Can we say climate change yet?
Pray for the victims of the hurricane and those who deny climate change.
Pray for the victims of the hurricane and those who deny climate change.
Clearly, weather did not occur before global warming.
Something about this whole thing smells like false alarm. So we either can't figure out what weather is all about or we are in the selling newspaper and watching the news business (including lots of advertising obviously).
Better to be in denial. Then, you don't have to deal with bothersome, proactive decisions that may reduce risk.
1
A routine tropical storm approaching a heavily populated US shore blows up into a major hurricane within a few hours catching meteorologists by surprise and giving coastal residents insufficient time to prepare/evacuate. It's only a matter of when.
As the storm (or remnants of) reach the Texas Coast I hope those who don't believe the scientists that climate change is due to global warming etc. will rethink their position.
1
You could tell that the "strongest hurricane ever known to assault the Western Hemisphere" wasn't going to live up to the hype from the disappointed looks on the faces of television reporters stationed Friday evening on Mexican beaches. Patricia was actually the strongest hurricane measured in the Western Hemisphere since about 1970, when accurate satellite measurements of wind speeds became possible for the first time.
" Everybody knows there are hurricanes in October "...But such powerful one so late October is notable because north of the equator hurricane season ends when October ends Is the power of this storm and the sudden explosive rapidity with which it reached that power connected to the much warmer than normal waters due a very powerful El Nino ? Which itself may be enhanced by the water in this part of the Pacific having already warmed some due to global warming.
So far it appears there are no deaths from this hurricane,which is wonderful news if true.My deepest thoughts are with you who bore this storm as you begin the long task of putting your lives back together.
So far it appears there are no deaths from this hurricane,which is wonderful news if true.My deepest thoughts are with you who bore this storm as you begin the long task of putting your lives back together.
Climate change is certainly taking place; climate in fact never stops changing. It is also a certainty that the burning of Carbon has an impact on that change. It is however beyond hubris to present any given storm as evidence of that change. It has all the scientific value of sticking your head out the window and reading the Old Farmer’s Almanac.
Citing 150-year-old records with respect to climate is a most unscientific exercise and displays seriously misplaced faith and a severe lack of critical thinking. The entries in the 150-year-old log don’t bear any resemblance to each other. The first hundred years the observer tapped the glass and wrote the number down, today’s entries are the sum of thousands of highly accurate sensors measuring dozens of variables on land, sea and air, together with satellite imagery.
Those people citing science and this storm as evidence have all the credence of a guy a ringing a bell and wearing a sandwich sign reading the end of world is neigh. Briefly amusing - easily ignored.
Citing 150-year-old records with respect to climate is a most unscientific exercise and displays seriously misplaced faith and a severe lack of critical thinking. The entries in the 150-year-old log don’t bear any resemblance to each other. The first hundred years the observer tapped the glass and wrote the number down, today’s entries are the sum of thousands of highly accurate sensors measuring dozens of variables on land, sea and air, together with satellite imagery.
Those people citing science and this storm as evidence have all the credence of a guy a ringing a bell and wearing a sandwich sign reading the end of world is neigh. Briefly amusing - easily ignored.
1
I remember sitting through tropical storm Floyd watching my windows bow in and out while the rain was driven into my home by the force of the wind. For several hours, wondering if my windows would exlode. Sounds mild huh? I would never sit through even a Cat 1 after that night.
1
This aftermath is the result of prayers from all over the world. I am grateful to God and the govt of Mexico for showing how to prepare and survive such a massive hurricane. Mexico was wrapped in the arms of the Virgin last night and continues to receive my thoughts and relief. Hallelujah!!
My condolences to those who suffered losses because of this storm. Hurricanes are no laughing matter, as we have all learned. However, while watching prime-time news in the Seattle area last night (6pm Pacific Time, 9 pm Eastern Time) the storm had already dropped to a level 3 so all the FEAR was not necessary. Caution is good - FEAR is not. I did have to laugh thinking about how different the news would have been Friday night if Ms. Hillary Rodham Clinton had not "weathered the interrogation storm" the nasty U.S. House of Representatives supposed "permanent select" committee piled on her Thursday. Her rise above and beyond the challenge took the wind right out of the right-wing media sails. Good Job, Ms. Rodham Clinton!
1
If it were me I wouldn't take this storm lying down. I'd get out and fight it instead of cowering in some windowless room at the core of a stout building. I'd say to the people around me; "Hey, i may not make it but this storm can't get us all if we fight back."
And how far back do these "records" go anyway. For all we know a 200 MPH wind might have just been a stiff breeze back in medieval times. After all, the Aztecs did use a lot of stone in their buildings and the pyramids are pretty aerodynamic. And why is a 30 foot tide so unusual? The Bay of Fundy has 50 foot tides but the NYT isn't putting that on the front page.
Also, who do these so called "climatologists" really work for? Are they just shills for companies making impact resistant windows? I bet they even cherry-pick the wind speed readings to maximize the average; it's probably closer to only 190 MPH. Wake up people! If we listen to the cult of climate change our whole way of life could be impacted beyond recognition. What kind of legacy would that be to leave for our grandchildren?
And how far back do these "records" go anyway. For all we know a 200 MPH wind might have just been a stiff breeze back in medieval times. After all, the Aztecs did use a lot of stone in their buildings and the pyramids are pretty aerodynamic. And why is a 30 foot tide so unusual? The Bay of Fundy has 50 foot tides but the NYT isn't putting that on the front page.
Also, who do these so called "climatologists" really work for? Are they just shills for companies making impact resistant windows? I bet they even cherry-pick the wind speed readings to maximize the average; it's probably closer to only 190 MPH. Wake up people! If we listen to the cult of climate change our whole way of life could be impacted beyond recognition. What kind of legacy would that be to leave for our grandchildren?
6
So it wasn't as bad as they made it to be eh? Was the media exaggerating it just to sell newspapers? It goes from category 5 to 2 in a short time and it has been labeled the worse ever? This happens every time. I suppose they want to be prepared eh? Like crying wolf.....
4
No, they didn't exaggerate anything. People will be affected quite adversely. I only assume you didn't read the article. Or perhaps on your island you don't care what may happen to wonderful people thousands of miles away. I hope you're the only heartless idiot over there.
So you think the official weather services and storm centers of two nations make up data to help the media sell their products?
Good grief!
Good grief!
The following analogy question will appear on the upcoming SAT
Greenhouse gases: Weather =
a. Hurricanes: Tornadoes
b. Deniers: Global Warming
c. Steroids: Baseball
d. Coal: Wind
Good luck. Please use a No. 2 pencil
Greenhouse gases: Weather =
a. Hurricanes: Tornadoes
b. Deniers: Global Warming
c. Steroids: Baseball
d. Coal: Wind
Good luck. Please use a No. 2 pencil
5
Correct answer is
(e) 0 : 17
See, greenhouse gases supposedly (although not so much recently) increase the global average temperature. But all the theory of global climate modeling states conclusively that most of the warming will happen at the poles, while the equatorial regions won't see much of an increase in temperature. This poses a problem for linking global temperature increases with increasing hurricane or storm intensity. Why?
Because storms - including hurricanes - are caused by a Difference In Temperatures. Cold air from the poles meets warm air from the equator. Basic weather science. The greater the difference = the more intense the storm. History has demonstrated this, and physics and thermodynamics and fluid dynamics have borne this out.
So, if the poles get warmer by 10 degrees, and the equator gets warmer by only 2 degrees, that means the Difference in their temperatures Decreases. And that means: Hurricanes get less intense, not more.
The idea that there will be more or more powerful hurricanes due to greenhouse gases affecting temperature is ludicrous.
(e) 0 : 17
See, greenhouse gases supposedly (although not so much recently) increase the global average temperature. But all the theory of global climate modeling states conclusively that most of the warming will happen at the poles, while the equatorial regions won't see much of an increase in temperature. This poses a problem for linking global temperature increases with increasing hurricane or storm intensity. Why?
Because storms - including hurricanes - are caused by a Difference In Temperatures. Cold air from the poles meets warm air from the equator. Basic weather science. The greater the difference = the more intense the storm. History has demonstrated this, and physics and thermodynamics and fluid dynamics have borne this out.
So, if the poles get warmer by 10 degrees, and the equator gets warmer by only 2 degrees, that means the Difference in their temperatures Decreases. And that means: Hurricanes get less intense, not more.
The idea that there will be more or more powerful hurricanes due to greenhouse gases affecting temperature is ludicrous.
The travel section reports that the airlines and resorts are waiving cancellation fees for those who choose not to go to Puerto Vallarta during the hurricane. Kind of thought that would go without saying.
4
Val in Brooklyn, NY
I'd like to be able to sleep tonight. Could the NYT or whomever, please be kind enough to tell me what my family and I can do to help? We're all in this together. I'm no troll and I'm quite serious.
Thanks.
Submitted 10-23-15@10:03 p.m. EST
I'd like to be able to sleep tonight. Could the NYT or whomever, please be kind enough to tell me what my family and I can do to help? We're all in this together. I'm no troll and I'm quite serious.
Thanks.
Submitted 10-23-15@10:03 p.m. EST
1
Typhoon Tip in 1979 was stronger - Hit 870 mb and killed 13 U.S. Marines at Camp Fuji near Tokyo. 880 mb storm is still very very extraordinary. Storm surge will be devastating.
4
My thoughts are with all of our neighbors in Mexico. May they be safe throughout this hurricane.
And when we attempt to reach out and help them, may the Republican deniers get the heck out of the way and, for once, just once...show some humanity...
And when we attempt to reach out and help them, may the Republican deniers get the heck out of the way and, for once, just once...show some humanity...
10
I think the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale may need to extend the upper limit beyond Category 5 as global warming accelerates.
7
All of these "unprecedented" weather events are becoming quite precedented.
12
For those who doubt the effects of climate change, welcome to the new normal. We can expect storms like this for the foreseeable future, along with heavier winter snows, extreme summer rainfall and summer droughts. It isn't "global warming" it's "climate change."
It's time to admit we brought this on ourselves, and start working to reverse the effects. Otherwise, we can consider past extremes to be the baseline.
It's time to admit we brought this on ourselves, and start working to reverse the effects. Otherwise, we can consider past extremes to be the baseline.
18
Then how do you explain that the number of major hurricanes hitting the U.S. has actually decreased rather than increased over the last number of years, contrary to what global warming alarmists predicted?
The good news is that the arrival of this Hurricane will not be a surprise. At least folks in the effected areas know that the hurricane is coming. Another good news about such violent hurricane is that it will be like a rotor in a washing machine. Clean the air from pollution. One of the most beneficial effect of such violent hurricane is that as it rotate so violently it will pull the pollution's that come from the US , China and India by so called centrifugal action. I think one of the important factor that caused the creation of such Hurricane is deforestation. The forests in South and North America keep the moisture balance in the atmosphere.
5
Please everyone donate to the Mexican Red Cross (which you can google or you can find linked from the American Red Cross page). Help is needed. This is one awful storm --- but the rich tourist areas are going to do a much better job of weathering the storm, given the well built hotels and the attention that is lavished on these zones by the Mexican government, than will the impoverished little villages that are a feature of this particular coast line. Please everyone donate!
7
Hmm. I would not be so sure about donating to the Mexican Red Cross. It has a long history of corruption. If you really want to help with money, look for better alternatives.
3
I feel so sorry for the people who are impacted by Hurricane Patricia, but with climate change, this will not be uncommon any more. Why don't politicians understand that climate change is affecting us NOW? We must taken drastic action to try to minimise the damage and change. Why don't we see the urgency? Why can't we stop using fossil fuels and cut down on or, better still stop reliance on animals for our food?
11
There have been 23 Cat 5 hurricanes in the Western Hemisphere since 1928, long before the Global Warming Apocalypse was invented. Why does NYT suddenly blame this one Global Warming?
4
I guess you do not believe in Science?
4
Here's just one example of many showing how climate change affects weather; tropical cyclones derive their strength from warm water and their destructive power is largely due to storm surge. If you add heat to the system and a higher baseline sea level you get more destructive storms. Not exactly rocket science.
I don't think one can say Sandy was caused by global warming, however the oceans were several degrees above normal for both Sandy and Typhoon Haiyaan and the base sea level was higher than before the industrial revolution, so global warming exacerbated the storms.
Another interesting thing about Sandy, changes in the jet stream, which were forecast years ago by climate scientists as an effect of arctic ice decline, allowed Sandy to follow a highly unusual and unusually destructive path. This path was directly into land with the dangerous semi-circle of the storm piling water ashore.
I don't think one can say Sandy was caused by global warming, however the oceans were several degrees above normal for both Sandy and Typhoon Haiyaan and the base sea level was higher than before the industrial revolution, so global warming exacerbated the storms.
Another interesting thing about Sandy, changes in the jet stream, which were forecast years ago by climate scientists as an effect of arctic ice decline, allowed Sandy to follow a highly unusual and unusually destructive path. This path was directly into land with the dangerous semi-circle of the storm piling water ashore.
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita each became Cat. 5 storms when they passed over a previously unknown "hot tongue" of water in the Gulf of Mexico. The storms picked up massive amounts of energy from the water and became monsters.
This time, meteorologists knew that El Nino produced a similar stretch of unusually hot currents off the west coast of Mexico.
The Question: Why didn't any of them predict, however cautiously, that Patricia could likewise be transformed by passing over this source of thermal energy? Was the past so easily forgotten?
This time, meteorologists knew that El Nino produced a similar stretch of unusually hot currents off the west coast of Mexico.
The Question: Why didn't any of them predict, however cautiously, that Patricia could likewise be transformed by passing over this source of thermal energy? Was the past so easily forgotten?
1
It is doubtless that the weather extremes we are seeing with increasing frequency are due to climate change, but it is best to not dwell on that point. It will only invite the ridicule of the know-nothings at the first snowfall.
To try to teach them about the effects of increased atmospheric energy on weather patterns is like trying to teach the calculus to 5 year olds.
We can only hope that the people of Europe and Asia, now far better educated than Americans, will wake up before time has run out.
To try to teach them about the effects of increased atmospheric energy on weather patterns is like trying to teach the calculus to 5 year olds.
We can only hope that the people of Europe and Asia, now far better educated than Americans, will wake up before time has run out.
19
Except that you are wrong and the incidence of powerful (and naturally occurring over history) storms has not increased.
Reminded of Super Storm Sandy and the flooding at full moon high tide, also in Oct. Tonight's moon isn't completely full, but close.
1
I hope our government is urgently preparing to help with recovery. The Mexican government is going to be overwhelmed.
3
Actually it appears the US government could learn a thing or two from the Mexican government. They did a fantastic job with very little notice evacuating people and preparing for the storm. Certainly New Orleans and LA could learn a thing or two.
So it is the third strongest hurricane to ever strike land behind Hurricane Camile in 1969, and the hurricane that struck Galveston in 1900.
1
May God bless and keep our friends in Puerto Vallarta. My family has been spending time there, every year. for nearly two decades. Our thoughts and prayers our with our friends there tonight.
1
I was an Air Force weather officer 1958-80. A few years ago, I would have claimed that there are never hurricanes in the south Atlantic. The reason being that the heat equator never goes below the geographic equator in the Atlantic. The heat equator known as Intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) tends to follow the sun, but in the Atlantic, it is anchored by the Sahara Desert in North Africa extending to the large land mass of northern South America. The convergence causes air to rise which results clouds and thunderstorms if there is a source of moisture. To get circular motion of tropical storms, the heat equator must be displaced from the geographic equator to enable coriolis effects which is proportional to the sine of the latitude. But a few years ago, I saw a weather satellite photo of a tropical storm in the south Atlantic, rotating clockwise, of course.
This little science lesson is a tiny repayment to Uncle Sam who sent me NYU and MIT to study meteorology.
This little science lesson is a tiny repayment to Uncle Sam who sent me NYU and MIT to study meteorology.
23
It is striking how many express the fact that their hopes and prayers are with the locals. When Americans visit Puerto Vallarta, they stay on a strip that services tourists. Tourists don't go where the locals are for fear of theft and violence, drug violence in particular.
4
I recommend Mérida, in the Yucatán, for visiting México. You can fly inexpensively to the dreadful Cancún and take a 4 hour ADO 1st class bus to Mérida, a cosmopolitan city surrounding and incorporating its wonderful colonial city center. It is safe and teeming with European and Mexican tourists (direct flights to Milan). Fabulous Mayan ruins abd many other excellent spots such as Tulum (Mayan ruins on the beach town of 20,000).
If you're more adventurous, take trhe 17 hour ADO bus to San Christóbol de las Casas--stop at the ruins of Peten or continue on to Chiapas.
The readers may find it insensitive to mention tourism at such a time but the Mexican tourist industry will need all the help we can bring.
El Salvador and the more touristed Guatemala are my personal Central American favorites but Mérida is an excellent Mexican vacation with security.
If you're more adventurous, take trhe 17 hour ADO bus to San Christóbol de las Casas--stop at the ruins of Peten or continue on to Chiapas.
The readers may find it insensitive to mention tourism at such a time but the Mexican tourist industry will need all the help we can bring.
El Salvador and the more touristed Guatemala are my personal Central American favorites but Mérida is an excellent Mexican vacation with security.
8
Yes, all beautiful!!! Mexico is a wonderful country with kind and generous people.
Another "thousand year" weather event. Interesting that we've had several of these once in a millennia weather events in just the past month or two alone.
There's no need for any of us to be alarmists, because the climate is sounding the alarm for us. It's gonna be a long ride, folks. Batton down the global hatchets!
All the best to folks down in Mexico, I lived through hurricane Andrew down in Florida and know how devastating these super storms can be... It's not gonna be pretty once this storm passes.
There's no need for any of us to be alarmists, because the climate is sounding the alarm for us. It's gonna be a long ride, folks. Batton down the global hatchets!
All the best to folks down in Mexico, I lived through hurricane Andrew down in Florida and know how devastating these super storms can be... It's not gonna be pretty once this storm passes.
23
My heart and thoughts are with the people and communities being hurt. Here's hoping that we can help our neighbors out. Getting hit hard by Tropical Storm Irene was a wake up call here in Vermont, so much destruction, and yet Irene was a drop in the bucket compared to mighty Patricia.
10
Unfortunately it's going to be the poorest of people who get hurt the most. I hope they can get them all out. Very sad.
16
How far back to NYT weather records go? Must be to the big bang!
4
Make your donations to Red Cross right now. I did, and will again.
4
Almost 20 years ago we, my family, stayed in Manzanillo, a resort town on the west coast, south of Puerto Vallarta. We stayed in a charming little place, all pink as I recall right on the beach, in the shadow of Las Hadas and a military base. The hotel was run by an ex-pat couple from America who bought it after a devastating hurricane. I remember looking at pictures of the destruction; I am thinking about them this evening.
10
I would like to see Mexico sue Exxon for hiding what it clearly knew.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/10/opinion/exxons-climate-concealment.htm...®ion=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Opinion&pgtype=article
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/10/opinion/exxons-climate-concealment.htm...®ion=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Opinion&pgtype=article
10
Before he died, Sir James Goldsmith built a structure that was supposed to outlast Armageddon/WW3 etc, that's exactly at the point of landfall (at his Cuixmala estate, just south of posh Careyes; it's been written about in the nytimes). We will be able to see how well that holds up in a disaster after all. I wonder if the family is actually using that structure right now (they live in different building on the property).
7
Hurricane Patricia shows that the U.S. government must grant temporary protected status to citizens of Mexico who find themselves stranded in the United States due to unfathomable disasters affecting their homeland.
6
That photo from Scott Kelly is awesome and terrifying at the same time. The storm is massive, as he says. The eye is very tight. A fearsome sight.
8
All accounts I've read led with the fact that the winds of this storm have set an all-time record. That, of course, is newsworthy, particularly because it is likely related to global warming. However, this does not communicate to the public what they most need to know. The potential devastation of a hurricane depends on wind sped after it hits land not before. Wind speeds of hurricanes always dissipate over land. No account I read discussed the likely dissipation and likely wind speeds upon landfall. We only got that information after the fact. It appears that Patricia will soon be downgraded to Category 4, which was predictable. This is not to say that there will not be devastation. But in informing readers, there has been too much attention to setting records and too little attention to the likely force of the storm when it hits land and likely begins to cause fatalities.
8
There's a big difference between 165 miles per hour and 200 miles per hour. Buildings can survive that.
2
On Thursday on a trip to my local COSTCO and much to my surprise the store was not in fact packed with people buying any supplies for the impending Hurricane .
Was on the streets at 2AM this morning and no one in the 24-hour stores....except for a taxi driver and two men with water jugs.... 8AM this morning a light drizzle and not much out of the ordinary happening in this neighborhood. It has not rained very hard the entire day and there has been absolutely no wind. How can your reporters in Mexico City, New York City and Miami come up with stories regarding Puerto Vallarta that are blatantly false in every regard. The facts please or leave the story for others who are on the ground to report.
Was on the streets at 2AM this morning and no one in the 24-hour stores....except for a taxi driver and two men with water jugs.... 8AM this morning a light drizzle and not much out of the ordinary happening in this neighborhood. It has not rained very hard the entire day and there has been absolutely no wind. How can your reporters in Mexico City, New York City and Miami come up with stories regarding Puerto Vallarta that are blatantly false in every regard. The facts please or leave the story for others who are on the ground to report.
2
William, when a hurricane heads toward land, no one knows exactly where it will hit. A forecast is make to predict where it is likely to go, and what the danger will be if you happen to be in its path.
Why moan about being lucky that you, so far, are not in its direct path? Just because other people are currently drowning in waves and smothering in landslides to the south and east of you is no reason to berate the forecasters and the media because you happen to be in a spot that dodged the bullet.
To save lives, it's important for everyone to be prepared within the radius of an area that may get hit. Some will be lucky and won't experience the worst of the storm. Others will.
Every time that there are hurricane warnings, there are people who complain because they had to prepare for something that didn't happen. I really don't understand that. Don't complain. Give thanks for your good fortune--and go help those who weren't so fortunate.
Why moan about being lucky that you, so far, are not in its direct path? Just because other people are currently drowning in waves and smothering in landslides to the south and east of you is no reason to berate the forecasters and the media because you happen to be in a spot that dodged the bullet.
To save lives, it's important for everyone to be prepared within the radius of an area that may get hit. Some will be lucky and won't experience the worst of the storm. Others will.
Every time that there are hurricane warnings, there are people who complain because they had to prepare for something that didn't happen. I really don't understand that. Don't complain. Give thanks for your good fortune--and go help those who weren't so fortunate.
7
When Mexicans crossed our border to feed Americans in need after Katrina
See https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/when-mexicans-crossed-our-border...
"By the time their mission in San Antonio ended Sept. 25, the Mexicans had served 170,000 meals, helped distribute more than 184,000 tons of supplies and conducted more than 500 medical consultations.
Mexican sailors also assisted with clearing downed branches and other storm debris in Biloxi, Miss., where they posed for photos with President George W. Bush, who thanked them for their help."
See https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/when-mexicans-crossed-our-border...
"By the time their mission in San Antonio ended Sept. 25, the Mexicans had served 170,000 meals, helped distribute more than 184,000 tons of supplies and conducted more than 500 medical consultations.
Mexican sailors also assisted with clearing downed branches and other storm debris in Biloxi, Miss., where they posed for photos with President George W. Bush, who thanked them for their help."
16
Cuixmala, where hurricane Patricia has apparently made a direct hit, is a particularly enchanting spot. It is home to the Chamela-Cuixmala Biosphere Reserve. Here, you can find a high number of endemic species (from jaquars and pumas to Chachalacas and Macaws) in a lush, jungle setting.
One man-made marvel that draws visitors is Casa Cuixmala, the former private residence of Sir James Goldsmith. His exotic mansion has been converted into a resort hotel.
Local families often work in the lavish villas that dot the coastline. A hurricane like Patricia threatens to upend the lives and livelihoods of many. It can take years for people to rebuilt from such a devastating natural disaster.
Keep the people of Jalisco in mind. Donate to the Red Cross now, and then come visit as soon as you can.
One man-made marvel that draws visitors is Casa Cuixmala, the former private residence of Sir James Goldsmith. His exotic mansion has been converted into a resort hotel.
Local families often work in the lavish villas that dot the coastline. A hurricane like Patricia threatens to upend the lives and livelihoods of many. It can take years for people to rebuilt from such a devastating natural disaster.
Keep the people of Jalisco in mind. Donate to the Red Cross now, and then come visit as soon as you can.
6
At the risk of veering a bit off topic (but still within the discussion range of many comments), let me ask people who are concerned about human-induced climate change: do you think climate was "constant" before widespread industrialization?
Most of you rightly champion the significance of science as a foundation for understanding the natural world. In which case, could we consider a more complete scientific picture? Until 18,000 years ago, the northern US, including all of New England and most of NY, lay under a continental glacier more than a mile thick. Since then, climate (in a reference frame of thousands of years, not a mere few hundred) has certainly changed, and on average warmed significantly. Over the past 2 million years, multiple cycles of warming and cooling caused extensive glacial growth and retreat.
Concern about human impact on the environment, including climate, deserves serious discussion. But to do so in a scientific context means understanding the entire picture, and avoiding any human conceits about how significant we are. By this I mean that human lifetimes, and even all of recorded history, are hardly long enough to capture the constant changes in the earth system.
Most of you rightly champion the significance of science as a foundation for understanding the natural world. In which case, could we consider a more complete scientific picture? Until 18,000 years ago, the northern US, including all of New England and most of NY, lay under a continental glacier more than a mile thick. Since then, climate (in a reference frame of thousands of years, not a mere few hundred) has certainly changed, and on average warmed significantly. Over the past 2 million years, multiple cycles of warming and cooling caused extensive glacial growth and retreat.
Concern about human impact on the environment, including climate, deserves serious discussion. But to do so in a scientific context means understanding the entire picture, and avoiding any human conceits about how significant we are. By this I mean that human lifetimes, and even all of recorded history, are hardly long enough to capture the constant changes in the earth system.
6
Bob Krantz, please stop. You do not have a gotcha point that will shut down legitimate voices telling us climate change is real.
Scientists know all you know -- and then some. This conversation is over. Exxon lied. We await decisions to be made in Paris.
Scientists know all you know -- and then some. This conversation is over. Exxon lied. We await decisions to be made in Paris.
12
The climate has absolutely changed over long periods of time. Never has there been the amount of carbon dioxide, methane and water vapor - the green house gases in the atmosphere, as there is now, due to burning fossil fuels. How can anyone dispute this?
We can analyze data over long periods of time, not just "human lifetimes" avoiding "human conceits". It has been done.
Science rules!!!
We can analyze data over long periods of time, not just "human lifetimes" avoiding "human conceits". It has been done.
Science rules!!!
2
Mr. Krantz: please Google one vital piece of information. What was the change in average temperature in North America that led to the glaciers there disappearing? You might be surprised to note that it was only a small temperature change. The rapid pace at which the temperature is changing now is not 'natural', 'normal'. It is not a natural variation in the climate cycle. You might also be surprised to learn that with climate change, some places might become cooler than average. That does not mean that human-induced climate change is not happening.
8
My wife and I were scheduled to fly to PV tomorrow - our thoughts and prayers are with the people there, that they all remain safe. Bob & Karin
5
"along the road between the state capital, Colima, and the port city of Manzanillo." would be clearer had it been stated as "between the capital of the State of Colima ansd the port city of Manzanillo." Unfortunately the name of the state and its capital are both Colima.
1
I'm here in Vallarta. The preparations were done in an amazingly short amount of time. Patricia developed into a major hurricane in a matter of hours yesterday and by noon today virtually all of the stores were closed. The roads have been desolate since about 1pm.
It is still eerily quiet here as the winds are still below 5mph. There rain has been light but steady. The Holiday Inn Express advised us that the electricity and Internet would be cut at 4pm but it is still operational.
It is still eerily quiet here as the winds are still below 5mph. There rain has been light but steady. The Holiday Inn Express advised us that the electricity and Internet would be cut at 4pm but it is still operational.
6
We had better get used to it. This is our future unless we take drastic action - which we will not because of vested interests in the status quo. Why don't these people think of their children and grandchildren? I have a granddaughter of 4 and I tremble for her future.
13
Interestingly the number of major hurricanes hitting the U.S. has actually decreased rather than increased over the last number of years, contrary to what global warming alarmists predicted.
We can hope for the best that people in the path have gotten out of harms way and are prepared for what lies ahead.
Then we in the global community should do what we can to support those impacted.
And then we should take a look at our own situations and see if we are prepared for the 'big one' in whatever form it may take. This is a good reminder to always keep at least 1/2 a tank of gas in your vehicle, jugs of fresh water in storage and some food that can be eaten without heating up. Always with a crank-powered radio available too.
Then we in the global community should do what we can to support those impacted.
And then we should take a look at our own situations and see if we are prepared for the 'big one' in whatever form it may take. This is a good reminder to always keep at least 1/2 a tank of gas in your vehicle, jugs of fresh water in storage and some food that can be eaten without heating up. Always with a crank-powered radio available too.
4
Shouldn't Hurricane Carla be included in the Cat 5 storms to hit the US? (The article says there have been only 3-- a l935 hurricane, Camille, & Andrew.) In l961, Carla plowed into the Texas coast, at Port Lavaca, with 175 mph winds, eventually causing $300,000,000 damage in Texas, $345million and 43 deaths overall. Hurricane Carla also provided the opportunity for a young Houston reporter to go to the seawall in Galveston and stand in the pouring rain and pounding wind to broadcast his story. It led to a new standard in hurricane coverage and launched to national career of Dan Rather.
1
For real, you people that use this to further "your side" and "agenda" sicken me. You are no absolutely no better than your foe. All concerns should be for the fine people in the path of this impending disaster and doing your part to help.
7
This will undoubtedly end up costing the U.S. taxpayer more than Katrina did.
Besides being a sillything to say, is there some data for that statement? Or is it just Hannity. Again.
3
According to a recent paper by James Hansen as the oceans continue to gain heat the storms will get more powerful.
"There is evidence of ice melt, sea level rise to +5-9 meters, and extreme storms in the prior interglacial period that was less than 1°C warmer than today."
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2015/20150704_IceMelt.pdf
We're talking about our "safe" 2C target.
"There is evidence of ice melt, sea level rise to +5-9 meters, and extreme storms in the prior interglacial period that was less than 1°C warmer than today."
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2015/20150704_IceMelt.pdf
We're talking about our "safe" 2C target.
5
We are all like the proverbial frogs slowly being cooked and thinking it's a minor thing. Wake up people: pay attention to your impact on the environment. This is the only one we got.
11
Slept in waaaay too late. Nothing to be done now. Damage is beyond repair.
How is this storm, which certainly has been preceded many times before records were kept with equal or greater strength, a result of climate change; as many have commented. Tying Patricia to global warming appears a desperate attempt without facts to support the argument; and adds a hysterical feeling to the alarm.
Even the heavy rains we recently suffered in South Carolina has been blamed on climate change (i.e. global warming). Where is the proof?
Even the heavy rains we recently suffered in South Carolina has been blamed on climate change (i.e. global warming). Where is the proof?
2
There is no mention whatsoever in the story of climate change. No specific weather event can be tied to climate change.
THe folks at google, and better yet google scholar, have invested an enormous amount of effort to make an actual search of legitmate (ie actual scientific) literature simple for everyone, on this or any other topic
Where is the proof? Look out your window. Things are different now. You recently suffered heavy rains in South Carolina. Where is the proof these heavy rains won't return, again and again, in your lifetime?
3
I have spent two vacations at a friend's beach house in Punta Perula apparently in its path. This little fishing village is on Bahia Chamela about 70 miles south of Puerto Vallarta. A gorgeous area away from the throngs of PV. You can go down and see what the catch of the day is when the Pescadores come back from their daily trips into the bay. Then you pick the fish you want and restaurants on the beach will prepare it for you at your chosen time. So civilized. My hopes and prayers go out to those to be affected by this storm.
2
I hope the US has offered assistance to Mexico to help out w/ any disaster relief.
8
"The strongest hurricane to ever assault the Western Hemisphere headed toward Mexico’s southwest Pacific coast on Friday [...]
Unlike Atlantic hurricanes, the strength of which has been recorded since the 19th century, wind speeds for eastern Pacific hurricanes have only been logged since around the 1970s. To say it's the strongest hurricane "ever" to hit the Western Hemisphere is misleading. It may or may not be true, but we have no way of knowing, so the responsible thing to do would have been to add a few words to the lede to put it in context.
Unlike Atlantic hurricanes, the strength of which has been recorded since the 19th century, wind speeds for eastern Pacific hurricanes have only been logged since around the 1970s. To say it's the strongest hurricane "ever" to hit the Western Hemisphere is misleading. It may or may not be true, but we have no way of knowing, so the responsible thing to do would have been to add a few words to the lede to put it in context.
5
The real loss of life will be throughout the Mexican mountains because of rain caused mudslides.
3
Wow, I had not thought about that. I recall from a vacation to That area the landing was scary because once we got past a huge mountain range the landing strip was very short. I thought that if people could make it those mountains they'd have a chance of surviving this storm. Now, maybe not. I'm praying for the people of Mexico.
1
It would informative to see in one document or article, a review of just how many environment-related records have been tied, broken or approached in the last few decades including weather, flora and fauna extinctions or near-extinctions, ocean level rise, polar ice cap shrinkage as well as trend lines for whatever longterm biochemical measurements there are that relate to the health of our planet.
3
Call the American Meteorological Society at 617-226-3998 in Boston. They publish an annual "State of the Climate". It runs about 300 pages. The policy statement of the AMS is that the climate is warming and is man-made. It anthropological because that is the only reason that fits the facts.
It reminds me of the Titanic when the First class passengers were allowed to evacuate before the rest of the ship. The tourists were quickly allowed access out of Puerto Vallarta or whisked into the best shelters with comfort, while the Mexican residents, workers who work at the tourist resorts, etc. are expected to just go home & tape up their windows of their concrete homes. The gasoline & buses were allocated so the rich tourists were given first priority, while the residents are left with whatever is left over or go without as shortages due to the emergency nature of the hurricane. This is representative of the nature of income inequality even when it boils down to a natural disaster.
15
This is heartbreaking and frightening. The people at the big resorts will be safe, but the other residents, most of whom I except have no place to run, are directly in the path of this terrible storm.
Several people have commented that these monster storms will occur more and more frequently as global warming proceeds -- indeed, as global warming accelerates. I have to say that, as someone who knows climate-deniers first-hand, I have no hope that the views of such seemingly wacky people will be altered by disasters; they will discount these, just as they have discounted overwhelming scientific evidence and opinion.
I have family members who precisely fit the denier demographic: white, less-educated, working and middle-class. After many years of attempting to reason with them, on this and other subjects, I am convinced that people who jump on these ideological bandwagons simply do not interface with the world in the way that the rest of us -- e.g., most NYT commenters -- do. They are fundamentally emotional people who do not arrive at opinions or conclusions based on facts (nor do they know what a fact actually is, it seems). This is not stupidity - although it may seem that way to those of us who are analytical and critical. These people have jobs, earn incomes & survive okay. Their minds, however, work differently from ours, and denying climate change is important to their emotional security - so they will continue to do it, even as their homes go under water.
Several people have commented that these monster storms will occur more and more frequently as global warming proceeds -- indeed, as global warming accelerates. I have to say that, as someone who knows climate-deniers first-hand, I have no hope that the views of such seemingly wacky people will be altered by disasters; they will discount these, just as they have discounted overwhelming scientific evidence and opinion.
I have family members who precisely fit the denier demographic: white, less-educated, working and middle-class. After many years of attempting to reason with them, on this and other subjects, I am convinced that people who jump on these ideological bandwagons simply do not interface with the world in the way that the rest of us -- e.g., most NYT commenters -- do. They are fundamentally emotional people who do not arrive at opinions or conclusions based on facts (nor do they know what a fact actually is, it seems). This is not stupidity - although it may seem that way to those of us who are analytical and critical. These people have jobs, earn incomes & survive okay. Their minds, however, work differently from ours, and denying climate change is important to their emotional security - so they will continue to do it, even as their homes go under water.
14
You are describing evangelical fundamentalists.
Now would be a good time to think of making a contribution to a reputable charity of your choice. Time to help our neighbor.
8
I live in an area hit by Hurricane Andrew, we were in the devastation zone, it was worse 17 miles south, Homestead ground zero. You’d think people would be storm / climate savvy yet my inland Village of Pinecrest allowed 5 acres of wetlands to filled and elevated without drainage and now the altered land floods a neighborhood. With sea rise, connecting to the canals that lead into Biscayne Bay for storm water drainage is illegal because the canals are full and overtop.
My home is right behind that sumpland and we did NOT flood with Hurricane Andrew because the sumpland was in tact, did what wetlands do, PROTECT. Before and After pictures posted on Pinecrest Floods (zip 33156) show what happens when greed takes over.
http://pinecrestfloods.blogspot.com/
Now the protection is gone, and the city refuses to ensure our safety, let alone reclaim the land even as protecting lowlands is a priority for the pumps that will come ahead, assuming Miami makes it.
We did not flood during Hurricane Andrew, yet other horrors of the aftermath remain, and I feel so bad for all these poor souls. That aftermath ….
My home is right behind that sumpland and we did NOT flood with Hurricane Andrew because the sumpland was in tact, did what wetlands do, PROTECT. Before and After pictures posted on Pinecrest Floods (zip 33156) show what happens when greed takes over.
http://pinecrestfloods.blogspot.com/
Now the protection is gone, and the city refuses to ensure our safety, let alone reclaim the land even as protecting lowlands is a priority for the pumps that will come ahead, assuming Miami makes it.
We did not flood during Hurricane Andrew, yet other horrors of the aftermath remain, and I feel so bad for all these poor souls. That aftermath ….
6
It isn't like global warming reached a certain point and oh, boy, now it's going to back off. No. It's going to get worse and worse and worse and worse. Everybody knows the story now about Exxon having had internal science in the 1970's confirming the catastrophic consequences of burning fossil fuels, keeping it secret, and funding bogus "think" tanks to sow controversy and confusion where there was none. Well, they have ruined this planet for human habitation. Wait for the famine, folks. Then the USA and the mightiest military in history will be finished. What a sorry, disgusting spectacle.
27
Within the last few days, NYT reported that the US cut foreign aid to Mexico by $5M as a message on our dissatisfaction with its efforts in fighting the drug war. Let's hope that this will not preclude our providing emergency aid that will be needed as early as Sunday. If you have been through the many mountain villages east of the coastline, you know that the destruction will be enormous, survivors will be without food, water, medicine, and sanitation. When the Red Cross telephones you, pull out your credit card. The immediate need may be almost limitless.
19
In instances like this the help from the U.S. will be better if given in the form of any other entities besides the government ! Like the Red Cross etc .Unless we want it to end up in some big politician bank account ! And it should be done a.s.a.p. . I know by experience that the rural areas of Mexico are practically of no importance to Mexico's politicians except when they need to count the folks as votes for their respective party ! Even if halve the population of the little towns are not willing to even vote ! At least 0.85 cents of every dollar donated are to be end up in some one else and not with the people in need or where the help was intended for ! I feel for all those folks ! Most of them will lose their everything if not their lives ! :(
They should have gotten more people out. They could have diverted buses from other routes and gotten. them. out.
11
The suddenness of its increase from a typical storm to a Category 5 hurricane was unprecedented. As many people were moved as they possibly could - according to the article, roads were jammed with those fleeing until the point was reached where it was better to build up supplies and hunker down in time for the hurricane to strike land.
As the built-up effects of unchecked global warming play out, expect more of these, and even a higher category system to accommodate.
As the built-up effects of unchecked global warming play out, expect more of these, and even a higher category system to accommodate.
This is all Hillary Clinton's fault.
The U.S. House should hold hearings to investigate.
The U.S. House should hold hearings to investigate.
72
It's quite sad that we are talking about families dying and some want to make political jokes of this tragedy
6
If people want to blame anthropogenic climate change for a single storm at random, then they must also accept that it has caused the Atlantic's amazingly quiet hurricane season.
It is however probably better to understand statistics.
It is however probably better to understand statistics.
4
Or even better, meteorology.
More heat in the atmosphere causes larger variations from the mean, i.e. more, larger storms over a prolonged period of time.
Anthropogenic or not, that's the way the world works.
More heat in the atmosphere causes larger variations from the mean, i.e. more, larger storms over a prolonged period of time.
Anthropogenic or not, that's the way the world works.
2
Perhaps you failed to notice that we are up to P in the Pacific, which is experiencing an unusually heavy hurricane season, in addition to the strongest recorded hurricane in the Western hemisphere. And that this is an El Nino year, so we expected a light hurricane year in the Atlantic.
Quite possibly it is better to understand more than just statistics.
Quite possibly it is better to understand more than just statistics.
1
Climate Change denialists are running scared.
2
"...The strongest hurricane to ever assault the Western Hemisphere..."
That is a ridiculous and unsupported statement. We've only been measuring these storms exhaustively during the last half century. We don't know what the strongest storm has ever been prior to that, because we were not here to measure it and there have been warm periods prior to this one over the last millennium that could have provided similar, if not more optimal, conditions.
Patricia may well be the strongest storm ever to hit the western hemisphere, but that requires untestable assumptions. Let's not let a sense of myopia about the present cloud our judgement.
That is a ridiculous and unsupported statement. We've only been measuring these storms exhaustively during the last half century. We don't know what the strongest storm has ever been prior to that, because we were not here to measure it and there have been warm periods prior to this one over the last millennium that could have provided similar, if not more optimal, conditions.
Patricia may well be the strongest storm ever to hit the western hemisphere, but that requires untestable assumptions. Let's not let a sense of myopia about the present cloud our judgement.
4
The dinosaur killing asteroid that hit Mother Earth was the largest storm that we have had.
Complete agreement with your opening quote. If the headline had read "strongest hurricane in recorded modern history" or something more realistic and defendable, then it wouldn't have quite the sensationalism flavor the media strives for. Why can't the news simply be reported instead of it being exaggerated or manufactured?
1
Nyt is only giving it's readers what they want. News is, after all, entertainment to most. Sensationalism sells. Truth doesn't.
What do you mean Patricia "menaces: Mexican Pacific Coast? SHE is on top of them right now.
We traversed Mexico when Dean threatened from the Carib, from the border of Mexico with Guatemala, listening all the way for advisories and still wound up in the middle of it with trees falling on the road in front and behind us on the Emerald Coast, Caribbean side above Veracruz near Naranjos (the Oranges).
World media obsessed with such trivia as Hillary before the twisted Committee; did not find it of significance to SCREAM the alarm of oncoming death.
Nope, the presently occurring death of thousands of poor, immobile, and trapped people with more than a few children beautiful and innocent who might have saved a lost world are being wiped out RIGHT NOW
The Mexican government goes to sleep hours before these events. Apparently their people are disposable. That is attitude of resignation and impotency. The USA media on top of the meteorological event ought to have gone all out to overcome the historically limp, ineffectual response of the Mexican officials getting ready to collect and count corpses.
It could be way lots worse than Katrina and W's limp efforts.
I spent a wonderful, actually incredible time in Puerto Vallarta with my son Joshua in 1985. I will never forget how it was so beautiful.
We traversed Mexico when Dean threatened from the Carib, from the border of Mexico with Guatemala, listening all the way for advisories and still wound up in the middle of it with trees falling on the road in front and behind us on the Emerald Coast, Caribbean side above Veracruz near Naranjos (the Oranges).
World media obsessed with such trivia as Hillary before the twisted Committee; did not find it of significance to SCREAM the alarm of oncoming death.
Nope, the presently occurring death of thousands of poor, immobile, and trapped people with more than a few children beautiful and innocent who might have saved a lost world are being wiped out RIGHT NOW
The Mexican government goes to sleep hours before these events. Apparently their people are disposable. That is attitude of resignation and impotency. The USA media on top of the meteorological event ought to have gone all out to overcome the historically limp, ineffectual response of the Mexican officials getting ready to collect and count corpses.
It could be way lots worse than Katrina and W's limp efforts.
I spent a wonderful, actually incredible time in Puerto Vallarta with my son Joshua in 1985. I will never forget how it was so beautiful.
7
Good thing the US business community and the politicians paid by it are making sure we do nothing about global climate change. Because limiting fossil fuel burning is bad for business, unlike off the charts hurricanes.
26
There is no such thing as global warming. But if it were true, Obama caused it. (I know, some Republicans actually believe this.)
25
It appears that Puerto Vallarta will be spared the worst of the winds and storm surge. They will be north of the eyefall and the winds will be pushing water away from shore into the bay.
Manzanillo is a different story. They appear to be in the direct path of the northeast eyewall. If that turns out to be the case I suspect that Manzanillo will be just a memory by tomorrow morning. At least a lot of people were able to get out.
But the worst will be in Guadalajara. They will take a direct hit while the storm is still a category three or four storm. At some 50 or 60 miles inland I suspect that not many have evacuated or even made significant preparations.
Manzanillo is a different story. They appear to be in the direct path of the northeast eyewall. If that turns out to be the case I suspect that Manzanillo will be just a memory by tomorrow morning. At least a lot of people were able to get out.
But the worst will be in Guadalajara. They will take a direct hit while the storm is still a category three or four storm. At some 50 or 60 miles inland I suspect that not many have evacuated or even made significant preparations.
5
The comment about areas inland 60 miles or so is true. I have family in Autlan de Navarro, a town of about 45,000, and as of 4pm the stores were still open and the gas stations had long lines. At about 5:15 the winds arrived to Autlan and the rain became much stronger.
This is in stark contrast to Puerto Vallarta were the streets were empty by 1pm.
This is in stark contrast to Puerto Vallarta were the streets were empty by 1pm.
I think that it’s nice that people are able to know in advance that they need to get into a safe zone. It’s going to be something very big. It amazes me that it’s supposed to be bigger than Katrina. It’s honestly going to be something very devastating. They’re probably going to need a lot of help from everywhere. I feel sorry for the people who are about to experience this. All my prayers go out to the families. I just hope that there aren’t many deaths from this or struggles. I can only imagine how they’re currently feeling knowing that something big is about to hit. It’s just very sad and I really hope it isn’t going to happen they way the meteorologists are predicting. There’s not much more I can say but I hope all the people have water and plenty of food because only mother nature knows what will happen and how big it will really big.
I can only hope that the people who are there live to drink their water and eat the food. Unless you lived thru a hurricane you don't realize how deadly they can be. I have been thru six and I never intend to live thru another. First sign of a hurricane and I am leaving Florida fast.
Pope Francis was right. Climate change supersedes the prayers of even the most faithful. Mother Nature has had enough abuse & she's fighting back with all of her might. Well as long as man can personify a Godlike all knowing being which oddly resembles ape like man, why can't Nature be personified to be a pissed off middle ages woman who's going through some really tough times.
My thoughts & heartfelt sympathy to all effected by this disaster. Please wake up global community like the Pope & demand more action from our politicians including ending the insane practice of fossil fuel consumption now before it's too late.
My thoughts & heartfelt sympathy to all effected by this disaster. Please wake up global community like the Pope & demand more action from our politicians including ending the insane practice of fossil fuel consumption now before it's too late.
19
Yes, true, a great preacher remended us of an ancient saying, "Hell hath no fury as a woman scorned."
1
There is a biological research station at Chamela, right in the predicted eye. My wife did research there last summer. I feel so sorry for them right now.
7
My thoughts are with the people in the path of this monster storm. Hoping for it to at least weaken before making landfall.
5
God bless and all pray for those thousands who will perish
8
Perfect article!!! Except....
Storms like these have only been recorded since about 1970..some 45 years.
The earth is somewhere around 3 billion years old.
And this is the "largest" ever?
I think you should correct that to is the largest in "50 years".
Storms like these have only been recorded since about 1970..some 45 years.
The earth is somewhere around 3 billion years old.
And this is the "largest" ever?
I think you should correct that to is the largest in "50 years".
9
Where do you get that storms like this have only been recorded since about 1970?
8
Over and over it's being called the largest 'recorded' storm in the western hemisphere.
5
The asteroid that hit Planet Earth was the largest storm that we ever had. But that was before history was recorded. No historians either.
The key word is "recorded."
Can I get paid for my work as teacher here?
The key word is "recorded."
Can I get paid for my work as teacher here?
7
From what I have picked up the mountains will stop the winds (eventually) but not the on coming rains. Texas has not seen the worst.
1
The strongest hurricane ever reported in the western hemisphere? In the hottest year ever recorded on Earth? In the hottest decade ever recorded? Nah, don't you worry your pretty little heads, because Senator Inhofe from Okay! Oklahoma, tells us that "God is in Control! "He's up there!" He's twiddling the knobs and turning the weather dials, Doing His Will! So we don't have to worry! Whew. Had me worried for a second. I thought we might have to actually DO something about global warming. Like, maybe, get serious about CO2 reductions.
160
Hottest year! Hottest decade! Strongest storm ever!
Stop being so melodramatic there Danny boy.
Never understood why people think that these super storms must mean that God forgot to dial in the knobs correctly. SMH.
Ocean currents, lunar pull, wind, atmospheric pressure, moisture content and other factors play a crucial role in weather occurrences. It's just nature people.
I guess if it wasn't global warming, it would be some other sensationalized drama to participate in. Yes, temps have risen slightly. And you know that temperature fluctuations have never happened before on earth in the last 3 BILLION YEARS. Just stop with the juvenile fear antics already.
That said, this (natural) one isn't to be taken lightly. I hope loss of possession and life is minimal. Those in its path, be safe.
Stop being so melodramatic there Danny boy.
Never understood why people think that these super storms must mean that God forgot to dial in the knobs correctly. SMH.
Ocean currents, lunar pull, wind, atmospheric pressure, moisture content and other factors play a crucial role in weather occurrences. It's just nature people.
I guess if it wasn't global warming, it would be some other sensationalized drama to participate in. Yes, temps have risen slightly. And you know that temperature fluctuations have never happened before on earth in the last 3 BILLION YEARS. Just stop with the juvenile fear antics already.
That said, this (natural) one isn't to be taken lightly. I hope loss of possession and life is minimal. Those in its path, be safe.
Our best wishes for the safety of all those in Patricia's path.
So little warning on the huge storm, or so it seems from here.
I don't see any reference in the story, but I'm guessing this is an off-shoot of the El Nino effect brewing in a warming Pacific?
So little warning on the huge storm, or so it seems from here.
I don't see any reference in the story, but I'm guessing this is an off-shoot of the El Nino effect brewing in a warming Pacific?
11
Yes, due to El Niño, this thing ramped up from a few catered storms to one massive storm in 24 hours, the fastest ant storm has moved to a monster hurricane since this type of measurement has been available.
11
Here we go again, the storm of the century, that will end civilization, (or at least areas in its path!) as we know it! All I want to know is if Al Roker will be reporting directly from the scene and those responsible folks at The Weather Channel, who understate everything will be on it?! Nonetheless we hope its destructive capabilities prove false!!!
6
Lets hope the mountain range that surrounds Bahia Banderas where Puerto Vallarta is located can work it's magic one more time and protect the almost 300.000 souls that live in the region. Que las montañas los acompañen...
12
I traveled to Miami with my wife and daughter for a wedding the Wednesday before Hurricane Andrew. Murphy's law attacked twice. First the wedding was called off due to a family feud. But we stayed anyway because our flight was not until Monday night. Needless to say Hurricane Andrew literally attacked my brother in law's house all of Saturday night and early Sunday am-a direct hit. We were all cramped into a hallway closet for the whole night while the hurricane entered the house through a shattered bathroom window and almost ripped off the roof above us. We prayed in fear of dying all night long. Thanks to God we were able to see the light at dawn. Unfortunately the house on the corner was gone with only the bathroom structure remaining. Thank God that all the occupants of that house survived. The moral to the story is that nature is more powerful than any number of human beings. I pray to God that all those people in the path of Hurricane Patricia find adequate and strong shelter and that they are able to see the light of the rising sun at dawn. Rene Martin Oliveras.
28
My heart and prayers are with the Mexican people. I hope the storm doesn't pass over Mexico into the Gulf of Mexico, become strong again and hit our shores.
6
That's what is believed to happen...hope not either
I was there during the quake in the lat 90s. PV bounced back in a hurry, with repair work starting the same day. However, this hurricane looks to be far more devastating. If the hurricane that hit Cabo two years ago is any indication, the tourist areas will be fixed first, and poor Mexican will suffer for a long time.
65
Hurricane Odile hit Cabo last year on Sept. 14th--not 2 years ago.
2
Thank you for correcting me. Yes it was last year.
It's tough to prioritize, but in areas like Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo, if you don't get the tourist stuff back up and running quickly, the local economy will be devastated - and we're just coming up on high season.
2
I fear that Hurricane Patricia will be anything but a lady once she unleashes her full potential. Just by viewing the Doppler Radar, the total circumference of this storm is beyond belief. Hopefully people will take these warnings to heart and believe the anticipated reports of 200 mph. winds. Is it not better to prepare and take shelter even if the storm ends up not being as severe predicted than assuming it will be nothing and then end up with no where to go?
30
I don't know why any person living in a coastal area would vote for a Republican. The potential for these climate catastrophes is not going to go away by shutting down the government or denying the science behind these weather events.
I'm so sorry that Mexico is going to be the next object lesson in what happens when we don't do enough to prevent climate damage.
I'm so sorry that Mexico is going to be the next object lesson in what happens when we don't do enough to prevent climate damage.
35
Is this monster storm heading for El Chapo? Has the one above spoken with weather?
I love Puerto Vallarta and wish the people there all the best.
Will the cats on Isla Cuale survive?
Will the cats on Isla Cuale survive?
8
Trees are likely to be uprooted well before 200 mph winds. Storm surge could completely cover many islands. Fate of cats washed out to sea? Not hopeful.
2
Funny -- as in sad/weird -- isn't it, how our discussions of catastrophes focus only on human life and well-being, as though we are the only creatures affected by them? What of all of the non-human life in Patricia's path? If we let it matter to us, the magnitude of the potential for suffering becomes unbearable.
The cats, yes. My heart breaks for them.
The cats, yes. My heart breaks for them.
2
It is heart breaking to read about people in the impact zone for this storm taping their windows - don't they understand that outside of a concrete bunker, nothing will be standing there, including their homes and those windows, after the storm passes? And it looks narrow in its width, there is still time to outrun it if you have enough gas and can get through on the roads. Mexico should be focusing not on helping people stay but on getting people out of there, or there will be thousands of deaths.
80
Having lived through a few hurricanes in New Orleans, I understand why one tapes windows. Not so the windows won't blow out (one can only hope for that!), but if they do, they won't come out in shards that kill or maim (or make for a very messy clean-up), they come out in clumps, thanks to the tape. i know it looks crazy to see taped windows before a hurricane - but that's why it's done
Didn't you read that the stations ran out of gas? And many people do not have cars. Also, all the busses are full and gone. The Mexican government had little warning as this storm came up quickly. There is no way to evacuate all the people, this storm has come up so fast. Also, I have lived in New Orleans and people don't tape the windows because they think that will prevent them from breaking, they tape them because that will help prevent shards of glass from flying everywhere: if they stay stuck together, even flying, they are less dangerous. It is not a perfect solution, but it helps. Now just imagine that you live on Long Island in NY and a big hurricane is headed your way. Now try to evacuate. Impossible.
I lived on St. Croix, USVI in September 1989 when Hurricane Hugo blasted the island. We weren't afraid mostly because only the old-timers could remember the last big hurricane. But since we knew a tropical storm had been upgraded to a hurricane, we prepared -- enough water, canned goods, batteries, and candles to last five days. The evening before Hugo hit, winds were calm and the sky peaceful. Over the next twelve hours, Hugo's winds slowly demolished St. Croix. Local measurements plotted winds over 200 mph but official calculations labelled Hugo a Category 4 storm.
When I stepped out into the morning after, I thought the world had ended. Hurricane Hugo had stripped my neighborhood of almost every house. It had burned the hillside black with sea soaked winds and rain. It had silenced the animals. Later I would come to learn that most of the island suffered a similar fate. Our food and bottled water lasted two weeks. For three more months, we could not access food or electricity in our home.
It's easy to debate politics, science and environmental concerns far removed from the path of Hurricane Patricia but if the storm hits as predicted, people in Mexico will need a lot more than talk in the days, weeks and months to come.
Some parts of St. Croix haven't yet recovered from Hurricane Hugo 26 years later.
When I stepped out into the morning after, I thought the world had ended. Hurricane Hugo had stripped my neighborhood of almost every house. It had burned the hillside black with sea soaked winds and rain. It had silenced the animals. Later I would come to learn that most of the island suffered a similar fate. Our food and bottled water lasted two weeks. For three more months, we could not access food or electricity in our home.
It's easy to debate politics, science and environmental concerns far removed from the path of Hurricane Patricia but if the storm hits as predicted, people in Mexico will need a lot more than talk in the days, weeks and months to come.
Some parts of St. Croix haven't yet recovered from Hurricane Hugo 26 years later.
315
Tragic to be sure but Hugo was not a result of global warming...
In response to the occasional comments posted here, and the frequent ones seen elsewhere, charging that the rest of the world doesn't care about climate change and/or is doing nothing about it, so we shouldn't do anything either.
If you care about whether the long-term impact of climate change is simply very bad versus horrendous you do something about it. And if you care about how badly it impacts our kids and grandkids, you do something about it.
In addition, it is dead wrong in saying that much of the world doesn't care about climate change. Most of the world in fact does care and is taking action to various degrees. The United States is the country lagging behind in many respects and is the one with a major political party sticking its head in the sand on this issue.
In fact, denying that there's anything that can be done about climate change is just another form of denialism.
If you care about whether the long-term impact of climate change is simply very bad versus horrendous you do something about it. And if you care about how badly it impacts our kids and grandkids, you do something about it.
In addition, it is dead wrong in saying that much of the world doesn't care about climate change. Most of the world in fact does care and is taking action to various degrees. The United States is the country lagging behind in many respects and is the one with a major political party sticking its head in the sand on this issue.
In fact, denying that there's anything that can be done about climate change is just another form of denialism.
34
"If you care about whether the long-term impact of climate change is simply very bad"
We've been in a relatively low period of hurricanes the last decade. Remember, really bad hurricanes happened a long time before global warming was an issue.
We've been in a relatively low period of hurricanes the last decade. Remember, really bad hurricanes happened a long time before global warming was an issue.
1
Since Patricia is the 22nd storm this year at Cat 4 or higher--also a record--looks like the planet's making up the difference in a big fat hurry.
You may wish to google, find out what the PDO is.
You may wish to google, find out what the PDO is.
1
For those in the path of the storm: Vaya con Dios.
Friends and family, time to pray.
Friends and family, time to pray.
8
I accept that this is climate related. After all, aren't hurricanes part of the climate? If staying warm in the winter, getting around to work and such is causing the problem then the solution is not staying warm in the winter and not getting around, not cutting trees and other human actions. Logic then is that the best way to turn this back is to limit population and/or lower population. It this storm really does do the damage the weather guessers say it is going to do then it should kill a substantial number of people and devastate the development of the areas hit. That is a good starting place for limiting future climate change. Exterminating those that are a problem to this country USA would then be a logical next step. The Middle East and their terrorist mind set... Why not continue the limitation of climate change by "limiting" their effect on the climate... permanently. China has no real interest in changing so why not take them off the board along with the other troublemakers. People are the problem. Do away with people and the problem will eventually go away... Choosing those that are enemies and competitors only makes sense in the process of solving this problem. Until then we should embrace Hurricane Patricia as the beginning of the solution to what is considered a horrible problem by many.
1
"I accept that this is climate related. After all, aren't hurricanes part of the climate?"
So are sunny, warm ways with a light wind and 72 degrees. So what? Do you know how long severe hurricanes have been happening versus how long global warming has been an issue?
So are sunny, warm ways with a light wind and 72 degrees. So what? Do you know how long severe hurricanes have been happening versus how long global warming has been an issue?
1
Well, we're making progress anyway. Phil at least is admitting that global warming is an issue, even if he doesn't think that it has anything to do with the strongest hurricane ever recorded. Baby steps are good.
I recently read Erik Larson’s book, “Isaac’s Storm” who painfully described in great detail the 1900 Galveston Hurricane and its aftermath. Back then, that storm was the worst and deadliest hurricane on record. Hopefully with cutting edge technology, equipment and warning systems, the potential for devastating damage and loss of life will be far less than what was experienced over 115 years ago. May all those in Patricia’s path be safe and spared from harm’s way.
15
"the 1900 Galveston Hurricane"
Thank you for the reminder that really bad hurricanes have been happening a long time before global warming became an issue.
Thank you for the reminder that really bad hurricanes have been happening a long time before global warming became an issue.
2
Good God. A windowless service building? At sea level? If the eye is left of them, they'll get 25-30 feet storm surge. For hours. With the force to break the walls and then crush them, if they don't drown. It's not the wind. It's the water. Please Times try to follow up to report on Mrs Rangel.
63
The wind at 200 mph can tear a building from its foundation.
5
One can only hope that the people affected by Hurricane Patricia take seriously the warnings about its strength and scale. All too often, it seems, we hear storms labeled "the storm of the century" when, in fact, the storm is simply big. Hurricane Patricia, though, is of a scale seen very rarely, and it has the very real potential to be lethal. How many tourists on the 'Mexican Riviera' will ignore the gravity of this situation, having been numbed by the weekly media hype of of the "super-storm of the century"?
62
Could it be that the media reports were not so exaggerated - that indeed these storms _are_ quickly increasing in strength?
2
"Patricia was expected to touchdown around by early evening...."
Touchdown? Hurricanes make landfall, right?
Touchdown? Hurricanes make landfall, right?
17
Everything west of the Hudson is flyover country. You know, all farms and tornadoes.
2
Are you implying Hudson Bay?
1
I've ridden out two Cat 2 storms. A Cat 5 coming straight into a developed area at the coast is going to be horrific.
Blame it on global warming, though? Don't be a ninny.
Blame it on global warming, though? Don't be a ninny.
1
I am not so sure anymore that this easy dismissal of a changing climate as a factor in intense weather make sense. This is shaping up to be the hottest year recorded. Not hottest ever, but since records have been maintained. Ocean temperatures are considerably higher than in recent years, particularly in the eastern Pacific. Hurricanes require warm water to intensify and the warmer the water, the greater the intensity. Attributing every intense weather event to anthropogenic climate change is obviously unwise, but this might be an example where it makes sense. It's not being "a ninny", whatever that is, to see that altering the temperature regime of an entire planet may influence weather.
21
"I am not so sure anymore that this easy dismissal of a changing climate as a factor in intense weather make sense."
Or maybe it's causing the hurricane lull we've experienced. No major hurricanes rated Category 3 or higher have struck U.S. soil during the past nine years. If we had had 4 or 5 cat 5 storms everyone would be sure it's due to global warming. Well, we've had no storms greater than Cat 2. Is that due to global warming?
Or maybe it's causing the hurricane lull we've experienced. No major hurricanes rated Category 3 or higher have struck U.S. soil during the past nine years. If we had had 4 or 5 cat 5 storms everyone would be sure it's due to global warming. Well, we've had no storms greater than Cat 2. Is that due to global warming?
1
@Phil - What about typhoons and cyclones? Or do we just consider hurricanes that make landfall in the US to be important?
2
From the National Center for Science Education. Inc:
More than three quarters of the American public accepts the reality of global climate change, according to a new poll. In the latest University of Texas at Austin Energy poll, 76% of respondents agreed that global climate change is occurring, while 14% disagreed and 10% were not sure. The level of agreement is the highest since the poll started asking the question in 2012.
There was a sharp divide along political lines: 90% of self-identified Democrats agreed and 3% disagreed that climate change is occurring, while only 59% of self-identified Republicans agreed and 29% disagreed. "Political ideology continues to be the single greatest determinant of Americans' views on climate change," commented the poll director Sheril Kirshenbaum.
The poll did not directly ask whether respondents attribute climate change to human activity. But it is suggestive that, among those who agree that climate change is under way, a majority selected deforestation, oil, and coal as significant or very significant contributing factors ("natural forces" was also offered).
The poll was conducted online between September 1 and 15, 2015, among
2019 U.S. residents age 18 and older. "Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population." The overall margin of error for the poll was +/- 3.1%.
More than three quarters of the American public accepts the reality of global climate change, according to a new poll. In the latest University of Texas at Austin Energy poll, 76% of respondents agreed that global climate change is occurring, while 14% disagreed and 10% were not sure. The level of agreement is the highest since the poll started asking the question in 2012.
There was a sharp divide along political lines: 90% of self-identified Democrats agreed and 3% disagreed that climate change is occurring, while only 59% of self-identified Republicans agreed and 29% disagreed. "Political ideology continues to be the single greatest determinant of Americans' views on climate change," commented the poll director Sheril Kirshenbaum.
The poll did not directly ask whether respondents attribute climate change to human activity. But it is suggestive that, among those who agree that climate change is under way, a majority selected deforestation, oil, and coal as significant or very significant contributing factors ("natural forces" was also offered).
The poll was conducted online between September 1 and 15, 2015, among
2019 U.S. residents age 18 and older. "Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population." The overall margin of error for the poll was +/- 3.1%.
10
If such a large percentage of Americans believe in Global Warming, why are the highways always jammed, particularly in Liberal areas like San Francisco, Los Angeles, Boston, New York and Washington. No matter how many roads are built, they are swamped by people in those cities driving their private automobiles. You would think if they had a care about Global Warming they might cut back. Air travel is also growing steadily and is at record rates. Airplanes burn enormous amounts of jet fuel and yet the same people who claim to believe in Global Warming keep flying. If so many Americans believed in Global Warming, you would think traffic jams would be a thing of the past and the airlines would be begging for customers. I think people tell pollsters they believe in Global Warming because that's what they think pollsters want to hear, but in fact they aren't willing to modify their behavior even a shred.
1
Why is the GOPer Lizard Brain retort that we need to go back into caves to live?
Exceedingly weak and unequivocal childish responses. You have lost this battle. Be an adult and acknowledge it.
Exceedingly weak and unequivocal childish responses. You have lost this battle. Be an adult and acknowledge it.
12
For the same reason that people who believe in Jesus Christ their saviour act with hate and malice towards others. People have a hard time putting their beliefs and values into their actions. When aligning your values and your actions is hard, don't expect much. That's why the goal has to be to make such changes easy....
5
As I expected, this has turned into a rant on climate change. Other than attack deniers, what are you going to do about it? China, India, and the rest of the second and third world don't care. A large segment of the first world does not care either. Some scientists believe we have already reached the tipping point which means the current conditions are here to stay.
Seriously, what are you going to do about it? Driving a Prius won't cut it.
Seriously, what are you going to do about it? Driving a Prius won't cut it.
6
We're going to shift from fossil fuels to wind, Solar, nuclear, and geothermal power.
The rest of the world cares a great deal because their agricultural areas and coastal populations are in as much if not more danger than are ours. The only people of influence who deny or pretend not to care are ideologues and vested interests in the "First" World.
The rest of the world cares a great deal because their agricultural areas and coastal populations are in as much if not more danger than are ours. The only people of influence who deny or pretend not to care are ideologues and vested interests in the "First" World.
18
Nuke a couple of big volcanos a year; the global dust from that ought to do it. And a lot of other things. Or, put everything into throwing megatons of reflective sulphur particles into orbit. Or, all sorts of other dire things.
Too dire? If we keep going the way we're going, "dire" may be all we've got and the future of the world may resemble a bad Saturday night disaster movie on the SyFy channel.
Too dire? If we keep going the way we're going, "dire" may be all we've got and the future of the world may resemble a bad Saturday night disaster movie on the SyFy channel.
Europe is leading the world in switching to wind power - Denmark, Ireland, Germany all have substantial power generation from wind. Bill Clinton has talked about plans to install wind farms in the US - we look forward to the day when the fossil fuel billionaires and countries no longer lead US energy policies, but we need that to start TODAY.
4
On some of the weather blogs, it has been noted that the core of this storm is so strong, it is well above the threshold for a cat 5, off the charts.
Some have asked, why isn't there then a cat 6 or even 7. The answer is, anything in and above cat 5 is pure destruction; there is no need, for public purposes, for any higher number because, at the core of such a storm, everything is destroyed.
This is an astoundingly powerful storm. We can be thankful, however, that it is also a compact one. But anyone and anything (except blast shelters) in the path of its eye will not survive.
Some have asked, why isn't there then a cat 6 or even 7. The answer is, anything in and above cat 5 is pure destruction; there is no need, for public purposes, for any higher number because, at the core of such a storm, everything is destroyed.
This is an astoundingly powerful storm. We can be thankful, however, that it is also a compact one. But anyone and anything (except blast shelters) in the path of its eye will not survive.
121
Regardless of whether it is caused or contributed to by global warming...regardless of the stupidity of the 8th Benghazi hearing...regardless of conservative dreams of a border wall...let's remember that these are our neighbors standing in the path of a catastrophe.
Let us stand ready to help them.
Let us stand ready to help them.
285
See my solutions to this problem above.
This does not look good at all. Patricia is going to do some substantial damage. Good luck to everyone in its path.
13
Hurricane Patricia is just one of many nails in the coffin of global warming denial. The planet's weather is unquestionably changing and, more to the point, changing in precisely the ways the climate scientists have been predicting now for decades. Temperatures are rising, records are being broken, patterns are shifting. If it isn't global warming then what? To deny what's happening is like a person in a flood denying that the waters are rising; well, if that's the case, then why are you soaked?
This particular hurricane exploded from a trifling tropical depression just a couple days ago to literally the most powerful hurricane in the recorded history of the Western Hemisphere. It sure is interesting that is happens now, of all times, when human activity is warming the atmosphere and increasing the energy supply for storms like these.
The deniers will eventually lose the argument. You can't debate reality forever. Nobody still argues that the Earth is the center of the solar system, or that foul air causes cholera. The only concern is whether their rearguard action will delay things long enough that once we finally take decisive steps to mitigate it will be too late. I sincerely hope, for my childrens' sake, that it won't be.
This particular hurricane exploded from a trifling tropical depression just a couple days ago to literally the most powerful hurricane in the recorded history of the Western Hemisphere. It sure is interesting that is happens now, of all times, when human activity is warming the atmosphere and increasing the energy supply for storms like these.
The deniers will eventually lose the argument. You can't debate reality forever. Nobody still argues that the Earth is the center of the solar system, or that foul air causes cholera. The only concern is whether their rearguard action will delay things long enough that once we finally take decisive steps to mitigate it will be too late. I sincerely hope, for my childrens' sake, that it won't be.
79
Oh brother. The chance this storm was caused by Human-made Global Warming is about equal to Space Aliens being the cause. I vote for the space aliens.
2
This is an el nino event.
3
Caused, no. Amplified, quite possibly.
2
Bernie Sanders has said that the gravest threat to the United States of America, the world really, is climate change. He is correct. Maybe we can put our concern toward a responsible politician who seems to be willing to actually deal with the pressing issues of the day, rather than smile, act smug, cast blames and brush off dandruff.
201
Susan you do realize you just described Sanders to a "t".
1
One of the things that undercuts support for Global Warming is when newspapers use expressions like the biggest hurricane "ever recorded" when the ability to record hurricanes over the Pacific Ocean only dates back a dozen years or so. Sure its a big hurricane. And scientists might not have recorded a bigger hurricane. But there might have been a bigger one 15 years ago that wasn't recorded. Newspaper weathermen have a whole series of grandious phrases that a deception such as "astronomically high tides" meaning relating to the cycle of the moon or "above normal" using the meaning of normal as average. While I agree that Global Warming is occurring, the blarney about weather published in newspapers is embarrassing and undercuts scientific credibility.
I'm also curious why rising ocean levels isn't reflected in real estate prices. You would think smart people would put their money where their mouth is an stop buying property along the coast in Cape Cod, California and Miami Beach, but actually land prices in those areas are soaring faster than anywhere else in the country. Do these smart investors know something that newspapers don't know, or are they ignorant fools?
I'm also curious why rising ocean levels isn't reflected in real estate prices. You would think smart people would put their money where their mouth is an stop buying property along the coast in Cape Cod, California and Miami Beach, but actually land prices in those areas are soaring faster than anywhere else in the country. Do these smart investors know something that newspapers don't know, or are they ignorant fools?
4
Patricia is the largest hurricane ever recorded in the Western hemisphere, which includes Atlantic hurricanes. And yes, these investors are fools because they think "it can't happen to me".
7
They are ignorant fools
4
I'm not sure where you got your information about keeping records of Pacific hurricanes for only the last 15 years. Depends on what kind of records you mean, I'd guess. But clearly this will be one of the strongest hurricanes in the Western Hemisphere, Which includes both the Pacific and the Atlantic, where records have been kept for longer than 15 years,
As to real estate: people don't always behave rationally when investing. In the canyons around Los Angeles there is a periodicity to mudslides of about every 22 years, yet people rebuild after a mudslide. Most people look at the potential for disaster and rationalize. And millionaires with multiple house don't much care about losing one.
As to real estate: people don't always behave rationally when investing. In the canyons around Los Angeles there is a periodicity to mudslides of about every 22 years, yet people rebuild after a mudslide. Most people look at the potential for disaster and rationalize. And millionaires with multiple house don't much care about losing one.
7
I don't think "touchdown" is a verb, yet.
4
And "the largest hurricane to ever assault the Western Hemisphere" is a bit presumptuous... since we've only kept track for a few hundred years.
As a decades-long lover of Puerto Vallarta, Yelapa, Boca de Tomatlan, and all the area around there: May the people there stay safe and healthy through this, and recover well after it. They do not deserve what they are about to go through.
54
If we are going to deal successfully with the serious issue of global warming, we must approach the issue with as much scientific understanding as possible. Therefore, it is rather disheartening to read here comments attributing this hurricane to global warming. While climate affects weather, they are distinctly different entities, and no scientist would point to a specific instance of a weather phenomenon and say it was caused by global warming.
If you equate weather and climate, not only are you wrong but, from a political perspective, you then open yourself up to climate change deniers every time there is a big blizzard and record low temperatures.
If you equate weather and climate, not only are you wrong but, from a political perspective, you then open yourself up to climate change deniers every time there is a big blizzard and record low temperatures.
6
Thanks for the voice of reason. And further, let's make sure to separate Human-Caused Global Warming from naturally occurring Global Warming, two very distinct events. One reoccurs about every 900 years give or take a few hundred years and the other is a lie.
Global warming is real, human caused global warming has never been proven but has become a religion to some lemmings.
Global warming is real, human caused global warming has never been proven but has become a religion to some lemmings.
1
Climate is the canvas; weather is the paint. It takes both to make a painting.
2
Ummm the Sun is the canvas and the paint. It does to us whatever it want's. Global warming is as natural an occurrence as the sun coming up tomorrow, so is the cool down.
Cantore got it right in seven words.
5
To all of those who are going to screech "climate change", please be aware that by doing so you legitimize the deniers who say the opposite after a snow fall or cold spell. Don't fall into that trap.
3
Climate change leads to more extreme weather around the world, regardless of local events like a snow storm. Deniers simply do not want to look at large-scale patterns.
79
Nothing will ever convince the propagandized deniers that climate change is real, nothing short of the oil and gas providers admitting it...lol.
It's time to stop pandering to the lowest common denominator!
It's time to stop pandering to the lowest common denominator!
29
I'm continually amazed at how calmly we quietly watch things get worse and worse and worse. Good luck Mexico, our hearts and prayers are with you, and hopefully our votes will soon eventually fall for someone committed to thoroughly investigating our escalating climate disaster with science and reason, even if it means that everything must change.
185
I think the verdict on escalating climate disasters is already in. I don't think any further investigation is needed. Most of what we need to know is available by googling 350.org., or any number of other science based websites.
4
Patricia is coming for El Chapo.
17
Brought to you by ExxonMobil! Because profit is all that matters.
157
I'm sure you don't drive a car or use fossil fuels like oil or natural gas to heat your home. Right? Or electricity to light your lamps produced by power plants that create their energy from coal. Right? And of course solar or wind power provides all your energy needs. Right?
5
Paul, just because an American does not live like a monk does not mean that they cannot speak out on global warming. Why don't you just cut it out. It is an extremely juvenile point of argument.
86
paid for by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology because only profit gives leverage
3
Oh no!
We all know that any and all evidence that climate is changing due to human activity is a cleverly concocted devilish lie, constructed by godless scientists, in order to defraud oil companies and the pawns they own within the U.S. Congress of the money God wants oil company executives to earn.
FOX News and the U.S. Republican Party say so, including ALL G.O.P. presidential candidates, so it has to be true.
More importantly, the corse Judeo-Christian-Islamic beliefs are still:
1) God created the perfect world;
2) Satan made the world imperfect;
3) All men have one job: To seek God and salvation or atonement before God destroy and re-create the new world,
so for anyone who actually believes in Judaism, Christianity or Islam, worrying about the inevitable, God-driven end of the world is a complete waste of time.
As Paul said in 1 Corinthians 15:12:
"Let us eat and drink for tomorrow we die..."
Unfortunately, Paul said we should avoid sex in order to seek God, so no more fooling around.
The end is always near.
We all know that any and all evidence that climate is changing due to human activity is a cleverly concocted devilish lie, constructed by godless scientists, in order to defraud oil companies and the pawns they own within the U.S. Congress of the money God wants oil company executives to earn.
FOX News and the U.S. Republican Party say so, including ALL G.O.P. presidential candidates, so it has to be true.
More importantly, the corse Judeo-Christian-Islamic beliefs are still:
1) God created the perfect world;
2) Satan made the world imperfect;
3) All men have one job: To seek God and salvation or atonement before God destroy and re-create the new world,
so for anyone who actually believes in Judaism, Christianity or Islam, worrying about the inevitable, God-driven end of the world is a complete waste of time.
As Paul said in 1 Corinthians 15:12:
"Let us eat and drink for tomorrow we die..."
Unfortunately, Paul said we should avoid sex in order to seek God, so no more fooling around.
The end is always near.
16
I hope it helps those who need snow and rain and is benevolent towards those who might otherwise be devastated by a storm of such dimensions.
4
If we could only direct these storms to Republican held areas, we might get some action on climate change mitigation.
225
Poll 100 people in South Carolina about that and see what answers you get. (Hint: Don't hold your breath for action on climate change mitigation.)
Like torrential, 1,000-year rains in South Carolina? Nothing changed. Nothing will change.
2
Ask yourself, if you care: did Republicans cause global warming? Does denial of global warming cause global warming?
No, obviously. So why so mad?
No, obviously. So why so mad?
Good luck to all the people in this storm's path.
We can expect storms like this as well as extremes in tempature change - the new new normal - because of global warming and can only hope that it is not too late to reverse it.
We can expect storms like this as well as extremes in tempature change - the new new normal - because of global warming and can only hope that it is not too late to reverse it.
181
The only things that affect our globe climate is the Sun, Earthquakes, Volcanos and Hurricanes. You could look it up! Also, have you ever heard of Earth's Magnetic Shift?
1
Actually, we've experienced a relatively low level of hurricane activity over the past decade. The last Category 5 storm was Andrew in 1992. Nasty storms have been happening a LONG time before global warming was an issue.
1
Phil, no one ever said that hurricanes are the result of global warming.
No one ever said that there were no storms before the current condition of global warming caused by human activity that shows up in a myriad ways too numerous to list here.
Don't put words in someone's mouth. No one ever said that there were not storms in the past. Why can't the opposition's argument be better than some juvenile attempt to make a point?
No one ever said that there were no storms before the current condition of global warming caused by human activity that shows up in a myriad ways too numerous to list here.
Don't put words in someone's mouth. No one ever said that there were not storms in the past. Why can't the opposition's argument be better than some juvenile attempt to make a point?
5
Shame on the American media for picking up this story a mere hours before the strongest recorded Hurricane in history makes landfall. Instead of drawing attention to a potentially catastrophic humanitarian crisis, NYTimes and other mainstream news agencies have focused on a government panel circus over a tragic, yet fairly minor, event that occurred over 3 years ago. Hurricane Patricia, a Category 5 storm with 200 mph sustained winds, is set to hit the Port of Manzanillo, the busiest port in Mexico and an an economic lifeline for Mexico City. Thanks to all things BENGHAZI and our ridiculous 2 year election cycle, the lack of media attention to Hurricane Patricia might just be an indirect cause of more needless casualties.
291
I share your feelings about the obsession with Benghazi and horse-race reporting on the presidential campaign, but there are good reasons for the late and sudden attention to Hurricane Patricia. On Wednesday night, Patricia was just a tropical storm with measured 65 mph winds; during the next day it grew in strength and was upgraded to a category 5 hurricane only Thursday night. Measured winds increased from 40 to over 185 mph in the space of about 36 hours, and this became the strongest hurricane in recorded history in the space of about one day.
141
Lee This storm jumped from a tropical storm to Cat 5 in 24 hours. This is highly unusual, unexpected, not predicted and the reason why it was not in the media
10
"Patricia, which transformed suddenly from a tropical storm on Tuesday evening into a Category 5 storm — the fiercest — overnight."
What about "overnight" doesn't Lee understand? The U.S. media were on this yesterday; much more important is the Mexican media.
What about "overnight" doesn't Lee understand? The U.S. media were on this yesterday; much more important is the Mexican media.
5
"Hurricane Patricia, the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere..."
Where is Senator Jim Inhofe, snowball in hand when we need him?
Where is Senator Jim Inhofe, snowball in hand when we need him?
222
From the little I have been able to read, it seems to me that the airports closed prematurely, and that absolutely no effort has been made to increase transportation out of the area.
4
I'd rather be sitting in a hurricane-proof hotel than a tin Lizzie airplane when it hits . . .
Patricia went from a tropical storm, with 40 mph winds, to a category 5 hurricane with 185+ mph winds in slightly more than 24 hours. Airports could not stay open in the face of winds now over 200 mph with the hurricane making landfall. All modes of transportation out of the area have been glutted with passengers leaving the area, but it seems that the rapidity with which this hurricane developed prevented the organization of a large scale evacuation.
5
There is no "hurricane-proof hotel." The hotels will be gone in the impact zone. There may be a concrete bunker in the ground- but the risk of drowning due to the storm surge hitting the bunker is high. There is no reason to stay in the impact zone, none. Better to get out by any means than pretend that there is a possibility of surviving this storm in the narrow impact zone.
2
Biggest. Worst. Hottest. Coldest. Most destructive. These are common headlines today as we head way north of 350 parts per million of carbon in the atmosphere. The climate crisis.
339
What will you give up in your lifestyle to cut emissions enough to lower temperatures worldwide? Easy to talk, tougher to put your money where your mouth is.
8
Giving up? Meat - one of the biggest negative climate factors. Also, going to electric car powered by my roof solar. I walk the talk, Paul.
23
Some of us have already cut out a considerable amount of those "necessities" to improve things. Are you one of them?
9
It sounds like there is an urgent need to get people out of the path of this storm. Can the US help in any way - using aircraft carriers, Coast Guard, National Guard, even buses - to evacuate people? Please? It reminds me of the days before Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans - there was a few days of a window where transports out were possible, and should have been used to prevent 3,000 deaths. Did we learn from that, and can we apply that knowledge now? Anybody? Anybody?
37
Are you now going to want to save every human being from the path of more and more man-made weather crises? Instead, how about focusing on the true problem: over-population --> maximum consumption of resources --> carbon emissions, etc. --> overall global warming and global climate change
15
No time. This storm went from tropical storm to Cat 5 in the span of a single day. One day.
I'm with Jim Cantore. Buena suerte a todo.
I'm with Jim Cantore. Buena suerte a todo.
19
The storm will hit tonight. How do you propose that U.S. aircraft carriers navigate to the west coast of Mexico in the next 8 hours? And the bus ride from the U.S. border to Acapulco takes about 15-20 hours. Where do you people come up with these crazy schemes? And why is it the responsibility of the U.S. to rescue Mexico from this potential natural disaster? They have tons of drug money, so why not ask the drug cartels to fly everyone out of the danger zone at their expense.
4
And yet so many here still refuse to believe that global warming exists and that humans are behind it.
19
You should be reminded that we have experienced much fewer hurricans recently than say, back in the times of the Spanish domination of the Caribbean in the 1500's and 1600's, when 5-10 major hurricanes a year were common, and many of which were cat 3, 4 and 5.
1
"1500's and 1600"? This is your retort? Claiming evidence from the 16th century? What weather service are you using for reference?
Don't you think that you are grasping at shorter and shorter straws?
Don't you think that you are grasping at shorter and shorter straws?
11
Climate is global, weather local. Are you including Pacific hurricanes and typhoons or just Atlantic hurricanes making landfall in the US?
Many North Americans, myself included, know Puerto Vallarta to be a magical place that we look forward to visiting every winter. My thoughts are with the great people of that region of Mexico as they cope with this hurricane, for which they've had much less time to prepare than is the case with other hurricanes, which develop more slowly.
240
I can't afford to travel to Puerto Vallarta, but I wish them well.
1
I had friends in Puerto Vallarta. mostly Wisharika Indians who worked in the kitchens of the 5-star hotels in 1973, but I also saw Jean-Paul Belmondo and Jacqueline Bissett coming in for dinner in one of these restaurants. I wish all Puerto Vallartans minimal damage!
Magical is the correct word for PV, and great people is another. I love it in PV, like a second home.
If we are going to deal successfully withe the serious issue of global warming, we must approach the issue with as much scientific understanding as possible. Therefore, it is rather disheartening to read here comments attributing this hurricane to global warming. While climate affects weather, they are distinctly different entities, and no scientist would point to a specific instance of a weather phenomenon and say it was caused by global warming.
6
Here we go again: we just need more scientific studies to see the noses on our faces.
17
Cat 5, yikes. Can we send in some jets to evacuate tourists, elderly, etc?
5
It is insane that Mexico has not ordered a complete evacuation of Puerto Vallarta.
The government of Mexico should have commandeered all available private bus lines to transport people to Guadalajara to ride out the storm.
The government of Mexico should have commandeered all available private bus lines to transport people to Guadalajara to ride out the storm.
4
And if it makes it to the Gulf of mexico and re-strengthens?
3
that is not possible. Gulf is on the other side. Would have to pass over hundreds of miles of land.
1
Josie, you need to look at the Weather Channel. What Vanessa suggests is exactly what they are predicting, with a hit on Houston and the Gulf Coast of Texas.
And 20+ thousands of feet of mountain range height. Hurricanes are highly localized, like a knockout punch. Their strength quickly weakens once they meet land, with only heavy rains remaining.
3
Signs of a very string, powerful El Nino event.
For comparison purposes 200 MPH is the equivalent of an F3 tornado. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/f-scale.html
What is very concerning is what direction that storm takes. If it continues north, depending on the jet stream, this could dump a great deal of rain, and snow in the south-western United States. Just today a powerful rain event has occurred here and now moving south and east. We received over 1" of rain here (1/15th of our annual total).
2015 is going down as the hottest year on record. And, it looks like, the El Nino event will be more powerful than 1997 (the last record El Nino).
So, if this is not global warming, it is very warm water contributing to this hurricane and feeding the El Nino.
In the next couple weeks, things could get interesting around here. And the next six months even more so. We may be measuring snow here in feet, both in the mountains and here in the Rocky Mountain Front range.
For comparison purposes 200 MPH is the equivalent of an F3 tornado. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/f-scale.html
What is very concerning is what direction that storm takes. If it continues north, depending on the jet stream, this could dump a great deal of rain, and snow in the south-western United States. Just today a powerful rain event has occurred here and now moving south and east. We received over 1" of rain here (1/15th of our annual total).
2015 is going down as the hottest year on record. And, it looks like, the El Nino event will be more powerful than 1997 (the last record El Nino).
So, if this is not global warming, it is very warm water contributing to this hurricane and feeding the El Nino.
In the next couple weeks, things could get interesting around here. And the next six months even more so. We may be measuring snow here in feet, both in the mountains and here in the Rocky Mountain Front range.
53
Snowfall in FEET?!! Gosh!
2
The silver lining if that's the case is that California will finally have some much-needed water. Let's hope they have a sustainable plan for what to do with it.
Comparing a 200 MPH hurricane to an F3 torando is like comparing a piper cub going 200 MPH to an Airbus 380. The velocity may be the same but the mass is orders of magnitude greater.
9
None Dare Call It Global Warming.
301
That's right Richard. And for good reason.
Then how about severe weather intensification?
7
No one storm is an indicator of global climate change, but the record number of Category 4-5 hurricanes (the biggest, most powerful) is a statistic that should get our attention.
35
Last night, I was up all night tracking Patricia. While I was not in danger, we might have gotten vicious winds and rain more torrential than the worst of our wet season. My area was directly in the path, about 100 miles inland. The best part is the mile-high plateau that I live on, which makes our climate ideal, and which, last night caused the hurricane to lose all its oomph.
I'm SO glad for the people along the coast that got the worst of it, because it seems nobody was killed! I was expecting a very high death toll. All I got was an hour or two of slightly torrential rain, coming in whooshes. I was trying to prepare for much worse.
Then it just stopped! Dead calm. By this morning, even last night's puddles had dried up.
But this kind of storm, though bizarre, could happen again, and that ought to give people in hurricane zones a lot to think about. Next time, there won't BE a plateau to stop it.
This storm will probably be studied in depth, because it was truly one of a kind, extremely bizarre. I'll be watching to find out what they'll learn.
Be glad for all of us who missed this bullet. Texas will get the remnants, but they won't be as bad as expected. I hope it won't be too bad up there.