What is certain is this: a billion people are acquiring enough capital to buy their first car, their first modern apartment and their first whatever it is you want to sell. China is the U.S. in the 1950s on steroids. It is THE market of the century.
China can do better. But every country can do better. The long-run prospects are good. Chinese people are not stupid - we all know that. Don't underestimate the ability of the rising middle class, the more educated and internationally exposed, continously growing educated elite, to see through the bull^%$ of official propaganda. The CCP is the proverbial child with the finger in the dike. Unfortunately, some of their mistakes will do irreparable damage even after they exit from the stage: cancer rates from pollution, damaged soil and water tables contaminated with heavy metals, etc. For that there will be a future "truth and reconciliation commission." At that point the red elites will and their offspring will be well settled overseas, and a new generation of elites will spring up, perhaps more controlled, situated in a more balanced political-economic structure. In the meantime, the greatest threat is that the CCP manipulates nationalism to a fever pitch to perpetuate their rule -- patriotism is the last refuge of a party without any other source of legitimacy. The U.S. and other countries in Asia must take a principled without being pulled into a game of manipulated domestic perception forming which is being carefully controlled and played out by the Politburo in Zhongnanhai.
As long as China doesn't introduce democracy, everything will be fine. True democracy is scary and dangerous for elites and this is well-known to Chinese upper-crusters. This is why democracy is being minimized in the US. It's such a pain in the neck.
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What this article says is U.S. opinion leaders have no clue the direction China is going, and wishful thinking and groping replace analysis. Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, West has been going through period of fear of blue ants and yellow peril, excitement at the coming collapse of China, disbelieve at the breakneck pace of development, more disbelieve that China did succeed in maintaining that pace, hope of Jasmine Revolution coming to China, and now more disbelieve that China can emerge from the middle income trap, smog, and political encirclement by Obama in Pacific. Life is full of disappointments. I think in 7 more years, when Xi hand over the rein to his successor, it will be clear to all.
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It will not be clear unless China addresses its real problems. Western opinion is not to blame for the disasters that are already overwhelming the abilities of the CCP to cope. Obtuse and fearful reasoning must give way to realistic problem-solving if this government is to even exist for seven more years.
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You are one of those many who never learn from betting the fall of China. China is not problem-free; it is arguably more difficulty to manage than the U.S. I don't see any light up on that. That's why their success is even more admirable.
Lucky you that you did not put any money on your bet or you would have lost everything many times ago.
A stable and successful China is actually a good thing for the U.S. and for the world. You cannot imaging what would happen if the opposite is true.
I only hope that they will not follow exactly what the west had done to the environment but modify enough to mitigate the damage. The mother earth does not seem to be able to provide the western style of living to so many people.
Lucky you that you did not put any money on your bet or you would have lost everything many times ago.
A stable and successful China is actually a good thing for the U.S. and for the world. You cannot imaging what would happen if the opposite is true.
I only hope that they will not follow exactly what the west had done to the environment but modify enough to mitigate the damage. The mother earth does not seem to be able to provide the western style of living to so many people.
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Totalitarian regimes follow the same rule book: when internal problems are boiling to a breaking point, the rulers will divert people's attention to external enemies, often through nationalism boosters such as a war.
Saddam Hussein did it after the war with Iran.
Deng Xiaoping did it after the Cultural Revolution.
Chances are, Taiwan, Japan, and most likely countries around South China sea may experience something very unpleasant if China's economy fall into deep recession.
Saddam Hussein did it after the war with Iran.
Deng Xiaoping did it after the Cultural Revolution.
Chances are, Taiwan, Japan, and most likely countries around South China sea may experience something very unpleasant if China's economy fall into deep recession.
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K.H.,
Not so fast, totalitarian, or communism, China is in name only now, part of U.N community, actively in trade with U.S and other countries...
If they start any non sense like what you said, I don't think China would be China
Not so fast, totalitarian, or communism, China is in name only now, part of U.N community, actively in trade with U.S and other countries...
If they start any non sense like what you said, I don't think China would be China
The adjustment period for China started coincidentally When Xi took over the leadership. It will take China a long time to become a consumption-led economy, matured one in other words. What Xi is doing domestically are the selective top priorities for Chinese Communist Party. However, some of these priorities are not particularly the best for the Chinese people or China. Clearly what is good for the Chinese Communist Party is not always good for the Chinese people. Question lingers if this contradiction will become the major political problem or not.
What Xi is doing outside of China is disaster. Xi is too impatient and too inexperienced in comparison with Den. It is now too difficult for him to lower his raised hand. His international behavior must be something embarrassing for some intelligent people in China.
What Xi is doing outside of China is disaster. Xi is too impatient and too inexperienced in comparison with Den. It is now too difficult for him to lower his raised hand. His international behavior must be something embarrassing for some intelligent people in China.
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There is only the question, the single most important question, and that is....What is the storyline that will placate and possibly inspire the moderates, educated, and middle class Chinese while at the same time insuring the CCP retains complete control? In conjunction with the corruption crackdown
and economic reform efforts, GDP growth will slow. City and provincial leaders do not want to make a mistake now, or be seen as making a decision that could be perceived as an indication of corruption, and in the Chinese system as it exists, that it almost impossible. In the meantime, efforts to fix pollution and the food chain and land theft will continue, fitfully, but enough to keep mass
protest from becoming mass revolt. China will continue to rise, although it may take a form of muddling through.
The total lack of credible polling makes knowing the actual percentage of unemployed college grads unknown, but it's fair to acknowledge the numbers are staggering. For this generation, "Learn from Leifung" DEFINITELY isn't going to cut it, and that seems to be all the Party elders got right now.
and economic reform efforts, GDP growth will slow. City and provincial leaders do not want to make a mistake now, or be seen as making a decision that could be perceived as an indication of corruption, and in the Chinese system as it exists, that it almost impossible. In the meantime, efforts to fix pollution and the food chain and land theft will continue, fitfully, but enough to keep mass
protest from becoming mass revolt. China will continue to rise, although it may take a form of muddling through.
The total lack of credible polling makes knowing the actual percentage of unemployed college grads unknown, but it's fair to acknowledge the numbers are staggering. For this generation, "Learn from Leifung" DEFINITELY isn't going to cut it, and that seems to be all the Party elders got right now.
Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign, while much needed, probably dampens economic activity by as much as a 400 to 500 basis point increase in ten year rates.
Xi Jinping can mitigate this unintended consequence by instituting rule of law that guarantees due process, but that means clipping the wings of his henchmen.
And that is how galloping low income economies get mired in the middle income trap---and stagnate---and descent into political uncertainty. That process has begun.
Xi Jinping can mitigate this unintended consequence by instituting rule of law that guarantees due process, but that means clipping the wings of his henchmen.
And that is how galloping low income economies get mired in the middle income trap---and stagnate---and descent into political uncertainty. That process has begun.
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The future is always uncertain... that many in China are feeling more ambivalent about their futures than previously is not terribly surprising, given the big shifts that have occurred because of China's changing circumstances. What is more worrisome is the apparent resistance among many officials in China who resent the top-down scrutiny they have been subjected to under Xi Jinping, for this suggests that Xi and company may eventually be forced to back down. When (if) that happens, what then? In the absence of independent monitoring of officials' behaviour, one shudders to think...
There is no independent monitoring of officials' behavior in China - those in power monitor those whom they fear. There is always shuddering in China when leaders pretend morality.
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Perhaps this uncertainty has prompted Xi Jinping to travel abroad and seek to shape world politics. He realises that China's economy depends on external factors. Without growth Chinese citizens start to look for government failings and the Communist Party can't legitimise its grip on power.
A thriving global economy is crucial for China to come out of stagnation. Momentarily Islamic terrorism is the source of fear und uncertainty in Europe and South Asia. But China stays out of the fray there, because it doesn't want to interfere in regional politics.
A thriving global economy is crucial for China to come out of stagnation. Momentarily Islamic terrorism is the source of fear und uncertainty in Europe and South Asia. But China stays out of the fray there, because it doesn't want to interfere in regional politics.
China stays out because it is a repressive regime and is afraid of losing cruel power by criticizing other repressive regimes.
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The hope to move China towards an economy with a larger consumer component of GDP at a time when exports are slowing due to a faltering world economy poses some contradictions. Approach any large city and the enormity of the ghost town of empty building is overwhelming, the spaces for population shift from country to town exist but where will the needed employment come from? The small scale enterprises that adorn an city street can be expected as can service industries but skilled workers in high tech industries are needed to make the jump in a balanced developed economic system to underwrite such major change. Those planers looking for means to match reality with political dictates under the Xi-Li government have a task; their befuddlement has to exceed the man on the street or the academic scholars quoted.
People say that China is G2 along with the United States, but in my view, China is still way behind the United States. While China has rapidly enhanced her hardware, there has to be something more than that. Honestly, current Chinese communists do not have that capability. I think.
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As a Chinese, I do agree that there still exists the gulf between China and America. However, China has its own independence to make decisions, either in politics or in economies, without any controlled power from America. Although the current China is suffering a biding time, I do have the confidence of my country cause everything is changing and reforming.
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Of course, Nadan, China remains light years behind the US, whether pessimistic Americans or Communist-sympathizing Westerners see it or not. G2 has been a total mirage, erected and sustained by Western diffidence and Chinese delusion. To suggest China has a shot at catching up with the US is tantamount to claiming Czarist Russia could supplant Pax Britannica, citing only 'hardware' as you rightly pointed out. So, yes, US citizens need to better appreciate your unprecedented and unparalleled might, which means calm and patience as your President wisely advised, while my mostly brainwashed compatriots, like this ZIQING, needs to know better about how it came about, what it is and where it is heading.
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So it's either an aloof indifference to the world, here called 'independence,' or submitting to the 'control' of America. One or the other.
This comment provides a perfect example of the binary thinking that dominates Chinese policy-making and indeed, Chinese society.
This comment provides a perfect example of the binary thinking that dominates Chinese policy-making and indeed, Chinese society.
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I doubt the people who are waiting for an "end" will get their wish any time soon. The Chinese may institutionalize some of the practices, as indicated by a recently passed anti-terrorist law and their drive towards a consumer-based economy from an export-driven economy.
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