The challenge with all survey data today is sampling error. That is, that the sample does not reflect the population about which you are trying to make inferences. What else do you know about this sample? It is easy to imagine that you got a whole bunch of breitbart readers who enjoy spouting off online but can't pull themselves away from the computer to vote. To the extent that phenomenon is happening, this is a detailed analysis of nothing.
4
Maybe so, but are those people comprising the increased support for Ben Carson actually listening to what he has said? The only person who speaks with his eyes closed or squinting I want to listen to is Gilbert Gottfried. Because his humor speaks the truth. Carson's ideas and beliefs speak, maybe he didn't retire as much as burned out, and no one has intervened.
6
Ben Carson is delusional...the man may be a skilled surgeon (?) but he is just plain nuts. He knows nothing about economics, he doesn't know anything about the difference between fiscal policy and monetary policy, he knows nothing about foreign affairs, he knows nothing about demographics, he knows nothing about education; actually, his grasp of the Constitution is highly suspect and he doesn't' understand the Bill of Rights at all. And he is a bald-face liar based on his own assertions in the last debate about his relationship to products he has endorsed.
What in the h*ll are Republican voters thinking?
What in the h*ll are Republican voters thinking?
28
Yes the GOP should nominate Ben Carson before it's too late, what with his prophesy about the nation descending into anarchy & Obama about to declare martial law & cancel the 2016 election and all...
5
Just wait until the people who think they're voting for him start listening to what comes out of his mouth instead of being transfixed by his lull. He might be able to dupe some desperate evangelicals wanting a voice, but on a national level, especially as election day nears, he'll have a heck of a lot more scrutiny to answer to. I mean, he can't sidestep talking about policy forever.
Then again, the GOP do have to pick a nominee from their current crop of incompetence, unfortunately.
Then again, the GOP do have to pick a nominee from their current crop of incompetence, unfortunately.
8
Here's all 66 match-ups in one grid:
http://i.imgur.com/ECmQRb5.png
http://i.imgur.com/ECmQRb5.png
3
I respect the work that Carson did as a pediatric neurosurgeon. But this is where my respect for him ends.
There is something extremely arrogant about someone assuming they are qualified to be President when they have no experience whatsoever holding public office. If Carson is serious about a a future in public service then he should start by running for some lower level office, e.g. Senate, house, governor, etc., or lobby behind the scenes to be made Surgeon General.
There is something extremely arrogant about someone assuming they are qualified to be President when they have no experience whatsoever holding public office. If Carson is serious about a a future in public service then he should start by running for some lower level office, e.g. Senate, house, governor, etc., or lobby behind the scenes to be made Surgeon General.
9
I have to agree with other commenters here, that this would possibly be better better suited to measure both nominees from each party. I think there was much work involved for such a tiny amount of information from this method. So much work that the pairwise authors of this test method have to believe it pairwise, or throw it in the trash and start over.
1
I think this methodology would work well for "electing" an actual president who has broad based support -- today's top poll leaders (Hillary and Donald) would both be very divisive because both are despised by the other side -- but until that happens, this type of poll is not predictive. The best prediction mechanism is a betting market, where the top candidate are Hillary (53%), Rubio (16%), Bernie (8), Trump (6) and Carson (4). The betting market will also respond to new information with updated odds much more quickly than any poll.
2
Has anyone done a poll measuring Ben Carson against Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders? Just saying.
6
Early front runners haven''t had a particularly successful run, in the last couple of elections. On the other hand, I fully expect to see Clinton or Sanders elected President of the United States. I fully expect Democrats and Independents to clean out congress, and return our country to more broad-based representation.
14
Looking at this, just where is this "Bush is done" stuff coming from ?
Carson and Trump won't win. I wish these pollsters would just get over it and run a poll without those two. Trump isn't even taking this seriously anymore.
That puts Rubio and Bush in a virtual tie for first.
Carson and Trump won't win. I wish these pollsters would just get over it and run a poll without those two. Trump isn't even taking this seriously anymore.
That puts Rubio and Bush in a virtual tie for first.
2
Instead of asking the undecided, maybe they should turn their focus to decided voters. Many of us don't give a hoot what Republican nuts have to say, we won't vote for any of them.
8
No abortions, ever, and no Muslims, ever. Sounds like a plan. A very bad one.
14
I suggest, just do a quick web search for - "Strange things that Dr. Ben Carson has said." -- I think that the reaction of most rational, fair-mined people to many of these bizarre quotes is, "What in the world is this guy thinking?"
So often, Dr. Carson's knee jerk response to many views which he opposes is to employ shamelessly inappropriate, inflated references to Nazis, Hitler, Stalin, Satan, and slavery.
Even when talking about preschool classes, he said, "We live in a culture of indoctrination. It starts in preschool and people try to influence the way people think about things. I think it was Stalin who said, 'Give me the children for a few years and I will have them for life'."
So often, Dr. Carson's knee jerk response to many views which he opposes is to employ shamelessly inappropriate, inflated references to Nazis, Hitler, Stalin, Satan, and slavery.
Even when talking about preschool classes, he said, "We live in a culture of indoctrination. It starts in preschool and people try to influence the way people think about things. I think it was Stalin who said, 'Give me the children for a few years and I will have them for life'."
12
Actually it was the Jesuits who said this.
4
Kinda disappointed with this analysis. You name drop Condorcet, but don't actually runa Condorcet poll. Instead, you do a semi-ranked choice poll, but do not let respondents rank all of their choices. Then you run with the results, treating them as if you had done a round robin pairing of each choice. Just let voters give a range for each candidate, hot or not style. That would have meaningful results. As it is, we have no idea if respondents are enthustiastic about their second or third choices, or if they were just forced to pick least bad alternatives.
3
If Carson wins the general, he can be the first Black president (considering President Obama is racially mixed). Also, if Carson wins the nomination, living in a deeply blue state, I can have a lot of fun needling my lefty friends that if they don't vote for Carson, it means they are racists.
1
Wake up GOP. The deck is now stacked and the options are few. Trump is the only candidate with cross over appeal to Carson voters. No one else even comes close. So you can either learn to embrace Trump now, or watch the nomination go to Carson. Which brand of crazy do you prefer? Which one could sit across the table from Putin?
7
Neither - both would be a disaster!
10
My guess is that Carson will continue to lead until people get a little tired of hearing him and the lead will go back to Trump or Fiorini. These two are literally shredding the GOP and guaranteeing that the Republicans will do worse than McCain or Romney. More and more, the GOP is becoming a coalition party within itself. And the bottom line is that coalition parties cannot effectively govern.
11
I think people forget Hillary's deep negatives and the fact that what seems nutty in Manhattan is mainstream, even among independents, in flyover country. Barack Obama was a fresh faced candidate in 2008, promising hope and change. Hillary is a tired retread with a truth problem and a "the law doesn't apply to me" problem, two things that don't sit well with independents.
2
I'm living in Iowa right now, and can tell you that nutty is still nutty no matter where you are.
17
Well, John, it's not rocket science or brain surgery for that matter. Consider: Hillary or Trump. Hillary or Carson. Hillary or Jeb or Marco or Ted. Hillary is OBVIOUSLY the better choice between any of these "men", negatives or not. I have faith that the country will come to its senses in the end.
9
Consider how much of this poll nonsense has been spewed already. Realize we are STILL over a year away from the actual event. Why does anybody pay attention to this?
10
Why does anyone keep track of sports? It's entertainment, plain and simple.
6
Carson is a devout Seventh Day Adventist. Since the GOP wants to make religion an issue the problem is his commitment to representative government:
“Seventh-day Adventists accept the Bible as their only creed and hold certain fundamental beliefs to be the teaching of the Holy Scriptures.”
How can Carson uphold and defend the Constitution if the Bible is his “only creed.” How will a Carson administration uphold the law, or SCOTUS rulings, like Obergefell v. Hodges , is it differs from his church's teaching and his "creed".
“Seventh-day Adventists accept the Bible as their only creed and hold certain fundamental beliefs to be the teaching of the Holy Scriptures.”
How can Carson uphold and defend the Constitution if the Bible is his “only creed.” How will a Carson administration uphold the law, or SCOTUS rulings, like Obergefell v. Hodges , is it differs from his church's teaching and his "creed".
25
Carson will never become President. Never. Under any scenario. Carson only proves that bright can't trump stupid. And stupid he is. Very very stupid.
19
Carson attracts low information voters like a magnet.
35
This close to how they do the actual election in Argentina.
1
Trump just has to reiterate Carson's response to what he would have done after 9/11, in one of the debates. It was not to get bin Laden, but to become oil independent. LOL. I think Carson supporters have forgotten that.
4
NYT wants anyone, and I mean anyone other than Trump.
Vote Trump or start pressing #2 for English
Vote Trump or start pressing #2 for English
2
I would have a difficult time if the nominees are Trump and Clinton.
I couldn't hold my nose hard enough to vote for either one.
I would either have to sit this election out or write in Jim Webb.
I couldn't hold my nose hard enough to vote for either one.
I would either have to sit this election out or write in Jim Webb.
1
Wake up America. There is a massive demographic shift occurring this generation and the next. If Americans do not stop illegal immigration, every community will become like my home, Orange County CA, home of Disneyland.
We once had a racially diverse community. But the 10s of millions of foreign born Illegal immigrant Hispanics do not respect this diversity. Once they had numbers, they took over and made all other races unwelcome with intimidation, new laws that prevented immigration enforcement, new benefits that encouraged others to make the illegal migration and cost the state $25 Billion annually, the flooding of our schools with 92% hispanic children in the entire county, etc.
American Hispanics are wonderful people. This issue is not about any American.
Illegal immigrants are displacing other races by coming by the millions every year. That is 10X the rate of Legal Immigration, a fact the media ignores.
These foreign Hispanic cultures are not like the American culture. Foreign Hispanics do not value diversity once they are the majority. Many are racist and favor their race over all others.
They view the millions of good 'American' hispanics as a traitor when they oppose what is happening.
They fly the Mexican and other flags and do not believe in the American culture of racial harmony and diversity. Americans here rarely fly their flags anymore to avoid vandalism.
We are prisoners in our own homes.
We once had a racially diverse community. But the 10s of millions of foreign born Illegal immigrant Hispanics do not respect this diversity. Once they had numbers, they took over and made all other races unwelcome with intimidation, new laws that prevented immigration enforcement, new benefits that encouraged others to make the illegal migration and cost the state $25 Billion annually, the flooding of our schools with 92% hispanic children in the entire county, etc.
American Hispanics are wonderful people. This issue is not about any American.
Illegal immigrants are displacing other races by coming by the millions every year. That is 10X the rate of Legal Immigration, a fact the media ignores.
These foreign Hispanic cultures are not like the American culture. Foreign Hispanics do not value diversity once they are the majority. Many are racist and favor their race over all others.
They view the millions of good 'American' hispanics as a traitor when they oppose what is happening.
They fly the Mexican and other flags and do not believe in the American culture of racial harmony and diversity. Americans here rarely fly their flags anymore to avoid vandalism.
We are prisoners in our own homes.
5
Exaggerate much? Orange County has a population of a little over 3M residents. Of that 3M almost 74% are white. 34% are Hispanic which would equal about 1M. I seriously doubt that 92% of school enrollments are Hispanic. I know that math is not one of the Republicans best subjects but your lack of math skills is beyond the pale.
quickfacts.gov
quickfacts.gov
13
Did you forget that most of the "illegals" in California came here to work on the farms in California because they would do work at salaries no American would?
7
Translation: "The Republican dish of the week is puffed pablum, served hot with an oily smooth sauce of sanctimony and smugness garnished with a side of religious lunacy, oversimplification and a wing and a prayer."
49
Dude yuo definitely learned English well at school.. If all Americans could write like U . America would be an amazing country in every shape and form.
3
This is the best the GOP has to offer? Carson may be a non-politician but he comes off as a strange man with some really backward ideas. Trump is such a non-politician that he would be an embarrassment as a politician.
20
No legitimate candidate really wants to end his political career losing in a landslide. Mrs. Clinton stands likely to draw seventy million votes -- a different order of magnitude than anything represented by the GOP polling.
8
When Obama ran against McCain, McCain led in the polls for only 4 days --- the 4 days right after he said Palin would be his running mate (and before people knew anything about her.) Romney did not lead in the polls for even a day. Think about how many people have been insulted or lambasted by the GOP. It is very difficult to see how they can possibly win a national election.
5
Whenever I see these annoying surveys that prompt me for an answer before I can proceed, I don't read the question but click on the first button I see. So I may have accidentally voted for Trump. Sorry, America!
In the survey, the order of the candidates was randomized.
2
I make sure I "support" Trump every chance I get!
3