"The establishment" candidates map peaks out at 25-30%. Perhaps we need to see the "Trump" map in the same graded color spectrum. Or the "Cruz" map. Vague allusions to 'not winning this year' are of little value.
Why don't you show us the ultraviolet dominated map of non-establishment candidates?
Why don't you show us the ultraviolet dominated map of non-establishment candidates?
The fact that "mainstream republicans" are most popular in states that tend to be "blue" in elections is part of the problem.
In performing their electoral college analyses, Republican strategists ignore what Republican voters in these states say and think. Why? Because their votes simply don't matter. The party assumes they will lose those states, and has to go about finding a candidate who will most appeal to Republican voters in other states. As a result, you end up with more extreme candidates.
I wouldn't be surprised to learn that support for Hillary Clinton is stronger among Democrats in the South and west, while Mr. Sanders probably has more support in the Northeast and California.
The time has come for direct election of the president. Every vote should count.
In performing their electoral college analyses, Republican strategists ignore what Republican voters in these states say and think. Why? Because their votes simply don't matter. The party assumes they will lose those states, and has to go about finding a candidate who will most appeal to Republican voters in other states. As a result, you end up with more extreme candidates.
I wouldn't be surprised to learn that support for Hillary Clinton is stronger among Democrats in the South and west, while Mr. Sanders probably has more support in the Northeast and California.
The time has come for direct election of the president. Every vote should count.
5
This is insightful analysis: It shows that the support for establishment Republican candidates is exactly where democrats gain most of their votes -- in the coasts. It leaves much of the country up for grabs, and this is what Trump and Cruz have realized.
You may not like either, but any president will have to deal with the people they represent.
You may not like either, but any president will have to deal with the people they represent.
Wow. A world where Chris Christie is considered "mainstream." Just incredible... - A Jerseyan
5
You are conflating "mainstream" (which none of the Republican candidates are) with "establishment-backed," which Rubio, Bush, and Kasich are. There are essentially no genuinely moderate Republicans left in office.
The "establishment Republicans" are still far to the right of the kind of sane Republicans who ran Washington State until 1988. We had Republican governors in the form of Dan Evans (3 terms, 1964 to 1976) and John Spellman (1980 to 1984) and the latter was one-term because of attacks from his right-wing weakened Spellman. Since the loonies took over the Republican Party in Washington State in 1988 there has not been a Republican governor. (More exactly, Democrats who move to the circa-1980 "moderate Republican" positions win statewide office in our state, just as those positions work nationally, too, and that is why we should expect Hillary to win and govern like the same kind of circa-1980 moderate Republican Obama has been.)
Had Romney remained the person he was when he governed Massachusetts, voters probably would have chosen his moderate Republicanism over Obama's moderate Republicanism. Instead, Romney, like McCain before him, felt obliged to humor the wingnuts and commit electoral suicide in the process.
The right-wing "establishment Republicans" have used right-wing media to rally the most ignorant voters to their cause, but they never really wanted them to have a candidate. For this mob, Trump is now their man.
Dr. Foxenstein, meet your monster.
The "establishment Republicans" are still far to the right of the kind of sane Republicans who ran Washington State until 1988. We had Republican governors in the form of Dan Evans (3 terms, 1964 to 1976) and John Spellman (1980 to 1984) and the latter was one-term because of attacks from his right-wing weakened Spellman. Since the loonies took over the Republican Party in Washington State in 1988 there has not been a Republican governor. (More exactly, Democrats who move to the circa-1980 "moderate Republican" positions win statewide office in our state, just as those positions work nationally, too, and that is why we should expect Hillary to win and govern like the same kind of circa-1980 moderate Republican Obama has been.)
Had Romney remained the person he was when he governed Massachusetts, voters probably would have chosen his moderate Republicanism over Obama's moderate Republicanism. Instead, Romney, like McCain before him, felt obliged to humor the wingnuts and commit electoral suicide in the process.
The right-wing "establishment Republicans" have used right-wing media to rally the most ignorant voters to their cause, but they never really wanted them to have a candidate. For this mob, Trump is now their man.
Dr. Foxenstein, meet your monster.
7
Good post. I've always said Hillary is the new moderate Republican candidate.
4
Well, somebody has to propose a moderate Republican. The GOP certainly isn't going to do that any time soon.
I'm surprised to see that solidly red South Carolina looks like purple Virginia and Florida (in that its Republicans give more support to establishment candidates) whereas North Carolina (a purple state that went for Obama in 2008) looks more like other very red southern states. Is it that college-educated whites tend to become establishment Republicans in SC, whereas in NC they tend to become moderate Democrats, thus leaving the Republicans on average more conservative?
3
I just don't like Rubio. Every response to a question prompts a cold, defensive response from him. He doesn't have an ounce of give in his entire body. Moody and truculent, that's how he strikes me.
5
Interesting map; would like to Democratic districts superimposed over because I suspect that Democrats far outnumber but due to gerrymandering, they often lose congressional districts and presidential elections. The good news is, after legal challenges, congressional districts in Florida will be reset to fairly represent voters.
The current republican party meltdown, by their own hand, will also help end their dominance and truly reflect the more moderate, even liberal views of the majority of U.S. voters. Buh-bye republicans, crazy ideas, racism, anti-science, socially and economically backward notions; hello rational, reasonable policies that bring our country forward, not back.
The current republican party meltdown, by their own hand, will also help end their dominance and truly reflect the more moderate, even liberal views of the majority of U.S. voters. Buh-bye republicans, crazy ideas, racism, anti-science, socially and economically backward notions; hello rational, reasonable policies that bring our country forward, not back.
6
1. Gosh, what tiny districts. 2. Rollovers of districts in Fla. and the Carolinas results in popups which are so far east they bury the percentage number under the right-hand digital margin or whatever it is. Not that I really care where people who support/ed Rubio live, but curious about Florida.
Read Jane Mayer's Dark Money on Billionaires becoming Oligarchs
9
Since when is Rubio "Main Stream"? He is another radical right Senator, funded by a would be oligarch.
16
Carly Fiorina is "mainstream?" Surely you jest! For her capacity to double, triple, quadruple down on proven, serial falsehood, she would embarrass even The Donald.
www.endthemadnessnow.org
www.endthemadnessnow.org
23
None of the people trying to be elected for the presidency of the US is a REAL leader. None have any on-the-ground positive results proving they can solve the REAL problems of our country, let alone the rest of the world - violence, poverty, unemployment, war, "inequality", etc., that PROVE they are a leader, let alone be in the HIGHEST position of leadership in our country. Empty promises, and personal attacks on each other, is all they have to offer which could not be better proof of their NOT being leaders. Go find REAL leaders (you will know them when you meet them), and elect them, instead of voting for a group of people who have been chosen FOR you to vote for, for the benefit of "Money", greed, power, and control. Stop being so inexperienced in life. Get involved with diverse peoples and situations so that you can stop being so naive, and so easily manipulated. Think for yourself, take action, and get involved with the governance of your country.
6
Except for Hillary Clinton.
4
except for Bernie Sanders who has been consistent with his ideas and voting for his entire time in the senate.
4
The reason Rubio is strong elsewqhere is they don't know him.
His lying about how, why, and when his parents left Cuba.
His living on the republican Party of Florida's credit cards.
His channeling $83 million taxpayer dollars to Norman Braman, his largest backer.
His being all for the Braman, Adelson, AIPAC perpetual war in the Middle East, refilling Guantanamo and reinstating torture.
His denial of man made climate change while the City of Miami Beach is spending $500 million installing 81 massive pumps, raising streets and sidewalks to fend off permanent and increasing sea level rise.
His lying about how, why, and when his parents left Cuba.
His living on the republican Party of Florida's credit cards.
His channeling $83 million taxpayer dollars to Norman Braman, his largest backer.
His being all for the Braman, Adelson, AIPAC perpetual war in the Middle East, refilling Guantanamo and reinstating torture.
His denial of man made climate change while the City of Miami Beach is spending $500 million installing 81 massive pumps, raising streets and sidewalks to fend off permanent and increasing sea level rise.
29
ok--now I know there is no hope. "Educated" voters go for Rubio? As a constituent (and a maternal-child nurse), I wrote to "my senator" in September asking him to vote NOT to defund Planned Parenthood. I received a response telling me his god (and therefore Mr. Rubio ) do not sanction abortion. My response, questioning both his inability to views church and state separately and his clinical decision-making expertise, remains unanswered.
13
AIPAC is not perpetuating war in the Middle East. Muslim terrorists are.
Interesting; the people I know in the Midwest/Southwest seem to be for Cruz whereas NJ/NY (where there are Republicans) are for Trump. We will see soon enough.
2
Let me sum up the article for everyone:
Mainstream republican candidates = lulz
The End
Mainstream republican candidates = lulz
The End
2
An interesting consideration of the strength of the mainstream candidates in the East and West is that these states represent a large percentage of the votes at the convention. The strength of establishment Republicans in the blue and purple states suggests that Trump and Cruz will run into a wall after the early primaries and either an establishment candidate will prevail or we will have a brokered convention.
3
chris, you may well be right about Cruz. But Trump is widely expected to run well in the Northeast; it's his home base, after all, and the fact that he is considered less conservative than most in the Republican field (indeed, that he is arguably NOT a conservative, period) would play well there. Don't be too surprised if he wins EVERY Northeast primary; it would be a sign of serious trouble for his campaign if he lost more than a few.
3
What a shame -- and disservice to the public -- that the media concentrate so heavily on reporting results of polls. They should be probing into candidates' beliefs and backgrounds, policy positions, and experience in public service, and analyzing their campaign statements for meaning, substance, and truth. Why don't the media educate voters instead of merely reporting beauty contests to them? No, they'd rather offer a menu that is nothing more than "pick your poison." They chase wills-o'-the-wisp -- unreliable, vastly variable, and often-inaccurate numbers from polls taken with remarkably different methodologies. RIP, Fourth Estate.
22
At the end of the day, it doesn't matter. Hillary is next.
3
I don't think that his Mormon background has anything to do with his support among Mormons. I think he has support among Mormons because, as a whole, Mormons are educated republicans, which fits the demographic of Republicans that support the mainstream candidates.
Most Mormons don't take as kindly to ex-Mormons as this article would suggest. If anything, him once being Mormon and then leaving the Mormon church (Which I don't actually think is the case -- I just think he joined as a kid with his parents and stopped going shortly after) would play against him as Ex-Mormons tend to be jaded toward the church and Mormons tend to shut the door on people who make a public display out of leaving the church.
In any case -- The article is mostly spot on. I think the Mormon population largely supports Rubio because he is a mainstream Republican candidate, which explains his support in many of the Western states. That said, I don't think it makes one iota of a difference that Rubio was once Mormon.
Most Mormons don't take as kindly to ex-Mormons as this article would suggest. If anything, him once being Mormon and then leaving the Mormon church (Which I don't actually think is the case -- I just think he joined as a kid with his parents and stopped going shortly after) would play against him as Ex-Mormons tend to be jaded toward the church and Mormons tend to shut the door on people who make a public display out of leaving the church.
In any case -- The article is mostly spot on. I think the Mormon population largely supports Rubio because he is a mainstream Republican candidate, which explains his support in many of the Western states. That said, I don't think it makes one iota of a difference that Rubio was once Mormon.
1
Interesting. It would be great to see how that has changed over time. Being in North Carolina, I have witnessed a dramatic rise in conservatism and the Tea Party Movement. The state was once known as a progressive southern state, but the map shows low support for the establishment presently. Any other data?
2
@Bill W. you are absolutely correct that once progressive North Carolina has fallen to conservatism and Tea Party as represented by our current representatives. It is astounding how backward trending North Carolina has become. I suspect gerrymandering attributed greatly.
13
As someone who spent much of my growing up years in Wisconsin, and as a graduate of UW Madison, I am ashamed and completely flummoxed how that state has ended up in Rubio's camp.
11
Your state elected Scott Walker governor. Go figure.
5
dl, keep in mind that these maps reflect responses from only REPUBLICAN-leaning voters and is thus not necessarily indicative of the state as a whole. The Republican primary in Wisconsin will be interesting, however; it is a state which Republicans are certainly eager to flip this November, and could thus be ripe for victory by an "establishment"-supported candidate with at least some cross-over appeal.
Walker was elected on the many bags of Koch Brothers money.
And the hatred and fears of Republican radicals and Tea party extremists.
Scare the people - and lie to them enough - with enough money to get the message out and you can get elected today.
He - and his allies in the state legislature are destroying what was once a fine state.
Check out the recent NYT front page story about how he signed legislation to eliminate any civil service employees in the state. No qualifying exams, it will be who you know politically to get a state job. And you can - and will be -fired for no cause.
And, of course destroying the environment, teachers and the famous Wisconsin higher education structure, scientific research...the list goes on. And I am sure, he has more to come.
How sad and tragic.
And the hatred and fears of Republican radicals and Tea party extremists.
Scare the people - and lie to them enough - with enough money to get the message out and you can get elected today.
He - and his allies in the state legislature are destroying what was once a fine state.
Check out the recent NYT front page story about how he signed legislation to eliminate any civil service employees in the state. No qualifying exams, it will be who you know politically to get a state job. And you can - and will be -fired for no cause.
And, of course destroying the environment, teachers and the famous Wisconsin higher education structure, scientific research...the list goes on. And I am sure, he has more to come.
How sad and tragic.
2
Elitist, you say. Sure, maybe... except that few educated citizens living in other advanced countries would disagree with this intuition.