The only thing the U.S. makes is movies.
1
If the US were on a gold standard, the American economy would be the greatest in the world. Instead, politicians print money and spend it like the deranged drunken sailors they are. Stop THAT, and then Americans would be able to keep more of their money, and enjoy the benefits of spending it themselves.
2
Would our industrialists please stop funding the experiment in China?...
3
India is rising again . USA is staying back for another round of racial conflicts. war shall be good between USA and China in the near future. Supporting Daesh and ISIS is a boring idea. Arabs themselves have given up on Islam and its rituals.
Is the world at Pareto optimality? There is still room for growth and remember everyone is a Keynesian when there is persistent unemployment.
Some of the comments in this piece illustrate why journalism is more the problem than the solution. The European Union is not teetering on fascism because some right wing parties have gained votes, but if that message is repeated again and again, it can only serve to frighten people unnecessarily.
Journalists who want to sell a piece for publication look for a hot button issue and repeat it again and again. The pressure on publications like the Times to sell papers only encourages writers to become more inflammatory.
Journalists who want to sell a piece for publication look for a hot button issue and repeat it again and again. The pressure on publications like the Times to sell papers only encourages writers to become more inflammatory.
4
Gasoline in California has risen in price over the last month by 42 cents a gallon. Yet we keep reading how the price per barrel of oil keeps dropping.
Who is benefiting the most? Yes, we all are, but some more than others.
Who is benefiting the most? Yes, we all are, but some more than others.
1
Yes, 'tis. The more UN-like we are vis-à-vis the rest of the World, the more comfortable I am, TARP, and various other disasters, notwithstanding. This is still "The Country of Record" (Apologies to the NYT), and will remain so as long as we allow it to.
Long term, you can't argue with 1.3 billions; but, for 2016, we're holding the 6-NT hand.
Long term, you can't argue with 1.3 billions; but, for 2016, we're holding the 6-NT hand.
The NYT just recently published an article on the dire plight of women over 50. It was quite accurate and also confirmed that men over 50 also had great difficulty keeping or finding jobs. Now we get this rosy article on our economy when just below the surface, their is bubbling discontent among the middle class and poor.
While things may be worse around the world, the US is no beacon.
All that is growing is the economic windfalls of the very few while the rest of us stagnate or sink deeper into poverty. Bernie Sanders is the only candidate addressing these issues accurately. Don't believe these numbers or their rosy interpretation. The flower is wilting.
While things may be worse around the world, the US is no beacon.
All that is growing is the economic windfalls of the very few while the rest of us stagnate or sink deeper into poverty. Bernie Sanders is the only candidate addressing these issues accurately. Don't believe these numbers or their rosy interpretation. The flower is wilting.
6
What about Chaos Theory?
"In the European Union, political extremists are on the rise", I would also consider this to be true on the G.O.P. Candidate, Donald Trump since his statements are very radical and unprecedented within American politics.
While there is allot of Chaos outside our borders, allot of it is having direct impact on how we live our lives in the States. ISIS has caused a radicalization of many individuals leading to extreme anxiety across the globe from Paris to Africa to Bernardino.
"In the European Union, political extremists are on the rise", I would also consider this to be true on the G.O.P. Candidate, Donald Trump since his statements are very radical and unprecedented within American politics.
While there is allot of Chaos outside our borders, allot of it is having direct impact on how we live our lives in the States. ISIS has caused a radicalization of many individuals leading to extreme anxiety across the globe from Paris to Africa to Bernardino.
1
Anyone who knows anything about economics knows that the glass is always half empty. Additionally, anyone who knows anything about economics knows that the glass if always half full. IN OTHER WORDS, a strong dollar benefits industries that rely on imported goods such as retail, foreign oil, and overseas travel and hurt industries that rely on exports or overseas investments at home such as Boeing and big ticket real estate purchases (The Waldorf-Astoria). For every indicator showing a negative effect there is almost always an exact opposite. Such is the way of the world and global economics, ladies and gentlemen, and for every season there is a turn - just ask the Japanese. Oh, remember their spending spree during their bubble in the late 80s and early 90s? China - take note.
1
We are not an island but a beacon of hope for the entire world. It is time for our leaders - real and imagined - to end the rhetoric of 'empire lost' and embrace with pride our place on the globe.
2
One might almost think that our economic model, based on free market capitalism, is actually the best for its citizens.
We need to stop the hand wringing about our "broken" economic system. It is working just fine, thanks.
We need to stop the hand wringing about our "broken" economic system. It is working just fine, thanks.
1
If the US is an island, can we vote some people off of it?
1
We're just fine when we don't mess with the rest of the world. Stay home, stand tall
1
The world is suffering from a chronic lack of rationality.
1
Swell! We can feel so confident about ourselves. Everyone and the politicians boils it down to the stock market, money and the price of oil. Where is our will to go out and make or manufacture anything? Who is out there to produce food and fiber? America is going to be hung out to dry in the near future without a guarantee that it can feed and cloth itself and make its own goods. I'm telling you it's not going to be pretty 50 years from now if we stay this course.
4
The U.S market is not steady. It just appears to be steady. The common phenomena in both China and U.S is that U.S lost middle class while China never had it. Now both countries are in the same basket. Collapse of markets around the globe inevitable in 2016.
2
US can remain stable if it puts its long term interest above its short term, and practices patience. US is currently entangled in every war in middle east. Surely it has to be increasingly hard for Americans put the blame on Arabs and Israelis when a very drone addicted US is either bombing Muslims, or arming Muslim militia to overthrow their government, or arming Muslim government to bomb other countries, or arming and funding an ultra right wing Jewish government? Believe me, there are plenty of people who want a good life and who want to live. Believe me, they are the majority. It is very easy to silence the majority by arming their governments or rebels who want war.
3
Thanks for confirming that, even with all the challenges we face and desire to improve in so many ways, we are still far and away the greatest country in the world, and frankly, in history.
RE: If the American economy were to slump and President Obama were to ask the Republican Congress for fiscal stimulus, it would give new meaning to “Dead on Arrival.”
Not if the ask was for a tax cut. If just as stimulating for people to spend the money direct rather than sending it to Washington to be misspent.
Not if the ask was for a tax cut. If just as stimulating for people to spend the money direct rather than sending it to Washington to be misspent.
Hate to bring up a sore subject, but it will take a century or more to assess the damage to the world's economy from the Bush Rampage. France and Germany, knowing that war creates refugees, BEGGED our Warpresident NOT to invade Iraq in 2003. He did and they are now inundated with refugees. ISIS was a product of Bush's inane "Freedom Agenda." Two wars and two recessions. The "recovery" has never really occurred. China loaned us the money to invade Iraq and now its phony economy and "ghost cities" are collapsing. With Republicans doing everything they can to sink the ship, Obama has valiantly fought to keep us afloat. I fear that the Republican Wrecking Crew may succeed in taking us to the bottom.
1
We are not an island of stability.We are brought down by corruption every decade.Sanders will right us by changing the rules of the game.
2
We're all gonna die! Or at least one day.
We should mostly worry about the arrival of the robots. And can we in a robot world distribute food and services in a way that doesn't conjure Orwell.
We should mostly worry about the arrival of the robots. And can we in a robot world distribute food and services in a way that doesn't conjure Orwell.
Only with numbers can you call the U.S. an 'Island of Stability'. Look behind the numbers and realize the rosy job picture is not a Norman Rockwell painting. There is no mom at home, dad working happily in a career job, everyone home for the holidays, large families and turkeys.
Holidays now are for those extra shifts at Wallmart for mom, dad pulling down two jobs, college education no longer leading to a career for the kids. And yet, there you are still doing your patriotic duty, buying that plasma TV, those super smart phones that dumb and numb you down to the point where you actually believe that buying stuff is the the stuff of a life well lived.
When you trot out the consumer confidence index as proof of how well the country is doing, you lose all credibility for making the case for your 'Island of Stability'. There is no stability in anything but a sustainable economy. Everything else is not only prolonging the inevitable, it's not taking the initiative that is required of a leading nation.
Personally, I think the American can do spirit is more than capable and ready get to work on that future. Why are you celebrating the millions of McJobs people now are forced to take in place of the careers they should be engaged in? Why cheer when Black Friday is a rousing success. Yay! We shopped more than ever before! Our country is so great. Why? What, besides guns is it producing? Where is the innovator? What kind of future is there in work, eat, shop, die, repeat?
Holidays now are for those extra shifts at Wallmart for mom, dad pulling down two jobs, college education no longer leading to a career for the kids. And yet, there you are still doing your patriotic duty, buying that plasma TV, those super smart phones that dumb and numb you down to the point where you actually believe that buying stuff is the the stuff of a life well lived.
When you trot out the consumer confidence index as proof of how well the country is doing, you lose all credibility for making the case for your 'Island of Stability'. There is no stability in anything but a sustainable economy. Everything else is not only prolonging the inevitable, it's not taking the initiative that is required of a leading nation.
Personally, I think the American can do spirit is more than capable and ready get to work on that future. Why are you celebrating the millions of McJobs people now are forced to take in place of the careers they should be engaged in? Why cheer when Black Friday is a rousing success. Yay! We shopped more than ever before! Our country is so great. Why? What, besides guns is it producing? Where is the innovator? What kind of future is there in work, eat, shop, die, repeat?
2
Hhmm.. not sure how right your analysis on " the island of stability" is Two anecdotes
1. In 2011, London had far fewer tech jobs than new York. London now has far more tech jobs and start ups than New York. The London labor participation rate is far higher than new york
2. The Indian economy is growing at 7.5%and start ups in India are raising billions . People have multiple job offers
I travel to London, Singapore , Dubai, Mumbai often.. Way more people taking about start companies in those cities. Never mind the surge of ivy league grads flocking there
1. In 2011, London had far fewer tech jobs than new York. London now has far more tech jobs and start ups than New York. The London labor participation rate is far higher than new york
2. The Indian economy is growing at 7.5%and start ups in India are raising billions . People have multiple job offers
I travel to London, Singapore , Dubai, Mumbai often.. Way more people taking about start companies in those cities. Never mind the surge of ivy league grads flocking there
1
The US can remain an island of stability as long as we put the skids on our out-of-control Wall Street cheaters. and return to rules that protect the average retail investor. We should look for a stable, reasonably valued dollar that will benefit us, as well as other countries, while adding just a dash of inflation and wage growth.
4
I think Irwin is confused about the strength of the dollar. If it continues to go up this will benefit the other countries which are in trouble. The movement is actually in the direction of stability, that is growth of other countries, but not to the benefit of the US trade balance.
4
It's easy to forget that the GDP "growth" rate is precisely that... the amount of GDP we produce in a year in EXCESS of the amount we created the previous period.
So it's not that we've only created 2% or 3% this year, it's that we've produced 102% or 103% as much as we produced the prior year.
Chill.
So it's not that we've only created 2% or 3% this year, it's that we've produced 102% or 103% as much as we produced the prior year.
Chill.
2
The one aspect of liberal cheerleading for socialism is the insistence by the Left that Americans are working at good jobs. Over ninety million people are living through a Great Depression but that can never be admitted lest the fantasy of Hillary's electability collapses in a pile of unicorn feathers.
@L’OsservatoreA
Fair Verona
A great depression in which the largest number of autos in US history has just been sold and new claims for unemployment benefits are at their lowest for nearly 50 years. Buddy can you spare a dime?
Fair Verona
A great depression in which the largest number of autos in US history has just been sold and new claims for unemployment benefits are at their lowest for nearly 50 years. Buddy can you spare a dime?
6
Another Jeremiad. Yes a stronger dollar makes exporting harder and imports cheaper but that's a nice problem to have. Falling energy prices are an enormous boon to the US since we consume around 25% of the world's oil. In economics as in most things you don't gain one value without sacrificing another.
10
Were probably fully so called globalized. Now the co-ordination among the dubious G20, will have to unfold. Central Bankers in the EU and North America have emptied their tool boxes, printing debt. Obvious a new era of muted GDP , accompanied by currency manipulation is here, so everyone can try and increase exports. Low interest rates are driving auto sales and real estate in the US. Wage growth is very muted as corporations have the upper hand.
Neil says 2.8 percent growth looks pretty terrific, but as I recall, a desirable growth rate is closer to the 4-5 percent range. The US isn't that strong either, nor its job market that great. Further, a lot of regular people are struggling to earn a decent wage now and will suffer when already weak growth starts to slow.
2
@ Kim in Boston
The average US growth rate since WW 2 has been 2.7%. If the US economy started growing at annual rate of 5% it wouldn't be very long before it overheated and the Fed would be forced to push up rates to pop the bubble.
The average US growth rate since WW 2 has been 2.7%. If the US economy started growing at annual rate of 5% it wouldn't be very long before it overheated and the Fed would be forced to push up rates to pop the bubble.
8
This article proves that good economic news is an oxymoron. When we have stable growth we are told the economy is not performing well. When China's economic growth is 7% (while ours is less the 3%) it is cause for a drastic drop in stock market indexes. What would constitute good economic performance?
Good economic performance would require a drastic reductions in government regulation, Reagan-era marginal tax rates, and a span of a decade with the promise of no new government redistribution schemes.
Even with every single thing put back to where we were in 1982, however, Obamacare all by itself is still going to be enough to eventually collapse our economy and ruin the dollar.
Opinions differ whether that was always the original intention of the 2400-page disaster or not, but it has NOT even provided medical care for ONE-HALF of a percent of the U.S. population who were without insurance before - back when 80% of the country was pleased with their coverage.
Even with every single thing put back to where we were in 1982, however, Obamacare all by itself is still going to be enough to eventually collapse our economy and ruin the dollar.
Opinions differ whether that was always the original intention of the 2400-page disaster or not, but it has NOT even provided medical care for ONE-HALF of a percent of the U.S. population who were without insurance before - back when 80% of the country was pleased with their coverage.
Not a mention of how our government-sponsored overproduction of food commodities has undermined these countries' local economies and at the same time, driven population growth.
We're told we need GMO's to support expanding population, but in countries where population is stable or falling, we're told we need more people to drive growth,
And no mention, either, of how our military, intelligence and trade policies have destabilized poor countries, supported exploitive elites and stymied emergence of a viable political class.
Come on, Nobel- and Pullitzer-prize-winning analysts. Figure it out.
We're told we need GMO's to support expanding population, but in countries where population is stable or falling, we're told we need more people to drive growth,
And no mention, either, of how our military, intelligence and trade policies have destabilized poor countries, supported exploitive elites and stymied emergence of a viable political class.
Come on, Nobel- and Pullitzer-prize-winning analysts. Figure it out.
4
A minor point, but maybe indicative of a major one:
This story starts off by repeating one of the most deceptive truisms of our time. Not that the unemployment rate is low. But that it bears some meaningful relationship to the well-being of most Americans.
This metric is little more than a relic of a time when the US economy was structured around assembly lines, 9-to-5 jobs, unions, and formal layoffs. Perhaps it made sense to measure unemployment by the number of workers who have had formal jobs, and lost them, and filed for benefits over the previous 18 months.
Since then, the entire country, and the workforce along with it, has restructured itself along lines of a huge daily hiring bazaar. Temping, the use of parttimers, outsourced jobs, and of course automation have all played a role. Vast swathes of the workforce have been relegated to permanent unemployment, and don't even show up in the statistics.
This story starts off by repeating one of the most deceptive truisms of our time. Not that the unemployment rate is low. But that it bears some meaningful relationship to the well-being of most Americans.
This metric is little more than a relic of a time when the US economy was structured around assembly lines, 9-to-5 jobs, unions, and formal layoffs. Perhaps it made sense to measure unemployment by the number of workers who have had formal jobs, and lost them, and filed for benefits over the previous 18 months.
Since then, the entire country, and the workforce along with it, has restructured itself along lines of a huge daily hiring bazaar. Temping, the use of parttimers, outsourced jobs, and of course automation have all played a role. Vast swathes of the workforce have been relegated to permanent unemployment, and don't even show up in the statistics.
15
Since World War II, the US has been an island of wealth in a world which suffered from too much population growth.
In 1968, Paul Ehrlich published his famous book, "the Population Bomb," which argued that the world faced catastrophe unless it brought exponential population growth under control.
Ehrlich's argument was quite robust, and the simple mathematics upon which his argument was based was unassailable. Continued population growth at say 2% does indeed cause so much overcrowding that in a couple hundred years living standards must go down due to finiteness of resources.
The Club of Rome published a more detailed treatment, "the Limits to Growth," a few years later, which regarded population as one of many variables, others being availability of various resources. The new aspect of this model was that it predicted "overshoot and collapse."
But there was one fortunate event which put off the day of reckoning. Improvements in technology (Norman Borlaug's green revolution) prevented widespread starvation.
Yet America was for many decades an island of high living standards as sub-Saharan Africa and much of Asia fell into bone-crunching poverty.
And China was able to achieve temporary economic growth through its one-child policy and movement of peasants from farms to factories.
Now Chinese growth is faltering. And if America's wealthy still do well, those in the middle see wages stagnating and living standards falling.
The population bomb has arrived in the US.
In 1968, Paul Ehrlich published his famous book, "the Population Bomb," which argued that the world faced catastrophe unless it brought exponential population growth under control.
Ehrlich's argument was quite robust, and the simple mathematics upon which his argument was based was unassailable. Continued population growth at say 2% does indeed cause so much overcrowding that in a couple hundred years living standards must go down due to finiteness of resources.
The Club of Rome published a more detailed treatment, "the Limits to Growth," a few years later, which regarded population as one of many variables, others being availability of various resources. The new aspect of this model was that it predicted "overshoot and collapse."
But there was one fortunate event which put off the day of reckoning. Improvements in technology (Norman Borlaug's green revolution) prevented widespread starvation.
Yet America was for many decades an island of high living standards as sub-Saharan Africa and much of Asia fell into bone-crunching poverty.
And China was able to achieve temporary economic growth through its one-child policy and movement of peasants from farms to factories.
Now Chinese growth is faltering. And if America's wealthy still do well, those in the middle see wages stagnating and living standards falling.
The population bomb has arrived in the US.
2
Birthrates in the US are higher than in much of the world. The issue is less a population bomb than a technology bomb. Software based enterprises generate billions in revenue with far fewer employees and the products that they sell require no networks of repair shops and little service support. In contrast, the auto industry created jobs across the value chain from mining through the advertising and sales support industries. Borlund's green revolution may be going bust and climate change and other environment related challenges demand massive structural changes in economies and foreclose the same development path pursued by the US and earlier Britain. Now there is a "postdoc" crisis as PhDs cannot land permanent work in their field of choice. Self-driving cars and trucks are on a trajectory to eliminate millions of well-paying truck driver and taxi jobs. AI appears to be poised to eliminate call centers, paralegals, and large numbers of jobs in medicine. China is seeking to keep pace with advancing technologies and implementing robots as fast as the US or faster. What will the millions do that are being squeezed from the farms as agriculture automates in China and across the developing world? Perhaps we need to look to new worlds. Global GDP could easily sustain industrial development of the Moon and colonization of Mars if there were no wars. This would generate jobs in research and engineering and they all need plumbers and service support. Look to the Moon!
3
Does the US really matter that much for the rest of the world anymore ?
The refugee crisis is rocking europe, the US could do so much, but even 10000 refugees seem to much for this big country. Refugees will be a leverage to change the middle east, but only if we have the stamina to take the bull on its horns. In this ugly mess the US is sidelined.
Climate change, the US is stalling and not inspiring.
World economy, free trade is always good, also good for politics, but what does the US to ensure free trade ? Just being an island of stability is not enough for the rest of the world. In europe the far right is rising, some government are messy and would need external supervision (balkans), we would need someone who talks straight, and if necessarily with some emphasis. But to many the US can not even talk sense.
The only thing i really do rely on the US is security. The world is in a turmoil and the US have proven more responsibility and perseverance than most other countries.
I just wish, the US would invest in other issues just half as much as it is investing in its defense budget.
The refugee crisis is rocking europe, the US could do so much, but even 10000 refugees seem to much for this big country. Refugees will be a leverage to change the middle east, but only if we have the stamina to take the bull on its horns. In this ugly mess the US is sidelined.
Climate change, the US is stalling and not inspiring.
World economy, free trade is always good, also good for politics, but what does the US to ensure free trade ? Just being an island of stability is not enough for the rest of the world. In europe the far right is rising, some government are messy and would need external supervision (balkans), we would need someone who talks straight, and if necessarily with some emphasis. But to many the US can not even talk sense.
The only thing i really do rely on the US is security. The world is in a turmoil and the US have proven more responsibility and perseverance than most other countries.
I just wish, the US would invest in other issues just half as much as it is investing in its defense budget.
2
This is the real story. The United States used monetary policy to lower the value of the dollar to save its economy. Its competitive devaluation boosted U.S. growth at the expense of growth in other countries. The U.S. exported its unemployment to the rest of the world.
But all good (and bad) manipulation must come to an end, and so now the shoe is on the other foot. The dollar will now have a period of relative strength , and the U.S. will have a period of economic underperformance. It will be hard pressed to have growth of 2%, much less 2.8%, in 2016.
And the worst part of the story is that the U.S. squandered its growth. Since the crisis all the benefits have gone to the 1%; the 99% are worse off. Unemployment is at 5%, but in a country where the unemployed are shamed, this statistic is nearly used. The labor participation rate - which is 3% down from its pre-crisis level and only 1% higher than its low - would give a better picture. College debt is huge, the medical system is a shambles, and many American families are one small financial misstep from poverty. These are the things that matter, not that America is "stable" (what, no revolution in sight yet?).
But all good (and bad) manipulation must come to an end, and so now the shoe is on the other foot. The dollar will now have a period of relative strength , and the U.S. will have a period of economic underperformance. It will be hard pressed to have growth of 2%, much less 2.8%, in 2016.
And the worst part of the story is that the U.S. squandered its growth. Since the crisis all the benefits have gone to the 1%; the 99% are worse off. Unemployment is at 5%, but in a country where the unemployed are shamed, this statistic is nearly used. The labor participation rate - which is 3% down from its pre-crisis level and only 1% higher than its low - would give a better picture. College debt is huge, the medical system is a shambles, and many American families are one small financial misstep from poverty. These are the things that matter, not that America is "stable" (what, no revolution in sight yet?).
9
Whatever. Meanwhile the American economy is the best performing and strongest economy in the world. Our US Treasury bonds are still the world standard. We are not perfect. But since you have a sharp eye try focusing on Europe, or your own country. You have plenty of work there before you can even start with us.
Very good question, but answers are not easy. US needs to stop being the expert on economic theories, plans and policies for the world. Leadership comes with responsibility, not just power and privilege. The US has behaved irrationally, impulsively and arrogantly on many matters, especially foreign policies - both military and finance. Fighting terrorism requires intelligence and the intellect. Fighting poverty and disparity, so we can unite as one human race and be part of this shared planet earth, requires right values. US has not demonstrated this well in the last forty years. It must first look to its values...and then decide how to be proactive and lead. Simply wanting to lead with arrogance and aggression is not going to work, especially in the world of business and finance. And it might help, like a good father, good brother or a good husband, to let those, who are just emerging, to lead or take the wheel for a change. Be kind, be supportive, be a cheerleader and be good for the larger humanity. That is what Buddha, all the Hindu deities, Jesus, Yewah or Allah or Atheist and Agnostic intellectuals would have wanted. Do not become an island, but do not become intrusive either. Support, help, aid and cheerlead. Let us become one prosperous happy world without poverty, beggary, corruption, selfishness, disparity or inequality.
4
Yes
Look at the labels on the stuff you buy, the national debt, how company make money by cutting costs and cheap interest rates, etc
Look at the labels on the stuff you buy, the national debt, how company make money by cutting costs and cheap interest rates, etc
2
Most probably as USA provides fabulous customer service; something lacking in people of Chinese origin. You also export weapons and war never goes out of fashion. (Though I did read today that Saudi Arabia wants closer ties with Putin; and Russia is also is a big exporter of weapons and guns.) Software and computer hardware is also a big income earner and as only a small percentage of the world is connected to the internet, there is always going to be room for growth in this area. There are lots of growth areas in the USA because you are a superpower and 1st world nation. Knowledge is power.
2
Customer service in the USA is a unique "species" unmatched by any other country. Consumer protection as well. Citizen protection too. As of weapons and war, well, as I have written in the past, any super power since the days of the Romans and Alexander the Great to the empires that disappeared in the last century have engaged in conquering wars. Another unique difference between the USA and the rest is that we tackle and debate on any issue, whether of local, national or international importance rather than crying and accusing. Sometimes we do not reach a consensus.
2
Always amazed that an individual can make statements such as this. Somehow it always leads back to a perception of American Exceptionalism....I don't decry this from any patriot, but I do wish many more patriotic individuals would sample the world -wide exceptionalism that many other successful nations enjoy before making such definitive comment, cheers!
What a gloomy piece of writing. No wonder they call it the dismal science. We've been here before. Yes, jobs and technologies went overseas. Often to our detriment but the paradox of spreading business ethic and competition to other nations refocuses attention away from poverty and warfare and enables human rights and suffrage to be kindled in places far and wide. True, the Mideast is inflames and apparently will continue to burn but if you had told me that China would be reinvented, Vietnam and much of Asia would be trading partners a few decades ago I would have had to laugh. Even oligarchic Russia is simply not a direct war threat and Europe and Latin America have moved solidly to the chaos of the democratic model. From where I stand 2016 looks like smooth sailing give or take a few inevitable squalls.
1
Republicans since President Reagan have been fond of saying in reference to the American economy, "A rising tide lifts all boats." Unfortunately, their glib little metaphor is not true. A rising tide lifts all boats except those which are anchored to the bottom. Those boats get swamped.
7
The fundamental flaw in the logic of this article, and the reason so many Nobel-level economists have been wrong in their predictions over the past decade...
...is that there is really no such thing as a "stand alone national economy" any more.
Most economic models are based on "nodes" of "national economies" with thin links of "trade" between those nodes. This article assumes that the US "node" has some extraordinary power vis-a-vis all the other national nodes on Earth.
The reality is that supra-node physical trade, and free-flowing finance among 100+ country nodes is now the dominant force of a unified global economy, and the national nodes have relatively little influence.
The Chinese stock markets are flipping around, but China still has the largest single physical production engine on Earth, and it has more than 150,000,000 expat citizens who either control or influence more than 50% of the physical commodities on Earth - and can ship them anywhere on short notice.
India has the largest and most diverse commercial democracy on Earth and can use barter, not government controlled currency to absorb economic shocks.
7 billion mobile phones, with 90% per capital penetration in the poorest regions of Earth, transmit more than $400 billion of "remittances" among guest workers of the world.
The "Tinkertoy" economic models of the 20th Century are now as obsolete as the land line telephone.
And traditional economists are been left behind by waves of human connectivity.
...is that there is really no such thing as a "stand alone national economy" any more.
Most economic models are based on "nodes" of "national economies" with thin links of "trade" between those nodes. This article assumes that the US "node" has some extraordinary power vis-a-vis all the other national nodes on Earth.
The reality is that supra-node physical trade, and free-flowing finance among 100+ country nodes is now the dominant force of a unified global economy, and the national nodes have relatively little influence.
The Chinese stock markets are flipping around, but China still has the largest single physical production engine on Earth, and it has more than 150,000,000 expat citizens who either control or influence more than 50% of the physical commodities on Earth - and can ship them anywhere on short notice.
India has the largest and most diverse commercial democracy on Earth and can use barter, not government controlled currency to absorb economic shocks.
7 billion mobile phones, with 90% per capital penetration in the poorest regions of Earth, transmit more than $400 billion of "remittances" among guest workers of the world.
The "Tinkertoy" economic models of the 20th Century are now as obsolete as the land line telephone.
And traditional economists are been left behind by waves of human connectivity.
2
And capitalism as it exists now - based on 17-20th century models of growth (and greed) at any costs and an insufficient acknowledgement of the so-called planetary externalities (and usually too little too late) - will be left behind by rising waves of oceans and environmental catastrophes that will beset the planet. It is the single most pressing issue for this connected younger generation.
3
The analysis is not fully accurate in the sense that part of the US economic growth is caused still by excessive government spending, see budget deficit. Europe on a balance has a lower deficit and also lower debt to GDP ratio, hence lower GDP. The recent credit cisis also is proof that big part of US pre-crisis growth was 'fake' in that it was partly driven by private sector overcrediting in the home mortgage market.
Netted for this overspending and debt growth US economic growth isn't that impressive nor sustainable in the long term.
China is now facing the same problem, big chunk of its growth has been driven by excessive spending funded by debt. Read the reports about al these big, fully empty cities they built, empty high ways, empty airports.
Economists should learn from business economists, that we need to see the 'real' numbers, what we call 'normalized' figures, netted for exception items, windfall one-off profits, debt funded spending etc. You only get these numbers by breaking down the composition of the consolidated numbers like these government issued statistis. Macro economics still isn't a mature science such as f.e. physics or medicine because of these kinds of flawed analytics. Get it right, get real please.
Netted for this overspending and debt growth US economic growth isn't that impressive nor sustainable in the long term.
China is now facing the same problem, big chunk of its growth has been driven by excessive spending funded by debt. Read the reports about al these big, fully empty cities they built, empty high ways, empty airports.
Economists should learn from business economists, that we need to see the 'real' numbers, what we call 'normalized' figures, netted for exception items, windfall one-off profits, debt funded spending etc. You only get these numbers by breaking down the composition of the consolidated numbers like these government issued statistis. Macro economics still isn't a mature science such as f.e. physics or medicine because of these kinds of flawed analytics. Get it right, get real please.
1
What comes out of the interaction between geopolitical trends and global market forces is just too complex to be accurately predicted. Geopolitics has just too many players and interest groups that are perennially tweaking course to fine-tune their response to more local issues. So infinite possibilities exist for things to go better or bad. The article mentions, Brazil and Nigeria but misses out Russia and India. Russia's decisions could have serious implications for the middle-east and India is a major economy that is doing pretty well. The angle for technological disruption was not considered, it is a serious aspect to ignore.
1
A lot will depend on just how wild the political rhetoric gets... and how many incidents it spawns.
We're a country divided once again; whether we will avoid all-out civil war or avoid it without too much damage will depend, largely, on which party takes the House and Senate this year - and, of course, on whether America elects a President with some judgment, experience, and heart.
We're a country divided once again; whether we will avoid all-out civil war or avoid it without too much damage will depend, largely, on which party takes the House and Senate this year - and, of course, on whether America elects a President with some judgment, experience, and heart.
2
We've always been a divided country.
I think it's pretty certain which party will take the House, but yes, the White House and the Senate are up for grabs.
I am skeptical to the direct connections that the author is making on the economics and specific world issues. Some of which I believe it is irrelevant to the subject in hand and some which the author had forgotten to include in this article. One example that consist of vague inferencing is the basic connection of the percentage of jobless below 5%, where the author made an explicit connection to the American DGP and fails to provide with numerical data of how much well it has contributed. By making such statements the author obscures relevant information. One example of important information that was not included is the smog dilemma in China which has been affected the carbon industry of China, which also served as a fuel to the Chinese economy. The report should have been stronger if the author would have included some examples of American industries that have contributed to its nation's booming economy. Additionally, the aspect that we are seeing is based on the balance of economics. Certainly with given time the increase in the American economic prospects will come to an end and plummeting should be expected.
1
But what happens once the U.S. loses its reserve currency status?
Ultimately, arithmetical principles must find equilibrium with our "something from nothing" violation of Cosmic Law. So presently, via manipulative machinations, our currency may give us a reprieve. But sooner, or later, "Faust must pay up" with that which is actual! Then will we finally seek truth to be free, or remain in the bliss of delusion?
Ultimately, arithmetical principles must find equilibrium with our "something from nothing" violation of Cosmic Law. So presently, via manipulative machinations, our currency may give us a reprieve. But sooner, or later, "Faust must pay up" with that which is actual! Then will we finally seek truth to be free, or remain in the bliss of delusion?
1
Probably nothing much, at least as a direct result. Controlling our own currency is more important, although the loss of reserve currency status will be a good indicator of diminished economic status in the world, and THAT obviously matters a lot. At the moment, the stronger dollar represents our near-term better economic prospects than most of the world, not "manipulative machinations." And it's a disadvantage, not a "reprieve," as it makes our goods and services less competitive. In economic terms it is surely possible to make "something from nothing." Otherwise, how could the entire world have become steadily richer over the past few centuries? Are we on the brink of a return to subsistence farming nearly everywhere? If not, the wealth we've created isn't all going up in smoke. We can't predict the future of course, especially over long periods of time. But as Keynes said,"In the long run, we'll all be dead."
1
So that means we can afford to throw in a dollar or two to the Mexican fence that Donald Trump is building. Yippee!
(P.S. consult your spellcheck.)
(P.S. consult your spellcheck.)
What a shame that Barack Obama has managed to keep the US economy running reasonable well. If only we been smart enough to have instead elected Republicans, this global mismatch problem would not exist!
21
#Repeal22
;-)
;-)
Frankly, a pretty condescending title to this column. It seems Mr. Irwin, has conveniently ignored the constant references and stories about growing inequality in America and how that it is affecting the economy. There has been a considerable AND growing number of American citizens that have economically been left behind in this so-called Island of Stability.
18
Yes the US can remain an Island of stability in the global economy if it become self sufficient and overcome trade imbalances and budget deficits and eliminate the national debt and not start any new wars that will require boots on the ground. Let the Syrian misadventure be the last of the most recent meddling pushed by the war mongers in congress.
10
I didn't understand the headline.
This great depression the world has been going through begun in the USA. It was the American banking system that collapsed, not the Chinese, the Russian or the Brazilian. And the USA used it's financial and military hegemony to export it's crisis to the EU, which transferred it's crisis to Greece (using it as a dump for rotten French and German bonds), which then spread to the BRICS after the fall of the commodity prices - thanks to the fall of Chinese demand, which was caused by the very failure of American "recovery", which is based on the substitution of private debt with public debt, ie on the sack of public wealth by the private banks and other financial institutions that begun the crisis.
I doubt the average American thinks that, with it's pathetic jobs generation rate (250,000 in a good month - worse than in 1929), stagnant wages, stagnant life expectancy and falsified unemployment rates (the U3 index), his or her life is better than be for 2008.
This great depression the world has been going through begun in the USA. It was the American banking system that collapsed, not the Chinese, the Russian or the Brazilian. And the USA used it's financial and military hegemony to export it's crisis to the EU, which transferred it's crisis to Greece (using it as a dump for rotten French and German bonds), which then spread to the BRICS after the fall of the commodity prices - thanks to the fall of Chinese demand, which was caused by the very failure of American "recovery", which is based on the substitution of private debt with public debt, ie on the sack of public wealth by the private banks and other financial institutions that begun the crisis.
I doubt the average American thinks that, with it's pathetic jobs generation rate (250,000 in a good month - worse than in 1929), stagnant wages, stagnant life expectancy and falsified unemployment rates (the U3 index), his or her life is better than be for 2008.
23
The headline isn't all you don't understand.
With tomorrow's Bureau of Labor Statistic's employment announcement, this will be the 70th consecutive month of private sector job growth in the US, for a total of more than 13 million jobs.
That is the longest running stretch of private sector job growth in our nation's history, objectively better than an economy losing 500,000 jobs a month in December 2008.
Further, after the Crash of 1929, industrial stocks lost 80 percent of their value.
10,000 banks failed, or 40 percent of all banks.
GDP fell 31 percent and unemployment skyrocketed to 25%.
Things are quite better here than in 1929 or 2008.
I truly hope Brazil's economy improves in time.
With tomorrow's Bureau of Labor Statistic's employment announcement, this will be the 70th consecutive month of private sector job growth in the US, for a total of more than 13 million jobs.
That is the longest running stretch of private sector job growth in our nation's history, objectively better than an economy losing 500,000 jobs a month in December 2008.
Further, after the Crash of 1929, industrial stocks lost 80 percent of their value.
10,000 banks failed, or 40 percent of all banks.
GDP fell 31 percent and unemployment skyrocketed to 25%.
Things are quite better here than in 1929 or 2008.
I truly hope Brazil's economy improves in time.
20
Will you be writing a novel based on this post? Science fiction, no doubt.
Not sure I understand David. Are you saying the US has job growth? What kind of jobs? Dream on David. The US is in economic trouble hanging on by our chiny chin chin. In 29 we were an isolated economy not as interwoven with today's world.
Commodity prices are plunging. The Chinese are trying to slash the
price of their exports by devaluation. The Europeans refuse to print
enough money to get their economies moving. Japan has negative
population growth. The dollar will skyrocket. Not sure that s a good thing.
price of their exports by devaluation. The Europeans refuse to print
enough money to get their economies moving. Japan has negative
population growth. The dollar will skyrocket. Not sure that s a good thing.
3
Globalization has matured, with no replacement model present. The US might be able to adjust over time, to an economy within itself. We can always export what others need of ours, and what they can afford. Examples already exist near our shores. Cubans and now Venezuelans import what essentials they can afford and typically US product . Heavens knows what slave labor market these exports were produced in but it counts in our GDP.
1
In the US, more than any other country, GDP growth is very concentrated at the top. Paul Krugman made comment recnetly about the Treasury's recently release data on taxes. Again, the "1%" are making it all. Read Thomas Piketty capital in the twenty-first century. The data says it all for 5, 1, 0.1 and 0.01%. The past 35 years of growth have gone to the same groups, but not the "99%".
14
Perhaps the United States of America could be an example of global stability by being a better good neighbor to allies and friends alike. This requires a political system that exhibits the best qualities of a democratic society. I am disappointed by the behavior of elected officials in Washington DC for failing to work together for a better America that would set the standards for global stability.
6
The world is suffering from a chronic lack of demand. This lack of demand is caused by inequality world wide. Does anybody doubt that if we simply gave the poor and working class people lots of US Dollars to spend, that we would instantly see a huge increase in commodity prices, wages, and economic activity generally?
Of course there is more to it than that. Some nations with strong currencies, stable demand, and reasonable lack of corruption (such as US and Germany) could afford to increase demand.
However, small nations are susceptible to destabilizing currency and investment flows - were they to choose to unilaterally stimulate the economy through government spending, or attempts to increase exports via *moderate* devaluation. Problem is, there is no world-wide "buyer of last resort", to provide small nations with the coveted dollars or Euros, in exchange for their labor. So, small nations must strangle their own economies, in fear of foreign speculators and strong currencies.
The only nations stable enough to create higher world-wide demand (and remove excess worldwide labor from the labor market) are those such as the U.S. and Germany, who simply refuse to do so. THESE are the nations which should be blamed for world wide stagnation.
Tsk-Tsk-ing at the rest of the world's economies, laughing - as the rest of the world begs for those oh-so-precious green pieces of American paper.
Of course there is more to it than that. Some nations with strong currencies, stable demand, and reasonable lack of corruption (such as US and Germany) could afford to increase demand.
However, small nations are susceptible to destabilizing currency and investment flows - were they to choose to unilaterally stimulate the economy through government spending, or attempts to increase exports via *moderate* devaluation. Problem is, there is no world-wide "buyer of last resort", to provide small nations with the coveted dollars or Euros, in exchange for their labor. So, small nations must strangle their own economies, in fear of foreign speculators and strong currencies.
The only nations stable enough to create higher world-wide demand (and remove excess worldwide labor from the labor market) are those such as the U.S. and Germany, who simply refuse to do so. THESE are the nations which should be blamed for world wide stagnation.
Tsk-Tsk-ing at the rest of the world's economies, laughing - as the rest of the world begs for those oh-so-precious green pieces of American paper.
8
you ah do know that billions of people have been raised out of poverty over the last 20 years, right? There is far more demand from 'poor' people now than there ever was in the past.
Apart from a few local wars in the Middle East and Africa this is a peaceful and prosperous era, income inequality needs to be dealt with, off shore havens closed and the stock markets heavily regulated and policed. Other than that stay calm and carry on
7
While "America" -- that is, various nationwide statistics -- show one thing, a huge percentage of Americans are struggling with no relief in sight.
With the trillions borrowed by our government entities, as well as by our business and individual Americans, we are not on solid ground and have not been for a long time.
When will our illusion of general stability and general prosperity crumble? I do not know. But unless we reduce our debt, tax ourselves enough to pay for the not small government we really want and get ourselves on genuinely solid ground, we are vulnerable and are not safe. Do not believe anyone who says otherwise.
With the trillions borrowed by our government entities, as well as by our business and individual Americans, we are not on solid ground and have not been for a long time.
When will our illusion of general stability and general prosperity crumble? I do not know. But unless we reduce our debt, tax ourselves enough to pay for the not small government we really want and get ourselves on genuinely solid ground, we are vulnerable and are not safe. Do not believe anyone who says otherwise.
11
How to make one's economy is stronger? The message " But from a stability perspective, When things more unstable ----- relative stability ". Central banks have easy money and hence the idea of trying for the fourth QE?
Did QE increases the debt burden by asymmetrical spread and increases the number of defaulters ?
Did QE increases the debt burden by asymmetrical spread and increases the number of defaulters ?
Until recently it was China that was the economic life jacket for the global economy, now that it's very high growth rate is declining others have to pick up the pace to avoid a global recession .
The USA and Europe have to be at the forefront and stimulate their economies to avoid such a recession.
In the USA we have to implement an infrastructure program to ensure we are not going to pass on a crumbling infrastructure to our children and to bring us up to a compeititive level.
This program can be financed by a financial transaction tax which does not impact consumer demand.
Accelerate energy independence focusing on renewable energy and enabling that technology in developing countries.
This will keep oil prices low and release more consumer demand which drives 65 percent of our economy.
Consumer demand can be further stimulated by raising the minimum wage .
As will Tax reform which will reduce taxes for the middle class ,small business and to pay for this eliminate tax shelters and corporate welfare for the top 5 percent and large business.
In turn all these actions will reduce income inequality and enable the middle class who have a greater propensity to spend drive the economy.
In addition we will have a great infrastructure which will benefit all
The USA and Europe have to be at the forefront and stimulate their economies to avoid such a recession.
In the USA we have to implement an infrastructure program to ensure we are not going to pass on a crumbling infrastructure to our children and to bring us up to a compeititive level.
This program can be financed by a financial transaction tax which does not impact consumer demand.
Accelerate energy independence focusing on renewable energy and enabling that technology in developing countries.
This will keep oil prices low and release more consumer demand which drives 65 percent of our economy.
Consumer demand can be further stimulated by raising the minimum wage .
As will Tax reform which will reduce taxes for the middle class ,small business and to pay for this eliminate tax shelters and corporate welfare for the top 5 percent and large business.
In turn all these actions will reduce income inequality and enable the middle class who have a greater propensity to spend drive the economy.
In addition we will have a great infrastructure which will benefit all
1
The U.S. government, in cahoots with JP Morgan, is trying its very best at damage control. It deals in derivatives in order to gain more leverage and it props up the market as best it can while suppressing the price of gold and silver. It has "leased" the same gold to multiple entities and it will only be a matter of time before the scheme is unveiled. There is a reason the U.S. could not return the gold Germany asked for a couple years ago. It was not available.
5
In the last decade China has become the largest trading
partner of countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
This is why there is so much concern about Chinese
economic slowdown. We may be stable but we don't buy
huge amount of commodities, minerals, coal, oil,copper
from these countries. We are unlikely to be a growth
engine for emerging markets. Our biggest trading
partner, Canada, is not doing well and China will try
to increase exports to us. At company level, China has
become a major market for autos, airplanes, iphones.
slow down there will hurt these and other large companies.
There is also "wealth effect" of stock market on spending
psychology. With market tanking and investors losing
their wealth there will be constraint on spending spree
unless they can use home equity as ATM just like before
2008 crisis.
partner of countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
This is why there is so much concern about Chinese
economic slowdown. We may be stable but we don't buy
huge amount of commodities, minerals, coal, oil,copper
from these countries. We are unlikely to be a growth
engine for emerging markets. Our biggest trading
partner, Canada, is not doing well and China will try
to increase exports to us. At company level, China has
become a major market for autos, airplanes, iphones.
slow down there will hurt these and other large companies.
There is also "wealth effect" of stock market on spending
psychology. With market tanking and investors losing
their wealth there will be constraint on spending spree
unless they can use home equity as ATM just like before
2008 crisis.
3
Not as long as we continue to support a very destructive Republican agenda. We have to re-learn what is best for our nation, not for the Rich. All of our citizens must share in the total benefits of being American. As it now stands, it is looking more and more like the english won our war of independence, not the citizens of America.
17
If the U.S economy is that stable, why American people are unhappy in many ways such as stagnated salaries, people doing two to three jobs to make both ends meet and the outcry against H1B Visa, which is very genuine.
Only the other day there was huge outcry in The Upshot against hopeless healthcare. There are far too many stories about the suffering of American people on account of this policy which simply can't be wrong. Further there is too much of income inequality there and people are not even provided with the minimum basic facilities such as paid maternity and sick leave. There is no uniform policy of minimum wages even throughout the country.
You want us to believe that everything is rosy in America while masking comfortably the persisting racial bias, gun violence and waging unnecessary wars in the Middle East. It would have been nice if the report were to be balanced, unfortunately not.
Only the other day there was huge outcry in The Upshot against hopeless healthcare. There are far too many stories about the suffering of American people on account of this policy which simply can't be wrong. Further there is too much of income inequality there and people are not even provided with the minimum basic facilities such as paid maternity and sick leave. There is no uniform policy of minimum wages even throughout the country.
You want us to believe that everything is rosy in America while masking comfortably the persisting racial bias, gun violence and waging unnecessary wars in the Middle East. It would have been nice if the report were to be balanced, unfortunately not.
25
The United States has the largest, most robust and diversified developed national economy in the world.
US exports as a % of GDP is about 13% of the economy, with most exports going to the far more stable North America region.
A global downturn does not materially impact the health of the aggregate economy, though specific companies and industries can and will be affected by such.
The nation is an oasis of peace and security in a world full of turbulence and violence. It is a nation of laws, a diverse land of immigrants and a democracy, which attracts the best and the brightest around the world to the country.
People who live in this great country often complain the loudest about it, but recent citizens of the country know far better just how lucky we are to be citizens here.
US exports as a % of GDP is about 13% of the economy, with most exports going to the far more stable North America region.
A global downturn does not materially impact the health of the aggregate economy, though specific companies and industries can and will be affected by such.
The nation is an oasis of peace and security in a world full of turbulence and violence. It is a nation of laws, a diverse land of immigrants and a democracy, which attracts the best and the brightest around the world to the country.
People who live in this great country often complain the loudest about it, but recent citizens of the country know far better just how lucky we are to be citizens here.
23
Swell. Let's have the rest of the world grow while we relatively stagnate. Who bears the brunt of slow or no growth in the US? Certainly not the 1%. The income of the 99% has been more or less stagnant since 1979. You are talking about sweeping global initiatives on the part of the US government. Who is the US government? It's the Kochs, the Waltons, the Adelsons, and other impersonal corporations that dictate the laws the rest of us live under. Their pet legislators mind very well.
Do they have the slightest interest in the welfare of the 99%. They do not live in the same world, are not subject to the same rules (especially taxes), and anything that negatively affects us phases them not at all. They will simply move their money and corporate headquarters somewhere else. So why would they allow us to change the equation?
It's the social stability of the US that concerns me. Trump and Sanders are the megaphones of a very very angry populace that is fed up. Lofty abstracts do not mean much when you know that the future for you and everyone you know is simply more of the same grinding rip off by the corrupt. The .01% has sown the wind. The question is not if, but when does the whirlwind come?
Do they have the slightest interest in the welfare of the 99%. They do not live in the same world, are not subject to the same rules (especially taxes), and anything that negatively affects us phases them not at all. They will simply move their money and corporate headquarters somewhere else. So why would they allow us to change the equation?
It's the social stability of the US that concerns me. Trump and Sanders are the megaphones of a very very angry populace that is fed up. Lofty abstracts do not mean much when you know that the future for you and everyone you know is simply more of the same grinding rip off by the corrupt. The .01% has sown the wind. The question is not if, but when does the whirlwind come?
23
Underneath all this doom and gloom the world is doing rather well. Food to eat adequate accommodation. Good healthcare for all in almost all the developed world.
The only think broken is the economy and that is a relic of past centuries that we hadn't figured out how to replace.
The only think broken is the economy and that is a relic of past centuries that we hadn't figured out how to replace.
3
Well maybe you have good healthcare in Canada, not so here.
1
The United States is awash with anger and fear. The elites underestimate the tidal wave. If the US economy crashes, given the dysfunctional nature of the American political system, I suspect those who think they are running this nation will be in a state of shock. I don't look forward to such an outcome. I dread it. A nuclear nation with delusions of grandeur run by 'crazies' is not going to be fun to live in -- especially when people who elected the crazies realize they've been duped.
21
I am not sure our economy is that stable with the great inequality we currently have and insured people still suffer from medical debt.
Neither is our society stable. We have gunmen occupying a federal facility threatening to fight federal law enforcement personnel if threatened. Had we let people use public land without restrictions, we wouldn't have any national parks to show for today. Please drive to Mt. Rushmore and see the area for yourself. It appears that federal land conservations were started a bit late there compared with other national parks or monuments.
Neither is our society stable. We have gunmen occupying a federal facility threatening to fight federal law enforcement personnel if threatened. Had we let people use public land without restrictions, we wouldn't have any national parks to show for today. Please drive to Mt. Rushmore and see the area for yourself. It appears that federal land conservations were started a bit late there compared with other national parks or monuments.
7
ANYTHING interdependent - a human body, or, the global economy has certain strengths, but, it's weaknesses are more profound.
A car with 'unibody' construction DOES enable the vehicle as a whole, to survive less scathed than when cars were bolted together. But, it's the parts - including the passengers - which AREN'T part of that monocoque, which can suffer more harshly, as any impact is heightened, rather than lessened by the singularity of strurcture.
When things are 'going well,' no one bothers to understand - or even think that, if the situation does become reversed (and, everything does naturally ebb & flow), the same things which give the whole it's strength will also cause failures to be felt that much more severely.
Ships are built with watertight compartments - to prevent the entire vessel from suffeirng what could be kept isolated.
But, as was seen during Titanic, when the seals aren't able to isolate a part, massive damage does happen.
There are no 'safety valves 'built in to this globalised economy, no plans are in order to jettison a part which, if left unchecked WILL have global consequences.
A car with 'unibody' construction DOES enable the vehicle as a whole, to survive less scathed than when cars were bolted together. But, it's the parts - including the passengers - which AREN'T part of that monocoque, which can suffer more harshly, as any impact is heightened, rather than lessened by the singularity of strurcture.
When things are 'going well,' no one bothers to understand - or even think that, if the situation does become reversed (and, everything does naturally ebb & flow), the same things which give the whole it's strength will also cause failures to be felt that much more severely.
Ships are built with watertight compartments - to prevent the entire vessel from suffeirng what could be kept isolated.
But, as was seen during Titanic, when the seals aren't able to isolate a part, massive damage does happen.
There are no 'safety valves 'built in to this globalised economy, no plans are in order to jettison a part which, if left unchecked WILL have global consequences.
13
I think the US markets are overreacting. Get rid of computers trading by themselves, all these crazy investments and just invest in a company.
3
Forgot to mention Modi's trip to Pakistan, an important positive development between two hostile nations that have massive numbers of nuclear weapons pointed at each other.
Turmoil in the ME is the new normal and will be far more problematic for Europeans than the US.
China's "slowing" GDP growth is still the size of the top two countries on the article chart added together. They will have plenty of adjustment problems but the impact to the US is small.
The US has some advantages in stability and transparency and tends to attract capital flight from other countries, which works its way into the economy.
Our biggest problem is the perception that the US has to "fix" everything in the world, like most recently the rift between Saudis and Iranians. This is a core part of GOP foreign policy ideology. GOP Presidential candidates promise to entangle the US in the ME and possibly also in the Indian Ocean, Korean Peninsula and elsewhere.
I will miss Obama's cool headed global leadership.
Turmoil in the ME is the new normal and will be far more problematic for Europeans than the US.
China's "slowing" GDP growth is still the size of the top two countries on the article chart added together. They will have plenty of adjustment problems but the impact to the US is small.
The US has some advantages in stability and transparency and tends to attract capital flight from other countries, which works its way into the economy.
Our biggest problem is the perception that the US has to "fix" everything in the world, like most recently the rift between Saudis and Iranians. This is a core part of GOP foreign policy ideology. GOP Presidential candidates promise to entangle the US in the ME and possibly also in the Indian Ocean, Korean Peninsula and elsewhere.
I will miss Obama's cool headed global leadership.
9
Many followers of Globalization have said that "Economic Interdependence" assures Peace in the world.
If another nation collapses, it will impact our interdependent economy and we will then have to worry about internal conflict instead of another nation.
So you see, the idea that interdependence assures peace is untrue. It only amplifies economic failure.
If another nation collapses, it will impact our interdependent economy and we will then have to worry about internal conflict instead of another nation.
So you see, the idea that interdependence assures peace is untrue. It only amplifies economic failure.
3
Remember the War of 1812? There was an embargo, so Americans had to make their own stuff instead of importing it from England. Let's try that again, instead of importing it from China!
20
The American oligarchs would never agree to that. The movement of manufacturing to the Far East has increased their profits and incomes exponentially, hence, to them the movement back to your past, long gone, would not even be a consideration. They are still more than willing to wait out any of these upheavals.
10
American merchant ships were trading with the Chinese through the port of Kowloon before and after the War of 1812. We traded opium and seal pelts for blue and white porcelain dinner sets. Of course the stock market worked a little slower back then since it took a few months to sail halfway around the world.
1
When are world leaders going to realize that our current globalized economic system will never be able to sustain infinite growth on a finite planet?
How much more currency can we create out of thin air before the entire system collapses upon itself?
How much more currency can we create out of thin air before the entire system collapses upon itself?
19
Since trade is only about 23% of US GDP, I don't see why we wouldn't be just fine, especially if we refrain from wasteful wars.
7
The US an island of stability? Low interest rates have led to a massive stockmarket bubble and a real estate bubble almost a s big a the last one. Once those start collapsing the US economy will look very sick. One of the secrets to bubble economies is always blame someone else for the collapse of the bubble, and this time it will be China.
11
Massive stock market bubble? Check historical levels of stock growth, which have been at sustainable 10% levels for a longtime. Also note that the US stock market actually had net zero growth last year. Be careful of applying your ideology without spending time with the facts and rational economic analysis.
Markets tend to under-react, and then overreact. But the belief that China's growth would continue forever at such high levels was delusional. We should have expected it, just as the reality that zero interest rates could not possibly go on forever.
Doomsayers, especially anti-capitalists, will predict the end of the global economy. But we have survived worse, and will continue to thrive in the future.
Relax.
Doomsayers, especially anti-capitalists, will predict the end of the global economy. But we have survived worse, and will continue to thrive in the future.
Relax.
6
I used to think the US should step back from trying to manage the world and let other nations manage their own affairs. I thought that would help us avoid more stupid wars in far away places where we are not welcome. Now I'm beginning think the world is (and has always been) too messed up to manage much of anything without support and possibly guidance from the US, whether we like it or not. I see now that we are intertwined with the world and its economies and as the world goes, so eventually go we. So it is in our own interest to continue to work for global peace and prosperity. Someone has to do it.
4
PurpleP: Yes, but...Of course everyone wants to encourage peace and prosperity and global happiness and good governance, without sounding or acting like an incessant scold, or a bully, or a policeman. Or an undercover spy and force for evil. The USA needs to set a good example of how Democracy and good governance is done, meaning how a good democracy, a good country, operates. Doing more is usually a mistake.
5
There are 3 reasons why we cannot police the entire world:
1.We don't have the money.
. . . and it doesn't really matter what the other 2 are.
1.We don't have the money.
. . . and it doesn't really matter what the other 2 are.
1
The mismatch between U.S. stability and the rest of the world -- and not just economic stability -- will indeed come to and end if any of the ham-handed, blustering, International Relations Amateur Hour contestants of the G.O.P become President. You can count on it. Voting for any of those candidates is the political equivalent of naked short selling, and you very much will not like the ultimate "failure to deliver."
12
This reads like the last chapter in Bernanke's book...... and I agree with both this oped and Bernanke. We're the engine that could and can lead to global economic growth and prosperity but it will take a global village philosophy to make it happen.
6
Pretty darn interesting article. I do beg to differ with your conclusion however.
I believe the repatriation of American wealth and manufacturing would again make America an even bigger powerhouse economy in the world, more self reliant and self sustaining which is very important in case of war or political isolation as happened during World War II and after which a multi-decade American prosperity ensued. Unfortunately, along came greed and a waning of patriotism in business that resulted in the export of vast swaths of our wealth and economy in the name of Globalization.
Where I disagree with you is the idea of waiting for the world to catch up with us the improve our exports. I think we must repatriate our lost economy and reinvigorate our manufacturing to satisfy our demand while abandoning free trade ideas that enrich other nations instead of ours.
Following World War II, our largely protected economy was vigorous and strategically secure.
Now, I'm worried about our economy should China's fail.
In the meantime, for those with the responsibility of investing funds, please invest in American hometowns instead of other nations. It could be your hometown that benefits and grows, thus enriching yourself while being patriotic.
I believe the repatriation of American wealth and manufacturing would again make America an even bigger powerhouse economy in the world, more self reliant and self sustaining which is very important in case of war or political isolation as happened during World War II and after which a multi-decade American prosperity ensued. Unfortunately, along came greed and a waning of patriotism in business that resulted in the export of vast swaths of our wealth and economy in the name of Globalization.
Where I disagree with you is the idea of waiting for the world to catch up with us the improve our exports. I think we must repatriate our lost economy and reinvigorate our manufacturing to satisfy our demand while abandoning free trade ideas that enrich other nations instead of ours.
Following World War II, our largely protected economy was vigorous and strategically secure.
Now, I'm worried about our economy should China's fail.
In the meantime, for those with the responsibility of investing funds, please invest in American hometowns instead of other nations. It could be your hometown that benefits and grows, thus enriching yourself while being patriotic.
18
It doesn't work that way. Investment follows the established supply chain, industrial purchasing and project development. The U.S. would be more secure had we received those promised shovel ready jobs and building projects to fix and upgrade our roads, bridges, infrastructure and electrical grid - all of which are the very definition of hometown America, because that is where all that infrastructure is and where those jobs would've migrated to, instead of just North Dakota oil drilling.
2
My sense is that if we have a Republican presidency in 2016, the US economy will drop. A Right leaning government will seek to reduce government entitlement programs like Medicare, Social Security, unemployment insurance, etc.
A fall in the US economy may then lead to downturns around the world, and this will pull the US down, more and more.
I believe that stability in the US need moderation in government spending. But I am afraid we may be headed in the wrong direction. Churchill say, "you can always count on the Americans to do the right thing, after they have tried everything else."
I am hoping we can stay the course with a Democratic president in 2016...
A fall in the US economy may then lead to downturns around the world, and this will pull the US down, more and more.
I believe that stability in the US need moderation in government spending. But I am afraid we may be headed in the wrong direction. Churchill say, "you can always count on the Americans to do the right thing, after they have tried everything else."
I am hoping we can stay the course with a Democratic president in 2016...
6
The Donald seeks to expand Medicare into an universal right , repatriate manufacturing and has empathy , like no Dem, for the suffering of citizens of nations all Dems cheer our bombing of - the Donald espouses the best of the Dem ideology in fact , while the Dems themselves only in fiction
4
U.S. presidential elections will be a major political event during 2016. From a global perspective, the key issue is whether the next president will be able
to maintain the US as a global force for stability after the apparent lethargy of President Obama’s administration. Another period of a United States that
lacks direction in its foreign policy, combined with a reluctance to engage with military forces in difficult regions, will create deep security problems.
Europe needs to step up its ability to deal with emerging security issues, although that is an unlikely outcome without leadership from the USA.
Any sign that a credit contraction is hampering Chinese growth would imply that it is necessary for the People’s Bank of China, to push monetary policy
in an expansionary direction. In such a scenario, the Renminbi would weaken and that would imply second round depreciation in the rest of Asia.
In any such scenario we would also see continued turbulence on commodity markets as well. Its going to be a very turbulent year, hopefully the U.S will
remain stable.
to maintain the US as a global force for stability after the apparent lethargy of President Obama’s administration. Another period of a United States that
lacks direction in its foreign policy, combined with a reluctance to engage with military forces in difficult regions, will create deep security problems.
Europe needs to step up its ability to deal with emerging security issues, although that is an unlikely outcome without leadership from the USA.
Any sign that a credit contraction is hampering Chinese growth would imply that it is necessary for the People’s Bank of China, to push monetary policy
in an expansionary direction. In such a scenario, the Renminbi would weaken and that would imply second round depreciation in the rest of Asia.
In any such scenario we would also see continued turbulence on commodity markets as well. Its going to be a very turbulent year, hopefully the U.S will
remain stable.
1
Germany has the highest standard of living outside of the United States (arguably), the largest population in Europe and interests all over the world.
Perhaps the government of Germany should not be so lethargic? Perhaps Germany should show show some leadership in foreign policy? Perhaps Germany should invest in a military and put combat troops in harm's way?
Germany should do the things noted above or perhaps Germany should mind it's own business and comment on an article in Die Welt.
Perhaps the government of Germany should not be so lethargic? Perhaps Germany should show show some leadership in foreign policy? Perhaps Germany should invest in a military and put combat troops in harm's way?
Germany should do the things noted above or perhaps Germany should mind it's own business and comment on an article in Die Welt.
4
"Germany has the highest standard of living outside of the United States "
Countries with a higher standard of living than the US, based on per capita income: Qatar, Luxembourg, Lichtenstein, Singapore, Brunei, Kuwait, Norway, U.A.E., and Switzerland. Other countries with higher incomes than Germany: Saudi Arabia, Ireland, Bahrain, the Netherlands, Austria, Australia, and Sweden.
If you go by median income instead, then the Norwegians, Swedes, Danes, and Australians all are better off than Americans. Better off than the Germans are Canadians, South Koreans, Kuwaitis, the Dutch, New Zealanders, Austrians, Finns, and Japanese.
So don't be going under the assumption that the US and Germany are doing the best, because they aren't when you look at the question of whether you'd want to live there.
Countries with a higher standard of living than the US, based on per capita income: Qatar, Luxembourg, Lichtenstein, Singapore, Brunei, Kuwait, Norway, U.A.E., and Switzerland. Other countries with higher incomes than Germany: Saudi Arabia, Ireland, Bahrain, the Netherlands, Austria, Australia, and Sweden.
If you go by median income instead, then the Norwegians, Swedes, Danes, and Australians all are better off than Americans. Better off than the Germans are Canadians, South Koreans, Kuwaitis, the Dutch, New Zealanders, Austrians, Finns, and Japanese.
So don't be going under the assumption that the US and Germany are doing the best, because they aren't when you look at the question of whether you'd want to live there.
3
@Michael Anthony
Germany is enganged in the refugee crisis like no other nations, this already is more than enough.
But, as unlikely as it seems, it is german money that keeps lot of countries in the EU afloat, after Wallstreet have pilaged them with subprimes (yes, they have lend money from the germans for this fraud scheme, but lending money for a wrong cause is not our fault).
Just because germany is not bombing someone does not imply we are not engaged. Infact we are doing a lot to clean up this world.
Germany is enganged in the refugee crisis like no other nations, this already is more than enough.
But, as unlikely as it seems, it is german money that keeps lot of countries in the EU afloat, after Wallstreet have pilaged them with subprimes (yes, they have lend money from the germans for this fraud scheme, but lending money for a wrong cause is not our fault).
Just because germany is not bombing someone does not imply we are not engaged. Infact we are doing a lot to clean up this world.
I wonder if we can ever think of economies in terms of sustainability rather than growth... at least the earth might have a chance to support the weight of us.
22
There can be no Capitalism as we know it without growth!
Trying to sweeten us up for TPP then, eh. Because the working and middle classes here haven't taken quite enough of a hit on jobs and wages yet, and that's bad for us as a nation.
Bernie 2016.
Bernie 2016.
12
So much for the trickle down economics that started with Reagan. What we have is trickle up poverty. Jobs are being shipped overseas, employers here are using low cost illegal labor in an effort to compete with China and the middle class is vanishing. Combine that with the cost of medical treatment in this country and we wonder why white middle class men are committing suicide. Take a construction worker that was making a decent living in 2007, now he can't get a job, because the guy he used to work for picks up a couple of guys at Home Depot for 50 bucks. Talk to a middle age engineer who lost his job in 2008 and was replaced by a H1 B engineer from India. Take a war that costs trillions in blood and treasure and left many harmed for life. We wanted third world Walmart prices, well we got them. Now watch us turn into the third world. TPP will only exacerbate the situation. We are tied too much to China. The dollar remains strong, but no one can afford to buy our stuff.
58
From my understanding TPP does not include China, and actually acts as a stabilizing force against China's economic domination in the region. We are "tied too much to China" because they are the second largest economy in the world, and have a billion plus potential consumers.
There are truths to the rest of what you say, but it over simplifies things.
There are truths to the rest of what you say, but it over simplifies things.
6
You are correct, China not part of the TPP, and that is precisely what is shuddering China's economy. Some of the people in China who have been making gains in wages and safety will now see those jobs shifted to Vietnam and Indonesia. We're always chasing the cheapest source of labor. This is like NAFTA, all the jobs go to Mexico and even though there are jobs, the Mexicans come north to make better wages, working for less than minimum wages off the books.
1
It used to be that when America sneezed, the rest of the world would catch cold. Now, when China sneezes, it's America which catches cold. One can't help but notice how little Wall Street actually knows about the movements of China's economy and people, given their mad scramble reactions to it.
4
The real global economic problem is a permanent oversupply of labor that has affected other countries more so than the USA.
Due to technology, population growth and globalization there are just too many people for too few jobs.
Technology has made the private sector a job killer, it takes fewer people to create everything that is needed and will continue to reduce its labor requirements.
Globalization and population growth will continue to increase the work force.
It is well past time for global governments to become active job creators.
Global governments must implement war time economies without the war.
Instead of building things that kill and destroy, jobs must be created in infrastructure projects, health care, education and recreation.
There is no shortage of roads, schools and hospitals that need to be built on the planet.
The choice is clear, there will be war time economies on the planet without the war or they will exist with the war.
Due to technology, population growth and globalization there are just too many people for too few jobs.
Technology has made the private sector a job killer, it takes fewer people to create everything that is needed and will continue to reduce its labor requirements.
Globalization and population growth will continue to increase the work force.
It is well past time for global governments to become active job creators.
Global governments must implement war time economies without the war.
Instead of building things that kill and destroy, jobs must be created in infrastructure projects, health care, education and recreation.
There is no shortage of roads, schools and hospitals that need to be built on the planet.
The choice is clear, there will be war time economies on the planet without the war or they will exist with the war.
25
It is past time top reduce the human population growth curve. There are 7.5 billion people now on the planet and not 7.5 billion jobs. Within our lifetime, there will be 11 billion humans and still not 7.5 billion jobs. It is absolute lunacy to genuflect to the trope that more people means more consumers which fixes everything and we all live happily ever after. We have destroyed species, fouled the oceans, air and soil. There are too many of us, especially in 3rd world fractured, backward religious and misogynist locales that are warrior dictatorships standing on the neck of all females to be illiterate sex slaves and baby makers. What we are seeing in Germany is a glimpse into the near future due to unchecked population growth flooding the few lifeboats.
20
All this talk about how President Obama is destroying the country, Seven years into Obama’s presidency, the U.S. economy is growing rapidly enough to boost his popularity and to sell the country on the idea that Obama’s peculiar brand of ostentatious incrementalism—building out and improving existing institutions, directing resources through them to the middle class—has worked, and should serve as a beacon not just for liberals, but for conservatives aspiring to recapture the presidency. Give credit where credit is due- my message to all the Obama Haters!
68
Island of Stability??? Tens of thousands killed each year by guns. More people imprisoned that all the rest of the world put together. Dysfunctional Congress. The only advanced nation that does not have universal healthcare. Lack of paid maternity leave. Huge inequality between a tiny group of uber-wealthy and a great mass of workers who are poor or have fallen out of the middle class. Inequality of opportunity.
And this is stability?
And let's not get started with a bloated defense budget, which is larger than the rest of the world put together. Money going to the military, but little for people.
This is stability?
Other empires have fallen due to wars abroad sapping coffers and stability at home.
The economy may be in relatively good shape. But tell that to the poor, the imprisoned, the vets with PTSD, the folks whose family members were killed due to gun violence, the people whose vote has been restricted (or nullified due to gerrymanders). Etc.
The economy is just one measure. Of stability.
And this is stability?
And let's not get started with a bloated defense budget, which is larger than the rest of the world put together. Money going to the military, but little for people.
This is stability?
Other empires have fallen due to wars abroad sapping coffers and stability at home.
The economy may be in relatively good shape. But tell that to the poor, the imprisoned, the vets with PTSD, the folks whose family members were killed due to gun violence, the people whose vote has been restricted (or nullified due to gerrymanders). Etc.
The economy is just one measure. Of stability.
43
Yes, but this article is about the US economic my in relation to the rest of the world, not a general assessment of all problems.
6
And the rest of the world is without those or worse problems? Study some history and you'll see that things are always 'unstable'. The fact is we are in way better shape than anywhere else right now. And that is because in the last 7 years we have actually PROGRESSED despite those issues. That is the key to success. The world is never perfect. Let's hope whoever takes the reins next year were keep the eye on the future as President Obama has.
2
Crippling student debt, stagnant wages, lower workforce participation, exporting jobs, unsustainable healthcare system, unsustainable retirement benefits system, huge aging population time-bomb with next generation being priced out of being able to afford a child....it would seem to be the very thing we are NOT is stable.
15
"Against that gloomy backdrop, the consensus economic forecasts for the United States — the International Monetary Fund forecasts 2.8 percent growth in 2016 — look pretty terrific. The American stock market indexes, despite the global sell-off and major hits to oil companies’ earnings, remain above their September levels."
Why choose September, of all 12 months, for comparison? Is it because the Dow was at its lowest level for the year in September and that you've cherry-picked this point simply to help bolster your argument? The trend line through 2015 to today is roughly level, or is slightly declining-- that would be the more appropriate way to view the way the market's going.
Why choose September, of all 12 months, for comparison? Is it because the Dow was at its lowest level for the year in September and that you've cherry-picked this point simply to help bolster your argument? The trend line through 2015 to today is roughly level, or is slightly declining-- that would be the more appropriate way to view the way the market's going.
1
Um, because September is the beginning of 4Q.
And the lowest for the Dow was August 24 - Sept. 1 = a week of correction pain.
And the lowest for the Dow was August 24 - Sept. 1 = a week of correction pain.
1
A clue to how the rest of the world is going financially is the purchase of high rise condos in Manhattan, costing in the tens and hundreds of millions of dollars, by oligarchs from Russia, China and the Middle East. They want a place to go when their nations go financially or politically south, which they must believe is at least a strong possibility. China at least has lots of empty apartments, but few want to go there.
9
The US an Island of Stability?
Alredy the premise is questionable as the US economy depends much to much on speculators money and gambling not unlike the Chineses economy.
And as all of the 'Casinos' of these world are interconnected the instability of one of them always becomes the instability of all of them.
And economical growth is no measurement for stability - especially if the populace is growing faster.
So in conclsuion Switzerland might be an Island of Stability and not the US - just look at the US homeless numbers!
Alredy the premise is questionable as the US economy depends much to much on speculators money and gambling not unlike the Chineses economy.
And as all of the 'Casinos' of these world are interconnected the instability of one of them always becomes the instability of all of them.
And economical growth is no measurement for stability - especially if the populace is growing faster.
So in conclsuion Switzerland might be an Island of Stability and not the US - just look at the US homeless numbers!
4
I'm glad the world bank and IMF have down-graded their 2016 forecasts. They are still too high, but then again, neither, including the Fed, has ever gotten even one forecasts correct.
4
The Dow just had the worst first 4 days of a new year in history. And we have never gone more than 10 years without at least one year of GDP +3% (until now). Obviously, the rest of the world is a disaster.
So what do we do? Well, at least half of the US seems to think we double down on the 8 years of policy that have helped us arrive at this point. The other half is divided by 2. The first quarter thinks there was once a guy in a giant boat that saved two of every species of animal from a huge storm thereby saving all species. That's a concern. The second quarter actually has common sense. The tragic truth is that 25% of the US pop with common sense will not be good enough.
So what do we do? Well, at least half of the US seems to think we double down on the 8 years of policy that have helped us arrive at this point. The other half is divided by 2. The first quarter thinks there was once a guy in a giant boat that saved two of every species of animal from a huge storm thereby saving all species. That's a concern. The second quarter actually has common sense. The tragic truth is that 25% of the US pop with common sense will not be good enough.
6
It's an absurd premise: does any major economy thrive while other major economies suffer? No way, not historically at least. Look at the world wars (which encompass the great depression). Look at the great recession based on the massive debt default of consumers and insurers. The US federal reserve acts based on policy, which is driven by politics, not economics. This is a huge, institutional accident waiting to happen, and as the great bailout taught us, the American tax payer is the ultimate bag holder.
4
Globalization at its finest, people. If you move tens of thousands of jobs to China, who is going to buy all the junk they make? The Chinese factory worker earning $0.50/hour? Kill off the American middle class and the world economy goes with them.
61
Compounded by allowing carte blanche entry of 60 million uneducated and unskilled legal-illegal latinos since the collapse of U.S. manufacturing in the 1970s, along with one million others annually. Whatever could go wrong there?
17
Oh, you mean your lawn service, the waiter and cook at your favorite restaurant, the construction workers who did your addition, the roofers who just fixed or replaced your roof?
You wanted low prices and were perfectly happy to let employers set wages so low that only Mexicans will do them. Fire them, deport them and let's see who fills (if anyone) their shoes and what kind of job they do.
You will not be happy when that happens, guaranteed,
You wanted low prices and were perfectly happy to let employers set wages so low that only Mexicans will do them. Fire them, deport them and let's see who fills (if anyone) their shoes and what kind of job they do.
You will not be happy when that happens, guaranteed,
9
According to the New York Times, the U.S. trade deficit has swelled 15.6 percent, to $48.3 billion. This means we pay foreign countries $48.3 billion a year more for their products than they pay for our products.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/07/business/economy/us-trade-deficit-surg...
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/07/business/economy/us-trade-deficit-surg...
2
Bill, you better read that again. The $48.3 billion is just for August. Our trade deficit with China alone in 2015 will be around $400 billion this year or, about half what we spend on Social Security. In any event, you're right in believing there is nothing stable about our economy unless, one considers being a slave to perpetual debt is stability.
2
On the one hand, thanks Obama! And I mean it: He did a lot of things right that have put the US in this position, from the stimulus package that did a lot to keep things from getting worse to appointing Janet Yellen as Fed chair.
As for how to make it less of a problem for the global economy: How about changing the rules to encourage companies to make it more a domestic economy? What makes our government so keen to create tax incentives for businesses that ship jobs overseas, for example? If we're tied less to the fortunes of China, then we'll be more able to manage our own growth when China isn't doing so well.
As for how to make it less of a problem for the global economy: How about changing the rules to encourage companies to make it more a domestic economy? What makes our government so keen to create tax incentives for businesses that ship jobs overseas, for example? If we're tied less to the fortunes of China, then we'll be more able to manage our own growth when China isn't doing so well.
20
We will have to work with the world, so if world suffers we will. But we can reduce the effect by
- Ensuring the fairness rule of law
- Increasing education & research funding(invention is priceless)
- Increase in taxes(let Pfizer and others leave)
- Single payer health-care (copy Canada's and then improve to suite our needs)
- Not electing republican in the white house
Following will help even more
- Reduce Republican control of congress & state houses
- Reduce wars
- Ban weapons and let's use money for creativity
And read NYTimes.
- Ensuring the fairness rule of law
- Increasing education & research funding(invention is priceless)
- Increase in taxes(let Pfizer and others leave)
- Single payer health-care (copy Canada's and then improve to suite our needs)
- Not electing republican in the white house
Following will help even more
- Reduce Republican control of congress & state houses
- Reduce wars
- Ban weapons and let's use money for creativity
And read NYTimes.
47
Given that the USA followed Keynesian stimulus policies because of Obama and Ben Bernake, yes we will be better off than the rest of the world but no we can't escape it, we are interconnected and our exports will fall first of course. This is why we are in much better shape than Europe that followed nutty Republican austerity policy, mostly benefiting the few, the wealthy. We will be right back where we started at some point however unless we outlaw many derivatives, particularly credit default swaps, used to insure mortgages before, basically an unregulated market to gamble and that led directly to the housing crisis and collapse of our banking system in 2008 by fraudulently "insuring" mortgages. They have been kept alive by the financial sector purchasing Congress and the fact that 99.9% of the voters don't understand them. There are some $1,000 trillion (yes 1,000 trillions) in CDFs estimated to be out there It will probably cause the whole house of cards to start falling a second time if Asia goes south, with another round of massive bank bailouts and then stunned banks refusing to loan money even to the creditworthy, 2008-2015 all over again but without as many foreclosures.
8
I was one of the fools back in '10 who was vehemently opposed to QE. I was wrong. It would be a impossible to argue that QE has been anything but a tremendous success. Long live Bernanke.
6
There are many frightening fault lines in the United States financial system right now-- mutual funds and ETP's exposure to the high yield corporate and emerging market bonds which are tied to dollar and US rising interest rates, the liquidation of sovereign funds to cover losses of oil revenues, high redemptions of mutual funds and ETP's forcing down the face value of bonds , slower purchasing world wide, a strong dollar, an overpriced US stock market, banks that have learned nothing, a Congress that would refuse to do anything even in the face of another financial collapse and a Federal Reserve that is out of bullets.
5
Reading the comments is like reading talk from two species. There's zero intercommunication, zero understanding. There's not even any agreement on facts. As far as I can tell, it's mostly the bubbly Kool-Aid they've been feeding on...
3
Sounds like the exact same situation with regards to gun loving NRA members and gun hating liberal/progressives. No point of agreement at all.
1
Yea, well my 401K isn't an island and it's taking a beating. The way things are going I'll never be able to count on it for retirement.
8
Right now I hope Janet Yellen is regretting her decision to push for a rate increase last month.
Perhaps it's too much to hope for, but I want the Fed to learn from this experience and stop listening to bankers when it comes to deciding when to increase interest rates. They have every reason to want rates to go up. The Fed has to take into account the possibility of a downturn, which is real, and may be happening.
Perhaps it's too much to hope for, but I want the Fed to learn from this experience and stop listening to bankers when it comes to deciding when to increase interest rates. They have every reason to want rates to go up. The Fed has to take into account the possibility of a downturn, which is real, and may be happening.
8
Yes but no big deal, a tiny increase that may be a tiny decrease next round.
2
To pretend that America is an "economic" island of good is highly irrational.The "markets" reflect only the wealth of the top 1% global financial elite and are overvalued - it's a paper house of cards falling all around the world. That's what greed does. We learned it in 1929. We learned it in 2008. "Markets" have nothing to do with average people anymore except to have OUR money stolen with meltdowns like this. It's criminal. It MUST be stopped. WE Little People need to get OUR money out of 401K plans, unless they are in U.S. Treasuries only, and buy IRA CDs at local banks and trusted credit unions. Here is the best descriptive video I've seen regarding wealth inequality:
http://mashable.com/2013/03/02/wealth-inequality/
http://mashable.com/2013/03/02/wealth-inequality/
7
Anyone is free to make the choice of investing in equities or not. But if you choose equities, remember that you are not automatically entitled to a good result. If the market tanks, don't claim that your money was stolen.
I don't know why this is being spun as China's fault. We have been pumping billions of dollars of fake currency into our economy for the past 6 years through quantitative easing and have been artificially keeping interest rates low thus creating our own "mini"-bubble. Now that the FED has decided to raise interest rates and when QE eventually ends, we will see how well this recovery has worked. 19 trillion dollars in debt with a new budget passed which adds an additional 2 trillion. Just think, 15 years ago our national debt was around 5.5 trillion. Then we had two terrible presidents run our country into the ground. Change needs to happen and the establishment needs to be undone.
7
I have concluded it is extremely difficult (and increasingly uncommon) for all the major world economies to be healthy at the same time. The reality is even smaller economies can perturb ours. Remember Greece? An economy roughly the size of Ohio and look at how its ill health affected world markets and Fed policies.
So I am not very optimistic about the future of the world economy.
So I am not very optimistic about the future of the world economy.
2
President Obama should get a lot of credit here. Republicans talk about the US economy as though it's in a free-floating bubble when they say the US can and should grow at 4% YoY. It's not going to happen in isolation, especially in a zero-growth world.
29
Stop it. Obama did nothing. Literally. What little recovery there is - the paltry 2% growth - is all due to tepid but brave investors not having anywhere else to go. We will have more economic troubles, in fact, because Obama did not reign in Big Banking. At. All. They are bigger than ever and more destined to fail more than ever, and once again take us all down with them. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and a host of other govt. programs were the culprits, falsely guaranteeing and encouraging no to low incomers to buy home they could not afford - along with Big Banking and Moody's liars. Removal of Glass Steagall protections in 1999 made the merger of commercial banking with investment banking a sure thing on the path of corruption and market collapse of strange, deformed investment products such as credit default swaps. Bank are back to selling variants of CDS again, btw. .
6
You've got to be kidding. if it wasn't for Obama, we would be in the tank, like Europe is.
34
Vinay - did you know that we have never gone 10 straight years without GDP growth EVER exceeding 3% PA? Unfortunately, this impressive record is about to be broken; remarkably, its being broken within the context of what was supposed to be a "recovery". Obama did more than nothing - in fact, his regulatory shackles have torpedoed this would-be recovery from the start. But Its not just Obama...its a failure of leadership across the board in this country. I would also blame the media (NYT top of list unfort) for focusing much too much on social victimhood rather than REAL issues that matter for ALL Americans. This has meant that the average American or at least the self obsessed millenialls are totally ignorant of the harm this leadership is doing. They dont have time to look up from their phones. Looks like its going to take a good old fashion recession in order for Washington to quit worrying about being PC and focus on what needs to be done to grow this pathetic economy.
2
"But there are two basic questions about the notion that the United States can serve as an island of economic and political stability in a messy world."
The first question should be, is the US currently "an island of economic and political stability"?
The first question should be, is the US currently "an island of economic and political stability"?
7
Probably. If we didn't keep panicking and running back and forth in the boat. So much of our financial health depends on our confidence that things will work out. Reagan (not my favorite President) did a good job in terms of inspiring confidence in an era where things weren't actually any better than they are now and it helped. In our system if (collectively) we don't spend because we worry about having nothing to spend in the future, then we really won't have anything to spend...
The election of Reagan was the beginning of the slide in the standard of living for working people.
58
::Sigh:: It began in the early 1970s, which was one long decade of inflationary recession, coupled to the shift from a manufacturing/blue collar economy to a knowledge tech economy. Remember WIN = Whip Inflation Now? It was a deadly decade for even the educated Baby Boomer college grads who emerged to find no jobs until the mid-1980s and that was married to 18% interest rates. The reality is that the 1950s and 1960s were an anomaly enjoyed by the postwar U.S., because we were the only ones left standing amid the WWII wreckage, and our manufacturing economy made out like a bandit selling industrials to other nations. Then, it all self-corrected in the 1970s. There will never again be that one off anomaly. The 1940s were a climb out from the Depression but then the 1970s to the present were a global normalization of which the U.S. is part and parcel.
4
My prediction is that things will affect us sharply right before the next election. Manufactured or not manufactured, the crisis will compel people to vote with fear...again. Republicans will blame Obama's policies (instead of Wall Street or China), and Democrats will struggle to communicate a complicated world to simple voters.
8
How is this Wall streets fault? The 08 crisis, yes, blame Wall street. We are now an entire business cycle removed from that. So explain how this is Wall streets fault? Blaming wall st is a convenient political excuse from economic charlatans on the left.
I heard on NPR that the US economy is doing better than other countries due to the fact that our economy mostly relies on consumer spending?
4
This concise but thoughtful reflection upon the fate of the U.S. economy is a breath of fresh air. Interconnectedness of the world economy is just one of many complex factors affecting prosperity in the U.S. When things go right or wrong, the reasons are far from simple and straightforward. There's a lesson here for folks who like to turn every issue into a partisan debate. Who happens to be President when the global economy turns sour is a matter of limited consequence. Those who answer every question of why with either the Republicans or the Democrats are simple-minded thinkers who reduce the most complex matters to true or false.
5
Michjas: correct on all counts. Fortunately, the blame falls on both parties which have become tools of the banks in their essence. America has become a jingoistic tribe of plutocrat worshippers that have the combined economic sense of a hamster on its squeaking wheel. The interconnectedness is being read the wrong way: the rest of the world actively suffers from our instability and the cost of our market tinkering in service to the banks.
4
20 years ago you could rent a nice apartment in Manhattan for $1k a month.
There has been almost no increase in US wages in the interim.
Today that apartment might be $6k - 8k per month rent.
The price to purchase NYC real estate has escalated even more sharply.
I'll believe the global economy has crashed when those numbers start to reconcile, adjusted for any inflation.
Or to put it another way. That is how far certain global commodities such as NYC real estate have inflated and how far they may fall.
Or to put it another way, NYC is just not 8X cooler than it was 20 years ago. It's just not. So why should it cost 8X more?
There has been almost no increase in US wages in the interim.
Today that apartment might be $6k - 8k per month rent.
The price to purchase NYC real estate has escalated even more sharply.
I'll believe the global economy has crashed when those numbers start to reconcile, adjusted for any inflation.
Or to put it another way. That is how far certain global commodities such as NYC real estate have inflated and how far they may fall.
Or to put it another way, NYC is just not 8X cooler than it was 20 years ago. It's just not. So why should it cost 8X more?
7
I wouldn't say it's 8 times cooler but a lot more people are giving up on the dream of a yard for the kids to run in for the dream of living in the city and having stuff to do all the time. So, no, not 8X cooler, but possibly 8X more desirable.
The tide of moving out to the suburbs has inverted.
The tide of moving out to the suburbs has inverted.
2
NYC costs more because foreign speculators are buying co-operative apartments.
9
That is partly due to the *doubling* of the U.S. population and the global population since the 1970s. Supply and demand. Actions have consequences. Much of that population growth was the unskilled, uneducated who do not start small businesses and grow the economy, btw. There are still plenty of affordable places to live in America, just not in the 10 or so largest urban cities.
1
There is a mathematical answer to this question, and that answer is no. The American economy is much more tightly interconnected with the global economy than we would prefer to believe. It is so interconnected, in fact, that the notion of global diversification has become almost dated. What is happening in China could be happening in Detroit and the effect would be similar. The loss of meaningful global diversification has made The World too big to fail.
3
Heh. Unemployment figures look good until you look at workforce participation; which is down. Until you look at compensation; which is stagnant or down, with ever-worsening benefits and job security; until you look at the type of jobs being generated in greatest numbers -- lower-paid service jobs.
America is an island of "stability:" until you look at the generation coming out of college with crushing debt; until you get to 2020, when 60 percent everybody born up to the crest of the baby boom (~1953) is 67 or older and facing old age on under $50K of savings and SS -- and many with none. And until you start seeing the beginnings of a population crash in the younger generations because children aren't affordable. Where are your consumers then?
And of course years more of predation on the American people by the banks, Wall Street, and most especially the "health" complex.
You call it stability. I call it the calm before the storm.
America is an island of "stability:" until you look at the generation coming out of college with crushing debt; until you get to 2020, when 60 percent everybody born up to the crest of the baby boom (~1953) is 67 or older and facing old age on under $50K of savings and SS -- and many with none. And until you start seeing the beginnings of a population crash in the younger generations because children aren't affordable. Where are your consumers then?
And of course years more of predation on the American people by the banks, Wall Street, and most especially the "health" complex.
You call it stability. I call it the calm before the storm.
192
Or until you look at there unemployed, defeated 50 and 60-year-olds who lost jobs, have stopped even looking and likely will never be employed again.
6
Great analysis Bob. Spot on.
As they say "can't get any better" yet well off families sing the lullaby of distopic sadness. CNN behaves more like Fox News than, Fox News. Society seems like a town Hall meeting organized by the An Rand fan club. The world economy news is much more devastating that the actual economy. Greece did not slip into the sea and you can still play blackjack in San Juan. The Japanese economy has endured deflation for a decade and comic books still rule there. China grew so fast that the size of ordinary garden cabbage shrunk by fifty percent. There are more rare earth metals in Afganastan than oil riches in Kawait (but no digging ever occurs there). Wild Forage fish are disappearing because ther're used in the feeding of farmed fish and no one cares. Keeping up with America is an outright loosing game and North Korea understands the kookiness of global gamesmanship.
1
Yes, if we vote for continuity at the White House in November......
8
A few quick points:
1. The 2016 "forecast" of change in GDP isn't even solid enough to be fools gold, given the fact that the GDP has averaged what 0.5% during the entirety of the failed Obama presidency, with GDP showing negative growth until "revised" by the WH to show nominal figures?
2. It's quite easy to project 2016 GDP growth as huge given the fact that it hasn't been for the entirety of the Obama presidency, that's the nowhere to go but up, glass is half full paradigm at work.
Neil's article relies on pie in the sky forecasts of unrealized and unrealistic GDP growth. I mean, if you're in the Obama WH and you're paying some think tank for GDP projections in a legacy year for an outgoing failed president, what are you going to do? Undershoot?
1. The 2016 "forecast" of change in GDP isn't even solid enough to be fools gold, given the fact that the GDP has averaged what 0.5% during the entirety of the failed Obama presidency, with GDP showing negative growth until "revised" by the WH to show nominal figures?
2. It's quite easy to project 2016 GDP growth as huge given the fact that it hasn't been for the entirety of the Obama presidency, that's the nowhere to go but up, glass is half full paradigm at work.
Neil's article relies on pie in the sky forecasts of unrealized and unrealistic GDP growth. I mean, if you're in the Obama WH and you're paying some think tank for GDP projections in a legacy year for an outgoing failed president, what are you going to do? Undershoot?
4
Tomorrow's jobs report is said to be the highest monthly total for 2015. December, 2015 will make it 69 consecutive months of positive job growth. This all adds up to over 7 million jobs under the Obama administration. And all this happening while the repair of the American economy after the Bush disaster.
We're not stupid here. Neither are you. As a Black Washington District of Columbia Lawyer I'd like to know how you can possibly adhere to notions that have been debunked too many times to count?
Can you tell why you believe in this manner? A genuine question.
We're not stupid here. Neither are you. As a Black Washington District of Columbia Lawyer I'd like to know how you can possibly adhere to notions that have been debunked too many times to count?
Can you tell why you believe in this manner? A genuine question.
12
Can you please give us examples of how this presidency failed?
7
As of January 7, 2016, nothing Barack Obama promised Obamacare would be from 2007-09 happened. Obamacare is a tax. Obamacare does not save $2500 per year per family in America. Obamacare did not lower healthcare costs. Obamacare did not cover the 34 million uninsured Americans Obama promised in 2008, and of course, if you liked your plan, you lost it.
The ACA is known as the "signature" achievement of the Obama presidency. Failure.
African Americans have lost more wealth during the Obama presidency than at any point since the Great Depression. Failure.
Barack Obama promised to unite the country, heal the divisions in Washington DC and end politics as usual. Failure.
The TPP, hailed as Obama's historic trade deal that he was willing to bypass Congress to do anyway, is now defunct with world leaders not returning to the bargaining table to save it. Failure.
Barack Obama, the liberal progressive pro-environmental President, approved offshore drilling and artificially lowered gas prices by selling oil from US strategic reserves. Failure.
Transparency and rule of law will be cornerstones of my administration--Barack Obama, 2009. Failure.
Candidate Obama ridiculed the Bush tax cuts as tax cuts for the rich, and promised to end the Bush tax cuts and use the savings to pay down the deficit. President Obama extended the Bush tax cuts more times in 3 years than Bush did in 8. Failure.
Shall I continue? There's lots more.
The ACA is known as the "signature" achievement of the Obama presidency. Failure.
African Americans have lost more wealth during the Obama presidency than at any point since the Great Depression. Failure.
Barack Obama promised to unite the country, heal the divisions in Washington DC and end politics as usual. Failure.
The TPP, hailed as Obama's historic trade deal that he was willing to bypass Congress to do anyway, is now defunct with world leaders not returning to the bargaining table to save it. Failure.
Barack Obama, the liberal progressive pro-environmental President, approved offshore drilling and artificially lowered gas prices by selling oil from US strategic reserves. Failure.
Transparency and rule of law will be cornerstones of my administration--Barack Obama, 2009. Failure.
Candidate Obama ridiculed the Bush tax cuts as tax cuts for the rich, and promised to end the Bush tax cuts and use the savings to pay down the deficit. President Obama extended the Bush tax cuts more times in 3 years than Bush did in 8. Failure.
Shall I continue? There's lots more.
3
Why does it seem like over 75% of the media keep telling us that the low price of oil is somehow bad for us? Maybe bad for the oil companies and the related industries but it an absolute windfall for everyone else! Consumers, all other industries, local, state, national governments, we all benefit from the lower price of oil. They said Americans saved $115 billion on our gas bill in 2015.
Are you folks just parroting what the oil people and their investors say? Sure seems like it. I'd like to know why.
Are you folks just parroting what the oil people and their investors say? Sure seems like it. I'd like to know why.
18
I don't disagree with your statement, but low oil prices means that we'll never be incentivized to divest from fossil fuels. That's probably what the producers are thinking keeping the prices low. They still make a load of money, and we, the suckers, keep coming back to them for more.
7
So Americans saved $3 each over the course of the year?
Bring on global warming if it means I can buy an extra cup of coffee this year!
Bring on global warming if it means I can buy an extra cup of coffee this year!
ZL, I have wondered that too if the incentives would disappear. Low gas prices have fueled sales of gas guzzlers like pickups and big SUVs. The most I wonder about is where did the Bell Curve of fossil fuel use go? Aren't we supposed to running out of fossil fuel? Where is that discussion?
I believe that we all should, nonetheless, be heartened to see the rush of new technology in alternative energy sources and efforts, such as Germany's decision to be much more reliant on sustainable energy for their future. There is no taking back that trend as there are people who can look into the future.
I believe that we all should, nonetheless, be heartened to see the rush of new technology in alternative energy sources and efforts, such as Germany's decision to be much more reliant on sustainable energy for their future. There is no taking back that trend as there are people who can look into the future.
4
The assumptions under the related theses that the US is (a) a stable economy, (b) a recovering economy, (c) an independent economy are facile fictions. Half of the value of the DJIA and fully one quarter of both the S&P and NASDAQ are comprised of inflated assets that depend heavily on trading churn and free money from the Fed (over the corpse of Glass Steagal). That means that a correction to 8000 in the Dow would simply bring the "market" to something near trading norms. The vast run-up in watered value was built on: criminally negligent valuation of securitized tranches of bad mortgage debt, consipiracy between municipalities and the real estate industry to keep zombie mortgages and astronomical tax valuations afloat, movement in services and manufacturing corner offices to dependence on financial and equity portfolio churning to build income statements, increasingly suspect Federal office/bureau and department numbers regarding everything from unemployment to consumer confidence. Since the maniacs at Lehman, JP Monster and Goldman Snacks turned the treasury and the taxpayer into fungible liquid there is no real American economy any more. If the market depended on the American consumer or taxpayer in the past, it does not do so any more. This bear market has big, sharp teeth and the threat of severe recession is nearly a certainty.
12
Why do you think QE failed? You yourself say the US economy is "revving" along, an island of stability. It certainly isn't fiscal stimulus that keeps the US "revving" and it isn't political stability (see debt limits and government shut downs). The US continues to need easy money because the employment rate doesn't reflect that most of the jobs created are part time or much lower paying due to job export to places like China and an aging population that doesn't need to spend like it used to.
6
QE has been a rousing success. Most of the world's economist and financial analysts have said so. It is right-wing Voodoo economic nonsense to say that QE failed. The American economy has not only completely turned around but the rest of the world is taking a look and has decided to COPY our policies of QE, i.e. Japan and, reluctantly, Europe.
11
My understanding (I could be wrong) is that QE was basically the US gov printing money in the form of bonds, which were given to the banks. The banks were supposed to lend out this money at low interest rates to average folks. The banks sat on most of the money instead.
4
The piper for QE has not yet been paid, Jack, and it is not going to look like any more than a holding pattern as underlying market forces (especially outsourcing and underemployment) change the US into a superannuated caretaker state. With handguns, of course.
3
Whew!
1
"Island of Stability" is laughable. Those who believe US government propaganda about its "rosy economy" are candidates for buying the Brooklyn Bridge. The US economy will hit the wall during the next Presidential administration, if not sooner, and it will make the most recent "recession" look like a honeymoon. Readers should stop wasting time reading US government propaganda, and get to Walmart to start stocking up for Armageddon.
9
Why do so many commenters on the far left -- and I read the press in four languages each day -- think the implosion of the US is imminent? Yet somehow, China, the EU, and Russia will be just fine and all three will replace the US as economic powerhouse and military power. And somehow, those three economies will miraculously prosper on their own, unscathed. Wishful thinking is truly the bane of political extremes in all countries -- whether on the left or the right.
1
So where is your criticism of the right wing?
1
Why do you think the commenters are on the far left? I actually think most of them are on the far right. Especially if you see the Obama bashing.
5
Of course, let's keep in mind the challenges of economic forecasting:
http://www.economist.com/node/21685480
http://www.economist.com/node/21685480
1
Everything is predictable except that which is unpredictable, and those unpredictable things tend to come as a surprise.
2
One thing that the now concluded first 15 years of the 21st century revealed was the following: Too many Americans--not all of them, but too many--are simply too ignorant, ill-informed, belligerent, trigger-happy, and easily manipulated to play a constructive and helpful role in world affairs. Remember, in the weeks leading up to ordering the invasion of Shi'ite-majority but Sunni-ruled Iraq by U.S. armed forces in March 2003, Yale and Harvard graduate George W. Bush was apparently unable to explain and/or understand the differences between Shi'ite and Sunni Muslims. His reward for carrying out this epic disaster was re-election to the presidency by the American people in November 2004 with 62 million popular votes.
The USA can remain an island of relative stability if the belligerent, bloodthirsty neocon types like Sen. Tommy Cotton of Arkansas and others who pledge fealty to Benjamin Netanyahu can be prevented from getting their way. They MUST be kept at bay and treated like the threats to the nation's health that they are.
The continuing and persistent problem with the USA is a mismatch between the overwhelmingly powerful military industrial complex that churns out daily more bombs, tanks, missiles, fighter aircraft and other weapons of mass destruction than any other country can possibly hope to produce versus a large number of people (many of them Ivy League educated like G.W. Bush) who are barely able to distinguish Syria from Saudi Arabia from Iran from Iraq.
The USA can remain an island of relative stability if the belligerent, bloodthirsty neocon types like Sen. Tommy Cotton of Arkansas and others who pledge fealty to Benjamin Netanyahu can be prevented from getting their way. They MUST be kept at bay and treated like the threats to the nation's health that they are.
The continuing and persistent problem with the USA is a mismatch between the overwhelmingly powerful military industrial complex that churns out daily more bombs, tanks, missiles, fighter aircraft and other weapons of mass destruction than any other country can possibly hope to produce versus a large number of people (many of them Ivy League educated like G.W. Bush) who are barely able to distinguish Syria from Saudi Arabia from Iran from Iraq.
117
Harvard and Yale graduate George W. Bush was one of the last "legacy" classes that automatically were granted admission by these schools because of "daddy."
I don't think that any educated person believes that W did any thinking or studying while at these schools, as opposed to drinking and carousing. It's an ugly travesty that these Ivy schools have contributed to a situation that could lead to an ignorant, inarticulate fool like W actually becoming president, with results that have upset the entire world, nevermind the USA.
But instead of recognizing what they have done, the republicans simply "double down" on their racist, misogynist, and ignorant rhetoric in order to play to the most ignorant of us, in the quest for more power.
Is this beginning of the end for America?
I don't think that any educated person believes that W did any thinking or studying while at these schools, as opposed to drinking and carousing. It's an ugly travesty that these Ivy schools have contributed to a situation that could lead to an ignorant, inarticulate fool like W actually becoming president, with results that have upset the entire world, nevermind the USA.
But instead of recognizing what they have done, the republicans simply "double down" on their racist, misogynist, and ignorant rhetoric in order to play to the most ignorant of us, in the quest for more power.
Is this beginning of the end for America?
7
Classic anti-Semitic comment -- blame a Jewish leader you don't like for having mysterious mind control powers over American lawmakers. It's 2016 and the medieval mentality against the Jews just refuses to die.
And within those 52 weeks we will have an election, which could serve has a source of instability or inspiration--for the markets. Sanders seems like the candidate that would take the voodoo out of the system, try to set a concrete foundation, more balance, clear regulation. This might be initially scary for the speculators, the bankers, the financiers; and it might cause a dip, but it would be a correction for long-term fairness and accountability, a vote against ponzi economics. Clinton and Trump and Cruz and Rubio seem like they want to keep playing the Wizard of Oz, pay no mind to the man behind the curtain, business as usual, keep the sandy, porous foundation, printing monopoly money, appeasing the few.
41
That jobless rate you quote is far from an accurate barometer of unemployment and the health of our economy; it doesn't take into account those who have dropped out of the job market altogether after giving up hopes of finding a job, a number that is likely the highest on record.
33
Correct! The "jobless rate" is a totally empty statistic. To show how empty, let's create 25 million jobs, but make them all slaves. There! We've driven down unemployment, but done nothing to help workers or the economy. That the MSM keeps touting this figure as useful shows how far journalism has fallen.
5
Slavery is not a job, but point taken.
Who's most unfairly benefiting from a perception that the economy and status quo are fine? (Hint, it's not us.)
Who's most unfairly benefiting from a perception that the economy and status quo are fine? (Hint, it's not us.)
3
The President and the current administration, of course.
Bring off shored and outsourced jobs home. Also, do not enter into the Trans pacific Partnership. Break up "too big to fail"> Re-enact Glass-Steagall, we can see now how much repealing it in 1999 has been a disaster for this country. More oversight and regulation of Wall Street.
The US needs to take a protectionist stance, so it does not be pulled into the growing eddy of a world wide depression. Right now the US is vulnerable, but simple acts by Congress can save this country, by undoing misguided things they did during the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations.
Finally, the US has to prepare for a repeat of the 1930s, by seriously making plans for a new CCC and WPA. The infrastructure is in terrible shape, and it is quite possible that these jobs will be needed if indeed the worse happens.
Too bad our government doe snot know the meaning of teh wod "proactive".
The US needs to take a protectionist stance, so it does not be pulled into the growing eddy of a world wide depression. Right now the US is vulnerable, but simple acts by Congress can save this country, by undoing misguided things they did during the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations.
Finally, the US has to prepare for a repeat of the 1930s, by seriously making plans for a new CCC and WPA. The infrastructure is in terrible shape, and it is quite possible that these jobs will be needed if indeed the worse happens.
Too bad our government doe snot know the meaning of teh wod "proactive".
35
"The infrastructure is in terrible shape, and it is quite possible that these jobs will be needed if indeed the worse happens."
The GOP will never support any infrastructure spending that requires that all of the work be done by union members who will kickback most of their union dues to the democrats. It has been estimated that this could result in 5 to 10% of all infrastructure spending going directly to the democrats and the GOP would be insane to vote for it.
Perhaps as a compromise, only those states without right to work laws could require union workers while those with such laws could use non-union workers but I doubt if the democrats would agree.
The GOP will never support any infrastructure spending that requires that all of the work be done by union members who will kickback most of their union dues to the democrats. It has been estimated that this could result in 5 to 10% of all infrastructure spending going directly to the democrats and the GOP would be insane to vote for it.
Perhaps as a compromise, only those states without right to work laws could require union workers while those with such laws could use non-union workers but I doubt if the democrats would agree.
5
Charles W. Inadvertently you are giving us even more reasons to view the political buffonery of the Republicans as Un-American. There is no indication that workers who build our infrastructure will vote for democrats. In the meanwhile a first-class nation falls apart because of clownish political ideology.
8
"There is no indication that workers who build our infrastructure will vote for democrats"
They may not vote for the democrats, but their union bosses will see to it that most of their union dues are kickbacks to the democrats whether they like it or not.
They may not vote for the democrats, but their union bosses will see to it that most of their union dues are kickbacks to the democrats whether they like it or not.
2
Wow, you mean it is actually a good thing to have a consumer oriented economy? You know if there was ever a time that investing in infrastructure makes sense it is now while the cost of commodities and the price of labor are low and the budget deficit is at its lowest since.....the last Democrat was in the White House. But it appears the only thing Austerian Republicans want to spend money on are weapons systems (especially the capital intensive stuff that won't help defeat ISIS or prevent terror at home). Come on America let's drag the Republican Party into the 21st Century rather than let it slide back into the 19th.
204
The idea that evil Republicans are standing in the way of noble Democrats' ambitions to improve the nation's infrastructure is totally absurd. Completely. In fact, it is layer upon layer of government regulation that makes it very difficult to impossible to improve that nation's infrastructure.
1
I agree to most of your statement about the republican BUT the problem with the democrat is Hilary Clinton, I don't trust her.
2
Educate me? Regulations? Seems like an easy ill defined answer to a very complex question.
3
Why, it is not good for the public, either, let alone political factions, that the US is so economically out of step with the rest of the world.
"And central banks have flooded the world with so much easy money that it’s not clear what further benefit new efforts would have."
Where is this easy money everyone's always talking about? Govt and financial sector balance sheets say it's there, but we regular working/struggling folks (99%) sure haven't had it easy.
I'm not sure exactly how all that "easy money" from central banks is supposed to help the real economy if it never leaves the balance sheets of big banks and investors. As in 2008, we STILL need new roads and bridges, water infrastructure, electrical grid...massive projects that could help our economy and household balance sheets for the next decade, but I see no hope for that happening.
Really, nothing much has changed since 2008, except the fact that somewhere out there, evidently, there is a shipload of "easy money" floating around.
Where is this easy money everyone's always talking about? Govt and financial sector balance sheets say it's there, but we regular working/struggling folks (99%) sure haven't had it easy.
I'm not sure exactly how all that "easy money" from central banks is supposed to help the real economy if it never leaves the balance sheets of big banks and investors. As in 2008, we STILL need new roads and bridges, water infrastructure, electrical grid...massive projects that could help our economy and household balance sheets for the next decade, but I see no hope for that happening.
Really, nothing much has changed since 2008, except the fact that somewhere out there, evidently, there is a shipload of "easy money" floating around.
17
Easy money for corporations and business. They are borrowing at dirt cheap rates, investing and growing but not hiring or handing out raises.
4
The economic mismatch between the United States and much of the rest of the world is not good for either party.
all the more reason to vote for the one man (and only 1 man) who can fix this problem - Donald Trump.
all the more reason to vote for the one man (and only 1 man) who can fix this problem - Donald Trump.
4
How is Trump going to help? By insulting everyone?
42
"all the more reason to vote for the one man (and only 1 man) who can fix this problem - Bernie Sanders".
There! Fixed it for you!
There! Fixed it for you!
50
I cannot take he advice of someone who has a nom de plume of a fictional alien dwarf. As for Trump, we should find out what political leanings his father had during WW II. Daddies are big influences on the tiny minds.
8
Can U.S. Remain an Island of Stability in the Global Economy? No.
6
We can't be immune from the chaos unfolding around the world, but we can minimize its effects. First and foremost we need to scale way back on global investments, and sharply reduce offshoring of goods, services, and jobs. Scrap the TPP, period. We can do this by changing our tax codes and accounting practices to punish offshore investments and reward domestic ones. We need to finally get all the "shovel ready" projects going to create stable, good paying jobs that aren't dependent on the global economy. Longer term, we need to heavily invest in renewable energy and break our dependence on fossil fuels, especially foreign sources. And still longer term, as the majority of Americans finally begin to enjoy a sustainable recovery and can spend and invest more, our tax revenues will climb, and we should begin paying down our debt held by foreign nations, especially China.
What we should NOT do, is continue to take advice from Wall Street and multinationals, as the majority of our elected officials have been doing for decades - both parties. Short answer: Follow Bernie Sanders' prescription.
What we should NOT do, is continue to take advice from Wall Street and multinationals, as the majority of our elected officials have been doing for decades - both parties. Short answer: Follow Bernie Sanders' prescription.
251
Kingfish: all good points, to which I'll add: we need to open our doors to immigrants and increase our support of domestic manufactures at rates that are not undercut by multinationals that outsource our children's future for the sake of blue light specials in aisle 7. This means simplification of the tax code and active promotion of domestic production, including a role for organized labor in the board room (as Germany has always done).
5
We also could grant trade credits to exporters of US goods and services, requiring importers of goods and services to buy the equivalent credits on a regulated exchange -- before releasing dollars to pay for those imported goods and services. That would reward those who create jobs here at the expense of those who move them elsewhere.
This was proposed more that a decade ago to the US Congress, but turned down due to the activity of importer lobbyists.
This was proposed more that a decade ago to the US Congress, but turned down due to the activity of importer lobbyists.
3
Did you this scenario happened in 1929? Closing borders, increasing tarrifs and the rest exacerbated the depression.
The only thing that keeps prices from hyperinflation is globalization. The next depression will come eventually. maybe even this year if US doesn't do another round of QE.
The only hope is that US invent its way out of depression. we'll see.
I'll give a major depression the chance of 85%.
The only thing that keeps prices from hyperinflation is globalization. The next depression will come eventually. maybe even this year if US doesn't do another round of QE.
The only hope is that US invent its way out of depression. we'll see.
I'll give a major depression the chance of 85%.
Where in world do you people come up with the idea that the U.S. is "an island of stability" economically? Any false stability was achieved by selling U.S. federal debt to the highest bidder, and China bought the lions share. The federal debt has increased from less than $11 trillion to more than $18.5 trillion under Obama. That's more debt accumulated by one president than all previous presidents combined. Now that debt will come home to roost if China and other nations decide they want to cash in our notes and bonds. We are broke. Of course we can try to issue more worthless debt and print more funny money. But then inflation would skyrocket and the economy would tank further from its current near lifeless growth rate. This mess falls squarely on Obama and his Keynesian advisors, chief among which is Paul Krugman. Both won Nobel Prizes with smoke and mirrors. Now we will pay the price.
20
Its a bit too amateur to blame Obama, though I am not a fan of his at all. No action is cross sectional, its all accumulated by policies and actions over years. Clinton did not cause surplus, he was president in right era when it was upticking and growth was sky rocketing only for it to topple down under W and Barack inherited it.
19
The debt soars when you have to pay for the things that your predecessors did but deferred payment on... To be fair, he's gotten on board the let's not raise taxes band wagon, and that's not exactly helping the debt, is it?
I mean we tried the laissez-faire approach. That led to the great recession because the banks did whatever they wanted to. That worked out really nicely for everyone involved.
I mean we tried the laissez-faire approach. That led to the great recession because the banks did whatever they wanted to. That worked out really nicely for everyone involved.
36
First, the American public continues to be, by far, the largest holder of US debt. Foreign investors hold about 32 cents of every dollar of US debt; US investors and USG trust funds hold the rest.
Second, US debt more than doubled from 2000-08. Most of the debt incurred under Obama happened in the early years, and for obvious reasons.
Third, Krugman is not an Obama adviser. Indeed, US policymakers have routinely ignored the likes of Krugman for the past decade.
Second, US debt more than doubled from 2000-08. Most of the debt incurred under Obama happened in the early years, and for obvious reasons.
Third, Krugman is not an Obama adviser. Indeed, US policymakers have routinely ignored the likes of Krugman for the past decade.
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But: the cause was concentrated in the US housing and credit markets. If
the US economy does not build up a new credit "bubble", the reverse process
-- the US getting pneumonia from an international flu attack -- seems unlikely
to occur, in my opinion.