I can't help but think that this is an over-simplification. I will admit but there are plenty of people that didn't finish High School, I just have a really hard time believing but there are quite as many high school dropouts as there are Trump voters. I think the issue is the recovery. It's a very much an uneven thing. There are many people who simply will not trust a government program, for whatever reason, and he speaks to these people. He wouldn't solve their problems. I've heard little if any plans from his own mouth that could actually happen. I don't plan on voting for him, but I could see why someone would.
3
While I don't deny the data, I'd like to see the same data stream for Obama in 2008. Media never giving you both sides of the story. EVER.
11
No interActive map? Why not?
3
Isn't this the same demographic that watches Jerry Springer and Duck Dynasty? As H. L. Mencken observed almost a century ago "No one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public. And Trump University seems another good example of courting that education-needy segment.
8
and Trumpf's demographics vary in what way or degree from those of Cruz / Rubio?
3
Some people like to say that each of Trump's supporters has a "story." I'm sure everybody in Germany and Italy in the 1940s had a "story." I'm sure everybody in ISIS has a "story." At some point in the march to fascism the "stories" that absolve individuals stop mattering.
13
If we don't design programs to help people who can't make it through regular high school find employment, they will destroy the country. We can't just let these people fail. It's up to us to find a place in capitalism for people who can't (or won't) compete on their own.
11
What a bad man Trump is using this anger to fulfill his selfish lust for power.
9
Has any of this been correlated with areas of high drug abuse, especially methamphetamine and opioids?
5
Where in the world do commenters come up with baseless statements like this?
"61% [of Trump supporters] are white with no high school diploma. This is the Party of Stupid..."
I agree Trump is a jerk, but there's no need to misstate facts to make that point. Remarks like this one make somebody other than Trump supporters look like "the Party of Stupid."
"61% [of Trump supporters] are white with no high school diploma. This is the Party of Stupid..."
I agree Trump is a jerk, but there's no need to misstate facts to make that point. Remarks like this one make somebody other than Trump supporters look like "the Party of Stupid."
4
There is actually a symmetry of sorts here: establishment elites IGNORED Bernie Sanders.
And establishment elites ABHORRED Donald Trump.
The elites wanted Clinton and Bush all along and are now upset with 'we the people' for our naughty choices.
I.e. they want to stick to business as usual, and don't want us to try any spicy new foods. In the old days there were food riots. We're seeing a little bit of that passion now. I find it refreshing.
And establishment elites ABHORRED Donald Trump.
The elites wanted Clinton and Bush all along and are now upset with 'we the people' for our naughty choices.
I.e. they want to stick to business as usual, and don't want us to try any spicy new foods. In the old days there were food riots. We're seeing a little bit of that passion now. I find it refreshing.
6
Erroneously, I saw the rot coming from the left, from where it has been coming for a while. It turns out that the rot is simply coming, from all pores and orifices. "Hear the trumpets. Hear the pipers..."
2
It seems like the NYT is under constant fire for its biased election coverage. Although I usually disagree, this particular article is unfair and clearly intended to embarrass and denigrate supporters of Donald Trump. Thoughtful journalists would conduct a fair comparison of voter characteristics among all remaining candidates. In its current form, this is a smear piece meant to confirm bias, and it will only lead to further polarization (and drive away readers). This is not the quality I expect fro the NYT.
11
After 9/11 I was "where are you from" at least a thousand times as never before.
As Trump responded to bullies in the Q&A aka "debates" I was asked a few times a day "where are you from".
My answer was always the same where I am from. When that does not satisfy them a few might politely ask if I am originally a Canadian, but most impolitely ask if I am an American. My answer in disbelief is always, "Originally? You mean originally?"
There's no such thing as 100% in statistics, so I will couch my comment by saying 98% actually fall for it and enthusiastically respond, "Yes, originally".
I respond immediately, "Tanzania!". When they do not laugh I sometimes become more specific saying we came from Olduval Gorge in the Great Rift Valley near Ethiopia.
Rarely does anyone know the origins of the original settlers of North and South America. Some still live in communities less than a three hour drive from where I am often asked.
At least this is one recent theory from DNA remains found a half century or so in Argentina.
As Trump responded to bullies in the Q&A aka "debates" I was asked a few times a day "where are you from".
My answer was always the same where I am from. When that does not satisfy them a few might politely ask if I am originally a Canadian, but most impolitely ask if I am an American. My answer in disbelief is always, "Originally? You mean originally?"
There's no such thing as 100% in statistics, so I will couch my comment by saying 98% actually fall for it and enthusiastically respond, "Yes, originally".
I respond immediately, "Tanzania!". When they do not laugh I sometimes become more specific saying we came from Olduval Gorge in the Great Rift Valley near Ethiopia.
Rarely does anyone know the origins of the original settlers of North and South America. Some still live in communities less than a three hour drive from where I am often asked.
At least this is one recent theory from DNA remains found a half century or so in Argentina.
1
Trump's supporters have figured out that the rest of the GOP has been using and abusing them for years. Trump is the best choice for them among the available candidates. Why is this surprising?
3
These are the people who had a strangled hold on union and manufacturing jobs that paid a livable and middle class wage without a high school education.
They thought the world as they knew it would last forever and failed to adapt to the "new world order" as song by the late great Curtis Mayfield.
Capitalist like Donald Trump shut down plants in America and shipped their jobs abroad to countries that exploit workers and pay slave wages. How pathetic and sad these people think the capitalist Trump will now be their savior.
But I guess we should not be surprised; they have always lived an illusion.
They thought the world as they knew it would last forever and failed to adapt to the "new world order" as song by the late great Curtis Mayfield.
Capitalist like Donald Trump shut down plants in America and shipped their jobs abroad to countries that exploit workers and pay slave wages. How pathetic and sad these people think the capitalist Trump will now be their savior.
But I guess we should not be surprised; they have always lived an illusion.
3
The disdain that the NYT readership has for the DT supporters is palpable. These are just a bunch of uneducated bigots and anybody that they support is awful, as the NYT has reminded us over and over again. Yet it is the children of these people who are over represented in the military, the same children that the NYT would like to see fighting in Syria and who were sent to die in Iraq, a war that the NYT enthusiastically promoted. These folks are starting to wake up and maybe someday they will counsel their kids against joining the military. I hope that happens soon and then all the neocons can send their kids off to war but I don't think that will happen.
6
The revolution has finally arrived. The power structure in the uS have no one to blame but themselves.
There are no longer any jobs for these people besides Walmart, so I understand their anger and wish there was a solution.
As long as Republicans run Congress, things are going to get much worse. They will continue to worship at the feet of mammon and watch as tides of discontent, unleashed by Trump, Cruz, Limbaugh, etc., wash over the US in waves of rejection and discord!
It's NOT going to be pretty so fasten your seatbelt!
There are no longer any jobs for these people besides Walmart, so I understand their anger and wish there was a solution.
As long as Republicans run Congress, things are going to get much worse. They will continue to worship at the feet of mammon and watch as tides of discontent, unleashed by Trump, Cruz, Limbaugh, etc., wash over the US in waves of rejection and discord!
It's NOT going to be pretty so fasten your seatbelt!
3
Trump has thrown out many unsavory epithets at his rivals and received equal numbers from them. That his supporters are "High School only" shouldn't be one of them. America's greatest attribute is the 'lack' of "class" pride, prejudice or hatred. Indeed, had there been no "Trump", Bernie's rallies and vote tallies would be much larger. On the other hand, if Bernie loses to Hillary and the latter doesn't make more "space" for the 'high-school only" , Trump would be the beneficiary.
1
Trump is preying mercilessly on peoples pain and fear, especially poor, unemployed white people as is clearly pointed out. These people think he will protect them and bring them justice by deporting of immigrants who take their jobs and commit crimes in their neighborhoods. These desperate people give him their trust but all he is nothing more than a con man without any intent of doing more than gaining power for himself, These uneducated people want to believe that a rich tough guy who creates the illusion of being a self-made man will stand up for them. He is no better than the despicable frauds who peddle cures to the hopelessly ill. Trump's converts see him as their savior who can do no wrong.
4
Now even NYTimes is race baiting? Unbelievable. The media's behavior during this election has been nothing short of disgusting and depraved; they've shown themselves to be willing to say anything, as long as people keep clicking.
7
Seems obvious: it's the forgotten, often silent demographic to which no politician, national/state/or local, gives a damn, except for their votes. Moreover, the corporate entities care even less. The only surprise would be that the anger has been suppressed this long... Perversely, Trumpie, will probably drop them like a hot potato if he wins the war for POTUS but they hope not, once again. The fact remains... this demographic represents an untapped/under utilized human resource of immense value to this country and if we find a way to remedy this situation, regardless of the "cost", the entire nation benefits. Who will be the FDR for them?
1
In other words the demographic for his supporters is dumb white trailer tr@sh?
3
We will see. The support from Trump does no come from the NYT from the segment you seem to resent. So power to the lowly!
3
The Trump voters seem to be in that same group -- white, high school diploma or less, people who felt they had fallen down in U.S. society because there were no good-paying jobs for them anymore like their parents had had -- that the study by the two economists last year said were dying early of addiction to opiods, gunshot wounds, and suicide. The economists said the data surprised them -- the people weren't dying of heart disease and diabetes, but essentially were dying of self-inflicted diseases and one of them used the words "a broken heart."
Or, as Pat Buchanan put it, they are the peasants with pitchforks.
Trump has to be stopped for the good of the entire country.
Or, as Pat Buchanan put it, they are the peasants with pitchforks.
Trump has to be stopped for the good of the entire country.
3
I do not live in a trailer in the South; I live in a small apartment on Manhattan. I have a BA (and I graduated with a GPA of 3.875). I worked in technology for twenty years and I was good at it. I have traveled extensively in North America, North Africa, Europe, and the Middle East. I can speak five languages. And yes, I’m an “American,” because I don’t think people really have the patience to hear me list five European countries and two Native American tribes that make up my ancestral heritage. I am not a racist. I have friendships with people of color that go back more than forty years. I’m not talking about work acquaintances; I’m talking about people I socialize with, go out to dinner with, and visit in each other’s homes. (I notice that most of the white people who denounce others as “racist” don’t know ANY people of color other than workmates whom they only see on the job.) This past week I changed my party affiliation to Republican so I can vote for Trump on primary day. I am not an atypical Trump voter. I have friends who make more money than I do and have advanced degrees who are also voting for Trump. The only thing we’re “angry” about is Media’s insatiable attempts to demonize not only Mr. Trump, but anyone who supports him. You try to depict us as an angry mob. The only angry mob I’ve seen were the alleged “protesters” (hired goons is a more likely description) in Chicago.
7
Is this not the same demographic segment that are dying earlier than in the previous generation and have really high rates of opioid addiction? Maybe it's too late for them but what about their children?
The class dunces with chips on their shoulders have their candidate. Be shallow; be cool!
2
This article left me with rare discomfort in NYTimes’ analytical presentation, its conclusions uncomfortably close to established political dogma—really, mobile homes? The numbers will echo back; and therefore NYTimes cannot leave its readers questioning what the numbers actually do, don’t, and cannot say, by excluding its analytical methods. The subject is already dangerously divisive. Were data sources and variables selection appropriate? E.g., are demographics of 60’s Wallace supporters similar today? (2) Was the hypothesis tested against previous decades’ Census data? (3) Confounding? Overwhelmingly, US residents were born in the US. (4) Are the 10 variables linked to Trump support of statistical significance, and remain so in multivariate analysis, if done (and should have)? Did non-partisan experts validate the analysis? (5) MOST importantly, to whom do the article’s conclusions vis-à-vis Trump supporters apply? The general population, all eligible voters, likely voters, voters in Republican primaries only,…? Comparative candidates’ support population sizes and graphical distribution would be illustrative.
Readers need to know for future discussion and verification of commentary if and which interpretations of this article can be argued seriously or dismissed out of hand. To wit, an already posted comment, “…what we already know is true: Trump support consists largely of ignorant white people living in culturally and economically stagnant areas of the country”
Readers need to know for future discussion and verification of commentary if and which interpretations of this article can be argued seriously or dismissed out of hand. To wit, an already posted comment, “…what we already know is true: Trump support consists largely of ignorant white people living in culturally and economically stagnant areas of the country”
2
Listening to trump bloviate and spew out ignorance, hate and flat out lies to adoring screaming crowds with signs reading "build that wall" and/or "let's take our country back" what else would any reasonable person expect?
2
The New York Times is well known for it's liberal leaning.
To say that American voters are uneducated for one side of the political arena clearly shows this.
Hillary Clinton has been campaigning in Flint Michigan and Detroit to people who are under the poverty level in many cases.
These people are not educated at all. In fact the areas they live in have high gang activities, drug use, and a high rate of Welfare cases.
To say that Donald Trump is mostly supported by the white uneducated and that Hillary Clinton does not court a high rate of uneducated support only shows that the New York Times leans to the Left.
Please report both sides of the real story.
To say that American voters are uneducated for one side of the political arena clearly shows this.
Hillary Clinton has been campaigning in Flint Michigan and Detroit to people who are under the poverty level in many cases.
These people are not educated at all. In fact the areas they live in have high gang activities, drug use, and a high rate of Welfare cases.
To say that Donald Trump is mostly supported by the white uneducated and that Hillary Clinton does not court a high rate of uneducated support only shows that the New York Times leans to the Left.
Please report both sides of the real story.
3
"Nationally, 23 percent of the 25-to-54-year-old population was not working in March, up from 18 percent in 2000."
I interpret the chart link as reading these are the EMPLOYED figures ...not the "not working."
Please issue a bold clarification.
I interpret the chart link as reading these are the EMPLOYED figures ...not the "not working."
Please issue a bold clarification.
It's good for America. Why hide it? Trump obviously scares a lot of people, look at the wall to wall coverage of him here. So he has shaken the system, and maybe that will wake up a new breed of candidates from both parties that are different from the disgraceful current bunch of opportunists propped by special interests that are running right now.
Could we do any worse than Trump? Oh yes, Clinton.
Could we do any worse than Trump? Oh yes, Clinton.
3
Donald Trump is exhibiting xenophobia…he is pandering and enabling those of us who are fearful of change, to act in a manner a rational, CIVILIZED human would not. It is easy to arouse prejudice and exploit it among a (relatively) unthinking populace.
The emotion of prejudice is natural and helps organisms survive. Pre judging has, over millennia, served to avoid anything that could possibly be a threat to life…prejudice is hard wired.
Rationality can prevent our natural inclination (instinct-like drive) toward prejudice of things different, to evolve into bigotry, hate, racism, misogyny, xenophobia. Rationality “sees through” the anachronistic threats and allows us to accept change and differences that no longer pose a threat to life.
Tactic: a misguiding leader will dehumanize others, so violence can be perpetrated without fear of personal-guilt repercussions. Even acts of cowardice, for exampling sucker punching a person, might be encouraged.
Make “them” (Mexicans, Chinese, Muslims, African Americans, Capulets, Montagues…whomever) a threat to your unthinking audience; the subsurface natural, life-protecting, prejudice can explode to the surface and evolve into ugly, ugly hate and violence against non-threatening members of our own species. It has happened over and over and over in human history and it’s happening now. Think.
Speak up.
The emotion of prejudice is natural and helps organisms survive. Pre judging has, over millennia, served to avoid anything that could possibly be a threat to life…prejudice is hard wired.
Rationality can prevent our natural inclination (instinct-like drive) toward prejudice of things different, to evolve into bigotry, hate, racism, misogyny, xenophobia. Rationality “sees through” the anachronistic threats and allows us to accept change and differences that no longer pose a threat to life.
Tactic: a misguiding leader will dehumanize others, so violence can be perpetrated without fear of personal-guilt repercussions. Even acts of cowardice, for exampling sucker punching a person, might be encouraged.
Make “them” (Mexicans, Chinese, Muslims, African Americans, Capulets, Montagues…whomever) a threat to your unthinking audience; the subsurface natural, life-protecting, prejudice can explode to the surface and evolve into ugly, ugly hate and violence against non-threatening members of our own species. It has happened over and over and over in human history and it’s happening now. Think.
Speak up.
3
Comments about two Senators from differently populated states suggest a lack of passing American history in high school.
And open carry permits. Let's see how Donald likes them in his audience, or in his grand children's schools.
2
After going back and forth with Trump supporters on Facebook several times in the past few weeks, this doesn't surprise me. They appear to take whatever he says at face value (yeah! He's going to make America great!) Yet when confronted with facts, such as his abysmal tax plan that gives more money to the very rich, they get defensive or retreat into insults. I actually feel kind of bad for them. I understand their anger. They have a right to be angry. But if they can comment on Facebook, with or without a high school diploma, they can Google what Trump actually stands for. They choose not to. I won't feel bad for them when Trump sells them out for his own ego.
2
For what ever it's worth, I saw a little of Trump's rally in Ohio this morning on television. It appeared that not only was the audience white, it was overwhelmingly male.
1
Yes, we get it.
The left goes out of their way every single day to throw it in the faces of Trump supporters that they are uneducated racists, en masse.
Feeling superior now?
Have you ever considered that white people without high school diplomas living in mobile homes might have legitimate grievances? Grievances the government has failed to address?
I may not be a Trump fan, but the blatant disrespect and demeaning of this culture with broad brush discriminatory statements would normally bring on the ire of any self respecting blue tribe member.
Blue tribe members should go through these comments and substitute black or Latino for statements here and ask yourself if you are having a huge case of cognitive dissonance.
The left goes out of their way every single day to throw it in the faces of Trump supporters that they are uneducated racists, en masse.
Feeling superior now?
Have you ever considered that white people without high school diplomas living in mobile homes might have legitimate grievances? Grievances the government has failed to address?
I may not be a Trump fan, but the blatant disrespect and demeaning of this culture with broad brush discriminatory statements would normally bring on the ire of any self respecting blue tribe member.
Blue tribe members should go through these comments and substitute black or Latino for statements here and ask yourself if you are having a huge case of cognitive dissonance.
9
Gee maybe if Congress hadn't obstructed every jobs bill presented to them over the past 8 years, hadn't opposed an increase in the minimum wage, and hadnt refused to fund new investment in both infrastrucure and alernative energy, these folks would have some optimism about the future. Obama has been their biggest champion in Washington yet they hold him personally responsible for their misfortunes. How ironic and how sad.
14
I'm curious and fearful. What do the results show about who they support for Congress? The makeup of it seems to be an underreported issue right now while the Donald Trump spectacular show is going on.
3
The headline maintains that one significant factors predicting Trump's popularity is "white “Americans” with no high school diploma".
So, don't black Americans with no high school diploma are a significant factor predicting Hillary's popularity? She does carry the black vote overwhelmingly in the big cities.
So, don't black Americans with no high school diploma are a significant factor predicting Hillary's popularity? She does carry the black vote overwhelmingly in the big cities.
4
Simple math 23% of blacks 10% whites live below the poverty line and there's 3 times as many whites as blacks does that mean there are more impoverished whites? Yet poor whites are ignored. Why is that in a color blind world? Do poor whites count?
3
Another hit job on Donald Trump.
Given such in depth and detailed analysis, why couldn't the compilers have found out the source of support for Cruze, Rubio and Kasich, while they were at it?
Even though the article implies it, I’m not convinced that the demographics of those supporting the three remaining Republican Presidential contenders are any different from those supporting Trump.
The bile uttered about President Obama by Rubio and Cruze doesn’t lead me to believe that their supporters are somehow more refined or genteel than the Trump army.
Given such in depth and detailed analysis, why couldn't the compilers have found out the source of support for Cruze, Rubio and Kasich, while they were at it?
Even though the article implies it, I’m not convinced that the demographics of those supporting the three remaining Republican Presidential contenders are any different from those supporting Trump.
The bile uttered about President Obama by Rubio and Cruze doesn’t lead me to believe that their supporters are somehow more refined or genteel than the Trump army.
1
The smell of smug in these comments is strong.
4
You left out people like myself who are disgusted with the feckless leadership of Obama, & disillusioned with the Democratic Party, who is considering crossing over to vote for a Republican like Rubio or Kasich,but would still vote for Hillary, if Trump or Cruz becomes the Republican nominee. Trump like myself is a native New Yorker, always ready for an argument or a fist fight.The difference between us, other than wealth, is ,I know my New York temperament has not prepared me to run this Nation, Trump seems to have lost touch with reality.
2
The contempt shown toward Trump's supporters by some of my fellow commenters here makes me want to cry.
I may not like Trump but these are our countrymen and they are hurting.
I may not like Trump but these are our countrymen and they are hurting.
6
Remember the 2012 Republican presidential debate when Rick Santorum lambasted President Obama? "Obama wants everyone to go to college. What a snob!"
The GOP courts these voters - not just Trump, all of the GOP. They regularly oppose making college affordable, they push for backward educational standards in the most corrupt, impoverished states in the country. The GOP has for years tried to tie itself to the least educated members of the populace - and then work to keep them uneducated.
The point of all this is the GOP desperately needs the least educated they can manipulate into voting against their own economic interests. Buttering them up by playing to their social concerns about 'oppression of Christians' 'forced to bake wedding cakes for gay couples,' 'gun rights' and racist disapproval of Beyonce's dancing (Mike Huckabee publicly compared her to a prostitute) - the GOP plays to those who will be swayed by these 'issues' instead of wondering where their jobs went or if they were economically better off when there were unions.
The GOP knows what it's doing. Trump just stole their playbook.
The GOP courts these voters - not just Trump, all of the GOP. They regularly oppose making college affordable, they push for backward educational standards in the most corrupt, impoverished states in the country. The GOP has for years tried to tie itself to the least educated members of the populace - and then work to keep them uneducated.
The point of all this is the GOP desperately needs the least educated they can manipulate into voting against their own economic interests. Buttering them up by playing to their social concerns about 'oppression of Christians' 'forced to bake wedding cakes for gay couples,' 'gun rights' and racist disapproval of Beyonce's dancing (Mike Huckabee publicly compared her to a prostitute) - the GOP plays to those who will be swayed by these 'issues' instead of wondering where their jobs went or if they were economically better off when there were unions.
The GOP knows what it's doing. Trump just stole their playbook.
2
As much as we want to denigrate Trump supporters, I think we'd better take a step back and realize they are not completely responsible for their own ignorance and lack of critical thinking skills. They have been carefully insulated from education, and assiduously innoculated with hatred, fear, and despair by people who want their votes. You wouldn't get mad at someone who contracted cancer from breathing coal smokestack fumes, would you?
4
Sad. I grew up with these people in industrial Pa. They know something's wrong and they can't figure out just who to blame for all the falling living standards they see around them. They never blame their fellow upper middle class and wealthy whites who shipped their living standards to low cost countries. I'm always amazed when talking to them how they think the Chinese came and took the jobs or the Mexicans are coming here and doing the same. If they just realized their supposed own kind are doing this to them it would most likely dumbfounded them. The blind ignorance is incredible. Then along comes Trump and he knows how to push their buttons. Just sad.
24
These "people" as some of you elitists describe Trump followers, at one time voted the Democratic Party. They have been abandoned for some time. Whether he can deliver on his promises is doubtful, but at least he has offered "these people" some hope. Trump's message resonates for those who lost their retirement security, and good paying jobs. Can you blame them for that?
8
These are the people the Democrats left behind when they adopted differentiated strategies to lift up demographic segments starting with LBJ's Great Society.
You have to lift all the boats to achieve social democracy, not just some of the boats.
You have to lift all the boats to achieve social democracy, not just some of the boats.
4
This seems like a good guide for where Bernie Sanders should campaign. These poor people could use a good dose of the Bern...
4
He reminds me of George Wallace. But I don't remember Wallace inciting riots or threatening to punch someone in the face. I am sure the the vast majority of Wallace supporters who are still alive have joined the Trump bandwagon.
BTW, I am a Wharton Business School grad and I can say that nothing that comes out of Trump's mouth was taught at that school, including his simplistic and foolish views on economics.
The Republican elite is appalled but they brought this upon themselves.
BTW, I am a Wharton Business School grad and I can say that nothing that comes out of Trump's mouth was taught at that school, including his simplistic and foolish views on economics.
The Republican elite is appalled but they brought this upon themselves.
11
You want to know who will vote for Trump? You don't need to engage in pseudo=scientific gyrations to understand: working and middle class people who have been abandoned by the establishment, and who would never vote for a Democrat.
On this last qualifier, there may be a variety of reasons: abortion, guns, religion, racism, or a combination of these, but they believe the Democratic Party doesn't share their "values". Most of these people would've been the Blue Dog Democrats prior to breaking away in the late Sixties and early Seventies, and have called the Republican Party home. Some are Independents, but would almost never vote for a Dem. None of these people would EVER vote for Hillary. Some might vote for Bernie, especially if Trump somehow isn't the nominee. This is why Sanders is actually the stronger candidate come November.
On this last qualifier, there may be a variety of reasons: abortion, guns, religion, racism, or a combination of these, but they believe the Democratic Party doesn't share their "values". Most of these people would've been the Blue Dog Democrats prior to breaking away in the late Sixties and early Seventies, and have called the Republican Party home. Some are Independents, but would almost never vote for a Dem. None of these people would EVER vote for Hillary. Some might vote for Bernie, especially if Trump somehow isn't the nominee. This is why Sanders is actually the stronger candidate come November.
6
Ironically these are just the people whom have always been economically excluded from Trump condominiums!
8
The fact that Trump is pandering to and exploiting this economically/educationally challenged demographic (and apparently aware of what he's doing considering his focus on "the wall" and bringing jobs back home) plus his making promises to improve their lives that he can't keep is highly disturbing.
12
Fine article. To be honest I am a fan of data driven corrective realism. Let me be clear about this, I am neither left nor right politically. Follow the money, follow the data. All that gets you is a map and a you are here moment. Anybody who likes this article should lap up every NYT columns by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz and all the writers at fivethirtyeight and the women and men writers at VOX and Charles Blow when he is data driven. These people are probably canaries in our coal mines and you should read what happened to the canaries. Will this clear eyed correct-the-dependence-on-antidotes ever drive policy? No. Bad times ahead. Still, observation plus good writing...I can only say it's good to be alive to read these people (and the comments). I don't know if I will read these people from hospice but I hope so. Out of characters. Hope to post a couple of antidotes this American stuff inspired. Best of luck everyone, it is going to get much worse.
5
Watch out mainstream Republicans and Democrats, this is the angry white male revolution.
4
Here's a map of white, no high school diploma: http://maps.communitycommons.org/viewer/?action=open_map&id=4185&...
1
Mary Shelley was prescient regarding the Trump/GOP relationship when she wrote how Frankenstien's monster proclaimed, "You are my creator, but I am your master!" The monster now being Trump, created by the Republican Party. We are truly living in interesting times.
7
You missed the most important correlation: Media and this candidate I've taken to calling He Who Shall Not be Named. Right, left, center, all media is giving far too much attention to a loudmouth demanding it. It's hard to ignore him when he brings in readers, isn't it?
8
After reading many comments I agree with, there are two points that seem overlooked: the rural areas of this country have been voting republican against their own interests and now they are disappointed that they live in poverty. Secondly the obstructionist republican congress has blocked almost all attempts for our government to help them. And now they're mad? Really?
46
I have a blue-collar maintenance technician that works for me. He is friendly, personable, works hard etc. Somehow politics came up in the office and he said ," yeah, the election is Americans vs. Democrats." He smiled when he made the statement, but he was 100% serious. Once upon a time, this gentleman would have probably leaned Democrat, but times have changed - we have a mixed race President with a foreign sounding name and social media has diminished the need for critical thinking skills.
36
I'm visiting Orange County CA. I've seen half a dozen Teslas every time I drive on the freeway. Luxury cars everywhere and million dollar homes line the cliffs above the beaches. Bright blue Trump signs the only thing that breaks up the lush manicured lawns and The shine from the chrome bumpers on expensive cars. Not everyone supporting him is poor.
I talked to an aging hippie running a small coffee shop. She said once she became a small business owner she became republican. Now she loves Trump because she said he won't raise minimum wage.
This article is not, as if often the case, the whole story.
I talked to an aging hippie running a small coffee shop. She said once she became a small business owner she became republican. Now she loves Trump because she said he won't raise minimum wage.
This article is not, as if often the case, the whole story.
22
As someone who grew up in southern Appalachia, and got out at soon as possible, the correlations are all too familiar. The region basically survived off of timber and coal industries (these ironically also polluted the area with all sorts of toxicity) up until recent decades. What little education is available, is shoddy at best… not much farmable land (no more Government subsidies either)… isolation from any real diversity… all lead to an angry existence with an intense urge to find blame elsewhere…. Unfortunately, this anger manifests in the form of racism, blatant and masked…. and is dangerous. All of these things are complicated beyond any kind of easy solutions, but improved education and interaction with other peoples of different backgrounds is essential.
One thing is for sure, Trump is not the one who is going to bring those fundamental building blocks to the people of Appalachia.
One thing is for sure, Trump is not the one who is going to bring those fundamental building blocks to the people of Appalachia.
29
The bad news is: the counties you have identified desperately need massive government and taxpayer help they will not get from either party (with the Republicans far more at fault). And as they don't get it, things will only get worse for them, and for the country.
The only good news -- and it is pitifully small "good news" in comparison to the deep social pathologies it describes and portends -- is that this analysis makes Trump's path to victory in November seem a little less likely.
The only good news -- and it is pitifully small "good news" in comparison to the deep social pathologies it describes and portends -- is that this analysis makes Trump's path to victory in November seem a little less likely.
9
My sense is that the "anger" these people feel has been cultivated by the right-wing media for years and is finally now manifest as the political tool they desired. It's just one big farce.
25
In places like Revere, MA there are many immigrant residents and residents who are one generation removed from immigrants, which doesn't really fit the self-described American ancestry narrative you might find elsewhere. While it might seem counterintuitive, there is a lot of support for Trump within these neighborhoods in New England. The reason? Resentment among people who immigrated legally (or whose parents did) toward those who are undocumented.
13
I went to James Madison High School in Brooklyn, NY. where there is a quote above the entryway attributed to our fourth president: "Education is the true foundation of civil liberty." This election makes clear the wisdom of Madison's observation.
17
If you analyze politics from the perspective of an urban liberal, you won*t understand much about *real Americans.*
I grew up in a newly-built post-war development in Queens NY where most of our neighbors were people like us--Jews of Eastern European background. The Sephardic family on our floor were the *outsiders.* As a child I thought grandparents were people who spoke with accents and I was astonished to have an elementary school classmate whose grandparents were born in America. The culture I grew up in was strongly-flavored by the speech and customs of a far-away place. People who grew up like I did often think of themselves as Americans with a modifier attached.
But many, many people in this country are, indeed, *American.* Their ancestors came here many generations ago, and forged a new culture--a uniquely *American* one. They don't call themselves or think of themselves as *English-American* or *Scots-Irish American.* People who DO call themselves Irish-American tend to be no more than a great-great-grandparent away from Ireland, and often know who and where their old-country cousins are.
The Americans who don't sort themselves into ethnic groupings are, for some reason, baffling to liberals. But they do have an ethnicity. It*s American.
I grew up in a newly-built post-war development in Queens NY where most of our neighbors were people like us--Jews of Eastern European background. The Sephardic family on our floor were the *outsiders.* As a child I thought grandparents were people who spoke with accents and I was astonished to have an elementary school classmate whose grandparents were born in America. The culture I grew up in was strongly-flavored by the speech and customs of a far-away place. People who grew up like I did often think of themselves as Americans with a modifier attached.
But many, many people in this country are, indeed, *American.* Their ancestors came here many generations ago, and forged a new culture--a uniquely *American* one. They don't call themselves or think of themselves as *English-American* or *Scots-Irish American.* People who DO call themselves Irish-American tend to be no more than a great-great-grandparent away from Ireland, and often know who and where their old-country cousins are.
The Americans who don't sort themselves into ethnic groupings are, for some reason, baffling to liberals. But they do have an ethnicity. It*s American.
21
I think many of Trump's followers realize, perhaps subconsciously, they're on the losing side of history and that they follow someone both dangerous and deceptive: But I don't think they care. "Misery loves company" suits them just fine, and if they can't have the American dream, they don't want anyone else to have it either. This kind of 'scorched earth' energy reminds me far too much of 1930's Germany, and I sadly wonder whether once again a whole generation must be sacrificed before peace is restored.
14
Thanks for an objective and analytical article.
6
How can you write this piece without some mention of the phenomena of The Apprentice, legalized gambling, and Wreslemania? Trump's familiar and managed image in this culture has gotten him votes. Similarly, the drumbeat attacks on Hillary by Levin-Hannity-Limbaugh et al. have cost her votes. Yes, the images are distorted, but they are what these people know.
Adult education, folks. That's what is needed.
Adult education, folks. That's what is needed.
13
Which presidential candidate is a person with a sadistic personality demonstrating a pervasive pattern of cruel, demeaning, and aggressive behavior?
Which presidential candidate gains satisfaction from intimidating, coercing, hurting, and humiliating others?
Which presidential candidate is frightening and cruel, and appears to relish the acts of menacing others, and forcing others to cower and submit, while gaining satisfaction from bullying others?
Do you want this kind of person to be a role model for your children and grandchildren?
Do you want the President of the United States to behave in these ways?
By the way, people who behaved this way and who behave this way were and are slave drivers and were and are those who chased down and chase down runaway enslaved people. The Nazis and other types of fascists
used slave labor.
Save our democracy.
Which presidential candidate gains satisfaction from intimidating, coercing, hurting, and humiliating others?
Which presidential candidate is frightening and cruel, and appears to relish the acts of menacing others, and forcing others to cower and submit, while gaining satisfaction from bullying others?
Do you want this kind of person to be a role model for your children and grandchildren?
Do you want the President of the United States to behave in these ways?
By the way, people who behaved this way and who behave this way were and are slave drivers and were and are those who chased down and chase down runaway enslaved people. The Nazis and other types of fascists
used slave labor.
Save our democracy.
11
There's something in here I find chilling. I'm told the best predictor of the level of violence in a society is the percentage of unemployed young males. Syria and Palestine provide two striking examples. What does a 23% not working rate among 25 - 54 year olds bode?
16
Basically, Trump's support is strongest among people who are getting the short end of the economic stick, which is why his anti-Wall Street, anti-free trade positions are gaining a lot of traction.
12
One might think that his most fervent supporters would be graduates of Trump University
6
Trump and Sanders are two sides of the same coin. Trump appeals to emotion, Sanders to reason. Let us pray that reason wins out.
13
I tend to think their description of their ancestry as "American" is less about wearing their patriotism on their sleeve than 1. little or no recent immigration in their family, and 2. ignorance. These are the people who couldn't locate England or Scotland or Germany on a map, and have no clear idea of those places, even when it is their own ancestry. I grew up with people like that in my hometown in the upper midwest. I think it is hard for a lot of New York Times readers to get their head wrapped around that level of isolation, confusion, and total lack of curiosity about themselves or the world.
10
Would the NYT publish an article that stated that Hillary's supporters represented poorly educated "black" Americans?
19
Great statistical work. This is epidemiology for the current Republican pandemic.
6
A lot of bi-coastal whites who are sneering at Trump supporters are themselves only a generation removed from “flyover” country as they now call it and take great pains to lose their country habits - masking their regional accents, stop going to church, dressing differently and such. Maybe such people see what they might have been, had it not been for good luck, in their forgotten cousins, whom they now ridicule, back home. I live in New York and am originally from a small town in Kentucky, but you see this kind of thing in all cultures, such as the filmmaker in “Cinema Paradiso” or even Coco Chanel, who changed her name, lied about her rural past and paid her bumpkin relatives to stay out of Paris.
7
Before NYT readers turn up their noses at the poorly educated and just plain poor who are eager to scapegoat immigrants and minorities, consider the appeal of Bernie Sanders. His scapegoat is different (Wall Sreet) but the willingness to exploit anger and offer simple answers to a credulous group is just another form of Trumpism. And I would bet that Bernie's voters don't have the excuse of being poorly educated.
12
Those who make fun of Trump for his anti-immigration views are misreading public sentiment on that issue. Most Americans don't want to "build a wall," but they nevertheless support tougher enforcement of our immigration laws.
13
Don't you feel he's embarrassed by the attention and adulation of a demographic that believes everyone else did them wrong? We all know he's using them and would never associate with them or give them a dime.
If they falter in their obedience to him, he'll mention there's a non-white (surely, amore colorful, perverse language will come from his lips) in their non-black, White House.
If they falter in their obedience to him, he'll mention there's a non-white (surely, amore colorful, perverse language will come from his lips) in their non-black, White House.
5
While the appeal of Trump in some counties here appears to co-vary with the density of disadvantaged white persons in general, I am intrigued here by the fairly large number of evangelicals in the mix and the apparent similar number of persons who do not have a WASP background. Are these two separate groups or is there significant overlap? If the latter, this might indicate that these evangelicals are the former Roman Catholics ethnics who had been considered "Reagan Democrats" and/or their descendants. If so, these persons developed their angry outlook years ago and have been considered a staunch part of the Republican base for years. That they might be angrier and more disadvantaged now is likely, as well as very unfortunate given their allegiance to the GOP and how well that worked out.
5
This mess will take generations to cure. As long as you have people who vote, not because they have thought out the issues and made a choice, but because ''that is the way my daddy did, and that is good enough for me and the way I will too.'' introspection is the least of it.
7
Trump is just the latest carpetbagger to get rich off the folks who are wasting time waiting for The South to Rise Again. Let them eat his clothes made in China. Seriously, it is time to put down the GOP crack pipe and quit trying to get an identity from following people around who tell you what you want to hear in exchange for your vote.
Rush Limbaugh et al has made the American male a permanent victim, telling them to blame everyone else, and to think of themselves as weak and politically impotent people. My Texas dad's generation was "Can-Do" who would have been horrified at today's GOP and Trump too. Time to change the loser paradigm by educating yourself.
Rush Limbaugh et al has made the American male a permanent victim, telling them to blame everyone else, and to think of themselves as weak and politically impotent people. My Texas dad's generation was "Can-Do" who would have been horrified at today's GOP and Trump too. Time to change the loser paradigm by educating yourself.
7
I keep wondering which "great" Mr. Trump would like to make America "again." I can only conclude that it was sometime before 1620.
6
I do not think trashing Trump supporters, is helpful. I know plenty of people with college degrees, master's degrees, supporting him. I am a Bertie supporter, but do understand their anger. The last 8 years have been very difficult, for so many. I think the NYTs, and the rest of the main stream media, need to investigate, and interview, main street America, without a bias, without an agenda.
15
Trump's doing what he always does: find a distressed property; promise the broken-hearted people still hanging on to it that he'll restore it to glory; loot it six ways to Sunday and leave it a shell. His backers in the GOP hierarchy have no choice to go along with it because if they reveal Trump's swindle they reveal the one they've been running themselves.
10
Unless you list *all* of the jobs you included in "old economy", you're not being honest. Here's a hint: what you do think the connection is between people who work in, say, construction, and people who oppose illegal immigration?
8
When I moved into my neighborhood, the tree service owners and workers were Americans, ditto the lawn care workers, the stone wall workers. Now 90% of the workers are undocumented workers. Factories are going overseas for cheap labor. CEO's are making 400 times their average workers. Manufacturing base is gone. This idea that people should get educated for new info world misses 2 issues:
1) Vast number of young college educated unable to get meaningful jobs, and
2)Many students just can't manage to handle school enough to go to college. (Many of my young relatives are in this group).
You don't have to be racist to be angry, and to vote for Trump.
1) Vast number of young college educated unable to get meaningful jobs, and
2)Many students just can't manage to handle school enough to go to college. (Many of my young relatives are in this group).
You don't have to be racist to be angry, and to vote for Trump.
17
This article was informative but did not go far enough -- there is a global corollary between unemployment for working-age males and hate politics. People want jobs. They want a sense of pride at the end of the day -- and a paycheck. This (and the underlying racism always rife in the "they've taken our jobs away" dog whistle) is the visceral message that resonates with Trump supporters.
7
Trump himself said something like "I love uneducated people."
7
The eternal sequence:
Where are you from? Brooklyn
Obviously unsatisfactory.
Where was your father from? Bronx
Trying again.
And you mother?Brooklyn
Usually it ends there.
They could see that I am a white male so that question never was asked. Self identified AMERICAN am I.
English speaking and that is the language of our country and no other, I can almost muddle through with French.
Yes I am a college graduate -- and more.
Finally, I have many problems with political correctness but believe me, a Trump fan I am not.
Where are you from? Brooklyn
Obviously unsatisfactory.
Where was your father from? Bronx
Trying again.
And you mother?Brooklyn
Usually it ends there.
They could see that I am a white male so that question never was asked. Self identified AMERICAN am I.
English speaking and that is the language of our country and no other, I can almost muddle through with French.
Yes I am a college graduate -- and more.
Finally, I have many problems with political correctness but believe me, a Trump fan I am not.
2
Do we also get to exclude (or discount) those supporters of Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton who have no high school diploma?
What is the NY Times saying about the value of a person? Would the NYT highlight the supporters of "Black Lives Matter" who have no high school diploma, too?
This is the kind of elitism that only divides the country further. If you want to attack Mr. Trump's politics, that is more credible than belittling his supporters.
What is the NY Times saying about the value of a person? Would the NYT highlight the supporters of "Black Lives Matter" who have no high school diploma, too?
This is the kind of elitism that only divides the country further. If you want to attack Mr. Trump's politics, that is more credible than belittling his supporters.
9
"the places where support for Mr. Trump runs the strongest, the proportion of the white population that didn’t finish high school is relatively high"
And many of these folks are angry and racist. You can see their anger and hatred on the videos that show how they respond to protesters. They're a very scary bunch, and Trump has egged them on for quite awhile. That behavior alone should disqualify him from the race for the White House. Trump is disgusting.
And many of these folks are angry and racist. You can see their anger and hatred on the videos that show how they respond to protesters. They're a very scary bunch, and Trump has egged them on for quite awhile. That behavior alone should disqualify him from the race for the White House. Trump is disgusting.
2
FDR was the last person who really helped these folks out. Lots of government help- jobs, school, TVA and so on. Since then both parties has kept away from this approach. After Roosevelt, the Cold War developed and money for social causes dried up. The right wing , pro military, pro intervention crowd has ruined our country. Sanders is on the right track, Clinton and Trump not.
5
Between the Hitler salutes, the assault on protesters and the comic opera hair do, the only things missing are the brown shirts, arm bands and the torchlight parades. The it will be just what he wants - "back in the old days."
3
This denigration of people who think of themselves as just American elitist tripe. I don't wear a flag patch on my clothes, but when asked, i reply that I am simply an American. It was Teddy Roosevelt, the great progressive, who stated that this country has no place for hyphenated Americans. If you are a citizen whose family goes back two hundred years or a newly minted one who was sworn in two minutes ago; you are just a plain American.
9
It would be nice if we didn't have to demean and belittle groups of people whose lives we know little of, and yet about whom we generalize freely. There are lots of reasons for poverty/ low educational attainment/ despair -- medical, emotional, cultural, structural. Desperate people seek solace where they can find it, and they seek a champion. They don't fact check (true of voters across the spectrum this campaign season -- the air is pretty redolent of pie in the sky). Not all of these people are "losers". But I bet a lot of them are unlucky.
10
What I don't understand is after Trump said in an early GOP debate "raising the minimum wage would be disasterous" this category of white, under-employed, low-education voters somehow feels he's got their back. Fat chance!? They're simply being conned with Trumps bellicose rhetoric.
5
People should be required to pass a basic test of civics and history before being allowed to vote.
4
Well here's the Republicans answer to their dilemma. Change the election laws to require a diploma in order to vote. For them it should be easy and merely nothing more than the extending previous barriers they've put in place, like ID requirements and poll access in other places where they wish to suppress votes.
4
The left makes common cause against Trump with the Republican donor class a.k.a. the oligarchs while the neocons flee from the GOP to their fellow warmonger Hillary. Crazy stuff.
3
A good reason then to vote for Bernie and free college tuition for all?
3
This is terrific analysis. Can you make data available for this? Any thoughts of doing factor analysis? Feels like there may be some root causes embedded in the correlation of the different variables with each other.
2
So, what is new? Persons without work and without education who also see the world in 'win or lose' perspective seek a simple answer to their problem. Sadly, there are no simple answers nor remedies. Worse still, Trump offers no solutions or even rational suggestions to help.
60
Our 'Election 2016' has all the markings of 1920s Italy's neo Fascism versus Socialists. I believe Sanders socialist pie-in- the sky angry and resentful rhetoric, embraced by socialist from birth youths, will spark serious nationwide confrontations against Trump's corresponding nationalist angry resentful followers.
The media (especially cable) and President Obama could have lessen some angst surrounding candidates rhetoric through offering a modicum of civics. That would have been affirming of Capitalism as America's tool and reminding all, that candidates promises are limited by Constitutional authority for any POTUS - but both entities remain mute.
The media (especially cable) and President Obama could have lessen some angst surrounding candidates rhetoric through offering a modicum of civics. That would have been affirming of Capitalism as America's tool and reminding all, that candidates promises are limited by Constitutional authority for any POTUS - but both entities remain mute.
9
These arrogant boobs whom wrote this article are the reason I dropped the Times a decade ago. I am the antithesis of whom these callous free, Starbucks machioto lovers, whom wrote this piece says is Trumps core voting class. I am degreed and in the Friedman school of economics, not the Obamunistic Keynesian school they live in. Obama, his language and his actions have been 100 times more hurtful and devicive to the USA than anything Trump has inferred. The authors of this slanted piece are obviously smeared in their 'white guilt' and have allowed themselves to be covered in it which has warped his sense of reality. It is people like them that has created the environment in the USA of a 'neutered' country of which the sharks of the planet are now circling.
30
Are there any specific facts that you disagree with in the article? Or even opinions? The article doesn't seem to comment on Trump's suitability for the Presidency at all, merely on voter demographics.
"Arrogant" just about sums this up.
This is a fun but not very meaningful article. Your test of correlation strength is useless without a test of significance. And your highest strength of 0.61 is way below what is needed to "examine what factors predict a high level of Trump support relative to the total number of registered voters." 0.61 has an insignificant r-squared of 36%
I enjoyed the mobile home predictor. You might also consider testing the correlation of Trumpism with hurricane incidence.
Additional variables for follow-on research are: wearing wife-beater t-shirts, ownership of pick-ups with American flag decals, obesity, burping, loud mufflers, tattoos, Budweiser drinkers, TV watchers, and the name "Bubba."
I enjoyed the mobile home predictor. You might also consider testing the correlation of Trumpism with hurricane incidence.
Additional variables for follow-on research are: wearing wife-beater t-shirts, ownership of pick-ups with American flag decals, obesity, burping, loud mufflers, tattoos, Budweiser drinkers, TV watchers, and the name "Bubba."
32
You misunderstand the relationship between r, the correlation coefficient, R-squared, the coefficient of determination. and, the statistical significance of the underlying relationship. You do so because you are confusing effect size -- measured with r -- with the idea of statistical significance, which is about the likelihood that a relationship could be merely random.
Yes, the statistical significance of these relationships probably should be reported. But given the size of the dataset being used, the significance of the relationship--even if small--will exceed 95% confidence.
Yes, the statistical significance of these relationships probably should be reported. But given the size of the dataset being used, the significance of the relationship--even if small--will exceed 95% confidence.
38
To get elected, a candidate must find a constituency to vote for him or her.
Trump has found neglected voters who, until him, have had no one to vocalize their prejudices and inner-most fears. There is simply no other Presidential candidate who will "play" to this group for fear of alienating one or more elite bodies of voters. Of course, when and if he takes office, Trump, like every other elected leader, will do what he believes is best for the country and he will not be an agent of any electorate.
Rey Olsen
Trump has found neglected voters who, until him, have had no one to vocalize their prejudices and inner-most fears. There is simply no other Presidential candidate who will "play" to this group for fear of alienating one or more elite bodies of voters. Of course, when and if he takes office, Trump, like every other elected leader, will do what he believes is best for the country and he will not be an agent of any electorate.
Rey Olsen
7
He would accomplish nothing, because the Republican- held Congress has already said there will be no wall with Mexico and refused to even vote on a ban on Muslims entering the country. And his "health care plan" is DOA, he shows a complete ignorance of state laws. In foreign affairs he has already earned the scorn of Europe and Israel. He would be in way over his head and his supporters would feel betrayed.
Trump is finding a way to circumvent established paths to modern power leading the U.S. into a never before seen degenerative phase of democracy. Every empire has it's decline and what we are witnessing is the post-peak downward trajectory of the Pax-Americana. Or maybe this is the nascency of the Trumpist Revolution. Either way, we can no longer believe that democracy is immortal.
21
And those with long memories, who are black like me and hate that Obama bowed to the king of Saudi Arabia.
We are not witnessing the fall of America, just the fall of the Republican Party. They are hardly the same.
The expectation among Trump's "White, no high school diploma" supporters that he will restore good-paying jobs to their demographic is a fantasy. As Irwin and Katz note, that ship started to pull away from the dock during WWII due to factors that Trump's platform doesn't address. Providing full employment in family-supporting jobs will require considerably more brainpower than Donald's "take two aspirins" prescription.
46
have any of the individuals commenting ever met or talked to the uneducated trailer dwellers referred to in this article. I think not. This poor pitiful underclass that we must now fix as true liberals has been making poor decisions for decades. Serial children withe serial mothers and resulting large child support payments. Job hopping and laying around the house all winter when laid off while waiting for the Wife to get home from work and make dinner. Gun purchases for thousands of dollars and 45,000 dollar trucks on an annual income of 35,000. Cashing in 401ks. To buy the latest 4 Wheeler. Oh and don't forget the biannual trips to Disney world or to hunt out west on credit cards. I sprang from uneducated people of another generation and the men by and large did not engage in self destructive behavior like this. sorry you make your bed and don't expect me to cry about it.
37
Do you not wonder what changed? Why the uneducated more and more make poor decisions and lack motivation? When all the exits from poverty seem blocked, what do you do? It takes more grit than likely even your parents had these days to escape. That's why people are angry. You should not need to be a superhero to escape poverty. If you work hard and play by the rules, it should be enough. But it's not anymore.
This comment is a nasty screed. I can't believe the Times published it.
Enormous advances in technology have made the trans-oceanic distances disappear. Foreign-based administrative jobs are now transparent, meaning that "back-room" corporate jobs such as payroll, accounting and corporate management can be off-shored. Jobs in this category also include computer software development and computer system help-line support. The concept of the "virtual corporation", which maintains low levels of "project managers" can scale up or down, and only a small "corporate core" needs to be physically in the USA.
22
Yeah, they tried that with engineering twenty years ago and got a product that was on par with worst call centers.
Try as they might, Liberal publications continue to be bewildered by Trump's political success.
Despite the rhetoric, hopefully we've all realized by now that Trump is gaining huge support from the non educated to highly educated, minorities and women. He even won the postgraduate vote in Mass. - the epicenter of higher learning. GOP turnout is huge with some states beating historical voting records.
I myself am a Trump supporter. I also have a Master's degree from an Ivy League school, own a business, work in the media and am a woman. So what does that say? I hardly fit the media's regurgitated (prejudiced) narrative of the downtrodden old white guy living in a trailer park in the deep south.
Furthermore, based on what happened at the Trump rally in Chicago, the majority of agitators were young, unemployed university students who align with the regressive left. Is this an example for Liberals? Do they represent them all? I certainly hope not. It's important for those baffled by Trump's ascent to stop judging and start listening.
There is undoubtedly a vast disconnect between theory based & historical journalism (which pundits rely on) vs. the actual voters and their concerns. Many important issues have been ignored or written off. Perhaps if these journalists actually spoke to voters, listened to their stories, understood their hardships/worries and reported on it objectively, Trump's surge wouldn't be such a surprise.
Despite the rhetoric, hopefully we've all realized by now that Trump is gaining huge support from the non educated to highly educated, minorities and women. He even won the postgraduate vote in Mass. - the epicenter of higher learning. GOP turnout is huge with some states beating historical voting records.
I myself am a Trump supporter. I also have a Master's degree from an Ivy League school, own a business, work in the media and am a woman. So what does that say? I hardly fit the media's regurgitated (prejudiced) narrative of the downtrodden old white guy living in a trailer park in the deep south.
Furthermore, based on what happened at the Trump rally in Chicago, the majority of agitators were young, unemployed university students who align with the regressive left. Is this an example for Liberals? Do they represent them all? I certainly hope not. It's important for those baffled by Trump's ascent to stop judging and start listening.
There is undoubtedly a vast disconnect between theory based & historical journalism (which pundits rely on) vs. the actual voters and their concerns. Many important issues have been ignored or written off. Perhaps if these journalists actually spoke to voters, listened to their stories, understood their hardships/worries and reported on it objectively, Trump's surge wouldn't be such a surprise.
38
"Trump is gaining huge support from the non educated to highly educated, minorities and women. " This is just not true factually according to the CNN exit polls from primaries and caucuses this year. Look for yourself at the CNN website.
Across all these exit polls, on average Trump's voting support was 45% among high school or less, 40% some college, but 33% among college graduates, and 19% among the post-graduates. In no election did Trump get the vote of the majority of college graduates or postgraduates. The education gap is consistent and steady. The gender gap is equally consistent.
Across all these exit polls, on average Trump's voting support was 45% among high school or less, 40% some college, but 33% among college graduates, and 19% among the post-graduates. In no election did Trump get the vote of the majority of college graduates or postgraduates. The education gap is consistent and steady. The gender gap is equally consistent.
42
Right on, Sister! I share an advanced degree as well & worked continuously from 1971 (to pay for 4yrs graduate school) & as a business owner for many years until retirement, & have never lived in a trailer park or owned assault weapons.
The George Wallace (1968) geographical distribution narrative was my favorite correlation in the article. That was 50 years ago, as if it has any meaning whatsoever today. My great grandfather on my grandmothers side immediately comes to mind. A prosperous wagon yard owner in the rapidly growing SW corner of Oklahoma near the turn of the century (1899), the area never recovered from the great depression. How quaint to attempt to draw meaningful correlations between the populace then & of the motor car industry 50 yrs later. Things change, people adapt, the premise would be laughed right off the podium.
The author treads dangerously close to the causation/correlation dilemma; and as you say, failing to report or comprehend the appeal of TrumpSanity objectively.
The George Wallace (1968) geographical distribution narrative was my favorite correlation in the article. That was 50 years ago, as if it has any meaning whatsoever today. My great grandfather on my grandmothers side immediately comes to mind. A prosperous wagon yard owner in the rapidly growing SW corner of Oklahoma near the turn of the century (1899), the area never recovered from the great depression. How quaint to attempt to draw meaningful correlations between the populace then & of the motor car industry 50 yrs later. Things change, people adapt, the premise would be laughed right off the podium.
The author treads dangerously close to the causation/correlation dilemma; and as you say, failing to report or comprehend the appeal of TrumpSanity objectively.
10
Why don't you tell us exactly what your concerns are, because I am so tired of hearing Trump supporters aren't being listened to. Truth is, we hear nothing but the concerns of the "silent majority" all the time and how they want to destroy political correctness, decency to me, to say it like it is. But what is it? Do you want 11 million Latinos deported before your very eyes? Muslim families targeted because they're Muslim? If that's so, say it, because I am so sick of the meme that Trump supporters are misunderstood people who aren't being listened to. Is that the case with that nice lady who made the Hitler salute last night at the Trump rally in Chicago? As for you and your achievements, why are you a Trump supporter?
I was pretty sure I could predict what the breakdown was before I even read the article. Until we as a country stop treating intelligence as a disease and take steps to improve education across the board, this is what the fall-out will be. It was only a matter of time before someone figured out they could get to the White House by courting the angry white people vote.
52
I think at least half of the American political class, the republican half, wants Americans to be ignorant. The ignorant are easily duped and manipulated. The GOP establishment clearly knows that, but they never expected someone like Trump to beat them at their own game. That explains why the GOP is generally unwilling to adequately fund public education and is content to punish the non-rich who seek higher education by burying them in debt.
66
Yep, as predictable as uneducated angry blacks voting for Clinton.
How about angry voters instead of angry white voters who have lost faith in both the Republican and Democratic professional class. Hillary Clinton faces the same backlash of angry voters as demonstrated by the success of Sanders.
More than anything else, it's sad that any percentage of voting Americans support Trump. This particular demographic of under-educated and unemployed are exactly the folks he cares about the least.
44
True. Just a few days ago, a on – the – record quote by Donald Trump a few years back surfaced in which he wondered why politicians brag about being from poor families since staying poor is a sign you're a "moron."
I have seen the explanation for Trump's uncanny ability to tap into the anger working class whites feel where their life long expectations have not been met. He is good at pointing fingers at all convenient scapegoats. Someone who is making 50K a year when they should be making 80K is going to be angry. Someone who was fired and replaced with a younger worker will be livid. I have seen technology take jobs from people more than immigrants. It is a terrible feeling. Most of my peers and I are now working freelance jobs. Sometimes its voluntary but often times it is because we can't find full time jobs with benefits. For those of us over 60 it is the only work available. If you have never been independent you are in for a shock at how hard it can be to run a small sole proprietor business from scratch.
Trump has said that he hires people from other countries over American citizens and thinks Americans are already overpaid. So, why is he so popular with the angry voters who are living from paycheck to paycheck or were forced to retire? Trump is part of the problem, not the solution. The working class voters need wage insurance or a living wage solution and they need the government to step in and help them. Remember the WPA programs from the 30s? My guess is that Trump's supporters don't want to be the takers after years of thinking they were above that and were the makers. Surprise, we are all in the same boat.
Trump has said that he hires people from other countries over American citizens and thinks Americans are already overpaid. So, why is he so popular with the angry voters who are living from paycheck to paycheck or were forced to retire? Trump is part of the problem, not the solution. The working class voters need wage insurance or a living wage solution and they need the government to step in and help them. Remember the WPA programs from the 30s? My guess is that Trump's supporters don't want to be the takers after years of thinking they were above that and were the makers. Surprise, we are all in the same boat.
48
Ms Muppet: I could not agree more with your comment on Trump and his culpability in creating the very desperate life scenarios facing folks across the country.
But their Republican and Democrat governments have not helped these American citizens and military service veterans one iota.
So here we are. Staring at the possibility of an egomaniacal jerk tough talker heading into power. He will not fix the problems. He will scapegoat his way into the history books and his ego will get all the stroking it needs. Sad
But their Republican and Democrat governments have not helped these American citizens and military service veterans one iota.
So here we are. Staring at the possibility of an egomaniacal jerk tough talker heading into power. He will not fix the problems. He will scapegoat his way into the history books and his ego will get all the stroking it needs. Sad
Because they are angry people voting with their hearts and not their heads.
The message I hear in Trump's speeches is that America has lost its greatness. Trump believes that America can regain its 'Greatness' by becoming 'Rich' again (in wealth). He also believes he is the only one who, as President, can make America Rich again because he is 'very very' Rich himself. He also tells people that a great President need only have business sense to make 'Deals' and it is not necessary to have any political skills. Here, Trump has just the qualifications to be President.
His followers buy into his rhetoric and truly believe that he will make America Rich & Great again and thereby help trickle down the economic boom (he will trigger the greatest economic boom god ever imagined just as he will be the greatest jobs President god ever gave America). The trickle down economics has been the Republican pitch for decades and started with Reagan. Results have been poor at best.
I also believe that the wind is in Trump's sails and he will win in November. We will have 4 years of 'Trumponomics' to see if he actually makes America Rich and Great again or plunge the country into ruin as other demagogues did to their nations in the years gone by.
Time will tell.
His followers buy into his rhetoric and truly believe that he will make America Rich & Great again and thereby help trickle down the economic boom (he will trigger the greatest economic boom god ever imagined just as he will be the greatest jobs President god ever gave America). The trickle down economics has been the Republican pitch for decades and started with Reagan. Results have been poor at best.
I also believe that the wind is in Trump's sails and he will win in November. We will have 4 years of 'Trumponomics' to see if he actually makes America Rich and Great again or plunge the country into ruin as other demagogues did to their nations in the years gone by.
Time will tell.
13
SRK you write off the good senses of a majority Americans too easily.
@SRK - What Trump is Really saying is "Make America White Again."
Education-deficient folks are Trump's base, hence, easily provoked into submission to a 'strongman', a bully that provokes and enhances their fears and anger...as they may not be able to compete in a highly developed world, whose expertise in technology, globalization and automation, not only in services but in products, has left them behind. Trump's empty promises to bring back jobs and money and prosperity do not add up. So, as the first premise of any charlatan, that of self-serving, comes into the open, no amount of boasting will do. And disappointment in political fraud may debase the necessary trust in the process.
16
Yes. Thus we are treated to hearing Trump himself bellow repeatedly how he "loves the poorly educated!"
As Jefferson observed, a successful democracy depends on an educated electorate.
As Jefferson observed, a successful democracy depends on an educated electorate.
I was born and raised in New York City. Parents too. Guess what? I am an American. English is my language and the language of my country. That some distant relative eons ago might have been a Baron, or a mason, a merchant, or a highwayman (my personal preference for ancestry although a castle would be really great), matters not one iota. I must admit to a post graduate degree, so I guess I am educated.
Defining one's self as American does not portend their politics. I am sure there are many like me, those who love our country in spite of the fact there is but a short string from where ever to here, who find The Donald significantly more than abhorrent to the ideals of our native land.
Defining one's self as American does not portend their politics. I am sure there are many like me, those who love our country in spite of the fact there is but a short string from where ever to here, who find The Donald significantly more than abhorrent to the ideals of our native land.
19
Maybe this surge in support for Trump (Trumpism?) should serve as a wake-up call to our elites to address the economic plight of those (most of us) they have discarded for cheaper labor elsewhere, before things really start to destabilize and degenerate into chaos.
53
The problem isn't that a person without a high school diploma can't find a job. This is America. It is the year 2016. They don't have a high school diploma. Of course they can't find a job.
The problem is that, in the most developed country in the history of the planet, there are somehow lots of people without high school diplomas and with no valuable skills whatsoever.
Instead of destroying the vast benefits of free trade to subsidize the existence of people who for whatever reason have fallen *very* far behind in terms of education, training, and productivity (Trump's plan) we should be implementing policies and investing in resources that ensure as many people as possible are adequately prepared to contribute in today's changing, modern economy (read: have at least a college degree) and as few people as possible fall behind.
Prepare people to be successful in a world that is only becoming increasingly complex. Don't enable their deficiencies at everyone else's expense.
The problem is that, in the most developed country in the history of the planet, there are somehow lots of people without high school diplomas and with no valuable skills whatsoever.
Instead of destroying the vast benefits of free trade to subsidize the existence of people who for whatever reason have fallen *very* far behind in terms of education, training, and productivity (Trump's plan) we should be implementing policies and investing in resources that ensure as many people as possible are adequately prepared to contribute in today's changing, modern economy (read: have at least a college degree) and as few people as possible fall behind.
Prepare people to be successful in a world that is only becoming increasingly complex. Don't enable their deficiencies at everyone else's expense.
6
" ensure as many people as possible are adequately prepared to contribute in today's changing, modern economy (read: have at least a college degree) and as few people as possible fall behind."
It is generally accepted that one needs an IQ of at least 110 to do college level that would leave out more than 55% of all US high school students. The only way such students would ever get a college degree would be if college courses were dumbed down to
meet their level of intelligence.
It is generally accepted that one needs an IQ of at least 110 to do college level that would leave out more than 55% of all US high school students. The only way such students would ever get a college degree would be if college courses were dumbed down to
meet their level of intelligence.
9
I have to agree with Charles. There will continue to be a necessity to provide employment and meaningful lives for the left side of the curve. This will be the challenge facing us, our children, and likely our grandchildren.
12
The Trump phenomena is is many ways the fault of all of us, including liberls who have failed to really address either the ills of public education or weak employment. For some reason our politicians are not ptofits of hope and encouragement and for many years the Congress has completely ignored urban America, poverty, loss of jobs, retraining, etc. These failure together with a corrupt political system and a deliberately do nothing Congress have planted the seeds of revolution of which Trump ans Sanders are among the first results.
21
Strange but you never mention the two vanity wars, that cost us blood and treasure, started by conservatives or the big tax breaks given to the 1% who didn't want to pay for the war; and didn't need more money!
What about the care of the troops when they have been maimed or wounded. The troops have to depend on corrupt charities for their needs!
Shocking and appalling! How did we get here?
What about the care of the troops when they have been maimed or wounded. The troops have to depend on corrupt charities for their needs!
Shocking and appalling! How did we get here?
A list of truths and ironies:
Everything comes down to jobs one can live on. I have heard no real plans to create jobs. More outsourcing and more automation will increase the numbers of the unemployed and the ill without means. Banks are sitting on money. Overpopulation increases worldwide. These trends conflict.
FDR knew how to create jobs in so many sectors, in so many fields. National programs for artists, the CCC (my father worked in that), the entire NRA. Who has any plans at all. They all mouth "jobs" but—explain. Bernie comes closest. Raise minimum wage and begin much-needed infrastructure projects.
Another irony—African Americans have been here in the US for more generations than most citizens.
Trump voters are human beings, and they have stories. I think they need to tell them, and we have to listen to them, in order to ever get out of all this. Simply despising them cannot move us forward.
Everything comes down to jobs one can live on. I have heard no real plans to create jobs. More outsourcing and more automation will increase the numbers of the unemployed and the ill without means. Banks are sitting on money. Overpopulation increases worldwide. These trends conflict.
FDR knew how to create jobs in so many sectors, in so many fields. National programs for artists, the CCC (my father worked in that), the entire NRA. Who has any plans at all. They all mouth "jobs" but—explain. Bernie comes closest. Raise minimum wage and begin much-needed infrastructure projects.
Another irony—African Americans have been here in the US for more generations than most citizens.
Trump voters are human beings, and they have stories. I think they need to tell them, and we have to listen to them, in order to ever get out of all this. Simply despising them cannot move us forward.
45
"FDR knew how to create jobs in so many sectors, in so many fields. National programs for artists,"
The jobs engine the drove the US to its post war boom was the manufacturing sector. That has been gutted - by US consumer decisions.
FDR did not practice racial identity politics.
The jobs engine the drove the US to its post war boom was the manufacturing sector. That has been gutted - by US consumer decisions.
FDR did not practice racial identity politics.
11
Jp—I don't know that consumers ever had a choice. Seems gutted by profit motives.
The jobs engine that drove the US was military production for the US and its allies. The post-war boom was also helped by the fact that Germany and Japan had been destroyed and the UK bankrupt giving the US more than 60% of the world's industrial capacity.
1
I was not aware that I am a low income, non-educated white extremist.
I shall remind myself of that when I ponder the continued subscription to your digital publication.
Until now I had deceived myself into believing that I am a college educated hard working East coast Caucasian with moderate views and a penchant for reading a multi-faceted world class newspaper. However, the continued biased reports concerning Mr. Trump and his campaign are quite distasteful and have completely lost objectivity.
Now, the journalistic attacks have moved toward his supporters and potential voters. Well, as with many of my fellow unintelligent white trash friends this only cements my unwavering support for the Trump campaign.
I shall remind myself of that when I ponder the continued subscription to your digital publication.
Until now I had deceived myself into believing that I am a college educated hard working East coast Caucasian with moderate views and a penchant for reading a multi-faceted world class newspaper. However, the continued biased reports concerning Mr. Trump and his campaign are quite distasteful and have completely lost objectivity.
Now, the journalistic attacks have moved toward his supporters and potential voters. Well, as with many of my fellow unintelligent white trash friends this only cements my unwavering support for the Trump campaign.
38
Wordy, yet defensive. Be proud of your political inclinations; self-pity is repellent.
And your willful defiance of the facts and unwavering support of this demagogue, who has no qualification to stand for public office, will endanger world peace and our security at home. Why don't you have the courage to at least identify yourself with a first name and a location, Mr. or Ms. Anonymous from Somewhere?
I think that you are confusing a moderate correlation with a perfect correlation. There is nothing in this report on these data indicating that every Trump supporter, including you, shares the listed characteristics. Thus there is no call for you to take personal umbrage.
Trump support comes from the most vulnerable segment of Americans: less educated, low income, and mostly unemployed. These Americans are not just white and native-born but also black and other economically disadvantaged Americans. That they are supporters of Trump is not shocking but to be expected, not just here but everywhere else. Successive administrations, both Democrat and Republican, have failed in maintaining the social safety nest and expanding education and employment opportunities. It must be said that the gutting of social safety nest and government spending on social programs started with Reagan and assisted by both Democrats and Republicans for the last few decades. Let's not demonize, patronize or look down on Trump supporters as racists or uninformed or religious zealots for they are just plain folks angry and frustrated by an economy favoring the upper middle class and rich and an arrogant and out of touch government, federal and local. This is a wakeup call.
21
These people are the seedbed of fascism as were the educated poor the seedbed of communism. An oversimplification I know, but roughly the case. The Republican party has decided to sow it, but will in the end come to regret the harvest. It will be bitter. Should they achieve the 'triple crown' this November it will be a national and global disaster making the economic disaster of 2008 pale in comparison. Should Hillary become president it will only delay the inevitable. The 1% want it. They want it ALL!
18
61% are white with no high school diploma.
This is the Party of Stupid the Republican carefully constructed through painstaking racism, defunding of public education, defunding of infrastructure, hate radio, Fox-Henhouse News and trickle-down poverty.
Donald Trump's supporters are the direct result of the Republican's decades-long efforts at dumbing down a large swath of Americans.
The Republican Party needs to take a giant proud bow as their electorate walks down the runway of nationally-assisted-suicide.
This is the Party of Stupid the Republican carefully constructed through painstaking racism, defunding of public education, defunding of infrastructure, hate radio, Fox-Henhouse News and trickle-down poverty.
Donald Trump's supporters are the direct result of the Republican's decades-long efforts at dumbing down a large swath of Americans.
The Republican Party needs to take a giant proud bow as their electorate walks down the runway of nationally-assisted-suicide.
66
You are misinterpreting the analysis. This is a correlation analysis and what it says is that there is a moderately strong positive correlation between the % of people in a county that are white and have no high school and the % of people that support Trump. The 61 number is the correlation coefficient. The analysis does NOT show that folks in mobile homes vote for Trump.
12
Um ... Socrates ... you do realize a correlation coefficient of 0.61 does not mean "61% [of Trump supporters] are white with no high school diploma."
It means that white people without high school diplomas have a strong tendency to support Trump. It does not tell you what percentage of Trump supporters are whites without diplomas.
Might want to check up on your own math skills there before you run your mouth further against various parts of the electorate. You seem a little rusty to me.
It means that white people without high school diplomas have a strong tendency to support Trump. It does not tell you what percentage of Trump supporters are whites without diplomas.
Might want to check up on your own math skills there before you run your mouth further against various parts of the electorate. You seem a little rusty to me.
Re. the Party of Stupid .... a correlation of 0.61 does not mean 61% of Trump supporters are white and with no high school diploma.
I don't support Trump or the GOP, but I know many people that do; not one of them fits this profile.
Racism lurks - always - near the surface for ALL human beings. Don't believe me? Go take Harvard's Project Implicit tests (free) and learn about your own racist proclivities!
By nature, all human beings tend toward tribalism; we are *wired* to notice and react to "difference". Civilization is the mass awareness of that proclivity towards shunning or rejecting "the other" and creating laws to stop it from becoming reality.
When people become stressed, the veneer of civilization starts to break down - our more primitive, wired behaviors take over. That's what is happening now.
We also have a huge propensity - as a species - towards cooperation. We have to somehow keep pursuing that "Better Angel of Our Nature" to keep the tide from turning permanently ugly.
Racism lurks - always - near the surface for ALL human beings. Don't believe me? Go take Harvard's Project Implicit tests (free) and learn about your own racist proclivities!
By nature, all human beings tend toward tribalism; we are *wired* to notice and react to "difference". Civilization is the mass awareness of that proclivity towards shunning or rejecting "the other" and creating laws to stop it from becoming reality.
When people become stressed, the veneer of civilization starts to break down - our more primitive, wired behaviors take over. That's what is happening now.
We also have a huge propensity - as a species - towards cooperation. We have to somehow keep pursuing that "Better Angel of Our Nature" to keep the tide from turning permanently ugly.
29
Interesting. The counties where Trump is most popular also have the lowest employment participation rates. Ordinarily, those folks would be expected to vote Democratic, which is more likely to continue the government spending that sustains them. Trump followers are willing to support him even though it is probably against their economic interest.
So how to explain this? The strong correlation to previous support for George Wallace suggests it's about identity. A certain segment of the population does not accept diversity and change. They cling to white supremacy.
The irony, as the article notes, is that these are the same folks who self-identify their heritage as "American," rather than, say "English" or "German." However, to me, they seem very un-American.
So how to explain this? The strong correlation to previous support for George Wallace suggests it's about identity. A certain segment of the population does not accept diversity and change. They cling to white supremacy.
The irony, as the article notes, is that these are the same folks who self-identify their heritage as "American," rather than, say "English" or "German." However, to me, they seem very un-American.
19
I recommend to you to you the book) by Robert Frank) "what's the matter with Kansas?," which explores in depth the themes you mention.
I will use this platform to reiterate: We need a national job market, set up and financed by the federal government, at least initially. It would function at any point of economic condition, but it's main goal would be to find anyone a job instantly in the case of any kind of job loss, and especially during the onset of a recession.
It would employ trained career counselors and It's infrastructure could reside largely on the internet. Even fact-to-face meetings with counselors and prospective employers could be conducted using technologies such as Skype or whatever is best. In a country as big as this, recessions are uneven. The idea is that through a national job market, anyone could find a job instantly somewhere in the country according to their qualifications. Relocation may be necessary, but assistance with that would be build into the system. It would become part of the social safety net.
It should largely eliminate the suffering caused by recessions and the regional loss of jobs. It would have the additional benefits of boosting the economy and lessening the need for government welfare.
It would employ trained career counselors and It's infrastructure could reside largely on the internet. Even fact-to-face meetings with counselors and prospective employers could be conducted using technologies such as Skype or whatever is best. In a country as big as this, recessions are uneven. The idea is that through a national job market, anyone could find a job instantly somewhere in the country according to their qualifications. Relocation may be necessary, but assistance with that would be build into the system. It would become part of the social safety net.
It should largely eliminate the suffering caused by recessions and the regional loss of jobs. It would have the additional benefits of boosting the economy and lessening the need for government welfare.
16
In addition, think about what it could do for the homelessness problem. Instead of someone being one rent payment away from becoming homeless, if they lost their job, another would be found instantly. Landlords would know this and the whole landlord-tenant relationship would be transformed. Or, they could relocate with government assistance.
4
I am sure that all the government worshiping "progressives" would be in favor of your program as it would allow them to add even more useless, parasitic bureaucrats to the millions that already infest all levels of government. It would also give their great god government even more control of our daily lives, just like it was in the old Soviet Union.
2
@ Charles W. - Don't you know that 5 out of 7 Democratic administrations shrunk government while 5 out of 7 Republican administrations grew it?
Bet you also don't know that Reagan ballooned the federal debt almost 200%, and raised taxes multiple times to pay for it.
We Progressives are getting mighty tired of cleaning up after Republicans. And the Blue states - who pay more into the federal government than we get back so the federal government can send it to the net negative Red States - are wondering when you Republicans are going to start pulling your own weight.
Bet you also don't know that Reagan ballooned the federal debt almost 200%, and raised taxes multiple times to pay for it.
We Progressives are getting mighty tired of cleaning up after Republicans. And the Blue states - who pay more into the federal government than we get back so the federal government can send it to the net negative Red States - are wondering when you Republicans are going to start pulling your own weight.
The shift to the right that makes Trump's celebrity possible -- let's face it -- began in the early 70s, according to a respectable study by political scientists Rosenthal and Poole. It antedates Obama's presidency so race can't be a determing factor. After all, it led to a sham impeachment of Bill Clinton.
The irony of all this is that, yes, the world is shifting out from under the feet of the less-educated poor, but none of us face a really BIG or YUGE problem like slavery, Civil War, total war, a Great Depression, or even a gold/silver conflict. Yet Ken Lay and others can seriously muse over the possibility of secession from the union.
The goals that so many of T's supporters are crying for are already in the process of being achieved -- the debt is too high but the national deficit has been cut in half under Obama. Millions now have health care that they didn't have before. "Taxed Enough Already" couldn't be more of an inept slogan.
I wonder sometimes if the collapse of the USSR was such a good thing. Having a common enemy provided a kind of glue that held us together. Now some of us seem -- recklessly., hysterically, feverishly -- anxious to find an equally powerful enemy in our own ranks.
The irony of all this is that, yes, the world is shifting out from under the feet of the less-educated poor, but none of us face a really BIG or YUGE problem like slavery, Civil War, total war, a Great Depression, or even a gold/silver conflict. Yet Ken Lay and others can seriously muse over the possibility of secession from the union.
The goals that so many of T's supporters are crying for are already in the process of being achieved -- the debt is too high but the national deficit has been cut in half under Obama. Millions now have health care that they didn't have before. "Taxed Enough Already" couldn't be more of an inept slogan.
I wonder sometimes if the collapse of the USSR was such a good thing. Having a common enemy provided a kind of glue that held us together. Now some of us seem -- recklessly., hysterically, feverishly -- anxious to find an equally powerful enemy in our own ranks.
17
As I read this article I began to confront an uncomfortable reality. We, as a society are to blame for Mr. Trump's support. Apparently we have ignored or overlooked the tragic plight faced by a sizable minority. Imagine the unemployed coal minor in West Virgina. His financial life is probably a shambles and he has no realistic prospect of recovering. He feels hopeless and abandoned. He sees publicized efforts to address problems of ethnic minorities and immigrants, yet he sits cold and jobless without anyone clamoring to address his situation. He starts getting angry and frustrated.
Then, out of nowhere someone comes who appears to want to fight for him. Finally, someone who might champion his cause. Bring back jobs. Stop cheap labor from coming in.
It doesn't matter that his trust may be completely misplaced, nor that his fears are exploited. No, finally someone listens to him. It is we who have paid little attention to such people. It is we who exert little effort to provide them hope. It is we who have created many of the millions who now support
Trump. And only we can embrace these people, address their concerns, and remove the hopelessness which compels them to desperately support the only one who they believe cares about them.
Then, out of nowhere someone comes who appears to want to fight for him. Finally, someone who might champion his cause. Bring back jobs. Stop cheap labor from coming in.
It doesn't matter that his trust may be completely misplaced, nor that his fears are exploited. No, finally someone listens to him. It is we who have paid little attention to such people. It is we who exert little effort to provide them hope. It is we who have created many of the millions who now support
Trump. And only we can embrace these people, address their concerns, and remove the hopelessness which compels them to desperately support the only one who they believe cares about them.
54
It's obvious that the changing economy has structurally disadvantaged many less educated people across America. But, it is also true that economically distressed whites enjoy access to exactly the same programs that assist minorities. They just don't "feel" like this is true.
I can't count the number of my husband's uneducated white southern relations who have taken extensive advantage, repeatedly, of both state and federal programs, including unemployment, food stamps, occasional welfare, and (sometimes specious) "disability." (My husband's mother was one of 11 born to poor sharecroppers, and the only one to leave her subculture – – my Ivy-educated, highly successful husband has almost 50 first cousins down south, most living within 150 miles of where my mother-in-law was born).
These relatives, who are very pleasant to talk to on a one-to-one basis, are the same people who send us rabid chain emails about how Obama hates America, how we need to "take back our country," etc. "The blacks" are "parasites and takers" and the real reason they invariably vote Republican. They see no relationship between their own "taking" and the "taking" by blacks and Hispanics.
I would be shocked if the vast majority of my husband's relatives didn't vote for Trump. I fear I will have the opportunity to find out this summer, at the next family reunion hoedown. Even worse, they're strict Baptist (at least in group settings), so I won't even be able to steel myself with strong spirits.
I can't count the number of my husband's uneducated white southern relations who have taken extensive advantage, repeatedly, of both state and federal programs, including unemployment, food stamps, occasional welfare, and (sometimes specious) "disability." (My husband's mother was one of 11 born to poor sharecroppers, and the only one to leave her subculture – – my Ivy-educated, highly successful husband has almost 50 first cousins down south, most living within 150 miles of where my mother-in-law was born).
These relatives, who are very pleasant to talk to on a one-to-one basis, are the same people who send us rabid chain emails about how Obama hates America, how we need to "take back our country," etc. "The blacks" are "parasites and takers" and the real reason they invariably vote Republican. They see no relationship between their own "taking" and the "taking" by blacks and Hispanics.
I would be shocked if the vast majority of my husband's relatives didn't vote for Trump. I fear I will have the opportunity to find out this summer, at the next family reunion hoedown. Even worse, they're strict Baptist (at least in group settings), so I won't even be able to steel myself with strong spirits.
43
Thank you for recognizing this.
They can vote for the guy who blames their economic woes on immigrants and has no viable plans to help them, or they can vote for Bernie.
Most of us do feel for these people, but voting against the country's better interests for decades is what put us in this position - and they're about to do it again, but this time it's even worse because Trump's a fascist.
Most of us do feel for these people, but voting against the country's better interests for decades is what put us in this position - and they're about to do it again, but this time it's even worse because Trump's a fascist.
Yep, we get it. Trump backers are the lowest on the socio-economic-scale and probably rarely read this paper, and much fewer comment on articles.
There's one problem, which is the alternative for the Republican nomination, happens to be even more radical, by all evidence a dominion-ist version of evangelical Christianity which is like those Muslims who favor Gods law (Sharia) to become the law of the land. Not a small minority, but according to Pew Research a sizable percentiage.
Oh, and about the "myth" that opposition to Islam is only is by simplistic Islamophobes. Let me suggest for those who didn't get to it, this article about about the premier public intellectual of France: "Once Hopeful for Harmony, a Philosopher Voices Discord in France" It said that he has concluded that Islam is not comparable with 'Western enlightenment values."
The problem is that "Thug Trump," just so happens to touch on some truths, and existing bi-partisan defects that we ignore. Funny, as different as they are, Ralph Nader made the same point, that the major defects of our country are supported by both parties and thus untouchable.
I guess the nature of a revolutionary is part misfit but also sensing the time is ripe for a drastic change. It may be better to look less at the person, and more that the endemic defects that he promises to change. From Huey Long to Norman Thomas, outsiders have had positive effects.
AlRodbell.com
There's one problem, which is the alternative for the Republican nomination, happens to be even more radical, by all evidence a dominion-ist version of evangelical Christianity which is like those Muslims who favor Gods law (Sharia) to become the law of the land. Not a small minority, but according to Pew Research a sizable percentiage.
Oh, and about the "myth" that opposition to Islam is only is by simplistic Islamophobes. Let me suggest for those who didn't get to it, this article about about the premier public intellectual of France: "Once Hopeful for Harmony, a Philosopher Voices Discord in France" It said that he has concluded that Islam is not comparable with 'Western enlightenment values."
The problem is that "Thug Trump," just so happens to touch on some truths, and existing bi-partisan defects that we ignore. Funny, as different as they are, Ralph Nader made the same point, that the major defects of our country are supported by both parties and thus untouchable.
I guess the nature of a revolutionary is part misfit but also sensing the time is ripe for a drastic change. It may be better to look less at the person, and more that the endemic defects that he promises to change. From Huey Long to Norman Thomas, outsiders have had positive effects.
AlRodbell.com
22
I'm waiting for the analysis on Clinton supporters, especially in the south. I wonder how many of them have a high school diploma, live in a trailer, and have a history of voting for socialists. The fact that this hit piece is presented as serious analysis contributes to the ignorance on the left on what is driving Trump's popularity.
40
Let's not forget the analysis of Bernie's supporters. No doubt a big correlation of non-working college students who've yet to make any real contribution but are being fed this suggestion that they are of a superior intellect to Trump's supporters. And what's the correlation of his supporters who have student loans he wants to forgive?
10
I agree with your Clinton Analysis. And while the Times is at it, maybe they could determine what percentage of Obama supporters were similarly situated (in terms of economical and educational standing) to many of those now supporting Trump. Truth be told, Trump is supported by numerous highly educated people who choose not to support known liars and/or socialists. These same people are tired of candidates who are bought and paid for by secret and evil Super PACs-- Trump is not controlled by these groups. Rubio, Kasich, Cruz and C;inton are.
12
Enlighten us then...what is driving Trump's popularity, if it is not ignorance, nativism, racism, and fear?
Good,
So for once white non high school graduates who live in trailers will not be determining the way the rest of us live our lives. These people all ready have way too much power in the Senate. (and are responsible for foisting Bush on us) Consider both California (Pop. 33 Million plus) and Wyoming (pop. less than a million?) have the same number of Senators. (2)
Since Trump will not win the election these people will not determine our future for the next 4 years.
So for once white non high school graduates who live in trailers will not be determining the way the rest of us live our lives. These people all ready have way too much power in the Senate. (and are responsible for foisting Bush on us) Consider both California (Pop. 33 Million plus) and Wyoming (pop. less than a million?) have the same number of Senators. (2)
Since Trump will not win the election these people will not determine our future for the next 4 years.
11
There is only one interesting question regarding Trump: can he win Ohio and Florida in the national elections? Otherwise his campaign will turn into a footnote in American history like the campaign of many other unsuccessful candidates (Dukakis someone?). His voters, then, will be forgotten, as they usually are, until the next elections. That's the only time America's, winner takes it all culture, remembers those people exist.
3
If policy hadn't been influenced by campaign funding, perhaps we would be in a better situation. Maybe congress would have paid more attention to improving the education system. It's a shame that most people don't understand that their only true weapon is voting for someone that isn't in debt to an industry.
If we don't change our campaign finance system, nothing will change. Our voices will never be heard, our needs will never be met and policy will continue to favor profit, not people.
If we don't change our campaign finance system, nothing will change. Our voices will never be heard, our needs will never be met and policy will continue to favor profit, not people.
24
We often look for rationales to justify our positions or actions that are under-pinned by racial prejudice. "Islam hates us" truly reflects Donald "Duck" Trump's deeply seated bigotry and unfortunately resonates at a conscious or subconscious level with many white, poorly educated people who want to blame everyone but themselves for the messes many of them have created in their lives. So many of the comments on this piece seem to fall into the category of subliminal rationales for long held prejudices that many of us have but don't understand.
2
Unless Clinton is indicted, she'll probably win in Nov. Trump will just not be able to muster a popular or electoral majority considering the segments of Republican voters he has turned off. Whether Trump can appeal to enough independent or even blue collar Democrats is problematic absent some sensational catastrophe in the economy or in government.
But you never know. Recall the charge of "Rum, Romanism, and rebellion" late in the 1884 election. It changed history.
But you never know. Recall the charge of "Rum, Romanism, and rebellion" late in the 1884 election. It changed history.
1
except for the fact that unlike the rest of the field who are ideologues or they wouldnt have support of the repub "mainstream" moneybags, trump knows how to negotiate and has a more practical attitude. its called "compromise" and if you happen to have missed it, its the dirtiest 4-letter word in the repub "vocabulary" such that it is (see; we refuse to give SCOTUS judge even a hearing, no new taxes on filthy rich, no funding global warming inititives etc). so rather than having another republican "nattering nabob of negativism", it's be nice to have somebody who you can usually do business with rather than infantile 6 y/o's masquerading as congressmen.
This really stinks. I live in California, and it will be another 6 weeks before I even get my sample ballot in the mail for the June primary. We are still 4 weeks away from other more progressive populations voting in New York and the west coast. By then, all those southern and mid-western red states filled with Trump-ites will have determined who I get to pick. Only the last vestige of the scraps from a field of 17 representing the party of NO will be listed on our ballot, with the moderates having spent all their money trying to persuade the high-school educated that it’s not cool to be rude.
The way I see it — 2 out of 3 Republicans don’t even vote for Mr. Trump, yet those 1 of 3 voices will determine who makes it to my ballot? By the time the circus comes for the big California prize, our only choice after last summer’s list of possibilities, will be . . . Mr. Trump or those other two scary Senators? That is not much of a choice, is it.
The way I see it — 2 out of 3 Republicans don’t even vote for Mr. Trump, yet those 1 of 3 voices will determine who makes it to my ballot? By the time the circus comes for the big California prize, our only choice after last summer’s list of possibilities, will be . . . Mr. Trump or those other two scary Senators? That is not much of a choice, is it.
20
It wasn't much of a choice when there were 17 of them.
Mr. Trump says plenty of racist things in the way blue collar whites say them. They are ignorant and sometimes offensive. But racism in the US is complicated. Some people who say the right things do the worst things, and vice versa. What gets you in trouble is saying blue-collar stuff like "nappy-headed ho's" White liberals are the most politically correct and the most critical of crude speech. But white liberals often have less contact with blacks than any other whites. Bigotry is not easily identified.
15
michjas...The Birther movement - Donald Trump's scurrilous claim to political fame - was a massive consumer fraud predicated on Making The White House Occupant White Again.
Sometimes bigotry is easily identified.
Sometimes bigotry is easily identified.
38
WHAT? Having lived in Arizona (Prescott - not "Preskit") I'm very familiar with this school of thought. It's an attempt to write off abject racism, and blame it on others who are branded "politically correct". Which is yet another "racist" label.
This is the strongest argument that could ever be made for pushing High School graduation rates nationwide.
27
I know many white people who are quite successful. They do not have any racial hostility. They are tired of the government not working for them then taxing them and taxing them more. They want the debt paid, borders secured, jobs, and the rest of the problems that this president chooses to ignore. It is called "against the establishment" because they have not and do not listen but insist on doing it their way. It is not working; do not make this racial. It is not.
18
Please learn the difference between what President Obama proposes and can do by himself, and what the Republican Congress does not do ("government not working for them"). There is not one "establishment." There are two (to simplify), one attempting to be constructive, and one proudly destructive.
55
Ah, David, you point out facts, and, in my experience, Trump supporters care little about those inconvenient things called facts.
24
please don't blame our current president. it's terrible that we cannot give him at least a third term.
2
I'm not sure I agree with this assessment. I live in the way over-educated suburbs of Washington DC, and support for Trump is sky high in GOP leaning circles. These are people with advanced degrees from tip schools, high income, and plenty of job options. Maybe my area is an anomaly, but my anecdotal evidence strongly suggests these authors started with a premise and then picked statistics to back the premise. They should instead have substituted Cruz fro Trump, whose supporters seem almost uniformly to come from right-leaning evangelicals who cite how smart he is because he went to Harvard. Here in the DC area, saying you went to Harvard will elicit eye rolls and a snarky "so did my cat".
21
It's high time we re-engage in our communities with love and empathy. We need less talk of the theoretical economics underpinning trade deals and the credibility of climate science. It's not because these things are unimportant or irrelevant to governing in a complex world, but because our neighbors are afraid we've forgotten them in all our sophistication. They need to hear and see that we care about them. Our ideas about common efforts to improve their lives need to be less about class and more about community. We need to be clear that even the least among us are important to our common future.
Trump's voters feel left out, ignored, unimportant. We can reach them, but it'll take a lot of love & patience.
Trump's voters feel left out, ignored, unimportant. We can reach them, but it'll take a lot of love & patience.
17
you've just made my skin crawl. if we have a government that runs along proper business principles we have our country back.
1
There's a very powerful stigma associated with being poor in this country. Frankly, it makes it nearly impossible for an elite institution like the Times to write about poor populations without those same people perceiving a condescending tone. At the first mention of trailer parks--even if that is an apt descriptor for a type of housing--the words begin to cut and defenses rise. When spoken by a rich person, those words demean, even if they're not meant to by the speaker.
30
I'm fairly certain that a pretty large percentage of those identifying as "American" are, in fact, "white Anglo-Saxon Protestants" ("American" as an identifier for ancestry is most common in the US South, which historically experienced low levels of immigration; those people of "American" ancestry are mostly the descendants of pre-Revolution British colonists, whose families have been American for so long that the immigrant experience has passed out of their collective historical consciousness. I'm very suspicious of the negative correlation there. (Also, "Anglo-Saxon" doesn't mean "European", it means specifically "English", as historically used.)
19
The Census data upon which this is based only allows a first and second ancestry, so people with four-different-quarters of ancestry are pushed towards the "American" response. And in the 2000 Census the most common First Ancestry is "not reported".
2
Don't people realize that technology, computers, automation and especially robots have replaced more manufacturing and more factories than all the illegal immigrants ever have? On many factory floors you hardly see any human beings at all. Every product is whisked along conveyor belts and assembled (or cooked), and then inspected, labeled, packaged and shipped with a minimum of human intervention. That's today's world. What are we to do? Protest against computers and robots.
Also, American corporations have zero loyalty to the USA. Their loyalty is to their bottom line. They take advantage of every tax loophole they can; and if their product is labor intensive they would much rather pay 5000 workers a dollar a day with no benefits rather than stay in America and have to pay someone $18 an hour will vacation time, holiday time off, Soc Sec taxes and Medicare taxes.
And to boot, all those savings don't go to providing American consumerw with a less expensive product. No. It trickles UP, to the CEO's and Executive Officers of the corporation.
Illegal immigration is not the problem. Plus, we have so much empty land in the US it's beyond one's imagination. If all illegal immigrants from the past 15 years all moved to New Mexico, or to Texas, or to Wyoming it would have zero affect on 99% of America.
Also, American corporations have zero loyalty to the USA. Their loyalty is to their bottom line. They take advantage of every tax loophole they can; and if their product is labor intensive they would much rather pay 5000 workers a dollar a day with no benefits rather than stay in America and have to pay someone $18 an hour will vacation time, holiday time off, Soc Sec taxes and Medicare taxes.
And to boot, all those savings don't go to providing American consumerw with a less expensive product. No. It trickles UP, to the CEO's and Executive Officers of the corporation.
Illegal immigration is not the problem. Plus, we have so much empty land in the US it's beyond one's imagination. If all illegal immigrants from the past 15 years all moved to New Mexico, or to Texas, or to Wyoming it would have zero affect on 99% of America.
34
During the Industrial Revolution, the Luddites famously sabotaged mechanical looms and other machinery. The machines themselves symbolized the decreasing value of ordinary workers.
We are in the early throes of another revolution now, and this one will even more dramatically favor those with superior cognitive abilities and education over those with average or below average cognitive abilities and education. Yet all people at all levels need to eat, have shelter, and pursue lives of dignity and meaning.
It remains unclear what kind of society will emerge from the current disruptions, but it is increasingly obvious that the transition will not be pretty.
We are in the early throes of another revolution now, and this one will even more dramatically favor those with superior cognitive abilities and education over those with average or below average cognitive abilities and education. Yet all people at all levels need to eat, have shelter, and pursue lives of dignity and meaning.
It remains unclear what kind of society will emerge from the current disruptions, but it is increasingly obvious that the transition will not be pretty.
30
"And to boot, all those savings don't go to providing American consumerw with a less expensive product. No. It trickles UP, to the CEO's and Executive Officers of the corporation."
Absolutely incorrect! The american consumer would pay much more if we restricted trade and gobalization.
The greed is a seperate moral issue.
Absolutely incorrect! The american consumer would pay much more if we restricted trade and gobalization.
The greed is a seperate moral issue.
6
Jamespb4,
Some General and Hasty Sweeping Generalisations there.
True - Most corporations have no loyalty to the US or its workers.
The savings created by manufacturing products overseas
do mainly go to the executives and shareholders.
False - Illegal Immigration creates no problems.
No, you could not move all the illegal immigrants to one state and
there, their presence would not have an effect on 99 % of Americans.
Local Schools/Local Hospitals/Local Housing would all be overwhelmed
and are overwhelmed because the Federal Laws mandates funding of
services for Immigrants whether they be legal or not - but the funding
is largely mandated by local taxes.
No other country allows illegal immigrants to enter and leave and re-enter
their country and then receive benefits/immunity from the laws on
immigration and mandated benefits. Perhaps illegal immigrants
provide more to the US then they take, perhaps they don't - but
when citizenship no longer matters - why in the world would you expect
the lowest income citizens to be loyal to the elite's view of how America
should be when their "Progressive" polices leave them reduced to poverty.
Some General and Hasty Sweeping Generalisations there.
True - Most corporations have no loyalty to the US or its workers.
The savings created by manufacturing products overseas
do mainly go to the executives and shareholders.
False - Illegal Immigration creates no problems.
No, you could not move all the illegal immigrants to one state and
there, their presence would not have an effect on 99 % of Americans.
Local Schools/Local Hospitals/Local Housing would all be overwhelmed
and are overwhelmed because the Federal Laws mandates funding of
services for Immigrants whether they be legal or not - but the funding
is largely mandated by local taxes.
No other country allows illegal immigrants to enter and leave and re-enter
their country and then receive benefits/immunity from the laws on
immigration and mandated benefits. Perhaps illegal immigrants
provide more to the US then they take, perhaps they don't - but
when citizenship no longer matters - why in the world would you expect
the lowest income citizens to be loyal to the elite's view of how America
should be when their "Progressive" polices leave them reduced to poverty.
1
I agree on economic dysfunction. Best example is the insider cannot deal with comprehensive tax reform. Only Trump is honest enough to ask have we made good trade deals? Bernie ask's why don't we have Universal Healthcare. When the largest economy in the world goes through a profound period of lower it' standard of living, it is unfair to finger Bernie or Donald.
15
I'm not so sure I agree with this assessment. I live in the way over-educates suburbs of Washington DC and there is very strong support here for Trump within GOP leaning people. At first I was astonished by this, but the more Ibsee of it the less astonished I am. It may seem convenient in progressive circles to assume that only the working class support Trump. I honestly think that authors like these start with a premise and then look for statistics. But the anecdotal statistics I see every day here seem to indicate a lot of support within well educated, well paid, and abundant employment options area too.
31
I also live in the DC suburbs and my experience differs greatly from yours. Among family members, friends, and colleagues, a mix of Republican and Democratic voters, I know of no one who is a Trump supporter. Nor are the Republicans Cruz supporters; in fact, they are quite subdued these days. The only energetic discussions I hear concern the Democratic candidates.
11
Virginia is still 'the south' even in Fairfax County, Arlington, Alexandria and Loudoun.
Although the conclusions ring true, the data presented offer a weak argument for those conclusions. The correlation coefficients don't make a case for any relationship at all. This isn't exactly pseudo-science. I don't doubt the data is "real." But it seems to me that statistics are being used here to make the article look science-based.
19
It's based on census data. Correlation is correlation
I get so tired of liberal name calling. I fit the leftist, coastal, highly educated, gainfully employed, white mold, but I have lived in states with large, rural, less educated populations and don't any reason to denigrate these people.
In many places, a college education is not economically viable. There used to be manufacturing and other jobs that paid well and didn't require college, and could be done even without high school diplomas. Many kids needed to work at a young age because the family had so little money.
While the Republicans were playing on the base's fears in order to get their votes before tossing them in the ditch, they drummed the line that it was all the government's fault, or the fault of "freeloaders" - typical propaganda ploys. They succeeded.
The point is that now, the entire middle class and working class have been fleeced by the Repubs AND the Dems, elected representatives who have shirked their duties and spent their time helping their billionaire puppetmasters.
Bernie supporters and Trump supporters have something big in common: their basic grievance, which is that the economy is rigged for the 1%. It's helpful to understand our differences, but then we should be finding common ground, not calling each other names. We're all people; we all deserve dignity and respect.
The only thing that's stupid is for the left side and the right side of the 99% to be fighting each other.
In many places, a college education is not economically viable. There used to be manufacturing and other jobs that paid well and didn't require college, and could be done even without high school diplomas. Many kids needed to work at a young age because the family had so little money.
While the Republicans were playing on the base's fears in order to get their votes before tossing them in the ditch, they drummed the line that it was all the government's fault, or the fault of "freeloaders" - typical propaganda ploys. They succeeded.
The point is that now, the entire middle class and working class have been fleeced by the Repubs AND the Dems, elected representatives who have shirked their duties and spent their time helping their billionaire puppetmasters.
Bernie supporters and Trump supporters have something big in common: their basic grievance, which is that the economy is rigged for the 1%. It's helpful to understand our differences, but then we should be finding common ground, not calling each other names. We're all people; we all deserve dignity and respect.
The only thing that's stupid is for the left side and the right side of the 99% to be fighting each other.
85
I bought into that "it's the fault of freeloaders" shtick for years, until i was laid off at age 50. Suddenly, I was one of those "freeloaders" with a 30 year impeccable work history and it changed my mind drastically. I've run into people like me from all walks of life; people with degrees and skills who lost jobs and are cut out of returning to the world of employment. I found something eventually, but at half the pay with no benefits.
I don't support Trump but he's tapped into the lives of people like me. Globalization has showed us that for those at the very top, the elites, our country and it's workers don't matter much as long as the money keeps flowing. Unfortunately, I can't see that Trump would do much to change that.
I don't support Trump but he's tapped into the lives of people like me. Globalization has showed us that for those at the very top, the elites, our country and it's workers don't matter much as long as the money keeps flowing. Unfortunately, I can't see that Trump would do much to change that.
18
I am a libertarian and it's refreshing to see that we have a lot in common. I agree that we should work harder to find common ground on the left and the right to fight, and destroy, corporatism and crony capitalism!
Sorry Robert, this was not an equal opportunity fleecing. The GOP has run on jobs and then double-crossed to throw women under the bus instead. Telling people to blame immigrants and black people is not OK when you are Trump manufacturing in China.
Yes, everyone deserves dignity and respect. Telling people in the South that it was ever OK to listen to Rush Limbaugh pap that cost them political power is not OK either. I have roots in Texas and extended roots in the South. People need to exert actual political power based on reality not follow these religious nut cases around. Our grandparents would have been appalled.
Yes, everyone deserves dignity and respect. Telling people in the South that it was ever OK to listen to Rush Limbaugh pap that cost them political power is not OK either. I have roots in Texas and extended roots in the South. People need to exert actual political power based on reality not follow these religious nut cases around. Our grandparents would have been appalled.
However crude his message, on trade Trump has a legitimate point, which is that the US (not US companies, which don't care about international boundaries, but US workers) has got the short end of trade deals for decades. Whatever benefits the US has gleaned from these deals, they are minuscule compared to their utterly transformative effects on India, Mexico and especially China, which begs the question of why we couldn't have negotiated a better deal, one less devastating to old-line manufacturing. It often seems US negotiators are driven more by a religious belief in and devotion to free-trade principles, than by national self-interest. Trump may be unfit to be president, but I don't doubt he would have driven a harder bargain and come out with a better deal, if only because, unlike US negotiators, he'd be fully prepared to walk away from a deal he didn't like.
32
10 variables most closely linked? Between .4 and .6. is as close as it gets to perfect? Sounds like six of one and half a dozen of the other, the toss of a coin would have yielded similar results.
What is telling are the variables chosen (questions such as HS Diploma, Mobile Home etc.). Why not also include variables with indicators for those who have a HS diploma, a degree, a job in the new economy, etc.? Business Owners? Outsourcing Companies? Movers & Shakers?
All I know is that there is no correlation between wisdom, emotional maturity, social responsibility and diploma/degree, type of home/ job, socio-economic level. Trump is a perfect example of this, but the list is long.
What is telling are the variables chosen (questions such as HS Diploma, Mobile Home etc.). Why not also include variables with indicators for those who have a HS diploma, a degree, a job in the new economy, etc.? Business Owners? Outsourcing Companies? Movers & Shakers?
All I know is that there is no correlation between wisdom, emotional maturity, social responsibility and diploma/degree, type of home/ job, socio-economic level. Trump is a perfect example of this, but the list is long.
12
Your first paragraph reflects a lack of understanding of how correlation coefficients work. Zero is perfect randomness, or no correlation whatsoever. Negative one is a perfect negative correlation. Positive one is a perfect positive correlation.
Your last paragraph begins with the phrase "All I know is…." As here, that preface is usually not followed up with empirically sound conclusions.
Your last paragraph begins with the phrase "All I know is…." As here, that preface is usually not followed up with empirically sound conclusions.
The author gently hints that most Trump supporters are trashy uneducated racist knownothings that should be re-educated to learn to appreciate the changes in the country's demographics, economics and world stature. However, if one exclude Mr. Sanders (whose singleminded focus on destroying the American capitalism and society as we know them makes him unattractive to many people who actually do want to live the American dream), there is no one else besides The Donald who takes an honest assessment of what the globalization had brought to these shores. Yes, $600B a year trade deficit in manufactured goods helped hundreds of millions of Chinese to afford TVs and cellphones, and tens of millions to afford cars - but the U.S. government should consider the interests of the U.S. workers first. Yes, money earned by the Indian "bodyshops" selling their H1B visa holders exceeds Indian exports http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-12/trump-visa-policy-thre...
and this is the money not earned by the U.S. computer scientists and not invested in our domestic economy - but it made a 4-month training class in Mumbai or Bangalore with then ticket to NYC and a bed in an apartment with another 10 people an attractive option for someone who otherwise would be hawking souvenirs to the American tourists.
And then you waive hands - why Trump...
and this is the money not earned by the U.S. computer scientists and not invested in our domestic economy - but it made a 4-month training class in Mumbai or Bangalore with then ticket to NYC and a bed in an apartment with another 10 people an attractive option for someone who otherwise would be hawking souvenirs to the American tourists.
And then you waive hands - why Trump...
24
This article may not be reliable because it seems to infer the behavior of individual voters from aggregate county-based data. The problem with it is not one of multicollinearity--that variables the listed variables being used to predict Trump votes may be more related with one another than the vote--but the more fundamental one of ecological inference, commonly referred to as "ecological fallacy." The aggregate may not translate into the individual. While there are workarounds to this involving fixes from some political scientists starting with Gary King, I doubt Irwin and Katz employed these. Without this fix, the numbers may as be accurate as pollster predictions for the Democratic vote in Michigan last week. Perhaps some editor might pursue this further.
10
Just had a discussion with a neighbor regarding Trump. This neighbor has only a HS education, is a strong religious right person - does not believe in evolution and believes the universe is about 6.000 years old based on Bishop Usher's reading of the bible. His preferred candidate is Cruz, our religious right person. He is also a birther and convinced Obama is out to destroy the christian religion.
I work with a group of very educated Belgians and they are astounded at the popularity of Trump.
To me and education is everything and we had a brief discussion on what would happen with a Trump presidency - that would be scary we thought. Yes we are educated and do very well economically.
I work with a group of very educated Belgians and they are astounded at the popularity of Trump.
To me and education is everything and we had a brief discussion on what would happen with a Trump presidency - that would be scary we thought. Yes we are educated and do very well economically.
13
James Baldwin, in a letter to his nephew wrote:
"They are in effect still trapped in a history which they do not understand and until they understand it, they cannot be released from it." - See more at: http://www.progressive.org/news/2014/12/5047/letter-my-nephew#sthash.Ff9...
Baldwin was referring in general to the type of person we today find voting for Trump. These people have ensnared themselves in their own xenophobic distrust of the differences found in an always changing world. Change is viewed as a negative, and so they do not change, even as the world around them is transformed. Our shifting world leaves them floundering and without a foundation to grasp. It is no surprise they clutch at Trump's promises to make America great again. After all their ancestry is "American".
"They are in effect still trapped in a history which they do not understand and until they understand it, they cannot be released from it." - See more at: http://www.progressive.org/news/2014/12/5047/letter-my-nephew#sthash.Ff9...
Baldwin was referring in general to the type of person we today find voting for Trump. These people have ensnared themselves in their own xenophobic distrust of the differences found in an always changing world. Change is viewed as a negative, and so they do not change, even as the world around them is transformed. Our shifting world leaves them floundering and without a foundation to grasp. It is no surprise they clutch at Trump's promises to make America great again. After all their ancestry is "American".
23
"What they have in common is that they have largely missed the generation-long transition of the United States away from manufacturing and into a diverse, information-driven economy deeply intertwined with the rest of the world."
Wow. What an elitist statement!
I strongly suspect Mr. Irwin and Mr.Katz grew up in gated, privileged communities and went to private schools. Trust funders. They never rubbed an elbow with factory worker (or interviewed one for this piece).
This very shallow study tells me what I already know: Trump supporters are working class folk whose jobs have gone overseas. They have little education. They are trailer trash (the authors put it more delicately). Not a surprise.
What it fails to address is the depth of their anger. That would require actually talking them (shiver).
The thing remember about The Great Unwashed Masses is that they are masses. There are lots of them.
Maybe they deserve a closer look than this.
Wow. What an elitist statement!
I strongly suspect Mr. Irwin and Mr.Katz grew up in gated, privileged communities and went to private schools. Trust funders. They never rubbed an elbow with factory worker (or interviewed one for this piece).
This very shallow study tells me what I already know: Trump supporters are working class folk whose jobs have gone overseas. They have little education. They are trailer trash (the authors put it more delicately). Not a surprise.
What it fails to address is the depth of their anger. That would require actually talking them (shiver).
The thing remember about The Great Unwashed Masses is that they are masses. There are lots of them.
Maybe they deserve a closer look than this.
46
And here's betting that Messers Irwin and Katz eat food, spend time in buildings, and buy all manner of manufactured items. All products of the "Old Economy" which they deride.
Perhaps, once agriculture vanishes, we can all survive on poorly-designed studies of voter demographics?
Perhaps, once agriculture vanishes, we can all survive on poorly-designed studies of voter demographics?
18
It's not an elitist statement. It is a reasonable inference from the data collected.
1
The GOP has been courting these voters for years because of their conservative voting patterns. Unfortunately, the GOP is run by trust funders that grew up in private communities and their policies have not helped this demographic at all. This group has rebelled against the power brokers in the GOP, who have been self-interested. Trump resonates with them because he is not beholden to the GOP power elite. This is a war within the GOP for power.
I recently met a man who had emigrated from Ecuador 15 years prior who is now living in the Bay Area and runs a successful wine distribution business. Much to my surprise, when the conversation turned to politics, he confessed his adulation for Mr. Trump. The way he saw it, he was as American as any white person because he worked hard and succeeded in this land, and he had the business to prove it. The notion of a wall against brown-skinned people didn't bother him one bit because why should he want to compete with even more immigrants who weren't from his country anyway? I thought of the religious convert becoming even more zealous than the everyday congregants. They desperately want to be accepted by the tribe. Its a frightening dynamic if you ask me.
14
Not everyone knows what their ethnic origin is. The only identity they have is "American". That was how I saw myself until I researched my genealogy and was DNA tested. Now I know that my ancestors were all here prior to the Revolutionary War and were mostly of British Isles descent. I think the same may be true of most of those people who look blank when you ask them what their ethnicity is. After 300-400 years, stories about the immigrant ancestors have been forgotten.
25
I too am a melting-pot American. ethnicity is primarily European, but not entirely, with many parts od Europe represented.
I too am a melting-pot American. Given the diversity of the lands of origin of my ancestors, "American" would be the only truthful answer I could give to a question about national origin. But I am not a Trump supporter by any means.
I too am a melting-pot American. Given the diversity of the lands of origin of my ancestors, "American" would be the only truthful answer I could give to a question about national origin. But I am not a Trump supporter by any means.
10
I'm with you there, Catdancer. I'm voting for Bernie Sanders. I'm 74, and this is the weirdest election season I've ever lived through.
Trump's less educated and less affluent supporters have reason to be angry, they're just angry toward the wrong people. Mexicans and Muslims are convenient scapegoats for an opportunistic demagogue in the mold of Donald Trump. Obama himself said recently that decisions to ship American jobs overseas are made in boardrooms, not in refugee camps. Photos and video of board members gathered around conference tables are not blasted across the front pages on an hourly basis. These powerful men and women are largely invisible (an obvious exception being Donald Trump.)
Down-at-heel "po white folk" don't need to be condescended to, explained away, then ignored. They need opportunities like everybody else.
Down-at-heel "po white folk" don't need to be condescended to, explained away, then ignored. They need opportunities like everybody else.
37
Ask any social scientist--people hate to look in the mirror. They'll swear that the mirror distorts them. More importantly, they're individuals. They want nothing less than to be part of statistic, especially if it's an unflattering one. The findings presented in this article are simple statistical correlations, yet the comments are littered with accusations of bias, appeals to anecdotal evidence, and an adamant refusal to accept facts as facts. Many people have a right to be angry, but those who dream of a Trump landslide come November had better take a hard look at these numbers and realize that he'll need to expand his base for those dreams to become a reality. If they don't, they'll be left behind once more with their collective voices amounting to nothing.
4
The category of population that appear to be Trump's most vocal backers, the less well educated, out of jobs and less well established are very much like the masses of discontents in Germany that backed Hitler and became the Nazis in 1928-1934.
48
OK, so Trump is popular among white under employed white trailer trash. These people must compete in the labor market against illegal aliens. They have been tricked, by the GOP establishment, into voting against their greater interest through dog whistle issues, such as the 2nd Amendment. They had the rug pulled out from under them by both parties, who implemented trade agreements with no adequate plan to address the collateral damage such agreements cause.
So why is anyone surprised that they support Trump? Who were they supposed to support, Jeb! ??
They may be under educated, but they are no longer stupid.
So why is anyone surprised that they support Trump? Who were they supposed to support, Jeb! ??
They may be under educated, but they are no longer stupid.
43
Ironically, the rise of Trump might revive the long-dead species: the Moderate Republican -- embodied as Kasich.
Moderate Republicans haven't done well in many decades. Who's even heard of Charles Percy, for example? How did John Lindsay do after being mayor of New York? Didn't Reagan effectively lose the 1976 nomination when he tried to "balance" the ticket by vowing to name liberal Senator Richard Schweiker as his running mate?
In the general election, a Moderate Republican will fare well, but the Republican primary process has made it virtually impossible for a Moderate Republican to get that far. Maybe this time, with Trump pushing the Republican Party to desperate measures (or so I hope), the hopes of a Moderate Republican (Kasich) will be realized.
Moderate Republicans haven't done well in many decades. Who's even heard of Charles Percy, for example? How did John Lindsay do after being mayor of New York? Didn't Reagan effectively lose the 1976 nomination when he tried to "balance" the ticket by vowing to name liberal Senator Richard Schweiker as his running mate?
In the general election, a Moderate Republican will fare well, but the Republican primary process has made it virtually impossible for a Moderate Republican to get that far. Maybe this time, with Trump pushing the Republican Party to desperate measures (or so I hope), the hopes of a Moderate Republican (Kasich) will be realized.
8
Look at his policies. John Kasich is anything but a moderate. He is an extreme radical right wing Republican, just like the rest of the lineup. The difference: his calm, well mannered demeanor.
1
Very interesting that expressing one's ethnicity as "American" is correlated with Trumpism. In my experience, a majority of white people outside of urban centers are likely to describe themselves that way pretty much because their ancestors have been in the USA long enough that they have mixed (though mostly white) backgrounds. Actually I found it odder than so many in NYC will ask what your background is and care whether you are Irish or German or whatever. Across the country I have found that most people are not attached to any particular country of origin so much. I could be one of those "Americans" but answer the question of ethnicity when it is posed as being a "mix" of several. And I am NO Trump supporter!
16
Trump basically represents the new "Dog Whistle" for scapegoating people of color, immigrants, or liberals, or any group out of favor. Right now that happens to be Muslims. We all learned a long time ago, or should have, that painting a broad, discriminating brush stroke over an entire group, race, nationality, or other identified people is wrong. Very wrong.
It's not just a little interesting that the Republicans' Southern Strategy has been playing out now for over 45 years. In making the analysis of Mr. Trump's core supporters is a direct correlation to George Wallace. This is from the 60's, and even he had the courage to apologize for his naked racism.
The just now events of a Trump rally in North Carolina in which the Donald loudly called out for two African American protestors to "go home to mom" and the ensuing "sucker punch" is just plain old fashioned racism. The following events in St. Louis and Chicago are a straight outgrowth of that incident: especially when the punch thrower gleefully talks about how good it felt, and that "next time we might have to kill him". After 7 plus years of Obama bashing by the GOP, what other conclusion can anyone reach that this election will be all about racism.
It's not just a little interesting that the Republicans' Southern Strategy has been playing out now for over 45 years. In making the analysis of Mr. Trump's core supporters is a direct correlation to George Wallace. This is from the 60's, and even he had the courage to apologize for his naked racism.
The just now events of a Trump rally in North Carolina in which the Donald loudly called out for two African American protestors to "go home to mom" and the ensuing "sucker punch" is just plain old fashioned racism. The following events in St. Louis and Chicago are a straight outgrowth of that incident: especially when the punch thrower gleefully talks about how good it felt, and that "next time we might have to kill him". After 7 plus years of Obama bashing by the GOP, what other conclusion can anyone reach that this election will be all about racism.
26
How about a profile of Secretary Clinton's low income, low education and low information voters- they are similar demographically except for race.
22
Make things up, much? In the real world, we have polls to show that Hillary kills it with older voters, high income voters, and married women--of all races. It is, in fact, mathematically impossible to earn 53% of the Democratic primary vote on voters without high school diplomas. Also, in head to head polls against Trump, she wins voters with college degrees by about 60/40. Good luck with your fantasy world!
20
As we see, those without a decent education are easily led by demagogues. People like Limbaugh, Boehner, and other GOP propagandists. You do not have to be a college graduate to be able to read and understand you are being led around by these people, but you do need at least some education in literature, history, politics, and even some philosophy.
I joined the USAF at 18, but was able to qualify for electronics schooling because I had algebra, reading and writing, took an electric shop class in high school, and it has paid for itself over the years. Then being with other people who had curiosity of the world about them, used the libraries available, and was able to associate with people who had education and world experiences.
So later I went on to college, and was actually ahead of many of my classmates. Most Trump supporters do not have that, they are easy prey for the traveling pitchmen and snake oil salesmen. And they believe what they like to believe, not necessarily what is factual.
Krishna save us.
I joined the USAF at 18, but was able to qualify for electronics schooling because I had algebra, reading and writing, took an electric shop class in high school, and it has paid for itself over the years. Then being with other people who had curiosity of the world about them, used the libraries available, and was able to associate with people who had education and world experiences.
So later I went on to college, and was actually ahead of many of my classmates. Most Trump supporters do not have that, they are easy prey for the traveling pitchmen and snake oil salesmen. And they believe what they like to believe, not necessarily what is factual.
Krishna save us.
27
Where is the proto-American, ur-American idea of the individual boldly carving out their own success and future, not despite of but in the very face of incredible adversity? That's the America I know. Having lived in the US for 20 years, and traveling extensively throughout the country during that time before leaving after W's reckless near-destruction of the country I had grown to love, I met a few people like this - haters full of willful ignorance. But they were a thankfully minor exception that proving the rule.
What you are describing in this article is un-American by definition, the very antithesis of American. When did losing become American? They have at least picked the right spokesman, someone whose overweening, self-preening insecurity practically staples the big L to his overlarge forehead.
What you are describing in this article is un-American by definition, the very antithesis of American. When did losing become American? They have at least picked the right spokesman, someone whose overweening, self-preening insecurity practically staples the big L to his overlarge forehead.
8
I suspect a poll of DT's supporters in the demographic shown here would rate his latest debate performance as sub-par, many probably became bored when no juicy insults or shouting matches were forthcoming and switched to something more exciting. Now that The Donald has garnered this group's support, he will start his swing to the Other Donald, the one Mr. Carson referred to as, "actually a thinking individual", to pick up some street cred from people who read newspapers for more than the comics page. He is not worried that he will alienate the former group by appearing too cerebral, because they won't watch anything with difficult concepts, and they will simply stay with what their guts have told them all along - their best bet is to side with someone who looks and talks like they do, and says what they want to hear. The situation on the republican side perfectly illustrates the power of Emerson's famous line, "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, statesmen, philosophers, and divine".
7
This is what happens when we give up on providing quality public education, we ignore a disintegrating infrastructure, and we allow the economy of large geographic swaths to fail.
Trump supporters are a direct result of Reagan and post-Reagan Republican policy and rhetoric. They created this hateful mess, let's hope only they have to pay for it.
Trump supporters are a direct result of Reagan and post-Reagan Republican policy and rhetoric. They created this hateful mess, let's hope only they have to pay for it.
32
The Republican party created the "Trump problem" but perhaps no so much in the way most people believe.
Of course racist dog whistles and distrust of government in general played a part but it appears the biggest driving factors to rise of trumpism may be economic.
The Republican congress's mostly successful efforts to thwart the Obama administration's efforts at job creation may be one of the biggest factors in creating fertile conditions for the growth of Trump's popularity.
If the stimulus package was as big as it should have been or a meaningful infrastructure revitalization program had been passes, would there be as many saffected Trump voters as there are now?
Of course racist dog whistles and distrust of government in general played a part but it appears the biggest driving factors to rise of trumpism may be economic.
The Republican congress's mostly successful efforts to thwart the Obama administration's efforts at job creation may be one of the biggest factors in creating fertile conditions for the growth of Trump's popularity.
If the stimulus package was as big as it should have been or a meaningful infrastructure revitalization program had been passes, would there be as many saffected Trump voters as there are now?
16
People should read It can't happen here by Sinclair Lewis. Written during the Great Depression, the book examines the rise of totalitarianism in the US, using quasi fiction to deal with Huey Long. Democracies and republican governments only work in times of relative stability. They can tolerate wars, clearly, and economic crises to an extent. But when a critical mass of people feel disenfranchised, left out economically, they will seek radical solutions. Mix that with a lack of education, and you have a mess. From that mire will rise a dictator. Trump is like mold: it only grows when the conditions are right. Dry the air out, let some air in, and it will go away. Educate people. Give them a viable voice, and the trumpitis many have caught will disappear.
36
"With Rubio and Hillary we will get more of the same."
Exactly right about Hillary (Rubio's probably out of it, so he doesn't matter).
The irony here is that the party usually associated with newness, innovation, forward thinking -- the Democratic Party -- appears very likely to nominate a candidate who represents just the opposite.
Exactly right about Hillary (Rubio's probably out of it, so he doesn't matter).
The irony here is that the party usually associated with newness, innovation, forward thinking -- the Democratic Party -- appears very likely to nominate a candidate who represents just the opposite.
11
The data is telling. After years of systematic disinvestment in education; making teachers and their unions the scapegoat for a failing system; dumbing down the education process by mindless testing; and a severe anti-intellectual bias on the part of Republicans, this is what you get. Just look at the positive correlation with lack of a high school diploma! No wonder they are angry. They are just angry at the wrong people.
42
Question is why does this demographic vote republican in the first place. They should be voting Democrat, but apparently the democrats have ignored them or don't even know they exist. Seems leaders on both sides are surprised this group is so angry which might be the real problem in Washington and many state capitals
What surprises me about Trumps success is that he seems to have no moral compass, yet he is winning in a party that claims to be the party of traditional values.
What surprises me about Trumps success is that he seems to have no moral compass, yet he is winning in a party that claims to be the party of traditional values.
13
This group is lead to believe that the Democrats are the party of minorities, welfare queens and other less desirable people. After all, some people need to feel superior to others somehow. The problem is that by this stupidity, these republicans have cut off their noses to spite their faces and they are about to feel even angrier if Drumpf tries to lower the minimum wage (since he feels it's too high) and keeps hiring more foreign guest workers to fill his enterprises.
Democrats never ignored these people. It's just that by adopting the republican attitude that education makes one an "elitist", these folks never learned which political party truly represents their values and aspirations. You can't force learning on anyone.
Democrats never ignored these people. It's just that by adopting the republican attitude that education makes one an "elitist", these folks never learned which political party truly represents their values and aspirations. You can't force learning on anyone.
7
Correlation coefficients range from -1.00 to +1.00, where 0 indicates no relationship between variables. The meaning of a given correlation coefficient depends on how it is applied. Correlation coefficients below .35 show only a slight relationship between variables. Such relationships have almost no value in any predictive sense. Correlations between .40 and .60 may have theoretical or practical value, depending on the context. A correlation of at least .50 must be obtained before any crude predictions can be made about individuals. Even then, such predictions will be subject to sizable errors. Only a correlation of .65 or higher will allow individual predictions that are reasonably accurate. Correlations over .85 indicate a close relationship between the correlated variables.
13
thank you
The map of Trumpism will span across America. My observation is In the last 7+ years the pendulum swung to the extreme left and so my estimate is that it is trying to swing back the other way by the end of the primary season it will be apparent that Trump has won in every corner of the American landscape with a dozen or so states to Cruz and maybe a state each to Kasich and Rubio already has a state in his pocket. With groups within the different states he wins having variability.
2
I am not poor or uneducated. Let me say that I will vote for either Bernie or Trump. Why? Because I am tired of our rigged system that only benefits companies and wealthy people. In Virginia our politicians are owned by Dominion Power and others. The average person has no chance, no shot, no voice anymore. This is what Bernie and Trump represent, something different that isn't sold already. With Rubio and Hillary we will get more of the same. It's a chance I realize to vote for the outliers but we need a drastic change - no more of what we have had the last 16 years.
24
Tremendous economic inequality destroys communities and countries, and the United States will be no exception if we stay on the same broken path. This data shows how incredibly important it is to reduce income inequality in this country and to improve our educational system. We have lost the middle class, and we cannot survive as a nation when economic gains are limited to a very small percentage of the population. And true economic growth will never return until we fix this problem. The 1% cannot and will not spend us out of the dismal economic growth that we are seeing. Honestly, both parties have failed miserably on this issue in the past twenty years. Trump is not the source of the anger, he is the messenger.
19
This analysis purports to be based on a wide variety of demographic data. But, out of nowhere, it declares that Trump supporters are "apparently quite angry." There is no support for this statement in the article. And an NBC survey revealed that anger is widespread and diverse. Women and blacks are the angriest with the way they are treated. The poor are angriest with their economic situation. Liberals, in the past year, got angry over police shootings while conservatives got angry over the gridlock in Washington. To define Trump's supporters as angry is too vague, and does not distinguish them from most Americans. In this article, it appears to be nothing more than a stab in the dark.
12
The NYT likes to make these simplistic, prejudiced claims about the supporters of Trump so they don't have to think hard about what is going on here. The reality is that a large number of Trump supporters are educated. The so-called liberals disparaging Trump live and work in places with other people just like themselves: well-off, educated, career-oriented, and non-religious. But they want to force on the rest of America (but not the world) their opinions and lifestyles.
24
I know quite a few Trump supporters... And few of them are well educated.
But, that goes for supporters of the entire Republican "corporations are people" agenda of, anti-science, anti-healthcare, anti-infrastructure, anti-environment, anti-immigrant, anti-women, anti-minority, anti-gay, anti-education, pro-war, pro-assault weapon, and pro-tax break for the extremely wealthy...
Though I will not be supporting him in the election, I find Donald Trump is an actual improvement to establishment Republicans. Mainly because I think he actually is sincere in his hopes to improve America... Whereas, establishment Republicans have proven otherwise for almost fifty years - and they're only getting worse.
But, that goes for supporters of the entire Republican "corporations are people" agenda of, anti-science, anti-healthcare, anti-infrastructure, anti-environment, anti-immigrant, anti-women, anti-minority, anti-gay, anti-education, pro-war, pro-assault weapon, and pro-tax break for the extremely wealthy...
Though I will not be supporting him in the election, I find Donald Trump is an actual improvement to establishment Republicans. Mainly because I think he actually is sincere in his hopes to improve America... Whereas, establishment Republicans have proven otherwise for almost fifty years - and they're only getting worse.
Seems it is true that people's attention spans are too short to discern cause from effect?
American citizens need to pay attention to the very long recent period of deliberate lack of positions for working people in America.
Expose the causes, one of which seems to be waging very expensive Wars.
American citizens need to pay attention to the very long recent period of deliberate lack of positions for working people in America.
Expose the causes, one of which seems to be waging very expensive Wars.
10
Like to see more analysis of Trump support *outside* the most beaten-down sectors of the working class.
Liberal obsession with working class support for Trump betrays a guilty conscience. A conscience that whispers, "It is not the tales of the "forces of the magic marketplace" that our editors require us to adhere with, but decades of deliberate policy running from Reagan through the Bushes, Clintons and Obama that are responsible for the rise of Trumpism".
Liberal obsession with working class support for Trump betrays a guilty conscience. A conscience that whispers, "It is not the tales of the "forces of the magic marketplace" that our editors require us to adhere with, but decades of deliberate policy running from Reagan through the Bushes, Clintons and Obama that are responsible for the rise of Trumpism".
13
The most telling statistic in this piece is that 23% of those between 25 and 54 aren't working. That's our real unemployment rate, a number that has been hidden by Obama and by most main stream economists and pundits. These aren't people who haven't transitioned to the 'new economy,' they are people who have been intentionally left behind.
In this period of rapacious, finance capitalism it is their jobs that went to China, their kids saddled with student loans, their streets that are full of potholes and their prospects for a future that are declining. The fact that black and brown folk are even worse off is no solace for these Trump supporters. After all, they are "Americans" and life, at least for them is supposed to be better. They believe the old guard of the GOP has decided to serve the lords of capital and so they have turned to Trump.
There's no way that Trump's economic plans can change this, at least in the short run. But his demagoguery gives his supporters hope and gives the Wall Street crowd who ushered in these draconian times some pause. If elected he might trim the margins of finance capital and push back against Chinese imports. But, at the end of the day Trump will revert back to his class origins. He may be facing a crisis almost as serious as FDR did, but of course Trump is no economic or social reformer. The ultimate deal he will make is between himself and the bankers, and it won't be cut on behalf of these supporters. A word to the wise.
In this period of rapacious, finance capitalism it is their jobs that went to China, their kids saddled with student loans, their streets that are full of potholes and their prospects for a future that are declining. The fact that black and brown folk are even worse off is no solace for these Trump supporters. After all, they are "Americans" and life, at least for them is supposed to be better. They believe the old guard of the GOP has decided to serve the lords of capital and so they have turned to Trump.
There's no way that Trump's economic plans can change this, at least in the short run. But his demagoguery gives his supporters hope and gives the Wall Street crowd who ushered in these draconian times some pause. If elected he might trim the margins of finance capital and push back against Chinese imports. But, at the end of the day Trump will revert back to his class origins. He may be facing a crisis almost as serious as FDR did, but of course Trump is no economic or social reformer. The ultimate deal he will make is between himself and the bankers, and it won't be cut on behalf of these supporters. A word to the wise.
18
If you notice, the not working category includes disabled (which the census bureau puts at 20% of the population, though certainly many can be working) and homemakers (and there is no consensus figure on how many those number though 3.3% of men identify as stay-at-home fathers). If you add to this the unemployment number is a tad under 5%, then the number of discouraged workers may not be so great as you imply. Of course, there is a chance that the large number of those Trump supporters who are without a high school education may have forgotten about how percentages work, so their anger is fueled by numbers tossed about without much thought. It is easy to justify anger, harder to harness that energy to solve problems.
1
Perhaps if the media and those on the left showed equal concern and compassion for poor rural whites as they do for urban minorities, the situation would improve. They would feel less disenfranchised and angry. We could all better come together to solve problems and build up our nation. For years the media and educated elite has only derided this demographic of our population.
34
This paints a very sad picture for America, not just as it pertains to politics but as it pertains to life for all of us. The real issue is that the people in these communities did not put education as a top priority. Washington State had a similar experience with loggers years ago. Many loggers quit school to log or started logging right after they graduated and planned it to be their life's work. When wholesale logging was stopped and regulated logging and sustainable reforestation was introduced they were misplaced and angry. Fortunately, those who wanted to improve their lives had nearly free re-training available. I hope that is so for the people mentioned here because, as a socially conscious progressive, I feel the pain these people are going through. Unfortunately they have chosen the wrong candidate to "save" them.
28
You assume lack of education is a matter of choice. I have a number of cousins who grew up in a large family, in extreme poverty. Most of them quit school as soon as they could legally do so to get a job so that they could get out of a miserable home life.
A visit to the other side of the tracks would be most enlightening.
A visit to the other side of the tracks would be most enlightening.
15
RM, we definitely need to provide assistance so that ambitious young people can be assisted to stay in school and get whatever higher education they can handle, without accumulating crushing personal debt. That's the Democratic platform.
However, a "miserable home life" in a "large family in extreme poverty" is, at least in good part, "a matter of [someone's] personal choice." Choice, as in birth-control choice.
However, a "miserable home life" in a "large family in extreme poverty" is, at least in good part, "a matter of [someone's] personal choice." Choice, as in birth-control choice.
1
David, the kids had no choice. The parents, in addition to being poor, were also irresponsible.
2
I'm college educated and I want Trump elected because I believe in a Renaissance. I know Trump is the worst thing for the country from a diplomatic and social perspective, and I do hope he undermines everything we are, so that we may be reduced to our core and re-awaken. We'll emerge as a new nation with a better understanding of our purpose. That's Trump's advantage.
9
Four years of a Trump presidency and total Republican control of the federal government might well prevent any possible Renaissance, ever.
7
It's a thought that's going around.
Donald Trump is going To Make America Great Again with whites with no high school diploma, self-proclaimed “Americans” with no access to history or ancestry books, a softness for George Wallace's segregationist politics, and the always entrepreneurial and innovative mobile home crowd.
Public Policy Polling poll last month survey of 897 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters showed 70% of Mr. Trump’s voters wish the Confederate battle flag were still flying on their statehouse grounds. (It was removed last summer after the white supremacist shooting at a black church in Charleston.)
The poll also showed 38% of Trump voters wish the South had won the Civil War.
Nationally, YouGov polling data showed that nearly 20% of Mr. Trump’s voters disagreed with Abraham Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation, which freed slaves in the Southern states during the Civil War.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/25/upshot/measuring-donald-trumps-support...
The only thing you could make great again with these people is a cross-burning and lynching festival followed by the raising of the Stars and Bars Confederate Flag over their new capitol in an Appalachian mountaintop removal coal town that has not only been strip-mined of its physical landscape and environmental regulations, but also of all its citizens' gray matter.
Donald Trump has assembled America's vast bottom of the brain barrel to Make America Great Again.
A perfectly stupid plan.
Public Policy Polling poll last month survey of 897 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters showed 70% of Mr. Trump’s voters wish the Confederate battle flag were still flying on their statehouse grounds. (It was removed last summer after the white supremacist shooting at a black church in Charleston.)
The poll also showed 38% of Trump voters wish the South had won the Civil War.
Nationally, YouGov polling data showed that nearly 20% of Mr. Trump’s voters disagreed with Abraham Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation, which freed slaves in the Southern states during the Civil War.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/25/upshot/measuring-donald-trumps-support...
The only thing you could make great again with these people is a cross-burning and lynching festival followed by the raising of the Stars and Bars Confederate Flag over their new capitol in an Appalachian mountaintop removal coal town that has not only been strip-mined of its physical landscape and environmental regulations, but also of all its citizens' gray matter.
Donald Trump has assembled America's vast bottom of the brain barrel to Make America Great Again.
A perfectly stupid plan.
222
I believe that the superiority expressed here, and the open degradation of the people under discussion, is part of what is causing the problem. At least Trump pretends to speak for them, though he speaks falsely. To address these issues, to re-enfranchise these fellow citizens--with whom we might strongly disagree--requires something different from the contempt expressed here or the manipulative exploitation of a Trump.
21
I also agree with Nathan that the degrading blanket statements used to describe an entire demographic of people in the above statement creates candidates like Trump. And much division. I find it hard t believe the same sentiments would be used to describe other backgrounds of people struggling with poverty, crime and lack of education.
15
I also agree with Nathan that the degrading blanket statements used to describe an entire demographic of people in the above comment creates candidates like Trump. And much division. I find it hard t believe the same sentiments would be used to describe other backgrounds of people struggling with poverty, crime and lack of education.
4
It's interesting to see whites with limited education and economic prospects personally identify with a wealthy con man (see Trump University). Seemingly they would have nothing in common. There is anger. But I can't for the life of me see what Trump is angry about. Is it an act? Is he just naturally belligerent? Is there some psychological problem? Trump's primary supporters think he is one thing. I wonder how they will respond when he turns out to be what he is, an ordinary, somewhat pathetic, politician.
26
The loss of manufacturing jobs in the US that is driving current political instability is not some natural process, but the consequence, in large part, of the diversion of scientific and engineering resources from the civilian economy into what Columbia University professor Seymour Melman called 'Pentagon Capitalism', a US version of the Soviet Gosplan. For fifty years the 'Red Queen' of the US economy was denied resources needed to keep up with the demands of a market economy. Deindustrialization was the consequence. See Chapter 7 of
http://www.amazon.com/Ecosystem-Approach-Economic-Stabilization-Neoliber...
for details. The US economy will continue its descent into chaos as a consequence of continuing military expenditures. More of us will then be consumed by the socioeconomic black hole now driving Trumpism. The chickens are coming home to roost, and the future is bleak indeed, absent a robust reindustrialization policy that neither party seems ready to pursue.
http://www.amazon.com/Ecosystem-Approach-Economic-Stabilization-Neoliber...
for details. The US economy will continue its descent into chaos as a consequence of continuing military expenditures. More of us will then be consumed by the socioeconomic black hole now driving Trumpism. The chickens are coming home to roost, and the future is bleak indeed, absent a robust reindustrialization policy that neither party seems ready to pursue.
15
Two thumbs up on recognition that Trumpism is the inevitable political consequence of *conscious policy decisions*, and not Reagan-Krugman's "magic marketplace", made by the political and economic rulers of the USA across decades since the late 1970's.
Thanks also for the book reference!
Thanks also for the book reference!
7
Trump's demagoguery has appealed to the types cited here and in particular, his position on trade and immigration have won him additional support among others so that he has 40% of the Republican voters on his side. They will stay with him, no matter what. But, it is clear, many Republicans will never vote for Trump, and he can't win the general election without them. As the nominee, he will soften his rhetoric and revise his policy positions to bring back disenfranchised Republicans. It's already started.
7
Great article, but I see a lot of "blaming the victim" in some of the comments. The Government did not do a lot to alleviate the pain of the displaced when large international trade deals were struck. NAFTA moved a lot of manufacturing to the maquilladora industry where U.S. factories moved to just south of the U.S. Mexico border. This can be multiplied across other low wage countries. Some benefit, usually the owners. Others, mostly workers, lose. The workers in these foreign countries may have a job and are able to put food on the table but they are hardly thriving.
Just writing it off to globalization is a cop out, more can be done. The problems are complex and the solutions are also complex. But it is the responsibility of Government to minimize the impact and ease the transition to other well paying jobs and to ensure that trade agreements do not allowing dumping of goods which then causes more displacement.
Just writing it off to globalization is a cop out, more can be done. The problems are complex and the solutions are also complex. But it is the responsibility of Government to minimize the impact and ease the transition to other well paying jobs and to ensure that trade agreements do not allowing dumping of goods which then causes more displacement.
22
I've got to quibble with one part of your analysis. The fact of the matter is that for almost of the human race (up to and including the present day), the ability to put food on the table is the very definition of "thriving".
It's something Americans have forgotten and need to remember, if they are to have any real understanding why so many manufacturing jobs have moved overseas. It also makes it very clear that there was nothing very much which any government could have done to prevent it, and nothing much which any government can or could do in order to bring them back.
The sooner this fundamental truth is acknowledged, the better it will be for everyone.
It's something Americans have forgotten and need to remember, if they are to have any real understanding why so many manufacturing jobs have moved overseas. It also makes it very clear that there was nothing very much which any government could have done to prevent it, and nothing much which any government can or could do in order to bring them back.
The sooner this fundamental truth is acknowledged, the better it will be for everyone.
4
Hmmmmm... "t also makes it very clear that there was nothing very much which any government could have done to prevent it" Tariffs were reduced to the point where large international corporations could move (maybe even encouraged by the government to do so) their manufacturing "offshore" produce a product there, ship it back to the U.S. market, and still make more of a profit than producing the same product here. This is not trade like buying shoes from Italy, wine from France, or cheese from Ireland. It's not even like Japan in the 60's where the developed their own industries to compete. It was done intentionally to drive down costs (labor) for companies. Who profited? Investors, Large corporations, Wealthy people. They all make significant campaign donations to politicians. Coincidence?
12
Agreed. Tom Frank just wrote about it in the Guardian, too: http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/07/donald-trump-why-am...
It would be interesting to see the results of a similar study of Sanders supporters. Both Trump and Sanders are offering their constituencies simple answers to complex economic questions. They both appeal to economic outsiders. They both appeal mainly to a white electorate who have been victimized by globalization and the growth of corporatism and laissez-faire government policies. In Sanders's case, the demons are the economic elites, the 1%, the "billionaires", the corporations and international trade; in Trump's case they are immigrants, Muslims, and international trade, especially with China. Trump promises that if he is elected America will be great again. Sanders promises that if he is elected, the billionaires will pay for free health care, free college and to expand the social safety net and the economy will grow by 4+% a year. The big difference between Trump and Sanders is that Trump appeals to fear and xenophobia and Sanders appeals to his supporters' idealism and sense of economic injustice. However, they are both making promises to disenfranchised people that they won't be able to keep.
29
Forgot to point out *why* Trump or Sanders would not be able to keep their promises. In Sanders case at least, it would not be for lack of sincerity (Trump, OTOH, who knows? :-) It is because they would have only the Presidency, while the political and economic elite responsible for the decades of policy since the 1970's that have created the present sad state of affairs, will still control all other levers of power and do everything in their power to sabotage any attempt to make good on promises.
7
The Upshot should perform the same analysis of Democratic Party voters for Hillary and Bernie—it would be equally enlightening.
I doubt they'd ever allow the phrase "social dysfunctions" to be used in print when describing blacks in the former Confederacy, who propelled Clinton to her primary victories. The media bias is blatant!
When poor whites vote for a candidate who is disliked by mouthpieces of the "creative class," they're described as angry, bitter, and "losers."
When minority demographics (women, blacks) vote en masse for a liberal, however, it never has such negative connotations.
One could play a drinking game with these comments. The majority will be from armchair Freudians lecturing on the paradox of unwashed Republican supporters (allegedly) voting against their interests. Sprinkled in will be a reference to Adorno and authoritarianism for good measure.
The unwillingness of the liberal class to understand working-class white voters is a direct result of their constant condescending tone, cheap shots, and favoritism of minority victim groups.
No, they don't shop at Whole Foods or read The New Times. But rather than demeaning them, maybe you could make an honest attempt to understand the economy and life circumstances they inhabit?
Illegal immigration, misguided social engineering, welfare programs, and bad trade agreements have a far different impact on Americans who are outside of the urban costal bloc of economic and cultural power.
I doubt they'd ever allow the phrase "social dysfunctions" to be used in print when describing blacks in the former Confederacy, who propelled Clinton to her primary victories. The media bias is blatant!
When poor whites vote for a candidate who is disliked by mouthpieces of the "creative class," they're described as angry, bitter, and "losers."
When minority demographics (women, blacks) vote en masse for a liberal, however, it never has such negative connotations.
One could play a drinking game with these comments. The majority will be from armchair Freudians lecturing on the paradox of unwashed Republican supporters (allegedly) voting against their interests. Sprinkled in will be a reference to Adorno and authoritarianism for good measure.
The unwillingness of the liberal class to understand working-class white voters is a direct result of their constant condescending tone, cheap shots, and favoritism of minority victim groups.
No, they don't shop at Whole Foods or read The New Times. But rather than demeaning them, maybe you could make an honest attempt to understand the economy and life circumstances they inhabit?
Illegal immigration, misguided social engineering, welfare programs, and bad trade agreements have a far different impact on Americans who are outside of the urban costal bloc of economic and cultural power.
33
Interesting. You mention those who are "angry", "bitter", or "losers" (the latter being a tag which Mr. Trump seems to believe applies primarily to his opponents), but you fail to mention the main indicator for a Trump supporter, which is "poorly educated".
You also fail to acknowledge the very high correlation between (1) the lack of a high school diploma and (2) the bleak economic prospects of so many of Mr. Trump's supporters. But does it really take an "armchair Freudian" to make the so-very-obvious connection between those two factors.
You speak of "blaming the victim", but in this day and age it is difficult to attribute the lack of a high school education or its' equivalent to anyone but the person who failed to obtain one in the conventional fashion, or who is disinclined to pursue one through the many other means available to older students.
You also fail to acknowledge the very high correlation between (1) the lack of a high school diploma and (2) the bleak economic prospects of so many of Mr. Trump's supporters. But does it really take an "armchair Freudian" to make the so-very-obvious connection between those two factors.
You speak of "blaming the victim", but in this day and age it is difficult to attribute the lack of a high school education or its' equivalent to anyone but the person who failed to obtain one in the conventional fashion, or who is disinclined to pursue one through the many other means available to older students.
I live in the kind of place described in this article. We're here now because my father-in-law is almost ninety. The people here are angry but why are they angry? Because they never tried to improve their lives in any way but they want to blame their lousy lives on everybody else. There is a major state college 28 miles away and a smaller state college 30 miles away and a vocational school 25 miles away but nobody here goes to them because they might have to think and they might have to work harder than they want and because they don't trust educated people. They blame their lousy lives on Obama and on environmentalists. They never leave this town. My husband tried to reconnect with some of his childhood friends. He said he thought they'd have something in common, but he found them to be biased, bigoted, still uneducated, alcoholic, angry, and physically like much older men. They are worn out but not from hard work. They are worn out from alcohol and meth. So many of the people here want to blame everybody else, but they never did anything to make their lives better.
299
This comment demonstrates the duplicity in the way the left treats poor minorities and poor whites.
Poor minorities are victims of systematic discrimination, whereas poor whites are simply close-minded. One group are victims, one group are at fault for not bettering themselves. This duplicity breeds discontent, and you are seeing its results play out in real time.
Poor minorities are victims of systematic discrimination, whereas poor whites are simply close-minded. One group are victims, one group are at fault for not bettering themselves. This duplicity breeds discontent, and you are seeing its results play out in real time.
10
@Linda
I empathize with you and give you credit for staying in place in order to help your family out.
Having grown up and left a place similar to where you are at now, it rings so true. But, I also found that many of those you are referencing are often fully aware of their situation and many are resigned, if not accepting, of their plight, to use a loaded term. Many stay in rural areas or outside the mainstream because its where their family is, its what their use to and it often the course of most comfort.
The old aphorism still rings true - live and let live.
I empathize with you and give you credit for staying in place in order to help your family out.
Having grown up and left a place similar to where you are at now, it rings so true. But, I also found that many of those you are referencing are often fully aware of their situation and many are resigned, if not accepting, of their plight, to use a loaded term. Many stay in rural areas or outside the mainstream because its where their family is, its what their use to and it often the course of most comfort.
The old aphorism still rings true - live and let live.
Thank you for your comment. I complete understand the narrow mindset you describe and why the population around you likes Trump.
So, you might remind them that they'd better be careful for what they wish for. If Trump is elected (over my dead body), they'll discover his truest interests lie not with poor, but the rich.
So, you might remind them that they'd better be careful for what they wish for. If Trump is elected (over my dead body), they'll discover his truest interests lie not with poor, but the rich.
I'm not particularly happy with dividing Americans along ethnic lines, so I often identify myself as just plain "American." I have an Italian surname, but only one of my grandparents had that name. The other names were Dutch, French and English, so what am I, really? Isn't counting only the males in your genealogy an example of sexism? At some point we become so mixed up that American is all we can say we are.
And despite considering myself an "American," I consider Trump bigoted, sexist, and authoritarian. Don't get me started.
And despite considering myself an "American," I consider Trump bigoted, sexist, and authoritarian. Don't get me started.
35
So, Trump's supporters are feeling the burn.
To bad they don't wise up and feel the Bern.
To bad they don't wise up and feel the Bern.
12
The point is: they do not feel the Bern. The notion that a populist Sanders could beat a populist Trump in November is based on the false assumption that Sanders is offering something these demographics respond to. Some do, but in smaller numbers.
Instead of sneering at people who don't "wise up," Sanders and his supporters had better find ways to reach out to disaffected voters outside of the youth vote and the liberal white vote. Otherwise Trump will eat Sanders for lunch.
Instead of sneering at people who don't "wise up," Sanders and his supporters had better find ways to reach out to disaffected voters outside of the youth vote and the liberal white vote. Otherwise Trump will eat Sanders for lunch.
17
There is a big difference between "offering something these demographic respond to" and offering to actually represent their interests in government. The former is the race-baiting and jingoistic pandering of Trump which has been the red herring this demographic has chased for decades. What Bernie is offering is to actually address the needs of the working poor in this country. Sadly, "this demographic consistently fails to understand their own interests and, instead, chose to chase the red herring offered by Republicans every two years.
8
Both Trump and Sanders supporters say that "we need to take our country back."
When Trump supporters say it, they mean take it back from illegal Mexicans and liberals.
When Sanders supporters say it, they mean take it back from Wall St., the military industrial complex, and the neocons.
Supposedly when a supporter told Adlai Stevenson that Stevenson had the support of all thinking voters, Stevenson replied, “I need more than that, I need a majority.”
I think that is Bernie Sanders’ problem.
(And our country's problem.)
When Trump supporters say it, they mean take it back from illegal Mexicans and liberals.
When Sanders supporters say it, they mean take it back from Wall St., the military industrial complex, and the neocons.
Supposedly when a supporter told Adlai Stevenson that Stevenson had the support of all thinking voters, Stevenson replied, “I need more than that, I need a majority.”
I think that is Bernie Sanders’ problem.
(And our country's problem.)
As a lifetime resident of a now deep red state, this sounds familiar. For most of my lifetime here in TN (I'm approaching 60) the Democrats ran the state, with an occasional "moderate" Republican in the mix (a species no longer recognizable). We now have a Republican super-majority in our state legislature the agenda is pretty simple: cut social services/government, expand guns, provide "religious liberty", make sure "diversity" of any sort is seen as an affront to voters, and so forth. It's the same playbook seen at the national level. Most voters in this state eat it up, as witnessed by our elected officials, even if it's ultimately against their interests. Most of these strategies appeal emotionally if your job at the coal mine or textile factory is gone, but it's not bringing it back. Likewise, it works against many corporate interests who might want to be here and provide jobs (witness the corporate push back in Indiana, Georgia, etc). While I don't think either the government or corporate interests will solve all our problems, we have a lot of counterweight now to both with these continuing political games that maximize "personal freedoms" of some sort. Point being that owning a gun, keeping LGBT persons out of your life/space, etc, won't put a morsel of food on your table or a dollar in your pocket. In fact, these laws are likely going to lessen your chances in a diverse world. "What's The Matter With Kansas" is now "What's the Matter with (the) US?".
143
And Kansas, now entering its second term of Governor Brownback, is doing worse than ever with tax cuts, budget deficits, and cuts to education.
How he got reelected is amazing.
How he got reelected is amazing.
One very important event that both the Trump phenomenon and this analysis reveal is that the disaffected, marginally employed and minimally educated have been crowded into voting Republican year after year when, at base, that party does not represent their interests. This is truly the shattering of the Republican party. Without the support of those flocking to Trump, the Republicans would be losing almost everywhere they have been winning.
Can their party get them back after this year? Can it get them back if Trump doesn't get the nomination? What binding myth/lie can be invented to cover over the realization dawning on people that almost nothing they have thought they were voting for in the past has been realized? Having no other real choice in their minds, they followed the leaders. No more.
The Republican party puts on a show for these voters, slathers on some identifying, signifying words and gestures to right wing Christians, creates the belief that anyone who believes in government is an evil force and, presto!, goes off and builds benefits and programs for the very rich, all the while telling those at the bottom that they, someday, will benefit. How long can this continue? Right now, the Republican voters are saying not one second longer.
Can their party get them back after this year? Can it get them back if Trump doesn't get the nomination? What binding myth/lie can be invented to cover over the realization dawning on people that almost nothing they have thought they were voting for in the past has been realized? Having no other real choice in their minds, they followed the leaders. No more.
The Republican party puts on a show for these voters, slathers on some identifying, signifying words and gestures to right wing Christians, creates the belief that anyone who believes in government is an evil force and, presto!, goes off and builds benefits and programs for the very rich, all the while telling those at the bottom that they, someday, will benefit. How long can this continue? Right now, the Republican voters are saying not one second longer.
34
I agree completely.
But they go for Trump instead of Sanders who will really help them.
Truly a difficult cycle to break.
But they go for Trump instead of Sanders who will really help them.
Truly a difficult cycle to break.
So those who describe their ethnic identity as 'American' have a strong positive correlation, but W.A.S.P identified people have a negative correlation? I get it, people who self identify as W.A.S.P. are probably wealthier establishment favoring whites, but it somehow needs to be clarified how many of self-identified ethnic 'Americans' are in fact of W.A.S.P background, but simply do not use that term to describe themselves. I suspect the largest share Trump supporters are in fact of W.A.S.P. ancestry, simply because they are the largest share of the white population in this country. Am I stating the obvious here?
8
"Am I stating the obvious here?"
Yep, but we all do.
Technically, W.A.S.P. applies to many Trump supporters (and to many who oppose him), but it's long been considered to mean something narrower than that.
Yep, but we all do.
Technically, W.A.S.P. applies to many Trump supporters (and to many who oppose him), but it's long been considered to mean something narrower than that.
2
Trumps demographic matches Fox News demographic. They both deal with a growing segment of the American population that is angry, trapped in valueless jobs and economically desperate. American life is not working out for them.
32
Demagogue, intellectual featherweight, bully, simpleton: why would Trump's characteristics not appeal to like-minded Americans. In one respect Trump is the net result of decades of dumbing-down public education and using each electoral cycle to incite bigotry, xenophobia and racism as excuses for economic and social failure. It's becoming clear that America has failed in creating an equitable, intelligent country and Trump is exhibit A.
51
I know people in the demographic described here who have a lot more common sense than the people who trash them. Elitists are often unbearable. I went to Harvard, so i have a lot of first-hand knowledge.
"The old boss is the same as the new boss" and, yes,they will be "fooled again." Trump has no more of a chance of delivering to this demographic than the former Republican establishment did. They want to believe and they think they have found Santa. Same song, different singer, and when they awaken, the same results. This time the expectations are louder and predictably, regardless of who wins the election, the resultant crash will be more consequential.
24
George Wallace country 50 years ago is Trump country today. Wallace was a segregationist -- we're told that. But he had a lot of union support. We're not told that. The impression left is that racists support Trump. But, to the extent area demographics mean anything 50 years later, which is suspect at best, Wallace's support was as much Democrat and pro-union as it was racist. The segregationists were the bad guys, of course. But there hasn't been any segregation in 50 years.
4
Yes, there is considerable evidence that what is driving many Trump supporters is not race at all, but rather economic conditions and marginalization. But his opponents don't want to come to terms with that: it's so much easier to simply demonize and dismiss his supporters as "white trash" or "racist" or "uneducated rubes" without any recognition or acknowledgement that they have legitimate grievances. I am not a Trump supporter myself, but it does the left no good to simply "otherize" the supporters of Trump as dirty and uneducated rubes who deserve only our contempt. I see this too much amongst my liberal and progressive friends.
18
The question then becomes, "Why are they uneducated?" I don't know if it was their own choice, infrastructure issues, or a combination of the two, but unless that issue is addressed there is nothing very much which Mr. Trump (or anyone else) can do to help them of of their unfortunate situation.
2
Im not very fond of the tone this article speaks of "Trumpists" with, or the way it talks of people who describe themselves as "American". Whenever a form asks for my race, I write in "American". Because Race should not matter and to me, it does not matter.
The country has been in a long coming decline ever since we started outsourcing our jobs. Manufacturing, the bread and butter of any modern economy, was the first, and the hardest felt, but the problem is, it isnt just those jobs. thanks to H1 visas, now even the College Educated tech jobs are being outsourced. if China and mexico are stealing our manufacturing, India is stealing our tech jobs. With places like Disney forcing people to train their replacements, who then go back to india and do the same job there at a foreign branch or contracted company.
And even Service jobs are slowly becoming automated. Bank tellers are safe because money transactions are very nuanced, but they are increasingly obsolete when you can just take a photo of your check now, and, for years- no longer need them to draw money. it's only a matter of time before they are replaced. Fast food workers. McDonalds is increasing it's automation in response to raising their wage to 15. And all over the country, stores are hiring less cashiers and installing more self checkout machines.
What will be left? So it's obvious that people vote for the Protectionist that promises to bring back the jobs
The country has been in a long coming decline ever since we started outsourcing our jobs. Manufacturing, the bread and butter of any modern economy, was the first, and the hardest felt, but the problem is, it isnt just those jobs. thanks to H1 visas, now even the College Educated tech jobs are being outsourced. if China and mexico are stealing our manufacturing, India is stealing our tech jobs. With places like Disney forcing people to train their replacements, who then go back to india and do the same job there at a foreign branch or contracted company.
And even Service jobs are slowly becoming automated. Bank tellers are safe because money transactions are very nuanced, but they are increasingly obsolete when you can just take a photo of your check now, and, for years- no longer need them to draw money. it's only a matter of time before they are replaced. Fast food workers. McDonalds is increasing it's automation in response to raising their wage to 15. And all over the country, stores are hiring less cashiers and installing more self checkout machines.
What will be left? So it's obvious that people vote for the Protectionist that promises to bring back the jobs
22
This article makes me very sad. I am a teacher by profession and know first-hand the value of enlightenment. I teach, but I also learn and the most important things I have learned is that nothing stays the same and the good old days were never as good as people remember they were. These marginalized rabid supporters of Trump are desperate and are turning to a demagogue reality TV star to save them, when, in fact, he has often not been able to save himself. I wanted to believe that someone from here in the northeast, where Trump was born and raised, would have been familiar with the value of a good education and perhaps, even touted that as a reason for some of his success. But no, instead, as many before him, he has devolved into a power-hungry monster who is capitalizing on the weakness and ignorance of those who can't tell a charlatan when they see one. Shame on Trump for exploiting these people. Shame us for turning its back on these vulnerable individuals. Shame on us for our apathy and allowing mid-term elections to be ignored, gerry-mandering to continue, voting rights to be eviscerated and one party successfully convincing the American public that a two-term president only gets to govern for seven years. Trump and his haters were created in a laboratory of xenophobia and hate, promoted by a network that is our version of Pravda. "The best lack all conviction, while the worst/Are full of passionate intensity," WB Yeats warned. He was and is still right.
113
This is all interesting, but in Trump, I see a Republican Party of the last twenty years who radiated in the glow of "their" media, enjoying the denigration of all unifying political ideas, all people of color and women, and any governance by "others." It's been hateful rhetoric for years, and continues in our Republican Congress today. Trump is the Republican amplifier candidate. And surprise, surprise; he's running with the ball. It's been easy stuff. But, not so easy, for desperately seeking citizens; white, young, old or otherwise who have seen hate work very well, and need a turn. The genie is out of the bottle. Now what?
14
I wonder how many of these rowdy Trump rally attendees are actually registered voters. How many actually voted in the 2012 election? By the appearance of the audience I believe many have never participated before and do so now out of curiosity and the chance to blow off steam. How this will translate into actual votes in the election remains to be seen should Trump be the candidate. If he can prompt new voter registration and a big get out the vote plan, he will be the next President. If the calmer heads in the party can manage a brokered convention and coalesce behind another candidate, how many of these people will not vote at all?
5
I'd love to see some numbers relating this group to the incidence of "home schooling." Frightening to think how many have been taught by parents of the same tendencies and how many are passing those along to the next generation.
It is also interesting to note how confused many of the comments about method are here. A few get the numbers but more are clearly partyly but not sufficiently acquainted and their comments reveal that.
It is also interesting to note how confused many of the comments about method are here. A few get the numbers but more are clearly partyly but not sufficiently acquainted and their comments reveal that.
8
If Trump gets enough delegates to win on the first ballot at the Republican convention, it's over. But if he doesn't, the Republicans should give serious thought to deep-sixing him. It might take me as long as three seconds to make that decision. I'd pick Kasich, and when Trump supporters complain, I'd tell them "Get over it." And they will -- especially when they recognize their choice is between Kasich or Hillary.
Surprisingly, the Republican Party rules give the Party less maneuvering room than that Democratic Party rules. Hillary's "super delegates" are just the modern version of the "smoke filled room" in which Presidential candidates were picked decades ago. The Republican Party has equivalents to "super delegates," but apparently far fewer. Though I think the Republicans should engineer the very same "end run" that Hillary has planned (if necessary), it appears they'll have a harder time pulling that off than she will.
Surprisingly, the Republican Party rules give the Party less maneuvering room than that Democratic Party rules. Hillary's "super delegates" are just the modern version of the "smoke filled room" in which Presidential candidates were picked decades ago. The Republican Party has equivalents to "super delegates," but apparently far fewer. Though I think the Republicans should engineer the very same "end run" that Hillary has planned (if necessary), it appears they'll have a harder time pulling that off than she will.
4
Sounds like the real correlation is with people who have nothing better to do that sit around and watch reality TV.
17
Good point! One of the statistics should be hours spent watching reality TV.
An article like this side steps the more important fact: Trump is strong with all groups. He beats his rivals with women, hispanics, blacks and is tied or ahead with evangelicals. His beats them with high income and low and middle. Well educated and poorly educated.
The article misleads by focus on "strongest". Trump has been 50% ahead of his rivals for 9 months, in all, or nearly all, demographic groups.
The article misleads by focus on "strongest". Trump has been 50% ahead of his rivals for 9 months, in all, or nearly all, demographic groups.
10
J,
I have to agree. I strongly dislike Trump, and would jettison him at the convention if possible. But that doesn't justify his critics in misstating the facts about his support. As you point out, it's much broader and deeper than his critics concede.
I have to agree. I strongly dislike Trump, and would jettison him at the convention if possible. But that doesn't justify his critics in misstating the facts about his support. As you point out, it's much broader and deeper than his critics concede.
I make it a point when asked questions about nationality to answer "American" and for race "Human".
A pox upon those who separate Americans into factions and sub groups.
I despise them.
A pox upon those who separate Americans into factions and sub groups.
I despise them.
12
I've long tended to answer such questions similarly – or not to answer them at all if the choices you mention aren't available.
Frankly, after reading a summary of an uncle's family-tree tracing, I'm far from sure what the correct answers would be, even if I were inclined to answer such questions.
Frankly, after reading a summary of an uncle's family-tree tracing, I'm far from sure what the correct answers would be, even if I were inclined to answer such questions.
5
It would be interesting to have a multiple regression of the factors identified here.
For people who know nothing of statistics, that means fitting a line on a graph based upon integrating all or many of the strongest correlations identified here.
Please, Times, add in that extra statistical test. Or have someone do that for you.
For people who know nothing of statistics, that means fitting a line on a graph based upon integrating all or many of the strongest correlations identified here.
Please, Times, add in that extra statistical test. Or have someone do that for you.
14
Trump's supporters should ask themselves this question: in Trump's career name one or two things that Trump has done to help people in the economic class or situation outlined in this article?
I'm seems he likes to help and hang around people on the other, wealthiest part of the spectrum. No free golf or stays at Trump's resorts. Are you useless? You're fired!
I'm seems he likes to help and hang around people on the other, wealthiest part of the spectrum. No free golf or stays at Trump's resorts. Are you useless? You're fired!
13
As a worker in technology, I can guarantee you that is no safe port in the harbor. Tech jobs have been sent to India faster than manufacturing jobs to China. So American workers have lost everything so you see the rise of Trump and Sanders.
22
Great analysis. Will NYT do the same for Sanders?
I wonder if there is overlap between Trump and Sanders territories.
I wonder if there is overlap between Trump and Sanders territories.
10
I am sure that there are overlaps but probably minimal. One important statistics that is missing in this article is the correlation between Trump supporters with age; the majority of Trump supporters are middle age and older. In contrast, Sanders supports are mostly young. This is a very important difference. On one side, Trump supporters looks backward with anger and isolationism; one the other side, Sanders supports looks forward with hope and activism.
5
I would love to hear a Democrat plainly state what we already know is true: Trump support consists largely of ignorant white people living in culturally and economically stagnant areas of the country. They are angry because the country is changing around them and in many ways they've been left behind. The Democratic Party cannot make its case to those people because they are not receptive to facts and logic. They prefer demagogues who flatter their biases and encourage their fears which, of course, Trump and the GOP are happy to do. Patriotic Americans can only hope things will be set right again in the general election, and the GOP will be resoundingly vanquished.
21
The Wall Street Journal ran pretty much the same story after the South Carolina primary. Trump essentially took all the poorest counties in the State. It's no secret that a great number of poor, undereducated whites are suffering and have been left behind, or left out, or at least feel that way. Suicide among these white men grows faster than among any other group. Addiction is increasing. Poverty persists. And, guess what? Not a lot of people care--or even know how to. They're too busy with other Crusades. And these "Americans" don't fit our picture of folks who need our help.
Their angry turn to Trump is no mystery. The ways we educate people today to think today, the categories we use in our vanguard universities, do not involve "Americans" or "human beings" or "all people" or anything else inclusive, but identity categories of race, gender, sexuality, and so on--purportedly "class," but class is rarely a true category of analysis. "Inequality" is the preferred concept. These are all activist categories with associated social movements. These angry Trump voters don't belong anywhere. At least, not in any good sense. The undertone--or overtone--of this article is that these obsolete "Americans" are more to be pitied and despised and are in need of serious schooling. Trump expresses their anger, and he is the only movement available to them.
Their angry turn to Trump is no mystery. The ways we educate people today to think today, the categories we use in our vanguard universities, do not involve "Americans" or "human beings" or "all people" or anything else inclusive, but identity categories of race, gender, sexuality, and so on--purportedly "class," but class is rarely a true category of analysis. "Inequality" is the preferred concept. These are all activist categories with associated social movements. These angry Trump voters don't belong anywhere. At least, not in any good sense. The undertone--or overtone--of this article is that these obsolete "Americans" are more to be pitied and despised and are in need of serious schooling. Trump expresses their anger, and he is the only movement available to them.
17
As candidate Obama infamously said in '08, the rural poor have retreated to their God and their guns.
We can now add Trump to that list.
Who can blame them?
We can now add Trump to that list.
Who can blame them?
8
American here. Ancestors from all over west Europe, some African and Native American. But #nevertrump.
4
Another way you can look at this data is by looking at the surrounding conditions and thus the life experiences of these strong white Trump areas. These areas have very high populations of African Americans. The areas Cruz is beating Trump in are very low in African American population. I would like a study in why this seems to be happening.
2
Seriously. It doesn't take a "study." It's called rascism and bigotry
I've no idea who I'll ultimately vote for but it is very interesting how this piece tries to portray Trump's support while sweeping past an acknowledgment there are educated supporters as well. I'm hearing, with some surprise, quite a lot of Trump support coming from educated, successful professionals and business people too. How about a similar correlation report for Clinton ? Why does it seem the Times is working hard to posit Trump is getting uneducated whites and Clinton is getting the black vote (with no reference to the education level of those voters)? Too much is being made of race in this primary season. Too much broad brushing making it seem Republican equals white and Democrat black. Too much Trump is a racist (Muslim isn't a race and neither is there a race of illegal immigrants). Too much telling the public which herd they are part of.
10
Your comment surprised me. Not that there aren't any but I haven't heard of any known "educated, successful professionals and business people," who support Trump. The two sets are simply incongruous.
I think we should keep in mind, Charlie, what this analysis is: it is a correlation study, not an attempt to overlook important factors. It is something like saying people with brown hair are likely to buy a raincoat on a day when it is not raining. Is there a correlation? If so, how high is it? If you find one, then you can look for the cause.
These kinds of statistical, analytical efforts are helpful, but they also, by necessity, distort. They have to be used with care and not applied too widely.
It is possible to be "highly educated" and forcefully ignorant. I can't imagine why anyone with both education and experience using their brain would support Trump, other than just a general protest against, you know, everything.
These kinds of statistical, analytical efforts are helpful, but they also, by necessity, distort. They have to be used with care and not applied too widely.
It is possible to be "highly educated" and forcefully ignorant. I can't imagine why anyone with both education and experience using their brain would support Trump, other than just a general protest against, you know, everything.
1
I know this wouldn't be found in Census data, but how does "Trump country" match up with the public health phenomenon of addiction: heroin, prescription drugs , etc?
5
Trump supporters are exactly the people that Trump says he hates - losers. They are people for whom the system has not worked and who do not see a way out. For them, it would seem, being "American" is symbolic of somehow not being a failure. This is the root reason why Trumpism is so much like Nazism and Fascism. This is sociologically and psychologically interesting but in the real world it is just dangerous.
24
I was surprised to see the negative correlation with WASPness, especially given the whole “American” thing. It makes me want to know more about the ethnic origins of the Trumpistas.
2
I disagree with many of the previous comments.
The statistics arrayed here don't tell us anything about the direction of causality, if any. My guess is that not finishing high school, staying in the depressed area where you were born and raised, and being either unemployed or working in a low-skilled job are to a great extent RESULTS of low IQ, low people-smarts, low ambition -- in short, low abilities. So I'm guessing that a person is a Trump fan not because s/he didn't finish high school, but that both being a Trump fan and not finishing high school are results of low intellectual capacity, low people smarts, and low initiative. These personal characteristics are what has caused the resentment that finds an outlet in preferring a loud-mouthed buffoon to a polished valedictorian from Wellesley or even a Princeton-Harvard Law graduate.
BTW this doesn't mean that I don't favor doing everything and anything that might be cost-effective in helping all our kids avoid being stuck in such a situation. I'm just trying to describe a situation; doesn't mean I like it.
The statistics arrayed here don't tell us anything about the direction of causality, if any. My guess is that not finishing high school, staying in the depressed area where you were born and raised, and being either unemployed or working in a low-skilled job are to a great extent RESULTS of low IQ, low people-smarts, low ambition -- in short, low abilities. So I'm guessing that a person is a Trump fan not because s/he didn't finish high school, but that both being a Trump fan and not finishing high school are results of low intellectual capacity, low people smarts, and low initiative. These personal characteristics are what has caused the resentment that finds an outlet in preferring a loud-mouthed buffoon to a polished valedictorian from Wellesley or even a Princeton-Harvard Law graduate.
BTW this doesn't mean that I don't favor doing everything and anything that might be cost-effective in helping all our kids avoid being stuck in such a situation. I'm just trying to describe a situation; doesn't mean I like it.
8
This is a good and telling article. All the candidates need to address the discontented, and it is obvious that Trump has managed it best. Unfortunately, he isn’t offering plausible solutions and the sad fact before us is that none of the candidates are. Our country doesn’t have available enough decent paying blue collar job opportunities to care for the first five groups listed in the statistics chart and the numbers aren’t going to improve.
Unfortunately, none of the candidates, Cruz, Rubio, Sanders, or Clinton has solutions to the job shortage problem. No one does. Trump has simply spoken the right words to fuel the angst. Combining his campaign rhetoric with racist rants is further fueling the discontent. Witness Chicago.
Our candidates have a nearly insurmountable task before them. Caring for the America’s people is what Presidential leadership is all about. Combine that with a world full of discontent and the job before our President is a breathtaking challenge.
Electing the proper leader is an enormous challenge and right on its coattail is electing a Congress that can help return stability to our country. I’m sure that pundits and historians will claim that there have been equally disruptive Presidential campaigns but what point history? We have to answer to our current times.
Unfortunately, none of the candidates, Cruz, Rubio, Sanders, or Clinton has solutions to the job shortage problem. No one does. Trump has simply spoken the right words to fuel the angst. Combining his campaign rhetoric with racist rants is further fueling the discontent. Witness Chicago.
Our candidates have a nearly insurmountable task before them. Caring for the America’s people is what Presidential leadership is all about. Combine that with a world full of discontent and the job before our President is a breathtaking challenge.
Electing the proper leader is an enormous challenge and right on its coattail is electing a Congress that can help return stability to our country. I’m sure that pundits and historians will claim that there have been equally disruptive Presidential campaigns but what point history? We have to answer to our current times.
4
No one can figure out how to bring decent paying jobs requiring mechanical skills and ordinary labor back to the U.S.?
We can start by dumping the funky NAFTA and TPP trade deals pushed by the elite of both political parties. Then we can make a huge federal investment in our crumbling infrastructure and at the same time green up our industries. As Al Gore said, an unemployed coal miner could be working in a nice, above ground facility manufacturing solar panels.
But NOOOO…we've got the fossil lobby.
We can start by dumping the funky NAFTA and TPP trade deals pushed by the elite of both political parties. Then we can make a huge federal investment in our crumbling infrastructure and at the same time green up our industries. As Al Gore said, an unemployed coal miner could be working in a nice, above ground facility manufacturing solar panels.
But NOOOO…we've got the fossil lobby.
12
Philip, your points are well taken, especially regarding infrastructure repair. NAFTA is a fact of life and TPP is still up in the air, but I absolutely agree about infrastructure.
Gee maybe if Congress hadn't obstructed every jobs bill presented to them over the past 8 years, hadn't opposed an increase in the minimum wage, and hadnt refused to fund new investment in both infrastrucure and alernative energy, these folks would have some optimism about the future. Obama has been their biggest champion in Washington yet they hold him personally responsible for their misfortunes. How ironic and how sad.
50
Interestingly, the demographic is the same that supported Sen. Joseph McCarthy in the 1950's.
11
I truly believe that all these theories are just as phony and feeble as Trump. Let me put it simply: The man is a snake oil salesman. Those attracted to him, educated or otherwise, are in awe of his flashiness, of his foolishness, of his "language", of his bravado, of his racist and sexist remarks, of his capacity to boldly lie, of his ability to "stick it to others", and of his ruthless imperial manner. A magician, indeed. Go ahead and vote for this energumen (go ahead and look it up.)
8
There are basically two types of Trump supporters. One is a low information voter who really doesn't understand the issues or how government works. Trump can promise these voters the moon and they believe. The other is a voter with xenophobic leanings who cannot come to terms with the changing face of the American citizenry. Trump gives them an easy enemy on which to vent their frustrations. Both types are perfect receptors for Trump's message. Unfortunately, neither has any chance of improving their lot by supporting him.
11
There is a reason republicans always want to gut education:as this article proves, the less educated the population, the more support they get for their party.
18
So, you think the majority of Hilary supporters across the South are privately schooled?
Maine is a very rural state and both the economy and both major parties have not been addressing the economic decline and consequent dysphoria and despair in rural parts of this state. It is likewise true for the rest of rural America.
Since the 1990's it became unfashionable for politicians to campaign on helping the poor and disadvantaged. Government action has followed rhetoric and thus both the economy and the political parties have failed to deliver benefits to large areas of sparsely populated rural America. It is no surprise that despair, drug use and white mortality are on the rise there, and that those folks are looking for candidates outside the political establishment to provide hope for change.
Yet the same can be said for poor, urban African American communities, where despair, crime, poverty and gun violence also are taking a heavy toll.
That there were nearly 3,000 gun related deaths in the city of Chicago last year says a great deal about how we have turned a blind eye to the problems there and in the black community in general.
In 1968, Bobby Kennedy, in his brief run for president, visited impoverished parts of the country. His campaign drew attention to the suffering there and the need for significant government help to turn things around. Perhaps the shock of Trumps popularity will motivate politicians to begin seriously addressing the poverty issue once more.
Since the 1990's it became unfashionable for politicians to campaign on helping the poor and disadvantaged. Government action has followed rhetoric and thus both the economy and the political parties have failed to deliver benefits to large areas of sparsely populated rural America. It is no surprise that despair, drug use and white mortality are on the rise there, and that those folks are looking for candidates outside the political establishment to provide hope for change.
Yet the same can be said for poor, urban African American communities, where despair, crime, poverty and gun violence also are taking a heavy toll.
That there were nearly 3,000 gun related deaths in the city of Chicago last year says a great deal about how we have turned a blind eye to the problems there and in the black community in general.
In 1968, Bobby Kennedy, in his brief run for president, visited impoverished parts of the country. His campaign drew attention to the suffering there and the need for significant government help to turn things around. Perhaps the shock of Trumps popularity will motivate politicians to begin seriously addressing the poverty issue once more.
11
One large group is the "overpriced, over-qualified" older worker who has had to take a considerable cut in pay and/or responsibility to find new employment after a layoff. Cutbacks have not only ocurred in the low-skill, low-education segments of our economy, but also in the area of computer technology, where companies like Disney recently brought in low-compensation H-1B visa "grunts" from India to replace highly-compensated US citizens.
22
Donald Trump also appeals to the highly-paid, highly-educated people who have seen their jobs be off-shored or replaced with cheaper H-1B visa recipients. He's chosen "aliens" as the scapegoats, but the corporate CEOs who get paid big bonuses for finding slave labor are at fault.
In an earlier time, the voters described in this article would have been perfect for union organizing and likely very receptive to true Progressive political positions.
However, the current Democratic leadership, by focusing on amassing corporate money and catering to Wall Street (read: Republican Lite), has abandoned these voters. Not only that, but the Democrats have ceded the political narrative to the Republicans and allowed Abortion, Guns, and Race to "trump" more important economic issues.
I'm working for a win by Senator Sanders to bring the Democratic party back to its progressive roots.
However, the current Democratic leadership, by focusing on amassing corporate money and catering to Wall Street (read: Republican Lite), has abandoned these voters. Not only that, but the Democrats have ceded the political narrative to the Republicans and allowed Abortion, Guns, and Race to "trump" more important economic issues.
I'm working for a win by Senator Sanders to bring the Democratic party back to its progressive roots.
7
For all those who yearn for a past that never existed but in the fevered dreams of the uninformed the America I grew up in believed you became an American some time before you boarded the ship that brought you here.
1
Wow, the most thoughtful and reasonable article about Trump that the New York Times has been able to muster since the campaign began.
But I still have not seen any documentation of Trump having a "...racially loaded message..." Illegal immigrants from Mexico are not a race and neither are Muslims. I have not heard Trump speak out against, or disparage African-Americans in any way, which is probably why there is no correlation between county-wide population contrasts either way between whites and African-Americans.
But I still have not seen any documentation of Trump having a "...racially loaded message..." Illegal immigrants from Mexico are not a race and neither are Muslims. I have not heard Trump speak out against, or disparage African-Americans in any way, which is probably why there is no correlation between county-wide population contrasts either way between whites and African-Americans.
5
Birtherism and the suggestion that Obama is from Kenya is all about race.
Applicable to this story is the op-ed in today's paper, "My Father’s Killer’s Funeral" by AATISH TASEER. Hundreds of thousands of psychologically the same people came out in Rawalpindi to express their hatred for Taseer's father because he tried to modernize at least one aspect of Pakistani society years ago.
The human brain is not infinitely expandable, it has a limit and these folks have hit it. We used to call them, "reactionaries." They are incapable or unwilling to accept the changes being forced upon them by a modern world they experience as out of control.
They fear chaos yet stand on the edge of causing chaos. Trump is a riot, an incipient South-Central LA on the day before the Rodney King verdict. Dangerous times,
The human brain is not infinitely expandable, it has a limit and these folks have hit it. We used to call them, "reactionaries." They are incapable or unwilling to accept the changes being forced upon them by a modern world they experience as out of control.
They fear chaos yet stand on the edge of causing chaos. Trump is a riot, an incipient South-Central LA on the day before the Rodney King verdict. Dangerous times,
3
"The high proportion of whites without a high school diploma in these places — the single strongest predictor of Trump support of those we tested — has lasting consequences for incomes, for example." When we fail to educate members of our society, we plant the seeds of economic failure, crime and political chaos.
Self-reliance is a virtue, but sometimes it can best be fostered not by laissez faire, but by working to ensure that everyone in the society achieves certain minimum goals. If we want an educated workforce that can earn and create jobs, then we have to invest in education. If we want an informed citizenry, then we need to give them the tools required for properly assimilating basic facts about economic and political reality. Cutting taxes will not solve the problem. We need to invest in our people if we want a successful country.
Self-reliance is a virtue, but sometimes it can best be fostered not by laissez faire, but by working to ensure that everyone in the society achieves certain minimum goals. If we want an educated workforce that can earn and create jobs, then we have to invest in education. If we want an informed citizenry, then we need to give them the tools required for properly assimilating basic facts about economic and political reality. Cutting taxes will not solve the problem. We need to invest in our people if we want a successful country.
11
Now I am curious - where can I see the map of Trump support by county?
2
Thank you, Irwin and Katz, for one of the best analyses I have read so far to explain the rise of Mr. Trump.
3
Government could have helped these folks but, of course, they've been programmed to hate the government, so the wheel of their resentment turns over on them every day. Reagan told them "government is the problem", but these poor souls can't, with no education, understand that *they're* the problem. They got what they asked for.
10
What is not stated but seems obvious is that this set of people would also be unlikely to vote for someone with a Hispanic last name. I think there is a significant amount of support for him that represents rejection of the alternatives.
5
of the 50 poorest counties that have voted so far - trump has won 45.
9
Johnny Comelately from San Diego makes a good point.
One correlation with Trump supporters has been that they tend to be "authoritarians" who are uncomfortable with change in general.
There is a simple four question test to see if someone tends to be an authoritarian.
Read about the test:
http://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11127424/trump-authoritarianism
The four questions are:
Please tell me which one you think is more important for a child to have: independence or respect for elders?
Please tell me which one you think is more important for a child to have: obedience or self-reliance?
Please tell me which one you think is more important for a child to have: to be considerate or to be well-behaved?
Please tell me which one you think is more important for a child to have: curiosity or good manners?
One correlation with Trump supporters has been that they tend to be "authoritarians" who are uncomfortable with change in general.
There is a simple four question test to see if someone tends to be an authoritarian.
Read about the test:
http://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11127424/trump-authoritarianism
The four questions are:
Please tell me which one you think is more important for a child to have: independence or respect for elders?
Please tell me which one you think is more important for a child to have: obedience or self-reliance?
Please tell me which one you think is more important for a child to have: to be considerate or to be well-behaved?
Please tell me which one you think is more important for a child to have: curiosity or good manners?
4
Sorry, those four questions are silly. Life is not so black and white. A child needs a blend of each of the comparative factors to become a responsible adult and it is up to the parents to make sure a child doesn't tip too far in either direction.
They should've gotten the correlation for Trumpistas who have never voted in any election , for any candidate from either party in their lifetime . That correlation would be an interesting attribute of the typical Trumpista !!!
1
Do not be so quick to denigrate and disparage these poor people. They have been hurt by outsourcing, automation, and competition from emigrants. We have left them behind. Their support of Trump is logical. The country needs a strategy to respond to their plight, not a blame game.
31
Makes perfect sense. As a very accomplished salesman who has sold million dollar condos to the rich and famous, it’s not much of a feat to sell himself to the mobile home demographic as the answer to all their problems- for free! At least Trumps marketing team now knows where they can make a killing selling Trump water door-to door.
8
This American whose ancestors arrived in the 1600's is not voting for Trump.
3
Why is it so hard to say "racist"? The pattern you guy are picking up was there in 2012 and 2008. Look at the map of the counties that flipped from blue to red from 2004 to 2008.
Economically troubled geographies? They went for Romney, hard. Of the 100 most welfare-dependent counties in the country, Romney won 77. Come on guys.
"Obama performed well in many of America’s wealthiest areas, including places that have been Republican strongholds for generations. Romney, on the other hand, racked up lopsided wins won in some of the country’s poorest counties. A closer look at Romney’s success among the poor reveals a disturbing picture of the forces overwhelming the Republican Party in our time."
http://blog.chron.com/goplifer/2013/09/how-the-gop-is-winning-among-the-...
Economically troubled geographies? They went for Romney, hard. Of the 100 most welfare-dependent counties in the country, Romney won 77. Come on guys.
"Obama performed well in many of America’s wealthiest areas, including places that have been Republican strongholds for generations. Romney, on the other hand, racked up lopsided wins won in some of the country’s poorest counties. A closer look at Romney’s success among the poor reveals a disturbing picture of the forces overwhelming the Republican Party in our time."
http://blog.chron.com/goplifer/2013/09/how-the-gop-is-winning-among-the-...
9
I agree, 50 years ago The Republican Party created the Southern Strategy, the conscious effort to appeal to the segregationist Strom Thurmond and George Wallace Democratic voters.
In the 1980’s the Republican Party gave us the culture wars and Reagan and the dog whistle politics of welfare queens and States Rights and created the Reagan Democrats.
With Obama, they gave us the birthers, death panels, support of the Confederate flag, and created the Tea Party.
In the 1980’s the Republican Party gave us the culture wars and Reagan and the dog whistle politics of welfare queens and States Rights and created the Reagan Democrats.
With Obama, they gave us the birthers, death panels, support of the Confederate flag, and created the Tea Party.
I wonder and fear, and this coming from a leftie, if we, on our side bear some responsibility for this demagogue? We, like the Right have made it difficult for moderate opposition to be heard with a semblance of respect.
Causing the moderates to be forced out of the game.
Both sides have just caterwauled so consistently about any and all of our causes that, combined with partial news from social media and infotainment from the networks are making earnest polite discourse rare.
I do think that the people who support Trump, be they undereducated or "educated" do not care about facts as much as they yearn for a savior in any form.
What has happened to the people displaced by these new global times is not fair and it does seem to have a foundation in a massive amalgam of elite wealthy and like minded politicians. But the folks who suffer the most are only an afterthought for them - whether they are loggers, coal miners, southerners with long neglected schools and the increasingly rare American factory worker.
I can't say that really expensive mandatory healthcare insurance for the people who do not qualify for large subsidies is very difficult for many to swallow. It's pretty staggering for me. It's prevented me from replacing my 1/3 million mile automobile which I desperately need to do for work.
I tell you where I don't bear responsibility is that I do buy as much American made items as I can.
Causing the moderates to be forced out of the game.
Both sides have just caterwauled so consistently about any and all of our causes that, combined with partial news from social media and infotainment from the networks are making earnest polite discourse rare.
I do think that the people who support Trump, be they undereducated or "educated" do not care about facts as much as they yearn for a savior in any form.
What has happened to the people displaced by these new global times is not fair and it does seem to have a foundation in a massive amalgam of elite wealthy and like minded politicians. But the folks who suffer the most are only an afterthought for them - whether they are loggers, coal miners, southerners with long neglected schools and the increasingly rare American factory worker.
I can't say that really expensive mandatory healthcare insurance for the people who do not qualify for large subsidies is very difficult for many to swallow. It's pretty staggering for me. It's prevented me from replacing my 1/3 million mile automobile which I desperately need to do for work.
I tell you where I don't bear responsibility is that I do buy as much American made items as I can.
6
I put the blame on the right-wing think tanks and right-wing media that give these voters a lot of misinformation.
My mother, God bless her, asked me in 2012 after seeing something on Fox that "why didn't Obama just show his birth certificate."
My mother, God bless her, asked me in 2012 after seeing something on Fox that "why didn't Obama just show his birth certificate."
Is there any statistical correlation of Trump supporter values to the values supporters of dictators in advanced civilizations spanning the past 100 years?
2
Trump is a kind of dark horse candidate in the sense that, although many people knew who he was, few believed he could rise in popularity so quickly, defying everything from reality to civility. By giving a voice to some of the most ignorant and bigoted segments of this country, Trump has awakened a sinister and destabilizing force.
One can hope that political differences will be set aside and a large majority of thinking, civil Americans will soundly defeat the force for hate which energizes this ersatz candidate for President of the United States.
One can hope that political differences will be set aside and a large majority of thinking, civil Americans will soundly defeat the force for hate which energizes this ersatz candidate for President of the United States.
5
This analysis and its apparent attitude toward people who identify their ancestry as "American" is offensive. Out in the great middle of America between the coastal zones of the northeast, there isn't nearly as much interest in the national origins of one's predecessors. It is not like the non-melting pot of New York where almost everyone knows when their first ancestor "came over", what they did, where they lived and how many generations back that story goes.
My ancestry? I grew up only knowing that my father believed his family had moved west to Oklahoma from Tennessee. On my mother's side, I was told my great grandparents moved to Texas in a covered wagon sometime in the 1890s from Georgia, USA. That's it. After three or four generations here, unless one has been self segregated into ethic zones, origin doesn't really matter much at all. My last name can be found in Ireland, with possible ties to England.
I had a friend in college in Texas with the last name of Molino who never talked about, or apparently even considered, the Italian origins of his name. Another person I worked with by the name of Lenoir, which is also a street name in Paris, never, ever considered himself any part French (nor would anyone on meeting him).
It is not, please, that they or I wear our Americanism on our "sleeves". It is just that we grew up considering ourselves first, foremost and completely American. To suggest that this is some sort of malady or abnormality is wrong.
My ancestry? I grew up only knowing that my father believed his family had moved west to Oklahoma from Tennessee. On my mother's side, I was told my great grandparents moved to Texas in a covered wagon sometime in the 1890s from Georgia, USA. That's it. After three or four generations here, unless one has been self segregated into ethic zones, origin doesn't really matter much at all. My last name can be found in Ireland, with possible ties to England.
I had a friend in college in Texas with the last name of Molino who never talked about, or apparently even considered, the Italian origins of his name. Another person I worked with by the name of Lenoir, which is also a street name in Paris, never, ever considered himself any part French (nor would anyone on meeting him).
It is not, please, that they or I wear our Americanism on our "sleeves". It is just that we grew up considering ourselves first, foremost and completely American. To suggest that this is some sort of malady or abnormality is wrong.
29
But maybe there is a problem in this blandness, this lack of roots, this lack of culture, this lack of insight into one's history?
Basically, his supporters are uneducated Whites who didn't adapt to the changing economy by getting more skills, changing careers or moving to other places. Their anger at being left behind but it is sorely misplaced. DT is not going to revert this economy back to the 1960s when he uses overseas cheap labor for his companies. Their willful ignorance, delusion and embrace of a racist, sexist xenophobe prevent me from feeling an ounce of pity for them.
19
Trump merchandise is not being manufactured in the United States, and he has stated that the minimum wage needs to be lower. How do people, even those with little education, not understand that their interests are of no importance to this charlatan?
20
Wow. Just wow. Let's take a look at Hillary's demographics. African American, trailer parks, female, poor, depending on government aid. Sounds kind of racist and sexist in reverse doesn't it?
We recently had some remodeling done to our house. All the contractors were older gentlemen. I asked where the young guys were. I was told that all the illegals undercut their pricing and no one could feed a family anymore in the trades. Perhaps there is a legitimate concern when 10,000,000 plus illegal immigrants show up looking for work. Something the professionals and urban whites in cushy, college track jobs don't have to worry about.
Seems like ignorance of the economic plight of American citizens who seek redress of their complaints. Isn't that democracy?
We recently had some remodeling done to our house. All the contractors were older gentlemen. I asked where the young guys were. I was told that all the illegals undercut their pricing and no one could feed a family anymore in the trades. Perhaps there is a legitimate concern when 10,000,000 plus illegal immigrants show up looking for work. Something the professionals and urban whites in cushy, college track jobs don't have to worry about.
Seems like ignorance of the economic plight of American citizens who seek redress of their complaints. Isn't that democracy?
30
I have never understood this backward logic. Why is it the illegal immigrants' or the government's fault if contractors hire immigrants? Why is it not the people who are doing the hiring's fault, or the customers who demand the cheapest quote before they will hire the company to do a job?
Is it the fault of the poor Chinese laborer working in a factory that the majority of US manufacturing jobs have been outsourced to other countries? No, it is not.
The consumer searching for and purchasing cheap goods and labor (or the sad fact that many have trouble affording the alternative) bears the bulk of the responsibility for the hiring of and low wages paid to the workers performing the work.
Is it the fault of the poor Chinese laborer working in a factory that the majority of US manufacturing jobs have been outsourced to other countries? No, it is not.
The consumer searching for and purchasing cheap goods and labor (or the sad fact that many have trouble affording the alternative) bears the bulk of the responsibility for the hiring of and low wages paid to the workers performing the work.
2
So Trump would have no support if the economy was richer and distributed wider.
The Trump supporters described here are the White economic equivalent of the inner city Blacks with the notable difference that it was these Whites who supported the very reasons our economy isn't doing well - globalization and foreign entanglements.
Raise the tide and all will be happy.
The Trump supporters described here are the White economic equivalent of the inner city Blacks with the notable difference that it was these Whites who supported the very reasons our economy isn't doing well - globalization and foreign entanglements.
Raise the tide and all will be happy.
7
"White Anglo-Saxon Protestants" - "Whites with European non-Catholic ancestry"?
What? Don't you have to be a genuine Angle or Saxon any more? Things are really going downhill.....
What? Don't you have to be a genuine Angle or Saxon any more? Things are really going downhill.....
3
Lots of support for Trump from urban educated groups as well - those of us who pay the disproportionately large share of taxes. Government spending is way out of control and needs to be cut. LOTS of fat. Eliminate food stamps, welfare, housing vouchers, cut the salary of any fed making over $100K by 10%, make Europe, Japan, Israel and others pay for the defense we provide them. Get rid of the illegals. They concentrate in cities and drive up the cost of housing. Read (think it was Pew) 500K illegals in NY metro area. Even at 10 people per household that 50,000 housing units off the market.
9
No more military build up either. Fifty percent of our taxes goes to the military.
5
One realistic thing the country could do to start to overcome this level of isolation and divisiveness - at least for future generations - would be to require several years of national service for all young people. They'd have to mix it up with people of different backgrounds, live in unfamiliar parts of the country, and learn useful skills - which might, with any luck, lead to jobs and, even better, new businesses/organizations.
And it might, again with any luck, provide some glue to this fraying nation. (My elderly father-in-law, who grew up as a poor immigrant kid, recalls his first day in boot camp during WWII, when he met skinny kids from Appalachia who had never worn shoes before. He had a kind of epiphany, that as hard as his life was, there were those who had it worse.)
And it might, again with any luck, provide some glue to this fraying nation. (My elderly father-in-law, who grew up as a poor immigrant kid, recalls his first day in boot camp during WWII, when he met skinny kids from Appalachia who had never worn shoes before. He had a kind of epiphany, that as hard as his life was, there were those who had it worse.)
20
I think your right and the compulsory national service should be the draft. If we want to expand the scope of the military's work by doing community service, so be it. But by making it military service, such as your father-in-law and my father experienced, it may:
1) engender unity by having every 18 year old American for a few years work, relax and sleep together regardless of background, and
2) have us seriously re-consider the scope of our military and our willingness to enter wars when everyone's child is potentially in harms way
1) engender unity by having every 18 year old American for a few years work, relax and sleep together regardless of background, and
2) have us seriously re-consider the scope of our military and our willingness to enter wars when everyone's child is potentially in harms way
3
Looking at this, Trump's supporters are the white disinfranchised, left behinds of this century's economy. Globalization, technological revolution and social trends have all contributed. He's right about one thing. They are angry. Very angry. are looking for something or someone to blame. They do not look in the mirror. They blame the government and they blame others without white skin. Trump has purposefully harnessed their anger in a manner that is starting to tear the fabric of our society.
Trump must be stopped. He does not stand for this values of this country. He is not a patriot. Folks, if elected he will bring down the curtain on our beloved country. Let's stop this American traitor named Donald Trump.
Trump must be stopped. He does not stand for this values of this country. He is not a patriot. Folks, if elected he will bring down the curtain on our beloved country. Let's stop this American traitor named Donald Trump.
41
Our political elite made a decision that those displaced by globalization were road kill. "You can't make an omelette without breaking some eggs"
A very illuminating analysis by Irwin and Katz. I could say that it's an expected result with the comment that everyone knows someone who supports Trump, but having the correlations solidifies the thesis.
This study is much more than one about Trump's influence; it is a study about *us*. Those who want Trump to go away will still have to confront the large numbers of his supporters who will not go away. The very big issue that this study reveals is the shear number of these people. The questions that anti-Trump voters need to answer are, how large is this segment, and are they large enough to turn an election?
It's helpful to look at past one-of candidates, such as Anderson whom Irwin and Katz mention, or Perot, who got 19% of the vote. Not bad for a third party. But I think that Trump detractors are treating Trump as having that level of support, when in reality there could be a ground swell for him, if his supporting numbers in this study turn out to be large.
Trump has a lot of delegates so far. If he were to win Florida, what then? It has the really disturbing implication that a large number of Americans, as they are tagged in the study, are unhappy enough to come out to vote when there is a candidate who they feel represents them.
Also, the disgruntled people in the study are a big market for Right Wing media, from whose subscriptions they make money. They send people to congress. Trump detractors will also have to address that cultural reality.
This study is much more than one about Trump's influence; it is a study about *us*. Those who want Trump to go away will still have to confront the large numbers of his supporters who will not go away. The very big issue that this study reveals is the shear number of these people. The questions that anti-Trump voters need to answer are, how large is this segment, and are they large enough to turn an election?
It's helpful to look at past one-of candidates, such as Anderson whom Irwin and Katz mention, or Perot, who got 19% of the vote. Not bad for a third party. But I think that Trump detractors are treating Trump as having that level of support, when in reality there could be a ground swell for him, if his supporting numbers in this study turn out to be large.
Trump has a lot of delegates so far. If he were to win Florida, what then? It has the really disturbing implication that a large number of Americans, as they are tagged in the study, are unhappy enough to come out to vote when there is a candidate who they feel represents them.
Also, the disgruntled people in the study are a big market for Right Wing media, from whose subscriptions they make money. They send people to congress. Trump detractors will also have to address that cultural reality.
3
If there are so many who are siding with Trump then it means that all parties (and their representatives in Congress) are best served by making a case to people fitting this profile as part of their pitch. An election is a numbers game, and the broad swath of candidates are busy figuring out how to get delegates without depending exclusively on this segment, and is not investing the time or effort to express to them what are the plans or policies that may help them out of the economic rut in their localities. Trump is benefiting by making a case (however misleading and manipulative) that their concerns matter. And it is a self perpetuating cycle: They vote for those who cut taxes and shrink budgets in their states and localities to "attract or create jobs" that are low wage, overstated or may not stick. The tax cuts lead to reductions in services, sub-par infrastructure, and less access to and quality of education - with less likelihood of a path to better opportunities and a more prosperous future.
3
Well stated, @GY.
Your opening argument (and conclusion) neatly captures the underlying current of the Trump phenomenon.
Our demographics has changed. There are more first and second generation immigrants whose heritage begins and ends in America, not where their parents came from. People like Ted Cruz and Bobby Jindal consider themselves (correctly) as Americans than anything else, or even hyphenated.
What we are seeing is the accidental evolution of Republican party to adapt to this reality. When the republican history books are written, the historians might even give it a formal name - "Trumpaissance".
Our demographics has changed. There are more first and second generation immigrants whose heritage begins and ends in America, not where their parents came from. People like Ted Cruz and Bobby Jindal consider themselves (correctly) as Americans than anything else, or even hyphenated.
What we are seeing is the accidental evolution of Republican party to adapt to this reality. When the republican history books are written, the historians might even give it a formal name - "Trumpaissance".
2
I take issue with the phrase "one of the strongest predictors." These are correlations; it's not clear precisely what statistical methods are being used here, but it's doubtful that they establish causality. Worse, when loading lots of correlated variables into a multivariate analysis, the truly important factors get hidden. Thus, owning a mobile home seems to be more important than race or economic performance? Come on, use your heads.
10
Hemingway: Your statement about loading lots of correlated variables into a multivariate analysis caused the truly important factors to get hidden is incorrect. In fact quite the opposite. It sorts thru and determines which of the many variables are correlated to the test state. Although not stated here, it also typically show co-variance which I bet is evident here: moble homes and race factors (voting for segregationist, not voting for liberal repubs).
You should stick to writing stories and running with bulls
You should stick to writing stories and running with bulls
Being a "strong predictor" does not imply causality.
given that our politics are motivated by special interests and money, it makes sense that the rural undereducated and disadvantaged will be left behind. politicians will look at them in the rear view mirror and ask, what good are they?
the portrait here suggests the caricature "trailer park trash," but the real segmentation follows from our political history: growing inequality driven by politically crafted laws, carve outs and loopholes. cynical politics has created a population excluded from the money spoils and that population has grown large enough to produce a tipping point.
note to authors: i understand the rhetorical prudence of using a simple indicator like "correlation" (parametric? nonparametric?) to convey journalist results, but you should have used multiple regression to sort out the direct vs. indirect causal factors here. "mobile home" may be just another way to define "bad economy", and "american" another way to say you're not educated enough to care about ancestry.com. also, the picture will likely change as voting comes in from the coasts; this is still largely a rural, southeast and midwest demographic swath.
the portrait here suggests the caricature "trailer park trash," but the real segmentation follows from our political history: growing inequality driven by politically crafted laws, carve outs and loopholes. cynical politics has created a population excluded from the money spoils and that population has grown large enough to produce a tipping point.
note to authors: i understand the rhetorical prudence of using a simple indicator like "correlation" (parametric? nonparametric?) to convey journalist results, but you should have used multiple regression to sort out the direct vs. indirect causal factors here. "mobile home" may be just another way to define "bad economy", and "american" another way to say you're not educated enough to care about ancestry.com. also, the picture will likely change as voting comes in from the coasts; this is still largely a rural, southeast and midwest demographic swath.
14
We need the perspective of scholarly historians who can show the similarity between Trump's rhetoric and history's despots who have undermined civility and the democratic process by appealing to and stoking anger and violence, by scapegoating minorities, and by twisting facts into fiction.
30
I saw Trump being interviewed last night and he blamed the people's anger for the violent nature of his rallies. He specifically cited the unemployment rate among black youth, which he said was 57%. Well, no. It's currently 23.3%, which is the 4th lowest monthly rate (out of 530 months) since the beginning of the data series in 1972. The three months when the rate was lower were all in the year 2000.
So, people are angry that the unemployment rate among black youth is near the lowest levels on record?
So, people are angry that the unemployment rate among black youth is near the lowest levels on record?
21
Don't confuse us with facts. This piece is layering information which trips up most modeling. (Although it makes it sound more researched, I guess.)
Why not just take Trump at his word. We've all heard his rants by now. The proof is demographics are clearly shifting away from the white majority. He understands this and exploits it. The rest of the " reason" are rationalization.
Frankly, better it plays out now before the divide deepens. As the numbers worsen for whites without steam released along the way, the worse it will be.
Why not just take Trump at his word. We've all heard his rants by now. The proof is demographics are clearly shifting away from the white majority. He understands this and exploits it. The rest of the " reason" are rationalization.
Frankly, better it plays out now before the divide deepens. As the numbers worsen for whites without steam released along the way, the worse it will be.
Since when does Trump care about Black youth?
He has the ability to hire. So does Romney. I said 4 years ago in the comments here that Romney would be better off opening up some kind of foundation or manufacturing center to give the poor jobs. You want to be a job creator? Then create jobs. You don't have to run for President to do that if you are rich and have access to capital.
No, they just want the POWER.
He has the ability to hire. So does Romney. I said 4 years ago in the comments here that Romney would be better off opening up some kind of foundation or manufacturing center to give the poor jobs. You want to be a job creator? Then create jobs. You don't have to run for President to do that if you are rich and have access to capital.
No, they just want the POWER.
1
How is an unemployment rate among black youths of 23.5%, even if the lowest since 1972, anything that should be extolled?!
What I don't understand is why there can't be more common ground across the racial divide to fight the absolutely terrible policies by Republicans AND Democrats that have failed to create opportunities for anyone with good HS learning and some basic common sense.
What I don't understand is why there can't be more common ground across the racial divide to fight the absolutely terrible policies by Republicans AND Democrats that have failed to create opportunities for anyone with good HS learning and some basic common sense.
The Upshot fails to indicate whether this description of Trump voters supports his contention that he brings "new" voters into the Republican party. My guess is that similar to their employment/underemployment/removal from the labor market, Trump voters have been marginal participants in elections, but generally buy into the GOP idea that voting is useless because government is always the problem.
The permanent white underclass which lives in the pockets of the US where the jobs that can be done by brawn alone have been lost and the few entrepreneurial opportunities have been seized by immigrants, pursues the "quick, simple fix" for their generational poverty from politicians who rarely speak their language or understand their problems. At the national level, the candidates whose parents and grandparents worked hard, sacrificed so their children would be educated have little in common with voters who never saw education as a ladder out of poverty and saw little point in having ambitions beyond day to day survival comforted by alcohol and drugs.
The other unexplored missing piece of the Trump voter puzzle is their failure to accept the benefits of "group" power whether political party, union, church or community. The Trump voter seems to favor the cult of the individual, the cult of the "Great Man", the vigilante and the lone hero against the world story. Trump voters aggressively deny "It takes a village"
Thanks for the information, Upshot.
The permanent white underclass which lives in the pockets of the US where the jobs that can be done by brawn alone have been lost and the few entrepreneurial opportunities have been seized by immigrants, pursues the "quick, simple fix" for their generational poverty from politicians who rarely speak their language or understand their problems. At the national level, the candidates whose parents and grandparents worked hard, sacrificed so their children would be educated have little in common with voters who never saw education as a ladder out of poverty and saw little point in having ambitions beyond day to day survival comforted by alcohol and drugs.
The other unexplored missing piece of the Trump voter puzzle is their failure to accept the benefits of "group" power whether political party, union, church or community. The Trump voter seems to favor the cult of the individual, the cult of the "Great Man", the vigilante and the lone hero against the world story. Trump voters aggressively deny "It takes a village"
Thanks for the information, Upshot.
35
As a retired academic psychologist, I'd like to know more about the measures and how the correlations were calculated, but this is a pretty good way of confirming a lot of suspicions. My take on the Trump phenomenon is that his voters largely are people who have identified as Republicans as a result of the Party pandering to their ignorance and bigotry over decades. Remember anti Communism from the '50s? The big flip occurred between 1960 and '64 when the Party began exploiting racism. The unsavory behavior of Republicans is not a recent development. The falling economic prospects of this group, which is a major component of their anger, is testimony to how well the Republican Party has represented their interests. Racism was the hook; Reaganomics was the sting. Rather than give up their bigotry, however, these voters are sticking with the Republican Party and going after the leadership, AKA the establishment, by supporting Trump. Too bad they can't see their self interest well enough to vote for it.
132
However you have to admire the brilliance of the Republicans, to get the people considered by their party as economically marginal and negligible to vote for them. If only the democrats could figure out a way to get those same underprivileged republican voters to vote for them besides trying to offer them a fair wage, free medical care, better education, safer environment and working conditions, access to better housing...
Is ignorance or contempt (for the constant stress on ethnicity and race in the US) the explanation for people answering "American" to the question about ancestry? The Census is an instrument that prompts a lot push back from many people. That pretty much indicates the mood of the Trump supporter.
7
The census asks you for ancestry but understands that it can mean either "where your immigrant ancestors came from" or "how you self-identify." I don't know about 1990 or earlier, but in 2000 "American" was a popular choice in the southeastern US. If you search for C2KBR-35 on line, you will find a report from the 2000 census that include a very interesting map showing the plurality (not majority) ancestry reported by individuals in every county.
I am distinctly NOT a Trump supporter, and I'm irritated by the Census question. My family has been here since 1668; at this point, what does it matter where they immigrated from? I always check "American."
This essay goes right along with one at Vox.com that correlates Trumpism with a desire for autocracy. Trump's followers see him as a strong leader who will make their lives better and more secure. (They know he's strong because they watched how he fired people on his reality TV show.) The same sort of people are supporting Vladimir Putin. Russia had a taste of American-style democracy after the fall of the Soviet Union, and many of her citizens found that they did not like the risk of failure. It is comical that Trump's followers think he, a selfish businessman, is the answer when the American economy they want is exactly the one created by President Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal. They should swallow their racism and immigrant hatred and vote for the Democrats.
121
What about service in the military? Or employment in other parts of the military-industrial complex? Even if it happened some time in the past.
What happens to people who want to pledge their allegiance to their country, but fear being used as cannon fodder by people "who had other priorities"? Or where service of other kinds looks too much like a handout to "those people"? The correlates in this study are largely the properties of individuals, and although they are very interesting, they don't give a complete picture.
What happens to people who want to pledge their allegiance to their country, but fear being used as cannon fodder by people "who had other priorities"? Or where service of other kinds looks too much like a handout to "those people"? The correlates in this study are largely the properties of individuals, and although they are very interesting, they don't give a complete picture.
3
This information is helpful and the analysis makes sense. Thank you, because Trump supporters really worry me with so much anger and so much rabid support for a genuine con-artist.
These literally are the losers--the white "Americans" who have been passed by as the world moved on economically, socially, and technologically. So we can see where the anger comes from, and why they do not support Bernie (I wondered about that). Bernie wants to go after rising inequality and better treatment of labor. But many of these Trump supporters do not even have the education or skills for the skilled labor force we need these days. Bernie can't help them--as the article says, no one can. I wonder how many may be on welfare and depend on the government just to survive?
Besides being a con-artist, Trump is the authoritarian personality in action. He promises to "take care of his supporters," and I heard several of his supporters say the reason they like him is they trust him (as any good con-artist will manage to convince his prey) and he will look out for them.
These are dependent people in desperate need of help. They too are authoritarian personalities, who value order and harsh punishment and want to lord it over those they believe are beneath them. So Trump's bigoted and xenophobic appeals are the perfect net for these fish.
Note: There is a measure of the authoritarian personality based on the F-scale (fascist scale), developed in 1950 by Adorno and others.
These literally are the losers--the white "Americans" who have been passed by as the world moved on economically, socially, and technologically. So we can see where the anger comes from, and why they do not support Bernie (I wondered about that). Bernie wants to go after rising inequality and better treatment of labor. But many of these Trump supporters do not even have the education or skills for the skilled labor force we need these days. Bernie can't help them--as the article says, no one can. I wonder how many may be on welfare and depend on the government just to survive?
Besides being a con-artist, Trump is the authoritarian personality in action. He promises to "take care of his supporters," and I heard several of his supporters say the reason they like him is they trust him (as any good con-artist will manage to convince his prey) and he will look out for them.
These are dependent people in desperate need of help. They too are authoritarian personalities, who value order and harsh punishment and want to lord it over those they believe are beneath them. So Trump's bigoted and xenophobic appeals are the perfect net for these fish.
Note: There is a measure of the authoritarian personality based on the F-scale (fascist scale), developed in 1950 by Adorno and others.
31
Interestingly, these Trump supporters believe that these "losers" who are dependent on the government are minorities.
The Trump base consists mainly of those whom Obama expressly disavowed in 2008 -- whites whom he dismissed as clinging to their guns and religion.
Note that these people are those without a party. Their minority and urban counterparts with limited education and employment are loyal to Democrats (who take their votes but then ignore providing real opportunities by kowtowing to their special donors (status quo teachers unions, environmentalists, etc,) The Republican establishment likewise ignore them by promoting crony capitalism.
So the Trump base is the result of bipartisan failures to watch out for the working class.
Note that these people are those without a party. Their minority and urban counterparts with limited education and employment are loyal to Democrats (who take their votes but then ignore providing real opportunities by kowtowing to their special donors (status quo teachers unions, environmentalists, etc,) The Republican establishment likewise ignore them by promoting crony capitalism.
So the Trump base is the result of bipartisan failures to watch out for the working class.
16
Obama did NOT disavow them! They disavowed him! And this study here tells us why. These folks have never or rarely been exposed to situations and people which allowed them to develop empathy with others from different backgrounds, races, languages, religions, cultures.
Obama was simply noticing a couple of underlying similarities in these demographic groups. Indeed, one wonders if trump supporters are more likely to be gun owners. If so, I hope and pray that the current level of violence coming abut when his rallies are held does not become even more dangerous than it already signed!
Obama was simply noticing a couple of underlying similarities in these demographic groups. Indeed, one wonders if trump supporters are more likely to be gun owners. If so, I hope and pray that the current level of violence coming abut when his rallies are held does not become even more dangerous than it already signed!
98
It is just a matter of time until they start committing murder. Two of his supporters attacked a homeless man with iron pipes six months ago because he was "Mexican." Or they assumed he was. After beating him unconscious they urinated on his face. When arrested they said they did it because "trump is right about those people." The man arrested for stepping out of the crowd to punch a man in the face yesterday said "we may have to murder him next time." The only mystery is how no one has been killed yet, and why trump has not been charged with inciting to riot, inciting to violence, and as an accomplice in violent hate crimes that he directly encourages from the podium. He even told supporters to beat a protester and said "I will cover you legal costs."
He belongs in prison, in the cell next to cliven bundy.
He belongs in prison, in the cell next to cliven bundy.
14
I think that last word, changed by the dratted spelling program was supposed to be "is". Sorry...
1
Wait a minute. This is a skewed and way off perspective.
I grew up in KY and never knew where my ancestors came from. We didn't even know what "ethnicity" was. As far as we were concerned we were American. We had no particular foods or customs that could be identified with another country. We did not live in trailers, we went to college, and we were both Democrat and Republican.
It was only later into adulthood that I became interested in my "roots". It turned out that my people had come from England, Scotland and Ireland in the early 1600s (no wonder no one remembered!), and that we were also descended from a marriage between the daughter of Piscataway Indian chief (Kittamaquund) arranged by Fr. Andrew White SJ to help relations between Maryland's first colonists and the native Americans.
I proudly identify myself as "American".
I grew up in KY and never knew where my ancestors came from. We didn't even know what "ethnicity" was. As far as we were concerned we were American. We had no particular foods or customs that could be identified with another country. We did not live in trailers, we went to college, and we were both Democrat and Republican.
It was only later into adulthood that I became interested in my "roots". It turned out that my people had come from England, Scotland and Ireland in the early 1600s (no wonder no one remembered!), and that we were also descended from a marriage between the daughter of Piscataway Indian chief (Kittamaquund) arranged by Fr. Andrew White SJ to help relations between Maryland's first colonists and the native Americans.
I proudly identify myself as "American".
43
This finding is not about what you think about your roots, but how you answer a questionnaire. People who say "American" are apparently different from those who do not.
Thank you! Your post is a reminder that there are millions of Americans who have been here for generations, including those of slave descent, who have been the backbone of this country for centuries.
Like you, I'm an amalgamation of Irish-German-whatever who go back to the 1700's that then married other European immigrants (more Irish and then Swedes and Slavs) to make me the mutt I am today - that is American!
Like you, I'm an amalgamation of Irish-German-whatever who go back to the 1700's that then married other European immigrants (more Irish and then Swedes and Slavs) to make me the mutt I am today - that is American!
I'm torn here. The Trump voters described here are hurting. They need jobs. They need stability and hope for the future. They are victims of capitalism.
Sadly, capitalism is not going to save them without government intervention and direction, but they've been taught from the 1980s to hate government. Thus, it is hard to feel sorry for them. They've been used by their politicians to get elected on a platform of destroying the only institution that can save them.
Sadly, capitalism is not going to save them without government intervention and direction, but they've been taught from the 1980s to hate government. Thus, it is hard to feel sorry for them. They've been used by their politicians to get elected on a platform of destroying the only institution that can save them.
655
Trakker - This is probably the most succinct description of the double-bind many Trump and Republican supporters find themselves in without realizing it.
My question is always how do we collectively or just as Democrats reach these many people that are in need? Ultimately their lives would be much better if Sanders proposals were implemented.
My question is always how do we collectively or just as Democrats reach these many people that are in need? Ultimately their lives would be much better if Sanders proposals were implemented.
5
Trakker - This is probably the most succinct description of the double-bind many Trump and Republican supporters find themselves in without realizing it.
My question is always how do we collectively, or just as Democrats, reach these many people that are in need? Ultimately their lives would be much better if Sanders proposals (for instance) were implemented.
My question is always how do we collectively, or just as Democrats, reach these many people that are in need? Ultimately their lives would be much better if Sanders proposals (for instance) were implemented.
2
And now they're being used yet again, by a demagogue who isn't even a politician! They don't deserve this guy, either.
3
An interesting analysis. Could the authors share their methods and specific data sources, i.e. links to specific census data? While the individual factors account for 16%-36% of the variance I wonder how independent these predictors are?
9
One variable that should have been taken into consideration is travel. One of the benefits of travel is that its broadens ones perspective. But, to enrich your life you have go more than, say, 50 mile from your home. I realize that if you live in a mobile home there is probably not a lot of money for travel. That money is used for buying food. Suspicion is probably another variable that is worth considering. Suspicion of other people, cultures, religions are powerful factors. Trump plays to all the negative fears that this group have. Nothing in America is great. Trump is the one an only person that will make America great again. His followers want to go back in time. Back to the time when real men had real jobs. They didn't need education to live a decent like. Those days are over. Their kids will be even more radicalized that they are. It's not "Morning in America" any more. It's late afternoon. We are maturing as a country and an economy. Morning in America is dead.
27
I never believed in Morning in America.
Some called it MOURNING in America.
Some called it MOURNING in America.
13
It's so sad that these frustrated and poorly educated folks claim American ancestry but have never left their home town or even studied American history in high school. America is such a large country. If only they knew that people can move around like companies can, they can just move closer to job opportunities rather than wait for companies to move closer to them and start giving them jobs to do. And lack of high school diploma is no excuse now with the internet, but also public libraries have been free to use for decades. It's not the level of education they couldn't get, it's their attitudes towards education and lack of interest in continuous learning and self improvement. There have always been ambitious and successful artists without high school diploma.
54
That's an incredibly patronizing and ill-considered comment. I think we can take it as a given that they know that relocating is possible. Did it occur to you that they may not have the money to do so? Likewise, these poorer areas are less likely to have the type of public facilities such as a library with sufficient hours, internet access, etc. As far as private internet access is concerned, poorer parts of this country have far lower rates of broadband subscription--there is a digital divide in this country.
4
@HA
Yes, life is often difficult and sad in rural and downtrodden urban/suburban areas - I grew up in both. But it also can be beautiful and affirming in a manner successful elites can never understand. So, the stamina it takes to break free from such a life is extremely difficult.
I graduated from a HS in a small farming community in Upstate NY. I was in a senior class of 32, of which only 7 went on to higher education. And after the first year, I believe two of those had already dropped out. The closeness, the insularity and the claustrophobia of a small town life with restrictive world views and limited exposure, let alone interest, in the greater world can be very comforting as well as smothering. Also, having little to no access to "different" education opportunities, jobs prospects and people is a large factor in why so many can't or won't break free.
I left, coming down for college here in NYC and have been relatively successful and happy for 30+ years. Yet, there is an allure, a pull to having been in a part of a small community that never, ever leaves you. Why, I have land near the town I grew up in and may someday return.
Yes, life is often difficult and sad in rural and downtrodden urban/suburban areas - I grew up in both. But it also can be beautiful and affirming in a manner successful elites can never understand. So, the stamina it takes to break free from such a life is extremely difficult.
I graduated from a HS in a small farming community in Upstate NY. I was in a senior class of 32, of which only 7 went on to higher education. And after the first year, I believe two of those had already dropped out. The closeness, the insularity and the claustrophobia of a small town life with restrictive world views and limited exposure, let alone interest, in the greater world can be very comforting as well as smothering. Also, having little to no access to "different" education opportunities, jobs prospects and people is a large factor in why so many can't or won't break free.
I left, coming down for college here in NYC and have been relatively successful and happy for 30+ years. Yet, there is an allure, a pull to having been in a part of a small community that never, ever leaves you. Why, I have land near the town I grew up in and may someday return.
This is a tantalizing analysis, but the article would be much improved if it provided some numbers to support the authors' assertions. I'm uncomfortable accepting these generalizations (and sharing them with friends) if I can't explain what precisely is meant by:
"...the proportion of the white population that didn't finish highschool is relatively high."
Depending on the numbers, that could be a truly interesting correlation or a foray into Trump-esque demagoguery.
"...the proportion of the white population that didn't finish highschool is relatively high."
Depending on the numbers, that could be a truly interesting correlation or a foray into Trump-esque demagoguery.
10
Nah. These are second order correlates. They are not causal either.
The first order correlates, and theoretically causal variables that deserve analysis are:
a. The feeling of powerlessness, anxiety, fear that yearns for a strong man to restore the mythical order, and in a related vein
b. The near and total fed up-ness with the notion that people who are unlike them actually exist (er., that would be everyone non-white), and may actually have found ways to carve out a living.
Now a bunch of factors have produced (a). That would be living in a rural area, owning big guns, dropping out of school, doing drugs (or relatedly, doing religion), having children out of wedlock, living on government handouts and subsidies (that would be pretty much ALL rural and blue collar in America). And a bunch of factors have produced (b), i.e., the non-white immigration since 1962, the creation of a large service sector and brainpower industry, and the republican party that pretty much existed to enrich a handful of people at the expense of others (economically), and keep the races suspicious and hateful of each other (socially).
Kalidan
The first order correlates, and theoretically causal variables that deserve analysis are:
a. The feeling of powerlessness, anxiety, fear that yearns for a strong man to restore the mythical order, and in a related vein
b. The near and total fed up-ness with the notion that people who are unlike them actually exist (er., that would be everyone non-white), and may actually have found ways to carve out a living.
Now a bunch of factors have produced (a). That would be living in a rural area, owning big guns, dropping out of school, doing drugs (or relatedly, doing religion), having children out of wedlock, living on government handouts and subsidies (that would be pretty much ALL rural and blue collar in America). And a bunch of factors have produced (b), i.e., the non-white immigration since 1962, the creation of a large service sector and brainpower industry, and the republican party that pretty much existed to enrich a handful of people at the expense of others (economically), and keep the races suspicious and hateful of each other (socially).
Kalidan
29
Its harder to verify or quantify feelings such as powerlessness or fed-up-ness. So while you make interesting points, the article seems to depend on more verifiable variables, even if to you the are second order. To me, your variables are th vresult of the causes we see in this article.
I'm trying to understand the difference between the economic dysfunction plaguing Trump supporters - especially lack of economic mobility and education and feeling forgotten or left behind - and other Americans traditionally maligned as feeding off the system, welfare queens, and causing their own situations because of their lifestyles. While certainly some folks take advantage of the system in a negative way, most work at dead-end, low paying jobs, often two or three at a time, and lack education and economic mobility. This second group is chastised repeatedly for not having the moral fortitude to pull themselves up by their own bootstraps.
Why does one group have the high ground on sympathy and anger and not the other? The current system isn't functioning for any of them - they all work hard, are getting nowhere, and feel the world is leaving them behind. Yet I suspect the two groups are on different sides of the political divide (chasm?). Is is strictly race? Urban? Or is something else at work here? Just wondering.
Why does one group have the high ground on sympathy and anger and not the other? The current system isn't functioning for any of them - they all work hard, are getting nowhere, and feel the world is leaving them behind. Yet I suspect the two groups are on different sides of the political divide (chasm?). Is is strictly race? Urban? Or is something else at work here? Just wondering.
46
This chasm has existed for a long time. Racism plays a big part, but the key to understanding it lies in their answer to the census question, "American." These are folks who feel that, all things being equal, they are entitled to welfare and subsidies and good paying jobs before anyone else as it is their birthright. The others - immigrants and non-whites - do not deserve such things as they are not really "Americans," and to the extent that they benefit from such things it is a theft of what is rightfully for "Americans."
Put slightly differently, this is a mind set that does not accept the notion of pure meritocracy whereby an immigrant or his child who work just as hard as a natural born citizen whose family goes back generations deserve exactly the same rewards. The latter always deserves a leg up, while the former should know his place.
Put slightly differently, this is a mind set that does not accept the notion of pure meritocracy whereby an immigrant or his child who work just as hard as a natural born citizen whose family goes back generations deserve exactly the same rewards. The latter always deserves a leg up, while the former should know his place.
4
They have been divided by race since Reconstruction as a distraction to what was going on economically in this country. Bernie Sanders understands this. Dr. King understood it as well and when he threatened THAT status quo he was murdered. As long as people are distracted by blaming the 'other' that is kept alive these days by hate radio and Faux news, by institutionalized ignorance, and generations of the same feeding the minds of their young, those who own the "means of production" continue to profit on the backs of the poor.
Meanwhile, somebody is running for School Board in Texas who says she believes President Obama is a prostitute because someone she knows and respects told her so. School Board! And on it goes.
Meanwhile, somebody is running for School Board in Texas who says she believes President Obama is a prostitute because someone she knows and respects told her so. School Board! And on it goes.
It's interesting to note the negative correlation between Trump and his own "people": at a measure of -0.42, WASPs are apparently less likely to support TheDonald--strange, since only a few generations ago these other whites who now support him would not have even been allowed onto the grounds of one of his country clubs.
This finding again shows, or at least suggests, that (1) the "white" majority is no more a monolithic entity than, say, the "brown" minority; (2) amazingly (or not), people will in fact vote against their own interests; and (3) voters, especially the undereducated, actually will "get fooled again." Sigh.
This finding again shows, or at least suggests, that (1) the "white" majority is no more a monolithic entity than, say, the "brown" minority; (2) amazingly (or not), people will in fact vote against their own interests; and (3) voters, especially the undereducated, actually will "get fooled again." Sigh.
24
You just made the argument that Trump supporters seem to disdain -- that they're getting fooled, that they vote against their own interests, that they are in effect too dumb to vote the 'right' way. Says the elite.
Who are you (or me) to judge what their interests are? That Trump's supporters doesn't know what they're interests are? This is the condescending attitude 'they' seem to be complaining out -- and I can't blame them for that.
We Americans have gotten way too judgemental over the years, and now it includes moral judgements as well. Hard-hearted, too.
Who are you (or me) to judge what their interests are? That Trump's supporters doesn't know what they're interests are? This is the condescending attitude 'they' seem to be complaining out -- and I can't blame them for that.
We Americans have gotten way too judgemental over the years, and now it includes moral judgements as well. Hard-hearted, too.
One of the delicious ironies of this is that those who have just high-school diplomas and voted for Republicans for so many years are also the ones that have been economically marginalized by Republican policies that increase the gap between rich and poor. Those are now the ones involved in bringing down the Republican party. The sad part is that these people who have been drawn to the Donald still believe that it's the Democrat's fault that they have been marginalized.
319
US experience since the 1940s teaches that people like a system with secure jobs and a sense of economic fairness along with high prices much more than they like a system with low prices, economic inequity, and no jobs. This explains the appeal of both Trump and Sanders.
The present unsettled period will not end until the whole world is fair and secure. These are the Middle Ages of world history.
The present unsettled period will not end until the whole world is fair and secure. These are the Middle Ages of world history.
9
As far as declaring ancestry, as with so many people whose ancestors have lived in the US for six or more generations, I simply can't label my ancestry. I know there's some Irish or maybe English and German and African-American or maybe that's simply African and happened before my ancestors ever left Europe and who knows what else? The long line of mothers and fathers that have led to me didn't keep a DNA registry. Except for African, what does any of it mean anyway? England hasn't always been England and Germany hasn't always been Germany.
I teach adult immigrants, and I wonder what Central American students would claim as their ancestry. They speak the language of the conquerors, but their physical characteristics overwhelmingly suggest Mayan or some other Indian DNA. They're more American than I am, for sure.
And the last time I looked at a map, the Americas stretched from one pole to the other. In Central and South America, students are taught that America is one continent, not two. In Russia, they see Eurasia, not Europe and Asia. The whole idea of continents is not universally agreed on. But everywhere except in the US, people understand that "US" and "America" are not synonymous. The term "American" doesn't tell us much.
I teach adult immigrants, and I wonder what Central American students would claim as their ancestry. They speak the language of the conquerors, but their physical characteristics overwhelmingly suggest Mayan or some other Indian DNA. They're more American than I am, for sure.
And the last time I looked at a map, the Americas stretched from one pole to the other. In Central and South America, students are taught that America is one continent, not two. In Russia, they see Eurasia, not Europe and Asia. The whole idea of continents is not universally agreed on. But everywhere except in the US, people understand that "US" and "America" are not synonymous. The term "American" doesn't tell us much.
26
The sad irony is that while this demographic would benefit most from a government using public works and social programs to counterbalance the negative effects resulting from the modernization of our capitalist economy, this is one of the very things they oppose the most. Instead their hope is to elect an authoritarian government that will reverse all the recent (national and international) economic changes, and bring them back to the good old days.
In other words, they don't want to be helped through the transition, they just want to go back to how things were - and, unfortunately, bring everyone back with them. This is heartbreaking, because you just can't go back in time...
It's compassion they need, not contempt. Please let them accept that they need help, and let's elect a government that can provide that help.
In other words, they don't want to be helped through the transition, they just want to go back to how things were - and, unfortunately, bring everyone back with them. This is heartbreaking, because you just can't go back in time...
It's compassion they need, not contempt. Please let them accept that they need help, and let's elect a government that can provide that help.
154
Wonderful empathy here! Bless you!
3
Sebastien: I think your comment is one of the most compassionate and empathetic I have ever seen in a discussion of this type. I agree with you.
Excellent reporting!
One of the things that impressed me, when reading the article, was that these people who support trump have hardly moved around much.
Living in different parts of the country, being exposed to people of different cultures, races, religions, languages, along with going off to college where one is exposed to new ideas, new people, new opportunities to empathize with others... All of these experiences, which are important, I would assert, for living in our wonderfully rich multicultural country, are unlikely for individuals with the characteristics described in this very helpful article.
So trump has tuned into, for the most part, a demographic tragically bereft of experiences which expand one's horizons and underlie empathy with differences.
Let me give three examples of the opposite from my own life. By the time I was 8 years old, I had lived in 6 different communities. My best friend in first grade was little Enrique who spoke only Spanish when his family moved in across the street. My best friend at 8 was Jewish. Her grandparents, my wonderful Bubba and Bubbi lived directly across the street and her family right behind them.
I look back and realize the extent to which I was blessed, at such an early age with experiences which laid the groundwork for my love of others from different races, cultures, religions, walks of life. You name it!
When Dems hold conventions, it takes my breath away to see the diversity! I think: These are my people!
One of the things that impressed me, when reading the article, was that these people who support trump have hardly moved around much.
Living in different parts of the country, being exposed to people of different cultures, races, religions, languages, along with going off to college where one is exposed to new ideas, new people, new opportunities to empathize with others... All of these experiences, which are important, I would assert, for living in our wonderfully rich multicultural country, are unlikely for individuals with the characteristics described in this very helpful article.
So trump has tuned into, for the most part, a demographic tragically bereft of experiences which expand one's horizons and underlie empathy with differences.
Let me give three examples of the opposite from my own life. By the time I was 8 years old, I had lived in 6 different communities. My best friend in first grade was little Enrique who spoke only Spanish when his family moved in across the street. My best friend at 8 was Jewish. Her grandparents, my wonderful Bubba and Bubbi lived directly across the street and her family right behind them.
I look back and realize the extent to which I was blessed, at such an early age with experiences which laid the groundwork for my love of others from different races, cultures, religions, walks of life. You name it!
When Dems hold conventions, it takes my breath away to see the diversity! I think: These are my people!
182
In 1916, the life experience of many Americans was what is now being described here. WWI & WWII forced Americans into the greater world. Much has been written about the impact of those experiences. The "greatest generation" is now dying out. Now, there are apparently many with limited exposures to diversity of thought & culture who are vulnerable to Trumpism.
Hear hear! That seems to me the critical difference - a desperately provincial upbringing. If a rolling stone gathers no moss, the ones rooted in their rural hometown are fairly covered with it.
I am not a Trump supporter. I am a profesional with a graduate degree and I answer "American" on ethnicity questons posed by the census bureau. It doesnt represent a nativist or America First sentiment. And I am well aware of the role that immigration has played and continues to play in our country. But in my case I just dont see the relevance of listing off a half dozen European countries that my ancestors used to live in 200, 300, 400 years ago. To focus on it seems like ethnic determinism.
Ive lived in Europe and the Middle East. I've travelled widely around the world. In all these places I'm referred to as "American." And I'm sticking with that.
Ive lived in Europe and the Middle East. I've travelled widely around the world. In all these places I'm referred to as "American." And I'm sticking with that.
41
Yes, but to be precise, you come from North American not Central or South, so your ethnicity is North American. This is how Central and South Americans refer to gringos like you. In revolutionary Cuba, Venezuela and Sandinista Nicaragua, you are an Imperialist Yanqui worthy of suspicion.
7
I seriously never knew that "American" was a category on the Census. I'm racially mixed so my issue was having to just choose one. Finally, after much fighting, I can choose Black and White. American is a given, or should be.
Thoreau said that the most reactionary social and political views are found not on the frontier, but in the parts of the country where the action once was and has got up and gone somewhere else.
On the ground observation shows that these places export a big part of their youth, who change the world - somewhere else.
Behold also an ingrained suspicion of education and intellect, gov't authority and outsiders. These places tend to be geographically, culturally and socially isolated, have an older population, and tend to wish that the rest of the world would just go away, never having had much interest in it anyway.
It's all downstream of who settled these places originally and the type of economy that developed.
On the ground observation shows that these places export a big part of their youth, who change the world - somewhere else.
Behold also an ingrained suspicion of education and intellect, gov't authority and outsiders. These places tend to be geographically, culturally and socially isolated, have an older population, and tend to wish that the rest of the world would just go away, never having had much interest in it anyway.
It's all downstream of who settled these places originally and the type of economy that developed.
12
Yes, isn't it bizarre: The type of person Trump would label a loser is the type of person mostly likely to vote for him. A pretty clear index of their ignorance is their assumption he will do something to actually improve their job prospects or welfare. In fact, Trump doesn't even plan to use them to build the wall along our southern border. He plans to use Mexican labor.
313
I hear a simple message in Trump's speeches. He tells people that America has lost its greatness. To make America great again, the nation must become rich again (in wealth) and he is the only man who can make America rich again which will have a trickle down effect on all population. The reason he considers himself qualified is because he thinks himself as a successful businessman and is 'very rich' himself.
He also says that only business skills are necessary to be a President. Not political skills. He has 100% of business skill. Washington politicians spend all their time planning for reelection once in congress and forget to do the 'peoples' work for them. And this is a fact.
Trump, in my opinion, will win in November. Then all the people will learn over the next 4 years if he can enrich America and thereby its population who buy into his message or he ruins the country as all demagogues before him have done.
Time will tell.
He also says that only business skills are necessary to be a President. Not political skills. He has 100% of business skill. Washington politicians spend all their time planning for reelection once in congress and forget to do the 'peoples' work for them. And this is a fact.
Trump, in my opinion, will win in November. Then all the people will learn over the next 4 years if he can enrich America and thereby its population who buy into his message or he ruins the country as all demagogues before him have done.
Time will tell.
3
I consider Donald Trump a 21st century version of Huey Long. Unfortunately, he seems a perfect fit for the culture we now have in the USA--one that has become ever more coarse and ignorant during my lifetime (I'm 60).
I would take exception to your assumption that checking "American" on the census form automatically means one is a hick. Most white people in the Southern states ancestors, while coming from the UK, arrived in the 17th and 18th centuries, so it would be quite a stretch to still check "English", "Scottish", "Welsh", or "Scotch-Irish" on a 2010 census form. Also, many people have multiple ancestries, all from Europe. For people with more than two ancestries, checking one box is tough. My wife has ancestry from six European countries--what box should she check? And by the way, I'm 100% Serbian, but consider myself an American, even when I travel to Serbia.
I would take exception to your assumption that checking "American" on the census form automatically means one is a hick. Most white people in the Southern states ancestors, while coming from the UK, arrived in the 17th and 18th centuries, so it would be quite a stretch to still check "English", "Scottish", "Welsh", or "Scotch-Irish" on a 2010 census form. Also, many people have multiple ancestries, all from Europe. For people with more than two ancestries, checking one box is tough. My wife has ancestry from six European countries--what box should she check? And by the way, I'm 100% Serbian, but consider myself an American, even when I travel to Serbia.
125
Huey was more benevolent!
Yes, shades of Huey, but Huey was a bit more benevolent. :)
1
Dobrivoje! As a Serb you can then thank Hillary for convincing her husband, then President Bill, to conduct a "humanitarian bombing campaign" of Kosovo, along with NATO, to "help" resolve the conflict…a foreign policy disaster that still resonates throughout your country. Trump has no solutions, and unfortunately, neither does Hillary. But this is irrelevant to the bigger question: how will Americans of all stripes and ethnicities survive the coming economic debacle that is about to descend upon us, that the Brotherhood of Oligarchs (to which Trump & Hillary belong) are mercilessly forcing down our throats, as they loot and rob the rest of the country blind?
An interesting conflation of very disparate sources. The problems with describing oneself as an "American" as opposed to "English"'or "German" are that the overwhelming number Caucasians in this country are a mixture of European and Balkan people dating back more generations than most families have records. The authors have managed to construe "American" as code for "white, poor, stupid, Evangelical, Anglo-whatever, loser". Were this piece the work of "Conservatives" it would be characterized by a long string of nouns ending in "ist" or "ism", rather than stereotype posing as deep analysis. "Americans" and almost ANY hyphenated group on this country share the same problems----marginal jobs, marginal education and an entire litany of other disadvantages. Their chief differences are how and by whom they are manipulated people professing to work in their best interest.
17
Actually, the authors are just using Census data, so these are Census categories. You can make of them what you wish. Interpretations belong to the authors but the data belong to the Census and it's respondents.
7
Many of the hyphenated-Americans living in Northern Virginia do have marginal jobs - but they value education and they very much value their children. These children very often work hard in school, go to college (that their parents scrape to pay for) and are successful professionals. There is upward mobility in this country - IF you have an education, and the children of 1st generation immigrants prove it.
1
This clearly indicates that the main factors that determine support for Trump are not economic but cultural: loss of one's identity in the increasingly global, complex, and interconnected world. This the ridiculousness of the often-heard claim by faux liberals that Trump supporters vote "against their own interests". Their interests are not predominantly economic. They want a strong, white, Christian America. They want to be proud of being Americans because they have nothing else to be proud of in their lives. They want the rest of the world to leave them alone. If they could they would shut down Google, block all immigration, shut down all philosophy, humanities,nand theoretical science university departments, and outlaw any entertainment that rises above the level of "Apprentice".
24
The Apprentice was actually a pretty intelligent show.
But I loathe the Donald now,.
But I loathe the Donald now,.
2
Lack of a high school degree - American (mixed early European pioneer) ancestry - mobile homes - that all summarized where I spent my early childhood in rural Kentucky. Those people know their quality of life - from employment to health - is going down but because of low levels of education and lack of travel they don't understand why. They're drawn to simple sounding answers that educated people Blue and Red know aren't realistic or even needed. They are both the biggest victims yet most ardent defenders of the American System.
591
Let us hope their children are actually being educated about the larger world.
1
Given the group's general educational attainment, perhaps this current-day "know nothing" movement could call itself the no-nothings.
obama was full of simple sounding too. so was mlk, jr. so is hilary.
Wow, it's time to beat up on the only demographic on which it is socially permissible to do so: poor, uneducated whites (many of whom live in mobile homes!). Their problems - and dysfunctions - like many other demographics, seem to result primarily from poverty. I think the Times would prefer us think it's innate.
27
"Beat up" pretty low self esteem it seems. All this articles does is note the correlation of lower education levls, whiteness, employment issues and being a Trump supporter. You are making the correlation of some sort of chastizing going on. That second step is your assumption not the articles.
11
succinctly excellent comment. Mary Lynch Mobilia
1
This election has reminded me of a book I read in college, Crane Brinton's "The Anatomy of Revolution" (Vintage Books: 1965). This is a classic study of the English, French, American, and Russian revolutions. The thread that connected all of these revolutions is the fact that they were made by middle class people who were frustrated by a generations-long decline in their prospects (as an aside, the American one is the most difficult to understand because of confounding factors). While the Trump constituency is less middle class, their prospects have declined long-term because of declining union density in the manufacturing sector and the trade deals that cost them their jobs, even as they shifted opportunity up the economic ladder. This is what characterized the Reagan Democrats and now the Trump Republicans, as the voting in Michigan showed. I suspect Sanders' Political Revolution is a similar revolt but especially of young and educated people who have experienced a similar diminishment of prospects -- the ratio of actual prospects to expected prospects. I think this is the volatile mix we are seeing today. It shows that our nation's social contract has not just frayed but has broken, and we see that especially after the tide went out after 2007. Sanders' policies, if they lead to the growth projections famously being debated in economics circles now, might close the economic growth gap that has been building for decades (at least 35 years) and reduce this explosive tension.
95
And yet they hate unions. They also really believe that educated people don't know more than they do. They think they are smart enough. And sometimes, even the ones who try to do better are so far behind that it's difficult. They think if they only try harder, somehow it will be okay, but they lack study skills. I think the one place where Sanders is wrong is the emphasis on higher ed. It has to start sooner. It has to start practically in the womb. Better to have brilliant teachers and a 10-2 ratio. Because by the time they drop out of high school, for too many it's far too late. So they go to college and the for-profit nature of even public community college throws them online, even though they often don't own computers or have reliable internet. There they are too often faceless and lost. By that time, they have families and sporadic jobs. They are set up to fail. Of course, some soar. But too many like the birds in the Valdez oil mess, are stuck to the ground. However, KY's guy charged with merging community and technical education made $6.9 million over his 14 year career ruining the community structure that had made it successful. We've lost a generation.
28
Well stated, the Democratic party and Obama who looked so good the day he was elected then jumped center right and did nothing that was not watered down to the point of uselessness, should take note. They frittered away 8 years with no accomplishments other than appeasement.
The only good news- this has to mean the TPP is toast.
When the house is on fire cutting the grass is pointless, unless you want the property to look good on the news. Obama was such a disappointment.
The only good news- this has to mean the TPP is toast.
When the house is on fire cutting the grass is pointless, unless you want the property to look good on the news. Obama was such a disappointment.
"The economic problems that line up with strong Trump support have long been in the making, and defy simple fixes." For those areas in which there are large numbers of Trump supporters and also a need for infrastructure improvements, perhaps it would be good to invest in hiring people to maintain roads, bridges and other critical infrastructure. Perhaps laying fiber optic connections would be an economically viable means of providing employment in some of these areas. This might also improve access to information and education and support increased economic vitality. Many Republicans and Democrats in Congress might support efforts to provide employment opportunities and support economic growth in areas with high numbers of Trump voters, given the consternation these voters are causing both parties. If Trump were to be our next President, I wonder if he could think of a way to justify vetoing such measures.
67
Republicans were given many chances to support improvements to our national infrastructure and turned them almost all down. Their priorities where, first, to deny Obama re-election (at which they failed dismally) and then to cut taxes for the rich and to deny women the right to control their own bodies.
8
Fine article and good comment. The problem of course is that capitalists will not fix the roads and lay fiber optic cables in coal country. Not the capitalist fault, capitalism is like water, it flows to the money. Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, the Koch brothers are not in the public infrastructure business, especially in coal country and Flint, MI. You are not going to get rich there. Here in this country if it cannot be done by capitalist, it is not worth doing at all. We can never devise a tax system for public good, public health. It is going to get worse. The commenter here is a good person. Please run for office. I will send you money. When I was laid off at sixty, my boss began the you have been thrown under bus, here is your severance, and he actually said "tell all your friends to fasten their seat belts"-whatever that meant. On that day, in that minute, baby boomer hippie that I am, so help me and forgive me, if you had handed me a ballot with Trump's name on it, I would have voted for him. Yes, indeed, good people everywhere....fasten those seat belts.
One of the things that stand out here is the need for jobs, for more meaningful work, for the dignity of work that comes from effort extended and compensation, really good wages gained. yes we have lost that for those who work with their hands. And it appears that only Trump is offering to do something dramatic about that. Have we as a nation abandoned this quest? Is it gone for good for cause or is it gone because those who prosper off of high tech and finance don't wish to provide ideas, energy and capital to do something about it. Unfortunately when large groups and their needs and ambitions are abandoned, they then abandon those who pretend to be their leaders. Thus Trump.
39
"And yet it appears that only Trump is offering to do something dramatic about that [creating more American jobs that are meaningful work with really good wages done with one's hands]."
What specifically is Trump offering to do? Make really really great jobs? A fantastic number of them? That's a con, not a specific achievable policy.
What specifically is Trump offering to do? Make really really great jobs? A fantastic number of them? That's a con, not a specific achievable policy.
3
"Old economy," "high school diploma," "not working," "mobile homes" all indicate to a degree the failure of the public system to provide adequate support for the vulnerable in our society: a safety net and retraining for old economy workers without jobs, a lack of affordable college education as well as a crumbling public high school education, dearth of public assistantance for housing and related health care, etc.
Then, this rise of Trumpism is not just a political phenomena whipped up a cynical Republican party, or crazy tea party, or even surreal reality tv, but rather an indictment of out failing public system. A result of America not helping and not taking care of those it needs to.
Then, this rise of Trumpism is not just a political phenomena whipped up a cynical Republican party, or crazy tea party, or even surreal reality tv, but rather an indictment of out failing public system. A result of America not helping and not taking care of those it needs to.
346
Actually, the rise of Trumpism is a direct result of cynical Republican politics and governance. Since the rise of Reaganism and Supply-Side economics and socio-conservatism, the Republican Party and it's far right have used used the "White, no high school diploma," "Mobile home," "Old economy jobs" voters to support them by, in fact, supporting growth for the 1% of America and refusing to provide investment, jobs and growth in the America. A perfect example is the Republican's intransigence and disparate effort in Congress to kill any program that supports growth in America. This is why I converted from Republican to Democrat with the rise of the Newt Gingrich/Rush Limbaugh/Ultra-Neo Conservative/Evangelical Republicans.
47
I agree with you 100%. We have been taking care of the worlds problems long enough. It's time to take care of our own for awhile. I'm tired of the middle east and all its problems. I'm 58 years old and it seems we have been throwing money, resources and lives at that region of the world for as long as I can remember. In return we get nothing. It's time to invest our time and money here.
22
Let's connect up your paragraphs. So the rise of Trumpism is owing to "the failure of the public system to provide adequate support for the vulnerable in our society: a safety net and retraining for old economy workers." And which politicians have voted again and again to starve and shrink this "public system" so that there is no adequate safety net? Yes, the "cynical Republican party" which birthed, in the night, the "crazy tea party." There.
4
One of the strongest cases I've read for finishing high school and, if possible, getting a college education or advanced voc tech education. And an implicit indictment of the often far too high cost of the higher ed.
42
None of these is a very strong predictor (a correlation in the 0.4-0.6 range has only moderate significance). even the highest of these weak correlations tells us nothing we didn't already know.
A much more interesting and useful analysis would involve identifying the factors that
- are common to i.e. strong predictors of support for both Trump and Sanders, his counterpart on the other side who also appeals strongly to white males of moderate incomes, and
- are not common i.e. strong negative predictors of support for both Trump and racist candidates.
Try this kind of serious, sophisticated analysis and tell us what you find.
A much more interesting and useful analysis would involve identifying the factors that
- are common to i.e. strong predictors of support for both Trump and Sanders, his counterpart on the other side who also appeals strongly to white males of moderate incomes, and
- are not common i.e. strong negative predictors of support for both Trump and racist candidates.
Try this kind of serious, sophisticated analysis and tell us what you find.
22
The correlation analysis that the writers used ought to be supplemented by multiple regression, which is not hard to do once you have computed correlations. That method will control for confounding sources of variance, to which this commenter alludes.
4
He is not a career politician. He is a career opportunist, seeing an opening and taking advantage of it for his own self-aggrandizement.
The plight of the non-intellectual, predominately white, America-First-indoctrinated, working class population is justifiably angry at the failure of the traditional republican leadership to "fix what's wrong" in their lives, to keep America as Number One in the world (whatever that means) and to ensure their psychological well-being. That's where Trump lives;he fills that hunger for a strong, belligerent, simple solutions to all major problems-type of leader. Uncomplicated and full of strong arm rhetoric, he offers the appearance of the American ideal -- and his supporters mistakenly believe that all his misinformed and fabricated bravado will magically transform their lives and make their sorry dreams come true.
A rude awakening awaits if Donald fulfills his quest. America is not alone in the world. Globalization is the new normal. Technology and science and applicable education and marketable business skills are essential to individual economic growth. Ignorance and backward thinking are anathema to progress. The Donald cannot change those facts.
His supporters will learn...it's not The Government that's to blame for whatever ails them. And it's not any one President who can fix it. Take a long look in the mirror.
The plight of the non-intellectual, predominately white, America-First-indoctrinated, working class population is justifiably angry at the failure of the traditional republican leadership to "fix what's wrong" in their lives, to keep America as Number One in the world (whatever that means) and to ensure their psychological well-being. That's where Trump lives;he fills that hunger for a strong, belligerent, simple solutions to all major problems-type of leader. Uncomplicated and full of strong arm rhetoric, he offers the appearance of the American ideal -- and his supporters mistakenly believe that all his misinformed and fabricated bravado will magically transform their lives and make their sorry dreams come true.
A rude awakening awaits if Donald fulfills his quest. America is not alone in the world. Globalization is the new normal. Technology and science and applicable education and marketable business skills are essential to individual economic growth. Ignorance and backward thinking are anathema to progress. The Donald cannot change those facts.
His supporters will learn...it's not The Government that's to blame for whatever ails them. And it's not any one President who can fix it. Take a long look in the mirror.
257
Well said - thank you for your comment!
4
Unfortunately, when an authoritarian gains power and runs up against the fact that his simple ideas don't actually improve the lives of his voters, he doesn't say "Sorry" and resign. He tends to stay in power by turning attention elsewhere, using scapegoats and involving his country in war.
1
Trump voters are poorly educated, resentful people who have been left behind by the loss of manufacturing jobs over the last 30 years. They are now hopeful that a rich conman can fix their problems by removing immigrants and making sure blacks know their place. All of this is just another spectacle for the media that is already salivating about a brokered republican convention. In the meantime, the Koch brothers have $800 million ready to buy the next election, and the beat goes on.
382
Chris Matthews has been salivating about it for awhile now. I'll never forget him so depressed when one of his guests told him on a show from the 2012 campaign that if Romney wins whatever the next contest was, he would slide to the nomination. Chris groaned. Yes, because he is a political junkie AND his ratings would slide.
As it was, Romney did win the nomination but it was a long way on the clown car to the eventual nomination.
All that being said, I'd rather listen to Trump, Rubio, Kasich and Cruz than Rick Santorum. Just as long as a Democrat eventually wins.
As it was, Romney did win the nomination but it was a long way on the clown car to the eventual nomination.
All that being said, I'd rather listen to Trump, Rubio, Kasich and Cruz than Rick Santorum. Just as long as a Democrat eventually wins.
story from 2008:
Obama was explaining his difficulty with winning over working-class voters in Pennsylvania and the Midwest, saying they have become frustrated with economic conditions:
"And it's not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations,"
Obama was explaining his difficulty with winning over working-class voters in Pennsylvania and the Midwest, saying they have become frustrated with economic conditions:
"And it's not surprising then that they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations,"
3
The Koch brothers couldn't buy the last two elections, nor - it seems - can they buy this one. (The same goes for Sheldon Adelson et al). They most likely won't be around for the next one in 2020 either … it is the end of an era!
Trying to understand the Trump phenomena and this analysis is helpful. Will be working on a "Trumpism" definition and I'm interested in the transfer of skills that allows one to succeed as a swindler and con artist in the private sector and how those same traits (a "Dark Triad" personality) apply in a public forum.
I believe you would find "White, no high school diploma," as well as living in a mobile home and "Old economy" jobs also over-represented in the viewership of reality TV shows.
I believe you would find "White, no high school diploma," as well as living in a mobile home and "Old economy" jobs also over-represented in the viewership of reality TV shows.
80
Well.....maybe it depends on which reality shows.
I stopped watching most of them around 5 or 6 years ago but some reality shows are on a higher scale. Everything is not Honey Boo Boo or Duck Dynasty.
I enjoyed Trump's Apprentice series until he became a birther. It was interesting to see how the teams worked together to sell or create something. Survivor was good for the first 5-6 years to learn about the different personalities in this country -- before it became a showcase for bathing suits and pretty faces.
The Amazing Race is still interesting, too, because they go to countries around the world.
What reality TV did was help normalize queerness. We saw gay Richard Hatch win the first episode of Survivor and numerous gay couples on other reality shows. America's Next Top Model, Top Chef, Project Runway and Queer Eye For the Straight Guy are/were other reality shows which showed the diversity of America, including queerness.
So all reality TV is not equal.
What is so wonderful about this country is that if you like Honey Boo Boo, then watch it. If you like Project Runway, watch that. But in reality, there is a gulf between the two and someone like Trump brings it out.
I stopped watching most of them around 5 or 6 years ago but some reality shows are on a higher scale. Everything is not Honey Boo Boo or Duck Dynasty.
I enjoyed Trump's Apprentice series until he became a birther. It was interesting to see how the teams worked together to sell or create something. Survivor was good for the first 5-6 years to learn about the different personalities in this country -- before it became a showcase for bathing suits and pretty faces.
The Amazing Race is still interesting, too, because they go to countries around the world.
What reality TV did was help normalize queerness. We saw gay Richard Hatch win the first episode of Survivor and numerous gay couples on other reality shows. America's Next Top Model, Top Chef, Project Runway and Queer Eye For the Straight Guy are/were other reality shows which showed the diversity of America, including queerness.
So all reality TV is not equal.
What is so wonderful about this country is that if you like Honey Boo Boo, then watch it. If you like Project Runway, watch that. But in reality, there is a gulf between the two and someone like Trump brings it out.
7
Think Theater! Theatrics. Trump is all about theater and theatrics. Plays well on TV. Obviously translates to tweets and large rallies.
Isn't this a description of the tea-party demographic. It's what Cruz, Rubio, Lee, and company wanted: to stir up the power of resentment. The profess not to like the results they helped to produce.
192
Trump supporters seem like losers to me.
74
They are voters. Both parties have taken them for granted. Republicans and Democrats are going to reap the seeds that they have some.
9
It would seem that there is no end to the Trump supporters.
So then, what is the plan winning Americans?
So then, what is the plan winning Americans?
And Trump makes them feel like winners. They're voters, are they not? Could not a better candidate feel their pain as well? How snobby can Dems be and still win? Will we find out?
Love it how Trump voters think their ancestors spontaneously sprang up out of the soil somewhere in the USA. They can't even admit - or maybe they really don't know - that their ancestors were immigrants. Perhaps a high school diploma would help...
426
I think that's not quite fair. I think they are mostly saying that they are a mix of European ethnicities. Most people in the country are not so attached to one country of origin (Irish, German, etc) as many in NYC seem to be.
10
Trillian: the reason many folks check "American" as their ethnicity is because our ancestors have lived on the North American continent for so many centuries that they now identify with no other ethnicity other than"American". As an American Midwesterner I speak from personal experience: all four of my grandparents bloodlines arrived in North America at least 100 years before the American Revolution took place, and I am not unique for my region of the United States. My ethnic group can be faulted for a lot of reasons, but not because "We don't know where we come from".
7
The Canadian census bureau, www.statcan.ca, reported that in the last census in 2006 32.6% of the citizens reported themselves as "Canandians". In your thought process they must have arrived before our Native Americans.
"What they have in common is that they have largely missed the generation-long transition of the United States away from manufacturing and into a diverse, information-driven economy deeply intertwined with the rest of the world." The problem is the supporters assume that Trump is their savior when in reality, Trump (or any politician) can do very little to alter the changes in the workplace.
323
Well, we could put a moratorium on new trade deals. They seem to be doing more harm than good. We could also start by not giving more "across the board" tax cuts, etc. that reward capital over labor and contribute to income inequality. While it is unlikely we will see the kind of manufacturing employing 1,000's of workers it seems like a good idea to maintain what we have. Manufacturing builds new wealth (see China) while service industries and finance (not so much). I think it is a mistake to view this as a problem specific to working class blue collar workers. While their incomes have declined over the last 30 years middle class income has stagnated. Work life is not that great for those that have made the transitioned to the so-called New Economy. Your annual review merit increase means maybe a 1-2% raise if you are lucky. For most no raise at all. Benefits like health insurance and pensions are eroding. Working people may have health insurance but they are sharing the cost of ever increasing premiums while paying $5,000 deductibles. 401k's work for high income individuals but not so much for others. This was all supposed to "lift all boats." It hasn't. When you have one group benefiting handily and another not at all the later feels taken advantage of.
63
Agree. All workers need to change with the times. My comment was not directed at blue collar workers (even though the article may have implied such).
2
Yes. It all may be inevitable but the people who pushed for the neoliberalism of the last few decades need to consider that logic and pure economic reasoning may not carry the day. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Boris Yeltsin called in Western advisers to help with the economy. The Western advisers recommended a meal of "cold turkey" free market economics. Hundreds of state run factories disappeared and millions of jobs and people's livelihood with them. The guess what... Putin. Just saying.
19
Trump scare me. This Republican will be voting for Marco Rubio
4
I wish you the best, but California does not vote until June. Rubio may well be toast by then. You could vote for his empty suit.
9
If Trump is the Republican nominee, who gets your vote?
5
Rubio is toast. Your party's nominee will be Trump unless the party elites hijack the convention and choose someone more to their liking. If that happens, we may see the GOP disintegrate entirely. The GOP made its bed and now has to sleep in it.
15
Is there a way to measure prevalence of authoritarian personalities in a county?
26
Indeed, politico did a small article on this idea: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/donald-trump-2016-authori...
2
Countries are ranked highest to lowest score
1 Shanghai-China
2 Hong Kong-China
3 Singapore
4 Japan
5 Korea
6 Finland
7 Canada
8 Chinese Taipei
9 Ireland
10 Poland
11 Estonia
12 Liechtenstein
14 New Zealand
15 Netherlands
16 Macao-China
17 Switzerland
18 Belgium
19 Viet Nam
20 Germany
21 France
22 Norway
23 United Kingdom
24 United States