With Cruz Up, Rubio Down, Where Does That Leave Donald Trump?

Mar 08, 2016 · 104 comments
Chris (CT)
If Cruz's so called surge amounts only to preventing Trump from getting much more rather than more delegates than anyone else, then Cruz is losing, not winning.
Montreal Moe (WestPark, Quebec)
What am I missing?
When Trump was surging we were told he had a very low ceiling but his ability to pick up votes from outside the political arena raised that ceiling.
Ted Cruz also has a low ceiling and there are no outsiders coming to his rescue.'The new Lord Protector has none of Cromwell's charm and charisma.
Bob Dowd (Chicago)
Trump still has the most wins, the most delegates, and the best shot at winning the nomination
Dan Stackhouse (NYC)
And, if there is any hope for America's future, he will not win the general election. We don't need a dumbed-down Mussolini for president, so as long as Trump loses, we'll be OK.
johnranta (hancock, nh)
Cruz would be far more disastrous for the country than Trump. When is the media going to focus on that?
Becky (Maryland)
Instead of picking up Jeb's voters, Rubio seems to have picked up Jeb's electoral cooties. Republican voters this year want to rebel against whatever the establishment wants them to do. When the establishment was trying to force them to vote for Jeb, they ran away from him. Now that the establishment has decided they should vote for Rubio, they're fleeing him. While the Republican primary has been troubling in many ways, you have to admit it's refreshing to see voters awaken to the fact that they are the ones with the actual power.
Linda (Oklahoma)
Where are the statesmen, the politicians who look for substance and not soundbites? Where are the politicians who want us to look for the better angels of our nature? Abraham Lincoln must be rolling over in his grave.
Capys (Brest)
According to me, a French living in France, Donald Trump is the most dangerous candidate due to his racist and disgusting statements about Muslims, about Latinos and so on… He refers, notably on twitter, to Mussolini, the "Duce", the leader of the fascist Italy, between 1922 and 1944, allied with Hitler in a policy including the mass deporation of Jews who lived in Italy during the Second World War. If he win, the USA will be the laughing stock of the World ! He looks like more a clown than a politician ! Therefore, If he would be elected, his policy could lead to an international conflict. If we don't learn from the mistakes of History, we are doomed to repeat them.
HGuy (<br/>)
Perhaps you should be worrying more about Marie Le Pen winning in your own country. She is far closer to the "Duce" than the Donald.
Hans (USA)
Ted Cruz was born in Canada of an American mother and a Cuban father. As such he was entitled to American citizenship because of his mother being American. Until he renounced his Canadian citizenship he was a Canadian born citizen. And if we follow the same logic, Ted Cruz also holds Cuban citizenship because his father was Cuban at the time of Ted's birth. He renounced his Canadian citizenship but sadly has yet to renounce his Cuban citizenship. It's high time for Ted to renounce his Cuban citizenship, especially if he holds aspirations of being our president.
Anne-Marie Hislop (Chicago)
True only if Cuba has the same rules on such things as does the US. I don't know Cuban citizenship law - do you?
Patrick (Long Island N.Y.)
Trump said he wanted to kill Terrorists families. Forgetting for a moment that those were families of a terrorist, the idea of killing families is a Mafia thing.

Everybody vote for anyone but Trump.

I don't want a Mafia wanna-be from a military school running the country.
Phil (nyc)
Cruz outperformed his polls in Louisiana, but is this indicative of a Cruz surge nationwide, or simply a neighboring-state effect? Cruz did best in western Louisiana along the Texas border, but Trump dominated in the eastern half of the state. Remember on Super Tuesday, that Cruz substantially outperformed his poll numbers in Texas, as well as Oklahoma, allowing him to win these states. But in other southern states like Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee, Cruz's final result was about in-line with where he was polling.

We should be able to find out shortly which of these possibilities is correct. If Cruz substantially outperforms expectations in Mississippi tomorrow (beating Trump, or within say 5% of him), then it really will look like Cruz is moving upwards. However, if Trump defeats him resoundingly, as polls suggest, then we can probably chalk up the Louisiana result as more of a neighboring-state boost than a nationwide surge.
Rick (New York, NY)
The last day of the Republican primary calendar is June 7. That's right, 3 more months of all this fun. A prediction: if Trump does not get to 1,237 delegates by the time all the votes are counted from those June 7 primaries, then he will be denied the nomination in Cleveland. Last week's mobilization of the Republican political, economic and foreign policy establishment against Trump makes three things crystal clear:

1. If the delegate math gives them any opening at all, the Republican establishment will do everything in their power to get a nominee acceptable to them, even at the cost of losing in November because Trump's supporters stay home or defect.
2. The party establishment is willing to at least consider making peace with Cruz if he winds up being their only chance to stop Trump. The party has a personal dislike of Cruz and is worried about the electoral impact of making him the nominee - but Trump represents a threat to the Republican Party's professed basic principles.
3. The party is more worried about Trump winning the Presidency than they are about him, or anyone else on their side, losing the election. They can change themselves, or at least their image, after losing, but they might not be able to change the perception that they will be stuck with as a result of having President Trump for at least 4, and possibly 8, years.
ThoughtBubble (New Jersey)
Where does that leave Trump?

In the same place he's always been: With no pathway to the nomination. Seriously, is all of this just media bluster? Trump cannot win 1237 delegates. He's underperforming in every primary and every caucus. Sure, he wins some states, then he loses some, but in all of them, he's not performing at a level that allows him to reach the magic 1237 delegates.
Ray Johanson (NYC)
I voted for Obama the last 2 times, but here are my reasons for voting Trump this time.

1 - I like an underdog. Trump was initially mocked by everyone.
2 - I hate Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz. Trump, on prime-time TV and before Republicans, called them out for killing thousands of Americans and wasting 2 trillion dollars in Iraq, summarizing: "Obviously, the war in Iraq was a BIG, FAT mistake."
3 - There is this silly Republican-establishment argument that W kept us safe AFTER 9/11. Trump analogized it to "saying the team scored 19 runs in the first inning, but after that we played well. I don’t think so."
4 - Trump is going to cut military spending. Every politician is bought by military contractors and protect pet military projects in their home states, even if useless. Trump is self-funding and isn't bought.
5 - Unlike any other Republican, Trump said on national TV at the debate that he will protect the good, non-abortion aspects of Planned Parenthood. Gutsy.
6 - Trump will build a wall. We are actually entitled to decide who gets to come into the country.
7 - Trump is right that DC politicians are useless. Time to blow up the establishments of both parties.
W (Houston, TX)
I like some of what Trump says, as you enumerated. But he has few specifics as to how he would do anything he claims to want to do, and is a habitual liar and obfuscator. And temperamentally, he is not fit to lead the free world. Finally, another Republican in the White House won't help, even if he doesn't have the neocons around him. I'll take the lesser of evils and vote for Hillary (or Bernie), thanks.
Jeff Atlas (San Francisco)
Does it matter to you that Trump is a liar? Politifact found that 70% of what he says are lies. Or worse, he believes his own inventions, like the celebrations in NJ after 9/11.

Does it matter that he is a egomaniac who has such a thin skin that he retaliates with insults to anything he views as a slight? And that he relishes any praise that he gets, even from Putin.

Do you care that he is not really self-funded? He has raised over $7,000,000 and he will repay the loan he made to his campaign.

Do you care that despite his repeated references to veterans, the Trump Foundation made virtually no contributions to veterans' programs. And not a single dollar to Wounded Warriors.

Do you care that he is a narcissist who only cares about himself? His constant references to polls and attendance is a way to measure his own worth. He has no interest in the people themselves.

I could go on.

You may want to send a message, but Trump is not the right messenger.
Dan Findlay (<br/>)
re #4 - Trump isn't nearly as rich as he claims; certainly not wealthy enough to snub the Big Money special interests. I suspect that if elected he would quickly become as beholden to the 1% as any politician we have "working for us" now.
jlasf (San Francisco)
Why has Trump stopped talking about Cruz's Canadian issues?

Theory: He is waiting for it to come down to a two-man race
and then he will skewer Cruz with it. He will probably take the
tack that a Democrat will challenge Cruz's eligibility.
Rick (New York, NY)
... and Trump wouldn't even be exaggerating in the least if he took that tack with Cruz. Florida congressman Alan Grayson, a Democrat, has said that if Cruz wins the Republican nomination, he will file a suit to contest Cruz's eligibility the day after the Republican convention ends.
blackmamba (IL)
Cruz is still the brilliant articulate amoral effete viper half-Cuban natural born citizen of Canada named Rafael Edward pretending to be macho Texas Ted.

Rubio is still an immature, ignorant, inexperienced, intemperate, fickle and cowardly parrot son of two Cubans named Marco Antonio.

Trump is still Trump while winning.

Kasich is still Kasich while losing.

And winning primaries and caucuses is not the same thing as losing them. It is arithmetic.
adara614 (North Coast)
The strongest candidates against Hillary:

1. Gov. Kasich

2. Sec. Clinton herself
Ken (Sydney)
You have to wonder if this is all playing out the way the Republicans want. Trump is the bad guy, Rubio pulls out, Cruz wins and Cruz is the good guy. The only problem is that Cruz is not a good guy.
DCBarrister (Washington, DC)
Where does that leave Donald Trump?
In the same place he was the last time Nate Cohn predicted Trump's demise.
In the LEAD.
CastleMan (Colorado)
Ted Cruz is not likable, not experienced, not competent, not reasonable, and not ready to be President. He would be worse for the GOP than Trump.
prj (Ruston, LA)
I suggest that the surge in support for Cruz between early voting and election day had a lot to do with the tv ads featuring the endorsement by Phil Robertson and Duck Dynasty.
Cybele Plantagenet (flying low)
Great...and another reason not to vote for him. Too bad the Duck Dynasty audience doesn't know what a hedge fund manager is.
Simon Sez (Maryland)
The strongest candidate against Hillary, the Democratic nominee unless things drastically change, would have been Rubio.

Either Cruz or Trump will be much easier to beat in a general election.

One is too oily, disgustingly "holy", the other a total buffoon who is becoming more and more pathetic in his pandering as the days pass.
Kali (San Jose)
The professional pundits and predictors have been wrong from the beginning about everything related to Trump, it's quite unclear why we should turn to them now to tell us what Trump is doing, why, and what it means. In reality, Trump is a brilliant politician, a politician defined as someone who aspires to attain and maintain elected office. True, Trump hasn't yet been elected but this is his first political election (for the U.S. presidency no less) and he is winning the Republican nomination (without anywhere near the amount of money as his competitors, including many of his now vanquished [former] competitors). Trump has in a matter of months feigned being a committed evangelical, being down with southern white blue collar workers, pretended to be racist, etc. Of course Trump is none of those things: he's a brilliant New York salesman (now politician). If Bernie Sanders is nominated, he'll kill Trump but unfortunately he'll lose to Hillary. Hillary, whose one of the least trusted people in America (lower than Trump), will be hammered daily about her support of the Iraq war, her of invading Libya and Syria, her support NAFTA, her support of the 1994 crime bill, her support of Amnesty-- all opposed by Trump. Trump will retire his feigned racist dog whistle and will become the anti-war, anti-trade, populist while painting Hillary (and first husband Bill) as corrupt and untrustworthy given emails, Clinton Foundation, and paid speeches for Goldman Sachs and others
slightlycrazy (northern california)
you really think trump will get that intelligent? i think he'll call her shrill and old-looking and not a ten, and then wonder why 99% of women vote for her when they could have him.
Kali (San Jose)
In other words, he will hand deliver the election to Hillary? Yea, that's highly unlikely. Trump doesn't need to "get that intelligent". Even his haters, don't deny he's a great salesman. The first rule in sales is to know your customer and to tailor your sales pitch to that audience. He's doing that in a remarkably effective right now, his audience being the Republican primary electorate. In the general election, the anti-war, anti-trade, and anti-illegal immigration message will play well with the "new market" which will include independents and Regan Republicans. Trump will attack Hillary for being dishonest, tolerating her husband's predations against women (Juanita Broderick, Kathleen Willey, Paula Jones, Elizabeth Ward Gracen, Sally Perdue, Connie Hamzy, Lencola Sullivan, Monica Lewinsky, Susan Whitacre, and his close personal relationship and overnight visits with convicted pedophile Jeffrey Epstein. Again, I'd prefer Bernie but Bernie is unwilling to raise these arguments.
M Street (Beltway)
Trump has the nomination no matter what and here's why: He'll offer the VP slot to perhaps Kasich (assuming Kasich wins Ohio) or most certainly Cruz before the convention in exchange for their delegates. Cruz knows Romney's plan to steal the nomination on the floor, and everyone hates Cruz, so Cruz will be shut out of nomination AND vp slot unless he accepts a deal from Trump. Trump and Cruz have a lot of policies in common, so it would make a formidable ticket.
W (Houston, TX)
It's amazing that Cruz, a Canadian who makes his living off (1) U.S. public sector and its benefits, and (2) Wall Street through his wife, is convincing voters that he's the one to correct the ills of both. And institute Christian Shariah law to boot. The brazen hypocrisy of it all (which has been covered previously by the NYT) is astounding.
LFA (Richmond, Ca)
The Republicans have almost no chance of stopping Trump. He's gonna win the vast majority of the remaining primaries and caucuses. The reason for Trump's pre-eminence is because the rest of the field is so splintered and so there remains a chance for the 3 remaining candidates to pool their delegates to stop Trump at the convention.

However, there is no way that Ted Cruz is going to step aside for anybody else; we're dealing with a sociopathic personality here. My guess is that Cruz throws in with Trump at the end—if the great one will have him. And again, I'm guessing, no he won't have him; a Trump-Cruz ticket would be electoral poison, but Trump will probably keep Cruz dangling until the last minute and the Cruz venom is spent.

Unless he exposes himself at Nancy Reagan's funeral, the official Republican nominee is going to be Trump. Maybe Susana Martinez for Veep.
Mary Kathleen Massey (gertrudesdottir) (Claremont CA (niceland))
As a Bernie supporter, I certainly hope he prevails in the primaries to the extent that his policies serve to influence those of Mrs. Clinton. I expect to have our concerns included in the ultimate Democrat platform.
Michael Mahler (Los Angeles)
Krump, Crubio, Trusich, Kasio--they're all the same once you get past their campaign spiels and personalities.
Lorem Ipsum (DFW, TX)
I've been binge-watching "The GOPeople v. D. J. Trump," and the most engaging character in the cast is Kato Kasich. But of course that's a bit part.
RC (MN)
It seems unlikely that a Republican cleric could win a general election. That leaves Trump if the Republicans are serious about the presidency.
Bob Bunsen (Portland, OR)
"It seems unlikely that a Republican cleric could win a general election."

I agree, but never underestimate the power of the American Taliban.
Stephen (<br/>)
Trump is still the man to beat because the evangelical vote won't make much of a difference any more and saints preserve us if it does!
JEG (New York)
This article was started before the most recent set of polling data out of Michigan was released yesterday and today which shows Trump (38.5), Cruz (20.5), Kaisch (20.0), and Rubio (13.3). The cutoff for delegates in Michigan is 15 percent, so Rubio is yet again in danger of receiving no delegates. It is impossible to imagine anyway in which Rubio can salvage this campaign, even if he should somehow manage to win Florida, which is in doubt. More importantly to him, this campaign may have done lasting damage to Rubio's political prospects. Meanwhile, Trump is poised to have a good night, while Cruz will still need to show he can defeat Trump in big blue-leaning states, which will be necessary for him to capture the nomination.
M Street (Beltway)
My call: Trump hits 40% tomorrow in Michigan. Kasich will finish 2nd.
Lee Harrison (Albany)
As far as Rubio's personal prospects, it's obvious to me why the voters don't like him; why vote for a billionaire's lap dog who has nothing else going for him?

Frankly Rubio is the best argument for Trump the Republican establishment could have chosen.

As far as the nomination, Trump or Cruz destroy the GOP -- though in different ways.
Bob Bunsen (Portland, OR)
"More importantly to him, this campaign may have done lasting damage to Rubio's political prospects."

Rubio stated in October 2015 or thereabouts that he would NOT run for reelection to his Senate seat. It's also arguable that his political career is what's done lasting damage to his political prospects. He's considered by many to be an empty suit - or, as one writer said, "a brain in search of an idea."
rjd (nyc)
Because of Mr. Trumps fumbling, bumbling, and flip-flopping through another debate he has ceded the momentum of the race to Mr. Cruz. A lot will delend on what happens in Michigan tomorrow which will set the tone for the March 15th showdown in Florida and Ohio.

Mr. Trump not only needs a strong showing in Michigan on Tuesday. He then needs to have an equally strong debate performance at the end of the week in the lead up to the all important Ides of March contest.

The pressure is on Mr. Trump to up his game dramatically if he wants to win this contest outright. If he fails to respond to challenges & questions adequately, and if he continues to rely on childish insults to deflect his policy shortcomings, then he will be exposed as just another empty suit full of bluster.

Mr. Trump could conceivably put it all away by March 15th but if he fails to improve his performance in the short term, he will then face a contested Convention down the road.

The ball is completely in his court. The pressure is on. Let's see if Mr. Trump can rise to the occasion.
DCBarrister (Washington, DC)
The pressure isn't on Trump because Ted Cruz can't win enough of the remaining states to stop him. Cruz can win Utah, Idaho and maybe Missouri, but the well goes dry from there.
rjd (nyc)
The key issue is whether or not he can put it away.....ie: achieve the knockout blow that he himself claims that he needs in order to take the decision away from the "judges" at the Convention. Yes, Cruz can keep nipping away at the heels of Trump but that will prevent Trump from getting to the magic number of 1237 delegates.

That's what this month's contests are all about.
Title Holder (Fl)
The GOP Establishment thought it had a Dog( Mr Rubio) in the Fight. It turned out the dog was a Chihuahua.
Dan Stackhouse (NYC)
Just as an aside, Chihuahuas are Mexican dogs and Mr. Rubio is of Cuban descent, not that it's very apparent.
Tulip549 (Seattle)
Rubio and Kasich should back out now. Trump is getting the most support because the field is so divided.
Mike Strike (Boston)
Rubio paid the price for following his masters’ orders to take on Trump.

Next to fall will be establishment favorite and Wall Street puppet Cruz.

And even in the face of the establishment’s open embrace of Cruz he continues to misrepresent himself as the anti-establishment candidate.

This election cycle is truly hilarious.
Cindy-L (Woodside, CA)
I think the greatest disaster for the Nation would be a Cruz Presidency. I am a life long Democrat but I am thinking of registering as a Republican so I can vote for Trump in the California primary. I am fairly neutral as far as Sanders and Clinton are concerned A Cruz or Rubio Presidency would be a disaster for the nation: both are determined to go to war and to stop any government funding of birth control.
Sulawesi (Tucson)
Cruz is not nearly the warmonger that neoliberal Rubio is (not that I would vote for either of them).
Lee Harrison (Albany)
Cindy -- I grew up near Woodside. I am thinking of changing my registration (must do so soon) to vote for Kasich in New York ... not that I think he's great but just a vote for a Republican who is not a very bad joke.

I can happily vote Democrat in November, my conscience is clear with either Clinton or Sanders. I don't think Sanders has any plan or chance to make his big ideas happen, but once he settles down to reality, I think he'd be a decent president, not do much harm.

I fear Trump, he's playing the fascist too well. Remember that both Hitler and Mussolini came to power by election, and then used that power to become dictators.

I also cannot stand the idea of Trump representing our nation on the world stage.

Rubio is not going to get the Republican nomination ... he's done. I don't even think he's eligible for wingnut welfare ... but we'll see.

Cruz worries me too, but there's no chance he could win in November.
SAMassachusetts (Cambridge, MA)
Agreed, not to mention the terrible things they would do to the environment.
Brittanicus (Indianapolis, IN)

This present administration has been a disaster and its time to turn to the "Outsider'" Donald Trump, to bring back some commonsense to our laws, given to us by the framers of the Constitution. I believe with Trump in the White House, their will be no escape from finding the culprits in the IRS, who spied on Conservative newspapers reporters and in collusion with the Dept of State and even the White House.

Washington is alive and writhing with corruption, as politicians are paid to vote for their wealthy cronies, not for the people. Mostly anybody who receives contributions from special interests must pay it back. Everybody has their faults, including Mr. Trump but he didn't have to enter this crooked 'Pig Sty" called Congress. But pardon me, a few lawmakers have integrity, but the rest get their perks and all the privileges money can buy from their donors.

Washington is out to get Donald Trump and any filthy dishonorable tricks (and there is rumors of voting machines being altered to the Cruz advantage) and if he wins, he is giving the White House to a criminal called Hillary Clinton. I doubt without any fear of contradiction she will not be held accountable for any of he elicit criminal works? If what I have heard through Twitter the silent majority will go back to normal routines, and that includes all my family and 20 other people I know if Trump is cheated from entering the White House.
Dan Stackhouse (NYC)
Dear Brit,
Trump is as dishonest and crooked as they come, and he holds ordinary people in contempt. If you really support him, you're shooting yourself in the foot, because he will not help you no matter what. He will only help him. He cheats on every spouse, avoids paying every contractor, fails at every business. He's a Loser, try to see the blatant truth.
J.Riv (Bronx, NY)
Brittanicus, you are making outlandish allegations here. To you everyone is a crook. Do you honestly feel that Donald Trump can end the corruption in Washington, when he himself appears to be corrupt? And if he Is blocked from getting the nomination and reaching the White House, it is not a matter of cheating; that is democracy at work
.
W (Houston, TX)
"This present administration has been a disaster"--for Team Red or for the country? If it has been bad for Team Red, doesn't your country come first? And if it has been bad for the country, pLease enumerate how, without using the "Benghazi" or "Fast and Furious" memes.
S_lake (Salt Lake City)
When you spend the last seven years obstructing and demeaning the President's Office like the Republican party has, maybe the party members think it is okay to elect just about anyone to that office.
Seriously ? Trump, Cruz, Rubio ?
Something is seriously wrong if these are the top contenders from the Republican Party for the Office of the President of the United States!!!
craig geary (redlands fl)
On the one hand a thrice married, quadruple bankruptee who just happens to be a Viet Nam draft dodging coward.

On the other a Canadian refugee immigrant, who belittles all other immigrants and wants to toss them out, who documentably lied about taking loans from Goldman and Citi, who is running to be Pope of the Cow Country, his fondest wish the imposition of christer shariah and resurrecting the Holy Office of the Inquisition.

Ain't we exceptional or what?
Dan Stackhouse (NYC)
Typo there, when David Duke 'ran', not 'won', thank God. Also hope all is well with you Craig and don't forget to beware the ides of March for some reason.
Dan Stackhouse (NYC)
Odd, my initial reply didn't go through so I wound up correcting something that didn't exist. Basically I was pointing out that the GOP has put up the worst candidates since David Duke ran for president, and then I tossed a few insults at the fascists Trump and Cruz.
Hector (Bellflower)
...And if Cruz and Hillary get the nominations, I think I'll write in Elmer Fudd and move to the Andes.
SteveS (Jersey City)
Move to the Andes anyway.
Dan Stackhouse (NYC)
All interesting but to me it indicates that the Republicans should lose the general election no matter what. Not only that they should if America is to prosper and humanity is to avoid world war three, but that they don't stand much chance in a general election.

What we are coming down to for the GOP is a choice between Trump and Cruz. Trump is an ignorant, bullying, sexist, racist, vulgar business failure. Cruz is a shortsighted, fanatical Christian, anti-democratic, obnoxious jerk. Both have a lot of supporters, with the uneducated racist crowd going for Trump, and the Christian Taliban picking Cruz. Neither of their core constituencies constitutes a majority in America, thank God.

So whichever of the two gets the nomination, they are not going to come close to 50% of the general vote. No Democrats are going to switch over to them, most independents won't trust them (rightly), and about half the Republicans apparently can't stand one or the other of them.

So this is all good, as long as they lose, because America must not turn into a fascist state run by an unintelligent version of Mussolini, nor a theocracy run by an unmagical version of Lord Voldemort. I look forward to Trump and Cruz being handed humiliating defeats, one in the primaries, one in the general.
C.C. Kegel,Ph.D. (Planet Earth)
I wish. But Cruz beats Clinton in national polls, and she and Trump are neck and neck.
The only thing to do is vote for Sanders as the nominee; he wins against all the Republicans in these polls, and has the highest favorability ratings of any candidate.
The real problem is the Clinton electability myth. Many Dems are supporting her because they think she is electable. The polls tell a different story.
Pierre Anonymot (Paris)
I believe you are dead wrong here. If Hillary, Cruze lite, is the candidate, millions of Democrats will abstain or vote green, which also has a dramatic effect on the math.
Theresa Turner (NJ)
Well said. It is indeed a "Christian Taliban" that is trying to accomplish a hostile takeover of the US political process.
John Smithson (California)
Michigan tomorrow should tell us a lot. And then Florida a week later.

As usual, the fortune tellers are peering in their crystal balls and giving us their prognostications. But nobody has called this race accurately in advance. What makes them think they can now?

I don't know what the results will be, but I do know that I'll never vote for Ted Cruz in a general election. I'm not a Christian, but I do think the New Testament has a lot of good ethical thinking in it. (The Thomas Jefferson Bible is a favorite of mine.)

Ted Cruz said, "any president who doesn't begin every day on his knees isn't fit to be commander-in-chief of this nation." That made me think of Matthew 6:5-6:

"And when thou prayest, thou shalt not be as the hypocrites are: for they love to pray standing in the synagogues and in the corners of the streets, that they may be seen of men. Verily I say unto you, They have their reward. But thou, when thou prayest, enter into thy closet, and when thou hast shut thy door, pray to thy Father which is in secret; and thy Father which seeth in secret shall reward thee openly."

Ted Cruz. Even Christ considers him a hypocrite.
Pierre (Pittsburgh, PA)
Actually, most analysts of good poll results have been calling this race pretty accurately so far. The main exception was the Iowa caucuses, which were well polled but didn't show Cruz's surge by Trump at the end of Sanders' surge to tie Hillary. Other than that, polls on both sides were largely accurate in NH, SC and Nevada and in most of the non-caucus Super Tuesday states. Polls were off in the caucus states this past weekend, but that seems to be more of a function of polling races with low turnout and significant barriers to voting. Where the polls are measuring primaries they have tended to be accurate on the whole - and we should expect them to continue to be so as we move forward in the election season.
Mike Riley (Wisconsin)
How is Cruz being a hypocrite? He said the commander in chief should pray. He didn't say where.
pnut (Austin)
Ted Cruz is the most disturbing thing I've spotted yet, floating in the toilet bowl of American politics.
Michael Mahler (Los Angeles)
Short memory, pnut. George Wallace? Strom Thurmond?
David (ny, ny 10028)
It may be floating for now but as the country gets a real whiff of Teddy's stuff it will sink to the bottom.
Guapo Rey (BWI)
But at least we knew where they stood. Trump, despite his rhetoric, not so much. Cruz actually has conviction.....terrible conviction.
Derac (SoFL)
Some day the GOP is going to realize that Rubio is just an empty suit and wishing that he will be the eventual candidate isn't a strategy. Rubio doesn't have any new or good ideas and Christie was right... he's just a robot repeating talking points. They are stuck with Cruz and Trump.. just deserts for a party that has been nurturing hate and distrust for the government for 40 years now. Deal with it.. you created this mess.
Meela (Indio, CA)
Right. I like Nate C. but the notion that there might be a Rubio 'surge' is laughable. It's amazing to me how resistant to the new republican reality most of the writers seem to be. Even Nate Cohen.

The primaries are now moving out of the south and even though Cruz won in Maine (wha???!!) his appeal is limited regardless of what happens to Rubio. He is the Christian version of the Taliban and because he actually knows how government works, more dangerous than ilTrumpo.
Don B (Massachusetts)
The insiders may have invented this little game of political chess but Trump has them very nearly checkmated with his "Micky the dunce" act.
William LeGro (Los Angeles)
For this entire election season, I've been wondering one thing: How do Republicans feel about having only these particular choices of candidates to choose from? I mean, their choices have never been worse - not between barely OK and really not OK, but between awful and worse than awful.

Moderate Republicans (yes, there are still some out there...somewhere) and Independents who lean Republican must be dismayed by this lineup. I simply can't believe that tens of millions of my fellow Americans are satisfied with their choices, but I haven't seen any survey that asks about this.
Guapo Rey (BWI)
Eventually, we will all vote for the second worst candidate
William Beeman (Minneapolis, MN)
Wow, Hobson's choice! Trump vs. Cruz. Does anyone seriously think that either will win the general election? The Democratic debate last weekend had substance and dealt with facts, serious policy matters and real solid experience and knowledge. Both candidates are presidential material.

The previous Repulbican debate was a disgrace. Schoolyard name-calling, vulgar insults and absurd fantasies about everything.

If the electorate chooses any of these GOP losers, they deserve the consequences. Look at Michigan, Kansas, Louisiana and Wisconsin. Under Republican extremist governors they are all in the tank. Every state with a Democrat or moderate Republican at the helm is doing well. Minnesota's unemployment rate is so low the state is crying for workers.

Americans should take note.
JD (<br/>)
It's looking more and more like it will be either Trump or Cruz, especially if Rubio loses his home state of Florida. We'll have one megalomaniac living under self-delusion and one McCarthyesque hater of democratic government. That should hand the general election to either Sanders or Clinton. Except, there seem to be a lot of Sanders supporters who are cry babies. I am in alignment with Sanders proposals almost entirely and would love to see him become president. But comments from his supporters in this newspaper are to the tune of: if I can't have my toys (Bernie Sanders) then I'm not coming out to play (vote). Well rest assured a democratic-leaning voter who doesn't vote is giving a vote to the Republicans because they will be out in droves. So if we end up living in a country that has overturned Roe v. Wade, defunded Planned Parenthood, disempowered the EPA, and on and on, nonvoters should go look in the mirror to see the faces of the people who handed the White House to the Republicans.
Maryellen Simcoe (Baltimore md)
There do seem to be a certain number of Sander's supporters who misunderstand what a political party is, and what it does, i.e. the paranoid ranting about the superdelgates.
I also think a certain percentage will vote for Trump if the general election is between Trump and Clinton. The goal seems to be disruption, at any cost.
Meela (Indio, CA)
They're whining now but if it's HRC vs Adolph or the Ayatolla you better believe Bernie's supporters (of which I am one) will come to their senses.
SAMassachusetts (Cambridge, MA)
let's pray it isn't Nader all over again.
Ed (Old Field, NY)
After race, “social issues,” mainly abortion, are the favorite diversion of the party establishments, because these rile enough people on both sides and make voting into a “statement,” allowing candidates to limit, evade, discussion of economic and foreign policy. If Trump wins the nomination, it might scramble the electorate, because he takes what might be seen as the properly conservative position about settled law based on societal consensus, about which there’s little a President can do (and Supreme Court justices haven’t changed anything in 43 years, other than at the margins—and in a more liberal direction). Therefore, the candidate Clinton would want to face would not be Trump, but Cruz, because she could then make the election about social issues, as Cruz would willingly oblige. Sanders’ people might turn out for her based on this, even though they disagree with neoliberal economics and neoconservative foreign policy. (Who would’ve thought the *Democratic* frontrunner would be the standard-bearer?). Cultural conservatives are in a no-win situation: if they go for Trump, they may lose “their” party, but if they go for Cruz, they may lose the Presidency—and they may lose the party anyway, because the choice of Cruz would make nugatory any talk of a “big tent.” Against Trump, she’d be back in the economic and foreign affairs debates she’s having with Sanders but at a national level.
H. almost sapiens (Upstate NY)
@Ed -- I don't take issue with your thinking, except; "... Supreme Court justices haven't changed anything in 43 years, other than at the margins...."

Well, what about Bush v Gore, Citizens United, Hobby Lobby, McCutcheon v FCC, United States v Windsor, and Obergefell v Hodges just for starters?

May I suggest you spend a little more time with the ponderings of Linda Greenhouse.
Roberto (South)
You're absolutely wrong. Clinton is unable to win the foreing and economic debate from Cruz, but can to do it better at the social issues against Trump. Cruz wins Clinton.
slightlycrazy (northern california)
perhaps we've hit peak trump
Jack (AK)
Most likely. And we may have hit peak Sanders as well.
kdtighe (Dunedin, FL)
Get real. Trump came out of the deep south ahead of Cruz. Where can Cruz win next? If Trump wins Michigan and Florida game over.
Said Ordaz (New York, NY)
I can't wait for this mad circus to end.
EdM (Brookline MA)
Saying that Mr. Kasich is exerting pressure "on the left" seems like an abuse of terminology. Wouldn't "on the somewhat less extreme right" be more descriptive?
John (US)
One of the talking heads on Sunday hit the nail on the head. Rubio killed his chances when he changed from orator to Beavis and Butthead.
kdtighe (Dunedin, FL)
While I was watching that debate I turned to my wife and said, "Rubio is going off brand". Big mistake.
Margo (Atlanta)
Rubio and his I-Squared Bill to greatly increase the number of so-called "skilled worker" visas - H1b, B1 and L1 visas which are poorly no others and little audited - knocked him out of the running in my house and in the houses of just about everyone else I know. We're fed up.
questionsauthority (Washington, D.C.)
Rubio's robotic debate meltdown will live on long after his candidacy has vanished. One for the books, right up there with Bentsen's JFK takedown of Quayle.
Al Lewis (Chilmark, MA)
Ultimately Bentsen's smackdown made no difference. This is right up there with Bush's petulance ending in "I paid for this microphone Mr. Green", and Ford's self-immolation when he freed the Warsaw Pact from Soviet domination.
kafantaris (USA)
Cruz is not electable in November. Rubio might be. But Kasich is -- hands down.
Jack (AK)
I, too, am still waiting for everyone to come to their senses and back Kasich. But I think there might still be some steam to be vented, so we're not done with Trump and Sanders yet. Just hope people don't wait too long...
Bob Jones (Missouri)
The last debate marked a turning point. Trump and Rubio were complete fools. Cruz remained professional. Trump lost a lot of support there and so did Little Marco.
kdtighe (Dunedin, FL)
Trump has little or no support but he may have been slowed down. Michigan and Florida will tell the story one way or the other.