEASE EXPLAIN how GOP Convention goes beyond 1 ballot w/ Rule 40b
Only candidates with 50%+ in at least 8 states can be voted on
That's just Trump & Cruz
With only 2 candidates eligible, they either tie, or one of them gets the majority 1237+
Only candidates with 50%+ in at least 8 states can be voted on
That's just Trump & Cruz
With only 2 candidates eligible, they either tie, or one of them gets the majority 1237+
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I'll explain. They'll change the rules.
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Janet's answer is possible, but even without that change neither may get 1,237 on the first ballot.
Per Jonathan Bernstein at Bloomberg View: "This third group of delegates doesn't have to vote for Cruz at the convention to stop Trump. They can vote for Kasich, Rubio or Mickey Mouse for that matter. If the 2012 Republican rules and precedents remain the same, their votes will not be formally recorded, but they will count as numbers withheld from Trump or Cruz in the two men's quest to hit the 1,237 target." http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-04-13/a-plan-c-candidate-can-...
And my understanding is that state rules generally still bind these pledged delegates to vote for Kasich or Rubio unless the candidate releases them.
Per Jonathan Bernstein at Bloomberg View: "This third group of delegates doesn't have to vote for Cruz at the convention to stop Trump. They can vote for Kasich, Rubio or Mickey Mouse for that matter. If the 2012 Republican rules and precedents remain the same, their votes will not be formally recorded, but they will count as numbers withheld from Trump or Cruz in the two men's quest to hit the 1,237 target." http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-04-13/a-plan-c-candidate-can-...
And my understanding is that state rules generally still bind these pledged delegates to vote for Kasich or Rubio unless the candidate releases them.
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Thanks Dave for that link, however looking at it, and about 50 other places, I haven't been convinced that what Jonathan Bernstein says is true. No other source agrees (or disagrees) with it.
Every reading I see indicates that on the 1st ballot every delegate must vote for the candidate they are pledged for
AND, I don't see any other source suggesting that unbound delegates will have the option to vote for any candidate who doesn't pass the hurdle of 40B
Every reading I see indicates that on the 1st ballot every delegate must vote for the candidate they are pledged for
AND, I don't see any other source suggesting that unbound delegates will have the option to vote for any candidate who doesn't pass the hurdle of 40B
But what about them Dems?
Your Upshot published a set of "poll averages" in a number of states before the WI vote. Bernie was said to be ahead by 5%. He did 10% better than that. Shouldn't we adjust the polling "bias" by 10 points everywhere then?
The NY polls have the landline bias, favoring older (Clinton) voters, and the "most likely voters" skewing....unfortunately polls are used to try to INFLUENCE the vote, rather than report (and as any 200 survey course kid can tell you, being able to know how to get a skewing is part of the deal).
News heads continue to pretend the last poll up shows movement, rather than a difference in samples....suddenly with the incredibly unreliable Murdock media polls a few days ago, Hillary was surging to 18 or more, now down to 10 (if she wins 53-47 it will be lucky).
Your Upshot published a set of "poll averages" in a number of states before the WI vote. Bernie was said to be ahead by 5%. He did 10% better than that. Shouldn't we adjust the polling "bias" by 10 points everywhere then?
The NY polls have the landline bias, favoring older (Clinton) voters, and the "most likely voters" skewing....unfortunately polls are used to try to INFLUENCE the vote, rather than report (and as any 200 survey course kid can tell you, being able to know how to get a skewing is part of the deal).
News heads continue to pretend the last poll up shows movement, rather than a difference in samples....suddenly with the incredibly unreliable Murdock media polls a few days ago, Hillary was surging to 18 or more, now down to 10 (if she wins 53-47 it will be lucky).
Bravo to Nate Cohn.
This is probably the most journalistic-neutral article I have read the entire campaign, and it is full of good information about the reality facing New York in a week. I am sure all the country will be interested in what he writes here - whatever their voter preference.
Thank you; it comes just at a time when I was losing all confidence in the Times ability to see beyond the hype and report the way we used to do it!
This is probably the most journalistic-neutral article I have read the entire campaign, and it is full of good information about the reality facing New York in a week. I am sure all the country will be interested in what he writes here - whatever their voter preference.
Thank you; it comes just at a time when I was losing all confidence in the Times ability to see beyond the hype and report the way we used to do it!
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“What fresh hell can this be?”
--- Dorothy Parker’s way of responding whenever there was a knock at her front door, and my way of responding whenever
I see Donald Trump or Ted Cruz on TV.
--- Dorothy Parker’s way of responding whenever there was a knock at her front door, and my way of responding whenever
I see Donald Trump or Ted Cruz on TV.
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Can Trump beat the Koch Brothers' $ fueled Cruz?
As much as I dislike The Donald, I fear Cruz more. Anyone who would shut down the government, not pay our debts and threaten our nation's credit rating is REALLY scary.
As much as I dislike The Donald, I fear Cruz more. Anyone who would shut down the government, not pay our debts and threaten our nation's credit rating is REALLY scary.
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You really need to be deprogrammed.
Beats Cruz, by far. Proof? Try this … http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/04/ted-cruz-dildo-ban-sex-devic...
I'm a NY independent (center-right) living in LI who would love to vote republican so I can vote against Trump - I would probably vote for Kasich. Trump is irresponsible, offensive and he has zero public service experience. He's also dangerous.
I have taken an informal pole of people like me as to how they would vote in the general election between Clinton and Trump. Clinton wins - but most say they just won't vote.
I have taken an informal pole of people like me as to how they would vote in the general election between Clinton and Trump. Clinton wins - but most say they just won't vote.
1
There's a lot of scenarios in this. Best scenario though, Trump takes the GOP down to a historic defeat in November.
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Here, here. The fading memory of Goldwater's crushing defeat needs to be refreshed in order to sideline the Tea party nuts for a few decades. And only Cruze or Trump candidacy can make that defeat possible. Can't wait:).
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If I lived in NY I would vote for Trump.
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That's a funny way of putting it. Whom did or will you vote for?
Amazing that highly educated, highly sophisticated New York would vote Donald Trump.
5
People are educated should realize Cruz is a religious zealot and Kasich is a liar.
2
Trump winning the primary in NY is like Hillary winning the primary in NC. Neither would win a general election in those states.
As you say, NY has highly educated, highly sophisticated voters: so they vote for the Democrats! Please wake up and smell the roses!
As you say, NY has highly educated, highly sophisticated voters: so they vote for the Democrats! Please wake up and smell the roses!
8
Don't be so sure about North Carolina: Obama won it in 2008 and barely lost it in 2012 despite not even campaigning there.
North Carolina is trending blue, following Virginia's footsteps in the South.
North Carolina is trending blue, following Virginia's footsteps in the South.
1
I am a bit confused about needing 50% of the voters in "...heavily Democratic, well-educated or diverse stretches of New York City...." He only cares about GOP primary voters, correct? So if in a heavily Democratic district only five GOP voters turn out and Trump wins three of the five, he has his 50%, correct? If so, why even mention the Dems?
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Because their predictive model is based on census data that encompasses the entire population, no just one party. They're essentially saying that in areas with ultra high concentrations of Democratic voters, their model's predictive value is much lower, due to increased statistical error (small subset of population who are Republicans may deviate more from the standard).
1
The more Democrats in an area like Manhattan, the better Trump's chances of running the table.
1
Palm Beach and Boward county both heavily democratic and went for Trump:
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/fl/Rep?sr=nl_5things_020216...
http://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-st...
how big does the statistical have to be?
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/fl/Rep?sr=nl_5things_020216...
http://dos.myflorida.com/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-st...
how big does the statistical have to be?
A sad state of affairs indeed. It seems the good people don't want to run at all and we're stuck with a bunch of hacks for choices all around. We've already taken our place back as the laughing stock of the world. Let's hope this guy doesn't get into the White House and emblazon a giant trump marquee on top. What a joke.
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Whatever delegates Donald Trump fails to win might easily go to John Kasich. Although Trump's ineptitude in handling the nomination trench warfare, nobody should underestimate the ever-execrable Ted Cruz's capacity for raining on his own parade. "New York values" (wink, nod, sneer, spit)? We all know what THOSE are, do we not?
The thing is, Donald Trump is smart. Really smart. Really, really smart. It's tremendous how smart he is. Tremendous. So, so smart you wouldn't believe how smart he is. He has an uncle who was an MIT professor, so The Donald has smart genes.
Ted Cruz may not have The Donald's professorial uncle swimming in his private gene pool but he, too, is smart enough to torpedo his own prospects.
www.endthemadnessnow.org
The thing is, Donald Trump is smart. Really smart. Really, really smart. It's tremendous how smart he is. Tremendous. So, so smart you wouldn't believe how smart he is. He has an uncle who was an MIT professor, so The Donald has smart genes.
Ted Cruz may not have The Donald's professorial uncle swimming in his private gene pool but he, too, is smart enough to torpedo his own prospects.
www.endthemadnessnow.org
6
Another aspect of this contest not mentioned in the article is Ted Cruz's standing in the NY polls: last. Kasich is running second.
Trump could fail to sweep the NY delegates and the contest could still be a total bust for Cruz. Trump would still be at risk of a contested nomination but he would be putting more distance between himself and Cruz.
Trump could fail to sweep the NY delegates and the contest could still be a total bust for Cruz. Trump would still be at risk of a contested nomination but he would be putting more distance between himself and Cruz.
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Your last point doesn't matter. Cruz doesn't have a plausible chance of winning enough remaining delegates to get to 1,237 on the first ballot. The outcome will be either Trump on the first ballot or a contested convention. Delegates for either Cruz or Kasich make the latter outcome more likely. Distance between Trump and Cruz is largely irrelevant if Trump ends up short of 1,237.
1
Mr. Trump will do very well in NY. I do not see where his competition will come from. Mr. Cruz, not likely. Mr. Kasich, still not likely, though Kasich may do better than Cruz in this state. I will not vote for Donald Trump, but I know that among average GOP voters here in NYC, the Donald runs strong! Queens, not merely Staten Island, will give Trump many victories as well. Even the Bronx may do so! I have no sympathies for Trump, but I do not see how he would be denied the nomination without slapping the Republican electorate square in the face!
3
Well.......if he doesn't win every delegate in New York, he will probably sue someone because he will think it is rigged against him. When he doesn't get his way, he will try to sue someone and start crying and pouting like some three year old because he didn't get what he wanted, the spoiled brat.
34
Trump would be a disaster yet any democratic system that seems to ignore the votes of the people to allow a cabal of insiders alter the result by pushing delegates towards the loser is highly suspect, to put it mildly.
25
Wait - are you still talking Mr. Trump, or the 500+ "superdelegates" rigging the Democratic primaries against Mr. Sanders?
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Sanders is losing, with or without super delegates.
5
Let's hope not.
6
This is not particularly hard to figure out. Those educated elites who view Trump and his supporters with a dripping disdain should pay heed.
Expensive universities for the children of the great unwashed - assuming their public schools bothered to prepare them.
Low paying, mindless, soul crushing service jobs.
Ubiquitous police presences, even in suburban and rural areas, and utterly unaccountable civil service cadres, taking as much money from people as they can.
New York's crushing sales, income, and property taxes - while infrastructure rots and buckles and services are spotty, infrequent, and at best mediocre.
This is the political economy elites - on both the right and the left, though in NYS, primarily, the left - have handed our middle and working classes.
Sneer at them all your like. They still far outnumber us. They are very angry. And they have many valid points.
We can either reform our many governments, and let markets solve our problems, or we can watch addled, narcissistic demagogues like Trump or Sanders come closer and closer to leading the free world.
Expensive universities for the children of the great unwashed - assuming their public schools bothered to prepare them.
Low paying, mindless, soul crushing service jobs.
Ubiquitous police presences, even in suburban and rural areas, and utterly unaccountable civil service cadres, taking as much money from people as they can.
New York's crushing sales, income, and property taxes - while infrastructure rots and buckles and services are spotty, infrequent, and at best mediocre.
This is the political economy elites - on both the right and the left, though in NYS, primarily, the left - have handed our middle and working classes.
Sneer at them all your like. They still far outnumber us. They are very angry. And they have many valid points.
We can either reform our many governments, and let markets solve our problems, or we can watch addled, narcissistic demagogues like Trump or Sanders come closer and closer to leading the free world.
15
You have missed completely the appeal of Sanders and of Trump, in the latter's latest incarnation as the working man's friend.
Free market ideology requires that there be no barriers whatsoever to the free movement of people, goods and services, and currency around the world.
Free market ideology has already led to the loss of millions of blue collar jobs in the USA because the old American manufacturing jobs have moved overseas to PRC, Mexico, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia.
Free market ideology has led to the influx into the USA of millions of unskilled workers who compete with endogenous unskilled workers for unskilled jobs and drive down the wages of the unskilled.
At the same time, playing by the rules of the free market where almost anything goes, slick real estate salesmen like Trump have helped to drive up the cost of property to the point that only the superrich can now afford to buy their own home in central New York.
And your breathtakingly naive solution is to allow the markets to solve the USA's problems?
Free market ideology requires that there be no barriers whatsoever to the free movement of people, goods and services, and currency around the world.
Free market ideology has already led to the loss of millions of blue collar jobs in the USA because the old American manufacturing jobs have moved overseas to PRC, Mexico, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia.
Free market ideology has led to the influx into the USA of millions of unskilled workers who compete with endogenous unskilled workers for unskilled jobs and drive down the wages of the unskilled.
At the same time, playing by the rules of the free market where almost anything goes, slick real estate salesmen like Trump have helped to drive up the cost of property to the point that only the superrich can now afford to buy their own home in central New York.
And your breathtakingly naive solution is to allow the markets to solve the USA's problems?
13
The left and right are not equally at fault - the Koch network has pushed the center of the national conversation so far to the right that it only LOOKS that way. Your so-called 'crushing taxes' wouldn't be so crushing if more income had been distributed downward and more money was available to fund middle and lower-class needs.
Letting 'markets' solve our problems is just another addled idea from the Kochs' system of anarcho-libertarian phony think tanks. Sanders hits the nail on the head when he calls for raising taxes on the .01% - unlike Trump, he is not narcissistic nor is he a demagogue.
Letting 'markets' solve our problems is just another addled idea from the Kochs' system of anarcho-libertarian phony think tanks. Sanders hits the nail on the head when he calls for raising taxes on the .01% - unlike Trump, he is not narcissistic nor is he a demagogue.
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Colenso, thank you for today's U.S. civic lesson from Australia.
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