Perhaps Marco Rubio has become the republican candidate to beat. Not so fast however, if you think he has the wherewithal, the 'mojo', a minimum of knowledge in the field, to back up his bravado and, why not say it, his arrogant stance. In spanish we have a saying that applies to Rubio: "la teori'a se fue' a nadar...pero se ahogo' por falta de pra'ctica" (Theory went swimming...but, lacking practice, drowned). Let us concede he talks fairly well, and sounding convincingly knowledgeable about its subject...but to a close observer, it is an empty front of 'pure wind', classic for a smart politician elbowing his way to relevance before his time. To top it off, he is not as popular to a wide public; instead, propped up by one, perhaps a couple, millionaires that tickled his fancy. Rubio may be young and demanding recognition of his (dubious) talents, but how can we trust in an individual this young and already with a closed mind on science, evolution and climate change? A guy whose rigid and dogmatic ideology prevents him to see reality, and its beauty, and our humanity?
20
Marco Rubio?
Huh?
Yes, it has been clear for a week or two that Rubio has been chosen by the establishment as the most electable puppet. But with Rubio at less than 10% in the polls, they are grasping at straws.
Rubio is still tied for third with Joseph McCar.. er... I mean Ted Cruz.... Well behind Trump and Carson, the anti-establishment candidates...
Rubio can count on Superdelegates, all the propaganda that money can buy, and all the derision the establishment pundits will pile onto his anti-establishment opponents.
But will that be enough?
So far, it has not been enough.
And the wealthy bettors driving the odds, are from the same class that has been wrong all along about Trump, and previously predicted Bush.
Yes, Rubio is the "great puppet-master's hope" - we get it.
Trump is still the most likely nominee, until the polls say otherwise.
Huh?
Yes, it has been clear for a week or two that Rubio has been chosen by the establishment as the most electable puppet. But with Rubio at less than 10% in the polls, they are grasping at straws.
Rubio is still tied for third with Joseph McCar.. er... I mean Ted Cruz.... Well behind Trump and Carson, the anti-establishment candidates...
Rubio can count on Superdelegates, all the propaganda that money can buy, and all the derision the establishment pundits will pile onto his anti-establishment opponents.
But will that be enough?
So far, it has not been enough.
And the wealthy bettors driving the odds, are from the same class that has been wrong all along about Trump, and previously predicted Bush.
Yes, Rubio is the "great puppet-master's hope" - we get it.
Trump is still the most likely nominee, until the polls say otherwise.
7
He has zero chance.
9
If history is any guide, Carson and Trump will not be the Rep. nominee. If they are, they will give the election to Hillary. Only a "moderate" republican like Rubio or a Kasick type has any chance of beating Hillary. History has shown us that, ie since 2008 the country is moving left/center left from right/center right from 1980-2008, so the Reps will have to move more towards the center if they want to win the WH.
2
Why would I vote for anyone who is associated with the Republican Party ? The Party of no... Contaminated by nihilists, circus barkers, nativists, racists, religious fanatics. The core of the Party is controlled by big money and right wing corporate ideologues. Fully a third of its supporters believe that nut cases Trump and Carson are qualified contenders. The GOP took us into Iraq and presided over the near collapse of the economy in 2006-2008. It would be catastrophe if any Republican were elected President in 2016.
22
It would seem that the Republicans are always looking for someone to jump in bed with. Anyone will do. So long as they promise the moon and make them feel they will win the lottery. The lie is so much more appealing than the inconvenient truth. What a party.
4
Think about it: Marco Rubio, thoughtful, articulate, and having new ideas despite his conservatism, versus Hillary Clinton, thoughtful, articulate, having new ideas, and acceptable to business despite her liberalism; Marco Rubio still in his forties; Hillary Clinton pushing 70. Rubio with virtually no negative feelings against him personally and Hillary still with a sizable but shrinking set of negative feeling against her. Both are "firsts". A watershed election. My point: the only avenue the GOP can pursue to beat Hillary is to make its candidate as much of a departure from the staid past as the election of the first woman cannot help but being. If sizable numbers of black and Hispanic as well as white women spurn Hillary for Rubio, you have a contest. I still think Hillary has it wrapped up though. She made her position so clear in the debate relative to Sanders that it couldn't help unifying mainstream middle-class Americans with families not only against Sanders but against any and all GOP comers.
5
I opined that Rubio, if nominated, would easily beat Hillary Clinton. The response of commentators seemed to be that his parents came before Castro rather than after, he was not Mexican, his immigration plan failed, he would be anointed by big corporations etc. No one seemed to focus on Hillary's closeness to Wall Street (except Bernie), the consistent questions about her character in every poll, the total failure of the Clinton/Obama policies vis-a-vis Russia, Iraq, Syria, Libya and the consequent rise of ISIS. Does anyone doubt the origins of money in the Clinton Foundation will not be scrutinized for money from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Banks? Does no one think her vote in favor of the Iraq war will not be resurrected? Rubio, if nominated, will beat her easily.
Do not confuse Cubans with Hispanics. Portoricans despise Cubans who are referred to as gusanos come . The same goes to South and Central Americans. Rubio is popular ONLY among Miami Cubans. No Mexican will ever vote for a Cubano gusano.... ever!
2
As it should be.
Rubio is the candidate democrats fear the most because he has that mixture of youth and personality that JFK, Reagan and Bill Clinton had.
Parties rarely get a third term. But if Rubio is the nominee the contrast between him and old lying Hillary would be devastating.
Rubio is the candidate democrats fear the most because he has that mixture of youth and personality that JFK, Reagan and Bill Clinton had.
Parties rarely get a third term. But if Rubio is the nominee the contrast between him and old lying Hillary would be devastating.
Since this is all speculation anyway, my betting is that a surprise is coming. I have no clue as to what it will be. But it will occur in New Hampshire, not Iowa!
Rubio will be a big mistake. His Tea Party background and his financial mistakes combined with the fact that he really is just not smart will cause him to lose badly.
7
Rubio can't beat Hillary because more than 51% of voters want Social Security unchanged and "free health care". These voters (many of them already on social security) feel in there hearts that any Democrate is most likely to keep the Ponzi scheme going as long as it can. No Repubican can win in 2016. You can take that to the bank.
1
Whomever is chosen, it's fitting that a Florida Man represent the GOP.
1
Jeb! is obviously toast.
8
Absolutely. If I had $10 to lose, I would put it on Bush; if I needed to win, I would put it on Rubio for sure. He's just sitting there for the others to implode.
The only candidate instantly recognized by one name only - Kasich!
Cruz?
Penélope Cruz? - I wish.
Victor Cruz?
Fred Cruz?
Oh, Ted Cruz. Who?
Walker?
Healthcare Aluminum Folding Walker?
Walker, Texas Ranger?
Paul Walker?
Scott? Who?
Paul?
Paul McCartney?
Paul Walker?
Ru-Paul?
Rand? Really ???
Rubio?
Paulina Rubio? I wish.
Ricky Rubio?
Marco? Polo?
Bush?
George?
Gob?
Jeb? President Jeb? Ummm, no thank you.
Donald?
Donald Duck?
Ronald McDonald?
Trump? Ok, I'll give you Trump. And you can keep him.
Vote Kasich!
Cruz?
Penélope Cruz? - I wish.
Victor Cruz?
Fred Cruz?
Oh, Ted Cruz. Who?
Walker?
Healthcare Aluminum Folding Walker?
Walker, Texas Ranger?
Paul Walker?
Scott? Who?
Paul?
Paul McCartney?
Paul Walker?
Ru-Paul?
Rand? Really ???
Rubio?
Paulina Rubio? I wish.
Ricky Rubio?
Marco? Polo?
Bush?
George?
Gob?
Jeb? President Jeb? Ummm, no thank you.
Donald?
Donald Duck?
Ronald McDonald?
Trump? Ok, I'll give you Trump. And you can keep him.
Vote Kasich!
3
Whoever the GOP puts up will end up like a bug on the windshield of HRC's limo as she pulls into the White House.
8
From one utter silliness to another. Bush always had zero, absolutely zero chance, and the Democratic press wishfully listed him as the front-runner. In 2012 at this time, Cain was the leader Carson is identical,
Rubio is better. Maybe one chance in a thousand. This country is going to elect a 2nd generation American with far less experience than the inexperienced Obama, but like Obama does have a strange first and last name. The United States is going to elect a second straight affirmative action President after the public thinks him a basic failure, especially the whites??? The all white Republicans are going to nominate him because he is for amnesty to illegal immigrants?????
The nominee is almost surely going to be Kasich or Christie. Now that Hillary is guaranteed the nomination unless she has to make an Agnew deal to avoid indictment, the Republicans are going to nominate an outlyer and give her the presidency???? We have a 8-year cycle between Democrats and Republicans and the public is going to elect another Democrats when some 70% think we are on the wrong path?????
Democrats, dream on.
Rubio is better. Maybe one chance in a thousand. This country is going to elect a 2nd generation American with far less experience than the inexperienced Obama, but like Obama does have a strange first and last name. The United States is going to elect a second straight affirmative action President after the public thinks him a basic failure, especially the whites??? The all white Republicans are going to nominate him because he is for amnesty to illegal immigrants?????
The nominee is almost surely going to be Kasich or Christie. Now that Hillary is guaranteed the nomination unless she has to make an Agnew deal to avoid indictment, the Republicans are going to nominate an outlyer and give her the presidency???? We have a 8-year cycle between Democrats and Republicans and the public is going to elect another Democrats when some 70% think we are on the wrong path?????
Democrats, dream on.
It is absolutely absurd that there is an actual market, in which real money exchanges hands, for the Presidential candidates, and even more absurd that people give any real credence to its predictive value. It's just more evidence of money corrupting politics.
3
Mr Wolfers seems to love to quote numbers even when their meaning isn't clear. It doesn't seem to much matter what the subject is.
For example, on April 5, Mr Wolfers had this to say about the economy's future:
'I like to think of this as an index that tells economists how much they need to change their minds, and in what direction. And it says that it is time to revisit earlier optimism, and to warn about the possibility that the recovery may be at risk of stalling.'
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/04/upshot/jobs-report-adds-to-evidence-of...
Really? The economy seems to be doing reasonably well. And I haven't seen a retraction yet, Mr Wolfers.
Economists need to be careful when they pretend to be scientists and play with numbers. They should read Popper's 'Logic of Scientific Discovery' if they're interested in understanding why economics is not a science.
For example, on April 5, Mr Wolfers had this to say about the economy's future:
'I like to think of this as an index that tells economists how much they need to change their minds, and in what direction. And it says that it is time to revisit earlier optimism, and to warn about the possibility that the recovery may be at risk of stalling.'
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/04/upshot/jobs-report-adds-to-evidence-of...
Really? The economy seems to be doing reasonably well. And I haven't seen a retraction yet, Mr Wolfers.
Economists need to be careful when they pretend to be scientists and play with numbers. They should read Popper's 'Logic of Scientific Discovery' if they're interested in understanding why economics is not a science.
I live in Florida. I am Cuban and I know my candidates. I do not respect Mr. Rubio because he lied his way in the previous elections and even today when speaking about his father's past veils the truth of his story. His father arrived in 1956 where Fidel was in Mexico, did not leave Cuba due to Castro but to seek better employment in the US following the same path that thousands of poor Mexicans and south americans start when coming to the US looking for menial jobs, fleeing fro poverty and violence. Sen. Rubio continues giving the impression his father is a Cuban in exile due to Castro, though it has been proven this is not so. By revising the date and reason for his parents' emigration, Rubio ingratiated himself with the dominant Cuban exile factions and placed his political narrative into a Reagan-esque storyline about freedom.The significance of this story shines a spotlight on the senator's moral character. Rubio in full awareness of his parents' past, chose to lie, adapting himself to the simplistic mantras of the conflict, taking advantage of the dominant propaganda in Miami, and exploiting the trauma experienced by some of his constituents.
Undoubtedly telling audiences that his father came to US seeking a better world would have put his father Shame to a man who is not true to his origin and uses his past to trick those who suffered persecution exploiting their suffering and their longing for their country and their loved ones left behind.
Undoubtedly telling audiences that his father came to US seeking a better world would have put his father Shame to a man who is not true to his origin and uses his past to trick those who suffered persecution exploiting their suffering and their longing for their country and their loved ones left behind.
47
there's also a very wide distinction between being popular with Cuban voters in FL and with hispanics/latino's nationwide. Rubio doesn't command any attention of these voters, but as usual white america lumps all latinos together as if it was a homogenous group.
2
As an Independant voter, I agree with the analysis of Rubio's improvement as the Republican nominee. As I have not been happy with the direction of our country these past Obama years and I didn't think the country would survive 4 years of the typical Clinton shenanigans, I have seriously been following the Republicans. I have been unhappy with Trump and Carson because of some of their outrageous comments and observations. I have been disappointed in Bush, my origimal choice, because he does not seem strong enough to deal with the right wing of the party and, at first I was leery of Rubio because his limited time on the national scene reminded me too much of President Obama's background but I have since changed my mind because of a couple of his speeches during the campaign and comments he had made as a member on the Foreign Relations Senate committee. He seems very savvy and seems to be strong with the hispanic voters and as a fresh face is a positive comparison with Mrs Clinton.
1
I wonder why people don't want Obama - Clinton era results. Less war, more jobs, more prosperity. The only downside of those eras is the hate that is generated from the haters - typically right wing extremists, a.k.a. mainstream Republicans.
If the GOP would love the country instead of hating, things would be better.
If the GOP would love the country instead of hating, things would be better.
12
Quite possibly a Rubio/Kasich ticket. Rubio is an ideal Republican candidate in that he is easily packaged and sold, he is accustomed to leasing himself, and he is a professional politician who is gradually learning the subtleties of working at the national level. Kasich would be the seasoned operator familiar with management and seeing legislative-executive relations from both sides. The business class would be comfortable with Kasich overseeing the levers of management while Rubio holds press conferences. And Kasich would offer the hope for Ohio's electoral votes and perhaps reinforce electoral fortunes elsewhere in the Midwest.
7
Kasich/Rubio
4
This is all very logical and quite likely a winning strategy, but I hope you're wrong. The fact that the Republican base seems to be immune to logic at least gives some room for optimism.
3
The market is wrong and is hoping that Donald Trump cannot maintain his lead over the crazies.
Rubio does have a chance but Trump can destroy him as he did Bush by name calling. Rubio does not have the strong hinterland like Bush and he ballesd up the immigration debate.
6/1 (7.0) on Trump is the biggest 'gimmie' bet this year and must be taken. Yes there is a chance that Trump will get bored and walk away, but, why should he walk away when it is clear the GOP have no one with enough gravitas to impose themselves over the party? Even Paul Ryan needed to be begged to become Speaker of the House - the third most powerful position in the country...!
Rubio does have a chance but Trump can destroy him as he did Bush by name calling. Rubio does not have the strong hinterland like Bush and he ballesd up the immigration debate.
6/1 (7.0) on Trump is the biggest 'gimmie' bet this year and must be taken. Yes there is a chance that Trump will get bored and walk away, but, why should he walk away when it is clear the GOP have no one with enough gravitas to impose themselves over the party? Even Paul Ryan needed to be begged to become Speaker of the House - the third most powerful position in the country...!
9
Trump is going to fade in the stretch in every state that has a primary. Just like he is doing in Iowa. Even Red Staters know he is a buffoon. They've been enjoying the show, and the opportunity to hear a blowhard say what they've been thinking, but even they can see how tiresome he becomes with the passage of just a few months.
"The market is wrong and is hoping that Donald Trump cannot maintain his lead over the crazies."
Eh? They are all in the same room, methinks.
Eh? They are all in the same room, methinks.
I would suggest your analysis says something about the lacking ( of gravitas, sanity, policy, etc ) from which the GOP is suffering in ever increasing amounts.
Polls as demographically biased as the prediction markets would be ignored.
6
Everyone is asking me what the Republican ticket will be next year, even though no one believes me.
It will be Marco Rubio and Kelly Ayotte.
They are both relatively young. Rubio is 44, and Ayotte is 47. (She is the Republican senator of New Hampshire.)
It will be Marco Rubio and Kelly Ayotte.
They are both relatively young. Rubio is 44, and Ayotte is 47. (She is the Republican senator of New Hampshire.)
2
kelly ayotte is a grey, dour, mean spirited chicken hawk. completely unfit for the national stage. no curbside appeal whatsoever, adds nothing to the ticket (except for being a woman, i suppose).
susan martinez, on the other hand ....
susan martinez, on the other hand ....
Rubio's tax plan looks like it was written by his billionaire sugar daddy. The super wealthy enjoy a huge windfall. It's Trickle Down Economics all over again.
36
Poor Jeb!
That exclamation point was the nail in his political coffin.
Can't wait for more Jeb! eulogies.
That exclamation point was the nail in his political coffin.
Can't wait for more Jeb! eulogies.
28
Jeb has no 'executive experience'. Jeb's only experience is as sleazy politician.
15
And this distinguishes him from Rubio how?
It's really sad for competent Republican candidates like Chris Christie or Jeb Bush that posses real gravitas, being pushed to the sidelines by the likes of Donald Trump and Ben Carson. It really shows how crazy the constituents have gotten and they will implode and kill themselves eventually. #LaughingStock
5
Christie is "competent"?! Lots of us here in New Jersey -- especially those of us who have looked for jobs in the state in the past few years -- would beg to differ.
"...competent Republican candidates like Chris Christie or Jeb Bush..."!
Have they changed the definition of "competent" lately? The entire field from top to bottom are a bunch of clowns scurrying out of the clown car at the circus called the Republican Party.
Have they changed the definition of "competent" lately? The entire field from top to bottom are a bunch of clowns scurrying out of the clown car at the circus called the Republican Party.
1
Wait...you're putting the words "Christie" and "gravitas" in the same sentence? In the second Republican debate, Christie played the part of Big Daddy, telling Donnie and Carly to stop bickering. I was waiting for him to send them to bed without dinner.
2
Why should we not assume these betting markets are rigged? There is certainly enough Republican money out there to consider betting for Rubio -- or any other candidate -- as a campaign expenditure no different from advertising.
Bet on your candidate enough, and he forges into the market lead generating huge free publicity such as this column and phony perception of momentum.
Bet on your candidate enough, and he forges into the market lead generating huge free publicity such as this column and phony perception of momentum.
13
It is somewhat the opposite. Just like a sporting event, any given bet is fixed but over time the more money bet on a candidate, the lower the return. Also betting on a candidate does not need to reflect that the bettor supports the candidate, but simply that he believes that money can be made. This is why some people feel that betting is more predictive than polls as people will not lie with their money. I also don't think that active campaign operatives would see a good return on investment here along with the risk to the campaign of being uncovered doing something illegal for Americans.
1
TH, I don't think the issue of a campaign being discovered doing something illegal is pertinent, because it would be done by supporters divorced from the "official" campaign who, if caught doing something illegal, would easily be disavowed by the campaign. In any case, very sadly, it takes a lot of corruption before most people even bother to take it seriously anymore, inasmuch as the political class is viewed as such.
As to your thoughts on betting returns: I don't see it as a bet in the ordinary sense. To those laying out the money, it would merely be considered a campaign expenditure, though if their guy wins, they do make money. The goal is not to make money, but to manipulate the image of popular momentum, so the odds becoming less in your favor is a function of the implied popularity and your success.
As to your thoughts on betting returns: I don't see it as a bet in the ordinary sense. To those laying out the money, it would merely be considered a campaign expenditure, though if their guy wins, they do make money. The goal is not to make money, but to manipulate the image of popular momentum, so the odds becoming less in your favor is a function of the implied popularity and your success.
1
Corporate America ultimately pick the Republican candidate, who must prove through previous behavior he will be pliant and grateful for its support and with the added bonus of a name that may attract some Hispanic voters as well as maybe pulling in a substantial home state's electors.
Rubio fills the bill, although he really is no more qualified to be president than crazy Trump or pious Carson.
Rubio fills the bill, although he really is no more qualified to be president than crazy Trump or pious Carson.
22
How will that happen, if all the primary voters consider 'corporate America' to be a bunch of ruthless billionaires who have shipped all the manufacturing jobs overseas to enrich themselves? Their support sure hasn't helped Bush any, and has led to successful attacks on his candidacy by the others who are running.
1
I have said for about 2 months now that Rubio WILL BE the GOP nominee. There was a time that I actually thought that the monster named Carly Fiorina might be the running mate but I'm not sure about that anymore. REGARDLESS of who the nominee is, the GOP has, thankfully, just about fully imploded and I don't think they have a prayer in hell of winning the general election against Hillary and that's a GOOD THING. Still, I'm fully convinced that Rubio will come out as the candidate of his party.
17
It will be fun to watch the debate between baby face Rubio and the master, Hillary Rodham Clinton.
1
Living overseas I can tell you that foreigners have very little understanding of the US or its politics. They see Rubio and Bush as rational, establishment picks. But the national mood of Republicans is choose any non-politician as nominee after going with the establishment pick the last two elections and getting burned miserably. Unless he gets bored and drops out, Trump will be the nominee, and you can take that to the bank.
5
I've been saying this for months. Rubio, Bush, and Kasich are the only candidates with a shot because they are the ones closest to the center (which isn't close but still). No one really knows Kasich, and Bush's name is worn out it's welcome. Rubio is a fresh face and he says everything they want to hear. None of his positions are actually new of course; they are incredibly light on new actually. Just look at his energy plan, it's the same one the GOP has had for 30 years and his foreign policy is, might makes right. He's also incredibly arrogant and his record of accomplishment is pretty sparse but for GOP voters, that won't matter.
Even though Bush comes off as worse than Romney in terms of charisma and excitement, it might be hard for Rubio to win the nomination. Old people are excited in Trump and Carson. Once they realize those two have a snowball's chance in hell in beating Hillary, they'll come back to see who the two sure thing picks are...and old people don't like young people without a record; they'll pick Bush. It'll be the wrong choice though because if anyone has a shot at beating Hillary, it's Rubio.
Even though Bush comes off as worse than Romney in terms of charisma and excitement, it might be hard for Rubio to win the nomination. Old people are excited in Trump and Carson. Once they realize those two have a snowball's chance in hell in beating Hillary, they'll come back to see who the two sure thing picks are...and old people don't like young people without a record; they'll pick Bush. It'll be the wrong choice though because if anyone has a shot at beating Hillary, it's Rubio.
1
Rubio has a shot at beating Hillary?
You did see how she handled that odd lot of juvenile delinquents in the Benghazi/Star Chamber hearing this week?
You did see how she handled that odd lot of juvenile delinquents in the Benghazi/Star Chamber hearing this week?
She'd shine her shoes with him.
Does anybody else consider a vote for Trump or Carson just another way for the voter to say, "I don't know?"
4
I think it's another way to say "I don't care ... about the facts or the future. I'm mad now."
13
The Republic party race is a game of dope of the month. Given enough time, every single one of the sixteen, fifteen (how many is it now) wrestling in the muck will emerge on top of the heap.
8
Good news for Democrats!
All that is needed is to expose the fact that he can't manage his own personal finances and that he depends on his billionaire Sugar Daddy.
But there's more.
Hillary would whip him in the presidential debates.
All that is needed is to expose the fact that he can't manage his own personal finances and that he depends on his billionaire Sugar Daddy.
But there's more.
Hillary would whip him in the presidential debates.
19
Did you read today's article about saving for college? Rubio is putting aside money to send his kids to college, while Democrat Martin O'Malley didn't save and had to borrow $340K to send just two of his four kids.
Rubio does enjoy the good life, but is not particularly extravagant in this day and age. Voters may well be sympathetic with politicians who don't have millions of dollars, and struggle to pay bills.
Rubio does enjoy the good life, but is not particularly extravagant in this day and age. Voters may well be sympathetic with politicians who don't have millions of dollars, and struggle to pay bills.
I believe Rubio will beat Hillary and it won't be close. He is charismatic, a great orator and debater and has a storybook history of immigrant parents, college loans, and good looks. It will be a generational contest against someone not trusted by the majority of Americans, her popularity among Democrats notwithstanding. She may gain the woman's vote, lose the male vote and see severe erosion in the Hispanic vote to a Senator who has espoused and proposed comprehensive immigration reform. Having a woman as president would be nice but not this woman and not in 2016.
5
"After two news organizations reported his parents moved to the United States in 1956, his spokesman acknowledged that the bio was wrong. It was updated to say, "Marco was born in Miami in 1971 to Cuban exiles who first arrived in the United States in 1956."
There are a lot of stories that may be stories in the Rubio history. It will be fun watching them get exposed one by one.
There are a lot of stories that may be stories in the Rubio history. It will be fun watching them get exposed one by one.
46
I don't think nominating Rubio is likely to cause a "severe erosion in the Hispanic vote." I think those who predict that aren't taking into consideration that the majority of the "Hispanic" voters in the U.S. are Mexican-American, not Cuban-American, and don't realize that a majority of Americans of Mexican origin have good reason not to see Cubans as particularly relevant to their concerns. Their concerns are very different from the concerns of the relatively small numbers of Cubam emiogrés.
21
I agree with Clinton versus Rubio being a likely matchup but it is sure to be very close. There are only a few states that are truly in play and the Repubs need virtually all of them to win. Clinton is a formidable debater; Rubio has never been up against anyone in her league.
7
Whichever one of the not-so-stable candidates wins will not stand a chance against Hillary Clinton. Dr Carson doesn't believe in evolution, wants to abolish Medicare, believes that the ACA idea originated with Vladimir Lenin!, believes in a 6-day creation, etc. Who knows what the others believe except that they are against abortion, or the right of women to choose. I have to ask myself how it would be possible in America one of these idiots could be president.
54
Winner by default! What a great win that would be!
8
Everyone looks attractive in soft focus and low light. With the exception of Mr. Trump, the less Republicans know about candidates--presuming they know them at all--the more they like them. When the bright lights turn on Mr. Rubio we will see if he stands up to scrutiny. That Trump and Carson remain so popular among Republicans despite neither having any traditional qualifications for President means that Republicans have redefined "qualifications" drastically. It is all about attitude, not about experience or knowledge or character. Using past patterns to predict who will be successful in a party that has changed the rules may not be successful.
26
and right now I can get the Redskins to win the Super Bowl at 250:1
6
Trump is looking better and better.
If I were a betting man I'd put my money on Cruz, his is a crazy I understand. Rubio doesn't even reach the low intellectual expectations which saw George W. Bush elected.
If I were a betting man I'd put my money on Cruz, his is a crazy I understand. Rubio doesn't even reach the low intellectual expectations which saw George W. Bush elected.
20
Rubio is still too far right, but maybe young enough to moderate himself over time.
6
This is great news for those of us who crave a return to sanity. Marco "I'm not a scientist, man!" Rubio is in bed with the billionaire Norman Braman; Jeb! is sinking under the weight of the Bush family's anchor; Donald 's Trump's morning star is fading as the Sun overtakes it. Ben Carson is studying the history of Nazi Germany with no understanding. Ted Cruz is setting fire to the Stars and Stripes. Carly Fiorina is auditioning sheep for her as spots. Well, with a crew like that behind him, Rubio's only consideration is his vice-presidential pick. The guess here: Michele Bachmann or Sarah Palin. Who ever gave Rubio credit for smarts?
61
Arnold Rothstein had a winning bet on Herbert Hoover that would have brought him millions, but he never got to collect it as he was shot on election day 1928. There was a lot of action to cover a little less than 10 months after Hoover took office too. Bet the same thing would happen under Rubio.
At this rate Trump will stay in the race just to make a killing on the British turf accountants.
At this rate Trump will stay in the race just to make a killing on the British turf accountants.
17
The GOP nomination won't be won in Iowa or New Hampshire, This party is fragmented and infested with favorite sons. I don't think the nomination will be settled until the primaries are finished and negotiations start before the GOP convention. This is a fight for control of the Republican Party. It would be foolish to dismiss any candidate. This is a marathon not a sprint.
18
@Daedalus - it's easy to get caught in a maze listening to pundits and oddsmakers who think this is a race being run by old rules. Trump is the Minotaur. But, Rubio is not Theseus.
9
Interesting. But why are there no arbitragers forcing the several markets to converge?
4
Foreigners have still not figured out how crazy the GOP has gotten. Hence their incredulity at the candidacies of Trump and Carson.
40
Come on Neel,
When GOP held their first (All Candidate?) national debate Canada's newspaper of record sent their theater critic to cover the spectacle. The whole world is watching the spectacle and is very very afraid. Is this really a Zombie Apocalypse?
After McCain and Palin we figured things couldn't get much worse and here it is 2015 and Killer Clowns from Outer Space is starting to look rather insightful.
What you are seeing is the audience reaction to their first time at a Samuel Beckett play. What in heavens is going on?
When GOP held their first (All Candidate?) national debate Canada's newspaper of record sent their theater critic to cover the spectacle. The whole world is watching the spectacle and is very very afraid. Is this really a Zombie Apocalypse?
After McCain and Palin we figured things couldn't get much worse and here it is 2015 and Killer Clowns from Outer Space is starting to look rather insightful.
What you are seeing is the audience reaction to their first time at a Samuel Beckett play. What in heavens is going on?
9
He remains in single digits with only a tiny fraction of his very modest support
enthusiastic about him. Anyone betting on Bush isn't factoring his catastrophic position among the Republican electorate. Time, is very rapidly slipping away. The race should be concluded in virtually all respects by the middle of March.
Rubio, on the other hand, is well positioned to mobilize the half of the primary electorate who aren't sold on Trump and Carson. One can easily envision Rubio moving to parity with the front runners while other conventional pols and "normal" candidates fade away. Alternatively, Trump may succeed in subtly damaging Rubio's image, portraying him as too young, too immature to be President. Time will soon tell.