Prediction Markets: Donald Trump’s Nomination Chances Better Than 50 Percent

A 51% chance Trump might catastrophically win the nomination means a 49% chance that he thankfully won't. When I flip a coin, I don't assume it's going to come up tails just because there's a 50% chance that it will.

Also this prediction ignores the fact that Trump will keep being himself and thus alienating one group after another as the primaries go on. His whining about demanding Iowa have a do-over vote (which to my knowledge has never happened with the Iowa caucus) is not winning friends in stoic New Hampshire.

So I wouldn't put any money on it just yet, we never know, Mitt Romney might come out of nowhere and clinch the nomination. But in any case, if Trump by some horrible chain of events does win the nomination, he cannot win the general. Too many people loathe him, for good reason, his policies make no sense, he has no morals, no strength of character, no self control, no judgment, no tact, and nothing that might benefit America. If he does indeed get the nomination I look forward to his crushing defeat and on-air tantrum.

I agree with Jeff that your viewing our pre-election period as a horse race is wrongheaded.

A free press is a core feature of our Constitution, because it is vital to a knowledgeable, involved citizenry.

The current performance of our free press is abysmal.

It represents journalistic treason.

Shape up, journalists, and help get our nation on a better course.

We would like to regain pride in our free press.

And today, the oddsmakers are saying...?

1. The media perpetuates this ridiculous "horse race" because it increases viewership and therefore profits. The media profits from this ridiculous scenario and therefore perpetuates it. 2. Trump will not be elected. This country is not THAT messed up....yet. 3. The fact that Trump/Palin got this much traction scares me and many others, I think, for obvious reasons.

Why am I laughing? Perhaps I am feeling light-headed and punchy from too much tea but it is so awful to think of Mr. Trump as the Republican nominee until one starts thinking of the alternatives.

True, I belong to the Old School of Politics but I was telling a disappointed American today, a grey-beard, a family man, a staunch Republican and a supporter of dreadful Cruz, of the time thirty years ago when there was a long line stretching around Fifth Avenue for a book signing, and my supervisor asked at Rock Plaza what this was about. 'Not sure' was my reply 'it's either a new book by Howard Stern or Donald Trump', causing the fine economist to snort.

America will be remembered for Donald Trump, or he will be remembered by Americans, and should in time, any one wish to send me a book by an historian on why the Republican Party self-destructed, I shall never speak to this person again.

Mr. Trump treats the voters of Iowa with utter contempt -- which is no surprise. What remains blindingly stupefying is how he is in the position he is when he treats everyone with equal contempt, only exceeded by the contempt he displays for the US Constitution, our form of participatory democracy, and common decency. His ascendance says something very dark about us, however, that we permit him to corrupt and mock our system with impunity.

And don't overlook that the prediction markets have Trump at only 19% of winning the Presidency. Just as significant, Democrats have a 62-38% chance of keeping the White House in November. That is a large gap this early in the race. Look for that gap to increase if Sanders drops out and if Trump wins the early primaries.

All the guy does is brag about himself, insult all the other candiates and any elected official, and make grandiose statements of intent.

The Donald has never explained how he would actually accomplish anything that he proposes to do. If asked a question, he gets insulted and changes the subject.

To paraphrase The Donald:"How stupid are the people who vote for this guy?"

To quote someone I enjoyed watching as a child: "Fascinating." I would hope that the threat of Trump winning Iowa would force the GOP into some serious soul searching even if it's just to see if they have souls. Too many of their answers to problems besetting Americans are heartless, clueless, and soulless.

It's amusing how little the "important newspaper endorsements" from little NH papers have done to improve the perceived chances of Governors Kasich and Christie. The NYT's endorsement of Kasich didn't help much either, I guess.

If Trump ends up with this nomination the GOP's "establishment" will only have themselves to blame. Allowing weak candidates like Kasich, Christie, Santorum, Huckabee and Fiorina to participate fully in early debates gave them all hope they didn't deserve and left a huge opening for The Donald.

re: your headline. So if your odds of winning are 51%, that's a solid bet? Would 50/50 be solid too?

If the media continues to give Trump 24/7 free coverage and to constantly proclaim him as the putative nominee, why wouldn't he get the GOP nomination?

Silly me, I thought that's why we had primaries rather than letting the bookies decide.

This is why we need to nominate Bernie he does much better in polls against Trump. Iowa please don't let us down.

Donald Trump should urge all Iowa Trump supporters to bring to their caucus a copy (or better yet, and original) of the following nefarious mailer Cruz mailed out in Iowa and explain during caucus the vile nature of this mailer, including the fact that the "grades" are fraudulent because SecState Iowa does not record caucus attendance, as well as the overtly threatening nature of this mailer that concludes with the threat that: "A follow-up notice may be issued following Monday's caucuses":

http://i.imgur.com/K062mBh.jpg