Why Trump Is So Different From Carson and Fiorina

As I see it, Mr. Carson will have a problem when the question is asked of him where he stands on climate change. He says he is a Seventh Day Adventist. I read their doctrine of faith & it says Climate Change is caused by mankind. There go's Big Oil & the Koch Bro. Bye Dr. have a good day. Ed Sigman

Would people ask for a surgeon with no hospital experience, or desire someone who has never flown as their airline pilot?

"Tonight, your chef is a person here who has no cooking experience and indeed, has never before entered a kitchen."

Mrs. Fiorina's 'faring best among affluent and well-educated Republicans' sort of bewilders me.
You'd think they would best recognize what a pig's breakfast she made of HP.

Bottom line:

The GOP electorate will want the White House more than an outsider -- if it comes to that.

'nuff said

Trump seems honest. The rest don't.

Not too long ago, the NYT had articles about Mrs Fiorina, predicting she was the one one candidate to beat. Fast forward two weeks, and she's way down in the polls. The other NYT sweetheart, Mrs Clinton, was declared the winner by yet another cheerleader column today, they seem to come out daily now.

Yet Ben Carson and Donald Trump are still in the lead in the GOP, and Bernie Sanders has not faded.

Wonder when is the NYT going to take this race seriously, and not just a love fest for a few select candidates?

These 3 might not be around for the final selection. But they are doing their part to move the GOP further to the right than the Democratic players are to the left.

Has right wing media whipped up their electorate too far to the right to produce a candidate who will appeal to the critical independent voter?

" ...a majority of potential Republican voters say they would prefer a president without experience in Washington." So what happens after the non-politician's first term? They are now someone who who has 4 years of experience in Washington. Do they think Presidents should only serve one term and then be replaced by another novice? It is amazing how Americans get caught up in these tropes, not because they make logical, rational sense, but because they sound good and seem a simple solution to a complex problem. But rarely do these type of solutions have the desired result.

The Republicans have been promoting anti-government rhetoric for generations now, and at the same time have been doing their best to make government not work. While inflaming the passions of their single issue voters they have been instrumental in taking their jobs away and effecting a wealth transfer from the poor and middle class to the upper classes. At some point this split between the rich guys who used to run the show and the regressives they have ridden to victory after victory had to unravel, and here we are. No wonder Trump looks good to them.

it's hard to fathom why a party which has consistently deplored the current president's presumed lack of experience is going so whole-heartedly for people with no government experience at all.

Can America honestly afford another celebrity president? The present one has been a painful disaster for the country. With a clown and a compulsive liar the frontrunners it makes you wonder what America is coming to. It might still be the greatest nation on earth... but only just.

Immigration is the biggest issue in the world in 2015, and Trump has taken a courageously clear and patriotic stance on that issue.

Donald Trump is the only candidate who brought up ILLEGAL immigration as an issue, as well as bad, American-job killing trade deals. The Republicans and Democrats can whistle all they want past these issues but the American public is smarter and tired of the lies these politicians have fed them for years about representing their interests. And he isn't afraid of the elites, liberal media or 1%ers.

It's refreshing to hear him upset these groups that seem to be panicking that they no longer hold sway over their traditional followers.

I know that I won't be voting for that "triangulating" candidate Hillary and Bernie really isn't going to be given a chance. So Trump it is for me.

Trump occasionally says true things that official Republicans do not want touched, because Republicans have established Big Lies that cover up these true things. Democrats who dare to say any of these true things find their judgment, patriotism, and sanity questioned, and it is clear to Democrats that saying these things will precipitate an all-out war to delegitimize them. Fearful of losing such a war, Democrats banish those of their number who say such things from the party mainstream and the Republican Big Lies remain unchallenged within the mainstream.

Among the Big Lies are that the national debt is bankrupting us, the mortgage meltdown was the government's fault or unavoidable, and that the government is too big and incompetent.

The biggest Big Lie is that dubya kept us safe. Trump pointed out the fact that 9/11 happened on his watch. Trump also pointed out that dubya's Iraq adventure was a mistake, which means that our soldiers were not kept safe. The fact that dubya ignored warnings that al Qaeda was up to something has not yet been mentioned; anyone who brings this up is beyond the pale of respectable political discourse and provokes hysterical attacks, because it dissolves the Big Lie.

What is not hard to infer about what is not driving Trump's support is the utterance by Trump of anything insightful, knowledgeable or enlightened. I leave it to others to figure out what THAT means.

None of these people are electable.Their support is and inch deep and a mile wide(in the case of MS F. make that 1 inch by one foot). Come election time which ever dodo reaches the podium they will be made mincemeat of by a real debater.No hiding around racist remarks, simplistic answers, one syllable muttering, dubious fact, they are finished. GOP, your disdain for education , facts and reality is being to show.

Trump's attraction is that he kicks butt!! We are sick and tired of having a do-nothing wimp in the WH for last 7 years, while other world leaders have walked all over us. It is time for ultimatums that carry real consequences.

It isn't that these candidates have turned against the establishment so much as they are each rabble-rousers; political leaders who agitate the emotions, fears, prejudices, and ignorance of the lower, illiterate and uninformed socioeconomic classes in order to gain power and promote political motives.

Demagogues usually oppose deliberation and advocate immediate, forceful action to address a national crisis; they accuse moderate and thoughtful opponents of weakness.

Demagogues exploit a fundamental weakness in democracy; where ultimate power is held by the people. In the USA nothing stops the people from giving executive power to one who appeals to the lowest common denominator of a large segment of the population. It's up to reasonable folk to stop them.

Carly is out of it. It's Cruz & Trump telling lies to stir hysteria, exploiting crises to intensify popular support for a call to reckless action & increased authority; accusing moderate opponents of weakness or disloyalty to the nation.
While all politicians must make occasional small sacrifices of truth, subtlety, or long-term vision to maintain popular support, these candidates do this relentlessly and without self-restraint.

These candidates' differences are superficial, What they have in common is a constituency that is wild about the notion of tearing up what we have of government and installing a dictator oligarch who will give them freedom lost.

FAT CHANCE! In our great society they cannot have their way.

For all this analysis on why "outsiders" are so welcomed this time around, the answer is really so very simple. We everyday Americans are tired of being lied to and ignored, and next year will be the most obvious opportunity to enact some real change. Still, I find it ironic that, in their own ways, we are still being lied to by all three of these candidates, but at least they're paying attention to us and not pandering to the wealthy! (...or so we think.)

Alas, I will not be voting Republican this time around, but I do understand the initial reactionary emotions these candidates seem to have awakened. But a year is a long time from now, and the one thing I can count on is our short attention span. Reactions will fade and reason will prevail. In in the end, it will come down to who shows up to vote.

Just got the strong impression that Nate is the Hari Seldon of our time.

I think that the real reason behind Donald Trump's success is because he talks BIG or as I should say it HUGE, people like people who talk big, Donald Trump talks HUGE! That is why he gets away with saying these awful racist things.

So, why is Trump getting support from such a wide and diverse range of voters?
He isn’t doctrinaire. Everyone else in the race is politically and/or religiously doctrinaire.

He is not beholden to Republican party operatives. If, upon becoming more informed about the nuances of a situation, he changes his mind (and he does change his mind) he has no hanging party at the ready to prevent that.

As a businessman his default is to build, build the infrastructure on which the
economy and the life of the nation depends. With the mindless drive for reducing taxes, how much desperately needed infrastructure rebuilding has been stalled?

Not least, for every declaration he makes that is obnoxious to someone he also makes probably more of them that not only does the offended agree with but is actually for the first time hearing it plainly stated by a politician.

Those praying for his departure, seize on political history and his many flaws, and ignore his several traits ideal for this political year.

I am an independent and I hope that Trump gets the nomination.

The thing about "outsider" candidates is that in order to survive for one day in D.C., they would have to surround themselves by all of the usual suspects to help them lead. So they might personally be "outsiders", but their administration will be very "inside".

All three of these so-called "outsiders" are horrible candidates. They will all fall to the wayside by February. There is an enough substance for one candidate between the three of them .

If you've never held office before -- in some cases, rarely even bothered voting -- then of course, you preach that government is the problem. Outsider candidates don't make that so; neither do immature and petulant voters desperate to hang onto their own government benefits (Social Security etc) while trashing everyone else and trying to wreak havoc. Frankly, the Presidency is not an entry level position, and it's appalling these "outsiders" think it is.

Trump is here to stay. Carson is going to meltdown at some point and his supporters will go to Trump. On the Democrat side, I hope Sanders wins because it will be much easier for Trump to beat a crazy old socialist than Clinton.

I was interested in Trump until I saw his tax plan which was so blatantly skewed to wealthy business owners and their heirs that it made his whole platform a non starter. The great giveaway is what he is engineering and we should all pay attention and report on it more deeply. The pass through tax? Take a look, Trump wants to lower the bar way below earned income. Inheritance taxes? he wants to do away with them completely.

Why doesn't any reporter dig into Trump university? Clearly this parasitic for profit business for the uneducated masses was a scheme to collect federal funds and put thousands in debt with no chance of a resected degree, license or certificate that would enable anyone to even be a cleaner in a Trump hotel.

Why does the press give Trump a free ride?

There is no other issue than illegal immigration. That's it.
Because you either have a nation or you don't. A nation has borders and enforces them. A non-nation may have borders on a maps, but doesn't enforce them.
Nations such as Hungary, which is enforcing its border, will continue to exist. Others, such as Germany and Sweden, will soon find themselves out of the nation business.
One can agree or disagree with Mr. Trump's position on illegal immigration, but he is correct on one thing: without actual border enforcement, the U.S.A. will no longer exist.
The choice in 2016 will be to have a nation or not. Yes, it really is that clear cut.

If Fiorina is faring well with educated Republicans, these people aren't all that well educated. What Nate Cohn reveals is that the GOP is highly fractured and confused, probably caused by a demagogic Right Wing media. Statistical analysis of them is like looking at a swarm of gnats and guessing which way they're going to go.

In the end, as Nate reminds us, these people, or some of them, will show up at the polls. But God forbid if the voting is split between them. If this indecision is carried into the convention, it's going to be a wild ride.

Speaking of which, if Nate has called the differences between these three candidates, one question to ask of the polled population is, "If your candidate doesn't win, for whom would you vote?" This is critical because if the situation is so polarized that no one would vote for any of the others, then there will be no emerged front-runner. Just as these voters are looking for an outsider, they also may not accept compromise.

The commonality among all these three is that they are all outrageous to one who has a reasonable intellect. Carly Fiorina is not an incredible candidate. She's practicing what she was taught, to look you straight in the eye and tell you anything. That wouldn't pass in the schools that I attended. Carson is simply odd in selling an equally incoherent message, that, as Nate writes, appeals to the fundamentalist wing of the party. And Trump is a star creation of the media, and he manipulates it best.

When the attractive, sane Paul Ryan takes over as speaker, you'll see him become tremendously popular in Republican circles (I detest his politics, but I understand why he's going to be a savior for the Republicans). Because his predecessors and Congress have been so awful, he's going to look good compared to what was going on before (in personal life, people sometimes are married to miserable spouses, and then when they divorce and marry a normal person, the new spouse looks fabulous to them). That's the effect you'll see with Ryan, whom the media will bend over backwards to present kindly, given his forerunners. He's going to be a very bad thing that happens to us Democrats--wait and see.

Let us wait and see what happens in actual voting booths next year. It will not match the polls this year. What people say and what they do are very different. Such as "I am going to exercise everyday next year".

What is different this time is that there is no obvious candidate around whom the GOP establishment can rally. Last time it was obvious fairly early on that Mitt Romney was the establishment candidate and was eventually going to get the nomination. Jeb! would have been the choice this time but he is fading so fast he is unlikely to recover. The GOP establishment needs to pick an anti-Trump soon or it may end up having to support Hillary to deny Trump the presidency.

Trump's first phone call was to his good golfing buddy Bill Clinton when he decided to run his campaign.

Further... Clinton and former New York senator who had some say over policy that could have impacted Trump's vast business dealings, received donations from both him and son Donald Trump Jr. on separate occasions in 2002, 2005, 2006 and 2007, according to state and federal disclosure records.

Trump has also been generous with the Clinton Foundation, donating at least $100,000, according to the non-profit.

...Clinton wasn't the only Democratic beneficiary of Trump's wealth. Trump donated $5,000 to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and $20,000 to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in the 2006 cycle, effectively buoying the election prospects of Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, respectively.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodman/bernie-sanders-defeats-trump-b...

It is October 2015. The first primary election is in February. The nominee will be chosen in summer 2016. Everyone take a breath.

...and, my own two cents: while I suspect D Trump is having a wonderful time brandishing his brand, has surprised and amazed even himself with his early poll popularity, I just don't see him wanting to be President of the United States. Why would he?

Good, clear, well-written article. One suggestion, though: don't refer to someone as a "voter" unless you can guarantee with >90% certainty that they will actually cast a vote in the election in question. Or else start calling everyone who owns a pair of athletic shoes an athlete. Unfortunately, I can't think of a good substitute word--"pollee", maybe? "Survee"? The suffix says it all: being polled is passive, voting is active. They are 2 different, though overlapping, sets of people, and their responses to "outsiders" (and Trump in particular) are very different.

Trump is not an "outsider" regardless that he has not held office. The first person he called when he decided to run his campaign was his good golfing buddy, Bill Clinton.

People want outsiders when current policies aren't working for them. Free trade, health care, immigration, etc. have hammered the Middle Class. Endless unwinnable wars haven't helped, either.

Try making that case to the Morning Joe crew Nate. They get downright hostile when anyone questions the veracity of polls showing these three leading the field. Especially Trump. It is almost as though Scarborough and crew have become members of the Trump cult of personality.

I'm becoming increasingly convinced that Trump isn't really running for Pres, but that he is engaged in a guerrilla marketing campaign to promote his business empire. I'm sure he's very happy with the results so far given the predictable media who give him more airtime and column inches than anyone else.

As a voter who will most likely vote for the democratic candidate next year, I will freely admit that if forced to vote for one of the current republican candidates, I would cast my vote for Donald Trump.

The Donald might be 100% wrong about certain issues, but he's actually correct when it comes to a host of other issues; with that being said, every other current republican candidate is 100% lockstep wrong about everything.

"That’s a common pattern, in which candidate preference drives the answers to issue questions rather than — as much analysis assumes — the other way around."

This is such an important general point, beyond this article alone. Can you forward this to all the other day-to-day political reporters at the time? Seriously? So much campaign coverage and especially coverage of public opinion polling confuses this, but its an incredibly important distinction.

Polling showing that 43% of Americans support some complicated policy proposal X (financial reform, cap and trade, etc.), is not actually very informative about anything other than that partisanship is a thing that exists. Most Americans have no strong opinions about complicated policy proposals on any particular issue -- other than people who work in directly affected industries, the general public just doesn't have the necessary information or expertise to evaluate those proposals one way or the other and they're just too busy dealing with their lives to have informed opinions. But they are good at taking cues from parties/leaders that they already support. So if Elizabeth Warren or Barack Obama comes out publicly very strongly in favor of X, liberals will start answering questions in favor and conservatives will start answering against. The attitudes about policy positions measured on the survey are usually OUTCOMES of the partisanship, not causes of it. Reporters miss this over and over and over and over...

As a voter the most attractive quality of Mr. Trump is that he is a successful builder and will help to build decaying American infrastructure. He is good with money and does not want to waste it like candidates as obvious with campaign of other candidates. His poor grasp of foreign affairs may be a plus because he will be reluctant to get entangled in quagmires as his current statements indicate.

Captain Clueless and Dr. Demento, both Viet Nam draft dodging cowards, talking tough with the lives of other American's children. It's republican thing.
Ms. Failorina, drove a Silicon Valley icon into the ground, took five years to pay her last campaign staff and vendors, hallucinates videos on demand.
Creme de la crème no doubt.

The real delusional's are the republican voters who believe an outsider with zero government experience, can change Washington, or govern effectively.

These early polls actually do not bode well for these anti-establishment candidates. The public will grow tired with them as more information comes out. The long runway inherent now in running for President makes the distinctive interesting early, but leads to gaffs (or truths that come out) that eventually extinguish most of their candidacies. I can't see the public going for: 1.) Trump as he wears thin over time; 2.) Fiorina as she has a terrible reputation within the businesses she ran seeming rather small minded and harsh; and 3.) Carson as he has already shown himself to be completely out of touch and insensitive to nearly every group other than his core supporters. I would look toward the Rubios or Kasichs in the long run as they would play better to the public at large.