I believe there is great distrust of the influence of insiders on the markets so regular people are keeping their cash on the sidelines. They believe that return of their "investment" is more important than return ON their investment.
2
The US has generations of new workers who are strapped with large education debts. The earnings that would have purchased homes and cars are going to finance companies and the government. This includes blue collar workers who paid for training at tech schools and "colleges." Until the student debt problem is resolved, the economy will continue to tank.
Cheap gas is great.....if you can afford a car. The American dream of the 50's and 60's turned into a nightmare full of LLC vampires sucking the life blood out of the country, collecting on real debt and zombie debt.
Cheap gas is great.....if you can afford a car. The American dream of the 50's and 60's turned into a nightmare full of LLC vampires sucking the life blood out of the country, collecting on real debt and zombie debt.
1
Stock market experts are consistently all over the place in their analyses. High paid technical analysts focus on the numbers. They use the world's great mathematicians like Fibonacci to guide complex calculations of market data to derive market levels of particular significance. Many say that if the S & P. closes below 1867 it will drop precipitously after that. As this article notes, many believe that market levels are too high and so the recent drop is a market correction. As also noted, fear of an economic slowdown is growing. Finally, some are confident that the economy is strong, the drop is an anomalie, and new market highs are around the corner. Based on these analyses you should either buy or sell or hold. What are you waiting for?
1
None of this news should be unexpected. The global economy, hit by a slowdown in just about every region, has started to come to gripes with the fact that the world economy is sick. Honestly, the Fed should have never raised interest rates in December. U.S. inflation hasn't budged upward at all and commodity prices have been deflating for months. Until China can let go of its controlling grasp of every aspect of its markets and currency the volatility will continue for a while. The U.S. economy outlook is the best in the world but with all the multinational companies out there the pain will be felt here for the foreseeable future. No one is an island any longer is this global economy.
I think the U.S. consumer has also gotten smarter after being burned during the 2008 meltdown. We are saving more and spending a bit less. Overall that is good news even if it hurts company profits a little. They will adjust accordingly and the markets will eventually stabilize. If you are an active investor you will just need to make sure you have a balanced portfolio and are VERY well diversified. If you are smart you will be able to ride out this storm like we have many times before.
I think the U.S. consumer has also gotten smarter after being burned during the 2008 meltdown. We are saving more and spending a bit less. Overall that is good news even if it hurts company profits a little. They will adjust accordingly and the markets will eventually stabilize. If you are an active investor you will just need to make sure you have a balanced portfolio and are VERY well diversified. If you are smart you will be able to ride out this storm like we have many times before.
5
It seems a little misleading to tie the drop in stock prices to the American economy. The market indexes are heavily influenced by big oil, and companies that heavily invested in China. Couple that with Wall Street's typical hyper reaction to any news, and the market takes a hit. The American economy is doing just fine, and the money previously spent on fuel for our vehicles and petroleum products will flow to other uses. China can not continue tog row at 10 percent forever and we will need to make accommodations for that fact.
2
I travel the world.. London, Singapore, Dubai, Mumbai etc... The biggest issue is that the U.S. is loosing the best and brightest educated immigrants. There is too much focus on illegal uneducated immigrants when all other countries are attracting highly educated people. Goto London or Singapore or Dubai - teeming with ivy League engineers and start ups ( all educated in the US).. The irony
It takes 10 + years for An ivy league engineer from india or china to get a green card , while a Salsa dancer can get a green card in few months. Where is the ivy league engineer going to start his company? They have all moved to London or Singapore .. London now has more tech jobs than New York....
1. Launch a start up visa like London or Singapore have
2. get the best and brightest to stay - these are highly educated with links to the asia.. the fast growing regions in the world
The US economy will boom if it focuses on the best and the brightest. They are studying in the US anyway and then start companies in Asia. Keep them in NY or SF
It takes 10 + years for An ivy league engineer from india or china to get a green card , while a Salsa dancer can get a green card in few months. Where is the ivy league engineer going to start his company? They have all moved to London or Singapore .. London now has more tech jobs than New York....
1. Launch a start up visa like London or Singapore have
2. get the best and brightest to stay - these are highly educated with links to the asia.. the fast growing regions in the world
The US economy will boom if it focuses on the best and the brightest. They are studying in the US anyway and then start companies in Asia. Keep them in NY or SF
10
Consumers lost the ability to incur debt easily, or to utilize equity in homes, which has sharply curtailed consumer spending. With wages flat since well before the Great Recession, the loss of purchasing power has been dramatic.
Europe has been dealing with contraction for some time, which means that the two primary markets for Chinese exports are not healthy. China has not developed a large middle-class which consumes as much or more than it makes, like the U.S. had, so demand there is still very soft.
The debt crisis is far from over, we just have been feeling the effects of stimulus for the last few years. Without investment in infrastructure, the value of assets will decline. What good is a factory which cannot ship or receive? True wealth does not evaporate overnight, because it is physically manifested. What constitutes wealth these days is just numbers in computers, numbers which can be manipulated easily, without investment or adding of value.
Not long ago, everybody was commenting about how overpriced everything was. People have been forced to lower their prices in the face of slack demand, revealing the true worth of many of those assets. Just because I say my house is worth a certain amount does not mean that I will get it if I liquidate. We have been the victims of con games for so long that we are losing faith in everything. No matter what happens, the future will not be better than the past, the way things are going.
Europe has been dealing with contraction for some time, which means that the two primary markets for Chinese exports are not healthy. China has not developed a large middle-class which consumes as much or more than it makes, like the U.S. had, so demand there is still very soft.
The debt crisis is far from over, we just have been feeling the effects of stimulus for the last few years. Without investment in infrastructure, the value of assets will decline. What good is a factory which cannot ship or receive? True wealth does not evaporate overnight, because it is physically manifested. What constitutes wealth these days is just numbers in computers, numbers which can be manipulated easily, without investment or adding of value.
Not long ago, everybody was commenting about how overpriced everything was. People have been forced to lower their prices in the face of slack demand, revealing the true worth of many of those assets. Just because I say my house is worth a certain amount does not mean that I will get it if I liquidate. We have been the victims of con games for so long that we are losing faith in everything. No matter what happens, the future will not be better than the past, the way things are going.
16
"We have just not seen the consumer consuming."
How then to explain Detroit's most successful year for car sales ever? Maybe low income people who shop at Walmart are not consuming, but economy is not driven by the consumer purchases of the working poor.
How then to explain Detroit's most successful year for car sales ever? Maybe low income people who shop at Walmart are not consuming, but economy is not driven by the consumer purchases of the working poor.
1
"How then to explain Detroit's most successful year for car sales ever? "
Umm, can you say "subprime"?
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/subprime-canary-on-the-dealer-lots...
Umm, can you say "subprime"?
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/subprime-canary-on-the-dealer-lots...
Right now, Wal-Mart is closing hundreds of its stores because of decreasing demand. Prices are lowering because we are entering a deflationary period which will be hard to dig ourselves out of.
4
I does seem funny that people can froth at the mouth about the world economy being entirely the responsibility of president Obama, blah blah blah, apparently forgetting that, number one; The US economy is in much better shape than the rest of the world, and two; the world economy was utterly shattered the last time a Republican was in the White House. The hypocrisy of some of the comments below is absolutely staggering.
16
@ David- couldn't agree more. Those who hate Obama the most seem inclined to imbue him with Godlike powers.
People who make political commentary on financial boards are about as useful as preachers trying to convince the farmer that his sins are responsible for the locust or lack of rain. Just because it's hard to find an atheist in a foxhole doesn't necessarily mean they don't exist. But, it also doesn't mean that all the atheists who had the perspicacity to avoid the trenches would maintain their belief while under fire in a went muddy hole. In other words, people tend to react irrationally when markets begin to act irrationally.
The market is responding to China's impact on the market, which has bought aggressively forward on commodity markets now reeling from that devaluative effect. The lack of cohesion and integration between China's domestic regional economies and its national output resides in the poor capital infrastructure. For example they didn't really begin to promote any bond instruments to support rail and construction until the last few years and they sought to govern liquidity and tax through margin investment rather that direct taxes on the market. Bank of China has aggressively exported capital going into this dive, and that portends a rigorous correction in the luxuries market.
At the end of the day, China created around 5-7 trillion dollars in debt that cannot be recaptured and lost about that amount in foreign reserves in commodities. 20%.
People who make political commentary on financial boards are about as useful as preachers trying to convince the farmer that his sins are responsible for the locust or lack of rain. Just because it's hard to find an atheist in a foxhole doesn't necessarily mean they don't exist. But, it also doesn't mean that all the atheists who had the perspicacity to avoid the trenches would maintain their belief while under fire in a went muddy hole. In other words, people tend to react irrationally when markets begin to act irrationally.
The market is responding to China's impact on the market, which has bought aggressively forward on commodity markets now reeling from that devaluative effect. The lack of cohesion and integration between China's domestic regional economies and its national output resides in the poor capital infrastructure. For example they didn't really begin to promote any bond instruments to support rail and construction until the last few years and they sought to govern liquidity and tax through margin investment rather that direct taxes on the market. Bank of China has aggressively exported capital going into this dive, and that portends a rigorous correction in the luxuries market.
At the end of the day, China created around 5-7 trillion dollars in debt that cannot be recaptured and lost about that amount in foreign reserves in commodities. 20%.
4
Keep talking ourselves into a situation and it will happen. As a wartime poster said many years ago 'careless talk costs lives'. It means livelihoods this time round. 67% of British people believe another financial crisis like 2008 is coming this year. Global banks are even bigger, consumer debt is massive, across the US and EU, all it takes is for one of the economic spinning tops, like Spain or Italy to wobble and every economy on the planet will know about it in days. This unsustainable endless demand for growth at all costs needs to be altered and our mindset changed to find a way to live within or economic and resource realities. Until we do these crises will keep coming back.
5
“The market is acting as if China is already in recession and is dragging the U.S. into recession and there is nothing we can do about it,” Mr. Orlando said, “and there is nothing you can do to refute it until there are more data points.”
A local TV station had a man from the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday who energetically told us all that the sky is falling. "The markets are falling and this time the central banks cannot help! Last time, China's growth helped us out, but now China can't help either! Economic reports today are terrible.! Today Walmart announced that it was closing 264 stores - Even Walmart closing stores!!!!!!' Chicken little without the feathers.
Actually, Walmart is closing stores in a "change in strategy." Walmart also plans to open 300 new stores this year - hardly the Armageddon this "expert" was yammering about. Still, tone matters - a lot - especially when coming from an "expert" (definition: EX - an unknown quantity; "spurt" a drip you can't turn off). Enough of this dooms-day talk and they will become self-fulfilling prophets - or at least scare too many folks into poor investment decisions with real consequences for their futures.
A local TV station had a man from the Chicago Board of Trade yesterday who energetically told us all that the sky is falling. "The markets are falling and this time the central banks cannot help! Last time, China's growth helped us out, but now China can't help either! Economic reports today are terrible.! Today Walmart announced that it was closing 264 stores - Even Walmart closing stores!!!!!!' Chicken little without the feathers.
Actually, Walmart is closing stores in a "change in strategy." Walmart also plans to open 300 new stores this year - hardly the Armageddon this "expert" was yammering about. Still, tone matters - a lot - especially when coming from an "expert" (definition: EX - an unknown quantity; "spurt" a drip you can't turn off). Enough of this dooms-day talk and they will become self-fulfilling prophets - or at least scare too many folks into poor investment decisions with real consequences for their futures.
6
The same yammering so-called 'economists' and 'market pundits' who were telling you that ''there's nothing to worry about the U.S. only exports about 7% to China,'' are the same ones who are acting like hysterics now. The reason is quite simple, they're idiots and frauds who have no better understanding of the market now than they did then. They are simply over-compensating now and predicting the next Great Depression, they are joined by the usual crowd of professional idiots who specialize in predicting the Great Depression whenever asked, based on the theory that a 'broken clock tells time correctly twice every 24 hours.'
The current market downturn was caused by China's failure to plan correctly in using its financial stimulus in coming out of the 2008 crash. Specifically they invested trillions in illiquid capital development- real estate - while seeking to support that with ambitious but, under funded rail and highway development that lacked any form of underlying bond supported by a toll and use agency. They have been scrambling to correct that, but with societies that lack the history and the structures to provide the needed support. Between graft, theft, and politics, they're in a real crisis. Meanwhile they sought to raise funds via interest on margin accounts rather than tax compliance. That caused their market bubble and burst. The commodities pile up and currency devals are the latest consequence of this failed policy.
The current market downturn was caused by China's failure to plan correctly in using its financial stimulus in coming out of the 2008 crash. Specifically they invested trillions in illiquid capital development- real estate - while seeking to support that with ambitious but, under funded rail and highway development that lacked any form of underlying bond supported by a toll and use agency. They have been scrambling to correct that, but with societies that lack the history and the structures to provide the needed support. Between graft, theft, and politics, they're in a real crisis. Meanwhile they sought to raise funds via interest on margin accounts rather than tax compliance. That caused their market bubble and burst. The commodities pile up and currency devals are the latest consequence of this failed policy.
3
I suspect many Americans are using their savings from lower energy prices to pay off debt. They don't want to make big investments without a big wage increase, and energy savings just aren't enough.
24
@STL - also financial corporations as well as the medical and pharmaceutical industries are very efficient at price gouging and bleeding any life out of the consumer unless they are hit in the head with a sledge hammer by the federal government, which isn't going to happen with this congress.
Most financial planners tell their customers to reduce their debt first. It is the contradiction in the Consumer economy that sound individual advice is what hurts growth the most that has bedeviled economic growth in aging societies like Japan, and slowed recovery in the U.S. as well.
What the U.S. really could use is intelligent, well funded bond structured capital expansion of its transport and communications for greater productivity and less carbon impact (more public transport, and more efficient road travel).
China is going to present a fresh brace of problems if it encounters internal instability or attempts to stimulate its economy through aggression (war).
Most financial planners tell their customers to reduce their debt first. It is the contradiction in the Consumer economy that sound individual advice is what hurts growth the most that has bedeviled economic growth in aging societies like Japan, and slowed recovery in the U.S. as well.
What the U.S. really could use is intelligent, well funded bond structured capital expansion of its transport and communications for greater productivity and less carbon impact (more public transport, and more efficient road travel).
China is going to present a fresh brace of problems if it encounters internal instability or attempts to stimulate its economy through aggression (war).
4
Absolutely. People don't trust in prosperity anymore; we've been squeezed in every way, and medical and insurance corporations and the rest are waiting like wolves for us to stumble. We need to be careful. And we do want to pay down debt, especially credit card debt, having seen what a fool's game it is. After we bailed out the lenders in 2008, they thanked us by tripling the interest on all our debt over night. And we saw clearly enough that they were completely untrustworthy and vilely indifferent to the effects of their malfeasances. And they had the legal power to shaft us royally. That doesn't leave people desirous of further entanglements with them, even though our own incomes aren't increasing; it's better to tighten our belts than to have to do with Chase or Bank of America or such anymore.
3
Good article. Not so great for investors, but consumer should do okay as long as gas stays low. Investors always want equities to go higher, but there's only so much cutting that will push it - now we need real demand which will only come from consumer spending... money flows up from the middle class - it doesn't "trickle down".
15
@chris87654 There is a difference between commodities, equities, and consumers. Oil is a commodity. But it's price is governed and set by markets that include equity investments and companies. Also, sovereign currencies used to purchase future contracts for this commodity help set its current and future price. The American consumer, who largely has little investment at play will benefit. The pensioner who holds mutual funds and 401Ks will likely suffer. The oil people will eat each other up as they merge into the next nightmare of dystopic end of days game.
4
When you're thinking about gambling, invest in the casino, not in individual gamblers.
2
Despite making gains after 7 years on public life-support, the stock market remains unpredictable and highly reactive. Perhaps in an economy now characterized by automation, outsourcing of manufacturing, reduced labor-participation, and other stresses that did not exist historically, a stock market casino is no longer a good basis for our country, and needs to be replaced by some more rational and robust system.
24
@RC - it is indicative of poor analysis to speak of ''the stock market'' instead of discussing world market and policy impacts and difficulties at times like this. It is similarly an illusion to talk in 'preachery' terms like 'stock market casino.' - There is a difference between long term investment and shorts, or buying on margin. Without commodities markets as sophisticated as we have there would be far worse disruptions in world-wide supply and demand chain, as indeed there were going back a century to ''the good old days.''
I really have to laugh and wonder when I read posts like yours as to whether people have any historical education or curiosity at all. If they did they might realize that one of the reasons people went cold in the winter wasn't simply lack of money, it was lack of market control over the price of coal and labor and the means to transport it combined with profiteering. The same is true of food prices. Today's consumers are actually much less victims of starvation and arbitrary panics. But, pray tell, what ''more rational and robust system'' do you propose from out in ''Cargill'' land of the grain monopoly families?
I really have to laugh and wonder when I read posts like yours as to whether people have any historical education or curiosity at all. If they did they might realize that one of the reasons people went cold in the winter wasn't simply lack of money, it was lack of market control over the price of coal and labor and the means to transport it combined with profiteering. The same is true of food prices. Today's consumers are actually much less victims of starvation and arbitrary panics. But, pray tell, what ''more rational and robust system'' do you propose from out in ''Cargill'' land of the grain monopoly families?
2
Ya think?
As in 2007, when there was plenty of warning about an over-inflated housing market ready to crash, there has been plenty of warning about today's over-inflated illiquidity market, also ready to crash. One just has to look beyond the closed world of Wall Street.
For example, just read: http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/
It seems that many armchair analysts are more accurate than the "experts" with big titles who cannot see reality behind the glare of the casino. And the reality is that the crash that's coming (and has already started) is going to be much, much bigger than 2008 -- or anything else in history.
As in 2007, when there was plenty of warning about an over-inflated housing market ready to crash, there has been plenty of warning about today's over-inflated illiquidity market, also ready to crash. One just has to look beyond the closed world of Wall Street.
For example, just read: http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/
It seems that many armchair analysts are more accurate than the "experts" with big titles who cannot see reality behind the glare of the casino. And the reality is that the crash that's coming (and has already started) is going to be much, much bigger than 2008 -- or anything else in history.
8
@ Delving Eye- Sorry, no. Saying things are bad is not the same as accurately calling the markets and identifying where they are wrong, where the flaws are, and what needs to be done about it. I completely predicted how this China market would devolve and identified exactly how the rest of the world would react to the strategy the adopted to try to deny the problem existed. No, it's not bigger than ''anything else in history.' You're hysteria is long on hyperbole and short on facts and citations.
This market is part of the credit imbalance that was created by the Central Chinese government and BOC investing in capital markets without an existing bond infrastructure in response to the 2008 Western Market meltdown. Simply put, the BOC and China invested aggressively in their domestic infrastructure, but, without a means of capitalizing that investment to wind it back, i.e. a disciplined rated bond system to hold each state and province accountable. Consequently, they created far more inefficiency and corruption in their markets than needed to be the case, and, more critically, had no disciplined way of recapturing that investment by carrying off bond interest to the investing parties. They turned instead to trying to capture investment from the chinese tax-adverse consumer- to which end they created their third stock market floated on margin. Bad call. They are a third of the world economy. The European markets in aggregate and the U.S. still dominate.
This market is part of the credit imbalance that was created by the Central Chinese government and BOC investing in capital markets without an existing bond infrastructure in response to the 2008 Western Market meltdown. Simply put, the BOC and China invested aggressively in their domestic infrastructure, but, without a means of capitalizing that investment to wind it back, i.e. a disciplined rated bond system to hold each state and province accountable. Consequently, they created far more inefficiency and corruption in their markets than needed to be the case, and, more critically, had no disciplined way of recapturing that investment by carrying off bond interest to the investing parties. They turned instead to trying to capture investment from the chinese tax-adverse consumer- to which end they created their third stock market floated on margin. Bad call. They are a third of the world economy. The European markets in aggregate and the U.S. still dominate.
6
Too many equity experts say "buy, buy, buy" - the markets 'want' to go up, but we don't really have anything supporting growth. Demand from consumers supports an economy, not cost cutting by corporations.
2
Well, well, well! It appears that Obama's plan of high taxes, Big Government, a centrally planned economy, and a steady stream of lies (all imposed on an unwanting populace by executive order because the king knows best!) sure is working wonders, isn't it?
6
I don't think Obama has much effect on what's happening in China. Economy is doing okay here (did Obama raise taxes? I must've missed that), though not for whiners who are waiting in their mom's basement for someone to give them a job so they can get their own place... I think some Americans got spoiled during the housing boom.
18
Guessing you didn't read the article, unless you think the evil Obama somehow controls the world economy. Apparently you also didn't notice the subtext, which is that our country, which you so obviously hope will founder before next November so you can say 'see!' like my five year old, is in comparatively good shape when measured against the rest of the world. Just deal with it.
4
Right, Larry. And Obama made it rain yesterday as well.
Use your head, friend. For years President O took heat for placing limits on drilling and discouraging new pipeline capacity. "Drill baby, drill"! Now, lo and behold, we are awash in oil, and the U.S. Is a net exporter of the stuff, or certainly could be. Tell me again how the Obama administration caused or contributed to the plummeting price of oil by discouraging the untrammeled growth of exploration and production capacity?
I read this 'it's Obama's fault' idiocy day in and day out in social media, and 99% of the time a moment's reflection will demonstrate the reasoning behind it is completely topsy turvy -- assuming reason has anything to do with it. But I suppose in a world desperately looking for scapegoats, the first black President is a convenient one.
Use your head, friend. For years President O took heat for placing limits on drilling and discouraging new pipeline capacity. "Drill baby, drill"! Now, lo and behold, we are awash in oil, and the U.S. Is a net exporter of the stuff, or certainly could be. Tell me again how the Obama administration caused or contributed to the plummeting price of oil by discouraging the untrammeled growth of exploration and production capacity?
I read this 'it's Obama's fault' idiocy day in and day out in social media, and 99% of the time a moment's reflection will demonstrate the reasoning behind it is completely topsy turvy -- assuming reason has anything to do with it. But I suppose in a world desperately looking for scapegoats, the first black President is a convenient one.
10
It's not just the economy or the price of oil that is the problem. The stock market looks to the U.S. government and especially to the President to solve or at least engage with major problems around the world whenever they occur, and at this moment in time there is virtually no confidence in the ability of our government to do so.
2
the fundamentalist religion of market forces relying on the private profits of a minority as its deity is running out of dogma, faith, mythology and other structurally failing immaterialist aspects of its foundation..fossil fuels need to stay in the ground, renewable alternative energies need to power our future, and war to enrich the fossil fuel warlords and warheads need to stop...that means public salvation has to come before private profit and if we don't do it, democratically, nature will step in and things will be even uglier than at present.
6
I think that alalysts and economists aren't acvount for those gas savings (lower fuel and energy bills) now being spent on health insurance instead. There are 17 million additional people being insured through policies bought on the exchanges and the millions bought through the individual private market cost on average at least $100 a month, usually far more. That's were a lot of the lost consumer spending is going. Also, people have gotten smarter about saving for retirement. And the newly re-employed, who might have suffered through losing all their savings while being unemployed for months to years, know the value of saving for an emergency. People have gotten more responsible about their money and aren't rushing to buy the newest shiny tech gadget on the market.
6
Obamacare has exploded healthcare costs, despite promising the exact opposite. Obama cancelled insurance for millions, forcing them into more expensive Obamacare plans with less coverage. And where the $2500 liar Obama promised us?
4
Healthcare costs HAVE gone up, but I don't blame Obama. I blame businesses who are scamming the system - like drug companies charging outrageous prices for drugs because everyone has insurance. Or large drug companies buying small ones and cutting back/stopping generic production. And I wouldn't blame Dems so much for this, because we all know they're not smart enough to run a business. Figure it's like defense contractors who sell bolts for $40 that you can get for $1 at Home Depot. It's a problem but the government's not supposed to interfere with private enterprise.
9
No, Obamacare has significantly slowed the growth in the cost of healthcare.
http://www.factcheck.org/2014/02/aca-impact-on-per-capita-cost-of-health...
http://www.factcheck.org/2014/02/aca-impact-on-per-capita-cost-of-health...
5
Obama isn't satisfied with destroying the US economy, he wants to destroy the world economy too
3
I can't think you've been paying attention at all to the world economy (or, frankly, even ours, which has been miraculously pulled from the pit of hell that Bush Jr. left it in). The policies republicans wanted would've plunged us instead into the abyss seen in Europe when austerity pushed debtor nations over a cliff, punishing common people for debts they never even knew of and couldn't have stopped if they had. We've seen the results of that austerity now, how impossible strangling nations' economy makes it that they can ever satisfy the banker class--the same men who cooked up the mortgage frauds and bad bonds and sold them in the first place. What a mess. You don't like Obama, and when there' a chance, you accuse him. Try learning a little about situations themselves, and knee-jerk hatred a little less.
7
Well let's look at the big picture. Observers of the Friday night Republican debate might conclude that political discourse in the United States is in free fall. Talk about crisis. Forget the rounding errors of the China's economy on the world scene. When major potential leaders of the free world show themselves to be vile antagonists unfettered by facts that is cause for real concern. Wake up fellow readers of the NYT, we do have a crisis on our hands.
32
Yeah. It's called the Obama economy.
1
So let me get this straight...
The global economy is driven by energy, for manufacture, transportation, and domestic use,
energy costs are at their lowest level in years and could decline further, thus reducing manufacturing, transportation, and consumer costs for gas and heating,
yet this is bad news for the stock market?
What am I missing?
The global economy is driven by energy, for manufacture, transportation, and domestic use,
energy costs are at their lowest level in years and could decline further, thus reducing manufacturing, transportation, and consumer costs for gas and heating,
yet this is bad news for the stock market?
What am I missing?
21
You are missing that there are many USA jobs in the energy sector. Progressive layoffs and decreased spending in the energy sector will hurt the USA economy.
Why is everyoone measuring the economy by the price of oil? Oil is over, coal is over. Of course they're still being traded and still being worshipped as the only possible energy choices. but the world is moving past them, yet we're tethered to the price of oil being the marker of a healthy economy. Poor imagination, poor predictive skills, bad for the environment and worse for geopolitical situation. We need other benchmarks, and we need them soon. The stock market feels like a dinosaur. Maybe we should all be buying shares in the Pony Express.
3
What I think you're missing is that many of those trading in the markets today have a the time horizon of a mayfly coupled with the patience of a weasel. In other words they have great difficulty thinking more than 12 minutes into the future.
You are right- the price of energy is a component of everything humans do and produce. As such, lower energy prices should make everything we buy less expensive, and so we should be expected to buy more of everything. But this takes time to percolate its way through the economy. If you only concentrate on what's immediately in front of you, all you see is the value of your energy stocks declining. So you panic.
You are right- the price of energy is a component of everything humans do and produce. As such, lower energy prices should make everything we buy less expensive, and so we should be expected to buy more of everything. But this takes time to percolate its way through the economy. If you only concentrate on what's immediately in front of you, all you see is the value of your energy stocks declining. So you panic.
8
I wanted to include a reference to programmed trading. The volitility of market swings is something that does not take place on its own. There may be proximate causes such as the oil glut, or China slowdown, but it is very difficult to pin these market swings on any of these. So, what is causing these volitile swings and downturns? Somewhere in the great brokerage machine, are a set of kickers that accentuate what could have been moderate to modest changes. A stringent examination of what market mechanisms are involved in these machinations is long overdue.
50
I suspect that the magic algorithms behind programmed trading that accounts for the vast majority of trading activity on stock exchanges today are hard-coded to say that lower gas prices mean less demand, no if's, and's, or butt's. Yet human traders are easily able to see that falling oil prices are driven almost exclusive by excessively gargantuan over-supply, not slackening demand. Nevertheless, every drop in oil prices sets off a selling frenzy among the investment bots.
Lack of oil consumption, unemployment suddenly up in January, Walmart closing stores, stock market falling: so much for the great fake economy Obama spoke about.
12
While it is true that Obama did not do as much as he could have to stimulate the economy, things would have been much worse with Republicans in charge. The last time that we had a financial crisis before 2008 was in 1929 and Hoover (Republican) did nothing to stop the collapse of the economy. Even worse than Hoover's response to a financial crisis is today's Republicans idea of cutting government during a financial crisis. Never in the history of human kind has an economy recovered from a financial crisis by cutting government spending. I shudder to think about what will happen if today's Republicans are in charge of government during the next financial crisis.
14
Cutting Big Government spending has never once failed to spur economic growth. Never once has an economy grown by Big Government spending. These are scientifically proven facts. With the GOP in charge there won't be an economic crisis, the 2008 crisis started when Pelosi and Reid seized power
2
Larry, you're completely wrong. I don't know if we could've recovered better than the 2007/2008 crisis, but the 2001-2008 period which caused so much death, injury, and financial loss was largely presided over by Republicans. Since then, McCain and Romney would've been way worse than Obama, who was the lesser of two evils, but that's the only choice on the table. Given the poisoned chalice, Obama has done well and if you feel you could've done better, you should've convinced voters to vote you in and implemented your plan, but I've not seen it.
There are many ways to keep the economy humming, and spending is one of them. ph1 is right and Larry is wrong.
There are many ways to keep the economy humming, and spending is one of them. ph1 is right and Larry is wrong.
8
The root cause of the financial turmoil in 2008 and now in 2016 is the trillions in derivatives debt that the "too big to fail and jail" casino banks are loaded to the gills with, but which you hear very little about in the mainstream financial media.
There's estimated to be around 2 QUADRILLION of toxic derivatives debt in the trans-Atlantic region! These big banks that speculate in them are HOPELESSLY bankrupt. Since the 2008 crisis, they along with their media have been pretending that there's been a recovery, when all they've done is forestall the day of reckoning. All the stimulus or quantitative easing in the world-euphemisms for massive amounts of electronic money printing, won't save the criminal banks, it will just make things much worse in the long run, all these toxic derivatives need to be canceled via a Glass-Steagall type of bankruptcy reorganization of the financial system, otherwise nobody's savings are safe!
They've already got the Bail-in policy on the books in Europe and in America under section II of the Dodd-Frank Bill, that basically says the big banks can come in and loot their depositor's savings to keep the their casino banks solvent.
There's estimated to be around 2 QUADRILLION of toxic derivatives debt in the trans-Atlantic region! These big banks that speculate in them are HOPELESSLY bankrupt. Since the 2008 crisis, they along with their media have been pretending that there's been a recovery, when all they've done is forestall the day of reckoning. All the stimulus or quantitative easing in the world-euphemisms for massive amounts of electronic money printing, won't save the criminal banks, it will just make things much worse in the long run, all these toxic derivatives need to be canceled via a Glass-Steagall type of bankruptcy reorganization of the financial system, otherwise nobody's savings are safe!
They've already got the Bail-in policy on the books in Europe and in America under section II of the Dodd-Frank Bill, that basically says the big banks can come in and loot their depositor's savings to keep the their casino banks solvent.
12
Once again, the drop in the price of oil is being blamed for the big drops in the stock market. The price of oil was manipulated by hedge fund managers. I have no pity for the losses they are incurring. Instead, I’ll enjoy the hundreds I am saving on heating oil this winter and the $1.99/gallon gas I can now buy in NY.
11
The stock market was jet-fueled by the Fed's 7-year ZIRP policy and $4 trillion in the various QE programs over the past several years. The market was also propelled by record amounts of margin buying and increased leverage. In addition, companies issued hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds, the proceeds being used to buy back stock for the most part. All the "ingredients" were there for a massive sell-off after seven years of out-size gains. The only question was what would prompt the selloff? Maybe the China situation, maybe the junk-bond market, maybe oil at $30 a barrel, maybe the hundreds of billions borrowed by energy companies when oil was $135 a barrel 18 months ago...maybe a combination of all these issues. The bottom line is selloffs always occur, it's like a game of musical chairs.
And don't think for a minute the Fed will stand by and let this get out of hand. The Fed has had Wall Streets back since the Oct 1987 crash. It has consistently looked the other way since 1987 and let Wall St. off the hook for close to 29 years, shirking its regulatory responsibilities culminating in the 2008 financial meltdown fiasco. Yet since then, the Fed has allowed record amounts of margin buying and now the margin calls are coming in once more. Every seven years or so....1987, 1994, 2001, 2008 and now 2016...just like clockwork.
And don't think for a minute the Fed will stand by and let this get out of hand. The Fed has had Wall Streets back since the Oct 1987 crash. It has consistently looked the other way since 1987 and let Wall St. off the hook for close to 29 years, shirking its regulatory responsibilities culminating in the 2008 financial meltdown fiasco. Yet since then, the Fed has allowed record amounts of margin buying and now the margin calls are coming in once more. Every seven years or so....1987, 1994, 2001, 2008 and now 2016...just like clockwork.
41
The price of oil in 2008 trashed the world's economies.
The low price of oil will allow a consistent recovery that takes time to percolate through the world.
Be patient.
It could be worse. Oil prices could be high, again crushing economies.
Now we should be storing oil.
The low price of oil will allow a consistent recovery that takes time to percolate through the world.
Be patient.
It could be worse. Oil prices could be high, again crushing economies.
Now we should be storing oil.
4
Some enterprising startups should jump at the opportunity to buy oil low now and sell high later.
2
The USA can store oil by not extracting it and exporting it , we can be energy independent for 50 years right now
9
Unlike the less than bright Republican Congress that sold Strategic reserve oil that was bought high, at a low price.
I wouldn't trust them to deliver newspapers for a living.
I wouldn't trust them to deliver newspapers for a living.
4
No one says it out loud but the Saudi decision to maintain high production levels of oil despite lessened demand across world markets has been a major part of this decline. Depressed oil prices led to less drilling in America and other nations. While initially the priced decline in oil was a boon to consumers the consented decline began to affect other industries as the number of rigs in production and the lessened need for industrial maintenance of existing and new equipment began to also steadily decline. Thus manufacturing of steel for oil and gas production also fell.
Saudi Arabia believe it's policies are good for it in the long run. That may well be true as bankruptcies in the oil patch begin. But, at some point without a price increase, the negative industrial decline will continue. Plus the moment prices rise enough other producers will crank up their production. At that point unless the Saudis cut back on production and take less market share, the prices will fall again. There will be a vicious cycle of production cut backs and price reduction until someone says uncle. It will be the Saudis who will run out of reserves first. They will be the victims of their own policy. They are a one product country. Sooner or later they'll have to face the reality of less market share to stabilize prices. But the damage has been done. Iranian production will soon be coming on line as well. And American producers will be seeking new technology to produce ever cheaper products.
Saudi Arabia believe it's policies are good for it in the long run. That may well be true as bankruptcies in the oil patch begin. But, at some point without a price increase, the negative industrial decline will continue. Plus the moment prices rise enough other producers will crank up their production. At that point unless the Saudis cut back on production and take less market share, the prices will fall again. There will be a vicious cycle of production cut backs and price reduction until someone says uncle. It will be the Saudis who will run out of reserves first. They will be the victims of their own policy. They are a one product country. Sooner or later they'll have to face the reality of less market share to stabilize prices. But the damage has been done. Iranian production will soon be coming on line as well. And American producers will be seeking new technology to produce ever cheaper products.
18
"No one says it out loud but the Saudi decision to maintain high production levels of oil ...."
It's not a Saudi decision. It's an American decision. To punish Russia and Iran for being ... Russia and Iran.
It's not a Saudi decision. It's an American decision. To punish Russia and Iran for being ... Russia and Iran.
4
"No one says it out loud?" Do you live in a cave? You don't see the bigger picture for WHY they are keeping production up and prices low. It's called politics and conflicts with their adversaries. The Saudis can EASILY afford to ride this out, or they wouldn't be dong this.
4
And who can ever forget all those screaming voices led by Sarah Palin..."Drill,Baby,Drill."
7
The more panicked people sell their stocks because of their panic and not thinking, the lower the market goes. Sellers are causing the drop, not China.
31
Thanks for your writing. It left me with not much more to add. Remember we are in the winter consumer hibernation which is well known to have occurred, especially in a recent year of very bad weather. We are also coming off the holiday season with consumers, like myself, throttling back spending after spending much around the holidays.
I'll add, take a look at bank stocks. Are people exiting the stock markets and putting some money in safe FDIC insured saving accounts? You cite BOA, but how about the others? You did indicate activity in safer Government Bonds.
Don't fret. Corporations were swimming in money and past complaints were that they were sitting on their cash, so they are far from failing due to a declining market.
Thanks for the writing. I enjoyed reading.
I'll add, take a look at bank stocks. Are people exiting the stock markets and putting some money in safe FDIC insured saving accounts? You cite BOA, but how about the others? You did indicate activity in safer Government Bonds.
Don't fret. Corporations were swimming in money and past complaints were that they were sitting on their cash, so they are far from failing due to a declining market.
Thanks for the writing. I enjoyed reading.
3
Corporations are in an earnings recession. Corporations have no money. The People have no money. Big Government is raking in record tax revenues, and government greed demands more, more, more, more!
1
You certainly are having some time commenting tonight there Larry.
8
A question (related to content of this article) which I would like a separate article written on one day in regards to money:
From information I could find, just about every country in the world has billions, tens or hundreds of billions, or trillions in debt. There are only a couple handfuls of lucky smaller poor countries that only have millions or tens of millions in debt.
So, if the MAJORITY OF COUNTRIES in the world all have tons of debt, who has money? Anyone? Is all our money really worthless? Is the world's economy just a game of monopoly paper money? Are we all getting played?
Getting back to this article, how can the U.S, economy not be in trouble? The economic crisis of 2008 was like a huge gaping wound that was fixed with a tiny band-aid. I've talked to quite a few CEO's, CFO's, and other people high up in financial institutions, and when you ask any of them similar questions to the one's above... nobody has an answer! Most people think that there are other people that know the answers, but when the heads of big companies don't know... who does? In closing, please find us the wizard of OZ, and inform the world how all of this financial mumbo jumbo works.
From information I could find, just about every country in the world has billions, tens or hundreds of billions, or trillions in debt. There are only a couple handfuls of lucky smaller poor countries that only have millions or tens of millions in debt.
So, if the MAJORITY OF COUNTRIES in the world all have tons of debt, who has money? Anyone? Is all our money really worthless? Is the world's economy just a game of monopoly paper money? Are we all getting played?
Getting back to this article, how can the U.S, economy not be in trouble? The economic crisis of 2008 was like a huge gaping wound that was fixed with a tiny band-aid. I've talked to quite a few CEO's, CFO's, and other people high up in financial institutions, and when you ask any of them similar questions to the one's above... nobody has an answer! Most people think that there are other people that know the answers, but when the heads of big companies don't know... who does? In closing, please find us the wizard of OZ, and inform the world how all of this financial mumbo jumbo works.
2
If the world's economy just a game of monopoly paper money the "real" property aka estate is the best investment
2
Cowboy growth vs populist capitalism....we cannot live on the crack hi of 12% yields & 5% annual growth. It is unsustainable & destructive.
Felix Rohatyn was a sane capitalist; he espoused more rational & modest growth, not the 'good bubbles' that Forbes promotes.
Short term riches for a few with vast economic casualties& suffering for the many is destabilizing to a robust democracy.
Less is more.
Felix Rohatyn was a sane capitalist; he espoused more rational & modest growth, not the 'good bubbles' that Forbes promotes.
Short term riches for a few with vast economic casualties& suffering for the many is destabilizing to a robust democracy.
Less is more.
21
The $4.4 trillion the Fed "created" as QE has gone straight into financial assets (ie, stocks and bonds) creating a massive bubble (I'm afraid Trump is right on this one). There is little if any connection between equity prices and the real economy or company profits (the discounted value of the future stream of corporate profits to be exact). The bubble will have to burst at some point - all at once, slowly, whatever, but it will burst. Investors (who often move in packs) just aren't sure when the bubble will burst so you get these surges in one direction or another. Whether the bubble bursts depends on whether the Fed will let it. My money says it's way too early in the game for the Fed to throw in the towel so if you're brave enough and have the money, buy some cheap stocks and hold them!
20
most of the money went into mortgage backed securities. Very few banks let the money from quantitative eases out for loan to margin accounts.
Robert Shiller, using his CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio) predicted that there would be a large decline in stock valuations. He made these statements in the spring and summer of 2015. He was cautious enough to say he couldn't pinpoint an exact time when this would happen. He pointed out that historically the kind of market valuations in 2015 shown by his CAPE index meant there would eventually be a severe decline in the markets. It would behoove the New York Times and all those Wall Street pundits to pay more attention to Shiller. He is cautious by nature and doesn't state warnings like this without serious evidence and a lot of study.
27
Fossil fuels are finally getting the market correction they deserve and the creatures of the Deep on Da Street like the Vampire Squid and The Whale bet the farm on drill, baby, drill, so want us to believe it is "the markets". The hedge hawgs love nothing more than volatility and the GOP and their Wall Street minders want to create the impression the economy is on the brink so one of their clowns can ascend to the throne. I think this is mostly for show, except the very predictable slide in the price of fossil fuels. An insider's tip: coal will continue to decline and never recover. Gig is up on fossil fuels.
1
Obama has been lying through his teeth about the economy. It is far worse than liar Obama says, and everybody knows it. It'll take President Trump at least 2 terms to undo Obama's messes
1
I find it strange that no one looks at past sharemarket peaks and sees the pattern. The markets peak and once they have dropped more than 10% they just keep going down. The reason is that the economy needs the stimulus from increasing asset values. Once that disappears and worse, they decrease, it causes a drag on the economy.
6
All the sell off has to go somewhere....nothing is lost what so ever....when the big investors sell off it takes out the little guys that over extended....then when things are down again they buy and make more money ...bottom line about money you can not take it with you forever it does not sleep/
1
We've completely gamed the unemployment and job-creation numbers.
Why not simply make up a stock index, based on the 10-20 stocks that did best, the week before?
Perhaps called the WMW (what, me worry?) Index.
Or have Janet Yellen buy up lots of stock - and give $25,000 of it, free, to each person on Medicaid.
We've blamed China for a couple of years - and Dubya, for several years.
For clarity, the blame aimed Dubya's way is completely justified - but it's just so...2008...to keep doing that.
As far as the genius quoted as saying:
"...The market is acting as if ...
Uuuh - the market isn't an act.
It's for real.
Why not simply make up a stock index, based on the 10-20 stocks that did best, the week before?
Perhaps called the WMW (what, me worry?) Index.
Or have Janet Yellen buy up lots of stock - and give $25,000 of it, free, to each person on Medicaid.
We've blamed China for a couple of years - and Dubya, for several years.
For clarity, the blame aimed Dubya's way is completely justified - but it's just so...2008...to keep doing that.
As far as the genius quoted as saying:
"...The market is acting as if ...
Uuuh - the market isn't an act.
It's for real.
5
Yellen pulled off the quantitative training wheels, raised rates, and the stock market almost immediately entered a bear market. The Feds made this move in the face of a oil and commodity crash and China exporting deflation. The health of the banks and attracting U.S. Treasury buyers are obviously more important to the Fed than the stock market.
This is nerve-wracking because the Fed needs an increasing stock market as a fundamental basis for the wealth effect long required to kick the economy into gear. Now, it looks like the Fed is choosing between worst case scenarios and deciding who they serve first, the banks, the state, or equity holders.
This is nerve-wracking because the Fed needs an increasing stock market as a fundamental basis for the wealth effect long required to kick the economy into gear. Now, it looks like the Fed is choosing between worst case scenarios and deciding who they serve first, the banks, the state, or equity holders.
5
Is it fear or is it greed?
Just think what would happen if Social Security was tied to the whims and "fears" of "Investors".
The so called "fundamentals of the economy" has not been sound since the repeal of Glass-Steagall, the onset of "globalization" and NAFTA (more locally).
Let's start with the oil price. After the great crash of 2008, fro whatever reason, speculators drove up the price to well over $100/barrel, even though there was not high demand for it. This started a fracking boom in the US. Which led to an oil glut. Meanwhile, the world economy, was/is still flat or falling; less China. On Wall Street, t same speculators drove up the stock market, to record levels. Again, no reason for it, other giving people some weird sense that the US economy si doing great.
Last summer, the first signs of things not rosy appeared. First, oil went up to fats and is now coming down. next, the Chinese economy, artificially propped up, is now contracting. Which was followed by world stock markets going into "correction". Then things bounced back. Now, the warning signs are here again, and this time a much deeper correction.
For the average American, 2% raises (if that), a declining work force, lower paying jobs, off shoring, out sourcing, and under reported inflation, has taken its toll. Most people, in the US, and elsewhere, ask "What recovery?".
Now, the Wall Street naysayers are about to bring us the recession of 2016, and with it, a nasty adjustment in one's 401k.
Just think what would happen if Social Security was tied to the whims and "fears" of "Investors".
The so called "fundamentals of the economy" has not been sound since the repeal of Glass-Steagall, the onset of "globalization" and NAFTA (more locally).
Let's start with the oil price. After the great crash of 2008, fro whatever reason, speculators drove up the price to well over $100/barrel, even though there was not high demand for it. This started a fracking boom in the US. Which led to an oil glut. Meanwhile, the world economy, was/is still flat or falling; less China. On Wall Street, t same speculators drove up the stock market, to record levels. Again, no reason for it, other giving people some weird sense that the US economy si doing great.
Last summer, the first signs of things not rosy appeared. First, oil went up to fats and is now coming down. next, the Chinese economy, artificially propped up, is now contracting. Which was followed by world stock markets going into "correction". Then things bounced back. Now, the warning signs are here again, and this time a much deeper correction.
For the average American, 2% raises (if that), a declining work force, lower paying jobs, off shoring, out sourcing, and under reported inflation, has taken its toll. Most people, in the US, and elsewhere, ask "What recovery?".
Now, the Wall Street naysayers are about to bring us the recession of 2016, and with it, a nasty adjustment in one's 401k.
43
You can thank liar tyrant Obama and his centrally planned economy and high taxes for the Depression of 2016
Science has conclusively proven that the stock market is a better investment than Social Security. Social,Security is a Ponzi scheme that is guaranteed to go bankrupt
Science has conclusively proven that the stock market is a better investment than Social Security. Social,Security is a Ponzi scheme that is guaranteed to go bankrupt
The Chinese economy is not contracting, which would mean its GDP growth rate is negative. The rate of economic growth is slowing, from 8% to 6%, still a booming growth rate by any measure.
1
Any fair individual must blame this fall 99% on Bush & the ever-destructive GOP of Trump.
Obama has had only 7 years to fix the economy, almost no time at all (even though WW 2 was won in 6.
Any day now, Obama will begin to bring to justice the bankers who perpetrated the 2008 meltdown.
Obama has had only 7 years to fix the economy, almost no time at all (even though WW 2 was won in 6.
Any day now, Obama will begin to bring to justice the bankers who perpetrated the 2008 meltdown.
3
All I know is, the oligarchs have their money somewhere else and we're all getting shafted.
69
You've got the cause and effect wrong. The Wall Street casino may cause an economic slowdown but it's not being created by one. Item: even companies reporting excellent results (see Wells Fargo) have tanked. Item: both employment and most corporate earnings continue to be high. Of course, the earth could be hit by a comet tomorrow, but at present the American economy is strong and has limited exposure to China and other troubled areas. The stock meltdown is sheer speculation in the Wall Street Casino. Bernie Sanders is right:these guys are crooks and don't deserve the obscene salaries they make.
96
"We have just not seen the consumer consuming."
And such are the wages of widening inequality, when the consumers have no money.
If the federal gov't wants to do something about it, it will reverse the foolish decision to raise interest rates, it will restart its quantitative easing program, it will provide a social security COLA and it will start deficit spending on infrastructure.
Time's a-wastin' folks!
And such are the wages of widening inequality, when the consumers have no money.
If the federal gov't wants to do something about it, it will reverse the foolish decision to raise interest rates, it will restart its quantitative easing program, it will provide a social security COLA and it will start deficit spending on infrastructure.
Time's a-wastin' folks!
66
Sam:
Didn't you hear Obama on Tuesday evening tell us that the economy was good? I don't understand how you can say that "Times a-waistin' folks!". Don't you believe our President?
And, the federal government didn't raise interest rates, it was the Federal Reserve (which is supposed to be independent of the government).
Didn't you hear Obama on Tuesday evening tell us that the economy was good? I don't understand how you can say that "Times a-waistin' folks!". Don't you believe our President?
And, the federal government didn't raise interest rates, it was the Federal Reserve (which is supposed to be independent of the government).
3
The People have no money because Big Government took it all. Big Government is raking in record tax revenues, and the economy gets worse and worse. We had Obama's trillion dollar porkulus which failed totally. The only hope is to shrink Big Government and reduce Big Government taxes and spending
2
Should it be mentioned how the Republicans are 'talking down' the economy? How's that ol' 'trickle down' working for ya?
30
Should it be mentioned that Obama is lying, again, about how great the economy is?
Trickle down worked great! It produced the greatest economic expansion in history. Obama wishes he had 0.000000001% of Reagan's success...and brains, good looks, communication skills, popularity, etc
Trickle down worked great! It produced the greatest economic expansion in history. Obama wishes he had 0.000000001% of Reagan's success...and brains, good looks, communication skills, popularity, etc
1
"The central economic message from President Obama in his State of the Union (SOU) speech last night was that the U.S. economy was on a strong footing and well prepared to prosper in a dynamic and rapidly changing global environment."
(Robert Kahn "Macro and Markets" Council on Foreign Relations)
The market disagrees.
How dare it ?
(Robert Kahn "Macro and Markets" Council on Foreign Relations)
The market disagrees.
How dare it ?
14
The stock market is not the economy.
4
The market is never wrong
2
Never wrong about the prices people will pay today. As a prognosticator of future economic activity, the market is less wise, reportedly calling 9 of the last 5 recessions.
The stock markets do not,sever individuals well. They serve hedge funds and large companies.