Like with Russia, Syria-Iran bond is tentative and geopolitical, not sectarian. Iran's absolutist Ayatollahs do not take kindly to Assad's secular rule or the Alawite heresy. Iran has had nuanced, complicated relations with India, Russia and Israel. Moral: Assad has no Russia card or Iran Card to play. If Iran and Russia are not threatened, an overall rapprochement can be reached with Russia and a honorable exit for Assad can be arranged.
3
"Over and over again in separate interviews, these people described a leadership that is expert in playing allies off one another; often refuses compromise, even when the chips appear to be down; and, if forced to make deals, delays and complicates them, playing for time until Mr. Assad’s situation improves." - NYTimes
I wonder where Assad learned these skills from.
I wonder where Assad learned these skills from.
2
Nothing like the ride that the Saudis are giving us in Yemen, where we have become enablers of war crimes.
On Syria, the spin from the White House appears to be, "Granted, we're mired, but the Russians are, too."
On Syria, the spin from the White House appears to be, "Granted, we're mired, but the Russians are, too."
5
The Russian relationship with Assad has a lot of similarities with Bosnia Serbia in the mid90's.
The increased U.S. intervention proposed by some in Syria is in direct relationship to probable pressure from Turkey’s Erdogan and Saudi Arabia. It’s clear that the foundation of this strategy is increasing the Sunni power in the region extremely weakened by the disastrous American intervention in Iraq shifting the Iraqi Sunni under Baath secular tradition to a militant Shi’ite empowerment clearly linked to Iran. It’s the perfect receipt for more disastrous results as the Sunni in Syria have morphed in jihadists and it’s no mystery that Al-Nusra and even ISIS capitalized from the countless islamic factions some of them receiving and transferring sophisticated weapons from U.S. through Turkey and Saudi Arabia to them. With the overthrown of the secular Baath tradition maintained by Assad, what faction would prevail and with which ideology? From the Sunni side it looks like there’s no much to select from.
3
this continues the infantile "analysis" we are offered about a bloody war that has as much to do with america and israel as disgruntled syrians and gives further indication that when all this horror is ended, assad, putin and the leaders of hezbollah and iran will be revealed as the only adults in positions of power. shameful but another sign of the disintegrating west which may be good news for the global majority but remains a threat to the people of the west as long as we are susceptible to this infantile consciousness control.
6
Hilarious. So much for Faux News narrative that Obama (whom the Right calls "feckless") got out foxed by Putin. Looks like the exact opposite is the case. Obama is the fox and Putin is the feckless.
5
Just because the New York Times tells us Putin got outfoxed by Assad doesn't mean Putin got outfoxed by Assad.
Let's face it: Russia made the US look bad, and the usual mouthpieces for the US government (including the Times, when the President is a Democrat) are trying to persuade us that something else happened.
Let's face it: Russia made the US look bad, and the usual mouthpieces for the US government (including the Times, when the President is a Democrat) are trying to persuade us that something else happened.
6
Anne Barnard provides rare and nuanced information about the nature of
Assad and Syrian politics. But she neglects to examine the motives and diplomacy of Putin and his crowd. Isn't it entirely likely that Putin played the power card in Syria to top up his support at home while at the same time undermining the U.S. as a reliable ally that draws red lines and ignores them?
Assad and Syrian politics. But she neglects to examine the motives and diplomacy of Putin and his crowd. Isn't it entirely likely that Putin played the power card in Syria to top up his support at home while at the same time undermining the U.S. as a reliable ally that draws red lines and ignores them?
1
The key insight is that the Arab Middle East is not ready for democracy. Democracy becomes Theocracy or plutocracy very quickly. Only strongmen seem to hold these disparate threads together. If only Assad had been willing to compromise at some point. Scorpions do not compromise. I think he should stay, in the weakened state he controls.
4
How exactly does the most qualified Presidential candidate plan to fix this situation, if given a second shot at it?
Protect Israel from aggressors, but beside that stop messing around with the Middle East. Western policy there the past several decades has created a regional Frankenstein comprised of parts of Iraq, Syria, Turkey, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Somalia, Afghanistan, Pakistan etc. etc. ad nauseam. Let them sort themselves out. We don't belong over there they are not our responsibility. Bad stuff happens over there despite our foreign policy leaders acting as sanctimonious global cops. We have enough societal and economic problems at home to deal with. If Trump's right on only one thing before he says something completely opposite, it's that we can't afford the cost of our misguided Middle Eastern adventures. The high costs are both economic and cultural, we're economically poorer at home and the rest of the world ends up hating us Americans.
It's in Europe and Asia's interests to see the oil taps keep flowing, if we pull out they'll take up the diplomatic slack for us, in their own interest, despite all the global talk of going green. Oil fuels their industry too.
It's in Europe and Asia's interests to see the oil taps keep flowing, if we pull out they'll take up the diplomatic slack for us, in their own interest, despite all the global talk of going green. Oil fuels their industry too.
3
The end of the scorpion frog story is that the frog asks, "Why did you do that? Now, we will both drown." And the frog answers, "I couldn't help it. It's my nature." Not really a great analogy for this duo. Assad and Putin have similar natures. We just have short memories (but think, e.g., second Chechen War, various assassinations typical of FSB).
1
What a hash the article makes of the scorpion and frog fable. See Orson Welles' Mr. Arkadin for the real story. The scorpion convinces the frog to ferry him across the river. But you will sting me, says the frog. No, says the scorpion because then we will both die. Half way across, the scorpion stings the frog. Why, asks the frog. Because, the scorpion explains, it is in my nature.
The fable does not apply. Assad and Putin are not metaphors. They are murderers.
The fable does not apply. Assad and Putin are not metaphors. They are murderers.
5
Ah, yes, the murderous al-Asad and Putin and the saintly USA and Israel with regard to mass murder, mayhem and destruction. Please learn a thing or two about reality outside the endless propaganda on this and related topics emitted by all mainstream media.
8
No wonder Assad ignored Obama's red line. And the Russians are still laughing about Hillary's reset button. Imagine where we might be if we didn't insist on Assad leaving Syria, maybe ISIL would not be such a force if we really supported the fight against them.
5
Syria's importance to Russia stems from the base there. The rest is just "normal" Middle Eastern game playing, where everyone plays each other and means only half of what is said and all of what is never said. It's a charade of manipulations and deceits.
Russia seems to have gotten what it needed there; meanwhile, we created a "win" (ending chemical weapon usage) and hoped no one noticed our hasty retreat.
It's way too complicated a game for Obama to play. And unlike Putin, he's not the type to go out on a limb with no one out in front to break his fall, which is where he found himself with his "red line" threat (and why he retreated so quickly).
Obama is risk averse, and he certainly wasn't risking anything on Syria.
Russia seems to have gotten what it needed there; meanwhile, we created a "win" (ending chemical weapon usage) and hoped no one noticed our hasty retreat.
It's way too complicated a game for Obama to play. And unlike Putin, he's not the type to go out on a limb with no one out in front to break his fall, which is where he found himself with his "red line" threat (and why he retreated so quickly).
Obama is risk averse, and he certainly wasn't risking anything on Syria.
2
It is too bad that we did not take Russia up on their offer to negotiate a peace deal back in 2012.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/15/west-ignored-russian-offer-...
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/15/west-ignored-russian-offer-...
4
President Obama seems correct not to involve us into another regional quagmire. Our regional allies (the term needs to be redefined) always want us to fight their enemies; bomb them into submission;shed our blood and money; take responsibility of the outcome, so that at the end they can walk in and establish their dominance in the region. But, why should we do that when these allies themselves aren't any better than the dictators they wish to topple? How will entering and getting stuck into another quagmire in the middle east, establish our leadership position? And most importantly, how will that benefit us in creating more jobs or achieving economic growth? Enough of fighting wars which don't benefit us even a bit. Getting directly involved in toppling regimes doesn't make us any more secure. SO let's keep our guard up, and get back to work (Economy).
12
Most if not all of rest of the world is disgusted with Assad, and most Syrians would surely have long since dragged him into the streets and torn him to shreds had the Great Powers allowed it--and this would have been the case were it not for the rise of something worse. Getting rid of him (or merely letting his regime collapse) would likely allow ISIS to dominate all of Syria, much as they rose in Iraq after the US deposed Saddam Hussein in the naive belief that we could transform than nation into some kind of "little America".
4
Scary thought!
The more relevant fable is the one I just made up:
The exhausted scorpion who convinces another scorpion to give him a piggy/scorpion-back ride.
The exhausted scorpion who convinces another scorpion to give him a piggy/scorpion-back ride.
1
Let the Russians take this on. Let them sort out the warring parties. Let them provide humanitarian assistance. Let them accept the war refugees. Let them deal with jihadist terrorists.
1
They won't.
The callousness of the Soviets wasn't a communist trait, though that sort of callousness is inevitably what communists turn to, look at Cuba, China, DPRK.
Callousness is a trait of the Russian upper classes and culturally seen as necessary to prove ones "strength" to rule.
To rule one must by default regard all people as subjects whom one can do with as one pleases. It is the inherent nature of ruling to be illegitimate. Therefore a ruler must be willing to do unsavory & heinous things to get things done and to hold that false power from people who will try to take it away.
The callousness of the Soviets wasn't a communist trait, though that sort of callousness is inevitably what communists turn to, look at Cuba, China, DPRK.
Callousness is a trait of the Russian upper classes and culturally seen as necessary to prove ones "strength" to rule.
To rule one must by default regard all people as subjects whom one can do with as one pleases. It is the inherent nature of ruling to be illegitimate. Therefore a ruler must be willing to do unsavory & heinous things to get things done and to hold that false power from people who will try to take it away.
1
Why the Russians? I don't recall hearing they were responsible for starting this debacle.
3
The foolhardy American led gamble of trying to destabilize Syria generally, so as to destroy the last secular Arab regime backfired miserably and crucially into Europe itself. The destabilization was done in a typical American CIA ignorance of regional topography that essentially forced the mobilization and transfer of at least two; possibly three; urban terrorist divisions from Syria to the heart of western continental Europe (France and the Francophone low countries). Recall that Lebanon and Syria were the center of Francophone neocolonial influence in the Middle East solidified by the Sikes-Picot agreement during WWI. Therefore the plague now infecting both France and Belgium, is directly the result of American destabilization efforts.
Putin merely takes the path of least resistance. The blowback of American destabilization has ignited the flammable atmosphere that was already simmering in Turkey; and soured the taste for tolerating American adventurism by the lowly Europeans who have to live with the consequences of our stupidity. Putin and Assad is merely letting Turkey; its government, and the NATO allies simply stew in their own juice. A roundly failed policy of disruption that has only shown on a far larger scale what happens when NATO (and its new eastern European members spend most of their time “fighting” the Russians in Ukraine) is shown to be a useless instrument of national security.
Putin merely takes the path of least resistance. The blowback of American destabilization has ignited the flammable atmosphere that was already simmering in Turkey; and soured the taste for tolerating American adventurism by the lowly Europeans who have to live with the consequences of our stupidity. Putin and Assad is merely letting Turkey; its government, and the NATO allies simply stew in their own juice. A roundly failed policy of disruption that has only shown on a far larger scale what happens when NATO (and its new eastern European members spend most of their time “fighting” the Russians in Ukraine) is shown to be a useless instrument of national security.
3
Assad is better than Netanyahu and no worse that a group of tyrannical leaders the U.S cultivates around the world. So why all the bad mouthing of Assad? Apparently it comes out of Israel which would like to destroy Syria as a hostile neighbor. But Israel's occupation of Palestine and harsh treatment of the peoples under occupation in that country should not be condoned by the U.S. and Assad should not be opposed merely because Israel seeks his overthrow.
8
Who says Israel seeks Assads overthrow? They are undoubtedly better off with Assad in power than the unknowns of someone else in power. Israel has managed to live with and contain Assad for decades. There's no reason for them to seek his ouster
3
Don't forget the Golan!
4
Truly laughable If you think Israel is pulling the strings.
1
He's in a good mood, eh?
One of the nice things about being a malignant narcissist is the ability to feel pretty dang good about yourself until near the end.
Don't sell this guy life insurance.
One of the nice things about being a malignant narcissist is the ability to feel pretty dang good about yourself until near the end.
Don't sell this guy life insurance.
5
One of the many complexities of this situation is that Assad has nowhere to go. Iran might take him in as an exile but the Aliwaite sect that Assad comes from is rooted in Turkey and Lebannon. Neither can or would offer him asylum.
Another problem is that the Aliwaites now make up 10% of the Syrian population and would have been slaughtered had ISIS taken over. But have also historically faced repression from all Sunni's, including the so called moderates backed by the Saudi's.
This is another of the many dilemma's in Syria. How do you set up a power sharing arrangement when at least one set of interests are the sworn enemy of the other? The atrocities on both sides from the war only add to the enmity. On the positive side, the non-sectarian nature of Assad's government might form the basis of some kind of federation.
I think Putin would push for a federation settlement to the civil war, but at this point neither he nor Obama know what one might look like. Putin at least achieved the first goal of Russian intervention. There still is a Syrian state and it hasn't collapsed into chaos and an expanded territorial base for ISIS. Beyond that it's hard to tell what either Russian or Western options are.
Another problem is that the Aliwaites now make up 10% of the Syrian population and would have been slaughtered had ISIS taken over. But have also historically faced repression from all Sunni's, including the so called moderates backed by the Saudi's.
This is another of the many dilemma's in Syria. How do you set up a power sharing arrangement when at least one set of interests are the sworn enemy of the other? The atrocities on both sides from the war only add to the enmity. On the positive side, the non-sectarian nature of Assad's government might form the basis of some kind of federation.
I think Putin would push for a federation settlement to the civil war, but at this point neither he nor Obama know what one might look like. Putin at least achieved the first goal of Russian intervention. There still is a Syrian state and it hasn't collapsed into chaos and an expanded territorial base for ISIS. Beyond that it's hard to tell what either Russian or Western options are.
4
“They take everything from us,” the Soviet said, “except advice.”
That is the same with us and Israel.
That is the same with us and Israel.
42
"Buoyant mood" and "survivor", are terms that to my mind hardly apply to Assad. Surrounded by rubble, "his" country dismantled, millions of refugees fleeing it, hundreds of thousands dead, desolation everywhere around him and tomorrow uncertain at best. I would not call that reason to be buoyant or be considered a survivor.
3
He is not living in rubble and he does not care a bit about "his people".
5
I said he is "surrounded by rubble", Though he may not be living in the middle of it, he is in it whether he recognizes it or not. Remember how two or three months before they were captured like rats in a sewer (quasi-literally) and killed, Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi were supremely arrogant and still thought they were safe and powerful. Assad just has to have visions of those two men crossing his mind from time to time.
3
Charles De Gaulle because he is arrogant , tall & lanky? I think not! How about Mussolini? Hitler & Stalin divide Poland , Mussolini tries for North Africa,after the feeding frenzy allies turn on each other and in the end Mussolini is hung by his own people. Sounds like a more realistic narrative,with the exception that Mussolini never turned on his own people. When the Bear awakens, beware of the hunger & anger,Mr. Assad, it is just a matter of time,the more you kill your own people ,the greater vengeance will be for your atrocities. Even the Ayotollah fears what his fellow bretheren are capable of. As ads days are numbered, he will retire to Iran ,if he is not hung, and there he will be killed,by someone seeking vengeance for his murderous ways. Want to end the war? End Assad. Take him & his war council in one strike. There will be a point that Putin may take this action & say it was IS. It is in Putins realm of thought.
Assad has benefitted from the enemies that he has. ISIS is universally reviled. The nasty sectarian hatred promoted by the Saudis. The USs failed interventions in Libya and Iraq. But Assad is not out of the woods yet. His country has suffered tremendous damage and economic ruin. Putin largely declared victory because the Russian economy cannot sustain a long term military intervention in Syria.
8
March 25, 2016
This is not the mythology allegoy; the fact that Muslims leaders like Assad drive their total world from their one book: orthodoxy Koranic dogma.
Thus navigating political everything regardless of the blooding sacrifices and neighbors all used for - private myth delusional statecraft. Putin well played his maneuvering and without a red line strategy or caring about the long term equation - not having to invent the goal - other than playing his chess gamesmanship - just for practice should a new game emerge or another ride to nowhere. Only mature adults know how to drive to modernity and they will need council form contemporary scholarship - to getting over these developmental times for the goof of humanity.
jja Manhattan, N.Y.
This is not the mythology allegoy; the fact that Muslims leaders like Assad drive their total world from their one book: orthodoxy Koranic dogma.
Thus navigating political everything regardless of the blooding sacrifices and neighbors all used for - private myth delusional statecraft. Putin well played his maneuvering and without a red line strategy or caring about the long term equation - not having to invent the goal - other than playing his chess gamesmanship - just for practice should a new game emerge or another ride to nowhere. Only mature adults know how to drive to modernity and they will need council form contemporary scholarship - to getting over these developmental times for the goof of humanity.
jja Manhattan, N.Y.
1
March 25 2016
250 pm
Correction to last sentence -
...for the good of humanity.
jja
250 pm
Correction to last sentence -
...for the good of humanity.
jja
1
Are you serious?
"Muslims leaders like Assad drive their total world from their one book: orthodoxy Koranic dogma."
Frankly, I doubt Assad would know the Koran if he tripped over it.
"Muslims leaders like Assad drive their total world from their one book: orthodoxy Koranic dogma."
Frankly, I doubt Assad would know the Koran if he tripped over it.
Russia's only naval base in the Mediterranean Sea is at Tartus on the Syrian coast, and six months ago Russia started upgrading and expanding it. Without this repair and supplies base Russian warships in the Mediterranean would have to to-and-fro to the Black Sea through the Bosphorous and the rest of the Turkish Straits. It would be a mistake to underestimate the importance of this base, and therefore a loyal Syrian regime, to president Putin.
8
I'm mystified: What is there to really negotiate here? Is there more than one possible position for Assad and his cronies to take? It's insane to believe that he would consider a power-sharing agreement when the basis of his power is that it is not shared. Any negotiation undertaken by the West would be essentially a theatrical production for the purpose of pretending to ourselves that we are at least "doing the right thing," even if it makes no practical difference. We would be doing just as much stalling as Assad; the only difference would be the outcome that we hope for.
It's just a waste of time to think about anything other than:
1. Containing Assad with real politik tactics, while not trusting him a single inch (i.e. an agreement between the U.S. and its allies, Russia and Iran).
2. Offering to buy Assad and his circle out- let them loot Syria and go live in Abu Dhabi with a massive security detail, or some similar golden handshake. Let's call that the "Idi Amin option."
3. Killing Assad and enough of his circle to effect regime change.
Hi-ho Silver !!! Again. Only even worse this time.
The only responsible attitude to take with any of these strategies is to assume that the violence in Syria will continue into the foreseeable future, and we will have no satisfyingly effective power or means to shape or even predict events. Then, if we find ourselves with any constructive options at all, at least we won't be undertaking them with a delusional mindset.
It's just a waste of time to think about anything other than:
1. Containing Assad with real politik tactics, while not trusting him a single inch (i.e. an agreement between the U.S. and its allies, Russia and Iran).
2. Offering to buy Assad and his circle out- let them loot Syria and go live in Abu Dhabi with a massive security detail, or some similar golden handshake. Let's call that the "Idi Amin option."
3. Killing Assad and enough of his circle to effect regime change.
Hi-ho Silver !!! Again. Only even worse this time.
The only responsible attitude to take with any of these strategies is to assume that the violence in Syria will continue into the foreseeable future, and we will have no satisfyingly effective power or means to shape or even predict events. Then, if we find ourselves with any constructive options at all, at least we won't be undertaking them with a delusional mindset.
4
The article is detailed and informative.
Clearly, so far, both Assad and Putin have succeeded and gained much, so I'm guessing that an editor prefixed the article with the macabre little fable to punch it up; a NYT specialty.
Putin is no chump frog.
He learned his Afghanistan lesson of not getting mired down in the Middle East. He shored up his allies, including Assad and Iran, there. He strengthened his naval base and added an air force base. Looks like a world-class diplomat thanks to Kerry and Obama. He floats like a butterfly and stings like a scorpion. He distracts his people from their economic downturn woes with a strongman show. He strengthened his military's acumen with real life bombing raids.
The NYT should be reporting on how the ceasefire is working out on a daily basis! Keep them honest!
Clearly, so far, both Assad and Putin have succeeded and gained much, so I'm guessing that an editor prefixed the article with the macabre little fable to punch it up; a NYT specialty.
Putin is no chump frog.
He learned his Afghanistan lesson of not getting mired down in the Middle East. He shored up his allies, including Assad and Iran, there. He strengthened his naval base and added an air force base. Looks like a world-class diplomat thanks to Kerry and Obama. He floats like a butterfly and stings like a scorpion. He distracts his people from their economic downturn woes with a strongman show. He strengthened his military's acumen with real life bombing raids.
The NYT should be reporting on how the ceasefire is working out on a daily basis! Keep them honest!
5
The basic fact is: SYRIA IS NO LONGER A COUNTRY.
It's just a part of a very large battlefield.
It's just a part of a very large battlefield.
5
We can thank the colonial powers for many of the problems in the Middle East. When they decided to leave, they purposely established the countries' borders so they weren't established along compatible tribal/religious divisions.
When oil was discovered, the oil was owned and controlled by Western oil companies until the countries rebelled.
"As ye sow, so shall ye reap".
When oil was discovered, the oil was owned and controlled by Western oil companies until the countries rebelled.
"As ye sow, so shall ye reap".
5
Mr. Assad and Mr. Putin are really two cut from the same piece of cloth. Their caustic symbiotic relationship is proof enough of that.
BOTH of them are Scorpions. Both are willing to sting each other to death in a twisted game of co-dependence that is further destabilizing the region, and costing hundreds of thousands of Syrians their homes and their lives.
No winners on this ride.
BOTH of them are Scorpions. Both are willing to sting each other to death in a twisted game of co-dependence that is further destabilizing the region, and costing hundreds of thousands of Syrians their homes and their lives.
No winners on this ride.
4
This article pretends to present facts but is presenting things from the Saudi influenced pov. Assad is secular and only one that's been protecting other minority groups from hard core Islamists sent in to unseat him. He has much support amongst Syrians that are not Sunni Salafists, who only showed up after the Saudi-led, CIA fronted attack began.
There are even more complexities than mentioned here, but you fail to mention how insidious our regime change, for-profit war mercenaries factor into into it all.
It seems time you tell more of the whole story as most of us know it.
Again you make it sound like Russia is doing something bad by trying to protect their port and ally, while we go uninvited wherever we want and are outraged if anyone protests.
It's a global world, we should get a more global picture than the Pentagon's or "Western officials" who have an obvious agenda.
There are even more complexities than mentioned here, but you fail to mention how insidious our regime change, for-profit war mercenaries factor into into it all.
It seems time you tell more of the whole story as most of us know it.
Again you make it sound like Russia is doing something bad by trying to protect their port and ally, while we go uninvited wherever we want and are outraged if anyone protests.
It's a global world, we should get a more global picture than the Pentagon's or "Western officials" who have an obvious agenda.
18
So now that Vladimir Putin packed his bags and left the Levant in haste, where are all the GOP leaders and presidential contenders who thought Putin was going to eat our lunch in Syria?
3
We have made several fatal mistakes in the past, starting with Saddam Husein and ending with Muammar Gaddafi. Neither one of them was our friend or a direct menace to us. The removal of both of them caused more, far more, trouble than benefit.
A mingling in Syria, in indirect confrontation with Russia, does not bode well.
Our closest allies in this fight, the Saudis, are not necessarily our friends.
A mingling in Syria, in indirect confrontation with Russia, does not bode well.
Our closest allies in this fight, the Saudis, are not necessarily our friends.
19
Of course Assad is evil, but what's the alternatives? The territory Assad does not control is taken by ISIL (Daesh); do you think that's better? Sometimes, it is necessary to define priorities and I think the priority is clear: it is ISIL, not Assad. If the US and West could understand that, it would be a great advance in the fight with ISIL. We could build a coalition of about everyone including Russia to fight the real threat.
5
It seems - re gas fields - some people here don't see that Turkey is on the map, too.
1
Assad and Putin are both of vicious natures. It would be a great relief for the international community if the "Scorpion's Tale" could be reality, and that the two got drowned.
The Syrians should think twice about keeping the Assad dynasty in power. Before the civil war, Syria was already a pariah state. The US designated Syria a "state sponsor of terror" in 1979, bringing a whole raft of sanctions with it. More had been added to since, by the Bush administration in 2004 and by Obama in 2011, after he signed a new executive order, imposing sanctions on Syria's energy sector and freezing all Syrian government assets in the US.
At the same time the international community - the Arab League, European Union and Turkey had all imposed wide-ranging sanctions on the Assad regime, and economic sanctions on Syrian individuals and companies. Assad's glamourous wife, Asma couldn't even travel to Britain, her country of birth and where her parents live, since EU foreign ministers imposed a travel ban and asset freeze on her.
Even if Assad remains president, he will be more isolated than ever. For Putin and Assad, history will not be kind to them, even if they rule with an iron fist at home.
The Syrians should think twice about keeping the Assad dynasty in power. Before the civil war, Syria was already a pariah state. The US designated Syria a "state sponsor of terror" in 1979, bringing a whole raft of sanctions with it. More had been added to since, by the Bush administration in 2004 and by Obama in 2011, after he signed a new executive order, imposing sanctions on Syria's energy sector and freezing all Syrian government assets in the US.
At the same time the international community - the Arab League, European Union and Turkey had all imposed wide-ranging sanctions on the Assad regime, and economic sanctions on Syrian individuals and companies. Assad's glamourous wife, Asma couldn't even travel to Britain, her country of birth and where her parents live, since EU foreign ministers imposed a travel ban and asset freeze on her.
Even if Assad remains president, he will be more isolated than ever. For Putin and Assad, history will not be kind to them, even if they rule with an iron fist at home.
5
Putin has been double-crossed. The Russian dictator still thinks like it's the Cold War: in binary/simplistic terms. Only later into the game he realized that Iran, not the US, is the key player in this atrocious conflict. And to make matters worse, Assad has been cozying up with ISIS from the outset.
Only now that ISIS has been retreating on all fronts thanks to the Western coalition air campaign and the Kurdish resistance on the ground, Assad is turning against ISIS. Putin was left to be a mere pawn in this game, while he had somehow convinced himself that he was the deal maker. The sudden stop and withdrawal from Syria demonstrates how much of Putin's ego has been bruised. Assad himself is only a puppet in Teheran's plan for asserting control over the entire region.
Only now that ISIS has been retreating on all fronts thanks to the Western coalition air campaign and the Kurdish resistance on the ground, Assad is turning against ISIS. Putin was left to be a mere pawn in this game, while he had somehow convinced himself that he was the deal maker. The sudden stop and withdrawal from Syria demonstrates how much of Putin's ego has been bruised. Assad himself is only a puppet in Teheran's plan for asserting control over the entire region.
2
As someone who recalls my Harvard days with mixed emotions, I am reminded of t-shirts sold by student organizations before "The Game" that read "life could be worse, you could be at Yale." Under no sane application of the human mind, is Putin a "pawn" to Syria's Assad. Putin got everything he wanted from military intervention in Syria, a strategic foothold for the Russian military, and more importantly, Putin completely humiliated Barack Obama and Russia took the global lead (over the USA) in the fight against radical Islamic terror.
Maybe there's a different geography text in New Haven, but I've never heard of "Teheran"...there's a Tehran in Iran though. And if anybody is a puppet in all this, clearly it's Obama, who emboldened and enabled Iran to the verge of global legitimacy and nuclear capability. Remember, it was Obama who huffed, puffed and whined about Russia's intervention in Syria.
Putin stepped aside, putting the quagmire back in Obama's lap to draw more red lines and erase them.
Maybe there's a different geography text in New Haven, but I've never heard of "Teheran"...there's a Tehran in Iran though. And if anybody is a puppet in all this, clearly it's Obama, who emboldened and enabled Iran to the verge of global legitimacy and nuclear capability. Remember, it was Obama who huffed, puffed and whined about Russia's intervention in Syria.
Putin stepped aside, putting the quagmire back in Obama's lap to draw more red lines and erase them.
4
Seems ISIS is in Yemen, Libya, Afghanistan, Turkey, as well as Syria, Iraq and possibly others
2
No, Putin did not get everything he wanted from the Russian military intervention. It was only a show to try to tell the whole world that he was still relevant. The Russian has been flying over Sweden's and UK's (Scotland) air space, repeatedly: everything goes to keep the Cold War spirit alive...
I agree with you: the Obama administration has completely failed and given up on the Middle East in general, in Syria in particular, albeit it appears that the US military is back in the game (special forces in eastern Syria).
As per geography texbooks, well Teheran does spell differently, but we don't expect you to have any command of Farsi. You probably were too busy navel gazing.
And I say it again: Iran is the master player here, they already control four Arab capital cities (Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, Sanaa), and yes, their nuclear -military- program is only a matter of time before it is for real.
I agree with you: the Obama administration has completely failed and given up on the Middle East in general, in Syria in particular, albeit it appears that the US military is back in the game (special forces in eastern Syria).
As per geography texbooks, well Teheran does spell differently, but we don't expect you to have any command of Farsi. You probably were too busy navel gazing.
And I say it again: Iran is the master player here, they already control four Arab capital cities (Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, Sanaa), and yes, their nuclear -military- program is only a matter of time before it is for real.
1
It is depressing to observe that the only thing that appears able to foil Middle East anarchy is a rejection of theocracy. Yet secular governments are being annihilated by islamists.
When the imperial caliphate begins whacking regional sectarian governments, maybe the idea of history's moving backwards will lose some of its appeal. The rule of law only exists in a secular state, which requires a great leap forward.
It doesn't help when the USA itself seems to look backwards with fondness for religious law, and its policy towards the Middle East is rooted in one prolonged genuflection to tribal religious organization.
When the imperial caliphate begins whacking regional sectarian governments, maybe the idea of history's moving backwards will lose some of its appeal. The rule of law only exists in a secular state, which requires a great leap forward.
It doesn't help when the USA itself seems to look backwards with fondness for religious law, and its policy towards the Middle East is rooted in one prolonged genuflection to tribal religious organization.
5
The allegory should be carried further to the Obama administration's dirty war i Yemen. Surely Saudi Arabia, having killed nearly 3,000 civilians so far in airstrikes carried out by U.S. supplied F15's and 'precision' guided bombs, is the scorpion, and the American President, who supports the Saudi-led 'coalition with intelligence sharing, re-fueling capability and a continual supply of more bombs, must be the frog.
13
I love the comparison between Assad and de Gaulle. Let’s see:
De Gaulle initially tried to quell strikes and student and worker protests with police action but then dissolved the assembly, called for elections; protests evaporated and his party emerged with a stronger majority. Assad started with arrests and torture, moved on to gassing and is now indiscriminately bombing and starving civilians.
De Gaulle was a popular resistance hero that became president founding the fifth republic and helping his country emerge from a time of turbulence. Assad inherited a despotic regime and managed to make it worse probably leading to the permanent breakup of his country.
De Gaulle was a key player in the foundation of the European Union, Assad’s butchery are causing a refugee crisis and fueling radicalization that could lead to its dissolution.
De Gaulle was not perfect, Assad probably thinks he is.
De Gaulle initially tried to quell strikes and student and worker protests with police action but then dissolved the assembly, called for elections; protests evaporated and his party emerged with a stronger majority. Assad started with arrests and torture, moved on to gassing and is now indiscriminately bombing and starving civilians.
De Gaulle was a popular resistance hero that became president founding the fifth republic and helping his country emerge from a time of turbulence. Assad inherited a despotic regime and managed to make it worse probably leading to the permanent breakup of his country.
De Gaulle was a key player in the foundation of the European Union, Assad’s butchery are causing a refugee crisis and fueling radicalization that could lead to its dissolution.
De Gaulle was not perfect, Assad probably thinks he is.
4
Why can't one of our many drones just happen to accidentally take out Assad by mistake? If anyone calls us on it, DOD and CIA have pretty much perfected the standard alibi as to how these types of accidents are just innocent mistakes. What's the harm in trying? Can a disaster be made any worse than that? At least then we don't have to look at any more pictures of that rat-faced Assad with his privileged and sadistic self-assured smirk on it. For all we known, it could end like that scene from the Wizard of Oz when Dorothy accidentally "liquidates" the wicked witch and all the soldiers hail her as their savior. Sometimes fiction has more to offer about truth than all the stuff that we presume to think is real.
4
Impossible, strong men like Putin and Trump never get taken for a ride. Anyway if this stabilizes the situation in the country, it is all to the good. This way everyone wins. Russia appears like a hero, Assad gets to stay, the refugee problem lessens to Europe and the U.S. great relief, and ISIS appears to be in retreat. The only one that loses are the freedom fighters. And lets be honest, who cares about them.
6
Assad is not getting greater Syria back. If Russia does leave, could be interesting quickly. One crack in the armor of the government and it will fall.
Is clear that Russian interests are not entirely congruent with those of Assad. It is true that Putin wanted to save the Assad regime from destruction at the hands of rebels. He also aimed to weaken the Western-backed "moderate" rebels, with the fight against the so-called "Islamic State" playing little or no role in his considerations.
But Putin on no account intended to help his vassals in Damascus win a military victory. This would have drawn the Russian army into a brutal and expensive war against the Sunni majority population in Syria. A second Afghanistan would massively damage Russia's economic and political interests. Mission "accomplished".
But Putin on no account intended to help his vassals in Damascus win a military victory. This would have drawn the Russian army into a brutal and expensive war against the Sunni majority population in Syria. A second Afghanistan would massively damage Russia's economic and political interests. Mission "accomplished".
2
Now with Russia gone, isn't it about time for the US to make good on the promises it made to the Syrian rebels after Assad's forces gassed them, years ago? Or do we like being just a paper tiger. Nothing has changed with regard to Assad and his clans tyrannical grip on his dad's estate, except we've only now been shown to be not a paper tiger, but instead a paper house cat.
Mr. Obama shares a great deal of responsibility for Assad's ability to remain in power. Specifically the empty threat to bomb Assad during the chemical weapons fiasco. That empty threat emboldened Assad and Putin. Both saw that Obama was paralyzed. Mr. Obama also failed to arm the rebels and support them when they had a chance before the intervention of ISIS and Russia. Of course Mr. Obama denies the existence of power vacuums. And he also asserts that Putin acted out of fear. None of Mr. Obama's reasoning and inaction makes sense to anyone.
Putin's military adventurism, the American nuclear deal with Iran, the fall of Crimea, the abandonment of Ukraine and Georgia and the rise of ISIS are all inextricably linked together by the ineptitude of American inaction, American withdrawal and Obama's hesitancy and perceived weakness.
The current history of Syria and Assad is also a history lesson for American interest. This lesson in history is a reflection of the leadership or lack of it by the United States.
In my view, the worst is the abandonment of the world standard for a total ban of chemical/gas warfare. For almost 100 years since the end of World War I chemical warfare has been outlawed. Mr. Obama in a single stroke failed to uphold the world's disavowal of chemical horror. Now Hezbollah, Iran, Russia, the Syrian Regime, and other despotic nations can take heart. The use of chemical weapons or other weapons of mass destruction will prevent American intervention.
Putin's military adventurism, the American nuclear deal with Iran, the fall of Crimea, the abandonment of Ukraine and Georgia and the rise of ISIS are all inextricably linked together by the ineptitude of American inaction, American withdrawal and Obama's hesitancy and perceived weakness.
The current history of Syria and Assad is also a history lesson for American interest. This lesson in history is a reflection of the leadership or lack of it by the United States.
In my view, the worst is the abandonment of the world standard for a total ban of chemical/gas warfare. For almost 100 years since the end of World War I chemical warfare has been outlawed. Mr. Obama in a single stroke failed to uphold the world's disavowal of chemical horror. Now Hezbollah, Iran, Russia, the Syrian Regime, and other despotic nations can take heart. The use of chemical weapons or other weapons of mass destruction will prevent American intervention.
2
The world owes President Putin a debt of gratitude.
Putin blocked Washington and the Arab autocrats in the Gulf (i.e. Terror Central) from turning Syria into another chaotic dangerous Sunni Islamist hellhole like Libya and Afghanistan.
Putin blocked Washington and the Arab autocrats in the Gulf (i.e. Terror Central) from turning Syria into another chaotic dangerous Sunni Islamist hellhole like Libya and Afghanistan.
17
So tell me ... what would Japan have looked like if we had taken out the emperor after WWII ?
What are we doing in Syria? I get it .... Assad is a bad guy .. so was his father ... so was Attila the Hun. It's not our job to fix the world .. and we don't do a good job anyway.
Look at Libya .... How did we help? We did not. We need to leave these people alone.
What are we doing in Syria? I get it .... Assad is a bad guy .. so was his father ... so was Attila the Hun. It's not our job to fix the world .. and we don't do a good job anyway.
Look at Libya .... How did we help? We did not. We need to leave these people alone.
22
Once again, the thanks, project for a New American Century. EVerything that has happened in the region is a result of the US invasion of Iraq. It is quite a feat to destroy a region so much that people who lived together for centuries ( under the Ottomans) now have implacable hatred for each other, Great work! Nothing we have touched is not worse.
5
What Assad should really be looking for from Putin is asylum. When he ultimately loses his position and power in Syria, how is he going to escape being brought to trial and convicted of crimes against humanity? He’s not going to enjoy spending his remaining years in prison or anticipating a death sentence. Without asylum, I don’t see how he can look forward to any other fate.
3
There is a ceasefire in Syria, but the facts on the ground still do not favor Mr. Assad. The Kurds, the largest ethnic minority in Syria, are creating their own separate state that could possibly be a new homeland for Kurds in Iran, Iraq, and Turkey as part of a negotiated peace plan. Moreover, ISIS is not going to be defeated by Assad meaning he will have to gain the support of both Russia and the U.S. The U.S. will have to swallow its failed regime change policy by leaving Assad in control of a much reduced Alawite Shia state in exchange for a semi-autonomous federation that includes the Kurds. If a peace plan for a post-civil war Syria can be hammered out by Secretary of State John Kerry working with is Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, then a NATO-led military operation can supply the "boots on the ground" to eliminate ISIS in Syria, Iraq, and Libya. This will allow Syria to be rebuilt, refugees to return, and hopefully put an end to the ISIS terrorists attacks in Europe. There is an opening now to accomplish this, and in Mr. Kerry and Mr. Lavrov we have two men who have demonstrated that they can thread this diplomatic needle.
2
The Kurds, our only usable allies in Iraq (and Syria) against IS will not idly stand by as the Turks are annihilating their brethren.
For Kurdistan to become a sovereign state (which I believe the long-term goal), it will have to take land from all 3 countries.
Iraq and Syria can be talked into it, but Turkey under Erdogan will not yield an iota.
And that is the core of the problem.
For Kurdistan to become a sovereign state (which I believe the long-term goal), it will have to take land from all 3 countries.
Iraq and Syria can be talked into it, but Turkey under Erdogan will not yield an iota.
And that is the core of the problem.
4
It seems the Foreign powers are ever eager to topple stability in the Middle East than working with an existing leader. A bad leader, till a good replacement is available, is better than no leadership and chaos. Look at what has happened in Iraq and Libya and the refugee crisis in Europe and ISIS. Building a good regime takes time and cooperation and give and take, and not divisive politics. All human beings deserve better opportunities for their lives.
So President Assad has managed to stay in power for more than 15 years has to say something about his leadership skills. The West has to work with him and other current leaders there for a better Middle East.
So President Assad has managed to stay in power for more than 15 years has to say something about his leadership skills. The West has to work with him and other current leaders there for a better Middle East.
4
Look at a map. The middle east has one of the world's largest natural gas fields . They cannot built a pipeline until Assad is no longer in power.Putin wins no matter what as long as that pipeline cannot get to the underbelly of Europe
2
When we describe Assad as refusing to “make deals” or "negotiate seriously”, what we really mean is that he refuses to give up his position. And why are we and the Saudis willing to accept nothing less than Assad’s abdication? Are we trying to make way for ISIS the way we did in Libya, by deposing Qaddafi?
4
Assad, in addition to being a killing machine, is a criminal thug with mutual affinity with Putin's grandiose plans of an imperial Russia. So, as long as they can prop-up each other, no signs of justice for the syrian people can be envisioned. Assad is a dictator who seems oblivious of the suffering he has caused, and the grim future of his country while he remains in power. Ms Khalil is just subservient in her far-fetched comments about Assad's pretensious claim to glory.
The other side of the coin:
Assad has ruled over a fractious collection of religious and ethnic tribes, who would have been at each others throats most of the time. The only way to keep these tensions from bubbling to the surface is by keeping the lid firmly closed.
Yes, there was (brutal) oppression and no so-called 'free press' - but the state institutions were secular, women could drive and vote and hands were not chopped off for thievery.
Ask any Syrian today, having experienced what they did in the past 5 years, would they rather have the old (dictatorial) calm and safety back, or rather see their country destroyed all in the name of 'freedom and democracy'?
I'm pretty sure of how the majority would vote.
In fact, one of the most under-reported events there since the Russian involvement started and helped the government retake territory is the huge influx of people returning home - on the government side.
And they're immensely thankful for Russia's helping an ally, because that's all what has happened here.
Just as the US helped Kuwait in the first Gulf war.
Assad has ruled over a fractious collection of religious and ethnic tribes, who would have been at each others throats most of the time. The only way to keep these tensions from bubbling to the surface is by keeping the lid firmly closed.
Yes, there was (brutal) oppression and no so-called 'free press' - but the state institutions were secular, women could drive and vote and hands were not chopped off for thievery.
Ask any Syrian today, having experienced what they did in the past 5 years, would they rather have the old (dictatorial) calm and safety back, or rather see their country destroyed all in the name of 'freedom and democracy'?
I'm pretty sure of how the majority would vote.
In fact, one of the most under-reported events there since the Russian involvement started and helped the government retake territory is the huge influx of people returning home - on the government side.
And they're immensely thankful for Russia's helping an ally, because that's all what has happened here.
Just as the US helped Kuwait in the first Gulf war.
5
Don't you think a quarter million murdered, under Assad's regime, is too high a price to pay, along with the unbearable refugee crisis, all for submission to a thug, and highly doubtful transient security, as freedom is surrendered? Assad's father was a ruthless dictator as well, but with just 20,000 murders under his belt. Syrian people deserve better, if given a chance. To avoid chaos by toppling Assad, a prompt transition has been proposed, so a decent individual (a woman perhaps, for a salutary effect?) can return order and law in the current civil war, a climate of terror akin to the other evil forces lurking in the shadows.
If Putin wants Assad gone, he will be gone, just - like - that.
3
Putin is no frog. But Assad is a wily scorpion who will sting only after the frog has delivered him onto the other bank. However, the cruelty he is capable of was revealed only when an attempt was made to usurp his power and authority. Let me be clear. I abhor the man. Assad is a demagogue but he is a secular demagogue and the Syrians lived in relative peace. The West trying to disturb a hornet's nest, arming shady, unreliable insurgents have brought about this tragedy. The Syrian people have been caught in the crossfire. If they leave, they have no place to go because nobody wants them and they die on the high seas. If they stay they are killed by the Government forces. The West is equally responsible for this cauldron of unimaginable misery. We should have learned a lesson from Iraq and Libya. But we did'nt. We bludgeoned our way into murky waters unable to see the differences between their culture and ours without a plan B. Out of this melting cauldron has emerged the sharpened sword of Damocles hanging on our heads - the deadly ISIS. And who are we fighting now - the ISIS within our borders and a totally confused strategy in the Middle East. Now we have the murdering terrorists within our midst. Putin was a smart frog. He bailed out in the nick of time. It's time we did to. Leave the Middle East tribes to fight among themselves. Our help is just adding fuel to the fire. The irony is that the people who we are trying to protect are the ones who are suffering the most.
39
Assad, a former ophthalmologist, has simply destroyed the good name of ophthalmologists everywhere. "Would you like some mustard gas with those frames?"
This guy is one of the greatest butchers of innocents in recent times. Remind me again why we freely assassinate ISIS terrorists, but not mass murderers in suits and ties? Because he was "elected" in a transparently corrupt election? That gives him immunity as a head of state?
This guy is one of the greatest butchers of innocents in recent times. Remind me again why we freely assassinate ISIS terrorists, but not mass murderers in suits and ties? Because he was "elected" in a transparently corrupt election? That gives him immunity as a head of state?
2
Are you suggesting, that the United States should go around and kill foreign heads of state, as it sees it fit?
Really?
Really?
4
If we had a chance to assassinate Hitler during World War Two do you think we wouldn't have done it? It doesn't have to come from us. There are many who are willing and able with a little help from friends.
1
you have so little idea of what you are talking about. Far from being a Hitler, Assad is fighting a do or die battle against islamist fundamentalists sponsored by America's best friends the saudis and the qataris. I know what I am talking about. I have visited Syria several times, the last time in 2010 and I always found it a vibrant multi-confessional, mulit-ethnic society with a relatively stable economy. That until the so called rebels and their foreign sponsors started the fire
1
From the article:
"Mr. Assad excels at running [out] the clock. His officials show up at peace talks but essentially refuse to negotiate."
Assad has always said he'd negotiate with rebels that truly represent his opposition and can make a deal that they can perform. It's always been clear to me that the so-called "good rebels" don't fit that description. Pre-ISIS, the al Nusra Front always seemed to be the real power among the rebels. We insisted that they couldn't participate in any negotiations, and they always insisted the "good rebels" didn't speak for them. So Assad was left to talk with someone who had no power to deliver on its promises. Frankly, I'm amazed he even agreed to show up.
Since ISIS showed up on the scene, of course, the "good rebels" have even less power to deliver. Frankly, it's less than clear to me that the "good rebels" even exist – much less that they're worth Assad's time (or anyone else's time) to talk to.
"Mr. Assad excels at running [out] the clock. His officials show up at peace talks but essentially refuse to negotiate."
Assad has always said he'd negotiate with rebels that truly represent his opposition and can make a deal that they can perform. It's always been clear to me that the so-called "good rebels" don't fit that description. Pre-ISIS, the al Nusra Front always seemed to be the real power among the rebels. We insisted that they couldn't participate in any negotiations, and they always insisted the "good rebels" didn't speak for them. So Assad was left to talk with someone who had no power to deliver on its promises. Frankly, I'm amazed he even agreed to show up.
Since ISIS showed up on the scene, of course, the "good rebels" have even less power to deliver. Frankly, it's less than clear to me that the "good rebels" even exist – much less that they're worth Assad's time (or anyone else's time) to talk to.
7
Whatever else comes of this, I'm confident Assad is prepared to "write off" the huge desert of eastern Syria -- which is all that ISIS will end up with, other than two good-sized cities along the Euphrates, which Assad undoubtedly would like to keep but nevertheless can live without.
Whether it be ISIS (probably) or someone else who ends up controlling the desert areas of eastern Syria and western Iraq, the key fact will remain that the areas they control are desert areas of eastern Syria and western Iraq. Mosul will be retaken, along with a few other key Iraqi cities. Once that happens, whoever controls those desert areas of eastern Syria and western Iraq will (to revive some old Watergate parlance) be left to "twist slowly in the wind."
Whether it be ISIS (probably) or someone else who ends up controlling the desert areas of eastern Syria and western Iraq, the key fact will remain that the areas they control are desert areas of eastern Syria and western Iraq. Mosul will be retaken, along with a few other key Iraqi cities. Once that happens, whoever controls those desert areas of eastern Syria and western Iraq will (to revive some old Watergate parlance) be left to "twist slowly in the wind."
2
more like a boiled fish bragging about how he was caught.
1
Consdier the possibility that Putin lost patience with Assad and gave him an ultimatum, which Assad ignored. Consider that possibility that Putin and Assad are pretending that Russian support is ongoing, whereas in reality Putin is strangling Assad slowly by cutting off funds and weapons.
Middle Eastern autocrats bluster when overwhelming forces are about to destroy them. That is the lesson of recent history. Assad is very close to death.
Middle Eastern autocrats bluster when overwhelming forces are about to destroy them. That is the lesson of recent history. Assad is very close to death.
The fact is, Russia left Assad massive stores of munitions to carry through the their end game,and still has advisers and special forces providing real-time battleground intelligence (as does Iran). This 'story' is an attempt by the White House to off load blame for the dismal Obama administration policy in Syria, and to spin it as a Putin 'loss'.
The United States lost air dominance over Syria in the Russian intervention, and that continues today. Russia has now more influence in the region than in the past 20 years. Russia was able to show the United States and the world it has the means, and will, to take military action when it see's its interests threatened in the Middle East.
Unfortunately, The Obama administration's 'slow boil' policy in Syria, and the failure to act over the 'red line' comment, allowed Russia to carry forward its political and military objectives in Syria to U.S. detriment.
The United States lost air dominance over Syria in the Russian intervention, and that continues today. Russia has now more influence in the region than in the past 20 years. Russia was able to show the United States and the world it has the means, and will, to take military action when it see's its interests threatened in the Middle East.
Unfortunately, The Obama administration's 'slow boil' policy in Syria, and the failure to act over the 'red line' comment, allowed Russia to carry forward its political and military objectives in Syria to U.S. detriment.
1
Replacing, deposing, killing the strongman in the Middle East unleashes the whirlwind. All of these strongmen eliminate all organizations which can potentially challenge them. Civic groups of any type are squashed. As a result, the top guy rules with little to fear. Fear is for those below. The mosque remains the only "organization".
Having no institutions below the strongman means that when Sadam, Khadaffi, and to a degree Mubarak are deposed there is no group able to gain and hold control and all hell breaks loose. I think this is, finally, the realization that Obama has made. We cannot do it for them. They must painfully, heartbreakingly work it out for themselves. Support where we can, but recognize the reality of the Middle East.
Having no institutions below the strongman means that when Sadam, Khadaffi, and to a degree Mubarak are deposed there is no group able to gain and hold control and all hell breaks loose. I think this is, finally, the realization that Obama has made. We cannot do it for them. They must painfully, heartbreakingly work it out for themselves. Support where we can, but recognize the reality of the Middle East.
91
I can hardly believe myself as I write this comment since I was born a Jew (but am an Agnostic) and a confirmed Zionist and yet I believe that reestablishing Assad in Syria is in everyone's best interest in the long run. The fantasy of the "Arab Spring" is long past. The fact is that these countries will NEVER develop into anything resembling a Western Democracy and I think the world now, finally, realizes this. I despise the despots of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Syria et.al. however it's only through a strong centralized authority that these forsaken lands can maintain a semblance of peace and stability and NOTHING could be worse than the rise and proliferation of ISIS. Saudi Arabia, in effect, conducts policy the same way ISIS does with beheadings and stonings and despotic rule HOWEVER they maintain a semblance of stability over their land which provides a modicum of security to the outside world and a center of power that can be negotiated with. Likewise in Syria with Assad. His is a dynasty in the vein of North Korea. We abhor that very concept in the West and rightly so however we are not able to influence how every country on this planet chooses to live. With Assad in power there was tentative stability over that rogue country. Without him there was total and beyond brutal chaos. It's a sad choice but better to sleep with the devil than let him burn you to a crisp and no one can deny that Syria is now more stable than it was 6 months ago as painful as it is to admit.
6
Unless we speculate at the unspeakable, that the Administration, unwilling to enforce the "red line" has adopted a policy of sorts of having the Shiites and Sunnis occupy themselves with killing each other in Syria in a balance of power exercise of sorts (see Iran-Iraq War), with perhaps independence for the deserving Kurds, the article is a reminder of mammoth misjudgments: 1) Assad early in the Administration being feted by the Administration, Kerry and Pelosi; 2) Obama counting Erdogan as foreign leader with closest relationship; 3) red line debacle; 4) Libya debacle; 5) Isis as JV team; and 6) failure to have deal with Iraq to secure presence.
1
It's fashionable to say that a situation is much more complicated than meets the eye, and one doesn't even get accused of racism to add that Arabs are especially inclined to be "indirect."
I get that. But I'll nonetheless plead guilty to viewing this situation as fairly simple.
From Day 1, Putin said Russia was there to help an ally against his enemies, and that's what he did. The US argued that the only legitimate "enemy" was ISIS, and thus complained that Russia attacked other Assad opponents too, such as the al Nusra Front and even the "good rebels" we back. (Perhaps we should be grateful the "good rebels" were attacked, since that arguably proves they exist.)
Putin always responded that his definition of Assad's enemies was different from ours: Putin considered anybody who attacked the Syrian government as a "terrorist." We don't, but he does, and he's always made that clear.
Russia's abrupt departure surprised everyone (but, as Putin himself pointed out, Russian planes are only a few hours away). The US government has a difficult time understanding that a foreign power would send its military to some Middle Eastern country and then actually leave some day, since we tend to set up shop and stay pretty much forever. But Putin said from Day 1 that Russia would leave when it had accomplished what it had come for.
Putin also said that, once the situation had stabilized, Russia indeed might lean on Assad to make some political concessions. The time for that has come.
I get that. But I'll nonetheless plead guilty to viewing this situation as fairly simple.
From Day 1, Putin said Russia was there to help an ally against his enemies, and that's what he did. The US argued that the only legitimate "enemy" was ISIS, and thus complained that Russia attacked other Assad opponents too, such as the al Nusra Front and even the "good rebels" we back. (Perhaps we should be grateful the "good rebels" were attacked, since that arguably proves they exist.)
Putin always responded that his definition of Assad's enemies was different from ours: Putin considered anybody who attacked the Syrian government as a "terrorist." We don't, but he does, and he's always made that clear.
Russia's abrupt departure surprised everyone (but, as Putin himself pointed out, Russian planes are only a few hours away). The US government has a difficult time understanding that a foreign power would send its military to some Middle Eastern country and then actually leave some day, since we tend to set up shop and stay pretty much forever. But Putin said from Day 1 that Russia would leave when it had accomplished what it had come for.
Putin also said that, once the situation had stabilized, Russia indeed might lean on Assad to make some political concessions. The time for that has come.
2
This is not a front page article belonging, instead, tacked onto an opinion section.
That said, my comment reflects ongoing frustration: where in the H is the discussion of cause and effect in the US? Even after 9/11, almost no one was willing or interested in asking: what, fundamentally, is driving the anti-US sentiment in the Middle East?
This article does touch on it, but not front & center.
While the answer certainly can be argued, mine is this: two things -- 1. those absolutely arbitrary 'national' lines through tribal regions -- drawn for colonial reasons and buttressed by colonial thinking, and 2. the insertion and unconditional support for the European colony of Jews -- historic enemies of Islam -- into the religious focal point of the MidEast.
Like a thorn under a saddle, Israel continues to prick with its progressively increasing expansion and ruthlessness. The US is its enabler. So how can anyone wonder why the US (and the West by contact) is targeted by the only means the opposition has?
Arbitrary national borders? Duh. Imagine combining Alabama, Vermont, and Detroit into a single compact state with unlimited oil reserves -- and then throw on top of it the eternal & visceral American cold war thinking.
That said, my comment reflects ongoing frustration: where in the H is the discussion of cause and effect in the US? Even after 9/11, almost no one was willing or interested in asking: what, fundamentally, is driving the anti-US sentiment in the Middle East?
This article does touch on it, but not front & center.
While the answer certainly can be argued, mine is this: two things -- 1. those absolutely arbitrary 'national' lines through tribal regions -- drawn for colonial reasons and buttressed by colonial thinking, and 2. the insertion and unconditional support for the European colony of Jews -- historic enemies of Islam -- into the religious focal point of the MidEast.
Like a thorn under a saddle, Israel continues to prick with its progressively increasing expansion and ruthlessness. The US is its enabler. So how can anyone wonder why the US (and the West by contact) is targeted by the only means the opposition has?
Arbitrary national borders? Duh. Imagine combining Alabama, Vermont, and Detroit into a single compact state with unlimited oil reserves -- and then throw on top of it the eternal & visceral American cold war thinking.
3
Charles DeGaulle wasn't profoundly corrupt. If Assad were DeGaulle Syria would not have descended into hell.
3
I consider Russia's abrupt departure a very good thing, for two reasons:
1. A world power's military came to a struggling Middle Eastern country and then actually left. That's unusual these days.
2. Intentionally or not, Russia has left Assad a bit uncertain about how much Russian support Assad can count on going forward. Putin said from Day 1 that, once the situation had been stabilized, he was inclined to lean on Assad to make political concessions as the Syrian people might fairly demand. By leaving, Russia has effectively announced that the time for that has arrived. Assad probably had become quite comfortable having the Russians flying around his country dropping bombs on his enemies. But now it's Assad's turn to perform. Russia's departure reminds Assad that Russia's support was conditional.
1. A world power's military came to a struggling Middle Eastern country and then actually left. That's unusual these days.
2. Intentionally or not, Russia has left Assad a bit uncertain about how much Russian support Assad can count on going forward. Putin said from Day 1 that, once the situation had been stabilized, he was inclined to lean on Assad to make political concessions as the Syrian people might fairly demand. By leaving, Russia has effectively announced that the time for that has arrived. Assad probably had become quite comfortable having the Russians flying around his country dropping bombs on his enemies. But now it's Assad's turn to perform. Russia's departure reminds Assad that Russia's support was conditional.
5
"And Moscow and Tehran don't seem to really trust each other. They are allies in name only."
There's an old saying in Washington:
"If you want a friend in Washington, buy a dog."
The same is true in foreign relations. You shake hands, but count your fingers when you're done.
There's an old saying in Washington:
"If you want a friend in Washington, buy a dog."
The same is true in foreign relations. You shake hands, but count your fingers when you're done.
8
Good suggestion:
"Shouldn't the NYT examine which country(s) may be the scorpion and which country may be the frog that is leading our country, the U.S., into disastrous regime change operations in the ME?"
Take Libya, for example. Should we consider whether those eastern-Libya rebels we helped to overthrow Qaddafi might have turned out to be scorpions? Might they have even been obvious scorpions from the get-go but we preferred not to notice that?
"Shouldn't the NYT examine which country(s) may be the scorpion and which country may be the frog that is leading our country, the U.S., into disastrous regime change operations in the ME?"
Take Libya, for example. Should we consider whether those eastern-Libya rebels we helped to overthrow Qaddafi might have turned out to be scorpions? Might they have even been obvious scorpions from the get-go but we preferred not to notice that?
4
The world is just loaded with the tragic. Peter Blos PhD in his last decade was apt to say, I cannot read The New York Times: it's too good, and the news is too depressing. Well, he was 88. And he was entitled.
But the world needs news that is too good... and this piece is needed.
Assad and Putin and Iran... the Wahhabi and others... are cursed with the willingness to kill or be killed... and it's time they all read Anne Barnard and Rukmini Callimachi and Mona El-Naggar and others... to see how they look in God's Mirror.
The children are listening and hoping from Myanmar to Manila, Haiti to China, North Korea to Vietnam, Baltimore to Detroit to Cleveland, Russia to England... all across the world... the children are listening... and waiting for us, the adults... to awaken to the mess and do something about it.
And so few are listening to them.
But the world needs news that is too good... and this piece is needed.
Assad and Putin and Iran... the Wahhabi and others... are cursed with the willingness to kill or be killed... and it's time they all read Anne Barnard and Rukmini Callimachi and Mona El-Naggar and others... to see how they look in God's Mirror.
The children are listening and hoping from Myanmar to Manila, Haiti to China, North Korea to Vietnam, Baltimore to Detroit to Cleveland, Russia to England... all across the world... the children are listening... and waiting for us, the adults... to awaken to the mess and do something about it.
And so few are listening to them.
3
Just exactly what does mass murderer Assad think he will continue to be president of? The palace? He seems to be in the same la-la land that DT is. So arrogant, so narcissistic, so insulated that they do not have a clue about running even a remotely democratic country. It will be a day to celebrate when the frog and scorpion are both drowned or mass murderer is arrested for war crimes by The Hague. He and his kind have no place in a civilized world.
Right---Assad's a genius. And will rule over rubble and death for the rest of his reign.
"My name is Ozymandias...." etc.
"My name is Ozymandias...." etc.
5
Obama made a fundamental mistake when he failed to put his threats into concrete military action. This raised credibility issues that Assad and Putin both exploited. It also enabled the rise of the Islamic State, led to the destruction of the ancient Roman city of Palmyra, the mass refugee exodus to Europe and ISIS terrorist activities. A failure of nerve on Obama's part only enhanced the chaos roiling Syria today. To Putin's credit, he did what needed to be done.
5
The only effective step would have been the kind of bombing of Syrian troops that destroyed Kaddafi. But Putin signalled he would use Russian planes to defend Syrian troops. We should have had a war with Russia to overthrow Assad and leave the kind of ungovernable mess we have in Libya????
The right strategy was to ally with Assad, Saddam. and Kaddafi--and the secular dictators in countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Russia. In World War II we allied with Stalin against the immediate dangers of Hitler and Japan The after the war we allied with Japan and West German against the Soviet Union. The big danger now is radical Islamic fundamentalism, includin Saudi Arabia.and we should ally with secular dictators against it.
Obama, as always, sought a haf-hearted and inconsistent middle ground that only led to disaster. That was his big mistake.
The right strategy was to ally with Assad, Saddam. and Kaddafi--and the secular dictators in countries like Egypt, Jordan, and Russia. In World War II we allied with Stalin against the immediate dangers of Hitler and Japan The after the war we allied with Japan and West German against the Soviet Union. The big danger now is radical Islamic fundamentalism, includin Saudi Arabia.and we should ally with secular dictators against it.
Obama, as always, sought a haf-hearted and inconsistent middle ground that only led to disaster. That was his big mistake.
3
Sure enough, Obama made a mistake when he misspoke. A bigger mistake would have been to "put boots on the ground" in Syria, thus repeating the mistake of Bush and Cheney.
4
If Obama had put his threats to bomb in place after Russia had offered a way out of the conundrum he would have been as evil as Assad. Period, end of story. We maybe should have listened to people like Mubarak who said the alternative to military dictatorship was Islamism.
Shouldn't the NYT examine which country(s) may be the scorpion and which country may be the frog that is leading our country, the U.S., into disastrous regime change operations in the ME? How do the American people benefit from any of this? We have lost soldiers, we have lost credibility, trillions in taxpayer dollars, prestige and much more. And we support other leaders that have atrocious human rights records.
15
“They take everything from us,” the Soviet said, “except advice.”
This sentence could easily have been uttered by an American official about a certain "Ally" in the ME.
This sentence could easily have been uttered by an American official about a certain "Ally" in the ME.
4
Blame the Israelis!
And I thought he was referring to the Saudis...
1
Who cares about "powerful allies" and geopolitical chessboards?
The US has meddled enough in Syria and the Middle East, always to DISASTROUS effect, both to the nation involved and to us! We've lost $trillions and thousands of lives--not to mention untold suffering and death by regimes we claim to he 'helping'!
These "involvements" have NEVER worked out well! Why can't the US learn from history?
The US has meddled enough in Syria and the Middle East, always to DISASTROUS effect, both to the nation involved and to us! We've lost $trillions and thousands of lives--not to mention untold suffering and death by regimes we claim to he 'helping'!
These "involvements" have NEVER worked out well! Why can't the US learn from history?
47
It's naive to suggest Putin is so naive that he doesn't know Assad will try to hold onto power now that his allies have saved his regime--for the moment.
The question isn't what Assad believes or wants, but whether he'll be forced to negotiate in good faith regardless. To that end, Putin has undoubtedly been aligning with Assad's other main allies, Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah, to force him to the negotiating table. Why else would the US be going along?
Also, the article fails to mention the most compelling reason for Assad's Alawite minority remaining united and fighting so fiercely. If they don't, they'll be slaughtered to a person or forced into exile--along with all other non-salafist sects, and even the many Syrian Sunnis who have ever held government jobs.
The Syrian opposition was hijacked long-ago by hard-core jihadists, which are the only opposition forces capable of toppling the government. Al-Qaeda offshoot Jabhat al-Nusra are the most effective, along with Ahrar al-Sham and ISIS. All want to control the caliphate, and all promise massacre and severe oppression of all Syrians who don't share their salafist fanaticism.
This is no frog and scorpion story. Assad is well aware of what his options are, and so is Putin. A better image is Assad hanging on a rope half-way down a cliff, with Putin above having grabbed the rope just in time.
The question isn't what Assad believes or wants, but whether he'll be forced to negotiate in good faith regardless. To that end, Putin has undoubtedly been aligning with Assad's other main allies, Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah, to force him to the negotiating table. Why else would the US be going along?
Also, the article fails to mention the most compelling reason for Assad's Alawite minority remaining united and fighting so fiercely. If they don't, they'll be slaughtered to a person or forced into exile--along with all other non-salafist sects, and even the many Syrian Sunnis who have ever held government jobs.
The Syrian opposition was hijacked long-ago by hard-core jihadists, which are the only opposition forces capable of toppling the government. Al-Qaeda offshoot Jabhat al-Nusra are the most effective, along with Ahrar al-Sham and ISIS. All want to control the caliphate, and all promise massacre and severe oppression of all Syrians who don't share their salafist fanaticism.
This is no frog and scorpion story. Assad is well aware of what his options are, and so is Putin. A better image is Assad hanging on a rope half-way down a cliff, with Putin above having grabbed the rope just in time.
72
The idea that there are 'good guys' like in a Western movie is a persistent US fallacy that keeps on giving. I think only Americans could be so naive. Everyone else knows there are very few 'good' guys and ones participation is often situational
3
Good to read a pertinent analysis. For most people and media the only culprit is Assad. Over years, the United States just looked benevolent at ISIS and other extremist groups developing with silent support and money from the Arabian penninsula. To the detriment of Iran then considered to be the most dangerous adversary. It was only Russia's involvement to save the Syrian government that forced president Obama to take action. I am baffled by the purpiortedly religious American political establishment totally disregard of the persecution of the Syrian Christians (and other religious minorities).
4
The facts appear to be that President Bashar Assad cannot hold his country together without the military might of Moscow and regional superiority ofTehran. Sure, he can control most of the area around Damascus, but the rest of Syria is a No Man's Land.
The price for that support, however, is that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to be the ultimate controller of Syria, and having an air and sea port on the Mediterranean just extends Moscow's reach. Iran seems content to work more closely under the Russian Umbrella.
And Moscow and Tehran don't seem to really trust each other. They are allies in name only.
http://thetruthoncommonsense.com
The price for that support, however, is that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to be the ultimate controller of Syria, and having an air and sea port on the Mediterranean just extends Moscow's reach. Iran seems content to work more closely under the Russian Umbrella.
And Moscow and Tehran don't seem to really trust each other. They are allies in name only.
http://thetruthoncommonsense.com
What a useless non-story.
It probably will need an alien invasion to convince the NYT (and other mainstream media outlets) that no matter, how they speculate, no matter how many 'experts' or 'unnamed sources, close to the...' they quote, it still boils down to one simple fact: that they have absolutely no idea what and how the Russians (or the Chinese, or the Vietnamese, or Afghanis, you name it) think.
Covering your eyes and ears isn't the best way to convince others, that you are open-minded.
It probably will need an alien invasion to convince the NYT (and other mainstream media outlets) that no matter, how they speculate, no matter how many 'experts' or 'unnamed sources, close to the...' they quote, it still boils down to one simple fact: that they have absolutely no idea what and how the Russians (or the Chinese, or the Vietnamese, or Afghanis, you name it) think.
Covering your eyes and ears isn't the best way to convince others, that you are open-minded.
6
when push comes to shove, no one takes putin for a ride. Ever.
7
Smart of Putin to declare victory and leave. Assad, Iran and Hezbollah will continue to fight ISIS & Co. for the foreseeable future. We should just pull back and let them. Drop an American soldier into that mess and the parties will all agree to shoot at him and blame the US for their own mistakes.
13
"shifted Western priorities away from Mr. Assad’s ouster. Washington no longer insists he step down at the beginning of a transition."
There are no "western priorities". The assault on the Syrian regime starting roughly 5 years ago was a specific initiative of certain al-jazeera states, Saudi Arabia the prime culprit. Full support, initially covert, then open in all aspects, from the neo-conservative cadre that controls USA military and foreign affairs. European governments had and have zero interest in supporting any more such USA-facilitated or -executed overthrows of governments in the Middle east or in Central Asia. Mrs. Clinton prime among this group.
Israeli governments have been eager to destroy the Syrian state, given that it, primarily under Hafez al-Asad, was unwilling to bend to Israel's overwhelming military advantages. not to mention Israel's 100% backing from USA governments. The current governor of Syria is a reluctant one, given that he long ago had decided on a medical career in the UK and had married a woman born and raised in the UK, albeit of Syrian ancestry. Little doubt that he reluctantly filled in for his dead brother, who was the heir apparent to Hafaz al-Asad.
Furthermore, I doubt that there is the slightest arrogance among those in power in Syria. They are relieved for Russia's help to gain the upper hand militarily against the mercenaries funded by Saudi Arabia, the USA and other assailants.
There are no "western priorities". The assault on the Syrian regime starting roughly 5 years ago was a specific initiative of certain al-jazeera states, Saudi Arabia the prime culprit. Full support, initially covert, then open in all aspects, from the neo-conservative cadre that controls USA military and foreign affairs. European governments had and have zero interest in supporting any more such USA-facilitated or -executed overthrows of governments in the Middle east or in Central Asia. Mrs. Clinton prime among this group.
Israeli governments have been eager to destroy the Syrian state, given that it, primarily under Hafez al-Asad, was unwilling to bend to Israel's overwhelming military advantages. not to mention Israel's 100% backing from USA governments. The current governor of Syria is a reluctant one, given that he long ago had decided on a medical career in the UK and had married a woman born and raised in the UK, albeit of Syrian ancestry. Little doubt that he reluctantly filled in for his dead brother, who was the heir apparent to Hafaz al-Asad.
Furthermore, I doubt that there is the slightest arrogance among those in power in Syria. They are relieved for Russia's help to gain the upper hand militarily against the mercenaries funded by Saudi Arabia, the USA and other assailants.
6
When taking into account both Iraq and Libya, regime change does not seem a very promising outcome.
44
Any way you slice it, Putin and Russia have established a strong beach head in Syria, and the Middle East. And they will not relinquish it, even if Assad rebels at their control of his nation. The U.S. will rue the day that Obama drew his infamous red line in the sand of Syria and then failed to back up his bellicose words with American military force.
All I say that al-Assad, as well as the other dictators overthrown by CIA, does not represent a threat to the Western World, because he is secular. The American-government-orchestrated Arab spring only brought death and destruction to the Middle East and to Europe. Taking out these West-educated, secular dictators only creates power vaccum that is filled by anti-West Islamism. Putin is right by helping al-Assad, who is a barrier between islamism and the Western Civilization
46
And for all those who have urged Obama to rush into Syria, I hope you see how smart it was to wait this out. You'll say that a number of Syrian refugees are involved and represents a huge human tragedy. Yes, I agree. But that human tragedy would not have been averted or slowed down with greater American involvement. Chances are it would have become another quagmire, just like Iraq, costing America far more in terms of in lives and money. So, think about that when you recommend American involvement all over the world. Sometimes sitting out and standing still is a good strategy.
280
WRONG. A safe haven/no fly zone in the north would have kept the refugees in syria, rather than enticing them to flow into Turkey, and then Europe. Those attacks we've seen in Paris and Brussels are on obama's head.
Words have to mean something, and when a US president's doesn't mean any, then no amount of spin or nonsense from this "publication" will cover for that failing.
Words have to mean something, and when a US president's doesn't mean any, then no amount of spin or nonsense from this "publication" will cover for that failing.
Think how much better it would have been if we had not offered arms and suggested "a line in the sand"
The US policy in Syria is anything but smart .. we have no business there.
The US policy in Syria is anything but smart .. we have no business there.
Obama was urged to take action in Syria to prevent Putin from liquidating legitimate opposition under the guise of fighting terror. Obama did nothing, and the legitimate opposition was decimated with impunity, greatly increasing the chance that Assad will continue to hold power and commit egregious human rights atrocities with Putin's backing. Had Obama acted to support the legitimate opposition and protect them from Putin and Assad, hundreds of thousands of lives might have been changed for the better.
2
Assad is not president, he is a dictator. And dictators have a nasty habit of poisoning everything they touch - a sort of reverse Midas touch. Syria and the rest of the middle east would remain a quagmire while the dictators have a free reign. Assad, the Sauds, the Sabah and the rest would have to go and make space for self-determination before middle east can wake up from the nightmare and become great again.
1
What a strange article! Where you think the journalist might give you some geopolitical analysis, all you get is psychological calculation -- as though we were listening in on the closed-door, smoke-filled room scheming of the global mob bosses, with the NY Times sitting in for the biggest mob boss of all, the USA.
4
Russia needs the Syrian government not to collapse, but they certainly don't need the Assads to stay in power. I don't think there is the slightest chance for peace as long as those blood soaked war criminals insist on remaining in power.
Putin needs to understand this.
Putin needs to understand this.
Assad has played a ruthless and cynical hand. He, as much as the Sunni's that funded radical Islamists, has (until recently) nurtured ISIL as a way to frame the conflict as a fight against "terrorists." And his brutality has been the overwhelming driver of refugee flight against a Europe that instead of fighting back (remember Ed Milliband's role in leading The Brit's not to support POTUS on acting on his "Red Line" pledge) prefers to turn back desperate refugees.
But his brutality against civilians should leave no doubt that he is now among the pantheon of history's greatest war criminals. And if we are to avoid our children and our children's children from suffering from the consequences of this conflict we should avoid aligning with this regime for some perceived short-term gains against the death cult of ISIL that he helped foster.
But his brutality against civilians should leave no doubt that he is now among the pantheon of history's greatest war criminals. And if we are to avoid our children and our children's children from suffering from the consequences of this conflict we should avoid aligning with this regime for some perceived short-term gains against the death cult of ISIL that he helped foster.
President Obama recently defended his reversal of a red line being drawn over chemical weapons used by the Assad regime in an interview with journalist, Jeffrey Goldberg. Mr. Obama has rightly concluded that there are no no good options left and no military solutions available when you see the pattern followed by the son in his own father's footsteps. Havez Assad killed tens of thousands of Syrians in the early eighties and now faithful, Bashar is responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. You can't force a foe, who's not an existential threat to embrace Jefferson democracy. Obama and Putin know this all too well and it's Obama's restraint that has been the wise mood.
3
USA, Russia, France, others. Its time to start heeding the advice of T.E. Lawrence of Arabia) and disengage from the Arabs thereby allowing them to sort out their differences among themselves.
We in the West need only to resolve to have good relations with whomever comes out on top.
We in the West need only to resolve to have good relations with whomever comes out on top.
2
Once again, all the brilliant American military and political strategists stumble and bumble through another failed Mideast regime-change folly. Tell me again why Bernie Sanders is unfit to be able to handle international affairs? Perhaps all the Hillary Clinton's and John Kerry's with all their credentials and experience are the ones unfit to handle these affairs. In my lifetime I have lived in an America that has lost or in a best case 'spinning' tied every long-term war we have engaged in (Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan) and muddled up Libya and Syria. I think a Bernie Sanders would not have done nearly so badly, and that Hussein would likely still have Iraq under control with no ISIS in sight and no massacres in Europe.
7
Do not be surprised if Mr. Assad dies from an overdose of plutonium poisoning.
1
Add Trump to the mix and you'll have a perfect cocktail called Molotov.
1
Syria was a stable country before the Sunni uprising. Syrians went to school, had jobs and from what I have read, their economy was improving. It seems Syrians had a more secular society and their women had more rights than some of our allies. Rather than NYT columnists attempting to analyze the leader of Syria, who is doing what any government would do if a segment of its society were attempting to overthrow their government, why not dig deeper and inform readers why the U.S. is so insistent on removing Syria's leader, Assad?
In no way that I can see has our regime change agendas benefited the American people. So who is it benefiting?
In no way that I can see has our regime change agendas benefited the American people. So who is it benefiting?
43
Syria was definitely stable, especially for all of the thousands who were being tortured and murdered in assad's prisons in lebanon and syria. 85% of the country is sunni, and oppressed by and opposed to the 45-year assad family dynasty. Let's stick to the facts, shall we?
1
Middle Eastern intrigue destroys men and ruins nations.
6
What an extraordinary article! Assad is "accused" of using violence to preserve his authority and stalling to avoid regime change. As if any sovereign government does not have the right to counter armed rebellion funded from outside its borders. In this case the Gulf States, Israel and the US have conspired to depose Assad and are responsible for the horrors that are the direct result of their meddling. Once again, the issue of chemical weapons is hauled out: "accusations of chlorine gas use, remain routine" when it is generally accepted that the gas attacks in 2013 were of dubious origin and may very well have been conducted by the rebels. Russia has stepped in and sided with the sovereign government of Syria. This is entirely reasonable and legal.
17
You lied so much in this nonsensical post you appear to be on putin or assad's payroll.
Chlorine barrel bombs could only come from assad since only the SAA has aircraft, and it was assad who attacked the INDIGENOUS syrian protestors from the beginning in 2011 who were marching peacefully in the streets. Stick to the facts, and stop the lies, please.
Chlorine barrel bombs could only come from assad since only the SAA has aircraft, and it was assad who attacked the INDIGENOUS syrian protestors from the beginning in 2011 who were marching peacefully in the streets. Stick to the facts, and stop the lies, please.
1
When Putin is concerned the NYT reporting is always a study in the agenda and never merely facts.
Obama said: Russia would have a "quagmire" on their hands - self serving comment to show his own inevitable limitations in decision making and execution. Putin is in and out materially in six months. While the end isn't time stamped yet, He accomplished what he set out to do. The SA pipeline which Obama promoted is sidelined. Leaders from around the world believe what Putin says when he extends his support. Feckless he is not.
In contrast, Netanyahu doesn't waste time on Obama. Obama in The Atlantic is on record "hating" leaders far and wide since he gets..... no respect.
The contrast with Obama is palpable as to what is truly important. Obama goes to Argentina and opens up relations immediately "after" his buddies and benefactors - the hedge funds - are paid billions in a hold up that shut down a nation. The gating issue is whats good for the banks not phony pretexts of human rights each time. Next week he could reverse on Argentina and no one would be surprised.
Assad has the enormous task to rebuild his country and bring his people back - it would be appropriate for the US, as reparations for their complicity in this war, to get his land back in the Golan Heights that was stolen so he can take the oil revenue to rebuild his nation.
It's time for the US to go away and find another country to destabilize.
Obama said: Russia would have a "quagmire" on their hands - self serving comment to show his own inevitable limitations in decision making and execution. Putin is in and out materially in six months. While the end isn't time stamped yet, He accomplished what he set out to do. The SA pipeline which Obama promoted is sidelined. Leaders from around the world believe what Putin says when he extends his support. Feckless he is not.
In contrast, Netanyahu doesn't waste time on Obama. Obama in The Atlantic is on record "hating" leaders far and wide since he gets..... no respect.
The contrast with Obama is palpable as to what is truly important. Obama goes to Argentina and opens up relations immediately "after" his buddies and benefactors - the hedge funds - are paid billions in a hold up that shut down a nation. The gating issue is whats good for the banks not phony pretexts of human rights each time. Next week he could reverse on Argentina and no one would be surprised.
Assad has the enormous task to rebuild his country and bring his people back - it would be appropriate for the US, as reparations for their complicity in this war, to get his land back in the Golan Heights that was stolen so he can take the oil revenue to rebuild his nation.
It's time for the US to go away and find another country to destabilize.
5
If the press briefing of 3/24/2016 by the President's Press Secretary is any indication of the confusion in our Syria Policy and possible degradation of ISIS capabilities in Syria and the emergence of Assad as a better alternative in the 5 year old fiasco, this report does not help in any way to lessen the confusion in our Syria Policy.
One good news though from Moscow of an understanding between Secretary of State John Kerry and Foreign Minister Lavrov of Russia that by August they would work on having a new Constitution for Syria. No one at this time knows what it would look like, but my prayers are whatever the makeup would be, it be for PEACE.
In order to stop killing in Syria and for that matter throughout the world all parties must stop supplying arms and ammunition to the warring parties. Be it Syria, Palestine/Israel, or Yemen. Some of the known Arms proliferators are Turkey, Saudi Arabia, GCC Members, and the West. And that is true in sending facilitating Jihadis to the areas too. Belgium has most Jihadis from Europe fighting alongside ISIS in Syria, Saudi Arabia has over 2500 Jihadis fighting alongside ISIS in Syria. If we are serious about fighting and eliminating ISIS we need to address the root cause of this cancerous growth and crush its head. The source of ISIS, Al-Qaeda, Taliban, AQIP, or Boko Haram is the Wahhabi ideology propagated by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Are we willing to tackle the Saudis? They are the problem with the money to spend.
One good news though from Moscow of an understanding between Secretary of State John Kerry and Foreign Minister Lavrov of Russia that by August they would work on having a new Constitution for Syria. No one at this time knows what it would look like, but my prayers are whatever the makeup would be, it be for PEACE.
In order to stop killing in Syria and for that matter throughout the world all parties must stop supplying arms and ammunition to the warring parties. Be it Syria, Palestine/Israel, or Yemen. Some of the known Arms proliferators are Turkey, Saudi Arabia, GCC Members, and the West. And that is true in sending facilitating Jihadis to the areas too. Belgium has most Jihadis from Europe fighting alongside ISIS in Syria, Saudi Arabia has over 2500 Jihadis fighting alongside ISIS in Syria. If we are serious about fighting and eliminating ISIS we need to address the root cause of this cancerous growth and crush its head. The source of ISIS, Al-Qaeda, Taliban, AQIP, or Boko Haram is the Wahhabi ideology propagated by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Are we willing to tackle the Saudis? They are the problem with the money to spend.
8
Its nice to see someone else getting played in the muddled ME theater other than the US.
2
Just read that ISIS is in retreat, basically from the Syrians. Seems like Assad may be saving the US from its" greatest existential threat". Perhaps a ticker tape parade in NY would be appropriate.
6
I fail to see how Assad's position improves from here. Russia is already pulling back. If IS weakens, and the threat from their taking control over more territory/weapons is diminished, that allows the US and its allies to push harder for Assad's removal (more so if anti-Assad/IS factions aren't able to capitalize on a weaker IS). Assuming anyone but Senator Sanders is elected in November, the US likelihood for a more forceful intervention is bound to increase. Might Assad's window for a deal be narrowing?
14
Sen Sanders has sounded much more hawkish than I have ever heard him ever on the subject of Daesh, so where do you get the idea that 'if anyone but Sanders wins..." we will not invade and make things worse. I am sure a Pres Sanders will feel the same pressure to get in line with our real masters; generals and industrialists
Haitians have a wonderful and useful expression: "Pa senp," which literally translates as "it's not simple" but really means "things are not always as they seem and are full of complexities."
Americans ought to be astounded by the complexities and nuances of Middle East politics. This article provides a good sampling of it, but it's still hard for western mind to grasp. Now consider that every country in the region has an equally complex political web, in which every word said or unsaid, every action (or inaction) is highly calculated and carries several shades of meaning.
The surface problems are simply to identify: sectarianism, poverty, resources, human rights. However, beneath the surface are complexities Americans would rather not even contemplate, but evidently we have to try.
Americans ought to be astounded by the complexities and nuances of Middle East politics. This article provides a good sampling of it, but it's still hard for western mind to grasp. Now consider that every country in the region has an equally complex political web, in which every word said or unsaid, every action (or inaction) is highly calculated and carries several shades of meaning.
The surface problems are simply to identify: sectarianism, poverty, resources, human rights. However, beneath the surface are complexities Americans would rather not even contemplate, but evidently we have to try.
109
The Scorpion and the Frog is a comically heavy-handed faux-parable written by Orson Welles, and repeated citations over sixty-two years (including here) which take it at face value have never elevated its message above the level of lead-pipe obviousness. His smart joke has devolved into dumb "wisdom."
3
Doesn't matter who wrote it, unless there are royalties involved, yes?
Enshrining this cynical, racist joke as age-old wisdom is the lie. It's relentlessly foisted as insight into the heathen enemy soul on Tea Party web sites by purporting that it's a Middle Eastern fable. It is not. It would lose its currency if it were properly cited, "there's an old Orson Welles bit, that goes..."
It's really remarkable to see the length to which U.S. news media will go to in order to kowtow to Saudi Arabia's and Israel's interests. Secular dictators are far, far more preferable to the Islamists, despite the fact that Saudi Arabia and Israel would each prefer to have a weak and dysfunctional Syria (for different reasons each). These countries in the Middle East possess arbitrary borders that were drawn up by Britain and France nearly 100 years ago. They cannot function without strong leadership. Unless you'd like to see another 50 years of internecine conflict and chaos in countries like Syria, they will have to be ruled by dictators. There is no way around it.
63
This really has nothing to do with kowtowing to Israel's interests. Saudi Arabia's leaders are like used car dealers: they pawn off their faulty cars on unassuming and gullible customers and then laugh all the way to the bank.
1
The only Mideast country that was established in the wake of WWI that
is and has remained free and democratic is Israel. Too bad that instead
of continuing their self-destructive policy of trying to destroy it it should -and still
could - be taken by everyone else including the Palestinians as a sterling example of what really works. Had the latter been willing to accept any compromise
from day one their own plight, and Israel's, would have been substantially reduced,
if not negated.
is and has remained free and democratic is Israel. Too bad that instead
of continuing their self-destructive policy of trying to destroy it it should -and still
could - be taken by everyone else including the Palestinians as a sterling example of what really works. Had the latter been willing to accept any compromise
from day one their own plight, and Israel's, would have been substantially reduced,
if not negated.
When did Israel ever say they want a weak and dysfunctional Syria? What could Israel possibly gain from an Islamist or otherwise chaotic Damascus? Israel couldn't care less what kind of government the Syrians have, as long as it's stable and doesn't try to force Israel to remove its artillery from the Golan Heights.
1
Mr. Assad certainly looks cheerful for a ruler whose nation has lost half its population through death and displacement.
15
... thanks to the US.
The question not asked is: What are the options left after the withdrawal of Mr Assad?
I am afraid that the so-called Arab Spring, so strongly and naively asked for by western diplomats, will turn into an biblical inferno.
The rapist of Islam (ISIS) are ready to fill the gap he leaves.
The other alternative is al Qaeda operating under the name al Nusra. The last option makes you ask where we have been fighting for in Iraq and Afghanistan ?
I am afraid that the so-called Arab Spring, so strongly and naively asked for by western diplomats, will turn into an biblical inferno.
The rapist of Islam (ISIS) are ready to fill the gap he leaves.
The other alternative is al Qaeda operating under the name al Nusra. The last option makes you ask where we have been fighting for in Iraq and Afghanistan ?
13
Right now I am more worried about Turkey. They shot down two Russian planes, they worked out a deal with Obama allowing them to kill Kurds in Iraq, now they worked out a deal with the EU to get free entrance into Europe and are making a fortune of EU taxpayer money to get rid of Syrian Migrants. Russia only wanted to show Obama how to solve a little problem but they'll be back after November when they know that it is either Trump or Clinton as President thus fine-tuning their long-term involvement in the Middle East. Between Turkey and Russia the Middle East and Europe will become a disaster.
8
I'm so sick of hearing about the morass that is the Middle East. Can we name one Muslim country in the region that has a thriving economy, a decent human rights record, a decent standard of living? Other than Dubai, no, and it's run by ex-pats. It's just endless war and retribution, barbaric customs and laws and men and families that are only there to enrich themselves. It doesn't matter if it's Assad, or any of the other puppet leaders, we will never understand the region and the president is right to stand back and not meddle. The only thing these countries export is oil and people. Keep on topping, but we shouldn't get in any deeper, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Libya...let's end the list of failures. Let's not be the frog.
86
Oman
@ thewriterstuff-thewriter, I have an intense distate for generalizations and assertions. Here is a suggestion for you if you want me to take you seriously.
Pick a country, let's say Turkey or Iran and then pick a few variables and compare those countries with either the whole USA or perhaps the Red States. Some variables: % of women as students in universities, incarceration rates, capital punishment and more.
Larry
Pick a country, let's say Turkey or Iran and then pick a few variables and compare those countries with either the whole USA or perhaps the Red States. Some variables: % of women as students in universities, incarceration rates, capital punishment and more.
Larry
Many recent violent disruptions taking place in Middle East are at behest of Saudi Arabia, and with U.S. involvement - the conflict taking place within Syria is no different.
3
Could be. But any such bet could backfire soon. Russia certainly has interest in protecting sea ports, landing rights and a relationship that goes back quite some distance; but that can get pretty old pretty fast. The real advantage to Russia is that Putin gets to kill Islamist jihadists in Syria instead of being forced to kill them in enclaves of the Russian Federation.
Of course, he’s already killed a lot of jihadists, and sooner or later Ukraine may heat up again and two-front involvements aren’t trivial affairs for regional powers. Heck, even China might get bellicose on their border despite that petro deal, and that ALWAYS sucks up resources.
Then, Assad is hardly irreplaceable to the West. Yes, to some degree he occupies the attention of ISIS, but anyone in his position in a caretaker role could do the same, particularly as part of a confederation of Syrian tribal entities that DIDN’T include ISIS. And without Russia and the actions of the U.S. and its allies, that attention would be focused on Assad’s military again, rather than scurrying to avoid U.S. drone hits.
In short, Assad appears to continue to skitter on very thin ice but for Russia and the U.S., whose interest in him personally probably doesn’t have much strength. He’d do best to listen seriously to Vladimir Putin, talk seriously about that confederation, and angle to lead it himself. He could start by offering to support a “safe area” to relocate war displaced and ease pressures on Turkey and Europe.
Of course, he’s already killed a lot of jihadists, and sooner or later Ukraine may heat up again and two-front involvements aren’t trivial affairs for regional powers. Heck, even China might get bellicose on their border despite that petro deal, and that ALWAYS sucks up resources.
Then, Assad is hardly irreplaceable to the West. Yes, to some degree he occupies the attention of ISIS, but anyone in his position in a caretaker role could do the same, particularly as part of a confederation of Syrian tribal entities that DIDN’T include ISIS. And without Russia and the actions of the U.S. and its allies, that attention would be focused on Assad’s military again, rather than scurrying to avoid U.S. drone hits.
In short, Assad appears to continue to skitter on very thin ice but for Russia and the U.S., whose interest in him personally probably doesn’t have much strength. He’d do best to listen seriously to Vladimir Putin, talk seriously about that confederation, and angle to lead it himself. He could start by offering to support a “safe area” to relocate war displaced and ease pressures on Turkey and Europe.
23
..."anyone in [Assad's] position in a caretaker role could do the same"
I think you might want to reconsider that statement. Assad is no accident. He inherited a custom-tailored government that his father perfected over 30 years. That kind of power cannot be destroyed and recreated overnight. Just look at Iraq. With Assad, there is civil war. Without Assad, there will be civil war.
I think you might want to reconsider that statement. Assad is no accident. He inherited a custom-tailored government that his father perfected over 30 years. That kind of power cannot be destroyed and recreated overnight. Just look at Iraq. With Assad, there is civil war. Without Assad, there will be civil war.
3
mford:
Respectfully, I'd suggest that this reliance on one personality is wrong. As with Fidel Castro and his brother, a faceless nomenklatura was put into place over those decades that supported the Assads and who are thoroughly familiar with how to make trains run under it. We'll find out with the Castros when they inevitably depart the scene, just as with Assad should he lose power, that someone else will step forth who can make the machine hum just as they and he did.
Respectfully, I'd suggest that this reliance on one personality is wrong. As with Fidel Castro and his brother, a faceless nomenklatura was put into place over those decades that supported the Assads and who are thoroughly familiar with how to make trains run under it. We'll find out with the Castros when they inevitably depart the scene, just as with Assad should he lose power, that someone else will step forth who can make the machine hum just as they and he did.
I seriously doubt Assad has any interest whatever in offering "to relocate war displaced and ease pressures on Turkey and Europe." The plight of those displaced--mainly by Assad's indiscriminate use of barrel bombing, mortar lobbing and artillery shelling in population centers--has never been of any noticeable concern of his military. Assad not only could also care less about the pressures on Turkey of more than a million displaced Syrians currently taking refuge there, but also likely takes sick pleasure from the knowing these refugees will help to bring about Erdogan's fall from power or worse. For Erdogan's unneighborly government has been an active supporter of the anti-Assad rebellion, including tacitly facilitating the manning, arming and financing of jihadists in Syria, including ISIS.
Although Erdogan and Assad detest each other, they are two sides of the same authoritarian coin. Hence, Assad will do nothing to ease the burdens on Turkey's already overtaxed infrastructure from the refugees, most of whom need to housed, fed, educated, and policed. The burden will be eased only temporarily by the $6.7 billion Turkey extorted from Europe recently. Turks will not tolerate the refugees taking what few employment opportunities remain in their country. There is certain to be a major backlash by Turks against the refugees. Either Erdogan or Turkish democracy will pay the price of that backlash. Either way Assad will have some measure of revenge.
Although Erdogan and Assad detest each other, they are two sides of the same authoritarian coin. Hence, Assad will do nothing to ease the burdens on Turkey's already overtaxed infrastructure from the refugees, most of whom need to housed, fed, educated, and policed. The burden will be eased only temporarily by the $6.7 billion Turkey extorted from Europe recently. Turks will not tolerate the refugees taking what few employment opportunities remain in their country. There is certain to be a major backlash by Turks against the refugees. Either Erdogan or Turkish democracy will pay the price of that backlash. Either way Assad will have some measure of revenge.
1
With no love lost between Putin and Assad, it's the latter who rather outsmarted the former by forcing him to come to his help, militarily, financially, and diplomatically, and thereby got a new lease of life with licence to kill and displace more Syrians.
3
It was only a few years ago that Mrs. Assad was one of the darlings on the fashion pages of this newspaper, with glowing comments on her designer clothes, her suave manner in European meetings of wives of world leaders (or dictators), and her youthful open manner. So where is she now? Holed up in Paris or Switzerland with the numbered bank accounts, the family/country's jewels, and trunks full of those designer clothes that could have paid for schools, hospitals and food for her husband's dying people?
112
How about providing some legitimate links to back up your allegations about Mrs. Assad.
2
She is hanging with Mrs. Yasser Arafat.
And back then American and European diplomats were pressuring Israel to return the Golan Heights to Assad's control, though they previously had been used by Syria as a location from which to shell Israeli population centers. Oh, wait, did I say back then? This is a current U.N. measure (http://www.unwatch.org/un-to-adopt-20-resolutions-against-israel-3-on-re......."Determines once more that the continued occupation of the Syrian Golan and its de facto annexation constitute a stumbling block in the way of achieving a just, comprehensive and lasting peace in the region"
Of course, that's the problem in Syria. How could I have forgotten?
Of course, that's the problem in Syria. How could I have forgotten?
1
Please stop. Articles like this are why the Middle East is such a quagmire. There is a segment of the political establishment that views the world through a geo-political prism, a big chessboard that gauges who is up, who is down, who loses standing, who gains the advantage, who needs to provide "leadership," who can allies "depend" on, etc. etc. Look at the mess this has resulted in and what this kind of maneuvering has done to the people in that part of the world. You are contributing to that.
46
I don't understand ... you seem to want the NYT to stop publishing articles on Middle East complexities. How will this help anyone? An America that thinks there are easily identifiable good and bad guys in the region is an America that will continue to wreak havoc with simplistic interventions.
Hate to tell you, but that is the way of the world, always has been, always will be..To those playing, it is a game of chess.
Putin wants to keep his strategic Mediterranean naval and air bases in Syria, hence his continuing support for Assad. Nothing more to it than that.
11
Well, for 20 years every move the USA and Russia has made in the middle east is wrong. Every move. Why change now?
24
Well said. With all of our "experts" on the Middle East we still don't understand that this is a tribal, feudal, society. As soon as we leave-with whatever "solution" we come up with, they will go back to fighting themselves as they have for the last several thousand years. The only difference is that we have flooded the region with weapons. That will help a lot.
2
"USA and Russia has made in the middle east is wrong."
Please do not forget Afghanistan, perhaps Ukraine and Vietnam, not only in middle east!
Please do not forget Afghanistan, perhaps Ukraine and Vietnam, not only in middle east!
1
"tribal, feudal, society"
Middle East is countries are much more civilized than many Western countries. Violent crime rates such as rape, murder, alcoholism and drug use was much less in Iraq, Syria and Libya before western powers messed up these countries. Even now they probably have lower crime rates than western countries, similar to other Muslim countries such as Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Having more SUV's is not a good proof of civilization, having less crime is.
Middle East is countries are much more civilized than many Western countries. Violent crime rates such as rape, murder, alcoholism and drug use was much less in Iraq, Syria and Libya before western powers messed up these countries. Even now they probably have lower crime rates than western countries, similar to other Muslim countries such as Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Having more SUV's is not a good proof of civilization, having less crime is.
An, the old divide and conquer strategy. Sow distrust amongst allies with fake news and rumors. I highly doubt Assad and Putin would be stupid enough to fall for this old colonialism strategy.
11
My thoughts are that Russia left because they are broke due to low oil prices.
9
Russia pulled part of Russia's military forces out of Syria for PR reasons, destabilizing shock value and to encourage others to honor the cease fire. He still has an army and supporting equipment in and surrounding Syria. He is still targeting IS, rebels and any faction that breaks the cease fire.
Russia is hardly broke (if they are, the US would be in receivership), they have certainly been effected by the drop in the value of oil, but all of the countries that conspired to devalue oil have been hurt worse than Russia.
Russia's reserves are up sharply. Under Putin, since 2000, reserves have grown from $13b to $380b+ and he has paid down Russia's debt so that is one of if not the smallest of all major economies.
Russia is hardly broke (if they are, the US would be in receivership), they have certainly been effected by the drop in the value of oil, but all of the countries that conspired to devalue oil have been hurt worse than Russia.
Russia's reserves are up sharply. Under Putin, since 2000, reserves have grown from $13b to $380b+ and he has paid down Russia's debt so that is one of if not the smallest of all major economies.
I'm not sure he's wrong. Putin needs him for domestic reasons and the West for the "war on terror." I'm not sure he's completely wrong.
3
What led to the Syrian government's "crackdown" was armed insurrection fomented and backed by external forces aimed at regime change. What government in the world today would fold its arms and let it happen? As for how to account for the steadfast support given to Assad by millions of Syrians, well it must be because they are fearful, and not because they don't want to see their country ravaged and pillaged like many of their neighbors.
16
You're woefully misinformed. Every Syrian I know (and being Syrian, I know many) both inside and outside the country want to see Assaad dead. Even before he killed or displaced half the country and surrendered the other half to Iran, he was a brutal dictator who's policies sought to rob the country blind all for the benefit of his family and his sect. He is pure evil.
The unholy alliance of Russia, Syria,Iran, & Obama is slowly but surely unraveling.The main culprit is Obama, who could of & should of removed Assad from Power.Obama is responsible for the flow of immigrants that are and will continue to be a cause of terrorism in Europe.ISIS is still alive and well, in spite of what Kerry says. Russia could have eradicated ISIS but kept them alive knowing that ISIS will continue to be a Thorn in the side of America & Nato,.All all hell is breaking out in the Middle East & Europe,while Obama is counting the minutes & the days until he leaves office & leaves the problems to his successor.America & Nato needed a leader that Obama didn't want or couldn't be.
4
Pray , do tell . How well did it turn out after we helped take out Gaddafi in Libya ?
16
Or got rid of...what was his name?? ...in Iraq. Now THERE was a bit of textbook regime change. Or was it????
3
Arjay,
According to the thinking of of you & Adoma,Despots should be left alone to oppress their people, & kill and destroy at will.
According to the thinking of of you & Adoma,Despots should be left alone to oppress their people, & kill and destroy at will.
1
Foreign Affairs, the journal of international relations and U.S. foreign policy, ran a piece around 1990 that detailed the complicated machinations engaged in by Hafez al-Assad to keep him minority sect in power. The piece included the 1982 Hama Massacre, a military operation during which it's estimated that Syrian government forces killed 20,000 Syrian citizens in a successful attempt to rid themselves of a Sunni Muslim opposition led by the Muslim Brotherhood.
The Alawites running Syria have been to this rodeo before. They know how to win it, and they are quite likely to be in power when the dust finally settles.
The Alawites running Syria have been to this rodeo before. They know how to win it, and they are quite likely to be in power when the dust finally settles.
2
American and other western capitalists caused all of this mess.
3
NEXT, you'll blame it all on the POTUS!
I'm guessing that Bashar-the-Butcher-Son-of-a-Butcher is actually conspiring with ISIS, effectively allowing them to keep a large chunk of Syria in order that the West will continue to consider him the lesser of the two evils and leave him alone to run Damascus and other centers of population. He's an expert schemer, having had an excellent mentor, but I'm still betting that he'll end up with a noose around his neck in the not-too-distant future.
75
Assad may well be right that Russia and perhaps the US needs him more than he needs them....but he shouldn't underestimate the incapacity of Russia and the United States to get that wrong. After all, if we had left Saddam in place, the region might well be far safer than it is now. Hassan bet that the US would recognize that, but he underestimated our potential for stupidity.
133
Well put. Democracy isn't for everyone. Some countries need a dictator like Assad to function.
1
Stupidity may not be that simple.
The Iraq war was a phenomenal profit center and accelerated the amassing of wealth to the 1%.
There are many definition of victory. One is economic victory and sometimes it appears is has nothing to do with military victory.
The Iraq war was a phenomenal profit center and accelerated the amassing of wealth to the 1%.
There are many definition of victory. One is economic victory and sometimes it appears is has nothing to do with military victory.
Two delusional narcissists walk into a bar...
113
The third one is still polishing his Peace Prize after he started 4 wars and escalated his predecessor's 2.
4
Perfect.
As usual, the US is supporting the wrong side to the benefit of ...the job security of the diplomatic corps.
4
Putin is not exactly another Ghandi or Lincoln but he is also not the devil incarnate that many in America make him out to be at least in foreign affairs.
Although he is reviving the vestiges of the cold war just like the neo cons here are doing........
He is more advanced than the neo cons here...They want us go get involved in no win wars all over the globe, he just wants to get involved in them close to home.
He is not stupid, he knows if he stays in the area, he will face the same disaster than the USSR faced in Afgan. circa 1980 and we faced are facing in Iraq...
He wants to show Russia's might by bringing in his air force just like we do but also would love to broker a peace treaty between Assad and his enemies, something we have yet to do.
Although he is reviving the vestiges of the cold war just like the neo cons here are doing........
He is more advanced than the neo cons here...They want us go get involved in no win wars all over the globe, he just wants to get involved in them close to home.
He is not stupid, he knows if he stays in the area, he will face the same disaster than the USSR faced in Afgan. circa 1980 and we faced are facing in Iraq...
He wants to show Russia's might by bringing in his air force just like we do but also would love to broker a peace treaty between Assad and his enemies, something we have yet to do.
35
Assad is about eighteen months away from being dragged behind a Jeep around Damascus.
27
And sadly it is hard to decide if that is what he deserves and to pray that will happen, or if we are better off having him stay in power.
Wishing doesn't make it so.
I don't wish for it.
Mr. Assad said he has the ability to stand up to the whole world.
Sounds like the US presidential candidates.
Kindness now is no longer a virtue. It is seen as a detriment, a weakness.
Leaders, role models, really?
Sounds like the US presidential candidates.
Kindness now is no longer a virtue. It is seen as a detriment, a weakness.
Leaders, role models, really?
11
The analogy is misplaced. Assad may indeed sting Putin. But if he does, only he will sink. So we must assume that he realizes this. A political deal is possible, and only that can help to stop the twin evils of the war and the flow of refugees.
7
let em duke it out in Arabia, right friends?
we know how this story goes. meanwhile, refugees flood into Brussels, The Iron Curtain of Jihad expands into our capitals, and we are left with a new Cold War called Cold Reality.
Is it not so hard to see?
we know how this story goes. meanwhile, refugees flood into Brussels, The Iron Curtain of Jihad expands into our capitals, and we are left with a new Cold War called Cold Reality.
Is it not so hard to see?
2
Just stop accepting immigrants from that part of the world. Seriously, if Belgium (and Europe by extension) is that short of cheap labor, I am sure there are enough Chinese and Indian willing to migrate to Belgium.
1
A far cry from earlier U.S. visions of Assad deposed. Apparently Washington never effectively factored the Russia’s role or their successful play to preserve this regime, the anchor for their most successful Russian alliance in the region.
Any effort to hold Assad accountable for the horrendous atrocities during the civil war seems farfetched given the likely preservation of the Assad regime and continuing Russian patronage.
The fate of millions of Syrians displaced becomes an open question in the face of a return to status quo Alawite control and strongman governance in Damascus.
Another Middle East blood bath of epic proportions in which American intervention proved largely feckless.
Any effort to hold Assad accountable for the horrendous atrocities during the civil war seems farfetched given the likely preservation of the Assad regime and continuing Russian patronage.
The fate of millions of Syrians displaced becomes an open question in the face of a return to status quo Alawite control and strongman governance in Damascus.
Another Middle East blood bath of epic proportions in which American intervention proved largely feckless.
90
I think you mean, "Another Middle East blood bath of epic proportions in which American non-intervention proved largely feckless."
3
You really think this is going to allow Assad to take back control of the whole country? Even a much stronger Russian involvement wouldn't do that.
As far as this being a Russian success, does that factor in how this appears to the overwhelming majority of Muslims, who are Sunnis? Isn't Putin paying a heavy price in Muslim public opinion for his sponsorship of a hated anti-Sunni regime?
Putin saved the regime from collapse. What happens next is very much an open book.
As far as this being a Russian success, does that factor in how this appears to the overwhelming majority of Muslims, who are Sunnis? Isn't Putin paying a heavy price in Muslim public opinion for his sponsorship of a hated anti-Sunni regime?
Putin saved the regime from collapse. What happens next is very much an open book.
1
I guess a better alternative would have been for us to march in there guns blazing, spending trillions, and then. after pacifying the place, have to continue to run it and pay for running it for how many years? Losing the lives of how many of my fellow Americans in the process? And the reason for doing this? The glory of America? Glorious to whom?
2
Not even once it was mentioned in the article Syrian people support for Assad, how convinient.
44
99.9 per cent of Syrians vote for Assad. Because they love him.
5
Kinda tough to support your country's leader when he's bombed you and your city dead and called you a "terrorist". See: Homs, or what remains of it.
1
In typical western fashion, if you support Assad, you are not a true Syrian.
3
"Mr. Assad's advisers believe not only that he has passed "the risk period" and will remain the president of Syria..."
Remain the president of what Syria?
Remain the president of what Syria?
8
I feel that it's a disgrace that President Assad has been able to remain in power for this long. The man has committed acts of chemical warfare against his own people, ruthlessly leveled cities to rubble, and continues to flaunt peace negotiations at every turn. His ability to remain a leader of his country is a direct slap to the face for Western leaders who struggle to address the effects that this war has inflicted upon the region and the refugee crisis that has engulfed Europe. The country of Syria can not begin the process of healing and rebuilding the nation without removing the very dictator who has destroyed it.
3
And the alternative is? The wonder that is Iraq, with our US fingerprints all over it? No thank you.
147
Removing Gaddafi when we had no business doing so is directly responsible for the rise of ISIS in, and destabilization of, the entire African continent. Obama need only have reflected upon Bush's stupendous error in Iraq to see what was coming in Libya, but he wanted regime change even when the Pentagon warned him not to do it. He then rinsed and repeated his error in going on to try the same in Syria. Even with the benefit of hindsight, Obama has twice committed Bush's errors in seeking regime change without a plan. Without Russian intervention in Syria, Obama would likely not have pursued a settlement in Syria because he is more concerned with unseating Assad than defeating that pesky JV team.
27
the mess that is Iraq can only be replaced in one way, steps toward diplomacy and some sort of domestic integrity towards that country established by some NEW US leadership and time.....something has to be done for the long term though......genocide 2 centuries later is not uncommon in this region..........
The U.S. is playing Texas Hold 'em with a much better poker player. He calls our bluffs and, unlike us, he's "all in."
10
Luck trumps skill in poker every time and Obama is a pretty lucky president. His incompetence only let CIA and Department of State started 4 wars. It could easily been worse.
2
In poker, what matters is not how many bluffs you run or how many hands you call - only the size of the pots you win. Syria is a tiny pot, shrinking every day.
Good analogy, Frake - thanks for making it!
Good analogy, Frake - thanks for making it!
This all started with Assad's attempt to maintain hegemony over Lebanon including the assassination of Rafic Hariri. Mission accomplished? Not so much.
6
Unfortunately, many of these Arab countries cannot operate without a strong autocratic leader. As Putin and Israel both understand, in such a country, the leader has a great deal to lose if they allow chaos and radical factions to extend their reach beyond the country's border, and can therefor be controlled. In the places where we have either actually directly or indirectly militarily toppled a leader (Iraq and Lybia) or encouraged such overthrow (Egypt, Syria, Yemen) things get very dangerous and uncontrollable. In Iraq things remained relatively in control, and also scarred the willies out of Iran, the largest sponsor of terrorism, while we had a lot of people with a lot of weapons present, but that has disappeared. We need to rethink our policy.
15
Saudi Arabia is the biggest sponsor of terrorism, not Iran.
19
Putting aside the ruler dependent structures the Assads put in place, it is vital to remember that Syria has no history of stable,let alone democratic, government. Between 1946 and 1956, Syria had 20 different cabinets and drafted four separate constitutions. This is what gave rise to Assad.
As much as regime change appeals, destabilizing Syria was an enormous mistake. Getting rid of Assad would, alas, probably be an even graver one,
As much as regime change appeals, destabilizing Syria was an enormous mistake. Getting rid of Assad would, alas, probably be an even graver one,
2
The Russians are not married to Assad but they will not all him to be overthrown by the force of a conglomeration of American and Saudi backed rebels.
The Russian have material interests in western Syria and have no plans to abandon them.
They will see that Assad eventually gets his walking papers but event will have to be by a negotiated settlement where these interests are secured.
The war as it exists now serves no ones interests except ISIS. So there is a possibility that the US and Russia can come together with some agreement that allows America once again to save face from a commitment to the inept rebels.
Getting Turkey and the Saudis onboard will be more difficult.
The Russian have material interests in western Syria and have no plans to abandon them.
They will see that Assad eventually gets his walking papers but event will have to be by a negotiated settlement where these interests are secured.
The war as it exists now serves no ones interests except ISIS. So there is a possibility that the US and Russia can come together with some agreement that allows America once again to save face from a commitment to the inept rebels.
Getting Turkey and the Saudis onboard will be more difficult.
12
Great look on the man on far left's face. Shows what many of us don't realize; Assad has immense legitimacy still with a portion of the country, even though the number of bodyguards he has (needs) portrays an opposing view of the president.
9
If you were standing there you would have that look too.
1
Russia supports its allies.
11
Doing that to a certain degree is ok, but if he does what the USSR did in Afgan. or we are doing in Iraq, Russia, like we are now we be condemned to face the disaster that follows.
Learn from history or be condemned to reap its worse lessons..
Learn from history or be condemned to reap its worse lessons..
2
Russia has a naval base in Syria which they're anxious to keep. They have no interest in Assad per se.
8
Stu...I agree on both points....#1 is absolute....#2 is important, not because they personally like the guy but need him to have it more likely the base will stay..
1
Don't be surprised if Putin takes out Assad.
22
No, he cannot. But he will be conveniently looking the other way when the end comes for Assad.
4
Did you read the article?
Assad is the only thing holding it all together. Syria devolves into a chaos that even Putin can't use without Assad.
And without Assad Putin has no leverage in the region, no big power pretensions, no proxy to play off against the US, no market for all those older weapons systems...
Assad is the only thing holding it all together. Syria devolves into a chaos that even Putin can't use without Assad.
And without Assad Putin has no leverage in the region, no big power pretensions, no proxy to play off against the US, no market for all those older weapons systems...
34
Can't be soon enough for me.
What a wonderful, thoughtful piece of reporting. Should be required reading for everyone who cares about the USA including those interested in being President. Message. Have a mission. Do it. Leave.
72
Exactly spencer....whether you agree with the move or not....any downside is minimized and any upside is maximized.
1
Do it and stay. We left Afghanistan and Iraq and things got much worse.
how are we doing now? is there a planned exit or is this more...let's see what happens... i.e. no plan