The Best Teams? Look at the Big Games

Dec 02, 2015 · 31 comments
Nevis07 (CT)
Pats will win the SB. You all know it.
John D (San Diego)
Great column about our noble college protestors, future leaders of America and the known universe! But what's with all the asides about football? This is the New York Times, let's stayed focused on Progressive ideals, Greg.
T O'Rourke MD (Danville, PA)
The weasel coach watch is heating up. Schiano's name is now being mentioned for football factory jobs. Dust off those stuffed weasel file photos.
Steve L (San Diego, Ca)
Congrats to Gregg for putting in a good word for the college protesters. It's easy to pile on with mockery; and more interesting to pay attention to what they're saying.
John (Calgary, AB)
Authentic Index Indicator:

New England is 6-1 at best (Dallas, Jags, Redskins and Dolphins not "authentic"), and have a hard time giving them the two Buffalo games.

Strength of Victory is an interesting stat. In many cases it can be a bit deceiving because a better team will often show a lower Strength of Victory (or Strength of Schedule) because the teams they played include the games they won/lost, compounding that stat. So, Carolina's Strength of Victory is .430...but that's easy to explain since the win/lose average of all of Carolina's opponents includes the 11 games that Carolina won.

With that in mind, Denver's SoV is .515, including the nine wins against those teams.

This means that the teams Carolina beat are 52-58 against everyone but Carolina.
The teams that Denver beat are 51-39 against everyone but Denver.
The teams New England beat are 49-51 against everyone but New England.
The teams Green Bay beat are 35-35 against everyone but Green Bay.

My also very unscientific Authentic Index Indicator points to a Green Bay/Denver final.

And looking at their SoS and SoV, ignore Kansas at your peril
arlie green (Myrtle Beach)
New England's opponenets have a combined winning percentage of 0.479. Only four teams are above 0.500 and three of those are by a single game. I'd be hard pressed to find eight `authentic games' they have played in this year.
Tom (former Las Vegan)
"Johns Hopkins having become to Division III what Stanford is to Division I — an elite academic college that’s also tops on the gridiron." Guess you didn't know that Johns Hopkins is also in Division I in Men's Lacrosse and, starting in 2016, Women's Lacrosse. To boot, JHU is a "sport affiliate" member of the Big 10 (or as I call them, Big 10 (Base 15)) in those two sports. Men's Lacrosse went in last year, when Maryland and Rutgers joined and they needed a sixth team in the sport to have a conference championship (Northwestern only had Women's Lacrosse). With the demise of the conference JHU Women's Lacrosse was in, they've also gone into the Big 10 (Base 15) as their seventh team.
Mitch Gitman (Seattle)
When I clicked on this column, the first thing I did wasn't to start reading it. It was to search for the word "Watt," and then after that for "Kelly." Sure enough, Gregg Easterbrook continues to ride his "Chip Kelly's not such a genius now that he's in the pros" hobby horse. But what about that whole "J.J. Watt is an overrated, loudmouthed product of the NFL hype machine" hobby horse of his in 2015? Hmm, not a single mention of Watt this week, now that he's leading the league in sacks and his Houston Texans are on a four-game winning streak and tied for the lead in their division. Nor could I find any Watt reference in the previous couple TMQ columns.

Listen, I'm by no means a J.J. Watt fan or a Houston Texans fan. I'm just not a fan of sports journalists who are all too quick to jump on players and coaches for being full of themselves and full of it, but then aren't big enough to admit when there's the slightest bit of counter-evidence to their own aura of invincibility. Kinda gets boring.

Did this have to be THE week when Mr. Easterbrook allowed that, hey maybe J.J. Watt's not overrated after all? No, but it didn't have to be yet another week when he got to take another long drink at the Chip Kelly well either.
APS (WA)
" Virginia Tech faithful: Fuente did not keep his word at Memphis; why assume he will keep his word to you? Apparently the Virginia Tech program is changing in more ways than one, from Beamer’s character-first approach to the almighty-dollar mind-set."

I wonder how coach hiring works in NCAA. Do state schools have to follow state rules of job listing, how many candidates to interview, etc? If Fuentes worked his way through the hiring process honestly, that is something. Of course, if there is no hiring process (AD or boosters call who they want and they come running if the $$ is sufficient) then that is different.
APS (WA)
Are your 'authentic games' measurably different from CHFF's 'quality standings'? (record against teams with winning records):

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2015/13/QS/

No doubt that Pats/Broncos game was authentic, even if it hadn't been snowing.
Mark (Maine)
On the Offensive Pass Interference calls... it has not been a point of emphasis this year on anyone other than Gronk. We are averaging 0.202 OPI calls per team per game this year. The rate last year over the full season? 0.205.

Meanwhile, Gronk has been called 5 times. That's more than all other TEAMS but one (Washington - which also has 5). 11 teams have 1 or 0 OPI calls. If it is going to be a point of emphasis, make it a point of emphasis. Don't single out one player. Gronk is not the only one making contact at the top of a route.
Johann Unterkofler (Mexico City)
Another great TMQ Mr. Easterbrook, thank you. You've talked several times about college head coaches who turn to yelling to their players as to shift the blame towards them, instead of taking responsibility of their own wrongdoings. What about Tom Brady yelling his lungs out (several times) at the referee this past Sunday? Was he just trying to shift the blame away from him? Trying to let the public know that it's not his responsibility?

There was also a play - rather a delay of game penalty - where Brady goes just short of using the F word to ONE OF HIS teammates. That's so typical Brady; when anything - doesn't matter how little/insignificant it might be - goes against him, he just snaps and turns to yelling and shift-blaming techniques. Gissele precaução: um movimento errado pode desencadear a ira de Tom!
richk (earth)
Easterbrook for president. or something cool. cause he is AWESOME>
Sam D (Wayne, PA)
I'm ignorant - what do the two numbers in the index mean? Searched online; found nothing about the meanings of the numbers. Thanks.
Fellastine (KCMO)
The first number represent the number of Authentic Games that team has won, the second is the number that team lost. Thus "Green Bay’s 4-3 may mean more than Arizona and Atlanta at 3-1, though the latter represents a higher victory percentage."
Jon Silverberg (Brooklyn)
However, since Easterbrook didn't define an "authentic game" ("you know it when you see it"), I wonder about this concept and hindsight...did any of the teams that beat KC in getting KC to 1-5 play an authentic game? What about the teams that beat Atlanta after Atlanta started losing? Did NE play an authentic game against the then 4-1 Jets, or were they playing inauthentically against the more recent 2-4 Jets? This is a slippery slope.
Fellastine (KCMO)
He's totally the judge for his own metric of which games qualify. He wrote about this a year ago when he was with ESPN.

"Like the companies in the Dow Jones index, the teams in my authentic club are whichever ones I say they are and are weighted based largely on hocus-pocus."

For further explanation: http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/page/TMQWeekNine141104/winners-authentic-...
DD (Los Angeles)
"almighty-dollar mind-set" and "anything that enriches coaches and athletic administrators is kosher" but not ONE word about how some college players go to bed hungry while every parasitic maggot in college sports makes HUGE money on their backs.

I no longer watch college ball. It sickens me that every single person on the sidelines is doing well while the players are controlled like slaves to keep the game "pure".

When that team forced that college president to resign recently, I was hoping they would finally get up the nerve to refuse to take the field unless there were major changes made, but the fat, white, and wealthy who profit most managed to keep them bottled up yet again. Just pathetic.
Gus (San Diego)
He talks a lot about that on his column as well. He believes players should be allowed to make some money outside of the modest stipend they now make. He has mentioned how selling a player's jersey makes the school a ton o f money and the student sees none of it in the past.
JKile (White Haven, PA)
With all the talk about pass interference my question regards down field contact. If no down field contact why do we see D backs pushing and grabbing with no call. The announcers will say something to the effect the refs are letting them play.

On Sunday it looked to me like Sherman gave Antonio Brown a push causing him to lose his balance, it doesn't take much to lose one's balance running at top speed, and then got credit for the interception. The announcers were even perplexed by that call.
Neil (Manhattan)
FantasticColumn!
jhamje (Philadelphia)
On defensive pass interference calls, the ball is marked at the poimnt of the foul the presumption being the ball would have been caught. So why is OPI a 10-yard penalty? Logically, the ball should be awarded to the defensive team at the point of the foul or defensive pass interference should also be a 10-yard penalty. The metric that always throws everything off is the uneven officiating. In the New England-Denver game, a highly questionable holding call negated a NE touchdown. Officiating is the number one factor in the unpredicability of games in my humble opinion.
Lucas (Chicago)
You couldn't do the automatic turnover with OPI, since you have no way of proving a turnover without it. Granted, you can't prove a catch either on DPI, though at least there there's some rationale. That said, I would be open to a change to either a 10 or 15 yard penalty for pass interference regardless of whether it's committed by offense or defense. It forces a little bit more from offenses and tilts the balance back towards defenses, albeit only slightly.
Chris Walsh (Grafton, MA)
I'm a die-hard Patriots fan.

I could complain about bad reffing. But I won't.
I could complain about injuries everywhere. But I won't.
(I will complain about Belichick losing his nerve. Bill, we didn't recognize you.)

Instead, I will praise Denver's Brock Osweiler. That kid's the real deal. He took over for a legend, and plays cool, calm and collected. He probably will not give the job back to Peyton. Very Brady-esque.
Mel (California)
Thanks for only half complaining. I'll likewise refrain from commenting on what insisting on the players following the rules means in the context of the Patriots.
John H. (San Jose, CA)
Great column. Especially the section on college protest and microaggression. it is way too easy to harrumph against the hyperbole and miss the fact that there is real snide cynical race-baiting going on.
Maxwell De Winter (N.Y.C.)
Once the Patriots get their injured players back from injury they will run the table
to the Super Bowl. With a team consisting of second and third stringers they came very close to beating Denver. This speaks volumes! Brady without question is the best player in the NFL! Ridiculous!
DD (Los Angeles)
Of course, visiting teams still insist on having their locker rooms swept for bugs, since New England has now been caught cheating TWICE.

I don't care how good Brady is when the people he plays for are, essentially, mobsters with Kraft investing heavily in those "non-gambling" fantasy gambling sites.

Lets be very clear here: If you put down money that you can lose based on the outcome of a sport, it's gambling. There's no grey area here. GAMBLING. And Kraft is up to his very wealthy neck in it.
Sean Scully (Alexandria VA)
Teams have swept their lockers for bugs and have never found one; ipso facto the Pats don't use bugs.

Pats were caught cheating once for Spygate. They didn't cheat in deflategate. The NFL screwed the whole case up so badly it makes them look like a bunch of morons. The NFL front office didn't even know that football lose air pressure when subjected to cold and wetness. The AEI report clearly destroys the crappy reasoning in the Wells report.

Draft Kings and Fan Duel are gambling sites. Yes Kraft and the NFL are heavily involved in it and I think it is a shame.
William (Rhode Island)
And let's take note of the decline in Brady's performance this year with 'properly' inflated footballs. There's plenty of room for everybody's neck in gambling. Who isn't going to be getting a taste? The rest of the league? LOL Let's not let the facts get in the way of a good story.
Kevin (Denver)
Buck-buck-braw...wait?
With 6:08 remaining, Kubiak had his team launch a field goal from the 3-yard line to make the score 21-17. In bad weather. Against the undefeated Patriots. I thought for sure "Game Over" would be written in TMQ's notebook. However, we all know how that game ended. Could it be the football gods are still angry about PSIcheated or was it the 3 fraidy-cat punts ordered by Belicheck that angered them?