Donald Trump’s Existential Pickle

Jan 17, 2016 · 442 comments
Paul (WI)
No worries for The Donald. Egomaniacs aren't like the rest of us - he will not admit to losing - if even he does. He'll spin it into a win - back to "winning" at real estate. He's had bankruptcies before - all just stepping stones to winning. No he'll never see anything that happens, as him losing....
jomae (Arizona)
Our countries challenge lies not on Trump, but what does it mean for so many people to poll for his ignorance. Are the results affected by the way he has been supported as a perfect image where shows on TV reflect his brand represents perfection by American drive to succeed? Or do the polls suggest how many people spend more time watching the boob tube instead of being active in the present dilemmas to create future solutions solvent to our countries problems. Do enough people in this country really appreciate what America stands for? If Trump wins the race for Republican nomination, what does that say with regards to the Republican party? My father was poor, but he taught when you do not agree with values that differ, you stand and voice your opinion with respect to others, and fight for what you believe. I find anytime I try to create change in my community, I face those who say good for you, we'll see what happens. The problem is not with Trump, but how do we have enough Americans commit to one central path where being active through education, respect, and commitment to change the balance of power in this country?
CynicalObserver (Rochester)
Trump has this one covered. If Iowa doesn't crown him the winner, they are just a bunch of ... wait for it ... losers!
Follanger (Pennsylvania)
Could Mr. Bruni not be familiar with the narcissistic phenomenon of delusion of grandeur? Surely, that's how the Donald can turn his many bankruptcies into apparent triumphs. And, clearly, this kind of chutzpah is contagious among people equally prone to delusion.

Actually, Trump's defeat, in all likelihood to the much scarier Cruz, could be useful to the Dems. I'm still wagering on a third party run from him, bolstered by his conviction that those who rejected him were, er, stupid, that he can still show them the light. It would be as deluded as Perot's of course but, like that funny little man, Trump has as much money to squander.
Carolyn (<br/>)
More wishful thinking from the pundit set. Yes, he'll be a loser, but he'll spin it. The deal on the table is really between Trump and the Republican elite: like me or you'll lose (he'll run as an independent and take them down). In the end, they will like him, because he's already said he'll give them most of what they want. His main theme is: like me and I'll give you stuff. And that's wha the elite are all about. Meanwhile, his celebrity status and $$ keeps him in play, lose a few along the way, or not. And btw, when is someone going to call Trump out on the wall thing - walls were left behind a long time ago and replaced by tunnels. The only thing walls keep out are the poor.
gfaigen (florida)
More concerned about his supporters than concerned with him... what are they thinking? Who are they? Do they understand politics, global affairs, defense, budgets or anything else of substance? It is frightening to see the lack of knowledge or common sense in anyone that supports this monster.

Look to any other country in this world and see how much he disgusts them, except for Putin - what does that tell you?
Ultraliberal (New Jersy)
Dear Frank,
You are by far my favorite Columnist, & one of the reasons that I subscribe to the Times, however, i really don't understand your premise with this article about Trump.The only difference between Trump & all those that are trying to be President or for that matter, anyone who depends upon the public to obtain a goal, must have an enormous ego. The only American in History who came closet to being altruistic was George Washington, who refused to become President.
There isn't a candidate for President that doesn't have an enormous ego, the only difference between Trump & his competition is Trump doesn't have the slickness of a politician & what you see and hear from him is what he feels & stands for.Most people cannot handle the truth , that is Trumps Strength & weakness in the public arena.
Barbie Coleman (Washington, DC)
My Aug 8, 2015, NYTimes.com Comment/Prediction following Maureen Dowd’s piece “Trump the Disruptor,” after the World’s Number One Narcissist had insulted Megyn Kelly and the entire population of Mexico, still holds true (as do other Comments at this link)…

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/09/opinion/sunday/maureen-dowd-trump-the-...
Sherry Wacker (Oakland)
Judging from Mr. trumps past failures, (bankruptcy, The Plaza Hotel, etc.,), he will not be in a dilemma at all. His sociopathy and narcissism will not allow his brain to accept that he has failed, even if he does not win the presidency. In his world view he will always be a winner.
Saints Fan (Houston, TX)
We all know that New York values refers to the progressive new york city politics and not the heros of 9/11. Cruz will use this gaffe of Trump to beat him.
Dineo (Rhode Island)
Can you imagine what would happen in high school election of student body president. If one candidate mocked the others, called them losers, insisted in his own perfection as his baseline eligibility, bullied anyone who disagreed?
What if this happened in your child's school?
Todd R. Lockwood (Burlington, VT)
The words that few have uttered in reference to Mr. Trump—Narcissistic Personality Disorder—will go a long way toward explaining his motivations. As any psychologist worth their salt will tell you, people with NPD have one primary mission in life: to be admired. Admiration is the fuel supply they require to feel a sense of self-worth—something they are incapable of feeling on their own. Even when addressing a friendly audience, a person with NPD will endlessly brag about how smart, successful, and accomplished they are.

Life for someone with NPD is a 24-hour performance art piece, a show that never ends. And the performer lives in constant fear that the audience will see through the charade and cease to be impressed. So the performer keeps moving from audience to audience in order to lessen the odds.

People with NPD tend to group others into one of two categories: great people, and the worst people in the world. Great people are the ones who admire them or make them look good by association. The worst people in the world is everyone else. There is no grey area.

How NPD would play out in the White House is a scary question indeed. Every president has had a healthy measure of ego—it's a job requirement—but Narcissistic Personality Disorder is another animal altogether.
manfred marcus (Bolivia)
As greed is Wall Street's god, Trump's is a self-adoration of its super- ego, his downfall from 'grace', his inability to transcend the 'Ugly American" political epitaph being placed in the books. Donald is already a loser, independently from winning (or not) an election by defrauding misinformed and prejudiced folks. And when fear and anger are fanned by a demagogue, of which Trump is richly endowed, an existential pickle is born. All that may be left is sending a thank you note to the G.O.P. for watering this harmful 'weed' to obfuscate reason and decency, and to 'seal the deal', a country gone AWOL.
majorwoody (long island)
While the left and extreme right are in a tizzy over Trumps rise, this columnist is grasping at straws to find something negative about Donalds campaign. Iowa has an historic reputation for picking the loser of the race. Otherwise we could should have had a President Santorum.
Paul Wittreich (Franklin, Pa.)
Supporters of Trump hardly care or even know what "existential" is. Yes, Frank Bruni, you are right but you are only talking to those who already want Trump's downfall.
Doron (Dallas)
Yeah, nothing rankles Liberals like a guy stating the obvious truth....the guy they voted for, Obama, and the crew he put into place in various government departments, State,VA etc, are about the dumbest and most incompetent bunch I have ever seen occupy the highest levels of government in this country. Obama will go down as the worst POTUS in history. Jimmy Carter can breathe a sigh of relief he has been relieved of that onus.
Fred Stone (<br/>)
Ridiculous. He will have a ton of easy ways to elude a defeat in Iowa. Iowa will be a "loser." Winning the nomination, not some "irrelevant farm state," will be the ultimate test. "I needed this to sharpen my end-game." "The people who ran Iowa for me? YOU'RE FIRED!" "Iowa--they love me, but Ted lied his way to a plurality." You could go on with this forever, and He will.
Bradley bleck (Spokane)
Cognitive dissonance, thy name is Donald Trump. He'll rationalize and spin whatever happens to be the greatest of his oh so many victories, both real and imagined.
Jason Shapiro (Santa Fe , NM)
"Neither his image nor his ego leaves any room for a setback, any allowance for second place." Frank, please, you are missing the point of Donald Trump. It doesn't matter what happens to him - he moves the goal posts, changes the rules or changes the definition of "winning" so that he always wins. Four bankruptcies? Those are wins! Three marriages? Same thing. Trump would be very happy to win over the evangelical corn farmers of Iowa but ultimately neither he nor his supporters care about conventional victories. In their mind this 21st century P.T. Barnum has already won.
Scott (<br/>)
Just guessing, but Donald Trump will be unfazed by any such event as hypothetical and highly improbable as "losing". Whatever happens will merely be re-characterized in the Trump narrative. I know better than to guess at specifics with Donald. He's way to smart for me. I'm just a "loser" progressive who is already committed to Bernie Sanders.
c-c-g (New Orleans)
Every time Trump and Cruz insult someone (including each other), that amounts to free publicity for Hillary who will trounce either one of them in Nov. But let them continue to run their big mouths. For us liberals, it's funnier than most late night talk show hosts.
Jim H (Orlando, Fl)
Man, you're tryin' way too hard.
Phoebe (St. Petersburg)
Winning in Iowa is meaningless, as we have learned during the last presidential primaries. So what would Trump lose if he doesn't win Iowa?
David Fairbanks (Reno Nevada)
When a government loses credibility for various reasons the electorate often seeks a "Heroic Leader" who will return the nation to greatness and economic success. The U.S. exhibits all the symptoms of an angry disillusioned and economically unstable society. President Obama may be bright and articulate, but seven years of hysteria and hatred created by cynical Republicans and the media have left him impotent. Donald Trump fills the vacuum perfectly just as Ross Perot did in 1992. The difference is Perot had a genuine grasp of issues and a depth of historical knowledge Trump has yet to show. The tragedy here is Senator Ted Cruz is waiting for Trump to stumble or fall. Serious predators are watching and waiting for Mr. Trump to fail, and then all of us will be losers! America is in a dark age and regrettably it is not going to end anytime soon.
antmomi (Philadelphia)
While I agree with your premise about Trump's existential winner/loser dilemma, I would argue that Trump's momentum has nothing to do with logic. His appeal lies in his ability to connect with supporters who applaud his image as an outsider, which resonates with their own plight on a deeper level. The Trump phenomenon, at it's center, is a direct barometric indicator of disenfranchisement simmering within what appears to be a sizeable group. No matter what the outcome in New Hampshire, Trump will survive if he continues to say publicly what his supporters wish they could say to anyone who would listen. If he survives, it will continue to defy logic.
jonathan (philadelphia)
If Trump loses, and that's a big "if" at this early stage, he will state that he wasn't really seriously running for Preident. He'll say he was in it to point out all of the phony politicians, all of the important issues that these politicians refuse to address and correct and that he is the winner because only The Donald has the skill and guts to discuss what's on people's minds. He, therefore, can never lose whether he wins the nomination or not.
Kay Johnson (Colorado)
The latest in billionaire real estate is wasting the time of Americans during an election year.

Why? because they can.
gordon (america)
I've supported Trump from day one. The conversations I have with fellow supporters come to same conclusion, we all feel like he will lose Iowa, it's truly an outlier state. A state more likely to propel a Santorum, Huckabee, Carson or Cruz to victory.

PA, NY, CA, NJ etc are all easy Trump wins, if you haven't come to that conclusion by now you either haven't been watching closely or have some political bias that prohibits you from doing real analysis. With Bruni I'm not surprised.
Ted Peters (Northville, Michigan)
Trump's devotees will have no where else to turn. He is the only candidate who represents anti-intellectualism as a response to the complexities of life and the modern world.
garyr (california)
ahhh.....and what if mr. trump wins iowa....what then mr. bruni?

i agree with what you are saying but don't be so sure that trump's luster will come off in iowa.....it might not....and not in new hampshire either.

i am looking for someone to stop him......to quiet him down....to REALLY challenge him, but as of now none of the attacks are being done with any force or any legitimacy......they are all still too afraid of him
Ross James (AZ)
Trump will win the Iowa non-evangelical vote. History tells us that is what important. That is what he will be saying the morning after. When he wins New Hampshire, Iowa will go back to being the dustbin of losers.
Kay Johnson (Colorado)
Lucky for Trump, the GOP and blab radio did the heavy lifting LONG ago of unmooring the base from Reality, logic, rationality, fairness - it won't have to make any sense at all and can be as absurd as he likes. Grieving together will be a bonding experience, i.e., being A Loser will now be being A Winner.

The right's victim mythology machine will moan about how this just proves the Almighty is in High Whim and is dismantling America and whoever dares to question that will be the scapegoat, not Trump.

It is laughable however, that Karl Rove is getting a taste of what he spent his career doing to others. A pathetic thing.
Brice C. Showell (Philadelphia)
He will handle losing the way he has handled bankruptcy: bottom line matters.
Z (North Carolina)
I am not aligned with any political party. Perhaps this gives me a small space in which to view the news differently. What's that word? Oh yes it would be
objectiveness.- even when reading an opinion column.

The election seems more like a team sport than anything else. Everyone taking sides, everyone picking their team. Are you affluent and well-educated - Team
Shopper for you! Are you less educated and worried that the traditional view and values of what you know as 'American' are being lost? Team Worker for you!

Maybe this creates a mood in which a columnist like yourself can really 'have at' someone like Trump. I don't know. What I do know is that if you had done this with the Bush era crowd of Cheney, Rumsfield and Ashcroft (all proven to be much more dangerous than Trump ever dreamed) we would be living in a different world.

But that crowd? Hardly a peep and long after the implementation of their many deadly plans , such as the invasion of Iraq because of the unchecked claims of weapons of mass destruction. All money makers for someone, be sure of it.

Who is the bully here? Everyone. You, your paper. All of us. The election? Yet another reality show to replace the real time efforts that we have passed on year after year after year.
john sullivan (boston)
well Trump is in this race longer than anyone expected, probably including Trump. So at some point we will hear the words...Trump -YOU ARE FIRED!
We still don't know who or what put him up to this stunt of stunts. The good part about his candidacy is the truth about the separation and fissure that divides out nation. Race, guns, taxes, rich and poor. But no solid answers to mend this fissure has been spoken. No shinning knight and no common communicator has appeared. Obama's last SOTU speech was the only words of unity and call for common ground. These are words for the future but not the present. Trump is a winner in his own mind. He is not presidential in the American sense. He is a loser in the worlds eyes and the whole world is watching the American drama play out. It is an embarrassing shame he leads in the polls. Maybe the people in Iowa will realize he isn't a good choice or a choice at all. We just have to wait and watch with anticipation like the next episode of Downtown Abbey. The villian in the Shire.
Greg (MA)
I like this argument. If I wrote that I've said this for months, would anyone believe me? Seriously, I have. In any case, my additional thinking is that as he declines he won't wait for long to resign or, more likely, become a third party candidate. Either way, f/when he falls it's going to get real ugly. He'll be the petulant loser flipping the Monopoly board because he's been owned.
Manuel (Ohio)
Donald Trump is a legend in his own mind, who has become a Pied Piper for a sizable chunk of the populace that has become fed up with politicians of both major parties and their PACs
These citizens have many grievances, but workable solutions have yet to emerge from their lips or word processors, as evidenced by the so-called Tea Party.
Our nation will not cut its way to prosperity, or pray its way into success against terrorist threats, any more than merely taxing wealthy individuals & corporations will turn us around.
It will take a combination of increased revenues and reduced wasteful, duplicatory spending (exactly how many antipoverty agencies do people need?), with corporations & citizens each willing to share the burden of paying a fairer tax than the current system. Hedge fund managers & financial manipulators should not pay a lower percentage in taxes than working people & retirees; corporations should not have a tax bill for $0 (unless they were in the red for the year; those companies won't be around much longer).
T. Geiselman (NJ)
I think you have it all wrong. Trump will lose but will spin it along the lines that he is the only outsider who could have shook up the Establishment and realigned the narrative on immigration. He spins tales as he goes. Coming in 2nd, 3rd or last place will be sent through his mental meat grinder and be repackaged as a "phenomenal" accomplishment.
Thomas (New York)
If the people of Iowa don't flock to Trump, dancing in the streets, shouting "Hosanna" and strewing their garments in the road for him to walk upon, that will prove that they're all LOSERS!
JTB (Texas)
A HUUUGGGE pickle. terrible, horrible.
Mookie (Brooklyn)
Mr. Bruni believes 120,000 Iowans (or, to put it simply, the population of a few blocks in New York), who gave Rick Santorum the win in 2012 and Mike Huckabee the win in 2008, control Donald Trump's political fate.

Since when has the Left, or the rest of the nation, cared about what a handful of evangelical farmers, those who cling to their guns and religion, think?

Donald Trump will be the next President of the United States. Period.
Cal Prof (Berkeley, USA)
Donald Trump is not just a narcissist; he has a full blown personality disorder. One feature of Narcissistic Personality Disorder (NPD) is that a person re-writes history all the time to fit his or her "confabulated" (made up) internal world. People with NPD constantly do what Trump did when confronted with his statements to the NYTimes editors: they blithely lie and change their story. People with NPD deny reality constantly. And they believe their lies, their denials to them really are true. To admit being wrong would bring a collapse of the internal myth of perfection and superiority that holds these people together. (Inside, they are a complete mess, empty and completely lacking in human empathy.) The point is: Trump is not just dangerous. He is a very sick person. Now ask yourself this: what does it say about our society that someone this sick is a hero to many, and is getting attention from many others? The image accompanying the story shows Trump in a mirror. But the scary thing is, he is holding up a mirror to us, to our society. Do you like what you are seeing, America? If not, maybe pass up the temptation to equate wealth and physical beauty with merit and goodness. This will not only take some attention away from sick narcissists in our midst. It will also help produce a society that is itself less narcissistic. We can't help Trump, he is far too disordered to be helped. But we can help shape a world that reflects our better values.
Kenan Porobic (Charlotte)
The Republicans are the ultimate jokers.

If you followed their debates, you would learn that our country has only two problems – Obama Barack and Hillary Clinton.

Thus they firmly believe if the voters only elected them, all the problems would be solved and we would instantly step into the bright future.

Is anything more childish or infantile than this stupid idea?

Allegedly more than 300 million Americans are completely irrelevant in solving or creating the problems as well as the principles that we adhere to. If only those egomaniacs were elected, the world would change overnight and everything would be right.

The colossal national debt would disappear. The same policies and strategies that utterly failed during the Bush Administration to preempt the housing bubble, financial meltdown and the great recession would suddenly solve all the problems. “Bring it on” attitude that failed to pacify Afghanistan and Iraq a dozen years ago would this time deliver the marvelous results just because Donald Trump, Ted Cruz. Marko Rubio or Jeb Bush told us so.

The dangerously delusional and incompetent individuals don’t believe in the power of principles but in own messianic abilities…
V. Rubin (Raleigh, NC)
It just gets more ridiculous. A Cheez Whiz campaign song with young girls dressed like flags. Scott Brown as potential VP for his "beautiful family, that's important, that's important." I can't believe this is a real campaign.
Heather (Palo Alto)
This shallow and vicious analysis of the leading Republican candidate misunderstands the fundamental nature of Mr. Trump's approach. Mr. Bruni should, first, go out and find himself a copy of "The Art of the Deal." Secondly he might take a look at the life and career of one Monty Roberts, horse whisperer. He would learn something about negotiation. I'll take a guess here that Mr. Bruni is a staunch supporter of, and in philsoophical harmony with, the worst negotiator who's ever held the U.S. Presidency: one Barack Obama. Anyone who understands negotiation would never write an article such as this one.
Daphne Sylk (Manhattan)
Four bankruptcies, and the fact that given his early stake from daddy, he'd be worth four or five times as much if he'd put the money in the S&P 500 rather than trying his hand at real estate and casinos, he's already a serial loser.
http://fortune.com/2015/08/20/donald-trump-index-funds/
John Poggendorf (Prescott, AZ)
Trump is a lot of things: obnoxious, overbearing, demagogic, narcissistic, megalo-maniacal, unstintingly republican in his binary approach to alternate input ("I'm right; thus you're wrong....PERIOD....your fired!) and more, ....mostly sociopathic.

But there's one more Trump trait I don't recall anyone commenting on so far: HE'S DANGEROUS....SCARY SCARY SCARY DANGEROUS!

That he can do unholy things to his own companies or employees is the unavoidable privilege of power. But what he could do to the country at large is something else...and quite something to be avoided!

Remember the movie "Dead Zone?" Whether you do or don't, pull it up on Netflix and pay close attention to Martin Sheen as Greg Stillson, Presidential candidate. There is an ominous similarity between Stillson and Trump that bears watching.

I’m delighted Trump will be the opposition's standard bearer (or failing Trump, the even less electable Cruz) as the undecideds will likely get their fill of him between now and next November and just not be able to vote for him, no matter how hard they hold their noses and hear their own anger in the echo chamber. But it's a scary precipice to walk in expectation of such uncharacteristic lucidity.

And if your cavalier answer to the potential problem is "oh well, that's democracy", a re-evaluation is in order. Remember, not all dictators are installed via coup; the Weimar Republic was ushered in on a democratic ballot.
Charlie (Indiana)
Hopefully, Mr. Bruni is not under estimating the intelligence of the average voter. As George Carlin famously said: "Imagine how dumb the average American is. Now imagine that half of em' are even dumber than that. It's not Trump we must fear. It's the "half of em'."
Alan Chaprack (The Fabulous Upper West Side)
Mr. Bruni: Why continue to opine about this nothing...this empty suit? It's beneath you.
PETER EBENSTEIN MD (WHITE PLAINS NY)
To help understand Mr. Trump read the chapter in "The art of the deal" about the construction of the Wollman skating rink. The project had been repeatedly screwed up by a series of grossly incompetent bureaucrat managers. Mr. Trump came along and managed the job competently and made the others look like fools.

Mr. Trump regards "competence" as a global quality. If you can build a skating rink, you can manage the country and the world. I believe that he is wrong, that he grossly underestimates (as did George W. Bush) the skills needed to be president.

I empathize because, as a physician, I am sometimes called upon to manage a patient's problem after others have screwed things up. If you are not careful, you begin to develop an inflated estimation of your own global competence. This is aggravated by the adulation of some of your patients and by the interference of bureaucrats who never see a patient and use computer models to improve the "quality" of care.

Mr. Trump will not be upset if the "incompetent" Iowa caucusers respond to Mr. Cruz's anti-New York and subliminally antisemitic tirade by voting for him.
Joel (Brooklyn)
You really think so, Mr. Bruni? You don't think that he'd just change his "narrative" so that he's still the best, but voters haven't realized it yet? As soon as it's understood that Trump is the candidate of whatever is most incendiary at the time, then pundits will stop expecting him to behave like a normal candidate.
sophia (bangor, maine)
I am in no way a Trump supporter but I find I like him the best of all the R candidates. At least he's an honest egomaniac instead of all the other hypocrites that are running.

I actually think he'd be a good stand-up. He can make me genuinely laugh at things that are ridiculous. I'm beginning to like it that he makes no effort (or just can't) control his facial responses and so we know what he's thinking all the time, even when someone else is talking. His quick put-downs, usually correct, can make me laugh even when I hear the unkindness or arrogance or falsehood. And I don't know why that is.

We all thought it was a 'joke' that Trump got into the race. If all he does is somehow keep Cruz from getting nomination, I'll think fondly of him. Because THAT's the guy who's truly frightening.
S. Bliss (Albuquerque)
I think I can explain this. In the unlikely event that the Donald gets fewer votes than Cruz, it's because the LOSERS that voted for the wrong candidate were simply too stupid to recognize a WINNER. And it turns out that Iowa almost always votes for the loser. Therefore Cruz is a loser, and the Donald, the winner, can move on to New Hampshire and South Carolina where people recognize winners.

So in his typically crafty winner-like way, Trump will have avoided the stench of loserdom that Iowa bestows on the top vote getter there. Just another brilliant move by the eventual winner- The Donald.
bkay (USA)
If Donald Trump has a past life it may be that of Narcissus, the hunter in Greek Mythology who fell in love with his own reflection after seeing an image of himself in a pool of water.

That's the origin of the personality disorder Narcissism.

If you have this disorder you have an inflated sense of your own importance; you have a deep need for admiration; you come across as conceited, boastful, pretentious; you look down on people you perceive as inferior; you feel a sense of entitlement; you insist on the best of everything; you have trouble handling anything that may be perceived as criticism; if you are criticized you react with rage or contempt and belittle those who criticized you to make yourself feel better--or you may even feel depressed and moody because you fall short of perfection.

It's befuddling that like Narcissus aka Trump, his supporters have also fallen for his image. An image or illusion he's created via manipulation that cleverly makes it seem to them that he's in their corner rather than mostly his own.

The sad side of this disorder is that underneath the bravado there are secret feelings of insecurity, shame, vulnerability and humiliation. However because of Trump's wealth, he can thumb his nose at those in the world who won't play his game and purchase those who will. In other words, Trump needs constant adoration like the rest of us need air. And even if his sheep refuse to ever look up, the rest of the voting public already have.
Ellen K (Dallas, TX)
The evidence that Cruz comment regarding "New York Values" hit home in Iowa is in the way Trump reacted. He immediately trotted out 9/11, which had nothing to do with the comment. The perception by most Americans outside the urban northeast is that New York and New Yorkers represent an arrogant, brash, often bombastic point of view and generally dismiss anyone outside of New York. This is not dissimilar from the way many people from all political points of view think Washington is ignoring us. Like it or not, when you have a mayor who says anyone who holds views different than his own far Left world view aren't wanted in New York, you alienate many people outside of New York. When I read comments in the NYT, it's as if none of the people writing even bother to read opposing views. I'm a conservative, but I read Politico, Daily Kos and Rolling Stone, which more or less confirm my views. Are liberals so shaky in their beliefs that they cannot even look at things that may poke holes in their views? Reading the NYT comments, that is what is demonstrated. Of course they are moderated, which means we are seeing the views of the moderators. One wonders if there would be more balance, and a change in the New York Values overall if New Yorkers realized there was more than one point of view out in their city and that maybe they needed to start listening more and talking less.
OF (Lanesboro MA)
Wishful thinking, I"m afraid.
C Martinez (London)
Donad Trump is a gambler and in the world of gamblers
there can only be winners or losers. So far his bets have
been on xenophobia, racism and demagogy to fathom
a pretense of policies as well as social medias to market
his brand. The fact that he is not a politician has been an
asset yet it might be a curse when come the first primary.
If he loses to Cruz it will be an existential blow indeed then
the challenge for him will be to assess the cause of the defeat.
Bruni and other observers did pinpoint how the lax management
of his Iowa operation could be costly if so he will have made a
rookie mistake in basic competence as a politician.
ShelleyC (Chapel Hill, NC)
I loved the illustration that accompanied this column-- Thank you Ben Wiseman!
Maggie Carneiro (Yorkotwn, NY)
Frank, this is a particularly well written column. You begin to remind me of S. J. Perelman; your style of composition is almost musical.

Donald is already living in an alternate reality. I don't know if his mind would register a loss. He's certainly proven his ability to fantasize to himself on many issues. I think his psychotic break has already happened.
asis1 (New Hampshire)
He is a scary human being who has lost his place among ordinary human beings.

If president, he would overlook Congress and other government departments to go ahead with his grandiose ideas as a dictator.
ecco (conncecticut)
parsing mr bruni's current no-trump fulmination is hard work on a sunday morning...even granting all the actual data, (trump's self-promotional blather), mr bruni's jibes (the hair thing yet again) and arrant conjecturals just don't play: losing in iowa, when "voting becomes actual" (not! the clutch of numbing caucus sessions does not lead to voting per se, nor is "a champ" crowned (history proves) by anything, much less a "precise kind of judgement," that happens in iowa); that for trump alone losing is an "existential crises" (skip the rebirth of "existential" as the latest in pundit prose fashion) while other, presumably more desirable, candidates are merely embarrassed or, at least prompted to reflection (no evidence of that offered or on record); and so on, crumble under the weight of petulance and shaky thinking (the best: an apparent firm step, "typically, candidates cite their qualifications as the reason that voters should affirm them. trump asserts that he’s qualified because voters have affirmed him," then abject retreat "or at least because they seem poised to."

it may be a small thing, but next time mr bruni takes to the ice at wolman rink, (one of trump's can-do resolutions of endless dithering), he should make a list of like public interest (as opposed to special interest) projects, even one, accomplished by the rest of a dull, dull lot, (evidence of that assertion available on tv, 24/7).
the Bronx (NYC)
Mr. Bruni, Although your take on Trump is spot on, I believe he will spin his way out of his inevitable demise. This modern day pied piper will be leaving a huge, but temporary, void in the media when he is out of the race. Unfortunately, his popularity will land him another prime time reality show and his brand will live on. He is no fool.
Steven (Marfa, TX)
Let's extend this further:

What if not only Trump is a loser, but the whole GOP slate is?

What if all the illusions about a country they think they represent is mere smoke, generated by hypocrisy, fear and a home-grown brand of terrorism?

What if Iowans end up actually, above all, by a wide margin, preferring.... Bernie Sanders???

What if Bernie Sanders is elected, and is not only elected but proves to be the left's unassailable, trustworthy, forward-thinking, world-embracing Reagan? Without the illusions?

What if Bernie Sanders ends up being the Teflon Socialist?

It could happen, Frank; it may well happen.

It's going to happen.

Tune in tonight.
JOELEEH (nyc)
Trump's ego would certainly not be bruised too much by losing in Iowa. The caucusers of Iowa can be written off as (of course) "losers" --didn't he already say the people of Iowa are dumb, over some slight to him in a poll? He can say he didn't care about Iowa anyway. He can paraphrase Pee Wee Herman and say "I meant to do that" It is sad, though, that this born-rich narcissist has support. Trump believes polls are like TV ratings. Apparently that's also good enough for the people who cheer at the rallies when he answers his critics by bragging about winning in polls. Does he understand, BTW, that those polls only have him winning among respondents likely to vote in a GOP primary?
J. (San Ramon)
Trump is not a politician but writers keep analyzing him as though he is. Tens of millions of people loathe politicians and loathe the liberal press. Trump just flips off everybody and anybody he hates and his crowds love it.

The Trump campaign doesn't even return the calls of NYT reporters. Instead he trashes the NYT in the national debate. Instead of pandering for support he gives the finger to whoever he wants and tens of millions love it.

The days when the liberal press had clout and credibility are over and writers like Bruni are having trouble accepting it. These days they are just preaching to the choir.
Sports (Medicine)
Trump build's skyscrapers all over the world. He built the 4th tallest in the US, Trump towers in Chicago. That takes skill, genius, and executive prowess - and yes , bravado.
The other candidates couldn't build their own house
I'm sure all the commenters below are obama supporters. What did he ever lead or accomplish before becoming President?
I'm sure those very same supporters could come up with a list of things obama "accomplished" during his 7 years. But that all came with a huge price tag - 8 Trillion added to our debt and counting.
Bruce (Chicago)
It's interesting to me that the people who are most drawn to Donald Trump are the very ones who he would most characterize as "losers" - rural, downscale, poorly educated, their lives have disappointed them, many are out of work or pre-maturely retired, who whine that no one in government listens to them...yet they flock to the candidate who is most certain to mock them, and who is absolutely least likely to listen to them if he was to get elected...
steve pucci (newton, ma)
the beauty of his health report is that, pretty clearly, he will live forever and not just in the heart of patriots everywhere.
Rob Page (British Columbia)
To project onto Trump some need for logical consistency is to misunderstand the man completely. He exists on a plane far above such mundane concerns. Besides, it he doesn't finish first in Iowa, it's just proof that Iowa voters are losers.
catalyzer (Highland Park, NJ)
"But by that reasoning, losing wouldn’t be just a [etc.]..." Yes, but I'm pretty sure that Trump supporters don't do a whole lot of reasoning.
njglea (Seattle)
DT is that loud-mouthed, rich family bully we know from Jr. High School who somehow has anointed themselves king or queen. "Lesser souls" flock around them hoping some of the money and/or supposed power will rub off on them. They are allowed to get away with just about anything because the teachers don't want to get in trouble with daddy or mommy. But this isn't Jr. High school. This is the competition to be the next President of the United States of America. Apparently some of the public expect more of competitors on Jeopardy than for the highest political office in the land. Wake up America. Not one of the ALEC/Koch brothers/Wall Street republican/libertarian/tea party operatives - or those posing as independents and democrats - are honorable enough to be elected dog catcher. Do not vote for any of them.
James (Pittsburgh)
What happens to Trump if he loses seems to be predicated on what is the main fuel he is running on. If he is doing this to simply entertain himself or if he is running on an addicted personality addicted to his narcissism and megalomania. If the first he can eventually walk away with a smile. If the second, then he will find himself in a tortured conflict. With an addiction usually people have to burn on it before they can let go of its destructiveness. By that time much destruction to himself and to us will have been done. If Maureen is correct, Trump is a dog, well, then, he will slink away with his tail between his legs.
Saints Fan (Houston, TX)
Trump is a liberal in lambs clothing. He has supported partial birth abortion, for example. His lame complaint is that he had to do it for business. What other conservative or liberal donor does that?
He claimed that support in 1999 because he is in a New York frame of mind.
Gabbyboy (Colorado)
No matter who voters actually end up voting for, if DT doesn't win he will claim he's been treated unfairly. Ah ha here comes a third party, besides I think Iowa, New Hampshire, etc are overrated. Unless (surprise, surprise) DT just goes ahead & makes a "deal" with the electoral college; buying stuff is how he "wins."
Gabbyboy (Colorado)
I love the graphic, says it all!
Constance Underfoot (Seymour, CT)
Trump can lose Iowa for two reasons, most people don't understand caucuses, as opposed to a primary, and Iowa hasn't picked a winner in a long time.

Second, the author's delusion that Trump supporters are attracted to Trump because he's a winner is just that. Trump reflects the anger the voters are feeling and Trump winning, or losing a primary, isn't cheering anybody up, they're still going to be just as angry.

Trump didn't create the anger, he's channeled it to his campaign, remove Trump, they're still peeved beyond belief.
Rich F. (Worcester, Ma)
Very interesting piece.

Who said...."“I think that I’m a better speechwriter than my speechwriters. I know more about policies on any particular issue than my policy directors. And I’ll tell you right now that I’m gonna think I’m a better political director than my political director.”

Seems as if Obama and Trump are cut from the same cloth.....
Max Deitenbeck (East Texas)
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/81895_Page2.html

That is not a direct quote, but something attributed to Obama by one Patrick Gaspard. Second hand quotes obtained from right wing extremist websites? Yep. That's reliable. The rest of your point is nonsense. Obama is an educated, intelligent, open minded leader. Trump is an ignorant, blustering bigot who was born with a silver spoon in his mouth.
Stubbs (San Diego)
Exactly. We have had seven years of "hope," including all that racial healing that we were promised. I think the world can deal with whatever happens to Trump in the coming weeks just as it did with the One.
Duzer the Cat (New Haven CT)
How so? You choose. One is a graduate lawyer, well educated, speaks well and usually with great thought. The other an ego maniac who shoots off his mouth with invictives and degregations.
Stephen Light (Grand Marais MN)
Trump is finally in trouble, at least in the short term.

In Iowa -- no ground game -- he thinks he can get people to the caucuses with bluster.

Second -- Pride and triumphalism -- Trump cannot say he made a mistake ever -- which leads me to believe he has no religious beliefs

Third -- he does not have a real response to Christy -- who has been through really tough problems. Donald has failed to be convincing -- where is the beef -- how has he been strong?
Occupy Government (Oakland)
Anyone see Mr. Trump's tax filings? we'll see who's telling the truth.
Doron (Dallas)
Where you been since June, in a coma? The man already released his financial statements. And if there was any discrepancy the Democrats and the Times would've been all over it like flies on honey.
Nina Barszcz (NJ)
Simple-if Trump loses in Iowa, Iowans are LOSERS!
PK (Seattle)
He will simply call the Iowa voters who didn't vote for him losers, and move on. He has no shame, and is not in reality.
Lauren Miller (Long Island)
You ask, what if many Iowans don't show up for Trump. The much scarier question is what if they do...
Sri (Boston)
Bruni completely underestimates Trump, who is not bothered by any such existential issues. He will say whatever it takes to win. He will immediately tack to the center and tone down his extreme positions if he wins the Republican nomination. Except for the fear-mongering which is the basis of his campaign. A sufficiently terrified populace could well put him in the White House.
ofilha (Lisbon)
I have to disagree. If Trump loses in Iowa, then we all know who are the losers.It's Iowans. And not only that but they are dumb and stupid and disgusting. Trump will always be a winner even when the guys in the white suits carrying him off....
John (<br/>)
The word "existential" isn't in Trump's vocabulary any more than the word "angst" is. He will forge forward as long as it suits his purposes, and an early defeat might just cause him to double down. It certainly won't cause him to collapse from self-doubt -- another word that isn't in his vocabulary....
blackmamba (IL)
Since Donald Trump is not running to be President of Iowa, if he loses there he will recall how Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum winning primaries in Iowa really made them losers in their race to be President of the United States. And the Donald will recall how Bill Clinton lost primaries in both Iowa and New Hampshire on his way to the White House. Presuming that the Donald is bound by history, objectivity, consistency, facts and logic is a mistake.
Steve Rosenfeld (Manlius, New York)
Did anyone ever notice (or write about) how hard it is to get a policy answer that is specific from Donald Trump? Very few have asked in any kind of meaningful or, god forbid, penetrating way. HOW do you round up 11,000,000 illegal immigrants and deport them? HOW do you find them? Do you pick them up In the middle of the night? With children screaming? Trump's typical answer: "you do it the right way...it's about good management." Has he thought through the process, or are we simply forced to "trust him" because he is in first place in the polls?

Then, the question is "HOW" will he make America great again? By decreasing the minimum wage or by lengthening work hours for undocumented workers, or the rest of us? By gutting regulations for business? By starting infrastructure projects (hooray, but please say so because that's what President Obama would do)? HOW, HOW, HOW? HOW would he deal with Putin? We are left guessing and forced to vote for him to find out. But there are ways to ask specific and topical questions, for instance: HOW would you have dealt with Putin when he invaded the Ukraine? If it's all about disinformation, bluster, and "trust me because I'm so great" thinking it will tell us nothing. How do the American people get to know if they are electing someone who'd detonate the bomb? "Trust me."

As long as there are no specific, or even mildly probing, policy discussions we will simply be forced to trust Donald Trump if he becomes president.
JayK (CT)
Donald Trump's ego is bulletproof because it's always capable of providing a rationale for defeat.

The failure is always attributable to somebody else (the voters are stupid).

Donald Trump doesn't give up that easily. This is a man who bankrupted multiple businesses, and now he is on track to be the GOP nominee for president.

For my fellow terrified democrats, let me provide you with a little bit of cold comfort should he be elected.

He won't be a worse president than GWB was, because that is scientifically impossible.

Admit it, Donald Trump is the president we all want and deserve, a true man of our time, and our time and his has arrived.

Let's stop fighting our fears and embrace it, how bad could a Trump presidency really be?

We've already had an entertainer (Reagan), and an idiot (GWB), Trump is simply an entertainer pretending to be an idiot.

We'll survive.
Patricia York (Ellicott City MD)
Trump is a master of cognitive dissonance. He actually seems to have invented his own brand of it! He stated, that should he lose the nomination, he'll just go back to building buildings. He won't ever be a loser in his own mind. He'll find a way to make losing, a winning proposition. That's what makes Trump, Trump!
George Carden (Charleston, WV)
Donald Trump is a businessman NOT a politician..Lets get that straight.
Kat (GA)
Enough already! Why does American media continue to waste ink on Trump? Is it because he's less complex and, therefore, the easiest topic? Is he just the best topic to turn to for a quick column? Is it because everyone else is writing about him? You, the media, have reached the point of diminishing return. Everything that is informative has now been said about Trump and all the headlines begin more and more to resemble tabloids. Please, all of you, take a deep breath and turn you attention from personalities and scandals to policies and long range objectives.
James (Newport, RI)
Excellent writing Frank - you might have stayed with the existential perspective a bit longer; circulus in probando captures the illogical postulate defining Trump's existence.
Outside of America's finer academic centers, critical analysis is sadly lacking though; no wonder Trump or other republicans are not for education other than vanishing spot rational to be elected.
And so Frank, thank you for doing you part to educate Americans!
Trauts (Sherbrooke)
The Trump misinformation ego machine will find a way around any setbacks and lucky for Donald there are many, many dumb American voters outside of Iowa also.
Doug Keller (VA)
You realize, of course, that Trump scored more points by saying the NYT is 'wrong about everything' than he lost by flat-out lying. That's how it works.
DSW (East Windsor, NJ)
Can't believe how distasteful the man is and so disappointed so many of my fellow citizens either don't recognize or are so willing to disregard it.
sceptique (Gualala, CA)
Or if he doesn't win in Iowa he'll just declare that Iowans are losers. Neither consistency nor embarrassment are Trumpian constraints.
mark jones (atlanta)
If trump does not win in Iowa Or New Hampshire, he'll probably start to run as an independent.
MS (<br/>)
If he loses Iowa, he will change his logic. It will be because Iowans are "stupid," not because his candidacy is a farce.
Bob C. (Margate, FL)
Nobody cares about Iowa. What matters is New Hampshire and Trump is way ahead of everyone else there.
Bob Acker (Oakland)
So you're saying Des Moines : Trump = Lakewood : Hindenberg.
LBJr (<br/>)
A Trump loss in Iowa is easy to explain. Iowans are losers.
After his primary losses mount up, it will be, "Americans are losers."
And then back to Celebrity Apprentice, if it gets picked up by TLC or HSN.
left field (maine)
I know Frank's considered this, but Trump will just call Iowans dumb or stupid or moronic and move on to win New Hampshire. He's had a number of properties go through bankruptcy with ego intact. No problem.
marc (new york, ny)
If he loses Iowa? He'll call Iowans losers.
Stephen C. Rose (New York City)
I am not for Trump. But I am not for Bruni either. By his logic if Trump wins Iowa none of the faults which Bruni compulsively marshalls will mean a thing. Silly logic. Trump is of more import and complexity than Bruni allows. Finally Bruni cuts slack no more than Trump does. Which places them and the rest of us in the same pod.
J. (San Ramon)
God its fun watching these writers obsess about Trump. Bruni just helps the Trump legend grow if he becomes POTUS. 8 years of Trump will be the single greatest last laugh to the liberal press in history.
ozzie7 (Austin, TX)
Bruni's theory may be a distinction that does not make a difference, and, of course, if he is wrong, then it was false. We shall see.
Oliver (NYC)
Mike Huckabee won Iowa and Rick Santorum won Iowa as well, and we all know what happened to them, so Trump can point to that. But if he doesn't win New Hampshire AND loses in Iowa, I think Mr. Bruni is right, he will be exposed.
sophia smith (upstate)
Referring to Trump's "brimming lexicon of slurs" is a hilarious overstatement. "Loser," "a disaster," and "horrible" pretty much cover it. I haven't seen much--or any--coverage of the poverty of Trump's vocabulary, but it's a vulnerable characteristic. Where is the wit of a Joe Biden, who identifies "malarkey" when he sees it?
Countopinions (USA)
What does it say about a human being, that have to beat down their opponents, to build themselves up?

What does it say about a human being, that brags about their wealth, at every opportunity?

What does it say about a human being, that has an extremely difficult time accepting rejection?

What does it say about a human being, that is required to hear words of praise to get a mental boost?

What does it say about a human being, that gets a pleasure out of belittling, demeaning, and insulting others in front of an audience?

What does it say about a human being, that refuses to acknowledge, and accept that they are wrong, even if evidence are provided?

What does it say about a human being, that gets in a FULL BLOWN BULLY MODE, when they are questioned, confronted, cornered, about something that they said openly to an audience, that wasn't true?

What does it say about a human being, that utilizes their campaign to spread words of hate,to divide and separate people in our country?

What does it say about a human being, that will verbally attack ANYBODY, that utters a word of opposition or disagreement against them?

What does it say about a human being, that openly verbally attacks women appearance, women menstrual cycle, women strength and energy level, and women lack of intellectual skills?

What does it say about a human being, that consistently stereotype Blacks, Mexicans, Hispanics, Latinos, Jews, Muslims, Poor people, Poverty Stricken people, to name a few?
paul m (boston ma)
he wins even if he loses and losing Iowa means very little anyway
Michael (Oregon)
Trump is not a politician. He is a "deal maker". When the time comes, he will make a very lucrative deal to step down. And...everyone will be SO surprised!

The one thing he won't be is a loser. The writer doesn't understand that Trump has already won. He has burnished his brand, had a great time, and guaranteed he will be a King Maker, if not a King.

Trump has remade the campaign and the Republican Party in his own image. How can he lose?
Stuart (Boston)
I am no fan of Trump, but I have to speak up to what I believe is a gross misreading of his personality.

Despite your Italian heritage, "kvetch" would be a term that attaches to your view of the world; and it makes you singularly unqualified to move inside the mind of someone like Donald Trump.

Trump has been both high and low. He has built skyscrapers, followed by neither seeing nor hearing from him for years at a time. So, the assertion that he is unfamiliar with failure or "losing" is inaccurate.

Americans far from the parlor class on Manhattan's Upper East Side or Greenwich Village are attracted to men (and women) like Trump just like "self-help" books are the most enduring genre in any bookstore. While they might not always recover the reader, they offer hope. From my perspective, that is no less legitimate a reason to pick up "Seven Habits" than to pore over Virginia Woolf.

You attack Trump almost weekly in your column, kvetching. But you are really putting down the dupes who are in his thrall, just like we mock Kardashian fans who follow the "family who is famous for being famous".

Americans are a diverse and curious people. They are supercilious. They are angst-ridden. They feel victimized, Black and Brown and White. Donald Trump, and for similar reasons the sunny Ronald Reagan, offer them hope in a desperate struggle.

Obama said "hope", but he led with despair and thinly-veiled anger.

I'm going to watch this one out. I don't believe you're onto it.
Leon (NYC)
Mr. Bruni, you and so many liberal columnists have tried your best to dismiss Trump and, failing at that, you try your best to assassinate him with more bad ink. You are one of a large chorus who keeps predicting and praying for Trump's demise. You sing the same song again and again. And guess what? It's not working. In reading your latest attempt to smear him, I sense you are one who is afraid of being called a loser.
JimBob (California)
Trump is poster boy for the saying, "He was born on third base and thinks he hit a triple."
PWRT (Florida)
Honestly, what more can be said about Trump and the Republican clown car that hasn't already been said a million times over. Trump is a jerk. Period. End of story.
Scout (Michigan)
You know, there is at least one real thing about Donald Trump that never seem to be mentioned. Imagine what he has seen and heard all the years prior when politicians were calling him on the telephone or tromping over to his office and begging for money to run their campaigns. And imagine what he must have thought of their nonsense and ignorance. It's no wonder that he thinks he can do better. And, no mistake that he chose the right party to run in. He probably can do better.
Steve (Houston)
Do you ever talk to people who find Trump appealing and plan to vote for him? I know many Trump supporters and none of them cite his infallibility or self-announced superiority as a reason they support him. He calls people "losers" that his supporters think are losers too. He's communicating to them, in clear and succinct terms, that he's on the same page as they are, and he doesn't beat around the bush. He's not going to lose many supporters by coming in second.
Rob Campbell (Western Mass.)
Frank, I don't think you understand Donald Trump's psyche, he is a pragmatist and whatever happens, happens. and he will move onward, he is not the kind of man who cries over spilt milk, I think we would agree?

He is giving the Presidency this one big shot, he is giving it his best shot, he believes (and so do many) that now is his time, and he seems to being well in the ratings.

Wars are not won by battles, but one battle at a time. I suspect his strategy is more flexible than most, if not all, the other candidates because that is the way things are done in business. When it comes to money there is no middle ground, it is either in your pocket or it is in mine. I wouldn't worry about Trump's strategy.

When viewed like this, it seems Trump's 'Existential Pickle' as you call it, might be better likened to just another opportunity.

What about we talk about Donald J. Trump's tax plan? There seems to be meat in it, and It looks quite good from where I sit, but that's just me... what about everyone else?

We could talk about his hair and how it resembles a lettuce at times, but heck we would be starting to turn the hamburger salesman into the hamburger with all these pickles, meat and lettuce, where's the bun? where's the fries?

Seriously, maybe it is time for someone like Donald Trump. Maybe we need a salesman in charge, rather than... well, whatever we've become accustomed to for too long. People are yearning for real change, maybe this is it.
organic farmer (NY)
I predict Marco Rubio will win both Iowa and New Hampshire. The people of both states will say "thanks for all the money and thanks for the entertainment but we're smarter than you give us credit for. We don't want a buffoon or a mean guy in power, but we certainly have enjoyed the show and the extravagance" In the end, it will be Rubio and Bernie - both of whom could do a credible job as President. But hey, first - just spend as much of that grimy Citizens United money as you want here, propping up our rural newspapers and TV stations, bringing new jobs to depressed small towns, drawing attention to our closed factories and low farm prices, giving our young people something other than heroin to think about. Spend all you want, keep that money coming - but just because we take your money doesn't mean we'll vote for you. Perhaps we're just evening out the score a little with the 1%.
Jacob handelsman (Houston)
Bruni is so out of touch with reality it's comical. Trump will be the Republican nominee and will also draw in many Democrat and Independent voters who went for Obama. Which will give Bruni an opportunity to further demonstrate his Leftwing syndrome when Trump becomes POTUS.
Alison Schantz (Vermont)
How to preserve his identity as a winner if he loses Iowa? Easy. The Iowan Republicans will become "losers".
Al trease (Ketchum idaho)
Why don't you just say the nyts hates the guy because he continues to do well when you say he shouldn't? Does he have a nice personality? No. Does he bring up subjects that the average politician won't touch, but the average voter thinks about? Yes.

We're nearing the end of a term of a guy, that from what I can see, was qualified to be president because he gave a speech at the 2004 convention. He had no legislative record or particularly useful work history. And oh yeah, he was black. The guy before that, was a drug addled, draft dodger, whose claim to fame was his last name. Let's face it folks, we've finally reached the point in this country where anybody can be president.

Trump irritates the right and the left. He says what he's thinking. He doesn't quote the bible all day and he doesn't dodge questions. He's a breath of fresh air, even if I don't like the guy.
pat knapp (milwaukee)
Yes, losing in Iowa would be difficult if not devastating for the self-proclaimed "winner" known as Donald Trump. Losing in Iowa? The first game of the season? Iowa. If the man can't promise a win there, what can he promise? As Vince Lombardi used to say -- "Winning isn't everything. It's the only thing." And never more true than in the life and times of Donald Trump. Oh, and what about that "make America great again" thing? No, how are you going to make yourself great again, loser?
eric selby (Miami Beach, FL)
I doubt Frank Bruni reads any of our comments. But were he to do so, this from me: Do you have any other topic to choose from other than Trump and that cast of truly awful GOP candidates? There are many other issues out there, Mr. Bruni. And once upon a time you dealt with them. I no longer read anything about this cast of GOP candidates. Nor the other smaller cast. We are on big-time overload!
RS (North Carolina)
I think it may be wishful thinking to imagine that Trump will wilt with a slight setback, like not winning Iowa. He's dealt with setbacks before in his business career.

Iowa has not picked the winner for the Republican nomination in 16 years -- clearly a "loser" of a causus state if we've ever heard one, right? Don't be surprised when Trump brushes off a loss there without dwelling on it.
Burroughs (Western Lands)
Come on, Frank. Can't you guess what Trump will say if he comes in second in Iowa? "Winning in Iowa? That's for losers! It's not even an election! It's a, what? A caucus! What even is that? For crying out! Give me a break. They're going to go out on a winter night in the middle of winter? What kind of loser does that? Just askin'!"
ron (wilton)
Perhaps you have forgotten Trump's bankruptcies. So much for his infallibility.
Bill (Sprague)
Wonderful! Thank you for the honesty at last!
Deborah (Montclair, NJ)
I didn't manage to make it all the way through this latest entry in the endless parade of NYT articles about The Donald. There is absolutely nothing new to say about Trump until after Iowa. I know he is an easy target, and snark is always fun and sometimes clever, but there are more important and interesting people and events you could be writing about instead of this boorish, tiresome, and overbearing personality. Let's stop giving the man the attention he craves, at least until after the Iowa caucuses.
Ken (MT Vernon, NH)
Trump could handle a loss in Iowa.

On the other hand, Hillary will be flailing after she loses in Iowa.
Lake Woebegoner (MN)
Well said, Frank. But if it comes down to mano 'a feminano, I'll reach for Trump in any existential pickle jar.

OH, and congrats! I never thought I'd see existential and pickle paired together.
James (Flagstaff)
Mr. Bruni is half right: Trump's candidacy depends on winning, but there is one more thing, incessant press coverage, of the kind Mr. Bruni provides with column after column. This is a good example. It could be summed up in a sentence: Losing one primary will destroy a candidacy based on winning. The rest is fluff. Why not just stop writing columns about Mr. Trump, particularly when they say next to nothing? Mr. Bruni writes wonderful columns on many subjects, let's see more of those again.
Lisa (New York)
One of your writers said Trump isn't self-funded. I would like the NYT to disclose who is funding him.
Robert J Comiskey (Reston)
If Trump loses, his response will be: The voters are the losers, not me.
Grindelwald (Vermont, USA)
I'm certainly not a psychiatrist, but my personal gut feeling is that you can look to the case of Rod Blagojevich for clues. As far as I understand, Rod is in jail but still utterly convinced that he's the greatest and that lesser people have badly wronged him.
Ken7 (Bryn Mawr, PA)
If he loses in Iowa, I am sure Mr. Trump will simply say, "The people of Iowa are losers, we have known that all along! Losers love losers!"
jhbev (<br/>)
New words have been coined to describe Trump;
triumphalism, trumpishness, trumpism, but the real word that sums him up is trumpery. which Webster defines as
"1. something showy but worthless
2. nonsense, rubbish.
adj. trashy, paltry."
Mr. Prop Silk (Wash DC)
Funniest article I have read all week. I laughed out loud!
Mike Edwards (Providence, RI)
In the summary of his biography of Elvis Presley, “Careless Love”, Peter Guralnick comments that Elvis “continued to seek out a connection with a public that embraced him not for what he was but for what he sought to be”.
I wonder if Donald Trump, who, like Elvis, is in the entertainment business, is making a similar connection with the American public. A connection that defies the normal laws of political analysis and punditry.
Tony Adams (Manhattan)
He has already won everything he set out to win. Your coverage and my comment are the proof.
mivogo (new york)
You're dead wrong on this one, Frank. If Trump loses in Iowa (and if he does he will certainly be a close second), he will just move on to win New Hampshire. This is the latest of countless columns on why Trump is through, and he just keeps increasing his national lead among Republicans. I'm no Trump fan, I've faced it, Frank, and so should you--he is the likely GOP nominee. And if he isn't, he will just go back to real estate deals and six figure speaking fees. The truth is, he can't lose. Just us.

www.newyorkgritty.net
Jennifer Stewart (NY)
Nicely said! I look forward to the day.
Kevin (<br/>)
It's jerks like Trump that quiet introverts like me relish the opportunity to bring down hard, but quietly.
Jimmy (Greenville, North Carolina)
Trump supporters do not understand what existential means.

Explain that a little more clearly. Maybe in a fortune cookie.

I know some motorhomes have compartments that slide out to make a larger room Is that existentialism?
Jimmy (Santa Monica, CA)
Poll numbers don't mean much ----- 4 out of 5 doctors also told us Camel cigarettes were good for us.
Moe (NYC)
Trump can't stand Obama and it is killing him that Barack became the most powerful man in the world while Trump is still just Trump...
C.C. Kegel,Ph.D. (Planet Earth)
You at the NYT give too much coverage to Trump and too little to Bernie Sanders. The attention will make him more well known which will get him votes. Stop while you can.
Joe From Boston (Massachusetts)
Trump's UNfavorability ratings have exceeded his favorabilty ratings for a long time.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/donald-trump-favorable-rating

This suggests that when it comes down to a one-on-one race, he would not be a winner, no matter who runs against him.
Che Beauchard (Lower East Side)
Mr. Trump's response oddly has not been anticipated by Mr. Bruni: Voters who fail to vote for Mr. Trump are losers. Winners vote for Mr. Trump, and thus Iowa voters will be losers if they fail to vote for the winner. Apparently Mr. Bruni doesn't understand Trump-talk. It's all about winning, which is a declaration, not a contingent data point. So, Mr. Bruni, you've been Trumped and you, too, are a loser by declaration. LOL.
BSR (New York)
I look forward to the newspaper photos of Trump with the word loser under his name. And the best moment of this campaign will be when he is told, " You're fired!"
esp (Illinois)
Bruni, you have got to be kidding. Trump will never "lose" Iowa. He will describe it in his own ways. "Enough of my people did not come out." "It was too cold". "Cruz lied and lied and lied". "Cruz is not a citizen and can not be president". Anyway, even if he loses in Iowa there are still 49 more states and the territories to go.
Trump psychologically cannot be declared a loser, so like all other good politicians, he will spin it in his favor.
What will be more fun to watch is WHEN Hillary the self proclaimed queen loses in Iowa.
JKF in NYC (<br/>)
Mr. Bruni, you vastly underestimate The Donald's readiness to rewrite history. His four bankruptcies and two failed marriages haven't slowed his self-regard at all. His dependence on his father's fortune and interventions (think buying casino chips to funnel funds) have not slowed his mouth one iota. If he loses Iowa, then Iowa will quickly become a state of losers for not choosing him. Count on it.
TKB (south florida)
Thanks Mr. Bruni.

Trump lived in his own cocoon all his life .
He was the emperor with no clothes , who lived in his own penthouse but always belittles the fact that he filed for bankruptcy four times.

The only thing that I like about Trump's ascendancy in the Republican nominating process like all the members of the Democratic party , is that it'll be a cakewalk for Hillary to claim the presidency if Trump or Cruz is the Republican candidate for the Presidency.

Because, remember what happened in the 50's or 60's America or even in 1984 when Reagan ran the ad of a ' welfare queen' driving around in a Cadillac , trying to depict the Blacks as dependent on Welfare, is not going to work in 2016 where Black voters and Hispanic voters are more energized than ever before compared to Non-Hispanic white voters.

The turnout of the Black voters were almost 85%+ in the Obama's election of 2012.

This time around Black voter turnout as well as Hispanic voter turnout will create a history of its own .

And in comparison the Republican White voter turnout will be historically low with the figure hovering around below 61% that Romney garnered as Hillary is going to collect more than 50% of the White votes compared to Obama's 39% .

And in this election cycle , we've to remember that a negative 'Willie Horton' ad, that George Bush,sr , ran against Michael Dukakis in 1988, will not work in this day and age. It will backfire.

So, if Trump is serious. He'll change his rhetoric.
Dennis (Baltimore)
The answer to this dilemma is straightforward, at least for Trump. If Iowa Republicans don't pick him, Trump will simply brand them all losers, and therefore irrelevant. He'll bluster and blather on for a while longer.
Edithe Swensen (Saratoga Springs)
You didn't take into account the elasticity of Trump's philosophy, Mr. Bruni. If the Donald loses in Iowa, he writes the Iowans off as "losers" and moves on.
John Mead (Pennsylvania)
I can't stand Trump, but losing Iowa isn't losing. I hate to tell the mainstream media, but Iowa doesn't matter. Hasn't mattered for years.
Will NYC (NYC)
Frank, you nailed it. Best point: "his tautology" which means: "Tautology (rhetoric), a self-reinforcing pretense of significant truth."--Wikipedia
John boyer (Atlanta)
The Trump characteristics of bluster, failure to address facts, and pronouncements of omnipotence, along with his private plane and gilded tower separation from the reality that most Americans have (like a job or school, budgets, health issues, children) make him one of the worst candidates to come down the pike in a long time. Bruni shouldn't waste time pondering how Trump will react if he loses Iowa - Trump will not acknowledge his own mortal flesh, it's not in his brain pattern. He will only redouble his efforts in NH and South Carolina, and discuss what a mistake it was for Iowa voters to not recognize his rightful place on the throne as the person who KNOWS how the country should be run.

Whatever potential voters see in him because they're angry, they're missing the dangerous side of him that's the equivalent of a sociopath, maybe even worse. Easy to do when you're working longer hours for the same pay, or you've lost your job, maybe your home, don't see any good prospects ahead for you, etc. Emotions blind all of us to some degree - that's why it's good to have family and friends who can bring us back to reality. Trump doesn't seem to have anyone close who can change his mind about anything - that is truly dangerous, far beyond most of us would ever want to think about.
MEC (Austin)
Doesn't an "existential pickle" or dilemma depend on the presence of intelligence, and a soul?
Ernest Werner (Town of Ulysses NY)
Psychologically discerning. Trump has invested everything he is in this supreme endeavor.
pkbormes (Brookline, MA)
Nah, he'd just call Iowans losers for not recognizing his greatness and then move on, unimpeded.
Stephen (Oklahoma)
This was the (in the most literal sense) self-inflicted logic that drove Nietzsche to madness, too.
S. Bliss (Albuquerque)
I think I can explain this. In the unlikely event that the Donald gets fewer votes than Cruz, it's because the LOSERS that voted for the wrong candidate were simply too stupid to recognize a WINNER. And it turns out that Iowa almost always votes for the loser. Therefore Cruz is a loser, and the Donald, the winner, can move on to New Hampshire and South Carolina where people recognize winners.

So in his typically crafty winner-like way, Trump will have avoided the stench of loserdom that Iowa bestows on the top vote getter there. Just another brilliant move by the eventual winner- The Donald.
Rajeev Kapoor (Surat)
If Trump insists on misusing liberal lyrics perhaps his campaign song should be "We Shall Overcomb"
Jane (<br/>)
Basically, he will avoid an existential crisis by just declaring that everyone one in Iowa who didn't vote for him is a loser. He won't see himself as the loser.
dolly patterson (Facebook Drive i@ 1 Hacker Way in Menlo Park)
Hopefully Trump and Cruz will continue their vitriol against one another and the GOP will continue to *not* take control of their party (way to go Paul Ryan!)l.....

In the end, The Democrats will win by a land side bc everyone else is so tired of the stupidity, ignorance, and arrogance of the GOP!
MG (Kirkland WA)
Mr. Bruni asks what happens if Iowans (Republican Iowans specifically) should choose Cruz over Trump. It they choose either, they are all yuuge losers.
Keith Krasnove (Los Angeles)
But what happens to this opinion if Trump wins ?
jdf (San Anselmo, CA)
This is the most concise and precise assessment of Donald Trump written thus far in an increasingly twisted and bizarre road to electing a president. Bravo Mr. Bruni.
James Levison (Sag Harbor New York)
Greatest con man since PT Barnum. Lots of suckers out there.
freeword7 (New London, CT)
Trump continues to win when columnists continue to devote whole columns to him.
allan hughes (australia)
Trump a looser when he tried to build a golf course in Scotland. His PR machine went overdrive but he still lost to the local population.
Susan (Paris)
Why on earth does Frank Bruni think Donald Trump would endure any dark moments of existential doubt if he loses in Iowa or anywhere else?
This is a man whose Daddy hammered into his head from an early age :

"See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil" - but only about yourself, not others.
RHJ (Montreal, Canada)
You see, Frank, the only one whose judgment really matters to Trump is Trump's. So if the voters reject him, it's because they are losers. That's why he can't "lose."
Cheryl (<br/>)
Can we focus, just for the sake of the future, say, on Cruz?
Trump provides a lot of material, but . . .
skeptonomist (Tennessee)
No, people don't believe in the invincibility and superhuman negotiating powers of Trump. His main attraction is that he apparently stands for things that the Republican base wants - and that the establishment is not providing. The base wants an end to massive immigration and outsourcing of jobs to China and other countries, while these things increase the profits of the big companies which dominate both parties. Like most Americans, Republican wage-earners want higher taxes on the rich. It is doubtful if Trump would deliver on his promises on these things (his tax plan cuts rates for the rich), but at least voters feel they are expressing their dissatisfaction with the establishment by preferring Trump.

Trump may eventually fade - he is likely to lose to Cruz in Iowa and perhaps in the South because of religious considerations - but his success is based on real issues and dissatisfaction, not illusions about his supposedly magical personal properties. Like most pundits, who are not of the working class, Bruni still doesn't get it.
garyr (california)
gee.....are you saying that Trump "gets it" and his supporters love him because he is of the "working class"....no....i don't think that's it
Paul Easton (Brooklyn)
Humorless people can't seem to grasp that Trump is not a serious candidate. He is a parody of a politician, and that's why he appeals to us.
Cheryl (<br/>)
I don't think Iowans at caucuses are all that big on satire . . .
Yuri Asian (Bay Area)
And a parody of a brain surgeon, a CEO expert in job loss -- her own and those she sent to China, a boots and jeans populist with a million dollar credit line from Goldman Sachs, a MIA Senator without any credit at all, don't appeal?
Contrarian (Detroit)
Right: he should be the candidate of his own party, the Hammacher-Schlemmer party...
scrim1 (Bowie, Maryland)
Excellent point, Mr. Bruni. I keep looking for movie analogies to describe Mr. Trump and the situation he has created for himself:
1) Maybe another rotten child who got a golden ticket to Willy Wonka's factory and he's about to be undone using his own moral defects?
2) "I am the great and powerful Oz! Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!"
3) Max Bialystock in "The Producers" maybe? In this scenario, he never wanted to BE president, he just wanted the publicity that would enable his businesses and his brand to be made ever richer. He's "Springtime for Hitler" -- he was supposed to be a flop after he collected all the publicity he wanted, and now unfortunately he finds that he's a hit.

I am open to other movie suggestions...
CKG (MN)
I keep envisioning Jaws 2 and am waiting for the inevitable climax where Trump sinks his teeth into something high voltage and blows up.
Richard Grayson (Brooklyn, NY)
Another movie suggestion for Trump: Lonesome Rhodes in "A Face in the Crowd." Although he's shilling for another candidate for President, listen to this dialogue in which he correctly describes his own followers (and, updated, Trump's):

Lonesome Rhodes: This whole country's just like my flock of sheep!
Marcia Jeffries: Sheep?
Lonesome Rhodes: Rednecks, crackers, hillbillies, hausfraus, shut-ins, pea-pickers - everybody that's got to jump when somebody else blows the whistle... They're mine! I own 'em! They think like I do. Only they're even more stupid than I am, so I gotta think for 'em. Marcia, you just wait and see. I'm gonna be the power behind the president - and you'll be the power behind me!
NOLA GIRL (New Oreans,LA)
Larry "Lonesome" Rhodes in "A Face in The Crowd". A populist brought down when he was exposed for the fraud he really was.
Jonathan G. (Issaquah, Washington)
If you want evidence of how strong a position Trump has, it lies in op-ed pieces like this one, that are as lacking in substance as Trump's pronouncements, or more so.
Stephen Bartell (NYC)
As bad as Trump is, I prefer him to Ted Cruz (R)Canada.
He gives new meaning to the words "when fascism comes to America,
it will be a cross wrapped in the american flag".
chris (PA)
It will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross. Sinclair Lewis.
Max Byrd (Davis, CA)
Why do you bother writing about this maniac? Surely there are adult topics you could consider--medicare for all, rising sea levels, the coarseness of American culture, anything at all.
J. Gohlke (San Francisco, CA)
I'm sure they'd prefer not to, and I too would rather not read about him, but Trump has unfortunately hit a threshold (for now) at which it is dangerous to ignore him.
caplane (Bethesda, MD)
Trump does not need to win Iowa. Iowa means nothing. He does need to win New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada. And he will. That's a problem.
Munson (Syracuse, NY)
I agree with everything Bruni says but I am afraid that Trumps angry, no nothing followers are not going to care if he loses Iowa. Many of them wont even know that it happened.
fjpulse (Bayside NY)
Thing is, Iowa means nothing. Nothing.
Saints Fan (Houston, TX)
obama winning iowa against hillary meant something.
bnyc (NYC)
Why are you focused on The Donald when Cruz trumps Trump as someone who should never set foot in the Oval Office?

He hit a new low in the last debate with his comment about "New York values."

One of them was "focused on money." That doesn't stop him from groveling for in right here in NYC. The only people who are lower than Cruz are those who GIVE it to him.
Richard Grayson (Brooklyn, NY)
Trump can survive a second-place finish in Iowa (though not a third-place finish like the one Hillary Clinton did or the two third-place finishers in 1988, George H.W. Bush and Michael Dukakis, who both won their party's nomination). If he wins in New Hampshire eight days later, Iowa won't matter.

So I think Frank Bruni is wrong on this. Now if Trump loses the nomination, that's a devastating loss. If he is nominated and then loses the election, especially if it's a landslide, who knows how Trump would handle it?

But he's a reality TV show star. Wasn't there a popular reality TV show called "The Biggest Loser." Trump may be able to claim that he lost bigger than anyone else!
S Schim (Home of liberty)
If he loses the general election, Mr. T will sue somebody, maybe the electorate or the electoral college!
Rohit (New York)
"Challenged on his policies (which don’t really exist)"

This is not obvious. He has the sense to say what Obama does not, that to defeat ISIS we need to cooperate with Russia. He is also alone among the Republicans to be open to a single payer healthcare system.

But he is an unguided missile, no doubt about it.
Harvey (Philadelphia)
I wonder how much of his 'loser' preoccupation relates to his unresolved feelings about his brother who, by his standards, would warrant such an epithet.
Paula C. (Montana)
Finally!! A journalist sees the endgame for Trump, the one I've been predicting. He can't lose. And if he starts calling voters losers because he does, something I'd put money on, his general election quest is over. And the odds of him losing an early primary state or two are pretty good. I mean, who won Iowa last time? Santorum? Huckabee? Wasn't Romney, I know that. Finally, someone gets it.
killroy71 (portland oregon)
He'll do what he always does. Blame somebody else and declare victory.
garyr (california)
you are right......if he loses in iowa he will just blame the people there for being losers
KySgt64 (Virginia)
I wish Trump a landslide loss of Goldwater proportions.
Cesar Guzman (Los aNgeles)
I wonder how Trump has calculated his own mortality:
"I am the greatest person who has ever lived!!!"
David Price (Tokyo, Japan)
One of the things I like about Obama is that he can admit mistakes (although his detractors typically say it's part of his political strategy, weak, etc.) Trump has no such ability and thus I don't trust him or his ilk. I think it's weak to not be able to admit you have made mistakes, whether you are President or anyone else.
emm305 (SC)
If ever anyone deserved a public comeuppance, one he can't talk his way out of like all those bankruptcies, it's Donald J. Trump.
george (baltimore)
Just watch him spin it into a win and move on to NH and beyond.
pjc (Cleveland)
Mr. Bruni omits an important and central fact of the Trump phenomenon: his self-myth is so impermeable, he says he wins even when he loses, and, he gets away with it 9 times out of 10.

Losing Iowa? Anyone who thinks that losing Iowa means much in the big scheme of things... is a loser.
Alex Cody (Tampa Bay, FL)
This article sounds logical, but wasn't Trump second (losing) to Carson for a while? Doesn't he have some bankruptcies to his name?

So it's not like he's never been tested by the experience of losing.
mj (<br/>)
Interesting premise. I hope it's true. More likely Mr. Trump will call Iowans stupid and move on. After all it's not as if he hasn't said it before.
PE (Seattle, WA)
"If Iowa’s voters don’t swoon for him, it erases the whole gaudy prelude to that moment."

Wrong. If Iowa voters don't swoon for him, they become the losers, according to Trump. Iowa will be easy for Trump to write off as lost, provincial, backwards, and dumb. He has said that about everyone who does not genuflect at the alter of Trump, what makes Iowa so special? Pundits have already agreed that Iowa skews to certain strain of American ideology, can't Trump jump on that meme and look to the next contest? Start spinning his cosmopolitan, big city, New York juice? I wouldn't count on Trump folding up his tent like a loser if he loses in Iowa.
Steve (Indiana, PA)
You are trying to convince yourself that a loss in Iowa will tongue tie Donald Trump. You are drinking too much Conventional Wisdom Kool Aid. He will find a way to bypass that and convince his supporters and many frustrated undecided voters that this is not even a speed bump on the great America sponsored by Donald Trump. Also what makes you think that the egomanical Ted Cruz has the capacity for self examination?
SQ22 (Dallas)
When the man of many bankruptcies loses in Iowa- lead by Hillary Clinton, we can start a movement called, "That's Disgusting!"

Where ever he goes, crowds can greet him with his own words. Posters web sites, featuring the yellow head would have the infamous phrase plastered across them. Subway stations, restaurants could have rooms set aside: Men, Women and That's Disgusting.

Thanks for this thoughtful piece. It ca help us put the election in a better perspective.
petey tonei (Massachusetts)
Remember the whole Obama Birther bandwagon that Donald Trump climbed into? It fizzled out. Trump got over it. He will get over his loss of republican nomination as well.
S.F. (S.F.)
What is the Bruni/CNN/NYT/Dowd /Obama obsession with this man? Everybody knows we are looking at a side show.
I personally think Trump is a massive waste of precious time.
Ann (Seattle)
I would request that you, and all NYT OP-ED columnists no longer write about, analyze, or deconstruct Donald Trump. He is not worth the time it takes to write, the space it takes in your column, or most importantly, the time it takes the read about him.
Michael Gallagher (Cortland, NY)
If Trump loses Iowa, most likely he'll blast Iowans for being losers. And if he wins Iowa, he'll just whip that out as proof he's winning. But that raises the question:

He's winning because he's crushing it in the polls because he's winning. So why is he winning in the first place?
TB (Georgetown, D.C.)
It's disappointing not a single columnist at The Times ever highlights the fact that Mr. Trump is the only one without a pac and not accepting money from big business—two qualities I know you'd gush about if it were Mrs. Clinton.

Anyways, polls show at worst Mr. Trump will barely lose Iowa, which I consider a win for a novice running against career politicians who've spent 10x more than him.
Elise (Chicago)
Could it be that no Super Pac wants to give him money?
Luomaike (New Jersey)
Here’s how I see the 2016 election playing out: 1. Donald Trump narrowly beats Bernie Sanders to win the presidential election. 2. The day after his inauguration, President Trump calls a press conference to announce, “I never said I would build a wall between the US and Mexico, anyone who says I did is just wrong." 3. In the same press conference he announces his to open up all US public land to development by The Trump Organization. 4. All the masses who supported him as a savior immediately realize that they have just given the wolf the keys to the henhouse.
Sandra (Boston, MA)
Trump will simply claim that Iowans are the losers. And then move on.
Janis (Ridgewood, NJ)
He is a winner because he got out from under those bankruptcies.
Dick Diamond (Bay City, Oregon)
As a caveat to begin: I am not going to vote for any of the Republican candidates. I am a registered voter who in registered as an independent. That said, I would like to make three points:1) The "chattering" classes and elite do not speak for America; 2) We haven't had a primary as of yet. We MAY be shouting and damning a shadow. February through June will tell the story; 3) "We the People. . ." with the help of a dysfunctional government have created Trump, Rubio, and Cruz. Especially Trump. He is the personification of "The real lives of. . ." coupled with other TV "reality shows. And "We the people. . ." seem to just love reality shows. The Trump phenomena goes back to 1976 and Howard Beale's comment in the movie , "Network." "I'm mad as hell and I'm not going to take it any more." And the audiences listening stepped out on their porches and fire escapes and repeated it. Populists like Trump and Huey Long are the product of the people. They are the product of our disgust and hatred of the elite classes and our own place in the feeding chain. "We the people. . ." are disgusted with our rulers and are turning to someone who will yell and scream for "We the people.. ."
M. Doyle, Toronto (Toronto, Ontario)
Maybe "sour grapes" instead of a pickle?
KEF (Lake Oswego, OR)
Clearly everybody but The Donald is a Loser - so he can't possibly speak for any of the rest of us. So why would we vote for him?
Iver Thompson (Pasadena, CA)
So what if he loses - his life goes on as it was before regardless - even though for some, I'm sure, they will continue to beat their chests and crow about his defeat with a combined and resounding: Nah, nah, nah, nah! We told you so!

But that still doesn't make us winners.
garyr (california)
i will be satisfied if he loses and just goes back to being a non-president
Musician (Chicago)
The Donald is a real genius. Just ask him! He knows more about war than all the Generals put together. And more about banking than all the Wall Street guys and all the regulators and economists. He has a special kind of divine wisdom that comes from being super-rich. I'm sure it's very rare that those around him ever disagree with him about anything. Oops! Then he'd have to do that, "You're fired!" thing. People love that. And he knows more about foreign policy than all the career diplomats and State Department people that ever lived. He just knows. He has all the answers but…… he doesn't want to share them with us until after he is elected President. We just need to trust him. He will turn all the jihadists and the Russians and the Iranians into unicorns with his magic wand, and they will like it and probably vote for him too! He is probably the smartest man to ever think he is the smartest man ever. And that my friends, is very, very smart. Genius smart.
Jack Archer (Oakland, CA)
So Cruz "wins" Iowa. Don't you know that Iowans, especially the ones who would vote for Cruz, are all losers? "Win" Iowa and lose everywhere else? That's the rule. Trump has to run in Iowa just to show he isn't afraid of a bunch of losers, and by running there he wins. Don't you get it? No? Well, no surprise there -- you're a loser too.
JT FLORIDA (Venice, FL)
I think it's time to acknowledge that Trump has some amazing instincts about what to say during this campaign. His retort to Cruz about "NYC values" was a potential winner for him in Iowa and even beyond.

For a non-politician, he is capturing a new respect normally reserved for veterans of many hard fought campaigns. He seems to have a Teflon-like capacity for saying outrageous things and getting away with it.

Candidates in both parties better pay attention because Trump is improving as a serious candidate.
Anna Kisluk (New York NY)
Precisely! He has no ideas, policies, plans or agenda except to be the "winner." Let's hope he is a loser. Perhapsthen other countries will stop laughing at us. Our ppolitical process has become a laughingstock.
William Feinstein (Hammondsport, NY)
On Seinfeld, Jerry told George he needed to go to Vienna to be observed round the clock by a team of psychiatrists. Trump has so much insecurity and narcissism raging inside that orange dyed head of his, he needs to be studied not just by a team, but by the World Psychiatric Association.
nzierler (New Hartford)
Trump thrives on attention, both positive and negative. What he can't cope with is being ignored. The Times editorial board would do well to rein in Bruni and others who rail against Trump by ceasing to write about him. We all know his schtick - there is nothing new about how he trumpets his place in the polls, and how he offers nothing new in terms of policy and promises. I urge the Times to place a moratorium on covering Trump. At worst, they can pick up coverage again should he win the nomination. I'd rather read an editorial on the Westminster Kennel Club than another one on Trump.
A2CJS (Ann Arbor, MI)
The actual outcome of the Iowa primary will not matter. Trump will claim he was the underdog, so by making second or third place he was really a winner.
Richard (Wynnewood PA)
If Trump loses any state primary, it just means the voters of the state were dopes -- and deserve to be dissed.
Jonathan Katz (St. Louis)
Not a loser (yet), but definitely a bankrupt. The only candidate, of either party, whose businesses have gone bankrupt.
Scott (Illinois)
So if he loses, he will be turned into something lesser, more diminutive than he was, a Trumpette so to speak? If Ted wasn't an illegal alien he could Cruz to the nomination, but now they will have to scour the Bushes for Jeb!
Aria (New York)
I agree with much of this essay, Frank. But on one point I have a feeling you are wrong: I doubt that a loss in Iowa will set Trump back for more than an hour because people who are as mentally ill as Trump no doubt is have an uncanny way of simply refusing to see "reality" as we do. Trump will spin it as someone else's problem or fault, leaving him "still at the top," and he'll keep weaving his faux-gold yarn of drivel and hate for all the non-thinkers to wrap themselves up in.
Ken Stewart (Bloomington, MN)
Spot on, Frank, and thank you.

Trump represents the taboo that no American ever wants to believe, and that's the fact that our system here can breed home-grown fascists and demagogues as easily as any other. All one in this country has to do is take the initiative to teach oneself about political history for this to be glaringly apparent.

Trump has a following of suicidal no-nothings at the moment that jump rural bandwagons, who like Trump, are actually democrats, but they're the only ones who don't know it. They were duped 40 years ago by the original conservative movement, and the duping has continued ever since.

Trump is taking advantage of this, you can be sure. Any authoritarian movement uses the platform of the populist-simple to launch its narcissism-tinged rhetoric. This may be much more calculated than what presents itself at face-value. Then again, maybe not???
John Tierney (South Orange, NJ)
Like many other pundits Frank is correct about Trump's shortcomings and why he could fail if he doesn't win Iowa.

But recall he has experienced business failure before. And somehow he figured it out and kept going. The risk is that if he loses Iowa, he figures it out again and keeps on going.

The short of it is that there are a lot of people out there who are (in the immortal words of Network's Howard Beale) "are as mad as hell and ...not going to take it any more." Trump has tapped into that anger.
For reasons that escape me the establishment politicians just can't seem to "get it." Like Frank, they assume Trump is going to implode.
So they carry on with the same old tired and tone deaf tax cut for the rich/public be damned policies.

Want an example? New Jersey's transportation fund is all but broke. Its infrastructure is among the worst in the nation. Christie has suggested he might be open to an increase in the gas tax in return for eliminating the NJ estate tax. Out of about 70,000 people a year who die in NJ, less than 5% are subject to the estate tax.

That's why people are mad as hell!

Imagine if Christie proposed an increase in the gas tax and also bumped the estate tax up by a nickel? It wouldn't cost the rich much but the optics would be fantastic.

Frank, its time to stop telling us why Trump is going to fail and help establishment Republicans understand why he has been so successful. Maybe, just maybe someone might "get it" before its too late.
Patty Ann B (Midwest)
Mr. Trump does not deal in reasons he deals in rationalizations. He will have no trouble rationalizing away his defeat just as he has rationalized away his four bankruptcies as good business practice when they are really fixes for bad business practices and/or decisions. His creditors and all the little people who use banks support him as they paid the price for his bankruptcies in losses and higher and more fees. He will find a rationalization for his defeat in the primaries and will still consider himself a great politician just as his four failures at business make him a great businessman.
ACW (New Jersey)
The Mardi Gras float that is Trump trundles along its route, tossing out boasts and invectives like brummagem beads. Ash Wednesday, though, looms at the end of the route. Everyone shucks their finery and gets serious.
When - not if, when - that happens, I will discern the truth about Trump. I'm weighing three possibilities.
1. He's a canny publicist pumping this 'campaign' for all it's worth, on the precept there's no such thing as bad press.
2. He's floridly mentally ill, Exhibit A of what happens when narcissistic personality disorder has access to unlimited resources. (Just as Caligula was Exhibit A of what happens when psychotic sadism has access to unlimited power.)
3. This is a serious campaign, not a delusion or PR stunt. But Trump's true goal is not the nomination; like the dog chasing the car, he wouldn't know what to do with it if he caught it. His goal is to influence the party's direction and platform in ways that serve his various business interests. Same as the Kochs and Adelson, just a different method, one more suited to his temperament. It gratifies Trump to be the Great and Powerful Oz; they prefer, insofar as possible, to stay behind the curtain. What those interests may be would be a separate discussion.
Karen (New Jersey)
He'll just spin it so it's really a victory, and he planned it that way all along. In that way he always wins and never loses. Then he'll call you a loser in a loud voice. Then he'll move on.

That being said, if he does lose big in a couple of races, he may very well drop out. It's possible he never intended or in his wildest dreams expected to get this far. It may be that he did truly want the presidency, but a loss will confirm it's actually over.

Then he will proclaim this was his plan pretty much all along, he's thrilled that he lasted as long as he did, he is a winner, you are a loser, rinse repeat.
mrmerrill (Portland, OR)
So this is the level to which the press has sunk, an opinion piece the entire value of which depends upon a candidate's willingness to acknowledge second place? Frantic attempts to reestablish relevance by a completely flummoxed fourth estate continue to amaze. Once again, all Trump has to do to send them (Mr. Bruni this time) to the showers is sneer at the delicious irony of their presumptuousness.
VJBortolot (Guilford CT)
It seems obvious that if he-who-should-not-be-named fails to prevail in Iowa (most would call that 'losing'), he would simply call the Iowa caucus-goers ignorant losers, and continue on in his alternate reality knowing he really did win.

Financially, he should be considered a loser already, because as it has been reported by analysts, if he had simply put all his inherited money into an index fund, he would be twice as rich as he presently is, with no debt. But as the old joke goes, the easiest way to make a small fortune is to start with a large one.
oh (please)
Unlike the Wicked Witch, Donald Trump won't melt if he doesn't win in Iowa.

Trump is definitely a character, but he's not the gross bombastic caricature the NY Times seems to want to paint him to be.

Irascible? Yes. Shrewd? Yes? Thin skinned? Yes. Opportunistic? Yes. Charismatic? Apparently so.

Trump has had many successes and many failures in life, and survived them all just fine.

He didn't win every deal, or have every deal work out. But he's shown himself to be a long term player in highly competitive fields, including TV, which is after all, what a presidential campaign has been largely reduced to. His prowess on twitter is actually remarkable.

I'm not a fan of Trump for president. I admit Hillary is the most competent and qualified to be president in the usual sense. But these are not usual times, and I plan on voting for Bernie Sanders every chance I get.
ofilha (Lisbon)
Bernie is my man also, but Trump has been quite bombastic. But the interesting thing to me is that he basically tore the GOP apart. If he loses the nomination many of his supporters will probably not vote. If Cruz wins the GOP will definitely not win the presidency. I am no fan of Hillary and i may not vote for her, except that we are always put in this position: the lesser of two evils.
J M (Cold Spring, NY)
As usual, the most highly competent, qualified person will be not quite up to the task. Sorry girls, you just have to work a little harder.
totyson (Sheboygan, WI)
All of your descriptions of Mr. Trump are pretty accurate, especially when you keep in mind that the motivation for him, in the end, is always himself. He is in no way interested in doing any good work unless it benefits Donald Trump. That would make for a very dangerous president.
TheraP (Midwest)
Don't worry, Frank. If Trump loses he WILL find a scapegoat! Paranoia is an easy step from narcissism.

Will that scapegoat be you, Frank? Probably not. You're likely a loser, like the rest of us poor saps. But something big will be the scapegoat. Des Moine Register. New York Times. Perhaps the GOP elites.

Good column!
pat knapp (milwaukee)
Trump will pull out on his own terms and time. He'll just claim he knows a "bad deal" when he sees one.
Sajwert (NH)
Trump is not the problem. He is, pardon the unpleasant analogy, the scab covering the ugly wound that is under it. One can pick at it, but when one does the oozing of the unpleasantness under it comes out, and in this case, it would be the obviousness of racism and bigotry showing itself to the world. It would be the unpleasant smell of anger and hate.
Perhaps the scab will get torn off in Iowa and then what? The choice is just between another scab, but one of a different making, a different cause, with the same ugly underneath.
Carolyn (Saint Augustine, Florida)
There's a serious problem when an editorialist is actually rooting for Cruz. What Mr. Bruni doesn't understand is that Trump supporters are not oblivious to Trump's transgressions; they simply don't care. If he loses Iowa, he'll survive unscathed, because those that didn't vote for him will be "the losers," not him. And thus, he will carry on, much to the party's dismay, but to the delight of the media.
JABarry (Maryland)
Frank points to a very real dilemma for Trump...sooner or later he will confront the reality that he is a loser (by his own definition)...has been all along. Just don't expect him to admit it. He will walk away with his ego still "unbelievably" inflated, claiming the elections were rigged (which they may be).

The few sane Republicans who still believe in governance will breathe easier with The Donald's public comeuppance, (hopefully disappearance) whether it comes in Iowa, New Hampshire or later. We will all celebrate his exit.

Democrats have been laughing all along, incredulous at how right-wing Republicans have embraced this uncouth, child-like bully, so "unbelievably" full of hubris.

But Trump is only one of the many unsavory, unacceptable candidates Republicans have brought forth to demonstrate the GOP hostility toward governance and America (because if the GOP is going to recommend dangerous, incompetent servants of the wealthy to run our government, then the GOP clearly intends harm to America).
DMcDonald_Tweet (Wichita, KS USA)
With a Trump-sized ego and degree of narcissism, it is fairly predictable how he will avoid being, in his mind, a loser. When it becomes clear that he will not emerge victorious, he will simply declare that America is not serious about "winning" and he does not want to waste his brilliance leading people like that.
Elise (Chicago)
I realize that it is not just Donald Trump's Existential Pickle. It is the Republican Party Existential Pickle. The Republican Party needs to have a more positive message for the sake of our countries future. This relentless attack against institutions, women and minorities won't do anything but bad things for our country.

There are about 200 countries in the world. Most don't have a way to deal with corruption. The USA has a system so our corruption level stays down to a dull roar. It is in the UN and UNESCO charter that one of the key elements in a functioning country are a way to deal with corruption. Because of it we basically have Justice,

I still believe in our democratic system and believe in justice. The voice of the people would never vote a guy whose first two wives said he was a bad husband and divorced him. Marla Maples only lasted a year and he ws a wealthy man. His changing hsi fathers will to exclude his brother and the family had to sue Donald Trump to get care for their child with cerebral palsy.

I feel like his candidacy has a Charlie Sheen spectacular element to it. It I had the choice between voting for Charlie Sheen or Trump I would take Charlie anyday.
minh z (manhattan)
I don't think Iowa will matter for Donald Trump's advancement to the Republican candidate. The main issue will be what the Republican party will do to try to thwart him, in other primaries. In the meantime yet another Donald Trump article full of negative comments. Yawn.
Ellis6 (Sequim, WA)
A loss in Iowa won't slow Trump down or shut him up. After all, it's not an election, it's a caucus and not very many people show up for caucuses. Besides, the only people who attend caucuses are losers. Everyone knows that. If he loses to Cruz in Iowa -- where the people who do caucus appear to be the looniest of Iowa's voters (maybe not exactly losers, but weirdos), he'll probably follow that with a win in New Hampshire and he will once again be a WINNER -- the best candidate in the history of candidates.

The fact that Donald Trump, possibly the most boorish and ridiculous candidate in history (yes, there may be one or two superlatives that Trump actually deserves) is leading the Republican field is a sign that a significant segment of the Republican base is just plain crazy. Their reasons for supporting him are as childish as the candidate himself -- "he's not PC."

Trump isn't funny. He's not entertaining. He's a sign that millions of Americans have no understanding of what it takes to be president and just how disastrous it would be to elect someone like Trump. It's no wonder the Modern Republican Party has become a severe liability to the future of this country.
Sports (Medicine)
And obama had what it takes to be president? What did he do before being elected? What did he accomplish? What did he lead?
He was certainly a master community organizer, and a master politician. And that translated into his first attempt at anything, the ACA website.
AG (Wilmette)
Mr. Bruni, you are making the mistake all other pundits are making. You are trying to apply logic and reason to the actions of someone who is proudly irrational and erratic. What comes out of his mouth might as well be generated by a monkey banging on the keyboard. I don't know how he can be classified as Homo sapiens because I don't see any sapience there. Only the other aspects of biology make him a man.

Please stop devoting so much space to this pitiable parody of his own self. He is his own entry in the diagnostic manual of psychiatric disorders.
AyCaray (Utah)
Trump stands out because he is, for better or worse, the most authentic person on the stage. He is the "top dog", unafraid of Cruz, the "mean dog". He acts out against whatever the moment requires. He is not a planer or rehearser; he is an instinctual reactionary. Cruz is a mean spirited schemer; he is the schoolyard bully. Rubio is the well-rehearsed, self-righteous, mechanical politician --boring at best. Carson is going for the ride; makes little sense. He is the "god fearing" candidate. The new Huckabee. Chris Christie is your infatuated politician who has attended too many rubber chicken dinners: stuffed. Dishonest at best. Fiorina ran out of lies and exaggerations. She is a "has been" person, like Hillary. Kasich is your regular politician who tells you what has worked in the past, but not in the future. He does not understand that the present and future are very fluid; fast and furious--lacks speed and creativity. Bush has social manners but is the child "left behind". Money cannot buy brains. Rand Paul is not interesting nor interested in the game. Trump may be maniacal, temperamental, but he is the most authentic person on the stage. People may not agree with him or even like him, but when he is in the pack, people are fascinated by the blows he throws at his opponents. Trump is done with his current competitors; has declared himself "the winner", and that is why he is ready for the new kill: Sanders, Hillary. Americans love gladiators!
ofilha (Lisbon)
He definitely is all you say and that is why many in the base of the GOP like him, but do you really want an inexperience,thin skinned, temperamental, spoiled rich kid in control of our missiles? I really see no difference between Cruz or Trump except the ones you mentioned. A president has to be cool, calm, collected and has to accept defeat at times or when to hold back. I don't see these qualities in Trump, it's all about him, not America.
Sheldon Bunin (Jackson Heights, NY)
Donald Trump was born rich and his family bailed him out of some early missteps. Nevertheless what we have before us us a megalomaniac, a narcissist and liar who believes that truth is defined by what he says what lawyers call ipsi dixit. The question raised is how a man who defines himself as a winner and almost everyone else as a loser could take a loss in Iowa if he his beaten by Ted Cruz. The very thought of that is what caused him to raise the question of whether a Canadian born Cruz was a natural born citizen.

On leader of a powerful nation, also a megalomaniac, a narcissist and liar was Adolph Hitler who was and invincible winner until Stalingrad. He demanded that his troops remain to be destroyed rather that retreat because he was betrayed by his generals and the soldiers were now worthy of the trust he had put in them. He allowed much of Germany to be overrun because the German people did appreciate all the things he did and were no longer worthy of his genius.

I would not expect Mr. Trump to retreat to a bunker but he is likely to say: the election results rigged by party insiders who want to prevent his nomination and if the votes were honestly counted he would have won and/or the majority of Iowans who voted were losers, but not to worry he will not hold that against them when he is president.
ofilha (Lisbon)
So, if he loses to Cruz will he sue Cruz on behalf of Americans and the GOP, just to make sure there are no legal issues if Cruz wins the election? We all know how great a patriot he is, having been in the military and all....
MKL (Louisiana)
Trump has lost many times before - bankruptcy isn't for winners. If he doesn't win in Iowa he will say that the race was rigged or he wasn't treated fairly. As in the past, he will just change the facts or his own predictions. The irony is that while he may have thought that a presidential bid would increase his brand, so far it appeas to have hurt it.
naive theorist (Chicago, IL)
the dfference between trump's egomania and Hillary's egomania is only superficial. Hillary thinks she's the only perosn qualified to and capable of leading this country. This isn't based on her accomplishments since she has very few unless you count her accumulation of frequent-flyer miles. As a federal employee she is a ear-total failure. she failed on her universal health care plan back in Bill's admnistration and her foreign policy under Obama has been a disaster in which she was either an active leader or a obsequent participant. Trump on the other hand, has had some successes (as well as failures) in his profession. the big difference is that donald seems to need continual affirmation of his self-worth from others (hence the constant Sally Fields-type references to his poll numbers) while Hillary' sense of self-worth seems to come from totally from within herself. the question is what is the preferable trait in a President?
Alan Carmody (New York)
Donald Trump has survived three bankruptcies. He'll survive a loss at the elections or primaries, since he entered the race somewhat non-seriously.

Besides, how could he possibly feel like a loser, if the morning after, he still has $10 billion in the bank?
Therese Davis (NY)
Trump is like a lion prancing onto our stages in the living room. He delivers his lines which excite his party base with great skill.
In an otherwise acceptable presidential announcement he says (paraphrasing) "Mexicans coming across the border are rapists, criminals and some , I assume are good people".

So from the first there was titillation. Talking about Megyn Kelly he said " there was blood coming from wherever." Another faux pas. But it was our minds that finished that sentence.

But then he artully arises from each pratfal. He hints he can save our country money by better negotiations, free trade has been a downward path, remember "That great sucking sound."? If China taxes us then we should tax them, or seizing the oil fields in Iraq, to eliminate Isis funds.

They sounded good and a few other GOP seem to echo him. Putting 11 million people on a bus with water and food and perhaps a tent is about all we can afford so the export of Mexicans won't go too well..

So naturally when Donald came out with a strong position on Moslems, it was assumed to be another mistake. The way he delivered it was in his own error prone style. But it contains a good germ of an idea -- to vet Syrians more carefully and not be naive.

But, he will be able to build a great wall -- judging from the comments of others, he has already built a few. (:-
Ralph (Wherever)
We will all be losers in this political conflict. There will be no winners.

If any of these Republican candidates win election, the country will suffer policies more extreme than the administration of George W. But if the Democrats win, the election leaves in its wake, a large number of furiously angry white people who will not go away.
Jack Mahoney (Brunswick, Maine)
Consider what might be better, an obtrusive man with a towering ego who can leap tall buildings in a single bound, or the consigliere to a Dominionist deity who it appears is furious that in His America women control their own bodies, gay people don't have to put on an act, and our military has not yet subjugated the globe?

For all our whining about the Donald, we will look back upon this time as idyllic, as that last moment of innocence before the 2016-and-beyond consequences of Citizens United came into focus, before the true voters of America, the unfettered billionaires and their major domos on Wall Street, put their stamp of approval on Ted Cruz and sent investigative Furies to pursue Hillary Clinton and her priapic ball and chain; our top story, how Sam Brownback's sensible economic policies saved Kansas.

In the next few weeks, we will be ushered, like Barnum's suckers toward the egress, from a carnival that has felt fresh and new, the neon bright against the gloaming, to a spin room in which many who should know better will attempt to convince us that we must disbelieve our lying eyes, that war is normal and good, that billionaires will sulk unless we abet their cupidity, that race relations are so good in this country that we no longer need voting laws and public scrutiny of police procedures, that we each of us can have just a little more if we're willing to screw the poor.

Trapped in a house of mirrors, we will recall Trump's silly pomp and smile wistfully.
Lawrence (New York, NY)
If Trump does not get the nomination, he will not be a loser; he will be the victim of some vast, evil conspiracy which rigged the system to ensure his loss.

That is the approach he will take, because that is the approach all megalomaniacs take when things don't go their way. First will be the tantrum (one for the ages, I imagine), then will come the accusations of shadowy forces bent on making sure that the only possible choice was denied his throne.
Epicdermis (Central Valley, CA)
Perhaps the celebrity adage that there is no such thing as bad publicity is in play here: Trump has already received so much publicity that he cannot emerge from the experience a "loser." He can tell himself (and everyone else) that he was a "disrupter," a "truth-teller," a Tribune for the "silent majority" who came up against the forces of corruption and entrenched, institutionalized media and political power. The therapeutic narrative narrative is already there when (not "if)" Trump does, inevitably and fatally, flag in the primaries.
Kenan Porobic (Charlotte)
We have the most wasteful democracy in the world, thus the worst. Our elections are a joke.

Why?

The objective is not to elect a male or a female, a democrat or a republican, a wealthy businessman, a Senator, a governor, a family member of the ex-President (a son, a brother or a spouse) but the best leader.

The best leader is a person with the best principles.

A person with the best principles doesn’t give us the sweetest promises for the future but has accurately predicted the present because he or she understands the power of principles correctly.

The best leader has already provided us with the best predictions in the past and warned us long ago about futility of the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and the Middle East, the dangers stemming from our alliance with Israel, the preconditions for the housing, tech and stock bubbles, the prerequisites for the financial meltdown great recessions, the certainty that the tax cuts would create the colossal national debt, the long-term negative effects of the free trade, the chronic trade deficits they would create as well as the loss of the American job and decline of the middle class…
paul (st Louis)
Remember that the Iowa caucus is a caucus --- a 3 hour meeting which ordinary people do not attend. Why we base our election on these undemocratic methods makes no sense to me. Let's have real elections where ordinary people can vote, not just the very conservative (or liberal in democratic caucuses).
Steve C (Bowie, MD)
You make it sound as though the public is dealing with a mad dog and in fact, that appears to be the case. We are hearing anger, threats, and insults (as in growling and snarling), but nothing in the way of meaningful and practical political plans. ". . . evidence that he's inferior or at least unexceptional." already abounds. You could even include "delusional."

He has ramped up his dialogue and is indeed screaming it from any available highest tower and the losers are the Americans who are supporting him.

Frank, Trump's ineptitude is already on display and for him to receive an old fashioned kick in the pants would do us all a lot of good.
Melinda (Dresden, Germany)
If nothing else, Trump's run has made it clear to the world that bullies, with their empty superlatives and fightin' words, appeal to the masses in the US, and these masses clearly lack the ability to take part in any kind of discussion ruled by logic instead of emotion, and in the end this leads to them voting against their own interests. In other words, Trump's run has put into focus one of the US's worst and darkest secrets: the lack of basic education required to become citizens in a representative democracy.
purpledot (Boston, MA)
I keep dreaming of the attack ads from the Democrats should Trump or Cruz be the Republican nominee. There is no American group they have not insulted or berated on multiple occasions. I hope the handlers in the Democratic Party are listening. And, I am beginning to believe that the establishment Republican Party is counting on the counter-attack from Democrats to straighten out the mess on their side. It's all very interesting. But, in agreement with other commenters, Trump dismisses losers, but will never see himself as one, ever.
sdw (Cleveland)
Frank Bruni has Donald Trump pegged correctly. Trump has, indeed, used his success in racking up gaudy poll numbers to prove or confirm his claimed superior ability.

The problem, however, with assuming that a failure by Trump to win in Iowa will be his undoing is that Bruni applies logic to reach this conclusion. Trump is a narcissist through and through, and he will simply claim an anomaly in Iowa. The exception which proves the rule. He will don the mantle of victimhood at the hands of a bunch of losers.

Donald Trump will need consecutive losses, each one more decisive than the last, before he will see the light and tire of the game.

The problem for the Republican Party and, frankly, for the country is that as the primary season moves south, it moves into the heart of Trump Territory. There, the low-information, modest income, poorly educated white men who cheer Trump’s rhetoric and bombast will increase in relative numbers among the Republicans.
tacitus0 (Houston, Texas)
What amazes me about Trump is that anyone thinks he's a winner. I mean, honestly, what has he done? Here is a list of his accomplishments:

1. He inherited a large sum of money and through his business activities he's turned it into a larger amount of money. But, if he'd simply invested that money in relatively safe and cautious ways (like most Americans would) he would have made more money.

2. He and his businesses amassed millions of dollars in personal debt and four of his businesses had to run for the protection of US bankruptcy laws.

3. He became a reality TV star on a show where he hobnobbed with and humbled B grade celebrities and that show got cancelled.

4. He's on his third marriage

5. He has a comb over.

Why should any of us be impressed by a inheritance baby, whose wealth is primarily the work of his father, who has managed four businesses into bankruptcy, ruined two marriages, thinks that hair arrangement looks good and is fooling people, and whose most recent accomplishment is becoming a failed reality TV star?
ACW (New Jersey)
There are many reasons to be appalled by Trump but this list doesn't really hold water.
Bankruptcy? Bankruptcy and business failure per se are not disqualifications. Thomas Jefferson, after his presidency, had to sell his library when his finances went south. Truman was famously derided as a 'failed haberdasher'.
Inherited wealth? FDR was an 'inheritance baby', as was JFK. (And the Kennedy money came from organized crime - bootlegging.)
Failed marriages? At least Trump divorced them. JFK kept his wife around as a political prop while sleeping with every other woman who came into arm's reach. LBJ, FDR, Eisenhower, Harding, Clinton, adulterers all. Reagan was the first divorced POTUS. Of recent presidents who stand out as models of uxorious fidelity, Nixon, Carter, and GW Bush come to mind.
Bad comb-over? How about JFK's spray-on tan?
Seriously, this is not American Idol. You could be the Elephant Man and Casanova combined, but still a great POTUS. If we shun ad hominem irrelevancies and stick to the issues, there's more than enough to demolish Trump.
Ellen K (Dallas, TX)
Once again, outside New York, daring to fight the status quo is respected. We cannot afford four to eight more years of status quo decisions. The economy is not going well. Macys and Walmart closing stores demonstrates a top to bottom soft economy. Those jobs are going away. Manufacturing jobs are going away. And this is the result of Obama's desire to appease the false gods of climate change rather than observing that there are economic trade offs a leader makes for the benefit of the people. Instead with his pen and his phone, this president has driven many into poverty and that is evidenced by increased social unrest and violence. That Cruz works to try to lead the people, who have been ignored and silenced because of fear of censure if they dare to utter anything remotely viewed as banned speech demonstrates that he has the welfare of Americans and American over that of political parties in mind. We need a leader. Hillary and Bernie won't cut it. Neither will Trump.
chickenlover (Massachusetts)
"Trump asserts that he’s qualified because voters have affirmed him, or at least because they seem poised to."

In other words the marketplace is the ultimate arbiter that separates winners from losers. Those of us old enough will remember that pet rocks were huge winners, way back at the end of the last century, but I suspect nobody in the same marketplace called it a useful product. It was transient fun, something that you chuckled and enjoyed for a fleeting period of time. Until it became extinct, oops, a loser.

So too will The Donald. Welcome to the marketplace that props you up high on a pedestal until it doesn't.
Carl Ian Schwartz (<br/>)
And people seem to forget that Mr. Trump primed his pump by hiring the cheering spectators for the Trump Tower rally the day he launched his campaign. $50/head buys more than a mediocre meal.
Bernard Masse (Montreal Quebec Canada)
Trump's first State of the Union address: "Members of Congress are all losers. You're all fired."
petey tonei (Massachusetts)
They probably ought to be! Thry are the only ones with job security, healthcare and coverage, while they deny the rest of the country the same health benefits!
pat knapp (milwaukee)
Not until he got them to approve a measure changing the name of the White House to the Trump House.
Grey (James Island, SC)
If I thought he'd do that, I'd vote for him.
N B (Texas)
Trump exudes bravura but he's more of a realist than he's given credit for being, But for his animus for women and minorities, I would vote for him. He would be an awful president though. He seems so impatient.
p. kay (new york)
N.B. Impatient? Trump, is a sick man. It's more than the fact that he has the
patience of a flea, he finds bodily issues abhorrent and has shown that. He is a
new version of Howard Hughes, with phobias galore, that are only going to get
worse. This is not a mentally healthy person and you've touched on a bit of it
with the impatience issue. I think pyschlogists will have a field day analyzing this
misfit for the presidency as time goes by.
Hope (WA)
You would actually vote for the least qualified person in history? You would actually put him at the table with world leaders and give him access to the nuclear code? The man has failed to exhibit any kind of critical thinking in his cartoonish presentation of himself. Astonishing and depressing.
petey tonei (Massachusetts)
He is dangerous. I have a daughter who is terrified.
anne n. moss (Bergen County, NJ)
Trump is the least scariest of the lot. I will not vote for him or any of the republicans but I hope he wins the nomination because the prospect of any of the others is too scary to consider.
RevWayne (the Dorf, PA)
Trump is the wildest and most bombastic of GOP candidates. He will deny losing as he shifts the blame to the Iowans. His denialism is heart and soul of the GOP. Bring a snowball into the Senate chamber and claim all the scientists who meticulously study the environment, the climate, the earth are wrong about a warming Earth. Dismiss the millions of hours of study with one snowball. This is a Party built on denial. Facts are dismissed, ignored, trashed. Trump and all his fellow candidates are scary along with most of their colleagues in Congress.
jm (<br/>)
He will never ever admit defeat or that he is not the best at whatever regardless of reality and the facts. The comments indicated in the NYT regarding his bankruptcy prove that point. Anyone else would admit that had a major setback that and that their judgment might not have been that good. What would be more interesting would be a psychiatrist diagnosis as to how people can become totally detached from reality and fashion it to suit how they want to perceive it. Very few of us have the money to insulate ourselves form reality to the degree that he does. Anyone remember the fable about the Emperor's New Clothes? Does it fit?
DM (Buenos Aires)
Trump has been making increasingly frequent conspiratorial references [1]. It seems likely that if his candidacy fades he will save face by blaming an unseen hand, and his core supporters will likely believe him.

[1] "Radical Islamic terrorism. And I'll tell you what, we have a president that refuses to use the term. He refuses to say it. There's something going on with him that we don't know about."
slim1921 (Charlotte, NC)
I don't worry about Trump. He'll find 5,342 ways to justify why he lost in Iowa (if, in fact, he does).

I worry about the people who think that a blowhard candidate who lies 90% of the time can honestly think he's qualified to be President of the Free World.

I weep for the weak minded in America. And hope that the sane ones will carry the day, both for the GOP and the general election.
Jane Rivers (Rockaway NJ)
Slim, I don't agree that Americans are weak-minded. They are functionally illiterate, tv watching, celebrity-enamoured idiots. People like Trump because he is a celebrity. So much easier to relate to that then one of those "smart Lib-ruls.
MS (New Jersey)
Congratulations, you have actuately described a serious, for real mental illness. So when is the media going to get serious and identify the real Trump problem?
Luboman411 (NY, NY)
I'm confused about why we're discussing this. I can't think of someone who is better deserving of a nice dose of reality than Trump. He'll survive his impending electoral losses, just like Mitt Romney, 2012's perennial winner du jour, survived his brush with loserdom. In both instances, the vast amounts of money both men surround themselves with will insulate and salve their precious egos.
georgiadem (Atlanta)
I still say that Trump cannot fathom a world where he is not the "best/greatest".
That world simply cannot exist. Thus the Trump who would not take a pledge to not run as a third party candidate will emerge. Trump's ego will not allow him to not run. Hello 2000 and Ralph Nadar, but with a redder and more hateful tone. Trumpeters will flock to the polls to waste their vote and the GOP will not know what happened.
ajax (W. Orange New Jersey)
Actually losing is only way out of his conundrum.
If he wins (I hope not) then he would have to make good on all the idiotic promises and hyperbole.He will fail and then be a fool for history.
If he loses however,he tweets incessantly as to how inept the new president is because a wall wasn't built or mexico didn't pay for it.
Matthew Hughes (Wherever I'm housesitting)
"f he wins (I hope not) then he would have to make good on all the idiotic promises and hyperbole."

If he wins, he will invoke emergency powers and rule by decree and terror. The model is Benito Mussolini. Under il Duce, the Italian trains still did not run on time, but anyone who drew attention to that fact was arrested and punished.

Trump's candidacy has not been "business as usual." Why would people expect his presidency to be like any other? Fascists do not worry about public opinion or criticism from The New York Times.
morphd (Indianapolis)
The irony is that Trump would, if he met them on the street without knowing their political affiliation, characterize perhaps 80% or more of the people who support him as losers.
Julia Holcomb (Leesburg)
that few?
CPMariner (Florida)
Not really. Unable to accept the mantle of loser, Trump will find rhetorical oratory to redefine himself as a winner by reason of having exposed the establishment, the corruption, the "wrongness" of everyone else. One way or another, if he loses his loss will become a win in some form or another. It will prove something, and justify... himself.

But you know, to me it really doesn't matter. In a perverse kind of way, better Trump than Cruz. Trump is the sort of man who would be satisfied to relish the trappings of office and prance his way through a term. Cruz is a dangerous man.
sherry (Virginia)
I have learned not to underestimate the danger of ignorance.
Charles (Tecumseh, Michigan)
I am a Republican, and I do not favor Trump or Cruz as the nominee, but I am rooting for Cruz in Iowa for just the reason you cite in this column. Unfortunately, even if Cruz does prevail, most Trumpians will be unmoved, because they seem immune to facts when it comes to their support of The Donald, but it will dent his aura, and hopefully the rational conservative vote will coalesce around Rubio in New Hampshire. If Cruz can defeat Trump in Iowa, and Rubio can defeat him in New Hampshire, there is hope.
Peter Tenney (Lyme, NH)
Mike Edwards (Providence, RI)
For this hypothesis to work, wouldn't Mr. Rubio needed to have offered proposals that were superior to Donald Trump's at last Thursday's debate?
He looked woefully inexperienced debating Mr. Trump on trade agreements with China.
LB (Del Mar, CA)
Completely agree and have long thought that Trump has long shown himself to be a narcissistic, egomaniac trust fund baby who while he may be a great showman has always been a mediocre businessman who is walking proof of the saying "How do you make a small fortune? Start with a large one." However the real question that needs to answered is why so many Americans can relate to and somehow believe this man will help them if he becomes President?
Diana (Centennial, Colorado)
We will all be losers if a Republican wins the Presidency. Never mind Trump losing the Iowa Primary. He will just declare people in Iowa losers and be on to New Hampshire. A person with that size ego doesn't recognize failure. That type of person blames his or her failures on others.
CMH (Sedona, Arizona)
Nonsense, Frank. It won't make any difference if Trump comes in second in Iowa. Now, it he comes in fourth, that would be a problem for him. Then he would be a loser.
lesothoman (New York, NY)
Sorry Frank, if Trump loses Iowa, he'll just say that Iowans are stupid. Don't you remember what Christie said when confronted with the fact that many from New Jersey don't want him to be President? He interpreted that as their love for him and their unwillingness to allow him to abandon them for the White House. Your mistake is that you assume these politicians are rational and allow facts on the ground to alter their thinking. But it is the other way around. Their thinking continually parries the facts on the ground! So, we have an unemployment rate of 5% - incidentally, 1% lower than what Mitt promised Americans - yet the party of Trump and Christie maintains that Obamacare is a certified job-killer. Should Trump fail to get the nomination of his party, he will conclude that he won and we lost. Let's just think of that 'hair' atop his head as having extraordinary powers of insulation, of keeping facts from penetrating that skull with its many fixed ideas.
N B (Texas)
Republican Iowans are stupid. Voting your soul but not the life you have left is stupid because Cruz is so not Jesus like or Moses like or Solomon like. Cruz is a false prophet. A mean spirited, cruel false prophet.
Iced Teaparty (NY)
This assumes that there is reality testing on the part of his clientele. Donald Trump is quite obviously a loser and that's why so many Republicans like him, because they're also losers.

So if Trump loses it makes no difference to any of his supporters. They know he's a phony, but then they're phony's too, so whether he's a real or image, strong or weak, ultimately doesn't matter.

Next episode please, says the Republican.

The Trump story is Downton Abbey for Republicans.
Tom Cuddy (Texas)
Trump's popularity, even if deflated, shows a very disturbing tendency in present US politics. Trump is running as a fascist ( who knows what he actually believes) and exuding power on a personal level is the blueprint for such a 'strong' leader. His losing to Cruz in Iowa would make a huge dent in this image, but other fascist leaders have suffered setbacks on their way to power. I am afraid losing in Iowa might kill his chances this time, but it might not. I also thought criticizing John McCain as a loser for getting shot down would kill his campaign. I was wrong.
Thomas (Branford, Florida)
Erasure of the gaudy prelude, indeed. None of the wannabes are worthy to replace the current president. Perhaps Trump least of all. If he does lose a primary or two, I expect he will announce that he is going to be spending more time with his family. Isn't that what is always said?
ron (wilton)
Which family.
LBJr (<br/>)
Which one?
David Gregory (Deep Red South)
Donald Trump will not become our President. It is obvious the institutional Republican Party does not want him and most voters are not stupid enough to vote for him.

Likewise, Hillary will not become our President. Like Jeb Bush, she is the darling of the institutional party, but anathema to much of the base and many independent voters.

Get used to President Bernie Sanders and Bernie as the head of the Democratic Party once he secures the nomination. With a new Sheriff in town the Third Way types that currently run things will need to seek employment.

Sounds like a promising future to many like myself.
Hope (WA)
A pipe dream. An elderly socialist will never win in a general election but he may take enough votes from Hillary to leave room for a Republican president to remake the Supreme Court. Feel good about that.
Bob Brown (Tallahassee, FL)
Don't forget that Bernie is 74 years old, and there are zillions of people in the graveyard who didn't get to 74 (or 75 or...). So we must think very hard about Bernie's possible Vice-President. The odds are substantial that he/she will be asked to finish Bernie's first (or second) term...and then run for his/her own Presidency.
Babel (new Jersey)
If you believe a candidate who is a self described socialist has the slightest chance of winning in the U.S., then perhaps it is time to stop drinking the Kool aid.
Fairfieldwizard (Sunny Florida)
When (not if) he is routed by Cruz or Hillary or Bernie, I assure you that we will all be losers; every one of us. How do I know this? Because Donald will tell us so. We didn't ever understand him and never deserved him. Such is the thinking process of a classic narcissist.
lydgate (Virginia)
I don't think Trump will fall apart if he loses in Iowa. He'll have a million excuses: the caucus process is too arcane, the winner in Iowa often fails to win the GOP nomination, the Des Moines Register and other media outlets were biased in their coverage, etc., etc. In business, Trump hasn't always "won;" he's had serious setbacks, but when has that ever led him to concede fallibility? A narcissist like Trump will always consider himself to be the best, even when the facts indicate otherwise, and will always find a way either to blame his failures on others or characterize them as successes, like the bankruptcies.

Reports of Mr. Trump's political death have been exaggerated many times already: he couldn't possibly survive belittling John McCain or Megyn Kelly or Mexicans or Muslims, but he did. He just powers on through with bluster and bravado, and there is no reason to think that he will treat political defeats any differently. I'd like to think that most Americans can see through his act, but only time will tell.
James Lee (Arlington, Texas)
Trump's business career demonstrates his capacity to recover from repeated failures. He has experienced several bankruptcies, which he now celebrates as proof of his shrewd business sense. He might well spin a loss in Iowa or New Hampshire as proof that those 'Yankees" (for a southerner, anyone north of the Mason-Dixon line qualifies as a Yankee) reject his southern, Christian-oriented values. This gambit could help him do well in the southern primaries that follow in March.

I have no use for Trump as a candidate or a person, but it is always a mistake to underestimate a demagogue, especially one whose checkered business career has witnessed so many near-death experiences. Like a political version of Dracula, it may take the Republican convention to drive home the stake that ends his candidacy. Otherwise, the Democrats had better check their supply of silver bullets for the general campaign.
sherm (lee ny)
When you think about it, a real possible road to victory is for Trump to just leave the pack, with their vacant dogma bred bluster, and jump to proposing solutions to real world issues like global warming, infrastructure decay, and wealth concentration. Sure, these are right wing untouchables, but mainly because the voices of the right wing are incapable of evolving.

He might have to walk away from his nasty immigrant and wall building pronouncements. He could get away with just saying he was misunderstood, and the mainstream media will let it go. By force of personality, arrogance, and ego he could turn himself into an Eisenhower (interstate highway system), Nixon (went to China), Reagan (great smile and nice hair due} Republican.

Since he presents himself as the great builder, he should be able to sound authoritative about energy and infrastructure. But above all, by jumping to mainstream issues he could send the right wing ideologues scurrying for cover, and give their supporters a new view of the world.

Come on Donald, leave the tent and find your own way.

I know, it sounds like a fantasy.

.
Prefernottodisclose (New York)
Frank Bruni exaggerates the importance of Trump losing Iowa by arguing that once Trump loses he's lost. Not so. The obvious reality is that once Trump loses, outwardly he will spin the loss as the fault of somebody's foul play or something out of his control and as insignificant in any event. Inwardly Trump will hold a grudge against whoever beat him and be twice as motivated to win the next contest in revenge. The people who are for Trump are not thoughtful and will buy into his spin.

Further, Trump can be the comeback kid. In fact, he's done it before by nearly going bankrupt and recovering. In short, this "Existential Pickle" article is a waste of everyone's time.

Frank Bruni could much better spend his time writing a more balanced analysis of what makes Trump appealing, what his weaknesses are, and how Trump's demagoguery is a threat to America and our political system.
Jobim (Kingston, NY)
Trump and the entire cast of Republicans hopefuls are frightening to me.
I will vote in the Democratic primary and then for the for that victor, in the November election. Until then, no more talk of the Republican field. Never have I felt such fear for the future of these United States. Please Frank, new topic.
Peter (Bisbee, AZ)
Even arrogant vulgarians like Trump can, on occasion, perform a necessary if unintended service for the Republic.

For decades GOP politicians always responded with "class war" whenever the timid Dems might be brash enough to raise issues of economic inequality. Hyperbolic, of course, but it seemed to work.

Now, thanks mostly to Trump, we actually ARE in the midst of a great class war--Oh, the karma!--between the GOP underclasses (who've received little more than red-meat rhetoric) and the party's wealthy elite who, up to now, have received all the privileges that truly matter.

Besides scaring the begeezus out of half the country, this split in the GOP may be Trump's lasting contribution to political clarity.
JT NC (Charlotte, North Carolina)
One of the best pieces I've read on Trump's psychosis. He really has many of the characteristics of a fascist, e.g, , the elevation of "the leader" who "always knows best" above any doctrine or philosophy of governing, and the search for scapegoats (Mexicans and Muslims) against whom he foments hatred among his ignorant followers. Truly scary. Unfortunately, Ted Cruz is even worse, with his "Texas values" and designs of a Christian theocracy. What a choice. I'm a Southerner, but all I can say (in honor of New York values) is "oy!"
hm1342 (NC)
Donald Trump will continue to run as long as he thinks he has a chance to win, just like everyone else. Whatever the "pickle" is that Frank wants to discuss is irrelevant. Each candidate has set themselves up in one way or another for potential failure. For most it's lack of name recognition, which will not be a problem for Trump. Another is a position on any number of issues that might play well to the base but will present problems in the general election - immigration comes to mind. The constant obsession over Hillary Clinton is definitely a problem in my eyes.

Most of the so-called "upper tier" candidates are no more convincing or ready to be president than the ones polling in the single digits. But they all have their own Achilles' Heel. But in the end, Mr. Bruni, Trump really doesn't care what you or anyone else has to say about him. You're just another in a long line of critics who's giving him free press.
brighteyed (01720)
Don't fret about the Donald. If it happens, it will be as water off a duck's back. He has a solid unique constituency that will not desert him. The Republicans will yet need him to go 3rd party to deny Hillary 50.1% of the electors and throw the election to the House of Representatives to choose the winner. That's 14th Amendment talk, y'all!
Fabio Carasi (Dual-universe resident: NYC-VT)
Dream on, Mr. Bruni. Even if Trump loses in IA (as a Bernie Sander's supporter I hope he doesn't) it won't make a difference.
You know why? Because Trump is sincere: he is as dumb and has the sense sense of humor as as a toilet seat but he is so infatuated with his own delirium he actually believes the insanities he is spewing.
His adversary is Cruz, a phony and a liar: even GOP voters, except the rapture-crowd Evangelicals, have figured it out.
Trump will survive IA and will take NH.
If I believed in God, I would think this is actually his/her divine plan.
WTM (Spokane, WA.)
Trump can't lose. Should his political ambitions not pan out, he'll seamlessly segue-way back to his billionaire's life with his billionaire buddies and army of sycophants. There will be losers, however. It will be the usual suspects. The sad little people who have been losing since Reagan, supporters politicians and policies that used and abused them for thirty five years. They are the ones who borrowed the mantel of winner from Trump. They are the lost, poorly educated, destitute Trump supporters who will suffer the burden of his eventual withdrawal from this season's contest. Trump will merely get on with his triumphal life.
Bluevoter (San Francisco)
Back in the Nixon era, thanks to Ron Ziegler, statements that were no longer true were said to be "inoperative". No retractions, no excuses, no apologies. That approach can serve Trump, and other Republicans, very well. In an effort to seem more moderate during the general election campaign, it's easy to imagine the Republican nominee (other than the Canadian) declaring his previous statements to be inoperative. Of course, Trump can say the same about his previous statements to the Times or to any other statement that turns out to be inconvenient. Politicians are shameless.
Kenan Porobic (Charlotte)
Who is the best qualified person to be the next President of the USA?

That would be an individual capable of speaking the truth, conducting the basic logical operations and being brave enough to warn us when it matters the most – at the moment it’s possible to preempt the problems.

That would be a naturally born American citizen who told us in the timely manner that the unconditional support of Israel would put us onto the confrontation course with the Muslim world, that the support for the local dictators would put us in the conflict with the locals, that the first Gulf War would alienate the Sunni population, that the Bush tax cuts would saddle us with the enormous national debt, that the real estate bubble would lead to the financial meltdown, that the free trade would lead to the chronic trade deficits, enable the export of the American jobs and industries overseas and ruin the standard of living of the middle class.

If you want to correctly assess the strength of the US economy, balance the federal budgets immediately!

The longer we refuse to balance the budgets, the longer we will stay on the wrong course and the more we will harm our country because the moment of reckoning will come sooner or later.

When did we the last time have a leader capable of meeting those requirements?
Lona (Iowa)
The caucuses reward a campaign's organizational skills since you have to mobilize your caucus goers and keep them from switching preference groups at the caucuses. Inability to out organize Barack Obama was Hillary Clinton's weakness in 2008. (I was a Hillary volunteer in 2008 and an Obama volunteer in 2012, so I experienced both campaigns). It's no surprise to me that the Clinton campaign is being out organized. If Saunders' campaign followed the Obama campaign organizing model, it would out organize anyone else by a careful attention to individual caucus goers which I have not experienced from the Clinton campaign so far.
Asher B. (Santa Cruz)
I suspect Bruni hasn't spent as much time with personality disordered individuals as I have. Fair enough, I happen to be a mental health practitioner. Of course I haven't personally run a full in-person valid assessment on Trump, but if ever a diagnosis of narcissistic personal disorder applied at a distance, it does here. Which means: it doesn't matter if he "loses." He'll merely redefine the stakes. That's how it works with mental health disorders. If you show someone delusional that there is no camera behind the curtain, they don't get cured; they find another camera. The same will happen with Trump if he loses Iowa or any other aspect of the campaign. He'll redefine what happened so that he can keep conning himself, rather than facing the sadness inside. After all, the great con job of the campaign is not Trump conning voters, it's Trump conning himself. It's just that conning voters has such very worse possible stakes.
Bernardo Izaguirre MD (San Juan,Puerto Rico)
I agree with you in part,but this guy is going to have a sad end.He is damaging his brand beyond repair.This is not good for his business.He is hurting others, but he is also hurting himself.That is what happens in mental illness all the time.He is a pathetic ,insecure, rich kid, that to prove his manhood, has to call attention to himself all the time.He will fall and fall badly.Just wait.
SQ22 (Dallas)
He has an unusual sense of shame. He's shame free everyone else is "Too, Disgusting!"
MC (New Jersey)
Bruni has this analysis of Trump totally wrong.
If Trump loses to Cruz in Iowa, he will just declare Iowans to be the losers.
If he does not get the Republican nomination, then Republicans will be the losers.
If he makes it to the General Election and loses, then Americans will be losers.
He will never be the loser in his mind - that's how Trump's world works.
He lies constantly - claiming that he never said that McCain was not a war hero (even though we all heard the recording), that he never mocked a reporter's disability (when we all saw that he did), that he saw thousands of Muslims in NJ celebrating the 9/11 attacks (when we all know it did not happen), about the 45% tariff on China, about women, about Mexicans, about Muslims - non-stop lies that his campaign is built on, that a third of the Republicans see as PC-shattering truth-telling.
He has failed at every business venture (casinos, airline, university, etc.) outside of real estate and reality TV, but he still sees himself as the ultimate winner, never a loser.
Losing Iowa will not make Trump a loser in his delusional world - he will simply lie and declare himself a winner - that's the real Trump brand.
Norberts (NY NY)
I'm not sure what polls "suggest" Cruz is leading in Iowa. Most I've seen have Trump and Cruz in a statistical dead heat or Trump leading Iowa. This brings us to the existential pickle of the media when it comes to coverage of Trump.

The media today, what is left of it, can no longer assume its primacy as the gatekeeper of opinion and thought. Sadly social media, mixed with the democratization of other forms of mass communication have supplanted that role. Trump knows this.

Trump has hit a nerve not only commensurate with the American voters' distaste for "puppet" candidates who pretend to be honest brokers but also the media which participates in the puppet show.

Many media outlets gin up the idea of globalization, free markets, the importance of education, open borders, etc. But this is simply the echo chamber for a set of elites that use these messages to push down labor rates globally, consolidate financial power and economic privilege at the expense of a dwindling middle class. The American people sense this now more than ever and have had enough.
carl99e (Wilmington, NC)
It would seem that we as human beings have always through out history have always had a place in our hearts for a good narrative. Even a poor, doubtful, narrative given in a convincing manner could or would prove both popular. convincing and effective. This is not entirely bad since it is the way we are "wired." That is human nature. The problem lies when we are duped with a story or landscape of such outlandish or outrageous consequence that we utterly loose our grasp of reality. Fact and fiction become one and the same. But today, as never before, we have "instruments" at close hand which can bring us a wealth of knowledge that here to fore did not exist and with ever increasing abundance. Thanks for the comment section for one great source of knowledge, often sparing me countless hours of research. And for all those writers and contributors, I give my thanks for the rational thought and thinking.
Doug Terry (Way out beyond the Beltway)
I have a feeling that Trump's support is a mile wide and an inch deep. The major media have puffed up Trump's potential based on what are likely to prove shaky polls. People say they prefer Trump in greater numbers simply because there are too many other candidates dividing the rest of their potential preferences. Besides, there is a major cohort of America who believe that if someone is famous, if they have been on television for years, they are ip so facto a big deal. Hey! He's famous! He wants to be our president! Why not? These same people voted for the quarterback of the high school football team for student council president.

All of this has put reporters and commentators in a double back flip trying to puzzle what has happened. How can it be a person with no policy, no experience in govt., no credibility as a thinker or intellectual and no real plans for the country get more support than anyone else? Calm down. Now isn't the time to panic. March? Yeah, that might be the month for jittery nerves and OMG reactions

What is happening this year is just another variation of what happens every four years: someone gets or appears to get a big lead based on early speculation, random polls and the combined wisdom of political reporters and commentators. We are in a different era now, however, because the power of major media to control the narrative is being savaged by social media, right wing talk shows and blogs and, to a lesser degree, a desire for change for its own sake.
john petrone (ponte vedra beach, fl.)
Sounds just like 1964. Remember Goldwater? Of course you do.
Rita (<br/>)
It is my sincere hope that everyone will vote for qualified candidates, not blowhards or folks banking on television cred. But let's get real, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, to name a few are not ready to rule either. From wht I have seen the best theing the RNC has done is to turn what was once a satisfied population to a back-biting, hating, jealous people awaiting each and every opportunity to kill or wage war against any unfortunate perceived enemy. Living in a democratic society requires that we apply the most uncommon of all necessary qualities. . .commonsense. We as a nation cannot win every battle, quash every perceived enemy. eliminate every risk, dictate how other countries ought to treat us/its populations, be the 911 for the world or give birth to every baby. We can control ourselves, yes and respect the laws of the land. We must provide for our people because that is the true resource of the United States, not those folks who seek to set corporation greed over the real, tangible needs of its people. Long live the Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warrens whom, I hope will become our next president. If not, Hillary is ok. As Bill Maher said ; if you can't have the fish, take the chicken', America!
Stephen Bartell (NYC)
The fame element is a big part of Trump's success for far.
Like Reagan and Schwarzenegger, americans associate fame with being "real".
Californians thought they were getting the Terminator, but just got someones ego trip.
I read that Hillary laughed when told that Arnold won, which was the correct response.
Kenan Porobic (Charlotte)
America doesn’t have at our service a single candidate from both mainstream political parties remotely qualified to serve as the next president of the US.

The last one that was smart and patriotic enough to serve as the POTUS was Jimmy Carter.

How should we analyze our presidents?

If they have the presidential security for life, they are supposed to serve their country faithfully all life long, regardless of their family ties, campaign donations, book deals, speaker fees or partisan loyalty.

They have to serve their country. The oath is life-long.

If I were able as an averagely smart person to correctly predict the futility of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq in 2002 and 2003 respectively, the housing bubble and the financial meltdown in 2004, that the Bush tax cuts would result in the colossal national debt, or that the free trade would result in the colossal trade deficits, export of the American jobs overseas and ruin the American middle class, everybody could have done it.

There were only two prerequisites – loyalty to the right principles and loyalty to the people.

How many of our presidents have warned us correctly over the last three decades?

Only Jimmy Carter has been willing to say the politically incorrect things in advance, thus endangering his personal likability and ratings to honestly serve our country at all cost!
Arthur Silen (Davis California)
If last Tuesday's debate is any measure of Trump's standing within the Republican Party's contention of presidential hopefuls, Trump's undeniable deficits are being given scant consideration by Republican primary voters, and his attack on his closest rival, Ted Cruz, regarding Cruz's Canadian birth as a constitutional disqualification for becoming president, is taking its toll. The fact is that Trump's candidacy is a roiling contradiction of every position he has taken on particular issues, and a sizable contingent of probable Republican primary voters seemingly could care less. But they love his style.

Cruz is a better orator, and a much better debater than Trump, but Trump held his own on the birth citizenship issue, and he delivered a knockout punch to Cruz on "New York values".

The problem with the Republican primary race, and this applies to Hillary Clinton's quest for the Democratic nomination, is that voters tend to vote their opposition to a particular candidate rather than their preference. No matter what Trump is saying at any particular moment, he comes across as authentic, and authenticity is the last quality anyone would attribute to his opponents, including Clinton, should she be matched against him in the general election. That was Ronald Reagan's secret weapon against his opponents, all of them. That was also George W. Bush's secret to success.

That is precisely why the Framers of the Constitution created the Electoral College.
Bhaskar (Dallas)
Dear Mr. Bruni,
You concluded by saying it is Trump’s pickle, not a regular pickle, but one on Trump's terms. If Trump loses Iowa, he will deem those voters as losers and stupid. To Trump and his many fans, he will continue to be the winner and the greatest.
Deejer (<br/>)
Nice analysis, Frank, but the trouble is that he has an out -- arguably -- with Iowa. It's not really an election -- it's "caucuses" whatever those are. He can trash the process and say, "watch me in New Hampshire" where he may well win.
B.C. (Austin TX)
Years ago when I wrote for my college newspaper, one of our columnists came up with a great saying: "Political punditry from undergraduates is just really unbecoming."

I assume Bruni is well past his undergrad years, but this column reads like something an overly earnest sophomore would pen. Bruni takes a concept open to interpretation (Trump is all about "winning"), interprets it in a very narrow way and runs with it ... off a cliff.

When you're running for a party's presidential nomination, "winning" can reasonably be expected to mean "winning the nomination." There's no reason to think that, because he finishes second in Iowa, Donald has come across a serious obstacle to that goal.

If Bruni were a sports columnist, this is the equivalent of writing that Golden State's loss to Denver in a meaningless game the other day destroyed the Warriors' sense of invincibility and must inherently amount to a crisis.
Wisecarver (Birmingham, MI)
Couldn't help thinking of this scene from the Original Star Trek series:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6o881n35GU
Roy (Fassel)
Trump followers are angry and irrational. He knows how to get their embrace. The problem for him is that many of his followers are Evangelical Christians who eventually vote of the "choice" issue and other such issues. When these , mostly rural, and mostly the "uninformed" and they realize Trump is much more a liberal and a conservative, they will dump him in a "New York second." Cruz will not get most of those who leave Trump. Bush might.
bes (VA)
I think I can use some of this reasoning to make the case that Trump is not and never has been Trump. If only that could be true in the physical world as well as in the theoretical.
Nan Socolow (West Palm Beach, FL)
Trump's doc Harold Bornstein is afflicted with the same carny-barker language his "astonishingly excellent" (sic) patient, Donald Trump, exhibits every time he opens his mouth. "Losers" are all the people who don't genuflect and kowtow to The Donald's very questionable brilliance. He won't be "the greatest jobs president that God ever created". He won't make America great again. He rejects humility. He is all narcissistic blatherskite and braggardry and bullying. In short, a loser. He is handy - to give the devil his due - with his 140-character social media Tweets. Sharp as a serpent's tooth and mean as cat's pee. Trump is now coming down from his peak of Chutzpah, his Mt. Hubris, hedging his bets on winning Iowa. Trump is being caught like a hamster in his cage of existentialism - to win, everyone else loses, but for him to lose would pull the stuffing out of The really HUGE Raggedy Andy doll we recognize as the Donald. Time will tell (within the next few weeks) whether Trump has the right stuff to go the distance in his sans-pareil wannabe POTUS campaign, or whether he'll fold and disappear - save for his curling ruby slippers like the Wicked Witch of the East, when Dorothy Gale's Kanas house fell on him in The Wizard of Oz. This GOP candidate has so fr successfully pulled the wool over his hoi-polloi's heads. The word "defeat" does not exist in Trump's vocabulary. People recover from setbacks in life, but if they don't admit to failing, then there is no recovery.
Carol Colitti Levine (Northampton, Ma)
Ha! Now you are just toying with us. Pickle indeed. Even a sour loss in Iowa will be spun as sweet gherkin by the Trumpster. You conjured that Vlasic Groucho bird with a cigar and a grin. Hilarious!
Elise (Chicago)
I still don't know a Woman, Black person or Latin person who will vote for Trump. At least Cruz would get the Latin vote. Not on the merit of his character though. I keep wondering what Trump expects out of all this activity. The flying all over for strange rallies of mostly white men and a few wives. Kinda reminds me of the Charlie Sheen thing. And Cruz was born in Canada.

George Wallace had been born in Arizona territory before it became a USA state. His run for president was saved based on that Arizona was made a USA state after the fact, before his run. And John McCain was born on a USA territory in Panama on a military base. There could be an argument made he was on USA declared soil. Cruz can't make any of those arguments and I don't think he would survive a supreme court ruling about his Canadian birth.

I believe that Trump pretty much died with how he responded to the Megyn Kelley question. No Woman in her right mind would vote for such a guy. And Cruz was born in Canada and couldn't survive a supreme court ruling.
HN (<br/>)
Given how Trump has talked away his bankruptcy losses (I was never personally bankrupt), I can see him talking away a potential Iowa caucus loss (it's not that I'm a loser, it's just that my campaign manager screwed up, so I fired my him).
Slooch (Staten Island)
Unfortunately, the column's suggestion that one defeat will puncture Trump's balloon is wishful thinking. Muhammad Ali was the greatest, and he lost, and he carried on being the greatest by avenging his defeat. I'm sure some of Trump's deals died, and he rebounded. And I'm sure that those who want to vote for him understand, at some level, that his talk is hyperbole. It's hype and swagger that they like.
Dave (Auckland)
If Trump loses Iowa, he will call Iowans losers.
ikenneth (Canada)
Oh Frank! I just love your description of Cruz as a "natural born irritant" it made me smile on a day that I am spitting mad at all the Republicans putting the worst possible face on the Administration's successful hostage negotiations.
OSS Architect (California)
Donald Trump's appeal is that he's "titanium". Impervious to failure. This is not a quality you want in a President. You want a President that can come back from endless rebuffs and failures, and keep going. On the national and International stage you rarely get your way. Nothing that we know about Mr Trump suggests he can handle this.
Mike (North Carolina)
Mr. Bruni has given many people a reason to root for Cruz in the Iowa caucuses even though they probably find Mr. Cruz no more appealing that they do Mr. Trump.
OldBoatMan (Rochester, MN)
Donald Trump -- not worthy of the ink used to print Frank Bruni's column.
And not worthy of any further comment.
AAE (Los Angeles)
Trump has been a prolific user of bankruptcy to shelter himself. Most people view bankruptcy as failure and an indication of gross mismanagement. Not Trump of course. He sees it as yet another sign of his yuge cleverness. I seriously doubt that a loss in Iowa would dent his ego or his narrative. It would take several consecutive primary losses to derail him. Right now, that doesn't look likely.
minh z (manhattan)
Mr. Bruni knows as well as anyone that the candidate isn't decided on these early election states. Trump is dominant, has blown the other candidates out of the water, and will remain dominant as the months tick closer to the convention.

This is an irrelevant sour grapes article that will change nothing.
jefflz (san francisco)
Trump is the Wizard of Oz reborn. He never has been and never will be a winner. It is all smoke and mirrors. Here is a man who inherited $200 Million in 1974 and nearly threw it all away on highly leveraged real estate deals in 1990, requiring 70 banks and numerous investors to bail him out. Here is a man who would have twice the assets he does now if he had merely placed his inheritance in modestly yielding investment funds. In other words, he has thrown away billions in acting out his self-proclaimed role as a Titan of business. Pull away the curtain and you will find a loser who has squandered a major portion of his family fortune.
Kalidan (NY)
Not so fast Frank.

So Cruz triumphs in Iowa; 'tis hardly the reason to rejoice. But of Trump I imagine there is no back tracking. He co-opted Nikki Haley rather nicely; her stinging words would have severely diminished another. He has survived the barrage from Fox noise makers who are now reduced to so much sheep, part of his flock. Seen the horsey grins from the likes of Lou Dobbs lately?

And could he have dreamed of better opponents. They are so brave, snarling, fierce in their hatred of Obama but so much giggling children otherwise. Christie will "kick his ass out to the curb." What a demonstration of tastelessness from this literal and figurative heavy. And then there was the Dauphin Jeb begging Trump to reconsider his position on Muslims during the debate. Could have been more knave-like?

After Trump loses Iowa, expect nothing short of a miraculous spin that makes it sound like nothing at all. I see him trouncing Christie in New Hampshire despite endorsement from a fuddy duddy newspaper. Like anyone reads anymore. Even if Trump is the nominee - which I am hoping he is - and loses to Hillary - which I am hoping he will - he will spin it as his victory and America's loss. Expect huge truculence. He does not have to fool us; he has to fool himself while ensconced among an army of sycophants - which would render him unrepentant and strident as ever. When it is all said and done, he will build himself another building at taxpayer expense and laugh at us.
James Igoe (NY, NY)
People like Trump, and maybe most people, typically, unconsciously, claim that victory is the result of their brilliance, and failures are because of [put some insultingly-named other that Donald can blame here]. Maybe it is the freeloaders, Hispanics, the liberal elite, the stupidity of Americans, backstabbers, cheaters, etc. The list of potential Trump blame targets is near-endless.
chambolle (Bainbridge Island, Washington)
Herr Trumpf has actually been a yuuuuuge loser, on more than one occasion, having been insolvent as an individual to the tune of nearly $1 billion in personally guaranteed bad debt, and having driven a number of corporate businesses into bankruptcy. But, like any good riverboat gambler and con man, he has addressed his failures in two ways: first, pretend they never happened and instead repeatedly call them 'great successes,' like his ridiculous deal for The Plaza and his spectacular folly in Atlantic City ; and second, foist the blame elsewhere and the losses on others who bought into his con, like the banks and investors he has stiffed for many hundreds of millions over the years.

In short, the portrait of Herr Trumpf as a wise and successful businessman, who scorns 'losers,' is a ludicrous distortion. Not merely a myth, but an outright fabrication, otherwise known as a lie. There, I said it. He's a liar, a loser, and a thief as well, if you count the creditors he has fleeced over the years.

This gambit may work for a private businessman, who can always just say 'so sue me' and move on. As President and Commander in Chief, I would say it's a wee bit problematic. 'Shoot from the hip and let the chips fall where they may' is not a great paradigm for the leader of the largest military and economic power on the planet. Not in my world anyway.

So, go buy your powerball ticket and vote for Herr Trumpf. Do you feel lucky, punk, do you?
If only it were so, Mr. Bruni! Mr. Trump has experienced any number of reversals, indeed several bankruptcies, in his long career. At several points his critics wrote him off as finished. I rather doubt that he will prove as fragile as you think. Rather, I expect that he will dismiss a defeat in, say, Iowa, without batting his eye or mussing his quiff. You folks in the media have already declared his campaign dead. You sound like you are singing, 'Maybe this time...' Yet again.
David Henry (Walden)
Trump's fanatics will convince themselves that any "defeat" is part of some dark conspiracy.

This is what rubes imagine.
ReV (New York)
Well, in my opinion Trump is already a big looser, just read the New York Times article about the Plaza Hotel. He overpaid to the tune of $407.5 million and was forced to sell it in humiliating fashion for much less than that.
The press, when they interview him, they need to confront Trump with the facts and expose these fundamental details. And if he tries to distort the truth they should show spine and professionalism.
Joe Scarborough is typical, his first question is tough, Donald deflects and that is the end because Joe does not follow through.
RK (Long Island, NY)
It's too early to fix an "L" label on Trump.

Cruz's lead in Iowa polls has been sliding. http://tinyurl.com/kvzkyg4 Assuming that holds true and Trump keeps harping on the "natural born" citizen issue, Trump may yet get a "W" in Iowa. Then watch out!

By the way, are you going to take a break from your two favorite topics, Trump and Cruz?
Chris Gibbs (Fanwood, NJ)
Well, if he did win the Iowa Caucus, he could join the last two winners, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee, both of whom went on to win . . . Oh, wait. Um. Never mind.
John Hall (USA)
I don’t believe anyone is expecting Trump to win Iowa handily. So if he doesn’t win, but is close, I doubt there will be much ado. Now if he loses NH and SC along with IA, that’s another thing. What Iowa is more than anything isn’t a confirmation for whoever is leading the polls, but rather a chance for one of the also-rans to validate their candidacy.
Bernardo Izaguirre MD (San Juan,Puerto Rico)
Under the swagger Trump is a very insecure person.He will be devastated by a loss in Iowa.For the good of our country I hope he loses and loses big.
craig geary (redlands fl)
Hair Trump certainly wins the prize for bankrupting the most casinos in world history, leaving his many investors holding large bags of guano. You know casinos, those money minting machines where the house always wins.
Two divorces and three marriages is, at least, above average.
He certainly won over my high school classmates James Dewar and Thomas Haas and my best friend in Viet Nam, Malcolm Grim of Long Island. All three of their names are etched on a long, low black wall in D.C.
Trump won by getting a doctors excuse, for a "bone spur" to dodge the Viet Nam draft.
The republicans have already nominated and elected two war dodging cowards, saint Reagan and George W. Bush, who went on to be the most disastrous Commander's in Chief in our history.
Maybe Trump can top them.
Trish (NY State)
"Hair Trump". Excellent. I guffawed into my coffee.
PETER EBENSTEIN MD (WHITE PLAINS NY)
You couldn't be more wrong. We are talking about a man whose companies have gone bankrupt and he carries on. I figured him out after his recent bout with Mr. Cruz. Trump styles himself as the quintessential tough, wise cracking, rise from the ashes, New Yorker with the hidden heart of gold. Think Rick in "Casablanca."

German: Can you imagine us in London?
Rick: When you get there ask me.
Major Strasse: How about New York.
Rick: Well there are certain sections of New York, Major, that I wouldn't advise you to try to invade.
Babel (new Jersey)
If Cruz ekes him out in Iowa, Trump will come roaring back in New Hampshire and South Carolina. And I am sure he already has a wise crack ready for such a losing event, because if there is anything Trump excels at it is to morph into different personalities and go with the flow. In the dog eat dog real estate world of New York Trump has been dodging obstacles and exceeding expectations his entire life.
Rick Gage (mt dora)
He'll still be "the best, the most, the greatest" fool to ever run for office in my time and we have all lived through W. and Palin. I was watching FOX news last night and saw a focus group moderated by Frank Lutz in which all the participants spoke like Donald Trump. The President was spoken of in outrageously negative superlatives and there were no specifics as to what made him the worst, the most criminal and the most dangerous. There were no specifics asked for either. It was just assumed he was by all in attendance. This type of voter will not be reflective as to why The Donald lost a particular caucus, they will just wait to be told by one of their authority figures how to think and it will be so. These people can't identify losers. If they could they wouldn't be in that focus group on that network in that party.
NM (NY)
Barbara Walters, in her "10 Most Fascinating People of the Year," 2015, asked Trump that very question - if he did not win, was he a loser?. He pondered that as thoughtfully as he's considered anything and then, sheepishly, said, that although he never thought of himself that way, yes, he would be one. He hastened to add that it would be a national loss, since he can make America great again.
His admission that yes, he would be a loser if he lost, may come back to haunt him. My prediction is that he will spin things to chalk up his defeat to someone else's fault, like when he wondered aloud what was wrong with the people of Iowa when Carson was polling higher, or blamed various media for numbers not in his favor. If pressed, he can shrug that Barbara Walters always gets it wrong.
&lt;a href= (Hanover , NH)
At Dartmouth in the 50's one of the champion downhill skiers used to characterized 2nd place as 1st loser. The Baron Von Trump couldn't have said it better. Will be interesting to see who is first loser in Iowa and NH
Socrates (Downtown Verona, NJ)
I'm not too concerned about Trumpolini.

His mad, torrid, public love affair with himself will continue long after he finishes his refreshing dip in the Presidential waters, his megalomaniacal ego having been sufficiently sated by a billion points of obsequious media light.

My concern is the press's existential problem.

Will the press survive without Trumpolini ?

Can Bruni, Dowd, Friedman, Collins, Brooks and Father Douhat and all the other Donald media sunflowers go on with their lives without Donald ?

It is the press who will be shattered when Trumpolini exits the stage for much greener pastures, leaving them with a broken media heart and no apparent reason for being, having been used and abused like a happy, dumb, young lover.

After seven or eight months of Trumpventilating, can the press learn to research and write again ?

Can the press reclaim some of its integrity from yesteryear when it served as the fourth branch of government by speaking truth to power ?

Will newspaper writers need to attend Trumpaholics Anonymous for the rest of their careers, hoping never to suffer a relapse into Trumpmania ?

Sure the press will always have Christian Shariah Law types like Ted Cruz and a giant right-wing rainbow of No-New-Tax-Nincompoops to write about, but there will always be that warm magical media memory when both time and public policy stopped and all was Trump with the world.

Donald Trump uses the press like a soon-to-be-ex-wife.

You're about to be dumped, Bruni !
hm1342 (NC)
"My concern is the press's existential problem."

The press has many problems (objectivity being number 1), but having nothing to write about certainly isn't one of them. If it's not Trump, it will be about someone else.
Robert Eller (.)
I doubt Trump will fade even if he does not get the GOP nomination.

With Trump's credibility among a substantial portion of voters, Trump's endorsement will be even more valuable to the GOP nominee than even Adelson and Koch Brother millions in campaign bribes.
Jwl (NYC)
Donald Trump's physical resemblance to Mussolini is indeed astounding, his actions no better. Interestingly, Frank Bruni is correct regarding Trump's psychological make up, it is actually fragile, and will not tolerate loss, so if he loses, how will Donald Trump deal with self loathing?
mancuroc (Rochester, NY)
This is a problem for Trump only in Bruni's mind. If things don't go quite the way Trump said they will, all he has to do is say he never said it. He will switch on a dime from being a winner to being the comeback kid.
Steve (Los Angeles)
He'll just say, "I wasn't really trying that hard. And for a guy who wasn't really trying that hard, I did awfully well."
Linda (Oklahoma)
How can anybody who has had to declare bankruptcy four times be considered a winner? If he can't manage his own business finances, why would anybody trust him to manage America?
R. Law (Texas)
linda - And lordy lordy who would believe DT's got an actual economic plan ?

It's another lying switcheroo like St. Ronnie pulled in 1980, saying he had a plan, only for his budget director David Stockman to admit after the election that the whole thing was made up, because " None of us really knows what's going on with these numbers ":

http://www.nytimes.com/1981/11/13/us/stockman-offers-reagan-regrets-keep...

Not to mention the ' trojan horse ' tax cuts.
mancuroc (Rochester, NY)
Linda, if anyone can (and many rich people can) use bankruptcy to emerge as a winner, Trump can. It's just one more way of managing his business to enrich himself.
Doug Terry (Way out beyond the Beltway)
Trump sees declaring bankruptcy as yet another sign of winning. He's proud of it. He sees bankruptcy as a strategic tool of business: dump all your obligations and promises onto other people, skip town with the money you've made and let the lawyers clean up the details. Bankruptcy was once a symbol of shame, now Trump thinks we should be proud of him. It means a company's bills couldn't be paid, that people who worked hard and spent their own money to deliver products and services get left holding the stick. The ability to walk away from huge obligations allows corporations to take huge risks, but it is, nonetheless, a sign of failure.

Trump reflects the current American ethos in which ethics and personal responsibility play no role, especially in business matters. He's on to something. All of America's major airlines have been through bankruptcy, shedding jobs, debts and union contracts along the way. Just dump the debts and start over. Presto! It is precisely because Trump manages his promotional business grounded in endless self promotion that he cannot be trusted. His techniques are based on the survival of the slickest, the quickest and the mean.

By the way, in times past, someone who made millions by taking millions from people in gambling halls would not even be considered a presidential timber, even if otherwise qualified. We seem to have a surging fundamentalist Christian right wing married to an amoral right wing political party.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
Merely coming in less than first in one election does not a loser make. Certainly not in his own mind, or his own rhetoric.
PM33908 (Fort Myers, FL)
It's not even an election--just caucuses...
Christine McMorrow (Waltham, MA)
Since when did the truth ever bother Mr. Trump? Like the proverbial forest crashing in a forest with nobody to hear, would the Donald stating he hadn't lost, when he did, mean he's speaking the truth?

If you are a proverbial liar, the line between truth and fiction is so fuzzy as to be nonexistent.
pjd (Westford)
If Uncle D behaved like The Donald at Thanksgiving dinner, everyone would simply roll their eyes. Next year, Uncle D would probably not be invited back by the hosts. Nobody enjoys a boor.

Except when the boor has money. The Americans who reflexively equate money with success, skill and intelligence, genuflect in front of wealth. Money is their god.

Time to lose Uncle D.
hm1342 (NC)
"The Americans who reflexively equate money with success, skill and intelligence, genuflect in front of wealth. Money is their god."

That group would include most politicians, irrespective of party affiliation.
pjd (Westford)
Hi hm1342 --

I agree and it's why American democracy is under siege from both sides of the aisle.
Kathryn Thomas (Springfield, Va.)
Indeed, the real god of too many Americans, the worship of wealth and also celebrity.
Matthew Carnicelli (Brooklyn, New York)
Frank, if Il Donaldo was both routed in Iowa and then lost New Hampshire, he would indeed have become a 2016 loser.

But the friends of Steve King (Iowa's uber-crackpot Republican Congressman) can be a bit out there, even for conservatives - and previous GOP candidates have proved that you can lose in holier-than-thou Iowa and still end up winning the nomination. And it appears than Trump is within the margin-of-error even in Iowa.

Trump has to win one of these two first primaries to retain his luster, and he's apparently - God save the Republic - on the way to doing just that.

Frank, I hope that you'll excuse me if I become increasingly flippant as we watch this train-wreck of a Presidential reality series proceed over the next few months. Because I fear that this electoral cycle, and its aftermath, is likely become one of those experiences in life in which if you're not laughing, you're crying. And before Trump and his henchmen are done, he'll give us plenty to cry about.
Patricia Burstein (New York City)
If he loses he'll fall back on another statement in his verbal arsenal:" It takes guts to do what I'm doing, running for President."
Mark T. (Henderson, NV)
"Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice." -- Barry Goldwater, just before his historic defeat in 1964.

"Extremism in furtherance of an ego trip is my advice." -- Donald Trump, just before his historic defeat in 2016.
query (west)
How clever. Trip up Trump with NO YOU ARE THE LOSER. Nyah nyah nyah nyah.

Trump just uses loser the way phony conservatives for decades use liberal. With imountiy. Bruni plays along, never called them on it.

It is just empty rhetoric. The mutliple marriages and bankruptcies should be a clue to the clueless. This kind of cleverness makes me want to like Trump'w wiliness because many of his own kind thathe is against really are losers.
Anne-Marie Hislop (Chicago)
My guess is that he can sustain it simply because he is a myth builder and will build a new myth. It will include denigrating the people of Iowa in some way, but blaming everyone from Cruz to the media for having distorted his greatness message. In his mind, he will have won in the hearts of Iowans, even if they didn't quite all show up at the polls. Where he will begin to founder will be in the minds of the voters, not in his own mind... or talk.
Ross (<br/>)
Exactly. Frank you underestimate his megalomania. If he loses in Iowa, those who didn't vote for him will be the losers, not him. If he was 't so damn smug with that puss of his one could almost feel A soupçon of pity for an aging windbag trying to stop the march of time with a can of hairspray and serial marriages to younger and younger women. Almost.
Debra (Formerly From Nyc)
Trump announced in the debate the other night that he would go back to "building buildings" if the campaign didn't "work out." Then he said that things will probably "work out" and thus would become President.

And Trump won't be a loser. He will have people begging him to speak for their organizations in order to inspire people to reach for their own dreams.

I write this as someone who doesn't even like Trump but know that he will never consider himself a loser. He cited "The Power of Positive Thinking" book in at least one speech or article. He'll blame Cruz or the voters but never himself.
Pedigrees (SW Ohio)
Building buildings? Trump has never built anything. Construction workers build buildings, not the Trumps of the world.
Debra (Formerly From Nyc)
I agree; I'm just quoting Trump.

At least Trump won't be anyone's VP and a heartbeat away from the Presidency.
Larry Eisenberg (New York City)
Come uppance for Trump? A delight,
It would be a laughter filled night,
But the price would be dear
With Ted Cruz, I fear,
Trump's pickle, but for us a fright.
J.B.Wolffe (Mill Valley CA)
That's the first chuckle of my morning's read, and now I hold my stomach.
Richard Luettgen (New Jersey)
It’s true that The Donald is reported as not inclined to any of the standard vices, such as drugs, tobacco or excessive alcohol; so, at 69, he might be quite a healthy specimen. But Dr. Bornstein’s take on him certainly sounds hyperbolic – the kind of thing Trump might have penned himself and asked a friend to sign. To his friends I’d simply repeat the ancient caution about being careful of the favors of princes. He certainly turned against Cruz on a dime.

Yet, I don’t see his characterization of himself as a “winner” who might lose the first few primaries as an “existential pickle”. The Times on Saturday reviewed his purchase of Manhattan’s Plaza Hotel (and a lot of other assets) at age 41, only to be found a few years later needing to sell it and many other baubles to avoid personal bankruptcy. He could claim that as a Phoenix story given his current wealth if he loses in Iowa and New Hampshire, not as the story of a “loser, loser, loser”.

But I’d be more concerned about whether Trump wins the nomination without once demonstrating that he has the capacity to bear down and get serious about a real vision for America and plans to get there … instead of nothing more than successfully pressing emotional buttons with bombast and demagoguery.
Robert (Out West)
I thought the column was about Trump, not Cruz?
R. Law (Texas)
He who shall not be named has a problem that can't be solved. He will never be the richest - numero uno - and there lots of women on the Forbes 400 who have bigger wallets than he, who always will. Has to slay him :)
stu (freeman)
It's entirely possible that if the man is elected he would restrict the use of the English language to the words "donald" and "trump."
R. Law (Texas)
stu - Everything about the man is compensation; he will never catch up with the many women ahead of him, who have huge, huuuuuge wallets.
Kathryn Thomas (Springfield, Va.)
Likely, he is America's Dear Leader. One thing I know for sure, as Oprah often says, should he lose Iowa, there will be no concession speech. Trump would rather cut out his tongue than acknowledge losing anything.

If there is a more apt definition of a loser than that, I don't know what it would be.
gemli (Boston)
None of the Republican candidates is putting forth realistic proposals. It’s all hyperbolic nonsense aimed at the low-information base, trying to whip up anger at the Democrats and continue the seven-year bashing of Obama. Trump simply echoes the essence of the other Republican candidates, which is to claim infallibility while have no viable ideas. He’s merely the spokesman for the party with nothing to say.

As Trump falls, so does the Republican Party. It has ceased to stand for responsible government. It has abandoned rational discourse. It is a train wreck, and the media give it outsized coverage because people enjoy gawking at these sorts of slow-motion disasters. We’re fascinated by the ineptitude and the unapologetic extremism. But there is a limit to how much of this we can tolerate.

The Republican Party is sick, and Trump is the rash it’s broken out in. The cure is failure. When Bernie or Hillary wins the presidency, the Republican Party will have to regroup. They’ll have to recall what it was like to share power, and how it felt to work with Democrats to achieve common goals. They’ll have to dial down the fundamentalist zeal and reacquaint themselves with the middle class.

Ironically, Trump’s loss could herald in a new, revitalized Republican Party. His extreme rhetoric could be just what we need to remind us of better days, when cooperation and mutual respect produced real winners.
R. Law (Texas)
gemli - What Trump, Cruz, et al are about used to be called rabble rousing.
stu (freeman)
@gemli: "The Republican Party is sick, and Trump is the rash it's broken out in." Priceless.
John Hall (USA)
Or a Trump win will spell the end to both parties as we know them.
Diana Moses (Arlington, Mass.)
They wiped out an entire season of the TV series "Dallas," retroactively, by characterizing it as a dream, as I recall. Surely there are equally dubious but creative outs to having painted oneself into a political corner.
ACW (New Jersey)
There's also the 'alternate universe' ploy. Trump would be right at home in the Empire with goatee'd Spock.
stu (freeman)
It seems to me that Mr. Bruni's "opinion" piece is so self-evident and so undeniably accurate as to defy a rationale for its publication. Unfortunately, there appear to be millions of Americans who are so impressed by The Donald's self-infatuation and rejection of self-control (let alone by his dismissal of the need for policy specifics) as to be willing to follow the man over the highest of cliffs even if that entails taking the nation over the precipice with them. As it happens, I had grown to despise this man long before he decided to gift the country with his presence on the political stage. Then again, I was raised in such a manner as to believe it preferable to earn the respect and praise of others as opposed to beating them to the punch by announcing (and exaggerating) one's own attributes Imagine if the greatest of men were to behave in the manner of a perpetual enfant terrible. Those who have counseled love, peace and tolerance would, in this political climate, be regarded as weaklings and losers. We would be rendering unto Caesar what is Caesar's while also crucifying those who would render unto God what is His. Sound familiar?
Michael Mahler (Los Angeles)
"Everyone wrote me off long ago, all the so-called experts said I would be out of the race by now. I came in second in Iowa, but the polls still show me #1 overall. Frankly, I don't know why anyone even bothers with Iowa, a bunch of losers in an insignificant state. I could buy the whole state."

When faced with cognitive dissonance, a discrepancy between certain beliefs and facts, people have an extraordinary capacity to rationalize and explain away that discrepancy. I am sure Trump is truly amazing at that.
Anar Cissie (NYC)
Exactly right. The punditry seems still not to understand Trump.
Blue state (Here)
Exactly. I suspect he's already crafted an exit narrative, maybe something about America not being ready for his genius.
Kevin Rothstein (Somewhere East of the GWB)
Donald will do what all good blowhards do and rationalize his defeat by claiming that Iowa is not a primary, but a caucus, and should not count.

Anyway, with Ted having issues with his unreported loan from Goldman Sachs, along with his Canadian birth, Frank's column may be rendered moot in a few weeks.

Trump never predicted he would win every state, so there would be no reason for the current front-runner to feel like a loser nor for his supporters to jump ship.

It's beginning to look like Springtime for The Donald, followed by a summer coronation and a tight fall election.

A little more than a year from today, we will truly be in a winter of discontent if a son of (New) York is taking the oath of office.
Debra (Formerly From Nyc)
Hopefully it will be Brooklyn's Bernie Sanders!!!
Not Hopeful (...)
Bernie Sanders is a son of New York.
pkbormes (Brookline, MA)
Just thinking of the tune (with horror) "Springtime for Donald, in America".
NA (New York)
The thing is, I don't believe Donald Trump really wants to be president. For a hilarious and pitch-perfect piece on his possible reasons for running this campaign, and how he's reacting to his unexpected success, see Douglas McGrath's "We Have a Serious Problem" in the most recent New Yorker.

One could also rent 'The Producers.'
Kevin Rothstein (Somewhere East of the GWB)
Springtime for Mein Trumpf.
Mark Thomason (Clawson, Mich)
I think the did start this for the fun of it, roughly the way Colbert ran for president. At first, he never expected it to get serious.

At some point, he was surprised to realize it was getting serious.

But he is still having fun with it. He could give it up tomorrow and be pleased at all the fun he had doing it. He'd also think it added value to his name and brand, far beyond any early expectation.

He's playing with the Republican Party, and with the country, and with us.
Donald Reif (Cedar Rapids, IA)
.....Winter for Canada and Mexico