I have no idea what "temperament" means if you are comparing Trump and Howard Dean. I do remember that John Kerry's temperament didn't do him much good.
7
The more media talk that tries to debase Donald Trump the more support it will drum up. So the negative coverage actually whips up more frenzied fury and allegiance from the citizen underdogs. Watch out, people LOVE this guy. They really do. I've said this before and I'll say it again, Mr. Trump can win on his anti-immigration platform ALONE. He's hit a raw nerve no others have even considered touching. The third rail of PC politics.
12
Media coverage? They cover car accidents too. Your theory would then say newspaper coverage of a car accident drums up more accidents.
People look at Trump in one of two ways: a political novice who thinks he's magically smarter than everyone else, or as a liar and a bigot, Pilgrim.
People look at Trump in one of two ways: a political novice who thinks he's magically smarter than everyone else, or as a liar and a bigot, Pilgrim.
8
God save us from Rubio!
Wait till more people become aware that:
1) he lied about his parents escape from the Castro regime (they were economic refugees who sought work in Las Vegas, which was crawling with Mafia at the time)
2) his sister was married to the # 2 cocaine dealer in South Florida (the brother-in-law went to jail for among other things, being involved in murder)
3) the brother-in-law and his kingpin boss got out of jail as soon as Marco became Senator
4) Marco has a Sugar Daddy who also happened to give his wife a part-time $54,000 a year job
5) Marco can't manage his personal finances and mixes his own accounts with those of the Republican Party
Marco's pretty face won't save him when all this comes out in the wash.
Wait till more people become aware that:
1) he lied about his parents escape from the Castro regime (they were economic refugees who sought work in Las Vegas, which was crawling with Mafia at the time)
2) his sister was married to the # 2 cocaine dealer in South Florida (the brother-in-law went to jail for among other things, being involved in murder)
3) the brother-in-law and his kingpin boss got out of jail as soon as Marco became Senator
4) Marco has a Sugar Daddy who also happened to give his wife a part-time $54,000 a year job
5) Marco can't manage his personal finances and mixes his own accounts with those of the Republican Party
Marco's pretty face won't save him when all this comes out in the wash.
26
"How Donald Trump Could Win, and Why He Probably Won't"
keep whistling past the graveyard. a seismic shift is coming...
keep whistling past the graveyard. a seismic shift is coming...
13
I also recall "How could Nixon have been elected President? No one I know voted for him." or words to that effect.
16
Two weeks ago I watched a Trump revival meeting in Beaumont Texas with a friend who grown up in Communist Hungary. He was unable to watch after about 20 minutes. This is not about Trump it is about America and it is about now. Capitalism is dead. Interest rates in Canada are 0%, Prime in Europe is -.3%. Our western economies no longer work if you want your saving to grow send them to India. Trump is well placed to take advantage of a country where the middle class has shrunk 10% in ten years. Nothing is going to change when you have a completely impotent government and corporations that have no borders.
Whether Trump wins or not fear and anger will triumph in 2016. I am more fearful of Cruz and Rubio, some think them reasonable men.
The USA is the most powerful nation that has ever existed and can provide everyone of its citizens with the necessities of life but prefers coercion and humiliation to affirmation. Trump has scored big with his winners and losers narrative and we should all be sore afraid.
The narrative that the government is not your friend is a reality, the government has been drowned in the tub we are dependant on corporations whose only loyalty is to the bottom line and we have given more than we could afford of our freedom and democracy to enhance that bottom line. Drowning men will grasp at anything.
Whether Trump wins or not fear and anger will triumph in 2016. I am more fearful of Cruz and Rubio, some think them reasonable men.
The USA is the most powerful nation that has ever existed and can provide everyone of its citizens with the necessities of life but prefers coercion and humiliation to affirmation. Trump has scored big with his winners and losers narrative and we should all be sore afraid.
The narrative that the government is not your friend is a reality, the government has been drowned in the tub we are dependant on corporations whose only loyalty is to the bottom line and we have given more than we could afford of our freedom and democracy to enhance that bottom line. Drowning men will grasp at anything.
24
Vote for Bernie Sanders and all your prayers will be answered unless your are the wealthiest 1% in America. But, let's talk about Trump because he is so much more entertaining. There is no end to the desire to talk about so little by so many.
18
It simply amazes me that anyone pays any attention to either polls or pundits this early in the race. This is like predicting the weather 6 months from now.
Anything can happen. Get out and vote to make sure the right thing happens.
Anything can happen. Get out and vote to make sure the right thing happens.
10
The Donald is unelectable. All the rest is talk.
7
I thought we had all moved from stage one, Denial, to stage 2, Anger, but it seems like you haven't moved on yet Mr. Cohn. But seriously, Trump will probably get the nomination and then lose to Hilary. Or not, one can always dream.
9
Past is not prologue in DT's case, and his candidacy is like no one else's in recent history. How many candidates are self financed and beholden to no large donors?How many capture his spontaneity? So many millions have invested DT with a charisma--the ability to heal--that for the establishment GOP to choose any other candidate would be political suicide. Republicans will either win with Trump or lose without him. If convention is brokered, and he is not nominated, his supporters will stay home. Of course, there r many in the G0P, such as the has been, Karl Rove, who, I believe would rather see HRC become c-in-c rather than TRUMP, so deep is his hatred for DT and his candidacy.Trump is a tribune, the vox populi for millions, and having a candidate who is truly innovative, and speaks their language, the electorate could never go back to an establishment politician. Recognize that there r many in the GOP who would rather sit the election out and plan for 2020, by which time they hope to have moderate, establishment types in charge of the party.They r as intolerant as the liberal left.
6
"How many candidates are self financed and beholden to no large donors?"
Bernie Sanders isn't self-financed, because he isn't rich (solidly middle-class, but not a millionaire). But he's also not beholden to large donors: His financing is almost entirely from people giving $30-50.
"How many capture his spontaneity?"
Oh, I can think of lots of candidates that jump before they look. Chris Christie, for instance, is very spontaneous, but I wouldn't consider that a good quality to have in a president.
Bernie Sanders isn't self-financed, because he isn't rich (solidly middle-class, but not a millionaire). But he's also not beholden to large donors: His financing is almost entirely from people giving $30-50.
"How many capture his spontaneity?"
Oh, I can think of lots of candidates that jump before they look. Chris Christie, for instance, is very spontaneous, but I wouldn't consider that a good quality to have in a president.
7
I am perplexed by why the received wisdom is that if Trump were to get the nomination, the "lesser" Republican candidates would be sure to suffer defeat riding his coattails, and therefore the Party will never let this happen. From what I can tell, most solid-Red-State voters will pull the Republican lever regardless of who is running, and many will be galvanized by the opportunity to express their fear and hatred at the polls. The idea that sane people can take reassurance from the way elections have gone in the past offers cold comfort at best. If the past were a reliable predictor of the political future, Donald Trump's candidacy would be long over already. That is exactly the problem: the electorate in this country may have reached an unprecedented tipping-point level of stupidity.
19
There is no way the GOP will let him be their Presidential candidate since it almost certainly assures electoral doom for them in almost all 50 states. However, I do see him running as an Independent candidate as his ego will never let him retire to the sidelines humbly.
10
If Republican establishment (RNC) could 'manage' to hook Gore out of 2000 election against Bush in Florida -- organizing media, protesters, state officials and Supreme Court to do so -- it can certainly 'manage' to hook Trump and Carson (and Cruz?) out of their own Republican primary. In the meantime, Trump-Carson-Cruz serve the useful purpose to deflect all media examination (and criticism) away from Bush, Kasich and (VP candidate) Rubio -- Trump-Carson-Cruz are only Trojan (stalking) Horses to sneak 'real' (establishment) Republican candidates under the critical radar and keep their skirts clean for the general election to come. Trump-Carson-Cruz just a magician's trick to say "Hey -- look over here!" to divert audience as they pull real candidates out of the hat with other hand (and to shield them from everyone's further inspection).
6
The issue is not whether the Republican Party will nominate Trump or whether Clinton will win the general election. The issue is what conservatives will do after Clinton is inaugurated. Pollsters and sociologists have opined that Trump supporters and the rest of those who oppose big government have their backs to their economic wall.
If the analyses are correct, how far can those who cling to their guns, religion and their threadbare bank accounts be ignored before they . . . do what?
If the analyses are correct, how far can those who cling to their guns, religion and their threadbare bank accounts be ignored before they . . . do what?
15
1: PLEASE, NY Times, give it a rest - Trump is only this newsworthy in his own mind.
2: "President Trump's" State of the Union speech in its entirety: "I'm the greatest president America ever had, and the country is doing great. Don't worry about anything as long as I'm in charge. Good night."
2: "President Trump's" State of the Union speech in its entirety: "I'm the greatest president America ever had, and the country is doing great. Don't worry about anything as long as I'm in charge. Good night."
9
Trump is the front runner now. If not Trump, then who? I am not a student of horse racing, but even the occasional observer like me who only watches the Kentucky Derby knows that the horse that breaks out of the gate first is not necessarily going to win the race. The longer the race, the horse with speed and endurance has a better chance to win than the early pace setter that starts very fast but has no endurance. But, some horses do go wire to wire.
What has happened in this race, from my perspective, is that most of the "horses" have tried to keep up with Trump. Even the "establishment" candidates have pulled hard to the right to keep in the race. Romney referred to himself as a "severe conservative" to persuade the base of the Republican party that he was not a moderate. Cruz and Rubio were already severe conservatives who have now become super-severe conservatives. Why should a Trump supporter leave Trump for one of these more typical candidates when they are all saying the same thing? No one will out-Trump Trump. Unless a candidate emerges as the anti-Trump and still appeals to the far right wing of the party, Trump will become the nominee.
What has happened in this race, from my perspective, is that most of the "horses" have tried to keep up with Trump. Even the "establishment" candidates have pulled hard to the right to keep in the race. Romney referred to himself as a "severe conservative" to persuade the base of the Republican party that he was not a moderate. Cruz and Rubio were already severe conservatives who have now become super-severe conservatives. Why should a Trump supporter leave Trump for one of these more typical candidates when they are all saying the same thing? No one will out-Trump Trump. Unless a candidate emerges as the anti-Trump and still appeals to the far right wing of the party, Trump will become the nominee.
7
When I look at every single candidate in the race from both parties, I have to ask myself, "My, God, is this really the best we can do? If so, WHY?"
We have made the nomination process so horrific, painful and revolting (to both the candidates and the electorate) that no sane person would participate. These freak show candidates self-select. The system is designed to attract the very worst. To wit: the Donald, Ted Cruz, Rubio, Bush, Huckster, etc.
These clowns are not just scary as potential Presidents, they are scary just as average human beings. The only solace one can take is that only one of these clowns can occupy the Whitehouse at a time.
We seriously need to figure something out as a country. We need a better attraction and selection program to get genuinely competent, experienced leaders running for public office.
We have made the nomination process so horrific, painful and revolting (to both the candidates and the electorate) that no sane person would participate. These freak show candidates self-select. The system is designed to attract the very worst. To wit: the Donald, Ted Cruz, Rubio, Bush, Huckster, etc.
These clowns are not just scary as potential Presidents, they are scary just as average human beings. The only solace one can take is that only one of these clowns can occupy the Whitehouse at a time.
We seriously need to figure something out as a country. We need a better attraction and selection program to get genuinely competent, experienced leaders running for public office.
23
I am a lifelong Democrat but there is something enticing about Donald Trump. I am not sure why I feel this way, an unexpected emotional reaction. I am not sure if I could vote for him, but he is unlike any other Republican. He is a modern Andrew Jackson. I have an intuition that many others might support him in spite of his intemperate comments. He is the ultimate pragmatist. He says what he feels, but does what he must. He is mercurial, but honest and principled in a strange, almost antique manner. He is the reincarnation of a coal baron!.
15
@Frank Shifreen: "modern Andrew Jackson" and "reincarnation of a coal baron" are two EXCELLENT reasons to never vote for Trump. Please study American history more closely, and tell me if you'd really like to be an "average guy" living under the thumb of a Jackson or a coal baron.
As for your unexpected emotional reaction, I think people react to the fact that in a complex world, Trump offers a 3-year-old's view of life: Bad people are bad and you punish them; good people are nice. That does not indicate a capacity to cope with the world in which we actually exist. Do you feel comfortable having the USA being the laughing-stock of the entire world? - because that's what Prez Trump will get you!
As for your unexpected emotional reaction, I think people react to the fact that in a complex world, Trump offers a 3-year-old's view of life: Bad people are bad and you punish them; good people are nice. That does not indicate a capacity to cope with the world in which we actually exist. Do you feel comfortable having the USA being the laughing-stock of the entire world? - because that's what Prez Trump will get you!
16
You probably actually watched one of his speeches. Despite the stream of "intemperate" insults, he says a number of things a democrat could agree with
6
Could we please stop all the speculation and lame drama. Write about their positions, their record, their strengths and weaknesses. The press is supposed to help us make good decisions, not engage us in the incessant talk about polls. In case I missed it, election day is not for a while, and a lot could change.
17
Stop writing so much about Trump! That man cares only about himself and doesn't give two pennies about the American people.
18
If Trump isn't the front runner, than who is? He may win the nomination, he may not, but as of the best information today, he is the closest to a front runner than anyone else in the Republican field.
5
I don't understand the arguments along the lines of "Polls are misleading this early, so don't rely on polls. Trump cannot win because polls have the number of Republicans who will not vote for him as very high".
It seems to me the argument against Trump not winning boils down to "ignore everything that may show he may be winning because it's too early, but strongly consider the things which show that he may not be winning because..."
It seems to me the argument against Trump not winning boils down to "ignore everything that may show he may be winning because it's too early, but strongly consider the things which show that he may not be winning because..."
6
Trump has become that rare political animal who cannot be understood by the the usual metrics in politics. Will he or won't he be the Candidate. Whose decision will take precedence - the polls or the Party Establishment? If he does not get the nomination, he will stand as an independent or a Third Party Candidate. One thing is for sure though. Republicans will lose, in any scenario.
10
Given what we now know, no single candidate for the Republican nomination is likely to win (has a probability of winning greater than .5). The question is who has the highest probability. That person would be the "front-runner." This article claims Trump is not the front-runner. Okay, point taken. But then who is? Who, at this point, can be said to have a greater probability of winning the nomination than Trump? Rubio? Cruz? The piece seems to elide that question by conflating "front-runner," which is a positional concept, with likelihood of winning, which is a probabilistic concept.
2
With Republicans Nate says, "but look at all these negatives -- don't believe the polls!"
With Democrats Nate says, "All the polls say Bernie can't win, so ignore all the people who hate Hillary because polls don't lie!"
It's okay to scrutinize the makeup of samples in Republican polls, of course. But when Monmouth releases a poll where three-quarters of respondents are over 65 which shows Hillary with a sizable lead, well, that's Gospel, because it confirms the "inevitable!" narrative. Polls at this volatile stage can certainly be misleading -- but that only applies to candidates who *don't* have a crown on their head, obviously.
It gets harder and harder to take this stuff seriously.
With Democrats Nate says, "All the polls say Bernie can't win, so ignore all the people who hate Hillary because polls don't lie!"
It's okay to scrutinize the makeup of samples in Republican polls, of course. But when Monmouth releases a poll where three-quarters of respondents are over 65 which shows Hillary with a sizable lead, well, that's Gospel, because it confirms the "inevitable!" narrative. Polls at this volatile stage can certainly be misleading -- but that only applies to candidates who *don't* have a crown on their head, obviously.
It gets harder and harder to take this stuff seriously.
11
Well, he has a good track record.
1
I hope he wins and I thank him for calling political correctnesses bluff on Immigration and free markerteers and banksters bluff on China and walls street respectively. I thank him for calling all politicians bought, including Hilary.
THANKS DONALD.
And I hope you win the Republican nomination, and then we get Hilary, sigh, groan, as President.
THANKS DONALD.
And I hope you win the Republican nomination, and then we get Hilary, sigh, groan, as President.
9
These 12% calculations for Trump ignore history. No matter who the Republican candidate is he or she will get 45 % of the votes.
The Obama v Romney election is the one most similar to a Trump v Hillary election. A businessman vs a liberal. And that election ended up 47 to 51. That's how American elections are won, by small margins.
And let's not forget how the Romney campaign "rebooted" itself after having placated the right wing / religious wackos who control the Republican primaries to win the primary. I guarantee that Trump will reboot his campaign to appeal to the general election voters.
Hillary v Trump will be a close election.
The Obama v Romney election is the one most similar to a Trump v Hillary election. A businessman vs a liberal. And that election ended up 47 to 51. That's how American elections are won, by small margins.
And let's not forget how the Romney campaign "rebooted" itself after having placated the right wing / religious wackos who control the Republican primaries to win the primary. I guarantee that Trump will reboot his campaign to appeal to the general election voters.
Hillary v Trump will be a close election.
7
"Hillary v Trump will be a close election."
Bernie v Trump would not be close, according to current polling: Bernie wins in a landslide.
Bernie v Trump would not be close, according to current polling: Bernie wins in a landslide.
3
I think right now it's just 1 Trump and several main stream guys. Once it comes down to just Trump and one main stream guy, Trump will get a little bit more than he's got now but the 1 main stream guy will get the majority that's getting divided among the many main stream guys. So something in the neighborhood of Trump 40-45 and the main stream 55-60.
2
The entire Republican field is a disaster. Trump more than others harms our nation with the vitriol he spews, but the media deserves blame for giving him the attention it does.
11
As an independent, why I want to vote to Trump. First and foremost, I want the current establishment in both parties crumble into a dust. The options I have is either Trump or Sanders. Secondly, I don't believe in Trump's current statements, because they are designed to win the Republican nomination. His statements in the general election will be more moderate and will champion middle class. Thirdly, I believe Trump can get the things done because he can buy the required votes in the senate and the house to pass his bills. Those votes not that expensive and probably pocket change for Trump. Finally, I do not believe In Hillary Clinton, because she would not care what she said during the election once got elected. Neither Sanders nor Clinton can push their agenda in a divided congress. Therefore, Trump is the only hope to make a soup out of the establishment.
11
I think your reasoning is faulty. First of all, Trump has gained his followers by taking outrageous positions. If he got more moderate, he'd lose his identity as an outlier and lose the election. Secondly, how exactly would he "buy" Congressional votes? The government isn't Las Vegas. If he has to compromise to get them, he won't, and in general would be totally over his head with the complexity of most of the situations he'd have to handle. That could lead to dangerous actions like hastily sending in ground troops or even using nuclear weapons. A President has to be level-headed, and Trump is hot-headed. In addition, Trump makes a lot of his living through gambling casinos -- and do you think he's going to live just on a President's salary? No way is he giving up the casinos -- he'd probably put them in the name of his wife or daughter or someone else close and so be able to get the income. Overall, not someone I want for President.
If you want change, let's work to get a lot of Congress defeated -- that is the scourge that is holding up progress.
If you want change, let's work to get a lot of Congress defeated -- that is the scourge that is holding up progress.
9
Trump will not win but it's not because he is unqualified, nor because he is a blatant demagogue to a large minority of the Republican Party who are unsophisticated about government and foreign policy, nor because he is deliberately insulting all the groups with which the Republicans are already on poor terms, but because he is by temperament disinclined to play nice with the leadership of the Republican Party, who to avoid having to deal he must win enough delegates to clinch the nomination on the first ballot at the Republican Convention. If he had the ability to charm, as did Ronald Reagan, he just might be the nominee. Reagan was a showman like Trump, who consistently presented a good show that was popularly appealing but consisted of a lot of not well considered nor substantiated by experience notions which proved to be mostly not practical, but reflected a good grasp of his audience's aspirations and apprehensions.
6
I'm not interested in who the Republican nominee will be; my real fear is that Hillary will be the Democratic choice. Whoever her opponent is, her tepid, toothless, insincere prescriptions will sound like divinely inspired wisdom in comparison, subjecting the country to another four to eight year death march. Bernie Sanders has all the chutzpah of Trump, plus one additional asset: he's almost pathologically honest.
20
You should take a closer look at Hillary's history and record. Sure, she's a politician, a consummate one. What else do you want in a president? There are lots of things I don't like in her positions, but you won't find any world leader who doesn't have to live with those.
Yes, I love Bernie, and prefer him, but she's actually quite solid. Give her an honest look please.
Yes, I love Bernie, and prefer him, but she's actually quite solid. Give her an honest look please.
6
I get palpitations at the mere mention of Trump threading the needle. With their overly long primary process and huge field of candidates the Republicans have finally outdone the Democrats in the self destruction department. Of course wheeling out Hillary again and offering her to a country tired of her is pretty self-destructive also.
19
I have a secret: the other Republicans scare me more than Trump does, so Trump is my favorite republicans. The idea of a right wing Republicans (like Cruz), plus a right wing Congress and Senate scares me a lot, and I think it could truly damage out country for years
Reasons to prefer Trump over other Republicans:
His platform is more liberal.
He is not particularly religious, he is socially liberal and has no hangups about sexuality or sexual freedom of expression.
I like his focus on 'let's get a good deal" in foreign policy
He endorsed single payer in the past.
Many Repubs dislike and say they will never vote for him because he is liberal, not because he is racist
Reasons to not dislike him as much as most here do:
He's been saying a lot of horrible things, but most here agree, the other Republicans feel the same way.
He insults everyone (white POW's, ugly women, Muslims, right wing Christians ...) Who hasn't he insulted?
I want a Democrat to win, but I am afraid we won't win.
Trump's WYSIWYG attitude just means that he doesn't hide what all the other Republicans feel but try to hide. But why vote for someone whose platform is worse, just because they whisper the things Trump says out loud?
Reasons to prefer Trump over other Republicans:
His platform is more liberal.
He is not particularly religious, he is socially liberal and has no hangups about sexuality or sexual freedom of expression.
I like his focus on 'let's get a good deal" in foreign policy
He endorsed single payer in the past.
Many Repubs dislike and say they will never vote for him because he is liberal, not because he is racist
Reasons to not dislike him as much as most here do:
He's been saying a lot of horrible things, but most here agree, the other Republicans feel the same way.
He insults everyone (white POW's, ugly women, Muslims, right wing Christians ...) Who hasn't he insulted?
I want a Democrat to win, but I am afraid we won't win.
Trump's WYSIWYG attitude just means that he doesn't hide what all the other Republicans feel but try to hide. But why vote for someone whose platform is worse, just because they whisper the things Trump says out loud?
20
I want to know if what I secretly think but would never tell my friends is wrong, can people tell me? Because I am too embarrassed to say it to people I know, I don't get feedback
agree with you 100%, I voted for obama 2x, boy was that a mistake.
at least if McCain / Palin had been elected, the liberal electorate would have gotten off their butts and DONE SOMETHING about the Wall Sty crooks.
instead we waited for obama and holder to go after them, crickets ensued...
at least if McCain / Palin had been elected, the liberal electorate would have gotten off their butts and DONE SOMETHING about the Wall Sty crooks.
instead we waited for obama and holder to go after them, crickets ensued...
5
The scary part is that Will Farrell's reborn George W Bush impression almost made me miss him! Wow, the joke that W could win again was funny because it hit way too close to home.
4
What is really sad about the whole Trump fever thing is that deep down inside I believe that Trump is laughing at his supporters. He knows what he is telling them is pure fantasy.
17
Yes, absolutely. Trump is about Trump Enterprises (just as Carson is in it for his book sales and speaking gigs), and not about the USofA. Trump is using this campaign (if one can even call it that where he is concerned) to raise his public profile for his business ventures, and, along the way, grind a few public axes as he chooses and which evidently delight him to do so. That's ALL there is to Trump. If he was actually handed the nomination, he would laugh it off and walk away. And say "Ya fired!"
8
Seems like they are all competing for about 20-25% of the overall vote but somehow, like this article, they get about 90% of the media coverage. What' missing from this picture?
6
When you consider that the last victors in Iowa were Santorum and Huckabee, I don't put much stock in who wins there in the Republican caucus.
Trump will go on to win the most GOP delegates, if not an actual majority. The fact is, the very thing that seems to be undermining the ability of the GOP "establishment" candidates from beating Trump is, Citizens United. With Citizens United, a candidate does not need to raise that much money for his own campaign. He needs to pay travel expenses, hotel rooms, and other such expenses. But, the SuperPacs will do the heavy lifting on campaign ads.
All of the "establishment" candidates seem to have enough money to cover their travel and other personal expenses. So, there is no particular financial pressure on them to drop out. As a result, the anti-Trump vote remains unconsolidated, and probably will remain so.
The chickens have come home to roost for the Republicans. They welcomed the Tea Party as a force to bolster the Republican base. Only thing is, they never were able to deliver (probably never intended to deliver) on the expectations of the Tea Party voter.
After constantly characterizing Obama as weak and ineffectual, the Republicans created a demand in their party for a Superman. Who turned out to be Donald Trump. And to the GOP Establishment, the Superman who showed up is their Frankenstein's monster, beyond their control.
Trump will go on to win the most GOP delegates, if not an actual majority. The fact is, the very thing that seems to be undermining the ability of the GOP "establishment" candidates from beating Trump is, Citizens United. With Citizens United, a candidate does not need to raise that much money for his own campaign. He needs to pay travel expenses, hotel rooms, and other such expenses. But, the SuperPacs will do the heavy lifting on campaign ads.
All of the "establishment" candidates seem to have enough money to cover their travel and other personal expenses. So, there is no particular financial pressure on them to drop out. As a result, the anti-Trump vote remains unconsolidated, and probably will remain so.
The chickens have come home to roost for the Republicans. They welcomed the Tea Party as a force to bolster the Republican base. Only thing is, they never were able to deliver (probably never intended to deliver) on the expectations of the Tea Party voter.
After constantly characterizing Obama as weak and ineffectual, the Republicans created a demand in their party for a Superman. Who turned out to be Donald Trump. And to the GOP Establishment, the Superman who showed up is their Frankenstein's monster, beyond their control.
10
Trump voters have basically decided, "hey, let's just roll the dice. He can't be worse than the rest." It's so sad that we've come to place where about a third of the population would seriously consider an arrogant real estate developer for President. It's more of an indictment against the politicians than the people.
8
and gambling promoter. Wiggled away from four bankruptcies. Scams for a living. Ugly too, inside and out.
2
The interesting question is not whether Trump will win the Republican nomination -- barring a major unforced error (not exactly unlikely for the Donald), he's very likely to win.
The interesting question is whether he will win the general against the establishment with all its warts, otherwise known as Hillary.
I can see it going either way. What's really on trial here is the public's confidence in the elite establishment. It's very low, but whether enough of the public will defy that establishment so wholly as in the person of Trump, I just don't know.
The interesting question is whether he will win the general against the establishment with all its warts, otherwise known as Hillary.
I can see it going either way. What's really on trial here is the public's confidence in the elite establishment. It's very low, but whether enough of the public will defy that establishment so wholly as in the person of Trump, I just don't know.
11
I'd have to disagree. The only thing on trial here, with Trump, is whether the American people have any sense or decency. I wouldn't go much beyond that. Though I hesitate to admit that such a "trial" causes me to fear for our country.
7
I think it was Mark Twain who said, "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics." Polls only reflect a small amount of voters. I don't trust them. Which one is the lesser of two evils, Trump or Cruz? Both want to send troops to take on Isis, but they are cowards. Neither one served. I bring this up because the bottom line is that those who support Trump now, might and probably will change their minds when they go to vote. Trump would make a great stand up comic, but as a potential president he's a joke. His solutions are absurd and not practical. Of course, I plan to vote for Hillary. But I wish Kerry were running. He has the experience and toughness to do the job.
15
All I can ask is, please will you stop the never ending Trump vitriol?
As Nate points out, his previous article predicting an early demise for Trump was totally wrong. Ultimately, it was actually a totally unhelpful analysis which had nothing to do with what really happened. Wouldn't you quit after that, instead of writing this nonsense saying that Trump could win but maybe he won't win?
No, because the Times insists on a constant stream of glib criticism of Donald Trump. I can't help but remark because every time it is so irritating.
As Nate points out, his previous article predicting an early demise for Trump was totally wrong. Ultimately, it was actually a totally unhelpful analysis which had nothing to do with what really happened. Wouldn't you quit after that, instead of writing this nonsense saying that Trump could win but maybe he won't win?
No, because the Times insists on a constant stream of glib criticism of Donald Trump. I can't help but remark because every time it is so irritating.
11
Can't help it? Nonsense.
5
yes, trump and his constant glib criticism of everyone opposing him
4
There is no reason to avoid criticizing Trump, for he is a dangerous ideologue whose deranged notions go directly against what this nation stands for.
2
Honestly, Trump is ugly inside and out, but Cruz is even more repellent.
Vote, people vote!
None of these guys is anything but dangerously out of touch with the best in humanity and the best for us all. Demagogues have riddled our history with tragedy. Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it, and the climate can't wait, so no matter which bias wins, it will be worse than before this time.
Vote, people vote!
None of these guys is anything but dangerously out of touch with the best in humanity and the best for us all. Demagogues have riddled our history with tragedy. Those who forget history are doomed to repeat it, and the climate can't wait, so no matter which bias wins, it will be worse than before this time.
18
Please consider this notion:
President Trump might create so much blowback that good policies prevail.
President Trump might create so much blowback that good policies prevail.
3
People, media included, confuse polling with reality. Questions of 1800 Americans (none of whom are using a cell phone) do not really tell you much. In Trump's case it's a measure of his celebrity and not much else.
10
Funny how the elites want Rubio when they see they can't get JEB?
8
The problem for the GOP this year is that they have an extraordinarily weak field of candidates, along with one carnival barker who has been entertaining voters by insulting the others and showing how unacceptable they all are. Even a strong candidate would have trouble looking good in this carnival sideshow. It’s a scorched earth campaign that may leave nothing but ashes.
16
Trump will not win the Presidency. If you honestly think he will, then you are simply wrong, period, and you should find a new occupation that does not involve political analysis.
9
Vast majority of White America will not vote for Hillary. So Trump it is.
6
Dear WessonSmith,
Where do you get that notion from? The majority of white America voted for her husband, and her political policies are not different from his. White America isn't as racist and moronic as you might think, they definitely won't support Trump in the majority.
Where do you get that notion from? The majority of white America voted for her husband, and her political policies are not different from his. White America isn't as racist and moronic as you might think, they definitely won't support Trump in the majority.
2
This is not how the United States should choose a president.
12
Will, your recommendations as to how we choose a president would be most welcome.
2
The key with Donaldo is seeing what he does if he loses Iowa, New Hampshire or both. He's not used to being told no or losing in general. And no amount of spin will keep the media and the establishment from rubbing a loss in his face nor will primary voters be happy to hear they are stupid if he loses. The question has always been what happens in those early primary states and how Donaldo comes out of it. And I believe he will lose one or both states.
6
Yes, he has never been elected to any office.
2
He hasn't been running campaign ads. Maybe if he suffered losses, he might start. Or maybe he would just drop out, and say thanks for the memories.
1
"On the radio: For those who want to focus on what the candidates are saying without all of the theatrics, Salem Radio Network will air the debate live through its broadcast radio stations." Remember: those who listened on radio thought Nixon had won the debate over Kennedy.
1
Discussions like this prove that we need a more fair election system. The current one takes our nationwide majority of Democrats and produces a Congress full of Republicans. Ever since California ended party primaries and began redistricting by nonpartisan judges, no Republican has been elected to statewide office. There is one big primary and the top two become the general election candidates, whatever their party. And the party in power no longer gets to draw districts that keep it in power.
Redistricting is at the heart of it, and pizza-slice districts with both red and blue voters in each slice are the key. The blue cities must be mixed with the red countryside to maximize competitive elections, as the Founders intended.
The other big step is to end huge inheritances. They lead to big bribes, and Thomas Jefferson outlawed the worst of them. That is why the eldest male child no longer inherits everything.
To see other great ideas go to YouTube and watch Comedy Party Platform (2 min 9 sec). Then send a buck to Bernie Sanders and invite me to speak to your group. Get your free printed copy of the Platform at alibris.com. Thanks.
Redistricting is at the heart of it, and pizza-slice districts with both red and blue voters in each slice are the key. The blue cities must be mixed with the red countryside to maximize competitive elections, as the Founders intended.
The other big step is to end huge inheritances. They lead to big bribes, and Thomas Jefferson outlawed the worst of them. That is why the eldest male child no longer inherits everything.
To see other great ideas go to YouTube and watch Comedy Party Platform (2 min 9 sec). Then send a buck to Bernie Sanders and invite me to speak to your group. Get your free printed copy of the Platform at alibris.com. Thanks.
10
I agree with everything here - but this election feels different. For the past two elections Republican voters have complained about settling for someone not as conservative as they'd like, but who may be more electable - only to lose. Maybe this is the revenge of talk radio and Fox news election, where Republican voters finally pick the candidate that most perfectly matches everything they've been seeing and hearing on conservative media. Whether this will be a winning strategy remains to be seen. Trump may well prove us all wrong.
12
He has my vote!
12
There goes Silicon Valley!
5
Trump says you shouldn't be able to vote and should have to register in order to even stay in the country. You understand that, right?
7
While Trump proposes to ban Muslims until the government can get a handle on the problem of terrorism, and Muslims begin to feel unwelcome in the U.S., many are beginning to wonder who is the Muslim man or woman known around the world as a messenger of peace? Does one exist?
Catholicism has the Pope. Tibetan Buddhists have the Dali Lama.
Who is the messenger of peace for Islam, the one person who has the authority to condemn the Islamic state and criticize terrorist attacks like the ones most recently in Paris and California?
If a living, internationally recognized Islamic messenger of peace exists, why don't we hear from this person more often?
An authoritative voice from the Muslim world who can condemn the violence of the Islamic state, might go a long way toward defusing the tension domestically and help undermine those politicians who seek to exploit the fear of Muslims here and abroad.
Catholicism has the Pope. Tibetan Buddhists have the Dali Lama.
Who is the messenger of peace for Islam, the one person who has the authority to condemn the Islamic state and criticize terrorist attacks like the ones most recently in Paris and California?
If a living, internationally recognized Islamic messenger of peace exists, why don't we hear from this person more often?
An authoritative voice from the Muslim world who can condemn the violence of the Islamic state, might go a long way toward defusing the tension domestically and help undermine those politicians who seek to exploit the fear of Muslims here and abroad.
13
The media doesn't cover those people because it doesn't fit the marketing strategy and narrative. Just like they don't cover Bernie Sanders..
7
Islam is decentralized. There is no ultimate leader or institutional rule-making body. Ergo, it is subject to local, and so tribal/geographic/political considerations and biases. A radically crazy imam there can have as large a following as a cosmopolitan and peace-loving imam here. And all varieties in between. In this regard imams are subject to all of the temptations that any power-seeking petty tyrant might have. There is nobody to check him. (Certainly not any women.) • In the same way we see the silly Shia-Sunni split based on 1300+year dispute of who was going to be the next boss after Muhammed died. Each side considers the other apostates due to a family argument that was unable to be settled in, say, 10 or 15 years.
13
Just one point, Peter. Catholicism may have the pope, but the pope doesn't have the large, loud, and ultra-conservative, ultra judgmental fundmentalist evangelical crowd driving the Republican Party's clown-mobile. They have little more use for the pope than do the black clad masked men of the Middle East. ISIS and these folks are not that far apart in the field of religion, differing mainly in their approach to "disciplining" unbelievers and the insufficiently observant/subservient.
6
All this "he can't win" rhetoric aimed at Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders makes me think, more and more, that it will be Trump vs. Sanders in the general election.
24
@WalterZ: Yeh, something about that rings true, doesn't it? Surprise is the name of the political game. Heck. Obama was never cast as a presidential candidate at first, maybe a VP some day. What about Palin? Woulda thought McCain would think it? Both Dubya and Reagan were big surprises.
Brace yourself for surprise folks. I guess that goes for you too Mr. Cohn.
Brace yourself for surprise folks. I guess that goes for you too Mr. Cohn.
1
that would be awesome!
2
That would be a very interesting election and really define where people side in our country-- the mega businessman vs the statist.
Can Trump pivot?
This is the question no-one is asking; but it is wrong to dismiss this possibility. His record is far more moderate than any of his anti-establishment rivals, he was once a Democrat, and he's even supported Universal Health Care.
Everyone knows you win the primary by running to the base and the general election by running to the center. Could trump pivot toward the center? You could argue that he can't, because that is not who he is, that he can't because his identity is already established with high negatives, or that he can't because he doesn't have the skill. I think its too early to tell. He's obviously skillful, many voters have heard of him without hearing him speak directly, and he may be more 'mutable' than he seems. He skillfully exploits the difference between what the electorate think and what the elite believe. As the 'fractured field' consolidates I expect him to move from the right toward the center.
This is the question no-one is asking; but it is wrong to dismiss this possibility. His record is far more moderate than any of his anti-establishment rivals, he was once a Democrat, and he's even supported Universal Health Care.
Everyone knows you win the primary by running to the base and the general election by running to the center. Could trump pivot toward the center? You could argue that he can't, because that is not who he is, that he can't because his identity is already established with high negatives, or that he can't because he doesn't have the skill. I think its too early to tell. He's obviously skillful, many voters have heard of him without hearing him speak directly, and he may be more 'mutable' than he seems. He skillfully exploits the difference between what the electorate think and what the elite believe. As the 'fractured field' consolidates I expect him to move from the right toward the center.
8
The polls state Trump is the frontrunner AND the polls mean nothing at this point. Both statements are true. That's all. Nothing more.
11
"Out of an abundance of caution".
If Trump had used the common phrase when referring to his proposal to stop Muslims from entering the country, AND if the media hadn't deliberately omitted the second half of his sentence - "until Congress figures out what's going on" - he wouldn't have sounded nearly so radical or extremist as the media portrays. That phrase is commonly used to excuse what would ordinarily be seen as extreme measures. Amateur politician Trump just needs to learn the lingo.
Nevertheless, the public heard exactly what Trump was saying and what the media omitted, which only served do prove bias, reinforcing distrust of the 'lamestream' media and creating more support for Trump. The public also notices the same bias when the spotlight stays focused on Hillary and a wet blanket and blackout curtain in thrown over Bernie Sanders' candidacy. Will the blackout succeed in killing Sanders' campaign? Only if we let it.
I'm sure we'll see more product placement ads, I mean articles, about the candidates as time and money flows towards the election. Look for the big players to hold their money back waiting for sideshow to end and the pack to thin out, then putting big money on both Rubio and Clinton, hedging their bets as usual by backing the two best warmongering corporate stooges.
Feel the Bern!
If Trump had used the common phrase when referring to his proposal to stop Muslims from entering the country, AND if the media hadn't deliberately omitted the second half of his sentence - "until Congress figures out what's going on" - he wouldn't have sounded nearly so radical or extremist as the media portrays. That phrase is commonly used to excuse what would ordinarily be seen as extreme measures. Amateur politician Trump just needs to learn the lingo.
Nevertheless, the public heard exactly what Trump was saying and what the media omitted, which only served do prove bias, reinforcing distrust of the 'lamestream' media and creating more support for Trump. The public also notices the same bias when the spotlight stays focused on Hillary and a wet blanket and blackout curtain in thrown over Bernie Sanders' candidacy. Will the blackout succeed in killing Sanders' campaign? Only if we let it.
I'm sure we'll see more product placement ads, I mean articles, about the candidates as time and money flows towards the election. Look for the big players to hold their money back waiting for sideshow to end and the pack to thin out, then putting big money on both Rubio and Clinton, hedging their bets as usual by backing the two best warmongering corporate stooges.
Feel the Bern!
21
The MSM bias against Trump? No way.
2
Sarcasm! Great!
1
Excellent piece, Mr. Cohn. The flip side of Trump not winning is all the hype around Bernie Sanders winning. While undeniably a decent man, he has no chance whatsoever of winning the election.
4
Bernie Sanders has a long track record of working in government as a mayor, congressman, and senator. He is not a billionaire reality TV star who can say anything, the more outrageous the better, to get attention. I am waiting for the day when he will actually get a chance to speak to the concerns of the American people, that the economy is rigged by and for the 1%. The Democratic party is complicit in keeping him from making his case, by scheduling a debate for the Saturday night before Christmas -- when only dedicated political junkies will be watching.
If people listen to what Bernie Sanders has to say, he will have a good chance of winning the election. And he is reasonable enough to recognize that to run as an independent would be to hand the election to the Republicans.
If people listen to what Bernie Sanders has to say, he will have a good chance of winning the election. And he is reasonable enough to recognize that to run as an independent would be to hand the election to the Republicans.
12
What hype? Nobody in the media is covering his campaign.
No chance of winning? He's ahead of every Repub in head to head polls over the past few months, and in some, he polls better than Clinton in the general.
No chance of winning? He's ahead of every Repub in head to head polls over the past few months, and in some, he polls better than Clinton in the general.
10
Pete, John, my comment was not about what a good man Bernie Sanders is. He is. His chances of winning the election are slim to none, and for the reasons you mention. Still, no amount of wishful thinking will change the facts on the ground.
2
Mr. Cohn has omitted an important factor: Donald Trump is a reality TV star. None of the comparisons Mr. Cohn makes have that characteristic. Certainly not Howard Dean. In this respect, Trump is lightening compared to everyone else's low-wattage light bulb. Looking back in time, the only other candidate I can think of with Trump's celebrity appeal is Ronald Reagan.
12
If Trump wins I will be blaming the media for their crack-like addiction to him. You people know what you are doing and how bad he is for this country but you just can't help keep giving him all the free advertising because in turn you get money from advertisers who can't wait to be in the next colum to his latest outrage. It is a sick cycle.
27
It would not surprise me if the GOP base votes Trump in as their nominee. After all, we were stupid enough to re-elect Bush Jr. with all the evidence in the world he was a lousy president- the worst in modern history.
Unless the average voter got an increase in their collective IQs since then, I wouldn't count Trump out- or Cruz or Rubio or Carson. They're all cut from the same, insane cloth. I feel very burdened by stupid voters. It won't make me feel any better when the oceans are rising and Wall St. is flooded out along with Miami- it won't make me feel better to say I told you so to the GOP rabid right.
Unless the average voter got an increase in their collective IQs since then, I wouldn't count Trump out- or Cruz or Rubio or Carson. They're all cut from the same, insane cloth. I feel very burdened by stupid voters. It won't make me feel any better when the oceans are rising and Wall St. is flooded out along with Miami- it won't make me feel better to say I told you so to the GOP rabid right.
18
I now know beyond a shadow of doubt that I am living in the America of the movie "Idiocracy".
13
Trump is the GOP front runner. The polls are pretty clear about this.
I think it is funny the mainstream media has trouble accepting Trump as the leading Republican candidate. Democracy can be a messy business and this is a great example of that..
I think it is funny the mainstream media has trouble accepting Trump as the leading Republican candidate. Democracy can be a messy business and this is a great example of that..
10
Can we really do worse than what is going on in Washington? I am willing to give it a try and vote for Trump. He will shake things up to shame the politicians into doing something good for my country.
4
Can we really do worse? Oh yes. Much worse.
3
How can you think that, LBP, when absolutely nothing good has come out of his very large mouth in months of campaigning?
2
The usual Republican campaign practice has been to have the leaders campaign using subtle dog whistle talking points which have previously been well prepared by low level hate mongers. Not this time.
First, because of the amplification of rage against the machine by social media, and the fact that President Obama has grown stronger and more assertive in his second term while Republican congressional leaders have become more impotent, the unhappiness with the establishment and the desire to stiff them is much stronger.
Second, the views of rank-and-file Republicans on defining issues like immigration have become more consistently extreme, a majority now agree with virtually every element of Trump’s program, including expelling all illegal immigrants.
Third, this time there are multiple establishment candidates with no frontrunner, including Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, and Chris Christie. And each has independent financing, with enough backing from wealthy patrons to stay in the race for a long time, splitting the establishment-oriented vote.
Fourth, Donald Trump, a far more savvy candidate than, say, Herman Cain, has benefits from the anger in the conservative and Republican base electorate by running a pugnacious, in-your-face, I-am not-anything-like-these-other-clowns race.
The only way Donald Trump loses the nomination is by commiting a prosecutable hate crime on the national stage before the primary.
First, because of the amplification of rage against the machine by social media, and the fact that President Obama has grown stronger and more assertive in his second term while Republican congressional leaders have become more impotent, the unhappiness with the establishment and the desire to stiff them is much stronger.
Second, the views of rank-and-file Republicans on defining issues like immigration have become more consistently extreme, a majority now agree with virtually every element of Trump’s program, including expelling all illegal immigrants.
Third, this time there are multiple establishment candidates with no frontrunner, including Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, John Kasich, and Chris Christie. And each has independent financing, with enough backing from wealthy patrons to stay in the race for a long time, splitting the establishment-oriented vote.
Fourth, Donald Trump, a far more savvy candidate than, say, Herman Cain, has benefits from the anger in the conservative and Republican base electorate by running a pugnacious, in-your-face, I-am not-anything-like-these-other-clowns race.
The only way Donald Trump loses the nomination is by commiting a prosecutable hate crime on the national stage before the primary.
10
St. Reagan--wrapped in a very genial cloak--did very bad things and had very bad policies. You can thank him for the creation of the Taliban.
Trump is a not-so-foolish person wrapped in a bombastic sparkle suit. He won*t have a hot hand on the trigger finger.
It stuns me that so many people hurl the fascist epithet at Trump, of all candidates. Cruz is your new Father Coughlin; Rubio is a jerk; Jeb is--God help us--even more clueless than W.; Carson is a lunatic; the contrast with all other Republicans running, including those already mentioned, makes Rand Paul look like a seasoned statesman.
And Hillary makes many of us hunt fruitlessly for a stronger word than *venality* to describe someone dazzling in the nakedness of her greed.
No--Trump is not the worst face America could put forward. She is.
Trump is a not-so-foolish person wrapped in a bombastic sparkle suit. He won*t have a hot hand on the trigger finger.
It stuns me that so many people hurl the fascist epithet at Trump, of all candidates. Cruz is your new Father Coughlin; Rubio is a jerk; Jeb is--God help us--even more clueless than W.; Carson is a lunatic; the contrast with all other Republicans running, including those already mentioned, makes Rand Paul look like a seasoned statesman.
And Hillary makes many of us hunt fruitlessly for a stronger word than *venality* to describe someone dazzling in the nakedness of her greed.
No--Trump is not the worst face America could put forward. She is.
11
Trump wins the nomination easily.
Trump is 33%, Cruz is 17% and Carson is 11%. That puts the crazy vote at 61%. Is Rubio or Bush going to beat that?
Trump is 33%, Cruz is 17% and Carson is 11%. That puts the crazy vote at 61%. Is Rubio or Bush going to beat that?
7
Wouldn't it be great if Jeb Bush won the nomination through a brokered convention?
1
Jeff, You are right! Not that I believe this is great but I have been convinced of his scenario from the beginning. All else is a game and entertainment for the people.
2
I don't see how the nation that elected Obama twice could possibly elect Donald Trump. Iowa and New Hampshire Republicans do not even come close to representing the rest of the country.
15
Insurance cost for our small business has gone way up with higher deductibles for everyone. We provide insurance to adults until they are 26. We are not out of the ME and the fight is now coming onshore. Low wage jobs are created but not jobs that can support a middle class. We give benefits to illegal immigrants buy votes from their relatives and to encourage more to come. How can it be worse? Give Trump a try and then maybe the politicians will start to do something meaningful.
Trump is a reaction to twice Bush and twice Obama for embracing Bush policy with relish.
Same same = fed up and drastic correction.
Same same = fed up and drastic correction.
2
The title of this article is so typical of the Times. The plant the seed and watch it grow theory is something it does often.
I believe in a country where housewives of various counties are well known to millions and a family whose love affair with the letter K and all things materialistic are examples of the intelligence and taste of the American people, this man could really win.
Ask a person under thirty who Ted Cruz is and then ask who Kylie Kardashian is and I guarantee the majority will know the latter.
Donald Trump has tapped into the reality show that is the USA. Fanned by the media and fawned over by the public, he could and, I believe, will win.
I haven't even touched upon the simmering racism that is almost at the boiling point since the election of a black man to the White House.
Am I cynical? You bet. Am I realistic? Ditto that.
I remember something my father said, may he rest in peace. And I quote: No one ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American people.
This one is for you, Dad.
I believe in a country where housewives of various counties are well known to millions and a family whose love affair with the letter K and all things materialistic are examples of the intelligence and taste of the American people, this man could really win.
Ask a person under thirty who Ted Cruz is and then ask who Kylie Kardashian is and I guarantee the majority will know the latter.
Donald Trump has tapped into the reality show that is the USA. Fanned by the media and fawned over by the public, he could and, I believe, will win.
I haven't even touched upon the simmering racism that is almost at the boiling point since the election of a black man to the White House.
Am I cynical? You bet. Am I realistic? Ditto that.
I remember something my father said, may he rest in peace. And I quote: No one ever went broke underestimating the taste of the American people.
This one is for you, Dad.
16
Here is H.L. Mencken's original quote:
“No one in this world, so far as I know — and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me — has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.”
“No one in this world, so far as I know — and I have searched the records for years, and employed agents to help me — has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby.”
8
What a tremendously sad state of affairs when someone as conceited, belligerent, petulant and consistently untruthful as Trump is in the lead. What is wrong with people in this country? Pathetic.
11
Yes, but all of those others didn't have Trump's money. He hasn't even really begun to spend big on advertising yet, and he has the money and the supporters to pull together a massive ground game in state after state. He is his own worst enemy, and if he is undone then he will do it to himself.
4
Good point and I just wanted to say hi to a distant relative. Cheers, cousin Stackhouse :)
2
The comments here seem full of Democrats' vitriol towards Trump. But these are not the ones who vote in the primaries. I want to hear from the GOPers and Independents who do. They're the ones who put Reagan and Bush in office. In the last decade I have become painfully aware of how many low income folks in particular proudly say they're GOP, almost in a declaration of independence from being controlled by the Left, and vote for Republicans of Reagan's and Bush's stripes. I think it's an Everyman, you-don't-have-to-be-smart-just-have-downhomey-ways-just-like-me appeal.
8
I don't know why anyone refers to Donald Trump as a demagogue. He's a joke, playing people like a fiddle because it's fun for him. If he's actually elected, he's not going to actually do any of the things he's promising Tea Partiers and the other angry hordes. Because deep down, Donald Trump wants to be loved (not to mention he has businesses to run and doesn't want to ruin the livelihoods and the futures of his children, all of whom work for him). He wants to continue to hobnob with the global rich and famous, not hang out with some guy in rural Georgia or eastern Montana going on and on about how President Obama and Muslims are ruining his life.
If by some miracle Trump does make it to the White House, he's immediately going to proclaim, 'Suckers! You voted for me, you can't take it back, and I'll do what I want.' What he wants is to make himself wealthier. The Donald really isn't that rich anymore, which his supporters conveniently ignore - and getting really rich again can't be accomplished by alienating wealthy business people in this country and other countries where he has business interests or hopes to have them in the future. He likely figures that even if he accomplishes absolutely nothing as a U.S. president, being an ex-president will be good for business.
Trump is using these people, and he's a smart enough guy to know they'll never catch on until it's too late.
If by some miracle Trump does make it to the White House, he's immediately going to proclaim, 'Suckers! You voted for me, you can't take it back, and I'll do what I want.' What he wants is to make himself wealthier. The Donald really isn't that rich anymore, which his supporters conveniently ignore - and getting really rich again can't be accomplished by alienating wealthy business people in this country and other countries where he has business interests or hopes to have them in the future. He likely figures that even if he accomplishes absolutely nothing as a U.S. president, being an ex-president will be good for business.
Trump is using these people, and he's a smart enough guy to know they'll never catch on until it's too late.
14
Sometimes I think Trump is just playing everyone and along the way, lo and behold, he found a faithful following. He has angered so many groups of people with his hate speech, he probably figured he wouldn't last this long. He is bad for the country and a cancer on our good, kind, American citizens image. Who needs terrorists when you have Trump and friends?
3
Rather than a politician, Trump is is a self-promoting huckster in the fashion of P.T. Barnam. Like Barnam hawking his enterprise, Trump is a purveyor of illusion. Barnam's illusions had to do with smoke, mirrors, tricks other forms of diversion. Trump's illusion is himself--a blustery facade behind which there lies Barnam's conviction that he can fool the sucker born every minute.
7
I just assume Trump can't win because most Americans aren't hate filled and stupid.
5
This may be true, but it's also true that most Americans don't vote, so there's still a chance that the hate-filled/stupid vote may carry the day.
7
Great satire, thanks!
1
Whether you support or hate Donald Trump, we need to talk LESS about how horrible or crazy or wrong or ridiculous he is, and focus more on his supporters.
Why he is a leading candidate among the Republican contenders is more fascinating for the media to explore. We cannot disregard his supporters simply as horrible, wrong, crazy, or ridiculous. Why do they believe in him? One thing for sure, they are NOT the minority of voters.
Why he is a leading candidate among the Republican contenders is more fascinating for the media to explore. We cannot disregard his supporters simply as horrible, wrong, crazy, or ridiculous. Why do they believe in him? One thing for sure, they are NOT the minority of voters.
7
If Trump is still strong after the South Carolina primary, Republicans had better consider their chances against the Democratic candidate dicey. Showmen have won the President in the past, most recently Ronald Reagan, and have gone on to perform poorly as Chief Executives but retained popular support, so Trump cannot be counted out. We do not need another egotist in the White House who talks big which makes people proud but whose intellectual capacities and problem solving capabilities are unsophisticated and lead inevitability to worsened outcomes from simplistic responses to difficult and complex crises.
3
From where I sit--there are several problems with looking backwards--at past primary cycles--in order to predict how Trump will fare.
For starters, the Donald isn't running a campaign that remotely resembles past campaigns.
He isn't running ads--or building some sort of national campaign structure to lumber along through the spring--his position in the polls is largely driven by press coverage and attention-grabbing day trips.
This time round--the candidates who are following the playbook of the past--like Jeb!--are in the back of the pack.
More important--Trump doesn't need the parallel equipment the old campaigns depended upon--huge sacks of money to burn through.
He's burning very little now.
Furthermore, if and when the time comes that money becomes an imperative--he's got it already.
For starters, the Donald isn't running a campaign that remotely resembles past campaigns.
He isn't running ads--or building some sort of national campaign structure to lumber along through the spring--his position in the polls is largely driven by press coverage and attention-grabbing day trips.
This time round--the candidates who are following the playbook of the past--like Jeb!--are in the back of the pack.
More important--Trump doesn't need the parallel equipment the old campaigns depended upon--huge sacks of money to burn through.
He's burning very little now.
Furthermore, if and when the time comes that money becomes an imperative--he's got it already.
11
Nate, your historical precedents are shaky, particularly regarding Howard Dean. He was never so consistently high in the polls as Trump. More important, he was never the darling of the media with all the free air time. Not that the media necessarily like Trump's ideology, but they love the advertising $$$ their wall-to-wall exposure gives them, and see that fountain of money continuing well into a Trump presidency. Trump is show-biz above all. Ignore that at your peril. Believe me, the media won't destroy Trump overnight the way they destroyed Dean by repeating ad nauseam the scream that wasn't a scream except for being amplified by the audio equipment.
14
Trump would not be doing so well, in the polls, if we had a President who was doing better. Much better. When Goldwater ran and got crushed, people loved LBJ. Honestly. America was about to embark in a great future with Great Society and Civil Rights for all. When Reagan ran, we had Jimmy Carter. (Note: Reagan was a great man with a great vision. Not so Trump). When push comes to shove and people must actually vote in the primary, Trump will be no more successful than La Pen was in France. But he is expressing a legitimate concern for many people and candidates will reach out to his base. People should be no more concerned about Trump than they are about Bernie Sanders. They won't be elected.
5
That and he's a master at manipulating the media and pandering to sections of the public....no matter how ridiculous his claims are.
1
What was this great vision of Reagan's? Even Lee Atwater, one of the architects of the whole mess recently admits it was all wrong.
3
Cleo, it may interest you to know that Marine Le Pen's party, National Front, has done very well in recent elections.
2
I'd still like to think that there are not that many uninformed, ignorant, bigots and racists in this country that would elect either Trump or Cruz. They are both accidents waiting to happen. They talk big with all their bluster and threats, but neither has put any substantial remedies or solutions to implementing any of their misguided uninformed vitriolic statements. They are both bullies and ego maniacs. This country can do better than electing either one of these clowns.
15
I sure hope you're right Citizen. I do think that the ignorant racist contingent is only about 15% of the country (a little more than the number of Trump supporters really), but I've been wrong before, so I harbor some anxiety about it.
If the ignorant racists win I'm definitely moving to New Zealand, because nuclear war won't be far off.
If the ignorant racists win I'm definitely moving to New Zealand, because nuclear war won't be far off.
1
Mr. Stackhouse, I'll be right behind you.
2
Barry Goldwater will be smiling if Trump wins as he will no longer be the biggest landslide loser. There is no mention in the article of how he can win the general election as it is inconceivable. I think the NYC media has so overexposed him as the shows like Imus, Stern, Morning Joe etc are national shows so his reach is farther than it would be if he was the Trump of Los Angeles, Chicago etc(like Sam Zell). He appeals to walter mitty white guys in IT, accounting etc as they love the multi married, cigar bar mycologists like Rudy, Stern, Kerik, Imus, Oreilly and all the little CNN/Fox generals for hire that appear on TV or radio. Ridiculous
8
It is very conceivable Trump could win the general election. Take one big stumble by Hillary and add a significant terror attack in the U.S., and say hello to President Trump.
2
Geez, how much lower can Hillary go and still be elected?
2
I believe a mainstream Republican is one that has the most broad base support in the party. Trump has the most support within the party, he IS THE MAINSTREAM CANDIDATE. Any suggestion that Trump is not a mainstream Republican is not reading the polls correctly.
The author suggesting that Trump is not a mainstream candidate is essentially saying he is not a moderate Republican. However, just like Reagan, Trump spent many years as a Democrat. So, trying to paint Trump as an extreme right wing politician is not going to stick.
The author suggesting that Trump is not a mainstream candidate is essentially saying he is not a moderate Republican. However, just like Reagan, Trump spent many years as a Democrat. So, trying to paint Trump as an extreme right wing politician is not going to stick.
6
If this country thinks that Ted Cruz is a viable alternative to Donald Trump, the America and Republicans have reached a Bolsvikick moment.
10
What if: either Trump or Cruz when the presidency. They have a republican majority in the congress. Think about that very carefully.
3
You know I don't remember anyone saying that when Obama was elected, twice. How many times did we read about all the racists out there moving to Canada? But, as soon as someone comes along that you don't like and it's over, democracy is done. That's not how it works.
3
I've seen Rubio's new (dumb and pandering) Iowa/New Hampshire ad and read in the NYT about how he tried to quietly dismantle the Affordable Health Care act (that is, whenever he deigned to show up for his job as Senator).
I just don't foresee many moderate Republicans - and I think they're the real "silent majority" of the party, currently looking on in horror - lining up to form a coalition around Rubio, who would be seen as a ridiculous, unqualified hard-right candidate, if only the nation didn't have to deal with the likes of Trump, Carson or the (terrifying) Cruz.
A year from now, if Rubio, Cruz, or Trump is the candidate of choice, I predict that many of those quiet, moderate Republicans are just going to wrinkle (maybe hold) their noses, go into the private voting booth and vote for Hilary Clinton - and Never. Admit. It. To. Anyone.
I just don't foresee many moderate Republicans - and I think they're the real "silent majority" of the party, currently looking on in horror - lining up to form a coalition around Rubio, who would be seen as a ridiculous, unqualified hard-right candidate, if only the nation didn't have to deal with the likes of Trump, Carson or the (terrifying) Cruz.
A year from now, if Rubio, Cruz, or Trump is the candidate of choice, I predict that many of those quiet, moderate Republicans are just going to wrinkle (maybe hold) their noses, go into the private voting booth and vote for Hilary Clinton - and Never. Admit. It. To. Anyone.
23
Every one who votes holds his/her nose.
I have seen them do it.
I do it myself.
I have seen them do it.
I do it myself.
2
Amusing to remember what this same Times printed in June:
"Why He Will Win
We are stumped. And we really tried."
Now this article at least concedes he has a chance. Just making it easier to reverse course without losing face, I suppose!
"Why He Will Win
We are stumped. And we really tried."
Now this article at least concedes he has a chance. Just making it easier to reverse course without losing face, I suppose!
1
Let him or Cruz win. I hope they do. Then, perhaps, the Republican party will change from the destructive entity it is. Another good outcome would be a Democrat as President.
5
oh yeah -- that's what we thought when phony B-actor Reagan was first running for governor in California. Oppsadaisy -- that didn't turn out as we planned. so 'once bitten' -- twice shy!
3
Mr. Cohn's prediction is based on sheer speculation, hope, and a healthy dollop of probable fear.
He might want to read a stock prospectus and understand that "past performance is no indication of future success."
He might want to read a stock prospectus and understand that "past performance is no indication of future success."
13
The fact that a clearly uninformed, dishonest, narcissistic, mean spirited, authoritarian demagogue has gained any traction at all in American politics should be alarming to all.
With no policies, a distinct resistance to our governing balance, Trump remains a frightening reincarnation of 1930's politics in Europe. A Father Coughlin of the 21st century with overwhelming ego driven ambition.
It can happen here.
With no policies, a distinct resistance to our governing balance, Trump remains a frightening reincarnation of 1930's politics in Europe. A Father Coughlin of the 21st century with overwhelming ego driven ambition.
It can happen here.
18
Statistics can reveal significant truths (here it comes) but as an amateur statistician and a guy who uses econometrics quite a bit, the standard wisdom only works when everything has a history. Trump's example has no real data history before 1940. Statisticians and econometricians often get angry at people for not behaving the way the models says they should behave. I also think Trump has a small chance of grabbing the nomination, but I think strong showings in Iowa or New Hampshire would not be like those of Buchanan or Forbes, or other ultra-right wing fascists who've won in the past. Trump is a true demagogue, gifted with a rhetoric and sway that has to be witnessed to be truly understood. He’s the guy (a lovely, good-looking, incredible guy) who intuitively speaks to the fears, bigotry, resentment, and insecurity of his supporters. I think you need to go back to Father Coughlin or Huey Long to understand the gut appeal of Mr. Trump. This quality is difficult to quantify, although if anyone could do it Nate is the likeliest candidate. No other candidate has this quality, and none of the candidates studied in the period from 1980 on had this quality. This is why Trump appears to defy the stats. As a Democrat I am hoping Trump is the candidate (or Cruz) because I believe Dems could take back the Senate for certain, and cut the Republican majority in the House to maybe six. Time will tell.
The most likely person to implode Trump is Trump. We can’t predict that schedule.
The most likely person to implode Trump is Trump. We can’t predict that schedule.
7
Trump's electability will eventually be reduced to basic math. But the wild card in the equation has less to do with numbers than psychology. We are witnessing an unparalleled case of mass hysteria, or mob madness, triggered by the widespread psychological stress of the Great Recession and lengthy, listless economic recovery.
Americans have experienced the most bitter economic conditions since the Great Depression. Loss of job and home are two of the top stressors leading to the breakdown of nuclear families, often resulting in divorce and serious mental and physical illnesses. After nearly a decade of such negative conditions its not surprising that millions of Americans have become disaffected and discouraged with a seemingly disinterested and clearly incompetent government. Depression and anxiety have been easily transformed into anger and rage by a cult like figure who reinforces dissatisfaction with current leadership while forcefully issuing promises of a better future. People desperately need to believe in a quick fix for their problems. Trump's lies and empty promises become truth and a brighter future because to believe otherwise is inconceivably painful.
This is nowhere near a new phenomenon. Throughout history, brutal tyrants have built powerful dictatorships by manipulating the poor, ignorant and dispossessed. Most eventually ended but only after entire populations were reduced to utter ruin.
The haunting question is whether we allow it to happen again.
Americans have experienced the most bitter economic conditions since the Great Depression. Loss of job and home are two of the top stressors leading to the breakdown of nuclear families, often resulting in divorce and serious mental and physical illnesses. After nearly a decade of such negative conditions its not surprising that millions of Americans have become disaffected and discouraged with a seemingly disinterested and clearly incompetent government. Depression and anxiety have been easily transformed into anger and rage by a cult like figure who reinforces dissatisfaction with current leadership while forcefully issuing promises of a better future. People desperately need to believe in a quick fix for their problems. Trump's lies and empty promises become truth and a brighter future because to believe otherwise is inconceivably painful.
This is nowhere near a new phenomenon. Throughout history, brutal tyrants have built powerful dictatorships by manipulating the poor, ignorant and dispossessed. Most eventually ended but only after entire populations were reduced to utter ruin.
The haunting question is whether we allow it to happen again.
10
"[M]anipulating the poor, ignorant and dispossessed."
Yo! I qualify, but no one is manipulating me.
I am being ignored.
Yo! I qualify, but no one is manipulating me.
I am being ignored.
1
A big thing Trump has going for him is that all the other Republican candidates have bundles of policies that are disasters for the nation -- even if some of them look good in a suit or on camera!
11
Keep whistling past that graveyard.
And let*s look past something everybody already knows--Trump the person needs some heavy, heavy therapy.
Who terrifies me? Truly evil people like Cruz. Truly mediocre people like Rubio. Truly clueless people like Jeb Bush.
Truly venal people like the Clintons.
And I*ll wager that many, many people feel like I do. People who voted for Obama twice-yes-twice and got Bush light, with Cheney veterans in policy positions in this White House. Ferocious attacks on whistleblowers and wet noodles tossed at Wall Street, and even those not sticking.
World condemnation of Trump*s suggestion of a moratorium--not a ban, but a moratorium on Muslim immigration to this country is very much because Europe itself is drowning. Every person we take is a person they don't need to worry about.
And any candidate who has a track record of condemning and opposing the rush to war has more smarts than candidates who never met a military option they weren*t willing to consider. The hot Clinton hand or the cool Trump one?
I*ve never voted for a conservative or a Republican, but I didn't vote for Hillary when she wanted to be my representative. I just stayed home.
But you just watch. A lot of people who otherwise would stay home, faced with a choice between, say, Bush and Clinton, or {fill in here} Republican, are just angry enough to go out and vote for Trump.
And let*s look past something everybody already knows--Trump the person needs some heavy, heavy therapy.
Who terrifies me? Truly evil people like Cruz. Truly mediocre people like Rubio. Truly clueless people like Jeb Bush.
Truly venal people like the Clintons.
And I*ll wager that many, many people feel like I do. People who voted for Obama twice-yes-twice and got Bush light, with Cheney veterans in policy positions in this White House. Ferocious attacks on whistleblowers and wet noodles tossed at Wall Street, and even those not sticking.
World condemnation of Trump*s suggestion of a moratorium--not a ban, but a moratorium on Muslim immigration to this country is very much because Europe itself is drowning. Every person we take is a person they don't need to worry about.
And any candidate who has a track record of condemning and opposing the rush to war has more smarts than candidates who never met a military option they weren*t willing to consider. The hot Clinton hand or the cool Trump one?
I*ve never voted for a conservative or a Republican, but I didn't vote for Hillary when she wanted to be my representative. I just stayed home.
But you just watch. A lot of people who otherwise would stay home, faced with a choice between, say, Bush and Clinton, or {fill in here} Republican, are just angry enough to go out and vote for Trump.
11
Jimmy Carter did the same thing concerning immigration when he was President anybody whine and complain about that? Changes are needed NOW where immigration (legally or not) is concerned. We currently have a President scared of his own shadow and refusing to act. That's why you have people like Trump and Cruz running.
4
That is so irrelevant to what Trump is proposing. President Carter used the policy as a sanction on a nation, not a multi-national religion, because of a hostage situation.
http://www.snopes.com/jimmy-carter-banned-iranian-immigrants/
http://www.snopes.com/jimmy-carter-banned-iranian-immigrants/
1
Trump never intended to become president. He is probably just as surprised with the support he is still gathering at this stage of the game as we are. His entire campaign is a dare of some sort "how many dumb followers can I really get?". This is a man who is a superb marketer and businessman. The publicity he is gathering is beyond what he ever dreamed of or would ever pay for. He knows he cannot be a respected president and that this is not a Reality TV show, he knows that he would be an embarrassment to this country and its citizens in any meeting with a serious foreign leader. And yet, he tries to come up with outrageous comments to finally get people to allow him to step out of the race, and to everyone's disbelief, he becomes even more popular! Shame on everyone and shame on the media that treat his undeserving silliness as worthy of reporting 24-7 as if he could actually be a real contender.
6
it's an unsettling thought, i know, but we must rely on the intelligence of the American voter to choose the most qualified person: Madame President.
10
I really like Carly Fiorina too!
1
What can all these "maniacs" offer the good, decent, hard working, Americans who live quiet lives with their families and just want to get by, have hope for their kids, want to enjoy friends, maybe get away for a vacation, stay ahead of bills (especially medical) and long for a society that values and devotes it's resources to the great majority of average, work-a-day folk?
The nonsense and no rational plan crowd of Republicans is like offering a plate of sand to a hungry person.
Worthless.
Straight talk and plans that stand up to intelligent (remember intelligence? I do.) analysis please.
The nonsense and no rational plan crowd of Republicans is like offering a plate of sand to a hungry person.
Worthless.
Straight talk and plans that stand up to intelligent (remember intelligence? I do.) analysis please.
8
. . . the total lack by ANY GOP candidate of even a first gesture toward Eisenhower-era gravitas or concern for the nation as a whole . . . so many bottles of diluted dish-washing soap being peddled from a low-rent storefront . . .
5
This is unprecedented territory, it's going to be a fractured/brokered convention and Paul Ryan may emerge as the party's nominee,,,,,Trump is more akin to Ross Perot and Forbes than any other political phenomena
2
According to the most advanced analytics, Trump can win when pigs fly.
2
If the USA wakes up to a President Trump in November 2016, the blame will rest entirely with of the mainstream media, including the NYT. This incessant coverage of Trump, as negative as it may be, is the only reason he has risen to the top of the polls on the Republican side.
On the Democratic side, nobody at the NYT points out that Bernie Sanders has risen in the most recent Iowa poll, conducted by the incomparable Ann Seltzer, showing that he is now only 9 points behind Hillary Clinton. He is ahead by 10% in New Hampshire. However, the NYT spins this news by saying Clinton is solidifying her lead and blah, blah, blah. Almost every day there is an article about how Secretary Clinton is going to roll out or unveil her latest strategy, but any parallel coverage for Senator Sanders is non-existent.
If anyone, anywhere has ever doubted that our democracy is rigged and that the corporate owned media controls the message, this year should dispel any lingering illusions that we the people are in charge.
On the Democratic side, nobody at the NYT points out that Bernie Sanders has risen in the most recent Iowa poll, conducted by the incomparable Ann Seltzer, showing that he is now only 9 points behind Hillary Clinton. He is ahead by 10% in New Hampshire. However, the NYT spins this news by saying Clinton is solidifying her lead and blah, blah, blah. Almost every day there is an article about how Secretary Clinton is going to roll out or unveil her latest strategy, but any parallel coverage for Senator Sanders is non-existent.
If anyone, anywhere has ever doubted that our democracy is rigged and that the corporate owned media controls the message, this year should dispel any lingering illusions that we the people are in charge.
15
The Democratic party does itself no favors by refusing to address immigration concerns, as it does not take an economist to understand that when there is an oversupply of labor, which drives wages every downwards, it cannot be fixed by importing even more labor. Law of supply and demand always wins, yet the Democrats will not address this issue and a vacuum existed.
The Left adds to Trump's allure but insisting that anyone who wants to limit immigration is a bigot, a racist, a xenophobe, a fascist, a hater...the list goes on and on and can be seen in the comments here.
The Left adds to Trump's allure but insisting that anyone who wants to limit immigration is a bigot, a racist, a xenophobe, a fascist, a hater...the list goes on and on and can be seen in the comments here.
12
Trump, Cruz or a three-toed Sloth. What does it matter? There are the same old states who will vote for who (what) ever the GOP CANDIDATE is. It will still come down to the 2/3 swing states. This is where Hillary needs to stay away from the mistakes that turns people off. She is not that well liked by many who will vote for her but she needs to be very careful.
5
If Trump is the GOP nominee, it will be virtually a third party phenomenon because the party establishment will not support him. In that sense, 2016 may end up being the year in which the Republican Party splinters, never to reassemble in its current form. There might even be room for a return of that near-endangered species: the Rockefeller-Dole-Baker-Javits moderate/liberal Republican.
Now, wouldn't that be an interesting twist to the Trump!
Now, wouldn't that be an interesting twist to the Trump!
10
In the past Social Security was seen as the " third rail " of politics. If you touched it you were dead. But in the last 10 or 15 years, because of a cultural change called political correctness, there are far more " third rails " that professional politicians will not address, which has angered a large segment of our population. Along came Trump who will say anything without any fear of offending anyone. People find this so refreshing that they are willing to overlook his exaggerations and untrue statements. Because Hillary is so programmed and also a champion of political correctness, Trump may actually do it.
5
how many thought bush could be pres ?
hands, pls
hands, pls
4
I still don't believe it.
10
There is a lot of wishful thinking in this peice. The author is seemingly trying to reassure himself that Trump will lose. He is not a factional candidate in an election like this, he is as mainstream as it gets. Trump is on TV or mentioned extensively in the print media everyday, it is the so-called "mainstream" candidates like Bush, Rubio, and Christie who have been ignored this cycle. Also, you mentioned the moderate blue states, alluding to them as a kind of firewall to stop Trump's advance I'm the primaries, well he is beating the other candidates by ten points or more in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New Hampshire. Cruz looks like the Herman Cain of this cycle and Trump is the Romney, the one who is inevitable, but who lots of people don't really want.
7
Nate
What is troubling is that you have failed to mention what is foremost in the minds of Trump supporters (I am not one yet but may end up as one)...which is Terrorism and our current inept administrations' lack of action in protecting the citizens of this great country....Obama's #1 responsibility. Hillary would, per her lack of a track record, be a repeat of the disaster we are currently faced with, ergo, any further (and daily appearing ever more likely) terrorist attacks on US soil, and Trump wins.
What is troubling is that you have failed to mention what is foremost in the minds of Trump supporters (I am not one yet but may end up as one)...which is Terrorism and our current inept administrations' lack of action in protecting the citizens of this great country....Obama's #1 responsibility. Hillary would, per her lack of a track record, be a repeat of the disaster we are currently faced with, ergo, any further (and daily appearing ever more likely) terrorist attacks on US soil, and Trump wins.
2
Prior to the attacks in Paris, what was "foremost" in the minds of Trump supporters was Immigration and building a wall. After the attacks, it's now Terrorism. What is actually foremost in the minds of Trump supporters is Fear which he has exploited and demagogued. Hopefully, you won't succumb.
4
In reply to Chaz1954
"Bin Laden Determined to Strike in US" - that's all you need to know about how the last tough-guy Republican President protected Americans. He stayed on vacation after the CIA, frustrated by complete failure to act despite seven months of warnings about Al Qaeda, titled the 8/6/01 PDB as quoted above.
In contrast, Obama presided over the capture and killing of Bin Laden, but you've forgotten. I dare say far more Americans died from slipping in the bathtub than died from terrorist attacks "on US soil."
As for the next president, she or he could learn from the failures of Bush and Obama. Starting unnecessary wars that result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians (Bush) create far more terrorists than they kill. So too does relying on drones, which keep boots off the ground result but kill as many civilians as terrorists (Obama).
"Bin Laden Determined to Strike in US" - that's all you need to know about how the last tough-guy Republican President protected Americans. He stayed on vacation after the CIA, frustrated by complete failure to act despite seven months of warnings about Al Qaeda, titled the 8/6/01 PDB as quoted above.
In contrast, Obama presided over the capture and killing of Bin Laden, but you've forgotten. I dare say far more Americans died from slipping in the bathtub than died from terrorist attacks "on US soil."
As for the next president, she or he could learn from the failures of Bush and Obama. Starting unnecessary wars that result in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians (Bush) create far more terrorists than they kill. So too does relying on drones, which keep boots off the ground result but kill as many civilians as terrorists (Obama).
3
In Reply to Mick
Are you kidding me. Obama is the weakest POTUS one can imagine. Drone strikes....oh my, we sure are unleashing dervishes on the terrorists. He instructs his commanders to tell them ahead of time when strikes are going to happen
Liberalism just does not cut it in today's terrifying world.
Are you kidding me. Obama is the weakest POTUS one can imagine. Drone strikes....oh my, we sure are unleashing dervishes on the terrorists. He instructs his commanders to tell them ahead of time when strikes are going to happen
Liberalism just does not cut it in today's terrifying world.
1
All the speculation tells us one thing: Nobody knows what's going to happen in the presidential race. The only thing we say for sure is that Charles Manson will not be the Republican nominee. At least I hope not.....
2
Donald Trump makes Charles Manson look like Mike Brady. (The Brady Bunch)
If Donald Trump is so "not going to win" and "has no chance", why all the media coverage? Why are Obama supporters freaking out and obsessing over something that can't happen?
Hint: Because it CAN.
Hint: Because it CAN.
13
If climate change is so "not real" and "not manmade", why all the media coverage? Why are Obama supporters freaking out and obsessing over something that can't happen?
Hint: Because it CAN.
Hint: Because it CAN.
5
What do "Obama supporters" have to do with this? (Apart, of course, from the fact that you hate them.)
10
Time to get over the fact that Obama was elected. Twice.
3
Nate, you've lost all credibility. Isn't the upshot supposed to be an unbiased statistical analysis? If you don't have anything interesting to say about the actual candidates and their positions, then I guess you have to report on the horse race. But please, no more tenuous prognostication and political gossip. you already are going to have to spend much space in this coming year walking back the opinions you have so far foisted on us.
9
Trump is going to be hard to beat. He's already got name recognition due to Celebrity Apprentice, and like Reagan, the public thinks they already know him and like him. There you go - they LIKE HIM. Someone said that you elect the president you like, not necessarily the one that knows the most. Trump is clearly his own person, and so far has not shown signs of being bought by one set of billionaires or another. Unlike Romney, he actually seems connected to the real world, and not just how to siphon money out of people, but to actually grow industry in this country. We've had 20 years of mess created by Republicans and Democrats digging us out of the created messes - I think Trump could win as either a Republican or Independent, and that will be a game changer for the White House. Congress might actually have to do something for their constituents as opposed to get-rich-quick scheming for themselves. More and more, Trump is emerging as a unique and positive force for change, and that will be interesting at the polls indeed.
8
I think it's clear that most of the people commenting here haven't really been watching Trump's campaign rallies, and don't realize how comfortable and genuine he is with the crowd. He's been very interested in politics for years, and has almost always had insightful things to say about our government's actions. Most Democrats don't realize that he's running because he really wants to be president, but they'll find out. They'll also find out that he's actually pretty moderate on many issues. He will pivot when the primary is over, and his supports will not care. We expect it.
Why he could win? his mouth.
Why he probably won't? his hair.
Why he probably won't? his hair.
5
I have to say, I find it very strange that Mr Cohn is all but dismissing Trump even though he's on top of the Republican polls, while all but dismissing Bernie Sanders because he's *not* on top of the Democratic polls.
Indeed, I get the distinct impression that Cohn will be eager to dismiss both Trump and Sanders even if they start winning primaries. Because his entire argument amounts to "Well, what really matters isn't what voters think." Which is actually all that matters.
As far as the point about Howard Dean, what did him in was a concerted effort involving a misleading video with edited audio of his post-Iowa speech that was played over and over again by the mainstream press. Which I guess is better than what they're doing to Bernie Sanders, which is doing everything they can to pretend that he doesn't exist.
Indeed, I get the distinct impression that Cohn will be eager to dismiss both Trump and Sanders even if they start winning primaries. Because his entire argument amounts to "Well, what really matters isn't what voters think." Which is actually all that matters.
As far as the point about Howard Dean, what did him in was a concerted effort involving a misleading video with edited audio of his post-Iowa speech that was played over and over again by the mainstream press. Which I guess is better than what they're doing to Bernie Sanders, which is doing everything they can to pretend that he doesn't exist.
24
What does DT have in common with Ronald Reagan, Jesse Ventura, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Charlton Heston? They were all "television or movie" personalities who were placed in high political offices or used by mouthpieces by BIG democracy-destroying money masters. BIG democracy-destroying money masters are trying to shove DT and other "republican" operatives down our throats. Let's make sure we do not make the same mistake again by voting for them.
11
What political office did Heston ever hold?
1
I think that Hillary is a very vulnerable candidate as can be seen by her exceptionally high negative ratings and that Republican consultants are quite aware of this but say little about it because they actually want to run against her. If I am right, a President Trump or Rubio is entirely possible.
7
Trump and what army will win against Hillary? He will get 0% to -5% of the Hispanic vote., he will not get the female vote, he will not get a majority of the independent vote. Any candidate needs at least 27 % of the Hispanic vote to win. Game over. Trump will not be president. And Hillary's negatives are starting to go down, It seems now that e-ghazi has fallen by the wayside (sorry Michael Schmidt, you tried)and the rise of Trump are making voters think twice.
13
if that was the case republican strategists would not be setting their hair on fire... they are terrified of Trump, its because they know he is a lost cause
nate silver hasnt yet pronounced it but all his articles recently have been increasingly leaning that way
nate silver hasnt yet pronounced it but all his articles recently have been increasingly leaning that way
2
The NYT clearly enjoys the spectacle and by continually focusing on this celebrated American figure, apparently you endorse what and how he promotes an American nightmare.
4
The Times spent much more time and resources this year "celebrating" Jeb Bush. Disciplined dieter! Faithful Catholic! Deep thinker!
5
I may be wrong, and I often am, but I cling to the hope that the majority of Americans would never elect someone as vile, as vain, or as vacuous as Trump. Some folks say that he says aloud what they are thinking, and they find this "refreshing". But I don't think he speaks for most of us, and I think that most of us find him repulsive. I have faith in America standing up for the values most of us embrace, not for the rage-filled rantings of a rich man spouting what he thinks the people want to hear.
30
CNN is hawking tonight’s televised Republican debate as if it were a world champion sports event with big money advertisers. The Republican race has become nothing more than entertainment; a reality show and laugh riot. The NYT should not waste their time publishing intelligent articles because the majority of the electorate has denigrated to paying no attention to anything that does not entertain or cannot be reduced to a short YouTube video.
14
What will be very revealing about Trump’s campaign are the Q4 campaign finance reports. Based on the reports to date, Trump has done astonishingly little to establish a ‘real’ campaign, that is: raise funds and build field operations.
Is he a revolutionary candidate who is going to turn the entire model of modern presidential campaigns on its head and ride free media and Twitter to victory? Absent any sort of real organization are Trump voters going to spontaneously flock to the polls and give him the votes he needs to actually win something? I find that very, very hard to believe.
I am going to hold fast to what I have always thought about Trump’s campaign: In terms of actual electoral effectiveness it is a complete mirage and will totally fail when faced with the difficult task of actually winning an election. The only things that would make me reconsider are: 1) evidence of a real campaign in the form of substantive Q4 results. 2) at least $50 million in “earnest money” from Trump’s personal wealth.
Is he a revolutionary candidate who is going to turn the entire model of modern presidential campaigns on its head and ride free media and Twitter to victory? Absent any sort of real organization are Trump voters going to spontaneously flock to the polls and give him the votes he needs to actually win something? I find that very, very hard to believe.
I am going to hold fast to what I have always thought about Trump’s campaign: In terms of actual electoral effectiveness it is a complete mirage and will totally fail when faced with the difficult task of actually winning an election. The only things that would make me reconsider are: 1) evidence of a real campaign in the form of substantive Q4 results. 2) at least $50 million in “earnest money” from Trump’s personal wealth.
7
Many states hold open GOP presidential primaries, where non-GOP voters can cross over and vote. Two such states are among those holding early contests, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Might not a significant number of independent voters (the largest group in New Hampshire, at least) or even Democrats cross over and express their anger or mischief by voting for Trump? There have been recent cases where the primary winner was determined by the crossover vote, even though the registered GOP voters favored another candidate.
It may be relevant that independent voters tend to be less evangelical and less impressed by the party establishment than independents.
Might not a significant number of independent voters (the largest group in New Hampshire, at least) or even Democrats cross over and express their anger or mischief by voting for Trump? There have been recent cases where the primary winner was determined by the crossover vote, even though the registered GOP voters favored another candidate.
It may be relevant that independent voters tend to be less evangelical and less impressed by the party establishment than independents.
4
Nate fails to mention one thing that could sweep Trump into office: more terrorist attacks in the US or maybe Europe. There is a fairly large mass of otherwise innattentive citizens that have little idea of what is going on in the world, but they perk their heads up when the TV shows a horrible attack happening in some place that they could imagine themselves being. It does not matter that there is a whole list of other things that are much more likely to kill them, like auto accidents or their own guns. American politicians have been using irrational fear as a tactic forever. Because it works.
40
"inconsistent with recent history"
This reads more like sports commentary than political analysis. Mr. Cohn's points sound like cocktail party chat or an alert from a stock broker based on chart analysis.
This reads more like sports commentary than political analysis. Mr. Cohn's points sound like cocktail party chat or an alert from a stock broker based on chart analysis.
2
Trump is the textbook example of a stereotypical Republican.
4
Trump is probably the most honest candidate out there, which automatically implies he is politically not correct. I do not understand the bias in most NYTimes and other media against Trump.
10
An honest hater is still a hater.
10
"Honest"? about what? Would he be able to ban all Muslims from entering the US? No. Not without the cooperation of Congress, which plays a big role in making laws in the US. I don't get how anyone thinks Trump is honest. He says what he thinks. That does not equate to honesty.
Politicians aren't honest. They can't be. We should stop expecting them to be so.
Politicians aren't honest. They can't be. We should stop expecting them to be so.
5
his 'fact checking' numbers are deplorable.
what definition of honesty are you alluding to?
what definition of honesty are you alluding to?
7
This article not only ignores the winner-take-all rigging put in place in 2012 to prevent a brokered convention, it omits that Trump's supposed ceiling among Republicans has risen from low 20%s to 40%, that Carson and Cruz are arguably equally fringe, that comparisons with 4 and 8 years ago are shaky because this campaign has had far more public attention this early, and that some of the media have sheltered Cohn's option Rubio from serious scrutiny but that is breaking down.
1
Any analysis of Trump's chances really have to be an analysis of his base. None of the candidates, Trump included, are moving their base in any particular way. It is the base that is moving the candidates. The base supporting Trump is angry for a bunch of reasons, all of which leaves them irrational in focusing that anger into a winning objective. Their anger is focused on letting the GOP hierarchy, including its business and evangelical wings, know that they're angry for past sins and don't believe those sins are easily forgiven. Whether the sins are failing to prevent the cultural losses, or the general anger that the American dream passed them by, the anger leaves them uncaring what the hierarchy thinks. Similarly the GOP hierarchy's constant retooling of their message still isn't working and won't work. Trump's base intends to go all the way and if they have to burn the GOP down, then it serves them (the establishment GOP) right.
6
Trump supporters understand that we're blowing up the Republican Party. That's the point. The "Party" promises lower taxes, lower deficits, boarder security, smaller government......and do none of it again & again. We're done with the "Party". There are many, many more Trump supporters out here. 41% is just a start.
4
Comparing Trump to past candidates is a mistake. He is unique. And, he has gathered a very faithful flock. Everyone is waiting for Trump to say something outlandish and implode. That is the difference between him and past candidates. Trumps backers get stronger, more supportive with each utterance of an absurdity. He understands his backers. Those who write about him don't.
The people who back Trump are not new to the GOP. They have been there all of the time, growing angrier with each election cycle as they were forced to vote for faux conservatives like Bush, Romney. Finally, they have a candidate who puts their feelings out there. They will not be leaving him. No matter what he may say.
And can someone in the media, bring the world back to reality about Iowa? Look who wins the GOP caucuses. Look who wins the GOP CANDICACY. Iowa continues to be next to meaningless. It's only claim is its first.
The people who back Trump are not new to the GOP. They have been there all of the time, growing angrier with each election cycle as they were forced to vote for faux conservatives like Bush, Romney. Finally, they have a candidate who puts their feelings out there. They will not be leaving him. No matter what he may say.
And can someone in the media, bring the world back to reality about Iowa? Look who wins the GOP caucuses. Look who wins the GOP CANDICACY. Iowa continues to be next to meaningless. It's only claim is its first.
7
Funny you should mention Howard Dean....
"Mr. Trump has emerged as a true factional candidate — much more like Howard Dean or Pat Buchanan than Herman Cain..."
Those who believe Trump will be around much longer should do some homework on Howard Dean in the 2004 campaign. See where Dean stood at this time in 2003. Then check to see where he stood after the Iowa caucus. Don't stop there -- check where he stood after the New Hampshire primary.
After you've done your homework, ask yourself whether you're still so sure that Donald Trump will be here in a few months.
By the way, the quoted passage also mentions Pat Buchanan and Herman Cain. How'd they do?
"Mr. Trump has emerged as a true factional candidate — much more like Howard Dean or Pat Buchanan than Herman Cain..."
Those who believe Trump will be around much longer should do some homework on Howard Dean in the 2004 campaign. See where Dean stood at this time in 2003. Then check to see where he stood after the Iowa caucus. Don't stop there -- check where he stood after the New Hampshire primary.
After you've done your homework, ask yourself whether you're still so sure that Donald Trump will be here in a few months.
By the way, the quoted passage also mentions Pat Buchanan and Herman Cain. How'd they do?
3
If Trump's floor is public support and his ceiling is private (his) money, then both are high, and getting higher, one based upon mass false consciousness and the other on massive campaign spending. In both cases, tragically, the sky seems to be the limit for Trump, who clearly is the choice of deluded Republicans fed up with business as usual and career politicians. For Democrats similarly fed up, the choice is Sanders. So, it looks like America is heading for its first socialist or fascist President. Unfortunately, most voters don't know the difference between fascism/socialism and rheumatism, an ignorance which helps propel Trump's candidacy of arrogance. God help us.
6
My worst fear is Trump who i consider a bigot and nasty vs Sanders who has too many give away programs which I think the middle class will end up paying taxes for and a conscientious objector who is not suited to be Commander in Chief in these troubled times.
4
Many more of us who are still in the shrinking middle class, and those who were once in the middle class support Sanders than you could ever know.
8
I am fearful and greatly saddened that the media is required, as here, to describe the Republican contest as between mainstream and factional candidates. By any standard that would have been applied until a very few years ago, all of these candidates would have been considered as radical reactionaries. I think that the clear distinction now is between those extreme right wingers that the "party Establishment" think they can control and those who frighten them as much as they do progressives.
12
Guess Cohn needs something to write about. And like the rest of the press Trump is low hanging fruit. The republicans are going to be obliterated.
5
I wish.
See…looking into Trump is akin to what many go through when searching for that new, dreamy car.
You begin aspirational…checking out that luxury Jaguar, that muscle-bound Corvette, or something like that. You are impressed by the looks, by that roaring engine. But as you approach the moment of purchase, you realize that you need to get more than fluff. So, you look under the hood, kick the tires, go for a test drive…and you find that such dreamy car actually has the engineering of a Yugo, the drivability of a Lada, and the reliability of a Ford Pinto. So you scrap the earlier search, get serious, and get something practical and reliable that makes real sense.
As elections go from the dreamy primaries’ honeymoon to the real thing (POTUS election), Trump will reveal his Ford-Pinto side, and crash.
You begin aspirational…checking out that luxury Jaguar, that muscle-bound Corvette, or something like that. You are impressed by the looks, by that roaring engine. But as you approach the moment of purchase, you realize that you need to get more than fluff. So, you look under the hood, kick the tires, go for a test drive…and you find that such dreamy car actually has the engineering of a Yugo, the drivability of a Lada, and the reliability of a Ford Pinto. So you scrap the earlier search, get serious, and get something practical and reliable that makes real sense.
As elections go from the dreamy primaries’ honeymoon to the real thing (POTUS election), Trump will reveal his Ford-Pinto side, and crash.
5
I hope you are right...love the car buying analogy!
1
Trump's candidacy raises three possible scenarios, none of them good for the Republican Party, and none of them involving the possibility that his support from a significant core of Republican will collapse, because I don't think it will
1. Trump gets to the convention with the most delegates and is shut out of the nomination by the party elders. While some of his core hold their nose and vote for the nominee, others will stay home or even vote for Bernie, if he is the Dems' nominee. In the short run, many Trumpite/Tea Party Republicans ill be elected down ticket but ultimately the GOP in its present form will cease to exist.
2. Ditto for downticket, with Trump the nominee being elected. Much unrest and divisiveness and a backlash.
3. Trump is the nominee and loses big.
The Dems may not have it better. Given the right's hostility to the Clintons, a Hillary administration would face sabotage even worse than President Obama's. Ironically, while, I believe, a populist Bernie administration could unite the nation, the legacy of his nomination would be a fractured Democratic Party. In the run-up to the primaries, right now the party doesn't seem as desperate to shut Bernie out as the GOP is to dump Trump, that will change big time if he gets close to winning the nomination.
We are in for interesting times.
1. Trump gets to the convention with the most delegates and is shut out of the nomination by the party elders. While some of his core hold their nose and vote for the nominee, others will stay home or even vote for Bernie, if he is the Dems' nominee. In the short run, many Trumpite/Tea Party Republicans ill be elected down ticket but ultimately the GOP in its present form will cease to exist.
2. Ditto for downticket, with Trump the nominee being elected. Much unrest and divisiveness and a backlash.
3. Trump is the nominee and loses big.
The Dems may not have it better. Given the right's hostility to the Clintons, a Hillary administration would face sabotage even worse than President Obama's. Ironically, while, I believe, a populist Bernie administration could unite the nation, the legacy of his nomination would be a fractured Democratic Party. In the run-up to the primaries, right now the party doesn't seem as desperate to shut Bernie out as the GOP is to dump Trump, that will change big time if he gets close to winning the nomination.
We are in for interesting times.
3
I've ignored Trump, because I expect he'll be out of the race when it matters. Like everyone else, I'd expected that to happen sooner, but it will happen eventually. Trump's supporters talk as if this is something new under the sun, but we've often had "rebel" candidates. They fizzle and burn out, every time. When was the last time either party nominated someone other than a professional politician?
Hillary Clinton supporters actually like to keep Trump in the limelight, in part because they pay attention to polls showing Clinton would win a Clinton-Trump matchup in a cakewalk. That's also true in other matchups, with one notable exception: Clinton-Rubio. Rubio's won those lately. I seriously doubt Clinton's people haven't noticed that. That's one reason they prefer to keep talking about Trump.
Hillary Clinton supporters actually like to keep Trump in the limelight, in part because they pay attention to polls showing Clinton would win a Clinton-Trump matchup in a cakewalk. That's also true in other matchups, with one notable exception: Clinton-Rubio. Rubio's won those lately. I seriously doubt Clinton's people haven't noticed that. That's one reason they prefer to keep talking about Trump.
6
I am a Hillary supporter and I would rather not risk the chance of Trump possibly becoming President. Her strong opponents are Rubio or Christie.
He's the front-runner because he's in front. It's that simple. It's a race. Of course anything can happen. Although most everyone seems to think it is less likely, anything can still happen in the Democrat race too, and she is also a front runner.
2
When one looks at the pure numbers, Mr. Trump has less support than Bernie Sanders. There are more registered Democrats than Republicans and Mr. Sanders polls higher than Mr. Trump.
Except you'll never hear that out of the media, in fact the presumptive nominee has already been crowned on the Democratic side in Mrs. Hillary Clinton.
You won't directly hear that either.
No, instead all you hear is fear, fear of immigrants, fear of real solutions for the middle class, fear of the outside world and fear of our fellow Americans.
That's Trump making America great again, making America filled with fear again and that's the Clintons sitting their with their "just ate the cat" smiles soaking it all in ultimately benefitting from all this fear.
“Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself” - Franklin D. Roosevelt (1932)
If only we had another FDR for the 21st century.
Except you'll never hear that out of the media, in fact the presumptive nominee has already been crowned on the Democratic side in Mrs. Hillary Clinton.
You won't directly hear that either.
No, instead all you hear is fear, fear of immigrants, fear of real solutions for the middle class, fear of the outside world and fear of our fellow Americans.
That's Trump making America great again, making America filled with fear again and that's the Clintons sitting their with their "just ate the cat" smiles soaking it all in ultimately benefitting from all this fear.
“Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself” - Franklin D. Roosevelt (1932)
If only we had another FDR for the 21st century.
19
I'd expect the Democrats to be, of necessity, factoring Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt (funny how FUD never really goes away) into their strategies. This is neither new nor unique.
To paint Dems as cheering for the hate coming from the right to continue -- because it puts gas in the Democratic tank -- is somewhat unfair. As a matter of political necessity, such hatemongering cannot be ignored.
Not to mention that playing with hate (as Trump and Republicans in general do) is like juggling nitroglycerin: you're going to have a big impact, but might not be in one piece to enjoy it.
To paint Dems as cheering for the hate coming from the right to continue -- because it puts gas in the Democratic tank -- is somewhat unfair. As a matter of political necessity, such hatemongering cannot be ignored.
Not to mention that playing with hate (as Trump and Republicans in general do) is like juggling nitroglycerin: you're going to have a big impact, but might not be in one piece to enjoy it.
1
The FDR for the 21st Century is Bernie Sanders.
7
I was puzzled that this article failed to mention the structure of the Republican primary process, particularly the fact that the primaries starting on March 15th will be winner-take-all. It's not hard to imagine a scenario where Trump places second in Iowa, wins New Hampshire, Nevada, and maybe South Carolina, then gets a decent share of delegates on "Super Tuesday," March 1st. I can see him winning Florida, Ohio, Illinois and maybe North Carolina or Missouri on the 15th and collecting over 300 delegates in the process. At that point "Big Mo," as G.H.W Bush called it, may make Trump impossible to catch.
5
From your computer screen to God's ear, Mr. Cohn. Or maybe God's eye.
Trump is a true outsider to politics and runs roughshod over the conventional politicians, their handlers, their talking points, the party machinery, the advisors and the press. It's great entertainment which our ridiculously long election cycle needs.
Beyond the spectacle though he pushes politically incorrect buttons that many Americans agree with. Politically incorrect ideas are those things that the press, mainstream politicians and the elite say "you can't do" like a bunch of old church ladies so politicians spend all their time talking about how they "can't do it" and why that makes them great people. They haven't a clue. Nobody wants to hear what leaders "can't do" they want to hear what they "can do."
Trump tells people he will do those things and he has a track record of getting things done and that brings credibility.
Now let the church lady tongue clucking and gossiping begin.
Beyond the spectacle though he pushes politically incorrect buttons that many Americans agree with. Politically incorrect ideas are those things that the press, mainstream politicians and the elite say "you can't do" like a bunch of old church ladies so politicians spend all their time talking about how they "can't do it" and why that makes them great people. They haven't a clue. Nobody wants to hear what leaders "can't do" they want to hear what they "can do."
Trump tells people he will do those things and he has a track record of getting things done and that brings credibility.
Now let the church lady tongue clucking and gossiping begin.
5
I'll place my bet: Chris Christie will be the GOP nominee, the grooming is right and he's had smart money backing for years to this purpose, taking baby steps all the way. Trump will go indie in an indignant yet very-funny huff. So will Ben Carson, but...ah, well. The other wild hare GOP candidates will drop out and take enough of their own die-hard supporters with them that Christie will only be able count smart money Republicans (which is all he really needs for the longer haul, anyway.) Hillary is the next prez. Christie will run for the senate in a few years and win, and if his numbers stay even and he doesn't have health issues, he's likely a future GOP prez. After two-term Hillary.
3
I think you grossly underestimate how much Christie is disliked by those of us under his "governance" of New Jersey.
And Bridget Kelly doesn't get up on the witness stand until February. She's divorced with four kids. She ain't going to prison for the big guy.
And Bridget Kelly doesn't get up on the witness stand until February. She's divorced with four kids. She ain't going to prison for the big guy.
You say Trump will not be acceptable to the Republican establishment, but the Republican establishment is responsible for the rise of Trump. Their willingness, in fact, eagerness, to send subtle dog whistles over the years to cater to an increasingly angry, xenophobic and, frankly, racist base led to Trump as a candidate winning polls in the GOP primary. And now they are shocked - shocked! - at his success?
15
All the commenters who think that the article is wrong and that Trump is a viable front-runner should hold their fire until after the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primaries. One way or another, we'll then find out if the Trump candidacy has legs. Till then, just sit back and relax as the politicians duke it out.
7
The problem with the 2016 campaign is the entire matter is "not ready for prime time." It's too early, the candidates mostly too weird, and the time slots to fill on TV (not to mention Internet) too vast for intelligent discussion.
2
I've got a prediction.
Based on the fact that every time the NYT attacks Donald Trump for 10 consecutive days or more, his poll numbers rise, I predict Donald Trump will win the primaries and secure the delegates required for the GOP nomination.
If the GOP establishment locks Trump out of the convention (Nate Cohn is a nerd living in his mom's basement, I'm an attorney in Washington DC and we HEAR these scenarios on Capitol Hill, so consider the source) Trump will run as a 3rd party candidate and win, because the establishment Dem/GOP vote will be split.
The Red State far right will vote for Trump.
The far left will vote for Hillary.
The election will come down to the battleground states, Hillary will win the popular vote, Trump will win the Electoral College (Hillary will not beat Trump in Texas, FL or anywhere in the South) and the GOP leadership in Congress will have a very interesting early session to decide whether they will certify the election and allow Donald Trump to be President of the United States.
Mark it down.
Based on the fact that every time the NYT attacks Donald Trump for 10 consecutive days or more, his poll numbers rise, I predict Donald Trump will win the primaries and secure the delegates required for the GOP nomination.
If the GOP establishment locks Trump out of the convention (Nate Cohn is a nerd living in his mom's basement, I'm an attorney in Washington DC and we HEAR these scenarios on Capitol Hill, so consider the source) Trump will run as a 3rd party candidate and win, because the establishment Dem/GOP vote will be split.
The Red State far right will vote for Trump.
The far left will vote for Hillary.
The election will come down to the battleground states, Hillary will win the popular vote, Trump will win the Electoral College (Hillary will not beat Trump in Texas, FL or anywhere in the South) and the GOP leadership in Congress will have a very interesting early session to decide whether they will certify the election and allow Donald Trump to be President of the United States.
Mark it down.
5
If Trump runs as an independent he pulls very little votes from the Democratic side, where he is widely loathed. He splits the GOP vote and Hillary is elected, despite being loathed by the 'far left' as you put it. It's '92 all over again, with another Clinton in the White House.
For a DC attorney with his finger on the supposed pulse, you're way off the mark. But it's not like a lawyer has ever been guilty of hubris.
For a DC attorney with his finger on the supposed pulse, you're way off the mark. But it's not like a lawyer has ever been guilty of hubris.
3
Trump as an independent gets to run against the entire political establishment. South Korea is a long way from the District.
Do you know how low the percentages of voter turnout have been over the last 50 years? America has one of the lowest voter participation rates in the industrialized world.
Trump gets millions of votes from people who have not voted and do not trust the establishment. Your entire premise relies on the establishment. That's thin ice and you're wearing heavy boots.
Do you know how low the percentages of voter turnout have been over the last 50 years? America has one of the lowest voter participation rates in the industrialized world.
Trump gets millions of votes from people who have not voted and do not trust the establishment. Your entire premise relies on the establishment. That's thin ice and you're wearing heavy boots.
4
How many bets did you lose on Marine Le Pen?
4
These are the craziest comments I have ever read for a NYT story. This Trump thing is a virus - it should be analyzed like a public health problem.
20
Mistook this for the 538 guy and thought if so his reputation would not survive this cycle. But see that was another Nate, doubtless a more cautious one, this year is not like prior cycles. I spoke to a Trump supporter last Friday.
I think a substantial motivation behind his supporters is the destruction of the current GOP which they see as having played them for fools.
I think a substantial motivation behind his supporters is the destruction of the current GOP which they see as having played them for fools.
8
Although Trump does relatively poorly in a 1-on-1 primary, he's running against a whole clown car full of opponents. As long as they split the anti-Trump vote, Trump wins.
Will the field be narrowed? Probably not much. Reality isn't relevant to these guys. These clowns are already demonstrably delusional, as none other than perhaps Kasich and Graham are remotely qualified for the job.
Will the field be narrowed? Probably not much. Reality isn't relevant to these guys. These clowns are already demonstrably delusional, as none other than perhaps Kasich and Graham are remotely qualified for the job.
5
Numerically, with 41% in the polls, even if there were only two other candidates, he would probably still win, even if he didn't pick up any of the scattered remains, that could boost him a few more points.
1
Until people actually start to caucus or vote, all these polls are meaningless, and I wish the press would emphasize that point. That goes for the Democratic contest as well.
4
"Occam's razor." He is saying things Americans want to hear. And, all the whining and analyzing from the WSJ and NYT are not going to change that.
Trump 2016 - Make America Great Again!
Trump 2016 - Make America Great Again!
10
Do you really mean "Make America White again"?
5
How is Trump going to "make America great again"?
That's the question and once the answers come forth, it will be trump time for Mr. Trump.
That's the question and once the answers come forth, it will be trump time for Mr. Trump.
3
No, he's saying things that frustrated White Republicans and people who don't bother to vote anyway want to hear. You think the country that put Obama in the White House twice is going to vote for Trump? People in large cities, minorities and immigrant citizens are not voting for Trump. You know, when you alienate large swaths of people, there aren't enough left to vote for you.
The Democrats have 232 electoral votes pretty much locked up without any of the tossup states. If they win Florida, that gives them 261. They only need 9 more electoral votes from all of the other tossup states (w/ 71 electoral votes) and Obama won every one of them.
The only possible path for any Republican to win is if they win both Florida and Pennsylvania. In that case, the Dems would have to win Ohio. If they lost Ohio, they couldn't win. If they won Ohio, but lost Virginia, they'd have to win all 7 other tossup states.
And if Trump wins the nomination, not only will he lose in the general election, but he's likely to give House and Senate seats back to the Democrats. The heads of the Republican Party are apparently very worried about that.
The Democrats have 232 electoral votes pretty much locked up without any of the tossup states. If they win Florida, that gives them 261. They only need 9 more electoral votes from all of the other tossup states (w/ 71 electoral votes) and Obama won every one of them.
The only possible path for any Republican to win is if they win both Florida and Pennsylvania. In that case, the Dems would have to win Ohio. If they lost Ohio, they couldn't win. If they won Ohio, but lost Virginia, they'd have to win all 7 other tossup states.
And if Trump wins the nomination, not only will he lose in the general election, but he's likely to give House and Senate seats back to the Democrats. The heads of the Republican Party are apparently very worried about that.
10
The notion that Mr. Trump should be considered a strong front-runner based on current polls is understandable, but inconsistent with recent history.
That sounds like backwards-looking logic and I think it's time we start embracing the present and look to the future rather than the past. The times - they have a changed - a we should recognize that . . . . this ain't your Leave It To Beaver world anymore a today's leaders need to reflect the age in which the rule.
The Cold War's over, Terrorism reigns supreme, the Climate is crashing down around us, we're killing each other in the streets with the guns of our own making, the Haves have it all and leave nothing for the Nots . . . .
What kind of leader for such a world would you expect to look like? Certainly not like anyone from the past, that's for sure. Maybe people see someone like Trump as something more in sync with the present than the cliche's from the past.
That sounds like backwards-looking logic and I think it's time we start embracing the present and look to the future rather than the past. The times - they have a changed - a we should recognize that . . . . this ain't your Leave It To Beaver world anymore a today's leaders need to reflect the age in which the rule.
The Cold War's over, Terrorism reigns supreme, the Climate is crashing down around us, we're killing each other in the streets with the guns of our own making, the Haves have it all and leave nothing for the Nots . . . .
What kind of leader for such a world would you expect to look like? Certainly not like anyone from the past, that's for sure. Maybe people see someone like Trump as something more in sync with the present than the cliche's from the past.
4
Nate, aren't you the guy who predicted The Demise of the Donald after his comments about McCain about, oh, ± 20 polling points ago?
16
As crazy as Trumps seems to be, He isn’t. He’s a huckster like the used car salesman who can finance anyone. He seems to be helping poor folks when he’s actually selling them things for more than they are worth and then making exponential profits on top of that sale by having a hidden piece of the high interest loan.
As calm and mature as Cruz seems to be right now, He isn’t. Look back to Cruz first months in Congress and what we have seen of him until he went radio silent about two months ago, the man has already shown himself to be ten times as crazy as Trump seems to be at the stump. I expect there are hidden depths to that crazy not yet seen in public not unlike how reagan hid his true nature from people.
Rubio, who doesn’t seem crazy, is a foolish rube who it seems has internalized the irrational deny objective reality hang on to the fantasy of what reality is method of being a GOP pol. Watch him in an interview he does not answer the questions he always starts speaking about whatever diversionary idea or policy he wants to subvert the topic of the question with. That used to be a sure disqualifier as it indicates either deceit or mental defect. Now it goes by unacknowledged even by the interviewer. They just ask the next question as if he answered the previous one. That teaches children to accept deceit as legitimate.
What have we let the owners of the Press do to us America?
As calm and mature as Cruz seems to be right now, He isn’t. Look back to Cruz first months in Congress and what we have seen of him until he went radio silent about two months ago, the man has already shown himself to be ten times as crazy as Trump seems to be at the stump. I expect there are hidden depths to that crazy not yet seen in public not unlike how reagan hid his true nature from people.
Rubio, who doesn’t seem crazy, is a foolish rube who it seems has internalized the irrational deny objective reality hang on to the fantasy of what reality is method of being a GOP pol. Watch him in an interview he does not answer the questions he always starts speaking about whatever diversionary idea or policy he wants to subvert the topic of the question with. That used to be a sure disqualifier as it indicates either deceit or mental defect. Now it goes by unacknowledged even by the interviewer. They just ask the next question as if he answered the previous one. That teaches children to accept deceit as legitimate.
What have we let the owners of the Press do to us America?
29
Your description of Rubio's slippery evasiveness reminds me of the many reasons I respect Chris Hayes and Rachel Maddow so much. They seldom fail to point out that an interviewee has not answered the question and then ask it again, driving home the point that the first response was evasive.
We need more such journalists today.
We need more such journalists today.
1
Right now, Trump leads for several reasons--a fractured field and unseemly press attention, among them. His whole rallies sometimes are broadcast as "newsworthy." My prediction is a brokered convention, and the Republicans pull Paul Ryan out of the hat.
5
Trump can and will win because when the economy is bad and fear is to be exploited Americans will run to it in a heart beat. The fact that the Republican party Establishment does not like the fact that Trump is open in his racism and they prefer the Atwater version does not mean they will not support him if he wins the position. They will grit their teeth an go w/ it. You only need to look at Trump's tax proposals to know they will. And as they have been selling out the white non college educated population since the '80's by blaming their economic decline on AfricanAmericans and "others" nothing will have changed except it is less Atwater and more Wallace.
6
Donald Trump's rise is one of the most remarkable and revealing stories of my 49 year-old life. The fact that millions of Americans don't seem to care that he does little more than offer up vacuous, sweeping generalizations with zero viable solutions is truly remarkable. In a country obsessed with media and money, Trump is the wealthy Chicken Little who is charming enough to get away with attacking the people behind our broken political system. All this despite the fact that he's a glowing example of American at its worst. But you got to hand it to him for figuring out the magic formula; fear and hate, rinse and repeat. Fear and hate, rinse and repeat...
73
Hasn't America always operated on fear-mongering and hate?
I figured that when I wasn't even out of my teens.
I stopped listening a long time ago.
I figured that when I wasn't even out of my teens.
I stopped listening a long time ago.
3
Trump looks brilliant because of stupidity of the current administration: our glorious Homeland security doesn't bother to check social media when processing applicants for immigration. Trump's proposal to stop this madness temporarily and fix the process of admission looks intelligent to me. I really don't care about his style of presenting himself. I am rather tired of self-righteous "visionary" at the helm who shows off with pathetic speeches and does almost nothing to protect this country.
4
If you like your Doctor you can keep him/her. If you like you healthcare plan, you can keep it.
3
I am astonished at how eager my fellow commenters are to assert their views with so much certainty.
In any event, there are so many diff views here that at least one of them has to be correct
If that happens will that person, 6 months from now, be seen as lucky or wise ?
In any event, there are so many diff views here that at least one of them has to be correct
If that happens will that person, 6 months from now, be seen as lucky or wise ?
3
More comments about Bernie - that he is more electable.
If that were the case, why isnt he so far ahead in the Democratic primary? I mean really, if he cant muster a significant challenge among Democrats, how is he supposed to garner votes from Republicans and even independents?
Because he cant. He's a socialist. America wont elect a socialist. Not even the Democratic Party will go that far - yet he is "electable"?
If that were the case, why isnt he so far ahead in the Democratic primary? I mean really, if he cant muster a significant challenge among Democrats, how is he supposed to garner votes from Republicans and even independents?
Because he cant. He's a socialist. America wont elect a socialist. Not even the Democratic Party will go that far - yet he is "electable"?
6
Hate to break it to you, but we have been a combination socialist-capitalist country since the New Deal. Now, if we can just stop spending trillions on unwinnable nation-building (destroying) wars, and get control of profiteering in the healthcare and retirement fund industries, maybe we can balance the budget.
7
Sanders is doing much better than you could ever know. Of course, you cant know that if all your sources are right wing or mainstream media like the NYT.
4
The problem is that labels count and even if a miracle happened and Bernie were to win the nomination, the Republican candidate will use "socialism" against him. It doesn't matter what it really means - it matters what the masses think it means. The same masses who don't want their Social Security touched, who use Medicare (or Medicaid), whose grandchildren attend public schools and use the public library systems as well as those who are or were employed by the Federal, State and local governments will think of Bernie as some kind of un-American radical because they don't think of themselves as supporting socialism, no matter how much capitalism has failed them or how part of the socialist aspects of our society they actually are. The Republican candidate will demonize Bernie and it will work. And that's aside from any issues of anti-semitism.
I'm a Bernie supporter and I've contributed money to his campaign, but there's no way he could become President in this country. It would be George McGovern all over again (not that McGovern was labeled a socialist): he'd be lucky to win two states. McGovern won only Massachusetts and DC and received only 17 electoral votes (he also won in NYC, not that that matters). He did receive 37.5% of the popular vote.
I'm a Bernie supporter and I've contributed money to his campaign, but there's no way he could become President in this country. It would be George McGovern all over again (not that McGovern was labeled a socialist): he'd be lucky to win two states. McGovern won only Massachusetts and DC and received only 17 electoral votes (he also won in NYC, not that that matters). He did receive 37.5% of the popular vote.
2
12/1/2015 10:30 am
In a match up against Hillary, Trump might do very well in a debate.
His political incorrectness against her pc might reveal pc to be the bankrupt theism that it is.
One relishes the thought of his asking her how it is that she earned the right to be the nominee; apart from riding Bill Clinton’s coat tails.
Bill Clinton once said a high school tough once punched him in the nose, when he threw some big words at him in an argument. After that he always spoke straightforwardly.
PC flows from the imposition of women’s censorship. The biggest handicap most women face in negotiating is that they never were punched in the nose in a high school spat. Somehow that gets a person’s attention. Note - this is no endorsement of battering women – but an observation of the princess syndrome
All the book learning in the world can’t begin to teach the realities of life, that comes in the school yard. If book learning could I’d vote for IBM’s Watson for President. Barring that, Trump seems a plausible choice; as right now PC prevents honest discussions of reality and working out solutions in light of reality. Trump is the needed remedy to political correctness.
In a match up against Hillary, Trump might do very well in a debate.
His political incorrectness against her pc might reveal pc to be the bankrupt theism that it is.
One relishes the thought of his asking her how it is that she earned the right to be the nominee; apart from riding Bill Clinton’s coat tails.
Bill Clinton once said a high school tough once punched him in the nose, when he threw some big words at him in an argument. After that he always spoke straightforwardly.
PC flows from the imposition of women’s censorship. The biggest handicap most women face in negotiating is that they never were punched in the nose in a high school spat. Somehow that gets a person’s attention. Note - this is no endorsement of battering women – but an observation of the princess syndrome
All the book learning in the world can’t begin to teach the realities of life, that comes in the school yard. If book learning could I’d vote for IBM’s Watson for President. Barring that, Trump seems a plausible choice; as right now PC prevents honest discussions of reality and working out solutions in light of reality. Trump is the needed remedy to political correctness.
6
More people will vote for Trump than will admit it at their cocktail parties.
6
Back in my schoolyard, the Principal and teachers made sure we learned that having manners was good for both boys and girls. Same thing we learned in Scouts, Little League, and in Church League Basketball. We even learned that in the Marines. Sure there was an occasional bloody nose among the boys, usually inflicted by, or at, a bully. Today's Republicans confuse being rude with toughness.
10
"One relishes the thought of his asking her how it is that she earned the right to be the nominee"
Well, Hillary Clinton did serve as a U.S. Senator from New York, and she did serve as a secretary of state. Compare that to Trump - all he ever did was "fire" people on his "reality" show. I, for one, think Clinton would absolutely welcome a race against Donald Trump next fall. I gotta think she'd like her odds.
Well, Hillary Clinton did serve as a U.S. Senator from New York, and she did serve as a secretary of state. Compare that to Trump - all he ever did was "fire" people on his "reality" show. I, for one, think Clinton would absolutely welcome a race against Donald Trump next fall. I gotta think she'd like her odds.
13
Yes Nate. On the one hand … and on the other hand …
You are beginning to sound like an economist Nate.
The power of Trump appears to know no bounds!
3
The Republican race bolsters the argument that nothing is impossible. How? I was convinced that there was no one who could make Donald Trump look good. And what happened? Along comes Ted Cruz. Suddenly, Trump is a statesman. (Well not really. He should be made to answer for this recent wet kiss to Alex Jones, who claims the Newtown shooting was a hoax. Does it get any sicker?)
6
This is the same guy who wrote a very condescending article in which he purported to instruct Christians about the “tangle” of inconsistencies in their religion, and to advance the shop-worn old proposition that Islam is morally equivalent to Christianity.
Apparently, he wants the Islam to prevail against Christianity, or at the very least to have an equal chance at it. So I guess it makes perfect sense that he would be opposed to Trump, the only candidate that has made it his primary goal to protect America from Islamic brutality.
Apparently, he wants the Islam to prevail against Christianity, or at the very least to have an equal chance at it. So I guess it makes perfect sense that he would be opposed to Trump, the only candidate that has made it his primary goal to protect America from Islamic brutality.
2
Whether you like him or not, one positive aspect of his candidacy may be the end of "gotcha" journalism. The press latches on to a poorly spoken molehill and turns it into a mountain. Remember Jimmy Carter speaking of "ethnic purity" when discussing neighborhood enclaves.
Trump just barrels thru, doesn't cave in, doesn't have an arm of spinners in a "war room" to explain away his comments. For that, he should be congratulated.
In fact, Bernie Sanders behaves in a similar way. Its refreshing to see a candidate speak his mind without testing his views in front of a focus group.
Trump just barrels thru, doesn't cave in, doesn't have an arm of spinners in a "war room" to explain away his comments. For that, he should be congratulated.
In fact, Bernie Sanders behaves in a similar way. Its refreshing to see a candidate speak his mind without testing his views in front of a focus group.
19
Trump is going to drop his run for the Republic Nominee before Iowa and run as an Independent. He won't want to go through the process of losing the first two states. His whole campaign is based on the fact that he is "Winning".
3
Donald Trump is a Dummy created by Bill & Hillary Clinton. It is a calculated and methodical move by Clintons, because Donald Trump is not "Electable". We need to find out if Donald Trump is doing this against any payment, current or future made by Clintons. Donald Trump need to go back in Germany, the land of his Freddy, the Granddaddy's land and help Angela Markel to deal with current refugee crisis in Europe. As a descendant of early European Settlors, this is his duty, he owe it to his Freddy, the Granddaddy, who crossed the Atlantic in 1890's. GO back Donald
2
If Mr. Trump dodges all these obstacles and makes it as the candidate, it will help to prove his claims that he gets things done. Not being a true conservative is a positive as most of the country is more moderate therefore he will get more swing voters.
7
Both Trump and Hillary say what they think people want to hear. But look at three key factors: character, experience and agenda. If you fail them both on the first, Hillary still wins on the second, and, subjectively, on the third, based on what Trump has said he would do on key issues and what I believe Hillary would do.
3
I'm college educated, Jewish and support Donald Trump. I never voted for a Republican candidate before. It's so amusing to watch the establishment go mad as they try to brow beat Trump supporters into thinking we're racist and uneducated. Trump has support across all members of our country and will be the next president!
31
With your background, I cannot seriously believe you would vote for trump.
It is genuinely frightening. Even more terrifying that anyone would support this racist blowhard.
And you think he can handle Putin? Wow, I will have nightmares after reading this comment.
It is genuinely frightening. Even more terrifying that anyone would support this racist blowhard.
And you think he can handle Putin? Wow, I will have nightmares after reading this comment.
7
I don't want to get personal, but your self-description requires an explanation. For example, is being Jewish affecting your judgment re Trump and how so? I feel strongly that his followers' political ignorance is key to their support. Since you are "college-educated," that fact might scotch my hypothesis. Or, one might want to know what your degree was in and to what college you went.
4
There are some very smart people who went to the best colleges but they lack common sense. If anything Trump supporters have common sense and they are starved to hear someone tell the truth. Plain and simple.
5
I never put much stock in how, say, the New York Yankees fared in the past few years against the Boston Red Sox. Every year is different. Precedent is important in our courts but not our elections. These are different times and the voters are in a anti-establishment mood, especially in the Republican party. I also take issue with the assertion that he faces weak competition. There are three governors with either successful or winning records or both, several prominent Senators, a prominent neurosurgeon who had his several months of fame and a well-known female CEO. It's very hard to predict, especially the future. Where did I hear that?
2
The article mentions that well-educated people have said they won't vote for Trump. The red states keep cutting funding for education from pre-school to the universities. Oklahoma cut funding 28% for public schools, the largest cut in the nation. The Texas Republican Party included the end to critical thinking in schools as part of their platform. We reap what we sow. If the red states really want an uneducated population they're going to have to deal with the public backing game show hosts like Trump.
14
In other elections, one's religiosity was always under the telescope with Dems professing a belief in God and assurance that they are indeed Christians and the Republicans bringing God into nearly everything.
And then Trump arrives.
And we see Americans for their true selves- all the religiosity was a cover-up for hating "others" and Trump isn't required to have the religiosity - he just brings is hate front and center and Americans flock to him.
It is really remarkable. In July, a friend told me that Trump would be the Republican nominee and I said he was crazy because Trump wasn't religious enough for the conservatives. He said "just watch" and he was right.
And then Trump arrives.
And we see Americans for their true selves- all the religiosity was a cover-up for hating "others" and Trump isn't required to have the religiosity - he just brings is hate front and center and Americans flock to him.
It is really remarkable. In July, a friend told me that Trump would be the Republican nominee and I said he was crazy because Trump wasn't religious enough for the conservatives. He said "just watch" and he was right.
25
What's really remarkable is that we've been so paralyzed by political correctness that common sense is viewed as "hate."
3
What "hate"? Who has Trump said that he hates?
I don't hate anyone. It is not "hate" to want secure borders and orderly immigration.
It is not "hate" to be careful about admitted immigrants from KNOWN terrorist nations.
I don't hate anyone. It is not "hate" to want secure borders and orderly immigration.
It is not "hate" to be careful about admitted immigrants from KNOWN terrorist nations.
3
Trump could win- except if he doesn't win. Penetrating.
16
In a NYT column yesterday, Sylvie Kaufman compared Trump to "moderate Republican" candidates. I wondered if she had been asleep all these years.
2
How many times has the NYT predicted Trumps fall? Instead he continues to be propelled by articles like this one. Over the past week there hasn't been a day with less than four headline articles about Trump on your home page. And you wonder what keeps him going.
25
Admittedly, the GOP race this year has more vividly colorful characters than usual. But this is the time of EVERY American Presidential primary season when the far right, the far left (and sometimes an unrealistic libertarian) are allowed to raise their voices and delude themselves of the potential promise for their visions of the country. This leads them to believe they are part of the national political process. Practically speaking, they are not in any meaningful way. But they do create plenty of fodder for the news media during the early primary season. Then the dust settles in ways Nate has historically described, and the far left and far right are forgotten, are disillusioned, and then often times don't come out to vote in November's general election.
4
I think the one of the main reasons that Trump and Bernie have been popular in this election cycle is they appear to offer something different, mainly to combat income inequality. One of the main points of both has been our trade deals that have decimated the middle class. These issues are not on the NYT radar, just look at the exhibit on where candidates stand -- no mention of the trade deals which is a huge part of Bernie's and Trump's platform.
I think being in New York the NYT might be slightly out of sync with mainstream America, otherwise trade and off-shoring would be a much more important issue. And maybe that is why there is a disconnect on why there seems to be more staying power than anyone could have anticipated.
I think being in New York the NYT might be slightly out of sync with mainstream America, otherwise trade and off-shoring would be a much more important issue. And maybe that is why there is a disconnect on why there seems to be more staying power than anyone could have anticipated.
26
Bernie and Trump have virtually nothing in common.
Bernie has a long career in public office characterized by consistency and a keen sense of justice. Trump has a long career in using inherited money and outlandish publicity-garnering behavior to make less money than he could have by simply investing his inheritance.
Bernie can cite chapter and verse, percentages and shades of gray, on a host of pressing issues. Trump traffics in sweeping generalities and hopelessly unspecific blather aimed at voters' guts, not their minds.
Yes, they both talk about bad trade deals, and good for them for doing so, but do you really think Trump gives a sewer rat's patootie for the economic well-being of struggling middle-class folks? He develops housing and golf resorts for millionaires, and casinos that further fleece low-income fools.
Bernie has a long career in public office characterized by consistency and a keen sense of justice. Trump has a long career in using inherited money and outlandish publicity-garnering behavior to make less money than he could have by simply investing his inheritance.
Bernie can cite chapter and verse, percentages and shades of gray, on a host of pressing issues. Trump traffics in sweeping generalities and hopelessly unspecific blather aimed at voters' guts, not their minds.
Yes, they both talk about bad trade deals, and good for them for doing so, but do you really think Trump gives a sewer rat's patootie for the economic well-being of struggling middle-class folks? He develops housing and golf resorts for millionaires, and casinos that further fleece low-income fools.
1
The problem is that as we sit back and wait for Mr. Trump to fade, his words are causing real harm to people. Mosques are being attacked. People are being abused and even shot. This is a very dark time for American Muslims, worse than 9/11.
10
Do you think some of this anti-Muslim sentiments has something to do with over a hundred dead bodies in Paris and over a dozen in California? Ya think?
5
Mosques are being attacked not because of words of Mr Trump but because of actions by Mr. Farook.
3
Trump is giving permission, to adults who know better and properly suppress impulses to do violence to innocent strangers, to let go that adult restraint and indulge the unthoughtout feelings that lean towad acting out in anger.
5
Nate Cohn is an astute analyst.
My own reason for believing that Trump must fail is that he violates the proprieties. Does this in the name of discarding "political correctness," whatever that may mean. You don't violate the proprieties with insults, personal attacks, bullying, dishonest exaggerations, empty threats, vainglorious boasting & naked self-interest -- and then succeed.
My own reason for believing that Trump must fail is that he violates the proprieties. Does this in the name of discarding "political correctness," whatever that may mean. You don't violate the proprieties with insults, personal attacks, bullying, dishonest exaggerations, empty threats, vainglorious boasting & naked self-interest -- and then succeed.
9
Love the comments here proclaiming Trump is a joke and cant win, yet they advocate for Bernie the socialist in the same comment.
6
Bud,
Mr. Sanders has decades of actual, verifiable legislative experience. He's worked in Congress to foster real change for this Nation.
Mr. Trump has never held office, he can not lead a party or a Nation forward on the basis of innuendo, bravado and outright lies.
Mr. Sanders has decades of actual, verifiable legislative experience. He's worked in Congress to foster real change for this Nation.
Mr. Trump has never held office, he can not lead a party or a Nation forward on the basis of innuendo, bravado and outright lies.
16
Nice pivot, Bud. You do realize that according to the polls, Bernie is actually the most electable. Trump? Not so much. By the way, you may want to consider looking up the word 'socialist' if you're going to make that claim. Because Sanders is hardly what someone who knows such things would call him.
7
You may want to look up his own website - he refers to himself as a socialist - proudly.
2
I think the stage is set for Mitt Romney (the new and improved candidate depicted in a recent documentary) to ride in on his white steed and clinch the nomination. Just sayin....
2
Probably won't win - I guess this is meant to comfort concerns. However, how comfortable would you feel if you were told that you only have a 10% chance of having metastatic cancer. Trump might not be as bad as metastatic cancer, but Cruz is.
6
They both are.
2
In fact Trump likely will win the nomination. Wishful thinking will not turn this around. The polls show the trend of Trump heading into Republican majority choice.
2
What REALLY motivates Trump is not spending tens/hundreds of millions of dollars of his own money on his campaign. He must do a jig in his Fifth Avenue penthouse every night when he thinks of all the money his opponents are spending compared to the free advertising he receives from all of the "news" outlets.
10
"The good news for Mr. Trump is that the opposition is flawed enough to entertain such an outcome." Flawed is an extremely mild term for Hillary, a wooden campaigner with all the charisma of the common cold who will say anything to anybody to get her hands on the levers of power.
10
Jordan: I think the writer stating the "opposition is flawed" meant the rest of the GOP line-up! They are all pretty flawed!
2
As opposed to Trump? Yeah, we get it, you hate Hillary. But you can do better than that vacuous slam if you're going to try and make a point.
2
Who cares if he has a chance to win. He increases ratings and web clicks for the networks and web sites that cover his every word. That's the bottom line, now isn't it?
4
The Deep State isn't going to let any candidate upset the financially profitable apple cart. They want someone who is beholden to them, who owes them, who they gave significant monetary support to. Candidates who will back their policies and goals, and who will do nothing, except blovate some talking points, about how they are going to change things for the better, or how they will help "the little folk" - the average American - but will keep the status quo as is, and stacked in their favor. That is not The Donald. It is definitely not Bernie. Elizabeth Warren wouldn't be allowed to come ANYwhere close to the White House, nor would any other "populist" candidate or "progressive" who was actually going to do something for the American people. Bernie was "Wellstoned" by his own party with supposedly anti-black rhetoric. So was Warren - pushed out of running by being bribed with a more important party position - but neutered so she wouldn't do anything against the elites or Wall Street and the Banks. The Donald has been resurrected as a clownish version Barry Goldwater - full of bombast, but signifying nothing. The rest of the repub's are there as "filler" - ready to jump into a new money-making role as soon as they are given the signal to bail from the running. Book deals and talking head jobs await them. Anyone who doubts this is delusional - it is The Hillary Brand® who has been given the nod and blessing of the powerful. She owes them and they own her. It's all a con game.
14
When Donald Trump will lose, the whole world will take a breath of peace. He is a monster not a candidate, who always talk to hurt someone, he is not a human being, but a ghost who always tries to scare his opponents, he is not a contender but a loser who lost his Taj Mahal, casinos' business and eventually filed for chapter 11.
7
Actually, he got out of Atlantic City before the casino business there collapsed and used the bankruptcy laws to minimize his losses. The man may be many things buy loser is not one of them.
2
Mr. Trump is the perfect candidate for our era of shallow thinkers, angry voters and weak leadership.
First, he understands the media (he has everyone's attention even though his ideas are so bombastic they seem almost surreal). No other candidate is nearly as expert at controlling and dominating the media and none has enjoyed as much time in the limelight. To use a football term, he understands the value of "time of possession." He literally sucks all the oxygen out of the room, leaving more timid candidates to wither. Which is why Ted Cruz, the only other candidate as brash (and just as shallow) is his main competition. This advantage is not going away--ever.
Second, he has hit a very dense vein of citizen anger with weak, vacillating leadership. The vein may be narrow now, but it is unbelievably dense and will likely expand, not contract. That vein is occupied by people who value strong leadership, decisive decision making, confidence to the point of brashness and an unwillingness to back down. They don't want another professor president. The fear and paranoia in our citizenry caused by unpredictable and violent acts in the Middle East, Europe and even in our own country, fuels his popularity. That advantage is not going away--ever.
So like it or not, Mr. Trump will continue his unbelievable buoyancy in popularity. All the way to the White House. What is even more frightening is that our political system can't produce a candidate that can stop him.
First, he understands the media (he has everyone's attention even though his ideas are so bombastic they seem almost surreal). No other candidate is nearly as expert at controlling and dominating the media and none has enjoyed as much time in the limelight. To use a football term, he understands the value of "time of possession." He literally sucks all the oxygen out of the room, leaving more timid candidates to wither. Which is why Ted Cruz, the only other candidate as brash (and just as shallow) is his main competition. This advantage is not going away--ever.
Second, he has hit a very dense vein of citizen anger with weak, vacillating leadership. The vein may be narrow now, but it is unbelievably dense and will likely expand, not contract. That vein is occupied by people who value strong leadership, decisive decision making, confidence to the point of brashness and an unwillingness to back down. They don't want another professor president. The fear and paranoia in our citizenry caused by unpredictable and violent acts in the Middle East, Europe and even in our own country, fuels his popularity. That advantage is not going away--ever.
So like it or not, Mr. Trump will continue his unbelievable buoyancy in popularity. All the way to the White House. What is even more frightening is that our political system can't produce a candidate that can stop him.
5
Mr Trump is a candidate of angry white people. Look for roots of the anger in the 1965 Immigration law.
I have never before seen such a tidal wave of hate and fear emanating from the media towards a major candidate...since the media is funded by the same big corporations that use foreign labor to depress wages and drive up profits, then I now know what I need to know.....Trump is against the corporate establishment....and we american citizens desperately need a president who will fight against the corporations and their lapdog media
18
That same "tidal wave of hate and fear" is emanating FROM Trump.
5
The media is all he's got, it's why he's in the lead. And he's the epitome of a capitalist who's actually done relatively poorly with the incredible wealth that was handed to him. Wow, talk about missing the big picture. Truly amazing.
6
Umm, just curious . . . isn't Trump part of the corporate establishment? Or am I misunderstanding both his background and business holdings, and the idea of the corporate establishment.
2
a guy like jon huntsman is looking pretty darn good right about now
9
“In a camp like this, one draws one's menials from a small and brackish pool.”
--- E.B. Farnum on the television series Deadwood.
Look at Trump.
Look at our entire crop of current Presidential candidates. Second or third rate people every
one of them.
I am not talking here about successful people. That some of them are.
I am talking here about first-rate men or women in the way that Frederick Douglass described
self-made men in a famous speech in 1859.
“Self-made men […] are the men who owe little or nothing to birth, relationship, friendly surroundings; to wealth inherited or to early approved means of education; who are what they are, without the aid of any of the favoring conditions by which other men usually rise in the world and achieve great results.”
We have such people in this country. It would not be difficult to find them. We should.
The Times today has obituaries of two people -- Henry M. Rowan and Lillian Vernon -- who might have fit the bill.
--- E.B. Farnum on the television series Deadwood.
Look at Trump.
Look at our entire crop of current Presidential candidates. Second or third rate people every
one of them.
I am not talking here about successful people. That some of them are.
I am talking here about first-rate men or women in the way that Frederick Douglass described
self-made men in a famous speech in 1859.
“Self-made men […] are the men who owe little or nothing to birth, relationship, friendly surroundings; to wealth inherited or to early approved means of education; who are what they are, without the aid of any of the favoring conditions by which other men usually rise in the world and achieve great results.”
We have such people in this country. It would not be difficult to find them. We should.
The Times today has obituaries of two people -- Henry M. Rowan and Lillian Vernon -- who might have fit the bill.
5
I am moderate and no Trump fan, in fact I strongly dislike the man. He is a modern P.T. Barnum who would be a better freak-show barker than the POTUS.
That being said it may just do well for the left, the cosmopolitan big-city New York types to understand why Trump is so popular. No, its no because the people who like him are peasants who are too ignorant to know what is best, but rather its fear. Fear is driving the Trump support and it is rational if you are very conservative. The US has and will always be a place in flux. That however, does not mean that the people like radical change. Under the Democrats during Obamas term the left base, not Obama so much himself, has tracked hard left culturally.
To conservatives there is no doubt a culture-war being waged and now people are being told extreme things like, this man is a woman and if you do not agree we will call you a bigot and more so we will use the state to marginalize you out of the debate.
To help the big-city cosmopolitan types understand the fear that is driving support for Trump it would help if the left actually employed its legendary empathy and tried to see it from their oppositions shoes by imagining how so many on the left would feel if the Dems were on the ropes, the cultural issues that the Dems have built their image around were being destroyed and there was no real hope for the future...how many would be talking about leaving the US? Want to defeat Trump address the fear.
That being said it may just do well for the left, the cosmopolitan big-city New York types to understand why Trump is so popular. No, its no because the people who like him are peasants who are too ignorant to know what is best, but rather its fear. Fear is driving the Trump support and it is rational if you are very conservative. The US has and will always be a place in flux. That however, does not mean that the people like radical change. Under the Democrats during Obamas term the left base, not Obama so much himself, has tracked hard left culturally.
To conservatives there is no doubt a culture-war being waged and now people are being told extreme things like, this man is a woman and if you do not agree we will call you a bigot and more so we will use the state to marginalize you out of the debate.
To help the big-city cosmopolitan types understand the fear that is driving support for Trump it would help if the left actually employed its legendary empathy and tried to see it from their oppositions shoes by imagining how so many on the left would feel if the Dems were on the ropes, the cultural issues that the Dems have built their image around were being destroyed and there was no real hope for the future...how many would be talking about leaving the US? Want to defeat Trump address the fear.
4
The reason these Trump fans think they are on the ropes, with their cultural issues destroyed and feel no real hope for the future - is that they enable these right wing buffoons with their votes. They have only themselves to blame. But who cares about the oft-repeated GOP mantra of individual responsibility when you can find a way to blame liberals?
7
The shift in cultural values has very little to do with Obama - in fact, he is more of a result than a cause. Emerging generations, influenced by an evolving set of media influences, have grown up more open-minded as well as having been exposed to a variety of types of individuals and have embraced degrees of equality and tolerance that are unprecedented in this country. Those who are afraid of these changes tend to cluster behind the current crop of Republican candidates. That's understandable.
5
What about Cruz? He scares me a hundred times more than Trump. If Cruz takes Trump's place that could very well be the downfall of our country.
30
Sounds like the author is rationalizing his fear and disbelief that Trump could win. Methinks he doth protest too much.
4
Whoever eventually gets the nomination,next November doesn't look,to me, very encouraging for the GOP;if it's someone other than Trump his most zealous supporters may reject the nominee,even if Trump doesn't make good on his threat to run as an independent;if Trump or Cruz get the nomination, a sizable portion of usually GOP voters may find either too extreme to vote for.While most of them may never vote for Hillary or Sanders they may just not vote at all.
The GOP leadership is most to blame for this. For a long time now they've played divide and conquer to get voters to choose them over Democrats.And now those chickens have come how to roost in the GOP,which has been conquered by it's divisions,reminding me of the Democrats in 1968 and 1972.
The GOP leadership is most to blame for this. For a long time now they've played divide and conquer to get voters to choose them over Democrats.And now those chickens have come how to roost in the GOP,which has been conquered by it's divisions,reminding me of the Democrats in 1968 and 1972.
3
Interesting headline but several points are missed in the body.
Trump is leading not just in the national polls but also in all the state polls with the exception of Iowa where he is a close second.
A 51-49 matchup in a one-on-one race this early doesn't mean he will lose - this actually means that he is very competitive.
Frank Luntz's focus group on CBS showed that the Trump supporters are going to stick with him - contrary to the assertion that they may not show up on the day of the polls.
Finally, he appeals to many blue collared white male Dems and Independents who would rather not vote for either party ordinarily and who may be opposed to a Hillary candidacy. These new voters would only vote for Trump, they say. This could mean he is viable in the general election too.
Trump is leading not just in the national polls but also in all the state polls with the exception of Iowa where he is a close second.
A 51-49 matchup in a one-on-one race this early doesn't mean he will lose - this actually means that he is very competitive.
Frank Luntz's focus group on CBS showed that the Trump supporters are going to stick with him - contrary to the assertion that they may not show up on the day of the polls.
Finally, he appeals to many blue collared white male Dems and Independents who would rather not vote for either party ordinarily and who may be opposed to a Hillary candidacy. These new voters would only vote for Trump, they say. This could mean he is viable in the general election too.
4
Donald Trump is a brilliant orchestrator. What he continues to do is to address the true concerns of Americans; unlike his running mates who still holds onto issues that are not in sync with what's truly of concern to Americans. The GOP has been so out of touch with Americans in this age. Gay marriage for example is becoming widely accepted. The ones that don't think so are the GOP. Donald Trump's success is irrelevant regarding the chances of the Republicans winning in this next election. Their ideas are "has been" and it's been proven again and again that they are not in touch with the American People.
4
You do not speak for the American people. Trump is not qualified to be POTUS.
Trump's "success" is he is a business man who has gone bankrupt 4 times.
Trump's "success" is he is a business man who has gone bankrupt 4 times.
4
In this case, a "brilliant orchestrator" is not a leader, he is merely a carnival barker for a reality show - which is all Trump has shown he can do. As for "true concerns of Americans" - what nonsense. If Americans truly believe that all Mexican immigrants are rapists, and we should ban immigrants based on their religion, then there is no hope for us. Thankfully, we are better than that.
1
Wow, another day where Bernie Sanders is nonexistent for the big media.
27
Be grateful. I was bracing to read that "how Trump could win" was if Sanders were the opposition, but I think MSM has pretty much dispensed with the idea that there's a contest for the Democratic nomination. When they speak of the party, they mean only one person. The fix is in; so much for the value of our votes.
2
Great article. Trump espouses the views and attitudes of a significant part of the Republican party. But, will that translate into votes? Right now maybe he's more entertainment than someone people will actually cast a ballot for. But, if Rubio is the candidate to watch, then the NY Times better get the word out on this guy who is wholly OWNED by a Florida oligarch. How can someone like that become President?
4
I'm curious to see how Trump will make his inevitable exit. Will he play the role of party unifier, or sore loser?
2
He will go out in a hail of insults and foaming at the mouth!
2
It is Trump vs. a pack of cookie-cutter choirboys. It is no contest, charisma-wise.
3
Trump has the charisma of sand paper. UK has a petition to keep him out of the country. Netanyahu didn't want to meet w/ him and disagrees on Trump's policies. and uber conservative Marine Le Pen says she disagrees with Trump as well.
Charisma? Maybe for those who have to resort to name calling and insults to get their point across.
Charisma? Maybe for those who have to resort to name calling and insults to get their point across.
2
"High floor but a low ceiling"? What does this mean? The phrase is used multiple times in your column, but the concept is never explained. Your editor should have asked you to do so.
2
meaning his poll numbers are the highest in the GOP race right now, but a significant number of voters in the general election will elect a ham sandwich before pulling the lever for Trump.
5
One could just as easily write "low floor" (soft poll numbers) and "high ceiling" (difficult bar to election). The phrase is still shoddy and meaningless unless explained. Editorial attention needed.
1
Using a rational analysis of past trends and patterns just doesn't seem to be a plausible approach, from my point of view, given the extreme and irrational polarization in our political environment.
We can't attribute Trump's rise solely to the uneducated. There's far too many GOP voters, whether they will admit or not, that will fall into step if Trump's lead stays solid through the first primaries.
Most highly educated, and otherwise smart, GOP voters that I know have a rabid and baseless hate of Obama and the left (and who eagerly repeat every Obama/Clinton conspiracy theory that comes their way) and will, most likely, throw their lot into the Trump campaign versus risk another Democrat in the White House.
Think not? Think Sarah Palin.
We can't attribute Trump's rise solely to the uneducated. There's far too many GOP voters, whether they will admit or not, that will fall into step if Trump's lead stays solid through the first primaries.
Most highly educated, and otherwise smart, GOP voters that I know have a rabid and baseless hate of Obama and the left (and who eagerly repeat every Obama/Clinton conspiracy theory that comes their way) and will, most likely, throw their lot into the Trump campaign versus risk another Democrat in the White House.
Think not? Think Sarah Palin.
2
Trump has caught the fancy of the conservative right who feel disfranchised by today's so called politicians. He is the voice of the "folk", of the GOP masses, who are the cannon-fodder, the cattle outside the slaughterhouse, serenely chewing the cud ... those to whom things are done, in contrast to those who have executive will and intelligence. His rhetoric is seemingly innocent of politics to which there is a collective responsive sigh of ‘alas’! But where and when the politics inevitably crops up is when we take this eventually to be the typical sentiment of american society at large and there is no more serious voice that stands higher than Trump's, then we are by the same token saying something very definite about that society
1
It seems odd for the NYT to state that it is too soon to declare Trump the Repub. front-runner when it has no trouble at all claiming the same for Clinton - and has for months.
15
God save this country from Trump, Cruz, Rubio and this rest of this rabble.
3
Are you kidding? These buffoons are fruits of the unconstitutional legislation that decreed the US to be "under God".
6
Which of the candidates aren't among "this rabble," Amelie?
Rex R New York Pending Approval
There is a paradox to Mr. Trump's appeal; highest among Republicans, but lowest among minorities. Without the minority vote, which he has irrevocably alienated, he cannot win against the Democrat nominee. Once this is realized, the Republicans will be forced to nominate a candidate who has a chance to win the presidency with votes from Muslims, Blacks, Latinos, Chinese, and non-minority women.
There is a paradox to Mr. Trump's appeal; highest among Republicans, but lowest among minorities. Without the minority vote, which he has irrevocably alienated, he cannot win against the Democrat nominee. Once this is realized, the Republicans will be forced to nominate a candidate who has a chance to win the presidency with votes from Muslims, Blacks, Latinos, Chinese, and non-minority women.
2
Every time some liberal reporter publishes an article claiming Trump has this low ceiling, another poll comes out the day the article is written - showing Trumps ceiling going up another 5 or 6 points. Yesterday and Today see Trump at 41% and 38% respectively - over 20 points ahead of the nearest competitor.
Wishfull thinking is turning into panic and desperation from liberal media outlets.
Quite fun to watch.
Wishfull thinking is turning into panic and desperation from liberal media outlets.
Quite fun to watch.
6
" panic and desperation and fear" is Trump's platform.
6
More idle leaf raking about polls. Of course polls are wrong; in 2014, the results of polls was laughable, and yet this article's basis is speculation about polls and previous years results about front runners.
the media, and especially the mass media such as the NYT relies almost exclusively on reporting on polls and going off into wild speculations. The author admits to being wrong about Trump but continues to make the same mistakes, which are legion. Can Trump win? Absolutely! With so many crazies such as Ted Cruz as opponents, Trump is no different than the others, and one of the candidates will win, but if one is actually elected, we are in for a depression or worse; in this sense, Trump is probably the best of the lot since he seems more real than the others.
the media, and especially the mass media such as the NYT relies almost exclusively on reporting on polls and going off into wild speculations. The author admits to being wrong about Trump but continues to make the same mistakes, which are legion. Can Trump win? Absolutely! With so many crazies such as Ted Cruz as opponents, Trump is no different than the others, and one of the candidates will win, but if one is actually elected, we are in for a depression or worse; in this sense, Trump is probably the best of the lot since he seems more real than the others.
4
While nobody can ever predict the future, interesting article and the mostly likely outcome...ie, the establishment wing of the Rep. party will rally against Trump and pick a mainstreamer. In the unlikely event Trump gets the nod, Hillary will most likely defeat him.
Have not seen any third party polls yet...ie hillary vs rubio vs trump...Hillary would most likely win since rubio and trump will split the republican vote.
As Churchill once said and I am heavily paraphrasing him, Americans in the beginning always get everything wrong, but in the end, they are the only country that gets everything right...ie..there have been plenty of demagogues in the past from Strom Thurmond to George Wallace who start off big but eventually don't win.
Have not seen any third party polls yet...ie hillary vs rubio vs trump...Hillary would most likely win since rubio and trump will split the republican vote.
As Churchill once said and I am heavily paraphrasing him, Americans in the beginning always get everything wrong, but in the end, they are the only country that gets everything right...ie..there have been plenty of demagogues in the past from Strom Thurmond to George Wallace who start off big but eventually don't win.
4
still beyond belief, this blowhard, buffoon is being seriously considered. I scratch my head that we're so desperate for an "outside the box" candidate
3
Bad news and indifferent Presidential leadership have helped Mr. Trump a lot. So has the frantic criticism from the Media. Add to that the dismal list of competitors also seeking the Republican nomination. He is in a good spot. He's loaded with dough and can't be forced out. He uses his persona as a leader to good effect and has been lucky so far. Lady Luck is a fickle mistress, but should she continue to smile his way, he will continue to win. He has a gambler's chance to take it all.
5
I know it's too soon, but how many morbidly curious folk are already wondering who the GOP contenders like Trump are considering as their choice for VP if nominated. Will they think outside the box, keeping in mind the irreparable damage Sarah Palin did to John McCain, or keep it in the immediate family? Trying to conjure up an "ideal" running mate to combine with any of these reactionary buffoons (have already tried it with friends) could provide the ideal postprandial Christmas parlor game in some families- as long as the guns are safely locked up.
6
If Trump were to be elected our stock market would crash. The world would see this as the demise of democracy and the USA. So.....
2
Because Trump is not the candidate of 2/3 of the Republican Party, the other candidates will linger longer hoping that they can have a stronger role in a brokered convention. There is also the reality of emotional pressure that builds on a candidate and a win or loss can cause strange behavior and comments that eventually sink them. If it is a brokered convention and Trump has the most albeit not half of the delegates, he will declare himself a winner and threaten to run as a third party candidate if they don't hand him the nomination. That threat could win him the slot.
2
Trump will win. Americans are stupid enough to elect him!
1
It's quite something that Rubio should be portrayed as the "reasonable" candidate. The Republican party has worked very hard to get to where it is today, and Trump's statements on race, immigration, terrorism, etc. have deep roots in the party that have been carefully cultivated with massive investments by wealthy people. Because gay-bashing, Moslem-bashing, black-bashing, latino-bashing, woman-bashing is the pot pourri of ideological incentives these investors use to get enough people out there to vote for the tax cuts. Trump may not get the nomination but that does not change the fact that his views are at the core of the Republican Party's electoral strategy.
6
I'm less frightened by the idea of a president trump than I am by the idea that party elites override the expressed will of the voters.
10
jkw - If the party elites override the "will of the voters" it would be because it's a National Emergency!!
1
All we have heard from the Times and TV/Radio over the last 6 months is Trump will flame out.He hasn't.Why?Because he says what many voters in this nation actually think about today's issues.I'm not a Trump supporter but he's a breath of fresh air since he is not controlled by any traditional Repub/Dem "power brokers".Trump funds his own campaign.Given a choice between him and Hillary,I'd hold my nose and vote for him.Hillary is not the answer to our country's pressing needs.Hillary is controlled/owned by Wall Street,the Banks,etc.Run Elizabeth,run!!
9
If name calling and insults are a breath of "fresh air" then that is pretty polluted "fresh air".
2
If history is any indicator (and it usually is) I see some parallels between this primary and the 1908 Republican primary between Theodore Roosevelt and William Howard Taft. Even though Roosevelt lead in the polls and was the favorite , the Republican establishment with an incumbent Taft, switched delegates giving Taft the nomination. The Progressive wing , feeling betrayed, spit and formed the Bull Moose party, splitting the GOP vote, handing Woodrow Wilson the election. I do not see an ego the size of Trump's gracefully stepping aside when Bush/Rubio/Cruz gets the nod. Will history repeat itself? Time will tell.
3
People will vote by their emotions.
If there is another ISIS terror attack, he will win the nomination and Presidency.
America will seek a strong, vocal, direct leader and will tolerate his other faults
Logic will run a bad second place.
If there is another ISIS terror attack, he will win the nomination and Presidency.
America will seek a strong, vocal, direct leader and will tolerate his other faults
Logic will run a bad second place.
7
Worry less about Trump winning and more about how he has changed the conversation and why he has the support he has. Trump may be gone but Trumpism will remain until his supporters feel their views are included in the national conversation.
Something has changed and it won't go away with derision or name calling and its not just Republicans.
Something has changed and it won't go away with derision or name calling and its not just Republicans.
7
The republican candidate field seems to be where evil keeps meeting evil. DT certainly has name recognition - thanks largely to press and the amount of free space they feed his ego with. The real face of evil is Ted Cruz. Did anyone wonder why he suddenly forged ahead in the polls? An exclusive article in the Guardian last week explains how he is using a "voluntary and confidential" survey of facebook users to mine facebook users information and target messages (lies) to them. Ugly, Ugly, Ugly. This is the reason I refuse to use facebook, smart phones, other social media or vote for ANY republican/libertarian/tea party or other BIG democracy-destroying money operatives.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/11/senator-ted-cruz-presiden...
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/11/senator-ted-cruz-presiden...
1
njglea - Thanks for the Guardian link!!
All all the current republican candidates maybe with the exception of Christy, who is damaged goods, have proved their lack of courage by refusing to take on Trump in any meaningful way. When they are all together many times Trump look like the only strong man in the room. They don't dare to take him on. instead they take the low and easy road and attack Obama. Well guess guys, Obama isn't running for anything. We heard all your blistering criticisms (mostly lies) yet elected him twice, the second time by overwhelming numbers over Romney. If they keep this strategy Trump will run roughshod over them and beat them senseless. Let's look forward to Hillary vs Trump.
3
There is a paradox to Mr. Trump's appeal; highest among Republicans, but lowest among minorities. Without the minority vote, which he has irrevocably alienated, he cannot win against the Democrat nominee. Once this is realized, the Republicans will be forced to nominate a candidate who has a chance to win the presidency with votes from Muslims, Blacks, Latinos, Chinese, and non-minority women.
1
America is great still- stalwart, enduring and resilient to Mr. Trump's pathological, demagogic Munchausen by proxy traveling roadshow. This grandstanding and seeding of discontent is 'splitting' a country's unity and insulting its constitutional values on the global stage.
'Splitting is described in the American Psychiatric Association’s Diagnostic & Statistical Manual (DSM-IV) as “A pattern of unstable and intense interpersonal relationships characterized by alternating between extremes of idealization and devaluation.”'
Laughably and sadly, Mr. Trump shall be an educational bookmark in American history.
'Splitting is described in the American Psychiatric Association’s Diagnostic & Statistical Manual (DSM-IV) as “A pattern of unstable and intense interpersonal relationships characterized by alternating between extremes of idealization and devaluation.”'
Laughably and sadly, Mr. Trump shall be an educational bookmark in American history.
1
As I've said from day one, it's going to be Bush-Kasich. Or, Fla. - Oh. Book it.
2
What a pleasant surprise to see the French voters reaction to a possible Le Pen victory.
We actually saw moderates from both left and right unite against a common threat.
With a little common sense<< It Can Happen Here>>.
We actually saw moderates from both left and right unite against a common threat.
With a little common sense<< It Can Happen Here>>.
4
All the liberals are rubbing their worry beads, holding their rabbit's foot and crossing their fingers hoping Trump does not win. It is highly recommended that you do to hold your breath.
3
I think the reserve is true you are the ones worrying cause a Trump win and your GOP is toast. Bring it on
3
"How Trump Could Win, and Why He Probably Won’t"
Just as it way too early to say he will be a front-runner by the time the nomination rolls around, it's also way too early to predict that he "probably won't" win.
His chances of winning are "real" but not "good"? Somehow I thought the science of statistics provided more exact answers. But it can't in a real-world scenario as volatile and unrepeatable as a U.S. presidential election.
Just as it way too early to say he will be a front-runner by the time the nomination rolls around, it's also way too early to predict that he "probably won't" win.
His chances of winning are "real" but not "good"? Somehow I thought the science of statistics provided more exact answers. But it can't in a real-world scenario as volatile and unrepeatable as a U.S. presidential election.
I don't think statistics means what you think it means, especially when it comes to political polling. the sample size is always to small from a historical perspective and there are always way to many new variables, it is nice to see some of the historical examples rehashed to calm those of us who started to freak out about Trump polling going up while saying much crazier things,
on a side note, is Trump just trying to get Jon Stewart to get out of retirement....
on a side note, is Trump just trying to get Jon Stewart to get out of retirement....
1
A Cruz win is much scarier to me than a Trump victory. Trump is more than just a bit out-in-left-field crazy (or should that be right field?). Cruz is psycho-thriller crazy. For Trump, this is just publicity, his life blood. Cruz has his own, unknown and unsettling, agenda. Watch his face; this man's eyes do not smile.
Trump simply will not win. With the exception of the base he has attracted, which has not increased to any great degree in the past 6 months, his shtick is wearing thin. America's international relations with the leaders of the major governments of Europe and Asia would be disastrous at best. Contrary to Trump's opinion of himself and his abilities, and those of his most ardent supporters, the US needs allies, not more enemies. Has anyone asked around at places like, oh, the Pentagon what the fall out of a Trump term might be?
Trump has to win EVERY Republican vote plus at least 55-60% of the Independent vote to take the White House. That's a pretty remote possibility.
But, back to Cruz. With Ted, the US takes another giant step toward theocracy. And Cruz's Christianity is of the highly, no, make that extremely, judgmental variety. Laws against "sin" (need I say which sins?) will again be written into the books. The next President will name at least one new member of the Supreme Court. Think about that.
With either of these men in the Oval Office, I will have to rethink my retirement residency choices.
Trump simply will not win. With the exception of the base he has attracted, which has not increased to any great degree in the past 6 months, his shtick is wearing thin. America's international relations with the leaders of the major governments of Europe and Asia would be disastrous at best. Contrary to Trump's opinion of himself and his abilities, and those of his most ardent supporters, the US needs allies, not more enemies. Has anyone asked around at places like, oh, the Pentagon what the fall out of a Trump term might be?
Trump has to win EVERY Republican vote plus at least 55-60% of the Independent vote to take the White House. That's a pretty remote possibility.
But, back to Cruz. With Ted, the US takes another giant step toward theocracy. And Cruz's Christianity is of the highly, no, make that extremely, judgmental variety. Laws against "sin" (need I say which sins?) will again be written into the books. The next President will name at least one new member of the Supreme Court. Think about that.
With either of these men in the Oval Office, I will have to rethink my retirement residency choices.
62
Come to Canada. It's not cold here. It's cool.
2
Trump is a carbuncle on the gluteus maximus of American civilization. But he is also an indicator of voter sentiment, and unfortunately, of the misinformed state of the electorate. My concern is where they go if/when Trump leaves the scene. The same goes for Bernie Sanders. I like that man, of course, but he's unelectable. I wish his supporters would face the realities of the Electoral College. Bernie could win every vote in NY and Calif, and still lose by a mile. So what will his disenchanted supporters do when Bernie fades?
We've seen the cost of readily disenchanted voters in 2010. They have no staying power and are addicted to instantaneous gratification. Is Bernie setting Democrats up for a poor turn-out in the general?
We've seen the cost of readily disenchanted voters in 2010. They have no staying power and are addicted to instantaneous gratification. Is Bernie setting Democrats up for a poor turn-out in the general?
5
The Democrat setting us up for a poor turn out is CLINTON. All the enthusiasm goes to Sanders. We don't all buy the party line that he is unelectable.
3
A quote from "The Irony of Democracy", my 1972 political science textbook, "Mass (populist) activism tends to occur in crisis situations - defeat or humiliation in war, economic depression and unemployment, or threat to public safety. These failures reduce the confidence of the masses in established leadership and makes the masses vulnerable to the appeals of counter-elites."
According to authors Dye & Zeigler, the lower middle and working classes have little support for democratic principles of free speech, due process, religious freedom ( that conflicts with their own faith) or civil rights. But normally these groups are apathetic and involved in American politics.
Counter elite political leaders like Joseph McCarthy, George Wallace and Donald Trump take advantage of the masses when events arouse them to political action. Populist counter elites like Mr. Trump are hostile to democratic institutions and represent a danger to our political system.
The fact that the middle class has declined from 61% of the population in 1971 to barely 50% today, must be partly responsible for public disenchantment with the system.
According to authors Dye & Zeigler, the lower middle and working classes have little support for democratic principles of free speech, due process, religious freedom ( that conflicts with their own faith) or civil rights. But normally these groups are apathetic and involved in American politics.
Counter elite political leaders like Joseph McCarthy, George Wallace and Donald Trump take advantage of the masses when events arouse them to political action. Populist counter elites like Mr. Trump are hostile to democratic institutions and represent a danger to our political system.
The fact that the middle class has declined from 61% of the population in 1971 to barely 50% today, must be partly responsible for public disenchantment with the system.
9
In an attempt to rake through this article to find deeper meaning, the importance of a solid, liberally educated electorate comes to mind. This helps to explain the 21st Century's Republican hostility toward pointy-headed intellectualism, knowledge, science, the humanities, evolution, critical thinking and -- yes -- education itself.
As with so much microbial life, this anti-intellectual strain has mutated into a darker, more antibody-resistant form, now finding expression in disconnected, guttural grunts expressing fear-mongering bigotry or serpentine venom, a veritable celebration of obtuseness garnished by rage.
www.endthemadnessnow.org
As with so much microbial life, this anti-intellectual strain has mutated into a darker, more antibody-resistant form, now finding expression in disconnected, guttural grunts expressing fear-mongering bigotry or serpentine venom, a veritable celebration of obtuseness garnished by rage.
www.endthemadnessnow.org
14
Wow, you're like a walking thesaurus or somethin.'
1
Yawn.. How about an article about why no one thought an Independent senator from Vermont could be more than an election curiosity and then that senator to fire up voters with the most compelling and reasonable platform of any candidate from either party?
11
It's all in the eye of the beholder, isn't it? He's not electable, nobody wants to pay the taxes that need to be paid to make some of his ideas reality. The Democrats would be fools to nominate him.
1
My candidate of choice, Bernie Sanders, has stated that even if he were elected President, he alone cannot effect the change needed to restore the middle class and fairness.
He recommends that Americans, the 99% of us who are now at the bottom of the economic heap, must join forces, protest the status quo, and march into D.C. and into Congress if we expect anything to change. In other words, Sanders is calling for a social revolution.
It seems to me that Trump is riling the people who are so angry they can't see straight -- a group that includes liberal Democrats like me -- into action and is helping to coalesce the group that Bernie says is necessary for real change. For that reason alone, Trump is doing this country a great service.
What will be needed is someone who can lead the mob of angry Americans toward positive change instead of violent insurrection. That's a tall order but a necessary one for the restoration of this country.
He recommends that Americans, the 99% of us who are now at the bottom of the economic heap, must join forces, protest the status quo, and march into D.C. and into Congress if we expect anything to change. In other words, Sanders is calling for a social revolution.
It seems to me that Trump is riling the people who are so angry they can't see straight -- a group that includes liberal Democrats like me -- into action and is helping to coalesce the group that Bernie says is necessary for real change. For that reason alone, Trump is doing this country a great service.
What will be needed is someone who can lead the mob of angry Americans toward positive change instead of violent insurrection. That's a tall order but a necessary one for the restoration of this country.
76
The Republican party has spent years cultivating a conservative base, that used gerrymandering quite effectively, to take control of state and local governments. The problem, is translating these small wins into a national win---in fact, they so dominate these governments now, that they continually talk to themselves, as if they represent the nation instead of a district in South Carolina. This talking to yourself, has continually narrowed and narrowed their policy options, to the point now, that any of these candidate journeying to states with large electoral votes (e.g. NY, California, Illinois, Ohio, etc.) will be an ideological box that has them stuck campaigning in districts that carry few electoral votes. Even what could be considered mainstream Republican candidates (e.g. Jeb), have moved so far to the right that his views on almost any subject would not play well in Chicago, Illinois.
4
>
Just as long as the stupid people of America are part of the selection process Trump could win.
The fact that he's where he is, is an indictment on a colossal scale.
Just as long as the stupid people of America are part of the selection process Trump could win.
The fact that he's where he is, is an indictment on a colossal scale.
9
He's already won.... The plan for his 'brand' is to get all the publicity he can, and as soon as the tide starts to turn, and it will, he'll 'quit' so as not to lose.
President Trump? Pigs will fly in solar powered pigpens before that happens....
President Trump? Pigs will fly in solar powered pigpens before that happens....
1
To understand Trump as well as Carson, Cruz et al we need to look in the rear view mirror and go back a hundred years. A hundred years ago Jim Crow and Carrie Nation ran the streets of our country. Should we step into the time machine and regress a century or so how will this play out on Main St.?
2
Undoubtedly the Weimar equivalents of our pundit class had a similar view of the electoral prospects of the Nazis.
The most troubling prospect of the Trump candidacy is not the possibility that he might win the nomination, which I concede is unlikely, but rather that his support might rally to the more plausible but also more genuinely fascist candidate, Ted Cruz who has a much likelier path to victory.
The most troubling prospect of the Trump candidacy is not the possibility that he might win the nomination, which I concede is unlikely, but rather that his support might rally to the more plausible but also more genuinely fascist candidate, Ted Cruz who has a much likelier path to victory.
9
Trump doesn't seem to be really serious about any of this, he seems to be enjoying himself far more than candidates do. I hope he sticks around if for no other reason than to undermine Cruz who is the most dangerous candidate in recent memory.
Trump's campaign style has been outrageous for so long but to his credit he hasn't wavered from it. Cruz will literally do and say anything to advance himself, offering a level of dishonesty that is unequaled among all candidates.
Trump's campaign style has been outrageous for so long but to his credit he hasn't wavered from it. Cruz will literally do and say anything to advance himself, offering a level of dishonesty that is unequaled among all candidates.
41
Trump shot himself in the foot and that was immediately reflected in his poll numbers when his first foray into foreign policy was an attempted get together with Netanyahu (which Bibi refused), this signaled to the rightfully disgruntled ninety nine percent that Trump as President would just be more of the same, a United States run by special interests.
"In nearly every election cycle, there are candidates who lead national polls and sometimes even win states, but don’t come close to winning the nomination..."
Yes, and her name is Hilary Clinton, even though the New York Times reporters wish it weren't so.
Yes, and her name is Hilary Clinton, even though the New York Times reporters wish it weren't so.
6
I keep wondering if what's really happening with Trump -- and Buchanan before him, is that when people are asked who they support, they mention Trump because it makes them part of the story. It seems understandable that people will like whomever the media has anointed, whether it's the pitcher who throws the shutout, the hero who saves a life, or the candidate making the most outrageous statements. It's fun to be part of the show. But when it's time to vote, I'd like to believe it's a different story. Maybe that just a little leftover respect for the process and the people that hasn't been wiped away.
1
I sure hope you are right, and I'll adopt your viewpoint. It will help me to salvage some respect for a swath of my fellow Americans who were about to lose it.
I wouldn't bet against him. He's " really, really smart" and in "amazing health."
1
I'd bet against him, considering both those claims are blatant lies.
2
It's interesting that the GOP establishment is so aghast at the prospect of Trump at the top of the ticket since he is the result of eight years of their veiled race baiting and dog-whistle agitation of the angriest, whitest, male-ist voters they could find. Via Fox and a host of other right wing media they have created the notion of an oppressed Caucasian minority, whose very existence is threatened by "The Other". Suddenly, a messiah appears, who voices the same paranoia but he doesn't mince words. Instead, he "tells it like it is". No more lurking in the shadows for xenophobia and racism....it's us and them...Sarah Palin's "Real Americans" versus whatever else is out there. In the new version of America we don't even have to try to be tolerant and evidently a lot of people find that message refreshing.
8
Indeed, as a party Republicans do not like to look in the mirror...when they media holds it up to them....they call that "Main Stream Median Bias". Fear has been used by both parties but never as artfully as the Republicans...Joe McCarthy, Nixon, and even the Bushes (Willie Horton and fear of another 9/11) are just some of the examples.
A real problem as demographics continue to go against them.
A real problem as demographics continue to go against them.
1
I appreciate Nate Cohn's article but the sad fact is that it is either unnecessary or, worse, too placating. What's to blame, suggests the author, is a media and systems that are unable to tell us what is actually happening. Why, for example, are we even listening to hysterical reports of the rise of Trump if -as Nate points out- such will amount to nothing? What are these "polls"? Who are these Trumpites? And if their existence will not amount to a hill of beans, then why are we listening? With apologies to Mr. Cohen, I prefer the alternative approach: Trump is a legitimate threat and, as much as I'd like to read this feature and relax, I can't rely on history in the face of such danger.
1
Mr. Trump, please lose and run as a third-party candidate.
8
I just wonder if the real reason the GOP leaders don't want Mr. Trump as the candidate is possibility of loss of Congressional seats? Assuming that Mr. Trump is the candidate, his statements could just draw out enough votes where if Democrats fielded a halfway credible person for a House or Senate seat a victory might be possible.
2
The Republicans have gerrymandered the heck out of the states where they are in control...the Trump effect would have some effect but not hand the Senate or the House over to the Democratic Party.
I think it is the Presidency where they are going up hill.
I think it is the Presidency where they are going up hill.
2
This is about the 237th article on this subject. Can the Times stop pushing their anti-Trump agenda and start giving me some more important news about the rest of the field?
I'm a New Yorker who's not voting for him, but I'm just calling it like I see it.
I'm a New Yorker who's not voting for him, but I'm just calling it like I see it.
20
Hey, wait aminute! Let's be fair.the Times invited us to pose questions for Bernie Sanders which it led us to believe Bernie would answer. Then they had Bernie answer ONE question. Wow!
Before that,the coverage on Bernie's candidacy? Frankly, I no longer remember.
www.endthemadnessnow.org
Before that,the coverage on Bernie's candidacy? Frankly, I no longer remember.
www.endthemadnessnow.org
3
How did dumping Howard Dean work out for the Democrats in 2004 anyway?
13
Whatever happens, Trump is the best thing that has happened to newsprint journalism since the Spainish American War.
12
Cohn's been wrong about Trump from the beginning, predicting his collapse all along the way. Anyone with 41% support in such a big field is the likely winner of the nomination. Forget all your failed predictions, Mr. Cohn and look at the data afresh.
As for the general election: another matter. That's where his negatives will really count. He's not going to beat Hillary.
As for the general election: another matter. That's where his negatives will really count. He's not going to beat Hillary.
8
It should be noted that the arch-right Republican lower taxes ueber alles, Norquist, said that the Republican wannabe presidential candidates this time around was "the strongest field ever since 1980".
This 'strongest field' - led by Mr. Trump - has made the US once again the laughing stock of the rest of the advanced world.
This 'strongest field' - led by Mr. Trump - has made the US once again the laughing stock of the rest of the advanced world.
121
Mr. Norquist converted to Islam when he married. I wonder how he feels now that Trump wants to frog march Muslims out of the country.
4
Not just Grover Norquist, but Chuck Todd also referred to the Republican candidates offered up this election cycle as the strongest field in 30 years"! So much for Grover and Chuck's bona fides as pundits!
2
This election cycle is becoming more of an indictment of the Republican Party and its followers than the candidates. Trump is mearly the match setting fire to the fuse. The RNC has spent millions, if not billions creating the destructive monster that is their base. Now the world is seeing their results of years of ignorance and hate. The eventual Republican candidate will lose and (barring election results sabatotage) lose big.
50
But who's going to control Congress? If it's the Republicans vs a Pres. Clinton we're in for 4 more years of getting almost nothing done.
2
Nat Cohn makes a plausible argument about why Donald Trump will probably not win the nomination. But, I think it is wrong this time around. The reason is simply that there is no alternative candidate to him who is an establishment-supported one. His biggest competitors are Cruz, Carson and Rubio, none of whom are backed by the Republican establishment (Rubio comes closest but he has no current political traction). If we use prior history as a guide, in 2008 McCain was acceptable to the Republican establishment. In 2012, Romney was. Going back earlier, Bush, obviously, was in 2000 while Dole was in 1996. The closest analogy is Reagan in 1980; but Reagan had been a governor in California and was semi-supported by the Republican establishment.
In short, the battle seems to be between four different radicals in the party, not between a radical and a moderate. Frankly, I don't see anything stopping Trump. But, I have been wrong before and could be again (I'm not a crystal ball gazer, after all).
In short, the battle seems to be between four different radicals in the party, not between a radical and a moderate. Frankly, I don't see anything stopping Trump. But, I have been wrong before and could be again (I'm not a crystal ball gazer, after all).
8
I would say, more likely, that the Republicans TRIED to pick a moderate candidate in 2008 and then 2012 -- but look what happened. The Dems acted like they had nominated Satan each time. They went so ballistic about Sarah Palin, that you'd think SHE was running for POTUS -- they still get hysterical about her, and it's been 7 years and she's a private citizen who holds no public office.
So despite all the brave talk, the Dems really won't consider ANY GOP nominee to be acceptable. They want their Golden Girl HIllary to run UNOPPOSED -- anything less than that is horribly offensive. To even challenge her is some kind of insult or micro-aggression! Because it means you do not recognize her Divine Right to Rule Over Us.
So despite all the brave talk, the Dems really won't consider ANY GOP nominee to be acceptable. They want their Golden Girl HIllary to run UNOPPOSED -- anything less than that is horribly offensive. To even challenge her is some kind of insult or micro-aggression! Because it means you do not recognize her Divine Right to Rule Over Us.
2
There can be only one human elected president of the US. Politics is not a race to the finish, it's the last man or woman standing, that takes the highest office. The nation has seen outsized egos before this, and will see them again.
That explains how Donald Trump could win. And he knows it.
That explains how Donald Trump could win. And he knows it.
6
Trump has one advantage that none of the other candidates do....he's self-funded. Normally, candidates who struggle in Iowa/New Hampshire are forced from the race due to lack of funding. That's not an issue with Trump.
The real question is how long the other candidates can stay in the race. Once it becomes a two person race, Trump probably loses. But if it remains a three or four candidate race into March/April, with the opposition to him fractured among multiple candidates, Trump has a pretty good shot.
The real question is how long the other candidates can stay in the race. Once it becomes a two person race, Trump probably loses. But if it remains a three or four candidate race into March/April, with the opposition to him fractured among multiple candidates, Trump has a pretty good shot.
18
Even more so: Trump is so smart, he has spent almost nothing. He's rich enough to fund any sort of campaign -- but why bother? when the media and NYT will do all the spending and publicity FOR you?
2
There's a yuuge assumption here - that historical comparisons are informative. It's arguable that the Republican party is so very different now than it has ever been since primary elections came to dominate the candidate selection process, that 2016 will be a precedent shattering situation.
First, obviously, there's never been a candidate like Donald Trump before. Pat Buchanan had similar nativist support but he did not have the ability to self-finance a campaign.
Second, the Republican electorate is extreme and angry.
Third, we're fully in the post-Citizens United era. In the past, candidates dropped out of the running when their treasurer told them the bank account was empty. We now have a number of competitors each having sizable super-PACs allowing them to go far into the primary process, and splitting the anti-Trump vote. Florida is winner-take-all on March 15. Trump is currently leading, and could win with 35 percent of the vote.
Fourth, the schedule is compressed this cycle. By the end of March, thirty states and Puerto Rico will have had their caucus or primary election. Ironically, the party officials set the calendar up to try and force a nominee determination fairly quickly, to avoid the "flavor of the week" sequence that occurred in 2012 which left their eventual nominee Romney low on funds in the months before the convention.
The problem for the party leaders is that they may get their wish for a quick nominee, and it may well be someone they don't want.
First, obviously, there's never been a candidate like Donald Trump before. Pat Buchanan had similar nativist support but he did not have the ability to self-finance a campaign.
Second, the Republican electorate is extreme and angry.
Third, we're fully in the post-Citizens United era. In the past, candidates dropped out of the running when their treasurer told them the bank account was empty. We now have a number of competitors each having sizable super-PACs allowing them to go far into the primary process, and splitting the anti-Trump vote. Florida is winner-take-all on March 15. Trump is currently leading, and could win with 35 percent of the vote.
Fourth, the schedule is compressed this cycle. By the end of March, thirty states and Puerto Rico will have had their caucus or primary election. Ironically, the party officials set the calendar up to try and force a nominee determination fairly quickly, to avoid the "flavor of the week" sequence that occurred in 2012 which left their eventual nominee Romney low on funds in the months before the convention.
The problem for the party leaders is that they may get their wish for a quick nominee, and it may well be someone they don't want.
46
"The problem for the party leaders is that they may get their wish for a quick nominee, and it may well be someone they don't want"
I wouldn't worry about the party leaders. They'll get exactly who they want. It's the American people who will get the shaft.
I wouldn't worry about the party leaders. They'll get exactly who they want. It's the American people who will get the shaft.
3
The Des Moines Register has a story today about how the Trump campaign in Iowa has virtually no infrastructure:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucu...
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/elections/presidential/caucu...
6
In trashing Trump, the Des Moines Register’s editorial board was essentially making the case that only certain presidential candidates are worthy of running for the office, yet to make the point, they oddly chose to stoop to the level of politics they supposedly despise. Des Moines Register has lost credibility
3
In today's Tea Party destroyed GOP, anything is possible. Cruz, Trump and, to a lesser extent, Rubio are so far out of the mainstream that they scare the bejesus of the majority of us who are Independents and Democrats. Perhaps Trump's greatest service to this country would be, if he is not the nominee, running as a third party candidate and denying this bunch of misfits a victory next year.
77
Trump will never run a s independent, scaring establishment is different
1
"He has a high floor but a low ceiling, and although he has weathered many controversies, the toughest days are yet to come."
I love that phrase which you use twice in this article. I can picture Trump sort of sandwiched like an NFL player in between his high floor and low ceiling, sort of implying the boom is ready to lower. Whether it will or not depends on how soon the media actually wakes up the fact they've been a huge part of Trump's rise.
It's easier to cover an entertainer than a policy wonk in today's era of light thinking and heavy presence. Jeb Bush surely knows this. As long as the Donald can get away with vagueries, his supporters will give him a pass.
But I agree with this piece in an overall way: we are still one year away from the election, based on history, the front-runner often ends up in the back of the pack.
I love that phrase which you use twice in this article. I can picture Trump sort of sandwiched like an NFL player in between his high floor and low ceiling, sort of implying the boom is ready to lower. Whether it will or not depends on how soon the media actually wakes up the fact they've been a huge part of Trump's rise.
It's easier to cover an entertainer than a policy wonk in today's era of light thinking and heavy presence. Jeb Bush surely knows this. As long as the Donald can get away with vagueries, his supporters will give him a pass.
But I agree with this piece in an overall way: we are still one year away from the election, based on history, the front-runner often ends up in the back of the pack.
24
I think another thing that makes many people go for someone like Trump is this: all the platforms that candidates have run on and won on have led to policies that are perceived by these people to address only the concerns of the very rich or the very poor. Most voters, fed up with this failed political class, do not see themselves in these other candidates and thus turn to someone like Trump.
3
In this analysis no one is questioning the accuracy of the polls. A national poll with a sample of 350? Response rates in the single digits?
68
Absolutely.
Also consider the antiquated methods for many of these polls:
Calling home phone numbers, not cell numbers.
How many of us continue to have a land line?
And in the off-chance it does ring, how many even pick it up?
The people being polled are not representative of the average Modern American.
Also consider the antiquated methods for many of these polls:
Calling home phone numbers, not cell numbers.
How many of us continue to have a land line?
And in the off-chance it does ring, how many even pick it up?
The people being polled are not representative of the average Modern American.
1
It's hard to understand why so many republicans take Trump seriously. He is obviously totally unfit for the presidency. Why don't his supporters see it? I think they see it but they don't care. Trump is a protest candidate who best embodies the rejection of the GOP establishment by the new, radicalized party base. He is merely the beneficiary of the intraparty civil war that has been underway since the GOP absorbed the Tea Party. Now the party establishment has a tiger by the tail and they don't know what to do about it. The GOP establishment deserves it, of course. They've duped and manipulated the party base for decades by pretending to represent them while pursuing a totally different agenda favoring the most privileged people in the country, the so called One Percent. Perhaps the GOP base knows it, at long last. I wonder how much longer before the base realizes the GOP doesn't represent them at all?
207
"I wonder how much longer before the base realizes the GOP doesn't represent them at all?" As long as they are given buffoons like The Donald who can stir up the anti-everything rhetoric, the Republican base will fall prey to their own host of bad choices. It's exactly the same with the Democrats, but they don't realize it yet. They are so distracted by Trump and the media trumpeting his latest outrage, they can't see that The Hillary Brand® doesn't represent them either. All they can say is "she isn't Donald Trump." That's not a choice. Real candidates who actually represent the population aren't allowed to get anywhere near the White House. Paul Wellstone. Elizabeth Warren. Dennis Kucinich. The last one who actually did anything useful was JFK - and look what happened to him. You cannot run against the wishes of the Deep State and power elites.
Obviously it represents you. You called it a Grand Old Party five times in this one post alone. And Priebus thanks you.
Kick them all you like - but if you kiss them at the same time, you are sending mixed signals at best.
Kick them all you like - but if you kiss them at the same time, you are sending mixed signals at best.
I too find the "Trump" electability among the uneducated members of the GOP amazing. Here's a guy who's run no part of government (not even local) and they think he's 'qualified'.
Mind you these are the same folks who continue to lambast President Obama as "just a community organizer".
Mind you these are the same folks who continue to lambast President Obama as "just a community organizer".
6
Trump has a real world grasp of the issues. He has an understanding of economics and world politics.
Electing a Democrat, especially Hillary, would be like giving the most failed president in memory a 3rd term.
Electing a Democrat, especially Hillary, would be like giving the most failed president in memory a 3rd term.
29
Most failed President? Wouldn't that be George W Bush? Tax cuts creating a huge deficit, starting an unnecessary war that haunts us to this day and will continue to long into the future, and leaving us with a major recession; that, my friends is what qualifies Bush as "the most failed president in memory."
137
I would suggest you take a look at http://www.politifact.com/personalities/donald-trump/ to see just how little he actually knows about the facts around issues. This moves past the idea that he is echoing the words of some of the last century's most deadly leaders.
I am no Clinton fan, but, I would encourage you to look deeper than the advertisements, reality TV, and just being able to say what one thinks. Sometimes statesmanship matters more than a soundbite.
I would encourage you to think about what you are really angry, upset, and frustrated about and align that with a reasonable path.
I am no Clinton fan, but, I would encourage you to look deeper than the advertisements, reality TV, and just being able to say what one thinks. Sometimes statesmanship matters more than a soundbite.
I would encourage you to think about what you are really angry, upset, and frustrated about and align that with a reasonable path.
10
"The most failed president in history"? I can't tell which describes it best: hyperbolic or completely inaccurate.
9
Here is what I don't understand: How exactly is Candidate Trump any different from GOP vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin? For that matter, why is a Trump president scarier than Ted Cruz at the helm? Or Michelle Bachman in her heyday? Or Newt Gingrich before that?
I have a fantasy--and it is, but a fantasy, that somewhere in some ivory tower, the GOP kingmakers are looking in the mirror in self reflection and will reemerge from this mess chastised and wiser. That the candidates they will support and promote in 2020 move back right of center. That they soften their "win at all costs" mentality and reemerge with a party worthy of challenge to the Democratic side. Because we certainly need that or we become a one party system, right?
But I know it's mere fantasy. The same hubris, arrogance, insensitivity, and meanness that got behind all those candidates before Trump is still in play today. The GOP brethren is not bummed out that candidate Trump is an immoral boob with a frightening agenda.
No, what they are bummed about is he is not one of them, he has his own funding and he says outlaid what they only say in private.
I have a fantasy--and it is, but a fantasy, that somewhere in some ivory tower, the GOP kingmakers are looking in the mirror in self reflection and will reemerge from this mess chastised and wiser. That the candidates they will support and promote in 2020 move back right of center. That they soften their "win at all costs" mentality and reemerge with a party worthy of challenge to the Democratic side. Because we certainly need that or we become a one party system, right?
But I know it's mere fantasy. The same hubris, arrogance, insensitivity, and meanness that got behind all those candidates before Trump is still in play today. The GOP brethren is not bummed out that candidate Trump is an immoral boob with a frightening agenda.
No, what they are bummed about is he is not one of them, he has his own funding and he says outlaid what they only say in private.
122
We won't be a one party system as long as the Congress elected is not ruled by the elected President's party.
by the wy, meant to say "outloud" not outlaid. Here is hoping we get an edit button for our fat fingers some day. :-)
"Because we certainly need that or we become a one party system, right?"
There is an alternative, actually, and it's not entirely nuts: As the current younger voters become the majority, any Republican advantage on social issues like race, gay rights or abortion become disadvantages. But because they can't change course without abandoning their base, they won't make that move and slowly implode.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the aisle, the tensions between the corporate-funded wing of the Democratic Party (the Clintons, Barack Obama, etc) and the everybody-else-funded wing of the Democratic Party (Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Al Franken, etc) could easily escalate into a party split. What keeps them together right now has more to do with the threat of a Republican winning than it does with a shared governing philosophy.
There is an alternative, actually, and it's not entirely nuts: As the current younger voters become the majority, any Republican advantage on social issues like race, gay rights or abortion become disadvantages. But because they can't change course without abandoning their base, they won't make that move and slowly implode.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the aisle, the tensions between the corporate-funded wing of the Democratic Party (the Clintons, Barack Obama, etc) and the everybody-else-funded wing of the Democratic Party (Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Al Franken, etc) could easily escalate into a party split. What keeps them together right now has more to do with the threat of a Republican winning than it does with a shared governing philosophy.
1
Nate Cohn said:
"Ultimately, the longer the rest of the party remains as weak and fractured as it is, the easier it is to imagine how a candidate with a high floor and a low ceiling, like Mr. Trump or Mr. Cruz, could thread the needle to the nomination."
Another possibility is that the party remains weak and fractured and nobody comes out definitely ahead at the end. The result is a good old-fashioned brokered convention.
Trump will have a block of support and Cruz will have the Tea Party/Evangelicals, Rubio the non-Tea Party/Evangelical conservatives and Bush the Establishment Republicans.
Think of the possibilities! Lots of fun ahead, folks!
"Ultimately, the longer the rest of the party remains as weak and fractured as it is, the easier it is to imagine how a candidate with a high floor and a low ceiling, like Mr. Trump or Mr. Cruz, could thread the needle to the nomination."
Another possibility is that the party remains weak and fractured and nobody comes out definitely ahead at the end. The result is a good old-fashioned brokered convention.
Trump will have a block of support and Cruz will have the Tea Party/Evangelicals, Rubio the non-Tea Party/Evangelical conservatives and Bush the Establishment Republicans.
Think of the possibilities! Lots of fun ahead, folks!
35
I see absolutely NOTHING amusing about Trump or Cruz. Nothing.
3
Republican convention politics will indeed be a show - and that is exactly, and only, what it is. A "show" - an act within a play whose ending has already been written. Harold Pinter would have a field day with The Donald versus The Brand® versus all the other walk-on characters whose lines have been scripted for them and whose only value has been to flush out a play for the unthinking masses who will applaud when it's over. Curtains down. Lights off. The actors hustle back to their dressing rooms for a makeup change. On to the next show - be it book deals or TV host positions, or a 7 figure salary in some power broker firm.
But it's really "curtains" for the American public. We will get the actress whose next play will be that as the first female president of the USA. And I can't WAIT to see what show she will entertain us with for the next 4 years. But you can bet that it won't have an ending that will be anything like we were told..
But it's really "curtains" for the American public. We will get the actress whose next play will be that as the first female president of the USA. And I can't WAIT to see what show she will entertain us with for the next 4 years. But you can bet that it won't have an ending that will be anything like we were told..
2
Don't count Trump out. As the field narrows, Trump will be one on one with the remaining candidates. Trump has a personality made for television. I would bet on Trump with a one on one debate with any of the candidates. He is polling even with them currently. The polling data cited by Nate is a paradox. Half of the voters say that they will definitely not vote for him, yet his opponents in the polls get only half the vote. Does that mean that they have no inherent support only anti-Trump support? If that is so, then it opens the door for Trump to tune his image to a larger audience. After all, he is basically a deal maker and he may be able to do that with the GOP electorate.
12
Fooling the GOP electorate is relatively easy. Winning a general election in which registered republicans are a minority is something else. If Trump is the nominee, the GOP will go down in flames in November.
I don't think Trump will be the nominee. The GOP establishment won't allow the nomination of anyone they can't trust to place the interests of the very rich at the top of the agenda. One then has to wonder how long the GOP can survive as a functional political organization if the base refuses to follow along.
I don't think Trump will be the nominee. The GOP establishment won't allow the nomination of anyone they can't trust to place the interests of the very rich at the top of the agenda. One then has to wonder how long the GOP can survive as a functional political organization if the base refuses to follow along.
3
@Purple: in 2008 and 2012, the Republicans made "sensible choices" -- choose very moderate Republicans like McCain and Romney. Not only did Democrats go nearly insane with hatred for these two guys, but the "base" did not support them either.
When did the GOP find their greatest success? with Reagan -- who in his day was considered every bit as wildly extreme as Trump. I remember the left wing hysteria when Reagan ran: he was going to end abortion! he was going to start WWIII! We had the usual nancy-pants claiming "we're emigrating to CANADA if Reagan wins!"
None of that ever happened, of course. But no POTUS in modern history was ever as popular as Reagan.
When did the GOP find their greatest success? with Reagan -- who in his day was considered every bit as wildly extreme as Trump. I remember the left wing hysteria when Reagan ran: he was going to end abortion! he was going to start WWIII! We had the usual nancy-pants claiming "we're emigrating to CANADA if Reagan wins!"
None of that ever happened, of course. But no POTUS in modern history was ever as popular as Reagan.
5
Another thing to keep in mind is that if the billionaires supporting Cruz/Rubio/whoever get bored or disappointed they will turn off the spigot. Trump's got his own money (not to mention the fact the media LOVES him and writes about him all day every day). He can stay in all the way. He's got nobody to please but himself. If he has a decent "ground game" to get out the vote, he'll be hard to beat for the nomination.
2
Donald Trump and the Republicans have at least one huge advantage over the Democrats. They have a fairly deep bench with several candidates who are in place and prepared to serve as Commander In Chief aka The President.
The Democrats have only Hillary and Bernie Sanders. If Hillary has to drop out or weakens due to Health Problems then Bernie will never win.
But the Republicans have so many electable candidates in the game that they will simply win by default election.
Hillary Clinton and her Health Condition Concerns is the Big Worry for the Democrats. One further complication or repeat of Her Blood Clot Health Condition and the resulting Neurological Health Issues will torpedo her presidential aspirations and the Democrats hope to win the White House.
We all recall the large thick lensed Wayfarer or Buddy Holly style eyeglasses that Hillary was required to wear after Her Blood Clotting medical scare and the resulting Neurological Health Problems that she suffered a couple of years ago.
Should such a Health Issue arise again or something else that requires hospital and medical specialist visits--Hillary will lose the election.
Donald Trump, Rubio and Cruz all have the Hillary Health Concerns Card as a great hope for winning the election.
The Democrats have only Hillary and Bernie Sanders. If Hillary has to drop out or weakens due to Health Problems then Bernie will never win.
But the Republicans have so many electable candidates in the game that they will simply win by default election.
Hillary Clinton and her Health Condition Concerns is the Big Worry for the Democrats. One further complication or repeat of Her Blood Clot Health Condition and the resulting Neurological Health Issues will torpedo her presidential aspirations and the Democrats hope to win the White House.
We all recall the large thick lensed Wayfarer or Buddy Holly style eyeglasses that Hillary was required to wear after Her Blood Clotting medical scare and the resulting Neurological Health Problems that she suffered a couple of years ago.
Should such a Health Issue arise again or something else that requires hospital and medical specialist visits--Hillary will lose the election.
Donald Trump, Rubio and Cruz all have the Hillary Health Concerns Card as a great hope for winning the election.
3
The GOP bench is made up of second and third stringers and perpetual bench warmers. None of the front runners is qualified for the presidency, and no one in the GOP can match Hillarys resume or proven endurance. Only she and the other democrats have anything substantive or real to offer thinking voters.
The idea that the success of the ACA will give the GOP an electoral advantage is laughable. It merely demonstrates the GOP's general detachment from reality and their persistence in believing their own lies.
The idea that the success of the ACA will give the GOP an electoral advantage is laughable. It merely demonstrates the GOP's general detachment from reality and their persistence in believing their own lies.
114
Recent polls show that Bernie Sanders would win over the Republican candidates, and by a wide margin, considerably more so than Mrs. Clinton. The reason for this is the independent vote, which is larger than either that of registered Republicans or Democrats. For this large group, her unfavorable ratings are very large, whereas he has crossover appeal, even among Republicans.
So Democrats should be careful in view of the qualities of the Republican candidates, whose ignorance and incompetence is only matched by their eagerness to wreak havoc on our country.
So Democrats should be careful in view of the qualities of the Republican candidates, whose ignorance and incompetence is only matched by their eagerness to wreak havoc on our country.
71
Or Hillary Clinton could have no further blood clot problems and go on to soundly defeat any of the healthy Republicans. By the way, is Chris Christie one of those healthy candidates?
17
If Trump has 35% of the Republican primary voters, then he's got 35% of 35%, or 12% of the total electorate. And 65% of the total are horrified at the thought of his being President.
Trump (and to a lesser extent Carson and Cruz) is the hero of those who think and wish they could say all the inaccurate, illogical, irrational, and inappropriate things they believe, and are tired of being told by people they don't like (the better educated, blacks, women, gays, Hispanics) that they're wrong to think or say them. Trump, with his conventional business world success, thrills them when he gives voice to all those inaccurate, inappropriate, irrational, and illogical things.
So, Trump is the hero of those who believe things that are wrong, irrational, illogical, or inappropriate. He's the spokesperson for those people that Churchill was talking about when he said "The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with an average voter."
Trump (and to a lesser extent Carson and Cruz) is the hero of those who think and wish they could say all the inaccurate, illogical, irrational, and inappropriate things they believe, and are tired of being told by people they don't like (the better educated, blacks, women, gays, Hispanics) that they're wrong to think or say them. Trump, with his conventional business world success, thrills them when he gives voice to all those inaccurate, inappropriate, irrational, and illogical things.
So, Trump is the hero of those who believe things that are wrong, irrational, illogical, or inappropriate. He's the spokesperson for those people that Churchill was talking about when he said "The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with an average voter."
355
The haughty condescension dripping from your post is why Trump is leading the polls.
Even if your post is true.
Even if your post is true.
5
There are approx. 146 million registered voters in the US of whom 20% are Republican, 30% Democrat and 40% Independent. Polls indicate Trump as the support of a minority of a distinctly minority party.
2
Bruce, I'm gonna have to start copyrighting my Comments. I've been saying exactly this same thing about Trump the polling numbers for months. But, since you and I, at least, are on the same page regarding Trump, and have the same respect for math, I'll forgive the royalties, this time.
The mere fact that Trump has riveted the population to watch previously unwatchable debates is enough. The policy wonks might be aghast at his lack of uh, policies, but there is no denying that Trump has been a Vitamin B-12 shot in the arm of participative primary politics by saying what's on the minds of a lot of anxious Americans.
Win or lose, Trump has served a valuable purpose in the political process.
Win or lose, Trump has served a valuable purpose in the political process.
57
Trump as revealed the true values of the GOP and clearly articulates Republican programs and policies. In that he has done all Americans a great service.
That said: It is time for the media to address the real and substantial issues of this campaign. Stop fueling this Republican house fire and cover the Democratic Party where the contest may be characterized as evolution vs revolution.
That said: It is time for the media to address the real and substantial issues of this campaign. Stop fueling this Republican house fire and cover the Democratic Party where the contest may be characterized as evolution vs revolution.
9
Ummm... You are confusing "participative primary politics",with reality TV / entertainment. I would rather be poked in the eye with a sharp stick than vote for the nylon-haired one, but I'll be watching tonight with my popcorn. In a sense, I'm a Trump supporter!
1
Let's see how many people vote
1
More wishful thinking. Predicating the election results on past patterns is probably not pertinent this time. The whole point of Trump's rise is the simple fact that people are not inclined to vote the status quo because they're disgusted with it. And liberals have as much to do with Trump's rise as angry conservatives. People have had enough with lack of representation and the feeling that Americans come last in the world political arena. Trump may not have the solutions but he doesn't come off as a phony. People are indeed tired of phonies.
74
Whence comes this idea that Trump isn't a phony? I've had my eye on The Donald since at least the '80s, when the late lamented Spy magazine routinely referred to him as a "short fingered vulgarian." His whole image is built upon the fiction that he is some sort of brilliant businessman. He has notched several bankruptcies and he basically got his start in business due to the hard work and indulgence of his father. What Trump does have, in spades, is chutzpah (although Ted Cruz could definitely give him a run for his money in that department). Chutzpah is not at all the same thing as "realness." Yes, Trump says things that other politicians would not dare. However, when it comes to policy, he's all over the map, totally inconsistent and very short on details. He represents nothing more than the cult of personality, writ large. He is manna from heaven for voters who do not wish to be troubled to think. Which is to say, the overwhelming majority of Americans.
270
Great ... this is excellent and funny too. A laugh or two is certainly needed at this time.
(I still recall the outsized write up of The Donald in the NYT Magazine, in the 80s around the time he turned 40, when everything he touched turned into gold, and yes, we came to NY just to gawk at the Trump Tower, having lunch below that incredible indoor fountain.)
(I still recall the outsized write up of The Donald in the NYT Magazine, in the 80s around the time he turned 40, when everything he touched turned into gold, and yes, we came to NY just to gawk at the Trump Tower, having lunch below that incredible indoor fountain.)
1
He makes The Hillary Brand® look good by comparison, and that's exactly what the political elites want us to think.
6
So you have to backpedal a bit, Nate. I can understand why. As I observe this display of questionable candidates being presented by the Republicans I am seeing a breakdown in the political system that is frightening. I wonder, for instance, if the American public has any vision of what their irrational support foretells.
What is painfully evident to me is the omission of the bulk of our citizens from the candidate’s plans. Every other word speaks to shrinking taxes, stifling Medicare, reducing Social Security benefits, cutting the support off the elderly and needy. Simply put, very few of us (aka the 99%) are included.
Trump is in a world of his own and the support he has is mind boggling. I feel the same way about Cruz. Both these politicians speak to a different world and whether the public will awaken to the sham and cruelty they represent, I have no way of knowing.
As a retiree and a widower, I would rather depart sooner than later. The candidates aren't including the citizens of our country.
What is painfully evident to me is the omission of the bulk of our citizens from the candidate’s plans. Every other word speaks to shrinking taxes, stifling Medicare, reducing Social Security benefits, cutting the support off the elderly and needy. Simply put, very few of us (aka the 99%) are included.
Trump is in a world of his own and the support he has is mind boggling. I feel the same way about Cruz. Both these politicians speak to a different world and whether the public will awaken to the sham and cruelty they represent, I have no way of knowing.
As a retiree and a widower, I would rather depart sooner than later. The candidates aren't including the citizens of our country.
319
you say...."Trump is in a world of his own and the support he has is mind boggling."
If Trump has "mind boggling" support, how is he "in a World of his own"??
Trump supporters understand that we're blowing up the Republican Party. That's the point. The "Party" promises lower taxes, lower deficits, boarder security, smaller government......and do none of it again & again. We're done with the "Party".
There are many, many more Trump supporters out here. 41% is just a start.
If Trump has "mind boggling" support, how is he "in a World of his own"??
Trump supporters understand that we're blowing up the Republican Party. That's the point. The "Party" promises lower taxes, lower deficits, boarder security, smaller government......and do none of it again & again. We're done with the "Party".
There are many, many more Trump supporters out here. 41% is just a start.
3
Doesn't it say something ominous about our country's future that more and more of us retirees are actually saying that we're glad we're not younger, that we have so little faith in the political process and our increasingly fractured and dysfunctional society that we'd just as soon die sooner rather than later?
We see fanatics of all stripes arming themselves to the teeth with deadly military firepower, screaming apocalyptic hysteria about things as personal as choosing a mate or whether or not to have children in a crowded world, advancing overtly religious crusades both foreign and domestic, denying much of what our best dedicated scientists are telling us about our essential living environment, and on and on, yet remaining resolutely ignorant and indifferent in an overheated media environment utterly bent on distraction for profit.
What could possibly go wrong ten years down the road?
We see fanatics of all stripes arming themselves to the teeth with deadly military firepower, screaming apocalyptic hysteria about things as personal as choosing a mate or whether or not to have children in a crowded world, advancing overtly religious crusades both foreign and domestic, denying much of what our best dedicated scientists are telling us about our essential living environment, and on and on, yet remaining resolutely ignorant and indifferent in an overheated media environment utterly bent on distraction for profit.
What could possibly go wrong ten years down the road?
5
One assumption that seems to be left out of this analysis is that many people respond differently to pollsters and when they actually get into the voting booth. On the former occasion it is safe to let off steam and express strong feeling with no need to exercise prudence; on the latter many (not all, of course, but quite likely many) tell themselves it’s time to cool off and get real.
23
Trump is the voice people tired of being told "this is the way it is, you should change," or given some lofty message of hope, or plain ignored. This group was angry, had pretty much given up; Trump emerged as their messiah. They may well be a majority.
The media is responding the same way the left responds to the right when the right talks of creationism and the myth of global warming. By pooh poohing, and by trying to provide a logical arguments. The first is off putting, the second falls on deaf ears.
The reason Trump can win is plain: gall. The problems he is identifying are not made up; they are just something no politician wants to touch. Illegal immigration is a problem that has likely hurt the law and order situation, and reduced wages. Islam is, by all signs, incompatible with western values. Integrated, assimilated Muslims do not follow the religion chapter and verse. China and Japan do have a lot of dollar reserves; something unlikely to happen if everything was fair and square. Meghan was indeed trying to sabotage him in the first debate, rather unfairly (at the behest of Ailes, via Murdoch, via republican establishment). He punched below the waist too; elicited adulation. Now Fox has become his puppy dog (see Hannity).
Trump's messages are ugly; but his constituency does not care. He is going to stick it to everyone, including the establishment that has colluded in keeping the bottom 50% poor. And because of that, he has a real shot.
The media is responding the same way the left responds to the right when the right talks of creationism and the myth of global warming. By pooh poohing, and by trying to provide a logical arguments. The first is off putting, the second falls on deaf ears.
The reason Trump can win is plain: gall. The problems he is identifying are not made up; they are just something no politician wants to touch. Illegal immigration is a problem that has likely hurt the law and order situation, and reduced wages. Islam is, by all signs, incompatible with western values. Integrated, assimilated Muslims do not follow the religion chapter and verse. China and Japan do have a lot of dollar reserves; something unlikely to happen if everything was fair and square. Meghan was indeed trying to sabotage him in the first debate, rather unfairly (at the behest of Ailes, via Murdoch, via republican establishment). He punched below the waist too; elicited adulation. Now Fox has become his puppy dog (see Hannity).
Trump's messages are ugly; but his constituency does not care. He is going to stick it to everyone, including the establishment that has colluded in keeping the bottom 50% poor. And because of that, he has a real shot.
140
The median wage in 2014 was $44,569.
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/central.html
That means it takes $44.6K to stay out of the "bottom 50%."
Does your golden boy pay most of his employees more than that? If not, that's Trump's foot on the neck of the "bottom 50%," too. Gosh, that would be an unpleasant truth. Who would tell it?
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/cola/central.html
That means it takes $44.6K to stay out of the "bottom 50%."
Does your golden boy pay most of his employees more than that? If not, that's Trump's foot on the neck of the "bottom 50%," too. Gosh, that would be an unpleasant truth. Who would tell it?
7
This is a litany of misinformation.
"Illegal immigration is a problem that has likely hurt the law and order situation, and reduced wages."
Crime rates have been DECLINING nation-wide for several decades and the undocumented are probably the most law-abiding people in the country, for the simple reason that they do not want to deal with the authorities. They also pay way more in taxes than they take in services and their cheap labor keeps many services the rest of us take for granted cheap.
"Islam is, by all signs, incompatible with western values. Integrated, assimilated Muslims do not follow the religion chapter and verse."
Most Christians and Jews don't follow their religions chapter and verse either. Have you ever actually READ Leviticus? Islam is no more or less intrinsically compatible with liberal democratic values than any other religion. There are many schools of thought and currents within Islam. The distressing emergence of Salafi jihadism as a small but admittedly potent global current within Islam is a relatively recent development that owes a great deal to US foreign policy decisions to prop up the House of Saud and to arm, train and finance Salafi jihadists during the Cold War as a counter-force to communists and left-wing secular nationalist forces in the Islamic world.
"China and Japan do have a lot of dollar reserves; something unlikely to happen if everything was fair and square."
Nothing is "fair and square" about US global domination.
"Illegal immigration is a problem that has likely hurt the law and order situation, and reduced wages."
Crime rates have been DECLINING nation-wide for several decades and the undocumented are probably the most law-abiding people in the country, for the simple reason that they do not want to deal with the authorities. They also pay way more in taxes than they take in services and their cheap labor keeps many services the rest of us take for granted cheap.
"Islam is, by all signs, incompatible with western values. Integrated, assimilated Muslims do not follow the religion chapter and verse."
Most Christians and Jews don't follow their religions chapter and verse either. Have you ever actually READ Leviticus? Islam is no more or less intrinsically compatible with liberal democratic values than any other religion. There are many schools of thought and currents within Islam. The distressing emergence of Salafi jihadism as a small but admittedly potent global current within Islam is a relatively recent development that owes a great deal to US foreign policy decisions to prop up the House of Saud and to arm, train and finance Salafi jihadists during the Cold War as a counter-force to communists and left-wing secular nationalist forces in the Islamic world.
"China and Japan do have a lot of dollar reserves; something unlikely to happen if everything was fair and square."
Nothing is "fair and square" about US global domination.
9
"He is going to stick it to everyone, including the establishment" - wrong. Thinking that he will drag the poor up against the wishes of the elites is laughable. The LAST thing The Donald will do is shoot his bankers in the foot and stiff those who have put him up as a faux-candidate to run against the Hillary Brand®. Anyone who thinks that he is "the voice of the tired and poor" is delusional. His jingoistic, anti-muslim rhetoric is pure bombast designed to kick up the racist card and give succour to the anti-anyone crowd who like to blame others for their own ills. It's a divide and conquer political game show that gives the illusion that the candidates really care about their constituents. They don't. As George Carlin once said, "it's a big game you and I aren't in it." We need a new enemy to hate that will justify the military budget being inflated to levels not seen since WW2. We need a new distraction that will keep the populace divided and at each others throats so that no one will look behind the curtain and see who's actually pulling the strings. The Donald is just part of that strategy. All the rest of the faux-candidates are window dressing, ready to bail once they get their book deal, or talk show host position, or a boost up within their own party. Islam isn't the problem. Neither are immigrants. It's our own ignorance and denial of the reality that we have been conned and duped and will be force-fed The Hillary Brand® like some Christmas paté.
4
With so many moving parts in the Republican party election it seems foolhardy to predict anything. So far most all of the predictions have been well short or accurate displaying more egos than common sense. It may be that defection from the GOP may be the most effecting outcome to be. Oops, now I am doing it!
8
At this point it's a good likelihood that many voters cannot even name half of the folks running in the GOP race. I pay attention, but still am surprised when someone like Santorum is mentioned. I find myself wondering how/why folks like Graham are remaining in the race (or Christie, for that matter, whose bombast gets him a bit of attention, but he still likely fits in the "Really, he's running for President?" column).
88
A-M-H: 99% of the candidates are not really running for the White House. They are running toward their next post-election position - be it a move up in party politics, or the revolving door of the "failed candidate" who has the book deal ready to go or fancies a seat as the host of some left, or, right wing talk show, and can further their own monetary gain and quest for power. The election has been decided and there is only one person who can do what the elites and Deep State have decided. And that is The Hillary Brand®. There is no choice. Thinking that you have an actual choice or a candidate who represents your own goals or those of the majority is delusional - and is exactly what the elites want us to think.
A real candidate who could "go against the establishment" wouldn't last a New York minute. Look what happened to Paul Wellstone. Or how Elizabeth Warren was "dissuaded" from running against The Brand®. Change that benefits the many is not the change we are going to get. The names change at the door to Pennsylvania Avenue, but that's all. We get a bone thrown to us every so often to placate the masses and keep them from running wild in the streets. And those that do run wild - the 99%'ers - are first ignored, then ridiculed, then bludgeoned and arrested and herded into corrals to keep them under control. The Donald isn't going to change anything that will threaten his own power and fortune.
A real candidate who could "go against the establishment" wouldn't last a New York minute. Look what happened to Paul Wellstone. Or how Elizabeth Warren was "dissuaded" from running against The Brand®. Change that benefits the many is not the change we are going to get. The names change at the door to Pennsylvania Avenue, but that's all. We get a bone thrown to us every so often to placate the masses and keep them from running wild in the streets. And those that do run wild - the 99%'ers - are first ignored, then ridiculed, then bludgeoned and arrested and herded into corrals to keep them under control. The Donald isn't going to change anything that will threaten his own power and fortune.
1
Haven't you heard? They say it's the strongest field in decades.
If this is the best you've got, you've got nada, zip, zilch. ROFL.
If this is the best you've got, you've got nada, zip, zilch. ROFL.
The primary voters will demonstrate that Trump has the Buchanan factor. Voters love the Trump bluster and his brutal unvarnished positions but in the primaries will vote for another candidate, that is much more electable with same but more polished viewpoints.
18
No, Buchanan was the real deal in 1992. The only thing that sank him was a timely sleepover in the Lincoln Bedroom.
Rush Limbaugh had been boosting Buchanan for months when he got an invitation from George H. W. Bush: Come have dinner with Barbara and me, the president said, and spend the night in the White House.
Limbaugh dropped Buchanan the very next day he was on the air - and drove the Bush bandwagon nonstop all the way to the election.
Morals of the story: The base will do what its authorities tell it. And all those authorities can be bought.
Rush Limbaugh had been boosting Buchanan for months when he got an invitation from George H. W. Bush: Come have dinner with Barbara and me, the president said, and spend the night in the White House.
Limbaugh dropped Buchanan the very next day he was on the air - and drove the Bush bandwagon nonstop all the way to the election.
Morals of the story: The base will do what its authorities tell it. And all those authorities can be bought.
22
I would never vote for Trump, since I consider him a Demagogue. But while we have had Pat Buchanans and Ross Perots, Trump is the most successful of these "outsider" Candidates who I have seen and I am 61 years old.
I was one of the persons who always wondered why America needed an 18 and now a 20-month-long Presidential Campaign, when Canada, Britain, France, etc. can elect a National Leader in about 8 weeks or less. It is not due to our 320 million population. You can reach a lot of Voters via TV and the Web.
But then I think: If we were Canada or England, with those ridiculously short Campaigns, Trump may well have been elected our 45th President this past August!
Scary, isn't it?
http:www.linkedin.com/in/rdelrosso2001
I was one of the persons who always wondered why America needed an 18 and now a 20-month-long Presidential Campaign, when Canada, Britain, France, etc. can elect a National Leader in about 8 weeks or less. It is not due to our 320 million population. You can reach a lot of Voters via TV and the Web.
But then I think: If we were Canada or England, with those ridiculously short Campaigns, Trump may well have been elected our 45th President this past August!
Scary, isn't it?
http:www.linkedin.com/in/rdelrosso2001
3
"Morals of the story: The base will do what its authorities tell it. And all those authorities can be bought"
Not only the base, but the politicians themselves. Watch as the faux-candidates drop like flies before the convention and and leave the rotting carcass of the two party system to the rest of us as aprés campaign leftovers. We will be served up Trump versus The Hillary Brand® and they too, will do whatever they are told to do. It really doesn't matter to "the authorities" since they owe their allegiance to the Deep State, and the Deep State has already cast their vote for the candidate that they own, hook, line and sinker. The Hillary Brand®.
Not only the base, but the politicians themselves. Watch as the faux-candidates drop like flies before the convention and and leave the rotting carcass of the two party system to the rest of us as aprés campaign leftovers. We will be served up Trump versus The Hillary Brand® and they too, will do whatever they are told to do. It really doesn't matter to "the authorities" since they owe their allegiance to the Deep State, and the Deep State has already cast their vote for the candidate that they own, hook, line and sinker. The Hillary Brand®.
4