Interesting read about the coin toss. Now if you will excuse me, I have to go solve Fermat's last theorem with a proof that fits on the back of a single postcard. They seem to have the same level of complexity.
How is a 60% increase in 2 point attempts "not hugely different"?
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"100 tries of either type would yield 94 points, so what’s the difference?"
This is specious reasoning.
Most times a single is attempted in perfunctory fashion - even at the new distance. Most times when a deuce is attempted, it is needed to adjust the score. Why doesn't a team like the Cardinals with Carson Palmer attempt a two-point conversion? They are usually ahead and don't have to do that.
If life and football only had a quantitative aspect, this argument for a two would be valid. Alas, there is the qualitative to think about. All points do not have the same feel. Football is a game of emotion, psychology, and momentum. Unless you really need two or have foolproof play up your sleeve, then a team should not risk the diminution of the uplifting, positive effects of a touchdown.
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As far a Belichick, he has elected to kick off before in an overtime but under different conditions. Usually he defers to begin a game. Quite frankly, I think Bill was thinking about other things, and by force of habit he mechanically gave the order to kick off like an automaton.
A very human mistake which I am sure will not be repeated.
This is specious reasoning.
Most times a single is attempted in perfunctory fashion - even at the new distance. Most times when a deuce is attempted, it is needed to adjust the score. Why doesn't a team like the Cardinals with Carson Palmer attempt a two-point conversion? They are usually ahead and don't have to do that.
If life and football only had a quantitative aspect, this argument for a two would be valid. Alas, there is the qualitative to think about. All points do not have the same feel. Football is a game of emotion, psychology, and momentum. Unless you really need two or have foolproof play up your sleeve, then a team should not risk the diminution of the uplifting, positive effects of a touchdown.
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As far a Belichick, he has elected to kick off before in an overtime but under different conditions. Usually he defers to begin a game. Quite frankly, I think Bill was thinking about other things, and by force of habit he mechanically gave the order to kick off like an automaton.
A very human mistake which I am sure will not be repeated.
Right. Coaches are playing averages when they decide whether to go for two - they are playing for the specific situation. Even with the increased misses on PATs, it doesn't make sense to take the risk of a missed 2-point attempt early in the game because you don't know how the rest of the game will play out.
Greg,
Just saw you on MSNBC. You should read up on CTE. Maybe start here:
http://www.bu.edu/cte/about/what-is-cte/
Just saw you on MSNBC. You should read up on CTE. Maybe start here:
http://www.bu.edu/cte/about/what-is-cte/
"Dallas is now 4-11." And Jerry Jones is still the billionaire-in-charge, getting richer every day from 'America's Team' merch. And ain't that what the NFL is really all about anyway? The M-O-N-E-Y!!!
To combine several of your points, the Patriots should have gone for two after scoring their late touchdown. Then they would be up one and the Jets would have to be much more desperate trying to score in the time remaining. They do not go for two much, but they have great personnel for it. Why take the risk of overtime when you are two yards from winning the game outright?
Thanks for putting into print the idiocy of fussing over creches at Christmas. It is nothing other than the victim complex that goes with being authoritarian. As my priest said a few weeks ago, it is also, technically, a war on Advent.
Thanks for putting into print the idiocy of fussing over creches at Christmas. It is nothing other than the victim complex that goes with being authoritarian. As my priest said a few weeks ago, it is also, technically, a war on Advent.
And on the 50 percent chance they missed the two pointer, they'd just about assure a loss. If I'm Belichick, I figure my chances in OT are greater than the chance of converting the two pointer.
Having just read the novelization of the movie, when Rey powered up the Millennium Falcon she activated a tracking beacon which alerted Han Solo giving him the Falcon's location. He went immediately to retrieve his beloved ship. All other coincidences generally can be attributed to "The Force" working in strange and mysterious ways. I'm waiting for the tale of the lightsaber which is described as Luke's and Anakin Skywalker's. Last it was seen it and Luke's hand were falling down the requisite bottomless pit on Bespin's Cloud City
Yeah, the force explains away the coincidences. If you really want to criticize the movie, explain why a ship that can suck all the power from a star has to shot anything. Just suck all the power off the star around the planet you want to destroy and it will hurdle off into space and everyone will freeze to death. They could have killed two birds with one stone - sucked away the Republic capital's star and then shot the energy at the alliance base. No need to make it two steps.
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In the movie, Han made a comment about the tracker being activated.
Reading this column takes longer than the average NFL game (okay I'm a slow reader), and it's more entertaining than most games I've seen lately. Thanks.
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As former resident and ardent follower of the Chargers, I can indeed assure that Leaf most certainly was a bust, both as a QB and a person...
What happens if Pats kick off to the Jets: (From best to worst scenarios, Pats perspective))
1. Turnover by Jets resulting in a touchdown (win)
2. Punt by Jets run back for a touchdown (win)
3. Safety by Pats (win)
4. Turnover by Jets in good field position
5. Take over on downs in good field position
6. Punt by Jets resulting in good field position
7. Take over on downs in bad field position
8. Punt by Jets resulting in bad field position
9. Field goal by Jets (Pats receive a kickoff and chance to tie (field goal) or win (touchdown))
10. Touchdown (loss)
If someone can supply some probabilities for each of these (specifically for these two teams, on this day) then perhaps we could have an informed opinion about whether Bill was right or wrong.
1. Turnover by Jets resulting in a touchdown (win)
2. Punt by Jets run back for a touchdown (win)
3. Safety by Pats (win)
4. Turnover by Jets in good field position
5. Take over on downs in good field position
6. Punt by Jets resulting in good field position
7. Take over on downs in bad field position
8. Punt by Jets resulting in bad field position
9. Field goal by Jets (Pats receive a kickoff and chance to tie (field goal) or win (touchdown))
10. Touchdown (loss)
If someone can supply some probabilities for each of these (specifically for these two teams, on this day) then perhaps we could have an informed opinion about whether Bill was right or wrong.
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This is sound reasoning by a person who has studied statistics or probability.
However, the best defense against a score and a loss is possession of the ball by the offense. Then you can control you own destiny by scoring, and minimize the probability of the other guys scoring. Yes, you can have an interception or a fumble. But the ball is in your hands.
Therefore, electing to receive in overtime is a no-brainer. There is nothing to be gained from defending.
However, the best defense against a score and a loss is possession of the ball by the offense. Then you can control you own destiny by scoring, and minimize the probability of the other guys scoring. Yes, you can have an interception or a fumble. But the ball is in your hands.
Therefore, electing to receive in overtime is a no-brainer. There is nothing to be gained from defending.
Wrong. What happens if you elect to receive, and kick a field goal? The other team gets FOUR downs every time the chains move, because there's no reason to punt on that drive. Automatically, they can have a much easier time than your team did (while facing punt decisions on most of the 4th downs that came up for you) trying to score a field goal or touchdown. It is not simply a "no-brainer". There's more to it than you think.
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Not commenting on right or wrong, but I can see a mentality here that follows baseball - in extra innings you'd rather be the home team, knowing exactly what you need to do in your half of the inning...and can opt to play for one run if necessary...the away team must choose between manufacturing one run, or trying to generate more than one.
The differences are that in baseball you don't have a choice, and the mentality applies to every single extra inning played...where in football in only applies to the very first possession...after that any score wins.
In the NFL scenario, unless you score a touchdown on that very first possession you MUST stop your opponent at least once regardless, and I can see some coaches willing to take the chance to stop them first.
The differences are that in baseball you don't have a choice, and the mentality applies to every single extra inning played...where in football in only applies to the very first possession...after that any score wins.
In the NFL scenario, unless you score a touchdown on that very first possession you MUST stop your opponent at least once regardless, and I can see some coaches willing to take the chance to stop them first.
The commentary on OT coin toss choices left out an important consideration: The team that plays defense first gets to defend against "normal" 3-down play-calling and likely punts in most 4th down situations, and if they give up just a field goal, they themselves get to try for their own score with 4-down play-calling, since punting is of course removed from the equation. This seems like an underrated advantage to me, especially considering the Patriots offense which right now relies on high percentage short and medium passes, more so than other teams. Another small (tiny, I suppose) consideration is that on this day, a tie was just as good as a win for the Patriots.
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Perhaps a more significant reason that NFL coaches eschew two-point conversions is the limited number of goal line plays that coaches are interested in showing opponents. Coaches may have decided that unless the two-point conversion is necessary to have any hope of winning, that they would prefer to save goal line plays for touchdown opportunities.
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I usually love you curmudgeonly defiance to suspension of disbelief, but I have an issue this time.
a. The coin-incidence of Han locating the MF quickly is actually explained in the movie, and this explanation also makes it clear that stealing a ship and running away is not actually wise or easy, call it the lo-jack effect.
b. Food is a renewable resource, and therefore much easier to use as means of exploitation. Once you have a hyperdrive or antigravity device, presumably your are independent, or at least less dependent than without. if you cannot control your access to food, you are quite dependent. I don't think the limit in either case is technological, but more a comment on exploitative nature of market driven economies.
a. The coin-incidence of Han locating the MF quickly is actually explained in the movie, and this explanation also makes it clear that stealing a ship and running away is not actually wise or easy, call it the lo-jack effect.
b. Food is a renewable resource, and therefore much easier to use as means of exploitation. Once you have a hyperdrive or antigravity device, presumably your are independent, or at least less dependent than without. if you cannot control your access to food, you are quite dependent. I don't think the limit in either case is technological, but more a comment on exploitative nature of market driven economies.
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I probably enjoyed the Panthers' loss more than any other game this season, just to see that arrogant smirk get wiped off Cam Newton's face.
He was getting unbearable. The hubris was stinking up the entire stadium.
Now I'd like to see them crash and burn in the playoffs, along with the cheating Patriots.
He was getting unbearable. The hubris was stinking up the entire stadium.
Now I'd like to see them crash and burn in the playoffs, along with the cheating Patriots.
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[[But only 93 two-point conversions have been attempted, not hugely different from the 58 attempted in the 2014 regular season.]]
It's a sixty percent increase. How is that not "hugely different"?
It's a sixty percent increase. How is that not "hugely different"?
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Compared to a 600% increase in PAT misses?
Earlier this season, the host Vikings won the overtime coin toss against the visiting Rams. Due to the high winds at the University of Minnesota stadium, Coach Zimmer opted to not receive, and was able to kick with the wind? How did this happen? Was this another example of Adventures in Officiating?
Basically, in OT, if you win the toss, you get 1 of 3 choices; kick-off, receive the kick-off, or defend a goal. The Vikings chose to defend a goal(the one from which the wind was blowing). The rams then could choose between kick-off or receiving the kick-off. They chose receiving the ball; as it wouldn't make sense to kick into the wind and give up the ball. Therefore, the Vikings got to kick-off with the wind. Hope that helps.
Depending how you look at it, you either have 2 or 4 choices. You can choose whether to kick or recive, or you can choose direction. The four choices would be kick, receive, defend goal A, or defend goal B. If you want to kick, then you should choose a direction because 99% of the time the other team will choose to receive.
San Francisco, not Santa Clara, right?
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Two footnotes on the coin toss gate:
1) If you believe your defense has a good chance of forcing the other team to punt from deep in their own territory, but not a good chance of your offense moving the chains to within field goal range from the 20-yard line, you may want to defer in the calculated hope of getting better field position. In this game, where the Pats had a much better defense than offense, that may have been the case.
2) The more plausible conspiracy theory is this: By the time you got to overtime BB knew that the Steelers had lost and that a win for the Jets would most likely eliminate the Steelers from the playoffs. The steelers is perhaps the only team that could win in Foxboro. So save Brady and Gronk and let the Jets get the ball and the W.
1) If you believe your defense has a good chance of forcing the other team to punt from deep in their own territory, but not a good chance of your offense moving the chains to within field goal range from the 20-yard line, you may want to defer in the calculated hope of getting better field position. In this game, where the Pats had a much better defense than offense, that may have been the case.
2) The more plausible conspiracy theory is this: By the time you got to overtime BB knew that the Steelers had lost and that a win for the Jets would most likely eliminate the Steelers from the playoffs. The steelers is perhaps the only team that could win in Foxboro. So save Brady and Gronk and let the Jets get the ball and the W.
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Charla is from Boston? Apologist!
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What if the Jets lose to Buffalo? Not impossible when they have lost to them at home earlier. There is no way Bellichik was going to let the Jets enter the playoffs. A defeat for the Jets would have destroyed the team and the fans and New England's only threat for the immediate future would have been gone. Now the Jets have got their mojo back and would be a real threat for the division title next year.
Except the Pats are still fighting for the #1 seed. And does anyone think Belichick would throw a game against anyone, let alone the team he hates the most?
I was with you until you suggested that Ryan Leaf wasn't a bust. Believe me, as a Chargers' fan (yes, Virginia, there are Chargers fans), Ryan Leaf was a bust from the minute he rerouted his first plane trip to San Diego following the draft to land in Las Vegas. He went downhill from that point.
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Agreed. Leaf was the poster boy for someone who was worshiped in college and swallowed whole his press about how wonderful he was.
His implosion was inevitable - give a 22 year old adulation and millions of dollars, absolutely no adult supervision, dozens of hangers-on telling him how great he is as they spend his money, and Leaf is the result.
Drug addict, criminal, ex-con, small intellect, no impulse control whatsoever.
His implosion was inevitable - give a 22 year old adulation and millions of dollars, absolutely no adult supervision, dozens of hangers-on telling him how great he is as they spend his money, and Leaf is the result.
Drug addict, criminal, ex-con, small intellect, no impulse control whatsoever.
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Are shepherds really out there in cold dec-jan and would there have been a lamb born on Dec 25? Or was the birth of Christ more likely in March-April time-frame?
More on the Adventures of Refereeing Lion's game:
1) Golden Tate catches a punt after calling a fair catch. He is hit by a defender. Flag is thrown. Upon review which clearly show the defender hitting Golden Tate and no one else withing 2 yards of him, the refs rule that the defender was blocked into the receiver. Even the in-studio ref of the Fox sports guys couldn't justify it.
2) Calvin Johnson catches the ball takes two steps and falls the ground, then the ball pops out. Was it a catch? a fumble? No Calvin Johnson is once again the victim of the Calvin Johnson rule: No Catch , prompting the Fox Sports analyst to say "I don't think I understand what a catch is"
Join the rest of us and the players apparently.
More on the Adventures of Refereeing Lion's game:
1) Golden Tate catches a punt after calling a fair catch. He is hit by a defender. Flag is thrown. Upon review which clearly show the defender hitting Golden Tate and no one else withing 2 yards of him, the refs rule that the defender was blocked into the receiver. Even the in-studio ref of the Fox sports guys couldn't justify it.
2) Calvin Johnson catches the ball takes two steps and falls the ground, then the ball pops out. Was it a catch? a fumble? No Calvin Johnson is once again the victim of the Calvin Johnson rule: No Catch , prompting the Fox Sports analyst to say "I don't think I understand what a catch is"
Join the rest of us and the players apparently.
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Stats gurus - any seasons in recent memory where a team played such high quality competition and still made the playoffs (let alone took top seed)?
It sounds to me like it would be rare, but perhaps not.